THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 4:14am

Tout Mixed 2012: Team Singman

First off, I just want to say "Hi" to all the readers. I know I've been quiet this offseason but I'm hoping this article will get me jump started again on a regular writing schedule. This past weekend I traveled into the City for my first year in the Tout Wars League. For those unfamiliar, Tout Wars and LABR are considered the two premier expert leagues in the country.

I'm not one to overstate the importance and level of competition of such leagues, though they are as competitive as any high-money league you'll come across. As a first year player, I was placed into the 15-team mixed league (participants generally "graduate" into the AL or NL-only leagues as spots open up). The format for the draft is a live auction, which put me at a bit of a disadvantage since I've never drafted in this manner before. The amount of info you are required to keep track of during a live auction is much greater compared to online, or even a live snake draft, so keeping up without letting it distract me and affect my bids was a new challenge.

Madison Bumgarner. (Icon/SMI)

This is not all an excuse for drafting a poor team. Overall I feel my team is not the best nor the worst, somewhere in the middle. Here is a link to a spreadsheet with all the teams and below is my team with the price I paid for each player.

+-----+------------------+-------+
| POS | PLAYER           | PRICE |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| C   | J Saltalamacchia | $ 7   |
| C   | Nick Hundley     | $ 3   |
| 1B  | Ryan Howard      | $ 7   |
| 2B  | Jason Kipnis     | $ 7   |
| 3B  | Brett Lawrie     | $28   |
| SS  | Starlin Castro   | $25   |
| CI  | Jhonny Peralta   | $ 8   |
| MI  | Mike Aviles      | $ 2   |
| OF  | Curtis Grandy    | $33   |
| OF  | Nick Swisher     | $11   |
| OF  | Lucas Duda       | $ 7   |
| OF  | Ben Revere       | $ 4   |
| OF  | Carlos Quentin   | $ 1   |
| UT  | Mike Moustakas   | $10   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| P   | Cole Hamels      | $20   |
| P   | M Bumgarner      | $17   |
| P   | Brandon Beachy   | $13   |
| P   | Chris Sale       | $ 7   |
| P   | Lance Lynn       | $ 1   |
| P   | J.J. Putz        | $13   |
| P   | Carlos Marmol    | $10   |
| P   | Frank Francisco  | $ 6   |
| P   | Brett Myers      | $ 5   |
+-----+------------------+-------+
| BN  | Eric Thames      | RSV-1 |
| BN  | Andrew Cashner   | RSV-2 |
| BN  | Cliff Pennington | RSV-3 |
| BN  | John Jay         | RSV-4 |
+-----+------------------+-------+

Overall I stayed away from the big name hitters but came away with Curtis Granderson, Brett Lawrie, and Starlin Castro as my middle-lineup guys. Not a great core but with the extra cash I was able to get my targets later in the draft, like Lucas Duda and Jason Kipnis.

To compensate, I got two top pitchers: Cole Hamels and a very reasonably priced Madison Bumgarner for $17, probably my best purchase. Brandon Beachy and Chris Sale round out my rotation as two high-strikeout guys who solidify my staff as one of the best. I didn't spend for a top-tier closer but did come away with four so I should be competitive in saves.

Paying $7 for Salty was merely a function of me having extra cash at the end of the draft and not enough talent to spend it on. Ditto for the $10 Moustakas bid as well. Despite these overpays I still finished the draft with $16 left over, so clearly I did not spend as much as I could have earlier in the draft. With optimized budgeting my team could clearly have been better, but I still feel I managed to assemble a competitive roster.

What are your thoughts on my team? If you can, try to look at the other teams so you can a sense of how it compares.

Posted by Paul Singman at 1:43am

Thursday, March 29, 2012

Hacking is a great fantasy skill

In real baseball, hacking is a bad skill to have. Hackers are generally worse baseball players (save for the lucky few, like Josh Hamilton) who carry low on-base percentages and diminished offensive value.

But fantasy baseball is called "fantasy" for a reason. We don’t care about real-life production. Sure, it's nice to say that your team is full of .400 OBP guys, but Daric Barton’s .393 OBP in 2010 was worthless to virtually all of you—even if you were in an OBP league.

