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Friday, February 11, 2011Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 13-16On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011. They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder. We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over four weeks, each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of their picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below. Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12 Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this). Round 13Pick No. 1 (145 overall): Matt Garza Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 171 K, 206 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times Garza moving to the NL Central looked attractive enough for me to grab him as my fourth starting pitcher, but could moving to windy Wrigley negatively impact his numbers? It’s very possible given Garza’s rising fly ball rate (from 39.9 percent in 2008 to 44.7 percent last season) and his home-run-to-fly-ball-ratio has been friendly (or lucky) given his skill set. I do expect Garza to move away from his high usage of his four-seam fastball and balance it out with his two-seamer. Last season, Garza induced a healthy amount of groundballs via his two-seamer at nearly 50 percent and based on the moderate frequency of this pitch, I don’t see why he can’t use it more. Pick No. 2 (146 overall): Carlos Beltran Preseason projection: .274 AVG, 20 HR, 12 SB, 74 R, 74 RBI, 505 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Not the sexiest pick at this point, and certainly one with question marks, but Beltran presented a decent upside fourth outfielder. Now that he's further removed from knee surgery, one would hope Beltran is as healthy as he possibly can be, and able to hold up for more than 500 plate appearances. If healthy, he'll slot in the heart of the Mets' order, meaning he'll be in prime position to rack up counting stats. I'm skeptical of just how often he'll be allowed to run, but given his fantastic previous success rate, he may not need to run often to rack up 10-15 stolen bases (which is where I see his total settling in; any more would be gravy). With a healthy base, he should be able to drive the ball and rack up around 20 home runs in spite of his home run-supressing home ballpark. Overall, a healthy Beltran presents a solid across-the-board contributor, and as a fourth outfielder, a worthwhile health gamble. Pick No. 3 (147 overall): Jose Valverde Preseason projection: 26 SV, 3.00 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 64 K, 57 IP Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe I anticipated that I would be left without a premier closer this late in the draft. By the 11th round, I would have expected the likes of J.J. Putz, Huston Street and Jose Valverde to be off the board, but they still lingered in the 13th. I eventually chose Valverde, who I feel is the best bet to keep closing all the way through season's end. Despite Valverde's shaky second half, he managed to average a strikeout an inning and induced an all-time best 55 percent groundball rate. Granted that relievers can be volatile, Valverde has the best combination of job security and injury risk aversion of the closers left on the board at the time of this pick. Pick No. 4 (148 overall) J.J. Putz Preseason projection: 38 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 53 K, 50 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches While the vast majority of "experts" will tell you not to pay for saves, I prefer to pay for at least one guy. Unfortunately, when the "elite" closers run happened, I was in dire need of other positions like middle infield and first baseman, so I was no in hurry to draft an elite closer. (Seems like kind of counter intuitive advice: These experts tell me not to pay for saves so they can snatch up all the great ones...) Well, joke's on them because I got an elite closer five or six rounds later than they did. In the past five years, Putz has either been a lights out, shut-'em-down reliever or a pretty bad one. But the one factor between The Tale of Two Putzes: health. During J.J.'s time on the Mets, he was obviously not healthy. Instead of waiting to watch him heal, New York decided to release Putz. Putz had an average FIP of 2.31 and an average ERA of 2.17 during his year on the South Side of Chicago and his third to last season and his penultimate season as a Mariner. However, in his one season as a Met and his last season in Seattle he had an average FIP of 3.99 and an average ERA of 4.55. Last year, when he finally got healthy again, Putz had a 10.83 K/9 along with a 4.33 K/BB ratio along with a 2.83 ERA and a 3.53 FIP. He's back. Jeffrey Gross proposes the theory that closers on bad teams will get more save opportunities and thus more saves because these teams will still win 60-plus games and most of them will be by three runs or fewer, thereby giving the closer boatloads of save chances. But I would think Rafael Soriano, Mariano Rivera, Neftali Feliz, Jonathan Papelbon and Octavio Dotel in 2010 (and guys like Mo and Papelbon for the past few years) would seem to disprove that theory. Guys like Heath Bell and Brian Wilson showed that they will get saves independent of how well their team does. I believe that the guys who will get saves are just the closers who will not have their jobs taken away. Trying to find these guys is easier said than done, but I believe Putz will be the Diamondbacks closer all year. Sure, he could have a freak injury and miss half the season, but so could any pitcher. Putz is back to his lights-out closer form and as Arizona showed us last year, there is NO pitcher breathing down Putz's neck itching to take his job. Pick No. 5 (149 overall): Francisco Rodriguez Preseason projection: 35 SV, 3.02 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 68 K, 60 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner If you recall my post from last week, you’ll remember that I was trying to take K-Rod in round 11, but I timed out and ended up with Vladimir Guerrero. Three more closers are off the board, so I decide to go now with K-Rod. Pretty much the same story as with Papelbon: an elite closer who ran into some trouble last year, but who is still a big game pitcher. I feel like something just got into the Mets’ water last year—they are a much better team than they showed, and I figure K-Rod gets a lot of save opportunities even with the weak starters. He has always been an emotional guy, and I figure he has something to prove. I said in an earlier post that for me, the real draft starts with Round 6, because of the predictability of the first five rounds. There is another sense in which the real, real draft starts in Round 13. If you graph the distribution of draft picks, Round 13 (for a 12-team league) is the round in which the ADP begins to flatten. If you scan the ADP on most fantasy sites, ignoring the players themselves, you’ll see 1.21, 2.21, 3.74, 4.03 or some pattern like that, with an approximate increment that is a relatively straight regression line. At Round 13, the ADPs begin bunching more. There’s a couple of reasons for that, but one is that you are now in an ability range where, for the most part, players are harder to differentiate. I think drafts (in 12 team leagues) are often won between rounds 13-18 for this very reason: It is the fantasy player who makes correct decisions in those rounds who ends up in position to win the league. (I’ve actually mapped this in a couple of leagues from last year.) Pick No. 6 (150 overall): Jose Tabata Preseason projection: .287 AVG, 7 HR, 37 SB, 83 R, 52 RBI, 612 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Tabata seems to be overlooked in most drafts, and as I’ve mentioned in previous selections, this felt like great value in a five-outfield league. Tabata is young and highly thought of, which is all well and good, but he also put up good numbers last season. With the draft going the way it was, I figured I’d be best off to load up on speedsters who would help my average, and Tabata does just that. Pick No. 7 (151 overall): Howie Kendrick Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 10 HR, 13 SB, 71 R, 73 RBI, 567 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times He’s starting to lock himself in as a double-digit home run and double-digit steal guy. He’s going to hit somewhere near .300. Bad news is that ceiling that was always rumored about might be falling. The chance to be a batting champion still remains. He was a must-grab for me. Pick No. 8 (152 overall) Madison Bumgarner Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.54 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 137 K, 188 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms As a 21-year-old he burst onto the scene with a 3.00 ERA, but had a 1.30 WHIP. He didn't strike out many major league batters, nor at the minor league level. This is what separates him from someone like Trevor Cahill, who, despite a low K/9 ratio in the majors, struck out more than a batter per inning in the minors. Bumgarner still has upside, but without a ton of strikeouts and the high WHIP, he doesn't seem like a safe bet in 2011. This late though, I’ll take a pitcher in a pitcher’s park who has very little pressure to perform well in 2011. Pick No. 9 (153 overall): Ricky Nolasco Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 164 K, 179 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Nolasco, ranked No. 23 on my top 100 starting pitcher rankings, needs some explanation. Most believe that at some point, certain pitchers are not under/over-performing their peripherals, just reflecting their true talent—that sabermetrics do not accurately measure all pitcher types. That surrounds my Matt Cain opinions and my love for Nolasco. In 2010, I predicted he would be as good as Jon Lester. I was clearly wrong, but there are still plenty of reasons to believe that if Nolasco’s health holds up, he will be a top tier pitcher in 2011. How unlucky was Nolaso's 4.51 ERA last year? Nolasco posted a .316 BABIP-against for the second straight season (career .301 mark, .296 xBABIP-against last season) and his past season peripherals (3.86 FIP, 3.55 xFIP, 4.06 tERA) universally indicate an expected ERA well below his 2009-2010 results. Even with all the BABIP-downfalls in 2010, Nolasco had a WHIP below 1.30. Plugging Nolasco’s 2010 numbers into the beta