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THT's Fantasy Archives
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
On Jan., I participated in the Hardball Times expert fantasy baseball mock draft with some of the best names in the industry. For me, this was my first mock draft of the season and I was very pleased with the team I selected. The format of the mock draft was a 12-team 5x5 roto league with starting lineups that included two catchers, five outfielders, a corner and middle infielder, and nine pitchers. I had the fourth overall pick in the draft and was quite surprised with who slipped to me in the first round. For this review of the mock draft, I will provide some insight and analysis of the entire first round and then summarize all of my picks.
1. Miguel Cabrera (1B-DET). The growing trend over the past couple days since the Tigers signed Prince Fielder was moving Cabrera up to number one overall status. This is because he will have the ultimate in lineup protection with Fielder batting cleanup behind him. Cabrera is one of the best hitters in baseball for both power and average, and he should have no trouble matching or exceeding his career averages which total over 30 home runs and 100 RBI. He is as close to a sure thing as there is in fantasy baseball.
2. Matt Kemp (OF-LAD). It was a breakout season for Kemp in 2011 as he flirted with the Triple Crown in the National League. There was never a doubt about his talent. But he finally matured and put it all together amassing incredible offensive numbers that almost garnered him an MVP. His five-category production makes him one of the most valuable roto players in all of baseball. The only question with him is whether he will put too much pressure on himself to justify the new eight-year contract worth $20 million per season.
3. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF-BOS). This pick was quite a surprise. Ellsbury had an incredible season in 2011 as he stayed healthy and developed tremendous power numbers as the Red Sox leadoff hitter. He sacrificed some stolen bases for a lot of home runs, RBI, and extra base hits. Whether he can replicate that performance is another question and exactly why I was surprised he was taken third overall. He is extremely talented and certainly capable of putting up those type of numbers. But with the third pick, I would prefer a known entity.
4. Albert Pujols (1B-LAA). This was my pick and I didn’t hesitate at all to take King Albert in his American League debut. Pujols has seen his numbers slightly decline over the past three years and he has had some injuries. But he is only 32 years old and can now be rested in the DH slot. Pujols will be looking to impress his new teammates so an MVP in the American League is not out of the realm of possibility.
5. Jose Bautista (3B-TOR). I guess 2010 was not a fluke after all. Bautista stormed back in 2011 with another impressive offensive barrage. He didn’t surpass 50 home runs again, but he was amongst the league leaders in most offensive categories. He even improved his batting average and on base percentage which makes him even more valuable in fantasy. Plus, third base is a relatively weak fantasy position this year as there are only a handful of viable options.
6. Joey Votto (1B-CIN). I see both sides to taking Votto here. He does have more stolen base potential than many of the other remaining options, and he has the benefit of playing home games at the bandbox in Cincinnati. But I would say that Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are better options than Votto based on pure power numbers.
7. Troy Tulowitzki (SS-COL). It was strange to have first shortstop taken was not be Hanley Ramirez. After Ramirez’s atrocious year in 2011, it appears that Tulowitzki has ascended to the top option at shortstop. He is just entering his prime and should be a lock for 25 home runs and close to 100 RBI. He will have the benefit of additional lineup protection with the additions of Michael Cuddyer, Ramon Hernandez and Marco Scutaro. Tulo tends to be streaky which is more of a downside for H2H leagues, but at the end of the day he will justify his position as a Top 10 pick.
8. Robinson Cano (2B-NYY). Cano gets all the love as the top second baseman in the league, but arguments can be made that Dustin Pedroia is actually a better fantasy option because of his stolen bases. Cano never runs, and this is even further emphasized by the fact that he may be hitting third or fourth in the Yankees batting order permanently. Cano is without question one of the best hitters in all of baseball and certainly merits being a top 10 pick at such a scarce position. He is a lock for a .300 batting average with 20+ home runs and 100+ RBI.
9. Evan Longoria (3B-TB). This pick was a bit surprising because he probably would have lasted into the second round. After Bautista was off the board, Longoria is arguably the next best option at 3B. His batting average in 2011 was likely an aberration so I am not overly concerned about that. Now entering his fifth season, Longoria could be on the verge of an explosion as he approaches the magical age of 27. His walk ratio was up and his strikeouts were down last year, a good indication of things to come.
