THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Josh Smolow at 4:11am

2011 aversion all stars: part I

Since I started writing about fantasy baseball for The Hardball Times, I’ve tried to stay within the friendly confines that have been set before me. I have avoided the feather ruffling, if you will. Well, it's time to shake things up a bit. Be forewarned, two of the four players on this list are no doubt hall-of-famers. Some of these guys I have rostered over the years, and they played pivotal roles in my championships.

Without further ado, it’s time for Part I in “Ben’s Aversion All-Stars” (aka The Hate List).

Mariano Rivera RP NYY- Rivera stands alone atop the list of the greatest closers in the history of Major League Baseball. His cut fastball can be argued as the most spectacular pitch ever. With his unwavering intensity and impeccable control, Rivera set the bar for all the future relievers that would follow him.

With all that said, Rivera is dead to me. Upon his headstone will be many great accomplishments, but a member of my fantasy team will not be one of them. Something tells me that Brian Cashman knows the end is nearer than people think. With the Rafael Soriano bailout plan in place, Cashman is revealing that Rivera’s swan song is upon us.

At 41, Rivera is finally wearing down. I must say he pitched well through injuries in 2010, but there are still kinks in the metal of the “Hammer of God.” His second-half splits show a rise in ERA to 2.60. It’s also time to talk about that famed cutter that has been on a downward decline since 2005 (93 MPH) to 2010 (91.1). This decline in velocity could explain the striekouts per nine innings (6.8 K/9) regression that was his worst in four years. I’m not a Rivera hater or detractor, but if there was ever a time that I would pass on Mo, that time is now.

Adrian Beltre 3B TEX- In 2004, Beltre made us all believers. From 2005 to 2009, he made us forget. In 2010, he made us believers again. Now that it’s 2011, it’s time to forget Beltre.

I know that sounds a little harsh, and it probably is. But I remember what happened in Seattle. Nagging injuries and general frustration haunted Beltre. The arrival in Boston offered him a fresh start, and you can’t blame the guy for taking advantage of it.

Beltre, now a Texas Ranger, is traditionally a pull-hitting right-hander. Upon further review, all his home runs in 2010 were in ballparks that favored a right-handed hitter better than Arlington (with the exception of the one he hit in Texas). The home run Beltre hit at AT&T was to left-center field, which again favors him better than his new home in Texas.

His .339 BABIP suggests that his .321 BA is destined to correct itself. His speed is gone; so you can take that out of his bag of tricks. After you adjust for home runs, batting average, lack of speed, and his full wallet, expect a regression to 2008 levels with a slightly better BA, something like .279 BA/24 HR/80 RBI/3 SB/75 R.

Again, this is all assuming he stays on the field and gets healthy, pain-free at-bats. All I am saying is that losing out on one of the big-five third basemen should not make you rush into Beltre (50 ADP). I would roster him if he was cheap enough, but I sincerely doubt that he will be undervalued.

Focus on Aramis Ramirez (102.98 ADP) or Pablo Sandoval (160.51 ADP), whom you can get in later rounds. Pedro Alvarez (85.56 ADP) could also be an interesting play if you are willing to live with the batting average uncertainty.

Derek Jeter SS NYY- You know there are people in certain circles that proclaim Derek Jeter as the greatest player in the storied history of the Yankees. So Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Mickey Mantle, move along because Jeter is king of the Bronx (insert tongue in cheek).

I will give Jeter his fair credit. He is one of the top five shortstops in MLB history that stayed at shortstop throughout their careers. He is also a great Yankee, and can be considered the starting SS on their all-time team.

We here at The Hardball Times recently held our first mock draft of 2011. In it, we found that middle infielders are going to be at a premium. Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins...then we saw Derek Jeter roll off the board to Jeffrey Gross with the 40th overall selection.

I’m not saying that Jeter doesn’t offer a decent line for a shortstop. Taking into account his 2nd half demise, I’m projecting an optimistic line of .285 BA/11 HR/75 RBI/14 SB/103 R. That’s decent, right? But is it that much different than what Alexei Ramirez offers you at a cheaper price?

For that matter, is it that much different from Starlin Castro, Stephen Drew, Tsuyoshi Nishioka, or even Ian Desmond?

These are valid questions because Jeter isn’t getting any younger, and to grab him as the 40th overall selection means you are bypassing ace-level pitchers and gobs of talented players that will give substantially more fantasy value (Kendry Morales, Andre Ethier, Jason Heyward, etc…).

As for me, I’ll wait, because fantasy championships are won by balancing statistics over all your players. If Jeter’s perceived value is too high (which it normally is), then you pass, grab Kendry Morales, and wait for Stephen Drew to fall to you in the eighth. Adapt to succeed.

Grady Sizemore OF CLE- Oh, Grady, oh, Grady, wherefore art thou, Grady? His five tools draw us in like the smell of bacon on the stove in the morning, but Grady’s sizzle has, for lack of a better word, fizzled.

Forgive his lack of home runs in 140 plate appearances of an injury-riddled 2010 season. He supposedly had successful microfracture surgery on his knee. For those of you who are unfamiliar with microfracture surgery, you should read up on how it affects our friends in the NBA. It lingers.

So let’s assume that Sizemore sees his stolen bases fall by 30 percent or so. How about a round number of 20 steals? Picture a return in power from zero home runs in 2010 and 18 in 2009 to another round number of 20 home runs. So Sizemore is a 20/20 guy again.

What did we forget? Yes, we forget that pesky batting average. Sizemore has struggled with his BA for his entire career. To believe that he will be any better than his career averages is wishful thinking. If anything, I’d project a .250 BA at best.

So the greatest Grady Sizemore that you can allow yourself to project is .250 BA/20 HR/20 SB. He was the 83rd selection in our mock and 97.8 ADP on Mock Draft Central. I can’t live with a ceiling that low on any of my top 15 picks. I’d be interested to see how many of those five tools he’ll be able to show in 2011.

Leave him alone. Let one of his Grady’s Ladies gobble him up. If you want this skill set, wait a hundred picks (ten rounds) and grab Drew Stubbs. He’ll be better anyways.

Stay tuned next Monday for the next four in my fantasy doghouse. Hopefully this list will show you that it’s not all roses in the draft. You have to be smart. You must not only know the guys you like, but you must also know the guys you don't like. Knowing the guys you don't like will allow you to strategize better and make those impulse picks count. Adapting to succeed requires a thorough knowledge and idea of all the players available to you whether you love ‘em or hate ‘em.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 4:10am

Friday, January 28, 2011

Breaking down the mock draft: rounds 1-3

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011.

They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder.

We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over the next four weeks, each of the participants to the draft will provide insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below.

Round 1

Pick No. 1 (1 overall): Hanley Ramirez
Preseason projection: .312 AVG, 25 HR, 33 SB, 108 R, 80 RBI, 658 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

I came into this draft really wanting to shore up my middle infield (especially with the shortage of quality shortstops) and figured since I wouldn't be picking again until No. 24, I should grab an elite player at a scarce position. I'm confident that Hanley should post an excellent BA and swipe 30+ bags but I am a little worried about his decrease in power. His isolated power score has been dropping for three straight seasons (.239 in '08; .201 in '09; .175 last season). This season I don't see him hitting quite as many ground balls (51 percent last season); his previous flyball and line drive numbers should return as he enters his age 27 season.

Pick No. 2 (2 overall): Albert Pujols
Preseason projection: .327 AVG, 43 HR, 11 SB, 120 R, 126 RBI, 694 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

As the owner of the second pick, I was going to select whomever wasn't taken between Hanley Ramirez and Albert Pujols. As it turned out, Vincent Carmela selected Ramirez, leaving me the player I'd have selected first overall if I had the pick. An argument can be made for position scarcity making Hanley more valuable, but it's not one I'm going to buy. Lately, those leading the position scarcity argument will say something like, “Ramirez, paired with the 12th best first baseman will outproduce Pujols and the 12th best shortstop.” To which I'd reply, when did selecting Pujols prevent an owner from selecting a player at a scarce position in the upcoming rounds? What's wrong with a pairing of Pujols and Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Ryan Zimmerman, Kevin Youkilis, or another upper-echelon talent at a scarce position?

Assuming Pujols stays healthy, he is going to demolish Ramirez from a strictly statistical standpoint at season's end, and to me, that's the important thing with your first round pick. Quietly under-appreciated is the fact that in the last two years Pujols has swiped a combined 30 bases, 14 last year, and 16 in 2009, adding to what is already an explosive line likely to include gaudy runs and RBI totals along with 40+ home runs and an average well north of .300. Sign me up for those totals as my team anchor.

Pick No. (3 overall): Miguel Cabrera
Preseason projection: .322 AVG, 37 HR, 4 SB, 105 R, 126 RBI, 685 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

This was a very straightforward pick for me. Pujols, Ramirez, and Cabrera are top three locks as far as I'm concerned. I would have preferred Hanley to solidify my shortstop spot with the head of the class at that position, but was more than content with settling for Cabrera instead. Like Pujols, Cabrera has been a hallmark for first round consistency and he posted his best season in his age 27 year in 2010 (111 R, 38 HR, 126 RBI, .328 AVG, .294 ISO). A year older, there's no reason to believe Cabrera won't produce first round worthy numbers, at the very least.

Pick No. 4 (4 overall) Evan Longoria
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 31 HR, 13 SB, 102 R, 115 RBI, 570 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

I was torn between Longoria and my boy Troy Tulowitzki (who ended up going the pick later). I "accidentally" drafted Tulo in my snake league first last year over Chase Utley (because I thought Utley would have been picked before I got to him and I was trigger happy on Tulo) but it was a blessing in disguise. I sort of regret this Longoria pick (mainly because of who I ended up with at shortstop and my other third baseman) but throughout this draft I just thought, "Who will end up higher in that Player Rater?"

As much as I love the Rockies shortstop and as deep as I think third base is at this year, I just think Tulo is too much of a risk (especially because of his health) and Longoria is just rock solid and started stealing bases last year as well. Along with the fact that he excels at the other four categories), that makes him my top pick.

Pick No. 5 (5 overall): Troy Tulowitzki
Preseason projection: .300 AVG, 31 HR, 15 SB, 98 R, 102 RBI, 631 PA
 Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I was happily surprised that Tulo was available at the five pick—I figured I’d end up with Longoria, which would have been fine, but I was delighted to get Tulo; I might have even taken him at No. 3. I think shortstop is by far the weakest position in this year’s draft—after Hanley, Tulo and Reyes, you drop down to Rollins and Drew, which is a huge statistical (and risk) dropoff in my book. So position scarcity ruled the day.

I like to make sure my first round pick will do something for me in all scoring categories, and Tulo will give me solid across-the-board numbers, with about 100 runs and RBI, 30 HRs, a .300 average, and 10-15 steals. I am a little concerned that he will get pitched around to some extent—the Rockies lineup didn’t improve much over the winter, and I expect CarGo to regress a bit statistically this year. And Tulo may not have one insane month like September last year (which elevated his overall stats), but he is so solid overall it was an easy choice. At the tender age of 26, Tulo actually has upside from his outstanding line of 2010. And who can argue with your top pick playing half his games at Coors?

Pick No. 6 (6 overall): Robinson Cano
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 24 HR, 3 SB, 95 R, 99 RBI, 669 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Once I found out I had the sixth pick in the draft, I immediately targeted Cano. I locked in my selection, but that came at a price: Joey Votto. Soon after clicking the "draft" button, I wished I'd been paying more attention and taken Votto, whom I had a couple spots higher on my draft board. No matter, because Cano is still a top-level talent. Cano's in his peak seasons, and has a great lineup spot while playing for a great Yankees'squad.

Pick No. 7 (7 overall): Joey Votto.
Preseason pProjection: .319 AVG, 33 HR, 13 SB, 96 R, 105 RBI, 640 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

My selection of Votto was simply a personal preference. I only considered Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Braun, and Votto at this selection. CarGo had an amazing season in 2010, but those strikeouts scare me. He’s still 30/30 capable. I think Braun is going to progress in 2011 to new heights. He’s my preseason NL MVP. So why did I choose Votto? He's is safe and consistent and just what I like with a first round pick. He will hit for average and home runs, and even showed a slight ability to steal even though he’s not extremely fast.

Pick No. (8 overall): David Wright
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 27 HR, 20 SB, 99 R, 104 RBI, 683 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I believe that your first round pick needs to be reliable. David Wright is just that. You may not know exactly what you’ll get, considering how injury- prone his teammates have been, but he’s a five-category player. I was targeting either Wright or Longoria, depending on which one fell. Third base is a very weak position this year, so locking up one of the top four (which include Zimmerman and Alex Rodriguez) was my goal once I was given the eighth overall pick. Wright struck out a career high 160 times last year, but he was also asked to “do it all” without Jason Bay, Reyes and Carlos Beltran around for different portions of the season. He was probably pressing too much. A return to a .300 average could occur with a reduction in strikeouts. A 30-100-100-25 line is certain attainable as well.

Pick No. 9 (9 overall): Chase Utley
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 13 SB, 99 R, 95 RBI, 625 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

I was hoping to get Wright. Unfortunately, I was not so lucky, so I took Utley, my highest ranked second baseman for 2011. Despite his having a down seven months since the start of September of 2009, I expect big things from him this season. Even last year, when injuries limited him to 115 games and his worst ISO showing since his first season in the majors, Utley still hit 16 bombs and stole 13 bases while getting caught only twice. That amounts to a rate of 21.5 home runs and 17.5 stolen bases per 155 games. Utley has played 147, 160, 132, 159, 156, and 115 games over the past six years, and I do not expect him to play less than 145-150 games in 2011.

Some might call Cano the best second basemen for 2011, but given Utley's comparable power, comparable R/RBI expectations and superior stolen base abilities (Utley stole more bases in 2009 than Cano has in his career), the difference in batting average between the two (Utley has a career .293 mark, Cano .309) seems less important than most tend to emphasize. Sure, Cano is on the better side of 30 (Utley's 33), but that does not mean Utley does not return to his 2007-2009 form this season. Call me crazy for taking Utley here, given the availability of superior "totals" guys like Ryan Braun and Matt Holliday. I draft based on scarcity and the difference between Utley and the next tier of second basemen warranted the "reach."

Pick No. 10 (10 overall): Adrian Gonzalez
Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB, 92 R, 102 RBI, 687 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Best available infielder. Unfortunately, the likes of Wright, Cano and Utley weren't available, which wasn't a surprise. I considered Mark Teixeira, but I'm more confident in the batting average A-Gon will provide. I acknowledge that I'm picking a first baseman in a deep class and taking on the risk involved given his shoulder surgery, but in his setting and lineup‐and with another selection in five picks to back myself up‐I took the chance on someone who approached or reached 40 homers even when he played home games at PETCO Park. I'm not saying he'll approach 60, but opponents will find it hard to pitch around him now. Plus, first base isn't cavernous. It has its limits. Power early. Power early.

Pick No. 11 (11 Overall) Carlos Gonzalez
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 28 HR, 22 SB, 101 R, 101 RBI, 626 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I was not here for the first four rounds of the draft because the Jets surprising victory over the Pats just before the draft caused unexpected celebrations, so these first five picks were MDC's and not mine. Nevertheless I'll add my thoughts on the players handed to me. CarGo is certainly a controversial player this year with a lot of attention drawn his way due to his gaudy 2010 and the expectation of regression. I already covered Gonzalez in this article early in the offseason and I stand by my conclusion that you are probably overpicking him in round 1, with Wright or Braun as better options.

Pick No. 12 (12 overall): Josh Hamilton
Preseason projection: .324 AVG, 26 HR, 7 SB, 80 R, 91 RBI, 525 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I couldn’t believe Gonzalez fell as far as he did, but my hopes were squashed when he was taken right before me. Coming so close to getting the five-category stud hurt, but picking the 2010 AL MVP in Hamilton wasn’t a bad consolation prize. Injury is the obvious concern here, but when he plays there’s no doubt he is one of the elite hitters in baseball. He batted an absurd .380 and rocked 28 home runs over 424 at-bats from May 1 until he went down with fractures in his rib cage in September. The .390 BABIP likely means his average will drop some, but considering his career average in the “luck” category is .344, it won’t be much of a falloff. Factor in a much improved ISO, a high-powered lineup and a homer-friendly ballpark and you have a guy who I think will exceed these projections and post closer to 30 bombs and 100 RBIs while maintaining a high batting average.

Round 2

Pick No. 1 (13 overall): Ryan Howard
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 43 HR, 2 SB, 98 R, 133 RBI, 682 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini -- Bruno Boys

While I would have liked to have locked down some talent at thinner positions, I decided to stick with power and took Howard at the turn. The Philadelphia Phillies' first baseman’s average line was 102/50/143 over his first four full seasons but an ankle injury sustained at the beginning of August marred what could have been a fifth big year with an even better batting average‐he was at .292 before going down. He wasn’t the same after that, hitting just .231 in the last 38 games after his return, but he still managed to contribute eight homers to reach the 30-plus plateau. Now that he and the rest of the Phillies lineup is healthy again, you can expect a return to the 40 home run, 130 RBI range and perhaps even a .280 average to go with it.

Pick No. 2 (14 Overall) Mark Teixeira
Preseason projection: .282 AVG, 36 HR, 1 SB, 106 R, 120 RBI, 698 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

The next player assigned to my team by MDC's rankings was Teixeira, who is someone I certainly would not take at this point. 2010 was an uninspiring year for Teixeira, undergoing his typical early-season slump that he never fully came out of. Certainly I would expect his batting average to climb back into the .290s this year as his BABIP regresses, but his mid-30s power doesn't make up for his lack of contribution in steals. He is a fairly safe pick, but I would rather take the more impactful Carl Crawford in this spot.

Pick No. 3 (15 overall): Alex Rodriguez
Preseason projection: .284, 35 HR, 10 SB, 95 R, 116 RBI, 621 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

I considered Zimmerman here, but I chose the player in the better lineup and with a more stable power history. A-Rod needed a surge to get to 30 last year, and yes, he's slowing down, but he still takes advantage of his home park.

Rodriguez's lineup placement will keep his RBI potential high, but his power is less certain. Despite the groundball increase and shaky BB/K, he clubbed 19 homers after June. He doesn't rely on Yankee Stadium. Groin and calf injuries earned most of his 2010 slump blame. He still mashes right-handed pitchers. Reaching double-digit steals would be a bonus, but with his clean bill of hip health, it's more possible than it was recently. In this risky positional class, A-Rod, even in decline, remains a top hot corner option.

Pick No. 4 (16 overall): Ryan Braun
Preseason projection: .304 AVG, 33 HR, 15 SB, 108 R, 114 RBI, 689 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

In my opinion, outfield is the best source of five-category studs. While the top tier of outfielders always seems deep, the availability of five-category guys is less than 12 players deep and in a five outfield, 12-team league, outfielder scarcity is deceptive. Unless you are comfortable sitting on multiple two or three category only guys like Juan Pierre who hurt you in the categories they do not help, it is essential to grab one or two elite outfielders early in the draft.

I have Braun ranked as my No. 1 fantasy outfielder for 2011, so you must understand my surprise when he was available with the fourth pick of round two. CarGo and Hamilton were drafted ahead of Braun, which I disagree with in light of the inevitable batting average regression due to CarGo (he’s a .285-type hitter, which is still strong, but not first round material) and the health concerns with Hamilton (don't forget what happened the last time Hamilton was a first round fantasy pick). The early rounds of a baseball draft are about consistency, where Braun reigns supreme. You can’t win in the first few rounds, but you surely can lose if you stomach too much risk.

Pick No. 5 (17 overall): Carl Crawford
Preseason Projection: .300 AVG, 14 HR, 42 SB, 93 R, 71 RBI, 610 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

If Wright and Longoria were gone, I may have considered Crawford in the first round. He’s been a first rounder for nearly his entire career and is now moving to Boston, a team that scored the most runs in the AL last year. They’ve also added Adrian Gonzalez and should have a healthy Jacoby Ellsbury as well. I would have had a hard time not taking Braun instead. He slipped pretty far but was taken a pick before I took Crawford.

Crawford had career highs in runs, RBI and homers last year while playing for a contract. I don’t think anybody is expecting that again this year, but he’s always a reliable source for 45+ steals, which he’s done seven times in his career. A .300 average with 110 runs scored is almost certain while leading off for Boston. The short porch in right field could allow Crawford to come close to 20 home runs again and his RBI should be somewhere between 80 and 90.

Pick No. 6 (18 overall): Joe Mauer
Preseason Projection: .338 AVG, 15 HR, 3 SB, 93 R, 87 RBI, 615 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Going catcher this early is not normally the strategy I like to use, but I was heartbroken when Braun and Crawford fell off the board the two prior picks. So I used the best player available route and pulled the trigger on Mauer. I believe the power gains in 2009 were real. I’m not saying he’ll hit 28 home runs, but I like Bill James' stat projection for Mauer and would be pleased if he put those kind of numbers up.

Pick No. 7 (19 overall): Matt Holliday
Preseason projection: .313 AVG, 28 HR, 11 SB, 103 R, 109 RBI, 670 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Holliday has always been a favorite of mine, and he seems to be undervalued on draft day. He may not hit the most home runs, steal the most bases or have the highest average, but Holliday is an all-around fantasy force who contributes to every category. I actually had Holliday as high as seventh on my board entering the draft, so locking down your seventh rated player in the middle of the second round is fantastic. Also, seeing that we were drafting (the ungodly number of) five outfielders, I thought it was important to get one early. Looking back, I regret not going with one of the mashers at first base, but I couldn't pass on getting a top-10 player in the second round.

Pick No. 8 (20 overall): Ryan Zimmerman
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 29 HR, 5 SB, 96 R, 102 RBI, 663 PA  
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

Substitute Zimmerman for Tulo in my first round pick analysis. Solid player; you know what you’re going to get from him. A year more mature‐almost exactly the same age as Tulo (they are actually born 12 days apart). Similar numbers both in terms of last year’s actual and this year’s projections. I believe Zimm has not yet hit his peak, and that there is actually upside to the projections, without tremendous downside risk.

I see third base as weak this year‐I think there are for really solid “sure thing” third basemen, and with Longoria, Wright and A-Rod all gone, I wanted to get one before the dropoff. By the way, I’m now looking at my lineup after two rounds and thinking (a) Ipassed on Prince Fielder‐the last real first base bopper‐to get Zimm, so I’d better get a good one before they’re all gone; and (b) I’m a little light in the stolen base category already, and going need to make that up somewhere. I’m already thinking about what round I can get Pierre or Michael Bourn.

Pick No. 9 (21 Overall) Roy Halladay
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 190 K, 245 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

As deep as pitcher is (and I think it is the deepest position this year sans AL-only leagues) I couldn't pass up the best pitcher out there. Even if he doesn't end up being No. 1 on the Player Rater, he'll be top five and absolutely worth a high draft pick. Essentially every single time (excluding injuries) the No. 1 player at every position in every fantasy sport will be worth the pick. Because even if that player isn't the best , he's still not risky because he'll always put up good fantasy numbers and not bust.

Pick No. 10 (22 overall): Prince Fielder
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 41 HR, 1 SB, 100 R, 112 RBI, 706 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I was a couple of picks away from snagging Zimmerman to fill in the scarcer corner, but landing Fielder was a nice consolation prize. If small size patterns are to be believed, Fielder has his best seasons in odd years, which makes 2011 a good omen for Fielder to post superb numbers and for good measure, this is Prince's contract year. Weight issues and annual inconsistency aside, Fielder still managed to slug 32 round trippers and his low RBI total seems to be on the wrong side of fluky, given that Braun had a bit of an off year while the likes of Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart, and Casey McGehee blossomed.

It might seem like overkill to be drafting two elite power-hitting first basemen with the first two picks, but I felt like Fielder was the best remaining player on the board and had to be drafted. On the low end, I see Fielder hitting .270, 30-35 HR, 100 RBI and while I believe he won't replicate his 50-homer season, I can also see him having a similar season to 2009.

Pick No. 11 (23 overall): Kevin Youkilis
Bill James Preseason Projection: .294 AVG, 25 HR, 5 SB, 103 R, 93 RBI, 649 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

After selecting Pujols with my first pick, the plan was to fill the hot corner with an upper echelon player. My hope was that Zimmerman would still be on the board. Unfortunately for me Dave Chenok scooped him up at pick eight, leaving me moving on to plan B, which in this case was selecting Youkilis. To open the year, Youk will not have third base eligibility, but given that he is the starting third baseman for the Boston Red Sox this year, it won't take long for him to gain that eligibility. He was the last player in my upper tier of third baseman, meaning it was select him, or take a gamble on a riskier option later in the draft.

While it remains to be seen where Youk will be penciled into the heart of the Red Sox order, one thing is for certain: His tremendous average (over .300 each of the last three seasons) and superb on-base skills will lead to hearty run and RBI totals in a loaded lineup. A safe bet for 20 or more homeruns if he 's able to accumulate 550 plate appearances, Youkilis' final stat line will almost certainly place him in the top five at his position. The biggest knock on him is that it isn't certain he will reach that many plate appearances—he tallied only 435 last season, and in 2009 reached 588 in a season that saw him miss significant time as well. But the possibility of getting elite numbers at a top- heavy position was too much to pass up over durability concerns.

Pick No. 2 (24 overall): Shin-Soo Choo
Preseason projection: .299 AVG, 20 HR, 19 SB, 88 R, 85 RBI, 625 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

From this position, I wanted Fielder, but when that didn't happen it came down to either Choo or Matt Kemp. Usually in the second round I like to grab a high power/decent batting average guy or one of the few remaining high batting average, decent power with speed guys. I like Kemp and thought he got a bad rap last season from the Dodgers front office, but I'm not sure if he is a .250 or a .290 hitter. I feel much more confident with Choo in terms of acquiring a 20-20 outfielder with a decent batting average. I just wish he had a better supporting cast around him.

Round 3

Pick No. 1 (25 overall): Rickie Weeks
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 21 HR, 11 SB, 94 R, 61 RBI, 589 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

After taking the conservative route in my Choo over Kemp pick, one would think I would, again, play it safe and grab Dustin Pedroia over Weeks, since I was determined to get my middle infield in place. However, my unconscious disappointment in not choosing to gamble on Kemp made me reach for Weeks as the third overall second basemen taken. Don't get me wrong: Pedroia is a fine pick and should be healthy in '11. His .300+ batting average and double-digit home run/steals will make a fine addition on any fantasy team but (and this is probably No. 2 among all fantasy no-no's, so take note!) I FEEL AS THOUGH RICKIE WEEKS OWES ME!

Since 2006, I have aggressively targeted Weeks for my teams. Last season was the first time I ignored his services and you can imagine my disappointment when he started raking over the summer while staying healthy. I know Weeks does have a slight strikeout problem, but I am worried about his decreasing speed—something I suspect occurred when he sustained a major knee injury in '08. Weeks is still young (entering his age 28 season) but for him to stay healthy he may have to conserve his legs while hoping to avoid the occasional freak hand injury. I'll admit to being closer to selecting Ian Kinsler here than Pedroia but I am (like many) excited about the upcoming Brewers season and, in retrospect, my decision-making may have not been optimal.

Pick No. 2 (26 overall) Ian Kinsler
Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 20 HR, 21 SB, 98 R, 74 RBI, 609 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

This pick was one of the most difficult of the draft for me. I was torn among three players: Kinsler, Reyes and Pedroia. Each player presents his own set of risks, so I opted for the player I felt had the highest ceiling and the best blend of power and speed. It should also be noted that Kinsler's floor is fairly high as well, considering he's put up upper-echelon numbers for his position even in seasons where he has missed significant time. While drafting Kinsler means one should anticipate on him missing some time, the thought of a fully healthy season, much like Weeks had last season after years of missing time frequently, is reason to salivate.

Like my pick before him, Youkilis, Kinsler's lineup slot remains a bit of a mystery going into the season. Regardless of where he hits, he'll have an opportunity to pile up solid counting stats while being a near lock, assuming 120 or more games played (a feet he's accomplished every year except last year) to total 40 plus home runs and stolen bases combined (he compiled an eye-popping 31 homers and 31 steals in 2009) in a loaded Rangers lineup that plays half its games in one of the more favorable hitters parks. Assuming Kinsler's 2009 batted ball profile is an outlier (54.0 fly ball percentage), I'd expect him to hit over .280 (at the expense of his career high 31 HR's).

Pick No. 3 (27 overall): Matt Kemp
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 27 HR, 24 SB, 98 R, 95 RBI, 671 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I was in a bit of a quandary with this pick. Had this been an actual league draft, I would have taken either Tim Lincecum or Felix Hernandez, but as an experiment, I decided to forgo both and see what kind of pitching staff I could come up with in later rounds. This left me mulling over three players: Kemp, Pedroia and Reyes. I felt that while Reyes is an above-average shortstop, his upside is tempered if his baserunning attempts are limited (I see him going 40 steals tops). While Pedroia should pick up where he left off before his injury last season, my inner Dodgers fan provoked me into taking Kemp instead.

Kemp underwhelmed in 2010, namely in his sub-par batting average (.249) and a relatively low stolen base count (19), but that belies the fact that Kemp had posted a career-high 28 home runs and a .201 ISO. Historically, Kemp had generally been a high average, but in 2010, he hit a sub-standard .295 BABIP. To a Dodgers fan, it seemed like Kemp was a bit unlucky in some well-hit fly balls not falling as extra base hits. In addition, it seemed like he was caught stealing on a number of borderline calls. I can't say for certain if his speed score declined, but I would expect Kemp's stolen base total to take a bounce up (25, reasonably). Couple this with a positive correction to his batting average and a rebound seems in order for the 26-year-old Kemp.

Pick #4 (28 Overall) Dustin Pedroia
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 17 HR, 16 SB, 108 R, 77 RBI, 702 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

In fantasy, guys who steal bases, hit home runs, have a high average and play on a great offense are a great commodity. Pedroia's health doesn't worry me at all and he's my No. 2 second baseman (behind Robinson Cano). Sure, nothing he does is flashy and he's not really "great" at any one thing, but he's above average in all categories (except maybe RBIs). At a position that's decently scarce, Pedroia poses little to no risk and can help you in all five categories- two things that make me happy with my third-round selection.

 Pick No. 5 (29 overall): Jose Reyes
Preseason projection: .286 AVG, 11 HR, 36 SB, 85 R, 52 RBI, 572 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

  This was an opportunistic pick. I was sitting on Pedroia—both because I think he’s in store for a monster year, and because I like to fill up on middle infielders early because of position scarcity. Wouldn’t you know it: Adam Kaplan grabbed him with the pick before mine. My heart sank. I’m still needing that bopper first baseman, and I thought about Justin Morneau, but he’s kind of a wild card coming back from a concussion, and I don’t want to lose with a high upside/high risk pick in an early round. I also considered Nelson Cruz, but there are so many outfielders to be had, and I worry about Cruz’s ability to stay healthy.

It suddenly occurred to me that with Reyes, I could potentially have a lot of what I’d have with Pedroia—at best similar production overall, and at worst I’ve kept up on runs and steals. I feel that last year it took a while for Reyes to ease his way back into things—his second half splits were better than his first half—and he still has a lot of potential upside at age 27. He has shown power in the past, and could have upside in the power categories (though I’ll probably take the under on his stolen base projection just because of hamstring health). But I figure his hamstring and other health issues are mostly behind him. I figure the Mets are embarrassed by how last year went, and they are a talented team that will get serious under new management. Reyes is an emotional guy, and I think he got caught up in the lethargy that characterized last year’s team. Again, I feel that shortstop is the weakest position this year, and with Reyes I’ve now locked up two of the best three, which means most everyone else is going to be weak at that position.

Pick No. 6 (30 overall): Brian McCann
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 24 HR, 4 SB, 68 R, 94 RBI, 579 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

When I made this pick, I felt like one of those guys in the movies who's asking out a women at first glance: "I never do this, but..."

I rarely take a catcher early, usually waiting until most of my roster is filled. However, looking at the available talent pool, I didn't see anything else that caught my fancy. I decided to just go with McCann so I wouldn't have to worry about finding a catcher later. Plus, McCann is still just 27 when the season begins and is as consistent as they come. Adding Dan Uggla to their lineup should help McCann's RBI or run opportunities, depending on what the Braves do with their batting order.

Pick No. 7 (31 overall): Tim Lincecum
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 233 K, 207 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Again, this is not a typical move I would have made in a draft. I usually will wait on pitching. Seeing as this is an expert draft and most experts like to wait on pitchers, I adapted. Getting Lincecum in the middle of the third round felt like grand larceny to me. After struggling at the beginning of the season, he showed control gains, still struck out 200+ batters and looked amazing in the playoffs. I’m a little worried about the innings load, but he is the “Freaky Franchise” or is it “Big Time Timmy Jim”?

Pick No. 8 (32 overall): Justin Morneau
Preseason projection: .294 AVG, 27 HR, 0 SB, 81 R, 101 RBI, 573 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I was hoping to get Weeks, Reyes, Pedroia or Kinsler. None of those four made it to me. Morneau, assuming he returns healthy from his concussion, is a safe bet for 30 HR and 100 RBI. He’s a career .285 hitter, which I will take in 2011. He normally scores between 85 and 95 runs and had driven in 100+ in four consecutive seasons before getting injured last year. Morneau was batting .345 with 18 homers in half of a season in 2010. I’m expecting a return to normalcy.

Pick No. 9 (33 overall): Nelson Cruz
Preseason projection: .297 AVG, 28 HR, 18 SB, 74 R, 88 RBI, 523 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

With Reyes and Kinsler off the board, I did not want to have to reach too much for a starting shortstop or quality middle infielder. I also had no shot at a legitimate top tier third basemen with Zimmerman and A-Rod off the board. I suppose an argument could be made for newly minted Ranger Adrian Beltre (though, as I have said, third base is not a particularly shallow fantasy position). Had incecum come my way, I would have likely drafted him. However, the best all-around player just happened, again, to be an outfielder, Nelson Cruz. While Cruz is certainly a health risk, he produces enough counting stats when on the field, like Kinsler, to warrant an early round pick despite the risks he poses.

Though Cruz has played only a combined 236 games over the past two seasons, he has also hit 55 home runs and stolen 37 bases. Even last season, playing 108 games, Cruz was one of fantasy’s most valuable outfielders. I view him as capable of a .280-.285 batting average with 25 home runs and 15 stolen bases next season, even if perpetually injured like last year. Just imagine what he might do if healthy. Yeah, he’s just that good.

Pick No. 10 (34 overall): Jimmy Rollins
Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 15 HR, 25 SB, 87 R, 61 RBI, 605 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

The positional scarcity continued to kick in. Would I rather take my chances that Stephen Drew finally gives us a little extra ... or that a 30-steal player can recapture the rest of his offensive game? Is Rollins that much of a drop-off from Jose Reyes? Reyes' value is almost solely based on steals. We've seen Rollins consistently contribute in three other categoriess (batting average is not among my safe bets for him, admittedly.)

But Rollins' physical ability hasn't diminished much, and his offseason workouts focused on health and flexibility. With this year's positional class, why not grab above-average counting stats from a shortstop?

Pick No. 11 (35 overall) Victor Martinez
Preseason projection: .298 AVG, 19 HR, 1 SB, 69 R, 88 RBI, 572 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

In the third round I got another player I likely would have passed up in favor of Felix Hernandez or Dan Uggla. Martinez has been an incredibly consistent catcher over the last six seasons and has shown little signs of slowing down (other than doing less and less catching). Still I feel there is little upside to this pick and tons of potential downside, and in a 12-team mixed league with one catching spot it almost always is wise to wait for a catcher late.

Pick No. 12 (36 overall): Brandon Phillips
Preseason projection: .270 AVG, 20 HR, 17 SB, 88 R, 76 RBI, 658 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

At this point I felt I needed to fill one of the scarcer middle infield positions and went with an established veteran. It seems like he has been around forever, but he actually will turn just 30 years old this year, and since he isn’t an NFL running back this is far from a declining stage from an age standpoint.

Some will point to his falling ISO percentage and batting average as indications that he is on the downturn, but a closer look at his 2010 game log shows he was doing just fine hitting at a .290 clip until a pitched ball injured his wrist in late August. He was never the same after that, batting .198 over the last month of the season with only two home runs and admitted in late September that “It still hurts real bad.” People shouldn’t overlook that he posted a career-high contact percentage last season, and now that he is healthy he should regain one of the top two spots in the order and a top-five rank among his position.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:41am (19) Comments

Breaking down the mock draft: rounds 4-6

Round 4

Pick No. 1 (37 overall): Felix Hernandez
Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.31 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 204 K, 223 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I got the AL MVP with my first pick, and now I have the AL Cy Young winner as well. Hernandez had a ridiculous season, posting a 2.27 ERA and an 8.36 K/9 ratio over 249.2 innings despite a higher HR/FB percentage. His improvement over the years couldn’t be more regular if you dumped a bottle of Metamucil on it, with his K-rate, BB-rate, fastball velocity, and ERA all plummeting over the past three to four years and his FIP and xFIP following suit. If the Mariners could field anything better than a Little League-quality offense he would have fared much better than the 13-12 record he managed despite the lowest run support of any pitcher in the majors.

It would be insane to expect him to continue on this trend and a small regression is probably coming, but King Felix is still one of the elite pitching talents in the league and a safe bet for 200 strikeouts, making him an ideal ace for your staff.

Pick No. 2 (38 overall) Ichiro Suzuki
Preseason projection: .316 AVG, 7 HR, 30 SB, 87 R, 47 RBI, 708 PA
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

In the early fourth round, Ichiro was placed onto my team, and overall it is a solid pick. Since he is 37, it is scary to own Ichiro, but so far he has proven himself the "freak-of-nature" type that defy normal aging rules. I tend to reserve outfield for sleepers so I probably would not want to fill my second outfield slot this early in the draft and instead take Dan Uggla or maybe Adrian Beltre (who I got two rounds later).

But in terms of outfielders,if you look at the two taken before him (Matt Kemp and Nelson Cruz) and after (Andre Ethier and Justin Upton), all have more question marks than Ichiro. So if nothing else, it's a safe pick.

Pick No. 3 (39 overall): Dan Uggla
Preseason projection: .263 AVG, 31 HR, 3 SB, 96 R, 94 RBI, 666 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Come on, I know he won't have that batting average again. Though second base is deeper than many believe, I didn't mind simultaneously adding to my power base and filling my infield. Uggla has performed well in his small Turner Field sample size, and the Bravos should have a positive impact on his already growing BB/K‐the Marlins hacked and hacked and hacked.

Pick No. 4 (40 overall): Derek Jeter
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 13 HR, 17 SB, 101 R, 68 RBI, 703 PA
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

In the three years I have been publicly writing about baseball, it is rare I do not mention how shallow shortstop is. Especially in the post-steroid era, where teams are refocusing on athleticism and defense is in vogue, the offensively capable shortstop is a dying breed. To illustrate this point, check out my top 20 fantasy shortstop rankings for 2011. My sixth highest ranked shortstop, Jimmy Rollins, is projected by Oliver to hit only .239 by Oliver, and Mike Aviles, the last shortstop likely to not hurt you in the batting average category (ranked No. 12), is expected to barely crack the 10/10 plateau.

Accordingly, it was either take Jeter or Alexei Ramirez (who I correctly expected would not make it back around to me) now or be miserable with my draft and hope I nab Elvis Andrus or Starlin Castro as my primary shortstop.

Unwilling to live with the latter, I nabbed Jeter, who I think will rebound some in 2011. Although he’s old and overpaid at this point in his career, Jeter is still a somewhat fleet-footed (5.5 speed score last season), .290/10/20 capable shortstop. Oliver expects a batting average around .280, but Jeter’s 2010 xBABIP pegs him capable of a .299 batting average. Though Jeter likely won’t repeat 2009, something akin to what he did in 1997 (.291 batting average, 10 home runs, 23 stolen bases, 116 runs, 79 RBI) is not implausible because Jeter just doesn’t hit pop-ups and still plays atop one of baseball’s most potent offensive lineups.

Pick No. 5 (41 overall): Buster Posey
Preseason projection: .308 AVG, 21 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 83 RBI, 557 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

I debated between him and Justin Upton, who slipped into the fourth round. Posey may have a year like Upton did last year, but the difference is in the position scarcity. I’m not a scarcity freak, but when comparing two players you have interest in, scarcity can usually end an argument. Posey struck out only 55 times in his first major league season, so an average around .300 is certainly attainable again. He’s comparable to Brian McCann, but at this point in his career has upside in his favor. The ballpark he plays in and the lineup surrounding him will always hinder his counting numbers. At a weak position, he was worth taking when I wasn’t in love with anyone else at this juncture.

Pick No. 66 (42 overall): Andre Ethier
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 24 HR, 3 SB, 86 R, 90 RBI, 644 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

This was my favorite pick of the first four rounds. I am an Ethier fan for this year. His 2010 season could have played out so much different if he wasn’t playing the majority of it injured. Prior to that injury he was hitting .392 with 11 homers. He’s a legit value in the fourth round. I will guarantee that a .300/30/100 season is here (health permitting).

Pick No. 7 (43 overall): Jon Lester
Preseason projection: 204 IP, 14 W, 3.53 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 193 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

If you are a big believer in the Bill James projection listed above, then this pick was silly. If you're a sane, rational human being, then this pick was gold (gold, Jerry!). Lester has racked up at least 200 innings in each of the past three seasons, never winning fewer than 15 games. The Red Sox are stacked this year, so a 20-win season isn't completely out of the question. Lester also strikes out more than a batter an inning while posting above-average ground ball rates. It's hard not to like Lester this year, and he's the No. 2 two pitcher on my board.

