June 18, 2013
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THT Forecasts Articles
Following are the one hundred most recent articles for the category THT Forecasts .
06/17/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/17/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 12, Vol. Iby Jack Weiland
06/17/2013: 30th anniversary: Bob Welch does it allby Chris Jaffe
06/17/2013: The Hot Seatby Scott Strandberg
06/17/2013: Red Line doubleheaders (part I)by Chris Jaffe
06/14/2013: The daily grind: 6-14-13by Brad Johnson
06/14/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/14/2013: 18 again!by Shane Tourtellotte
06/14/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 11, Vol. IIIby Karl de Vries
06/14/2013: Traders Corner: Oakland Elixir, V is for Victorby Jonah Birenbaum
06/14/2013: Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Amos Otisby Bruce Markusen
06/13/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/13/2013: The daily grind: 6-13-13by Brad Johnson
06/13/2013: The clutchiest hitter of all?by Carl Aridas
06/13/2013: The all-decade team: the ‘50sby Richard Barbieri
06/12/2013: Closer watchby Karl de Vries
06/12/2013: The daily grind: 6-12-13by Brad Johnson
06/12/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/12/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 11, Vol. IIby Jack Weiland
06/12/2013: Helping their own causeby Shane Tourtellotte
06/12/2013: Hub fans bid Kid redoby Frank Jackson
06/11/2013: The daily grind: 6-11-13by Brad Johnson
06/11/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/11/2013: Call-up season is upon usby Jeff Moore
06/11/2013: THT Awardsby John Barten
06/11/2013: 10th anniversary: Houston no-hits the Yankeesby Chris Jaffe
06/11/2013: The Steel City power outage of 1917by Dave Vocale
06/10/2013: The daily grind: 6-10-13by Brad Johnson
06/10/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/10/2013: NL East division update: June editionby Brad Johnson
06/10/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 11, Vol. 1by Karl de Vries
06/10/2013: When a $9 ticket costs $20by Chris Jaffe
06/10/2013: The Hot Seatby Scott Strandberg
06/09/2013: Visualization: the 2013 MLB draftby Dan Lependorf
06/08/2013: Four teams, 38 innings, one historic dayby Shane Tourtellotte
06/07/2013: The daily grind: 6-7-13by Brad Johnson
06/07/2013: Jose Canseco’s independents dazeby Frank Jackson
06/07/2013: Roster Doctor: Two to sell highby Jonah Birenbaum
06/07/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 10, Vol. IIby Karl de Vries
06/06/2013: The daily grind: 6-6-13by Brad Johnson
06/06/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/06/2013: The Roto Grotto: catching up with pitcher statsby Scott Spratt
06/05/2013: Ignoring suspension noiseby Derek Ambrosino
06/05/2013: Does MLB have a case this time?by Eugene Freedman
06/05/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/05/2013: The daily grind: 6-5-13by Brad Johnson
06/05/2013: Currently historic: So many walks and strikeoutsby Jason Linden
06/05/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 10, Vol. Iby Jack Weiland
06/05/2013: Three True Outcomes too common?by Alex Connors
06/05/2013: BOB: Spring training war updateby Brian Borawski
06/04/2013: The Verdict: not all trades are created equalby Michael Stein
06/04/2013: The daily grind: 6-4-13by Brad Johnson
06/04/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/04/2013: 25th anniversary: three-run walk-off errorby Chris Jaffe
06/04/2013: Revisiting pre-arb contractsby Greg Simons
06/04/2013: Ike Davis and comfort at the plateby Matt Filippi
06/04/2013: The Hot Seatby Scott Strandberg
06/04/2013: Astros set to repeat their draft philosophyby Jeff Moore
06/04/2013: THT Awardsby John Barten
06/03/2013: The daily grind: 6-3-13by Brad Johnson
06/03/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
06/03/2013: AL West: pretty much what we thought going inby David Wade
06/03/2013: 10th anniversary: Sosa’s corked batby Chris Jaffe
06/03/2013: What WPA can tell usby Chris Jaffe
05/31/2013: Traders Corner: Conundrums Kemp and otherwiseby Jonah Birenbaum
05/31/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
05/31/2013: Shut ‘em out, hit a home run: “Pappas games”by James Gentile
05/31/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 9, Vol. IIIby Jack Weiland
05/31/2013: Card Corner: 1973 Topps: Joe Pepitoneby Bruce Markusen
05/30/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
05/30/2013: Lohse goes for pitching history tonightby Chris Jaffe