10. Adrian Gonzalez (1B-BOS). If ever anyone was a victim to the ballpark he played in, it would be Gonzalez who was hampered by the cavernous, pitcher-friendly PetCo Park in San Diego. After being traded to Boston, Gonzalez was able to showcase his talents to the whole world and fully took advantage of hitting in a potent lineup at a great hitter’s park. Assuming he is healthy, Gonzales is a lock for a .300+ batting average, 30+ home runs, and 100+ RBI. He will also score a ton of runs just by virtue of hitting the middle of Boston’s lineup. I would have taken him over Votto several picks before this.
11. Justin Upton (OF-ARZ). It is too bad that fantasy baseball doesn’t take into account the length of home runs hit. Upton crushed several home runs well over 450 feet last season and really established himself as one of baseball’s brightest young stars. His combination of power and speed makes him an attractive roto option in the outfield which has become a very thin position compared to years past. Upton should also benefit from better lineup protection with the addition of Jason Kubel and the emergence of Paul Goldschmidt. He is certainly worthy of a first round pick given his five-category production.
12. Curtis Granderson (OF-NYY). Without a doubt, Granderson’s fantasy value increased more than any other player last year. He put together a season for the ages with 41 home runs, 119 RBI, 136 runs scored and 25 stolen bases. The most impressive part of his game was his improvement against left-handed pitchers. Granderson is now an elite fantasy option and should continue to thrive in the Yankees’ explosive lineup and the home run haven known as Yankee Stadium.
Now here are my picks in the remaining rounds:
Second round – Jose Reyes (SS-MIA). It pained me a bit to make this pick, but after Troy Tulowitzki and Hanley Ramirez were off the board Reyes was the best shortstop available. His contract may come back and bite the Marlins years down the road, but for his inaugural season in Miami I think Reyes will be very productive on a good team and with something to prove. He may not steal 50+ bases anymore, but we can expect a .300 batting average and lots of runs scored.
Third round – CC Sabathia (SP-NYY). I didn’t want to wait any longer to take my first pitcher, so it came down to a choice between Sabathia and Jered Weaver. I opted for Sabathia because I like the Yankees bullpen a lot more to preserve wins, and I think Weaver will be unable to replicate his 2011 performance. Sabathia is a lock for 19-20 wins, a 3.00 ERA, close to 200 strikeouts, and a sub 1.30 WHIP.
Fourth round – Alex Rodriguez (3B-NYY). Oh how the mighty have fallen. Once a guaranteed top five pick, A-Rod has fallen on hard times over the past couple years as age, injuries, and a lack of steroids have sapped him of his power and run production. I thought this was a great time to grab Rodriguez because he still has the capability of putting up a monster season. Even if he only hits 25 homers and drives in 90 runs, that is still solid production for a fourth round pick. He will slip in most drafts, so the question is when to pull the trigger on him. This is probably the right spot for him to go.
Fifth round – Jon Lester (SP-BOS). For my second pitcher, I took Red Sox ace Jon Lester. He fell off of people’s radar because of how poorly he pitched down the stretch in 2011 as Boston’s epic collapse unfolded. But he is still a young and dominating starter who should be counted on for at least 15 wins and close to 200 strikeouts.
Sixth round – Alex Gordon (OF-KC). By the sixth round, I still didn’t have an outfielder. I took Gordon over Shin Soo Choo because Gordon has proven to be consistent in all five roto categories and is one of the cornerstones of an up and coming Kansas City offense. Choo has more power potential, but I at least know I am getting a .290 batting average with 15-20 homeruns, 80-90 RBI, 80-90 runs scored, and 10-15 stolen bases from Gordon.
Seventh round – C.J. Wilson (SP-LAA). I was very happy to get Wilson as my third pitcher because he has established himself as one of the more effective and consistent starters in the game. He will be pitching for his hometown Los Angeles Angels and will likely be their number three starter.
