THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:10am

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

The Verdict: Offseason keeper league trade dispute

There truly is no offseason in baseball - both real and fantasy. Many keeper leagues allow trades after the conclusion of the previous season and prior to the start of the next one. Given the nature of keeper leagues, trades do not always involve packages of absolute equivalent value. But when analyzing whether a trade should be permitted, it is necessary to evaluate other factors such as the salary cap implications, length of contracts, and the long-term effect on both teams. This is why there is a distinction between trades in keeper and non-keeper leagues.

The general standard is that trades should be allowed so long as there is no evidence of collusive conduct between teams, both teams agree to the terms, and a discernible benefit can be derived on both sides. Sometimes that benefit may not manifest itself in present-day statistics or performance. But in a keeper league, there is inherent value in acquiring young prospects who cost very little while gaining salary cap flexibility. Below is a recent case submitted to the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment involving a disputed trade in a very large keeper league.

SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT

Grave Diggers v. Chilidogs

ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE WESTERN NY ROTISSERIE BASEBALL LEAGUE

Decided January 26, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 5 (January 2012)

Factual Background

A fantasy baseball league called the Western NY Rotisserie Baseball League (hereinafter referred to as “Roto league” or “WNYRBL”) is comprised of 22 teams and has been in existence since 1987. The WNYRBL, hosted on CBSSports.com, utilizes an auction format for its annual draft and bidding on free agents when making transactions. Each team has a draft budget of $260 and an after-auction salary cap of $325. It is a mixed AL/NL keeper league where each team may keep a minimum of five (5) players and a maximum of fifteen (15) players from one season to the next within its 23-man roster.

As with many rotisserie leagues, the WNYRBL uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.

Because this is a keeper league, players may be signed to contracts as part of their retention from year to year. The rules regarding players’ contracts is as follows:

XV. LONG TERM CONTRACTS

A player whose been under contract for two consecutive seasons at the same salary must, prior to the freezing of the rosters in his 3rd or option season, be:

1. Released;
2. Signed at the same salary for his option year; or
3. Signed to a guaranteed long term contract.

If released, the player returns to the free agent pool and becomes available to the highest bidder at the next auction.

If signed at the same salary for the option year, the player must be released back into the free agent pool at the end of the season.

If signed to a guaranteed long term contract, the player's salary in each year covered by the new contract (which commences with the option year) shall be the sum of his current salary plus $5.00 for each addition year beyond the option year. In addition, a signing bonus, equal to one half the total value of the contract, but no less than $5.00 shall be paid.

Trades are permitted during the offseason. According to Section XI of the WNYRBL’s rules, trades are permissible after the last day of the season until rosters are frozen, which is two weeks prior to the draft.

Procedural History

The Grave Diggers have made a trade with the Chilidogs. The Grave Diggers traded Mitch Moreland (1B-TEX, $3.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) and Brent Morel (3B-CHW, $3.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) to the Chilidogs in exchange for Jose Reyes (SS-MIA, $38.00 with one year of eligibility at this salary remaining) and Javy Guerra (RP-LAD, $14.00 and in the first year of his short-term contract).

Issue Presented

(1) Should the trade between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs be upheld and approved?

Decision

The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).

The Court also acknowledges that the analysis for evaluating trades is much different in a keeper league than a non-keeper league. A trade that may look uneven or lopsided on its face may receive a different opinion when it is involved in a keeper league. The reasons for this are obvious, but must be restated.

In a keeper league, teams that are having unsuccessful seasons are more likely to continue to pay attention and make moves that will set themselves up for better success in the following season. They can do this by acquiring young talent that is not under contract within the league, or by dumping salary (assuming it is an auction league) and allowing greater financial flexibility to sign key players in the next season’s draft. In non-keeper leagues, there is no rationale for thinking ahead, nor is there any need to stockpile young, inexpensive talent. See Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010).

Another factor that the Court must always consider is whether there is any collusion or illicit dealings going on between teams. The Court has not been presented with any evidence of such malfeasance, so no analysis of potential collusive activity will be conducted.

At first glance, the trade of Mitch Moreland and Brent Morel in exchange for Jose Reyes and Javy Guerra looks imbalanced. Reyes is clearly the best player involved in this trade and has exponentially more fantasy value than both Moreland and Morel. The fact that he is being traded for players with far less value precipitates the need to analyze the merits of the trade beyond mere statistics.

The scope of the Court’s authority is to govern and advise when there is a dispute as to the validity of trades, rulings, decisions or other issues that arise within the league. See Silveramo v. Nation, 2 F.J. 38, 41 (October 2010) (holding that making a judgment on whether an individual did something stupid falls outside of the Court’s jurisdiction). It is not up to the Court to make a determination on what is considered intelligent.

Unwise decisions should not be scrutinized or vetoed merely because they are unwise. See Road Runners v. Urban Achievers, 3 F.J. 47, 50 (June 2011) (holding that the main criteria for evaluating a trade is its inherent fairness, not whether it was an intelligent decision by a league member to make the deal). Rather, the Court’s role in this jurisdiction is to evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret v. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010).

A player’s value is not necessarily equivalent to the accumulation of several other less valuable players’ statistics. See Team Sabo v. Nub Vader, 3 F.J. 55, 56 (July 2011). The Court has no issues with the idea of trading superstar players, such as Reyes, so long as the package in return is equitable and makes sense given the needs of both teams. See 4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 29 (June 2011). Here, it is empirically evident that Reyes and Guerra have better statistics and value than Moreland and Morel. As such, there is no need to break down each player’s individual statistics for comparison. Rather, the Court must look at other intangible factors to determine whether this trade should be upheld.

The approval or rejection of a trade should be based on whether the deal is fair, free from collusion, and in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. See 4 Ponies v. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. See Carson City Cocks v. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).

The Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from both perspectives. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. See Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011).

The record is devoid of the current rosters for both the Grave Diggers and Chilidogs. However, we can still determine certain needs and priorities of both teams based on the information provided. The Grave Diggers finished in last place in 2011 and clearly want to improve this season.

By acquiring Reyes and Guerra, the Grave Diggers will unquestionably improve their rankings in several rotisserie categories based on the players’ past performances and projected statistics. On the other hand, the Chilidogs finished in 4th place in 2011 and appear to desire younger players with upside, and to have more salary cap flexibility for the auction draft. For the 2012 season, the Chilidogs will save $46 by making this trade. This is a significant amount considering it represents approximately 17% of the draft budget allotted.

This trade, as with any other, is not free from risk for the team acquiring the established talent. Reyes, 28, is anything but a lock to stay healthy and produce for the entire season. He will be playing for a new team with a lot of pressure on him to justify his six year/$106 million contract. He is coming off a season where he went on the disabled list twice with hamstring injuries. His stolen base totals have not come anywhere near his totals from 2005-2008, which is due to many factors including age and injuries. Additionally, Guerra may not be the closer again for the Dodgers as Kenley Jansen may get an opportunity to seize the job.

The dichotomy between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues. See Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 34 (June 2010). Team owners in keeper leagues must make critical roster management decisions with respect to trading off established talent in exchange for unknown and less expensive commodities to help build for the future. See Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). Had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court would ardently reject it.

Based on the foregoing, the Court approves the subject trade between the Grave Diggers and the Chilidogs. It is understandable why a trade such as this would receive opposition because there is a dramatic difference in the present day value of both respective packages. See Cowboys vs. Knights, 3 F.J. 147, 150 (August 2011).

However, there are other factors to consider when determining whether a trade should be approved besides the actual statistics on the back of a baseball card. Here, a trade was proposed and agreed to between two teams with differing priorities. While the trade is comprised of two packages that cannot be considered completely equivalent, it is free from collusion and has discernible benefits for both parties. See Specialists vs. Knights, 3 F.J. 151, 154 (August 2011). As such, the trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.

IT IS SO ORDERED.

Posted by Michael Stein at 12:33am

Monday, February 27, 2012

Roundtable: why rank?

There was some discussion among the four staffers who compiled, over the last two weeks, the THT consensus rankings that top-200 lists and similar endeavors are pretty much dumb. Besides being wickedly tedious to put together, they don't do much by way of providing context or personal preference in draft strategy, and—we're guilty of this too—are thrown at readers among a mess of other top 200 lists.

So I set the THT staff out to discuss such rankings and share our opinions on the matter. For better transparency, and for better drafting, we do discuss.

Nick Fleder: I admit this may come across as slightly hypocritical, but during the compilation of our staff rankings, I recognized that there wasn't a lot of love for top-200 lists, or even top-250 and top-300 lists, for that matter. Point being: the number is mostly arbitrary and requires a great deal of context that isn't provided.

For example, my top 200 list may cater to how I play as a fantasy baller (never heard that one before, have you?): I may go pitching-heavy in my ranks, have shortstops top-heavy, and have relievers all in the 150-plus range because I simply don't pay for saves.

Whatever my mindset may be, it's certainly not supported by seemingly random rankings. It requires an in-depth, comprehensive write-up that would be not only tiresome to this author, but worthless to many readers who may then have to struggle with 15 different write-ups from 15 different sources that actually provide no consensus whatsoever but rather a vast jumbling of data to sift through.

Josh Shepardson: My biggest problem with the top-200 is the lack of context it comes with. A top-200 list is going to look much different for a two-catcher, corner-infielder, middle-infielder, five-outfielder league than one that starts one catcher, no backup infielders and only three outfielders (Yahoo! default).

It is also inherently silly. If I take my 12th-best player, and he's a starting pitcher, and I come up on the clock again, and hey look, another starting pitcher tops my list, am I really going to go SP/SP in the first two rounds? Maybe, if it is some kind of strategy I've already planned on, but likely no.

Jeff Gross: Oh, boy. I could never rank my top 200. I have issues ranking 60 outfielders, and 100 starters is pushing it, too. THT Forecasts has a "more perfect" system that has billions of iterations and positional value adjustment, but here's the quick and dirty Z-Score weighting system known as EYES.

Brad Johnson: I don't really do snake drafts anymore, so rankings have very little impact on my approach to fantasy. I consider position rankings to be a basic sorting feature and will occasionally draft a guy who is two or more spots from the top at a specific position based on my team needs.

Given that I put little stock in positional rankings, it follows that I think big boards are nonsense. Your first couple of picks should come from the big board and your personal preferences. After that, you really ought to be building by team-specific needs such as position and category rather than whether or not Player X is 43rd-ranked and Player Y is 68th-ranked. If Player Y is better for your team, and you're not very confident he'll be available for your next pick, then select Player Y.

Mark Himmelstein: In previous years, have you noticed you have a penchant for finding anything in particular on the waiver wire? Saves, perhaps? Or maybe outfielders who steal bases? Or pitchers with a good ERA but modest strikeout rate? Then focus on other areas in the draft, even if you think Brian Wilson, Brett Gardner, or Doug Fister is the best player left on the board.

The converse of this is true, as well. If you've found yourself repeatedly struggling to patch a particular type of hole using the waiver wire, that may be an area you should give extra priority on draft day, even in spite of your own rankings.

Jeff Gross: I think the problem with rankings if they don't indicate tiers. I internalize my valuations of players by tiers. There are "guys" who in my head are essentially fungible. That's how I view them. I like the rankings simply because it requires you to organize your thoughts some. Being a rankings slave, however, is silly.

Nick Fleder: I would urge readers to ask their trusted experts—if you want to call us that—to explain their mindsets in their specific rankings rather than blindly trusting. If my style fits yours, then you may want to take my top 200 to heart and use it as a cheat-sheet of sorts, but don't, by any means, trust any list over your gut.

This extends to a whole other side of drafting, one that Brad explained with the Player X and Player Y analogy: Do you feel comfortable taking someone way ahead of his Average Draft Position or rankings (the former often a byproduct of the latter, to a certain extent) if you really love 'em? Would you dare make Dee Gordon a seventh-round pick if he goes, on average, in the 10th?

There's a lot of strategy involved, and sometimes it takes a gutsy call—and don't forget that if everyone is playing from the same field, you may actually use that fallacy to your advantage by saying, "Hell, if everyone's gonna wait on a seventh-round player till the 10th, I can get some value in rounds seven to nine"—but as a general rule, cater to your gut rather than these rankings. Whew.

Brad Johnson: Then again, rankings were never meant for me. I have values for more than 500 players internalized. I can look at a sorted short list of names and pick the best one for my team without pause (okay, sometimes I need the full minute and a half to introspect). Rankings are for those who know the top 100 players and the guys on their favorite team but don't pay attention to an entire league.

So your choice to put stock in any rankings comes down to this: How many player values have you internalized? Is it 100? 200? 500? The more players you can analyze in detail without consulting a stats page, the less you should worry about rankings.

Mark Himmelstein: While these lists can be enlightening to discuss, we are not simply betting on which players are going to perform the best in a vacuum. We are playing a dynamic game based on the outcomes of another dynamic game. We are making decisions that are based on previous decisions and which in turn will influence future decisions, all of which are mixing and mingling with 11 other people's decisions.

That means strategy, tactics, creativity, self evaluation, evaluation of opponents and all that other fun stuff that's really what makes fantasy baseball such a fascinating game. It also means too much precision can be a sin. Adaptivity and good judgment will trump precision nine times out of 10.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:12am

This week in (fantasy) baseball 2/20-2/26

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Ryan Braun is back

Who knew that a late delivery to the FedEx man could have such significant fantasy implications? As red-faced major league officials scramble to revisit the sport’s methods of policing performance enhancing drug usage, fantasy owners celebrate the exoneration of Ryan Braun, who instantly returns to the first round of every mixed-league draft this season.

Braun last year was a five-category demon, as he compiled career highs in steals (33), RBIs (111) and batting average (.332) while slugging 33 home runs and 111 RBIs. He’ll likely miss Prince Fielder’s protection, but hopefully Aramis Ramirez can provide some semblance of continuity out of the Milwaukee cleanup spot.

Baseball might be a sport where even the best hitters bat only once every nine times, and yet, a presence like Braun is felt throughout an entire game. For guys like Ramirez, Rickie Weeks, Corey Hart and Mat Gamel, Braun’s gravitational pull at the center of the order will keep their stats inflated and help bring run support to the starting rotation.

Braun will, of course, have to deal with a summer of people calling him a cheater, so we’ll see how thick his skin is. But assuming the 28-year-old has stayed in shape during the offseason, it doesn’t appear he’ll miss any spring training time and will be in his MVP form to start the 2012 season.

Less thrilled about Braun’s return are probably Norichika Aoki, a three-time Japanese league batting champ acquired by Milwaukee over the offseason, and Carlos Gomez, both of whom stood to benefit from the extra playing time offered by Braun’s absence. Neither necessarily promised much in the way of fantasy aside from one-category production, but they’re definitely going to be relegated for use in only deeper leagues now, assuming Nyjer Morgan holds down the center field starting gig.

Chris Perez likely to miss start of season

The Indians’ closer hurt his left oblique last week and now will miss four to six weeks. There’s an outside chance he could return by Opening Day, but it’s probably safe to go ahead and start looking for backup options.

Perez’s most likely replacement is Vinnie Pestano, who put together a 2.32 ERA, 1.048 WHIP and an eye-popping 12.2 K/9 in 62 innings last year, his first full season. Pestano, 27, closed games throughout his minor-league career, so he should be a dependable option in deeper mixed leagues.

The better question is whether Pestano can acclimate himself to the role well enough to steal the job from Perez. Despite making the All-Star team and saving 90 percent of his opportunities last year, Perez compiled a mediocre 5.9 K/9, and both his FIP (4.27) and xFIP (5.01) were well above his 3.32 ERA. When healthy, Perez is a decent option, but Pestano certainly offers more upside if he can earn the full-time gig.

Raul Ibanez to round out Yankees' DH platoon

At 39, Raul Ibanez might not be getting any younger, but he was still fit enough last year to crush 20 home runs and collect 84 RBIs. His .245 average, the lowest full-season mark of his career, is a reasonable cause for concern, but it was also diminished by a .268 BABIP, more than 30 points below his career average.

Ibanez’s impact will be blunted by the amount of playing time he receives, as he’ll join Andruw Jones in a DH platoon in New York. But he’s coming to a place that, according to Stat Corner, boosts left-handed home runs by nearly 30 percent more than Citizens Bank Park. For a guy who’s a dead pull-hitter, he could be someone worth using in deeper leagues as a platoon man. Let’s just hope he stays healthy.

Manny Ramirez, A's agree to minor-league deal

Manny might not be the fantasy stud he was in his heyday, but he could have an impact in deeper leagues once he returns from his 50-game suspension. But he’s 39 years old, and would likely have to siphon off at-bats from Seth Smith or Chris Carter at the DH spot for playing time. Still, it’s hard to turn your back on one of the best hitters of the past 20 years, and plenty of faded stars, from Frank Thomas to Mike Piazza, have found playing time and ways to make a fantasy impact in Oakland.

Other odds and ends from around MLB

• Joel Zumuya's faulty right elbow is acting up again, as an MRI revealed a torn ulnar collateral ligament. That means he'll be gone for the rest of this season, which is too bad, since had he been healthy, he might have been a dark-horse candidate to pick up saves for the Twins.

• Speaking of injury-prone players, Grady Sizemore strained his lower back earlier this month, and we learned this week he'll miss Opening Day and does not have a firm return date. Of course, you have only yourself to blame if this comes as a surprise, as Sizemore has appeared in only 210 games from 2009-11. He's still only 29, so there's hope he'll return sooner rather than later as he works to find the magic that once made him one of fantasy's best players.

• Trying to rehab from a shoulder injury, Jon Garland did not take his physical examination last week, thus voiding his minor-league deal with Cleveland.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:11am

Random rankings thoughts

Since we started the THT rankings process, I’ve learned two things. Rankings don’t mean anything because they don’t take into context roster formation, inflation/deflation, or any other variables that render themselves during the draft process. You should only use rankings as a frame of reference. I wouldn’t even recommend using them as a base for drafting because everything changes at the draft table, even down to a silly list.

For example, I wouldn’t draft Johan Santana based on my rankings, but if my team conditions favor an ERA upside play, then there may not be a better, cheaper option than Santana. I obviously would pull the trigger no matter my previous feelings or, more importantly, my rankings.

The other thing I learned is that I am fascinated by standard deviation in “expert” rankings. I will spend the most time on this topic because I think it has a real use for you as well as my mindless musings.

Basically, for all you non-mathletes out there, standard deviation is the movement from the mean (average). Thanks to Fantasy Pros , we can actually look at how the greatest minds in the industry feel about a player, even if it’s in an arbitrary ranking. I firmly believe the standard deviation table may be of more use than the overall rankings list itself.

One of the biggest question marks I have when I go into a draft is how other managers truly value players. Obviously, I feel pretty confident about the players I want and how I’m going to go about getting them. The unknown is how the other managers feel about those same players.

By looking at the standard deviation, we are able to understand draft volatility a little bit better than we may have ever before. If a player has an extreme movement from the "expert" consensus thought, then there’s a chance that somebody in your league may share the positive/negative feelings surrounding the player.

Understanding a player with extreme volatility could be a huge bonus for a manager that knows how to use this information properly. I like using a volatile player early in the nomination process of an auction draft. The idea is that the draft room will either overspend or underspend. Either way, that benefits you. People, this is good stuff. I hope you are paying attention.

Here is what I’m going to call the “Kipnis Effect”. Another benefit of using standard deviation as a draft tool may be the way it can enhance your strategy towards certain players that you feel favorably about. For example, take a look at Jason Kipnis. He ranges from 62 overall all the way to 250 with a deviation from the mean of 50.4.

Looking a little further into who has him ranked where, Kipnis becomes an even more interesting case. His ranking amongst individual experts is down at 163 at its lowest. The 174 and 250 rankings are that of CBS Sports and ESPN’s site rankings, respectively. I take this to mean that Kipnis will inherently be cheaper on these sites.

There have been studies, I believe performed by Rotoauthority or Baseball HQ, that confirm draft prices are dictated by site rankings. So if you like Kipnis at 62 overall, you won’t have to spend nearly that much to get him. This is all assuming you aren’t drafting with Kipnis himself or someone related to Kipnis or someone that’s crushing on Kipnis. Here are some other players I found experiencing the Kipnis Effect: Alejandro De Aza, Seth Smith, and J.P. Arencibia.

Just like extreme deviation is important, I think no deviation at all has equal value. Assuming multiple sources provide the same rating, you can have a better idea of what the room is willing to pay for that particular player. I don’t think there would be a more valuable tool than to know nearly every move my opponents are going to make before they make it.

It’s not as easy to garner useful information off non-deviating rankings since most of the pertaining players are the earlier-round selections where consensus thought tends to reign supreme, or they are found in the last three hundred where the expert rankings become fewer. If you focus on the guys in the forty-and-beyond range, you might find a little more useful consistency.

For example, David Price has the lowest deviation of 8.5 with a consensus ranking of 47. I think that you can expect Price to stay in this general area of drafts. For me, a guy that likes Price as a fantasy ace this year, this information is priceless. I can safely assume I will be able to draft him as the 40th player and still find value without much risk of losing him to other owners.

