THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by David Gassko at 12:52pm

Saturday, May 30, 2009

Clint Hurdle firing fallout

As you know, Clint Hurdle was fired a couple days ago and was replaced by bench coach Jim Tracy. So far, the fallout has seemed to impact Garrett Atkins, Clint Barmes, Troy Tulowitzki, and Ian Stewart the most. Tracy had very nice things to say about Atkins recently, who he has since promoted to the cleanup spot in the order (h/t Yahoo!'s RotoArcade):

"I sat over on the other side of the field in this ballpark for a number of years and I watched Garrett Atkins drive in over 200 and some odd runs over the course of a couple of different seasons. If we're going to turn some things around, he needs to be in the middle of our order...He just needs to find some green grass."

This spells bad news for Stewart, who will likely loose a little play time to Atkins. It also pushes Brad Hawpe to 5th in the order. Tracy's emergence also has had a positive impact on Clint Barmes, who has now batted 2nd in both games managed by Tracy. This pushes the struggling Tulowitzki down to 6th.

And if you're wondering — I don't imagine you are, but I'll continue anyway — these moves help me out in my leagues

. I've got Barmes in LABR NL and Atkins in FSIC NL.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:41pm (0) Comments

Alexi called up

Alexi Casilla will take over as the Twins starting second baseman while Nick Punto is on the DL with a strained groin. Casilla is worth a flier in AL-Leagues only as most likely he will be sent down to Triple-A upon Punto's return in the minimum 15 days. If Casilla does play well, however, he could steal the job from Punto, who was hitting just .187 with zero home runs before getting hurt.

Casilla was not any better in the majors earlier this season, batting a laughable .167/.231/.202 before getting sent down. His defense and hustle are also concerns, the Twins say.

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:45am

Friday, May 29, 2009

Emil Brown to Mets

NL-only leaguers take note: Emil Brown has been traded to the Mets. He'll be sent to Triple-A, but given the uncertain (read: pathetic) state of the Mets' outfield, he's a guy worth keeping tabs on or grabbing depending on your league's depth. He has some pop and speed that could be useful and would bat in a good lineup, although CitiField isn't the friendliest place for power hitters.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:00pm (0) Comments

Brett Myers and his replacement

It's looking like Brett Myers will be out for quite some time, if not for the rest of the season. GM Ruben Amaro said that "the Phillies immediately would look internally to fill the void in the rotation. He said Carlos Carrasco, Kyle Kendrick, Andrew Carpenter and Antonio Bastardo are candidates. It appears Chan Ho Park is not a candidate and will remain in the bullpen."

None make great options for mixed leaguers, but those in NL-only leagues could consider jumping on Bastardo and Carrasco, who mixed leaguers might want to keep an eye on. His trouble has always been control, but it has been pretty good (2.8 BB/9) in 85 Triple-A innings since mid-2008. Kendrick would only qualify for pickup in the deepest of NL-only leagues, and Carpenter really should be avoided in all leagues.

This also solidifies J.A. Happ's rotation spot for a while, and he could prove valuable in deeper mixed leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:37pm (0) Comments

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Mike Aviles | Kansas City | SS/2B
YTD: .183/.208/.250
True Talent: .267/.301/.401
Next Week Forecast: D/L
Aviles is one of the most difficult ballplayers to figure out. He was a non-prospect entering 2008 despite skipping A-ball and slugging .443 or higher in all but one minor-league season. Last year, he hit well in 441 PA, aided by a .353 BABIP; he even racked up +11 defensive runs in the BIS +/- system. In 2009, his defense is bad, his hitting is worse, and now he's hurt. We think that he has been playing hurt, and that he will rebound to those “True Talent” predictions—useful for AL-only leagues.

Danys Baez | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 6.2 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 3.58 ERA
True Talent: 6.0 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.27 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 saves, 4.03 ERA
It would seem reasonable to predict an expanded role for Baez, who has been the O's best pitcher in 2009. However, that's unlikely to happen despite their dire need for another SP and Sherrill's awful .288/.339/.538 line against RHB (career .262/.375/.398). The worse news is that Baez's stats can be expected to get worse, as his BABIP is only .192. Still, his new split-fingered fastball has led to a huge 60% GB%, and he can help an AL team in ratios and vultured Wins.

Michael Cuddyer | Minnesota | OF
YTD: .284/.371/.517
True Talent: .272/.354/.450
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 4 R, 4 RBI, .269 BA, 0.4 SB
The “hot” recommendation this week, Cuddyer has benefited from the ineffectiveness and health woes of his teammates. Reasons not to go crazy over him: a) His career Home/Road split is huge, and he has already played nine extra games at home (28-19; on the road, he's batting only .247/.321/.452). b) His HR/FB% is much higher than historically. c) He's still in a five-man OF/DH rotation, and if the other guys get hot, he'll sit some.

Josh Fields | Chicago | 3B
YTD: .229/.293/.314
True Talent: .245/.326/.422
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .248 BA, 0.2 SB
Whew, what a smelly start to Fields' season! We were sold on the “extra work” that Fields put in to retool his swing, and on the offseason fielding practice. But his CT% is under 69%, and his +/- shows -9 runs already in 2009. Without a Custian walk/homer package, or Flash-like speed, Fields can't get away with that. Expect slight improvement, but his job will soon be endangered by just-promoted-to-Triple-A Gordon Beckham.

Jason Isringhausen | Tampa Bay | RP
YTD: 3.6 K/9, 0.4 K/BB, 3.60 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.04 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 saves, 4.02 ERA
The “True Talent” level is hardly overwhelming, but “Izzy” has been fantastic as recently as 2007 ... and none of the other candidates to replace Percival are doing great. Wheeler has always been vulnerable to LHB (.281/.346/.487 career, worse in '09); the lefty Howell is more useful in a set-up role; Nelson and Balfour haven't pitched to their abilities; and Cormier is good for GB and multiple innings. If you're in need of Saves, Izzy is worth an extra buck even in larger mixed leagues.

Rob Johnson | Seattle | C
YTD: .211/.247/.316
True Talent: .243/.293/.349
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 0 R, 0 RBI, .249 BA, 0.1 SB
In two-catcher AL-only leagues only, the fact that slick-fielding Rob Johnson is getting playing time in Seattle becomes “interesting.” Johnson is a career .280 hitter in the minors, including a .305 BA last year at Triple-A at age 24. As his “True Talent” projection indicates, he's not ready to do that in the bigs, and he won't ever contribute much in any other category, but he won't kill a team, even after Johjima returns.

Brandon Morrow | Seattle | RP
YTD: 11.3 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 6.91 ERA, 6 Saves
True Talent: 9.5 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.70 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 saves, 4.59 ERA
It would seem that we sold David BB-rdsma short, though there's plenty of time for him to regain his wildness. In the meantime, Brandon Morrow has had control problems of his own (13 BB in 14.1 IP). Morrow has also been slighly unlucky (.329 BABIP, 14% HR/FB). Given the delays to change closers, it is safe to cut Morrow except in deeper formats. As the humongous K-rate suggests, he remains a good keeper, but inertia plays a big role in closer value.

Rick Porcello | Detroit | SP
YTD: 5.6 K/9, 2.00 K/BB, 3.48 ERA
True Talent: 3.9 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 5.96 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 wins, 2 K, 6.45 ERA
“Young pitchers break your heart.” That's an old roto saw that fantasy owners should keep in mind when wondering why “True Talent” seems to have scouted a different pitcher entirely. Porcello's 4.39 xFIP is higher than his current ERA, but it's still good enough to win in front of Detroit's offense. Expect his ERA to rise above even his current xFIP, and his WHIP to be around 1.40 after exposure and fatigue, but his numbers to be nowhere near as bad as these projections.

Juan Rivera | Los Angeles | OF
YTD: .293/.335/.415
True Talent: .273/.322/.442
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .271 BA, 0.1 SB
Juan Rivera has cut down his swing and is making more contact (91% CT) and hitting for a high BA without the aid of an egregiously high BABIP. This fits the Mike Scioscia/Micky Hatcher offensive paradigm, so expect the higher-AVG/lower-SLG batting line to continue. Now that Vlad is back, expect Rivera's AB to decline somewhat (though not as much as Matthews'). Rivera has almost always hit when he's healthy.

National League by Michael Street

Joel Hanrahan | WAS | RP
YTD: 11.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 5.64 ERA
True Talent: 9.1 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.87 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 Saves, 4.68 ERA
Hanrahan is back as the Nationals’ closer, making him an instant pick-up. His Achilles' heel is his walk rate; his 4.4 BB/9 in 2009 is a career best. He’s getting by on his strikeouts (if True Talent is right, he’ll still end up near his career high of 9.9 K/9), but look for his numbers to drift downward. Although Washington may not seem like an ideal location, winning teams aren’t always the best place to find saves. A must-add in NL leagues, and worth a spot in other leagues only if you need saves enough to take the ERA hit.

Kenshin Kawakami | ATL | SP
YTD: 7.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.73 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 2.9 K/BB, 4.28 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 12.0 IP, 0.7 wins, 11 K, 4.45 ERA
The Japanese import struggled early, going 1-3 in his first four starts with a 7.06 ERA and 18 K, 11 BB, and 5 HR. Since skipping a start to rest his shoulder, he has gone 2-3 with a 3.03 ERA, 26 K, 12 BB, and 0 HR. Kawakami won’t dominate, but True Talent shows his great control. If he keeps dodging the longball, he’ll offer above-average ratios and wins (assuming Atlanta can find its offense). A back-of-the-rotation guy in 12-plus team leagues, and mid-rotation in 10-plus team NL leagues.

J.A. Happ | PHI | SP
YTD: 6.8 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 2.60 ERA
True Talent: 7.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.89 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.2 IP, 0.4 wins, 6 K, 3.46 ERA
In his first start, the Phillies’ young lefty threw seven innings of 2-ER ball against the Yankees. Lacking true strikeout stuff, Happ relies on location, which worked well for him in the minors (9.3 K/9). Big leaguers are obviously able to hit his stuff better, but thus far, he has kept his walks under control (2.9 BB/9). At 28, he has the maturity to overcome the hiccups that will come his way. Wait and see in 14-team and shallower leagues, but teams in NL leagues of any size can do much worse at the back end of the fantasy rotation.

Ryan Madson | PHI | RP
YTD: 9.7 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 2.82 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.74 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 Saves, 3.69 ERA
Brad Lidge has scuffled at times, and Charlie Manuel continues to stick with him. But when Lidge was unavailable, Manuel looked to Madson, as he’ll do all year long. And if Lidge falls apart, Mad Dog will slide right into that closer spot. True Talent says that his current eye-popping ratios will sink, but Madson will keep your K high and pick up the odd save or two. Essential for Lidge owners as insurance, along with leagues that count holds. Other teams can use Madson for the K boost if you have the room.

Fernando Martinez | NYM | OF
YTD: .000/.125/.000
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The Mets’ top prospect is only 20, but since turning pro he has been among the youngest players at every level. His problems have been injuries (three in the past three seasons) and plate discipline (0.36 BB/K). Still, he's getting his chance in New York, and he could benefit from the tutelage of Gary Sheffield (of all people). This season, look for modest power and above-average speed to go with a shaky BA. He’ll deliver some steals in any league, but keeper teams and NL leagues must add him. Worth a spot in 12-team and deeper leagues of any kind just to see what happens.

Andy LaRoche | PIT | 3B
YTD: .297/.370/.414
True Talent: .261/.348/.401
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .263 BA, 0.3 SB
Maybe there’s something in the LaRoche family creed requiring you to wait a month to start hitting. Like perennially slow-starting older brother Adam, Andy stunk in April (.254/.310/.365) before hitting .329/.415/.451 since. Pittsburgh's not the best place to rack up RBI, and neither is the No. 6 spot in the order, but Andy showed a consistent batting eye in the minors (0.83 BB/K), and he should produce a strong BA but weak pop for a 3B. He’s worth a roster spot in all 12-plus team NL leagues and 16-plus team MLB leagues.

Chris Snyder | ARI | C
YTD: .231/.377/.440
True Talent: .250/.354/.442
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .248 BA, 0.0 SB
When A.J. Hinch announced that Snyder and Montero would compete for PT behind the dish, Snyder responded by hitting .270/.417/.649, starting 10 of those 17 games. Snyder will continue to gain ground on Montero, particularly since Chris is backing up his power with a career-best batting eye of .84 BB/K. If he can hold his plate discipline gains, he’ll beat that True Talent OPS, which already ranks him No. 3 in the NL and No. 8 overall at catcher. Grab this guy in 8-plus team NL leagues and all 10-plus team leagues.

Ian Stewart | COL | 3B
YTD: .187/.290/.421
True Talent: .250/.331/.459
Next Week Forecast: 1.1 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .254 BA, 0.3 SB
Stewart has been hitting a lot of waiver wires because of that ugly line. However, Garret Atkins isn’t hitting any better, so Stewart is still getting PT. Moreover, Stewart’s 2009 BABIP has been a horribly unlucky .197, well below his career .315 average. Stewart qualifies at 2B in most leagues, increasing his value more. A turnaround is not so certain that you should trade for him, but it’s likely. 16-plus team NL-only leagues should consider picking up Stewart for now, but everyone should watch him carefully for a bounceback.

Posted by THT Staff at 2:00am (1) Comments

Roster Doctor - 5/29/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

I chose a deep league for today so this roster will not look like an All-Star ballot...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 16
Categories: Traditional 5x5 (except instead of stolen base totals, it is net stolen bases [NSB])
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Roster:

C - John Baker
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Mark Teahen
SS - Stephen Drew
LF - Jayson Werth
CF - Carlos Beltran
RF - Matt Kemp
Util - Nelson Cruz
BN - Juan Pierre
BN - Adrian Beltre
BN - Matt LaPorta
BN - Mat Gamel
DL - Ryan Doumit

SP - Chad Billingsley
SP - Javier Vazquez
RP - Brian Fuentes
RP - Brad Ziegler
P - Yovani Gallardo
P - LaTroy Hawkins
P - Carl Pavano
BN - Andrew Bailey
DL - Kelvim Escobar

For a 16-team league, I think your hitting is overall, quite good. Your outfield is stacked like Scarlett, as is the right side of your infield. The left side of your infield however, manned by Drew and Teahen, needs to be reworked.

Actually, Teahen is a decent option at third, and he is the type of player that provides more value than he commands in a trade so I suggest keeping him as a role player. Drew, on the other hand, is the hitter on your team I would look to upgrade right away. He has been playing too terribly to be worthy of netting you anything valuable in a trade so the players you give up should either be outfielders or starting pitchers.

Luckily, Drew is not the only shortstop struggling right now and other shortstops that are struggling—such as Jimmy Rollins and J.J. Hardy—can be acquired relatively cheaply and are more likely to break out of their slumps. Both are discussed briefly in this article.

In a perfect world, you would be able to trade the players you feel are valuable yet somewhat expendable in return for players you deem more helpful to your team's cause. However, sometimes it is important to trade the players that, even though are playing great for your team, have a higher perceived value than what they most likely will produce in the future. Adrian Gonzalez is a perfect example of this type of player.

Adrian is a great player, but right now he is perceived by some as a super-elite player and can haul quite the load of player(s) in a trade. His current 37.7 percent HR/FB rate is unsustainable and for the rest of the season, most likely, he will play like the .280/35/100 hitter he is; not the .280/63/120 player he currently is on pace for. Winning owners will recognize this and receive players in trades that will produce better numbers for the rest of the season than the players they are trading away. If you can acquire a "super-elite" player for Gonzalez, I would accept.

I feel Nelson Cruz' production is pretty legitimate by the way. None of his indicator stats jump out at me so he is someone worth keeping if no one is biting on trade offers with him.

In your submission you note that you would like to bolster your pitching, and in my opinion, that is unnecessary. Billingsley is one of the best pitchers in the game right now—although I would like to see his BB/9 rate decrease, not increase as he supposedly matures. Right now he has given up 30 walks in 67 innings, good for a 4.03 walk rate per nine innings.

Still, he is one of the best pitchers in the game and when combined with Vazquez and Gallardo, the three make a formidable three-headed strikeout machine. A relief corps of Fuentes, Ziegler, and Bailey to back him up is solid—there is no reason to try and improve them by any means other than through free agency.

The rookies you have taken a stab on—LaPorta and Gamel—have yet to pay off but I would hold onto at least Gamel for now. My feeling is he could get hot at any moment, and can make a nice platoon player when facing righties. The implication is that LaPorta is expendable, and if a player in free agency catches your fancy, he would be the one to drop.

So what you should be doing immediately after reading this is to start attempting to acquire a new shortstop. I gave you my suggestions of who to target, but almost anyone will suffice over Drew. After that major upgrade, I would feel comfortable carrying this team throughout the rest of the season and into the playoffs. Yes, I do think you will make them.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:10am

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Minor League Mailbag

Q: Hanson doesn’t seem to be more than a No. 3 pitcher in the majors—seems ranked high here. Guys like Fowler, Alonso, Lawrie, Alvarez and Carlos Santana seem very low. They are producing now and are quick movers. Tim Beckham as well. Triunfel has to be moved down again at this point.

Missing altogether: Jaff Decker OF SD and Peter Bourjos OF LAA. Ryan Strieby 1B Det has to be on the watch list.

-- Posted by JFC in the comments section on 05/01 at 11:06 AM.

A: JFC has a lot on his mind, and he touched on a lot of hot topics. I’m going to take things one at a time.

First of all, there is no evidence to back up your pessimistic view of Tommy Hanson. He possesses ace stuff with his good fastball, solid change up, and dominating curveball. The only thing that could hold him back initially would be his control, and he has the work ethic and tenacity to work through those issues. He’s the best starting pitching prospect in baseball.

Yonder Alonso and Pedro Alvarez have not dominated like they should, revealing some chinks in their armor, although Alonso is certainly starting to turn it on. Dexter Fowler had a hot first couple of weeks, but I have legitimate concerns about his ability to hit for average and, especially, power—the speed is there, though. I have moved Brett Lawrie up since this post, but I won’t go overboard. He’s showing off against Single-A pitching. As for Carlos Santana, I was concerned about his poor first couple of weeks, and thus he gave me that one-year-wonder feeling. I was wrong. His bat has exploded since then, and he has moved up my list accordingly.

This is a good opportunity to address my Tim Beckham outlook overall. As a real-world prospect, Beckham would register in my Top 25, because of the position that he plays and the skill set that he provides. But from a pure fantasy perspective, his outlook is not as bright. The way I see it, if everything turns out right, a year or two from now he will be in the Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar class of shortstops. Meaning he would have great value for Tampa Bay in the real world, but he does not project to be an elite fantasy shortstop, only an above-average one—and, once again, that’s only if everything goes according to plan in the next year or two. I like him, but the fact that he was the top overall pick in last year’s draft has inflated his fantasy stock.

Carlos Triunfel is slowing descending my board, but I still love the kid. The injury could be a long-term concern.

Jaff Decker is a guy that I went out of my way to draft last year. But his poor start to the year had me concerned. As the temperature has heated up, so has Decker’s bat. He is back on my radar. He reminds me of Caleb Gindl but with better plate discipline. Unfortunately, he still has a lot to prove in the consistency department in order to catch up to Gindl.

Peter Bourjos was a bit of an oversight. I put together my initial watch list too hastily. I like him.

Ryan Strieby’s Double-A performance is mirroring his Advanced-A performance from a year ago, but something about him doesn’t stick out for me. I’m not sure his bat will translate to the big leagues. He will be one of the next guys to join my watch list, though.

Q: Josh Reddick? Did you overlook this guy? He is closing on Lars as the Sox best position prospect.

-- Dan, Columbia, Maryland

A: Admittedly, I have never been a fan of Reddick’s. He screams fourth outfielder to me, and his poor Double-A performance last year added fuel to the fire. But this year he bounced back and had a strong April for Double-A Portland. I had no choice but to add him to the watch list while he heals up from his oblique injury. Thanks for reminding me about Reddick.

Q: Great article on THT about prospects. I just picked up LaPorta in a trade (12-team mixed keeper) and already have Wieters in one of two minor league slots. Question: Who do you think will have the better career and 2009 impact of these BoSox pitching prospects: Buchholz, Bowden, or Masterson? I've seen Buchholz pitch a few times, but Bowden seems like the sleeper to me if he can find a spot in the rotation this season. Any recommendations? Thanks.

-- Trey, Florida

A: Thanks for the compliment. If you have a choice, Buchholz should be your horse. He still has great stuff, is coming into his prime, and has dominated Triple-A this year. If he was still eligible for my Top 100 list he would fit in the top 20 somewhere, despite his age. He still has it. Go out and get him.

Q: How do you like Gerardo Parra for this year and the future? Thanks in advance.

-- Brett

A: He’s off to a solid start in the big leagues, despite being rushed. I’m not counting on him for much this year, though. Unless you’re in a really deep league. He is moving solidly up my Top 100 list, and rightfully so. Long-term, he should hit for a high average with some stolen bases thrown in for good measure, but I’m not a believer in his power. He will probably top out at 15 home runs.

Q: Where is Greg Halman? Potential 30/30 guy.

-- Posted by Jake in the comments section on 05/01 at 07:54 PM.

A: By now I think most of you know my feelings on Greg Halman. He is not a 30/30 guy, unless you mean 30 walks and 30 doubles; and even then I’m not sure he makes the cut. After seeing the amount of mail that I have received regarding Halman I am now thoroughly convinced that he is the most overrated prospect in baseball.

Q: Cecil needs to move up!!! Where’s Strasburg?!?!?

-- Posted by Evan in the comments section on 05/12 at 12:29 AM

A: Brett Cecil has moved up, but his latest outing is cause for concern. He is not a savior for your fantasy team, but he should be a strong No. 3 pitcher long-term.

A little early to be jumping on Strasburg’s back, isn’t it? He will be joining the list with the rest of this year’s draft class, which will be in the offseason. That is unless he becomes ineligible.

Q: Hey, no Luke Hochevar? Also, since you seem to really get into the future stars and such, any interest in putting together lists for the Top 25 Fantasy Players five and 10 years down the line?

-- Posted by NoPepperGames in the comments section on 05/08 at 04:29 PM.

A: Hochevar is not a rookie, and thus ineligible.

That’s an interesting idea for an article. I’ll take it into consideration.

To be featured in a future Minor League Mailbag, send and all minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:25am (7) Comments

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Roster doctor

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

League Rules: 12-team keeper league (5 keepers), rosters set weekly, head-to-head, 6x6 (HR, RBI, BA, OPS, SB, R and W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB), mixed league

Roster:
C - Brian McCann
1B - Russell Branyan
2B - Brian Roberts
3B - Mark Reynolds
SS - Elvis Andrus
OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - Josh Hamilton
OF - Curtis Granderson
UT - J.D. Drew
UT - Adam Lind
Bench - Andruw Jones
Bench - Adam LaRoche
Bench - Jordan Schafer
Bench - Gordon Beckham
DL - Edwin Encarnacion
DL - Alex Gordon

SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Chad Billingsley
RP - Scott Downs
RP - C.J. Wilson
P - Ryan Perry
P - Yovani Gallardo
P - Sean Marshall (for this week, two starts)
Bench - Clayton Kershaw
Bench - Ross Detwiler
Bench - Tommy Hanson
Bench - Ubaldo Jimenez
DL - Scott Kazmir
DL - Joakim Soria

Notes: Right now, I'm using the best FA pitcher available with two starts for the week (hence Detweiler and then Marshall) or Kershaw. My biggest concern is whether I should try to trade Greinke for a SP and OF/CI upgrade.

Andrew, you have a nice trio of starting pitchers in Greinke, Billingsley and Gallardo. Given that you have an extra rate stat as a scoring stat (K/BB), I would be judicious about playing the revolving two-starter strategy. Typically the tradeoff faced with the double starter strategy is extra shots at wins and strikeouts, but a higher ERA and WHIP. In this case, you'd also risk a higher K/BB ratio - though both Marshall and Detwiler have pretty good ratios.

I'm glad you're preparing for a rainy day with respect to Branyan and Reynolds. Reynolds is having a good year but his home run to fly ball rate, at 26.7 percent, is going to drop. Branyan's numbers, particularly his batting average, are not going to last. Fortunately, you have a decent backup in LaRoche, whose skills are better than his current luck. Nevertheless, it is tough to be top of the league offensively when you have no likely first-rank players at your corner infield or utility spots.

There's two places that potential upgrades could come from: your bench (through free agency) or a trade. I think you've used the bench spots that you've allocated to pitching well. I'm not sure that that's the case with your batting bench spots. Beckham may be interesting long-term but isn't likely to help you this year. Schafer and Jones are mirror opposites. The former's been getting lots of playing time with little to show for it, while the latter has done remarkably well with limited at-bats. Neither of these guys is going to help you at the corner infield spots. I would look for players with potential upside there instead: Mat Gamel, Gary Sheffield (depending on eligibility requirements) or Nick Johnson (if you're lucky) or Jake Fox and Chris Coghlan (if you're forced to go deeper).

Lastly, I have no problem with you sending out feelers for a trade. I'm not going to take the easy route and tell you to "sell high" on Greinke, since I'm not going to insult your league mates by calling them fools. However, fair value for Greinke is still pretty darn high and you may get what you're looking for in a trade. However, with only seven active pitching spots, there may not be as much demand for starting pitching as you're expecting (i.e. the replacement level starting pitcher is probably pretty good in this league). So, don't force a trade if you don't get enough.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:36am (2) Comments

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Wieters to debut Friday

The Orioles announced today that top prospect Matt Wieters will be making his major league debut on Friday. If he wasn't drafted in your league or his impatient owner dropped him, pick him up now. He needs to be owned in all leagues and could be a top five catcher the rest of the way.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:03pm (0) Comments

Reyes hits the DL

After sitting out for the past week due to tendinitis in his right knee, Jose Reyes was finally placed on the Disabled List by the Mets today. The move is probably a relief to many who own him since now they can finally place Reyes on their own DL. Most likely, Reyes will return to the lineup on June 4 when he is eligible.

The ailing Mets also put Ryan Church on the DL with a minor hamstring injury, mainly because Carlos Beltran is dealing with injury issues of his own and will not be available for the next few games at least after an MRI today revealed inflammation.

