THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:12pm

Waiver Wire: NL

Eugenio Velez | San Francisco | 2B/OF
YTD: .316/.349/.405
True Talent: .266/.314/.398
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 1 Runs, 1 RBI, .262 BA, 0.6 SB
Schierholz’s injury opened the door for another youngster there, and Velez has made the most of it, with a 10-game hit streak since his recall, with a .419/.457/.558 line. True Talent is pessimistic that he’ll be producing at an acceptable level in all areas but steals (which he has yet to do in his recent hot streak), and he may not keep that starting gig when Schierholz returns. If he does, his best value for you is at 2B (if he qualifies there with nine games played), since his low power numbers won’t drag so much while you try to pick up those all-important steals. If you want to ride his hot bat in the outfield, that’s your choice, but he’s best suited as a MIF in NL-only leagues 15 teams and deeper, depending on how badly you need those SBs.

Lastings Milledge | Pittsburgh | OF
YTD: .208/.240/.229
True Talent: .277/.345/.425
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .274 BA, 0.8 SB
Milledge is back in the bigs, and ready to prove himself again. He can bring power and speed, but has been struggling with strikeouts, which he didn’t improve upon in his stint in Triple-A (.55 BB/K ratio). Pittsburgh’s young offense is proving better than advertised, and if Milledge can stick near the top of the batting order, he could finally fulfill his promise. Right now, he’s struggled a bit (.542 OPS in 25 PAs with Pittsburgh) but he should prove to be a good add for 8-team NL leagues and mixed leagues 13 teams and deeper. Keeper leagues of almost any size should also consider him for his power/speed potential.

Yusmeiro Petit | Arizona | SP
YTD: 7.5 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 5.81 ERA
True Talent: 7.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 5.01 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 5.2 IP, 0.3 Wins, 4 K, 5.25 ERA
Petit’s reeled off two starts in a row without surrendering a run, taking a no-hitter into the eighth inning last time out. He racks up the strikeouts but also gives up fly balls (45.9 FB%), which often turn into homers at Chase Field (9 of the 12 longballs he’s surrendered have come at home). Keep that in mind going forward, although that one-hitter was at home against Pittsburgh. True Talent sees an improvement in ERA with a fairly consistent K rate down the stretch; if only Arizona could get him a few more wins. That makes him a good play in a 12-team NL league or mixed leagues 15 teams or deeper.

Will Venable | San Diego | OF
YTD: .263/.333/.467
True Talent: .245/.309/.369
Next Week Forecast: 0.3 HR, 2 Runs, 1 RBI, .243 BA, 0.2 SB
Venable looks like another Kyle Blanks, with five homers in his past seven games and a .481/.517/1.037 line. But he’s never shown much pop in his career, so this is clearly an anomaly, and True Talent tells you it won’t last. He needs to cut down on strikeouts to have any value—his BB/K is 0.26 in 2009—which he done during his recent binge, so it won’t be long until opposing pitchers find the holes in his swing. His eventual contributions are pretty fringe-y, but there’s nothing wrong with hitching a ride to see how long his hot streak lasts. Particularly with part-time play, he’s going to settle into an NL-only mold, offering value in very deep leagues of 16-plus teams.

Tom Gorzelanny | Chicago | SP
YTD: 7.3 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.38 ERA
True Talent: 6.3 K/9, 1.5 K/BB, 4.71 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 11.2 IP, 0.7 Wins, 8 K, 4.70 ERA
The trade to Chicago earned Gorzo an instant call-up to fill in for Ted Lilly, so (barring a setback) he’s expected to give two starts, at which point he’ll likely head back to the ‘pen or AAA. He looked very good in his one Chicago start, but his True Talent predictions are just above borderline and he’s never been a strikeout guy, so he needs to control walks to succeed. He’s walked 3.1 per 9 in AAA this season, which is just outside acceptable range, and the Cubs are playing well, so he may get the offense to win. If you need a couple of starts from a borderline pitcher with a good shot at a win, roll the dice with Gorzo, but keep his short shelf life in mind.

