The Hardball Times http://www.hardballtimes.com/main Baseball. Insight. Daily. en evan.brunell@gmail.com Copyright 2010 2010-02-09T23:23:20+00:00 Looking at Todd Wellemeyer, Jason Pridie, Mark Hendrickson and Willy Taveras (yes, things are slow) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/looking-at-todd-wellemeyer-jason-pridie-mark-hendrickson-and-willy-taveras-/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/looking-at-todd-wellemeyer-jason-pridie-mark-hendrickson-and-willy-taveras-/
Cardinals pitcher Todd Wellemeyer
Todd Wellemeyer is coming off an injury-marred season with the Cardinals where he posted a 5.89 ERA and 5.21 xFIP. The year prior, he was considered another one of Dave Duncan's success stories, but had been essentially the same pitcher (looking at FIP/xFIP) from 2006-2008. He's not someone who will ever hold down a permanent job, but his 90+ mph fastball will keep getting him looks despite his poor control. Any team that can sign him to a minor league contract will be getting a league-average pitcher who can start and relieve. As depth in Triple-A, you can have much worse pitchers.

Jason Pridie is a slap-stick hitter who doesn't even really carry a stick capable of slapping. He's a speedy, defensive outfielder who marked down a .306 wOBA in Triple-A for Minnesota. Upon the signing of Orlando Hudson, Pridie was designated for assignment at which point the Mets claimed him off waivers. Pridie isn't a complete waste of a 40-man roster spot, but shouldn't be looked at as anything more than a fifth outfielder. The Mets have some question marks in that area, so their acquisition of Pridie makes sense. It would still be a surprise to see him open up the season on the 25-man roster, but given these are the Mets...

Mark Hendrickson inked a one year, $1.4 million ($1.2 million in 2010, $200,000 buyout or $1.2 million team option for 2011) contract with the Orioles, returning as a swingman. The former pro basketball player has an even 5.00 ERA for his career, but xFIP shows that his true talent value is around a 4.50 ERA, and has been hurt by an above-average BABIP most of his career. He's struggled to establish himself as a starting pitcher but may have found his calling at age 35 as a relief pitcher. He posted a 3.44 ERA along with a 37/14 K/BB ratio out of the bullpen this past year. While his 4.37 ERA over 11 starts was also strong, his track record indicated that he wasn't cut out to start.

Willy Taveras was acquired last week by the Athletics along with infielder Adam Rosales in exchange for infielder Aaron Miles and a player to be named later. With the release, the Athletics have essentially "bought" Rosales for about $1 million, which I think is a master stroke. Players with 0-6 years of service time (and particularly 0-3 years) almost always provide a return on investment given their low base salary and talent strong enough to make the majors. Given the team saves so much money on these 0-3 players, I've always wondered why more teams don't just go and buy these players outright. Just make the money back on production on the field. In any event, Taveras will latch on somewhere as a backup outfielder. Don't be surprised if Rosales outproduces Taveras in 2010.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Evan Brunell 2010-02-09T23:23:20+00:00 Give Chien-Ming a chance http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/give-chien-ming-a-chance/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/give-chien-ming-a-chance/ Chien-Ming Wang is going to make a decision on his (most likely) new team within seven to ten days, I decided to once again use Fangraphs' new splits data and see if there was anything that stuck out with Wang. Here are his xFIP's from 2005-2009, first versus righties and then versus lefties:

2005: 3.97, 4.46
2006: 3.94, 4.42
2007: 3.68, 4.76
2008: 3.49, 5.00
2009: 3.53, 5.54

That's 4.69 against lefties for his career and 3.78 versus righties. Although Wang has improved his performance against right-handed hitters throughout his career, he has gotten worse against lefties. While this is unsurprising for a groundball pitcher, the jump in xFIP (1.12 difference in '06 and '09) is pretty startling. Let's take a look at Wang's batted ball data versus lefties, specifically GB/FB ratio and LD%:

2005: 2.51, 11.8%
2006: 2.84, 17.0%
2007: 2.33, 21.8%
2008: 2.26, 20.5%
2009: 2.00, 25.8%

So there has clearly been an increase in the quality of the ball off the bat of lefties against Wang. However, let's not forget that Wang only through 20.1 innings against left-handers last year. That tells you pretty much nothing. While Wang may be declining against lefties, he probably is more around a ~5.00 xFIP pitcher against them, which would, combined with his skill against righties, make him a valuable pitcher relative to his asking price. Finally, here are his projected FIP's for 2010:

