THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:39pm

Smaller trade deadline moves

Moves with some fantasy relevance

Jerry Hairston to Yankees
Should backup several positions for the Yankees. Loses some value due to lost PT, but the rates shouldn't be affected much. In Cincy, Alex Gonzalez is more secure at SS and the crowded OF gets a little less crowded, though Wladimir Balentein could go right into the Jerry-Hairston-Jr.-as-an-outfielder role, so maybe it's not less crowded.

Moves with minimal fantasy relevance

Joe Beimel to Rockies
No more save chances for Beimel; keep an eye on Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard in Washington. Mike MacDougal is imploding... soon.

Claudio Vargas to Brewers
Good news for my LABR NL team (Vargas was the throw-in when I acquired Max Scherzer), but of minimal importance to most others. Vargas will get some starts in Milwaukee and could be solid. Worth a pickup in NL-only.

John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to Cubs; Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio, and Josh Harrison to Pirates
Grabow is no longer next in line for saves. Fantasy value, done. Gorzelanny is still not good and doesn't deserve a chance in your fantasy rotation, even if the Cubs give him one in theirs. Hart has posted good minor league numbers, but it's never really translated to the majors. Should slide into Pitt's rotation, but he looks like a high variance guy. Worth a shot in deep NL-only leagues, though he's probably already owned in the leagues he's worth owning in.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:25pm

LaRoche, Kotchman swapped

The trade: Red Sox' 1B Adam LaRoche for Braves' 1B Casey Kotchman

Like the Reds-Jays trade, we see a simple swap of corner infielders. Unlike that trade, the values of these two guys change drastically. LaRoche becomes the Braves' new starting 1B, and if he was dropped in any NL-only leagues (either by choice or league rules), he makes a great pickup. Not the coziest park, but it's neutral-ish and much better than playing part-time.

Kotchman, on the other hand, sees his value plummet. He won't see many starts in Boston with Kevin Youkilis and Victor Martinez getting most of the 1B ABs. A Mike Lowell injury is one of the few things that can save Kotchman's fantasy season, forcing Youkilis to third and opening up a spot for him.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:19pm

Rolen, Encarnacion swapped

The trade: Blue Jays' 3B Scott Rolen for Reds' 3B Edwin Encarnacion, RP Josh Roenicke, and P Zach Stewart.

The Jays and Reds swap third basemen here, to the delight of 'only'-league owners. Neither's value changes much. Toronto has the more favorable park (by a little bit — Great American is still a good HR park), but the tougher AL league will offset much of the difference. The batting order impact is still yet to be seen.

Roenicke is a reliever, and though he has good skills, has limited fantasy relevance. Stewart looked decent at Double-A but had big control problems when promoted to Triple-A (and moved to the bullpen) earlier in the season. We shouldn't see him in the majors in 2009.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:11pm

Nick Johnson to Fish

The trade: Nationals' 1B Nick Johnson for Marlins' prospect Aaron Thompson

The Nats needed to move Johnson, but Thompson isn't a guy I'd be thrilled with. He's not fantasy relevant, in any case. Johnson's value rises a bit moving to the better offense as he should collect some more RBI and runs. He'll move Jorge Cantu back to third base and finally push Emilio Bonifacio to the bench. He'll play some games all over the infield and in left field, so his value isn't trashed, but he won't be particularly useful except for a handful of steals. If you were still hanging onto him at this point, guys, sorry, but you probably deserve this.

This also eliminates much of 1B Gaby Sanchez's speculative value for this year. It looked like he might find regular PT at 1B in the near future, but that won't happen unless Johnson gets injured (crazier things have happened

) and the team decides to play Sanchez over Bonifacio.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:04pm

Jake Peavy to White Sox… for real this time

The trade: Padres' SP Jake Peavy for White Sox prospects SP Aaron Poreda, SP Clayton Richard, RP Adam Russell, and SP Dexter Carter

The most unexpected trade of the day (and yes, Peavy approved it). Peavy may not even pitch again in 2009, but he's worth a small bid in AL-only leagues in case. From Chris Neault this past Sunday: "Best case scenario - if he does return at all - is a return around September 1st, with a few starts, tops."

For the Padres, they get a pretty decent haul. Clayton Richard will almost certainly slide right into San Diego's rotation, ending the Edward Mujica-as-a-starter experiment before it began. Richard is an underrated pitcher to begin with and should greatly benefit from the move. Not only is he moving from the AL to the NL, he's moving from the most extreme hitter's park in the majors to one of the most extreme pitcher's parks (in terms of HRs) — a 40.3% swing! He'll also see a positive 9.2% swing in Ks, a slight bump in his GB%, and only a small increase in BBs.

NL-only leaguers who miss out on Cliff Lee, make sure you push Richard to the top of your backup list. An ERA around 4.00 is quite possible, perhaps even likely.

Poreda is a guy scouts like more than the numbers, never posting a good K and BB rate together since Rookie league ball. Even if the Padres recall him over the next couple months (not entirely likely), expectations should be low. Only consider stashing in very deep NL-only leagues, though the move definitely improves his keeper league value moving to the NL and PETCO.

Russell never put up great numbers before either, but he has turned it on at Triple-A this year. He might not see any action this year, but if he does, keep a close eye on him in NL-only.

Carter's still in A-ball and a ways away.

This does make things a bit murky for when Cha Baek returns (which should be coming within a week or two), but he's a great, undervalued pitcher who should be stashed in deep mixed and NL-only leagues regardless. Hopefully the Padres will make room for him.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:42pm

Jarrod Washburn to Tigers

The trade: Mariners' SP Jarrod Washburn for Tigers' P Luke French and P Mauricio Robles

Washburn's value takes a clear hit here. As a flyball pitcher, he was taking full-advantage of the Mariners' excellent defensive outfield. In addition, Comerica suppresses Ks by nearly 14% over Safeco (although it also suppresses walks by 6.5%), a very big figure. Comerica reduces HRs, but his HR/FB is due for a regression anyway, and we should expect his ERA to be over 4.50 the rest of the way. Hopefully you sold Washburn while you had the chance.

No one affected in Detroit with Washburn sliding into French's spot in the rotation. French will probably do the same in Seattle, though his job is surely less secure. His numbers were never particularly promising in the minors and he doesn't have the kind of stuff scouts rave about, but he did post solid numbers at Triple-A this year. His major league numbers were barely passable, especially considering that he put up an extreme flyball rate. It was more normal in the minors, but we should still only consider him in the deepest of AL-only leagues.

Robles isn't fantasy relevant for 2009.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:31pm

O-Cab to Twins

The trade: A's SS Orlando Cabrera for Twins' SS Tyler Ladendorf.

Cabrera's K% should increase, but so should his BABIP, so his batting average probably won't change too much. The power should also stay the same, so the lineup around him is really the only difference. Cabrera had been batting second for the A's, and the Twins could do the same with him (as they did with 2B Alexi Casilla and Brendan Harris to start the season) and push Joe Mauer to #3 and Justin Morneau to #4. In this case, his run scoring should see a solid increase and he could net a few more RBIs as well.

Cabrera will likely take lots of time away from Nick Punto and Harris unless the team decides it wants to demote Casilla again and let Punto play second.

In Oakland, the big beneficiary is Cliff Pennington. He's a very speed SS prospect who will get a chance to start everyday. He has almost no power, won't post a great batting average, and will likely bat towards the bottom of the order, so he's strictly an AL-only play. If you need speed, though, there may not be a better guy coming. The #2 hole will now be open, but it's not clear who will occupy it yet. Whoever does will get a nice boost in value.

Ladendorf is still far away from the majors.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:07pm

Victor Martinez to Red Sox

Lots going on today, as you've surely noticed, and not all of the details are out yet. I'll try to spin everything with what we've got and makes changes later on as more details become available.

Primary pieces

Today saw several big trades, one of which being Indians C Victor Martinez for Red Sox P Justin Masterson and prospects P Nick Hagadone and P Bryan Price. Pretty good trade for both sides. The Red Sox got their man without giving up Clay Buchholz, and the Tribe got the MLB-ready arm they were looking for and a couple of intriguing prospects.

Masterson gets the biggest boost in value as he should slide right into the Cleveland rotation and could do pretty well for himself. I'd expect an ERA in the low 4.00s and a WHIP in the 1.35 area. He's got pretty good skills to begin with and Jacobs Field boosts Ks by 9.1% and GBs by 2.9% over Fenway. It also boosts walks by 6.8%, but the net impact is well in positive territory. He can be considered in deep 12-team mixed leagues and should be owned in all AL-only and deep mixed leagues.

Victor Martinez's value won't change much. He'll split time at catcher with Jason Varitek and play some games at first and DH, like he did in Cleveland. His power numbers may drop a little, especially from the left side, but he will be hitting in a very potent lineup for RBI and runs and Fenway will be much better for his batting average.

The two prospects in the deal are still at least a couple years away from the majors.

Collateral damage

Indirectly affected are Varitek and Tribe C Kelly Shoppach. Varitek's value drops considerably, while Shoppach sees his value rise since he won't have to split time anymore (at least until the team decides to recall top prospect C Carlos Santana, though that may not come until 2010). Feel free to pick him up in medium-sized mixed leagues if you need power and can take the batting average hit.

The addition of Masterson will push someone out of the Cleveland rotation. My guess would be David Huff, though Aaron Laffey or Jeremy Sowers could be the choice. Fausto Carmona deserves it, but just coming back from the DL, they'll give him one more shot. This also makes it somewhat unlikely that recently-acquired Carlos Carrasco will get to face major league hitters this season.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:37pm

Waiver Wire: NL

Bud Norris | Houston | SP
YTD: 12.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Baseball America called Norris the Astros' No. 2 prospect, and he's earned that label in 2009, putting up some nice ratios (8.4 K/9, 2.11 K/BB, 2.62 ERA) for Triple-A Round Rock. He needs to control his walks (4.0 BB/9), but otherwise he's been one of Houston's best minor-league arms this year. When Oswalt strained his back this week, the Astros called up Norris to start in his place. It now looks like Oswalt might not miss a start, but Houston released Russ Ortiz Thursday, so Norris could slide into that rotation spot instead.

Whatever happens, Norris should be up to stay and get regular work, but his value is obviously higher as a starter. Keeper leagues should be all over Norris, while NL-only teams deeper than 10 teams could make him a speculative pickup. With 120 innings in the minors already, he won't see heavy usage down the stretch, but should offer strikeouts and a good shot at some wins.

Julio Lugo | St. Louis | SS
YTD: .306/.365/.440
True Talent: .264/.331/.369
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .266 BA, 0.8 SB
Forgotten among the Holliday trade, Lugo may ultimately be just as important to the Cards, at least defensively. He gives them a solid glove up the middle, but what fantasy owners are interested in are his offensive skills, which aren't significant. He's been on fire since joining St. Louis, hitting .400/.423/.760 in his first five games, though that's clearly not going to continue. His days of double-digit steals and cracking a .400 SLG are past, so he's going to slip slowly into the west, but he's got a bit of value in a strong Cardinals lineup. Ride him in the short term if you dare, but he's best suited for NL leagues with 14 teams and deeper.

Ryan Garko | San Francisco | 1B
YTD: .280/.358/.455
True Talent: .274/.348/.441
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .278 BA, 0.0 SB
I've followed the Giants' spinning Wheel of 1B Fortune in this column, and the trade for Garko indicates he's currently The Man at first. You might think he'd be on the short end of a platoon with lefty Ishikawa, but San Francisco didn't trade prospect Scott Barnes for a player who's going to hit a third of the time. Expect Garko to see action against all left-handed pitchers and a good chunk of right-handed pitchers, boosting his value considerably. Paul Singman sees him as a good add for 12-team mixed or deeper league, but I'm not quite that optimistic. True Talent pegs him as the 17th-best NL 1B in OPS; that and a shared playing time situation makes him rosterable for 12-team NL leagues and mixed leagues deeper than 15 teams.

Jon Garland | Arizona | SP
YTD: 4.0 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 4.42 ERA
True Talent: 4.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.62 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 3 K, 4.54 ERA
Garland's overall numbers this year haven't been stellar, but he's on a nice run, with quality starts in 7 of his last 8 starts, and a 2.92 ERA. The problem is, the anemic Arizona offense hasn't supported him enough, and he's only won twice in that stretch. True Talent shows you he's not going to offer much in the way of strikeouts, and his ERA could rise a tad. He's one of the Diamondbacks starters who's on the trading block, but any deal is likely to come after the deadline, but playing for a better team could be just the thing to boost his value. Unless and until that happens, he's best suited for NL-only leagues deeper than 10 teams, or the deepest of mixed leagues; in either league, he might help your ERA, but not much else.

Ronny Cedeno | Pittsburgh | SS
YTD: .167/.213/.290
True Talent: .253/.302/.378
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.4 SB
Looking at Pittsburgh's various acquisitions, you'd think Cedeno would be penciled in at starting shortstop, but Pittsburgh fans—and fantasy owners—hope that's not the case. Not only is it a mistake to start a relative veteran on a team in the middle of a youth movement, Cedeno's put up an unimpressive .238/.276/.339 line in his five MLB seasons. He's decent enough with the glove, but has no business wielding a bat for either the Pirates or your fantasy team. There's no reason to expect him to improve suddenly in Pittsburgh's lineup, one of the few offenses in MLB that might be weaker than Seattle's. The slight rebound that would bring him up to True Talent levels is still only good enough to make him a worthy shortstop in 18-team NL-only leagues; he's not the pickup you want in the Pittsburgh infield.

Delwyn Young | Pittsburgh | 2B/OF
YTD: .316/.381/.427
True Talent: .276/.337/.435
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .277 BA, 0.1 SB
The Pirates' roster dump opened up opportunities for both middle infielders and outfielders, and Delwyn Young would fit either spot. He could get a long look at second base, depending on how soon Pittsburgh gives up on Cedeno and shifts Vazquez over to short. With six games at second under his belt already, Young qualifies at that spot in some leagues, which is what counts for fantasy owners, whether he ends up playing there full-time or not. What's key is his overall playing time, and he should be getting a good chunk of time somewhere on the field, though his power potential makes him best for in one of your MI slots. He's performing very close to True Talent levels, a good sign that he should retain his value as a MI in 10-team NL leagues or 14-team mixed leagues.

Ramon Vazquez | Pittsburgh | SS
YTD: .237/.346/.275
True Talent: .254/.337/.371
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .256 BA, 0.0 SB
Ignore the OPS that Vazquez put up in Texas last year, which was almost entirely due to his red-hot first half. Instead, see him for what he is: a guy who's going to produce adequate numbers at short, while qualifying at 2B and possibly 3B, too. The Pirates are going to play him in one of those spots most of the time; that Next Week Forecast was created before the trade removed the competition in front of him. He's got value mostly as an NL-only SS, where he's a good play in 12-team or deeper leagues. Much deeper mixed-league teams can take him if they must—his OPS is only 22nd best among all MLB shortstops.

Mike Adams | San Diego | RP
YTD: 10.0 K/9, 6.7 K/BB, 1.00 ERA
True Talent: 8.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 3.25 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.15 ERA
The big deal that everyone's waiting for is a swap for Heath Bell, which would open the Padres' closing job up, probably for Adams. Those eye-popping ratios Adams has put up so far have been over just 18 innings, so they're clearly going to drop. But he's still going to maintain some nice secondary stats, which is why he'd slide nicely into that endgame role. It's a gamble as to whether Bell gets traded, but Adams is still going to help your ratios either way. Since he's coming back from labrum surgery, the Padres have worked him carefully, gradually increasing his workload with no ill effects. If anything, he's been getting better, with 12 strikeouts in his last 6.1 innings. A trade makes him an instant pickup in all leagues, but any league that counts holds should also consider him for their roster. Those strong secondary ratios and an ERA projected to be in the top 10 among NL relievers means even a speculative pickup won't burn you.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Carlos Carrasco | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 8.8 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 5.18 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Pitchers who allow bad “luck” numbers (.330 BABIP and 13% HR/FB% for Carrasco '09) in the minors often do so because they are short on talent, unlike their MLB counterparts. But, as BA's Prospect Handbook puts it, “scouts rave about [his] pure stuff.” Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty when projecting pitchers, but there is a lot of reason to be optimistic here, as he's just 22 at Triple-A, has been durable, is striking out almost nine per nine innings, and has improved his always-sharp control to an excellent 3.0 BB/9 rate. If the potent Indians offense isn't dismantled, he could be very good in AL leagues as soon as this season.

Justin Duchscherer | Oakland | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 2.8 K/BB, 2.54 ERA (2008 stats)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Nothing before 2008 prepared us for Duchscherer's amazing 141.2 inning season, which was driven by a .235 BABIP. He was a very-high quality setup man for years, so it was known that he could get batters out, and perhaps the injury is the price he paid for stretching it out. He's a flyball pitcher, and so his BABIP should remain lower than .300, but expectations need to be level-set at an ERA level over 3.00. The park and defense will help him post excellent ratios, as they are helping all the kids in the A's rotation. But as with the A's other pitchers, don't expect run support or long outings. In fact, there are strong rumors circulating that he'll be back in the bullpen when he returns this season.

Tommy Everidge | Oakland | 1B
YTD: .338/.402/.552 (AA-AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Who? Silently snuck into the Oakland lineup when Daric Barton went on the DL, Everidge led the Texas League in RBIs (115) in 2008, but was ancient for a Double-A prospect (25), and struck out too much for that level. Oakland was so unimpressed that he started 2009 in Double-A again. Cutting down his swing, he cut his strikeouts dramatically and earned a promotion to Triple-A, where he hit a crazy .382/.432/.636 before getting the call. Obviously, anyone who sees Triple-A for the first time at age 26 is more suspect than prospect, but our estimate is that Everidge gets two to three weeks to catch lightning in a bottle and do his best Garrett Jones impersonation before the revolving door pushes him out of the picture, perhaps forever.

Aaron Laffey | Cleveland | SP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 4.40 ERA
True Talent: 4.9 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.51 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 W, 6 K, 4.83
Just 24, Aaron Laffey has quietly stuck around for 200.1 innings in three seasons. How his 13-12 4.36/1.423 career stats should be interpreted is open to debate. His FIP is remarkably similar to his ERA (4.32). But his xFIP has been around 5.0 since the start of 2008, due to very “lucky” HR/FB ratios. He's not a groundball pitcher, but suffocates the running game (runners are 4-of-5 on SB attempts, career). The Cleveland defense, with Asdrubal at shortstop and Crowe in left field should help him post or better the solid True Talent numbers shown. That makes him a good AL-only play and an occasional mixed-league starter—at least against the likes of Seattle.

Lou Marson | Cleveland | C
YTD: .235/.350/.294
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
This author's MLP system shows Marson being a .232/.344/.350 hitter in his prime. He reportedly has a weak throwing arm, but calls a good game and is agile. With mega-prospect Carlos Santana getting his licks at Double-A this year (.397 OBP/.536 SLG, 31% CS), it's hard to envision a scenario where Marson has much of a starting role in Cleveland.

Michael Saunders | Seattle | OF
YTD: .211/.211/.211
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Despite raves about his prospect status, Saunders didn't post particularly outstanding stats until 2009. While recent history has shown some disappointing Tacoma-to-Seattle transitions, for a 22-year-old to post a .310/.378/.544 in that not-so-great hitting environment is very impressive. In a keeper league, he's a fine power prospect despite his home park. The question for redraft leagues is always what a guy will do NOW. There's really no reason to expect him to move seemlessly into the majors, so expect mediocre 2009 stats, improving gradually.

Brett Wallace | Oakland | 1B
YTD: .235/.350/.294
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Not quite blowing away the MLP system, Wallace's typical prime years performance is still good enough to rate starting at first base. Billy Beane has apparently realized that yes, indeed, pitching and defense win games. So, don't expect the A's to stretch Wallace by playing him at third base long term. The issue here is that the A's have a crowd at first base: the epiphany that is Tommy Everidge, the previous first baseman acquired from St. Louis (Daric Barton), Sean Doolittle and Travis Buck. We think he'll rise above this crowd, but without some curve-busting growth, don't expect a premier hitter.

Jack Wilson | Seattle | SS
YTD: .267/.304/.387
True Talent: .272/.318/.382
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .273 BA, 0.2 SB
He doesn't hit for much batting average. He doesn't steal. The new ballpark will again limit his power. But still, the atmosphere in Seattle is upbeat and the things Wilson does well (defense) are highly regarded. Wilson has had only one completely heathy season (2004), and hit a respectable .308/.335/.459. It would be folly to assume another .333 BABIP season from him, as his career mark is just .294. But good health and a positive environment should allow him to meet those weekly forecast numbers (based on an optimisic 95 percent playing time expectation).

Orioles Bullpen:

Jim Johnson | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.17 ERA
True Talent: 5.8 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.03 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 1.3 Saves, 3.92 ERA
Often not a great attribute for a sinkerballer (55 percent groundball rate career), Jim Johnson has added significantly to his fastball velocity over the past two years, and is bringing the heat at over 94 mph, on average, in 2009. That explains the 1.0 increase K/9 he's added over his 5.5 career rate. He's improved his walk rate (under 3.0 now), too. The combination has pushed his K/BB ratio over the 2.0 mark, a good benchmark for closer-worthiness. Expect him to be announced as the primary closer, or at least to become the de facto head of a committee.

Chris Ray | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 9.7 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 9.28 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.96 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 4.70 ERA
Chris Ray throws hard, strikes out hitters (8.5 K/9 career), doesn't walk a ton of guys (4.0 BB/9 career), but gives up lots of fly balls, and a disproportionate percentage of HR's on them. His dominance in Triple-A after being demoted shows that he's probably fully healthy, though. And, as a feast-or-famine guy in a pen without an alpha dog, he has the possibility to go from a 9.00 ERA to holding the closer's bone with surprising quickness, maybe as soon as in August. Don't pay a lot for the possibility, though—as closers go, he's still a mutt.

Danys Baez (reprise) | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.41 ERA
True Talent: 5.4 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 4.49 ERA
Since we last visited Baez, his BABIP has gone up (as predicted) from .192 to .237. Some of that's natural and some due to glove wiz Cesar Izturis missing time, as Baez is still generating grounders 60 percent of the time. There's a lot of fan discontent with Baez, but opposing hitters are still hitting an anemic .228/.296/.353 against him this year. Something has to give, because if he keeps holding hitters to that line, the ERA will come down significantly. But don't expect his 41-save season in '05 to open doors for many saves, he's still on the outside looking in.

Cla Meredith | Baltimore | RP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.89 ERA
True Talent: 6.0 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.55 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 3.92 ERA
Cla Meredith is not only the most extreme groundballer on this staff (and annually in competition for most extreme in MLB), but also the favorite of “True Talent” among the O's relievers. With his delivery, he's been much more effective against right-handed batters, though the +10 IBB vsL magnify the actual difference, so it's not as bad as the .378 to .293 OBP difference suggests. As with other extreme groundball pitchers, Meredith will likely be used before the ninth inning in GDP situations as often as Trembley can arrange it. Expect an occasional save here and there.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Sherrill to Dodgers

RP George Sherrill has been traded to the LA Dodgers. If Jim Johnson is still available, scoop him up quickly. He should be expected to close in Baltimore now. Sherrill loses most of his mixed league value.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:07pm

Josh Anderson to Royals

OF Josh Anderson seems to have been traded to the Royals for cash considerations (h/t Rotoworld). With Willie Bloomquist the primary centerfield for KC and RF Mark Teahen rumored to be traded, Anderson may have just seen his value spike. He won't do a whole lot more than steal bases and post an average (or slightly below average) BA, but I'm sure some AL-only teams could stand to add 15 or so steals. If he was dropped recently, he's worth considering. OF Jose Guillen is on the DL, but it's unclear how long he'll be out for.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:48am

More closer rumblings, something close?

The Marlins appear to be closing in on Heath Bell, likely for a top pitching prospect or two. If you didn't grab Mike Adams this morning, go get him now. If you have the room, grabbing Luke Gregerson or Greg Burke couldn't hurt (probably in that order).

And if you own Matt Lindstrom or Leo Nunez, you might want to see if you can trade either one for any closer you can get your hands on... like now.

It also looks like the Yankees might be working on a trade for a Blue Jays reliever like Scott Downs or Jason Frasor. There are rumors that Colorado could be in on Downs as well. The Jays have said in the past that Downs probably wouldn't be traded, but with his struggles recently and the dreaded vote of confidence he was given, they might be more willing. Frasor should be stashed, and Downs could be shopped. He'd lose most of his mixed league value if traded to the Yanks.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:26am

So much for Mujica being next in line…

Analysts everywhere have been treating the Padres bullpen situation as pretty clear-cut; if Heath Bell is traded, Edward Mujica would be next in line to close. As Eriq Gardner mentioned on Tuesday, though, this situation bears closer scrutiny. Last night, however, the team announced that Mujica would be moving to the rotation. So much for all that talk. It really didn't make much sense anyway, for several reasons:

1) The Pads have several quality relievers, including Mujica, Mike Adams, Luke Gregerson, and Greg Burke.
2) Gregerson leads the gmLI game at 1.35 while the other three all come in around 1.10.
3) Mujica's surface numbers and peripherals are worse than Adams's and Gregerson's.
4) Mujica has been used most recently in earlier innings than the other three.
5) Recently, Adams has pitched the eighth on days when Heath Bell pitches (though Burke has pitched later innings as well)

Now that he's officially out of the picture and the Padres may be too tempted to hold onto closer Heath Bell, it's looking more and more like stashing Mike Adams for the next 30 hours or so is a smart move. Not only does he appear to be next in line, but he has terrific skills and would make an excellent closer.

As far as Mujica goes, he only posted a league average-ish strikeout rate in the bullpen and is an extreme flyball pitcher, so he won't be dominant in the rotation. In an NL-only league, though, he does deserve to be owned. It's kind of a shame since he'll be taking the place of Josh Geer, who has shown real improvement this year and has simply been a victim of bad luck.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:30am

Dump trades and free markets

As an American, I take free markets as seriously as apple pie and baseball. Though some treat free markets dogmatically and think they're always better than the alternatives, most of us prefer to think of markets (free or not) as a means to some ends. What really matters to us is whether we get the health care, the cars, the television shows that we want (loosely speaking). Often times we think that a free market is the best way (or at least just as good as any other way) to ensure that people get what they want. Just as often, we recognize that at least some regulation makes society better—think of anti-trust protections against monopolies.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, there are many commentators and experts that despise the trade veto. They say (paraphrasing), "If two consenting adults think that a trade makes each of them better off, who are we to impose our judgment? Variety in tastes and in player forecasts makes fantasy baseball fun and interesting. Vive la free market." By and large, they are correct. But of course, nobody argues for a completely free market. Everyone, for instance, thinks that a trade should be blocked if two teams collude to enable one team to win.

In other words, we all believe that some regulation in fantasy baseball is good, the question is really just how much. Whereas most believe a trade should be blocked only in the case of collusion or cheating, I believe that there are other (albeit rare) trades that can be rightfully blocked. Dump trades, where a team that is not going to win this year trades its high value players for good keepers, are prime candidates for the veto.

Let's first dispel a myth: a trade between two players is not like consensual activity in the bedroom in the privacy of one's own house. A trade always affects the competitive balance of the entire league (even if only slightly). If a trade totally upsets the balance of the league, a veto may be warranted. Sometimes free markets hurt competition (an economist would say there are externalities in trading market).

Now let's go through some trade scenarios where no one is cheating but a veto could be appropriate.

An owner (let's call him Ralph Wiggum) is new to the league. The first week after the draft, Ralph decides that he doesn't have his favorite player on his team. He trades Albert Pujols and Ryan Howard to Bart's team in order to get Carlos Beltran. Why a veto is warranted: This trade is clearly one-sided and it is seems like Ralph isn't playing to win. It would make the league much less competitive if the trade were to go through.

A team decides to play for next year. Your league only allows one player with rookie eligibility to be kept. The team trades all of his best players to one of the leading teams in exchange for Chris Tillman, the player that this team thinks is the best rookie.

Why a veto is warranted: In this case, since the team is out of it, the owner is willing to pay any price to get the best keeper. If that owner wants Tillman, there is no offer from any other team (besides the one that owns Tillman) that could compete. Why not give up Pujols and Hanley Ramirez to get Tillman? But this dump trade makes the league much less competitive this year. Obviously, the problem here is the keeper rule (more on that in another article), but rather than try and change a faulty keeper rule mid-season, it may just be better to block these kinds of trades.