Now, this practice may be reserved more towards snake drafts, but the principle can be used in auction, as well, if you focus your attention on the positional rankings.

Put a pen to paper and map out the players you want on your fantasy team. Winning fantasy baseball isn’t necessarily how much you know, it’s how much work you are willing to put into winning. I believe there’s less pre-work that needs to be done in a snake draft than an auction draft. So, using standard deviation in these postional rankings should help with designing tiers more efficiently in auction leagues. Effective use of tiers is all up to a particular manager’s roster-building strategy.

I actually learned through this exercise with rankings deviation that there is a strong chance I will draft Carlos Gonzalez. Upon looking at where I have him ranked in contrast with my colleagues, I apparently like him more, and he will baseline a tier I fully expect to draft early in all leagues, including my snake and auction leagues.

I must close with my final thoughts about the whole THT rankings process. I always loved my own personal rankings as a basis for thought and have never had to be held accountable for their accuracy. So this whole exercise was new and different. However, I didn’t realize how difficult it would be.

I spend an average of two hours a day totally dedicated to reading, analyzing, and researching fantasy baseball. For these rankings I spent at least six to eight hours of concentrated thinking. Even with that effort, I don’t think they are anywhere near where they should be. I pride myself on the knowledge base I’ve built, which is why I began writing for THT in the first place.

The ranking of players made me realize that any one person’s personal rankings are fatally flawed. We are influenced by the baseline rankings provided by Fantasy Pros. We are slaves to our own bias. I found myself driven to the point of frustration over whether Colby Rasmus should be higher than Brandon Belt when it really doesn’t matter.

Furthermore, I know that my fellow writers would agree that rankings do not and will never account for shifts in draft momentum, nor do they adapt themselves to the fluidity of your lineup. Rankings are cold and dead. Tiers are better, but I don’t think that being constrained by making sure a specific tier is targeted is that much better, though I like the idea of building talent tiers. I figure the name of the game in fantasy baseball is all about accruing stats in the most efficient manner.

Obviously, the most efficient manner to accrue stats is to draft the perfect team and never have to manage or do anything. Now, that wouldn’t be fun, but I started thinking about all the talent monikers we bestow on different types of fantasy players. Now, this is just in the early stages of my thought process, but shouldn’t it be smarter, especially in deeper leagues, to draft based on a specific type of talent rather than a blank name ranking?

Take the famed “five-tool” fantasy player. You could easily tier that out with Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gonzalez, Justin Upton, and Jacoby Ellsbury in the first tier. Follow that up with an Ian Kinsler, Hanley Ramirez, Curtis Granderson, David Wright, and Andrew McCutchen tier. Then you have the likes of Brett Lawrie, Hunter Pence, and such. You get the idea.

This exercise can be repeated with power, speed, average/contact, RBI (batting order placement), prospects, wins (good teams), strikeouts, ERA/WHIP, and even five-tool pitchers (do-everything talents). I believe that I have always done this type of rationalization in drafts before now, but it was always done in my head as I was making quick decisions. All this list-making made me really feel like some lists are more beneficial than others.

Do these kinds of rankings rather than the ones we did. The Baseball Forecaster by Ron Shandler does a decent job of presenting data in previous stats-based tables that mimic the kind of tiers I’m talking about. However, you have to build these talent tiers yourself.

No one can account for the future, and no one can account for the daily changes in fantasy. Nailing down where to put which player in which talent tier can only come with research. I hope over the month of March to focus on building some of these talent tiers for you guys. Until then, happy spring training to all.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 5:10am

Friday, February 24, 2012

Staff rankings: Top 100-200

See part one, published earlier today, for 100-200.

2012 Overall Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Daniel Hudson	82	97	130	102	101	view
Billy Butler	110	107	125	77	102	view
Alexei Ramirez	118	108	105	92	103	view
Freddie Freeman	108	72	121	125	104	view
Brandon Beachy	106	104	93	123	105	view
David Ortiz	100	115	81	132	106	view
Tommy Hanson	102	120	103	108	107	view
Miguel Montero	115	116	108	95	108	view
Carlos Beltran	127	90	111	107	109	view
Gio Gonzalez	124	106	119	91	110	view
Matt Garza	107	124	98	117	111	view
Josh Beckett	114	119	101	115	112	view
Jordan Zimmermann	126	118	129	81	113	view
Ryan Howard	112	96	136	114	114	view
Andre Ethier	119	117	123	100	115	view
Logan Morrison	103	135	122	101	116	view
Derek Jeter	120	151	83	110	117	view
Ike Davis	121	142	120	85	118	view
Michael Cuddyer	93	170	92	113	119	view
Dee Gordon	109	111	134	129	120	view
Brian Wilson	122	109	133	121	121	view
Drew Storen	128	125	97	137	122	view
Chris B. Young	111	147	110	119	123	view
Jayson Werth	136	105	137	111	124	view
Dustin Ackley	139	114	114	124	125	view
Cameron Maybin	96	122	112	175	126	view
Nick Markakis	143	95	139	138	127	view
Cory Luebke	116	84	144	173	128	view
Anibal Sanchez	123	152	140	104	129	view
Ichiro Suzuki	130	148	90	162	130	view
Paul Goldschmidt	105	143	135	148	131	view
Mark Reynolds	149	134	117	133	132	view
Alex Avila	150	164	109	116	133	view
Ryan Madson	132	131	150	128	134	view
Heath Bell	155	102	152	136	135	view
Chris Carpenter	138	127	143	146	136	view
Joel Hanrahan	125	174	131	127	137	view
J.J. Putz	113	171	132	144	138	view
J.J. Hardy	184	140	116	120	139	view
Ricky Romero	141	123	166	135	140	view
Ubaldo Jimenez	146	136	128	156	141	view
Max Scherzer	129	137	142	158	142	view
Brandon Morrow	142	133	141	150	143	view
Danny Espinosa	153	141	191	87	144	view
Mike Moustakas	154	130	153	151	145	view
Jose Valverde	152	129	157	166	146	view
Andrew Bailey	169	138	156	142	147	view
Jhonny Peralta	185	228	106	122	148	view
Neil Walker	131	149	148	187	149	view
Shaun Marcum	133	132	197	153	150	view
Erick Aybar	168	155	146	147	151	view
Jemile Weeks	144	144	–	134	152	view
Kenley Jansen	167	176	118	168	153	view
Nick Swisher	137	169	155	172	154	view
David Freese	151	150	147	185	155	view
Rafael Betancourt	163	173	171	131	156	view
Sergio Santos	159	201	149	139	157	view
Jeff Francoeur	164	153	138	209	158	view
Jeremy Hellickson	172	160	170	155	159	view
Coco Crisp	179	139	162	184	160	view
Jaime Garcia	145	202	168	154	161	view
Jason Motte	173	185	164	149	162	view
Wilson Ramos	147	161	–	169	163	view
Kendrys Morales	187	146	145	239	164	view
Peter Bourjos	162	175	182	163	165	view
Huston Street	189	191	158	145	166	view
Torii Hunter	165	247	127	208	167	view
Adam Lind	191	145	159	250	168	view
Emilio Bonifacio	134	188	174	210	169	view
Johnny Cueto	176	126	–	213	170	view
Tim Hudson	148	163	193	214	171	view
Matt Joyce	192	220	161	152	172	view
Joakim Soria	177	178	151	201	173	view
Yadier Molina	190	157	–	159	174	view
Neftali Feliz	–	128	179	245	175	view
Jordan Walden	–	195	173	140	176	view
Geovany Soto	–	267	178	130	177	view
Carlos Marmol	182	158	172	203	178	view
Chris Sale	199	159	167	189	179	view
Kelly Johnson	161	172	190	192	180	view
J.P. Arencibia	156	199	–	160	181	view
Mark Trumbo	170	193	154	238	182	view
Dexter Fowler	196	166	184	174	183	view
Ervin Santana	135	244	–	186	184	view
Jhoulys Chacin	203	156	–	167	185	view
Hiroki Kuroda	201	154	194	177	186	view
Wandy Rodriguez	–	167	–	161	187	view
Russell Martin	166	284	–	165	188	view
Stephen Drew	198	194	–	141	189	view
Joe Nathan	195	177	165	–	190	view
Derek Holland	180	223	169	188	191	view
Edwin Encarnacion	157	215	–	182	192	view
Colby Rasmus	160	210	–	180	193	view
Gaby Sanchez	194	165	–	194	194	view
Brandon McCarthy	186	168	–	223	195	view
Clay Buchholz	–	229	186	171	196	view
James Loney	–	212	–	157	197	view
Brandon League	–	189	187	183	198	view
Angel Pagan	158	208	–	–	199	view
Jose Tabata	202	257	183	176	200	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:24am

Staff rankings: Top 1-100

The following writers have ranked their top 200: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. I speak for at least Josh Shepardson and me when I say that we will continue to update our rankings on FantasyPros and Twitter, perhaps, throughout spring training and the coming month (and change).

Keep on the lookout for updates, and, as always, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round. Our apologies for having to split up the top 200 into two articles.

2012 Overall Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Miguel Cabrera	1	1	1	1	1	view
Albert Pujols	4	2	2	2	2	view
Jose Bautista	3	6	3	3	3	view
Matt Kemp	2	3	4	7	4	view
Joey Votto	7	4	6	5	5	view
Troy Tulowitzki	9	5	5	4	6	view
Jacoby Ellsbury	6	10	11	8	7	view
Evan Longoria	14	8	7	11	8	view
Robinson Cano	8	11	13	10	9	view
Justin Upton	10	9	10	15	10	view
Adrian Gonzalez	15	13	9	9	11	view
Prince Fielder	13	14	8	12	12	view
Carlos Gonzalez	11	7	17	17	13	view
Dustin Pedroia	18	17	12	13	14	view
Ian Kinsler	12	19	15	19	15	view
Curtis Granderson	21	18	16	16	16	view
Clayton Kershaw	17	15	22	22	17	view
Mike Stanton	16	24	23	14	18	view
Roy Halladay	19	16	21	21	19	view
Hanley Ramirez	24	20	14	20	20	view
Justin Verlander	20	12	38	23	21	view
Mark Teixeira	26	22	20	26	22	view
Cliff Lee	22	21	25	27	23	view
Andrew McCutchen	23	23	24	25	24	view
Ryan Braun	5	45	45	6	25	view
Adrian Beltre	29	28	18	29	26	view
Jose Reyes	45	25	19	18	27	view
Tim Lincecum	27	27	26	40	28	view
David Wright	30	26	33	38	29	view
Mike Napoli	34	37	30	35	30	view
CC Sabathia	37	31	37	34	31	view
Josh Hamilton	46	39	31	24	32	view
Felix Hernandez	28	29	39	44	33	view
Ryan Zimmerman	41	41	32	28	34	view
Matt Holliday	38	44	35	30	35	view
Cole Hamels	31	35	46	36	36	view
Brett Lawrie	35	48	27	46	37	view
Nelson Cruz	32	38	44	43	38	view
Carlos Santana	40	49	29	45	39	view
Desmond Jennings	33	65	28	41	40	view
Hunter Pence	39	33	68	31	41	view
Jered Weaver	25	32	55	60	42	view
Starlin Castro	44	52	40	39	43	view
Pablo Sandoval	49	61	34	32	44	view
Dan Uggla	60	30	42	56	45	view
Zack Greinke	58	46	36	49	46	view
Paul Konerko	54	36	58	42	47	view
Eric Hosmer	48	34	53	58	48	view
David Price	50	42	51	53	49	view
Ben Zobrist	51	57	41	48	50	view
Jay Bruce	68	40	43	51	51	view
Brandon Phillips	55	58	64	33	52	view
Alex Rodriguez	59	59	57	37	53	view
Dan Haren	36	43	79	63	54	view
Jon Lester	64	47	56	61	55	view
Brian McCann	56	55	66	54	56	view
Michael Young	52	51	84	50	57	view
Madison Bumgarner	53	78	47	62	58	view
Stephen Strasburg	47	74	52	68	59	view
Kevin Youkilis	72	60	60	52	60	view
Asdrubal Cabrera	43	66	62	74	61	view
Elvis Andrus	61	53	82	55	62	view
Michael Morse	69	56	70	59	63	view
Rickie Weeks	70	62	65	57	64	view
Matt Cain	42	50	100	65	65	view
Shane Victorino	57	68	74	64	66	view
Alex Gordon	75	63	50	76	67	view
B.J. Upton	62	76	49	79	68	view
Yovani Gallardo	87	73	48	78	69	view
Michael Bourn	66	54	91	75	70	view
Lance Berkman	74	79	69	70	71	view
Craig Kimbrel	65	87	61	82	72	view
Matt Moore	73	83	77	67	73	view
Jimmy Rollins	79	70	63	93	74	view
Adam Wainwright	77	71	95	71	75	view
James Shields	85	80	88	66	76	view
Matt Wieters	88	94	54	84	77	view
Buster Posey	95	69	71	86	78	view
Ian Kennedy	67	89	99	72	79	view
Yu Darvish	80	86	104	69	80	view
Corey Hart	81	77	73	112	81	view
Jason Heyward	76	92	89	90	82	view
Joe Mauer	91	64	107	88	83	view
C.J. Wilson	78	85	94	97	84	view
Adam Jones	63	81	113	98	85	view
Carl Crawford	86	93	85	94	86	view
Aramis Ramirez	71	91	59	143	87	view
Howard Kendrick	94	75	124	73	88	view
Shin-Soo Choo	83	121	75	89	89	view
Jason Kipnis	98	101	86	83	90	view
Chase Utley	140	67	115	47	91	view
John Axford	84	100	78	118	92	view
Jesus Montero	101	112	72	96	93	view
Josh Johnson	117	82	102	80	94	view
Jonathan Papelbon	92	113	76	106	95	view
Michael Pineda	97	98	87	105	96	view
Mat Latos	104	103	80	103	97	view
Drew Stubbs	99	99	67	126	98	view
Brett Gardner	90	88	126	99	99	view
Mariano Rivera	89	110	96	109	100	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 2:01am

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Staff rankings: Relief pitchers

The staff rankings by position end with our top 35 relief pitchers for the 2012 season. Don't fret, though! A top 200 will come soon (hint, starting tomorrow). The following writers have ranked their top 35 relievers: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings.

Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Relief Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Craig Kimbrel	2	3	1	2	1	view
John Axford	3	5	3	5	2	view
Jonathan Papelbon	5	8	2	3	3	view
Mariano Rivera	4	6	4	4	4	view
Brian Wilson	8	7	9	6	5	view
Matt Moore	1	1	–	1	6	view
Drew Storen	10	9	5	11	7	view
Heath Bell	13	4	13	10	8	view
Joel Hanrahan	9	18	7	7	9	view
Ryan Madson	11	12	11	8	10	view
J.J. Putz	6	16	8	15	11	view
Cory Luebke	7	2	23	20	12	view
Jose Valverde	12	11	15	18	13	view
Andrew Bailey	17	13	14	14	14	view
Kenley Jansen	16	19	6	19	15	view
Rafael Betancourt	15	17	20	9	16	view
Sergio Santos	14	26	10	12	17	view
Joakim Soria	19	21	12	23	18	view
Jason Motte	18	22	18	17	19	view
Huston Street	21	24	16	16	20	view
Carlos Marmol	20	14	21	24	21	view
Chris Sale	24	15	24	22	22	view
Jordan Walden	26	25	22	13	23	view
Joe Nathan	22	20	19	35	24	view
Neftali Feliz	28	10	26	36	25	view
Brandon League	27	23	25	21	26	view
Kyle Farnsworth	23	27	17	37	27	view
Frank Francisco	25	32	28	–	28	view
Matt Thornton	33	38	27	26	29	view
Addison Reed	35	43	29	25	30	view
Jim Johnson	37	28	32	27	31	view
Jonny Venters	30	41	–	28	32	view
Matt Capps	29	31	30	–	33	view
David Robertson	36	–	–	29	34	view
Daniel Bard	–	29	–	34	35	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Top 200

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:15am

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Staff rankings: Starting pitchers, part two

We promised more starting pitchers, and below we follow through with our rankings of starting pitchers, 35-70. The following writers have ranked their top 70: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. I speak for at least Josh Shepardson and myself when I say that we will continue to update our rankings on FantasyPros and Twitter, perhaps, throughout Spring Training and the coming month (and change). Keep on the lookout for updates, and, as always, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Starting Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Ricky Romero	39	34	40	35	36	view
Chris Carpenter	38	37	38	36	37	view
Brandon Morrow	40	39	36	37	38	view
Ubaldo Jimenez	42	40	32	41	39	view
Max Scherzer	36	41	37	42	40	view
Shaun Marcum	37	38	49	38	41	view
Jaime Garcia	41	54	41	39	42	view
Jeremy Hellickson	45	45	43	40	43	view
Johnny Cueto	44	36	55	54	44	view
Tim Hudson	43	47	47	55	45	view
Hiroki Kuroda	49	43	48	48	46	view
Jhoulys Chacin	50	44	59	45	47	view
Derek Holland	48	58	42	51	48	view
Wandy Rodriguez	52	48	51	43	49	view
Clay Buchholz	59	61	46	46	50	view
Bud Norris	68	77	52	44	51	view
Luke Hochevar	54	73	44	–	52	view
Chad Billingsley	63	81	45	64	53	view
Ted Lilly	46	66	–	67	54	view
John Danks	56	46	64	–	55	view
Ervin Santana	47	63	54	50	56	view
Ryan Dempster	–	85	63	49	57	view
Brandon McCarthy	51	49	53	57	58	view
Erik Bedard	66	75	50	59	59	view
Colby Lewis	62	50	61	65	60	view
Roy Oswalt	57	51	57	52	61	view
Vance Worley	70	52	–	–	62	view
Jair Jurrjens	61	53	–	61	63	view
Doug Fister	53	55	60	–	64	view
Edwin Jackson	60	59	–	53	65	view
Scott Baker	55	57	68	58	66	view
Mike Minor	67	72	56	60	67	view
Justin Masterson	58	60	69	56	68	view
Trevor Cahill	64	56	67	62	69	view
Johan Santana	72	67	58	70	70	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Relievers

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:09am

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Staff rankings: Starting pitchers, part one

Phew. Position players are taken care of. What's next? Logically, starting pitchers, so below, we present the top 35 (more to come tomorrow).

The following writers have ranked their top 70: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Starting Pitchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Roy Halladay	2	3	1	1	1	view
Clayton Kershaw	1	2	2	2	2	view
Justin Verlander	3	1	7	3	3	view
Cliff Lee	4	4	3	4	4	view
Tim Lincecum	6	5	5	7	5	view
CC Sabathia	10	7	6	5	6	view
Felix Hernandez	7	6	8	8	7	view
Cole Hamels	8	9	9	6	8	view
Jered Weaver	5	8	14	11	9	view
Zack Greinke	15	12	4	9	10	view
David Price	13	10	12	10	11	view
Dan Haren	9	11	17	14	12	view
Madison Bumgarner	14	18	11	13	13	view
Jon Lester	16	13	15	12	14	view
Stephen Strasburg	12	17	13	18	15	view
Matt Cain	11	14	26	15	16	view
Yovani Gallardo	24	16	10	22	17	view
Matt Moore	18	21	16	17	18	view
Adam Wainwright	19	15	23	20	19	view
James Shields	23	19	20	16	20	view
Ian Kennedy	17	25	25	21	21	view
C.J. Wilson	20	23	22	26	22	view
Yu Darvish	21	24	30	19	23	view
Mat Latos	27	28	18	28	24	view
Michael Pineda	25	27	19	30	25	view
Josh Johnson	32	20	28	23	26	view
Daniel Hudson	22	26	34	27	27	view
Brandon Beachy	28	29	21	34	28	view
Tommy Hanson	26	33	29	31	29	view
Gio Gonzalez	34	30	31	25	30	view
Matt Garza	29	35	24	33	31	view
Josh Beckett	30	32	27	32	32	view
Jordan Zimmermann	35	31	33	24	33	view
Cory Luebke	31	22	39	47	34	view
Anibal Sanchez	33	42	35	29	35	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Starting pitchers, part two

Posted by Nick Fleder at 2:07am

Players being over-drafted

It’s the middle of February, and by this point in the draft season we are starting to get a much clearer picture of how things will shake out at the end of March. Most high-stakes fantasy players have already dabbled in a slow draft or three, testing out the waters and getting their own feel for the flow of the player inventory.

Let me preface this by saying that all players have their own strategies, preferences and levels of risk tolerance when approaching a draft. I come from the belief that you should avoid unnecessary risk, especially in the foundation rounds of a draft. I lean toward consistent and proven production when assembling the core of my teams, avoiding players that have huge injury concerns or are unproven producers. I’ll slant toward players with more potential and higher upside later in the draft.

