THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Ryan Doumit | Pittsburgh | C
2009 Final Stats: .250/.299/.414

Stick your thumb up like you're hitchhiking. See that triangular pocket formed by your tendons? It's called the "anatomical snuffbox," and underneath it is the scaphoid bone, one of several bones that make up your wrist joint. It's also the same bone that Doumit broke on April 19, knocking him out for nearly two months and possibly leading to his awful season.

For what it's worth, this bone is nearly always broken by a fall, the kind where you try to stop yourself with the heels of your hands. Doumit claimed he hurt it while swinging a bat, but it's more likely he hurt it at some other point. There wasn't a play at the plate on the day he hurt it, and his swing was no more violent than usual, at least to my eye. Is this one of those hidden off-the-field injuries? Do with it what you will.

Whatever its cause, Doumit's wrist certainly seemed to bother him for the rest of the season. He wasn't really tearing off the cover in the dozen games he'd played before losing seven-plus weeks, but he limped through most of the season after he returned. His best month was September, when he hit .329/.406/.459, displaying unusual patience, with a .58 BB/K ratio—if that doesn't sound so hot, compare it to the .30 he put up the rest of the year.

Overall, however, 2009 simply stunk for Doumit. His .268 BABIP and .164 ISO were the lowest since 2006 and 2005, respectively. That low BABIP could either signal bad luck or hitting with less authority; that his 17.9 LD% was his lowest since 2006 would point towards the latter. Since it's rare for a guy's power to suddenly vaporize at his age 28, this is most likely wrist-related. To wrap up the anatomy lesson from above, some people can take up to six months to heal completely from a scaphoid fracture, and loss of hand and wrist strength (sometimes permanent) isn't unusual.

On the bright side, his .73 GB/FB ratio, 11.6% HR/F and 3.3 HR% all held steady, so he hasn't changed his swing and he's managing to get the ball out of the yard when he does get a hold of it. He's probably going to recover some of that power as his wrist heals completely.

Pittsburgh fans can also expect to see him behind the plate for the next several seasons—he's signed through 2011, and they've said they have no plans to move him from catcher. Given Doumit's injury history, they may change their tune eventually, and he did get a few starts in RF partway through the season when they were looking for more offense, but that's not going to happen soon. That's more good news for fantasy owners, since his value is clearly tied to his position. The Pirates actually look like they might be a bit better next season, so he might even have a chance to knock in some runs.

Doumit's still a free-swinger, but that power and a CT% in the low- to mid-80s is what makes him such a great option at C. Next season, he's going to be undervalued because of his downer 2009, and you should exercise caution, too. But he's still a good early mid-round gamble with a good upside. I'd expect a year somewhere between 2008 and 2009, but don't be surprised to see him hit the DL again.

Jay Bruce | Cincinnati | OF
2009 Final Stats: .223/.303/.470

Bruce is another power hitter who ran into serious wrist problems. The difference with him was, he didn’t seem to be performing all that well before the injury. Bruce was hitting .207/.283/.411 when he fractured his wrist on July 11—sorry, guys, couldn’t get the scoop on which bone he broke, so there’s no anatomy lesson this time around. When he returned in mid-September, he only got to play in 18 games, but he mashed, hitting .326/.426/.652.

Of course, that screams small sample size, and it probably didn’t hurt that he hit down in the order after he returned, in more low-pressure spots like sixth and seventh. But overall in 2009, he had an OPS almost identical to 2008; he actually improved from .767 to .773, all of that improvement coming from SLG, which went from .453 to .470.

And behind those numbers, he showed even more improvement. He sharpened his batting eye and contact skills, going from .30 BB/K and 73 CT% to .51 and 78% in 2009. He boosted his extra-base hits, too, going from 8.6 XBH% in 2008 to 10.1% in 2009, with 51% of his hits going for extra bases in 2009, as opposed to 37% in 2008.

On the downside, he saw reductions in LD% from 21.1% to 13%, and his HR/FB% also dropped slightly, from 18.5% to 15.4%. That suggests he wasn’t making consistently solid contact, a notion further supported by a BABIP that fell from .296 to .221. Coming back strong from his injury says to me that these are likely to turn around.

Plenty of players have sophomore slumps, and Bruce didn’t really get the chance to figure his out in 2009, even if he showed signs that he was beginning to do so. Though he dropped in OPS each of the two months before getting hurt, he demonstrated a clear shift in his approach to the plate in June. After two months of a free-swinging .37 BB/K, he changed dramatically to a .93 BB/K in June, when he also started making better contact. It’s very likely that he would have pulled out of his apparent nosedive, one that—it should be noted—really was only two months long, hardly something to be concerned about in such a young player.

All of this bodes well for 2010, assuming his wrist injury is behind him. Hideki Matsui (who is much older) suffered a very similar injury in 2006, and saw his SLG dip six points the following year. Not a significant drop, and one that can’t even be reliably attributed to the wrist injury, as Matsui was 33 at the time and some dropoff, or at least leveling off, isn't unusual at his age.

Doctors were pleased with the cleanliness of Bruce’s break, and (again) he came back stronger after returning. Given an offseason ahead of him to continue rehab and strengthening work, and the fact that he’s only 22, I think we can assume Bruce will be fine next season. Try to remember when you were 22 and healed quickly from injuries like this—he’s gonna be fine.

He’ll return to a Reds squad with several young hitters, and picturing him in the midst of guys like Votto, Phillips and Stubbs should make fantasy owners and Reds fans very happy. If you find him undervalued in your draft because of his perceived dropoff in 2009 or concerns about his wrist, go the extra dollar or two. He’s young, he’s talented, and he’s going to keep getting better.