OK. So all trades change the competitive balance and some extreme ones clearly distort it so much that a veto is called for. But how much is too much? This is a judgment call. Like many others, I would err on the liberal side and be inclined to allow the trade unless it is grotesque. Nevertheless, these kinds of trades are proposed in leagues and they can ruin a beautiful season.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 4:07am

Roster Doctor

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

The owner of today's team is Jeff Zimmerman (also goes by TusconRoyal) a respected writer at Beyond the Boxscore and Driveline Mechanics so I'll be more than happy to take a look at his team and see what I can make of it. The settings:

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 14
Categories: Runs, RBI, OBP, SLG%, Net SB // Wins, Saves, Strikeouts, ERA, WHIP
Scoring: Rotisserie
Other notes: Daily updates, Non-keeper, no bench (BN) spots
Roster:

C - A.J. Pierzynski
C - Yadier Molina
1B - Justin Morneau
2B - Placido Polanco
3B - Russell Branyan
SS - Rafael Furcal
CI - Maicer Izturis
MI - Edgar Renteria
LF - Matt Holliday
CF - Curtis Granderson
RF - Denard Span
OF - Scott Podsednik
OF - Grady Sizemore
Util - Adam Kennedy

SP - Joba Chamberlain
SP - Carlos Villanueva
SP - Dan Meyer
SP - Alfredo Aceves
SP - Aaron Poreda
RP - Francisco Cordero
RP - Dan Wheeler
RP - David Aardsma
RP - Jose Valverde
P - Leo Nunez
P - Mark DiFelice
DL - Hong-Chih Kuo

Jeff sent over the full standings of his league so I know he is last in OBP, Wins, and Strikeouts, and tied for second-to-last in SLG%. He is in 10th place with 66.5 points (that number may have changed in the days since his submission) and the leader currently has 106.5 points. He also recently made a trade he termed "unfair yet necessary" that was Brian Fuentes for Span with him receiving Span—one I agree was a good deal given his team's situation.

Let me start off by saying this: You have literally zero percent chance of winning this league. You can, however, give a good show for the final two months and greatly improve your position in the standings. And your hitting, despite the Span trade, needs to be further improved.

My suggestion is to trade starter Joba Chamberlain for as big a hitter as he will command. Since he is riding the coattails of two great back-to-back starts his value should be peaking, making this a great time to trade him. Having seen him live for one of those two starts and having watching part of the other on television, I know that a lot of his outs were on hot-shot ground balls and line drives that luckily were hit directly at fielders. That luck, as you know, will not continue.

Joba is still a good pitcher, but is not the type you need when pitching at his more probable 4.20 ERA self. You should be looking to get guys who can go late in games, increasing their chance of getting the win and racking up strikeouts. Considering your league is without a maximum innings pitched limit, I would stockpile some more starters and even consider streaming fringe starters when they are facing poor offenses.

Ian Snell, Luke Hochevar, Chris Tillman, and Jason Hammel all make good speculative adds if unowned, and I would be willing to drop some of your weaker pitchers like Villanueva, Poreda (now in the minors) and Dan Wheeler to add these guys. Although it may hurt your pristine ERA and WHIP to an extent, the reward of climbing the wins and strikeout categories will be greater if you make smart moves.

The hitter you receive in return for Joba can be of any position, since the new player can fill the Util spot with Kennedy moved over to MI, replacing Renteria. Even before a trade gets done I would drop Renteria for almost anyone, though Delwyn Young or Christian Guzman would be preferred additions.

The last type of move I would consider would be moving Podsednik to a team more desperate for steals. Depending on what you can get in return compared to the estimated stolen base loss, acquiring a more powerful outfielder like Jonny Gomes may increase your point total in several categories.

With at least some of the moves I suggested implemented, hopefully your team will gain some ground in the categories you are really lacking in without losing too much in the ones you are currently doing well in. For some people it is either first or nothing, but for others finishing in fifth is better than in one of the last spots. If you are in the latter group, let's see how far your team can climb.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:14am

Former top pitching prospects revisited

Upon receiving various e-mail requests regarding my thoughts on some of the more controversial, young, and recent former top prospects that are battling their way up the major league ladder, I have decided to weigh in on a few big name pitchers that have given fantasy owners nothing but little results and headaches thus far. So, I have given myself the task of rethinking the projected statistics for Clay Buchholz, Phil Hughes, Franklin Morales, Homer Bailey, and Mike Pelfrey, five of the biggest head-scratchers to come through the minor league ranks in recent years.

To find out how these projections compare with the game's current crop of top prospects, check out THT's Top 100 List.

Clay Buchholz
Since his jaw-dropping no-hitter in September of 2007, major league success has been hard to come by for Buchholz. That could all change if Boston allows consistent starts to come his way, and Tim Wakefield's recent trip to the disabled list may be just the opportunity he's been looking for. Still just 24 years old, Buchholz re-enters Boston's rotation with a refined repertoire, a true pitcher's mentality, and a giant chip on his shoulder. He has much to prove to jilted Boston fans. His sky-high projections have not changed much in my mind. If I could only have one player from the list to start my rotation with, it would be Buchholz. Hands down.
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 3.68 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 180 SO / 187 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
211 IP / 3.17 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 16 W / 8 L / 209 SO / 191 H / 59 BB

Phil Hughes
After a moderately successful debut in 2007, the injury bug struck in 2008, resulting in a mostly lost season for the Yankees' prized arm. 2009 has been nothing but success for the 23-year-old, but it has come in a much different fashion than fantasy owners expected. Hughes has been an ace out of the bullpen, anchoring down a set-up role for the first-place Yanks. His future is still as a starter, but this type of bullpen success means good things heading forward. One downside to consider when evaluating Hughes is the unfortunate Yankee Stadium home run conditions that right-handers must face. Much like Buchholz, Hughes has needed some time to adjust, but his projections are not far off from where they were when he was tearing through the minor leagues three seasons ago.
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 3.91 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 14 W / 9 L / 188 SO / 190 H / 63 BB
Prime Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.40 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 214 SO / 195 H / 55 BB

Franklin Morales
Morales has shined coming out of Colorado's bullpen over the last month. But his future is still in the rotation, and it seems that the Rockies have no intention to make Morales a permanent bullpen figure. His stuff has a reputation for staying strong throughout a 100 pitch outing. Of course, Morales' ultimate production will be hampered by Coors Field, but he is still on track to become the ace of a pitching staff desperately in need of one.
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 4.08 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 186 SO / 193 H / 74 BB
Prime Year Projection:
213 IP / 3.60 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 16 W / 10 L / 214 SO / 197 H / 64 BB

Homer Bailey
The Reds, in the midst of a down season, seem to be convinced that Bailey can work through his notorious big league struggles with the aid of a consistent, pressure free rotation spot. Things have not worked out, leading me to think that his career path is closer to that of a Quadruple-A pitcher rather than a major league ace. The true outcome probably lies somewhere in between. He is still just 23-years-old and hasn't lost a bit from his impressive stuff. Even if he doesn't settle down and find the strike zone anytime soon, he is smart enough to eventually pick up on a tip or two that will aid him in getting out major league hitters. He should be a major league starter for a number of years. But when scouts talk about a player being more of a thrower than a pitcher, it's players like Bailey that come to mind. He needs a lot of work and a shot of the confidence that he enjoyed throughout his minor league career. The upside is still there, but I am skeptical.
Average Year Projection:
187 IP / 4.59 ERA / 1.47 WHIP / 10 W / 13 L / 164 SO / 194 H / 80 BB
Prime Year Projection:
200 IP / 3.98 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 12 W / 11 L / 193 SO / 198 H / 71 BB

Mike Pelfrey
I never was a fan of Pelfrey. He lacked the secondary stuff necessary to live up to his New York hype. He is certainly a quality back of the rotation type for the Mets, but a desperation pick-up for fantasy owners. He is the oldest player on the list and has little projection left.
Average Year Projection:
200 IP / 4.54 ERA / 1.40 WHIP / 10 W / 13 L / 122 SO / 208 H / 71 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 3.99 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 140 SO / 217 H / 64 BB

Posted by Matt Hagen at 2:22am

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Freddy Sanchez finally traded

It appears as though Pirates IF Freddy Sanchez has finally been dealt to the San Francisco Giants for SP prospect Tim Alderson. This is a terrific haul for the Pirates. I may have said this before, but I've really grown to love GM Neil Huntington. If only my Mets could find a guy with a good head on his shoulders. At least we don't have Brian Sabean running our team, though.

Alderson isn't major league ready yet, but he's a great prospect and someone to keep an eye on, especially if he can begin to strike more batters out. In keeper leagues, he's probably owned, but depending on the depth of the league, maybe not.

Sanchez should play everyday for the Giants, and Juan Uribe looks like the biggest loser here. He'll play 20% of the time at SS, at most, and spell Sanchez and 3B Pablo Sandoval occasionally. It's tough to say what the Giants will do, but we'll probably see Sanchez hitting in the top half of the order. They sure seem to like him enough. His other stats shouldn't be affected very much.

It is important to note, however, that Sanchez's 2009 batting average is being propped up by a too-high .343 BABIP. His K% has risen to 17% after being around 11-12% the past two season and around 8-9% the two before that. Now makes for a good time to trade Sanchez yourself since he is likely due for a regression here, and without much power or speed, his value will be extremely limited.

In Pittsburgh, the new double-play tandem could be Ramon Vazquez and Delwyn Young. Neither are mixed league worthy but each receives a big boost in NL-only value. This seems to clear an OF spot for a Lastings Milledge call-up, which will finally reduce Brandon Moss to fourth outfielder status. It's a shame because he was finally showing signs of life this month. Andrew McCutchen and Garrett Jones will be the other two outfielders.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:51pm

Cliff Lee to Phils

Lots of activity today with the MLB trade deadline approaching, the biggest trade taking place between the Phillies and Indians. The Tribe sent SP Cliff Lee and OF Ben Francisco to the Phils for four prospects: SP Jason Knapp, SP Carlos Carrasco, C Lou Marson, and IF Jason Donald.

Lee's value receives a small uptick, moving to the easier National League with a terrific offense in front of him and an improved defense. His home park is less friendly in terms of Ks (-0.8%), HRs (+22.8%), and hits (+1%-ish), but it does reduce walks by 6%. The home runs are what we'd need to worry the most about (that's a huge increase), but the easier league, better defense, and additional wins should help recoup most of that value, if not more.

Francisco's value takes a huge dive. He was an undervalued source of both power and speed but will no longer be playing full-time with OF Raul Ibanez, Shane Victorino, and Jayson Werth blocking the way in Philly. He can safely be dropped in most mixed leagues for as long as those three are healthy. NL-only leaguers can make a modest bid if you're playing someone like Frank Catalanotto or Drew Macias in your outfield.

As far as the prospects go, Carrasco is the most likely to have 2009 value. Fausto Carmona will likely take Lee's place in the rotation for now, but Carmona kind of sucks and the back end of the rotation is far from stable. SP Jason Westbrook is also working his way back from injury, but there is a chance Carrasco gets the call at some point over the next couple months. Those in deep AL-only leagues might want to stash him. His control has been a problem at times in the past, but he could end up being pretty good immediately.

Although C Victor Martinez is likely to be traded, the Indians have C Kelly Shoppach, so Marson probably won't get called up (plus, he also has super-prospect C Carlos Santana to compete with now). Donald is just coming back from surgery, so it would make sense for the team to keep him in the minors the rest of the year. Knapp is still playing in A-Ball and is at least a year or two away.

With Francisco and Ryan Garko gone, there is a chance Matt LaPorta receives the call soon. He'd be 12-team mixed league worthy (though might make better trade bait than anything else) if he does get recalled, but let's not get ahead of ourselves just yet. This is merely speculation. If he isn't recalled, the Tribe could play Chris Giménez most days. That'd make him AL-only worthy, but not much else. He does have decent power, but that's about it.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:31pm

Snell to Seattle and Clement to Pittsburgh

The Pirates and Mariners completed a deal today, sending Ian Snell and Jack Wilson to the Mariners for Jeff Clement, Ronny Cedeno and a trio of minor league pitching prospects.

A solid fantasy option in 2007, Snell struggled throughout most of 2008 and 2009 and was sent down to Triple-A after repeated threats from the GM to improve his performance. In Triple-A Snell was dominant through 37.1 innings of work, allowing just 28 hits and striking out 47 batters compared to walking 13. For those who believe in changes of scenery, Snell now makes a nice add in most formats because of his clear upside. Looking at the messy Mariner rotation, it is clear Snell will be starting in the majors for Seattle.

Long term, Jeff Clement also figures to benefit from this trade. The now 25 year old catcher/first baseman was not crushing Triple-A pitching he was last year, but was still hitting well enough to prove that more time in the minors would not accomplish anything. Now with a team much more likely to give him playing time, Clement has a good chance of becoming the Pirates starting first baseman in 2010.

A lot of Clements' future fantasy value hinges on him retaining his catcher eligibility, but in Pittsburgh with Ryan Doumit behind the plate, I am not sure if that can happen.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:58pm

The control hitters have over everything

A couple weeks ago, I wrote an article titled "The control hitters have over LD%," examining why it's a bad idea to use single-year line drive rates in any discussion of a hitter's underlying skills. Afterward, I received an e-mail from a reader who wanted me to go a step further:

Hi Derek,
I really enjoyed your post on the stability of LD% over time. It was very helpful to have the GB% correlation (.65) as a comparison. I want to encourage you to do a post at some point on the stability of a variety of common conventional and sabermetric stats; I fully understand the concept of looking for stable, repeatable skills but I have little idea what is stable and repeatable! For example, how stable is a player's walk rate? Strikeout rate? HR/FB rate?

Just a table of 20 of these stats would be really cool for perspective.

With that, here we go...

The results

As I said last time, this is far, far from a comprehensive study. For comparative purposes, though, it can be quite useful. Anyway, I looked at all hitters from 2004 through 2008 who amassed at least 350 at-bats in adjacent seasons (and played on the same team both years, to eliminate some park-to-park biases). What you're seeing is the R-squared results for each stat, which essentially tells us how much of the variation in Year 2 can be explained by the Year 1 figure.

+---------------------------+------+
| STAT                      | R2   |
+---------------------------+------+
| Batting Average           | 0.18 |
| On-Base Percentage        | 0.36 |
| Slugging Percentage       | 0.37 |
| OPS                       | 0.35 |
| ISO Power                 | 0.52 |
| ISO Discipline            | 0.60 |
| Batting Average with RISP | 0.06 |
+---------------------------+------+
| Contact (K) Rate          | 0.76 |
| Walk Rate                 | 0.61 |
| HBP Rate                  | 0.37 |
| Pitches per PA            | 0.61 |
+---------------------------+------+
| BABIP                     | 0.15 |
| 1B per BIP                | 0.21 |
| 2B per BIP                | 0.16 |
| 3B per BIP                | 0.26 |
| AB/HR                     | 0.42 |
| HR/FB                     | 0.59 |
| GIDP Rate                 | 0.13 |
+---------------------------+------+
| LD%                       | 0.09 |
| GB%                       | 0.60 |
| OF FB%                    | 0.52 |
| IF FB%                    | 0.43 |
+---------------------------+------+
| SBO%                      | 0.33 |
| SBA%                      | 0.80 |
| SB%                       | 0.10 |
+---------------------------+------+

Quick takeaways

As we always stress here at THT Fantasy, stats like batting average and BABIP are poor indicators of a player's actual skill. It's much better to focus on component skills like contact rate, which is one of the most stable stats around. Home runs are relatively stable, which might surprise some but really shouldn't—after all, Juan Pierre isn't going to start posting 30-home run seasons, nor is Ryan Howard going to hit only five home runs.

As we saw last time, line drive rate is very unstable, while the other batted ball stats are much more stable. And for those who like to blame hitters for being "unclutch" with runners in scoring position (I hear far too much of this from fellow Mets fans), check out no. 7 on the list.

Quick glossary

EDIT: I'm adding this late per request. Sorry for some things being a little unclear to begin with.

ISO Power: SLG-AVG
ISO Discipline: OBP-AVG
Contact (K) Rate: Contact rate on a per AB basis (not a per pitch basis). Calculated as (AB-K)/AB
HR/FB: Home runs per outfield fly ball
GIDP Rate: GIDP/BIP
LD%: Line drives as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
GB%: Groundballs as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
OF FB%: Outfield flies as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
IF FB%: Infield flies as a percentage of all non-bunt balls in play
SBO%: Stolen base opportunity rate. The percentage of times a hitter reaches first and thus is in position to attempt a steal. Calculated as (1B+BB+HBP-IBB)/TPA.
SBA%: Stolen base attempt rate. The percentage of times a hitter attempts a steal given that he is on first base. Calculated as (SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP-IBB).
SB%: Stolen base success rate. The percentage of times a hitter is successful on a steal attempt. Calculated as SB/(SB+CS).

Concluding thoughts

That's all for today. Any questions, feel free to comment or e-mail me!

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:08am

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Fantasy Fallout: Garko heads to San Francisco

Garko is best described as solid, yet unspectacular. (Icon/SMI)

Last night the Indians and completed a deal, sending first baseman/outfielder Ryan Garko to the Giants for minor league pitcher Scott Barnes and a player to be named later. Let's look at the implications of this deal from a fantasy perspective, one concerned mostly about new playing time situations.

Fallout: Ryan Garko

This trade has a slightly positive effect on Garko. He played in almost all of Cleveland's games either at first or in the outfield, and should still receive most of the playing time at first base for the Giants. Garko will receive all of the playing time against left-handed starters, but may split some time with Giants current primary first baseman Travis Ishikawa when facing a righty. Overall though, at bats should come aplenty for Garko with his new team.

Leaving the AL and heading to the relatively easier NL West will help pad Garko's stats as he will be facing, in general, less skilled pitchers. This will only help him to a strong finish in what has been a bounce-back season for him after a forgettable 2008.

With his ability to hit for both average and power, Garko is a more than serviceable first baseman even in somewhat shallow leagues. In any league deeper than 12 teams mixed he should be owned, and I would consider adding him in a 12 team league if unowned. Not necessarily so much because this trade boosts his value, but because he was a fairly underappreciated fantasy commodity to begin with.

Fallout: Travis Ishikawa

The big loser in this trade is Giants first baseman Travis Ishikawa, who now will see most of his playing time taken away and given to Garko. Ishikawa was having a mediocre year, batting .269 with seven home runs and two steals in his first full major league season so his fantasy value was limited before the trade. Now he can effectively be dropped in almost all leagues and even his long-term value is ruined by the deal since Garko will be under team control through 2012.

At almost 26 years old, time is running out for Ishikawa to establish himself as a big league regular and this trade is no vote of confidence from the Giants front office.

Fallout: John Bowker

John Bowker, a player some were expecting to overtake Ishikawa and become a solid fantasy regular, is maybe hurt the most from the deal.

A couple of weeks ago Bowker was mashing in Triple-A to a .347 average with 17 home runs tune, and recently called up to the majors looking like he would win the first base job. Now fast forwarded to the present, after an 11 game major league audition in which he barely touched the ball, Bowker is back in the minors to continue working on his game. He is no youngster at 26, so time is running out for him to establish himself as well.

Fallout: The Indians infield

Space is now clearing up in the Indians infield and Andy Marte may now see some long-awaited at bats as he was called up from Triple-A where he was having his renaissance season. Struggling third baseman Jhonny Peralta is trying his hardest to prevent that from happening—going 10 for his last 17—but the Indians want to give Marte a shot.

Kelly Shoppach will receive more playing time at catcher since Victor Martinez figures to spend more time at first base, at least as long he does not get traded. You know my opinion of Shoppach. I have not heard the word on how Matt LaPorta will be handled through all of this, though overall the trade is positive news.

Stay patient, LaPorta owners.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:02pm

Trade deadline: A few bullpen situations to watch

MLB’s trading deadline is around the bend. How many times will obsessive fantasy junkies be checking Twitter for trade scoops this week?

Some leagues may be won and lost this week on the basis of the quickest waiver wire trigger finger. Will there be any major sources of saves to come into fantasy leagues over the next few days? Time to review some bullpen situations just in case…

Arizona: Chad Qualls has the job at the moment and he’s been absolutely solid. Unfortunately, the team is nearly out of contention, and reportedly at least a dozen teams have inquired about the Diamondbacks’ ace reliever. Earlier in the month, the team traded reliever Tony Pena to the White Sox. Pena probably figured to be Qualls’ replacement, but now that he’s gone, where would the team turn? The most logical candidate is Jon Rauch, who has closer experience and currently serves as the team’s eighth inning setup guy. However, Rauch has been positively dreadful this year with a slipping K/9 rate and borderline command. He’s been much more lucky of late than good, and it’s hard to figure he’d keep the job very long—if he gets it at all. Instead, deeper leagues may wish to roster Juan Guttierez (more impressive than his stats show) or Clay Zavada.

San Diego: The Padres have told teams they are open to hearing offers on Heath Bell, although supposedly, they have also told teams the price will be high to attain Bell. Many people have speculated that Edward Mujica would be Bell’s replacement, but Mujica has been inconsistent this year. A few too many fly balls and walks limits his ability to lock down the closer role. Meanwhile, the Padres bullpen is stuffed with more candidates, including Luke Gregerson (50 strikeouts in under 44 innings), Mike Adams (a 1.06 ERA and 0.76 WHIP since returning from DL), and Greg Burke (one of those closer-of-the-future guys). This has all the earmarks of a closer-by-committee.

Cincinnati: There have been mixed reports about whether the Reds are buyers or sellers at the deadline. If the team decided to sell its closer, Francisco Cordero, a number of teams would be interested. The team doesn’t have a clear-cut heir apparent. David Weathers is pitching eighth innings at the moment and has been very solid this season. However, Weathers will be 40 years old in September, and if the team wishes to think about next season and give a kid a shot, they could turn to Nick Masset, sporting an impressive 2.55 ERA and 0.99 WHIP.

Pittsburgh: The trade-aggressive Pirates seem inclined to trade Matt Capps. The closer has been terrible this year, so maybe the question should be why anybody would want him. Regardless, if Capps goes, the team would need to find a replacement. The most logical candidate is current setup guy John Grabow, but his 25 walks in 44 innings is hardly impressive. Our bet is that Joel Hanrahan might eventually end the season as he started the season—a closer. Hanrahan has good stuff but had underperformed his peripherals in Washington. As a Pirate, though, he’s got a 3.38 ERA. So far, so good.

Toronto: Last week, Scott Downs let up five earned runs in three innings, perhaps tamping down trade interest from other teams. However, he’s been solid most of the year and if the price is right, Toronto might very well dish him for a prospect. Jason Frasor would presumably pick up the job again, although he was shaky in the role when given the opportunity to fill in for an injured Downs earlier this season. Keep an eye on Brandon League, who has combined impressive strikeout ability with a great groundball rate. The team could always pick up a reliever in trade too, especially if Downs is part of a Roy Halladay deal.

Who else might go? Will there be deals that nobody anticipates?

I'll be posting fantasy analysis on breaking trades this week on Twitter @fantasyfix

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:03am

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Luke Hochevar is striking

For 2006 1st overall pick Luke Hochevar, things were not looking good heading into July. The frustrating righty had a 4.96 ERA through eight starts, and almost as many walks (17) as strikeouts (18). Through four July starts however, Hochevar has struck out 30 batters—including a career-high 13 in last night's game against the Rangers—compared to just three walks. The improved control and command has shown in his last two starts in which he has given up just four runs in 13 innings, good for a 2.75 ERA.

Unowned in plenty of leagues, Hochevar is worth consideration to be added. I would not call him a must-add just yet because these strikeout numbers over his last two starts are not in line with what he has done during the rest of his pro career. In the low minors his K/9 rate was about a batter an inning. Then in Triple-A it fell to just under 7.00 and in the majors he has struck out a Ross Ohlendorf-esque five batters per nine innings. So bottom line, the strikeout numbers of late have come seemingly from nowhere.

For those in mid-to-deeper leagues with an available roster spot, it probably is worth it to bet that perhaps Hochevar has turned some corner and will continue to rack up the strikeouts going forward.

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:51pm

Friday, July 24, 2009

Holliday to Cards

As you probably already know, Matt Holliday has been traded to the St. Louis Cardinals for prospects Brett Wallace, Shane Peterson, and Clayton Mortensen. Cards fans are hoping this is not Mark Mulder Trade Part 2, and more like the Tim Hudson deal the A's made with the Braves three days earlier. Holliday is at least healthy (impressively played for Cards tonight, batted fourth behind Pujols, and went 4-for-5 with a double and a steal) so that is a good start.

From a fantasy perspective the trade is good for the two major pieces involved. Holliday gets a boost in value entering a much more impressive lineup and batting behind the best hitter in the world. I would say Pujols will benefit from Holliday's presence as well, but I am not sure we can expect Pujols' numbers to actually improve.

The key prospect the A's received in return, Brett Wallace, now has a clear path to the majors. Wallace is currently playing third base in Triple-A this year, however because of his 6-foot-1, 245 pound frame scouts think his eventual home will be first base. The Cardinals have EDIT: ~~Scott Rolen~~ Joe Thurston/Troy Glaus and Pujols holding down those two positions and the A's have... Bobby Crosby/Adam Kennedy and Daric Barton. Those players should not keep Wallace down for long and he could see major league playing time as soon as the end of 2009 and a starting job in 2010.

Wallace projects as a high-average mid-power type—I've heard Billy Butler and Pablo Sandoval comparisons—so do not have to high expectations of him, at least not in his first couple of seasons. The power may develop further in the future, nobody can know for sure, but no one would be complaining with a .290, 15-20 home run third baseman. It seems the trick to his value long-term will be staying at third base and not moving over to first.

The two players hurt most by the trade are Colby Rasmus and Rick Ankiel, who both figure to lose playing time, though we will have to wait see which one loses more. Ankiel got the nod tonight in center, but that might not be the case going forward. Both are left-handed hitters by the way, so a righty/lefty platoon is not in the works.

Eric Patterson was called up to take Holliday's spot on the Oakland roster and got the start today in center, but I do not believe he will get most of the playing time. Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney I would think will platoon in center, Hairston will man left, and Travis Buck and later Aaron Cunningham may now be in line for some PT in right. The A's outfield picture is still muddy and most of these players are borderline fantasy-relevant—especially when splitting time—so I would not worry about how things shake out. Travis Buck, who is playing well in Triple-A right now, is one guy I would keep an eye on in deep leagues.

From a fantasy perspective, the other two players the A's received are pretty much irrelevant. If you are in a dynasty league and want to know who they are, I'll link to Evan's write-up of the trade again because he discusses the makeup of those two guys.

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:06pm

End of days

Betting on the emergence of prospects can be frustrating—apart from such matters as the caliber of the guy above the prospect on the organizational chart, and the will of the parent club to avoid contractual triggers, there’s the question of whether the prospect’s approach in the minors will even translate to the majors. However, once a player reaches the majors and gets an extended audition, predicting when he’ll leave should be more straightforward.

We decided to explore this question. We wanted to find the level of performance at which fielders post their final season of consequence.

We gathered all seasons from 1990-2008 that may have been fantasy-relevant. We chose 300 AB as the minimum load for a potentially valuable season; that’s probably low, but we wanted to err on the side of too many seasons. In each season, we assigned players to the position where they played the most games. (If a player played two positions equally often, we qualified him at both.)

We then asked: What is the OPS for these players in the year before they disappear—i.e., in their final 300-AB season? We could have used a more sophisticated metric than OPS, such as wOBA or Predicted OPS, but we went with OPS for its simplicity and familiarity. (In truth, the question is not by what measure players should be deemed done but by what measure players are deemed done by major-league GM’s. For all we know, GM’s steer by BA....)

We expect that the onset of obscurity varies by the offensive demands put upon the player, so we grouped the results by position. Note that the only position that mattered was the batter’s position in his final 300-AB season; we did not track whether players were shifted from more defensively stringent positions.

Because 2009 is not in the books, we did not treat 2008 as anyone’s final season (there may be a few players who last played in 2007 but whose careers are not over, but they should not soil the analysis). We did include players who had just one 300-AB season (by definition, their last one).

Here are the results:

End of the Road
Position	OBP	SLG	OPS
1B	.350	.440	.790
3B	.325	.397	.722

2B	.326	.370	.696
SS	.311	.358	.669

LF	.339	.416	.755
CF	.326	.380	.706
RF	.336	.428	.764

C	.322	.390	.712
DH	.338	.439	.777

Note that these are aggregate levels; some batters had better numbers when they checked out and some had worse. And obviously, there are team-level considerations that we are missing, notably who (if anyone) is ready to take over. Still, the trends are as we would expect: The bar for further paychecks is high for first base and the corner outfield positions and lower for 2B, SS, CF, and C.

This is a sound starting point—when a player slips to this level, he (and you) should be scouting other opportunities. However, even better would be to say “For an OPS of X, a player’s chance of losing his job is Y.”

So let’s try that. For players who qualified at first base, we arranged all the player-seasons from highest to lowest OPS. We would expect to find many more “final destinations” at the bottom of the list than at the top, and indeed there are: Only one of the 25 top-rated seasons (4%) was a cul-de-sac, whereas 9 of the 25 bottom-rated seasons (36%) were.

Here is the graph for first base. The blue line is OPS, for non-overlapping buckets of 25 batters. The purple columns are the observed fade rate for each group; the thick black line is a trend line. (We say “fade rate,” not “extinction rate,” because the players might still putter around baseball; however, never again do they log 300 AB in a season.)