Top prospect Fernando Martinez was called up to fill in for the injured outfielders and will get the start in right field tonight. The 20 year old Martinez is having a solid season at Triple-A, batting .291/.337/.552. In mixed leagues I would not use my priority on him, but in deep NL Only leagues he is worth a flier.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:19pm (0) Comments

Kazmir on DL

Scott Kazmir's on the DL with a strained quad, joining Oliver Perez and Chien-Ming Wang, among others, on the mercy train. There are fantasy implications for this general trend towards DLing pitchers instead of sending them down to the minors, a la Brett Myers - namely that you (or one of your opponents) can DL Kazmir and not waste a bench spot on him. A bit of a shame, since it takes away some of the strategy of fantasy.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 11:33am (0) Comments

A tale of two pitchers

We are 1/4th of the way through the season, and I thought I would take a look at two pitchers a number of people are unsure about, namely Ted Lilly and Brett Myers.

Ted Lilly

As he has been the past several years, Ted Lilly is once again proving himself a valuable starting pitcher. With good health (200+ innings past two years), solid strikeout abilities (around a 7.75 K/9), and support from the high-octane Cubs offense (leading to 15 or more wins each of the last three seasons), Lilly has established himself as a solid, yet unspectacular starter. He's not your number one guy, but he works well as a number two or number three guy in any rotation, providing depth.

+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+
| Year | Team      | IP    | W  | ERA  | WHIP |	K   | LIPS ERA |
+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+
| 2006 | Blue Jays | 181.2 | 15	| 4.31 | 1.43 | 160 |     4.24 |
| 2007 | Cubs	   | 207   | 15	| 3.83 | 1.14 | 174 |     3.88 |
| 2008 | Cubs	   | 204.2 | 17	| 4.09 | 1.23 |	184 |     3.73 |
| 2009 | Cubs	   | 57.1  |  5	| 3.77 | 1.10 |  47 |     3.75 |
+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+

Right now Lilly's ERA sits at a pretty 3.77, which I find surprising considering the ten home runs he has allowed already. Let me repeat that: 10 home runs! That means he is on pace for about 40 home runs allowed, which although is not single season record breaking, is top five in the league. Interestingly enough, the name of the record holder for most home runs allowed in the NL in a single season is a name every fantasy baseballer should be familiar with: Jose Lima.

+------+-----------+------+------+--------+--------+-------+------+
| Year | Team      | K/9  | BB/9 | OF FB% | HR/FB% | BABIP | LOB% |
+------+-----------+------+------+--------+--------+-------+------+
| 2006 | Blue Jays | 7.93 | 4.01 |   33.7 |   14.1 | 0.300 | 73.8 |
| 2007 | Cubs	   | 7.57 | 2.39 |   43.3 |   10.9 | 0.272 | 74.1 |
| 2008 | Cubs	   | 8.09 | 2.81 |   38.6 |   13.9 | 0.283 | 76.0 |
| 2009 | Cubs	   | 7.38 | 2.20 |   46.9 |   13.3 | 0.254 | 77.6 |
+------+-----------+-------+-----+--------+--------+-------+------+

Contrary to what you might be thinking, Lilly has not been giving up more home runs per fly ball; his HR/FB percentage sits at about 13 percent, which is in line with his career average. Instead he has been allowing flyballs at a ridiculous 47 percent rate, well above last year's 39 percent. Whenever a notorious fly ball pitcher sees a substantial increase in their fly balls allowed, concern should arise.

Loose pants are a necessity with those mechanics. (Icon/SMI)

Unfortunately, I have no way of telling if the increased fly ball rate will be sustained or if it is a fluke. Most likely Lilly's fly ball rate will regress towards his career average, which will lead to fewer home runs allowed. This will have a positive impact on his ERA.

Working out the math, it comes to about one-and-a-half less home runs allowed. I believe the home run is worth on average about 1.4 runs, so saving the theoretical 1.5 home runs will save Lilly 2.1 earned runs, which is close enough to two. The two saved runs equate to 30 points coming off his ERA.

On the negative side, there is only one major sign that points towards Lilly's ERA rising. Right now he is the lucky owner of a .254 BABIP, one that is surely to regress upwards into the .280's. He would have allowed six more hits if his BABIP were at .285, and on average his ERA would then rise half a point to 4.30.

Lilly is striking out slightly less batters than usual, but he also is walking less as well. Perhaps this is the sign of a maturing pitcher, or maybe it is simply random variation a quarter of the way through the season. Whatever the case, assuming these indicative stats regress to the mean the net result of these forces is a slightly increased ERA—by 20 points— to around the 4.00 mark.

Lilly is still a safe pitcher to own, and probably one of the safest in the major leagues considering his relative low cost.

Brett Myers

+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+
| Year | Team      | IP    | W  | ERA  | WHIP |	K   | LIPS ERA |
+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+
| 2006 | Phillies  | 198.0 | 12	| 3.91 | 1.30 | 189 |     3.71 |
| 2007 | Phillies  | 68.2  | 5	| 4.33 | 1.28 |  83 |     3.25 |
| 2008 | Phillies  | 190.0 | 10	| 4.55 | 1.38 |	163 |     3.88 |
| 2009 | Phillies  | 58.0  |  4	| 4.34 | 1.34 |  43 |     3.97 |
+------+-----------+-------+----+------+------+-----+----------+

Note: The Phillies experimented with Myers as their closer in 2007. He was 21 for 24 in save opps.

The headache that is Brett Myers has been relatively not so painful to own, after all, he has yet to be sent down to the minors. After a rocky start to the season, Myers pitched well in May, posting a 3.76 ERA for the month.

+------+----------+-------+------+--------+--------+-------+------+
| Year | Team     | K/9   | BB/9 | OF FB% | HR/FB% | BABIP | LOB% |
+------+----------+-------+------+--------+--------+-------+------+
| 2006 | Phillies | 8.59  | 2.86 |   32.7 |   15.8 | 0.309 | 76.1 |
| 2007 | Phillies | 10.88 | 3.54 |   32.2 |   15.8 | 0.320 | 73.3 |
| 2008 | Phillies | 7.72  | 3.08 |   28.8 |   17.6 | 0.311 | 72.6 |
| 2009 | Phillies | 6.67  | 2.95 |   26.5 |   31.3 | 0.267 | 88.5 |
+------+----------+-------+------+--------+--------+-------+------+

Similar to Lilly, most of Myers' trouble has come from the long ball. If you thought Lilly's ten home runs allowed was absurd, Myers has already let up fifteen! Seventy one percent of the earned runs he has allowed (20 of his 28 earned runs) are due to home runs. Although I did not do the calculation for all pitchers, I am confident that is league-leading.

Unlike Lilly, Myers' home runs are not the result of an inflated fly ball rate (Myers is a ground ball pitcher with a close to 50 percent GB rate) but instead a 31 percent HR/FB ratio. Myers does typically struggle in preventing home runs; his career rate of 16 percent is above league average 11 percent. His current 31 percent rate, however, is unsustainable and likely to fall.

An interesting overhead view of Myers throwing a two-seam fastball taken from THT's own private helicopter. (Icon/SMI)

If it fell to a more reasonable (yet still high) 18 percent, Myers would have given up 7.5 less home runs, which, using our 1.4 runs per home run conversion, would save him about 10 runs. A whole 1.54 points would be shed off of his ERA!

Eerily similar to Lilly, while Myers' ERA will benefit from decreased home run totals, it figures to rise when his .267 BABIP and 88 percent LOB% regress. With an expected BABIP of .300 Myers would have allowed seven more hits, raising his ERA about 46 points. And with the LOB percentage dropping down to its normal level his ERA would rise even more.

What is interesting about Myers is that he blamed his early-season struggles on a couple of ticks off his fastball velocity, a drop from 91 to 89 MPH. On May 17th, the Philadephia Inquirer reported Myers made mechanical adjustments to increase his velocity.

According to Brooks Baseball's Pitch f/x archive, Myers did throw his fastball slightly faster in his last start against the Yankees. His fastball velocity averaged at 89.7 MPH and topped out at 92.4 MPH.

I am not sure if the extra mile per hour is the reason Myers was able to pitch so well his past two starts, but keep an eye on his velocity and be wary of any drops.

Actually, the pitch that has been killing him is his change-up, which is 10 runs worse than the average change-up. My guess is that is the pitch most of these fifteen home runs were hit off of, and he better do something different with it whether it be locating it differently, or slowing or speeding up the pitch.

Overall, I would classify Myers as a risky pitcher that is prone to extreme swings in performance as we know from last year (5.84 pre-All Star break ERA, 3.06 post). Tentatively, I will say Myers is a pitcher you should be looking to buy right now, and he will make a good trade target if his owner is fed up with him getting worked every few starts. I make this suggestion more to cellar-dwelling teams that should start making more risky plays to give them a chance to rapidly climb in the standings.

It is better to go down swinging.

Posted by Paul Singman at 7:02am

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Bailing

With Memorial Day here, bail season has officially opened. No matter how true the assertion that 75 percent of the season remains, everyone treats this time of the season as the one to stop making fair offers to teams in the bottom third of the standings. Whether those four teams think so or not, forces are aligned to make their bailing a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Because the top teams know bailing is near, the teams at the bottom cannot make trades to deal from their strengths to address their weaknesses because those top teams sense the fire sale on the horizon and don’t want to be stuck making an even swap when just a little more patience will yield two or three times as much in a bail trade.

A week passes, and the worst teams find themselves frustrated at their inability to complete a trade. On top of this frustration, there was the previous two months of angst and doubt about their floundering squad. So where does that leave a bottom team? Entertaining the idea of bailing despite the fact that two thirds of the season remains.

Once the first bail trade is executed, the chances for the other teams to compete just became harder as they are less likely to overcome a team who just juiced himself on a three-for-one deal: an out-of-time Ryan Howard, Michael Bourn and Brad Lidge for a super cheap Colby Rasmus, Garret Mock and Travis Ishikawa. As a result, those teams begin prodding the other bottom feeders for their own three-for-one bail trade.

That first bail trade is key. Once consummated, the teams competing against the lucky bail recipient now want their own bail trades. How can the other bottom teams improve after one of their own just broke their cartel and cut the best deal it could? They can’t. So another team bails. Two of the top teams are now juicing. And so on.

Within a couple of weeks of Memorial Day, the hopes of teams waiting for their players to regress to their mean in a positive fashion while seeing those above them in the standings regress the other way have been dashed with just a third of the season completed. The juiced teams have locked in those gains and have set themselves up to continue the status quo.

What can the few teams that are competing do against the juiced ones? Hope their league rules are set-up to allow teams that finish just out of the money to get first dibs on minor leaguers recalled during the season or selected in the 2010 drafts.

What if your league does a worst-to-first free agent pick-up and the Washington Nationals bring Steven Strasburg to the majors this season? Well, the teams the bailed first and won the race to the bottom squeeze those unjuiced middle teams. They are not in position to grab Strasburg this year but can’t compete against the bail recipients this season on free agent priority.

The view is glum for those fantasy teams who find themselves in the bottom tier of their leagues, but a final four months of mediocrity looms thanks to all that bail season wrought. Except for me. My place in the cellar is only temporary.

Last Week: I wrote about keeping an eye on some players who have been worthless so far, but stand to gain their pre-season expected value with a “fortuitous” turn of events. None of the players are yet to get that “Pierre Opportunity.” If I were bailing, I’d try to get those players are the roster filler portions of the deal.

Posted by Eric Hinz at 3:26am

Sunday, May 24, 2009

Brad Lidge to remain Philly closer

Well, apparently it needs to be said. Brad Lidge will remain the closer for the Philadelphia Phillies. When it gets to this point for most closers — where they receive the dreaded 'vote of confidence' that manager Charlie Manuel bestowed upon Lidge tonight — we'll often see a change if the pitcher can't turn things around over his next couple appearances. It'll likely be a different story for a guy with the track record of Lidge, and this is actually his second vote of confidence this month. Maybe Manuel really is just trying to get people off his back.

Still, between 1) the fact that Lidge's strikeouts are down, he's walking a ton of batters, and he's not inducing many ground balls, 2) his volatile injury situation, 3) the fact that Ryan Madson is pitching well, and 4) he's now received two votes of confidence, there is certainly cause for concern.

Madson should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues by any owners prospecting for saves. Lidge will have ample opportunity to turn things around, but if he can't, you can be sure the Phillies won't want to head into the summer months or down the stretch run with a guy who isn't slamming the door shut in the 9th. And remember, this is a relatively impulsive club — the same that sent Brett Myers to the minors last year.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:27pm (0) Comments

Friday, May 22, 2009

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Rich Hill | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 9.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 3.18 ERA
True Talent: 8.3 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.34 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 6 K, 4.26 ERA
The bar is set pretty low in Baltimore to get a try-out. Take Rich Hill, who walked nine batters in 16 minor-league innings this season ... after walking 44 men in 47.2 IP last year. That Hill was able, in his first start, to limit his unintentional walks to one was unexpected. He still has the amazing curveball, which leads to the glowing “True Talent” prediction, but—especially in that division—expect few Ws, and lots of BBs.

Matt Palmer | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 5.1 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.26 ERA
True Talent: 6.1 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 5.11 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 4.68 ERA
“The past does not equal the future.” Sounds like something a motivational speaker like Jim Palmer might say. And Matt Palmer seems to be listening to the (unrelated) Hall of Famer, seeing as how Matt has a 5-0 record despite being 30 years old with an undistinguished minor-league resume. We're happy for Matt Palmer, but expect his poor K/BB to take its toll, and for him to get pushed out of the rotation over the next few weeks.

Ramon Santiago | Detroit | SS/2B
YTD: .345/.377/.603
True Talent: .258/.321/.378
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 0.2 SB, .262 BA
The last time Ramon Santiago played full time was 2007, as a 27-year-old at Triple-A Toledo, where he hit .263/.309/.362. Thus, we were skeptical when he posted a gaudy .282/.411/.460 line in 2008 as a reserve. Although we're even more skeptical about his .436 BABIP-aided line this year, Santiago does have a fine defensive reputation, and his recent hitting has upgraded him to “safe filler.” And Adam Everett misses a lot of time with injuries.

Kelly Shoppach | Cleveland | CA
YTD: .227/.370/.394
True Talent: .247/.331/.452
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, 0.0 SB, .238 BA
Kelly Shoppach was overdrafted in many settings after his fluky-good 2008 season. The truth, though, is that he IS a valuable player, probably superior to a dozen starters at his position. His defense won't help a fantasy team, but if he keeps out-hitting Garko and some of the various OF/1B options like LaPorta, then Shoppach should keep logging at least half-time play. His career-long tendency is to maul LHP, and he's a must-play against them in daily-move formats.

Clete Thomas | Detroit | OF
YTD: .306/.382/.408
True Talent: .244/.313/.363
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 0.9 SB, .247 BA
What in the name of Barry Bonds is Jim Leyland thinking? Most baseball fans outside Michigan would have about as much chance of knowing that Clete Thomas is the Tigers' No. 3 hitter as they would of winning the lottery! Leyland batted Neifi Perez No. 2 during their World Series run, so he has been known to do strange things. Expect this experiment to go only slightly better than did Piniella batting Alex Sanchez No. 3 in 2005.

Dontrelle Willis | Detroit | SP
YTD: 4.1 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 3.27 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.38 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 5.67 ERA
The shame is that the "True Talent" line may be pretty close on Willis's ERA, though many people want the popular Willis to rebound (including the Tigers, and their accountant). Willis might have reined in his control somewhat but at a cost to his Ks, so expect more hits. He's a great example of just how fickle pitchers can be. (He was taken 17th overall in a Baseball America “Dream Draft” in 2006.)

C.J. Wilson | Texas | RP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 3.86 ERA, 2 Saves
True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.20 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 saves, 4.24 ERA
What's not to like? Well, Wilson is a lefty closer (already a disadvantage). In 62 IP since 2007, he has allowed 5+ BB/9, more hits than innings, and nine home runs. And he pitches in one of the best hitter's parks in baseball, for a team that won't furnish as many close games as do other teams. That True Talent prediction looks almost tolerable, but even if Francisco's return wasn't imminent, C.J. Wilson would still be among the worst 2-3 closers in MLB.

Ben Zobrist | Tampa Bay | SS/OF
YTD: .276/.376/.621
True Talent: .256/.338/.433
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, 0.2 SB, .259 BA
Like Matt Palmer, Ben Zobrist has been old for his leagues. Unlike Palmer, though, Zobrist did some fantastic work in the minors, including a .428 composite OBP. Zobrist has long been considered a man without a position: not good enough "D" to patrol up-the-middle, not enough bat to man the corners. However, a .505 slugging in 227 PA last year, and his hot start this year, are starting to dispel the latter notion.

National League by Michael Street

Dave Bush | MIL | SP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.74 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 4.23 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 Wins, 4 K, 4.15 ERA
With a career 1.3 HR/9, Bush must keep his walks down to succeed, and he has done so during the Crew’s recent surge. His 2009 1.9 BB/9 is right in line with his career 2.0 BB/9, and True Talent says that he is pitching only slightly above expectations. Bush won’t shut anyone out—he has given up 2+ runs in 7 of 8 starts—but he’ll give Wins and a few Ks without completely embarrassing you.

Mat Gamel | MIL | 3B
YTD: .333/.429/1.000
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Interleague play gives Gamel near-term DH value, but his long-term outlook is hazier. As the Brewers’ top hitting prospect, he'll get his swings for as long as he’s up, but his path is currently blocked. Recent Milwaukee moves (like the signing of Frank Catalanotto and acquisition of Jody Gerut) hint that a trade is in the works that would clear a spot for him, so grab him for the near term. Keeper-league owners should already have him on their rosters.

Kris Medlen | ATL | SP
YTD: 9.0 K/9, 0.6 K/BB, 15.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Atlanta wants to look at Medlen (5-0, 1.21 ERA at Triple-A, with 44 K and 10 BB in 27.1 IP) while they wait for Glavine to return. Medlen strikes out guys, but not consistently, and major-league hitters won’t flail at his slider the way that Triple-A hitters do. Medlen struggled in his first start, suddenly losing control after a strong first two innings; that tells you all that you need to know about this low-ceiling gamble.

Ross Ohlendorf | PIT | SP
YTD: 4.3 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.31 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.68 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 4 K, 4.38 ERA
Ohlendorf’s peripherals look decent, and his current performance suggests that he could be a buy-low opportunity. However, he has two problems: lefties (.978 OPS Against, vs. .671 OPS against RH), and away parks (6.02 ERA and 1.60 WHIP, vs. 3.78 ERA and 1.29 WHIP at PNC). If you can afford to roster Ohlendorf in order to start him at home against RH-heavy line-ups, you might reap some benefits ... but if your roster is that deep, you're probably not looking for waiver-wire help.

Nyjer Morgan | PIT | OF
YTD: .301/.381/.370
True Talent: .277/.337/.352
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, 1.4 SB, .274 BA
Morgan’s 10 SB are already a career high, but more are on the way. He sits on some waiver wires because of a strained hammy that had him out for a few games, but he looks fine, and the OBP that he has racked up demonstrates his improved batting eye (0.65 BB/K this year, vs. 0.31 in 2008), which should lead to even more SB. Just keep that True Talent projection in mind—he’s no .300 hitter.

Gerardo Parra | ARI | OF
YTD: .321/.387/.571
True Talent: .264/.315/.385
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 0.8 SB, .264 BA
Parra won’t hit like this all year, but his early trends were alluring. In his first 14 PA, he had zero Ks, with two triples and a HR. He has scuffled since, with 5 Ks in his last 17 PA to go along with four hits, all singles. In Arizona, Parra will get time to prove himself, and that SB projection makes him worth a look in many leagues, especially since we think that he'll beat his True Talent BA.

Cody Ross | FLA | OF
YTD: .248/.301/.447
True Talent: .254/.315/.460
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, 0.2 SB, .252 BA
After starting the season 2-for-23, Ross went 9 for his next 20, and then slid back to 14-for-78 before going 7-for-12 last week with two HR and three 2B. That’s typical Ross, whose overall numbers are still right in line with his projected ratios. If you can hang with his cold streaks and be sure to play him against LHP (career .950 OPS against LHP, vs. .728 OPS against RHP), Ross can deliver some low-BA pop.

Skip Schumaker | STL | 2B/OF
YTD: .299/.348/.425
True Talent: .295/.349/.402
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, 0.2 SB, .287 BA
St. Louis skipper Tony LaRussa has been sticking with Schumaker at second base, where Schumaker's stat line plays very well—you won't find many .750 OPS qualifying 2Bs on the wire. Note how well True Talent matches his current numbers. Schumaker is steady and unspectacular, but he will give a low-power BA boost while scoring runs as the Cards’ lead-off hitter. As long as he keeps starting for them, he should be starting for you.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by THT Staff at 1:20am (8) Comments

Roster Doctor - 5/22/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

The streak of traditional rosters continues...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Roster:

C - Pablo Sandoval
1B - Ryan Howard
2B - Chase Utley
SS - Jimmy Rollins
3B - Jorge Cantu
OF- Matt Kemp
OF - Alex Rios
OF - Jacoby Ellsbury
Util - Joey Votto
BN - Corey Hart
BN - Jhonny Peralta
BN - Alexei Ramirez

SP - Dan Haren
SP - Adam Wainwright
RP - Chad Qualls
RP - Ryan Franklin
P - Fernando Rodney
P - Scott Downs
P - Josh Johnson
BN - Jered Weaver
BN - Wandy Rodriguez
DL - John Lackey

First off, this person told me that she picked Ellsbury off the waiver wire—great addition! Let that serve as a lesson to all of you impatient people out there who are thinking about using your priority on a mediocre player now because you do not foresee any great names getting called up in the near future that are not already owned. Most of the time great waiver pickups come from drops by other teams, particularly after the first month of the season. Someone like Ellsbury might not be dropped in your league, but a valuable player like David Ortiz or BJ Upton might be.

A noticeable aspect of this team is its Phillies infield minus Pedro Feliz at third. Normally I would think that was intentional—i.e. the owner is a Phillies fan—but the owner noted in their submission (info like this is helpful) that they recently traded Jay Bruce and Jair Jurrjens for Rollins and Josh Johnson. This trade is a good example a smart owner making use of a surplus in one position (outfield) to bolster a lacking one (shortstop) where you previously had Peralta starting.

One of the bigger disappointments so far this year, Peralta, is struggling and I think it was a good idea to find a suitable replacement for him. And kudos to not buying high on the replacement; instead Rollins was a nice buy-low at this point since he figures to start raising his production level imminently (four for six last night). Johnson won't keep up the sub-three ERA ratio much longer but with his ability to strikeout batters out, limit free passes, and induce ground balls, he should post an ERA in the mid-3s the rest of the way, which is of course valuable. Nice trade.

With the shortstop hole plugged, the rest of your lineup is strong and filled with players myself and many other people would love to own like Kemp, Votto, Utley, and even Cantu. I am not saying Rios, Howard, and the others are bad players, but if at some point in the future you are looking to upgrade your hitters, those would be the guys I would like to upgrade. Howard is in that list for the flexibility he offers if included in a trade since you could get anyone in return for him, because Votto could slide from utility to first base. And his name does supersede his numbers somewhat.

Your pitching is excellent, both starters and relievers. There is no reason to mess with your corral of dominant starters and it is apparent you have been active on the waiver wire by the grouping of recently anointed closers you own. Not much else to say about your pitching except just make sure you strategically bench pitchers towards the end of the week if you've got enough victories locked up.

I know you would like to keep Alexei because he could break out of his slump and provide value either in a trade or starting for you, but if a player with some potential hits the wire soon, I would not let Alexei prevent me from adding him. His roster spot is one I would consider pretty expendable right now if the right player comes along. I say this especially in a league where Ellsbury was magically dropped. Good luck the rest of the season!

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:17am

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Prospect Thoughts, Notes, and Projections - 5/20

Here is the latest batch of thoughts, notes, and projections. To see where these players fit among the other top prospects in baseball, visit our ongoing Hardball Times Top 100 Fantasy Prospects.

------------------------------

Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #20 / Low: #25 / This Week: +3
2009 Thoughts:
I anticipate a full year of minor league ball, to good results. A September call-up could be in the cards.
Average Year Projection:
.289 / .362 / 17 HR / 37 2B / 5 3B / 77 RBI / 88 R / 64 BB / 106 SO / 8 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.301 / .377 / 22 HR / 40 2B / 7 3B / 84 RBI / 95 R / 70 BB / 99 SO / 11 SB / 3 CS
Notes:
5/11/09 - I really like his makeup. He doesn’t look like it, but Beckham is a pure ball player. He will be one of those pesky, tough outs, a la David Eckstein and Aaron Miles. But unlike those two, Beckham has some real pop in his bat, especially for a shortstop. Look for a typical season to net J.J. Hardy-esque stats, except Beckham should churn out a better batting average, better plate discipline, and more speed. In other words, a very good fantasy shortstop.

Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / Double-A / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011 / High: #21 / Low: #39 / This Week: +11
2009 Thoughts:
Anticipate a full season at Double-A Akron, and another series of stats similar to his 2008 season.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/18/09 - There are numerous catchers that post breakout numbers every year, before failing to replicate their performance the following season. I was a bit skeptical of Santana heading into the year, and thought that he might fit that category. His poor start to the year seemed to indicate so. But he has had a great May, especially from a plate discipline perspective. He has 23 walks compared to just 16 strikeouts, and plenty of pop in his bat to make him an exceptional prospect. I will not doubt Santana any longer. However, I do doubt his short-term major league playing time, as he is blocked behind the plate by Victor Martinez, and even blocked at DH by Travis Hafner. I have 2011 listed as his estimated time of arrival, and it pains me to do so. But, as it turns out, a lot of catchers don’t become big league regulars until they’re 24 or 25. I hope I’m wrong, but I’m really starting to question the way Cleveland is using their top prospects lately.

Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / Double-A / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / High: #22 / Low: #38 / This Week: +16
2009 Thoughts:
Look for a full, successful year at Double-A Connecticut.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/18/09 - I had him way too low on my list initially, and have set out this week to right that wrong. Alderson is yet another top prospect in what has become a great Giants’ farm system. I was surprised to see him start the year in San Jose. And after a sluggish start there, it looks like a promotion to Double-A Connecticut officially got his season underway. He doesn’t possess the pure velocity of Bumgarner, but he does have a better secondary pitch than his teammate. His curveball continues to develop, and the strikeouts against good competition look like they will follow suit. His fastball may only sit in the low-90s, but there are plenty of pitchers with similar fastballs that have developed into elite starters with the help of a great secondary pitch. With continued Double-A dominance, a rise into the Top 10, among the other ace caliber starters, is not out of the question.

Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / Advanced-A / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #20 / Low: #23 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
The young man should get a shot at Double-A sometime this summer, but Florida won’t rush him too fast, for various reasons.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/11/09 - Everyone’s excited about this kid’s potential, and rightfully so. But I pride myself on being a realist; maybe in Stanton’s case I’m being a pessimist. His strikeouts are a huge concern. He takes some walks, but I would like to see more. Maybe that will come with age. He has one of the most powerful bats in the minor leagues, but there are very obvious holes in that swing. Those holes will be exposed in Double-A. Frustration and prolonged struggles could follow. On the other hand, he’s a very hard worker with the ability to adjust. Bottom line, it’s hard to gauge Stanton at this point. Invest cautiously.

Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / Double-A / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / High: #22 / Low: #24 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
A small wrist fracture will keep Morrison out of the lineup until June, but it’s probably one of those injuries that will linger longer than that.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/11/09 - I have never been a believer in Morrison’s home run power, but his 2008 season can’t be ignored. At this point he looks like a slightly better version of Casey Kotchman, but he has only had six career Double-A at-bats, so I’m craving more data. I obviously love his ability to hit from gap to gap and for a high average, thus the Kotchman comparisons. My crystal ball tells me that Morrison’s wrist injury will result in a lost season and a fall from the top of many top prospect lists. I’ll try to keep things in perspective. He’s a good hitter, plain and simple.

Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / Triple-A / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #23 / Low: #25 / This Week: -1
2009 Thoughts:
Unless his arm gets under control in a hurry, Feliz may stay at Triple-A Oklahoma City for the rest of the year. We could see some bullpen appearances as well, which is a sight that Feliz owners will frown at.
Average Year Projection:
184 IP / 3.68 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 191 SO / 173 H / 68 BB
Prime Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.27 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 222 SO / 183 H / 59 BB
Notes:
5/17/09 - His endurance and control are starting to come around. Texas would love to use him as a starter, even though I think he would be at his best coming out of the bullpen, eventually as their closer. Ultimately, we all have to face the fact that he will be pitching in Arlington, which will hinder his chances to produce elite numbers in the majors. I like him but am skeptical of his control, poise, and situation. He has the unbridled talent to prove me wrong, though.

Kyle Blanks / 1B/OF / San Diego / Triple-A / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #24 / Low: #26 / This Week: -1
2009 Thoughts:Blanks should spend the entire year in Portland, as there is no reason for rebuilding San Diego to use up his service time.
Average Year Projection:
.275 / .352 / 20 HR / 30 2B / 1 3B / 91 RBI / 80 R / 69 BB / 124 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.287 / .387 / 26 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 101 RBI / 88 R / 79 BB / 113 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS
Notes:
5/18/09 - Blanks is one of my personal favorite all-around bats in the minor leagues. His Triple-A strikeout rate is a bit concerning, but his sweet swing will play in the big leagues. The problem is that he will bring that sweet swing to Petco Park, one of the more extreme pitcher’s parks in baseball, and has the team’s best position player, Adrian Gonzalez, standing in his way at first base. He is starting to get a feel for left field, but former top prospect Chase Headley is currently blocking that position as well. It’s a convoluted situation, and San Diego has never been opposed to leaving top prospects in the minors until a spot opens up naturally. Stay tuned.

Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #26 / Low: #27 / This Week: -1
2009 Thoughts:Humble beginnings emanating from a prized prospect have ruined the reputations of countless players throughout the years. I don’t expect a breakout later this year after his slow start, but his reputation remains strong in my eyes.
Average Year Projection:
.272 / .354 / 17 HR / 39 2B / 5 3B / 81 RBI / 94 R / 77 BB / 114 SO / 11 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.285 / .376 / 23 HR / 42 2B / 7 3B / 86 RBI / 105 R / 89 BB / 103 SO / 16 SB / 4 CS
Notes:
5/19/09 - His .300/30 HR/30 SB potential has taken a hit over the last two years, but, to a degree, his bat is playing at the major league level, especially recently. He has hit two home runs and driven in five RBIs over the last four games, but he has a long way to go in order to make up for his poor start. His dynamic set of skills has yet to show itself, but time is certainly on his side. Over the long haul he may fly under the radar, but by the time he hits age 25 or 26, his five tool potential may be fully on display. A good long-term investment.

Carlos Triunfel / SS/3B / Seattle / Double-A / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011 / High: #18 / Low: #28 / This Week: -8
2009 Thoughts
Triunfel will be shelved for the rest of the season due to a broken fibula and a damaged ligament in his ankle. Ouch.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/5/09 - I caught some criticism for aggressively putting an “injured shortstop that won’t stay at shortstop” very high up on my list. But that’s how much I love this kid. I wanted to give him his due. I’m sure he will slide down this list as the year progresses, but I am very high on this kid’s ability to be an elite fantasy shortstop in the major leagues. That’s right, I do think he will stay at shortstop. He won’t be anything more than average defensively at the position, but that’s of little concern to us. All we care about is his bat and his speed, and he lots of both.

Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / Double-A / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #29 / Low: #30 / This Week: +1
2009 Thoughts
His immediate future is shrouded in mystery, as the Indian organization has shifted him to the bullpen in order to presumably get him ready for a roll in the big league pen. He won’t possess much big league value, though, if he does indeed spend some time with the big boys.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/19/09 - I loved what Rondon was showing as a Double-A starter. He was putting the whole package together and producing the stats to back it up. Someone in the Cleveland front office must have a screw loose, though, as they are playing more radical prospect games; this time with their best young pitcher. Rondon has been shifted to the bullpen as a way to get him to the majors faster, and he hasn’t adjusted well. I hope the shift doesn’t have a long-term negative effect on the young man, as he has all the tools to be an ace. In many circles he is supremely underrated right now. Strike now before the national media catches on.

Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / Advanced-A / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #28 / Low: #30 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
Alvarez is a young man who was supposed to be fast-tracked to the majors. Instead, a poor start has kept him in Advanced-A Lynchburg. Whatever Alvarez’s problems are, expect him to put them behind him as the year goes on, and anticipate a Double-A Altoona finish to a strong summer.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/20/09 - I love the walks he’s drawing and the home runs he’s parking, but every other part of his stat line makes me go “blah.” He should be dominating the Carolina League. So, what’s the problem? His swing simply doesn’t look as crisp or fast as it did during his pre-injury period last year at Vanderbilt. The injury he suffered was a broken hamate bone in his right hand, one of those notoriously tough injuries to come back from. If I was to guess, I would say it’s the injury that is slowing him down. I’m hoping a strong summer puts his promising career back on track.

Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / Single-A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011 / High: #31 / Low: #38 / This Week: --
2009 Thoughts:
I assume that the Brewers will play it safe with their young star and keep him in Single-A Wisconsin this season, much the same way that they handled Caleb Gindl in his first full year.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/20/09 - I love Lawrie’s swing, plain and simple. He has lightning quick wrists and thunder in his bat. He makes it look so easy. He reminds me so much of Mike Moustakas, and he could see a similar rise up my prospect board. The trick will be finding a permanent position for him to play, and even that won’t be very hard. His footwork looks a bit awkward at second base, but there is certainly time to clean it up. Personally, I think he fits best at third base, where his strong arm can be showcased. Either way, we’re looking at another potential superstar slugger coming up through Milwaukee’s farm system.

Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / Advanced-A / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011 / High: #32 / Low: #39 / This Week: +7
2009 Thoughts:
Baltimore is taking it slow with their prized pitcher, but Matusz will face Double-A competition before the year is up.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
5/20/09 - I can’t believe Matusz isn’t pitching for Double-A Bowie. His mechanics have been questioned in the past, so maybe Baltimore is trying their best to make sure he has success while he adjusts his delivery. I haven’t seen enough of him to know if that’s the case, though. I’ll make sure to catch up on everything Matusz when he is promoted; as Double-A is the best current test for a player of his caliber. His fastball is average, but his full repertoire is outstanding, including a potentially potent slider, curveball combination.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:36am (4) Comments

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Roster Doctor - 5/20/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 8 x 7 (standard categories plus TB, K, BB, L, CG)
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head (weekly)
Roster:

C: Joe Mauer
1B: Carlos Pena
2B: Rickie Weeks
SS: Marco Scutaro
3B: Kevin Youkilis
OF: Nate McLouth
OF: Carlos Quentin
OF: Nelson Cruz
UT: Elijah Dukes

SP: Josh Beckett
SP: Javier Vazquez
RP: Scott Downs
RP: Brian Fuentes
P: Adam Wainright
P: Max Scherzer
BN: Todd Helton
BN: Rafael Furcal
BN: Mat Gamel
BN: Melky Cabrera
BN: Rickie Nolasco
BN: David Price
DL: J Smoltz
DL: J Bonderman

Randy, the owner of this team, says he is in "dead last by a mile." He fingers the blame on a rash of injuries and feels a bit confused on what to do about this, having little experience with the injury bug after some successful, healthy seasons.

This year, Mauer was on the shelf for the first month. McLouth missed some games due to strained oblique, something that also haunts Kevin Youkilis. Meanwhile, Quentin is day-to-day with a heel problem, and Dukes has some issues with a strained hamstring Adding insult to injury, now Weeks is out for the season with a wrist injury.

In a weekly H2H scoring league, health may not win a league, but it can often lose one. It's imperative to have players who will be as close to lineup locks as possible when weekly rosters are set.

All that said, it's interesting to see this league has eight categories for batters compared to seven for pitchers. In addition, two of the three extra batting categories (total bases and walks) reward more games played while one (strikeouts) tends to penalize batter starts. The same can't be said on the pitching end, where one of the extra categories (losses) penalizes more starts and the other extra category (complete games) is rare enough that it'll make no difference in most scoring periods.

It seems as though there is a stronger incentive to making sure that a team's batters are healthy in this league. On the pitching end, you can have some good closers and a couple of aces and still manage to come away with wins in the ratio categories and saves. (Randy also says his league has a 20 inning per scoring period minimum.)

First thing, first: How to replace Rickie Weeks. We don't have access to the league's waiver wire to see who is available, but judging by the size of the league, and the fact there is no middle infield position, we expect there could be some decent replacement options, including Freddy Sanchez, Alberto Callaspo, Ian Stewart, Felipe Lopez, or Akinori Iwamura. The best hope of cloning Weeks may be Stewart. The safest bet for production and playing time is Sanchez.

Fortunately, none of the other injuries his team is experiencing are serious long-term concerns. However, in the future, we wouldn't hesitate to drop Smoltz or Bonderman if a batter needs to be put on DL and create space for a healthy body. In addition, with categorical incentives as they are, and with a limping squad, it may be wise to explore trading David Price, who currently takes up a roster spot that Randy can ill afford to waste, pardon the pun.

A player like Gamel has potential, and Melky Cabrera has been doing well this season, but both don't figure to get into the lineup every day. Same actually holds true for Rafael Furcal, who sits once a week as lingering health questions trail him and demand time off.

Randy needs to have healthy batters who will be in the lineup every day. Players like Mauer, Youkilis, and Quentin will protect his batting average, but in a chase towards runs and RBIs, he'll need to reach maximum games each scoring period.

He'll dig himself out of the standings basement eventually, and fortunately, in a Head-to-Head league, if you make the playoffs, past injuries mean nothing.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:44am (0) Comments

Daily fantasy baseball contest picks for Draftbug and Snapdraft for Wednesday, May 20th

Like last week, I'm doing an in-depth analysis of Wednesday's games for players in daily fantasy baseball contests. At each position, I’ll list the top five healthy players according to my ratings, along with their prices in Draftbug. Snapdraft’s scoring is VERY similar, so the same ratings should apply, although the pricing varies enough that you could end up with a very different lineup using the same ratings. Although the discussion will focus on Draftbug, the same thought process applies in Snapdraft, and I'll include a lineup for Snapdraft at the end of the article as well.

For each position, I’ll list my ratings for the top five players, as well as any others that I seriously considered putting in my lineup for the day. Depending on the size of the contest and the buy-in, the salary cap varies between contests at Draftbug (unlike Snapdraft, which always uses the same salary cap). One change from last week is that I'll use a salary cap of 1400 points (instead of 1500). Not only does that require more interesting tradeoffs and compromises, but it is the cap used for the daily freeroll contest, which is likely to be most people's first exposure to the contests. Keep in mind that the ratings listed are specifically for Wednesday’s games, based on factors such as park, opponents, platoon advantage, and home field advantage.

One reader last week finished second in several contests using my ratings, and concluded that "the system works more or less as advertised." While it's certainly gratifying to see someone do well using information I've provided, it's probably worth mentioning that it takes a while to really know how good you are at these contests. In the long run, they're very dependent on skill ... more than most fantasy baseball formats. However, in the short run, there's extremely high variance in the results.

Starting Pitchers:

1 Vazquez     15.4     199
2 Kazmir      14.9     249
3 E. Santana  14.8     249
4 Gaudin      14.2     N/A
5 Gallardo    13.9     209

This is an incredibly easy choice. I typically am willing to spend whatever it takes for the top starting pitcher, but in this case Vazquez is relatively cheap, and he's actually probably underrated by my system's incomplete ability to project innings pitched.

Relief pitchers:

1 Papelbon  3.9   210
2 Fuentes   3.9   156
3 Rodney    3.5   102
4 Gonzalez  3.5   96
5 Qualls    3.5   90

In general, in a large multiplayer contest (like the freeroll), I prefer taking a starting pitcher and and reliever from the same team. However, Vazquez tends to pitch a lot of complete games, so I'm going to use Qualls instead of Gonzalez.

Catchers

1 Martin    .80  174
2 McCann    .69  186
3 Mauer     .67  174
4 Laird     .61  72
5 Napoli    .60  120

For hitters, my ratings reflect their per-at-bat projection. That means that I'm penalizing players who tend to get more at-bats—those who bat early in the lineup, play on teams with high on-base percentages, and don't get removed late in games. As the season progresses, I'll build some kind of estimate of plate appearances into my statistical model, but for now it's something that I just need to keep in mind when I'm making my picks. The only two reasonable choices at catcher today are Martin or Laird. I'll be using Martin. With the restriction of the 1400 salary cap, he and Vazquez are the only two top-rated players that I'll be using.

First Base

1 Cabrera    .94  288
2 Pujols     .82  324
3 Teixeira   .78  176
4 Morneau    .72  240
5 Loney      .71  144

Cabrera has such a strong projection that I had hoped I'd be able to use him today. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find the room under my salary cap, so I'll be taking Loney to save salary. When I'm evaluating potential lineups, and I seem to be falling just barely short of being able to field a substantially better team, I often look for additional contests to enter that use a higher salary cap. Likewise, if I have a lot of room left under the salary cap (which doesn't happen as often), I look for contests with a lower cap.

Second Base

1 Pedroia   .90  234
2 Polanco   .73  102
3 Utley     .72  252
4 Hudson    .71  96
5 Cano      .70  174

Like Cabrera at first, I had hoped I'd be able to afford Pedroia. I couldn't, so I'm taking Polanco.

Third Base

1 Rodriguez  .86  300
2 Wright     .86  306
3 Jones      .83  210
4 Lowell     .76  126
5 Blake      .69  108

Lowell is a great bargain at third base today. Note that the gap between his projection and the top third basemen is much less than that between some of the other "bargain" players and the top players at their positions. It's becoming clear that my model "likes" the Yankees, Dodgers, Red Dox, and Tigers hitters today. But keep in mind that not all players on a team will be affected equally by a match-up. Factors such as platoon advantage, stolen base potential against pitchers who don't hold runners on well, ability to draw walks against pitchers with poor control, and more can result in some surprising rankings among players on the same team.

Shortstop

1 Ramirez     .83  324
2 Reyes       .83  318
3 Furcal      .81  210
4 Jeter       .65  174
5 Rollins     .65  288
  Aviles      .64  138

In Furcal, I was able to afford I player not far from the top two, for a substantially lower price.

Outfield

1 Beltran    .83  234
2 Ordonez    .82  174
3 Granderson .81  192
4 Bay        .81  210
5 Kemp       .80  210
  Drew       .80  96
  Pierre     .79  84
  Ethier     .76  154
  Damon      .74  138

I tend to look for bargains among outfielders. In general, there are more good alternatives among outfielders most days. Today is no exception, as Drew, Pierre, and Ethier (or Damon) provide good, cheap alternatives who are just barely worse than the top five outfielders. Several of these players (Pierre in particular) seem to be ending up on my team and my opponents' teams often enough that they're likely to be among those whose prices will be modified soon.

Using the same ratings, my Snapdraft team for the day is Martin, Cabrera, Pedroia, Rodriguez, Furcal, Beltran, Drew, Pierre, Vazquez, and Kazmir. That looks a lot more like an all-star team, and that's fairly typical. Snapdraft uses the same $27M salary cap for all contests. The disadvantage is that teams in the same contest tend to look fairly similar, because it doesn't force tough decisions. The advantage is that you can use the same lineup in multiple contests at the click of a button.

Posted by Alex Zelvin at 12:30am (1) Comments

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Roster Doctor - 5/19/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Time was a little short for me this week so I did not have time to finish part two of the strikeout debate article, so instead you are treated to an extra Roster Doctor today! I decided to go traditional...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other notes: Nine keepers per year
Roster:

C - Mike Napoli
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Alex Rodriguez
SS - Jose Reyes
OF - Alfonso Soriano
OF - Bobby Abreu
OF - Johnny Damon
Util - Joey Votto
BN - Kurt Suzuki
BN - Mark Reynolds
BN - Juan Pierre
BN - Daniel Murphy
BN - Andrew McCutcheon

SP - Zack Greinke
SP - Rich Harden
SP - James Shields
SP - Ervin Santana
RP - Heath Bell
RP - Huston Street
BN - Derek Lowe
BN - Ted Lilly
BN - Gil Meche
BN - Kris Medlen
BN - Fernando Rodney

As usual, I will start with the hitting; the impressive hitting, I should say. Your lineup is stacked from top to bottom and even has solid depth. Napoli and Suzuki are two good young catchers, one with obscene power and the other with good all-around skills. Your infielders sound like a list of MVP candidates and all are performing decently well as of late. Berkman, who was the lone concern, has really picked it up in the last week as he should have been expected to. No reason to panic there.

Although on the older side, all three of your outfielders are playing great so far this season. Damon in particular, is playing exceptionally well and I would look to sell him high right now. Looking from the perspective of a keeper league, his value might never be higher than it is now for the rest of his career. As someone living in the New York area who gets to see him everyday, it is only a matter of time until pitchers stop lobbing him that down and inside pitch he loves to turn on. See what you can get for him.

Votto is a monster of a hitter, but I am concerned about him right now. As an A's fan, I know a thing about fluky injuries, and the repeated dizziness he has been experiencing lately is hopefully the result of just a minor illness. Most likely that will be the case and he will be back in the lineup before we know it, but for the next couple of days bench him.

You mention your offense has struggled the past few weeks; I see little area for upgrade so I would stick with the guys you got for now. Any struggles are the result of random fluctuations due to the small sample size of one week.

Looking at your pitching, it appears to be fairly good, but I do not see it as being as dominant as you describe. For as many pitchers that have been good for you this year (Greinke, Lowe, Lilly, Broxton) I can name as many that have done poorly (Harden, Shields, Santana, Meche). Shields I find particularly concerning because of his uncharacteristically low K rate and high walk rate.

In my opinion, it is your pitching that you should be focusing on improving—more than your lineup—and I would look to acquire an ace type of pitcher. You have solid depth, your rotation goes more than five pitchers deep, but you lack a second sure thing besides Greinke. It would be beneficial to sacrifice a little of your depth in exchange for one more ace-type of pitcher. And if it is too hard to get an ace, you could always target a buy low like Lester or maybe even Verlander.

Medlen is a nice pickup, and although I might not start him right away, the stats he put up in Triple-A this year are too impressive to ignore. He could turn out to be an asset down the road.

Stay active like you have, rework your rotation a little, and I think your team should stay in contention for a championship this year.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:41am

Who is next Joe Saunders?

During the early days of the 2009 season, many people involved in fantasy baseball were obsessed with Cliff Lee. Not the player himself. But rather the ideal.

The question, “Who is the next Cliff Lee?” was posed again and again, referring to a player hanging on the waiver wire expected to emerge, dominate, and stick to a fantasy roster for good.

For a while, it looked like Cliff Lee would become the new Chris Shelton, as in a player who serves as an object lesson to fantasy players everywhere. (In Shelton’s case, we mean a player who has a strong April and then fades into obscurity.)

But Cliff Lee may not be the most influential ballplayer for those in fantasy leagues. That honor now seems to belong to Joe Saunders.

Joe Saunders doesn’t give statheads much to like. He strikes out less than five batters every nine innings. He’s fairly meager in allowing walks—about 2.5 per 9 in the last three years—but not at a level where anybody would call it an elite skill. He gives up enough fly balls and home runs (about one every nine innings) to pose some concern.

If pitchers control three outcomes—a strikeout, a walk, and a home run—Saunders doesn’t do any of these things well enough to support great success in the major leagues. And yet, despite the naysayers, Saunders has emerged as one of the most valuable pitchers in fantasy leagues, with a 22-9 record and a sub-3.5 ERA since the beginning of 2008.

Now, anytime a pitcher flashes great results and so-so skills, the retort eventually becomes, “Well, what about Joe Saunders?”

Well, what about him? And what about Matt Palmer, Matt Harrison, Zach Duke, and any other pitcher who can’t prevent balls from being hit in play?

These guys may all be tempting to grab based on recent success. As Saunders shows, it’s certainly possible for a pitcher to overcome the absence of strong peripherals and pitch or luck into having value.

A couple years ago, another low-skill pitcher, Brian Bannister, gave an interview that briefly excited the statistical community by teasing that smarts could possibly cover shortcomings. Bannister struggled thereafter, but he’s back now, with a 3-1 record and a 1.8 ERA heading into tonight’s battle with Cliff Lee.

On the other hand, we have to point out Armando Galarraga, who may just as well been Joe Saunders’ twin last year. Last year, Galarraga had a 13-7 record and a 3.74 ERA despite having similarly iffy skills. This year, Galarraga teased us with a good start, but has since collapsed, allowing 21 runs in the last 17 innings he’s pitched.

That’s the danger with any pitcher who is allowing the ball to be hit into play, or can’t eradicate the dangers associated with walks and home runs. It’s a tightrope dance with the fates of luck.

Personally, we prefer perennial underachievers like Javier Vazquez to perpetual overachievers like Joe Saunders. With Vazquez, your downside is a good amount of strikeouts and a very good WHIP. Unfortunately, wins and ERA don’t always follow. But with overachievers, your upside is capped and your floor is wrecked ratios.

Being risk-adverse won’t always pay off. There’s no way of knowing who will equal Joe Saunders’ success this coming season. Frankly, we’re still not sure whether Joe Saunders himself can keep this up. And that’s the point. If there’s something you don’t know, sometimes it’s best to just leave it alone.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:26am (2) Comments

Monday, May 18, 2009

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: The next Juan Pierre

The Los Angeles Dodgers were rolling with an outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Either. All three were producing like elite outfielders, and there was no room for anyone else. The player most despised by the sabre-punditry, Juan Pierre, was finally the sunk cost it vociferously advocated for,and his value in fantasy baseball was zero.

Then Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games due to steroid usage. Pierre zoomed from nothing to potentially becoming the player he had always been: a high contact, no power, all speed hitter.

With doubts present, Pierre has proven everyone wrong and hit over .400 since being given the chance to earn his $9 million salary. In addition to hitting for a high average, he is stealing bases and getting extra-base hits. There is little question that Pierre has recovered his fantasy value after sitting on his owners’ active roster for a month and contributing little.

The question one wants to ask is who is the next player to go from zero to sixty and increase his fantasy value like Pierre did. The top two players right now are Minnesota Twins outfielder Carlos Gomez and Texas Rangers catcher Taylor Teagarden.

Both entered the season as platoon players (Gomez with Delmon Young, Denard Span and Michael Cuddyer and Teagarden with Jarrod Saltalamacchia) and both had the advantage of being considered better defensive players than their competition, making the expectation that Gomez and Teagarden would receive their fair share of at-bats reasonable.

Unfortunately, both players have been relegated to back-up status. Gomez appears to be the victim of Denard Span’s plate discipline, Michael Cuddyer’s veteran-ness and Delmon Young’s future trade value. Teagarden appears to be sitting so that Saltalamacchia can get a last chance to prove his value as a hitter and improve his trade value.

Gomez and Teagarden should both still meet expectations if they can get playing time. Gomez is still an excellent defender with tantalizing speed. Full-time at-bats makes him a 30-plus steal player, and Teagarden still has the power and plate discipline to be a 15 home run, .260 average catcher. Like the unforeseen Manny Ramirez suspension that made Pierre a legitimate fantasy contributor, all that is needed is an unforeseen event to make them valuable once more.

Here are a few other players to watch along the same lines:

1B/2B/3B Ronnie Belliard, Washington Nationals: Injuries all over the Nationals infield in 2008 allowed Belliard to prove his value and qualify at three positions for 2009. His teammates' continuing good health stand in his way of doing the same in 2009.

2B Edgar Gonzalez, San Diego Padres: As a 30-year-old rookie, Adrian’s older brother hit .274 with seven home runs in 325 at-bats. The Padres decided to add veteran middle infielder David Eckstein and shift him to second full-time. Whether the money spent outweighs the marginal improvement in defense seems immaterial given the Padres’ mandate to go cheap in 2009.

2B/OF Eugenio Velez, San Francisco Giants: The speedster was part of a three-headed spring competition with Kevin Frandsen and Emmanuel Burriss. Burriss has received all the playing time at second while Velez has languished on the bench.

Last Week: I advocated not panicking on established players who have struggled so far. The debate turned towards a hypothetical sell high of Michael Young for Jhonny Peralta. From Sunday to Saturday, Young went 11-for-22 with a steal and two RBIs, and Peralta went 13-for-27 with six RBIs.

