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Friday, February 25, 2011Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 20-22On Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011. They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder. We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of these picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below. Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12||Rounds 13-16||Rounds 17-19 Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this). Round 20Pick No. 1 (229 overall): Jaime Garcia. Preseason projection: 11 W, 3.86 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 148 K, 175 IP Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys One of the surprises of 2010, rookie Garcia posted an eye-opening 2.70 ERA over 163.1 innings before being shut down in mid-September due to an innings limit. An FIP at over 3.4 means a regression is coming, but of course it would be insane to expect another sub-3 ERA year for this St. Louis Cardinals pitcher. In the 20th round, I’m happy to be getting a young talent with room to improve in his strikeout rate. Pick No. 2 (230 overall): Jonny Venters Preseason projection: 7 SV, 4.14 ERA, 1.53 WHIP, 61 K, 74 IP Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times Even though Venters and Craig Kimbrel apparently will share closing duties in the beginning of the season, Kimbrel is being drafted earlier so far this preseason. The optimism surrounding Kimbrel is not unwarranted since he (1) is righthanded, giving him the closing edge over the left-handed Venters and( 2) strikes out a ton of batters, 17.4 per nine innings to be exact. Venters also strikes out his fair share, but did experience a huge jump in strikeout rate once being converted to a reliever, one that certainly was larger than you would expect. Kimbrel, meanwhile, has been a strikeout fiend his entire climb up the minor league ladder. So there's a reason Kimbrel is going five rounds before Venters, but both do have a piece of the closer's pie at the moment. Pick No. 3 (231 overall): Chris Iannetta Preseason projection: .253, 16 HR, 1 SB, 46 R, 55 RBI, 374 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL One of my favorite bounce-back candidates of the year, he has the job all to himself and still has enough plate skills to maybe add something to his power. Why not take a shot on a cheap backstop with a power pedigree who plays at Coors Field, especially in a one-catcher setup? If he tanks, it's an easy mistake to fix. Pick No. 4 (232 overall): Russell Martin Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 9 HR, 10 SB, 68 R, 56 RBI, 536 PA Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches As a big believer in the stud-or-dud theory of drafting catchers, I took my catcher quite late. I was targeting Jorge Posada, now a DH, but he was taken a few rounds earlier, so rather than reach for scraps, I just sat tight. Of the catchers remaining, I took Martin because his expected production is no worse than most not-top-10 catchers, while he offers a fading hope of speed/power upside. If he's healthy, I would peg Martin as a late-round Kurt Suzuki-type, capable of double-digit production in both home runs and stolen bases. Of course, health is a big "if" here. Martin, recovering from knee and hip surgeries, may start the season on the DL, though the most recent health reports seem positive. I peg Martin as a catcher sleeper for 2011. Pick No. 5 (233 overall): Will Venable Preseason projection: .249 AVG, 10 HR, 16 SB, 45 R, 40 RBI, 353 PA Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Venable is Drew Stubbs from a year ago. His 13 homers and 29 steals in limited time aren’t getting enough respect. I chose him over Austin Jackson because I believe Jackson was a bit lucky last year and Venable has more immediate upside. With another 150 at-bats playing full time for the Padres, 15 homers and 40 steals isn’t so far-fetched. With a 20th round pick, no harm, no foul. Pick No. 6 (234 overall): Chris Sale. Preseason projection: 2 W, 2 SV, 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 34 K, 37 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times There was no Bill James projection for Chris Sale. This was my first real gamble, but Sale’s talent was just too hard to pass up at this pick. Granted this draft was pre-Ozzie declaring his love for Sale in the bullpen. All reports are still indicating that Sale will be stretched out and should have every opportunity to prove his worth as a starter. If he falters, I may be regretting this pick, but then again, my pitching staff is full of strikeout pitchers. Sale could help lower my averages as a reliever. This is still a wait-and-see pick. I believe he is the best young lefthander in the game. Pick No. 7 (235 overall): Brian Fuentes Preseason projection: 49 IP, 32 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 51 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs If Fuentes somehow ends up closing for part of 2011, then this pick will make me look like a genius. Otherwise, it makes me look like an idiot who was trying to draft Luke Gregerson and clicked on another guy by mistake (true story). Have I mentioned I wasn’t a fan of MDC? Fuentes could at least help my WHIP thanks to Oakland’s spacious park and defensive skills, but he won’t be seeing many high-leverage innings in the strong Athletics bullpen. Pick No. 8 (236 overall): Austin Jackson Preseason Projection: 278 AVG, 6 HR, 28 SB, 88 R, 58 RBI, 691 PA Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner Assuming I want the flexibility to use Carlos Lee as a corner infielder, I still need another outfielder. A quick check on the draft projections to the moment shows that I am still lagging the field in stolen bases. Jackson is available. Here’s the thing about Jackson: He is only 23. Well, he’ll be 24 by the time the season starts, but the point is that he had an outstanding rookie campaign at a very young age. That tends to portend well—I remember reading a Bill James analysis once that showed that even a year or two age difference in the first year of solid numbers means a lot in terms of how good a player really is. Beyond that, most good players improve significantly as they gain league experience, and I think Jackson will be no exception. I predict Jackson works hard on plate discipline this year, which results in more walks, more runs scored, more stolen base attempts, etc. His .399 BABIP is probably high even for a speedster, so that comes down, but I think we see more balls in play from him overall, which balances things out. I’m taking the over on runs, and probably on steals as well; the Tigers lineup isn’t so ferocious at this point, and I’d see manager Jim Leyland running Jackson a lot to get him in scoring position for Magglio Ordonez and Miguel Cabrera. They have him for six homers—I don’t know if he’ll hit any, but that’s not why I drafted him. Just the same, I’ll bet all comers he hits at least eight. Pick No. 9 (236 overall): James Loney Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 12 HR, 8 SB, 68R, 85 RBI, 626 PA Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches My lineup was set, I had my core group of pitchers, and I had my three closers. Really all I needed was depth. For some reason I thought Loney hit .300 like clockwork, but he has a career .288 batting average and hasn't hit over .300 since his rookie season (in only 95 games). At this point in the draft you should just go for huge upside guys and your sleepers. Generally, the guys that I draft in these low positions are going to get dropped anyway, so why not swing for the fences (or make bad baseball puns)? Pick No. 10 (235 overall): Scott Baker Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 121 K, 152 IP Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe The auto-drafter gave me Scott Baker, the kind of pitcher I don't typically find myself drafting. One knows what to expect from Baker, a pitch-to-contact hurler who is stingy with walks at the expense of giving up a good many flyballs. As a No. 4-5 starter this late in the game, Baker is okay. In fact, he should rebound a tad, as that .323 BABIP should normalize and hence, the 1.34 WHIP from last year should come down some. The Bill James projection on Baker seems spot-on with my ERA expectations for him, but is a little pessimistic on innings thrown and wins earned, and I can see his WHIP decreasing a bit as well (1.25 WHIP). Pick No. 11 (239 overall): Alex GordonPreseason projection: .264 AVG, 19 HR, 9 SB, 80 R, 65 RBI, 564 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Consider me a continued sucker for Alex Gordon, though his draft cause was also helped by my need for a stop-gap third baseman until Kevin Youkilis gains eligibility there. Gordon is the type of player I love to target at the end of drafts, a guy who has dominated the minors and has a previous blue-chip prospect status. Most people by now have written him off as a Quad-A player: He ripped the ball in Triple-A last year (.315/.442/.577 with 14 homers, seven steals and 51 walks vs. 71 strikeouts in 260 at-bats) but struggled in the majors once again. This year he won't be jerked up and down and changing positions, as he's now strictly an outfielder, but he retains his third base eligibility thanks to his early season playing time there in 2010. He has a fairly substantial career platoon split, favoring hitting righties but being tied up by southpaws (career versus right-handed pitchers: .256/.343/.419 and versus left-handed pitchers: .215/.290/.370) , so his value even if he puts it together next year appears to be capped somewhat. In a five-outfielder format Gordon gets positional versatility bonus points if he's able to stick. Pick No. 12 (240 overall): Peter Bourjos Preseason projection: .260 AVG, 6 HR, 19 SB, 39 R, 26 RBI, 281 PA Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times Even though the Angels organization may be a bit skeptical, I must say I like Bourjos' speed. I understand the Angels can be fickle regarding some of their prospects, but he is still projected as the starter in center field. Bourjos has plenty of defense and speed and this should be enough to keep him in manager Mike Scioscia’s good graces during the spring. Don’t expect patience from Bourjos this season: His swing is designed for power over simple contact and a low batting average should be expected. Round 21Pick No. 1 (241 overall): Kyle Farnsworth Preseason projection: 4 W, 0 SV, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 64 K, 62 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times No bullpen has undergone a bigger facelift than the one in Tampa Bay's. At the time of our draft, Farnsworth looked to be the favorite as the team’s closer. He struggled during his time with the Yankees, but the improvements made to his command along with his ability to stay away from the middle part of the plate look promising. Recently, manager Joe Maddon has said he'll use a bullpen-by-committee approach in 2011, which will reduce Farnsworth’s value considerably. Pick No. 2 (242 overall): Magglio OrdonezPreseason projection: .306 AVG, 17 HR, 2 SB, 70 R, 82 RBI, 550 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Magglio Ordonez is your typical, “glue” guy. He's a solid investment late, a jack of all trades but master of none (though that average is fairly masterful). Last year saw Maggs show off some pop that was missing in 2009. In 2009 his homer-per-flyball rate was just 8.0 percent and he was pounding the ball into the ground at a 51 percent clip, but in 2010 he was able to boost his HR/FB rate up to 13.2 percent (13.5 percent career mark) and reduce his groundball percentage to 46.7. At this juncture, I was pleased to get a solid contributor as my fifth outfielder. While it's foolish to expect his ceiling to be that of his peak years, a line of 80-20-85 with a .310 average seems attainable, but if he's able to put up a line that matches James' projection, I'd be happy with that out of my fifth outfielder. Pick No. 3 (243 overall): Jason Kubel Preseason projection: .276 AVG, 23 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 90 RBI, 564 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores Fantasy Baseball Cafe As a bench bat to alternate with Andres Torres, Jason Kubel might not be a bad alternative to platoon against righthanders. Kubel's BABIP came down to earth last year and his power upside is tempered some by Target Field, but if he continues to get his share of playing time, Kubel might fare decently in his contract year. A rebound to the James projection seems to be his ceiling, which would make for a decent return on investment this late. Pick No. 4 (244 overall): Franklin Gutierrez Preseason projection: .261 AVG, 14 HR, 20 SB, 77 R, 63 RBI, 608 PA Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches Gutierrez does nothing well and everything all right. At this point in the draft, just go for your sleepers; Gutierrez seemed like the perfect value in the 21st round. Pick No. 5 (245 overall): Lance Berkman Preseason projection: .273 AVG, 20 HR, 4 SB, 80 R, 86 RBI, 547 PA Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner In my main league in 2010, Lance Berkman was taken near the beginning of the seventh round. As everyone knows, he had a horrible year. Not only that, he has hit progressively fewer home runs each year since 2006, and his batting average for the last two years was below any prior year since his rookie season in 1999. He was particularly pathetic in the second half of last year, with a slugging average in the mid .330s. All that said, picking up Berkman in the 21st round of a draft is like highway robbery. This is LANCE BERKMAN. Says here he can still hit. He got caught up in a woeful situation in Houston last year, tried to carry the team himself, and pressed. Then he got traded to a league he didn't know at all, and was placed in an unfamiliar role, in New York to boot, and didn't exactly remind anyone of Roy Hobbes… and people think that means he’s finished? Says here that Berkman, like Paul Konerko last year, will seriously rebound. If he platoons, it will only keep his stamina up and make his numbers better the days he is in there. He’ll be playing in a good St. Louis lineup where he won’t have