THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:29pm

Jenrry Mejia and Other New Prospect Breakdowns

Looking for more prospect info? Find out where every prospect fits into the The Hardball Times ongoing Top 100 Prospects List.

New Player Breakdowns

31. Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland / MLB / 3/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #31 / Low: #46 / This Week: +15
2009 Thoughts:
Oakland is committed to allowing Cahill the chance to work through his struggles, and that trust has paid off. He has slowly turned into a strong back of the rotation asset in fantasy leagues.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
6/24/09 - After a very rough start to his season, Cahill has started to slowly figure out the major league game, and most of his stats are following suit. Everyone is still waiting for his strikeouts to surface, and they just might as soon as he is fully comfortable facing the some of the best hitters in the world. Cahill works best as an attacker. Currently, he is working on sharpening up his movement and attacking the inside part of the plate. Good things are on the horizon. Is he still a future ace? Time will tell.

34. Tyler Flowers / C / Chicago White Sox / Double-A / 1/24/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #34 / Low: #48 / This Week: +5
2009 Thoughts:
Flowers deserves the chance to show what he can do in the majors, but A.J. Pierzynski stands in his way. Unless a rumored Pierzynski deal goes down, expect Flowers to finish up his 2009 at Triple-A Charlotte.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - Flowers' bat has begun to heat up, and his plate discipline isn't far off from Matt Wieters and Carlos Santana's. He is coming on strong as the South Side's replacement for A.J. Pierzynski, if the team is looking to move on. Pierzynski is having himself a heck of a year, though. We'll see just how serious the White Sox are about a youth movement.

35. Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore / MLB / 10/12/83 / ETA: 2009 / High: #35 / Low: #75 / This Week: +3
2009 Thoughts:
Reimold has burst onto the radar screen of fantasy owners everywhere. He looks like a strong #3 outfielder for the rest of the year.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
6/24/09 - Reimold is the missing piece of an extraordinary Baltimore outfield along with Adam Jones and Nick Markakis. Those men, along with a little help from their friends, are on a quest to get Baltimore back to their winning ways. It's unclear as to how much upside Reimold really has, as he is 25 years old already, but his bat is legit. He can hit for both power and a respectable average. He will probably never be a .300, 30 home run hitter or a true No. 1 fantasy outfielder, but the production of a No. 2 fantasy outfielder is a good bet for his future. If he keeps hitting like this he will move even further up this list. Don't let his age get you down, as Reimold is a good prospect and has plenty of good major league seasons ahead of him.

38. Jenrry Mejia / SP / NY Mets / Double-A / 10/11/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #38 / Low: UR / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
This young man has snuck up on everybody, but don't expect the Mets to push him beyond Double-A. Lets see how the kid adjusts to his current league and the advanced hitters he's facing.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - I will admit it, I missed the boat on Mejia. Earlier this year I glanced at his High-A numbers, which were impressive on the surface but not all that spectacular peripherally, and then moved on to the next player that caught my eye. But, at the age of 19 I should have at least added him to the bubble. I didn't even consciously realize that he was promoted to Double-A Binghamton until a few starts in. That's when my eyes were opened. Right on cue, kindly Hardball Times reader Suchit Patel emailed me no more than an hour later looking for my thoughts on Mejia. Dear Suchit, go get Jenrry Mejia. I will admit another thing, I haven't even seen him pitch yet, but I'm hoping to catch his next start. I am being aggressive with this ranking, as I've essentially moved him ahead of Fernando Martinez as the team's No. 1 prospect, but the numbers and the age don't lie. He's riding on a lot of hype, and I usually don't just blindly buy into hype, but this time I will take the plunge.

39. Desmond Jennings / OF / Tampa Bay / Double-A / 10/30/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #37 / Low: #58 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
Tampa's advanced outfield depth chart is crowded, allowing for little wiggle room. If Jennings keeps opening eyes, though, a shot at Triple-A is a no-brainer.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
6/24/09 - All of the hype is starting to become real. The best two things about his current Double-A run are not the eye popping fantasy stats, but two fantastic ratios that scream future success; a 38/31 strikeout-to-walk ratio and an 87 percent stolen base success rate in 26 attempts. There is a lot to like. But will a Tampa Bay outfield opening present itself in the near future? That's something Jennings can't control.

