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Wednesday, March 31, 2010The usual suspectsI participated in four mixed league drafts over the past week. So, I decided that for this week’s column, I’d look at some players who have made appearances on more than one of my teams. I figure that if I was able to land a player in multiple league that is an indicator that he was either undervalued by the market, overvalued by me, or perhaps a bit of both. Just to provide a bit of context, in all four of these leagues I chose to abstain from drafting a pitcher until somewhere in the neighborhood of pick 100. I was hoping to get Cole Hamels as my ace in as many leagues as possible, figuring he was the most undervalued truly elite pitcher. So, a fair amount of my repeat offenders will be upside pitchers who were there for the taking in the pick 150-240 range. Without further ado, let’s get into the players who will make me very happy or rather frustrated over the next seven months. 4 for 4 Roy Oswalt. Full disclosure: I love Roy Oswalt and he was very good to me back when he was a perennial Cy Young candidate. So, there is a bit of the late night meet-up with the old flame thing going here. But there were other reasons Oswalt found his way to me so often. I think players returning from injury are generally undervalued. I was also shopping for a lot of high risk/reward types, so I felt Oswalt represented something of a more balanced risk asset. I still think there is fairly nice upside potential, especially considering how late I got him, but I also think that aside from injury, he doesn’t have nearly the bust potential of a Scott Kazmir or Jonathan Sanchez. Max Scherzer … or Max Scherzer. Scherzer is one of my favorite of the high-ceiling, late-round starters though. If he can toss 185-200 innings, which remains to be seen, he could put up 200 Ks. Oliver seems to love him as well. The move to AL is reason for some concern, but any step forward in Scherzer’s development should easily outstrip the penalty of switching leagues. His run support should increase as well. 3 for 4 Nelson Cruz. Cruz is another player whom Oliver seems to really like, and I can’t say I disagree. He hit 33 homers and stole 20 bases (while getting caught just four times) in 128 games last year. He hits in a great park and in a potent line-up and he’ll start the season at 29 years of age. The only thing not to love is his batting average, which I tried to account for in my drafts. I actually made a cognizant effort to draft better batting average candidates in my earliest picks than in years past. This was because as I kept looking for offensive players I thought would be bargains, the emerging trend was that batting average appeared the most common risk/deficiency. So, I thought to myself that in order to be able to carry such players, I’d need to have a strong core of .300 hitters. Cruz is likely to be a stud regardless, but even more so if you’ve already accounted for his potentially questionable batting average. Aramis Ramirez. Although I thrice selected Aramis, I did so with a bit of trepidation each time. Every year there are high-ranked players whom I have every intention of avoiding but who slip far enough that it forces me to give serious consideration to said player’s upside. Basically, three times I was unable to resist Ramirez’s price. With 3B being fairly thin this year as well, I often looked at Ramirez as the last player available with the true elite potential. Ramirez has done it before and continues to do it so long as he remains in the line-up. And, frankly, I think his injury history is a tad overstated. Considering where I got him in some of the drafts, I think 130 games plus his replacement would actually be fair value. Ted Lilly. I discussed Lilly last week. He’s the definition of underrated and he gets snubbed every year. This season he’s coming of an injury to boot but is only slated to miss the first two weeks of the season. Anything resembling his past three seasons will be a tremendous value considering how late I was able to snag him. Brad Lidge. In one of my drafts, closers without any job security, including guys still in competition for a job (Matt Lindstrom, Chris Perez) were being drafted before Lidge. Now, I understand the reason to be skeptical of Lidge and I didn’t go into my drafts targeting him, per se, but if last year proved anything, it’s that he has as long a leash as any closer in the game. We also kind of went through this whole “what’s wrong with Brad Lidge?” act already, back in 2006. I made very small investments in a guy who has shown that he can be a truly elite closer in this league, even on the biggest stage there is. Once he comes back, how bad can it be? ... Famous last words, I know. 2 for 4 Though I will not go into these players in depth because it’s not as strong a statement that they found their way onto two of my teams, it’s still quite possible they are undervalued. Ryan Braun – one of these was a keeper, the other time I took him with the fourth pick, so no undervaluing going on here Victor Martinez – similar to the Aramis Ramirez dynamic, but I was actually more comfortable drafting him Aaron Hill – even though I got him twice, I wouldn’t necessarily say I clearly saw him as a bargain Andre Ethier – love the power potential, and at age 28, who’s to say his best isn’t yet to come? Joakim Soria – the crop of top-tier closers was thinner than ever, and I like to get one Lance Berkman – injury is a concern and he may not start the season with the team, but Puma’s never been this cheap, bonus points in OPS leagues Cole Hamels – as I mentioned, my vote for best potential value among luxury brand pitchers Ricky Nolasco – my first starter selected when I missed out on Hamels, ceiling is through the roof … even though I believe that’s architecturally impossible Jake Peavy – twice my second starter selected, classic risk/reward pick Rafael Soriano – top-five closer if he stays healthy Hunter Pence – solid value, discipline improved last year, would love to see him score more runs though, not sure if that’s possible in the Astros line-up Ryan Ludwick – would have to slip into a coma to not drive in 100 batting behind Pujols and Holliday Rajai Davis – I love him, and so does Oliver. As high speed potential as Juan Pierre and likely more useful in other categories. I could totally see him out-producing Michael Bourn Jonathan Sanchez – another potential 200 K starter way deep Scott Kazmir – injury concerns started already, but the guy did lead the AL in Ks in 2007 Cody Ross – another player Oliver loves Ryan Doumit – it’s criminal how far he slipped in some of my drafts Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:37am Tuesday, March 30, 2010Sleepers awokenEvery year it happens and this year is no exception: There are a few players who start off as great values where they are drafted early in the offseason but by the time March rolls around, these players are everybody's favorite picks and are snatched faster than cupcakes at a child's birthday party. While these players are great players with inspiring potential for the upcoming season, I feel too many people are looking too far into what these players might possibly do as opposed to what they most likely will do. Here is a list of a few of those players whose hype trains are being boarded a few stops too early:
Julio BorbonIn the 12th round, where Borbon is taken on average in drafts, he is a decent pick. However I've seen him go as high as the eighth round, which is like buying a seed and expecting a tree to grow, instead of simply buying the tree itself for the same price. That was a bad metaphor—I'm aware—but nevertheless he most likely will bat around .275 with a handful of home runs and about 30 to 40 steals. When taken in the eighth round, his ceiling of a .300 average and 40 steals is needed to justify the pick while that line is much closer to Shane Victorino's average line and he can be taken around this time as well. Brett AndersonI love Anderson as much as the next guy, but I admittedly loved him more when he could be drafted comfortably around round 16. Now the word is clearly out and I've seen him go as high as pick 108, which would be fine assuming he throws 200 innings with a 3.75 ERA and 175 strikeouts. Even though I certainly believe he is capable of posting those type of numbers based on what he did last year as a 21-year-old, taking him there means picking him over an impressive array of pitchers with more proven track records. I find that difficult to do. Elvis AndrusThere is certainly a lot to like about Andrus—his name, his slick fielding abilities, his youth, his position—to name some of the attractors. However, I think people are forgetting what his 2009 line looked like, allow me to remind you: +----+----+-----+----+------+ | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | +----+----+-----+----+------+ | 72 | 6 | 40 | 33 | .267 | +----+----+-----+----+------+ And his 2010 line probably won't look much different from that. Maybe a few more runs (though he is slated to bat ninth), bump the steals total up to 40 and the average to .275 at the highest. At his current Yahoo ADP of 115, I would begrudgingly take him, but people are actually drafting him significantly above that. I've seen him go as high as pick 80 and there is a small chance to get good value in return at that position. Concluding thoughtsThe bottom line is to always look at things objectively and not get swept up when the hype builds around certain players, even if their name is Elvis and you have a clever team name planned if you get them. Posted by Paul Singman at 3:08am Tout Wars Mixed 2010: Team CartySunday morning I traveled to Citi Field to take part in my first Tout Wars draft. I'll be playing in the mixed division against some very tough competition, including LABR rivals Steve Gardner, Perry Van Hook, and Doug Dennis, among 11 others. Here is how my roster turned out: Tout Wars Mixed 2010 — Team CartyC: Mike Napoli - $15 C: J.R. Towles - $1 1B: Russell Branyan - $1 2B: Ian Stewart - $15 3B: Martin Prado - $12 SS: Alcides Escobar - $4 CI: Troy Glaus - $6 MI: Rickie Weeks - $12 OF: Nelson Cruz - $23 OF: Carlos Quentin - $18 OF: Jay Bruce - $16 OF: Julio Borbon - $16 OF: Carlos Beltran - $16 UT: David Ortiz - $12 P: Tim Lincecum - $32 P: Josh Beckett - $17 P: Hiroki Kuroda - $3 P: Justin Duchscherer - $1 P: Colby Lewis - $1 P: Francisco Cordero - $12 P: Jason Frasor - $10 P: Brandon Lyon - $2 P: Takashi Saito - $13 BN: Ryan Sweeney (OF) BN: Mike Adams (RP) BN: Pedro Feliz (3B) BN: J.P. Howell (RP) The elephant in the roomThe one glaring take-away from my roster, which I'm sure I'll receive some criticism for, is Takashi Saito for $13. Obviously setup men don't go for $13, and I ended up spending that much on Saito because I had too much extra money at the end of the draft. The choice was spend my remaining $13 on him or leave $12 on the table. I chose the former because, should he be placed on the 60-day DL, I can claim 13 FAAB dollars instead of just $1. Still, the fact remains that I probably shouldn't have had an extra $12 at the end of the draft. That could have bought me a hitter upgrade, an extra closer, or another solid SP earlier in the draft. Here's why I had that extra money: 1) I usually keep a "petty cash fund" of a few dollars set aside for the end-game so I make sure I can get some of my sleepers. You don't want to tie your hopes to a guy like Colby Lewis rounding out your pitching staff, have him valued at over $10 (I did), and then watch him go to someone else for $3 or $4 because you're missing that extra dollar you need to get him. In the CardRunners expert league, for example, this "petty cash" was the difference in my getting an extra quality OF in Juan Pierre. In Tout Wars, sadly, it meant me spending $13 on Takashi Saito. 2) I had a few late-round targets I wanted that I was saving some money for. As it turned out, I didn't need nearly as much as expected. My last few buys of the draft included Lewis ($1), Duchscherer ($1), Kuroda ($3), Lyon ($2), Branyan ($1), and Escobar ($4). I think all of these guys are extreme bargains, and I didn't expect to get them all so cheaply. I also got Stewart ($15), Bruce ($16), and Weeks ($12) relatively late and cheaper than I expected. Had a spent an extra buck here and an extra buck there on these guys, things wouldn't look nearly as bad, even though the resulting roster would be exactly the same. As I approached the end of the draft, I felt like these were the guys I wanted, so even though the money was split between them awkwardly, I can't complain too much. My strategyAnother thing you may notice about my roster is that I have a lot of injury-prone or injury-risk players. Beltran, Weeks, Glaus, Branyan, Duchscherer, Saito, and maybe Quentin and Ortiz all stand out as such. This was intentional. In an NL-only or AL-only league like LABR or CardRunners, I think it's important to avoid injury risks as best as possible and draft players who will accumulate a lot of ABs and IPs. I probably wouldn't touch Beltran or Weeks or Glaus in an NL-only league, but in a mixed league, things are very different. One of the key points of my 2010 Tout Wars strategy was embracing risk in a reasoned and intelligent way. In an "only" league, replacement level might be a guy like Jamey Carroll or Juan Castro. In a mixed league (even a 15-team one), though, replacement level means guys like Nate Schierholtz and Yuniesky Betancourt. These guys aren't studs by any means, but they will get quite a few ABs. As I wrote about last offseason, while Beltran's contributions alone may not be worth $16 (and, hey, maybe they will be), if you combine his numbers with a guy like Schierholtz or Ryan Sweeney while he's injured, you end up with far more than $16 in value. And if Rickie Weeks decides 2010 is the year he wants to avoid the DL, you're going to get even more than that. Sure, you'll miss a few games here or there in a weekly transaction league if a guy gets injured on a Wednesday or if he gets hit with nagging, day-to-day injuries (I did try to avoid these types—the Chipper Jones and J.D. Drews of the world—and go more for all-or-nothing injury risks), but I believe the overall effect will be positive. Furthermore, to help with flexibility in my eventual waiver wire choices, I grabbed a few multi-position players in Stewart, Prado, and Glaus. I could have gotten a few more, but having guys like this is more icing on the cake than anything else when you consider the ultimate difference between a replacement OF and a replacement CI. A few more thoughtsThis auction, in my opinion, saw hitters go for more than they were worth while pitchers went for less, at least in the early rounds. I didn't really plan on getting two studs like Lincecum and Beckett, but I changed gears a bit when I noticed this trend. I almost snagged a third top-notch starter like a Ricky Nolasco or a Jon Lester in the mid-teens, but I decided that even at those prices, it would force me to go thin on my hitting, especially with the premium being placed on hitters at the time. Despite the early inflation on hitters, I managed to keep my cool well enough and ride out the $42 Chase Utleys and $39 Carl Crawfords. My most expensive hitter ended up being Nelson Cruz at $23, but I feel like my hitting is still very strong, peppered with quite a few quality high-mid-tier options and several breakout candidates. RegretsMy biggest regret is letting Carlos Pena go for $12. I'm not Pena's biggest fan or anything, but that's some serious value for CBS's Eric Mack. At the time I thought I might be running a little low on cash and had just spent an extra dollar on a guy that I sort of regretted spending it on, and immediately after he was sold I was upset I hadn't jumped in. I went too high on Frasor, who was thrown out pretty early on. Guys like Matt Capps and Trevor Hoffman ended up being better buys, if only as a matter of job certainty. Concluding thoughtsEverything considered, I think I have a very good team. I'd be interested to hear any of your thoughts, and please, keep the Saito hate to a minimum  . I realize it looks bad.
Posted by Derek Carty at 2:02am Monday, March 29, 2010Heath Bell trade speculationAndy Behrens said something interesting over at Yahoo! this morning that I thought was worth relaying. The Twins are thought to be active in the trade market, so this unwillingness to name a closer makes perfect sense. If they were to acquire, say, Heath Bell(notes), then it could be viewed as a vote of no-confidence in whichever pitcher had been initially awarded closing duties. Obviously just speculation, but it does make sense. If Bell is traded, that'll destroy all mixed league value for Jon Rauch, Matt Guerrier, and crew. It would also lead to a new NL closer in Mike Adams or Luke Gregerson. I own Adams in Tout Wars, so I'm certainly hoping he's the guy. LABR commish Steve Gardner seems to disagree with me, calling Gregerson the best closer-in-waiting in the National League. Leverage Index also gives Gregerson the advantage, as he checked in at a 1.46 gmLI in 2009 compared to Adams's 1.30 gmLI. Still, it's been said that Adams will handle the 8th inning this year, plus he has the seniority and MLB experience. Watch this situation closely, but I've got my money on Adams for now. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:50pm Saturday, March 27, 2010Follow me in the Tout Wars Mixed League draftTomorrow morning I'll be participating in the Tout Wars Mixed League. For those interested in following along, a live blog will be held here. I'll post thoughts on my roster early next week. Posted by Derek Carty at 10:49pm Friday, March 26, 2010Twisting Oliver: Off-the-radar batters our projections loveCody Ross will be a top-50 offensive player. Rajai Davis will steal more bases than all but two players. Dan Uggla will be one of 15 players to drive in 100 runs. Nelson Cruz will be worthy of a top-40 pick. Alex Rios will re-emerge from his season-long slump. These are just some of the bold predictions THT Forecasts (aka Oliver) makes about offensive performances in the upcoming season. Last week, I shared some techniques for getting at this kind of information. Now, I'll be going a little more in-depth into the kind of numbers we can expect from some players who will likely be undervalued at your fantasy draft. In this column, I'm using a basic formula that gives players one point for every run, RBI, walk and single; two points for doubles and steals; three points for triples; and four points for homers. I also subtracted one point for a caught stealing and another half-point for every strikeout. One thing to keep in mind during all of this: Don't get caught up in the actual numbers. Oliver tends to be a little more pessimistic (realistic?) than many of the other projections out there (ESPN has 34 players batting at least .300, while Oliver has just 13). It's a fool's errand to compare one player's predicted level of performance in Oliver directly against one from another source. What matters is relative performances, how a player fares in one projection system against others in the same system. (If you really want to get wild, try taking averages from multiple systems and comparing the averages.) I know it's been said many times before, but the key to a successful draft isn't just the ability to find diamonds in the rough or hitting home runs with every early pick. The goal is to avoid blowing early picks and making the most of the late ones. With that in mind, I figured it was worth going through several levels of players from guys being taken in the first five rounds all the way down to guys who are sometimes going undrafted. Top of the draft bargainsCruz: Statistics-minded owners have had their eye on the Rangers outfielder for a while now, but that doesn't necessarily mean all his value has evaporated. In Yahoo leagues, Cruz is still going around No. 67. ESPN has him ranked as the 19th-best outfielder. Oliver wouldn't bat an eye if you took him in the top 40, though. With a projected line of 35 homers, 100 RBIs, 13 stolen bases and 86 runs, there are few players who will produce better across the board. Oliver is a little less excited about his batting average (.263), but that's a small price to pay. Curtis Granderson: I know what you're thinking: "How's a guy projected to go in the 50s supposed to be undervalued?" He produces like a top-20 player, that's how. Yahoo drafters have been taking him at No. 56 on average. If Oliver's right, taking him there would be an absolute steal. His 25 homers and 90 RBIs are just the tip of the iceberg. Factoring in his 15 steals and 95 runs, that .264 batting average will be only a slight nuisance. Ben Zobrist: Obviously, the Rays utility infielder is no longer a super-sleeper the way he was last year, when he went undrafted in many leagues. Still, owners seem to be treating his breakout season with a little trepidation, taking him in the early 40s in Yahoo leagues despite being position eligible at 2B, SS and OF, and ESPN ranking him as the seventh-best 2B option. Amazingly, Oliver deems him a good value even at those lofty heights. My ranking system pegs him as the 13th-best offensive player, two spots behind Chase Utley and seven spots ahead of Ian Kinsler (the first- and third-best 2B options). Oliver likes him for 25 homers, 89 RBIs, 13 steals and 93 runs scored, despite predicting a more than 30-point drop in batting average. Safe bets in the middle roundsUggla: Yahoo owners have been taking him in the mid-70s, while ESPN ranks him as the 12th-best 2B. Generally seen as more of a fallback than leading man, Oliver thinks he'll be a premier source of power at his position. Oliver says he'll be the fifth-best 2B overall and could break the top 30 offensive players, while being one of only 16 players to hit 30 homers and one of 15 to drive in 100 runs (and the only 2B to do either of those). Adam Dunn: His measly batting average constantly drives down his draft position, but Oliver definitely thinks his performance in other areas makes him well worth the hit. ESPN rates him as the 14th-best 1B and he's being drafted in the mid-70s at Yahoo. Oliver puts him among the top 25 hitters, well ahead of such first basemen as Kevin Youkilis and Joey Votto. Oliver seems to think he's gotten his strikeouts under control ("just" 159), while maintaining his ability to draw walks (a league-leading 106) and not ruin your batting average (.252). He's also pegged at 36 homers and 100 RBIs. Lance Berkman: Just one year ago, the Astros first baseman was being drafted around the same time as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. Now, he's falling into the mid-90s in Yahoo drafts and ESPN ranks him below the likes of Billy Butler and Kendry Morales. Oliver thinks he'll produce more like the top-10 first baseman to which we've grown accustomed. His projected 24 homers and 87 RBIs don't necessarily jump off the page, but if your league looks at walks (92) or OBP (.387), his numbers start to look a little better. Basically, he's Pablo Sandoval 60 picks later. Finally, some legitimate sleepersRoss: Will the Marlins outfielder be the best offensive center fielder in all of baseball? I have a hard time buying that, but who am I to argue with Oliver? In any case, you won't have to take him nearly that high in order to get plenty of value. He's not even being drafted in the top 200 at Yahoo and ESPN ranks him as the 53rd-best OF. Oliver, meanwhile, projects a line of 29 homers, 97 RBIs and 40 doubles, which, using my points system, makes him the 19th-highest-scoring batter. Even using a standard 5x5 measure I created, {R+RBI+(HRx2)+(SBx2)}xAVG, he's still the 37th-best hitter. Taking a late-round flyer on Ross seems like a no-brainer. Franklin Gutierrez: The Mariners outfielder made a name for himself by registering one of the greatest defensive seasons in history. Unless you play in a particularly odd fantasy league, though, this is of no value. So, it's understandable that he's out of the top 200 picks in Yahoo leagues and ranked as the 47th-best OF by ESPN. Oliver likes him as the 78th-best hitter using my points system and at 72 with that 5x5 calculation. His production in any one area won't win categories, but a projected line of 20 HRs, 78 RBIs, 14 SBs and 79 runs is pretty much on par with the projections of Bobby Abreu and Raul Ibanez. Rajai Davis: Owners who were paying attention last year unquestionably remember his second-half performance in which he stole 30 bases, hit .325 and scored 46 runs. Apparently, not many of those people have much faith that it was a sign that he had finally figured it all out as he's being drafted toward the very end of most Yahoo drafts and is the 48th-ranked OF at ESPN. Oliver scoffs at those numbers and projects robust enough stats to place him at No. 81 among batters in my points system and all the way up to No. 49 in my 5x5 ranking. Oliver suggests 46 steals (behind only Jacoby Ellsbury and Michael Bourn), a .277 batting average and 80 runs, or across-the-board production on par with B.J. Upton. Rios: If there's one player who was a bigger disappointment than the White Sox outfielder last season, I can't think of him. Once considered a possible keeper in many leagues, he's now being drafted in the 160s at Yahoo and is the 35th-ranked OF at ESPN. Granted, those aren't bargain-basement numbers. Still, if Oliver's right, he's a good gamble. In both my ranking systems, he's among the top 60 batters with a line of 15 homers, 75 RBIs, 21 steals and 82 runs or the rough equivalent of Shane Victorino about 70 picks later. Other stray observations