The trend line lolls around 5% for a while (even the best players are vulnerable to a career-ending injury). And then, starting around .850 OPS, fade rate rockets up, eventually surpassing 30% for the dregs of MLB first basemen. (The miracle might be that that rate is not higher; it may speak to the slow pipeline of talent within an organization.)

Armed with this chart, and knowing the OPS of a first baseman, we can now guess his chance of not attaining 300 AB next season. Here are the projected fade rates for the first basemen who are on pace for 300 AB this season:

Bailout Neediness, 1B
Player	YTD OPS	Fade Rate
Pujols	1.161	3.3%
Fielder	1.047	4.1%
Votto	1.034	4.2%
Morneau	.996	4.4%
Youkilis	.979	4.6%
Cabrera Mi	.947	4.9%
Branyan	.941	5.0%
Helton	.934	5.1%
Berkman	.932	5.1%
Teixeira	.916	5.3%
Gonzalez Ad	.910	5.4%
Morales K	.896	5.7%
Howard	.878	6.2%
Prado	.871	6.5%
Pena C	.866	6.7%
Lee D	.864	6.9%
Konerko	.858	7.2%
Overbay	.849	7.9%
Johnson N	.835	9.1%
Garko	.807	13.4%
Butler	.804	14.0%
Cantu	.775	19.4%
LaRoche Ad	.770	20.2%
Loney	.758	22.1%
Kotchman	.747	24.0%
Huff A	.732	26.0%
Ishikawa	.727	26.7%
Giambi	.697	29.3%
Davis C	.671	30.5%
Murphy Dan	.662	30.9%

There’s roughly a 50% chance that at least two of the bottom five players won’t be entertaining fans in 2010.

There is a lot of room to extend this study. The natural next variable would be age—it is possible that MLB owners are pokier with the pink slip for younger players than for older ones. We could also focus on base skills, such as contact rate and walk rate, rather than on surface stats. Still, this approach is fresh ground for figuring long-term worth, for fantasy and major-league GM’s alike.

Posted by John Burnson at 2:20am

Waiver Wire: NL

Edwin Encarnacion | Cincinnati | 3B
YTD: .209/.341/.365
True Talent: .271/.355/.466
Next Week Forecast: 1.3 HR, 4 Runs, 5 RBI, .276 BA, 0.3 SB
You didn’t think Encarnacion would slug .365 the entire season, did you? Neither does True Talent. He was slowed by a wrist injury that held him to a .127/.286/.190 in April, but he's hit .308/.410/.577 since returning. Much of that was due to a recent hot streak against the Brewers when he hit .583/.688/1.083 in a four-game series. He’s always hurt the Brewers (.273/.355/.521 career); in the five games since that explosion, he’s hit .071/.316/.071. Still, his OBP shows he’s not falling apart, and he should continue to improve. That home run projection is awfully juicy, making Encarnacion a sweet pickup in many leagues. He’s likely off the table in NL-only leagues, but grab him if he’s not, along with mixed leagues deeper than 14 teams.

Seth Smith | Colorado | OF
YTD: .292/.395 /.489
True Talent: .284/.364/.470
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .286 BA, 0.3 SB
Colorado fans have been screaming for Tracy to give Smith the starting gig in left, but he wanted to give once-top prospect Carlos Gonzalez a shot first. Tracy finally agreed with the fans on Wednesday, naming Smith his starter after he’d hit .333/.353/.515 in eight straight starts. Smith has hit very well in the minors (.313/.379/.506) and has worked on refining his batting eye (.58 BB/K career in the minors, .65 in the majors in 2008, and .94 in 2009). His .80 contact rate in the majors (.82 in the minors) shows that his BA is strong, too. With a starting role, Smith becomes an instant add in all NL leagues and mixed leagues, as his True Talent OPS projects him in the top 30 of all OFs, with peripherals to match.

Ryan Hanigan | Cincinnati | C
YTD: .313/.406 /.375
True Talent: .268/.350/.367
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .273 BA, 0.1 SB
Ramon Hernandez is undergoing surgery to clean out his knee and will miss at least a month, making Hanigan the starter. True Talent shows how little power he offers, but that OBP tells you how strong his batting eye is, supported by his BB/K rate in the majors (1.24) and minors (.99). He spent six years in the minors, in part because of that light-hitting batting average, and his BA won’t hold up under full-time action. But he’s still going to hit well enough to make him a good option in 12-team NL-only leagues and for mixed leagues 24 teams and deeper, unless you're desperate for BA.

Troy Glaus | St. Louis | 3B/OF
YTD: N/A
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Glaus is already overdue from rehab on his January shoulder surgery, and a recent bout of back spasms suggests he’s not completely healthy just yet. Despite his fragility, Glaus has put up excellent numbers at the hot corner, like the .270/.372/.483 line he put up in 2008. The Cards have been trying him in the outfield at AAA, giving him position versatility and perhaps preventing further injury. If he comes back at the end of the month as planned, he could produce decent stats at a corner infield spot, as 3B has become a scarce position once again. Definitely stash him in your DL spot if you need the help and have the room, and pay close attention to how he stands up under everyday use; he may end up in a part-time role, at least at first. He’s not worth a pickup onto your active roster, but consider this a flag on him for you to watch him, especially if you’re in an NL-only league.

Jason Schmidt | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 3.6 K/9, 0.7 K/BB, 5.40 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Another guy who gets attention because of his All-Star name, Schmidt hasn’t pitched since mid-2007, and even then, he didn’t do so well (1.4 HR/9, 4.9 BB/9, 6.31 ERA). The skills are there for him to continue to strike guys out—even in that poor 2007 showing, he managed 7.7 K/9—and he's shown some good signs he's regained some of his skills. In seven starts at two minor-league levels this year, his ratios (7.5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9, 2.6 K/BB and 0.6 HR/9) are all strong, but not dominant. You’d like to see a guy ready to excel in the bigs dominate the minors, but he's ready for at least above-average performance. Deeper NL leagues can take a flyer on him right now, since pitching for the Dodgers will net even an average pitcher a few wins, and he’ll bring the Ks. The rest of us need to watch him for a start or two more, to see if his struggles in his 2009 debut were an adjustment to big-league talent, or an indication of diminished skills.

Tim Stauffer | San Diego | SP
YTD: 7.6 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 2.08 ERA
True Talent: 5.5 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 6.28 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 5.87 ERA
It’s the time of the year for teams to gamble on prospects or guys returning from injury, and Stauffer is a little bit of both. The first-round pick of the Pads in 2003, Stauffer fessed up to some shoulder weakness after he was drafted, ultimately leading to the labrum surgery that's kept him out since 2007. He finally worked his way back this season and has started twice, putting up two quality starts without collecting a win. That’s the problem with the Padres, of course—the best pitchers still need an offense behind them to win. True Talent sees him slipping back, but don’t be surprised if Stauffer beats that projection, even if he’s not going to do it by the margins he’s got right now. All but the deepest of mixed leagues should take a pass on Stauffer for now, but NL-only leagues deeper than 12 teams can gamble on Stauffer to see if he can bring them moderate Ks and a handful of wins.

Jonathon Niese | New York | SP
YTD: 8.4 K/9, 5.0 K/BB, 5.91 ERA
True Talent: 6.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 5.12 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.55 ERA
It doesn’t take much to make the Mets rotation these days, not with names like Livan Hernandez (4.93 ERA, 4.7 K/9) and Oliver Perez (7.68 ERA, 8.8 BB/9) still taking regular turns on the bump. But Niese has the distinction of being the Mets' top pitching prospect, so he got the call when Fernando Nieve tore a leg muscle. The label got Niese promoted last season a little ahead of schedule, and he struggled in his first and third starts, while holding the Braves scoreless in between. This year in the minors, he's done a good job of cutting back his walks (2.5 BB/9) while still putting up some good strikeout numbers (7.8 K/9). His major-league success will depend on smart pitching, however, not strikeouts, as his stuff isn't overpowering. Being the Mets' best pitching prospect isn't that amazing an honor—his ceiling is as a mid-rotation starter—but he's still talented. So keeper leagues shouldn't overbid, but NL leagues deeper than 14 teams can do a lot worse on the waiver wire. All other leagues should give him another start or two before acting, but he should be on everyone's radar to see what he does.

Rick Vandenhurk | Florida | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Vandenhurk will be the Marlins’ fourth starter now that Andrew Miller has been demoted, and with good reason. In nine starts with Triple-A New Orleans, Vandenhurk had a 4-1 record, with a 2.77 ERA, 0.925 WHIP and extremely strong peripherals (7.6 K/9, 3.42 K/BB, 0.6 HR/9). He’s been in the majors twice before in the past two years, with good strikeout numbers (9.6 K/9) but poor control (1.76 K/BB) and a subpar 1.5 HR/9; these all dragged his ERA and WHIP down to 6.96 and 1.80. He did very well in his first start in 2009, and his breaking ball—a problem in the past—appears sharper and more accurate. He's nobody's prospect, but has enough ability for the Marlins to keep giving him chances, so they see something good in his stuff. Keep your expectations low in any league, but NL-only owners in 12-team leagues should find some good value in his Ks if he can maintain his control, while he's not worth much for mixed-league owners just yet.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Chris Getz | Chicago | 2B
YTD: ..262/.319/.361
True Talent: .254/.317/.349
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 3 Runs, 2 RBI, .252 BA, 0.6 SB
With Beckham's emergence, Contreras' Fountain of Youth, and now Buehrle's perfect game, it's easy to overlook that Chris Getz went almost a month (June 28 to July 21) hitting .400 (.400/.446/.620, 3-for-3 on SB attempts to boot). TT thinks he's already a bit over his head, and his advanced fielding stats are pretty lame (28th in BIS +/-), but his fielding reputation is good and his stats look a lot like Adam Kennedy's at the same age. His 87% Ct% should sustain his batting average. Good for AL Leagues.

Tommy Hunter | Texas | SP
YTD: 4.7 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 2.17 ERA
True Talent: 5.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.73 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 10.2 IP, 0.6 W, 6 K, 5.45 ERA
Two-time Junior Olympic judo champion Tommy Hunter would be a lot more interesting on another team, in a couple more years. As a pitcher, he resembles Joe Blanton, and not just in physique. His minor-league GB% (career) is almost 50%, but he's at 33% in the bigs. It wouldn't be surprising to see him settle in around Blanton's marks of 44% GB%, 5.5 K/9, and 2.5 BB/9. And his martial arts background suggests good durability, though he's been a six-inning starter so far. He wasn't very good in the minors this year before the promotion, so expect very little this year, especially in that ballpark.

Adam LaRoche | Boston | 1B
YTD: .292/.333/.407
True Talent: .262/.340/.470
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, .263 BA, 0.1 SB
He's the big news in the AL this week, and it's sort of perplexing just how much dissing he gets around the web. He has a career 113 OPS+, and has hit a robust .296/.357/.544 in second halves of his career (1184 PA). Of course, the big question for fantasy players is how much PT he will get. Will Carroll cites a source saying work with Lowell is "going to be worth a lot of ink in journals,” by way of being optimistic. But we're thinking that teams with Lowell better handcuff themselves with LaRoche, too.

Sergio Mitre | New York | SP
YTD: 6.4 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 4.76 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
You may wonder how it is that a team like the Blue Jays can still be bringing up good pitching prospects, even after they've lost five rotation members to injury, while the Yankees—with boundless payroll—are stuck with … Sergio Mitre. Like the guy he's replacing (Wang), he gets tons of grounders (60% for career), and throws over 90 mph. The Yankee infielders have a good .793 RZR with 103 OOZ plays, so expect something like a 5.00 ERA/1.50 WHIP, good enough for wins with this killer offense and a place in AL leagues where the rate stats won't hurt you.

Ryan Rowland-Smith | Seattle | SP
YTD: 2.7 K/9, 0.3 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Rowland-Smith is a thoroughly unremarkable lefty “contact” pitcher with a career K:BB ratio of 1.79, FB% of 43.5%, and a fastball which averages under 90 MPH. And he's a must-play in AL Leagues! Why? The Mariners were built for this guy. Even last year, he had a fine 3.42 ERA in 118.1 IP. This year, the outfield defense is even better, with a staggering .955 team RZR and 181 OOZ plays, both tops in the AL.

Taylor Teagarden | Texas | C
YTD: .217/.267/.325
True Talent: .230/.314/.408
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 1 Runs 1 RBI, .226 BA, 0.1 SB
Teagarden is enigmatic. He's posted some otherworldly minor-league stats, but several peripherals have indicated they were more fluke than substance. The Rangers supposedly wouldn't consider trading him, yet he's been buried behind “Salty” this season, getting just 91 PA so far. Ron Washington has said he'll play more, supposedly to help avoid overheating in the hot Texas summer. In the minors, he hit lefties a lot harder, and would probably make a natural “strict” platoon situation with Salty, who hits RHP better. One of the league's best backup catchers for now.

Chris Tillman | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 9.2 K/9, 4.3 K/BB, 2.42 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Let's go outside the box a little bit here, since the O's pitchers are doing everything they can to stress the need for Chris Tillman's promotion. Some comments on last week's NL side about him can be summed up by noting: a) He's really good, and b) so are the AL East offenses. He has a reverse-split tendency (1.05 WHIP vsL, 1.32 vsR this year), much like the last great starter the O's had.

Michael Wuertz | Oakland | RP
YTD: 11.9 K/9, 4.7 K/BB, 2.72 ERA
True Talent: 9.2 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 3.68 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 Saves, 3.89 ERA
Wuertz always had good peripherals to go with his great slider. In 2009, he has ramped those up to the “great” range, with a robust 11.9 K/9 against just 2.5 BB/9. He's always used his slider to bore in on LHB, and this year it's giving them fits, as indicated by his 111/83 tOPS+ splits (R/L). He's scavenged up five wins, and while Bailey seems healthy, if anything should happen to him, there's little doubt now that Wuertz would close instead of Ziegler.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Betancourt to Rockies

In a relatively small transaction, the Indians have agreed to ship reliever Rafael Betancourt to the Rockies for a Single-A pitcher. As the fantasy player the question is, "Should I care?" To give a short answer: no, not really. Betancourt moves from one setup role to another and with the Rockies recent success, Huston Street is no longer a trade candidate, meaning Betancourt will not be closing games anytime soon unless injury strikes.

If anything Betancourt is hurt by the trade—as you would suspect for any pitcher moving to Coors—and the park could affect him more than it might other pitchers because he is primarily a flyball pitcher (career FB% rate of about 50 percent).

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:46pm

Roster Doctor

+----------------------------------------------------------------+
| Dan Uggla Plate Discipline                                     |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+
| Season | Team    | Judgment X  | A/P  | Bat Control | Bad Ball |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+
|  2006  | Marlins |          91 | 0.34 |          84 |       44 |
|  2007	 | Marlins |          95 | 0.39	|          82 |       41 |
|  2008	 | Marlins |          92 | 0.33	|          80 |       44 |
|  2009	 | Marlins |         100 | 0.23	|          85 |       54 |
+--------+---------+-------------+------+-------------+----------+

However looking at his plate discipline stats, Uggla has actually showed surprising improvement in this area this year, making his .230 batting average all the more suspicious. As his undeserved .257 BABIP climbs so will his batting average, making this a poor time to try to upgrade Uggla. He will upgrade himself naturally, if that makes sense.

I own Clippard in one league because of his SP eligibility. And because he is pitching well. (Icon/SMI)

As for the outfield, I like all of your hitters going forward. Do not sweat Kemp's .396 BABIP too much—sure he might hit closer to .300 than .320 the rest of the season but his power/speed combo allows him to maintain a very high BABIP rate. I also would not worry about selling Nelson Cruz because of his surprsing power display this season. It is mostly for real and if anything, his batting average could stand to rise some.

I am also impressed with your pitching, headed by the impressive combination of Vazquez and Kershaw. Baker, Wandy, and Danks are solid pitchers as well so I understand if you want to keep your rotation intact. If you are willing to take a risk, though, allow me to suggest somewhat of a radical strategy for your pitching staff.

Even in Head-to-Head leagues with standard categories I sometimes am a fan of the pitch-only-aces-and-strong-middle-relievers/closers strategy. Well, in this league with both K/BB and home runs allowed—both categories favoring relievers—the incentive is even greater to put that strategy to use.

It would work by trading most of your starters to bolster your bullpen and hitting lineup. A trade like Kershaw for a very good hitter is an example; I'd imagine Kershaw could command a near-elite hitter if Morales or Wandy were also added to the mix.

Once you have done that, you should start only the one or two starting pitchers you have remaining, and the five relief arms you own. You can start even more relievers if you acquire a reliever with SP-eligibility like Dan Meyer, Tyler Clippard, Alfredo Aceves, Franklin Morales, or Chris Sampson and start them in an SP spot.

With a pitching staff looking like that, Wins and Strikeouts will probably be tossed every week. ERA, WHIP, Saves, K/BB, and HR Allowed, however, should all be won most weeks. That means you will go 5-2 in the pitching categories and your hitting will be upgraded from the starting pitcher trades, so on paper it seems this strategy would work well, especially in this league.

I do understand though, if you do not want to overhaul a good-looking roster this late in the season. I'll leave the decision up to you.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:11am

What to Make of Brett Anderson and Other Prospect Notes

This week, I have broken down five new additions to the Top 50 and got caught up on my statistic projections. Visit our Top 100 List to see the latest version, complete with all of the latest advanced prospect projections.

Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland / MLB / 2/1/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #27 / Low: #53 / This Week: +26
2009 Thoughts:
After a slow start, Anderson is beginning to figure out big league hitters. His raw talent is taking over. He is a strong back of the rotation starter for the rest of the fantasy season, with an even brighter future ahead of him.
Average Year Projection:
201 IP / 3.62 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 172 SO / 190 H / 58 BB
Prime Year Projection:
215 IP / 3.20 ERA / 1.12 WHIP / 16 W / 9 L / 209 SO / 191 H / 50 BB
Notes:
7/22/09 - I should have known better. I've been sleeping on Anderson all year after his mildly poor start. He is starting to figure out the major leagues, and it shows in his attacking approach and confidence on the mound. If you're in a keeper league and you bought low on Anderson, I praise you.

Martin Perez / SP / Texas / Single-A / 4/4/91 / ETA: 2012 / High: #42 / Low: #57 / This Week: +13
2009 Thoughts:
Perez represents another great find for Texas' organization. The 18-year-old should remain in the South Atlantic League to close out the season, but stardom awaits if he continues to put in the work.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - Perez is inducing ground balls, striking out more than a hitter per inning, keeping his walks in check, and essentially dominating a league full of hitters that an 18-year-old shouldn't be facing.

Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston / Single-A / 10/19/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #46 / Low: UR / This Week: +6
2009 Thoughts:
Lyles' breakout season is showing the world why Houston made him a sandwich pick in the 2008 draft. He may finish up the season battling High-A hitters if everything stays on track.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - He's allowed a few more hits than one would like, but, besides Martin Perez, it's hard to find a better pitcher in the Sally League. His strikeouts are through the roof and his walks are at a manageable rate for a kid his age. I'm hoping to see more video of him in order to get a better feel for his pure stuff, but it's impossible to ignore his season. His success has been paramount in bringing respect back to Houston's scouting department and farm system.

Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B/SS / Cleveland / Advanced-A / 10/4/88 / ETA: 2011 / High: #47 / Low: UR / This Week: +12
2009 Thoughts:
Chisenhall has put his critics in their place with his strong full-season debut in the Carolina League. A Double-A promotion to close out the season could be in the cards.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - From a fantasy perspective, the only Chisenhall criticism that I can place on Cleveland is the fact that they moved the young man to third base. I would have loved to see Chisenhall get a legit shot to stay at shortstop. Oh well. Lonnie's bat will play just fine at third base too. Cleveland sports one of the more loaded farm systems in baseball.

Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta / Double-A / 9/12/89 / ETA: 2011 / High: #49 / Low: #78 / This Week: +14
2009 Thoughts:
Freeman's 2009 hasn't been as in-your-face as his 2008, but he has shown that his debut was no fluke. He calls Double-A Mississippi home, and for good reason
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
7/22/09 - The kid should hit for a good average no matter where he plays, but his power has been hit or miss thus far in his career. It's the only aspect of his game that is holding him back, as he displays good plate discipline and excellent contact skills for a wannabe power hitter. Give us the good stuff, Freeman. Dudes dig the long ball too.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:07am

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Good article on Regression to the Mean

Dave Cameron posted a great article today at USS Mariner about natural regression to the mean. It's nothing new, but it's certainly a topic that is vital for any successful fantasy owner. If you're unfamiliar with the topic, need a refresher, or simply want something interesting to read, head on over and check it out.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:22pm

Worst Monday: Balloting open

A broad slate of games yesterday, including five teams that scored 10 runs or more. Will the hitting outweigh the pitching? How low will this week's winning score be? Will it even be negative? Let's find out.

Entering's a snap:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

We'll sift through the entries & give the lowest score on Wednesday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Also, we wanted to recognize the winners from Week 5, John Kral and Ricardo Elorza. Only one of the two owned Johnny Cueto, but both were undone by starting pitching.

Posted by John Burnson at 7:59am

The closer one night stand

The saves category is one of the more frustrating in fantasy baseball, involving a good deal of luck and favoring those with the time luxury or misfortune—however you want to look at it—of being able to immediately react at the first breaking news of a strained shoulder. Sometimes life takes precedence over fantasy baseball and you simply cannot compete with those people in the adding of newly anointed closers.

There still are ways to get some cheap saves that do not require you to be the first to jump on injury or some other news that results in a new reliever coming in the ninth. One way—the way I will go on to describe in this article—requires you to be in a league with daily roster updates and relatively deep rosters so if your league does not fit the description, I'm sorry, this strategy probably will not work well for you.

For those whose leagues apply, keep reading.

He has pitched in how many consecutive games?

The concept is simple: Keep track of closers that have pitched in consecutive games and consider adding the team's setup man for one day, tomorrow's game. If the same team is leading by a small margin in tomorrow's game, they might not want to use their usual closer for a third or fourth consecutive night so you add the team's setup man ... and voila! The next game the usual set-up man pitches in the ninth instead, plays closer for a night and nets you an easy save.

Sometimes it works like charm, but often times things go awry.

Potential problems

I am not sure what percentage of MLB games include a save, but whatever that number is divided by two is the chance that the reliever you audition even has a chance of getting a save. Then, there is the chance the team uses its closer for a third straight night, or uses a different reliever as the fill-in closer.

Another problem that will occur more often in deeper leagues is that the potential fill-in closer (current set-up man) might be already owned. If that is the case, you can take a chance on a different reliever in that team's bullpen or forget about it.

Overall this strategy has a low success rate, but the five (more or less) saves it can cheaply garner you over the course of a season may help you greatly in the standings. Some of you looking over your league standings can easily picture how much those extra saves could help right now.

Concluding thoughts

As I noted before, it helps if your league has deep rosters so that roster spots themselves are not as valuable and can be used on something relatively trivial like this strategy. Some people, however, seem to have a slight obsession with closer-potential middle relievers who are not getting saves. Instead of holding onto one of those Matt Thornton, Matt Guerrier-types, maybe the roster spot would be better utilized by rotating between relievers who fit the criteria above. It all depends on your team and league type.

A tool that surprisingly comes in handy for this strategy is the THT Sparkline Generator. Clicking on the link will show you how to set the sparklines to your custom settings so it shows the games a team won by four or fewer (set it to four or three) runs in the past week.

Teams like the Yankees and Rays with three consecutive red upticks probably have overused their closers in the past few days and those team's setup men are good targets. Checking Mariano Rivera and J.P. Howell, the Sparklines were right, both closers made appearances the past three games and probably will not be used in a fourth even if it is a save opportunity.

With Monday night's games now finished we see neither the Rays nor Yankees games had a save situation (Yankees were close), so last night would not have worked. If you continue to keep track of closer use throughout the season though, every once in a while you will get a surprise save and it will all be worth it.

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:07am

Don’t give up on batting average just yet

If you ask an analyst to identify the statistical category that fantasy teams will find toughest to make up ground in roto leagues, chances are the reply will be “batting average.”

The premise behind such logic is typically based on the notion that average is a rate stat, and with a few thousand at-bats already accumulated, the opportunity to move AVG significantly becomes tougher as the season progresses. For example, a team that maintains a batting average of .272 at the half-way point and wants to get it up to .282, will need to accomplish a .292 average for the rest of the season.

That might seem daunting and we’re guessing that a lot of fantasy teams simply give up on chasing average thanks to the army of pundits who declare moving average upwards at this point of the season to be a Sisyphean task.

I have doubts about this logic. I think it’s quite foolish to assume that catching up in average is any bit more tough than making up ground in any other category. In some regards, I believe there's benefit to chasing a high average despite what conventional wisdom might say.

The first problem with typical analysis on batting average is one of perception.

Making a .292 average the rest of the year might seem intimidating. But what if I told you that you only needed to get 30 more hits than your competitors? Would that change your mind?

After all, average is merely hits divided by at-bats. If we normalize the denominator by assuming that teams in a given league will achieve roughly the same amount of at-bats, all that’s left is hits. (There are some factors why teams won’t get the same number of at-bats, but the spread in a typical league isn’t that large.) If teams in your league each accomplish roughly 3000 at-bats from here until the end of the season, the difference between your competitors’ assumed .282 average and your desired .292 average over those remaining at-bats translates to 30 hits.

Is 30 hits more daunting than, say, a gap of 10 steals? I’ll leave that up to you do decide.

“But wait,” you say. “Doesn’t the fact that I’m stuck with a .272 average at this moment indicate that I don’t have the players to achieve a .292 average the rest of the way?”

Answer: It depends.

The second problem with conventional wisdom that states that moving AVG up at this point of year is a fool’s errand is that it ignores economics—specifically supply-and-demand curves concerning available player talent. Sure, moving your average up with your current roster might be tough, but how about all those players who might potentially help you in the free agent pool?

People who play fantasy baseball love batters who hit home runs and steal bases. Typically, they give less respect to high-average players who don’t contribute in the power and speed categories.

Look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least 15 HR so far. How many of them are owned in your league? All of them?

Look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least 15 SB so far. How many of them are owned in your league? All but one or two?

Now look at every hitter in baseball this year with at least a .300 BA in at least 200 plate appearances. Are players like Martin Prado, Nick Johnson, Skip Schumacher, Maicer Izturis, Cristian Guzman, Scott Podsednik, Alberto Callaspo owned in your league? Would they be that hard to attain in trade? Unless you play in a very deep league with a shallow player pool, I’m guessing there’s good supply and mediocre demand on a batter who makes good contact with the ball and can be expected to put up a high average.

(Bonus note: Alberto Callaspo has 31 more hits than Jay “Batting Average Killer” Bruce to date. Did someone say 30?)

Often in fantasy leagues, we’re forced to make choices at this point of the season. Our teams might not be in position to dominate every category and finding a few extra points may be the difference between winning and coming in second place. We may choose to attack a certain category and give up on another category because that’s where we see the best opportunity for standings gain.

But be careful how decisions on punting one category can influence your team’s standing in the other categories.

The third and last problem with advice that tells teams that chasing AVG is a foolish endeavor at this point of the season is that it ignores the full ramifications and trade-offs of a team that elects to punt the category.

To drive this point home, I took the top 150 batters in the 2008 season. I wanted to determine the correlation between a batter’s success in an individual category and that batter’s overall value. The table below measures the degree of correlation on a scale of -1 to 1. The higher the number, the stronger relationship between a batter’s single category success and overall category success.

Category: Correlation with Overall Value
Runs: 0.79
RBIs: 0.66
Average: 0.54
Home Runs: 0.54
Steals: 0.26

As you see, average is roughly as important to a batter’s overall success as home runs, and certainly more important than stolen bases. Another way to look at this is to say that a fantasy team stands a better chance of giving up on steals without damaging their position in the other categories than to give up on average without hurting their team in categories such as runs and RBIs.

Ask most analysts to identify the statistical category that fantasy teams will find it easiest to make up ground in roto leagues, and many may answer, “steals,” because it’s a counting category that’s relatively scarce and having one good speed threat can make quite a difference. However, this advice ignores the fact that most batters who steal a lot of bases do little much else to help out.

The same can't be said about average. A batter doing well in average has a better shot at doing well in other categories. This could be reason alone not to give up on the category.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 3:25am

Roster Doctor

11 team mixed roto with 2 UT spots in the lineup
Scoring categories:
Hitters: R, H, HR, RBI , AVG, SB, BB, OPS
Pitchers: W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, K/BB

C Jorge Posada
1st Russell Branyan
2nd Aaron Hill
3rd David Wright
SS Michael Young
OF Carl Crawford
OF Adam Jones
OF Adam Lind
UT Alex Rodriguez
UT Franklin Gutierrez
BN Garrett Jones
BN Casey McGehee
BN Seth Smith
BN Colby Rasmus

SP Felix Hernandez
SP Javier Vazquez
SP Roy Halladay
SP John Lackey
RP Mariano Rivera
RP Andrew Bailey
RP Matt Capps
RP Leo Nunez
BN David Price
BN Kevin Millwood
DL Matt Lindstrom

I have a few trade offers on the table:

1. Branyan and Nunez for Mark Reynolds

2. Branyan, Young, Rasmus, Lackey for Jimmy Rollins, Alexei Ramirez, Kevin Youkilis

3. Bailey and McGehee for Brian Wilson

Rob,
I would do the trades in the following order: Branyan et al for Youkilis et al, then Bailey and McGehee for Wilson and then lastly, maybe, Branyan and Nunez for Reynolds.

