THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:37am

Playing for keeps (Part 2)

Last week, I began a series reviewing some players whose values have shifted substantially this year and may be on the keeper bubble, depending where that bubble is located, in strict draft leagues. You can view the first installment here.

For this edition, I’ve made a slight change to nomenclature. It was pointed out in a number of comments that a number of leagues go way deeper into the keeper pool than 60 players, so instead of qualifying the cutoffs subjectively as “shallow” and “deep,” I’m going to keep it objective and just label the cutoffs, “30-deep” and “60-deep.”

For those of you in much deeper pools, I’m considering doing a deeper version of this column sometime in the near future. In the meantime, feel free to suggest players and cut offs for discussion in the comment section.

And, away we go.

Chone Figgins
30-deep: NO
60-deep: NO

Chone Figgins does have a few things going for him. We know he can score a bunch of runs and steal a bunch of bases. His walk rate has also been trending upwards basically his whole career, which leads to more opportunities to steal bases and score runs. As of my writing this, only Albert Pujols has scored more runs and only four players in all of baseball have swiped more bases.

As for the bad news, Figgins has also been hurt two of the past three years and his skill set, especially his lack of power, leaves him victim to the whims of BABIP. Figgins traditionally brings an underrated attribute to fantasy teams in his versatility, but this year he has played third base almost exclusively, which means he will most likely lose his MI-eligibility next year. Granting health, he’s virtually guaranteed to be a stud in runs and stolen bases, and if luck is on his side he could be very helpful in average (especially because he’ll probably get 600 or more at-bats). However, he’s a total liability in the power categories, especially at a corner spot.

All things considered, he’s basically a poor man’s Ichiro with less attractive eligibility. As an MI, I could see keeping him in the 60-plus pool, but as a corner infielder, I couldn’t do it.

Dan Haren
30-deep: BORDERLINE
60-deep: YES

I’m a believer. Is there anybody who shouldn’t be? I thought coming into this year, and even more so coming into 2008, Haren was a great value because he was quite probably in the Webb, Sabathia, Halladay class, but his price was a bit lower. Well, that won’t be the case anymore. The walk rate had always been great, but the past two years it’s been incredible. Like Halladay, Haren is keep-able in a shallow pool, though personally, I don’t think I’d keep any pitcher other than Lincecum or Santana in a 10- or 12-team, three-keeper league. If you have a similarly worthy hitter, I’d recommend keeping the bat, but Haren is reliable to be elite.

Matt Holliday
30-deep: YES
60-deep: YES

Matt Holliday looked like he may have been this year’s Manny Ramirez before getting cold over the past two weeks. Still, his acquisition basically locked down a division championship for the Cardinals. The deal also freed a fantasy stud from the purgatory that is Oakland. I was very pessimistic when he went to Oakland because of the ballpark, the line-up, and their organizational reluctance to run and decided to just flat-out avoid him in 2009 drafts.

Those concerns are all things of the past. He won’t be the Holliday of Coors, but at 29, there’s no reason to think he won’t be a top-30 player for a few years to come. Hitting behind some guy named Albert doesn’t hurt either.

Torii Hunter
30-deep: NO
60-deep: NO

Every player has a career year, or even two. Torii Hunter is a very high quality major league baseball player who can boast a fine career. If you owned him this year, congratulations. He can often slip and become a very nice, affordable 20/20 type. Next year somebody will overpay. That person should not be you.

Raul Ibanez
30-deep: NO
60-deep: NO

Sure, that’s a great ballpark to hit in and a great line-up to be a part of, but ditto Torii Hunter.

Adam Jones
30-deep: NO
60-deep: NO

In April and May, we saw a glimpse of what Jones might become. After that scorching start, he’s been a mix of brutal (June and August) and pedestrian (July). To quantify this a bit more, as of my writing this, April and May represent 36 percent of Jones’ total games, but 49, 58, and 51 percent of his runs, homers, and RBIs, respectively.

When considering keepers, I often consider the worst case scenario. In order for me to feel safe about recommending Jones, I’d have to be able to foresee ways for Jones to maintain his value if the power and average drop. He hasn’t stolen more than three bases in a month. Between the unremarkable steal total and the awful strikeout-to-walk ratio, I see more red lights than green.

Jones could really break out next year or settle more firmly into being a complimentary player. Personally, I wouldn’t be surprised if Jones re-enacts the disappointments of Alex Rios. I’d let somebody else find out who the real Adam Jones is.

Joe Mauer
30-deep: NO
60-deep: YES

Mauer is just a great young hitter. He has a great contact rate and good plate discipline. Perhaps this year’s power is a bit fluky, especially because his fly ball rate hasn’t changed drastically. Regardless, his relatively high doubles rate has previously indicated that the power potential is there. In his mid-20s, he’ll begin to show it. I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect 30+ homer seasons from Mauer, but 20 seems like a sensible neighborhood. He should also continue to hit .320+ like clockwork.

Even with all that optimism, I’m still wary of keeping catchers in shallow leagues for strategic reasons. If the worst-case scenario is ending up with the 10th-best catcher, I wouldn’t take him in the top 30. The deeper the league, the better the justification for keeping an elite backstop.

Aramis Ramirez
30-deep: NO
60-deep: YES

When Aramis has been on the field, he’s consistently produced at a level worthy of consideration inside the top 30 and has been drafted accordingly. However, even excluding this season, which has been highly compromised by injuries, Ramirez has only averaged about 140 games per season over the previous five. With a keeper pool of 50 or 60, he’s too good to dismiss, especially because third base isn’t as deep as it once was. Most important, 140 games of Aramis Ramirez will produce fifth round value. There’s too much risk for the shallow end though. Aramis Ramirez is in Chipper Jones territory, you should draft him expecting 480–520 at-bats.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:37am

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Qualls down, Gutierrez up?

With Arizona closer Chad Qualls dislocating his kneecap in tonight's game, the D'Backs will need a new closer. I'd endorse Juan Gutierrez as the first pickup, but you might want to keep an eye on Esmerling Vazquez and Clay Zavada. Definitely listen to what the D'Backs say over the next 24 hours, as this isn't a terribly clear cut situation.

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:14pm

Clone Wars: Raul Ibanez and Andre Ethier

Predicting breakouts are the key to fantasy success and these two outfielders have been the key to many teams in 2009. Raul Ibanez should have been expected to grow increase his power after moving to the bandbox that is Citizens Bank Park, but his first half was beyond anyone's expectations. Across the country Andre Ethier was expected to grow with Manny Ramirez back in LA, but a season on pace for 30 homers in Dodgers Stadium wasn't one many expected.

                   R         HR        RBI       SB     AVG       BB%       K%        HR/F%     BABIP
Raul Ibanez        72        27        79         4     0.278     8.70%    22.80%    18.90%     0.299
Andre Ethier       77        27        87         5     0.286    10.70%    19.90%    16.40%     0.308

Raul Ibanez

Looking at his 162 game averages, you should pretty much know what to expect from Ibanez. He averages 23 homers, 84 runs, 95 RBIs, four steals and a .285 average. He has consistently been at those numbers for eight seasons and only really missed them in 2004 when he missed 37 games due to a hamstring strain. That consistency made his first half that much more amazing. He had 22 homers at the All-Star break, which would have been his fifth highest total for a full season.

The second half has not been as nice to Ibanez. Even with a short DL stint in the first half, he set career records. Since the All-Star game though his OPS has fallen to a dismal .708 from his first half 1.015. According to HitTracker he has 10 "just enough" homers, which is 37 percent of his homers and above the league average of "just enough" homers.

Some regression had to be expected, but the disappointing part is the drop in contact rate. His strikeout rate went from a solid 20 percent in the first half to 27.8 percent in the second. His contact rate could be explained by pitchers altering their approach when facing Ibanez. His walk rate has also risen from 7.6 percent in the first half to just over 10 percent in the second. The number of plate appearances is small for evaluating BB%, but could show he is getting less to work with.

Even with the regression he is still on pace to beat his averages in all five categories. He could also beat his career high in homers as ZiPS has him at 33 home runs, matching his career high. If you drafted Ibanez you got your moneys worth and more, but he isn't the guys with the OPS of 1.015 from the first half for sure.

Andre Ethier

MLB: AUG 26 Dodgers at Rockies
August 26, 2009: Dodgers outfielder Andre Ethier during a regular season game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. The Dodgers beat the Rockies 6-1. Ethier had two homeruns in the game. (Icon/SMI)

Ethier has shown great improvement each season, but the growth this year has been amazing. Hitting half his games in Dodger Stadium was supposed to limit him to around 20 homers. Suprisingly not only did his power improve, but most of that power is being shown at home. His OPS split so far is 1.024 at home and .796 on the road. This split is mainly because he has 18 homers at home and only nine on the road. This split has largely been consistent throughout his young career as his career OPS is .915 at home and .817 on the road.

Looking at his numbers at HitTracker you can see his numbers are a bit more encouraging as well. He has only eight homers classified as "just enough," or just 29 percent of his homer total. That is close to the league average and makes his total much more reliable looking forward.

While his strikeout and walk rate have stayed fairly solid, his fly ball rate has climbed, as has his HR/F. His fly ball rate is up from 32 percent in 2008 to 41 percent this year. That has been a large factor in his power growth this year, but the hits have coming largely from his line drive rate.

This drop in line drive rate has seemed to effect his BABIP, which has gone from .336 last year to .308 this season. This change could continue to keep his batting average closer to .285 than the .305 of last season. This isn't a large drop, but could effect his final stat totals. If the change continues to add an extra 10 homers I think most managers would take the 10-15 point drop in average.

Conclusion

When 2009 ends these two will have final lines that make them look like twins. The truth is though that Ibanez, besides being 10 years older than Ethier, is playing much further over his head. This isn't to say Ibanez will be worthless in 2010, but it's much more likely he returns to his 162 game average than the pace he had in the first half of this season. Ethier on the other hand is entering his prime seasons and showing excellent power growth. A regression in his FB% could drop his power next year, but the amount of power at Dodger Stadium is very encouraging for his future.

It will be tough to predict where Ibanez goes in 2010 drafts, as many doubt he could do anything like this again. Ethier on the other hand will go higher in drafts based on his age and future ability. Both may become overvalued in drafts, but have solid value for the owners who draft them.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 1:36am

Friday, August 28, 2009

Joke time

Time for some funny ha-ha's.

1. Angel Pagan (CF)
2. Wilson Valdez (SS)
3. Daniel Murphy (1B)
4. Jeff Francoeur (RF)
5. Cory Sullivan (LF)
6. Fernando Tatis (3B)
7. Omir Santos (C)
8. Anderson Hernandez (2B)
9. Tim Redding (P)

Ba-da-ba-ch!

Actually, I'm not sure what's funnier: that lineup, or the fact that it actually scored 10 runs in... no, faithful readers who are graciously putting up with this Mets fan's tirade, not two months... a single game.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:58am

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable link

This week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable was hosted by FantasyPros911. The question:

I predict that Ubaldo Jimenez will be a top seven fantasy pitcher in 2010. Will I be right?

THT's Rob McQuown stepped up to the plate and answered for us this week. You can find everyone's answer here.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:56am

Waiver Wire: AL

Matt LaPorta | Cleveland | OF
YTD: .250/.303/.426
True Talent: .246/.319/.431
Next Week Forecast: 1.0 HR, 3 R, 4 RBI, .248 BA, 0.2 SB
Matt LaPorta played first base and outfield in Triple-A this year, and posted a .231 ISO after posting a .288 ISO in Double-A in 2008. His Ct% was 83% in Triple-A this year (up from 79% in 2008), and he walked 11% of the time, so growth in AVG and OBP is expected. He'll be 25 in 2010, and the only real question is whether he'll settle in as a 30-HR per season player, or closer to 40 HR/yr.

Brandon Morrow | Mariners | SP
YTD: 8.8 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 5.28 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
When we last visited our hero, he'd just lost the closer's role. He was subsequently demoted, re-tooled back into a starting pitcher (as had been the plan pre-season), and has since spent eight starts scaring Triple-A hitters with his wildness and 95 mph fastball (average velocity). Morrow has great stuff, great pedigree, and reportedly is a smart player. But even in this ballpark with this defense, he's not going to do much good for a fantasy team until he brings the walks down under 4.5 BB/9 IP (currently 6.1 BB/9 IP).

Randy Ruiz | Toronto | DH
YTD: .315/.362/.556
True Talent: .247/.302/.414
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .246 BA, 0.1 SB
Don't expect another SB from the lumbering DH, as Ruiz's steal was just his sixth in six years. But Triple-A can't contain him anymore, as he's hit .320 each of the past two seasons, slugging about .550 in almost 1,000 combined PA. His minor-league credentials are actually better than Garrett Jones', but so were Micah Hoffpauir's, and he piffled out quickly this year. Expect MLB pitchers to get ahead of Ruiz soon, but if you desperately need to roll the dice for some power, he's playing every day and has raw strength to spare.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas | C
YTD: .236/.293/.375
True Talent: .250/.322/.303
Next Week Forecast: n/a
With backup Taylor Teagarden hitting a measly .194/.263/.375, the younger “Salty” was in little danger of losing his job due to his lackluster hitting. But his season has become a total washout with his right (throwing) arm being injured, and the extent of its recovery in 2009 uncertain. With the playoffs very much in their reach, the Rangers weren't going to risk such a key position on an iffy medical report, and traded for future HOF catcher Pudge Rodriguez. That makes Salty an easy cut in non-keeper leagues that aren't two-catcher AL-only formats. The best to hope for from him in 2009 is that Texas gets wiped out of the race and Chris Davis flounders again, giving Saltalamacchia some AB at both catcher and 1B, but it's a longshot.

Ian Snell | Mariners | SP
YTD: 5.5 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 5.37 ERA
True Talent: 6.9 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.95 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 W, 4 K, 5.72 ERA
Depressed to the point of contemplating suicide in Pittsburgh, it's hard to imagine a player more in need of a new domicile. TT is very optimistic about a guy who's seen his xFIPs go: 4.96, 4.22, 4.17, 5.04 before 2009, and then 5.18 in Pittsburgh and 6.35 in Seattle. But Snell still has nasty stuff, so if he can throw strikes, perhaps even TT's line will be pessimistic. Speaking of pessimistic, we think the best route to take with his mental illness—for fantasy—is just to view it as if it was an injury: See how he's responding to treatment, and if he reels off some good starts, allow for some cautious optimism that his peak seasons are more representative of what he can do than his “down” years.

Brett Tomko | Oakland | SP
YTD: 5.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.69 ERA
True Talent: 6.2 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.36 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 W, 4 K, 4.39 ERA
That's not a typo—it really says “4.36” for Brett Tomko's “True Talent” ERA. Since Tomko has consistently underperformed his FIP in his 1772 career IP, nudging it upward would be prudent. But his career ERA is just 4.67, and his fastball is still averaging over 92 mph this year at age 36. With Oakland's ballpark, he should be a servicable option down the stretch, though don't expect wins.

Billy Wagner | Boston | RP
YTD: 18.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 0.00 ERA
True Talent: 9.4 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, 3.17 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 Saves, 2.95 ERA
An unusually large percentage of public mixed leagues have seen the best lefty closer of all time get scooped up. But it's probably a wasted roster space in all but deeper AL leagues. Sure, he'll help your ratios if he's healthy, but he won't be getting saves in Boston. Also, they will coddle him to make sure he's available in the playoffs, when they will really need him. Even if holds are a category, there are probably better options available.

Ty Wigginton | Baltimore | INF
YTD: .259/.306/.387
True Talent: .271/.330/.457
Next Week Forecast: 0.9 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .271 BA, 0.2 SB
Depending on eligibility requirements, Wigginton could be quite versatile. He's played all four infield positions and LF. With Huff's departure, he is almost playing every day now, mostly at the infield corners. In one of the strangest changes from form in recent years, this consistent lefty-basher has been horrible against LHP this season (.239/.314/.303), while maintaining his usual line against RHP. Expect that to correct, and his “True Talent” line to be realized, making him an adequate stopgap in mixed leagues, and a decent starter for AL-only leagues.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am

Waiver Wire: NL

Matt Diaz | Atlanta | OF
YTD: .314/.381/.496
True Talent: .292/.340/.440
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 4 Runs, 4 RBI, .295 BA, 0.6 SB
The knock on Diaz has always been his struggles against righties (career .728 OPS vs. RHP, .893 OPS vs. LHP), something that hasn't changed in 2009 (.790 OPS vs. RHP, .990 vs. LHP). What has changed is his PT, thanks to injuries to Ryan Church and Nate McLouth. Diaz has played against everyone the past two weeks, and has hit well, but stats don't lie, and he'll regress. Plus, Church is healthy, with McLouth not far behind, on target for an Aug. 31 return, at which point Diaz will slide back into a platoon, making him suitable for 10-team NL leagues and only the deepest of mixed leagues.

Eric O. Young | Colorado | 2B/OF
YTD: .375/.375/.375
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
If you remember his dad, E.Y. Jr. brings much the same game: excellent speed (303 SB in five minor-league seasons), a decent batting eye (.71 BB/K in minors), but not much pop (.293/.385/.416). He's here to replace Dexter Fowler, who hit the DL, and his likely 2B eligibility in many leagues coupled with his steals makes him an immediate add. The only question is how long he'll play: Fowler shouldn't be out much longer than the minimum, and Carlos Gonzalez's hand won't keep him out all that long. He's likely to remain with the Rockies once rosters expand but may be on the bench then. Grab Young in any league where you need steals, but don't lean on him.

Carlos Ruiz | Philadelphia | C
YTD: .231/.332/.396
True Talent: .248/.334/.380
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .244 BA, 0.1 SB
Ruiz's .289/.354/.488 line in 2006 is starting to look like a statistical anomaly, because he's given back gains across the board every year since. The puzzle is that his secondary stats have generally improved—his K/BB grew from .68 to 1.18 in that span, and his contact rate also ticked upwards from 85 to 88%. The answer lies in his hit trajectories, as his LD% fell from 19.4% to 16.8% and his GB% rose from 46.8% to 54.3%. He's reversed some of those trends this season, dropping his GB% to 42.4% while maintaining a steady 16.2 LD% and retaining that 1.16 BB/K and 88% contact rate. The result has been the .259/.359/.500 line he's put up over the last month. True Talent tells you that he's about where he should be overall, meaning he's likely to stabilize. You can ride him for a while to see if the hot streak lasts, but keep in mind that TT pegs him as worthy of only 14-team NL leagues and very deep mixed leagues.

Brendan Ryan | St. Louis | SS
YTD: .297/.342/.403
True Talent: .272/.326/.374
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .275 BA, 0.5 SB
When Julio Lugo was added, it looked like Ryan's days were numbered. But LaRussa has played Lugo at 2B instead, partly because Ryan has been so hot, hitting .362/.422/.500 in the past month. The key may be that Ryan's hitting leadoff or No. 2, in front of Albert Pujols, a great place to hit. The spike in power is awfully strange for a guy who's traditionally been a singles hitter, but they've come mostly via doubles and triples, meaning he's leveraging his above-average speed to his advantage. True Talent tells you he's going to taper off, which you'd expect from a guy who's had a career .265/.326/.345 line. That beneficial lineup spot may help him beat TT projections, but not by much. Once he cools, he'll be good for 12-team NL leagues and 20-team mixed leagues.

Charlie Haeger | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 5.8 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 1.93 ERA
True Talent: 5.5 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.24 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 4.63 ERA
Aren't knuckleballers fun to watch? Hitters and umpires don't know where the ball is going—and neither does the pitcher. That's always something to keep in mind with the purveyors of this dying art; the knuckler is a feel pitch, and they could lose their feel at any time. That's where those lousy K/BB projections come from, and True Talent tells you he's gonna lose his feel sometime soon. Pitching for the Dodgers helps him corral wins, and Haeger's been around for a little while (he turns 26 next month) but not enough to get any consistency. If you like playing roulette, you'll like Haeger, since he'll find the black with a baseball about as often as that other little while ball does. More sensible owners will stay away, particularly with Padilla in the fold and Kuroda on the mend.

Garrett Mock | Washington | SP
YTD: 7.8 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 5.23 ERA
True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 4.85 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 Wins, 5 K, 4.28 ERA
Mock carries the same label as many Nats players: has talent/potential but plays for Washington. Mock's strikeout numbers make him enticing, and True Talent tells you that he should continue to subtract from his ERA. The control is a tad worrisome, as is the name of the team on his jersey, but Mock's got a bit of skills in the K department. He's not a bad addition for a team that only needs to advance in Ks, and can absorb the occasional bad outing expected from a guy in only his first full season in the bigs. Ten-team NL-only leagues can find some value here, but deeper mixed-league teams should only take him on if they don't mind the risk.

Daniel McCutchen | Pittsburgh | SP
YTD: 6.9 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 3.47 ERA
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
McCutchen's name is one that has been bandied about for September callups by the Pirates, and more than likely, he'll make The Show. He's not a top-notch prospect for them, but he does offer some very nice skills. He gets that sweet K/BB ratio not from his borderline strikeout skills, but from low walk rates (1.9 BB/9 in his minor-league career). He may not be quite good enough for you to think about adding him as a potential mixed-league keeper, but he could still pick up some wins for the Bucs down the stretch with a handful of Ks. If he's not been rostered already, NL keeper leagues should watch those September callups to see if he's there, while other owners can gamble on those Ks or watch him for a start or two to see how he does.

Brett Myers | Philadelphia | RP
YTD: 6.5 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 4.66 ERA
True Talent: 7.5 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 4.19 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Among the potential fixes for the problem called "Brad Lidge," Myers is on the comeback trail and could take over at the back end of the 'pen, since Philly's rotation is fairly strong. Myers has closed before, and has looked very good in his minor-league outings. And Madson has struggled in his save opportunities, blowing five chances, so Myers is a really good gamble for teams scrapping for saves and a definite insurance plan for Lidge owners. At the very least, True Talent shows you he'll offer some Ks and a decent enough ERA that you won't regret the add.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Everything’s bigger in September (Part 2)

In part one we looked at the prospects of Chris Young, Chris Davis, and Mat Gamel. Today, we've got new batch of players to dissect and discuss:

Kila Ka'aihue

Kila Kaaihue is no secret. The 25-year-old MLB ready first baseman is once again proving he is ready for the major leagues, flashing his polished skills in Triple-A.

+--------+-------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+-----+----+
| Season | Level | AB  | R  | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   | BB% | K% |
+--------+-------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+-----+----+
| 2008   | AA    | 287 | 64 | 26 |  79 |  3 | 0.314 |  22 | 14 |
| 2008   | AAA   | 114 | 27 | 11 |  21 |  0 | 0.316 |  17 | 23 |
| 2009   | AAA   | 392 | 76 | 17 |  54 |  0 | 0.265 |  19 | 20 |
+--------+-------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+-----+----+

Although his production dropped off some this this year, Kila still showed his elite on-base ability. Given major league at bats, he could hit in the .280s with decent pop.

Jacobs returning to the dugout after hitting a home run, the one thing he's good at. (Icon/SMI)

The player standing most in Kila's way for plate appearances is Mike Jacobs (cue laugh track). Owner of a .321 wOBA (the MLB average is .330), Jacobs should be left stranded along the side of the road on the next road trip, and the Royals should then pick up Kila and have him play. There is no reason for a 30 year old with limited upside to block a burgeoning prospect, especially on a team not fighting for a playoff spot.

Hopefully the Royals see it my way and give Kila enough at bats to make him fantasy-worthy. In AL-only leagues and 16+ team mixed leagues I would add him given the chance they do.

Hector Rondon

Hector Rondon is a 21-year-old pitcher in the Indians system who curiously seems to get better as the Indians promote him to higher levels. See for yourself:

+------+-------+-----+----+------+------+------+
| Year | Level | IP  | W  | ERA  | K/9  | BB/9 |
+------+-------+-----+----+------+------+------+
| 2007 |     A | 136 |  7 | 4.37 | 7.48 | 1.79 |
| 2008 |    A+ | 145 | 11 | 3.60 | 9.00 | 2.61 |
| 2007 |    AA |  72 |  7 | 2.75 | 9.13 | 2.00 |
| 2009 |   AAA |  53 |  4 | 2.68 | 8.39 | 1.68 |
+------+-------+-----+----+------+------+------+

Considering the current state of the Indians and their rotation consisting of stars like Jeremy Sowers and Fausto Carmona, they might want to give their prized Venezuelan a taste of the majors in September. Armed with a mid-90s fastball and a complimentary change-up, Rondon can rack up the strikeouts while also, more importantly, allowing few free passes.

For those in AL-only leagues, Rondon may be worth a look if given starts against favorable opponents.

Lightning Round

Aaron Poreda is a player I would stay away from. At the moment he is experiencing a troubling control problem, and while a spacious Petco may limit his home runs, it won't help him pitch in the strike zone. He is still only 22 years old and now in a great pitcher's park so I still like him long term.

The frustrating Brandon Morrow has not pitched that well since returning to Triple-A, so even if the Mariners bring him back up for the final month, I'd feel comfortable letting another team scoop him up.

When September comes around it might be another chance for talented Marlins prospect Cameron Maybin to get a shot in the majors. Maybin's got speed and some power, so those in NL-only leagues should take a look. There is a chance the Marlins do not call up him, I should warn.