Eighth round – Michael Cuddyer (OF-COL). Continuing my goal of drafting players who can contribute in all categories, I took the Rockies’ new outfielder Michael Cuddyer. He should flourish hitting in the thin air of Denver and could reach 30 home runs if things go right. He also hits for a decent average and can get double-digit steals. I am liking the Gordon-Cuddyer combination so far.
Ninth round – Ryan Howard (1B-PHI). This is my steal of the draft. Sure he will probably miss the first month of the season, but there is no reason to think Howard won’t come back fully healthy and with a vengeance. Even if he doesn’t play a game until May 1, he will be a huge addition to my team and can obviously provide tremendous power numbers.
10th round – Howie Kendrick (2B-LAA). Fresh off a new contract extension, Kendrick will have the pleasure of batting in front of Albert Pujols. He showed he can be a consistent hitter in 2011 and that should continue into 2012 as he gets a healthy dose of fastballs batting second in the Angels order. I was very pleased to get a second baseman like this at this point in the draft.
11th round – Mariano Rivera (RP-NYY). With only a couple closers off the board by this point, I thought I should start paying attention to saves and grab the best in the business. Age apparently is not a factor for Rivera who has shown no indication he is slowing down. Assuming he stays healthy, he should surpass 40 saves again with a miniscule ERA and WHIP.
12th round – Chris Young (OF-ARZ). For my third outfielder, I liked Young because he has great power and speed capabilities. He could be a 30-30 player every year, but he must improve his pitch selection and batting average.
13th round – Jose Valverde (RP-DET). To complement Rivera, I was fortunate to get Valverde who was perfect in save opportunities for the AL Central champion Tigers. He should have a chance approach 50 saves with their pitching staff and terrific offense.
14th round – Chad Billingsley (SP-LAD). This was a bit of a risky pick, but I thought the 14th round was a good time for a reclamation project. Billingsley was once one of the top young pitching prospects in baseball, but he struggled mightily in 2011. Even if he doesn’t bounce back, there is not much to lose with this gamble.
15th round – Colby Rasmus (OF-TOR). I really liked this selection because Rasmus has all the potential in the world and now gets his first full season in Toronto. For various reasons, he couldn’t put it all together in St. Louis. Now, without the additional pressure, he will get a chance to shine in a very good lineup.
16th round – Jaime Garcia (SP-STL). I was surprised Garcia lasted this long because all he has done is win with a low ERA since getting to the big leagues. He will now get pushed back to the Cardinals’ number three spot in the rotation because Adam Wainwright will be back.
17th round – Huston Street (RP-SD). To cap off my closers, I grabbed Street here instead of Chris Perez of the Indians. Street has pitched very well since coming to the NL West and will have plenty of chances to save games with the low-scoring Padres. Even if he only gets 30 saves, he is my third closer.
18th round – Bobby Abreu (DH-LAA). Former fantasy stud Bobby Abreu has fallen on hard times as he approaches 40 years old. He saw his batting average plummet in 2011 and he didn’t even reach double digits in home runs. However, he still figures to score a decent amount of runs and can swipe a few bags here and there.
19th round – Russell Martin (C-NYY). I usually punt on catchers because the handful who have any value are always big health risks and they pale in comparison to other options earlier in the draft. My goal is just to get a catcher or two who start and play at least five times a week. Martin will be the Yankees starter and can still hit a bit, so I was pleased to get him in the 19th round.
20th round – Jason Bay (OF-NYM). Ugh. With the fences brought in at Citi Field, maybe Bay can actually hit 20 homers this year. Nah, who am I kidding?
21st round – Ivan Nova (SP-NYY). Nova is one of the few pitchers who can win almost 20 games and not even strike out 100 batters. He developed into a solid pitcher in 2011 and will look to improve upon that in 2012. He will help for wins, but if he can punch out batters at a better rate this pick will be even more valuable.
22nd round – Kurt Suzuki (C-OAK). Because this format requires two catchers, I grabbed the best available backstop who starts for his team. Suzuki didn’t have a great year in 2011, but he is a solid hitter and can at least be counted on to play most days.
23rd round – Mike Aviles (2B-BOS). For my middle infielder, I took Aviles because he should get most of the playing time at shortstop for the Red Sox. After trading both Jed Lawrie and Marco Scutaro, Aviles will get the call until Boston’s next prospect is ready. Aviles has had success before and will now have the benefit of hitting in their potent lineup.
