THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:47pm (5) Comments

Wednesday, December 30, 2009

Player Profile: Nolan Reimold

Brought up midseason to buttress a beleaguered Orioles outfield, Nolan Reimold was one of the bigger surprises of the 2009 fantasy season. Drawn from relative obscurity, he put up good power numbers and a decent batting average—rounding out many teams in need of free outfield help off the waiver wire. But where did this Nolan Reimold come from? And, more importantly, what can we expect from him next season?

Drafted in the second round of the 2005 June draft by the Baltimore Orioles, the 21-year-old Reimold began his professional baseball career at Aberdeen of the New York-Penn League. He got off to quite the hot start, showing good power (nine home runs in 180 at-bats) with a good sense of the strike zone, walking 29 times to go along with 44 strikeouts on his way to a .294/.392/.550 line. Finishing out the season at High-A Frederick, Reimold continued his hot hitting, belting six homers in 83 at-bats, with 12 walks but a ghastly 27 strikeouts. Still, his power potential was very encouraging, propelling the outfielder to a ranking of fourth-best in the Orioles' system and 99th-best in MLB. Acquitting himself well, Reimold was left to repeat High-A in 2006, where he would continue to work on his plate discipline and power stroke.

As in the season before, Reimold’s 2006 was a positive mix of power and plate discipline, but some nagging strikeout issues. With 19 home runs in 415 at-bats and a 76:107 walk to strikeout rate, Reimold put up a .255/.379/.455 line. While his BB:K rate was very encouraging—especially his 15.5 walk percentage—his strikeouts were still less than optimal, as he struck out in just under 26 percent of his at-bats. Without 30-plus home run power, it was starting to look like he would struggle to put up consistently good batting averages. Still, the Orioles had little to complain about with a powerful batter who profiled as a starting corner outfielder.

2007 was very much a lost season for Reimold, as he registered just 242 plate appearances between nine games at rookie ball and 50 at Double-A Bowie. In the time he did play, he posted another solid season for a power-hitting prospect, belting 11 home runs in 186 at bats. However, his plate discipline faltered in the promotion, as Double-A pitchers ate him up to a 0.36 BB:K ratio with 47 strikeouts in 186 at-bats, against just 17 walks. While he didn’t strike out with any more frequency at Double-A, the drop in walks was a concern, hinting that Reimold could have problems controlling the strike zone at the upper levels of the minors. Still, the season was a fine one and prospects had made careers with less. Still among the best prospects in the Orioles’ system, Reimold headed to 2008 scheduled for a repeat of Double-A Bowie, where he looked to put a full season together in his path to the big leagues.

His age-24 season under way, Reimold showed some good improvement in his second tour at Bowie. In 507 at-bats, Reimold slugged 25 home runs, with a 0.77 BB:K ratio. His walk rate recovered a bit from its 2007 decline, rising to 11.1 percent. Perhaps more exciting, however, was Reimold’s steep drop in strikeouts, as he whiffed just 82 times in 507 at-bats, good for a 16.2 percent K-rate. For a batter with good, not great, power like Reimold, this was a welcome development, as it was a great help to his rate statistics and batting averages. On the strength of his .284/.367/.501 line, Reimold headed to Triple-A as Baltimore’s fifth-best prospect and one with his eye on a possible big league call-up.

The 2009 season was a big one for the 25-year-old Reimold, as it included a blistering stint at Triple-A followed by his promotion and success as the major league level. His short stint at Triple-A consisted of just 31 games and 109 at-bats, including nine home runs and a .394/.485/.743 line. The big club needing reinforcements from injury early on, Reimold was called up in mid-May and stayed there for good. Playing in 104 games, Reimold performed very well, especially for a rookie getting his first dose of major league pitching. With 358 at-bats to his credit, he slugged 15 home runs to go along with a 0.61 BB:K ratio on his way to a .279/.365/.466 triple slash line. Overall, it was a very good rookie season, though not spectacular by any means.

The bottom line on Reimold seems to be that he is a good hitter though lacking in any real star power. For fantasy purposes, his power hitting is really his best asset, though it doesn’t seem to be anything out of the ordinary when it comes to fantasy batters. His 14.2 percent HR/FB ratio is a good number but nothing to write home about, comparable to Matt Kemp (14.4 percent), Pablo Sandoval (14.0 percent) and Mark DeRosa (14.5 percent). It would help his power numbers to hit a higher percentage of fly balls, as his 37.3 percent flyball rate is, again, nothing special. His 1.29 GB/FB rate could use a little help as well for a player profiling as a power hitter as Reimold does.

If anything in his batted ball profile could use improvement, however, it would be his line drive rate and his pop-up rate. With just a 14.4 percent line drive rate on the season, Reimold would benefit from hitting a few more line drives. However, his .320 BABIP means that the low line drive rate didn’t hurt him much last year. His pop-up rate of 16.0 percent is also a poor number, leading to too many easy outs. If he had qualified for the batting title last season, he would have had the fifth-highest pop-up rate in the league—not the most glowing review of his prospects for maintaining a .320 BABIP.

In terms of his plate discipline, what you see is just about what you get. His 21.5 percent strikeout rate and 11.6 percent walk rate are right about where you would expect them to be, given his plate discipline indicators. His 80.3 percent contact rate is good for a power hitter and his 20.5 percent O-Swing percentage is encouraging in that he doesn’t chase poor pitches often. With a 42.3 percent swing rate and 50.5 percent zone percentage, he will be continue to draw walks at a good rate, so there doesn’t seem to be much to worry about here. Everything seems to be right in place.

Overall, Reimold profiles as a below-average outfielder in 12-team mixed leagues, which, considering the standards it takes to be an average outfielder, is still valuable. For next year, he seems good for some where in the mid-20s for home runs, with a shot to launch 30 bombs. His batting average should fall somewhere right around .270, given a slight regression in his BABIP. Tossing in double-digit steals, he looks like a good bet for some decent production next year, but nothing overly spectacular.