Another player for NL-only leaguers, Jeff Clement, could see some playing time at first base and catcher on Ryan Doumit's off days. If your current catcher gets hurt or it is a really deep NL-only league and you are looking for anyone with playing time, Clement could make a good speculative add. He may return to his former top-prospect hitting ways, you never know.

Posted by Paul Singman at 3:39am

Looking forward: Some of the more prominent prospects of 2009

With the 2009 season nearly in the books, it's time to analyze some of the more prominent prospects of the year and look into my crystal ball in order to see what 2010 has in store.

Matt Wieters - His lackluster first season has not swayed me. Wieters should be among the top tier catchers in the league next year. But his draft status may not reflect that. Take advantage in all fantasy formats. This kids all-around bat is too good to be held down for long.

Carlos Santana - Legit through and through, Santana's bat could catapult him to elite status in time. And the baseball world may get a glimpse of it in 2010. Despite his impressive Double-A season stat line, personally, I still want to see more contact ability and a bulkier batting average before I pay my man crush membership dues.

Brian Matusz - I severely underestimated Baltimore's front office. Back in May, I was the guy complaining about Matusz's High-A purgatory. A few months later, I'm witnessing a young man trying to hold his own against the big boys. While he is struggling with his pursuit, Matusz's potential is undeniable. He has truly become one of the elite pitching prospects in the game.

Justin Smoak - I have been among Smoak's most aggressive supporters, all the while keeping in mind that his power has not yet developed. And it still hasn't. I drooled over his Double-A dominance, but his game still has holes; most prominently that pesky and alarming lack of power, especially from a first baseman. Smoak will spend more time in Triple-A next year before he gets his full time big league opportunity.

Travis Snider - In 2009 Snider has shown that he can be a productive big league regular, and he has plenty more untapped potential beyond that. The 21-year-old will have an unchallenged slot in Toronto's lineup from the outset of 2010. Expect improved numbers across the board and a hit of the stardom that could follow.

Dexter Fowler - Fowler's season has been perplexing. His base stealing and plate discipline skills have come full bloom; but his strikeouts, home runs, and batting average are lagging way behind. This young man has a loaded tool box, and if you have the patience to wait it out, you might just end up with the league's best lead off hitter on your hands.

Michael Stanton - Many have Stanton ranked up there with Jason Heyward and Jesus Montero on top prospect lists. I just cannot justify placing Stanton that high... yet. Make no mistake, the power is there. Unfortunately, his contact skills and plate discipline are not. The big league sluggers that can't hit for a solid batting average make up for it by taking walks. Stanton has a long way to go before he's capable of playing at that level. 2010 will be another learning year.

Martin Perez - This kid has made a huge mark on the prospect world. His stuff is ace-worthy and his control is incredibly advanced for his age. He will spend 2010 in the minors, but we could be looking at the next Felix Hernandez-esque teenage phenom. If Perez hasn't yet been claimed in your keeper league, make his acquisition one of your top priorities this off-season.

Mike Moustakas - In 2008, with his stock slipping, Moustakas reeled off an unreal late season surge. 2009 has seen him struggle once again in the early going, but a late season charge isn't in the cards. He has a long way to go, but he does possess one of the quickest bats in the minor leagues, which will aid him on his quest for stardom.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:38am

In a sentimental mood

Today I'd like to take a second-cut (in a second-best fashion) at John Burnson's nice article last week on near-sighted fantasy players. In his article, Burnson used two forecasting systems, Marcels, and Near-sighted Marcels (NSM, for short), to find some baseball players for next year that were likely to be overvalued by fantasy players that focused mainly on this year's performance. After reading his article, I was interested in answering some questions: How much worse off are near-sighted fantasy players? And is near-sightedness actually helpful in forecasting certain types of players?

As a reminder, Tom Tango's Marcels forecasting system is intentionally simple (so simple that Marcel the Monkey could do it). It takes a weighted average of a player's last three seasons and regresses it to the mean somewhat. All NSM does is put more weight on a player's more recent performance than Marcels does. Here's the percent weight that each system puts on past performance:

	'08	'07	'06
Marcels	41.6	33.3	25
NSM	80	15	5

How much better or worse is NSM for fantasy? To answer this, I have to make a few adjustments, some of which are harmless while others are necessary but unfortunate. First, I need a metric to measure performance. I'm going to use mean absolute deviation (MAD) (aka mean absolute forecast error). Another possible metric is root mean squared error (RMSE), but that's for another day. I'm going to compare OPSs, since that's what John did in his article and also it saves me a few computational steps. Instead of forecasting 2010 like John did, I'm going to use 2006-2008 to forecast 2009 and compare the forecasts with the actual data we have so far (since I'm using OPS, which is a rate, it doesn't really matter that we haven't completed the season yet).

Next I have to "fantasize" the OPS forecasts and sample. Fantasizing the sample means dropping players that are projected to have too few plate appearances or are projected to perform too poorly to be fantasy relevant in most leagues. For today, I dropped any player with fewer than 200 projected plate appearances or less than a .700 OPS (for these projections I used Marcels only so that I would have a consistent sample across forecasting systems—nothing really changes if you use NSM for this step instead). Alas this introduces the possibility of sample selection bias. I also didn't include players without three years of usable data - just like John did.

Fantasizing the forecasts implies removing the means of each forecast. Player values are based on performance relative to league average—so that is how we should measure the value of our forecast systems (though in this case, the average is a sample average and not a league average). Lastly, I'm going to weight each player by the number of plate appearances he's actually had in 2009 (though this doesn't make a qualitative difference for any result).

So what's the MAD?

	MAD(OPS)
Marcels	81.8
NSM	83.2

Indeed, NSM has a higher MAD and thus a worse performance than Marcels. But the difference is numerically negligible and not statistically significant. The difference is not statistically significant because, frankly, reweighting doesn't do all that much compared to the overall forecast errors that are inherent in either system. Both NSM and Marcels "regress to the mean" of league performance identically- a step which probably accounts for a large part of either system's success.

I will follow Burnson in calling the difference between the forecasts for each player as that player's "sentiment". A positive sentiment means NSM is more optimistic about the stat than is Marcels. One thing I wondered was how sentiment varied by age and whether there was any variation in forecast performance by age.

Age	Sentiment	MAD(Marcels)	MAD(NSM)
24	1.4	110	110
25	5.8	79	76
26	7.4	81	88
27	11.0	74	68
28	-1.7	76	78
29	0.0	68	61
30	3.8	102	98
31	-1.7	71	81
32	-3.7	100	114
33	-2.5	75	74
34	-5.0	60	55
35	-4.7	100	102
36	-0.4	118	121
37	4.4	87	88
38	-3.1	098	118

We can see a slight age based pattern here: NSM is sentimental about younger players whereas Marcels is more "nostalgic" about about older players. Interestingly enough, this sentimentality and nostalgia are somewhat appropriate. NSM does a little better at forecasting the younger players while Marcels does better with the older ages. In neither case is the difference statistically significant though.

What about variation by player performance? Is NSM more sentimental about better players? As we can see in the scatterplot with the fitted line, the answer is a qualified yes (again there's too much noise in the data for statistical significance). This isn't terribly surprising. For NSM to be sentimental about a player, that player must have done particularly well in 2008 relative to his 2007 and 2006 campaigns. Some of this is luck perhaps, but to the extent that any of the improved performance is persistent, this luck/skill will carry over into 2009 as well.

To conclude: Being sentimental can hurt you, but being a sentimental monkey (that is using Marcels with different weights) doesn't hurt you that much and actually may help you with young players. That said, sentimental monkeys are pretty smart since they regress to the mean. Tango made his monkey fairly simple-minded and that includes his 5/4/3 weighting system. In his explanation of Marcels, Tango does not explain where he came up with the particular weights. Probably, in order to keep it simple, it is just a rule of thumb. So it would be interesting to see what the optimal weighting system would be (i.e. the one that provided the best forecasting performance using a certain metric). It might not be all that far from NSM.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 3:36am

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Player Profile: Miguel Montero

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies in Denver

Miguel Montero has been a pleasant surprise this season, posting a .292/.346/.487 line thus far in 2009 while seizing the Arizona Diamondbacks’ starting catcher’s job. Despite his success this season, there are conflicting opinions on who Miguel Montero really is.

If you have a long memory, which many fantasy owners do, you’d remember “Miguel Montero” from 2007 and 2008' especially the ’07 version.

Coming into 2009, Montero had two lackluster seasons under his belt, with a .224/.292/.397 line in 2007 and .255/.330/.435 in 2008. While 2007 was horrendous, 2008 was good enough to inject some life into Montero's career. With the offensive abyss that is the MLB catcher, a .765 OPS is pretty good for a major league regular, albeit not good enough for a fantasy one.

There was more than meets the eye in his 2008 season, however. At first glance, his 26.6 strikeout percentage was serious cause for concern. Any hitter who strikes out in a quarter of his at-bats, yet doesn’t hit for lots of power, will post sub-par batting averages. With a 22.2 line drive percentage, 26.6 K%, and .323 BABIP, his .255 batting average seemed about what to expect from him. However, a deeper look at his contact and swing rates suggest that Montero may have been a bit unlucky with his K's.

In 2008, Montero had a 79 percent contact rate, with a 50.9 swing percentage. Neither figure is ideal for a hitter, as you'd prefer a contact percentage in the 80s, as well as a little more selectivity. While a 50+ swing percentage is certainly high, it decreases the chances for strikeouts because the at-bat will end earlier. More swings equals more balls in play and a higher batting average.

Given his plate discipline stats, he should have had a strikeout rate close to 20 percent, as opposed to his poor rate of 26.6. With decreased strikeouts, his batting average should have been much better, possibly around .275 with an .810 OPS—a much better line than was actually posted.

The 2009 season has been more indicative of Montero’s abilities at the dish, as he holds a very good .292/.346/.833 line with 12 HR in 337 plate appearances. But how much of this performance is "real"?

First off, the power is legitimate. Montero has shown good power for a couple years now, and could have a 20-HR season in his future. He has shown good power in the majors, with 27 homers in 805 plate appearances.

His minor league home run totals are very good as well. He slugged 11 in 449 plate appearances in 2004, 26 in 519 PA in 2005, and 17 in 491 PA in 2006. Make sure you put a discount on that 2005 home run total, however, as they were largely an effect of playing in Lancaster of the California League, a hitter’s haven.

Perhaps just as important as the power is his ability to hit to the opposite field. Shown above is Montero’s hit chart at Chase Field in Arizona, courtesy of mlb.com. Notice how he has numerous doubles to left and left-center, with deep flies mixed in. Also, notice all the singles to left. Great opposite field hitter.

The one criticism I have is that he needs to improve his overall skills pulling the ball. He has too many groundball outs between first and second. However, as evidenced by his power to the opposite field, if he can start pulling the ball with authority, he’ll be incredible.

His pull power is good as well, though it could be improved upon, as evidenced by his struggles against high and low inside pitches this season. Is it possible he figures it out and starts pulling the ball? Absolutely. But, there is no guarantee that this will happen, and Mark Teahen is the best example of this tendency.

Still, you should absolutely watch out for this trend next year in the event you have an opportunity to trade for him. If he starts lifting flies to right and cuts down on the grounders, he’ll eclipse 20 home runs, with a chance at 25. A .300 hitting catcher with 20-plus home runs? Sign me up.

Also contributing to Montero’s turnaround this season is his improved abilities against breaking pitches. While he was already good against sliders (1.37 wSL/C) in 2008, he has improved in 2009 (3.49 wSL/C).

More important has been his improvement against curveballs, which gave him fits last season, as his wCB/C have improved from -3.21 in 2008 to 0.01 in 2009. This is a very important improvement, as Montero is sure to see fewer fastballs for the rest of this season and next, as he has morphed from a below-average fastball hitter into an above-average one. He’ll see more breaking pitches and off-speed stuff in the future, which he will be more than ready to take care of.

While Montero has mashed righties this season at a .291/.350/.504 clip, with 12 home runs and 46 strikeouts in 254 at-bats, the verdict is still out for Montero against lefties. Montero has posted a respectable .296/.328/.407 line (not bad) against lefties, but with just one home run in 54 at-bats, with six strikeouts.

The strikeouts are a very important aspect of Montero’s outlook against southpaws. While he has had success in 2009, he struck out 10 times in 28 at-bats in 2008. Though Montero could very well have improved against lefties this season (and been better than he showed in 2008), the sample sizes are too small to make any meaningful determinations. One of the two seasons was the outlier, and the verdict is still out as to what his true abilities are against lefties.

In the end, however, it doesn’t affect him as much as it would if he were a non-catcher, as his weakness can be masked by the fact that he can sit and get his scheduled rest against left handers.

For Montero this season, what you see is what you get. While the batting average is the main surprise this year, if he can maintain the improved contact percentage and stays aggressive at the plate, the .290 average seems in line with his peripherals, with a slight chance for him to hit .300.

This season, Montero profiles as a league-average catcher in 12-team mixed leagues, with good power, batting average, and decent run and RBI totals. His only drawback is that he offers absolutely no speed. Few do at catcher, however, so this shouldn’t be too much of a drawback.

Montero is available in a large number of leagues, especially those that require just one catcher. Although he has been a big surprise this season, don’t be stunned when he keeps it up for the rest of this season and next. He could fly under the radar next year when other owners remember 2007 and 2008 and think ’09 is a fluke—good thing you’ll know better.

If you like taking catchers late in the back half of the draft, make sure to add Miguel Montero to your target list. This season should be the last he flies under the radar, and next year, if he performs as well as he has this year, the lid will be blown off. Get him on your team if he's on free agency and don't miss out next season. He's a great fantasy catcher at a low price.

Posted by Mike Silver at 2:15am

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Eric Young set loose

With Dexter Fowler on the DL for a few weeks with a bruised right knee, the Rockies called up speedster Eric Young from Triple-A and Tuesday night he started in center, batting lead off. Young is a player I talked about briefly in this article, and for those link lazy I'll reproduce the chart of his minor league stolen base totals here:

+------+-------+----+
| Year | Level | SB |
+------+-------+----+
| 2006 |     A | 87 |
| 2007 |    A+ | 73 |
| 2008 |    AA | 46 |
| 2009 |   AAA | 54 |
+------+-------+----+

As you can see, Young is a literal Ferrari on the base paths, and he has the potential to hit for a solid average as well. In NL-only leagues Young should be scooped up and also in most mixed leagues, depending on your need for stolen bases. If nothing else he can be used as a trade chip since a better steals opportunity is not likely to come along.

Almost comically, Young was caught stealing on his first attempt of his major league career but he should find more success running in the future.

As a last note, Seth Smith is also a player who you also might want to own while Fowler's out since a couple more starts are likely headed his way each week over this time period.

Posted by Paul Singman at 11:49pm

Stretch sleeper: Scott Richmond

Looking for a starting pitcher to help you reach your league's innings max? Jays SP Scott Richmond could be as good a choice as any available on your waiver wire (I'd strongly consider Scott Baker as well). His 4.09 ERA might have already created a believer in your league, but if not, his 4.10 LIPS ERA backs it up. While his extreme fly ball tendencies limit his ceiling a bit, he is striking out over 8 batters per 9 innings with above average control, and it's possible that could end up going even higher. That's because, what I hadn't noticed about him until today, is how many swinging strikes he's inducing (which has been shown to correlate well with strikeouts). USA Today's Steve Gardner displayed this table today of the league-leaders in swinging strike rate:

+---------------------------------+-----+
| PITCHER                         | SS% |
+---------------------------------+-----+
| Rich Harden, Cubs               | 25% |
| Scott Richmond, Toronto         | 20% |
| Francisco Liriano, Minnesota    | 20% |
| Ryan Dempster, Cubs             | 19% |
| Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco | 19% |
| Javier Vazquez, Atlanta         | 19% |
+---------------------------------+-----+

That's some elite company. Richmond may not dazzle with ridiculous velocity, but his fastball does have ridiculous movement (nearly a foot of rise!) and he mixes it in with some solid secondary offerings. If you've been scouring the waiver wire for a pitcher to help down the stretch, you might not need to look much further.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:45pm

Time to say goodbye to some worthy players

The season is about to head into the final month. Anybody competing in a league that allows daily transactions should take a hard look at their roster for potential cuts.

In the final month, justifying a player's roster slot becomes more difficult. Even players who you may expect to perform better than what’s available on the waiver wire should be subject to close scrutiny. Is your team better off cutting a player for the opportunity to use that player’s roster spot for a stream of alternative available players with good daily matchups?

You might see Milton Bradley, for example, as offering better potential than anybody available on your waiver wire. But how much better will Bradley be than the pool of players who are not rostered in your league? If the answer is “just a little,” he probably deserves to be cut.

Here’s why.

Over the course of a season, under a large sample size of games, you can feel confident that a player projected above the masses will indeed perform up to those expectations. (It won’t always happen, but it will more times than not.) But with fewer games to play, the rule of small sample sizes dictates that practically anything can happen, and player performance will not always match skill level. Accordingly, one should be less confident that a projection will bear out.

That’s the first reason.

Of course, a smaller degree of confidence doesn’t mean no confidence. If you see Player X as being better than Waiver Wire Players A, B, and C, there remains a reasonable probability that Player X will outperform many of those available players. But you still may wish to cut him.

In many leagues, teams find themselves below the maximum games allowed per position or find they have a number of innings to yet pitch. A team holding a player who barely outperforms the waiver wire pool may wish to analyze whether it would get more production from players who contribute every day. After all, major league baseball clubs have off days and on those days, unless your league allows for a very deep bench of reserves, you’re probably sacrificing an opportunity to have a player with a good matchup in your active lineup to hold onto a player who isn’t playing.

This becomes especially true for pitchers as they only play once or twice per week. It sometimes helps to work backward.

For example, last week, the San Diego Padres announced they would be shutting down young phenom Mat Latos after just two more starts. Both of those starts are away from the pitching haven, Petco Park. Anybody who heard the announcement last Thursday might have asked: Is holding Latos for 10 days and two away starts worth more than opening his roster position for the best 10 spot starts in that intervening time?

A question like this can only be answered by looking at the standings and your league’s positional allowances. A team under their innings pace and with breathing room in ERA and WHIP might wish to take quantity over quality. The same is true on the batting end—a team that feels points stability in batting average might look to amass as many games as possible from batters, and thus, more runs, RBIs, steals and home runs.

This advice only applies to daily transactional roto leagues, of course. And we’re brought back to our argument on the confidence factor. With just a month left of baseball, it’s hard to say that a player with a certain skill set is going to have production that matches those skills. What we can say with more confidence is that more games typically means more production.

For a player only barely better than the rest, you may wish to part ways for the above reasons.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:47am

Everything’s bigger in September (Part I)

Hordes of players will be joining the major league ranks on Sept. 1 when rosters expand. I am going to run through some of the bigger names and tell you what type of impact they are likely to have.

Chris Young

In his third MLB season, Arizona outfielder Chris Young has taken a major step backwards. Instead of putting up good power and speed numbers with a poor average, he has produced average power and good speed numbers with a downright abysmal batting average this year.

+--------+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Season | Team    | AB  | R  | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+--------+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| 2007   | D-backs | 569 | 85 | 32 |  68 | 27 | 0.237 |
| 2008   | D-backs | 625 | 85 | 22 |  85 | 14 |	0.248 |
| 2009   | D-backs | 315 | 35 |  7 |  28 | 11 |	0.194 |
+--------+---------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+

Even with a depleted outfield, on Aug. 10 the Diamondbacks decided to send down Young to the minors, where in 10 games he has strutted his stuff, batting .350 with a home run and two steals. Still alarming are his 10 strikeouts in 44 Triple-A plate appearances, so I am skeptical Young will continue to strut when back in the bigs.

Couple that with uncertain playing time—due to Justin Upton and Eric Brynes returning from the DL and Gerardo Parra and Trent Oeltjan staying in the mix—and you've got a situation that seems best to stay away from. Let someone else take a chance on him.

Chris Davis

Another disappointment, Chris Davis, will surely be called up by the contending Rangers. In 44 Triple-A games, Davis has really gotten his act together, batting .333 with six home runs. That home run total is less than you would expect, but intuition tells me he was probably working most on being selective and making contact with pitches than trying to blast them into different area codes.

Davis grits his teeth after striking out. (Icon/SMI)

He was successful in shaving a few percentage points off his K rate to 23.5 percent and most notably doubled his walk rate to 13 percent. When called up, I expect Davis to play well, batting around .250-.260 and hitting as many home runs as his playing time will allow.

He will be battling with Hank Blalock and Andruw Jones for playing time—two hitters batting similar to how Davis will—so Davis should be added mostly in AL-only and deeper (14-plus teams) mixed leagues.

I'm excited for next year and hoping the Rangers send plenty of playing time his way in September; he deserves it.

Mat Gamel

Hyped Brewers prospect Mat Gamel is another youngster looking to have an impact in September. I am skeptical, however, that any impact he will have will be positive.

After a quick start to the season in Triple-A, people were expecting him to win the Brewers' third base job by midseason. However, after a poor major league showing, Gamel found himself back down in the minors after a two-month stint. And since returning to Triple-A, Gamel has looked far from the player who ran over Double-A last year and Triple-A in the beginning of this year. Take a look:

Note: 2009-a represents Gamel's numbers in the minors before getting called to the majors; 2009-b are his numbers after.

+--------+--------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Season | Level  | AB  | R  | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+--------+--------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| 2007   |     A+ | 466 | 78 | 	9 |  60 | 14 | 0.300 |
| 2008   |     AA | 508 | 96 | 19 |  96 |  6 | 0.329 |
| 2009-a |    AAA | 119	| 25 | 	8 |  31 |  0 | 0.336 |
| 2009-b |    AAA | 101	| 10 | 	2 |  14 |  1 | 0.228 |
| 2009   | Majors | 113	| 10 | 	4 |  16 |  1 | 0.239 |
+--------+--------+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+

Those are worrisome numbers over his last 215 at-bats split between the majors and Triple-A, and Gamel's strikeout rate over that span—a whopping 40 percent in the majors and 36 percent in Triple-A since—show that perhaps this 24-year-old third baseman could use a bit more seasoning before he gets truly tasteful.

Other people seem to be more optimistic about Gamel's immediate future than me; let them worry about him.

Concluding thoughts

That's all for now. On Thursday expect to see the breakdown on another 3-4 players. Thanks to Fangraphs for some of the numbers, and a great resource is Matthew Pouliot's breakdown of every team's September call-up situation, both American and National League.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:46am

Monday, August 24, 2009

Fan Scouting Report ‘09

You'll probably be seeing these posts all over the place, but I'm a big fan of Tom Tango's Fan Scouting Report and wanted to post a notice just in case you guys don't hear about it elsewhere. As he's been doing for several years now, Tom is looking for fans to rate the defense of players they've watched. Here's an explanation from him:

Baseball's fans are very perceptive. Take a large group of them, and they can pick out the final standings with the best of them. They can forecast the performance of players as well as those guys with rather sophisticated forecasting engines. Bill James, in one of his later Abstracts, had the fans vote in for the ranking of the best to worst players by position. And they did a darn good job.

There is an enormous amount of untapped knowledge here. There are 70 million fans at MLB parks every year, and a whole lot more watching the games on television. When I was a teenager, I had no problem picking out Tim Wallach as a great fielding 3B, a few years before MLB coaches did so. And, judging by the quantity of non-stop standing ovations Wallach received, I wasn't the only one in Montreal whose eyes did not deceive him. Rondel White, Marquis Grissom, Larry Walker, Andre Dawson, Hubie Brooks, Ellis Valentine. We don't need stats to tell us which of these does not belong.

What I would like to do now is tap that pool of talent. I want you to tell me what your eyes see. I want you to tell me how good or bad a fielder is. Go down, and start selecting the team(s) that you watch all the time. For any player that you've seen play in at least 10 games in 2009, I want you to judge his performance in 7 specific fielding categories.

If you meet the criteria, please go over and fill out a form.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:43pm

Clone Wars: Gavin Floyd and John Danks

Gavin Floyd was a potential bust in 2009 due to ratios that didn't match his numbers through last season. He has regressed, but not nearly to his FIP or xFIP. John Danks had also beaten is FIP and xFIP, but with a strong K/BB and average groundball rates he seemed to be the better choice in 2009. Looking at the numbers they have been almost the same.

              IP        ERA       W         K         K/9       K/BB      HR/F      BABIP     LOB%      xFIP
Gavin Floyd   157.7     3.94      10        134       7.65      2.53      9.60%     0.295     69.10%    3.83
John Danks    141       3.96      10        116       7.40      2.27      9.80%     0.295     73.20%    4.42

Gavin Floyd

Floyd's average performance in 2008 was a bit deceiving. He has always been a much better pitcher against right handed hitters. His career K/BB against right handers is 2.49 and in 2008 it went up to 3.23. This looked like a great step forward, but his numbers against left handers was 1.39. Putting this togethor made him a solid bet in games against teams loaded with right handers, but not left-handed batters.

In 2009 Floyd has seemed to find a balance. His K/BB is now at 2.59 for right handers and 2.48 versus left handers. He seems to have added a bit more off speed pitches this year and his contact rate against on pitches out of the zone have dropped.

His skills have seemed to find a level around 2.50-3.00 and he should maintain the skills for an ERA around 4.00 going forward. His strikeout rate is fair so he adds a solid amount of strikeouts as well.