The Youkilis trade is great for you. You are getting the best player in the trade, which is usually a good sign in leagues with less than 12 teams. In fact, Ramirez vs. Young is probably a toss up, depending on how much you need speed. Finally, who wouldn't want to be sitting on Rollins' upside but not be forced to start him?

I'd give up on McGehee, particularly now that the Brewers have filled some infield needs through trades. Bailey's a good, young reliever but Wilson should be a better source of saves coming down the stretch.

Lastly, I'd probably do the Branyan trade, particularly if you can also do the Wilson trade. I think you're getting the best player in this deal as well as long as you can sacrifice Reynolds' lower batting average for his added speed. If you don't need stolen bases, then maybe I'd think twice.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 2:30am

Monday, July 20, 2009

Grab CJ Wilson (again)

Texas closer Frank Francisco is on the DL again, this time with pneumonia. C.J. Wilson will therefore get the saves until Francisco returns, which could happen as early as Sunday.

Posted by Paul Singman at 6:16pm

Clone Wars: J.A. Happ and Zach Duke

So J.A. Happ has stormed through his first 10 starts and won six of them with no losses. I know we discussed Zack Duke a few weeks ago, but the similarities between his 2005 season and Happ this year called for a revisit. I found Duke was headed down in the second half, but does Happ have the same prediction? Let's take a look at their current seasons and find out.

                  IP      ERA        W       K       K/9      K/BB     HR/FB     BABIP     LOB%       xFIP
Zach Duke      126.0      3.29       8      65      4.64      2.03     8.60%     0.271    77.40%      4.48
J.A. Happ       87.0      2.90       6      61      6.31      1.91     9.40%     0.242    85.90%      4.78

Zach Duke

Not only was 2005 a great season for him, but his numbers did look very good. He had a K/BB of 2.52 in his first major league callup and although the 1.81 ERA was way over his head he had a xFIP of 3.66. It looked like he could have much better seasons ahead, but the strikeout rate was not for real. His K/9 dropped from 6.17 to 4.89, and his ERA ballooned to 4.47, 5.53 and 4.82 over the next three seasons.

What caused the drop in K/9 following 2005 season and his poor showings since then? In 2006, his fastball was almost 2 mph slower, resulting in batters swinging on 47.6 percent of his pitches to 43.9 percent of them. On top of this hitters improved their contact rate from 81.6 percent to 86.2 percent. Some of these rates have returned slightly, but this hasn't brought his K/BB back to 2.5.

As far as fantasy goes his value is really low even when his ERA is down like this season. He still can't strikeout anyone this season with a K/9 at 4.64, but is helped by a solid GB% of 45%. This has helped his BABIP, with the Pirates owning a top three UZR/150 among NL teams. Having strong defense will help his BABIP this season, but it won't be enough to help him keep his ERA this low all year.

MLB: JUN 20 Orioles at Phillies
June 20 2009: Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher J.A. Happ No. 43 during the game between the Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies on June 20, 2009. The Orioles won 6-5 at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Icon/SMI)

J.A. Happ

There has been a lot of excitement over Happ in his first 10 starts this season in Philadelphia. The numbers have been good in the minors, but so far his numbers this years point to a regression. His K/9 looks like a 2005 Duke at 6.31, but his BB/9 has always been around three in the minors.

Unless he can raise his K/9 in the second half there is going to be some regression for Happ this year. His pitches out of the zone right now are not fooling anyone. His O-Swing% of 18.6% is lower than any starter with more than 80 innings pitched. As long as that keeps up he will continue to keep a BB/9 over 3 and a K/BB around 2.

Looking at his splits so far this season you can see his ability to get lefties out (2.44 K/BB against lefties), but with a K/BB of 1.70 against righties he would make a good play against lineups heavy with left handers. He was never seen as anything more than a back of the rotation starter while he was progressing through the minors. Unless he can get more righties out his stuff will limit him to that or back to the bullpen. Perhaps he could even end up in a LOOGY role, which would end his fantasy relevance.

Conclusion

Happ has caught the attention of many with the 6-0 record so far, but his numbers don't back it up. His 2.90 ERA is sure to rise and at a xFIP of 4.78 he could really hurt your team in the second half. Duke is a little tougher to deal with since he has a track record, but you could still try to move him. Neither should be given away, but with the trade deadline looming in many leagues you could move them for solid value.

If I had to pick one of these two I would go with Happ for 2009 and even beyond. He has a much better team and a better strikeout rate. There is some concern though as his flyball rate is high at 47 percent and his home park is going to let more than the current 9.4 HR/FB. Long term though neither can do anything like this continuously. Expect both to go higher in 2010 drafts and not be worth the value for their owners.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 3:10am

Felipe flipped to Brewers

The D-backs are 19 games behind the NL West-leading Dodgers and are looking to ship out veterans for prospects. It was Felipe Lopez' time to go on Sunday, when he was traded to the Brewers in exchange for minor leaguers Cole Gillespie and Roque Mercedes. The trade should not affect Lopez much since he will still bat lead off for the Brewers, however his runs totals might increase slightly since the Brewer lineup is superior to the Diamondbacks', but not by much.

Hurt most is Craig Counsell, who should really struggle to find at bats since Lopez will be taking over second base from him. The rest of the Brewers fighting for playing time at third base—namely Bill Hall, Mat Gamel, and Casey McGehee—are also negatively affected by the trade since Lopez is simply another body potentially limiting their playing time.

The likely replacement in the D-backs system for Lopez is Ryan Roberts, who offers a little speed and not much else. He should only be considered in NL-Only leagues and the deepest of mixed leagues where playing time itself is rare and has value.

Posted by Paul Singman at 12:00am

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Mat Latos to debut tonight

Deciding whether Mat Latos, making his major league debut tonight, is right for your fantasy team? Here are some links for you to digest:

Baseball Intellect
Fantasy Ball Junkie (personal blog of our own Eriq Gardner)
RotoAuthority
Jason Grey (ESPN Insider required)
First Inning Stats
FanGraphs Stats

My take? Well, Latos has only thrown 47 innings at Double-A and none at Triple-A, so a projection system would have a hard time recommending him. Jason Grey said "he may be a year or two away." Still, his numbers in the low minors were very impressive with K/9 rates near or above 9.00 at every stop (and sometimes above 11.0). This translated to a solid 8.8 K/9 at Double-A, and his control has been tremendous everywhere. His ground ball rates, however, have been all over the place (but league average at worst).

Scouts seem to like Latos a lot, and his PITCHf/x data from the Futures Game shows some promise. While we're dealing with very small sample sizes here, his fastball was blazing at 96+ MPH with great rise (9.2 inches). Baseball America calls his fastball "one of the best in baseball." A scout Jason Grey talked to called it "as filthy as I've seen". The data certainly makes it look like a good one.

He would definitely need at least one more good pitch to succeed in the majors, but he only threw one breaking ball during the game. It was classified as a curveball but was more likely his slider. It came in completely straight at 83 MPH and had a little downward movement. We have hardly seen enough to pass judgment on him, but we do know that Latos won't succeed by throwing all fastballs to major league hitters. He apparently also throws a two-seamer and changeup (and maybe a knuckleball), so it'll be interesting to see what the PITCHf/x data looks like after his first couple starts.

Overall, I'd say he needs to be picked up in all NL-only leagues. In mixed leagues, I'd probably pass unless you really need a high-variance pickup (and even then, I might wait for someone like O's pitcher Chris Tillman... more on him tomorrow, though). One more consideration is that Latos threw just 56 innings last year and is at 72.1 already this year. How many more innings will the Padres let him throw before they shut him down for the year?

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:27pm

O-Cab on fire

Orlando Cabrera's 1-for-4 effort on Saturday snapped an impressive six game multi-hit streak he had going. The 34 year old shortstop played disappointingly through the first three months of his first season with the A's, finishing June with a .247 batting average, two home runs, and just two steals in six attempts. Now in July Cabrera has cranked his game up a notch (maybe two), batting .400 in the month so far with two home runs and most importantly six steals in as many tries. Cabrera will not provide much in terms of home runs but can hit for a respectable .280 average and steal a good amount of bases making him a solid fantasy option at shortstop for those in need of one.

Posted by Paul Singman at 12:35am

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Mitre to become Yanks’ fifth starter

With Chien-Ming Wang back on the DL and no timetable for his return, the Yankees are without a fifth starter and have decided to hand the job over to former Cubs and Marlins starter Sergio Mitre. Mitre will get his first start Tuesday night against the Orioles.

In Triple-A this year Mitre is pitching impressively, allowing 40 hits in 45 innings with just five walks (1.00 BB/9). Mitre will not strike a ton of guys out—expect around a 6.50 K/9 rate—but if he can keep up his impeccable control and use his sinker to keep the ball on the ground (65 GB% in minors) he can be a successful major league pitcher. In AL-Only leagues he is worth a speculative add and in deeper mixed leagues if you are looking for pitching help—specifically in the wins category—Mitre is certainly worth a look.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:12pm

Seth Smith officially to get more PT

I know myself and many other people have been expecting increased playing time for Seth Smith, well now the Rockies have officially announced the outfielder will get more playing time. Manager Jim Tracy told the Denver Post:

As we go from day to day, you have to look at situations and answer the question of who's the best offensive group to put out there to start the game, and right now, Seth Smith enters into that discussion every afternoon in my office. That's why you can't ignore him; you can't turn your head. We have to move on it, and I think every guy in that clubhouse realizes that.

Smith is currently batting .302 with 8 home runs, 34 RBI, and 3 steals and should be owned in all leagues.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:02pm

Friday, July 17, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL

Erick Aybar | Los Angeles | SS
YTD: .292/.333/.407
True Talent: .275/.317/.377
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .278 BA, 0.4 SB
Maicer Izturis is avoiding injuries by resting against LHP. That's great news for their other slick-fielding shortstop who doesn't play other positions, Erick Aybar. Aybar is a winning ballplayer in the mold of Orlando Cabrera (.273/.321/.396 career). With the injuries, Scioscia doesn't have to bench one of his three middle infielders, as Kendrick can DH. Aybar is adequate “filler” in mixed leagues until Vlad and Torii return, when his PT should again be reduced to 70% and his lack of HR or SB really hurt.

Brian Bannister | Kansas City | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.66 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 W, 3 K, 4.83 ERA
Bannister won lots of Internet fans a couple years ago by using BABIP in a sentence, and people were wondering if he'd figured out a way to suppress his below that of a typical pitcher with his mediocre peripherals. He's at it again in 2009, but we think that he's due for some rough times. His career second-half stats are awful (5.37 ERA, .285/.341/.491 against), he doesn't strike out many, and he has the Royals popgun barrage “supporting” him. Consider him only for one-day pickups against A's and M's.

Clay Buchholz | Boston | SP
YTD: 8.1 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 2.36 ERA (AAA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Supposedly only called up for one start, Buchholz is arguably the third-best option for the Red Sox right now. His strikeout rate is down a little from almost 9 K/IP between majors and minors last year, but he's inducing over 53% ground balls, and basically proving that he's far too good for AAA. For now, he's a high-risk/high-reward pickup in any format. He's an excellent SP waiting for Smoltz or Penny to falter.

Jeff Clement | Seattle | C?
YTD: n/a
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
You have to respect new GM Jack Zduriencik for being uncompromising about defense like an “Old School” guy, while using every latest piece of data (and the tools to analyze them) to the fullest. But at some point, enough is enough! In case nobody noticed, the M's are still in the race this year. This despite hitting an anemic .261/.313/.396 against RHP. Catchers have hit .217/.261/.332, DH .236/.330/.389. So, maybe Clement isn't a great defender, and not a top-tier hitter. But he's hit .292/.378/.496 against RHP in his minor-league career and even in the unlikely case that he's awful like 2008 again (.227/.295/.360 in 224 PA), even that's an improvement for the M's. A good preemptive pickup in AL Leagues, if allowed.

Alex Gordon | Kansas City | 3B
YTD: .095/.269/.238
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Seemingly everyone wrote a “who to get” article about players who would do well in the second half. Well, here's the guy. If he's on a roster, don't hesitate to trade for him. The ugly stat line (in just 26 PA) is friendly for a good trade price. With Inge, Rolen, Crede, and Teahen playing over their heads, 3B doesn't seem like a shallow position, but Lowell is dinged, Beltre out, and DeRosa gone. The aforementioned overperformers should decline, and Gordon could vie for fifth-best behind Longoria, A-Rod, Figgins, and Young.

Shaun Marcum | Toronto | SP
YTD: Injured
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Another high-risk pitching possibility, the Blue Jays could have some good news for a change this season, as he's due back soon. Marcum is a strike-thrower (99 BB in 310 IP in 07/08) who allows too many home runs to be a truly top-notch starter. Don't expect much ERA help, and the IP should be low as he's coming off an injury, but he could be a nice boost for WHIP in any format and pick up a few wins.

Gary Matthews | Los Angeles | OF
YTD: .226/.290/.321
True Talent: .254/.324/.386
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 4 Runs 4 RBI, .257 BA, 0.5 SB
Time for a round of, “How desperate are you?” Seemingly in another lifetime, GM Jr. hit .313 for the Rangers, earning a sweet contract from the desperate Angels. He even helped fantasy owners somewhat the following year, with 18 HR and 18 SB. Normally, we'd say the extra playing time boost he's getting due to the Hunter injury just makes him more damaging to rate stats. Yet, for an AL-only team that needs a miracle to catch up, an owner can encourage himself with the Shandler-ism, “once a player shows a skill, he owns it,” and desperately clutch for Matthews.

Magglio Ordonez | Detroit | OF
YTD: .260/.330/.343
True Talent: .294/.359/.449
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs 2 RBI, .292 BA, 0.1 SB
Fans have collectively “forgotten” what typical aging curves look like thanks to PED's, and Maggs is of an age when many in the past have collapsed. But ... we're guessing the manipulative Jim Leyland is tearing him down and platooning him to “inspire” him. He's an exceptional “buy-low” candidate now, though obviously high-risk. He has a career Ct% of almost 88%, giving him one of the better combinations of contact and power in the game.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: NL

John Baker | Florida | C
YTD: .258/.332/.421
True Talent: .261/.343/.401
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .260 BA, 0.1 SB
Baker's awful .184/.245/.204 June had him riding the pine in Florida, and fantasy owners ditched him, too. Then he rebounded to a .367/.387/.600 July, pushing his numbers closer to True Talent's prediction. He's actually accumulated exactly as many PAs this year as in 2008, but his numbers have slipped, partly because his BABIP has dropped from .367 to .318, and partly due to the wear-and-tear of catching nearly every day. He's not likely to continue his July production—not with a 53.9 GB% in 2009—and you may see some more swoons and spikes as he goes along, but he's about as good a waiver-wire catcher option as you can expect at this point in the season. Eight-team NL-only leagues can definitely find a spot for him, as can mixed leagues twice as deep.

Manny Parra | Milwaukee | SP
YTD: 7.8 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 6.78 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.87 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 5 K, 4.69 ERA
After an awful start to the year, Parra was banished to Triple-A to work out the kinks. If it hadn't been for injuries to Dave Bush and two awful starts by Seth McClung, he might be there still, but they recalled him—and he pitched seven shutout innings against Pujols and the Cards, with seven Ks and just one walk and three hits. He pitched well in three of his four minor-league starts, but still walked 13 while striking out 19 in 24.2 IP. Control is everything to Parra, who has yet to crack the 3.0 BB/9 threshold in the majors; he led all of baseball last season with 17 wild pitches. True Talent doesn't see his control improving enough to make him a lock for a roster spot, but he could break out at any time. Mixed-league owners should monitor his walk rate for a start or two before deciding, and to be sure he's going to stick in the rotation when Bush returns; NL owners shallower than 12 teams should do the same. Other NL owners can take a chance on a turnaround right now.

Jeff Francoeur | New York | OF
YTD: .256/.286/.358
True Talent: .267/.313/.412
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 Runs, 4 RBI, .275 BA, 0.2 SB
Frenchy has inspired more fantasies than Brigitte Bardot, and broken just as many hearts, making his brief surge after his trade to the Mets (4-for-9 in two games) sound like just another tease. A change of venue can sometimes inspire a player, and Francoeur was perhaps too comfortable in Atlanta, but it might not be enough to redeem his once-promising potential. He's shown a few good signs in 2009, including a 6.6% rise in FB% and a dropoff in strikeout rate (6.7 AB/K, up from 5.4 in 2008). Since he's also dropped his walk rate (3.6 BB%, down from 6.0 in 2008), however, his K/BB has plummeted from 2.85 to 3.92. He's been extremely durable, and will get the chance to play every day in New York, so inveterate optimists will no doubt grab him. If he makes his lowly True Talent projections, he'd be barely suitable for 15-team NL-only leagues, but reaching that will require some improvement. Deeper NL leagues can certainly take the gamble, but mixed leagues shallower than 20 teams need to wait, no matter how enticing those potential HRs are.

Ramon Troncoso | Los Angeles | RP
YTD: 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 1.75 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.53 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 3.39 ERA
Jonathan Broxton, the best closer in all of baseball before the break, started slipping at the end, giving up five total runs over two straight outings. Turns out he's got an irritated nerve on his right foot, something he didn't divulge immediately to the Dodgers, and which kept him out of the All-Star Game. He got a cortisone shot over the weekend, but Joe Torre said he'd be dealing with the toe for the rest of the season. That doesn't sound good, and it's likely to mean a diminished workload for Broxton, if not an eventual DL stint. Broxton owners would be well advised to take out an insurance policy in setup man Troncoso, who's had a solid year; others could certainly speculate on the righty groundballer (60.8 GB% in 2008, 56.8% in 2009). He won't bring typical reliever Ks, but those grounders are going to get vacuumed up by the Dodgers' solid infield. Even if Broxton gobbles up all the saves and the anticipated ERA adjustment hits, Troncoso is still going to help your ratios.

John Bowker | San Francisco | 1B/OF
YTD: .200/.333/.500
True Talent: .259/.312/.416
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .261 BA, 0.1 SB
Hours after submitting my column last week, Bowker was called up to eat some time away from Travis Ishikawa (covered in last week's column) and a stagnating Randy Winn. The contending Giants need more offense to support their ever-improving pitching, and Bowker was ripping up the minors to the tune of .347/.448/.614. Bowker started strong in the majors in 2008, then plummeted from a .766 first-half OPS to a .559 in the second. He struggled against LHP (.323 OPS in 2008), a trend that's continued in the minors this year, at least comparatively (.826 OPS vs. LHP, 1.167 vs. RHP). The Giants have said he'll play every day, but that's hard to imagine if those platoon splits continue, and True Talent's pessimistic line predicts Bowker won't be any better than either Ishikawa (755 TT OPS) or Winn (745 TT OPS). Even as a platoon player, it's hard to see how he'd share time with the lefty Ishikawa or the switch-hitting Winn (who has also struggled against LHP this year). He'll get the chance to prove himself, and offers power potential, but I'd hold off in all formats until his position in the lineup becomes clearer and he shows some stability. Right now, his projected production is nearly identical to Francoeur's, making him also suitable for 15-plus team NL-only or 20-plus team mixed leagues.

Pedro Martinez | Philadelphia | SP
YTD: N/A
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The Phillies finally found another starter, and it's a future Hall-of-Famer. Whether or not the 38-year-old Pedro pitches like the Pedro of old—by which we'd take even 2005, when he won 15 games with a 2.82 ERA and a MLB-leading 0.95 WHIP—is another question. He looked very good in the WBC, with two scoreless outings for the Dominican Republic, with six Ks, no walks, and just one hit in six IP. Both of the outings were against the Netherlands squad, the Cinderella team that advanced to the second round despite the third-worst WBC OPS of .636. Several teams passed on Pedro, but the Phils liked him enough, which could be a measure of their desperation; if you're also contemplating rostering him, it might also indicate yours. He'll start the season on the disabled list with a shoulder strain, which makes him a great grab if you've got a vacant DL slot, but he's certainly a dice-roll. Assuming he's truly healthy—the team expects him to be ready in 2-3 weeks, after minor-league work—there's no reason why he can't achieve at least league-average form, with a good number of strikeouts and a few wins with an improving Phillies offense behind him. NL-only leagues of at least 10 teams should definitely watch him, if not pick him up, and mixed leagues deeper than 14 teams should do the same.

Milton Bradley | Chicago | OF
YTD: .243/.379/.381
True Talent: .280/.390/.479
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .281 BA, 0.2 SB
Owners are starting to give up on the 5,000-piece puzzle that is Milton Bradley. An early round draftee in most leagues, he started 2009 by producing like a waiver-wire contributor, where he resides right now in some leagues. But he's hitting .250/.500/.393 this month, with a 2.2 BB/K ratio that shows his batting eye and patience are intact. His career OPS in July is .924, with a .512 SLG, his best monthly numbers in those categories by far. He's suffered from a .288 BABIP this year, but his career BABIP is .321; he hasn't had a BABIP below .300 since 2002. Whatever you might think about Bradley—and he's bound to miss some time due to mental and physical problems—he's not a .760 OBP hitter, another number he hasn't hit since 2002. Wrigley is a better place to hit in warmer weather, and Bradley's bound to have a good month, if not a better second half. If you've got a spot, stash him; if you own him, wait if you can; if you need an OF, watch him. He's coming around.

Jonathan Sanchez | San Francisco | SP
YTD: 9.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.69 ERA
True Talent: 8.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.43 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 12.0 IP, 0.7 Wins, 12 K, 4.51 ERA
If you didn't know Sanchez before last week, you know who he is now. His ERA and overall stats made him one of the less-likely pitchers to ever throw a no-no, but his True Talent ratios are certainly roster-worthy. While it would be foolhardy to expect a repeat of his no-hitter, and his value is definitely inflated, Sanchez may very well have turned a corner. He hasn't suddenly become an ace, but he has definitely cemented the Giants' rotation spot he'd lost before, and he'll deliver about a K per inning and a smattering of wins. If you're a NL-only owner in a 10-team league, he may not be there anymore, but grab him if he is, while mixed leagues 14 teams or deeper can definitely use him in their rotation, too.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, July 16, 2009

For those who still don’t believe FIP is bad for fantasy analysis…

Our friend Brian Joura of RotoGraphs posted an article today citing my own article about the problems with FIP from earlier in the year. My assertion from then, which I still stand by completely:

While the original, underlying premise for FIP is sound, and while it’s absolutely better to use than simple ERA, and while there are certainly uses for FIP in some circumstances, for 99 percent of fantasy purposes, I ignore FIP completely and absolutely.

I noticed a few comments to Brian's article that didn't seem to completely buy my explanation, so I thought I'd run some quick numbers to help provide further evidence that a stat like LIPS or xFIP is better than FIP.

HR/FB instability

By definition, the only substantial difference between FIP and xFIP is that xFIP adjusts each stat line to assume a league average HR/FB, so this crude study will focus entirely on HR/FB.

I looked at all pitchers with at least 12 games started in adjacent seasons from 2004 to 2008. Over this period, we find 63 pitcher seasons where a pitcher's HR/FB strays at least four percent from league average* in Year 1. In Year 2, just 5 of those 63 pitchers (7.9%) failed to regress in the direction of league average. That's a very small number, especially when you consider that Chien-Ming Wang (who may be one of the rare exceptions I mentioned) and Brett Myers (who almost certainly is one of those rare exceptions) accounted for 2 of those 5 seasons. Exclude them, and the percentage becomes 4.8%.

This is a very crude study, but hopefully it reestablishes my point. HR/FB is unstable and because FIP makes no alterations, it will be misleading and less accurate than other indicators. David Gassko did some much more thorough work on HR/FB in the THT Annual 2007 (which can be read for free here), but the short version is that for pitchers with 350+ TBF, the previous season's HR/FB explains just 3% of the variance of the following season's HR/FB.

*I used a rough estimation of league average, using the aggregate league average for all five years. This is the lazy way to do it but won't change my point.

Anecdotal evidence and precision

One comment from Brian's article that I thought would be useful to answer for everyone:

"Well…FIP definitely helped predict Ricky Nolasco’s turnaround. Not sure what his xFIP was…."

We must remember that FIP is not so utterly useless that it will be incorrect in every scenario. In scenarios where the pitcher has a lucky or unlucky BABIP or LOB% (Nolasco's BABIP was over .400 at one point), FIP will be able to predict the general direction the pitcher's ERA should move as long as the HR/FB isn't too far away from league average.

While we'll know that Nolasco isn't a 6.00 ERA pitcher, it is important to make a distinction over whether his ERA should be 4.50 or 4.00 or 3.50. Even the difference between a 4.25 and 4.00 ERA is the difference between 'solid starter' and 'waiver wire material' in many leagues. FIP is ill-equipped to make this distinction.

We can't allow anecdotal evidence to rule our decision making. While FIP may have worked in Nolasco's case given a very rough objective, the numbers tell us that a stat like xFIP or LIPS will be more accurate, for more pitchers.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:11pm

The Latest Batch of Prospect Breakdowns

Average year and prime year projections for multiple prospects are coming next week. For now, enjoy this latest batch of prospect breakdowns as well as the latest incarnation of THT's Top 100 Prospect List.

Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas / MLB / 8/26/88 / ETA: 2009 / High: #33 / Low: #44 / This Week: +10
2009 Thoughts:
Andrus' adjustment to the majors has gone better than expected, and Texas couldn't be more pleased. One of the bright, up and coming shortstops in the game.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
7/15/09 - Coming into the year, I wasn't sure how well Andrus' bat would play in the majors at such a young age, but the young man has held his own. His base stealing ability has taken center stage earlier than expected as well. There doesn't seem to be much pop in his bat, but Arlington Park will certainly aid his home run production moving forward. With just a couple years of big league experience, Texas could have a throwback, All-Star caliber shortstop on their hands.

Brett Wallace / 3B / St. Louis / Triple-A / 8/26/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #38 / Low: #49 / This Week: +10
2009 Thoughts:
Wallace's bat appears major league ready, and St. Louis might just give the young man the privilege of a September call-up.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
7/15/09 - Make no mistake, Brett Wallace will be a strong, productive major league hitter; but I wonder about just how much upside he possesses. Either way, Wallace is one of the surest bets in the minors.

Mat Latos / SP / San Diego / Double-A / 12/9/87 / ETA: 2010 / High: #40 / Low: UR / This Week: +24
2009 Thoughts:
Latos, with his immense potential, has torn through his first, true full year of professional action. His dominant 2009 has him knocking on the Padre's door.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
7/15/09 - Latos has shown ace qualities for a few years now. His large frame supports his plus stuff perfectly. San Diego has babied him a bit, but they have released the reigns this year; so much in fact that it has been reported that Latos will join the big league Padres upon their return from the All-Star break. The promotion seems a bit silly to me, as I don't understand the reasoning behind starting his arbitration clock in order to help a last place team. But I am excited for Latos and his potential for dominance in his new stomping grounds, Petco Park.

Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee / Triple-A / 12/16/86 / ETA: 2010 / High: #41 / Low: #65 / This Week: +17
2009 Thoughts:
Milwaukee may have no choice but to call up slick fielding Alcides Escobar, that is if they want to stay in the NL Central race. Escobar's game may not be all that fantasy relevant initially, but the Brew Crew needs the defensive jolt.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
7/15/09 - No matter how much people may doubt his bat, Escobar has worked hard to refine his swing, and he will continue to get better. His fantasy potential lies in his future batting average, run scoring, and stolen bases, as power is not a big part of his game. That leaves his real world value, complete with a Gold Glove-caliber glove, much higher than his fantasy value. But his impressive plate adjustments over the last couple of years has me thinking Escobar's offensive future is a strong one.

Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh / MLB / 10/10/86 / ETA: 2009 / High: #42 / Low: #60 / This Week: -2
2009 Thoughts:
Pittsburgh was able to trade away Nate McLouth largely in part because they felt McCutchen was ready to take over in center field. McCutchen has rewarded the Pirates' confidence with a great first month and a half of play. He is a good #3 outfielder for 2009.
Average Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Prime Year Projection:
Coming soon.
Notes:
7/15/09 - I sometimes forget that McCutchen is still just 22 years old, as he has been on the prospect radar screen for a long time. Since arriving in Pittsburgh on June 5, McCutchen has taken over as the team's lead-off hitter and has had nothing but success. Expect him to grow in his permanent role as Pittsburgh's primary playmaker. His long-term fantasy value ultimately lies in his stolen base and power production, which are both up in the air. But all of the tools that made him a first round pick in 2005 are still there.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:16am

Fall-down guys

I'm playing the part of a doom-monger, an inveterate pessimist and I'm in a bad mood. Instead of telling you which players I think will become the hit at your party, I'd rather tell you which ones are likely to poop in your swimming pool. Here are some frontline players that I believe are due for a second half fall.