This time of year, especially, its important to keep this in mind. Every spring, it seems like there are a dozen or so players who are set for a "big year" because they've revamped their plate approach and are now more disciplined hitters. While this will make them better real-life players, it isn't guaranteed to make them better fantasy players.

In fact, improved plate discipline can actually hurt your player’s value—significantly. I repeat: in fantasy, patience is NOT a virtue.

Take talented hacker Josh Hamilton for example.

Going in the third to fourth round in mixed leagues, Hamilton never gets enough credit for how much he hacks—and how much it helps his counting stats, batting average, and your team.

A prolific free-swinger, in 2011, he had the fourth highest swing percentage (57.1 percent), 11th highest O-Swing percentage (41.0 percent), and the highest Z-Swing percentage in the league (81.7 percent).

Regressing Hamilton's plate discipline characteristics and batted ball profile, the outfielder carried an expected line of .288/.357/.526 with 28 home runs over 650 plate appearances in 2011.

While conventional wisdom states that he would be more valuable if he could tone down that approach and get more selective, the opposite is true. If Hamilton were to instead adopt merely league average discipline at the plate (30.6 O-Swing percentage and 65.0 Z-Swing percentage), he would carry an expected .269/.376/.508 line with just 24.5 home runs. That's a drop of 3.5 home runs and almost 20 points in batting average.

Sure, his OBP improves and his walk rate goes up by almost five percent (7.0 percent to 11.8 percent), but that doesn’t matter in fantasy. Though he will earn a few extra runs from the OBP, that will be completely washed out—and then some—with the drop in home runs and batting average… and RBI as well.

Plugging the two Josh Hamiltons into the cleanup slot in Texas’ 2011 lineup, we regress the following overall lines:

Hacking Josh Hamilton: 98.5 R, 28.0 HR, 106.5 RBI, 9.5 SB, .2877 AVG
Disciplined Josh Hamilton: 101.5R, 24.5 HR, 93.7 RBI, 9.5 SB, .2694 AVG

Valuewise, these are two vastly different players. Hamilton the Hacker grades out at 4.77 points above average (12-team leagues) at FantasyPlayerRater.com, while Hamilton the Patient is worth 2.90 points. Both players are excellent, but that two-point difference is about the same as moving from Justin Upton (5.23 points as per Rotochamp projections) to Hunter Pence (3.35 points as per Rotochamp).

So, to all fantasy players, I say this:

LET ‘EM HACK!

Robinson Cano, Adrian Gonzalez, CarGo, Eric Hosmer, Ichiro, Mark Trumbo, Brandon Phillips, and anyone else with those care-free, free-swinging ways...

LET THEM HACK!

Final Note:

Before I ignite the fury of commenters everywhere, I would like to lay down one caveat: yes, it is a reasonable assumption that improved pitch selectivity will lead to a more efficient player—i.e. higher BABIP and higher HR/FB, which will even out the fewer balls in play.

However, for Hamilton to reach 28 home runs with his new approach, he would have to raise his HR/FB ratio from 16.4 percent to 19.3 percent—a huge gain. To get the batting average back, he would have to gain 40 points on his BABIP. Those are colossal improvements. And that doesn’t take into account that he may merely lose out on power or BABIP because he’s moving away from his natural tendencies and becoming a less aggressive hitter.

So, if your favorite manager starts talking about improve plate discipline leading to a breakout season for one of your players, think again—and get ready to use it against your competition.

Posted by Mike Silver at 6:44am

To diversify my portfolio, or not?

Diversifying your portfolio is one of the most basic tricks of the trade in the stock market. If you don’t bank too much on a single company’s success, but rather create a portfolio of varied, cross-industry stocks, the old adage says that you’ll succeed. In it’s most basic and unscientific form, is the same strategy worthwhile?

Pictured below are some pretty pie graphs of my draft breakdown thus far in 2012. I’ve drafted in five out of the seven leagues I’m participating in this year, and found myself building a core, generally, around a whole slew of different guys each time.