to carry the team, and will be back in a familiar division (including getting to hit against the Astros' pitchers rather than the Cardinals'. I foresee Berkman in a quasi-platoon hitting .280 with 25 homers, 85 runs, and 95 RBI. While those aren’t earth-shattering numbers, presuming I have a slightly-above-replacement value hitter I can play when Berkman is not playing the combined stats I’ll get will look pretty good. This is another “win the league” type pick. It may not work out, but why bother taking David DeJesus or Nyger Morgan when you can roll the dice with LANCE BERKMAN. Pick No. 6 (246 oveall): Neil Walker Preseason projection: .270 AVG, 16 HR, 11 SB, 73 R, 83 RBI, 604 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Using the Bill James projections, Walker certainly didn’t deserve to go this late in the draft. Walker was even a better value here if you expect him to hit higher than .270, which I do. I didn’t need a starting second baseman, but Walker is a great middle infield candidate in most leagues, and I’d like to see what he can do in a full season of work. Pick No. 7 (247 overall): Edwin Jackson Preseason projection: 9 W, 4.54 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 152 K, 202 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times Jackson was my third Chi Sox pitcher. That’s two too many if this were my real draft. I believe he showed some life in Chicago. He was great in August (1.47 ERA), but he struggled in September/October. His early season troubles and his struggles throughout his career correlate to his lackluster control. In the final three months, he did show improvement: 77 strikeouts to just 18 walks. If he brings that control into 2011, he could be the steal of the draft at the 247th pick. He just needs to keep the ball in the park and not throw so many wild pitches (20 in 2010). Pick No. 8 (248 overall): <Luke Scott Preseason projection: .266 AVG, 27 HR, 2 SB, 70 R, 80 RBI, 555 PA Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms This, of course, was a pick made before the Orioles signed Vladimir Guerrero signing. Vlad shouldn’t cut into Scott’s playing time as much as that of Felix Pie and Nolan Reimold, but it still hurts Scott’s value unless he’s set to play every day. Scott has averaged 25 homers in about 450 at-bats over his past three seasons. There’s no reason to think that won’t occur again. It’s not easy finding power this late in the draft, but Scott is always there. Scott’s lineup has only improved in each of the past few seasons and should be better than ever in 2011, giving him more of an opportunity to add to his runs and RBI totals. Pick No. 9 (249 overall): Travis Wood Preseason projection: 9 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 126 K, 149 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches I really had no reason for another starting pitcher at this poin, but I am buying this offseason’s T-Wood hype. The former second round pick held his own well in his major league debut last season, pitching 102.2 solid innings (5 wins, 3.51 ERA, 1.08 WHIP 86:26 K/BB). Though Wood’s flyball tendencies might be worrisome in the Great American Ballpark, he has good enough control and induces enough infield flyballs (9.9 percent, compared to a 7-8 percent major league average) to offset that relative disadvantage. If Ted Lilly can consistently succeed in Wrigley, this 24-year-old can rank in my http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/fantasy/article/top-100-fantasy-starting-pitchers-for-2011/”>top 50 starting pitchers despite his home ballpark. Pick No. 10 (250 overall): Julio Borbon Preseason projection: .297AVG, 3 HR, 16 SB, 49 R, 30 RBI, 342 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL I needed some steals, and options were running thin. The Rangers want Borbon to take the center field job so Josh Hamilton doesn't have to. There's 40-steal upside here if he can finally take advantage of his strong contact rate and optimize his speed on groundball hits. He was worth a shot at my utility spot. Pick No. 11 (251 overall): Octavio Dotel Preseason projection: 0 SV, 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 84 K, 68 IP Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times This draft occurred before the Vernon Wells trade that spurred the Jays to flip Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco. Reports say Francisco has the inside track to the closing job, though this is one closing mess that I'd stay away from. In other words, this pick should not happen now. Pick No. 12 (252 overall): Omar Infante. Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 7 HR, 6 SB, 60 R, 49 RBI, 485 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys Infante enters the season in a new uniform, replacing Dan Uggla at second base for the Florida Marlins. While it’s a significant downgrade in power, Infante does provide a batting average in the range of .300 and figures to bat second in the Marlins lineup. He was considered a journeyman over his nine years in the majors before being named an All-Star in 2010 due to his “Swiss Army Knife”-type defensive abilities. His batting average has come a long way since his early years with the Detroit Tigers; along with his strikeout rate his average has progressively improved since 2007. At 30 years old, his career is far from over, and his multi-position eligibility makes him a perfect bench asset for a league with corner and middle infield spots. Round 22Pick No. 1 (253 overall): David Aardsma. Preseason projection: 49 IP, 28 SV, 3.49 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 48 K Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys This is the point in the draft where I suddenly thought, “crap, I need to roster two relief pitchers.” That’s how you end up drafting David Aardsma, who is coming off a lame year and, after offseason surgery, figures not to be back till the second week of the season. He’s not exactly a strong selection, but he’ll pick up saves and I hope he'll get his strikeout rate back into the one per inning range of 2009. That’s what I get for waiting too long for relief help. Pick No. 2 (254 overall): Rafael Soriano Preseason projection: 16 SV, 2.03 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 68 K, 62 IP Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times That 16 saves is the "Fans" projection for Soriano's saves total. What is going on here? What do people think the chances are Mariano Rivera gets hurt? Soriano is a great reliever, but he's not a guy I take hoping to get some sneaky saves. There are Bobby Parnell and Ryan Madson for that. Pick No. 3 (255 overall): Matt Capps Preseason projection: 4 W, 38 SV, 3.55 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 59 K, 73 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney, KFFL On the day of this draft, it wasn't reported that Joe Nathan's progress wasn't as far along as it is now. I figured I'd take a shot on another potential saves source. Even if Nathan gets the job back immediately, he still might have to take some days off. I wouldn't make this pick here on the day of its publication. Pick No. 4 (256 overall): Brandon