05/30/2013: Trapped in the minors: Dean Annaby John Kochurov
05/30/2013: The Roto Grotto: z-scores appliedby Scott Spratt
05/29/2013: On Jon Heyman and the Oakland Coliseumby Dan Lependorf
05/29/2013: Job opening at Bloomberg Sportsby Dave Studeman
05/29/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
05/29/2013: BOB: A new chapter in the spring training warsby Brian Borawski
05/29/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 9, Vol. IIby Karl de Vries
05/29/2013: Triage in the Bronxby Shane Tourtellotte
05/28/2013: And That Happenedby Craig Calcaterra
05/28/2013: National League West: Questions, answered?by Steve Treder
05/28/2013: Pay me now, or pay me laterby Greg Simons
05/28/2013: Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 9, Vol. Iby Jack Weiland
05/28/2013: The Hot Seatby Scott Strandberg
05/28/2013: Who’s behind the dish?by Noah Woodward
05/28/2013: THT Awardsby John Barten
05/28/2013: Amazingly, the Pirates may not need Gerrit Coleby Jeff Moore
05/26/2013: 20th anniversary: homer off Jose Canseco’s headby Chris Jaffe
05/25/2013: Joey Votto’s bid for historyby Chris Jaffe
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July 29, 2012
Oliver updates on holdDue to computer issues, the THT Forecast updates have not generated since Thursday. Know that we are working diligently to get this issue resolved, and we will post an update here at THT Live when THT Forecasts are back online.
Posted by: THT Staff
March 11, 2012
A better ERA projectionThe THT Forecasts have been as good or better than any at projecting the rates of home runs, walks and strikeouts allowed by pitchers. However, recent third-party tests have shown that we have fallen short in projecting pitcher's runs allowed, which is the most important number. After conducting a THT roundtable discussing possible solutions, and long hours coding, most modifications are now in effect.
I had been calculating runs allowed based on a non-linear formula that uses the wOBA allowed by each pitcher. This has shown to be accurate at all scoring levels, and I am still confident in its ability to project the number of runs created by the actions of the batters against each pitcher. However, that is not the only way that a pitcher can control run scoring.
The extent to which a pitcher can or cannot control base stealing is the largest factor. I have tabulated the steals, caught stealing by catchers, pickoffs, pickoff caught stealings and pickoff errors by each pitcher, assigning an extra 0.25 runs for each steal and 0.50 runs for each pick error more than expected, and a reduction of 0.5 runs and an extra out for each additional pickoff and caught stealing.
Likewise, a pitcher will reduce his projected runs allowed by 0.25 with every steal less than expected. Soon, wild pitches and balks above or below expected will be handled in the same manner.
Groundball pitchers and those with fewer walks and strikeouts will get more grounded into double plays per opportunity. GIDP is not included in the wOBA calculation, but I now assign a 0.5 run change and an out for each GIDP more or less than expcted. Pitchers with a higher groundball rate also suffer more batters reached on error, but those additional errors lead to a higher percentage of unearned runs. Soon, I will adjust the unearned run percentage for the pitcher's groundball rate.
The ERA baselines also have been adjusted. Previously, I was using a single value of the MLB averages from the beginning of Gameday in 2005 until the current date, but the accuracy of this has been called into question as the offense production in the major leagues has dropped over each of the past two seasons. The baseline MLB wOBA and runs scored per plate appearance are now based on a weighted mean of the same past three seasons that the individual projections are constructed from.
The last major item is whether the pitcher is performing as a starter or reliever. My comparison of the performances of pitchers who worked in both roles confirm research by Tango that showed that pitchers have a strikeout rate about 17 percent higher and a home run rate 17 percent lower when in relief, while the walk rate does not change.
Tango also found a reduction of the batting average on balls in play of about 17 percent in relief, compared to starting, but my research found a difference about half of that. When each of those components are adjusted, depending on their mix of skills, pitchers had starting and relief ERA projections that varied from about 0.40 to 0.80 runs.