Is that a keen strategy—using my end game, and even centerpiece picks, on a variety of guys, assuring—in theory—the chances for success? Or, like in Vegas when you’re feeling good about a certain game or a certain line, should I have “whacked” a certain player, gone all-in, and drafted him in every single league (say, an Alejandro de Aza, Cory Luebke, or Carlos Gonzalez, all of whom I own in three out of five leagues so far)?

I own 16 percent of my hitters in more than one league, and 23 percent of my pitchers twice or more, for reference. But it all comes down to personal preference. Feeling a big year coming from Carlos Gonzalez like I do? Not so risk-averse? Bid him up in every league and put all your money where your mouth is.

My personal bend is to diversify my assets and simply look for the best deals where available. This draft season, I’ve found my strategy pretty straightforward and repetitive: draft a couple of studs, spend a good deal on pitching, but generally hold my money until the mid-range players come around and buy whomever I choose. Jordan Zimmermann and Cory Luebke, to a certain extent, fit that mold; I’m not targeting them, but they’re falling to me. I’m paying less for their value than what I should, and that, in it’s simplest form, is how to win any given league.

A couple of reminders when chasing a player you love:

What’s the difference?

I’ve seen, by nature of participating in a good number of drafts over the past few weeks, a bunch of guys bid past the projected value of a player on a site like Yahoo, only to be pushed one number further and drop out. Sometimes—and this is what doesn’t work for me—the chat box will read, from the recently outbid, “I was willing to go (insert arbitrary number here) but wasn’t willing to go (insert arbitrary number plus another bid, usually $2) on him.” Err… If you’re willing to spend $27 on Clayton Kershaw, for example, but aren’t willing to spend $29 on him, you’re letting self-doubt rule the day. I’d put the likelihood that Kershaw’s actual value lies in the $27-$29 range at “very low.” What one is really thinking when they self-confirm their dropping out of the bidding is, I’d think, “Crap, maybe I oughtta spend my money elsewhere! Or let this guy or gal with a fat stack left burn some of their cash so I can have the most money left!” Don’t self-doubt, and don’t back down at such levels. Target your guys and go get ‘em.

Don’t price enforce

By all means, if you’ve pinpointed a couple of guys that you feel you absolutely need to build around, don’t play the role of the price enforcer. By pushing the price up on guys you have no intention of buying, you’re playing into a risky strategy that may not pan out (i.e. when you get stuck with Chris Carpenter for three bucks trying to push his price up to pre-draft value of, say, seven dollars).

That said, deplete the market and pounce

Especially if you play in a keeper league, it would certainly be a deft move to take into account position scarcity and current rosters and, depending on the situation, try to fill others’ gaps. Say, for instance, I play in a 10 team NL-only league, and there are seven or so catchers kept. I figure I need Brian McCann or things might get ugly, but there are, plausibly, the two other teams without a catcher competing for McCann’s services to fill their void. I spot Buster Posey, who I’m low on this year, still hanging on my draft board, and throw him out there very well knowing I’ll eliminate one of my competitors for McCann: I sit back, relax, and enjoy the show. Now, of course, such a situation is unlikely (catcher is pretty weak this year, let me tell you), but the idea rings true at any point in the draft and in many analogous situation. Take money out of the total pot without price enforcing.

So, you feeling lucky on Carlos Gonzalez this year? Play your cards right, put a chip in each of the pots, and hold your breath.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:03am

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

LIMA rises: elite non-closing relievers

It is a foregone conclusion at this point in spring training, with regular season games gearing up this week, but I had an epiphany this offseason in preparing for my fantasy auctions. And that epiphany is this: Now, more than ever, the LIMA (Low Investment Mound Aces) strategy, explained below, is the most viable option to winning your fantasy league. With robust pitching aplenty in the return of the era of the pitcher, why invest in elite arms?

Now let's get one thing straight: Leagues are not won at the auction/draft table. They can be lost there (coming back from a poor draft can be a devastatingly difficult uphill battle), but one cannot sit idly by after the league drafts and hope to go for gold. The waiver wire is a key component to a successful fantasy season, both in acquiring players for your team and preventing other teams from acquiring players that help theirs. My motto is that drafting is only 60 percent of the battle. The other 40 percent is a diligent and careful use of the waiver wire (in addition to trading).