Chris Carpenter | St. Louis | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.7 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.24 ERA

Among pitchers, arm injuries are obviously far more serious, and Carpenter missed most of the past two seasons after two separate procedures: Tommy John Surgery and a repair job on a compressed nerve in his shoulder. In fact, The Original CC hasn't had a DL-free season since 2005. That includes this year, of course, when he missed more than a month with a torn oblique muscle.

But when he's healthy, he's amazing. Of the past three healthy seasons ('05, '06, and '09), his worst WHIP was 1.069 in 2006, a number that led the NL. That's because he gave up about 7 H/9 and under 2 BB/9 in all three years; that plus his .63 HR/9 tells you why he registered a sub-3.00 ERA in that time.

This year, he was as impressive as ever. In 26 starts after coming back from that oblique tear, he reeled off 22 Quality Starts. Two of those were moderate shellings: a six-run, 5.0 IP outing against the Giants on June 30 and a seven-run, 6.0 IP outing against Atlanta on September 13. Chuck those out, and he's got a 1.72 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. He's got a solid defense behind him, as evidenced by the .731 DER, but his FIP-ERA was a measly 0.57. This is a guy that deals.

It's hard to read this season as an anomaly, either. His 79.5% strand rate was a touch high, his .274 BABIP and 5.2% HR/F both low, but those are the only stats that look especially skewed. He walked 13 in 41.0 September innings, likely due to fatigue, something that carried over to the middling postseason performance against the Dodgers where he walked four, struck out three and gave up nine hits (including an uncharacteristic dinger).

Overall, his strikeouts have dipped as his GB% has risen, so his fantasy points might be a bit depressed, but he's still one of the top pitchers in the game when he's healthy. That's the crux of the problem with Carpenter: When might he hit the DL again? He'll be 35 in 2010, but with the recovery from TJS behind him, you've got to like his health chances, at least in the short term.

With my crystal ball currently in the shop, I can't tell you if he'll tear another oblique, but pitching coach Dave Duncan is now expected to wear his wizard cap for at least another season, so his mechanics should remain solid. Some of the slightly depressed numbers outlined above say to me he's due for a but of a correction, and I'd expect to see those strikeouts continue to dwindle down the road. He's signed with St. Louis through at least 2011, giving him the comfort of familiarity (and hopefully Dave Duncan) for some time to come.

Carpenter's health concerns push him out of the top tier of pitchers, and keeper owners have to calculate the chances of a serious injury shutting him down again, but he's not far out of that top tier. As a rule, I don't blow a lot of bucks on my pitchers and try to minimize risk, so I'd only take him for my team if he seemed especially undervalued. But I'd put his chances at another excellent season far higher than his chance at serious injury or sudden collapse. And another run at the Cy Young is well within the realm of possibility.

Next week, I'll be looking at Eugenio Velez, Ian Desmond, and Dan Runzler; then, I'll cover Jeff Francoeur, Kyle Blanks, and Scott Elbert; followed by Jake Fox, Matt Latos and Joe Blanton.

Keep offering your suggestions for other players you'd like to hear about, particularly those with offseason questions—injuries, contracts, playing time—looming.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, October 29, 2009

Top 10 prospects for 2010: New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox

2010 top 10 prospects: New York Yankees

1. Jesus Montero: His bat has all the makings of a perennial All-Star. The only question is what position Montero eventually ends up playing.
2. Manuel Banuelos: As an 18-year-old, Banuelos has an attacking approach beyond his years. With some refinement and added velocity he could be an ace in the making.
3. Jairo Heredia: After battling an injury for most of 2009, Heredia posted some respectable numbers in a short period of time. His 2010 Double-A excursion will be the first true test for his mid-90s fastball.
4. Austin Romine: The Yankees are developing Romine with a one-level-at-a-time approach, to fine success. A solid all-around catcher could be in the works.
5. Kelvin De Leon: De Leon's five-star potential is very real, and the Gulf Coast League got a taste of it in 2009. Patience is the key with this terrific young man.
6. Slade Heathcott: This first-round pick has a full toolbox to work with, and he has the ability to be a .300 hitter with a good power/speed combination. But Heathcott has a long way to go.
7. Arodys Vizcaino: His fastball touches the mid-90s, and his change-up/curveball secondary combination has Yankee fans excited. Keep an eye on Vizcaino.
8. D.J. Mitchell: While there isn't much upside left in his right arm, Mitchell sports strong command, a good groundball ratio and an eye-popping low home run rate.
9. Austin Jackson: His power and plate discipline may be his downfall, but there is still time for development. Jackson's speed could be a weapon at the next level.
10. Zach McAllister: His best asset is the consistency that he brings to the mound. McAllister's low-90s fastball and heavy sinking action have all the makings of a back-of-the-rotation starter at the very least.

2010 top 10 prospects: Boston Red Sox

1. Lars Anderson: His 2009 season was nothing short of forgettable, but Anderson's power potential is among minor league baseball's best. I haven't given up on him.
2. Casey Kelly: Boston won't be experimenting with Kelly at shortstop for too much longer, as the mound is where his future lies. For a player of his age, his overall arsenal and polish are virtually unrivaled.
3. Ryan Westmoreland: Even though it may be premature, I'm not afraid to say it: The start to Westmoreland's career has me seeing stars. His true breakout could come in 2010 with Greenville.
4. Michael Bowden: He has middle-of-the-rotation stuff and little left to prove in the minor leagues. But Bowden's brief major league outings have been unsuccessful so far.
5. Stolmy Pimentel: Added velocity is coming, and his overall repertoire is impressive. I can't wait to see Pimentel against advanced competition.
6. Ryan Kalish: As a generally unheralded prospect, Kalish has taken his development one step at a time, and his true breakout season could be coming soon.
7. Junichi Tazawa: He doesn't bring much velocity, but Tazawa has a plethora of secondary offerings at his disposal and a good amount of command over all of them.
8. Josh Reddick: He has the makings of an average major league corner outfielder, but Reddick's questionable power will hinder his stock in the long run.
9. Reymond Fuentes: The best tool is his plus speed, and while Fuentes has good bat speed and line drive power, ultimately, I don't think he has All-Star potential.
10. Michael Almanzar: His tools have not suddenly disappeared, but Almanzar has a long way to go and needs to show a better work ethic if he's going to reach his outrageous potential.

Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:10am

Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Player Profile: Clayton Kershaw

MLB: NLDS-St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

After two years in the bigs, Clayton Kershaw looks like one of the best young pitchers in the game. With a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings in 2009, it seems as if Kershaw can do almost anything. It may be so, as no level to date has posed a challenge for the lefty.

Kershaw was drafted seventh overall out of Highland Park High School in 2006 by the Los Angeles Dodgers. After signing for a $2.3 million bonus, he debuted in the Gulf Coast League, where he wreaked havoc on all competition. In 37 short innings, Kershaw used "Public Enemy Number 1" and his blazing fastball to post 54 strikeouts against just five walks. This utter domination was good enough to place him as the Dodgers' second-best prospect and 24th-best in MLB. Not bad for an 18-year-old.

The 2007 season saw Kershaw open at A-ball in the Midwest League. Kershaw again wowed, registering a whopping 134 strikeouts in 97.1 innings—good for a staggering 12.39 K/9 rate. However, he also walked 50 batters, dragging down his K:BB ratio to 2.68. Still, this showing was more than good enough for the Dodgers to promote Kershaw to Double-A, where he finished the season with 24.2 innings of whiff-inducing, walk-centric ball. His 29 Ks were again very impressive. His 17 walks were reason for concern. Still, Kershaw's raw stuff, his lean 6-3 frame, and his left-handedness made the Dodgers the envy of MLB, as Kershaw ranked as the best Dodgers prospect and seventh-best overall. The sky was the limit for the flamethrowing youngster as he set out for a repeat of Double-A in 2008.

Kershaw's second stint in Double-A was another showstopper, as he once again showcased his excellent stuff in dominating fashion. Though his strikeouts were down somewhat at 8.66 K/9, his walks also dropped precipitously to 2.79 BB/9, which was a very exciting development. After these 61.1 innings, the Dodgers saw it fit to promote the 20-year-old to the majors. Once there, he proved why he was among the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, as he registered a 4.26 ERA and 4.08 FIP in 107.2 innings, to go along with 100 Ks—but 52 walks. For such a young pitcher, the results were tremendous, though, again, the walks bared watching.

Kershaw's 2009 was another excellent campaign and a tremendous one for such a young pitcher. Through 31 appearances spanning 171 innings, Kershaw dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.79 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 9.74 K/9. The walks reared their ugly face again and were problematic. However, he proved that he was among the best young pitchers in the league and that there was much to be excited about. Still, there are reasons to be skeptical of his 2009 performance.

Looking over his overall line, Kershaw has two primary indicators in his performance that point to a regression in 2010. The first is his low BABIP, at .274. While this is in some ways attributable to Los Angeles' league-leading defensive efficiency rating (.714), a rate this low cannot be sustained. While it could still be lower next season due to L.A.'s great D, it is nonetheless due to fall back closer to .300. The second indicator is his miniscule HR/FB%, which sits at 4.1 percent. This rate is certainly unsustainable and contributed in a big way to his impressive ERA and FIP. Don't discount the importance of these indicators. Together, they present a big challenge for Kershaw repeating his 2009 performance. Had the HR/FB rate been closer to league average and his BABIP been closer to that of his team's defensive results, Kershaw would have been expected to post an ERA in the mid-3s. While this is still very good, it is a far cry from 2.79.

Still, there is no denying that Kershaw has some of the best stuff in the game—for any pitcher, at any age. He throws hard, with a fastball averaging 93.9 mph, has a knee-buckling bender, and mixes in a change-up. To top it all off, he even developed a slider this season, which could make him one of the toughest starting pitchers against lefties in all of baseball—if he isn't already. His splits confirm this, as lefties hit a total of .173/.234/.252 against him in 2009, including just one home run in 139 at-bats and, wait for it ... 72 strikeouts (51.79 percent strikeout rate) against just 11 walks. Those are other-worldly numbers. So, even if he becomes washed up by the age of 40, he should still have a career as a LOOGY. But that's beside the point. His numbers against righties are very impressive as well, as they totaled a .208/.320/.291 line against Kershaw this past season.

Looking Kershaw over, there are three obstacles that stand in the way of him becoming possibly the best pitcher in baseball. First, he will have to "improve" against right-handers. It may sound like a silly thing to say about a group of batters who hit for a .611 OPS against him. However, if he is able to refine his change-up, he could combine a fastball-curve-change mix against righties that could be unhittable. While some have said that he has "flashed" a plus change-up in the past, it was by far his worst offering in 2009, registering at -1.78 wCH/C on the season. His low usage rate of the pitch (4.2 percent) suggests that he doesn't have much confidence in it either. As a result, he will need to improve the pitch to step to the next level against righties.

The second item on the to-do list involves him solving his command issues. Pitchers who walk more than four batters per nine innings never reach the pinnacle of their profession. With Kershaw's stuff, he will still be very good, a la Jorge de la Rosa. However, the free passes have a tendency to derail great pitchers and if Kershaw can't solve this problem, he'll never be more than very good. If he can shave one or one-half of a walk off his BB/9 rate in the next couple seasons, the results would be remarkable. This is a tall order, however, so keep your fingers crossed.

