THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by John Burnson at 10:19am

Radio show appearance

I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show again tonight at 10:30 PM EST. For those would like to listen, here's the link. Should be a good time.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:00am

Fantasy Fallout: DeRosa to Cards

A few days ago, the Cardinals and Indians completed the first pre-deadline deal, sending Mark DeRosa to the Cards for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. This trade, while impacting the two players directly involved, probably had the biggest impact on the players not traded on the two respective teams.

I'll start with the fallout on DeRosa and Perez, however.

It is not a good idea to buy a DeRosa uniform, as it will most likely become outdated within a few months. (Icon/SMI)

Fallout: DeRosa

This trade certainly benefits DeRosa for the reasons Derek mentioned in his BoTR post yesterday. He will be facing, in general, easier pitchers and will have a monster in Pujols batting around him.

The Cardinals as a team do score less than the Indians, although I do not believe that will have more than a two or three run/RBI effect on his totals. That would affect someone more toward the bottom of the lineup, where the pitcher slot comes more into play. The move to Busch Stadium may also rob a home run or two from him, but I do not think the swap in stadium will have a tremendous impact.

The easier league and having Pujols in front or behind him outweigh the negatives and make this trade good for DeRosa owners, but overall the trade should not deviate his season-ending numbers far from what they would be had he stayed in Cleveland.

Fallout: Perez

As I expressed in this BoTR post, I felt Perez could steal the job from Ryan Franklin, who was and still is getting extremely lucky. Well, now Perez leaves one volatile situation (or at least one that I thought could be) and heads to an even more volatile one.

Current Indians closer Kerry Wood is running thin on his leash and if he continues to lose Cleveland games, I could see them turning to Perez since they do not have any other good options.

For the long term, for those in dynasty leagues, this trade is great as it places Perez in one of the weaker bullpens in the majors and Wood is likely gone after 2010, if he even still has the job by then. You also have to take into account the chance Wood lands on the DL for stretches of time, giving Perez the opportunity to earn a few saves before he may officially take over the job.

Yous should not, however, think Perez is an automatic lock to earn a closer's job in his future. There is no doubt he has the makeup with a hard fastball and a plus slider, but he has struggled with his control in both the majors and minors throughout his professional career. We can only hope that the soon-to-be 24-year-old will be able to overcome his control issues as he matures as a pitcher.

Otherwise, he will never move past the raw bullpen arm label and never become closer material.

Fallout: Indians infield

With Mark DeRosa gone, the other members of the Indians infield figure to benefit, namely Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jamey Carroll, and especially rookie Luis Valbuena. Peralta and Cabrera will now have starting jobs at third and short respectively, with Carroll and Valbuena splitting time at second. Carroll should play mostly against lefties and the left-handed hitting (but righty throwing) Valbuena will play versus righties.

Fallout: Indians bullpen

Current Indians closer Kerry Wood's job is safe for now, but his leash is even shorter now that the Indians have a bullpen arm they feel could be their closer for years to come. The two pitchers I thought could take over for Wood if Wood were to lose the job—Betancourt and Herges—are hurt by the trade as they now have another bullpen arm to compete with for that job. We will have to see who gets that eighth-inning setup role.

Fallout: Cardinals bullpen

If Ryan Franklin keeps getting saves as dependably as he has, then he has no reason to worry about losing his role. However, at 36 years old he is no spring chicken and should not be expected to pitch this well the second half of this year, let alone next year. The Cardinals younger bullpen arms, Jason Motte (and other potential relievers in their minor league system), figure to benefit from Perez's departure as the path to the Cards' closer role just became less obstructed.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:22am

Players to watch as the MLB trading deadline approaches

Over the weekend, the Cleveland Indians traded Mark DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later. As Porky Pig might say, this transaction represented the first shot of duck hunting season.

From now until July 31—MLB’s trading deadline—we can expect a lot of player movements. Or at least, rumors of player movement.

For anyone in deep leagues and shallow player pools, these trades can be especially significant.

In the Mark DeRosa deal, for example, the value of DeRosa didn’t much change.

But anybody hunting for saves had to consider whether Chris Perez was being lined up for save opportunities later this season, especially with current Indians closer Kerry Wood struggling.

Those in really deep leagues, who still own Jason Motte, may have let out a little smile, and anybody who participates in a league where middle relievers hold value should immediately track the progress of Cardinals prospect Jess Todd.

Finally, Luis Valbuena may not elicit tremendous excitement among the normal viewing public, but the Indians 2B has got to be a hot commodity among fantasy owners who are desperate for a middle infielder who will likely play every day now.

Often the biggest changes in value happen on the periphery. With that in mind, we’ve got our eye on five players whose value may spike, depending on what happens to their teammates.

First up is Ty Wigginton. The Orioles batter could get traded himself, or it could be Aubrey Huff. Still, a player who has hit 22 HRs in three consecutive seasons and one who has an OPS that’s almost 70 points higher throughout his career in the second half deserves close monitoring as to see if he gets a position to play every day.

Next, there’s Seth Smith, who has perhaps unfairly been regulated to a platoon role in the Colorado Rockies outfield. He’s hitting .300 on the year, has an OBP of .427, more walks than strikeouts, and is contributing both power and speed, yet he’s hardly rosterable with Ryan Spilborghs and Carlos Gonzalez stealing Mile High oxygen. But Spilborghs is a good trade candidate and Gonzalez hasn’t been doing much, so keep an eye on any moves the Rockies make.

Third, we’re monitoring Matt Thornton. White Sox general manager Ken Williams is one of the most aggressive executives on the trading front, and while closer Bobby Jenks still has some time of cheap service left to give, the Sox may dangle one of their best trading assets for the right price. If they do move Jenks, Thornton becomes a great candidate to become closer, sporting 37 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP in 29.7 innings.

Our final two guys are a pair of prospects who could earn promotion if the chips fall in the right spot.

Matt LaPorta tasted some big league action earlier this season, but the playing time was spotty and he’s now back in Triple-A. The Indians trade of DeRosa starts to clear some room for him, and one trade usually precedes another. The Indians are probably not done trading, and perhaps they’ll look to unload Ryan Garko. Pretty soon, LaPorta probably earns an every-day job.

Finally, a big sleeper—Jarrod Parker in Arizona.

This hasn’t been the greatest year for pitching prospects to make noise in the Bigs. Ask David Price. But Parker keeps impressing in the minors and now stands neck-and-neck with Madison Bumgarner as the most anticipated call-up among pitching prospects. Reportedly, the Diamondbacks have been shopping pitchers like Doug Davis and Jon Garland, which would clear room in their rotation. The Diamondbacks have not been shy about aggressively moving up prospects like Justin Upton and Max Scherzer before, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Parker in the majors soon.

For those who want the fantasy ramifications of breaking trades in July, check out the “Buy on the Rumor” column on the Hardball Times home page.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:16am

Roster Doctor - 6/30/09

Point incentives:
10-team H2H
Point incentives:
Hitters (H=+1, 2B=+2, 3B=+3, HR=+4, RBI=+1, SB=+2, CS=-1, K=-0.5, BB=+1)
Pitchers (IP=+3. H=-1, BB=-1, ER=-2, K=+1, W=+7, L=-5, S=+5, BS=-3)

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Pablo Sandoval
OF: Grady Sizemore
OF: Nate McLouth
OF: Hunter Pence
Util: Luke Scott
DL: Edwin Encarnacion
DL: Carlos Beltran
P: CC Sabathia
P: Josh Beckett
P: Matt Cain
P: Tommy Hanson
P: Javier Vazquez
P: Ricky Nolasco
P: Kevin Slowey
P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Mariano Rivera
DL: Jake Peavy

Rich wants to know whether to replace Sandoval with Encarnacion upon the Reds third baseman's return from the DL. Rich also is questioning whether JJ Hardy or Ian Stewart would be better options at utility.

Regarding 3B—if this was a Roto league, I'd tell you the team looks like it's a little short on power. In such a case, one might construct the argument that although Sandoval should be more valuable than Encarnacion overall, it's certainly conceivable that the latter could hit more home runs in the second half.

But this is a points league, and better yet, the league penalizes strikeouts and loves a guy with good contact ability. Namely a guy like Sandoval, who might be more valuable in this format than you realize. The format doesn't even care that as a member of the Giants, he doesn't score too much.

As for Scott in Baltimore, he's a guy who might be slightly less valuable in this format. The league is only 10 teams, making Scott a marginal option because he'll get occasional rest days against tough left-handed pitchers. Plus, Scott strikes out at a decent clip and his average is probably due for a slight correction downward. That said, he's probably still a better utility option at the moment than Hardy or Stewart and probably even Encarnacion.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:09am

Monday, June 29, 2009

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable link

Here is the link to this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. The question posed:

Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?

I'm really surprised that a few of the guys picked Greinke. He'd need to pitch a lot of innings to get to 240 Ks.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:01pm

Bullpen Usage Reports

Our own Alex Zelvin recently opened up the doors to a website called Daily Baseball Data, which has some cool tools for fantasy players to use. Over the weekend, he unveiled a new feature called Bullpen Usage Reports. As fantasy owners are constantly trying to gauge bullpen situations, this tool should become very useful. If you haven't yet, check it out.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:52pm

What do we make of CitiField?

CitiField will make for an incredibly interesting case study at the end of the season. During the preseason, while some said it would play as a hitter's park, the raw data seemed to suggest that it would play as an extreme pitcher's park. ESPN's Tristan Cockcroft recently discussed the situation to this point in the season using data from our good friend Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker. Tristan noted that Citi has robbed hitters of 36 balls that would have been homers in Shea Stadium.

Earlier today, however, our own Dave Studeman noted that the Mets have actually hit more homers at home this year, giving it a very simple home run park factor of 1.12 — meaning that it inflates home run totals. Accounting for the robbed balls, the park factor for Shea this year would be an insane 1.74. Shea usually played as a pitcher's park, so something is amiss here. I don't have much to contribute to the discussion at the moment, but I think this is very noteworthy and worth bringing to everyone's attention.

The moral of the story: don't jump to conclusions about Citi just yet. My guess is that it will eventually be declared a pitcher's park, and what we're seeing now will be some sample size shenanigans, but we really can't say anything for sure yet.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:38pm

DeRosa to Cards

As I'm sure you've heard, Mark DeRosa has been traded to the Cardinals for Chris Perez and a PTBNL. I discussed bidding on him in NL-only leagues earlier today, and I believe Paul Singman is putting together an article tomorrow to discuss the trade in more detail. Quickly though, it seems that both players will receive a boost in value. DeRosa is moving to the friendlier National League (albeit in a little tougher park for home runs) and will be batting cleanup for a very good team (he's sandwiched between Albert Pujols and Ryan Ludwick).

Chris Perez probably becomes next-in-line for saves in Cleveland, where incumbent Kerry Wood hasn't been very good at all. Rafael Betancourt will be in the mix when he returns from injury, but that is still probably a few weeks away. Unfortunately, the tougher set of batters Perez will face and his inability to harness his control could take him out of the saves picture soon. He doesn't look like a great short-term bet, but he should be owned in AL-only leagues anyway — at least for now.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:30pm

How to handle league-switchers in AL and NL-only leagues

Is DeRosa the star you should hitch your fantasy team's wagon to, or should you keep waiting for another Manny or CC? (Icon/SMI)

Those who played in an NL-only league last year know the kind of impact a Manny Ramirez or CC Sabathia can have when they enter the player pool mid-season. But what about a guy like Mark DeRosa?

Over the weekend, the St. Louis Cardinals shipped reliever Chris Perez (and a PTBNL) to the Indians for the everywhere-eligible DeRosa. The question many NL-only leaguers will be asking themselves this week is, "How much should I bid on Mark DeRosa" (or its close cousin, "Should I use my waiver priority on DeRosa?").

While DeRosa is a solid player, he's a far cry from a guy like Manny or CC. At this point, FAAB dollars are generally running low, and putting in the necessary bid to win DeRosa will all but eliminate a team from the competition to acquire any future league-switchers.

So what's an NL-only leaguer to do? There's no clear-cut answer, as is often the case in fantasy baseball, but there are some factors to consider that can lead us to a sound decision.

The DeRosa Factors

Note: All dollar amounts mentioned are on a $100 scale. Adjust as necessary to your specific league.

The league's normal "big bid": What does a big bid look like in your specific league? Did Adam Rosales go for $28 or just $8? Did Chris Coghlan top $30? This will determine, in part, how much you'll be bidding on DeRosa and other league-switchers. Holding all else constant, the smaller the required bid, the more favorable bidding on DeRosa is. Also keep in mind that the normal "big bid" will change throughout the year as teams start running low on cash. Evaluate your own league as need be.

My team's remaining FAAB: How much FAAB does your team have left? If you're following Scott Swanay's FAAB schedule I copied in my early season article on FAAB, you might only have $20 or $25 left right now. If you're low on cash, I would consider a bid unfavorable. While aggressive bidding is encouraged, leaving yourself with only a couple bucks to spend over the final 55 percent of the season will surely cause problems for you. If you have a medium or high total, I would consider a bid favorable since you will, at the very least, have some money left over to spend on hole-plugging role players the rest of the way.

Minimum bid: Does your league allow $0 bids, or is $1 the minimum? If it allows $0 bids, consider a DeRosa bid favorable since you can still acquire fill-in players even if you end up running out of cash.

Is FAAB tradeable?: If it is, a bid would be more favorable since you could still realistically acquire more, even if you run low.

Other teams' remaining FAAB: Perhaps the most important factor. If there are several teams with a lot of money left to spend, or a few teams who at least have you covered, a bid on DeRosa would be very favorable. Sure, it'll take you out of the running for subsequent league-switchers, but were you even in the running to begin with if Team X still has $90 left and is saving up for just this occasion? Make your bid now, and if you win DeRosa, great. If you don't, at least some team will have less FAAB the next time around. Waiting could be catastrophic if teams have a lot of FAAB left. You'll bid $35 on the guy who comes available next and Team X will bid $55.

My team's needs: Does this player fill specific needs or is it simply a value bid? Both are valid reasons to bid, but fantasy owners must always remember that the ultimate goal is to win the league, regardless of what shape that takes. If DeRosa fills a specific need for you, a bid is more favorable than if he would simply be a trade chip, especially as we get closer to August and the end of the season (and since owners will temper their offers with the hope they can land a better player via FAAB in a couple of weeks).

Who will he be replacing: This goes hand-in-hand with the previous factor. The worse your current player is, the more favorable a bid becomes. You're certainly not going to bid $30 on a guy if he's only going to be a marginal upgrade. In DeRosa's case, because he can play so many positions, he's likely a sizeable upgrade for just about every team in the league at some position.

How much work does my team need?: Would your team be better served with one big player (like DeRosa) or by acquiring a greater quantity of less-talented role players over the next month and a half? The less work it needs, the more favorable a bid is.

Quality of other potential league-switchers: Who else could be switching leagues this year? Is there another Manny coming, or will the remaining players simply be solid contributors in the DeRosa mold? Plus, we must consider the fact that we have no idea which players will actually be traded, much less whether they'll be traded into the NL (as opposed to an AL team dealing with another AL team). While there probably won't be anyone of Manny or CC's caliber this year, there are some appealing guys like Matt Holliday and Jermaine Dye, as well as some DeRosa-level guys like Aubrey Huff, Brad Penny, Jhonny Peralta, and Mark Teahen.

Unless you feel like you have enough money to make a serious run at a guy like Holliday, I'd say it's a pretty favorable year to make a bid on DeRosa. There's no guarantee who else will be traded or when, and getting DeRosa now will offer more value than a guy like Huff will in a few more weeks (not to mention the fact that bidding will improve your chances of ultimately ending up with someone instead of being left out in the cold).

Quantity of other potential league-switchers: Even if there aren't any superstar league-switchers, simply having a lot of them would drain FAAB funds and would likely make for some bargains later on. This factor should be considered in conjunction with the remaining FAAB of the other teams. Overall, though, I would lean towards bidding on DeRosa rather than waiting. Even if a lot of guys do get traded over (far from a sure thing), you'd likely have to wait until the end of July for the bargains and miss out on a whole month of production from DeRosa.

Standings fallout: Consider who the top pursuers will be and ask yourself this question: if DeRosa lands on another team, would it be the worst thing in the world? Maybe the 9th place team really needs a middle infielder, has a lot of money to spend, and is bunched up in home runs with a few teams who are near the top of the standings overall. If he were to win DeRosa, it wouldn't be the worst thing in the world. It would drain some FAAB from the pool and take some points away from your competitors. Just make sure to weight this against the likelihood that said team actually wins DeRosa and compare against how DeRosa would directly help your team if you were to win him.

What are your trade options?: While many would rather give up FAAB than talent for a quality player, others may not have that luxury. Or perhaps it would actually be cheaper to trade for a slumping hitter who will produce similar numbers to DeRosa (Garrett Atkins, maybe?). Every league will differ, but this is an option that should at least be considered.

Concluding thoughts

If you evaluate all of these factors within the context of your own league, hopefully you will have a pretty clear decision laid out for you — or at least you won't be completely bidding in the dark. As always, feel free to send any comments or questions to me via e-mail or the comments section below.

What do you guys think? Did I miss any factors that you consider? What players could be switching leagues that would have an impact on your decision?

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:00pm

Clone Wars: Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre

Jacoby Ellsbury had a huge 33 games in a 2007 call up and even made a great showing in the 2007 playoffs, but has yet to match those numbers since. He has been given many comparisons to other players, including Fred Lynn, Johnny Damon and Ichiro Suzuki. So far though he has fallen short in different ways, like batting eye or power. This leaves him in a dangerous position and looking dangerously more like Juan Pierre.

Name                GP   AB   R    HR   RBI  SB   CS   K%     BB%   BABIP  HR/FB P/PA
Jacoby Ellsbury     69  282   37    3   24   31    6  9.9%    6.6%  0.327  3.6%  3.8
Juan Pierre         67  229   37    0   24   18    6  7.9%    6.9%  0.357  0%    3.5

Jacoby Ellsbury

This season Ellsbury has shown improvement in his contact rate. His career strikeout rate is 12.9 percent, but he has been at or below 10 percent almost all season. Looking at his career he has a 13 percent strikeout rate in the lead off spot in 764 at-bats, but a 10 percent rate in any other spot in the order with 183 at-bats. This is still a small sample size, but may be a sign for the Red Sox to keep him at the bottom of the order.

However, the problem hasn't been strikeouts so much for Ellsbury, but the lack of walks. He has been extremely consistent with his walk rate, which is at only 6.8 percent in his career. This has always been a problem, and contributed to his OBP dropping to .336 last year. A reduction of his strikeout rate this year has pushed his OBP back up to .354. That isn't great, but for a bottom of the order guy with speed it doesn't hurt.

Unfortunately, the power has disappeared this season for Ellsbury as he has seen his HR/FB go from 10.9 percent in 2007 to 7.3 percent in 2008 and now 3.6 percent through 278 at-bats this year. This used to help differentiate him from Pierre. If he can't reach 10 homers, he starts to look like a one or two category guy and his value drops.

Ellsbury also hasn't been able to keep his BABIP as high as Ichiro's. While Ellsbury had a BABIP of .388 in limited time in 2007 year, his career BABIP is just .327. Ichiro's career BABIP is .358, resulting in better averages and OBPs.

Juan Pierre

Pierre is a well known entity at this point. He holds value in fantasy leagues for his batting average and steals, but in real baseball his value is limited. Now that teams are catching on, he has come to be a bench outfielder unless injuries strike. With Manny Ramirez out for a drug suspension he has seen plenty of at-bats and produced as we have come to expect.

In every season since 2001 Pierre has stolen 40 bases, scored 87 runs (except last year) and his career batting average is .301. He is as consistent as the come, but so is his walk rate. His career rate is 5.8 percent and this year's 6.9 percent is his highest since 2003 with the Marlins.

Power is the category where Pierre falls behind Ellsbury. Pierre has never topped three homers in a season, while Ellsbury hit nine in 2008 and has three so far in 2009. Pierre should be able to find full time at-bats as long as Willy Tavaras and Michael Bourn can get starting jobs. Unfortunately, that won't happen on the Dodgers now that Manny is back, and according to this LA Times report there is no interest in moving Pierre, so he will be dead weight to your team for the remainder of the year.

Conclusion

So being compared to Pierre doesn't make Ellsbury a bad fantasy option, but it certainly won't help him with the Red Sox. They are almost the same player, with a slight boost in SLG (about 30 points) for Ellsbury. Pierre's value will continue to fluctuate with his playing time, and his situation in Los Angeles, where he is behind both Ramirez and Andre Ethier, doesn't look good for now. Ellsbury has a firm grip on a starting gig, and is on pace for 60 steals this year, and should provide solid fantasy value going forward. If he could ever gain a few points in his walk rate he could head back to the top of the order and be an elite lead off man, but for now he's relegated to Pierre comparisons.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 1:49am

Friday, June 26, 2009

X-Man out

Xavier Nady was rehabbing at Triple-A and close to returning to the Yankees when he aggravated his shoulder on an outfield throw that will now require Tommy John surgery and likely keep him out for most, if not all of this and next season (h/t Rotoworld). He now joins a small group of athletes to have the procedure performed twice, and is only the second non-pitcher along with Vance Wilson to have it done more than once.

This news is good to owners of Yankee outfielders—Nick Swisher in particular—as Nady's return would have cut into their playing time.

Posted by Paul Singman at 8:37pm

Waiver Wire: AL

Chris Davis | Texas | 1B
YTD: .196/.252/.409
True Talent: .243/.296/.476
Next Week Forecast: 1.3 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .241 BA, 0.1 SB
Chris Davis has made even the pessimistic comparisons to Mike Jacobs seem rosy, and the legend of Rudy Jaramillo gets a tiny bit of tarnish. Sure, Davis was selected in every format, but shallow leaguers have already cut him, and he's a viable trade target in larger leagues. He has some crazy numbers right now, with a 48% FB% of which 21% leave the yard, and a Ct% of just 55%. Something has to give, and while there's a chance all those Ks will sink him, his past suggests it's a fluke. And when the contact rebounds, the power will be top-notch.

Alfredo Figaro | Detroit | SP
YTD: 12.9 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.60 ERA
True Talent: 4.2 K/9, 0.9 K/BB, 6.83 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 Wins, 2 K, 6.65 ERA
The first aria was nice, but we're not sure how the rest of Figaro's opera will be. The Tigers have made huge strides in team defense this year, with a league-leading .851 team RZR, and a good .701 DER. So, consider bidding $3 in 12-team AL leagues for the rotation slot, the ability to throw 98, and being Fernando Rodney's cousin. But even with a quick hook, he could do some serious ratio damage in less-deep leagues.

Tyler Flowers | Chicago | C
YTD: .281/.433/.522 (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
For deep leagues which use two catchers, the mere mention of the “C” position in a prospect is exciting. Since no other catcher is “interesting” this week, the idea of grabbing Flowers and just playing him as a zero until he's promoted is worth considering in deep AL leagues. The White Sox are right around .500 as predicted pre-season in Heater, and could be sellers this year (clearing a spot for Flowers) unless Quentin goes nuts. Catcher or not, he's a great hitting prospect for keeper leagues.

Gio Gonzalez | Oakland | SP
YTD: 9.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 8.03 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 5.35 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.41 ERA
Unscientific advice suggests avoiding any pitcher Kenny Williams ships out. Gonzalez has twice had that “honor” already at age 23. He's lost his control and looks nervous on the mound in Oakland. Gio does have great stuff and blew away AAA. He will have a good home park and defense backing him up. With Outman out, now is his time to lay claim to a rotation spot, but he won't get much “leash” before a return to Sacramento is contemplated.

J.P. Howell | Tampa Bay | RP
YTD: 10.9 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 1.82 ERA
True Talent: 9.9 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 2.92 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 Saves, 2.95 ERA
Masterful in the lefty setup role since the start of 2008, Howell has now collected three of the last four Rays saves, picking up a “W” in the other game. It's difficult for a lefty to earn a closing role, especially when his “fastball” comes in at an average of 86 mph and his ground balls ways are nice for situational duties. But Howell has shown almost no platoon split in his career, and he has “inertia” on his side now.

Ricky Romero | Toronto | SP
YTD: 7.3 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 3.59 ERA
True Talent: 5.4 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.57 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 6.05 ERA
The injuries keep mounting in Toronto, but oft-injured Ricky Romero hasn't been stricken ... yet. TT predicts him to revert to minor-league levels despite an enormous “unlucky” 18% HR/FB rate, and a normal .306 BABIP. We're going to suggest instead that he's very “high risk.” He has shown no fear of throwing strikes in the bigs, even with batters teeing off for nine HR in just 57.2 IP. And with that nice Toronto defense backing him up, he's a good role of the dice if spotted against the non-powerhouse offenses.

Marcus Thames | Detroit | OF
YTD: .268/.308/.549
True Talent: .254/.314/.520
Next Week Forecast: 1.6 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .254 BA, 0.1 SB
Heh, longtime bench/AAAA type Marcus Thames is suddenly batting cleanup for the Tigers. We've seen this before with Clete Thomas, right? Well, the difference here is that Thames has legitimate jaw-dropping power. All the advance fielding metrics indicate he's “adequate” as a fielder. Leyland tries to play “streaks,” so there's always the chance of another benching, but in any league where OBP doesn't matter, the great power stats (5 HR/12 RBI already in just 71 AB) more than make up for the low batting average.

Luis Valbuena | Cleveland | INF
YTD: .219/.291/.412
True Talent: .246/.315/.375
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 Runs, 2 RBI, .247 BA, 0.5 SB
Luis Valbuena had one homer entering the Cubs series but quadrupled that total in just two games. With the Tribe's bullpen laying the season to waste, the much-rumored DeRosa trade could free up full-time work for Valbuena even after Asdrubal returns. Still very young, this year's TT of about .250 and half a homer and steal per week could just be the first glimpses of a fine offensive player for years. Seattle could certainly use him and/or Asdrubal back.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: NL

Fernando Nieve | New York | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 1.31 ERA
True Talent: 6.9 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.79 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.0 IP, 0.6 Wins, 9 K, 5.13 ERA
Three straight wins from Nieve have gotten him plenty of attention since he joined the Mets rotation, but a deeper look will show a correction is coming. He's got an unsustainable 92% strand rate, and has allowed only 4% of fly balls to turn into homers. His HR/FB ratio has been between 16-17% the past two seasons, and that LOB% should naturally fall nearer to the 75-80% range. True Talent thinks his ratios will improve, while his ERA will fall, so his core skillset is strong, but that luck's definitely due to shift. NL-only owners can look to Nieve for help at the back of their rotation in leagues deeper than 10 teams, while mixed leagues shallower than 16 teams should hold off.

John Lannan | Washington | SP
YTD: 4.4 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 3.44 ERA
True Talent: 5.1 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.00 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 Wins, 4 K, 3.93 ERA
Lannan gets by on his groundball rates (over 50% for the past three seasons), not his mediocre strikeout rates. Pitching for Washington won't give him many wins, of course, and some of those ground balls are going to squirt through for hits in tight situations. He's done well lately, including a CG shutout against the Mets and 8.1 IP of 2 ER ball against the Yankees, but he's got a few awful starts under his belt, too, like the three outings when he gave up 5+ ER without pitching into the sixth inning. Given those up-and-down performance levels and the difficulty in collecting wins for the Nats, Lannan represents a real risk to your ratios without offering much in return. Teams can roster him cautiously in NL-only leagues of 12 teams or more, or in mixed leagues deeper than 16 teams.

Mitch Stetter | Milwaukee | RP
YTD: 12.0 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.70 ERA
True Talent: 9.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.65 ERA
The Brewers lefty recently set a franchise record by collecting 15 straight outs via the K, which shows why his K/9 rate is so high. But he logged similar numbers last year, with 11 K/9, so True Talent may be a bit too conservative in that department. He's also brought his BB/9 rates down from 6.8 in 2008 to 4.1 this year, while continuing to hold HRs to a reasonable rate (0.82 HR/G). He's not used as a LOOGY, since righties only hit .200 against him, though lefties (.104 BA) really don't like to see him, either. He has 13 holds on the year, but he can be valuable in any league for his high-K, low-BA ways. If your league counts holds, he's probably not on the wire anymore, but teams in any league deeper than eight teams could use him as staff filler to boost ratios and add Ks.

Leo Nunez | Florida | RP
YTD: 8.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.13 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.84 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 Saves, 3.72 ERA
Florida closer Matt Lindstrom had been stinking up the joint even before his injury, and most observers see either Nunez or Kiko Calero as the heir apparent. Calero is on the DL as another victim of the Marlins' abusive bullpen usage, but he's put up the best numbers among the possible closer candidates. Nunez and Dan Meyer (see below) will share time with Renyel Pinto at the back end of the bullpen while Calero's out, and possibly beyond. Nunez delivers Ks with his fastball, but throwing heat and knowing where it's going are two different skills. His BB/9 (4.2) and his HR/9 (1.39) are undoubtedly why FIPS and True Talent think his elevated ERA is just about right. He's the best of the healthy RHP, which makes him worth a pickup for teams needing saves, but Calero's numbers are much better. Unless Nunez or Meyer suddenly finds a groove, Gonzalez will probably install Calero in the closer role when he returns.