version of the xWHIP 2.1 Calculator, we find that Nolasco’s expected WHIP falls somewhere between 1.14 (using expected innings) and 1.18 (using actual innings pitched). In addition, his normalized batted ball output represents an expected 3.69 xFIP and 4.19 tERA—slightly higher than his non-regressed 2010 rates, but still solid all around. With Dan Uggla no longer “gobbling up” groundballs in the middle of the Marlins infield, perhaps Nolasco will find better luck in 2011. I’d say it is more likely enough to warrant drafting him as the 150th or so player off the board. I would surely bank on his risk-inherency over lesser known quantities with upside like Daniel Hudson or Madison Bumgarner, and I would certainly rather have Nolasco than a middling closer (K-Rod, John Axford). Pick No. 10 (154 overall): Huston Street Preseason projection: 4 W, 35 SV, 2.61 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 70 K, 69 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Injury history aside, Street's skills are undervalued, even with his scary fly-ball rate; closers can get away with that in dangerous ballparks. Ever since he adjusted his alignment on the rubber when he first came to the Rockies, he has been stellar with a 9.50 K/9 and 1.98 BB/9. Of course, that's when he pitches. His second-half bounce-back last year solidified his No. 1 closer-capable value—and he's my No. 2. The only threat to job security is his health. Pick No. 11 (155 overall): Daniel Hudson Preseason projection: 14 W, 3.85 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 183 K, 201 IP Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times Hudson has impressive minor league numbers and delivered when traded to the D-backs and called to the majors. I can see him having an elite season with his control and ability to miss bats. It wouldn't surprise me to see him as a top 15-20 pitcher heading into 2012. Pick No. 12 (156 overall): Jonathan Sanchez. Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 215 K, 204 IP Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys Grabbing two pitchers from the same rotation feels odd to me, but I couldn’t pass up on this young fireballer who is a near lock for another 200-strikeout campaign. Yes, he is due for a rise in ERA from the fantastic 3.07 he posted last year, as his FIP remains in the four-range due to a high 79.5 left on base percentage and BABIP in the low .250 range. I’ll take the 3.71 projection though, and with a freakish strikeout rate that’s remained consistently high throughout his major and minor league career, he makes for a fantastic fourth starter. Round 14Pick No. 1 (157 overall): Andrew Bailey. Preseason projection: 58 IP, 30 SV, 2.64 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 56 K Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys If you’ve been intently following my selections, which surely you have, you’ll notice that this is my first reliever. Clearly, saves are not something I value in drafts. In fact, I usually use them as trade bait and rely on the waiver wire for that category. With that in mind, Bailey makes for a fine top closing option for my needs. He has an ideal 3-1 K/BB rate, which includes striking out nearly a batter per inning and a sub-two ERA over 132.1 major league innings. All reports point to him being in perfect health for the beginning of spring training and ready for a great season closing for what should be a much-improved Oakland Athletics’ squad. Pick No. 2 (158 overall) Travis Snider Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 16 HR, 7 SB, 46 R, 48 RBI, 340 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times Snider was rushed a little to the majors two years ago as a 21-year-old and hasn't quite put it together at the majors. A now 23-year-old Snider appears primed to break out and join the Blue Jays' power display. Oliver loves Snider, projecting him for 30 bombs. He struggles to make contact and whiffs like me in Wii Baseball, but I hope he keeps the Ks under control and lives up to his lofty potential. Pick No. 3 (159 overall): Denard Span Preseason projection: .294, 5 HR, 24 SB, 85 R, 58 RBI, 590 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL The Spanburger was a decent steals grab at this point. I'm not so thrilled about everything else, but a useful clip at least helped to push my shaky batting average upward a little. The Twins' leadoff batter should continue to add capable runs, too, just as long as his little dings don't add up. Pick No. 4 (160 overall): Drew Storen Preseason projection: 3 W, 32 SV, 3.84 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 67 K, 72 IP (Oliver) Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Those who know me know how little I value closers in fantasy baseball. I altogether punt the category in H2H formats and draft scraps in Roto. In Storen, however, I have high hopes, seeing an undervalued commodity opportunity. In my relief pitcher rankings, I have Storen ranked No. 10 overall. He is a talented pitcher with good stuff and the Nationals, being a team unlikely to compete this year, are likely to let him take his lumps as he learns the ropes of the big leagues. Consequently, I think Storen’s job is much safer than most people give him credit for. A glance at Storen’s walk rate by month (6.35, 3.86, 3.18, 2.92, 3.00) also indicates that his 3.46 BB/9 for last season is not indicative of his true ability. Storen should post strong K/9 numbers with solid ratios and 30 or more save. That I got him so late, after lesser and riskier pitchers like K-Rod were off the board, is ridiculous in my view. Accordingly, I broke my draft-closers-late rule. Pick No. 5 (161 overall): Chris Perez Preseason projection: 31 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 72 K, 64 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Perez was lights-out last year but didn’t receive many save opportunities in Cleveland. I believe he’ll become the next Joakim Soria, being a pitcher on a bad team who sports a good enough ERA and WHIP to be valuable. He will have 20-plus saves and could easily surpass 30 if the Indians play close games. Pick No. 6 (162 overall): Adam Jones Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 21 HR, 9 SB, 87 R, 77 RBI, 592 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times He’s got loads of skill, but the hopes of a 30/30 skill set have been successfully dashed. The possibilities of a decent average and solid runs and home run totals make the “other” Adam Jones a fun third outfielder for my team. Anything near where James has him projected would be nice for my fake team. Pick No. 7 (163 overall): Brandon Morrow Preseason projection: 162 IP, 9 W, 3.78 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 173 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Morrow and I have a strange love-hate relationship. I did not enjoy him when he was with my hometown Mariners, but I plan on drafting him quite often in 2011. Morrow’s ERA was really inflated last year—he was absolutely remarkable from June to August. I’m pretty excited to see if he can sustain his success over a full season, and I’m willing to take a bit of a chance and put him on my roster because of the possible reward involved here. Pick No. 8 (164 overall): John Axford Preseason projection: 33 SV, 3.23 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 74 K, 63 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner Now, finally, closers are starting to come off the board. Other players who are being picked are further down on my list, and there are still plenty of good starting pitchers and position players out there. Axford remains—remember, I’d considered him as early as Round 8, and here he still is. I take a quick look at the projections tab on the MDC app, and realize that one more closer will put me in good stead for saves. Hearkening back to the strategy outlined in my winning article, Axford can also help me with WHIP and ERA: He is a terrific young pitcher who made the most of his shot last year, and is closing for an improved Brewers team. Pick No. 9 (165 overall) Coco Crisp Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 7 HR, 27 SB, 58 R, 40 RBI, 409 PA Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches Someone jokingly said in the draft, "With your next pick, draft Coco Crisp". So I did. Do not take Coco Crisp in your drafts. But I will say one quick thing: The Oakland Athletics are not the same Oakland A's you read about in Moneyball (although maybe they should be the way the team has been winning games the past four years). These players do run—Crisp swiped 32 bags last year and Rajai Davis has stolen 91 in the past two years. If you really want a speedster in the last round or a waiver wire pick up, then Crisp is your man. But otherwise, don't draft him. Pick No. 10 (166 overall) Ian Stewart Preseason projection: .260 AVG, 26 HR, 7 SB, 84 R, 86 RBI, 595 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe I wasn't too enthused to be picking from the scraps to fill the hot corner and took the next best third base option with some semblance of upside, Ian Stewart. The numbers for Stewart last year were a bit disappointing: He played some 25 fewer games than the year prior. The silver linings to Stewart's 2010 season were his increase in batting average to nearly a .260 clip, thanks to a vastly improved line drive rate, and a continued decline in his strikeout rate. The Bill James projection seems slightly optimistic, but at age 25, Stewart is a reasonable proposition to post 20 home runs and a .260 average, with a chance to better that to a line closer to the James projection. Pick No. 11 (167 overall) Joel Hanrahan Preseason projection: 24 SV, 4.