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July 20, 2008
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 Tuesday, July 15, 2008Trade strategy: Propaganda and Paul DePodesta’s recent exampleIn the book The 33 Strategies of War, author Robert Greene says that the three types of deception in warfare are "the gathering of intelligence, the spreading of misinformation, and the use of propaganda." We've talked before about the importance of gathering intelligence and the spreading of counter-intelligence, but we've never talked about propaganda. This is mostly because it's so difficult to pull off in fantasy baseball. Types of propagandaThe purpose of propaganda is to sway the opinions of your opposing owners or deceive them in some way. In fantasy baseball, though, nearly all contact is direct, and an owner will always be skeptical of what you tell them. After all, you're looking out for your own interests and doing (and saying) whatever is necessary to win the league. How can what you say be seen as anything other than a means to those ends? The most effective form of propaganda is third-party propaganda. This is information coming from someone other than you. Since anything you say will always be viewed as having an ulterior motive, things that come from sources other than you will always be more effective. Third-party propaganda can be difficult to arrange, so aside from direct propaganda, there is also indirect propaganda. Indirect propaganda are things that come from you but aren't said directly to your opponent. While fantasy managers must rely heavily upon direct propaganda, a real life baseball front office has additional avenues by which to spread messages. Not only do they have direct communication with each other, they can send messages through the media or, in the case of Paul DePodesta and the San Diego Padres, by creating a blog. By sending messages through the media, the front office can send them under the guise of praise for the actual players or on-field management. By writing to a blog, these messages can be sent under the guise of informing the team's fan base. Paul DePodesta's exampleThis brings us to today's topic. I absolutely loved this recent post at Paul DePodesta's blog. I highly recommend going over there and reading the entire thing, and I'll pull out the specific excerpts that I liked here. He essentially implies that this post, like the rest of the blog, is a way of communicating with the team's fans. I believe that the post had another intended use, though, as indirect propaganda. DePodesta provides a nice cover for this post by first asking the opinion of the fans. He waits a few days, then creates this post, qualifying it as a response to these opinions. He takes the first half of the article to talk about the way the trade and free agent markets intertwine and how this affects a team's decision making. Only later, after this pretext is out of the way, does he go on to discuss his own players, which he has already established an obligation to discuss by soliciting the fan opinions. Let's first note the type of GM that DePodesta is aiming this propaganda towards. Some of the more intelligent GMs—Billy Beane, Theo Epstein-types—likely figured out immediately what DePodesta is doing. They know DePodesta too well to think that he actually uses the stats he mentions or puts too much emphasis on concepts like "veteran leadership." Other GMs, maybe a Pat Gillick or Ed Wade-type, might be a little easier to fool. While they might get the gist of what DePodesta is doing, his use of these statistics (that he almost certainly doesn't use) and concepts definitely could have gone unnoticed. The first quote I liked comes in regard to Greg Maddux: There is no doubt, though, that the interest in Greg is strong. He says something similar later on about Randy Wolf: Randy is another guy who is on the collective radar of the buyers at this point and for good reason. As we said, direct propaganda is less effective than indirect propaganda, which is less effective than third-party propaganda. This is a mix of indirect and third-party propaganda. It is coming from DePodesta, but he immediately points out that lots of teams have inquired about Maddux and Wolf. If lots of other teams like them, they must be pretty good, right? He points out Maddux's 3.90 ERA as the measure that still makes him an "effective pitcher." He then picks out another arbitrary stat that shows Maddux in a favorable light, especially in the context of a trade deadline: In fact, the last time Greg was traded at the deadline to a contender, which was in 2006, he went 6-3 with a 3.30 ERA over 74 innings down the stretch. Previous to the trade he had posted a 4.69 ERA. Ipso-flipso, Maddux gets better when he gets traded! I do like Maddux as a pitcher, but not for these reasons. These are, however, the types of stats that will catch the eyes that DePodesta is trying to catch. He doesn't drop a stat along the lines of LIPS ERA or xFIP because this would have no effect on GMs like Gillick and Wade. He knows his men well and seems to tailor the second-half