Dan Meyer | Florida | RP
YTD: 8.7 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 2.03 ERA
True Talent: 7.6 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.85 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.72 ERA
Meyer has strong numbers, but he's a lefty, and managers don't tend to put LHP at the end of their bullpens, even if great lefty closers like Billy Wagner, John Franco, Randy Myers or B.J. Ryan should change this ossified mindset. Plus, Meyer pitches better against RHB (.760 career OPS) than LHB (.799 career OPS), which bodes well for him. He got the save Wednesday because Nunez was unavailable, but he could outperform Nunez if given a chance. His 3.45 FIP and 3.76 xFIP, like True Talent, say that he's getting lucky, and that 1.32 HR/9 rate is unacceptable for a closer. But if Gonzalez opts to play matchups at closer, Meyer's a better lefty option than Pinto, with better ratios in all departments but HR/9 and that balanced platoon split. If you're a believer in momentum, and think that Gonzalez is contrarian enough to try a full-time lefty closer, Meyer's a fine pickup. Even if he doesn't wind up as the primary endgame option, those K numbers and excellent control mean he can still help you.

Casey McGehee | Milwaukee | 2B/3B
YTD: .348/.410/.500
True Talent: .264/.324/.389
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 1 Run, 1 RBI, .257 BA, 0.0 SB
After Rickie Weeks went down, McGehee started platooning with Craig Counsell at 2B, and has hit well enough to pick up a few starts at the hot corner and even at DH. His True Talent numbers and his .395 BABIP are sure signs that he's hitting over his head, but he's smashing the ball right now (.426/.483/.648 this month), and Ken Macha might find it hard to sit him until he cools off. Depending on the Brewers' plans for Bill Hall and Mat Gamel at the end of interleague play, McGehee could work his way into more playing time, increasing his value as a 2B qualifier. Unless he plays more than part time, however, McGehee is only a viable roster option in NL leagues deeper than 14 teams or mixed leagues deeper than 18 teams.

Kyle Blanks | San Diego | 1B/OF
YTD: .111/.273/.111
True Talent: .259/.327/.416
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 1 Run, 1 RBI, .260 BA, 0.0 SB
The top prospect in the Padres organization, Blanks' path to the majors has been blocked by Adrian Gonzalez, so he's been learning to play the outfield. In spite of his massive 6-foot-6, 285-pound frame, Blanks is actually quite athletic in the field and at the plate. In the minors, Blanks showed good plate discipline and power (.303/.393/.505 career) and hasn't look overmatched against big-league pitching. Some see his arrival as a signal that Gonzalez will be traded, but even if that doesn't happen, Blanks should be up for good. Keeper owners should certainly grab him if they've got the room, and everyone should watch him closely to see if he can adjust. In the meantime, he's worth a flier in NL-only leagues deeper than 14 teams or 20+ team mixed leagues.

Garret Anderson | Atlanta | OF
YTD: .277/.309/.387
True Talent: .276/.317/.414
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, .280 BA, 0.1 SB
He doesn't know how to take a walk (4.7 career BB%), but Anderson has been one of the most reliable BA and RBI producers in baseball, averaging .296 and 103 RBI in his 16-year career. Those numbers have slipped in recent years—he hasn't cracked 100 RBI since 2003, or a .300 BA since 2004—but he's still pretty solid. After a slow start, he's cranked it up in June, hitting .297/.333/.438. He's still a 37-year-old DH playing almost full-time in the OF, so this peak isn't likely to last as the season wears on. Atlanta's also got one of the weaker run-producing offenses in the NL, further diluting his value. True Talent tells you that his recent hot streak will last long enough to bring his YTD stats up a bit, but not much. This all makes him worthwhile in NL-only leagues deeper than 18 teams, though shallower leagues can still take his production while it lasts.

Miguel Montero | Arizona | C
YTD: .233/.331/.361
True Talent: .254/.334/.421
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 1 Run, 1 RBI, .259 BA, 0.0 SB
Now that Chris Snyder is on the DL, Montero will get most of the PT behind the dish, which could energize him to reach those True Talent levels. He's shown the ability to hit for power in the past, slugging .556 in the second half of 2008, but his problem has been pitch identification (0.51 BB/K career). That's what keeps his BA low, but he can obviously lay into a pitch when he does make contact. Chase Field is a good place to hit, and Montero will get his chance to show what he's got. If he can impress enough, he might hang onto the starting role, since Snyder has slumped after a hot May, leading to an overall line of .224/.358/.381. True Talent tells you Montero will improve his power, and NL owners should certainly take notice of this opportunity to pick him up. He's worth a roster spot in 8-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 12 teams.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Snell demoted

Pirates starter Ian Snell was demoted to Triple-A today because of his general lack of effectiveness. Snell was 2-8 with a 5.36 ERA and almost as many walks (44) as strikeouts (52) this season. The Pirates would like to see Snell regain his control in the minors and bring him back to the majors as soon as possible as they probably want to trade him before the deadline. Although not yet officially announced, the probable replacement in the Pirates rotation is Tom Gorzelanny.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:29pm

Jenrry Mejia and Other New Prospect Breakdowns

Looking for more prospect info? Find out where every prospect fits into the The Hardball Times ongoing Top 100 Prospects List.

New Player Breakdowns

31. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #31 / Low: #46 / This Week: +15
2009 Thoughts:
Oakland is committed to allowing Cahill the chance to work through his struggles, and that trust has paid off. He has slowly turned into a strong back of the rotation asset in fantasy leagues.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
6/24/09 - After a very rough start to his season, Cahill has started to slowly figure out the major league game, and most of his stats are following suit. Everyone is still waiting for his strikeouts to surface, and they just might as soon as he is fully comfortable facing the some of the best hitters in the world. Cahill works best as an attacker. Currently, he is working on sharpening up his movement and attacking the inside part of the plate. Good things are on the horizon. Is he still a future ace? Time will tell.

34. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #34 / Low: #48 / This Week: +5
2009 Thoughts:
Flowers deserves the chance to show what he can do in the majors, but A.J. Pierzynski stands in his way. Unless a rumored Pierzynski deal goes down, expect Flowers to finish up his 2009 at Triple-A Charlotte.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - Flowers' bat has begun to heat up, and his plate discipline isn't far off from Matt Wieters and Carlos Santana's. He is coming on strong as the South Side's replacement for A.J. Pierzynski, if the team is looking to move on. Pierzynski is having himself a heck of a year, though. We'll see just how serious the White Sox are about a youth movement.

35. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / MLB / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009 / High: #35 / Low: #75 / This Week: +3
2009 Thoughts:
Reimold has burst onto the radar screen of fantasy owners everywhere. He looks like a strong #3 outfielder for the rest of the year.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
6/24/09 - Reimold is the missing piece of an extraordinary Baltimore outfield along with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Those men, along with a little help from their friends, are on a quest to get Baltimore back to their winning ways. It's unclear as to how much upside Reimold really has, as he is 25 years old already, but his bat is legit. He can hit for both power and a respectable average. He will probably never be a .300, 30 home run hitter or a true No. 1 fantasy outfielder, but the production of a No. 2 fantasy outfielder is a good bet for his future. If he keeps hitting like this he will move even further up this list. Don't let his age get you down, as Reimold is a good prospect and has plenty of good major league seasons ahead of him.

38. Jenrry Mejia / SP / NY Mets / Double-A / 10/11/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #38 / Low: UR / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
This young man has snuck up on everybody, but don't expect the Mets to push him beyond Double-A. Lets see how the kid adjusts to his current league and the advanced hitters he's facing.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - I will admit it, I missed the boat on Mejia. Earlier this year I glanced at his High-A numbers, which were impressive on the surface but not all that spectacular peripherally, and then moved on to the next player that caught my eye. But, at the age of 19 I should have at least added him to the bubble. I didn't even consciously realize that he was promoted to Double-A Binghamton until a few starts in. That's when my eyes were opened. Right on cue, kindly Hardball Times reader Suchit Patel emailed me no more than an hour later looking for my thoughts on Mejia. Dear Suchit, go get Jenrry Mejia. I will admit another thing, I haven't even seen him pitch yet, but I'm hoping to catch his next start. I am being aggressive with this ranking, as I've essentially moved him ahead of Fernando Martinez as the team's No. 1 prospect, but the numbers and the age don't lie. He's riding on a lot of hype, and I usually don't just blindly buy into hype, but this time I will take the plunge.

39. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #37 / Low: #58 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
Tampa's advanced outfield depth chart is crowded, allowing for little wiggle room. If Jennings keeps opening eyes, though, a shot at Triple-A is a no-brainer.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - All of the hype is starting to become real. The best two things about his current Double-A run are not the eye popping fantasy stats, but two fantastic ratios that scream future success; a 38/31 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an 87 percent stolen base success rate in 26 attempts. There is a lot to like. But will a Tampa Bay outfield opening present itself in the near future? That's something Jennings can't control.

Read the latest installment of The Hardball Times ongoing Top 100 Prospects List.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:03am

Roster Doctor - 6/25/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 20
Categories: Traditional 5x5 plus OBP and SLG for hitters, and K/BB ratio for pitchers
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: Daily updates, Aug. 16 trade deadline, 5 keepers per year (3 years max), 6 teams make playoffs
Roster:

C - Jorge Posada
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - Kelly Johnson
3B - Chipper Jones
SS - Marco Scutaro
CI - Josh Fields
MI - Alberto Callaspo
OF - Carlos Beltran
OF - JD Drew
OF - Pat Burrell
OF - Matt Diaz
UTIL - Dexter Fowler
UTIL - Jeff Keppinger
BN - Coco Crisp
BN - Carlos Delgado

SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Zach Duke
SP - Dave Bush
RP - Justin Masterson
RP - Pedro Feliciano
RP - Alfredo Aceves
P - Matt Thorton
P - Jeremy Affeldt
P - Ramon Troncoso
P - Tim Hudson
DL - Brandon Webb

So right now your team is sitting in 18th place of a 20 team league. I feel this team has enough solid parts to compete and a couple of key moves could propel it into the top half of the league, although cracking the top six will be quite the challenge.

The first problem spot is at second base where Kelly Johnson is stinking it up. It is almost bad news that his groin injury is not serious, since then he could have been placed on the DL, giving you the flexibility to pick up someone new. If you do manage to free a roster spot, a good replacement is Kelly Johnson's probable real life replacement, Martin Prado, and he comes with the added bonus of being able to fill in for Chipper when he misses a few games here and there.

I know in the offseason I wrote an article saying Josh Fields is a decent late-round option at third base but now in June, it is apparent he has dropped from fantasy relevance. Once again the real life replacement Gordon Beckham is intriguing, but my feeling is that he is already owned. Chase Headley, Kyle Blanks, Ty Wigginton, Willy Aybar, and Ryan Garko are all players I'd rather see in that CI spot over Fields.

Callaspo certainly is not a sexy option at MI, but he is a solid one and you could do a lot worse there.

Beltran's fall is untimely and may be the dagger in your season looking back, but let's see how we can work around it as best we can. My favorite outfield pickup up is Seth Smith right now, who is outperforming the others stuck in that Rockies logjam in the outfield. I see the playing time start to fall more in his favor, both on the Rockies or on another team if he gets traded. A safer replacement with more stable playing time could be Gabe Gross or Daniel Murphy.

Burrell has simply been a steel anchor this season, dragging down all of the teams he is on, and I think in the next week or two it is time to make a decision on him. He has the potential to get hot and knock a few home runs and post a solid OBP, but is that worth waiting for? Are there better options in free agency? Unless he picks up the production over the next week I would bench him and cut Delgado or Crisp for the outfielders mentioned above. Another name to consider is Chris Dickerson if he continues to get regular playing time when the gets DH taken away.

The last note on your hitting: Keppinger can be dropped for most of the outfielders I have already mentioned as possible pickups.

Transitioning to your pitching, it appears decent, and obviously if Brandon Webb had not gone down it would look much better. Oswalt might be someone you could look to trade, if his name can cover his numbers and fetch you something valuable. I can see why you picked Bush since he would be extra-valuable in this league because of the K/BB category, but unfortunately he's walking plenty of guys this year, taking away aspect of his game that made him valuable.

For someone who punted saves, I like a lot of the guys in your bullpen—Thorton and Aceves namely—because I believe Thorton has a decent chance of becoming the ChiSox closer (Jenks trade) and Aceves is a great ratio helper, often throwing multiple innings in his appearances.

Overall, I think you might want to half throw in the towel here. I gave you some suggestions of how to help your hitting in little Band-Aid patches, but you will have to pull off a superbly good trade—Kazmir for Zambrano-esque—in order to jump into contention for that last playoff spot. When your best hitter and pitcher are lost to injury for significant periods of time, it is easier to start thinking about next year and hire a new trainer.

A strategy you should consider is trading away some of your remaining valuable pieces for a player you would want as a keeper for next year, helping you for then, hopefully with better luck next time.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:59am

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Lindstrom to DL, out at least four weeks

The Marlins have placed closer Matt Lindstrom on the DL and will allow him to rest for four weeks, opening up a lot of save opportunities for his replacements. There are a few candidates, including Leo Nunez, Dan Meyer, Brian Sanches, and Kiko Calero (DL). Leo Nunez seems like the most likely option, although he did struggle last night, which will be in the back of manager Fredi Gonzalez's mind.

Dan Meyer has shown the best skills so far this year (3.13 LIPS ERA), but most have considered Nunez next in line for a while. Either one would likely have the skills to hold down the job for a month, and both have similar gmLI's (1.48 to 1.46, Nunez). Brian Sanches doesn't look like as good a bet as the other two (less talked about and lower 1.33 gmLI), but Kiko Calero could factor in once he returns from the DL if the Marlins can't find a go-to-guy in his absence.

All four should be owned in NL-only leagues for now, Nunez should be owned in all mixed leagues, and Meyer can be owned in medium-to-deep mixed leagues. This is all, of course, subject to change based upon who gets the first ninth inning call.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:44pm

Worst Monday: Week 3 results

The first winner of Worst Monday fielded only hitters; the second winner fielded only pitchers.

The third winner of Worst Monday, Corey Robinson, seized the worst of both worlds—a hitter (Mike Napoli) who struck out twice in three at-bats, and a pitcher (Matt Palmer) who gave up 6 ER and 12 baserunners in 4.2 innings and took the Loss in the process.

For his effort, Corey wins a year's subscription to Heater Magazine. And with -5.7 points, Corey is now tied with last week's winner for the season crown; if Corey can hold that position until October, he will get a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Thanks to everyone who entered. Worse luck next week!

Posted by John Burnson at 12:37pm

Outfield Bargains

We are nearing the All-Star break, and this is typically when fantasy teams really get cranking with trade offers, retooling their lineups, and start dissecting the numbers a lot more closely. We'll take a look at four outfielders who could be a major bonus to fantasy teams for the rest of the season.

Colby Rasmus, St. Louis: He reminds me of Grady Sizemore, but with less speed. Don't think just because he only has one stolen base this season that he doesn't have the wheels. In the minors, he averaged nearly 15 steals per season, which may translate to 10-12 in MLB. I don't care who you are, if you hit behind Albert Pujols, you're going to get the best opportunities possible to produce. Rasmus has been a top prospect for a few years now, and he is finally starting to show his skills at the major league level. He could eclipse the 40-double mark this year, and while his average should dip to a more reasonable .270-ish range, it wouldn't surprise me to see him accrue 65 RBI by season's end.

Nolan Reimold, Baltimore: Formerly the No. 3 prospect in the Orioles organization, Reimold has finally earned every day playing time with the Birds. The way he has been playing, he could be the dark horse for AL ROY. The power is there, and his plate discipline has been pretty darn good. I would compare him to Conor Jackson, except with more power potential. Once some of his teammates begin to rebound from slumps (Brian Roberts, Melvin Mora), the RBI opportunities will rise. I could see him finishing the season with close to 20 HR and 70 RBI with a .280 average.

Chris Young, Arizona: You don't go from hitting 54 HR and 170 RBI combined over the previous two seasons to hitting a measly six HR in nearly 250 plate appearances this season. His walk and strikeout rates remain very similar to the past few seasons, which is encouraging, but the main difference is that his GB/FB rate is so much lower than what has been the norm for him. He could be pressing a bit, so it could be a batting mechanics issue causing him to keep popping the ball up (his HR/FB rate is down sharply). If he can figure things out, expect a rebound in the second half. He is nursing a groin injury right now, but it is unlikely that he will need to miss any great length of time, so I would try to trade for him now while you still can get good value. He may even be lingering on some free agent lists in some mixed leagues.

Jay Bruce, Cincinnati: This guy launched 21 HR as a rookie last season and has had a very rough go of it in 2009. His BABIP is currently the lowest among all qualifying players in MLB at a ghastly .199! A guy with this type of talent simply should not be hitting this badly. While a demotion doesn't seem likely, he may benefit from some time off to get his head straight. In the meantime, check and see if he is available on your free agent list and snag him for what could be a resurgence in the second half. He is way too good to keep hitting this poorly (just look at how he severely crushed minor league pitching).

Posted by Chris Neault at 4:19am

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

Worst Monday: Balloting open

Once again, we're looking for the online fantasy leaguer with the most aggravating Monday. Only one of the eight teams that played Monday scored more than six runs, so this could be the first Worst Monday where a positive score wins the title. Still, four starting pitchers took the Loss—maybe you own one (or two, or more) of them?

Entering's a snap:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

We'll sift through the entries and announce the winner on Wednesday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Posted by John Burnson at 8:00am

Trading players you don’t own

Most strategies in fantasy baseball are almost universally known, making most strategy articles nothing more than boring reminders to the people reading them. Having said that, the strategy—or tactic, it might be better called—that I am writing about today is one that I think most people do not know about and hopefully after reading the title you were utterly and positively confused.

Here's how you can trade players you don't even own:

The situation

Everyone who has ever tried to negotiate a trade in fantasy baseball has gotten to the point where there is a sticking point in the deal. Often it is a player who is disagreed upon; the guy you are trading with demands a player be included in the deal, and you want no part of that player. We will say the player you do not want is Casey Blake because even though he is having a resurgence of a season, you are wary of his .333 BABIP and 14 percent HR/FB rate.

Now, you do not want Casey Blake, but perhaps someone else will. So what you can do is while the first deal is offered—let's say it is Kevin Youkilis and Brian Roberts for Casey Blake and Chase Utley—you can start shopping around Blake as if you own him.

Technically you do not own Blake, but as long as that deal is offered from the other team you can pretend that you do in other trade negotiations. Say you find someone who really likes Blake and you negotiate a good deal, giving Blake and a decent pitcher like Carlos Zambrano for David Wright. Perhaps that second trade is a little unrealistic but the point is that if you come to a stopping point in a deal, while it is offered you can try to trade that stopping point for another player you like better, making the original deal now "accept-able".

When evaluating the trades you can simply pretend Casey Blake never existed, so:

Kevin Youkilis, Bryan Roberts, Carlos Zambrano, and ~~Casey Blake~~ for ~~Casey Blake~~, Chase Utley, and David Wright

Becomes more simply:

Youkilis, Roberts, and Zambrano for Utley and Wright.

Implementing the trade-player-you-don't-yet-own tactic can help you complete trades that otherwise might have been left uncompleted but should not be used unless you know the warnings.

Caveats

As you probably can imagine, this tactic is ripe for creating disputes and controversy, so every step should be made crystal clear to both parties involved.

Make sure that the first deal is offered and the other owner is fine with you accepting it at anytime. Having his* written consent is preferable in case he tries to say afterward that he never agreed to letting you accept. Otherwise the argument can compound where the person with whom you negotiated the second deal demands you do his deal, but you do not have the players to do the second deal because the first guy rescinded the first deal.

*I know "hers" and "shes" play fantasy baseball as well, but I put only the masculine pronouns to keep those sentences grammatically correct (singular) and readable.

The other main problem that could arise occurs when you complete the first deal, but then the person involved with the second deal decides to back out for whatever reason. Then you are stuck with a deal you probably would have not accepted without the second deal already negotiated beforehand. Make sure the owner of the second deal understands exactly what deal he will be accepting and that he will, indeed, accept it.

Concluding thoughts

So that is how you trade players that are not even on your team. The next time you are in trade negotiations that stall, try to shop around pieces of the deal and see if what you can get makes it worthy of acceptance. Just make sure everything is communicated clearly because I do not want to be the cause of controversy and maybe even broken friendships.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:11am

Roster doctor

Head-to-head fantasy league with R, HR, RBI, SB, OPS, W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP:

C - Russell Martin
1B - Kevin Youkilis
2B - Ben Zobrist
3B - Mark DeRosa
SS - Jason Bartlett
OF - Justin Upton
OF - Torii Hunter
OF - Matt Kemp
Util - Manny Ramirez (when he comes back from suspension)
BN - Juan Pierre
BN - James Loney
BN - Casey Blake
SP - Hiroki Kuroda
SP - Clayton Kershaw
SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - James Shields
SP - Vince Mazzaro
SP - Rick Porcello
SP - Luke Hochevar
RP - Jonathan Broxton
RP - Jonathan Papelbon
RP - David Aardsma

Available hitters: Rafael Furcal, Felipe Lopez, Freddy Sanchez, Mark Teahen, Jerry Hairston Jr., Miguel Olivo, John Baker, Yadier Molina, Rod Barajas, Kurt Suzuki and Ronny Paulino.

Available pitchers: Brandon Morrow, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Frasor, Alfredo Aceves, Dan Meyer, Sean West, Scott Richmond, Dallas Braden, Matt Maloney, Antonio Bastardo, LaTroy Hawkins, C.J. Wilson, Rafael Soriano, Brad Ziegler and Andrew Bailey.

Alec sent me a bunch of questions about upgrading various positions and gave me a list of free agents in his league. I would replace Hochevar with Ubaldo Jimenez. That'd be about it. I would also treat Mazzaro with a light hand, starting him when match-ups are in his favor. If Alec wanted to find a middle reliever that'll help with strikeouts, WHIP and ERA and perhaps vulture a save in place of Mazzaro, I wouldn't poo-poo it. I would not get rid of Martin in favor of any of the waiver wire catchers.

Instead, I think Alec may be able to find some help from his fellow competitors. Alec didn't mention how many teams are in his league—based on his roster, I'd guess about twelve. Alec has a great middle infield, but he has too many middle infielders (assuming typical eligibility rules). He has a ton of players with position flexibility: Youkilis qualifies at first and third, DeRosa at everywhere but shortstop, and Zobrist at both middle infield positions as well as some others.

I would trade one of the middle infielders (DeRosa, Zobrist or Bartlett) for a better corner infielder. Alec should get the infield player with the best numbers irrespective of his position (which would likely be a first baseman, but depends on the needs of other competitors) and then move his roster around accordingly. Or, he can put Loney at first, Youkilis at third and trade one of the aforementioned for a pitcher. Seek out teams with injuries—perhaps the team with Jose Reyes has gotten by with a replacement level substitute but it now getting itchy. If I could get equal value for each, I would trade, in order, Bartlett first, then DeRosa.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:49am

Monday, June 22, 2009

Clone Wars: Pitchers due to fall

Clone Wars is my new weekly article here at THT and will be used to address players who look very similar on the surface and discuss what makes them the same or not. If they are different we will discuss which one is worth owning if any and why. This week we have two pitchers with ERAs around three and good win totals so far. One has shown success before and the other is a sophomore breakout so far.

Zach Duke

YTD: 3.18 ERA, 7 W, 47 K

Starting pitcher Zach Duke showed flashes in 2005, winning eight games with an ERA of 1.81 and a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 2.51 in 84.7 innings . Sure he had some luck in homerun-per-flyball percentage (5.8%) and left on base percentage (84.2%), but still his xFIP was 3.66. Even if you went into 2006 expecting that type of skill you were disappointed as his ERA has been at or above 4.40 every season since. His K/BB has never been the same as it fell below 2 for every season since.

His problem has been strikeouts since 2005. His strikeouts per nine innings in 2004 was 6.17, but has been close to four while his walks per nine innings has been similar. Looking at his minor league numbers you can see that 6.17 K/9 was not his norm. In 105.3 IP in Triple-A in 2005 before his callup he had a K/9 of 5.49. It's possible he could have kept the 6.17, but not likely.

There is also reason to be concerned about his pitching as his groundball percentage has dropped three years in a row. It has gone from 51.1 percent in 2006 and is down to 45.3 percent this year. This change will be seen in his home runs allowed total this year if it continues.

Has he changed anything in 2009 to maintain his current numbers though? Nope. His numbers look very similar to the past three years and his luck indicators are calling for a regression. His BABIP and LOB% are combining to strengthen his ERA so far at .268 and 78.5 percent, respectively. His HR/FB is fairly normal for him, but looking at his FIP of 4.29 and his xFIP of 4.57 you can see he is going to have a rough second half.

Nick Blackburn

YTD: 3.09 ERA, 6 W, 39 K

Starting pitcher Nick Blackburn has yet to have previous success in the major leagues, so his success so far is a nice surprise. He has always had his best success by controlling his walks and in 2007 at Triple-A he only allowed 0.89 BB/9, which led to a great season with seven wins and an ERA of 2.11. The concern was a low strikeout rate even though his K/BB was 4.00.

In his first full season his walk rate did come back up to 1.82 and his strikeout rate did not improve. He was able to maintain a K/BB of 2.46 though and although his xFIP was 4.40 there were signs he could be a usable pitcher if his walk rate improved.

So far this season he has struggled with strikeouts and walks and his K/BB now stands at 1.56 in 93.1 innings. He is much like Duke with a low BABIP and high LOB%, but he is also showing a very low HR/FB. Since his HR/FB is so low I would expect his xFIP to be more accurate and it stands at 4.95.

Some notes on his PITCHf/x are the drop in his fastball average speed from 91.3 to 90.6, but his slider is down two mph as well. There is also an increase of two mph in his change-up making the split between the fastball and change-up three mph slower than before. I don't think this is necessarily any injury, but just making his stuff less effective. I don't follow the Verducci effect, but it is note worthy he threw 33 more innings in 2008 than 2007 across all levels.

Conclusion

These pitchers faced off on Thursday with Blackburn throwing a complete game for the win, but these two pitchers are soon to be head in the same direction. Expect both to have ERAs in the mid 4s by the end of the season and if you can't trade them you should at least move them to the bench.

If they happened to hold their ERA numbers with continued luck, their low strikeout rates give them very low value. Obviously Blackburn would be the better bet for wins, but Duke should have the better ERA as his team defense has been much better this year.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 12:07am

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Endy out, Wladimir in… for now

Endy Chavez' season will come to an abrupt end after tearing his ACL in a collision with Yuniesky Betancourt on a pop fly. Chavez had been splitting time with Wladimir Balentien, who is disappointing for the second straight year in the majors, batting just .223 with one home run and only one stolen base thus far.

At 24 years old, Balentien needs to prove himself worthy of a starting gig in the majors in this audition, which probably will be his last if he does not perform. He has yet to follow up his impressive 2007 stint Triple-A in which he batted .291 with 24 home runs and 15 steals.

Waiting in the wings is the raw, yet talented outfield prospect Michael Saunders who is two years younger than Balentien and has shown maturity in Triple-A in 2008, cutting down his strikeout rate from last year's 32 percent to 19 percent this year. Saunders has also played well, batting .296 with 8 home runs, however the Mariners have expressed their wariness of rushing Saunders and so he likely won't make an appearance in the majors until August-September.

For those in AL-only leagues and deep mixed leagues (16+ teams) Balentien is certainly worth a look because of the increase in playing time he will see.

Posted by Paul Singman at 12:16am

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Wood on thin ice?

Indians closer Kerry Wood blew his second consecutive save last night, raising his ERA to 5.47 in the process. Wood may get a mulligan for the past two blown saves seeing as how they came at Wrigley Field against the Cubs, the team he spent the first ten years of his career with. Still, before heading into the series Wood's ERA was already at 4.63, and he is now 8 for 12 in save opportunities for the season.

My feeling is Wood will still get the call in the ninth as long as he does not blow another save in his next few chances, although I am skeptical of his ability. His biggest problem this year is his unacceptable 5.2 BB/9 rate, which interestingly is not the result of his throwing the ball outside the zone more often. Looking at the FanGraphs Plate Discipline data, we see he has thrown the ball in the strike zone at about the same percentage as 2008. What has changed is that batters are swinging at pitches outside the zone at a much lower rate (31 percent in 2008, 18 percent in 2009) leading me to believe he is not fooling batters with his stuff as much.

I am not sure why that would be because he is actually striking out batters at an incredible 10 batters per nine innings rate, but for whatever reason he is not getting hitters to chase his out-of-zone offerings.