Posted by Jeremiah Oshan at 4:10am Waiver Wire Offseason: NLAndre Ethier | Los Angeles | OF 2009 Final Stats: .272/.361/.508 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .284/.360/.494 Except for his miserable May, Ethier built on his .335/.409/.583 second half of 2008 to show that he's finally arrived. For the first time in his career, he broke the 30-HR (the first Dodger to do so since Adrian Beltre's 48 longballs in 2004) and 100-RBI barriers, playing in all but two games for the Dodgers. The mysterious May slump likely came from his 26 H% and the split toenail that limited him for the last week of the month. But he came back with a vengeance in June, putting together a nine-game hitting streak that included four homers in three games, bringing his OPS up 100 points. That kind of clumping was typical of Ethier, who hit more than a third of his 31 HR in six multi-homer games. Shockingly, all of those multi-dinger games came at home, where he hit 22 HRs. That's surprising for Dodger Stadium, one of the stingiest HR parks in the league (only Busch surrendered fewer HR/G in 2009), but a good sign for Ethier owners going forward—he has a .915 OPS at home. One stat that wasn't shocking in 2009 was Ethier's platoon splits. His career OPS is 203 points higher against RHP than LHP, and that gap widened to 331 points in 2009. While that makes his overall line that much more impressive, it's a worrying trend, following four straight years of declining OPS against southpaws. It's too soon to call for a platoon, but Ethier could be headed that way if he keeps this up. Another trend to note is that Ethier started hitting more fly balls last year, with a career-high 41.5% in that department. His HR rate seems to be settling into the 14-15% range, so he's a good shot to keep his power up if this continues, though more fly balls would also depress his BA. Since this came after three straight seasons of declining FB%, it's a good question as to whether this is a permanent shift or not. THTF predicts a reversal in this trend, boosting his BA at the expense of his SLG, and sees him falling back to HR levels in the mid-20s (he's predicted for 23). That puts them right in line with other projection systems, which only differ by giving him a slightly higher SLG. Consistent contact rates in the low 80s mean that he's a solid BA bet, especially with four straight seasons of rising walk rates. Those platoon splits are worrisome, but Ethier's still going to deliver very good value for you. He's not a top-flight OF in mixed leagues but gets close in NL-only leagues, and should be someone you can safely bet on for another OPS in the high 800s, even throwing in a few SBs to boot. Rafael Soriano | Tampa Bay | RP 2009 Final Stats: 12.1 K/9, 3.8 K/BB, 2.97 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 9.8 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.51 ERA Soriano is the ultimate risk-reward guy at the back end of a bullpen. When he's healthy, he throws a tidy fastball-slider combo that helps him rack up the Ks. But when he's not healthy, the loss can be catastrophic—he's missed nearly all of two different seasons in the past five years, and 2009 was only the second time he's broken the 70-IP mark, setting a career high with 75.2 IP. Last year, Atlanta had Mike Gonzalez as insurance—they were nominally co-closers to start the season, but the sharing project quickly fell away as Soriano asserted himself, and Gonzalez only recorded one save after July 1. With Tampa Bay, there's J.P. Howell and Grant Balfour to step in if Soriano goes down, so they're well-protected, and Soriano's fantasy owners should be, too. If he remains healthy, however, Soriano will deliver you some excellent numbers. Since his rookie year, he's only once failed to register at least a strikeout per inning when pitching more than five innings, and that was his 8.8 K/9 in 2007, which is darn close to that magical mark. Soriano's BB/9 have been equally good in his career, typically around 3 BB/9 (2008's injury-shortened 14-IP 5.8 BB/9 is a clear outlier). He's relied less and less on off-speed stuff in recent years, but that's typical for an endgame power pitcher. And while his fastball has improved a bit in effectiveness, slipping from 1.06 to 1.42 wFB/C since 2006, his slider has declined a bit, going from 1.82 to 1.39 wSL/C in that same period. Those aren't slides to worry about unless they continue, and show that he's still got the same stuff as before his 2008 elbow problems. Moving back to the AL shouldn't hurt Soriano, since that's where he began his career, and he moves to a team with one of the best defenses in baseball. Tampa Bay ranked second in UZR/150 in 2009, while placing fourth in Defensive Efficiency and third in Total Fielding Runs Above Average. Soriano's more of a flyball pitcher, averaging 0.62 GB/FB in his career, but having guys like Carl Crawford and B.J. Upton chasing down those flies will make him even better. Don't take him without an insurance policy, and don't overspend for those saves, but Soriano is a very good gamble if you're the guy who likes good payoffs, as he should help you in multiple categories. His health history will scare off other owners, depressing his value, but he could make a great second or third closer for you, especially if you can get Balfour and a healthy J.P. Howell as a handcuff. Brandon Phillips | Cincinnati | 2B 2009 Final Stats: .276/.329/.447 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .264/.313/.424 Even a bum wrist didn't keep Brandon Phillips down in 2009, as he put up a year almost identical to 2008, despite the fact that he'd been dropped into the cleanup spot. Phillips initially said the wrist had a hairline fracture, frightening some fantasy owners into dropping him (like an owner in one of my leagues), but the Reds said that it was just a deep bone bruise. Whatever it was, it happened when he was hit by a pitch on Aug. 15, and Phillips hit .301/.341/.438 from that point until the end of the season, so it couldn't have been much. That line could have had more to do with luck than a healthy wrist, as he enjoyed a 36% hit rate over that span, as compared to the 30% he enjoyed the rest of the season. Overall, however, Phillips didn't enjoy too much luck, since his HR/FB rate dipped a few points from 2008. That might seem like he could pick up some SLG in 2009, but his FB rates have been slowly slipping over the past three years, so that could cancel out any return to statistical HR/FB norms. Two other complementary trends show why his THTF projection sees a correction coming. His walk rates have generally improved a bit since 2006, rising from 6.0% to 6.8%, while his strikeout rate plunged from a three-year average around 16% to 12.8% in 2009. A sudden leap forward like this is unusual in a player with his experience, and he could give those gains back in 2010. Phillips is too young to fall off the table suddenly in any direction, however, and only THTF doesn't see him joining the 20-20 club again (THTF projects 18 HRs, though his 21 SBs are in line with other systems). He's an odd placement in the cleanup spot, with his modest SLG, but that's where Dusty Baker will probably place him in 2010, too. He still swiped more than 20 bags despite that unfavorable positioning, so there's no reason to think he can't do it again. If Dusty does see the light and puts Jay Bruce, for example, who has more raw power, there instead, that could shift Phillips' HR/SB mix even further in favor of speed. Either way, however, Phillips will continue to provide a very good power-speed blend that's valuable for a MIF. His walk rates and modest contact skills will keep him from being a great BA boost, but he shouldn't hurt you there, either. The persistence he showed in playing through his wrist problems last season show how gritty he is, and so long as he remains healthy, he'll remain a top-notch 2B option in mixed or NL-only leagues. Ubaldo Jimenez | Colorado | SP 2009 Final Stats: 8.2 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 3.47 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.2 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 3.64 ERA You've got to like a young pitcher with a 95+ mph fastball, even if Coors Field is his home. You like him even more, however, when that guy pitches better there, as Jimenez did in 2009—his ERA and WHIP were both better at home than away, even if his control was slightly poorer there (2.2 K/BB vs. 2.5 K/BB away from Coors). His BABIP was also a touch worse at home, but when it's .285 vs. .288 it didn't make much of a difference, and shouldn't change much going forward. Overall, Jimenez solidified his skills in quite a few areas in 2009, with results that reflected that growth, and not mere luck. For starters, his 73% strand rate was solid, but his peripheral ratios showed improvement, too. His strikeout rate improved from 2008's 7.8, but his biggest step forward came in his control, as he went from a 4.7 to 3.5 BB/9. That's the most important area of improvement for a young power pitcher, and Jimenez barely got into acceptable walk rate range with that 2009 performance. As a power pitcher in Colorado, his flyball rate might be an area of concern, but Jimenez has shown growth there, too, over the last three seasons, dropping from 37% to 28% since 2007. Combine that with his slightly below-average HR rates in the past two years, and you'll see that even a correction from 2009's 7.8% HR/FB back to league norms isn't much to worry about. Jimenez has also broadened his repertoire, using his slider more, and using it more effectively. Since coming to the Rockies, he's increased his usage of it from 10.2% to 17.8%, while it's gone from 0.99 to 2.39 wSL/C. His heater, too, has gotten better, from a -4.7 to 11.4 wFB/C in the past three seasons. He was touted for having four pitches, and his changeup remains strong, but his curve still needs work, as it's been inconsistent. Jimenez has compensated by throwing the curve a bit less, possibly because Colorado's thin air doesn't allow it to break like it should. THTF sees some slippage in Jimenez's production in 2010, largely due to a regression in his walk rate to 4.2 BB/9. Even if that happens, those numbers remain solid, and unless he suddenly reverses those groundball gains, he's a very strong SP option for 2010. He's still a young power pitcher, and bumps are possible, but it's hard to match his strikeout potential. Keeper leagues have surely snapped him up already, but he's a very good SP option for redraft leagues of all kinds. Michael Bourn | Houston | OF 2009 Final Stats: .285/.354/.384 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .254/.319/.338 Bourn is one of those one-dimensional fantasy anomalies, where owners tolerate his punchless offense because he can seal up the SB category for you singlehandedly. In leagues that don't count steals, on the other hand, he can bring some value from the runs he scores, but he's a marginal talent otherwise. In 2009, though, he also brought BA and enough SLG to make him tolerable in non-SB leagues, and those 97 times he crossed home plate were nothing to sniff at, either. Since he's a young player, it's difficult to know if Bourn is establishing tendencies or breaking them with his 2009 performance. He had a 19% strikeout rate in the minors, which ballooned to 23% over the past two seasons. His 13% walk rate in the minors sunk to 9% in 2009, though that was better than the 7% he put up in 2008. He pounced on fastballs in 2009, devouring them at a 1.35 wFB/C rate, but couldn't figure out sliders (-2.32 wSL/C) and went from awful against changeups (-4.03 wCH/C) in 2008 to merely bad (-1.29) in 2009. And his hit rate jumped from 30% to 37% between 2008 and 2009. Which way is he going? Hard to know for sure, but THTF sees him giving some of those gains back, not really surprising with a young player like this. It's lower than other projection systems, but the best of those still peg him as declining from his 2009 season. Unless they improve, Bourn's strikeout rates are still too high for a stable batting average, while his walk rates are barely in good territory. But if pitchers figure out his weakness to offspeed and breaking stuff, his ratios may not matter. The good news for fantasy owners is that his speed will remain consistent—as long as he gets on base. His groundball hitting style (57.8 GB% in 2009) and footspeed should help him reach base, even if his other trends push his hitting downward. There's no stopping the steals, even if THTF sees him getting 50 swipes, and nobody sees him repeating a 60+ season. A final concern is his health in spring training, as he's missed more than a week with an oblique strain, and should return today. Both Bourn and the Astros insist that he's fine, but oblique injuries have a way of lingering, and could sap his power and BA further. This isn't enough to drop him off of draft charts, but it could slide him a few spots, and certainly bears watching. Regardless, Bourn remains someone who will be drafted high in standard roto leagues and ignored in others, and if you draft him for your team, he's going to be a two-dimensional contributor, neither helping nor hurting your BA while not contributing at all, or even hurting you, in power. If he could bring more than that, he'd be a much higher pick. As it is, however, you shouldn't be seduced by those tasty SBs enough to overpay for or overdraft him. I'm never a fan of filling a spot with someone who can just contribute in one category, whether it's a closer with awful peripherals or a hitter who only delivers you steals. Unless you can get Bourn for a reasonable price, look elsewhere for guys to fill out your SB category. Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am Thursday, March 25, 2010Baseball’s top middle infield prospects: 2010 outlooks and future stat projectionsBelow are the game's top 16 middle infield prospects, complete with average- and prime-year projections if sufficient time has been spent at Double-A or beyond. Scott Sizemore / 2B / Detroit 2010 thoughts: Detroit shouldn't have to worry about second base for a while. Sizemore has it locked down. Average-year projection: .274 / .351 / 16 HR / 41 2B / 4 3B / 74 RBI / 85 R / 69 BB / 116 SO / 11 SB / 3 CS Prime-year projection: .285 / .370 / 22 HR / 41 2B / 5 3B / 85 RBI / 94 R / 76 BB / 110 SO / 15 SB / 4 CS Alcides Escobar / SS / Milwaukee 2010 thoughts: J.J. Hardy is out of the way, and Escobar is here to stay. Average-year projection: .284 / .336 / 6 HR / 27 2B / 6 3B / 59 RBI / 89 R / 42 BB / 99 SO / 28 SB / 7 CS Prime-year projection: .296 / .353 / 8 HR / 31 2B / 8 3B / 66 RBI / 98 R / 49 BB / 92 SO / 35 SB / 8 CS Brett Lawrie / 2B/3B/OF / Milwaukee 2010 thoughts: Lawrie should split the year between Double-A Huntsville and Triple-A Nashville. Jiovanni Mier / SS / Houston 2010 thoughts: Expect Mier to remain in Single-A Lexington for the year, but an eventual trip to Advanced-A Lancaster would not be a shock. Carlos Triunfel / 3B/2B/SS / Seattle 2010 thoughts: Triunfel is another youngster who should split 2010 between Double-A and Triple-A. Starlin Castro / SS / Chicago Cubs 2010 thoughts: I'm counting on a full year at Double-A Tennessee from Castro, although I could envision Chicago pushing him, possibly all the way to the majors. Grant Green / SS / Oakland 2010 thoughts: Green should move fast. Expect him to start at Advanced-A Stockton and finish with Triple-A Sacramento. Dustin Ackley / 2B/OF/1B / Seattle 2010 thoughts: Ackley could see three minor league levels, but with the position change I'm counting on just two, culminating in an important Double-A test. Eric Young / 2B/OF / Colorado 2010 thoughts: Young's outlook hinges on Clint Barmes. I expect enough success from Barmes to keep Young at bay, but even then Young should at least get some major league utility time later in the year. Average-year projection: .278 / .348 / 7 HR / 29 2B / 6 3B / 58 RBI / 90 R / 60 BB / 90 SO / 30 SB / 8 CS Prime-year projection: .288 / .370 / 9 HR / 32 2B / 8 3B / 65 RBI / 100 R / 68 BB / 84 SO / 36 SB / 9 CS Jemile Weeks / 2B / Oakland 2010 thoughts: Weeks should spend most of the year at Double-A Midland, but, depending on Adrian Cardenas, he could see Triple-A time by July. Danny Espinosa / SS / Washington 2010 thoughts: There is nothing wrong with Espinosa taking the year to adjust to the challenge of Double-A pitching. Tim Beckham / SS / Tampa Bay 2010 thoughts: Continue to take it slow, Tampa. Beckham needs maturation time. I anticipate that he will spend the entire year at Advanced-A Charlotte. Reid Brignac / SS / Tampa Bay 2010 thoughts: Tampa's middle infield is tight, leaving me to believe that Brignac will once again spend most of the year at Triple-A Durham, experiencing just a taste of the majors here or there. Average-year projection: .270 / .329 / 10 HR / 31 2B / 3 3B / 68 RBI / 72 R / 49 BB / 100 SO / 9 SB / 3 CS Prime-year projection: .281 / .345 / 13 HR / 32 2B / 4 3B / 74 RBI / 79 R / 55 BB / 92 SO / 12 SB / 4 CS Wilmer Flores / 3B/SS / NY Mets 2010 thoughts: Advanced-A St. Lucie should be Flores' home throughout 2010, as one level per year should be New York's motto. Dee Gordon / SS / LA Dodgers 2010 thoughts: Gordon should start the year at Advanced-A Inland Empire, and with success he could hit Double-A Chattanooga by midseason. Miguel Sano / SS/3B / Minnesota 2010 thoughts: 2010 will be a year of cultural adjustment for Sano, and all that I am counting on is some minor success at one of Minnesota's rookie-level affiliates. Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:40am Wednesday, March 24, 2010Last year’s modelsThis morning while in search of inspiration for my column, I began scanning MDC’s ADP list. As I was looking up and down, I stumbled across an interesting segment of the list. Bunched together in the slots from 177–184 lie seven players who are either not long removed from being studs or trendy breakout candidates, along with a solid, reliable, underrated cog, and one of the most popular sleepers among readers of this column. Who are these masked men? 177. Adrian Beltre 178. Scott Kazmir 179. David Price 180. Rickie Weeks 181. Ted Lilly 182. Vernon Wells 184. Corey Hart I found all of these players interesting, and I think it’s fair to say that some of these players, if acquired for their listed price, will turn out to be great picks. Let’s turn to each briefly. Adrian Beltre: Beltre was once perceived by some to be a stud. Some owners reaped the unexpected gift of his 2004 season. Getting that season out of Beltre was probably roughly akin to finding a suitcase full of hundred dollar bills while walking the dog. The following year, Beltre flopped. It was like Raekwon the Chef following Only Built 4 Cuban Linx with Immobilarity, except in reverse because with Beltre we all felt in our heart of hearts that the woefully inferior version was his true self. (Alright, look, I’ve gotten to know you guys for a while and you’re just going to have to accept that I’m going to make hip-hop references. Fantasy columnists make lame references to indie rock, or even classic rock, all the time, and I presume they don’t feel self-conscious about it or feel the need to address their readership about it. The fact that I feel this way about my preferred musical genre is actually grounds for a sociological discussion that’s a lot more interesting than fantasy baseball is, but that’s not why you guys come here, so I’m going to walk away.) Anyway, lots of people like Beltre this year, and I’m one of them. I think he’s a lock to exceed his ADP because he fits the prototype who gets dramatically helped by Fenway. He’s a right-handed pull hitter with above average, but not elite level, power. He’ll also be hitting in a vastly improved line-up. Does anybody think that 28 HR, 95 RBIs, and 10 SB are not totally outside the realm of possibility? By the way, here are Beltre’s 2009 batted balls at Safeco imposed on Fenway Park.  Scott Kazmir: Kazmir is among the game’s most enigmatic phenoms of the past half-decade. He has absolutely dazzling stuff and a fairly modest ability to control it. Kazmir has an uncanny ability to miss bats, strike zones, and starts. He is a classic high-risk/high-reward player. Getting out of the AL East should help, but his health and consistency are always concerns. Still, I like rolling the dice on players like Kazmir. And, according to MDC, he’s slipped as far as 215. If I’m feeling good about the front end of my staff, I’m willing to take a shot on a starting pitcher who has averaged more than a strikeout per inning for his career. David Price: Kazmir’s ex-rotation mate, David Price follows. After Price’s impressive introduction to the world at the end of 2008, many viewed 2009 as a disappointment. But if we ignore the hype and expectations and look at the situation at face value, what we saw was a younger pitcher who made 23 starts to a 102 ERA+, and who dramatically improved his control and moderately upped his K-rate as the season progressed and he began to gain experience. Last year didn’t do anything to make me think Price can’t become the pitcher that many though he could after 2007. Really, what changed was the perceived certainty that such development would happen, and the confidence that it would occur immediately. There’s definitely upside worth considering here. Rickie Weeks: Weeks has enticed fantasy players for a while now. He has clear 20-20 potential, and if he could stay healthy for a whole season and post a decent batting average, he could approximate a down year from Brandon Phillips. It’s rather noteworthy to think that if Weeks performs on the bright side of what can be reasonably expected, and Phillips performs on the bleak side of his, you could have two players of approximately the same production who are currently separated by 140 units of ADP. Weeks looked like he may have been poised for a breakout last season before hurting his wrist and missing the all but the first month and a half of the season. However, it also seems increasingly likely that he’s just not durable enough to be trusted to play anything approaching a full season. Weeks has fallen past pick 200 in many drafts. The bottom line is that at this price, you almost surely win if Weeks stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t hit .230. That’s not a bad proposition, and although he’s not my favorite player among this group, if you could really use a 2B with 20-HR potential late in your draft, Weeks may be your most legitimate option. Ted Lilly: Honestly, I love Ted Lilly. He’s on target for a mid-April return, so missing time shouldn’t be a major concern. Lilly doesn’t necessarily have the upside of the other pitchers discussed here … or so it seems to be presumed. If Lilly hadn’t gotten hurt last year, and had a bit better luck in terms of run support, he would have finished at a top-50 player. Frankly, over the past three seasons, there really hasn’t been all that much separating Lilly and Josh Beckett. The fact that there are more than 100 units of ADP between them is much more a testament to the power of perception than to a stark qualitative difference in production. Perhaps the two biggest points in favor of Beckett are his age and the overall team behind him. I’d take Lilly before either Price or Kazmir. Quietly, his upside is legit, and he’s done it before, fairly consistently. Vernon Wells: I don’t like Vernon Wells, I’ve been burnt by him, and reached the conclusion that he can’t be trusted. But, like all players I can overcome my intuitive aversion to Wells given the right price point. Wells has slipped as far as 220th, according to MDC. As your fourth of fifth outfielder, or a flier bench guy, he’s certainly worth a look. Though, if I’m looking strictly for production and not concerned with position, I’d be tempted to wait even longer and put my eggs in somebody like Paul Konerko’s (ADP 203) basket; they’re both potential batting average risks, but Konerko’s power is more reliable. Corey Hart: Coming in to 2008, Hart was pre-ranked somewhere in the fifties, if I recall correctly. He didn’t step up his power though, and regressed in batting average and plate discipline. Still, Hart went 20/20 with 167 combined runs and RBIs, which is not so bad for a player available at fourth or fifth outfielder prices. Over the past two seasons, Nate McLlouth’s resume isn’t all that different, yet he costs twice what Hart does. Anybody who is interested in McLlouth at 90 would have to love Hart at 160–200, no? It’s hard to place these players in order of my preference, because at this point in the draft you are often filling either positional or categorical needs, so the player best among this group is the player that best complements your team. That said, I’d say that crudely, my favorite players among this group are Beltre, Lilly and Hart. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 6:01am Beating the projection systemsThere is no one way to prepare for a fantasy baseball draft. Some won't prepare very much at all, opting instead to trust the preset order the players appear in their draft room window. Others will ignore numbers and rank by reputation or what they remember reading about certain players. Others will buy a magazine and go purely by it's rankings and in a similar vein others will take what a projection system spews out as gospel and create rankings off those numbers unaltered. Personally, I like to use a projection system as a baseline for what I can expect a player to contribute, but I often find myself manually adjusting this batter's home run total a little up or that pitcher's ERA slightly down. This season what I'm going to do is see how helpful, harmful, or neutral my manual adjustments are by making 10 claims about different players' stats now and seeing how often I was right at the end of the season. The projection system I will challenge is CHONE, simply because it is freely available and is well-respected. If one of the players I make a prediction on misses serious time due to an injury, the prediction will be nullified. All that's left is to make the picks, which I will do over/under style. The claims
1) Adam Lind will hit over his projected 24 home runs. 2) Brett Anderson will have an ERA below his projected 4.04 mark. 3) Michael Bourn will steal more than his projected 37 steals. 4) Brett Gardner will have a higher batting average than his projected 0.266 average. 5) Chone Figgins will steal less than his projected 33 steals. 6) Daric Barton will hit above his projected 0.261 mark (if he holds off Chris Carter long enough) 7) Ben Zobrist will have a higher average than his projected 0.268 one. 8) Chris Carpenter's ERA will be above his projected 3.10 mark. 9) Curtis Granderson will hit more than his 26 projected home runs. 10) Jimmy Rollins will hit above his projected 0.268 average. And those are some of the changes I would make to what CHONE predicts for certain players. Obviously then, based on these claims I move certain players up or down a little in my rankings. By checking back at the end of the season on how my predictions fared, I can get a glimpse into whether I have positively or negatively altered rankings based strictly off of CHONE projections. Also feel free to make any of your own predictions in the comments and we'll check back at the end of the season on those as well. As a final note, here is a link to the article on the Yahoo fantasy sports homepage today offering mine and the other members of the Friends and Family Leagues' thoughts on the draft, as a well a a working link to the full draft results. Posted by Paul Singman at 5:56am Monday, March 22, 2010CardRunners Expert League 2010: Team CartyLast week I participated in the inaugural draft for the CardRunners expert league. I received an e-mail a couple months ago with an invitation and was immediately intrigued. The league is being hosted by the poker instruction website CardRunners.com and will include both poker pros and fantasy baseball experts. Here was the explanation from the original e-mail: The league will consist of half of these gambler and wall street trader types, and half of established fantasy industry baseball experts like yourself. This should create an interesting confrontation between the experienced experts and the sharp newcomers used to beating various games. This sounded like a very novel (and terrific) idea, and I think this should make for some very interesting league dynamics. The fantasy experts participating are (in alphabetical order) Tout Wars vets Jeff Erickson, David Gonos, Peter Kreutzer, Chris Liss, and Joe Sheehan (sharing a team with Erickson). The poker pros are WSOP bracelet winner Eric Kesselman, former world class backgammon player Bill Phipps, and Brian Hastings, who holds the online record for a single night's cash game at $4.1 million, among others. Combined, this side of the league has won tens of millions of dollars playing poker and hundreds of thousands playing fantasy baseball, so they should make for very tough competition. CardRunners Expert League: Team CartyThe league is a 10-team, 5x5 AL-only league with the traditional 23 starting spots and 5 bench spots. The one twist, as far as the auction goes, is that you can use your auction dollars to fill your bench spots. C: John Buck - $5 C: Gerald Laird - $3 1B: Chris Davis - $14 2B: Brian Roberts - $18 3B: Brandon Inge - $6 SS: Yuniesky Betancourt - $1 CI: Russell Branyan - $8 MI: Scott Sizemore - $8 OF: Nelson Cruz - $24 OF: Adam Lind - $23 OF: Juan Pierre - $16 OF: Julio Borbon - $14 OF: David DeJesus - $6 DH: David Ortiz - $11 P: Javier Vazquez - $21 P: Scott Baker - $15 P: Rich Harden - $11 P: Dallas Braden - $3 P: Colby Lewis - $1 P: Joakim Soria - $17 P: Frank Francisco - $11 P: Brandon League - $4 P: J.P. Howell - $3 BN: Travis Snider - $7 BN: Erik Bedard - $5 BN: Mike Wuertz - $2 BN: Matt Thornton - $2 BN: Mark Lowe - $1 Team thoughtsSimply put, I really like my team. It certainly has some risk, but I'm pretty optimistic about it. It took a while for me to start buying players (I was the last team left with all $260), but I think patience paid off. While players were going in the high $30s and low $40s (too high for a 10-team league, in my opinion), I waited and got bargains on a couple of my highest ranked OFs in Cruz and Borbon. When I nominated Borbon at $14, I was expecting at least some bidding. I was plenty happy to hear crickets, though, for a leadoff man who could steal 40 bases. Lind and Roberts came at pretty even value, but I was thrilled to get Ortiz so low. Davis and Branyan should give me monster power, and Pierre should help on the speed side. I like the upside in Snider and Sizemore, although SS is certainly a weakness. My batting average doesn't look so hot, but I hope to be competitive in the other four categories. As for pitching, I should be in terrific shape in terms of saves. I got one top-notch and one good closer for solid prices and lots of top setup men with potential to step into the 9th inning. Howell has the injury-prone Rafael Soriano, Lowe and League have a shaky David Aardsma, and Thornton has trade candidate Bobby Jenks. As far as starting pitching, I got an ace in Javy and a solid Scott Baker followed by some good upside guys. Catcher strategySome of you may have noticed that between LABR NL and this CardRunners league, I bought four $3-$5 catchers (Gregg Zaun and Nick Hundley being the other two).I like this strategy a lot because most of the top tier catchers, in AL and NL-only leagues, tend to go for at or above their true value (e.x. Joe Mauer for $40 and Victor Martinez for $35 in this league). As such, you can decide to buy them and receive even value, but because the position is inherently more risky than other offensive positions, I've felt that it's better for your even value purchases to come at other positions. In LABR, this meant guys like Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche, and Ian Stewart. In CardRunners, it meant guys like Adam Lind, Brian Roberts, and (to some extent) Nelson Cruz. While I haven't run the numbers yet, I believe that these kinds of guys are less likely to get injured than the top catchers are. Of course, because most AL and NL-only leagues start more catchers than their MLB counterparts do (i.e. 20 in CardRunners AL, 14 in MLB AL), some teams will end up with $1 catchers like Brayan Pena or George Kottaras (and sometimes you end up having to pony up more than $1 for these guys). That's obviously not very appealing either. My strategy dictated taking whatever catcher bargains came in the middle rounds in that $2-$5 range. You'll end up with two catchers who will start 100 games and avoid the scrambling that takes place at the end of the draft. For an extra couple bucks, you should receive a lot of marginal value (maybe as much as $10) over the catchers who will only tally 150 or 200 ABs that you'll be stuck with if you wait until you can get a pair of $1 catchers. Concluding thoughtsFeel free to let me know what you think about my team in the comments. And if you're into poker, definitely check out CardRunners.com. Posted by Derek Carty at 3:11am Friday, March 19, 2010Waiver Wire Offseason: AL Draft RecapAt the considerable risk of undermining my credibility, I'll share the results from the Fantasy Pros 911 (.com) Expert Draft, the invite to which was passed along to me by Derek Carty. As I won't be continuing as a writer in this column after Opening Day, any further discussion of the season will take place at Baseball Daily Digest.