When analyzing his stats early on, keep an eye on his line drive rate, strikeout rate, and O-Swing percentage. It would be nice to see an improvement in his line drive percentage, which would indicate that he is putting better swings on the ball. His strikeout rate and O-Swing rate will likely go hand-in-hand. If he can keep the O-Swing rate down, he’ll likely be fine on the strikeout front—which really hasn’t been problematic since 2007. In all, Reimold should be a solid pick, just don’t expect anything overwhelming out of his stat line.

VOTE ON NEXT WEEK'S PLAYER PROFILE

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Posted by Mike Silver at 12:48am

Tuesday, December 29, 2009

A decade of fantasy sports

In a similar vein to Chris Jaffe's spirit yesterday in his column, I figured I would forgo the traditional article highlighting some player or detailing some strategy I come up with and instead write a lighter piece on fantasy sports in general.

Lately I've come across a lot of "Best of the Decade" or "A Decade in Review" type lists in newspapers and magazines, and on television. It is amazing how the events of the past decade grow farther and farther into the past, and how they feel like they happened long ago when cataloged into lists such as "Most Influential Internet Moments of the Decade."

Similarly fantasy sports has come a long way since its inception in 1980 by writer Danny Okrent with his original Rotisserie League. Most of that change has come in the past decade with the usage of the internet that revolutionized fantasy sports from a time-consuming hobby reserved for fanatics to one that can be played casually with little commitment (though still can be time-consuming if one so chooses).

© Drew Litton (More cartoons at DrewLitton.com)

Although I was too young to be such a person, I've talked with people who played fantasy sports before the internet version arrived and heard them reminisce about keeping track of fantasy leagues through faxing and calling league members up on the phone to discuss trade offers only to be embarrassed when the person's wife answers. All of that was thrown out the window when commissioner.com (now CBSsports) offered league hosting (for a fee) and RotoNews (now RotoWire) offered immediate news updates on all players for the first time in 1997.

Yahoo Sports took the online boom to a new level in 1999 when it began offering hosting of fantasy leagues for free. To read their initial press release announcing the free fantasy leagues, click here. As for that A-Rod Club they started, that was an interesting experiment that seems to have deteriorated quickly.

As fantasy sports have grown (to something around 30 million+ people nowadays in North America), they have had a major impact on the "actual sports" they simulate. From the individual fan's perspective they have greatly increased knowledge of players on all teams, not just the local team. Without fantasy sports who would care about the minutia of the Cincinnati Reds outfield?

With that extended fan interest beyond just local teams comes a lot of extra revenue for sports in the form of larger TV deals, higher advertising prices, and greater sales of packages such as NFL Sunday Ticket and MLB.TV. According to a study by a University of Mississippi professor, fantasy sports has a $3 billion to $4 billion economic impact on the sports industry, and that makes me wonder why MLB Advanced Media and the Players Association would try to prevent fantasy sports sites from using players' names and stats without a licensing agreement in 2007. Luckily the courts ruled in favor of the fantasy sports sites saying: "It would be strange law that a person would not have a First Amendment right to use information that is available to everyone.''

Fantasy sports have truly come a long way and every year there seems to be some improvement with interfaces and new features added. I am not sure what the future of fantasy sports will look like, but I can say I am excited to see how the game evolves in the years to come.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:37am

Monday, December 28, 2009

Clone Wars: Justin Verlander and Ricky Nolasco

Even people who don't trust statistical analysis like FIP and xFIP know that Ricky Nolasco was not as bad as his 2009 ERA suggests. The question though is how good can he be once his numbers regress to the mean? I would like to suggest that his skills took the same leap in 2009 as Justin Verlander, but poor BABIP and LOB% caused the poor outcomes. Heading into 2010 this comparison might help us find out how good Nolasco will be.

           Record  ERA    K     BB   WHIP  K/9   BB/9  K/BB   GB%  xFIP
Verlander  19-9    3.45   269    63  1.18 10.09  2.36  4.27   36%  3.26
Nolasco    13-9    5.06   195    44  1.25  9.49  2.14  4.43 38.3%  3.28

If you hold your thumb over the ERA and take the number of innings pitched into account you're looking at a very solid matchup. From their strikeouts to walks to ground balls they could have been essentially the same pitcher in 2009. Looking here you can see Verlander even dealt with some poor luck of his own. If they were so close, though, what made the difference and will it happen again in 2010?

Team defense

MLB: JUL 11 Marlins v Dodgers
July 11, 2008: Florida Marlins pitcher Ricky Nolasco throws during a game against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Los Angeles, Ca on Saturday, July 11, 2008. (Icon/SMI)

First up is something the pitchers can't control. Their team defense was something that separates them and contributed to their ERA difference. Looking at UZR/150 for their teams, the Tigers had a 7.2 and the Marlins had a poor -3.4. That didn't really help Verlander's BABIP, which finished at .328, but did maintain a 72% LOB. On the other hand, the defense behind Nolasco led to a high BABIP at .336 and a low LOB% at 61%.

So the defense did have some effect on this comparison in 2009, but will it continue next year? It's possible there ares some positives for the Marlins as they are looking to move Dan Uggla and have already moved Jeremy Hermida. The two were poor defenders and an upgrade over them would be a positive for Nolasco. At the same time, Verlander is going to lose Placido Polanco next year; he was arguably the best defender on the Tigers.

Trying to put a projection on defense would be foolish, but with a few proper moves this could be a nonfactor for Nolasco in 2010 and make him more competitive.