CHONE: 3.94
MARCEL: 4.29
Bill James: 3.81
Fans (24): 3.94

Not bad. Considering Wang has also consistently outperformed the league average on HR/FB% (other than his outlier '09 season), Wang could conceivably be a ~2.3 WAR pitcher next year if he recovers fully from his injury. That issue is a whole other story, but for now, non-injury Chien-Ming Wang is looking like a bargain.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Pat Andriola 2010-02-09T21:11:55+00:00 Job openings in Cleveland http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/job-openings-in-cleveland/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/job-openings-in-cleveland/

Title: Data Architect - Baseball Analytics


Location: Cleveland, OH

Description: The Cleveland Indians are currently scouting for a Data Architect to work in our Baseball Operations Department. This individual will report to the Director of Baseball Operations while assisting both the Baseball and Information Systems Departments.

This individual will be a technical resource to the baseball analytics department, taking on increasing responsibility to design, implement, and manage the Baseball Department’s information architecture.

Responsibilities include:

• Creating data models, developing processes for extraction, transformation, cleansing, and loading a variety of internal and external data sources;
• Creating and maintaining business rules and metadata to ensure data consistency, designing and implementing a data warehouse of baseball information.
• Other responsibilities may include, but are not limited to, statistical analysis and baseball research, application and web development, and user interface and data visualization design.

Candidates must possess:
• A Bachelor’s degree (or higher) in Computer Science or a related field, along with demonstrated work experience designing and managing data warehouses, creating OLAP cubes, and using reporting tools.
• Experience with Oracle (preferred) or another major database system including advanced knowledge of SQL and/or MDX is required.
• Experience with any of the following are highly desirable: database administration, ETL and/or BI tools, application development in .NET and/or Java.
• Proficiency in statistical analysis software packages (R, STATA, SAS, SPSS) is desirable, as is familiarity with current baseball research and analytics.

For more information or to apply, visit http://www.indians.com/jobs , Requisition Number 10-0025. Interested candidates must apply online to be considered.



Title: Baseball Analyst


Location: Cleveland, OH

Description: The Cleveland Indians are currently scouting for a Baseball Analyst to work in our Baseball Operations Department. This individual will report to the Manager of Baseball Analytics while assisting both the Baseball and Information Systems Departments.

Responsibilities include:

• Performing advanced statistical analysis on large volumes of baseball-related data and implementing predictive models to aid in departmental decision making.
• Creating reports, charts, tables, graphics, and other tools to deliver information to staff in concise and readable formats;
• Advising and assisting other analysts and staff on proper selection and implementation of techniques in statistical analysis and data mining;
• Monitoring developments in statistical fields to identify new algorithms or methods applicable to baseball problems;
• Evaluating published sabermetric research to ascertain its value and applicability to internal models and processes.
• Other projects may be assigned consistent with departmental needs and candidate skills.

Candidates must possess:
• A Master’s degree (or higher) in Statistics, Operations Research, Mathematics, Computer Science, or a related quantitative field.
• This individual must possess expert knowledge of modern statistical analysis and/or machine learning techniques.
• Significant experience with R, STATA, SPSS, SAS, or similar software is required.
• Strong knowledge of baseball, particularly in sabermetrics is also required.
• Experience with a database system such as Oracle or SQL Server, and proficiency with SQL is highly desirable.
• Demonstrated ability to advise, consult, mentor, or teach others is desirable.
• The ability to communicate complex concepts at an appropriate level to colleagues possessing a wide range of backgrounds is also important.

For more information or to apply, visit http://www.indians.com/jobs , Requisition Number 10-0024. Interested candidates must apply online to be considered.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Dave Studeman 2010-02-09T19:27:05+00:00 APBA manager wanted http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/apba-manager-wanted/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/apba-manager-wanted/
The NEL is a basic game APBA league that is just about to start its 50th season. We use the 1986 version of the boards (the white boards) with very few changes, but we do have a computerized version of the game that allows an 8-game series to be played, complete with stat compilation, in an hour or two. We hold an annual convention (this year in late March in New Jersey), and virtually every league member attends virtually every convention. The available franchise has one of the best rosters in the league, including such names as Johan Santana, Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Adam Wainwright, Ian Kinsler, Jose Reyes, Kevin Youkilis, Mariano Rivera, etc.