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 73 K, 71 IP Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times The closer I wanted to take here was Axford, but he went a few picks before me, so I had to move on to “plan B,” which was Hanrahan. I got some ridicule for the pick, most of which pointed to how bad the Pirates are as a team, but it's important to remember that even bad teams provide save opportunities. Also, being that the Pirates are likely to have to scrape out most of their wins, it's likely that the games they win will provide save chances. Those drafting Hanrahan are most likely concerned about the possibility of Evan Meek either vulturing save chances or claiming the closer role all by his lonesome. I am not as concerned; Hanrahan's great strikeout rate last year (12.92 K/9) has me believing he should be the clear favorite. His fastball/slider combo should play nicely at the end of games; his slider was a wipeout pitch last year, posting a 15.0 run value according to FanGraphs data. Toss in consecutive seasons with a K/9 above 10.0 and swinging strike rates above 13 percent, and it looks like the high strikeout totals of last season weren't an aberration. Pick No. 12 (168 overall): Joe Nathan Preseason projection: 6 W, 34 SV, 1.99 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 82 K, 68 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times After a brief run of relievers coming off the board, I figured Nathan would be a steal at this point in the draft. According to the Twins front office, Nathan has been throwing quite a bit over the offseason and no setbacks have been reported. Adjusting for age, I am expecting 35-plus saves. Even with a few notches off his strikeout rate he should still be among the top 10 relievers next season. Round 15Pick No. 1 (169 overall): Dustin Ackley Preseason projection: .239 AVG, 3 HR, 5 SB, 29 R, 19 RBI, 255 PA Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times I’ll admit that when last season ended I was pretty down on Ackley based on what I heard from a lot of prospect mavens, but then I saw enough of his Arizona Fall League games, and it all changed. I know he isn’t guaranteed a spot, but I am gambling on Ackley performing well enough before the season begins to land a starting gig. If things go right, it wouldn’t be too unbelievable to expect a .280 batting average with 10-15 stolen bases; although he will be a bit streaky it may be best to use Ackley as a trade piece early in the season (preferably during a week where he is hitting .350 and teasing us with a boatload of doubles). Pick No. 2 (170 overall): Craig Kimbrel Preseason projection: 25 SV, 2.57 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 100 K, 63 IP Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Notice a theme with the first two closers I selected? No, not that they could be in a committee (though that is a possibility for each), but that they are both strikeout monsters! More so than Hanrahan, Kimbrel racked up an impressive rate of strike threes last year, punching out 17.42 K/9. No, that's not a typo: He struck out almost two batters per inning pitched. Sure, the sample was small at the major league level, just 20.2 innings, but, he posted 13.42 K/9 in Triple-A in 55.2 innings. The potential for 100-plus strikeouts from a reliever makes up for the possibility of sacrificing saves by not selecting a better-entrenched closer. Pick No. 3 (171 overall): Jonathan Broxton Preseason projection: 33 SV, 2.70 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 77 K, 60 IP Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe One of the intriguing questions I had going in was how far Broxton was going to fall in the draft. Inevitably, his stock was going down by some distance, given a very poor second half and his eventual unseating as the Dodgers' closer. That said, Broxton is worth the 15th round discount of a gamble. Much has been made about Broxton losing a couple of miles per house off his fastball, but that's no reason to be so overly concerned as to take less-than-sure things such as Craig Kimbrel and Joe Nathan ahead of him. Broxton's command was off, leading him to throw too many pitches per batter, and it didn't help that manager Joe Torre trotted him out in a few non-save situations beforfe Broxton lost the closing job. Also, keep in mind that Broxton still averaged 95 mph on the gun when throwing the heater, a similar speed to his terrific 2007 season. It's difficult to pick out the cause of Broxton's struggles in 2010 (fatigue, injury, mechanics?), but if his fastball is back up to speed, he's certainly a more than decent bet to regain his usual form. Pick No. 4 (172 overall) Ricky Romero Preseason projection: 14 W, 4.31 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 176 K, 213 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches Romero strikes out an average number (7.3 to 7.6 K/9) which would have been all right if he didn't walk close to four every nine innings. A Minnesota Twins pitcher can get away with a 7.5 K/9 because they don't allow walks. But something about a guy who barely has a 2.0 K/BB ratio doesn't sit right with me. Walks already hurt a pitcher's WHIP, and if that pitcher doesn't have the strikeout potential to make sure his walked guys don't score runs, well, then there goes the ERA as well. Someone in your league probably thinks Romero will turn a corner and be awesome. Don't be that guy. Pick No. 5 (173 overall): Brad Lidge Preseason projection: 34 SV, 3.45 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 72 K, 63 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner It’s a mock, right? Somehow the guys in this league aren’t valuing saves. Lidge is a Jekyll/Hyde pitcher, but he was fabulous for the latter part of the year last year, posting a 0.73 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in his final 26 appearances. Even when he stank, he never really left the mix for saves. He's going to get plenty of save opportunities with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels as the first four starters in Philly. I figure if I grab Lidge, the best that will happen is that I will dominate the saves category and get decent peripherals; the worst is that I’ll end up just dominating the saves category. If Lidge goes south, I can always bench him and I’ll still have plenty of saves. There are still good position players out there, and I am hoping I can set off one last panic (maybe), one last run of closers that will drop a good position player to me. Pick No. 6 (174 overall): Michael Cuddyer Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 16 HR, 5 SB, 73 R, 70 RBI, 521 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs What can I say? I needed a third baseman (even though he doesn’t qualify as such on MDC). It appears that Cuddy was hurt by Target Field, or is possibly just undergoing some serious regression. Cuddyer may not be spectacular, but he’s a solid player who isn’t going to hurt you if he plays every day. Pick No. 7 (175 overall): Alfonso Soriano Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 24 HR, 9 SB, 68 R, 66 RBI, 521 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Soriano was my least favorite pick up to this point. I was starting to feel that I was losing some of the power categories so I reached for Soriano. With that said, he can still hit, and I refuse to accept the previous two seasons as the new Soriano. He’s a solid fourth outfielder. I just don’t know if I would take him if I did the draft over again. Pick No. 8 (176 overall): Tim Hudson Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 137 K, 226 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms He missed all of 2009 and came back Chris Carpenter-style in 2010. A 2.83 ERA and 1.15 WHIP were spectacular and the 140 strikeouts were a bonus considering the former numbers. We're not sure he could sustain such low ERA and WHIP totals in 2011. The low strikeouts are probably more fact than fiction and a 3.50 ERA with 140 strikeouts aren't as enticing as the 2.83 ERA. He was drafted in the 15th round last year after having missed an entire season. This year, after pitching 200 innings of sub 3.00 ERA, he still goes in the 15th round. Pick No. 9 (177 overall): Matt Thornton Preseason projection: 4 W, 2 SV, 2.95 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 68 K, 61 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Not that I needed the strikeouts (my pitching staff thus far consists of Josh Johnson, Dan Haren, Max Scherzer, Colby Lewis, Ricky Nolasco and Drew Storen), but Thornton is another strong pitcher who I felt was being undervalued in the draft. Even if Thornton were not a closer, his numbers pitching out of relief would warrant high draft consideration. At 35, his fastball averages more than 95 mph. He struck out more than 10 batters per nine each of the past three seasons (career high 12.02 K/9 mark in 2010), kept the walks under control (posting a BB/9 under 3.00), and limited the number of runners on base (WHIP under 1.10 in each of the past three seasons). Thornton has also kept the ball in the yard, allowing a total of only 13 home runs over the past three seasons (200.1 innings, 0.58 HR/9). Having the closer job is just gravy; expect as many saves as Bobby Jenks accrued, on average, from 2006-2009. Pick No. 10 (178 overall): Jason Bay Preseason projection: .267 AVG, 21 HR, 10 SB, 75 R, 78 RBI, 534 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Just a guess: He'll hit more than six homers (his 2010 total). No symptoms of post-concussion iffiness, but a run-producing bargain in a cavernous position. Pick No. 11 (179 overall): Domonic Brown Preseason projection: .288 AVG, 26 HR, 28 SB, 84 R, 94 RBI, 596 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times If you close your eyes and then open them up in a couple of years, that gaudy projection for Brown might make sense. Right now, though, it looks like premature drooling. Rookies don't tend to enter the league and become Bobby Abreu near his prime. Dude doesn't even have a clear starting role at the moment. I'm not a big fan of the outfielders drafted around him (Jason Bay, Alfonso Soriano, Tyler Colvin) so maybe I just won't be drafting an outfielder at this point in a real draft. Pick No. 12 (180 overall): Tyler Colvin. Preseason projection: .259 AVG, 24 HR, 9 SB, 76 R, 75 RBI, 549 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys A bit of a homer pick (literally and figuratively), as I’m a Cubs fan and like Colvin’s power potential this late in the draft. His batting average is taxing, of course, and there is the risk that he won’t even be starting when the season begins. Kosuke Fukudome currently holds down right field and the acquisition of Carlos Pena eliminates any chance of Colvin taking over at first base, which was speculated at the end of last year. Still, we know the drill with Fukudome and so do the Chicago Cubs, so a decision to go with one of their top prospects over a post-April lame duck wouldn’t surprise me, or Bill James, apparently. Another year of development should bring improvement in batting average and 25-home run potential. A handful of stolen bases doesn’t hurt either. Round 16Pick