When I look over the most recent ADP list, a few names stand out to me as players I believe are being drafted too high. This isn’t to say that they’re going to fall flat on their faces or won’t return a profit at their particular draft slot. They are just players who I believe carry too much risk where they are being taken.

So you can peruse the list yourself, Shawn Childs has graciously posted a copy of the most recent ADP report at Sportsdraftdaily.com.(http://sportsdraftdaily.com/2012/02/nfbc-15-team-league-adps/)

Curtis Granderson (ADP 14): Granderson put together an absolutely dynamic season in 2011, and helped lead many a team to league titles. He did show a marked improvement against left-handed pitching, but before we praise him for figuring out how to hit lefties, realize that there could be some small-sample-size bias in only 191 at-bats against them last year.

Granderson hit 41 homers, towering over his previous career high of 30 in 2009. His HR/FB rate jumped to 20.5 percent last year, well over his career rate of 13.9 percent. This signals that he is due for a regression in the homer run category. He also drove home 119 runs, after not driving in more than 74 in any previous season. I think expecting him to finish with more than 80-85 RBI is probably wishful thinking.

In addition, he’s a huge threat to be a drain on your team’s batting average. In the early rounds of a draft, I try to establish a solid average base for my team. A player with 600 at-bats of .260-.265 can weigh down your total team average.

Another red flag is that Granderson had his worst stolen base success rate of his career in 2011 (25/35, 71.5 percent). It’s generally accepted that anything under a 75 percent success rate is actually hurting the team, and could lead to decreased opportunities in the future. If there is an actual decline in speed that has led to the lower rate, he loses more of his value.

I have Granderson finishing with something close to .264 average/107 runs/ 27 homers/ 84 RBI/23 steals. While the numbers do look relatively solid across the board (minus the average), I think that there are many better options on the board at pick 14.

Josh Hamilton (ADP 27): Hamilton has all the talent in the world, and is capable of putting up monstrous offensive numbers. I’m not disputing that at all. He simply doesn’t fit into the plan of someone like me who's trying to avoid risk early on.

In Hamilton’s four years in Texas, he has averaged only 125 games played. That number drops to 114 games if you look at just the previous three seasons. He’s the type of guy who, if he manages to stay on the field for 150 games, can finish with first-round production. In all likelihood though, you’re looking at him missing nearly a quarter of the season.

In addition, how do you weigh his recent public relapse? Some don’t think it should change his draft position at all, but it’s obviously a factor that has to be considered. I have Hamilton finishing around .310 average/83 runs/27 homers/100 RBI /eight stolen bases provided that he gets 500 at-bats. He’s too risky for my taste in round two, but could gain some consideration if he falls further down the board.

Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP 53): Asdrubal finally made good on some of his promise and delivered massive returns for owners who took a chance on him in rounds 15-18 last year. After never hitting more than 11 homers in any professional season (major or minor leagues), he belted 25 long balls in 2011. His HR/FB rate was 13.3 percent last season, after never being higher than 6.7 percent before.

He’ll be only 26 this season, and the power was consistent over the two halves of 2011, but I still expect some regression. His average dropped as the season progressed; he hit only .246 after July 1. He may also see a decline in RBI opportunities, since he'll probably hit second the entire season with Shin-Soo Choo back in the lineup. I expect roughly .278 average/85 runs/18 homers/77 RBI/14 steals from Cabrera in 2011. While those are above-average numbers at a relatively weak position, I’m hesitant to pull the trigger in the fourth round.

Michael Pineda (ADP 89): Let me start by saying that I like Pineda. I’m grateful to him for pitching so well last year: I got him in the 19th round of the NFBC Main and he was a big part of leading my team to a league title. I just think that getting pushed up into the sixth round after the trade to the Yankees (and even the fifth in some drafts) is too high.

Yes, he will see a big increase in run support, and in wins, by joining the Yanks. Conversely though, he’s leaving the safe haven of Safeco Park and heading to one of the worst pitcher’s parks in the league. Pineda is a flyball pitcher (44.8 percent) whose HR/FB rate (9.0 percent last year) is sure to rise in New York. I think the addition in wins will be balanced out by his increase in ratios, putting his value to me as eighth or ninth round as a second or third starting pitcher.

Pushing him into the fifth or sixth round, he has to perform as an ace or high end second starter to return profit, and I just can’t place a high level of confidence in that happening. I have Pineda at 15 wins/3.60 ERA/1.15 WHIP/185 strikeouts. I also tend to be somewhat leery of young pitchers who rely so heavily on the slider (31.5 percent).

While it’s entirely possible that these players exceed my expectations and return profit even at their current picks, it’s not something that I will bet on. If you disagree with my assumptions or believe strongly in any of these players, leave your arguments here. I’d love to hear them.

Posted by Dave Shovein at 12:49am

Monday, February 20, 2012

Staff rankings: Outfield

Last week, you may have noticed our top 25 rankings of catchers, first basemen, second basemen, shortstop, and third basemen. Well, we're back, this time with the top 50 outfielders. The following writers have ranked their top 50: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly.

We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'. Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Outfielders Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Matt Kemp	1	1	1	2	1	view
Jose Bautista	2	2	2	1	2	view
Justin Upton	3	4	3	5	3	view
Jacoby Ellsbury	5	5	4	3	4	view
Carlos Gonzalez	4	3	6	7	5	view
Curtis Granderson	7	6	5	6	6	view
Mike Stanton	6	8	7	4	7	view
Andrew McCutchen	8	7	8	9	8	view
Josh Hamilton	14	11	10	8	9	view
Matt Holliday	11	13	11	10	10	view
Nelson Cruz	9	10	13	14	11	view
Hunter Pence	12	9	18	11	12	view
Desmond Jennings	10	19	9	13	13	view
Ryan Braun	13	14	14	12	14	view
Jay Bruce	18	12	12	16	15	view
Ben Zobrist	21	17	19	15	16	view
Michael Morse	20	16	21	17	17	view
B.J. Upton	16	23	15	22	18	view
Shane Victorino	15	20	23	18	19	view
Alex Gordon	22	18	16	21	20	view
Michael Bourn	19	15	28	20	21	view
Lance Berkman	23	21	20	19	22	view
Adam Jones	17	25	32	25	23	view
Jason Heyward	24	28	26	24	24	view
Corey Hart	25	24	22	33	25	view
Shin-Soo Choo	26	34	24	23	26	view
Carl Crawford	27	29	25	31	27	view
Drew Stubbs	30	31	17	36	28	view
Brett Gardner	28	26	35	26	29	view
Carlos Beltran	34	27	30	30	30	view
Andre Ethier	33	33	34	28	31	view
Logan Morrison	31	36	33	29	32	view
Howard Kendrick	36	22	46	27	33	view
Chris B. Young	32	39	29	35	34	view
Cameron Maybin	29	35	31	43	35	view
Jayson Werth	37	32	38	32	36	view
Ichiro Suzuki	35	40	27	39	37	view
Nick Markakis	40	30	40	37	38	view
Michael Cuddyer	39	44	37	34	39	view
Nick Swisher	38	43	42	41	40	view
Coco Crisp	48	37	45	46	41	view
Jeff Francoeur	47	41	39	–	42	view
Peter Bourjos	45	45	52	40	43	view
Torii Hunter	46	74	36	–	44	view
Matt Joyce	52	65	44	38	45	view
Dexter Fowler	53	42	54	42	46	view
Emilio Bonifacio	42	50	47	–	47	view
Colby Rasmus	43	62	66	45	48	view
Kendrys Morales	67	38	–	–	49	view
Mark Trumbo	49	53	41	–	50	view

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Starting pitchers, part one

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:31am

This week in (fantasy) baseball 2/13-2/19

A’s swoop in to sign Yoenis Cespedes to four-year deal

We should have known better than to underestimate Billy Beane.

It was all but certain, didn’t you know, that Cuban phenom Yoenis Cespedes was going to sign with the Marlins, make Miami his new home and welcome the hero’s adoration sure to be showered upon him by an adoring Latino community.

And yet, when the Marlins wouldn’t budge on a guaranteed sixth year, Beane locked up the 26-year-old with a contract that will allow the outfielder to re-enter free agency still in the prime of his career, making a relatively low-risk move that brings much-needed outfield depth to Oakland.

So it’s another victory for Beane, as he once again outsmarts the baseball world. For fantasy owners, however, Cespedes arrives as an intriguing but not-quite-elite option as he gets ready to play American baseball.

If you haven’t read Clay Davenport’s projection of how Cespedes’ abilities will play in the majors, do yourself a favor and check it out. To save you the time, Davenport’s equalization of Cespedes’ 2011 season in Cuba would have resulted in a .245/.311/.469 line, and he believes the outfielder has the potential to slam more than 25 home runs. Whether he reaches double-digit stolen bases remains to be seen, as does his ability to face big-league pitching.

He also won’t be granted any favors playing half his games in Oakland’s coliseum, a place that Stat Corner says suppresses right-handed home runs by 20 percent. And even if Cespedes hits in the middle of the A’s order, table setters Jemile Weeks and Coco Crisp are not complete players, and the less said about the offensive potential of Josh Reddick, Seth Smith and Scott Sizemore, the better.

But hey, Cespedes will be an exciting player, one with the upside to provide significant fantasy value in the home run department. The Hardball Times’ Oliver projection system foresees a .266/.308/.447 line with around 20 home runs, an imperfect but still valuable addition to any mixed-league fantasy roster.

Just make sure not to overvalue him on draft day, and don’t look for complete production, especially in his first major league season.

Pirates-Yankees trade is finally completed as A.J. Burnett goes to Pittsburgh

It took some doing, but at long last, the Bombers were able to unload A.J. Burnett, the inconsistent, tattooed purveyor of cream-pie facials (think you’d ever read that line in the New York Times?) to the Pirates Friday in exchange for two minor-league players. It’s probably a safe guess that Burnett’s value will improve as he bolts the AL East, and especially Yankee Stadium, where he’d allowed 42 home runs over the past three seasons.

Burnett, 35, averaged nearly 200 innings during his three years in New York, even if he compiled a dreadful 4.79 ERA, 1.447 WHIP and 1.2 HR/9. But even as his fastball has lost more than three mph since 2007, he was still able to strike out batters to the tune of a 8.2 K/9 rate last year.

Fantasy owners need not be reminded of Burnett’s mediocrity, but I’ll go ahead and remind everyone that last year he posted a 5.15 ERA and allowed 31 home runs. To be fair, both his FIP (4.77) and xFIP (3.86) were better than his ERA, and a 17 percent HR/FB rate was well above his career mark, and certainly cruel considering he posted his lowest flyball percentage since 2008.

For a guy with a nearly 49 percent groundball rate, Pittsburgh’s infield defense could be a cause for concern, though there’s hope that newly-acquired shortstop Clint Barmes will solidify things in the infield. And, hopefully, Burnett will find PNC Park to be a much more agreeable place to pitch than Yankee Stadium, and he’ll certainly benefit from facing a division that just lost Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.

Of course, Burnett won’t receive the same kind of bullpen support he did in the Bronx, but Joel Hanrahan has emerged as one of the best closers in the National League, so he might get some support there.

What does this all mean? Probably not much more than you already know. Burnett isn’t going to be appearing on too many Cy Young ballots this season. But he’s definitely moving to a more favorable environment and could be an interesting late-round sleeper in deeper leagues.

Jon Garland agrees to minor-league contract with Indians

Ever since international man of mystery Fausto Carmona (or is that Roberto Hernandez Heredia?) was arrested in the Dominican Republic for allegedly using a false identity, the Indians have been looking to solidify the team’s pitching depth, leading to last week’s minor-league signing of 32-year-old Jon Garland. Heading into last year, Garland was a model of consistency, averaging more than 32 starts a season dating back to 2002. But shoulder problems ruined his 2011 campaign, limiting him to nine outings before July surgery destroyed the rest of his season.

Considering Garland’s pedestrian career numbers (4.32 ERA, 1.380 WHIP, 4.9 K/9), his shoulder’s uncertainty will likely limit him to AL-only leagues at season’s outset. But this is a guy who twice has won 18 games in a season and still maintains a .526 career winning percentage, so it’d be unfair to completely write him off in fantasy.

Where would he fit into Cleveland’s rotation? Barring disaster, Ubaldo Jimenez, Justin Masterson, Josh Tomlin and probably Derek Lowe will have jobs throughout the season. Kevin Slowey, another guy coming off an injury season, is currently penciled in as the Indians’ No. 5 starter, but a strong spring from Garland—or a poor spring from Slowey, depending on how you want to look at it—could change all that.

Of course, Garland is scheduled to undergo a physical today, which will take a good look at his repaired shoulder and ultimately decide whether he’s up to snuff.

So while we’re on this subject, David Huff (4.09 ERA, 1.421 WHIP in 10 starts last year) and Jeanmar Gomez (4.47, 1.509 in 10 starts), along with minor-leaguer Scott Barnes, could be in the mix, as well, though none of these guys would be as intriguing as 24-year-old Zach McAllister. A 6-foot-6, 240-pound right-hander, McAllister blazed his way through Triple-A last year, compiling a 12-3 record, 3.32 ERA and, perhaps most encouragingly, a 4.13 K/BB ratio.

What remains to be seen is whether manager Manny Acta is ready to hand the keys over to a rookie. Regardless, Garland figures to be in the conversation throughout the next month.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:30am

Friday, February 17, 2012

Staff rankings: Third base

We finish up the infield with the top 25 men at the hot corner. The staffers who ranked are Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'.

Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Third basemen rankings
Player name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Jose Bautista	1	1	1	1	1	compare
Evan Longoria	2	2	2	2	2	compare
Adrian Beltre	3	4	3	4	3	compare
Ryan Zimmerman	6	5	5	3	4	compare
David Wright	4	3	6	7	5	compare
Brett Lawrie	5	6	4	8	6	compare
Pablo Sandoval	7	10	7	5	7	compare
Alex Rodriguez	8	8	8	6	8	compare
Michael Young	9	7	11	10	9	compare
Kevin Youkilis	11	9	10	9	10	compare
Aramis Ramirez	10	11	9	12	11	compare
Mark Reynolds	12	12	12	11	12	compare
Mike Moustakas	13	14	14	13	13	compare
David Freese	14	13	13	15	14	compare
Edwin Encarnacion	16	17	15	14	15	compare
Emilio Bonifacio	15	15	17	19	16	compare
Chase Headley	19	20	16	16	17	compare
Martin Prado	17	16	18	20	18	compare
Ryan Roberts	18	18	20	17	19	compare
Chipper Jones	20	21	19	21	20	compare
Lonnie Chisenhall	21	19	21	–	21	compare
Daniel Murphy	–	22	25	22	22	compare
Casey McGehee	–	33	–	18	23	compare
Pedro Alvarez	24	–	22	–	24	compare
Danny Valencia	25	32	23	24	25	compare

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Next Monday... Outfield

Posted by Nick Fleder at 1:57am

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Staff rankings: Shortstop

We've made it through the right side of the infield and have touched upon the catchers as well. Next up are the enigmatic shortstops, ranked up to 25, below. The staffers who ranked are Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'.

Assume a 12-team, mixed league, with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round. A quick recap of the rankings we've already crossed off: Catcher, first base, and second base.

2012 Short Stops Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Troy Tulowitzki	1	1	1	1	1	compare
Hanley Ramirez	2	2	2	3	2	compare
Jose Reyes	4	3	3	2	3	compare
Starlin Castro	5	4	4	4	4	compare
Asdrubal Cabrera	3	6	5	6	5	compare
Elvis Andrus	6	5	7	5	6	compare
Jimmy Rollins	7	7	6	8	7	compare
Alexei Ramirez	9	8	9	7	8	compare
Derek Jeter	10	11	8	9	9	compare
Dee Gordon	8	9	12	12	10	compare
J.J. Hardy	13	10	11	10	11	compare
Erick Aybar	11	12	13	14	12	compare
Jhonny Peralta	15	15	10	11	13	compare
Emilio Bonifacio	12	13	14	17	14	compare
Stephen Drew	16	14	16	13	15	compare
Yunel Escobar	14	21	15	15	16	compare
Ian Desmond	19	17	18	18	17	compare
Zack Cozart	21	18	19	20	18	compare
Alcides Escobar	18	19	21	21	19	compare
Jed Lowrie	20	16	20	26	20	compare
Marco Scutaro	17	24	22	19	21	compare
Rafael Furcal	23	26	23	16	22	compare
Cliff Pennington	25	27	17	25	23	compare
Tyler Pastornicky	22	22	25	–	24	compare
Sean Rodriguez	–	23	–	22	25	compare

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Third base

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:04am

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Solve for ADP

Last week, Nick Fleder wrote a column he called Fun with Numbers. Well, I had so much fun, I decided to take his idea and run with it, applying what he did to a couple of questions of my own.

I’m interested in a few players who are either looking to bounce back or expected to make a leap. I wanted to see if I could help clarify and quantify whether taking a risk on these players at their current average draft positions (ADPs) projects to be worthwhile. While much attention often is paid to projections in the fantasy world, less effort seems to be applied to determining what a specific production output is actually “worth.”

Those readers who remember the great quants vs. geniuses discussions of last year might remember this issue as one that surfaced in that debate. Even if we know what a player is going to do, how perfectly can we translate that into what we should pay, what that production is worth relative to other production profiles, and how valuable that player is within the context of any given team?

Well, I won’t even attempt to get to that level of perfection here. In fact, we’re just going to have to settle for relative value compared to a 2010 baseline. But, ultimately, I’m trying to answer the question of what certain players would have to do to live up to their ADPs.

Just a quick note before I begin examining today’s players. There’s nothing particularly scientific or mathematically rigorous about the hypothetical projections I’m attaching to each player. Basically, I pulled these numbers out of the air, but I checked them against Oliver, Bill James, Rotochamp, and other projection systems.

What I was trying to do was generally get these projections in the ballpark of what the systems say but lean toward conservative projections overall. Keep in mind that the players being discussed either are going to have to overcome adversity to regain their previous status or are expected to make “the leap” in 2012.

All the projected rankings come from Baseball Monster’s 2010 figures for 12-team leagues, using the same methodology as Nick’s previous article.

Joe Mauer
ADP: 80

So, what if Mauer posted the following bounce-back, but not-quite-vintage Joe Mauer season?

R: 85
HR: 9
RBI: 75
SB: 2
AVG: .309

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 71

It seems that the conditions under which Mauer puts up a season similar to this one, or better, are merely that he stays relatively healthy and plays close to a full season. With Ryan Doumit now in Minnesota, it seems Mauer should see plenty of games at DH, hopefully both preserving his health and growing his AB total.

Looking at this potential line, it doesn’t appear that it should be good for the 71st overall player, especially when there are no inherent considerations for positional value afforded. I think this hypothetical reveals two important insights.

One, batting averages comfortably above .300 are more valuable than many people realize. Seeing a .325 batting average doesn’t elicit the same knee-jerk “Wow!” that 40-plus home runs does, but it is dominating an equally important fantasy category nonetheless.

Mauer is a career .323 hitter. Provided he gets enough ABs to lend considerable “weight” to his batting average, that is going to be a mighty valuable rate stat. Even at .309, we’re looking at the equivalent of 30 homers in category value above average.

Two, Mauer’s average value across all categories comes out to be just slightly positive. In fact, in 2010, there were only 72 players whose composite value across all categories came out positive. This means that the vast majority of players on teams throughout fantasy leagues are really guys who, in the words of Bill Simmons, bring stuff to the table, but also take stuff off the table.

Most of the players on your roster will have major disfigurements in their games. A player like Mauer, who merely only has a few minor blemishes, is a lot more rare than originally thought. Once positional value is considered, those blemishes get treated with a heavy application of cover-up, too.

Mauer appears to be a sound gamble at this price.

Carlos Santana
ADP: 37

On the flip side of Mauer, here’s another catcher who will be contending with growing expectations in 2012. What if Santana posted the following season, where he continued to build considerably on his impressive coming-out party?

R:92
HR: 30
RBI: 87
SB: 5
AVG: .259

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 42

My hypothetical has Santana jumping his batting average 20 points, holding his steals and increasing his other counting stats by about 10 percent. What we’re left with here looks like Jay Bruce with catcher eligibility. With this jump, he still misses earning his ADP by five slots, though one could argue that his positional eligibility makes up that ground. This may be the most aggressive projection I offer up in this article, but some systems think considerably bigger things are in store for the young backstop.

Whether Santana looks to be a good gamble at this current asking price depends heavily on how much you expect him to build on last year’s performance. Overall, it appears a nice step forward isn’t even enough to get you where you need to be. Personally, I’d have my share of reluctance, but I’m sure there are plenty of others who will not.

Shin-Soo Choo
ADP: 65

Prior to last season’s rough start, injury, and an adventurous offseason, Choo was a posterboy for five-category balance. So, what if Choo posted the following bounce-back, but not-quite-vintage season?

R:77
HR: 17
RBI: 78
SB: 17
AVG: .288

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 47

Once again, we are left with a line that looks less impressive than what we might think the 47th overall player should offer. However, even regressed to about 85 percent of his previous norms, the fact that Choo avoids being a major liability everywhere while being a modest asset in four categories leads us back down that road of sneaky value.