The third factor is that he will have to maintain his strikeout rate. This may not be much of an issue, as he has always had excellent strikeout rates in the past. However, his contact percentage of 76.7, while great, is not quite elite. His overall rates point to a pitcher who should have a K/9 in the low 8's rather than the mid 9's. Still, with the success he's had in the past, the higher-than-expected strikeout rate could be due to any number of reasons—luck, extra called third strikes, or having such a great curveball for on strike two. While I would like to provide an answer, I cannot claim to have watched Kershaw enough to address this last point. However, while we are on the topic of regressed strikeout rates, it is worth noting that Kershaw's expected walk rate is in the high-3's currently, which indicates that he already has the command necessary to shave down the walk rate.

In the end, Kershaw is an incredible pitcher who is one or two tweaks away from being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Still just 21 years old, he has to be one of the best keeper league pitching prospects in all of fantasy baseball. On 2009 performance, he was among the better pitchers in fantasy, despite winning just eight games. For next season, Kershaw will have to improve his walk totals and maintain his strikeouts in order to better last season. In particular, hope for an improvement in his overall contact rate and performance of his change-up, as well as pitching later into games. If he can do this, he'll be extraordinary. Nevertheless, expect his BABIP and HR/FB to level out, so the defensive efficiency of the Dodgers bears watching. In all, he should be able to again post high strikeout totals, a good ERA and WHIP, and again be one of the better pitchers in fantasy baseball. When it comes to Kershaw, expect great production, with the chance of an otherworldly breakout.

VOTE ON NEXT WEEK'S PLAYER PROFILE

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Posted by Mike Silver at 4:19am

Monday, October 26, 2009

Evaluating the A-Rod experiment

Alex Rodriguez is making just about as much news this postseason as he made this past preseason. Between the PED revelations and his injury, which carried a somewhat undefined timeline, when to draft A-Rod was a big question back in March.

I was a huge proponent of drafting A-Rod anytime around picks 20-25. I thought there were a fair amount of question marks creeping around the top 20, and figured that anywhere between 400 and 500 ABs from A-Rod, along with 75 to 150 from a replacement would very likely produce top 15 value. I made a firm commitment to myself that I would much rather order the A-Rod combination special than draft somebody like Carlos Quentin, counting on a repeat performance. I also figured A-Rod plus his replacement would, at worst, only be outproduced by three 3Bs: David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, and Evan Longoria. If Aramis Ramirez was even remotely on my radar screen while A-Rod was still available, I was going to pounce.

I was able to nab Rodriguez in two of four straight draft leagues. Let’s see how the experiment turned out. To establish a basis of comparison, Cabrera finished the season as the highest ranked 3B-eligible player, at 18th overall according to Yahoo. His numbers were:

R: 96
HR: 34
RBI: 103
SB: 6
AVG: .324 (198/611)

Let’s look at the composite of A-Rod and his replacement in four different leagues. I’ve looked back at team logs and tried my best to put together the main replacement players used for A-Rod and put together the stats. I’d venture that they are close, but probably not entirely accurate, as line-ups were shuffled here and there, and so forth.

League 1: (A-Rod drafted 17th overall)
Replacements: Melvin Mora and Josh Fields

R: 95
HR: 32
RBI: 111
SB: 16
AVG: .275 (171/621)

This was the highest A-Rod was picked in any of the leagues. This is a draft/keeper league, so that makes sense. Cabrera went fifth overall in this draft. The A-Rod owner did not spend high picks on either replacement. In fact, I believe he didn’t even draft Mora. He simply waited for the draft to end, placed A-Rod on the DL and used that extra spot to pick Mora off waivers.

Some may say that the hidden cost of drafting A-Rod is the opportunity cost, meaning that if you need to draft a replacement, you also lose the production you would otherwise get from the player you would have otherwise drafted in the round you drafted A-Rod’s handcuff. Theoretically, you could miss out on a sleeper who pays off. For two reasons, I don’t think this is a major concern.

First, more of those picks bust than boom, so the odds aren’t on your side to begin with. Surely, you want to maximize your opportunities, but when you’re trying to quantify sunk cost, you can only put down on the ledger that which you’re confident you can account for.

Second, when you draft a player who is on the DL, you get a free roster spot. So, the opportunity cost of the handcuff pick is mitigated by the fact that you have an extra roster spot and first pick of all non-drafted players to occupy that slot. That player can be a breakout too.

All things considered, it looked like A-Rod and his replacement seemed like they were a fine value here.

Cabrera was drafted fifth overall in this league.

League 2: (A-Rod drafted 24th overall, by me)
Replacements: Hank Blalock, Hanley Ramirez

R: 99
HR: 31
RBI: 110
SB: 18
AVG: .290 (164/565)

I’m sure the placement of Ramirez as my replacement raised eyebrows. I’ll get to that in a second.

First, what I loved about this draft was that it gave me the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone. I wanted A-Rod, and I thought Blalock was definitely worth a late flier and thought he might even play himself into having some trade value.

Here’s how it played out for me: I drafted Blalock as A-Rod’s replacement and played him until A-Rod came back. Once A-Rod returned, I began receiving trade offers for A-Rod from the team who had Han-Ram, but those offers didn’t include him. I wasn’t prepared to give up A-Rod for anybody but Ramirez or Pujols. (If I wanted your third-round pick, I would have picked him when I picked A-Rod, you dolt!).

Blalock had gotten going around the time A-Rod returned and he was actually accruing some trade value. I had also taken a chance on David Ortiz in that draft, so I took the opportunity to bench the struggling Papi and inserted Blalock at my utility spot. Once Papi started picking it up a bit, I offered Blalock and A-Rod for Hanley, and the other owner took it. (I only included Blalock’s production from the start of the season through May 7 in my composite figures above). This whole orchestration would look even better if I tried to estimate the composite production of Blalock and Ortiz at the utility spot, as I got the best part of Blalock’s season there and then traded him in time for Papi to have a very good second half. Blalock’s value plummeted not so long after I shipped him off.