Pick No. 8 (44 overall): Justin Upton
Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 23 SB, 92 R, 96 RBI, 632 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

So much for Justin Morneau falling to me this round. I was a little sad to see Uggla go, as I need a second baseman and I could have used some more homers. I still need that bopper first baseman, and I am beginning to realize that unless I make a play for Adam Dunn, Paul Konerko or Kendry Morales I may end up with Adam LaRoche.

But I’m also noticing that in this league I am going to be drafting ive outfielders, and the better ones are going off the board quickly, so I need to lay a claim—there will be a serviceable first baseman, I’m sure, even if it is Gaby Sanchez, and I can make up for one position with strength at all the others. I’m torn between Upton and Andrew McCutchen. I like them both. I think McCutchen is actually safer, but Upton has more upside and the potential for a more balanced line. (I just took Jose Reyes; do I need another leadoff type guy this early?) So I go with Upton, knowing that if he and his brother spent time over the winter studying and working out with one another they may both strike out 200 times next year.

Pick No. 9 (45 overall) Alex Rios
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 18 HR, 25 SB, 81 R, 77 RBI, 607 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

I had Rios in a net stolen bases league least year, and he killed me with inefficient baserunning. Luckily, I was not mock drafting in a net stolen bases league. The guy steals, hits home runs, is on my favorite team, and should be rock solid again. I looked around for some great power/speed combo guys with high batting averages and Rios fit the bill. While it does scare me that he could have a down "Alex Rios" year like he did his last year in Toronto, I don't think he will.

Now, after drafting Justin Upton in the second round last year, I should be averse to the power/speed outfielders ranked in the top 10. It seems to me that those guys tend to fluctuate between being studs and being just above average (as 2010 Upton and Matt Kemp owners can tell you). But Rios still plays for a stolen base-happy Ozzie Guillen, he still has a wonderfully homer-friendly home ball park, and he still looks good.

Pick No. 10 (46 overall): Ubaldo Jimenez
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.63 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 194 K, 216 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

I'll admit to drafting this pick based off Mock Draft Central's rankings. Jimenez was the highest ranked player on the board and, as is my tendency, I give at most five seconds to make a pick. In hindsight, Adam Wainwright would have been the better pick, but I would attribute this to offseason rust instead of my personal scrolling issues with the Mock Draft Central player interface.

Regardless, I was intent on taking an ace pitcher, as I felt that at that point of the draft, the quality of starting pitchers outweighed that of the batters (aside from McCutchen and Jason Heyward). Although Jimenez was a tad lucky in the first half of the year, he's still a bona fide stud. And although Jimenez's groundball rate decreased and his walk rate increased a touch, his K/9 took a step in the right direction and he was averaging a fastball velocity of 96 mph. With room for improvement, the Rockies ace should have a banner year in 2011.

Pick No. 11 (47 overall): Carlos Santana
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 22 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 91 RBI, 616 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

Santana was a slam dunk selection for me at the end of the fourth round. Since he was coming cheaper than more proven commodities (and rightfully so) Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann, I was happy to pick up a catcher capable of putting up numbers that may rival the elite established stars, while not paying the premium price for a position that is noteworthy for the risk of injury.

Unfortunately, Santana provides evidence of that risk of injury, missing the end of last season with a knee injury suffered in a collision at home plate. Fortunately for Santana, he suffered no structural damage, just a nasty sprain, that according to reports is healed sufficiently enough to allow him to resume baseball activities. Being that Santana is already one of the most talented Cleveland hitters, he'll likely that he'll see ample playing time at DH and/or first base on days he's not behind the plate. Those who look at Santana's 2010 stats and assume he's a typical low average slugger are mistaken. With 500 or more plate appearances, I expect, Santana will top 20 home runs and 170 runs plus RBI and hit for an average greater than .275, making for truly spectacular contributions from a position that's not noted for production.

Pick No. 12 (48 overall): Yovani Gallardo
Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.60 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 207 K, 190 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela -- The Hardball Times

During this phase of the draft I will admit to being on my third glass of wine and already bragging (via standard draft chat) to my colleagues about my incredible sense of evaluating pitchers last season, when I targeted both Felix Hernandez and Ubaldo Jimenez on all my teams. (No one seemed too impressed). This season I decided to unveil my latest find: Yovani Gallardo! (What? You've all heard of him? Never mind.)

At this moment I feared that a healthy run of very good starting pitchers would be taken and I felt it was a good time to grab one. I gambled in this spot taking Gallardo and his high-ish walk rate over the likes of Cliff Lee, Adam Wainwright, Zack Greinke, Josh Johnson and Mat Latos.

In my defense, something about Latos' 2010 usage has me worried, I am expecting him to be elite but I do expect him to struggle a bit since his innings rose from 123 in '09 to over 184 last season. Chances are good for a hangover effect and I didn't want to chance that with my No. 1 starter. Greinke is solid and the move to the NL will help but I like to think that the Royals may be messing with Zack's fragile mind by shipping their slow-footed shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt along to Milwaukee to further frustrate him. Regarding Lee, Johnson and Wainwright, taking Gallardo over them is tough to defend. I'm sure many of my comrades had them ranked ahead of Gallardo and it was possible I could have gotten him on the bounce-back but I do love the high K rate that Yovani offers and I do expect him to make a significant jump this season. Stubborn pick.

Round 5

Pick No. 1 (49 overall): Geovany Soto
Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 20 HR, 0 SB, 56 R, 72 RBI, 500 PA
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

This was a panic pick, pure and simple. Before my turn, Carlos Santana (the object of my affections) was selected and suddenly the catcher position looked very bare. I understand Soto had some problems when Lou Piniella was the Cubs manager last season and I'm sure new manager Mike Quade will come to his senses and give the man the proper amount of playing time. It's funny, immediately after I drafted Soto I asked everyone if I pulled too early and it was pretty unanimous that I did; but I figured that Soto was the last of solid-tier catchers available and I didn't want to get stuck gambling on Matt Wieters or Russell Martin as my main backstop.

Pick No. 2 (50 overall) Alexei Ramirez
Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 18 HR, 12 SB, 80 R, 78 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

At the time of the pick, I wasn't a huge fan of it, and in retrospect, I'm still not thrilled with it. While I like Ramirez, and felt it necessary to get both of my middle infield positions locked up early so I'd have flexibility drafting one late to fill the actual MI spot, guys like Stephen Drew, Rafael Furcal and Starlin Castro were available a little later than I expected them to be. Still, looking at the positives, Ramirez has a solid track record that includes a career .283 average, upper teen to low 20s home run power, and low teens stolen base speed while compiling useful run and RBI totals. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have gone a different direction, but Ramirez' across the board contributions helped me avoid drafting the dreaded one trick pony speedsters and others of that ilk later.

Pick No. 3 (51 overall): Cliff Lee
Preseason Projection: 14 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, p169 K, 216 IP
Drafted by: Ray Flors Fantasy Baseball Cafe

Once again, I let MDC's rankings have an effect on my drafting and took Cliff Lee (who was top of the rankings) with no hesitation. While one shouldn't be totally reliant on WHIP as a factor for drafting pitchers, Lee was extremely stingy in allowing baserunners last year with an ultra-svelte 1.00 WHIP (which includes a 1.05 WHHP while with the Rangers) The move back to the Phillies is an exciting one for fantasy owners too, as the former AL Cy Young winner posted a solid 3.39 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, and 74 strikeouts in 79 innings in his first short regular season stint with Philly.

To some degree, Lee is like getting a bargain Roy Halladay: an ace capable of throwing 220+ innings, 190-200 strikeouts by volume of throwing more innings, and excellent ratios. Again, on a normal day, Wainwright would have edged Lee here as my pick, but getting Lee is no terrible oversight, especially as late as the early fifth round. Alternatively, I was tempted to take Jason Heyward or Andrew McCutchen, but as is my custom with my first draft, I let the players I'd like to target in drafts go, just to see how long they'll last on the board.

Pick #4 (52 Overall) Jason Heyward
Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 22 HR, 13 SB, 101 R, 88 RBI, 677 PA
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

While I think Heyward is over-hyped and he probably won't end up on any of my real teams, I think I have a disdain toward him because EVERYONE seems to love him. For those of you who play fantasy football, Heyward seems like Ryan Mathews—a guy who is young but seems to be a consensus top guy. These guys scare me. If Heyward has done this for years then I'd be more then delighted with this pick. But something seems off about this and I feel he's poised for a sophomore slump.

I'd rather have my "feeling" be proved wrong and be told "I told you so" than believe the hype (something Public Enemy told me not to do) and have a crappy player on my team.

I promise you I'm a "stats guy," but all I had to go off of was Mr. Gross' rankings and my gut feeling
—which is terrible whether it's coming from me or Joe Morgan. But as much as you should rely on statistics, don't overlook "your guys" or your gut feelings. You could have looked at Austin Jackson's BABIP all of last year and sold high, and yet he still ended up with a batting average over .300. I know I might be burned at the stake for saying this on THT, but god forbid you don't rely 100 percent on statistics.

Pick No. 5 (53 overall): Adam Wainwright
Preseason projection: 18 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 214 K, 229 IP
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I almost always draft a starting pitcher in Round five—I want at least one ace to anchor my staff. I watch some of the people drafted earlier in the round—Tier 2 position players—and feel good about my “position scarcity” strategy in the first four rounds; other people are worried about winding up with Yunel Escobar, and I can play for the best pitcher on the board.

And I am shocked that Wainwright is available. He is arguably the second or third best starter in all of baseball. Look at his peripherals from last year—a 1.05 WHIP—-and he pitches for a good-hitting team. He’s a lock to win 16+ games, and he’s never had serious arm trouble. I can’t quite believe that Gallardo (an enigma), Jiminez (inconsistent second half), Cliff Lee (great, but his numbers will take a hit in Philly), and Jon Lester (a very nice pitcher, but no Wainwright) have all been taken before Wainwright. I grab him, feeling like I just found a $20 bill lying on the street.

Pick No. 6 (54 overall): Mat Latos
Preseason projection: 193 IP, 14 W, 3.26 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 185 K
Drafted by: Zach Sanders,- Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

After perusing the board and realizing I still wasn't excited about any of the players remaining, I decided to take a second starting pitcher. Unless someone's projections are entirely too optimistic, it's rare to see an owner get two of his top six starters in the fourth and fifth rounds. But that's just what I did. Latos has great stuff, plays in a great park, and will still be only 23 years old when the season begins. Plus, Latos should be allowed to pitch more innings this year after the Padres hampered his total last season.

Pick No. 7 (55 overall): Jose Bautista
Preseason projection: .251 AVG, 34 HR, 7 SB, 88 R, 90 RBI, 614 PA
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

Bautista is getting no love from anyone. I’ll stand alone on the shoulders of this guy. Read my post “Who’s your Jose?.” Then take a look at his stats and sabermetrics. Now tell me why I shouldn’t draft him to be my third baseman. If your reasoning is that he’s never done it before or he doesn’t spray the ball around, you are only trying to justify some reason to not believe. I’ll spend a fifth round pick to show I believe.

Pick No. 8 (56 overall): Kendry Morales
Preseason projection: .296 AVG, 27 HR, 1 SB, 75 R, 95 RBI, 580 PA
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

The decision was whether to take one of the few remaining reliable power sources in Morales and Dunn or to take McCutchen. In the end, I felt that power is harder to come by and that Morales’ batting average puts him ahead of Dunn’s extra few homers. I love McCutchen, and who doesn’t, but with Carl Crawford and David Wright already on board, it was more important to get the power while I could. Morales smacked 34 homers two years ago and drove in over 100 runs while batting over .300. He was on pace to produce similar numbers last year until his walk-off grand slam celebration went awry. I foresee more round-trippers from the Angels’ cleanup hitter this year and unlike many other first baseman, his .300 average is a big plus.

Pick No. 9 (57 overall): Josh Johnson
Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.38 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 174 K, 189 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Although most analysts like to point out that quality starting pitching is deep in fantasy baseball—I myself am enamored with most of the top 50 ranked pitchers on my top 100 starting pitchers list—I do not like to gamble half of my 5x5 production. Rather than pick up starters last and patch together a starting staff or work the stream strategy, I prefer to draft two or three stud pitchers with good ratios and strikeout production early. Doing this gives me piece of mind because not only do I have an elite player, but such players enable me to take late-draft starting pitcher risks without having to worry about completely decimating my ratios or having to waste roster space on elite relievers. More importantly, elite starting pitchers get lots of innings, and lots of innings of good ratios allows you to draft an army of bottom-tier closers who pitch fewer innings of poor ratio baseball while racking up saves totals without hurting your bottom line.

I have Josh Johnson ranked as the fifth best fantasy starting pitcher for 2011. I was targeting Jason Heyward, who I expect to hit .300/30/15/100/100 in 2011, in this round, but those plans fell apart early in round five. With Adam Wainwright drafted and my fellow drafters already pulling lower ranked starters on my list, like Ubaldo Jimenez, Cliff Lee and Yovanni Gallardo, I felt it essential to pounce on Johnson to ace my staff. I expect Johnson to outperform Bill James’ K/9 and innings pitched totals in 2011.

Pick No. 10 (58 overall): Andrew McCutchen
Preseason Projection: .287 AVG, 16 HR, 33 SB, 99 R, 63 RBI, 662 PA
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

Pleasantly surprised. I wait on outfielders in these formats, and I don't mind having this five-category stud with an impact stolen base contribution as a complement to my pop. His batting average is on its way up to .300, thanks to boosts in BB/K and contact rate. The Bucs' lineup will probably limit his runs total, but his legs can make up for the difference there.

Pick No. 11 (59 Overall) CC Sabathia
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.32 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 202 K, 236 IP
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I am embarrassed to admit this is the first pick I actually made in this draft since he is not a pitcher I am particularly fond of. I was hoping McCutchen would fall to me, and in the wake of him being snatched up one pick before mine, I picked Sabathia in disgust. He is, admittedly, a true workhorse and despite his non-elite strikeout rate, he does post near-elite strikeout totals given the sheer number of innings he pitches.

However his strikeout and walk rates have been trending the wrong way for the last three years and it will take handful of luck for Sabathia to post a low threes ERA again. Clayton Kershaw and Mat Latos are likely to post better numbers, though Sabathia's durability does make him not a bad pick in this spot.

Pick No. 12 (60 overall): Clayton Kershaw
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.13 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 221 K, 213 IP
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys

I don’t like to take two pitchers in a row this early, but there’s an odd bubble of pitchers in the ADP rankings around this area and I couldn’t pass on one of my favorite young guns in Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers ace collected 212 strikeouts over 204.1 innings while his walk rate plummeted from 4.8 to 3.6 per nine innings. This vast improvement in his K/BB ratio along with a drop in WHIP for the third year in a row led to a second consecutive sub-3 ERA season despite a rise in BABIP and HR/FB percentage. Oh, and did I mention he was only 22 last year? Any concerns of a falloff from the young arm as the season progressed were proven ridiculous Not only did he lower his ERA and K/BB ratio in the second half, he threw his first career complete game shutout in his third-to-last start against the eventual World Champion San Francisco Giants. Considering his age, there’s a chance we haven’t even seen this electric fireballer’s ceiling yet.

Round 6

Pick No. 1 (61 overall): Elvis Andrus
Preseason projection: .274 AVG, 2 HR, 34 SB, 82 R, 43 RBI, 586 PA
Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini -- Bruno Boys

I’m not sure I like taking Andrus this early, but considering my draft slot, the scarcity of the position and my severe lack of stolen bases up to this point I snagged him. The Texas Rangers shortstop had a disappointing sophomore season, batting .265 with zero home runs (though he’s not exactly a power threat anyway) and a poor 68 percent success rate on the base paths. The only real sign of hope was a much improved walk-rate of 9.5 percent and he showed a level of patience at the plate that is uncommon for a 22-year-old. Considering his age there’s no doubt he’ll show some improvement this season. It’s just a matter of how much and whether he’ll justify his top-six ADP rank among shortstops. More success on the base paths and trust from the coaching staff will be the key.

Pick No. 2 (62 Overall) Adrian Beltre
Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 24 HR, 5 SB
Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times

I was very happy to land Beltre at this point in the draft; after the elite third baseman are off the board, Beltre provides great value in the fifth or sixth round. In Arlington, Beltre should post good power numbers and he's shown he is capable of monster seasons. The third basemen taken after him are Michael Young, Pedro Alvarez, Aramis Ramirez and Casey McGehee. In my opinion Beltre is a definite tier above these guys, and Beltre in round six is much less a reach than one of them in rounds seven or eight.

Pick No. 3 (63 overall): Justin Verlander
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.46 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 209 K, 226 IP
Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL

As planned, there were plenty of stable, K-happy aces available after I built up my offense. The innings are piling up, but he manages his game well in conserving velocity, both during games and throughout the season. He's a little streaky, but he eats frames and provides dominant starts.

Pick No. 4 (64 overall): Dan Haren
Preseason Projection: 15 W, 3.52 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 209 K, 238 IP
Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches

Though it was a close decision between Haren and Zack Greinke with my sixth round pick, I sided with the former because of his record of success in the AL, history of heath, and all-around career success. Though Greinke could be better than Haren in 2011, Haren has less “down” years to his name and the indisputably better numbers over the past three seasons. Not convinced? In the history of baseball, only four pitchers who pitched 1,000 or more innings in their career have posted a higher K/BB ratio than Dan Haren's 3.86 career mark: Tommy Bond (4.44), Curt Schilling (4.38), Pedro Martinez (4.15), and Mariano Rivera (4.15).

Haren is an indisputable WHIP machine with clear strikeout and ERA upside which make him an elite No. 1 starting pitcher, let alone a superior No. 2 for my team. I expect Haren, like Josh Johnson, to outperform what Bill James expects. Then again, maybe I am just trying to justify my frustration in not getting Beltre.

Pick No. 5 (65 overall): Jacoby Ellsbury
Preseason projection: 300 AVG, 8 HR, 59 SB, 102 R, 58 RBI
Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms

Not only will it be fun (in my imaginary mock team) to have both Ellsbury and Crawford, but why he slips so far is something I don’t understand. Sure, he was injured for most of 2010, like Morales and Morneau (I think we’re onto something here), but he’s expected back healthy this year. Plucking the value is something hard for me not to do in drafts. A healthy Ellsbury can put up Crawford-like numbers and if they bat 1-2 in that Red Sox lineup, both could score over 100 runs. I believe at this point in the draft, with Ellsbury, Crawford and Wright, I may have locked up the stolen base category. I expect Ellsbury to hit .300, score 100 runs, hit about 15 homers and drive in about 70 runs. Anything above 40 steals will suffice.

Pick No. 6 (66 overall): Zack Greinke
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.57 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 193 K, 222 IP
Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times

To this point I haven’t really thrown my laptop. Well, until this pick. Jacoby Ellsbury was in my pre-pick queue when Brett Greenfield stole him from me. Disheveled and reeling, I decided to grab a pitcher out of the amazing talent that still remained available. I was enticed only by Greinke, Tommy Hanson and David Price. I choose Greinke because I think he could have great success pitching in the National League for a team I really like to be successful as well. He’s 27 and he’s still a great groundball pitcher. My only concern is the dominance regression. This pick is more of a gut call than anything I can back with statistics.

Pick No. 7 (67 overall): Hunter Pence
Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 26 HR, 16 SB, 87 R, 90 RBI, 660 PA
Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs

Like my Holliday pick earlier in the draft, Pence was just too good a value to pass up at this point. The Astros outfielder fills up the stat sheet, and has been a virtual model of consistency over the past few seasons. You can count on Pence to deliver 25 home runs, a batting average over .280, and good counting stats to go with double-digit steals. While he may not be in a great lineup at the moment, he should still put up enough numbers to be a solid No. 2 outfielder.

Pick No. 8 (68 overall): Adam Dunn
Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 42 HR, 1 SB, 100 R, 120 RBI, 667 PA
Drafted by: Dave Chenok, winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against the Experts" fantasy league competition

I like to say that the real draft starts with Round 6. In the first five rounds, the players who get picked are pretty predictable, and it’s just a matter of how they fall out—someone can get injured, but in good leagues you don’t see dumb picks. Round 6 is where it starts to get interesting; the positions you (and everyone else) ended up with in Rounds 1-5 dictate your Rounds 6-10 picks, and it starts to be possible to make a mistake because ADP becomes influenced by reputation rather than ability (e.g., how old IS Torii Hunter?).

I’m running out of opportunities for that bopper first baseman I had wanted, and notice the projected power stats in my lineup thus far could be a problem downstream—there are few real home run types left. I had hoped to grab Kendry Morales—not a guaranteed bopper, but some upside and not a category killer—but he was taken the prior round. I don’t believe in Carlos Pena, especially not in a new league where he doesn’t know the pitchers well. I figure my choices are down to Paul Konerko—whose career year last year was preceded by a real stinker of a year in 2009, and who is about to turn 35—and Adam Dunn.

I have never taken Dunn in a fantasy draft (real or mock), and I may never do it again. I think the .257 projected average is probably optimistic—Dunn could just as easily hit .230. But I figure I am guaranteed power production with Dunn, and that he’s likely to hit even better in the strong White Sox lineup than in the Nationals’. Besides, he’s now going to be hitting in the AL Central, a weaker (as I see it) pitching division, especially with Greinke now in Milwaukee. And Dunn will no longer lose homers playing a bunch of games at CitiField. I sure wish I could have had Ryan Zimmerman and Prince Fielder, but that’s not how the world works (at least not in a snake draft). So I hold my nose and take Dunn.

By the way, the Dunn pick, I believe, shows the importance of drafting balance in the first few rounds. By taking Troy Tulowitzki and Ryan Zimmerman, I establish a hitting base that allows me to draft a specialist like Dunn without getting killed in one category. If I take Mark Teixeira or Ryan Howard early, I don’t have that luxury.

Pick No. 9 (69 Overall) Chris Carpenter
Preseason projection: 18 W, 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 183 K, 235 IP
Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches

At this point, I drafted another pitcher for two reasons. (1) At the key positions I needed at this point in the draft (i.e., middle infield) I was not impressed with who I could draft so I figured I could wait a few more rounds and not reach here and (2) I'm a big believer in having two elite pitchers by the time the sixth round is over. Carpenter (who was the best pitcher left and one of the last of the elites) along with Roy Halladay could anchor my pitching staff.

Pick No. 10 (70 overall): B.J. Upton
Preseason projection: .255 AVG, 16 HR, 40 SB, 87 R, 63 RBI, 606 PA
Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe

After passing on McCutchen, I was hoping for a stolen base threat and was aiming for Ellsbury, but alas was thwarted. I'm one of those eternal optimists with B.J. Upton, who is just coming to realize he won't likely rekindle his 2007 form with 40+ steals on the side. Pick 70 seemed like an opportune time to gamble on Upton raising his average along with his usual steals and middling 15-20 homer power. Given that I had Miguel Cabrera and a few average boosters in the later rounds, it seemed like I had the team to stomach Upton's batting average liability.

Pick No. 11 (71 overall): Cole Hamels
Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 219 IP
Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times

After spending my first five picks on hitters, it was time to finally nab the de facto ace of my staff. The pick came down to Hamels or Francisco Liriano, and was really a coin flip for me. If I were to do it again, I may go Liriano, but there was a lot I liked about Hamels, and the first difference was league. As is well documented, it is favorable to pitch in the National League as opposed to the American League. Also working in his favor was the fact he didn't post a 4.55 xFIP and 5.80 ERA in 2009 like Liriano had.

Looking at Hamels' stats, I was surprised to see both a significant jump in K/9 (9.10 in 2010 as opposed to 7.81 in 2009) and a spike in groundball percentage (45.4 rate in 2010 compared to a 40.4 mark in 2009), an unusual, but favorable combination. Just a quick and dirty projection for Hamels would suggest a safe bet of a mid-3.00s ERA with 185-plus strikeouts and a WHIP under 1.20 and the upside of him duplicating his 2010 stat line. Those numbers put me lagging behind owners who spent higher picks on their aces, but at a certain point I had to pluck a staff anchor, and I came into the draft with the intentions of drafting multiple high strikeout pitchers in the mid-rounds to minimize the risk of spending a higher pick on an elite ace and backing him with some lesser starters.

Pick No. 12 (72 overall): David Price
Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.57 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 191 K, 217 IP
Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times

I know a few picks ago I talked about avoiding Mat Latos due to Pitcher Abuse Points, and then I select David Price, who seems to be a popular candidate for regression in '11. Last season, Price saw an innings jump of nearly 50 innings, but I figured I would take the risk for my second staring pitcher. (If Latos had been available here, obviously I would have selected him as my second starter, but that's life in mock draft city). Maybe I'm reading too much in his last season's ERA (another fantasy no-no) but I believe in Price and find him improving with each start. It is curious that he has seemed to have abandoned his slider but his two-seamer has been quite successful in inducing more ground balls and keeping his previously high home run rates down a smidge.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:36am

Matt Cain sacrifices goats

Earlier this winter, The Hardball Times offered prospective fantasy baseball writers the opportunity to compete in a Hardball Times fantasy league. Entrants wrote fantasy baseball articles, the best of which would be chosen as our winner. While we could only choose one winner to play in the league (congratulations, Dave Chenok), we had so many great articles that we have decided to publish some of the best. This is one of those submissions.

What? You got a better idea? Just how would you describe a pitcher for whom “lucky” doesn’t even begin to capture his defiance of all laws of probability. Think I’m being hyperbolic* here? Well consider that of the 85 starting pitchers with at least 1,000 career innings pitched and who played since line drive and home run/fly ball percentages were recorded, Matt Cain's career ranking for liners is eighth lowest, while he is lower than everyone homers per fly ball.

That’s just the half of it, though: He is also the holder of the very lowest figure when it comes to batting average on balls in play and has the fifth highest left on base percentage of all of those same pitchers. In other words, the combined paucity of line drives allowed, balls in play that turned into hits, fly balls that became home runs, and baserunners who made it all the way home stands in open mockery of what we believed to be the unassailable truth that extremes will, sooner or later, regress to the mean. Hence the goat thing….

* (When I taught "hyperbole" in English class, I'd slam my fist and scream "I've told you a hundred thousand times what hyperbole means." Sadly, they didn't share my estimation of my cleverness.)

But I’m not saying that there is no such thing as unsustainable pitching luck … far from it. I’d be willing to bet that, since you’re spending your time reading saberist sites such as this one, we could look at the draft summaries from the leagues you just finished playing in and see strong pitchers you picked up for chump change because they just couldn’t catch a break on balls in play the year before; or, conversely, that you didn’t bite on the guy that everyone else thought had a real breakthrough last year because you knew he couldn’t possibly keep so many fly balls in the park again.

I, for one, must admit to the occasional look back at my auctioneering brilliance, though I should probably share with you three words that kind of put a damper on my celebrations of self: 1) ESPN. 2) 10-team. 3) Mixed. That is, if I sat down to draft against you all, instead, do you really think I alone would adjust my rankings to account for last year’s luck? Of course not … veering from the crowd’s ADP isn’t just something that the LABR guys do.

So what do you do when the low hanging fruit is no longer there? I suggest, in the great tradition of sabermetric thought, that you go against the crowd; that is, now that everyone knows to adjust for luck, don’t do it! Yep, my solution to everyone else getting smart is, er, to engage your inner Tim McCarver, say “xFIP who?” and look forward with anticipation to Felix Hernandez leading you to ERA nirvana.

That’s right, I’m betting Felix’s ’10 suggests a similar ’11 despite the fact that he wouldn’t have bagged a 2.27 ERA without such feats as limiting hitters to an absurdly low 16.3 line drive percentage, .273 BABIP and 8.5 HR/FB, as well as stranding an astounding 77.4 percent of his baserunners. And on what grounds? Nothing short of having good ol' great “stuff.”

I’m serious, actually, but it’s a little more complex than I just made it sound. I believe I have found a small, but very real, instance in which we can explain luck, paradoxical as that may sound. Specifically, we have in Felix’s statistical record the sabermetric evidence that Hernandez wields what a scout would call “plus” pitches, by which I mean that in the Pitch Value section of his Fangraphs player page he has thrown, in each of the last two years, both a fastball and a change-up that saved at least a full win of runs more than average (e.g. in '10 his wFB was 25.5, or worth 2.5 wins above average, while his wCH was 18.7). And it is with that specific arsenal that I believe (and have the numbers to back it up) a pitcher can control all those things we have come to believe he can’t.

His xFIP (which I’m using both because players are starting to rely on it when projecting next year’s performance, and because it is the one ERA variant that counts all four metrics discussed here as measures of luck) is, in its full point difference, very clear that we should expect a significant regression. Now, regressing from 2.27 can only be so bad, so I’m not saying that my hypothetical league rivals are going to rate him below a slew of others, but rather that you may be able to take him a good five or 10 bucks lower than those who downgrade his projections on the basis of his apparent luck, in turn making him the rare ace to justify his cost and maybe even then some.

(Just a quick look at the last couple of NL LABR drafts suggests that more "expert" players do indeed diverge from the crowd when there is strong evidence of luck at play. Those starting pitchers whom xFIP predicted would regress the most almost universally went cheaper in the following year’s LABR draft than would have been the equivalent cost of where they ended up on the general public's ADP).

Okay, I’ll finally get to the goods:

The odds that any given pitcher will end up among the top 10 “luckiest” according to BABIP (or one of the other three metrics) in any one year is about 12 percent. Of the nearly 700 qualifying starting pitcher seasons since the onset of batted ball data in 2002, there were 14 pitchers (before Felix in ’10) who had a dominant fastball/change-up combo. Sample size, I know, but just look at how extreme their numbers compare: 29 percent of the time such a pitcher is on the BABIP list, more than double average, and the same 29 percent goes for HR/FB. Impressive, but then there’s LD percentage, where they have a 43 percent chance. In left on base rate, the odds rise all the way to 50 percent.

Even when you compare those odds to pitcher seasons with any other combination of two “plus” pitches (of which there were 33), it’s not even close: Their odds, like the overall average, remain in the teens for all but LOB percentage, which occurred an impressive one-third of the time. (That in turn suggests that we should really be wary when using FIP and the like to project pitching studs, insofar as it appears elite pitchers do have an actual ability to strand more runners than others).

But that still means fastball/change-up pitchers are half-again as likely to rank at the top of the LOB list. As for commanding a single dominant pitch of any type, there is zero evidence of any significant impact on these metrics (too bad for my hopes to eventually explain Cain via his sick fastball).

Probably the starkest difference was the huge influence the FB/CH group had on line drive percentager, while even those with other plus-pitch combos didn’t shift the odds an inch. (You might think, then, that tERA would be the way to go, but remember, we’re talking about just a tiny fraction of all starting pitchers, so in most cases you actually wouldn’t want to consider batted balls a skill as that metric does.)

Why should this matter to you? To put it in the clearest fantasy baseball terms,line driveLD percentage influences your ratio categories in a significant way. Felix, for example, with a LD percentage three full points below average, lowered his ERA by .2 through that form of control alone. (I’ve gone on way too long to add in all the calculations here, but you can replicate them easily using standard linear weights).

Of course, none of this would matter were it not for the fact that these players' performances the next year continued to defy advanced RA metrics' predictions: A majority of the "lucky" FB/CHers had, on average, a following year ERA lower than xFIP predicted by an average of a half-point.

Ultimately, this is just one small way to get an edge on your opposition, but in an age when so much advanced data is freely available to all, knowing any way to play this knowledge against your league mates can only help. And there are surely other occasions in which to employ this angle; Clay Buchholz, for example, is the 32nd starter drafted at Mock Draft Central— going that late largely because of the appearance of massive luck last year—but if this 26-year-old can improve his change-up only slightly (2010 wCH: 7.7) and maintain anything near the quality of last year's fastball (20.8 wFB), he just may reward his owners by delivering crazy low ratios for a second year in a row at a very, very nice price.

In the end, it's just classic saberist thinking, no? When others zig, you zag, and then when they learn that they should have been zagging, you gotta find a way to zig to your advantage.

Posted by Will Hatheway at 3:26am

Thursday, January 27, 2011

2011 top 10 prospects: Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres

Colorado Rockies: Top 10 Prospects

1. Christian Friedrich / SP / Many have jumped off the Friedrich bandwagon, but, despite some warning signs, my respect and expectations for him have not slipped. He went through an elbow injury and command issues during his ugly 2010 season, but his exciting repertoire is still accounted for. Expect a dramatic bounce-back year.
2. Tyler Matzek / SP / Much like Friedrich, Matzek has a great repertoire to work with, including a lively fastball, a potential out pitch with his curveball, and a promising changeup. His high walk rate in 2010 is being attributed to how often he used his work-in-progress changeup—in an attempt to develop that elusive, dangerous third pitch—as opposed to his curveball.
3. Wilin Rosario / C / Rosario was on his way to a breakout season before he tore his ACL mid-season. He is expected to make a full recovery, but it is a concern for a catcher. He is adequate defensively, passable but nothing special. It's the offensive aspect of his game that could set him apart, as the home run potential we were waiting for finally surfaced in 2010.
4. Nolan Arenado / 3B / Arenado did just about everything in 2010 you could expect out of a teenager, but he doesn't look like anything special at this point, just a solid professional hitter. He could prove me wrong if some of his gap power translates into more home runs.
5. Chad Bettis / SP/RP / Bettis' varied repertoire fits the mold of a starter more than reliever, and it appears that Colorado will give him every chance to prove he can start. The initial results have been positive.
6. Peter Tago / SP / Tago is a wiry high school right hander with a lively fastball and velocity upside. His secondary offerings are raw to the bone, but he has the work ethic to become special.
7. Juan Nicasio / SP / Colorado has moved Nicasio slowly through their system, one level at a time, and the 2010 numbers were great even though he was old for the California League. He looks the part of a potential mid-rotation starter with his solid stuff but lack of an out pitch.
8. Kyle Parker / OF / Parker is not an overly exciting first-round pick. He is a college outfielder with some holes in his swing who possesses some sneaky speed and has a chance to hit for a bit of power.
9. Rex Brothers / RP / Brothers has been cemented into a future in the bullpen, where his command will dictate his success level, because he has the raw stuff to become a closer.
10. Albert Campos / SP / Campos is a lively-armed teenager who has a promising three-pitch mix, complete with a developing fastball, average changeup, and a potential out pitch with his curveball.

Colorado Rockies: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Carlos Gonzalez / OF
2. Jhoulys Chacin / SP/RP
3. Dexter Fowler / OF
4. Christian Friedrich / SP
5. Tyler Matzek / SP
6. Ian Stewart / 3B
7. Wilin Rosario / C
8. Nolan Arenado / 3B
9. Chad Bettis / SP/RP
10. Peter Tago / SP

San Diego Padres: Top 10 Prospects

1. Casey Kelly / SP / Kelly had a down year in attempting to adjust to Double-A. His changeup is effective at times, but his curveball was unreliable and needs work. I still like him, though, as he has good movement and command on his fastball, is young, and there is room for improvement.
2. Simon Castro / SP / Castro brings a promising fastball/slider combination to the table and continues to step up his game wherever he goes. The Pacific Coast League is the only other obstacle standing between him and the majors.
3. Donavan Tate / OF / It's amazing how many people are completely writing off Tate after an ugly debut. He is 20 years old with perhaps the best raw five-tool set of any prospect in baseball. I am in his corner but am also expecting results in 2011.
4. Jaff Decker / OF / Decker had an up and down 2010 California League campaign, yet I consider him to be one of the safest prospects in baseball. He still has some holes in his swing, but he also possesses the patience and power you look for in a corner outfielder.
5. Reymond Fuentes / OF / Fuentes sported a nice Sally League batting average in 2010, and perhaps predictably, but importantly, Fuentes put his elite speed on display, too. He did all that could be expected of him at this point.
6. Anthony Rizzo / 1B / Rizzo put up impressive power numbers in 2010, but his batting average and strikeout total are concerning. His power could carry him, but I'm still skeptical that it will continue at the current rate.
7. Edinson Rincon / 3B/OF / Rincon held his own in the Midwest League. The only aspect of his game that was disappointing was his walk rate. The most impressive aspect was his power, which is coming along nicely. He could be in store for a huge breakout next year.
8. Drew Cumberland / SS/2B / Despite continued injury concerns, Cumberland continues to succeed. Nothing about his game stands out; in fact, I would consider him average across the board for a shortstop, which San Diego would be satisfied with.
9. Cory Luebke / SP / Luebke posted a second consecutive impressive season. He has sharp command of his low-90s fastball, but has average (at best) secondary offerings. He fits the mold of a back-of-the-rotation type right now, but if something clicks with his slider, a bigger future could be in store.
10. John Barbato / SP/RP / I could have made a case for James Darnell or Adys Portillo here, but Barbato is an exciting high school arm from the 2010 draft class who possesses solid velocity and movement on his fastball to go along with the makings of a strong repertoire. I want to give him a chance to impress.

San Diego Padres: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Mat Latos / SP
2. Cameron Maybin / OF
3. Casey Kelly / SP
4. Simon Castro / SP
5. Donavan Tate / OF
6. Jaff Decker / OF
7. Kyle Blanks / OF/1B
8. Reymond Fuentes / OF
9. Anthony Rizzo / 1B
10. Edinson Rincon / 3B/OF

Posted by Matt Hagen at 4:01am (3) Comments

Pitching sleepers for 2011!

Last week I pointed out several sleepers and draft day bargains that could be had for offensive players, so this week I’ll turn the tables and focus on pitchers.

To reiterate, I’ve heard many different definitions on what exactly qualifies someone as a sleeper. Some say that it’s simply a player whose statistics for 2011 are projected to be significantly better than his previous season. Others argue that a sleeper is merely someone whose expected value is far superior to his average draft position (ADP). Another camp may believe that it’s a player who will make a strong fantasy impact, but isn’t considered to be a relevant option or targeted in drafts.

Here’s a very simple rule that I try to follow when building my pitching staff: If a pitcher doesn’t have high strikeout potential, he’s basically worthless to me in 5x5 roto leagues.

While guys who won a lot of games last year or had sparkling ratios may seem appealing, a pitcher's strikeouts per nine innnings (K/9) and strikeouts-to-walks (K/BB) ratio are much better indicators of true skill, dominance and future effectiveness. I’m not saying that guys like Tim Hudson, Trevor Cahill and Fausto Carmona can’t be helpful, but their low K rates keep them from being elite options and, therefore, shouldn’t be counted on to lead your staff.

Here are a few guys that you may not be thinking much about whom I would consider targeting in upcoming drafts.

Brandon Morrow (Mock Draft Central ADP: 158): As of now, Brandon Morrow is the 44th starting pitcher going off the board, behind players like Jair Jurrjens, John Lackey, and Scott Baker. I believe that’s absolutely absurd. Morrow posted a 10.9 K/9 last season, and that number jumps as high as 13.0 in eight starts after the All-Star break. His stuff is among the best in the league, and if he can cut down on the walks, he could end up being a top-15 pitcher this year.

Mike Minor (ADP: 256): Minor owns an electric left arm that allowed him to post a 9.5 K/9 in his nine-game stint in Atlanta last season. As of now, he’s considered the favorite to win the fifth starter spot and possesses tremendous upside. Well worth the gamble as a fifth or sixth starter in deep leagues.

James McDonald (ADP: 339): McDonald is another former highly-regarded prospect who can now be considered a post-hype sleeper. He strikes out just under a batter an inning and fared very well after his trade to Pittsburgh last season. He’s guaranteed a rotation spot, and it wouldn’t be surprising me at all to see him end up with 175+ Ks and solid peripherals.

Chris Young (ADP: 329): This one depends on just how risk-averse your strategy is. When fully healthy from 2006-2008, Young was among the game’s best with good ratios and around 8.5 K/9. He’s discounted due to those injuries, but if he can bounce back, he’s a very solid arm to round out your rotation.

Erik Bedard (ADP: N/A): Here’s another guy who’s attempting to come back after major injuries but still possesses major upside if he can stay healthy. Bedard owns a career 8.8 K/9 and had sparkling ratios to go along with it until injuries derailed his time in Seattle. If he’s healthy when spring training rolls around, you could do a whole lot worse than taking a flyer on this guy.

Homer Bailey (ADP: 331): Another post-hype sleeper, it seemed like Bailey finally started to put it all together in the second half last season. He posted an overall 8.3 K/9 last year that jumped up to 9.1 after the All-Star break. The important thing to watch here is what Dusty Baker decides to do with his rotation. Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto and Bronson Arroyo are locks, which leaves Bailey, Travis Wood and Mike Leake competing for the final two2 spots. Each of them has nice upside in their own right, but be sure to monitor this battle as spring progresses.

Yunesky Maya (ADP: N/A): A 29-year-old Cuban defector who only pitched 21.1 innings of organized ball before his brief cup of coffee with the Nats last year. Though he struggled, he definitely has a major league arm and has blazed his way through hitters in the Dominican Winter League. If he can win a spot in the Nationals’ rotation, he’s another guy who’s currently going undrafted that could pay tremendous dividends.

Once again, power arms are the best way to build your pitching staff. Ks are the one stat that show a pitcher’s true dominance and have less fluctuation from year to year. It’s a much better idea to gamble on guys with high strikeout upside than rounding out your staff with Mark Buehrle and Livan Hernandez types.

I hope this was again helpful and somewhat informative. Check back next week as I break down important position battles to monitor during spring training. Feel free to comment or post any questions you may have.

Posted by Dave Shovein at 4:11am

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

Read and react, part 1

Here at Hardball Times, we like to pride ourselves on in-depth, highly substantive analysis. But this week, I’d like to do something a bit different.

I’d be lying if I said I’ve been deep into 2011 fantasy research since the sun set on 2010. In fact, I’m just really starting to dig in now. One of the things I like to do early on is to simply get a pulse on the market’s opinions of players outside the top 50. Right now, I’m just going to do a bit of a read and react as I scan ADP, noting quite a lot of names that jump out at me and appear undervalued. I’ll do the same for players I find overvalued in an upcoming column. Again, this is not in-depth analysis, but more of a temperature read based on simple market principles and overall experience. I’ll move through this list in order of ADP.