C - Joe Mauer
This one's pretty easy and so obvious that I was tempted to go with someone like Mike Napoli instead. Mauer's BABIP, at .383, is going to fall, though perhaps not too far. Historically, Mauer's had fairly high BABIPs. Mauer hits a ton of ground balls though and our stats have him at zero (0!) infield flies. Instead he has a Chris Davis-like home run per flyball rate that is about three times his normal rate. Unsurprisingly, most of his rates are starting to revert back to their expected levels.

1B - Adrian Gonzalez
Gonzalez's numbers could go either way. So far, he's shown a lot more patience at the plate, with a BB/K ratio double it's normal level. His BABIP is way below his historical level, so his batting average should go up in the second half. However, his power numbers are way above normal levels and have been lately trending downwards. Considering the rest of the San Diego lineup, teams are pitching around him (which helps explain his better patience numbers). If you're looking for walks or batting average, AG's probably a good bet. But don't expect the same production in the counting stats.(Special Mention: Joey Votto)

2B - Ben Zobrist and Aaron Hill
Second basemen aren't really playing way over their collective heads this year. Zobrist and Hill are two breakout players (though Hill's been highly touted for a while), which means that they don't have much of a track record to go on. Zobrist has delievered on all counting stats so far, but with a HR/F rate of 23 percent, I would bet that his power numbers in the second half are going to be inferior to his first half numbers. Hill's numbers are even better, in the sense that his BABIP seems completely sustainable and his linedrive, IF/F and groundball rates all seem normal. Still, the big question is the HR/F. At 13 percent, it isn't at Mauer-ian or Zobrist-ian levels, but it is way above his historical levels. One way to crosscheck his HR/F rate is to look at his home runs versus his doubles. Hill hasn't hit more extra-base hits per at-bat. Instead, many of Hill's home runs are Fliners that in the past may have stayed in the park for doubles. This is probably a good thing, but compared to his peers (Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler and Zobrist), the HR/2B rate looks a bit high.

SS - Jason Bartlett
Bartlett's BABIP and HR/F rates are .392 and 9.5 percent, respectively. His line drive rate is 27 percent. None of these is going to stay so high. When his batting average drops, so will his stolen base rates, since he doesn't walk much.

3B - Brandon Inge
Inge has been fantasy gold for those that picked him and played him at catcher. His extra-base ratios are even more skewed than Hill's—Inge has gone from a two-to-one ratio of doubles to home runs to a one-to-two. He's not playing catcher anymore, sure, but he's not playing the role of Ryan Howard either. (Special Mention: David Wright: will his power numbers go back up or will his BABIP fall?)

OF - Carlos Beltran and Michael Bourn
Sure, Beltran's injured, but what about when he returns? His power numbers are below their historical rates, but I'm inclined to believe that the downturn is real and due in part to the Citi Field effect (his ISO shows a tell-tale home-road split). Meanwhile, his BABIP is way above his trend, even if we want to factor in a Citi Field effect here too. There's not much data on Bourn, but he seems to be getting more hits than he deserves given his batting eye (low BB/K) and high line drive rate. If he can't get on base, he can't steal.

SP - Kevin Millwood and Matt Cain
Millwood is walk rates are up but his BABIP is down. The latter should revert to expected levels while the former may not. Mix in the Arlington stadium in the summer and, despite the fact that he's pitching for a new contract, Millwood's bound for trouble in the second half. Cain's a pitcher who has always defied usual conventions on hit rates. His strikeout rate is trending down, but he seems to be pitching deeper into games. That may be helping his other numbers, though I'm not sure why that should be the case. Nevertheless, the troubling number is his strand rate, which at 86.5 percent is very high.

RP - Ryan Franklin
Franklin's ERA is 0.79 but his FIP is 3.02 and his xFIP is 3.62. As disturbing is his strand rate and BABIP, which are a ridiculous 99.2 percent and .206, respectively.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:04am

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

The high variability second half team

What will the second half hold for everyone's favorite prospect? (Icon/SMI)

While it would be nice if we were all sitting with a comfortable lead in first place right now, I'm sure many readers don't find themselves in that position in their fantasy leagues. If you're in the middle of the pack, it might be time to embrace some risk. Making fair value trades likely won't propel you the necessary distance in the standings, but trading for a player with high variability in his rest-of-season projection would provide big dividends if he hits the high end of the projection.

Today, I'll be going position-by-position and picking out some players who could "boom or bust" in the second half of 2009. I'll talk about each and then give my opinion on which way they'll end up going.

Catcher: Matt Wieters

Coming into 2009, Wieters was the can't-miss prospect of the century. That was until he was recalled and hit .259 with just three HRs, 10 RBI, and 10 runs in 108 at-bats. Still, this is the same guy PECOTA projected to have a .311/.395/.546 batting line (however ridiculous that may have been) and who all projection systems agreed would be at least a top 10 catcher, if not top five.

If there's something the projection systems missed on Wieters, his owners could be in for a rough second half. Given the way he has severely undershot his expectations, however, he could come pretty cheap in redraft leagues, and there is monster potential here (and his MLB peripherals aren't even that bad).

Which way am I leaning?: Very Positive

1B: John Bowker

Probably a name some of you are unfamiliar with, Bowker was just recalled by the Giants this week. He didn't impress many people when he got a shot in the bigs last year, but his minor league numbers are good and the Giants have said they'll play him every day for the forseeable future. If he finds a way to hit, he'll stick with the team and provide nice value to his owners. If he can't, he could be back at Triple-A within a couple weeks.

If he does hit, the upside looks like a dozen or so homers to match a handful of steals and a .270 batting average. The Giants have hit him fifth, sixth, and seventh so far, and if he finds a way to stick in the No. 5 slot he could provide decent RBI and runs as well.

Which way am I leaning?: Positive (in the interest of full disclosure, I did just purchase him in LABR NL).

2B: Kelly Johnson

Uggh. Coming into the season, Johnson looked like a pretty safe bet for a .280 average with double-digit steals and homers and the upside to pop as many as 20. That hasn't panned out, and before he was placed on the DL before the All-Star Break, manager Bobby Cox announced that Martin Prado would receive the majority of the playing time at second base.

The positives here are that he has improved his contact rate and fly ball rate, and a potentially unlucky BABIP looks like the main culprit for his poor first half. If we plug in his simple xBABIP of .313, his batting average would be at .275 right now. I also hold some hope for his power, so the real concern now is the playing time. Unfortunately, Prado doesn't look too much like a fluke, but if Johnson starts hitting, I have a hard time seeing him riding the bench the rest of the way, especially if the power comes back.

Which way am I leaning?: Somewhat positive

3B: Garrett Atkins

Atkins is probably the biggest name in baseball right now with boom or bust prospects for the second half. If he stays with the Rockies and hits like he did in the first half, he could be benched outright for Ian Stewart. If he hits like he did over the past couple weeks, he could justify his draft position and provide monster value to those buying low, whether he stays with the Rockies or is traded elsewhere.

There are both some good signs (improved contact rate, unlucky BABIP) and some bad signs (line drive rate well below established levels, not hitting his home runs as far as previous years), so it's tough to say with any certainty what will happen. Let's say I'm cautiously optimistic about Atkins. It isn't often we see a 29-year-old with a good track record fall off a cliff like Atkins has.

Which way am I leaning?: Somewhat positive

SS: Stephen Drew

I wasn't a big Drew supporter coming into the year, and he hasn't been particularly good thus far. His line drive rate regressed and his BABIP followed suit, his contact rate has fallen a bit, and his power regressed to 2007 levels. His upside for the rest of the season looks like his 2008 rates (and at some point the upside may be well above that), but I think, over the next couple months, it's more likely we see him cruise along at the rate he went in the first half.

Which way am I leaning?: Negative

OF: Chris Young

We've known he can't hit for average, but .196? Eww. And worse, his power has evaporated. He was drafted high for a reason, though, and it looks like there's some bad luck at play. His .250 BABIP compares favorably to a .283 simple xBABIP, and he's still hitting the ball as far as he was last year, so the power could spike as well. With the speed still there, we could see Young post a .235-.240 average, 12 homers, and 10-15 steals the rest of the way. If that looks good to you, Young could be a worthwhile pickup.

Which way am I leaning?: Somewhat positive

OF: Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes

A couple of guys with high expectations who are now rotting in the minor leagues. With Pittsburgh out of contention (what else is new?) and unstable corner outfield spots, I think it's quite probable that Milledge gets recalled before the end of the month and finds some regular playing time. Very good speed, pretty good power, decent enough batting average is better than you'll find on most waiver wires. Of course, he could also struggle or pull some stunt and find himself back at Triple-A. Still, I think the time to move on him is now.

Dukes will need to do more to prove himself, especially with such a crowded Nationals outfield now that Nyjer Morgan is on board. He's hitting pretty well in Triple-A thus far, but if he isn't recalled until mid-August there might not be much time for him to help fantasy owners (and that's assuming some of his early 2009 struggles were luck-related). There is talk of a trade, which could really jumpstart his value if one were to go down. He's got great power and speed potential, but going 2-for-9 in steals with a HR/FB that was half of what it was in 2008 isn't exactly a good sign.

Which way am I leaning?: Positive on Milledge, somewhat negative on Dukes

OF: A few more

Lots of these high-variability types in the outfield, so here are some quick thoughts on a few more:

Delmon Young: I wasn't a fan coming into the year, hasn't performed very well, and the Minnesota outfield is still crowded. Very negative

Carlos Gomez: SB potential is still there, but the power hasn't developed as I was hoping, the BABIP doesn't look very unlucky, and the outfield is crowded. Somewhat negative

Ryan Spilborghs: Love his skills, but he's a fifth outfielder in Colorado without much hope for regular playing time unless he's traded. Unfortunately, the team doesn't seem to want to do that, and not all of the teams interested would use him as a regular anyway. Poor Spilly. Negative

SP: Francisco Liriano and David Price

Two pitchers I'm sure many fantasy owners are unsure what to make of. We've seen Liriano's monster potential in 2006, but he's been unimpressive since his return from Tommy John surgery, culminating in a first-half ERA of 5.47. While we may never see the old Liriano, I am somewhat bullish on him. Despite a BB/9 over 4.0, his LIPS ERA is a respectable 4.26, and his numbers have been quite good over his last nine starts: 9.3 K/9, 3.7 BB/9. Of course, that means the downside could be his first nine starts: 7.3 K/9, 4.6 BB/9.

Price is a player I've never seen all the hype about. I suppose it comes from scouts who see the long-term potential and the possibility of him harnessing that potential at any time, which I won't argue with, but on a single-year basis he just wasn't deserving of such a high draft position. His starts have either been boom or bust this year (either 1 ER or 5+ ER), and some are pointing to those flashes of brilliance and his 9.6 K/9 as reason for optimism. Me? I point to his 6.3 BB/9, 35 percent ground ball rate, and unimpressive minor league track record and call him a terrible play for the rest of 2009.

Which way am I leaning?: Positive on Liriano, very negative on Price.

RP: Chad Qualls and Huston Street

High-skill, trade candidate closers. If traded, they'd lose most of their value. If not, they keep it all and could come cheaply for the time being from a nervous owner. We're hearing that the D'Backs are getting offers on Qualls that could be too good to pass up, while it's been relatively quite on the Street front (no pun intended).

Which way am I leaning?: Somewhat positive on Street, somewhat negative on Qualls.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:44am

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

An all star team of mostly-unowned players

As Derek announced yesterday, this is All-Star week at THT Fantasy. Yesterday, Troy listed his “bargain” players for the second half. Today, I’m focusing on batters I believe have the potential to seemingly come out of nowhere to become fantasy studs in the second half.

I’m taking a high-risk approach here. These players might hit it big. They also could produce close to zero value. I have two basic criteria:

1) Identify batters who are owned in less than 25 percent of leagues currently.
2) Identify batters who have the potential to be owned in more than 75 percent of leagues by the end of the season.

So here we go:

Catcher: Chris Snyder
Since 2007, among catchers with at least 600 at-bats, only three catchers in baseball have better HR-to-AB ratios than Chris Snyder. The three catchers? Brian McCann, Geovany Soto, and Mike Napoli. Snyder always has had the sneaky ability to put up good power numbers, and he combines this skill with improving plate discipline. His current average isn’t great, but peripherals show he’s gotten a little unlucky on balls hit into play. Snyder’s biggest block to great value is teammate Miguel Montero, who also deserves consideration as a catcher who could see a giant leap in value with more playing time. Others we’d watch for sneaky value include David Ross in Atlanta, Ramon Castro in Chicago, and Jeff Clement in Seattle.

1B: Justin Smoak
Last week, Baseball America rated Justin Smoak the fourth-best prospect in baseball. What’s astounding about this is Smoak’s position—first base. Typically, scouting services like BA take defensive value into account and, as a result, rarely give prospects who play the defensively limited position of first base much thrift. For example, when Joey Votto came into the majors, he never made it past No. 44 despite the big bat. Smoak’s killer bat projects to do damage whenever he gets a chance in the majors, and thanks to the recent demotion of Chris Davis, and a surprisingly competitive Rangers ballclub, that opportunity could come quite soon. One of the best hitting prospects in baseball in Texas? Sign us up.

2B: Eric Young
At the Futures Game this past weekend, Eric Young astonished onlookers by hitting a home run. Young is not expected to provide much power whenever Colorado calls him up, but he will provide speed. A ton of it. In fact, it’s not an exaggeration to say that Young may have a season in the majors where he puts up 100 stolen bases. In the past three and a half seasons in the minors, Young has swiped an astonishing 254 bags. What separates Young from most speedsters his age is very good plate recognition. Young knows the value of putting the ball in play and taking walks. The semi-reappearance of Clint Barmes temporarily blocks Young’s ascension in Colorado, but everyone expects Young to arrive quite soon. He’ll be the hottest commodity on the waiver wire when that happens.

SS: Ty Wigginton
Wigginton doesn’t qualify at shortstop. Yet. But he’s gotten seven games at the position and Orioles manager Dave Trembley has been getting more comfortable with sticking Ty at shortstop in recent weeks. Should Wigginton land a job as the everyday Orioles shortstop, he’d be a hot commodity in fantasy leagues. After all, how many shortstops have averaged 23 home runs a year like Wigginton has in the past three years? Just Hanley Ramirez.

3B: Troy Glaus
OK, you’ve heard of Troy Glaus. Still, the Cardinals 3B is owned in less than 15 percent of leagues and is reportedly set to begin a rehab stint. Recall that only a year ago, Glaus hit 28 home runs and 99 RBI. He’s coming off a shoulder injury so we can’t finger certain second half breakout value but if we’re talking high upside, you can’t beat a player who has routinely knocked the stuffing out of the ball while maintaining a very good approach at the plate. We were also tempted to give this slot to Chris Shelton, recently called up in Seattle, because hey, you never know.

OF: David Murphy
The summer weather at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington is a hospitable environment for fantasy value. Especially for a 27-year-old outfielder who has flashed decent power and speed since arriving there last year. The Rangers outfield is always a tad crowded, so we can’t guarantee Murphy’s playing time. But as a left-handed bat who is hitting .300 against right-handed pitching this season, we see opportunity for Murphy to potentially shine. Since May 1, Murphy also leads the Rangers ballclub in OPS and contributed a handful of steals to boot.

OF: Nate Schierholz
One recent development that many fantasy pundits have seemingly overlooked has been Nate Schierholz winning Fred Lewis’ former job in the San Francisco outfield. Where has the buzz gone on this potential 20-15-.300 player who was touted as being a sleeper coming into the season? Currently, Schierholz is hitting a very respectable .288 with three home runs and two steals in 160 at-bats. Schierholz is hitting right in the middle of the lineup and, at 25 years old, has the potential to grow.

OF: Jonny Gomes
Jay Bruce was knocked out of action this past weekend for up to two months with a fractured wrist. This news opens the door for someone in Cincinnati’s outfield. Who? Right now, the smart money seems to be on Chris Dickerson, but we’ve always had a small thing for his teammate Gomes, who never got the chance he deserved in Tampa. Look at Gomes’ career numbers and you’ll see a batter who would be projected to hit 30 HR if given 500 at-bats. Gomes also takes his share of walks. Call him a cross between Adam Dunn and Russell Branyon, and if given some playing time in Cincy, he could put up eye-popping value in a short time frame.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:18am

Bargains for the second half

Following Troy's format from yesterday, today I am going to name a player from each position I feel will play the best relative to his first-half performance. Note that this list will not consist of which players will play the best in the second half, but rather those who will the furthest outperform their first-half performance.

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach somewhat lived up to his home run-hitting reputation in the first half, belting a decent seven home runs with a more impressive 20 percent HR/FB rate. No one expects him to be a .300 hitter, but the miserable .194 batting average he currently owns is unexpected too. His plate discipline stats have remained in line with last year's; the main thing that changed has been a .256 BABIP, well below his career average of .350. As long as he keeps getting a decent share of the playing time—which he should—then a second half of a .260 batting average and about 10 home runs is a very plausible forecast. If you are looking for help at catcher, Shoppach is a good guy to take a chance on.

First base: David Ortiz

Through the first two months of the season, Big Papi was one of the most disappointing players in the majors. He had one home run to his name and was batting near .200. He was striking out at an abnormally high rate and fastballs were routinely being blown by him. Then in June he started catching up to those fastballs and hit seven home runs in the month and so far in July he has added four more. In the second half, he should play more like the Ortiz of the last two months than the one who struggled throughout the first two months. A second half consisting of a respectable batting average in the high .260s to low .270s with around 15 home runs and plenty of RBI opportunities seems reasonable.

Second base: Howie Kendrick

Howie Kendrick has not yet become the batting title champion that his name was once synonymous with, but he is still an accomplished major league ballplayer. In both 2007 and 2008 he played about half a season in the majors and both times he finished with batting averages above .300 and decent stolen base numbers. It came as a surprise, then, that Kendrick would bat so poorly to start 2009 and ended up being demoted to Triple-A with a batting line of .231/.281/.355. In Triple-A something changed—be it luck, mechanics, or confidence—and he ended up batting .346 in 78 at-bats. Now back in the majors, I expect Kendrick to have a solid second half, something around a .290 average, a handful of home runs, and about 10 steals. From a second baseman, I'll take those numbers.

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy

Hardy struggled mightily in the first half, finishing with a .232/.301/.379 slash line. Part of it was bad luck; his .260 BABIP is lower than expected, but I also believe part of it was mental and/or physical. With some rest (he recently hurt his shoulder, nothing serious though) and better fortune in the second half, Hardy has a good shot to put up similar numbers to last year's second half: a batting average in the high .270s with 10-12 homers. He is currently playing for mostly disgruntled owners so you may be able to acquire him for less than you would normally pay for that type of production.

Third base: Edwin Encarnacion

Encarnacion, through April, was batting .127 with a slugging percentage not much higher at .190. To put him out of his misery, he fractured his wrist near the end of the month and recently returned in the beginning of July. Since returning Encarnacion has played decently, showing some consistency with a six-game hitting streak that was recently snapped. My expectations are not very high—a .260 batting average and around eight home runs is all—but if you start him against only righties, he should bat closer to .290 off them. For someone who is probably available in a number of leagues, he could offer good value in the second half.

Seth Smith is a player you should start seeing more and more of at the plate. (Icon/SMI)

Outfield: Seth Smith and Chris Dickerson

Unlike the other players on this list, Seth Smith did not play poorly in the first half. In fact, judging by wOBA he was one of the top 20 hitters in all of major league baseball. Regardless, Smith is barely owned in any leagues because he is caught up in the Rockies outfield logjam and as a result has stepped to the plate a mere 181 times in 2009. In the second half I expect Smith to receive much more playing time because his great play warrants it, and also because either Smith himself or Brad Hawpe is likely to be traded before the deadline, freeing up at-bats. Smith can do it all—hit for average, power, and swipe a few bases—so even in shallow leagues I would consider owning him as I do in three of my four leagues this year.

In the first half of 2009, Chris Dickerson struggled to be effective at the plate and also to find playing time. After a rough April, he heated up in May and then exploded in June, batting .333 with four steals in the month. With his performance Dickerson earned himself more playing time but now with the news of Jay Bruce 's injury, Dickerson's playing time became that much more secure. Expect Dickerson to play at a similar level to his first half, a .280-.290 batting average with mild power and close to ten steals. With his on base skills, he could push fifteen steals and be a surprisingly valuable player.

Starting pitcher: David Price

This 2007 1st overall pick has not been particularly impressive so far in 2009 with a 1.64 WHIP and 4.70 ERA. His struggles are not from giving up too many hits; he has allowed only 41 hits in his 44 innings. The problem has been avoiding ball four as he has given up 31 free passes, good for a BB/9 rate above 6.00. When he limits his walks he gives flashes of his brilliance, which he displayed in his last start in which he limited the Blue Jays to one run in six innings, walking just one and striking out seven. Price has stated he is determined to limit his walks in the second half and because of his potential, the price may be right to see what it will take to get him.

Relief pitcher: Phil Hughes

Right now the future-starter Hughes is acting as a reliever, and doing a very good job at it. As I discussed in my last article, he has a good situation going as the Yankees set-up man, earning plenty of holds by allowing runs in only one of his 13 appearances. His real value, however, will come as a starter and there remains the possibility he transitions to the rotation later in the season. Because of that possibility, I would prefer to own Hughes over many middle relievers, except the ones with good chances to become closers.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:44am

Monday, July 13, 2009

Pedro Martinez taking physical in Philly

Ken Rosenthal is reporting at FOX Sports that Pedro Martinez will be taking a physical tomorrow and could sign with the Phillies as early as Wednesday. He would need about 3 weeks to get ready and start for the Phillies and is not expected to interfere in any Halladay dealings.

Does Martinez have anything left in the tank though?

His 2008 was a shadow of himself and his K/BB in 109 innings stood at only 1.98, which was the lowest he has ever had. His xFIP of 4.61 was better than his ERA at 5.78, but still not the Pedro of old.

His WBC showing was quite good going 6 innings in 2 games with 6 strikeouts and no walks, but the sample size is much to small to get any sign of what to expect. His changeup was still strong in 2008 with a value of 2.36 per 100 pitches, but will that be enough without the dominant fastball?

I'm gonna say pass for now in most leagues since his home park isn't going to help him, but keep a close eye on him. At worst he's probably league average with a 4+ ERA, but with his ability to control walks he could be a solid pickup in deeper leagues.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 12:34pm

All-Star Week at THT Fantasy

With All-Star Week upon us, we thought we'd shake things up a little bit here at THT Fantasy. This week, we've asked each of our writers to discuss one player at each position that they feel will be a good second half bargain relative to their play in the first half. Your opinions and comments on the selections of our writers will of course be welcome, and feel free to give us your own second-half sleepers. Today, you'll find Troy Patterson's list with the rest of the THTF team following throughout the week.

I'd also like to take this time to thank all of you for your support through the first half of the season, and I wish you the best of luck in your fantasy leagues as the season begins to wind down. If you ever have any questions, concerns, or ideas, please feel free to send me an e-mail.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:00am

Do hitters decline after the Home Run Derby?

After hoisting the hardware at last year's HR Derby, Justin Morneau underperformed in the second half. Is he the exception or the rule? (Icon/SMI)

For years now, we've heard how players who participate in the Home Run Derby screw up their swing or tire more easily in the second half of the year. It's gotten to the point where players are declining invitations to the Home Run Derby in droves. Major League Baseball seemed to have a particularly tough time filling out the American League side this year. To my knowledge, however, no one has actually tested this theory. Today, I'd like to do just that.

Parameters

What I've done is compare second half performance with preseason Marcel projections for every Home Run Derby participant since 2001 (excluding Evan Longoria in 2008, whose Marcel projection would have been league average as a rookie). I've also adjusted the second half numbers to account for the fact that the league as a whole hits home runs at a slightly higher rate after the All-Star Break.

You may be wondering why I'm using projections instead of comparing the first half to the second half. This is because, had I done this, I'd be inviting a whole deal of bias into the equation, the biggest being selection bias.

If a player overperforms his true talent level in the first half, he stands a better chance of being selected to the Derby. Because he overperformed, though, he's bound to play worse in the second half. A great example of this is Alex Rios in 2007 (Marcels AB/HR: 38; first half AB/HR: 21; second half AB/HR: 42). While it may have looked like he declined, he actually just regressed back to his true talent level.

To help solve this problem, I'm using projections to estimate true talent level and then seeing if the player underperforms this level in the second half. Ideally, I'd be using mid-season projections to account for the undoubtedly good first halves of these players, but this isn't readily available and would take a long time to calculate.

Results

Here are the aggregate results for every year since 2001 (the first year Tom Tango published Marcel projections) as well as the combined results. Remember that for AB/HR, lower is better (it tells us the average number of at-bats a hitter takes in-between home runs).

+---------+---------------+----------+
| Year    | Marcels AB/HR | 2H AB/HR |
+---------+---------------+----------+
| 2008    |          20.7 |     25.5 |
| 2007    |          18.9 |     17.2 |
| 2006    |          19.7 |     15.2 |
| 2005    |          19.9 |     17.7 |
| 2004    |          15.4 |     16.0 |
| 2003    |          18.8 |     16.7 |
| 2002    |          15.2 |     15.6 |
| 2001    |          15.7 |     11.0 |
+---------+---------------+----------+
| Overall |          17.7 |     16.3 |
+---------+---------------+----------+

As you can see, the Home Run Derby hitters seemed to outperform their preseason Marcels every year except 2008, 2004, and 2002 (though the latter two only showed small differences). Despite conventional wisdom, it doesn't look like derby participants play any worse in the second half of the season (on the whole). If you're looking for the results in terms of percentages, 57 percent of derby participants outperform their projections in the second half.

Of course, this shouldn't be a huge surprise since a hitter who is invited to the Derby likely will have improved his preseason projection by the All-Star Break, but even if we accounted for this, it's very doubtful the results would swing so far in the other direction that it would confirm the conventional wisdom.

Another theory might be that players who last longer in the Derby or hit more home runs during it are more likely to decline.

+---------+--------+---------------+----------+
| Round   | Sample | Marcels AB/HR | 2H AB/HR |
+---------+--------+---------------+----------+
| 1st Rnd |     63 |          17.7 |     16.3 |
| Semis   |     32 |          17.3 |     16.3 |
| Finals  |     16 |          18.8 |     17.6 |
| Champ   |      8 |          20.1 |     17.6 |
| 20+ HR  |     14 |          19.2 |     17.7 |
+---------+--------+---------------+----------+

Nope, doesn't seem to be the case. No matter how long a hitter lasts or how many home runs he hits, we still don't see any signs of a second-half decline.

So where has this theory come from?

While the theory doesn't appear to be true, we're still likely to hear about it from the mainstream media over the next few hours and days. Why does the media seem to believe this, though? Here are a few possible reasons:

Last year: 2008 seemed to prove the theory in a big way, so it's fresh in everyone's mind.
The selection bias I mentioned earlier: Those selected likely overperformed in the first half, so second-half regression to the mean is viewed by the uninformed as a decline and not normalization.
Raw totals: Because the 50 percent mark often occurs a couple weeks before the All-Star Break, "first half" totals can look inflated if compared directly to "second half" totals.
Outspoken players: Media is a lot more likely to listen to players than numbers, and when players start blaming the derby for second-half struggles, it's an easy story to run with.
Snowball effect: Once players start talking and complaining, it makes other players less likely to want to participate and draws more attention to the situation, creating a snowball effect.

Study caveats

There are a few caveats to this study.

Use of preseason projections: I mentioned this earlier, and it likely wouldn't have changed the conclusions, but it warrants mentioning again.
Generalizing to all players: This study looks at the participants on the whole. We are dealing with human beings, though, each having their own unique swings and physiologies. It's entirely possible some players are affected by the Derby, even if the overall effect is small.
Derby participants: There might be some additional selection bias in who participants in the Derby. If a player is legitimately affected by the Derby, he is less likely to participate in future years and thus will only be included in the study once.
Steroids: A study like this necessitates using many years since we only have eight sample points per year, but in doing so we look at years when guys like Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa, and Jason Giambi were playing. Can we really say that the effects in these years will be the same as those in 2009? (if we only use 2005-2008, however, we still see a 19.7 Marcel AB/HR to 18.0 second half AB/HR)
Small sample: Because we only see eight hitters participate per year, there's no choice but to try and draw conclusions from a small-ish sample size.

2009 participants

So what does this mean for the participants in tonight's 2009 Home Run Derby?

