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May 9, 2008
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 Thursday, May 08, 2008Exploiting your league’s rulesI wanted to relay a story about a series of moves I made over the past two weeks in one of my favorite leagues. My home league, which I discussed last year, has become significantly more competitive this year with the addition of a few new owners and some radical rule changes. It is now a keeper league with a really cool contract system, plus a minor league system with rules governing arbitration. It's a lot of fun. By knowing all the rules of my league, I was able to exploit them to carry myself just a little bit closer to my goal: winning the league several times over. The Liriano situationI won Francisco Liriano at auction for $14 which was, at the time, a pretty decent bargain in my estimation. Looking at it now, maybe not so much. The rules state that auctioned players receive two-year contracts at the price at which they were won. During the inaugural year of the league, though, all contracts are just one year long. If an owner wishes to extend a player beyond one year, he must pay an additional $5 per year, each year. So for Liriano, to keep him next year, I would have had to pay $19. To keep him for the next two years, it would have cost $24 for each. This wasn't a scenario I was drooling over to begin with, and certainly not after his awful start to 2008. Luckily, I was able to exploit my league's rules to improve my potential future equity on Liriano. The rules also state that a player picked up through the in-season FAAB process—assuming the owner decides to keep said player the following season—will have a contract of $7 the following year. After that, he may be extended per the usual $5 per year, each year rule. The first moveKnowing that it would be difficult to keep Liriano at $19 or $24 unless he turned in a monster second-half and knowing that I had a dominant pitching staff to fall back on should something go terribly wrong (which they didn't in regard to Liriano, but I did lose Yovani Gallardo and John Smoltz a little later... ugh), I spent the week spreading anti-Liriano propaganda (context: this was the week Liriano was sent to the minors, so it was pretty well disguised). I would talk to owners about how I wasted $14 on him and how he looked abysmal to start the year. I'd talk about how the Tommy John surgery clearly didn't work and how he got sent to the minors. At the end of the week, when our transaction deadline arrived, I dropped him. The second moveThe following week, I didn't say a word to anyone about Liriano unless they brought it up (they didn't) so as not to draw attention to him. At the end-of-week transaction deadline, I placed a $12 bid for Liriano and won him back. Yes, $12 seems high, but the rules also state that the winning owner need only pay the second highest bid plus $1. With how bad Liriano had struggled, I figured that the chances of me actually having to pay $12 were slim, but if it did happen, it wouldn't be the end of the world. Since all of the top minor leaguers are already owned in our minor league systems and since the league uses players from both the American and National League (no mid-season cross-overs), there really wasn't anybody I needed to save a good chunk of money for (not that I advocate spending the majority of your FAAB budget on a single player most of the time anyway). Nobody else bid, and I ended up getting Liriano back for $1. By making this move, I can now keep Liriano next year for $7 as opposed to $19. It was timed perfectly, at the point when Liriano's value could conceivably be the lowest it will be all year. If he has a good second half, I have a great keeper. If not, I cut bait on him. All it will have cost me is $1 FAAB and a roster spot, the price of which I actually managed to minimize with a corresponding move. The third move—and a separate but equally good move to capitalize on the rulesHere's a little background on the corresponding move, which further shows the importance of paying careful attention to your league's rules. In our minor league draft, all players under contract with a major league team as of Opening Day who do not exceed the eligibility requirements (200 plate appearances for hitters, 50 innings for pitchers) may be drafted. In the second-to-last round of the minor league draft, I grabbed Hiroki Kuroda, who likely went overlooked because he came from Japan and wasn't really a "minor leaguer." I figured this would be a minimal investment, but one that could pay big dividends. I don't see Kuroda as a high-upside guy, but players drafted in the minor league phase receive three-year contracts at $0 for each year. So I could conceivably