Keep in mind that especially as you get further down the list, the standard deviation for the ADPs grows, so some of these players may go way earlier or later than their ADP in mock drafts you may have seen.

60. Kendry Morales. If you bought into Morales’s ADP last season, then 60th overall represents a bargain at a point in the draft where it’s pretty difficult to find one. Prior to breaking his leg in that freak accident last season, Morales seemed on his way to justifying his 2009 cost.

94. Grady Sizemore. I can’t blame the market for being down on Sizemore, and there’s no guarantee he doesn’t prove to be a huge bust. And, yes, I know that the 94th overall pick certainly isn’t a throwaway selection, but if you’re confident in your ability to find late value and you’re willing to compensate for this aggressive risk pick early on by taking a boring veteran late when you’d otherwise tempted to roll the dice on a prospect, there’s clear potential value to be had here. This isn’t a no-brainer, but by year’s end it will likely look like it should have been one… one way or the other.

105. Nick Markakis. Bizarrely low RBI and Runs totals drastically marred Markakis’s fantasy value last season, but his overall performance was much more similar to his previous three campaigns. I was among those disappointed that Markakis didn’t become the next Bobby Abreu archetype fantasy beast after 2007, but he’s a known, high caliber quantity coming off his worst season, superficially, in the majors. This sounds like a textbook buy-low opportunity.

116. Jonathan Papelbon. Isn’t it possible we are making a bit too much of Papelbon’s struggles? He had a few exceptionally bad outings last season and ended the season with the worst stretch of his career, but his strikeouts and homers weren’t too far off his career rates. His walks were a bit up, but they were a tad high in 2009 as well. He has a nice size contract, so even if he does find himself being traded, it is highly unlikely he changes uniforms to do anything but close.

131. Ben Zobrist. Zobrist was something of a bust last season, but that was partly a function of expectations and partly due to a very low batting average. If Zobrist modestly rebounds to post a neutral batting average, then even a repeat of last season’s somewhat disappointing production would make for fine middle infielder and justify this price. Should he regain any more of his 2009 glory, that would be all profit. Zobrist will also retain nearly all his positional eligibility going into 2011, making him a nicely flexible piece.

158. Pablo Sandoval. I’m not sure what to make of Sandoval’s struggles last season. He was shuffled all around the order and failed to produce after the first two months or so of the season. Sandoval suffered some BABIP woes, but they weren’t as abominable as you might expect given his drop in average and relative stability in batted ball type and walk and strikeout rate. So, I’m kind of puzzled, but at this price it’s worth the gamble to see if Sandoval redeems himself.

192. Aaron Hill. Hill is another player I’m willing to give a shot at redemption. Hill did suffer horribly from poor BABIP luck in 2010, which also affected his run and RBI totals. Like Zobrist, Hill’s price has fallen to the point where the risk is largely mitigated. At this price, I just see it as much more likely Hill turns a profit than goes belly up.

205. Jason Bay. There’s no way around the fact that Bay was terrible before sustaining a concussion last season. His homerun rate of one per nearly 60 at bats was basically a Black Swan-type event. Proven players coming off of uncharacteristically poor seasons are often investment opportunities, as are proven players coming off of injury. Bay qualifies as both.

208. Drew Stubbs. Stubbs simply has too much upside to be on the board this long. He’s a bit of a batting average risk, but he’s the starting CF in a friendly home park and a part of one of the better offenses in the league. Stubbs accumulated 52 combined homers and steals in his first full season in the league; the fact that this kind of talent is around at this point in the draft is absurd.

216. Carlos Quentin. It doesn’t really look like a return to 2008 form is in the cards for Quentin, but it’s not outside the realm of possibility. A 30/100 season however is highly plausible, as part of a line-up with a lot of firepower in homer-friendly confines.

217. Carlos Pena. Pena will be the 33 this season. You have to think he has about two more seasons where he remains roughly the entity he is now. Within that window you expect him to hit homers in the high 20s to the low 40s and hit anywhere from .200 to .265. At this price, it’s probably worth seeing if you get one of the better seasons within that variation. See, I told you this wasn’t going to be particularly in-depth analysis.

227. Gaby Sanchez. I’ve covered Sanchez a few times already this offseason. He seems like a solid value here. I’m not sure there’s a ton of breakout potential in Sanchez, but if you’re filling out your roster and looking for take-nothing-off-the-table contributions at this point in the draft, Sanchez probably fits that bill and makes you a bit of a profit.

230. Brett Gardner. Ichiro minus the batting average at a nearly 200 draft slot discount? Gardner’s ability to get on base and his wheels will keep the runs and steals pouring in. The potency of the Yankees line-up enables a fair amount of RBI opportunities even in the ninth hole.

230. Brad Lidge. Lidge rounded into somewhat vintage form toward the end of last season. He’s locked in as the closer, and couched behind one of the best rotations in recent memory. Lidge proved a fine value last season and his price hasn’t really jumped despite a generally reaffirming performance. At this point, you have to think he’s only healthier and further removed from his nadir.

237. Carlos Beltran. Is it possible for a player so shortly removed from the game’s absolute elite to play a full season and not justify this price? I think it will be important to keep your eye on how Beltran looks on the bases during the spring. As long as he seems capable of stealing double-digit bases, it seems this ADP is laughable.

251. Jonathan Broxton. With an admittedly tenuous grasp of the bullpen situation in Los Angeles, I’m just going to act based on the assumption that common sense will prevail in some way, shape, or form for Broxton. Given Broxton’s track record, he should first be given every opportunity to earn the closer role back. Even if that doesn’t fall into place, you’d think there would be numerous teams interested in giving him a shot. A middle relief role on the Dodgers doesn’t seem all that likely to me because if he’s pitching like he can, he should be closing and if he’s not pitching well, then why should he be pitching high leverage innings at all? I think this is a situation where Broxton is worth more alive than dead, so to speak.

255. Ike Davis. Davis is a bit like Carlos Pena, but with a presumed narrower variance of expectation – higher floor, lower ceiling.

262. Ted Lilly. I’m really sick about writing about how underrated Lilly is. Insert combination Groundhog Day, Rodney Dangerfield reference here.

270. Joe Nathan. I don’t expect this ADP to stay here for long, but it seems like the earlier your draft, the better the price you’ll pay for Nathan.

274. Angel Pagan. And the parade of Mets continues, but don’t worry fellow Flushing faithful, .500 would still be overachieving. In regard to Pagan though, he was in the 100th rank range last season. Does any of last season’s production look so wildly unrepeatable?

281. Matt Thornton. If Thornton had an uncontested claim on the closer job in Chicago, he’d shoot up the list in a heartbeat. Given that he is the favorite for that job and he has proven effective enough to have legitimate fantasy value even in a non-closer role, he’s a no-brainer this late. Basically, he’d still most likely turn a profit at this price even as a set-up man.

287. Rajai Davis. Batting order demotions (sometimes well-deserved ones) and a weak offense suppressed potentially higher run totals in 2009. Still, 40-plus steals, a neutral to positive batting average, and adequate lead-off RBI totals makes Davis an easy bargain here. What exactly makes Michael Bourn 170 picks better than Davis?

333. Joel Hanrahan/370. Evan Meek. Obviously, only one of these two will emerge as Pittsburgh’s closer, but either are good bets at these prices.

342. Chris Johnson. It’s going to be quite difficult for Johnson to maintain a good batting average with his walk rate, but he’s young and will be given the chance to back-up last year’s surprise performance in Houston.

350. Neil Walker. For pennies, it’s worth finding out if he can maintain plus-pop as a middle infielder.

369. Domonic Brown. If even a portion of the hype is real, this is golden. One thing about blue-chip, widely-known prospects is that if they get off to a hot start, sometimes you can really cash in on them in a trade,

376. Josh Willingham. Willingham could be the clean-up hitter in Oakland, right?

387. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman is likely to stay in the bullpen in 2011. He’s also not slated to supplant Francisco Cordero as closer. Still, with the K-rate he’s likely to produce, it doesn’t even matter how the Reds plan to use Chapman when you’re buying him for a song.

387. Koji Uehara. With Kevin Gregg in the mix, Uehara will have to do a lot to win the closer role in Baltimore. Still, he’s probably good enough to warrant this price without closing and if Gregg is his main competition, he’s never more than an arm’s reach from save chances.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:38am

Why a save is not a save

Core starters	        INN     K      ERA      WHIP
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	230.1	213	2.423	1.051
Myers, Brett SP HOU	223.2	180	3.139	1.243
Wilson, CJ RP TEX	204.0	170	3.353	1.245
Scherzer, Max SP DET	195.2	184	3.496	1.247
Santana, Ervin SP ANA	222.2	169	3.921	1.320
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL	185.0	200	3.843	1.368
SubTotal	       1261.1	1116	3.339	1.241

Now let’s look at the impact of adding three “early round” relievers per my strategy…
Scen 1: "Top-drawer closers"

      	                  INN   K	  ERA    WHIP
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	230.1	213	2.423	1.051
Myers, Brett SP HOU	223.2	180	3.139	1.243
Wilson, CJ RP TEX	204.0	170	3.353	1.245
Scherzer, Max SP DET	195.2	184	3.496	1.247
Santana, Ervin SP ANA	222.2	169	3.921	1.320
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL	185.0	200	3.843	1.368
Bell, Heath RP SD	70.0	86	1.929	1.200
Wilson, Brian RP SF	74.2	93	1.808	1.179
Soria, Joakim RP KC	65.2	71	1.782	1.051
SubTotal	      1471.2  1366	3.125	1.227

…versus the impact of waiting and taking less attractive closers per “conventional wisdom.”
Scen 2: "Don't pay for saves"

                         INN	  K      ERA    WHIP
Wainwright, Adam SP STL	230.1	213	2.423	1.051
Myers, Brett SP HOU	223.2	180	3.139	1.243
Wilson, CJ RP TEX	204.0	170	3.353	1.245
Scherzer, Max SP DET	195.2	184	3.496	1.247
Santana, Ervin SP ANA	222.2	169	3.921	1.320
Gallardo, Yovani SP MIL	185.0	200	3.843	1.368
Jenks, Bobby RP CHW	52.2	61	4.443	1.367
Gregg, Kevin RP TOR	59.0	58	3.509	1.390
Capps, Matt RP MIN	73.0	59	2.466	1.260
SubTotal	      1446.0  1294	3.342	1.252

Whoa. The difference is fairly significant in all three of the non-save categories modeled. Think you won’t score more points with a 3.125 ERA than a 3.342 ERA? Yeah, you will. In my main league last year, a 0.217 ERA differential was worth up to six points.

“But wait,” I can hear the experts protesting. “You picked three guys you knew had great stats for Scenario 1, and three guys with lousy stats for Scenario 2. You cherry picked.” Well, not really. I saw these exact combinations (or their equivalents) in several leagues I participated in last year. Maybe the difference wouldn’t be as dramatic if I’d used Jon Papelbon instead of Joakim Soria, but it’d be even greater if I’d used Matt Lindstrom instead of Matt Capps. Frankly, guys who follow the “don’t pay for saves” mantra don’t wind up with relievers as good as Bobby Jenks, Kevin Gregg and Capps.

“But wait,” I can hear the experts chortling. “What if you’d picked Joe Nathan or Jonathan Broxton—you’d have been hosed with this strategy.” Well, that’s true, but anyone can get injured, as the folks who used an early pick on Chase Utley well know. Besides, you have to be a little bit smart in executing any strategy—Nathan has had arm trouble in the past. And Broxton was outstanding in 2009, but it was his first full year as a closer—you don’t want any early-round strategy focused on guys without a multiyear record (see also Pablo Sandoval).

“But wait,” I can hear the experts spluttering. “If you wasted early round picks on Heath Bell, Brfian Wilson and Soria, you would never have had the six starting pitchers you did. Your Scenario 1 starters would not be as strong as your Scenario 2 starters to start with, and that would wash out the impact of the closers.” Again, not true—I did take Adam Wainwright early in this league, but I picked up four of the other six guys after Round 15 or off waivers, and my core starting pitching was statistically superior to most teams in my leagues. You need to do your homework, but you can assemble a statistically equivalent set of starters waiting several rounds to take your last three or four. Your straters may not be as good as someone else’s, but if you play your cards right there’s an equal chance they’ll better.

“But wait,” I can hear the experts croaking. “If you used early round picks for closers, you can’t possibly have had enough hitting—you must have sacrificed points there.” Well it’s hard to model what I didn’t do, but… assuming you use the first four rounds of your draft on strong hitters at weaker positions, there are generally enough corner infielders and outfielders left in rounds 8-12 to build a very solid overall hitting lineup. You can have your cake and eat it too.

Look, there are no guarantees in any of this. I am not saying that prioritizing closers guarantees you’ll win your league. What I am saying is that the non-save scoring statistics of closers have more impact on your team’s overall pitching performance than conventional wisdom would have you believe. So when this year’s draft rolls around, think twice before you congratulate yourself for your fantasy acumen in picking up Fernando Rodney in Round 17. You may think you didn’t “pay for saves,” but actually you just did pay—the opportunity cost of the money you could have won, which is now flying into the stands along with the last home run Rodney gave up. But—oh yeah—he still got the save. Trust me, a save is not a save.

Posted by Dave Chenok at 5:30am

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Twisting Oliver: joining the elite

If there’s one pitcher type all owners covet, it’s a high-strikeout guy … who won’t kill your ratios with repeated six-walk, seven-run outings. It’s hard to find a guy who offers both a lofty whiff total, and a braggable ERA, and if you can land one or more of those types, your pitching staff will frighten the opposition—even if they'll never admit it to your face. For the sake of this article, let’s use a K/9 of 8.5 and a sub-4.00 ERA as our benchmarks.

In 2009, only nine pitchers managed to do both, but last year, the year of the pitcher, 14 guys qualified. Here’s a look at that list (among starting pitchers who threw at least 100 innings):

Tim Lincecum
Jon Lester
Yovani Gallardo
Jonathan Sanchez
Francisco Liriano
Jered Weaver
Clayton Kershaw
Mat Latos
Josh Johnson
Cole Hamels
Justin Verlander
Colby Lewis
Ryan Dempster
Ubaldo Jimenez

It’s basically a who’s who of elite fantasy pitchers, although I am surprised to see Dempster’s name in the group. Only two starters topped the 8.5 K/9 mark and failed to produce an ERA under 4.00—Brandon Morrow, who actually led all starters with 10.9 K/9, and Bud Norris, both of whom we’ll soon discuss.

At first I found it a little weird that 14 of 16 pitchers with a K/9 over 8.5 also had sub-4.00 ERAs, but upon further thought, not so much. High strikeout guys typically do one of two things: either they dial back their stuff to gain more control, and in the process suffer reduced strikeout rates, or they fail to consistently harness/control their arsenal, and are sent to the bullpen. What we’re searching for in this week’s edition of Twisting Oliver, is that rare pitcher who can make the necessary adjustments without losing what makes him special—the ability to miss multitudes of bats.

What follow is a group of pitchers that Oliver thinks are 2011 contenders to join the elite, and reach the pre-determined benchmarks for ERA and K/9.

Brandon Morrow

2009: 4.39 ERA/1.57 WHIP/8.1 K/9 (69.2 IP)
2010: 4.49 ERA/1.38 WHIP/10.9 K/9 (146 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.17 ERA/1.32 WHIP/9.2 K/9 (126 IP)

Sporting an ERA of 6.00 heading into June, Morrow reined in his stuff, and produced a 3.53 ERA/1.24 WHIP to go along with a K/9 of 11.3 from June-August, including a one-hit, 17 strikeout, complete game shutout of the Rays. He was put in the garage in September to limit his innings.

Oliver thinks ... the ratios will trend downward, and the strikeouts will continue to come in bunches. If you extrapolate the Oliver numbers out using the THT Forecast for innings pitched (200), Morrow comes in as a top 50 pitcher, essentially a No. 4 starter in 12-team rotations.

I think ... there're plenty of reasons to indicate he'll better Oliver's projections. His xFIP sat at 3.63 last season, a significant difference from his 4.49 ERA. His BABIP of .348 was the fourth highest mark in the league. Both those numbers, combined with his productive summer, point to an ERA that could easily sit in the 3.50 range. As for that productive summer, it coincided perfectly with Bengie Molina becoming his personal catcher. The fireballer credits Molina with turning him on to the benefit of dialing down his power stuff ever so slightly, and relying more on his off-speed pitches. The result: a BB/9 ratio that went from 5.3 in the first two months, to 3.2 after, and a full inning increase in the length of his outings (from five innings to six).

Entering his age 26 season, Morrow appears ready to handle a full-season, meaning 200 innings, and 200 strikeouts, are a good bet—assuming, of course, that he stays healthy, which has been a problem in the past. There will be plenty of sleeper buzz heading into the season, so much so that he'll probably graduate from that designation by the time your draft rolls around. That means you'll have to reach a bit to secure his services. I think it'll prove worth it.

Edinson Volquez

2009: 4.35 ERA/1.32 WHIP/8.5 K/9 (49.2 IP)
2010: 4.31 ERA/1.50 WHIP/9.6 K/9 (62.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 3.99 ERA/1.36 WHIP/8.8 K/9 (107.5 IP)

After a stellar 2008 season in which he posted a 3.21 ERA and 1.32 WHIP to go along with 206 Ks in 196 innings, Volquez blew out his elbow in June of '09 and missed the first three months of last year rehabbing it. He struggled when he returned, but settled down in August, compiling a 3.48 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 in his final nine starts.

Oliver thinks ... his recent tendency to give out free passes at alarming rates will be fixed, or at least improved enough to keep his ratios in check. After racking up a 5.3 BB/9 the past two years, the system projects that number to be a full point lower this season, mirroring the 4.2 BB/9 he possessed in 2008.

I think ... he stands to see significant improvement in that area as well, which should help him last deeper into games, giving him plenty of opportunities to rack up wins for a Reds team expected to contend for the NL Central crown. He was clearly experiencing elbow issues in 2009, no doubt altering his throwing motion and contributing to the wildness. Last year, he was pitching on a 12-month layoff, and was predictably rusty in the finer points of pitching, like locating pitches with consistency.

Now that he's fully healthy and will be properly prepped heading into the season, there's no reason to think his walk rate won't return to previous levels. Also working in his favor were an inflated .326 BABIP, and an xFIP of 3.87, which was actually lower than the number he posted during his breakout 2008 season. Pitching half his games in Great American Launching Pad does him no favors, but Volquez took steps to combat that last season, registering a career-high 53.9 groundball percentage. As for the strikeouts, those should be of no concern: He's posted a K/9 above 8.5 every year in Cincinnati, and his fastball averaged 93.8 mph in '10, a tick above where it was at pre-TJ surgery. If he can manage 180 innings, Volquez represents top 25 upside, with a top 75 price tag.

Rich Harden

2009: 4.09 ERA/1.34 WHIP/10.9 K/9 (141 IP)
2010: 5.58 ERA/1.66 WHIP/7.3 K/9 (92 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.19 ERA/1.36 WHIP/9.6 K/9 (135 IP)

It's no surprise Harden pitched just 92 innings for the Rangers last year—that’s kind of his thing—but what was surprising were the outlandishly high ratios and the falling K/9 rate, all of which represented career lows. On the plus side, he did post a career high BB/9 of 6.1 percent. Oh, wait ...

Oliver thinks ... Harden's capable of replicating his 2009 line in Chicago. With seven very successful, albeit very abbreviated, seasons on his resume, it's certainly understandable why the system isn't willing to write the frustrating hurler off after one bad year. Further supporting Oliver's hope of a bounce-back: Harden is returning to McAfee Coliseum, where he holds a 2.98 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 302.1 career innings.

I think ... there are two ways to look at this:

Glass half full: He's only 29 years old, giving hope to the possibility last year was just a bad year; nothing more, nothing less. When he was sent down to Triple-A on a rehab stint, Harden had a 13.1 K/9, and, most importantly, walked only 3.1 hitters per nine. So the ability seems to still be there. His walk rate in the bigs was so out of line with his career average of 4.1 that it's reasonable to think his control issues were a result of a correctable mechanical or mental flaw. Plus, there's the return to Oakland, a much more pitcher-friendly ballpark than Arlington.

Glass half empty: Not only were his numbers down in nearly every single relevant category, and startling so at that, but he lost two miles an hour each off his fastball and slider—basically the only two pitches he throws. As a result, his swinging strike percentage fell to 7.7, down from 15.1 in '09. He was once considered a groundball pitcher, but Harden's fly ball percentage rose for the fourth year in a row, coming in at an extreme 51.2 percent. He may only be 29, but he has more than 800 innings on his already fragile body, and judging from the loss of velocity and control, he's starting to break down. Oakland hasn't even committed a spot in the rotation to Harden, and a role in the bullpen has been discussed.

The verdict: Argument B is much, MUCH stronger, but at the price he's going to cost you (free), Harden is worth a bench stash if you’re playing deep. You know, just in case.

Jorge de la Rosa

2009: 4.38 ERA/1.37 WHIP/9.4 K/9 (185 IP)
2010: 4.22 ERA/1.31 WHIP/8.4 K/9 (121.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 3.89 ERA/1.32 WHIP/9.2 K/9 (156 IP)

The wildly unpredictable hurler won 19 of 22 games over the final four months of ’09, compiling a 3.94 ERA with a 9.4 K/9. He started last year in much the same fashion, winning three of his first four starts and posting a 3.56 ERA/1.21 WHIP/8.0 K/9 line in the process. A torn flexor tendon in, fittingly, the middle finger on his pitching hand cost him all of May and June, but he returned to record a 3.56 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over his final 14 outings.

Oliver thinks ... he's in for a career year. With a strikeout rate projected to once again exceed 9.0, and the continued decline of his ratios, the system ranks De la Rosa just outside the top 50 starting pitchers. If he can remain malady-free, 200 innings—and thus a top 30 ranking—are possible.

I Think ... the best is yet to come for DLR, but not necessarily in the strikeout department. According to his .278 BABIP, he was a tad lucky last year, but his HR/FB ratio was inordinately high at 15.8, a four point increase from 2009. If that number regresses to somewhere in the neighborhood of his career norm (11.7), De la Rosa could post a HR/9 under 1.0 for the first time in his career, thanks primarily to his increasing ability to keep the ball on the ground and out of the thin Colorado air. Last year, he produced a 1.81 GB/FB ratio, which ranked among the top 15 best marks in the league.

The reason for the improved ratio—it had never been above 1.31 with the Rockies—can likely be traced to his use of a change-up as his preferred second pitch instead of a slider. According to PITCHf/x, he used his change-up, which has a heavy sink to it, 29.4 percent of the time in 2010, as opposed to only 8.7 percent in 2009. The use of his slider went in the other direction, from 23.5 percent in '09 to five percent last season. That proved to be a good thing, as his groundball-inducing change-up was one of the best in baseball.

The modified repertoire could have played a role in his falling strikeout rate, though, as the power fastball/slider combo he previously used is more conducive to high whiff totals. All that said, even if his K/9 hovers around 8.0, I’d still draft DLR as a top 50 pitcher simply based on the improving peripherals.

Daniel Hudson

2009: 2.32 ERA/0.94 WHIP/ 10.1 K/9 (147.1 IP in the minors)
2010: 2.45 ERA/0.99 WHIP/7.9 K/9 (95.1 IP)
2011 Oliver Line: 3.84 ERA/1.23 WHIP/8.4 K/9 (170 IP)

One of the White Sox' top pitching prospects entering the 2010 season, Hudson was called up in July, surrendered 11 runs in his first 15 innings, and was promptly traded to the Diamondbacks. Hudson then made 11 starts for Arizona to close out the season, endearing himself to fantasy owners by compiling a 1.69 ERA, a 0.84 WHIP, and a 7.9 K/9. Kenny Williams, I'm sure, was not pleased.

Oliver thinks ... he’s the real deal, and ready to perform like a No. 2 starters in 12-teamers. Coming in as the 24th ranked pitcher—directly ahead of Chris Carpenter, Ricky Nolasco and Chad Billingsley—Hudson will likely be drafted much lower, providing the opportunity for major value on draft day.

I think ... I'm all in. Hudson dominated at every level in his brief stint in the minors, averaging a lofty 10.6 K/9 while walking just 2.9 guys per nine, and that ability translated nicely in his first extended big league action. The hulking hurler (6-foot-3, 225) registered a fastball velocity of 92.5 in '10, and showed excellent secondary pitches, especially his change-up, which ranked as the most valuable change in the game according to Fangraphs linear weights.

The ERA expectations do need to be kept in check, though. Despite the sub-2.00 ERA in Arizona, his xFIP hovered around 3.75, and he received good fortune in his BABIP (.245), HR/FB rate (7.1), and strand rate (83.1-percent, fourth highest mark in the league). An increase in homers especially could be of concern, as his 45.5 flyball percentage coupled with a HR/FB rate expected to regress to the mean, could lead to a long ball problem similar to what Dan Haren suffered from last season. While that's reason to exhibit a modicum of restraint come draft day, the K/9 upside, polished repertoire, and low walk rate (1.8 BB/9 in Arizona), are enough to make me throw caution to the wind, and draft Hudson as a top 30 starter.

A quick look at a few other candidates:

Gio Gonzalez

2009: 5.75 ERA/1.71 WHIP/9.9 K/9 (98.2 IP)
2010: 3.23 ERA/1.31 WHIP/7.7 K/9 (200.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.24 ERA/1.42 WHIP/8.6 K/9 (177 IP)

Gonzalez suffered a big drop-off in his K rate between '09 and last year, but as you'll notice above, it was accompanied by a precipitous drop in his ERA, which more than made up for the decreased strikeouts. Pick a category, any category (other than K rate), and Gonzalez made positive strides in 2010, lowering his BB/9 by a full point, down to a manageable 4.1, and increasing his groundball percentage for a third straight season. He also showed improved effectiveness in all three of his pitches. Since he's still only 25, look for Gonzalez to take another positive step in his development, and while the ERA will probably be closer to 4.00 than 3.00—his xFIP came in at 4.18 last year—there's a good possibility his K rate rebounds and reaches the 8.5 K/9 threshold.

Bud Norris

2009: 4.53 ERA/1.50 WHIP/8.7 K/9 (55.2 IP)
2010: 4.92 ERA/1.48 WHIP/9.3 K/9 (153.2 IP)
2011 Oliver: 4.52 ERA/1.47 WHIP/8.6 K/9 (154 IP)

Norris held a 6.80 ERA and 5.4 BB/9 through his first nine starts, went down the minors, worked on his control, and returned late in June a different man. Well, a different pitcher, anyway. Over his final 18 starts, Norris produced a 4.17 ERA and lowered his BB/9 to 4.1, while still keeping his K/9 at a healthy 8.5. His minor league numbers suggest there's more improvement to be had in his control (3.7 career BB/9), and in 134.2 Triple-A innings, he holds a 2.67 ERA. If he learns to harness his potent arsenal, which includes a 93.6 mph fastball (average speed) and a plus, power slider, Norris could easily be a top 50 starting pitcher in 2011. Won't cost you much to find out, either.

James McDonald

2009 Line: 4.00 ERA/1.49 WHIP/7.7 K/9 (63 IP)
2010 Line: 4.02 ERA/1.38 WHIP/8.5 K/9 (71.2 IP)
2011 Oliver Line: 4.22 ERA/1.41 WHIP/8.3 K/9 (133 IP)

McDonald was sent to Pittsburgh in August and struggled initially, but thrived in September, allowing three or fewer runs in all six of his starts. All told, in 11 starts with the Pirates, he posted a 3.52 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and 8.5 K/9. A nice line, but there are warning flags. While his ERA impressed, his xFIP came in at 4.03 thanks to a unsustainably low 3.6 HR/FB ratio. Also, as with almost all the guys we’ve discussed, McDonald’s career BB/9 sits above 4.0, and he failed to pitch past the sixth inning in seven of his 11 starts with Pittsburgh, despite averaging 97 pitches per outing. If forced to choose between McDonald and Norris right now, I’d draft the latter, but a nice spring out of the former could easily sway my decision.

Posted by Chris Ryan at 6:59am

Monday, January 24, 2011

Impact prospects and outsiders 2011

I remember when I was eight. Life was simple, girls were simple. Would you believe I actually ran for fun back then? This may creep out some of my readers. Please bear with me as I reminisce.

Growing up, I lived in a house that backed up to a pet cemetery. That pet graveyard was actually located in the back of a human cemetery. Basically, I can thank Steven King for my lack of sleepovers and overflow of nightmares until I was ten.

Moving on, my buddies and I would play baseball in the large field adjacent to the statue of Jesus. The pet cemetery was actually a quiet, flat place with built-in headstones for bases. Don’t judge me, and we didn't use the headstones as bases. That's sick.

My goal as we ran through the knee-high grasses was to be the catcher version of Terry Pendleton. My love for baseball was born out of that cemetery, but those days and dreams have long since faded. My love for baseball remains. Prospects make me feel nostalgic about those times and, thus, have a special place in my heart.

One of my favorite parts of the rookie transition that differs baseball from the other two major sports is in the way this revealing takes place.

In basketball, rookies are signed out of college, courted by every shoe company, and ushered to the starting five. In football, rookies are drafted with every intention of winning playing time from the very beginning.

In contrast, the prospects of baseball are mostly refined over several years. Their breakouts tend to come mid-season. Pomp and circumstance surround their rumored call-up, which then parlays into arrival celebrations no matter what the standing of the team. It’s all about hope, I guess. This is my tribute to hope.

There are always a ton of “hot prospects” every year in the fantasy game. Undoubtedly, the names of Mike Moustakas, Jeremy Hellickson, Domonic Brown, Desmond Jennings, Mike Montgomery, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Jesus Montero, etc. are on the lips of every expert and the pages of every website. If you’re looking for those names you won’t find them here.

I want to dive into prospects that can impact 2011 that not every expert in the world is hammering into your head. Impact Prospects and Outsiders (or IPO) is what we’ll call them. Like an IPO is for a company, the chance to play is everything in the making or breaking of these outlier prospects.

Some IPOs for 2010 that found success were Neil Walker, Colby Lewis, Jaime Garcia, Chris Johnson, and Danny Valencia. Their formula for success was a combination of playing time and relative anonymity. I choose five for different reasons. Here they are in no particular order:

Hank Conger C ANA: I am proud that I get to be one of the first to proclaim 2011 the beginning of the Conger dynasty in Anaheim. After the Mike Napoli/Juan Rivera-for-Vernon Wellsdeal came together earlier this week, I realized it’s time to join the “Conger Line.”

Conger is no stranger to top prospect lists, but his value is extremely low to date. Napoli had a strong hold of the everyday catching duties, and this led to Conger’s disappearing prospect status. Upon Napoli's departure, the opportunity for Conger to realize his potential is now. He profiles as an offense-first catcher with a plus batting eye. Picture Mike Piazza with less power.

Double-digit home runs and a .290+ BA are very possible given an increase in at-bats. It’s not quite time to throw him in the same breath as Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, and even Jesus Montero, but the ceiling for this Futures game MVP is high enough that he should be considered in mixed leagues.

Tsuyoshi Nishioka SS MIN: To see a great YouTube video of Nishioka, click here. Tsuyoshi is a three-time Japanese Gold Glove winner, including 2010. He is a two-time stolen base king, and he is the reigning batting champion with a .346 BA last season.

Is he the second coming of Ichiro? No, but does he have a chance to be a top-10 shortstop? Yes, he does. Then again you would be doing a disservice to yourself if you didn’t place Japanese stats in their place. Exhibit A is Matt Murton setting the all-time hits record this past season.

With all that said, our Oliver forcasting engine sees a line like seven HR and 30+ SB with a .300+ BA. That would certainly place him in the top 10 of fantasy shortstops in 2011. Nishioka is worth a look.

Jason Kipnis 2B CLE: Kipnis is the prototype “scrappy” middle infielder. Normally, I despise these kind of stereotypes on hard working infielders who lack elite speed and power. In Kipnis’ case, it is actually very appropriate.

Never considered an upper-class prospect by many outside of Ohio, he has fought his way into the starting second base job discussion in Cleveland. His competition is less than impressive in Luis Valbuena and Jason Donald.

Kipnis looks to be a future 20 HR/.300 BA second baseman. For 2011, I’d reduce the homers down to 14 and the batting average to .280. If those numbers hold true, he could still be the perfect MI play for all leagues.

That being said, his lack of Triple-A experience could cause him to be on hold in Columbus through the first couple of months even though he was integral piece of the Clippers championship run. He hit .389 in 18 postseason AB with the club.

Kipnis was Cleveland’s Minor League Player of the Year last season, and my advice would be not to let anybody know more about him than you. Hopefully, this helped.

Jake McGee SP/CL TB: McGee may be my favorite name on this list. His mid-90s fastball has good late movement. He once was as touted a prospect in the Rays system as Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson, but injuries and failure of his secondary pitches have clouded his future with the club. Is he a starter or future closer?

Rays pitching coach Jim Hickey still sees McGee as a "starter" for Tampa very soon.. McGee, age 24, handled his duties as a reliever quite amazingly in 2010. It’ll be interesting to see how Maddon handles McGee going forward.

My opinion is that he’s got a chance to be an impact closer. His secondary stuff, including a decent slider, lead to the inevitability of a relief role. Plus, his minor league track record as a starter isn’t stunning (he had an elbow injury). As a reliever, he’s been money, and J.P. Howell isn’t that great.

Yunesky Maya SP WAS: Mays was the 2010 Domincan Winter League Picher of the Year. He used that impeccable control that was whispered about before he ever defected from his native Cuba (42:9 K/BB in 41 innings) to recapture the hearts of the D.C. brass. Look for him to gain the fourth or fifth rotation spot for the Nationals and show a very different pitcher than what we saw in his brief call-up in 2010.

Maya has potential to be a Colby Lewis-like find for the Nats in 2011. At only 29, all reports are the improvements he made in the Dominican are real. I think Lewis is a fair comparison, although I would discount the strikeouts a bit, and his control still needs to be seen. He’s an NL-only must draft and a sleeper in mixed leagues. In the deepest leagues, I really like his IPO value.

My final thought is more like a disclaimer. There was a handful of players I eliminated from this list. In fact, I started with an entire starting line-up even down to a full four-man rotation. The more I looked at the list, the red X’s began to fly all over my scratch piece of paper until there were only five. These five represent an even greater group of players that are to be had. Finding them first will still be up to you. I, along with other THT Fantasy guys, are here to guide your path.

Ben Pritchett loves his prospects, and he loves being asked questions about them. Shoot some comments, or you can reach him at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 4:11am

Deep sleepers, round four

In our previous search for sleepers, we looked for players who are expected to auction for less than $5 in a 12-team, deep-roster league. This time around we'll broaden our horizons with a couple players who recently found new homes, plus a blocked prospect.

Chris Capuano: The former-Brewer, now-Met made his return to the majors last season after missing two seasons due to injury and rehab and picked up right where he left off. Capuano is more or less a prototype, finesse lefty, mixing an 87-miles-per-hour fastball with some decent off-speed stuff. He's struck out 7.4 batters per nine innings for his career while limiting walks to 2.88 per nine, both rates you can expect Capuano to repeat in 2011.

His position with the Mets is fairly secure to start the season. He should open as one of five starters with Mike Pelfrey, Jon Niese, R.A. Dickey, and Chris Young. Swingman Dillon Gee and developing prospect Jenrry Mejia represent the only possible spring training competition currently on the roster. A mid-season return from Johan Santana could threaten Capuano's job security, although Dickey and Young are both just as likely to be on the chopping block.

Capuano is a fairly safe target to eat the occasional fantasy inning. As noted, he should have decent strikeout and walk rates. Oliver agrees, projecting rates of 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.2 walks per nine innings, although both rates appear a little low. Oliver doesn't expect many innings pitched in 2011 after he missed nearly all of 2008 and 2009, but his expected 3.95 ERA and 1.26 WHIP jive with his career rates.

Most importantly, let us not forget Capuano's new home, CitiField. Capuano's greatest foe is a career 1.27 home runs per nine innings rate, a number that should fall in 2011. A lower home run rate means more runners stranded and a lower ERA. It would not be surprising if Capuano put together an ERA closer to 3.70 than his career 4.23.

NL-only leagues should be eager to jump on Capuano, while only the deepest mixed leagues should view him as more than a match-up play. For $1 at the end of a draft, he's a solid addition while you scour the waiver wire for more valuable talent.

Robinson Chirinos: The Rays acquired Chirinos in the Matt Garza trade. He's more interesting as a real-life player than as a fantasy asset. The main attraction is the potential for an odd combination of position eligibility.

Chirinos began a transition from middle infield to catcher during the 2008 season. While the Rays will look at him mainly as a catcher, there have been whispers that the occasional appearance at shortstop could happen.

First, though, Chirinos has to make the 25-man roster. Kelly Shoppach and 2010 surprise John Jaso currently have catching duties locked up, although either player could pull a Dioner Navarro and vanish quickly.

The Rays also have plenty of utility infielders between Reid Brignac, Ben Zobrist, and Sean Rodriguez. Chirinos' easiest path to the majors is to outplay one of the catchers. An injury to a middle infielder could also help the utile catcher find his way onto the roster.

Chirinos shouldn't be expected to be a world beater at the plate, though he should be well above average offensively as a catcher. He spent the last two seasons in Double-A, where he put up remarkably consistent offensive campaigns.

Oliver's major league equivalent line for 2010 was a useful .292/.373/.490 with 16 home runs. The previous season was much the same, .294/.361/.517 with 20 home runs. In 2011, he's projected for a .278/.353/.471 slash with 10 home runs in 277 plate appearances.

As noted, the biggest hurdle for Chirinos will be finding playing time. AL-only owners who miss on the top tier of catchers should take a long look at Chirinos as a backup. Owners in mixed leagues should pay careful attention to the spring training performances of Chirinos, Jaso, and Shoppach before deciding whether he's worth targeting.

Brandon Belt: Perhaps no prospect experienced a more meteoric rise in 2010 than Giants first base prospect Brandon Belt. In his first pro season as a 22-year-old, Belt dismantled High-A and Double-A pitching before ending the season with a successful 13-game stint at the Triple-A level.

Currently, Belt is blocked at the major league level by Aubrey Huff, although the latter could be asked to move to left field, especially if Bruce Bochy has trouble finding productive at-bats between Pat Burrell, Cody Ross, Aaron Rowand and Mark DeRosa.

The Giants also have a recent history of using marginally-talented veterans as an excuse to hold back impact offensive talent (see Buster Posey). Combining those two factors makes Belt a risky target in all but the deepest mixed leagues.

So what is it we like about Belt? To put it simply, the potential for extremely cheap offensive production. He has a quick, line-drive-oriented swing that produces enough loft to bop 20 home runs annually. He pairs that with advanced plate discipline, including a walk rate above 15 percent in his three regular season stops (he also walked eight times in 78 plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League). He even has enough speed to swipe a handful of bags a year.

Oliver's major league equivalent line from 2010 was impressive, a .322/.407/.560 slash with 22 home runs, 76 total extra base hits, and 12 steals in 570 at-bats. Oliver is not nearly as bullish for 2011, but a .278/.353/.474 line with 14 home runs and five steals would be a welcome addition to most rosters. Belt certainly has the offensive profile to outperform the projection. The real limiting factor is just how many major league plate appearances he'll put together.

Ultimately, we can expect Belt to last in the minors until at least mid-May. The Giants just have too much veteran depth to sort through for them to risk a future Super-Two designation in arbitration. By then, Belt will be writing his own destiny. If he picks up where he left off in 2010, no number of Aubrey Huffs, Pat Burrells, or Mark DeRosas will be able to hold him back.

Belt is certainly a must-target in all but the most shallow NL-only leagues. Deep-roster mixed leagues with more than 14 teams should have a bench slot to stash him. Deep-roster leagues with 12 teams might want to acquire him via the waiver route.

Oliver Recap

Back in November, we ran a couple articles covering some players who might end up being nice value picks late in the draft. You can find the originals here and here. Today we'll take a look at what Oliver thinks of the players from that first article - Tim Stauffer, Travis Snider, and Ryan Raburn.

Tim Stauffer
What was said: The Padres' elite defense and spacious ballpark, combined with a strong strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) should make Stauffer a good fantasy producer in ERA and WHIP. The Padres' mediocre offense and a middling strikeout rate will limit his production in Ks and wins.

What Oliver thinks: A 3.97 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 150 innings are solid for an end-of-draft player, but, as previously noted, the strikeout rate (6.0 K/9) isn't likely to be impressive. Oliver is bearish about Stauffer's walk rate, expecting three walks per nine.

Travis Snider
What was said: The 23-year-old has the raw power for a real power outburst; he's definitely the kind of player who could rapidly develop into an everyday fantasy starter. He may fall under the radar due to a couple weak seasons but has a good shot at mid-20s home run numbers with plenty of RBI. Runs will depend on where he bats. Batting average and steals are likely to be lost categories.

What Oliver thinks: While a .256/.321/.454 batting line may not sound incredibly useful, it's worth noting that the variance in Snider's expected line is likely to be high given his age and fluctuating performances. The power expectation of 28 home runs is helpful, but it depends on how much playing time he can eek out. Oliver thinks he'll contribute well in runs (84) and RBI (96) in 696 plate appearances. That seems like a few too many plate appearances, so feel free to adjust those numbers down a tiny bit. Remember, we like Snider because he's a breakout candidate, not because of his expected performance.

Ryan Raburn
What was said: Multi-position eligibility including second base, solid four-category production, and the potential to snap off hot streaks that could make Luke Scott proud produce a nice late-round target. Playing time concerns are the primary worry.