It's not an excuse, in the sense that I knew the draft was coming a month ago, but I was only able to take about 60 minutes to prepare, and—despite that—I thought I was in great shape after taking Neftali Feliz, as having $53 remaining put me almost in control of the auction as people had been splurging early. Sure, I was pitching-heavy, but I was set to grab some guys I thought would hit well and be underpriced, such as Daric Barton, Travis Hafner, Carlos Guillen, and Magglio Ordonez. Instead, I made a rookie mistake and got into late-auction bidding wars on a couple players who were replaceable, Scott Downs and Nick Swisher. I was trying to handcuff my Jason Frasor position as best as possible, and I think Swisher will be great this year, but the inflation in the draft at that point meant that I shouldn't have been paying more than 65% for anyone. Here is my draft, with the "Value" column coming from the convenient $ valuator at lastplayerpicked.com, using combined projections:  Having discussed the land mine I stepped on, here are some things I think I did do well: 1. Pitching is budgeted at 30% (approximately) in most drafts, due mostly to the fact that it's amazingly unpredictable. I feel like I invested in three pitchers who are among the least likely to crater: Felix, with that park and defense supporting his amazing skills; Papelbon, with more than his share of easy saves available, due to Boston getting big leads more than most teams; and Lackey, for the run support he'll receive in Boston. 2. Aaron Hill—I've reviewed Hill in this column in the past, and discussed his power/contact combination, and how he's similar to Aramis Ramirez in that regard. The lack of walks may hurt the Blue Jays, but I think the typical projections—which put him around 20 HR—are pessimistic. 3. Asdrubal Cabrera—Usually, I like taking a 2B/SS type early so that I have flexibility, but I already had Hill in this case, so there's no excuse. Except that he hits really well for a shortstop. 4. Brendan Harris—Sure, he's not very good, but he's slated to be the starting third baseman for the Twins. 5. da Aza—Don't ask. I figured that I'd need some $1 guys eventually, and didn't have a nominee queued up. But he's young, and probably has more core ability than Juan Pierre, and is crushing the ball in spring training, so you never know. Anyway, it was a long draft, and it's NCAA Tourney time (except for Georgetown). Here's the league link; happy to field questions: FantasyPros911.com Expert League Rob McQuown is a lifetime Cubs fan, longtime SABR member, and former STATS, Inc. employee. He also writes for Baseball Daily Digest and other sites and can be reached via email (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address); baseball email is always welcome) and followed on Twitter (robmcquown). Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am Waiver Wire Offseason: NLDerrek Lee | Chicago | 1B 2009 Final Stats: .306/.393/.579 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .286/.365/.486 Cubs fans and fantasy owners who were ready to write off Lee after his .291/.361/.462 in 2008 got a rude (or pleasant) awakening with Lee's 2009 production. He had the second-highest HR total in his career and drove in a career-best 111, hitting triple digits in that department for just the second time ever and the first time since 2005. The 149-point OPS rise can be partly explained by a return to health, since he had back and neck problems throughout 2008; this idea is reinforced by the .189/.253/.284 line that Lee put up in the first month of the 2009 season. He could have been just shaking off rust or the lingering effects of those bulging disc issues, or it could just be a 33-year-old starting to feel the spring chill in his bones. Whatever the cause, Lee rebounded from that slow start to hit .325/.415/.627 the rest of the way, to the delight of fantasy owners. Cubs fans might have noticed, if not for the antics of Milton Bradley, the slump of Alfonso Soriano, and Aramis Ramirez's dislocated shoulder. It's an encouraging sign that the Cubs' first baseman has returned to form. Or has he? Really, there's not a ton of luck involved in Lee's 2009 numbers. His .327 BABIP was actually lower than 2008's .330, and consistent with his career .323 average. He saw a spike in HR rate between 2008-09, converting flies to longballs at a 17.9% rate last year as compared to 11.7% in 2008. But since 2008 was a career low and his career average is 17.0%, 2009 was more a return to form than a lucky spike. One significant difference in 2009 was his approach at the plate, as he reversed a four-year trend toward grounders to lift a career-high 45.7% fly balls. Since some of those came at the cost of line drives—his 19.2% was second-worst in his career—it could indicate that he was just getting under the ball more than hitting it square. But a spike in HR and FB rate tends to produce outsize power numbers, which certainly happened to Lee in 2009. If this is an ongoing trend, it should mean he'll continue to produce HRs at a greater rate than before, perhaps necessitating a slide into the cleanup spot (this makes even more sense if Ramirez continues his slide in SLG). It could also hurt his BA, something that's been bolstered in the past three seasons by a contact rate around 80%. His neck and back issues are also further concerns as he ages, since these problems tend to be nagging and can sap the strength of a power hitter. The projections from THTF see this affecting him rather seriously, with a dropoff to 23 HRs and 89 RBIs. I think that's a bit too pessimistic, particularly in SLG, but most systems agree a correction is likely. This will moderate his value heading into 2010, but with good health, he should be back to more productive ways. Don't expect 2005 again—ever—but more seasons where his OPS tickles .900 would be welcome, and would cement him into the middle of second-tier 1B. Johan Santana | New York | SP 2009 Final Stats: 7.9 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 3.13 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 3.1 K/BB, 3.75 ERA The final straw in the Mets' miserable 2009 came when they learned their ace was being shut down for the season due to elbow problems. Though Santana had a decent year, it wasn't up to his usual standards, and was a downer after a bounceback 2008. But his secondary stats looked solid, and showed slight, if any, regression. His strikeout rate slipped by .03 K/9 and his walk rate rose by .06 BB/9, but neither of those are particularly worrisome. His uptick in HR rate, from 0.9 to 1.1 HR/9, on the other hand, seems small, but it points to one troubling trend in Santana's 2009: his hit trajectories. His 0.75 GB/FB was his lowest in six seasons, coming from a career-worst 47.5 FB%. That's why his HR/9 rate rose even though his HR/FB rate dipped a tad from 2008-09; if his 8.5% HR rate in 2009 rises to more expected levels, and his FB rate stays high, his ERA is definitely going to rise. And those strikeout and walk numbers might be of less concern if it weren't for the overall trend in both areas—his walk and strikeout rates have both regressed steadily in the past three seasons, and his WHIP has also risen alongside them, a trend that goes back six seasons. This all may be because he's losing his stuff. Fangraphs' pitch tools show that Santana's fastball has been losing velocity since 2006, though that may have actually led to better movement on it, as he's also become more effective with it. The bigger problem comes from his slider, a pitch that's gone from way above league average (2.26 wSL/C) in 2006 to well below it (-0.88 wSL/C) in 2009. The slider (like any breaking pitch) is tough on the elbow, so cleaning the bone chips out could help the life return to his slider. But whether it's this or age-related regression (Santana's only 30), it's definitely cause for concern. You see that caution reflected in the THTF projections, which are higher than other systems (CHONE likes him even less, while Bill James sees a huge turnaround) but seem reasonable, given the slippage outlined above. Keeper owners have to be gnashing their teeth that he's fallen so far, but there is some reason for hope. The surgery could lead him to the Jamesian turnaround you can find elsewhere, and he's looked healthy and occasionally dominant in the little Spring Training action he's seen. And the Mets, who finished dead last in the NL in UZR/150, should be improved in that department in 2010, helping reduce Santana's BABIP, which rose 9 points from 2008-9. The fact remains, however, that Santana is no longer the top-flight starter he once was. Don't pay for the name on draft day, and keep in mind that others will. He'll bring you strikeouts and his ERA should be at least decent, if not better than THT sees. But this isn't the Twins' Johan Santana by any stretch, and keeper leagues in particularly should take notice of that. Brad Hawpe | Colorado | OF 2009 Final Stats: .285/.384/.519 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .266/.365/.480 Hawpe's final line for 2009 doesn't look too bad, but his fantasy owners know how frustrating last season was for them. Through the first half of the season, Hawpe was producing at an awesome .320/.396/.577 rate, headed for a 30-HR, 100+ RBI season. And then, after the All-Star break hit, Hawpe couldn't—he managed just a .240/.370/.442 line the second half of the season, even finding himself dropped to seventh in the batting order and getting yanked from the lineup down the stretch. Luck can explain a bit of the slide—his BABIP dropped 24 points in the second half—but his impatience took its toll, too. His contact rate was already slipping in June, down to 71% from 83% in May, before his production started to follow suit. In fact, from June onward, his contact rate was an awful 66%, and his walk rate fell from 15% to 12%, too. He's never been a particularly savvy or selective hitter, as his career 0.57 BB/K average shows, but 2009 saw him post his lowest ratio (0.54) since 2005, his first real season in the bigs. The other area of regression was in his hit trajectories, as he hit more ground balls than he had since 2005, never a good sign for a guy with power and marginal speed. He still maintained his normal FB/HR rates, but that was applied over fewer fly balls, hence his lowest AB/HR rate since 2006. His GB/FB rate has been creeping up since 2007, so this could be a taste of things to come. One area that did follow career patterns was his platoon splits. Fellow southpaws have always been his Achilles heel; he averages an OPS 152 points lower against them. In 2008, he narrowed that gap to just 71 points, his best rate since that same 2005 season, a year that doesn't really count, since he was in a platoon. 2008, as it turned out, was also an outlier, as he returned to career norms with a vengeance in 2009, displaying a 180-point OPS differential. That's what got him pulled out of the lineup so often toward the end of the season, and leads many to believe he's headed towards a permanent platoon. If he hasn't figured out lefties in 568 PAs, he's unlikely ever to do so. Rumors surrounding a Hawpe trade have come and gone, and GM Dan O'Dowd has knocked them down, but their very persistence suggests at least a grain of truth. The Rockies have tons of OF talent right now, and holding onto a guy who can only play there effectively 60-70% of the time clearly isn't worth it. Seth Smith is the odd man out in the OF rotation in 2010, but he could easily leap into RF if Hawpe looks like he did in the second half of 2009. Hawpe's in the final year of his deal and, depending on how you feel about these things, it could motivate him to new heights of productivity. But THTF isn't buying it, and neither am I. Though the projection may be a bit low compared to other projection systems, I'd expect a Hawpe closer to the second half of 2010 than the first. If he starts out hot and you own him, I'd look for a trade partner, because the production won't last. He's always been streaky, registering .900+ OPS in April, June and August, while posting OPS in the .780-.860 range in other months. While the validity of monthly splits are subject to debate (I'd add the investment-advertisement caveat here of past performance not indicating future earnings), Hawpe definitely runs hot and cold. If another owner drops him, you can wait for the hot streak to pick him up off the wire, but he shouldn't play full-time on your team, any more than he should in Colorado. Bid accordingly in your draft and, if you already own him, look for a replacement for those inevitable cold spells. Clayton Kershaw | Los Angeles | SP 2009 Final Stats: 9.7 K/9, 2.0 K/BB, 2.79 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 9.6 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.23 ERA At the other end of the age spectrum from Johan Santana is Kershaw, one of the most promising young arms in the game. Not many pitchers end up with a 4.08 FIP in their first year in the majors—at age 20. Kershaw built on that to the 2009 season you see above, when his FIP fell to an awesome 3.08 on the strength of those peripherals. Only missing a few weeks with a bruised shoulder (sustained while shagging flies, proof that even practice can be dangerous in baseball) put a blemish on an otherwise excellent season. Heading into Spring Training, it now seems that Kershaw is the ace of the staff, accorded the honor of starting Opening Day, as it appears the Dodgers will do. Digging underneath that breakout 2009 season, we can see reasons to moderate any overly lofty expectations for him, however. As is often true with young power pitchers, Kershaw had trouble with walks, and his 4.8 BB/9 rose slightly from that 2008 debut. He also benefited from a .274 BABIP and 6.8 HR/FB%, although the latter can probably be explained by Chavez Ravine, where he only gave up one longball in 88.1 IP (Coors Field, on the other hand, saw him surrender 4 in 17.0 IP). His rise in FB% makes this a statistic worth watching, as he went from a 37.6% FB rate in the minors to 41.6% in 2009. He's so young that it's hard to determine tendencies like this, but it is something to keep an eye on. He also got support from an elevated 77.5% strand rate, which makes him vulnerable to a likely ERA correction of half a run to a full run. On the plus side, Kershaw was fairly limited in how much work the Dodgers allowed him to do. They stuck as close as possible to the 100-pitch mark, something he exceeded in quite a few starts, but never by more than 12 pitches. The 171 IP he threw had a lot to do with his bruised shoulder, but they would have undoubtedly kept his innings low regardless. He'll have a bit more latitude in 2010, which could allow him to build those impressive strikeout rates into a total that will help your team even more. And the potential ERA regression is still relatively minor, with THTF's projections in the same 3.30-3.50 ballpark as other systems. Other than the walk rate and the usual setbacks any young pitcher is likely to experience, there are few red flags for this rising young lefty, and little reason to underbid on him come draft day. Remember that he's not going to give you the same numbers he did in 2009, but if he's in the same neighborhood as the THTF numbers, he's going to help your team immensely. Keeper leagues are undoubtedly all over him already (I've owned him for two seasons in one of my keeper leagues) and he's got obvious added value in NL-only leagues. But nearly any owner should have no problem going the extra buck or two to put this young fireballing southpaw on his team. Raul Ibanez | Philadelphia | OF 2009 Final Stats: .272/.347/.552 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .273/.340/.477 In his first year with the Phillies, Ibanez didn't do all that bad. Sure, his batting average dropped more than 20 points, but he hit a career-high 34 home runs and had a .552 SLG, and his 110 RBIs were his second-best total ever. And, oh yeah, he did it all while playing through a sports hernia that required offseason surgery. His stint on the DL for a pulled groin was obviously much more serious than that, and Ibanez showed his character and grit by playing through it. That hernia's the best way to explain the dropoff in production from the first half of the season to the second, when his OPS plummeted 300 points along with his HR production. What's perhaps more impressive is that his season didn't turn out worse. His 23.8 K% and (therefore) his 0.47 BB/K were both his worst since 1998, though both worsened in the second half of the season, after he got hurt. Either because of his early-season success or his late-season tenderness (Fangraphs doesn't split hit trajectories by month or half-season), he hit career highs in FB% and HR/FB rates, which certainly explains that prodigious HR total. He did this at the expense of line drives, however, posting his lowest rate ever and continuing a general downward trend in that department since 2003. Raul is getting old, as we all are: he'll be 38 this season, and his skills have been declining. Alongside that downturn in line drive rate, he's increased how often he swings at pitches outside the zone, despite not showing a corresponding increase in contact rate on those pitches (2008's 71.5% was a clear outlier). This, added to his other trends, indicates that more declines are coming. He's not going to hit like he did in the second half of 2009, when he could only muster a .232/.326/.448 slash line, but THTF sees him closer to that than his overall 2009 line. That could be a little pessimistic (despite his .143 Spring Training average) but some pessimism is warranted in this case. Age-related decline is to be expected, as are other injuries like the hernia, even though Ibanez has been a fairly healthy guy throughout his career—and, as we saw last year, he's perfectly willing to grit his teeth and play through it. Ibanez was never a top-flight OF in fantasy, but he was one of those guys you could count on for a steady clip of BA, HR, and RBI. He's going to be a lot shakier going forward, but he'll still be dependable for good contributions in all those areas, especially with the high-scoring Phillies. He might even have periods like the first half of 2009, though not for an entire season. That makes a very good play in NL-only leagues, a good play in mixed leagues, and a decent investment overall. Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am Thursday, March 18, 2010Baseball’s top corner infield prospects: 2010 outlooks and future stat projectionsRyan Westmoreland underwent successful brain surgery on Tuesday. I wish him and his family the best during this horrific ordeal. This week I'm rolling out 2010 outlooks and future stat projections for the top 15 corner infield prospects in baseball. I was met with an interesting question in my inbox this week, presumably from a Brandon Allen fan, and it fits this week's thoughts perfectly: What separates Lars Anderson at No. 34 on my top 100 list from Brandon Allen at No. 83? It's a question that deserves an answer, as simple as it may be. At this point their projected numbers look similar, but it's the upside of Anderson that has him ranked almost 50 slots higher. Anderson has the tools to put my current prognostication to shame, while Brandon Allen seems locked into his projections. Anderson needs to prove himself fast, however, or he will be right where Allen is by this time next year. Or possibly lower. ------------ Justin Smoak / 1B / Texas 2010 thoughts: Chris Davis and Vladimir Guerrero hold down the first base and designated hitter spots, meaning there is a chance that Smoak spends the entire year in Triple-A Oklahoma City. I say he gets a permanent call-up in August or September, however. Average-year projection: .304 / .397 / 26 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 96 RBI / 85 R / 88 BB / 112 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime-year projection: .324 / .424 / 31 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 110 RBI / 99 R / 96 BB / 103 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS Pedro Alvarez / 3B/1B / Pittsburgh 2010 thoughts: Alvarez should move quickly through Double-A Altoona and Triple-A Indianapolis, meaning a July call-up seems to be the best bet. Logan Morrison / 1B / Florida 2010 Thoughts: Morrison is competing against Gaby Sanchez for the everyday first base job out of spring training. While I expect Florida to send Morrison down to Triple-A for a couple more months, I don't expect much from Sanchez. Expect Morrison in the majors full time in June. Average-year projection: .301 / .394 / 23 HR / 39 2B / 1 3B / 92 RBI / 83 R / 90 BB / 106 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime-year projection: .317 / .410 / 27 HR / 41 2B / 2 3B / 104 RBI / 94 R / 96 BB / 100 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS Mike Moustakas / 3B / Kansas City 2010 thoughts: Moustakas will take the Double-A plunge. Expect the swim to last all of 2010. Chris Carter / 1B / Oakland 2010 thoughts: Carter has Daric Barton and Jack Cust in front of him at the major league level, and Oakland isn't an organization that rushes prospects before they're ready. I expect him to spend the year at Triple-A Sacramento, with perhaps a September call-up. Average-year projection: .268 / .354 / 28 HR / 38 2B / 1 3B / 97 RBI / 81 R / 77 BB / 139 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS Prime-year projection: .278 / .373 / 34 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 111 RBI / 91 R / 85 BB / 132 SO / 5 SB / 3 CS Brett Wallace / 1B/3B / Toronto 2010 thoughts: Wallace should spend most of the year in Triple-A Las Vegas, but Lyle Overbay and Randy Ruiz won't stand in his way. Expect a permanent call-up in August. Average-year projection: .282 / .351 / 22 HR / 33 2B / 1 3B / 88 RBI / 83 R / 64 BB / 121 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Prime-year projection: .291 / .366 / 26 HR / 35 2B / 2 3B / 98 RBI / 91 R / 72 BB / 113 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Lars Anderson / 1B / Boston 2010 thoughts: Expect Anderson to split the season between Double-A and Triple-A. Average-year projection: .270 / .355 / 22 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 87 RBI / 77 R / 76 BB / 135 SO / 2 SB / 2 CS Prime-year projection: .281 / .370 / 27 HR / 38 2B / 2 3B / 98 RBI / 86 R / 83 BB / 125 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Freddie Freeman / 1B / Atlanta 2010 thoughts: Freeman should spend most of the year at Double-A Mississippi, and he seems to be a lock for some Triple-A time, too. He could even get a taste of the majors, but I wouldn't count on anything more than a September call-up. Lonnie Chisenhall / 3B / Cleveland 2010 thoughts: Expect Double-A Akron to be Chisenhall's home for the entire year. Eric Hosmer / 1B / Kansas City 2010 thoughts: Hosmer should start the year back at Advanced-A Wilmington, with his first Double-A test coming around July. Yonder Alonso / 1B / Cincinnati 2010 thoughts: A combination of Double-A and Triple-A time will prepare Alonso well for a September call-up. Brandon Allen / 1B / Arizona 2010 thoughts: Adam LaRoche will be difficult to bump from first base, meaning Allen won't see much of the majors. Perhaps some August/September work will be needed. Average-year projection: .267 / .345 / 21 HR / 29 2B / 1 3B / 79 RBI / 70 R / 66 BB / 122 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS Prime-year projection: .277 / .360 / 25 HR / 32 2B / 2 3B / 87 RBI / 77 R / 72 BB / 115 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS Alex Liddi / 3B / Seattle 2010 thoughts: We'll see what Liddi is really made of as he takes his game to the Double-A level. Expect a full season there. Ike Davis / 1B / NY Mets 2010 thoughts: At an uncertain position, Daniel Murphy seems like he will get the initial shot at first base for the Mets. Davis will be waiting patiently at Triple-A, where he could spend most of the year. Trying to find a middle ground, expect a full-time debut for Davis in August or September. Average-year projection: .270 / .352 / 19 HR / 31 2B / 1 3B / 76 RBI / 69 R / 70 BB / 129 SO / 1 SB / 1 CS Prime-year projection: .279 / .364 / 24 HR / 33 2B / 2 3B / 85 RBI / 76 R / 77 BB / 120 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS James Darnell / 3B / San Diego 2010 thoughts: Darnell should spend a great portion of the year at San Antonio facing off against Double-A pitching. Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:10am Advanced supply and demandAnyone who's had some basic economics, or even just basic cultural exposure to the ideas therein, knows about supply and demand. The gains from bringing it to your fantasy baseball strategy are apparent. The supply of pitchers goes up relative to the demand—well, that means that pitchers' prices (aka their values) go down. Well, perhaps. You must be careful with what it is that is actually being demanded and supplied. As always, if you're not fastidious, economics can take with one hand what it can give with the other. Take the following example that came up as I wrote about my home league: In my league, we have holds as a scoring stat. So middle relievers are valuable and there are fewer starting pitchers that end up on starting rosters. What should holds do to the value of starting pitchers? At first blush the answer is: Holds reduce the demand for starting pitching but don't change the supply, so the price (value) of starters should go down. So, the value of Tim Lincecum in my league, according to this theory, would be lower than his value in standard leagues. This approach is almost certainly wrong. Why? First of all, as noted in the comments to last week's article, it is correct to say that the stats of a replacement starting pitcher go up. With holds, the last undrafted started may be Derek Lowe, rather than Ryan Rowland-Smith. But in the land of the one-eyed, the two-eyed man is king. What you buy in rotisserie leagues (as opposed to, maybe, points leagues) are better stats, not absolute stats. You don't care if you win by one home run or 20. In the same respect, if everyone has better starters, then the only way to get value out of your starting pitching is to have the best. The price for Lincecum should probably stay about the same or perhaps even go up. What the addition of holds does is skew the value distribution: Guys like Rowland-Smith give negative value now, and Lowe gives zero (since he's replacement level), but Lincecum is worth around the same. You can blow your entire starting pitcher budget on fewer pitchers now—so even if the budget is lower (since you have to spend some on setup men), you have fewer pitchers that you need to spend it on. Now there is a slight caveat here: To the extent that you can get stats from different positions, there will be a decrease in the high-end starters' price. If those holds guys really could help you in WHIP or strikeouts, then the value of a high-strikeout starter would be a bit lower. But this is second-order compared to the two-eyed-man effect. However, when it comes to batters, the preeminence of the two-eyed-man effect is not necessarily true. Different positions can heavily cross-contribute—mostly you expect contributions (or hope for them) in most batting stats from most positions. Maybe you hope for a bit more power from your first baseman and more speed from your shortstop. But in general, an increase in demand at one position will affect the price of another position. Again, though, one must be careful. Certain fantasy analysts at behemoth Sports Network have claimed that speed shouldn't be valued this season because you can basically throw a dart and hit a speed demon in the outfield. Let's just assume that there is actually a higher supply of stolen-base threats this year versus past years. Does this mean that you shouldn't try any more for Michael Bourn because there are many marginal speed guys this year? Well, if everyone is getting 20 stolen bases from the center field spot, everything else equal, I want 40 from mine. Sure, 19 is useless to me—that's the skew working—but I still think 40 is pretty valuable; wasting two starting roster spots on two 20-steal guys is not the way I want to go, if possible. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:30am Wednesday, March 17, 2010Save me a sliceEverybody loves pizza. It’s delicious. It’s relatively inexpensive. It’s ubiquitous. And it’s even portable. How many times have you sat there debating what to eat for lunch, weighing far-ranging and even exotic options, only to conclude that you aren’t particularly enamored with any of those options and settle on eating pizza? When I don’t know what to eat, I eat pizza. When, I don’t know what to wear, I rock a grey tee and Air Max 95 neons, and when I don’t know what to listen to, I bump "Illmatic." So, what does this have to do with fantasy baseball and the current draft season? Well, I have a theory that stipulates elite closers are the pizza of picks 50–100 in a fantasy draft. In the mock draft that prompted my “Making a Mockery” column, I sat with the 72nd and 73rd picks in the draft. My corners were fully open and I was in need of power, so I was happy to spend one of those picks on Lance Berkman. As for the second pick, I really wasn’t thrilled with any of the options. I already had two elite starters (my experiment) and a stud middle infield duo. The elite 3Bs were off the board, and I was stuck in a tier of outfielders where there were plentiful similar options remaining. So, I opted for pizza and drafted Joe Nathan. (This was obviously prior to his injury news.) I had no regrets. This wasn’t the only time I’ve experienced this decision-making pattern. As is the case with quarterbacks in fantasy football leagues, experienced managers are often reluctant to draft a closer at a price that reflects his true value, rank-wise. Many who dispense fantasy advice preach that we should wait on closers, I have my own strategy though. I don’t usually like to start the run on elite closers, but if my pick comes in the midst of that run, I’m probably picking the best available closer unless there’s a player remaining from the past round who I had been targeting all along. Some may contend that such a move is not a good one, that it is reactive and not proactive. But I beg to differ, because not getting shut out of the top tier closer market is an important part of my strategy. You might say I’m a fan of the stars and scrubs approach to drafting closers. Mariano Rivera is pizza; what’s not to like about Mo? He posts miniscule rate stats, racks up saves in bunches and strikes out more than a batter per inning. Those who preach waiting on closers may underestimate the value elite closers bring as stabilizers of rate stats. Or, they may underestimate what a Fernando Rodney can do to help wreck them. For the sake of simplicity, I’m going to divide the closer crop into four categories, or tiers. You have elite options, options with either good skills or high upside coupled with job security, options who are fairly reliable in terms of job security but are statistically mediocre, and high risks. The borders of the tiers get a bit squishy, and there are always guys in the second group with the potential to join the first group, just as there are always guys at the back of the third group with the potential to join the last group. Last year, Jonathan Broxton and Heath Bell were in group two, but it was clear to many an astute observer they had strong potential to join group one. My strategy is usually to get one guy from group one; it doesn’t much matter who. Then, I want to get another guy from group two who I think can join group one. This year, perhaps Rafael Soriano. Then, I wait. I’ll dip into the closer pool again before the last few rounds only if it seems clear that one of the options remaining is substantially better than everybody else. Otherwise, I just try to grab group three players and possibly the more attractive risky players after, say, pick 200. At that point it becomes a numbers game, throw some of these players at the wall and see who sticks. You can’t expect 30 saves from mediocre performers or players with only tenuous grasps on the closer role, so sometimes it takes drafting two of these players to safely assume one competent closer. I do try to hold a greater share of the closers than my fair proportion. In a 12-team league, I want at least three. Mathematically, a 12-team league would dictate that if six teams have three closers each, the other six will only have two. This means I’m pretty much in the top half of the pack. If I made wise choices, I’ll be in the top half of the top half, so I’ll be sitting on about nine points. If I find a waiver wire gem, I’m nearly guaranteed the 11 or 12, or I have a spare part to trade and improve elsewhere. Stolen bases and saves are the two easiest categories to dominate from the draft because there’s such a scarcity of players who contribute significantly. The catch, of course, is that many of these players are “specialists,” and so you have to be cognizant of not running up deficiencies in the other categories that prohibit you from competing across the board. But, that’s why elite closers really are valuable—they are not specialists. They are studs on a per inning basis. If you had Heath Bell and Jonathan Broxton last year, in addition to the 78 combined saves, you would have also gotten 13 wins, 223 Ks, a 2.66 ERA, and 1.04 WHIP over 145.2 innings. On a per inning basis, this would have been the best starting pitcher in the league! Broxton and Bell could have been had past pick 100 last year. Wouldn’t you have traded, say, a ninth- and 12th-round pick for a starter with those stats? The moral here is that, as with a speedster devoid of power, you have to consider how a closer’s non-save stats affect your team. It may be helpful to think of your relief corps as a unit. One of my goals when assembling my relief corps is that, independent of wins, I want my relievers’ aggregate stats to represent the best starting pitcher on my staff. Having that one elite closer at the top is the linchpin to achieving that goal. Most owners will reach for a closer at some point in the draft, and this owner is much more comfortable reaching for Mariano Rivera at pick 60 than I would be reaching for Bobby Jenks 50 picks later. At the end of the day, what do you sacrifice by eating pizza? You forego more exotic options that may turn out to be wonderful. To be sure, there will be plenty of players selected at similar points to the top closers who will go on to have amazing seasons, perhaps even cracking the top 25. At the same time, you may be adopting less risk. Mariano Rivera’s only risk is injury; the chance of him stinking up the joint is virtually non-existent. Compare the risk of a player like Mariano Rivera with that of Josh Hamilton or Adam Jones. Pizza is good. Pizza is reliable. And pizza is a staple of a well-balanced, healthy diet—metaphorically speaking, at least. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:02am Yahoo F&F League: Team SingmanYesterday afternoon I drafted for the Yahoo! Friends and Family League, my second year in the league. Last year I finished fourth of 14 teams, so this year I am looking to break into the top three and hopefully take the title. Having received the first overall pick in the draft, I knew that with a solid draft I'd have a good chance of contending. The league is a 14-team mixed league with rotisserie scoring, standard 5X5 categories, waiver additions, and daily updates. In other words, it is probably similar to your own league. My team looked like this after the draft last year, and comparing it to this year's team I feel this year's team is significantly better. And considering that I finished in fourth last year ... well I won't get ahead of myself. Here's the team (the full draft can be found here.)
C: Kurt Suzuki - Round 12 1B: Albert Pujols - 1 2B: Ben Zobrist - 3 SS: Marco Scutaro - 18 3B: Ryan Zimmerman - 2 MI: Placido Polanco - 16 CI: Adam LaRoche - 11 OF: Adam Lind - 4 OF: Shane Victorino - 9 OF: Elijah Dukes - 13 OF: Cody Ross - 17 Util: Chase Headley - 15 Util: Todd Helton - 14 BN: Ryan Sweeney - 24 BN: Casey McGehee - 25 P: Justin Verlander - Round 5 P: Ricky Nolasco - 6 P: Yovani Gallardo - 7 P: Marc Rzepczynski - 21 P: Carlos Marmol - 8 P: Huston Street - 10 P: Phil Hughes - 19 P: Daniel Bard - 20 P: Juan Gutierrez - 22 BN: Gio Gonzalez - 23 Overall my hitting is leaning way toward the power side of the power/speed balance, but my strategy was to load up on power since I feel steals will be much easier to trade for after the draft if I want to quicken my team. I opted against taking some of the more young and unproven middle infielders like Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus, Scott Sizemore and Everth Cabrera and instead waited for the steady veterans. Between McGehee, Scutaro, and Polanco I should get decent production from my MI and SS spots. Ben Zobrist as the first pick in the third round was a bit of a reach, but I like the flexibility he offers and anything close to the numbers he posted last season would be awesome. I went on a pitching run in the middle rounds, landing me with a polarized staff composed of three near-aces and high upside picks like Rzepczynski and Gonzalez that were praised in the draft room. Hughes and Bard are two valuable middle relievers—Hughes with the potential to jump into the rotation and Bard a great closing job if Papelbon gets injured. Those are my thoughts for now; any thoughts you have I am interested to hear in the comments below. Posted by Paul Singman at 4:19am Monday, March 15, 2010Clone Wars: James Shields and Roy OswaltWhile Roy Oswalt has been the ace in Houston for some time James Shields has just taken the role for the Rays. The similarities in their struggles this year are quite striking. We can take this chance to see what these similarities tell about their 2010 season and beyond.  Both pitchers are control specialists with great walk rates. Shields has a career rate of 1.96 and Oswalt is only slightly higher at 2.06. Oswalt was right at his career rate with a BB/9 of 2.08 and Shields was only slightly up at 2.13. So they declined slightly in K/BB, but they were still very good. Oswalt has had better groundball rates in the past and that seems to have played a role in his drop last year. He went from a 50 percent groundball rate the previous season to a 43 percent. That was the biggest reason for his struggles last year as his xFIP went from 3.55 to 3.88. The xFIP shows his 4.12 ERA was also a bit unlucky, but with a career xFIP of 3.58 and a career ERA of 3.23 it's surprising to see him trail his xFIP like this. His LOB% seams to be the main explanation at 72.7 percent this year down from a career rate of 76.2 percent. His struggles of 2009 centered around a slightly lower K/BB, a drop in ground balls and a bit of bad luck. All things we should expect to regress in a new season and be fine. His age is a bit more concerning that things will start to age, but it's better to expect the Oswalt of 2008 over the one we saw last season. Shields, on the other hand, does have some bigger concerns. His makeup was built on elite K/BB numbers due to a very low walk rate. His ground ball rate was never at Oswalt's level and he had to have a good K/BB number to make up for it. So far he has with 5.11 in 2007 and 4.00 in 2008 and while his 3.21 in 2009 was very good, it's not the level he has shown. His pitching approach has changed over the past few years with fewer fastballs, which is his worst pitch with a career run value of -0.66 per 100 pitches. At the same time, he has also dropped his number of change-ups, which is by far his best pitch. Going from 30 percent of his pitches down to 23 percent in 2009. It's unclear why he is making this change, but the pitch has always maintained run values over 1 per 100 thrown. Much like Cole Hamels, he must rely on his change-up and get back to throwing it 30 percent of the time. If he can return to 30 percent of his pitches being change-ups then he can start to regain the form we saw in 2008 and 2009, but if not he will be the solid pitcher of 2009 without ace level stuff. While an older option, Oswalt probably makes the more solid and reliable selection in 2010. He didn't change anything and is dealing with more luck-based changes. His defense is no where as good as Tampa's, but solid enough for fantasy purposes. If Shields returns to his pitching arsenal that was so successful in the two years before 2009 then he could match Oswalt, but that has more to do with what he does and not luck. Posted by Troy Patterson at 4:11am Friday, March 12, 2010Waiver Wire Offseason: AL
Kevin Kouzmanoff | Oakland | 3B 2009 Final Stats: .255/.302/.420 2010 THT Projections:: .266/.311/.447 Using the new handy-dandy tool to visualize batter hit distribution in an alternate park, it doesn't appear that Kevin Kouzmanoff will benefit much from Oakland Coliseum.  Feel free to give the tool a try and see the key for the various colors as well, but suffice it to say that blue is good. The lack of ballpark aid really doesn't come as a big surprise, and he'll further be facing Jason Frasor | Toronto | RP 2009 Final Stats: 8.7 K/9, 3.5 K/BB, 2.50 ERA LIPS ERAs (2006-2009): 4.22, 4.01, 5.44, 3.62 2010 THT Projections: 8.1 K/9, 2.1 K/BB, 3.80 ERA We gave a rosy prediction for him to have a 1-in-3 chance to keep the closer's role after the season, and he kept pitching very well and the Jays upped it to “50-50”, but then brought in Gregg. We are pretty sure that Gregg will get first crack at closing, with Downs and Frasor picking up scraps based on matchups. Tough division, bad team, some good pitchers vying for saves, and it all adds up to Frasor being an unappealing pick at this point, despite the great arm. Scott Podsednik | Kansas City | LF 2009 Final Stats: .304/.349/.412 2010 THT Projections:: .271/.325/.363, 16 SB At the risk of over-editorializing, Scott Podsednik is the sort of player who gives fantasy sports a bad name among any right-thinking Sabermetrician. Even if you think standard valuations undervalue speed (which this author believes, though things have improved in recent years), the outs that “Pods” racks up on the basepaths drive everyone from Ozzie Guillen to Ken Harrellson to John Dewan crazy (we're guessing, since we didn't track Mr. Dewan down and ask him). And he can't hit. And his throwing arm is terrible. And he's not nearly as rangy as his speed would suggest. [steps down off soapbox...] Anyway, the steals projection is low, as Podsednik will likely approach his 30 SB from 2009 again if he manages to hit enough to stay in the lineup, though it's easy to understand why a projection system would assume that his manager would be smart enough to give him the red light more often. We're going to bank on the light staying green, however, and he should be a cheap source of steals. David Dejesus | Kansas City | LF 2009 Final Stats: .281/.347/.434 2010 THT Projections:: .271/.337/.404, 2 SB Dejesus is moving to RF, and the Royals are hoping his back problems are a thing of the past. He attempted 13 steals last year, so expect him to get more than 2 SB this season, even if it means a lot of outs ... see Pods commentary. It also wouldn't be shocking to see him exceed his projection, as his career stat line is .286/.358/.425 and he was playing hurt for most of 2009 and is just entering his age-30 season. Luke Scott | Baltimore | DH/OF/1B 2009 Final Stats: .258/.340/.488 2010 THT Projections:: .248/.330/.458 Scott has big-time power, as can be seen from his ISO and projected ISO. He's popped 48 HR in the past two seasons, playing only about 2/3 of the time. While people will say that spring training stats don't count, Felix Pie's spring training stats have to be considered to count against Luke Scott at this point, as he's a much better defender than Nolan Reimold, who would end up as the primary DH if Pie wins the job. For now, Luke has a hold on another 2/3 of a season (vs. righties), but it's tenuous. Not for the shallow (leagues) or the faint (of heart). Delmon Young | Minnesota | LF 2009 Final Stats: .284/.308/.425 2010 THT Projections:: .289/.323/.421 Delmon Young is being drafted in barely 10% of mock drafts. This is a serious mistake in judgment unless your league uses OBP, and even then it's unlikely to be wise to disregard him.