fill one of my pitcher spots with a $0 Kuroda for three years since he began 2008 in the majors. Back to the Liriano talk. While he exceeds the 50 inning requirement for minor league eligibility, a team may demote a player who does not meet this requirement if his real-life team demotes him. So after re-signing Liriano, I demoted him to the minors and called up Kuroda to make room. Not only does this give me the flexibility of stashing Liriano, it also accomplishes something else for me. Added benefits I consideredI've recently been in trade talks in which Kuroda's name has come up. By promoting him to my major league squad, his trade value gets an instant boost. Most people in the league consider me a pretty strong competitor (I know I said this isn't the best thing, but it's kind of unavoidable in my position), so when I call Kuroda up from the minors, it is perceived as a reflection of my approval of Kuroda. From my own trading experiences, I know that the minute someone comes to me and says, "What will it take for Felix Hernandez?" or "I want Adam Dunn," I have them exactly where I want them. I know that they like these players, and that player's trade value immediately increases in my mind. Promoting Kuroda deals with essentially the same concept. By me saying, "Hiroki Kuroda is good enough for my big league team," his trade value increases at least a little to anyone paying attention. This, combined with his excellent contract status in our league and his current 3.95 ERA, should make him a pretty valuable commodity. Concluding thoughtsThe lesson here is to always be aware of your league's rules and to always be looking for ways to exploit them to your advantage. In competitive leagues, we need to be looking for every advantage we can get. Whether this move works out isn't the point. Whether you think Liriano will be awful the rest of the year doesn't matter. This move was made with nigh zero risk. I gave up almost nothing to make this move, and the potential future profits are surely greater than that. Even if you can make a move in this vein on a smaller scale or with a lesser player or using different rules, the concept remains the same. If it doesn't cost you much but the potential for future reward is large in relation, do it. Posted by Derek Carty at 11:00am Monday, May 05, 2008The save speculator: Milwaukee BrewersEric Gagne blew his fifth save of the year Sunday night, leading to speculation that he might be removed from the closer's role. First I'll give a brief overview of what makes a good fantasy closer—which will appear in each edition of the "Save Speculator"—and then we'll examine the Brewers' situation more closely. What makes a valuable fantasy closerTwo things that make a valuable fantasy closer. The first is talent and the second is opportunity. A pitcher needs both to be an effective fantasy closer. If a closer is talented, like Rafael Soriano early last year, but doesn't have the opportunity, he won't pick up many saves. If a closer has the opportunity, like Bob Wickman last year, but doesn't have the talent, he is likely to lose the job. This series of articles will examine situations around the leagues, identify where there is a closer who doesn't possess the talent to keep his job, then assess which of the team's other relievers might replace him. Milwaukee BrewersEric Gagne was once the top closer in baseball, but has been plagued by injuries in recent years. He looked very strong in the first-half of 2007 for the Rangers, but he seemed to fall apart after being traded to the Red Sox. This offseason, the Milwaukee Brewers signed him to a one-year, $10 million contract. He is currently sporting a 6.14 ERA, nine saves and five blown saves. The Brew Crew did, however, lose only two of the games in which he blew a save (one of which was Sunday). The Brewers are primed to contend this year, though, and they can't afford their ninth inning guy putting the game in jeopardy. So what will they do? It's possible Gagne has seen his last save opportunity for the Brewers, although the guys vying to replace him aren't exactly awe-inspiring. Candidates: 1) David Riske 2) Salomon Torres 3) Guillermo Mota Skills2008 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP ERA Gagne 13.2 11.20 4.61 34% 3.60 5.27 Torres 19.1 7.45 3.72 63% 3.71 3.26 Mota 14 10.93 6.43 47% 4.31 2.57 Riske 16.1 5.51 4.41 33% 4.87 5.51 2007 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP Gagne 52 8.83 3.63 39% 4.21 Torres 52.2 7.69 2.91 49% 4.21 Mota 59.1 7.13 2.73 44% 4.32 Riske 69.2 6.72 3.49 41% 4.56 2006 Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% xFIP Gagne 2 --- --- --- --- Torres 93.1 6.94 3.66 55% 4.07 Mota 55.2 7.44 3.88 34% 3.36 Riske 44 5.73 3.48 36% 5.13 2008 Marcels Pitcher