Joe Mauer
Brandon Inge
Nelson Cruz
Carlos Pena
Albert Pujols
Adrian Gonzalez
Prince Fielder
Ryan Howard

While you likely don't have to worry about any of these guys falling off a cliff in the second half, there is an opportunity to be had for fantasy owners. If the owner of any of these players is worried, you might be able to acquire him at a discount, especially if someone puts on a Josh Hamilton-esque show tonight.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:43am

Clone Wars: Second half bargains

If you need some help on your team, this is a good time to look for players who struggled in the first half, and could come cheap and help in the second half. We'll take a look at each position and what to expect as well as what level of talent to give up.

MLB: JUL 05 Braves at Nationals
5 July 2009: Atlanta Braves' third baseman Chipper Jones in action against the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, DC. The Nationals defeated the Braves 5-3, to take the rubber game of their 3-game weekend series. (Icon/SMI)

Catcher: Chris Iannetta

I was planning to use Geovany Soto for this one until he was injured; he was headed for a much better second half and had started to turn it around already. Iannetta on the other has been limited by injuries this year, and his BABIP is currently 40 points below his career average. His average won't be great, but expect it to be above .250 in the second half. That should also come with solid power, as the ZiPS projection system calls for seven more homers. I could see up to 10 more as his at-bats have been fairly consistent lately. We're talking about a mid-level catcher, so don't go over board with an offer, but a mid-level pitcher or extra closer could get the trade done.

First base: Hank Blalock

Sure the power is there, but a low average and playing time concerns had even dropped his ownership in CBS leagues to 71 percent just a few weeks ago. This is another player with an average dragged down by a BABIP that is 50 points below career levels. He is also now in a full time role after splitting time with the disappointing Chris Davis. Here is a solid chance to add power to your lineup and he should cost you much less than other first basemen. You should be able to get Blalock on the cheap via trade, as he is likely not a team's first choice at the corners.

Second base: Ian Stewart

Here is another surprise power source who was probably a backup on most teams and is currently hurting teams in batting average. I discussed him last week and he won't be a great average guy, but his numbers suggest a .270 hitter with plenty of power and a couple steals. His playing time is currently limited, but a Garrett Atkins trade appears in the works, and would open up a full time spot for Stewart. Again he should be fairly cheap in most leagues based on disappointing average and uncertain amount of playing time.

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins

How bad could things get for Rollins this year? The team who owns him probably paid heavily for him, so I can't expect he would come as cheap as his numbers have shown, but he's still good value if you can get him. His contact numbers all look fine and his BABIP is only .241, and should be on the rise. The 30-home run power is gone, but he's still got some pop and can steal at least another 20 bases this year if he gets on base more. I've seen Rollins traded for Nate McLouth, which seems fair if you have the depth in the outfield.

Third base: Chipper Jones

Can't say what is up with Chipper this year, but his ISO is down to its lowest level since 1997. Perhaps the injuries are piling up, or he has just had a poor start. This one is based on more of a feel that any stats, but his doubles total are still on pace with last year's. Most owners probably expected him to miss a few games, so teams that drafted him probably had a backup plan at third base. This might make him more available, but he still has name value and I wouldn't overpay.

Outfield - Nick Markakis and Denard Span

Nick Markakis has consistently produced over the past two years, but is off his normal pace this year, which could be frustrating his current owner. With no reason to think he is injured, I can see him returning his normal numbers of around 10 homers, 5 steals and .300 average over the second half of the season.

Denard Span might be overlooked this season thanks to a short DL stint, but he has the ability to post a Shane Victorino-like season if he is given enough at-bats. His plate discipline is better than Victorino's, and he gets on base extremely well. This is great for accumulating runs and steal opportunities. He is only owned in 70 percent of CBS leagues so he might even be available for free; if not, he could probably be had for a back of the rotation pitcher.

Starting pitcher: Ricky Nolasco

Pitchers can be prone to extremely good or bad luck, but Nolasco has been unbelievably unlucky, with an ERA almost two runs higher than his xFIP. He had been getting better results recently, but got lit up the other night for seven runs in six innings. He still had eight strikeouts to one walk, so I still expect his numbers to improve in the second half. His K/BB still stands at 4.29, which is eighth in the majors. Expect a top 20—if not top 10—second half performance. Given his season to date, he could come for very cheap via trade; I would offer a third outfielder or perhaps a spare closer.

Closer: J.P. Howell

You have to love it when you can start a closer and expect him to contribute more than just saves. Howell had OK rates as a starter, but had bad results. Since becoming a closer, his K/BB has settled around three and his K/9 is up to almost 11. This is the kind of stuff you want out of a closer, but unfortunately he is still in a closer by committee situation in Tampa Bay. This could work to your advantage, as he could come quite cheap. Even if he moves to a setup role he is going to be a good source of strikeouts, ERA and WHIP. I saw him traded for Brad Penny the other day and that seems like a good starting point.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 12:04am

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Jay Bruce breaks wrist

Jay Bruce was removed in the first inning tonight against the New York Mets after attempting to catch a David Wright blooper, but the ball popped out as his wrist bent back very awkwardly. These injuries are always concerning and have been known to be power sapping (think Derrek Lee). According to Cincinnati.com Bruce is flying back to Cincinnati for follow up tests and MRI. There are several possibilities, but expecting him back before Late August would be extremely optimistic. Any team with Jay Bruce in the outfield will need to find a replacement and likely for a large portion of the remainder of 2009.

Here is the opinion of Corey Dawkins from FantasyPitchF/x -

Depending on the location and severity of the fracture, he could be out anywhere from 4 weeks to the rest of the season. I'm sure the MRI will show the extent of the damage and therefore we'll have to wait until the results come out to make a decision. Regardless, he looks to be out an extended period of time.

Bruce was replaced by Chris Dickerson who would appear to be the potential replacement, but could open more ABs for Jonny Gomes. The Reds also have Drew Stubbs in Triple-A, but he is not on the 40 man roster and would require another move to clear a spot.

If Dickerson takes over for Bruce he makes a solid choice for steals and not bad pop. He has the potential to go 10/10 in half a season of full ABs, but the strikeouts are a problem. Gomes is pretty familiar to us all now as a good power guy and a few steals, but also strikes out a bit to much. This seems to be a running theme with Reds outfielders, but Stubbs is very similar to the others here. If he happened to get a shot he has great power/speed potential, but has shown a 25%+ strikeout rate at Triple-A.

I would project that Dickerson sees most of the ABs and makes a good add for a team needing a pickup in the outfield.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 11:29pm

Church for Francoeur swap

If you haven't heard, yesterday the Mets and Braves swamped OFs Ryan Church and Jeff Francoeur. Apparently, Mets GM Omar Minaya wanted to send a message, which leaves me wondering if said message was, "I have no idea what I'm doing. Please fire me before I mess things up any further." (Sorry, as a Mets fan, this jab is mandated. Be thankful I'll stop here

.)

From a fantasy perspective, both players probably figure to be helped by the trade in the way of more playing time/better job security. Francoeur should play pretty regularly in RF for the Mets (as unqualified as he is to do so) and could find himself batting fifth for a while. Church's situation is a little less clear. He could play regularly or platoon with someone like Matt Diaz. We'll have to wait and see what Bobby Cox does. He'd be the better half of the platoon, though, and his power could be helped by Turner Field. If he winds up in a full-time role (or near full-time role), he could warrant a pickup in all 12-team mixed leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:45am

Friday, July 10, 2009

Waiver Wire: NL

Josh Willingham | Washington | OF
YTD: .290/.405/.534
True Talent: .268/.367/.473
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .257 BA, 0.1 SB
With his 2009 YTD line, it's surprising that more owners haven't rostered Willingham, as he remains available in many leagues. He's been red-hot lately, with a hit in 13 of his last 14 games, hitting .400/.474/.580. Since he plays for the Nats, his counting stats will remain depressed, but his back problems seem to be behind him (so to speak), and this could be the year he finally reaches his potential. His batting eye has improved this year (0.70 BB/K, against a career 0.53), and his 11% career walk rate is strong, so he should beat that BA projection if he can stay healthy. If you need a corner outfielder with good power and a decent BA, look no further than Willingham, who's worth a spot in all NL-only leagues, and mixed leagues 10 teams or deeper.

Todd Wellemeyer | St. Louis | SP
YTD: 5.8 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 5.58 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.58 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Wellemeyer's 18 starts are the best in baseball, but he's only managed a 7-7 record, making it a puzzle as to why he's garnered any attention at all. He's only had one scoreless appearance this season, and he's given up 3+ ER in 11 of his outings. The durability to make all those starts is admirable, but it's not all that valuable unless he's pitching better. True Talent sees him reaching some more marginal ratios, and pitching for Pujols and the Cards will give him more wins than that skill set deserves. A further good sign is the .351 BABIP against him, but all these add up to only marginal improvement. Wellemeyer's got some value in NL-only leagues deeper than 10 teams and in the deepest of mixed leagues, but don't look for any drastic changes in his numbers.

Travis Ishikawa | San Francisco | 1B
YTD: .263/.321/.408
True Talent: .253/.323/.432
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .257 BA, 0.1 SB
Ishikawa's the Giants' first baseman because they don't have too many other options. Think of him as the latest incarnation of J.T. Snow, with a great glove, a decent bat, but not a ton of power; he's got a hit in 11 of his last 12 games, but his line is just .289/.319/.444 in that time. He could ultimately surpass Snow's punchlessness, since he's young and showed some pop in the second half of 2008 (.578 SLG in the minors). He'll need to do that sooner rather than later, since Pablo Sandoval won't play 3B forever, and minor league prospect Angel Villalona is a season or two away. That kind of pressure could push him to new heights, and his rising flyball and line drive percentage (increasing 13.4% and 1.9%, respectively, since 2008) are signs he's hitting the ball hard and with some loft. Until that develops, he's only worth a spot in the deepest of NL leagues, but all owners should keep an eye on him to see if he can break out in the second half of 2009 the way he did in 2008.

Luis Castillo | New York | 2B
YTD: .276/.374/.326
True Talent: .272/.355/.333
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 HR, 2 Runs, 1 RBI, .270 BA, 0.5 SB
Fantasy owners remember Castillo for his basestealing and strong OBP numbers. Even if he's not the stolen-base machine he once was, that excellent 2009 OBP shows he still owns a good batting eye. In fact, his 2.2 BB/K ratio is stronger than it's been since 2005, and his BA is equally solid. True Talent shows you he's pretty much on target across the board, and if the Mets can get healthy and start scoring, he could add some runs to that equation, at least until Jose Reyes returns to the top of the order. He's still good for a few steals and shouldn't hurt your BA, though his power's as limp as it's always been. Don't expect him to keep looking like the Luis Castillo of 2005, but if you need some precious steals and already have good HR or SLG numbers, then Castillo's certainly worth a spot in NL-only leagues deeper than 10 teams or very deep mixed leagues.

Ryan Sadowski | San Francisco | SP
YTD: 5.0 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 1.00 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.13 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Two straight clean slates is a good way to make a major-league entrance, as the Astros and Brewers fell victim to Sadowski's 13 scoreless-inning debut. Even the Marlins could only muster 3 ER in 5 innings against him, making that 1.00 ERA and 1.11 WHIP very enticing. As weak as his peripherals are, True Talent sees him improving to near-acceptable levels in control and very good K rates. He's shown similar stats in the minors, with a 7.9 K/9 and 2.02 K/BB in six seasons, and he'll stick in the rotation for now. Obviously an ERA correction is coming—no Giants pitcher has begun his career with that many scoreless innings since 1953—but Sadowski should be a decent back-of-the-rotation option for NL owners in leagues deeper than 10 teams, and mixed leagues deeper than 15 teams.

Jamie Moyer | Philadelphia | SP
YTD: 5.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 5.72 ERA
True Talent: 5.3 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.94 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The Aged One defied the odds all last year, shaving over a run off 2007's ERA in spite of extremely similar ratios. He gets by with pinpoint control, but he's no Greg Maddux, mostly because he lacks the Professor's variety of breaking pitches, and thus won't collect as many strikeouts. If the umpire's friendly behind the plate, he can succeed, but if the strikezone is tight, he gets hammered—his 1.9 HR/9 show what happens when he's forced to put the ball over the plate. His wins have come mostly in the four starts when he gave up a single ER, but those are far outweighed by the nine games where he's given up four ER or more. He's a nice guy, and Phillies fans love him the way you love your grandpa—but you don't want Gramps pitching for your fantasy team, and you don't want Moyer either.

Garrett Jones | Pittsburgh | OF
YTD: .290/.333/.613
True Talent: .245/.303/.421
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .236 BA, 0.1 SB
The Pirates' outfield has been a mix-and-match affair this year, and Garrett Jones has been the recent beneficiary of the chaos, starting every game since the Pirates brought him to the bigs on July 1. He'd been ripping up the minors before his callup, with a tidy .307/.348/.502 line in 277 ABs—in his fifth year at that level. He was once a prospect for the power he showed, but that was tempered by his prodigious strikeout rate (0.33 BB/K) and an OPS 120 points lower against fellow southpaws. He's shown steady improvement while in AAA, and the wide-open Pirate OF will give him a chance to show he's finally arrived. His window is a short one, as Lastings Milledge is rehabbing from a broken finger and should return by the end of the month, and True Talent is pessimistic he'll hold much value. But if you believe in late bloomers, Jones is worth a short-term flyer in NL-only leagues, and all owners should watch to see if his hot start continues.

Micah Owings | Cincinnati | SP
YTD: 5.6 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 4.48 ERA
True Talent: 6.6 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.69 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 4.84 ERA
Although everyone knows Owings as the only pitcher worth watching during BP, he's actually got some skills on the rubber, too. His numbers over the past two seasons show very good control (2.12 K/BB) and nice strikeout numbers (6.8 K/9); the home run rate is his downfall, however, just as it is his offensive calling card. It doesn't help that he went from hitter-friendly Chase Field to the even more homer-riffic Great American Ballpark last season. He surrenders 1.6 HR/9 at home in Cincy, and 1.2 everywhere else, but neither are very strong ratios. He's shown improvement lately, with a 3.53 ERA and three wins in six starts in June and July; much of the damage in that span came in a 5.2 IP, six ER outing where he surrendered three HR against Toronto. He's struggled with his control lately, but history and True Talent tells you he should improve in that regard, as well as in his strikeout rate. This makes him roster-worthy in 10-team NL-only leagues, along with 18-team mixed leagues.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Brett Anderson | Oakland | SP
YTD: 6.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 4.86 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 5.11 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.29 ERA
What would “AL Waiver Wire” be without an A's pitcher? Does throwing a 9-K, 2-hitter at Boston herald a new level for Brett Anderson? We're tempted to be more impressed than the TT projection is. He only had 31 IP above A-ball prior to 2009, and his xFIP is an adequate 4.37 anyway. For fantasy purposes, the Oakland park and defense should help him outperform his FIP. Just don't expect run support.

Elvis Andrus | Texas | SS
YTD: .262/.320/.362
True Talent: .249/.300/.332
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .250 BA, 0.6 SB
Obviously gone in deeper leagues, is a regression to be expected this season, as TT predicts? Like Gardner last week, Andrus has most of his offensive impact on ground balls. He will get to play for his glove, with RZR/OOZ showing him as the second-best SS in the AL despite the errors. We think it's likely his BABIP will climb from .295 (now), as he posted .350s in the minors the past two years, and he'll thus avoid any slippage. The Rangers don't attempt many steals, else he'd be a threat for 50.

Aaron Bates | Boston | 1B
YTD: .000/.143/.000
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
A “quick-to-majors” pick in the early 3rd round of the 2006 draft, Bates and his funky leg kick got caught in a quaqmire at AA starting in '07. He's retooled his swing, and appears to have vanquished AA this year, but is now old for a prospect and hasn't mastered AAA yet (.182/.273/.295 in 99 PA). Chris Carter and McAnulty were more deserving of some more MLB time, but Boston wanted a righty bat to platoon with Kotsay, replacing an injured Bailey. All that's to say that Bates will be well and truly buried again once people start recovering from injuries.

Ryan Freel | Kansas City | UTIL
YTD: .167/.298/.167
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Back when the Reds had stationary objects in their outfield, and Freel was playing all over the place getting on base 37% of the time, the idea of installing him as a full-time outfielder (pushing Griffey to the side, and Dunn to 1B) made sense. In 2009, he's 33 and gets injured about as often as he gets on base. Still, the Royals have Bloomquist to play multiple positions, so perhaps the stability of one position will help Freel stay healthy and regain some of his 30+ SB potential. Worth a look in AL leagues if you need speed.

Scott Hairston | Oakland | OF
YTD: .296/.351/.539
True Talent: .263/.332/.477
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .267 BA, 0.2 SB
Welcome to the AL, Mr. Hairston! If Scott's performance drops off like the man he's supposedly replacing in Oakland (Holliday), Beane may never trade for another “proven” NL hitter again! And flopping is certainly an option, as his career OBP is just .312. Still, he's slugged almost .500 the past two years combined with Petco as his home, and his career line against LHP is .291/.344/.548. Expect the Jered Weavers of the world to give him fits but for him to be a top-2 offensive contributor (on the A's).

Maicer Izturis | Los Angeles | INF
YTD: .302/.352/.422
True Talent: .283/.346/.390
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 2 Runs 1 RBI, .281 BA, 0.3 SB
Warning: personal bias here, as Maicer has long been a fave of this writer. It's not like he's going to hit 20 HR, but Izturis' career stats have been suppressed by constantly playing injured. Scioscia loves him too, and he should play almost every game if healthy, leading to almost double the “next week forecast” stats, with a AVG around .300 ... making him a great backup even in shallow mixed leagues, at least until he gets hurt again.

Dustin Nippert | Texas | SP
YTD: 4.9 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 7.36 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
MSNBC (rotoworld.com) suggests putting this guy on a “watch list in AL-only leagues.” That's good advice to subtly bring to the attention of your league-mates, if any of them are gullible. With the Rangers' organizational philosophy of “leave him in,” Nippert's lack of ability, recent arm woes, and the Rangers' ballpark, only die-hardest Rangers fans should have him on a “watch list.”

Tony Pena | Chicago | RP
YTD: 6.9 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 4.24 ERA
True Talent: 6.7 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 4.00 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.96 ERA
Tony Pena gets a remarkable amount of support from both scouting types and stats types, for such a mid-level reliever. This is undoubtedly due to his upper-90s fastball and good control (2.7 BB/9, career). Still, he's a huge upgrade over Gobble—expect TT levels, with a WHIP in the upper 1.3's, as the AL transition takes away some of the gains from a lower BABIP (currently .352).

Marc Rzepcynski (zep-chin-ski) | Toronto | SP
YTD: 10.5 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.50 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Like Brandon Webb, Rzepcynski was passed over for several draft rounds (fifth round 2007), and scouts called him a “back-end starter, at best”. His advocates think he could be better than Webb as he throws harder, and actually gets more GBs (60%+ GB% in minors, just five HR in 254.2 IP). We won't get that carried away, as Webb is fantastic, but while Marc's control isn't great yet, the Jays' attention to defense make his upside enormous. Don't expect miracles in 2009, but look out in 2011!

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Simple xBABIP Calculator

For those who have been hanging around these parts since this past off-season, you'll surely be familiar with Chris Dutton and Peter Bendix's work on creating an expected Batting Average on Balls in Play metric (xBABIP). This was terrific work, which I later examined a little closer to find that xBABIP was indeed a very strong predictor of future performance.

Today, I'd like to announce that I'll be working with Chris Dutton to develop an even more advanced version of xBABIP. This is something that I've been thinking about for quite some time, and when I heard that Peter Bendix had taken a job with the Rays, I thought it made perfect sense to team up with Chris myself. We don't currently have an estimate for when the new xBABIP will be ready, but hopefully the payoff will be a good one.

To wet your whistles while you wait, Chris has put together a very nice Excel tool for calculating a simplified version of xBABIP. This is almost identical to the version that I tested in my article that I linked to above, which turned out to be quite predictive itself. The tool also does a number of other cool things, so Chris took the liberty of putting together a quick explanation/tutorial for everyone.

Simple xBABIP tool download

Here is the link to download Chris's simple xBABIP tool (the password to use it is "tuftsbat"), and here is a screenshot of what you'll see (click for a larger version):

Now for the explanation provided by Chris.

Simple xBABIP tool explanation by Chris Dutton

Begin by choosing any player/year combination from the database (note: cut-off is 300 PA in any given season)

Statistics
For each player, key performance stats are displayed for the given year, as well as the MLB average, the percent above/below average for that particular player (green = significantly better, yellow = comparable, red = significantly worse), and the maximum/minimum values for that particular year. The key stats shown here are the "Luck Factor", which is the difference between a player's BABIP and xBABIP, and the predicted batting line, which is an estimation of AVG, OBP, and SLG based on the predicted (rather than true) batting average on balls in play. In other words, this is the performance that we might expect to see in a luck-neutral environment.

Trended Performance Graph
This graph allows you to select one or two metrics and trend them either alone or against each other over time. The list includes 28 different metrics, ranging from runs and stolen bases to xBABIP, line drive percentage, and pitches per plate appearance, to name a few. This can be especially useful as a forecasting tool, as it allows you to clearly observe trends across a variety of core statistics.

Player Comparison Graph
This graph provides the same selection of metrics, and allows you to compare the performance of one player against another. In the screenshot above Manny Ramirez and Aramis Ramirez are trending against one another on the basis of RBI.

xBABIP Quick Calculator
Perhaps the most useful section of the dashboard, the xBABIP quick calculator uses a slightly simplified predictive model using more readily available statistics. By simply plugging in values for each variable, you can calculate the expected BABIP on the spot and see who is out-performing or under-performing to this point in the season. If you're wondering whether to sell high on Jermaine Dye or buy low on Magglio Ordonez, this tool can certainly help to guide your fantasy decisions.

Concluding thoughts

2009 data hasn't been incorporated into the tool since it is constantly changing, but you should still be able to input the simple xBABIP variables and compare to the BABIP listed on our player pages. Hopefully this ends up being a useful tool for everyone as we enter the second half of the season, and hopefully we'll have the brand new xBABIP ready to debut shortly.

If you guys have any questions for me or Chris, feel free to send either of us an e-mail or comment below.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:00am

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Possible Sanchez trade coming

We've heard this in years past, but the Pirates are again trying to trade MI Freddy Sanchez (h/t Rotoworld). Apparently, the Giants and Rockies are two of the interested teams, though there are "as many as four or five more". If Sanchez were to be traded, IF Ramon Vazquez would gain the most and would make a good NL-only pickup. Mixed leaguers could safely ignore him. IF/OF Delwyn Young would probably see some starts at 2B backing up Vazquez, which could give each of the OF (Brandon Moss, Garrett Jones, Steven Pearce) a few more at-bats as well.

If Sanchez were traded to the Giants, he'd slot right in at 2B and Juan Uribe would likely lose a lot of playing time (though the team could move Pablo Sandoval back to first, Uribe to third, and send Travis Ishikawa to the bench, although Ishikawa has been playing relatively well this past month). I doubt he'd bat in the middle of the order for the Giants as he is for the Pirates, so the net change in value might be a bit on the negative end.

If Sanchez went to the Rockies, things would be much less clear. SS Troy Tulowitzki has been playing well of late, 2B Clint Barmes has been playing well all year, and 3B certainly wouldn't be an option with Garrett Atkins and Ian Stewart already battling for time there. The team could view Sanchez as a super-utility type, or they could have him split time with Tulo and/or Barmes. Whatever the case, unless they decide to bench Barmes outright, Sanchez's value would likely fall.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:05pm

The Yankees bullpen

The Yankees' bullpen (and the Mets', for that matter) typically gets bashed by the media for performing poorly, but lately the Yankees bullpen has been so flawless the media has had to direct their attention elsewhere. Instead of overpaying for free agent relievers like Kyle Farnsworth, the Yankees have amassed a group of relative unknowns that have proved to be surprisingly effective.

For fantasy owners, Yankees relievers are particularly appealing not because the closer in front of them is likely to get hurt or lose his job, but because they have a higher chance of getting wins and holds (for leagues that count them). Most of these Yankees relief arms have remained under the radar and so this is meant to be a primer of those guys who are currently are doing an effective job of keeping those Yankee leads.

Alfredo Aceves (and Joba)

Alfredo Aceves is the most versatile Yankees reliever, pitching well against both lefties and righties. He has the ability to go multiple innings, having served primarily as a starter in the Mexican League and in the minors. He has great control and a decent ability to strike batters out, most notably with his change-up. Even in shallow leagues like 12-team mixed, Aceves makes a good add since I think it likely he joins the rotation and does well. And even during his time in the bullpen, he can provide value as a ratio helper and occasional win-getter in his role as the long reliever.

Aceves is actually going to start today for the Yankees, though according to manager Joe Girardi this is merely a spot start, not a full transition into the rotation. Despite the Girardi's words, taking a glance at the current Yankee rotation shows that besides Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte no one else is a lock to stay in the rotation. Chien-Ming Wang is oft-injured and particularly ineffective, Phil Hughes is apparently going to remain banished to the bullpen for the time being, and Joba Chamberlain, well, let's take a closer look at him.

+--------+-------------+-------+---+------+-------+------+------+
| Season | Player      | IP    | W | ERA  | K/9   | BB/9 | xFIP |
+--------+-------------+-------+---+------+-------+------+------+
| 2008	 | Chamberlain | 100.1 | 4 | 2.60 | 10.58 | 3.50 | 3.21 |
| 2008-S | Chamberlain | 65.1  | 3 | 2.76 | 10.19 | 3.44 |  --- |
| 2008-R | Chamberlain | 35.0  | 1 | 2.31 | 11.31 | 3.60 |  --- |
| 2009	 | Chamberlain | 84.2  | 4 | 4.04 |  7.87 | 4.36 | 4.47 |
+--------+-------------+-------+---+------+-------+------+------+

Note: 2008-S are Chamberlain's numbers as a starter, 2008-R are as a reliever

With his play of late, Joba might be answering the unanswerable of whether the rotation or bullpen is best for him. (Icon/SMI)

Joba, you could say, has been effective so far this season. His ERA sits at a decent 4.04 and for most of the season it was around 20 points below that mark, at about 3.80. In contrast are his peripheral stats, which include a dramatically decreased strikeout rate and an increased walk rate this season. Even the rates taken only from games in which he started last year are noticeably better than this year's lackluster ones.

The biggest problem with Joba this year, in my opinion, is that in his 16 starts he has thrown only 84.2 innings. That is an unexceptional average of about 5.1 innings per start and leaves the bullpen to finish the other 3.2 innings. The sacrifice in effectiveness the Yankees are making by putting Joba in the rotation does not make up for whatever advantage they gain from having him pitch a few more innings every five days. Again that is just my opinion and there is no saying Chamberlain would regain all of his effectiveness of 2008 if he moved to the bullpen anyway.

Why this matters is because the Yankees may soon get tired of Joba in the rotation, furthering Aceves' chances of securing his spot. While a possible move of Joba to the bullpen would not probably happen before August, it could come at the perfect time to keep Aceves in the rotation if Wang or even Hughes earns a spot.

Phil Hughes

Speaking of Phil Hughes, the touted prospect struggled (again) in the rotation in the beginning of the year, owning a 5.45 ERA after seven starts. Hughes then reinvented himself as a reliever with a 1.23 ERA in his 10 relief appearances since.

If unowned in your league, I would definitely take a hard look at the players on your roster and consider adding Hughes because of his current effectiveness as a reliever, his hold on the win-laden 8th inning set-up role, and the possibility of him returning to starting later in the year. Perhaps when he becomes starter again—if he does—he will maintain the success and confidence he found as a reliever.

Phil Coke

Phil Coke is the LOOGY in the Yankees bullpen and has done a great job of late of getting those lefties out. In fact in his last 18 appearances over which he has thrown 16 innings, he has allowed a mere two runs.

I should note that Coke has also had success against righties this year as they are hitting just .167 against him (lefties are hitting .176). However Coke has walked an unusually high number of right-handed batters (10) compared to just three left-handers. In the minors that split was not there so it is probably more a fluke than an actual problem.

Coke should only be looked at in leagues where holds are a category, since I envision plenty of holds in his future and not much else.

David Robertson

David Robertson, a 17th round pick in the 2006 draft, is the hidden gem in the Yankees bullpen. Although his value might not be fully realized this season as a sixth and seventh inning guy, the 24-year-old should remain on your radar for future seasons. He is an absolute strikeout machine with a K/9 of 12.8 in 20 innings in the majors this year (that's 29 strikeouts) and a career minor league rate not far off.

At times Robertson has struggled with his control but he has never encountered the major control problems that sometimes plague young pitchers. With a little maturity he should develop into a dominant reliever and possibly even Mo's replacement. Let's not get ahead of ourselves though.

Robertson's style of pitching reminds me a lot of another young reliever-now-closer who has enjoyed much success this year: Andrew Bailey. Both have good fastballs they like to throw for strikes early in the count, and then a tight curve that leads to many strikeouts.