Posted by Eric Hinz at 1:53am (0) Comments

Roster Doctor 05/18/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5 with OBP replacing Avg.
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other notes: none
Roster:

C: A.J. Pierzynski
1B: Mark Teixeira
2B: Ian Kinsler
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Rafael Furcal
OF: Carlos Lee
OF: Andre Ethier
OF: Matt Kemp
UT: Adam Lind
BN: J.D. Drew
BN: Yunel Escobar
BN: Scott Rolen

SP: James Shields
SP: Erik Bedard
RP: Scott Downs
RP: Mike Gonzalez
P: Joe Beimel
P: Roy Oswalt
P: Jon Lester
BN: Ricky Nolasco
BN: Edwin Jackson
DL: Ervin Santana

It should be noted that Alan recently acquired Lester and Bedard. I have to say that I love the acquisition of Lester, as he is a great buy-low candidate right now. His BABIP is a ridiculously high .389, he is striking out a ton of hitters (10.34 batters per nine innings) and his 3.06 BB/9 rate is in line with last year's rate (2.82 BB/9). He’s giving up a few more fly balls this year (39.4 percent FB%) and an astounding number of those fly balls have turned into home runs. While HR/FB rates tend to hover around 10 percent, Lester’s HR/FB rate this year has been a whopping 18.5 percent (compare that to his career rate of 9.3 percent).

I do like Bedard but I am actually trying to trade him in one of my leagues. While I definitely like his skill set, I am a little concerned about his inability to stay healthy for an entire year. He has thrown over 175 innings only twice in his career, and over 140 innings only three times. In fact, he has already missed one start due to an injury, and though the injury wasn’t pitching related and isn’t considered serious, it still serves as an example of his fragility. I can’t imagine his value being any higher than it is right now, so my advice would be to trade him as soon as possible, before a seemingly inevitable trip to the disable list.

Another guy I would look to trade is Shields. His 3.98 ERA looks a little better than it really is, as his strikeouts are down and his walks are up, and his FIP is currently at 3.79. On the other hand, I like Nolasco, as his BABIP is at .387 and his FIP is nearly 4.5 runs lower than his ERA.

It looks like this team is doing fairly well in the power department, especially with A-Rod back. Its pretty clear, though, that stolen bases is a category this team will have difficulty winning on a weekly basis. I’d check the waiver wire for guys like Juan Pierre, Michael Bourn and Randy Winn. While I may not play them all the time, its still nice to have that speed option when you are up against a team who is also struggling with stolen bases.

For the hitters, I would try to trade Lind. He’s shown improvement this year, but it looks like he has nowhere to go but down. He is currently sporting a .366 BABIP, and ZiPS is projecting 13 more home runs for him. I’d try to trade him now as it seems like unlikely that his value will be any higher than it is now.

This team isn’t bad, and I’d expect this team to compete every week. When this roster was emailed to us 10 days ago, it was sitting in fourth place. It has some nice trade bait, and I think with the proper trades, this team could eventually work its way towards the top.

Posted by Marco Fujimoto at 1:44am (2) Comments

Friday, May 15, 2009

Roster doctor - 5/15/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

An unconventional roster for today...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 10 (with two divisions)
Categories: Traditional 5x5 + extra-base hits and blown saves
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head (One win or loss each week)
Other notes: Five teams make playoffs, two keepers
Roster:

C - Brandon Inge
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - Michael Young
3B - Alex Rodriguez
OF - Grady Sizemore
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Curtis Granderson
UT - Bobby Abreu
BN - Raul Ibanez
BN - Nick Swisher
BN - Mike Lowell

SP - Roy Halladay
SP - CC Sabathia
SP - Joe Saunders
SP - Tim Wakefield
SP - Barry Zito
RP - Francisco Rodriguez
RP - Heath Bell
RP - Fernando Rodney
RP - Kevin Gregg
BN - Brandon Morrow

This is one of those really shallow leagues where everyone's hitting looks like an all-star team. However, your team is, I am guessing, in the upper echelon of hitting teams because even your preseason "scrubs" like Inge (doubtful you drafted him), Swisher, and Hill especially have come through. The only position you could easily upgrade is catcher with Inge, who should not continue hitting anywhere near as well as he has. Other than at catcher, hitting upgrades will be hard and unnecessary so I would stick with the guys you got.

The biggest problem with your hitting right now—and I call it a problem sarcastically—is that you have hitters on your bench worthy of a starting gig. I would imagine other teams have a similar "problem" so I am not naive and expect a deal that consolidates you hitting to be easily done, but if a good one comes around I would accept.

In the meantime depth is not the worst of things, especially when injuries can happen anytime and it also allows you to platoon players to get favorable lefty/righty splits or sit them if one is facing Chad Billingsley and the other Chad Gaudin. All that is required is a little effort.

As for your pitching—it is pretty obvious and you expressed the concern yourself, about your lack of starting pitching depth. Saunders and Zito have done admirably so far but I do not expect them to maintain ERAs under 4.00 going forward. Wakefield is an easy drop and that leaves you with your two aces, Halladay and Sabathia.

Another type of deal I would explore is one where you give one of either your bench or starting outfielders—depending on who you get back—and a closer in exchange for another starting pitcher. In this way you can use two areas in which you are overloaded to fill a void.

With just the two aces though, you can employ what I call the Implode Strategy, a favorite strategy of mine in H2H leagues. It works like this: You always start by only pitching your aces and closers. If they do well, you consider benching your starting pitchers for the rest of the week, hoping to win ERA and WHIP, with saves and blown saves as toss-ups (potential victories). Wins and Strikeouts are sacrificed. In the event of CC or Halladay having a bad start (imploding for six runs in five innings), it probably is not worth it to try and come back in ERA and WHIP categories. What you do then, is use two roster spots every night for the rest of the week for streaming. Now the opposite happens; Wins and Ks should be won, ERA and WHIP most likely lost, and saves and blown saves remain toss-ups.

Every week should not be so extreme keep in mind. Most weeks you should stream or sit pitchers to a lesser degree than what I described above. What this does is let you at least tie pitching categories, leaving it up to your hitting vs. theirs to decide who wins the matchup. If they beat you in hitting, then they beat you in hitting.

Overall I like this team and it should at least make the playoffs. Once you're in, anything can happen then. Good luck!

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:11am

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Andrew Bailey | Oakland | RP
YTD: 10.5 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 1.61 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 saves, 7 games, 4.59 ERA
In the California and Texas Leagues the past two years, Andrew Bailey has been used primarily as a starter, and a rigorous projection system like “True Talent” weighs his good-but-not-great numbers in those years. However, the 6-foot-3, 235-pound fireballer has lately stepped into a relief role like it’s his calling. The main reason that Bailey is not already closing for Oakland is so that the A’s can squeeze more innings out of him. Pick him up now, and even if he doesn’t help you immediately in saves, he’ll help you in ERA and WHIP. “Ziggy” owners, beware!

Juan Cruz | Kansas City | RP
YTD: 6.3 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 1.72 ERA
True Talent: 9.9 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.4 saves, 6 games, 3.64 ERA
Joakim Soria might have Tweeted “i be back,” and we agree that's likely. Still, Juan Cruz has shown marginally closer-worthy skills for years, and he is significantly better than his much more highly paid teammate Kyle Farnsworth. Walks can still get the best of Cruz (as attested by his career WHIP of 1.37), but he should be rate-stat-neutral, and he will get virtually all the KC saves while “The Mexicutioner” is out, and a smattering thereafter, as well.

Luke Hochevar | Kansas City | SP
YTD: (don't look)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Luke Hochevar is better than Sidney Ponson; of course, that's like saying that a steak house is better than a lunch wagon. Most analyses regard Hochevar as a 5.0-5.5 Runs/Game pitcher, on a team scoring under 4.5 Runs/Game. His Triple-A stats suggest that he’s healthy, but a .241 BABIP makes them look overly enticing. He won't help your WHIP, ERA, K, or wins, regardless of how many times he was drafted in the first round.

Phil Hughes | New York | SP
YTD: 6.2 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 8.49 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.97 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Hughes’s True Talent is the portrait of a run-of-the-mill thrower. That said, a run-of-the-mill thrower can be useful when he does his throwing in front of a 5.5+ RPG offense like New York’s. Moreover, as Branch Rickey noted, “the difference between a great pitcher and a run-of-the-mill thrower is astoundingly slight.” And in the minors, Hughes looked “great,” so the “slight difference” could yet be overcome.

Julio Lugo | Boston | SS
YTD: .270/.341/.405
True Talent: .262/.329/.366
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, .258 BA, 0.5 SB
Not much fanfare surrounded Julio Lugo's return, but he can still be a valuable fantasy asset. The 39-SB/.300 BA days are long past, but as the knee gets closer to 100%, look for him to resume the 25-30 SB pace that’s his norm in Boston. Also, this line-up offers more opportunities for runs and RBI than most No. 9 hitters get. Lugo should fend off Nick Green, and if Lugo hits well, Lowrie could end up in a utility role upon his August return.

Dioner Navarro | Tampa Bay | C
YTD: .190/.218/.257
True Talent: .253/.313/.368
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .251 BA, 0.1 SB
Dioner Navarro has never been much more than filler, but this year he’s slumping not only at hittting but also at throwing out runners. If this combination persists, it could cost him PT. Nonetheless, Navarro has a good chance to turn things around—he has hit far fewer liners and grounders this year, instead hitting more infield flies (IFF/FB% at 30%, up from 14% in 2008). But there are no reports of physical ailments, so we expect to see the '08 model again soon.

Nolan Reimold | Baltimore | OF
YTD: .394/.485/.743 (IL) with 9 HR/6 SB
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
That whoooosh you hear is the sound of International League pitchers exhaling. Nolan Reimold is called up! The Orioles had said that they wouldn't promote Reimold until they were ready to make him a starter, and he seems likely to supplant Pie when all the O’s are healthy again. Despite the hot start, Reimold is no superstar, so don’t break the bank in a keeper league, but he should be able to match Luke Scott's production, with a few SB thrown in. It's his time.

Brandon Wood | Los Angeles | 3B/SS
YTD: .351/.439/.877 (PCL) with 8 HR in 57 AB
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: (minors)
Back in 1993, Lou Piniella “doghoused” a young 2B named Bret Boone—benching him, demoting him, and finally running him out of town, all because Boone wouldn't change his approach at the plate. Manager Mike Scioscia has not been quite so dramatic with Brandon Wood, but it’s clear that something needs to change in Wood’s fortunes, but who knows whether it will, or when? Grab Wood if you have “mad money” that you don’t care if you ever see it again.

National League by Michael Street

Chris Coghlan | Florida Marlins | OF
YTD: .250/.286/.500
True Talent: .251/.324/.373
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .244 BA, 0.8 SB
The beneficiary of Cameron Maybin’s demotion, Coghlan is playing in the OF now, but he may eventually qualify at 2B and 3B, too. He has been a solid minor-league hitter, with an excellent batting eye (1.05 BB/K) and an outstanding 80% SB success rate. Expect doubles power and decent stolen bases, even if True Talent isn’t optimistic about his BA and power just yet. Good keeper pick-up.

Jorge de la Rosa | Colorado Rockies | SP
YTD: 8.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.53 ERA
True Talent: 7.8 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.68 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 wins, 5 K, 4.69 ERA
De la Rosa has had mixed luck this year. His BABIP is a low .269 (vs. a career .319), yet he’s winless. And his ERA is 4.34 at home and 2.65 on the road, even though his home K/BB is 4.2 and 1.3 everywhere else. He's going to win some games and deliver some strikeouts, but ultimately that True Talent K/BB of 1.9, with half his starts coming at Coors, caps his upside.

Jerry Hairston | Cincinnati Reds | UT
YTD: .268/.326/.476
True Talent: .265/.325/.408
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .263 BA, 0.4 SB
In most leagues, Hairston qualifies at several positions, including several infield spots, where his current batting line plays very well. What has been strange so far are his platoon splits, as he is hitting .194/.242/.419 against LHP, after nearly nonexistent splits heretofore. That deviation should normalize, especially since he plays nearly every game and has been smoking the ball. Be ready for him to cool off, but enjoy the hot hand on top of his versatility.

Nick Johnson | Washington Nationals | 1B
YTD: .333/.411/.447
True Talent: .281/.410/.461
Next Week Forecast: 1.1 HR, 5 R, 4 RBI, .288 BA, 0.3 SB
Nobody doubted Johnson’s talent, but injuries have kept him down. Thus far in 2009, he has dodged the DL and is producing at a rate almost identical to last year’s hot pre-injury start—the difference this year is the BA, as he’s turning walks into hits. True Talent says that will not last, but as long as he’s healthy, he’s someone you want. Grab him if you can, but have a back-up plan in case the DL bug bites again.

Kyle Lohse | St. Louis Cardinals | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.25 ERA
True Talent: 5.7 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.31 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 4.61 ERA
In his first four starts, Lohse was 3-1 with a 2.42 ERA, and he was a hot pick-up. And then he gave up 13 runs in 10.1 IP in his last two starts. HEATER readers saw it coming, as these latter starts pushed his stat line right to his True Talent predictions. Now, Lohse is complaining of back pain, after knee and elbow issues earlier this season. We're staying far away, as his low-K ways don't offset the downside in most leagues.

Shairon Martis | Washington Nationals | SP
YTD: 4.5 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 4.10 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 5.09 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.1 IP, 0.6 wins, 8 K, 5.05 ERA
Martis’ 5-0 record gives him almost half of the Nats’ 11 wins. Even more impressive is that he has racked up these Ws while underperforming his projected peripherals. His True Talent is discouraging, but the young fireballer has sharply improved his groundball rate (41.8 GB% vs. 33.3% in 2008), and he has room to raise his strikeouts. He could be a lightning-in-a-bottle sort for the season.

Juan Pierre | Los Angeles Dodgers | OF
YTD: .411/.468/.518
True Talent: .294/.337/.365
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .295 BA, 1.9 SB
With Manny now a spectator, Pierre is finally earning his paycheck and hitting out of his shoes. True Talent tells you that he’s going to start hitting more like the guy who has averaged 150 games of .286/.329/.359 over the past four years. Pierre will keep giving you steals (who couldn’t use 2 SB next week?), but don't convince yourself that he has discovered the Fountain of Youth.

Eric Stults | Los Angeles Dodgers | SP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 3.58 ERA
True Talent: 6.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.63 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 4.86 ERA
After pitching a CG shutout against the Giants, Stults is showing up on everyone’s roster. But that was the first start this year without a walk, and he struck out only five. Even with those numbers, he is underperforming his projected K/BB because his other starts were so bad (overall 1.1 K/BB, 4.94 ERA). He's just not on track. Hiroki Kuroda should push Stults back to the bullpen when he returns, and whatever marginal value Stults has will evaporate then.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by THT Staff at 1:56am (3) Comments

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Apprehensive yet Comprehensive: Personal Strategies and Secrets for Dominating Your Keeper League

I’ll admit it, I’ve grown comfortable with you guys. So, how would you like to know my innermost keeper league secrets? Yeah? Okay. Just, you know, keep it to yourself.

When it comes to evaluating prospects, ultimately I’m looking for superstars. I’m looking for the next .300/30/30 threat and the next 20-game winner. But, then again, who isn’t? It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that superstars are your ultimate asset. But they are few and far between. Not every kid that dominates Single-A will do the same in the majors. In fact, some of those kids may never even see the majors.

After the superstars have all been plucked, are too expensive, or are unavailable, I’m looking for the prospects that project to be above-average players. I have no interest in a shortstop whose prime year will result in a .253 average with six home runs and nine steals, or a first baseman whose prime spells .266 with 14 home runs. Likewise, I don’t want a starting pitcher with mediocre stuff who hopes to crack a 4.00 ERA by the time he hits his prime. I want guys who will be real assets to my team. The trick is in discovering which highly touted prospects are just blowing smoke.

When it comes down to it, the higher the level of competition, the higher the level of respect. Double-A is where real player evaluation begins. It’s the level where teams lengthen the leash on their star pitchers and allow them to use their full arsenals. It’s the level where every hitter has shown a good enough skill set and has paid his dues. It’s the level where players realize that they are just one phone call away from the majors. But it’s also the level where frustration and career first slumps can set in.

I buy into the idea that if a player with real prospect status can play at an above-average level at either Double-A or Triple-A, a major league career of at least some substance is on the horizon.

When I evaluate an advanced pitcher over the course of a season, I look at strikeouts, walks, and WHIP. A pitcher that averages in the neighborhood of a strikeout per inning has the ability to be at least a No. 2 or 3 starter, with the potential to develop into an ace. A pitcher that doesn’t have the big strikeout numbers but does have a low walk rate is someone I look at as a back of the rotation type, but most of these guys still have the arsenal to grow into a No. 2 or 3. I look at WHIP simply as a better measure of minor league success than ERA or wins. Take a peek at the rest of the stat line, but take it with a grain of salt. Another one I like to look at is BABIP. Anything significantly above or below league average should raise some eyebrows.

When I evaluate a position player, it comes down to more than just a few major stats. Position obviously comes into play, but you want as many .300/30 hitters as you can get, regardless of position. It’s a balancing act. Overall, I need information on home runs, doubles, batting average, stolen bases, stolen base success rate, walks and strikeouts, among others. If a player offers nothing but speed, I want nothing to do with him.

I try to be careful with doubles. Doubles can be an indicator of future home run power, but looks can be deceiving. A high doubles rate could just be an exceptionally fast or instinctive base runner stretching would-be singles into doubles.

Home runs are the meat and potatoes of evaluating a hitter, but if a slugger strikes out a third of the time he’s at the plate, can only draw a handful of walks, and can’t hit for a respectable average, what good will 20-25 home runs do? I’m looking at you, Greg Halman.

I have come under fire from some readers for not including Greg Halman on or anywhere near my ongoing Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list. No, it was not an oversight. Greg Halman is one of the more overrated prospects in baseball, and his poor 2009 Double-A performance is exposing his flaws. I have been accused of ignoring the “elite” power that Halman possesses. Halman does not have elite power. He has plus power. Twenty to 25 home runs a year would look good coming from a No. 3 outfielder. But how good will a .245 batting average look? From Seattle’s perspective, how good will 160 strikeouts, a paltry 35-40 walks, and a .300 OBP look? It’s Seattle that will or won’t give Halman his playing time. How much playing time would you give a player who would produce those numbers over the course of a season? Don’t let his age fool you. If he’s struggling mightily against Double-A pitching, what will his major league struggles look like?

I owned Halman during the 2008 season in a keeper league. The only reason was because I knew his prospect status was high in many circles, thus he would carry value in a trade. I packaged him with four or five other, better prospects and in exchange landed Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard from a team looking to rebuild. Without Halman the deal was a no go.

I specialize in scouting minor league baseball, but I consider myself a realist in that area as well. Never get too high on any one prospect. When putting together a trade, if I am getting an All-Star in his prime, I am willing to give up a couple of good prospects.

The best example I can think of involves a keeper league that I am a part of at Franchise Baseball League. Just before the 2008 season I packaged then top prospects Ian Kennedy and Felix Pie together with the since struggling Jose Tabata. In exchange I received Roy Halladay, Daniel Duffy, and some other lower prospects. At the time, I viewed Kennedy as a pitcher who would initially struggle as he adjusts to the majors. I was right, and Kennedy’s stock has since plummeted. I questioned Pie’s plate discipline, swing consistency, ability to hit secondary pitches, and work ethic. My feelings were correct. I questioned, and still question, Tabata’s power, plate discipline, and love for the game. He still has time to prove me wrong, but I will chalk that one up as another win. Yet, all of these guys were considered, at the very least, Top 50 prospects. So, what went wrong? Modern media hype.

In the same keeper league, just before the start of this season, I traded Trevor Cahill and a couple of low level prospects for Roy Oswalt. No matter your view on Oswalt, I saw Cahill as a pitcher that if he lived up to all the hype, he would have a Roy Oswalt-esque career. Why not just get the real thing rather than invest in hopes and dreams?

Cahill has initially struggled, as I expected. But he is a guy I hope to reacquire at some point in the next couple of seasons (I hope his owner isn’t reading this), if his stock gets low enough.

Always expect rookie prospects to struggle in their first couple of years in the majors. You’ll be much better off. But, in turn, expect those now former top prospects to turn it on by the time they reach their prime, age 25, 26, or 27. This simple system pays dividends every year. It’s a matter of buying low and selling high, which often seems to be the case. If possible, cash in on any top ten prospect not named Matt Wieters now. In a year or two, most of those top ten stocks won’t be worth anywhere near what they were. Reacquire the player just before their prime. Rinse and repeat. It’s the No. 1 player acquisition strategy that I use.

Guys that you should look into acquiring right now; Clay Buchholz, Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, Phil Hughes, Homer Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, Brandon Wood, Jeremy Hermida, Delmon Young, Howie Kendrick, Alex Gordon, Colby Rasmus, and Billy Butler. And that’s just off the top of my head. At least half of these guys will have long, successful careers. The trick is doing your homework and figuring out which half will turn it on in their prime and which half will fade off into the sunset. And yet, two or three of them will still live up their initial hype. If you’re holding a gun to my head, I’ll say Buchholz, Scherzer, and Butler are the best investments.

When dealing with a player’s prime you also have to know when things are going downhill, and then cash in on the hype, brand name, and reputation. Just before this year, in a Yahoo keeper league, I traded David Ortiz for Matt LaPorta and the future rights to Caleb Gindl, Gordon Beckham, and Michael Montgomery. I was laughed at by some of my rival GMs, but I’ll be doing the laughing from here on out.

So, what made Ortiz a player trending downward? Injuries and conditioning. Watch out for 31, 32, 33 year old hitters that break their hands, suffer from chronic pain or weakening in their wrists, etc. It’s hard to get back to full strength when those injuries happen. Watch out for the overweight players in the game. Watch out for the players that aren’t particularly strong or athletic, or the ones that don’t generally keep themselves in the best of shape. They’re all giving you warning signs.

It should go without saying that you must avoid any pitcher that suffers from a major arm or back issue. But even I don’t listen to myself sometimes.

Before the 2008 season, I traded Johnny Cueto for Chad Cordero straight up, even though it was apparent that Cordero was far from 100 percent. I figured I would take a gamble by trading an overhyped prospect for a potentially dominant major league closer approaching his prime.

As long as I’m chasing the skeletons out of my closet, oh yeah, I also still own David Ortiz in another keeper league, despite fielding trade offers. I just didn’t see a deal on par with the LaPorta steal that I received in my Yahoo league. So, I held onto Ortiz.

I make mistakes too. I just need to follow my rules more often than not. And as long as I follow my set of rules, nine times out of ten I’ll be sitting pretty near the top of any keeper league.

Send any minor league comments, questions, and concerns to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:36am (4) Comments

Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Roster Doctor - 5/13/09

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 12:37pm (1) Comments

Daily fantasy baseball contest picks for Wednesday, May 13th

I’m going to try something a little different this week, and discuss my daily contest strategy for Wednesday’s games in detail. I think that should give those who haven’t tried the games yet a better feel for what’s involved in them, and prove useful for those who are trying to plan their Wednesday contest lineups. If feedback is positive, this is something I could do on a regular basis.

At each position, I’ll list the top five healthy players according to my ratings, along with their prices in Draftbug. Snapdraft’s scoring is VERY similar, so the same ratings should apply, although the pricing varies enough that you could end up with a very different lineup using the same ratings. In any case, the thought process for making selections would be the same regardless of what daily contest format you're playing.

A few people have asked whether I’d be willing to share the "guts" of my ratings spreadsheet here. This is probably about as close as I’m willing to get right now. However, if people email me at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) I’m happy to discuss specific issues in statistical modeling for daily contests.

For each position, I’ll list my ratings for the top five players, as well as any others that I seriously considered putting in my lineup for the day. Depending on the size of the contest and the buy-in, the salary cap varies between contests at Draftbug (unlike Snapdraft, which always uses the same salary cap), so I’m going to use a cap of 1500 points, which is more or less in the middle of the range. Keep in mind that the ratings listed are specifically for Wednesday’s games, based on factors such as park, opponents, platoon advantage, and home field advantage.

Starting Pitchers:

1 Lee         13.8     279
2 Nolasco     13.1     209
3 Pettitte    12.3     100
4 Lilly       12.2     189
5 Outman      10.8     10

For pitchers, the points projection listed is for the game as a whole. In general, starting pitchers have the widest spread in projected points, so I often spend the salary on my top-rated pitcher. I can find other places to save salary that won’t have as much impact. This is an unusually weak day for starting pitchers, and Cliff Lee (at home) against Buehrle and the White Sox is my top-rated pitcher. He may actually be even better than my rating suggests, because good control pitchers aren’t currently given the favorable innings pitched projections they deserve in my statistical model. Despite the high price, and the unlucky start he had to his season, he’s a pretty easy choice for me.

Relief pitchers:

1 Rivera    3.9   186
2 Wood      3.6   126
3 Papelbon  3.5   210
4 Broxton   3.5   138
5 Hanrahan  3.3   78

I’m going to go with Wood for my relief pitcher. An argument could also be made for Rivera (who has the highest rating) or Hanrahan (who is substantially cheaper). One thing to note here is that Broxton’s price will probably need revising (upwards) the next time prices are adjusted, which happens every few weeks. At his current price, he’s a pretty big bargain, since he’s often my top-rated reliever. He’s one of the few players who tends to get picked by a high percentage of players at his current price level.

Catchers

1 Mauer     .78  174
2 Soto      .71  162
3 McCann    .68  186
4 Iannetta  .67  120
5 Martin    .67  174

For hitters, my ratings are listed per at-bat. Ideally, my model would incorporate average batting order position, and the team's on-base percentage. For now, I'm simply assuming about five plate appearances per game for all players, and keeping in mind that players who bat higher in the order are likely to outperform those who don't. The two reasonable choices at catcher today look like Mauer and Iannetta. I’ll go with Mauer, but if I was in a contest with a cap lower than 1500, I’d probably save some of my salary room by using Iannetta. At catcher, there’s always a risk that your players will take a day off, so the real key is figuring out who isn’t going to skip the game and score no points at all.

First Base

1 Pujols     .93  324
2 Morneau    .81  240
3 Hoffpauir  .78  28
4 Helton     .72  78
5 Pena       .72  174

Today is a fairly typical day for first basemen, with Pujols rated the highest by a lot. However, his high price makes him an impractical choice on many days. Hoffpauir is treated very favorably by the ZIPS projections that I’m basing my daily calculations on. However, he’s the type of player (young and without much major league experience) where the various ratings systems tend to disagree, and where ZIPS may not be as good as some of the others. More importantly, he’s not usually in the starting lineup, so he’s not a good option unless you can check the lineup before your picks "lock" for the day. Helton, on the other hand, is often a great cheap value, as his strengths are a good fit for the points scoring system, and he benefits from playing in Colorado half of the time.