The Indians bullpen does not present itself with any obvious alternatives—the names are Matt Herges, Luis Vizciano, Tony Sipp and Rafael Betancourt, who should be coming off the DL in a little over a week. Herges is having a good season (2.66 ERA) and has closing experience as the Giants closer back in 2004. Betancourt was also having a solid season before getting hurt, and is trusted by manger Eric Wedge (1.40 gm/LI).

Some consider current minor league Tony Sipp to be a dark-horse candidate but I would find it shocking to see him fill the closer's role if vacated because of the loogy-nature of his stats. Righties are hitting over .300 against him in the minors this year.

So Herges and Betancourt are the players I would turn to if Wood's struggles continue.

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:01pm

Friday, June 19, 2009

Sell on the news: Rick Porcello

When a 20-year-old rookie who hasn't previously pitched above Single-A is compared by his manager to Nolan Ryan, that's probably a good "sell" signal. To be sure, Jim Leyland was speaking heatedly on May 18 when he said of Rick Porcello, ""I'm not going to take him out of the rotation. He's (bleeping) Nolan Ryan right now." Still, Leyland was seeing what the world was seeing, which was a 20-year-old rookie pitcher with a 3.86 ERA and 4 Wins after seven starts.

Yesterday, Porcello won his eighth game, and his ERA now sits at 3.54. But let's see how Porcello's skills have held up since Leyland's remarks:

             IP     K/9   K/BB   ERA
             =====  ====  ====   ====
MLB < 3/18    39.2   5.7   1.9   3.86
MLB > 3/18    34.0   4.2   1.6   3.18
===========  =====  ====  ====   ====
Single-A     125.0   5.2   2.2   2.66

What we were seeing before May 18 was plausibly the best that could have been hoped for Porcello given the jump in level; even then, though, he was hardly mastering batters. Granted, Porcello has a high G/F (and it's actually higher in the later stretch—3.6 G/F, vs. 2.8 G/F beforehand). But you don't survive in the majors with a 4.2 K/9 and 1.6 K/BB.

According to Heater, Porcello has a LIPS ERA of 4.46, and a "True" ERA of 5.53. With a jump of two runs, his rank would fall from the 17th-best ERA in the AL to the 65th-best. That's territory for a seller to make a nice profit.

Posted by John Burnson at 3:53pm

Kyle Blanks called up

The Padres have recalled top prospect 1B/OF Kyle Blanks (h/t Rotoworld). It would make little sense to recall a prospect of his caliber to sit him, so he makes a great pickup in NL-only leagues. He has very good power, a little speed, and could post a semi-respectable batting average, so he can also be picked up in deeper mixed leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:10pm

Waiver Wire: AL

Ronny Cedeno | Seattle | SS/2B
YTD: .139/.195/.264
True Talent: .252/.301/.375
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .251 BA, 0.3 SB
Looking as if he might be the next coming of Rich Aurilia—who struggled for years before emerging as an All-Star—Ronny Cedeno was given a full-time job by Dusty Baker in 2006, sinking 572 PA into an offensive black hole just as he'd done with Aurilia in SF. That he's now 26, has a career batting line of .244/.282/.343, and has been awful in 2009 would all be more damning if he hadn't clobbered AAA pitching when demoted in 2007. He has a chance to earn more PT in this awful middle infield if he hits while Lopez is on bereavement leave.

Jason Frasor | Toronto | RP
YTD: 7.2 K/9, 6.3 K/BB, 1.90 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.39 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.5 Saves, 3.52 ERA
Listed at 5-9, Jason Frasor has probably earned significantly less money in his career than if the same 95+ heater and nasty slider came in a larger package. But hitters know about him (8+ career K/9), and his righty presence in the mostly-gauche Blue Jays pen is perfect in a complementary role. But Cito rewards good play, not size of pitcher or size of contract so Frasor should get the biggest share of the saves “pie,” at least until Downs' toe is healed. And we'd call him 1-in-3 to keep getting the most saves even after that.

Matt Harrison | Texas | SP
YTD: 4.8 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.43 ERA
True Talent: 6.0 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 6.04 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 10.1 IP, 0.5 Wins, 7 K, 5.76 ERA
“Pass.” We could save 74 words and leave it at that. But it's come to our attention that people are adding Matt Harrison in various formats. The promise of youth is great and all, but this guy pitches half his games in Texas, and two of the weakest-hitting teams in the AL both hit LHP pretty hard, so even road starts at KC and Seattle aren't gimme's. Grab a reliever instead for ratio help.

Luke Hochevar (reprise) | Kansas City | SP
YTD: 3.0 K/9, 0.9 K/BB, 5.60 ERA
True Talent: 5.2 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.96 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 4.60 ERA
Omaha (AAA) 2009 was the first time No. 1 overall pick Luke Hochvar really showed any of the promise people had seen before the draft. There, he was 5-1, 1.50, with a 36:12 K:BB ratio in 48 IP. If that helped Royals fans forget the 129 mediocre-to-bad innings in 2008, his first start (8 ER in 2.0 IP) against Oakland reminded them. The bad .753 RZR with just 81 OOZ plays by the KC infield makes it really hard on a guy with a 53% career GB% and very low K totals. So, outings like his most recent CG victory (1 ER) over the Reds will be uncommon. But there's enough here for an AL-only pickup; just don't go crazy.

David Huff | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 7.09 ERA
True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.97 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 Wins, 9 K, 4.73 ERA
2006 first-round pick David Huff didn't enter the Indians rotation with the fanfare of some other top prospects this year, largely because his fastball tops out around 92. And while we disapprove of throwing out data, his ERA is 4.44 if you write off his first two starts as “debut jitters.” He's not ready to make anyone forget CC Sabathia, but if he's spotted intelligently, he should be good for some across-the-board help in AL-only leagues.

Jed Lowrie | Boston | SS/3B
YTD: .056/.150/.056
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Jed Lowrie has some obstacles ahead before he becomes a viable fantasy alternative in any format, but his hand appears to be on the mend, and he'll soon be playing AAA ball again. He's not a better defender than Lugo, nor is he likely to out-hit the fluky stats Green has put up. But he's a switch-hitter, though he's only hit .210/.292/.323 vs. righties in his career. And his approach at the plate is more in line with the Red Sox organizational philosophy. He still appears to be the SS of the future in Boston, and now would be a good time to get him in a keeper league.

David Murphy | Texas | OF
YTD: .257/.340/.386
True Talent: .266/.330/.418
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .266 BA, 0.3 SB
For his career, David Murphy is a .280 hitter with a .460 slugging. By reputation, he's a good fielder, and most advanced fielding stats indicate he's right around average in the side fields, though he did post an exceptional .978 RZR in 2008, with +11 plays being made, per the BIS +/- system. Still, he's played in a couple great hitter's parks, and his “True Talent” is that of a 4th OF. Expect him to hit like TT projects, and to get extra AB without Hamilton around, but the team has too many OF options for him to get much more PT.

Tomo Ohka | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 2.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 4/24 ERA
True Talent: 4.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 5.24 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 4.99 ERA
Tomo Ohka has a career ERA of 4.14 and a FIP of 4.48 in over 1000 IP. He's just 33 this season, though it seems he's been around forever. Without any announced injuries, his velocity had dipped after the 2004 season, but it's back almost all the way to where it was (88.1 average FB, compared to just over 89 from 2002-2004). Modeling systems don't like him because he doesn't whiff batters or induce grounders, but he's death on the running game (35-33 career against him, outstanding for anyone, much less a RHP). It doesn't take much to be a top-five SP on the Indians, and the potential is here to get cheap help for an AL-only rotation.

Miguel Olivo | Kansas City | C
YTD: .245/.274/.470
True Talent: ..248/.279/.425
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, .254 BA, 0.3 SB
That Olivo has gotten 2373 PA in his career while carrying an OBP of .275 speaks volumes about the other parts of his game. He's not as fast as the seven SB in 317 PA in 2008 suggest, but otherwise, his stats have been remarkably consistent. And his defense is superb, so expect him to get about 2/3 of the playing time—unless Buck goes on a hot streak upon his return. Should be good for 10 more HR this year.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: NL

Colby Rasmus | St. Louis | OF
YTD: .271/.322/.469
True Talent: .254/.329/.430
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 4 Runs, 3 RBI, .255 BA, 0.6 SB
Patient keeper league owners may still own Rasmus, but plenty of others bailed after he put up a .662 and .703 OPS in April and May. Now that he's hitting .396/.396/.708 in June, those patient owners are reaping the rewards. The 22-year-old Rasmus has been the Cardinals' top prospect since they drafted him, and he should continue to improve. Always a slow starter, he displays blossoming power (.485 minor league SLG, with 64 HRs and 95 2Bs) and moderate speed (74 SB). He's still working on his plate selectivity (0.57 BB/K in minors, 0.32 in 2009), and True Talent doesn't think he's going to consolidate those gains this year. But that HR-SB potential makes him worth a pickup in NL leagues deeper than 10 teams, and mixed leagues deeper than 13 teams, along with any size keeper leagues.

Kevin Kouzmanoff | San Diego | 3B
YTD: .237/.285/.390
True Talent: .259/.307/.427
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .260 BA, 0.1 SB
The time when Kouzmanoff was highly touted has come and gone—a 0.24 BB/K will do that, especially matched with a SLG that cracked .450 just once. But Kouz has occasional surges, like the 35-game streak last season when he collected a hit in 29 games, putting up a .326/.342/.558 line. In that time, he also notched 31 Ks against just 3 BBs, so he didn't change his hack-and-slash ways. It's tough to succeed with that approach while hitting in PETCO behind Adrian Gonzalez, who often clears the bases for him. Kouz looks like he's heating up now, and True Talent shows that he'll improve, so ride him while you can, but watch for that dropoff. Nobody outside of 14-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 18 teams should think of him as a permanent addition.

Tony Gwynn, Jr. | San Diego | OF
YTD: .316/.416/.434
True Talent: .270/.338/.363
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 Runs, 1 RBI, .272 BA, 0.7 SB
A trade to the Padres gave the son of San Diego's all-time best hitter a chance to be a starter. What Junior lacks in hitting ability, he makes up for with speed, but it's not enough to make him as valuable as Dear Old Dad. True Talent shows you his BA is hollow, with a bit of patience (0.70 BB/K in the minors) and plenty of SB potential (152 in six minor-league seasons). Hitting atop a weak Padres lineup depresses his run totals, and he's got to reach base more often than True Talent predicts to be an effective leadoff hitter. He represents a good source of steals for leagues of all size, and he won't kill your BA, but he will sap your power ratios, and he won't keep hitting like this.

Ryan Church | New York | OF
YTD: .274/.339/.382
True Talent: .267/.344/.424
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 4 Runs, 4 RBI, .265 BA, 0.3 SB
Which Church is for real? The one who put up an OPS in the high 800s for Washington and New York, or the one who hit .224 in May? Likely, it's neither, but the guy in the middle isn't too shabby, either. True Talent is pessimistic, but Jerry Manuel isn't, making Church his starting RF. Church has responded with a .281/.378/.500 June, and he's shown the ability to maintain those streaks despite a career BB/K of 0.42. Don't be surprised to see him sit against LHP now and then—his career OPS is 122 points lower against them, a split that's widened to a whopping 307 in 2009—but he's worth a flier in 12-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 16 to see if those 800+ OPS numbers are for real.

Kevin Correia | San Diego | SP
YTD: 6.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.52 ERA
True Talent: 6.4 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.76 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 4.95 ERA
The Padres have won just four of their last 15, but Correia has two of those wins, so he has to be doing something right. He gave up just five ER in his last three starts, with 13 Ks and one BB, and his only loss came when King Felix pitched a CG shutout. PETCO hasn't helped him as much as you expect—his longball rate at home (1.2 HR/9) is slightly worse than on the road (1.0), but all of those PETCO homers were solo jobs. Whether that's by accident or design, it shows the fine line he walks between dominance and disaster; his True Talent numbers are all just on the sunny side of average. Expect that from Correia: decent but unspectacular numbers, with occasional blowups that may hurt you. Play with fire if you want in leagues deeper than 16-team mixed or 14-team NL, but remember that he's pitching for the punchless Pads.

Aaron Cook | Colorado | SP
YTD: 4.6 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.23 ERA
True Talent: 4.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.41 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 12.1 IP, 0.7 Wins, 6 K, 4.34 ERA
Cook was an All-Star last year, so how can he be hanging out on the waiver wire in 2009? He started the year with a 1-4 record and a 7.11 ERA, and so far he's doubled his home run rate to 1.2 HR/9 and increased his walk rate by 50% to 3.0 BB/9. He's turned that around, going 3-1 in his last three starts, with a 3.00 ERA and a 4.0 K/BB, but don't let the Ks fool you. Cook's a groundballer (57.8 GB% in 2009), not a strikeout artist, and his control is about as good as it's going to get. If you believe the Rockies are for real, Cook's going to collect more Ws going forward, so he's worth a pickup on that basis for 12-team NL leagues and mixed leagues of 14 teams or deeper. Just expect low K totals and an ERA around 4 to come with him.

Andrew Miller | Florida | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.56 ERA
True Talent: 7.7 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.44 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 Wins, 10 K, 4.69 ERA
Another young lefty from Florida, Miller's got a great fastball and a nice slider—and not much else. That's why he's got those sweet K numbers without a great ERA, and his control numbers show he's having trouble even with just those two pitches. True Talent tells you he's going to get better, but he won't get much better. There's always the chance that someone with a mid-90s heater will really bust out, and he's trying to develop a changeup and increase his GB% (down to 45.9 in 2008 after 49.3 in 2007), both of which will help him develop another dimension. For now, though, those Ks come at too heavy a price to consider Miller in mixed leagues shallower than 15 teams, or NL leagues shallower than 12 teams.

Jason Hammel | Colorado | SP
YTD: 6.4 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 4.10 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.64 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 4 K, 4.54 ERA
You might think that Hammel is just a product of Colorado's recent hot streak. Think again—he's won four of his last five with a K/BB ratio of 3.67 and a very nice 0.64 HR/9. That's key for a Rockies' pitcher, of course, and it's no coincidence that three of those four wins came on the road. At home, he's offering up gopher balls at a rate of 1.9 HR/9, compared to just 0.3 on the road. For his career, he surrenders them at a 1.3 rate, and those numbers came with Tampa Bay, also a tough home park for pitchers. So his relatively strong peripherals come with that huge asterisk. He remains a safe start on the road, but needs to ride your pine at home. If you can use him that way, he's worth a pickup in any mixed league deeper than 12 teams or 8-team NL leagues.

Jeremy Affeldt | San Francisco | RP
YTD: 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.71 ERA
True Talent: 7.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.16 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.15 ERA
If your league counts holds, you already know about Affeldt, who leads MLB in that category. But even if your league doesn't, Affeldt still holds some value. While his ERA exceeds True Talent predictions, his peripherals are more comparable, and Affeldt's always had strong career peripherals (6.9 K/BB, 1.71 K/BB, 0.8 HR/9). He's also first in line if Brian Wilson falters or gets hurt. Wilson's solid and is in no danger of losing his job, but Affeldt is an excellent insurance policy for Wilson owners, and is a very good addition to keep your K numbers strong, especially if those control numbers improve. He won't hurt any roster but is best suited to fill out pitching staffs in 10+ team NL leagues or mixed leagues deeper than 14 teams.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Prospect Breakdowns, Notes, and Additions - 6/18

Looking for more prospect info? Find out where every prospect fits into the The Hardball Times ongoing Top 100 Prospects List.

New Player Breakdowns

Michael Saunders / OF / Seattle / Triple-A / 11/19/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #26 / Low: #49 / This Week: +7
2009 Thoughts:
Saunders has come back masterfully from a shoulder injury that had sidelined him for the first month of the season. Look for a call up sometime this summer.
Average Year Projection:
.271 / .336 / 18 HR / 33 2B / 6 3B / 86 RBI / 86 R / 61 BB / 112 SO / 13 SB / 5 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.282 / .362 / 22 HR / 34 2B / 7 3B / 95 RBI / 93 R / 71 BB / 102 SO / 16 SB / 6 CS
Notes:
6/13/09 - Saunders is one of the few true potential 30/30 players in the high minors. He has the potential to hit .300 too. But I need to see more development before I believe any of it. I love his ability to recover from injuries, but his injury history is of concern heading forward. I don't think he'll reach his ultimate potential, but he has a bright future ahead of him.

Jhoulys Chacin / SP / Colorado / Double-A / 1/7/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #33 / Low: #35 / This Week: +1
2009 Thoughts:
Don't expect Colorado to be too aggressive with Chacin. They haven't been so far, and it has paid off. He may get a taste of Triple-A, but the Rockies certainly want to see even more success before he gets a glimpse of the majors.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/13/09 - Chacin's utterly dominant Advanced-A performance from last year hasn't exactly translated, but he is experiencing another strong season. He is still very young, and with another all-around uptick in his development he will join the absolute elite pitching prospects in the game.

Jeremy Hellickson / SP / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 4/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / High: #34 / Low: #35 / This Week: +1
2009 Thoughts:
I anticipate that Tampa will keep Hellickson in the high minors for the rest of the year so they can play it easy with his sprained shoulder. Tampa has that luxury due to their outstanding organizational rotation depth.
Average Year Projection:
190 IP / 3.79 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 180 SO / 180 H / 65 BB
Prime Year Projection:
199 IP / 3.33 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 204 SO / 181 H / 59 BB
Notes:
6/13/09 - Hellickson is well on his way to returning to the mound after sustaining a shoulder sprain in early May. He is not in David Price's class, but he sports three strong pitches - a low-90s fastball along with a changeup and curveball that have the potential to be plus pitches. Everything could eventually add up to Hellickson dealing like an ace. His great minor league career seems to indicate as much.

New Prospect Notes

Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta
6/13/09 - The Braves couldn't hold back any longer. Hanson has made two major league starts, neither one all that impressive; although, in his latest outing he was able to overcome five walks on his way to allowing only two runs over five and two-thirds innings. The strikeouts are there and, long-term, I have zero worries about two tough outings to start his career.

Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland
6/13/09 - LaPorta is back in Triple-A doing his thing. Expect him to be back with the Indians sometime this summer.

Madison Bumgarner / SP / San Francisco
6/13/09 - His Double-A stint has been every bit as dominating as I expected. Keep it up, Mad Man.

David Price/ SP / Tampa Bay
6/13/09 - His four-game big league stint has been a mixed bag. He has shown tremendous competitiveness and tenacity, resulting in only five earned runs in nineteen innings of work. But his control issues are still there, and, frankly, they scare me. Stay tuned.

Travis Snider / OF / Toronto
6/13/09 - Snider was sent down to Triple-A Las Vegas in late May. He put up some lackluster stats over the period of a week before heading to the DL due to a bad back. Right now, it's hard to get a gauge on the extent of the injury. Here's to hoping that some news is on its way.

Jarrod Parker / SP / Arizona
6/13/09 - A recent bout of walks brought some of his stats back to human level. Hopefully his most recent outing, where he didn't issue a walk and K'd nine batters over six innings, is a sign that the roadblock is behind him.

Jesus Montero / C/1B / NY Yankees
6/13/09 - Montero was promoted to Double-A recently, to mixed results. Essentially, he has been catching then DHing off and on all year. It will be interesting to see whether that trend continues or if he will slowly get more playing time behind the plate. It's the hope that he will stay at catcher that has him riding this high on my board.

Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City
6/13/09 - Moustakas' game has stagnated a bit over the last few weeks. Most importantly, his plate discipline hasn't progressed the way I was expecting. Last year's breakout came during the second half of the year, though. We'll see what happens this summer.

Tim Alderson / SP / San Francisco
6/13/09 - Alderson has been downright dominant over the last month. He gets a boost accordingly. All he is missing is the premium strikeout numbers. They may not be far away.

Angel Villalona / 1B / San Francisco
6/13/09 - Where is your plate discipline, Angel? He was showing signs of a dramatically improved approach at the plate in April, but things have dropped off since then. He needs to get his focus back on track.

Jordan Zimmermann / SP / Washington
6/13/09 - Zimmermann's big league performance has fallen off, but not off the cliff. His strikeouts and strikeout to walk ratio have been impressive. Look for his ERA to catch up.

Gordon Beckham / SS/3B / Chicago White Sox
6/13/09 - Beckham has pushed himself all the way to the big leagues in a short period of time. Unfortunately, his 28 at-bats have only resulted in two hits. Even more concerning, it looks like the White Sox might be serious about keeping him at third base.

Michael Stanton / OF / Florida
6/13/09 - It's time to start really paying attention. Stanton is getting his shot at Double-A pitching. So far his bat has been quiet, but for how long? It's exciting seeing his huge power potential on display against good secondary stuff.

Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida
6/13/09 - Morrison is back, and it looks like he hasn't missed a beat. Watch his Double-A development closely.

Neftali Feliz / SP/RP / Texas
6/13/09 - His walk rate is starting to slow, but so is his strikeout rate. Feliz is always unpredictable. Combine that fact with his electric stuff and you have one of the more exciting pitchers in minor league baseball. In Feliz's case that's not a good thing. Pennant-chasing Texas wants consistency before they hand him a slot in their rotation.

Brian Matusz / SP / Baltimore
6/13/09 - He has been the most dominant Advanced-A pitcher in recent weeks. When is the promotion coming? I'm salivating.

Hector Rondon / SP / Cleveland
6/13/09 - Rondon's bullpen assignment didn't last long, but his last two starts have been lackluster. Is it a bump in the road or a true trend?

New Players Added to the Bubble

Zach Stewart
Derek Norris
Vincent Mazzaro
Matthew Moore
Logan Forsythe
Chris Withrow
Evan Anundsen
Sean Rodriguez
Eric Arnett
Kasey Kiker
Tony Sanchez
James Darnell
Wily Peralta

Posted by Matt Hagen at 9:42pm

Sell on the news: Nick Green

Yesterday, Boston SS Nick Green went 1-for-3 to raise his average to .293. He now has a line on the season of 293/.344/.442.

Those numbers are unlikely to last. Entering this season, Green had a career line in the majors of .240/.309/.347, and he hadn't appeared substantially since 2006. As a 29-year-old in Triple-A last year, Green batted .233/.285/.373; his career Triple-A line is .268/.318/.434.

Key number: 22%. That's Green's K/AB, and it bodes ill for a healthy BA. I looked at all player-seasons from 2006-08 of >200 AB and K% between 20-25%. The aggregate BA is .270. And the batters in this group were collectively stronger than Green (192 IsoSLG for pool vs. 149 IsoSLG for Green), which suggests that Green's BA would fall on the low side of that .270.

Heater has a YTD OPS rank for Green (among AL SS) of #7 but a "True" rank of #14 (and True BA of .242). It would be ideal to sell him now while he is getting regular playing time.

Posted by John Burnson at 10:15am

Dumping

Now's about the time of the year when, if you stand on your tippy-toes and squint into the distance, you may see a distant competitor running far ahead of you in saves (or home runs or wins). You're sitting in last place, or close to it, in a particular category, and you're thinking about dumping it (I'll keep referring to saves here, but feel free to replace with your chosen stat). Life would be so much easier if you only had to care about nine categories instead of 10. You could stop trolling the waiver wire for distant princes who are waiting to be promoted to kings of their bullpens after their betters lose their heads. You could trade Mike MacDougal and plug that gap in your outfield that has been leaving you with a itch at night because it mars what would otherwise be a flawless set of batters.

Should you dump that category and free your mind? There are several things to consider first. However, it bears writing right now: this isn't about playing for next year. This is about playing for this year, and I'm assuming that you didn't start the season using a strategy which neglected the stat. This also mostly concerns rotisserie leagues. Points leagues and head-to-head leagues involve different kinds of calculations (it doesn't really even make sense to talk about "dropping a category" in points leagues—points are points)

How far behind are you?
Obviously, the further behind you are in the stat, the harder it will be to catch up. I've left the question intentionally vague though: perhaps one or two competitors are not that far ahead of you, but the pack (the peloton if you're riding a bike) is further.

Why are you in last place?
Did you place your hopes on Kerry Wood and have been a victim of bad luck? Has the injury bug bitten you and your Joakim Soria? Are you stuck with some lemons like B.J. Ryan? Much as in running long distances, it is tempting to feel yourself slowly falling behind more and more (note that this is a statement about your velocity, the rate at which you acquiring saves, and not about how far back you are), and give up hope of ever catching up.

With way more than a half season left to play, though, there's a lot of time for luck to turn. Now, just because you've had bad luck, it doesn't mean you're due for good luck. So if you have some Wood-ies or Sorias on your team, you should just count on them returning to their expected rate, perhaps 1.5 saves per week or so (on the high end). Is this enough to bring you back into the pack or perhaps catch a few stragglers? The key here is to figure out whether you have the pieces on your team already. In other words, do you have Soria or do you have Ryan?

Are there other teams with spare parts or needs?
If you decide to dump saves but you have a reliever or two of some value, is there a team (or, much better, several teams) that needs saves? Does that team have a player that can help you in some other category that you think you could get in a trade? Clearly it would be better to sell your unwanted items on Ebay rather than simply put them in the trash for anyone to find for free.

On the other hand, while you are deciding whether to dump saves, you should also see if there's a team that would be willing to give you saves for one of your spare parts (or someone that you could afford to trade). Maybe another team just got Soria back from injury but already has enough closers or maybe another team is also thinking of dumping saves.

How are you doing in other categories?
Say, for example, you are leading in all the other categories but are last in saves. The only possible gain from dumping saves would then be to increase your lead in some of these other categories. But there are no rotisserie points to be had. Dumping saves in this instance isn't particularly helpful.
Obviously the flip side is if you're in the pack in, say, wins and a few extra could land you many points.

Knock-on effects?
How will dumping saves affect your other categories? Will you be trading a reliever who helps (Jonathan Broxton) or hurts your ERA (Matt Capps)? The collateral damage from dropping home runs on your RBI and runs stats would probably be huge. But dumping wins, if done carefully, might help you with strikeouts, ERA and WHIP.

What category is it?
I haven't much differentiated between categories yet, but there is a difference when it comes to dumping (besides knock-on effects). If you're dumping saves and you get rid of all your relievers, you are not going to get any more saves for the rest of the season. So if you are in last place now, in last place you shall stay.

When it comes to dumping, say, batting average, things are slightly different: there's passive dumping and active dumping. Passive dumping means that you stop actively trying to catch up in the category. You're a bit or more behind in batting average but you decide not to trade for Kevin Youkilis in order to catch up. Active dumping means trading away a Kevin Youkilis in exchange for an Adam Dunn or Jay Bruce, explicitly eating the lower average in exchange for better power production.

For saves, passive dumping doesn't make much sense. If you're way behind and it isn't due to bad luck, then you aren't likely to catch up by playing your same, poor relievers. However, with the average stats, passive dumping and active dumping may each have their own logic. If you're sitting at .265 on the season, passive dumping probably means staying about there, whereas active dumping might mean going down to .250. If you're at .265, other teams might pass you on their way down, but that's a lot less likely if you've already fallen to .250. Unlike saves (sort of), standing still can sometimes mean moving up.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 2:58am

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

Scott Downs update

As suggested earlier today, Jays closer Scott Downs will indeed be placed on the DL (h/t Rotoworld). Jason Frasor remains waiver wire target number one.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:25pm

Go get Frasor

Blue Jays closer Scott Downs limped off the field last night, and while x-rays were negative, MLB.com's Jordan Bastian says that "there is a realistic chance Downs will wind up on the disabled list." You know what that means, fantasy nation. Go chase down Jason Frasor on your league's waiver wire!

There's a chance former closer B.J. Ryan would be the choice if Downs were to miss time, but I'd put my money on Frasor. Better skills, better surface numbers, used in much higher leverage situations (1.42 gmLI compared to 0.85 for Ryan). In the interest of full disclosure, I snatched him up in the KFFL Expert League I'm playing in with fellow THT writer Eriq Gardner.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:17pm

Burriss demoted, Downs recalled

The Giants demoted 2B Emmanuel Burriss yesterday and recalled IF Matt Downs from Triple-A. Downs batted eighth in last night's game, but he seems to have decent power, pretty good speed, and could post a solid enough batting average. You could do a lot worse in an NL-only league.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:15pm

Placido Polanco

Yesterday, Detroit 2B Placido Polanco went 1-for-5, lowering his average on the season to .260.

From 2006-08, Polanco batted .316. Not unexpectedly given the drop in BA, Polanco's LD% this year is down, to 17.6%, from an aggregate rate over 21% over the last three seasons. His HR/FB is also down, to 1.3%, from a three-year rate of 4.5%. These are discouraging signs for the 33-year-old, especially since they could be construed as the continuation of a downward trend from 2007; on the other hand, Polanco did bat .309 in the second half last year.

The key number is 7%; that's Polanco's rate of K/AB. A low K% doesn't ensure a high BA, but it's certainly a favorable tailwind.

In light of three successive months of sub-.280 BA, you'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who expects Polanco to rebound; however, he has brighter prospects than many $1 2B's who are currently rostered.

