Tuesday, June 02, 2009
College World Series odds: Pre-Super Regionals
Posted by Jeff SackmannThe final 16 is set. As much fun as underdog stories can be, we don't get that many of them. Top seeds won 13 of the 16 regionals, and one of the three "underdogs" was Virginia, which should've been the favorite anyway. Arkansas got past Oklahoma, and Southern Miss—the only No. 3 seed to advance—overcame Georgia Tech.
The NCAA has already announced the hosts of the eight Super Regionals. No real surprises, especially since six of the eight national seeds advanced, and those teams were guaranteed to host the next round no matter what. I bring it up just as a reminder that home-field is important—more so in college baseball than in the pros. My simulator uses the assumption that, given equal talent levels, home teams win at a 56 percent rate. Thus, the Texas-TCU and North Carolina-East Carolina matchups could be heavily influenced by the venue. Hosts are favored to win each of the eight Super Regionals with the exception of (you guessed it) the Virginia-Mississippi contest in Oxford.
Keep reading for the full report.
Team Omaha FinalTwo Champ Texas 59.0% 13.4% 5.9% Texas Christian 41.0% 7.4% 2.9% Southern Mississippi 34.1% 2.9% 0.8% Florida 65.9% 9.6% 3.5% Arizona State 67.0% 31.3% 18.6% Clemson 33.0% 10.2% 4.7% East Carolina 41.9% 9.8% 4.2% North Carolina 58.1% 15.4% 7.2% Cal State Fullerton 71.7% 25.0% 14.4% Louisville 28.3% 5.1% 2.0% Florida State 67.8% 9.9% 3.9% Arkansas 32.2% 2.4% 0.7% Virginia 69.6% 31.1% 19.6% Mississippi 30.4% 6.0% 2.3% Rice 36.4% 5.9% 2.3% Louisiana State 63.6% 14.7% 7.2%
Jeff Sackmann is the creator of MinorLeagueSplits.com. With Kent Bonham, he founded CollegeSplits.com. Jeff and Kent blog about college baseball and the draft, and you can follow them on Twitter for bite-sized snacks of minor league and college stats. Jeff also has an email address.