Second Base

1 Kinsler   .81  246
2 Pedroia   .78  234
3 Utley     .77  252
4 Roberts   .72  210
5 Matsui    .71  96

Many days, one of the top three second basemen has such an edge that it’s not worth looking for cheaper alternatives. That’s because they’re not only good, but each plays in an extremely favorable home park. However, today Kaz Matsui is a good, cheap alternative. He benefits from playing at Coors field against a bad pitcher (Jason Marquis). Marquis is a particularly good opponent for players with some speed, because he’s very easy to steal bases against.

Third Base

1 Wright     .81  306
2 Jones      .80  210
3 Figgins    .79  156
4 Atkins     .76  168
5 Rodriguez  .75  300

With a number of relatively evenly matched choices at third base today, Figgins looks like the best value. One caveat here is that I’m still using the park factors for Shea Stadium and the old Yankee Stadium. I know that the early results seem to indicate that Yankee Stadium is now a much better hitters’ park, but I’m going to wait until there’s a little larger sample size before I make the changes in my model. So I may be cheating Wright, and especially Rodriguez.

Shortstop

1 Reyes       .82  318
2 Ramirez     .74  324
3 Theriot     .73  126
4 Rollins     .72  288
5 Tejada      .71  144
  M. Izturis  .71  16

Theriot is a great value at shortstop today. He’s at home in a hitters park, which helps his rating. But the real kicker is that he’s up against Chris Young, who has been one of the very worst pitchers at preventing steals for years. This is one of the cases where using analysis of component statistics really helps. Instead of rating Young as a "good pitcher" across the board, the ratings reflect the fact that he’s a "good pitcher" against many hitters, but an "awful" one against good base stealers. I listed Izturis as an interesting bargain, but like Hoffpauir at first base, you should only use him if you'll be able to confirm that he’s in the lineup for the day.

Outfield

1 Soriano    .88  234
2 Lee        .84  228
3 Crawford   .80  222
4 Cruz       .80  155
5 Beltran    .79  234
  Bradley    .76  126
  Hunter     .75  150
  Abreu      .73  150
  Spilborghs .71  36

With three outfield slots in the standard roster configuration, I find choosing outfielders to be more of an art than a science. Spilborghs is probably due for a price increase, as his low price reflects the lack of playing time he received last year. Cruz was one of the players adjusted upward in the last round of price changes, but he remains a good bargain when he’s home against weak pitchers. Bradley is also worth considering, as long as he’s not nursing a new injury or facing a suspension for anything.

I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts either via email or in the comments section, both about the specific picks for today's games, and about whether this type of article is useful or interesting.

Posted by Alex Zelvin at 1:39am (3) Comments

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

What’s fair value for Manny?

The hopes of many fantasy teams this season took a deep blow when Major League Baseball suspended Manny Ramirez for 50 games late last week for testing positive for the female fertility drug hCG.

Many owners of Manny may have contemplated filing a class action lawsuit against the guy. (Sorry, that probably won't work.) Maybe the second thought involved trade.

But what's Manny worth these days?

First, let's take a look at the real market. Here's a network diagram of recent one-for-one trades involving Manny in the aftermath of the latest PED suspension.

Obviously, some owners have been able to get good players such as Tim Lincecum, Matt Holliday, and Dan Haren in return. The vast majority of trades, though, almost look like frustrated Manny dumps: Eric Stults? Nyjer Morgan? Brian Bannister???

What's really fair value for Manny?

Coming into the season, according to our roundup of projections from respected organizations like Baseball Prospectus, BaseballHQ, ESPN, etc., Manny was expected to produce a line like 30 HR, 99 RBI, 86 runs, 2 steals, and a .299 AVG.

Manny is eligible to return in early July. Nobody knows for sure how the mental stress of being publicly humiliated will sit with Manny upon his return, but given his history of being able to shrug off pressure, we might expect Manny's remaining production in 2009 to be roughly half of those counting stats.

The question then becomes what player will produce 19 weeks of stats in equivalence to Manny's expected 12?

We took consensus preseason projections for all major league players, translated these projections into a player rater similar to the one we covered in this column last week, and compared the resulting values to each other. So who are the players we can expect Manny to equal from now until the end of the season?

According to our data, here's a few names of equivalent value: Milton Bradley, Jayson Werth, Jhonny Peralta, JJ Hardy, Conor Jackson, Robinson Cano.

Of course, not all things are created equal. Anybody accepting Manny in a deal will have to sacrifice a roster position for 50 days since Manny isn't eligible to be put on the disabled list. Every roster spot has value and should certainly be a consideration in Manny's fantasy value.

But here's another idea for everybody dying to get rid of Manny and anybody with a deep bench looking for some long-term upside by acquiring Manny.

Before the season started, we talked about toxic assets, those things that haunt your portfolio but can't reasonably drop. How might you get rid of a toxic asset?

One good idea is to exchange one toxic asset for another. Assets are toxic for different reasons, opening the possibility of trade.

Certainly, there are fantasy teams out there who regret drafting Alexei Ramirez or the above-mentioned Milton Bradley. Perhaps these teams are so sick of these players they'll gladly accept the stability of having a guy like Manny, who they can sit on the bench with some assurance of getting at least some good value down the line.

As for Manny, well, he's a toxic asset unto himself. Perhaps a Manny owner will agree to forfeit their high investment in a dud like Manny for the upside of having another highly drafted guy who thus far hasn't worked out, but who might soon turn the tide.

Can we make a deal, everyone?

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 5:32am (8) Comments

The great strikeout debate

Toward the end of last season at the beginning of September, I wrote an article (at my former site) advocating the use of strikeout percentage (K%) over the more commonly used strikeout per nine innings (K/9).

Derek and I continued to have a good discussion on the topic following the article, which kept me thinking about the issue. Is K% an improvement to K/9? Is there another stat, not yet created, that would better show a pitcher's ability to get strikeouts?

I did not reach a definite answer to these questions, but after playing devil's advocate in my mind a few times (as I will in this article by the way) I feel I have at least made progress on the answer, which lies in understanding K% and K/9, and their similarities, differences, and flaws.

The biggest difference between K% and K/9 is their baseline. K% is strikeout per batter faced while K/9 is strikeout per inning, which is essentially per out.

A baseline of per out is good because every inning, a pitcher must get three outs. How many hits or walks he allows in that time serves only to inflate the number of batters he faces. He must, however, face three batters that get out. Must. K/9 isolates this, ignoring hits and walks, and shows us how many batters he gets out via strikeouts, holding everything else constant (more or less).

A baseline of per batter faced can also be argued as good because it shows, quite clearly, how often a pitcher can strike a batter out and how often he cannot. It does not matter what the non-strikeout outcome was—be it walk, hit, or ball in play out—if the pitcher could not strike the batter out, they are not as good as someone who could.

Proponents of K/9 could argue that including walks in the K/9 equation is detrimental because control is a different skill that should not be taken into account when trying to determine a pitcher's strikeout ability. Proponents of K% could counter that walks should be included because they represent a batter that the pitcher could not strike out.

Both stats do have a major flaw, most notably their dependency on BABIP. Consider the following two innings of work:

Pitcher A
Ground out
Ground out
Strikeout

Pitcher B
Ground out
Ground ball (hit)
Walk
Strikeout
Fly out

Here Pitcher A would have a K/9 of 9.00, as would Pitcher B. Pitcher A's K%, however, is 33.33 percent while Pitcher B's is 20 percent.

This certainly leads one to believe that K% wrongly takes into account ball in play outcomes and K/9 is better because it does not. This argument can be flipped onto itself to prove K/9's dependency on BABIP too, though. Notice how in Pitcher B's inning of work, one ground ball went for an out and another went for a hit.

Oddly, even though both are ground balls, the outcome of the ground ball—hit or out—determines whether that batter affect's the pitchers K/9 rate. When the ground ball goes for a hit, the K/9 remains unchanged. But when the ground ball is converted into an out, the K/9 rate will go down because an out was made that was not a strikeout. That does not seem right.

Taking a step back, it seems we have done a good job of pointing out the strengths of weaknesses of both stats. With the flaws both have, I think it is possible to create a new, better stat. To do this, I will take what consider the best of both K/9 and K%.

The per out baseline of K/9 is too illogical, only counting balls in play when they go for outs, and therefore I like the batters faced baseline of K% better. I do like the way K/9 ignores walks, which should be kept separate from the ability to strike batters out.

From these two preferences arise the new stat whose equation is K/(K + BIP) and I will call it True K for now, or TK.

Do I think TrueK is perfect? No. But I do believe it is better at showing who the best strikeout pitchers are. Agree? Disagree? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:36am

Monday, May 11, 2009

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Panic time

As most hitters have accumulated over 100 plate appearances, many fantasy leaguers are beginning to see their players’ good and/or bad starts to the 2009 season as indicative of the 2009 full season performances. This is normally the point where all the patience exercised in the first 20 percent of the season will be spent, and it is the worst time to panic, no matter how bad Jhonny Peralta, David Ortiz, Troy Tulowitzki, Jimmy Rollins or Kevin Kouzmanoff look right now.

Of course, if you play in a mixed league, there is a lot less to worry about as you are likely (should be) sitting most of these players. Or have the option to do so thanks to a relatively deep pool of full-time players. Boo hoo, you have to start Christian Guzman until Jimmy Rollins begins to heat-up.

In AL- and NL-only leagues, want to sit Peralta? Assuming you even have the option to reserve an active player, who you sending in? Ronny Cedeno? Luis Hernandez? Good luck with that! This is why the option to sit any struggling player is close to nil, and the temptation to sell low is nearly impossible to resist.

Once a single league fantasy player capitulates on a Peralta, an even more detrimental situation persists. No matter how frequently the fantasy baseball punditry says you should “buy low,” no one wants to do it. As a matter of fact, those same people who won’t buy low and also won’t “selling high”. Are you dealing Michael Young for Jhonny Peralta?

Five weeks ago, you wouldn’t touch it thanks to the dearth of power amongst the American League shortstops. Now that Michael Young has hit eight home runs to Peralta’s one long ball, you’re terrified of acquiring Peralta despite his being younger and demonstrating 20 home run power more frequently over the past couple seasons than Young has.

So what happens? The panicking owner of Jhonny Peralta is compelled to settle for a sell-high player like Endy Chavez because Endy is likely to play every day, hit around .300, steal 30-plus bases and hit a handful of home runs, because that is what the 31-year-old career defensive replacement has done on a pro-rated basis this season and Peralta has caused too much agita for too long already.

Once the deal is consummated, it is quickly followed by Peralta hitting four homers in the next 10 games while Chavez justifies his career part-timer status with a 2-25 bender that ends in a couple days off from his manager “to clear his head.”

How can you avoid committing this too common mistake in an AL- or NL-only league? Look at the team willing to deal Endy Chavez (or any player who's been hot for 100 at-bats) and ask yourself, "If Peralta had four home runs right now, who would I accept for him in a trade?" If the team doesn’t have enough to make you consider an offer, then hold Peralta and wait for the player the other team offered to cool. By then, you will have likely seen a flip in the standings.

Selling low in an AL/NL-only league means death especially if the player you acquired was sold high to you in the deal as you have locked in one players worst spell of the season while missing out on the other's best.

Last Week Follow-up: I argued last week that mixed leaguers shouldn't be rushing out and picking-up the hot prospect. While this is general advice, the Cleveland Indians' recalled one of the top power prospects in the minor leagues in OF Matt LaPorta. He certainly fits the bill and went 2-for-13 with a home run.

Double follow-up: Two weeks ago, I identified RHP Jamey Wright as a speculative pick in AL-only leagues for saves . On Saturday, Royals manager Trey Hillman said Juan Cruz and Wright would lead a committee of closers while Joakim Soria deals with his recurrence of shoulder discomfort.

Posted by Eric Hinz at 1:59am (9) Comments

Friday, May 08, 2009

Hit Rate Observer

All this talk of the swine flu got me thinking: Every successful strategy is a mutant. The strategy invades a pool of creatures who are blind to its advantages, and it exploits some central feature of the creatures’ day-to-day operation. This continues until the creatures recognize that the strategy is a winner and unleash defenses (usually in the form of mimicry), at which point the strategy has no edge to exploit and becomes harmless.

Suppose that we wanted to introduced a mutant to fantasy baseball. To be most effective, we want to attack the bias that has the widest spread—something that every league, and nearly every player, is vulnerable to. Does such an opportunity exist?

Yes. The most dominant strategy in fantasy today is the LIMA Plan. Devised by The Master, Ron Shandler, the LIMA Plan provides guidance on how to build one’s roster. To be precise, “LIMA” is both a plan (on how to allocate dollars) and a filter (on how to identify pitchers who are worth a bid—i.e., who are “LIMA-caliber”). In this piece, we’ll be focusing on the filter, which is generally expressed as 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, and 1.0 HR/9.

To a good approximation, the LIMA Plan has universal exposure. Every fantasy player worth his or her salt has antibodies against LIMA—you can’t name a pitcher with good base rates and expect him to slide past your leaguemates. This reflex among fantasy GM’s is nearly instinctive—

—Which is good; laziness is what we wish to attack. Rule LIMA, and you’ll rule the world.

But is there a mutant that can beat LIMA? That’s unclear. If there is, though, the secret may be staring us in the face:

LIMA

Technically, “LIMA” stands for “Low-Investment Mound Aces.” However, the name was chosen in a contest because it evoked Jose Lima, the multiple Cy Young winner and first-ballot Hall-of-Famer whose finesse in the diplomatic arena brought lasting peace to—

Oh, you mean the Jose Lima from this reality. The one with a career 5.26 ERA in 1,567 innings. In his 11 seasons of consequential work, Lima had an ERA under 4.00 only twice. Yes, he posted a 3.70 ERA in 33 starts for Houston in 1998, and then a 3.58 ERA in 35 starts the following year; excellent seasons, no doubt. Remove those years, though, and Lima has an ERA of 5.98 and a record of 52-84. It’s true that Lima’s skills went downhill after 1999, but even in his three seasons before 1998, he had ERAs of 5.28, 5.70, and 6.11.

In other words, Jose Lima is not a pitcher whom you wanted to own more than twice in 13 years. And yet, our premier pitching plan is named after him. What a country!

This mismatch elicits a suspicion: How did Jose Lima come to be enshrined? Perhaps there is a flaw here.

For his career, Jose Lima had base rates of 5.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, and 1.5 HR/9. From 1994-1999 (when he acquired his allure), his rates were 6.6 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, and 1.2 HR/9.

Now, technically, Lima’s HR rate keeps him from passing his own filter. In fact, in his pre-collapse period, he achieved a homer rate below 1.1 HR/9 only twice—he had a 1.08 HR/9 in 1997, and a 1.096 HR/9 in 1999. So that we may include the man himself, we’ll expand the definition of LIMA here to parameters of 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, and 1.1 HR/9.

We looked at all pitchers since the year 2000 who have had at least one LIMA-caliber season of at least 100 IP. There were 131 such pitchers. We then asked, How many LIMA-caliber seasons did these pitchers have for their careers (possibly extending before the year 2000)?

Here are the results, grouped by the number of LIMA-caliber seasons:

Fifty of our 131 pitchers (38%) exhibited LIMA-caliber skills for one season only. (Scanning just the As, the list comprises Terry Adams, Jeremy Affeldt, Wilson Alvarez, Rick Ankiel, and Bronson Arroyo. Dare we tally the draft dollars spent chasing this fivesome?)

Only 40% of our pitchers have passed the LIMA filter for three or more seasons. That’s a mere 52 pitchers, spread across nine seasons! Granted, some of the pitchers are still pitching today, and some of those can be expected to lift their LIMA counts. Still, it’s fair to say that fantasy fortunes rose and fell on whether you got in early on these 52 names. (Only one pitcher has a 100% rate of LIMA seasons in a career of four or more seasons. Hint: He pitches for Houston. And he has some work to do to run the streak to nine seasons.)

How about this: After these 131 pitchers put up their first LIMA-caliber season, what fraction of subsequent seasons were LIMA-caliber (and in at least 100 IP)?

A: So far, these pitchers have produced 481 subsequent seasons (of any length). Of those seasons, only 35% were LIMA-caliber in 100 IP. Nineteen pitchers were responsible for half of those seasons; collectively, they had a repeat rate of 73%. If you banked on one of the other 112 pitchers, though, your hit rate was just 23%.

If this be skill, I want nothing of it. A replay of LIMA skills is 1-in-3 overall, and 1-in-4 for the unestablished? Why bother? Admittedly, we’re using LIMA eligibility as a proxy for good results. But a homer rate over 1.1 HR/9, or a strikeout-to-walk rate below 2.0 K/BB, virtually ensures a troubled season.

These findings suggest that the LIMA Plan is vulnerable to a mutant. Far from possessing repeatable skills, most of these pitchers were merely in the right place at the right time—much like Jose Lima, when the LIMA Plan was looking for a name. That may be the real lesson of the LIMA Plan.

Still, the longevity of the LIMA Plan should count for something. And we haven’t done the hard work of showing that a superior strain exists. We have a notion that an answer may lie with the low-K, high-command pitchers whom we identified last week. But we welcome your suggestions.

Posted by John Burnson at 2:12am (9) Comments

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

David Aardsma | Seattle | RP
YTD: 8.0 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.40 ERA
True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.20 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 saves, 4.45 ERA
In the grand tradition of Don “Full Pack” Stanhouse and Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams, David Aardsma will need a nickname if he keeps closing. “BB-rdsma” doesn't quite cut it, but at least it's truth-in-advertising, as Aardsma has walked 98 men in 157 career innings. With Morrow returning this weekend, the window for Aardsma closing appears to be closing, in spite of Shawn Kelley's injury. However, Morrow's diabetes and injury concerns could easily net Aardsma another 5-10 saves this season. OK if you can stand the hit to your WHIP.

Rod Barajas | Toronto | C
YTD: .333/.370/.512
True Talent: .255/.309/.416
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .254, 0.0 SB
Barajas' season is a BABIP fluke—it's more than 100 points over his career mark, and that's despite his turning 34 in September. Barajas is a great example of the value of knowing the True Talent of a player. Sure, getting anything out of a catcher is useful, but if you have this guy in a league, it's time to trade him to someone who believes in “hot streaks” and “momentum.”

Dallas Braden | Oakland | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 2.50 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.06 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.06 ERA
Braden's ERA is artificially low due to his 3.6% HR/FB. However, he has the supporting stuff that may help him to out-pitch his xERA. For one thing, his flyball ways (36.9% career GB%) won't hurt him so much since the A's have a big ballpark and good defenders, especially in the outfield. For another thing, he puts the clamps on the running game (just three SB allowed in 180 career innings), which helps to keep the double plays in order.

Melky Cabrera | New York | OF
YTD: .328/.400/.537
True Talent: .279/.341/.403
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .279, 0.6 SB
Grab some bench, Brett! This past week's switch-hitting hero in New York is ... Melky! Melky's HR/FB is 36.4%, which is astonishing especially since he has put 56.1% of his hit balls on the ground. Not only are his balls “out of play” doing better than expected, but his BABIP is also high, at .340 (versus a career mark of .297). Don't expect him to surpass his True Talent by much.

Alberto Callaspo | Kansas City | 2B
YTD: .359/.417/.565
True Talent: .295/.354/.405
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .296, 0.2 SB
Callaspo has struck out just 5 times in 92 AB this year, and he has a .365 BABIP. Being a ground-ball hitter with a phenomenal 92% Ct% for his career, his hits come inside the park, not out of it, so his BA is heavily dependent on his BABIP... and that BABIP will come down. In fact, he could hit .300 the rest of the way and still not help a Roto team, as he doesn't homer or steal, and he could lose PT down the road due to his shaky defense.

Brett Cecil | Toronto | SP
YTD: 9.00 K/9, 0 BB, 1.50 ERA
True Talent: 7.8 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.01 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Young pitchers are inherently risky for present-season performance. But Toronto has been fantastic about developing and nurturing pitching talent of all ages in recent years, and an investment in Cecil is, in many ways, an investment in his teammates: Cito Gaston has turned around the Jays' offense (up from 4.00 R/G in 2007 to 4.75 R/G last year, and 6.30 R/G so far this year), and the defense remains splendid. Combine those with a bullpen that's very likely to leave runners stranded, and Cecil is a great long-term pick and a good 2009 pick-up.

Brendan Harris | Minnesota | SS/2B/3B
YTD: .308/.339/.404
True Talent: .273/.332/.406
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .270, 0.1 SB
The word from Ron Gardenhire is that Tolbert and Harris will platoon, now that Alexi Casilla is gone. But, see, Tolbert can't hit (though he might steal a base for you in an AL-only league). And Crede's back acts up frequently. And Punto is Punto. You get the idea... So Brendan Harris should get a lot of playing time. Full-time in 2007, he hit .286 with 12 HR. Nothing special here, but useful.

Kendry Morales | Los Angeles | 1B/OF
YTD: .266/.310/.500
True Talent: .272/.317/.437
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .274, 0.1 SB
We've seen over the years that it's hard for hitters to translate success in the Angels' minor-league parks into major-league success. Exhibit K: Kendry Morales, who has hit over .330 the past three years combined in Triple-A and slugged over .500. Still, we look for a little more slugging this season than his True Talent indicates, as nothing seems fluky about his current stats. Expect his decent run production to continue, as Vlad's return should improve the team's scoring overall.

National League by Michael Street

Doug Davis | Arizona | SP
YTD: 6.8 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.52 ERA
True Talent: 6.7 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.49 ERA
Next Week’s Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.54 ERA
Davis has tossed two shut-outs layered between two starts in which he gave up nine ER in 10.1 IP. That’s typical of Davis, an unspectacular inning-muncher. His walk rate may be improving; then again, he has allowed three or more walks in half his starts. As his True Talent shows, Davis is fairly marginal, except for slightly above-average strikeout numbers. If you need those K's, be prepared to occasionally get shelled.

Barry Zito | San Francisco | SP
YTD: 5.8 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.99 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.74 ERA
Next Week’s Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 4.78 ERA
San Francisco’s big contract bust has been good lately, surrendering just three ER over his last three starts (two of them shutouts) and putting up an 11:4 K/BB ratio. Since Zito is no longer striking out guys, those walks are key. His K/BB ratio so far is his best in four years, but that's only 1.9 K/BB, and True Talent can't help but see a correction coming. Zito looks better than he has in a while, but even granting him all the benefit of the doubt, that still makes him only a bit above average.

LaTroy Hawkins | Houston | RP
YTD: 8.5 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 2.84 ERA
True Talent: 6.4 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.78 ERA
Next Week’s Forecast: 1.0 Saves, 4.02 ERA
Hawkins has filled in for Jose Valverde with some of his best numbers in years. Typically, Hawk has been good everywhere in relief EXCEPT at the end of the game, wilting when pressed into the closer position—in 249 career save situations, he has closed the door only 79 times. We think that Hawk will hold his own until Valverde returns in mid-May, but the risk of regression is very real, so listen to offers if you own him.

Carlos Marmol | Chicago | RP
YTD: 9.7 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 4.85 ERA
True Talent: 10.5 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.69 ERA
Next Week’s Forecast: 0.4 Saves, 3.40 ERA
Everyone expected Marmol to take over for Kevin Gregg, but Marmol has faltered this year when called upon to close, whereas Gregg has nailed down four straight saves. Marmol’s control this season has clearly slipped, with uncharacteristic 19.7 BB% and 23.0 K%. But True Talent looks for Marmol to take the lead (Gregg has a True ERA of only 4.26), and as long as Lou Piniella is willing to swap roles when Marmol passes Gregg, you’ll want Marmol stashed away while he's cheap.

Pedro Feliz | Philadelphia | 3B
YTD: .314/.371/.442
True Talent: .265/.314/.428
Next Week’s Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .268, 0.0 SB
After coming to Philly last season, Feliz’s BB% shot up from 4.9% to 7.1%, and his K% continued dropping to 11.7% from its 21.3% 2003 peak. This year, those trends are continuing, as he has a 9.3 BB% and 10.3 K%. But his 2009 success stems even moreso from a .329 BABIP, well above his career .267 average. True Talent also tells you that he’s coming down to earth; note that he’s hitting .261/.292/.304 over his past six games.

Khalil Greene | St. Louis | SS
YTD: .217/.317/.348
True Talent: .243/.305/.411
Next Week’s Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .244, 0.2 SB
Greene’s Spring Training line of .406/.434/.536 got a lot of fantasy owners excited. And then he started the season batting .246/.358/.386, a performance more in line with his True Talent. A strained forearm on April 27 took him off the diamond (and many fantasy rosters). But an improved batting eye (0.9 BB/K) means that he could improve on that BA and OBP prediction, and possibly also boost his power numbers. Keep your expectations low, but there is upside here.

Emilio Bonifacio | Florida | 3B
YTD: .250/.297/.308
True Talent: .259/.310/.342
Next Week’s Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 R, 1 RBI, .254, 0.9 SB
Bonifacio started 2009 on Opening Day with an inside-the-park homer and three SB, and he had multi-hit games in six of his first seven games. Fantasy owners snatched him up—and when he hit .161/.223/.172 with two SB since then, owners dropped him just as quickly. The steals are tempting, but he doesn’t have the power for a corner spot, and until he develops patience (0.3 BB/K), he’s liable to kill your BA. Don’t look for a rebound anytime soon.

Jeremy Hermida | Florida | OF
YTD: .250/.395/.402
True Talent: .264/.357/.437
Next Week’s Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .259, 0.3 SB
The perennial prospect has suffered from injuries (40-plus games in ’06 and ’07) and impatience (0.35 BB/K in 2008). This year, he has been healthy, and an impressive 0.8 BB/K ratio has led to that gaudy OBP. However, since a 2-HR, 5-RBI performance on April 18, he has hit only .204/.368/.241, and so he’s back on the waiver wire. Pick him up if you have room—he’s going to get better, and he could even beat that True Talent projection if that batting eye holds.

True Talent and Next Week Forecast are taken from Heater Magazine.

Posted by THT Staff at 12:55am (0) Comments

Roster Doctor - 5/8/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

A standard roster for today...

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Rotisserie

Roster:

C - John Buck
1B - Adrian Gonzalez
2B - Kelly Johnson
3B - Mike Lowell
SS - Hanley Ramirez
OF - Carlos Quentin
OF - Jay Bruce
OF - Andre Ethier
Util - Garrett Atkins
BN - Kosuke Fukudome
BN - Milton Bradley
DL - Brian McCann

SP - Matt Garza
SP - Clayton Kershaw
SP - Derek Lowe
SP - Jon Lester
SP - Ricky Nolasco
RP - Matt Capps
RP - Mike González
RP - Kevin Gregg
RP - Todd Coffey
RP - LaTroy Hawkins

Right off the bat (literally) I noticed your strong hitting. You've got some boppers in Gonzalez, Quentin, and Bruce and some nice average guys in Hanley, Ethier, and Lowell to complement them. When McCann comes off the DL in the very near future, your lineup will only look more intimidating and hopefully his numbers follow the reputation.