24th round – Alfonso Soriano (OF-CHC). Oh how the mighty have fallen even more. Soriano is an albatross for the Cubs with his prohibitive contract and poor play. But he is also an albatross for fantasy owners who remember what he used to be able to do. For the 24th round, I can live with whatever he provides because by some miracle he could still hit 30 home runs and steal 20 bases.
25th round – Seth Smith (OF-OAK). It isn’t often that you find a cleanup hitter in the 25th round of a draft, but that's what happened here. Smith was traded to Oakland and should finally have a chance to play every day. The A’s lineup does not look impressive on paper, so Smith may have limited chances to drive in runs, but at this point in the draft, I was looking to acquire depth and fill out my bench.
26th round – Jake Peavy (SP-CHW). It is even less often that you find a former Cy Young Award winner who is supposedly healthy and still pitching in the 26th round of a draft. Peavy has never matched the success from his award winning season, but he should get a chance to reclaim his past glory with the rebuilding White Sox. For my last pick in the draft, this was certainly worth the risk.
Overall, I was very happy with the team I drafted. I have a good mix of power and speed, including several players who contribute in both categories. My pitching staff is solid and I have three good closers. I would go into battle with this team any day of the week. Here is my roster by position:
C Russell Martin-NYY
C Kurt Suzuki-OAK
1B Albert Pujols-LAA
2B Howie Kendrick-LAA
3B Alex Rodriguez-NYY
SS Jose Reyes-MIA
OF Alex Gordon-KC
OF Michael Cuddyer-COL
OF Chris Young-ARZ
OF Jason Bay-NYM
OF Alfonso Soriano-CHC
DH Bobby Abreu-LAA
CI Michael Cuddyer-COL
MI Mike Aviles-BOS
BN Ryan Howard-PHI
BN Seth Smith-OAK
SP C.C. Sabathia-NYY
SP Jon Lester-BOS
SP C.J. Wilson-LAA
SP Chad Billingsley-LAD
SP Jaime Garcia-STL
SP Ivan Nova
RP Mariano Rivera-NYY
RP Jose Valverde-DET
RP Huston Street-SD
BN Jake Peavy-CHW
What are your thoughts on the team I drafted?
Posted by Michael Stein at 12:14am
Monday, January 30, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions.
So here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Prince Fielder to the Tigers
As if anyone expected anything less from Scott Boras.
Sure, it took the superagent some time to complete his latest masterpiece, but from a business standpoint, it’s hard to argue with the success of a nine-year, $214 million contract, especially when it’s signed by a player who is almost certain to be significantly overpaid by the second half of the deal.
For us mere fantasy-playing minions, who own no such financial stake in Fielder’s future fortunes, Detroit’s acquisition will likely prove to be the most consequential transaction of the offseason for its impact on not one, but two, superstars.
Let’s start with the obvious. Very much in the prime of his career, Fielder, 27, is an OPS machine on wheels who’s nearly a lock to put up monster numbers this season. Having played in no fewer than 157 games since his first full season in 2006, Fielder’s lifetime triple slash line of .282/.390/.540 provides a baseline of consistency that hints at another 30-plus home run season in 2012.
Granted, Stat Corner’s data note that, unlike Miller Park, Comerica Park suppresses left-handed home runs by 12 percent. Then again, a typical Fielder home run isn’t bound to the same limits of mortal major league hitters, as the big fella’s 38 home runs, on average, would have escaped the playing fields of 25 major league parks, according to ESPN’s Home Run Tracker.
As THT’s Nick Fleder points out, the trio of Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Miguel Cabrera should provide similar table-setting opportunities compared to the Brewers’ 1-2-3 of Rickie Weeks, Nyjer Morgan and Ryan Braun. And I’m willing to bet Fielder will see worse starting pitching in the AL Central compared to his old division, as the Twins, Royals, Indians and White Sox all finished in the AL’s lower half in team ERA last year.