John Danks

MLB: May 03 White Sox at Rangers
03 May 2009: Chicago White Sox starting pitcher John Danks (50) on the mound during the game between the Chicago White Sox and the Texas Rangers at the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Texas. (Icon/SMI)

After this season we will have to look back and wonder who the real John Danks is. In 2008 Danks took a big step forward. With a solid K/BB and an improving groundball rate, he looked like a great bet to meet or beat his 2008 numbers. As a lefty he should dominate left handers more than Floyd, but over his career he has fared similar to Floyd. His K/BB against right handed batters is at 2.50 while at 2.06 versus left handers. This year they have both been around 2.27 making him average against both.

Looking at this year his control has not fared as well and his BB/9 has returned to 2007 levels at 3.26 making his solid K/BB drop to 2.27. He is having trouble getting swings on his pitches out of the zone this year. Last year 27.9 percent of his pitches out of the zone were swung at, but this year he regressed to 22.3 percent.

His xFIP shows this year he has been fairly lucky and could regress even more this year. He also has not shown the ability to maintain a BB/9 as low as in 2008 at 2.63 since Double-A. He does also have a solid strikeout rate that adds value, but his walks are borderline for his skills. He does have some track record in the minors for higher strikeout rates, but eight would likely be his limit. He seems to be one of the pitcher who has failed to dominate left handers, but managers have not learned to keep their left handers in the lineup.

Conclusion

Both pitchers are still young and having less than 550 innings they are still establishing their skills in the majors. They also have to contend with the inflated home runs pitching in US Cellular and with average groundball rates. These two pitchers are very much clones statistically and hold value as late round picks to fill your pitching staff.

Floyd still gets some flak for his poor component ERAs in 2008 and might continue to fall later in drafts than Danks. I would expect him to be a better value based on draft selection, but Danks would be the player more expected to develop better skills if either of them does.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 1:43am

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Playing for keeps

It’s likely the trade deadline in your league has either passed, or will be passing in the coming week or so. With that in mind, it’s probably as good a time as any to start talking about potential decisions to be made regarding keepers for the following year. In this column, I’d like to take a look at some players whose stock has either risen or fallen this year and evaluate them from a keeper-standpoint.

Of course, a number of caveats apply, so let’s just get them out there and done away with.

1. It’s hard for me to determine Player X as a keeper in any context other than a draft league; I can’t tell you whether I think you should keep Mark Reynolds in an auction league if I don’t know what you paid for him or what other bargains you may have on your roster. (Though, it’s probably a safe bet to say that if you have him in an auction league, he quite likely represents a great ROI, and you should keep him).

2. Not all leagues have the same categories, so I’m going to talk most generally about classic 5x5 scoring mixed leagues. Obviously, Ichiro gets a bump up if your league counts net steals as opposed to raw steals and a demotion if it counts OPS instead of batting average.

3. I don’t know how many keepers your league may allow, so I’ll make comments at two cut off points, shallow and deep. Shallow will refer to a 10 team league with 3 keepers per team (30 total keepers); while deep will refer to a 12 team league with five keepers each (60 total keepers). I’ll try to pick players who might be around either of these borders, and try to focus on guys who have seen a change in their value this season. I will consider as “borderline” players who I think are defensible as keepers at that cut off, but I’d be hesitant to actually recommend.

All that said, let’s get going, shall we?

Jonathan Broxton
Shallow: NO
Deep: BORDERLINE

Broxton has had a great year in his first full go-round as closer, cementing himself as one of the elite at his position. He embraces a high workload, posts inhuman strikeout rates, closes for one of the best teams in baseball and plays in a division overflowing with pitchers’ parks and mediocre line-ups. Still, I wouldn’t consider keeping him in a league that doesn’t reach 50 total keepers. The reason is replacement value. Unless your league is extremely fond of keeping closers, there will be plenty of elite closer options remaining after keepers are declared. There won’t, however, be many players with 30/30 potential, or with realistic shots at 40+ homers. Don’t put one of those guys back in the pool to keep Broxton. Additionally, he may flirt with double-digit wins this year, but don’t expect that to be repeatable.

Let me also make two overarching points here. First, Broxton’s evaluation is basically applicable to the entire crop of top tier closers. Second, because I hate reading pieces in which the author makes a whole slew of predictions that are cumulatively preposterous (we’ve all read football season previews where the combined records of all the teams don’t add up to .500), I actually tried to list as many players as I would clearly choose to keep before considering closers. I started having to think about the decisions in the low-fifties.

Adam Dunn
Shallow: NO
Deep: YES

Leagues are rarely won in the first few rounds of drafts, but they can be lost there. That’s why I’m a proponent of reliability in my early picks. You can pencil Dunn in for his 40 homers and 100 RBIs. His skill set dictates he should be good for 100 runs too, but a putrid supporting cast hurts the cause. Dunn’s OF-eligibility pushes him over the hump. There aren't a whole lot of 40 home runOFs out there and anytime you can get power production like that without using spending one of your corner infield spots, that’s a great opportunity. Dunn’s faults are well known, just make sure you are cognizant of batting average throughout the draft, and you’ll be fine.

Zack Greinke
Shallow: NO
Deep: YES

Two things make the Greinke dilemma especially interesting. One is that the jump Greinke made has been a quantum leap. Sure, he broke out last year, but to go from borderline All Star to Cy Young candidate is skipping a step or two. The other factor is that, as is the case with Mark-Reynolds, it’s likely that if you have Greinke, you also have your top picks from the draft to consider as keepers.

You know what scares me about Greinke? Two words: Francisco Liriano. Track record is really important to me when it comes to elite pitchers, you can’t get burnt keeping a pitcher and win your league; it’s almost impossible.

Carlos Quentin
Shallow: NO
Deep: YES

I thought I would be really conflicted about Quentin, but when I did the thought exercise to test my intuition about Broxton, I found there were way more than 30 players I’d rather roll the dice on than Quentin. I’d rather gamble on, say, Aramis Ramirez staying healthy. Toward the deeper end, the upside is hard to overlook. He has the pedigree and clearly showed his capabilities last year.

Mark-Reynolds
Shallow: BORDERLINE
Deep: YES

I really wanted to not recommend Reynolds in shallow leagues, but I have to at least give him a tentative thumbs up. I even went to Hit Tracker hoping to find that a disproportionate number of his homers were classified as “lucky,” but ‘twas not the case. In fact, only Pujols and Dunn have hit more “no doubters” than Reynolds, who has blasted 19 homers 430 feet or further.
There are a few things that put me over the top on Reynolds.

1. While the strikeout rate remains truly frightening, the walk ratio is moving up.

2. Minus the average, Reynolds wasn’t that far from being a pretty high level 3B producer last year, and could have been knocking at the door of the deeper keeper pool even with just an incremental step forward.

3. The steals drastically elevate his “floor.” Obviously, we can worry about the batting average. Anything over .270 seems unsustainable unless he hits 45 or so homers, but I don’t think we need to worry about .240 either. Another way to approach this would be to think about worst case scenario, which might be along the lines of 80/25/90/12. Meanwhile, what’s the upside? 110/45/120/30? He could totally have another top-10 overall value season next year. And, while you may worry about the BABIP, perhaps the fact that he’s 26 and could still be improving his core skills, which might be able to mitigate some of legit worry with legit hope.

Reynolds is like a poker hand in which you think you might be beat, but you are getting three-to-one on a call. I maintain a “borderline” recommendation because I’m generally conservative by nature about these things, but I couldn’t fault anybody for going all in on Reynolds.

Ichiro Suzuki
Shallow: NO
Deep: YES

There’s a group of players that seem to only live up to their projected fantasy value when everything goes right. Ichiro is a member of this group, along with Jimmy Rollins and Derek Jeter. These players will not justify their pre-season rankings unless they have great years by their own standards.

Personally, I wouldn’t be all that confident in a 10-12 team league if Ichiro was the third best player on my team. I’d prefer a guy with a higher ceiling; I’d easily keep Ellsbury or Markakis over Ichiro, who is likely not a top 30 player without hitting .350. I also wouldn’t even consider keeping him if I was keeping a starting pitcher, doing so would just put you at such a power disadvantage so early in the draft, you’d be chasing those categories the whole draft and likely wind up reaching along the way.

Troy Tulowitzki
Shallow: NO
Deep: YES

Tulo is a great example of a high ceiling player. He plays a premium position. He hits in a great ballpark. He has shown elite fantasy potential previously and he’s stepped up his running game (at least for fantasy purposes) and emerged as a five-category threat. Tulo has risks, as just about any player outside the top 30 will have, but they are risks I’m comfortable taking on.

Alfonso Soriano
Shallow: NO
Deep: BORDERLINE

Soriano will be 34 next year and he hasn’t played a full season or stolen 20 bases since 2006. The ISO’s been trending down too. Soriano doesn’t seem to be the type of player who will decline gracefully. I can see betting on him in the deeper pools, but I’d easily trade the ceiling for the reliability of a slightly lesser player on this one. I can’t emphasize enough how down I am on the way players of his make-up and component skills age. If you have a greater appetite for risk and want to chase the 30/30 potential, here’s a question: who has a better chance to go 25/25 next year, Alfonso Soriano or Alexei Ramirez? I don’t think I’d keep Ramirez either, but a middle infield-eligible guy on his way up seems like a more attractive proposition.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 1:36am

Friday, August 21, 2009

Not a stretch sleeper: Billy Wagner

Billy Wagner is getting a lot of play in the media lately, but unless you're in a medium-to-deep NL (or AL)-only league, this former closer shouldn't be on your radar. FOX's Ken Rosenthal reports that the Red Sox have indeed claimed Wagner, which leaves just a few possible fantasy scenarios:

Wagner is traded or waived and joins a very crowded Sox bullpen with little chance for saves. Even if closer Jonathan Papelbon gets injured, he is no lock to close.
The Mets sit on him, in which case he again has little chance for saves. He'd have a bit higher chance with the Mets, but Francisco Rodriguez would need to get injured and he'd have to leapfrog... umm.... wait, the Mets don't actually know how to build a quality bullpen, so probably no one. Still, K-Rod would need to get hurt for him to earn significant saves, and it's more likely that he leaves New York for Boston anyway.
That's it. It's the Mets or the Sox for Wagner at this point, and neither one makes him an appealing option for mixed leaguers.

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:11pm

Welcoming a new THT Fantasy writer

I introduced you guys to a couple new THT Fantasy writers last week, but we've added another new member of the team since then, so I thought I'd give him an introduction today. His name is Derek Ambrosino, and he'll be discussing keeper leagues with you guys every Monday. He's previously worked for MLB Advanced Media (MLBAM), and you might also recognize him from our comments section writing under the name digglahhh (or, more recently, under his real name).

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:00am

Near-Sighted Marcels

In the sweep of human history, major-league baseball is, shall we say, a recent innovation. It’s not surprising, then, that we have a poor sense of the proper time scale for evaluating baseball talent. Only since a bunch of men met in La Rotisserie Française to draft mock baseball teams did what happened three years ago become more important to our survival than what happened yesterday.

Take hitters. Tom Tango’s Marcel system says that a hitter’s expected performance in one year is a function of his (and his league’s) numbers in the prior three years. One element of the algorithm is a weighting of 3/12 for the hitter’s performance in the earliest of those three years. There is no way that fantasy leaguers credit 25% of a hitter’s expected performance in 2010 to his numbers in 2007. (In truth, the full weighting is less than 25% since Marcel also calls for 1,200 PA of league-average stats. However, 3/12 is the fraction of the hitter’s portion contributed by that early year.)

Likewise, Marcel asserts that the latest of the hitter’s last three seasons contributes 5/12 (out of all the hitter’s numbers) to the next year. Propose to your leaguemates that less than 50% of a hitter’s expected performance in 2010 hinges on his play in 2009 and you’ll be laughed out of the room.

But those are the ratios per Marcel (and I’m sticking with Marcel here, granting that it is simple, because “simple” can still mean “smarter than us”). The past is prologue, but the immediate past is not the whole story. The point is not that just-closed history is immaterial but that only slightly mustier history fades too fast. I don’t know about you, but six months ago feels like three years ago to me.

What we would be really useful, for fantasy games, is a way to identify players for whom we have exaggerated perceptions—those are the rich buying and selling opportunities. One route would be to examine ownership levels in online leagues or aggregate rankings in mock drafts. However, simpler would be a programmatic approach.

To that end, we’ve created Near-Sighted Marcels (NSM's). NSM’s are simply Marcels with a more, ahem, human-like ratio of memories. In Near-Sighted Marcels, the remote past still counts, but the recent past counts much, much more.

What ratio of the past three seasons should we use? After careful (in human terms!) deliberation, we went with 80/15/5—that is, our internal projections for players are composed roughly of 80% of this year’s numbers, 15% of last year’s, & a sprinkling of the year before’s. That seems a fair (if humbling) allotment. (In the Comments, feel free to discuss the ratio that you would choose.)

Here is a comparison of the coefficients for both standard and near-sighted Marcel (ratios adjusted to 100):

	'09	'08	'07
NSM	80	15	5
Marcel	42	33	25

By this light, humans judge the immediate past to be twice as relevant as does Marcel, but the prior year only 1/2 as much, and the outlying year only 1/5 so.

We generated both Marcels and NSM’s for 2010 for the current crop of hitters. We pro-rated the YTD numbers to a full season by multiplying by 4/3. We also expressed the ratio for NSM's as 9.6/1.8/0.6 so that the total magnitude (12) would be the same as with Marcels (5/4/3) and mesh with the injection of league-average PA.

Let’s stick to OPS. We’ll define “Sentiment” as a batter’s NSM OPS minus his Marcel OPS (so a Sentiment above 0 indicates a player who is regarded more favorably by humans than by Marcel).

The leader in Sentiment this year is Tampa Bay shortstop Jason Bartlett:

Jason Bartlett
Year	OPS
2007	699
2008	690
2009	932
2010	OPS
Marcel	775
NSM	855
Sentiment: +80

If you give this season a weighting of 80%, you anticipate an OPS for Bartlett of over 850. Now, Bartlett is having a stellar season, but Sentiment advises us not to get carried away by a guy who had a career 699 OPS in 1,700 PA entering this season, and who has hit as many home runs this season as he did for his entire career before 2009.

Among players with at least 300 PA, here are the leaders in Sentiment:

	Proj OPS
	Marcel	NSM	Sentiment
Bartlett	775	855	+80
Mauer	901	976	+75
Willingham	848	904	+56
Reynolds	855	906	+51
Zobrist	832	881	+49
Lind	806	853	+47
Young M	804	850	+46
Scutaro	757	799	+42
Overbay	784	826	+42
Upton J	831	872	+41

Say what you will about their maturation (and you will say it), these guys should be regarded with a dash of skepticism and off-loaded (for top dollar) with only seeming reluctance. Every thing that can go their way, has.

It’s harder to find laggards in Sentiment with more than 300 PA—depressed play usually means depressed playing time. Still, you could probably guess the big names: Giles, Ortiz, Cedeno, Ordonez, Renteria, Matsui, Upton (B.J.), Burrell, Atkins, Navarro. Guys who (as anyone is happy to tell you) are down to their last swings. If I had a rebuilding team, I would be scooping up these guys like souvenir cups (and at comparable prices).

It’s good to take stock of our limits. It’s even better if we can characterize those limits and play against them. As you plan your keepers for next season, remember those ancient eras when the year ended in an "8" or "7."

(Here is a link to a spreadsheet with both regular and near-sighted Marcels for all hitters with at-bats in each of the last three years.)

Posted by John Burnson at 2:30am

Waiver Wire: NL

John Smoltz | St. Louis | SP/RP
YTD: 7.4 K/9, 3.7 K/BB, 8.32 ERA
True Talent: 7.8 K/9, 3.4 K/BB, 4.04 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Smoltz bombed in trying to switch to an AL team in the toughest division in baseball, but his secondary ratios were about in line with TT predictions. Now that he's back in the NL, on a competitive team with a strong defense, he's definitely going to improve in ERA and wins. The Cards will start him fifth in the rotation for now, then move him into the pen, either in the playoffs or shortly before. That gives you a few starts with a decent upside from a guy who's still talented, extremely competitive, and knowledgeable about NL hitters. Definitely worth a gamble for a handful of wins and Ks in any league, but remember he's still recovering from shoulder surgery, so don't expect him to blow the doors off in ERA or IP—and a continued slide is a very real risk.

Carlos Gonzalez | Colorado | OF
YTD: .289/.350/.547
True Talent: .264/.312/.421
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.5 SB
My WW partner Rob McQuown had suggested covering CarGo last week, but I wanted to wait a week to see if he could keep it up. As always, I shoulda listened to Rob, since Gonzalez was smoking hot, hitting .350/.391/.950 for the week. Some expect him to share time in CF with Dexter Fowler, but ultimately Colorado wants both starting at the same time. TT is pessimistic about Gonzalez continuing to put up such gaudy numbers and sees a substantial correction coming. I expect the truth is somewhere in between; let's not forget that Gonzalez was once a top prospect, and he may have finally figured it out. Don't think of him as a Coors Field product, as his OPS is 37 points higher in away games. He's a must-add for all NL leagues and 10-team mixed leagues in the short term, and those in keeper leagues should strongly consider holding onto him even after he cools off.

Vincente Padilla | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 4.9 K/9, 1.4 K/BB, 4.92 ERA
True Talent: 5.9 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.92 ERA
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Texas released Padilla, and the Dodgers grabbed him, after losing Kuroda to a horrifying Close Encounter of the Line Drive Kind. Moving to the senior circuit, with a pitcher-friendly park and good D behind him, would seem like the recipe for success for Padilla. But his run support is unlikely to change much (Los Angeles scores .06 more runs/game than Texas), and you're still looking at a guy with some pretty miserable TT skills. Padilla could only provide you with Wins, not Ks, and is a serious threat to your ratios (His 1.50 WHIP this year is consistent with his 1.46 and 1.63 from the past two seasons). Some look at him as a sure NL-only add, but I can only recommend him to those teams with a healthy lead in ERA/WHIP who desperately need one or two more wins.

Jonny Gomes | Cincinnati | OF
YTD: .273/.355/.574
True Talent: .242/.333/.465
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .239 BA, 0.2 SB
As I mentioned in last week's writeup on Wladmir Balentien, Gomes (Balentien's primary OF partner) runs hot and cold. Right now, Gomes is Hot Jonny. Thanks to a four-homer week that lifted his weekly line to .400/.471/1.267, owners are snapping him up. He's certainly worth a short-term add, as his production has stepped up his PT to nearly full time, but TT and his history tells you he's going to turn into Chilly Jonny soon enough. And, just as with Balentien, he will lose plenty of PT when Jay Bruce returns in the next few weeks. Ride him while you can in your NL league or 10-team mixed league, but watch for that dropoff coming and have a backup plan.

Angel Guzman | Chicago | RP
YTD: 7.0 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 2.72 ERA
True Talent: 8.0 K/9, 2.4 K/BB, 3.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.66 ERA
The demotion of Gregg from the closer's role has everyone looking towards Carlos Marmol, but Piniella could also give Guzman a turn or two. That's no small consideration, given how much Marmol has struggled with his control this season (8.3 BB/9, 1.3 K/BB). Guzman's numbers are far stronger, and TT shows that he's performing just as expected, with a nudge up in Ks or down in ERA possible. Guzman's had health problems in the past (including TJS in 2007 and a DL stint this season for a strained triceps), but he's also been one of Chicago's best relievers. His superior ratios protect his downside, so don't be afraid to go against conventional wisdom and pick up Guzman to bring you Ks and a few saves—or a lot of them. Worth a roster spot in all NL leagues and 12-team mixed leagues, or if you're scrapping for every last save.

Chase Headley | San Diego | OF
YTD: .259/.337/.392
True Talent: .259/.338/.414
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .257 BA, 0.2 SB
Every other Padres outfielder has gone through a hot streak, so why not Headley? That awful 2009 line isn't representative of the .333/.417/.444 numbers he put up over the last 25 games, his best stretch of the season. He's a former No. 1 prospect and their future 3B (he may already qualify there in leagues with low thresholds) and jumped from Double-A to the majors in 2007, so an adjustment period was to be expected. PETCO has been keeping him down—his OPS is 100 points higher on the road in 2009—and will always make him look worse than he is. An eventual keeper, Headley will probably come into his own in 2010. Until then, he's a good OF add for 10-team NL leagues or very deep mixed leagues; as a 3B qualifier, he's only got value in 14-team NL leagues.

Billy Wagner | New York | RP
YTD: N/A
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
The Mets activated Wagner from the DL on Thursday, and he will bring immediate help to a bullpen desperate for stability. Word is that he could even pick up a few saves, a good thing, since K-Rod is struggling, adding more than 2 runs to his ERA since July 1. But he's also been waived, so he could also end up in a team with playoff hopes and a weaker closer situation. But it's unlikely he'll throw many high-leverage innings regardless of his destination, since any team will use him carefully. He might bring you some Ks and saves; the good and bad news is that he's probably not going to pitch enough to hurt, or help, your ratios very much.

Jeff Baker | Chicago | 2B
YTD: .289/.337/.474
True Talent: .272/.331/.466
Next Week Forecast: 0.8 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .277 BA, 0.2 SB
Piniella named Baker his starting 2B this week, pushing Fontenot to the bench, and Baker's earned it with his hot bat, hitting .472/.513/.722 over the past nine games, and .338/.388/.554 with the Cubs. He's shown this kind of pop in the past, mostly against lefties (career .931 OPS vs. LHP, .708 vs. RHP), a trend that's continued in 2009 (.972 OPS vs. LHP, .697 vs. RHP). It's no coincidence that this nine-game binge has come against four lefty starters, but Lou seems ready to start him most of the time, not stick him on the short end of a platoon. Keep an eye on this going forward, as you might want to platoon him instead. True Talent's giving him a very good outlook for a MIF, particularly in the power department, and his TT line would make him the third-best 2B in the NL. That makes him an easy add in all leagues, so long as you watch his splits down the stretch.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Alex Avila | Detroit | C
YTD: .429/.500/1.048
True Talent: .241/.311/.358
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 1 R, 1 RBI, .241 BA, 0.1 SB
Oh, the nepotism! The son of assistant GM Al, Alex was taken in the fifth round in 2008 out of Alabama, where he just became a full-time catcher in 2008. But wait, this guy can play ball! He's burst into the Tigers' pennant race and wrested at least half the playing time already. After showing great hitting and on-base skills in the tough Midwest League in 2008, the Tigers vaulted him over High-A to Double-A. He didn't slow down at all, and even added power (12 HR) and a 44% CS% to his game. If the “True Talent” projection represents his ability now, it will soon be outdated. This guy is on the fast track, and not just due to his family ties.

Julio Borbon | Texas | OF
YTD: .464/.516/.500
True Talent: .271/.308/.364
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .272 BA, 1.6 SB
Borbon is a good prospect, and even better for fantasy purposes, as he's stolen more than 50 bases in a minor-league season. Ron Washington already trusts him to run, as the eight SB in just 33 PA demonstrate. There's a crowded outfield situation in Texas, and a relatively pop-less hitter like Borbon doesn't fit the mold. So, now that Cruz is back, Borbon may see most of his appearances in pinch-running and defensive replacement roles, but is still worth a roster spot in deep AL-only leagues, and is a keeper to keep your eye on.

Doug Fister | Mariners | SP
YTD: 5.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 1.93 ERA
True Talent: 4.8 K/9, 1.2 K/BB, 5.70 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 W, 2 K, 6.55 ERA
Normally, when a pitcher has a BABIP that's not near .300, you can presume some measure of luck. But Fister's minor-league career has seen a .339 BABIP, an outrageously high total, and a good indicator that his junk and sub-90 “fastball” don't fool hitters, even minor-league hitters. But, as with Rowland-Smith, he's in a great place for him. His minor-league walk rate is just over 2 (2.11), and he induces enough ground balls to get double plays. Could aid WHIP for AL-only teams, despite the hits allowed.

Freddy Garcia | Chicago | SP
YTD: 6.2 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 10.38 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Forget about Carlos Torres and Daniel Hudson—Freddy Garcia will be holding down the fifth spot for another 2-3 starts in Chicago until Jake Peavy takes his place atop the rotation. He didn't look nearly as bad as the stats indicate in his one start, and he was able to throw over 90. He's only worth worrying about in the deepest of AL leagues, but he'll get pulled early if he's getting hit, so it's unlikely he'll cause much harm.

Carlos Guillen | Detroit | IF/OF
YTD: .244/.320/.372
True Talent: .276/.353/.431
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .277 BA, 0.4 SB
Guillen came back on July 24, and has hit .289/.373/.500 since. For the first couple weeks, he wasn't able to bat right-handed, but has started the past 14 games for the Tigers. He's not ancient—just 33 years old—and has peaked even better than this before, so it's not out of the question that he could have two excellent months to end 2009. His eligibility at 3b/1b/of makes him versatile, too. Someone to consider, even in mixed leagues.

Brandon Lyon | Detroit | RP
YTD: 6.3 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 2.84 ERA
True Talent: 6.1 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 3.78 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 Saves, 3.80 ERA
Brandon Lyon has an ERA about a point lower than the closer's, and picked up two wins and a save in August. But Fernando Rodney is still the closer. Both “True Talent” and xFIP indicate that it's a wash, with neither pitcher showing quite the skill level a team would like to have in their best reliever. Still, given the difference in ERA, and the fact that Rodney isn't great, Lyon is probably as likely as almost any setup man to move into a closer's role in September. Jim Leyland isn't known for his patience, after all.

