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THT's Fantasy Archives
Wednesday, September 09, 2009
This week I’m going to delve a bit deeper and look at some players who project to be drafted outside next year's top 50. These players were seen as pretty reliable producers but have disappointed this year. Some of these players may have even been drafted in the top 50 this season. I believe all the players discussed here are good bets to bounce back, to varying degrees. Without speculating on potential keeper structures out there, suffice to say that although these players did not produce to their draft positions this year, if you were able to acquire them on the cheap, they may be worth considering going into next season.
You may notice a trend in that the position players discussed in this article are better counting numbers producers than they are percentage players. This is not a coincidence and should be considered yet another lesson in being cognizant of the peripherals underlying a player’s superficial star-level production. Beware of the reliability of poor percentage players.
Hamels is having, superficially, a pedestrian season to say the least. Those who drafted him in the early rounds ahead of the likes of Dan Haren have been kicking themselves all year, and his perceived value has likely taken a hit as a result.
While I was a bit worried about Hamels coming into the season because of his injury history and the ballpark he pitches in, those issues haven’t been his undoing. Hamels looks to be on pace to toss around 200 innings again, and his K, BB, and HR rates are all almost identical to last season’s. Frankly, Hamels has been the victim of BABIP. Hardly shocking, Brad Lidge has also blown two wins for Hamels; 10-8 would be a lot prettier than 8-8.
Hamels still has what it takes to be an ace, and his performance this year has been a lot closer to the Hamels we have come to expect to see than his numbers indicate.
Hart looked to be reliable 20/20 outfielder with the potential to a emerge as true stud. This year he got off to a mediocre start and then had his season derailed when he was sidelined due to an emergency appendectomy.
Hart has a pretty reliable track record throughout his young career though. He should be considered a four- to five-category contributor and his outlook going forward should remain strong.
Hitting in an order with the likes of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder can only help, but Hart is a free agent after this season, so keep an eye out for where he ends up.
Although this season has been something of a disappointment for his owners, I’m not ready to give up on Alexei Ramirez. Ramirez kind of reminds me off Alfonso Soriano; especially in the sense that his fantasy potential is much higher than his actual potential. But, that’s what we’re supposed to care about here, right?
I thought Alexei was a little bit overhyped coming into this season and I view his “disappointment” as being a bit more of a recalibration of expectations than an actual failure. Taking this season at face value, the picture changes a bit. It’s hard to really label a season that looks to end in the vicinity of 20/20, 80/80 with a neutral batting average as a failure for a second-year middle infielder. Ramirez still has very strong fantasy potential, and a few circumstantial factors hampered this season as well.
First, Ramirez got off to a terrible start. Second, he seems to have something of a contentious relationship with Ozzie Guillen. Guillen has been displeased at times with Ramirez’s defense, effort, approach at the plate, or the way he puts the dishes away. It's always something. Now, granted, most of these things are legitimate criticisms of Ramirez, but Ramirez has been benched at times, shuffled around in the order, and in general been at the mercy of Guillen’s whims. Originally pegged as a No. 2 hitter, Ramirez has played more time in the seventh, eighth, and ninth slots. Not surprisingly, nearly two-thirds of his runs scored came when hitting second, even though that accounted for only about half of his PAs.
Gordon Beckham is a natural SS, so who knows what the offseason holds for Alexei and the White Sox. If Ramirez is able to ingratiate himself to Ozzie and move himself toward the top of the order, or if he finds himself in a different situation next season, Ramirez could conceivably provide production not too dissimilar to Brandon Phillips.
Rios has been somewhat enigmatic over his career. Many thought 2006 was the beginning of great things for him and he pretty much delivered in 2007. Then, in 2008 we saw the power take a step back, but he was able to make up for that, in terms of overall value, by swiping a career high 32 bags. This year has been considered a disappointment for Rios. The Blue Jays agreed, and now he’s in Chicago.
Like Ramirez, this season hasn’t been as bad for Rios as it looks at first glance. First of all, he’s been victimized by a terrible BABIP even though his GB/FB/LD percentages haven’t changed all that drastically from years past. His strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career averages too. So, the .250 batting average is surely misrepresentative of his performance at the plate. Since Rios does not walk very much, that has jettisoned his OBP to the point that it is difficult to score a lot of runs. Rios should still wind up hitting around 20 homers and stealing about 25 bases.
While it seems clear that his ceiling isn’t as high as we had once thought it may be, Rios is still 28 years old, and I don’t see his long-term prospects as being much different coming into next year as they were coming into this year. Expect at least a moderate rebound.
In 2007 and 2008, James Shields had two key assets that pegged him as a great value among fantasy pitchers, strong peripherals and low name recognition. This season, Shields may have taken a step backwards, but not as far as his superficial numbers may indicate. All things considered, Shields is basically still showing the same overall skill set that made him a valuable asset over the previous two seasons.
One of the strengths Shields has been able to boast is a very low walk rate. In ’07 and ’08, he walked 1.5 and 1.7 batters per nine, respectively. This season that rate has risen to just above 2, which is still a very strong number. What has really bitten Shields has been a higher BABIP than the past two years. He’s already given up more hits this season than he had in either of the previous ones, despite having more thrown more than 20 fewer innings. Part of this is a result of Tampa’s defense not being as strong as it was last year, but part of it is also due to luck. His home run rate is in line with what it has been throughout his career as well.