Hanley is your only real source of steals, so you could use some help there in a trade. I would look to trade either Lowell or Atkins—Lowell especially because he might look enticing to some owners because of his hot start—and in return receive a speedy character. Your options are pretty much wide open as to who you get in return since he will be filling your utility position.

In the meantime I would drop Bradley for a speed guy like Emmanuel Burriss; he should pick up his production going forward and should offer some stolen bases. Burriss also makes for a nice backup to Hanley and Kelly with his second base and shortstop eligibility. (Another player I would consider adding is Juan Pierre in light of the Manny news.)

Speaking of Kelly Johnson, he and Atkins are the two hitters struggling for your team right now. Johnson is simply the victim of bad luck as I mentioned in my last article, due mostly to a .222 BABIP. He should pick up the slack and put up similar numbers to the solid ones of past seasons. Atkins is someone I am less fond of, although I do believe he will start playing better than he has so far this season. My expectations are about a .275-.280 average with about 15 home runs and a high-80s to low-90s RBI total. For now, I think you are stuck with that production unfortunately, but if he gets hot in the future, I would to include him as a piece in a trade, especially because there is a good chance he spends the second half of the season away from Coors.

Moving over to your pitching, it lacks an ace but does appear to have good depth. Garza, Kershaw, and Lowe are all solid pitchers who have performed well for you so far and should continue to do so. Lester and Nolasco have not done as well, Nolasco especially, but nevertheless I like both of them going forward. A simple check of their peripherals shows they are still striking out plenty of batters (Lester is currently striking out over a batter an innning!) and walking relatively few. They are both the victims of poor BABIP luck with inflated .363 and .381 BABIPs. I'll take a rotation of five solid starters over a staff consisting of an ace or two and three inconsistent starters, particularly in rotisserie a league.

You probably did not make a large investment in closers during your draft—Capps is your sole brand-name closer—but regardless you have managed to assemble a mass of relievers in position to get saves. Capps, Gonzalez, Gregg (barely), and Hawkins (for the next two to three weeks) will be doing closing duties for their teams. Coffey—the lone man out—is now droppable with the return of Travor Hoffman and I would take a stab at a potential closer like Jim Johnson, Tony Sipp, or Andrew Bailey to take his place.

Overall I feel your hitting is solid but needs to be improved by a smart addition or one of the trades I mentioned to become championship caliber. Your mix of starters is great—no need to alter that—and as long as you stay active on the waiver wire for closers as you already have, your pitchers will continue to impress. Good luck!

Posted by Paul Singman at 12:33am

Thursday, May 07, 2009

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects - 5/7/09

Send any and all minor league questions or comments to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I will get to as many of them as I can in an upcoming Q&A.

This week I got a lot of appreciated feedback, and I took some of it to heart. Keep the feedback coming. If you feel strongly about a player, share your thoughts. The Tim Beckham fan club was out in full force this week. Don't worry guys, if he keeps raking he'll keep moving.

1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009
Average Year Projection:
.298 / .395 / 31 HR / 30 2B / 3 3B / 106 RBI / 89 R / 89 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.338 / .445 / 41 HR / 35 2B / 4 3B / 124 RBI / 102 R / 103 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS

2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009
Average Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.31 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 202 SO / 187 H / 64 BB
Prime Year Projection:
224 IP / 2.53 ERA / 1.13 WHIP / 20 W / 7 L / 244 SO / 190 H / 63 BB
Notes:
Dominated an overmatched Pawtucket lineup two starts ago with just average control. Took care of Syracuse in his latest outing, which featured 10 strikeouts in six innings. Needless to say, Hanson has me feeling giddy.

3. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / Triple-A / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009
Average Year Projection:
.282 / .368 / 31 HR / 28 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 86 R / 80 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.306 / .397 / 42 HR / 31 2B / 2 3B / 129 RBI / 103 R / 91 BB / 113 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
I’m not thrilled with Cleveland calling up LaPorta at this time. It puts him in limbo. All signs point to LaPorta simply getting sent back down as soon as Travis Hafner comes off the DL. I was hoping for a permanent call up later this year. On the bright side, LaPorta crushed his first big league dinger. There will be plenty more to come.

4. David Price/ SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 182 SO / 189 H / 69 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 2.85 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 223 SO / 194 H / 58 BB
Notes:
Price’s latest performance stood out, but for all the wrong reasons. The control issues are real, and his poor start to the season could send him on a slippery slope. His mechanics look consistent. Are his Triple-A problems all in his head? I will be monitoring his progress carefully.

5. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2011
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.

6. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009
Average Year Projection:
.291 / .354 / 26 HR / 43 2B / 6 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 62 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.313 / .392 / 31 HR / 47 2B / 7 3B / 114 RBI / 101 R / 69 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 4 CS

7. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88
Average Year Projection:
.270 / .354 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 2 3B / 95 RBI / 83 R / 74 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.289 / .375 / 32 HR / 37 2B / 3 3B / 116 RBI / 96 R / 82 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS

8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 175 SO / 192 H / 67 BB
Prime Year Projection:
208 IP / 3.03 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 204 SO / 197 H / 59 BB

9. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / A+ / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2012
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.

10. Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City / A+ / 9/11/88 / ETA: 2011
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.

11. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / Double-A / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +3
Average Year Projection:
.293 / .377 / 22 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 92 RBI / 82 R / 79 BB / 114 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.309 / .402 / 27 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 104 RBI / 95 R / 88 BB / 105 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
My love for Chris Davis during his 2007 season paid off, as his true breakout into elite territory came in 2008. Another blue chip hitter is climbing up the boards, but Justin Smoak certainly didn’t come out of nowhere. How this guy fell as far as he did in the 2008 draft is anyone’s guess. He reminds me a lot of Mark Teixeira, but I’m still waiting on bigger signs of Smoak’s power potential. If his power upticks (he has the potential) his stock will skyrocket even further. The thing that really blows me away with Smoak is his patience and approach at the plate. He will be a good all-around major league hitter.

12. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / Double-A / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
He was too good for High-A ball, so his promotion to Double-A Mobile was warranted. Everyone will now be able to get a real sense for how good this kid really is, and he could be great. His first Double-A outing was subpar. Will he show up next time out? I don’t know, but I can’t wait. The kid has ace potential.

13. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / A+ / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2011
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
I want to see Posey promoted. Right now. I believe he will have no problem adjusting, but I have to know for sure. He projects to be an plus hitter, especially when comparing him to other catchers. I like to compare him to current Giants catcher Bengie Molina. Ultimately it may be Molina who is responsible for keeping Posey in the minor leagues.

14. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / A+ / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
Five tool prospect with the stats to back it up. If he brings his current production up to the Double-A level he will shoot up my list, but, like everyone below the Double-A level, I have to temper my expectations. Very good prospect, though. He has that “perennial all-star” feel about him.

15. Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3
Average Year Projection:
.274 / .358 / 22 HR / 37 2B / 1 3B / 91 RBI / 78 R / 74 BB / 135 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.287 / .380 / 28 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 103 RBI / 87 R / 80 BB / 121 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
I can’t go overboard with Anderson yet because his power just has not shown up yet. He is very projectable, which is why I like him. He has a big frame and a good swing. Right now, I liken him to Adam LaRoche at the dish. In other words, an above average player. He has the ability to be a great player, though, and he certainly has the ability to be better than LaRoche. I’m expecting a June call up in 2010, if everything goes well.

16. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86 / Movement: -1
2009 Thoughts:
He is a solid No. 3 outfielder, providing good stolen base and runs production.
Average Year Projection:
.284 / .358 / 11 HR / 39 2B / 7 3B / 63 RBI / 99 R / 70 BB / 106 SO / 27 SB / 9 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.292 / .376 / 14 HR / 41 2B / 9 3B / 74 RBI / 109 R / 80 BB / 99 SO / 34 SB / 9 CS
Notes:
He is a good lead-off prospect for a Colorado team that needs one. An exciting player. I am not a believer in his home run power, but the thin air of Coors Field will aid him. If you can live without the home run and RBI production, Fowler looks like a strong No. 2 outfielder.

17. Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco / A+ / 8/13/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
The Frank Thomas of the California League. At just 18 years old Villalona has everything you look for in a power hitting prospect. He sports a sweet, level, powerful swing. I’m not sure that he’s in love with the game of baseball, though. I would love to see more commitment out of him. It’s the only thing holding him back.

18. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88 / Movement: -1
Average Year Projection:
191 IP / 3.83 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 161 SO / 180 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
204 IP / 3.22 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 202 SO / 188 H / 55 BB
Notes:
I like his groundball rate, and having a good defense behind him will do wonders. There are concerns about his strikeout ability and makeup. I’m a cautious believer, as the concerns are legit and have knocked him down a bit on my list. As he grows I expect his rangy repertoire of pitches to garner him strong strikeout numbers. But if he falls flat on his face in his first couple of years in the big leagues, I don't know if he will recover. Detroit rushed him, and I’m concerned. Be a cautious investor when it comes to Porcello.

19. Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington / MLB / 5/23/86
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 175 SO / 189 H / 70 BB
Prime Year Projection:
210 IP / 3.16 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 217 SO / 194 H / 66 BB
Notes:
I love Zimmerman’s poise and makeup. His fastball has really come on since he was drafted in 2007, as he now sits comfortably in the mid-90s. He could surprise everyone, including me, and blow past my projected numbers. He has a bulldog mentality that any team would love at the top of their rotation. Ultimately, playing for Washington could hurt his numbers; although it is hard predict how good the team will be in five years. His first two major league starts came against Atlanta and the New York Mets, and he looked very impressive in both outings.

20. Carlos Triunfel / SS / Seattle / Double-A / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
I caught some criticism for aggressively putting an “injured shortstop that won’t stay at shortstop” very high up on my list. But that’s how much I love this kid. I wanted to give him his due. I’m sure he will slide down this list as the year progresses, but I am very high on this kid’s ability to be an elite fantasy shortstop in the major leagues. That’s right, I do think he will stay at shortstop. He won’t be anything more than average defensively at the position, but that’s of little concern to us. All we care about is his bat and his speed, and he lots of both.

21. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / A+ / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1
22. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / Double-A / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010
23. Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +2
24. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / Triple-A / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1
25. Kyle Blanks / 1B / San Diego / Triple-A / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1
26. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86
27. Derek Holland / SP / Texas / MLB / 10/9/86
28. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / A+ / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010
29. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88
30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / Double-A / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2011
31. Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7
32. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / Double-A / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7
33. Andrew Lambo / OF / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 8/11/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1
34. Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011
35. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / Double-A / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2011
36. Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida / MLB / 4/4/87 / Movement: -5
37. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88 / Movement: -4
38. Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1
39. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / A+ / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
40. Michael Bowden / SP / Boston / Triple-A / 9/9/86 / ETA: 2010
41. Austin Jackson / OF / NY Yankees / Triple-A / 2/1/87 / ETA: 2010
42. Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / Double-A / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010
43. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +5
44. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88 / Movement: -1
45. Aaron Hicks / OF / Minnesota / EST / 10/2/89 / ETA: 2012
46. Daryl Jones / OF / St. Louis / Double-A / 6/25/87 / ETA: 2011
47. Jake Arrieta / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 3/6/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3
48. Aaron Cunningham / OF / Oakland / Triple-A / 4/24/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1
49. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / Triple-A / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010
50. Fernando Martinez / OF / NY Mets / Triple-A / 10/10/88 / ETA: 2010
51. Ethan Martin / SP / LA Dodgers / A / 6/6/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4
52. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +6
53. Michael Inoa / SP / Oakland / EST / 9/24/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -2
54. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +6
55. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City / A / 10/24/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3
56. Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta / MLB / 9/4/86 / Movement: -3
57. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1
58. Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona / Double-A / 5/6/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +4
59. Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore / Double-A / 12/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5
60. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / Triple-A / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3
61. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / A+ / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
62. Jordan Walden / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 11/16/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +2
63. Jeremy Jeffress / SP / Milwaukee / Double-A / 9/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
64. Wilfredo Boscan / SP / Texas / A / 10/26/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -1
65. Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010
66. Jairo Heredia / SP / NY Yankees / EST / 10/8/89 / ETA: 2011
67. Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee / A+ / 8/31/88 / ETA: 2011
68. Carlos Carrasco / SP / Philadelphia / Triple-A / 3/21/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +4
69. Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay / Triple-A / 9/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1
70. Daniel Bard / RP / Boston / Triple-A / 6/25/85 / ETA: 2010
71. Casey Kelly / SP / Boston / A / 10/4/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: +3
72. Lance Lynn / SP / St. Louis / Double-A / 5/12/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +11
73. Wilmer Flores / SS / NY Mets / A / 8/6/91 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -4
74. Max Ramirez / C / Texas / Triple-A / 10/11/84 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3
75. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / Triple-A / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009
76. Jose Tabata / OF / Pittsburgh / Double-A / 8/12/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
77. Ben Revere / OF / Minnesota / A+ / 5/3/88 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -1
78. Jason Knapp / SP / Philadelphia / A / 8/31/90 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1
79. Zeke Spruill / SP / Atlanta / A / 9/11/89 / ETA: 2013 / Movement: -1
80. Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels / Double-A / 5/22/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7
81. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati / A+ / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +7
82. Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle / A+ / 1/18/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: -3
83. Matt Dominguez / 3B / Florida / A+ / 8/28/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3
84. James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers / MLB / 10/19/84 / Movement: -3
85. Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta / Triple-A / 10/7/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: +7
86. Adrian Cardenas / 2B/SS / Oakland / Triple-A / 10/10/87 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -4
87. Bud Norris / SP / Houston / Triple-A / 3/2/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -3
88. Brandon Crawford / SS / San Francisco / A+ / 1/21/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +3
89. Dominic Brown / OF / Philadelphia / A+ / 9/3/87 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +5
90. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay / A / 1/27/90 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +10
91. David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore / Triple-A / 5/13/85 / ETA: 2010 / Movement: -1
92. Josh Vitters / 3B / Chicago Cubs / A / 8/27/89 / ETA: 2012 / Movement: +4
93. Dayan Viciedo / 3B/OF / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 3/10/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -8
94. Aaron Poreda / SP / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 10/1/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -5
95. Jason Castro / C / Houston / A+ / 6/18/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -9
96. Phillippe Aumont / RP / Seattle / A+ / 1/7/89 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -3
97. Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland / Triple-A / 9/19/85 / ETA: 2009 / Movement: -2
98. Josh Lindblom / SP / LA Dodgers / Double-A / 6/15/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: +1
99. Sean West / SP / Florida / Double-A / 6/15/86 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: -2
100. Vance Worley / SP / Philadelphia / Double-A / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2011 / Movement: New

Other players that I'm watching closely:
J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto / Triple-A / 1/5/86 / ETA: 2011
Gorkys Hernandez
Kyle Skipworth
Dellin Betances
Todd Frazier
Jonathon Niese
Lou Marson
Trevor Harden
Cody Johnson
Daniel Duffy
John Jaso
D.J. Mitchell
Reese Havens
Wilson Ramos
Ross Seaton
Mike Carp
Dexter Carter
Brad Holt
Mauricio Robles
Matt Maloney
Brandon Snyder
Brett Cecil
Yohermyn Chavez
Chris Carter
Kevin Mulvey
Jason Donald
David Huff
Michael Taylor
Reid Brignac
Brett Lorin
Josh Reddick
Kelvin De La Cruz
Peter Bourjos
Chris Coghlan

Posted by Matt Hagen at 10:25pm (2) Comments

Paying for saves redux one

In the pre-season, I wrote an article questioning the wisdom of the "don't pay for saves" mantra. Of course, rather than merely questioning, we'd like to come up with some answers. So I've started collecting data from this season on closers that we can use to test the don't pay for saves theory as the season goes along. Below is some data on closers: their names, their average auction values for a 5x5 mixed league (from CBS Sportsline) and their saves for this year as of Wednesday morning.

Using the eyeball method, I've split the closers up into several categories, based on their auction values. The first group of five are the "elite" closers. These are the ones you're not supposed to pay for, perhaps. The second group of five are top closers. I put all closers that had values between $15 and $5 in the third group. The fourth group are the "value" closers and the fifth group is the "penny ante" group. I just included the top five penny ante closers, but the results are robust to including all the closers that were auctioned for $1. For each group, I've listed the average price, the average number of saves and the standard deviation of the saves.

Elite Closers

Francisco Rodriguez	$27	7
Jonathan Papelbon	$27	7
Mariano Rivera	$25	5
Joe Nathan	$25	4
Brad Lidge	$24	3

average cost = $25.375, average saves = 5.2, standard deviation = 1.79

Top closers:

Bobby Jenks	$20	6
Joakim Soria	$19	6
Kerry Wood	$19	5
B.J. Ryan	$16	2
Jose Valverde	$15	2

avg $ = $17.8, avg saves = 4.6 , stdev = 1.67

Brian Fuentes	$14	7
Jonathan Broxton	$14	8
Francisco Cordero	$13	7
Mike Gonzalez	$10	4
Trevor Hoffman	$10	4
Brad Ziegler	$9	4
Joey Devine	$9	0
Matt Capps	$9	5
Brian Wilson	$9	6
Chad Qualls	$8	6
Brandon Morrow	$8	5
Kevin Gregg	$8	4
Matt Lindstrom	$8	5
Huston Street	$6	3

avg = $9.64, avg saves = 4.86, stdev = 1.99

$5 and under

Jason Motte	$5	0
Carlos Marmol	$5	2
Heath Bell	$4	8
Frank Francisco	$4	8
George Sherrill	$3	4
Joel Hanrahan	$3	2
Troy Percival	$2	4
Manny Corpas	$2	1

avg = $3.5, avg saves = 3.625, stdev = 3.02

Penny Ante

Chris Ray	$1	0
Jose Arredondo	$1	0
Ryan Franklin	$1	7
Grant Balfour	$1	1
Brandon Lyon	$1	0

avg = $1, avg saves = 1.6, stdev = 3.05

Some extremely preliminary conclusions: The elite group yielded the highest average number of saves, though you paid a pretty penny for just a fraction extra, so far. The middle group really benefits from having Broxton, Fuentes and Cordero. That group is going to suffer from Devine's injury but is hedged by having Ziegler. The bottom groups have a few all-stars (Bell, Francisco and Franklin), but also more than few duds too (Motte, Ray, Marmol). The bottom three groups have the highest standard deviations. For instance, the middle group has a fairly good average for the price, but is slightly riskier than the top two groups. The bottom groups are much riskier.

It is worth pointing out again that the dollar values aren't these players' only costs. It is tempting to think that for $5 you could roster all five of the penny ante guys, getting more saves for much cheaper than, say, Papelbon's $27. Of course, you'd have to have started all of these players (if you couldn't predict their closing opportunities) or at the very least have them on a very deep bench (if you could perfectly predict their closing opportunities).

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:10am (4) Comments

Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Keys to winning daily fantasy baseball contests

What follows are some of the keys to winning daily fantasy baseball contests, such as those offered at Draftbug, Snapdraft, and Fantasysportslive.

Look for bargains — This is kind of obvious, but the salary cap limitations in these contests mean that you’re not usually going to be able to use an all-star type lineup. You’re going to need to search out some undervalued players and use them. One common source of these is players who will have an expanded role today due to an injury to another player. However, there are players who provide good value for more extended periods of time. Sometimes this is because player prices aren’t updated based upon superior performance. Other times, these values are available because the player’s value in a particular scoring format surpasses their reputation, so nobody notices that they’re underpriced.

Check the news — Check the news to make sure that you’re not using anybody in your lineup who won’t be playing today. Lineups in these contests typically lock in after starting lineups for the early games are announced, so ideally you should make sure that your players are actually in the lineup. This also means that if you are going to be able to check lineups prior to your roster locking, then players with early games are going to be worth a few percentage points more to you on average than those with later games.

Understand the rules — This goes for any format of fantasy baseball—you should always know the rules thoroughly. In particularly, the scoring systems vary in different daily contest formats, and you should make sure you’re selecting players who fare well in the scoring system your contest uses. A player like Jason Giambi is a pretty valuable if your system uses walks, but not so much otherwise. Also make sure that you know how the rules treat special cases like doubleheaders and rainouts.

Larger contests require more risks — In a two-person contest, you should just go with the best possible lineup. In a larger contest (say 100 people), where the prize payouts are typically very top-heavy, you’re going to need to take some chances to have a shot at the top spot. Play for first place, not 10th. In the larger contests, you want to increase variance in your scoring. One way to do this is to pick players whose performance is likely to show a high correlation. For example, pick the starting pitcher and closer on one team. Another way is to increase variance is to take players whose scores tend to be more "feast or famine," such as home run hitters who strike out a lot. You also should be a little more willing to pick a clearly superior player who has a small to moderate chance of being rained out, if you’re playing in a larger contest. But in a heads-up contest, just play it safe and make sure that all your players will be playing today.

Take opponents into account — When you evaluate players for your team, consider who their opponent is today. For pitchers, how strong is the opposing lineup? How strong is the opposing starting pitcher? For hitters, how strong are the opposing starting pitcher and bullpen? I’ve built a fairly complex statistical model to do this, and I suspect that other top players have as well.

Take park factors into account — Where is the game being played? Ideally you want pitchers to be in favorable pitchers’ parks and hitters in favorable hitters’ parks, although there are plenty of cases when other factors may override this. This too, is part of my statistical model. However, like evaluating opponent quality, you can do it somewhat effectively simply by eyeballing the schedule and pitching match-ups each day before you make your picks.

Posted by Alex Zelvin at 1:23am (3) Comments

Roster Doctor - 5/5/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Today, I'm picking back up my important-looking lab coat, plastic stethoscope, and monocle (not at all doctor-related, but it makes me look both authoritative and awesome) to play Roster Doctor.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Roto
Roster:

C - John Baker
1B - Carlos Pena
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Aubrey Huff
SS - Jhonny Peralta
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Shane Victorino
UT - Mark Teixeira
BN - Nelson Cruz
BN - Derrek Lee

SP - Dan Haren
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Erik Bedard
SP - John Danks
SP - Jair Jurrjens
SP - Scott Richmond
RP - Heath Bell
RP - Scott Downs
RP - Jim Johnson

DL - Kelvim Escobar

The first thing I notice is that you have a couple of excellent bench hitters and a few weak spots in the starting lineup. Cruz should be starting on your team, and right away I'd bench either Pena, slide Teixeira over to first, and put Cruz into the UT spot, or simply bench Victorino. After that, I'd start shopping an outfielder or Pena. If you can get a guy with some speed in return, I probably like Victorino least, but who I trade would depend upon the return. Pena would probably provide the most value in a trade right now.

I think SS is your weakest offensive spot, and I might make a play for Michael Young. I mentioned before the season how he was often my SS target if I missed out on Reyes, Hanley, or Rollins, and he is tearing it up this year. He is hitting the ball a long way, and his power thus far is not looking fluky. If his owner thinks it is, he might be looking to sell high. We're still looking at a small sample size, and I'll talk more about him at a later date, but he makes a good target. A Victorino(or Pena)/Peralta for Young/Pitcher deal would probably benefit you.

Baker really doesn't cut it at catcher, though having an elite catcher in this format isn't necessary either. If Matt Wieters is on the wire, I would try to make bench room for him until he gets called up. In the mean time, I'd drop Baker for someone like Mike Napoli (probably not available), Kenji Johjima (most likely available), or a guy like Yadier Molina.

Lee's not having a great year so far, but that's at least partially bad luck and he doesn't belong on your bench. Neither does Pena, though he and Lee are your two bench hitters now (unless you trade an OF or bench Victorino). I'd begin seeing what Pena could fetch in a trade, and once Lee puts together a good couple weeks, I'd try to trade him as well. They'd have more value to you upgrading another spot (third base! third base!) than they would on the bench.

As to your pitching, Haren is having a great year—just as CAPS thought he would. This owner expressed concern over Beckett, but I wouldn't be too concerned. He's walking too many batters, but we're looking at a small sample and he's been excellent over the past few years. His ERA is mostly bad luck (absurd .398 BABIP and 59 percent LOB%), so I'd keep trotting him out there.

Bedard is pitching excellently, rewarding you handsomely for your investment, but he remains an injury concern. Depending on your penchant for risk, I might consider trading him. Ricky Nolasco is probably the best buy-low pitcher in all of baseball right now, so trading Bedard for Nolasco and a sizeable upgrade elsewhere would be a profitable move.

Danks is very solid, and Richmond has been pitching well so far. His MLEs have never been this good, though, so I might see what he would fetch on the trade market. Bell is great—hang onto him—and Downs is terrific if he can hold onto the job once Ryan returns. Johnson was likely a recent pickup, and I think it's a good one. He's been Baltimore's best reliever (ERA wise) of the three in contention for the closer role, and his gmLI is much higher than Ray's. His skills haven't been great in the past, but he's fine to hang onto over the next week to see if he lands the closer's job. If he does, look to trade for any other established closer.

Overall, a good team, but there is a good deal of waste and also some risk on the pitching side. I'd spread your talent out some more by making some trades, trying to make two-for-one deals where you get to upgrade a spot, particularly shortstop, third base, catcher, or a pitcher spot.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:00am (7) Comments

Tuesday, May 05, 2009

What you need to know about player raters

Two weeks ago, we covered the innings pace projection as something that fantasy league providers like Yahoo, CBS Sports, and ESPN give to customers, often with the result of creating a psychological imperative towards a goal and shaping the way that those in leagues manage their pitching staffs.

Another tool that fantasy league providers give out is a “player rater”—a mathematical algorithm that takes accumulated statistics to date and spits out how players measure up to each other in overall fantasy value for the current season.

The psychological impact of seeing how one player compares to the next should not be underestimated. Raise your hand if you’ve ever offered or considered a trade in consult with your league provider’s player rater.

We believe there are a few basic things that everybody needs to know about player raters:

First, not all player raters are the same.