That said, drafting is undeniably important. In the context of auctions, you are given a limited budget—usually $260—to acquire a 28-man roster out of 336 players out of the given baseball universe, give or take a few spots based on your league's size and roster requirements. Economizing is key, as is game theory. You need to maximize your resources by guessing not only what a player's expected relative value will be, but how other participants in your league are going to value said player.

If you have to pay $50 to acquire $38 of production, is that the wisest use of your limited budget (even assuming the value of concentrated production in a single roster spot)? Likewise, if the next highest valuator in the league values that $38 of production at $30, then do you really need to bid $38 to acquire him? This game of bid chicken, price enforcing and value-seeking is fun, complex, and nerve-wracking at times. Guessing all of these moving parts is no easy task, and a high-priced mistake can be devastating. Likewise, leaving $25 at the table could have meant the difference between having Matt Kemp instead or Drew Stubbs, or upgrading multiple positions.

Given all these complexities, limitations, and dangers of mistakes on spending, why spend money when you do not have to? Enter the LIMA strategy.

While most fantasy drafters tend to split their auction budget somewhere between 60/40 and 70/30 on hitting and pitching, the LIMA method splits the "excess" budget something like 85/15, or, in its most extreme form, 100/0.

Excess budget is defined by the amount of money you can spend on a player in excess of $1 per position, the minimum required to be kept unspent until all slots are filled. So in a league with $260 auction budgets and 28 players to be drafted per roster, the excess budget is $232.

The theory behind LIMA is that a good-enough-to-compete pitching staff can be cobbled together through playing match-ups, streaming and economizing late-round sleeper picks. LIMA revolves around the notion that pitching is so deep and volatile that it is a better use of resources to invest in elite hitting. LIMA requires a lot more micromanagement of your team, knowledge of up-and-coming pitchers, activity on the waiver wire, and the use of a value-seeking lens that ignores brand name and bankable production in favor of those "unsexy options" that no one else likes. (An example: drafting a pitcher like Edinson Volquez this year with the intent of streaming him at home.) LIMA is almost an extreme version of playing stars and scrubs, with almost all of your stars being hitters and almost all of your scrubs being pitchers.

The version of LIMA I usually play is to draft one ace and two to three cheap closers and surround them with $1 pitchers that I draft late. Last year, those $1 pitchers included Brandon Beachy, Michael Pineda, Javier Vazquez and Brandon McCarthy. In 2010, they included Colby Lewis, Phil Hughes and Kris Medlen (pre-injury). This year, with the exception of Yu Darvish and Anibal Sanchez in a couple of leagues, I almost exclusively drafted $1 pitchers.

Noting that the LIMA strategy has been around a long time—popularized and given its name by, Ron Shandler—why is this strategy more viable now than ever before? And why do I feel so comfortable drafting $1 pitchers across the board when I have never done anything so extreme before? The answer lies in recent trends in pitching.

It is no secret that over the past few years, the pitching standard has evolved towards a lower mean. Look at the 10-year trend in ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, walks, swings-and-misses (SwStr%) and first pitch strikes (F-Strike%):

Year	ERA	WHIP	K%	BB%	SwStr%	F-Strike%
2002	4.28	1.367	16.8%	8.7%	9.8%	58.3%
2003	4.40	1.383	16.4%	8.5%	9.5%	58.6%
2004	4.46	1.400	16.9%	8.6%	9.0%	58.4%
2005	4.29	1.369	16.4%	8.2%	8.7%	59.1%
2006	4.53	1.408	16.8%	8.4%	8.5%	58.8%
2007	4.47	1.406	17.1%	8.5%	8.6%	58.7%
2008	4.32	1.391	17.5%	8.7%	8.6%	58.6%
2009	4.32	1.390	18.0%	8.9%	8.6%	58.2%
2010	4.08	1.347	18.5%	8.5%	8.5%	58.8%
2011	3.94	1.316	18.6%	8.1%	8.5%	59.4%