Jayson Nix | Chicago | 2B
YTD: .228/.323/.456
True Talent: .236/.305/.394
Next Week Forecast: 0.7 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .231 AVG, 0.6 SB
In 2001, the Rockies thought Nix was worth a first-round pick. When he was hitting 67 extra-base hits (21 HR) and stealing 24 bases in the California League at age 20 two years later, he was regarded as an exciting prospect. My MLP system tabbed him as being a .270/.340/.425 hitter when he reached his prime years (based on 02-03 data). Well, as we all know, he took quite a detour! Expect the power to slide back down, but even with an awful IF/FB% of over 18%, his .232 BABIP should come up with more AB. A very good fielder by both reputation and (limited sample size) stats, there's no guarantee that Nix will lose the job when Getz returns. A good power/speed contributor for teams in AL Leagues that can afford a hit to AVG.

Ivan Rodriguez | Texas | C
YTD: .257/.285/.390
True Talent: .263/.298/.385
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .260 BA, 0.2 SB
As a Cubs fan, this author has a hard time imagining anything but heroics from the guy who slayed some Bears in 2003. But the 37-year-old version isn't the same, as True Talent indicates. Don't be shocked if he picks up the rate stats in Texas' friendly park, and the abundance of young catching options keeps him fresh. The rest will obviously depress his counting stats, but viewing him as “just a backup” would be a serious underestimation. Could be a surprisingly good second catcher in AL Leagues.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:00am

Thursday, August 20, 2009

End game and maximizing limits

I’m sure many of the readers (and perhaps even some of the authors) here at THT play poker either recreationally or at a somewhat serious level. In fact, my recent absence was partially due to participation in this year’s World Series of Poker (WSOP) in Las Vegas. Maybe you guys haven’t played in the WSOP, but I’m sure many of you have at least played a small home tournament. And if not, here’s a quick disclaimer:

In no way am I, or THT, advocating or promoting gambling.

With that out of the way, there’s a concept in tournament poker (not unique to poker) called endgame. The details can be somewhat complicated but, generally speaking, a player’s tournament strategy should change as the tournament progresses towards its later stages.

One of the (obvious) ways this idea applies to fantasy baseball has to do the total number of innings pitched. I’d imagine that most, if not all, roto leagues place a cap on the number of total innings a team can use during the season. Many times, I’ll find that at this point in the season, the total number of innings I’ve used up projects to a total significantly below the maximum. In other words, if my "innings pitched" were to maintain its current rate, at season’s end, I would come up way short (anywhere from 60 to 100 innings) of the maximum amount allowed.

But this makes some sense, doesn’t it? If I focus or concentrate mostly on hitting, my pitching will most likely suffer in quality or, in my usual case, quantity. My draft may have been hitting-heavy, and I may have been reluctant to use, or selective about using, the "on-the-fringe" pitchers that I had. Or, I may have traded a couple of my pitchers in an attempt bolster my hitting or fix the leaks in my lineup. At any rate, I’m sure I’m not the only one dealing with low inning counts

This probably isn’t the best situation to be in, since the trade deadline has most likely passed and it becomes difficult to find high quality pitchers. But again, its not necessarily quality that we’re seeking. At this point in the season, a team in a standard 5x5 league has probably accumulated at least 800-850 innings, and with a typical cap of 1250 innings, a few mediocre or bad starts shouldn’t really damage your "rate" categories (i.e. ERA and WHIP). Instead, the categories you typically need to catch up on are Wins and Strikeouts.

Its probably obvious to many of our readers here that it is important to try to maximize the number of games played and innings pitched. To help illustrate the point, I’ll quickly use one of my teams from this season. As of this article, I am sitting in fourth place in the strikeouts category with 792 strikeouts in 853 innings pitched. However, on average, my strikeouts per nine innings pitched rate is 0.71 better than the average of the top three teams ahead of me in that category (8.36 vs. 7.65). So it should be clear that I am leaving some points on the board by not maximizing the number of innings pitched. And at this point in the season, that potential four point swing can be huge.

(It’s a potential four point swing because of the three points I would gain plus the one point that would be deducted from the teams ahead of me in the strikeouts category, which are most likely teams ahead of me in the overall standings).

And a quick note, a maximum of 1250 innings, which is the Yahoo league default in a standard 5x5 league, averages out to about seven innings per day for the regular season (which I believe consists of 178-183 days, according to Wikipedia). And if someone can verify this, that’d be much appreciated. Before I discovered the wonders of the internets, I once actually counted the number of days in a season manually, and I really don’t want to do that again. At any rate, I tend to use that seven innings/day rate when I am trying to play this type of "catch-up."

So all that being said, I’m going to reference one of Paul’s recent articles about strategies involved with spot starting. While Paul is primarily talking about Head-to-Head leagues, the ideas in that article pertain to Roto leagues as well.

Posted by Marco Fujimoto at 1:21am

Stephen Strasburg and other prospect notes

The signing period is behind us, and the 2009 draft class has been added to the ongoing THT Top 100 Prospects list. Check it out. It is about as deep a prospect list as you are going to find. That will be the case until all of this year's MLB rookie class graduate from the list in the off-season. Here is the lowdown on some of the newest big names to hit the top of the list.

Stephen Strasburg / SP / Washington / N/A / 7/20/88 / ETA: 2010 / High: #3 / Low: #3 / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
It doesn't look like Strasburg will see the majors this year, but I'm expecting at least a taste of life at Double-A.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - Washington played their cards right and got a deal done with the most hyped pitching prospect in history. They knew Strasburg wouldn't walk away from a record setting deal of any sort, and now Washington D.C. is officially back on the baseball map.

Donavan Tate / OF / San Diego / N/A / 9/27/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #17 / Low: #17 / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
Expect Tate to get his feet wet at the rookie level.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - San Diego has signed themselves one of the more gifted position players in recent years. As long as they let his numerous tools develop properly, we could be looking at the next Jason Heyward, superstar level outfield prospect.

Zack Wheeler / SP / San Francisco / N/A / 5/30/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #34 / Low: #34 / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
San Francisco will take it slow for the rest of the year. No need to rush high school arms in their first year.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - The Giants have found themselves another potential pitching star in Wheeler. His pure stuff, at this point, isn't quite on par with Bumgarner's, but he certainly has a more electrifying arm than former first round pick Tim Alderson. He is a good pick for an organization that has done very well with their high picks in recent years.

Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado / Advanced-A / 7/8/87 / ETA: 2011 / High: #34 / Low: #60 / This Week: +16
2009 Thoughts:
A taste of Double-A could, and should, be in the near future. His dominance of the California League demands it.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - Not only has Friedrich had an unreal breakout campaign, he is having himself the type of year that could earn some major hardware come awards time. Friedrich has done the impossible and flat out laughed in the face of California League hitters. I would love to see a Double-A promotion. And so would opposing Cal League hitters. Friedrich is rocketing up prospect boards everywhere.

Tyler Matzek / SP / Colorado / N/A / 10/19/90 / ETA: 2012 / High: #51 / Low: #51 / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
Matzek is another in a strong class of high school hurlers who project to get some work in rookie ball before the year is up.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - Between Chacin, Friedrich, and now Matzek, Colorado really seems to be putting together some outstanding pitching, which they have lacked since the team's inception. Matzek was the best high school pitcher in the 2009 draft class, and now he will get every opportunity to show why.

Jacob Turner / SP / Detroit / N/A / 5/21/91 / ETA: 2012 / High: #53 / Low: #53 / This Week: New
2009 Thoughts:
Detroit likes to push their pitching prospects, but Turner shouldn't see competition outside of rookie ball this year.
Average Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Prime Year Projection:
Too early to tell.
Notes:
8/19/09 - Turner is a future ace in the making, and Detroit has a solid reputation for developing pitching. I like Turner's chances to separate himself from most of his fellow 2009 high school pitching draftees. Select him in your keeper league with confidence. He is Detroit's new No. 1 prospect.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:05am

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

LaPorta, Stubbs get the call

Anticipated Indians first baseman/outfielder Matt LaPorta and not-as-highly-awaited Reds outfielder Drew Stubbs were both called to the big leagues by their respective clubs today.

In Triple-A LaPorta has played well, putting up a solid .299/.388/.530 slash line while also cutting down his whiff rate from 20 percent last year in Double-A to 16 percent this year. With Ben Francisco gone and Trevor Crowe on the DL, there is not much standing in LaPorta's way from starting in left field, a job the Indians should give him as they play for next year. If available, LaPorta should be scooped up in AL-only leagues and most mixed leagues since he could be in store for a fine September complete with a good average, power potential, and mediocre defense.

The other call-up, Stubbs, is not having his best hitting season in his first at Triple-A, but is still displaying his value to fantasy owners with his 46 steals. He strikes out too much to hit for a high average, but does have some patience and doubles-power that could translate into mild home run-power in the future. Playing time is not so clear cut for him on the messy Reds roster, but against lefties he should start often enough to make him worth adding for NL-only owners looking for some steals.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:44pm

Keeper alert: Matt Thornton redux

Maybe White Sox RP Matt Thornton is worth stashing in keeper leagues after all. He didn't crack my top five list last week, but there's now talk that the White Sox could seriously entertain a trade of CL Bobby Jenks (h/t MLBTR). With big contracts in the books, plus those due to recently acquired SP Jake Peavy and OF Alex Rios, plus arbitration raises due to OF Carlos Quentin and SP John Danks, trading Jenks when an equally formidable (read: much better) option exists in Thornton could make some sense to the Sox.

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:11pm

Player Profile: Elvis has entered the building

Young shortstop Elvis Andrus has shown remarkable development for a 20-year-old jumping from Double-A to the majors. Expect more from him in the short term ... and a lot more in the future.

The shortstop position is among the most difficult to judge in fantasy baseball. Every season, the demand for shortstops outstrips the supply, with 2009 as no exception. The collapses of Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy, Jose Reyes, and Rafael Furcal have left large voids for fantasy owners to fill. Unlike most seasons, however, a number of young, high-ceiling options have made themselves available. Need a stopgap? Potential star? Stolen bases? ... Team owners, set your eyes on Elvis Andrus, one of the most exciting (and underappreciated) options in fantasy baseball. He is young. He is fast. He is maturing. But, most importantly, he is widely available on the waiver wire and via trade in many league formats.

The Past

Coming into 2009, Andrus was rated as one of the best prospects in the minor leagues. Ranked the fifth-best prospect in the Texas League (Double-A) by Baseball America, he could also be found sitting at fourth in the Rangers' major league-best farm system, which included Neftali Feliz, Derek Holland, Justin Smoak, Martin Perez, Taylor Teagarden, etc. While the 20-year-old possessed an elite glove and great range, his bat needed additional development time in the minors.

Before spring training 2009, Elvis was slated for the Triple-A Pacific Coast League with a probable 2010 arrival. This all changed, however, as Michael Young's diminishing glove necessitated a move to third, opening up short for Andrus. While the fielding chops were undoubtedly there (helping the major league team), the bat was very questionable—hurting fantasy league owners. As with many top prospects, however, Andrus was drafted with inflated expectations, due more to his top prospect status than any realistic expectations with his bat.

He did have one thing going for him, however: great speed. In his 20-year-old season at Double-A Frisco, Elvis posted 54 SB in just 535 plate appearances. Still, a lack of pop (four home runs) and a questionable approach at the plate (38 BB vs. 91 K) left significant room for doubt. The glove would make him worth it for the Rangers, but the underdeveloped bat could render him a shortstop version of the 2008 Michael Bourn: huge steals, but a disaster everywhere else. At that juncture, he was a calculated risk. No, a very calculated risk. Nothing more.

The Present

Thus far in 2009, Andrus has been a pleasant surprise. He has stolen bases at a significant clip with just a slightly below-average bat. In fantasy, especially deep leagues and those that employ more than two middle infielders, this makes Elvis a quality asset. His '09 batting line stands at .269/.332/.385 with five home runs and 23 stolen bases (92 percent success rate) in just 370 plate appearances. Just as encouraging are his 27:55 walk-to-strikeout ratio and 21.7 percent line drive rate, which mean he has adjusted well to major league pitching and is driving the ball. While his .311 BABIP is above average, it looks to be a bit low for a player with his line drive rate, speed, and groundball percentage (53.6 percent). In addition, he has only hit successfully on 20 percent of his bunt attempts. Again, a low rate that should recover in the future and help improve his batting average.

Particularly exciting is Andrus' 16.8 strikeout percentage, as it outdoes his 18.9 percent rate from 2008, which was posted at Double-A. Don't expect the K-rate to regress, either, as his good eye (21.6 percent O-Swing v 60.2 percent Z-Swing) and good contact skills (86.2 percent contact percentage) hint that his strikeout rate should remain steady, and perhaps even improve to the 15 percent range.

Andrus' weighted pitch type values show few weaknesses other than a minor problem against curveballs (-1.34 wCB/c). Perhaps the best feature is his above-average performance against change-ups (1.08 wCH/c) despite seeing over 65 percent fastballs. This shows an advanced ability to recognize off-speed pitches, wait on change-ups away, and drive them to the opposite field. Andrus has put five extra base hits into the Arlington power alley, including a 400-foot bomb. Check out his Arlington hit chart. The batted ball distribution is balanced, although there are too many fly outs to right and not enough pulled. Still, not bad for a guy who doesn't turn 21 for another week.

For the rest of the year, expect Andrus to post a .275 batting average with about a .720 OPS, finishing the season with about eight homeruns. This, when, coupled with 35-plus stolen bases, make his complete lack of RBI easier to handle. In a 12-team mixed league, Elvis profiles as a just below-average shortstop. And since he is much easier to acquire than most high-steals players, he is a great option for a team in need of speed that can't mortgage the farm. Need a shortstop? Elvis might be exactly the kind of player you've been waiting for.

The Future

Elvis has a big career ahead of him. So, for those in keeper leagues especially: keep an eye on him. While he does not profile as a keeper this season (other than those in extremely deep keeper leagues), he is a guy you want next year. The 2009 Baseball America Prospect Handbook projects Andrus to become "Edgar Renteria in his prime". For those of you too young to remember the Old Edgar, he was once among the best shortstop options in fantasy baseball. See: Renteria, Edgar, circa 1999 and 2003, when he went 11-37-.275 and 13-34-.330, respectively. Elvis could do just that, with additional steals thrown in. Not bad production at shortstop, huh?

While "Edgar Renteria in his prime" is certainly a welcome outlook, in a perfect world, our boy Elvis could one day approach Jose Reyes territory, albeit with 50 stolen bases per year, not 70. (But if Andrus gets 750 plate appearances like Reyes does, all bets are off.) The power projections are very similar, as too is supporting cast of the Texas and New York offenses. If Andrus can get a spike in walks similar to Reyes' 2007, expect nothing short of greatness, both in fantasy and on the diamond.

Of just as much reason for excitement is Elvis' budding home run swing. Pundits have projected him for 10-20 homeruns per season when he matures, though his power potential is already beginning to show. With just a 27.4 percent flyball rate, Andrus has posted a home run in every 65 at-bats, good for a HR:FB% of 8.1 percent. While having just 16 other extra base hits is a legitimate concern, the .116 isolated slugging percentage can be explained by his high groundball rate. As Elvis begins to hit more fly balls, the slugging percentage and home runs will rise—great news if you're in an OPS league.

While this year's "power spike" is a welcome one, there is cause for concern. If you look back to the Arlington hit chart, you will notice very few fly balls to left past the middle of the outfield. Until he learns to pull the ball with more authority, he will never reach his power potential. Use this to your advantage, however. If you notice the fly balls reaching further into left field, make sure to pluck Andrus from an unsuspecting owner before its too late. You'll be glad you did.

The bottom line is, don't miss out on Andrus next season or in 2011. He is a player to reach on. I repeat: GET ELVIS NEXT YEAR. If you're in a keeper league, he could develop into a consistent second- or third-rounder, with a shot to be a perennial first-round pick. Even if he doesn't hit full tilt next year, you'll enjoy his production from the second-half of the draft.

The Skinny

With just about six weeks left in the season, lots of teams are looking for reliable production out of the shortstop position. Elvis Andrus projects as a .275-.280 hitter the rest of the way, with just under 10 homerun power and a 35-plus steals pace. The only concern left is his inability to drive in runs, as he'll bat ninth behind OBP black holes Taylor Teagarden, Hank Blalock, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Still, with his skill set, Andrus should be a good option at a low price for teams in need of a shortstop and steals. Go get Andrus if you can, and don't you dare miss out on him next season.

Posted by Mike Silver at 2:11am

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Huff to Tigers, Wigginton to your fantasy team

Yesterday, the O's traded Aubrey Huff to the Tigers for minor league RHP Brett Jacobson. Huff will mostly DH for the Tigers, putting Carlos Guillen back in left field and cutting heavily into Marcus Thames's playing time. Thames was an underrated source of power who probably won't play more than 30 or 40 percent of the time unless someone gets injured. Clete Thomas will also lose a bit of playing time.

The player who hasn't been mentioned much throughout all this is the guy who stands to benefit in Baltimore: Ty Wigginton. If you'll remember, Wigginton was a guy whose underlying skills I said I liked last off-season, and now he has a relatively clear path to playing time in Baltimore. He has 1B, 3B, and OF eligibility in most leagues, and has even played 5 games between 2B and SS, so he has MI eligibility in many leagues as well.

If he can play MI in your league, he becomes an immediate 'must pick up' in 12-team mixed leagues and deeper if you need power. He has very good power, a tiny bit of speed, and an above average BA (.260 right now, but he has cut down on his strikeouts and the BABIP is unlucky). Full disclosure: Eriq Gardner and I picked him up in the KFFL Experts League we're playing in (12-team mixed w/ 28-man rosters).

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:48pm

Gregg out?

Manager Lou Piniella will make an official announcement later today, but it looks like Kevin Gregg is out as Cubs closer. The pick up is Carlos Marmol (if he's not already owned) followed by Angel Guzman. I wouldn't bother with John Grabow except in deep NL-only leagues.

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:47pm

What fantasy baseball may look like in 2010

Two weeks ago, I got the idea to hold a mock auction for the 2010 fantasy baseball season.

Although it may seem early to begin contemplating next season when we have about six weeks left in the current one, many people who play fantasy baseball have already started to think about next year. In many keeper leagues, the trade deadline has just passed or will be coming soon, and many teams are trying to position themselves for success in 2010.

Sometimes, it's hard to sort through values when so many things can happen between now and next April, but I figured the best way to get started was to take the "wisdom of crowds" by recruiting a bunch of smart fantasy baseball enthusiasts and conducting a mock draft on my blog. To add to this crowd-sourcing project, I told all of the participants they would be competing for a prize. The masses—that means you—will be voting on the team that did the best job in drafting.

So what players' stock has risen this year? What players' stock has fallen? Where will breakouts like Mark Reynolds, Ben Zobrist, Aaron Hill, Justin Upton, Zach Greinke, Wandy Rodriguez and Ubaldo Jimenez be picked next season?

Our first mock draft of 2010 may hold some clues.

We conducted two rounds daily. Each day, I asked the participants to give me a list of the 20 best players remaining, sorted by draft priority. As a result, I was able to not only administer this draft, but also to get inside the participants' heads and measure variation in their valuations.

For example, on day one, all participants would have drafted Pujols, Hanley, Braun, and Utley in the first round. These guys are solid bets to be there next year. Will Mark Reynolds also be in the cream of the crop? Right now, it's too early to tell. A couple of drafters had him high. But many others didn't have him listed as a top 20 player.

From the looks of the draft and into the minds of the participants involved, players whose stock has risen for 2010 and who could escalate higher in the coming months include: Carl Crawford, Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Joe Mauer, Ryan Zimmerman, Kendry Morales, Pablo Sandoval, Jayson Werth, Jon Lester, and Javier Vazquez.

In turn, here are some players on the wane whose stock could fall much further than what you see below: David Wright, Jose Reyes, Manny Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Alex Rios, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, and Francisco Rodriguez.

It's also clear by this draft that second base is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. By round five of this draft, most of the teams had already lined up their second baseman. In contrast, talent at shortstop seems meager, especially with Jose Reyes and Jimmy Rollins falling to second/third round territory.

What are your thoughts? Who was over-drafted and who deserves the newfound respect? Also, please vote in the poll of who had the best draft. I've sorted the draft by rosters. Plus, a prize is on the line.

Round 1

1. The Sports Banter – Albert Pujols

2. Hamboners – Hanley Ramirez

3. The Devil Wears Prado – Ryan Braun

4. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Chase Utley

5. Evil Empire – Mark Reynolds

6. Unruhlies – Alex Rodriguez

7. .Beyond the Box Score – Tim Lincecum

8. He Thrills B. Mills – Carl Crawford

9. The Fat and the Furious – David Wright

10. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Holliday

Round 2

11. The Juicy Danglers — Justin Upton

12. The Fat and the Furious — Prince Fielder

13. He Thrills B. Mills — Miguel Cabrera

14. Beyond the Box Score —Matt Kemp

15. Unruhlies — Ian Kinsler

16. Evil Empire — Evan Longoria

17. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Mark Teixeira

18. The Devil Wears Prado — Jose Reyes

19. Hamboners — Grady Sizemore

20. The Sports Banter — Justin Morneau

Round 3

21. The Sports Banter – Ichiro Suzuki

22. Hamboners – Ryan Howard

23. The Devil Wears Prado – Joe Mauer

24. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Derek Jeter

25. Evil Empire – Brandon Phillips

26. Unruhlies – Johan Santana

27. Beyond the Box Score – Dan Haren

28. He Thrills B. Mills – Manny Ramirez

29. The Fat and the Furious – Brian Roberts

30. The Juicy Danglers — Jimmy Rollins

Round 4

31. The Juicy Danglers — Ryan Zimmerman

32. The Fat and the Furious — Jason Bay

33. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Beltran

34. Beyond the Box Score — Zach Greinke

35. Unruhlies — Roy Halladay

36. Evil Empire — Troy Tulowitzki

37. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Bobby Abreu

38. The Devil Wears Prado — Kevin Youkilis

39. Hamboners — Adrian Gonzalez

40. The Sports Banter — Dustin Pedroia

Round 5

41. The Sports Banter – Josh Hamilton

42. Hamboners – Javier Vazquez

43. The Devil Wears Prado – B.J. Upton

44. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – CC Sabathia

45. Evil Empire – Curtis Granderson

46. Unruhlies – Brian McCann

47. Beyond the Box Score – Ben Zobrist

48. He Thrills B. Mills – Aaron Hill

49. The Fat and the Furious – Lance Berkman

50. The Juicy Danglers — Robinson Cano

Round 6

51. The Juicy Danglers — Joey Votto

52. The Fat and the Furious — Felix Hernandez

53. He Thrills B. Mills — Carlos Lee

54. Beyond the Box Score — Jacoby Ellsbury

55. Unruhlies — Nick Markakis

56. Evil Empire — Victor Martinez

57. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Justin Verlander

58. The Devil Wears Prado — Aramis Ramirez

59. Hamboners — Adam Dunn

60. The Sports Banter — Alfonso Soriano

Round 7

61. The Sports Banter – Alexei Ramirez

62. Hamboners – Cliff Lee

63. The Devil Wears Prado – Josh Beckett

64. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Nelson Cruz

65. Evil Empire – Adam Jones

66. Unruhlies – Jonathan Papelbon

67. Beyond the Box Score – Nate McLouth

68. He Thrills B. Mills – Yovani Gallardo

69. The Fat and the Furious – Adam Lind

70. The Juicy Danglers — Jayson Werth

Round 8

71. The Juicy Danglers — Matt Cain

72. The Fat and the Furious — Raul Ibanez

73. He Thrills B. Mills — Michael Young

74. Beyond the Box Score — Andrew McCutchen

75. Unruhlies — Kendry Morales

76. Evil Empire — Hunter Pence

77. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Shane Victorino

78. The Devil Wears Prado — Josh Johnson

79. Hamboners — Andre Ethier

80. The Sports Banter — Jon Lester

Round 9

81. The Sports Banter – Adam Wainwright

82. Hamboners – Pablo Sandoval

83. The Devil Wears Prado – Torii Hunter

84. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Johnny Damon

85. Evil Empire – Mariano Rivera

86. Unruhlies – Alex Rios

87. Beyond the Box Score – Joe Nathan

88. He Thrills B. Mills – Jake Peavy

89. The Fat and the Furious – Chris Carpenter

90. The Juicy Danglers — Shin Soo Choo

Round 10

91. The Juicy Danglers — AJ Burnett

92. The Fat and the Furious — Clayton Kershaw

93. He Thrills B. Mills — Geovany Soto

94. Beyond the Box Score — Ryan Doumit

95. Unruhlies — Cole Hamels

96. Evil Empire — Derrek Lee

97. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chad Billingsley

98. The Devil Wears Prado — Carlos Quentin

99. Hamboners — Howie Kendrick

100. The Sports Banter — Tommy Hanson

Round 11

101. The Sports Banter – Matt Wieters

102. Hamboners – Russell Martin

103. The Devil Wears Prado – Asdrubal Cabrera

104. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – James Shields

105. Evil Empire – Joba Chamberlain

106. Unruhlies – Vladimir Guerrero

107. Beyond the Box Score – Chipper Jones

108. He Thrills B. Mills – Gordon Beckham

109. The Fat and the Furious – Jason Bartlett

110. The Juicy Danglers — Jered Weaver

Round 12

111. The Juicy Danglers — Wandy Rodriguez

112. The Fat and the Furious — John Lackey

113. He Thrills B. Mills — Jonathan Broxton

114. Beyond the Box Score — Ricky Nolasco

115. Unruhlies — Stephen Drew

116. Evil Empire — Roy Oswalt

117. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Chone Figgins

118. The Devil Wears Prado — Max Scherzer

119. Hamboners — Jarrod Washburn

120. The Sports Banter — Matt Garza

Round 13

121. The Sports Banter – Mark DeRosa

122. Hamboners – Brandon Webb

123. The Devil Wears Prado – Ubaldo Jimenez

124. Dan’s Dukie Blasters – Mike Napoli

125. Evil Empire – Rich Harden

126. Unruhlies – John Danks

127. Beyond the Box Score – Carlos Pena

128. He Thrills B. Mills – Scott Baker

129. The Fat and the Furious – Francisco Rodriguez

130. The Juicy Danglers — Miguel Montero

Round 14

131. The Juicy Danglers — Jose Valverde

132. The Fat and the Furious — Jorge Posada

133. He Thrills B. Mills — Jair Jurrjens

134. Beyond the Box Score — Jhonny Peralta

135. Unruhlies — Dexter Fowler

136. Evil Empire — David Price

137. Dan’s Dukie Blasters — Heath Bell

138. The Devil Wears Prado — Joakim Soria

139. Hamboners — Andrew Bailey

140. The Sports Banter — Brian Fuentes

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:38am

Dreaded closers

The master of disaster in action. (Icon/SMI)

Brad Lidge and Matt Capps: two closers pitching so poorly, you might suspect some other team is paying them to lose games. Except no one would pay the Pirates to lose, besides perhaps their own fans wanting to get the first overall pick in next year's amateur draft, despite it being Strasburg-less.