League Preseason projection: 9 W, 2 SV, 3.92 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 60 K, 78 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches As someone who does not believe in paying for saves, I was pleasantly surprised to see Brandon League still trolling around the player pool past pick No. 250. With Aardsma out for the foreseeable future (he just stopped using crutches), the closer's job is League’s to lose. League has a track record between the Blue Jays and Mariners as a reliable relief pitcher (albeit, every other year) and his extreme groundball tendencies should play that much better in spacious, defense-filled Safeco Park. With a strong enough start, League could stave off Aardsma’s return to the ninth inning until, if at all, his numbers make him not worth owning at all. Pick No. 5 (257 overall): Frank Francisco Preseason projection: 2 W, 0 SV, 3.09 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 40 K, 35 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms This pick makes me look smart, for he’ll be closing in Toronto now. At the time, he was with Texas and I drafted him hoping that Neftali Feliz would slide into the rotation. Francisco will compete with the likes of Octavio Dotel, Jason Frasor and Jon Rauch. Each has closed at some point in his career. In round 22, double F isn’t a bad gamble. Pick No. 6 (258 overall): Hideki Matsui. Preseason projection: .268 AVG, 21 HR, 0 SB, 69 R, 85 RBI, 579 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett, The Hardball Times He’s an old timer in a pitchers’ park, but there really wasn’t a whole lot of upside talent this late. Hideki could hit .280 with 20+ homers or he could go .250 with 15 homers. Who knows what he has for us in Oakland? I’ll take the chance, but his leash will be shorter than it’s ever been in his career. Chris Carter could press Matsui. Pick No. 7 (259 overall): Luke Gregerson Preseason projection: 72 IP, 4 SV, 2.50 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders, Roto Hardball, FanGraphs I got lucky when I mistakenly took Fuentes a couple of rounds earlier, as Gregerson stayed on the draft board while I filled another position. Gregerson and a good number of high-K setup men are undervalued most of the time, but their overall contribution rivals that of middling (and better) closers. Gregerson’s filthy slider and home park make him a pretty safe bet later in drafts. Pick No. 8 (260 overall): Jair Jurjenns Preseason projection: 12 W, 3.92 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 132K,182 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner I believe that one winning strategy in a snake draft is using the last few rounds on educated fliers—picking guys who have the potential to look like top 10 drafts picks if things break right. If they break wrong, you haven’t lost much because you can always find a replacement-type player on the waiver wires and you are no worse off than you would be if you’d drafted that guy to start with. There are three types of “educated fliers”: (a) prospects who had a good last few months, or are well-hyped and projected as starters (e.g,, Freddie Freeman); (b) older players who had a bad year and everyone assumes are done (e.g., Carlos Lee—wait, didn’t I take him in the ninth round?); and (c) good or elite players coming back from injuries (e.g., Jake Peavy). This was my last pick before choosing bench players, and because I drafted a number of closers earlier, I need at least one more starting pitcher. Since I already have a number of players in the (b) category, I don’t want to draft an old player; and since gambling on an untested starter is pretty risky—even if they surprise, they’ll tire by year’s end, a la Jaime Garcia last year—I’m looking for an injury comeback type guy. I thought about Peavy, but took Jurrjens instead. Jurrjens is only 25, and he flat out knows how to pitch—not a big strikeout guy, and he tends to walk a lot of batters, but he has demonstrated an ability to win, and he is still learning. Sometimes you like guys because every time you see them play, they look good, and I’ve had that experience with Jurrjens. He obviously had a tough year last season, but it seems largely because he was playing through injuries, and—and this is important—the injuries were mostly to his legs, rather than his arm. (He did have some shoulder issues coming out of spring training last year, but that’s not unusual.) I see the Braves as a team that has upgraded its hitting and whose bullpen is solid (even given that Kimbrel is untested as a closer). That means there won’t be the need to leave Jurrjens in too long, especially early in the season as he regains his stamina. I see Jurrjens winning closer to 16 games than 13, and am taking the under on ERA and WHIP. I think getting Jurrjens in Round 22 is a terrific value pick. Pick No. 9 (261 overall): Jesus Montero Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 21 HR, 0 SB, 54 R, 67 RBI, 442 PA. Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game Of Inches I know that Montero is No. 3 on the Yankees' catcher depth chart, but Jorge Posada is going to miss significant playing time (if not the entire year) just because of his age and the position he played for the past 103 years and Russell Martin is really bad, so Montero is going to get his shot. Considering how great a prospect he is, it would not surprise me if Montero earns the starting catcher job by the All-Star break and keeps it for the rest of the year. Bill James projects Montero to get 442 plate appearances. If Montero can hit 20+ home runs during that time, then I'm elated with this pick. Pick No. 10 (262 overall): Alex Gonzalez Preseason projection: .250 AVG, 13 HR, 1 SB, 46 R, 53 RBI, 430 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe If only an auto-drafter bot came along that was as smart as Watson when it came to drafting fantasy players. I suppose it'll take some time for that to happen. Either Johnny Cueto or Brian Matusz would have been my pick here if I hadn't had to bolt early. Aside from early last year and his first couple of years in Florida, Gonzalez has been a fairly pedestrian fantasy threat. Expected to have a full-time gig again, Gonzalez should be good enough to hit 15 homer runs and a bump up in runs/RBI from the James projection, but otherwise, not quite the low-risk, decent-reward pick I'd typically take here. Pick No. 11 (263 overall): Joel Peralta Preseason projection: 0 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 58 K, 68 IP Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times An extreme flyball (55.6 percent rate) reliever who got by last year by limiting free passes (1.65 walks per nine) and striking out a healthy number of batters (9.00 K/9), Peralta essentially mimicked Rafael Soriano's recipe for success last year. Given that Peralta's record of success includes only last year, it's easy to see why Soriano was able to fetch more in free agency than Peralta, and why Peralta doesn't generate the same fantasy draft excitement as the man he may be replacing in ninth inning duty. Toss in that it's unclear who will be closing for the Rays (assuming it's a