A few things worth noting: While the league average ERA and WHIP have hardly been steady over the past 10 years, there is a clear difference between the pitching results from 2010 and 2011 compared to 2002-2009. From 2002 to 2009, the league ERA fluctuated from a low of 4.28 to a high of 4.53. That's a maximum variation of a quarter of a run per nine innings. Noting that, it is pretty huge that the league average ERA from 2009 to 2010 varied by 0.24 runs per nine innings. That's an ERA difference of 0.20 from the previous low mark in the 10-year sample, which came all the way back in 2002 (oddly, the season that Barry Bonds was walked to death). That's a huge outlier right there, and it was thought of as just that by many people heading into 2011.

But then 2011 happened, and the league average ERA dropped to 3.94. That's almost as big of a drop between 2010 and 2011 as the drop between 2010 and 2002 (again, the prior low league average ERA in the 10-year sample). The 2011 league average ERA of 3.94 is just over a third of a run per nine innings, or approximately a run per game, lower than the 2002-2009 league low. That's a pretty substantial 8 percent change in runs allowed against the lowest league average ERA between 2002 and 2008. The 3.94 major league average ERA is a 10-plus percent—almost half a run—difference from the 2002-2008 major league average ERA. That is pretty substantial.

A similar trend is observable in league average pitcher WHIPs, though to a much lesser degree. What is the cause of this? The answer is pretty murky, as detailed below

Second, walk rates have been more or less stable over this time. They have varied by no more than five percent in any year-to-year change, and the changes have moved in both directions an equal number of times in this set. You'll notice also a similar stability in first pitch strike rates, with only one season (2005) having a change in rate greater than one percent (and in that year, it was 1.2 percent). This is unsurprising given my rudimentary findings a few years ago that first pitch strike rates are highly relevant to a pitcher's overall walk rate.

Third, strikeout rates overall seem to be on the rise, despite a decline in swinging strike rates and the decline of big-strikeout, big home run hitters that defined the 1990s and early 2000s. Given the relationship between swinging strike percentage and strikeout percentage, this seems a bit odd. But this trend is not new. It is part of a larger overall trend that has been going on in baseball for more than 50 years, as eloquently detailed by Christina Kahrl at Baseball Prospectus in an excerpt from the upcoming book Extra Innings" (a sequel to the must-read Baseball Between the Numbers).

Kahrl points to the rise of micromanaging relief pitcher usage (bullpen assembly and management) against the decline of the "nine-inning starter" as one probable cause for this spike. Fresh arms that haven't been out there earlier in the game are harder to guess.

Steve Treder, in the 2011 Hardball Times Annual, had this to add about strikeout trends, as relayed to me in a recent email:

In July of this year, on his website The Diamond Appraised, the iconic sabermetrician Craig Wright published an excellent article titled “What is Behind the Offensive Decline?” Wright methodically considers various factors potentially causing scoring rates to decline over the past several years, including the crackdown on steroids. His take is that PED testing is at most a minor explanation, for two good reasons:

[First, a]s best we can tell, pitchers have made at least as much use of steroids and other PEDS as hitters. Thus to the extent that drug testing has removed “enhanced” performance from the game, there’s no reason to assume that the removal would necessarily result in a net reduction in scoring.

[Second, t]he serious, penalty-laden drug testing regime was introduced in 2004—a season in which scoring increased. Then following a decline in 2005, scoring climbed to even higher levels in 2006. There is no basis for concluding that the imposition of PED-testing would somehow result in a time-released inhibition of offense, and definitely not one still slowly unfolding seven years down the road.

Wright assesses other issues as well: improved fielding, a less lively ball, and a wider strike zone. In each case, he dispassionately weighs the available evidence and dismisses them as meaningful factors.