Posted by John Burnson at 1:47pm (0) Comments

Worst Monday: Week 2 results

So let's see: The four big-league teams playing Monday combined for 42 runs. Up for grabs were 13 home runs (split among 12 players) and even 5 steals. Of 40 batters, 32 got at least one hit, and 20 got at least one RBI.

In other words, it was a day on which it would be hard for a fantasy team to slip into the negatives... unless the only player whom you trotted out was one David Thomas Bush:

       IP   ER  BB  HB   K   Pts
       ===  ==  ==  ==  ==   ====
Bush   3.1   8   2   2   2   -5.7

As winner Joshua Lapo notes, Bush's score would have been even lower if the Brewers hadn't spared him the "L."

For his effort, Josh wins a year's subscription to Heater Magazine. Josh is now also the current season leader in Worst Mondays; if he can hold that title until the end of the season, he will get a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Thanks to everyone who entered. Worse luck next week!

Posted by John Burnson at 10:00am (0) Comments

More on the LIPS/FIP discrepancy

On Monday, I examined two ERA estimators, FIP and LIPS, and discussed the pitchers who have been most undervalued or overvalued by FIP so far this year. For my discussion on the shortcomings of FIP, be sure to check out that article. For an explanation of LIPS, check out David Gassko's primer from yesterday.

As a couple of readers pointed out, while almost all of the players on my list from Monday had abnormally high or low HR/FB rates (which is to be expected since FIP doesn't normalize HR/FB), there were a few pitchers who saw a big disparity between FIP and LIPS yet had completely normal HR/FB rates. How could this be?

The answer is that while the biggest difference between LIPS and FIP is the fact that LIPS normalizes HR/FB, LIPS also takes into account a few other things that FIP does not. So today, I'm going to look at a few of the starting pitchers with at least 40 innings pitched and at least a 0.50 LIPS/FIP difference and examine why this difference exists.

2009 - SP with largest differences between LIPS and FIP

+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+------+----------+----------+-------+
| LAST        | FIRST      | G  | GS | IP    | ERA  | FIP  | LIPS ERA | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+------+----------+----------+-------+
| Hammel      | Jason A    | 12 |  9 |  54.0 | 4.33 | 3.99 |     4.94 |     0.95 |    11 |
| Cook        | Aaron      | 13 | 13 |  76.0 | 4.26 | 4.70 |     5.41 |     0.71 |    15 |
| Halladay    | Roy        | 14 | 14 | 103.0 | 2.53 | 2.62 |     3.25 |     0.63 |    10 |
| Beckett     | Josh       | 12 | 12 |  76.3 | 3.77 | 3.53 |     4.14 |     0.61 |    10 |
| Buehrle     | Mark       | 12 | 12 |  80.7 | 3.24 | 4.15 |     4.76 |     0.61 |    11 |
| Cabrera     | Daniel A   |  9 |  8 |  40.0 | 5.85 | 6.36 |     6.95 |     0.59 |    10 |
| Hampton     | Mike       | 12 | 12 |  67.0 | 4.70 | 4.64 |     5.22 |     0.58 |    13 |
| Floyd       | Gavin C    | 13 | 13 |  82.0 | 4.94 | 3.79 |     4.29 |     0.50 |    10 |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+------+----------+----------+-------+
| Slowey      | Kevin      | 13 | 13 |  78.7 | 4.23 | 4.09 |     3.57 |    -0.52 |    11 |
| Young       | Chris      | 13 | 13 |  73.7 | 4.76 | 5.13 |     4.16 |    -0.97 |    11 |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+------+----------+----------+-------+

Note: For continuity's sake, these numbers haven't been update since Monday's article.

Jason Hammel - Worse than FIP indicates

Hammel has the largest negative difference between FIP and LIPS so far in 2009, and I can see two primary reasons for this.

1) Hammel pitches for the Rockies and, therefore, in Coors Field. As Coors inflates run scoring by 9.3 percent, this will have a large impact on Hammel's numbers that FIP simply ignores.
2) Hammel's infield fly ball rate (2.7 percent) is lower than league average (3.9 percent).

Aaron Cook - Worse than FIP indicates

.
Cook is interesting in that his LIPS ERA is worse than his FIP, yet his FIP is being driven by an abnormal 15 percent HR/FB. If you were to normalize the HR/FB and apply the FIP formula, the difference would actually be even larger (his xFIP is 4.31, a 1.10 difference from LIPS).

Like Jason Hammel, being a Rockie has a lot to do with this. The run-scoring in Coors obviously has a big effect as these are the top two guys on the list. In addition, Cook's infield fly ball rate is a measly 0.4 percent compared to a league average of 3.9 percent. As he allows a ton of balls in play to begin with, the effect is amplified.

Roy Halladay - Worse than FIP indicates

Halladay's difference is being driven by the same two factors as Cook.

1) The Rogers Centre inflates run scoring by 3.1 percent.
2) His infield fly ball rate (2.7 percent) is lower than league average (3.9 percent).

Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd - Worse than FIP indicates

Both induce fewer infield flies than average and both call hitter-friendly U.S. Cellular home.

Chris Young - Better than FIP indicates

Chris Young has the most extreme LIPS/FIP difference of any pitcher in baseball this year, whether under or overvalued. Three factors are driving this:

1) PETCO reduces run scoring by 7.7 percent.
2) He induces more than twice as many infield flies (7.7 percent) than league average (3.9 percent).
3) He hits fewer batters (0.24 per 9) than league average (0.35 per 9)

Kevin Slowey - Better than FIP indicates

Slowey's difference is being driven primarily by two factors.

1) He induces a lot of infield flies (6.5 percent), and because his strikeout ability is merely average-ish, the raw number of infield flies is pretty high.
2) His line drive rate (21 percent) is higher than league average (19.1 percent). Because he's letting up too many line drives, he isn't inducing as many groundballs, pop-ups, and fly balls as he should be, all of which do less damage than line drives.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am

The great strikeout debate (Part II)

About a month ago I introduced the idea that the common measure of strikeout ability for pitchers, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9), is flawed and suggested a better measure which I named True K percentage. True K percentage is different from K/9 in that its baseline is at-bats instead of outs. It is also different from strikeout percentage (K%) in that walks are filtered out of the equation because I believe control and strikeout ability are two unrelated skills for the most part.

To get a better understanding of why some of these decisions were made the way they were, I encourage you to read over the first "Strikeout debate" article and the accompanying comments.

As another refresher, here are the exact formulas I am using:

K/9 = (K * 9) / IP

K% = (K / TBF) * 100

True K% = (K / K + BIP) * 100

Now that were have discussed the pros and cons of all three strikeout measures—K/9, K%, True K%—in a theoretical sense, let's roll out the numbers for each pitcher and see who they disagree on. The following chart shows the top 25 starters for each measure in 2009, with a minimum of five games started (165 starting pitchers qualify).

           K/9                            K%                          True K%
   1 Rich Harden         11.23    Javier Vazquez     31.16%    Rich Harden        34.64%
   2 Javier Vazquez      11.21    Justin Verlander   30.37%    Justin Verlander   33.76%
   3 Justin Verlander    11.05    Rich Harden        28.97%    Javier Vazquez     33.65%
   4 Jon Lester          10.62    Tim Lincecum       28.14%    Jon Lester         31.58%
   5 Tim Lincecum        10.53    Jon Lester         27.83%    Johan Santana      30.95%
   6 Johan Santana       10.37    Johan Santana      27.58%    Tim Lincecum       30.93%
   7 Jake Peavy          10.14    Jake Peavy         27.46%    Jake Peavy         30.77%
   8 Jorge de la Rosa     9.62    Zack Greinke       26.43%    Chad Billingsley   29.61%
   9 Jordan Zimmermann    9.47    Dan Haren          25.50%    Jorge de la Rosa   28.57%
  10 Chad Billingsley     9.46    Chad Billingsley   25.50%    Jordan Zimmermann  28.04%
  11 Daisuke Matsuzaka    9.29    Jordan Zimmermann  24.90%    Zack Greinke       27.87%
  12 Max Scherzer         9.27    Jorge de la Rosa   24.49%    Max Scherzer       27.82%
  13 Zack Greinke         9.25    Erik Bedard        23.99%    Yovani Gallardo    27.80%
  14 David Purcey         9.12    Max Scherzer       23.96%    Clayton Kershaw    27.56%
  15 Josh Beckett         8.96    Yovani Gallardo    23.91%    Dan Haren          27.44%
  16 Erik Bedard          8.91    Josh Beckett       23.24%    David Purcey       27.08%
  17 Jonathan Sanchez     8.89    Felix Hernandez    23.20%    Erik Bedard        27.08%
  18 Yovani Gallardo      8.88    Clayton Kershaw    22.79%    Edinson Volquez    26.86%
  19 Felix Hernandez      8.86    Wandy Rodriguez    22.73%    Josh Beckett       26.48%
  20 Clayton Kershaw      8.72    Roy Halladay       21.78%    Jonathan Sanchez   26.42%
  21 Dan Haren            8.62    David Purcey       21.67%    Joba Chamberlain   25.66%
  22 Edinson Volquez      8.52    Edinson Volquez    21.56%    Felix Hernandez    25.61%
  23 Wandy Rodriguez      8.47    Randy Johnson      21.48%    Wandy Rodriguez    25.51%
  24 Oliver Perez         8.31    Josh Johnson       21.33%    Randy Johnson      24.71%
  25 Joba Chamberlain     8.24    Jered Weaver       21.23%    A.J. Burnett       24.54%

As you can tell by looking across the rows and finding different pitchers, there are significant differences for a lot of them. Even the best strikeout pitcher is questioned with K/9 and True K% saying it is Rich Harden while K% likes Javier Vazquez.

Since we understand the formulas behind the three, we know why some pitchers are ranked higher in some than in others. A pitcher like Dan Haren will be ranked more highly by K% since he walks very few batters. And Oliver Perez has the greatest difference in K% and True K% because of his 8.72 BB/9 rate.

But what type of pitchers are ranked most different between K/9 and True K%? It is harder to define the type of pitcher so lets look at those with the biggest gaps.

The five pitchers with the greatest differential between their K/9 and True K% ranked higher by True K% are:

The five pitchers with the greatest difference between their K/9 and True K% ranked lower by True K% are:

I was not exactly sure of the relationship between these pitchers until I had finished the list of pitchers that are ranked lower, and I realized that all of those pitchers had terrible starts with the exception of Slowey. Then I began thinking what caused their poor performance and realized BABIP had a lot to do with it. Checking out their BABIPs, I found that even Slowey has an unlucky BABIP of .351 and the group as a whole has an average mark of .406.

Then it was easy to realize the first group, those ranked higher, must have relatively low BABIPs. I was right; their collective average BABIP is .249, led by Carpenter's .210 mark.

If you think about it this should make sense that the difference is BABIP-dependent since for True K% you are dividing by all balls in play while in K/9 you are only dividing by those balls in play that go for outs. The difference between all balls in play and balls in play that become outs is balls in play that become do not become outs—or what you would otherwise call hits. And hits are the driving force between a high or low BABIP.

My next thought was that the pitchers whose rank is about the same for both measures True K% and K/9 would have BABIPs about league-average .300. That also turned out true as the 11 pitchers with no change in rank averaged a BABIP of .307.

This best shows how True K% is superior to K/9 because True K% is not wrongly affected by BABIP, which as far as I am aware of, is not something that should have any effect on a pitcher's strikeout rate.

You should not think of True K% as an attempt to predict K/9, you should use True K to completely replace K/9. After seeing the numbers for the first time, I began wondering how many times I must have quoted a pitcher's decreased K/9 rate as the reason for his problems when really it was poor BABIP luck showing up again in his strikeout rate.

The main practical use of True K% that you can identify some pitchers whose perception of their skills is incorrect, making them good trade targets. In the next article, I will get a spreadsheet up of the True K% numbers for all pitchers over the last few seasons and point out some specific pitchers whose perception of their strikeout ability may be off because of a difference in their K/9 and True K numbers. Now I will turn over the floor to any of your thoughts...

Thank you to Fangraphs for data and Derek for discussing the True K formula with me.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:55am

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Greene to third

While nothing in Khalil Greene's first season as a Cardinal has gone right so far—having lost his starting job, getting DL'ed for a social anxiety disorder—there is now a glimmer of hope for the 29 year old shortstop's season as the Cardinals are going to send him back down to the minors to learn third base, the position he played in college (h/t Rob Neyer).

Greene most likely was not going to be able to win back the starting shortstop job from Brendan Ryan, but as long as the Cards do not go out and acquire a new third baseman, Khalil has a decent shot of winning playing time at third over the disappointing Joe Thurston and coincidental last name sharer Tyler Greene.

In NL-Only leagues Greene is worth keeping an eye on when he returns to the majors as he could begin playing like his 2007 self, when he blasted 27 home runs.

Posted by Paul Singman at 6:39pm

Sell on the news: Casey McGehee

Yesterday, Brewers infielder Casey McGehee had three hits for the second straight game. With 12 hits in his last 21 AB, McGehee in eight days has raised his BA from .265 to .357.

It won't last. McGehee's BA is now 60 points above his highest previous BA at any level. His career-high BA is .297, posted in 2005 at Double-A. McGehee did bat .296/.345/.429 last year in Triple-A, at age 25. But in line with his minor-league history, he struck out twice as often as he walked, whereas thus far with Milwaukee he has 10 BB to 12 K. He has inconsequential speed (1.6 SB per 162 games in the minors).

Heater lists McGehee's "True" batting line as .257/.318/.378, and we rank him as the 18th-best NL second baseman in predicted OPS. Obviously, he'd rank a bit lower at 3B. With only 70 AB to his name, his BA could plummet quickly with a cold streak, so start dangling him.

Posted by John Burnson at 10:29am (0) Comments

Explaining LIPS

It’s been almost four years since I first tried to devise a defense-independent pitching metric that incorporated batted ball data. I was inspired, then, by Voros McCracken’s articles on DIPS, both the original where he showed that pitchers appear to have little control over the results of balls put into play against them, and his follow-up, where Voros examined various improvements that could be made to DIPS, one of which was to incorporate batted ball data.

For years, I’ve been tinkering with various ways to do just that. The first incarnation of this statistic I called DIPS 3.0 (since Voros had already released two versions), but since I’ve switched to LIPS, which stands for “Luck Independent Pitching Statistics.” See, in my research I have found that not only do pitchers have little control over the results of their balls in play, but they also have little control over the number of home runs they allow, outside of their flyball or groundball tendencies. I repeat: Outside of forcing ground balls, an ability by the way, which is very persistent, there is little a pitcher can do to prevent home runs.

In light of this, we must re-assess Voros’ spectrum of what a pitcher can and cannot control. Rather than giving a pitcher credit for his strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, and home runs and ignoring everything else as Voros did, we want to give him credit for his strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitch, infield flies, outfield flies, and ground balls, while ignoring or adjusting everything else. At this point, we are not just removing defense from the equation, but luck itself, which is why I eventually changed the name of my statistic from “DIPS 3.0” to “LIPS.”

So how do we calculate LIPS? It’s a complicated process, one which has undergone many revisions, so in the interest of making it clear to all, I thought I’d show you through an example, using Rich Harden as my guinea pig (note that I haven’t updated my database in about a week, so these stats are a bit dated):

Harden has allowed 10 infield flies, 35 outfield flies, 23 line drives, 41 ground balls, and 6 bunts. Because we know that a pitcher has little or no control over his line drive rate, we replace Harden’s line drive rate with the league average and adjust the rest of his batted ball numbers accordingly. Rounding, that leaves us with 10 infield flies, 36 outfield flies, 22 line drives, 42 ground balls, and 6 bunts. Basically, there’s no change for Harden specifically, though other pitchers may see big variations. (Also note that BIS actually breaks out another category for us, called a “fliner,” which is something between a fly ball and a line drive. In the actual LIPS calculations, these are treated as a separate category, but for simplicity, I’ve lumped them in with fly balls and line drives here.)
We now multiply all of Harden’s transformed batted ball statistics by the league average outcome rates for each. So if the average National League pitcher allows 0.21 singles per ground ball, we calculate that Harden will allow 0.21*42 = 8.8 ground ball singles. Do that for every outcome and every batted ball type and you get a predicted pitching line. In this case we predict that, independent of luck, Harden would have allowed about 23 singles, 7 doubles, 1 triple, 4 home runs, and 1 reached on error. His actual line is, 23 singles, 8 doubles, 0 triples, 8 home runs, and 1 reached on error. You can see that the two lines match in just about everything except for home runs. (We also predict outs on balls in play and double plays using the same method, by the way.)
Next, we adjust Harden’s strikeout, walk, and hit-by-pitch numbers for park. This is done because all of the numbers we derive in step (2) are park neutral, and we don’t want to mix apples and oranges, or in this case, park-adjusted stats with non-park-adjusted stats. Harden doesn’t see much change here, going from 53 strikeouts, 21 walks, and 2 hit-by-pitch to 52 strikeouts, 21 walks, and 2 hit-by-pitch.
Now we throw the results of steps (2) and (3) into the BaseRuns formula. You can read more about BaseRuns here, but the basic idea is that it is the most accurate, least biased run estimator around. At this point, we know how many runs we expected Harden to allow, which in this case is 16.
We now adjust step (4) for park factor—in the reverse. Our estimated runs allowed are park neutral, but we want them to be directly comparable to ERA. Therefore, we multiply by the park factor instead of dividing as you do when trying to make a statistic park neutral. Harden’s estimated runs allowed are increased four percent, as Wrigley Field is a hitter’s park, yielding a new estimate of 17 runs
We estimate luck independent innings pitched by adding together the number of expected outs and double plays we got in step (2) with the adjusted strikeouts we got in step (3), and dividing by three. We get 41 luck-neutral innings pitched.
We divide step (6) by step (5), and multiply by 9. Without rounding, the result is 3.63 runs per nine innings.
Finally, we estimate how many unearned runs Harden should have allowed based on his ground ball rate, which has a very high correlation with unearned runs. We find that around 93 percent of Harden’s runs are expected to be earned, yielding a LIPS of 3.39.

That’s the basic process. OK, I understand that it’s anything but basic, but I hope my explanation was simple enough for all to follow. Every step is based on thorough research, a lot of which you can read in The Hardball Times Annual 2007 if you so desire, but otherwise you’ll have to take my word for it. LIPS takes the luck out of pitching statistics better than any other such stat I’ve ever read about, and that’s why we use it so often here at THT Fantasy.

If you have any questions, fire away in the comments section and I’ll try to answer them as best I can.

Posted by David Gassko at 3:30am

How to deal with a rabble-rouser like Ron Shandler

If you’re lucky enough to be near the top of the standings in your league, you probably haven’t spent a lot of time considering those who are unfortunate to be near the bottom. But you should.

Last week, on subscription Website BaseballHQ, Ron Shandler posted a column entitled: “How to make enemies and influence pennant races.”

In the piece, Shandler talked about going into the 2009 season in one of his expert keeper leagues with a strategy to punt the year in the interest of rebuilding for 2010. Heading into the draft this year, he only kept players whose contracts would be desirable the following spring. During the draft, he built a large reserve of high-ceiling prospects. And when things didn’t go exactly as planned to start this season, he e-mailed the league to let everybody know that his best players, including Carl Crawford and Ryan Howard, would soon be dealt for attractive keepers.

Dump trades can be an irritating but inevitable aspect of keeper leagues, but Shandler took things a step further: After receiving some offers, he then upped the ante by sending out another e-mail that publicized in full detail all of them—inviting league members to step up to the plate and win the competition for his players with full knowledge of what everyone in the league was offering.

Unfortunately, in many fantasy leagues and particularly in keeper ones, those who are out of competition can, as Shandler’s column title accurately puts it, influence pennant races.

Not every hard-luck team is a rabble-rouser like Mr. Shandler either. Some can shake up the competitive balance of the league in more subtle ways.

Consider the team who falls out of competition, loses interest, and fails to make basic lineup adjustments like replacing an injured player in the active lineup. That team’s neglect may amount to free points and standings gain for some teams who under normal circumstances might languish.

Other teams may do things much more drastic like cutting a good player out of spite.

In short, any team that loses hope becomes prone to irrational roster moves, rash trading behavior, and unbecoming conduct that dampens the competitive security of those who are in the lead.

Successful teams need to take time to consider how to deal with the less fortunate.

In some instances, this requires, yes, charity.

If I’m doing well enough in the standings and I see a player on waivers who I can’t use, but I know this player might help one of the struggling teams, I might tactfully point it out to the team. (Besides, a good player that’s added to the last-place team’s roster doesn’t get taken by your nearest competitor.)

Also, I try not to go into trade negotiations with a struggling team with the idea that I’m going to rip them off and rob them of any competitive hopes. First, being generous makes a potential deal more likely. Second, the strategy raises the bar on negotiations between the struggling team and other competitors. And lastly, I want to mitigate the risk that a struggling team’s further performance decline becomes beneficial and advantageous to other teams.

Sometimes, however, being nice won’t do the trick.

Some stubborn teams have given up hope and wish to have some fun and excitement at the expense of others. What to do? Challenge their pride? Organize some sort of collective action against the trouble-maker? Sink to their level and become the beneficiary of the league’s king-maker?

It often depends on circumstance.

In Shandler’s case, he is, no doubt, a rabble-rouser, but at least he’s got his team at heart.

If I’m playing in his league, I don’t ignore him. Being non-cooperative can only result in ending up as the loser. Dealing with Shandler becomes the only choice.

Playing Shandler's game by Shandler's rules, however, is a completely different story. In next week's column, I'll be delving into some classic game theory to try to figure out a strategy that counters Shandler's gambit.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 3:02am (17) Comments

Worst Monday: Balloting open

Once again, we're looking for the online fantasy leaguer with the most aggravating Monday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December. (Our debut winner, and current season leader, put up -4.5 points.)

Entering's a snap:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

We'll sift through the entries and announce the winner on Wednesday. Let's hear from all you owners of Dave Bush, Carl Pavano, and Barry Zito! Counselors are standing by....

Posted by John Burnson at 3:00am (2) Comments

Roster Doctor - 6/16/09

Normally we post a full roster and give advice based on what we see. But let's cut to the chase this time.

One reader writes an e-mail with the subject line: "Dear Lord Do I Need Help."

I question why this reader is asking for my divine help after he clearly has cut a deal with the devil. How else to explain a roster comprised of this All-Star injury list: Jose Reyes, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Quentin, Joey Votto?

The reader asks: "So, I have six bench spots and five of them are occupied by players on the DL with no set timetables on when they may return and then there is Denard Span, who seems to have wandered into the same Mystery Spot that Votto did and so one can only imagine when he will resume playing. I know that 3/5 of my starting rotation is rather mediocre at best and would like to improve it, but what I can realistically expect to get back for any of the players currently on the DL?"

Personally, I wouldn't give much for any of these players—too much risk involved—but I'm betting you'll still get a decent return. At very least, you should be able to get a starting pitcher who has struggled out of the gate, but whose fortunes may rise. According to data, players like Quentin and Hamilton have recently netted pitchers like Jon Lester, Roy Oswalt, John Lackey, Rich Harden, Francisco Liriano, and Josh Beckett.

We see that Jose Reyes and Joey Votto are commanding a bit more. Maybe it's because teams expect them back sooner. Regardless, these players have been netting pitchers like Dan Haren, Cole Hamels, Carlos Zambrano, Josh Johnson, and even Johan Santana.

With this many injuries, in a weekly H2H league, it's imperative to deal quickly and upgrade where you can. Put all your injured superstars on the block, announce you want to trade at least two of them for great pitchers, and take the best offers. Sit on the remaining superstars and hope you can squeak by in time for a playoff push.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:30am (3) Comments

Monday, June 15, 2009

Sell on the news: Bergesen

On Sunday, Bradley Bergesen earned his fourth Win of the season against only two Losses. The 23-year-old posted a complete-game five-hitter over Atlanta.

Bergesen's success disguises base rates that are being flattened as he rises through the ranks:

      Lvl   K/9  K/BB
      ===   ===  ====
2007  A     6.5   4.2
2008  AA    4.4   2.7
2009  MLB   4.2   1.9

Bergesen's ERA now sits at 3.79. However, his LIPS ERA is above 4.50, and his "True Talent" ERA (per Heater Magazine) is a run higher still. Fortunate owners should be working the phones.

Posted by John Burnson at 2:49pm (0) Comments

Using FIP to evaluate pitchers? I wouldn’t

Is Derek Lowe the most overvalued pitcher in baseball this year? If you're looking at FIP he is. (Icon/SMI)

I've seen a lot of articles popping up recently that attempt to evaluate pitchers using the FIP statistic. While the original, underlying premise for FIP is sound, and while it's absolutely better to use than simple ERA, and while there are certainly uses for FIP in some circumstances, for 99 percent of fantasy purposes, I ignore FIP completely and absolutely.

What is FIP?

FIP is a statistic that attempts to estimate what a pitcher's ERA would be based on his peripheral statistics—or rather, the peripheral statistics originally suggested by Voros McCracken when he introduced DIPS Theory. This includes strikeouts, walks, hit-by-pitches, and home runs. While we know that strikeouts and walks are extremely important, eight years after Voros's work was originally published, we can definitively say that home runs aren't entirely under a pitcher's control.

Here's how things work: a pitcher can influence the rate of fly balls he gives up. By this logic, the more fly balls allowed, the more total balls will clear the fences for home runs (all else being equal). However, while a starting pitcher can control the rate of fly balls allowed, he cannot do a very good job of controlling the rate at which those fly balls become home runs (with very few exceptions).

To put it more simply, starting pitchers don't have any underlying ability to prevent home runs—the best they can do is prevent fly balls. If those fly balls are clearing the fence at too high a rate (or too low), we say that the pitcher has been unlucky (or lucky).

And therein lies the problem with FIP.

Pitchers undervalued by FIP

Here is a list of pitchers that have been undervalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched worse than they actually have.

To explain the table below, we're seeing the pitcher's LIPS ERA (which also estimates ERA but normalizes HR/FB, in addition to some other things), his FIP, and the difference between the two. I've also included each pitcher's HR/FB rate so you can see just how much this stat influences FIP (for the worse). League average is around 11 percent, and you'll notice that just about every player on this list is well above that number.

+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+
| LAST        | FIRST      | G  | GS | IP    | ERA  | LIPS ERA | FIP  | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+
| Geer        | Joshua B   | 11 |  9 |  58.7 | 6.14 |     4.48 | 5.97 |    -1.49 |   18% |
| Guthrie     | Jeremy     | 13 | 13 |  73.3 | 5.52 |     4.39 | 5.78 |    -1.39 |   17% |
| Colon       | Bartolo    | 11 | 11 |  55.3 | 4.23 |     4.21 | 5.60 |    -1.39 |   19% |
| Harden      | Rich       |  9 |  9 |  49.7 | 4.53 |     3.18 | 4.47 |    -1.29 |   23% |
| Bush        | David T    | 13 | 12 |  74.7 | 4.58 |     4.34 | 5.52 |    -1.18 |   17% |
| Baker       | Scott S    | 11 | 11 |  67.7 | 5.59 |     3.76 | 4.93 |    -1.17 |   17% |
| Young       | Chris      | 13 | 13 |  73.7 | 4.76 |     4.16 | 5.13 |    -0.97 |   11% |
| Johnson     | Randy      | 13 | 13 |  70.0 | 4.89 |     3.61 | 4.55 |    -0.94 |   22% |
| Galarraga   | Armando    | 13 | 13 |  69.7 | 5.56 |     5.08 | 6.02 |    -0.94 |   17% |
| Blanton     | Joe M      | 12 | 12 |  71.3 | 5.17 |     3.97 | 4.86 |    -0.89 |   19% |
| Suppan      | Jeff       | 13 | 13 |  70.3 | 4.48 |     4.88 | 5.72 |    -0.84 |   16% |
| Moyer       | Jamie      | 12 | 12 |  66.3 | 6.11 |     4.97 | 5.81 |    -0.84 |   16% |
| Parra       | Manny      | 13 | 13 |  64.7 | 7.52 |     4.39 | 5.12 |    -0.73 |   15% |
| Davies      | Kyle K     | 13 | 13 |  77.0 | 5.14 |     4.67 | 5.34 |    -0.67 |   14% |
| Eaton       | Adam       |  8 |  8 |  41.0 | 8.56 |     5.29 | 5.96 |    -0.67 |   16% |
| Looper      | Braden     | 12 | 12 |  68.0 | 4.50 |     4.58 | 5.23 |    -0.65 |   18% |
| Oswalt      | Roy        | 14 | 14 |  82.3 | 4.37 |     3.96 | 4.56 |    -0.60 |   15% |
| Slowey      | Kevin      | 13 | 13 |  78.7 | 4.23 |     3.57 | 4.09 |    -0.52 |   11% |
| Sonnanstine | Andy       | 13 | 13 |  70.3 | 6.65 |     4.97 | 5.48 |    -0.51 |   16% |
| Carmona     | Fausto C   | 12 | 12 |  60.7 | 7.42 |     5.58 | 6.08 |    -0.50 |   18% |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+

While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more positive.