IP K/9 BB/9 GB% Gagne --- 7.76 3.53 --- Torres --- 6.64 3.39 --- Mota --- 7.05 3.45 --- Riske --- 6.47 3.38 --- Note: I realize this might not be the most easily readable format for this, but when we need to look at multiple years for several players, I'm not sure how best to do it. If you have suggestions for future editions, they're more than welcome. Gagne was great until 2005, but didn't pitch much in 2006 and was only decent in 2007. He's actually been pretty good so far in 2008, but his 31 percent HR/FB rate is making him look really bad. Nothing is more detrimental to a closer's job security than the long ball. It is easily observable and does immediate, irreparable damage. Gagne has given up four already this year. Combine that with a below-average walk rate, and that can cause some serious damage. If Gagne is removed, who fills in? Well, Marcels saw very little distinguishable difference among his potential replacements coming into the year. Torres gets the edge given his superior career ground ball rates. If we look at the actual data from the last couple of years, we see that Riske appears to be clearly inferior. He and Derrick Turnbow (who has since been designated for assignment and subsequently sent to the minors) were originally the backup plan to Gagne, but when your ERA matches your K/9, there's a good chance you're doing something wrong. Riske really hasn't been a good pitcher since 2003 or 2004, and he isn't looking good so far this year. Mota and Torres have quite similar peripherals. Above-average strikeouts, so-so control. Torres gets the edge, though, because of his 52 percent ground ball rate since 2002. Mota's is just 42 percent. OpportunityMost people seem to think Torres would get the job should Gagne get removed, but Leverage Index would argue with them. Leverage Index Pitcher gmLI pLI Mota 1.87 2.18 Torres 1.22 1.36 Riske 1.03 1.21 Mota leads here by a substantial margin in both gmLI and pLI. That the Brewers trust him more than the other guys says something. They obviously don't want somebody they don't trust pitching the ninth inning, especially with the way Gagne has been so far. One interesting thing about this situation is that all three of these guys have closed before. I don't think this will matter too much to the Brewers, but let's check out their records anyway. Save conversions Pitcher SVO SV BS SV% Torres 45 30 15 67% Riske 38 21 17 55% Mota 19 7 12 37% None were very good, which further leads me to believe that this won't have much of an impact on the Brewers' decision (again, should one actually have to be made). That Mota was just 37 percent successful could keep him out of the role, but the Brewers are a pretty progressive organization. Hopefully they see the small sample size there and don't buy too deep into the notion that the ninth inning is so pressure-filled that some guys simply can't do it. I mean, they're putting Mota in very high-leverage situations now and he's doing fine, so hopefully they'd be all right with him closing. Let's check out where in games each of these guys is being used. We know that Mota is being used in the highest-leverage situations, but is he also being used late in the game? The following table shows the breakdown of the number of times each of these pitchers entered the game in a particular inning. Innings breakdown Pitcher 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 8th+ Average Mota 0 0 0 10 0 2 12 8.3 Torres 2 2 7 0 1 2 3 7.1 Riske 1 5 3 4 0 1 5 7.0 Note: 8th+ is the numbers of times the pitcher entered the game in the 8th inning or later. We can see that Mota clearly has the advantage here. He is being used most often late in the game (never earlier than the eighth inning) in addition to pitching the highest-leverage innings. These two things will sometimes coincide, but not always. Just look at the Diamondbacks' situation from last time. Torres has actually entered in the eighth inning or later just three times this year, but did enter in the seventh and stay on into the eighth four times, and one time he pitched from the seventh into the ninth. Riske is being used all over the place, and has entered in the eighth inning or later only once over the past two weeks. He also has been yanked in the middle of an inning five times this year, showing what little confidence the team has in him to work out of a jam. Finally, let's check out how often these guys are being used for more than one inning. Sometimes a team will forgo the most talented pitcher because the manager prefers to use him for multiple innings instead of pigeon-holing him in the ninth. Multi-inning usage Pitcher 1+ 2+ 3+ Mota 3 2 0 Riske 5 3 0 Torres 7 5 1 Another reason to like Mota. He is used for multiple innings the least of these three