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THT's Fantasy Archives
Tuesday, June 30, 2009
Finally, a Monday with some meat! Twelve games—plenty of opportunities for heroes or (in our case) goats.
Are you gazing this morning at a double-digit deficit in the standings for the week? March out the offenders!
Entering's a snap:
2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.
3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.
4. Add brief biographical material.
We'll sift through the entries & give the lowest score on Wednesday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.
Posted by John Burnson at 10:19am
I'll be appearing on the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable Radio Show again tonight at 10:30 PM EST. For those would like to listen, here's the link. Should be a good time.
Posted by Derek Carty at 5:00am
A few days ago, the Cardinals and Indians completed the first pre-deadline deal, sending Mark DeRosa to the Cards for Chris Perez and a player to be named later. This trade, while impacting the two players directly involved, probably had the biggest impact on the players not traded on the two respective teams.
I'll start with the fallout on DeRosa and Perez, however.
This trade certainly benefits DeRosa for the reasons Derek mentioned in his BoTR post yesterday. He will be facing, in general, easier pitchers and will have a monster in Pujols batting around him.
The Cardinals as a team do score less than the Indians, although I do not believe that will have more than a two or three run/RBI effect on his totals. That would affect someone more toward the bottom of the lineup, where the pitcher slot comes more into play. The move to Busch Stadium may also rob a home run or two from him, but I do not think the swap in stadium will have a tremendous impact.
The easier league and having Pujols in front or behind him outweigh the negatives and make this trade good for DeRosa owners, but overall the trade should not deviate his season-ending numbers far from what they would be had he stayed in Cleveland.
As I expressed in this BoTR post, I felt Perez could steal the job from Ryan Franklin, who was and still is getting extremely lucky. Well, now Perez leaves one volatile situation (or at least one that I thought could be) and heads to an even more volatile one.
Current Indians closer Kerry Wood is running thin on his leash and if he continues to lose Cleveland games, I could see them turning to Perez since they do not have any other good options.
For the long term, for those in dynasty leagues, this trade is great as it places Perez in one of the weaker bullpens in the majors and Wood is likely gone after 2010, if he even still has the job by then. You also have to take into account the chance Wood lands on the DL for stretches of time, giving Perez the opportunity to earn a few saves before he may officially take over the job.
Yous should not, however, think Perez is an automatic lock to earn a closer's job in his future. There is no doubt he has the makeup with a hard fastball and a plus slider, but he has struggled with his control in both the majors and minors throughout his professional career. We can only hope that the soon-to-be 24-year-old will be able to overcome his control issues as he matures as a pitcher.
Otherwise, he will never move past the raw bullpen arm label and never become closer material.
Fallout: Indians infield
With Mark DeRosa gone, the other members of the Indians infield figure to benefit, namely Jhonny Peralta, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jamey Carroll, and especially rookie Luis Valbuena. Peralta and Cabrera will now have starting jobs at third and short respectively, with Carroll and Valbuena splitting time at second. Carroll should play mostly against lefties and the left-handed hitting (but righty throwing) Valbuena will play versus righties.
Fallout: Indians bullpen
Current Indians closer Kerry Wood's job is safe for now, but his leash is even shorter now that the Indians have a bullpen arm they feel could be their closer for years to come. The two pitchers I thought could take over for Wood if Wood were to lose the job—Betancourt and Herges—are hurt by the trade as they now have another bullpen arm to compete with for that job. We will have to see who gets that eighth-inning setup role.
Fallout: Cardinals bullpen
If Ryan Franklin keeps getting saves as dependably as he has, then he has no reason to worry about losing his role. However, at 36 years old he is no spring chicken and should not be expected to pitch this well the second half of this year, let alone next year. The Cardinals younger bullpen arms, Jason Motte (and other potential relievers in their minor league system), figure to benefit from Perez's departure as the path to the Cards' closer role just became less obstructed.
Posted by Paul Singman at 3:22am
Over the weekend, the Cleveland Indians traded Mark DeRosa to the St. Louis Cardinals for reliever Chris Perez and a player to be named later. As Porky Pig might say, this transaction represented the first shot of duck hunting season.
From now until July 31—MLB’s trading deadline—we can expect a lot of player movements. Or at least, rumors of player movement.
For anyone in deep leagues and shallow player pools, these trades can be especially significant.
In the Mark DeRosa deal, for example, the value of DeRosa didn’t much change.
But anybody hunting for saves had to consider whether Chris Perez was being lined up for save opportunities later this season, especially with current Indians closer Kerry Wood struggling.
Those in really deep leagues, who still own Jason Motte, may have let out a little smile, and anybody who participates in a league where middle relievers hold value should immediately track the progress of Cardinals prospect Jess Todd.
Finally, Luis Valbuena may not elicit tremendous excitement among the normal viewing public, but the Indians 2B has got to be a hot commodity among fantasy owners who are desperate for a middle infielder who will likely play every day now.