someone closing and not someones, which isn't a given either), and he isn't more than an end-game save speculative draft pick. If I had to make the pick over again, I'd probably select Jake McGee, given his filthy fastball/slider combination and higher ceiling. That said, taking both and hoping to rack up saves from each wouldn't be a bad strategy for drafters who prefer to pass on paying a premium for saves. While it's likely Kyle Farnsworth's name will be bandied about leading up to real drafts, I'll be passing on him altogether as he was a train wreck in high leverage situations last season. Pick No. 12 (264 overall): John Lackey Preseason projection: 13 W, 3.89 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 179 K, 227 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela, The Hardball Times At this stage in the draft, I was excited to find Lackey still available. Recent reports of his significant weight loss this spring should boost his value a bit, but his above-average command and ability to keep the ball (generally) in the park could translate into better fortune this season. Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:28am Breaking down the mock draft: Rounds 23-25On Jan. 16, 12 baseball analysts from around the web mock snake-drafted fantasy baseball team for 2011. They assumed 25-player rosters, using the standard 5x5 categories and a 1,500 innings-pitched limit. Using Mock Draft Central, teams were constructed with three starting pitchers, two relief pitchers, four "generic" pitchers (starter or reliever), three bench players, five outfielders and one of each of catcher, first baseman, second baseman, shortstop, third baseman, middle infielder and corner infielder. We have broken this draft into four parts—rounds 1-6, 7-12, 13-19 and 20-25—and each of the participants to the draft is providing insight into each of these picks. All preseason projections below are courtesy of the Bill James projections available on Fangraphs.com. Please post comments below. Other round analysis: Rounds 1-3 || Rounds 4-6||Rounds 7-9||Rounds 10-12||Rounds 13-16||Rounds 17-19 Those who wish to follow the rounds in which players were selected by their respective owners should check out Mock Draft Central (a free Mock Draft Central account will be required to view this). Before moving on to the analysis of the final rounds of the mock draft, I'd like to mention that, like Jeffrey Gross, I will be a "celebrity commissioner," for FanGraphs and Ottoneu's brand spankin' new fantasy baseball game. The league that I'm leading will be of the classic 5x5 roto scoring format. Those who wish to join my league may do so by searching for the private league, "THT Fantasy-Josh Shepardson." The top secret password to join is a doozy—it is: baseball. The cost of joining from now until March 1 is $9.99, first-come, first-served, so sign up now! Round 23Pick No. 1 (265 overall): John Buck Preseason projection: .248 AVG, 17 HR, 0 SB, 47 R, 60 RBI, 429 PA Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times This pick was made purely for roster depth. I’m banking on Geovany Soto as my starter but if anything would happen between now and Opening Day, I didn’t want to be caught without a catcher. It can be argued that Buck enjoyed a career season in 2010 not likely to be replicated (unless his high BABIP fortune continues) but with his power profile, I figured he’d make a good insurance ticket. Pick No. 2 (266 overall): Kila Ka'aihue Preseason projection: .254 AVG, 22 HR, 1 SB, 75 R, 76 RBI, 550 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Ka'aihue thoroughly proved that he can embarrass Triple-A pitching (.322/.465/.601 24 homers and an 88:69 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 416 plate appearances), and finally earned some major league playing time. In 206 major league plate appearances he did little to distinguish himself, but considering the small sample size, I'm willing to give him a pass and see what he can do with a full-time gig at first base or designated hitter to start the season. His patient approach at the plate should yield solid pitches to drive, but what he's able to do with them remains to be seen. He's a bit of a plodder, and he strikes out a fair amount, so James' projected average seems fair in spite of an average that exceeded .300 in Triple-A last year. I do believe there is more power potential than the projected 22 home runs, though the floor is also substantially lower. At this point in the draft, everyone has question marks, so I'll take my chances with a potential power source who has a lineup in which he can be in the middle of the order. Pick No. 3 (267 overall): Raul Ibanez Preseason projection: .275 AVG, 20 HR, 3 SB, 75 R, 83 RBI, 596 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe Another useful bench bat the autodrafter has gifted me. While it's safe to say that Ibanez won't return to his 2009 form, he'll provide some padding in RBI, likely hitting fifth in a still very good Phillies lineup. Pick No. 4 (268 overall): Kevin Slowey Preseason projection: 8 W, 4.02 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 102 K, 132 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches I had left at this point in the draft. I will say I'm impressed with Slowey's 2010 campaign, especially that he had an ERA close to 4.50 in one of the most extreme pitcher-friendly parks (Target Field) playing for the Twins. I'm trying to think of a league where it would be fine to draft Slowey and the only format I can think of is one that gives you points for innings pitched and K/BB ratio, and doesn't have an innings limit. Otherwise, if you're going to draft a Twins starting pitcher not named Francisco Liriano, draft Brian Duensing (who for some reason managed to go undrafted in this league. Pick No. 5 (269 overall): Chipper Jones Preseason projection: .280 AVG, 13 HR, 3 SB, 64 R, 74 RBI, 487 PA Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner This was clearly a “category B” flier. On the one hand, there isn’t a chance in the world that Jones stays healthy all year, and if he actually steals three bases I’ll be shocked. My feeling on Jones is that (a) he really, really wants to go out well, and (b) when he does play, his numbers will be solid. Chipper usually has a good first month before his annual injury cycle kicks in. I figure maybe between him and Carlos Lee I can get an upper-quartile season at corner infield. Maybe it’s a little bit of a sentimental pick, too—I’ve always stayed away from Chipper when he was an early-round draftee because I was always worried about injuries (I was right, too), so this is my last chance to own him. And it’s only a mock draft, right? I’d hate for poor Chipper to hear that he went undrafted in the THTF fantasy mock. Imagine what it would do to his self-esteem. Pick No. 6 (270 overall): Johnny Cueto Preseason pojection: 176 IP, 9 W, 4.14 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 146 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs With the draft winding down, I like to grab a couple of starting pitchers who I’m confident won’t hurt me, yet give me enough upside to warrant a draft pick. Cueto