Pitchers overvalued by FIP

Here is a list of pitchers that have been overvalued by FIP so far in 2009. If you were to look at the FIP of these pitchers, you would believe that they have pitched better than they actually have.

+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+
| LAST        | FIRST      | G  | GS | IP    | ERA  | LIPS ERA | FIP  | LIPS-FIP | HR/FB |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+
| Lowe        | Derek      | 13 | 13 |  83.7 | 3.44 |     4.75 | 3.20 |     1.55 |    3% |
| Billingsley | Chad R     | 13 | 13 |  85.7 | 2.73 |     4.07 | 2.73 |     1.34 |    3% |
| Stults      | Eric W     |  9 |  9 |  45.0 | 4.80 |     5.47 | 4.14 |     1.33 |    3% |
| Jurrjens    | Jair       | 13 | 13 |  79.0 | 2.85 |     4.83 | 3.53 |     1.30 |    5% |
| Garland     | Jon        | 13 | 13 |  76.0 | 5.45 |     6.42 | 5.13 |     1.29 |    9% |
| Blackburn   | Nick N     | 13 | 13 |  84.3 | 3.31 |     5.40 | 4.22 |     1.18 |    7% |
| Greinke     | Zack Z     | 13 | 13 |  94.3 | 1.72 |     3.01 | 1.92 |     1.09 |    2% |
| Pelfrey     | Mike A     | 11 | 11 |  65.3 | 4.68 |     5.48 | 4.40 |     1.08 |    8% |
| Lincecum    | Tim        | 13 | 13 |  88.0 | 2.66 |     3.24 | 2.22 |     1.02 |    4% |
| Rodriguez   | Wandy      | 13 | 13 |  79.7 | 2.82 |     4.16 | 3.16 |     1.00 |    7% |
| Hammel      | Jason A    | 12 |  9 |  54.0 | 4.33 |     4.94 | 3.99 |     0.95 |   11% |
| Carpenter   | Chris      |  7 |  7 |  44.0 | 1.23 |     3.34 | 2.39 |     0.95 |    3% |
| Jimenez     | Ubaldo     | 13 | 13 |  82.7 | 3.92 |     4.21 | 3.27 |     0.94 |    6% |
| Meche       | Gil        | 13 | 13 |  75.3 | 3.70 |     4.00 | 3.08 |     0.92 |    3% |
| Happ        | J.A.       | 16 |  4 |  45.3 | 2.98 |     5.34 | 4.42 |     0.92 |    9% |
| Pineiro     | Joel       | 12 | 12 |  76.7 | 3.99 |     4.01 | 3.09 |     0.92 |    4% |
| Verlander   | Justin B   | 13 | 13 |  86.3 | 3.02 |     3.26 | 2.36 |     0.90 |    6% |
| Lee         | Cliff      | 13 | 13 |  88.0 | 3.17 |     4.03 | 3.15 |     0.88 |    6% |
| Miller      | Andrew M   | 10 |  8 |  46.0 | 4.30 |     4.45 | 3.62 |     0.83 |    5% |
| Johnson     | Josh       | 13 | 13 |  89.0 | 2.73 |     3.55 | 2.72 |     0.83 |    6% |
| Washburn    | Jarrod     | 12 | 12 |  76.3 | 3.30 |     4.53 | 3.71 |     0.82 |    7% |
| Padilla     | Vicente    | 11 | 11 |  65.3 | 4.82 |     5.70 | 4.89 |     0.81 |    8% |
| Wakefield   | Tim        | 12 | 12 |  76.0 | 4.50 |     5.50 | 4.75 |     0.75 |    6% |
+-------------+------------+----+----+-------+------+----------+------+----------+-------+

While true for nearly all players to some extent, if you see analysis done on these players using FIP, take note that the conclusions should probably be much more negative.

Evaluating on your own

If you're looking for an alternative to FIP for evaluating players on your own, you have a few options. LIPS ERA is my favorite, and it's now available in Heater Magazine. You could also simply go with xFIP, which appears on every THT player page and is sortable on the leaders pages. Other free options include stats like tRA and QERA.

Concluding thoughts

Hopefully this cleared some things up for some of you, as I know I've gotten a few questions about FIP this season. For those of you who were already aware of its shortcomings, well, hopefully you at least enjoyed chewing on the leaderboards presented. As always, if you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me or comment.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am (38) Comments

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Gaby Sanchez promotion coming?

It appears that the Marlins may be preparing to promote prospect 1B/3B Gaby Sanchez (h/t Rotoworld). The team has instructed their Triple-A coaching staff to start Sanchez strictly at third base for the next 10 games. With Emilio Bonifacio struggling (how was he a better choice than Dallas McPherson, again?), it makes sense that the Fish are preparing for Sanchez to take his starting spot.

If you're in a deep 12-team mixed league or deeper, Sanchez should be stashed if he hasn't already been. Preseason projections for Sanchez were varied. His batting average projections ranged from .240 to .300, home runs from 9 to 12, and stolen bases from 5 to 12 (scaled to 325 at-bats, close to what he'll get if he starts the rest of the way). Those are solid numbers, especially for NL-only leaguers. Where he'll bat in the order is yet to be seen, although the #2 spot would be open for someone to take if Bonifacio is sent to the bench. Otherwise he'd probably have to bat in the bottom half of the order. The Sun Sentinel proposed this lineup:

Coghlan LF
Uggla 2B
Ramirez SS
Cantu 1B
Hermida RF
Sanchez 3B
Baker C
Ross CF

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:50pm (0) Comments

Friday, June 12, 2009

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Brad Bergesen | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 4.3 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.04 ERA
True Talent: 3.3 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.74 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 wins, 2 K, 6.34 ERA
Bergesen is very difficult to rate; to scope things, though, we'll note up front that he's potentially valuable only in AL-only leagues, and then only certain weeks (i.e., when he's not up against the high-octane offenses). His “True Talent” isn't hot, but he did have a 3.5 K:BB ratio in his minor-league career despite low K numbers. Also, he keeps the ball down (53% GB%, 0.7 HR/9 career minors). The O's slick fielding will continue to bring him “sometimes” success.

Yuniesky Betancourt | Seattle | SS
YTD: .243/.271/.322
True Talent: .272/.299/.383
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .272 BA, 0.3 SB
Normally, we like to highlight guys to pick up, but in this case, “YuBet” is causing panic. Some players respond to “conversations about work ethic," but we're not holding our breath. Betancourt's fielding this year is his worst ever (.695 RZR/11 OOZ, +/- is already at -12 runs), and both measures are worst among full-time shortstops. Cedeno has stunk even worse, but expect some change soon—maybe slick-fielding Osvaldo Navarro, who is back in the organization and has a .386 OBP at Double-A.

Jose Contreras | Chicago | SP
YTD: 4.8 K/9, 4.1 K/BB, 6.45 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.25 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Contreras was originally expected to miss half the season after injuring his Achilles last year; instead, he went on an offseason workout binge and entered camp in such great shape that many spoke of his physique with awe. He continued to surprise by showing his old nasty stuff, with Ozzie commenting that his stuff looks the best that he has seen from him. Expect more hiccups, but we're going to bypass that True Talent line and suggest that, come August/September, Contreras could be a top-tier starter.

Vin Mazzaro | Oakland | SP
YTD: 3.3 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: 4.5 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 5.40 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.1 IP, 0.3 wins, 3 K, 5.72 ERA
Another week, another young A's pitcher who's all the craze. Winner of Texas League (Double-A) Pitcher of the Year in 2008, Mazzaro hit the ground running this year in Triple-A as well (2.40 ERA, great peripherals). Mazzaro throws hard, but like Fausto Carmona, he probably won't ever have the Ks to show for it, as he strives for groundouts. Expect the A's great defense to make Mazzaro a viable option against Chicago, KC, and Seattle, even in shallow mixed leagues.

Lyle Overbay | Toronto | 1B
YTD: .301/.406/.568
True Talent: .272/.355/.453
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .275 BA, 0.1 SB
The Toronto Blue Jays this year are collectively telling True Talent to “Take a hike, eh!” Cito's magic has transformed the 4.0-RPG team that he inherited up to well over 5 RPG. Overbay has always hit RHP better, and his rate stats this year are helped by having only 23 PA against LHP. He's a .286/.381/.468 career hitter versus RHP, and we're sold on the “Cito bump,” thinking that Overbay will exceed even that line. He should be better than a “filler” in most formats.

Scott Podsednik | Chicago | OF
YTD: .296/.353/.387
True Talent: .266/.328/.358
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, .261 BA, 0.8 SB
2005 postseason hero “Scotty Pods” is back on the South Side! How thoughtful of the team to leave the lead-off spot “vacant” until he returned. Ozzie will have tough decisions when Quentin is back, since even when Pods regresses, they need him leading off (never thought we'd say that...). Expect a 25-SB pace and batting stats better than his “True Talent,” since Podsednik will be rested (and also get to avoid the toughest LHP).

Aaron Poreda | Chicago | RP/SP
YTD: 9.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.39 ERA (Double-A)
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
We are tripling up on White Sox this week, as the team has so many changes with significant players lately. We're guessing that this trip to the majors is just “intermission” for Poreda, helping to keep his IP down before a deserved promotion to Triple-A. Poresa can touch 100 MPH, and he had 50% GB% in Double-A. For keeper leagues, Poreda is an elite SP prospect and worth bidding as such. It would take a big break for him to be useful this year, though.

Jason Vargas | Seattle | SP
YTD: 5.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 2.35 ERA
True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.43 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.43 ERA
Once a highly regarded prospect, Vargas has always allowed far too many homers, a tendency that's discounted by most projection systems. Still, his tendency is in the right park, with an exceptional trio of outfielders (.948 RZR, 126 OOZ catches). And YuBet's awful defense hurts him less. With no offensive support, plus the home runs, Vargas is only a “some weeks” guy in AL-only leagues.

National League by Michael Street

Mike MacDougal | Washington | RP
YTD: 7.4 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 4.91 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.18 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 Saves, 4.31 ERA
In the Nationals’ "Flavor of the Week" bullpen, MacDougal is not an appetizing selection. His career numbers, True Talent rates, and YTD stats all show that he can throw strikes; he just doesn’t know when they’re coming. Manny Acta has hinted that MacDougal won’t be closing for long, so he is a short-term pickup for NL-only leagues, and any team that needs saves without strong ratios.

Carlos Gonzalez | Colorado | OF
YTD: .222/.333/.333
True Talent: .262/.307/.411
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .260 BA, 0.2 SB
Time is running out on this former top prospect who's now in his third organization. After torching the minors (.339/.418/.630), Gonzalez will get the chance to stick in LF. He doesn’t hit lefties well (.764 versus .901 against RHP), and he still needs to prove that he can hit major-league pitching, so he could platoon. Only NL leagues deeper than 14 teams should think about Gonzalez, but every owner should watch to see if this talent finally arrives.

Matt Maloney | Cincinnati | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
When Edinson Volquez hit the DL, the Reds brought up Maloney, who has been lighting up the minors (7.8 K/9, 6.4 K/BB, 2.01 ERA). Don’t let the strikeout numbers fool you—Maloney is more finesse than power, so he has to control his three pitches well to succeed. He’ll have to fight to stick in the rotation when Volquez returns, but owners needing pitching in 12-team NL leagues or 15-team mixed leagues can ride him until then.

Leo Nunez | Florida | RP
YTD: 8.1 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.10 ERA
True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.68 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 saves, 4.02 ERA
Nunez collected two saves when Lindstrom couldn’t shut the door for the Fish. And even though Fredi Gonzalez insists that there has been no changing of the guard, that vote of confidence will disappear if Lindstrom maintains his 7.0 BB/9 rate. Until then, Nunez will help your ratios and K, making him a mandatory insurance policy for Lindstrom owners, and a strong roster addition for NL-only teams and any deep league where you’re speculating on saves.

Laynce Nix | Cincinnati | OF
YTD: .268/.324/.553
True Talent: .254/.310/.478
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 2 R, 3 RBI, .257 BA, 0.1 SB
Nix’s potential has always been hampered by his inability to take a pitch (0.18 BB/K career). He has boosted that figure this year to .27 BB/K, but that rate (and his True Talent) shows what he’ll do to your BA. Still, he’ll give you dingers and a handful of RBI from the Reds’ 5- or 6-hole. Being the heavy half of the platoon makes him a good play only in weekly or 14-team leagues.

Aaron Rowand | San Francisco | OF
YTD: .307/.373/.485
True Talent: .284/.347/.452
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .293 BA, 0.3 SB
Rowand followed his injury-shortened .745 OPS in 2006 with a .889 OPS in 2007. Last year he regressed to a .749 OPS, but his performance in 2009 looks a lot like that 2007 rebound, right down to an identical 123 OPS+. True Talent and a .357 BABIP say that he won’t sustain that level, so don’t expect a .300 BA or steals, but 12-team NL leagues and 14-team mixed leagues can ride his hot bat as an extra outfielder.

Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia | CA
YTD: .287/.410/.475
True Talent: .262/.352/.395
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .261 BA, 0.3 SB
Ruiz this year has added power to patience, already nearly reaching last year’s 2B and HR totals. He’s hitting more fly balls (34.4 GB% after 54.3% in 2008 and 46.2% in 2007) and increased his HR rate (6.9% HR/F after 4.5% in 2008 and 4.7% in 2007). Those numbers will regress as his legs wear down, but owners in 8+ team NL leagues and all 14+ team mixed leagues can ride him while he’s hot.

Sean West | Florida | SP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 2.22 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 6.11 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 wins, 4 K, 6.66 ERA
Nobody noticed West’s two decent May starts, but everyone grabbed him after his seven no-hit innings against the Giants. The tall lefty, a 2005 first-round pick, deserves the attention even if True Talent and his .167 BABIP say a correction is looming. Like Maloney, West may not stick when the regular pitcher (Anibal Sanchez) returns, and West's numbers are a bit fringe-y, but he’s worth a long look in 10-team NL or 14-team mixed leagues.

Posted by THT Staff at 2:00am (13) Comments

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Add Jenks, Dotel to the list

Yesterday, I mentioned how a number of closers may be on the trading block over the next few weeks. Today, it looks like White Sox closer Bobby Jenks and reliever Octavio Dotel may be on the block as well (h/t Rotoworld). Matt Thorton is pitching incredibly so far this year, and he'd likely replace Jenks if he were to be traded. He's worth owning in the interim for his skills, and the added chance for saves increases his value further.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:08pm (0) Comments

Roster Doctor - 6/11/09

I am always chasing saves because I constantly trade away my closers in packaged deals to acquire other players. It has helped me put together trades that have netted most of the big names on my roster.

Being first to jump on newly anointed closers has its place in fantasy baseball. For all of you too proud owners (a category I fall into sometimes) there is no shame in joining the digging through the rummage of free agency to find the next closer, especially when it leads to you winning hardware in September.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:45am

Top 50 Fantasy Prospects in the 2009 MLB Draft with Comments

Here's my big board, fellas. Now that we know where the top players were drafted, we get an idea about the seriousness of each player's signing bonus demands, which is the biggest x-factor in the draft. I will be using this sacred artifact to conduct all of my fantasy drafts. Never draft for need, stick to your board, and enjoy long-term success. Enjoy, and feel free to share your big board in the comments section. Send any minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

1. SP Steven Strasburg - Washington would not draft him at No. 1 if they didn't plan on breaking signing bonus records in the process. They are serious about signing the best college pitching prospect ever. He is that good, but there are of course no guarantees. The human mind can be the worst enemy to a pitcher, which has been proving by countless phenoms fading away into obscurity. If you have the top pick in your league's draft, don't think twice. Strasburg is as good as they come.

2. OF Donovan Tate - San Diego took him No. 3 overall, and they will have to offer a signing bonus beyond what they paid former No. 1 overall pick Matt Bush. It will come down to the wire, but everything is pointing toward the Padres getting a deal done with the top position player in the draft.

3. SP Zack Wheeler - Recently, San Francisco has proven that they know their stuff when it comes to scouting pitching talent. While Wheeler is only my third favorite high school pitcher in the draft, his draft position and organizational situation have me excited.

4. SP Tyler Matzek - Having Matzek, my favorite high school pitching prospect, fall to Colorado breaks my heart. No pitcher has ever been able to consistently put up elite numbers playing half their games at Coors Field. His slide has me thinking that his commitment to Oregon is very strong. I'm cautiously optimistic that the Rockies will make sure he turns pro.

5. SP Matthew Purke - While it's not Coors Field, the Ballpark at Arlington is almost just as bad. Plus he will have to face designated hitters. Matzek fell into a disappointing situation, and now my second favorite high school pitcher is facing a similar calamity. At least Texas has a superb recent history of producing strong pitching prospects.

6. SP Aaron Crow - I can not see Crow failing to sign for a second year in a row. Kansas City believes in investing through the draft. They will get a deal done with the potential ace.

7. SP Jacob Turner - Another top flight high school arm. Detroit knows what they like in a high school arm, and Turner has it.

8. SP Shelby Miller - St. Louis had Miller high on their board, and he fell right into their lap. I have no concerns about the Cardinals not getting a deal done with Miller.

9. SS Jiovanni Mier - I have been critical of Houston's drafting habits, but I like their selection of Mier. In my opinion he is the best pure shortstop in the draft.

10. SP Matt Hobgood - Baltimore surprised many with their early selection of Hobgood, but Baltimore has had a great recent history with pitching prospects. Hobgood fits the mold.

11. OF Dustin Ackley
12. SP Alex White
13. SP Chad James
14. OF Slade Heathcott
15. SP Mike Leake
16. SP Kyle Gibson
17. 3B Bobby Borchering
18. SP Chad Jenkins
19. OF Michael Trout
20. SP Eric Arnett
21. SS Nick Franklin
22. SS Grant Green
23. SP Rex Brothers
24. SP Tanner Scheppers
25. C Wil Myers
26. SP James Paxton
27. C Max Stassi
28. 1B Rich Poythress
29. OF Everett Williams
30. SP Garrett Gould
31. 3B Matt Davidson
32. SP Andy Oliver
33. SP Tyler Skaggs
34. 3B David Renfroe
35. C Tommy Joseph
36. SS Mychal Givens
37. SP Sam Dyson
38. C Tony Sanchez
39. OF Kentrail Davis
40. RP Joe Kelly
41. SP Aaron Miller
42. SP Madison Younginer
43. SP Brody Colvin
44. OF Brett Jackson
45. OF Randal Grichuk
46. SP Kendal Volz
47. SP Kyle Heckathorn
48. SP Mike Minor
49. OF A.J. Pollock
50. SP Brooks Pounders

Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:42am (14) Comments

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Hermida and Ross available

About a week ago, it was reported that the Marlins have now made OF Jeremy Hermida and OF Cody Ross available in trade talks, in addition to 2B Dan Uggla and CI Jorge Cantu (h/t MLBTR).

Should either or both OFs be traded, this could open back up a spot for top prospect Cameron Maybin, should the team decide he's ready. Brett Carroll and Alejandro de Aza could also see a big boost in value, and it's possible they'd each find near-regular playing time if the Fish decide to keep Maybin in Triple-A for the rest of the year. Prospect John Raynor could be yet another possibility. He's not playing particularly well at Triple-A, but he does seem to have the kind of speed fantasy owners drool over. NL-only leaguers, keep an eye on this situation.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:13pm (0) Comments

Morrow sent down

Current Mariners reliever Brandon Morrow is going down to the minor leagues for some time to build up arm strength to return to the majors as a starter, says Mariners Insider. According to the article it says the new M's front office wants to slowly build up his stamina, meaning he may not return to the majors until September, and about a month and a half at the earliest.

This news should come as a blow to Morrow owners who should drop him when he gets sent down sometime next week (except in keeper/dynasty leagues of course). The man who displaced Morrow as the Mariners closer, David Aardsma, was hanging onto the closing job by a thread, but this news increases his chances of keeping the job. Despite a 1.91 ERA and converting eight of nine save opportunities, Aardsma has not been pitching well, made most obvious by his 20 walks in 28 innings this season.

If Aardsma does endure reversal of luck and loses the closer role, I could see the M's resorting to a carousel closer committee since none of their other relievers—Roy Corcoran, Miguel Bautista, Mark Lowe, Sean White—stand out.

Posted by Paul Singman at 7:01pm (0) Comments

Closers on the move?

We're now a third of the way into June, and we're beginning to hear more and more trade rumors. Lately, there have been quite a few rumors surrounding closers that, if traded, would have significant fantasy ramifications.

Huston Street: The fact that GM Dan O'Dowd's contract is up at the end of the season muddy's things a bit, but if there is a firesale, Street will very likely be gone. It was reported last month that O'Dowd's job would probably be safe.
Next-in-line: Manny Corpas. Unlucky so far this year, but surface numbers have been better of late and will improve as the deadline approaches.

Jose Valverde: Astros aren't contending and have had no problem trading their best relievers in the past.
Next-in-line: LaTroy Hawkins, unless...

LaTroy Hawkins: There's also talk of the 'Stros trading Hawkins, perhaps to the Twins.
Next-in-line: Felipe Paulino has a ridiculous 2.17 gmLI and has both the skills and surface numbers to make him a strong bet if both Valverde and Hawkins are traded. Tim Byrdak and Doug Brocail are other possibilities, but neither has been good this year.

Chad Qualls: With how the D'Backs are playing, trading their closer has now become a real possibility.
Next-in-line: Most likely Tony Pena (who may also be a trade candidate). Dark horses might be Jon Rauch or Juan Gutierrez.

Kerry Wood: Less likely than the rest given his big contract and slow start to 2009.
Next-in-line: Jensen Lewis's ERA (5.46) isn't pretty, but he was the choice last year and he's been used in the highest leverage situations. Rafael Betancourt's 2008 bad luck has reversed, but he will be out for several weeks. Consider Tony Sipp a dark horse.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:19pm (0) Comments

Young to bat

Denard Span left last night's game with dizziness and is being evaluated by doctors. Span will be out at least for the next couple of games, meaning Delmon Young will get regular playing time in his absence. The absence could be two games or two weeks—it is not yet known—but whatever the case, Young needs to perform well if he is ever going to get regular playing time this year.

For those still holding onto him, this should be the end of the straw for Young if he does not improve on his .563 OPS during this opportunity.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:54pm (0) Comments

What’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins?

Are Jimmy Rollins's struggles finally over? (Icon/SMI)

The article I was planning for today didn't get finished in time, so I thought we'd have a theoretical discussion on mechanical adjustments, regression to the mean, and Phillies' shortstop Jimmy Rollins.

As I noted on Buy on the Rumor last night, I filled in last minute on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show. One of the questions posed was "What is wrong with Jimmy Rollins?," which spurred an interesting discussion when I mentioned Rollins's claim that he found a mechanical glitch in his swing over the weekend. I didn't get to articulate my point as well as I would have liked, or say as much about it as I would have liked, so I thought I'd talk a little more today.

Mechanical adjustments and regression to the mean

When I mentioned the mechanical adjustments Rollins claimed to have made, our good friend Mike Podhorzer immediately jumped in, wondering if it was just the typical BS we often hear from struggling players. He noted Rollins's "unlucky" .239 BABIP, saying that a number that low is bound to come back up. Analysts often call this "regression to the mean" or "regression to a player's true talent level," but I posed a different view of what this actually means.

Sure, Rollins's BABIP is very low and is almost certain to rise, but the reason that it's so low to begin with may not be sheer bad luck. While we try to be as objective as possible and focus mostly on the numbers, we have to remember that we are dealing with human beings who are most certainly not focused only on the numbers. These are professional baseball players who have access to scores of video footage and are likely constantly evaluating themselves on a micro-level and making adjustments accordingly.

What we call "regression to the mean" may not simply be a matter of luck and sample size, but is likely also caused, in part, by players making adjustments (at least for some players). After all, while Rollins's true talent may have been something like a .350 wOBA coming into the season, if his swing is different now, how can we expect him to perform to his previous "true talent level"? If it's a different swing, it's a different player, at least to some degree.

Maybe Rollins's BABIP was low because there was a problem with his swing, but because he's a professional baseball player he was bound to fix it, causing the BABIP to rise to it's normal level. This, in turn, would cause analysts to classify Rollins's initially poor BABIP as "bad luck" in hindsight, but perhaps there was actually more to it than that.

The specific case of Rollins -- BABIP

Now, of course, the possibility also exists that this was just BS coming from a struggling and/or unlucky player. So let's examine Rollins's claim and see if the numbers back it up.

Scrutinizing footage of recent games, Rollins discovered a mechanical issue occurring at the moment his bat made contact with the ball: His swing was flat, meaning that his bat dropped less than an inch at contact, causing him to get under the ball and lift it in the air.

"Hitting pop-ups, usually it's something right at the point of contact when your swing is coming off the plane," he said. "Everything is good right before the point of contact - your timing and everything else - but you're flattening out your swing right at that point.

"As opposed to keeping the angle of the bat above the ball, it might just get a little flat where it's level with the ball. When you finish the swing, if you kind of go down, that creates the underneath-the-ball effect, and you pop up."

Rollins then held his thumb and forefinger about an inch apart: "It's literally between here and right there, and that's a pop-up," he said.

He closed his fingers and continued: "That's a line drive."

So, is Rollins hitting more pop-ups and fewer line drives? You bet:

+------+---------+--------+-----+--------+
| YEAR | LAST    | IF FB% | LD% | OF FB% |
+------+---------+--------+-----+--------+
| 2009 | Rollins |    6.0 |  18 |     34 |
| 2008 | Rollins |    3.6 |  24 |     27 |
| 2007 | Rollins |    3.5 |  20 |     41 |
| 2006 | Rollins |    3.9 |  19 |     33 |
| 2005 | Rollins |    3.7 |  24 |     28 |
| 2004 | Rollins |    3.7 |  21 |     32 |
+------+---------+--------+-----+--------+

Waaaay more pop-ups, actually, and the fewest line drives of his career (or at least as far back as 2002, the earliest we have batted ball data for). And while it's obviously a very small sample, Rollins hit two line drives in last night's game (50 percent). Since pop-ups become outs 98 percent of the time, this definitely has something to do with Rollins's BABIP.

Also worth noting is that, according to our early look at HITf/x data, posted by Mike Fast at THT Live yesterday, Rollins was among the worst hitters in the majors in terms of Speed Off Bat during the month of April (280th out of 303). As HITf/x is brand new and we don't have anything from 2008 to compare that to, we can't say for sure that this isn't the norm for Rollins, but there's a very good chance that it is not. Speed Off Bat very likely has a high correlation with BABIP, and given Rollins's .300+ career mark coming into the year, I very much doubt he's among the worst in the league at hitting the ball hard.

As a side-note, I'm getting super excited for HITf/x. If we had it right now, we'd not only be able to check how Rollins was doing during his early season slump, but we'd also be able to check his Speed Off Bat numbers over the next week or two and see if this mechanical change does appear to be legit. Even if his BABIP is only .200 over the next couple weeks, having the HITf/x data would let us look below the surface and potentially say that "Yes, Jimmy Rollins has made changes and has simply been unlucky since then. Buy!"

The specific case of Rollins -- Power

Finally, during the show, another good friend of ours, Patrick DiCaprio, conceded that perhaps a mechanical problem was to blame for Rollins's BABIP, but he couldn't see how it might be to blame for his power loss. While I'm no mechanics expert, I suggested that perhaps it was a matter of the batter shifting his weight improperly or something similar. Now, having a chance to read Rollins's exact explanation of the mechanical change, I think I have a better explanation.

Rollins's HR/FB is way down this season at 4.7 percent. To compare, it was 7.2 percent last season and above 10 percent in 2006 and 2007 (and tHR believed it should have been above 10 percent last year as well). If you look at the batted ball table above, however, you'll also notice that Rollins's outfield fly rate is very high, the second highest of his career. This is usually a good thing for a power hitter (more flies equals more opportunities for home runs), but for Rollins, in this specific instance, it may not be.

Rollins was never a guy who blasted the ball over the fence to begin with, so if he really is getting under the ball too much, altering the trajectory of his fly balls could have a significant impact on his home runs. If his fly balls are being hit too high up instead of being hit on a straighter line out, logically, fewer of them are going to be clearing the fences. They're going to be landing in the middle of the outfield instead of on the warning track or in the stands.

This could also further explain the BABIP. The more time the ball is in the air (as would be happening if Rollins is hitting the ball higher up), the more time the fielders have to get under it and catch it. Fly balls are the easiest batted balls to field to begin with (aside from pop-ups), and Rollins may have been making things even easier for fielders.

Concluding thoughts

So what do you guys think? Am I trying to hard to find a reason to be optimistic about Rollins (full disclosure: he was my most expensive hitter in LABR NL)? Am I simply engaging in a form of logical fallacy? Or does all this make enough sense to believe Rollins might be on the rebound?