Regression to the mean

Neither pitcher here had ever posted strikeout rates over 8.20 at the major league level and suddenly in 2009 they both passed nearly 9.50 K/9. That seems like something that is headed for a decline next year, but how far is the question. Both have career averages around 7.9-8 and that is where we should assume they will regress toward. Looking at Bill James' numbers he thinks both will be around 8.30 next year making both still impressive strikeout pitchers.

On the other hand, walk rate is something we might assume Nolasco will be better in next year. His career rate is 2.19, making his 2.14 this year not that surprising. Verlander, meanwhile, has a career rate of 3.02. That would make it a strong possibility that Verlander falls some in 2010 with his walk rate.

If we follow these expected numbers of regression, we can see that Nolasco is the stronger candidate to post better K/BB numbers in 2010. This doesn't guarantee he is the better pitcher, but it sure doesn't hurt.

Draft values

As close as these guys are, you can see how much value you could gain by waiting on Verlander and grabbing Nolasco. Since both should see a small amount of regression in their underlying numbers you might even see a better year from Nolasco. Currently at MockDraftCentral you can see Verlander is being selected around the 46 pick while Nolasco is going around 106. That is anywhere from three to four rounds later depending on your league size and well worth the wait.

Posted by Troy Patterson at 4:29am

Friday, December 25, 2009

Waiver Wire Offseason: NL

Dexter Fowler | Colorado | OF
2009 Final Stats: .266/.363/.406

I wrote about Colorado's crowded OF situation in an earlier Offseason Waiver Wire, and little has changed since that assessment. Colorado still needs to figure out if they're keeping Seth Smith, Ryan Spilborghs or Brad Hawpe, or if they can find a good trade partner for any of them.

Regardless of what happens, Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez are going to stick with the Rockies, though there's some question about where. Either could lead off or play center field, but Tracy leaned towards Fowler in center and Gonzalez at leadoff, with Fowler batting second. If that's how they play in 2010, it will affect Fowler only in his RBI and R totals, and perhaps his SBs. But is that the best spot for both?

Compared to CarGo, Fowler shows slightly better plate discipline and superior speed, so they could swap places. Fowler showed a 12.9 BB% and .58 BB/K in 2009, while CarGo turned in a 8.8 BB% and .40 BB/K. Despite those skills, CarGo outperformed Fowler in the leadoff spot, hitting .300/.379/.573 at the top of the order, with a whopping .391/.481/.913 as the first batter of the game, and .333/.409/.654 leading off the inning. Fowler, on the other hand, hit .255/.354/.394 as the leadoff hitter, including .183/.272/.317 as the first batter of the game, and .222/.326/.365 leading off an inning.

That could indicate Gonzalez can handle the leadoff pressure, or that these are statistical anomalies that will flatten out over time. Either way, it looks like Fowler should open up as Tracy's #2 hitter in 2010, but it might not stick. Gonzalez has had much more time at the AAA and big-league level, while Fowler has been rushed, so he could develop a bit more.

Fowler's shown the ability to adjust, improving his core skills at each minor-league level, with a BB/K that rose steadily from .37 in 2005 to .73 in 2008, and a walk rate that peaked at 15% in single-A Modesto, but was consistently over 10. Similarly, his contact skills got better, going from a 67% to a 79% in the same span.

So Fowler is likely to improve from the .58 BB/K and 73% contact rate he exhibited in 2009. Because he skipped AAA, he may take longer to develop than other players, however. 2010 could see him struggle more, with a potential demotion to AAA if the struggles become severe, particularly if the Rockies don't unload Smith, Hawpe or Spilborghs. Regardless, however, CF in Coors will be his, barring injury or blockbuster trade.

Where he should continue to provide value, no matter how long his hitting may take to develop, is with his speed—he reached base about 180 times in 2009, and attempted 37 steals, getting caught 10 times, for a success rate of 73%. This builds on a minor league trajectory where he also improved his stealing ability, ending with a 71% in 2008. Look for him to keep swiping bags, with his counting numbers rising as he learns to reach base more. I'd bet on him exceeding that 19 SB projection, assuming good health and PT.

The package makes Fowler absolutely keeper-worthy, particularly as he's begun to add power to his repertoire. Like other prospects, he may hit some bumps in 2010, which is why his OPS projection is fairly modest, but he'll definitely help you in SBs without killing you in other areas. If he can put it all together in 2010, of course, he's liable to help you in virtually every scoring category. I don't see him hitting his peak for another season or two, but he's going to provide value well into the future, and will probably be worth the extra buck or two in redraft leagues. Just remember how young he is and don't go more than that extra dollar.

Jordan Schafer | Atlanta | OF
2009 Final Stats: .204/.313/.287

Schafer has been one of Atlanta's top outfield prospects, but a variety of recent setbacks have really hurt his development. The first came in 2008 when he sat for 50 games after testing positive for HGH, but he began 2009 in the Braves' big-league starting lineup anyway. He looked like a winner at first, hitting two homers in his first three games, but hurt his wrist in their very first home series against Washington, a bone bruise that would derail this promising start.

From that point onwards, he would hit .181/.296/.222 in 44 games, earning a demotion to AAA in June as the wrist continued to bother him. Several days later, he reported hearing a pop in his wrist, and he was put on the DL for what became a season-long stint. After trying non-invasive procedures to heal it, Atlanta opted to put him under the knife for a surgery that would stabilize his wrist by stringing a wire between two bones. At last report, he was healing fine and only recently came out of his cast.

The Braves are now expecting him to report to spring training fully recovered, but the picture has become much muddier. The trade for Nate McLouth came soon after Schafer's demotion, and the recent swap for Melky Cabrera puts two substantial roadblocks in his road back to CF. Matt Diaz nailed down a corner spot with a strong platoon-free 2009 and 19-year old prospect Jason Heyward, considered much more of an offensive threat than Schafer, is chomping at the bit after a .323/.408/.555 season at three levels in 2009.