It seems to be that as long as his batting average doesn’t tank, there’s still considerable room for Choo to lose further ground from his career norms and still justify his ADP. If you believe at all in Choo, it appears there’s profit to reap from investing.

Hanley Ramirez
ADP: 19

What the hell happened to Hanley? That was one of last season’s leading story lines. Hanley is being drafted 19th overall coming into this season. Let’s take a look at two bounce-back projections of varying degrees of conservativeness.

R:87
HR: 20
RBI: 77
SB: 26
AVG: .280

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 34

R:92
HR: 23
RBI: 81
SB: 27
AVG: .288

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 26

When it comes to Ramirez, one thing is clear: If you’re in the camp that believes he will bounce back to regain damn near vintage form, it looks like you are not going to see a price you are unwilling to pay this year. Easy decision for you—push in all your chips. I wouldn’t blame anybody for making that move.

The more complicated question is reserved for those who are trying to balance optimism and confidence with trepidation and uncertainty. Hopefully, the two projections above provide some context for the numbers that may be swirling around in your heads. If you look at the bottom projection and say to yourself that “taking the over” looks like a pretty clear bet, then I’d say to go in on Hanley.

If you look at the first projection and say to yourself, “It could be very realistically be worse than that…” then what you are really telling yourself is that there’s as much to lose on this bet as there is to win, and maybe you want to put your chips down elsewhere.

Me, I think I’m buying all the way at 19. HanRam went 16th overall in the THT mock draft, right before my pick. Had he been available, it would have been a very difficult choice between him and Carlos Gonzalez, who I ultimately chose, but after CarGo went off the board, there was nobody left whom I would have even considered ahead of Ramirez.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:34am

Staff rankings: Second base

We continued our staff consensus rankings by position yesterday with our first base rankings. Today: second base. The staffers who ranked are Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'.

Assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Second Basemen Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Robinson Cano	1	1	2	1	1	compare
Dustin Pedroia	3	2	1	2	2	compare
Ian Kinsler	2	3	3	3	3	compare
Ben Zobrist	4	6	4	6	4	compare
Dan Uggla	6	4	5	7	5	compare
Brandon Phillips	5	7	6	4	6	compare
Michael Young	8	5	10	8	7	compare
Rickie Weeks	7	8	7	9	8	compare
Chase Utley	13	9	12	5	9	compare
Jason Kipnis	9	11	8	12	10	compare
Howard Kendrick	10	10	13	10	11	compare
Michael Cuddyer	11	16	9	11	12	compare
Dustin Ackley	12	12	11	14	13	compare
Danny Espinosa	16	13	16	13	14	compare
Neil Walker	14	15	14	16	15	compare
Jemile Weeks	15	14	18	15	16	compare
Kelly Johnson	18	17	15	17	17	compare
Aaron Hill	17	19	17	19	18	compare
Ryan Roberts	20	18	22	18	19	compare
Gordon Beckham	19	22	19	–	20	compare
Daniel Murphy	23	20	25	21	21	compare
Jose Altuve	22	21	23	25	22	compare
Brian Roberts	21	25	20	–	23	compare
Allen Craig	–	34	21	22	24	compare
Ryan Raburn	25	23	–	23	25	compare

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Shortstop

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:22am

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

The Verdict: don’t mock the mock

With pitchers and catchers set to report to spring training within the next week, the 2012 baseball season is upon us. This means your fantasy baseball league draft is coming up sooner than later.

Everyone has his or her own preferences and styles when it comes to preparing for a draft. There is certainly an unlimited amount of information, statistics, projections, analysis and commentary available about players and how they can be expected to perform. While that information is very useful and offers guidance for your draft day strategy, there are also other elements that should be considered when preparing for your draft.

Because you are likely drafting with other people, various human factors will come into play. There is always the chance someone will panic during a run at a particular position and take a player who could have been drafted several rounds later. Perhaps the team drafting before or after you has already filled a specific position which would allow you wait another pick before selecting the player you want. Maybe you have been in a league with the same people for years and know their tendencies.

All of these examples, and plenty of others, encompass an intangible skill set that includes intuition, memory, foresight, flexibility, and adaptability. These skills could be innate, but they can also be improved, and the best way to improve your drafting skills is to participate in a mock draft.

Over the past several years, mock drafting has become a vital part of any fantasy magazine or website's analysis for the upcoming baseball season. Seeing trends develop and analyzing how position scarcity plays an integral role during a draft is as much a part of draft preparation as projecting players' statistics.

Websites such as Mock Draft Central allow anyone to participate in as many mock drafts as they want. You can customize them to match your own league's settings and privately invite people to join as well. Or, you can join a public mock draft with other people you do not know. Either way, you are simulating the draft day experience and learning about what you may be able to expect at your own draft.

Another statistic that has rapidly entered the mainstream over the past few years is the Average Draft Position (ADP). This is a numerical average of when a particular player is drafted and is calculated based on hundreds of mock drafts conducted during the offseason. By no means is it dispositive of what will happen in your actual draft, but you can generally gauge where players are being taken and strategize how patient you want to be.

As informative and helpful as mock drafts and ADPs are, they do not eliminate the need for you to be well-prepared and ready to improvise. It would be fair to say that there are always surprises and shocking selections during any fantasy draft. You cannot control or dictate what anyone else does, so you must always be ready to act swiftly and deviate from your plan if the necessity arises.

That is what mock drafts will help you do. You can actually practice your ability to think on your feet and react to an unforeseen circumstance. If you didn't plan to draft a starting pitcher until the sixth round, but a run on starters has depleted the pool, then you may have to reconsider your strategy and adapt to the environment. Doing a mock draft can potentially simulate that situation and allow you to test your theories.

Some people may think mock drafts are a waste of time. However, anyone who takes fantasy baseball seriously and wants information and data that is not strictly empirical would benefit from seeing an expert mock draft board to really gauge how certain players are valued in comparison to others.

Normally, mock drafts are relegated to snake-style drafts because they are easier to administer and do not take as long. However, where a player is drafted in a snake draft is usually commensurate with what his auction value would be in comparison to others.

The draft is arguably the most important aspect of your fantasy baseball league. This is your opportunity to build the team you envision will give you the best chance to succeed. Normally, the team you draft will not be the team you end up with at the end of the season, but strategically drafting low-risk/high-reward players later on will give you the flexibility you need to parlay that value into a trade later on. Taking a chance on an injured player coming back could also have vastly different results depending on when you draft him.

That is why studying mock drafts and participating in them will help you get a better understanding of where certain players can be expected to go as opposed to just analyzing what statistics they are projected to accrue.

Posted by Michael Stein at 5:33am

Staff rankings: First base

Starting yesterday, we began to release our staff consensus rankings by position, starting with catchers. The staffers who ranked are Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'.

As you did yesterday, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 First Basemen Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Miguel Cabrera	1	1	1	2	1	compare
Albert Pujols	2	2	2	1	2	compare
Joey Votto	3	3	3	3	3	compare
Adrian Gonzalez	5	4	5	4	4	compare
Prince Fielder	4	5	4	5	5	compare
Mark Teixeira	6	6	6	6	6	compare
Eric Hosmer	7	7	7	9	7	compare
Paul Konerko	10	8	8	7	8	compare
Mike Napoli	8	9	10	10	9	compare
Carlos Santana	9	10	9	13	10	compare
Pablo Sandoval	11	15	11	11	11	compare
Michael Morse	12	14	13	12	12	compare
Kevin Youkilis	15	12	17	8	13	compare
Lance Berkman	14	17	12	15	14	compare
Michael Young	13	11	21	14	15	compare
Freddie Freeman	17	16	15	22	16	compare
Ike Davis	19	23	14	17	17	compare
Billy Butler	21	20	16	16	18	compare
Joe Mauer	18	13	–	20	19	compare
Ryan Howard	22	19	19	19	20	compare
Paul Goldschmidt	16	24	18	24	21	compare
Michael Cuddyer	20	29	20	18	22	compare
Howard Kendrick	25	18	–	21	23	compare
Mark Reynolds	23	22	23	23	24	compare
Kendrys Morales	24	26	22	–	25	compare

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.

Tomorrow... Second base

Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:45am

Monday, February 13, 2012

Staff rankings: Catchers

Over the next two weeks, we will unveil our staff "composite" rankings, which are made up of the average rankings of the following writers: Josh Shepardson, Ben Pritchett, Brad Johnson, and yours truly. We used FantasyPros.com to create our composite rankings, and if you follow the link provided in our rankings, you can see how ours compared with a slew of other experts'.

Our first top 25 will be catchers, and for the next two weeks, assume a 12-team, mixed league with standard 5x5 settings. Click on the links with our names to get to our Twitter accounts, where we'll happily answer your baseball and fantasy questions year-round.

2012 Catchers Rankings
Player Name	Nick Fleder	Ben Prichett	Josh Shepardson	Brad Johnson	THT Composite	FantasyPros Expert Consensus
Mike Napoli	1	1	2	1	1	compare
Carlos Santana	2	2	1	2	2	compare
Brian McCann	3	3	4	3	3	compare
Matt Wieters	4	6	3	4	4	compare
Joe Mauer	5	4	6	6	5	compare
Buster Posey	6	5	5	5	6	compare
Miguel Montero	7	7	7	7	7	compare
Alex Avila	9	10	8	8	8	compare
Wilson Ramos	8	9	12	13	9	compare
Geovany Soto	11	14	9	9	10	compare
Yadier Molina	15	8	11	10	11	compare
J.P. Arencibia	10	11	13	11	12	compare
Russell Martin	12	15	10	12	13	compare
Kurt Suzuki	13	12	15	19	14	compare
Devin Mesoraco	17	13	17	17	15	compare
Jonathan LuCroy	14	16	14	21	16	compare
Ramon Hernandez	16	21	16	18	17	compare
Salvador Perez	18	19	20	16	18	compare
Ryan Doumit	21	20	19	23	19	compare
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	19	17	24	26	20	compare
Chris Iannetta	20	18	22	–	21	compare
John Buck	22	23	18	24	22	compare
Nick Hundley	–	24	23	15	23	compare
Carlos Ruiz	23	27	21	20	24	compare
Bryce Harper	–	–	–	14	25	compare

Fantasy Baseball Rankings powered by FantasyPros, the leading aggregator of expert fantasy advice.
Tomorrow... First base

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:13am

The catcher and the why

First of all a special thanks goes out to Fantasy Pros and our own Nick Fleder for putting together our positional rankings. As far as I know, this will be the first time THT has released any form of consensus rankings. It’s a proud day for me, and I know you all will appreciate the painstaking work it takes to get this done. As I’m sure Nick will agree, our rankings weren’t necessarily a draft cheat sheet but a reflection of where we feel these players’ stats will measure up against each other at season’s end.

For day one, we rank the catchers. It's the most undervalued position in fantasy baseball, so it’s generally difficult to get too excited about backstops. I see my catcher as little more than a seat warmer. Most years, I peg a certain catcher or tier of catchers I think the room is undervaluing, and I make sure I get my guy. I hardly ever draft the number one catcher or even a top five catcher for that matter.

Last year, I targeted Wilson Ramos and Miguel Montero, and that worked out quite well. In leagues with deeper benches, I will usually draft a lower level catcher and pair him with a top prospect. This tag-team method would probably be my favorite strategy in addressing the catcher position. However, all drafts are different, and you can never tell how a draft is going to play out until you are already well into the battle.

I have concluded that Mike Napoli is the number one catcher in 2012. Upon finally getting his chance to shine in Texas, Napoli built a second half that was nothing short of magical.

I didn’t see his 2011 breakout coming. I knew Napoli had prodigious power unrivaled by any other catcher, but I never thought he would hit as consistently as he did. To think he put up 30 HR/75 RBI/.320 AVG in only 439 plate appearances is astonishing. The fact that he continued that success well into the playoffs further solidifies his elite status.

At 32 years old, Napoli isn’t getting any younger, so being “elite” could be a very short experience for him, but his 2011 season wasn’t so different from his 2008 season. The only real difference was plate appearances, batting eye, and some luck, all of which are trending upwards. Obviously he will face some extreme batting average regression; I’ll bet my house he doesn’t hit .320 again. If he’s your guy, I totally understand, but I won’t reach for him in the first three rounds, which is where he will undoubtedly be selected.

Like Napoli, Carlos Santana has caught the imaginations of experts and fans alike.

First, getting 658 plate appearances from your catcher is unfair. No other catcher was within a hundred plate appearances of Santana in 2011. That in itself should drive the value of a catcher, but Santana offers so much more. He’ll be only 25 at the beginning of the season, and he’s also a switch-hitter. He has 30+ home run potential, and I think most scouts see him as a higher batting average guy than he was last season.

The Indians have already saidthat Santana is the face and future of their franchise. so look for them to continue to shelter him more at first base. We all love catchers who spend significant time at other positions. I don’t think any catcher profiles as a better source for RBIs and runs. His awesome potential will cost an owner roughly the same as Napoli, which drives me out of the bidding. I’ll stand on the sidelines and admire Santana, but he probably won’t be my catcher in 2012.

Never, and I will repeat this, never have I ever seen so many viable catchers for a basic 5X5, 12-team standard league. After Napoli and Santana, at least eight catchers could all have the same value as the other. In my rankings you’ll see that I have Brian McCann as my No. 3 catcher, but my No. 8, Yadier Molina, could easily put up comparable numbers.

So, if you are like me, this conundrum really gets your engines thumping. As soon as Santana and Napoli, jump off the board, I will immediately go into value mode. I have McCann ranked as No. 3 for a variety of reasons. I am a fan of the Braves so I have seen enough of McCann to know what he’s capable of producing. Before his injuries, 2011 was shaping up to be the finest year of his career. He should be healthy and firmly set in the middle of a lineup that will produce better than it did last year, surely. McCann offers generally the same skill set as Santana but should be had two or three rounds later. I have him drafted in the fiffh round. Anything beyond that, and I’m drafting McCann.

After McCann, I struggled among Joe Mauer, Buster Posey, Matt Wieters and Miguel Montero for the fourth spot in my rankings. I love the potential of every one for different reasons.

With much angst, I chose Mauer. The reason I like Mauer isn’t because he’s safe. He’s not. It’s not because he’s coming off some sort of breakout season. That’s already happened. When Mauer is healthy he is a great source of runs and RBIs for a catcher. He averaged around 93 runs and 85 RBIs in the three seasons before last year. I think he still had double digit power even though the 28 home runs of 2009 are conclusively an aberration at this point. Target Field will also squander any future power potential.

The No. 1 reason I love Mauer is because he improves your batting average so much that it allows you to draft a Mark Reynolds or Ryan Howard-like player without fear of what those players will do to your batting average. Mauer is still an elite hitter, and he won’t come much cheaper than he will in 2012. If there’s any catcher who has the best chance of finding a way onto all my fantasy teams, it’s Mauer.

Picking Posey over Wieters will be considered blasphemy by my colleagues I’m sure, but I’m don’t care. I’m not as sold on Wieters as everybody else, apparently. He batted only .235 against right-handed pitching in 2011, which is the worst of his career. His career batting average rates have been directly tied to his BABIP successes and failures. I worry that he may constantly struggle with a certain level of volatility.

I also understand that Wieters fits the profile of a guy I typically like, but I’m not convinced that he’s ready yet. I need to see more, and I’m not willing to pay the price to find out. In our THT mock draft, Wieters was selected third overall among catchers. He may warrant such consideration when the season is over, but I’ll play it a little safer. Last tidbit on Wieters: power seems legit, and there’s no reason to think he can’t hit more than 20 home runs again 2012.

Posey is a poor man’s Mauer. Scouts love the term “Mauer with power,” and I have seen that said about both Wieters and Posey. Where I see Wieters as diet Mauer with power, I see Posey as just Mauer. Posey is obviously less proven than Maue,r but can’t be considered as big an injury risk. One freak play can’t label a player as an injury risk. I’d say he has an injury "mark." I assume that Posey will be healthy, and the Giants seem ready to play him more at first base this year to preserve that health. I secretly want Posey more than Mauer, but I don’t know if I have the guts to show that in my rankings.

When I entered 2011, I was ready to proceed with Montero as my catcher. He was so cheap, and no one believed he could improve on his successful 2009 season. I would point to his disappointing 2010 season as the reason. I like Montero because Arizona likes Montero. He isn’t going anywhere, and with ISOs much like all the more beloved catchers ranked ahead of him, he has a very underrated power stroke. If he continues to put up solid, across-the-board numbers and sees some increase in his power, Montero should still be a bargain in 2012, but this may be the last year to get him on the cheap. I doubt I will invest in Montero in any leagues other than my N- only leagues. He’s stable, but his ceiling isn’t quite as high as the others ranked ahead of him.

Speaking of stability, Yadier Molina took an impressive leap forward in 2011. He finally established himself as something more than the best defensive catcher and a solid source of batting average. He hit 14 home runs and didn’t compromise his other stats.

If he maintains power somewhere in the same level as last year, there really isn’t a catcher you can consider more stable than Molina. According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, Molina looks “buff.” I don’t know how to properly handle these kinds of news tidbits, but if he’s stronger than last year, why not think he can hit a few more home runs? Molina is a pick for guys looking to play it safe. For example, if you’ve already added some riskier selections or unreliables, then Molina is a perfect catcher to use for balance.

I often will draft from a lower tier of catchers, Nos. 9 through 15. If your bench is deep enough, I strongly encourage you to draft one of these lower-tier catchers preferably Wilson Ramos, Geovanny Soto or Kurt Suzuki, then grab the top prospect, which is Devin Mesoraco.

I don’t think there is enough difference among all these catchers to go into too much depth. Soto is power and experience. Suzuki is the RBIs and runs guy of the bunch. Ramos is the head of this group. If not for his kidnapping this winter, I would probably have him in the tier with the more valuable catchers, but I worry about his mind. Stress can be a powerful thing and could affect his performance. So even though he broke out in his first season as a starter, I’m not ready to pronounce him a star.

He is far from a slam-dunk but I could definitely see myself grabbing Mesoraco as his counterpart. That could be a dynamic duo especially in deep, two-catcher or NL-only leagues. I love the up-and-coming prospects, and none is more heralded than Mesoraco. Don’t be surprised if he unseats Ryan Hanigan as the Reds' primary catcher by the All-Star break. He is every bit as good as his hype.

What is amazing is the number of catchers lying in wait. Salvador Perez seems like he could have some promise, but expectations for him should be tempered. Wilin Rosario is a future star, but he still has some growing to do. Yasmani Grandal, now with the San Diego Padres, could be impressive if given the opportunity. Ryan Lavarnway is the reigning Boston Red Sox minor league player of the year and could be ready to expand on his late season successes.

Basically, there’s a lot to get excited about for the future of fantasy catchers. This list may look very different in 2013.

Posted by Ben Pritchett at 2:19am

Golden dollar: A.J. the Bucco

As a Yankee blood, A.J. Burnett is not a welcome name in my household. I don’t enjoy watching him play baseball—he’s made it easy to hate him, with a 5.26 ERA in 2010, a 5.15 in 2011, and a bad attitude for the whole ride—but he may well end up on several of my teams this year if (when) he becomes a Pirate. You might ask why. I might even ask why.

Not long ago, Burnett was a valuable commodity in all baseball spheres. He had a World Championship under his belt in 2003, an 18-win season in 2008, a sick strikeout rate along the way, and two five WAR seasons to his name (2005 and 2008). As such, he was signed to a (cringe-worthy) five-year, $85 million contract in 2009. He’s tumbled and fumbled since then, though, and fantasy owners and Yankees fans alike have come to hate the man.

In a 12-team, AL-only league, he was, in his first Yankee season, worth a rock-solid but unsexy $12 as the 23rd ranked pitcher. The subsequent year, he clocked in as the 118th most valuable American League starter, worthless on fantasy rosters in every sense of the word. A slight rebound made him the 72nd starter in the AL last season, worth less than Rich Harden (82.2 innings pitched with nearly identical ratio stats: 5.15 ERA and 1.43 WHIP), Matt Moore (who started two games), and Fautino de los Santos (who was wrongly classified as a starter but pitched only 33.1 underwhelming innings). Burnett, in other words, was fantasy kryptonite.

Throughout his demise, though, he’s remained well above league average in strikeout values and wins. According to Baseball Monster, his strikeouts had a value of 2.02 in his first Yankee year, 2009 (rated as very good), and maintained a 0.85 value and a 1.33 value in the following two years, respectively. Additionally, he won only 10 and 11 games in 2010 and 2011, both rated as above average in a standard 12-team AL-only league.

Let’s look at his Yankees years and dissect, as well as we can, his fantasy value.