usually isn’t one of those guys, and I was surprised he was still available at pick 260. He took some good steps last season, and I’m willing to give him a chance to do it again. Pick No. 7 (271 overall): Brian Matusz. Preseason projection: 10 W, 3.88 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 154 K, 181 IP Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Matusz was once heralded as the best pitcher in the Orioles’ system. That designation may belong to Zach Britton now, but Matusz flashed that elite prospect skill set toward the end of the 2010 season. His ERA, FIP and most of his peripherals improved. He looked more comfortable on the mound, and 2011 success could be the next step in his progression. His only risks are seen in his BABIP regression, and he still pitches in the AL East. I love his upside. That’s what these picks are meant for. Pick No. 8 (272 overall): Rick Porcello Preseason projection: 10 W, 4.21 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 102 K, 188 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms I just missed out on Cueto, Slowey and Matusz, but can the word “missed out on” actually be valid this late in a draft? Probably not. Porcello has done nothing in his major league career to make me want to own him, yet the possibility of the 22-year-old living up to the hype surrounding his major league draft pick carries on. It’s not normal to make a pick that isn’t based on stats for Fantasy Phenoms, but in round 23, for one pick, it’s all right. I already wish I had taken Bud Norris, who went two picks after we took Porcello. Pick No. 9 (273 overall): Joba Chamberlain Preseason projection: 5 W, 6 SV, 3.79 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 81 K, 76 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Chamberlain will be the poster child for post-hype sleepers in 2011. Joba has fallen from grace since his Carlos Marmol-like debut in 2007. Last season saw him relegated to the bullpen, where his fastball velocity returned to form (94.6 mph) and he regained both his control (2.76 walks per nine innings) and inner Tim Lincecum (9.67 strikeouts per nine). Despite the Yankees' desperate need for fourth and fifth starters, it seems that Brian Cashman and Joe Girardi are intent on keeping Joba in the bullpen for 2011 (probably a mistake they will regret). While this will keep Chamberlain from being a top fantasy talent this year, he should still provide solid enough ratios and strikeout numbers to make him worth owning to balance out a roster. With Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano maintaining death grips on the eighth and ninth innings, Joba should get a good shot at vulturing wins from what should prove to be a shaky back-half rotation for New York. Though he won't come close to the 100-inning plateau, eight to 10 wins and a few savers are entirely attainable for the man who found all of the weight that CC Sabathia lost this offseason. Pick No. 10 (274 overall): Bud Norris Preseason projection: 8 W, 4.52 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 186 K, 187 IP Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Boasting a high-upside power arm, Norris had a relatively strong post-DL performance last year: 4.17 ERA with a 8.51 K/9 that built back up throughout the second half. At this point in the draft, I'm overlooking his control issues and hoping they improve. Pick No. 11 (275 overall): Jed Lowrie Preseason projection: .270 AVG, 17 HR, 4 SB, 75 R, 75 RBI, 550 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times The numbers Lowrie produced from a part-time role last season are stunning. Look them up if you don't know what I'm talking about. Another offseason, and playing time is still Lowrie's issue, stuck behind the sneakily valuable Marco Scutaro. I expect Lowrie to receive an increased share of at-bats, but it is also important to keep your expectations in check and not derive them simply by doubling his numbers from last year. Still, I like Lowrie as a late upside pick once all of the guys with more stable playing time go off the board. Pick No. 12 (276 overall): Placido Polanco. Preseason projection: .295 AVG, 8 HR, 5 SB, 83 R, 62 RBI, 636 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini, Bruno Boys It was the tale of two halves for Polanco, who was batting .318 with a .433 slugging percentage from the beginning of the season until an elbow injury derailed him in the middle of the season. After that, his line fell to .280/.331/.345, with little change to his on-base percentage but nearly a 90-point drop in slugging, indicating that the injury sapped his power. While he’s never posted big power numbers, I think he can get 10 homers with decent run and RBI numbers and something in the .290 average range, making this a fairly decent late-round pick Round 24Pick No. 1 (277 overall): Nyjer Morgan. Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 1 HR, 29 SB, 55 R, 24 RBI, 419 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys This is about steals, plain and simple. However I plan to get a nice batting average out of him as well, as last season’s atrocious .253 was way off his career average of .283. He never hit below .300 in the minors and .294 in the majors so you can bank on a bounce-back. With a higher batting average and on-base percentage should come enough runs to make him a great value this late. Pick No. 2 (278 overall): David DeJesus Preseason projection: .289 AVG, 11 HR, 6 SB, 86 R, 68 RBI, 665 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times In a five-outfielder league, DeJesus is the type of player I envision will occupy my fifth outfield spot. I may drop him at some point in the year, but then again I expect to have somewhat of a carousel with five outfielders. Last season I used Cody Ross, Jonny Gomes, and various others as fifth outfielders and was fine with them. DeJesus can hit for average and I feel might surprise people a bit this year playing for a new team. I hope he will run more with the A's and could make a nice late selection. With all that said, I should have taken Ryan Raburn here. Pick No. 3 (279 overall): Gaby Sanchez Preseason projection: .277AVG, 3 HR, 7 SB, 73 R, 89 RBI, 629 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Scrounging for power, I came across Sanchez, who had a nice breakout 2010 campaign after a long farm career. His contact rate and flyball percentage solidify his pop. His upside window is probably small given his long climb to the bigs, and getting a 20-homer stick here isn't bad. Pick No. 4 (280 overall): Ryan Raburn Preseason projection: .284 AVG, 23 HR, 7 SB, 83 R, 87 RBI, 582 Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches Ryan Raburn absolutely went nuts in the second half of last season, hitting 13 home runs and batting in 46 base runners while hitting .315 and crossing home plate 39 times over 273 plate appearances after the all star break. Raburn is a sleeper worth owning, but hardly worth gambling your team upon. Both Bill James and Oliver expect him to follow up last year’s numbers with roster-worthy production, and while I would not make Raburn my primary second basemen in any league (at