For example, Yahoo’s player rater is a pretty dominant feature in its service. You can’t make a trade without seeing it. And if you are using it, you’ll see the top current five batters so far in the 2009 season listed this way:

1. Albert Pujols
2. Ian Kinsler
3. Evan Longoria
4. Raul Ibanez
5. Adam Jones (yes, almost unbelievably, he’s No. 5)

You’ll have to search a bit harder for CBS Sports’ player rater. But once you find it, you’ll see a different order:

1. Ian Kinsler
2. Albert Pujols
3. Carl Crawford
4. Raul Ibanez
5. Kevin Youkilis

Part of the reason for the difference is that the gurus behind CBS Sports, for whatever reason, favor the Head-to-Head points scoring format, and in the past few seasons, has juggled its point calculation formula on “standard leagues.” They’ve constructed their player rater to place more weight on metrics like walks and negative value on metrics like losses and blown saves.

Second, highly scarce statistics like stolen bases and saves tend to make a big impact on player raters.

Obviously, categorical scarcity should play a role in determining value, but at the start of a season, things like a single save or stolen base can be a little deceiving. Take these two players and figure out who is rated as more valuable:

Felix Hernandez: 34 innings, 4 wins, 36 strikeouts, 2.38 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 0 saves
Jason Frasor: 10.1 innings, 4 wins, 6 strikeouts, 0.0 ERA, 0.48 WHIP, 1 saves

For those who guessed Frasor, congratulations.

It almost goes without saying that player raters measure retrospective value much better than prospective value. A pitcher with a poor strikeout rate may luck his way into a few wins and a good position on the player rater. That’s not to say that luck will continue.

Consider Ramon Ramirez, reliever for the Boston Red Sox, who currently has 2 wins and a 0.0 ERA despite having a strikeout rate of 4.8 per 9 innings pitched and a FIP (a measure of adjusted ERA based on peripherals and minus defense) of 3.1.

Right now, Yahoo’s player rater judges Ramon Ramirez to be the 15th most valuable pitcher in baseball, ahead of Josh Johnson, among others. Strip away the vulture wins and adjust the ERA and Mr. Ramirez wouldn’t crack the top 200 pitchers.

On the other hand, don’t totally discount the value of a good middle reliever with solid ratios. Year after year, those in fantasy baseball leagues express some disbelief that middle relievers are indeed valuable in leagues that don’t count holds. But in this case, statistics don’t lie.

Yes, in 2008, Grant Balfour computed as a Top 100 fantasy player, ahead of Michael Young, Corey Hart, and Scott Kazmir. Considering the season that Balfour is having now, it may be tough to figure out those rock-solid middle relievers, but they appear high up on player raters for a good reason: A sub-2.0 ERA in 80 innings is indeed quite valuable. That's a topic for another day, however.

Finally, the longer the season goes on, as sample sizes become larger and larger, player raters gain more credence, but also less worth.

At the start of the season, we all want players who are going to contribute to overall categorical success. As the season moves on, our position in some categories becomes fixed while the opportunity to move ahead in other categories offers promise. Making a player move becomes more dependent on the context of a particular league's standings.

If there's a conclusion to be drawn from all of this, it's that going for the player who is rated as having the highest overall value is not always the smartest move.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 3:28am (5) Comments

Fingers pointed

To kick off part two of this series, we are gong to start with a mini lesson in small sample sizes. The stats in the first article were through last Tuesday's games and the stats in this part of today's article will be through Saturday's. That's four games more in the second set.

Below is a table showing the batting averages and BABIPs of all the players named in the first article.

                      Average                     BABIP
Player           Tues.  Sat.   [Diff]        Tues.  Sat.   [Diff]
Albert Pujols     0.320  0.356  0.036        0.279  0.314  0.035
Torii Hunter      0.319  0.314  0.005        0.300  0.292  0.008
Andre Ethier      0.312  0.308  0.004        0.317  0.329  0.012
Adam Dunn         0.328  0.299  0.029        0.333  0.320  0.013
Nelson Cruz       0.278  0.262  0.016        0.280  0.276  0.004

David Wright      0.282  0.284  0.002        0.404  0.400  0.004
Carl Crawford     0.274  0.290  0.016        0.354  0.367  0.013
Kevin Kouzmanoff  0.269  0.237  0.032        0.339  0.309  0.030
Jhonny Peralta    0.225  0.209  0.016        0.327  0.298  0.029
Russell Martin    0.225  0.224  0.001        0.308  0.297  0.011

J.J. Hardy        0.174  0.156  0.018        0.188  0.164  0.024

           Average Difference = 0.016    Average Difference = 0.017

The thing to focus on is the average difference in change in batting average and BABIP over the four days. Both are about .015 or in layman's terms, 15 points. Considering the small period of time over which this change happened, that is surprisingly large. Well, only surprising to those who beforehand did not have a good concept of how much rate stats fluctuate in the early going.

In case you are worried that the average difference in batting average and BABIP of these eleven batters does not reflect all batters, for those interested, the average change in batting average from Tuesday to Saturday for every batter was 0.017 and for BABIP it was .015. Close enough.

Despite the volatility of these rate stats, there is still validity in a higher or lower than expected batting average, or higher or lower BABIP. In today's article I will detail several players whose BABIPs lead me to believe that soon enough they should start playing closer to what preseason expectations were.

A note before we begin: Players performing better than expected should not start playing worse than expected in the future; they should be expected to play at the level we expect them to play at. It sounds obvious enough when I say it like that, but it remains a concept many fail to grasp. For example, let's say we expected Nick Swisher to hit .250 this year. Because he is batting over .300 now does not mean that the baseball gods are going to exact retribution on him and make him hit below .250 for the remainder of the season so he finishes with a .250 average.

Karma does not exist in baseball in terms of luck. A streak of good luck does not necessarily follow a streak of bad luck. For another (and probably clearer) example of this, read Dave Cameron's explanation over at USS Mariner.

With that fallacy out of the way, here is the first set of players:

Low production, lower BABIP (greater chance level of production increases)

Note: Stats from here to the end of the article are through Sunday's games

1) Lance Berkman — Owners of Berkman this year have to be disappointed with his current .172 batting average. So far he has gotten unlucky with balls in play as his BABIP sits at .153, so unless something is physically wrong with Berkman, he should start performing like himself sooner rather than later.

2) Jimmy Rollins — Similar to Berkman, Rollins is someone who has just been down on his luck so far this year with a .221 BABIP. Nothing you can do but wait.

3) Cody Ross — Ross is a player you know I like this year, and what I am about to say will only make you like him more. Like Berkman and Rollins, Ross has been unlucky; he is currently sporting a .254 BABIP. But unlike the other two, (whose Line Drive rates (LD%) are both 14 percent) Ross' LD percentage is at league-average 19 percent.

This means that while Rollins' and Berkman's lack of luck on balls in play is somewhat deserved because of their low LD rates, (and we only expect them to do better because we expect their LD percentages to return to their career norms) Ross still has a low BABIP despite hitting a normal amount of line drives. Therefore there is even a greater chance that Ross rebounds.

Instead of repeating the same explanation for more players, I am going to list a few more batters who fit the same mold as Ross, meaning they are especially likely to rebound. One thing to kind in mind, however, is that LD%—like other rate stats—is volatile right now, so any high LD percentage today could become low in less than a week. Keep an eye out for dramatic shifts.

Player                   OPS       BABIP       LD%
Jason Kendall           0.510      0.206       23
Kelly Johnson           0.724      0.224       17
Chris Young             0.594      0.237       20
Mike Aviles             0.539      0.262       24
Randy Winn              0.673      0.262       22
Grady Sizemore          0.804      0.268       21
Emmanuel Burriss        0.544      0.271       25

A wide range of players in this list, all of whom I expect to pick up the pace in the near future.

Now it is time to talk about the overachievers:

High production, high BABIP (greater chance level of production is reduced)

The hitters that fall into this category tend to be obvious (of course Youkilis won't bat over .400 the whole season) and over-discussed, so I scoured the player universe for less obvious and lesser-discussed players.

1) Christian Guzman — Guzman's sole fantasy value this year has come from his .373 batting average, the result of a .442 BABIP. The most impressive part: He's doing it all with a 10 percent LD rate. Eventually something's gotta give—either the BABIP will fall or that line drive rate will catch up. Most likely they both will make the shift towards each other, resulting in a lowered batting average for Guzman.

2) Jordan Schafer — This Braves outfielder has caught the eye of some in deep mixed and NL-only leagues, and I'll warn those people to be careful. Schafer is hanging onto a .260 average, which is precariously supported by a .400 BABIP. He is not going to hit leadoff again for a while, so it may be time to cut or bench the young outfielder.

After those two, I would have to resort to naming obvious players like Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera, so I will end this list here.

As a final disclaimer, I know I used line drive percentage many times in this article as a predictor of BABIP. While LD percentage is a significant determiner of BABIP, we know from the work of Bendix and Dutton that many other factors are in play. For my purposes, however, a simple check of the line drive percentage sufficed.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:58am

Monday, May 04, 2009

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Picking up the hyped prospect

Saturday saw one of the most anticipated call-ups of the 2009 season. The Cleveland Indians recalled one of the games top right-handed power prospects, OF Matt LaPorta. And promptly sat him on the bench so lefty hitting Dave Dellucci could DH against right-hander Zach Miner.

A week and a half earlier, the Los Angeles Angels saw their top power threat, OF Vladimir Guerrero, go on the disabled list with a torn pectoral muscle. With the team’s top power prospect Brandon Wood ripping up Triple-A, many in the baseball and fantasy industry saw his recall inevitably leading to the full-time at-bats we richly believed he deserved. Instead, manager Mike Scioscia batted the likes of Macier Izturis and Robb Quinlan in the three-hole and/or at DH and has used Wood in just three games over that period.

Other than the excitement of rostering the next hyped rookie, playing time enigmas like Wood and LaPorta mean close to nothing to the typical mixed league player. With an abundance of free agent hitters in the player pool, there is nothing to compel the mixed leaguer to add a player whose professional production consists entirely of rosy projections rather than one whose production has been demonstrated at the major league level.

In single league formats, though, rostering the next hyped rookie is imperative. With a player pool consisting of little used back-up catchers, fifth outfielders and obligatory back-ups in the middle infield, there exists only the potential of rosy projections. Even when those projections prove to be more thorn than rose, fantasy players in AL- and NL-only leagues still get more production than otherwise was freely available.

Addtionally, the AL/NL-only player cannot allow a potential full-time player to go to a competitor's team because the free agent pool already reflects the number of these players at any one time: zero. Very rarely are there more than a team or two in an AL/NL Only league who doesn't have a dead spot on their active roster. A typical mixed league free agent pool is filled with multiple starting players at each available positions, and every team has everyday players on their active rosters

Because the opportunity cost for hyped rookies is so low in AL- and NL-only leagues (losing nothing relative to the freely available players nor by cutting productive active players), getting excited about the chance to add a Brandon Wood or Matt LaPorta becomes an event in fantasy baseball. The question that remains unanswered at this point is why an industry currently dominated by mixed league formats generates any excitement at all about a prospect.

Others call-ups to watch who can still help AL- and NL-Only leaguers without a marquee role:

3B Mat Gamel, Milwaukee Brewers: The lefty masher is toying with Triple-A the way Matt LaPorta did. The Brewers currently play Craig Counsell at 3B against left-handed starters. Gamels’ bat would seem to be quite an improvement over that. Left sides of platoons make for quality options in single format leagues.

RP Daniel Bard, Boston Red Sox: The converted starter does nothing but strike out hitters or keep the ball on the ground (23 strikeouts in 13.2 innings with a 2.20 GO/FO ratio at Triple-A). He has no chance at closing in Boston but has the type of arm that makes LIMA adherents drool. Mixed leaguers need not apply.

OF Will Venable, San Diego Padres: The Padres have outfield at-bats for the taking. First baseman Kyle Blanks would be a no-brainer NL-only grab if the Padres played him in the outfield. That doesn’t seem likely as he only plays there before Triple-A games and not during them. Venable, however, is the starting center fielder and could help NL-only teams if recalled.

OF Justin Maxwell, Washington Nationals: In a week long stint with the Nats, Maxwell stole three bases to remind fantasy leaguers of the 27 home run, 35 steal season he had between Low- and High-A in 2007. There doesn’t appear to be anywhere for Maxwell to play with Lastings Milledge awaiting the end of his Triple-A banishment and Elijah Dukes currently in center field for the Nats. This would prevent any mixed leaguer from adding him, but NL-only ones can benefit from 10 at-bats per week if they come with a steal and a home run every other week.

Last Week Follow-Up: Kansas City Royals middle reliever Jamey Wright pitched in the ninth inning of a 9-1 loss and the eighth inning of a couple games but did not pitch in the ninth of any of the four games the Royals won while closer Joakim Soria was recovering. Juan Cruz received the only save opportunity and converted it successfully.

Posted by Eric Hinz at 2:23am

Closer carousel

This past week was surely an active one for owners scrounging for saves, with changes coming in five bullpens. Manny Corpas was overtaken by Huston Street in Colorado, Jose Valverde and Brandon Morrow were placed on the disabled list, Trevor Hoffman returned from the DL, and Joel Hanrahan was removed in Washington.

While most of the replacements were obvious, the situation in Washington is still unsettled. We've yet to see a save opportunity come, so we're still mostly just speculating who will be the favorite for the role. Manager Manny Acta said that he'll go with a committee of Julian Tavarez, Kip Wells, and Joe Beimel (once he comes off the DL, probably on Wednesday), but one of those guys will likely get the majority of the saves. Today, I'd like to speculate a bit on who it will be.

Leverage Index

To do this, I'd like to reintroduce an old friend: Leverage Index (gmLI). I first talked about its uses for fantasy owners in this article last year. If you haven't read it, I highly recommend it. For those too lazy too, here's a quick excerpt:

What I believe this will tell us is how much a manager trusts a particular reliever in important situations. This could be a conscious thing the manager is doing or an unconscious one; either way, it can give us valuable insights into how he views the various members of his bullpen...

Keep in mind that this is not absolute. Just because a player is used in more critical situations doesn't mean he is automatically going to be the favorite for saves. We need to immerse ourselves in as much information as possible and try to make out what's really going on. Remember that this is simply one such piece of information, albeit a potentially important one.

Let's take a look at how gmLI would have predicted a couple of the other changes that occurred this week:

Seattle Mariners Closer

David Aardsma - 2.02
Shawn Andrew Kelley - 1.88
Chris Jakubauskas - 1.49
Miguel Batista - 1.34
Roy Corcoran - 1.27
Mark Lowe - 0.62
Sean White - 0.52

With Morrow hitting the DL, everyone pretty much knew that David Aardsma was next in line. gmLI nailed this one. Note for AL-only leaguers: Shawn Andrew Kelley is having a great year with terrific peripherals. He has a pretty good minor league track record as well, so he might be a nice ratio helper. Definitely worth a flier in deep leagues.

Houston Astros closer

Tim Byrdak - 1.51
LaTroy Hawkins - 1.43
Chris Sampson - 1.12
Geoff Geary - 1.11
Doug Brocail - 0.99
Felipe Paulino - 0.99
Wesley Wright - 0.46
Russ Ortiz - 0.36
Jeff Fulchino - 0.38

As we know, with Valverde on the DL, LaTroy Hawkins will be closing games in Houston. He was second in Leverage Index to Tim Byrdak, whose number may be inflated as a lefty or who may have been passed over because he is a lefty. Doug Brocail was drafted in many leagues as Valverde's backup, but he's given up a lot of runs and clearly isn't trusted as much as he was last year. Manager Cecil Cooper said that Chris Sampson (third in gmLI) and Brocail (fifth but probably with some residual trust) might also see some occasional saves.

Overall, gmLI was pretty solid.

Washington Nationals closer

Now for the Nats.

Mike Hinckley - 1.42
Julian Tavarez - 1.28
Kip Wells - 1.25
Garrett Mock - 1.23
Joe Beimel - 1.16
Saul Rivera - 1.09

What we know so far is that Tavarez, Wells, and Beimel are the three candidates. Hinckley comes in No. 1 in gmLI, but as a lefty, perhaps he can be discounted.

Mock comes in above Beimel, but his number is influenced by early season trust. If you remember a couple of weeks ago, when Hanrahan's job was first in jeopardy, he and Beimel were the two candidates discussed. He's since been removed from contention.

Logan Kensing is the only other reliever on the 25-man roster, but he was recently acquired (and thus doesn't have a gmLI yet) and his name hasn't been discussed as a potential closer.

So that leaves us with an order of Tavarez, Wells, and Beimel (pre-injury number, naturally). Does that mean Tavarez is the best bet? Well, he and Wells are very close, yet Beimel was the only one being talked about two weeks ago. Overall, this is still a very murky situation.

So what else do we know? Wells has a 1.42 ERA, but his skills are the worst with an xFIP of 5.79 and a 2008 figure of 6.46. Even if he gets the first few save opportunities and wins the job, I just can't see him keeping it for very long. It's hard to imagine him posting an ERA under 5.00, and that just won't fly.

Tavarez has solid skills but a 4.50 ERA. He's an extreme ground ball pitcher and has done well enough when restricted to a relief role (see: 2004, 2005, 2008). His 2004 and 2006 (a few starts mixed in) were pretty bad, however. Still, he posted an 8.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, and 53 percent GB% last year and is off to an even better start in 2009.

Beimel had a 1.23 ERA before his injury and hasn't posted an ERA north of 4.00 since 2004 (with two years under 3.00). His xFIP's have all been in the mid-to-high 4.00s, but there is a chance that he can control his HR/FB. It's just 7.1 percent for his career (league average is 11 percent-ish), and he's allowed just one homer since 2006 (123.2 IP).

So that leaves us with two legitimate candidates: Tavarez and Beimel. It's close, but I'm putting my money on Tavarez. There is one big warning flag with Beimel that leads me to believe he just couldn't last long as closer. He is awful against right-handed batters. Almost every year he walks more batters than he strikes out against RHB. That's just not going to cut it for a closer.

If he comes back healthy (or, rather, appears healthy to Manny Acta), I imagine he'll get the first couple save chances. It's fine to pick him up and then try to deal him, but long-term, Tavarez is the only one of the three who I think has any chance of lasting.

Please caution, however: don't sleep on Hanrahan. He's mostly just been unlucky and is by far the best option of the bunch.

One final note: don't discount the Nationals' save situation because they're a poor team. Poor teams close plenty of games.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:13am (1) Comments

Roster Doctor 05/04/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Let's see what we have for today.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 10
Categories: 5x5
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: Keeper League
Roster:

C: Chris Iannetta
1B: Miguel Cabrera
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Jimmy Rollins
3B: Chipper Jones
OF: Josh Hamilton
OF: Ryan Ludwick
OF: Adam Jones
Util: Aubrey Huff
BN: Corey Hart
BN: Adam Lind
BN: Kelly Johnson
BN: Marco Scutaro

SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Francisco Liriano
SP: Derek Lowe
SP: Javier Vazquez
SP: John Danks
SP: Kyle Davies
RP: Brandon Morrow
RP: Frank Francisco

Today’s roster is provided by Eric, who questions why his team has been having trouble this season. Obviously, every manager who owns Chris Iannetta and (especially) Jimmy Rollins has been frustrated by their performances thus far this season. While it wasn’t specified in the email, any troubles in the stolen base category can be explained by Jimmy Rollins’ struggles at the plate. Its awfully difficult to steal bases when you have an on-base percentage of less than .300. But, I think both Rollins and Iannetta will be just fine and, in fact, both have hit over .300 this past week. So with Rollins heading in the right direction, this team should be a little more competitive in the stolen bases category.

I think its fairly clear that this team could use some help in the power categories, especially since Josh Hamilton was recently placed on the disabled list. The good news is that this team has some depth, and I would plug either Lind or Hart into the lineup, depending on the match-up. Lind has hit in the fifth spot all year for the Blue Jays and should provide more home runs and RBIs while Hart should net more runs and stolen bases.

I would actually consider trading Ludwick and try to deal for more power. I don’t see Ludwick maintaining his performance for the entire year, and I would trade him while his value is essentially at its highest. I would consider dealing him in a two-for-one package deal, along with someone like Scutaro, who is on fire but very unlikely to maintain the rates he has been posting thus far. I would target someone like Ryan Braun who is more valuable all-around but who hasn't been playing up to par yet this season.

I’m not sure what the position eligibility is like in this league, but in many leagues, Brandon Morrow qualifies as both a starter and reliever. If he qualifies as a starting pitcher, I would definitely look to start three closers, especially since this is only a 10-team league. And considering this league depth, I’m not sure its worth holding onto Kyle Davies. If there isn’t a serviceable starter on the waiver wire, I’d recommend picking up a reliever who qualifies as a starter, and plug him in to help keep the ERA and WHIP numbers down. It just seems like Davies would do more damage than good to your team at this depth.

Also, since second base is a fairly deep position this year relative to previous years, I might drop Kelly Johnson to pick up more power. Again, this league is not that deep so Johnson loses some value especially since similar players like Mike Aviles can most likely still be found on the free agent list. The added player may not get much playing time, but that addition could help in the future, whether to help compensate for injuries or as a toss-in player in trade proposals. I just don’t think Kelly Johnson is worth a roster spot in this league.

Posted by Marco Fujimoto at 2:04am (0) Comments

Friday, May 01, 2009

Hit Rate Observer

So you want a starting pitcher who’ll get you a win. Which do you choose?

“A good one.” Yes—but pitchers who are good at getting wins might be less good at other things…

Let’s start here: Suppose you have a 4.50 ERA pitcher. How many wins can he be expected to get? I am sure we could run a calculation based on overall runs allowed and runs scored and get an approximate total for the season. However, since wins are accumulated by game, it may be fruitful to stick to that level. (For the discussion that follows, I will use ERA as our guide, though certainly RA would be a touch better.)

Now, a “W” is a matter of bookkeeping; it goes to the pitcher who was in the game when a team took its final lead. As such, the critical component for a starter to get the “W” is how long he lasts. Obviously, skill plays a role in that. And events don’t always correlate perfectly—in a blow-out win, a thriving pitcher might be pulled early to rest his arm, while in a losing but low-scoring affair, a manager may ride his ace. In general, though, the deeper into a game that a starter pitches, the better his chances for the Win.

So our scheme is two-step:

1. How deep into a game is our 4.50 ERA pitcher expected to go?
2. What is the win likelihood for a pitcher who goes that distance?

We can get an idea of the answer to the first question by looking at the aggregate ERAs of starters who pitched games of different lengths. We collected data from 2006-2009. The answer turns out to be neat:

Outs = 27 - (2*ERA)

That is, the expected number of outs is equal to 27 minus twice the starter's ERA. That’s a close re-statement of the trend line from this graph:

(Note: In this graph, the dependent variable is actually Outs Lasted; I’ve rotated the graph for our purposes.) By this rule of thumb, a 6.00 ERA starter would give us 15 outs (5 innings), a 0.00 ERA starter would go nine innings, and our 4.50-ERA guy can be expected to last six innings.

That answers the first part of our question. Now: All things equal, what’s the win likelihood for a six-inning start? Here are the numbers from 2006-09:

Win likelihood goes from roughly 1-in-4 in a five-inning start to greater than 9-in-10 (but well less than 100%) for a nine-inning start. (We removed the data points for 25 and 26 outs because there are so few examples.)

The graph is actually slightly better fit by an exponential curve than by a straight line:

A non-linear curve is reasonable: Holding a lead deeper into a game not only deprives the opponent of more chances to recover but also lets the starter hand off the game to his better relievers.

If we read a six-inning start from the trend line, we find that our 4.50 ERA starter has a 35.5% chance of getting the win. (This is not considering the efficiency of the two offenses or of the bullpen.)

That’s informative, but the exponential curve of our second graph has a deeper implication, which is that you really want a starter who can go deep into games, even if he also sometimes flames out. Consider two starts of a combined 14 innings: A starter who goes seven innings in each start has an expected total in the two games of 0.98 Wins, whereas a starter who goes five innings in one start but nine innings in the other has an expected total of 1.18 Wins—a fifth of a Win more. In fantasy, erratic genius pays.

Does this genius have an identifiable quality? What skill or skills are good for the long haul? To find out, we calculated the aggregate K/9 and BB/9 of all starters who reached X or more outs in a game:

The above is not a typical line graph; instead, the line here tracks the shifting skills exhibited in starts of increasing length. The path consists of 28 points—from 0 outs (shown by the orange dot) to 27 outs (shown by the green dot). Each point gives the strikeout and walk rates posted by starters who recorded that many outs or more. (The blue dot marks 21 outs—the end of the seventh inning.)

The graph has two sets of arcs. The main arc sweeps from the upper right to the lower left, from the first out to the last. There are a number of fascinating aspects. For one thing, there’s little distinction in strikeout rate from basically the start of the game to the seventh inning; at each step, we’re looking at 6.3-6.4 K/9.

In starts that last more than seven innings, strikeout rate does takes a turn—but lower, not higher. Starts that go into the eighth inning are characterized by an overall strikeout rate of just 6.2 K/9. And the rate in nine-inning starts is well below 6.0 K/9.

A higher strikeout rate is no help to going deeper into games. In fact, to reach a start longer than seven innings, it’s a downright hindrance. One reason is certain: Strikeouts cost pitches, generally more than the number required to post an equivalent number of non-K outs. We also wonder if, even apart from the ballooning pitch count, power pitchers lose control earlier in the game than do finesse pitchers.

What is important—far more important—for pitching deep into a game is a low walk rate. We can show this more clearly in a second graph, this one a straightforward plot of K/9 and K/BB versus Outs Reached:

In nine-inning starts, K/BB nearly eclipses K/9!

Now, there is some backwardness here: The data show that long starts are characterized by high K/BB, not that pitchers with high K/BB are fated to pitch long. Still, I think the point holds.

Fantasy leaguers love strikeouts. And it’s a fair point that a high strikeout rate can contribute to a high K/BB. However, these graphs say that a low walk rate deserves allegiance on its own. A walk rate under 2.0 BB/9 is a sign of not only control but also good health and, within a game, an absence of fatigue. And it’s the pitcher’s walk rate, not his strikeout rate, that determines whether he will stay in a game in which he is pitching well.

If you’re scouting for wins, you should leap at the chance to roster a starter with a 2.5 K/BB, even if he has a sub-6.0 K/9. What he costs in Ks, he could recoup in Ws.

(What about the second set of arcs? Those are the epicycles, the curious switchbacks in which strikeout rate creeps up and then suddenly drops. The drops mark the start of new innings. The decision to send a starter who has completed N innings back into the (N+1)th inning relies on factors other than his arm—whether the game is close, whether the bullpen is fresh. However, once a starter has been put in for another inning, then whether he survives to the end of that inning does depend, marginally, on his K rate.)