Ryan Roberts | Arizona | 2B/3B
YTD: .285/.370/.437
True Talent: .247/.326/.388
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 2 Runs, 2 RBI, .243 BA, 0.3 SB
With the trade of Felipe Lopez, Roberts slid into a platoon with Augie Ojeda at the keystone. The D-backs know that Ojeda’s just an average utility guy, Roberts is a lefty and Hinch likes his scrappy approach, so he’s going to take the bigger chunk of the platoon, and could increase his PT if he continues to hit well. He’s not going to suddenly turn into Ian Kinsler, and he’s too old to show us any new tricks, but he did hit .275/.374/.449 in seven seasons in the minors, so he’s got a little pop and can even swipe a bag or two (46 minor-league SBs and five so far this year). True Talent sees him giving back some of those gains, but even if he only hits his projections, he’s deserving of a roster spot in 14-team NL-only leagues and the deepest of mixed leagues.

Pedro Feliciano | New York | RP
YTD: 8.2 K/9, 3.6 K/BB, 3.07 ERA
True Talent: 7.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.45 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.0 Saves, 3.23 ERA
At this point in the year, good closers and setup men are hard to come by, but Feliciano has been one of the steadiest and most-used relievers in baseball, with the stats to prove it. His recent 3 ER, 0.1 IP outing was significant in part because it was the first time he’d give up more than 1 ER in 23 appearances. Even better, True Talent doesn’t see much of a regression coming from this non-situational lefty. He’s an outside possibility to close games if K-Rod goes down, but mostly he’s going to bring in Ks at a decent clip while stabilizing your ratios. He’s probably not available in leagues that count holds, but he makes better roster filler for a fantasy team in contention than a starter with a chance at disaster.

George Sherrill | Los Angeles | RP
YTD: 8.9 K/9, 3.0 K/BB, 2.32 ERA
True Talent: 8.9 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 3.47 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.2 Saves, 3.25 ERA
If you had Sherrill before the trade, you probably dumped him, but like Feliciano, he’s not a bad play for keeping your ratios down. Plus, Broxton has looked strong after a cortisone shot at the All-Star Break, but those wear off, and that toe might come back to haunt him again. The Dodgers traded for Sherrill for a reason—to give them extra Broxton insurance and to keep their bullpen steady—and that’s the same reason you’d want him on your team. He’ll pick up holds, perhaps the occasional save, and deliver good strikeouts and strong ratios regardless.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Waiver Wire: AL

Adrian Beltre | Seattle | 3B
YTD: .254/.285/365
True Talent: .262/.308/.415
Next Week Forecast: 0.6 HR, 3 R, 3 RBI, .253 BA, 0.6 SB
As with other third basemen with “bad wings” (Chavez, Rolen, etc.), there's a huge concern about whether Beltre's power will return, limiting the team's deadline options, and a yellow flag for fantasy teams. Still, he's a career .270/.325/.455 hitter, and has actually been stealing bases. For his career, he's hit just .249/.304/.405 in Safeco, as is to be expected for a righty power bat. The everyday role makes him valuable in AL-only leagues, but not very.

Neftali Feliz | Texas | RP/SP
YTD: 10.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.52 ERA
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
Neftali Feliz burst onto the Major-League scene like a Texas Tornado. Not that he's a secret—when Nolan Ryan gushes about a guy's stuff, that's a big deal. But six Ks in his first 3.1 IP have this career starter poised to stage a K-Rod or Bobby Jenks-style coup of the closer's role down the stretch. As for his long-term role in keeper leagues, it's unclear, but he's a guy to get either way. Breaking down in 2009 doesn't suggest great stamina, though he's shown the ability to maintain his velocity deep into games in the past. In a pen role, his fastball has averaged almost 99 mph (AVERAGE!) so far, and he's probably just doing hitters a favor at this point when he shows his other two pitches.

Howie Kendrick | Los Angeles | 2B
YTD: .273/.321/.407
True Talent: .291/.328/.423
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 HR, 3 Runs, 3 RBI, .291 BA, 0.6 SB
Back in '06, Kendrick was coming off his second consecutive .400 OBP, .600 SLG season in the minors. There were huge concerns about his (virtually non-existant) walk rate, but still many saw him as a future batting-champ contender. When he hit .322 in 2007, he was on his way, right? The injuries have sapped his skills to the point where his TT line isn't much different than Maicer Izturis now, and he's nowhere near Maicer's equal on defense. With another two-time .600-in-minors-slugger, Sean Rodriguez, just demoted, Howie's playing time seems more secure, and he's hit .451 since a three-hit game on July 11, so glass-half-full owners who need a second baseman can pick him up in any format. Still a viable keeper.