What Oliver thinks: Raburn is currently projected for 554 plate appearances. If that holds up, he's an ideal fantasy utility fielder. Oliver also projects a .270/.333/.465 batting line with 21 home runs, 69 runs, 77 RBI, and five steals.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 4:10am (0) Comments

Friday, January 21, 2011

Top 50 fantasy relievers for 2011

Other 2011 fantasy rankings by position:
Catcher || First Base || Second Base || Shortstop || Third Base || Corner and middle infield || Outfield || Starting pitchers

To remind everyone: These rankings are based on position eligibility. Players who are eligible at multiple positions will be ranked in comparison with others at each relevant position. You will also note asterisks next to the names of certain players. These indicate health risks. Health concerns have been taken into consideration, as have expected talent and expected playing time to yield expected production.

Position eligibility and evaluation criteria for these rankings are explained here. The "o" in front of ERA, WHIP and K/9 stands for Oliver-projected*.
*Oliver's 2011 projections have been updated since I wrote down all of the prospective pitching statistics for my pitcher rankings. Due to the sheer volume of time it would take to update my positional rankings for pitchers, I am going to keep the Oliver 2011 category listed as is. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up to date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here

Rank      Player                Team             oSV     oERA      oWHIP      oK/9   Opening Day closer?
1         Joakim Soria          Royals           38      3.20      1.12       9.1       Y
2         Neftali Feliz         Rangers          36      3.36      1.18       8.6       Y
3         Mariano Rivera        Yankees          35      3.00      1.08       7.4       Y
4         Brian Wilson          Giants           38      3.41      1.23       9.4       Y
5         Heath Bell            Padres           36      3.48      1.24       8.5       Y
6         Joe Nathan*           Twins            36      3.43      1.16       8.5       Y
7         Carlos Marmol         Cubs             36      3.52      1.31      11.4       Y                            
8         Drew Storen           Nationals        32      3.47      1.20       8.9       Y
9         J.J. Putz             Diamondback      38      3.84      1.31       7.8       Y
10        Jose Valverde         Tigers           38      3.81      1.27       8.2       Y
11        Andrew Bailey         Athletics        32      3.66      1.24       8.2       Y
12        Jonathan Papelbon     Red Sox          36      3.48      1.20       8.9       Y
13        Francisco Rodriguez   Mets             38      3.78      1.30       8.9       Y
14        Matt Thornton         White Sox        36      3.22      1.17       9.3       Y
15        Chris Perez           Indians          36      3.90      1.30       9.0       Y
16        Huston Street         Rockies          26      3.47      1.20       8.8       Y
17        John Axford           Brewers          40      4.15      1.45       9.0       Y
18        Brad Lidge            Phillies         32      4.21      1.38       8.5       Y
19        Craig Kimbrel         Braves           36      3.98      1.44      11.1       Y
20        Octavio Dotel         Blue Jays        30      4.02      1.33       9.3       Y
21        Francisco Cordero     Reds             38      4.06      1.40       7.3       Y
22        Jonathan Broxton      Dodgers          30      3.40      1.22      10.1       Y
23        Koji Uehara           Orioles           0      3.57      1.18       7.4       Y
24        Ryan Franklin         Cardinals        32      4.08      1.32       6.0       Y
25        J.P. Howell           Rays              6      3.79      1.26       8.7       Y
26        Brandon League        Mariners          2      3.83      1.27       7.1       Y
27        Leo Nunez             Marlins          36      4.04      1.29       7.3       Y
28        Brandon Lyon          Astros           22      4.00      1.32       6.2       Y
29        Fernando Rodney       Angels           18      4.55      1.50       6.9      Y**
30        Joel Hanrahan         Pirates          30      3.70      1.27       9.8      Y**
31        Evan Meek             Pirates          10      3.84      1.33       7.7       N
32        Aroldis Chapman       Reds              0      3.89      1.34      10.4       N
33        David Aardsma         Mariners         38      4.09      1.38       8.2       N
34        Kevin Gregg           Orioles          34      4.14      1.39       7.6       N
35        Daniel Bard           Red Sox           4      3.51      1.23       9.2       N
36        Mike Adams            Padres            2      3.33      1.19       8.6       N
37        Hong Chi Kuo          Dodgers           6      3.07      1.12       9.1       N
38        Ryan Madson           Phillies          6      3.63      1.21       8.2       N
39        Jason Motte           Cardinals         2      3.76      1.24       9.0       N
40        Rafael Soriano        Yankees          36      3.37      1.20       8.5       N
41        Matt Capps            Twins             4      3.90      1.24       7.0       N
42        Takashi Saito         Brewers           0      3.65      1.25       8.1       N
43        Kerry Wood            Cubs              2      4.04      1.32       8.5       N
44        Luke Gregerson        Padres            2      3.43      1.20       8.9       N
45        Mike Gonzalez         Orioles          36      4.19      1.32       8.7       N
46        Jonny Venters         Braves            4      4.21      1.41       6.7       N
47        Sergio Romo           Giants            2      3.34      1.15       8.7       N
48        Sean Marshall         Cubs              2      3.54      1.23       8.3       N
49        Tyler Clippard        Nationals         4      3.87      1.31       9.0       N
50        Jason Frasor          Blue Jays         4      3.95      1.35       7.6       N

*Assuming health, which means assuming the amount of health reasonably expected from them.

This early in the offseason, relief pitchers and closers are hard to rank. You know the reliable big names—Joakim Soria, Neftali Feliz, Mariano Rivera, etc. through Jose Valverde—but even within this tier of elite reliables with strong grasps over ninth inning duties, history shows that anything from preseason injury (Joe Nathan 2010) to loss of control (Carlos Marmol 2008) to seeking money over role (Rafael Soriano 2011) could limit a reliever's prospective value.

With this in mind and knowing that an elite closer will likely cost you big, despite largely being valuable for just one category (saves), is drafting an elite closer for big money really worth doing?

Most experts will tell you the answer is no. The winner of the THT Fantasy experts competition, Dave Chenok, will argue in a future THT article that you should invest in an elite reliever.

My view, as I explained a couple of years ago, is that relievers are a poor return on your investment. While an elite reliever will undoubtedly help pad your team's ratios and add to its strikeout totals, a poor reliever will still get you those saves without hurting your team's bottom line when you spend elite-reliever money on your starting pitchers. Keep in mind, a medley of three or four closers will accrue only 200-250 innings for your team. Even with a low 1,400 innings pitched maximum (I usually play 1,600), that accounts for less than 18 percent of your team's total innings.

I also have a theory for Roto leagues that closers on worse offensive teams tend to accrue better saves totals. Teams like the Royals with poor offenses are going to win 60-75 games and it is unlikely they are going to routinely blow their opposition out by four or more runs. In my view, such closers get more chances and those chances are more spread out (less likelihood of long winning streaks), meaning closers on bad teams ultimately get solid saves totals. I have never proven this theory and obviously this strategy will not work in H2H leagues, which require consistency, but it is how I operate and how I have finished in the top third of my league in saves for three seasons running without spending big on closers.

Keep in mind one thing: saves are just one category in fantasy. You can place at the top of a rotisserie league without them. Last year, the winner of one of my primary money leagues (Roto Auction, standard 12-team 5x5) won despite placing last or second to last in the saves category. In an H2H league, you can even punt saves and focus on the other nine categories.

This all in mind, let's break down the rankings.

My first 10 listed players are those with the best stuff and who likely have the best holds on their jobs. Most of the reliever rankings here are based on likelihood of accumulating saves, not the underlying peripherals. That is why Leo Nunez and Fernando Rodney are listed ahead of better pitchers such as Mike Adams and Hong Chi Kuo.

The Pirates have not announced whether Evan Meek or Joel Hanrahan will be their closer for 2011 and the team's use of the two in wake of trading away Octavio Dotel hardly gave much of an indication to how the Pirates are likely to lean. Hanrahan ended up accumulating more saves last season (six to Meeks' four) and has better numbers in every major peripheral category (FIP, xFIP, tERA, K/9, BB/9, K/BB), with Meeks having the ERA advantage in 2010. I've ranked Hanrahan ahead of Meeks because he's a better pitcher who got more chances in 2010, but if you draft either pitcher this preseason before the Pirates announce their closer, make sure you grab the other. I would not be shocked to see either start the year closing (though I believe Hanrahan will ultimately end the season with the job).

With Billy Wagner retired and Craig Kimbrell likely to close in Atlanta (sorry Jonny Venters), can you name any other lefty closers out there besides a possible Matt Thornton? White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen has previously shown his willingness to use less elite relievers to keep Thornton in the real life role he deserves—the high leverage reliever—and the White Sox recently signed Jesse Crain to a three-year contract. I'm not saying that Crain is the closer, only that Thornton is not guaranteed a closing job. That is not to say that Thornton will not be one of baseball's best relievers again next season, just that his role is not a guarantee.

Some random random thoughts on relievers:

Jonathan Papelbon is ranked so low because I have a feeling he gets traded or removed from the role before the end of the season to make way for closer-of-the-future Daniel Bard. If and when this happens is speculative, which is why Papelbon is still ranked in the top 15 and Bard is not even ranked in the top 35. Take note of Papelbon's recently declining peripherals, however.
I really like Drew Storen for next year. A lot.
I also love Carlos Marmol, as reflected by his ranking and my being a die-hard Cubs fan, but if Marmol's walk rate does not improve, things could look a lot more like 2009 than 2008 or 2010 for the Cubs closer. Do not expect him to touch his major league record K/9 of 15.99 next season, but 1.5 is entirely plausible.
I like Joe Nathan, if healthy, and he's progressed back from injury well according to reports, but I'm avoiding him. I hate high-cost closers, let alone ones carrying injury risks. Still, he might come cheap compared to what he can do if you can stomach the risk.
I'm guessing 2008-2009, not 2010, was the fluke for J.J. Putz, who was injured over that period. Still, the 34-year old's velocity is about a full mph down from where it was in his glory days for Seattle.
The only reason Huston Steet is ranked so low (No. 18), is that he is a perpetual injury risk. In terms of talent, he ranks on par with modern-day Papelbon.
I hate Francisco Cordero for 2011, let alone in general. He is in the final year of his contract, has awful control, and was completely unreliable at times last season. With the Reds finally in their window to compete and with Aroldis Chapman in the fold as a reliever for 2011, I expect CoCo to have a short leash this season.
The relievers ranked 32-40 represent the 10 I think best positioned to poach saves in 2011, by reason of shaky jobs, health concerns or split-duties. Matt Capps (No. 42) could be valuable for a periodic save and will close for the Twins if Nathan's health does not hold up, while Rafael Soriano gives the Yankees a reliable option to give Mariano Rivera adequate rest from time to time.
Andrew Cashner should not be a reliever and the Cubs should not have spent more for Matt Garza than the Brewers did for Zack Greinke. That's more a rant than a reliever note.
The Orioles have Kevin Gregg and Mike Gonzalez in the fold should Koji Uehara flounder in the closing role in 2011. I do not expect this to happen and think the Orioles ninth inning this season will be much more stable than it was in 2010. Somewhere in the world, Andrew Bassan can sigh in relief.
Jason Frasor could be a dark horse to close, ahead of Jon Rauch. You didn't hear that from me.

I hope everyone has enjoyed these ranking posts. I will continue to update the rankings throughout the preseason to reflect free agent signings, roster moves and team announcements, but the analysis will remain unchanged. Some time in February, I will post an article with updated rankings and comments/feedback/criticism/concerns regarding my rankings from other Fantasy writers from The Hardball Times and around the internet.

That said, my fourth semester of law school begins this week and runs through mid-May. I will try to write fantasy articles as often I have time, but forgive me if I don't have time. For now, enjoy, as promised, the beta version of the xWHIP 2.1 calculator (note: 2.1 beta uses 2008 runs/outs values per Stat Corner's tERA primer, rather than the four-year data from the xWHIP 2.0 post).

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 4:28am

Dynasty ranking follow-up

First I'd like to thank those who took the time to read and comment on Dynasty ranking: Top 25 players age 25 or younger. The rankings process certainly wasn't easy; there were a great many variables to take into account when compiling our top-25 lists. Differences in each of our weighting of those variables was rather apparent in our differing rankings.

In putting together my rankings, I found I had a difficult time determining whether a player's ceiling or his floor was more important, and thus tried to find the best blend of both. I had a clear preference in ranking hitters above pitchers, simply based on the volatility and inherent risk of injury pitchers carry. In ranking pitchers, I put National Leaguers higher than their American League counterparts, with Felix Hernandez serving as the exception based on his elite skills. Another variable that played a key role in a few of my more controversial rankings was age.

With that in mind, let's look at my three most controversial player rankings and the rationale behind each.

1: Madison Bumgarner | My rank 14 | Jeffrey Gross' rank 24 | Paul Singman's rank 25
Bumgarner serves as a perfect example of where age and league carried a lot of weight in my ranking. Bumgarner's numbers alone wouldn't have allowed him to slot at 14 on my list, but taking into account that he didn't turn 21 until Aug. 1 last season, and is cost controlled for some time, and thus staying in the National League with the Giants, he becomes a great deal more valuable. Last year, as a rookie, Bumgarner posted a 4.03 xFIP, 6.97 K/9, 2.11 BB/9 and a 45.1 groundball percentage. To justify his lofty ranking on my list he'll need to improve his K/9; as you'd expect from my ranking I expect him to do just that.

This time last year there were questions abound about Bumgarner's drop in velocity. In May, minor league baseball's website featured an article discussing Bumgarner adjusting his mechanics, and with the adjustment, adding velocity to his fastball. The article also discussed Bumgarner beginning to use a cutter in his pitch mix.

Checking out his FanGraphs page, one can see his fastball velocity averaged 91.3 mph, up from the high 80s as was reported near the end of 2009 and spring training in 2010. His velocity last year was still a little below the mid-90s fastballs he was reportedly blazing by low minor league hitters in 2008, so it leads hope to possibly regaining still a few more ticks. Regardless, Bumgarner was able to feature a four-pitch mix last year that included a mid-80s slider (according to FanGraphs pitch classification), which may actually be the cutter he says he developed (a 6.8 mph velocity difference between his 2009 slider and his 2010 slider would seem to support that thought).

He also featured a curveball he threw in the mid-70s, a change-up he threw at 83.2 mph on average, and his fastball. Of his pitch repertoire, his change-up, a pitch that was described as rudimentary by Baseball America after he was drafted, was his most effective according to pitch run values at FanGraphs. In fact, all three of his non-fastball pitches had positive run values, and his fastball was the only pitch posting a negative run value. It appears that losing some velocity on his fastball may have forced Bumgarner to become more of a pitcher, and could benefit him tremendously going forward (or perhaps I'm wearing rose colored shades as a Giants fan), especially in the event he's better able to use a heater that he once used to terrorize Single-A hitters.

2: Stephen Strasburg | My rank 25 | Jeffrey's rank 3 | Paul's rank 10
Leading up to making the dynasty ranking lists, Stephen Strasburg quickly became the player I was most interested to see ranked on Jeffrey and Paul's lists. Jeffrey clearly appears to be the least risk averse of us, as he's aggressively placed him in his top five. I'm clearly the most risk averse, placing him 25 on my list. Entering 2011 at just 22 years of age, time is certainly on Strasburg's side in terms of a full recovery to pre-injury dominance. Tommy John surgery certainly isn't the scare it may have once been, but was reason enough for me to place him at the bottom of my rankings.

Considering the varying recovery periods of different pitchers, banking on a full return to health and effectiveness at the end of 2011, or even the beginning of 2012, may prove wishful thinking. A quick Google search relating to Tommy John surgery yielded the website eorthopod.com which estimates complete recovery occurring in 85-90 percent of athletes. Certainly a fantastic rate of success, but not bullet proof.

Couple that with players, such as Francisco Liriano, who are able to return to full health, but not in the estimated 12-month period, and you begin to see a snowball effect of concerns. Further looking at Liriano's case, you'll see that his average fastball velocity in 2008 (he missed all of 2007 season for recovery) was 90.9 mph and in 2009 was 91.7, a far cry from his 94.7 mph pre-surgery heater. Even last season, a full three years removed from surgery, his fastball checked in at 93.7.

While it's hard to argue with his results last year, owners who kept him following his outstanding 2006 rookie season had to endure a completely lost 2007 season, a marginally useful 2008 in which he spent most of the year in the minors, and a terrible 2009. Even with last season in the books, continued good health remains a question for Liriano, and will be a question for Strasburg when he's able to return to the mound for a full season.

Really, it's anyone's guess as to why Strasburg suffered a torn UCL. Perhaps it was simply having fired too many bullets and the surgery will allow him to continue making hitters look foolish for years to come. Maybe the tear is the result of bad mechanics, or worse yet, the result of having the absurd ability to chuck a baseball in excess of 100 mph. Look no further than fellow 100 mph-plus man Joel Zumaya for an example of a body that hasn't been able to sustain good health while blowing away opposing batters.

As a baseball fan and human being, I hope to see Stephen Strasburg return to the mound and delight fans with his otherworldy stuff. As a fantasy owner, I'm just not willing to pay the premium Jeffrey and Paul are for a player who, to me, epitomizes boom or bust with little middle ground.

3: Jason Heyward | My rank 1 | Jeffrey's rank 7 | Paul's rank 3
When compiling my top 25 my first thought was that Evan Longoria would be my unquestioned top ranked player, as he is on both Jeffrey and Paul's lists. However, instead of simply looking at positional scarcity concerns (which are downplayed for outfielders in five-outfielder formats), I dug into Longoria's underlying stats. The first notable trend for Longoria is a downward slide in power since he burst onto the scene in 2008. His ISO marks have steadily declined from .259 in 2008 to .245 in 2009 and a substantially lower .213 in 2010. As one would probably guess, his sliding ISO is largely due to a lower home run rate, which is the product of a downward trending HR/FB rate (2008: 19.4 percent; 2009: 17.6 percent; 2010: 11.1 percent).

For a player who should be entering his power peak years, this is reason for pause. One logical explanation is that he's traded power for a reduction in his strikeout rate, which has improved each season (2008: 27.2 percent; 2009: 24.0 percent; 2010: 21.6 percent), and with a reduction in strikeouts he's seen an increase in batting average from .272 to .281 and ultimately .294 last season. Concerns about whether Longoria is going to be able to improve his power numbers while keeping his lower strikeout rate and higher average gave me reason enough to look into Jason Heyward as the top player on my list.

The first thing that appeals to me about Heyward compared to Longoria is that he's four years younger, and thus has the potential for four more years of upper echelon production. Heyward played most of the 2010 season at age 20, and was able to post a jaw-dropping 14.7 percent walk rate (3.7 percentage points better than Longoria's best mark, which came last year) and a number I'd expect to increase as he continues to gain major league experience. Heyward also posted an acceptable strikeout rate at 24.6 percent (3 percent worse than Longoria's mark last year, but better than his rookie mark), also a rate I expect to improve with experience.

Just looking at Heyward's home run total last year, 18, might cause some to wonder about his power and home run potential, but one shouldn't worry—scouts have always rated his power as a plus tool Further helping quell concerns, Heyward's average home run true distance of 403.3 feet was 6.1 feet greater than the average National League true distance of 397.2 feet.

Looking at his batted ball data leads to optimism for a potential spike in homers as soon as this year, as only 27.2 percent of the balls he put in play were fly balls. If Heyward is able to add some loft to his swing and hit more balls in the air, he has a shot at truly using his 16.8 percent HR/FB rate and popping 30 plus homers.

I expect him to hit for an average north of .280 with 25 plus home runs, 10-15 stolen bases, and a combined total of runs and RBI greater than 190. In his peak years, I expect Heyward to eclipse 30 home runs regularly and hit for an average north of .300 while piling up monster run and RBI totals. The biggest knock on Heyward seems to be his ability to stay healthy, as he has missed playing time in the minors in past seasons and landed on the DL last year due to a deep bone bruise to his thumb. Considering the injury that cause him to miss time last year, and his age when he suffered his previous injuries, I'll assume he'll be able to stay healthy as he physically matures. Ultimately, it was a four year age gap and my projected peak seasons that put Heyward on top of my list.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:09am

Thursday, January 20, 2011

2011 Top 10 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants

Los Angeles Dodgers: Top 10 Prospects

1. Dee Gordon / SS / Gordon stayed pretty much par for the course in his move up to Double-A in 2010, which is about what I was expecting. It means he is a solid bet to be an effective everyday shortstop, with the possibility for greater things still looming if he can learn to be more patient at the plate and more consistent on the basepaths.
2. Rubby De La Rosa/ SP/RP / De la Rosa sits comfortably in the mid-90s with his fastball and even touches triple digits occasionally. His slider and change-up show promise, too, and his groundball rate in enviable. His endurance doesn't seem to be lacking, either. So what's not to like? His somewhat pedestrian strikeout rate is the only thing keeping his stock from exploding.
3. Zach Lee / SP / Lee has the raw, natural talent of a young ace with his exciting three-pitch mix, athleticism, and competitiveness. There's a lot to like and a lot to prove.
4. Aaron Miller / SP/RP / Miller has a dangerous slider to go along with his above-average fastball, but his command is a work in progress, and his lack of a third pitch hurts his chances. Despite his age, 23, he has upside and could settle in as a mid-rotation starter one day.
5. Chris Withrow / SP / If Withrow could ever harness his enviable three-pitch mix, he could be dangerous. In fact, his curveball could be one of the best in baseball with control on his side. His mechanics are mostly to blame, and my aggressive ranking after a lousy season means I'm holding out hope that he will figure it out soon.
6. Kenley Jansen / RP / Jansen, a converted catcher, came out of nowhere in 2010, using his mid-90s fastball and tremendous natural movement to dominate not only the minor leagues but the 27 innings of big-league ball he saw, too. He has the upside of a closer but has to develop a consistent second pitch in order to get there.
7. Allen Webster / SP / Webster has an average three-pitch mix at present and the potential for more. He gained confidence in his change-up in 2010, giving him a sturdy building block for success. Increased velocity and sharpened command are next on the checklist.
8. Jerry Sands / 1B/OF / Sands posted a fantastic 2010 and has the strength, build, and patience of a major league slugger, but he struggles with good breaking stuff and has a slow swing, leaving him too reliant on his upper-body strength.
9. Scott Elbert / RP/SP / Elbert's chronic lack of command is inching him closer and closer to being moved to the bullpen permanently. But his nasty fastball/curveball combination gives him a chance to excel in a relief role.
10. Garrett Gould / SP / Ethan Martin, Trayvon Robinson, and Ivan DeJesus received a long look, but the slow, consistent growth in Gould won me over. While his change-up has progressed nicely, his curveball has a chance to be a game changer.

Los Angeles Dodgers: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Clayton Kershaw / SP
2. Dee Gordon / SS
3. Rubby de la Rosa / SP/RP
4. Zach Lee / SP
5. Aaron Miller / SP/RP
6. Chris Withrow / SP
7. Kenley Jansen / RP
8. Allen Webster / SP
9. Jerry Sands / 1B/OF
10. Scott Elbert / RP/SP

San Francisco Giants: Top 10 Prospects

1. Zack Wheeler / SP / Wheeler's velocity jumped up a peg in 2010 without a loss in movement, but his secondary offerings and command did not follow suit. He is a hurler with youth, velocity, and impressive movement on his side.
2. Brandon Belt / 1B / Belt put together an amazing 2010 campaign, showing everything you look for in a middle-of-the-order prospect from a statistical standpoint. I have little doubt that his patience and contact skills will continue forward, but, judging by his swing, I don't see his home run numbers continuing, which is a serious negative for a first baseman. His swing fits more with the line-drive, gap-to-gap crowd.
3. Gary Brown / OF / Brown is a superb athlete with plus speed. At the plate he has a little power projection to work with, but he needs to clean up his swing and develop a consistent, patient approach.
4. Eric Surkamp / SP / Surkamp has below-average velocity but more than makes up for it with his knee-buckling curveball. He will be making the always-important transition to Double-A in 2011, where we will see how well his strikeout rate holds up.
5. Jorge Bucardo / RP/SP / Bucardo knows what he is good at. He keeps the ball low and lives in the strike zone. He frustrates hitters and has even managed a solid strikeout rate despite his below-average stuff.
6. Thomas Joseph / C/1B / As a catcher, Joseph's power has the potential to be special. Whether or not he can handle catching is another story, as his pro debut got ugly at times. His plate approach needs a serious overhaul, too.
7. Ehire Adrianza / SS / It's pretty clear that power is not a part of Adrianza's game, but he has some useful speed and a solid plate approach to go along with his defensive prowess. If everything goes well, he will become an average big league shortstop.
8. Rafael Rodriguez / OF / Rodriguez sat in limbo in 2010, again showing the athleticism and tools that all stars are made of, but not producing anything in terms of results. Even the advanced plate discipline he hinted at in 2009 was nowhere to be found. But I'm certainly not giving up yet. I just hope he gets a crack at full-season ball this year.
9. Thomas Neal / OF / Neal's home run power and walk rate faded in 2010, which is a bad sign for a wannabe corner outfielder. His gap power and ability to make contact are real, but he needs to show more if he plans to be a major league regular.
10. Francisco Peguero / OF / Peguero's plus speed, strong defense, and solid ability to hit for contact could carry him for a while, but it won't carry him to the majors if his terrible walk rate doesn't improve. He is a talented player, but I have strong doubts about him.

San Francisco Giants: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Madison Bumgarner / SP
2. Buster Posey / C
3. Pablo Sandoval / 3B
4. Zack Wheeler / SP
5. Brandon Belt / 1B
6. Gary Brown / OF
7. Eric Surkamp / SP
8. Jorge Bucardo / RP/SP
9. Thomas Joseph / C/1B
10. Ehire Adrianza / SS

Posted by Matt Hagen at 4:05am (6) Comments

Offensive sleepers for 2011

It’s the middle of January, and the bitter cold of winter has set in. Even more depressing, it’s been nearly three months since a meaningful baseball game has been played. As we wait for that glorious day when pitchers and catchers report again, fantasy players across the land are searching high and low, trying to uncover the best “sleepers” for the upcoming season.

I’ve heard many different definitions on what exactly qualifies someone as a sleeper. Some say it’s simply a player whose statistics for 2011 are projected to be significantly better than his previous season. Others argue that a sleeper is merely someone whose expected value is far superior to his average draft position (ADP). Another camp may believe that it’s a player who will make a strong fantasy impact, but isn’t considered to be a relevant option or targeted in drafts.

These sleepers can come in all shapes and sizes. Promising rookies looking to make an immediate impact in their debut. Veterans attempting to come back from various injuries and ailments that may have derailed their previous season. Some players have found an expanded role with their club, increased playing time or even a better lineup slot. All of these factors can lead to a player being severely undervalued on draft day, and therefore a sleeper in my book.

Listed below are a few of these players at each position. These are their stories.

Catchers

J.P. Arencibia (Mock Draft Central ADP: 313): With John Buck’s departure, he’s had the starting gig in Toronto virtually gift wrapped for him. He has tremendous power upside as evidenced by his .301/.359/.626 line with 32 home runs at Las Vegas last season. Though he may potentially drain your batting average, he’s a great flyer as your seocond catcher.

Russell Martin (ADP: 333): How quickly we forget that Russell Martin had been considered a top-five catcher as recently as last season. The move to the powerful Yankee lineup should increase his run and RBI numbers. Plus, he still has 15/15 potential, which represents huge upside for a second catcher.

Chris Ianetta (ADP: 344): I believe it’s much better to gamble on someone with power potential than someone who’s “meh” across the board. Again this year, Ianetta’s being counted on to be the full-time backstop, but this year he doesn’t have Miguel Olivo to steal at-bats away. His HR/FB and FB percenages remain steady, and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit to see Ianetta blast 25-30 home runs in that thin mountain air this season.

First Basemen

Ike Davis (ADP: 197): Davis displayed solid power potential in his first year in the Big Apple. While his low contact percentage will keep his average down, 25HR/90+ RBI plays very well around pick No. 200 as a corner infielder.

Juan Miranda (ADP: 428): Everyone loves 28-year-old minor league veterans getting their first real shot at full time at-bats, right? So long as Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers are committed to giving Miranda 500 at-bats, there’s a cheap .280/20+HR to be found here.

Second Basemen

Aaron Hill (ADP: 174): Did I mention that I love players with power potential? I know that Hill disappointed last season, but he’s as good a candidate as anyone for a big rebound. His .196 average on balls in play was among the unluckiest in all of baseball. Though he won’t approach his monster ’09 numbers, 25+ HR from a middle infielder are still nothing to sneeze at.

Danny Espinosa (ADP: 355): Has shown 20/20 potential and has been penciled in as the starting second basemen in Washington. They let Ian Desmond learn on the fly last year and believe enough in Espinosa’s upside to do the same with him. Again, may be a batting average risk, but gamble on the upside.

Shortstops

It’s hard to find much of anything here, as this is the weakest position in the fantasy game this season. If you can’t pay the premium for one of the stars, you could try…

Jhonny Peralta (ADP: 261): Average will never wow anyone, but should have 15 HR with 75+ runs and RBI. No real upside, but late in the draft you at least know what you’re getting.

Third Basemen

Chris Johnson (ADP: 273): Very impressive .308/.337/.481 in half season at Houston. xBA and contact percentage point to the average not being sustainable, but Johnson possesses 20+ HR power. He’s another solid late-round flyer as corner infielder or bench depth.

Edwin Encarnacion (ADP: 332): Former top prospect who may be on his last chance. xBA shows upside, though he’ll never hit higher than .275. Has more than enough power, though, and will hit 25+ HR if he can stay healthy for the entire season.

Outfielders

Hunter Pence (ADP: 84): Extremely consistent through his first four years, and now entering his age-27 season. .280/85/25/85/15 should be considered his floor, which in my mind makes him at least a top-15 outfielder.

Chris B. Young (ADP: 166): Another highly-rated prospect who struggled for years to put it all together, Young nearly went 30/30 last season. Still only 27, there’s a great chance we haven’t yet seen his ceiling. For him to be the 41st outfielder off the board is just plain ridiculous.

Ryan Raburn (ADP: 328): Did anyone outside of Detroit realize that this guy went .315/.366/.534 with 13 HRs in the second half last season? He’s been very impressive when given the opportunity for full-time at-bats and will be the opening day left fielder. A .280 average, 20+ HR and solid counting stats would be a terrific bargain for a 4th or 5th outfielder in mixed leagues.

These players represent just a few of the better value plays that can be found in the later rounds on draft day. As always, comments are welcomed and appreciated, and be sure to check back next week as I explore pitchers in a similar fashion!

Posted by Dave Shovein at 4:07am

The Hardball Times Fantasy Mock Draft Results

On Sunday, Jan. 16, 2011, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted a fantasy baseball team on Mock Draft Central for a 25-player team, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1500 IP limit.

Teams were constructed to resemble team rosters with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder, five outfielders and three bench players.

Who drafted who, where and why? We have broken down this 25-round draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19, and 20-25—and in the following weeks, on Jan. 28, Feb. 4, Feb. 11, and Feb. 18, each of the participants in the draft, in attempt to answer this question and provide you with insight as fantasy baseball drafts begin to gear up for 2011, will give their insight into each of their picks.

Below is a list of who participated in the draft and their respective teams. The draft order was random. I have asked each participant to vote on the three teams that they believe were the best drafted and have assigned point values, based on the results of that vote, in parentheses next to each participant's name.

First-place votes were worth three points, second-place votes were worth two points, and third-place votes were worth one point. By the author's own votes system, the three "best" perceived draft teams belonged to Ben Pritchett (Big Ben), Dave Chenok, and me. Who do you think drafted the strongest teams? We welcome everyone to civilly weigh in with their thoughts in the comments section below.

You can access a chart of the entire draft, by round, by clicking here. Below is a simplified breakdown of each team by position. Yes, in hindsight, I do realize that I forgot to draft a corner infielder. Oops. I guess I will have to put out a mock waiver claim on Chase Headley or David Freese!

Though a few teams got virtually no love (votes) from the other drafters, I usually take that as a sign of one's prized assets flying under the radar on draft day rather than that of a bad draft...at least assuming you didn't draft Yuniesky Bentacourt.

Remember, drafting is only 40 percent of the game. The other 60 percent is monitoring the waiver wire over the course of the season (for which Josh Shepardson and I will have you covered with analysis, weekly!)!

Draft Position No. 1: Vincent Carmela of The Hardball Times
Vote Points: 1 (11th)

Position   Player               Team
C          Geovany Soto         Cubs
1B         Paul Konerko         White Sox
2B         Rickie Weeks         Brewers
SS         Hanley Ramirez       Marlins
3B         Casey McGehee        Brewers
MI         Reid Brignac         Rays
CI         Ike Davis            Mets
OF1        Shin-Soo Choo        Indians
OF2        Corey Hart           Brewers
OF3        Vernon Wells         Blue Jays
OF4        Nick Swisher         Yankees
OF5        Peter Bourjos        Angels
UTIL       Dustin Ackley        Mariners
SP1        Yovani Gallardo      Brewers
SP2        David Price          Rays
SP3        Clay Buchholz        Red Sox
RP         Joe Nathan           Twins
RP         Kyle Farnsworth      Rays
P          Matt Garza           Cubs
P          John Lackey          Red Sox
P          Ervin Santana        Angels
P          Derek Holland        Rangers
BN         John Buck            Marlins
BN         Aaron Harang         Padres
BN         Daniel Bard          Red Sox

Draft Position No, 2: Josh Shepardson of The Hardball Times
Vote Points: 9 (4th)

Position   Player                Team
C          Carlos Santana        Indians
1B         Albert Pujols         Cardinals
2B         Ian Kinsler           Rangers
SS         Alexei Ramirez        White Sox
3B         Alex Gordon           Royals
MI         Eric Young Jr.        Rockies
CI         Kevin Youkilis        Red Sox
OF1        Jay Bruce             Reds
OF2        Drew Stubbs           Reds
OF3        Delmon Young          Twins
OF4        Carlos Beltran        Mets
OF5        Magglio Ordonez       Tigers
UTIL       David Ortiz           Red Sox
SP1        Cole Hamels           Phillies
SP2        Chad Billingsley      Dodgers
SP3        Ryan Dempster         Cubs
RP         Joel Hanrahan         Pirates
RP         Craig Kimbrel         Braves
P          Jeremy Hellickson     Rays
P           Jordan Zimmermann     Nationals
P          Aroldis Chapman       Reds
P          Joel Peralta          Rays
BN         Kila Ka'aihue         Royals
BN         Marc Rzepcynski       Blue Jays
BN         Matt LaPorta          Indians

Draft Position No. 3: Ray Flores of Fantasy Baseball Cafe
Vote Points: 7 (5th)

Position   Player                Team
C          Matt Wieters          Orioles
1B         Miguel Cabrera        Tigers
2B         Martin Prado          Braves
SS         Starlin Castro        Cubs
3B         Ian Stewart           Rockies
MI         Alex Gonzalez         Braves
CI         Prince Fielder        Brewers
OF1        Matt Kemp             Dodgers
OF2        B.J. Upton            Rays
OF3        Carlos Quentin        White Sox
OF4        Andres Torres         Giants
OF5        Jason Kubel           Twins
UTIL       Billy Butler          Royals
SP1        Ubaldo Jimenez        Rockies
SP2        Cliff Lee             Phillies
SP3        Roy Oswalt            Phillies
RP         Jose Valverde         Tigers
RP         Jonathan Broxton      Dodgers
P          Johan Santana         Mets
P          Javier Vazquez        Marlins
P          Scott Baker           Twins
P          Marco Scutaro         Red Sox
BN         Raul Ibanez           Phillies
BN         Johnny Damon          FA
BN         Jose Lopez            Rockies

Draft Position No. 4: Adam Kaplan of Game Of Inches
Vote Points: 6 (6th)

Position   Player              Team
C          Mike Napoli         Angels
1B         Mark Reynolds       Orioles
2B         Dustin Pedroia      Red Sox
SS         Asdrubal Cabrera    Indians
3B         Evan Longoria       Rays
MI         Kelly Johnson       Diamondbacks
CI         Michael Young       Rangers
OF1        Alex Rios           White Sox
OF2        Jason Heyword       Braves
OF3        Ben Zobrist         Rays
OF4        Logan Morrison      Marlins
OF5        Franklin Gutierrez  Mariners
UTIL       Scott Rolen         Reds
SP1        Roy Halladay        Phillies
SP2        Chris Carpenter     Cardinals
SP3        Ricky Romero        Blue Jays
RP         J.J. Putz           Diamondbacks
RP         Fernando Rodney     Angels
P          Brandon Lyon        Astros
P          Gavin Floyd         White Sox
P          Kevin Slowey        Twins
P          A.J. Burnett        Yankees
BN         Jesus Montero       Yankees
BN         Coco Crisp          A's
BN         James Loney         Dodgers

Draft Position No. 5: Dave Chenok, the winner of The Hardball Times "Compete Against The Experts" fantasy league competition
Vote Points: 10 (T-2nd)

Position   Player                     Team
C          Jorge Posada               Yankees
1B         Adam Dunn                  White Sox
2B         Chone Figgins              Seattle
SS         Troy Tulowitzki            Rockies
3B         Ryan Zimmerman             Nationals
MI         Jose Reyes                 Mets
CI         Chipper Jones              Braves
OF1        Justin Upton               Diamondbacks
OF2        Carlos Lee                 Astros
OF3        Nick Markakis              Orioles
OF4        Bobby Abreu                Angels
OF5        Austin Jackson             Tigers
UTIL       Vlad Guerrero              Rangers
SP1        Adam Wainwright            Cardinals
SP2        Francisco Liriano          Twins
SP3        CJ Wilson                  Rangers
RP         Jonathan Pappelbon         Red Sox
RP         Francisco Rodriguez        Mets
P          Jonathan Axford            Brewers
P          Brad Lidge                 Phillies
P          Jair Jurjens               Braves
P          Edison Volquez             Reds
BN         Lance Berkman              Cardinals
BN         Freddie Freeman            Braves
BN         Clayton Richard            Padres

Draft Position No. 6: Zach Sanders of RotoHardball and Fangraphs
Vote Points: 4 (T-8th)

Position   Player              Team
C          Brian McCann        Braves
1B         Aubrey Huff         Giants
2B         Robinson Cano       Yankees
SS         Ian Desmond         Nationals
3B         Michael Cuddyer     Twins
MI         Neil Walker         Pirates
CI         Derrek Lee          Orioles
OF1        Matt Holliday       Cardinals
OF2        Hunter Pence        Astros
OF3        Juan Pierre         White Sox
OF4        Jose Tabata         Pirates
OF5        Rajai Davis         Blue Jays
UTIL       Mitch Moreland      Rangers
SP1        Jon Lester          Red Sox
SP2        Mat Latos           Padres
SP3        Shaun Marcum        Brewers
RP         Brian Wilson        Giants
RP         Heath Bell          Padres
P          Brandon Morrow      Blue Jays
P          Ted Lilly           Dodgers
P          Ryan Madson         Phillies
P          Luke Gregerson      Padres
BN         Brian Fuentes       Athletics
BN         Johnny Cueto        Reds
BN         Kyle Drabek         Blue Jays

Draft Position No. 7: Ben Pritchett of The Hardball Times
Votes Points: 12 (1st)

Position   Player               Team
C          Joe Mauer            Twins
1B         Joey Votto           Reds
2B         Howie Kendrick       Angels
SS         Stephen Drew         Diamondbacks
3B         Jose Bautista        Blue Jays
MI         Juan Uribe           Dodgers
CI         Adam Lind            Blue Jays
OF1        Andre Ethier         Dodgers
OF2        Jayson Werth         Nationals
OF3        Michael Bourn        Astros
OF4        Adam Jones           Orioles
OF5        Alfonso Soriano      Cubs
UTIL       Hideki Matsui        Athletics
SP1        Tim Lincecum         Giants
SP2        Zack Greinke         Brewers
SP3        Jered Weaver         Angels
RP         Carlos Marmol        Cubs
RP         Francisco Cordero    Reds
P          John Danks           White Sox
P          Ian Kennedy          Diamondbacks
P          Brian Matusz         Orioles
P          Kevin Gregg          Orioles
BN         Chris Sale           White Sox
BN         Edwin Jackson        White Sox
BN         Kurt Suzuki          Athletics

Draft Position No. 8: Brett Greenfield of Fantasy Phenoms
Vote Points: 4 (T-8th)

Position   Player               Team
C          Buster Posey         Giants
1B         Justin Morneau       Twins
2B         Brian Roberts        Orioles
SS         Rafael Furcal        Dodgers
3B         David Wright         Mets
MI         Yunel Escobar        Blue Jays
CI         Kendry Morales       Angels
OF1        Carl Crawford        Red Sox
OF2        Jacoby Ellsbury      Red Sox
OF3        Colby Rasmus         Cardinals
OF4        Shane Victorino      Phillies
OF5        Will Venable         Padres
UTIL       Luke Scott           Orioles
SP1        Tommy Hanson         Braves
SP2        Trevor Cahill        Athletics
SP3        Madison Bumgardner   Giants
RP         Chris Perez          Indians
RP         Evan Meek            Pirates
P          Frank Francisco      Rangers
P          Jhoulys Chacin       Rockies
P          Tim Hudson           Braves
P          Brett Myers          Astros
BN         Homer Bailey         Reds
BN         Mike Minor           Braves
BN         Rick Porcello        Tigers

Draft Position No. 9: Jeffrey Gross of The Hardball Times and Game Of Inches
Vote Points: 10 (T-2nd)

Position   Player            Team
C          Russell Martin    Yankees
1B         Carlos Pena       Cubs
2B         Chase Utley       Phillies
SS         Derek Jeter       Yankees
3B         Pablo Sandoval    Giants
MI         Danny Espinosa    Nationals
CI         NONE (Oops…)      N/A
OF1        Ryan Braun        Brewers
OF2        Nelson Cruz       Rangers
OF3        Mike Stanton      Marlins
OF4        Desmond Jennings  Rays
OF5        Angel Pagan       Mets
UTIL       Manny Ramirez     FA (Rays?)
SP1        Josh Johnson      Marlins
SP2        Dan Haren         Angels
SP3        Max Scherzer      Tigers
RP         Drew Storen       Nationals
RP         Matt Thornton     Tigers
P          Koji Uehara       Orioles
P          Colby Lewis       Rangers
P          Ricky Nolasco     Marlins
P          Travis Wood       Reds
BN         Brandon League    Mariners
BN         Joba Chamberlain  Yankees
BN         Takashi Saito     Brewers
BN         Ryan Raburn       Tigers

Draft Position No. 10: Tim Heaney of KFFL.com
Vote Points: 2 (10th)

Position   Player                  Team
C          Chris Iannetta          Rockies
1B         Adrian Gonzalez         Red Sox
2B         Dan Uggla               Braves
SS         Jimmy Rollins           Phillies
3B         Alex Rodriguez          Yankees
MI         Gordon Beckham          White Sox
CI         Pedro Alvarez           Pirates
OF1        Andrew McCutchen        Pirates
OF2        Chris B. Young          Diamondbacks
OF3        Denard Span             Twins
OF4        Jason Bay               Mets
OF5        Dexter Fowler           Rockies
UTIL       Julio Borbon            Rangers
SP1        Justin Verlander        Tigers
SP2        Wandy Rodriguez         Astros
SP3        Josh Beckett            Red Sox
RP         Joakim Soria            Royals
RP         Huston Street           Rockies
P          Gio Gonzalez            Athletics
P          Jorge De La Rosa        Rockies
P          Ryan Franklin           Cardinals
P          Matt Capps              Twins
BN         Bud Norris              Astros
BN         Gaby Sanchez            Marlins
BN         J.J. Hardy              Orioles

Draft Position No. 11: Paul Singman of The Hardball Times
Vote Points: 5 (7th)

Position   Player                Team
C          Victor Martinez       Tigers
1B         Mark Teixeira         Yankees
2B         Aaron Hill            Blue Jays
SS         Alcides Escobar       Royals
3B         Adrian Beltre         Rangers
MI         Tsuyoshi Nishioka     Twins
CI         Sean Rodriguez        Rays
OF1        Carlos Gonzalez       Rockies
OF2        Ichiro Suzuki         Mariners
OF3        Grady Sizemore        Indians
OF4        Brett Gardner         Yankees
OF5        Travis Snider         Blue Jays
UTIL       Domonic Brown         Phillies
SP1        CC Sabathia           Yankees
SP2        Brett Anderson        A's
SP3        Dan Hudson            D'backs
RP         Mariano Rivera        Yankees
RP         Neftali Feliz         Rangers
P          Jonny Venters         Braves
P          Octavio Dotel         Blue Jays
P          Rafael Soriano        Yankees
P          Hiroki Kuroda         Dodgers
BN         David DeJesus         A's
BN         Jed Lowire            Red Sox
BN         Cliff Pennington      A's

Draft Position No. 12: Lane Rizzardini of Bruno Boys
Vote Points: 0 (12th)

Position   Player                  Team
C          Miguel Montero          Diamondbacks
1B         Ryan Howard             Phillies
2B         Brandon Phillips        Reds
SS         Elvis Andrus            Rangers
3B         Aramis Ramirez          Cubs
MI         Mike Aviles             Royals
CI         Adam LaRoche            Nationals
OF1        Josh Hamilton           Rangers
OF2        Curtis Granderson       Yankees
OF3        Torii Hunter            Angels
OF4        Tyler Colvin            Cubs
OF5        Ryan Ludwick            Padres
UTIL       Omar Infante            Marlins
SP1        Felix Hernandez         Mariners
SP2        Clayton Kershaw         Dodgers
SP3        Matt Cain               Giants
RP         Andrew Bailey           Athletics
RP         David Aardsma           Mariners
P          Jonathan Sanchez        Giants
P          James Shields           Rays
P          Phil Hughes             Yankees
P          Jaime Garcia            Cardinals
BN         Placido Polanco         Phillies
BN         Nyger Morgan            Nationals
BN         Miguel Tejada           Giants

A great big thank you to Mock Draft Central for hosting the draft and to everyone who participated.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 4:06am

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Capturing the Black Swan

This past weekend, I started reading Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan. I held off on reading it for a while because I heard him speak a few times and read enough about the book to figure I had the general gist, but I received a copy as a gift last year and so, I decided to dive in. Already, I can see this book being a potential gold mine for fantasy sports ruminations. In fact, one of the fields he makes reference to early in the book—when talking about the relevance of this train of thought—is gambling, which is essentially the way I choose to approach fantasy baseball and something I’ve also been reading more about recently.