In the meantime, all we can do is wait and see if he develops into the pitcher I think he can be.

Concluding thoughts

For what it's worth, now hopefully you know all there is about the relievers in the Yankees pen and found a pitcher who may help your fantasy team. As a darkhorse pitcher for those in really deep leagues, Sergio Mitre—yes, that Sergio Mitre who was mildly effective for the Marlins in 2007—is pitching well down for the Yankees Triple-A affiliate and could see some action in the bullpen or rotation later in the year.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:08am

Minor League Mailbag - 7/8/09

Q: Big fan and would love to hear any feedback on who has the higher upside in the future, Brett Wallace or Mat Gamel? Also, who will "stick" at third?

-- Neven

A: The Brett Wallace versus Mat Gamel battle is a hot topic in many prospect circles. If you would have asked me at the beginning of the season, I would have said Gamel hands down. But you're asking me today. I would still take Gamel, but there is cause for concern. At the plate Gamel has looked lost at times against good major league pitching. But Gamel's professional career has consisted of one tremendous building block after another. He has made huge adjustments at each level he has passed through and become a better hitter because of it. I think he will adjust once again to the best that the big leagues can throw at him. Gamel's bat has a chance to be truly dynamic in the majors. Wallace's bat, to me, doesn't hint toward great things, merely good things. Wallace is a tad overrated by many, as I don't see the big-time upside that others do.

At one point I had my doubts as to either one sticking at third base, but both are making strides and both project to be competent major league defenders at the hot corner.

Q: I know he may not have rookie status anymore, but do you foresee Joel Guzman ever returning to the majors? What would it take for him to get back there with the Nationals in the next year or two?

-- Corey

A: Guzman certainly has a chance to be an average major league third baseman, or at least a good utility man, in another year or two. He's only 24 years old and his plate discipline is coming along. If you can stash him in your farm system it's definitely worth the gamble.

Q: Who would you take and in what order: Ike Davis, Logan Forsythe or James Darnell? I’m looking at both proximity to the big leagues and ceiling.

-- Marc

A: All three players are approximately the same age, and all three players will be a part of the bubble watch list when I next update the Top 100 list. With Darnell's early struggles in the Cal League, and the fact that both Davis and Forsythe are looking solid at the Double-A level, I would put Darnell at the bottom of the list. If you prefer upside, Davis should be at the top. But if you need a third baseman and a safe bet, San Diego has high hopes for Forsythe's ability to become a solid big leaguer. If they both continue on their current path they will both make their initial marks in the majors sometime in 2010.

Q: When you say “Hanson is the best pitching prospect in baseball,” are you suggesting he is better than Price, or is he not eligible?

-- Posted by EDUB in the comments section on 05/29 at 11:55 AM.

A: To hear my thoughts on both Hanson and Price check out THT's Top 100 Prospect List. Basically, the fact that Price plays in the AL East combined with his infuriating control issues has me a bit leery of his future.

Q: It may be early to jump on Strasburg, but many of us fantasy players may be able to do just that and want to know how to compare him to others in this list. We are looking for help in valuing Strasburg now (in my keeper league he was available in reserve) and certainly feel he already belongs in top 100 (feel free to asterix him).

-- Posted by Corey in the comments section on 05/28 at 11:02 PM.

A: I have decided to add this year's draft class to the the Top 100 Prospect List as they sign. As you can see I have added players like Eric Arnett and Tony Sanchez to the watch list already. Go with your gut on Strasburg, fellas. If I had to add him to the list today he would be in the top 10.

Q:It looks like Boston is moving Casey Kelly back to shortstop. Any thoughts?

--Brian

A: That is the way it looks. Apparently Kelly has his heart set on shortstop. Unfortunately, his bat isn't doing him any favors. I don't foresee the move working for Kelly. His future is as a pitcher. Moving him off the mound for the remainder of the season doesn't hurt his long-term prospects. It's a decent way for Boston to limit his innings while keeping the young man happy and working hard.

To be featured in a future Minor League Mailbag, send and all minor league questions to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:00am (0) Comments

Wednesday, July 08, 2009

The control hitters have over LD%

I thought we'd do something a little bit different today, pulling an interesting question out of the 'ole mailbag to answer:

I understand that pitchers are not in control of their LD%s. Are hitters, and to what extent? Should I use LD% when evaluating hitters? To take an example from this year that's bothering me, Brendan Ryan has a LD% of over 22%. Albert Pujols is under 16%. I find it difficult to believe, to say the least, that this is the product of skill-driven results. Furthermore, Pujols has a below-average BABIP (in the .275 range last I checked), while Ryan's is above-average (in the .350 range last I checked). Arguably the differential in BABIP could be explained by LD%. Or, should I be looking at it as a case where the LD%s will correct, and the BABIP with it?

I've expressed, in passing, my dislike for the assumption that line drive rate is a repeatable skill, but I haven't really delved too deeply into it for quite some time. Thanks very much to reader Todd for bringing this question up and questioning something that many analysts still believe to be true.

The short answer to your question is that, no, hitters don't have very much control over their line drive rates.

Why are line drives good?

Let's take a quick step back. In case you haven't seen these numbers yet, line drives are very good. They become hits roughly 70 percent of the time, while groundballs fall in for hits just 25 percent of the time and outfield flies 15 percent of the time. Line drives are hit in the air, on a lower plane than outfield flies so that they land sooner, and they are often struck harder than outfield flies.

Line drives have a higher correlation with a hitter's Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), a huge component of batting average, so line drive rate has gotten a lot of play over the last couple years. Unfortunately, many see the high correlation and assume that a high line drive rate now will equal a high BABIP in the future. Many will even refer to and arrive at conclusions based on the "LD%+.120" formula for "expected BABIP", which I have expressed my disdain for (as a forward-looking metric) in the past. I've even shown that this formula is worse at predicting BABIP than the hitter's actual BABIP from the previous season. But why? If line drive rate correlates so well with BABIP, why doesn't it do a good job of predicting it?

Line drive rate is not very stable

That's why. If I look at all hitters from 2004 through 2008 who amassed at least 300 at-bats in adjacent seasons (and played on the same team both years*), the year-to-year correlation is 0.28. That's a little worse than what we might call a medium correlation and essentially means that 8 percent of a hitter's line drive rate can be explained by his rate in the previous season.** This is certainly significant, but it's not too terribly high. To compare, roughly 60 percent of a player's ground ball rate can be explained by his previous season rate.

*It's been shown that balls in play are classified as line drives differently from park to park, so I limited myself to players who remained on the same team as a quick way of eliminating some of this bias.
**This isn't exactly true since I'm opening myself up to some bias by including some arbitrary cut-offs, but it serves our purposes well enough.

Check out this table, which shows the best and worst line drive hitters in 2007 and how their rates fared in 2008.

+--------------+----------+-------+-------+
| LAST         | FIRST    | 07LD% | 08LD% |
+--------------+----------+-------+-------+
| Young        | Michael  | 27.20 | 22.51 |
| Figgins      | Chone    | 26.45 | 23.76 |
| Atkins       | Garrett  | 24.47 | 22.07 |
| Howard       | Ryan J   | 24.33 | 22.30 |
| Polanco      | Placido  | 23.92 | 18.73 |
| Cust         | Jack     | 23.21 | 20.83 |
| Wright       | David A  | 23.19 | 25.63 |
| Hall         | Bill     | 23.10 | 20.92 |
| Sanchez      | Freddy   | 22.47 | 24.31 |
| Aurilia      | Rich     | 22.18 | 17.95 |
+--------------+----------+-------+-------+
| Kendrick     | Howie    | 15.94 | 20.00 |
| Guerrero     | Vladimir | 15.64 | 17.09 |
| Uggla        | Dan C    | 15.64 | 15.75 |
| Snyder       | Chris R  | 15.33 | 18.22 |
| Uribe        | Juan     | 15.10 | 20.46 |
| Young        | Chris B  | 15.09 | 19.13 |
| Punto        | Nick     | 14.56 | 20.51 |
| Buck         | John R   | 13.41 | 16.19 |
| Matthews Jr. | Gary     | 12.89 | 14.46 |
| Laird        | Gerald   | 12.15 | 21.53 |
+--------------+----------+-------+-------+

Keep in mind that a league average line drive rate is roughly 19 percent. As you can see, almost all of the leaders and trailers regressed toward that 19 percent mark the following season, often quite heavily. In fact, just two of the 20 failed to move closer to league average in 2008.

If you need further validation, you can check out this list of projected line drive rates (leaders and trailers), courtesy of David Gassko and Chris Costancio's THT Projection System:

+------------+----------+-------+
| FIRST      | LAST     | pLD%  |
+------------+----------+-------+
| Garrett    | Atkins   | 21.6% |
| Todd       | Helton   | 21.3% |
| Freddy     | Sanchez  | 21.3% |
| David      | Wright   | 21.3% |
| Michael    | Young    | 21.0% |
| Bobby      | Abreu    | 20.9% |
| Manny      | Ramirez  | 20.9% |
| Ryan       | Ludwick  | 20.8% |
| Miguel     | Cabrera  | 20.7% |
| Mark       | Loretta  | 20.7% |
+------------+----------+-------+
| John       | Mayberry | 16.9% |
| Emmanuel   | Burriss  | 16.9% |
| Chad       | Tracy    | 16.9% |
| Lou        | Marson   | 16.8% |
| Robinzon   | Diaz     | 16.8% |
| Nick       | Evans    | 16.8% |
| Cameron    | Maybin   | 16.8% |
| Luis       | Castillo | 16.7% |
| Laynce     | Nix      | 16.6% |
| Alexi      | Casilla  | 16.1% |
+------------+----------+-------+

As you can see, the top projected line drive hitter for 2009 was Garrett Atkins at 21.6 percent, only a couple percentage points above league average. If we look in the other direction, Alexi Casilla is the only player projected to be much under 17 percent. This is a pretty tight range and provides further evidence that we shouldn't put much weight into wide swings in a hitter's line drive rate — sophisticated projection systems obviously include a great deal of regression to the mean for hitters.

The moral of the story

The moral of the story is that, like BABIP, line drive rate is prone to swings in luck. While some players are better line drive hitters than others and can post above average rates more often than not (see: Michael Young), hitters in general don't have a ton of control over this stat — or, at least, it takes several seasons to get a really good read on their ability. If a player like Pujols has never posted a line drive rate this low before, we should expect it to rise going forward (and like Todd suggested, his BABIP will often go with it). The reverse goes for a guy like Brendan Ryan, who has already seen his line drive rate drop to 21.5 percent since this e-mail was received a week or so ago.

Concluding thoughts

Any questions, as always, feel free to comment or e-mail me.

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:00am

Clone Wars: Ian Stewart and Mark Reynolds

Ian Stewart won't last at second base with such bad range and costing his team more than four runs in 18 games on defense. The good news is he will have the 20 games required for most leagues to have him second base eligible in 2010. His numbers so far have some similarities to Mark Reynolds, but could be a lower-average version of Chase Utley for 2010.

Name            GP   AB   R    HR   RBI  SB   CS   K%     BB%   BABIP  HR/F  P/PA
Ian Stewart     77  221   37   15   42    6    2  27.6%   7.9%  0.228  16.5%  4.1
Mark Reynolds   80  301   53   24   61   13    5  36.9%  11.2%  0.343  26.7%  4.1
Chase Utley     77  279   56   18   55    8    0  19.0%  15.2%  0.317  15.3%  4.1

Ian Stewart

MLB: APR 19 Rockies at Dodgers
APRIL 19, 2009: Rockies 9 Ian Stewart during a major league baseball game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies played at Dodgers Stadium in Los Angeles California during the day. (Icon/SMI)

So far Stewart has not been enhanced by the Coors Field effect. His tOPS+ in Coors has been 97 with an OPS of .765 for a career OPS of .777. This is only 242 ABs at Coors, but his numbers look fairly solid home and away. So before we suspect his power is a factor of Coors Field, we can say his HR/F so far is a solid rate and should hold up.

Stewart had a tough time getting playing time before this year and when he did he was showing a K% over 35%. This year, though, his ABs have been much more consistent and so his strikeout rate has settled to an improved rate of 27.6%. So far this hasn't helped his batting average in 2009 at .217, but with a BABIP of .228 that should be expected to turn around in the second half. His K% in Triple-A was a bit better at 22%, so more improvement could be seen.

The team knows they can't keep him at second base and will look to move Garrett Atkins to free third base and give it to Stewart. Atkins is going to be entering his final year of arbitration and is already earning $7 million this year. Expect Atkins to be somewhere else in 2010 and Stewart to enter the season as the starting third baseman.

Mark Reynolds

The first comparison for Stewart is to Mark Reynolds as a high strikeout guy with lots of power. In his first 530 ABs Stewart has 26 homers while Mark Reynolds was at 28 homers in his first 549 ABs. Reynolds also has played in a home stadium that has been more friendly to home runs, just like Stewart.

Reynolds still has league-leading totals in strikeouts, but with an OPS of .922 his value is clear and he has a wOBA of .394 that so far is 21 in the league overall. Stewart is trailing in this with only a .331 in his first full year at 24 years old, but in Mark Reynolds' age 24 year he had a .340.

As I covered earlier this week, Reynolds may be hitting over his head right now, but Stewart and Reynolds appear to be very similar hitters. They have solid walk rates with elevated strikeout rates. They can both top 30 homers, but also supply a surprising amount of steals. Look for Ian Stewart to have a Reynolds-type breakout in 2010 and finish 2009 with similar numbers to previous Reynolds years.

Chase Utley

Stewart isn't going to push Chase Utley from the top of the board, but his fantasy value will be a potential second place to Utley. Much like Mark Reynolds this year, he seems like the type who will slip through drafts and fall to you much later than his value will supply.

Utley has shown an elite eye this year with a walk rate of 15.2%, but in his age 24 year he had a 7.6% in his first year and has averaged 9.6% so far in his career. On the other hand he has averaged an 18.2% strikeout rate and has never finished a season over 20.1%. This gives him a clear advantage over Stewart and has him as a solid bet to beat him in all fantasy categories from this. PECOTA, though, has some amount of agreement on this comparison as Utley is ranked sixth on Stewart's most comparable players.

Conclusion

It's a solid bet that Utley finishes 2010 as the No. 1 second baseman again, but Stewart will be eligible there, have plenty of power and has numbers comparable to Reynolds and Utley. Looking at ISO, Stewart had the best rate of the three in their age 24 season. His season is still under way and could change, but he is your sleeper at second base for 2010 with one season of eligibility there left. Once he gets to third base, though, you still have a 30/10 player with an improving lineup to help him out.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 1:37am

Tuesday, July 07, 2009

Pena to White Sox

About an hour ago the White Sox announced their acquisition of reliever Tony Pena from the D'backs in exchange for Brandon Allen, a minor league infielder. Allen was ranked the ChiSox fourth best prospect by John Sickles so it shows a serious commitment from the White Sox side to bolster their bullpen (although the White Sox farm system is one of the worst in baseball).

Hurt by this trade is Matt Thornton who, before the Pena acquisition, was the next-in-line to become closer in the event of a Jenks trade or injury. We will have to see whether Thornton or Pena become the set-up man. My thought is Thornton will keep his set-up role.

Through this deal Arizona labels itself as a seller and that puts Chad Qualls in a precarious situation. Pena was the obvious replacement for Qualls, but now that Pena is gone I am not sure if Qualls is still available to be traded. My feeling is that if given the right price, the D'backs will part with Qualls and the semi-effective Jon Rauch would become the new Arizona closer.

Posted by Paul Singman at 8:14pm

Worst Monday: Balloting open

Do you have a Big Red Machine pounding in your head this morning? Or maybe you went to the Millwood once too often, or ordered "Pettitte" when you meant "petite"?

Let us know. Entering's a snap:

1. Send an email to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

2. Put Worst Monday in the subject line along with your Monday point total.

3. Attach a screen shot of your roster and their points scored for Monday. (You can paste the screen shot in a Word document and attach that.) We need the screen shot—don't spell out the tallies in the email.

4. Add brief biographical material.

We'll sift through the entries & give the lowest score on Wednesday. Each weekly winner gets a year of Heater Magazine. The winner with the lowest score for the season gets a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, coming out in December.

Posted by John Burnson at 10:20am

How to analyze a trade at the halfway point

The upcoming All Star break offers a good opportunity to assess team performance and get ready for the second half.

Since it’s also a time that engenders a great number of trades, fantasy teams in Roto leagues need to be prepared to know how to analyze transactions for potential points gain.

In some cases, this comes easy.

For example, here’s a look at the saves category of a particular league.

Exhibit 1:
Team 1: 68 saves
Team 2: 53 saves
Team 3: 50 saves
Team 4. 49 saves
Team 5: 48 saves
Team 6: 48 saves
Team 7: 47 saves
Team 8: 40 saves
Team 9: 35 saves
Team 10: 15 saves

Which team seems to be in the best position to pick up a lot of points in saves?

The obvious answer is Team 7, who stands a half dozen saves away from gaining ground in this category. In many instances Team 7 will look to acquire a closer to net him five potential points.

On the flip side, Team 1 and Team 10 are in good positions to deal a closer. Team 1 has a comfortable enough margin to begin thinking about trading a closer for a player who will help him in other categories. Team 10 is far enough behind to give up on the category and maybe trade his closer for better potential points gain.

That’s pretty basic.

Let’s move to something a little tougher to analyze.

For example, here’s a look at the strikeouts category of a particular league. Which team has the best chance of picking up points?

Exhibit 2:
Team 1: 790 strikeouts
Team 2: 758 strikeouts
Team 3: 700 strikeouts
Team 4: 694 strikeouts
Team 5: 690 strikeouts
Team 6: 688 strikeouts
Team 7: 670 strikeouts
Team 8: 620 strikeouts
Team 9: 600 strikeouts
Team 10: 550 strikeouts

Did you say Team 7 again, noting that the team is within 31 strikeouts of picking up five points?

Maybe, but maybe not. Turns out this is a trick question. Consider that not all teams have pitched an equal number of innings. Let’s say Team 7 has pitched 850 innings whereas Team 6 has only pitched 750 innings. If the league maximum is 1600 innings, we can’t weigh each team’s strikeout potential as equal. Team 6 will have a much easier time picking up four points than Team 7 will have picking up five points.

Sometimes, it’s easy figuring out where to pick up points but hard figuring out exactly how to do it. Let’s say we’re in this league:

Exhibit 3:
Team 1: 50 wins
Team 2: 49 wins
Team 3: 49 wins
Team 4: 49 wins
Team 5: 49 wins
Team 6: 49 wins
Team 7: 48 wins

Obviously, this is a tight race and whoever comes out on top in the wins category may go far in winning the league. But how does Team 7 chase wins?

Is it better to roster pitchers who go deep into games and pitch on high-scoring teams? Or is it better to roster middle relievers who won’t pitch many innings but may garner lots of vulture wins?

If Team 7 has already amassed a great deal of innings, is approaching its maximum innings allowed, and wishes to protect its ERA and WHIP, the team may opt for the middle reliever strategy. If Team 7 has pitched few innings, has a lot of upside in the strikeout category, and has assets to deal for an extra starter, he may go in a completely different direction.

The All-Star break is also a good time to analyze potential points gain because it’s roughly the half-way mark of the season, making the math easy on everyone.

For example, here’s a look at the AVG category in a particular league:

Exhibit 4:
Team 1: .284
Team 2: .283
Team 3: .277
Team 4: .277
Team 5: .276
Team 6: .275
Team 7: .265
Team 8: .263
Team 9: .260
Team 10: .250

In doing an analysis, Team 7 has to measure its potential for catching up to Teams 3-6, potentially netting one to four points versus letting go of the chase for average, potentially sacrificing one or two points.

How conceivable is it that Team 7 gets to a .276 average? Because the season is half over, the team would roughly need to add double 11 points on his average. To get to .276, he’d need 22 points, or a .287 AVG the rest of the way. That’s going to be hard to pull off.

People in fantasy leagues need to figure out the categories to pursue and the categories to relax. But keep in mind that there’s more than one way to gain ground on a competitor.

For example, let’s pretend that the teams who play in Exhibit 1 & 4 participate in the same league. Let’s also say that our favored Team 7 is in a tough battle for first place overall with the dastardly Team 5.

If Team 7 trades some of his high-average players to Team 6 for a closer, he accomplishes a couple things all at once. He gains ground in the saves category, obviously passing Team 6 and hopefully Team 5. He also provides the ammunition for Team 6 to pass Team 5 in the average category.

Trading someone like Ichiro for Andrew Bailey may seem like an insane deal. But often, it’s this type of deal that wins someone a league.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:20am

Monday, July 06, 2009

Lots of Escobar rumors

I seem to be hearing rumors all over the place about the possibility of the Braves trading young SS Yunel Escobar, although the likelihood of such a move seems to be up for debate. Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that Escobar is "legit possibility to be moved" despite his affordable contract, while ESPN's Jayson Stark says that "an Escobar trade seems highly unlikely", citing a couple of non-Brave, MLB team sources.

I don't really get all the hooplah — he's a below-average defender and only a slightly above average offensive player — but teams seem to want him (like the Royals and Red Sox). The Braves will want a lot in return for him, but in the event he is traded, the stock of MI Diory Hernandez would likely skyrocket. The Braves like Martin Prado better, allowing him to play over Kelly Johnson before he hit the DL, so he could see some time at SS, but Prado has never really played much there at the big league level and his -23.8 UZR/150 at second base (including poor range) indicates it wouldn't be a sound move.

That leaves Diory Hernandez with an open path to playing time as he's the only guy on the active roster capable of playing short. He's not a tremendous player, but he would make a great add in NL-only leagues with his solid power/speed combination and respectable enough batting average skills. If he's available in your league and you have an open roster spot, it might not hurt to stash him, depending on whether you believe O'Brien or Stark more.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:29pm

Deadline closer deals: The bane of a fantasy owner’s existence

With Fourth of July weekend wrapping up and the All-Star break quickly approaching, trading season is in full swing for Major League Baseball (or at least trade rumor season is). While lots of names have been bandied about, something that's caught my attention is how many closers seem to be on the trading block this year. Here's a list of closers who could end up being moved by the end of the month (in rough order of likelihood):

That's 12 closers, or nearly 40 percent of all players delivering saves for fantasy owners (and that's not even counting setup men like John Grabow, LaTroy Hawkins, and Rafael Betancourt, among many others). I'm sure I don't need to tell you that this is a huge number.

Who's buying?

The problem that fantasy analysts haven't seemed to pick up on (or if they have, it hasn't been written about anywhere that I've seen) is that there are few teams actually looking to buy a closer. Check out this list of teams currently in playoff contention and their respective closers.

+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| Team         | Place | W  | GB  | Closer        |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| Boston       | 1     | 48 | -   | Papelbon      |
| NY Yankees   | 2     | 46 | 2.5 | Rivera        |
| Tampa Bay    | 3     | 44 | 5   | Howell        |
| Toronto      | 4     | 42 | 7.5 | Downs         |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| Detroit      | 1     | 43 | -   | Rodney        |
| Chicago Sox  | 2     | 41 | 2.5 | Jenks         |
| Minnesota    | 3     | 41 | 3   | Nathan        |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| LA Angels    | 1     | 43 | -   | Fuentes       |
| Texas        | 2     | 42 | 1   | Francisco     |
| Seattle      | 3     | 40 | 3.5 | Aardsma       |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| Philadelphia | T-1   | 39 | -   | Lidge         |
| Florida      | T-1   | 41 | -   | Nunez         |
| NY Mets      | 3     | 39 | 1   | K-Rod         |
| Atlanta      | 4     | 38 | 2   | Gonzo/Soriano |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| St. Louis    | 1     | 43 | -   | Franklin      |
| Milwaukee    | 2     | 42 | 0.5 | Hoffman       |
| Cincinnati   | 3     | 39 | 2   | Cordero       |
| Chicago Cubs | 4     | 39 | 2   | Gregg         |
| Houston      | 5     | 38 | 3   | Valverde      |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+
| LA Dodgers   | 1     | 50 | -   | Broxton       |
| SF Giants    | 2     | 42 | 7.5 | Wilson        |
| Colorado     | 3     | 41 | 8.5 | Street        |
+--------------+-------+----+-----+---------------+

Note: Standings are a couple days old, but it doesn't change my point.

This list is littered with the names of established closers like Jonathan Papelbon, Mariano Rivera, and Francisco Rodriguez. Despite how many teams are on the list, the only ones who may be looking for a closer are Texas, Detroit, Seattle, and maybe... maybe Florida. That's about it. The rest either have a closer, don't have the money, talent, or willingness to acquire a big-name reliever, or would rather upgrade elsewhere.

Bad news

What this means is that, if some of the nine closers above are traded, there's a good chance it will be into a setup role. That would be absolutely disastrous for fantasy owners. While teams usually only sport one closer, every team is open to improving the rest of their bullpen, and this year in particular, several teams are without elite setup men (like the Yanks, Angels, Dodgers, Twins, Mets and Cardinals). If, say, Huston Street gets traded to the Yankees, his fantasy value in mixed leagues is shot.

There's already talk of the Yankees acquiring Street or Qualls, the Twins acquiring Capps, the Angels acquiring Street, and plenty of others that are being discussed internally or are being kept quiet for the time being, I'm sure.

Other possibilities

It is, however, entirely possible that little comes of all this. Let's consider a few things. First, it's quite probable that the sellers view their relievers as closers, while most of the buyers will view them as setup men, leading to the sellers wanting more than the buyers are willing to offer.

Second, basic economics teaches us that when the supply of a commodity is high (and it most certainly is here, especially with all the good setup men available), the price of the commodity lowers. After all, if the Rockies try asking for a ridiculous amount for Street, the Yankees (or whoever else) could simply say, "Whatever, I'll go talk to Arizona about Qualls, Pittsburgh about Capps." This could lower the cost of all of these closers to the point where their teams no longer deem the return acceptable.

And that's not even considering the possibility of the endowment effect coming into play. Throw it all together, and we might only see a couple of these big names traded. Of course, this could be upset a bit if some teams ultimately decide to become buyers and not sellers (check the playoff contender list again—six closers on there overlap with the first list, lowering the supply and raising the price of all closers back up).

Suggestions for handling this tricky situation

Overall, I'd say that if you own one of these closers, it would be worthwhile to see if you can swap him out for a closer more stable in his job. Maybe offer up a two-for-two deal to conceal your true intentions, if you so desire (i.e. Matt Kemp and Huston Street for Nate McLouth and Jonathan Broxton or something like that).

A variation of this two-for-two ploy could be to ask for an unlucky starting pitcher in return (think Ricky Nolasco, Scott Baker, Randy Johnson types), actually allowing yourself to upgrade at two spots (i.e. Matt Cain and Street for Nolasco and Broxton). One more variation could be to ask for a closer with inferior skills or health concerns (think Kevin Gregg and Fernando Rodney types) and then upgrade at another position. If the other owner doesn't have these same deadline-deal fears as you, he might jump on it.

Don't go too crazy, though, and don't downgrade too much at another position if that's the route you choose—there's no guarantee that any of these closers will actually be traded. While guys like Jenks and Wood are probably safe, I would be pretty aggressive in shopping Qualls, Street, and (to a slightly lesser extent) Capps. Just don't make it obvious that you're looking to deal them, as you won't get the kind of offers you'll be looking for.

Guys to stash

For those looking to be a step ahead of the competition, here are the respective setup men who are next-in-line for saves should any of the 12 closers from the beginning of the article be traded. A (T) means that the reliever is also a trade candidate, so a third option will also be listed (in the event both the closer and top setup man are traded). A (?) means that next-in-line is somewhat unclear and this is more of a guess. A (DL) means that the reliever is on the disabled list at the moment, so a third option will also be listed.

Tony Pena
Manny Corpas (DL)/Matt Daley
John Grabow(T)/Jesse Chavez(?)/Joel Hanrahan(?)
Jim Johnson/Danys Baez(T)
LaTroy Hawkins(T)/Chris Sampson(?)
Cla Meredith(T/?)/Edward Mujica(?)/Mike Adams(?)
Matt Thornton
Juan Cruz(T)/Jamey Wright/Robinson Tejeda(?)
Mike Gonzalez/Rafael Soriano (whoever isn't traded)
Rafael Betancourt(DL/T)/Chris Perez
Jason Frasor(T)/Brandon League(?)/B.J. Ryan(?)

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:01am

Mark DeRosa needs a raise

Recently, 34-year-old Mark DeRosa was traded from the Indians to the Cardinals. The occasion brought to light an aspect of DeRosa’s value that is overlooked (or, at least, under-enumerated).

That aspect is DeRosa’s versatility. Thus far in 2009, DeRosa has played 44 games at third base, 17 games in left field, 9 in right field, and 8 at first. Last year, his main spot was 2B (95 games), but he also played at least 20 games at 3B, LF, and RF, along with one game each at 1B and SS.