Casey Kotchman | Boston | 1B
YTD: .281/.353/.408
True Talent: .283/.353/.429
Next Week Forecast: 0.1 HR, 0 Runs, 0 RBI, .285 BA, 0.0 SB
While on the theme of ex-Angels phenoms, why not spotlight Boston's new defensive replacement, Casey Kotchman? The “weekly forecast” is a bit light, since Boston will try to get him into the lineup whenever possible, and their team offense is great. There's a slim reason to be optimistic about his offense, in that his spray chart shows when he pulls the ball it's on the ground, but when he goes the other way, it's often a fly ball—which is perfect for abusing The Monster (a la Wade Boggs). Obviously not a mixed-league player, don't be surprised if he's “OK” in deeper AL leagues.

Justin Masterson | Boston | SP
YTD: 8.5 K/9, 2.7 K/BB, 4.32 ERA
True Talent: 7.3 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 4.33 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 6.0 IP, 0.4 W, 5 K, 4.36
Masterson is actually throwing harder in 2009 than he did last year (up to 92+ on his average fastball). That's resulted in a slightly lower GB%, but he's still flirting with 50%. Skills-wise and opponents-wise (i.e. Not AL East), he's one of the better pitchers to own in the AL now, and worth a pickup in any format. But Cleveland doesn't have any reason to push him, so expect a lot of 5- and 6-IP outings as he reacclimates himself with the SP role. The Cleveland relievers have been so criminal this season, they belong in another sort of “pen,” which will lead to fewer wins and more runs charged to Masterson.

Brian Matusz | Baltimore | SP
YTD: 8.9 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 1.55 ERA (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
This is how it's supposed to work when teams draft quick-to-majors polished college pitchers. Matusz throws harder than most such guys, explaining his fourth-overall draft status and $3.5 million bonus in 2008. As long as he maintains his excellent control of his devastating curve, he won't be much fun for opposing hitters. As usual, the fact that his division contains some offensive powerhouse teams makes him a dicey fantasy proposition, however. Expect at least 2-3 rough outings the rest of the way. How he responds to those will determine whether he's just another struggling rookie, or worthy of owning in AL-only leagues (and spot starts for mixed leagues). Don't overspend.

Josh Reddick | Boston | OF
YTD: .277/.352/.520 (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
It would be easy to dismiss Josh Reddick for 2009 based just on his good-not-great Double-A stats. But Portland is a tough place in which to hit (especially for power), and two of his hard-hitting teammates there raved about how well this guy could rake. Obviously, there's no clear role for Reddick in Boston if both Drew and Bay are healthy, but they haven't been. And Reddick's arm is so good that it will have to be tempting for Francona to consider him ahead of Brian Anderson. For example, in his 167 RF games, Reddick has racked up a mind-boggling 37 assists. Before this season, he profiled as a Garrett Anderson sort of high-average/decent SLG run producer with limited OBP, but has exchanged some hits for walks and more ISO (and more K's) this year.

Josh Roenicke | Toronto | RP
YTD: 10.6 K/9, 2.6 K/BB, 3.52 ERA
True Talent: 8.2 K/9, 1.9 K/BB, 4.51 ERA
Next Week Forecast: 0.4 Saves, 5.00 ERA
Sure, Roenicke just turned 27, but this is an instance where lack of experience improves the outlook. His pro debut was in 2006, and he blew through the minors in just 159 IP. He's touched 100 on guns before, and normally works well into the upper 90s. He's your standard two-pitch, big-body flamethrower, and has lowered his walk rate every year of pro ball—to just 1.9 BB/9 this year in AAA. It's unclear why Cincy thought he was expendable, but we're going to trust Toronto's track record with pitcher evaluations here. Has a good chance to be the closer in 2010.

Carlos Santana | Cleveland | C
YTD: .283/.407/.530 (AA)
True Talent: n/a
Next Week Forecast: n/a
“The Next Vic Martinez”? Switch-hitting Carlos Santana has outgrown Double-A. Suffice it to say that he should be owned in keeper leagues, and don't be surprised if he's a good option in September. He won't have Martinez's batting average, but has power and on-base to spare. Wyatt Toregas hit Double-A pitching last year, and was “OK” at Triple-A this year. All three of Shoppach, Toregas, and Marson are probably in the mold of “great backup” or “marginal starter” quality catchers. There are several teams who could use one of them.

True Talent and Next Week Forecasts courtesy of Heater Magazine.

Posted by Rob McQuown at 1:59am

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