Read the latest installment of The Hardball Times ongoing Top 100 Prospects List.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:03am

Roster Doctor - 6/25/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 20
Categories: Traditional 5x5 plus OBP and SLG for hitters, and K/BB ratio for pitchers
Scoring Type: Head-to-Head
Other Notes: Daily updates, Aug. 16 trade deadline, 5 keepers per year (3 years max), 6 teams make playoffs
Roster:

C - Jorge Posada
1B - Kendry Morales
2B - Kelly Johnson
3B - Chipper Jones
SS - Marco Scutaro
CI - Josh Fields
MI - Alberto Callaspo
OF - Carlos Beltran
OF - JD Drew
OF - Pat Burrell
OF - Matt Diaz
UTIL - Dexter Fowler
UTIL - Jeff Keppinger
BN - Coco Crisp
BN - Carlos Delgado

SP - Roy Oswalt
SP - Josh Beckett
SP - Zach Duke
SP - Dave Bush
RP - Justin Masterson
RP - Pedro Feliciano
RP - Alfredo Aceves
P - Matt Thorton
P - Jeremy Affeldt
P - Ramon Troncoso
P - Tim Hudson
DL - Brandon Webb

So right now your team is sitting in 18th place of a 20 team league. I feel this team has enough solid parts to compete and a couple of key moves could propel it into the top half of the league, although cracking the top six will be quite the challenge.

The first problem spot is at second base where Kelly Johnson is stinking it up. It is almost bad news that his groin injury is not serious, since then he could have been placed on the DL, giving you the flexibility to pick up someone new. If you do manage to free a roster spot, a good replacement is Kelly Johnson's probable real life replacement, Martin Prado, and he comes with the added bonus of being able to fill in for Chipper when he misses a few games here and there.

I know in the offseason I wrote an article saying Josh Fields is a decent late-round option at third base but now in June, it is apparent he has dropped from fantasy relevance. Once again the real life replacement Gordon Beckham is intriguing, but my feeling is that he is already owned. Chase Headley, Kyle Blanks, Ty Wigginton, Willy Aybar, and Ryan Garko are all players I'd rather see in that CI spot over Fields.

Callaspo certainly is not a sexy option at MI, but he is a solid one and you could do a lot worse there.

Beltran's fall is untimely and may be the dagger in your season looking back, but let's see how we can work around it as best we can. My favorite outfield pickup up is Seth Smith right now, who is outperforming the others stuck in that Rockies logjam in the outfield. I see the playing time start to fall more in his favor, both on the Rockies or on another team if he gets traded. A safer replacement with more stable playing time could be Gabe Gross or Daniel Murphy.

Burrell has simply been a steel anchor this season, dragging down all of the teams he is on, and I think in the next week or two it is time to make a decision on him. He has the potential to get hot and knock a few home runs and post a solid OBP, but is that worth waiting for? Are there better options in free agency? Unless he picks up the production over the next week I would bench him and cut Delgado or Crisp for the outfielders mentioned above. Another name to consider is Chris Dickerson if he continues to get regular playing time when the gets DH taken away.

The last note on your hitting: Keppinger can be dropped for most of the outfielders I have already mentioned as possible pickups.

Transitioning to your pitching, it appears decent, and obviously if Brandon Webb had not gone down it would look much better. Oswalt might be someone you could look to trade, if his name can cover his numbers and fetch you something valuable. I can see why you picked Bush since he would be extra-valuable in this league because of the K/BB category, but unfortunately he's walking plenty of guys this year, taking away aspect of his game that made him valuable.

For someone who punted saves, I like a lot of the guys in your bullpen—Thorton and Aceves namely—because I believe Thorton has a decent chance of becoming the ChiSox closer (Jenks trade) and Aceves is a great ratio helper, often throwing multiple innings in his appearances.

Overall, I think you might want to half throw in the towel here. I gave you some suggestions of how to help your hitting in little Band-Aid patches, but you will have to pull off a superbly good trade—Kazmir for Zambrano-esque—in order to jump into contention for that last playoff spot. When your best hitter and pitcher are lost to injury for significant periods of time, it is easier to start thinking about next year and hire a new trainer.

A strategy you should consider is trading away some of your remaining valuable pieces for a player you would want as a keeper for next year, helping you for then, hopefully with better luck next time.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:59am

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Thursday, June 25, 2009

Snell demoted

Jenrry Mejia and Other New Prospect Breakdowns

Roster Doctor - 6/25/09