Such flexibility is not trivial. Why did St. Louis want DeRosa? As Rotowire.com put it, DeRosa “can play all over the infield, which makes him a perfect fit for the Cardinals.” Assuming this is true (and it’s almost inarguable), then there is an element of DeRosa that we need to account for. Sure, we can go through and total DeRosa’s Wins Above Replacement at each position. But that exercise dodges the value of the ability itself to play multiple positions.

There are two major ways in which DeRosa provides greater value than does a player of the same total WAR but single-position eligibility:

1. Higher resale value

Because DeRosa can play multiple positions, he can fill holes on a larger number of teams; hence, the demand for his services is stronger and so the winning bid should be higher. (This is true even if each team intends for DeRosa to play only one spot; it’s the volume of bids that matters here.)

Cleveland almost certainly fielded more offers for DeRosa—and hence got a better deal for him—than if he played only one spot. Likewise, in the expert fantasy league LABR, the winning FAAB bid for DeRosa was so high ($80!) in good part because most teams could justify submitting bids. (There may even be an add-on effect, whereby teams pay a premium because they know that DeRosa will be easy to off-load later.)

If you want a bargaining chip, you can’t do better than one that appeals to every buyer.

2. Easier replacement of teammates

Because DeRosa can play multiple positions, he indirectly expands the list of tenable substitutes at positions that he can play but that he’s not currently playing. Your left fielder goes down? Well, you can keep DeRosa at 2B and look for a LF—or you can put DeRosa in LF and look for a 2B. Whichever's better.

The thing to note about this factor is that it’s REUSABLE—each time that DeRosa’s team loses a player at a spot that DeRosa can play, DeRosa’s owner can cast a wider net for fill-ins. And a larger pool of candidates should mean a higher-caliber substitute. (Note that we are not saying that DeRosa has the same value at each position, only that he expands options.)

Moreover, DeRosa’s owner can discriminate not only among overall value but among the nature of that value—maybe the team wants speed, maybe they want a left-handed bat, maybe they want a closer. Whichever the case, more applicants means a better fit.

Imagine two teams. Every player has the same relative value for his position, but on one of the teams, players can play only one spot, whereas on the other team, players can play every spot.

Which team will finish with the better record? The first team—IF two things are true:

1. Players are inconsistent. If players never got hurt or had bad genuinely match-ups, or they never went on stretches that (rightly or wrongly) left them open to demotion, then positional flexibility wouldn’t matter because players would never need to be replaced.

2. Replacement talent is not evenly distributed. If every replacement player who was available to a team had the same relative value for his position, AND talent was evenly distributed among replacement players such that players were identically skilled from both sides of the plate, on the basepaths, and with the glove, then positional flexibility wouldn’t matter because no player would address a need better than would any other.

Fortunately, both things are true: Players are inconsistent, and replacement talent is not evenly distributed. And if the first team does beat out the second team, then our notion of “value” must be incomplete.

In fact, it seems to me that NO extant valuation method properly accounts for DeRosa’s versatility. Valuation systems generally treat a season as a set of numbers—add up the player’s contributions at the plate and in the field and you have his value. However, a season can also be seen as a string of events (some within a team’s control, some out of it). In that light, finding a player’s value entails not a comparison of that player’s success to the success of other players at his position, but a comparison of his team’s success to the success of teams (real or conceived) that lack the player.

Current valuation models are static. They miss that flux; they miss the ebb and flow of a season.

Mark DeRosa “makes his team better,” not because of pats on the back but in a true economic sense: He expands the options for the team when one of his teammates goes down, or when the team is looking to deal him for a needed quantity.

Whatever Mark DeRosa’s making, it’s not enough.

Posted by John Burnson at 1:01am

Sunday, July 05, 2009

A’s acquire Scott Hairston

The A's have acquired OF Scott Hairston from the Padres for two minor league pitchers. For those in AL-only leagues with midnight deadlines tonight, make sure you bid on Hairston. The news might have been announced too early in the evening for you to squeak a low bid by your leaguemates, but if they're the type to fall asleep at the wheel, maybe you can. Hairston probably won't hit for a great average, but he should hit for good power, could steal a few bases, and should play full-time (or close to it, especially after/if Matt Holliday gets traded). Must own in AL-only leagues — mixed leaguers, there's no need to rush to get him if he's sitting on your waiver wire.

It'll be interesting to see how the A's juggle playing time, but for now, this is definitely bad news for Travis Buck and Rajai Davis owners, and Jack Cust and Ryan Sweeney will probably end up seeing less time as well. Which one loses more is yet to be seen. This could even have a domino effect on Jason Giambi and Nomar Garciaparra if the A's decide to get Cust more ABs in the DH spot to make up for lost OF ABs.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:11pm

Friday, July 03, 2009

Wright power bounceback? Maybe not too likely

David Wright owners? Sorry, but that power bounceback you're expecting might not be coming. The excellent Sean Smith ran some numbers a week or so ago and found that Wright should only be expected to hit around 11 more dingers from now until the end of the season. He does estimate the BABIP to be a very high .368, but the expected 76 percent contact rate would put his rest-of-season batting average at around .303. All said, expect Wright to be a good fantasy contributor the rest of the way, but don't expect him to reach 30 or even 20 HRs — and of course the batting average will drop.

Also, for what it's worth, True Home Runs wasn't the biggest fan of Wright coming into the year. I originally thought he might have been a lone outlier, somehow beating the system (and it's possible this 2009 outage is caused more by CitiField than anything else), but perhaps not. Worth noting. It's on my list to check into further.

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:30pm

Vazquez trade rumors

There have been some trade rumors regarding Javier Vazquez over the past month or so (h/t MLBTR), and given my fascination with the guy, I thought I should chime in on these.

If he is traded, he'd likely still be a top fantasy option, though his park is more favorable than most in many regards. Strikeouts are boosted 3.9 percent, BABIP is suppressed by at least 4 percent, and HRs are suppressed by 0.9 percent (though BBs are boosted and GBs are suppressed by about 1.5 percent each). Overall, Turner Field only suppressed run scoring by 0.4 percent, so a move could end up being beneficial for Vazquez if he stays within the National League, especially if he finds himself with a better offense going to bat for him and a better defense behind him (the Braves are 22nd in run scoring and 28th in UZR/150 this season).

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:56pm

Waiver Wire: NL

Everth Cabrera | San Diego | SS
YTD: .288/.362/.423
True Talent: .233/.306/.309
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 3 Runs, 1 RBI, .229 BA, 2.0 SB
Cabrera is trying to make the nearly impossible leap from High-A to the majors in one season, and he's not a player with the offensive skills to accomplish this easily. Add to this the broken hand that kept him out of the lineup for two months, and it's incredible that he's performed as well as he has. True Talent tells you he's not going to keep hitting for power, and he needs to improve his batting eye (0.66 BB/K in minors) to leverage his contact skills. Those steal numbers have value, and they're for real (109 SBs in 235 minor-league games), which shows Cabrera has real value to any team as long as he holds onto his starting spot. HEATER pegs his True Talent OPS at No. 27 among NL shortstops, making him best for the deepest of NL-only leagues, or for owners who need his steals at any price to their ratios.

Sean West | Florida | SP
YTD: 5.3 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 4.06 ERA
True Talent: 7.0 K/9, 1.0 K/BB, 6.00 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 10.1 IP, 0.6 Wins, 8 K, 5.64 ERA
The Marlins gush pitching prospects like the chocolate waterfall in Willy Wonka's factory—but that doesn't mean you should take a swim in the river. West is a fastball-curveball lefty who's still learning to hit the strike zone, as his YTD and True Talent numbers clearly show. Fantasy owners loved him after his six innings of shutout ball against the Orioles, only to see him cough up five ER in 4.1 IP against the lowly Nats. That's the wild Wonkavator ride you're in for if you want a taste of West. He's just a rookie and might put it together, but that probably won't be until 2010. Until then, he's good for strikeouts, heart palpitations, and little else.

Jack Wilson | Pittsburgh | SS
YTD: .284/.312/.413
True Talent: .277/.322/.389
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .279 BA, 0.2 SB
As a shortstop who hits adequately and fields well, Wilson would be much better regarded in a different era. In today's game, when shortstops must not only field and hit but hit for power, the small-market Wilson is notable mostly for his ugly dentition. Fantasy owners have noticed him more lately, as he's on a .356/.397/.525 tear in his past 17 games, a line that would make even his dental hygenist smile. True Talent shows you that's not likely to continue, but even at TT's levels, he's a good enough shortstop for NL-only leagues deeper than 12 teams. Deeper mixed leagues can ride him in the short term, but all owners should realize he'll bring decent BA with very little pop in the end.

Chad Gaudin | San Diego | SP
YTD: 9.4 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.97 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 4.41 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 5 K, 4.41 ERA
If you eliminate three awful starts where Gaudin gave up 21 ER in just 14 IP, his overall numbers aren't bad: 4-3, with a 2.86 ERA and a 1.18 WHIP. But three bad starts are three bad starts, and Gaudin owners didn't wait around for his nine other decent-to-good outings. He's won two of his last three starts, striking out 28 against just five BBs over 21 IP over that time. You can see from True Talent that his strikeouts and control numbers are for real, if a little inflated. PETCO is a good place to pitch, and his ERA is almost a full run lower at home, but the Padres aren't going to give him many wins. Leagues counting Quality Starts can find value here—six of his outings have yielded a QS—as can any league counting his nice strikeout numbers. Just be aware that those disastrous starts may be just around the corner. That gives Gaudin some value in nearly all NL-only leagues, at least as a back-end starter, and makes him a worthy addition in mixed leagues at least 14 teams deep.

Martin Prado | Atlanta | 2B
YTD: .305/.368/.482
True Talent: .287/.345/.404
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .288 BA, 0.1 SB
Bobby Cox announced this week that Prado would be his starting 2B, creating a flurry of activity among fantasy owners, and with good reason. Prado is not only hot since he started playing the keystone—.438/.486/.656—but his True Talent numbers are also strong for that position. His skills are well-balanced, with moderate pop, the occasional steal, and a good batting eye (0.64 BB/K in minors, 0.86 BB/K in 525 MLB PAs), so he's got the skills and the opportunity to stick. Despite that, he's clearly not going to sustain this level of production for the rest of the season, and a prolonged slump could bring Kelly Johnson back to the starting lineup. But even if he can only match that TT line, he's a good enough option for NL-only leagues 10 teams and deeper, or mixed leagues 14 teams and deeper.

Mike Hampton | Houston | SP
YTD: 6.0 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.44 ERA
True Talent: 5.4 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.75 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 3 K, 4.70 ERA
As bad as Hampton's bloated Colorado contract was, he's at least still pitching, and can be a decent starter when healthy. Those overall ratios are his best in years, and True Talent shows you they're not far off the mark. His value is depressed by several factors, including his injury history, home park, and the Astros' recent announcement that they'll go to a six-man rotation. But he's pitched well over his past four starts (2-2 record, 2.16 ERA), with a DL stint for a strained groin in between. He'll bring a handful of strikeouts, probably hit the DL again or miss a start occasionally, and he's a smart enough pitcher to avoid complete disaster. He's a gamble for any owner, probably best suited for streaming or spot starting in mixed leagues greater than 16 teams; NL-only leagues deeper than 12 teams could use him on a more regular basis.

Nate Schierholtz | San Francisco | OF
YTD: .302/.328/.444
True Talent: .290/.331/.466
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .294 BA, 0.4 SB
As Fred Lewis has slumped, Schierholtz has surged, making him the RF du jour for the Giants. He's made the most of his chance, hitting .389/.421/.583 in the last nine games, all of them starts, and he may be on the verge of realizing his promise. He's got power (.518 SLG in the minors) and a good contact rate (82%) but these are undercut by his strike zone judgment (minor league 0.33 BB/K). If he sticks in right, he'll be worth a pickup in 10-team mixed and nearly all NL-only leagues. In the meantime, grab him if you've got a spot or watch him to be sure this starting role is for real.

Homer Bailey | Cincinnati | SP
YTD: 4.8 K/9, 0.38 K/BB, 8.68 ERA
True Talent: 6.5 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 5.40 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.95 ERA
The much-hyped Bailey has burned enough owners to make many forget he's only 23 and has solid skills. He's done very well in 89.2 AAA IPs this year, with 8.2 K/9, 3.04 K/BB and a 2.71 ERA. His MLB numbers this season come from just two starts—an ugly six ER, 4.1 IP debut and a stronger 5.0 IP, three ER outing—and his walk numbers in both outings were obviously unacceptably high. True Talent's 1.4 K/BB isn't really strong, either, so he's going to struggle, but there's a reason why he's been a top-ranked prospect in the Reds' system for years. If he can learn to throw strikes with his impressive heater, curve and developing cutter, he's going to be awfully good, but he's not there yet. Keeper owners who have given up on 2009 can stash him on their bench, but other owners should take a wait-and-see attitude. He's got the stuff to be an ace if he can put it all together.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Rod Barajas (reprise) | Toronto | C
YTD: .267/.303/.434
True Talent: .249/.302/.405
Next Week Forecast: n/a
When we last visited Senor Barajas, he was slugging over .500, and the advice was, “it's time to trade him to someone who believes in 'hot streaks' and 'momentum.'” Now he's back to Earth, and while the Jays are no longer scoring six runs per game, they're still at nearly five, which provides enough run and RBI opportunities. He's tough as nails, shaking off an ankle injury to avoid the DL, and is a nice AL League value pick if someone kicked him to the curb.

Brett Gardner | New York | CF
YTD: .289/.367/.421
True Talent: .261/.341/.362
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 Runs 1 RBI, .266 BA, 1.3 SB
A super-fast guy like Gardner, who puts 47% of his BIP on the ground, is more at the mercy of the defenses and groundskeepers than anything else. That gives reason to believe that his actual OBP may exceed the TT prediction. Yet, even at TT levels, the 50 steals would make him a dominant fantasy force if he wasn't a fourth outfielder. Any sign of failure/injury by a starter makes this guy a must-play in all formats.

Franklin Gutierrez | Seattle | OF
YTD: .278/.346/.409
True Talent: .261/.322/.409
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 4 Runs, 4 RBI, .270 BA, 0.6 SB
Nobody in Cleveland is surprised that Franklin Gutierrez is dominating the CF defensive stats this year (.986 RZR, 60 OOZ plays, both tops among CF qualifiers). With the non-Felix portion of the rotation needing all the flycatching support it can get and Endy Chavez out for the season, his job is virtually slump-proof. As TT indicates, don't expect a star, but for AL-only leagues, just playing every game has value.

David Hernandez | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 5.6 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.19 ERA
True Talent: 7.4 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 6.17 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.1 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.52 ERA
Finally, an O's pitcher to get excited about! Scouts have been luke warm on Hernandez for his entire minor-league career, with BA's Prospect Handbook suggesting he gets by with “deception” and ranking him 16th. But his fastball velocity is higher than Matt Garza's (93.4 to 93.0), and he cranked his AAA K/9 rate up to an absurd 12.4 to earn a promotion. The rough division and young pitcher fickleness (see: “True Talent” projection, for example) make him a “no go” for 1-year Mixed leagues, but in keeper or AL Leagues, he's worth a long look.

Kenji Johjima | Seattle | C
YTD: .250/.272/.380
True Talent: .258/.300/.383
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 Runs, 3 RBI, .266 BA, 0.1 SB
Johjima-san is returned. This probably comes as good news to the Mariners and fantasy teams (in really deep league) who had Rob Johnson (barely) active for the past month. Johjima has hit .280/.317/.421 in the second halves of seasons in his U.S. career, the increase over first-half stats being an oddity among catchers. It's been a while since he's been effective, but he averaged 16 HR and almost .290 his first two seasons in MLB. His BABIP should rise from .244; be cautiously optimistic.

Sean O'Sullivan | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.00 ERA
True Talent: 4.1 K/9, 0.9 K/BB, 6.62 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Almost certainly getting bumped from the rotation (and probably the majors) upon Santana's return this week, don't get too excited about O'Sullivan's birth certificate, even in a keeper league. He's a rare “crafty righty,” who gets deserved credit for surviving the California League in 2008, but is nowhere near ready for MLB success. That he has 18 decent IP under his belt is just a fluke.

Chris Perez | Cleveland | RP
YTD: 11.1 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 5.55 ERA
True Talent: 9.7 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 3.91 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.87 ERA
Chris Perez has the best “True Talent” ERA on the Tribe. He can sometimes hit 98 on the gun. He blew through the minors in about two full seasons, after getting selected in the supplemental (1st) round in 2006. He struck out 12.0 minor leaguers/9 IP, and MLB hitters have posed little more challenge (9.8/9 career, 11.1 in 2009). He walks too many—and probably always will—but the expected slight improvement in control should make him into a relief ace sooner rather than later ... perhaps in 2009 if Wood is dealt.

Andy Sonnanstine | Tampa Bay | SP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 6.61 ERA
True Talent: 5.6 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.22 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Sonnanstine is an example of how fine the line is for pitchers ... the combination of two games started at the New Yankee Bandbox, some bad luck (BABIP up 18 points from '08, HR/FB of 15%), and slightly worse control (1.7 BB/9 up to 2.4 BB/9) ... and suddenly he's back in AAA. He should still be the same pitcher when he returns; about 90% as good as he showed in 2008. Hear that, Omar Minaya?

Chris Woodward | Seattle | 3B/2B
YTD: .333/.400/.333
True Talent: .234/..296/..331
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .241 BA, 0.3 SB
Mixed-league players can skip this one. Chris Woodward is an “in case of emergency only” player for the deepest AL-only leagues. As a RH hitter whose only “plus” is that he's hit about 11 HR per 600 PA in his career, Safeco isn't even a good park for him. He is good enough on defense that manager Don Wakamatsu hasn't been tempted to shift Branyan to 3b to make room for Carp, but a cold week by Woodward could result in that changing over the break.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 1:59am

Thursday, July 02, 2009

Open secrets

Recently, Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ did something that perhaps many fantasy players have been tempted to do. Having decided to start "playing for next year", Shandler had several high value players that he wanted to trade for players with better prospects or fantasy contracts and he made this information public knowledge. Of course, he got many (I think five) offers, but he felt that they were all low-ball offers from owners that were notorious low-ballers. So, he made all the offers public to his league, so that each team would "know" that there were many interested owners and that they had better up their offers. Predictably, the rest of the league was upset, but some teams made better offers and perhaps made those offers sooner than they would have if Shandler hadn't revealed the details. So, was this a good move by Shandler?

The easy and often heard answer is "yeah." These answers acknowledge that Shandler may have broken an Omerta code of silence in fantasy. This code is a part tacit agreement, part cultural norm (like not wearing white after Labor Day). But, fantasy baseball is a zero-sum game where winners win by, in part, making losers lose and "the ends justify the means."

However, revealing the details of trade offers may not be a good strategy, especially in a league like Shandler's where you are likely to make many trades with owners. Here are some things to consider if you're thinking of "pulling a Shandler:"

(Don't reveal) Private information may be useful to you.
If you have two (or more) teams making offers to you and each team knows (or even just suspects) that the other team has made an offer, you will get better offers. Revealing the details of your offer gives your opponents something to shoot at, though. The counteroffers that you'll get may only be slightly better than the offers you revealed. Removing suspense removes much doubt.

(Do reveal) To show that indeed you really do have all the offers that you claim to have.
Ideally, you'd like to tell your opponents that you have lots of good offers while not necessarily telling them who made the offers or what players where involved. Of course, your adversary may just assume you are lying (or exaggerating). Talk is cheap, after all.

(Don't reveal) Your talk is credible.
Have you had negotiations with these teams before where you pulled out in favor of a different trade? Then, perhaps, your claim of other offers (without actually naming names) will be more credible. On the flip side, have you been caught in a lie before where you claimed to have a better offer but then accepted your opponent's initial offer? Then this owner isn't likely to trust your protestations for a while.

(Don't reveal) If players know or expect that you'll reveal a trade they may make you fewer offers because they don't want the fact that they are willing to trade certain players made public knowledge.
Once the entire league knows that I am willing to trade a certain player and the price I want for that player, I'm not likely to get a good deal for that player in future negotiations. (On a related note: ever go for a job interview where the employer asks you what salary you'd be willing to work for?) Owners may also make more low-ball offers to you.

(Do reveal) Your opponents never make serious offers.
Most players prefer to get an offer than to make an offer. Often these teams will initiate trade talk by making a low offer that they know you'll never accept just to get negotiations going but never subsequently counteroffer. If they never make a serious offer it can be hard to get any information about what they are looking for and how much they value your players. Revealing these low-ball offers can be a way to get serious teams to make serious offers and give you some information.

In summary, I would be wary of Shandlering in leagues where I was likely to want to deal with these owners again, though not because I am worried about their fragile feelings. There are many ways to get what I want without dropping this atom bomb. If I was stuck with a bunch of low offers, I would first hint that I had some other offers, possibly implicitly threatening that I would cut off negotiations with a team if it didn't start making serious offers (this needs to be done politely - just say that you don't think there's a potential trade to be made at this time). If this didn't work, then I'd perhaps reveal that I had X number of offers.

If I really felt that revealing the details of a trade would yield a much better offer, I would probably ask first. Take the best offer currently made and ask that owner if you can reveal it. Of course, you don't need his permission to do it, but asking first is likely to make him less worried about you in future trades. If that owner says no, then ask him if he feels like he has truly made the best possible offer.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 3:01am

Roster Doctor - 7/2/09

Welcome to THT Fantasy's Roster Doctor. If you'd like your team to be analyzed by one of our fantasy baseball experts, please send your full roster to this address. Also be sure to include your league's player pool (mixed, AL-only, NL-only), number of teams, scoring format (roto, head-to-head, points, etc.), categories, whether or not it's a keeper league, and any other pertinent information. If your roster is selected it will be analyzed in a future Roster Doctor column.

Player Pool: Mixed
No. of Teams: 12
Categories: 5x5, daily, Public, Keeper
Scoring: Roto
Roster:
C- Chris Iannetta
C- Ronny Paulino
1B - Lance Berkman
2B - Chase Utley
3B - Chipper Jones
SS - Michael Young
CI - Adam LaRoche
MI - Robinson Cano
OF - Matt Holliday
OF - Shin-Soo Choo
OF - Brett Gardner
Util - James Loney
BN - Manny Ramirez
BN - Andy LaRoche
DL - Carlos Beltran
DL - Carlos Delgado

SP - CC Sabathia
SP - Cliff Lee
SP - Felix Hernandez
RP - Joakim Soria
RP - Mike Gonzalez
RP - Andrew Bailey
P - Ricky Nolasco
P - Roy Halladay
P - Tommy Hanson
BN - Chris Volstad
BN - Joel Pineiro

This team, as you can probably tell with a quick scan, has a lot of big name players and appears like it would be near the top of even a shallow league. However upon closer inspection, you will see it has some faltering pieces and as a result, the owner told me he has dropped in the standings to eighth place.

Starting at catcher, Iannetta is having one of the odder seasons of any player, batting just .229 but with 10 home runs. I would hold onto him for the second half as his batting average should rise with his undeserved .243 BABIP, making him one of the better catchers to own. I understand that in a two catcher league the position can get scarce so if Ronny Paulino is the best catcher available, then I am fine with him on your team. He does, at least, seem to be getting a larger slice of the playing time pie lately with John Baker struggling.

Of your infielders Chipper is the sole disappointment now that Berkman heated up. A .290 batting average out of Chipper is only disappointing compared to his previous seasons' averages, but is still very good coupled with nine home runs. I have found that Chipper is one of the harder players to trade in fantasy baseball—be it because of his age and health risks—so you might as well hang onto him and hope his health holds. If you are looking for a replacement down the road, fellow Brave Martin Prado is getting harder and harder to ignore everyday.

Fortunately Beltran will not require surgery and you should be thankful he may return soon following the All-Star break. When your outfield comes back together as you originally envisioned it—with Beltran, Manny, and Holliday—it should rival the best. It will only help that Holliday will probably find his way out of Oakland and to a park friendlier to hitters.

Choo, who is quietly having a terrific season, should not be relegated to the bench then, instead you should check splits and what pitchers your batters are facing to only play guys during optimal conditions.

The other readers I know dislike this, but your pitching is almost beyond improvement. Since it is star-studded but also has the depth of Volstad and Nolasco and the potential of Hanson, you should definitely try and trade a pitcher to improve your hitting somewhere. Upgrading your second catcher or maybe acquiring a second third baseman to backup Chipper would be beneficial.

Sabathia would be the big name pitcher I would most want to trade considering that his front line numbers of a 1.09 WHIP and 3.55 ERA still seem alright on the surface. However his drop in strikeout rate, increase in walk rate, and low BABIP make me think his second half might not look as pretty as his first half does.

Your bullpen is solid with two-and-a-half closers (Gonzalez being the half) and does not need to be messed with. If anything, you could trade away a closer to a team that is looking for one.

Stay active and when your injured players return to the starting lineup your team should be good enough to climb in the standings.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:59am

Wednesday, July 01, 2009

If they get traded…

Several high-profile players are rumored likely to be traded by the deadline, and these trades always open up roster spots for players stuck on the bench or the minors.

Matt Holliday is a candidate to be traded by the deadline, and if traded that will open up an outfield starting job. Aaron Cunningham and Travis Buck would be the two players most likely to see an increase in playing time and both have been solid minor league players but have never put it together in the majors.

Buck flashed his potential in his rookie season in 2007 when he played half the season and batted .290 with 7 home runs and 4 steals. He has since bounced between the majors and Triple-A, playing well in Sacramento but poorly in Oakland. Cunningham is known as a polished, overall solid player whose game should translate well to the majors. Both players should only be considered in AL-Only leagues (or 16+ mixed) if Holliday leaves town.

Alex Rios of the Blue Jays is another player likely to be dealt, and the obvious replacement for him in right is someone fantasy players are familiar with from the beginning of the season: Travis Snider. Snider played well at times in his major league audition, but ended up a bit over matched and left for Triple-A with just a .242 batting average and 3 home runs. At just 21 years old there is still time for him to mature, but he should be looked at more for next year.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:15pm

Worst Monday: Week 4 results

Reader Jim Ulbrich on Monday sent forth nine batters—well, he hired nine batters to go forth. Most of them took the money and ran:

                 Monday's result
J.D. Drew           3-for-5
Bobby Abreu         2-for-4
7 other batters     0-for-28

Making things worse is that Jim plays in a linear-runs league in which all outs are negative. As a result, Jim's team put up -5 points. For his efforts, Jim receives a year's subcription to Heater Magazine. The race for the overall prize, a free copy of the 2010 Graphical Player, is still led by two past winners who recorded -5.7 points.

Of the other entrants, we are also going to recognize Brian Mills. Brian actually finished Monday with 1 point, which would have been a stroll on the beach for Jim Ulbrich; Brian's problem is that his opponent scored 65.5 points, for a Monday deficit of 64.5 points. That'll happen when your opponent runs out Tim Lincecum, and you run out Rick Porcello. For Brian's efforts, we will also be setting him up with a subscription to Heater.

Thanks to everyone who entered!

Posted by John Burnson at 10:50am

This is Page 1 of 1 THT Fantasy Focus pages

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Friday, July 31, 2009

Moves with some fantasy relevance

Moves with minimal fantasy relevance

Primary pieces

Collateral damage

Orioles Bullpen:

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The results

Quick takeaways

Quick glossary

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Fallout: Ryan Garko

Fallout: Travis Ishikawa

Fallout: John Bowker

Fallout: The Indians infield

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Friday, July 24, 2009

Thursday, July 23, 2009

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

He has pitched in how many consecutive games?

Potential problems

Concluding thoughts

Monday, July 20, 2009

Zach Duke

J.A. Happ

Conclusion

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Friday, July 17, 2009

Thursday, July 16, 2009

HR/FB instability

Anecdotal evidence and precision

Wednesday, July 15, 2009

Catcher: Matt Wieters

1B: John Bowker

2B: Kelly Johnson

3B: Garrett Atkins

SS: Stephen Drew

OF: Chris Young

OF: Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes

OF: A few more

SP: Francisco Liriano and David Price

RP: Chad Qualls and Huston Street

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

Catcher: Kelly Shoppach

First base: David Ortiz

Second base: Howie Kendrick

Shortstop: J.J. Hardy

Third base: Edwin Encarnacion

Outfield: Seth Smith and Chris Dickerson

Starting pitcher: David Price

Relief pitcher: Phil Hughes

Monday, July 13, 2009

Parameters

Results

So where has this theory come from?

Study caveats

2009 participants

Catcher: Chris Iannetta

First base: Hank Blalock

Second base: Ian Stewart

Shortstop: Jimmy Rollins

Third base: Chipper Jones

Outfield - Nick Markakis and Denard Span

Starting pitcher: Ricky Nolasco

Closer: J.P. Howell

Saturday, July 11, 2009

Friday, July 10, 2009

Simple xBABIP tool download

Simple xBABIP tool explanation by Chris Dutton

Concluding thoughts

Thursday, July 09, 2009

Alfredo Aceves (and Joba)

Phil Hughes