least without a plan B), he could prove to be one of baseball’s best middle infielders this season. Pick No. 5 (281 overall): Yunel Escobar Preseason projection: .285 AVG, 8 HR, 6 SB, 79 R, 60 RBI, 623 PA Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms This is a pick I like a lot. A year ago, he was ranked as a top seven shortstop. One bad run-in with Bobby Cox and he was traded to the Blue Jays because of his attitude. He’s still young and The Rogers Centre offers a friendly park for hitters. As a middle infielder, you could do far worse than selecting Yunel late in the draft. Fifteen to 20 homers is still highly possible. Pick No. 6 (282 overall): Kurt Suzuki. Preseason projection: .262 AVG, 13 HR, 4 SB, 65 R, 73 RBI, 562 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Suzuki marks my first defensive pick. He provides me with the eighth best catcher on my board, and an insurance policy to Joe Mauer. He also gives me the opportunity to block my competitors from grabbing him on the super cheap. Normally I don’t roster two catchers in this deep a league, but with Mauer and such a deep league, one could never be too cautious. His lineup ought to be improved, and he gets a lot of plate appearances and RBIs. Closer to the season, I could see Hank Conger slipping up on Suzuki in my rankings. Mike Scioscia just confuses me. Pick No. 7 (283 overall): Kyle Drabek Preseason projection: 34 IP, 2 W, 3.71 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 27 K Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Drabek is still very young and a little raw, but he already has what it takes to be a big league starting pitcher. The Blue Jays have mentioned that they won’t keep too close an eye on his innings, but I’d bet they slow him down in the last month or two if they are out of the playoff picture. Pitching in Toronto isn’t ideal, but Drabek’s strong groundball tendencies should shine through. Pick No. 8 (284 overall): Freddie Freeman Preseason projection: 274 AVG, 15 HR, 3 SB, 65 R, 72 RBI, 544 PA (13 HBP) Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner So this is my first “category A” flier. I don’t think Freeman will be the next Justin Heyward, but people seem high on him, and given who else is available I figured “why not.” I have to laugh when I look at the projection line for Freeman. I mean, the guy has like 16 major league at-bats. I know the prognosticators have rigorous methodologies for translating age, minor league performance, hair color, etc. into a projection, but let’s face it, no one has a clue in the world what Freddie Freeman’s 2011 line is going to look like. I especially liked (and highlighted) the projection that he’ll be HBP 13 times, which ranks him fourth among first basemen behind Kevin Youkalis, Brett Wallace (??!!) and Prince Fielder, and tied for 10th in all of baseball. I can’t wait to see him win the coveted ROYHBP award. You heard it here first. Pick No. 9 (284 overall): Scott Rolen Preseason projection: .277 AVG, 16 HR, 3 SB, 69 R, 75 RBI, 519 PA. Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches I had left the draft at this point and yet Rolen still managed to be my utility player. What's wrong with that picture? If this were a real league I'm dropping Rolen for the first heartbeat in free agency to hit a home run. Pick No. 10 (285 overall): Johnny Damon Preseason projection: .271 AVG, 12 HR, 11 SB, 82 R, 57 RBI, 561 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe As if I didn't need another veteran outfield bat, the autodrafter insisted on one: Johnny Damon. I think that now that Damon is in Tampa, he could steal more bases (15-20), since Joe Maddon tends to fall under the Mike Scioscia philosophy of getting on base and being aggressive on the base paths. Damon still has decent speed, and coupled with the dozen home runs, he should have a good run total leading off for the Rays. Pick No. 11 (287 overall): Marc Rzepczynski Preseason projection: 5 W, 4.50 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 111 K, 110 IP Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times Coming into the 2010 season, Rzepczynski was a favorite sleeper of mine. Unfortunately, he did nothing to live up to thatr. He once again finds himself among my end-game favorites thanks to the Blue Jays opening up a rotation spot by dealing Shaun Marcum, and Zep's ability to rack up strikeouts while keeping the ball on the ground. He does lose the strike zone more than occasionally (4.32 BB/9 for his career), but his ability to punch out hitters and induce ground balls should limit the damage. He's a solid gamble for strikeouts, likely at the expense of WHIP to some degree, due to the higher average on balls in play of ground balls and his high walk rate, but he's a decent specialist with some potential upside. My perfect world projection would be a final season line that mirrors Jonathan Sanchez's 2009 campaign with the potential for a couple more wins. Pick No. 12 (288 overall): Aaron Harang Preseason projection: 8 W, 4.42 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 133 K, 159 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times It’s obvious with his high flyball profile that Cincinnati was never a perfect fit. Now that he misses fewer bats, any advantage he can get, park-wise, could be quite beneficial. Many projection models do see a positive upswing for Harang in 2011 in San Diego, so his implied-value was too good to pass up. Round 25Pick No. 1 (289 overall): Dan Bard Preseason projection: 6 W, 0 SV, 2.72 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 90 K, 76 IP Drafted by: Vince Caramela,The Hardball Times With my final pick in this draft, I figured I’d go after a lottery ticket. I know the nearer we come to spring training the more likely the Red Sox seem certain that Jonathan Papelbon will be their closer (of course, there wasn’t much doubt) but… just in case. Pick No. 2 (290 overall): Matt LaPorta Preseason projection: .257 AVG, 22 HR, 1 SB, 74 R, 77 RBI, 599 PA Drafted by: Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times LaPorta is my first base- and outfield-eligible draft pick version of Alex Gordon: a former blue chip prospect who has proven his worth in the upper minors, but been unable to translate that into major league success. With the Indians in full fledged rebuilding mode, LaPorta should get a full season to sink or swim. While he slugged only 2 home runs in 425 plate appearances for the Indians last year, he has been described in the past as having plus power, so if he's able to turn the corner, I'd expect to see better returns than the 22 home runs James' has projected. An unstable and developing lineup in Cleveland should allow LaPorta the opportunity to work his way into a prime run producing spot, which is an underrated perk of playing on a bad team. Pick No. 3 (291 overall): Jose Lopez Preseason projection: .265 AVG, 12 HR, 3 SB, 51 R, 60 RBI, 491 PA Drafted by: Ray Flores, Fantasy Baseball Cafe A hit-or-miss flyball hitter, Lopez could be a good fit hitting half of the season at Coors Field. Lopez's second base defense might leave something to be desired and Eric Young Jr. figures to split