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 Monday, March 31, 2008Nick Johnson: Bounty or bust?I was recently asked by a fellow writer what I thought about Nick Johnson and his prospects for having a good 2008 season. The main concern here is his injury history, the less-than-potent lineup he belongs to, and the fact that he has been battling Dmitri Young for playing time. Nick Johnson: An Overview of ProductionThe somewhat pudgy first baseman for the Washington Nationals should not be mistaken as someone who cannot play baseball, yet he is being widely ignored in most fantasy baseball circles. You only get nicknamed “Nick the Stick” if you can hit, and if…well…nevermind. He is listed at 6-foot-3, 224 lbs., but in past years has looked more like 230-240 (though watching him tonight, he could pass for 220) . His injury history is legendary, and his propensity for the minor injuries that last for what seem like decades is what drives managers away from drafting him and his outstanding abilities at the plate. Nick Johnson is a player with great patience at the plate, drawing a hefty number of walks and providing an on base percentage over .400 on a regular basis. He is no slouch when it comes to hitting, either. He should be considered, for all intents and purposes, a .285 hitter who can take over games with an occasional outburst of production. 2006 was his most successful offensive season yet, with 23 home runs, 77 RBIs, and a tremendous .290/.428/.520 line. He somehow managed to elude opposing battery units by swiping 10 bags to boot, which is hard to believe given the fact that it is a widely held belief that he is overweight and out of shape. The 46 doubles that he mustered was amongst the tops in the NL. The most impressive aspect of Nick Johnson’s 2006 campaign is that it occurred in RFK Stadium, which almost certainly hindered his power production, because it is notorious for being a pitcher-friendly park. Now that the Nationals are in their new confines, look for a healthy Nick Johnson to boost his home run totals to right around 30. Yet, he is still being found on many free agent and waiver lists across many leagues. If you have a shallow bench with some Yuniesky Betancourt-like players, do yourself a favor and add a player like Nick Johnson. Sure, he could end up getting hurt, but while healthy, he will offer a stellar average, on-base percentage, and good power and RBI production. You cannot say the same for Betancourt, who is one dimensional in the average category. Injury Analysis: What to ExpectThe easy answer: expect that he will miss 30 games this season. He has struggled to stay healthy his entire career. If you look at his games played since 2002, he has managed to play in: 129, 96, 73, 131, and 147 games. He missed all of 2007 with his broken femur. He has sustained injuries to many body parts in his career. In 2003, he had a fracture in his right hand, and missed more than two months of the season as a result. He struggled in 2004 after having a lingering back injury, as well as a fractured cheekbone from a batted ball. He never did on track during the 2004 season, in all likelihood a result of his back injury. In the two seasons that he stayed relatively healthy, 2005 and 2006, Johnson provided outstanding production for the Washington Nationals. He routinely had one of the best on-base percentages in all of baseball, including a .478 OBP with runners in scoring position during the 2005 campaign. In 2006, he was third in the league in walks with 110, and was in the top 10 in both intentional walks and doubles. He also set career highs in on base percentage (.428), batting average (.290), and slugging percentage (.520). Late in 2006, he suffered a significant fracture of his right femur after colliding with Austin Kearns while attempting to field a ball. He required surgical fixation of the fracture later that night, which further highlights the severity of the injury. A broken femur is not what I would classify in the "minor" injuries column. The femur is the largest bone in the human body, so in order to break it, an extraordinary amount of force is required. This bone is extremely important for weight bearing, and it also serves as a major site of muscle attachment for the quadriceps, hip muscles, and groin muscles. Johnson struggled to regain his ability to run and bear weight through the leg, primarily due to scar tissue formation and secondary issues at his hip. He also struggled to regain the strength in his entire leg due to this. In addition to the original surgery to repair the fracture site, he also had two other surgeries to remove scar tissue from the area, and to remove the original hardware (rods and screws) from the femur. Now that the fracture site is fully healed, we should not expect any further