of the post to them, without them necessarily knowing it. I have a feeling the vast majority of the fans reading Paul DePodesta's blog know that ERA is a flawed stat. He also says that Maddux "provides a veteran playoff presence" and that "he's Greg Maddux, he's a winner, and every team that he's on is better because he is there. There is no doubt that the rest of our pitchers have benefited from his counsel." In the same vein, nearly the entire section on Tony Clark talks about him being a great clubhouse guy. Now, I do believe that a pitcher like Greg Maddux can share valuable information with his fellow pitchers and can make them better to an extent, but I don't think he's as good as all that. He'll be with whatever team he goes to for two months; he won't be magically transforming Adam Eaton into a Cy Young candidate. Paul probably feels this way too, to some degree at least, but regardless of his own feelings, he knows his enemy and plays into his beliefs. Perhaps my favorite quote comes in his discussion of Randy Wolf. His collective line of 109 innings, 109 hits, 42 walks, and 100 k's is one of the better lines you'll find during this deadline, but his line of 101 innings, 95 hits, 33 walks, and 94 k's (3.48 ERA) without those two starts is even more indicative of the pitcher he has been. In fact, his 12 quality starts ranks 7th in the NL behind Haren, Lincecum, Hudson, Santana, Webb, and Volquez. The last line is what I really liked. The cherry-picking of stats is a nice touch, but the Quality Start reference was perfect. Quality Starts is just "nerdy" enough to be something DePodesta could conceivably use, in the eyes of his target GMs, but also a stat that has started to make it's way into mainstream statistics enough that they likely understand it. It is really a meaningless stat, but it has a cool, official sounding name, and finding that Wolf is in the company of great pitchers like Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, Tim Hudson, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, and Edinson Volquez and going as far as to drop their names was, in my opinion, a perfectly executed line. For the GMs like Beane and Epstein who know exactly what DePodesta is doing, that's okay. He's at the same place with these guys that he was before posting this entry. We talked earlier in the year about the advantages of feigning weakness, but this isn't always the right strategy. Every sound strategy has it's place, and for a guy like DePodesta, the time to fly under the radar has long passed in the eyes of these GMs. Beane, Epstein, and Co. know that he is an intelligent exec, so doing something like this doesn't change their opinion of him at all. They know he's intelligent, they know he understands outside-the-box concepts like this, and this is just another example of him doing it. It does help him, however, when dealing with a GM who is fooled by his intentions. That's not to say any will be — there's a real possibility I'm not giving certain GMs enough credit — but it certainly doesn't hurt anything. Of course, this isn't perfect propaganda. It is still coming from the mouth of San Diego's front office, but it certainly seems like one of the most effective possible pieces of propaganda that isn't coming from a third-party source. Let's imagine that Paul DePodesta instead went to, let's say, Phillies GM Pat Gillick and said, "Greg Maddux is Greg Maddux. He's a very good pitcher, a great veteran leader, makes every team he's on better, and has made all of our pitchers better." This would come across as pushy and might receive a response of "If he's so good, why are you trying so hard to trade him?" Paul could easily respond, "He's going to be a free agent and we don't think we're going to contend," but Gillick would still be a little suspicious and, depending on his personality, maybe a little put off to dealing with Paul and the Pads. Instead, his comments in the blog post are unassuming and perfectly veiled by the motive of communicating with the fan base. And of course, the purpose of DePodesta's blog (or even this post) isn't solely as a means of propaganda. I'm not even sure if Paul did this intentionally (although I wouldn't be surprised at all if he did). The blog has many benefits, but I singled this one out since it can be discussed in the context of fantasy baseball. Fantasy baseball applicationsUnfortunately, in fantasy baseball, we have very few ways of creating non-direct propaganda. Short of striking a deal with another owner to spread it for each other (whereupon we run into some serious ethical considerations), we don't have many options. A strategy I tried out in one league last year was that of creating "press releases" for every move my team made. This was a way of talking about my players without addressing any one owner in particular and without seeming pushy (although some owners did consider it arrogant). I made sure to do it for every single move my team made and some days just to talk about how my players were doing. Some would trash players; some would praise them. Some had no ulterior motives