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Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Player Profile: Clayton Kershaw

MLB: NLDS-St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers

After two years in the bigs, Clayton Kershaw looks like one of the best young pitchers in the game. With a 2.79 ERA in 171 innings in 2009, it seems as if Kershaw can do almost anything. It may be so, as no level to date has posed a challenge for the lefty.

Kershaw was drafted seventh overall out of Highland Park High School in 2006 by the Los Angeles Dodgers. After signing for a $2.3 million bonus, he debuted in the Gulf Coast League, where he wreaked havoc on all competition. In 37 short innings, Kershaw used "Public Enemy Number 1" and his blazing fastball to post 54 strikeouts against just five walks. This utter domination was good enough to place him as the Dodgers' second-best prospect and 24th-best in MLB. Not bad for an 18-year-old.

The 2007 season saw Kershaw open at A-ball in the Midwest League. Kershaw again wowed, registering a whopping 134 strikeouts in 97.1 innings—good for a staggering 12.39 K/9 rate. However, he also walked 50 batters, dragging down his K:BB ratio to 2.68. Still, this showing was more than good enough for the Dodgers to promote Kershaw to Double-A, where he finished the season with 24.2 innings of whiff-inducing, walk-centric ball. His 29 Ks were again very impressive. His 17 walks were reason for concern. Still, Kershaw's raw stuff, his lean 6-3 frame, and his left-handedness made the Dodgers the envy of MLB, as Kershaw ranked as the best Dodgers prospect and seventh-best overall. The sky was the limit for the flamethrowing youngster as he set out for a repeat of Double-A in 2008.

Kershaw's second stint in Double-A was another showstopper, as he once again showcased his excellent stuff in dominating fashion. Though his strikeouts were down somewhat at 8.66 K/9, his walks also dropped precipitously to 2.79 BB/9, which was a very exciting development. After these 61.1 innings, the Dodgers saw it fit to promote the 20-year-old to the majors. Once there, he proved why he was among the best pitching prospects in all of baseball, as he registered a 4.26 ERA and 4.08 FIP in 107.2 innings, to go along with 100 Ks—but 52 walks. For such a young pitcher, the results were tremendous, though, again, the walks bared watching.

Kershaw's 2009 was another excellent campaign and a tremendous one for such a young pitcher. Through 31 appearances spanning 171 innings, Kershaw dominated major league hitters to the tune of a 2.79 ERA, 3.08 FIP, and 9.74 K/9. The walks reared their ugly face again and were problematic. However, he proved that he was among the best young pitchers in the league and that there was much to be excited about. Still, there are reasons to be skeptical of his 2009 performance.

Looking over his overall line, Kershaw has two primary indicators in his performance that point to a regression in 2010. The first is his low BABIP, at .274. While this is in some ways attributable to Los Angeles' league-leading defensive efficiency rating (.714), a rate this low cannot be sustained. While it could still be lower next season due to L.A.'s great D, it is nonetheless due to fall back closer to .300. The second indicator is his miniscule HR/FB%, which sits at 4.1 percent. This rate is certainly unsustainable and contributed in a big way to his impressive ERA and FIP. Don't discount the importance of these indicators. Together, they present a big challenge for Kershaw repeating his 2009 performance. Had the HR/FB rate been closer to league average and his BABIP been closer to that of his team's defensive results, Kershaw would have been expected to post an ERA in the mid-3s. While this is still very good, it is a far cry from 2.79.

Still, there is no denying that Kershaw has some of the best stuff in the game—for any pitcher, at any age. He throws hard, with a fastball averaging 93.9 mph, has a knee-buckling bender, and mixes in a change-up. To top it all off, he even developed a slider this season, which could make him one of the toughest starting pitchers against lefties in all of baseball—if he isn't already. His splits confirm this, as lefties hit a total of .173/.234/.252 against him in 2009, including just one home run in 139 at-bats and, wait for it ... 72 strikeouts (51.79 percent strikeout rate) against just 11 walks. Those are other-worldly numbers. So, even if he becomes washed up by the age of 40, he should still have a career as a LOOGY. But that's beside the point. His numbers against righties are very impressive as well, as they totaled a .208/.320/.291 line against Kershaw this past season.

Looking Kershaw over, there are three obstacles that stand in the way of him becoming possibly the best pitcher in baseball. First, he will have to "improve" against right-handers. It may sound like a silly thing to say about a group of batters who hit for a .611 OPS against him. However, if he is able to refine his change-up, he could combine a fastball-curve-change mix against righties that could be unhittable. While some have said that he has "flashed" a plus change-up in the past, it was by far his worst offering in 2009, registering at -1.78 wCH/C on the season. His low usage rate of the pitch (4.2 percent) suggests that he doesn't have much confidence in it either. As a result, he will need to improve the pitch to step to the next level against righties.

The second item on the to-do list involves him solving his command issues. Pitchers who walk more than four batters per nine innings never reach the pinnacle of their profession. With Kershaw's stuff, he will still be very good, a la Jorge de la Rosa. However, the free passes have a tendency to derail great pitchers and if Kershaw can't solve this problem, he'll never be more than very good. If he can shave one or one-half of a walk off his BB/9 rate in the next couple seasons, the results would be remarkable. This is a tall order, however, so keep your fingers crossed.

The third factor is that he will have to maintain his strikeout rate. This may not be much of an issue, as he has always had excellent strikeout rates in the past. However, his contact percentage of 76.7, while great, is not quite elite. His overall rates point to a pitcher who should have a K/9 in the low 8's rather than the mid 9's. Still, with the success he's had in the past, the higher-than-expected strikeout rate could be due to any number of reasons—luck, extra called third strikes, or having such a great curveball for on strike two. While I would like to provide an answer, I cannot claim to have watched Kershaw enough to address this last point. However, while we are on the topic of regressed strikeout rates, it is worth noting that Kershaw's expected walk rate is in the high-3's currently, which indicates that he already has the command necessary to shave down the walk rate.

In the end, Kershaw is an incredible pitcher who is one or two tweaks away from being one of the best pitchers in baseball. Still just 21 years old, he has to be one of the best keeper league pitching prospects in all of fantasy baseball. On 2009 performance, he was among the better pitchers in fantasy, despite winning just eight games. For next season, Kershaw will have to improve his walk totals and maintain his strikeouts in order to better last season. In particular, hope for an improvement in his overall contact rate and performance of his change-up, as well as pitching later into games. If he can do this, he'll be extraordinary. Nevertheless, expect his BABIP and HR/FB to level out, so the defensive efficiency of the Dodgers bears watching. In all, he should be able to again post high strikeout totals, a good ERA and WHIP, and again be one of the better pitchers in fantasy baseball. When it comes to Kershaw, expect great production, with the chance of an otherworldly breakout.

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Posted by Mike Silver at 4:19am

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