We won't pretend he's going to be a superstar still; he was always overrated as this author has pointed out since his minor-league days. But he's still a talented hitter whose power should improve as he matures. He's been healthy over the years, and Gomez won't be around to push Span over to LF this year. He posted full-season highs in ISO and FB% in 2009. While he's not a particularly valuable MLB player, fantasy ball is primarily about playing time, and Delmon rates to be useful in fantasy leagues. Not worth more than a very late pick pick, since he's not being drafted in most leagues, but worth rostering. Shaun Marcum 2009 Final Stats: (played in minors – 15.2 IP) LIPS ERAs (2006-2008): 4.97, 4.24, 4.21 2010 THT Projections: 7.1 K/9, 2.5 K/BB, 3.79 ERA Shaun Marcum has been cleared medically, and looks healthy. He's slated—somewhat shockingly—to start opening day and is being taken in only 12.8% of mock drafts. Here's what we wrote on July 17, none of which has really changed: “Marcum is a strike-thrower (99 BB in 310 IP in 07/08) who allows too many home runs to be a truly top-notch starter. Don't expect much ERA help, and the IP should be low as he's coming off an injury, but he could be a nice boost for WHIP in any format and pick up a few wins. “ Quick hits: Carlos Santana | Cleveland | C 2009 Final Stats: .290/.413/.530 2010 THT Projections:: .243/.338/.422 Probably not worth it for 2010, though AL-only 2-catcher leagues would make for enough positional scarcity to consider the upside. Austin Jackson | Detroit | CF 2009 Final Stats: .300/.354/.405 (AAA) 2010 THT Projections:: .254/.308/.366 – 9 SB Austin Jackson gets scouts excited a lot more than Statheads, but few in either camp think he'll be ready to do much in 2010. Detroit is a tough ballpark, and the lineup rates to be weak; look elsewhere. Rob McQuown is a lifetime Cubs fan, longtime SABR member, and former STATS, Inc. employee. He also writes for Baseball Daily Digest and other sites and can be reached via email (.(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address); baseball email is always welcome) and followed on Twitter (robmcquown). Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am Waiver Wire Offseason: NLJeff Clement | Pittsburgh | 1B 2009 Final Stats: .227/.295/.360 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .248/.325/.446 The 2005 draft featured a ton of great talent: Justin Upton was the first overall pick, but other players like Ryan Zimmerman, Ryan Braun, Troy Tulowitzki, Cameron Maybin, Jay Bruce, and Andrew McCutchen all went in the top 15. Some call it the best draft in history. And except for J-Up, everyone on that list went after Jeff Clement, who was picked third overall by the Seattle Mariners. Seen as one of the top offensive catching prospects, Clement busted out a .315/.387/.508 line in his first minor-league season before hitting a .263/.334/.382 bump at Double-A and Triple-A in 2006. He rebounded to a .275/.370/.497 2007 at Triple-A, following it up with a .335/.455/.676 line in 2008. His gaudy power skills (67 HRs and 109 2Bs in 1,761 PAs) were supplemented by a cumulative 11% walk rate that portended good things, especially from the catcher position. But his 21% strikeout rate was cause for concern, something that would come back to bite him later. Seattle also wasn't convinced that his defense was good enough behind the dish, and he was hit by a few nagging injuries. Eventually, Seattle brought Clement to the bigs in 2008, but he could only manage a .227/.295/.360 line, and that strikeout rate ballooned to 31% while his walk rate shrunk to just 6%. But his problems didn't end there—the Mariners inked Kenji Johjima to an extension in 2008, so Clement shifted to DH. Then the Ms brought back Ken Griffey Jr. as Seattle's DH in 2009. So they began to work on Clement as a potential 1B, then traded him late last season to Pittsburgh, who sought to develop his 1B potential. Clement spent more time at Pittsburgh's Triple-A affiliate but hit just .224/.313/.459, with a 28% strikeout rate. That was over 115 PAs, as compared to the .288/.366/.505 he put up in 421 PAs with Triple-A Tacoma, so it's likely that was due to small sample size, as well as the shock of changing teams and leagues. Pittsburgh hasn't given him the 1B job in 2010 just yet, but it's his to win in Spring Training, if he can prove himself worthy on defense and offense. Garrett Jones stands ready to take over if he falters, but the Pirates would much rather have a productive Clement and Jones in the lineup, since his backups are Ryan Church and Brandon Moss. THTF's projections don't look very impressive for a 1B, and include a modest 22 HRs, 36 2Bs and 88 RBIs. In case you think that's a lowball projection, it's about in the middle of the extremes of other projection systems. He's a real gamble for a lot of reasons, not the least of which is the instability of that K%. Pittsburgh would like to see some of that minor-league power come to the fore, as would fantasy owners. Watch him carefully in Spring Training, and if he snags that starting gig, he'll make an adequate CIF in deeper and NL-only leagues. But you'd still be better off taking almost any of the other MLB players who were chosen after him in that awesome 2005 draft. Too bad Seattle (or Pittsburgh) doesn't have that same opportunity. Bud Norris | Houston | SP 2009 Final Stats: 8.7 K/9, 2.2 K/BB, 4.53 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.97 ERA Listed as the No. 2 prospect by Baseball America in 2009, Norris leapt from Double-A in 2008 to Triple-A and the majors in 2009 without missing a beat. At Triple-A Round Rock, he put up 2.62 ERA, striking out 8.4 per 9 IP, while walking 4.0 and giving up 7.8 H over the same span. Though not mind-blowing, that's still good enough for a callup, and he racked up the strikeouts with the 'stros, even as he showed the same problems with walks and hits. Neither the strikeouts nor the walks are surprising, since Norris is a prototypical power pitcher, delivering a fastball that's been clocked at 98, along with a slider and still-developing changeup. Like many youngsters with thunderbolts for right arms, Norris isn't always sure where that heater is going. His minor-league walk rate is 3.7 BB/9, and last year's 4.0 (which he matched in the majors) is a career-high for him. That's concerning, and he reportedly still needs to work on his changeup, though his slider was his worst pitch in 2009 (1.55 wSL/C). Compare that to his nifty -8.8 wFB/C, a nice indicator of his potential dominance. As for his problems giving up hits, he had an elevated .329 BABIP in 2009, undoubtedly due to a team that put up the worst Defensive Efficiency (.677) in the NL. Their cumulative UZR/150 is -0.1, almost dead average, but he clearly doesn't have Hoovers behind him. He was slightly unlucky in home runs, a 12.9% that's sure to drop somewhat, although his 42.7 FB% in MLB is a radical shift from his 31.5% rate in the minors. He must have been leaving some balls up in the zone, which could point to either injury or fatigue. Norris experienced elbow problems in 2008, which kept him from pitching for almost two months and had him on strict pitch limits when he returned, so he he finished the year with just 83.0 IP. In 2009, he threw 120 IP in the minors and 55.2 more in MLB, a total that more than doubled his injury-shortened 2008 season, and well above the career-high 102.2 IP he logged in 2007. Norris is a big, stocky guy, a generous 6 feet and 225, up 30 pounds from last year's numbers, so athleticism doesn't seem to be his strong suit. A sudden jump in IP on top of an elbow injury isn't a recipe for long-term success, and bears watching. The projections from THTF aren't optimistic that he'll be successful this year, particularly in the control department, leading to that bloated ERA. And his WHIP is going to be affected by the walks and the elevated 9.5 hit rate THTF sees, too. I don't agree with the elevated 1.1 HR/9 rate, unless his FB rate continues to climb, so that ERA might be a tad high. In the end, Norris will bring you strikeouts, but you've got to expect the usual young-pitcher struggles with control and hits. Fitting him into the middle of an NL-only rotation or the back end of a mixed-league rotation seems the safest place, if you don't ignore him entirely to see how he starts out the season. Nick Hundley | San Diego | C 2009 Final Stats: .238/.313/.406 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .231/.290/.407 One of the few things that Padres fans have to look forward to is their young core of Kyle Blanks, Adrian Gonzalez (at least for now), Everth Cabrera, Chase Headley, and Nick Hundley. The least significant of the group from a fantasy perspective, Hundley is still very much in San Diego's small-market, low-budget future. His value comes in ways that aren't usually measurable in fantasy, however, which is important to know. Not all real-life prospects are fantasy studs. That's not to say that Hundley is worthless, since any starting catcher is bound to be in play in NL-only and deeper mixed leagues. And Hundley brings value with his power, as evidenced by his 2006 season, when he hit 11 HRs and 32 2Bs at low and high Single-A. He then clobbered 20 HRs and 23 2Bs at Double-A in 2007. He got the call in mid-2008, but disappointed by hitting just 5 HRs and 7 2Bs in 216 PAs, good enough for a weak .359 SLG. In 2009, he was hitting .241/.346/.387 when Chad Billingsley hit him on the wrist on June 9. Hundley was on the DL for a "wrist contusion" for nearly a month before San Diego bothered to X-ray his wrist, and found a small break in his ulna bone. He took another month to get back to action in early August, finishing the season with a .286/.346/.500 September. I'll refrain from commenting on a team that takes a month to figure out their top catcher has a broken wrist, except to say that perhaps the Padres deserve a few of the losses they try to write up to small-market economics. As for Hundley, he's an all-or-nothing guy at the plate, with a career 28.2 K% in the majors (21% in the minors) and a decent 8% walk rate; both will keep his BA low enough to also hold his value down. The longballs, on the other hand, are a very real part of his game. His .168 ISO was good enough for eighth among NL catchers in 2009, and he should bring that same decent power (for a catcher, anyway) in 2010. The problem, however, will be that he's not the Padres' only option behind the plate. They signed Yorvit Torrealba shortly before Spring Training, and the two are likely going to share time in some fashion. Projections from THTF give him 346 PAs in 2010, or a little over half-time. Torrealba has superior BA skills, but not power, despite his late-season burst in Colorado, but he's got experience and could push Hundley for time if he struggles. San Diego would be foolish to allow Torrealba to take over entirely, since Hundley is their future, but he's definitely a threat for PT. In the half-time that THTF forecasts, Hundley's only expected to deliver 11 HRs, and his OPS isn't all that remarkable for a catcher. But he's still a catcher, and it's one of the thinnest positions in fantasy, and Torrealba might revert to more tepid production levels after shifting from one of baseball's best hitting environments to one of its worst. That makes Hundley an outside shot to beat those PT projections, which would drive up his value. Still, consider Hundley as a cheap NL-only option if you can offset his BA drag, but only the deepest of mixed-league owners shouldn't bother looking at him at all. Cole Hamels | Philadelphia | SP 2009 Final Stats: 7.8 K/9, 3.9 K/BB, 4.32 ERA 2010 THTF Projected Stats: 8.0 K/9, 4.0 K/BB, 3.68 ERA Hamels went from 2008 postseason hero to a 2009 zero when he was the losingest pitcher in the rotation—even Joe Blanton had a better record and ERA than the lefty who had been the ace of the staff and the pitcher of the future. Fantasy owners were taking virtual dives off of skyscrapers when Hamels seemed to regress in nearly every area of his game in 2009, including a jump in ERA of over a run. But, as so often happens in these situations, it's a combination of bad luck in 2008 and good luck in 2009 that at least partly explains the apparent dropoff in production. That his FIP was identical between 2008 and 2009 supports that deduction rather nicely. In 2008, Hamels had a .270 BABIP against him and a 76% LOB, while those numbers changed to .325 BABIP and 72.1% LOB in 2009. That huge .55 swing in BABIP corresponds almost exactly to the .46 difference in BAA against him in the two years. The elevated strand rates from 2008 tend to foretell an ERA correction in 2009—precisely what happened—while the near-average LOB% in 2009 mean likely ERA stabilization. In other areas, luck broke Hamels' way in 2009, as his HR rate slipped a bit from 11.2% to 10.7%, part of a steady three-year drop in that department. That's a bit less important for Hamels, whose FB rate has been an unwavering 38.7% over the past three years, but it does play a small part in his projection. An area we can't measure by statistics could change this year, too, which you can see on his Fangraphs page. Hamels is reportedly working on his curveball, which has never been considered a plus pitch for him, although his dominance with it has improved from 1.52 wCB/C in 2007 to -1.37 in 2009. And if the offseason throwing program helps him get off to a better start than he did in 2009 (12 ER on 4 HR and 12 Hs in 9.2 IP over his first two starts), that's bound to help him, too. After those first two shaky outings, he had a 3.96 ERA and 1.24 WHIP the rest of the way—not great numbers, but much more palatable, and good enough to put him third on the staff in ERA and WHIP instead of fourth. Some of this optimism is reflected in the THTF forecast for 2010, which sees a season somewhere in between his good-luck 2008 and bad-luck 2009 seasons. His xFIP has been slipping over the past three seasons, an indication that his skills may be eroding a touch, which may be why he's trying to sharpen that curveball. Pitching in Philly is an unforgiving environment, even for a guy with relatively low, stable flyball numbers; Hamels gives up dingers at a 1.26 HR/9 rate at home, and 1.06 HR/9 everywhere else. So don't expect him to push his ERA close to 3.00 again unless he hits another stretch of good luck, but he's still going to deliver those Ks and a solid WHIP. He's never been an elite arm—despite what Philly fans will tell you—but he is a solid second-tier arm who's only been on the DL 50 days in the past 5 years and generally delivers good, if not great, numbers. That kind of dependability has its own value, and Hamels' sub-par, unlucky 2009 makes him an excellent buy in any league for 2010. Mark Reynolds | Arizona | 3B 2009 Final Stats: .260/.349/.543 2010 THTF Projected Stats: .255/.335/.518 Arizona fans could only wring their hands in 2009 as their team found new ways to disappoint, whether it was injuries to Brandon Webb or sending their four-year centerfielder Chris Young down to the minors. But for pleasure, they could watch Mark Reynolds club 44 HRs, even has he set an all-time mark with 223 whiffs (breaking his own 2008 record). In the process, he became baseball's Three True Outcomes leader for 2009, as 51.8% of his PAs ended with a walk, strikeout or home run. While this makes a fun statistical toy for analysts, what it really means is that his BA is continually depressed, like Adam Dunn, Jack Cust, Carlos Pena, and Russell Branyan, the guys who round out 2009's TTO Top Five. The best BA from any of these guys in the past five years? Pena's .282 in 2007, the one BA that's not hovering around (or below) .250. (Reynolds' .279 in 2007 is another outlier, but that was clearly driven by a .378 BABIP and a relatively small 414 PAs). This drives the value of all these TTO guys down in standard roto leagues, though they make very good plays in OBP or OPS leagues. Reynolds' 2009 contains some good and bad trends. Unsurprisingly, his K% hit a 38.6% career high (making for a perfectly awful 61.4% contact rate), after rising from 35.2% in his three-year MLB career. On the bright side, his walk rate has risen over the same span from 8.9% to 11.5%. But the most telling rise is his HR/FB rate, which began at 16.2%, rose to 18.2% last year, then rocketed to an unsustainable 26.0% in 2009. Home run hitters like Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, and Adam Dunn tend to have HR/FB rates in the low 20s, and only Ryan Howard regularly has rates higher than Reynolds' 2009 HR/FB—Howards' are in the 30s, peaking at 39.4% in 2006. Hitters' HR/FB rates tend to regress toward their rolling 3-year average, and Reynolds has only been in the league for three years (counting 2007's three-quarter-time performance), so it's possible his HR/FB is on the rise and he's about to become the next Ryan Howard. That's not impossible, since Reynolds is the only guy on the 2009 Top Ten TTO list who's under 30. What's much more likely, however, is that Reynolds will settle down into the low 20s in HR/FB rates, deflating his HR total (and his roto value) into the high 30s. You can see that rebound in the THTF forecast for 2010, which shows him hitting 38 HRs, 104 RBI, and the slash line you see above. Because of his 2008 performance, other owners in your league might expect another great season. If you're really clever, you'll take advantage of that in your auction draft and bid his value up a bit, particularly at the beginning, when it's safer to do so. Just don't get stuck overvaluing him, because he's a good bet to sink back down to a more reasonable production level. Arizona fans just hope they have other things to focus on when he does. Posted by Michael Street at 1:59am Thursday, March 11, 2010Some notes from my home draftA couple of days ago I completed the snake draft for my shallow, small stakes home league. Its more of a friendly league than a super-competitive one but nevertheless I have a few friends who are not only good at fantasy sports but also highly motivated to take down their expert friend so its not easy by any measure. Instead of boring you with analyzing my roster I thought I'd share a few quick thoughts that I had during or after the draft;
That's all for now. Next week is the draft for the Yahoo Friends & Family league (finished 4th last year) after which I'll share my roster and thoughts on the draft. Posted by Paul Singman at 9:56pm Baseball’s top outfield prospects: 2010 outlooks and future stat projectionsProjecting a player's major league statistics is a tricky proposition. I try my best to find a middle ground between pessimistic and the superstar aspirations that we pin to just about every prospect under the sun at one time or another. Below are the game's top 16 outfield prospects, complete with average- and prime-year projections if sufficient time has been spent at Double-A or beyond. Jason Heyward / Atlanta 2010 thoughts: Matt Diaz and Melky Cabrera won't hold back Heyward if he picks up where he left off in 2009. I'm targeting July for his mammoth debut. Average-year projection: .312 / .415 / 33 HR / 40 2B / 4 3B / 111 RBI / 100 R / 99 BB / 114 SO / 13 SB / 3 CS Prime-year projection: .328 / .439 / 41 HR / 43 2B / 5 3B / 125 RBI / 106 R / 110 BB / 101 SO / 17 SB / 4 CS Desmond Jennings / Tampa Bay 2010 thoughts: Tampa Bay's shaky platoon in right field indicates that, with a strong start, Jennings is in line for a full-time MLB gig by June. Average-year projection: .289 / .369 / 14 HR / 39 2B / 9 3B / 69 RBI / 102 R / 74 BB / 98 SO / 35 SB / 8 CS Prime-year projection: .301 / .388 / 19 HR / 42 2B / 11 3B / 79 RBI / 114 R / 83 BB / 88 SO / 42 SB / 8 CS Donavan Tate / San Diego 2010 thoughts: Just because he's a teenager doesn't mean San Diego won't push Tate. He can handle it. Count on him to spend most of the year in Single-A Fort Wayne, followed by a graduation to Advanced-A Lake Elsinore by August. Mike Stanton / Florida 2010 thoughts: Unlike most, I am not a huge believer in Stanton yet. Expect his assault up the minor league ladder to halt in 2010 in order for him to adjust to the radical shift in pitching talent that he will face at Double-A Jacksonville. Michael Saunders / Seattle 2010 thoughts: Seattle's outfield is crowded, but, as a believer in Saunders, I expect him to give Seattle no choice but to find room for him by July. Average-year projection: .282 / .349 / 22 HR / 37 2B / 4 3B / 85 RBI / 84 R / 60 BB / 119 SO / 12 SB / 4 CS Prime-year projection: .295 / .372 / 27 HR / 38 2B / 5 3B / 94 RBI / 91 R / 67 BB / 111 SO / 16 SB / 5 CS Jaff Decker / San Diego 2010 thoughts: With his major league approach at the plate, expect Decker to move faster than expected. He could hit Double-A by July. Ryan Westmoreland / Boston 2010 thoughts: While many see a budding star in Westmoreland and want to see results as soon as possible, I believe Boston will play it slow and keep him in Single-A Greenville for the season. Aaron Hicks / Minnesota 2010 thoughts: Anticipate that Minnesota will be happy to leave Hicks in Advanced-A Fort Myers for the season; unless of course he tears the cover off the ball, but I'm expecting less progress than most. Fernando Martinez / NY Mets 2010 thoughts: Martinez faces an uphill battle in trying to force his way into New York's lineup. At this point it will take an injury. I honestly have to expect Martinez to stay in Triple-A for a majority of the season. Average-year projection: .286 / .342 / 16 HR / 37 2B / 3 3B / 73 RBI / 80 R / 49 BB / 108 SO / 7 SB / 2 CS Prime-year projection: .301 / .363 / 23 HR / 40 2B / 5 3B / 83 RBI / 85 R / 59 BB / 97 SO / 10 SB / 3 CS Michael Taylor / Oakland 2010 thoughts: Oakland has a weak outfield, meaning that a quick start could catapult Taylor to the majors. Playing it conservatively, anticipate a full-time call-up in July. Average-year projection: .272 / .344 / 19 HR / 39 2B / 2 3B / 76 RBI / 74 R / 64 BB / 113 SO / 5 SB / 2 CS Prime-year projection: .284 / .365 / 25 HR / 41 2B / 3 3B / 85 RBI / 80 R / 72 BB / 106 SO / 7 SB / 3 CS Domonic Brown / OF / Philadelphia 2010 thoughts: Brown should split his season between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Caleb Gindl / Milwaukee 2010 thoughts: Gindl is making the big move to Double-A, and I expect him to spend all of 2010 there. Andrew Lambo / Los Angeles Dodgers 2010 thoughts: Lambo will have to prove that he can bounce back at Double-A Chattanooga before he gets his crack at Triple-A, but expect a promotion at some point. Average-year projection: .270 / .326 / 17 HR / 37 2B / 2 3B / 73 RBI / 72 R / 48 BB / 114 SO / 4 SB / 2 CS Prime-year projection: .283 / .351 / 24 HR / 39 2B / 3 3B / 81 RBI / 78 R / 59 BB / 106 SO / 5 SB / 2 CS Ben Revere / Minnesota 2010 thoughts: If he continues to show improvement, Revere could be moved faster than most realize, and Triple-A Rochester could be his eventual destination. Mike Trout / Los Angeles Angels 2010 thoughts: A full year of Single-A competition is a good starting point for Trout. Johermyn Chavez / Seattle 2010 Thoughts: Seattle should take it slow with Chavez and let his tools develop one level per year. Posted by Matt Hagen at 6:50am My draftThis past Sunday, I had the draft in my main league. It is a 12-team mixed league with the usual stats plus holds and BB/K for batters. We are allowed to keep up to four players (but no more than three batters) at a cost of the first several picks (first keeper costs the first-round pick, and so on). This year, my keepers were Kemp, Teixeira and Miguel Cabrera, but I traded Cabrera for Reyes a few weeks ago in an effort to diversify my roster a bit. With first base so deep, I didn't feel as if I needed to gum up both my 1B and CI slots so early. Of course, now Reyes has the thyroid problem—don't get me started. We also get to keep two rookies coming into the season cost-free. I had the eighth pick in the snake draft. 