Right now, the Braves have said that Schafer should begin the season in AAA, unsurprising because of his health and performance issues, as well as the simple arithmetic of playing time. The drug suspension and last year's wrist problems mean that he's only accumulated 582 PAs in the past two seasons, with just 233 of them above AA. Add that to the rehab of a surgically repaired wrist, and you can see Schafer's far from a sure bet and is unlikely to provide much value for your team in 2010.

He's going to need plenty more seasoning before he comes back to the bigs for good, and when he does, McLouth (signed through 2012) is in his way, barring another trade. Cabrera is more of a fourth outfielder than a real impediment to Schafer or any other young prospect, and Matt Diaz isn't a huge roadblock, either. But it does mean that Schafer will have to recover much of his old skills to crack the big-league lineup.

When he does, you can expect a well-rounded player with a 75% contact rate in the minors, a 9% walk rate, a .41 batting eye, 66 SBs (in 102 attempts) and a .269/.337/.446 batting line. None of those are particularly eye-popping, so while scouts love the package he offers and he'll eventually help in most categories, he's not a top-shelf fantasy stud.

With the setbacks he's endured, and the rocky path to a full-time role, Schafer can probably be ignored on Draft Day, except by the deepest of keeper leagues. Watch him in Spring Training to see how his wrist has healed and (obviously) whether he starts the year with the Braves in Atlanta or the Braves in Gwinnett County.

Martin Gandy, the GP Atlanta Braves expert, didn't believe that Schafer would get any significant PAs at all, which is why there's no GP mini-browser for him. But anything can happen, so he's worth monitor throughout the season, but he's really not worth a fantasy roster spot unless he's got a starting spot—even then, his ceiling is nowhere near Fowler's.

Andrew McCutchen | Pittsburgh | OF
2009 Final Stats: .286/.365/.471

And then there are the players who surprise you. Everyone knew McCutchen had skills, but we analysts focused on his great speed and batting ability, not his power. After all, the guy had a .286/.362/.423 minor-league line, with 43 HRs spread over 5 seasons; the 96 doubles, like the 22 triples, we ascribed to his fleet feet. We clucked our tongues at the .233 OPS platoon differential, and wrung our hands about applying those skills atop the pitiful Pittsburgh Pirates' batting order.

Then Pittsburgh promoted McCutchen on June 4, and he somehow shut our mouths while simultaneously making our jaws drop. He reached base three times in his first game, scoring each time, swiping one bag and driving in a run for good measure. He hit .400/.423/.600 over his first five games, and .330/.371/.516 over his first twenty, including a 13-game hit streak (he only had three hitless games in those first twenty games), 5 triples, 14 runs and 18 RBI.

When he went 1-20 over his next five games, we analysts patted ourselves on our backs and spoke wisely on small sample spaces and regressions to the mean. But McCutchen responded by hitting .302/.364/.538 over the next month (including a 3 HR performance on August 1) and .265/.379/.490 the month after that, in effect telling us prognosticators what we could do with our prognostications. He finished the year with that very nice slash line above, which included 26 2Bs, 9 3Bs, 12 HRs, 74 R, 22 SBs, 54 RBI, and fourth place in RoY voting.

Though his .327 BABIP was perhaps a bit high, even for a speedster, there was plenty to like in McCutchen's secondary stats. His .81 contact rate was consistent with his .82 rate in the minors, and his .65 BB/K was in line with his .64 minor-league ratio. His 11% walk rate is a tad better than his 10% in the minors, while the 9.4% HR/FB shows he wasn't particularly lucky in those longballs, too. As impressive was his improvement to a .110 OPS platoon differential, proof that he'd taken a solid skill base and added to it. The kid had really arrived.

Unfortunately, he'd arrived to the same old Pirates, whose offense proved to be as bad as everyone imagined, scoring the fewest runs in the NL. Still, McCutchen scored nearly 11% and knocked in 8.5% of their 636 R scored, a figure that's even more impressive when you consider he missed the first two months of the MLB season.

In 2010, the Pirates offense should get better, with Aki Iwamura hitting behind McCutchen, and Doumit and Jones in the run-producing slots, so McCutchen should continue to rack up the runs and the SBs. But playing with Pittsburgh does cap his potential somewhat from a counting stat perspective.

With his solid secondary indicators, his BA and OBP should stay strong, while that surprising power should also continue. As his GP projection shows, you shouldn't expect him to crack .500 SLG, but he should reach 450+ sooner rather than later. If there's a lesson to be learned from those of us who discounted McCutchen, it's that a talented athlete can develop in unexpected ways, especially when he's still young.

Next week, we'll look at Stephen Drew, the enigmatic Garrett Jones and Randy Wells. Please add whatever other players you'd like to read about in the comments field, as we're quickly approaching the time when I'll shift into counting down the top 2009 fantasy producers to see how they'll do in 2010.

May your Christmas presents all be as surprising as Andrew McCutchen's power surge, your family gatherings less painful than Schafer's wrist injury, and your travels as swift and smooth as Dexter Fowler gliding into second base!

And don't forget—The Graphical Player 2010 is available from ACTA Sports, making the perfect last-minute gift for the fantasy player in your life. Happy Holidays!

Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am

Thursday, December 24, 2009

Player Profile: Troy Tulowitzki

Rockies Tulowitzki Waits in On Deck Circle in Denver

Well, Phil Hughes was the true winner of the poll, but his fantasy value seems to have taken a hit with the New York Yankees’ signing of Javier Vazquez, which significantly hurts Hughes' chances at locking up a rotation spot in 2010. So, instead, we’ll focus on Colorado shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.

That’s what we call a rebound year. After turning in a paltry 2008 in which he burned plenty of fantasy owners, myself included, Tulo came back in a big way, blasting 32 home runs in 543 at-bats on his way to a .297/.377/.552 line. Though he was also quite good in 2007, this was a breakout year of sorts for the young shortstop, as he improved in a number of facets of his game, which substantially improved his outlook for the future.