No. 1 (181 overall): James Shields. Preseason projection: 11 W, 4.06 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 187 K, 204 IP Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys Shields is in for a major regression in a lot of luck categories, such as HR/FB ratio, BABIP, and left on base-percentage. All of this is exhibited in the full 1.46 run difference between his ERA and xFIP. With these corrections, we could see something closer to the 2007-08 Shields who posted ERA numbers in the range of 3.7. Add in a career-best strikeout rate of 8.28 per nine innings and you have a major bounce-back candidate who will be wonderful for my backend rotation. Pick No. 2 (182 overall): Alcides Escobar Preseason projection: .272 AVG, 5 HR, 20 SB, 69 R, 46 RBI, 529 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times Shortstops this year are an ugly bunch outside of Hanley Ramireznd Troy Tulowitzki. If you don't get one of them, Escobar doesn't seem like a bad option. I don't know where his 46-steals-in-2009 speed went, but I'm willing to wager it returns somewhat this year. Escobar does make contact often and with a BABIP rebound, I see a .280/30 steal season within reach. I'll take that. Pick No. 3 (183 overall): Gio Gonzalez Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.99 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 212 K, 212 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL I missed out on Brett Anderson before. Why not grab a different talented Athletics youngster? His control is spotty, but Gonzalez's second-half improvements, groundball-iness and budding dominance are worth a shot here. He'll have a better year than Trevor Cahill, who went almost four rounds earlier in this draft. Pick No. 4 (184 overall): Angel Pagan Preseason projection: .289 AVG, 10 HR, 28 SB, 77 R, 58 RBI, 633 PA Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Pagan, like Matt Murton, was an outfielder I was sad to see the Cubs so eager to give up on, especially considering who replaced them (and their costs): Alfonso Soriano (eight years/$136 million) and Kosuke Fukudome (four years/$48 million). Last season, Pagan got his first shot at a full time job and he did not disappoint, stealing 37 bases and hitting 11 home runs in 151 games, while batting .290. Pagan does not walk a whole ton (career 7.2 percent rate), but he rarely strikes out (16.5 percent rate on the Mets, 1,009 plate appearances), drives the ball well (career 19.3 percent line drive rate), and has excellent foot speed (career 7.2 speed score, 6.9 mark last season). Pagan is what Asdrubal Cabrera or Mike Aviles would be if they played outfield and stole three times as many bases. He is not a flashy brand name, but he will provide strong value as a balanced commodity (four category player). I expect a repeat of last year, only with better run and RBI totals with both Beltran and Bay in the lineup every day. Pick No. 5 (185 overall): Jhoulys Chacin Preseason projection: 9 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 138 K, 151 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Bam. He struck out a batter per inning in his first season in the big leagues and while we gave him more than enough respect, the Rockies didn't. He's the second best pitcher on the team and the departure of Jeff Francis should open up a rotation spot for the 22-year-old. He finished with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP and sabermetrically should have been slightly better. The sky is the limit. Pick No. 6 (186 overall): Francisco Cordero Preseason projection: 38 SV, 3.33 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 75 K, 73 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Another pick I wasn’t too fond of. That makes two in a row if you’re keeping track. I grabbed Carlos Marmol earlier in the draft, but all the younger relief pitching prospects I had pegged were gone. Cordero was a best available pick. He’s still good for 40 saves, but his skills are deteriorating, and Aroldis Chapman the Great is waiting. I wanted the Aroldis handcuff, but I couldn’t pull it off. Pick No. 7 (187 overall): Ted Lilly Preseason projection: 212 IP, 12 W, 3.65 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 180 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs One of the advantages of drafting a staff full of strikeouts is getting to take a guy like Lilly late without feeling bad about it. Lilly isn’t a stud, but he’ll help lower your WHIP without killing you in the strikeout department. He’s homer prone, but in this case I think I’ll make an exception. Pick No. 8 (188 overall): Bobby Abreu Preseason projection: 278 AVG, 17 HR, 20 SB, 82 R, 88 RBI, 628 PA Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner Well, now I’ve had my fun with closers, and I need to turn my attention to thr outfield. I’m thinking about Jason Bay, but he gets picked up before it’s my turn. I begin focusing on Abreu, hoping he’ll fall to me. To my thinking, Abreu should have been taken a while ago. He is certainly getting up in years, and I’ll take the under on all his numbers except batting average, but he is still a solid, professional hitter who will be in the middle of a decent Angels lineup. He hit .255 last year after never hitting below .280 since becoming a regular. It’s certainly possible that Abreu has completely lost it, but that tends to happen more to power players than line drive contact guys like Abreu. I figure he’s worth a shot. Jason Kubel is still out there among others, and I can find a replacement-type outfielder if need be. I’m realizing that I’ve now got Vlad, Carlos Lee and Abreu on my team, three pretty old guys who are all injury risks—but, hey, they may enjoy each other’s company playing on my team. Pick No. 9 (189 overall): Fernando Rodney Preseason Projection: 18 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 67 K, 74 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches I am confident that Angels manager Mike Scioscia will name Rodney the closer at the beginning of the season and once that happens, you can be sure that Rodney will remain the closer for the rest of the year. I know the Angels traded away Brian Fuentes right before the trading deadline last year, but as a rule, I love Angels closers because Scioscia is so loyal to his bullpen guys. In 2009, Fuentes led the league with 48 saves (and with 55 saves chances). In 2008, K-Rod led the league with 62 saves (and 69 save opportunities). In 2007, K-Rod was fifth in the league in saves. Catch my drift? I understand Rodney isn't such a good pitcher, but you know what? Neither Punchy Rodriguez nor Fuentes was even close to the best bullpen guy on his team, but their manager was loyal to them and let them close. Now, the one caveat is to see who Scioscia does end up naming as his closer because it's not a lock that Rodney will be the guy. But for a mock draft done in mid-January, I'm happy with my closer pick. Pick No. 10 (190 overall): Johan Santana Preseason projection: 15 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 181 K, 195 IP (James' projections were made before it was known that Santana would be missing time to begin the season.) Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe I'll say mea culpa on this one, as it is my tendency to draft impulsively and this was the case in a number of earlier draft picks. I think Santana is a worthy 16th-round pick, as he remains an efficient pitcher who can work his way around giving up a good deal of flyballs. That is, of course, if he could actually pitch 170 innings. I didn't realize until after the draft that Santana might not be able to return until the second half of the season. D'oh. The offseason rust got the best of me here. Pick No. 11 (191 Overall) Jordan Zimmermann Preseason projection: 8 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 120 K, 132 IP Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times I'll keep my write-up on Jordan Zimmermann brief here, but for those interested in reading more of my thoughts on him, check out the fantasybaseballcafe for a recent article on Zimm. In short, there is a lot to like about him. He induces ground balls at a healthy clip, has struck out nearly a batter an inning in his major league time (not an easy feat for a starting pitcher), and he limits the free passes. While his innings will be monitored in 2011 because he missed most of 2010 recovering from Tommy John surgery, he was able to return to the mound last year and show off near pre-surgery radar gun readings and control. I'd be happy with 130-140 innings of Zimmermann pitching to his career xFIP of 3.57 and a WHIP in the 1.25-1.30 range with nearly a strikeout-per-inning. Keeping in mind that he'll likely be pitched on a regular schedule and shut down early, as opposed to having starts skipped so that he'll be available to pitch in a playoff chase (he is pitching for the Nationals, after all) you can add replacement level starter stats to those totals at the end of the year as well. (Then, of course, starting pitchers will be facing watered down expanded rosters in September). Pick No. 12 (192 overall): Ike Davis Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 78 R, 80 RBI, 598 PA Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times His final 30 games last season showed us that he has a lot of power and could develop into an attractive corner infielder option. I know Citi Field suppresses the number of fly balls going over its fence: Davis’ home-run-to-fly-ball ratio is much better on the road (10.7 percent at home vs. 13.3 percent on the road). As a slugger, Davis won’t hurt you in the batting average department and if he can spill over 25 home runs, I’ll be happy. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:00am Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 17-19On Sunday, Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011. They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder. We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and over four weeks, each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of these picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below. Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12 Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this). Round 17Pick No. 1 (193 overall): Derek Holland Preseason projection: 5 W, 4.08 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 73 K, 86 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times This is a slightly ridiculous pick, plain and simple (and, yes, I did sneak in the word "slightly." Remember rule No. 3 in Fantasy Sports Competition: Never admit defeat during an auction/draft). You know what… I blame three things: (1) the wine I was consuming before round one and talked about earlier in my mock draft analysis. For those of you scoffing, just know that alcohol consumption is one of the great mainstays and equalizers in any live draft. (2) The pre-ranking provided by Mock Draft Central. For some reason, Holland was ranked very high and since this was the first time I used MDC, I found myself relying a bit too much on its rankings. (3) I do see a lot of promise in Holland, despite some knee and shoulder issues last season. His command has been improving and coupled with his ability to miss bats, special things could be in store. Also, word is that he has been working on change-up this offseason. Oh well, I’ll either look like an idiot or a lucky fool if this hits. On second thought, I probably should have grabbed Chris Sale since Holland will, most likely, be sitting on the waiver wire in most leagues. Pick No. 2 (194 overall): David Ortiz Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 33 HR, 0 SB, 91 R, 112 RBI, 655 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Remember June 2009? That would be the time that everyone in the fantasy baseball world, namely David Ortiz owners, were going all Chicken Little claiming the sky was falling and Ortiz was done, never to be heard from again. While there was reason for concern at the time, to say that was a slight overreaction would be a gross understatement. While he's not posting the gargantuan numbers he did from 2004-2007, Ortiz was able to slug 32 home runs last season and pile up 102 RBI, all with a tolerable .270 AVG. With the additions the Red Sox made in the offseason, and the return to health of prominent players, it's safe to say their lineup is loaded from top to bottom. That means Ortiz should have opportunities to both drive in and score runs regardless of his place in the batting order. Those able to make daily changes can really properly use Ortiz by taking advantage of his gigantic split difference and starting him only against right-handed pitchers, against whom his slash was .297/.416/.643—he he slugged 30 home runs in 403 plate appearances against righties. Looking back on the draft, I feel Big Papi was my best value pick. Pick No. 3 (195 overall): Andres Torres Preseason projection: .271 AVG, 14 HR, 25 SB, 84 R, 53 RBI, 575 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe I came to the conclusion that, aside from Matt Kemp and B.J. Upton, my team was lacking in speed. I wasn't too enthused about this pick, but the projection seems realistic if Torres can stay healthy. That said, the persistent scrolling issues I had with MDC's user interface played some part in fooling me that the likes of Rajai Davis was on the board; Davis would have been the better pick for a boatload of stolen bases. Pick No. 4 (196 overall) Brandon Lyon Preseason projection: 23 SV, 3.55 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 52 K, 76 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches I love to have at least three closers on my team- no matter if I'm doing roto or head-to-head. I've seen guys in H2H blow off saves and it's worked wonders in their favor, but the problem with any scrapping strategy is that you better be darn sure that you're awesome at the categories that you try to win. So I try to win every single category, even saves. Admittedly saves are by far the most fungible fantasy statistic and the one most easily attainable in free agency. Because of this, fantasy owners tend to blow them off, but on the flip side, it's because of this that you can easily do well in that category. To make a long story long, I drafted Lyon because (1) all I care about is that he gets saves, (2) I think he will be the closer all year and (3) I needed a third closer and he was the most stable for saves opportunities. Pick No. 5 (197 overall): C.J. Wilson Preseason projection: 14W, 3.71 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 164 K, 192 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner I still need a few starting pitchers, and as usual at this stage there are plenty out there to choose from. I had Wilson in a couple of leagues last year, and I really enjoyed watching him pitch. He is generally regarded as having among the best stuff in the game. At 30, his arm is mature, but doesn’t have a lot of wear-and-tear on it because of all the years he spent as a reliever. I figure that he has upside because of his stuff, and because he is still really learning to be a starter. I think he’ll end up on the favorable side of every projection, especially the ERA projection—I have him at 16 wins, 3.50 ERA and 1.25 WHIP, the big difference being my theory that the lesson of last year was to trust his stuff a little more and nibble a little less. Pick No. 6 (198 overall): Derrek Lee Preseason projection: .278 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 84 RBI, 614 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Because I absolutely needed a little more power from my corner infielder, I decided to go with what I would consider to be a safe bet. Lee may be getting older, but playing in Baltimore should be a nice treat for the first baseman and his fantasy owners. He’s not the stud he once was, but he still has something to offer. Pick No. 7 (199 overall): John Danks Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 173 K, 216 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Danks marks my second White Sox pitcher. That’s not something I usually like doing. Grabbing multiple pitchers from a ballpark that favors hitters doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense, but I like Edwin Jackson to grow and even break out in 2011. Danks is proving be quite the consistent player. With the front-end talent I have with this staff, a consistent pitcher is all I need with this pick. Pick No. 8 (200 overall): Brett Myers Preseason projection: 10 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 183 K, 215 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms A career bust, Myers had managed only 70 innings pitched IP in two of his previous three seasons as a Philly. One was as a closer, but it wasn't like he was dominant. His 3.15 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last year caught us all off guard. Since he was "supposed to" do this years ago, his 2011 rank reflects our opinion that he can sustain this kind of success now that he's "figured it all out." Cliff Lee took a similar path to stardom. We aren't calling Myers the next Cliff Lee; rather, we're comparing the lack of surprise at their respective late-blooming success. Myers struck out 180 batters and made 33 starts over 223 innings. If he can repeat, he'll be worth the price tag he'll require in 2011. We think he can do it. Last year, he became just the fifth pitcher since 1920 to last six or more innings in 32 consecutive starts. Pick No. 9 (201 overall): Manny Ramirez Preseason projection: .290 AVG, 23 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 84 RBI, 532 PA Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Like the Rays, I got great value getting Manny in the 17th round. Even in an down season last year, he managed to hit .298 with nine home runs in half a season. Now that he's a DH, there should little excuse for him not playing daily. and if his downside is a 20 home run season, given Manny-being-Manny’s upside, that is a gamble worth taking. Everyone needs a utility player and Manny just might be a dirty-cheap Big Papi. I expect a batting average north of .290 with a belly full of RBI to go along with a 25-30 home run season. How often do you get good power from a late-draft pick without hurting your team batting average? Pick No. 10 (202 overall): Dexter Fowler Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 7 HR, 18 SB, 88 R, 46 RBI, 575 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Continuing Operation Fill My Outfield with Speedsters (guess I'm not one for brevity). Fowler stumbled out of the gate in 2010 but found his offensive footing later on, crossing the plate 55 times, hitting .280, posting a .357 on-base percentage and swiping seven bags dating from his from his June 29 return to the majors. He needed the Triple-A seasoning, and alterations of his left-handed swing lit a fire under him. The last skill is what I'm banking on for an expansion, as long as platoon splits don't haunt him again. His 30-plus swipes potential called my name. I answered. Pick No. 11 (203 overall): Sean Rodriguez Preseason projection: .262 AVG, 16 HR, 12 SB, 66 R, 57 RBI, 419 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times S-Rod was a nice late-round middle infield flier until Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez Pick No. 12 (204 overall): Ryan Ludwick. Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 23 HR, 1 SB, 70 R, 85 RBI, 553 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys This is a lazy pick, plain and simple. I’m shocked that James has him projected for such high numbers. His batting average fell badly as soon as he joined the Padres last August: He hit .211 with a .330 slugging percentage compared to .281 and .484 with the Cardinals. Depending on where he bats in the Padres order, he could put up those projected run and RBI totals, but I just don’t see how he could hit 23 home runs considering he has done that only once in his career, and that was in 2008 when he hit 37 on a fluke 20 percent HR/FB ratio. Since he's my fifth outfielder I guess I’m not awfully upset about it, but I would have rather gone with some young upside here instead of a mediocre 33-year old. Round 18Pick No.1 (205 overall): Philip Hughes. Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 166 K, 177 IP Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys Hughes had a much inflated win total last year due to the Yankees' offense, which will lead to him being overvalued in many drafts. Not here though, as the 18th round is a great place to grab the 24-year-old, who will have to be huge if the Yankees are to be respectable in their rotation. He had some trouble midseason with his curveball, which was awful against right-handers; if he can fix that he’ll get close to this projected 3.56 ERA. I also think he’ll pick up more than 12 wins due to that offense. I’m pretty excited to have the Yankees' second starter as my sixth pitcher. Pick No. 2 (206 overall): Hiroki Kuroda Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.39 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 144 K, 209 IP Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times Kuroda is a pitcher I don't fully understand; to do so, I would have to be a huge Dodgers fan and watch all the team's games. That said, I can't argue with his results. Don't be afraid to be the one to scoop him up. Pick No. 3 (207 overall): Jorge de la Rosa Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.45 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 209 K, 161 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL I tapped the Rockies once again, this time for groundball skills and dominance. Mr. James doesn't see the hope here— probably blinded by DLR's homer allowance, his home park and his injury-shortened season. Luckily, I saw that in the second half, he sacrificed a little dominance for BB/9 gains—a potential solution in the long run. More early-count aggressiveness will help him put it together. He was overvalued last year; now, undervalued. Pick No. 4 (208 overall): Danny Espinosa Preseason projection: .255 AVG, 21 HR, 19 SB, 69 R, 60 RBI, 459 PA Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches When you get to late round draft picks, almost everyone left is a liability insome respect. You do not draft your “front end” types late, but the category fillers, trying to construct a balanced roster. In choosing what to draft for, I try to avoid batting average. BABIP luck tends to be the least predictable, so I value counting stats over empty batting average. Alas, I digress. While Carlos Pena is likely going to be a big batting average liability and while you do not want to roster too many of those (at least not without both Albert Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki on your roster), Espinosa was just too enticing to leave undrafted in light of my middle infielder need. From a counting stats perspective, Espinosa has a strong minor league record Over the 275 games he has played over the past three seasons across various minor league levels, Espinosa has hit 40 home runs and stolen 54 bases, while walking at a good clip (11 percent). His minor league batting average is not awful (.270), but given his strikeout tendencies, Espinosa is likely to be a batting average liability in the majors. His Major League Equivalent, per Oliver, last season was a .235 batting average with 28 home runs and 21 stolen bases. Oliver forecasts a 19 home run, 15 stolen base output this season (599 PA) to go along with a .245 batting average. Espinosa is likely a 15/15 lock with 20+/20+ upside. I view him akin to drafting a balanced Adam Dunn with shortstop eligibility. If you want batting average, which is volatile, go with Mike Aviles. If you want the counting stats, which are more a byproduct of playing time, Espinosa should be your man. How he fell to me so late is beyond explanation. Pick No. 5 (209 overall): Homer Bailey Preseason projection: 7 W, 4.50 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 119 K, 142 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. That phrase goes out the window for the boy who cried wolf. It took him a long time, but he's arrived. Aaron Harang is no longer a member of the Reds rotation and Bailey should replace him. The ignorant will see a final line of a 4.45 ERA and a 1.36 WHIP. The keen eye noticed a 9.00 K/9 ratio and a 3.55 ERA over his final 10 starts of the year, which totaled 60 innings. Bailey has the pedigree to support this kind of success and while many have soured on him, we suggest you give him one more chance. Pick No. 6 (210 overall): Ian Kennedy Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.66 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 176 K, 194 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times I like Ian Kennedy, but I don’t know how good the D-backs will be in 2011, and that will factor into his success. There will be days when Kennedy will need a decent amount of run support, but his peripherals point to a solid fantasy starter one day. We all love his pitching mate Dan Hudson, but Kennedy could even outperform Hudson in 2011. Pick No. 7 (211 overall): Rajai Davis Preseason projection: .287 AVG, 4 HR, 39 SB, 57 R, 37 RBI, 430 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs I’ll reiterate the thoughts that I’ve echoed throughout my comments: I decided to bulk up on speed due to the lack of available power. Thus, Rajai Davis. Pick No. 8 (212 overall): Jorge Posada. Preseason projection: 267 AVG, 18 HR, 2 SB, 69 R, 76 RBI, 502 PA Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner I generally draft catchers late. As good as Joe Mauer, Victor Martinez and Brian McCann may be, they are not going to have the plate appearances that other position players are. Put another way, a .300 average from a catcher contributes much less to your overall stats than a .300 average from anyone else. So I usually “settle” for a Carlos Ruiz type catcher rather than a McCann. Maybe it’s wrong, but it’s what I do. Round 18 seems late enough to take a catcher. I notice that most of the other teams have drafted their, so I could probably wait a few more rounds, but I’ve gotten killed in leagues a few times when someone decided to take a backup catcher early and I got left with Rod Barajas or something. I notice that Posada is still available. On the one hand, he is another old guy—he’ll be right at home with Vladimir Guerrero, Carlos Lee and Bobby Abreu. On the other hand, he still has pop for a catcher, even at the age of almost 40. I understand the Yankees are going to DH him this year, which should save a bunch of wear and tear. There are still a bunch of catchers out there, and if Posada doesn’t work out I can probably get a decent catcher off the waiver wire at some point. So I take Posada hoping that I’ll get a few homers out of him, and that his body holds up one more year. Pick No. 9 (213 overall) Logan Morrison Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 9 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 65 RBI, 588 PA Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches At this point, I looked at my team and realized I needed an outfielder. I purposely drafted two elite outfielders in Alex Rios and Jason Heyward and when drafting for middle infielder depth I drafted Ben Zobrist, who also has outfielder eligibility. I technically have Coco Crisp as a fourth outfielder, but not really. So I needed to get more. Because I had not done any research by mid-January and I didn't want to give away my few outfield sleepers, I went to Jeffrey Gross's top 60 outfielders and drafted the highest guy on his list. I never have any problems finding outfielders in free agency. Pick No. 10 (214 overall) Javier Vazquez Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.73 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 183 K, 198 IP Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe To make amends for the Johan Santana pick, I was pleased to have landed Vazquez as my No. 4 starter (not counting Santana). Now that Vazquez is back in the National League, he'll be one of my main pitching targets late. The loss of nearly 3 mph off his fastball is a turnoff, but I think a late-round throw of the dice isn't too bad a price to see if an offseason of rest will lead to a rebound in velocity and a subsequent rebound in performance. Vazquez has historically posted fine peripherals and it seems last season was a one-off. While I wouldn't expect the 35-year-old Vazquez to revert to anything close to his career-best 2009 campaign, I would have him down for a 3.80-4.00 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 180 K, with a chance of lowering that ERA a bit (3.50-3.60). Pick No. 11 (215 overall) Eric Young Jr. Preseason projection: .259 AVG, 3 HR, 46 SB, 69 R, 25 RBI, 482 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Considering Colorado's log jam for playing time at third base and second base that features Jose Lopez, Ty Wigginton, Ian Stewart and Young,. I'm not thrilled with this pick. That said, there was little available in terms of middle infield help at this juncture, and I wanted someone with upside. Boy, does Young possess that. He had an off year plagued by injury in 2010, but is just one year removed from stealing 58 bases and posting a .387 OBP in Triple-A. While it would be foolish to just throw out his 2010 as if it didn't happen, it would be even more foolish to look past his previous 50-plus stolen base potential that was on display in the high minors before last year. If he's able to accumulate over 500 plate appearances, I'd be thrilled with this pick. If not, he's cast aside for a middle infielder out of the free agent pool (who not coincidentally is likely to perform about as well as any of the middle infielders I could have selected at this draft slot). Pick No. 12 (216 overall): Ervin Santana Preseason projection: 11 W, 4.14 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 169 K, 211 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times After second-guessing myself on the previous pick, I felt I needed to hedge my bet and go after a solid starter. He isn’t an extreme fly ball pitcher, although his stats tend to suggest otherwise. I do like the trends he has been showing command-wise and if he can get a few more decimal points added to strikeouts-per-nine, he should be solid. Santana tends to be a two-pitch pitcher, relying mostly on his four-seam fastball and slider. This exposes him to a few fly balls finding their way over the fence as well as limiting his effectiveness against left-handed batters. It’s not ideal, but at this stage of the draft I'll take anyone who can deliver close to 180 strikeouts and whose range in wins is anywhere from 11 to 18 with a decent ERA. Round 19Pick No. 1 (217 overall): Reid Brignac Preseason projection: .283 AVG, 23 HR, 3 SB, 78 R, 80 RBI, 598 PA Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times I would love to grab another arm, but the gap between this pick and the next is too wide. I was locked on what I needed position-wise, and I didn’t want to kick myself and watch someone grab a high upside middle infield pick like Brignac. This was also another hedge pick, since I didn’t want to be caught with a middle infielder starting the season in Triple-A (read: Dustin Ackley). Brignac’s batting average could be a bit grimacing but he should get the chance to start and his plus defense will give the organization enough reasons to be patient. He will have to be platooned against lefties and could be special if used in the right situations. Pick No. 2 (218 overall): Aroldis Chapman Preseason projection: 14 SV, 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 69 K, 60 IP (OLIVER) Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times With a number of pitchers vying for the No. 4 and 5 five spots in the Reds rotation, it appears Chapman will be helping the Reds this year by pumping up his triple-digit pitches in a relief role. While the Reds may have Chapman get some work in Triple-A as a starter, I believe that's unlikely, and that you'll see him ultimately wrestle the closer gig away from Francisco Cordero (or more likely Cordero cough the gig up all by his lonesome). Possessing a hellacious fastball/slider combination as well as the ability to induce a ton of groundballs (73.1 percent groundball rate in his 13.1 innings in the majors last year), he can be a dynamic reliever who's capable of helpful ratios and big strikeout numbers in the bullpen while he waits to pick up saves. Pick No. 3 (219 overall): Marco Scutaro Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 10 HR, 6 SB, 85 R, 60 RBI, 666 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe Needing a middle infield stopgap, I take Marco Scutaro off the scrap heap. Scutaro was a decent source for runs and average last year, although Jed Lowrie could wrestle some playing time away from him in 2011. This was my last pick before having to leave it on autopilot. Pick No. 4 (219 overall): Gavin Floyd Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.42 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 136 K, 179 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches For some reason James thinks that Floyd will have a career lows in 2011 in wins, ERA, Ks and WHIP. I do not understand why. Last year Floyd posted the best FIP of his career (3.46) and the second best xFIP (3.83—his best was in 2009 with 3.69). Floyd was one of my sleepers last year and because I am a White Sox fan, I watched him pitch all last season last year. He struggled out of the gate, and I'm sure essentially every Floyd owner but me had dropped him by June. That would have been a shame, because then you missed his 2.58 ERA in June and his 0.80 ERA in July. Sadly Floyd did regress in August, September, and October, but for two months Floyd was the best pitcher in baseball. Pick No. 5 (221 overall): Edinson Volquez Preseason projection: . 11 W, 4.13 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 152 K,145 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner I still need use another starting pitcher. There’s still a bunch of good ones out there—you really can always find a good one out there on waivers. So that being the case, why settle on a “safe” pitcher at this point—some guy who will go 14-11 with a K every two innings—when that guy will always be available on the waiver wire? Why not use a pick to try to WIN. I notice that no one has taken Volquez. That’s not surprising, given his past TJ surgery, and his suspension for PEDs. Who knows if his 2008 season was a fluke, or the result of PEDs, or what? But he has the potential on a good Reds team, assuming he is healthy, to get me a ton of strikeouts and wins. I kind of discount the projections because they incorporate 2009, when Volquez was hurt and needed the surgery; and 2010 when he was rushed back because the Reds were in the playoff race and wanted to go for broke. My guess is that Volquez is now fully healthy. Whether his velocity is where it once was, or whether he can find the plate after his debacle in the playoffs last year is anyone’s guess. But if astute picks in Rounds 13-18 are one way to win a fantasy league, gambles that have real potential in Rounds 19-25 are another way to win. Guys like Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, who are still available, are not going to win the league for me. Volquez, if he returns to form, might. Pick No. 6 (222 overall): Ryan Madson Preseason projection: 3 SV, 3.62 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 68 K, 77 IP Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Madson was an absolute beast last season, and I don’t believe Brad Lidge will be able to hang onto the ninth inning job for all of 2011. Even if he doesn’t get a shot at closing games, Madson should wind up providing enough strikeouts to make him a valuable reliever. Pick No. 7 (223 overall): Kevin Gregg Preseason projection: 28 SV, 3.57 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 54 K, 58 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times I hope I picked the right Oriole. At draft time, there was still doubt as to who will close, Koji Uehara or Gregg. Jeffrey Gross will tell you the job is unequivocally Uehara’s. I will debate that. Gregg has been paid a lot of money to be just a set-up man, and he has closing experience. Gregg has earned his shot in Baltimore. Pick No. 8 (224 overall): Mike Minor Preseason projection: 6 W, 4.94 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 140 K, 150 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Minor had an ERA close to 6.00, but struck out 43 batters in 40 innings. He also struck out 140 batters in 115 Triple-A innings in 2010. The Braves have a great organization to turn him around. He’ll have the fifth spot in the rotation and could be a nice surprise to round out your pitching staff. Pick No. 9 (225 overall): Koji Uehara Preseason projection: 4 W, 13 SV, 2.81 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 55 K, 64 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches The way I look at it, the closing gig is wide open and Uehara has the better shot of getting the job than Gregg and keeping it long term. Uehara is the better pitcher (better career ERA, WHIP, K/BB, BB/9) and proved quite capable in the closer role last season, blowing only two of his 15 save opportunities while posting a season ERA below 3.00 and a WHIP below 1.00. After last season, Uehara is not without his experience, though experience clearly favors Gregg. Manager Buck Showalter has not assigned anyone the closer job and plans to give it to the “better man” come spring training’s close. As I see it, Gregg was enticed by the prospect of both a two-year deal and a strong chance at closing if Uehara could not stay healthy. Uehara signed a one-year deal with a vesting second year that becomes guaranteed based on both health and performance. Essentially, this puts Uehara in a “it’s your job to lose” position, with Gregg hoping for the worst and the Orioles having a strong backup plan if Uehara’s health falters. Mike Gonzalez still looms, and, if healthy, he too would probably make the better ninth inning option in a competition with Gregg. . Pick No. 10 (226 overall): Ryan Franklin Preseason projection: 4 W, 28 SV, 3.95 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 42 K, 57 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Feel the excitement! Franklin's skills are trying to take the job from him even if Tony La Russa isn't. Saves were running thin, and at this point, I guess getting someone who has a job counts for something, but I probably could've speculated instead since I already had Joakim Soria and Huston Street. Jason Motte is near the top of my imaginary free-agent target list. Pick No. 11 (227 overall) Tsuyoshi Nishioka Preseason projection: .299 AVG, 7 HR, 31 SB, 66 R, 56 RBI, 623 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times James doesn't offer projections of international players, so I was gracious enough to provide you with Oliver's projected line. If he puts up those numbers you're golden. But even if he doesn't, just be happy to own a guy with a clear shot at playing time, which is not a given with the other second baseman drafted around him. Pick No. 12 (228 overall): Adam LaRoche. Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 24 HR, 0 SB, 71 R, 86 RBI, 592 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys Another rather boring pick for me; it’s actually scary how similar the projections are for LaRoche and Ludwick. While he’s a rather average player overall, what I am getting with LaRoche is consistency: He’s hit a minimum of 20 home runs every year since 2005 and 25 each of the last three. I am also likely to get a minimum of 70 runs and 80 RBIs. His batting average and ISO are in decline, which is concerning, but perhaps he can rebound and put together something more respectable, in the .270 range. Overall, though, this a pick I would have rather spent on young upside. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:58am Valuing players with your E.Y.E.S.I have come to love the auction draft fantasy format. Tired of watching my targeted sleepers and studs go a few picks before my turn, sick of being entirely helpless and at the mercy of my fantasy provider's value rankings, I opted to work the free market in recent seasons. The glory of auction is that every owner has a chance at every player. The auction format and bidding market equalize the stress of not having a top five pick in your league's snake draft, precluding you from one of the upper echelon elite players. Auction is not without its own stresses, however. The free market operates efficiently only when its participants are informed. Like the seller of an album of baseball cards who does not understand the value of a 1963 Topps Pete Rose card, an uninformed bidder is substantially less likely to profit on the open market. Being informed requires more than knowing raw stats and having a player projection. Believing that Jay Bruce will hit .280 next season with 30 home runs, five to 10 stolen bases, and 85 runs and RBI is nice, but unless you know the league average player output, Bruce's projection is meaningless. Player valuation requires some appreciation of relative category weights and scarcity. To deal with this issue and weight player values, I have a methodology, which I explain below. I have also included a pricing guide applying this methodology to Oliver's 2011 preseason player projections as of Feb. 1. First, three points that will inevitably arise: My methodology, like any pricing guide, has an inherent limitation: the quality of the projection system. My methodology weights relative