Fielder’s arrival, as you already know, bumps Miguel Cabrera over to third base in what will likely be the worst trial since the Stanford prison experiment. But that’s just Detroit’s problem, right? Well, not necessarily. As we look forward to watching Miggy gain eligibility at third base, keep an eye out for an eventual shift to DH, a spot currently occupied by the likes of Don Kelly, Ryan Raburn and Brandon Inge, all of whom could spell Cabrera in the field.
If (when) he’s demoted to DH, Miggy’s productivity runs the risk of a 10-percent decline, and although 111 plate appearances is hardly conclusive, his career .230/.306/.370 line doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence. That said, Cabrera still enters 2012 as the most desirable third baseman in fantasy and probably surpasses Albert Pujols—if not Matt Kemp—with regard to candidacy as the first overall pick.
Francisco Cordero to set up Sergio Santos
In the end, Cordero was the closer left without a chair when the offseason music stopped, as a guy who’s averaged nearly 39 saves over the past five seasons settled for a one-year, $4.5 million deal to serve as Santos’ caddy.
Of course, at 36 years old, Cordero is entering a stage of his career when he’ll begin experiencing a natural decline, a trend already evidenced by several drooping numbers. At 5.4, Cordero’s K/9 rate was his worst since 2001—when he hurled all of 2.1 innings—and his average fastball velocity has lost two mph since 2009. Last year’s 4.02 FIP is out of sync with his 2.45 ERA, as were his .214 BABIP and 82.3 LOB percentage, numbers well outside his career norms.
Still, Cordero improved upon his walk rate and WHIP and still retains significant value in leagues that reward holds. And while his presence at the back end of Toronto’s bullpen will boost Santos’ fantasy value, he now represents the most immediate threat to the new closer’s job security if things go haywire this season.
Cody Ross to enter right-field platoon for Red Sox
Three years removed from a season in which he posted 24 home runs and 90 RBIs, Ross is a classic platoon player, featuring a career .912 OPS against left-handed pitchers that’s nearly 200 points above his mark against righties. That’s important, since he projects as a platoon partner with Ryan Sweeney as they anchor Boston’s right field.
Of course, his fantasy value will be limited so long as his at-bats are capped, but he could be an intriguing option in deeper AL-only leagues, especially if he’s fully recovered from the left hamstring injury that plagued his second half last year.
Odds and ends from around the majors
• The Phillies agreed to a minor-league deal with 34-year-old Juan Pierre, who will have to contend with John Mayberry, Jr., Laynce Nix and possibly Scott Posednik for playing time in left field. A steady job could return steal-happy Pierre to fantasy relevance, though his stolen-base success rate last year was an abysmal 61.3 percent, and his 44 attempts were nearly a career low over a full season.
• Ryan Theriot enters spring training as Brandon Crawford’s most threatening competition for shortstop appearances, though manager Bruce Bochy has reiterated his plan to hand the position’s keys to the 25-year-old this season. If Crawford runs into trouble, Theriot’s old buddy from Chicago, Mike Fontenot, also could compete for regular playing time.
• Jeff Keppinger will likely see utility work on the Rays this season, though it’s possible he’ll be relegated mostly to action against left-handed pitchers. He hit .255/.285/.333 in 230 plate appearances last year between the Astros and Giants.
• Brad Lidge has signed with Washington to help set up Drew Storen, but it’s not clear if he’s next in line following Tyler Clippard’s excellent 2011 season as the Nationals’ eighth-inning man. At 35, Lidge's injury history is also unavoidable, particularly after a partially torn rotator cuff zapped the first half of his 2011 season and probably helped slow his fastball to an alarming 89 mph.
Obviously, there's no guarantee Clippard will replicate last year's magic, and if something disastrous strikes Storen, opportunity may come knocking for the veteran reliever.
• Cincinnati’s currently projected starting rotation doesn’t leave a lot of room for Jeff Francis, who signed a minor-league contract this week. Then again, it remains to be seen whether Aroldis Chapman finally will make the transition from the bullpen to the rotation, or whether Homer Bailey—whose first name not only serves as a distinctive moniker but a source of ironic black humor—will hold down a starting job this season.