Troy Tulowitzki was drafted seventh overall by the Colorado Rockies in 2005 out of Long Beach State. He premiered that season at High-A ball, where he acquitted himself nicely, showing decent power and strike zone judgment, slugging four home runs in 94 at-bats to go along with a 1/2 BB/K rate. Scouts loved his tools and upside, as Tulo ranked as Colorado’s second-best prospect and 25th in the majors.

To begin 2006, the Colorado brass promoted Tulo to Double-A Tulsa. There, he impressed again, hitting 13 home runs in 423 at-bats, with 46 walks against 71 strikeouts. His .291/.370/.473 line got the attention of the big club, who promoted Tulo for a 25-game stretch. Not surprisingly, the young shortstop struggled in his first taste of the bigs, posting a .240/.318/.292 line, with 25 strikeouts in 96 at-bats. Still, the optimists couldn’t be drowned out, as Tulo topped the charts in the Colorado system while also placing 15th in MLB. With the big league job available, Colorado promoted Tulo to the majors for good, where he would begin 2007.

The 2007 season was a banner one for Tulowitzki. The pride of the Colorado system, Tulo exploded onto the scene his rookie season. Through 609 at-bats, the shortstop slugged 24 home runs in 609 at-bats, with a .291/.359/.479 line. His 57 walks weren’t the best—and neither was his 130 strikeout total. Still, he was quite the rookie—and at shortstop no less. As a result, the team signed him to a six-year, $31 million contract in January that would carry him through the 2013, with a team option for 2014. With the sky the limit, the Rockies headed into 2008 with their prized shortstop locked up for the long term and hopes of an NL West championship. The results would be much different.

The 2008 season was not kind to Tulowitzki. Battling injuries and a sophomore slump, Tulo struggled to put up a respectable stat line. His power disappeared, as he hit just eight home runs in 377 at-bats, while his OPS sagged over .100 points, as he posted a .263/.332/.401 line. On the bright side, his walk rate improved, from 8.6 percent in 2007 to 9.2 percent, and his strikeout rate dropped to 14.9 percent. There was not much else that could be salvaged from the season, however, as quadriceps and a hand injuries slowed his season and he played just 101 games. As a result, all the team could do was look forward to 2009 and greener pastures.

Looking for – or, perhaps, desperately needing – a big rebound, Tulowitzki set out to prove that 2008 was a fluke. And prove he did, with the best season of his career and one of the best of any shortstop in 2009. Besides the obvious power and speed surge witnessed last year, Tulowitzki matured at the plate in a number of ways.

For one, he became more selective at the plate. His 73 walks in 628 plate appearances was a great step forward for the hitter, as he was able to reach the 10 percent walk rate milestone. His 20.6 strikeout percentage was also an accomplishment, given his increases in walks. Many hitters see a substantial increase in strikeouts as they become more selective. However, Tulo’s strikeout rate was right in line with his career rate of 19.9 percent, and his 0.65 BB/K rate was above his career rate of 0.55.

His selectivity showed in his plate discipline indicators as well, as his O-Swing percentage dropped over 2 percentage points from 2008 (23.7 percent in 2008 to 21.5 percent in 2009), while his Z-Swing percentage remained relatively steady, dropping just 0.3 percentage points from 2008. This suggests that his strike zone judgment improved, as he swung at a higher proportion of the pitches inside the zone.

Though his contact rate decreased from 2008 by 1.2 percentage points, an 83.9 percent contact rate is a fine number and should be adequate going forward. In addition, his Zone percentage dropped 4 percentage points from 2008 (54.8 percent in 2008 to 50.8 percent in 2009) as pitchers began to respect his power. This bodes well for Tulo’s walk totals. Should his batting eye continue to develop the way it did in 2009, Tulo could become quite the walk machine with a drop in his O-Swing percentage.

Still, besides his obvious power increase and improved plate discipline, there was not much of a change in Tulo’s game between the 2008 and 2009 seasons. His batting profile stayed quite constant, as his GB/FB ratio stayed right above 1 (1.13 GB/FB in 2008 versus 1.05 in 2009) and his infield flyball percentage remained almost constant (11.7 percent in 2008 versus 11.6 in 2009). Though his line drive percentage dropped between 2008 and 2009 (20.5 percent in 2008 versus 18.4 percent in 2009), his BABIP showed no ill effects, actually climbing by over 30 points, to .323—up from .291 in 2008. In a way, it almost goes to show how unreliable line drive percentage can be on its own as a predictor of BABIP.

For 2010, there are a few keys to watch. The most important part of Tulo’s game will certainly be his improved power output. This was the big key to his 2009 reclamation, as his HR/FB rate almost tripled, climbing from 6.7 percent in 2008 to 18.5 percent in 2009. It is a bit tough seeing him repeat these numbers, though he does play half of his games at a high altitude. Like every other Rockies hitter, he plays far better at home, with a .326/.403/.597 line at Coors in 2009, versus a .267/.352/.507 line everywhere else. Still, with his youth and favorable contract, you won’t have to worry about him being traded midseason and losing half his value like many other Colorado hitters. His 18.5 percent HR/FB rate puts him right above Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Kendry Morales and Mark Teixeira. While it’s certainly possible that Tulo carries that kind of thump in his bat, it may be a bit optimistic. Expect some regression in this category.

If there’s room for more optimism, it may lie in his left/right and pre-/post-All-Star splits. He had a bit of a reverse platoon split last season, with a .269/.382/.519 line against lefties versus a .307/.376/.566 line against righties. Should that line begin to favor the opposite hand as it does most other hitters, it will be a nice little bonus to his overall line. As for his post-All-Star explosion, he batted a blistering .344/.421/.622 after the break last season, with a 34/48 BB/K ratio. If you’re into that sort of thing and like the good vibrations coming off his bat late in the year, than you can take comfort in that stat.