stat production, but if the projections are weak, then the pricing guide will inevitably be weak. For the purpose of this article, I used Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system from The Hardball Times to create a pricing guide. Oliver has proven to be a very reliable system, on par with ZiPS (not released in full yet) and CHONE (now defunct). You can access Oliver's statistical projections (and more) by subscribing to THT Forecasts. Second, for the purposes of simplification, I analyze all hitters as utility players. Some people like to adjust their numbers to account for position, but I'd rather just index the top 20 players by position after I have my Z-Score totals and know how much actual value, unbiased by position, each player is going to provide. Third, there are better and more accurate methodologies out there. One is readily available via THT Forecasts. Another system is one created by Tom Tango a few years back. I know that Zach Sanders (of Fangraphs) and some others are working on something very similar as well. What I present to you today is merely what I do on my own, which I hardly proclaim to be unique. I am certain that someone out there probably uses, and invented before me, this same methodology to value players. In honor of Steve Phillips, who values baseball players with his eyes and heart, I have dubbed this system of dollar valuation the Expected Year's Evaluation Statistic, or E.Y.E.S. for short. Step 1: Determining the size of the player poolDetermining the size of your expected active player pool (those players who will be on some player's team as either a starter or bench player) is essential because only a limited set of major league talent gets used in fantasy. This is true even of AL- and NL- only formats. Because not every player gets drafted, valuing players is a two-tiered process. First, you separate potential active roster talent from "the rest." Then, you evaluate the players in the pool. This will be explained in further detail below. Before we can determine a potential player pool, we must determine an approximate depth for the pool. Let the number of teams in your league equal X. Let the total number of drafted hitters per team equal Y, and the total number of drafted pitchers per team equal Z. For the purposes of this analysis, I am going to use a 12-team league with one of each active infield position player (C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B), one corner infielder (CI), one middle infielder (MI), five outfielders (OF), and one utility player (UTIL), for a total of 13 hitters per team. I am also going to use nine generic pitching slots. There is also the matter of the bench. I usually play in leagues with five bench spots, which will be spit three to two between hitters and pitchers. This gives us a grand total of 192 batters and 132 pitchers, for a total of 324 players. Of course, the player pool is quite subjective and often much deeper than a consensus 324 players. In step 2, I deal with this problem, but 192 hitters and 132 pitchers will be our starting point. Step 2: Calculating preliminary Z-ScoresA Z-Score sounds much more complex than it really is. Okay, maybe not, but Excel (or Open Office) makes Z-Score calculations easy. Simply put, a Z-Score measures how many standard deviations from the mean (either positively or negatively) a given statistic is. For our purposes, players with high Z-Scores will help you in a given statistical category. Players with a Z-Score of 0 will have a neutral effect. Players with Z-Scores below 0 will hurt you in a category. The greater (or lower) a Z-Score, the more of an impact, for better or worse, a given player will have for your fantasy team in a calculated category. To fill out a player pool, I first calculate the Z-Scores for every player for each of the hitting and pitching categories. For hitters, I use only a pool of players expected to accrue a minimum of 400 plate appearances. I am sure there are a few fantasy-valuable players out there who will come to the plate fewer than 400 times this season, but they are few, so I have ignored them for this demonstration. Per Oliver's 2011 projections, the pool of hitters who are expected to have 400-plus plate appearances is 436 players deep. Among these 436, the mean batting average is .265, the mean home run total is 14.0, the mean stolen base total is 8.1, the mean runs total is 62.6 and the mean RBI total is 61.0. The standard deviations for these respective categories are .019, 7.9, 7.8, 11.6 and 17.1. To calculate any given category's Z-Score for a player, you simply take the difference of that player's stat against the mean for that stat and divide it by the standard deviation. For instance, Albert Pujols is projected by Oliver to hit 43 home runs. To calculate Pujols' home run Z-Score (labeled Z-HR in my charts), we take the home run mean(14) and standard deviation (7.9) and use the following formula: (43-14)/7.9. If you plug that into your calculator, you will find that Pujols' Z-HR is 3.67. Now do this for every player for every statistic, and when you are done, sum up each player's cumulative Z-Score. Then repeat this process for pitchers, using wins, saves, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts. I also like to use K/9 for the purposes of evaluating pitchers. By now, you have probably wondered how I plan to value rate stats. A .300 hitter is not nearly as valuable as a .290 hitter if the .300 hitter is getting two-thirds the playing time of the .290 hitter. To deal with this problem, I determined the average at-bat total for all players expected to accrue 400 or more plate appearances (468.8) and I multiplied the batting average Z-Score by the player's actual at-bats total divided by the league average at-bats total. This adjusts the Z-Scores for batting average to reflect playing time. I do something similar with innings pitched for pitchers. Step 3: DistillationOnce we have a series of player Z-Score sums for batters and pitchers, we need to select the "cream of the crop" to represent the potential player pool. If you recall above, we determined that, at least for our example, our league would use 324 active players (192 batters and 132 pitchers). Accordingly, I begin by selecting the 192 batters and 132 pitchers with the highest Z-Score sums. These players should represent our best "all-around players" for drafting. This is not the end of step 3, however. Fantasy teams are dynamically comprised and owners often draft one or two category guys to fill holes and to stream. To account for this, I then rank the residual player pool by categorical Z-Score. I then pull out any player with a Z-Score of 1.0 or higher in any fantasy category. I also add any remaining players who I think are "interesting" to my player pool, even if their categorical Z-Score is less than 1.0, as $1 buys to keep an eye out for. Not even the best projection systems gets every player right, and this element of player selection requires personal judgment. For instance, Oliver is incredibly bearish on Aaron Hill, who I like for 2011. His Z-Score sum is not within the top 192 and he does not have a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in any single category. Nonetheless, I added him to my player pool. Doing this, I ended up with 235 hitters and 166 pitchers, for a grand total of 401 players. This seems reasonable. Step 4: Calculating primary Z-ScoresNow that we have our pool of 401 players, we need to recalculate our Z-Scores to reflect the draft pool talent. If you want remotely reliable numbers for draft day, it is pointless to value player X against undrafted players. These 401 player represent the best of the fantasy crop, and accordingly, the means and standard deviations in each category between them will change. Among the 235 hitters in our example sample, for instance, the mean batting average jumps up to .272 (from .265), the mean home run total jumps to 17.2 (from 14.0), the mean stolen base total jumps to 10.6 (from 8.1), the mean runs total changes to 70.4 (from 62.6), and the RBI total bumps up to 69.1 (from 61.0). The standard deviations also change to 0.018, 8.8, 9.3, and 18.0, respectively. The average expected at-bat total also rises from 468.8 to 497.2. Re-calculating and re-summing each player's Z-Score, we are left with the expected relative value weights of each player. Step 5: Calculating dollar valuesOnce we have relatively weighted Z-Score sums for each player, we now need to determine each player's dollar value. To calculate dollar values, we must determine the total amount of money in our fictional economy. Simply put, we need to determine how much money exists to be split among the players with positive Z-Scores (all players who are ultimately assigned Z-Scores below $1 will have their dollar values rounded up to $1). Using the standard $260/team budget, applied to our 12-team fictional league, we find an economy with $3,120 in it. In real life, you could barely buy a pimped-out MacBook pro with that money, but here you can buy CC Sabathia!. Alas, I digress. Take this $3,120 total and divide it by the total Z-Score sum across all hitters and pitchers. The Z-Score sum from which to divide the economy value by should not include any players with negative Z-Scores; ignore these players for the sake of Z-Score valuation. Doing this will give you a rough dollar value estimate per Z-Score. Take this dollar value and then apply it to each player's Z-Score to get your estimated dollar value for that player. Keep in mind that the minimum bid for any player is $1. Certain players in our draft pool, particularly the "one category" players (hitters or pitchers with a Z-Score of 1.0 or greater in only a single category), have Z-Scores below 1.0. Other players probably have Z-Scores that, when multiplied by our Z-Score dollar value, have Z-Scores under $1. Because these players will actually cost you at least $1, all players with dollar values under $1 are rounded to $1. And there you have it. That is how you can calculate dollar values (EYES) for auction on your own. Use your EYES (not your heart) on draft day! Empower yourself with information. Of course, you could also do none of this analysis, save yourself some time, and purchase a subscription to the substantially more accurate THT Forecasts, which has its own built-in pricing guide for Oliver. I guarantee you those numbers are much better than mine. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