Famous former NEL managers include Bob Fraser, APBA's former general manager; Tom Heiderscheit, the former editor of the APBA Journal; and the late Bill Linn, the long-time author of "Linn on Leagues" in the Journal.

If you're interested in learning more about the NEL, please email Woody Studenmund at woody@oxy.edu, and I'll send you a packet of information about the league.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Dave Studeman 2010-02-09T19:23:16+00:00 Are fastballs actually getting faster? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/are-fastballs-actually-getting-faster/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/are-fastballs-actually-getting-faster/ FanGraphs a lot. It seems that every month, owner David Appelman rolls out some new shiny improvement to the site. Just recently, he gave users the ability to look up splits. But while everybody has been sorting and looking things up, something else has piqued my interest.

I've actually been meaning to look into this for a while, but it was the two articles Matthew Carruth posted on Monday that inspired me to finally do this. I want to look at the pitch speeds displayed on the FanGraphs player pages, which are provided by Baseball Info Solutions.

Over the course of this past season, I noticed a change in fastball velocity for a large number of pitchers. Though my evidence was anecdotal, there seemed to be a clear trend of increasing fastball velocity, at least from 2008 to 2009. I decided to look at all pitchers who threw at least 90 innings in a given year, and simply find the average velocity of every pitcher's fastball. Why 90? Because I said so. The identities of the pitchers in the sample change from year to year, but I don't think that changes much in this case. Here is the average fastball velocity for pitchers who fit the criteria:
2002: 89.47 mph
2003: 89.31 mph
2004: 89.67 mph
2005: 89.44 mph
2006: 89.88 mph
2007: 89.64 mph
2008: 90.13 mph
2009: 90.67 mph

That's an increase of one full mile per hour in just two years. I don't think that there's some new wave of pitchers who suddenly started throwing really hard the last few years. More likely, it's a problem with BIS's data collection. From 2002 (the first year this data is available for) through 2007, the average fastball velocity remained between 89.31 mph and 89.88 mph, a difference of just .57 mph. Said differently, the average fastball velocity from 2002-2007 was 89.57. In just two years, that number increased to 90.67.

I looked at the same thing for other pitches, and there wasn't much of anything to be found. Curveballs, changeups, and sliders didn't show any clear trend like the fastballs did. This leads me to believe that it's not a problem with the radar guns they're using, or we'd see a similar trend across all pitches. I have another theory, however. It's possible that pitch f/x data, which became available throughout the league in 2008, is influencing what BIS puts into its database. Maybe BIS saw that pitch f/x was reading pitches at faster speeds, and decided to "catch up."

I don't really have an answer for why this is happening, and I only half-believe my pitch f/x theory. If someone has an explanation for why this sudden change is happening, I'd love to hear it.


Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Dan Novick 2010-02-09T17:50:23+00:00 The stats we target http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-stats-we-target/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/the-stats-we-target/
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Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Paul Singman 2010-02-09T12:29:57+00:00 Even the duds have studs http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/even-the-duds-have-studs/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/even-the-duds-have-studs/
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Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Joshua Fisher 2010-02-09T10:30:38+00:00 How do you spot a lefty masher? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how-do-you-spot-a-lefty-masher/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how-do-you-spot-a-lefty-masher/ splits data on their site. Lefty/righty splits are something that fascinate me. Ever since I was a little kid, I was awed by the idea of having a "lefty masher" on the bench, just in case an opposing manager brought in a LOOGY, allowing you to pull a quick-one and play for the extra-base hit. However, lefty/right analysis has advanced since my adolescence, and I think this post from MGL is a must read for what I'm talking about. In it he says:

IOW, how a batter does against RH pitchers informs us on how he will likely do against LH pitchers and vice versa. Why? Because there is not much of a spread in true platoon splits among ML baseball players yet there is a large spread in overall true hitting talent among ML baseball players. So if we see a large platoon split, like for a player like [Ryan] Howard, it is likely a fluke. If a player does really well versus RH pitchers but terrible against LH pitchers, both the “really well” and the “terrible” numbers are likely fluky and the “truth” is somewhere in between.

Howard has a .719 OPS in the last 4 years versus LHP. How would we estimate his “true” OPS versus LHP? You might be tempted to just use the .719, which is not too good or you might be tempted to use the .719 and then regress that toward the league average for a LH batter of Howard’s physical characteristics, which might be around the same or a little higher – I don’t know. Both of these methods would be wrong. You cannot ignore the fact that he also hit 1.052 in OPS versus RHP over the same time period (last 4 years) and in many more PA. This suggests that he is a very good hitter overall (which he is) and that the .719 is somewhat of a fluke.