For 2010, watch Tulo’s HR/FB rate, his O-Swing rate, and his Zone percentage. If his HR/FB rate is high, which it should be, he’ll be in line for another season like this past one—though don’t bank on 30+ home runs. In addition, his O-Swing rate will have a lot to say about whether he drives the ball in the upcoming season, so whether he can maintain or improve on his 2009 figure is a key factor in his success next year. And, rounding it out, his Zone percentage will help you gauge his walk and strikeout rates. Tied to his HR/FB rate and his O-Swing rate, if he can slug home runs out of the park on a regular basis, while laying off pitches outside the zone, he’ll find himself in frequent hitter’s counts and taking a free pass to first. This will help considerably, especially in OPS leagues.

Overall, think of Tulo next season as a 25-homer guy, with a shot a 30 bombs, who can post upwards of 100 runs and 100 RBIs. A .280-.290 average seems about right, though his stolen base numbers are tough to predict since this is his first season where he showcased his speed on the basepaths. Twenty steals may be a bit optimistic, though 10-15 is certainly plausible. All told, Tulo looks like one of the best options at shortstop for 2010. Even with his poor 2008, he looks like a very good bet to produce in 2010. Draft him with confidence.

And if I’m lucky enough to come across him next season in Colorado Springs, I’ll ask him to put in an extra bomb or two for the readers.

VOTE ON NEXT WEEK'S PLAYER PROFILE

*Feel free to also use the text box to nominate players for next week's poll.

Posted by Mike Silver at 6:00am

Tuesday, December 22, 2009

The A’s get Crisp-ier

Crisp fighting a ball off his hands for a single.

A couple of days ago it was announced that the A's have come to an agreement with free agent outfielder Coco Crisp on a one-year contract worth around 4.5 million. The deal is pending an important physical considering Crisp is coming off surgeries to both of his shoulders that caused him to miss the last 100 games of 2009.

Fallout: Crisp

The A's are not the type of team that goes around handing out multi-million dollar contracts like free Chinese food samples at the mall and then decides to not play the guy, so most likely Crisp will see plenty of at-bats as the Athletics' new leadoff hitter in 2010. Assuming a year of good health from Crisp, let's see what we can predict his upcoming season will look like.

+------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| Year | Age | AB  | R  | HR | RBI | SB | AVG   |
+------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+
| 2005 |  25 | 594 | 86 | 16 |  69 | 15 | 0.300 |
| 2006 |  26 | 413 | 58 |  8 |  36 | 22 | 0.264 |
| 2007 |  27 | 526 | 85 |  6 |  60 | 28 | 0.268 |
| 2008 |  28 | 361 | 55 |  7 |  41 | 20 | 0.283 |
| 2009 |  29 | 180 | 30 |  3 |  14 | 13 | 0.228 |
+------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+

Crisp experienced his breakout season in 2004 as a 24-year-old on the Indians, and followed that campaign up with another gem in 2005 that led to him being the favorite of ESPN analysts everywhere. In those two seasons he displayed a rare three-tool combination of average, power, and speed ability that looked attractive to MLB teams and fantasy owners alike.

Crisp's prime career years, however, have not smelled as sweet. Ever since his participation in the suspicious Andy Marte trade that sent him to Boston, Crisp has played a full season only once, and has not hit above .285 nor reached double-digit home runs in a season. After an injury-ruined 2009, Crisp hit the free agency market this offseason and surprisingly netted this 4.5 million contract from, of all teams, the Athletics.

Crisp has the potential to be an impact player in 2010, with a .290 average, 10 home run, and 25 steal season not out of the question. RBIs will most likely come sparsely for Crisp, but batting leadoff for any team, even the A's, will net him decent runs totals in the 80s or perhaps 90s.

That, of course, is assuming good health and is a "best-scenario" prediction. A more reasonable projection would look something like a .270 average, six home runs, and a similar 20 steals. That line does have value in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only leagues, and if the Athletics live up to the credence of their name and send the fleet-footed Crisp stealing often, then he could even become worthy of ownership in shallower mixed leagues because of steals totals alone.

Fallout: A's outfielders

This signing does impact players beyond just Crisp, as the way playing time is distributed to the rest of the Oakland outfield is altered. The other two outfielders expected to keep their starting roles are fellow speedster Rajai Davis and possible breakout player Ryan Sweeney. This leaves the recently acquired Scott Hairston without a defined role in the A's offense and reaffirms the organization's abandonment of Travis Buck. Also, two players who might have reached the majors in 2010, Aaron Cunningham and the even more recently acquired Michael Taylor, now have their chances of seeing significant MLB playing time slashed dramatically.

Obviously it is still early in the offseason and what's been a busy offseason will continue to be, so future moves can completely change what the 2010 landscape will look like. As for the A's, either Hairston or perhaps Davis will be shipped out to alleviate the logjam in the outfield. And since we are talking about the A's, once the season starts injuries will probably resolve any playing time conflicts that arise between players.

Summary

To recap, this signing is good for Crisp since he signed with a team that is dedicated to giving him playing time, but also negative since the A's play in a poor hitters' park and also have one of the worst offenses in the majors. The upcoming season appears to be a chance for the 30-year-old to redeem himself for the letdowns of past years, and playing in the relaxed Oakland atmosphere may provide him with the right scenery to post decent fantasy numbers reminiscent of his 2005 season.