Capps has a 6.41 ERA for the year and a 10.71 ERA for the month of August. "Mr. Perfect" last year, Lidge is no better with a 7.27 ERA for the season and an 8.44 ERA in August. It must be those hot summer days, global warming perhaps—a process currently being sped up by the heat generated from the friction off Neftali Feliz's fastball.

The Pirates have no real replacement for Capps. Yeah, Chris Bootcheck is not happening and neither is Jesse Chavez, Jeff Karstens, or Evan Meek—but why not Joel Hanrahan? He seems at least stash-worthy to me at this point.

He has closing experience, however limited, and also is showing some signs of effectiveness, like a 10.01 K/9 rate. The walks are manageable and you could certainly blame luck for some of his problems—no one deserves a .432 BABIP except perhaps the guys tossing meatballs at the Home Run Derby. And that's with a bunch of small children roaming the outfield.

Still, the Pirates have incentive to keep Capps as closer: To keep his trade value this offseason as high as it can be.

Unlike Capps, Lidge does have a no-brainer replacement in Ryan Madson. Madson has been excellent all year, except in June when he was—of course—filling in as closer for an injured Lidge. The problem the Phillies have in replacing Lidge is they do not want a bullpen in a state of flux while in contention, and certainly not in the playoffs.

Still, you can only sit complacent for so long until the flame of blown saves burns down the match and starts to sear your fingers. Ouch.

My point is that Capps and Lidge might be decent trade targets for those whose deadlines have not yet been passed. If you're desperate for some saves and don't want to trade away much to acquire one, see what it will take to get disgruntled owners to part with one of them. They will probably just be happy to have the nuisance off their hands.

For those who do own Lidge and Capps, you have to hang onto them. You don't currently have to start them, especially if you are engaged in more of an ERA and WHIP battle than a saves one. But if Mike MacDougal can get five saves in one week, Lidge and Capps could easily do the same. Both have good enough track records that over the final month-and-a-half of regular season they can pitch well enough to keep their jobs and get some saves along the way.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:36am

Finding wins

Who's a better bet for wins down the stretch? (Icon/SMI)

In the last month of the season, fantasy owners (especially in rotisserie leagues) often find themselves desperately looking for help in a particular category. Perhaps the most frustrating standard category to find yourself behind in is wins. Wins are notoriously hard to predict because the correlation between wins and pitcher ability is much less than that of, say, strikeouts or ERA. I know of some fantasy purists who prefer not to use it as a scoring category at all. That said, if wins is a scoring stat in your league and you're behind in it, perhaps there is a small way to tilt the odds in your favor by using American League pitchers instead on their National League counterparts.

Why are AL pitchers more likely to record a win? Well, the longer into the game a pitcher pitches, the more likely he is to record a decision and, in particular, a win. Thus, AL pitchers are less likely to finish an inning that they've started but also more likely to start any given inning. Both are due to the fact that pitchers bat in the NL.

AL pitchers are taken out of the game for pitching reasons only. NL pitcher may be taken out or kept in the game for batting reasons. A manager may take out an NL pitcher early because his turn to bat came up and it was advantageous to pinch hit for him. Alternatively, though, a manager might keep an NL pitcher in longer if he was due to bat in the next half-inning, so as to avoid a double switch or wasting a relief pitcher. The former effect would tend to mean AL pitchers pitch more while the latter would tend to mean less. As it turns out, using data from 2008 on starting pitchers, AL pitchers pitch longer and are thus more likely to record a win.

League	AL	NL
Win %	37.0	33.5
Loss %	34.6	33.9
Strikeouts	4.08	4.24
Inn Pitched	5.92	5.80
Batters Faced	25.52	25.13
Pitches	95.94	95.05
Proportion finished inning	.666	.725

These are data from non-interleague games only. AL starting pitchers win 37 percent of the time they start whereas NL starting pitchers win only 33.5 percent: basically AL starters are 10 percent more likely to win than NL starters. (For those wondering, this difference is "statistically significantly different"—the same is true for all the other differences, except for the probability of losing a given start.) Unsurprisingly, AL starters strike out fewer batters (and of course have a higher WHIP and ERA), so the higher win percentage does not come for free.

AL starters are much less likely to finish an inning that they started, but they still pitch more innings and face more batters than their NL brethren. (Note: I was not able to tell if a pitcher started an inning but did not record any outs.) AL pitchers even pitched about one more pitch per start. For what it is worth, a simple (probit) regression of wins on whether or not the pitcher finished his last inning of work tells us that pitchers that finish their last inning are much more likely to record a win. I haven't reported the regression's results here because regressions imply causation and I would want to control for many more effects before I'd be comfortable with the numbers.

Apparently, NL pitchers are much more likely to come out of the game early for a pinch hitter than they are to stay in the game to avoid a double switch. Even though they face an easier lineup, they don't pitch as far into games as AL pitchers. Oddly enough, in interleague games, NL starters pitch longer in AL parks than in NL parks whereas AL starters pitch longer in NL parks than in AL parks. Nevertheless, if you are desperate for wins in the final weeks of the season, everything else equal, pick up a Yankees or a Angels starter rather than one from the Dodgers or Phillies.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 2:42am

Friday, August 14, 2009

Waiver Wire: AL

Trevor Bell | Los Angeles | SP
YTD: 6.8 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 6.75 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
A rocky 2008 in the California League—including a temporary move to the bullpen—dropped Bell's prospect status to almost non-existent. For people in deep leagues, it's good to remember that “survival” for a pitcher in the California League can often be a sign of great talent, as it's just that difficult to pitch there. Bell doesn't have “great talent,” and he's about as far from being truly ready as Sean O'Sullivan, and not quite as good. Either is a better choice than Matt Palmer, however. Only in desperation in AL leagues.

Marlon Byrd | Texas | OF
YTD: .281/.321/.469
True Talent: .281/.341/.446
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI, .280 AVG, 0.2 SB
How's that for a player matching his “True Talent” prediction? Well, there's not much to add about Byrd. What you see is what you get, rate-stat wise. We're going to avoid joining the people who've picked him up lately, while various other Rangers have been nicked and missing time. Chris Davis is a likely callup, and it's hard to see Byrd continuing to get playing time against RHP in September. The “Next Week” numbers should be safe to assume, though.

Rajai Davis | Oakland | CF
YTD: .294/.367/.422
True Talent: .261/.319/.362
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 R, 2 RBI, .260 BA, 1.8 SB
Hearkening back to the days of “Whitey Ball” (about which THT's Dan Fox did an interesting writeup back in 2006), metrically aware teams are suddenly “re-discovering” the value of speed and of defensive outfielders. Anyone who's seen Rajai track flies has to wonder how RZR/OOZ rate him as below average (.922 RZR, 30 OOZ plays in 436 innings), and the BIS +/- system has him as only the 14th-best CF. Yes, this is a fantasy column... Davis is a marginal hitter, as shown by TT, and his ability to make a defensive impact will determine how many at bats—and thus stolen bases—he gets for a fantasy team. So, it's good to know that at least the popular-if-flawed UZR system loves his defense, and he's probably a safe bet to keep getting PT as long as he doesn't go into a prolonged slump.

Derek Holland | Texas | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.04 ERA
True Talent: 6.8 K/9, 1.8 K/BB, 5.90 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 4.2 IP, 0.2 W, 4 K, 6.36 ERA
Over at Baseball Daily Digest, I had some observations on the Rangers leading the league in run prevention this season. Part of the reson is that they appear to be intent on keeping their talented pitchers. Holland's fastball averages 93 mph this year. He's still a young pitcher with a crappy home park, so fatigue may wear him down, but for a guy who was expected to begin the year in Double-AA to have allowed a batting line of just .190/.272/.306 in the past month is impressive, even if starts against Seattle, Oakland, and KC are in there. Expect hiccups, but this guy is for real. Don't be surprised if his ERA is almost 2 points under that TT projection the remainder.

Jake Peavy | Chicago | SP
YTD: 10.1 K/9, 3.3 K/BB, 3.97 ERA
True Talent: 9.3 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.61 ERA
Next Week Forecast: n/a
We're of a split mind on the Peavy trade at Heater, as John Burnson hated the deal, while yours truly jumped on the White Sox bandwagon based on it. Peavy has that sort of polarizing influence. He has a career Home ERA 1.0 points better than his road ERA, compared to a typical value of 05. He's a flyball pitcher coming to a park that allows homers. And those are the parks that caused him road ails in the NL—17 HR allowed in Chase Field, a .500+ slugging in both Coors and Wrigley—and which Kenny Williams is banking both money and cheap talent on him being able to reverse. On the plus side, his career OBP against is under .300, his K/9 rate is 9.0, with a fantastic 3.1 K:BB ratio. Non-pitchers have hit just .243/.311/.393 against him, and if you believe in “clutch” pitching, he's been better in the second half and much better in “high leverage” situations (just .215/.285/.314 against). Personally, this author would put every FAAB $ available down on Peavy and not have any reservations. But be warned that many smart people think otherwise.

Cliff Pennington | Oakland | SS
YTD: .326/.367/.457
True Talent: .232/.319/.315
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 HR, 2 R, 1 RBI, .231 AVG, 0.5 SB
Before people start thinking about former Athletic Ryan Ludwick, and other top prospects who dropped off the grid for a few years only to rebound and rake, Pennington was primarily a defensive prospect years ago. Out of nowhere he posted a .426 OBP in 2008, and stole 47 bases between '08 and '09 in Triple-A (711 PA)—bringing back memories of Esteban German's minor-league stats. He is unlikely to ever post a great OBP, but he brings the speed and defense that the new (or is it “old school”) Billy Beane seems to be coveting now.

Travis Snider | Toronto | OF
YTD: .242/.292/.394
True Talent: .250/.317/.424
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Sharp roto players everywhere lit up their transaction lines grabbing Travis Snider when Rios was claimed on waivers away from Toronto. But Randy Ruiz was recalled. What happened? Suspicions are that the Jays are trying to avoid letting Snider qualify for “Super Two” arbitration status, which would at least mean they haven't cooled on him. He's hitting .325/.421/.650 in Las Vegas. Expect him to be up in September and never go down again. He may not be the mega-star many were projecting, but don't read too much into that TT projection, either.

Junichi Tazawa | Boston | SP
YTD: 10.8 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 4.05 ERA
True Talent: 9.6 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 3.27 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.2 IP, 0.5 W, 7 K, 3.38 ERA
ESPN—sometimes seemingly the Red Sox flagship station—would love nothing more than to see Tazawa thrive. He turned down an offer worth millions more from Texas because he wanted to be on a team with Dice-K, and by most accounts would have been a first-round pick if he'd been in the U.S. draft, or the first overall pick in Japan. So, when ESPN columnist Keith Law suggests that he's a No. 3 starter if his control stays at its best, some yellow flags go up. Before jumping in with both feet based on that “True Talent” prediction, consider that he struck out under 8 batters per 9 IP this year between Double-A and Triple-A, and his fastball usually comes in around 90 mph. A similar Yankees pitcher, Ian Kennedy, also had good K/9, K:BB, and FIP rates in the minors. Tazawa might be good, but the TT line is an upside.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 2:01am

Waiver Wire: NL

Trent Oeltjen | ARI | OF
YTD: .414/.414/.862
True Talent: .268/.318/.399
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 3 Runs, 2 RBI, .268 BA, 0.7 SB
Arizona sent Chris Young down to Triple-A this week, bringing up Oeltjen, a nine-year minor league veteran with a career line of .293/.358/.410. He has steadily improved in his last three years at Triple-A, reaching a .300/.358/.505 level in 2009, which earned him that long-awaited call-up. He's crushed in his brief time in the bigs, but that's not going to continue, and True Talent's not the only reason. Conor Jackson and Eric Byrnes are due to return soon, and Justin Upton could come back around the same time, so Oeltjen's basically auditioning for a fourth OF spot on the team. All of this makes him only worth a short-term pickup in the deepest of NL-only leagues.

Anibal Sanchez | FLA | SP
YTD: 7.1 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 5.55 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.53 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 5 K, 4.82 ERA
One of Florida's promising young arms, Sanchez is due back soon from the minors, where he's been rehabbing a sprained right shoulder. He says he's ready now and has tickled the mid-90s with his fastball, so expect him to start sometime next week. His early season stats are a bit inflated as he was battling those shoulder problems, but True Talent shows his peripherals are right on target. His career has been marred by injuries, including surgery on that same right shoulder, so handle him with care. But the talent is there, and he'll deliver Ks as well as wins from a Florida club that has won 13 of its last 21 and 5 of its last 6. If he does well in his first start, he'll be a good roster addition for nearly all NL-only leagues and mixed leagues of at least 12 teams.

Alcides Escobar | MIL | SS
YTD: .250/.250/.250
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Milwaukee's housecleaning this week cleared the way for Escobar, their top prospect, to make his mark. He's a wizard with the glove but has been working on his hitting in order to reach the majors. In 2009, he hit .297/.346/.412 in the minors, with 42 SB, showing you his real fantasy value—speed. His batting eye needs more work, although his 0.5 BB/K this season in minors was an improvement over his .34 career mark, and it's the reason he'll start out at the bottom of the batting order (he hit ninth in Macha's LaRussa-esque lineup on Thursday). He's likely to struggle initially getting on base, which will affect his SB numbers, and he won't collect as many runs until he can hit leadoff. Hardy remains in the wings if he struggles, further diminishing his value. But teams with a need for speed aren't going to find any better waiver wire opportunities to collect steals at this point in the season, making him a good add in almost any league. Just keep in mind his probable BA drag, diminished power and runs.

Oliver Perez | NY | SP
YTD: 8.7 K/9, 1.1 K/BB, 5.97 ERA
True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 4.78 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 12.0 IP, 0.7 Wins, 11 K, 4.52 ERA
How bad do you need strikeouts? Enough to take Perez's 8.2 BB/9 and ERA that floats around 5? Enough to pray for a win from the Quadruple-A Mets? Perez has given up only seven ER over his past four starts, dishing out 26 Ks over 21.2 IP, but he didn't pick up a win. That's about what you should expect from Perez, who's also prone to disastrous starts, like the two seven-plus ER starts he had in April. The good news is that he's been looking better of late; the bad news is that for Perez, looking better isn't hard to do—this is the first month his ERA has dipped below 7.00. Maybe you see that glass as half-full and see continued improvement—he's got to lose over a run to match his TT projection, after all—but he's unlikely to prove worthy of the gamble. Let's hope you don't need Ks this bad.

Angel Pagan | NY | OF
YTD: .287/.331/.459
True Talent: .263/.323/.410
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 4 Runs, 3 RBI, .258 BA, 0.9 SB
Shortly after Carlos Beltran hit the DL, Pagan became New York's everyday CF and leadoff hitter, and he's been about the only thing Mets fans have been able to count on, outside of David Wright and being below .500. Particularly of late, Pagan's been getting on base at a good clip and scoring runs, even getting a handful of extra-base hits. Cory Sullivan has started in the past couple of days, as punishment from Jerry Manuel for poor play from Pagan, but Pagan should be back there soon. He's still not going to bring a ton of value, but he's not a bad pickup for his combination of moderate power and speed. His best value is in NL-only leagues 15 teams or deeper; teams in other leagues can try to snag a few steals from him, but be warned: He's only swiped four bags in his last 28 starts.

Madison Bumgarner | SF | SP
YTD: 7.0 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 1.97 ERA (minors)
True Talent: N/A
Next Week Forecast: N/A
Heads up, keeper owners: Bumgarner is coming. Though he's currently at Double-A, rumors persist of this 20-year-old lefty's imminent call-up, and you'll see him in September (if not sooner) as either a starter or reliever. His fastball is so nasty that he's had to work only recently on a good peripheral pitch, settling on a slurve instead of his inconsistent curve. He's got poise, power, good health, and can even hit (.429/.500/.857 in 9 PAs this year). On any other club, he'd be a sure ace, but there's some guy named "Lincecum" in his way to that honor. If your keeper league doesn't allow minor-league pickups, get your finger ready on the mouse for when he gets that call-up; if you can take minor-leaguers (and he's still available), now's the time to get him. You won't be sorry.

Wladimir Balentien | CIN | OF
YTD: .235/.300/.377
True Talent: .234/.301/.408
Next Week Forecast: 0.5 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .230 BA, 0.2 SB
One of the lesser names to switch leagues before the trade deadline, Balentien was swapped by Seattle after they DFAed him, finally tired of waiting for his power to develop. He's only 24, but his 0.38 BB/K in the minors declined to a 0.27 in the majors, and his .368 career SLG in the bigs couldn't make up for that. He's competing for time with Jonny Gomes, who is both older and very streaky—his 3-HR night on Thursday followed a 4-for-27 stretch—so Balentien could eat up more PT as August progresses, but Bruce is due back in September, which should push both Balentien and Gomes back to the bench. That .357/.455/.500 with CIN makes Balentien look juicy, and he could be worth a short-term flier in very deep NL-only leagues, but he won't give you very much for very long.

Bobby Parnell | NY | SP/RP
YTD: 7.3 K/9, 1.6 K/BB, 3.94 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.3 K/BB, 5.18 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.19 ERA
Parnell is the latest to toe the Rubber of Death for the Mets, filling in while Mike Pelfrey left to take care of his wife. He's going to get another chance to start tonight, which could determine whether he sticks in the rotation or not, and thus what kind of value he might have for your team. His average stats make him suitable only as a fringe-y starter, so watch this next outing carefully. He's a well-regarded prospect in the Mets system, so he's got the skills, but his long-term outlook sees him coming out of the bullpen. Consider him a gamble for NL-only leagues 15 teams and deeper, or as a pick-and-stash for deep keeper leagues.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Radio show appearance

Just a note that I'll be appearing tonight on The Fantasy Face-Off radio show with Brian Joura, subbing in for Kevin Orris. Should be a fun evening. If you'd like to listen, it will be live from 7 to 7:30 p.m. EST, or you can listen to the archived version afterwards.

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:44pm

The nominees for most disappointing player of the year

If you haven't already heard, a man crush of mine, Jordan Zimmermann, is having Tommy John surgery. We're all hoping for a speedy and successful recovery. All you Top 100 followers, take note. This procedure will drop him completely from the Top 100 list, which will be updated next week. That's why it's always a bigger risk to invest in a pitcher rather than a position player.

Last week, I brought you the nominees for Minor League Player of the Year. Lets visit the other end of the spectrum, shall we? Here are your nominees for Most Disappointing Player of the Year.

Jeremy Jeffress
Everyone had high hopes for the hard-throwing Jeffress. His velocity was through the roof. His control ... not so much. But we all did have those high hopes, didn't we? Well, Jeffress fell flat on his face, in more ways than one. His walk rate gave the Brewers' front office nightmares, and his extracurricular activities even more so. Jeffress is currently serving a 100-game suspension for testing positive for an illegal substance. One more suspension means a lifetime ban. Jeffress went from being one of the more raw, talented pitching prospects in the game to a guy that wouldn't even make an appearance on a Brewers top prospect list.

Jason Donald
Donald was featured on many publications' top 100 list at the beginning of the year, and rightfully so. His 2008 performance pointed toward a young man with solid big league tools, including a solid glove at shortstop, average contact skills, average plate discipline, a bit of pop in his bat, and speed enough to contribute a handful of steals. All in all, his tools equaled out to an above average major league shortstop. This year, he has had a hard time staying above the Mendoza line and his power production has nose-dived. He was traded to Cleveland in the Cliff Lee deal, which means the Indians must see something in him. But in another month he will be 25 years old and finishing up a cringe-inducing Triple-A season. I don't see much to like anymore.

Kyle Skipworth
Skipworth's stat line says it all. Every bit of it makes me shake my head. Well, except for the seven home runs over 264 at-bats, which is a good sign for a 19-year-old catcher. I always have to keep his age in perspective, otherwise there is absolutely nothing there to like. This former first round pick is going the wrong way. The next Max Sapp, perhaps? There is still time to turn it around.

Michael Main
I really thought this would be Main's breakout campaign. Unfortunately, the young man took a step backward. While he is playing in the California League, a notorious hitter friendly environment, there is no excuse for a kid with his stuff putting up 45 strikeouts and 36 walks over 54 innings of work, not even the strange, undiagnosed illness he has suffered through. But there is still potential, of course.

Mike Moustakas
Moustakas has not taken the step forward that everyone expected. His contact skills are still a question mark, his patience at the plate a liability, and his baserunning skills a work in progress. Combine that with his now permanent move to third base, and you have yourself a disappointing year. But the wrist speed and power are still present, and they will carry his reputation going forward.

Still in the picture:
Lars Anderson
Max Ramirez
Aaron Hicks
Eric Hosmer
J.P. Arencibia

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:07am (9) Comments

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Stretch sleeper: Ervin Santana?

Angels SP Ervin Santana has probably been dropped in most mixed leagues at this point, but Alex Eisenberg thinks there's a chance he could be turning the corner on his thus-far poor 2009. Eisenberg said that Santana's mechanics during his Tuesday start against the Rays looked the closest they've been all year to his 2008 mechanics. Of course, this is a small sample size and is qualitative, but that doesn't mean it should be ignored. If you're looking for a high-variability pitcher, Santana could be a good choice. And in all honesty, his peripherals (4.28 LIPS ERA) have been much better than his 6.38 ERA indicates, even if they aren't as good as they were last year.

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:16pm

Hardy demoted; Escobar promoted

Stuck in a season-long slump, the Brewers are putting J.J. Hardy out of his misery by demoting him to Triple-A. Filling his starting role at shortstop will be 23 year old Alcides Escobar, who is batting .300 with 40 steals in his first Triple-A season.

It remains unclear how long Hardy will stay in the minors; I wouldn't expect him to stay down less than a few weeks since the Brewers want to see how Escobar will perform in the majors and also let Hardy 'reinvent' himself. Escobar can be added in all formats because he figures to be active on the base paths and hit for a respectable .270-.280 average. Jump on this news.

Posted by Paul Singman at 12:28pm

Player Profile: My street accident, B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton represents everything that is exciting and flawed in fantasy baseball. While tantalizing owners with his incredible power-speed potential, he has frustrated managers and doomed teams to the cellar with a terrible 2009.

Fantasy managers in 2007 waited with baited breath for Upton's first full season. He did not disappoint, posting a stellar .300/.386/.508 line to go along with 24 home runs and 22 stolen bases in 548 plate appearances. Nothing stood in his path to fantasy stardom, except the lingering concern of his lofty strikeout numbers, sitting at 154 for the season. Still, Upton seemed destined for stardom.

B.J.'s 2008 season was a bit human for this fantasy Superman, as his power all but disappeared, dropping to just nine home runs in 640 plate appearances, coupled with a drop in batting average to .273. This was partially made up for by a substantial increase in stolen bases, however, as his swiped bags total rose to 44.

While 2008 was nothing to write home about, Upton's stellar postseason, as well as a rumored shoulder injury, reminded owners of his tremendous latent power potential and ultimate upside.

Fast forward to August 2009. Upton's season has been an unmitigated disaster. His triple slash line sits at a pathetic .237/.312/.359. Hardly the type of player who breeds fantasy glory. Further, the rumored power surge never arrived, as Upton has hit just seven home runs in 477 plate appearances.

Upton has been completely lost at the plate this season, as evidenced by a decline in almost every meaningful secondary statistical indicator. The center fielder has posted three-year lows in the following categories: line drive percentage, walk rate, strikeout to walk rate, and HR:FB percentage. His contact percentage sits at 75.6 percent, down from 80.5 percent in 2008. His timing is way off, as evidenced by the fact that he has completely forgotten how to hit change-ups (Upton's run value per 100 change-ups: 2008: +1.71, 2009: -1.15).