These adjustments enable me to convert statistics compiled in relief to an equavalent starting pitcher performance before league conversion factors are calculated.
After the projections are completed—and customized to each pitcher's parent club's home ballpark—a final projection is created that is a weighted mean of the starting and relieving projections. For pitchers who work 100 percent in either role, there will be trivial changes in their projections. However, this gives us the flexibility to customize projections when pitchers are transitioning to a new role.
For example, Daniel Bard has had a 2.88 ERA over three years in the majors, 3.33 last year, working strictly as a reliever, but his 2012 projection as a starting pitcher is 3.96, reflecting the lower expected level of performance.
Posted by: Brian Cartwright
February 20, 2012
Rotovalue tests 2011 batting projectionsGeoff Buchan has posted the results of his testing of the 2011 batting projections from several leading sites, our own THT Forecasts (aka Oliver), Baseball Prospectus' Pecota, Steamer, Rorovalue, and Marcel. I am pleased to say that, according to this set of tests, that Oliver had a very good year. Check out Geoff's article here
Posted by: Brian Cartwright
February 19, 2012
Park factor fix for ForecastsThe Forecasts update posted yesterday, Feb. 18, will have different numbers for every player from the week before, as I discovered a logic error in my code which was preventing park factors from being applied to each player's batting and pitching projections. Recently published Forecasts were park neutral but now are as intended, specific to the player's team.
Major league players' projections are customized to the weighted mean of all the ballparks his team played in the previous season. Projections for players in the minor leagues are based on their parent major league team. Schedules for 2012 may now be downloaded from mlb.com, and as soon as those are imported into the Oliver database, I will use the number of games scheduled to be played in each ballpark in the coming season instead of the previous.
I do not expect using 2012 instead of 2011 to produce major changes in the projections, but some players who play in extreme parks did see sizable differences when their park factors were correctly applied. Troy Tulowitzki solidified his rank as the overall best position player; playing half his games in Coors Field inflates his batting projection from a park neutral .285/.358/.506 to .302/.371/.544. On the other end of the ballpark spectrum, half a season in Petco Park (as well as a disproportionate number in parks such as Dodger Stadium and AT&T Park) drop Chase Headley's projection from .283/.353/.408 to .269/.342/.383.
I apologize for any inconvenience and welcome any comments from subscribers who suspect something may be amiss. Sometimes we'll have an explanation, but other times we have been able to catch errors. As a result of Matt Swartz's testing at FanGraphs of several projections, including Oliver, I am currently at work on some improvements on projecting ERA, as well as an existing project to be able to project a pitcher as either a starter or a reliever for those times when a player's role changes.
Posted by: Brian Cartwright
February 02, 2012
THT Forecasts - 2012 fantasy price guidesIn addition to the Oliver database, reports, projections, and watch lists, THT Forecasts also has a fantasy price guide that you can customize with your league specifications (although note that not all stat categories you can imagine are present yet; we'll work on that!).
Also, the fantasy price guides are updated as the season progresses and new data are added to the Oliver database, thus changing the projections for the remainder of the season to assist you with waiver wire pick-ups, trades, etc.. You can then return to your price guide at the end of the season to evaluate players and see what they should have been worth before the season started (thus best to transfer and save your pre-season fantasy price guide for comparison).
Note that the fantasy price guide lists players according to their dollar values for an auction draft, but the rankings can still be applied to a snake draft. For a league that uses a points structure, you can switch to the customizable reports, download and open them with your favorite spreadsheet, and then include your stat-cat modifiers to calculate point totals for the players.
Finally, using Yahoo! Fantasy Baseball's default league auction and roto settings, here are the top projected offensive players:
Pos Players 2012 Value C Mike Napoli $34 1B Albert Pujols $55 2B Dan Uggla $30 3B Jose Bautista $40 SS Troy Tulowitzki $32 OF Matt Kemp $57 OF Mike Stanton $47 OF Ryan Braun $44 Util Miguel Cabrera $52 Util Joey Votto $46THT Forecasts is available for the 2012 season, with Brian Cartwright's Oliver database providing over 9000 projections for major and minor leaguers. Visit Forecasts today to learn more and sign up for only $14.95!
Posted by: Greg Tamer
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