Year      2009      2010      2011   3-Yr. Avg   Career
ERA       4.04      5.26      5.15      4.79      4.10
BABIP     0.295     0.319     0.294     0.302     0.290
WHIP      1.4       1.51      1.430     1.44      1.33
HR/FB%    10.8      11.6       17       12.8      11.3
K/9       8.48      6.99      8.18      7.88      8.22

The problem with Burnett, clearly, lies in his inability to limit base runners and his sky-high ERA. He still possesses some semblance of his former ability. In the past three years, his high-water marks (found in bold above, mostly in the 2009 category) make for a pretty valuable $12 season. A quick look at his rate stats might lead one to believe that Burnett has become a vastly inferior pitcher to his former self. Not so quick…

ERA problems

His home run to fly ball ratio will surely go down, as his rate was 17 percent last year while the league average clocks in around 10.5 percent. Burnett’s 2011 might not have looked so ugly with a league-average ratio, as his xFIP was more than respectable at 3.86. PNC Park will have a lot to do with the regression to the mean, as Yankee Stadium had a 1.267 HR factor in 2011 while Burnett’s (likely) home park had a HR factor of 0.799. The difference, for illustrative purposes, is nearly the same as that between Coors Field and PETCO Park in 2011.

WHIP problems

These are likely here to stay, but shouldn’t ever look so bad as they did in 2011. Burnett’s walk rate has hovered around his career mark for the past several years (which never produced great WHIP numbers), but the difference in his recent performance is that he’s simply much more hittable (204 hits in 186-plus 2010 innings paints the picture pretty well). Perhaps there’s a little luck involved, though. His three-year BABIP was .302 in pinstripes, while his career mark is .290.

Golden dollar?

If Burnett can channel his 2009 version and find himself on the right side of the luck equation, he might be a golden dollar. You know, the one found in Willy Wonka and the Chocolate Factory? His home run to fly ball percentage will surely go down, we’ve concluded. If his BABIP can stay as low as it did in 2011, then the HR/FB tumble will bring his ERA down to respectable levels and his WHIP won’t ever touch the mid-ones again.

Bad luck in several forms—BABIP in 2010 and home run rate in 2011—has kept Burnett in the fantasy dumpster, but I’ll bet my final dollar he returns to respectability (or better).

Even if he leads me to a championship or two, though, I’ll never love him.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 1:20am

This week in (fantasy) baseball

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions.

So here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Orioles trade Jeremy Guthrie to Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom

With less than a week to go before pitchers and catchers report, Colorado and Baltimore shored up their starting rotations by swapping pitchers who can eat up innings.

Guthrie, who turns 33 in April, has averaged more than 30 starts over the past five years but has never realized the potential the Indians saw when they made him a first-round draft pick 10 years ago. Last year, he finished 9-17 with a 4.33 ERA and 1.341 WHIP and allowed more hits than innings pitched.

For a guy who’s surrendered an average of more than 26 home runs a season since 2007, moving to Coors Field won’t exactly help his fantasy value next year. But at least he enters spring training with a guaranteed spot in the rotation, and could benefit from facing National League lineups for the first time in his career.

Hammel is a similar case, a guy with a career 4.99 ERA who should at least hold down a steady rotation job but offer fantasy owners little else on a team headed toward another 90-loss season. Entering his age-29 season, Hammel comes off the highest BB/9 and HR/9— and lowest K/9—of his career since becoming a full-time starter, and was shuttled between the rotation and the bullpen during the season’s final two months.

By far the most interesting variable to come out of the deal is Lindstrom, a guy with closing experience who could give current ninth-inning man Jim Johnson a possible challenge in the season’s early months. Manager Buck Showalter expressed interest late last year in moving Johnson to the rotation, but that was before the team acquired Tsuyoshi Wada and Wei-Yin Chen, fleshing out a top five that should include Zach Britton and Jake Arrieta. If things fall apart, a pile of warm bodies, including Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman, Dana Eveland and Tommy Hunter could step in to eat up innings.

That means Johnson will likely stay at the back end of the bullpen, where he posted decent numbers last year after taking over for Kevin Gregg. But Lindstrom’s presence—along with that of newly signed Luis Ayala—gives Showalter backup options, and could make for an interesting position battle next month.

Rangers sign Conor Jackson to minor league deal

Jackson’s stock has fallen sharply since he posted three straight .800-plus OPS seasons several years ago. Last year, in 390 plate appearances split between the A’s and the Red Sox, Jackson, 29, posted a .244/.310/.341 line with just five home runs and 43 RBIs. But he can play at all four corner infield and outfield positions, and could provide Mitch Moreland with a right-handed-hitting platoon partner if the Rangers so desire. Jackson might be far from an exciting fantasy candidate, but while his prospects for a steady job are less than clear, any slugger calling Arlington home could have some fantasy value, so keep an eye on how his spring training unfolds.

Russell Branyan receives spring training invitation from Yankees

Although the Yankees are still looking for a left-handed designated hitter to complement Andruw Jones, the team agreed to terms Wednesday with the 36-year-old Branyan. Obviously, there’s little guarantee Branyan will make the team, let alone hold down a regular job, but it’s worth remembering he swatted 31 and 25 home runs in 2009 and 2010, respectively. Last year, Branyan compiled a .197/.295/.370 line in 146 plate appearances between the D-backs and Angels, and never earned a full-time job with either club. He’s strictly an afterthought as far as fantasy is concerned, though anyone wearing pinstripes in a premier hitters’ park retains the potential to make an impact, so he might be worth keeping an eye on in spring training.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 1:11am

Friday, February 10, 2012

A dynasty ranking follow-up

I'm a bit late to the party in terms of following up the dynasty rankings article from a few weeks back, which can be found here. That said, Jeff's excellent supplementary piece has spurred me to follow up with one of my own. As is abundantly clear, there are wildly varying opinions on where these youngsters should be ranked. Hopefully this follow-up piece will shed some light on the thinking that went into my ranking.

1. Justin Upton, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks

Upton is oozing with talent, and is an across-the-board performer. The decision was easy for me to rank him at the top. Playing most of the 2011 season at 23 years old, Upton boasts in game power that few of his peers can match. In previous years, that power came with the expected eye-popping strikeout totals of a young slugger. This past season, however, Upton made massive strides in that department, shaving nearly eight percentage points off of his 26.6 percent strikeout rate of 2010, reducing it to 18.7 percent. The result was a 16-point jump in batting average, in spite of a 35-point drop in his BABIP.

He is a prototypical heart-of-the-order batter who offers power, average and solid on-base skills. For gravy, Upton has stolen around 20 bases a season. Unfortunately, he hasn't been efficient doing so. If he fills out any further and loses a step, the brakes may be pumped, and 20 stolen base seasons turned into a thing of the past. Of course, if that's the case, a further bump in power production could also result, making the net result a wash of sorts.

2. Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington Nationals

It pained me to rank a starting pitcher this high (let alone follow it up with two more at spots three and four). Strasburg is a special talent, though, and has toyed with hitters in his 92 innings of major league experience. In his brief return in 2011, Strasburg showed he'd reclaimed most of his explosive pre-Tommy John velocity, and exhibited pristine control (often the last thing to return).

Reports such as that of Tom Verducci, which Jeff quoted in his own dynasty rankings article, are worth noting. But how much weight should be placed on them? Before suffering a series of injuries, Mark Prior was lauded as having picture-perfect mechanics. Post-injury, everyone and his brother wanted to claim “they knew” his mechanics would lead to injury. Many questioned how a starter like Tim Lincecum would hold up with such a high torque, awkward delivery.

All of this leaves me questioning the validity and worth of most mechanical arguments. Sure, an easy, clean delivery is much preferred to a high effort one. Ultimately, though, I believe some pitchers' bodies are built for the unorthodox motion of throwing a baseball overhand and some aren't. Strasburg has yet to prove whether he fits into the former or the latter group. He'll have to build up his innings again, and is no sure thing to maintain his mind-blowing performance over a 200-plus-inning grind. Even with that in mind, he has room for regression with his level of play being so high.

3- Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers

Much of the commentary in the initial rankings article revolved around Kershaw ranking behind Strasburg. A very valid argument could be made for him ranking higher. That argument could start with him winning the National League's pitcher triple crown (he led the league in ERA, WHIP and strikeouts). That alone makes him an incredibly desirable young pitcher, something that is reflected in his ranking on this list.

One reason he ranked behind Strasburg for me was his record of passable to poor control. Last season was his first with a walk rate below 3.50 per nine innings, and only his second below four per nine. How much of his control gains will he be able to sustain? He doesn't need all of the gains to flirt with the top fantasy pitcher ranking year-to-year, but one season isn't enough for me to completely ignore nearly 500 innings of previous work in the majors.

What I found most promising about his electric 2011 campaign was that he didn't need to sacrifice strikeouts for control gains. Kershaw is a special talent, make no bones about it, but if I'm going to gamble on a starter as the face of my dynasty franchise, I'm going to shoot the moon with Strasburg.

4. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners

It is hard to believe Hernandez, at just 25, is already a veteran of nearly 1,400 innings in the majors. This vet is a model of consistency. In all but his 2008 season, and his 2005 rookie debut, Hernandez has posted xFIPs that are a near carbon copy of his career 3.31 mark. He has two seasons under his belt in which he has compiled an ERA under 2.50 as well. He doesn't strike out as many batters as the two pitchers ranking ahead of him, but his 8.18 K/9 career rate is plenty good enough, especially when it is coupled with excellent control, 2.75 BB/9, and a truck load of ground balls—a 55.2 percent groundball rate.

As far as controllable components go, Hernandez has shown himself to be a model performer in all three. Perhaps the most overlooked element of his value is his ability to be counted on for a high volume of innings. Not only can owners comfort themselves in knowing they'll get star level stats from Hernandez, they can count on them coming over the course of 230-plus innings (he's bested that total each of the last three years). If you're a King Felix owner, just kick back, relax, and enjoy.

5. Mike Stanton, OF, Florida Marlins

I was very tempted to rank Stanton directly behind Upton, as Jeff did. His power is prodigious, and even though he strikes out frequently, he made gains in that regard from his rookie season to year two. How much further improvement to his strikeout rate can be expected? Tough to say. He's a power hitter, and strikeouts are often times an unwanted side effect. Upton has illustrated that it is possible to hit for power without selling out completely and whiffing at a clip that rivals the league leaders. If Stanton hopes to hit for more average, he'll need to make the same strides.

Unlike Upton, Stanton hasn't shown much base-stealing acumen. In 250 games, Stanton has stolen five bases and been caught stealing seven times, so don't expect him to suddenly get the green light. He's not some sort of Adam Dunn-like lurching creature, so a handful of stolen bases annually is within reason. Stanton is just about as desirable a fantasy asset as one could own starting a dynasty franchise, but his questionable batting average and modest stolen base contributions hold him back just a bit for me... for now. If given a redo, I very well might put him above the pitchers, especially considering the sheer depth of quality arms.

6. Bryce Harper, OF, Washington Nationals

This was as high as I could reasonably rank Harper. Unreasonably, I was tempted to move him and Stanton above the pitchers. Unlike many young power-hitting prospects, Harper's power is an 80 grade tool now on the 20-to-80 scale. He played the entire minor league season as an 18-year-old, and reached the Double-A level. He'll likely debut in the majors as a 19-year-old, meaning sometime this season. His most arduous backers give him an outside chance at breaking camp with the team. While I think that's unlikely, he's not that far off.

He crushed the ball in the Arizona Fall League, and shows patience at the plate that exceeds what should reasonably be expected of someone so young. Then again, Harper has done nothing but exceed expectations on the diamond, so this should come as little surprise. As a commenter alluded to in the initial article, Harper has six more years that he'll qualify for this list! His age, present tools, ceiling, professional performance to date, and near major league readiness are staggering. He could easily top this list next year, and the year after, and the year after, and... you get the idea.

7. Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

Most prospect talk revolving around Harper eventually turns to Trout, and this shall be no different. Unlike Harper, Trout already has major league experience. He received his time as both a 19- and 20-year-old. Trout didn't light the world on fire, but wasn't completely overwhelmed either. He flashed some power—five home runs and a .171 ISO in 135 plate appearances—and speed—five stolen bases—but his average was lackluster. The biggest culprit for his ugly batting average was an unlucky .247 BABIP. With a 20.7 percent line drive rate, a low pop-up rate, and the wheels Trout possesses, his BABIP, and consequently his average, should have been considerably higher.

The Angels have a crowded outfield, and may opt to unclog it temporarily by sending Trout to Triple-A to start the year. Injury or ineffectiveness from one of the players ahead of him could open the door for him to become a full-time regular, of course, there is always also a chance he kicks the door open himself by slaughtering the Pacific Coast League. His power isn't as great as Harper's, but it is above average, and his speed is elite. He also projects to hit for an excellent average. So much to like here.

8. Brett Lawrie, 3B, Toronto Blue Jays

Lawrie has the position-eligibility argument working in his favor for ranking ahead of at least Trout and Harper. He also has an explosive rookie year under his belt in which he showed power, speed, and the ability to hit for average against major league pitching. Even with that in mind, the power output is significantly greater than he'd ever produced in prior years. Part of that is undoubtedly that he's more physically mature now, but how big a part? I suspect he can hit 20-25 home runs regularly, which is good, but not a total out of the reach of Trout, who I believe will steal more bases and hit for a smidge more average. Harper should also blow away Lawrie's power output, and chip in stolen bases in his early years (though not to the extent Lawrie will). Positional scarcity does matter, which is why this is a tough call, but ultimately I decided the difference in ceiling was great enough to slot him behind the others.

9. Carlos Santana, C/1B, Cleveland Indians

Santana is already in the discussion for the best fantasy option at his position. He's coming off a year in which he hit 27 home runs, scored 84 runs, had 79 RBIs, showed extreme discipline (14.7 percent walk rate), and even added five stolen bases. The lone fantasy-relevant category I neglected to mention was his ugly .239 batting average. His low BABIP in 2010, low line drive rate, and high pop-out rate make it debatable as to how unlucky his .263 BABIP in 2011 really was. Should he iron out some of his pop-out issues, and turn some of his ground balls from 2011 back into the line drives he hit in 2010, his average could spike a great deal.

Since he had the best bat in the Indians' lineup, they found time for him routinely at first base. Anytime a catcher is able to get playing out of the crouch, it should be considered a plus. However, what is a blessing now could be a curse down the line. The Indians have continued to give Matt LaPorta opportunities to prove he's the long-term option at first base, and he has disappointed. The farm system lacks an impact bat at the position, and the team could decide it is in its best interest to move Santana to the less grueling defensive position. For now, the scare isn't great enough for me to punish him too much for it, but it does warrant monitoring.

He turns 26 in early April, so he won't be eligible for this list next year. For now, as my ranking suggests, he's a desirable dynasty league option.

10. Eric Hosmer, 1B, Kansas City Royals

I'm crazy about Hosmer's swing. I'm not a scout, but when I hear about short swing paths, I picture Hosmer's cut. His walk rate is below league average, but he offsets that with a low strikeout rate. Ideally, he'll learn the old man skill of walking as he gets more major league experience.

Hosmer showed ample power, cranking out 19 home runs in 563 plate appearances. That total doesn't stand up well against his first base counterparts, but it should go up some as he physically matures. It would also be aided greatly by hitting left-handed pitching better. Hosmer hit 18 of his home runs against right-handed pitching, and slashed .315/.355/.531. He hit only one home run and .237/.282/.303 against southpaws. One notable difference in the batted ball data is that his 56.8 percent groundball rate against lefties is almost 10 percent higher than against righties. If I were to guess, I'd say it's the result of him rolling over pitches against southpaws. Hosmer's a talented batter, and should be capable of making the necessary adjustments to close the gap on his big platoon split.

The bar is set high offensively at first base, but the names Pujols, Votto, Fielder, Gonzalez, Howard and Teixeira have shown in recent years that even with that the case, a first-round or second-round draft slot isn't out of the question.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 2:55am

Thursday, February 09, 2012

Fun with numbers

Baseball Monster is a rankings website that caters player values and projections to your league's settings. They describe the way in which they calculate the player values as such:

"Player values are based on the standard score statistic, where a value of 0.0 is the average for your league. Anything positive is better than the league average, negative worse. As a general guideline, a value of 2.0 and above for an individual category is very good, -2.0 and below, really bad."

Easy enough, right? The league I used for experimental purposes was a standard, mixed league with 12 teams. In the numbers below, I tweaked the player values based on numbers that I thought were realistic projections for 2012. For example, I looked at what Matt Kemp's value might be if he had hit 25 points lower in the batting average department and, further, where he might have ranked if he only hit 30 home runs.

My findings and observations...

*

30 Had Matt Kemp hit 30 home runs rather than 39 last year, he would have still been the second best offensive player (trailing, then, only Jacoby Ellsbury). Some regression can be expected; after all, his home run rate was five and a half percent above his career average, and he never hit more than 28 home runs before his 2011 campaign.

.294 Had Matt Kemp hit 30 home runs with a .294 average (his career mark) last year, once again he would’ve found himself near the top of the value leaderboards. This time, he’d also trail Ryan Braun. Kemp won’t hit .324 again—it was aided by a whole lotta luck—but I wouldn’t say it’s the largest stretch of the imagination to assume 30+ homers and a .300 average. Don’t overestimate the regression that’ll hit him; he’s worthy of consideration at #1 overall.

*

12If Dee Gordon meets his Oliver projections of two homers, 40 RBIs, 76 runs, 40 stolen bases, and a .270 average, he would’ve been the 12th most valuable shortstop of 2011.

61 If Dee Gordon meets his Oliver projections in all categories except one—stolen bases—and beats his projection in said category by 21 steals, he’d be the seventh most valuable shortstop of 2011. I think he can steal 61 (he was on pace for that precise number with 600 plate appearances last year), and perhaps he can best his runs projection, too (on pace for 87 last year). I’d rather have him than Elvis Andrus when price is considered.

*
3.38 Heath Bell’s ERA projection from Oliver. Projected numbers of a 3.38 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, 36 saves, three wins, and 56 strikeouts would’ve had Bell as the 50th most-valuable relief pitcher last year. Sure, the list includes a slew of middle relievers, but there are a dozen or so closers I would prefer to Bell.

3.18 Heath Bell’s career ERA away from PETCO in the last four seasons.

44 Heath Bell’s average saves total in the last three seasons. Let’s cut the man some slack.

*

.239 Evan Longoria’s BABIP last year, which led to a .244 batting average.

.319Evan Longoria’s BABIP over the previous three seasons, which led to a three year average of .283

78 Evan Longoria’s 2011 runs scored total.

98 Evan Longoria’s previous two-year runs scored average.

3 Evan Longoria’s 2011 stolen base total.

12Evan Longoria’s previous two-year stolen bases average.

5 Evan Longoria’s ranks among third basemen last season, clocking in (well) behind Jose Bautista, Michael Young, Adrian Beltre, and Aramis Ramirez.

2 Evan Longoria’s retrospective ranking among third basemen with a “should have been” 31/98/99/12/.283 line.

17 Evan Longoria’s retrospective rankings among all position players with the aforementioned “should have been” line, which makes still him a “Don’t Draft,” in the first round for yours truly.

*

10 The number of position players who, per linear weights, were above average in all five major offensive categories in 2011. Their names: Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun, Dustin Pedroia, Justin Upton, Alex Gordon, Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gonzalez, Brandon Phillips, Jeff Francoeur.

0 The number of players listed above who play shortstop.

.276 League average batting average.

.273 Asdrubal Cabrera’s batting average in 2011.

4The number of categories Asdrubal Cabrera was above average in last season: home runs, stolen bases, RBIs, and runs scored.

~0.001 The percent chance that I budge and take Troy Tulowitzki in the first round, knowing that Asdrubal Cabrera can be had in the seventh (at least in our recent mock draft).

*

19 David Price’s ranks among starting pitchers in 2011, when he put up a 3.49 ERA, a 1.13 WHIP, and 218 strikeouts while he garnered only 12 wins.

14 David Price’s ranks among starting pitchers in 2011 if he had won 19 games, as he did the previous year.

11 David Price’s ranks among starting pitchers in 2011 if he had won 19 games, as he did the previous year, and if he had pitched to a 3.32 ERA, like both his FIP and xFIP suggested.

9 The number of pitchers taken before David Price in drafts, on average, per Mock Draft Central. Shame. I’d feel comfortable, still, with Price as my ace, but perhaps the early fourth round is a little early to draft a pitcher for some, especially when Ian Kennedy can be found much, much later.

*

21 The number of wins last year by Ian Kennedy. Cut the number to 16, the 2011 wins total of his Arizona counterpart, Daniel Hudson, and you still have a top eight pitcher when last year’s other stats are used. A lot of people credit Kennedy’s hefty (and likely unsustainable) win total to his value last year, but forget that he was excellent without too much luck aiding his success. His home-run rate was a tad low, so factor in a few more of those, but otherwise, draft him as an ace with confidence. But wait…

20 The number of pitchers taken ahead of Ian Kennedy in our recent mock draft.

7 The round in which Ian Kennedy was selected in our recent mock draft.

0 How much sense that makes.

*

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:27am

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Making the leap up

I’ve been asked a number of times to provide advice for those who play in public leagues who want to graduate to more competitive leagues and possibly increase the stakes of the leagues in which they participate. I don’t have any earth-shattering wisdom to impart on the matter, but I’ll offer up some thoughts and perhaps others will be able to offer their experiences in the comments section as well.