In regards to this season, there is not much that can be done. Yes, he could turn it around in the final two months to help a team win a title, but he is not a player you should bet on. Winning fantasy titles is as much about superstars as it is about solid, consistent contributions. At this point, you must replace Upton if you haven't already.

For those in keeper leagues, Upton seems to be at a crossroads in his career. Upton can become one of two players, with either one being just as likely.

On the one hand, he could become Carl Crawford with more power and slightly fewer steals. Upton has shown that he can steal 40-50 bags and hit 20-plus homers. There were few fence scrapers among his 2007 home runs, so the power seems to have been real.

However, his unrelenting issues with strikeouts may turn him into the next Mike Cameron, albeit with less power. In the last three years, Upton has struck out at rates of 32.5 percent (2007), 25.2 percent (2008), and 29.6 percent (2009). Assuming the K-rates and middling power hold, Upton will never hit over .270. While he may have hit .300 in 2007, this was a complete BABIP mirage, as his balls in play average stood at .399. That's right, .399.

In a more realistic 2008 (realistic being relative, as his BABIP was still quite high), his .351 BABIP led to a .273 batting average. This .270 range is much more indicative of Upton's batting average potential, as no one who strikes out in 25 percent of their at-bats can hit .300 unless they can club over 30 home runs. If you're one to expect him to drop the K-rate, don't. Anyone who swings just 40 percent of the time with just an 80 percent contact rate will struggle with strikeouts. Patience is a virtue, but too much can be a vice.

If you find yourself in a one-year league, trade or bench Upton. Even if he does turn it around, by the time you trust him again, the year will over.

If you're in a keeper league, there are a few scenarios that could be beneficial.

First, if you are low in the standings, hold onto him and see if he can show some signs of progression in the last two months. This could be enough for you to keep him for next year or deal him to someone who will give up a worthy keeper. DO NOT CUT UPTON, especially if you are out of the race. There is still enough time in the season for him to make a case for next year.

If you are near the top of the league in the standings, know that Upton still has a lot of believers. Try to find an owner who needs a keeper and see if you can deal for a good player who can put you over the top.

In short, Upton has very little to offer this season. He's already been brilliant as well as disgraceful, so even a two-week burst doesn't mean he's figured out his woes. Think about it, at what point will you actually be willing to trust him in your lineup?

For keepers, the B.J. Upton Brand still has a lot of value, although his prospects for the future have taken a considerable hit. If you want my opinion, I think he'll eventually approach the star everyone predicts, posting multiple 20-40 seasons, albeit with low batting averages. However, it's up to you to decide whether it's worth finding out, in case he actually becomes the next Mike Cameron.

Posted by Mike Silver at 2:23am

Keeper league strategy: Closers

The past two seasons around this time, I've discussed keeper league strategies for acquiring cheap closers. As I did last year, I'll simply copy and paste the underlying theory behind the strategy, changing a few examples to make it feel current.

Closers in keeper leagues

All keeper leagues are different, but if you are in one where your league-mates make a habit of keeping top closers, this strategy will be especially good for you.

In these leagues, when auction day or draft day rolls around, the number of closers will be limited. Those who haven't kept a top closer will be bidding against each other for the left-overs ... the second tier closers. By default, their price will rise, quite possibly above their raw value. This can trickle down the list of closers until Fernando Rodney (to take an example from this year) is being auctioned for some crazy amount, like $12.

So how do you avoid this? Do you simply punt saves? Do you overpay for a closer? I hope you won't have to do either, that this draft day inflation won't happen. The intelligent owner, though, will prepare—just in case—read the market come draft day, and decide on a course of action.

If you're out of the running this year, the stats you accrue over the remainder of 2008 make no difference to you. You shouldn't have your keepers set in stone yet, although you definitely should have a good idea who they will be. You could, theoretically, drop every player you don't intend to keep, tank, and it wouldn't make an ounce of difference. Of course, I don't advocate this; this type of behavior skews league results. It certainly would anger the rest of your league if you drop a $49 David Wright because you decide he's too expensive to keep. Might even get you kicked out before you make your run for the title in 2010!

Knowing this, feel free to drop any overpriced, old, or otherwise unkeepable players (within reason) and pick up some that fall into the next category: middle relievers with the inside track for a closing job. The owners in your league who are in it for this year might be ignoring these guys since they can't afford to waste bench (or even active) roster spots. Since you are concerned with next year, however, take the inside track while you can. Any advantage you can get is one worth pursuing, and there are several to be gained this time of year while many of your opponents don't have the flexibility to make moves you can if you're out of the race.

When Kerry Wood gets auctioned for $15 next year, you might be sitting on the Brewers' newly anointed closer, Todd Coffey, for $1. The great news is that it won't cost you anything in the short term because you're already out of it! How's that for value?

Of course, there's no way to predict who will be closing next year for certain, but you don't have to. If you're out of it, you just need to play the odds a little bit. Pick up five guys from the next list and, come March, if any of them have been promoted, decide to make that guy a keeper. That'll show the guy who's keeping Joe Nathan for $15.

Last year's results

As I've said in years past, this plan is far from fool proof. If these guys were guaranteed dominant closers, there's a good chance they'd be closing already. Some of them do have the right stuff, though, and if they are given the opportunity to start 2010, they could run away with the job.

Last year, of the 21 guys who made the list, four (Heath Bell, Huston Street, Frank Francisco, and Matt Lindstrom) opened the year as their team's closer (and two more inherited the job for some portion of 2009). This isn't a great raw percentage, but I think that's more the nature of the beast than anything else (and I did give strong recommendations to Bell and Street).

The list

+------------------+------+---------------------+
| Name             | Team | Current Closer      |
+------------------+------+---------------------+
| Koji Uehara      | BAL  | Jim Johnson         |
| Chris Ray        | BAL  | Jim Johnson         |
| Chris Perez      | CLE  | Kerry Wood          |
| Ryan Perry       | DET  | Fernando Rodney     |
| Brandon League   | TOR  | S. Downs/J. Frasor  |
| Matt Thornton    | CHW  | Bobby Jenks         |
| Mike Gonzalez    | ATL  | Rafael Soriano      |
| Carlos Marmol    | CHC  | Kevin Gregg         |
| Daniel Schlereth | ARZ  | Chad Qualls         |
| Nick Massett     | CIN  | Francisco Cordero   |
| Several Options  | COL  | Huston Street       |
| Todd Coffey      | MIL  | Trevor Hoffman      |
| Mike DiFelice    | MIL  | Trevor Hoffman      |
| Mike Adams       | SD   | Heath Bell          |
| Joel Hanrahan    | PIT  | Matt Capps          |
| Chris Bootcheck  | PIT  | Matt Capps          |
| Jorge Sosa       | WAS  | Mike MacDougal      |
| Garrett Mock     | WAS  | Mike MacDougal      |
| Tyler Clippard   | WAS  | Mike MacDougal      |
+------------------+------+---------------------+

Explanations

Arizona
Chad Qualls was a trade candidate this year, and if he goes in the offseason, the team could turn to any number of players. Jon Rauch would have been next this year, but he's not really a long-term option (or very good, for that matter). Daniel Schlereth has been called a closer-of-the-future, though his control is a problem and he might still be a year or two away from really dominating. Clay Zavada and Juan Gutierrez might be darkhorse options. I might say Schlereth is the favorite, but there are stronger alternatives on other teams.

Atlanta
Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez are both free agents, and the team could easily re-sign at least one of them. If Soriano leaves and Gonzalez stays, he's the closer. If both leave, the team probably doesn't have any in-house options they'd be comfortable handing the job to.

Baltimore
Jim Johnson has inherited the role from recently traded George Sherrill, and he could just as easily start next season in the role. There is a sect of fans who believe Japanese import Koji Uehara could actually open 2010 as the closer, though, and he certainly would be expected to thrive if he did. He closed in Japan, and with so many good SP arms, it might make sense for the O's to put him in the role. A very interesting play since Johnson is surely owned, although Chris Ray is still around and was a candidate to close this year had Sherrill struggled. Kam Mickolio and Cla Meredith have also been discussed as darkhorse options.

Chicago Cubs
Kevin Gregg is a free agent at year's end, and if the team lets him walk like they did withKerry Wood, Carlos Marmol could finally get his chance to close. Despite his control issues, his LIPS ERA is still an OK 4.28. Of course, he could still be owned from this season's draft. Angel Guzman might be the choice if it isn't Marmol.

Chicago White Sox
Maybe a long-shot, but Bobby Jenks could be a trade candidate. If he goes, I'd have to take Matt Thornton as my choice for his replacement.

Cincinnati
Francisco Cordero's name came up at the trade deadline, and if he is moved in the offseason, Nick Massett makes a strong case to replace him. Jared Burton could be a darkhorse.

Cleveland
Kerry Wood hasn't been very good this year, and combined with his big contract he might not be the easiest guy to trade. The Indians didn't rule it out in the middle of this year, although the changes he's made could have been suggested by the team to keep him healthy (meaning they might not be too disappointed with his season). They did acquire former Cardinals closer-of-the-future Chris Perez this year, and although he has poor control, he could close at some point. Former closer Jensen Lewis could be a darkhorse.

Colorado
Huston Street is still arbitration-eligible after the season, but Colorado might not want to pony up the cash to keep him. If the Rockies trade him, in-house options include Manny Corpas, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Daley, and possibly Franklin Morales. Jhoulys Chacin would be a long-shot. His future is likely in the rotation. This is a pretty murky situation. I'd probably go Corpas, Morales, Betancourt, Daley, in that order.

Detroit
Fernando Rodney will be a free agent, and if he doesn't return, the team will be loaded with replacement options. Ryan Perry was drafted to be their closer of the future, but his control has been pretty awful. I'd probably call him the favorite with Bobby Seay, Freddy Dolsi, and (of course) Joel Zumaya as other options. Brandon Lyon could also be an option if he doesn't leave via free agency.

Houston
Jose Valverde is a free agent, and it might be more likely the team resigns him or looks externally because they don't have very many solid in-house options. LaTroy Hawkins? He's a FA too. Felipe Paulino? Good numbers, closer-ish stuff, but poor surface numbers for a backwards organization. Best to stay away from this situation.

Milwaukee
Trevor Hoffman will be a free agent, and retirement probably isn't out of the question. Either way, there's no guarantee he's staying in Milwaukee after a strong 2009 campaign. This team doesn't have a history of forking over big bucks for a closer. Todd Coffey might be the pick here, even if Mike DiFelice is the better pitcher (albeit a non-conventional closer-type). Coffey had been discussed as a closer-of-the-future type in Cincinnati, and he's putting up a very nice 2009.

Pittsburgh
Matt Capps is not having a good season, and there was talk mid-season of trading him. Unless he implodes or is traded in the offseason, he'll still start 2010 as the closer, but if he is traded, I see two candidates who might be able to take the job and run with it. Paul talked about Chris Bootcheck the other day, and the team didn't acquire Joel Hanrahan for nothing. They've got a smart front office now and probably realized he was unlucky, and it wasn't but five months ago we were all calling this guy an undervalued fantasy closer. He's got good stuff, good numbers, and might be the best speculative choice here.

San Diego
It looked like the Pads could trade closer Heath Bell at the deadline this year, and they may explore that option again in the offseason. If he goes, Mike Adams would be a fitting option. The team could go younger with Luke Gregerson or Greg Burke, but Adams was the speculative add this season, and the team wasn't afraid to give a 31-year-old Heath Bell the job this season (of course, they also didn't have two other legitimate options). If it isn't Adams, I'd take Gregerson over Burke.

St. Louis
Ryan Franklin has been good this year, so there's no real reason to expect him to not open 2010 as the closer. If he is, for whatever reason, traded or (more likely) struggles to open 2010, Jason Motte and Kyle McClellan could be options to replace him.

Toronto
Both Scott Downs and Jason Frasor were trade candidates this year, and if both are traded this offseason, Brandon League is a solid option to replace them. Jeremy Accardo could also be in the picture.

Washington
Let's face it. Mike MacDougal is not going to last (and I mean, like, past next week), so who will be closing in Washington to start 2010? If they don't look externally, it could be whoever closes out 2009 for the team. Right now, that might be Jorge Sosa, who actually put up good numbers at Triple-A this year. The team has said in the past that they view Garrett Mock as a closer-of-the-future type, so he could also be considered, and Tyler Clippard was mentioned as a potential replacement should MacDougal falter. Overall, I'd avoid this situation unless I have few options.

Free agents
Kiko Calero, Mike Gonzalez, Octavio Dotel, Brandon Lyon, and Billy Wagner are guys who will be free agents who could be cheap options for teams looking for a closer.

Teams in the market for closers

In several of the above situations, I noted that the current closer is a solid pitcher who will be a free agent at the end of the year. Whether the next guy on the depth chart enters 2010 in a position for saves may depend on whether the current closer gets a better offer elsewhere.

I thought that it would be a good idea to see which teams could be looking externally for a closer. The more teams that will be (and the more money they have), the better the chances for all of those "next in line" types (as well as those listed in the "free agents" section) to be closing next April.

Here is a list of teams that might be looking for a closer.

Atlanta
Baltimore
Detroit
Florida
Houston
Milwaukee
Tampa Bay
Texas
Washington

Not as many teams as last year, and not as many who figure to be strong suitors. Detroit and Milwaukee never seem to want to go big on a closer; Washington might not have the cash; and Baltimore, Texas, Tampa Bay are more long-shot types with solid in-house options to rely on. Florida could be active, but probably more-so in the trade market than in free agency. That just leaves Atlanta and Houston, who could simply resign their current options.

This probably doesn't bode to well for guys who need their current closers to ship off. With few teams probably willing to dole out the big bucks, they might opt to stay with their current teams, especially if they're willing to accept a home-town discount.

My choices

There are few obvious choices this year as most of the situations are quite murky (although maybe that's the case any year). Here are five guys I might take if I had to pick right now:

Mike Gonzalez
Carlos Marmol
Todd Coffey
Jorge Sosa (uggh)
Joel Hanrahan

I don't like picking Sosa because of his history, but he makes some sense since he could prove himself to the team by the end of 2009. I kind of wanted to pick Ray or Uehara in Baltimore, but there are so many options there that it's tough to back just one horse (especially since Johnson could simply keep the job). I had a similar dilemma in picking Hanrahan, but even if he doesn't open 2010 with the job, he might be one of the best speculative setup men options. Massett and Adams were also in consideration simply because they'd be strong options to succeed if they got the job.

Concluding thoughts

Disagree with my choices? Did I miss someone entirely? Did you use the strategy last year? Any thoughts, questions, or comments, leave 'em below.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:09am

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Alex Rios to White Sox

As I'm sure you've heard, the Chicago White Sox have claimed Alex Rios off waivers and the Blue Jays have let him go to get out of his contract (which wasn't really even bad). Rios has been a bit unlucky this year (thanks in part to a terrible April), but he is still a good player, both in real life and in fantasy baseball. Currently, the Sox have Carlos Quentin and Jermaine Dye patrolling the corners and Scott Podsednik in CF. Podsednik has been pretty good this year, and the Sox obviously like him enough to bat him leadoff, but I have a hard time seeing him play much over a guy like Rios.

Overall, Rios' value doesn't change much (maybe a small hit due to PT concerns). Toronto's Rogers Centre is a little less homer friendly than U.S. Cellular (worse park factor, deeper left-centerfield fences), but it is still a very good homer park. Toronto suppresses Ks by 5.1% over U.S. Cellular and increases singles by 4.9%. Doubles and triples are suppressed, but the overall impact on his BA should be positive. Another 6 or 7 homers, 8 or 9 steals, and a .290 average can be expected the rest of the way (assuming Podsednik doesn't dig into his PT too much).

Indirectly affected is, obviously, Podsednik, whose value takes a huge hit. In Toronto, Jose Bautista gets a temporary boost in value. If you can afford a BA hit and need power, he makes a decent pickup in very deep mixed leagues. It might not last, though, as the loss of Rios could clear room for the Jays to recall top prospect Travis Snider. If you have room in deep mixed leagues (perhaps even deep 12-team leagues), it's time to stash him (Note: This might not be the case. Check the comments below).

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:00pm

Keeper alert: Julio Borbon

For those in keeper leagues where many keepers are allowed, or in which there is some sort of minor league or salary system, it might be wise to snatch up Julio Borbon (assuming he's still available). The Dallas Morning News had this to say earlier in the week (h/t Lenny Melnick):

Borbon will be the Rangers' leadoff hitter in 2010, should he make the Opening Day roster, manager Ron Washington said. Washington said he views Ian Kinsler as more of a run producer than leadoff hitter...

That's some kind of statement. Borbon doesn't possess much power, but he does have very good speed, rarely strikes out, and has a pretty good BABIP history. That means he should help in steals and batting average, and if he leads off, should score lots of runs (even if he doesn't walk very much).

Here's a scouting take from Jason Grey from the beginning of July:

[Borbon] was a true 80 runner at the University of Tennessee [Note: Scouts rate tools on a scale of 20-80, so 80 is incredible] before breaking his ankle, but his speed has bounced back nicely. He's so good at making contact that he really doesn't worry too much about patience at the plate, which means his OBP is always going to be an issue (29 walks in 546 at-bats in '08), but there's a lot to like about the rest of the package. He has great range in center field, plus makeup and an excellent work ethic. He hasn't hit for a ton of pop yet, but there is still a bit more projection in him, and he should eventually have some pull power. He's squaring up balls consistently, and even his outs have been hard-hit balls right at fielders. He needs to be firmly on your radar screen.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:47pm

State of THT Fantasy

The season is quickly winding down, but we've still got a lot going on at THT Fantasy. This week, I'm proud to introduce you to two new members of the THTF team.

The first is Mike Silver, who you may know from his work at MVN's Statistically Speaking blog. Mike will be doing player profiles and analysis for us. He'll officially introduce himself to everyone tomorrow, but he sneaks into the action today by tackling this week's Fantasy Baseball Roundtable question, proposed by THT Fantasy.

The second "new" member of the team should actually be a very familiar face for everyone. Your friendly neighborhood psychologist, Marco Fujimoto (who needed to take a leave of absence for personal reasons) is now back and ready to go. You'll start seeing his work every other week starting next Thursday.

Finally, because most fantasy baseball trading deadlines will have passed by next week, the Roster Doctor will be going into hibernation. I'd like to thank everyone who submitted their roster for consideration, and hopefully we were able to help some you improve your teams and bring you a step closer to a fantasy baseball championship.

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:31pm

Fantasy Baseball Roundtable: Do trade pitches work?

This week, it's THT Fantasy's turn to host the Fantasy Baseball Roundtable. The question we asked (thanks to commenter Bookie for giving us the idea last time around):

Have you ever "pitched” or “marketed” a player in a trade and changed a potential trading partner's opinion about the player? Or, conversely, have you ever had you own opinion about a player changed by an opponent's pitch? Or could pushing a player actually have a negative effect and make a deal less attainable?

As fantasy baseball players, I'm sure we've all had trade negotiations before, but honestly, have we ever truly changed our potential trading partner's mind about a player?

Tommy Landry — RotoExperts

Sure, I've pitched players on multiple occasions. That works great with novices, but experienced players (like in all my leagues) see right through it. Personally, I have strong opinions and no one will change that in most cases, unless I simply haven't been paying attention to a particular guy. In fact, when I go to look at the numbers to evaluate if I'm being oversold on someone, that's a critical point in our ability to close a deal. If it appears they're playing games, game over.

Patrick Cain — Albany Times Union

I never try to offer my bait first as I feel it instantly makes the guy less desirable. Instead I'll propose something in writing with a guy just slightly as productive. Then try to get the opposing manager to counter with who he sees as a slight upgrade aka the guy I actually want to unload. This is best when working with guys that aren't stars. This year in my auction I took both Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. Eventually I did need to move Cabrera so I was willing to be forthright with him.
I can't say an opposing player has changed my mind. I have changed others' opinion, but doing that is a case-by-case example.

Jon Williams — Advanced Fantasy Baseball

I never try to change another owner's mind about a player. My pitches simply state the facts with an emphasis on how the suggested transaction would benefit both of us. I find that the savier owners will get defensive when you question their judgment on a player or suggest that they may not understand how to rate a player properly. Instead I simply sell the facts. For example, last off-season I traded Carlos Gomez (at $21 in a 12tm, 5x5 AL-only League) to another owner for a cheap Joba Chamberlain (he was also a serious Red Sox fan which helped) by selling him on a few very true facts - that despite his poor batting the skills the Minnesota Twins were still heavily invested in the future of Gomez, and that he would continue to steal bases at every opportunity and finally that 40 stolen bases, even with a .240 batting average would be useful on the right fantasy team.

Adam Ronis — Newsday

I was able to pitch a trade recently. There was a lot of discussion going on back and forth for quite some time with many different combinations. I was acquiring Prince Fielder as part of the multi-player deal and was sending back Joey Votto to take Fielder's roster spot. I was telling the owner how I wouldn't be surprised Votto might put up better numbers in the second half than Fielder. He seemed to get sold on that because he never proposed Votto in one of the deals; I did. I also had to push Aaron Harang hard since at the time he had just five wins and had to convince the owner that wins are determined by a myriad of factors often beyond a their control. He was pushing for Wandy Rodriguez or Matt Cain, but I wasn't going to do it.

Mike Podhorzer — FantasyPros911

Considering I have made a whopping one trade all season in three leagues, if I ever did successfully change a potential trading partner's opinion about a player, it has departed my memory at this point! Maybe I have been successful at one time in the past, but I really cannot recall. I personally can't stand the whole marketing of a player though. I know the stats, I know the current situation and league standings, I have my own opinion. I couldn't care less what you want to throw out at me and it has never changed my mind in the past, nor do I expect it to change my mind in the future.

In fact, it actually annoys me when owners tell me about who they are offering like I am some newbie who just learned about this game of baseball this year. Because of this, I rarely try marketing my players in trade offers or making comments when I offer a trade though the website. If I did try to pitch my players, I am inferring that my trading partner does not know the players, does not have an opinion himself, does not know where his team needs help or have a clue where he sits in the category standings. That is just insulting, in my opinion. To be honest, if I was ever able to change someone's opinion on a trade, that might be a sign that I need to replace this owner for my league next year!

Mike Silver — The Hardball Times Fantasy

My response would be that pitches are pretty difficult because of the element of suspicion. I don't know for sure if I've ever influenced anyone. I think pitches can help, because they've affected me before, but they never get me to completely revamp my opinion of a player. I've found that you can cast doubt or slightly improve an opinion, but nothing too substantial.

For the readers, your trade partner will always be suspicious of you, so any way to upgrade your credibility is helpful. Be careful of saying too much and make sure that it is framed in a way that the trade seems mutually beneficial. I don't think I've ever thought less of a player because of a pitch. In my experience, the only time it's been hurtful is when it looks like you're trying to dump someone (I made this mistake with Andrew McCutchen this year) either by proposing them multiple times or pushing too hard.

There are a couple scenarios that I think can help readers:

One is for a person who is particularly guarded against trading with you (think of your personal rival in your best league, or Billy Beane with the Red Sox and Kevin Youkilis; I know you've all read Moneyball). I have a fantasy rivalry with my friend Phil in one of my most important leagues. Whenever he suggests a player to me, it upgrades my opinion of the player, but because I know that he wants said player, I become so guarded that it substantially raises my asking price.What would probably work in that situation would be to use a decoy.

First, suggest a lower priority player, then, if you've anticipated the response correctly, you'll have an easier time with the player you really want (because the other person will think that they're not getting worked over or are not giving up too much). These scenarios will always be difficult to deal with, but it will help somewhat.

Another scenario is one that helped me get Lester this year. I asked an owner "what will it take to get Jon Lester?" (while he was slumping, of course), and he listed off a few players. When you know who a different owner likes, it is easier to boost their opinion of that player. This won't lower their asking price, but it should help a lot in preventing them from having doubts about whether the offer is fair. This should increase the likelihood that the offer sticks and that they don't raise their asking price.

Other than that, I've had relatively limited success with pitches, unless you're trading with someone who is really new. In my experience, you can't try to hit home runs, you have to let the trade come to you.

Eriq Gardner - THT Fantasy

EDIT: After reading this post, our own Eriq Gardner had some interesting follow-up ideas that I thought deserved to be shared with everyone:

Interesting that changing a non-novice opponent's mind is perceived as a foolish endeavor by experienced hands. I wonder if that means by extension that a willingness to keep an open mind is perceived as a liability.

Personally, my goal in making a trade offer and pitching a rationale never is to change someone's mind. If that happens, great. But if someone comes back to me and says something like, "No, I can't do that deal. I believe an ace pitcher is more valuable than any hitter," I'm happy to work inside that framework and explore a very different deal that sends a very good pitcher for a more valuable hitter. My goal is to execute a trade that improves my team and I'm more than willing to accept someone else's logic and appear to change my own stance in the interest of that goal.

Interestingly, there have been times when a team witnesses my change of stance and begins to question their own logic, going back to the first offer. I guess one should only practice what they preach.

Concluding thoughts

As I sort of expected, the participants agreed that changing any non-novice opponent's mind about a player is hard to do, at least to any significant extent. What do you guys think? Have you ever been successful in doing this?

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:30pm

What kind of risk-taker are you?

In fantasy baseball, risk-takers abound. But before we throw them all into the same boat, let’s illustrate a difference—there are those who like to play the lottery and then there are those who like to play the stock market.