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:47pm (6) Comments

Worst Monday: Week 1 results

When we surveyed Monday's box scores, we figured that the winning Worst Monday entry would include a starting pitcher or two—Jeremy Bonderman, Jon Garland, and Andrew Sonnanstine all gave up at least 5 ER in personal Losses, and Zach Duke got decked.

However, in our inaugural edition, reader Gavin Konkel trotted out no pitchers. And yet, Gavin still managed negative points.

Because, of course, when you send Miguel Cabrera and Justin Morneau to the plate 12 times, you expect numbers like these:

          AB   R  1B  2B  3B  HR RBI  SB  CS  BB   K  DP    Pts
Cabrera    7   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   1   1   1   -1.5
Morneau    4   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   3   0   -3.0

Keep in mind that Cabrera and Morneau entered Monday with a combined .343 BA and 1016 OPS.

And so, on a day in which his leaguemates earned as many as 22 points, Gavin got -4.5 points. For that feat, he is our debut Worst Monday winner. Congrats to Gavin!

For his efforts (or lack thereof), Gavin gets a free subscription to Heater Magazine. We may also enshrine "to konkel" as a verb meaning "to get no production from elite hitters" ("The Mets are really konkeling").

In addition, the owner of the worst Worst Monday for the season will get a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December. Gavin immediately leaps to the top (bottom?) of the leaderboard.

We'll open up the balloting again next Tuesday. Can you best -4.5 points? Konkel it!

Posted by John Burnson at 6:17am (2) Comments

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Radio Show Tonight

As a quick note, I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show tonight at 10:30 PM EST (about 30 minutes from now). It was a last minute invite to help fill in for someone who won't be able to make it, so sorry this is coming a little late. Feel free to listen in if you would like.

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:53pm (0) Comments

Poreda called up

The White Sox have called up their top pitching prospect and first round pick from 2007 Aaron Poreda from Double-A. It was Poreda himself who first broke the news, writing the following on his Facebook page:

This is the biggest day of my life... I'm goin to Chicago, the big leagues, and I ain't never goin back!!!!!

Poreda is a large left-handed pitcher who was having a great year in Double-A with a 2.16 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 58 innings for the White Sox affiliate. On a less positive note he also allowed 32 walks over that span and has never thrown a pitch in Triple-A or the majors before.

What his role will be on the White Sox is still unclear; he will either take the fifth spot in the rotation from Bartolo Colon or be assigned to a bullpen role. He should only be considered in deep AL-Only leagues and only in those leagues if he does indeed start.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:00pm (0) Comments

Lidge to DL, Get Madson

Brad Lidge has been placed on the DL. His replacement will be Ryan Madson, who needs to be picked up in all league formats if he's unowned. I talked about the risks of Lidge here a few days before Buy on the Rumor went live, so hopefully some of you read back and stashed Madson.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:26pm (0) Comments

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Buying high and selling low

This week, it's THT Fantasy's turn to host the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. Thanks go to Eriq Gardner, Eric Hinz, and Michael Lerra for helping to put this question together:

Is there ever a time when you 'Buy High' or 'Sell Low' on a player (interpret the meanings of those two phrases as you wish)? Choose a player who you would currently 'Sell Low' (i.e. David Ortiz, Garrett Atkins) or 'Buy High' (i.e. Michael Young, Raul Ibanez, etc.) and give us your sales pitch for that player. If, for example, you're trying to trade Ortiz, how would you market him to the other owners in your league? Finally, what is the minimum requirement you would accept in a trade for the player you selected (or the maximum you would offer in the case of a 'Buy High' player')?

Jon Williams - Advanced Fantasy Baseball

This is a great question. If I must do one or the other, I would prefer to ‘Buy High’ rather than ‘Sell Low.’ I guess I would rather ride out a hot streak than wait for a player to come around. I think it is just as likely that a Raul Ibanez has an unexpected great season as David Ortiz continues to have a miserable one. However, before I bought Ibanez, I would kick all the tires at least twice.

Ibanez spent the last few years of career playing at Safeco Field one of the better pitcher’s parks in the American League. This season he moved from that difficult situation to much more favorable one at Chase Field. He moved from an okay at best lineup in Seattle to a killer lineup in Philadelphia. This all gives me reason to expect to see some improvement.

Ibanez’s strikeout-rate, walk-rate, and BABIP are about the same as always so nothing to worry about there. He is hitting a few more groundballs and fly balls but fewer line drives, but he’s mostly in his career ranges here as well. Ibanez’s production looks very real to me so I would be willing to offer what it takes to get a top outfielder who is probably priced very well in NL-only leagues. I would be okay with offering a solid outfielder and a top prospect to a re-building team, or a solid starter, or an extra closer (assuming I had one) if trading pitching for a bat was an option.

If I had to sell David Ortiz, I would have done it after he hit his first homerun. I would mention his consistent production as a Boston Red Sox. I would note that he began slow last season and still finished as a productive player. I would mention that Dave Magadan has found a mechanical problem with his swing (he was holding his hands lower than usual to start his swing), a problem that Ortiz believes he has finally addressed. I would also wish you luck.

Patrick Cain - Albany Times Union

Great question.

This idea of Buy High/Sell Low is very much how I approach players, as I treat players like stocks. Whaaaat? you might say. The old notion of buy low, sell high is flawed. From a stock stand point its very difficult to do; for each Warren Buffet you have 10 broke schmucks. There's a reason stocks go down, it's because they stink. Baseball players aren't much different. It's really hard, with the information available to fantasy managers, to determine what is a good buy low opportunity. Yes, occasionally we'll strike gold and pick up CC Sabathia or Roy Oswalt early in the 2008 season. But for each of those starts in decline, there are people mired in a bad season or in the declining phase of their career.

Buying high is relative. Right now there is no person flying higher than Zach Greinke. Let's say he was valued at like $20 in the preseason and now he's worth $50. Buying high doesn't mean paying $51. It means paying $30. He's not going to end the season with a sub 1 ERA (I think). But he's also not going to become a pumpkin (I think, again).

I think buying low is just playing with fire. Right now Ortiz is playing like a $2 player. But you're not getting him for $2. You're probably not even going to get him for $12. Whoever owns a slumping guy, believes in said slumper. Or, that is, he probably believes a lot more than you do.

If I was trying to get rid of a guy mired in draught or a collapse, I'd move him in a package. That way the owner feels like their risk is diversified. He'd get not only Ortiz, but also Ibanez. That way you set them up with base of stats and get them dreaming of what could be. But guess what, it won't be. It simply won't.

Brett Greenfield - FantasyPhenoms

I consider a "Buy High" a player who is exceeding expectations, yet has the ability to sustain such a high level of production. On the other hand, a "Sell Low" is somebody who is underachieving but, for example, because of age or lack of lineup protection could continue to underachieve. It isn't often, but there are times when buying high or selling low make sense.

This year, Adam Jones has started off scorching hot. I say "Buy High." He was the main cog in a deal that sent Erik Bedard to Seattle a few years ago. Bedard had come off of a Cy Young-like season and Jones was the Mariners best prospect. Jones hits in an ideal spot in the Orioles lineup. This spot is similar to the spot that Shane Victorino was put in when he broke out for the Phillies in 2007. Jones is sandwiched between Brian Roberts and Nick Markakis, two quality, proven fantasy studs. After them, lies Aubrey Huff, Melvin Mora and the potential of Matt Wieters.

Currently batting .359, Jones' average is certain to drop. He only hit .270 last year, but is seeing a better selection of pitches this year because of where he's batting second. A .290 - .300 AVG is possible. After hitting only nine homers last year, Adam has already hit 10 and should easily surpass 20 at this rate. Jones is on pace for over 100 runs scored and over 100 runs driven in. If I had to choose one to stick, it would be the runs scored. It seems likely that he'll score 100+ runs, while the RBI are likely to come back down, but 80+ is possible. Somewhere between 15 and 30 stolen bases seems like a realistic number for him to steal. He was 7-7 this spring in stolen bases, yet has not attempted many so far during the regular season. Expect his to steal more bases in the near future. Fifty percent of Jones' hits have gone for extra bases, limited his opportunities to steal.

Jones is only 24 years old and is quickly becoming a five-tool fantasy stud. Despite batting .359 and on pace for 140 runs and 117 RBI to go along with 36 homers, Jones is the ultimate "Buy High."

If I were to try dealing for Adam Jones I would have no problem parting with someone like Alex Rios, BJ Upton or Matt Kemp. You might even be able to get something else thrown back along with Jones in exchange for one of the aforementioned hitters.

Mike Podhorzer - Fantasy Pros 911

Yes, there is absolutely a time to "Buy High" or "Sell Low" on a player. In fact, I think this type of strategy may be a lot simpler to execute than the mythical "Buy Low" and "Sell High" trades that are nearly impossible to make in leagues with any bit of competitiveness. Though his 6.60 ERA will undoubtedly come down, I would sell Francisco Liriano low. His skill set has changed dramatically since his pre-TJ Surgery days and he now looks like a slightly better than league average pitcher at best, with little upside or potential to post a sub-4.00 ERA like his owners counted on.

The great thing about Liriano is that he still carries much more name value than other pitchers who have performed just as poorly. It would be easy to point to Liriano's strong second half of last season and convince a league mate that he is buying low and Liriano's value can't fall any further. Point out that he is still only 25 years old and as he moves further away from TJ Surgery, he should continue to gain strength and improve, leading to another strong second half. In addition, a 7.7 K/9 is still above average and could help any fantasy team in the strikeout category.

The minimum pitcher I would require in a straight up deal for Liriano would probably be someone like fellow buy low candidate and rotation mate Scott Baker. Though I would definitely expect to get more than Baker, in terms of projected future value, he would be acceptable. The hitter would depend on my positional and categorical needs, but based strictly on value, I would say someone like Jose Lopez or Kelly Johnson.

Tommy Landry - RotoExperts

First off, never get high before managing your fantasy team, unless you like the nickname "Bob" (a.k.a. Bottom of the Barrel). That goes for buying OR selling.

But seriously, I am never one to go out and pursue a guy who is already playing like an All-Star, unless I think his ceiling is still much higher than what he has done so far. Unfortunately, it is rare that you'll find a taker in that situation without seriously overpaying. In the case of selling low, I have been known to have the occasional fire sale in hopes of landing a replacement guy who I think is due to come out of a slump himself. This is where you can achieve some nice profit. You start by highlighting extended slumps that the player-to-be-dealt has endured in the past and sell it as the same thing. Then you show all the big chinks in the armor of the guy you secretly covet. Typically, I like to do this with players of different styles - e.g. dealing away a "stick a fork in him" power slugger for a speed guy who just healed up from a lingering hamstring problem. You can really harp on the hammy issue in this case, meanwhile playing up the "his walk rate is still great, his contact rate has to get better, and look at all the doubles he hit last week" angle for the slugger.

Of course, you have to draft a bust to have someone to sell low, and I'm risk averse to the point that I wouldn't have taken a guy in severe decline like Big Papi before the tail end of any of my drafts this year. Then again, I'm sitting on Rafael Furcal in two leagues waiting with baited breath for him to "come around". I might be waiting a long time.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am (8) Comments

Handling the least-considered category

Last week, I talked about selling players low.

One of big reasons why many people in fantasy leagues need to start selling low is because it's getting more tough every day to sell high and buy low. A few years ago, even after the publication of Michael Lewis' "Moneyball," a smart fantasy owner could steal players who were the victims of poor luck and had inflated ERAs or depressed batting averages. Not anymore. Jon Lester may have an ERA over 5, but if you make an offer for him, the other owner has likely seen all the notes about a high BABIP and low FIP.

The days of assymetrical information in the fantasy baseball marketplace are just about over, perhaps leaving successful owners in pursuit of new strategic edge towards success.

Well, almost over.

For whatever reason, I've found that many in fantasy leagues hate to think about the category of runs, even though almost all leagues count this category, and success in the category has been demonstrated in many statistical studies to show the highest correlation with overall success in fantasy baseball leagues.

Everyone looks at BABIP these days, but what about xR, or expected runs?

Indeed, by using an xR formula developed by Jim Furtado and later shown on this website to have good correlative merit, we can plug this year's numbers to see which batters are getting lucky and unlucky on the runs front.

First, the unlucky bunch. Here are the 10 batters whose peripheral stats indicate they should be scoring more runs:

Name/Actual Runs/Expected Runs/Difference

Ichiro Suzuki / 23 / 37 / +14
Adam Dunn / 30 / 44 / +14
Prince Fielder / 35 / 48 / +13
Carlos Ruiz / 8 / 20 / +12
Russell Branyon / 33 / 44 / +11
Carlos Lee / 28 / 39 / +11
Victor Martinez / 37 / 47 / +10
Lyle Overbay / 20 / 30 / +10
Albert Pujols / 44 / 54 / +10
Shin-Soo Choo / 33 / 42 / +9

Next, the lucky bunch. Here are the 10 batters whose peripheral stats indicate they should be scoring fewer runs:

Jimmy Rollins / 34 / 20 / -14
Willy Taveras / 33 / 22 / -11
B.J. Upton / 36 / 25 / -11
Jerry Hairston / 34 / 24 / -10
Rafael Furcal / 29 / 19 / -10
Dustin Pedroia / 45 / 36 / -9
Emilio Bonafacio / 30 / 21 / -9
Orlando Cabrera / 28 / 19 / -9
Jody Gerut / 20 / 11 / -9
Fred Lewis / 33 / 25/ -8

Some people may object to this assessment of runs based on the notion that the category is a context stat, indicative of a manager's decision about lineup position and the strength of a team's offense.

Of course, some of that might be true. The formula does weight for the number of at-bats, but doesn't measure the strength of a players' teammates. Still, players in good lineups and poor ones populate both lists. Luck can certainly be a factor in run production.

We'd also point out as we did a month ago that many people in fantasy leagues offer or consider a trade in consult with a league provider’s player rater. Runs certainly get weighted in the calculation of a player's value on these raters so it may help to know some context.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:55am (1) Comments

Pitcher perfect

The day is Saturday in a Head-to-Head league and you are tied with the team you are playing against in wins. This is a great situation to add a pitcher for just one day to make a spot-start to increase your chances of winning the category. Let's go through a few of the criteria that you should go through when selecting the spot-start pitcher perfect for you.

The overwhelmingly most important thing to weigh is the spot-starting pitcher's skill. LIPS ERA, True ERA, xFIP—whatever measure of pitcher's skill that works for you is the overriding factor. But if there are two or more pitchers available that have about the same level of skill, there are some tiebreaking factors that should next be taken into account.

Almost everybody takes into account the lineup the pitcher will face, which is smart because there is a better chance a pitcher gives up more runs against a better-hitting team. Another thing most people account for is how well the pitcher has pitcher in his last few starts. Even though small sample size alerts may be going off in a few people's heads, The Book does show that hot streaks for pitchers do exist to an extent.

Although relatively unimportant compared to the other criteria used to evaluate spot-starting pitchers, many people also are influenced somewhat subconsciously by the team of a pitcher. There is something unjustifiably more enticing about adding a Dodgers starter than a Nationals one.

Admittedly, some merit exists in considering the pitcher's team since we are looking for a win and a Dodgers pitcher is definitely more likely to get the "W." Still, I would put it at the bottom of the list because there is another tiebreaking factor few people look at that has a much bigger impact on whether your pitcher comes away with the win: The opposing pitcher.

My theory is that it takes a little more effort—and by effort I do not mean eight minutes and running a mile, but 30 seconds and a couple extra clicks with your index finger—to find out the starting pitcher for the opposing team and that is why so few factor it in even though it can have a tremendous impact.

Sometimes it will not matter because the opposing pitchers for two potential spot-starters are about equal. Other times however, one pitcher will be facing Doctor Roy and the other Jamie Moyer. Clearly, you want the guy countering Moyer and not Halladay, as this will have a huge impact on whether your pitcher gets the win.

Overall though, the spot-starting pitcher's skill is by far the most important factor and can override all of the others. When two pitchers are close in skill, then you can start looking at secondary and tertiary factors. For a reminder of their order of importance:

At the beginning of the article I made the context for needing a spot-start from a pitcher a daily updated, Head-to-Head league, but really I could have made it any type of league. Spot-starters are necessary in all league formats, just in some more than others.

Any factors you use that I forgot to mention? Let me know in the comments.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:50am

Roster doctor - 6/9/09

Player Pool: Mixed
Type: Non-Keeper
No. of Teams: 12
Points league

Scoring for Batting Categories
Walks: 1 point
Caught Stealing: -2 points
Hitting for the Cycle: 20 points
Errors: -2 points
Hit by Pitch: 1 point
Strikeouts: -1 point
Runs: 1 point
RBI: 1 point
Stolen Bases: 2 points
Total Bases: 1 point

Scoring for Pitching Categories
Walks Issued: -1 point
Blown Saves: -7 points
Complete Games: 10 points
Earned Runs: -1 point
Strikeouts: 1 point
Losses: -10 points
No-Hitters: 50 points
Quality Starts: 5 points
Saves: 8 points
Shutouts: 10 points
Wins: 15 points

Active Players 14
Reserve Players 6
Active SP 4
Active RP 1

Roster:
Brian McCann (C)
Miguel Cabrera (1B)
Aaron Hill (2B)
Jorge Cantu (1B, 3B)
Ryan Theriot (SS)
Andre Ethier (OF)
Nick Swisher (1B, OF)
Ben Zobrist (2B, SS, OF)
Prince Fielder (1B)
Dan Uggla (2B)
J.J. Hardy (SS)
B.J. Upton (OF)
Chris B. Young (OF)
Dan Haren (SP)
Ted Lilly (SP)
Jonathan Papelbon (RP)
Max Scherzer (SP)
Javier Vazquez (SP)
Jair Jurrjens (SP)
Hiroki Kuroda (SP)

Jason wrote to the Roster Doctor concerning a mild headache (he's trying to see if he can upgrade his bench). However, I am going to abuse my authority as Roster Doctor of the day to address the patient's overall corpulence (his league's strange scoring system) as well.

Scoring systems, like beer, are matters of taste and not ethics: I don't like shaking the "thou shalt not" stick at league's preferences. That said, with so many empty Coors Light cans on your league's floor, I can't help but feel that maybe we can do better (PBR?). There are some stats that are clearly gimmicks, like no-hitters, hit-by-pitches, cycles, and (somewhat) shutouts. Scoring stats like these provide for some added entertainment but are mostly luck driven. They're also hard to equate to any kind of "true" baseball value. As a manager, I'd take two home runs or two one-hitters rather than a home run and a triple (extend accordingly to a cycle) or one no-hitter. But cycles and no-hitters are rare enough events that they're not worth upsetting things over.

More importantly, as Jason himself noted in the e-mail, his league heavily rewards power batters and pitchers that get wins. I like that the league includes walks (which are not counted in total bases) and total bases instead of home runs. Using total bases smooths the scoring system out. Doubles and triples are better than singles (everything else equal) but worse than home runs.

On the pitching side of the ledger, however, there are a lot of dis-continuities. Instead of innings pitched, the league rewards quality starts and complete games. So there's little difference between going six innings and giving up three runs versus going eight innings and three runs. Going eight innings and giving up four runs gives many fewer points, despite the same ERA! In general, there is too much emphasis on luck-driven stats like wins and not enough on better (though imperfect) measures of pitcher quality like hits allowed.

Anyway, on to your roster. Ideally, what you'd like is to put Zobrist into your middle infield somewhere (probably for Theriot) and upgrade your outfield. Perhaps you can trade Theriot or Uggla to someone in your league who needs insurance or an upgrade in the middle infield (perhaps Jose Reyes' owner, for instance). Young has value, though obviously it is only for his upside. Opinions differ sharply on him as to how much upside he really has anymore. He might be a small chip to throw in on a trade. Given that you're waiting on Upton as well, maybe replacing Young with Aaron Rowand (whom you wrote was available) is something you should consider.

I like your pitching staff. I would not replace Kuroda as I think he'll be a source of quality starts and wins. Instead, if you're thinking of dropping a pitcher for either Rick Porcello or Josh Outman, then I might think about Scherzer. However, I probably wouldn't pull the trigger for either.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:55am (1) Comments

Monday, June 08, 2009

UZR on game broadcast?

-- Not-at-all-rumor-or-news-related post --

So our good friend Mike Podhorzer IMed me earlier tonight while watching the Braves/Pirates game. He told me that the Braves announcers had mentioned MGL's UZR and UZR/150 and talked about finding stats at FanGraphs. I've heard announcers talk about slightly more advanced concepts on the air, but never anything like this. Incredible.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:57pm (2) Comments

Grab C.J. Wilson, Leo Nunez

Rangers' closer Frank Francisco is still having injury troubles, and C.J. Wilson picked up the save in his stead last night (his fifth of the year). Francisco will be re-evaluated today, but for those looking for saves, Wilson needs to be picked up now. His skills are very borderline for a closer, but if you really need saves, he's worth a pickup.

Before you do, though, I'd check on the availability of Leo Nunez. Matt Lindstrom is struggling, and Nunez is next in line. Asked who his closer was yesterday, Manager Fredi Gonzalez gave Lindstrom his vote of confidence... sort of (h/t Brad Evans at Yahoo!). He also said that his "responsibility as a manager is to 25 guys, and the Florida Marlins, not just one guy. We're trying to get the win for the club."

Expect Lindstrom to be ousted with another couple of bad outings, which are likely to happen given his poor skills. Nunez becomes the guy to own, and he probably has the skills to hold down the job for a while. Kiko Calero is lurking, however, and is showing the best skills in the bullpen. He's currently being used in front of Nunez in the 7th inning.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:33pm (0) Comments

David Ortiz owners… it’s not looking good

As if I needed to tell you that. But consider this now, from John Dewan at ACTA Sports (h/t Tango at The Book Blog). It's the average distance Ortiz is hitting the ball, broken down by batted ball type.

+--------+--------+---------+-------+
| Season | Liners | Fliners | Flies |
+--------+--------+---------+-------+
| 2007   |    205 |     302 |   310 |
| 2008   |    214 |     296 |   275 |
| 2009   |    158 |     278 |   261 |
+--------+--------+---------+-------+

As the lack of home runs should have been indicating, Ortiz just isn't hitting the ball as far. While some psychologists think Ortiz's struggles are in his head (h/t to our friend John Halpin at FOX), it's not really looking that way.

No recommendations here; I just thought it was worth pointing out. Holding onto Ortiz is probably better than trading him for a bag of balls (or trading him for Jason Vargas), although if you're lucky enough to be the guy who got Adam Dunn or Ryan Ludwick for him, I'd be all over it.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:20pm (2) Comments

Fix your ADP data

As I was compiling the numbers for this year's data, I was wondering how I would mess up this year. As a reader thankfully pointed out, I forgot to include the Util only players like Big Papi and Travis Hafner in the mixed-position list.

So below are your updated spreadsheet with the corrections made.

Yahoo_2009_ADPNew.xls

ESPN_2009_ADPNew.xls

In the Yahoo spreadsheet David Ortiz is the only addition, and in the ESPN one, Ortiz along with Jim Thome and Travis Hafner, are added in. Sorry for the inconvenience.

Posted by Paul Singman at 7:12am

Javier Vazquez: More on bunching and damage

For those following along, I dedicated last week to Braves SP Javier Vazquez. I first stated my belief that he'll be a top five fantasy pitcher for the rest of 2009 and then briefly explored the claim that he bunches his hits and walks together. I found little evidence to suggest he did, but there were some things I didn't get a chance to look at. Today, I'd like to go a couple steps further and look at some of these things.

First, while I found that Vazquez was merely league average-ish at bunching hits and walks, I didn't check how similarly-skilled pitchers performed. I also didn't check the quality of the hits, treating every hit and walk equally. Unfortunately, I ran out of time today and didn't get to look at a few other things I would have liked to, so I'm sure you'll all be happy to hear that there should be yet another follow-up in the coming days.

Also, please note that, because we're digging into somewhat complicated matters, this may get a little technical for some readers' likings, and the charts certainly aren't as straight-forward as many of you would like. Please don't feel overwhelmed. I'll do my best to summarize, in simple terms, what's going on at the end of each section.

Note: All data presented in this article was arrived at using the stupendous Retrosheet for the years 2004 to 2008.

Comparison to his peers

As I noted in my previous article (and as a few commenters also made note of), it would be best to compare Vazquez not only to league average, but also to similar skilled pitchers (henceforth known as 'peers').

To define "peers," I selected all starting pitchers who were within 0.25 LIPS ERA points (to assure that they were exhibiting similar skills to Vazquez and not getting lucky) and within 0.05 WHIP points (to assure that there weren't differences in the overall number of hits and walks allowed that would skew the study) for each year. Arbitrary, yes, but that's kind of the nature of the beast. This gives us a sample of nearly 11,000 inning appearances from 2004-2008. The results are shown below:

The format of this chart is a little different than last time. Each column shows the percentage of time that this exact number of hits and walks were allowed in an inning (as opposed to the percentage of time that at least this many hits and walks were allowed, as was displayed last time. This was done to make for easier comparisons to the next couple charts).

The important thing to take away from this is that Vazquez's peers don't perform much differently than league average and that Vazquez doesn't perform much differently than them. In fact, we see almost the same exact net result: the bunching of 1.6 fewer hits and walks than his peers per 216 inning appearances (his average number pitched since 2004). If we remove the innings with two hits and walks, it drops to the same 5.4 deficit we saw last time as well.

Let's dig a little deeper...

Damage done by hits and walks

In my first study, I didn't include the actual damage done by the hits and walks, but simply looked at the raw totals. It was suggested that perhaps Vazquez's problem isn't how many hits and walks he bunches together, but the types of hits (i.e maybe more doubles and homers than singles and walks). Using Linear Weights, we can check this pretty easily.

If you're the kind of person who's interested in the specifics, you can click here to see the average damage done per single inning of a particular type. Here, it appears that more damage is done to Vazquez than both league average and his peers in innings with two, three, or four hits and walks, but he has been able to make up for it a bit by bettering (or tying) both the league and his peers in innings with 5 through 11 hits and walks.

After finding this, I combined the frequency with which Vazquez allows each type of inning with the cumulative damage done by the walks and hits in that type of inning (scaled to 216 inning appearances). You can see the breakdown by inning type here. Vazquez seems to take the biggest (relative) beating in innings with four hits and walks, and these innings happen frequently enough to wreak a little havoc.

For those who would rather not be bored with the specifics (the majority of you, I'm wagering), below is a chart with (hopefully) an easily understandable version of the final effects. This takes into account both the frequency with which Vazquez allows each type of inning and the cumulative damage done by the walks and hits. It has been scaled to show the net linear weighted effect per 216 inning appearances (Vazquez's average since 2004). I've also broken these effects up by types of innings: those with at least 2 hits and walks, 3 hits and walks, and 4 hits and walks.

To put it into simple terms, what we're seeing is that Vazquez's peers are a bit better than league average, but Vazquez himself is a bit worse than both. At best, he's about 2.2 runs worse if we only focus on 2+ H/BB innings (about 0.08 points of ERA). At worst, he's about 4.2 runs worse if we only focus on 3+ H/BB innings (about 0.17 points of ERA). While some of this may be noise, it still looks like it might be justifiable to dock Vazquez's value a little bit... just don't go crazy. I still believe that an ERA below 3.30 is a very real possibility for Javy.

Concluding thoughts

As always, comments are welcome. As I mentioned earlier, I'll probably be doing one final follow-up in the coming days.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am (15) Comments

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: Semi-bailing

For the past two weeks, I have focused on bailing and will continue to do so into a third week. By now, you’ve likely seen the first couple bail trades and received notification from a couple other teams that they’re bailing, too. The problem right now is the teams that have ended their 2009 seasons have likely scooped up what was easily available and dealt enough to bloat the rosters of a couple other teams.

Despite the intentions of a couple more teams to bail, those competitive teams who didn’t luck out in round one of bail season have the same constraints (roster violations, cap problems, not as attractive cheap player) dealing with you, a third, fourth or fifth team to declare, as they did with the first movers. This leaves you sitting in lower half of the standings with no real chance to win it all but no chance to sink to the bottom for free agent priority.

This is an uncomfortable place to be as your team can’t take the free-for-all risks on players the last place teams do nor can you expect to catch-up to the roster-enhanced teams at the top. Likely, you have already lost out on Carlos Gonzalez in free agent priority and stood no chance of grabbing the newest Washington Nationals closer Mike MacDougal.

What is needed, though rarely advised, is a strategy that straddles the fence between competing in 2009 and setting-up for a run in 2010 and beyond. In real life, people understand that sitting on the fence of a two-sided battle leaves one open to crossfire from both sides. In fantasy baseball, that knowledge leads many to conclude and/or advise that fantasy players should either go all out (Flags fly forever!) or quit entirely on the current season.

These intuitively appealing conclusions are then buttressed by the math of expected payouts that provides the sheen of mathematical certainty. If you decide the likelihood of finishing in the money is already small, the chance of winning everything is zero. Multiplying that probability by the payouts for each money finish gives an expected payout.