Sweeney and Davis are not affected by the signing; however, that slew of A's outfielders mentioned before—Hairston, Buck, Cunningham, and Taylor—all figure to lose playing time one way or another because of Crisp's arrival to the Bay Area.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:25am

The ‘optimistic’ Bill James projections

Bill James has A-Rod down for 37 HRs while CHONE has him down for 34. Does that mean the James system is higher on A-Rod than CHONE? The answer may surprise you. (Icon/SMI)

It's that time of year when projection systems are starting to be released. CHONE was released about a month ago, ZiPS is in the process of being released one team at a time, and Marcels will probably make an appearance sometime in the next few weeks. For hardcore fantasy baseball enthusiasts, it can be a lot of fun to go through the various systems and see how they are viewing players and how they stack up against each other. While I enjoy this time of year as much as anyone else, one of my biggest pet peeves is when people start talking about how optimistic the Bill James projection system is. Some examples of this sentiment:

Pending Pinstripes (Yankees blog):

I've always thought that the Bill James projections were wildly optimistic, but they're still interesting to look at.

The McCovey Chronicles (Giants blog) comments section:

Considering how crazy-optimistic Bill James projections usually are, that seems awfully pessimistic for Affeldt.

The Crawfish Boxes (Astros blog):

Surprisingly, James has an offensive prediction for Chris Johnson, and even more surprisingly, James is somewhat more optimistic about Johnson than most of us on this board (including me). Obviously, James' system believes that Johnson's minor league numbers indicate decent enough power to offset, at least in part, a paltry OBP. I have my doubts on that.

South Side Sox (White Sox blog):

James tends to have the most optimistic projections of any of the major forecasters, specifically for young players.

Driveline Mechanics:

The James projections often seem optimistic...

I think you get the idea.

Flawed logic

Inevitably, each year, the James system seems to be higher on the vast majority of players than are other systems such as CHONE, ZiPS, or Oliver. And inevitably, each year, baseball analysts see nothing wrong with making straight comparisons between systems. A couple weeks ago, I saw one article about Jake Fox that read:

For 2010, Bill James projects a whopping .284/.339/.546 line for Fox in limited playing time. That strikes me as wildly optimistic. CHONE’s forecast appears much more reasonable, with a projected .257/.316/.452 performance.

Other times, we'll see straight comparisons to previous years:

Bill James is super-optimistic - when I looked at the projections they came up with a few years ago, he had the majority of starters being better than average at every single position.

Still other times, sites will refer to the James projections while completely ignoring the context under which they were created:

James also projects Jose Reyes will return from injury to hit .285 with 57 stolen bases, 14 home runs, 67 RBI and 113 runs created.

…man, i hope so… it looks to me like James essentially took Jose’s brief 36 games in 2009 and extended them out over 162 games, which is totally fine by me.

Or:

The projections here are extremely pleasing. I believe that they’re too optimistic, though, especially for the bullpen.

This isn't a shot at these articles or writers in the slightest, but I believe this line of reasoning—which is common across many sites and blogs—is a bit flawed, so today I'd like to help correct some of the common errors and misconceptions that many seem to have about projections.

Relativity and context

The most important concept I'd like to stress is that of relativity. The kinds of articles I just mentioned operate under the assumption that the James projection for a player should be looked at relative to another system's projection for him or relative to last year. This is incorrect, though. What we should be doing is examining the James projection for a player relative to all of the other players the James system projects.

As I've stressed many times before, context is of the utmost importance when it comes to almost anything fantasy baseball related. In this case, most people ignore the run environment that the James projection system assumes. To illustrate my point, I'll use a very extreme example. Let's say that we transport Albert Pujols and his 44 HR projection into a league where it is common for the worst players to hit 80 HRs per year and the best to top 200 HRs. While Pujols and his 44 HRs look terrific in our reality, in this new one it looks kind of pathetic. That's context.

"What does this have to do with the James projections, though," you ask? Well, while the James projections don't assume a run environment where people are routinely hitting 200 HRs, it usually does assume that hitters perform a little bit better, on the whole (when compared to previous seasons or other projection systems). So if everyone is being projected to hit a few extra HRs, it does not necessarily make Alex Rodriguez's 37 HR projection any more optimistic than CHONE's 34 HR projection.

After all, when we're drafting players in fantasy leagues, it doesn't matter if the first pick has 200 HRs and the second pick has 190 or if the first pick has 40 and the second has 38. We don't care about the actual numbers; we care about the relative rankings. It doesn't matter if James has Albert Pujols at 44 HRs and CHONE only has him at 39. If James is inflating numbers across the board, Pujols will still be considered the No. 1 pick and everyone else will fall in line behind him, regardless of the system used or whether or not its numbers are inflated relative to other systems—we just can't mix-and-match.

Comparing systems

So how can we compare systems if we can't do it directly? Ideally, we'd find the league average for all systems for all of our relevant stats (or even more ideally, the average for all players that will be drafted in a particular fantasy league, though that obviously works better in theory than in practice) and create a set of conversion factors so direct comparisons can be made between systems.

I didn't buy the Bill James Handbook or the projections this year, so I don't know what its league average is (and thus am not 100% certain that the James system is actually inflating stats this year, but they have been inflated in the past and anecdotally seem to be this year). If anyone wants to share what the league average is for James (or other systems that require payment), I'd be happy to whip up some quick conversion factors and post them for everyone to make use of.

Outliers

"But what about players whom the James system is extremely high on? Should they be disregarded?" Of course not. Like any other system, James will like certain players more than those other systems. They're just a little tougher to pick out without applying the conversion factors since we have to guess at how much we should discount their stats. One guy who might fit this criteria this year, though, is Mark Reynolds. James has him down for 40 HRs while CHONE is at just 30. Marcels will likely be closer to 30 as well when it comes out. That's a big difference, even considering inflation. We just need to remember that all systems will favor certain players and show a distribution of players they like (relative to other systems), dislike, and are neutral on.

Fan Projections

One last point is that the fan projections FanGraphs is running will likely be sitting in the same boat with the James projections. I'd guess that fans will be more apt to project players they like, which means league average will probably be a bit higher for these projections as well. Just something to keep in mind.