I’m extremely proud of my choreography here; this was one of those instances in which everything goes right. My first- and fifth-round picks in this league were Jose Reyes and Brandon Webb, and yet I was able to win this league for the third time in the four years I’ve played it. (First place and third were separated by two total points at season’s end.) My execution of this strategy may very well have won me the championship.

Cabrera was drafted seventh overall in this league.

League 3: (A-Rod drafted 26th overall, by me)
Replacements: Adrian Beltre, Emilio Bonafacio

R: 99
HR: 30
RBI: 114
SB: 19
AVG .265 (162/612)

This was the worst composite production of the four. Still, it was somewhat mitigated by the fact that this is also the latest Rodriguez was selected in any of the drafts. The subpar batting average makes this composite line a little weak for the 26th overall pick.

This foray left a bit to be desired mainly because my replacements did not produce. I thought Beltre would produce well and that he’d potentially be worth holding on to when A-Rod returned or even play well enough to have some trade value. But, he stunk and he was hurt. I then jumped ship after somebody who had ridden the early Bonafiacio wave dumped him during a cold spell. I hoped for a Bonfacio resurgence, or maybe one of those six stolen base weeks. But, it was not to be.

Cabrera went sixth overall in this draft.

League 4: (A-Rod drafted 21st overall)
Replacement: Ian Stewart

R: 99
HR: 34
RBI: 112
SB: 16
AVG: .279 (140/502)

Stewart was a very nice surprise this year. Unfortunately, in April his playing time was inconsistent and his production was not stellar. I presume this owner had another replacement who put in a few dozen ABs in A-Rod’s absence as well. But, I was not able to determine who that was from his team records.

Cabrera went fifth overall in this draft.

Taking a step back, I think the A-Rod experiment was a rousing success. He played well enough upon return to accrue a good chunk of value on his own, and when paired with a suitable replacement, the returns were similar to the top-ranked 3B, who was often drafted more than 15 picks ahead of Rodriguez. Further, between injuries and poor production there were a high number of underperformers and full-on busts at 3B.

Wright, Garrett Atkins, Chris Davis, and Aramis Ramirez were all premium picks. All besides Wright were total busts, while Wright was merely a substantial disappointment. So, unless you scooped up Ryan Zimmerman or were wise enough to grab Mark Reynolds, it was pretty difficult to have gotten better value out of your 3B spot than A-Rod plus a replacement.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:16am

Clone Wars: Jon Lester and CC Sabathia

The next few years should be quite exciting in the Yankees and Red Sox matchup. They control two of the best pitchers in the A.L. and both still in prime ages of their careers. Jon Lester is only 25 and is fully healthy after a few years dealing with his cancer and the recovery. CC Sabathia has several more years under his belt and many more pitches, but will enter 2010 at only 29 and looks to have many more years at the top of his game.

                   W    K      ERA    BB   IP       K/9    BB/9    K/BB   GB%       FIP
Jon Lester         15   225    3.41   64   203.1    9.96   2.83    3.52   47.7%     3.15
CC Sabthia         19   197    3.37   67   230.0    7.71   2.62    2.94   42.9%     3.39

Jon Lester

MLB: OCT 08 ALDS - Game 1 - Red Sox at Angels
Oct. 8 2009: Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Jon Lester throws against the Los Angeles Angels during ALDS Game Two at Angels Stadium in Anaheim, CA. (Icon/SMI)

Not many can see how much better Lester was this year since the ERA is worse and the wins and losses are about the same as a season ago. If you look at the large jump in strikeout rate you can see how much better he really was. His K/9 went from 6.50 last year to 9.96 this season. That was second overall in the American League.

This year also saw a confirmation of Lester's ground ball rate that was at 47.5 percent last year which was the highest of his career. This year he had a rate of 47.7 percent, confirming he could do this for the long term. When you combine his ability to control the strike zone and force hitters into ground balls he is headed for continued success as the new "ace" of the Red Sox.

His success has stemmed from an increase in pitch velocity this year. His fastball averaged 93.6 mph this year, which is up from his 92.1 last year and much higher than 90.2 mph in his rookie season. His cutter has also gotten faster, going 85 mph in 2007 to 89.0 this season. His pitch value on the cutter has reached 1.96 per 100 pitches. This was by far his best pitch. You can see some pitch f/x analysis by Lee Perrault here for his improvements this season.

CC Sabathia

I took a look at Sabathia earlier this season and attempted to calm some nerves about his slow start. He has a tendency to start slow and also struggled with his control when he first went to Milwaukee, as well.

Since his early season struggles he has returned to the Sabathia we are familiar with. He hasn't been as good as he was last fall, but putting him back in the American League was sure to return his K/9 to career levels. His numbers are all within a very small amount of career levels for K/9, BB/9 and GB percentage. The Yankees are getting exactly what they paid for.

Something to keep in mind with Sabathia is his HR/FB percentage in 2009. It was only 7.4 percent and his HR/9 was only 0.51 at home while 0.86 on the road. This should be a bit of a concern, although he has maintained lower HR/FB rates in his career. His lower rates previously can be attributed to pitching in Cleveland's Progressive Field which has ranked favorably to pitchers in regards to homers against.

Conclusion

We are talking about the best in the league here and getting either one should benefit your fantasy team next year. Lester has age on his side as well as many less pitches thrown in his career. Sabathia does not strike out nearly as many as Lester did this year and relies much more on controlling his walks. This makes Lester more valuable for his strikeout totals.