Often the biggest changes in value happen on the periphery. With that in mind, we’ve got our eye on five players whose value may spike, depending on what happens to their teammates.
First up is Ty Wigginton. The Orioles batter could get traded himself, or it could be Aubrey Huff. Still, a player who has hit 22 HRs in three consecutive seasons and one who has an OPS that’s almost 70 points higher throughout his career in the second half deserves close monitoring as to see if he gets a position to play every day.
Next, there’s Seth Smith, who has perhaps unfairly been regulated to a platoon role in the Colorado Rockies outfield. He’s hitting .300 on the year, has an OBP of .427, more walks than strikeouts, and is contributing both power and speed, yet he’s hardly rosterable with Ryan Spilborghs and Carlos Gonzalez stealing Mile High oxygen. But Spilborghs is a good trade candidate and Gonzalez hasn’t been doing much, so keep an eye on any moves the Rockies make.
Third, we’re monitoring Matt Thornton. White Sox general manager Ken Williams is one of the most aggressive executives on the trading front, and while closer Bobby Jenks still has some time of cheap service left to give, the Sox may dangle one of their best trading assets for the right price. If they do move Jenks, Thornton becomes a great candidate to become closer, sporting 37 strikeouts and a 1.15 WHIP in 29.7 innings.
Our final two guys are a pair of prospects who could earn promotion if the chips fall in the right spot.
Matt LaPorta tasted some big league action earlier this season, but the playing time was spotty and he’s now back in Triple-A. The Indians trade of DeRosa starts to clear some room for him, and one trade usually precedes another. The Indians are probably not done trading, and perhaps they’ll look to unload Ryan Garko. Pretty soon, LaPorta probably earns an every-day job.
Finally, a big sleeper—Jarrod Parker in Arizona.
This hasn’t been the greatest year for pitching prospects to make noise in the Bigs. Ask David Price. But Parker keeps impressing in the minors and now stands neck-and-neck with Madison Bumgarner as the most anticipated call-up among pitching prospects. Reportedly, the Diamondbacks have been shopping pitchers like Doug Davis and Jon Garland, which would clear room in their rotation. The Diamondbacks have not been shy about aggressively moving up prospects like Justin Upton and Max Scherzer before, so it wouldn’t be a shocker to see Parker in the majors soon.
For those who want the fantasy ramifications of breaking trades in July, check out the “Buy on the Rumor” column on the Hardball Times home page.
Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:16am
Hitters (H=+1, 2B=+2, 3B=+3, HR=+4, RBI=+1, SB=+2, CS=-1, K=-0.5, BB=+1)
Pitchers (IP=+3. H=-1, BB=-1, ER=-2, K=+1, W=+7, L=-5, S=+5, BS=-3)
C: Matt Wieters
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brian Roberts
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Pablo Sandoval
OF: Grady Sizemore
OF: Nate McLouth
OF: Hunter Pence
Util: Luke Scott
DL: Edwin Encarnacion
DL: Carlos Beltran
P: CC Sabathia
P: Josh Beckett
P: Matt Cain
P: Tommy Hanson
P: Javier Vazquez
P: Ricky Nolasco
P: Kevin Slowey
P: Jonathan Papelbon
P: Mariano Rivera
DL: Jake Peavy
Rich wants to know whether to replace Sandoval with Encarnacion upon the Reds third baseman's return from the DL. Rich also is questioning whether JJ Hardy or Ian Stewart would be better options at utility.
Regarding 3B—if this was a Roto league, I'd tell you the team looks like it's a little short on power. In such a case, one might construct the argument that although Sandoval should be more valuable than Encarnacion overall, it's certainly conceivable that the latter could hit more home runs in the second half.
But this is a points league, and better yet, the league penalizes strikeouts and loves a guy with good contact ability. Namely a guy like Sandoval, who might be more valuable in this format than you realize. The format doesn't even care that as a member of the Giants, he doesn't score too much.
As for Scott in Baltimore, he's a guy who might be slightly less valuable in this format. The league is only 10 teams, making Scott a marginal option because he'll get occasional rest days against tough left-handed pitchers. Plus, Scott strikes out at a decent clip and his average is probably due for a slight correction downward. That said, he's probably still a better utility option at the moment than Hardy or Stewart and probably even Encarnacion.
Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:09am
Monday, June 29, 2009
Here is the link to this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable, hosted by Fantasy Phenoms. The question posed:
Three pitchers who have exceeded expectations so far are Jon Lester, Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. Owners of these pitchers have been relying on them as weekly starters who play an intricate role for their fantasy teams. All three are on pace to strike out over 240 batters. If you had to choose one of these pitchers to continue this trend, who would it be? Why?
I'm really surprised that a few of the guys picked Greinke. He'd need to pitch a lot of innings to get to 240 Ks.
Posted by Derek Carty at 11:01pm
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