Lottery players have a very high probability of coming up short but typically don’t stake much investment in their gambles. Stock market players, on the other hand, are willing to put a lot more on the line with a smaller probability of coming up short.

Here’s an example.

I participate in a league where I’ve been bouncing between second and sixth place for the last few weeks. The most competitive categories are ERA and wins. Right now, my team leads most of my competitors in those two categories, but the margin is extremely small. Problem is, in order to catch up to the first place team in the league, I’d need to make a major move in steals, and now my team is being offered Carl Crawford and a good reliever for one of my team’s best pitchers, Adam Wainwright, and a player who was projected to have about three times as many steals as he currently does. Do I do the deal?

Regardless of the answer, my team would be making a risk. Accept the deal as any stock market player would and risk a ton of points in the pitching categories—My team might finish in first, but there's a small chance it could finish in sixth place.

Reject the deal as any lottery player would and gamble on some lower possibility for making up the points differential with the first place team—My team might still finish in first, but more probably second or third.

Behavioral economists have had fun through the years studying different choices on uncertain outcomes. Although this is a realm of study loosely tied into game theory, I’m unaware of any researcher who has taken time to analyze fantasy sports competitions. Instead, they’ve gravitated to games like poker and blackjack and even game shows like “Deal or No Deal.”

Most of the studies I’ve seen seem to indicate that the vast majority of people behave like lottery players when making risky decisions. They prefer wherever possible to avoid the possibility of big losses even if they forsake optimal odds. On the other hand, there’s something in economics that’s coincidentally called “prospect theory,” whereby people evaluate potential gains and losses depending on some psychological reference point. For example, two teams in two different leagues with the exact same trade offer on the table as the one described above might come to different outcomes based on one team having achieved early setbacks and late success versus the other team having achieved early success and recent setbacks.

I also think something like this is good to keep in mind when making an offer to another team. You may believe you are making one that serves the rational interests of your trading partner, but are you selling an equity to someone who prefers a lottery ticket? Are you marketing a low-probability chance to win millions to a team less fearful of losses? Understand someone’s tolerance for seeking or avoiding risk or aptitude for measuring gains and losses and you may begin to get a sense about how to trade with them.

And oh yeah … I took the deal.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 2:58am

The pieces are coming together

As we head towards the home stretch of the fantasy season, let's take a look at some players who can help you make a final push in the standings, or maintain your lead.

Carlos Gonzalez

Speed is always a valuable fantasy commodity and adding a speedster to your team when there are several teams only a few steals ahead of you in the standings can help you gain some much-needed easy points. Rockies outfielder Carlos Gonzalez is looking like he is primed for a great finish to the year and if he continues to get on base at a good clip, the steals should come easy.

As an added bonus with his .173 Iso, he also adds some power into the mix—albeit not home run power but solid gap power that leads to plenty of RBI and run opportunities. A piece of trivia for you: Gonzalez's first seven major league hits were all doubles and that either ties or is the record, someone can check me on that.

When he matures more as a hitter, Gonzalez should be a consistent .300 hitter given his ability to maintain a high BABIP (although definitely not as high as his current .370 rate, think .330-340) and his decently low Triple-A strikeout rate of about 17 percent. So far through his major league time with the A's and Rockies, however, Gonzalez has played more like a .260 hitter than a .300 one. He makes contact with about 75 percent of pitches he swings at (81 percent MLB average) leading to his unacceptable 26 percent K rate.

It is very possible he does hit for a good average the rest of the season because if you look at his strikeout rate over the three months he's played in the majors, you'll will see the obvious negative (in a positive way) trend:


+--------+--------+
| Month  | K Rate |
+--------+--------+
|   June |  31.34 |
|   July |  18.00 |
| August |  12.50 |
+--------+--------+

That August number is through just seven games, but even still the trend is extremely promising. Gonzalez can reasonably be expected to hit .280-plus without having to rely on an inflated BABIP, which makes him an even more attractive option.

With the way the Rockies outfield situation played out, Seth Smith now looks to be getting the short end of the stick and may very well be reduced to a pinch-hitter specialist again. It is unfortunate either Hawpe or Smith did not get traded (because the Rockies ended up being contenders) because I still very much believe in his skills. If players move around in the offseason, Smith could end up being be a great sleeper for next year, but that's a ways away.

Eric Young

If you missed out on Everth Cabrera, a player to keep an eye on is Rockies Triple-A second baseman Eric Young. Take a look at his ridiculous minor league stolen base totals:

+------+-------+----+
| Year | Level | SB |
+------+-------+----+
| 2006 |     A | 87 |
| 2007 |    A+ | 73 |
| 2008 |    AA | 46 |
| 2009 |   AAA | 54 |
+------+-------+----+

There is no guarantee Young will make it to the majors this year, but if he does and is given playing time he is a must add for a lot of teams. As he has steadily risen up the minors he has maintained a batting average of .290 or above, so he would not be a batting average killer either. Unfortunately the Rockies are most likely not going to give Young a chance this season, but you never know.

Rajai on the prowl. (Icon/SMI)

Rajai Davis

For those not too keen on waiting, there is a player named Rajai Davis who is playing as I expect Young would and is in the majors right now. In 22 games since the All-star break, Davis is batting .354 with 10 steals. He won't keep that batting average up, but a .280 average with another 10-15 stolen bases the rest of the way is quite valuable and reasonable.

Wladimir Balentien

Former Mariner prospect-now Cincinnati Red Wladimir Balentien is on a hot streak filling in for the injured Jay Bruce in right field. With nine hits and five walks in his last six games, Balentien is playing rather impressively, though just one of those hits was a home run. In deep mixed leagues and NL-only leagues Balentien is worth a flier to see if he can recapture the glory of his 2007 Triple-A campaign. Until the past week, Balentien has always looked clueless at the plate in the majors. Maybe that is changing.

Travis Snider

It is official, Alex Rios is going to the White Sox for his contract and nothing else. Some people are now turning to Travis Snider, expecting him to finish the season strong.

He is currently mashing the guts out of the ball in Triple-A and may hit for some power in the majors if called up, however, here are two reasons I would stay away from the 21-year-old: 1) He most likely will not get called up until the end of August because the Jays want to get rid of potential Super 2 eligibility. 2) He is still striking out at an alarming rate in Triple-A, meaning he is not plate disciplined enough yet to hit for a respectable average in the majors. An average above .270 would greatly surprise me.

Gio Gonzalez

Gio Gonzalez tends to be very hit-or-miss with his starts, but lately has been more hit than miss. In six starts since the beginning of July, Gonzalez has gone at least six innings and given up two runs or less in four of them. The strikeouts come easily thanks to a devastating curve at the rate of about one per inning. Wins won't come as easily pitching for the A's, although their lineup has looked somewhat revitalized lately, even with the loss of Matt Holliday.

Sometimes Gonzalez is very hittable or wild or both, and gets lit up like onion volcano at Mt. Fuji. But other times he is dominating, and lately he has been his dominating self often enough that he is worth picking up by those looking for a high-reward pitcher.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:53am

Monday, August 10, 2009

In search of new inefficiencies in the fantasy marketplace

Joe Mauer has been the most valuable player in the American League this season, by most accounts. But is he really as good as he's been playing? (Icon/SMI)

As fantasy baseball players, we're always looking for ways to one-up our opponents. We're always looking for an edge, a different way to do things that will separate us from the competition. Over the last eight years or so, "sabermetrics" have grown exponentially in popularity.

Mainstreaming

We've reached the point where UZR/150 is being talked about during Braves broadcasts, HR/FB is being discussed during Diamondbacks broadcasts, and everyone and their mother seems to be using them for fantasy, even if they're not always using the best available or even using them correctly. We're even seeing mainstream sites like CBS and ESPN make mention of once-nerdy stats like BABIP (okay, maybe our continued use of such succinctly-named acronyms as BABIP does still qualify us as nerds).

And judging by a lot of the comments we get here at THT Fantasy, it seems that a good chunk of our readership plays in leagues with owners who are savvy to these more advanced kinds of stats and analysis. There is one concept, however, that not all fantasy owners (or even analysts) appear to fully grasp. And when we notice this sort of thing, it often creates an opportunity for us to get a leg up on our competition.

A possible inefficiency?

What am I talking about? Placing too much emphasis on this year's statistics. I've been seeing this all too often recently, both among my leaguemates and on other sites. I imagine that this is partially due to ignorance and misunderstanding and partially due to human nature.

Most humans are results-driven. Even when we try to use our intellect and stay objective, we often find ourselves looking for ways to explain and justify what has happened, engaging in a form of confirmation bias in the process (for an example of this, see nearly every analyst on earth's reaction to David Ortiz's slow April and May). And because what has just happened is fresh in our minds, we pay more attention to and often place more emphasis on this than on things that have happened months or years in the past. After all, what's happening right now must be truer than what happened last year, right? Wrong. This kind of thinking, I believe, can lead to some faulty conclusions among fantasy owners and analysts.

Why is this thinking incorrect?

My underlying reasoning is based on two things: (1) the importance of utilizing all the information we have about a player and (2) regression to the mean.

Because most all players of interest have been around for a while, we have more than just data from 2009 to work with. While 2009 data is certainly most relevant, seeing as it's most recent, it is incorrect to ignore all the data from previous years entirely. Instead, logically, we should put more emphasis on 2009, less on 2008, even less on 2007, and so on. This isn't a concept many people would intuitively argue with (I don't think, anyway), but in the heat of the season and perhaps out of laziness or lack of sufficient thinking, people will often ignore previous years or at least put too little emphasis on them.

My second point is something called regression to the mean, which has received quite a bit of play around the internet recently. MGL put this concept very succinctly a couple weeks ago:

Anyway, no one mentions the obvious so far. Any player who posts a better than average number in any category for one year or for 100 years is EXPECTED to do worse in any other time period you look at, even if that player’s true talent never changes.

This might sound crazy if you're new to the concept (or maybe even if you're not), but it is indisputably true. To elaborate, read this except from David Gassko's piece from last week:

The important thing to remember is that statistics are just a sampling of an athlete’s true ability; actually, they’re less than that since that true ability constantly varies. But even if we forget about that variation, no number of plate appearances will tell us exactly how good that player is. At a trillion plate appearances, we might have to go out many, many decimal points before the player’s sample numbers and our best estimate of his true talent diverge, but eventually they would.

Because all we have to work with is a sample of a player's true ability, there will always, always be a non-zero chance that any player in baseball is no different than any other player. The chances might be one-in-a-million (or more), but there is a very real, non-zero chance that Barry Bonds was no better than Neifi Perez.

What we must also understand is that every stat stabilizes at its own rate. Some stabilize very quickly, while others take several years. If we use this year's data for some stats, we won't go too wrong, but if we use it for others, we could be way, way off. Batting average, for example, is a stat that takes a long time to stabilize. The terrific Pizza Cutter estimated that it takes roughly 1,000 plate appearances for batting average to stabilize.

Let's look at Ichiro Suzuki, who has posted an incredible .365 average in 472 MLB plate appearances in 2009. If this is all we knew about Ichiro and nothing else, we would be most accurate in guessing his batting average going forward by assuming that he is 32 percent likely to continue hitting at his current rate and 68 percent likely to hit at league average. That would leave us with a weighted expectation of just .298. That's how much pull regression to the mean can have if all we do is look at this year's statistics.

And that brings us back to my first point: the importance of utilizing all the information we have on a player. For almost all players, we have several years to look at, and those years tell us that Ichiro is probably not a sub-.300 hitter. We have over 6,000 PAs prior to this year for Ichiro, which tells us quite a bit about him. In fact, by using all of these PAs in our estimation, we'd be safe in assuming a split of 86 percent Ichiro, 14 percent league average. That would give us a batting average estimation of .324, which is not too far off from Ichiro's career .333 average.

Falling prey

Let's take a look at a few recent examples of placing too much emphasis on this year's stats from some notable fantasy baseball sites. Please do not take this as a shot at any of these sites. I have great respect for each of them, and I'm simply citing these as examples to show how easy it is, even for the best of us, to fall prey to this kind of thinking (and many more sites than just these three do it).

With the Oakland A's last week dealing their best hitter, Matt Holliday, Cabrera was left in a horrible offense in a horrible hitter's park. In Minnesota, he'll be playing in what ranks this season as the AL's best park for offense.

Park factors are one stat that you will go terribly wrong with if you use single-year factors. If we look at David Gassko's park factors (which take multiple years into account and include proper regression to the mean), we see that Minnesota's Metrodome should have a park factor around 100.6 (ever so slightly higher than league average), a far cry from the 2009 factor of 119.2 cited in the article. Because of how regression to the mean works, the Metrodome's running projection would be higher than 100.6 at this point in the season, but it will still be pretty close to neutral.

Here's another one:

With 50 K in 44.1 IP, [Andrew] Bailey throws gas and for the most part, has been able to keep his control in check. His ERA has been helped by a [.250 BABIP], so it will continue to move closer to his 3.73 [ERA estimator of choice]. But the overall skills package from a 25-year-old who barely made the team is impressive. He'll need to keep tabs on his FB rate (47%), but the spacious Oakland park is forgiving in that regard (-11% RS). The challenges of negotiating the closer role over a full season are still ahead, but from the limited data set we have, Bailey seems well-prepared for the task.

This one comes from a highly respected site which usually adds a qualifier for small sample sizes, which makes it a very good example of how easy it is to fall victim to this kind of thinking. No doubt Andrew Bailey has been terrific this year (3.19 LIPS ERA to this point), but we must realize that we're dealing with a guy that no major projection system pegged for any better than an ERA in the low 5.00s at the start of the season. In Double-A last year, he didn't even strike out a batter per inning and he walked 4.6.

Granted, Bailey was a starter for most of his minor league career, but just because he's pitched like a 3.73 ERA pitcher for 44.1 MLB innings this year does not mean we should expect him to regress to (or "move closer to") a 3.73 ERA. Instead, we should expect him to regress to whatever that 3.73 expected ERA changes his running projection to (adjusted for his move to the bullpen, of course), probably something in the mid-to-high 4.00s. This article was published at the end of June, and even after we've seen Bailey's innings total climb to 62.0 , we still only see ZiPS (5.82 preseason projection) project a 4.64 ERA for the rest of 2009.

One more example:

Cordero made just one appearance this week, chucking two scoreless innings against Colorado in an eventual extra-innings loss. Co-Co has a 1.70 ERA on the season, but his xFIP (4.01) tells a different story. The righty has posted his lowest full-season K rate (7.65) since 2000. A .238 BABIP and 4.9 HR/FB rate have hidden the overt signs of decline, but batters are making more contact and swinging at fewer pitches out of the zone.

Has Cordero declined? Yes, but probably not as much as the 7.65 K/9 indicates. ZiPS pegs him for 9.8 the rest of the way and Heater concurs (for the most part) at 8.9. Heater's rest-of-season ERA projection is 3.17, much better than his 4.01 xFIP.

The irony of it all

What's ironic about all this is that most people have moved past using last year's data to pick their players on draft day. Most people are perfectly comfortable using preseason projections—which weight seasons in a declining fashion and include regression to the mean—yet when the heat of the season takes hold, it somehow changes things and makes us feel like we can explain away swings that are occurring in a small sample size (and, yes, four months is a small sample size for most stats, and for all stats in some sense).

Taking advantage of this inefficiency

So what can we do as fantasy owners if we notice our opponents falling into this pattern? Trade away players who are having career years and acquire those who are underperforming, especially if they are of the right age. If a player is having a career year at age 27, the other owners will be much more likely to buy into it than if the player was 37. Pitchers will probably be better than hitters to trade away since things like contact rate and home runs are relatively stable in comparison to ERA or even ERA estimators. Of course, this is all easier said than done.

Taking full advantage of this means finding players who your opponents could realistically believe have taken a legitimate step forward and will maintain it, yet based on sound statistical principles shouldn't be expected to (at least not fully). A few guys like this might be Joe Mauer, Edwin Jackson, and Luke Hochevar. On the flip side, you could try to acquire players who your opponents could realistically believe have taken a step backward. This might include players like Chris Young (the OF), Francisco Liriano, Russell Martin, and Garrett Atkins.

And of course, this won't apply to every player who is overperforming or underperforming. For some players, their history will be too ugly or the player will be too old for even the best 2009 stats to overcome in the minds of fantasy owners. No matter how good Jason Marquis's 3.49 ERA or 3.98 FIP look, he's been too bad in the past and is too old for someone to think that this is his new talent level. At 35 years old, you'll be hard-pressed to find someone convinced Johnny Damon is now a 32 HR hitter.

Concluding thoughts

What do you guys think? Agree with me? Have you noticed your leaguemates engaging in this kind of thinking? What players make good buy or sell targets? And of course, if you have any questions, feel free to ask.

Posted by Derek Carty at 2:00am

Clone Wars: Prince Fielder and Justin Morneau

Given his status as a former MVP, it seems odd to say that Justin Morneau is having a breakout season, but with a ZiPs projection for career highs in home runs, runs, RBIs and batting average, he is having his best year yet. Just a five hour drive away in Milwaukee, his fellow first basemen Prince Fielder is also having a great season. He won't be topping his 50 home run season from 2007, but an OPS over 1.000 has him as one of the best at the position again.

Name                GP    AB    R     HR    RBI   SB    CS    K%      BB%   BABIP   HR/F   P/PA3
Prince Fielder     110   396    69    27    98     2    2   24.50%  15.90%  0.335  19.90%     4
Justin Morneau     109   416    74    28    91     0    0   16.60%  12.20%  0.302  19.50%   3.6

Prince Fielder

MLB: MAY 20 Brewers at Astros
20 May 2009: Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Prince Fielder (28) bats during the Milwaukee Brewers vs. Houston Astros baseball game at Minute Maid Park on Wednesday May 20, 2009 in Houston, Texas. Houston won 6-4. (Icon/SMI)

His value sky rocketed in 2008 and many blamed his "fall" to 34 homers on things like his diet change, but hitting 50 home runs is a big challenge. He is a solid bet to reach 40 homers this year and finish with the best batting average of his career.

Looking at his strikeout rate you can see he has become more of a hacker each year. Since posting a 21 percent strikeout rate in 2007, he recorded rates of 23 percent in 2008 and 24.5 percent this year. This has been balanced by a significant climb in walk rate, going from 9.4 percent in 2006 to 13.6 percent (2007), 12.5 percent (2009) and 15.9 percent (this season). This has pushed his OBP to a career high of .419, but that and his batting average of .303 are supported by a career high BABIP of .342. Expect his average and OBP to drop some before 2009 is over, but still be career highs.

His power has started to settle at the 20 percent HR/F level, which makes him a very good bet for 40 homers given his 45 percent flyball rate. He should be around 40 homers for the next few years, but as with most large first basemen you must be concerned about a quick decline.

Justin Morneau

While he had a great 2006, Morneau did not deserve the MVP that year. However, this season, he could top 130 RBIs and 39 home runs based on his ZiPS projections, which would actually beat his 2006 numbers. His wOBA is over .400 for the first time in his career, though it is still not at an elite level. This has a lot to do with his low OBP and walk rate. His walk rate has increased to 12.2 percent this year, but it is still far from great. His career OBP stands at .353, which trails Fielder's career mark of .379.

Morneau's limitations in getting on base have dragged his runs totals down. Even in his 34 homer season in 2006, he only scored 97 runs, and he has never topped 100. He isn't a horrible run scorer, but in comparison to other first base options he could be better. It is worth noting that Morneau has a shot at his first 100 run season this year, but again, he could be scoring a lot more runs if his walk rate were better.

Conclusion

According to MockDraftCentral.com you could have grabbed Morneau at pick 19 and Fielder at 24. They have supplied top 10 stats this year, making them well worth their draft slots. They play a power position so any down numbers could really hurt their value, but their worst seasons so far have still held very good value.

These two will continue to rank as top five first basemen year in and year out. I would prefer Fielder between the two, as his OBP makes him likely to score more runs. His rising strikeout rate is concerning, but not damaging to his value yet. Both should go in the first two rounds next year, with Fielder being a stronger bet to hold his superb value.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 1:51am

Friday, August 07, 2009

Potential closer Chris Bootcheck?

The Pirates have called up their Triple-A closer, Chris Bootcheck, whose last name is reminiscent of the former major leaguer now minor leaguer Mark Bellhorn. The former Angels first round pick is now 30 years old, but is having a renaissance season in Triple-A. He is striking out 11.29 batters per nine innings and walking just 1.55, good for a 7.29 K/BB ratio.

Assuming he will play a normal relief role I normally would not report such a minor call up, but Rotoworld says this about his situation:

Don't be shocked if the Pirates give him some save opportunities to kick the tires on him.

Currently Matt Capps holds down the Pirates closing job, though he is not having a tremendous season sporting a 5.50 ERA. Even still, I am skeptical the Pirates will throw save chances Bootcheck's way unless Capps really blows up.

If you are desperate for saves and have the roster opening though, you could probably do worse. If you are in a Yahoo league, however, Bootcheck is not even in the player universe yet so you'll have to wait.

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:12pm

Waiver Wire: NL

Eugenio Velez | San Francisco | 2B/OF
YTD: .316/.349/.405
True Talent: .266/.314/.398
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .262 BA, 0.6 SB
Schierholz’s injury opened the door for another youngster there, and Velez has made the most of it, with a 10-game hit streak since his recall, with a .419/.457/.558 line. True Talent is pessimistic that he’ll be producing at an acceptable level in all areas but steals (which he has yet to do in his recent hot streak), and he may not keep that starting gig when Schierholz returns. If he does, his best value for you is at 2B (if he qualifies there with nine games played), since his low power numbers won’t drag so much while you try to pick up those all-important steals. If you want to ride his hot bat in the outfield, that’s your choice, but he’s best suited as a MIF in NL-only leagues 15 teams and deeper, depending on how badly you need those SBs.

Lastings Milledge | Pittsburgh | OF
YTD: .208/.240/.229
True Talent: .277/.345/.425
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .274 BA, 0.8 SB
Milledge is back in the bigs, and ready to prove himself again. He can bring power and speed, but has been struggling with strikeouts, which he didn’t improve upon in his stint in Triple-A (.55 BB/K ratio). Pittsburgh’s young offense is proving better than advertised, and if Milledge can stick near the top of the batting order, he could finally fulfill his promise. Right now, he’s struggled a bit (.542 OPS in 25 PAs with Pittsburgh) but he should prove to be a good add for 8-team NL leagues and mixed leagues 13 teams and deeper. Keeper leagues of almost any size should also consider him for his power/speed potential.

Yusmeiro Petit | Arizona | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 5.81 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.01 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.25 ERA
Petit’s reeled off two starts in a row without surrendering a run, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning last time out. He racks up the strikeouts but also gives up fly balls (45.9 FB%), which often turn into homers at Chase Field (9 of the 12 longballs he’s surrendered have come at home). Keep that in mind going forward, although that one-hitter was at home against Pittsburgh. True Talent sees an improvement in ERA with a fairly consistent K rate down the stretch; if only Arizona could get him a few more wins. That makes him a good play in a 12-team NL league or mixed leagues 15 teams or deeper.

Will Venable | San Diego | OF
YTD: .263/.333/.467
True Talent: .245/.309/.369
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs, 1 RBI, .243 BA, 0.2 SB
Venable looks like another Kyle Blanks, with five homers in his past seven games and a .481/.517/1.037 line. But he’s never shown much pop in his career, so this is clearly an anomaly, and True Talent tells you it won’t last. He needs to cut down on strikeouts to have any value—his BB/K is 0.26 in 2009—which he done during his recent binge, so it won’t be long until opposing pitchers find the holes in his swing. His eventual contributions are pretty fringe-y, but there’s nothing wrong with hitching a ride to see how long his hot streak lasts. Particularly with part-time play, he’s going to settle into an NL-only mold, offering value in very deep leagues of 16-plus teams.

Tom Gorzelanny | Chicago | SP
YTD: 7.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.38 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.71 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 Wins, 8 K, 4.70 ERA
The trade to Chicago earned Gorzo an instant call-up to fill in for Ted Lilly, so (barring a setback) he’s expected to give two starts, at which point he’ll likely head back to the ‘pen or AAA. He looked very good in his one Chicago start, but his True Talent predictions are just above borderline and he’s never been a strikeout guy, so he needs to control walks to succeed. He’s walked 3.1 per 9 in AAA this season, which is just outside acceptable range, and the Cubs are playing well, so he may get the offense to win. If you need a couple of starts from a borderline pitcher with a good shot at a win, roll the dice with Gorzo, but keep his short shelf life in mind.

Ryan Roberts | Arizona | 2B/3B
YTD: .285/.370/.437
True Talent: .247/.326/.388
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .243 BA, 0.3 SB
With the trade of Felipe Lopez, Roberts slid into a platoon with Augie Ojeda at the keystone. The D-backs know that Ojeda’s just an average utility guy, Roberts is a lefty and Hinch likes his scrappy approach, so he’s going to take the bigger chunk of the platoon, and could increase his PT if he continues to hit well. He’s not going to suddenly turn into Ian Kinsler, and he’s too old to show us any new tricks, but he did hit .275/.374/.449 in seven seasons in the minors, so he’s got a little pop and can even swipe a bag or two (46 minor-league SBs and five so far this year). True Talent sees him giving back some of those gains, but even if he only hits his projections, he’s deserving of a roster spot in 14-team NL-only leagues and the deepest of mixed leagues.