whatsoever, so that when I was going to have one, it was well concealed. I would send them to all owners and post them on the league message board. I would keep notes about which owners I thought were reading them and trying to gain information about my mindset. To a moderately astute owner, it can be pretty transparent what you're doing if you don't choose your words very carefully. I mean, the concept of a press release in fantasy baseball to begin with is a strange, rarely used one and draws immediate attention and suspicion. Some owners, you might find, are simply befuddled by this and don't give it a second thought (our intention), some will consider it trash talk (another non-harmful, but not ideal, reaction), others will see through it, and some owners will just think you're full of yourself. Be careful, because these owners could form a negative opinion about you that could potentially affect trade dealings. Knowing the personalities of the other owners can help you decide whether this is a smart tactic to employ. Concluding thoughtsOverall, there isn't an incredibly strong parallel here, but I wanted to bring this all to your attention anyway. It was very well crafted, and it serves as a reminder and an example of the type of thinking we need to be engaging in. If you guys have any thoughts on how we could use propaganda as a tool in fantasy baseball, I'd love to hear them. If I like any, I'll be sure to post them here. Posted by Derek Carty at 12:09am Monday, July 14, 2008Player spotlight: Chase UtleyI've gotten a few questions about Chase Utley after posting my introductory article on True Home Runs the other day. True Home Runs didn't think Utley was as good as he looked in 2006, and his HR/FB regressed in 2007. This year, however, it has skyrocketed. Given these questions, I thought Utley would be a great first player to spotlight using True Home Runs. Contact+------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-----+ | YEAR | LAST | FIRST | BA | tBA | CT% | BABIP | mBABIP | LD% | tHR | +------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-----+ | 2005 | Utley | Chase | 0.291 | 0.279 | 79.93 | 0.320 | 0.304 | 23.18 | 0 | | 2006 | Utley | Chase | 0.309 | 0.283 | 79.94 | 0.346 | 0.328 | 19.54 | 24 | | 2007 | Utley | Chase | 0.332 | 0.321 | 83.21 | 0.368 | 0.344 | 19.64 | 26 | | 2008 | Utley | Chase | 0.294 | 0.289 | 83.71 | 0.291 | 0.310 | 23.91 | 18 | +------+-------+-------+-------+-------+--------+-------+--------+-------+-----+ You probably see a few columns you're not familiar with, and I realize all these new stats are a lot take in. You have my apologies, but they are pretty intuitive and should give us a much clearer picture of a player's true talent. mBABIP stands for Marcels BABIP, and tBA stands for True Batting Average. mBABIP is the BABIP Marcels projects from this point until the end of the season (for previous seasons, it was what Marcels predicted after the season was complete). A big thanks to fellow THTer Sal Baxamusa for his help with this. tBA uses the player's actual contact rate, mBABIP, tHR and actual fly ball rate to calculate what we should expect his batting average to be. I talked about how these three stats interact in this article. As a side note, for 2005 (before we had HitTracker and True Home Runs), actual home runs were used to calculate tBA. Introductions to these stats out of the way, let's look at today's subject: Chase Utley. Utley's contact rate sat just below 80 percent in 2005 and 2006, but jumped to 83 percent in 2007. This year, we see that he has improved it to 84 percent, so we can say with pretty good confidence that this is his new level of production. His BABIP has been all over the place but always solid, and his current mBABIP stands at .310 since his 2008 actual BABIP is the lowest of his career. Given this fact, his 23 percent line drive rate, and his excellent 2006 and 2007 BABIPs, there is definitely some upside here. We'll talk more about his True Home Runs in the next section, but his tHR/FB is up some from previous years and has a positive impact on his tBA. All of this results in a final .289 True Batting Average, not far removed from his actual .294 average. His 2008 contact skills are very much for real, though I don't think there was much of a question here. Those hoping he would jump back up to his 2007 or even his 2006 level could be disappointed, however this is a possibility given the BABIP upside previously noted. Power+------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+------+--------+----------+ | YEAR | LAST | FIRST | HR | tHR | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | OF FB% | LW POWER | +------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+------+--------+----------+ | 2005 | Utley | Chase | 28 | 0 | 16.87 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 37.73 | 17.33 | | 2006 | Utley | Chase | 32 | 24 | 16.33 | 12.24 | 11.22 | 2.55 | 37.19 | 15.21 | | 2007 | Utley | Chase | 22 | 26 | 12.36 | 14.61 | 14.61 | 3.93 | 39.73 | 16.60 | | 2008 | Utley | Chase | 25 | 18 | 21.19 | 15.25 | 14.41 | 5.93 | 39.73 | 19.32 | +------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+--------+--------+------+--------+----------+ Now for what you've been waiting for: Utley's power. If you missed the introductory article to True Home Runs, you can read about these stats here, or a quick explanation here: Every homer is run through HitTracker in two environments: a league average park with league average weather and the hitter's home park with average weather for that park. The homers that are given a No Doubt label are counted up and then put into a proportion using the league average percentage of No Doubters. This is done for both environments and we take the average of the two to arrive at a final True Home Run total. We see that his HR/FB (Home run per Outfield fly, actually), is up nearly nine points from last year and is nearly five points above his previous career high. He already has 25 homers, and many are predicting he'll hit 40 when all is said and done. His True Home Run numbers, however, should give us some pause. His tHR/FB is definitely on the rise (as is his nHR/FB and Raw Power), but his 21 percent actual HR/FB definitely looks inflated. We've begun to see some regression already, as Utley has posted just a 13.6 percent HR/FB (that includes infield flies, however, and excluding them might put him around 15 percent) since the beginning of June. That is right around what True Home Runs says he should be doing, and this is right about the level we should expect him to perform at for the rest of the year. Those in keeper leagues, take note. Utley is 29 years old now, and while that doesn't exactly make him an old man, I don't know if we'll be seeing too much more improvement in his power skills. Our big three stats (tHR/FB, nHR/FB, RAW) have increased or stayed the same every year since 2006, but at this age he should begin regressing a little, possibly as soon as next year. Given his excellent performance thus far this year, I'd see what I could get for him on the open market (though his recent falloff hasn't gone unnoticed, and owners might not be willing to pay what they would have a month ago). I promised to give you some context for Raw Power in my last article, so here it is for those interested. League average Raw Power for 2006 and 2007 was 2.40. In addition, here is the top 25 leaderboard for 2007 (minimum 300 at-bats). Pretty ironic who's at the top, huh? And by quite the margin. +-----------+-----------+-------+ | LAST | FIRST | RAW | +-----------+-----------+-------+ | Bonds | Barry | 14.15 | | Fielder | Prince G | 11.46 | | Pena | Carlos | 10.34 | | Dunn | Adam | 9.33 | | Berkman | Lance | 8.45 | | Howard | Ryan J | 8.28 | | Duncan | Chris E | 8.16 | | Thome | Jim | 8.04 | | Upton | B.J. | 8.04 | | Rodriguez | Alex | 8.00 | | Fields | Josh | 7.29 | | Stairs | Matt | 7.02 | | Buck | John R | 6.93 | | Jones | Chipper | 6.92 | | Delgado | Carlos | 6.71 | | Reynolds | Mark A | 6.67 | | Martin | Russell N | 5.80 | | Hafner | Travis | 5.67 | | Sosa | Sammy | 5.43 | | Pujols | Albert | 5.35 | | Cust | Jack | 5.06 | | Weeks | Rickie | 5.00 | | Gonzalez | Adrian | 4.78 | | Ordonez | Magglio | 4.69 | | Jenkins | Geoff | 4.63 | +-----------+-----------+-------+ So while Utley's Raw Power this year (5.93) isn't among the absolute elite in the game, he is definitely up there. His score would have ranked 17th in baseball last year and second among second basemen. He is well above league average, a huge jump up from 2006 when his Raw Power was right around league average. As I said, though, I wouldn't expect him to gain much more power as he is passing his physical peak. Speed+------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+-------+--------+ | YEAR | LAST | FIRST | SB | SBA | SBO% | SBA% | SB% | +------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+-------+--------+ | 2005 | Utley | Chase | 16 | 19 | 0.260 | 11.66 | 84.21 | | 2006 | Utley | Chase | 15 | 19 | 0.276 | 9.31 | 78.95 | | 2007 | Utley | Chase | 9 | 10 | 0.287 | 5.68 | 90.00 | | 2008 | Utley | Chase | 9 | 9 | 0.289 | 8.91 | 100.00 | +------+-------+-------+----+-----+-------+-------+--------+ Utley's speed is more of a second thought, but he is on a pace that could see him eclipse his career high in stolen bases. He's reached first base (SBO%) at the greatest percentage of his career (which is incredible given all his extra-base hits) and has been successful on all nine of his attempts (SB%). He's stealing, when he has the opportunity (SBA%), more often than he did last year, though not as much as he did in 2005 or 2006. Utley won't keep up the 100 percent success rate, but he could definitely grab another five or six steals the rest of the way. Concluding thoughtsUtley is (obviously) a very good player and has very good power, though he is hitting more home runs than he should be. His batting average is for real, and there is a good deal of upside in that area. He's been successful so far on the basepaths as well and should be expected to get at least a handful of steals the rest of the way. I hope this covers all the Utley questions, and as I said in the introductory article to True Home Runs, if you have any requests for players to spotlight, feel free to send me an e-mail. Posted by Derek Carty at 7:18am Sunday, July 13, 2008Waiver Wire: National League (Week 15)Damaso Marte | PIT | CL - With Matt Capps on the DL, Marte is closing in Pittsburgh. He's probably gone in your league, but if not, get him. He's got great skills and will close for the next couple of months. There's a possibility he'll be traded (in which case Tyler Yates might become the guy to own), but apparently with Capps out the likelihood of this has diminished. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Manny Corpas | COL | RP - With the likelihood of a Brian Fuentes trade, Manny Corpas has to be owned. Two prominent Colorado beat writers wrote last week that Corpas would be the closer should this happen (over Taylor Buchholz), and GM Dan O'Down confirmed this yesterday. Corpas has posted an 8.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, and 53 percent ground ball rate since the beginning of June and could do quite well closing now that he seems right. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Jonathan Broxton | LAD | RP/CL - Takashi Saito left last night's game, and the extent of his injury is unknown. Broxton needs to be picked up in all league he isn't already owned in immediately. If Saito misses an extended period, Broxton would make an excellent closer. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Rich Harden | CHC | SP - For those in NL-only leagues, Harden has joined the ranks and is a fantastic pitcher while healthy. That's a big if, though, and I would be surprised if he stays healthy the rest of the way. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. C.C. Sabathia | MIL | SP - Same goes for C.C., minus the healthy concerns. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Josh Johnson | FLA | SP - Johnson pitched just 15.2 IP last year and is just coming off the DL now. He posted a TQS "Good" start in his first outing off the DL, and it would have been "Great" if he went another couple of innings. His 7.62 K/9, 3.90 BB/9, and 46 percent ground ball rate in his only full season (2006) wasn't great, though. He could be rusty after being out for so long, but apparently he's gained a couple of MPHs on his fastball. There is both upside and downside here, and he might be worth owning until we find out what kind of pitcher he really is. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues, for now. Chris Volstad | FLA | SP - Top Marlin prospect Chris Volstad also has joined the rotation, though I'm not sold on him. A 5.54 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 at Double-A? Not very good, and his numbers at the lower levels weren't much better. He does post ground ball rates in the mid-to-high 50s, but I still don't think he's a guy I'll be picking up in many leagues. Recommendation: Should be considered in deep mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Brett Myers | PHI | SP - Myers is a guy we might take a look at in a full-sized article, but he has been unlucky this year and has perpetually been mistreated by Philly. He could be back in the majors by the end of the month, and while his peripherals were a bit worse than recent years, he is still a good pitcher and doesn't deserve this treatment. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues. Chan Ho Park | LAD | SP - Park's 7.20 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, and 49 percent ground ball rate are pretty darn good for a guy most people wrote off a couple years ago. These came mostly out of the bullpen, but he has put up a 10.8 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in five starts this year. Out of nowhere, his pitches have picked up velocity (his fastball jumped from 88.4 MPH to 92.4 MPH since just last year), which might explain his increased strikeout rate. This might partially be due to pitching out of the 'pen, but 4 MPH is huge regardless. His peripherals aren't too far removed from his 2006 numbers (6.32 K/9 and 2.90 BB/9), and it isn't too big of a stretch to think he'll continue with these numbers. He's worth owning in certain leagues until we find out. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Jeff Francoeur | ATL | OF - Francoeur was recently sent down to the minors for three games and then recalled. His HR/FB has decreased four years in a row and it currently sits under 9 percent, but he has shown good power in the past and is still just 24 years old. Despite his age, strangely enough, he is nowhere near the power hitter he was in 2006 in terms of how far he's hitting them. Still, he could hit 8-10 homers the rest of the way given 300 at-bats. His BABIP is the lowest of his career and will probably rise. Even assuming his Marcels BABIP of .304, he would still only hit .265 or .270. He's batting sixth and could get some RBIs, but he doesn't take many walks and doesn't have great hitters behind him and might not score a ton of runs. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Andruw Jones | LAD | OF - Andruw is back from the DL, and many owners are wondering what to make of him since he'll have regular playing time with Juan Pierre being placed on the DL. Check out his True Home Run table: +------+-------+--------+-------+--------+--------+------+ | YEAR | LAST | FIRST | HR/FB | tHR/FB | nHR/FB | RAW | +------+-------+--------+-------+--------+--------+------+ | 2006 | Jones | Andruw | 26.11 | 20.38 | 22.29 | 8.92 | | 2007 | Jones | Andruw | 15.03 | 13.29 | 16.18 | 2.89 | | 2008 | Jones | Andruw | 5.26 | 14.32 | 15.48 | 2.63 | +------+-------+--------+-------+--------+--------+------+ While his power has dropped off a lot from 2006 to 2007 and a little bit from 2007 to 2008, it hasn't dropped off as far as his actual HR/FB indicates. Of course, he's only hit 2 home runs this year (one of which was a No Doubter in both environments) and has the small sample size caveat attached. This caveat, in addition to a .190 True Batting Average, makes Jones a pretty poor fantasy pickup. There's upside if his contact rate improves (it should), but he still probably wouldn't hit better than .220 unless his BABIP climbs a lot or his old power returns. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team NL-only leagues, for now. J.R. Towles | HOU | C - Towles is back in the majors and will start 80 percent of games. He had an unlucky .168 BABIP to start the year, but posted just a .273 BABIP when he was sent to the minors. His history indicates he's a better hitter than this, so it could all just be bad luck. Towles has a little bit of power, a little bit of speed, and okay contact skills. I'm not super excited about him, although the potential is there for him to be a top fantasy catcher. In deeper leagues, he's definitely worth speculating on. Recommendation: Should only be monitored in single-catcher mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10-team, single catcher mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues, for now. Jerry Hairston Jr. | CIN | 2B/SS/3B/OF - Since returning from the DL and couple weeks ago, Hairston has received nearly regular playing time and is batting lead-off most games. He should score a bunch of runs and is stealing a ton of bases. His batting average is inflated by a .377 BABIP, but his batting average will be good while he is hitting like this. After, he could fall as far as .250. He also doesn't have much power, but he's worth owning for now for the steals and runs. Recommendation: Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues, for now. J.J. Hardy | MIL | SS - J.J. Hardy is much the same player he has been the past few years with gradually improving skills. He's exhibiting more patience this year, has maintained most of his fly ball rate gains from last year, and has a much improved BABIP. His contact rate is down a bit, but his power looks pretty good. Assuming his mBABIP of .282, Hardy should hit .270 or so with 12 homers (given 300 at-bats) the rest of the way. Batting second helps with RBIs and runs, giving Hardy some good value in four categories. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:07am Saturday, July 12, 2008Waiver Wire: American League (Week 15)Sorry again for not having a Waiver Wire last week. The National League should be up later tonight or tomorrow. Octavio Dotel | CHW | CL: With Bobby Jenks on the DL and Scott Linebrink blowing two saves, Octavio Dotel is the guy to own. Jenks could be back shortly after the All-Star break, though, so Dotel might get only a couple of saves. He does need to be owned until Jenks returns, though. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Dan Wheeler/Grant Balfour | TB | CL: It's tough to get a read on the Tampa closer situation with Troy Percival on the DL, manager Joe Maddon talking about Wheeler as a possible All-Star, and then Maddon giving a save opportunity to Balfour a few hours later, but Wheeler is still my bet. It seems as though Chris Neault thinks Percival is at risk of reinjury once he returns, so be sure to keep an eye on whoever does win out here. Recommendation: Both should be owned in all leagues, for now. Masahide Kobayashi/Rafael Perez/Rafael Betancourt | CLE | CL: Cleveland's closer situation isn't quite as murky as Tampa, but there weren't any save opportunities this past week, so we don't know for sure who will even get the first one. Kobayashi seems like the favorite, followed by Perez and then Betancourt, even though Betancourt is the most talented of the three. He struggled in the role earlier in the year (bad luck) and continues to get unlucky, so I don't see the team trusting the ninth inning to him. Kobayashi has the worst skills of the bunch, and just a little bad luck could get him thrown from the role (assuming it is his to begin with). Kobayashi recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues, for now. Perez recommendation: Should be owned in all but shallow leagues, for now. Betancourt recommendation: Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP: Buchholz has been recalled and should spend the rest of the year in the rotation. He was unlucky to start the year, so his good stats in Triple-A (8.86 K/9, 3.50 BB/9) should come as no surprise. They aren't quite as good as I expected, but I could easily see Buchholz establishing himself as an ace in the second half. If he's still out there, go get him now. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Sean Gallagher | OAK | SP: The main piece coming to Oakland in the Rich Harden deal, Gallagher has the potential to be quite good. He's moving to the more difficult league, and the transition might not be completely smooth, but he does have talent. He has posted a 8.03 K/9 and 3.50 BB/9 in 11 starts so far this year and always had solid minor league stats, so he might be worth a shot in deep mixed leagues if he was dropped once demoted to Chicago's bullpen. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Matt Ginter | CLE | SP: Ginter hasn't pitched in the bigs since 2005, but he could be recalled to fill C.C. Sabathia's spot. He had just a 5.85 K/9, 2.88 BB/9, and 44 percent ground ball rate at Triple-A this year, and while his control has been better than this in the minors in recent years, I'm not expecting much of Ginter. AL-only at best. Hank Blalock | TEX | 3B/1B: I was big on Blalock coming into the year, but this injury has soured me a little bit. We've talked before about how wrist injuries can sap power, and I'm not expecting big numbers out of Blalock in the second half. He could put up a decent batting average with pretty good RBI and run numbers if he resumes hitting in the middle of the order, so he will be worth owning in some leagues, but if he struggles Chris Davis could push to take the first base job back. If his power doesn't seem to be affected, his recommendation would greatly improve. Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team and owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Adam Lind | TOR | OF: I talked about Lind's good power in the article introducing True Home Runs the other day, and he could be a nice second-half sleeper. He's one of those once-top prospects who never really exploded, but he could hit .275 (though there is plenty of room for fluctuation for Lind) with more than a dozen homers given 250 at-bats. There is a wide range of possible outcomes here, but Lind has the potential to be good. He would be better if he would be hit higher than eighth, though. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Jason Kubel | MIN | OF: Kubel still isn't getting regular playing time, but he really deserves it. He's having a quietly excellent year with a much improved 43 percent fly ball rate and very good 14 percent HR/FB. He could hit a dozen homers given 250 at-bats and hit .260 or so. Not great, but for those who need power, Kubel is a decent option. With more playing time and a good spot in the order, he could be quite valuable. Recommendation: Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 8-team AL-only leagues. Denard Span | MIN | OF: Span is starting in Minny with Michael Cuddyer on the DL and is tearing things up. His .426 BABIP is far too high, but he could hit .275 with considerable upside and provide a little bit of speed. He doesn't have much power, though, and is batting mostly ninth, so his value is limited. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Brett Gardner | NYY | OF: With Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui on the DL, Gardner is getting regular playing time. He's a huge asset for those looking for speed, and he already has five steals (71 percent stolen base attempt percentage!). He doesn't have much power and could struggle to hit .250 if his BABIPs aren't as good as they were in the minors, but the speed is there for those in need. He's also batted some leadoff, so he could score some runs as well given his good walk rates. He loses a lot of value once Damon or Matsui return. Recommendation: Should be considered in 14-team and owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Shin-Soo Choo | CLE | OF: Choo seems to have found regular playing time in Cleveland. I'm not sure how long it will last, though, and he doesn't look likely to help much. He could steal some bases, but he hasn't shown power since 2006 in the minors and might hit only .230 or so. Batting fifth and sixth will allow him to get some RBIs, but his lack of power will limit his potential here. He could score some runs if he continues hitting there given his pretty good speed and above average walk rates, but he won't help fantasy owners much in any one category and will hurt in a few. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Juan Rivera | LAA | OF: Rivera, starting in Los Angeles, was a very promising power hitter before missing most of last season and this one with injuries. He could hit a dozen homers the rest of the way (assuming 250 at-bats), but he could hit even more if his fly ball rate is anywhere near where it was last year (41 percent) or this year (48 percent). These were in limited at-bats, though, and it has been just 34 percent since 2002. Still, he could hit .275 with good amount of RBIs batting sixth, assuming his replacement of Gary Matthews Jr. is permanent. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Jeff Mathis | LAA | C: Mathis will fill in while Mike Napoli is on the DL, but he doesn't look like a very good pickup. His power isn't as good as his current 11 percent HR/FB indicates, though he does hit a lot of fly balls. I'm not expecting his .217 batting average to rise, though, and that will be a killer for many fantasy teams. Hitting eighth and ninth doesn't improve his value. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 14-team, single-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be owned in eight-team, two-catcher AL-only leagues. Posted by Derek Carty at 8:02pm Friday, July 11, 2008Chris Young: Not great before the facial injuryHeading into the 2008 season, San Diego’s Chris Young was perhaps one of the most hyped starting pitchers in fantasy baseball, and with good reason. He was coming off two consecutive stellar seasons that showed him posting some ridiculously low ERA, WHIP and BAA numbers, as well as some tantalizing strikeout ratios. To top it off, he plays in a pitcher-friendly home stadium. Unexpectedly, Young's production slid greatly downward. To make matters worse, he sustained a horrible facial injury that eventually required surgery. I had chronicled this injury at my Disabled List Informer site. In this article, I aim to compare Young’s 2008 PITCHf/x data with last season's to see if there are any glaring differences—changes that might help us understand what is going on with San Diego’s No. 2 starter. As I did with the Snell/Marcum article, I am using Josh Kalk’s data and player cards for my references and graphs. Once again, a huge thank you goes out to Josh. Velocity is diminishingLooking at the data, both his fastball and slider are showing decreased velocity compared to ’07, while both pitches are also displaying less horizontal and vertical movement. This could be a major reason he is giving up more solidly hit balls, as evident by his increased line drive percentage.
Slider(mph) Fastball(mph)
2007 80.70 90.12
2008 78.21 87.3Altered release pointAdditionally, his release point seems to be more straight-on in relation to home plate; in ’07, his release point was more toward the left side of home plate. This could mean that his fastball is staying out over the middle of the plate more, as opposed to busting right-handed batters inside and forcing lefties to reach. Possibly, this is a reason for his decreased GB rate (24 percent this season versus 29.1 percent last season). Here is the release point graph for 2007:  And here is the release point graph for 2008:  Flatter fastball and sliderPerhaps due to his altered release point, his fastball and slider have proven “flat” this season. By this, I mean that his pitches are not breaking or moving nearly as much, which obviously would lead to giving up more solidly hit balls. Less horizontal and vertical movement, with overall less velocity: In ’07, he was touching 94-95 mph with his fastball, but now he is maxing around 90-92 mph. Meanwhile, his slider is sitting mostly in the upper 70s to low 80s, but in ’07 it was nearing 83-84 mph. Here is a graph displaying the overall movement of his pitches in 2007 (seen without velocity):  And the same graph showing overall movement of his pitches in 2008:  As you can see, his slider is staying up in the zone and is not diving down and away from right-handed batters or down and in on left-handed batters. In the next graph (2007), he displayed greater velocity and more aggressive vertical movement on his pitches:  You can see clearly that his velocity has dropped in 2008 (see below):  Losing controlI recently posted an article at Fantasy Phenoms breaking down his performance from a Sabermetric and injury standpoint. One of the biggest negative aspects of his early 2008 performance has been his lack of control, as demonstrated by his increased walk rates. Typically, when an elbow injury is brewing (or present), a pitcher with normally good control will begin to issue more free passes. BB/9 K/BB Career 3.35 2.42 2007 3.75 2.32 2008 5.00 1.70 What does this mean?My initial thoughts are that he is probably changing the way he throws to prevent more injuries to his oblique muscles. This probably would mean using less forceful trunk rotation and a more linear delivery, which could take some "bite" and velocity away from his pitches. We would have to look at frame by frame comparative video from both seasons to confirm this, obviously. The other possibility is that he is dealing with some form of elbow or forearm injury. His drastic increase in walk rate is a source of concern; this can indicate a developing elbow pathology (it could also be coincidental). In any event, I am not overly optimistic about Young’s second half, especially given his statistical differences, his worsened control/increased walk rates, and the changes as seen through PITCHf/x. As an owner of Young in two leagues, I remain cautiously optimistic that he can return to form. Once he returns to action, I would not blame fantasy owners who want to sell while the selling is good. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