Concluding thoughts

Hopefully this has cleared up some confusion regarding projections, specifically regarding the Bill James system. If you have any questions, feel free to e-mail me or post in the comments.

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:00am

Monday, December 21, 2009

Festivus time: the airing of grievances

Sometimes I allow myself to indulge in the delusion that there exists a substantial amount of readers who eagerly anticipate my columns each week. In this delusion, such readers are drawn to my columns because I provide useful information. Unfortunately for those readers, this column will not offer such information. Fortunately for me, this theoretical group may not even exist, so I likely won’t be disappointing anybody.

In the spirit of Festivus, I’d like to take some time this week to engage in some airing of grievances. The topic? Trades, and more specifically the ridiculous types of trade offers we are bombarded with every season. There are several distinct types of idiotic trade offers and I plan to complain about a few of them.

Now, before unleashing the vitriol, I will readily acknowledge that making trades in fantasy baseball is often rather difficult. As Jonathan Halket describes in his “Drafting to Trade” column:

To make a trade, there must be what economists call a "double coincidence of wants." Your team must not only have something the other owner wants, but you must be willing to give up a player that the other owner values more highly than the player he is giving up.

It is often difficult to find a trade partner. An ideal trade partner would have some sort of deficiency in a category or position in which you have excess, while you must have an excess of something in which the other team has a deficiency. This confluence of circumstances is more rare than it sounds. The reality of an “imperfect market” makes even the simplest of trade strategies, “buy low/sell high,” somewhat challenging to actually execute. I understand that often times initial trade offers are intended to be a jumping off point for negotiations, but the whole trading process would be a lot less frustrating if owners avoided proposing the following types of non-starters in the first place.

The sports-talk radio proposal: I won’t presume to speak for anybody else. But for me, listening to sports talk radio is something approximating what I imagine being torture..., um, experiencing enhanced interrogation at the hands of the CIA would feel like. Occasionally, I will listen for a short period of time in order to confirm that I do have some masochist tendencies. The most inane of the inane calls into these radio stations must be the ones in which fans propose trades that their franchises should make. The underlying philosophy of these trade proposals seems to be that five 1978 Dodge Dusters equal one 2010 Maybach. No, I do not want a No. 3 starter and bench players for Ryan Braun, thank you. And, no throwing in a third and fourth bench player does not help make the proposal any more attractive.

The barely legal proposal: Sometimes, you’ll hear guys speak creepily about eagerly awaiting the moment when some attractive young teenage girl turns 18 so they can pounce. Yeah, I know it’s disgusting, but it happens. What does this have to do with fantasy baseball, you ask... Did you ever draft an injured stud on draft day at a large discount? Or, have you ever had one of your best players go down with an injury which keeps him out for a month or longer? Of course you have. And, of course you know what happens in this situation. As soon as that player regains health, the trade offers flood in. I did not draft an injured A-Rod at the 23rd overall pick so that I can trade him for the 25th overall pick after waiting for a month to get him into my lineup. If I wanted that player, I would have drafted him when I drafted the injured A-Rod.

The pin-the-tail-on-the-donkey proposal: Most trade offers are unattractive due to being poorly thought out, more so than being lopsided value-wise. Other owners just often, seemingly randomly, offer up some mass of semi-equal value for their targeted player without taking into account any practical context.

There are many forms the oblivious trade proposal can take, such as asking for my best source of stats for a single category while offering no contribution in that category in return, or offering me a position or category I already have an abundance of while asking for a position or category I’m fighting to remain competitive in.

I really wish people would go about proposing trades more intelligently and think about whether they are attempting to offer something that the other team might see as valuable. Identify the skill set/positional upgrade you are looking for and make a list of the players who fit that bill. Give some thought to what level of player you want to ask for and what players/categories you are most willing to give up. Look at the standings and rosters and see which teams are in need of what you are willing to give up and see if the any of the players on your list are on any of those teams. This is not rocket science, people!

I’m sure you readers out there have trade proposal horror stories and other awful trade proposal archetypes to share. So, let’s hear them. In addition to the trade proposal archetypes, there are also difficult owner archetypes. There’s the owner who overvalues all of his players and always wants something for nothing. There’s the overzealous owner who constantly hounds you to make trades, despite the fact that you’ve made it clear you aren’t interested. There’s the owner who stalks a player of yours and sends you offer after offer for that player (although this case can be advantageous because it’s basically an invitation to propose a lopsided offer to that owner that includes the player he wants). Feel free to chime in with your thoughts about owner types as well.

Before signing off, I will attempt to impart a piece of useful information (I feel a little guilty). I’ve touched on this point before, but I’d like to make it explicit here, in practicality, there is no such thing as a two-for-one trade in most forms of fantasy baseball. There is always a fourth player involved in these trades. Fantasy teams are not major league franchises; we don’t have several levels of minor league teams plus baseball academies in foreign countries to stash a virtually infinite amount of players. When you make a two-for-one trade, you must drop somebody on your team to accommodate the new player. In most two-for-one trades, the team getting the two players plans to play both of those players in their starting lineup. This also means that the trade pushes that team’s worst producing regular (or positional overstock) to the bench along with pushing a bench player to the waiver wire.

Therefore, a team does not reap the full value of the second player. The true value-add of that second player is the difference between that player and the player he will replace in your starting lineup.

In one sense, you can view the value as being the difference between the new player and the old starter, plus the difference between the old starter and the team’s least valuable bench player. These trades can strengthen your bench, but it is somewhat ambiguous as to how we can quantify that value, as that value is largely non-contributive to your bottom line. This secondary affect on team depth is worth noting, though.

This isn’t really an incredibly advanced concept, but I’ve noticed that people all too often neglect to keep it in mind when proposed with a two-for-one. For this reason, two-for-ones often look to be more appealing on paper than they are prudent in practice.