1. Matt Kemp (keeper) 2. Mark Teixeira (keeper) 3. Jose Reyes (keeper) 4. Josh Beckett 5. Chris Carpenter 6. Cole Hamels 7. Adam Dunn 8. Derek Lee 9. Matt Wieters 10. Chipper Jones 11. Julio Borbon 12. Tim Hudson 13. Frank Francisco 14. Jay Bruce 15. Howie Kendrick 16. Matt Capps 17. Dexter Fowler 18. Adrian Beltre 19. Kyle Blanks 20. Jonathan Sanchez 21. Scot Shields 22. Fernando Rodney 23. Manny Corpas 24. Justin Duchscherer Rookie keepers: Neftali Feliz, Michael Brantley This season I decided to target starting pitching more than I had in the past. Since my league has holds in it, one or two pitcher spots usually go to setup guys. With a few closers as well, it is entirely likely that each week I will only start four or five starting pitchers. So the replacement-level starting pitcher is quite high in this league, and the return to building a solid core of three or so good starters is high. Beckett was the fifth pitcher off the board. I had planned on getting only one more good starter in the next couple of rounds, but when the next round came up, Carpenter was by far the best player remaining according to my projections. He's a bit of an injury risk, but with Beckett already in the pocket, I felt fairly safe. Plus, I felt that Hamels would still be there in the next round, which he was, and I wasn't going to let him get away. After that, I felt pretty good about my pitching, but felt I needed some guaranteed power; I knew there was plenty of speed left in the later rounds. So I went with Dunn. Tim Hudson's not gonna hurt me. With those four starters in the fold, I was able to pass on guys like Derek Lowe and Aaron Harang. No more will I suffer when Dusty Baker leaves Harang out to dry in the eighth inning. For the most part, my batters are caricatures. With the exception of Kemp, most of my early-round guys are either-or types—either power or speed. Reyes and Borbon will hopefully give me plenty of speed, while Dunn, Teixeira, Bruce and Lee will hopefully go get 'em in. Blanks and Fowler are my upside guys, passing on the likes of Milton Bradley. Dunn helps in the BB/K category too. What costs did I pay? Well, I got a little squeezed at third and second. Still, if I can get performance out of either Beltre or Jones, I'm in pretty good shape. As it currently stands, one will be my DH while the other mans third. But DH/Util is the easiest spot to replenish, obviously—I can easily slot someone like Blanks or Fowler in if one of my hot corners goes down. Kendrick, well, I'm hoping he's ready for a breakout. But if not, at least I hope he helps with my batting average. I also think, perhaps colored by my Ben Zobrist-athon last year, that second base is a position where one can find breakouts in the bushes. I'm more or less satisfied with Wieters in the ninth. This year's draft was one of the earliest I've ever participated in, and the uncertainty that surrounds relief pitching at this time of year is remarkable. There are enough closers that have question marks—guys like Matt Lindstrom and Brad Lidge—that differences of opinion can vary widely (to say nothing of the situation in Minnesota now). I'm expecting good stuff from Francisco—he's got the skills for it. If not, I have Feliz as a sort of backup. Shields and Rodney are my hopes for holds—mainly I'm playing on Mike Scioscia's propensity to use setup guys; not all managers do. Likewise for Corpas, though if Street re-injures himself, I should be in a good position to get some vulture saves. As always, even right after the draft, I find myself playing the what-if game. I forgot about Francisco Liriano and could've had him relatively late, etc. ... I actually have two more picks left in the reserve draft (which we're doing by e-mail). So feel free to post some suggestions (alas you don't know who's gone yet). I would love to post who I'm thinking about taking, but that could obviously backfire! Posted by Jonathan Halket at 6:40am Wednesday, March 10, 2010Petty thievesWe all know that it is best to build a statistically balanced roster and avoid depending on two-category players to compensate for deficiencies. But, the best-laid plans can go awry. Of all the standard offensive categories, stolen bases is the one for which owners most commonly seek a specialist’s help. So, I thought it would be helpful to mention a few players who might be helpful in the speed department who are not getting much ADP love. A quick point before delving in to some players—even if you’ve built a balanced team, there are some other possible reasons why you may want to invest in cheap speed later in the draft. Unlike a team’s power supply, which is largely spread out among several players, a team’s speed quotient is often wrapped up in a few players, even when the team is balanced. Having a host of 15-steal players helps balance risk, but usually there are one or two players whose speed your team can only hope to tread water without. Cheap speed guys can be thought of as insurance policies to those players. They also make great throw-ins in trades. Also, as we just established, even within a balanced roster, you often need one or two big basestealing threats, and the prices for the top guys can be steep. Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, and a healthy Jose Reyes bring more to table than just speed. But, it is totally reasonable to feel very hesitant to invest a top 100 pick in a player like Michael Bourn. So, it’s also feasible to strategically look to the late rounds to acquire your speed. A final tangent and shameless plug, for those of you who just aren’t in enough fantasy leagues already, you can support us at the THT simply by playing fantasy baseball. You may have noticed the link to CBSSportline.com’s fantasy baseball site in the left hand column of our homepage. By joining a league through that link, you can help keep our virtual lights on and irritate your wife at the same time. Now, let’s take a look at a few players who project to be assets but are currently sitting outside the top 150 in ADP. Julio Borbon (159) Borbon has been a given a lot of attention as a sleeper this preseason, so I won’t waste too much ink on him. Amidst the hype, it’s important to remember that Borbon is not a sure thing—though he sure looks the part. He didn’t really have to hit lefties at all last year and he did not steal bases at the clip he did last year when he was in the high minors. Also, Borbon never hit more than seven homers in a minor league season, so the fact that his 2009 MLB numbers would have projected 12-15 homer power should be taken with a grain of salt. Rajai Davis (160) Davis ran wild on the scene last season, swiping 41 bases in 125 games for the normally reluctant to run Athletics. Davis has an extensive minor league history of stealing 40+ bases and his basestealing skills were given a preseason endorsement by Rickey Henderson. Secure in his starting job, I don’t see any reason why Davis can’t build on last season; he may actually be a batting average asset as well. If somebody offered me two-to-one odds on Davis stealing more bases than Bourn this season, I think I’d take the bet. Juan Pierre (199) Jay-Z rapped that he “ran base like Juan Pierre.” In the remix version filmed as a public service announcement to keep kids off drugs, Jadakiss fired back with “Kids, please stay off base like Juan Pierre.” OK, so I made that second part up. Anyway, one of the tried and true sabermetric whipping boys will be manning the outfield and leading off for Ozzie Guillen’s White Sox. We know that Ozzie values looking like you are trying hard above things like getting on base or having a stronger throwing arm than Kathy Griffin (sorry, that’s the face that happened to be on the television when I looked over to fill in this blank). So, Pierre should enjoy a full season as a crappy leadoff hitter who will prove a nice source of steals, runs, and a hollow, but weighty .300-ish batting average. Oh, and by the way, if you’re longing for more nonsense and to indulge in schadenfreude at the expense of others’ woeful grammar and misspelling, hit Senor Guillen up on the Twitter. Carlos Gomez (227) At the outset of Gomez’s major league career with the Mets, his claim to fame was that he was allegedly faster than Jose Reyes. Well, that may or may not be true, but with a career .292 on-base percentage, it hardly matters either way. Gomez has the potential to be a nice source of steals and runs if he can stick atop the batting order in Milwaukee. As somebody keeping Ryan Braun in my main league (hold on while I go look at his stat page again and drool—OK, I’m back), I sincerely hope Rickie Weeks or somebody with better on-base skills is given the privilege of trotting around the bases as Braun and Prince Fielder launch moon shots and ringing doubles in the gaps. Like the Willy Taverases before him, Gomez’s fantasy utility will be inversely correlated with the baseball IQ of his real-life manager. Everth Cabrera (229) Cabrera is locked in as the Padres starting shortstop and, from what I can glean, the organization seems to really like him. Cabrera made pretty quick work of the minors; in 2007, in A-ball, Cabrera swiped a whopping 73 bases in 121 games. Last season, at the big league level, he nabbed 25 in 103 games. He hasn’t shown any power and did not hit for a high average last season, but he does have plenty of natural speed and the Padres should be itching to run with their lack of power and cavernous home stadium. Cabrera could easily steal 35 bases next year, which makes him worth a look at your MI slot if your team is short on speed. Dexter Fowler (278) I’m not really sure what to make of Fowler. Throughout the minors, he ran more frequently at some points than others and he’s never been a high percentage basestealer. Colorado doesn’t seem to be too concerned with that; see Tulowitzki, Troy. I spot started Fowler a bit last year, and it seems that he runs in spurts. I can’t wholeheartedly recommend him, but he does have something of a wild-card dynamic to his game. He also seems to have gap power at least and at 24, it’s possible he develops a bit more. He’s got to improve from the left side though if he wants to be a true asset to his team and the fantasy community, and avoid the threat of being platooned. Drew Stubbs (311) Stubbs is an interesting option late in deeper drafts at least. Throughout the minors, he’s not been a great hitter for average, but he has shown legitimate on-base skills. He did not flash any power to speak of though. In his cameo appearance at the MLB level last year, he showed mediocre on base abilities and flashed previously non-existent power. Eight homers and six extra-base hits spells flash in the pan though, and Stubbs should be expected, like most others in this column, to be a liability in the power department. However, Stubbs has shown not just speed, but basestealing acumen throughout the minors, posting considerable steals total at impressive success rates in the higher minors. Stubbs could be a cheap source of 25 steals. Eric Young Jr. (388) E-Y Jr. has the potential to be a terror on the base paths. Over more than 500 minor league games, he’s averaged over half a steal per. In A-ball in 2006, he attempted 118 steals in 128 games, pocketing 87. He’s also shown decent on-base and contact skills. Coming into the exhibition season, the consensus among the Colorado brass was that Young was unlikely to make the Rockies Opening Day roster. But keep your eyes open; a hot spring or a key injury could catapult Young into the lineup. Were such an event to happen, Young would immediately join the ranks of the game’s most formidable basestealing threats. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:03am Tuesday, March 09, 2010Amazin’ Avenue AnnualFor those who haven't seen it yet, the guys over at Amazin' Avenue (a New York Mets blog) put out their free Amazin' Avenue Annual on Friday. I have an article in it (completely non-fantasy related), as do fellow THTers Dave Studeman, Harry Pavlidis, and Brian Borawski. I had a great time reading it and was happy to participate, so check it out if you're interested. Even if you're not a Mets fan, there are a few articles that make for a good read universally (like Eric Simon's On Baseball, Numbers, and Randomness). Posted by Derek Carty at 3:42pm LABR NL 2010: Team CartyThis past weekend I traveled to Phoenix, Arizona to defend my title in USA Today's League of Alternate Baseball Reality (LABR) NL. I know at least a few of you have been anxious to see my roster, so here it is. If you have any comments, thoughts, or opinions, feel free to post them in the comments. Just keep a few things in mind. First, I realize I'm light on starting pitching. I went with the same strategy I did last year, which is loading up on offense and using my six reserve picks on SPs and playing the matchups with them. Second, Elijah Dukes at $20 looks bad out of context (especially once you see what some better OFs went for), but I had a few extra bucks, had altered my strategy mid-draft a couple times, and he was the best player left on the board (and I do like him a lot anyway — I had him valued in the high teens). Ditto Ricky Nolasco. I was in on all the top tier starting pitchers, but they all went a little higher than I wanted. When Nolasco was the last one left, I had to splurge to make my strategy work. That's the risk in waiting. That being said, here's my roster: LABR NL 2010 — Team CartyC: Gregg Zaun - $4 C: Nick Hundley - $3 1B: Prince Fielder - $37 2B: Ian Stewart - $22 3B: Andy LaRoche - $10 SS: Ronny Cedeno - $3 CI: Adam LaRoche - $24 MI: Adam Kennedy - $9 OF: Jay Bruce - $23 OF: Elijah Dukes - $20 OF: Ryan Ludwick - $18 OF: Kosuke Fukudome - $6 OF: Angel Pagan - $2 UT: Jeff Clement - $8 P: Ricky Nolasco - $26 P: Joe Blanton - $10 P: Clayton Richard - $8 P: Francisco Rodriguez - $16 P: Takashi Saito - $4 P: Pedro Feliciano - $3 P: Joe Thatcher - $1 P: Kiko Calero - $1 P: John Smoltz - $1 P: Edinson Volquez - $1 RSV: Chien-Ming Wang (SP) RSV: Kevin Hart (SP) RSV: Livan Hernandez (SP) RSV: Fernando Nieve (SP) RSV: Carlos Silva (SP) RSV: Brian Moehler (SP) The rest of the LABR results will appear in USA Today's Sports Weekly next week along with some comments from each of the participants. Feel free to share any early thoughts on my roster below. Posted by Derek Carty at 2:51pm Separating the very good from the merely goodLooking over the Mock Draft Central ADP report and focusing on when certain positions are taken, it becomes clear that a run of outfielders generally occurs in drafts from picks 50 to 70. In a standard 12-team draft those picks equate to the beginning of round five to the end of round six. Looking at the data I count a total of 24 players picked on average over this 21-pick stretch and 12 of them happen to be outfielders. Forgoing anonymity, they are the following players. Nick Markakis Adam Lind Curtis Granderson Josh Hamilton B.J. Upton Adam Dunn Nelson Cruz Manny Ramirez Andre Ethier Shin-Soo Choo Carlos Lee Shane Victorino So this means about half of the players taken over this stretch are outfielders and even with the usual ADP caveats, I think it is worth investigating to find out who the best options are of this grass-roaming group. Using the recently debuted THT Projections we can come up with a general expectation for each player and using those numbers as a baseline, separate the very good from the merely good. Here are those same 12 players again but instead of their 2009 numbers next to their name, their projected stat line for the 2010 season follows.
As you can see, there are a couple of speed options such as Upton and Victorino, a few power options in Dunn in particular, and then there are those desirable across-the-board players in Granderson, Choo, and Cruz. Check out that line projected for Nelson Cruz! I don't like saying that my eyeballing of a player's peripheral stats is more accurate than a projection system, but in this case I do feel comfortable knocking a decent amount of home runs off of Cruz' projection.
Even with the detraction, Cruz comes off as an appealing option with his ability to contribute across the board. If, however, the fact that Cruz was in the minor leagues not more than a year ago makes you afraid to pull the trigger at this stage of a draft, then Granderson appears to be a similar, yet much safer option. The third five-category contributor, Choo, I find less appealing than most, mainly because of his notoriously high BABIP, which when regressed, would wipe away the extra value he provides in the batting average category. If you are looking for power, Adam Dunn is the only player of the group besides Cruz predicted to hit over 30 home runs and with his average projected to not drop below the .260 mark, should not wreck havoc on your team's batting average. Carlos Lee and Manny, while capable of hitting 30-plus home runs with ease no too long ago, are now well into their thirties and most likely will top out at about 25 home runs. The hidden power supply in this group is found where Adam Lind stands with, in my opinion, the ability to hit another 30 bombs or more in 2010. A projection system, understandably, would be skeptical of Lind's power outburst last year but as someone who predicted the outburst, it does not seem altogether too improbable for it to happen again. Couple his power ability with his relatively high .290-.300 average and out comes an attractive outfield option in the sixth round. Andre Ethier is close to having the home run and average capabilities of Lind but will more likely finish with around 25 to 28 home runs instead. He may be a safer option given his more proven track record, but Lind is definitely more capable of posting home run totals well into the thirties and is also the player I am partial to taking given the choice between the two similar players. Rounding out the last of the players: Markakis, while perhaps the safest player to draft of this bunch, does not appear to have the ceiling anymore of the other players. In retrospect, I should not have argued in favor of Markakis over Troy Tulowitzki in the comments section of this article. Hamilton has a ceiling that reaches into the stratosphere, but his riskiness due to poor health and general inconsistency when on the field turn me away from him. Another risk magnet, B.J. Upton, is a player almost impossible to forecast. At least with him if all else fails, you can count on around 40 steals and somewhere indeterminable, yet tangible, there exists the possibility of a year reminiscent of his magnificent 2007. Finally there is Victorino, who is an overall solid fantasy player as his projected line indicates. The difficultly with him is deciding where to rank him amongst this group of players. A comparison between Victorino and Ethier looks like this: even in terms of batting average, Ethier gets a slight edge in RBI/run totals and so it comes down to home runs and steals. Ethier can be expected to hit about 15 more home runs while Victorino will thieve approximately 25 more bases. Which is more valuable, the 15 home runs or 25 steals? It is a difficult question to answer and one that makes rankings two players like this a struggle. Most of the time I would opt to take the slugger early and grab Ethier, though a reasonable case could also be made for Victorino. If I had to make a definitive list ranking these players it would look something like this: 1) Curtis Granderson 2) Nelson Cruz 3) Adam Lind 4) Adam Dunn 5) B.J. Upton 6) Andre Ethier 7) Shane Victorino 8) Josh Hamilton 9) Nick Markakis 10) Shin-Soo Choo 11) Carlos Lee 12) Manny Ramirez Having sorted (for the most part) these outfielders out, the question now is will you take an outfielder during this popular spot in the draft? And the answer to that question ... I'll let you decide. If you are interested in the THT Projections for all players for the 2010 season (and beyond), check out this page for more information. Posted by Paul Singman at 4:45am Monday, March 08, 2010Clone Wars: Jonathon Papelbon and Daniel Bard Both players received their major league debuts at 24 and entered their age 25 season ready to break spring training with the team. Papelbon of course struggled with injuries that year, but we'll just look at what their minor league numbers look like. Bard did start in his first season, but was atrocious at Single-A and high A. His K/BB at both levels was 0.60 with an insane 9.4 walks per nine innings. That is in 75 IP and was a big reason he hasn't started since. He turned it around quickly though in 2008 as he returned to A ball as a reliever and absolutely dominated. In 28 IP at A ball he had a K/9 of 13.8 and a BB/9 of 1.3 and moved up quickly to Double-A where he proved he could continue to pitch well, despite struggling with walks. His BB/9 rose to 4.7, but he still showed a dominant ERA at 1.99. After a short 16 IP in Triple-A starting 2009 he did show the great K/BB skills again at 5.80. All together as a reliever he threw a 13.1 K/9 and a BB/9 of 3.36. It's tough to judge relievers in the minor leagues as they have so many small sample sizes at so many levels. Let's see how this compares to Papelbon when he was in the minors: Papelbon threw plenty of innings due to being a starter and should be able to see his skill, but must remember that pitchers gain strikeouts when moving to the pen. Papelbon had some very good numbers in the minors. His K/9 was 9.7 across all levels, but fell to 8.6 at Double-A and Triple-A in 2005. While his strikeout rate has now climbed to over 10 he did show he would have good control with a 2.5 BB/9 across all levels. This maybe the biggest difference between the two. Bard has a slightly lower level of control and will result in a higher walk rate. This means he needs to maintain his elite strikeout levels of 2008 and 2009 just to have K/BB numbers near Papelbon's best. Bard's numbers did follow this pattern so far as he held a K/9 of 11.5 last season, but his walk rate was at 4.0. Papelbon did have a similar first year with a walk rate of 4.5. Will Bard follow in his path and show better control this year? That's unclear, but even if he's not pitching like a perfect clone of Papelbon he's going to be the closer of the future. Posted by Troy Patterson at 4:54am Friday, March 05, 2010Kiko Calero Signs With New York MetsEven before the 2009-2010 offseason started, I was a fan of Kiko Calero. Calero returned to the big leagues in 2009 after missing most of the 2008 season (4.2 innings) with a rotator cuff injury. Not only did he return, but he enjoyed in his best season to date. The 35-year-old pitched in 67 games for the Marlins going 2-2 with a 1.97 ERA and a sparkling 2.56 FIP. However, Calero remained unsigned until yesterday when the Mets agreed on a minor league deal with the right-hander. It seems strange that a player with those types of numbers was reduced to a minor league contract, but whispers have floated around about his medical records. Unfortunately, I don’t have access to those records, but we can still look at his numbers. The biggest reason for Calero’s success in 2009 was keeping the ball in the hard. He allowed just one home run in 60 innings which gave him a microscopic 0.15 HR/9. The low HR/9 was a product of a ridiculously low HR/FB rate of 1.4%. If we normalized that rate, we see his xFIP jumped to 3.92 and his LIPS ERA to 3.69. Both are still very good numbers from a middle reliever. Assuming he’s healthy, Calero will experience some regression in the home run department. That said, his career HR/9 of 0.71 and HR/FB of 6.7% show that he has been good at keeping home runs to a minimum throughout his career. In addition to home run regression, he is likely to see a slight BABIP correction (.259 in 2009, .286 career) On top of the wonderful home run rates, Calero was pretty good at making the opposition to swing and miss at his pitches. Working mostly off his slider (54.4%) and fastball (41.4%), Calero struck out more than a batter per nine innings last season (10.35). Unlike the home-run rate, this was pretty close to his 9.63 career K/9 mark. The Mets go into 2010 with Francisco Rodriguez as the unquestioned closer. However, behind K-Rod is a bunch of question marks. The Mets signed another favorite of mine, Kelvim Escobar, this offseason, but Escobar’s injury concerns are even greater than those of Calero’s. Despite the minor-league deal, Calero has a legit chance of becoming the Mets set-up man. If something should happen to Frankie Rodriguez, Calero may steal a few cheap saves. Posted by Tommy Rancel at 7:00am Waiver Wire Offseason: ALWaiver Wire Offseason Derek Holland | Texas | SP 2009 Final Stats: 7.0 K/9, 2.3 K/BB, 6.12 ERA LIPS ERAs (2009): 4.81  In analyzing pitchers, especially ones who are coming off bad years, there is almost always conflicting data. Holland was downright miserable from Aug. 14 onward: 3-6, 8.18 ERA, 31 K, 17 BB, 12 (yes, 12) HR in 47.1 IP. Batting line against was .321/.382/.592. Anyone who saw him during that stretch would take some convincing to believe he actually has a future as a good fantasy pitcher. Then again, before the 2009 season, BA's Prospect Handbook had him ranked No. 2, behind the amazing Neftali Feliz and ahead of guys like Andrus and Smoak. On Aug. 14, he was coming off some spectacular wins against some bad offensive teams, and we were convinced that he was for real, and ready to be at least a “solid” starting pitcher. Worse still, the various “stuff” (or “peripherals”) metrics don't agree at all about how well Holland actually pitched in 2009. The gun had him at 92.5 average for his fastballs. That much is known with some certainty. And his “velo” wasn't down in September, as he averaged 92.7 mph on Sept. 6, nearly touching 95 (94.9) on one pitch. His changeup and slider (his 2a and 2b pitches) have good separation, coming in about 8-11 mph slower. Neither scouting nor Pitch F/X have indicated that his fastball has become “flat,” rather that it's still showing good movement. Many experts are predicting a good year for him. And xFIP agrees with them, normalizing the BABIP and HR/FB% to indicate that he should have had a fine 4.34 ERA in 2009. BUT ... Fangraphs.com's preferred pitching metric, tERA, is closer to his real ERA, at 5.46. And LIPS, which we like at THT for it's strong historical correlations to reality, splits the difference at 4.81. We love the left side of the Rangers' defense (where many balls should go with Holland pitching), and believe in the Rangers' vision for their pitching. We think that it's very likely that Holland will grow in confidence as he watches hard-hit balls routinely turned into outs by Andrus, Young, and whoever plays left field (Hamilton, Murphy, Cruz can all pick it). We also like the idea of facing the other three teams in the AL West frequently. The Angels scored a lot in 2009, but with Chone in Seattle, Godzilla replacing Vlad, and some of the other guys having years which suggest some slippage in 2010, it seems possible that all three division rivals may be below average in run scoring. So, we'd trust the stuff to some extent. The worry points are that as badly as he was being hammered late in 2009, he could have been hiding an injury or tipping his pitches. For now, we're going with the “inexperience” theory; he only had 26 innings in Double-A before 2009. But he's still relatively inexperienced, so some bad (read: “ugly”) outings wouldn't be a shock, and Texas is still his home park, so we're not talking Cliff Lee here. Alexei Ramirez | Chicago | SS 2009 Final Stats: .277/.333/.389  Off topic, but Eric Seidman Tweeted Thursday that “Tanner Scheppers threw one pitch 132 mph, and Chris Carter hit a 725-foot home run off of it. Only Heyward leapt 100 ft to snare it.” While this was commentary on the hyperbole frequently used in Spring Training reports, it brought to mind the sort of nonsense that has been spewed out of airwaves and all over print media in Chicagoland regarding Alexei Ramirez, starting from about the time he arrived in town. In 2008, he was this amazing young superstar, who, after a slow start, was tearing up the league—ending with 21 HR in 480 AB, and being clearly better at shortstop than the incumbent, Orlando Cabrera (at least according to many accounts, including all the announcers who weren't reluctant to point it out). That was 2008.