time with him, but if given the playing time, Lopez could be an asset. Lopez is also a decent third base bench option to leverage with should Ian Stewart struggle. Pick No. 4 (292 overall): A.J. Burnett Preseason projection: 12 W, 4.01 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 177 K, 191 IP Drafted by: Adam Kaplan, Game of Inches Is this a contract year for Burnett? No? Then don't draft him. I will say, though, that if you drafted Burnett last year thinking you were going to get the 2008/2009 Burnett, then you're going to get him for a steal in 2011. I agree with Bill James that Burnett will get his Yankee wins and settle fine into that rotation again as a No. 3 starter. I expect that his 2010 year was an outlier for him and Burnett will be back to being Burnett. Unfortunately, that's not that good and there are many better options for you. Pick No. 5 (293 overall): Clayton Richard Preseason projection: 10 W, 3.60 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 148 K, 205 IP Drafted by: Dave Chenok, THTF Competition Winner Richard is a pretty good, relatively young pitcher—he was terrific the first two-thirds of last year, then faded, which is not surprising given that the Padres stopped hitting and he was in uncharted territory in terms of innings pitches. He’ll be a year older and stronger, and you've to love a lefty pitching half his games at PetCo. I am again wondering about how these projection systems work—Richard was 9-5 in his first full season two years ago, and 14-9 last year, so unless the projection system is factoring in that San Diego traded Adrian Gonzalez (which maybe it does, but I doubt it), I don’t know how it extrapolates to a 10-12 won-lost record for a maturing Richard in 2011. In that spirit, let me leave everyone with this thought: remember the time in middle school when you were taking that history test and you weren’t sure about your answer, and you glanced to your left at the smart girl’s paper, and changed your answer to hers, and then it turned out you were right in the first place? Well, that’s what “experts” and projections can do to you. You start thinking they know more than you do, and listen to them, and change around your ratings—and screw yourself up. I remember last year, on the morning of my main draft, reading some expert who said that Joey Votto’s BABIP was unsustainable, and that he expected real regression in 2010, and when I had a chance to take Votto in Round three I almost didn’t do it (but I did—my best pick in the draft). I am still waiting for Grady Sizemore to have the monster season he’s been supposed to have every year since he came into the league. And just because some system “projects” Chone Figgins to knock in 70 runs this year, it doesn’t mean he will come close. So as your draft approaches, study the numbers and the facts, draw your conclusions, make your lists—and once you do, believe in them. Resist the temptation to modify what you think based on some magical pronouncement by an “expert.” The truth is, “experts” are just guys like you and me, who to their credit love baseball, probably have a day job, are operating on a deadline, and have to write something to meet it. Don’t win or lose your league on someone else’s thinking. Win or lose it in on yours. Pick No. 6 (294 overall): Mitch Moreland Preseason projection: .281 AVG, 7 HR, 2 SB, 25 R, 30 RBI, 198 PA Drafted by: Zach Sanders,Roto Hardball, FanGraphs Moreland was great for the Rangers last year, and even with the acquisitions of Adrian Beltre and Mike Napoli, Moreland should get ample playing time at first base. While he probably won’t hit dingers at the same rate he did last year, he’s still worth having around on your bench in case he does. Even if/when he doesn’t, he’s going to have some value if his BABIP correct itself. Pick No. 7 (295 overall): Juan Uribe. Preseason projection: .253 AVG, 20 HR, 2 SB, 62 R, 73 RBI, 538 PA Drafted by: Ben Pritchett,The Hardball Times Wait, I didn’t have a middle infielder. I wanted Ryan Raburn, and I missed on him. I tried for Neil Walker, but again I failed. Left with little other option, Uribe fell into my lineup. Banking on 20-plus homers and tons of eligibility is about all you can do at this point. Uribe has very little upside. What you see is what you get, but he reveals a certain flaw in my team. My batting average could be awful. Thank God for Mauer and Votto, but they’ll have to carry me because we all know Uribe, Suzuki, and Hideki Matsui won’t. Pick No. 8 (296 overall): Evan Meek Preseason projection: 4 W, 12 SV, 3.38 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 62 K, 72 IP Drafted by: Brett Greenfield, Fantasy Phenoms Much like the Francisco pick, I took Meek hoping he’d win the closer’s gig, which was recently given to Joel Hanrahan. There is still a chance Meek manages five or 10 saves this year, but as of now, this pick looks awful. No big deal; I’ll just drop him after the first game of the season. Pick No. 9 (297 overall): Takashi Saito Preseason projection: 4 W, 0 SV, 2.88 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 54 K, 50 IP Drafted by: Jeffrey Gross, The Hardball Times, Game Of Inches As time passes, my colleagues continually convince me of John Axford’s ability to keep the closer role in 2011. I still have my doubts, however, and that’s why I drafted the Brewers’ plan B, one of baseball’s best relievers when healthy, as my saves-source speculation. Even if Saito does not get many saves (and he’s got that “invaluable closing experience” should Axford falter), his ratios alone make him worth owning. Pick No. 10 (298 overall): J.J. Hardy Preseason projection: .263 AVG, 16 HR, 1 SB, 64 R, 62 RBI, 526 PA Drafted by: Tim Heaney,KFFL Hardy tried to come back early from his wrist injury last year, and it cost him. Target Field exacerbated people's willingness to abandon this former 20-homer bat. Look at where he is now: He's spending his contract year in Camden Yards. Not a bad place to resurrect your stock. I took notice. Pick No. 11 (299 overall): Cliff Pennington Preseason projection: .248 AVG, 5 HR, 29 SB, 67 R, 44 RBI, 557 PA Drafted by: Paul Singman, The Hardball Times No one on the A's roster is really breathing down Pennington's neck for playing time, which you can consider a good thing. If I feel my team is light on steals coming to the end of a draft, I'll have no problem adding Pennington and his surprising 30-steal potential to my squad. There is value in playing every day and he seems lined up to do so. Pick No. 12 (300 overall): Miguel Tejada. Preseason projection: .279 AVG, 17 HR, 3 SB, 80 R, 84 RBI, 671 PA Drafted by: Lane Rizzardini,Bruno Boys Now we come to Mr. Irrelevant, Miguel Tejada, who will be joining the World Champion San Francisco Giants for the 2011 season. He gives me more depth in the infield and some decent counting stats, though at 37-years old I’m not exactly sure he can live up to these projections. I’m actually surprised at what he’s been able to do the last few years, averaging a line of 82/14/74/5/.288, but I wouldn’t plan on him sticking around on my roster too long were we to play this out. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