His conclusion is that the gradual decline in offense can be traced to two interrelated causes: a general improvement in the tactical approach of pitchers attacking the strike zone, and a lack of a corresponding general adjustment by hitters. Here’s the money quote:

'Let me just talk about the most common count, the one in every plate appearance, the 0-0 count, the first pitch. In the 20 years of data I have on this, there has been a fairly steady trend of the average batter taking more first pitches. The pitchers have wised up to this and starting around 2002 they began throwing more first-pitch strikes. That adjustment by the pitchers hasn’t changed the mentality of the average hitter. In fact, the general response of batters has been to take even more of the first pitches. They have set a new record in that category—in that 20-year database—each of the last four years. And again, that is with the pitchers throwing even more first-pitch strikes than they did back in the 1991-2001 period.

'For the first time in the 20-year history of the database, batters in 2010 are taking more than half of the first-pitch strikes thrown to them (.517). Twenty years ago it was .453. In a sample that covers the full variety of all hitters, a shift of 14.1% is a remarkable change.

'That means there are more plate appearances going to an 0-1 count without a fight. As many of you know, an 0-1 count radically affects the ultimate effectiveness of a plate appearance. In 2009, the final result of plate appearances after reaching an 0-1 count was an OPS of .629 as compared to .860 in the other plate appearances. It is not hard to overdo the wisdom of taking a tough first-pitch strike, and the general trend for batters may have crossed that line.'

I find this to be a penetrating insight on Wright’s part. The never-ending battle between pitcher and hitter always revolves around each probing to see what the other is willing to give, and taking advantage accordingly. Wright’s thesis is that through the 1990s batters were steadily gaining the edge by exploiting pitchers’ cautiousness, but since the early 2000s pitchers have been effectively turning the tables on hitters in the same manner. He makes quite a compelling argument.

That said, I remain a bit skeptical that the picture is as simple as Wright paints it. I tend to believe that trends so deep that they’re visible league-wide over a period of several years likely reflect changing underlying conditions beyond just the marketplace of competing tactical pitcher-batter approaches: in this case, given that first-pitch called strikes are the centerpiece of Wright’s profound observation, I’m not nearly as willing as he is to remove the umpires from the equation. My guess is that the tactical trends that Wright has identified are being enhanced by a cultural shift in umpiring, with the men in blue increasingly inclined to give the pitcher the benefit of the doubt on a borderline first-pitch take (and likely on other takes as well).

There is no shortage of recent literature on the recent trends in pitching, and the specific causes are still up for debate. Regardless of exactly why pitchers are showing better results, the fact is that they are, and some research shows that this trend might be more sustainable than one would have thought at the end of the 2010 season.

Let me point out some additional key observations. First, the difference between the top starters and the average major league starter has not changed by too much over the past five years. Below is a chart that compares the difference between the ERA, WHIP, strikeout rate and walk rate of the cumulative top 10 qualified starting pitchers by ERA against the major league average:

Year	dERA	dWHIP	dK%	dBB%
2007	1.43	0.22	-3.0%	1.7%
2008	1.50	0.23	-4.9%	1.6%
2009	1.73	0.35	-4.6%	1.9%
2010	1.49	0.19	-2.4%	1.2%
2011	1.35	0.27	-4.4%	2.1%

You'll notice that not too much looks out of place comparing 2010 and 2011 to 2007-2009. Likewise, the variation between qualified starting pitcher ERA and WHIP, a measure of "clustering," do not seem to indicate any substantial trend over time either:

Year	vERA	vWHIP
2007	0.55	0.02
2008	0.66	0.02
2009	0.50	0.02
2019	0.58	0.02
2011	0.54	0.02

Getting the top guys is still much better for your team than grabbing the league average pitcher, assuming you can successfully identify them (there is a lot of turnover).

So why LIMA? Does ignoring pitching really make more sense when the differentials between the top and middle are not overly substantial at best?

The answer, looping back to Kahrl's Baseball Prospectus article, lies in the increased availability of elite non-closing relievers. Check out the stats of qualified relievers over the past decade:

Year	ERA	WHIP	K%
2002	3.47	1.288	19.5%
2003	3.70	1.307	19.2%
2004	3.68	1.318	19.4%
2005	3.51	1.279	19.1%
2006	3.71	1.314	19.7%
2007	3.66	1.297	20.1%
2008	3.62	1.316	20.3%
2009	3.49	1.295	20.9%
2010	3.43	1.262	21.5%
2011	3.13	1.223	22.0%

For whatever reason—better micromanagement and usage of bullpens, better evaluation in bullpen composition, or something else—it seems that over the past few years, relievers as a whole are putting up more elite numbers. I have written about the value of drafting elite, non-closing relievers on many occasions.