They were close in 2008 for win totals, but Sabathia ran away with wins this year. They both pitch in front of very good offenses and neither should be expected to run away with wins. WHIP is a solid category for Sabathia where he has been under 1.20 for four years now, but Lester has never registered a WHIP under 1.20.

Again you could take either one and have your team's No. 1 pitcher, but in a close contest I would choose Lester for his strikeout totals. Even if he regresses slightly in his K/9 he stands ahead of Sabathia in this. Even if Sabathia can throw the extra 30 innings or so again next year he likely won't catch Lester in strikeouts.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 2:37am

Friday, October 23, 2009

Waiver Wire Offseason: AL

While we won't be doing the deep dig, we're always happy to go into more detail in comments, per request. If something takes more research, we'll either field it the next week, or see if another member of the team wants to dig into the subject matter even deeper. Some of the other THT Fantasy writers have been doing some deep digs into AL players, such as Mike Silver's piece on Billy Butler, and Troy Patterson's compare-and-contrast piece on Chone and Denard. We recommend reading these if you haven't.

Joe Mauer | Minnesota | C
2009 Final Stats: Walked/On/Water

OK, he didn't really walk on water, or turn water into wine, but he did play in the Land of 10,000 Lakes, and hit .365/.444/.587, with his defense making this season the best ever for a catcher, by most estimations. Given that he racked up 606 PA (second among all MLB catchers to Kurt Suzuki, though he got “off days” at DH 28 times), it's easy to forget that his spring was marred by very serious-sounding back issues, and he didn't get started until May 1. For perspective on how great his season was, he entered that rarified air where his “mixed league” roto values were higher than his “AL only” values. This comes into play because the standard deviations are significantly lower for mixed leagues, and a player is so far above the replacement levels that the extra variance makes up for it. Caution warns that his back issues, and the huge amount of playing time and his height will catch up to him someday soon (no pun intended). And paying for the $33 to $37 that he earned in 2009 won't be prudent, but if bidding starts to slow down in the early 20s, he's as likely to hold his value as almost any hitter. And if OBP is a category, look out!

Zach Greinke | Kansas City | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.5 K/9, 4.8 K/BB, 2.16 ERA

There are really only two questions with Greinke: 1) How close was 2009 to his true talent level, and 2) Will the Royals start scoring runs? The answer to (1) is “very close.” His HR/FB% was a bit low (just 5.4%), indicating that he was probably lucky on his fly balls in play. But his BABIP was also higher than typical at .313 (we'd like to blame this on the Royals middle infielders, so … we will!). His xFIP was 3.36, which is much higher than his ERA, but ERA diverges from FIP at the extremes, so that's not all fluke. He's throwing 94, and he still has his pinpoint control. There are few starting pitchers more sure to post great ratios in the game. The answer to (2) is “we doubt it, but he's so good that even a great offense would likely only net him another 3-4 wins.”

Matt LaPorta | Cleveland | 1B/OF
2009 Final Stats: .254/.308/.442

In these days when good college players seem to be jetting to the majors and making an impact quickly, it's easy to lump a guy like LaPorta in with the guys who have disappointed recently, such as Jeff Clement or—to a lesser extent—Alex Gordon. LaPorta got to start 12 games in May and didn't make much of that semi-opportunity, hitting a paltry .190/.286/.286. The Indians were trying to save a season that was going quickly down the tubes, and sent him “down” to Triple-A. And, while Triple-A is below the majors, LaPorta hadn't played there before 2009, hitting .279/.386/.539 in Double-A in 2008. Well, he made the most of the demotion, abusing IL pitchers with his .299/.388/.530 batting stats, and cutting his strikeouts from his past seasons. Called back up on Aug. 20, he hit .273/.315/.489 the rest of the way (149 PA). From a winning baseball perspective, we'd like to see more OBP, but that doesn't matter in most fantasy formats, and the power is undeniable. Also, he's never walked a ton but has always augmented his OBP with many HBP, which get overlooked in some points-based systems. While he's young and has options, there's almost no reason to expect him to do poorly enough to lose his job. Expect more of what he brought to the table upon his recall in 2009, probably with an uptick in OBP.

Ervin Santana | Los Angeles | SP
2009 Final Stats: 6.9 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 5.03 ERA

Normally, when a pitcher's xFIPs read—year-by-year—4.98, 5.11, 4.93, 3.64, 4.77, there are not a lot of reasons to presume that he's better than a 4.50-plus pitcher. But, Santana may be the exception. He really came into his own in 2008, averaging 94.4 mph on his fastball for almost 9.0 K/9, and walking fewer than two batters per nine IP. But a scary elbow injury with a visit to Lewis Yocum, followed by triceps problems, led to a very slow start to 2009 for the fireballer and took 2 MPH off his fastball. His control predictably declined to 3.0 BB/9, as well. But after reaching a “low point” (and a high 7.20 ERA) on Aug. 6, the Santana of 2008 started showing up again, as he held hitters to just .259/.316/.414, with a 49:18 K:BB ratio in 69.2 IP. And he's shown adaptability in pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs, and doing great. Expect a full offseason of rest and workouts to have his arm back in peak form for 2010, and performance approaching 2008's greatness should be considered a possibility.

Jason Bay | Boston | OF
2009 Final Stats: .267/.384/.537

Sure, Jason Bay produced $25-$29 worth of roto value in 2009. But what will he do in 2010? And for which team? As a short answer, we're going to suggest being very careful with Bay. His BABIP wasn't particularly low, considering aging and his past BABIP. While he didn't feast in Boston, the park should have helped him significantly (even if it didn't in a one-year sample), and he had an amazing plus-16 clutch rating (hitting .357 with RISP, 100 points above his bases-empty AVG), leading to his second-in-AL RBI total (and much of his roto value). With teammates who don't get on base as much, and a less-friendly ballpark, his chances of repeating that level of production are small. That said, he has a good chance to hit 30-plus HR, steal 10 bases, and approach 100 RBI, so don't forget about him completely.