True, no one's running out to buy Jeff Francis t-shirts just yet, but in his defense, several teams were reportedly interested in his services this year, and his contract allows him to opt out before March closes if he feels he can find a better opportunity elsewhere.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:40am
First of all, if you haven't gotten the chance to familiarize yourself with the results of THT's recent mock draft, you can do so by clicking here.
When I took on the duty of organizing and putting together the mock draft, never did it occur to me that I would be forced into the No. 1 pick. I hate drafting first, and not for the reasons you may think. Sure, it’s a nice problem to have. You get your choice of anybody. Who could have a problem with that?
Personally, I really hate the length of time in between picks, which is probably the reason why I am a proponent of the auction draft. I like to pick players on my terms. I enjoy taking the bidding process to decide how much I value a guy. In a snake draft, you are a slave to the draft order and the clock. I digress.
Upon learning of my first pick, I narrowed my selection down to four guys: Albert Pujols, Matt Kemp, Miguel Cabrera, and Jose Bautista. I labored through several different scenarios. I had it all narrowed down to Pujols, then God and Mike Ilitch gave Cabrera back his third-base eligibility. For me, my decision became clear. Miguel was my man.
Even though third base isn't as bad as it was last year, that distinction is just enough to set Cabrera above Pujols. Cabrera is old in baseball years, but not in real life. He’s only 29. He’s every bit as capable as Pujols to put up the same stats, but I would much rather my third baseman flourish than my first baseman.
One note I made in my head during our mock draft was that first base isn’t quite as deep as you may think. So I wouldn’t sleep on the middle tier, because once those guys are gone, it gets really nasty.
Here I am, ecstatic with my selection of Cabrera. I was set on drafting another big first baseman like Prince Fielder or Mark Teixeira and either Mike Stanton or Ryan Braun during my swing picks. I had underestimated the stock of both Stanton and Braun as they flew off in the second round before I got the chance. I adjusted and grabbed Tex. So I decided the remaining hitters weren’t quite up to the talent level of the starting pitching so I nailed Tim Lincecum down as my ace.
With Lincecum, Cabrera, and Teixeira in my quiver, I aimed my sights on speed and talent. Nelson Cruz was the most talented player on the board, and Michael Bourn was the best source of speed to help offset all the power I was starting to amass. Bourn is a very undervalued commodity even if he loses some of his batting average in 2012. With an assumption that Cruz could stay healthy, I am very happy with the way my team is starting to look.
As we entered round six, I really wanted a studly catcher, but Derek Ambrosino decided he needed to not only draft Brian McCann but also Joe Mauer, a sleeper pick of mine. Ambrosino’s greed forced me to go back to the starting pitching. I struggled with the safe pick of Matt Cain or the riskier, more-talented Adam Wainwright. Anybody that knows how I play fantasy baseball knows the decision I will make here. When in doubt, draft talent, so the result was Wainwright.
I paired him with Kevin Youkilis, who had dropped way too far. I understand the age, health, and production problems he displayed in 2011. But I don’t need him to mash 30 home runs. Throughout Youky’s career he’s been an OBP monster. That’s what he gives me. He also gives me some flexibility at the hot corner if I were to need to trade later. I know this is a mock draft, and it’s silly to prepare for trading, but that’s how you prepare, people!
Okay, here’s where I start taking some chances. Lured in by the two front-end aces and underwhelmed by the hitters available, I paired Yu Darvish with Josh Johnson to complete a solid front four in my rotation. I’m not usually so pitcher-heavy, but I absolutely love the talent of all four starting pitchers I’ve assembled.
Everybody is wrong about their hesitation against Darvish, and I’m tired of saying why. Johnson is ridiculously good when he toes the rubber. How often he toes that rubber is the real question, but I think that’s worth a ninth-round pick to figure out.
I spent the next four picks filling out my positional needs with upside. Andre Ethier will bounce back now that he’s healthy. Ike Davis will benefit from the cozier home park and natural growth. I’m not usually a Dustin Ackley fan, but he was far-and-away the best second baseman available, and he should help my average. Alexei Ramirez gives me a solid shortstop. I have him pegged as an upper-middle-tier option up the middle. He still has potential, but if he continues to do what he’s been doing, then that would be fine for this roster.