and would make more sense pitching just one inning in the ninth. While I think you've likely already eliminated Riske in your mind, I wanted to note that it's possible his numbers here would have been higher had he been performing better this year. Final breakdownReasons for Mota: 1) Highest Leverage Index 2) Used late in the game more often than the other two 3) Used for multiple innings the least often 4) Comparable skills to Torres and better skills than Riske 5) Lowest ERA of the group Reasons for Torres: 1) Best skills (though not by much compared to Mota) 2) Given Gagne's homer troubles, Torres' low fly ball rates might look appealing 3) Most prior success closing games among the three candidates (although he wasn't that good) Reasons for Riske: 1) Was considered Gagne's primary insurance early in the season (so was Turnbow, though) Verdict: I picked up both Mota and Torres in one of my leagues tonight. If you have the bench space to do it (I placed John Smoltz, Yovani Gallardo, and Hank Blalock on the DL this week, so I did), it might be a good idea in case Gagne is removed over the next couple of days. If he lasts longer than that, you can drop one. If you have room for only one to begin with, I would probably go with Mota. I picked him up in another couple of leagues tonight. While a lot of people will tell you Torres is the guy to own, Mota seems to make a lot more sense to me given all that we looked at today. Please keep in mind, though, that Gagne is not a lock to lose his job. He would probably be more successful than any of these guys given the chance to close for the rest of the season. The name of this series of articles is the "saves speculator." In competitive leagues, we often need to pick up a closer before he actually inherits the job. While it's no lock that one of these guys will be closing soon, picking one up is probably one of the better percentage plays you could make at this time. Also, please realize that even if one of these guys takes the job, there is no guarantee he will close all year. None really has the skills to be a good closer. I do believe in the saying "saves are saves," though, so if one of them does start closing, that guy would absolutely be worth owning. Just don't count on him to close all year because the likelihood of that isn't great, whoever it ends up being. Concluding thoughtsIf you have any thoughts on this matter, feel free to either comment or send me an e-mail. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:55pm Sunday, May 04, 2008Waiver Wire: National League (Week 5)It usually seems like the American League is the boring league as far as pickups go. Not this week. Sorry NL-only leaguers! National LeagueRich Hill | CHC | SP - Rich Hill was sent down to the minors after getting off to a rough start to the year. I really would like to take a look at his Pitch f/x data to see if his pitches really were as flat as some describe or if his release point was off as he claimed. Maybe we'll do that this week. Either way, he only had pitched 17 innings and was excellent last year. If his owner drops him, he might be worth stashing, although with the Cubs and Lou Piniella, we really don't know when he'll be back. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues. Jon Lieber | CHC | SP - Lieber will replace Hill, but he really isn't that good. He has good control, but won't post higher than a league average strikeout rate (will likely be a decent bit lower than that) and only has an average ground ball rate. Will help in NL-only leagues, but that's all. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Johnny Cueto | CIN | SP - Not gonna spend much time here. 8.49 K/9 and 1.54 BB/9 are accompanied by a 5.40 ERA and 52% LOB%. The LOB% is in turn accompanied by awful peripherals with runners on base, suggesting either a small sample size or trouble adjusting to the majors while pitching from the stretch. Maybe a look with Pitch f/x one day soon will shed some light on this. Regardless, he needs to be owned; I don't think anyone (especially someone with peripherals like that) deserves a 52% LOB%. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. John Lannan | WAS | SP - There are some things to like about Lannan, but not enough to warrant all the pickups he's receiving. He gets a lot of ground balls, but his 6.42 K/9 is higher than it was at any level in the minors last year, and that includes 50.2 innings in High-A ball. His 4.28 BB/9 is also bad, although it was better in the minors. Not a guy you should be rushing to get. I would probably take Lieber over him. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Aaron Cook | COL | SP - Cook is the same pitcher he's always been, so all of these pickups are unwarranted. His K/9 is up a little bit, but 4.39 isn't really anything to cheer for. He gets a lot of ground balls, which play well in Coors, but he is still playing in Coors with a below-average strikeout rate and a non-elite walk rate. ERA is being affected by a .251 BABIP and 6% HR/FB. Recommendation - Should be not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Phil Dumatrait | PIT | SP - A one-time prospect for the Red Sox, Dumatrait never fullfilled his promise. He's starting in Pittsburgh now that Matt Morris has been released, but he really isn't a good pickup. In 212.2 Triple-A innings between 2006 and 2007, Dumatrait posted pedestrian 5.29 K/9 and 3.98 BB/9 rates. Pass. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - Gallardo tore his ACL and will likely be out for the year. Don't drop him until the results of his tests are official and it is announced he'll undergo surgery, but when it is, feel free to drop him. Recommendation - Should be dropped in all redraft leagues once he is declared out for the year. Dave Bush | MIL | SP - Dave Bush was a big-time sleeper for 2007 but disappointed his owners. He was sent to the minors recently, but with Gallardo out has been called back up. He still has decent skills, though he may never get back to his 2006 level when it appeared he was primed for a breakout. The recommendation given indicates leagues he deserves to be owned in, but there's a decent chance there are better guys also available on your waiver wire. Recommendation - Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Jair Jurrjens | ATL | SP - Jurrjens really should be in the minors another year. He isn't though, so he has some fantasy value. His 6.57 K/9 and 3.05 BB/9 are close to what we could expect given his stats from last year, but that doesn't make him deserving of being owned in nearly half of ESPN leagues. He gets ground balls and has potential, but I don't see him having too much upside this year. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 8-team NL-only leagues. Tom Glavine | ATL | SP - Stop picking up Tom Glavine! Do you think he suddenly turned 42 and decided he was going to start pitching like he when he was 32 again? No, his 2.60 ERA is simply a function of an 86% LOB%. He's no longer a good pitcher. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep NL-only leagues. Paul Maholm | PIT | SP - Maholm is getting lucky, but he's a pretty good pitcher. His K/9 is up to 6.23 and his BB/9 is under 3.00 again. He is also gets over 50% ground balls, so he is a guy worth a pickup. Might not have a ton of upside and might not get quite as many wins as a guy with his skills playing for a good team, but he's a solid pitcher. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Ian Snell | PIT | SP - In a competitive league, Snell is still owned. If you're league is a little less so, he's worth a pickup. His peripherals are down and his .349 BABIP and 68% LOB% are hurting him, but he's still a good candidate to bounce back and have a good year. Hold. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Ryan Doumit | PIT | C - Playing over his head a bit, but certainly a worthwhile catcher to own. His contact rate and BABIP are not in line with his career numbers, though if the contact rate remains this high he definitely gets a boost. His raw power isn't much changed over last year, but it's still pretty good and he hits a pretty good percentage of fly balls. A .280-.285 average with 20-25 homers over 500 at-bats is completely within reason. He's also hitting cleanup, so he should get lots of RBIs. Excellent pickup as a catcher if he's still available. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Carlos Delgado | NYM | 1B - For all the negative things being said about Carlos Delgado, he isn't that bad. His HitTracker profile shows that his raw power is still relatively in tact. He was actually probably a little unlucky in that department last year. His fly balls are down a little bit, but that could just be a small sample size thing as he isn't even half-way to the point where fly ball rate becomes meaningful. Even if it stays where it is, he could hit .270 with 23 homers. The current .258 batting average is being hurt by his unlucky .225 BABIP. If he can manage to secure the #5 spot in the rotation, he'll get a bunch of RBIs, although he'd get a good amount hitting #6 too. If Moises Alou gets hurt again, the #5 spot should go to him by default. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Luis Gonzalez | FLA | OF - Gonzalez will fill in for Josh Willingham, but he's not a great play. Still has a little power left. Over 500 at-bats, he could hit 17 homers with a .265 batting average. If that sounds appealing over the next couple weeks, feel free to pick him up. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Jayson Werth | PHI | OF - Werth is showing a different type of power this year than he did last year. Check out his HitTracker profile for 2008 and 2007. Hitting it to straight-away center and farther than he did last year. Citizens Bank isn't the best park for hitting straight-away homers, but Werth will be interesting to watch, especially considering his BABIP is lower than it has been in his career. He'll still be just 29 at the end of the month, so it's possible he's made some adjustments. Some of his numbers have really been all over the board in his career, but a .275-.280 average with 20 homers in 500 at-bats really wouldn't be out of the question. He'll also collect some steals and will score runs at the top of the lineup. Risky, but might be worth it. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Fred Lewis | SF | OF - Lewis isn't showing additional raw power this year, so don't flock to him for that reason. His .405 BABIP is also far too high. Overall, Lewis is decent, but think more along the lines of a .270 average with maybe 10 homers or so. He is running more this year (21 percent up from 11 percent last year) and could help with steals and runs (batting mostly leadoff), but he's not someone to go crazy over. Recommendation - Should be only be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - He's been activated from the DL but was also demoted, giving Blake Dewitt the job. Dewitt, though, is currently sporting a higher walk rate and BABIP than he had at any level of the minors in his career. He isn't showing much power or speed either, so there's a good chance LaRoche will have the job in the near future. He'll also have Nomar Garciaparra to worry about once he gets healthy himself, but LaRoche is the most talented of the three by far. If you have room to stash him, it might be worth it. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:44pm Saturday, May 03, 2008Player spotlight: Jeff ClementI thought with the recent call-up of Jeff Clement, it would be a good idea to put a mini-"Player Spotlight" on him. Those of you looking for help at catcher, the cavalry may have just arrived. NumbersYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB CR BABIP LD% BB% AB/HR AB/XBH HR/FB OF FB% 2005 21 A MDW 113 78% 0.366 13% 10% 19 10 22% 30% 2006 22 AAA PCL 245 78% 0.314 20% 6% 61 18 8% 26% 2007 23 AAA PCL 455 81% 0.303 19% 12% 23 8 18% 30% 2008 24 AAA PCL 78 85% 0.426 --- 22% 16 6 --- --- Clement absolutely tore apart Triple-A this year. It was his third time around and it was in a sample of just 78 at-bats, but they were 78 marvelous ones. Even before this year, he was putting up pretty good contact rates for a catcher and doing a good amount of walking. This plate discipline should help him while adjusting to the majors. He puts up decent fly ball rates, and his HR/FB rates are quite good, as are his AB/XBH. Perhaps the primary reason for concern is his 2006 season. This line looks out of place among the others in the power department. This worries me a little in that if Clement is the type of guy who takes a little longer to adjust to a level, he might struggle in the majors this year. We need to remember, though, that he was just 22 at the time and had less than 200 professional baseball at-bats at that point (11 in Low-A, 113 in Single-A, and 59 in Double-A). So what should we expect from Clement this year? Well, given an 80 percent contact rate, .300 BABIP, 30 percent outfield fly ball rate, and 15 percent HR/OF FB, Clement would hit .265 with 18 home runs in 500 at-bats. That should easily make him a top-10 catcher, and he certainly has the talent to do even better. Plus, he's been batting fifth. If that continues, he could have some nice RBI value as well. EligibilityHost Catcher eligible? ESPN No Yahoo! No FOX Yes CBS Yes Clement already has catcher eligibility in FOX and CBS leagues (or at least in the leagues I'm in, which I believe are standard setups). He needs five games to be eligible in Yahoo! and 10 (I believe, please correct me if I'm wrong) in ESPN. Given the lackluster performances of Kenji Johjima, Jose Vidro and Ben Broussard this year, Clement should find plenty of playing time. (Johjima was just re-signed long-term, though, so the Mariners won't give up on him easily.) If he starts off relatively well, he could find himself starting every day, either as the DH (spelling Johjima on days off) or splitting time among three positions. What Yahoo! and ESPN leaguers are first concerned with, though, is his playing time as a catcher. He has already played in two games at catcher, as Johjima took a break. Johjima won't play every day, being a catcher, and the Mariners have already shown the willingness to play Clement as his backup. Playing on Kenji's days off should give Clement enough games to claim eligibility in Yahoo! leagues within maybe 10-14 days. ESPN leaguers (assuming the requirement is indeed 10 games), well, it really depends on your individual league and team's situation whether you should pick him up. Is he worth a No. 1 waiver claim? Depending on your current catcher situation, I would probably lean toward "yes." In other leagues where the eligibility limit is five games or where he is already eligible, he needs to be owned. If you have questions on which catchers he should be owned over, feel free to send me an e-mail. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:11am Waiver Wire: American League (Week 5)We've got a much more exciting American League this week and a lot of guys to cover, so let's get started. American LeagueNick Adenhart | LAA | SP: Adenhart has been getting some hype, but I just don't see it. Why is a guy who had a 6.82 K/9 and 3.82 BB/9 in 153 Double-A innings last year expected to be a good contributor right now? It's not even like Max Scherzer where his 2007 peripherals were decent and he dominated Triple-A to start this year. He had a 5.52 K/9 and 4.35 BB/9 in Triple-A, for those wondering. He did have a 50 percent ground ball rate last year, but that's not going to make up for his other shortcomings. He should struggle if he remains in the majors. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Garrett Olson | BAL | SP: Less hype than Adenhart, but he's a much better bet for success. He struggled in the majors in limited innings last year, but he had an 8.44 K/9 and 2.74 BB/9 with a 44 percent ground ball rate in Triple-A. He had a nice-looking first start and could stick in the rotation until Adam Loewen returns, which might not be for a while. Even theb, Olson would deserve to stay on in place of Steve Trachsel or the next guy we'll talk about. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Brian Burres | BAL | SP - Burres' current 2.87 ERA is being aided by a lucky .265 BABIP, 79 percent LOB rate, and 6.5 percent HR/FB. His peripherals are bad, though, and they weren't much better last year. Burres pitched in relief in 20 of 37 games last year and posted a 7.14 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9 with a 38 percent ground ball rate. His luck will run out and those who pick him up will be disappointed. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Chad Gaudin | OAK | SP: Gaudin, like Burres, is getting lucky, but he is also being helped by improved control (2.40 BB/9). His career walk rate is 4.35, so there's a pretty good chance it will regress, rendering him useless in most mixed leagues. If you're in a deep league and want to stash someone, feel free. Just know that Gaudin has a lot of downside now and virtually no upside (maybe in the ground ball rate, but that's it). If he continues like this, an ERA in the low 4.00s is most likely. If he regresses, think high 4.00s. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Rich Harden | OAK | SP: Harden will make one more rehab start before joining the big club, so if you want him, you need to grab him now. He is a good bet to get injured again, but he could be effective while healthy. I'm not dropping a good healthy pitcher for him, but while healthy, here are the leagues he could be owned in. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Phil Hughes | NYY | SP: I was actually planning a write-up on Hughes before he got injured, so this will have to do for now. He didn't seem like himself at the end of last year (after returning from injury) or at the start of this year. Now that he's out until July with another injury, who knows what to expect coming back? If you have a DL spot, stash him. If not, I wouldn't blame you for dropping him in mixed leagues. Recommendation: Should be dropped in all but the deepest mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Wladimir Balentien | SEA | OF: Wladimir has some talent, but his value won't approach Jeff Clement's. Until last year, his contact rates ranged from 67 percent to 71 percent, but the 78 percent mark in Triple-A last year and the 82 percent mark in 63 at-bats this year show promise. He walks a lot and has a decent BABIP history, but an average above .250 or .260 might be too much to ask for (unless, of course, that contact rate stays around 80 percent). Given 500 at-bats, though, he could hit 20 home runs. He's hit seventh twice and eighth once so far, so RBIs and runs might not be especially easy to come by. There are likely better options in your league, although Baltentien does have a lot of potential and could be worth taking a chance on. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Emil Brown | OAK | OF: Batting average is being driven by a 90 percent contact rate while his career rate is 79 percent. This could regress (as would his average), but his 113 plate appearances are approaching the 150 Pizza Cutter found as being meaningful. If his contact rate is real, Brown becomes more of a .270 hitter who should be good for a dozen or so home run production. He's currently hitting .417 with runners on and .480 with runners in scoring position. The RBIs will come down as those regress. Recommendation: Should be owned only in the deepest of mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Eric Hinske | TB | 1B/OF: Hinske, like Brown, is seeing his average driven by a higher than normal contact rate, and Hinske only has 90 plate appearances so far. His 20 percent HR/FB is also very high. Considering that HitTracker shows that his raw power hasn't changed at all, and Tropicana isn't especially conducive to where he hits the ball or to lefty hitters in general, the power numbers should drop off a bit. He does hit a lot of fly balls, though, and could hit 20 home runs (assuming 500 at-bats). Unless the new contact rate is for real, though, his average might not go much higher than .250. Not a great spot in the lineup, but he should pick up his fair share of RBIs. He does have to worry a little about Gabe Gross and Jonny Gomes once Cliff Floyd returns (plus Floyd himself), so don't be 100 percent committed to Hinske if you own him. Recommendation: Should be owned only in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Reggie Willits | LAA | OF: Willits was called up this week, and while he has some skills, he probably won't have much fantasy value now. He has speed and takes a lot of walks, but he has no power and it's yet to be seen if his .363 BABIP is sustainable at the major league level. Even if it's just .340, he would still hit over .300, but if the BABIP drops to .300 then he would only hit .270. There also isn't any room for him in the Anaheim outfield right now with Vladimir Guerrero, Torii Hunter, Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. around. He makes a decent speculative pick in deeper leagues given the shaky health of some of those guys, but not much more. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Scott Rolen | TOR | 3B: Just 23 at-bats into his season, you shouldn't be changing your expectations of Rolen. Toronto inflates righties' homers by 21 percent, but Rolen doesn't have a ton left. Still, he should be marginally useful while healthy, batting .285 or so in a decent lineup for runs and RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues while healthy given that most good third basemen are in the NL. Billy Butler | KC | 1B/OF/UT: Why is Butler getting dropped? He's hitting .290 (as he should be expected to this year, if not higher) and has pretty good raw power (although he only has one homer so far). He's batting mostly sixth now, but he should still collect some RBIs. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Franklin Gutierrez | CLE | OF: He's kind of an unspectacular type (at least in terms of his fantasy numbers), but he gets the job done. A .270 average with 15-20 homers and a handful of steals can be expected of Gutierrez. He still needs to worry a little about Jason Michaels or David Dellucci, but he'll probably get close to regular at-bats the rest of the year unless he really starts to slump. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Jeff Clement | SEA | C/UT: I talked more in-depth about Clement in today's "Player Spotlight." The basic point was that if he is eligible at catcher in your league (or will be after five games there), he needs to be owned. Otherwise, it really goes on a case-by-case basis. If you have room to stash him and wait until he gains catcher eligibility in leagues that require more games, you could be handsomely rewarded. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | TEX | C/1B: A lot of people like Salty, but I think he's overrated. He's not getting regular playing time, is hitting relatively low in the order when he does, puts up below-average contact rates, and had a .270 BABIP in Double-A in 2006. He could hit 15 or so homers given 500 at-bats. By catcher standards he is okay, but he's really not great. Recommendation: Should not be owned in single-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team, two-catcher mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team AL-only single catcher leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher AL-only leagues. Concluding thoughtsIf you have questions on anyone else, feel free to send me an e-mail. We'll look at the National League either tonight or tomorrow. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