Some of the core tenets of the book aren’t exactly revolutionary at face value, but they’re the type of thoughts that become increasingly consuming the more you think about them. This is because they are nearly infinitely applicable. A main premise of Taleb’s is that the impact of difficult-to-predict, outlier type events on the arc of the world’s history is extremely profound.

The real fantasy implication in the early part of the book comes from two points. First, what we don’t know is more important than what we do know. Because we have done as much possible to account for what we do know, that information—or the resulting events there from—has very little opportunity to harm us compared to that which we don’t know.

Second, due to both an excessive reliance on what we do know and an inflated perception of the completeness of our knowledge, we both lack the imagination to conceive of and tend to underestimate the likelihood and impact of the extreme outlying events that shift paradigms do so much to shape the world – Black Swans.

Jose Bautista was a Black Swan. Black Swans emerge each year to varying degrees. As Taleb states, unpredicted highly impactful events occur more often than we expect them to and their impacts are huge. We can parse the idea of how predictable the emergence of players like Ryan Braun and Francisco Liriano were (both were indeed making mockeries of their competition in the minors), but ultimately they succeeded beyond even the wildest of expectations. The main point here is that these types of events will occur and we need to consider them within the realm of possibility—even if they’re highly unlikely.

An unknown Blue Jay jacking 54 dingers, Albert Pujols getting hurt and missing 130 games, or playing a full season and hitting .287, Mark Prior recapturing something like his 2003 form—a small number of events like these happen each year, invariably. Now, it would be beyond foolish for us to try to predict what those few absolutely inexplicable things will be and it would be even more foolish to “bet” on those types of things occurring when assembling our team. The risk is just too great. Practically speaking, what we should do is keep aware that a few of these kinds of things will happen and be open to such occurrences.

As high level fantasy players, we sometimes talk ourselves out of the reality of what is occurring on the field. I talked myself out of believing in Jose Bautista for a long time; I wanted no part of him. Yet, Bautista was doing basically unprecedented things, smacking homers seemingly every night. My reaction was to retreat deeper into my shelter of “advanced knowledge,” his further defiance of the tenets of such knowledge paradoxically reinforcing my belief that he was just that much more due for that much more drastic a regression.

Instead of looking at dramatic outliers as a way to reinforce the rules they are presently defying, perhaps we should also pause and consider whether we may be passing up the truly game-changing opportunity by trying too hard to disregard such performance. Obviously, I’m not recommending one go crazy and drop proven valuable commodities to chase an obscure player who hits three homers in five games. Also, I’m certainly not advocating that we abandon the knowledge base and empirically-based decision-making processes we’ve developed. What I am saying is that perhaps we should integrate the mere fact that inexplicable cases are bound to occur more soundly into our models of thought.

Further, from an investment standpoint, there’s no way I and so many others should have passed on the opportunity to inexpensively acquire Bautista for so long in 2010. Hindsight is 20/20 and all, but quite simply, the impact catching that Black Swan lightning in a bottle is so disproportionate to what you lose by taking a few unsuccessful lost cost shots to nab it, that it’s a good bet from a simple leverage point of view.

In a sense, I think this is a skill that really separates the handicapping sharps from the square public bettors. I’ve recently been reading more and more about professional sports gamblers and thinking about what I should incorporate into my fantasy perspective. One point that seems to also jibe with my take on some of Taleb’s writing is that in addition to thinking about playing the team, sometimes you have to think about just playing the number.

Before wrapping up, I’d like to mention one more point that Taleb makes in the early part of Black Swan. Taleb cautions us about being too secure in our knowledge about things. He implies that our tendency to try to “Platonify” an incredibly complex world often, in turn, precludes us from seeing the Black Swans. It urges us to explain them away, to ignore them because doing so protects that which we know against the uncertainty of that which we don’t know and the potential implications of the unknown on the known systems – systems we build lives, careers, institutions, and societies on.

Remember, the fantasy community is going to get many, many things wrong. In fact, there’s a good chance that none of the folks you might look to for guidance about fantasy baseball will predict a single one of the three most profound influencers of the 2011 season. But that’s perfectly fine, because the flip side of knowing your capabilities is to know your limitations. We must retain a healthy skepticism, but also continually remind ourselves not to cast as false all that doesn’t adhere to our current understandings

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:34am

The closers market

Could this be the year hitter's figure out Mo? (Icon/SMI)

The bell has made its final toll for Trevor Hoffman, Mo can't be the same ol' Mo forever, and excuse me for not wanting my crème de la crème closer to be coming off Tommy John surgery. Looking at the closer landscape for 2011, it appears to be lacking the lights-out, no-questions options that existed a few years ago.

The ageless Mariano Rivera showed the first signs of his mortality with a K/9 rate that dipped below 7.0 for the first time since 2000. While I still expect him to remain effective in 2011, I certainly don't feel I can trust him as much as I did a few years ago.

The once-considered "dominant closers of the future," Jonathan Papelbon and Jonathan Broxton, are now precariously situated as the closers on their respective teams. Joakim Soria could be traded, and Neftali Feliz may find himself in the starting rotation someday.

NL West nutcases Brian Wilson and Heath Bell share none of the concerns of the closers just mentioned and have been extremely effective the past two years, but do not have nearly the security of a Rivera or Joe Nathan circa 2007.

To sum it up, 2011 is looking like a good year to avoid drafting that elite closer in round six, seeing how there is a lack of "elite" options at closer.

Consequently, it should be more tempting to make a minimal investment in closers on draft day and instead plan to ride the closer carousel throughout the year.

However, no one likes to come out of the draft without at least one fairly secure closer, so you may be inclined to draft a middle-of-the-pack closer after the top-tier options come off the board. In theory, I have no problem with that strategy, but here are a couple of closers I would avoid selecting for that role:

Andrew Bailey | Team: A's | 2010 Stats: 49 IP, 25 SV, 1.47 ERA, 7.71 K/9, 2.39 BB/9

Since taking over the A's closing role in 2009, Bailey has been lights out, posting an ERA below 2.00 both years. After a dominating rookie season in which he struck out over a batter an inning and saved 26 games (and won him a Rookie of the Year award), his sophomore campaign was less impressive.

Performance-wise, it was still impressive, netting the shiny 1.47 ERA listed above; however, he missed time with back injuries and underwent surgery on his right elbow at the end of the season. Even though reports say Bailey will be ready to assume his closer role by opening day, I have my concerns about how long he will stay in that role.

First off, the noticeable drop in strikeout rate from 9.83 to 7.71 is mildly concerning. I do not believe ineffectiveness is the most likely cause for his removal; however, the more a reliever relies on balls in play to generate outs, the more vulnerable he is to a change in luck. That said, Bailey is pitching in a spacious park with a tremendous defense behind him.

More concerning are the recent signings of Grant Balfour and Brian Fuentes. Although I do not believe these signings indicate that the A's don't trust Bailey or believe he is healthy, they do make him much more expendable. Billy Beane is not one to sit idle at the trading deadline, and Bailey is exactly the type of expendable piece he would move for prospects.

When I sum the injury and trade risk Bailey represents, I probably will let someone else draft him as their "elite" closer.

Francisco Rodriguez | Team: Mets | 2010 stats: 57 IP, 25 SV, 2.20 ERA, 10.52 K/9, 3.30 BB/9

Despite the punching-of-his-girlfriend's-dad fiasco that ended his season, Rodriguez is heading into 2011 with a contract and the Mets' closer role. The funny thing is, the Mets are likely to do everything in their power to make sure he does not keep that position for the whole season.

This is because Rodriguez has a ridiculous $17.5 million option for 2012 that vests if K-Rod finishes 55 games. As Eno Sarris at Amazin Avenue explains, 55 games finished is not an easy number for a closer to reach, though most established closers will reach 55 if they stay healthy.

In terms of performance, Rodriguez actually had a good year, with his strikeout rate going up to 10.5 while his walk rate fell to 3.3. Still, I don't want to own the closer whose management is looking for any excuse to strip of him of his role.

Posted by Paul Singman at 4:01am

Even more dynasty rankings

A few weeks ago, Josh Shepardson, Paul Singman and I put out our lists of our top 25 fantasy players under the age of 25. Last week, Paul took a second look at his list, reworking his rankings and expanding the list to 32. In a petty attempt to one-up Paul (to pay Peter), here is some insight into my top 35 or so dynasty players under the age of 25 when the season starts:

+-----+---------------------+----------+
| New | Name                | Old Rank |
+-----+---------------------+----------+
|  1  | Evan Longoria       |  1       |
|  2  | Felix Hernandez     |  2       |
|  3  | Carlos Gonzalez     |  4       |
|  4  | Stephen Strasburg   |  3       |
|  5  | Jason Heyward       |  7       |
|  6  | Justin Upton        |  6       |
|  7  | Clayton Kershaw     |  14      |
|  8  | Mat Latos           |  5       |
|  9  | Jay Bruce           |  8       |
| 10  | Carlos Santana      |  9       |
| 11  | Domonic Brown       |  10      |
| 12  | Andrew McCutchen    |  11      |
| 13  | Desmond Jennings    |  12      |
| 14  | Tommy Hanson        |  N/R     |
| 15  | Jeremy Hellickson   |  13      |
| 16  | Mike Stanton        |  15      |
| 17  | Buster Posey        |  16      |
| 18  | Yovani Gallardo     |  17      |
| 19  | David Price         |  18      |
| 20  | Colby Rasmus        |  19      |
| 21  | Gordon Beckham      |  20      |
| 22  | Billy Butler        |  21      |
| 23  | Jesus Montero       |  22      |
| 24  | Brett Anderson      |  23      |
| 25  | Madison Bumgardner  |  24      |
| 26  | Pedro Alvarez       |  25      |
| 27  | Jhoulys Chacin      |  N/R     |
| 28  | Mike Moustakas      |  N/R     |
| 29  | Kris Medlen         |  N/R     |
| 30  | Neftali Feliz       |  N/R     |
| 31  | Elvis Andrus        |  N/R     |
| 32  | Daniel Hudson       |  N/R     |			
| 33  | Jordan Zimmermann   |  N/R     |			
| 34  | Matt Wieters        |  N/R     |
| 35  | Mike Minor          |  N/R     |			
+-----+---------------------+----------+

As you might notice, almost all of the top 25 guys on this "redone" list were on my original top 25 list. The exception is Tommy Hanson, whom I just plain forgot about (oops!). I still believe these 25 players (plus Pedro Alvarez) represent the best current dynasty players in fantasy.

I emphasize the phrase current for two reasons. First, a major league read player with statistics under his belt is more proven and less risky for the short term, in my view, than a player with no major league statistics, let alone a lack of Triple-A numbers. Second, I include each player's expected 2011 value in his ranking. Playersd are penalized if they are not expected to play in 2011. This is why guys like Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas and Kris Medlen are ranked so low.

Stephen Strasburg is the exception because if he is truly progressing back from injury as positively as reports indicate, his talent is just too superior to ignore. He is the kind of guy worth paying a premium for to retain in the future, despite limited expected 2011 contribution (pitching 40 innings down the stretch, however, might make some nice quality reliever-equivalent production).

Some very talented players who are unlikely to play much, if at all, in 2011 (I'm looking at you, Mike Moustakas) are not on this list this year, but will likely creep in to the top 25 in coming seasons. If you want more information on why Moustakas is not on this list, consult the original rankings post comments section, which beat the topic like a dead horse. I'm shocked no one gave me any flak for my man-crush on Gordon Beckham (a .285/20-plus/10-plus capable second base talent on par with Rickie Weeks, but with more batting average).

The notable changes to the original top 25 rankings regard a slight bump down for Strasburg (from No. 3 to No. 4 because I just love that CarGo guy), a jump up in position for Jason Heyward, who now rounds out the top five (because he is just that good, walking more than 90 times in his age 21 rookie year), Clayton Kershaw moving up from No. 14 to No. 7 (because I did not realize that Kershaw is younger than Jeremy Hellickson, bumping Latos down a few slots to make room for Heyward and Kershaw, and Alvarez getting kicked off the top 25 to make room for Hanson. If anyone has further questions about my updated top 25 rankings, please post them in the comment below. The rest of this post will focus on the new names, players ranked No. 27-35 (note that Alvarez, originally in my top 25, is ranked No. 26).

First, the nine names that just missed the cut for my top 35 list. These include Brandon Beachy (like his potential, but I have no firm indication as to his future role and full-time major league ETA), Starlin Castro (loads of defensive talent, but his offense needs more proving before I am convinced he really is 15/30 capable), Aroldis Chapman (his lack of control and below-average change-up will limit his value, as will his short term role as a reliever), Travis Snider (I love the potential, but he needs to prove some production first), Eric Hosmer (too far away), Bryce Harper (even further away), Pablo Sandoval (again, love the potential, but his body type will not age well and he needs to prove that 2010, not 2009, was the fluke), Logan Morrison (the White Sox should have traded Ozzie Guillen for him) and Freddie Freeman (others love him, I want to see what he does first). These players all have high ceiling and could vault up the value chart in 2011, but there are too many question marks surrounding downside, role, playing time, etc. that limit their prospective value.

Of the newly ranked names, Jhoulys Chacin is my favorite. He is only 23 years old, but has struck out 23.9 percent of the 631 batters he has faced in his brief major league career (148.1 innings, 151 Ks). Chacin also profiles as a solid groundball pitcher (46.6 percent GB, 32.2 pedrcent fly balls), which should play well at Coors Field.

Though his control, like that of teammates Ubaldo Jimenez and Jorge de La Rosa, is well below average (bottom quintile among all pitchers to toss 10-plus innings last season), it is not entirely unbearable in light of his strikeout and groundball rates. Chacin posted a 3.54 FIP and 3.74 xFIP last season, which squares nicely with, though slightly higher than, his 3.28 ERA mark. I expect a mid-to-high 3s ERA, an average WHIP (around 1.32, according to the xWHIP calculator), and a bellyful of strikeouts with wins upside. Chacin could be a second-tiered ace in the making.

Moustakas is a big talent who, despite suspect defense, might stick at third base if not Ryan Braun-bad due to a glut of first base/DH types on the Royals' 40-man roster (Billy Butler, Kila Ka'aihue, Eric Hosmer, etc.). Moustakas will likely change positions eventually, however.

Oliver thinks Moustakas is capable of hitting .280 with around 30 home runs and a handful of stolen based in the immediate future, and, assuming the Royals bring Moustakas up in 2012, he will provide great fantasy value at third base. Moustakas is certainly a player worth owning now in keeper leagues, but I think he is not yet a top 25 talent under the age of 25 because he is at least a year away from full-time play.

I love Kris Medlen. I think he is a top 25-capable starting pitcher with strong strikeout upside. He is ranked so low only because he will be recovering from Tommy John surgery for most of 2011. Medlen should return in the second half, and, assuming he is not too rusty, should provide 50-90 strong innings for the Braves. Keep him on your radar.

Like Paul, I really have no interest in ranking relievers on my list. That is why I did not create a top 40 list, which would have undoubtedly included Chapman. Neftali Feliz, however, is an exception for two reasons. First, Feliz was raised as a starter throughout most of his tenure in the Braves/Rangers minor league systems and was quite successful in that role before being converting into an emergency reliever in 2009. There is a realistic chance that the Rangers convert Feliz back into a starter in the near future. Second, even if Feliz is not re-converted into a starter, he established himself as one of baseball's premier closers last season, striking out more than a batter per inning, keeping the walks under control (6.7 percent BB rate, 2.34 BB/9), and setting the rookie saves record (40) in the process. Feliz is something special.

According the Bill James 2011 Handbook, Elvis Andrus was baseball's fastest baserunner. He was nothing short of elite in getting from first to third on singles and scoring from both first and second base. Unfortunately, raw speed does not always translate into smart baserunning and instincts.

While Andrus stole 32 bases last season, he was also caught 15 times and Ron Washington, taking notice, often gave Andrus a red light. Andrus could easily steal 40-plus bases, but to be given the opportunity, he will have to be more efficient. That is not to say that he won't be in the future, only that, as a largely 2.5 dimensional player (runs, stolen bases, mediocre batting average), he is going to have to prove he is capable of remaining "elite" in at least one of his production categories before I am going to rank him higher.

In short, the White Sox got (pale) hosed when they traded Daniel Hudson, a No. 2 type with upside, for Edwin Jackson. Hudson has good strikeout stuff (22.6 percent strikeout rate last season) and slightly above average control (2.55 BB/9), but the groundball rate (only 35.2 percent last season) might be an issue at Chase Field. A concert of Hudson's groundball rate and home park is the only thing keeping him outside the top 25 list.

Jordan Zimmermann. He throws hard, strikes out a good number of batters, and has good control over his pitch mix. Zimmermann is an exciting talent to watch in 2011 as he removes himself further in time from Tommy John surgery. I expect big things from him, but his injury past forces me to temper expectations.

In light of impressive Double-A numbers entering the 2009 season, Matt Wieters was once touted as a premier hitting talent capable of sticking at catcher. Two seasons later, like Alex Gordon before him, this Double-A wonder has been a large disappointment, hitting only .266/.328/.393 with a mere 20 home runs over his brief major league career (226 games).

For a guy once projected to easily ding 20-plus a season, Wieters' 98 RBI for his career to date has to be slightly underwhelming for those who have had him in keeper leagues for the past two seasons. Nonetheless, Wieters is only 24 and has the upside/pedigree such that we don't want to give up on him yet. I am expecting a .280-plus batting average with 17 home runs from him next season, but do not hold me to it. This is a case of perceived downside canceling out upside.

What is Mike Minor's role in 2011? Like many a Braves prospect (like Brandon Beachy and Julio Teheran), Minor is a talented pitching prospect with a lot of strikeout (9.00-plus K/9) and control (sub-3.00 BB/9) upside who could make a huge impact for both the Braves and fantasy owners. Minor seems to be both the closest to the majors amomg him, Beechy and Trout and also the likeliest of the three to round out the back of the Braves' deep starting rotation in 2011. If Minor accumulates 150 or more innings next season, I will kick myself for not ranking him higher.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 1:26am

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Twisting Oliver: September standouts

With minor league call-ups filling major league rosters, and part-time players thrust into full-time roles, the final month of the season is notorious for producing big numbers from relatively unknown players. Some of those September performances are indicators of future success, and some can be written off as hot streaks against watered-down competition. In looking back at the final month of 2009, we see that some dude named Jose Bautista led the league with 10 homers (he only totaled 13 the whole season), and a Cincinnati Reds outfielder arrived from Triple-A to hit five homers and steal seven bases, which he followed up by totaling 22 home runs and 30 stolen bases in 2010. That player? Drew Stubbs, of course. We also met Julio Borbon, whose four homers in 37 games proved to be a result of a fortuitous HR/FB ratio rather than a sign his power was blossoming. (He managed just three in 137 games last year.)

Moving our attention to September 2010, let's look at four of the top hitting performers during the final month that will have owners debating whether to believe in, or bypass come draft day.

Kila Ka'aihue:

September Line: .261 AVG/15 R/6 HR/18 RBI (110 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .260 AVG/76 R/26 HR/80 RBI (582 PAs)

After being stranded at Triple-A for three straight seasons, the Royals finally made room for Ka’aihue in early August. He struggled initially, prompting some to prematurely label him a "Quad A" All-Star. When September hit, though, so did Ka'aihue.

Oliver Thinks ... the skill set that made Ka'aihue one of the most patient boppers in all the minors will translate nicely to the big leagues. In over 1,110 Triple-A plate appearances, the Big Pineapple averaged a bomb every 16 at-bats, and his BB/K was an excellent 1.2. Slated to see every day action at first base and DH in 2010, Oliver projects a home run every 18 at-bats, and a still stupendous 0.97 BB/K for Ka'aihue, which, if he does that, will place him firmly in the top 15 of fantasy first basemen.

I Think ... if he amasses close to 600 PAs, the Oliver projection may even be on the low-end. Ka'aihue's penciled into the cleanup role for the Royals, right behind .300 machine Billy Butler, which should lead to plenty of RBI opportunities. And considering his ability to draw a free pass, he'll be on base enough to put up a sneaky-good run total for a lumbering 1B/DH (think a young Adam Dunn).

His 49.3 FB% was on the extreme end, which isn’t such a bad place to be; of the 11 qualified players (400 plate appearances) to post a FB% of 49 or greater last season, only Jonny Gomes (18) failed to hit at least 23 home runs. If Ka’aihue avoids a massive slump, and if he sees a slight bump in his HR/FB ratio (it sat at 11.4 last year), he has a legitimate shot at 30 homers over a full season.

The .217 batting average he posted last year is worrisome, but it was primarily due to a crummy .231 BABIP. The .260 average Oliver projects appears spot-on—his MLE average came in it at .264 last year. Although, with some extra luck on top of his already anticipated improvement in the BABIP department, his average could easily hit .280. My suggestion: draft him based on the 2011 Oliver line, but feel free to secretly hope for a little more.

Ryan Raburn:

September Line: .358 AVG/18 R/5 HR/18 RBI (116 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .275 AVG/53 R/17 HR/60 RBI (415 PAs)

The versatile Raburn, in his age-29 season, finally received extended playing time late in the year. He didn't disappoint, smacking 13 homers in the final two months, with an average well north of .300. Impressive as his stats were, questions still abound as to whether he's the next Jayson Werth, or simply a utility player who burst into flames for a two month stretch.

Oliver Thinks ... he was unconscionably hot in August/September, but that there's legitimate pop in his wood, and the average will be usable. If we use the THT Forecast for ABs (499), and extrapolate his Oliver projections out, Raburn comes in with 71 runs, 23 homers, and 80 RBIs—numbers befitting a third outfielder in 12-team leagues.

I Think ... if he can handle a full-time role over the length of the season, he’ll hit those projections and then some. I don’t know that he can, though. As a part-timer in '09, he bopped an impressive 16 balls out of the park, while registering a 17.0 HR/FB ratio and .241 isolated power number. As his playing time increased in 2010, those numbers regressed, though still remained healthy at 12.2 and .194 respectively. Whether those totals simply normalized, or if they’ll continue to fall as pitchers see him on a more consistent basis is where the questions come in.

While he’s currently the Tigers starting left fielder, he’s not without competition. Last season’s surprise rookie, Brennan Boesch, will be breathing down his neck, and Raburn will undoubtedly feel the pressure to produce right out of the gate, something he’s never been able to do—in 152 career at-bats in April and May, he's posted a .209 average, failing to go yard a single time. If Raburn doesn’t receive the same kind of luck he experienced over the final two months of last season, which is probable considering his BABIP sat at .380, a slow start could easily morph into a prolonged slump, and removal from the starting lineup.

If you can use him at second base—Raburn played 18 games there last year—bump him up your cheat sheets considerably, but as an outfield-only commodity, it'd be wise not to extend yourself too much on a 30-year old player with such an untested track record.

Peter Bourjos:

September Line: .206 AVG/11 R/4 HR/8 RBI/6 SB (106 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .254 AVG/73 R/11 HR/55 RBI/23 SB (589 PAs)

The speedy Bourjos made it the bigs on the strength of his elite defensive skills in center field, and once there, flashed the kind of speed/power combo that makes fantasy owners salivate on draft day. The average, though, was low enough to trigger the gag reflex.

Oliver Thinks ... you can pencil in a 10/20 season for the man Torii Hunter referred to as "the fastest white guy I ever saw." And the average, while still not appealing, should be closer to the .293 number he posted over five minor league seasons than the Mendoza level he performed at last year.

I Think ... the upside is unmistakable—in 415 ABs at Triple-A last season, Bourjos hit .314 with 13 homers, 12 triples, and 27 stolen bases—but his inability to draw a walk, combined with a high strikeout rate (he registered just two walks against 25 strikeouts in September), make me leery. His BB/K ratio of 0.36 in the minors doesn't suggest his big-league performance was terribly flukey, and if it continues, he’ll struggle to reach base enough to avoid a minor league recall, elite defense and base-stealing prowess or not.

Interestingly, and you can make of this stat what you want, but only five players saw a larger majority of pitches inside the strike zone than Bourjos last season. As you would expect, the guys ahead of him were of the slap-hitting variety, suggesting opposing pitchers weren't afraid to serve up hittable balls to players with such low power outputs. Bourjos looks the part of those players, but as his .177 ISO indicates, he's not.

My take: without a lengthy scouting report on the books, pitchers saw a speed guy hitting in the nine-hole, and approached him as they would others of that ilk. As a result, Bourjos saw an inordinately high volume of drivable balls. As pitchers become more familiar with the type of hitter he is, they'll predictably adjust their approach, in turn, forcing Bourjos to adjust his. Whether or not he's capable of doing so is up for debate, but I'm not willing to invest more than a buck to find out.

Danny Espinosa:

September Line: .214 AVG/16 R/6 HR/15 RBI/0 SB (112 PAs)
2011 Oliver Line: .244 AVG/73 R/19 HR/69 RBI/15 SB (599 PAs)

Espinosa didn't get called up until rosters expanded in September, but when he arrived, he arrived with a bang, hitting three homers in his first five games, and finishing the month with six bombs. Of his 22 hits, 11 went for extra bases, though 22 hits in 103 at-bats was a tad disconcerting.

Oliver Thinks ... the middle infielder is ready to produce elite counting numbers in his first full season. The average won’t be pretty, but compared to his competitors—the second base position produced just 10 qualified players with a batting average above .270 last year—his power/speed production will still be enough to make him a top 15 player at the position.

I Think ... one look at his minor league numbers—40 HRs, 145 RBI, 56 SBs in 275 games—is enough to ignore the .214 average, which was held down by a .239 BABIP in his brief stint with the Nats last year. His ISO of .233 was bettered by only Troy Tulowitzki and Jed Lowrie among middle infielders with 100 plate appearances. To be fair, it’s a small sample size, and his best number in that category in the minors was .202, but even if he registers an ISO of .176 this season, as Oliver projects, that’s still a reasonably high number for his position.

Some may question the lofty steals total since he only attempted two stolen bases in a month of action, and was thrown out both times, but that was more likely a result of only finding himself on first base a measly 21 times in 28 games, rather than an indictment on his speed. He'll need to cut down on his strikeouts (29.1 K% with a 14.3 SwStr% last year) to keep the average from killing his value, but if he continues to drive the ball, he’ll be afforded a fairly long leash during his rookie season, providing him enough opportunities to make a late-round pick in 12-team mixers well worth the investment.

Posted by Chris Ryan at 7:28am

The Verdict: Roto fantasy leagues do not resemble real baseball.

It is no secret that I personally am not a big fan of Roto leagues for fantasy baseball. My criticism of Roto leagues is well documented dating back to a Roto vs. H2H article I had written in 2009. This may be considered blasphemy to some in the industry, but I just can’t get excited about standard 5x5 Roto leagues. In my opinion, they do not represent any semblance to real baseball with regard to the valuation and talents of professional baseball players.

That being said, I am not complaining about the popularity of Roto leagues because they represented a majority of the customers who signed up for Fantasy Judgment dispute resolution services in 2010.

For some background, Roto leagues typically are based on five offensive categories (batting average, home runs, runs batted in, runs scored, and stolen bases) and five pitching categories (wins, saves, earned run average, WHIP, and strikeouts) — hence they are called 5x5 leagues. There are variations of this as some leagues employ 4x4 or even 6x6 format, either adding or subtracting certain categories. The gist is that Roto league members accumulate season totals and are ranked based on where they stand in each category. The other type of fantasy baseball played is referred to as head-to-head (H2H), where a point value is associated with a litany of statistics (much more extensive than just the few categories in Roto leagues) and teams play games against a direct opponent each week. The winner is the team who has accumulated more points from his players during a particular scoring period. In my estimation, this format is more representative of real baseball.

Because of my bias and preference towards H2H leagues, I am always frustrated every year when I read the fantasy baseball magazines and website rankings and evaluations for players because they are purely based on Roto league performance. I can’t explain why, but I get so irritated hearing about why Michael Bourn and Juan Pierre are so revered simply because they steal a lot of bases.

I understand there are not a lot of players who amass impressive stolen base totals, so winning the steals category requires a certain amount of strategy. But besides that, what value do they bring to a fantasy team? Neither has any power whatsoever, they are not high on-base percentage players so they do not score a lot of runs, they hit near the top of their respective orders so they don’t drive in runs, and they are not typically hovering near .300 for their batting average. In my personal opinion, Roto leagues do not promote a sophisticated or realistic evaluation of a player's true worth.

Maybe I am making unfounded assumptions that people who play fantasy baseball want to somehow simulate the feeling of being a general manager. Maybe I am overemphasizing the importance or desire to have fantasy baseball resemble real baseball. I am in no means attempting to insult anyone or criticize anyone’s personal preferences. I am merely trying to point out that the old standard way of evaluating players in fantasy baseball needs to evolve because H2H is arguably just as popular.

For those like me who play H2H, there is no reason to rely on magazine’s rankings and analysis because it does not translate to H2H formats—at least not very well. Two more examples of this are Hanley Ramirez and Carl Crawford. Both of them are superb baseball players with loads of talent, and they are also very valuable fantasy assets. Ramirez is especially revered because he is a shortstop, and that is one position with major scarcity and lack of depth beyond the few top-tier options. He is universally considered the No. 1 or No. 2 pick in almost every draft that is conducted and analyzed in fantasy magazines and websites.

After Albert Pujols, is Ramirez really the second best player in baseball? I think most would agree that he is not. But because he plays shortstop and is a 30-30 candidate every year, he shoots up the list to No. 2. In a H2H league, he has a ton of value as well. But I don’t think he would universally be penned the No. 2 pick in a H2H draft because there are plenty of other players who can amass significantly more points than him. Crawford is a more direct example of Roto love. While he is a tremendously talented baseball player who has put up consistently impressive statistics every year, is he really worth a top five pick in a draft? Over his nine-year career, he has averaged .296, 14 home runs, 78 RBI, 100 runs scored, and 54 stolen bases. He has never reached 20 home runs or topped 90 RBIs in a single season. He is revered in Roto leagues because of his speed and his propensity for stolen bases.

As he gets older and enters his 30′s, his legs will not have the same strength or endurance so it is likely his stolen base numbers will continually decrease as he ages. This is perfectly normal. Just watch as the years go on as his value in Roto leagues slowly but surely decreases. That is, unless he takes advantage of his new surroundings and powerful lineup in Boston and amasses 25 home runs and 100+ RBI while also sporting a .300-plus batting average and scoring 100-plus runs. That is certainly possible, but the love of his stolen bases will wane. In sum, if Crawford wasn't stealing 50-plus bases per season, he wouldn't even be a third-round pick.

I am aware that I may be in the minority with my opinions. But when I read an article in Lindy’s 2011 fantasy baseball magazine written by Dave Cameron of Fangraphs, I was pleasantly surprised to see that others felt there were things that needed to be done to improve fantasy baseball so as to make it more representative of real baseball. Without so much as explicitly saying it, Cameron was constructively criticizing Roto leagues. He made several recommendations to make fantasy baseball more enjoyable and similar to real baseball.

In all fairness, these suggestions could be employed by both Roto and H2H leagues, but they are more likely geared towards Roto leagues. First, Cameron suggested that we value statistics that win games as opposed to statistics that are simply scarce. This goes directly to my point regarding stolen bases. Cameron expands this suggestion by also mentioning saves and used Chad Qualls and Juan Gutierrez (both on the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2010) as examples.

Qualls and Gutierrez combined for 27 saves and neither was likely drafted before the season. Teams that acquired them in midseason were rewarded with some saves to help bolster that category in Roto leagues. But when you look at their entire body of work, they also combined for an ERA of over 6.00. In a Roto league, that doesn’t matter. All that counts are the saves. In a H2H league, fantasy teams are likely penalized for giving up earned runs, issuing walks, blowing saves, and any other category that may have a point value associated with it. The most poignant point made by Cameron in this argument is that “this leads to some truly bad baseball players being elite fantasy talents, and a huge disconnect between reality and the way fantasy is scored.” Well said Mr. Cameron.

The next suggestion made by Cameron is directly pointed to Roto leagues and their use and value of batting average as a category. As he points out, batting average only deals with plays that happen when a batter swings the bat. The example Cameron used compared Carlos Gonzalez and Joey Votto. Gonzalez hit 12 points higher than the NL MVP but made 25 more outs than Votto in 12 fewer plate appearances.

Cameron suggests using on-base percentage in lieu of batting average as the measure for a player’s true offensive value. As my father preached to my little league team when I was seven years old, “a walk is as good as a hit.” This is absolutely true. Good offensive players typically have good plate discipline and pitch selection, and this usually translates into high walk totals which helps increase on-base percentage.

Cameron then makes a similar argument for pitchers when he recommends utilizing innings pitched as a category. The example he used was the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Felix Hernandez. His lack of victories was well documented, and fortunately this was overlooked when he was given the award despite only winning 13 games.

But as we all know, a pitcher’s true value and talent is not based on the number of wins he accumulates. As a way to reap the benefits of pitchers like King Felix who pitch well but are hampered by inept offenses, Cameron thinks that including innings pitched as a category will help offset “an increase in roster strategies that emphasizes relievers and cheap starting pitchers that would just clear league minimums in innings pitched, allowing bullpen arms to drive the ratio stats of ERA and WHIP down even further by taking a larger percentage of a team’s total innings.” Well said Mr. Cameron.

As a way of demonstrating my objectivity, I do not agree with everything that Cameron suggests. He recommends that defense be considered and valued in fantasy leagues. This I wholeheartedly disagree with. While no one would mistake Carl Crawford with Adam Dunn with regard to their defensive capabilities, their talents in the field have no place in a fantasy league.

I am a strong advocate for fantasy baseball being as close to real baseball as possible, but the fact of the matter is that fantasy baseball is not real baseball. The intangibles for which Derek Jeter is so revered mean nothing in a fantasy league. If he rebounds and hits .320 with 20 HR, 85 RBIs, 110 runs scored and 25 stolen bases, no one will care whether he makes 20 errors or dives into the stands to catch a ball.

I also disagree with Cameron’s recommendation to delineate outfielders at a specific position. He argues that having a team with Adam Dunn, Manny Ramirez and Carlos Lee as your three outfielders is something no major league manager would ever do. While that is true, that makes no difference in fantasy baseball.

Each outfield position does take specialized skill and talent. Center field is clearly the most important outfield position and it cannot be played by just anyone. A center fielder needs to have speed, agility, a strong arm, and leadership to cover the gaps and make calls on a ball. But at the end of the day, every outfielder has the same job description: cover the field, catch the ball, throw to the correct base, back up plays in the infield when necessary. These tasks must be completed by left fielders, right fielders and center fielders. To require fantasy baseball players to draft individual outfield positions doesn’t make much sense and would devalue all outfielders overall.

Where I do agree with Cameron regarding positional delineations is to do away with the “corner infielder” and “middle infielder” labels. While these are usually reserve or bench positions, it is completely unrealistic to have Billy Butler, Derrek Lee or Carlos Pena as a backup third basemen. Having specific positional players in the infield is much different than the outfield, and I do agree with Cameron’s point about this.

In summation, I love baseball—both real and fantasy. I love playing fantasy baseball for many reasons, and I do want my leagues to be as close to real baseball as possible. But it can never truly replicate the real thing, and no one should ever expect it to. But there are many ways to simulate leagues to make them as comparable to real baseball as possible. The verdict is that H2H leagues do that more than Roto leagues.

Posted by Michael Stein at 1:03am

Monday, January 17, 2011

Fluke watch - Ubaldo Jimenez

Going into 2010, Ubaldo Jimenez was known as a potential big-time ace. He had just finished the 2009 season with a 3.47 ERA and had a 3.63 xFIP to make it clear that this improvement was, in fact, real. In 2009, Jimenez had two fastballs that both averaged over 96 MPH, and he touched triple digits in velocity 10 times.

Meanwhile, he had a groundball percentage over 50 percent (52.5 percent according to fangraphs). Thus, Jimenez looked to be the rare pitcher with the ability to be both a power-strikeout pitcher and a groundball pitcher, a combination even more appreciated in Coors Field. Needless to say, his potential seemed quite great.

Then in April and May of 2010, Jimenez appeared to break out, with a sub-1.00 ERA through April and May. Of course, if you're reading The Hardball Times, you were probably warned to be wary of Jimenez's .251 and .202 BABIP in those months, which indicated that a good bit of regression was coming.

And boy did it come, with a 4.41 ERA in June and a 6.04 ERA in July to drive fantasy owners crazy. Still, if you kept Jimenez all year, you were probably happy with the overall 19-8, 2.88 ERA line that he put up.

Still, there are some odd things about Jimenez's year:

First of all, he increased his strikeouts, but this increase mainly came against left-hand batters (Ks have actually decrease against righties).

Second, Jimenez's walk rate remained lower than it was in 2008 for the second straight year. However, this change is also odd, as the BB rate against righties increased, while the BB rate against lefties dropped a good bit.