Felix Hernandez | Seattle Mariners | SP
2009 Final Stats: 8.2 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 2.49 ERA

Here's a piece of auction advice: Whatever “player values” list you are using, add a few dollars to Felix Hernandez's value, and don't be afraid to bid that amount. The reason pitchers get dinged in values (most valuation systems used either 70/30 or 67/33 for hitter dollars and pitcher dollars) is that pitchers are unpredictable, and you are avoiding paying for the “downside” risk. Well, if you want to use only 30% of your budget on pitchers, go with more cheapies, but get Felix. This is a case of a guy who has been progressively learning more and more the “how to pitch” part of the game. And he's in a great setting—the M's have a clear intention of putting one of the best defensive teams on the field possible. The ballpark is very forgiving to flies, and the A's can't hit. It's unclear how well either of the other two divisional foes will hit in 2010, but having one team that can't hit out of three is a big enough bonus. As with Greinke, he'll suffer from run support but should be great enough to still post very good win totals without it.

Enjoy, and keep the suggestions coming!

Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Seth Smith | Colorado | LF
2009 Final Stats: .293/.378/.510

What's an .888 OPS OF to do? I called him an "instant pickup" when Jim Tracy finally named him the starting LF in mid-August, and Smith responded by hitting .315/.379/.641 for the next month, with six HR, eight 2B and 22 RBI in 22 starts. Then Carlos Gonzalez got hot, too, and Dexter Fowler returned from a bruised knee, and suddenly there was no place for him to play. Despite this, Smith's PT declined only slightly down the stretch, as Tracy tried to juggle all the options he had, even giving time to Ryan Spilborghs in LF, to keep him sharp for the postseason.

Going into the 2009 offseason, Colorado's blessed with an embarrassment of OF riches. Gonzalez and Fowler are young, cheap and have high upsides, while Hawpe is due $7.5M next season with a $10M option for 2011. These three seem the most likely configuration, but Hawpe has been rumored in trades, and he seems the most likely to go, given his higher price tag.

Even if Hawpe departs, Smith might not see FT duty, since Colorado's thick with left-handed hitters—currently, only Tulowitzki and Ianetta/Torrealba are regular right-handed hitters—and Spilborghs is their only right-handed option in the outfield. It would seem absurd to platoon Smith, whose OPS vs. LHP was .868 in 2009 (.893 vs. RHP), but his career platoon splits are much wider: His OPS against RHP is .153 higher in the majors and .168 higher in the minors.

Having said that, I think a platoon of a guy this young is not terribly likely, though it remains a possibility. More likely would be a trade to make room for him, either in Colorado or (if he's the one who's traded) elsewhere. A move from Coors Field could be a disastrous career move for Smith, however, since he hits .319/.410/.588 at home and .267/.345/.425 on the road. Then again, they said the same thing about Matt Holliday, and it turned out that the move to the AL had much more of an effect on him than moving to a stadium named after a different beer.

Wherever he might end up hitting, Smith owns solid skills, with an 83% contact rate in the minors and an 80% rate in the majors. His rising FB% (34.1% in 2008, 41.6% in 2009) combined with a steady 12% HR/F means his power should hold steady or even grow in 2010. Colorado has quite a few choices to make before next season, but the packed outfield may contain the majority of them. Smith and Spilborghs are both too good to warm a bench, but if Colorado manages to hold onto all their current outfielders, that may be where both end up.

Eric O. Young, Jr. | Colorado | 2B/OF
2009 Final Stats: .246/.295/.316

The Junior version of Colorado's Original Second Baseman Eric Young arrived at the end of 2009, even though there really wasn't any room for him on the team. He played CF while Fowler was hurt and CarGo was cold, then got a few starts at 2B when Clint Barmes took a seat during his second-half skid. And Eric O. made the postseason roster for his blazing speed, the same ticket that's gotten him so much attention in the minors.

He's in the same mold as his dad: fleet afoot, with a decent glove and an underwhelming bat. Unlike his dad, he's a switch-hitter, but Junior might take some lessons from his righty-hitting dad. E.Y. Jr. has a .682 OPS from the right side of the plate, and an .890 OPS from the other side. Overall, he hit .293/.385/.416 in the minors, which shows you he's also much more aggressive than his old man. Junior's .71 BB/K ratio in the minors isn't amazing, but, combined with his 82% contact rate, it should help keep his BA high.

What keeps fantasy owners drooling are those 303 swipes in six minor-league seasons, including a whopping 78 at Single-A Asheville. He's been caught 90 times, but that's been improving, showing that he's learning his craft. Colorado would love to see him on top of its 2010 batting order—if there's room. As we've seen above, he's not going to be playing in the outfield, but that's not his natural position anyway: He played all of 16 games there in the minors.

Barmes and Ian Stewart manned the Colorado keystone most of 2009, but Stewart is a much better fit at 3B (which depends on the fate of Garrett Atkins, another likely trade candidate). And Barmes, who is eligible for arbitration, hardly impressed with his .245/.294/.440 season, which included a .205/.259/.394 second half that only underlined how inconsistent he is.

Barring a really strange and unexpected offseason move, Eric Young will get every chance to win the starting 2B job in spring training, and the Rockies will be much happier if he wins it. His situation doesn't bear the close scrutiny accorded to the Colorado OF, but fantasy owners should still keep an eye on Rockies spring training to see how he handles his first extended look at big-league pitching. I'd expect him to be their starting 2B and to face the usual rookie hills and valleys—but, as the old saying goes, speed never slumps, so he should be good for 30-plus SB with that starting role.