Then came 2009, and the slow start wasn't expected. After all, he'd proven himself in 2008. Then came “Golden” Gordon Beckham, who may have one scout convinced he can play shortstop at the MLB level ... provided, of course, that he has a dog named “Scout.” But he didn't make those stupid-looking plays on April 24; that was Alexei. And the way he's battering Double-A pitchers, it's clear that he'll out-hit Alexei too. Well, the last part was true, as Beckham truly is a phenomenal talent, but from June 4 (when Beckham debuted), Ramirez hit .290/.350/.419. For the season, his “awful defense” (seriously, you have to read/watch/listen to the “journalists” in this town to believe how often this mantra is repeated) resulted in a 2.4 UZR/150. That means that after having not played shortstop regularly for four years, Alexei Ramirez was better than an average MLB shortstop defensively (per UZR). GM Kenny Williams “had his back” in November, too, stating flat-out that he was staying at shortstop, "because Alexei is better than Gordon at short.” Like Kenny, we expect the throwing errors to drop in 2010, as he gains experience at the position. Frankly, given the sub-par defensive stats Alexei posted at second base in 2008, White Sox fans should have been outright exuberant about his defensive performance. It's not like anyone can tell the difference between a .969 fielding percentage (Alexei 2009) and a .972 fielding percentage (AL average). That's a lot of talk about defense for a fantasy column, of course. We wanted to drive home the point that Alexei Ramirez is the White Sox shortstop, beyond any possibility of confusion, however. As a hitter, he evokes images of Shawon Dunston, and his age-26/age-27 seasons have resulted in OPS+ scores of 103 and 87, compared to 100 and 87 for Dunston at the same ages. He's still very undisciplined, but there's no reason he won't grow more in that area than Dunston did, so some growth can be expected, and a league-average hitter playing in U.S. Cellular as a shortstop is a nice fantasy asset, especially if he is a low-OBP guy (walks don't help in most fantasy leagues) and has a little speed—“The Cuban Missile” has more speed than his modest SB and triples totals indicate, which suggests that he should keep stealing about 15 bases per year. Given his limited U.S. experience, we expect more from him at age 28 than we would from other players, and think he's a very solid fantasy option for 2010. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | Texas | C 2009 Final Stats: .233/.290/.371  This author made Jarrod Saltalamacchia a pick in the Baseball Daily Digest “Dream Draft” before the 2009 season, wherein 12 baseball experts from various sites drafted 10 players they wanted for 2009-2014 performance. Fast forward to Thursday, when he went 2-for-3 with a three-run homer to kick off the spring festivities, and all is on track for this young, up-and-coming star catcher, right? Nice thought, except for this thing called “reality.” Thoracic Outlet Syndrome diagnoses can vary widely in terms of long-term effects. At any level, it's about as welcome in a catcher's medical report as a labrum tear for a pitcher. In some ways, the worse news for prospective Salty owners (and the Rangers) is that he wasn't showing nearly the hoped-for offensive growth even before the injury, though it has to be assumed that the shoulder was bothering him long before he went out. We have cautious optimism about Salty at this point, even in the face of all the negative events. He is a gifted hitter, as catchers go. He plays in Texas, and they seem committed to making him the starter. He hits enough that he could pick up some AB at 1B or DH. But he does combine unproven offense with the playing time issues of a Mike Napoli (i.e., even less than the typical catcher). We wouldn't suggest passing on any good players to take him, but Saltalamacchia playing in Texas could probably provide more fantasy value than Rob Johnson in Seattle ... even if he batted one-handed. Heater Magazine has begun publishing its daily report of box scores, The Rundown. Don't miss a box score today, this weekend, or any day for the rest of the season. Subscribers to Heater receive a nifty little PDF via email (in Spring Training, it's usually sent in the evening after the games). This perk lasts through the regular season and the playoffs. Get a free issue of The Rundown here. Posted by Rob McQuown at 4:00am Waiver Wire Offseason: NLLastings Milledge | Pittsburgh | OF 2009 Final Stats: .279/.323/.373  2009 started out horribly for Milledge, who began as the leadoff hitter for the Washington Nationals but quickly rubbed management the wrong way and earned a demotion to Triple-A Syracuse to straighten out his attitude. A few weeks later, hitting just .253/.277/.316, he broke his finger trying to lay down a bunt, an injury that required surgery and knocked him out of action for six to eight weeks. Then, a few weeks after that, he found himself traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates as part of a package with Joel Hanrahan, for Nyjer Morgan and Sean Burnett. With the Pirates, however, Milledge started to turn it around. After a few weeks of minor-league rehab, he came back up and Pittsburgh quickly inserted him in the starting lineup, hitting in the middle of the order. Milledge responded by hitting .291/.333/.395, including a three-week stretch between August and September when he hit .406/.458/.578 in 19 games. He's now saying that the finger injury held his power back, something that's always been part of the Milledge package (.470 minor-league SLG, with 100 2B and 38 HR over 1559 PAs), along with speed (90 SBs in 131 chances and eight 3Bs in that same time). Unfortunately, attitude is also part of the Milledge package, which is why he's already with his third organization, in spite of the hype about him. Another part of the Milledge Package (it's got a nice ring, doesn't it?) is a strikeout rate over 20% and a 6% walk rate—not awful, but not predictive of a great BA, particularly not with his career contact rate of 78%. He's improved in each of those statistical areas over the past four seasons, however, except for his walk rate, which has held steady. The attitude is a bit harder to measure, but there weren't reports of problems with the Pirates after he joined them; whether that's a honeymoon or not remains to be seen. These rising trends are good signs, and no doubt why GP is cautiously optimistic for next season, even if a .767 OPS isn't terribly impressive for a corner OF. Milledge's value comes from his multi-category contributions; those same GP predictions have him making adequate (if not overwhelming) contributions in HR, SB, R and RBI. Most owners will focus on those hard-to-collect steals, which are, as ever, a function of opportunity, both in his own ability to get on base and how often the manager cuts him loose. The latter part of the equation depends on manager John Russell, who brought Pittsburgh from a team with one of the lowest steal totals in 2008 to the middle of the NL pack in 2009. That could have been a function of new talent like Milledge and Andrew McCutchen as much as anything else, but it looks like he'll allow Milledge to steal in the right situation. The situation may not come up as often if he's hitting fifth or lower in the lineup, where he's currently expected to hit. And the ultimate question is whether a guy with a frozen walk rate and a below-average contact will get on base; if he does, it's likely to be behind either Garrett Jones or Ryan Doumit, who could jam up the bases (Jones has some speed, but I don't see too many Jones-Milledge double steals coming). This all makes those 21 SB projected by GP seem a bit elevated. So fantasy owners should consider Milledge a mid-round choice—that $19 value is nice, but it's tied to those swipes, so I wouldn't speculate too high above that. Your fellow owners may be bearish, as indicated by that negative Sentiment number in his mini-browser, so he could come at a discount. Keeper owners will like the fact that he's only 24, and a breakout is possible—but so is a reemergence of his attitude problems. Bid with caution. Felipe Lopez | St. Louis | 2B 2009 Final Stats: .310/.383/.427  Among his sleeve tatoos, which are all baseball-related, Lopez ought to fit one in of Rodney Dangerfield, since he sure doesn't seem to get much respect. He's played for nine teams in as many seasons, and sat at home during much of this past offseason, waiting for teams to come calling. He finally came to terms with St. Louis last week on a one-year, $2M deal, as one of the last big-name free agents to find a home. (That lack of respect could have come from being a client of Scott "Show Me More Money" Boras, whom Lopez fired about a week before inking that Cards deal.) While he hasn't been amazing in his career, Lopez has been steady, and steadily improving. His career line is just .269/.338/.400, but it's gotten better since becoming a full-timer in 2005, rising to .280/.349/.407, while averaging 12 HR and 19 SB per season. His BB/K is only .50 for his career, but in those same five seasons, it's grown to .57, averaging .63 over the last two years. He's also been dependable, appearing in 140+ games in each of those four seasons. Really, the one bad spot in that four-year span is his time with the Nationals, where he averaged .250/.320/.344. Everywhere else, he had an OPS 100 points or more higher. It's worthwhile to note that his 43 games with St. Louis in 2008 were his best; he clobbered .385/.426/.538 over 169 PAs. 2009 seemed awfully solid, too, but the mini-browser shows you some of the reasons: a rise in his walk rate and a 37 H%, helped further by a career-low 17% strikeout rate. That's why he's predicted for a line somewhere in between 2008 and 2009—nobody sees him cracking .800 OPS again, not even with the Cards. But that prediction is also a very good bet; everyone sees him with an OPS in the .730-.760 range, a good place for a MIF to be. It's a good bet because of his very nice 80+ contact percentage, including 92% inside the zone, both of which he's maintained steadily since that promotion to the starting lineup in 2005. And when he connects, he only hits about 30% fly balls, helping his BA but reducing his HR output. Though his breakout 2005 season featured 23 longballs, that had more to do with a ridiculous 18.1% HR/FB than any underlying skill. Double-digit dingers is an accomplishment for Lopez these days. His modest power, speed and batting eye combine with his contact rate to create a solid leadoff guy, where he's hit for Washington, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Milwaukee and Arizona, and where he should hit once again with St. Louis. The Cards didn't have a good leadoff guy in 2009, and Lopez should score plenty of runs ahead of Pujols and Holliday. Though the ratios look good, his GP values were calculated as if he'd remained in Milwaukee, splitting time with Rickie Weeks (the only assumption we could make at presstime). This PT situation, as well as the lineup he's sitting on top of, means you can double those PAs and all his counting stats to make him worth at least twice as much as that $5 projection—I'd put him closer to $13. His veteran experience and good peripherals make him a very nice MIF option for mixed leagues and an excellent NL-only option. Like Milledge, he's one of those guys who gives a bit in every category, particularly BA, and should get more respect in your fantasy draft than he did in the 2009-10 offseason. Homer Bailey | Cincinnati | SP 2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 1.7 K/BB, 4.53 ERA  Among all the promising young starting pitchers for the Reds, Bailey has been the disappointment. The No. 7 overall pick in 2004, he became the Reds' top prospect for the next three seasons (at least according to Baseball America), but he's consistently failed to live up to expectations. Other than a groin pull that set him back in 2007, the problem has been his own, though it's typical for a power pitcher: finding the strike zone, at least in the majors. Featuring a fastball that touches the high 90s and a baffling curve, Bailey's minor-league K/BB ratio sits at a respectable 2.37. But he's only averaged 1.36 K/BB in MLB, thanks to a strikeout rate that sits a shade over 6 K/9, combined with a 4.5 BB/9. In 2009, this trend continued. He started the year in Triple-A, earning a call-up after Edinson Volquez went down. But he was thrashed soundly in his one appearance, a 6 ER, 4.1 IP outing against Cleveland when he walked six and struck out only three, needing 95 pitches to get even that far. And so back down he went, dominating Triple-A hitting so thoroughly that he won 4 of 5 starts with a 0.47 ERA, reportedly developing a splitter in the process. When he returned to the bigs in late June, he again lost the strike zone for his first 10 starts, striking out 1.4 batters for each one that he walked, thanks to a 5.3 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9. He also gave up 1.6 HR/9, all en route to a 7.11 ERA and a 1.60 WHIP, and a predictably poor 3-7 record. Then he found himself—and the strike zone—over his final nine starts of the season, reflected by his 2.2 K/BB, 8.2 K/9, and tiny 0.3 HR/9 rates, though he still walked batters at a nearly identical 3.7 BB/9 clip. Unsurprisingly, he went 6-3 over that stretch, with a 1.70 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. It certainly looks like Bailey turned a corner in those final nine starts, and his xFIP shows that Bailey's been getting marginally better each year. 2008 was so awful in part due to an anomalous 18.6% HR/FB rate, as well as a .376 BABIP. That's bad luck, possibly combined with a tendency to groove his fastball—when you're walking 4.2 per 9 while striking out only 4.5 per 9, you're gonna have to throw a lot more down the pipe. Sure enough, batters had a 94% contact rate against Bailey's pitches in the zone, a sure sign that he was awfully hittable. This year reversed many of those trends, with a much more normal 9.4 HR/FB% and a .306 BABIP. With Bailey working ahead in more counts, he dropped that Z-contact rate to 89%, while the contact rate on outside the zone fell 10 points from 2008 to 2009. That could have a lot to do with his splitter, which Fangraphs' pitch breakdown shows he threw anywhere from 7-19% of the time (there's a mystery pitch that gets thrown 11%, which seems to me most likely to be his splitter); it's also his least effective pitch (-2.75 wSF/C). But even if it's getting hit, it could be setting up his fastball, which also picked up a few mph since 2008; these increased the effectiveness of his heater by nearly 2 runs per 100 pitches. His slider and curve also showed dramatic improvement, picking up nearly 10 runs between them (also per 100 pitches). This does suggest that Bailey should build on that second-half step forward he took in 2009, but there's plenty to suggest caution, too. Taking nine starts as evidence of a pitcher suddenly putting it all together is betting on an awfully small sample space, especially considering his youth and his MLB history. His walk rates are still too high for him to be completely effective, even in that short stint of success. GP reflects this caution in its particularly bearish outlook, though it's not that much more pessimistic than other systems. He remains a talent to watch early in the season, but I'm not yet convinced enough to take him on more than a flyer, even in keeper leagues. He's got a lot of upside, particularly in strikeouts, but he remains a risk to your ratios—consider other Cincinnati arms before this one. Rickie Weeks | Milwaukee | 2B 2009 Final Stats: .272/.340/.517  You have to like Weeks' swagger at the plate, his aggressive posture, his defiant, Sheffield-like bat waggle ... but that same waggle may be responsible for the multiple wrist surgeries that have derailed Weeks' young career, and the aggressiveness has made him a difficult fit as leadoff hitter in front of Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun. The health question isn't one that can be definitively answered, but the aggressiveness could make the difference in whether he reaches his power-speed potential or not. Last season's numbers looked awfully good, but a glance at the mini-browser shows they were held up by a 37% hit rate, and that SLG comes from career highs in fly ball rate (43.5%) and HR/FB (19.1%). Had his wrist sheath not sent him to the DL after just 162 PAs, his year would have looked a lot different. How different is hard to say, but his 7.4% walk rate was his lowest since 2006, and his strikeout rate had regressed two points to 26.5%, falling somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers. Both of these combined for his worst BB/K ratio since his 14-PA first season, not a good indicator, especially for a leadoff guy. He continues to be a great fastball hitter, and his 2.39 wFB/C was his best ever, but he struggles against the offspeed stuff—both changes (-5.86 wCH/C) and splitters (-5.22 wSF/C) befuddled him in 2009 more than ever. The changeup trend continues a drop from 2008, while his futility against the splitter was his second-worst season, performing worse against them only during that 2003 cup of coffee. Those aren't encouraging trends, and he's not really dominant enough against fastballs to offset those problems. So for every favorable glimpse we see of Weeks in 2009, there's another trend that's equally disturbing. Either one can be written off to the relatively brief season he had, another trend that's been all too familiar to Brewers fans. Weeks has yet to play 130 games or more in his five MLB seasons, only twice playing more than 100 games. He's missed time in each of the last four seasons to various dings and dents, and three of those times have been to his troublesome wrists. The bright side is that he's recovered from this exact same wrist surgery before, in 2007. He missed a bit of time during that season to tendinitis in the same wrist he'd had surgery on, then went on to a good, if not great, season, as you can see from the mini-browser, with a much better second half than first. He's had more time to recover this time around, and has had no wrist issues reported from camp so far. Nobody knows whether (or where) he might be injured again, and he has refused to stop that Sheffield waggle, even if it's been the source of his wrist problems. Weeks offers speed as well as power, and he can steal bases with no wrists (or arms, for that matter). Even if he only delivers modest power, those SBs should help keep his value up, assuming he continues to get on base at a moderate clip. His middling contact rate means he'll drag at your BA, but his OBP puts him on at a decent 34-35% rate, so long as the worrisome K and BB trends he exhibited at the start of last season don't continue. Another aspect that may affect Weeks' SB total is Alcides Escobar, the speedy shortstop for the Brewers. Escobar is expected to hit eighth—or possibly ninth, as Macha has said he'll try hitting the pitcher eighth in Spring Training—but Escobar should eventually hit first. That would presumably push Weeks to second in the lineup, ahead of Ryan Braun, which could allow him to see more fastballs, his favorite pitch. He might not steal as many bases for you in the two-hole, but he'll more than compensate in other areas, like driving Escobar home (something he could still do, of course, if Macha bats Escobar ninth). GP's predictions were based on a half-season (see the Lopez writeup above for an explanation for that), so there's no reason Weeks can't reach at least the 20-20 club, if not better, if he can stay healthy. His projected value will, of course, increase along with his PT, and only more injuries will keep him from doubling that $7 projection. You'd be wise to have a backup plan if you draft Weeks, who slips to the second tier of 2B mainly due to the BA and health risk. Brewers fans and fantasy owners would love to see him beat that projection and rise into the first tier, but the 27-year-old still needs to prove himself, despite being in the league since 2003. Jason Hammel | Colorado | SP 2009 Final Stats: 6.8 K/9, 3.2 K/BB, 4.33 ERA  How many pitchers can say that it took getting traded to Colorado for them to solidify their skills? Not many, and Hammel is one of those select few. Three years with Tampa Bay weren't enough for him to put it together, and so the Rays swapped him to the Rockies early in the 2009 season when he looked like someone they couldn't use in their rotation. Colorado didn't think they could use him as a starter, either, but then Franklin Morales went down with a strained shoulder. Hammel got into the rotation on May 3, pitched six shutout innings against San Francisco, and never left it. That doesn't mean Hammel had an easy ride on the mound. He lost his next three starts, and didn't have another shutout outing until the last game of the season, when he threw two scoreless innings of relief. He gave up four or more ER in seven starts during the season, and failed to get out of the fourth inning in three starts, one of them a 1.1 IP, 5 ER thrashing at the hands of the lowly Mets in Shea Stadium. But Colorado was no sanctuary for him, either; his home ERA was 5.73 and he gave up 12 of his 17 home runs there. Still, despite the bumps, Hammel definitely showed improvement last season. He doesn't have an overpowering repertoire, but it is broad, with several arm angles and four pitches he throws with regularity. He found his success as a groundballer, increasing his GB% each year in the minors, until he topped off at an impressive 51.2% his final year in Durham. He hasn't done quite as well getting major-leaguers to pound the ball into the ground, but he still managed a 46.2 GB% and the very nice GB/FB ratios you see in his mini-browser. He also controlled his walks better than ever in 2009, slicing his walk rate in half. And he got better as the season progressed; though he struggled in July, from July 1 onward, he walked just 1.9 per 9 IP. Walks mean a bit less to a groundballer, who can induce more double plays than your average bear, but it's still a good thing to keep runners off the bases in a park like Colorado. Hammel also ramped up the K rate over that same three-month span, striking out 7.1 per 9. Even better, 2009 reflects a bit of bad luck, as you can see from both his 3.71 FIP and the .327 BABIP against him. That's a bit of a surprise, because most of the Colorado infield (so important to a groundball pitcher) was well above average in UZR/150, even if the team as a whole is below average in defensive efficiency. The 2010 Rockies will have a very similar infield defense, with Ian Stewart (8.3 UAR/150 in 2010) getting a crack at 3B and Clint Barmes (7.5 UZR/150 in 2009) in the early lead for the 2B slot. That would portend the ball bouncing Hammel's way a bit more in 2010, and a corresponding ERA drop. The other bad luck area for Hammel was in strand rate, which was a subpar 69.5% last season, also portending a downward correction in ERA, albeit a slight one. He'll be Colorado's fifth starter, a further incentive to greatness, at least from a matchup perspective. It will diminish his IP and Wins, and his Coors splits and narrow margin for error are also a concern, amid all the other good news. Along with other projection systems, GP is pessimistic overall, largely because this was his first good season, but he's got a really good shot to beat those projections. He's well worth a late-round flier and a bid of $1 or $2, and could fill the back end of your fantasy rotation nicely. Graphical Player 2010 is SOLD OUT, so I hope you got yours! But you can still get an edge up on your fantasy league with a subscription to HEATER magazine, with detailed stats and predictions like this twice a week! Posted by Michael Street at 2:00am Thursday, March 04, 2010Introducing THT ForecastsJust in time for the start of Spring Training, I’m excited to present to you the newest Hardball Times offering—THT Forecasts. In a partnership with Brian Cartwright, the brilliant inventor of the Oliver projection system, we have produced forecasts for over 7,000 major and minor league players. For each player, Brian has provided us with detailed projections for the next six years, along with raw statistics and major league equivalencies for each of the past three seasons. This includes hitting, pitching, and fielding statistics, and coming soon, base running as well. Our fielding data is based on Brian’s own play-by-play system, and we’re also adding together all of this data to give you both actual (for past seasons) and projected wins above replacement (WAR), so that you can see just how valuable each player has been in the past, and how much value we expect him to have in the future. All of these are things you won’t find anywhere else. Most importantly, these are not just some static forecasts that will lose all value once season the starts. Instead, we will be providing complete updates of our projections every week, taking into account every single thing that has happened on the field until that point. Wondering if a player will keep up his hot start or bust out of his slump? There’ll be no need to play guessing games anymore. We’re not implementing any shortcuts, either: Each update will use the same projection engine that we use in the off-season. And to give our projections context, we’ve also partnered with the fabulous THT Fantasy staff to provide weekly updated depth chart projections. So you not only get a computer-generated projection for each player but also a forecast that incorporates the player’s actual expected playing time to tell you how much he’ll actually be contributing at the major league level. And again, the depth charts will be updated every week to make sure you have the freshest information possible. We’re still not done, though. We’ve recruited 30 of the best bloggers (list below) from around the internet to provide us with commentary on over 1,300 players—and once the season starts, they’ll be providing fresh remarks so that you not only get our objective forecast, but the kind of subjective knowledge you can only get from people who watch these players day-in and day-out. If you’re a baseball fan (and reading this site pretty much automatically means you are), you will love THT Forecasts, and with so much stuff (and weekly updates!), you will never get bored of it. And I say this without mentioning all the cool stuff we’ll be adding over the coming days, weeks, and months. All of this you can purchase right now for just $14.95. We know that in a recession, money is tight, but that is why we’re offering the lowest price we possibly can. The price will go up next year (especially considering that we’ll be launching the 2011 version of THT Forecasts quite a bit earlier than this season), but if you purchase this year, we’ll keep the purchase price the same for you next year as well. That’s almost as good a value as Albert Pujols! Just to recap, here is a partial list of what you will get with THT Forecasts:
All of this is available for just $14.95. So subscribe now! Or, subscribe to THT Forecasts and receive the Hardball Times Annual 2011 as soon as it is released this fall for just $34.95 ($39.95 for Canadian residents). If you’re not convinced yet, we’ve made all the New York Yankee pages free for your perusal so that you can take a look at what we’re offering before you subscribe. It’s a sneak peak we know no baseball fan will be able to resist. --- The player comment authors are, Baltimore Orioles, Stacey Long, Camden Chat Boston Red Sox, Evan Brunell, The Hardball Times New York Yankees, SG, Replacement Level Yankees Weblog Tampa Bay Devil Rays, Cork Gaines, Rays Index Toronto Blue Jays, Jonathan Hale, The Hardball Times Chicago White Sox, Mike Pindelski Cleveland Indians, Ryan Richards, Let’s Go Tribe Detroit Tigers, Brian Borawski, Tiger Blog Kansas City Royals, Bradford Doolittle, Sports Radio KC Minnesota Twins, Parker Hageman, Over the Baggy Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, Sean Smith, Anaheim Angels All the Way Oakland Athletics, Sal Baxamusa, The Hardball Times Seattle Mariners, Jeff Sullivan, Lookout Landing Texas Rangers, Scott Lucas, The Ranger Rundown Atlanta Braves, John Beamer, The Hardball Times Florida Marlins, Alex Carver New York Mets, Eric Simon, Amazin’ Avenue Philadelphia Phillies, Corey Seidman, Phillies Nation Washington Nationals, Chris Needham, Capitol Punishment Chicago Cubs, Harry Pavlidis, Cubs f/x Cincinnati Reds, Justin Inaz, Red Reporter Houston Astros, Lisa Gray, The Astros Dugout Milwaukee Brewers, Eric Johnson, Brew Crew Ball Pittsburgh Pirates, Pat Lackey, Where Have You Gone, Andy Van Slyke St. Louis Cardinals, Larry Borowsky, Viva El Birdos Arizona Diamondbacks, Jim McLennan, Arizona Snake Pit Colorado Rockies, Brandi Griffin, Purple Row Los Angeles Dodgers, Eric Stephen, True Blue LA San Diego Padres, Geoff Young, Ducksnorts San Francisco Giants, Steve Treder, The Hardball Times Posted by David Gassko at 9:34am Top 200 MLB prospects for 2010I couldn't help myself, and I definitely couldn't stop at 100. My top 200 prospects for 2010 are up and ready now. I will be updating the top 100 throughout the season, keeping you up to date on baseball's risers and fallers. Look for 2010 expectations and updated statistical projections throughout the season as well. Below is the list of players that were retired from the list during the offseason, in order of keeper value. Enjoy. Matt Wieters / C / Baltimore Tommy Hanson / SP / Atlanta Matt LaPorta / OF/1B / Cleveland David Price / SP / Tampa Bay Chris Tillman / SP / Baltimore Mat Gamel / 3B/OF / Milwaukee Brett Anderson / SP / Oakland Travis Snider / OF / Toronto Mat Latos / SP / San Diego Gordon Beckham / 3B/2B/SS / Chicago White Sox Colby Rasmus / OF / St. Louis Elvis Andrus / SS / Texas Dexter Fowler / OF / Colorado Rick Porcello / SP / Detroit Andrew McCutchen / OF / Pittsburgh Trevor Cahill / SP / Oakland Nolan Reimold / OF / Baltimore Kyle Blanks / 1B/OF / San Diego Cameron Maybin / OF / Florida Brett Cecil / SP / Toronto Bud Norris / SP / Houston Julio Borbon / OF / Texas Derek Holland / SP / Texas Vincent Mazzaro / SP / Oakland Chris Coghlan / OF/2B/3B / Florida Gerardo Parra / OF / Arizona Kris Medlen / SP/RP / Atlanta David Hernandez / SP / Baltimore Jeff Niemann / SP / Tampa Bay Ross Detwiler / SP / Washington Daniel Bard / RP / Boston Aaron Cunningham / OF / San Diego James McDonald / SP / LA Dodgers Sean West / SP / Florida Jordan Schafer / OF / Atlanta Gio Gonzalez / SP / Oakland Josh Outman / SP/RP / Oakland David Huff / SP / Cleveland Shairon Martis / SP / Washington Posted by Matt Hagen at 4:10am First worry about yourselfLast year, during my home league draft, I punted shortstop and catcher. Or rather, I deliberately held off drafting them for a long time. I had two players in mind for these positions, Elvis Andrus and A.J. Pierzynski, and was fairly confident after the first 15 rounds that I had them all to myself. The rules in my league were such that drafting two catchers or extra middle infielders over corner infielders before the reserve draft made little sense, at least to me. Of course, other teams had something else in mind and grabbed these players before I was ready to pull the trigger. In the end, I found Ben Zobrist early in the season and all was well at shortstop. At catcher, though, I suffered through Jarrod Saltalamacchia and then worse when he went down. (Eventually I traded with the guy who drafted Pierzynski for the catcher he had drafted early—Geovany Soto. That didn't work out too well either.) The moral here, as both Derek Ambrosino and I have written about, is to not let your strategies be too dependent on guessing what other owners are going to do. Of course, a little guessing or empathy is necessary; just don't go overboard. There's a bigger reward in better valuations of players than there is in hoping that low-hanging fruit is left undisturbed by the other owners in your league. Here's a rule of thumb: 1. Get your valuations down pat. If you're in a draft league, calculate/find out where you think the player should be drafted. If you're in an auction league, get a dollar value. Glance at average draft positions or some site's projected dollar values. If you're way off the consensus, try to find out why. Maybe this will help improve your valuations. DO NOT earmark players that are projected to go much lower (or for less) than you project as players that you can wait long on. These differences may be a result of differences in your league from the average league or recent changes in information about players that stale rankings are likely not to reflect. 2. On draft/auction day, let your valuations guide you. In a draft, if you think you can wait a round more for a player than where you have him projected at, go for it—as long as you don't absolutely need him. I wouldn't wait more than a round or so, though. If you pick up a round or two of value (a.k.a. expected profits) on even just four or five players (in addition to any good luck/bad luck profits or losses you might get in the course of the season), you should be in great shape to compete throughout the season. That's all you can really hope for from a draft. There's the saying that you can't win a draft in the first couple of rounds, but you can lose it—I think this applies to much more than the first couple of rounds. Sure, you are more likely to get upside luck with a player that you've drafted later (how much good luck could you really get from Albert Pujols, after all). But luck like that is (almost by definition) mostly random, whereas getting squeezed on a position because you waited too long to draft a player can leave lingering holes in your lineup. In an auction league, matters are slightly different. In auctions, you get expected profits when you draft a player for cheaper than what you had him valued at. Here, the equivalent of waiting too long in a draft league is not bidding (and winning) $11 on Evereth Cabrera even though you had him valued at $15 because you expected to earn even more on Andrus only to see Andrus go later in the draft for much more than you expected. In an auction, the downside to waiting is rather less, assuming you have the budget, since you can always win Andrus if you really need a shortstop. However, this brings me to a point about auctions: Don't think too much about when to nominate a player for bidding. That is, don't waste effort and brainpower, particularly while the auction is going, on if/when to nominate a player. There might be a slight bit of value to be gained by timing a nomination well, particularly if you know your leaguemates well. But an extremely good approximation of the best nominating strategy is acting randomly: sometimes nominating players that you value relatively highly, sometimes nominating players that you don't care about. This way, you won't give your opponents any information about how you value the players. Posted by Jonathan Halket at 4:20am Wednesday, March 03, 2010MLB 2K10 Fathead Jr. Giveaway2K Sports has offered the chance to win an Evan Longoria Fathead Jr. to THT Fantasy readers to promote the release of MLB 2K10. In case you have never heard of a Fathead it is a wall "sticker" that can be placed on and removed from a wall easily. For a look at the Longoria one you can check here: http://2ksports.com/whats_hot/mlb2k10/375 I figured why not give it to the person with the quickest Google search since that's all modern trivia online is. There are two questions, so please answer both and the first correct pair in the comments below will win the Fathead Jr. Both questions are Evan Longoria related since he is the MLB 2K10 cover athlete and on the winning Fathead Jr. (make sure to include your email in the comment so I can contact you). Question #1: Evan Longoria attended St. John Bosco High School and graduated in 2003. What former ROY winner also attended that school and graduated 12 years before? Question #2: Longoria transfered to Long Beach State after his freshman year, but was blocked from continuing to play shortstop by what current MLB shortstop? The game is released this week and for those who don't have the quickest Google skills, you can order the game through this link before April 2 and also receive a free Fathead Jr. of Longoria. http://2ksports.com/whats_hot/mlb2k10/375 Here are a couple of screen shots to whet your appetite for the game. I will be giving my thoughts on the game in a short time once I have played it, but this year the game has upped the ante by offering $1 million to the first player to pitch a perfect game. You can get more details from the 2K Sports site about how to enter the contest, but it needs to be a video recorded game and with certain matchups and settings.