For the most part, those looking to graduate into more competitive, higher stakes (and those two dynamics are often, though not always, tied together) leagues have three general paths to pursue: create your own league, find an existing league, or join a league through a third-party provider that offers fantasy sports for stakes. Let’s briefly discuss each of these options.

Start your own league

All things being equal, this is the best option if it is feasible. By creating your league, you get to set out the initial league structure, rules, stakes, etc. There are many advantages to doing this, most of which are intuitive. It is best if you can start this league with friends, or mostly friends and maybe a few friends of friends. This is important because you want to have a rapport with the league.

You have to collect dues, and most likely you’ll run into some situations early on where you’ll have to make some commissioner decisions, and all that works much more smoothly if you have a pre-existing, cordial and respectful relationship with most of the league. It gets easy to vilify a commissioner who is a stranger.

Sometimes these leagues take a while to grow in competitiveness and enthusiasm, but be patient. If you can put a league together, I think it’s a good option to do so. Even if you also want to try for a quicker fix to satiate your competitive jones at the same time, plant this seed as well.

I enjoy my home leagues so much that I basically don’t even accept the invites to the expert leagues I get. While that sentiment right there may be worthy of a #humblebrag, it also reflects the origin of rotisserie baseball. At its best, it’s a social activity, and who better to be social with than your own friends and associates?

Join an existing league

A second way to get into a more serious league is to seek out existing leagues looking for owners. Many baseball discussion boards have fantasy baseball forums, and there are always people in there looking to fill out their leagues with more teams. Here, you can do a bit of vetting of the other participants, though you’re still entering at least a partial unknown.

Best practices here are to try to build some level of communication with the other league members before committing to anything. Get a sense of the history of the league. Many times there are generally established leagues that retain a core of participants, but that core isn’t enough to complete a league and so the established players take to the message boards to try to recruit the last few teams, which may change owners frequently.

This approach gives you at least a chance to get into an already established, fairly healthy league. You’re also not necessarily committed to return if you don’t enjoy yourself (unless it’s a keeper league).

When you start your own league, sometimes it can be hard to get out of it if your friends enjoyed it because they’ll pressure you into re-upping. I was part of a league with some old co-workers, and I told myself I would quit three straight seasons before actually doing so. I kept falling for the guilt trip of them telling me they might not be able to fill out the league if I left. Who knew people would be so anxious to bring back somebody who won the league four out of five seasons? (#notsohumblebrag tag for that one!)

All in all, this can be risky because you are kind of going the third-party route without the “protections” offered by the third party. You really have no recourse if others are shady with money or act collusively, etc., and that’s why it’s incumbent to do your homework. But it’s important to also keep an open mind and be willing to take a chance if it feels right.

In addition to fantasy baseball, I’m active in I guess what most people would call the “sneaker collecting” hobby, another area that forces me to deal with many people over the internet and broker deals with people I don’t really know. The codes I live my there are protect yourself, trust your instincts, but keep and open mind. Anybody—no matter how reputable—can be a scammer, and anybody—no matter how unknown or obscure—can be a stellar, honest person.

Joining third-party for-stakes leagues

A third option for stepping your game up is to enter leagues through sites like Fantasy Sports are Us (FSRU) or National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC). I’ve personally never joined a league through sites like this, but both FSRU and NFBC are well-established in the industry.

For those with really heavy pockets or who are just supremely confident in their skills, there’s the NFBC league that costs $1,400 per team and includes 300 total teams that compete for divisional and overall prizes. Fellow THT author Dave Shovein shares a team in this league.

I contemplated joining this league last year and discussed it with an associate of some note in this industry who also has achieved success in this league, and he encouraged me to do it. There are plenty of experts involved in this league, but there are also well-to-do average joes with money to blow, or at least that’s the impression I was given. I wimped out anyway, though.

Another variation of the idea of joining third-party leagues is to get into daily fantasy gaming. Daily fantasy sports gaming allows you to draft (auction) a whole new team every day. You can also play for smaller stakes. The dynamics of chance and skill are different than seasonal leagues, but the contained excitement can be fun. Fanduel is a leading daily fantasy gaming site provider and a friend of The Hardball Times, but there are other providers, as well.

Here are a few resources for those looking to take the plunge on something new from former THT writer and daily fantasy gaming expert, Alex Zelvin.

An introduction to daily fantasy baseball contests

Keys to winning daily fantasy baseball contests

Finally, a cautionary tale. The World Championship of Fantasy Football was a mega-institution in the fantasy gaming world, organizing huge-money competitions with the appearance of plenty of funding behind it. The organization recently folded, and many recent winners are unlikely to receive their entry fees back, let alone the jackpots they were guaranteed.

ESPN’s Outside the Lines ran a story about this for those who want more information on this scandal. I include this piece of information not to scare anybody off, but moreso to underline the point I made earlier; it’s not always so easy to determine what people/outfits are reliable. Of course, that internet problem is not unique to searching for fantasy baseball leagues.

At the end of the day, you have to both be willing to walk away and willing to take a few chances, depending on what your research and your gut tell you. In that way, seeking a league is not really all that different from building a fantasy team.

I was lucky enough to start my fantasy gaming with friends, but for those of you who may have started by joining public leagues but have since elevated your game and league experiences, please share your insights below.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:36am

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Did you know we had a mock draft?

When I participate in an expert draft, I am contractually obligated to write about it. Astute readers may have noticed that Derek Ambrosino, Michael Stein, Ben Pritchett, and Nick Fleder already fulfilled their obligations.

Since it is customary, I will open with a very brief rundown of my final product. We can discuss things more in depth in the comments.

C. Mike Napoli - 4/37
C. Miguel Montero - 10/109
1B. Prince Fielder - 2/13
2B. Chase Utley - 5/61
SS. Starlin Castro - 3/36
3B. Mat Gamel - 23/276
CI. Michael Morse - 5/60
MI. Ben Zobrist - 8/85
OF. Curtis Granderson - 1/12
OF. Bryce Harper - 15/180
OF. Matt Joyce - 16/181
OF. Dexter Fowler - 17/204
OF. Jose Tabata - 18/205
DH. Jim Thome - 25/301
P. Matt Moore - 7/84
P. Jordan Zimmermann - 9/108
P. Anibal Sanchez - 12/133
P. Chris Sale - 13/156
P. Clay Buchholz - 14/157
P. Erik Bedard - 20/229
P. Jonathan Papelbon - 11/132
P. Grant Balfour - 21/252
P. Javy Guerra - 22/253
BN. Chipper Jones - 24/277
BN. Nolan Reimold - 25/300
BN. Nyjer Morgan - 19/228 (whoops)

The league featured some notable peculiarities that tripped up my general strategy. We're dealing with a very small, three man bench. In a traditional, five bench player environment, I would have liked to add one more utility infielder, another outfielder (in place of Morgan, more on that in a moment), and an elite set up man or two.

In terms of structural rules, we were forced to select a DH rather than a UTIL. I ignored that particular imperative (hence the Thome choice). There was no IP limit in place, but Derek said something about pretending it was 1600 innings so that's what I drafted. Typically, I draft only four starters I love and fill in the blanks later. In this case, I would have drafted a position player rather than Clay Buchholz.

My biggest mistake of the draft was Morgan. The selection was an error between the user (me) and the draft interface. Bedard was highlighted on my wish list and thus I thought he was the name in my cue. The reason Morgan had been clicked on in the first place is because I was investigating last round picks while waiting for my turn. Unfortunately, I clicked the draft button and wound up with Morgan rather than Bedard. I no longer remember who I wanted to pair with Bedard on that particular turn.

If you want to talk more generally about my team, I'll be happy to discuss in comments land.

Lessons from the turn

I chose to draft from the turn. I was the third owner to sign up and only slots one and two had been taken. The reason for my choice was twofold, to challenge myself and to practice. My only snake draft is a linear weights, keeper league where I will be picking twelfth.

Practicing from the turn in serious mocks can be very informative because there is absolutely no temptation to wait on a player. The lesson of the offseason from multiple outlets has been to draft based on your board, not ADP. Most THT readers are going to be in above average leagues and the more competitive a league is, the less that ADP should inform our decisions.

One example from my list—I came very close to selecting Pablo Sandoval in the third round turn. That pick would have been before Ryan Zimmerman, Adrian Beltre, and Alex Rodriguez. All three players tend to be unanimously ranked above Sandoval, but I lean towards preferring Sandoval. The Giants lineup is a little fugly, which will hurt his runs and RBI totals, but I love his combination of batting average and power for a standard league. I ended up with Starlin Castro and Mike Napoli with those picks.

This is not to say that I necessarily project Sandoval to have better stats than Zimmerman, but I do prefer to roster Sandoval for a variety of reasons.* At that point in the draft, I knew that if I did not pick a third baseman, catcher, or shortstop, that I would be waiting a long time to finish filling out that position. I was more comfortable with my backup plan of Mat Gamel and Chipper Jones (which I nailed, whether you agree with it or not) than my backup plans at shortstop (Mike Aviles) or catcher (Ramon Hernandez).

*I can see the question marks above your heads, let's talk about this in the comments.

This transitions nicely to my lesson about reaching. I reached early and often in this draft and I feel pretty good about the results. I plucked Chase Utley, Matt Moore, Chris Sale, Bryce Harper, Dexter Fowler, and Jose Tabata off the draft tree before they were fully ripe.

Those reaches fall into convenient buckets. Utley is the formerly elite player who has been relegated to the second or third tier by injuries. He called my dad about two weeks ago and told him he was going to have a great season (literally, this happened), so I figured I'd bite. That's not the most analytical explanation, but Utley is also my favorite player and has the potential to return first round production if he can stay healthy (an admittedly unlikely 'if').

Moore, Sale, and Harper are all hyped, unproven youngsters with incredible skill sets. Harper is probably the pick people disagree with the most, I sandwiched that pick between Nick's choice of Lorenzo Cain and my choice of Matt Joyce. Other outfielders selected around that time include Torii Hunter, Austin Jackson, Yeonis Cespedes, Angel Pagan, Mike Trout, and Michael Brantley. Harper might debut at any time, but his floor is comparable to most of those players and his ceiling made him a favorable choice to me.

Fowler and Tabata fall in the team need bucket—in this case, speed. My team lacked bonafide burners, Curtis Granderson and Ben Zobrist were the main providers in that category. With Fowler and Tabata (especially the latter), I put my team in the position to be one waiver move away from competing in steals.

The last major lesson I learned is more of a theory. It goes something like this—the more informed a league is, the less prone it is to position runs. Closer and catcher are the two most common positions to be drafted "too early."

No true run on closers ever occurred. Dave picked the first closer, Craig Kimbrel, in round six. He struck again in round nine with a (baffling) Drew Storen pick. I picked the third closer, Jonathan Papelbon in the 11th round - a position where he is rarely available. Two more closers went in the 11th including another to Dave. Dave selected a FOURTH closer in the 12th, and Josh picked the first non-closer reliever - Kenley Jansen. A pseudo-run started in the middle of the 15th through the 16th round, but that's so late in the draft that they might have been value picks.

Catcher picks were scattered throughout the draft with most owners waiting until the late rounds to address the position. This might have been because a lot of those owners play one catcher leagues and didn't care to adjust their strategy, or it might have been several smart owners agreeing that it often doesn't make sense to fight over a weak position. Why fight for table scraps at one table when there's an untouched cake at another?

This concludes today's lessons. What do you think I should have learned?

Posted by Brad Johnson at 2:07am

Monday, February 06, 2012

This week in (fantasy) baseball: 1/30-2/5

Edwin Jackson signs with Nationals

An otherwise slow week in fantasy news was interrupted Wednesday when Edwin Jackson agreed to a one-year, $11 million contract with the Nationals. Jackson, 28, finished last season with a cumulative 12-9 record, 3.79 ERA, 1.437 WHIP and 6.7 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) rate as he split time between the White Sox and Cardinals.

Despite reports that agent Scott Boras was seeking a five-year contract for the right-hander, Jackson ended up settling for a shorter deal in hopes of testing the market again next year. That’s a bargain for the Nationals, who acquire a mid-rotation pitcher in the prime of his career who has made at least 30 starts in each of the past five seasons.

Fantasy owners, meanwhile, will stare once again at the Rorschach test that is E-Jax, a live arm who’s been touted as a potential breakout candidate in past years even if he’s yet to become a top-level hurler.

The good news is, several indicators last year provide hints to better results in 2012, as Jackson posted the best strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio and full-season home run rate (HR/9) of his career. His solid ERA is matched by a 3.73 xFIP, and his 3.8 WAR last year was tied for his career best.

And yet, he still finished with a very pedestrian WHIP, an alarming 10.1 hits per nine innings (H/9) rate and suffered a spike in line-drive percentage.

So even if we might not see anything new from the right-hander this year, there’s hope his new environment will provide a boost to his fantasy value. Joining a rotation headlined by Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmermann, Jackson enters spring training with a guaranteed job but without the pressure of carrying what should be a competitive Nationals ballclub.

Park-wise, Nationals Park plays fairly neutral, so he while his new digs might not do him any favors, he shouldn’t fear pitching there, either.

The team’s lineup boasts several intriguing pieces in guys like Danny Espinosa, Ian Desmond and Wilson Ramos, all of whom have the potential to build off their 2011 campaigns. But for a squad that finished 12th in the National League in runs scored, it’s hard to project Jackson working with run support to spare, especially when much of the team’s offensive output depends on Ryan Zimmerman and Jayson Werth bouncing back from sub-par 2011 seasons.

Still, the best aspect of being a rotation man for the Nationals is enjoying the air support of the team’s sterling bullpen. The late-inning tag team of Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard just gained a new friend in Brad Lidge, who will only help a pen that finished fifth in baseball with a 3.20 ERA last year. And although the team missed out on the Prince Fielder sweepstakes, they won’t have to deal with his iron glove at first base, either.

So while you shouldn’t expect Jackson to learn any new tricks at this point in his career, he’s certainly someone who brings upside to this year’s draft (especially with an average draft position currently around 226) and perhaps stands to break the 15-win mark that has eluded him so far.

Indians add Casey Kotchman, Russ Canzler at first base

Still not ready to sign off on Matt LaPorta as a full-time major-leaguer, the Indians Thursday signed Casey Kotchman to a one-year, $3 million deal. Kotchman, who turns 29 later this month, posted an .800 OPS and .351 wOBA in 563 plate appearances for the Rays last year after signing a minor-league contract, though his .306 average was boosted by a .335 BABIP, a mark more than 50 points above his career average.

Five major-league plate appearances aside, Canzler, the 2011 International League MVP, has spent his entire career in the minors, where he’s posted a .280/.351/.469 line. Designated for assignment by the Rays in order to make room for Jeff Keppinger, Canzler, who turns 26 in April, has spent the bulk of his playing time at first base, though he’s also appeared at third and both corner outfield positions during his eight minor league seasons.

His versatility and right-handed power could give him a leg up on making the club out of spring training, though as FanGraph’s David Golebiewski points out, Canzler enjoyed home fields at the Double- and Triple-A levels that favor right-handed hitters.

Of course, the biggest obstacle facing both players is available playing time. Carlos Santana started 63 games at first base last season, a trend unlikely to be reversed given his status as the team’s best offensive player. Shelley Duncan could challenge Canzler for a spot out of spring training. And LaPorta, forever to be branded as the centerpiece of the CC Sabathia trade, wouldn’t spend much time toiling in the minor leagues if he comes out swinging in 2012.

So while both Kotchman and Canzler have value, I’d be leery of drafting them in all but the deepest of AL-only leagues.

Odds and ends from around the majors

• The Padres added another starter—and right-handed bat off the bench—by inking Micah Owings to a one-year, $1 million contract. Owings, 29, made 33 appearances (29 in relief) for the D’Backs last year, posting a 8-0 record with a 3.57 ERA and 1.254 WHIP. A crowded rotation of Tim Stauffer, Clayton Richard, Edinson Volquez, Cory Luebke and Dustin Moseley likely will push Owings to the bullpen full-time, though a significant injury could change that.

• The ageless Livan Hernandez agreed to a minor-league contract with the Astros, giving the team some rotation depth as it enters its final National League season. Hernandez, who turns 37 later this month, has made at least 29 starts each season dating back to 1998 and posted an 8-13 record, 4.47 ERA and 1.397 WHIP last season in 175.1 innings for the Nationals.

In nine career starts at Minute Maid Park, Hernandez is 6-2 with a 3.98 ERA and has allowed five home runs in 61 innings.

• Carlos Guillen has returned to the Mariners in the form of a backup infielder thanks to a spring training invitation. At 36 years old, Guillen’s previous two seasons have been decimated by injuries, and he was limited to just 28 games last year due to knee and wrist injuries. If healthy, he could see action backing up Kyle Seager at third base and/or Mike Carp in the outfield.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:27am

Friday, February 03, 2012

Supplementing the dynasty rankings (Part 2)

This is the second of two articles covering my top young fantasy players for dynasty leagues who are starting the season aged 25 or younger. In case you missed part one, which covered the players I ranked No. 1 thru 15, you can catch it by clicking here. Before breaking down players No. 15 through 30, a quick recap of my list is in order:

Rank  Name
1     Justin Upton
2     Mike Stanton
3     Clayton Kershaw
4     Desmond Jennings
5     Felix Hernandez
6     Matt Moore
7     Stephen Strasburg
8     Carlos Santana
9     Andrew McCutchen
10    Jay Bruce
11    Jesus Montero
12    Mike Trout
13    Bryce Harper
14    Jason Heyward
15    Mat Latos
16    Michael Pineda
17    Yu Darvish
18    Buster Posey
19    Pablo Sandoval
20    Madison Bumgarner
21    Brett Lawrie
22    Eric Hosmer
23    Daniel Hudson
24    Logan Morrison
25    Tommy Hanson

The next five
26    Starlin Castro
27    Matt Wieters
28    Yovanni Gallardo
29    Dee Gordon
30    Paul Goldschmidt

And five more
31    Jason Kipnis
32    Jeremy Hellickson
33    Craig Kimbrell
34    Dustin Ackley
35    Cameron Maybin

Plus two guys it pained me to cut
36    Anthony Rizzo
37    Brandon Belt

16. Michael Pineda: In my mind, Pineda has a slightly lower ceiling than Latos despite being a few years his junior. Like Latos, Pineda has a mid-90s fastball and power slider that he leans heavily upon (31.5 percent slider usage in 2011), resulting in a high strikeout rate (9.1 K/9). Pineda is an extreme flyball pitcher (36.3 percent groundball rate) with a potential platoon split. That's not to knock on Pineda's value, only to justify why he is ranked below Latos.

Pineda has been healthy for the past two seasons, but he had elbow issues that limited his workload in 2009. His heavy slider usage also has to be a red flag on any dynasty list. Some are questioning Pineda's 2012 potential given his move from spacious Safeco to batter-friendly New Yankee Stadium. Do not count me as one of the skeptics. I do not consider it conclusive by any means, but a glance at Katron's batted ball data for 2011 shows that Pineda's batted balls at home last year would not have resulted in any additional home runs if produced at New Yankee Stadium. To the contrary, Pineda might have allowed one or two fewer home runs if he called New Yankee Stadium his home park last year.

That is not to say that the change of scenery will help Pineda, but it does say that that the "leaving Safeco argument" might be a bit overblown here, leading to some improper perceptions about Pineda's 2012 potential. Surely, the AL East will likely be a greater challenge for Pineda than the AL West, but there is no reason he can't repeat and improve upon his 2012 numbers. Oliver forecasts a 3.33 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and just under a strikeout per inning for Pineda this season, and wins should be plentiful for the new Yankees pitcher. Work the anti-hype to your advantage this offseason. If you can get Pineda even at his "market value" right now, you could easily end up with a hugely profitable asset over the next few seasons.

17. Yu Darvish: Japan's top pitche is an enigma because it is hard to accurately forecast what a Japanese player is going to do in the majors leagues. For most, even the highly touted ones, the results have been pretty underwhelming. For every Hideki Matsui (who was supposed to be more powerful), there are 10 Kaz Matsuis. For every Ichiro Suzukis, there are many Tsuyoshi Nishiokas and Kosuke Fukudomes. And we all know how Daisuke Matsuzaka turned out for the Red Sox.

But then again, look at how Colby Lewis and Ryan Vogelsong's numbers played out when they returned stateside. Ditto on Takashi Saito (when healthy) and the early career of Hideo Nomo. My take on a player's Japanese league numbers is that they should be viewed on par with the performance of a player either in Double-A or Triple-A.

Even in that context, though, Darvish's numbers are undoubtedly elite. In the Nippon League, NPB, Darvish owns a career ERA just under two (1.99), with a sub-0.90 WHIP and more than a strikeout per inning with less than two walks per inning. That's not a great single season. That's his friggin' career.