An easier way to figure this, and the one I believe is more frequently employed, is a payback analysis. If the first place finish is 10 times the entry fee, then one needs win just once every 10 years to break even. Who isn’t confident they can win more frequently than that? So the decision to go for it all next season has been intuitively and mathematically justified.

The monkey wrench is there are considerably fewer teams who can accept your out-of-time players and/or expensive keepers. What do you do? Many force a bail deal and end-up making trades that marginally look better for themselves only to see a piece get hurt, lose their job or get traded to the other league before 2010 rolls around. This isn’t the best option.

A better decision is to toss out the all-or-nothing, flags-fly-forever advise and the expected outcomes/payback analysis and semi-punt the season. Yes, sit on the fence. The question is how to execute this fence-straddling decision.

First, the counting categories on offense are nearly impossible to semi-bail on because every team knows home runs, RBIs, wins, strikeouts and saves. The place to look are the ratios categories. These escape the simple math of “+1” involved the counting categories.

Why? Ratios are basically weighted averages, and these are not intuitively appealing but work very slyly to improve a team on both ends. A ratio category worsens with every hit or walked allowed and every at-bat without an accompanying hit. That provides three ways to improve: by adding players who are net gains, subtracting net losses and avoiding negative outcomes.

Typically, this is easiest to do by dumping hitting in favor of pitching. Given your unimpressive performance, you’re likely in the bottom half of the pitching ratios anyhow. Every team has good hitters and understands them much better as a result of ease of counting math. The difference between the bailing team’s hitters and the winning ones are just magnitude. The teams at the top have 10 or more contributing hitters and those near the bottom have 7 or less due to inexplicable ineffectiveness (David Ortiz), injury or lack of opportunity.

What you do is look to deal your hitters for the other guys pitchers. A three-or four-for-one trade that nets you Yovanni Gallardo sets-up a possible ratio run as time passes. Given the ubiquity of the harmless middle reliever, you also begin to shed your mediocre starting pitching when you can’t trade it to set-up a synergistic situation that has you adding a high inning great ratios starter and avoiding high innings mediocre-to-bad ratios SP.

Does this work? Do you believe a team can successfully straddle between bailing and competing? Have you done it, intentionally or not?

Posted by Eric Hinz at 1:22am (2) Comments

Worst Monday: A weekly contest

For fantasy owners in weekly leagues, nothing's worse than a bad Monday—surveying the standings and finding that you're already 20 points down... that your hitters compiled more K's than a Duke basketball press release... that your starters pitched like promotional stars for "Up"... that your relievers rushed home baserunners like a hot take-out meal.

Well, we've decided to brighten one (un)lucky person's day. Each week, we'll put out the call for fantasy owners who had terrible, awful Mondays. The GM with the lowest point total for that Monday wins. To help set the person back on the right path, the winner will receive a year's subscription to Heater Magazine.

For this contest, we're concerned only with online points-based leagues with weekly scoring periods that start on Monday. Entering is easy:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

Entries that don't meet these criteria will not be considered. Don't submit an entry until all of Monday's games are finished.

We'll sift through the entries on Tuesday and announce the winner on Wednesday. We'll award one subscription per week; ties will be broken through random draw.

Best of (bad) luck!

Posted by John Burnson at 12:05am (1) Comments

Saturday, June 06, 2009

Hanrahan ousted… again

Joel Hanrahan has been removed as the Nationals' closer for the second time this season as fantasy owners are dashing to the wire for his replacement... Mike MacDougal. Go get him if he's still available, but know that he likely won't keep the job for long. There's actually very, very little chance he will. He hasn't been a quality pitcher in a couple of years. If you get him, start shopping him around. Any other closer would be an upgrade, and any ownable player would likely be a sufficient deal if nothing good turns up.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:04pm (0) Comments

Friday, June 05, 2009

LIPS in Heater Magazine

Sorry to hijack "Buy on the Rumor" for a minute, but for those readers who missed it on THT Live, Heater Magazine is now publishing LIPS statistics in every issue. Click here to learn more about Heater.

We now return to our regularly scheduled programming.

Posted by David Gassko at 5:42pm (0) Comments

Nolasco promoted

The Marlins have promoted SP Ricky Nolasco, who needs to be added in all but the shallowest leagues if his owner dropped him. It's tough to be as unlucky as he has appeared to be in 2009 without something being wrong, but his peripherals are all strong and he is well worth stashing in case this really is just really, really bad luck (which is absolutely a possibility). If I'm putting my money on it, I think Nolasco will turn it around and have a nice June through September.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:14pm (0) Comments

Roster Doctor - 6/4/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: Traditional 5x5
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: First year of dynasty league; Seven minor league slots; "Awesome league"
Roster:

C - Matt Wieters
1B - Billy Butler
2B - Brian Roberts
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Stephen Drew
OF - Nick Markakis
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Gerardo Parra
U - Luke Scott

P - Jonathan Broxton
P - Mariano Rivera
P - Josh Johnson
P - Javier Vazquez
P - Ryan Dempster
P - J.A. Happ
P - Jeff Niemann

BN - Manny Ramirez
BN - Russell Branyan
BN - Kelvim Escobar
BN - Gil Meche
BN - Franklin Morales
BN - Ricky Romero
BN - Jose Valverde
DL - John Smoltz
DL - Tim Hudson

ML - Aaron Hicks
ML - Michael Stanton
ML - Madison Bumgarner
ML - Clay Buchholz
ML - Jake Arrieta
ML - Jordan Walden
ML - Martin Perez

Well, your catcher spot is locked up for the next twenty years; congratulations. With Longoria, third base will not be a concern for quite some time as well.

Billy Butler is a relatively weak starting first baseman right now, but he is young enough (23), has a good minor league track record, and has performed well enough in the majors for me to be excited about his future. Roberts is one of my favorite palyers and is playing great this year, but in the next couple of years you will probably see his stolen base totals—the main source of his value along with his batting average—decrease dramatically, severely limiting his value. His average will probably suffer a bit also, but I can see it hanging around the .280 mark a few years past that.

Stephen Drew entering his prime at age 26 had a great season last year but cannot seem to do anything right this year. He went 0-for-4 with four strikeouts on his own bobblehead day! However, now would be the worst time to trade him since his value is probably the lowest it will be. He still has the skill set to have some good seasons in the near future, but I do not think he will ever develop into the All-Star player people once thought he could become.

His strikeout tendencies will prevent him from posting an average above the .290s and he has never displayed exceptional power or baserunning ability, so his ceiling is somewhat limited. Still, I can see him stringing together some solid seasons similar to his 2008 one in his late 20s, not that you are interested in three years down the road right now. Right now you should be happy Drew is showing some signs of life with his current seven-game hitting streak and just hold onto him.

Markakis and Bay are two great hitters, no reason to mess with them. And Parra is a solid, young fill-in until Manny's glorious return. Luke Scott's numbers are not as fluky as you might expect. Besides his home run totals, everything else is reasonable and he should play solidly the rest of the season at about a .285 average, 25 home run pace.

There is not much I would change about your hitting right now; if later in the season you decide to make a championship push this season, Scott, Drew, and Butler are three guys you can try to upgrade.

Your pitching is very top-heavy with the two big guns of Johnson and Vazquez heading your rotation, but after that there is a severe drop off. Although Meche and Demspter are seasoned veterans, they are not pitching that way and I would not start Dempster right now. Meche has been unlucky so far with a .344 BABIP so I can see him turning it around.

I like how you are taking the risk on young, high-upside guys like Happ, Romero, and Morales; any one or all of them could be a valuable asset in a few years. Niemann is not on the level of the others and would be the guy I cut if you want to free a roster spot for Smoltz or Hudson.

Overall, the best course of action is to sit tight with this team now. Near the trading deadline (if there is one) you should make the decision to either push for this year or wait another year. If you are still in the top three later in the year and do decide to make that push, sacrificing possible future production from a guy like Butler for a better player now is a necessary sacrifice to make because winning the championship just once makes it all worth it.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:47am

Waiver Wire

American League by Rob McQuown

Gordon Beckham | Chicago | INF
YTD: .299/.366/.497 (Double-A)
True Talent: .233/.293/.368
Next Week Forecast: N/A
In AL keeper leagues, it's probably right to blow your entire FA budget on this guy if he is available. As a hitter, Beckham has already been compared to Paul Molitor and Ryne Sandberg. He hit in Spring Training. He hit in the minors. And the Sox have a clear opening for him at 3B (and they aren't getting much from 2B, either), so he doesn't have to pull a Longoria to keep his roster spot. In AL re-draft leagues, he's worth gambling on, but not exciting.

Randy Choate | Tampa Bay | RP
YTD: 12.0 K/9, inf. K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.31 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 saves, 4.35 ERA
Saves on consecutive days?? Woo hoo! Randy Choate and his sub-90 fastball are the latest “find” of the clever Ball Street geniuses in Tampa. For his career, Choate has walked a guy every 2 IP, and he hasn't destroyed LHB as a LOOGY should, but his low SLG Allowed against both sides makes him useful. The Saves were sort of accidental, totaling just 1.0 IP combined. He won't hurt a team in an AL-only league.

Ben Francisco | Cleveland | OF
YTD: .269/.339/.443
True Talent: .265/.331/.434
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, .267 BA, 0.7 SB
Ben Francisco isn't a particularly good ballplayer, but sometimes “opportunity” is the most important thing. That, and “speed,” turn an ordinary player into someone who should be grabbed in most formats. With Sizemore possibly missing extensive time, Francisco should stay in the line-up and easily tally another 12-HR/12-SB (or more) the remainder of the year. And even without Grady, there are opportunities for Runs and RBI in this line-up.

Travis Hafner | Cleveland | DH
YTD: .270/.370/.540
True Talent: .260/.375/.473
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The guy who led the league in slugging in 2006 (.659 SLG) has been MIA since. The question is how much of that batter remains in 2009. Hafner is not old (just 32), and he has a big contract. The “safe” road is to assume that even the True Talent projection is too optimistic and to stay away; after all, he's not even rated at a position. But for a team in dire need of power, he has a puncher's chance of being good.

Josh Outman | Oakland | SP
YTD: 7.0 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.02 ERA
True Talent: 6.1 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.03 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 wins, 8 K, 4.65 ERA
One can almost hear Billy Beane last year saying “This guy is better than Blanton ALREADY!” as he lands Outman as a supposed throw-in with Adrian Cardenas. Outman throws 95 and plays in a pitcher's park for a team with a great defense. Four of his starts have been against the lightweight offenses of Chicago, KC, and Seattle, so expect some ERA inflation, and for sure his team doesn't score a lot. But Outman will be much better than the prediction. Could be spotted even in shallow mixed leagues.

Clayton Richard | Chicago | SP
YTD: 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 3.97 ERA
True Talent: 5.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.30 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 12.1 IP, 0.7 wins, 8 K, 4.37 ERA
Richard doesn't throw as hard as Outman, but he induces more ground balls. Overall, though, Richard is quite a bit riskier because of his home park. When Carlos Quentin returns, the Sox should score for Richard, but he is still only good enough to start against Oakland in a shallow mixed league, as both KC and Seattle hit LHP better than RHP. Richard should be a reliable innings-eater (but little more) in deeper leagues for many years.

Sean Rodriguez | Los Angeles | INF
YTD: .279/.364/.637 (Triple-A)
True Talent: .241/.312/.408
Next Week Forecast: N/A
We have seen how badly a swing-from-the-heels approach works for Angels prospects (see: Brandon Wood). “S-Rod” is slugging over .630 in Triple-A again, but his Ct% has dropped to 72% as he has whiffed 58 times in 209 AB. A former shortstop, Rodriguez is expected to be a fine defensive second baseman, but until he is traded out of L.A., he faces an almost insurmountable challenge between his skill set and Scioscia's preferences.

Luke Scott | Baltimore | OF/DH
YTD: .323/.399/.661
True Talent: .277/.360/.517
Next Week Forecast: 1.1 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .272 BA, 0.1 SB
In his career, Luke Scott has hit LHP as well as almost any lefty power hitter, and he sports a ridiculous .906 SLG against them this season. Sadly, he suffers from Trembley's lack of imagination—Scott didn't even start against Bedard, who has always been more vulnerable to lefties. Scott's reduced playing time dilutes his fantasy value, but the O's good offense makes him a decent option in shallow mixed leagues, and a great one in anything bigger.

National League by Michael Street

Clint Barmes | COL | MIF
YTD: .260/.317/.455
True Talent: .262/.311/.425
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 4 R, 3 RBI, .254 BA, 0.6 SB
Barmes has been sharing time at 2B, but now that Tulowitzki’s injury looks worse than expected, he could shift to SS. The dual qualification increases his value, even if True Talent isn't terribly impressed. Barmes is a good play at home, where his OPS is .920 (versus .650 away), and against lefties, where it’s 1.041 (versus .678 against righties). Play him situationally or ride his recent hot streak, but he’s best suited for NL-only leagues or 14-team or deeper mixed leagues.

Antonio Bastardo | PHI | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 1.50 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 5.47 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The Phillies brought up Bastardo, one of their top pitching prospects, to replace Brett Myers. A tired shoulder kept the 23-year-old from the majors last year, but his 2009 Triple-A line (9.6 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 1.89 ERA) says it's time. That line is eerily similar to what he put up in his first MLB start. True Talent is skeptical because Bastardo offers so little to go on (only 114 IP above Single-A); you have to trust the scouts on this one. Bastardo will almost certainly stumble at some point, but he is still worth a pick-up in NL leagues and 12-team and deeper leagues.

Joe Blanton | PHI | SP
YTD: 8.2 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 5.86 ERA
True Talent: 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 4.74 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 wins, 4 K, 5.11 ERA
After Blanton won three straight, fantasy owners grabbed him up. Unlike with Bastardo, though, Blanton has a lot of recent innings, and they point to a "True" ERA of 4.50-5.00. In one of his recent wins, Blanton allowed 5 Runs but the Phils scored 12; in another, he recorded an uncharacteristic 11 K. His YTD ratios would be career highs if he managed to sustain them, but don't bet on it. Don’t follow the crowd: Let another owner take Blanton.

Jake Fox | CHI | 1B/OF
YTD: .429/.500/.571
True Talent: .254/.311/.452
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, .260 BA, 0.1 SB
Fox ripped up Triple-A with a .424/.503/.881 line before getting called up, and he has looked good since. Unfortunately, his MLB line consists of 8 appearances in 5 games. Fox is blocked at 1B and OF, so the Cubs would like to use him at 3B, a position that he has played only 5 times since 2005. Unless he can make that shift or earn regular PT elsewhere, he is just someone you’ll want to watch.

Paul Maholm | PIT | SP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.82 ERA
True Talent: 5.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.23 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.1 IP, 0.4 wins, 4 K, 4.20 ERA
Maholm is like that last band at the end of the party: No matter how good he is, nobody’s watching. Just like that band, Maholm will sometimes be really good, sometimes awful. And he'll always be backed by the anemic Pirate offense. Frankly, he ought to be 6-4, as he has put up six great starts (2 ER or less) and four awful starts (4+ ER). But even at his best, his True Talent rates are marginal, though he does tend to have a strong GB/FB. Not a bad flyer if you don't care about Wins.

Andrew McCutchen | PIT | OF
YTD: .303/.361/.493 (Triple-A)
True Talent: .262/.332/.381
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The latest arrival on the Prospect Train is Andrew McCutchen, someone whom you want on your team for his batting eye (career 0.64 K/BB, steadily improving to 0.78 K/BB last year) and his speed (34 SB last season, and 105 SB total). Like all prospects, the 22-year-old McCutchen will hit some bumps, and he might never display the power he once promised. But NL-only leagues, keeper leagues, and anyone who could use more steals had better take him.

Randy Wells | CHI | SP
YTD: 7.6 K/9, 3.86 K/BB, 1.69 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.49 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 wins, 5 K, 4.33 ERA
Wells got pulses pounding this week when he carried a no-no into the seventh, but it wasn’t his only strong start in 2009. He got hard-luck losses in three of his first four starts, giving up 5 ER total against 9 runs of support. Wells could stick after Rich Harden returns, since True Talent likes his stuff. He’s a good short-term risk for owners in NL leagues or those deeper than 14 teams.

Chris Young | ARI | OF
YTD: .172/.216/.299
True Talent: .234/.297/.427
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .234 BA, 0.6 SB
You could speculate on a rebound based on Young’s True Talent numbers, but even those are not all that robust. Young might recapture his speed and power someday, just not any time soon. He looks lost at the plate, and he can’t give you steals if he can’t get on base. The only reason that Young is playing now is because Conor Jackson is on the DL—when CoJack returns, Young is AAA-bound. In the near term, you don’t want any part of this guy.

Posted by THT Staff at 12:37am (8) Comments

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Giambi down not out

Jason Giambi hit a three-run home run in today's game vs. the White Sox, making it his third round tripper in five games. In deep mixed leagues (16+ teams) and AL-Only leagues Giambi makes for an intriguing source of cheap home runs. You'll have to stomach the paltry .250 average at best, but for teams desperate for power Giambi can be a smart add if he stays hot.

Posted by Paul Singman at 7:33pm

McCutchen leading off

Pirates OF prospect Andrew McCutchen did indeed lead off today's game, pushing Nyjer Morgan to the #2 spot and leading the team to put Freddy Sanchez in the #3 spot (what?!). This would make him at least a two category contributor (steals and runs) and possibly a three category guy (average), so he can be owned in deep mixed leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:30pm (0) Comments

Demotion for Atkins?

Rockies 3B Garrett Atkins may get demoted as his rough start to the season has continued into June. If he does get demoted, Ian Stewart would probably take most of the playing time at third. Since the team would probably like to trade Atkins, I imagine he'd be called back up shortly after he starts hitting at Triple-A and would be back by July.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:28pm (2) Comments

How lucky can one guy get?

Slot machines are pure luck: you put your coin in, you pull the lever, and you take your chances. Repeat as often as you like or until you get a free drink. The longer you play, the more likely you are to end up with about the average outcome (which for slots is a negative amount—the house always wins). This is a version of the law of large numbers.

Now that the season is more than a quarter over, lots of batters have been playing their version of a slot machine for a while. Every time a batter puts a ball in play, he pulls a lever on the fielding slot machine. Sometimes he gets lucky and it is a hit and sometimes he gets unlucky and it is an out. The well known statistic Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP) tracks the average number of hits on balls in play.

Equally well known is that players' skills have little impact on their BABIP; once the batter puts the ball in play (home runs don't count), whether or not the ball goes for a hit has little to do with the name on the back of the batter's jersey.

In this article, I'm going to do three things: I'm going to equate the luck on balls in play to a version of a coin flip, I'll then simulate some of these coin flips and show that it looks a lot like the outcomes that batters have thus far in the season, and, then lastly, we will see that players can still be pretty lucky after only a quarter of a season. What are the practical implications? After a quarter of a season, you should still be skeptical (though not necessarily incredulous) towards players' performances.

As we'll see, the slot machine that a player plays when he puts the ball in play doesn't have to be complex. In fact, let's just suppose that this machine is a simple weighted coin flip. Instead of a 50-50 chance of heads and tails, let's suppose the coin is 30-70. So 30 percent of the time the coin comes up heads and the player gets a hit, 70 percent of the time it goes for an out.

A player's total number of hits and his BABIP after, say, 200 balls in play are random (just like the total number of times heads comes up after 200 coin flips is random). In fact, the distribution of hits and BABIPs (a distribution is sort of like the percentage of time we can expect to observe, say, 78 hits on 200 balls in play) is given by the binomial distribution. It is pretty easy to use a computer to simulate outcomes from a binomial distribution and compare it to the data we have so far from the season.

What I've done: I've taken each batter with at least 100 at-bats (243 batters). I've computed the number of hits in play (hits - home runs) for these batters and their BABIP. For each batter, I've then calculated what their batting average could look like if each at-bat was simulated and the outcome determined by a binomial random variable with the same average success rate (30.3 percent).

The graph below shows the number of hits we get from the data (blue) and from the simulation (red). Not bad (if you're really curious, the two distributions are considered statistically identical according to a Komologorov-Smirnov Test). We can smooth things out and compute a distribution for each—that's the next figure. The third graph is the same smoothed distribution, only this time for actual and simulated BABIPs. On this one, the match is even better.

What can we see from these graphs? The average number of balls in play for each batter is fairly high: 127. As far as statistics is concerned, 127 is a lot of coin flips. You might have read or heard other fantasy commentators say something like "Now that we're in June, we don't have to worry as much about small sample sizes." While that is still literally true, the third graph shows that there is still a lot of variation left in the data. In fact, if you look at the CDF (cumulative density function), you can see that as of June 1, fifteen percent of players still have a BABIP below .250 even though their expected BABIP is .303. That is, even though the coin they are flipping should come up heads 30.3 percent of the time, they've gotten unlucky routinely and have only gotten heads less than 25 percent of the time.

My final graph shows what happens if we simulate 500 balls, or roughly four times the number of balls in play. The blue line is the same simulation from before, with on average 127 balls in play per batter. The green line simulates 243 batters with 500 balls in play using the binomial distribution. As we can see, the more balls in play we have, the more likely we are to get the median outcome and the less likely we are to get extreme outcomes.

In other words, in June, after 125 balls in play, a batter can still be lucky and have a high BABIP. In September, it should be far harder to have had a season of luck. So in June you must still be aware of the small sample.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:35am (8) Comments

Wednesday, June 03, 2009

Gordon Beckham recalled

Busy day. The White Sox recalled top prospect MI Gordon Beckham from Triple-A this evening, designating CI Wilson Betemit for assignment. Unless the team wants to bench 2B Chris Getz or 3B Josh Fields, Beckham's playing time will probably come piecemeal, splitting time between 2B, 3B, and SS. He'll also probably have a chance to overtake Getz or Fields at some point if he hits well, but he should probably get close to regular at-bats anyway. I doubt the team would recall him just to sit on the bench.

AL-only leaguers, go get him now if he's not already owned. Mixed leaguers can probably hold off for now. He doesn't really excel in any one category, and he probably won't show much speed at all. His batting average might be serviceable and he has a little power, though it's yet to be seen where he'll hit in the order for RBI and runs. Probably in the 7-8-9 area to start.

MI Jayson Nix will probably lose some at-bats with this move.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:09pm (0) Comments

McCutchen called up

As I suspected earlier this evening following the Nate McLouth trade, Pirates top prospect OF Andrew McCutchen has been called up. He'll start tomorrow night. Go get him NL-only leaguers. Mixed leaguers, show some restraint unless you're going to try and spin him off immediately.

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:09pm (0) Comments

McLouth traded to Braves

First big trade of the year. Pirates OF Nate McLouth has supposedly been traded to the Atlanta Braves for prospects P Charlie Morton, P Jeff Locke, and OF Gorkys Hernandez (h/t Rotoworld). This is great news for Brandon Moss owners (like me in LABR NL!) as he no longer has to worry about being replaced when the team decides Andrew McCutchen is ready. Nyjer Morgan's playing time is also secure now, and this improves the short-term value of OF Craig Monroe and OF Eric Hinske.

It also could mean that a McCutchen promotion is upcoming. I'd grab him in all NL-only leagues but only in the deepest of mixed leagues where you're desperate for steals. With the emergence of Morgan, he almost certainly will not lead off and may only provide real value in one category.

As for the Braves situation, Gregor Blanco looked like he would be starting with Jordan Schafer demoted, but now he'll have to settle for a fourth outfielder/platoon role.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:31pm (0) Comments

Glavine released, Hanson promoted

The Braves have released SP Tom Glavine and will promote top prospect Tommy Hanson to start on Saturday (h/t Rotoworld). All NL-only leagues in which he's not owned, get him now! He should also be stashed in all but the most shallow mixed leagues. This will likely wreck the short-term value of SP Kris Medlen, who is moving to the bullpen. He could put up good numbers in relief for NL-only leaguers, so don't drop him yet. He could move back into the rotation if Javier Vazquez or someone gets traded.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:28pm (0) Comments

Howie Kendrick to minors?

The Angels are apparently seriously contemplating sending Howie Kendrick to the minors. If they were to do this, they'd have a few options:
1) Replace him with Sean Rodriguez
2) Move Chone Figgins to 2B and let Brandon Wood play at 3B
3) Let Maicer Izturis start at 2B

My money would be on Sean Rodriguez, who has nice power for a 2B and also has a little speed. AL-only leaguers need to stash him now, and deep-ish mixed leaguers should keep tabs.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:07pm (0) Comments

2009 LIPS ERA Leaders

Hey guys,
David Gassko informed me that he's recently made some tweaks to the LIPS formula, so here are updated numbers to account for them. The list is pretty similar with a few changes.

LIPS ERA Top 25 (through 6/2/09)

+------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| LAST       | FIRST    | GS | IP   | ERA  | LIPS ERA | K/9   | BB/9 | xGB%  | IF FB% |
+------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+
| Greinke    | Zack Z   | 11 | 82.0 | 1.10 |     2.77 |  9.66 | 1.32 | 44.33 |   3.94 |
| Santana    | Johan    | 11 | 72.0 | 2.00 |     2.83 | 11.13 | 2.63 | 32.79 |  11.48 |
| Lincecum   | Tim      | 11 | 71.7 | 3.01 |     3.13 | 11.43 | 2.64 | 45.90 |   2.73 |
| Vazquez    | Javier   | 11 | 70.3 | 3.58 |     3.16 | 11.00 | 2.05 | 45.30 |   3.87 |
| Peavy      | Jake     | 12 | 74.7 | 4.10 |     3.20 | 10.13 | 3.13 | 40.64 |   4.28 |
| Halladay   | Roy      | 12 | 91.0 | 2.77 |     3.26 |  8.11 | 1.19 | 55.94 |   2.68 |
| Haren      | Dan      | 11 | 78.0 | 2.42 |     3.30 |  9.00 | 1.15 | 40.39 |   2.96 |
| Verlander  | Justin B | 11 | 69.3 | 3.63 |     3.36 | 11.68 | 2.60 | 31.58 |   2.92 |
| Harden     | Rich     |  8 | 43.7 | 4.74 |     3.37 | 10.92 | 4.33 | 38.53 |   9.17 |
| Weaver     | Jered D  | 10 | 68.7 | 2.36 |     3.40 |  6.95 | 2.36 | 33.16 |   7.65 |
| Hamels     | Cole     |  9 | 48.3 | 5.21 |     3.42 |  9.31 | 1.86 | 43.48 |   2.90 |
| Johnson    | Randy    | 10 | 52.0 | 5.71 |     3.63 |  9.35 | 3.29 | 46.21 |   3.45 |
| Hernandez  | Felix A  | 11 | 71.3 | 3.41 |     3.67 |  9.08 | 2.52 | 49.76 |   2.44 |
| Johnson    | Josh     | 11 | 74.3 | 2.66 |     3.68 |  7.75 | 2.18 | 54.98 |   2.84 |
| Slowey     | Kevin    | 11 | 68.0 | 3.97 |     3.70 |  6.49 | 0.93 | 34.63 |   5.63 |
| Jackson    | Edwin    | 11 | 74.3 | 2.30 |     3.74 |  6.90 | 2.18 | 36.28 |   6.05 |
| Scherzer   | Max M    | 10 | 54.3 | 4.47 |     3.85 |  9.44 | 3.64 | 43.14 |   2.61 |
| Oswalt     | Roy      | 12 | 69.3 | 4.28 |     3.91 |  7.14 | 2.47 | 41.23 |   5.69 |
| Lester     | Jon T    | 11 | 65.3 | 5.65 |     3.92 | 10.19 | 3.31 | 45.16 |   2.15 |
| Bedard     | Erik     | 10 | 60.7 | 2.37 |     3.92 |  9.05 | 2.67 | 41.72 |   4.29 |
| Baker      | Scott S  |  9 | 52.7 | 6.32 |     3.94 |  6.66 | 1.71 | 29.07 |   8.14 |
| de la Rosa | Jorge A  | 10 | 54.7 | 5.43 |     3.97 |  9.38 | 4.28 | 43.92 |   4.05 |
| Gallardo   | Yovani   | 10 | 65.0 | 3.18 |     3.98 |  9.00 | 3.32 | 43.68 |   2.30 |
| Richmond   | Scott    |  9 | 54.0 | 3.50 |     3.99 |  7.33 | 3.00 | 41.25 |   4.38 |
| Pavano     | Carl     | 11 | 63.0 | 5.29 |     4.01 |  7.14 | 1.86 | 46.23 |   3.52 |
+------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+

Also, there was a good comment that I think should be given more attention: "Does this mean I should pickup and stash Blanton and De La Rosa?" The answer is "No, not necessarily." What LIPS ERA gives us is a luck-neutral indication of how well a pitcher has performed so far this year. It is a much more solid indicator than ERA, but it is not the be-all-end-all. Just because Edwin Jackson has a 3.74 LIPS ERA right now does not mean he will post a 3.74 ERA going forward.

What we're looking at right now is a 65 (or so) inning sample of a player's true pitching ability. This sample is relatively small in the grand scheme of things and should not be the only thing considered. To better estimate a pitcher's true ability, we need to look at a larger sample — i.e. his performance in previous years. While LIPS ERA is much more stable than actual ERA, it is still prone to small sample size caveats.