Finally, Jimenez's ground ball percentage dropped to 48.8 percent, the lowest over the last three seasons. This appears to have been caused by the increasingly-extreme groundball splits of his pitches: against left-handed batters, Jimenez's is a terrible groundball pitcher (39.4 percent GB rate), while against righties he's a clear groundball pitcher (57.8 percent). This split was not as extreme in 2009 or 2008 at all. So what caused this?

These oddities raise the question: what can we expect from Jimenez next year? Let's look at the pitches:

What Jimenez throws

Jimenez historically has thrown six pitches—a four-seam fastball, two-seam fastball, change-up, splitter, slider, and curveball—during his career. However, he appears to have broken out a seventh pitch in 2010: a cutter. That said, the slider was barely used in 2010 (it was thrown 37 times), so its impact on Jimenez's performance is negligible and not worth any further discussion.

Other than the cutter, the movements of all six of Jimenez's other pitches remained the same in 2010. The same was true of the velocity of these pitches. There also isn't a large difference in the frequency of use of any of these pitches. No, whatever caused the odd results of Jimenez in 2010 appears to be in the location of where Jimenez threw his pitches.

Jimenez' fastball and the location changes in 2010

The key pitches, of course, when discussing Jimenez are his two fastballs, which he throws a combined 60 percent of the time. The two-seamer is thrown twice as frequently as the four-seam fastball against both left- and right-handed batters, but both pitches are thrown fairly frequently. The four-seam fastball is slightly faster than the two-seamer (by about 0.5 mph), has about two inches more hop ("rises" two inches more), but has around three inches less tail.

As two-seam fastballs go, Jimenez's pitch does not have a great amount of sink. However, this lack of sink is countered by the pitch's great velocity, which increases the pitch's ability to get ground balls (for more on this phenomenon, see here).

That said, it's this pitch that seems to be the greatest cause in the emergence of Jimenez's odd groundball splits and his improved ability to get strikeouts against left-handed batters in 2010. Take a look at the following table, which shows the results of these two fastballs against left-handed batters each of the last three years:

Pitch Type	Year	Swinging Strike %	Ground Ball %
Four-Seam	2008	8.71%	50.00%
Four-Seam	2009	9.06%	46.15%
Four-Seam	2010	12.71%	41.51%
Two-Seam	2008	4.90%	48.13%
Two-Seam	2009	6.76%	48.43%
Two-Seam	2010	8.20%	33.04%

Now, of course, the question is what caused this dramatic change in the results? The answer is where Jimenez has located his fastballs against left-handed batters. In 2009, Jimenez threw both fastballs at a higher location in the strike zone than he did in 2008, but he kept the horizontal location in the strike zone around the same location.

Higher sinkers will still get ground balls against same-handed batters, but will be less effective against opposite-handed batters: in this case, left-handed batters. Of course, high fastballs are more likely to result in swinging strikes, as well, which explains the increase in strikeouts.

In 2010, Jimenez kept his aim high, but altered his horizontal aim as well: he tried to throw both fastballs against right- and left-hand batters more away from hitters than he did previously. Against right-hand batters, this put the ball more in the middle of the zone (Jimenez had previously aimed inside on these batters). Against lefties, however, this resulted in these pitches being in the outside part of the plate more often than before.

The end result was an increase in swinging strikes (Jimenez's best spot for getting swinging strikes the last two years against LHBs has indeed been away and high). However, as you could guess from the table above, the result was a drop in the groundball rate (the high-and-in pitches did get ground balls more frequently than high-and-away pitches.)

All in all, these appear to be real changes in Jimenez's pitching habits, and we should expect the increasingly extreme strikeout and groundball splits to continue in the future.

But what about the decreased walks?

You may have noticed that the oddity regarding the reduced walks of Jimenez over the last two years is not accounted for yet in this analysis. This is because it's hard to understand why Jimenez is getting a better BB Rate. Jimenez did do a better job in 2010 throwing strikes on three-ball counts. Of course, he threw more pitches in three-ball counts in 2010 than in 2009 (and in a roughly equivalent amount to 2008), negating the effect of this improved accuracy.

Moreover, Jimenez's ability to hit the strike zone didn't seem to change against either hand too much in 2010 as compared to 2009 or 2008. One theoretical explanation you might think of is that batters were swinging more in 2010 and 2009 at pitches out of the strike zone. Indeed, Fangraphs' BIS data would tell you that was the case in 2010.

Unfortunately, this is one of those cases where the BIS data is incorrect....according to PitchF/X data, batters did not swing at pitches out of the strike zone significantly more frequently in 2010 or 2009 as compared to 2008 (For an explanation as to why BIS data is inaccurate in this area, see Colin Wyers' article here.

The end result is that, without a discernible reason why Jimenez's BB rate has dropped, don't bet on it staying as low as it was in 2009 or 2010, and don't be surprised if it returns to being above 4.0 BB/9.

Conclusion:

Ubaldo Jimenez has tantalizing stuff. And at times he looks like an ace. But as aces go, he's a riskier proposition than other No. 1 starters for your fantasy team. This is the case for two reasons:

1. His walk rate is likely to increase in the future, resulting in his numbers not being as impressive as they were in 2009 or 2010.

2. While his changes in where he locates his fastballs have resulted in increased Ks, they also have increased the volatility of his pitch results. Because he no longer will get as many ground balls against LHBs, he's more likely to give up home runs, which will ruin quite a few fantasy starts. Jimenez had a HR/FB of 3.3 percent (according to Fangraphs) against LHBs in 2010. That's due for a good bit of regression, especially considering he plays in Coors Field, humidor notwithstanding.

The end result is that against teams with a large number of left-handed batters, Jimenez is more likely to be a feast-or-famine pitcher than he was before 2010: he could give you a start with a lot of Ks, or he could end up giving up a few gopher balls.

Thus, I probably wouldn't have Jimenez too high on your list of choices to be your No. 1 starter in your 2011 fantasy league.

Posted by Josh Smolow at 4:05am

Is “handcuffing” necessary in fantasy baseball?

As I accepted my first ever Shake ‘N Bake Football Championship trophy this past week, it got me thinking about the similarities between fantasy football and my first love, fantasy baseball. I examined my success on the gridiron and found that there was a direct correlation to my “handcuffing” of my running backs, which got me thinking if “handcuffing” could be useful in baseball.

The term “handcuffing” is well known in the fantasy football community. It is the strategy of taking a backup to a starting player on the chance the starter were to lose his job by way of injury or ineffectiveness. It’s fascinating to watch as natural selection will bring relatively obscure players to the surface. These obscure players can perform similarly to their counterparts and give enough value to salvage seasons in the process.

The inner wheels of my simple mind began to churn, and I posed two questions to myself, “Have you ever ‘handcuffed’ in fantasy baseball?” and “When would you ‘handcuff’ in the future?” My results will follow in the next several sentences.

Have you ever “handcuffed” in fantasy baseball? Before I began writing this piece, I had never heard any baseball analyst suggest the strategy of handcuffing, ever. I don’t know if it’s the difference in the actual games of football and baseball, but you just don’t see too many managers or experts going the “handcuff” route.

The game of baseball is much more of a skill-based game than football. It’s hard to replace Alex Rodriguez’ power with Eduardo Nunez or Zack Grienke’s pitch sequence with Tim Dillard’s. The skill and production would be vastly different.

So I looked over some of my successful fantasy teams that I’ve had over the past few years to see if I ever used the handcuff method and really couldn’t find much. There were a few instances where I stashed rookies like Matt Wieters on the hopes of future playing time, but I, by no means, was starting Greg Zaun while waiting for Wieters to bust out in June.

When would you handcuff in the future? Let me preface this by saying a standard ESPN or Yahoo! League should not look to this strategy. I am only addressing leagues where at least 75 to 80 percent of the player pool is used, which is basically deeper mixed leagues or NL/AL-only leagues.

Maybe it’s my propensity to root for the younger talent as they break into the big leagues, but I can’t think of any better time to handcuff than with a marginal, older player and his backup, star prospect. Here are some examples of handcuff duos I like for 2011.

Russell Martin and Jesus Montero: The last of the big, talented, prospect catcher threesome awaits his chance in Scranton. While Buster Posey wins Rookie of the Year and Carlos Santana cements himself as the Indians catcher for years to come, Montero waits. It’s not his fault.

The Yankees' brass has used Montero as trade bait for the past two years now. There are rumblings coming out of Yankee camp that he still could be moved for an impact starting pitcher, but with Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria out, the Yanks have even less to gain.

Most thought the move of Posada from behind the plate would bring in the reign of Jesus. The signing of Martin then puzzled those same people. Montero hit .352 after the All-Star break in 2010 and maintained a .220+ ISOPower. You probably couldn’t ask for a better catching prospect except for that whole defense thing.

We play fantasy, and defense doesn’t matter in fantasy. So if you are struggling to find a catcher in your draft, taking Martin and his handful of home runs and steals while you wait for Montero would get the Ben Pritchett Stamp of Approval. I personally would recommend getting a catcher earlier, though. While I am a Montero fan, I am equally a Martin detractor.

Mike Aviles and Mike Moustakas: My love for the “Moose” is well documented in my article, “Overspending for Players in 2011,” so I won’t spend too much time detailing the skills this young man has used to obliterate minor league pitching. His major league equivalents are some of the best we’ve seen in years.

Aviles finished 2010 on a high note, going .333 BA/6 HR/20 RBI in Sept./Oct. He was that good in ’08, then struggled with injuries in ’09. That glimpse he gave us in the final months of 2010 may just point to a return to 2008 levels. I wouldn’t bet on that extreme, but he could be a great fill-in at third until the Royals finally bite the bullet and hand the franchise over to Moustakas.

Aviles should retain his SS position eligibility, also. If you are stretching for CI or waited too long for your third baseman, then this could be a great handcuff situation for you. Note your league settings, as you may have to wait on Aviles to gain 3B eligibility. If that is the case, this handcuff isn’t for you.

Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel: Venters went from a lefty specialist to groundball specialist. He led all relievers with a groundball rate of 70 percent. He had the best OPS on his fastball in the game at .590 (Bill James Handbook min. 125 batters faced). He pitched in 79 games and was still able to keep his ERA at 1.95.

As for his competition at the back end of the Braves bullpen, Kimbrel, he only profiles as the Braves closer of the future. He is blessed with a laser rocket for an arm and was able to handle the transition to Atlanta rather well with a 0.44 ERA and 40 Ks in just 21 innings. He may be the most exciting young reliever in the game behind Aroldis Chapman.

Drafting both Venters and Kimbrel guarantees you the Braves' closer and another top talent in the pen. Venters could take the job out of spring, but the closing duties will be Kimbrel’s before season’s end.

Francisco Cordero and Aroldis Chapman: It’s hard to debate Cordero’s 40 saves in 2010, but his age is creeping up (35) and his strikeouts and ERA are in a freefall. As stated by Jeremy Greenhouse in The Hardball Times Annual 2011, Chapman’s fastball grades out as the best in the game. His 105-mph pitch against the Padres was the fastest recorded pitch in major league history. What about the other 24 pitches he threw that night? Well, they were all over 100, also. He is an extraordinary talent and should be owned in a deep league whether he is closing or not.

Matt Thornton and Chris Sale: This may be my favorite handcuff of them all because Sale is quite possibly the best young left hander in baseball and should be given the chance to start in 2011. Sale shouldn’t be handcuffed with any expectations other than that he will contribute and be successful whether as a closer or a front-of-the-rotation starter.

At the age of 34, the hard-throwing Thornton isn’t getting any younger. He combined a 12.0 K/9 ratio with a stunning 4.1 K/BB in 2010 and deserves the closer job in Chicago. Sale can close if Thornton falters, but this handcuff has even more value if Sale starts.

To sum all this up, there are better ways to “handcuff” than in the fantasy baseball game. The need for skill is essential for success in baseball. The need for opportunity is more important in football. So I wouldn’t hedge your championship dreams on a “handcuff.” I like this idea of using a stable veteran while waiting on your stud rookie. Let me know what you think or if you have used a “handcuff” strategy in your baseball leagues.

Ben Pritchett is “handcuffed” to his computer right now and needs you to send emails to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address) to set him free.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 4:02am

Friday, January 14, 2011

Top 100 fantasy starting pitchers for 2011

Other 2011 fantasy rankings by position:
Catcher || First Base || Second Base || Shortstop || Third Base || Corner and Middle Infield || Outfield

To remind everyone: These rankings are based on position eligibility. Players who are eligible at multiple positions will be ranked in comparison with others at each relevant position. You will also note asterisks next to the names of certain players. These indicate health risks. Health concerns have been taken into consideration, as have expected talent and expected playing time to yield expected production.

Position eligibility and evaluation criteria for these rankings are explained here. The "O" in front of ERA, WHIP and K/9 stands for Oliver-projected*.
*Oliver's 2011 projections have been updated since I wrote down all of the prospective pitching statistics for my pitcher rankings. Due to the sheer volume of time it would take to update my positional rankings for pitchers, I am going to keep the Oliver 2011 category listed as is. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up to date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here

Rank   Name                 Team             oERA   oWHIP   oK/9 
1      Roy Halladay         Phillies         3.32   1.13    7.2
2      Tim Lincecum         Giants           3.27   1.21    10.0
3      Felix Hernandez      Mariners         3.35   1.23    7.7
4      Adam Wainwright*     Cardinals        3.27   1.17    8.0
5      Josh Johnson         Marlins          3.40   1.22    7.9
6      Cliff Lee            Phillies         3.34   1.15    6.9
7      C.C. Sabathia        Yankees          3.59   1.24    7.4
8      Jon Lester           Red Sox          3.74   1.25    8.6
9      Dan Haren            Angels           3.68   1.19    8.3
10     Zack Greinke         Brewers          3.49   1.21    8.3
11     Justin Verlander     Tigers           3.67   1.28    8.8
12     Chris Carpenter      Cardinals        3.49   1.20    6.5
13     Francisco Liriano    Twins            4.18   1.37    8.4
14     Cole Hamels          Phillies         3.78   1.23    8.1
15     Max Scherzer         Tigers           3.77   1.27    9.0
16     Clayton Kershaw      Dodgers          3.33   1.26    9.2
17     Mat Latos            Padres           3.37   1.18    8.4
18     Jered Weaver         Angels           3.77   1.25    8.3
19     Tommy Hanson         Braves           3.41   1.19    8.3
20     Ubaldo Jimenez       Rockies          3.35   1.25    8.5
21     Yovani Gallardo      Brewers          3.93   1.36    9.1
22     Roy Oswalt           Phillies         3.56   1.20    7.2
23     Ricky Nolasco        Marlins          4.09   1.26    7.9
24     Jeremy Hellickson    Rays             3.72   1.22    8.5
25     Shaun Marcum         Brewers          3.82   1.24    7.0
26     Chad Billingsley     Dodgers          3.94   1.35    7.9
27     David Price          Rays             3.86   1.32    7.6
28     Hiroki Kuroda        Dodgers          3.64   1.24    6.2
29     Colby Lewis          Rangers          3.33   1.16    8.4
30     Brett Anderson       Athletics        3.87   1.27    7.1
31     Madison Bumgarner    Giants           3.51   1.21    6.9          
32     Ted Lilly            Dodgers          3.67   1.18    7.4          
33     Jhoulys Chacin       Rockies          3.60   1.27    8.0          
34     Wandy Rodriguez      Astros           4.00   1.33    7.6          
35     Josh Beckett         Red Sox          4.26   1.31    7.9          
36     Phil Hughes          Yankees          3.87   1.29    7.7          
37     Daniel Hudson        Diamondbacks     3.94   1.26    8.4          
38     Matt Cain            Giants           3.78   1.27    7.4          
39     Ian Kennedy          Diamondbacks     3.92   1.29    7.7          
40     Ryan Dempster        Cubs             4.02   1.34    7.7          
41     Gavin Floyd          White Sox        4.07   1.33    6.8
42     Jaime Garcia         Cardinals        3.86   1.34    7.3
43     Brandon Webb*        Rangers          3.86   1.31    6.8
44     Ricky Romero         Blue Jays        4.59   1.49    6.7
45     Tim Hudson           Braves           3.92   1.32    5.4
46     Jordan Zimmerman     Nationals        4.20   1.32    7.7
47     Gio Gonzalez         Athletics        4.40   1.46    8.4
48     Travis Wood          Reds             3.69   1.27    7.3
49     John Danks           White Sox        3.79   1.29    6.8
50     Matt Garza           Cubs             4.15   1.33    6.9
51     Clay Buchholz        Red Sox          3.78   1.32    6.8
52     Scott Baker          Twins            4.37   1.32    7.2
53     Brian Matusz         Orioles          3.89   1.29    7.9
54     Marc Rzepczynski     Blue Jays        4.40   1.44    7.8
55     Trevor Cahill        Athletics        4.00   1.31    5.9
56     C.J. Wilson          Rangers          3.91   1.36    7.5
57     James Shields        Rays             4.62   1.37    7.1
58     Kyle Drabek          Blue Jays        4.10   1.37    6.8
59     Jason Hammel         Rockies          4.21   1.34    6.8
60     Wade Davis           Rays             4.36   1.41    6.7
61     Dallas Braden        Athletics        4.18   1.34    5.7
62     Jonathan Sanchez     Giants           4.19   1.39    9.3
63     Jorge de la Rosa     Rockies          4.07   1.35    8.8
64     Brandon Morrow       Blue Jays        4.26   1.41    8.7
65     Javier Vazquez*      Marlins          4.16   1.31    7.7
66     Carlos Zambrano*     Cubs             4.06   1.41    7.2
67     Jake Peavy*          White Sox        3.86   1.29    8.0
68     Derek Holland        Rangers          4.12   1.33    7.3
69     Brett Myers*         Astros           4.24   1.35    7.0
70     Johan Santana*       Mets             3.82   1.27    7.0
71     Rich Harden*         Athletics        4.36   1.40    9.2
72     Kevin Slowey*        Twins            4.47   1.30    6.8
73     Johnny Cueto         Reds             4.33   1.35    6.9
74     Justin Masterson     Indians          4.43   1.44    7.0
75     Edinson Volquez      Reds             4.15   1.40    8.5
76     Ervin Santana        Angels           4.50   1.37    7.1
77     Bud Norris           Astros           4.57   1.47    8.3
78     Randy Wells          Cubs             4.12   1.36    6.2
79     Tom Gorzelanny       Cubs             4.34   1.45    7.5
80     Jair Jurrjens        Braves           4.12   1.37    6.5
81     Aaron Harang         Padres           4.81   1.44    6.9
82     Bronson Arroyo       Reds             3.97   1.28    5.4
83     Edwin Jackson        White Sox        4.45   1.42    6.9
84     Chris Young*         FA               4.82   1.50    6.7
85     Homer Bailey         Reds             4.43   1.45    7.4
86     Joel Pineiro         Angels           4.10   1.29    4.9
87     Daisuke Matsuzaka    Red Sox          4.46   1.44    7.5
88     Rick Porcello        Tigers           4.19   1.34    5.1
89     Anibal Sanchez       Marlins          4.10   1.40    6.8
90     Derek Lowe           Braves           4.25   1.39    5.6
91     Carl Pavano          Twins            4.52   1.34    5.2
92     Mike Leake           Reds             3.52   1.21    7.5
93     Mike Pelfrey         Mets             4.62   1.46    5.1
94     R.A. Dickey          Mets             4.26   1.38    5.1
95     John Lackey          Red Sox          4.37   1.36    6.5
96     Hisanori Takahashi   Angels           4.12   1.34    7.3
97     Clayton Richard      Padres           4.37   1.43    6.3
98     Jeff Niemann         Rays             4.30   1.37    6.5
99     Joe Blanton          Phillies         4.72   1.42    6.3
100    Chris Tillman        Orioles          4.28   1.39    7.1

*Assuming health, which means assuming the amount of health I expect from them (which in the case of Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, Javier Vazquez, Johan Santana, and Carlos Zambrano, is a guessing game at best), and being tendered a contract.

This list is massive to say the least. I recommend digesting it in parts, and thus, beyond the intro, I have broken my analysis down by tiers of 10. A hundred starting pitchers seems like a lot of names to rank, and to be frank the bottom 30-40 ranked pitchers are mostly dart throws. Nonetheless, I tried my best to accurately index my perceived values and so many names are included here to help distill the "top talents" for those participating in AL/NL-only leagues that require digging into a deeper pool.

Absent from this list are several names which could provide useful fantasy value in 2011—in particular Stephen Strasburg, Justin Duchscherer, Mike Minor (uncertain role and P.T., though clearly talented), and Kris Medlen. The Duke's health is a perpetual question mark, and hence his value is impossible to gauge, but he is solid when healthy. The other two will be returning from Tommy John surgery mid-to-late season and could provide 30-40 valuable innings. That might not seem like much from a starting pitcher, but employing either's services would be the equivalent of rostering an elite reliever for most of the season. Chris Sale might also prove valuable as a Sean Marshall-like swingman for the South Siders. I have no clue how the White Sox plan to use Sale, however, or whether he'll be on the major league roster to open the season. Because of this, he is unranked, but should be kept on your radar as draft day approaches.

Likewise, unranked pitchers Erik Bedard (4.45 oERA, 1.42 oWHIP, 7.70 oK/9), Chien-Ming Wang (4.52 oERA, 1.45 oWHIP, 5.20 oK/9), Andy Pettitte (4.29 ERA, 1.39 oWHIP, 6.40 oK/9) and Andrew Cashner (4.15 oERA, 1.41 oWHIP, 7.60 oK/9) could prove valuable depending on how their respective teams use them, whether they remain healthy, and whether they play big league ball in 2011. These are names to keep an eye on. I have intentionally omitted Cardinal Jake Westbrook (4.42 oERA, 1.39 oWHIP, 5.60 oK/9) because he offers little-to-no upside in fantasy or real life—he's a fourth or fifth starter and innings eater, no more —and because he made me look like an idiot for predicting he would sign with the Rockies.

Aroldis Chapman is also unranked because the Reds plan to keep him in the bullpen next season. Look for him on the relief pitcher rankings.

Of the pitchers ranked above, some of my favorite names likely to turn a 2011 fantasy profit—that is to say, they outproduce their cost/average draft position—include Max Scherzer, Mat Latos, Tommy Hanson, Ricky Nolasco, Colby Lewis, Jeremy Hellickson, Jhoulys Chacin, Josh Beckett, Shaun Marcum, Daniel Hudson, Gavin Floyd, Ian Kennedy, Gio Gonzelz, Traviz Wood, Brian Matusz, and Marc Rzepcynski. I even expect stud pitchers Tim Lincecum and Dan Haren to be relatively underrated heading into the draft.

Below I have broken down pitchers by tiers, focusing on pitcher picks likely to turn a fantasy profit or, in the case of early-round, top-tiered picks, guys likely to give you the best dollar value for your investment.

Tier 1: Starters ranked No. 1-10

While the top 10 names here are all universally accepted "safe pick" fantasy studs, not all will provide you with a good value for the upcoming fantasy season. Between luck and random events, even the best and most talented pitchers rarely end up being the most valuable. and thus you want to hedge risk and downside against upside and cost. Roy Halladay is going in round one, like it or not. Felix Hernandez, Adam Wainwright and likely Josh Johnson will be off the board before pick 30. While these guys are bona fide studs, they are going to cost upwards of $35 or your first/second round pick. Even though the talent gap between these names and lower names in this tier like Jon Lester or Zack Greinke, who I recently profiled here, might be noticeable, the cost gap is significantly lower, increasing the potential return rate.

To win a fantasy league, you need to produce not the best stats, but the most balanced and above-average team. Accordingly, you do not need to sink high funds or your first overall pick, a potential five-category hitter, into a four-category pitcher like Halladay. At least, you shouldn't do so unless you plan to gamble the rest of your starting staff with $1 fliers. Hence, "settling" is the best way to acquire a pitcher from this tier. Aim for Lester, Greinke or Haren in the fifth round, rather than Felix in the early second.

Among names on this list, I particularly like Greinke and Lincecum to provide the highest value per dollars invested. Lincecum is coming off his worst major league season, has seen his velocity decline over the past several seasons, and had a horrible regression in control last year. He also burned a lot of fantasy owners with a god-awful August line (7.82 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 27-to-13 K/BB ratio over 25.1 IP) that he more than made up for in September (1.94 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 52-to-8 K/BB over 41.2 IP). It was Lincecum's worst season since his rookie year: He pitched "only" 212.1 innings of 3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 9.79 K/9, 3.22 BB/9 baseball.

Still, beneath that nonetheless solid surface, Lincecum posted elite peripherals: a 3.21 xFIP (No. 5 among 92 qualified pitchers, on par with Wainwright and Johnson), a 3.15 FIP (No. 15) and a 3.46 tERA (No. 21). If that's a down year, then sign me up. Lincecum will not come cheaply—he is inevitably off the board by the first few picks of round three—but this is probably the cheapest Lincecum will ever go for in a fantasy baseball draft while he is in his prime. It's a better deal than paying a higher cost for Felix or Halladay when he's at least as good as them with plenty of strikeout upside to spare.

Likewise, Greinke and Haren should come at tremendous values. Each are being drafted in the 50th overall range in mock drafts I have participated in, which is not "profitable," but cheap enough to break-even, which is what you look for in your early round draft picks who anchor the team. Surprisingly, Greinke and Haren are being drafted after other solid, but less talented pitchers like Ubaldo Jimenez, Chris Carpenter, David Price and Yovani Gallardo. That seems criminal in my mind.

Even more criminal is Mock Draft Central's (MDC) current average draft position rankings. Wainwright is indexed at No. 55, behind all the above names. Even with the elbow concerns, that's too low, and if that is the case on draft day for whatever reason, you pounce a full round earlier (fourth) and laugh at your opponents.

Tier 2: Starters ranked No. 11-20

Names No. 11 through 20 on this list have high ceilings but are less proven and offer more risk than their No. 1 through 10 counterparts. Each of these names could easily be top 10 by season end, but they could also be lower. From Carpenter's lack of strikeouts and health problems and Francisco Liriano's up-and-down past and injury history to Clayton Kershaw's walk rate/flyball rate to Mat Latos' limited sample, each of these has some perceivable flaw that is easily outweighed by upside. (Carpenter's been a top flight ERA/WHIP/Wins starter when healthy. Liriano, if healthy and back to form, might be one of baseball's five best starting pitchers, Kershaw's strikeouts are elite, and Latos does everything right and plays in the perfect park (Petco) in front of a projected average-or-better defensive posture.)

I doubt that any "brand names" in this tier, including Carpenter, Justin Verlander and Jiminez, will be on the board by pick number 60. Likewise, last year's most underrated pitching asset, Cole Hamels, is likely to go pretty high in 2011. Weaver might be a break-even pick, as his "brand name" and perpetual peripheral over-performance downside is likely to be outweighed by legitimate improvements in his pitching approach, detailed here.

Of the remaining names on this list, I particularly like Liriano, Scherzer, Latos and Hanson, in that order, as the most valuable picks of the tier. But hey, call me a sucker for strikeout upside.

Before his Tommy John surgery in 2007, Liriano was just ridiculous: 121 innings of 2.16 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 2.35 xFIP, 201-to-32 K/BB. On his road to recovery, 2008 was a sign of hope, but 2009 (5.80 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, 1.88 K/BB, 4.87 FIP, 4.55 xFIP, 4.86 tERA) made many abandon hope. His ADP entering the season was ridiculously low for a potential bounce-back candidate, with Yahoo ranking him past No. 900, and he paid off for those who gambled on him, tossing 191.2 innings of 3.62 ERA, 14 win, 201-to-58 K/BB baseball with a solid 1.26 WHIP. Those numbers are strong, but a .340 BABIP on the season indicates room for improvement, while a look below the surface shows Liriano returning to his pre-Tommy John surgery form last year.

In 2010, Liriano posted a 2.66 FIP (No. 3 among 92 qualified starters last season), a 3.06 xFIP (No. 2, behind Halladay's 2.92 mark), and a 2.93 tERA (tied with King Felix and Wainwright as one of only seven qualified pitchers who posted a tERA below 3.00). Perhaps I want to outbid myself in my fantasy leagues, as most of my league mates read my articles, but Liriano is going to be my ace target for 2011.

If not Liriano, why not Scherzer? Despite a rough start to the season, he was almost uncountably filthy after a brief minor league stint in May. The former first-round pick posted an insane 2.47 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and a 96-to-35 K/BB ratio in the second half (102 innings). Oliver likes Scherzer's K/9 to sit right at 9.0 next season, which is entirely feasible given his 23 percent strikeout rate last season. Scherzer is another strong fantasy ace target and his ADP is somehow 205 right now on Mock Draft Central. Crazy, right?

Hanson and Latos are also good gambles with substantial upside and relatively low downside. We all know what Hanson's minor league numbers look like and he showed a good ability to whiff hitters in 2009 (8.18 K/9) that somewhat eluded him in 2010 (7.68 K/9). Still, Hanson showed improved control last season (2.49 BB/9, from a 3.24 mark in 2009) and Oliver expects a rebound in the whiffs (expected 8.3 K/9 mark) next season. Hanson should provide a solid season akin to what he did in 2010, albeit with more strikeouts, and given his improved control, that is worth gambling on.

Latos also offers substantial upside. His fastball averages about 94 mph and he commands it well (2.44 BB/9 last season). He also induces a lot of swings-and-misses (9.21 K/9 last season, 11 percent swinging strike rate) while inducing a decent number of ground balls (44.7 percent mark in 2010). Petco is the place to pitch, and for this talented pitcher, it makes his upside that much better.

Tier 3: Starters ranked No. 21-30

Of this tier of pitchers, Ricky Nolasco is my clear "underrated guy." I've been called a fool repeatedly over the past two seasons for continuously putting heavy stock into Nolasco's numbers, but he is a pitching talent of the highest order, primed for a breakout.

Nolasco has underperformed based on his talent over the past two seasons. In 2009, Nolasco posted a 5.06 ERA, but a 3.35 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, and a 3.83 tERA. His strikeout rate (24.8 percent) was superior and although he was seemingly prone to the long ball despite a neutral GB/FB ratio, he limited hitters from becoming baserunners to the extent within his control (2.14 BB/9). What killed Nolasco in 2009 was poor luck, plain and simple. His left on base rate was 61 percent (the major league average was around 72 percent) and his BABIP-against was an inflated .336.

Last season was no kinder to Nolasco. His BABIP-against remained high at .328, and while his LOB percentage normalized, his homer per fly ball rate spiked at 12.4 percent. Nolasco continued to limit free passes in 2010, walking only 1.88 guys per nine ) and throwing a first pitch strike to essentially two out of every three batters. His swinging strike rate increased from 10.3 percent in 2009 to 10.5 in 2010, but his strikeout rate (22.1 percent) and K/9 (8.39) dipped slightly. I expect a rebound in strikeouts, still strong in 2010, in 2011.

Despite these strong peripherals in 2010, Nolasco's surface stats unimpressed and his season was cut short by injury. Despite a 3.55 xFIP, 3.86 FIP, and 4.06 tERA (inflated by the HR/FB percentage), Nolasco's ERA was well below league average at 4.51. Nolasco has been progressing well enough back from his injury that the penny-pinching Marlins offered him a three-year contract ($26.5 million). That is a positive sign that he will be ready to go full throttle by spring training.

Many have given up on Nolasco by now, burned by two under-performing seasons. His ERAs have been ugly, but his BABIP-inflated WHIPs have still been strong, at 1.25 in 2009 and 1.28 in 2010. While Nolasco might be a Javier Vazquez in his prime, perpetually underperforming, we all know how amazing Vazquez's numbers looked when his surface stats did match his peripherals in 2007 and 2009. Nolasco deserves a chance, is likely to end the season as a top 20 pitcher, and should be bid upon accordingly.

The remainder of the names in this tier seem almost as risky as Nolasco, but offer more downside. Gallardo has elite strikeouts and solid groundball tendencies, but his control is poor and his WHIP is far from elite. As I tweeted on THT Fantasy a couple of weeks ago, the average ERA of a starter with a BB/9 greater than 4.00 over the past three seasons is 4.51. Of the 32 starters (minimum 150 innings) with BB/9s greater than 4.00 over this time frame, only Edinson Volquez, Rich Harden, Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Carlos Zambrano and Gallardo have posted ERAs below 4.00.

Most of these pitchers' ERAs are in the upper 3's and the downside is more than apparent. This is not to say that pitchers like Gallardo are not valuable, but they offer appreciable risk to go with their upside. Gallardo is being drafted within the first five rounds according to MDC. That is way too high for the amount of risk he offers, irrespective of upside. While you can't win a draft in the first few rounds, you certainly can lose it by stomaching too much risk.

Other names in this tier include Roy Oswalt (solid ratios, questionable strikeouts, and the concern that Citizens Bank Ballpark is the most home run inflating in baseball), Shaun Marcum (I love him, but he does not throw even 90 mph, is a flyball pitcher, and is only one year removed from serious injury), Chad Billingsley (his K/BB ratio keeps him from being unquestionably elite), David Price (Billingsley, only with fewer ground balls and pitching in the AL East), Hiroki Kuroda (strong ratios and solid strikeouts, but a perpetual injury risk playing in front of a poor defense), Colby Lewis (he carried my fantasy staff in 2010, but I have questions about his groundball rate and home ballpark effects), Brett Anderson (a young Roy Oswalt-type with strikeout upside pitching in spacious Oakland, but plagued by injuries over his first two major league seasons), and Jeremy Hellickson (a top 20-capable pitching talent who is likely going to see his innings limited (170 max?), even in light of the Matt Garza trade to Chicago, to help build arm strength and mitigate health risks, especially given the Rays' pitching depth. Re-enter Andy Sonnanstine?).

Tier 4: Starters ranked No. 31-40

Matt Cain ranked 38? Yeah, that's right. I hate Matt Cain. I wish I could justify slotting him even lower, but I can't. Cain has poor control, gives up too many fly balls, and has seen his strikeout talents and induced-whiffs decline each of the past several seasons. His mid-4's xFIPs seem like a ticking time bomb, waiting to screw someone over. Do not even try to cite Cain's 2.46 BB/9 last season. Walk rates can be lucky and Cain's F-Strike% (both for 2010 and his career), one of the largest components of future walk rates, does not support the "improved control" theory.

This tier is riddled with guys who are getting drafted ridiculously late in mocks according to MDC's ADP data. Each has some higher risk than the previous tier, but offers at least one elite skill and much more upside than downside. For example, Jhoulys Chacin has control problems and pitches at Coors Field, but he induces an incredible number of ground balls and struck out 23.7 percent of batters he faced last season. He is one of my favorite 2011 pitchers.

Madison Bumgarner is also in this list. He's been very up-and-down in both the majors and minors, but finished 2010 strong. His minor league numbers indicate strikeout upside, but let's see where the velocity registers in 2011 before we crown him with top-25 potential.

Josh Beckett offers injury risk, "can't pitch at home" (according to most analysis), and gives up a ton of fly balls. Still, Beckett has good control, strikes out a lot of batters, even in the AL East, and still throws 94-plus mph consistently. You know you want him, despite the tendency to underperform his peripherals.

I detailed Ted Lilly last month, so to avoid redundant rhetoric, just note his final expected line: 196 innings of 3.94 ERA, 174 strikeouts, 1.15 WHIP baseball.

Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy are two other names I really like for 2011. As dueling No. 2 starter types for the Diamondbacks, they are not Scherzer and Haren good, but solid arms nonetheless. Both probably give up way too many fly balls for Chase Field, particularly Kennedy, but strong strikeout rates and respectable control, particularly on the part of Kennedy, will keep their numbers strong.

Tier 5: Starters ranked No. 41-50

Once you reach pitcher No. 40 (Ryan Dempster), the upside of the available pitchers starts being limited to mostly three of the four starter categories. WHIP becomes particularly scarce here, though some of the injury-prone players in this tier (particularly Brandon Webb) could offer WHIP upside if you can stomach the injury risks. Likewise, Tim Hudson offers WHIP upside, but his lack of strikeouts is a real turn-off. I do not particularly believe in his WHIP either, but I have perpetually been wrong about it.

Most of the names in this tier are groundball pitchers with strikeout upside (Hudson excepted), capable of logging a high 3's ERA. Floyd offers a high seven or low eight K/9 and some win opportunity with the reinvigorated White Sox lineup, while Jaime Garcia is a former top prospect who is finally staying healthy and is capable of above average strikeout totals. Ricky Romero and Gio Gonzalez had breakout years in 2010, but their control rates remain a mystery for the future. If they can continue to limit the walks, both pitchers should outperform their ranking on this list in 2011. Likewise, Travis Wood flashed a lot of potential in 2010, but his innings were of a small sample size and more major league data is needed before I can comfortably rank him higher.

Jordan Zimmerman is the wild card of this tier. On one hand, 2011 will be one more year removed from Tommy John surgery and he came back from surgery well in 2010, striking out 20 percent of the batters he faced, while walking only 10 (2.70 K/BB ratio). His velocity is also around where it was in 2009. Zimmerman could easily strike out 140-plus batters if given 150 or more innings next season, while posing a respectable WHIP and mid-to-high 3 ERA. Keep him on your radar on draft day, as his ADP is beyond 200 at this point.

Tier 6: Starters ranked No. 51-60

Tier 6 is where risk starts to settle in with upside. Pitchers like Clay Buchholz and Trevor Cahill have minor league numbers that show clear strikeout upside and offer strong groundball rates at the major league level, but the potential has not materialized beyond BABIP-induced luck. Both Cahill and Buchholz posted sub-3 ERAs in 2010 and will likely be overvalued in 2011. If neither steps forward in the strikeout department, owners will be disappointed. These two pitchers represent negative fantasy assets in my mind, their value (due to groundball rates) being much higher in real life than fantasy.

Wade Davis is a lot like Cahill in terms of strikeout upside with BABIP-induced luck last season, but he offers a lower groundball rate and plays in the AL East rather than spacious Oakland.

I like Marc Rzepczynski, aka The Repo Man, a lot in terms of what he can do (high strikeouts, decent WHIP, sub-4 ERA), but the Blue Jays have shown little faith in his abilities. Whether he has fantasy value next season will hinge largely upon whether he breaks camp as the Blue Jays' No. 4 starter behind Brandon Morrow, Kyle Drabek and Ricky Romero. He is the second most talented Jays pitcher in my view.

C.J. Wilson is another groundball machine with poor control, but I question his strikeout abilities. His transition from reliever to starter came with a huge whiff rate tumble (from 10.2 percent in 2009 to 6.7 percent in 2010). His K/9 remained above average despite being below average in whiff-inducement last season. Additionally, only Jonathan Sanchez (96) walked more batters than Wilson's 93 free passes. Considering the arm stress of going from 73.2 innings in 2009 to 204 innings in 2010 at age 30, a lot of question marks surround Wilson's 2011 potential.

My favorite two names in this tier are Matusz and James Shields. I repeatedly mentioned last year that Matusz was giving up way too many flyballs for an AL East pitcher whose home ballpark inflates the homers-per-fly ball rate by 19 percent and for not striking out enough hitters, despite strong control. Matusz, however, finished the season strong and improved his whiffs toward season end. As one of the minors' top prospects prior to 2010, Matusz could take that leap forward next season, despite underwhelming first-half numbers. I always regret not taking Tim Lincecum in 2008 because of his 2007 performance (I ignored his minor league track), and while Matusz is no Lincecum, he could finish top 30-40 among starting pitchers next season and cost you a mere flier in shallower leagues.

Like Ricky Nolasco, Shields could provide owners with a lot of value after underperforming his statistics in 2010. A WHIP machine in 2007 and 2008, Shields took a slight step back in 2009 with slightly regressed (but still elite) control (2.13 BB/9) and some poor BABIP-against luck (.317 mark). Last season saw Shields greatly improve his whiff talent, with a career-best 8.28 K/9. Shields' xWHIP for last season is barely under 1.20, which shows that he has a lot of room for luck-correction in 2011. Still, Shield has seen his whiff rate fall each of the past two seasons and he posted a career best K/9 despite a career low swinging strike rate. He is not without risk.

Garza also ranks in this tier with his move to the NL (previously ranked in the low 60s on the Rays), but that does not mean that I like him. This is just a recognizance that he continuously outperforms his peripherals. He, like new teammate Zambrano, has not posted an ERA of 4.00 over the past three seasons. However, Garza is not a special pitcher, by any metric. Garza does not strike batters out (K/9 of 6.6 or lower in two of the past three seasons). He has a 4.17 career tERA, 4.45 career xFIP, 4.26 career FIP, and his career ERA is essentially 4.00 on the dot (3.97). He has average control at best (career 3.17 BB/9) that has improved of late, I suppose, being below league average in two of the past three seasons (but 3.50 in 2009). Garza throws hard (career 93.3 mph fastball), but he has also become an increasingly flyball-oriented pitcher.

If Garza continues to outperform his peripherals, he might make a decent fourth or fifth starting pitcher for someone's fantasy roster, but he's not a top target. Thanks to his high infield-fly induction rate, Garza's defense independent expected WHIP for the Cubs (using 2008-2010 data) is somewhere between 1.30 and 1.36. Garza is a lock to be drafted well above what he is going to be worth. His brand-name cost, as it did for the Cubs in real life, will easily outweigh his production.

Tier 7: Starters ranked No. 61-70

If you draft a pitcher from tier 7, you'd better have a WHIP anchor. These are pitchers without control, but with strikeout upside. Jonathan Sanchez, Brandon Morrow, and Jorge de La Rosa all have 200-strikeout potential, but will likely post WHIPs north of 1.35. Zambrano has never posted an ERA of 4.00 or higher, but his xFIP has been consistently in the mid-4's range each of the last four seasons. While Zambrano has rekindled his strikeouts over the past two seasons, his improved control of recent memory has gone out the window. That would be all fine if Zambrano were inducing groundballs over half of the time like he was in 2003 and 2004, but he is not.