injury from the fracture itself. There should be, however, some concern as to how strong and well conditioned he is. The Nationals would be best advised to rest him at least once a week in order to prevent him from wearing down over the course of the season. The one bright spot is that he hits left handed, so the right femur is his lead leg, not his plant leg. The plant leg is the one that needs to be loaded with body weight as the pitch is delivered, and also provides a base of support during the swing. For this reason, I would not expect a huge dropoff in his power numbers as most people would expect. That being said, I would expect Nick Johnson to miss his usual 20-30 games this season as the Nationals attempt to preserve the health of their best pure hitter. If he can stay on the field for most of the 2008 season, it is not out of the question to see a player with improved numbers from his 2006 season across the board. Projection: .290/.410/.530; 28 home runs, 95 RBIs. Posted by Chris Neault at 1:38am Sunday, March 30, 2008Fantasy roundtable: Hart, Markakis, or PenceThis week's fantasy roundtable is up over at Roto Professor. The topic this week relates to three young outfielders: Corey Hart, Nick Markakis, and Hunter Pence. Check it out if you're interested! Posted by Derek Carty at 2:54pm Saturday, March 29, 2008Trade strategy: Getting to know your opponentThe season is here! The Red Sox and A's have played their first games and Opening Day in the States is nearly here. Your draft prep is complete, draft day has passed, and it's time to relax, right? Well, no. You have your team and the games are set to begin, but now it's time to begin thinking about trading. Even if you don't make your first trade until July... even if you don't make your first trade until the day of the deadline (highly discouraged as that approach may be)... now is the time to begin laying the foundation. If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles. You'll often read articles about fantasy baseball strategy that talk about "knowing your opponent." Many times, though, there isn't much elaboration on this point. Typically, the advice ends there. Because of this, I thought I'd expand upon this vital concept in the context of trading. I see the trading process as having four layers. The deeper you go, the more effort you have to put in. The deeper you go, however, the more successful you will be. (Quick note: I will use a lot of masculine pronouns for simplicity's sake. I realize that plenty of females play fantasy baseball, so please don't take this is a slight.) No. 1—The "me" layer
No. 2—The "him" evaluation layer
No. 3—The "him" psychological layer
No. 4—The "him" danger layer
Knowing yourselfLet's revisit the Sun Tzu quote at the beginning of this article: "If you know the enemy and know yourself you need not fear the results of a hundred battles." We just talked about knowing your opponent in great detail, but also of vital importance is knowing yourself. It can be good practice to run through these questions with yourself as the subject. Really get to know what drives you in the game of fantasy baseball, in negotiations, and psychologically. You might find you unearth some unintentional tendencies you have that your opponents can exploit. Once you find them, you will know to conceal them. Think about this in terms of poker. There are two key elements to a good poker player. One is math, odds and probabilities. The other is reading your opponents' tells and concealing your own. If you've ever seen the movie Rounders with Matt Damon, Edward Norton and John Malkovich, you'll recall that Malkovich's character, Teddy KGB, had a very distinguishable tell. He had a box of Oreos, and he would crack one open and hold it up to his ear. When he ate the Oreo, he had a good hand. When he didn't eat the Oreo, he was bluffing. Matt Damon's character was able to figure this out and use it against him. Had Teddy KGB analyzed himself, he would have recognized this tell and could have stopped it. Obviously tells at a real poker table aren't this obvious, and tells in trade negotiations are probably less so, but it doesn't necessarily have to be a mannerism. If you can read people in this way, fantastic. If not, simply collecting information and running a careful analysis of it can be enough. This includes running an analysis of yourself and hiding any exploitable tendencies you have. Achieving successTo be successful, you need to look at the institution of trading as a war. You need to look at every competitor as an enemy. You need to look at every conversation you have with another owner—even those where the discussion isn't baseball related—as a means of gathering intelligence. You need to look at every negotiation you have as a battle. You then need to consider that