As an example, let's say you go to a restaurant and have an awful meal. While the restaurant may truly be an awful one, we can't say for sure after one single meal. Maybe you go there another five times and have really good meals. The more times we go to the restaurant, the more accurate we will be when we talk about the overall quality of the restaurant. If we simply judged it by any single meal, though, the chances of being wrong would be relatively large.

If we roll a six-sided die twice and it lands on '3' both times, are we going to say that this die is more likely to land on '3' than any other number? Of course not. The sample we're basing this on is too small. If we roll that die another thousand times, I can assure you it will land on each number about evenly.

The same logic applies here. Right now in 2009, we're looking at one meal (or one die roll). For the guys on the list, it's a very good meal, but one meal nonetheless. It's certainly better than if it were a bad meal (or a bad LIPS ERA), but we still need more to go on before we make any definitive assertions. A lot can happen over 65 innings. For those who followed CAPS in the off-season, we see that a lot can happen with a pitcher's peripherals over the course of an entire season.

One thing to keep in mind is for leagues where you can stash players on your bench. In this case, even though Carl Pavano may not be a true 4.01 ERA pitcher, it might be worth holding onto him to see if he is. Maybe his true talent level has changed and we just don't know it yet because the 'meals' that will tell us this haven't happened yet — they'll be happening throughout the rest of the season.

Hopefully this helps put things into better perspective for everyone.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:12pm (21) Comments

Why daily fantasy sports contests are a better investment than the stock market

I firmly believe that daily fantasy sports contests are a better investment than the stock market. Actually, I should clarify that. I firmly believe that for someone who has had an overall winning record in daily fantasy sports contests, they are a better investment than buying and holding a portfolio of stocks in the future. Obviously, fantasy contests of any sort are not a good investment for losing players. And other than in cases where sites offer "freerolls" or "overlays" to generate new business, daily fantasy contests will be a negative sum game for the "average" player, while the stock market is probably a positive sum game.

So what exactly am I saying? I’m saying that daily fantasy contests have lower variance than buying and holding a portfolio of stocks. That means that your past results give you a much better idea of whether you’re making good picks in daily contests, and that your future performance will be a lot more consistent. If you’re a winning player, you can count on a much higher percentage of winning days, months, and years than in the stock market, and the downswings should be much smaller relative to the growth of your bankroll.

To make any kind of fair comparison, we need to set up some parameters. For the stock market, I’m talking about a portfolio of U.S. common stocks. The best comparison to that in the daily fantasy world would be playing a bunch of heads up contests each day, with similar (but not identical) lineups. Each day, each stock may go up or down. The various stocks in the group will show moderate (but far from perfect) correlation with each other in their daily performance. Each day, you may win or lose each fantasy baseball contest. Your results in each contest on the same day will show moderate (but far from perfect) correlation with each other.

Let’s look at stocks first. What percentage of days will my portfolio of stocks go up? I don’t have the data available, but I suspect it’s around 50.5%. What percentage of months? I’m going to guess around 52% or 53%. Years? This one I actually remember reading about … the U.S. stock market has gone up in 57% of years. That’s an old statistic, but probably still not far off.

How about fantasy contests? What percentage of days will I come out a winner? Let’s assume that I’m a very good player, going up against average competition. I’d guess that I’m coming out ahead at least 55% of the time. If that’s the case, and I’m playing almost every day, what percentage of months will be winners? I think estimating 75% is conservative. Years? Again being conservative, I’m going to say 90%. I suspect the actually number is above 95%. Even the best stock pickers would have trouble getting that kind of results.

Assuming that I’m right about these percentages, the question is why this would be the case. Do daily fantasy contests have some characteristics that the stock market lacks that make them easier for skilled players to beat? I think they do. And I think that those characteristics have to do with what makes markets of all sorts more or less "efficient." Here are the three factors that I think going into creating an inefficient, or easily beatable market or game:

New markets: Daily fantasy contests have only been around for about two years. Most of the people who will ultimately be most successful at them probably don’t even know they exist yet. The stock market has been around for hundreds of years, and many of the best and brightest people spend their lifetime studying how to select stocks that will be winners. In other words, daily contests provide weaker competition.

Closed markets: Each daily fantasy contest is a "closed market" in the sense that entry is limited to a fixed number of participants. Once two people are entered in a heads-up contest, nobody else can enter that contest. That means that sometimes you’ll find yourself in a contest against only weak participants. In the stock market, stronger "competitors" can always get involved.

No Scalability: The size of "bet" that can be made in each fantasy contests is limited. Each participant in a $33 contest can only invest $33 in that contest. In the stock market, "bet size" is theoretically unlimited. That, combined with the openness of the markets, means that a single person with unlimited funds and omniscience can theoretically remove ALL of the inefficiency or profit opportunities.

On a separate note, I'd like to invite readers to take a look at the new site I launched this week in conjuntion with Dave Hall of Rotoguru. The site is Daily Baseball Data, and will showcase a variety of tools for players of fantasy baseball formats that use daily transactions. The initial three tools are:

1. MLB Weather Dashboard - Hour by hour forecasts for all games displayed on one screen.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher Report - Showing history of matchups for all of the day's games.

3. Sortable Statistics - For a variety of daily transaction contest formats.

Posted by Alex Zelvin at 2:18am

The problem with Javier Vazquez: Bunching hits and walks?

Let's start with some quotes...

Part of Vazquez's inability to win at home so far can be attributed to hard luck, but part of it can also be explained by his tendency to be victimized by one bad inning.
—MLB.com

Vazquez's problem has been one bad inning, usually the fifth or sixth.
—Chicago Tribune

He holds the patent on the Really Bad Pitch and is currently litigating for trademark rights to the term "One Bad Inning,"
—ESPN (Keith Law)

This time, Javier Vazquez didn't have reason to be frustrated about that one bad inning that doomed him courtesy of a number of soft singles.
—MLB.com

Javy has three quality pitches, but the one thing that has got him into trouble this year is just one bad inning, a hiccup. ... When he avoids that, he has been dominant.
—Mark Grace

Javier Vazquez had that one bad inning syndrome thing we had heard so much about when he came over here, though, like Frenchy said, it wasn't like they hit him hard or anything.
—Talking Chop

Vazquez has a reputation as a “1 bad inning” guy. Now, I have yet to find anyone who has actually studied his game lines to see if he’s prone to clumping his hits and walks together (producing more runs than expected for that numbers of hits/walks), but it’s at least logically possible, and given his reputation, it’s worth investigating.
—Commenter "Mark" on my Vazquez article from Monday

On Monday, I talked about why I believe Javier Vazquez will be one of the top pitchers in baseball this year. A couple commenters were less than convinced, saying that even with the improved peripherals predicted by CAPS (and which he is currently displaying), he still may not get to that elite level. I pasted an excerpt from commenter Mark above, essentially summarizing what so many sportswriters have been saying for years. Today, I'd like to examine whether or not this is actually true of Vazquez or if it is simply incorrect conventional wisdom that has developed into a sort of conformation bias each time it happens.

Methods

To test the validity of the claim, I used the ever-useful Retrosheet to examine Vazquez dating back to 2004. There were a couple different ways to tackle the problem, but I went with what Mark suggested—how often Vazquez bunches hits and walks (and HBP) together, "producing more runs than expected for that numbers of hits/walks."

To define "bunching," I'll say that it is any inning in which Vazquez allows more hits and walks than his WHIP would indicate. As almost every pitcher posts a WHIP between 1.00 and 2.00, every inning in which he allows two or more runners will be examined. In my calculations, I broke things down by the percentage of time Vazquez allowed at least two, three, four, five, six, and seven hits and walks in an inning.

[For those really interested, I made sure to use the number of instances in which a pitcher started an inning, not his total combined innings for the year (i.e. when a pitcher is taken out after recording just one out, this counts as a full inning for our purposes).]

In addition to testing Vazquez's numbers, I also ran the numbers for league average. I wanted to test a group of pitchers with similar peripherals to Vazquez as well, but I couldn't quite get it done in time. I may post those results in the future, though it's entirely possible they don't differ too terribly much from league average.

Results

If you'd like to see the results for each year individually, click here.

Overall, the results don't lend too much weight to the arguments that Vazquez is prone to bunching his hits and walks together. He has been better than average in allowing two, five, and six H/BB innings and below average at three, four, and seven H/BB innings, but not by a whole lot (he also never allowed more than seven, while some pitchers allowed as many as 11). In addition, there doesn't appear to be any recognizable year-to-year trend. He was almost exactly league average in 2004 and 2005, terrific in 2007, and poor in 2006 and 2008.

The fact that he is below average in the three and four H/BB innings might lead us to believe that this is what sportswriters are seeing, but what we're really looking at is just 0.7% more three- and four-runner innings than league average. That comes out to 1.5 innings per season (assuming 210 innings pitched). Plus, in the really damaging five- and six-runner innings, he's a bit better than league average.

The net result of his 2004-2008 work is actually the bunching of 1.6 fewer hits and walks than league average per 216 inning appearances (his average number pitched since 2004). If you want to exclude the innings with two hits and walks (which are much less likely to end in runs scoring), he would still only be bunching 5.4 hits and walks more than league average. Exclude the three H/BB innings? Drops to 5.1. Hardly seems condemning, and although it would be useful to see what similarly good pitchers are doing, I think it's relatively safe to say that Vazquez isn't some super-magnet for quick, sudden blow-ups.

Conclusions

More likely, I'd wager we're seeing at least some degree of confirmation bias. After all, a full 16 percent of Vazquez's innings have resulted in three or more hits and walks. That raw percentage is pretty high. While this comes with the territory for all pitchers, because Vazquez has such a reputation for it, it gets noticed and pointed out much more often when it happens to him.

I may delve a little deeper in the future, but for now, I think this should definitely give us something to think about. At the very least, it means we shouldn't rule out the possibility that he'll pitch like an ace for the remainder of 2009. In fact, I think it makes it a little more likely.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am (18) Comments

Tuesday, June 02, 2009

Perez potentially back in the mix

Maybe not tomorrow, a week from now, or even a month from now; but sometime this season Cards reliever Chris Perez could see some save opportunities. Even though it may appear on the surface current closer Ryan Franklin is pitching great, (1.35 ERA, 12 for 13 in save opps) he is not dominating hitters with a mere 15 strikeouts in 20 innings and is benefiting from an absurd .195 BABIP. Based on his peripherals he is pitching at the level of a 4.00 ERA pitcher.

In contrast, Perez has shown improved command over his last six appearances, having given up only one walk and continues to blow hitters away with a K/9 in the elevens. Perez has struggled with controls issues in the past, so it is critical to keep an eye on his walk rates and make sure they continue to fall. When he limits the free passes though, Perez is a tough pitcher to score runs against and just might regain the closer role he almost won in Spring Training.

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:28pm (2) Comments

Downloadable data: 2009 ADPs

One of the most important stats in fantasy baseball is Average Draft Position, or ADP, because it accurately shows how a player is valued by the fantasy community at large. ADP numbers can be compared against end of season numbers to show which players outperformed expectations the most, or be used to identify the optimal time for taking certain players.

The main reason, I think, that you do not see this type of analysis being done is that nobody has the ADP database to do so. Even though the big sites like Yahoo ang ESPN have the numbers up on their sites for free, nobody seems willing to put in the time to copy and store them down.

That is where I came in last year, when I decided it would be a good idea to get an ADP database started. One year's worth of data would not be very valuable, but a few years' worth and I knew I would have a valuable resource on my hands that could lead to new and interesting analysis being done.

With the 2009 drafts in the books, I spent the time this weekend compiling all of the ADP numbers from ESPN and Yahoo into compact spreadsheets for you to download at your convenience. The links to download the spreadsheets containing the 2009 data are found below:

Yahoo_2009_ADP.xls

ESPN_2009_ADP.xls

And now here are the links to download the 2008 numbers if you did not last year. Even if you downloaded them last year, you should replace those with the spreadsheets I am providing now because this year I put in a little extra effort to make the list with every position mixed include the players' positions.

Yahoo_2008_ADP.xls

ESPN_2008_ADP.xls

There you have it. I'll let you all go with a disclaimer about these numbers I said in my article last year:

The biggest issue with these numbers is the bias that come along with them. If you recall your fantasy baseball draft on either site, you will remember that Yahoo and ESPN (and all drafting sites for that matter) list the available players by their—the site's own personal—rankings. Not only does this influence people when drafting, but it also inflates the ADP of higher ranked players when auto-picking occurs, which happens surprisingly often. That is the major flaw in these numbers.

Download away! And if anyone happens to have ADP numbers from season before 2008, let me know.

Posted by Paul Singman at 8:00am

The art of selling low

Now that the baseball season has passed June 1, roughly a third of the season is over. It's high trading season, and some fantasy teams are beginning to consider that the investment they made during draft time on a particular player doesn’t necessarily equate to that player’s true value.

For example, to get Francisco Liriano in a draft, someone would have had to invest a sixth or seventh round pick in a 12-team league. The Twins pitcher has slumped this season so far — but hey, pitchers are prone to bad luck for good stretches of time. Unfortunately, Liriano sports a 5.04 FIP and a 4.96 xERA, which tells us that although Liriano may be a bit unlucky, a pot of gold doesn’t look likely around the bend.

Some owners will stubbornly wait until the Minnesota Lake freezes over to see if Liriano can pull it together—the 2008 season offers a bit of hope—while others may open themselves to recouping at least some of the investment by trading him.

Fantasy experts love to tell their followers which players they should buy low, but much more problematic are the candidates to be sold low. And even when pundits finally find it within themselves to hum a few notes of requiem on a former superstar—David Ortiz is done!—you may as well be given a shovel to dig the grave.

Let’s not give up so easily: Selling low is tough, but it’s not impossible.

In my experience, most teams will pull the trigger on a trade if they see three things in a player being offered.

First, brand quality. They are being offered a player who has a reputation for being solid and consistent for a long period of time.

Second, recent performance. They are being offered a player who has flourished in recent weeks, signaling no hidden risk.

Third, fills a need. They are being offered a player who will surely help them out.

Unfortunately, any holder of a troubled asset has only brand quality to market. David Ortiz and Francisco Liriano have track records of success in the majors. Just not recent ones. And most teams will make trades out of need—not out of speculation that a struggling player will rebound and help them out down the line.

But there are always exceptions.

Not every team has the same tolerance for risk. Some teams are struggling in the standings. Some are doing well. Some teams have deep benches. Others have ones that are already stacked with disappointing upside gambles. Figuring out a potential trading partner’s capacity for making a gamble is part of the due diligence that’s necessary for getting decent return on a player whose stock has sunk.

Also, all teams have troubled assets. Not all players are disappointing for the same reasons, though. Some are serving 50-game steroids suspensions. Others are on the disabled list. And then there are the players who only seem like disappointments, but are merely getting unlucky. All good targets.

Finally, it always helps to be creative in deal-making. Perhaps selling a struggling, high-risk player on his own merits little interest. What if the player is packaged with a high-performing player? In investment, this is often called securitization, where assets are pooled together and repackaged in a way where the risk/upside ratio becomes acceptable and attractive to a buyer.

Yes, it’s always best to buy low and sell high. Everyone wants to do that these days. But figuring out a way to get some return from high investments that have depreciated in value should not be ignored as an important component of success.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 7:19am (2) Comments

Roster Doctor - 6/02/09

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 14
Categories: Yahoo! 6x6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, Batting Avg., OPS) (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/9)
Scoring Type: Rotisserie
Misc.: Teams carry 2 UTIL spots on offense.

C - Bengie Molina
1B - Paul Konerko
2B - Felipe Lopez
SS - Troy Tulowitzki
3B - Mark Reynolds
OF - Jason Bay
OF - Adam Jones
OF - Bobby Abreu
UTIL - Lance Berkman
UTIL - Juan Pierre
BN - Luis Castillo
BN - Kendry Morales
BN - Pat Burrell

SP - Tim Lincecum
SP - Josh Outman
RP - Ryan Franklin
RP - John Grabow
RP - Dan Wheeler
RP - JP Howell
RP - Jason Isringhausen
BN - John Danks
BN - Kenshin Kawakami

DL - Jose Valverde
DL - Brandon Webb

Further notes about the team:

1. Dropped Gil Meche after suffering through the pitcher's bad start.
2. Dropped Kelly Johnson to pick up Luis Castillo.
3. After hearing about Troy Percival, picked up every breathing soul in the Tampa Bay bullpen.
4. Has unsuccessfully tried to trade hitting for pitching.
5. Slowly slipping in the standards due to poor pitching.

I think you're being a bit too rash. Of course, Gil Meche and Kelly Johnson haven't lived up to expectations, but both have been the victims of very poor luck this season. I consider it likely that both will sport better numbers in the future, but I guess what's done is done.

The real question is how to salvage the pitching. Right now, I see two legitimate starters in a 14-team league—Lincecum and Danks—and frankly, that's not enough. Josh Outman has a surprising 3.06 ERA and a nice 40-21 strikeout-to-walk rate, but he's too young and does not possess a solid enough body of work to be any more than a #4 or #5 in this kind of league.

I think you need at least two more starters. Who might be droppable?

Chasing saves is a necessary evil in many leagues and having a category that counts K/9 certainly raises the incentive towards carrying multiple relievers. That said, after Isringhausen's flameout in his first save opportunity last week, we can't see much reason to hold onto him.

We also don't see much reason to hold Luis Castillo, especially in a league that counts OPS as a category.

Isringhausen and Castillo seem the most logical candidates to drop for starters off the waiver wire. Obviously, target starters with good strikeout rates.

Who are your best trade candidates?

Well, if you can get anything for Juan Pierre, go for it. He's having a great season, but his value will be kept in check in an OPS league that hates his slugging ability. Since he's batting near .400, and some teams are bound to need speed, maybe you can get something.

The other candidate I might look to trade, believe it or not, is Brandon Webb. Your team needs pitching help right away, and Webb carries a lot of injury risk. Many teams will be attracted to the prospect of having an ace-caliber pitcher like Webb, so he might at least return someone like Jon Lester. (Also, note that Lester's been struggling, but posts a stronger strikeout rate than Webb and will offer you more wins than a pitcher who plays for a poor offense. You may be able to get Lester plus something else.) After you move Webb, you can then push Burrell to DL, clearing up another roster spot for use.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 7:14am (0) Comments

Monday, June 01, 2009

There’s gold in them thar hills!

The Rockies outfield situation is a true logjam right now. While logjams can cause frustration for fantasy owners who see their players drop into time-shares, logjams are also great places to look for hidden talent.

Right now the Rockies are going predominantly with the lineup of Brad Hawpe in right, rookie Dexter Fowler in center, and Ryan Spilborghs and Seth Smith splitting the duties in left. That is merely their predominant lineup. Some nights Spilly will slide over to center and a player not even mentioned yet, Matt Murton, will get the start in left. And then there is center fielder Carlos Gonzalez who is raking to the tune of .333/.421/.598 in Triple-A. That makes a potential six players for three positions.

Right now Hawpe is the only definite everyday starter as he is having himself a very nice season, batting .348 with seven home runs and 39 RBI thus far. With a relatively cheap contract and the Rockies slow start however, Hawpe is most likely going to be traded sometime before the trading deadline.

Fowler is having a decent season in the majors; not good but not bad either for a rookie. I do not see him getting sent down to Triple-A and the Rockies probably want him playing everyday, so his playing time seems fairly secure to me.

The other three players—Spilborghs, Smith, and Murton—are all involved a crapshoot as to who will end up getting the most playing time the rest of the way. Right now Murton (who was mashing Triple-A pitching before getting called-up, albeit as a 26 year old) is the odd man-out, although that can change at any moment's notice.

Despite Gonzalez' success in Triple-A, he most likely will remain there until September when he could be a late call up. The Rockies want to see increased maturity and sustained success from him before potentially rushing him to the majors as the A's did last year.

Although murky now, by mid-summer the Rockies outfield situation should be somewhat resolved. My advice is simply to remain aware of what is going on in the Rockies outfield and the player I'd be looking to jump on at the first sign of increased playing time is Matt Murton because 1) he is not owned in most leagues and 2) has the skills to put up solid numbers if given the playing time. Right now you can let him sit in free agency, though.

Posted by Paul Singman at 9:43pm

Playing with your Putz

Quick - name the right-handed reliever in the Mets bullpen that throws 98 mph. It isn't J.J. Putz, at least not these days. Tonight, as in the recent past, Putz hasn't looked sharp, throwing mainly low-90's fastballs and few split-fingers. If you're looking for holds or a few cheap saves, I'd start perusing in the Bobby Parnell aisle.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 10:19pm (0) Comments

Brewers looking for a front-line starter?

There's been talk lately of the Brewers looking for a front-line starter (like they did last year with C.C. Sabathia). Jake Peavy has been mentioned, and apparently Javier Vazquez (whom I discussed in my article today) is a guy that the Braves could consider dealing as the deadline approaches (h/t MLBTR). This would open up a spot for super-prospect Tommy Hanson even if Tom Glavine comes back healthy and effective (a big IF for sure).

If the Brewers were to acquire a pitcher like this, they'd likely need to trade a top prospect or two (Mat Gamel, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, etc) and maybe a younger major league player, and the move would push someone out of their rotation. Jeff Suppan would be the smartest move, though Braden Looper and Dave Bush wouldn't necessarily be 100% safe, depending on how they're pitching at that time.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:05pm (0) Comments

RSS Feeds

A few people e-mailed me to ask about RSS feeds for "Buy on the Rumor," so I figured I would let all our readers know that BoTR posts have now been integrated into our THT Fantasy feeds. As always, we're here to serve so .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) if you have any other requests.

Posted by David Gassko at 10:51am (0) Comments

Another welcome to the new THT Fantasy

I know David Gassko rolled out the official welcome wagon yesterday, but I thought I'd pop in too and welcome you all to the new THT Fantasy website (especially now that we don't have to worry about articles getting lost in the shuffle if we publish more than three per day — they're all easily visible on our shiny new homepage now!)

David already announced Buy on the Rumor, so I simply want to echo his sentiments. THT Fantasy currently provides mostly strategy or in-depth analytical pieces, and I think this new blog will serve as a perfect complement to what we're currently doing. It will allow us to communicate with you quickly, in an easily accessible format, and provide our insights into current events that otherwise wouldn't make it into a full article.

To give a little background, the original concept behind Buy on the Rumor was a blog to discuss rumors floating around and what the fantasy ramifications would be if said rumor were to actually happen. "Hey, did you hear Corey Hart might get traded? If he does, that would likely give more playing time to Jody Gerut, Frank Catalanatto, or maybe Mat Gamel." We felt that this kind of preemptive information would be important for fantasy owners who 1) might need to make a dash to the waiver wire (especially in the case of closers) or 2) are simply trying to place a remainder-of-season value on certain players (such as part-time players for AL and NL-only leaguers).

Once we had this down, we decided to take it a step further and include all kinds of news items, not just rumors. Hopefully you guys enjoy this new feature as much as we hope you will. The THT Fantasy team made a few posts over the weekend in anticipation of the grand opening, so be sure to check in on those — it's all still pretty relevant. On days when we post a lot, also be sure to check the mini-calendar that appears on each Buy on the Rumor page so that you don't miss anything.

One thing David didn't mention is that, to go along with our new homepage, you can access it easily by going to thtfantasy.com. Should be easy to remember.

As for me, I know you haven't heard much from me lately, so you have my apologies. Not to fear, however; I should be getting back on a regular schedule now.

That's all for now. Hopefully you guys enjoy the new setup. Be on the lookout for even more new features and analysis in the coming weeks and months! If you ever have any questions, comments, or suggestions for things you'd like to see at THT Fantasy, always feel free to shoot me an e-mail.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:45am (0) Comments

Confessions of a fantasy baseball addict: What about bailing?

With the first two calendar months of the season in the books, the time to look towards next season is occurring whether one wants to or not. Even if you think your team needs just a couple more weeks to recover, the other four or five teams at the bottom of the pack may think otherwise and make decisions that force your hand. For standard leagues, this essentially means focusing on the upcoming fantasy football season. For keeper leagues, though, it means something entirely different. Well for at least the week or two it takes to restructure your roster for a run at the league championship in 2010. In other words, bailing.

Bailing is an interesting phenomenon in 2009. The rules from the Official Rotisserie Baseball Handbook spoke specifically about player contracts in subsequent years. Essentially, the game was intended to be of the keeper league variety and AL- or NL-only. Then came the internet with its ease of standings calculation and free mixed leagues from internet service providers looking to bring eyeballs to their websites to bury traditional rotisserie baseball.

Before long, the game of “rotisserie baseball” morphed in “fantasy baseball” and its most popular format was the mixed league re-draft version. After several years of this, most participants playing fantasy baseball don’t know any better. So bailing becomes just another phrase with no real meaning.

For the hardcore minority who know only the “pure” version of the game, bailing brings all sorts of mixed feelings. On one hand, you understand and accept it as a rational decision by those who see little chance of finishing in the money this season and look to improve those chances for the following season. On the other hand, you know it destroys the competitive balance of the current season by juicing the teams who receive the players from the bailing team while watching the bailing team drop in the counting categories and give points to those teams who happened to be trailing the bailing team before hand.

The question is how to balance the two competing forces. Like water going downhill, teams in keeper leagues will find a way to prepare for the next season when they are no longer competitive in the current one. Mitigating the competitive destruction bailing wrought, or attempting to do so, is the goal.
The unhip way to do it is to allow a free-for-all that puts no limits on who and what can be dealt from the bailer to the bailee. Typically, this leads to a team dealing Albert Pujols and Jose Reyes for Gerardo Parra and Buster Posey. This is a scary environment and doesn’t ameliorate the corrosive and divisive effects of the bail.

So the next to come is the in-season salary cap. Essentially, the goal is not to unlopside the bail trade, but keep any one team from acquiring both Pujols and Reyes. Instead, each goes to separate teams for a player whose future value (a combination of salary, ability and control) is greater than the current value of Pujols or Reyes. This retains the freedom each team has to make whatever deal they feel best serves their future interests but prevents a team from supercharging his roster with two or three superstars.

From this point, the subjective evaluations of the bailing team turn towards the subjective evaluations of the other teams. Whether it is a commissioner veto or a league wide one, the teams not involved in the trade get final say on whether the bail trade moves forward.

Or rules can be established prescribing a fixed amount of distance between teams in the standings determines who can and cannot trade or a fixed distance between players salaries/round drafted are set. Penalties can also be assessed towards the teams who decide to violate these rules such as costing a team a draft penalties such as hits in draft order or salary cap.

All these efforts are attempts to balance the ability of a losing team to construct a more successful team for the following season(s) versus the inherent unfairness of the bail trade. All are also efforts to balance the subjective player valuations of the two teams involved in the bail trade versus those of the other six, eight, 10 teams in the league whose seasons are not completely sunk or hoping to still make a run for the Yoo-hoo.

And that is how teams are compelled to think bail even if they do not want to do so.

Are there solutions to the bail crisis or are there just not-as-bad options?

Posted by Eric Hinz at 12:37am (10) Comments

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Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Fallout: DeRosa

Fallout: Perez

Fallout: Indians infield

Fallout: Indians bullpen

Fallout: Cardinals bullpen

Monday, June 29, 2009

The DeRosa Factors

Concluding thoughts

Conclusion

Friday, June 26, 2009

Thursday, June 25, 2009

Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Tuesday, June 23, 2009

The situation

Caveats

Concluding thoughts

Monday, June 22, 2009

Conclusion

Sunday, June 21, 2009

Saturday, June 20, 2009

Friday, June 19, 2009

Thursday, June 18, 2009

Wednesday, June 17, 2009

2009 - SP with largest differences between LIPS and FIP

Jason Hammel - Worse than FIP indicates

Aaron Cook - Worse than FIP indicates

Roy Halladay - Worse than FIP indicates

Mark Buehrle and Gavin Floyd - Worse than FIP indicates

Chris Young - Better than FIP indicates

Kevin Slowey - Better than FIP indicates

Tuesday, June 16, 2009

Monday, June 15, 2009

What is FIP?

Pitchers undervalued by FIP

Pitchers overvalued by FIP

Evaluating on your own

Concluding thoughts

Saturday, June 13, 2009

Friday, June 12, 2009

Thursday, June 11, 2009

Wednesday, June 10, 2009

Mechanical adjustments and regression to the mean

The specific case of Rollins -- BABIP

The specific case of Rollins -- Power

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, June 09, 2009

Jon Williams - Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Patrick Cain - Albany Times Union

Brett Greenfield - FantasyPhenoms

Mike Podhorzer - Fantasy Pros 911

Tommy Landry - RotoExperts

Monday, June 08, 2009

Comparison to his peers

Damage done by hits and walks

Concluding thoughts

Saturday, June 06, 2009

Friday, June 05, 2009

Thursday, June 04, 2009

Wednesday, June 03, 2009