There are also a handful of injury-prone names in this list. Outside Zambrano, who has not logged 190 innings since 2007, Brett Myers, Harden, Johan Santana and Javier Vazquez all present appreciable innings risks. Santana is set to start the season on the disabled list, has not been an elite peripheral pitcher (or struck out a good number of batters) since 2007, and has had season-ending surgery each of the past two years. Likewise, Rich Harden (moved down two spots, and hence a tier, in my rankings update) is Rich Harden, has always had control issues, and while the flyball-prone pitcher is back in spacious Oakland where he started his career, he had issues striking guys out last year when healthy. Oliver expects a K/9 rebound, but who knows how many innings Harden can last next season.

Vazquez is a particular pitcher of concern. He's getting old and while he's been a healthy workhorse before 2010, pitching 2,163 innings over the past 10 years may have taken its toll on Vazquez's arm. Dave Cameron of Fangraphs gave a detailed explanation of why Vazquez's past form is probably not returning.

There's also Brett Myers, whose velocity has eroded in recent years. He could be better than his rank, but again, this is Brett Myers we're talking about. I do not trust him as a source of innings, strikeouts, WHIP or ERA, but hey, I said the same thing last year. Take that cop-out analysis for what it's worth.

Tier 8: Starters ranked No. 71-80

Tier 8 is when pitchers largely thin out into two-category "hole fillers" and spot starters, rather than reliable staff mainstays. There is a lot of risk in this tier, and these players' peripherals should be closely monitored if you roster them.

Some may question my low rankings of Reds Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. Cueto is ranked this low because his ever-declining and below-average F-Strike percentage does not inspire confidence in a sustained walk rate of quality (2.71 BB/9 in 2010) going forward. Additionally, while Cueto's above-average swing-and-miss rate (career 9 percent) inspires hope for improved strikeouts in the future, his K/9 is nonetheless lackluster (below 7.0 in each of the past two seasons), while his neutral flyball tendencies are hardly inspiring at the Great American Ballpark (1.19 HR/FB index).

Volquez, on the other hand, seems to offer more downside risk than upside hope. While his post-Tommy John surgery velocity is strong (93.6 mph fastball in 2010 is on par with his career rate), he lacks control (career 4.68 BB/9) and was not particularly sharp last season (5.03 BB/9). While Volquez is an elite source of strikeouts (career 8.69 K/9) and a good source of ground balls (career 46 percent rate), his lack of command over his electric 3.5 pitch mix (he rarely throws that slider these days) could give owners a heart attack. Volquez is not recommended for head-to-head leagues, where consistency is the key to winning, but even Rotisserie owners might want to spot start him for strikeouts and wins rather than toss him out regularly every five days.

Other questionable names on this list are Drabek and Ervin Santana. The former is one of baseball's premier pitching prospects, but his major league equivalent numbers in the upper minors do not inspire a higher ranking yet and he will have to take a few steps forward in his game before proving he belongs in the upper tier of starting pitcher rankings. Santana, on the other hand, shows signs of being less than what he used to be. While he had a nice fantasy season last year, returning from performance limiting injuries in 2009 (17 wins, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 2010), his peripherals looked more like his pre-2008 numbers and in light of his career averages, 2008 may have been the fluke, not the step forward. Santana is a wild card in my view, worth a flier, but my expectations for him are tempered. Oliver seems to concur.

Of the other names in this tier, Bud Norris is likely a good spot start or stream option for periodic strikeouts, while Justin Masterson shows top-of-the-rotation potential mixed in with an absolute inability to deal with lefty batters. Kevin Slowey was once a high-potential guy, but nowadays is just a WHIP stabilizer due to an overwhelming diet of fly balls and ever-eroding groundball rate that cannot be offset by either his elite career walk rate of 1.50 BB/9 or strong control (4.57 career K/BB). Oh, and I do not believe in Jair Jurrjens one bit. His peripherals indicate a likely line that is hardly fantasy-useful.

Tier 9: Starters ranked No. 81-90

The names on this list not only contribute in only one or two fantasy categories, but they start hurting you in others. Joel Pineiro might contribute some ERA/WHIP upside, but will kill your strikeout rate, which can be crippling in innings-capped leagues. Daisuke Matsuzaka Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson are likely good for a few strikeouts and wins, but they will destroy your ERA/WHIP in the process. Chris Young is outside Petco, where the super majority of his fantasy-useful numbers came from. Unless Young signs with the Mets, you might want to avoid him except when he plays in those spacious ballparks. Derek Lowe and Carl Pavano might provide average ERAs and some wins, but they will, like Pineiro, kill your strikeout rate.

Two names on this list stand out as potential bounce-back candidates and are the ideal targets if you must reach for this tier: former Red Aaron Harang and current Red Homer Bailey. Harang is now pitching in spacious Petco, which is ideal for his flyball-heavy style. No longer capable of being abused by Dusty Baker, Harang could bounce back to his high-seven strikeout form and end up a top 50 or better starter. His arm might also be useless, given the abuse Baker infamously dealt to it in 2008. Harang is not ranked higher, despite his upside, because 2009 and 2010 showed us the downside that modern Harang is capable of. Still, his 2006-2007 potential gives us a glimmer of hope.

Baily is another interesting name, as a former top prospect. Bailey has seen both his strikeout talent and walk rate erode as he rose through the upper minors and while his strikeout (8.26 K/9) and walk numbers (3.30 BB/9) were strong in 2010, (3.91 xFIP), Oliver does not believe the 24-year old will sustain them in 2011. Given Bailey's pre-2010 struggles with higher level batters between the majors and Triple-A and the limited sample (109 innings) that 2010 gave us, I am proceeding cautiously with him. Bailey could end the season much higher than his ranking, but I would not place too much money in his risky stock.

Tier 10: Starters ranked No. 91-100

Here, we find the dregs—guys who might be useful if the fates smile kindly upon them. I do not like any of the names in this tier, but some have a relatively recent record of success that could re-emerge next season. I find the likelihood remote.

John Lackey was once a very useful starter, but his peripherals have been eroding for a few seasons now and 2010 saw him collapse. At age 33, there is little upside left in Lackey's stock. Likewise, Joe Blanton has always been a Carl Pavano-type pitcher who had a great 2008, but has not shown himself capable of repetition. His below-average strikeout rate is hardly offset by a solid walk rate, while neutral flyball tendencies tend not to play well in baseball's most home-run exaggerating ballpark. I suppose Felipe Paulino's strikeout potential might be useful for a few turns, but do you really want to take that gamble?

Oliver seems to like Mike Leake, but he skipped the minors and did not flash much whiff tendency in the majors last season (5.92 K/9). His groundball rate (50.2 percent) and walk rate (3.19 BB/9) were strong and average, which is nice for a guy who is barely 23, but he is going to have to show that he is capable of something more than the the 4.23 ERA, 4.31 xFIP, and 1.50 WHIP he posted in 138.1 major league innings last season before I rank him higher. xWHIP 2.0 believes that Leake's performance was worth a 1.29 WHIP last season, while Quick xWHIP thinks it more akin to 1.40. Leake posted a .319 BABIP-against last season, and since he skipped the minors, there is much uncertainty surrounding his "true talent" line. Keep Leake in mind as the season progresses, but he should not be on your roster following your league's draft.

I hope this behemoth of a post was useful. If you have questions, comments or criticisms, about the above analysis or regarding any players in particular, please post them in the comments below and I will respond the best I can. Tune in next week, for the final set of preseason rankings—relief pitchers.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 2:10am

Thursday, January 13, 2011

2011 Top 10 Prospects: Houston Astros and Arizona Diamondbacks

Houston Astros: Top 10 Prospects

1. Jordan Lyles / SP / Lyles doesn't have an overpowering fastball, but his change-up makes it look better than it is. He has plus command and movement on everything he throws except for his curveball, which shows promise but is a long way off. He has a chance to be the next Oswalt-level Houston hurler.
2. Jiovanni Mier / SS / His defense should be an asset going forward, but he showed that improvement and consistency is needed. Offensively, his slight power and speed potential didn't play much of a factor in 2010 and his strikeout rate was too high, but he showed effective plate discipline. He is still one of my favorite players in the minor leagues but needs to bounce back.
3. Delino DeShields / 2B/OF / DeShields looks like a bit of an overdraft at No. 8 overall in the 2010 draft. He has speed to burn, is a solid defender, and has a little bit of power potential, yet is raw in his plate approach. But that's to be expected of a high schooler. I like him but don't love him.
4. Mike Foltynewicz / SP / Foltynewicz fits the high-upside high school mold with his tall frame, athleticism, low-90s heat, and feel for his secondary offerings. The tools are likable, but there is so much to prove.
5. Tanner Bushue / SP / Bushue had a so-so full-season debut. His body has not taken a jump forward to this point, leaving his velocity in the low 90s at best. His curveball has shown promise, but his overall command has been inconsistent.
6. Jonathan Villar / SS/3B/2B / Villar's strikeout rate and fielding percentage don't inspire much confidence, but he is 19 years old, has some speed to work with, and a nice line-drive swing.
7. Jimmy Paredes / 2B / Paredes is an intriguing athlete with good speed, solid contact skills, and power potential, but is too undisciplined at the plate to fully buy in. Whether or not his power develops could be his make-or-break factor.
8. Austin Wates / OF / Wates has pretty much average skills across the board and still has some projection in his bat. Some say his power could take off, while others think his plate discipline could separate him.
9. J.D. Martinez / OF / His displayed home run power is pushing Martinez up prospect boards, but his flat swing makes me think it won't show at higher levels. His strong approach at the plate should translate, giving him a shot at the majors.
10. Jay Austin / OF / After Martinez, Houston's system thins out considerably. Austin has game changing speed, but his strikeout-to-walk ratio isn't doing him any favors. He still has considerable upside and the ability to improve.

Houston Astros: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Jordan Lyles / SP
2. Brett Wallace / 1B/3B
3. Jason Castro / C
4. Jiovanni Mier / SS
5. Delino DeShields / 2B/OF
6. Mike Foltynewicz / SP
7. Tanner Bushue / SP
8. Jonathan Villar / SS/3B/2B
9. Jimmy Paredes / 2B
10. Austin Wates / OF

Arizona Diamondbacks: Top 10 Prospects

1. Jarrod Parker / SP / Reports are positive regarding Parker's return from Tommy John surgery. I am cautiously optimistic. Even though he is a question mark, he is still the best that Arizona's farm system has to offer.
2. Tyler Skaggs / SP / Skaggs has one of the best curveballs in minor league baseball. His fastball sits in the low-90s and his change-up is a below-average offering. He is intriguing but will need to show he has something else to scare hitters with besides his breaking ball.
3. Wade Miley / SP / Miley's curveball isn't far behind Skaggs'. He does a great job of inducing groundballs, and his defense aided him on his way to a breakout 2010.
4. Bobby Borchering / 3B/1B / Borchering is still whiffing more than anyone expected, but posted a stellar 2010. His best tool, his power, took a great first step. Defensively it got ugly at times. It would be a shame if he needs to move to first base, as his arm would be wasted there.
5. Pat Corbin / SP / Corbin has sharp command of a balanced and advanced-for-his-age three-pitch mix, plus he is young enough to gain velocity and potentially develop his slider into an out pitch.
6. Matt Davidson / 3B/OF/1B / Davidson posted a year that was very similar to Borchering's, although I don't see as much future power projection for Davidson. Other than the power, they are similar prospects.
7. Charles Brewer / SP / Brewer showed superb command of a modest repertoire against Single-A competition. He will be 23 when he hits Double-A in 2011 and will either sink or swim.
8. Chris Owings / SS/2B / Owings is young but rather limited in his upside. The best thing he has going for him is that his defense looks stellar at shortstop. He also has some speed to work with and a short, disciplined swing.
9. Marc Krauss / OF / Krauss has disappointed with his contact rate, which was supposed to be a skill that was at least average. His power played up in the California League (whose doesn't?), but doesn't project to be anything more than average.
10. A.J. Pollock / OF / Mike Belfiore and Ryan Wheeler received consideration, but Pollock is the better all-around prospect and also the better bet to reach the majors one day, despite his lack of a standout tool and injury history.

Arizona Diamondbacks: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Justin Upton / OF
2. Daniel Hudson / SP
3. Jarrod Parker / SP
4. Brandon Allen / 1B/OF
5. Tyler Skaggs / SP
6. Barry Enright / SP
7. Wade Miley / SP
8. Bobby Borchering / 3B/1B
9. David Hernandez / RP/SP
10. Gerardo Parra / OF

Posted by Matt Hagen at 5:01am (7) Comments

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Why head-to-head?

A belated Happy New Year, folks. I was off last week fulfilling my New Year’s resolution to miss more article deadlines. Let’s start 2011 with something nice and potentially incendiary.

I’m just going to come out and say it – I don’t fully understand why most high stakes, competitive, and expert leagues are conducted in the head-to-head (H2H) format. There, I said it. I’m not trying to be a contrarian or an iconoclast; I just don’t see any fundamental superiority of the H2H set-up compared to the rotisserie (roto). To be fair, I understand how some of the H2H dynamics are entertaining and motivating, but, frankly, I think it’s plainly obvious that such a system is inferior for determining a league winner.

The most important thing to understand about the H2H and roto set-ups is that there is no fundamental difference between the two in terms of measuring player production. The head-to-head dynamic of a H2H league is artificial and contrived. There is no meaningful, direct, competition between two teams who are matched up with one another in any dueling sense. The competition aspect exists solely as a contrived binary, and is achieved by limiting the more fundamental and omnipresent rotisserie scoring dynamic. That is to say, the H2H format is is a roto league divided into several incomplete competitive universes and time periods, that's all. You are still playing a roto league, but only competing with a sliver of the league. From such limited comparisons, the system then extrapolates and awards wins. It turns raw production into victories and ensures that there will always be the same number of wins and losses to go around, and necessitates they get distributed in a certain way.

Essentially, all the H2H format is doing to the game is increasing the likelihood of “bad beats” and decreasing the likelihood that the best owner with the best team emerges victorious. This is done both by forcing teams to compete only against a single team at a time and by slicing the season randomly into chunks of small sample sizes, increasing the likelihood of random variation.

In fantasy football, the frustration of outscoring most of the teams in your league in a given week only to have lost to the best performing team in the league is well known. Given the general nature and schedule of fantasy football, it seems inevitable that the game overwhelmingly embrace this league structure dynamic almost as a necessary evil. But, it doesn’t seem as logical for fantasy baseball—the stats geeky fantasy underbelly of the already stats-obsessed real sport—to embrace such a probabilistically-flawed model. Why are the same folks who read in-depth articles about the mathematical chops behind xFIP voluntarily injecting additional randomness into their fantasy experience?

Some folks claim to like the H2H scoring style because it mimics the one-team-versus-another aspect of actual baseball games. But I don’t think it embraces much of the mano-y-mano aspect real sports do at all. Granted, one can argue the outcomes of actual games aren’t always reflective of which team is actually superior, any more than a weekly fantasy match-up does, but the dynamic of a real game consists of physical players reacting to the actions of those on the other team. There’s a seamless back-and-forth, a cause and effect, a chess match. In what ways does H2H fantasy baseball allow a manager to square off against a competing manager in ways that don’t exist in roto-style fantasy baseball? I guess you can play the two-start pitchers over stronger one-start pitchers, but just about every other strategic decision exists in roto leagues as well. Yes, H2H makes more of the nuanced microtrend—pick up waiver wire hitter on Colorado road trip, add lopsided handedness split player in your line-up when the match-up is in his favor. But such strategies are there for the taking in roto leagues as well, and within the H2H paradigm, their outcome is just that much more prone to randomness that doesn’t jibe with a larger statistically-significant truth. It seems that anything that can be done on a strategic level in H2H can be done on a macro scale in roto.

Why create worthless production and preclude the stockpiling of value? The second homer beyond your opponent’s total, and all subsequent homers in a scoring period, are valueless in a H2H league.

Why submit to a playoff system that lets 20 weeks of dominance ride at full value over 5% of the trial length?

Why take the care to select wise, sensible, and balanced categories only to see that punting one or more of them is a viable strategy? Punting categories in H2H leagues can work, while winning roto league with a “1” in any category is a tall order.

I’m not trying to be overly judgmental here; I truly don’t understand why one would prefer H2H to roto in any high stakes, highly competitive, or expert league. The H2H structure is an equalizer of opportunity that forces sharps to give away a considerable portion of their edge.

As I mentioned earlier, I understand the non-structural appeal of the H2H league. Roto leagues may lead to more deadbeating, as deficits can become insurmountable, or at least seemingly so, early on. I understand that the trash-talking dynamic of a league may be enhanced by the H2H format. But, these points underscore the reason I distinguish expert, highly competitive, and high stakes leagues throughout this article. Such leagues shouldn’t require what is essentially a gimmick to artificially restrain competition and embroil passions and attentiveness.

As previously mentioned, some will defend H2H on the basis that it more accurately mimics a sport. But, fantasy baseball is not the simulation of a sport. Round-robin H2H is a perfectly logical to organize a baseball simulation game, like Strat-o-matic. Fantasy baseball, however, is a puzzle-solving challenge that plays out in real-time based on real-life events. The most just way to determine who is best at it is to allow players to set themselves up into different universes of competition and to compete openly, completely against all others in the universes they construct.

The issues of true skill versus performance and the maddening and mysterious cloud of sample size never sets; such is the fascinating, yet infuriating cellular level of the most beautiful pastime of all. Amid the ever-frustrating, perpetual motion machine that is uncertainty of baseball and our never-ending quest for the game’s Rosetta Stone, why willfully infuse external variables into the experience if you don’t need to do so a motivational tactic? Simply, what is to gain?

Obviously, I was being facetious about my resolution up-top. But, I did slip a bit toward the end of 2010 in keeping up with comments, so I will try to be better at that in 2011. I have a feeling the article should generate its share and I’m truly curious as to everybody’s opinion on this matter.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:17am

Twisting Oliver: stretching out the arms

Think of beginning your fantasy baseball prep as starting a workout program after you’ve been totally inactive for a few months (or longer). Before you get into the heavy lifting, you first have to warm-up, stretch a bit. That’s what we did last week with a few hitters, and now we'll loosen up with a few pitchers.

As we inch closer to April, we'll start focusing in on specific types of player, and adding more weight as we go, but for now, here's a brief, and admittedly random, look at a few hurlers whose Oliver projection caught my eye upon first glance.

As will be the case throughout, I've used Tom Tango's formula of 2*W + SV + K/5 + IP - (H + BB + ER)/2 to assign a position rank based on what Oliver projects for the upcoming season.

For an in-depth explanation of the Oliver Projections, make sure to read creator Brian Cartwright's write-up. And if you haven't already, don’t forget to purchase the THT Forecasts to gain access to all the projections, along with many other useful tools to help you dominate your league in 2011.

Colby Lewis

2009: 2.96 ERA/0.99 WHIP/9.4 K/9
2010: 3.72 ERA/1.18WHIP/8.8 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.20 ERA/1.12 WHIP/8.5 K/9

After altering his delivery, refining his slider, and learning how to pound the strike zone in Japan, Lewis came back to the U.S. a completely different pitcher than when he left in '07. The result: a World Series appearance, and a plaque on his mantle proclaiming him the "2010 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper of the Year." Or there should be anyway.

Oliver Thinks...he can be even better this season. Lewis' end totals last season were predictably higher than what he posted abroad, but the skill-set translated nicely. Lewis was among the elite in terms of his K/9 (8.8) and finished with a K/BB ratio (3.0) that ranked in the top 25 of starting pitchers.

I Think...Oliver's infatuation with Lewis, which began prior to last year and proved spot-on, is well founded. Nothing was out of line with his BABIP in 2010, and his FIP (3.55) and xFIP (3.93) were both under four. His strand rate was on par with the league average, and his brilliant postseason (1.72 ERA in four starts), proved his arm is capable of handling 200 innings, and then some. He was also remarkably consistent, completing six innings in 24 of his 32 starts, and only giving up more than four runs on three occasions.

His posted FB% of 44.9 is a bit worrisome considering the homer-friendly environs of Arlington, but his HR/FB rate was a pretty normal 8.2 last year, and it was even lower at home (6.6) than it was on the road (9.3). According to the Tango ranks, Lewis comes in as the 11th-best starting pitcher on the board, and while I think that may be a tad high, a second consecutive top-20 finish seems entirely possible.

Ricky Romero

2009: 4.30 ERA/1.52 WHIP/7.1 K/9
2010: 3.73 ERA/1.29 WHIP/7.5 K/9
2011 Oliver: 4.45 ERA/1.45 WHIP/6.8 K/9

Romero was brilliant over the first month of 2010, posting a 2.25 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, and 7.7 K/9 in his first five starts, but his numbers returned to the realm of the reasonable, and he posted a 4.03 ERA/1.36 WHIP from May on. Still, for a 25-year-old pitcher in the toughest division in baseball, his second season can only be considered a success.

Oliver Thinks...we're more likely to get the 2009 version of Romero than the 2010 model. Despite his lofty draft status (sixth pick in the 2005 draft), Romero's minor league numbers were so unimpressive (4.42 ERA/1.47 WHIP/7.0 K/9 in 430 minor league innings) that many fantasy owners remain skeptical about his big league ceiling. Apparently, so does Oliver.

I Think...I believe in Romero more than most. His xFIP was nearly identical to his ERA last year (3.75 ERA to 3.73 xFIP), and, by almost all measures, he made positive strides as a sophomore, despite a BABIP that registered 31 points lower. Already an extreme groundball inducer, Romero ever-so-slightly improved in that department, drawing grounders 55.2% of the time, one of only nine players with a number above 55%. His K/BB saw a healthy bump, from 1.78 to 2.12, and his HR/FB ratio declined from an inflated 12.8% in '09 to a more tolerable 9.4% in 2010.

Pitching in the AL East does him no favors, but if he can take another small step in his development. and limit the major blowups – he allowed 35% of his total earned runs in just five starts – Romero looks destined to far outperform his Oliver projection.

Josh Johnson

2009: 3.23 ERA/3.40 WHIP/8.2 K/9
2010: 2.30 ERA/1.11 WHIP/9.1 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.29 ERA/1.19 WHIP/8.1 K/9

Johnson finished 2010 with an NL-leading 2.30 ERA, and from the start of May to the end of July, there wasn't a pitcher in the fantasy universe as dominant as the hulking righty. He posted a 1.31 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 during that stretch, and at one point reeled off 13 straight starts without surrendering more than two runs, though with the Marlins sputtering at the plate, he only managed to record seven wins. August got a little bumpy, and he was shut down in early September with a balky back, but in the end, nobody was complaining.

Oliver Thinks...J.J. isn't an SP1 in 12-team leagues. Even if you take the THT Forecast for innings pitched (195 instead of the 175 Oliver projects), Johnson only comes in as the 16th-best starting pitcher, sandwiched between Tommy Hanson and Roy Oswalt.

I Think...Johnson has better chance to finish as the top pitcher in the game than outside the top 20. His xFIP (3.15) was 85 points higher than his ERA last year, which was an expected discrepancy considering he posted a league-low 4.2% HR/FB. That ratio will definitely rise in 2011, but with a career number of 7.1%, don’t look for it inflate too much, giving him room for regression while still being able to maintain a sub-3.00 ERA.

As for the rest of his numbers, his K/9 increased from 8.2 to 9.1, thanks in large part to a 2.5 point jump in his Swinging Strike percentage (SwStr%), which at 11.8% was good for the third-highest mark in the league. Also positively, his BB/9 decreased from 2.50 to 2.35, marking the second straight season he's seen his strikeouts head north, while his walks went south. Entering his physical prime, the only thing holding Johnson back is a potentially hindered win total, but even that won’t be enough to stop him from being an SP1 in all formats.

Mike Leake

2009: 1.71 ERA/0.84 WHIP/10.2 K/9 (at Arizona State)
2010: 4.23 ERA/1.49 WHIP/5.9 K/9
2011 Oliver: 3.52 ERA/1.21 WHIP/7.5 K/9

Bypassing the minors completely, Leake proved worthy by posting a 2.22 ERA and 1.23 WHIP through his first 11 starts. Then he ran smack into the wall in June, and watched his ERA inflate until he was sent to the bullpen in August.

Oliver Thinks...he'll take a significant step forward in his second year, lowering his ERA 71 points, his WHIP 28 points, and increasing his K/9 from 5.9 to 7.5, which, if you extrapolate those projection out to the THT Forecast for IP (190), places him firmly in the top 30 of SP.

I Think...the optimism is understandable – Leake induced ground balls at a 50% clip, and after issuing 12 free passes in his first two starts, only allowed 35 in his final 20 outings, good for a 2.5 BB/9 that would have ranked in the top third among qualified pitchers. BUT, his BABIP of .317 was above the league norm, and his HR/FB ratio was quite high at 13.2%. That can be explained away partly by his groundball tendency and home ballpark, but it was still three points higher than any other Reds pitcher with at least 100 innings pitched. He also failed to strike out more than six hitters in any outing, and only surpassed five Ks three times.

One could argue his expansive repertoire, good control, and knowledge of his craft are sure to lead to better numbers, and that after the league adjusted to him last year, it's his turn to make the adjustments. I wouldn't necessarily argue against those points, but considering the plethora of quality starting options in Cincinnati right now, there's a decent shot Leake isn't even in the rotation at the beginning of the season. Obviously, the situation will remain fluid right up until the end of spring training, but I have a hard time envisioning he's anything more than a matchup play in 12-teamers in 2011.

Posted by Chris Ryan at 5:01am

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

More dynasty rankings

A week ago Josh, Jeffrey, and I debuted our dynasty rankings and the discussion afterwards was informative. Based on what I gathered from that discussion, I've updated my original 25 and added seven more players to expand the list to 32. Below is my original list and new list side-by-side.

Just a quick reminder this is a list of the top players aged 25 or younger.

+----+-------------------+-------------------+
| Rk | Old List          | New List          |
+----+-------------------+-------------------+
|  1 | Evan Longoria     | Evan Longoria     |
|  2 | Carlos Gonzalez   | Felix Hernandez   |
|  3 | Jason Heyward     | Jason Heyward     |
|  4 | Justin Upton      | Stephen Strasburg |
|  5 | Felix Hernandez   | Carlos Gonzalez   |
|  6 | Mike Stanton      | Andrew McCutchen  |
|  7 | Jay Bruce         | Jay Bruce         |
|  8 | Andrew McCutchen  | Mike Stanton      |
|  9 | Carlos Santana    | Clayton Kershaw   |
| 10 | Stephen Strasburg | Mat Latos         |
| 11 | Mat Latos         | Carlos Santana    |
| 12 | Buster Posey      | Buster Posey      |
| 13 | Clayton Kershaw   | Tommy Hanson      |
| 14 | Tommy Hanson      | Justin Upton      |
| 15 | Pablo Sandoval    | Yovani Gallardo   |
| 16 | Yovani Gallardo   | Jeremy Hellickson |
| 17 | Jeremy Hellickson | Domonic Brown     |
| 18 | Domonic Brown     | Pedro Alvarez     |
| 19 | Pedro Alvarez     | Desmond Jennings  |
| 20 | Brett Anderson    | Mike Trout        |
| 21 | Desmond Jennings  | Brett Anderson    |
| 22 | David Price       | David Price       |
| 23 | Mike Trout        | Matt Wieters      |
| 24 | Jesus Montero     | Daniel Hudson     |
| 25 | Madison Bumgarner | Billy Butler      |
| 26 +-------------------+ Madison Bumgarner |
| 27 |                   | Jesus Montero     |
| 28 |                   | Mike Moustakas    |
| 29 |                   | Freddie Freeman   |
| 30 |                   | Jhoulys Chacin    |
| 31 |                   | Eric Hosmer       |
| 32 |                   | Elvis Andrus      |
+----+-------------------+-------------------+

First off, why 32? Because it gets harder and harder to rank players in this format as the type of player polarizes into two general groups—less exciting MLB regulars (Gordon Beckham, Pablo Sandoval) and players farther away from the majors (Julio Teheran, Bryce Harper).

Speaking of Harper, I found it nearly impossible to rank him given his unique potential. I will say that if I do not feel so strongly about my chances to contend for the next two years, I would probably flip most of the players ranked in double-digits for him.

Going back to why I stopped at 32, relievers such as Neftali Feliz and Aroldis Chapman should be ranked soon, and reliever value is not something I wanted to make a decision on.

Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Jake McGee, Kenley Jansen, Chris Sale, and probably a host of relievers I'm forgetting are not far behind them.

So let's look at what changed in my new list compared to the old. I agree with Jeffrey and a few of the commenters—Felix Hernandez is in a class of his own and deserves that ranking. Plus, there is no chance the Mariner's offense is worse than it was last year.

I moved Strephen Strasburg up all the way to fourth. Yes, he will miss most—likely all—of 2011, but talent like his is worth waiting for. What scouts call command is usually the hardest thing for pitchers to regain after Tommy John surgery and he had unbelieveable command pre-surgery, so I think he will find his feel again.

Agreeing with commenter "PAU," I moved the contact-challenged Justin Upton and Mike Stanton below Andrew McCutchen and Jay Bruce. McCutchen is a true five-tool star and will look very similar to Carlos Gonzalez once CarGo's batting average regresses some this year.

Trust an Upton at your own risk. (Icon/SMI)

Upton I dropped all the way to 14 because his expected projection is not beyond Buster Posey's or Carlos Santana's enough to overcome their catcher value. Upton has the prospect-hype, the tools, and, at 23, a small window of youth in baseball years to improve, but like his brother, B.J., I see him as more of a tease than a turn-on with his actual production. I like Zach Sanders' write-up of Upton on Fangraphs from a few months ago.

I agree with the masses and flip-flopped Mat Latos and Clayton Kershaw. The two are projected for similar numbers but Latos' innings jump makes him a slightly higher risk.

Mike Trout is the only player without Double-A experience on this list, but I believe his potential justifies the ranking. He unquestionably has speed, stealing 56 bases between the Low-A and High-A levels. He also displayed solid plate discipline and projects to have decent power. His performance in Double-A this upcoming season will be telling, but if I own, for example, David Price in a league, I'd take the bet that Trout succeeds before his stock potentially rises higher come this time next year.

Three new players cracked my top 25: Matt Wieters, Daniel Hudson, and Billy Butler. Two years ago Wieters would have been near the top of this list, but after two mediocre MLB seasons his stock has taken a hit. His monstrous 2008 season in the minors should not be completely forgotten, though, and he has shown enough promise in the majors to make me cautiously optimistic about his future.

In his first year starting in the majors, Hudson delivered on his potential, particularly in Arizona. I don't know how close he was to making Josh and Jeffrey's lists, but I wrongly overlooked him on mine.

Especially at first base, Butler's production won't stand out, but dependability has its place in fantasy baseball. With Butler you can sleep easily to a .300+ average and 20 homers.

Freddie Freeman is a similar player to Billy Butler—think .290 average with mild power. He is just 21, so there is potential for improvement, but at the very least he should be a useful player. He should get plenty of MLB playing time this season as he is slotted as the Braves' starting first baseman for 2011.

Jhoulys Chacin had a fantastic rookie season, though I am wary of him experiencing a setback in 2011. At just 23, there is time for him to sharpen his control and command.

Posted by Paul Singman at 5:02am

Monday, January 10, 2011

Who’s Your Jose?

Once upon a time in the Land of Celine, there lived a man whose legend was that of myth and ancient lore. He roamed the frigid dirt to the North but his story resonated to all who would listen. This great warrior’s spirit lies in the Ruthian power that exploded from his core. Many a rival quaked in fear as no man could contain him nor could they explain him. His name is Jose Bautista, and there is only one Jose. This is the story of my failed quest to find the 2011 Reincarnation of the Great Jose Bautista...

In all seriousness, this task was rather lofty, and I expected to fail. We’ll look at the ramifications of the Jose Bautista 2010 season later. As we begin to critique my failures, I want you to understand the parameters I set for myself as I began this journey. I first tried to dissect Jose’s season and determine some characteristics that could identify a future Jose. I came up with four Jose-like breakout indicators:

1. Age 28+: I included all players over age 28 in this pool, but I tried to concentrate on the guys who were one strikeout away from playing for the Yomiuri Giants.

2. Change in approach (swing, discipline, stance, etc...): This can be a fun statistically undefined tactic, but we all love to watch the newswire with bated breath, waiting to see who gained weight, who lost weight, who got LASIK, who got Kevin Long to fix his swing (for all you Jeter lovers out there), and who is just doing a total overhaul.

3. Second-half power upswing (eight or more home runs in either August or September in 2010 or an ISOP of .280+): I love second-half stat increases. The hope these bring are always intriguing whether they actually point to future success or not.

4. Post Non-Hype Breakout: These are guys who lack the pedigrees of the Jay Bruces and Matt Wieters of the world.

First of all, I could not find one player who met all three character traits, only furthering my hypothesis that Jose Bautista circa 2010 was a one-time event. I did, however, find several players who met two or three of the criteria. These are my favorites of the list.

Age 28+, second-half power upswing: Vernon Wells.

It pains me to bring Wells to this list. To say the least, I’m not a fan. With no other options that aren’t stud level, I arrive at Vernon Wells. He started off 2010 with a .330 BA/9 HR month and ended with a .298 BA/8 HR month. Everything else in between wasn’t eye opening.

He was finally healthy and his power was notching in as the highest of his career. If his HR/FB ratio were to rise from 15 percent, 35 home runs are possible. According to MockDraftCentral, he’s going 98th overall. That’s fair but definitely not as low as Jose last year. Additionally, Vernon is a well known and hated entity. Well, maybe that’s just me. Vernon will not sneak up on anyone like Bautista did in 2010, and I think that’s a good thing.

Age 28+, change in approach: Jason Bay.

Prior to his season-ending concussion, Bay was tinkering with his swing, and now that he’s missed a significant amount of 2010, he’ll have to do a complete overhaul. Few had a worse season than Bay in 2010. Expectations were high and he more than failed to deliver. I think he’ll work hard this offseason and regain some of that power. I like him in this list because he represents a Josesque value at a 177 pick (MDC). Like Vernon, he has already established himself, but with a good, HEALTHY spring, he could offer you some power even if he calls Citi home. I’d say a safe .270 BA/20-25 HR/80+ RBI line would be reasonable, but he’s no “Jason” Bautista.

Age 28+, change in approach, second-half power upswing: Curtis Granderson.

Granderson may be the most fun guy on the list. All his indicators line up with that of Bautista sans his well established reputation as a solid fantasy player. Curtis struggled through 2010 until he worked with Kevin Long to “quiet” his swing. As The New York Times reported in August, Long was attempting to compact Granderson’s swing into tighter movements. This resulted in a nine-home run month of September. He still has the potential for 30-plus home runs and 30-plus steals, but he is also valued as such with a sixth-round draft position (MDC). He can’t realistically be considered a comparison to Jose Bautista, but the similarities are still fun to recognize. Who knows? With Yankee stadium, any given left-handed hitter could go for 50. Obviously, I’m kidding.

Age 28+, with second-half power upswing, post non-hype breakout: Ryan Raburn. Ryan had eight home runs in the month of August and followed that up with another five in September. Both months he hit over .300. Ryan Raburn represents a very interesting play and has the closest story to Jose Bautista’s. He didn’t change his approach, and he is still in a battle for playing time with Brennan Boesch.

I like Ryan Raburn, and he played 15 games at second, which could give him more fantasy value for 2011. If given 500-plus at-bats, I still couldn’t see more than 30 home runs. I will be watching the Tigers' spring training games, and if Ryan’s success carries over into the spring, he will get my Jose Bautista Reincarnation Award for 2011.

Lastly , I would like to address the experts and analysts. I have researched, observed, recorded, and disseminated Jose Bautista’s stellar year and cannot find one reason to dismiss a repeat. His second half may very well be one of the greatest legitimate power displays in baseball history. He hit .284 BA/33 HR/72 RBI in the second half. His ISOP was .357, almost 60 points better than Miguel Cabrera at second with .294. According to Hittracker online, he had the most “no doubt” home runs at 19.

I know the knocks that he doesn’t spray the ball around and he’s only done it for one year. But if Alex Gordon were to hit 54 home runs and have the sabrmetrics that Jose has then he’d be the no. 1 pick. I know there’s no way he maintains his 22 percent home-run-to-fly-ball ratio. I also know there’s little chance at 54 homers in 2010, but I think he replaces some home runs with batting average.

Both Baseball Prospectus and Ron Shandler have his adjusted batting average for 2010 in the .330 range. That’s nasty considering he only hit .260. My projection is .275 BA/40 HR/110 RBI. When everyone else passes, I will be jumping in, bad boy. Feel free to leave your Jose in the comments section, or if you don't like my Joses then you can tell me why.

Ben Pritchett can be reached at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), because we all need a friend sometimes.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 1:06am

Friday, January 07, 2011

Top 60 fantasy outfielders for 2011

Other 2011 fantasy rankings by position:
Catcher || First Base || Second Base || Shortstop || Third Base || Corner and Middle Infield

To remind everyone: These rankings are based on position eligibility. Players who are eligible at multiple positions will be ranked in comparison with others at each relevant position. You will also note asterisks next to the names of certain players. These indicate health risks. Health concerns have been taken into consideration, as have expected talent and expected playing time to yield expected production.

Position eligibility and evaluation criteria for these rankings are explained here.

Rank      Player              Team           Oliver Slash (2011)**
1         Ryan Braun          Brewers        .307/.367/.533
2         Matt Holliday       Cardinals      .301/.380/.500
3         Josh Hamilton*      Rangers        .301/.360/.501
4         Carlos Gonzalez     Rockies        .288/.340/.508
5         Carl Crawford       Red Sox        .287/.341/.426
6         Matt Kemp           Dodgers        .270/.328/.454
7         Jason Heyward       Braves         .308/.393/.539
8         Justin Upton        Diamondbacks   .291/.372/.536
9         Nelson Cruz*        Rangers        .272/.341/.504
10        Shin-Soo Choo       Indians        .294/.387/.480
11        Andrew McCutchen    Pirates        .277/.357/.448
12        Alex Rios           White Sox      .265/.313/.408
13        Jayson Werth*       Nationals      .261/.361/.460
14        Ichiro Suzuki       Mariners       .309/.351/.392
15        Jay Bruce           Reds           .265/.336/.486
16        Mike Stanton        Marlins        .283/.359/.623
17        Jacoby Ellsbury*    Red Sox        .266/.324/.359
18        Hunter Pence        Astros         .270/.324/.445
19        Drew Stubbs         Reds           .232/.306/.354
20        Curtis Granderson*  Yankees        .246/.324/.433
21        Andre Ethier        Dodgers        .278/.356/.485
22        Torii Hunter        Angels         .273/.346/.441
23        Domonic Brown       Phillies       .271/.336/.449
24        B.J. Upton          Rays           .244/.338/.394
25        Chris Young         Diamondbacks   .238/.320/.420
26        Colby Rasmus        Cardinals      .259/.338/.467
27        Jose Bautista       Blue Jays      .239/.347/.478
28        Grady Sizemore*     Indians        .250/.342/.453
29        Manny Ramirez*      Free Agent     .272/.371/.463
30        Nick Markakis       Orioles        .280/.358/.424
31        Brett Gardner       Yankees        .256/.353/.345
32        Carlos Beltran*     Mets           .278/.362/.447
33        Shane Victorino     Phillies       .267/.332/.413
34        Vladimir Guerrero   Rangers        .284/.332/.449
35        Desmond Jennings    Rays           .261/.335/.382
36        Jason Bay           Mets           .254/.352/.457
37        Adam Jones          Orioles        .271/.318/.429
38        Bobby Abreu         Angels         .257/.348/.404
39        Vernon Wells        Blue Jays      .272/.324/.446
40        Jose Tabata         Pirates        .298/.351/.422
41        Corey Hart          Brewers        .271/.327/.463
42        Ben Zobrist         Rays           .256/.361/.418
43        Juan Pierre         White Sox      .273/.329/.323
44        Carlos Quentin*     White Sox      .252/.339/.480
45        Angel Pagan         Mets           .278/.331/.417
46        Delmon Young        Twins          .292/.330/.464
47        Michael Bourn       Astros         .254/.325/.331
48        Travis Snider       Blue Jays      .263/.329/.470
49        Lance Berkman*      Cardinals      .262/.374/.443
50        Luke Scott          Orioles        .252/.331/.454
51        Nick Swisher        Yankees        .249/.346/.443
52        Coco Crisp          Athletics      .268/.338/.401
53        Logan Morrison      Marlins        .286/.376/.452
54        Hideki Matsui       Athletics      .253/.339/.412
55        J.D. Drew           Red Sox        .243/.350/.423
56        Aubrey Huff         Giants         .265/.339/.448
57        Michael Cuddyer     Twins          .270/.340/.449
58        Matt Joyce          Rays           .240/.340/.445
59        Rajai Davis         Blue Jays      .275/.316/.374
60        Carlos Lee          Astros         .259/.305/.412

*Assuming health (which means assuming the amount of health I expect from them), being tendered a contract.
**Oliver's 2011 projections have been updated. Most of the projections are essentially similar, but for the most up to date projections, subscribe to THT Forecasts by clicking here. If you are unsure of whether to subscribe to THT Forecasts, you can read about why I love THT Forecasts by clicking here

For those of you who caught the unfinished version of this list in my third basemen rankings two weeks ago, I apologize for the overwriting error. The numbers here represent my present-sense rankings after some tinkering.