Oliver, the projection system behind THT Forecasts, has a reputation as the best system at projecting players without previous major league playing time and has a major league equivalency chart that converts minor league and foreign league data in to "equivalent" major league production. In other words, Oliver gives us a decent sense of just how good a player's non-major league numbers would have played out in the major leagues.

Oliver's "worst" major league equivalency (MLE) calculation for Darvish was 2010. In 2010, Darvish's MLE was "only" a 2.49 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and 9.5 K/9 in a season where the major league average FIP and K/9 rates were 4.20 and 7.1, respectively. Oliver projects a +7.9 WAR campaign for him in 2012, the highest WAR it projects for any major league player next year—but even if you temper expectations, you have to expect something pretty elite, right?

Daisuke Matsuzaka's career NPB numbers pale in comparison to Darvish's (2.95 ERA, 8.9 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), he was not nearly as healthy in his career as Darvish, and even his "last season in the NPB" numbers did not stack up. Furthermore, Dice-K never had control anywhere near Darvish's caliber. Despite all that, you'd have to call Dice-K's first few major league seasons a relative success, right?

That's not to say Darvish is any guarantee. Just that lofty expectations that might need to be tempered should not be over-tempered. A Tim Lincecum or Dan Haren-like season is totally in the cards. Darvish is not ranked accordingly only because you cannot rank players based merely on your best expectations or their upside. You need to consider their downside and risks as well, and Darvish has no major league track record and the NPB tends to produce numbers that do not always translate well in the majors.

18. Buster Posey: Sidelined by a freak injury last season, Posey was well on his way to disappointing his drafters before losing the rest of his season to surgery. After a Rookie of the Year-worthy season, Posey hit only .284 with four home runs and 21 RBI over 45 games. Some were severely disappointed by Posey's power output last year (.105 ISO), but I did my best to temper his power expectations heading into 2011. As I discussed in the comment section of my 2010 dynasty rankings article:

"I do not buy into [Posey's] 2010 power...I rarely judge baseball players with my eyes, but I expect a .300/20 line and view 2010 as above his talent level... His home run profile is very pedestrian....I’m not discounting room for improvement, just my tempered expectations."

I pegged Posey's ceiling at 20 then, and there's no reason to bump that ceiling this year. Posey should certainly see an uptick in power from the .105 mark he posted last season, but I wouldn't expect anything above .180. Something closer to .165 might be more reasonable.

Still, that slightly-above-average power comes with a good batting average and middle-of-the-order slotting, so a .290/17/80 season could be in order. For a catcher, those numbers are golden. I rarely pay a premium for catchers (every time I have, the strategy has backfired), but if you are going pay a premium for any catcher, Posey might be the best "bargain" among the elites after Carlos Santana is off the board.

19. Pablo Sandoval: I was a big believer in Sandoval last year, and was rewarded handsomely for my faith. I was lucky enough to nab Kung Fu Panda is roughly 75 percent of my leagues, paying no more than $16 in any single league (well, other than Ottoneu). Last year, I did not rank Sandoval, noting that I "love[d] the potential, but his body type will not age well and he needs to prove that 2010, not 2009, was the fluke."

Sandoval did indeed show that 2010 was the fluke, and even lost a ton of weight in the offseason (don't worry, Pedro Alvarez found it all). Although Panda gained a little extra bulk as the season wore on, there is no reason to feel he cannot be equally as productive in 2012 as he was in 2011. Expect a .300 batting average this season (in addition to the next few years, barring some BABIP luck going the wrong way) with 25 home run power and 90 RBI potential out of the middle of the Giants lineup. He might even steal a couple of bases, and with Posey back, Pablo should get driven in more often (unless he gets too winded on the way to the plate).

With third base getting shallower and more injury-riddled every season since Alex Rodriguez signed baseball's most mammoth mistake of a contract, Sandoval is a solid source of above-average production where it counts. I would not be shocked to see the Panda off the board by the end of round five. And that's about where he belongs.

20. Madison Bumgarner: After instilling Giants fans and fantasy owners with a healthy dose of skepticism after dead arm and velocity dips issue a couple of years ago, Bumgarner used 2011 to show everyone why he was a top 10 overall draft pick in 2007.

Over 204.2 innings of work, Bumgarner produced a 3.21 ERA (a 3.10 xFIP, 2.67 FIP, 3.18 SIERRA, 3.12 tERA) with 191 strikeouts to 46 walks (4.2 K/BB) and a 1.21 WHIP (.322 BABIP-against). Among qualified pitchers last year (94), Bumgarner's ERA was merely "top 25." However, his xFIP ranked seventh in the league, his xFIP ranked fourth, his tERA ranked seventh and his SIERRA ranked eighth.

Bumgarner's numbers qualified him as a top 10 talent last season, which was leaps and bounds ahead of where I ranked him in the preseason (No. 31 overall among starting pitchers). Why the huge increase in value? A lot of it had to do with his vastly increased strikeout production. Bumgarner leaned hard on an electric slider (from 20.4 percent usage in 2010 to 32.4 percent usage in 2011) to induce a much higher number of whiffs (7.6 percent swinging strike rate in 2010, 9.2 percent in 2011), resulting in more strikeouts (22.6 percent, up from 18.2 percent the previous year). Bumgarner did this without sacrificing control—his walk rate remained constant, while his percentage of first strike pitches increased slightly.

Alas, sliders are a two-edged sword, and the very tool that has enabled Bumgarner to step into elite pitcher territory is the very thing that could make him a huge injury risk in subsequent seasons. Consider the following list of starting pitchers who have averaged a slider rate of or above the 25 percent threshold over the past 10 years (minimum 200 innings):

PLAYER                 SLIDER%
Randy Johnson          38.6%
Armando Galarraga      37.4%
Bud Norris             35.1%
Jon Lieber             34.3%
Brett Anderson         33.7%
Jorge Sosa             31.4%
Matt Clement           30.9%
Francisco Liriano      30.9%
Ryan Dempster          30.9%
Ervin Santana          30.9%
John Smoltz            30.7%
Brian Lawrence (who?)  30.2%
Jeremy Bonderman       30.2%
Tony Armas Jr.         29.1%
Ramon Ortiz            28.4%
Madison Bumgarner      28.2%
Felipe Paulino         27.7%
Ian Snell              27.1%
Johnny Cueto           27.0%
Byung-Hyun Kim         26.9%
Tommy Hanson           26.7%
Edwin Jackson          26.3%
Hiroki Kuroda          26.1%
Jason Jennings         26.0%
Randy Wells            25.9%
Josh Johnson           25.9%
Doug Waechter          25.6%
Chad Gaudin            25.5%
Ross Ohlendorf         25.2%

Almost every one of them has either undergone Tommy John surgery, sustained a serious arm shoulder/elbow injury, or just plain stinks at pitching. The latest victim was Brett Anderson, who I had ranked one slot ahead of Bumgarner heading into the 2011 season. Bumgarner clearly has top 10 or so starting pitcher talent potential, but when you consider the Giants' poor defense, the Giants' lack of offense (Posey's return should seriously enable that, as well as a consistent Brandon Belt presence), and a serious looming injury red flag (high slider usage), then you realize that that Bumgarner needs to be ranked lower than guys like Matt Moore. Upside + downside = cautiously optimistic.

21. Brett Lawrie: Lawrie was the Blue Jays' big prize for trading away talented starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. Heading into 2011, Lawrie was ranked the No. 40 overall prospect in the minors. His 2009 and 2010 seasons in Single-A and Double-A ball had been solid (composite .777 OPS in 2009 and a .797 OPS in 2010), but nothing special. He projected as a major league capable player with a relatively modest, but appealing ceiling. Most scouts loved Lawrie for possessing enough bat speed to hit for average with the upside to develop decent pop over time.

Last season saw that power develop in a big way. After hitting a combined 21 home runs over 253 games split between Single-A and Double-A in 2009 and 2010, Lawrie blasted 18 home runs in Triple-A for the Jays over the first half of the season. That, plus his .347/.414/.647 triple slash line over 73 games, left many wondering just what the Blue Jays were waiting for before giving Lawrie a cal-lup (maybe we can blame how the team previously developed Travis Snider, or sheer service time greed).

Upon graduation to the majors, Lawrie continued to produce at a similar rate as his 2011 MLE indicated, hitting .293/.373/.580 with nine home runs. Those numbers are excellent for a third baseman. When you consider his 13.7 percent stolen base per time on base rate in the minors (68.9 percent success rate) and seven stolen bases over 43 games at the major league level, the whole picture of Lawrie's production becomes elite.

So why is he ranked 21, behind fellow hot corner player Pablo Sandoval? The answer again lies in the risk. Lawrie's 2011 power breakout could be legit, but how legit is it? After posting a .180 ISO in Single-A and .154 ISO in Double-A, you have to wonder how much of his .308 Triple-A ISO and .287 major league ISO Lawrie can repeat in 2012, especially given his two hand injuries last season. I am not saying that he is not healthy by now; I am just noting the things you need to be aware of.

Oliver projects a solid .180+ ISO from Lawrie this year, with 20 home run potential if he stays healthy enough to accumulate 600+ plate appearances. Oliver also forecasts a .280 batting average and 10-15 stolen bases. Those are undoubtedly strong numbers, and Lawrie, of course, has the potential to top them. I think Oliver's forecast is pretty spot on, though I would project Lawrie for a slightly higher batting average. You find me another .285/20/15 capable third baseman for 2012 that is not named David Wright and I will call you a liar.

22. Eric Hosmer: Last year, I got some flak for leaving Hosmer and Mike Moustakas off my top 25 dynasty players list. I feel a little vindicated noting that only Ben Pritchett ranked Moustakas in his top 30 this year (Josh Shepardson ranked Moustakas No. 35 and Nick Fleder did not rank him at all), but Hosmer was clearly a mistake.

My logic on keeping Hosmer, like Harper, off the list is that I thought he was too far away from the majors. I did not expect to see Hosmer until 2012, and spending a few bucks to get in on the ground floor of a prospect like Hosmer, who might spend a year-plus in the minors before making his major league debut, seemed like a silly waste of resources, especially for leagues with escalating salary rules for players.

Well now, Hosmer is up and he needs to be recognized. His big knock is that he is a only a first baseman and positional relativity sets the bar high. The average AL first baseman hit .271/.340/.452 last year with 24 home runs and 89 RBI. Hosmer projects for similar production, but with a much more elite batting average. And the batting average for a slight power hitter is what separates him from the rest of the pack. With no real speed or elite power, Hosmer is likely not going to crack any top 30 fantasy player lists as a first baseman anytime soon—at least without some luck or a little breakout—but he should consistently rate within the top 60 or so.

23. Daniel Hudson: The White Sox gave up an ace-caliber arm to acquire Edwin Jackson for only a year. If you think that that sounds an awful lot like what they did with Gio Gonzalez and Nick Swisher, you are not crazy. There are few pitchers in the majors who throw a mid-90s fastball, hit first pitch strikes 60 percent of the time, and induce swings-and-misses 10 percent of the time. Say what you will about his sub-7.9 strikeouts per nine rate last season. I fully expect that figure to rise this year.

Oliver sees Hudson capable of at least an extra strikeout per nine innings for each of the next six years while keeping the walks just as low as they were last season. Oliver's six year average forecast for Hudson is a 3.50 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP with 7.7 strikeouts per nine rate and a 3.4 strikeout-to-walk ratio. How many pitchers can you say that about? Oh, and his groundball rate rose five percent last season. His home ballpark and the defense behind him are his only real knocks.

24. Logan Morrison: Just 24 years old this year, LoMo turned in a solid rookie campaign last season that was limited by a demotion for ~~tweeting too much~~ "struggling in the majors." If only you could call a .344 wOBA (115 wRC+) with a 10.3 percent walk rate, a .221 ISO and 23 home runs over 123 games "struggling." Oh, okay. I suppose his defense was pretty awful, limiting his real life value to +1.0 WAR per Fangraphs.

But fantasy owners do not have to worry about a player's defense (just Google Adam Dunn for proof). LoMo's overall line was a solid .247/.330/.468 last year, but his BABIP (.265) was a bit lower than it should have been based on his peripherals. By xBABIP standards, a .270/.370/.500 line is entirely in the cards this season and in the near future.

For what it's worth, Oliver seems to agree, projecting a .266/.360/.455 line over the next four seasons. LoMo is an All-Star in the making, and with foul-mouthed, filterless Ozzie Guillen replacing Jack "what is this new twitter-fangled-thing" McKeon as the Marlins' manager, it's much less likely LoMo, even if he does not throttle back on the twittering, gets demoted for ~~tweeting too much~~ "struggling in the majors" this year.

25. Tommy Hanson: Enough has been written about Tommy Hanson that little needs to be added about his upside. I ranked him top 20 among all starting pitchers heading into the 2011 season, and before the shoulder injury, at least through the first half of the season, Hanson was poised to do that and more.

Of course that shoulder injury was severe enough to drop Hanson's production off the map and end his season prematurely. Shoulder injuries scare me as much as elbow injuries, and are always something to be seriously concerned about. That is why Hanson is ranked so low here. If he is fully healed and healthy and can stay healthy, he'll again be a top 10-20 overall starting pitcher barring bad luck. If not, he could be a total bust for fantasy owners. I think the former is more likely than the latter, and Hanson could make for a good "buy low" dynasty candidate if you have faith in his arm long term.

For what it's worth, the Braves are going to be cautious with Hanson in 2012 and do not plan to rush him back to full arm strength, which could limit his 2012 value at "the expense" of a healthier 2013 and beyond. Invest accordingly.

26. Starlin Castro: Shortstop is a shallow position for offense these days, but I need to see more power and little more speed before I crown Castro an elite young player. Entering his age 22 season, Castro has plenty of time to meet those expectations and fill out some of his projectability. A lot of Castro's real life value is based on his defense (at least if he stops making so many errors). Don't call me a homer, don't call me a hater. Castro is a guy I really like, but I need to see a little more before I rank him in my top 25.

27. Matt Wieters: 2011 was a big brea out year for Wieters, especially in the second half, but it was not long enough a performance to make me forget about 2009 and 2010. Wieters turns 26 this year and is far from old, but he is entering the peak years of his prime without much of a track record. Last season could have been a legitimate breakout, but I need to see a little more before I am a firm believer that he's worth spending big on at the draft board.

28. Yovanni Gallardo: Tons of potential, but too wild for my taste. Gallardo has improved his control over the past few years, but last year was the first season where his walk rate was below the league average. Not many players have Gallardo's strikeout potential, but Gallardo seems to be a fantasy player with more hype than substance. Maybe that's just because I am living in Wisconsin right now, or maybe I am just over-thinking his declining strikeout numbers over the past few years. Regardless, I think people are a bit optimistic about what Gallardo can do.

Last season saw Gallardo post the best ERA of his career in any season in which he reached the 100 innings pitched mark, but even then his ERA was still a tad over the 3.50 threshold in a year where seemingly every pitcher had a sub-4.00 ERA. On the bright side, Gallardo's xFIP has improved each of the past few years -- from 3.71 in 2009 to 3.29 in 2010 to 3.19 in 2011. On the flip side of that coin, however, that improvement in raw numbers has actually been only a four percent improvement in xFIP relative to the league..., The point here is that Gallardo has too many question marks, at least in my estimation, to rank ahead of the guys I put ahead of him on this list.

29. Dee Gordon: Elite raw speed is always valuable, and Gordon has plenty of it. How much speed is elite raw speed? Try 73 stolen bases in Single-A ball in 2009, 55 stolen bases in Double-A in 2010, and 56 stolen bases between the majors and minors (combined 129 games) last season. Gordon does not strike out much, but he walks even less and hits for almost no power. On-base percentage is the key statistic for base stealers, and because he does not walk much, Gordon is going to need to post high batting averages to be truly valuable.

If hitting for a high batting average, he'll be a super-elite shortstop. If not, he'll be Everth Cabrera-like. Who? Exactly. Oliver projects a .270 batting average and .310 on-base for Gordon over the next few years, meaning luck might decide his ultimate value. Do you want to buy a young Juan Pierre-ian lottery ticket this season?

30. Paul Goldschmidt: Is he the next Adam Dunn or the next Rob Deer? Only time will tell. The only thing I can affirm is that his power is legit. Unless he cuts down that strikeout rate, though, his batting average risk may outweigh his home run and RBI upside...

LIGHTNING ROUND: Covering the "and five more" guys:

Jason Kipnis has position eligibility on his side with solid 15+/15+, possibly 20/20, potential as he enters his prime, but he's going to have to prove he's capable of hitting higher than .270 and cracking the 15/15 plateau before we start giving him serious consideration as one of baseball's elite. Kipnis has plenty of potential, but there's more "projection" and a lower ceiling than some of his above ranked peers, which slots him just outside the top 30. He is the most likely person on the outside looking in who can rocket up the rankings with a strong season in 2012.

Jeremy Hellickson could easily be the next David Price, and 2011 could have been his Price-ian sophomore season with less-than-exciting peripherals following plenty of minor league hype and a solid end-of-season debut for the Rays in 2010. Seeing a player's strikeout rate fall by a third in the AL East while his walk rate nearly doubles and his groundball rate falls slightly (albeit while simultaneously producing elite pop-up numbers, which may or may not be a pitcher skill) raises too many red flags to safely slot him ahead of players like Gallardo, with a stronger track record and weaker competition, or Tommy Hanson, who is one of baseball's top 10-20 starters when healthy. A strong peripheral bounce-back could make this ranking look silly.

I think relief pitchers, particularly closers, are overrated, but if any closer deserves recognition of value on his own merit, it's Craig Kimbrell. Kimbrell posted super-Marmolian strikeout numbers with respectable control numbers (his 3.74 BB/9 last year was above the major league average walks per nine rate of 3.11 last year, but his 3.97 K/BB ratio was leaps and bounds ahead of the league rate of 2.30). As with any pitcher who logs under 80 innings, his value is too limited to warrant top 30 consideration. Sure, the strikeout numbers will likely be elite for a reliever, and the saves aplenty, but we're still looking at a one-category player who will merely help in ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts. Stated otherwise, Kimbrell is a player who is more valuable rounding out a team than anchoring it. You can likely find 80 percent or so of Kimbrell's non-saves value at a fraction of the cost in drafting elite non-closing relievers like Jonny Venters. Sorry Craig.

Is Dustin Ackley really the consolation prize for the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes some thought he was a few years ago? My best comp in terms of expected production from a second baseman fantasy hitter, at least at this point in his career based on his professional league record, is the Braves' vintage version of Kelly Johnson from back in the day. Take that as positively or pejoratively as you might.

Much of Cameron Maybin's value comes from real life stuff like defense and position. Even if his power never materializes, the Marlins will likely come to regret trading him for a middling reliever. If the power ever comes, Maybin will be as valuable as B.J. Upton. Based on his handedness, Petco is a better home park for his "touted" power than the Marlins' own stadium ever was. If his power plateaus, however, Maybin will be just another waiver wire outfield speedster with limited batting average value and decent runs contributions. That may be useful, but it's nothing you can call the cornerstone of a fantasy roster.

That leaves us with with two players from my list, the guys I ranked 36 and 37. I view both of them as lottery cards and strong late-round fliers for dynasty formats. Rizzo has top-tier left-handed power potential, and his move from Petco to Wrigley should do wonders for fantasy owners. Until he learns to hit both handed pitching, however, he's just going to be a Seth Smith type. Brandon Belt, meanwhile, cannot be faulted for his unproductive major league numbers last year because he did not get consistent playing time or a real chance. I am a lot more bearish on Belt's upside than most, but if given consistent a- bats he could be a Freddie Freeman type—a solid corner infield or fifth outfielder type.