the best generals in war, the best strategists, are the ones that are flexible. If you can adapt to your various opponents' strengths and weaknesses, you will be better able to overcome him. I've talked about Miyamoto Musashi once before, and he makes for an excellent subject once again. Musashi and his enemiesMusashi was a young Japanese swordsman. He had previously fought two duels with members of the Yoshioka family. At each duel, he showed up late to anger his opponent. He defeated each. When a third member of the family challenged him to a duel, Musashi used this intelligence to adapt to the situation, creating an innovative strategy. Instead of showing up late, he came very early. He waited in a tree for his opponent to arrive. His opponent, angered with Musashi's previous disrespectful actions, brought along a small army. As Musashi was nowhere to be seen, his enemy assumed that he would arrive late, as he did at his previous two battles. He and the army lay down in wait. Musashi jumped out of the tree and killed the disoriented men. Soon after, Musashi found another suitable challenge, a warrior named Baiken. Baiken was known for using a sickle and a long chain with a steel ball attached to the end. Baiken would begin the duel by swinging the chain, forcing his opponent backward and off-balance. He would then throw the ball at his enemy, who would be forced to deflect it. When he did, Baiken would kill him with the sickle. Musashi brought one short sword and one long sword to the duel, something no one had done against Baiken. Baiken became reluctant to throw the ball at Musashi, because he could deflect it with one sword and strike him with the other. Upon the start of the duel, Musashi charged Baiken, who was unable to build up momentum with the ball. He knocked him off balance with the short sword and struck with the long, killing him. In a third duel, Musashi played on his opponent's emotions. Facing one of the greatest warriors in a country known for its customs, Musashi arrived very late, lying down in a boat, whittling a piece of wood that he would use as a sword. As he got off the boat, he tied a dirty towel to his head as a headband. His attitude was extremely cocky, and he made nonsensical remarks that further infuriated his enemy. This caused his enemy to make a careless mistake in battle that afforded Musashi an opportunity to defeat him. Adapting to your enemyMusashi understood the importance of adapting to his enemy. He would discover his enemy's weakness and would exploit it. This is exactly what we must do with our trading partners. We must collect as much information as possible about them, and then use the approach that will be most effective. This will change from person to person, and it may even change for the same person on occasion. We must always be aware and attentive. It is easy to simply send a generic trade offer via e-mail, but without knowledge of your opponent, its chances for success are relatively slim. Concluding thoughtsIf you think I failed to include useful information a trading owner should seek, feel free to send me an e-mail. As Lenny Melnick recently said, "Trading is a definite art." It is more art than science, and when it comes to intelligence gathering, you can never have enough. I am sure that I left some potential questions out. If I get some good ones from you, I'll be sure to make a post with them. On a completely unrelated note, I'll be a guest on Elliott Price's radio show this Sunday at 2 pm EDT. Elliot Price is a former play-by-play announcer for the Montreal Expos. If you're interested in listening, I believe you can access it at http://www.mcnsports.com/. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:01am Tuesday, March 25, 2008Injurious flaws of B.J. Ryan: What to expectJeremy Accardo will start the season as Toronto's closer due to B.J. Ryan's inevitable return to the 15-day disabled list. This is certainly no surprise to me, as he came back at least two months prematurely from his recovery from Tommy John (TJ) surgery. Ryan had struggled with soreness in his pitching forearm, and in his biceps. What lies right in between these two anatomical regions? You guessed it—his surgical site. The soreness he is experiencing is likely due to deconditioned muscles, as well as the fact that these surrounding muscle groups are working harder to stabilize the medial aspect of the elbow joint where his ligament reconstruction took place. This is aside from the fact that his pitching motion places extraordinary stress on this area, even when healthy. Right now, Toronto is planning for a best-case scenario of a mid-April return to action. While this is certainly possible, if Accardo performs like he did last season, there will be no need to rush Ryan. Actually, it would be in his best