So MGL's main thesis is that the large discrepancies we see in some players is due to a smaller sample size relative to their overall performance, which is a more useful indicator of their talent and can be applied to platoon splits via regression to come up with a more "stable" number. MGL goes on to do this for Howard, getting an OPS of .805 versus lefties, rather than his actual .719 over the past four years.

The question I then have to ask is: how long do we have to wait to believe that a noticeably large split is due to a real ability to mash one side and a true inability to hit even close to as well (relative to the other side) against the other?

Unfortunately, we don't have league leader/sortable data on Fangraphs pertaining to splits just yet, but I thought about all the guys that announcers had told me stunk against their same-handed pitching counterparts and looked them up. Here are some interesting names sorted by wRC+ with their same-handed numbers first, opposite second, and plate appearances in parentheses:

Ryan Garko: 106 (485), 136 (1229)
Carlos Delgado: 107 (1400), 154 (3123)
Fernando Tatis: 90 (465), 111 (910)
Eric Karros: 83 (312), 134 (737)
Jack Cust: 105 (1510), 134 (1373)

Some extreme differences there, and these are only the ones that hit me from memory. Obviously MGL and others are not saying that some players don't hit better against opposite hand pitchers; this is clearly true. The question is how much.

I'd also like to see how players do split wise over the course of a career. Obviously the skill of hitters diminishes over time, but it'd be interesting to see if the splits are larger. Ryan Howard certainly is not "old" at 30 years old, but his skill set and physical size certainly have shifted over the years. While he was never slender, Howard is certainly a "bigger" guy than he used to be, and probably a good amount slower. Besides that, as players get older they tend to lose some hand-eye skill and bat speed, an effect that may be magnified when facing a pitcher of the same handedness. Here are Howard's wRC+ from 2006-2009, going from overall to versus lefties and then versus righties.

2006: 166, 133, 182
2007: 140, 110, 159
2008: 123, 91, 143
2009: 141, 71, 178

As you can see, that's a 49 point difference in 2006, same in 2007, 52 in 2008, and 107 in 2009. I doubt the difference will be as big in 2010, because I'm sure we can charge a big chunk of the 107 to some luck, but we shouldn't be surprised to see a difference of around 75-90 points.

There's still a good amount of work to be done in this area of research, and we should be excited for Fangraphs' new tool. I think the next step is looking to the data to find similar traits in players, both physically and in their numbers, to determine whether their relative success versus opposite-handed pitchers would be indicative of future success, or just white noise. I'm anxious to find out.

Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Pat Andriola 2010-02-08T16:31:36+00:00 Jose Tabata in his mid-twenties? http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/jose-tabata-in-his-mid-twenties/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/jose-tabata-in-his-mid-twenties/ B.J. Upton and Matt Wieters to save a quick buck, forfeiting staggering amounts of surplus value in those zero-to-six years of service time in the process. Also gone are the days of paying large chunks of cash to veterans on their last legs, such as Matt Morris and Jeromy Burnitz.





According to Baseball America, the Pirates spent a MLB-high $18.7 million in the 2008 and 2009 drafts. Pittsburgh ponied up for Pedro Alvarez in '08, while also giving a seven-figure bonus to 6th-round pick Robbie Grossman, a toolsy outfielder, and a $900,000 bonus to 20th-rounder Quinton Miller, a hard-throwing righty.

The renewed focus on snatching up talent in the draft continued this past June. The Bucs elicited some grumbles by drafting catcher Tony Sanchez with the fourth overall selection (a defensible move, in my opinion-an average to above-average player at a premium position is a valuable commodity). But Pittsburgh gave $600,000 to fourth-round lefty Zack Dodson, $1.2 million to eighth-round righty Zack Von Rosenberg and $1.125 million to eighth-round left-hander Colton Cain.

In addition to the beefed up draft budget, the Pirates opened a $5 million complex in the Dominican Republic. And the major league roster has been radically altered, with numerous veterans jettisoned in favor of young, cost-controlled talent.

Unfortunately, one of the more promising farmhands acquired in the flurry of trades over the past two seasons might be several years older than originally thought. Jose Tabata, picked up from the Yankees in June of 2008 along with Ross Ohlendorf, Daniel McCutchen and Jeff Karstens for Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, might be in his mid-twenties instead of his listed age of 21.