These rankings place a premium on balance and counting stats over batting average. Outfielders tend to be the most balanced fantasy players, providing the most speed/power combination of any position. Balance is the key to a successful fantasy baseball campaign because it simultaneously fills out categories and diversifies risk. While some like to invest in single-stat commodities with higher upside, I will take two more balanced players.

For example, some might draft a few power guys (e.g., Nick Swisher) and a few steals guys (e.g., Juan Pierre) to collectively fill out their total production. This is unwise in my view for two reasons.

One, it takes up precious roster space, which—unless you are in a deep bench league—should be used for utility players, speculation picks and backup plans. Moreover, in the specialization approach to fantasy baseball, you put a lot of stock in individual players. If Jacoby Ellsbury was your steals guy last year, for example, you were ruined before May. An injury to a single player in the specialization approach can jeopardize your season, especially if his specialized skill set is hard to replace on the waiver wire. After all, how many of the top producers in steals and home runs are sitting on the waiver wire as back-up options?

If you draft for balance, however, even if balance sacrifices upside, you mitigate the risk. If a 15/15 guy goes down, you can likely find a 10/10 guy to replace his production while he is on the DL. Furthermore, the total amount of category you lose by that single injury is less because you've distributed your team's total stats per category among the players on your team. Accordingly, balance is a smart choice unless you are in shallow leagues or have an "all-or-nothing," high risk/reward, all-eggs-in-one-basket approach to fantasy baseball.

This mindset in mind, these rankings become more clear. In addition to balance, I put a premium on the counting stats. I view batting average as too volatile to predict accurately, and while I do not ignore it, I do not draft for it. That is why you might view some batting average outfielders as ranked "too low" on this list. Feel free to adjust them accordingly or argue their case in the comments.

Missing from these rankings are several names that I like: Chris Carter (.250/.339/.489), Josh Willingham (.253/.358/.456), Julio Borbon (.272/.319/.346), Denard Span (.276/.356/.371), Kyle Blanks (.261/.349/.452), Lastings Milledge (.263/.319/.375), and Ryan Kalish (.255/.331/.401). I could not justify including any in the rankings due to some perceived flaw, such as serious playing time concerns (Carter, Kalish, Millege), health concerns (Willingham, Blanks), or the team's dynamics and the player's unrefined skill set (Julio Borbon and base stealing). I also wish I could include Nolan Reimold (.244/.329/.399), but he's a pure wild card at this point.

I have some players ranked quite high here that I personally would not draft. Guys like Carl Crawford, Ichiro Suzuki, Jacoby Ellsbury, Luke Scott, and Brett Gardner are certainly valuable, but they are too "specialized" for my tastes. I owned Ichiro last year and while his batting average was useful, I learned just how much an underperforming (or injured) specialized talent can affect your team's bottom line. Instead, I'd rather take the balance approaches of Justin Upton, Matt Kemp, Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce, Drew Stubbs, Chris Young and Angel Pagan, even if they individually offer less of a production ceiling overall.

I know that five players in particular seem controversial: Desmond Jennings, Domonic Brown, Manny Ramirez, Grady Sizemore and Carlos Beltran.

With respect to Jennings and Brown: Both are "unpolished" rookies who underwhelmed in their brief September call-ups last season. Each, however, offers fantastic upside, has nothing left to prove in the minors, will be an Opening Day outfielder for his team, and has produced impressive major league equivalent batting lines.

Without a doubt, Jennings is a "Carl Crawford of the future" type*. He is the reason the Rays were able to so comfortably let Crawford walk without bidding more than an offer of arbitration for 2011 to the departed free agent (now a Red Sox). In the minors, Jennings stole 171 bases in 204 attempts over 420 games, producing an .824 OPS on the heels of a 10.6 percent walk rate and doubles power. While Jennings' touted power potential (15-20 home run capability) has yet to materialize, he is still only 24 and one of baseball's best prospects. He's a career .299 hitter in the minors, and I would not be shocked to see Jennings hit for a .280-plus batting average with five to 10 home runs, three-plus stolen bases and over 100 runs from atop the Rays' lineup (with upside to spare). Even better is the high floor given his skill set of walking, hitting for average and foot speed.
*I recently had to downgrade Jennings value, as the Johnny Damon signing is expected to bump him down to Triple-A to start the season.

Like Jennings, Brown is an incredibly talented hitter. He's the prospect the Phillies refused to trade for either Cliff Lee (the first time they got him) or Roy Halladay. Given those expectations, Brown's .257/.257/.355 line over 70 plate appearances last season was disappointing. Nonetheless, Brown is a talented hitter with more upside than Jennings, albeit less polished, as evident by his splits against same-handed pitching in the minors.

After putting up a minor league career line of .296/.373/.464 with 48 home runs to 89 stolen bases over 424 games, Brown demonstrated himself capable of 20+/20+ production with a strong batting average. Oliver expects a .271/.336/.449 line from Brown in 2011, while Bill James expects 25+/25+ production next season with a batting average around .290. My expectations for Brown are high, given his high ceiling (and high perceived floor).

The last three names—Ramirez, Sizemore, and Beltran—all come with their own blend of risk and upside. Manny is currently unemployed, going on 39 years old, hates playing day games and has been a perpetual injury risk. Irrespective of the injury risk and lack of employment, however, Ramirez has been quite fantasy-productive when he takes the field, especially in OBP leagues, and a move to the DH role should help preserve his health and keep him playing in those "tiring" day games. Over the past two seasons, Manny has averaged a .295 batting average, 20-plus home run production per 150 games, and good run/RBI rates, while posting OBPs north of .400. Reliable four-category production is rare and while deploying Manny as your first or second outfielder would be unwise, he makes a strong third or fourth outfielder risk that should be complemented with a backup option.

Both Beltran and Sizemore present big gambles. As recently as two seasons ago, both were perpetual top-20 fantasy picks. They were as safe and balanced and production as could be. Beltran was a lock for a .280-plus batting average with 25 or more home runs, 15-20 stolen bases and 100 run/RBI production from the middle of the Mets' fearsome offensive lineup. Sizemore was a perpetual 30/30 lock. In recent memory, however, both have been injured toxic assets.

For two years in a row, Sizemore burned those who took high-risk gambles on him (even last year, he cost me $18 via auction). Over the past two seasons, Sizemore has played only 139 games, over which he hit 18 home runs, stole 17 bases, and hit well under .250. Even injured, however, he still produced 88 runs and 77 RBI from atop the Indians' relatively weak lineup. Furthermore, Sizemore is only 28 years old and reportedly recovering well from his injury. While you should not pay top or even medium dollar for Sizemore, he remains a strong bounce-back player for 2011 if healthy, easily capable of top 30 production. His ranking here reflects my expected production, not his expected price tag. Do not spend more than $5 at auction.

Like Sizemore, Beltran could provide large dividends to those who gamble on him. Beltran has played 145 games over the past two seasons and while his polar BABIPs (.352, .275) in each of the past two seasons has caused wild batting average fluctuations (.325, .255), he has nonetheless been cumulatively productive while playing injured (a combined 17 home runs, 14 stolen bases). Now 33, Beltran's production ceiling, especially in light of his injuries, is lower than it was a few years ago. Nonetheless, Beltran has shown himself 20/20 capable while playing injured. Barring DL stints, Beltran should approach or exceed a 20/15 line in 2011, with a decent batting average to boot. He'll likely cost just as much as Sizemore, but offers less risk/reward potential.

As always, leave your love hate in the comments.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:00am

Thursday, January 06, 2011

2011 Top 10 Prospects: Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds: Top 10 Prospects

1. Aroldis Chapman / SP/RP / Chapman's fastball is already legendary. Combine it with his slider and he has the makings of an elite closer. The polish on his change-up in 2010 was surprising and may be the deciding factor between bullpen and rotation. I like him a lot, but the indecision regarding his role leaves me cold.
2. Devin Mesoraco / C / Mesoraco had a dynamite season thanks mainly to a shorter, quicker swing than he has shown in the past. His defensive potential is nothing to sneeze at, either, offering Cincinnati an all-around potential future asset at a premier position.
3. Yasmani Grandal / C / Despite what some are saying, Grandal is a solid defender in my book. From a catching perspective, he has power and plate discipline to spare, but I have my doubts as to whether he can make enough consistent contact to hit for a respectable average.
4. Yonder Alonso / 1B/OF / Alonso's stock has dipped this year. The home run power simply isn't where it needs to be. It's now safe to question his All-Star potential, but he does many things well and looks the part of an above-average first baseman.
5. Yorman Rodriguez / OF / It's rare to see a hyped, athletic teenager put his tools to work and immediately produce results. He literally has everything you want in an outfield prospect. We'll just have to wait and see how his pitch recognition and plate discipline translate to full-season ball.
6. Billy Hamilton / 2B/SS / Hamilton is an athletic young infielder who showed a better plate approach than anyone expected for his age. He has speed to burn and some power upside that hasn't presented itself yet.
7. Kyle Lotzkar / SP/RP / Cincinnati continues to be cautious with Lotzkar. Once turned loose, he has above-average velocity on his fastball and two promising secondary pitches.
8. Cody Puckett / 2B / Second base looks like Puckett's permanent home, and the power he showed in 2010 could turn him into a solid asset for Cincinnati. Whether or not his power or speed will show up as he advances through the farm system remains to be seen.
9. Todd Frazier / OF/3B/1B / Frazier's power and speed continue to play and could aid him on his way to becoming an average outfielder. But his strikeout rate spiked to scary levels in 2010. Trend or learning experience?
10. Juan Francisco / 3B / I thought about handing Juan Duran the No. 10 spot, Brad Boxberger has a lively arm, and Neftali Soto showed signs of life, but I finally decided on Francisco. Francisco's walk rate could destroy him, and his defense is shaky to say the least, but his power is an asset that separates him from the rest.

Cincinnati Reds: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Jay Bruce / OF
2. Aroldis Chapman / SP/RP
3. Homer Bailey / SP
4. Johnny Cueto / SP
5. Mike Leake / SP
6. Devin Mesoraco / C
7. Yasmani Grandal / C
8. Yonder Alonso / 1B/OF
9. Travis Wood / SP
10. Yorman Rodriguez / OF

Pittsburgh Pirates: Top 10 Prospects

1. Jameson Taillon / SP / Taillon is the best high school arm I've seen in awhile. He has everything going for him, including size, athleticism, velocity, poise, and the makings of an outstanding arsenal.
2. Tony Sanchez / C / Injuries derailed Sanchez's promising 2010 campaign. His upside is somewhat limited, but he has the intangibles and on-base ability, and he does all the little things you look for in a strong catcher.
3. Stetson Allie / SP / Allie had perhaps the best pure power arm of any high school hurler in the 2010 draft. But that's where the comparisons to Taillon stop. For now. He has huge upside but a long way to go to get there.
4. Rudy Owens / SP / A left-handed starter with plus command of an average repertoire is a tough asset to come by. He doesn't have an out pitch, but is a strike thrower who has a chance to settle into the middle of Pittsburgh's rotation one day soon.
5. Luis Heredia / SP / Pittsburgh has done a marvelous job of adding some premium young ace-caliber pitchers to their system. Heredia fits the mold due to his tender age, exciting fastball, and feel for his secondary offerings.
6. Jeff Locke / SP / Locke brings a similar profile to the mound as Owens. Locke doesn't have quite the velocity or strikeout track record, but he does know how to pump the strike zone and has a solid shot to be a successful big leaguer.
7. Andrew Lambo / OF / It is becoming harder and harder to believe in Lambo's upside, as his power numbers continue to go backward and his plate approach remains a negative. But I have been a Lambo supporter for awhile now, and I'm not completely giving up yet.
8. Robbie Grossman / OF / Grossman was one of my favorite sleepers of the 2008 draft, but his pitch recognition is holding him back. He is hacking way too much, which is even more concerning due to his minimal power numbers. The immense talent is still present, but I'm itching for better results.
9. Justin Wilson / SP/RP / Wilson opened some eyes by consistently sitting in the 93-95 mph range during the Arizona Fall League. His curveball is inconsistent but could become a plus offering down the road. His command is holding him back at this point and may relegate him to the bullpen soon.
10. Chase D'Arnaud / SS / Bryan Morris, Tim Alderson, Victor Black, and Brooks Pounders should not be forgotten, but I like D'Arnaud at No. 10. He plays strong defense, has a decent approach at the plate, a bit of power, and good speed. He has a shot to be an average major league regular.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Top 10 Players Under Age 26 (as of 4/1/11)

1. Pedro Alvarez / 3B
2. Andrew McCutchen / OF
3. Jameson Taillon / SP
4. Neil Walker / 2B
5. Tony Sanchez / C
6. Jose Tabata / OF
7. Stetson Allie / SP
8. Rudy Owens / SP
9. Luis Heredia / SP
10. Jeff Locke / SP

Posted by Matt Hagen at 5:01am (11) Comments

Wednesday, January 05, 2011

Twisting Oliver: wading into the batting pool

As a product of the fantasy generation, my calendar is divided up into two distinct seasons. March through August is devoted completely, 100 percent to rotisserie baseball. The early part of September can be a little confusing, with the start of the football and the end of the (fantasy) baseball season coinciding, but by the middle of the month, my full attention has been hijacked by the crazed beasts of the gridiron, and is typically held hostage through the end of the year.

That leaves a two-month window between January and February for me to relax, read a book or two, and spend some much-needed quality time with the wife. Yeah, right. And let my competition get a two-month head start on their prep work? I don't think so. Shunning evenings on the couch watching Boardwalk Empire for evenings in front of the computer studying xFIP is how trophies are hoisted and bragging rights are earned.

There are plenty of ways to get wet, but in this space, I want to specifically use the Oliver projections in the THT Forecasts as our springboard into the fantasy world. If you're unfamiliar with Oliver, creator Brian Cartwright has a must-read article explaining all the intricacies. Put in ultra-simplistic terms, it's a full-featured player projection system that uses a weighted mean of the previous three seasons, adjusted for age and park factor, and regressed to the mean.

Oliver's predictions shouldn't be viewed as the gospel truth, but rather as a tool by which to judge, compare, and dissect particular players and their fantasy prospects for the upcoming season. Consider this initial offering a dipping of the toe into the batter pool. Next week we'll get in up to our waist in pitchers, and the week after, we'll jump headfirst into the deep end. For now, though, here's a player at each position whose Oliver projection randomly caught my eye upon first glance.

One last note: I've used Tom Tango's formula of HR + SB + (H -.27*AB) + R/3 + RBI/3 to assign a position rank based on Oliver's projections. It's a widely-used, effective gauge of 5x5 value, and when applied to Oliver, shows a big-picture view of who the computer likes and who it doesn't.

CATCHER:

Matt Wieters

2009: .287 AVG/35 R/9 HR/43 RBI (385 PA)
2010: .249 AVG/37 R/11 HR/55 RBI (502 PA)
2011 Oliver: .266 AVG/62 R/16 HR/66 RBI (543 PA)

When Wieters was called up in 2009, he was supposed to be an MLB-ready backstop with good pop and a guaranteed .300 average in his back pocket. Instead, he's struggled to keep his average above .250, and the power has failed to befit a man once hyped as "God in Cleats." Perhaps "Kurt Suzuki in an Orioles Uniform" would have been a more appropriate moniker.

Oliver Thinks...the Suzuki comparison is spot on. According to the Tango formula, Oliver values Wieters as the 9th-ranked catcher, right behind the balanced, but unspectacular, Suzuki. Even with an anticipated power increase, Wieters won’t fulfill expectation until the BA migrates north of .280, at the very least.

I Think...a full explosion is still possible, but mainly because I just spent an inordinate amount of time re-familiarizing myself with Wieters' drool-worthy minor league numbers (32 HR/.343 AVG in 578 AB). He made some positive strides last year, walking a bit more, striking out less, and improving his overall contact rate by 5.2 percent. He even decreased his Swinging Strike percentage (SwStr%) to 7.2, a big drop from the 10.5 number he posted in '09.

The gains, though, failed to show up in his end numbers, primarily due to a BABIP that plummeted nearly 70 points, from .356 in '09 to .287 in '10. Assuming the BABIP normalizes somewhere between the two and he continues to make small strides in his approach, the Oliver line seems like a reasonable floor to pencil in for Wieters.

FIRST BASE:

Kendry Morales

2009: .306 AVG/86 R/34 HR/108 RBI (622 PA)
2010: .290 AVG/29 R/11 HR/38 RBI (211 PA)
2011 Oliver: .292 AVG/59 R/22HR/73 RBI (446 PA)

After a remarkably consistent 2009 season that saw him exceed nearly every expectation, Morales followed it up in 2010 by doing something at the plate no player in recent memory has been able to accomplish – though to be fair, not many have attempted to fracture their fibula while celebrating a game-winning grand slam.

Oliver Thinks...the Baseball Gods have it in for Morales. Taking into account his injury-shortened year and the lone full season of MLB production on his resume, Oliver projects him at only 446 plate appearances (407 AB), predictably stifling his counting numbers, and placing him just outside the top 15 at the position.

I Think...based on the data, it's understandable why Oliver is concerned about durability, but considering the freakish nature of last year's injury and the lack of past ailments, the worry seems unwarranted in this specific case. Last year, albeit in only two months of action, Morales showed no signs that his 2009 season was a fluke, and if you extrapolate the projections out to 500 AB, you'll see Oliver agrees, showing 27 HR, 91 RBI, and 73 runs. That kind of production would sandwich him firmly between Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis in the rankings, which seems just about perfect.

SECOND BASE:

Dan Uggla

2009: .243 AVG/84 R/31 HR/90 RBI (668 PA)
2010: .287 AVG/100 R/33 HR/105 RBI (674 PA)
2011 Oliver: .266 AVG/81 R/32 HR/97 RBI (619 PA)

Uggla has four straight 30-homer seasons, and, despite hitting in the middle of mostly mediocre Marlins lineups, he's never driven in fewer than 88 runs in his career. At a second base position light on depth, and even lighter in power production, Uggla's consistent bopping looks extremely appealing.

Oliver Thinks...even if you factor in a 20-point drop in BA, the only second baseman more appealing than Uggla is Chase Utley. That may have something to with the system's preference towards players with greasy, slicked-back hair, or maybe it's a sign Oliver hates all things related to New York (Robinson Cano) and Boston (Dustin Pedroia). Either way, Uggla projects as the only two-bagger to top 30 homers (as he was last year), and the only player north of 90 RBI (only he and Cano hit that total in '10).

I Think...it's hard to argue that a 30/100 season won't happen if Uggla manages to play more than 145 games, which he's done every year of his career. Personally, I'd still take Cano and Pedroia over him, mostly because a healthy batting average – even a .266 mark – can't be counted on out of Uggla. In five seasons, he's been total feast or famine, finishing with an average below .245 twice, and above .280 twice.

Considering all his peripherals held true to form last year, with the only notable difference coming in a BABIP 28 points above his career norm, it's logical to conclude 2011 won't feature the type of average that leads to the elite standing Oliver is suggesting.

THIRD BASE:

Pablo Sandoval

2009: .330 AVG/79 R/25 HR/90 RBI (633 PA)
2010: .268 AVG/61 R/13 HR/63 RBI (618 PA)
Oliver 2011: .299 AVG/77 R/21 HR/86 RBI (598 PA)

There wasn't a bigger disappointment, both literally and figuratively, than Sandoval in 2010. After being drafted as a top-five guy at third base, he was nearly unownable, especially in H2H leagues, where he provided a .336 average and nine homers in the months of April and August, but hit just .231 with four long balls in the other four months combined.

Oliver Thinks...Sandoval will, at long last, embrace the philosophy of "diet and exercise" during the offseason, and hopefully stop swinging at so many crappy pitches. Well, Oliver doesn't use those words exactly, but they’re certainly implied, because the only way the average bounces back to .300 and the power creeps into the 20-plus range is if he makes both a priority.

I Think...I'm sketched out by the thought of drafting him as a top-five player at 3B again, which Oliver indicates is a good idea. Last year his already inflated O-Swing% (swings at pitches outside the strike zone) jumped from 41.7 to 44.6 – with only Vladimir Guerrero embodying the "nose to toes" approach more than Pablo. Even more disconcerting, the percentage of pitches Sandoval swung at inside the zone dropped from 83.0 to 78.9, while his contact rate stayed static at 82%.

This indicates he was swinging at more bad pitches and fewer good ones, while making the same amount of contact—a recipe for declining batting average if I’ve ever seen one. I’m not quite ready to write him off as a cautionary tale of unchecked excess, but it’ll take a noticeably trimmer Sandoval, accompanied by glowing reports of a more restrained approach at the plate, before I’m willing to jump back on the Panda’s back.

SHORTSTOP:

Jose Reyes

2008: .297 AVG/113 R/16 HR/68 RBI/56 SB (763 PA)
2010: .282 AVG/83 R/11 HR/54 RBI/30 SB (603 PA)
Oliver 2011: .280 AVG/78 R/9 HR/51 RBI/24 SB (511 PA)

After an injury-marred '09 campaign, Reyes saw his production return exactly to the level it was prior to the calf injuries. Well, almost exactly. His stolen base total dropped to a very pedestrian 30, down from the 56 he pilfered in his last healthy season.

Oliver Thinks...age, injury, and a lack of walks will again prevent him from being an upper-echelon base stealer. Even if you take out the injury concerns and extrapolate Oliver's projections to 700 PAs, 33 SBs are all you get.

I Think...if Reyes stays healthy all year, he's still capable of a 50-stolen base season. Big “IF,” though. Last year he missed nearly all of training camp and the first week of the season with a thyroid issue, and dealt with an oblique strain that caused him to miss half of July and hindered his running ability when he did return. When Reyes was ailment-free he was very effective, swiping 29 of 36 bags outside of July, but the lack of attempts is of notable concern.

After averaging 80 attempts between 2005-08, he only registered 40 last season. You can chalk some of that up to injuries, but the plummeting walk rate, which fell to 5.5%, by far the lowest number he'd produced since '05, had as much to do with it as anything. Obviously, fewer walks equal fewer opportunities to steal bases. Oliver thinks that number will bounce-back to 7.2% in 2011, and if it does, and he stays healthy, the speed is still blazing enough to return Reyes to elite status. As it stands, he ranks a distant third at the disturbingly weak SS position.

OUTFIELDER:

Jason Bay

2009: .267 AVG/103 R/36 HR/119 RBI/10 SB (638 PA)
2010: .259 AVG/48 R/6 HR/47 RBI/10 SB (401 PA)
2011 Oliver: .263 AVG/72 R/22 HR/75 RBI/8 SB (544 PA)

Bay, fresh off a 36 HR/119 RBI season, was one of the worst hitters in baseball last season. In 95 games – his season was mercifully ended by a concussion in July – the 32-year-old managed to hit a home run in just four contests, finishing with a whopping six on the year, and his ISO fell from .269 to .144.

Oliver Thinks...similar to David Wright, Bay's power will return in his second season in Citi Field. Not to his Red Sox levels, but enough so that he's draftable as a third outfielder in 12-team leagues.

I Think...it's been proven that Citi Field wasn't the sole culprit for Bay's steep decline, though what was, I still have no idea. His K:BB ratio was pretty close to his career norm, and nothing was askew with his batted-ball numbers, either (other than his career-low 5.1% HR/FB, of course).

The only thing worth noting was an elevated swing percentage, particularly on balls outside the zone, but it's hard to tell if that was the result of a change in approach, or simply the byproduct of frustrated hacking that often accompanies prolonged slumps. Unless his skill set completely deteriorated on the flight from Boston to New York, Bay is an excellent bounce-back candidate you'll be able to purchase at a bargain-basement price.

Posted by Chris Ryan at 4:02am

Tuesday, January 04, 2011

Introducing xWHIP 2.0: the next generation

NOTE: THE ORIGINAL RELEASE OF THIS FILE HAD A TRANSPOSITION ERROR IN THE FORMULA. IT HAS BEEN FIXED AS OF JANUARY 8, 2011. I GREATLY APOLOGIZE FOR THE PROBLEM. PLEASE DOWNLOAD THE UPDATED FILE (link below). THANK YOU.

A few months ago, I debuted the first version of the expected WHIP (xWHIP) calculator, which took a pitcher's batted ball distribution and, in determining an expected number of hits, calculated that pitcher's expected WHIP. The tool was tinkered with and refined until version 1.4.3 was released and that, until now, has been the primary xWHIP tool available. xWHIP 1.4.3 overexpected WHIP a bit, but was otherwise pretty solid. Especially for relative comparison purposes, xWHIP 1.4.3 was a useful fantasy tool.

Not long ago, I was introduced to a fellow stathead by the name of Martin Alex Hambrick. He had done some number tinkering similar to what I had done independently with the xWHIP calculator, and he had an idea. He brought that idea to my attention, and from it a new formula for expected xWHIP was born.

Alex's idea was that a pitcher's actual innings pitched (aIP) are as much the by product of luck as expected hits (xHits). The theory is that a medley of defense, umpires, errors, random luck and the like skew the length of innings. The pitcher, for example, does not particularly control dropped third strikes by his catcher.

This idea is somewhat captured in the K% (K/TBF) and BB% (BB/TBF) movement of sabermetrics that rejects K/9 and BB/9 because the length of innings is largely out of the control of the pitcher, thereby skewing both K/9 and BB/9. Accordingly, we began work on a new denominator for xWHIP that incorporated an expected innings (xIP) total based on a pitcher's outs-creating events.

With this idea in mind, we began work on a new xWHIP calculation. Law school delayed my work on a final formula until this week, but with "way too much time on my hands" (i.e., any lawyers out there need a law clerk for the summer?), I finally got around to hammering out a reliable formula and user-friendly interface, calibrated to Baseball Info Solutions (BIS) data.

The current formulation for expected innings is as follows:

xIP = ((K*1.000075)+((BB-IBB+HBP)*0.00016)+((0.808)*GB)+((0.278)*LD)+((0.992)*IFFB)+((0.745)*OFFB)+(0.020099*(BB+HBP+xH)))/3

The coefficients in the above formula represent the expected outs by event rate. You might notice the two percent adjustment applied to both modified walks (BB-IBB+HBP) and expected hits (xH). That figure represents a ten-year average outs-per-runners-put-on-base rate (ORB). ORB encapsulates the ten-year league average pickoff and caught stealing rates.

Because catcher defense and a pitcher's pickoff talents are difficult to measure, and also not widely available, using a league average rate helps make the calculator more accessible. The final xWHIP figure should be mentally modified based on one's own perception of a catcher's pickoff ability or a pitcher's pickoff ability. If Jason Varitek is the catcher, you might want to raise the pitcher's calculated xWHIP, while the opposite would be true for those pitchers handled by Yadier Molina.

Alex is working on a simplified "Quick xWHIP" formula that simplifies the xWHIP calculation even further, to the point that you could do it on a calculator. He'll tell you more about that (and the accuracies of both xWHIP 2.0 and Quick xWHIP) in a (near-) future post. All I can say for now regarding the calculator's accuracy, at least to some degree of certainty, is two things. First, xWHIP works best—that is to say, it is most predictive—when you use multi-year data rather than year N-1 data. Second, the R^2 of the data seems to be solid for a predictive state.

Someone once told me (or maybe I just read it somewhere) that an R^2 of .30-.35 is strong for a predictive stat, while a .60 or greater R^2 is what is required of an evaluative stat. Using 2007 xWHIP 2.0 to predict 2008 actual WHIP resulted in an R^2 of .34 amongst the 78 pitchers who faced a minimum of 500 batters, compared to an R^2 of .26 for 2007 actual WHIP. Likewise, using 2008 xWHIP to predict 2009 actual WHIP resulted in an R^2 of .36 amongst the 80 pitchers who faced a minimum of 500 batters, compared to an R^2 of .30 for 2008 actual WHIP.

Strangely, however, using 2009 xWHIP to predict 2010 xWHIP amongst the 82 pitchers who accrued 500+ total batters faced merely resulted in an R^2 of .15 (compared to a .14 R^2 for 2009 actual WHIP). Maybe I crunched the 2009-2010 data incorrectly. Maybe this is a sample size issue. Maybe not. As I mentioned above, Alex will supply more details on the accuracy of xWHIP 2.0 shortly.

I also tinkered some with the expected hits formula, but the changes are relatively minor and hardly warrant discussion. The important thing to note about the new xWHIP tool is that it is now calibrated per the past five years of BIS data rather than Game Day. I have done this because I believe that Fangraphs utilizes BIS, not Game Day, as their source for ball in play (BIP) data. Accordingly, this should make the tool more accurate for the average user. Most of the data stood relatively stable, but here are the new expected hits by batted ball types:

Popups: .004
Groundballs: 0.236
Outfield Flyballs: 0.250
Line Drives: 0.716

These data points include home runs, which is why the Outfield Flyball expected hits rate is so high. If you take home runs out of the equation and account for them separately (as the xWHIP calculator does), the expected hits rate, per BIS, for Outfield Flyballs and Line Drives falls to .158 and .714, respectively.

You can download the new xWHIP tool, version 2.0, by clicking here. The password to utilize the xWHIP tool is still "soto 18" and the batted ball data you will need to plug in can be found at Fangraphs.com.

Picture below is a screenshot of the xWHIP 2.0 tool, which was used in my Zack Greinke forecast article. For explanatory purposes, this screenshot has the 2010 numbers of Roy Halladay plugged in.

As the instructions on the tool indicate, the gray cells are for data you should manually input. The magenta park factor cell is also a manual data cell, though the number should be left at "1.00000" unless you have the relevant park factor HR/FB index figure. You should not enter any data into any of the blue, green or yellow-orange cells.

The green cells feature the line drive-regressed expected-ball-in-play data. The yellow-orange cells display the expected innings, expected hits and expected WHIP for the pitcher, irrespective of defense. If you enter data into the Team Innings Pitched and Team UZR gray cells, then the blue cells will display a crude defensive adjustment to the expected hits total, assuming uniform defense and that all saved hits would be of the singles variety. All of the data cells are pre-formatted to visually round all numbers to keep the sheet clean, though cells will retain the full value of any number entered.

I also included a cell for xWHIP 1.4.3, calibrated from Game Day to BIS, in case people wanted to know a player's expected WHIP using expected hits and actual innings, rather than expected innings.

I hope everyone enjoys this. If you have any questions/concerns/comments/criticisms, please post them in the comments below or email them to .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address), with the subject line "xWHIP 2.0 Calculator."

On a final note, I would like to give a special thank you to several of my THT colleagues who have been invaluable in the creation of the xWHIP 2.0 tool. Without the assistance of Derek Carty, Dave Studemund, and Harry Pavlidis, none of this would have been possible. I apologize to each of you for my incessant e-mailing in attempt to work out the mathematical kinks in the formula.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:04am

Court is now in session to resolve your fantasy baseball disputes.

All rise. The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment is now in session. You may be seated. If you are reading this, I certainly hope you didn't actually stand up and sit down on those commands. If you did, then chances are you are either very impressionable or you are an obedient dog who can read. Either way, there is no need to be formal at this moment. I am the presiding Chief Justice of Fantasy Judgment, an independent, expert dispute resolution service for fantasy baseball leagues.

Fantasy Judgment is comprised of a five-person panel of expert judges who impartially render professionally-written decisions resolving any and all issues, disputes and conflicts that arise within fantasy baseball leagues. It is a virtual court (although I will hold court in person for the right price) where members of a fantasy baseball league can air their grievances and obtain a neutral, third-party opinion on how to resolve such dilemmas.

I wanted to take this opportunity to introduce myself to you and let you know that I will be contributing a bi-weekly column that focuses on various issues that commonly arise in fantasy baseball leagues. The most common types of disputes are over trades where people challenge the fairness and equality of deals made between league members. I would estimate that 80% of the cases submitted to Fantasy Judgment are trade disputes. The other 20% of cases vary from a wide range of topics, but I don't want to give out those examples now. I need to whet your appetite and make you come back for more. I am thinking of names for this recurring column, and the one that resonates well with me right now is "The Verdict."

The world of fantasy baseball dispute resolution combines both fantasy sports and the law. I am a lawyer, so that is extremely helpful when doing legal analysis. But the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment does not cite blackletter law in its decisions. We are trying to build a body of work where a ledger of fantasy sports jurisprudence can become a standard reference for any fantasy sports player to utilize. Writing a recurring column called "The Verdict" will allow me to present various fact patterns, hypotheticals, and scenarios of issues within leagues in a way that will allow you, the audience, to decide whether to agree (concur) or disagree (dissent) with the Court's ruling. I will also be sharing with you some of the decisions issued by the Court as they happen.

In order to give full disclosure, I must tell you that Fantasy Judgment requires payment in order to receive a formal written decision. There are two different pricing options - either $15.00 per individual dispute, or $100.00 for the unlimited season package. We dedicate a lot of time and effort into writing the decisions and analyzing the issues presented, so it is impossible to consider doing the work pro bono.

That being said, I want to create an environment with this column that will promote discussion, debate, questions, answers, advice and information. I want to educate you about how to handle certain situations internally to try to maintain the integrity of your league. I want to share with you the reasons why neutral, third-party dispute resolution is the fairest and most economical way to ensure that all parties' best interests are taken into consideration. I want to enlighten you as to why there is a need and desire for such a service now as compared to ten years ago. The whole point of this is to be honest with everyone and their expectations, and that there are reasons why it is worth paying for such a service.

For some background, allow me to tell you the story of how Fantasy Judgment came into existence. I am the Commissioner of my 18-team, head-to-head fantasy baseball league that has existed since 1999. In 2008, I was the proud owner of C.C. Sabathia , who had a magical run down the stretch with the Milwaukee Brewers. On Sunday, August 31, 2008, it was the final day of the week in my league's wild card playoff round. That day, I was driving home from a bachelor party with my best friend, who also happened to be my opponent that week. We were listening to the Brewers vs. Pirates on XM radio because Sabathia was pitching and our matchup was close heading into Sunday.

That infamous day, Sabathia would go on to throw a complete-game, one-hit shutout in which the only blemish on the scorecard was an infield hit by Andy LaRoche on a ball that Sabathia bobbled and threw too late to first base. When LaRoche reached first, the announcers questioned the official scoring, saying that it should have been an error on Sabathia. He would go onto the finish the game without allowing another hit. After the game, Brewers' manager Ned Yost stated that he would be protesting the official scoring to Major League Baseball requesting they change the hit to an error, thus giving Sabathia credit for a no-hitter.

In my fantasy baseball league, a no-hitter is worth 50 points. Also, when scores or statistics were modified, they were retroactive to when it actually happened. So I told my friend that if the league changed the official scoring, it would change the scores of our fantasy game. We later heard that Major League Baseball would be reviewing all of the evidence presented and make its decision later that week. Because of this delay, I had to make a decision on how to handle the next round of the playoffs since the result of my game was not conclusive yet. The winner of my game would be playing the Co-Commissioner, so he had a vested interest in the result, as well.

Given that all parties involved were not neutral and the fact there was precedent in how retroactive points were applied, I felt comfortable autonomously making a decision even though my own team was directly involved in the dilemma. I decided that both I and my opponent would submit lineups against the Co-Commissioner for the semi-final round and play concurrent games that week. If the league ruled that the official scoring would be changed to a no-hitter, then I would get credit for the 50 points and win the game. If the league ruled that the official scoring would remain as a one-hit shutout, then I would lose the game, since that was how the result stood.

Either way, the winning team would continue its game against the Co-Commissioner and the losing team would have its game removed. I also decided that if no decision was made by the end of that week, I would accept the loss and remove myself from the playoffs. I believed this was the fairest way to handle the situation without unduly prejudicing anyone else. Unfortunately, my Co-Commissioner and a few other league members took exception to the fact that I autonomously made the decision when it directly involved my own team. In the end, Major League Baseball upheld the official scoring and Sabathia was not given credit for a no-hitter. I kept my word, accepted the loss, and removed my game from the playoffs.

Because of the backlash I received from this decision, I wondered if there was a third party who could have intervened and made the decision independently. I did some research and found that there were a couple websites out there that performed dispute resolution services for fantasy sports leagues. I was not overly impressed with these websites or companies, and I believed that I could perform these type of services myself given my experience in fantasy sports and my background as an attorney. In 2009, I created Fantasy Judgment and focused a lot of time and energy on promoting it based on who we are and not just smoke and mirrors. I felt it was imperative to give full disclosure as to who is making the decisions and why we are qualified to do so. That type of transparency did not exist with the other websites I found.

Now I look forward to sharing with you the ins and outs of fantasy sports dispute resolution. I am open to questions, comments, suggestions and recommendations for issues and topics to discuss. My goal is to help you enjoy your fantasy baseball experience in a league that is free from drama and conflict. But, like anything else that involves money, sports and competition, there will always be drama and conflict in some capacity. It is just a matter of how you handle it that will help maintain your league's integrity and protect your sanity.

Court is now adjourned.

Posted by Michael Stein at 5:01am

Monday, January 03, 2011

Overspending for players in 2011

Overspending for Players in 2011

Ted Williams once said, “If I was being paid $30,000 a year, the very least I could do was hit .400.” This quote is really amazing to me because it not only shows the kind of character this Hall of Fame hitter had, but it also draws attention to the fact that $30,000 was an extraordinary amount of money back then. Most Americans could barely make it on this kind of scratch today. We are too busy with our iPhones and Hummers and blinded by our LED 3D TVs to recognize that the paper in our pockets is becoming more and more worthless. To me, that is also what’s beautiful about being an American. We live in a time where information is everywhere. Anything you want, you can have. No luxury is too great or too small if you have the means to obtain it. Spending drives the economy, and likewise, spending will drive your fantasy team. As we enter a new year and a new time of life, let’s let the nation’s economy handle itself for the day and concentrate on better understanding our fantasy baseball economy.

Since every fantasy writer in the business likes to generate lists of “value guys,” “waiver wire gems,” and “bargain bin all stars,” I will go against the grain, channel that American spirit, and give you my list of guys on which to overspend. These are players I feel are so undervalued by the masses that you would be foolish not to pay more for their services.

2011 Overspending List (no particular order)

The Stud: Ryan Braun. He is currently being drafted about 13th overall according to Mock Draft Central. He’s been drafted as high as seventh. I argue that I would draft him fifth behind Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, and Joey Votto. I believe in Tulow, but not quite enough to rank him ahead of Braun. Carlos Gonzalez is the best bet to go 30/30 next year, but I feel his strikeouts and free swinging will make that batting average dip eventually.

Here are the facts, Ryan Braun has the eighth-most home runs of any major leaguer in history through his first four seasons. He had a down year and still posted an elite line of 101/25/103/14/.304. He is the picture of consistency, and I believe that his home run to fly ball ratio of 14 percent was an aberration. Once you examine his second-half split, you see the reversal back to 17 percent which is closer to his career average. The speed dropped a little and so did his stolen base opportunities, but double-digit steals should still be expected. The Brewers will be better in 2011, and assuming Prince Fielder stays put, Ryan Braun is my favorite for National League MVP, bad boy.

The Question Mark: Madison Bumgarner. The fact that this guy is getting drafted after Paul Maholm on average, makes me sick. Guys like Jhoulis Chacin, Randy Wells, Tim Stauffer are all being taken ahead of this young gun. I can’t wrap my brain around that information.

Madison is not going to be a 200-strikeout pitcher, but he’ll pound the zone with a fastball that is regaining velocity (up from an avg 89.2 to 91.3), a plus slider and change, and his newly added curveball. He has elite control with 2.2 walks per nine innings which should help him keep his WHIP down. Only Verlander, Billingsley, Lincecum, and Weaver were better than Bumgarner through September/October according to Fangraph’s WAR data. He’ll pitch as a four on a World Series winning rotation and has the make-up of a future ace. I personally love the fact that he struggled in the minors, dealt with it, and regained his top prospect status. Guys with those intangibles make for great pitchers who are great for many years.

The Guilty Pleasure: Mike Moustakas. I know I’m going to get flack for this selection in my overspend list, but I wanted to include him because he’s not being drafted at all. I understand that the Royals are in no hurry to expose him to the terrors that await him in that line up, but he will press them to give him a chance at the hot corner after a coasting through 100+ at-bats in Omaha. Whether the Royals wait until June 1 is not important. If you are in a deep league with a decent bench or any kind of keeper league, I would not let Moustakas slip off your radar as he’ll cost much more in free agent bidding or waiver priority.

He has an extremely large ceiling, well worth a last pick. Dismiss his line 94/36/124/.293 through Double-A and Triple-A in 2010 which is quite impressive. Please concentrate on his MLE’s of 72/25/95/.289. Only rivaled by Dominic Brown in all the minors last year, these MLE’s are stellar and point to the readiness of his bat. Thanks to Alex Gordon and Scott Boras we’ll have to wait but get your popcorn ready this guy has a chance to be huge.

The Ace in the Sleeve: Max Scherzer. There’s lots to like about Max Scherzer. He has two differently colored eyes. He throws a great fastball that averaged at 93.2 mph last year. He faced adversity and became a better pitcher (see Bumgarner). After a stint with the Mud Hens, Scherzer returned to the Tigers rotation with some of the most dominant stuff in all of baseball. His ERA of 2.74 and dominance of 10.17 (k/9) after the recall made for many a chin to drop. He is a big, strong 26-year-old right hander. His raw skills have never really been in question, but his consistency has. His WHIP will creep up at times, but all signs point to a 200+ strikeout season with a 3.50 or so ERA. He is being taken as a 210th pick, and my amazingly bold prediction is that he strikes out more hitters than that draft position. Don’t be caught looking.

Here’s my final soapbox. The real problem we face as our society has grown older, we have lost our wisdom. Ted Williams had it together. He understood that with great amounts of money comes greater amounts of responsibility. A fiscally responsible fantasy manager will always beat a whimsical free spender, but a fiscally responsible, whimsically wise spender is the greatest of them all.

Ben Pritchett can be reached with any questions, comments, gripes, considerations at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address)