This year also includes the "My Player Mode" which lets you create your own player and pick your team (not on all systems). You then play only as that player and attempt to create the next Hall of Famer.
You can also get more details about the game by following @2KSports and their Facebook page. Posted by Troy Patterson at 11:45am The mockery of mock draftsI’m not an avid mock drafter, but this past weekend, my friend Andrew and I decided to kill a few hours late Sunday morning by participating in one. I was reminded why mock drafts frustrate me. If you’re a THT Fantasy reader, and an astute and accomplished fantasy player, you know that the middle rounds are absolutely crucial to your draft. This is where many of your most difficult decisions will be made. This is where opinions begin to differ wildly about players who are expected to play a major role in the success of teams. This is where you feel out how far you can let some of your targets fall before you lose them to another team. For these reasons, it is especially frustrating that mock drafters often abandon drafts after the first few rounds and leave the remaining selections to autopick. This behavior is not only foolish, it undermines the integrity of the whole exercise. Additionally, it reinforces existing ADP as a function of its relation to pre-ranks. Frankly, ADP becomes less reliable as it gets deeper because a smaller percentage of drafters are manually selecting their own players deep into mock drafts. Therefore the pre-rank and ADP start to become an echo chamber. Once several teams switch on the autopilot, the others know who is going to be coming off the board so they are less inclined to reach for a player with a lower pre-rank, knowing half the teams are not threats to take him. Meanwhile, had the ghost owners stuck around, one of them may have taken the plunge as well. The sum of the circumstances conspire against late round sleepers moving up in terms of ADP. But, on the day of your real draft, don’t be surprised to see the Adrian Beltres of the world going sooner than you had been primed to expect through your participation in mock drafts. In essence, fantasy sports is like poker in the sense that it is meant to be played for stakes. Unlike, say, chess, you cannot accurately replicate the dynamic of a real fantasy baseball league if the participants don’t have anything invested in the game, and that’s why mock drafts are of limited utility. Apologies to all of those out there who play free leagues and/or take great pride in “winning” mock drafts, but you are not playing actual fantasy baseball any more than you would be playing Russian Roulette with an empty chamber. Only when there are consequences to poor decision making, indecision, and apathy does the decision-making process become genuine. And that’s basically what we’re measuring in fantasy baseball—who are the wisest decision makers? Even if we ignore the integrity arguments and focus on the individual utility of participating in a mock draft, it is rather unwise, not to mention an inefficient means of skills-building, to participate in a mock draft and not make the round 7-15 picks. In this mock draft, we had debated taking Carlos Beltran at one pick (we had the first pick, and therefore were picking back to back—the most difficult position to be in when it comes to deciding when to draft players around which there is considerable uncertainly) before ultimately passing at the last minute. I remarked that this could turn out be a nice experiment and was very curious to see whether Beltran would still be available more than 20 picks later. But it soon became clear that we’d get sniped by somebody on autopick, as Beltran approached the highest-ranked available player. Therefore, we weren’t able to conduct our experiment. Would an actual owner have selected Beltran? Would Beltran have even been there when we passed during the previous round? Well, what’s the point of the mock draft if the Carlos Beltran experiment can’t be conducted? … To see whether Evan Longoria gets taken before Miguel Cabrera? Who cares? I did take two things away from the mock draft though. We had the first pick and agreed to take Hanley Ramirez instead of Albert Pujols. We both just felt that HanRam offered us a greater chance to be versatile in terms of what we would choose to do throughout the rest of the draft. However, in a 12-team league, the owner drafting from the 1 slot will likely be presented with more players that resemble Ramirez than Pujols in the second and third round back-to-back. Had we taken Pujols, we’d still have had the option of Jimmy Rollins, Jose Reyes or Brandon Phillips to fulfill the five-tool middle infielder archetype. Meanwhile, the biggest corners available were Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Joey Votto. Knowing we wanted Grady Sizemore with one of our two picks, we chose to take Rollins anyway. Through three picks we were sitting on approximately 90 steals and 75 homers without having filled a corner outfielder and feeling relatively content. As our next pick approached, our thinking was that we’d have to give serious consideration to whoever represented the best homer potential and I was prepared to select Mark Reynolds whether Andrew approved or not. (It’s kind of cool to have the back-to-back when you are using a co-manager approach because you can simply split the picks when you can’t agree on the players you want.) Reynolds went a few picks before our turn though, which caused something of a last-minute change of strategy. Neither of us were ready to take Adam Dunn at this point and none of the other “power” options really tickled our fancy at the time (Adam Lind, meh). Andrew proposed we postpone our power move and do something radical by taking two starters back-to-back. I normally would think this was a bad idea, though I was eyeing Johan Santana with one of these two picks. Basically because I didn’t find the offensive options all that appealing, I bought in and figured we’d try the pitching combo route. So, we took Johan Santana and Jon Lester and made it a priority to get either Adam Dunn on our next turn, or take Carlos Pena in the following set if Dunn didn’t make it to us. That’s what mock drafts are for—you should be drafting to win, but willing to be experimental within that context. The results of this experiment weren’t bad. There were two reasons why I hesitated on the double pitcher move. The first is that pitching is so deep that I knew we’d be in round 12 and saying, “Wow, pitcher X is still here?” but we wouldn’t want to take that player because we already had two stud starters. That happened to be sure. But, the other reason was that I feared we might be digging ourselves too deep a power hole, having gone five picks without a “slugger.” This problem didn’t really come to fruition though. We wound up with Berkman (I like the bounceback potential) and Carlos Pena as 1B/CIs and continued to acquire 25/90 outfielders, making up ground in the power departments as other owners started drafting punch and judy R/SB middle infielders. By round 13, our offense looked no worse than just about anybody else’s, and only one other team had a 1-2 pitching combo as formidable as ours. All things considered, I think that experiment actually worked, even though I would prefer not having to have to employ that strategy. So the two lessons here are, one, if you're picking first in a 12-team league, your options on the way back will be more attractive among the toolsy middle infielder type than the slugging corner type. This may or may not influence your initial decision between Ramirez and Pujols. And, two, double dipping on starting pitching may not put you too far behind the offensive eight ball if you've left yourself the deeper positions to fill later in the draft. Many owners are forced to cobble together cheap speed later in the draft and pass on players at deep positions with perfectly respectable HR and RBI totals. The tortoise and the hare approach to power accumulation is still possible when drafting a pitcher twice out of your first five picks—at least in a 12-team mixed set-up. Finally, one general observation I have noticed over the years is that when it comes to snake drafts, the owners picking at the bookends are more likely than others to double dip at a position. There’s something appealing about skimming the top of the same talent pool twice before others have the chance to react to what you are doing. I’ve seen guys double dip on top closers, on catchers in two-catcher leagues, and here I double dipped on starting pitching, I’m not sure it’s any more advantageous to double dip as a bookend, but there’s something about that draft position that makes people more inclined to do it, anectdotally at least. Perhaps it’s as simple as the long string of picks in between turns causing the owner to surmise that the only way to get two top options at a position is to double dip. Full disclosure and irony alert: Andrew and I didn’t finish the mock either, but I don’t consider us hypocrites. I was willing and motivated to participate in the draft for as long as I felt the exercise remained useful, which would have been until the end had three or fewer owners left. But by round 15 more than half the teams were on autodraft, so we logged off too. I just didn’t see the point in continuing a fruitless activity through completion for the sake of a principle that wouldn’t be effectively communicated to anybody. So, I chose to do something productive and take a walk to grab some beer for the gold medal hockey game. Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:21am Tuesday, March 02, 2010What to make of David WrightI've read a couple interesting tidbits lately on David Wright—one of fantasy's biggest disappointments in 2009&mdash and wanted to put some of my thoughts out there on his 2010 value. Don't write off Citi so quickly
The first thing I read was from Ron Shandler in his weekly Baseball HQ e-mail: Oddly, Wright is the only one of the three where there are questions about his underlying skill. What happened to the power? It wasn't CitiField—he hit as many HRs there as he did on the road. Was it the lack of lineup protection? Was something else going on? I don't think we can write off CitiField so quickly, and especially not because he "hit as many HRs there as he did on the road." While we can use this line of reasoning as part of an argument that CitiField is a neutral HR park*, we can't use it for individual hitters. Here's what I mean: +------+--------------+---------+---------+ | YEAR | HITTER | HOME HR | AWAY HR | +------+--------------+---------+---------+ | 2008 | David Wright | 21 | 12 | | 2009 | David Wright | 5 | 5 | +------+--------------+---------+---------+ Sure, Wright hit the same number of homers in Citi as he did on the road last year, but you have to have something to compare that to—namely the previous season—if your argument is that Wright lost power. And in 2008, Wright hit nine extra home runs at Shea Stadium than he did on the road. So if anything, it appears that Citi did indeed sap a good portion of Wright's power, relatively speaking. *Citi Field, according to David Gassko's park factor methodology, shows a true HR/FB factor of 1.004 (after properly regressing to the mean). So, essentially, Citi Field is a neutral HR park on the aggregate level, although since we only have one year of data this can obviously change, and parks also affect individual hitters differently, so we can't use this as a blanket statement. Opposite field hittingThe second thing that caught my attention popped up yesterday. Apparently, Mets hitters were instructed to hit the ball to the opposite field by former Assistant GM Tony Bernazard. The data backs this up, as the Mets went from fifth-lowest in the majors in Opposite Field Percentage in 2008 (17.7%) to the highest in the majors in 2009 (22.75%). The split is even more extreme for David Wright: +------+--------------+--------------+ | YEAR | HITTER | Opp. Field % | +------+--------------+--------------+ | 2008 | David Wright | 17.7 | | 2009 | David Wright | 26.0 | +------+--------------+--------------+ While this looks condemning, let's go back even further: +------+--------------+--------------+ | YEAR | HITTER | Opp. Field % | +------+--------------+--------------+ | 2005 | David Wright | 22.2 | | 2006 | David Wright | 23.3 | | 2007 | David Wright | 22.7 | | 2008 | David Wright | 17.7 | | 2009 | David Wright | 26.0 | +------+--------------+--------------+ Now 2008 looks like the outlier (although 2009 is still quite a bit higher than any other season). You could make up any number of stories as to why Wright's numbers look like this, the easiest being random variation and regression—although perhaps that's too simplistic. Let's go a little deeper and break it down by just outfield flies: +------+--------------+-----------------+ | YEAR | HITTER | FB Opp. Field % | +------+--------------+-----------------+ | 2007 | David Wright | 31.8 | | 2008 | David Wright | 27.0 | | 2009 | David Wright | 45.9 | +------+--------------+-----------------+ Now it looks like maybe there is something to this whole Bernazard thing. Wright's 2009 rate is much, much higher than 2007 or 2008 (sorry, I don't have the 2005 or 2006 data). It's hard to say how much of all this is random and how much is real without running in-depth tests, but what we can say is that Wright was definitely hitting to the opposite field more in 2009 than in the past, particularly on his fly balls (which are really what matter when it comes to home runs). To me, those fly ball numbers look far too extreme to write off as predominantly luck, especially in light of yesterday's news. Wright's approach and Citi FieldAfter researching this opposite field stuff, I e-mailed our good friend Greg Rybarczyk of HitTracker to see if he could validate a theory of mine. Earlier in the offseason, Greg had said that Wright would have hit nine extra home runs in Shea Stadium that were robbed by Citi Field. As you can see in this image (constructed by Greg for an article by our friend Tristan Cockcroft at ESPN),  the biggest difference in dimensions between Citi Field and Shea Stadium is in right field. So if David Wright (a right-handed hitter who hits most of his HRs to LF) is hitting more balls to opposite field (RF) than ever before, it makes sense that he's losing home runs. Right field in Citi is cavernous!Not only is it more difficult (generally speaking) to hit home runs to the opposite field (you get more of your body weight and power behind balls you pull), but for Wright, this is compounded by the fact that the opposite field fences are deeper than the pull field fences! Greg was kind enough to provide us data on Wright's nine lost home runs, and sure enough, right field was a big culprit. +-------+--------+ | FIELD | ROBBED | +-------+--------+ | LF | 1 | | LCF | 1 | | CF | 3* | | RCF | 3 | | RF | 1 | +-------+--------+*Important to note that of the three CF home runs, all struck the wall above the 8 foot level, and would have been homers in 2010 when the fences will be lowered. So my question now becomes, David Wright, will you continue hitting all these balls to opposite field, or will you adjust your style to best take advantage of Citi Field (at least in terms of HRs) and start pulling the ball more? We can only hope for Wright's 2008 approach, but honestly, it's impossible to say with any kind of certainty which David Wright we'll see in 2010. Call to actionIf there are any beat writers or anyone attending Spring Training reading this, I'd be very interested in hearing what Wright makes of the whole opposite-field strategy, how it works in Citi Field, and (most importantly) what he plans on doing in 2010. Concluding thoughtsPersonally, I doubt I'll be taking David Wright in any drafts this year. Despite all the questions surrounding him (I didn't even mention his eight-point jump in strikeout rate!), he's still being drafted 14th overall according to Mock Draft Central. That just seems too high for me. Even if he changes his approach back to his 2008 style, Citi Field will still prevent him from getting back to his 2007-2008 HR levels, and his strikeout rate (and extremely inflated BABIP) is very worrisome. Posted by Derek Carty at 5:41am Will Brett Gardner perform in pinstripes?
This offseason the Yankees did not sign Matt Holliday to a seven-year, $120 million contract, nor did they try to lure in Jason Bay with a four-year, $66 million deal. They would not even let incumbent left fielder Johnny Damon sniff at a deal more than one year that paid over $6 million per. Forgoing the traditional Yankee way of paying the biggest name the most money, the Yankees seem content to let 2005 third-round pick Brett Gardner patrol their left field for somewhere in the neighborhood of $400,000. It is not my place to determine whether it is the right move from a team standpoint but since the Yankees are opting to give Gardner plenty of at-bats in 2010, as fantasy owners we might as well look at what Gardner can offer to fantasy teams with those at-bats. First, a look at his past numbers: +------+-------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | Year | Level | Age | AB | R | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | +------+-------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ | 2007 | AA | 23 | 197 | 41 | 0 | 17 | 17 | 0.294 | | 2007 | AAA | 23 | 181 | 37 | 1 | 9 | 21 | 0.260 | | 2008 | AAA | 24 | 341 | 68 | 3 | 32 | 37 | 0.296 | | 2008 | MLB | 24 | 127 | 18 | 0 | 16 | 13 | 0.228 | | 2009 | MLB | 25 | 248 | 48 | 3 | 23 | 26 | 0.270 | +------+-------+-----+-----+----+----+-----+----+-------+ As you can see, Gardner has progressed nicely up to the major league level, never becoming too overmatched at any level along the way. Thanks to good plate discipline and contact ability (something we will look into further later), Gardner was able to maintain respectable batting averages, and after an uninspiring major league debut in 2008, Gardner showed he has the tools to stick around the majors with his 2009 performance. Speed+------+-------+------+ | Year | Level | SB% | +------+-------+------+ | 2007 | AA | 81.0 | | 2007 | AAA | 87.5 | | 2008 | AAA | 80.4 | | 2008 | MLB | 92.9 | | 2009 | MLB | 83.9 | +------+-------+------+ Of course what sticks out the most are Gardner's stolen base totals—especially that 37-steal mark he posted in Triple-A in 2008. On the right is a chart of his stolen base success rates, showing he has the ability to steal bases efficiently and therefore accumulate steals quickly. Also working in his favor are his tendencies to hit singles and draw a fair amount of walks. What these singles and walks do is put Gardner on first base often—as opposed to second base after a double or the dugout after a strikeout—which puts him in prime stealing position. The more opportunities you have to steal, the more stolen bases you'll be able to attempt, and the more successful you'll be. Given almost a full season of at-bats, Gardner should have little problem breaking 30 steals and I feel most likely he will steal around 40 bases. Clearly Gardner is an elite base stealer, but without enough skill in the other aspects of baseball even the fastest of players begin to lose playing time (a la Scott Podsednik). So how do Gardner's other skills stack up? PowerIn the power department Gardner is obviously lacking, even in gap power. And since no amount of short right-field porch can save him, Gardner's home run potential is capped at a measly six home runs. Even without any power game to speak of Gardner can still provide solid fantasy production, most easily if his batting average stays in the .270s or above. For that reason, let's take a look at his plate discipline stats. Plate disciplineTo learn these stats or for a refresher on them click here.
From the looks of this table, Gardner has the plate discipline of a polished hitter, one certainly capable of posting batting averages in the .270s and most likely even higher. Despite average judgment in deciding which pitches to swing at, Gardner is excellent at making contact with all pitches, both inside and out of the strike zone. With his generally passive approach at the plate he draws his fair share of walks and has done well at cutting back on the number of strikeouts pitchers get on him. Coupling his good approach at the plate with his ability to hit the ball on the ground and run—a great recipe for BABIP success—I would expect his BABIP to rise from his 2009 mark of .311 to his CHONE-projected BABIP of .324. When you factor these things together, I see the picture of a .290 and possibly .300 hitter forming, and certainly not one below .270. Final thoughtsSumming the parts together, Gardner is a player I see capable of posting a line of 85 runs, four home runs, 60 RBIs, 40 steals, and a .290 batting average. Call me optimistic, but looking at Gardner's skill set and also players he has aptly been compared to like Nyjer Morgan, I feel that line is within Gardner's limits. Even with Randy Winn applying some pressure in terms of playing time, as long as Gardner does not stumble out of the gate I feel he will secure for himself the lion's share of starts in left field. And although he is slated to bat last in the Yankee lineup, with Nick Swisher or Robinson Cano in front of him and Derek Jeter behind him, batting ninth in that lineup will provide similar run and RBI opportunities to batting second in many other lineups. Currently Gardner's ADP over at Mock Draft Central is 333 and he is going undrafted in most drafts. In Yahoo's preseason ranks he ranked as the 83rd outfielder, behind plenty of players I feel he will outproduce in 2010, including Jermaine Dye, Mark Teahen, and Conor Jackson to name a few. So at the moment he is flying under most people's radars. Gardner probably won't find his way on teams in shallow mixed leagues, but in deeper mixed leagues and AL-only leagues he makes a solid late-round outfield option with elite stolen base potential. Posted by Paul Singman at 5:14am Monday, March 01, 2010Clone Wars: Dexter Fowler and Carl Crawford While Crawford is a great player, he does lack plate discipline. He has a good contact rate, but with a career walk percentage of only 5.2 percent his career OBP sits at .332. That is average at best and a strong reason why this great speedster has only surpassed 100 runs twice in his career. If he could supply a .350-plus OBP he would be much more valuable. Fowler, on the other hand, has shown he knows how to take a walk and that will only make him better with each passing year. His walk rate last year was 12.9 percent giving him plenty of chances to steal and score with a .363 OBP even though he showed he was a bit of a free swinger with a 26.8 percent strikeout rate. While the better OBP will help Fowler steal bases and score runs, he won't have the average that Crawford does. So if you play in a 5x5 league with batting average, you can expect Fowler to continue to hit around the .270 mark. He might improve a bit, but he'll never be the .300 guy that Crawford can be. For power, Fowler has to grow into his body. Crawford also hit only five homers in his first full year. Fowler has the makeup to hit more and playing in Colorado is still beneficial. It's unlikely he reaches the 15-plus level of Crawford in 2010, but down the road he should. The reason you go to either of these guys is speed. Fowler stole 27 bags last year and Crawford was able to swipe 60. Crawford has swiped 50 or more bags in all but two of his full seasons. Fowler doesn't appear to have those wheels, but with growth and practice he could be looking at 40 to 50 a season. According to the Bill James speed score, they compare really well on the bases. Crawford was at his lowest in 2009 with a 7.7 speed score. Likely a fluke, but it was essentially equal to the 7.6 score for Fowler. Again Folwer is likely a step back, but is only one year into his career while Crawford is going to be 29 this season. This pick is a similar grouping and not really a direct "clone" choice. I don't expect Fowler to be in the Crawford value range in 2010, but for draft or auction cost Fowler might be the better bet for your limited-power speedster. I can't see paying top dollar for the Crawford- or Jacoby Ellsbury-type when you can get Fowler or Nyjer Morgan, Michael Bourn or Dernard Span. Speaking of Span, he might make the best comparable to Fowler. Span has the best plate discipline and contact of the group, while his OBP of .392 should make sure he scores 100 or more runs in 2010. With Crawford going around No. 17 and Fowler going 251 you can see why it's just as well you wait for the Colorado Speedster. Span fits in right in the middle at 121 ADP and would make another great choice. If you can collect one of these speedsters for 2010 you should be making an excellent choice and making solid ground in your steals category. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