Posted by John Burnson at 1:52am (7) Comments

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects - 5/1/09

My #1 goal as your fantasy minor league expert is to create the ultimate minor league resource for all of you keeper league players out there. What better way to do that than create a Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list? It's not just your typical Top 100; I am solely concentrating on cold, hard stats. Defense does not factor in, although superior defensive ability could certainly push a player up the minor league ladder and into the majors faster.

I have only gone in depth on my Top 10, as of now. This project is a major undertaking, but I hope to have many more players fully broken down along with an updated ranking for next week. After that I will be updating the rankings and projections every month so you can stay on top of the most promising players in the minor leagues.

I also plan on starting a monthly Q&A section. Send any and all minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address). I will get to as many of them as I can.

-------------------------------------

1. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore / AAA / 5/21/86 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
I’m not worried about his AAA numbers at this point. They will pick up. If you are in need of catcher help, save your waiver wire position for a June call up. Expect Wieters to immediately join the top tier of catchers.
Average Year Projection:
.296 / .393 / 28 HR / 30 2B / 3 3B / 102 RBI / 86 R / 89 BB / 93 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.338 / .445 / 40 HR / 35 2B / 4 3B / 122 RBI / 101 R / 103 BB / 78 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - There’s not much more that needs to be said about Wieters. He’s a superstar. I fully expect the Orioles to use him in a DH role during his “off” days. The main comparisons I keep hearing are Joe Mauer and Mark Teixeira. I look at him more as Mike Piazza with plus defense and the advantage of being a switch hitter. People forget about how much of a complete hitter Piazza was. Wieters has the same makeup, and should have a longer career. Fifteen years from now baseball historians will be arguing over who the best catcher of all time is: Johnny Bench, Yoggi Berra, or Matt Wieters.

2. Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta / AAA / 8/28/86 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
Look for him to supplant the rotation spot of either Jo-Jo Reyes or Kenshin Kawakami in June, if the Braves can hold out that long. He will be a very useful starter in fantasy leagues. Don’t bank on ace-like numbers this year, but it’s possible.
Average Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.44 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 199 SO / 191 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
224 IP / 2.62 ERA / 1.17 WHIP / 20 W / 7 L / 241 SO / 198 H / 65 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - I may be overly optimistic, but this kid just seems to have the “it” factor. He’s 6 feet, 6 inches, 220 pounds with three big league pitches, including a mid-90s fastball and a devastating curveball. The Braves strike again. He will run into some control issues early in his career (most do), but I am fully expecting an ace career out of Tommy Hanson.

3. Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland / AAA / 1/8/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
The man is mashing at AAA. Expect him to be a full-time player after a June call up. He will give your team a great boost, a la Jay Bruce in 2008 and Ryan Braun in 2007.
Average Year Projection:
.282 / .368 / 31 HR / 28 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 86 R / 80 BB / 124 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.308 / .399 / 42 HR / 31 2B / 3 3B / 129 RBI / 103 R / 91 BB / 112 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - He’s not only the best power hitter in minor league baseball, but he has good contact skills and a strong eye at the plate. A true middle of the order hitter. He will be a passable defender at either left field or first base. He’s durable and a good clubhouse guy. Analysts are sleeping on LaPorta. He’s 24 already, but I’m not concerned. His prime is near.

4. David Price / SP / Tampa Bay / AAA / 8/26/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
They will keep him down at AAA for as long as they can, but I’m expecting a June or July call up. He may go to the bullpen, as the big league rotation looks strong. I’m not counting on a big fantasy season due to the unpredictable situation.
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.67 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 182 SO / 189 H / 69 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 2.85 ERA / 1.19 WHIP / 18 W / 8 L / 223 SO / 194 H / 58 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - I'm slightly concerned about Price’s stamina. Control issues could keep him from truly succeeding at the major league level for a couple of years, but by the time he’s 26 or 27 I’m expecting a No. 1 pitcher to emerge. Some are concerned about a sore elbow he had in 2008. I’m not; his mechanics are solid. He’s a strong competitor with ideal size and a nasty fastball/slider combo. Playing in the AL East will ultimately hurt his fantasy appeal.

5. Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 8/1/89 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
If he continues to dominate, which I believe he will, a ticket up to AA is all his. And I can’t wait.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - I’m not afraid to admit it; I have a man crush on Madison Bumgarner. I love his work ethic. His secondary pitches will get better. They will have to if he wants to continue this level of dominance at the AA level. He possesses an easy arm action and strong mechanics. His plus fastball has great movement. His command is off the charts for a kid his age. He not only has ace potential, he has “best pitcher in all of baseball” potential. But because he’s so young and hasn’t seen competition beyond A-ball, I have to rank him below Hanson and Price at this time.

6. Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee / AAA / 7/26/85 / ETA: 2009
2009 Thoughts:
The man is off to a torrid start. Last year was no fluke. It’s hard projecting a call-up date for Gamel due to his defensive inadequacies, but he will be called up at some point as long as Milwaukee stays in the race. When that happens, expect a platoon situation at 3B where Gamel receives the bulk of the starts against right handers.
Average Year Projection:
.288 / .349 / 24 HR / 43 2B / 7 3B / 98 RBI / 92 R / 59 BB / 113 SO / 6 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.311 / .385 / 30 HR / 47 2B / 9 3B / 110 RBI / 100 R / 66 BB / 102 SO / 9 SB / 4 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - Gamel sports an impressive, pure swing. He has progressed and gotten better at every stop he has made on his way up the minor league chain. I just feel like this guy can’t miss; his bat is too good. I view him as a poor man’s Chipper Jones, although I have serious doubts about his ability to stick at third base. A corner outfield position is in his future. But his bat and ability to spray the ball all over the field have me impressed.

7. Travis Snider / OF / Toronto / MLB / 2/2/88
2009 Thoughts:
Although he is having some success at the major league level, don’t expect anything more than a No. 4 outfielder provides in your average fantasy setup.
Average Year Projection:
.270 / .354 / 25 HR / 34 2B / 3 3B / 95 RBI / 83 R / 74 BB / 138 SO / 4 SB / 3 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.289 / .375 / 32 HR / 37 2B / 4 3B / 116 RBI / 96 R / 82 BB / 126 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS
Notes:
4/30/09 - I like the minor success he is having in the majors this year. It gives me confidence in his ranking. It will take a few years to reach his potential. He whiffs a lot more than I like, but he is a true professional hitter. His defense will play in left field, and that is a sigh of relief for many fantasy owners. I don’t see as much pure power as some are predicting, but I like him and feel safe with his major league prospects.

8. Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore / AAA / 4/15/88 / ETA: 2010
2009 Thoughts:
Expect him to stay at AAA all season, to great results. But I’ll be watching to see how AAA hitters adjust to his stuff.
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 175 SO / 194 H / 67 BB
Prime Year Projection:
208 IP / 3.03 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 204 SO / 199 H / 59 BB
Notes:
4/30/09 - He's really showing his potential with his move to AAA this year, and I’m impressed. He has a strong repertoire, even though it may not be elite. He has the history of good results that I love. He’s a big, strong kid with good mechanics. His intangibles and confidence really make me believe.

9. Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees / A+ / 11/28/89 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
Expect him to stay at A+ Tampa throughout 2009, where he will continue to display his raw power potential and work on his catching skills.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - His hitting prowess is starting to come into full bloom. The Yanks want to keep him behind the plate, which will take time. Hopefully his bat won’t stagnate while it waits for his glove to catch up. But it could turn out to be time well spent, obviously. A year or two from now he could be sitting where Matt LaPorta is right now as the best power hitter in the minor leagues. Ultimately, his best asset is his youth, which could be a gift or a curse.

10. Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City / A+ / 9/11/88 / ETA: 2011
2009 Thoughts:
I fully anticipate a call up to AA at some point, after a few months of mashing in Wilmington. Will KC try to get him some work at SS? I doubt it. 3B seems to be his fit.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
4/30/09 - The No. 1 skill that stands out to me, Moustakas has the quickest wrists in the minors. He makes good contact too, even though he has yet to see AA pitching. I’m watching and waiting for his eye and plate discipline to catch up to his physical bat skills, but he has lots of time to get things figured out. I wish the Royals would keep him at shortstop. I think he can play the position at a major league level. Fantasy owners share my sentiments.

11. Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona / A+ / 11/24/88 / ETA: 2011
12. Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston / AA / 9/25/87 / ETA: 2010
13. Buster Posey / C / San Francisco / A+ / 3/27/87 / ETA: 2010
14. Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas / AA / 12/5/86 / ETA: 2010
15. Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado / MLB / 3/22/86
16. Jason Heyward / OF / Atlanta / A+ / 8/9/89 / ETA: 2011
17. Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit / MLB / 12/27/88
18. Carlos Triunfel / SS / Seattle / AA / 2/27/90 / ETA: 2011
19. Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington / MLB / 5/23/86
20. Michael Stanton / OF / Florida / A+ / 11/8/89 / ETA: 2011
21. Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco / A+ / 8/13/90 / ETA: 2011
22. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida / AA / 8/25/87 / ETA: 2010
23. Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas / AAA / 5/2/88 / ETA: 2010
24. Kyle Blanks / 1B / San Diego / AAA / 9/11/86 / ETA: 2010
25. Gordon Beckham / SS / Chicago White Sox / AA / 9/16/86 / ETA: 2010
26. Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis / MLB / 8/11/86
27. Derek Holland / SP / Texas / MLB / 10/9/86
28. Pedro Alvarez / 3B / Pittsburgh / A+ / 2/6/87 / ETA: 2010
29. Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88
30. Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland / AA / 2/26/88 / ETA: 2011
31. Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida / MLB / 4/4/87
32. Andrew Lambo / OF / LA Dodgers / AA / 8/11/88 / ETA: 2011
33. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88
34. Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / AA / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011
35. Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / AA / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2011
36. Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco / A+ / 11/3/88 / ETA: 2011
37. Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore / A+ / 2/11/87 / ETA: 2011
38. Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee / A / 1/18/90 / ETA: 2011
39. Carlos Santana / C / Cleveland / AA / 4/8/86 / ETA: 2011
40. Michael Bowden / SP / Boston / AAA / 9/9/86 / ETA: 2010
41. Austin Jackson / OF / NY Yankees / AAA / 2/1/87 / ETA: 2010
42. Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / AA / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010
43. Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88
44. Jake Arrieta / SP / Baltimore / AA / 3/6/86 / ETA: 2011
45. Aaron Hicks / OF / Minnesota / EST / 10/2/89 / ETA: 2012
46. Daryl Jones / OF / St. Louis / AA / 6/25/87 / ETA: 2011
47. Aaron Cunningham / OF / Oakland / AAA / 4/24/86 / ETA: 2010
48. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / AA / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2011
49. Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / AAA / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010
50. Fernando Martinez / OF / NY Mets / AAA / 10/10/88 / ETA: 2010
51. Michael Inoa / SP / Oakland / EST / 9/24/91 / ETA: 2012
52. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City / A / 10/24/89 / ETA: 2012
53. Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta / MLB / 9/4/86
54. Brandon Erbe / SP / Baltimore / AA / 12/25/87 / ETA: 2011
55. Ethan Martin / SP / LA Dodgers / A / 6/6/89 / ETA: 2011
56. Martin Perez / SP / Texas / A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2013
57. Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / AAA / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2010
58. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / AA / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010
59. Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / A+ / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011
60. Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2012
61. Jeremy Jeffress / SP / Milwaukee / AA / 9/21/87 / ETA: 2011
62. Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona / AA / 5/6/87 / ETA: 2011
63. Wilfredo Boscan / SP / Texas / A / 10/26/89 / ETA: 2012
64. Jordan Walden / SP / LA Angels / AA / 11/16/87 / ETA: 2011
65. Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / AAA / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010
66. Jairo Heredia / SP / NY Yankees / EST / 10/8/89 / ETA: 2011
67. Caleb Gindl / OF / Milwaukee / A+ / 8/31/88 / ETA: 2011
68. Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay / AAA / 9/7/85 / ETA: 2010
69. Wilmer Flores / SS / NY Mets / A / 8/6/91 / ETA: 2012
70. Daniel Bard / RP / Boston / AAA / 6/25/85 / ETA: 2010
71. Max Ramirez / C / Texas / AAA / 10/11/84 / ETA: 2010
72. Carlos Carrasco / SP / Philadelphia / AAA / 3/21/87 / ETA: 2010
73. Jose Tabata / OF / Pittsburgh / AA / 8/12/88 / ETA: 2011
74. Casey Kelly / SP / Boston / A / 10/4/89 / ETA: 2013
75. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / AAA / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009
76. Ben Revere / OF / Minnesota / A+ / 5/3/88 / ETA: 2011
77. Jason Knapp / SP / Philadelphia / A / 8/31/90 / ETA: 2013
78. Zeke Spruill / SP / Atlanta / A / 9/11/89 / ETA: 2013
79. Michael Pineda / SP / Seattle / A+ / 1/18/89 / ETA: 2012
80. Matt Dominguez / 3B / Florida / A+ / 8/28/89 / ETA: 2011
81. James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers / MLB / 10/19/84
82. Adrian Cardenas / 2B/SS / Oakland / AA / 10/10/87 / ETA: 2010
83. Lance Lynn / SP / St. Louis / A+ / 5/12/87 / ETA: 2012
84. Bud Norris / SP / Houston / AAA / 3/2/85 / ETA: 2010
85. Dayan Viciedo / OF / Chicago White Sox / AA / 3/10/89 / ETA: 2011
86. Jason Castro / C / Houston / A+ / 6/18/87 / ETA: 2011
87. Trevor Reckling / SP / LA Angels / AA / 5/22/89 / ETA: 2011
88. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati / A+ / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011
89. Aaron Poreda / SP / Chicago White Sox / AA / 10/1/86 / ETA: 2011
90. David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore / AAA / 5/13/85 / ETA: 2010
91. Brandon Crawford / SS / San Francisco / A+ / 1/21/87 / ETA: 2011
92. Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta / AAA / 10/7/85 / ETA: 2010
93. Phillippe Aumont / RP / Seattle / A+ / 1/7/89 / ETA: 2011
94. Dominic Brown / OF / Philadelphia / A+ / 9/3/87 / ETA: 2012
95. Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland / AAA / 9/19/85 / ETA: 2009
96. Josh Vitters / 3B / Chicago Cubs / A / 8/27/89 / ETA: 2012
97. Sean West / SP / Florida / AA / 6/15/86 / ETA: 2011
98. J.P. Arencibia / C / Toronto / AAA / 1/5/86 / ETA: 2011
99. Josh Lindblom / SP / LA Dodgers / AA / 6/15/87 / ETA: 2011
100. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay / A / 1/27/90 / ETA: 2012

Other players that I'm watching closely:
Gorkys Hernandez
Kyle Skipworth
Vance Worley
Dellin Betances
Todd Frazier
Jonathon Niese
Lou Marson
Trevor Harden
Cody Johnson
Daniel Duffy
John Jaso
D.J. Mitchell
Reese Havens
Wilson Ramos
Ross Seaton
Mike Carp
Dexter Carter
Brad Holt
Mauricio Robles
Matt Maloney
Brandon Snyder
Brett Cecil
Yohermyn Chavez
Chris Carter
Kevin Mulvey
Jason Donald
David Huff
Michael Taylor
Reid Brignac
Brett Lorin

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:02am (6) Comments

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Josh Anderson | Detroit | OF
YTD: .341/.386/.463
True Talent: .283/.332/.380
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .288 BA, 1.0 SB
Anderson's True Talent isn't so much different from Jacoby Ellsbury's, and Anderson has a ton of speed. Leyland wants Anderson’s glove in the lineup, so he should keep getting substantial playing time even when Thames returns, which could be two more months. Being unestablished, Anderson could play his way back to the bench, but it seems unlikely. He's no .350 hitter, but he could keep stealing 2 bases per week.

Russ Branyan | Seattle | 1B/3B
YTD: .333/.415/.614
True Talent: .243/.339/.485
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .252 BA, 0.2 SB
Seattle used to have “Big Richie” Sexson, now they have Russell “Paul Bunyan” Branyan. There has never been much difference (other than batting side) between the two. Branyan’s five-hit game against Danks should maintain him in the lineup against LHP, so it's safe to count on more than the projected stats. Just don’t panic when Branyan goes into an 0-for-25-with-12-strikeouts slump. Because he will.

Asdrubal Cabrera | Cleveland | 2B/SS
YTD: .329/.434/.443
True Talent: .268/.343/.388
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, .265 BA, 0.5 SB
A personal fave, Cabrera is no longer a secret, but be careful about assuming that he'll steal bases! Of his 4 SB thus far, one was the back of a double-steal, another was against ailing Mike Redmond, and one was a sneaky steal of third base. Cabrera now has a total of 8 SB in 688 PA. His rate stats should end up somewhat better than his projection, and he has “filler” value as a tolerable middle infielder.

Scott Downs | Toronto | RP
YTD: 11.8 K/9, 14:0 K/BB, 0.84 ERA
True Talent: 8.3 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.03 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.4 Saves, 3.01 ERA
Since 2007, Scott Downs has been an outstanding reliever, and one of the scarce “2-way lefties” (.243/.321/.364 vs. RHB). His True Talent suggests not only that he can handle the closer job but also that he should be very good. Expect Downs to push Frasor out of the picture if he continues handling the pressure of closing well. And Downs is better than even odds to keep the role after Ryan returns.

Jose Morales | Minnesota | C
YTD: .349/.391/.419
True Talent: .253/.302/.353
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, .252 BA, 0.0 SB
Although he’s worth considering only in AL-only leagues, Morales has hit every year in the minors in which he was healthy, and he batted over .310 the past two years in Triple-A. Between Redmond's shoulder and Mauer's back, expect Morales to keep his spot and keep getting AB. He won't homer or steal, but his very low K rate (5 K in 49 career PA, with a similar rate in the minors) augurs a decent BA.

Scott Richmond | Toronto | SP
YTD: 7.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.70 ERA
True Talent: 6.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.56 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.51 ERA
Although the Jays seem to have found a Magic Pitching Formula, don't follow the lemmings who are chasing Scott Richmond! Okay, it's not quite that bad. The big Canadian is a great story, escaping the Indy leagues and striking out more than 7 batters per 9 IP. His fly-ball tendencies (39%+) will be okay in some parks, especially with Wells and Rios tracking balls. Unfortunately, the big offenses in the East are going to treat him rudely.

Kurt Suzuki | Oakland | C
YTD: .328/.377/.438
True Talent: .267/.335/.377
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .270 BA, 0.1 SB
Kurt Suzuki is the mad rage in fantasy leagues lately, though it's hard to see why. For AL-only leagues, he is already long gone, and will probably maintain about the same value. The A's offense will heat up some, and he'll add more R/RBI, but his AVG will drop from .328. For mixed leagues, he's just “filler”—nice to have for a weekend in Texas or the like. He does earn props for being durable.

Joel Zumaya | Detroit | RP
YTD: 3.0 K/9, 1:0 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: 8.3 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.94 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.91 ERA
When healthy, Zumaya is an exceptional pitcher. He is throwing 100 MPH still (again), and there's no doubt in anyone's mind that he's the best closer candidate on the Tigers. Current closer Fernando Rodney's True Talent (8.6 K/9, 2.0 K/BB) is good, but an ERA over 5.00 may point to a lack of focus. Especially if you own Rodney—but even if not—now is the time to pick up Zumaya.

National League by Michael Street

Joe Beimel | Washington | RP
YTD: 3.7 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.23 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 3.66 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
When Beimel returns from the DL, he’ll be the Nats’ closer, but the stuff’s just not there. He doesn’t strike out guys (career 5.0 K/9) or display great control (3.8 BB/9), and on top of that, he’s a lefty. In Beimel’s favor, he tends not to give up home runs (career 0.7 HR/9, only 1 HR since 2007), and he’s in a scrambled bullpen situation. For those, he’s worth a gamble, but don’t be surprised if you get burned.

Jesus Flores | Washington | C
YTD: .267/.348/.400
True Talent: .248/.306/.397
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .249 BA, 0.1 SB
The ceiling for Flores is high, but it’s not stratospheric, and for good reason: He has some pop, but he struggles against RHP (.639 OPS) and strikes out a ton (career 4.0 PA/K). Even with a .267 BA, his BABIP is an unsustainable .359. So either sell him high or ride his hot start, but don’t be fooled. Flores will be pretty good someday, but not just yet.

Dexter Fowler | Colorado | OF
YTD: .290/.366/.452
True Talent: .275/.350/.419
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .275 BA, 0.5 SB
Fowler’s numbers look strong, but his OPS away from Coors (.682) is 250 points lower than at home (.936), and he’s splitting time with Ryan Spilborghs. Eventually, Fowler will be the guy to own, but expect streaky part-time performance for now, providing steals, BA, and decent power. A clear must-own in keeper leagues or for those with roster room; everyone else can wait until he’s a full-timer.

Braden Looper | Milwaukee | SP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 2.45 ERA
True Talent: 4.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.32 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.19 ERA
The Brewers score runs behind Looper—he’s averaging 7 runs of support. But a sharp correction in ERA is in order, particularly with a 4.5 BB/9. Looper has benefited from pitching at the back end of the rotation, but he’ll eventually return to the #3 spot. He would benefit only the back end of a fantasy rotation, too, giving slightly above-average innings with few K and some extra Wins from MIL’s bats.

Joel Piniero | St. Louis | SP
YTD: 2.1 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 3.76 ERA
True Talent: 4.9 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.78 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.44 ERA
4-0 Piniero demonstrates the arbitrariness of Wins. His expected ERA exceeds his real ERA by almost a full run, and those peripherals are awful. He’s a moderate ground-ball pitcher (1.65 GB/FB in 2008), so he’ll succeed if he keeps the ball down and the Cards play 'D' and hit behind him. Just don’t expect much more than a few extra luck-inspired wins, very few K, and a sub-par ERA.

Edgar Renteria | San Francisco | SS
YTD: .275/.351/.435
True Talent: .277/.335/.395
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .277 BA, 0.4 SB
With the way Renteria started this year (.138/.194/.172 through his first seven games), he had nowhere to go but up. Since then, he has hit .375/.457/.625. True Talent says the reality is in between. At age 33, Renteria will still show a bit of power, but he’s not going to steal bases, and if he exceeds his True Talent, it won’t be by much. Not a bad SS option, particularly in NL-only leagues, but not a great option, either.

David Ross | Atlanta | C
YTD: .321/.457/.643
True Talent: .240/.334/.427
Next Week Forecast: 1.1 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .238 BA, 0.1 SB
Brian McCann goes down, and opportunity knocks—will Ross answer? Ross has always flashed power, but he just recently started taking walks (5.7 PA/BB in 2008, vs. 10.9 PA/BB in the prior five years). That trend has continued in the small sample of 2009, making him a decent bet to beat his True Talent. However, when McCann returns from the DL, Ross returns to backup duties, so he's suitable only as a short-term pickup.

Rafael Soriano | Atlanta | RP
YTD: 12.6 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 0.90 ERA
True Talent: 9.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.22 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 Saves, 3.37 ERA
Either Soriano or Mike Gonzalez could close for Atlanta, if either could stay healthy and consistent. If both could do it at the same time, Atlanta would have an awesome end game. Until then, Soriano will pick up the pieces for Gonzalez, as he has done twice already this season. With his strong peripherals, Soriano will be offered—and will earn—the occasional Save, but keep a DL spot free if you grab him.

True Talent and Next Week Forecast are taken from Heater Magazine.

Posted by THT Staff at 1:01am (0) Comments

Roster Doctor - 5/1/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: NL-only
No. of Teams: 8
Categories: 5x5, except on-base percentage replaces batting average and K/9 replaces just Ks.
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: Keeper League
Roster:

C - Brian McCann
1B - James Loney
2B - Mike Fontenot
3B - Casey Blake
SS - Stephen Drew
CI - Pablo Sandoval
MI - Miguel Tejada
OF - Matt Kemp
OF - Alfonso Soriano
OF - Nate McLouth
OF - Willy Taveras
OF - Randy Winn
UT - Milton Bradley
BN - Cameron Maybin
BN - Yadier Molina
BN - Luis Castillo
BN - Troy Glaus

P - Dan Haren
P - Derek Lowe
P - Paul Maholm
P - Rich Harden
P - Jair Jurrjens
P - Kyle Lohse
P - Brian Wilson
P - Manny Corpas

Unfortunately this is not a standard league, so I cannot do the "Honest Evaluation" technique Marco and I like to do but no worries, I can still evaluate your team. Keep in mind that everything with this team depends on whether you should be leaning toward "going for it" this year or planning for the future.

Looking at your hitters, you seem to have a nice young core centered primarily around Kemp, McCann, McLouth, Loney and Maybin. But then you also have another group of hitters close to or already at their time of fading into fantasy irrelevance, namely Bradley, Winn, Blake, and Tejada. Seeing how those hitters are less of impact players than the younger ones are, I would say you should be playing for today and should be competitive in the hitting categories for the next couple of years.

Your team is pretty light on power but makes up for it in runs and steals. In the RBI and on-base categories it seems above-average at best so your hitting is not top-notch but also could compete with the best teams if your role players like Bradley and Winn stay productive.

Moving on to your pitching, in short, it appears dominant. I like the irony of having the former A's one-two punch as your own, (I could not find an old A's commercial featuring the two of them) and Haren and Harden are both extra valuable in a K/9 league. Lohse, Jurrjens, and Maholm, although not strikeout kings, are solid ratio pitchers and round out your rotation nicely.

Right now you only have about one and a half closers—Corpas is the half of a closer—but in an NL-only league there are only 16 closers to be had, so you are not doing too bad there.

I would not mess up this team to much; it appears to be well balanced and competitive now with young players to keep it competitive in the future. The one thing I would do is drop one of your bench hitters, maybe Yadier because you can always plug Sandoval in at catcher if necessary and add a young pitcher. I am not sure who is available but James McDonald is an example someone I would look for, a young pitcher near or in the major leagues. I do not suggest you start this player right away, but consider them an asset for the future.

If there are no young pitchers available you like, then pick up a relief pitcher to help your ratios. I would rather have a guy like Aaron Heilman helping my ratios and adding in a few extra wins and Ks every few nights than Yadier rotting on the bench.

Other than that, all I can say is go for it this year. Talk to teams you see might be "sellers" later in the year, and look to make a push to take down the title this year. It is a possibility.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:00am

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