According to Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune Review, GM Huntington recently said the following regarding Tabata's age:

All of the documentation he has used to obtain his visa from the U.S. government and his passport from the Venezuelan government indicates his reported age is accurate. Apart from unfounded speculation, there is nothing to indicate his age any different than reported. My point is that while we have reason to doubt his reported age, it is a non-issue to us.


And here is Biertempfel's take on Tabata:

Even if Tabata should have three or four more candles on his birthday cake, he's still considered a top prospect. But how good he is, to a degree, does depend on his age.


To be clear, there is nothing concrete to suggest that Tabata is older than his listed age. But Huntington's comments do leave some degree of doubt. While Tabata's age is said to be a "non-issue," it could play a very large role in how he is regarded as a prospect.

Having turned 21 this past August, Tabata is considered one of the better outfielders in the minors. The 5-11, 220 pound Venezuelan is a better athlete than his frame would suggest, though he's going to play a corner spot in the majors. Tabata is a career .295/.364/.402 hitter in the minors, and batted a combined .293/.357/.406 between Double-A and Triple-A this past season.

That performance as a 20 year-old garnered plenty of prospect accolades. Baseball America ranked Tabata as the second-best talent in the Pittsburgh system in November, saying that "he has the potential to be an all-star right fielder if his power develops." John Sickels also dubbed Tabata the second-best prospect in the Pirates' organization in December, giving him a B grade and noting his age relative to the levels at which he played: "I don't know if I agree with the Pirates about his power, but I do believe them about his age and at 21 he is still VERY young with high upside."

ESPN's Keith Law placed Tabata as the 57th-best prospect in the game in late January. Said Law:

The two major questions now on Tabata are whether his pattern of making very hard contact is going to lead to above-average power in games, and whether his listed date of birth is accurate...if he's really 23 or 24, he wouldn't make the Top 100 at all.


And there is the crux of the issue. At 21, Tabata is considered a precocious talent who has kept his head above water while competing with players several years his senior. He gets the benefit of the doubt in terms of future power output, with the thought process being that he has years of development time left. If, however, Tabata is 23 or 24, then we are talking about a player with less projection, who played at an age-appropriate level and didn't really stand out from his peers.

To what extent a few extra birthdays would ding Tabata's prospect status is up for interpretation, but there's no doubt that it would decrease his standing within the organization.

Thanks to extensive research conducted by Victor Wang, we can get a feel for how much of an impact those extra candles on the cake would have on Tabata's expected value to the Pirates.

Wang calculated the expected surplus value (how much a player's production would cost to replace on the free agent market, minus his actual salary) of players during their first six years of major league service time, based on prospect tiers.

Why the first six years? Teams have control over a player for the first six years of his career. Those 0-3 year players make peanuts compared to their free agent market value, and the 4-6 year guys still generally earn less than they would if all teams could bid on their services. After that, clubs choosing to retain a player are usually paying the full sticker price. Wang found the values for top 100 prospects based on Baseball America rankings from 1990-1999. For players not ranked in the top 100, he used John Sickels' prospect grades.

Here is the list of the expected surplus values from Wang's research, courtesy of Beyond the Boxscore:

Top 10 hitting prospects $36.5M
Top 11-25 hitters $25.1
Top 26-50 hitters $23.4
Top 51-75 hitters $14.2
Top 76-100 hitters $12.5
Grade B hitters $5.5
Grade C hitters 22 or younger $0.7
Grade C hitters 23 or older $0.5

Let's say a 21 year-old Tabata qualifies in the Top 51-75 range, with an expected surplus value of $14.2 million during the first six years of his big league career. If he is actually 23 or 24, it's a safe assumption that he would fall off the top 100 entirely, and would place in the Grade B hitters as rated by Sickels. That's a hit of $8.7 million in expected surplus value ($14.2 million in surplus value as a Top 51-75 hitter to $5.5 million in surplus value as a Grade B hitter not making BA's Top 100 list).

A 21 year-old Tabata has considerable value. A 23 or 24 year-old Tabata, however, is much more of a question mark. It would appear that the outfielder's age is actually a very large issue for the Bucs.





Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> David Golebiewski 2010-02-08T12:10:56+00:00 Ranking MLB stadiums (that I’ve been to) http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ranking-mlb-stadiums-that-ive-been-to/ http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ranking-mlb-stadiums-that-ive-been-to/
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Read more great baseball stuff at The Hardball Times.]]> ]]> Chris Jaffe 2010-02-08T08:37:50+00:00