PHEW! That was a lot. Are you still there? If so, give yourself a pat on the back. Heck, give me a pat on the back for finding the time to write all that. I would love to get your feedback on the rankings, individual player analysis, and your own lists below. Also, look out starting mid/late February for my preseason Top 20 players by position lists.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 3:15am

Thursday, February 02, 2012

We will, we will (mock) you

The first Hardball Times Mock Draft was conducted last week, if that isn’t already abundantly clear from analysis articles written by participants Derek Ambrosino, Michael Stein, and Ben Pritchett. The draft results can be found here, and my team:

1B Eric Hosmer KC R4 P2
1B Paul Goldschmidt ARI R11 P11
2B Ian Kinsler TEX R2 P2
2B Jason Kipnis CLE R9 P11
3B Brett Lawrie TOR R5 P11
3B Brent Morel CHW R24 P2
SS J.J. Hardy BAL R12 P2
C Carlos Santana CLE R3 P11
C Ramon Hernandez COL R26 P2
OF Justin Upton ARI R1 P11
OF Adam Jones BAL R8 P2
OF Logan Morrison MIA R13 P11
OF Lorenzo Cain KC R15 P11
OF Brandon Belt SF R19 P11
OF Carlos Lee HOU R20 P2
DH Edwin Encarnacion TOR R17 P11
SP Stephen Strasburg WAS R6 P2
SP Matt Garza CHC R7 P11
SP Dan Hudson ARI R10 P2
SP Max Scherzer DET R14 P2
SP Doug Fister DET R16 P2
SP Mark Buehrle MIA R21 P11
SP Edwin Jackson FA R22 P2
SP Ricky Nolasco MIA R23 P11
SP Brett Anderson OAK R25 P11
RP Rafael Betancourt COL R18 P2

In no particular order…

Infatuated

Ramon Hernandez, 26th round, second pick (302nd overall)
In two catcher leagues, the strategy is often either one of two: invest heavily in your backstops—and draft two highly regarded catchers in the single-digit rounds—or bottom-feed for “the guy who will hurt you the least.” Ding, ding! Hernandez may be the best dollar catcher you can find (we’ll call the 26th round equivalent to the dollar-player point in auctions), providing home run value without low batting average. Where a guy like Rod Barajas will kill you in batting average with what seems like a nightly 0-fer, Hernandez will provide an above-average batting average with the same power potential. Yes, he was a 12-team mixed league catcher last year, clocking in at No. 20 overall in catcher value (thank you, Baseball Monster), and add Coors Field to the list of pros. I know… enough about my second catcher, already.

Stephen Strasburg, sixth round, second pick (62nd overall)
Somewhat embarrassing love for Strasburg aside, I feel as though he’s is an excellent value in the early sixth round. Pitching is extremely deep this year, and it’s comforting to know that I had the choice among Strasburg, Yovani Gallardo, and Madison Bumgarner here. Ultimately, if you have an innings cap, it’s a no-brainer—Strasburg may not give you 180 innings this year, but you won’t be able to tell, in all likelihood, from his strikeout totals. His WHIP and strikeout upside is immense (like you need me to tell you that), and acquiring Strasburg gave me the freedom to select a Doug Fister type later in the draft without worries of his strikeout shortcomings.

Brandon Belt, 19th round, 11th pick (227th overall)
Curse you, Aubrey Huff. Belt, a preseason favorite after his excellent Triple-A season and spring training, was teased with irregular playing time, demotions and promotions, and unwise managerial decisions all while gathering 209 underwhelming plate appearances. I say the injustice is over! Huff was incredibly inept per a number of metrics (a negative WAR, a sub .300 wOBA, a below-average .306 OBP, and a .246 batting average), and Belt is itching to break out just as he was a year ago. He might get time in whatever part of the outfield not being occupied by Melky Cabrera, and Aubrey Huff will yield more plate appearances to him, all contributing to what will surely be his breakout season. If he has a clear-cut job and a way to 500+ plate appearances, my money’s on him being a top-20 first baseman option. Couple that with his outfield eligibility, and you have a downright steal in the 19th round.

Lorenzo Cain, 15th round, 11th pick (179th overall)
All aboard the Cain train! He may not know how to take a walk, but Cain has the potential to be an asset in all five categories, depending on whether his Triple-A power output was smoke and mirrors. Cain will beat out enough infield hits to maintain a high batting average, and, if given the green light, easily has the speed to steal 20+ bases. Perhaps Bill James is bullish, but a 10/73/58/22/.284 line from Cain would be robbery if acquired in the 15th round.

Edwin Encarnacion, 17th round, 11th pick (203rd overall)
He has a lot going for him, including tri-position eligibility. The ninth ranked third baseman last year (thanks again, Baseball Monster) can be found in the 17th round. He’s hitting in an offensive juggernaut, perhaps, based off of RotoChamp speculation, behind Jose Bautista and Adam Lind, with Brett Lawrie providing protection. I bet he gets more than 480 at-bats this year, and last time he hit the 500 at-bat threshold, he hit 26 homers. Just sayin’.

Rafael Betancourt, 18th round, second pick (206th overall)
After a relief-pitcher binge in the 16th and 17th rounds, in which question marks such as Andrew Bailey, Brandon League, Jordan Walden, and Chris Perez were taken, I was ecstatic to get Betancourt near the end of the closer wave. Just because Betancourt has never held the closer job before doesn’t mean he is incapable, and he’s a far superior pitcher to many of the incumbents who went before him. Home runs didn’t ruin his first two (and a half) seasons in Colorado, so why assume that to happen now? Top 10 closer potential.

Ian Kinsler, second round, second pick (14th overall)
Pitching is so deep I didn’t even consider one of the elite bodies in the first two (nay, four) rounds. Kinsler clocked in as the 12th best position player (I love you, Baseball Monster), trailing slightly my first round pick Justin Upton only because of his .253 batting average. His BABIP was nearly 40 points below his career mark, and with just a .260 batting average, he would’ve been a top five-position player last year (trailing Matt Kemp, Jacoby Ellsbury, Ryan Braun and Curtis Granderson).

Adam Jones, eighth round, second pick (86th overall)
Risky call, but if Jones can take a step forward from his fairly excellent (in fantasy terms, at least) 2011 campaign, he could be a huge steal. As it is, he’s a good value pick; he returned mid-sixth round value in a 12-team league last year.

Matt Garza, seventh round, 11th pick (83rd overall)
More fun with numbers: If Matt Garza had won two more games last year, he would’ve been the 18th ranked starting pitcher in terms of fantasy value. If he had 13 wins instead of 10: the 15th ranked starter. One more than that, and he would’ve been the 10th ranked starter. Maybe he gets a trade out of Chi-town, or maybe there is a fire lit under the collective bum of the Cubs by new manager Dale Sveum, but Garza’s a steal in the seventh round, and if the wins go his way, he could be propelled to ace-status.

Ambivalent

Carlos Santana, third round, 11th pick (35th overall)
Here I’m torn. Santana is a huge asset in three categories (runs, runs batted in and home runs), yet may be a batting average liability even with a bit more luck. His strikeout rate rose and caused the dip in batting average more so than his BABIP did, and owners might have to live with a sub-.250 average. He was only the fourth most valuable catcher last season, though, and Victor Martinez is gone and Alex Avila isn’t such a stud as it seems. Thus, the top drafted catcher will be a fight between Santana, who is younger and therefore possessive of some untapped upside (in theory) and Mike Napoli, who will never have a better season than his 2011 one. I’d rather have Miguel Montero in the 10th, I guess…

Paul Goldschmidt, 11th round, 11th pick (131st overall)
Upton, Kinsler, Santana, Hosmer, Lawrie, Jones and Kipnis all might hit 20 home runs next year (perhaps Kipnis’ inclusion on the list is too bullish, but it’s more for illustrative purposes), so Goldschmidt’s selection here was pretty silly, in retrospect. I needed speed and starting pitching more than I did power, and already had my first baseman drafted. Still, in the 11th round, Goldschmidt has some value. I suppose, in a legitimate league, I would’ve been happy to have Goldschmidt as an asset to sell in later trading.

Disgusted

Eric Hosmer, fourth round, second pick (38th overall)
I’m as big of an Eric Hosmer fan as any, and he has the chance to be a five-category asset unlike any other first baseman (he’ll likely lead all first baseman in steals). That said, first base is fairly deep, and seeing Freddie Freeman taken at the end of the 10th round bummed me out. Freeman won’t steal more than a handful of bases, but he has otherwise similar numbers and perhaps some batting average upside beyond .282. Additionally, a guy like Michael Cuddyer put up similarly valuable numbers to Hosmer and now plays in Colorado. He was taken in the late eighth round. I wouldn’t call myself disgusted, but I’d take back this pick in a minute.

Doug Fister, 16th round, second pick (170th overall)
Definitely underestimated the Fielder signing domino effect, and also overestimated his 2011 season (uh, don’t forget, Nick, that he put up 4.00+ ERAs in back-to-back years… with a stout defense behind him, in a pitcher’s park). Would rather have Shaun Marcum in retrospect.

Ricky Nolasco, 23rd round, 11th pick (275th overall)
In 2008, he was the 12th most valuable fantasy pitcher.
In 2009, he was the 53rd most valuable fantasy pitcher.
In 2010, he was the 68th most valuable fantasy pitcher.
In 2011, he was the 238th most valuable fantasy pitcher.
I’ve shamed myself. I’ve shamed myself. I’ve shamed myself.

Mark Buehrle, 21st round, 11th pick (251st overall)
Yikes. What was I thinking here? Well, I’d been looking at Buehrle’s WAR numbers a lot to dissect his signing with the Miami Marlins, and realized he was quite a solid pitcher. I guess it snuck into my head during the proceedings and I had the devil on my shoulder saying, “Go for it! You have Strasburg and Garza and Scherzer! No need for strikeouts!) Little did I know that Marky Mark barely cracked the top 70 starting pitchers? Can I use my mulligan?

Brent Morel, 24th round, second pick (278th overall)
It was the 24th round, so I can cut myself some slack. That said, I should’ve burned this pick on a player with more upside than Morel. Maybe he’ll go 15-10 with a little bit of luck, but better fliers would have been: Pedro Alvarez, Jason Kubel, Casey McGehee, or even Yonder Alonso if you wanted another hitter, and David Robertson, Daniel Bard, and Rex Brothers if you wanted another pitcher.

J.J. Hardy, 12th round, second pick (134th overall)
If Hardy plays in 150 games, then I’ll take back this disgust and have a more neutral attitude towards this pick. Still, how could I have been so blinded by his resurgence? A good player by all means, Hardy was worth a lot last year in real life (fWAR of 4.8) and in fantasy (30 homers), yet still lagged just behind Jhonny Peralta in value. I bought him on a bit of a power binge, but didn’t need another 25-home run hitter at this juncture. I did deserve it for taking Daniel Hudson before Dee Gordon, expecting the latter to be there for me in the late 11th. He was taken, of course, with the next pick.

What did I learn?

Pitching is deep, but don’t be blind…
Just because pitching is deep doesn’t mean you need to load up on position players in the single-digit rounds. I took Jason Kipnis, for example, in the eighth round, which strikes me as somewhat unnecessary in retrospect considering the offensive juggernaut I put together in the first five rounds. I was coming off of back-to-back starting pitching selections, but I wasn’t quick enough to self-critique; If I said pitching was deep, and therefore waited heavily on pitching, it’s okay to select three in a row. I let my subconscious rule the day, and missed out on Jordan Zimmerman, Brandon Beachy or Anibal Sanchez because I couldn’t scrape the thought that pitching was deep. Shame.

Don’t have a quick trigger finger…
Also known as “study the draft board before you pick.” Perhaps it was an aberration, but it did not even occur to me that Ryan Zimmerman was on the board in the beginning of the fourth round, and I would have at least considered Zimmerman over Hosmer, which would’ve altered the entire course of my draft. It was a silly mistake—and we all make them—and there are no extra points for drafting your guy after 23 seconds of consideration instead of a minute and 23 seconds.

Constantly self-evaluate…
I made the mistake of chatting with co-drafters and watching basketball during the mock draft, and the nature of online drafts is such that the Internet might distract you, as it would during your day job. I should’ve, in retrospect, been constantly tweaking my “wish list,” targeting sleepers, and looking at strengths and weaknesses in my roster at various points in the draft, and I should’ve been studying my competition for points of weakness and demand in the market.

Draft who you want, when you want…
Gosh, how many times have you heard this one? I’m reminded of it every single time I draft, though, and Dee Gordon was taken one pick after I made an ill-advised bet that he’d be on the board for an entire go-round, and I missed on Jason Motte because I thought the early 16th round was a reach for him. That’s nonsense. In context, you can justify most any borderline decision in one of these drafts, and a Jason Motte, who has never had a full-year of closer experience anywhere, may be a reach if he’s drafted in the early 16th on average (again, I use the phrase “may” because he could very well provide great value at that draft position). But you are not the mean; you are a random value that feeds into the mean! Reach away (within logical limits).

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:22am

Wednesday, February 01, 2012

Are you mocking me?

So I guess I’m next in line to talk about the THT Fantasy mock draft and my team. Instead of going pick by pick, I’m going to address this in more of a narrative-based way. I have to say that my first observation is that I was not nearly prepared enough had I been having to participate in a real draft with fellow “experts” at this time. Is that obvious from the team I drafted? I don’t know; I’ll let you be the judge of that.

For what it’s worth, the Mock Draft Central projected standings had my team mid-pack. Due to how it counts the bench, I think I was shortchanged a bit because my “bench” consists of pitchers who would be playing regularly, who are per-inning K-monsters and big helps in the rate stats, areas in which the tool projected me as weak.

So, here’s my team:

C: Brian McCann (5 - 56)
C: Joe Mauer (6 – 65)
1B: Justin Morneau (11 – 128)
2B: Robinson Cano (1 – 8)
SS Erick Aybar (14 – 152)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4 – 41)
CI: Gaby Sanchez (17 – 200)
MI: Ryan Roberts (13 – 137)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (2 – 17)
OF: Carl Crawford (3 – 32)
OF: Jayson Werth (9 -104)
OF: Lucas Duda (20 – 233)
OF: Andres Torres (23 – 272)
DH (UTIL): David Ortiz (10 – 113)
BN: Casey McGehee (24 – 281)

P: Tommy Hanson (7 – 80)
P: Mat Latos (8 - 89)
P: Ervin Santana (14 – 161)
P: Wandy Rodriguez (18 – 209)
P: Jhoulys Chacin (19 – 233)
P: Johan Santana (21 – 248)
P: Ryan Madson (15 – 176)
P: Andrew Bailey (16 – 185)
P: Matt Capps (22 – 257)
BN: David Robertson (25 – 296)
BN: Tyler Clippard (26 – 305)

And, here are the full draft results.

You waited a long time to grab a pitcher

I was the second-to-last drafter to select a starting pitcher. Only Brad Johnson waited longer, selecting his ace in the same round as I chose mine but a few picks later, as per the snake format. Given that dynamic, I think I actually assembled a fair competitive rotation without investing too much. I certainly could struggle for wins, but I don’t advocate drafting for wins too much anyway.

I thought I supplemented my middling rotation well by taking two closers who should help with the rates and then fortifying the K-potential and rate stats of my team further by adding Robertson and Clippard in the last rounds. Madson, Bailey, Robertson, and Clippard should combine for 260-plus innings of 2.00-ish ERA, 1.15-ish WHIP and 280-plus strikeouts. This certainly helps a staff that may lack a true ace.

If Latos and Hanson are fantastic, as they might be, I actually could make out really well on pitching. I’m optimistic about Ervin Santana as well. And, if Johan Santana can provide anything, that would be great. At pick No. 248, I had to be willing to find out.

That’s fine, but stop pretending you also don’t have Matt Capps on your team

Okay, guilty as charged. I’ll muster lukewarm four-sided defense of this though.

One, I’ve written before about how I feel it’s important to have more than your “fair share” of closers. Going from two to three closers in a league that averages 2.5 closers per team attacks the standings at a leverage point. Therefore, if I get some saves from him, those saves will have direct impact on the standings and ensure that I stay in the top half of the standings. So, having a third closer is more important than who that actual closer is.

Two, Capps was the last remaining closer with a designated job heading into the season. Refer back to (1) as to why it I thought it was important to draft him there.

Three, unless Joel Zumaya can prove his health, the Twins bullpen doesn’t look to have many other “closer types,” so I’m not sure there are great candidates to challenge Capps for his job even if he falters.

Four, the rest of my relief corps will compensate for any poor rate stats Capps may post.

You have a lot of players who need to rebound from last season

Why, yes, I do. I put my money where my mouth is. I often claim that I prefer betting on established talent to bounce back than on less proven younger players to live up to the hype or make the leap. Mauer, Morneau, Zimmerman, Crawford, Werth, Torres, Latos, Hanson, Santana, Capps and McGehee are all players I’m betting on bouncing back from either injury of disappointing performance.

Do I think all of these players will rebound to their vintage form? Of course not. Some will bounce back all the way, some will bounce back part of the way, and some will founder again. But I don’t need most of these players to bounce back all the way to draw value from most of these picks.

I can buy that argument for most of your picks, but Justin Morneau?

I didn’t think it was THAT early to gamble on Morneau, but many in the draft room did. My selection of Mourneau was really a double-down on the risk/reward proposition. I did not have a first baseman on my roster—note, first base isn’t as deep as many think it is—and he (and Kendrys Morales) seemed to be the only two players left who had the potential to produce big-time numbers at a position most rely on heavily for fantasy production.

I figured if Morneau bounces back, I get a big reward. If he falls, how different is the production I’d get at that point from the expected production of the next crop of first sackers? In fact, there were only four first basemen selected between Mourneau and Sanchez, two of whom were Morales and Mark Trumbo, neither of whom have guaranteed jobs.

So while I did risk the opportunity cost of that pick at another position, I think that sequence actually improves the overall range of possible outcomes for me at first base. Sanchez could just as easily return No. 128 value and Morneau No. 200. That would work out fine, too. I also have Big Papi at my DH/Util spot, who helps shoulder the classic first base-production archetype load, as well.

What about the two-ace catcher move; did you plan that?

Not really, but I saw the opportunity and wanted to try it. My normal strategy in two-catcher leagues is to get both of my starters in about rounds nine–14, looking for wherever I think I see value in acquiring two catchers in roughly the No. 8-16 ranks at the position—one guy toward the back end of the first distribution and the second toward the front end of the second go-around of options.

Here, I thought McCann would have gone sooner than he did, so I decided to pounce. Then I told myself that Mauer could be a huge steal in a two-catcher league if he’s healthy and my second catcher, so I decided I would take the plunge if he stuck around for my next pick, and he did. This gives me a big-time positional advantage, which is more important in a two-catcher league because the back-end players are really questionable.

Further, it’s not as if there were so many players with ceilings higher than Mauer’s when I took him anyway. The two other options I strongly considered were Brandon Phillips and Kevin Youkilis. But in a mock scenario, I really want to see how this strategy would work out.

So, how do you think it did work out?

Not so bad. I don’t think I sacrificed my first pitcher there because both Latos and Hanson were in my group of the next five or so best pitchers out there, and I got both of them anyhow.

Where I think I did sacrifice is in my outfield. I’m known for building real strong outfields early in my regular leagues—sometimes I feel like I shoot myself in the foot by doing this because I often wind up not drafting my outfield sleepers because I fill so many of those spots with studs early on.

This time the pendulum swung a bit too far in the other direction. The back end of my outfield is weak, especially if Morneau is not just bad but hurt again, and I have to press Duda into first-base/corner-infielder duty.

I guess the lesson here is that with other drafters as savvy as the ones in this mock, it’s not so easy to pull solid outfield sleepers/values late in drafts. There were a number of outfield picks between me taking Werth in Round Nine and Duda in Round 20 that made me think, “Maybe I should have taken that guy here instead.” Perhaps the one that made me kick myself most was Paul’s pick of Chris B. Young in Round 12.

Any concluding thoughts?

I think I assembled a team that is unlikely to bottom out. I don’t think there’s as much risk on this team as last season’s performance from some of its members might indicate. If a few things go right, this team could be pretty dangerous. Those are the teams I like to assemble—likely not to bottom out, a contender if more things go right than wrong, and a downright problem if most things go right!

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:35am

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Wednesday, February 29, 2012

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Monday, February 27, 2012

Ryan Braun is back

Chris Perez likely to miss start of season

Raul Ibanez to round out Yankees' DH platoon

Manny Ramirez, A's agree to minor-league deal

Other odds and ends from around MLB

Friday, February 24, 2012

Thursday, February 23, 2012

Wednesday, February 22, 2012

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Monday, February 20, 2012

A’s swoop in to sign Yoenis Cespedes to four-year deal

Pirates-Yankees trade is finally completed as A.J. Burnett goes to Pittsburgh

Jon Garland agrees to minor-league contract with Indians

Friday, February 17, 2012

Thursday, February 16, 2012

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Tuesday, February 14, 2012

Monday, February 13, 2012

ERA problems

WHIP problems

Golden dollar?

Orioles trade Jeremy Guthrie to Rockies for Jason Hammel and Matt Lindstrom

Rangers sign Conor Jackson to minor league deal

Russell Branyan receives spring training invitation from Yankees

Friday, February 10, 2012

Thursday, February 09, 2012

My findings and observations...

Wednesday, February 08, 2012

Start your own league

Join an existing league

Joining third-party for-stakes leagues

Tuesday, February 07, 2012

Lessons from the turn

Monday, February 06, 2012

Edwin Jackson signs with Nationals

Indians add Casey Kotchman, Russ Canzler at first base

Odds and ends from around the majors

Friday, February 03, 2012

Thursday, February 02, 2012

Infatuated

Ambivalent

Disgusted

What did I learn?

Wednesday, February 01, 2012

You waited a long time to grab a pitcher

That’s fine, but stop pretending you also don’t have Matt Capps on your team

You have a lot of players who need to rebound from last season

I can buy that argument for most of your picks, but Justin Morneau?

What about the two-ace catcher move; did you plan that?

So, how do you think it did work out?

Any concluding thoughts?