The one element of his game that is mildly concerning is his strikeout rate, which has fallen again and now sits at just about league average. One other point of note is that Tampa Bay has Shields locked up for several years, which restricts his prospects of getting out the AL East.
However, I’m confident that Shields has what it takes to rebound in his upcoming age 29 season. Ratcheting the strikeouts back up would be great, but even if he floats around seven per nine, Shields should be in line for a favorable regression.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:03am
Jonathan Sanchez is the pitching equivalent of the three-true-outcomes hitter: He matches eyepopping strikeout rates with equally huge walk rates. While Sanchez is a wild, fireballing young lefty, there is more than meets the eye when delving into his rate statistics.
Sanchez began his career in 2004 as a 27th-round draft pick by the San Francisco Giants. Though he arrived with little fanfare, Sanchez quickly rose through the ranks, registering as San Francisco's sixth-best prospect in 2006, before peaking as the system's second-best and MLB's 59th overall in 2007. Sanchez backed up these lofty prospect rankings with stellar performances in A-ball in 2005 and a three-level season in 2006 culminating with a stint with the big club. His 2005 season really put him on the map, as he posted 166 punchouts against 39 walks in 125.2 innings. His overall minor league career line boasted an incredible 333 strikeouts in 252.2 innings (11.9 K/9) while walking just 98 (3.5 BB/9) over parts of three seasons.
Sanchez brings a quality three-pitch mix to the mound featuring a 91-92 mph fastball, 81-82 mph slider, and 83-84 mph change-up. Through his tenure in the majors, this repertoire has been one of the hardest in the MLB to hit, as the hurler has amassed a career 75.3 percent contact rate over 388.1 innings through parts of four seasons.
The major leagues haven't been all fun and games for Sanchez, however.
While Sanchez has been one of the hardest pitchers to hit since his premier in 2006, he has also had some painful struggles with his command. From the get-go in 2006, he gave batters little reason to swing the bat, walking 5.18 batters per nine (23 BB in 40 IP). This rate has never dipped below 4.00 in his career, as his best showing was in 2008, when he walked "just" 4.27 batters per nine innings. This trouble with walks has been the theme in the pitcher's young career, as is the story with many lefties with exceptional stuff. Word gets out quickly that they cannot command the zone and they have problems getting batters to chase pitches off the plate and struggle with walks. Randy Johnson is probably the best example of this. The Big Unit struggled with his command until 1993, his age 30 season, after posting walk rates of 6.8 BB/9 and 6.2 BB/9 in 1991 and 1992, respectively, a period which spanned 411.2 innings. While high walk totals are nothing to scoff at, they are not unheard of.
But if there was ever a redeeming quality in fantasy and major league baseball, it is the ability to miss bats—and Sanchez has this in spades. His strikeout rate has been off the charts since 2007, as the pitcher is the proud owner of a career strikeout rate of 9.41 K/9, including 10.02 K/9 this season and 10.73 K/9 in 2007. Ever wonder how a pitcher can throw a no-hitter? Don't let the opposition put the ball in play. If you can get 10 outs per 27 via the K, the chances are much higher for a no-no. Don't be surprised if Sanchez throws another one in the next couple seasons.
But there is more than just high strikeout and walk totals that make Sanchez such as interesting pitcher. In reality, he is not nearly as wild or doesn't have as little control as his numbers make it seem. His command ratings are not far from league average, so it is a bit surprising that his walk rates have been so high over the last two seasons.
Sanchez's primary indicators of control, being his Zone percentage (48.5 percent, a little lower than is desirable) and F-Strike percentage (59.2 percent) are right around league average. Sanchez seems to have fallen victim to a stigma of being "wild," as hitters are less inclined to swing at his offerings, evidenced by his low Swing percentage (43.5 percent). This, coupled with a very low contact rate (73.0 percent), means that at-bats against Sanchez tend to drag on longer, resulting in more walks, as well as strikeouts. It would be beneficial to Sanchez if batters would swing more, meaning fewer walks. Still, he does benefit from the additional called strikes.
Overall, Sanchez looks to be a good candidate for improvement over the rest of this season and for years to come. His expected strikeouts are still phenomenal, around 9.6 K/9, while his walk numbers should improve a lot from this season, as his rates are more indicative of a pitcher who allows 4.0 BB/9, not 5.
As it stands, Sanchez is performing right around where he should, with a 4.03 ERA, close to his 3.83 FIP. His WHIP of 1.35 is reasonable as well, though it could climb closer to 1.40, but not above that. If Sanchez can make the aforementioned improvements in his walk rates, he could see his ERA drop to the low 3.8s and his WHIP improve to around 1.30. Either way, Jonathan Sanchez is an above-average fantasy pitcher for 12-team mixed leagues, worth about 1-2 points above average. Not too shabby for a hurler who has been left to rot on waiver wires across the fantasy landscape. Grab him if you can; you won't be disappointed.
Posted by Mike Silver at 12:13am
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