I decided to go all talent with the next four picks. Cory Luebke is a stud in the making. For those that don’t know, you should really acquaint yourself with this guy. Part of the reason the Padres were ready to let Mat Latos move on was because Luebke is ready to take that next step and lead that staff.
Yes, I did draft Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes. I literally looked at the players available, and I couldn’t get the scouts' comparison of his power to Mike Stanton. With a 70-plus scouting grade on his speed, we really don’t know how good this guy really is. He’ll strike out, I’m sure, but I’m all about spending a fifteenth-round pick sheerly on chance, especially in the outfield position.
My next two picks were pretty obvious and easy for me. I still felt like I could add some more speed, and I still hadn’t garnered the services of a closer, hence my selections of Jason Motte and Mike Trout.
I believe Carlos Quentin has the power to still hit home runs in Petco if he stays healthy. That’s a really big “if,” but there’s little risk this late. Quentin will serve as a solid backup to Trout and Cespedes.
I absolutely love Jim Johnson. I’m glad he’s getting a chance to close, but I secretly hoped he would get his chance to start. He’s a special talent that the rest of the baseball world doesn’t know yet.
Round twenty marks a stretch of five out of seven picks I do not like. Gordon Beckham was really the best available middle infielder, but I’m by no means sold on a breakout. I don’t know if I’d draft him on a real team, but he’ll do as a middle infielder. If not for the forcing of Jason Kubel as my last pick (we had to roster an actual DH), I would have drafted Tyler Pastornicky to back up the unstable Beckham.
I learned my lesson that I will need to draft a catcher, earlier than I did especially in a two-catcher league. I drafted Geovany Soto and prayed that Devin Mesoraco would last to me in the next pick. Well, he didn’t, and I settled with Salvador Perez.
Perez hit very well in Kansas City last year, but I’d be fooling myself if I thought he could replicate those stats. However, the full-time gig is his to lose, and Wil Myers has moved from behind the plate to the outfield, so he doesn’t have that talented rookie pushing him. It’s worth a wait-and-see.
I don’t like Francisco Liriano anymore, but I didn’t have much choice. I probably should have drafted Matt Thornton with this pick, but hindsight is always twenty-twenty.
My other two pertinent picks were Yonder Alonso and Jair Jurrjens. I was very excited to get Alonso this late. He has pole-to-pole gap power, and he’ll finally get his chance to show the baseball world his skill set. It’s a shame it’s taken this long.
I’m not a huge believer in Jurrjens, but at some point, the hate has to end. Round 25 is about that time. Jurrjens enters 2012 still recovering from his injuries, but that has been the theme with my pitching staff. Why stop now?
Here’s the final product:
C- Geovany Soto CHC
C- Salvador Perez KC
1B- Mark Teixeira NYY
2B- Dustin Ackley SEA
3B- Miguel Cabrera DET
SS- Alexei Ramirez CHW
CI- Kevin Youkilis BOS
MI- Gordon Beckham CHW
OF- Nelson Cruz TEX
OF- Michael Bourn ATL
OF- Andre Ethier LAD
OF- Yoenis Cespedes FA
OF- Mike Trout LAA
DH- Ike Davis NYM
B- Carlos Quentin OF SD
B- Yonder Alonso OF SD
B- Jason Kubel OF ARI
P- Tim Lincecum SP SFO
P- Adam Wainwright SP STL
P- Josh Johnson SP FLA
P- Yu Darvish SP TEX
P- Cory Luebke SP SD
P- Francisco Liriano SP MIN
P- Jair Jurrjens SP ATL
P- Jason Motte RP STL
P- Jim Johnson RP BAL
I’m not overly impressed, but I’m not embarrassed. I was able to get a lot of my guys, and I missed a lot of my guys. Personally, I felt Paul Singman’s team was the best, but I enjoyed the practice.
I hope that I, along with you, will take this opportunity to refine some of my flawed draft practices. I won’t make a real team this volatile. I know that, but I don’t see where I necessarily would have strayed too far from the guys I drafted. I like eighty percent of my team, and that’s not too bad. I look forward to seeing your opinions and comments.
Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:39am
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