interest to simply sit out six to eight weeks and allow for proper healing and rehabilitation. This would at least put him on course for a more reasonable return from TJ surgery. Pitching mechanics: an overviewAs I have alluded to before, Ryan has perhaps the most injury-prone pitching mechanics in baseball. Even when he does return, he is a sure-fire bet to end up on the DL again due to the herky-jerky timing of his left elbow and shoulder motion during his windup and delivery. He would benefit from a major overhaul of those. Do the pitching coaches in Toronto have any plans to change his mechanics? As Chris O'Leary describes his arm action, he presents with a major "inverted L," a term that pinpoints the significant internal rotation of the shoulder as he brings the ball back behind him and the subsequent rapid external rotation of the shoulder that ensues. This is dangerous because his rotator cuff has to work unfathomably hard to slow down his arm during the internal rotation phase, return his arm into external rotation in preparation for the high cocking phase, and prevent the shoulder from experiencing too much stress in its anterior (front) as he brings the pitching arm toward home plate. He places a tremendous amount of strain on the external rotators of the shoulder, the internal rotators of the shoulder, the anterior shoulder and labrum, and the muscles and ligaments of the medial aspect of the elbow. Also, how are you supposed to deliver the ball appropriately toward home plate if you are leaning significantly toward first base? The fact that nobody has corrected this is absolutely astounding. Combine this with the fact that he "whips" the ball toward home plate with an across-the-body motion—with his body ultimately falling toward first base. The reason he falls toward first? Locking his plant leg creates a situation where his body can no longer rotate to the right (toward home plate), so his momentum is stopped and shifts back to the left as he advances his trunk over the plant leg. This is a cause for concern because his meniscus cartilage likely is going to grind away and cause problems, much like is the case with Brad Lidge. Not only that, but the rapid collision of the articulating surfaces of the femur, tibia and patella are going to create a formation of bone where the surfaces meet, which over time can lead to decreased mobility of the knee joint and pain. There are so many injurious flaws to his pitching motion. He raises his pitching side forearm with his elbow on the way up to the high cocking phase. The shoulder is externally rotating before his elbow gets to this point, creating a subsequent whip-like motion of the shoulder and elbow. Think of the sound of a whip cracking. This is Ryan's elbow and shoulder with each pitch he delivers. 2008 Fantasy ExpectationsWith all that is wrong with his pitching mechanics, and the lengthy injury history he has, you surely cannot expect a full season's worth of save opportunities from B.J. Ryan. If you drafted him, you must have an alternative plan—either Accardo, another closer or a few relievers who have potential for closer's gigs later this year (Tony Pena, Jonathan Broxton, Rafael Betancourt, et al). I would be surprised if Ryan he ends up with the majority of saves in Toronto this season. Projections: 42 GP, 1-2, 39 IP, 38 H, 18 SV, 18 BB/35K, 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP Posted by Chris Neault at 12:21pm Monday, March 24, 2008Injury Implications: draft day 2008First off, I would like to introduce myself to the loyal readers of The Hardball Times. My name is Chris Neault, and I am a licensed Physical Therapist with a background in baseball. I write a baseball injury analysis blog called The Disabled List Informer, which deals with the fantasy baseball implications of the very injuries that are sustained by the players. After having read my blog over a period of time, the management of THT approached me and asked me if I would write for the site—to which I agreed. I am certainly honored to have such an opportunity to be able to contribute to a site with such esteemed and well-respected baseball minds, as well as to inform their assemblage of information-thirsty readers. Now, on to the insight… Injury Implications for draft dayIf you are reading this column, you undoubtedly are addicted to fantasy baseball and have more than likely been catching up on all the latest news pertaining to injuries around the league. Some injuries leave players with a clear prognosis and expected return date, while others are already listed as “out for the season.” In these situations, most fantasy managers can plan their drafts and waiver wire claims accordingly. The problem is that these situations are becoming less commonplace, as teams are disclosing less and less information