Jorge de la Rosa | Colorado | SP
2009 Final Stats: 9.4 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 4.38 ERA

Remember when you'd never touch a Colorado pitcher? That was one of my few hard-and-fast fantasy rules, but in the Humidor Era, that's no longer true. Colorado had several valuable pitching commodities this year, and none of them was named Jeff Francis. And while Ubaldo Jimenez got more press for the velocity of his heater, he only had five more Ks than the lefty de la Rosa, who had the best strikeout rate of any Colorado starter.

Was this a fluke or a step forward? De la Rosa's 2009 numbers were his career best in virtually every significant category, which suggests he's finally come into his own. Where he hurts himself is with his walk rate, one of the few categories where he didn't record a career high. His career walk rate is 4.6 BB/9, making this year's 4.0 rate seem good. But either is worlds better than the 6-8 range he was hitting in his early career, and this year's is actually his second-best BB/9 rate, with 2007's 3.7 beating it out.

His HR rate is also marginal, as his 1.0 HR/9 rate is fairly consistent with his 0.9 from 2008 and his 1.1 rate overall. Putting extra batters on and giving up home runs isn't a formula for success, but de la Rosa managed to limit the damage with a 72% strand rate that was also second-best in his career (and right near league average). And he bails himself out with all those Ks, which can erase a lot of mistakes.

Still, you have to like how he's coming together, with overall improvement in both of his years with Colorado, hardly the best environment for a pitcher to find his groove. The strand rate rise may mean a correction is coming, but he seems to have found the plate with more consistency in Colorado, a far more important trend.

He missed the NLDS with a strained groin, an injury that's unlikely to linger in the offseason, and was actually fortunate to get it when he did. So close to the end of the year and just before Colorado's early exit from the playoffs, he wasn't tempted to push himself. That can lead to arm trouble if a pitcher alters his delivery because of lower-body issues (look what it did to Chien-Ming Wang's year).

With the return of Francis next year, Colorado has an extremely formidable rotation that includes Cook, Jimenez and de la Rosa. The Two Jasons, Marquis and Hammel, both had very nice years, and the Rockies should let Marquis walk, as Hammel would be a very cheap No. 5. De la Rosa most likely projects as an amazingly strong No. 4 in this scenario, or even a No. 3 if Cook continues to slide from a career year in 2008.

Don't be surprised to see Colorado try to lock up de la Rosa to a contract this offseason, with free agency looming in 2011. They could be better off waiting to see if he continues to improve in 2010, as long as he doesn't really break out and become too expensive. Fantasy owners can look at him as a very solid middle-round pick with a decent upside and a great source of Ks.

Next week: a look at Ryan Doumit and Jay Bruce, with Eugenio Velez and Ian Desmond the week after. Submit your own suggestions in the comments section, focusing on guys with uncertain offseason prospects.

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, October 22, 2009

Icons of the International League vs. the Prime Prospects of the Pacific Coast League

Icons of the International League

Matt LaPorta is one of the game's top power-hitting prospects, despite his somewhat disappointing 2009. LaPorta's prime is coming on fast, and his strong plate coverage and natural home run swing are too much to ignore. He still has the ability to turn into a superior middle-of-the-order hitter, and he is one of my very top fantasy breakout players for 2010.

Scott Sizemore finally lived up to his skill set in 2009, blossoming into one of minor league baseball's best second basemen. His combination of power and speed really stands out, leaving his ultimate upside at an elite level. In his prime Sizemore could produce 20 home runs, 20 steals and a .280 batting average; and his prime may not be that far off. Place Sizemore on your 2010 fantasy watch list.

Wade Davis has an above-average and varied repertoire that could catapult him to the top of Tampa Bay's rotation in the near future. But, if that is his upside, his control, which is already suspect in the minor leagues, needs a makeover. Davis doesn't dominate as he should, but the light switch could go on at any point, as his prime is approaching quickly, and that could solve his control issues and turn him into one of the game's top pitching prospects.

Michael Bowden doesn't stand out as a blue-chip heat thrower, but he has all the makings of a strong middle-of-the-rotation type that combines sometimes brilliant control with average stuff. Bowden's ability to control the strike zone projects well to the big leagues, but carving out a spot in Boston's 2010 rotation will be a difficult task.

Prime Prospects of the Pacific Coast League

Alcides Escobar brings gold-glove leather to the ballpark, and, frankly, it's too good to be wasted in the minor leagues, which Milwaukee realized halfway through August. What is most impressive about Escobar's swing consistency is that it has improved at every stop he has made up the minor league ladder. But if he wants to be an exceptional major leaguer, his plate discipline and patience will have to make similar strides.

Brett Wallace has the makings of an above-average major league third baseman, but, as most of you know, I'm not overly excited by his upside. He has a consistent swing, with solid contact ability combined with displayed plate patience. He can be a .300 hitter, but I'm just not sure that he has the home run power to take his game to the next level.

Neftali Feliz has an elite, electric fastball that he had issues controlling early in the year. But he soon found his groove, and his year culminated in a terrific major league stint in Texas' bullpen. No one will deny Feliz's stuff or ability to miss an opponent's bat, but it is certainly fair to question his secondary offerings and endurance. And when it comes right down to it, Feliz may be best coming out of the bullpen.

Bud Norris sneaked up on most people in 2009, when in fact he should have been on everyone's radar screen heading into the year, as evidenced by his year-to-year improvement since his 2007 full-season debut. He finished his season in Houston enjoying a successful major league debut, solidifying his 2010 rotation spot. With further development, Norris' curveball could be one of the game's best.