Pedro Feliciano | New York | RP
YTD: 8.2 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 3.07 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.45 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.23 ERA
At this point in the year, good closers and setup men are hard to come by, but Feliciano has been one of the steadiest and most-used relievers in baseball, with the stats to prove it. His recent 3 ER, 0.1 IP outing was significant in part because it was the first time he’d give up more than 1 ER in 23 appearances. Even better, True Talent doesn’t see much of a regression coming from this non-situational lefty. He’s an outside possibility to close games if K-Rod goes down, but mostly he’s going to bring in Ks at a decent clip while stabilizing your ratios. He’s probably not available in leagues that count holds, but he makes better roster filler for a fantasy team in contention than a starter with a chance at disaster.

George Sherrill | Los Angeles | RP
YTD: 8.9 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 2.32 ERA
True Talent: 8.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.47 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 3.25 ERA
If you had Sherrill before the trade, you probably dumped him, but like Feliciano, he’s not a bad play for keeping your ratios down. Plus, Broxton has looked strong after a cortisone shot at the All-Star Break, but those wear off, and that toe might come back to haunt him again. The Dodgers traded for Sherrill for a reason—to give them extra Broxton insurance and to keep their bullpen steady—and that’s the same reason you’d want him on your team. He’ll pick up holds, perhaps the occasional save, and deliver good strikeouts and strong ratios regardless.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Adrian Beltre | Seattle | 3B
YTD: .254/.285/365
True Talent: .262/.308/.415
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.6 SB
As with other third basemen with “bad wings” (Chavez, Rolen, etc.), there's a huge concern about whether Beltre's power will return, limiting the team's deadline options, and a yellow flag for fantasy teams. Still, he's a career .270/.325/.455 hitter, and has actually been stealing bases. For his career, he's hit just .249/.304/.405 in Safeco, as is to be expected for a righty power bat. The everyday role makes him valuable in AL-only leagues, but not very.

Neftali Feliz | Texas | RP/SP
YTD: 10.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.52 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Neftali Feliz burst onto the Major-League scene like a Texas Tornado. Not that he's a secret—when Nolan Ryan gushes about a guy's stuff, that's a big deal. But six Ks in his first 3.1 IP have this career starter poised to stage a K-Rod or Bobby Jenks-style coup of the closer's role down the stretch. As for his long-term role in keeper leagues, it's unclear, but he's a guy to get either way. Breaking down in 2009 doesn't suggest great stamina, though he's shown the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games in the past. In a pen role, his fastball has averaged almost 99 mph (AVERAGE!) so far, and he's probably just doing hitters a favor at this point when he shows his other two pitches.

Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles | 2B
YTD: .273/.321/.407
True Talent: .291/.328/.423
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .291 BA, 0.6 SB
Back in '06, Kendrick was coming off his second consecutive .400 OBP, .600 SLG season in the minors. There were huge concerns about his (virtually non-existant) walk rate, but still many saw him as a future batting-champ contender. When he hit .322 in 2007, he was on his way, right? The injuries have sapped his skills to the point where his TT line isn't much different than Maicer Izturis now, and he's nowhere near Maicer's equal on defense. With another two-time .600-in-minors-slugger, Sean Rodriguez, just demoted, Howie's playing time seems more secure, and he's hit .451 since a three-hit game on July 11, so glass-half-full owners who need a second baseman can pick him up in any format. Still a viable keeper.

Casey Kotchman | Boston | 1B
YTD: .281/.353/.408
True Talent: .283/.353/.429
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 0 Runs, 0 RBI, .285 BA, 0.0 SB
While on the theme of ex-Angels phenoms, why not spotlight Boston's new defensive replacement, Casey Kotchman? The “weekly forecast” is a bit light, since Boston will try to get him into the lineup whenever possible, and their team offense is great. There's a slim reason to be optimistic about his offense, in that his spray chart shows when he pulls the ball it's on the ground, but when he goes the other way, it's often a fly ball—which is perfect for abusing The Monster (a la Wade Boggs). Obviously not a mixed-league player, don't be surprised if he's “OK” in deeper AL leagues.

Justin Masterson | Boston | SP
YTD: 8.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 4.32 ERA
True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.33 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 W, 5 K, 4.36
Masterson is actually throwing harder in 2009 than he did last year (up to 92+ on his average fastball). That's resulted in a slightly lower GB%, but he's still flirting with 50%. Skills-wise and opponents-wise (i.e. Not AL East), he's one of the better pitchers to own in the AL now, and worth a pickup in any format. But Cleveland doesn't have any reason to push him, so expect a lot of 5- and 6-IP outings as he reacclimates himself with the SP role. The Cleveland relievers have been so criminal this season, they belong in another sort of “pen,” which will lead to fewer wins and more runs charged to Masterson.

Brian Matusz | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 8.9 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.55 ERA (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
This is how it's supposed to work when teams draft quick-to-majors polished college pitchers. Matusz throws harder than most such guys, explaining his fourth-overall draft status and $3.5 million bonus in 2008. As long as he maintains his excellent control of his devastating curve, he won't be much fun for opposing hitters. As usual, the fact that his division contains some offensive powerhouse teams makes him a dicey fantasy proposition, however. Expect at least 2-3 rough outings the rest of the way. How he responds to those will determine whether he's just another struggling rookie, or worthy of owning in AL-only leagues (and spot starts for mixed leagues). Don't overspend.

Josh Reddick | Boston | OF
YTD: .277/.352/.520 (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
It would be easy to dismiss Josh Reddick for 2009 based just on his good-not-great Double-A stats. But Portland is a tough place in which to hit (especially for power), and two of his hard-hitting teammates there raved about how well this guy could rake. Obviously, there's no clear role for Reddick in Boston if both Drew and Bay are healthy, but they haven't been. And Reddick's arm is so good that it will have to be tempting for Francona to consider him ahead of Brian Anderson. For example, in his 167 RF games, Reddick has racked up a mind-boggling 37 assists. Before this season, he profiled as a Garrett Anderson sort of high-average/decent SLG run producer with limited OBP, but has exchanged some hits for walks and more ISO (and more K's) this year.

Josh Roenicke | Toronto | RP
YTD: 10.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.52 ERA
True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.51 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 Saves, 5.00 ERA
Sure, Roenicke just turned 27, but this is an instance where lack of experience improves the outlook. His pro debut was in 2006, and he blew through the minors in just 159 IP. He's touched 100 on guns before, and normally works well into the upper 90s. He's your standard two-pitch, big-body flamethrower, and has lowered his walk rate every year of pro ball—to just 1.9 BB/9 this year in AAA. It's unclear why Cincy thought he was expendable, but we're going to trust Toronto's track record with pitcher evaluations here. Has a good chance to be the closer in 2010.

Carlos Santana | Cleveland | C
YTD: .283/.407/.530 (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
“The Next Vic Martinez”? Switch-hitting Carlos Santana has outgrown Double-A. Suffice it to say that he should be owned in keeper leagues, and don't be surprised if he's a good option in September. He won't have Martinez's batting average, but has power and on-base to spare. Wyatt Toregas hit Double-A pitching last year, and was “OK” at Triple-A this year. All three of Shoppach, Toregas, and Marson are probably in the mold of “great backup” or “marginal starter” quality catchers. There are several teams who could use one of them.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 1:59am

Thursday, August 06, 2009

The nominees for minor league player of the year

Every August I start to fully break down the statistical season. The results lead to multiple awards and accolades, but none more prestigious than minor league player of the year. Most Augusts bring a handful of monster seasons to light, but this season has been different. Standout starting pitchers have been promoted to the majors at an alarming rate, and the elite position players have been hit with injuries. Those circumstances result in a cut in production. It will be tough to pinpoint just one player this year.

The candidates for minor league player of the year:

Brian Matusz
Matusz dominated Single-A competition, prompting a bump up to Double-A Bowie. A dominant stint there solidified his status among the game's top prospects. Over eight starts in the Eastern League Matusz went 7-0 with a 1.55 ERA. In a surprising move, Baltimore brought him up to test his stuff against big league competition this week. If he stays in the big leagues for the rest of the year he will lose rookie status. And, unfortunately, when it comes to awards season, it may be hard to justify handing the minor league player of the year award to a young man that has only pitched 113 innings over 19 starts. He is the front runner, though.

Jesus Montero
Montero will miss the rest of the season, but his impact has been felt. He won't win, due to the injury cutting into his stats, but he deserves the recognition. He has been playing the toughest position on the field, and been making progress in that regard, while his offense has ascended to a tremendous level. Perhaps most impressive of all, this 19-year-old has just 47 strikeouts in 347 at-bats.

Desmond Jennings
Jennings' tremendous talent has materialized in 2009. The walks and steals are up, and so is his lead-off hitting potential. He reminds me so much of Dexter Fowler, but Tampa Bay is hoping that his power potential is even higher than Fowler's. Yet his power is not fully there right now, and that will hinder his shot at award season hardware. But he was recently promoted to Triple-A Durham, and if the stats keep pouring in he could win by default.

Jason Heyward
Various injuries have hindered Heyward's statistical season, but when he has been on the field few have matched his production. The Braves' young star may find himself at the top of this list if he can put together a monster August, which is certainly within his capabilities. I have been hankering for more steals out of him, but his power, contact skills, and plate discipline leave little room for complaint.

Madison Bumgarner
Madman successfully carried over his unreal Single-A performance from last year. High-A San Jose didn't provide much of a challenge, but Double-A Connecticut has at least slowed down his utter dominance. He has a 2.01 ERA over 76 innings there, but his strikeouts are down and his walks have trended upward. The young man just turned 20 years old and has been fantastic, but not the shoo-in minor league MVP some were expecting. Not unless his strikeout rate goes through the roof, which is unlikely this late in the season.

Still in the picture:
Chris Tillman
Christian Friedrich
Eric Young
Travis Wood
Michael Taylor

Posted by Matt Hagen at 3:20am (8) Comments

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Compatiblity matching

The baseball statistics available freely online have advanced greatly over the past few years. As fantasy players, it is important to keep up with the research going on in the "real" aspect of baseball and continually try to apply it to fantasy baseball.

One of the leaders of the movement, FanGraphs, now has Pitch Type Linear Weights that show the pitches individual pitchers are better at throwing, and which pitches individual batters are better at hitting. (Click here for the accompanying explanation article by Dave Allen.) Taking at quick glance at Mark Teixeira's FanGraphs player page shows the following information:

+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
| Mark Teixeira Pitch Type Values                                                     |
+--------+----------------+------+------+------+-----++-------+-------+-------+-------+
| Season | Team	          | wFB	 | wSL  | wCB  | wCH || wFB/C | wSL/C | wCB/C | wCH/C |
+--------+----------------+------+------+------+-----++-------+-------+-------+-------+
|   2006 | Rangers        | 20.8 | -0.7 |  0.8 | 5.6 ||	 1.24 | -0.36 |  0.32 |  1.05 |
|   2007 | Rangers/Braves |   31 | 4.5  |  0.9 | 0.4 ||  2.43 |  2.36 |  0.48 |   0.1 |
|   2008 | Braves/Angels  |   39 | 1.3  |  3.1 | 5.3 ||  2.46 |  0.43 |  1.54 |  1.49 |
|   2009 | Yankees	  | 24.3 | -1.5 | -1.1 |   0 ||   2.5 | -1.02 | -0.63 | -0.01 |
+--------+----------------+------+------+------+-----++-------+-------+-------+-------+

The numbers on the left of the divide show in total how many runs Teixeira has earned hitting fastballs, which for 2009 has been 24.3 runs. On the right side, where the column headers have a "/C" after them, the numbers show how many runs a player earns on a certain pitch per 100 pitches. For Mark Teixeira in 2009, that number is 2.5 runs per 100 fastballs.

Casey Blake connecting for a home run on what was most likely either a fastball or change-up. (Icon/SMI)

For these stats I believe 0 is average, positive means a player is good at hitting that pitch, and negative means the batter struggles with the pitch. Messing around with the leaderboards will help give you a relative context of how good a 2.5 wFB/C is.

Although extremely interesting, keep in mind the numbers are not perfect. The pitch classifications FanGraphs uses are not manually adjusted and no tests have been done to my knowledge on the stability of the pitch value numbers. Also the methodology behind the values is still somewhat of a work in progress, but nevertheless they can still used for fantasy purposes.

Most simply, when deciding which batter to start of two, besides looking just at the skill and handedness of the opposing pitchers, you can also check out the pitches they are better at throwing and the pitches your batters hit better.

For example, let's say you own Cody Ross who has pretty consistently hit change-ups well throughout his career. Some nights he starts for your team and other nights he sits one out. Let's say tonight the Marlins are playing the Astros and Wandy Rodriguez is pitching. Taking a look at his Pitch Value numbers, he historically has a below-average change-up and still throws it somewhat often at 10 percent of the time.

Tonight, then, would be a time to make sure Ross is in your starting lineup because of the increased possibility of him pounding one of Wandy's change-ups out of the yard, or at least what FanGraphs—as provided by BIS—is classifying as a change-up.

In terms of importance, I would rank this below matching up handedness and skill of the opposing pitcher, simply because I do not really know how effective mixing and matching batters to pitchers by individual pitch is. Unfortunately, I did not invest the time yet to find out, so for today that question will be left unanswered.

Instead I'll leave you with what is possibly new idea and if it's not new, feel free to tell me in the comments how you have been using it.

Posted by Paul Singman at 2:03am

Designing a better league

A 162-game baseball season is a marathon. Unfortunately, among the millions who participate in fantasy baseball, a good portion are sprinters who run out of steam at midseason and tend to limp toward the finish line.

Can we blame them? By August, fantasy leagues are populated with team owners who have no hope of finishing first. Meanwhile, there’s more important things to attend to—like watching crazy YouTube videos or the start of the football season.

Unfortunately, orphaned fantasy teams create havoc. In Head-to-Head leagues, some teams may get into the playoffs and others may miss out on the basis of scheduling luck. In rotisserie leagues, a non-competitive team is liable to give away free points and influence the final standings.

The advent of keeper leagues was supposed to offer some salvation to the sin of negligence by promoting ongoing attention to one’s team. Sleep in September and potentially miss out on a call-up who might help a team rebound the following season. But most keeper leagues tend to exacerbate the problem with so-called “dump deals,” whereby out-of-competition teams trade their superstars for better keeper prospects. Once a team has forfeited their best players, they become even more unlikely to pay attention during the final weeks of the season.

Last week on THT Fantasy, Jonathan Halket covered the controversies surrounding dump trades, but for all the acrimony these trades inspire, I believe the larger issue was missed. Dealing with issues like fairness and free markets is all good and fine, but are we sure that fantasy baseball has set up the right kinds of incentives to drive market participants toward the finish line?

In the last couple of years, I’ve advocated change in the leagues in which I participate. My goal has been to minimize the controversies entailing the fairness of trades, to create a system that isn’t too rulebook onerous, and most importantly, to approach the problem as any good economist would—by focusing squarely on incentives.

Right now, in most leagues, there’s no incentive to compete for many teams. Right now, in many keeper leagues, there’s no incentive for those who find themselves out of competition to hold onto star athletes. That’s the target for improvement.

Here are examples of changes we’ve made in my leagues.

I participate in a 20-team H2H keeper league. Each team has a 30-man roster and an additional reserve list of minor league players. With approximately 760 players on rosters, you wouldn’t expect to find any singular team in this league fielding All-Stars at every position, but thanks to the emergence of “dump deals,” that’s exactly what’s happened in past years.

So we decided to change things this past offseason by instituting a new incentive system. Every team that misses out on the playoffs competes in a consolation tournament. The winner of this tournament gets an extra keeper. In addition, similar to real-life Major League Baseball’s Elias Rankings on free agents, teams in my fantasy league are allowed to cash in superstars at the end of the season for picks in the league’s minor league draft. Of course, in order to have a good shot in the consolation tournament and in order to take advantage of consolation draft picks, teams need to hold onto superstars—not dump them in any trade.

I also participate in a 16-team roto keeper auction league. Similarly, dump deals used to bedevil this league and many teams lost interest.

So we decided to offer any “out of money” team that improves its standing after the All-Star break a discount on a player’s keeper price. For example, Team X buys Albert Pujols for $33. Team X is in last place at the All-Star break. Instead of trading Pujols for Jason Heyward, Team X keeps Pujols and has better luck in the second half, improving his points total by 33 percent. As a result, Team X gets to take 33 percent off the price of any of his keepers. So if Team X wants to keep Pujols, the salary is only $22, making the Cardinals All-Star a phenomenally attractive keeper. This also mirrors real-life baseball, as many free agents become more likely to sign contracts with teams showing competitive fight.

So far, the discount keeper rule has been a wild success. The consolation tournament and draft pick exchange rules have only had moderate impact. We’re still tinkering around the edges to get things right.

If there’s a takeaway here, it’s this: If a dispute comes up in your league, make sure you examine the root causes of the dispute. There are too many legislators and lawyers in leagues, but not enough economists. Considering fantasy baseball is a stats-obsessed endeavor, that’s ironic.

***

On another note, I’m holding the first mock draft of the 2010 season. I’m doing this in order to help teams sort through prospective values as they look to trade this year with next year in mind. I’m even giving away a prize. If you are interested in participating, find details on my Website.

Posted by Eriq Gardner at 1:59am

Roster Doctor

From Dan:

Twelve-team, head-to-head, non-auction, five-keepers-per-season league with the following offensive categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OPS.

My questions center around Mark Reynolds. Almost every single one of his peripherals suggest that his numbers are due for a significant drop-off, most notably homers, average, and, consequently, OPS. I'm currently in fifth place and, while I could certainly make a late-season run, the chances of winning my league outright are not great at this point. With the trade deadline looming and Reynolds' value at an all-time high, should I ship him off for a more consistent, top-notch keeper, or stash him away until next season in the hopes that his talent is actually as good as his fantasy stats currently indicate?

If this question isn't appropriate for the Roster Doctor column, please feel free to send it to one of your esteemed colleagues who might be interested in providing his/her opinion.

C Russell Martin
1B Ryan Howard
2B Brian Roberts
3B Mark Reynolds
SS Miguel Tejada
OF Adam Dunn
OF Nelson Cruz
OF Juan Rivera
UT Jimmy Rollins
UT Russell Branyan

BN Ian Stewart
BN Josh Willingham
BN Seth Smith

(Pitching categories are W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP.)

SP Javier Vazquez
SP Johan Santana
SP Jered Weaver
SP James Shields
RP Huston Street
RP Brian Fuentes
RP Leo Nunez
RP Kiko Calero
P Octavio Dotel
P Daniel Bard

BN Joe Blanton
BN Jorge de la Rosa

DL Jordan Zimmermann
DL LaTroy Hawkins

Dan,

If you think that your chances of winning are slim or none, then, given that your league lets you keep five players at no cost (in terms of salary or draft picks), you should try and get the best five players that you can possibly trade for. Package players. Empty your roster of all non-keeper but valuable players. Do anything to get the best five that you can.

As it presently stands, your roster has many borderline keeper candidates. Certainly Howard and probably Santana are two to keep. I'd throw Rollins in as a keeper. Then, unless your particularly high on either Martin or Roberts, you'd probably keep two of Cruz, Dunn and Reynolds. Of the three, Reynolds is the one that is probably most overachieving this year.

As you rightly noted, his home run to fly ball rate at 25 percent is high enough to make you cry. But even if he regresses to Adam Dunn's 21 percent level, he'd still match Dunn in home runs. Both Reynolds and Cruz give you stolen bases. Reynolds runs more often than Cruz, but gets caught more often as well. So Reynolds' green light may turn pinkish. Surprisingly, each of them has batted for a relatively high average this year. In the end, I'd probably keep Reynolds or Cruz over Dunn (depending on health).

I would certainly see what you can get in the trade market for each of those three players. At this point in the season, owners in a position to win should be willing to trade overall value for help in particular categories. So, look for owners that need help in certain categories and pitch your offer accordingly. Perhaps one team needs power and is willing to give up an Ichiro Suzuki or even a Carl Crawford to get it. This doesn't just apply to those three players either. Vazquez could really help a team in need of strikeouts and might give you a Joe Nathan in exchange.

Posted by Jonathan Halket at 1:55am

Monday, August 03, 2009

Clone Wars: Michael Young and Pablo Sandoval

Coming into 2009 Michael Young was a shortstop in decline moving to a corner infield position. He still has value as a shortstop, but many expected his value to collapse for 2010 and beyond.

Pablo Sandoval was a sleeper coming into 2009 with the potential for catcher eligibility. He has yet to get his five games at catcher, but has supplied very good numbers at the corner infield positions in his first full year. How similar are this weeks clones and what can their differences tell us?

Name                GP     AB     R      HR     RBI    SB     CS     K%     BB%    BABIP   HR/F   P/PA
Micheal Young       99    400     58     16     47      7      2   16.50%  8.30%   0.356  14.20%    3.7
Pablo Sandoval      98    403     44     16     63      4      2   15.40%  6.80%   0.347  16.20%    3.4

Michael Young

Moving to third base made Young a forgotten player this year. He has never had an OPS over .900 in his career, getting to .899 in his 2005 season. That was also the last time he topped 20 homers. Since that year his power has dropped and his strikeout rate has gone from 13 percent to 16.5 percent.

His ability to hit line drives has always been one of his better skills, with a career line drive rate of 24.9 percent. This drives a .341 BABIP, which allows him to maintain a .350 career OBP even though his walk rate is not elite. Unfortunately BABIP fluctuations from season to season lead to drops in his OBP and has limited his run totals. He has averaged 99 runs in per 162 games in his career.

While his runs totals are limited, his five category numbers have been extremely consistent. His production is great at shortstop, but at third you need more than an above average, five category guy. You need a power bat. His return to his 2005 level of production has made him a viable option again. He won't be an RBI option, even with 20-plus homers this year since he bats in the two and three slots in the lineup, but he can be a solid fpir category guy at the hot corner.

Defense isn't usually a big factor in fantasy decision, but poor defense forced Young to move to third. So far it has worked out, but his defense at third has been poor as well. He has a -13.9 UZR/150 so far at third this year and a career -13.5 UZR/150 at short stop. With the money owed he isn't going to the bench and his offense this year has more than made up for this, but if the offense falls up his playing time could be troublesome going forward.

Pablo Sandoval

MLB: JUL 26 Giants at Rockies
July 26, 2009: Giants third baseman Pablo Sandoval during a regular season game between the San Francisco Giants and the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field in Denver, Colorado. The Rockies beat the Giants 4-2. (Icon/SMI)

So many saw Sandoval as the huge sleeper who could get catcher eligibility by the end of May. Someone who could hit .300 and with 20 homers at catcher is always a valuable commodity, but there was concern that he might not play enough at catcher. He likely won't get the two games he still needs to get eligibility in most leagues this year and is unlikely to play as a catcher in the future.

Surprisingly, he has remained valuable, with a line of .324/.372/.551 so far this year. The contact numbers look very much like Young's so far. He makes good contact and could use some work on his walk rate, but his solid BABIP has helped make him a .300 hitter.

His power is still growing, but as a groundball hitter he will have trouble topping 30 homers in AT&T Park. He has a groundball rate of 46.9 percent this year, which is very similar to Michael Young's career rate of 45.3 percent. Sandoval won't be leaving San Francisco any time soon, but playing in the NL West has to limit his power numbers.

Sandoval has become a fan favorite this year and looks like an established member of the Giants lineup for the next four to five years. He has a body that might not age very well—he has been called "22 going on 30" by Dave Cameron—but has earned him the nickname "Kung Fu Panda."

Conclusion

They may look alike this year statistically, but Sandoval has the better chance to maintain his numbers and value worthy of a third basemen. Young is going to be a very risky pick next year at third base, while Sandoval should be a solid top 10 option. For the rest of 2009 though, they look fairly equal, with Young getting more runs and Sandoval getting more RBIs.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 12:33am (0) Comments

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Monday, August 31, 2009

Sunday, August 30, 2009

Raul Ibanez

Andre Ethier

Conclusion

Friday, August 28, 2009

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Kila Ka'aihue

Hector Rondon

Lightning Round

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Concluding thoughts

Monday, August 24, 2009

Gavin Floyd

John Danks

Conclusion

Sunday, August 23, 2009

Friday, August 21, 2009

Thursday, August 20, 2009

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

The Past

The Present

The Future

The Skinny

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

Friday, August 14, 2009

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Closers in keeper leagues

Last year's results

The list

Explanations

Teams in the market for closers

My choices

Concluding thoughts

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Tommy Landry — RotoExperts

Patrick Cain — Albany Times Union

Jon Williams — Advanced Fantasy Baseball

Adam Ronis — Newsday

Mike Podhorzer — FantasyPros911

Mike Silver — The Hardball Times Fantasy

Eriq Gardner - THT Fantasy

Concluding thoughts

Carlos Gonzalez

Eric Young

Rajai Davis

Wladimir Balentien

Travis Snider

Gio Gonzalez

Monday, August 10, 2009

Mainstreaming

A possible inefficiency?

Why is this thinking incorrect?

Falling prey

The irony of it all

Taking advantage of this inefficiency

Concluding thoughts

Prince Fielder

Justin Morneau

Conclusion

Friday, August 07, 2009

Thursday, August 06, 2009

Tuesday, August 04, 2009

Monday, August 03, 2009

Michael Young

Pablo Sandoval

Conclusion