in an attempt to avoid a media firestorm, and perhaps to gain a competitive advantage over their opponents. Managers are offering vague explanations of their players’ injuries. GMs are painting optimistic views of the situation, when there really should be no reason to expect anything less than the worst. This is where I come in: to offer you some additional nuggets of information that could mean the difference between a draft day steal and a draft day blunder. Here are the most noteworthy injuries thus far in the early part of the 2008 season. The players with links have additional analysis at my blog: Catcher:Joe Mauer, Minnesota: Left leg injuries galore for this uber-talented backstop. He has suffered injuries to the left quadriceps, left hamstrings, left ankle, and left knee. There is clearly something biomechanically wrong here. Unless Minnesota finds him 100-150 at bats as the DH, look for him to spend one or two stints on the DL with some form of “left lower extremity injury.” First Base:Albert Pujols, St. Louis: Do you really want to spend a first round pick on someone who could spend the season on the DL with one swing of the bat? I wrote back in February that Pujols should be avoided in the first round, and possibly even the second. He has a very involved right elbow, one that includes arthritis, bone spurs, and torn ligaments. This does not sound too promising, despite what Pujols says. The mere presence of bone spurs scares me even more because the rough edges of bone can act like a serrated knife when contacting the ligament (Ulnar Collateral Ligament). Even his Doctors are concerned that surgery could happen. Buyer beware. Daric Barton, Oakland: He is back playing without restriction, but is coming off left wrist and elbow injuries. He is hitting just .172 this spring, so you have to wonder if he is still struggling with the wrist, which was jammed while applying a swipe tag in June 2007. If it were a minor thing, you’d think he’d be over it by now. Draft only as a bench player in most formats towards the last one or two rounds. Lance Berkman, Houston: The robust slugger is once again dealing with a strained left oblique muscle. He seems to have this injury every season—each of the past five seasons, to be exact. He has since returned from this injury, but unless he changes his strengthening and conditioning program, he will likely continue to strain this muscle group. When injured, these muscles cannot provide the torsion of the trunk that is necessary to generate significant bat speed, and a lack in power production ensues. I would draft him as you normally would, but have a reliable backup plan if you do decide to draft The Caveman. Carlos Delgado, N.Y. Mets: Just plain old. I would bet that his “hip flexor strain” is actually an arthritic hip. I mean, how does a 35-year-old first baseman strain a hip flexor if he never runs hard? His right hip is the one we are talking about here: the one that he strides with and needs to rotate his trunk over to the right. What this does is create compression in the joint, leading to wearing away of the articulating surfaces in the hip joint. It is also possible that he is wearing out his labral cartilage. I would expect more of the same in 2007 production in 2008, and perhaps even less. He cannot be relied upon to be your starting first baseman this year, but is a decent plug-in when healthy. Second Base:Freddy Sanchez, Pittsburgh: Not much news on Freddy’s right shoulder, except that he is experiencing some pain while throwing. This is the same surgery that he had minor surgery on in the offseason. The good news? He plays second base and has short throws. The bad news? If his rotator cuff is tight or inflamed, he will have trouble with his follow-through as he swings the bat. Since he’s only good for solid batting average, if he cannot swing without pain, he is useless to own. Leave him on the free agent list if you have better options, otherwise draft him in the last 5-6 rounds and stash him away. Rickie Weeks, Milwaukee: We are all hoping for a breakout season in 2008. Even I had been hyping the promising youngster earlier this year, noting his excellent second half splits. He sustained yet another right hand injury last week after sliding head first and jamming his fingers. He is hitting well under .200 this spring and is striking out at an alarming rate thus far. You have to wonder if we are all guilty of wishful thinking, but at the same time, I really do believe that the majority of his surgery-related maladies are behind him. The talent is there. You gotta believe. He is certainly worth a starting second base gig on your fantasy squad if you miss out on the top two tiers, as his potential is top-five at the position—possibly top-three. Third Base:Hank Blalock, Texas: I truly believe that the downward spiral in his production over the past couple of seasons was due to the progression of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, for which he had corrective surgery for. The power will return, now that the nerves of the brachial plexus are not being compressed, and now that the pain is gone. Hank can be taken as, in my opinion, the top deep sleeper of the 2008 draft. Derek Carty agrees. Pencil him in at third base and watch him ascend to the the 30-35 home run plateau once again. 100+ RBIs are not out of the question here, so draft with confidence. Eric Chavez, Oakland: When you’re dealing with back injuries, especially at a position like third base, where bending at the waist and diving in all directions is paramount, you really cannot expect much success. Such is the case with Chavez, whose chronically hurting low back has continued to hamper his 2008 aspirations. You simply cannot draft him as your starting third baseman, and I am even pondering whether or not he’s worth a bench spot in mixed leagues at this point. He is likely starting the season on the DL. Andy LaRoche, L.A. Dodgers: The right thumb injury sustained by LaRoche is serious, and will hinder his bat handling skills, even when he returns to action, which is looking like late-July at the earliest. I would forego drafting LaRoche in all mixed leagues, but consider stashing him for NL-only leagues. Keeper leaguers can draft him with confidence, but realize that 2008 is a lost cause. Scott Rolen, Toronto: Rolen fractured his middle finger and tore his finger nail off on Sunday, after being struck by a batted ball at third base. This injury is nothing major, but it will sideline him for around six weeks. If you are relying on Rolen for your fantasy team in mixed leagues, you should be looking forward to 2009. Shortstop:Hanley Ramirez,SS, Florida: There is nothing to worry about here. He had shoulder surgery in the offseason, but is raring to go and all signs are positive early on. At the worst, I would expect a dropoff in steals, as he will be hesitant to dive head first in fear of subluxing the shoulder. He is still an elite player at a scarce position, and is absolutely worthy of a top-three selection. Outfield:Carlos Beltran, N.Y. Mets: Until recently, he was unable to run at anywhere close to full speed due to offseason knee surgery. He has been playing the field over the past week or so, so perhaps he is making progress. Chances are that when the season rolls around and there is little time to take breaks and recover, that Beltran will experience knee pain. It is a very real possibility that Beltran will land on the 15-day DL once or twice this season. Keep this in mind as you prepare for your drafts. He is likely to run less than in previous seasons, thus limiting his fantasy production. Curtis Granderson, Detroit: A non-displaced fracture of his right middle finger should be of no concern to you. He will miss four weeks, but then return without restrictions. No surgery is needed here. Draft him as you normally would, and reserve him on the DL for the first few weeks of the season. Moises Alou, N.Y. Mets: A hernia repair will sideline Alou until early to mid-April at the earliest. We all are familiar with his recovery times from various injuries through the years, so we can almost certainly guarantee an eight-week recovery here. He remains one of the greatest injury risks in all of MLB. I simply ignore that he’s available on draft day, and so should you. Vladimir Guerrero, L.A. Angels: His sore right knee sounds like arthritis or chondromalacia (an irritation of the cartilage of the kneecap). I would expect this to bother him on and off all season long. He is such a good hitter, and handles the bat so well that I would not expect a huge dropoff in production due to this. The Angels may need to find him some time at DH this season, though, if he continues to complain of this. Starting Pitcher:Kelvim Escobar, L.A. Angels: Another pitcher complaining of shoulder “inflammation.” He is currently rehabilitating the shoulder, and has resumed throwing this week from 45 feet. There was nothing “structurally wrong” with his shoulder, so you have to assume that the muscles and tendons were merely overworked and needed to get stronger. He is set to return sometime in late May, which limits his fantasy production but also gives you 20-25 starts from a nice upside pitcher with strikeout potential. Anytime he gets close to 200 innings, he is bound for trouble. Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee: He should be good to go following minor surgery to clean up a lateral meniscus tear in his left knee. He will miss the first couple of weeks of the regular season, but should be set to return without issues thereafter. I would still draft him in the middle rounds, but I would take Lincecum before him. Expect him to miss no more than one to three starts. Scott Kazmir, Tampa Bay: Kazmir is the prime example of the attempt to “hide” injuries. Manager Joe Maddon has not been very forthcoming in his analysis or information pertaining to Kazmir’s elbow. This is a bona fide red flag, when a manager is overly vague on a player’s health. Combine that with the location of the pain (inner elbow), the nature of the injury (hyperextension of the elbow), the fact that he threw over 3500 pitches last season, and that his most recent start was scratched, and you have yourself a pitcher you cannot rely on as your staff ace. I would not draft him currently, unless in an AL-only league, or a mixed league with three or more DL spots available. John Lackey, L.A. Angels: Inner elbow pain is not something that you want to have. Lackey logged over 3500 pitches last season, and over 200 innings in four of his six major league seasons. He also has started 32-33 games in each of the past five seasons. With these stats, and his complaints of elbow pain, there is no question that father time is catching up with his elbow. He is bound for the DL to start the season, and if he does not bounce back in the next month, you can be certain that an extended stay on the shelf will be next. Let’s hope for his sake that he does not require Tommy John surgery. Randy Johnson, Arizona: He is 44 years old, and has a balky low back. If this doesn’t sound inspiring, its because it isn’t. He is going to have good weeks, and bad weeks. At this age, you have to assume the worst, and know that he’ll have more bad than good. If he is forced to the DL for a lengthy period of time, I wouldn’t put it past him to simply retire. Pedro Martinez, N.Y. Mets: The wily old veteran is throwing well in spring training, coming off a major rotator cuff repair. Expect his innings to be down—well below 200—but it is conceivable that he win 10-12 games with 140 or so strikeouts. He is crafty enough, and smart enough, to know that he can’t throw 100+ pitches every night and expect to stay healthy. He is a better bet to produce fantasy-worthy numbers than Randy Johnson. Jason Schmidt, L.A. Dodgers: He is pitching through pain in his surgically repaired right shoulder, by the advice of his own trainers. This is simply terrible pitcher management. Though you have to feel badly for Schmidt, you simply cannot draft him. Chris Capuano, Milwaukee: Out for the season, with yet another torn UCL. Tommy John surgery is the most likely outcome here. Do not draft. Drop in all formats, keeper and otherwise. Relief PitcherB.J. Ryan, Toronto: I cannot stress this enough: do not draft him as your top closer. This is a horror show in the making, as the combination of a premature return to pitching with his injury-conducive pitching mechanics is destined to be a formula for a prolonged DL stint, if not worse. Elbow pain at or near the site of the surgery, a mere 10 months after Tommy John surgery is certainly a cause for concern. You have been warned—again. C.J. Wilson, Texas: Biceps irritation or “biceps tendonitis” is a sure-fire red flag for me when diagnosing injuries to the pitching shoulder. Why? The biceps attaches directly to the labrum, which is an oft-repaired cartilage of the pitching shoulder. Wilson was recently diagnosed with this, which is why I advise caution here. If you draft Wilson, make sure to get either Joaquin Benoit or Kazuo Fukumori. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia: This past offseason, Brad Lidge had arthroscopic surgery to debride a medial meniscus tear in the right knee in October. This preseason, he is set to have the same knee scoped tomorrow for what appears to be another tear in the same meniscus. When the first surgery was performed, the cartilage on the inner half of the knee was trimmed, shaved down, rested, then rehabilitated. The fact that the cartilage re-tore so soon following the first procedure tells me one of a few things are possible: 1. he rushed back too soon and was not ready to stress the knee with pitching-specific activities 2. the procedure itself was not "up to snuff", i.e. there were some loose edges remaining in the meniscus 3. Lidge is predisposed to this particular injury due to his bodily makeup—particularly due to foot or thigh posture, thus placing greater torque on the meniscus. Lidge should be out for at least six weeks. The fact that the knee became swollen immediately leads me to believe that the tear could be significant. Two meniscus surgeries in a short period of time is not a good recipe for the health of one's knee going forward. He will always be more predisposed to generalized knee pain, tendonitis, and other maladies of the knee. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