Saves are only one statistic. There are plenty of players like Jonny Venters, Tyler Clippard, David Robertson, Addison Reed, Mike Adams and Kenley Jansen out there who have the potential to be worth double-digit dollar values by the end of the season despite a lack of saves. The additional upshot of some of these guys, like Sergio Romo and Sean Marshall (before Ryan Madson's injury) is that they are often "next in line" for saves. Some can even net you five to 10 wins to boot.

As more and more of these guys are available, or as more of these elite non-closer relievers are more often and better used, they become more and more useful for fantasy teams. No one really drafts these guys, and fewer people pick up emerging elite non-closing relievers in the middle of the season. You'll of course have to watch the leverage usage statistics (if your elite non-closing reliever is coming in only to face guys like Adrian Gonzalez, you might want to opt for someone else), but why not invest a dollar or two into a couple of players who can arguably turn Bud Norris into Tim Lincecum.

It might burn an extra roster space, but with innings caps and only so many hitters you can start in one day, maximization can take on many forms. They include playing the LIMA method by drafting elite non-closing relievers to boot. I call this method of maximization LIMAPER (LIMA Plus Elite Non-closing Relievers).

Winning in fantasy baseball is about adjusting, and it is essential to adjust to this trend to win in more competitive leagues. Every advantage counts. Fantasy baseball is about finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them. The biggest names in elite non-closing relievers—Jonny Venters (60 percent Yahoo ownership rate), Kenley Jansen (74 percent), Tyler Clippard (44 percent) and Aroldis Chapman (45 percent)—are are pretty heavily owned, but outside the name brands, and the farther the player is from vulturing saves, the lower the ownership rates.

Notice the drop in ownership rates to even Mike Adams (31 percent), David Robertson (32 percent), Sergio Romo (33 percent), Fernando Salas (33 percent), and Vinnie Pestano (26 percent), and then compare them to Koji Uehara (8 percent), Eric O'Flaherty (13 percent), Joaquin Benoit (13 percent) and Kris Medlen (1 percent, and he might even take the fifth starter role for April in Tim Hudson's absence).

Take Oliver's projections and THT Forecast's customizable auction price guide set for a deep, 12-team league with nine pitching spots. Assume a $260 budget heavily skewed 70/30 in favor of hitting. Guys like Adams, Benoit, Uehara, Romo and Joel Peralta are pegged to be worth $6-8, while Craig Kimbrell, arguably the most valuable closer in baseball for 2012, is worth only about $12. That's more than double what Oliver thinks you can expect out of Johan Santana, but he's owned in over three-quarters of leagues.

Elite non-closing relievers are a market inefficiency. How much is one of these guys going to cost you? A buck? Two bucks? Maybe three to five dollars if you get a top name early on? Plenty will be available on the waiver wire. Some, like Luke Gregerson, Rafael Soriano and Hong-Chih Kuo last year, will surely bust. But you can drop them without much worry. They did not cost you much of your budget—maybe 1 percent of it. And there will be plenty of guys like Takashi Saito and Kerry Wood to replace them with even in league-only formats.

Let's come full circle and note a few things:

Hitting is about concentrating production. You can play the match-ups and try to Frankenstein your way to success, but the best strategy is to install the best players possible at each hitting position. It is harder to "stream" hitters day-to-day than it is pitchers. By using the LIMAPEN strategy, you are freeing a greater amount of your resources to confidently invest in positional upgrades. It could mean the difference between making a few Mark Reynoldses into Pablo Sandovals, or upgrading Asdrubal Cabreras into Hanley Ramirez. It's harder to play the matchups to replicate Ramirez at shortstop than it is to combine breakout potential players like Juan Nicasio, Mike Minor, Brian Matusz, Jeff Samardzija, Luke Hocheaver or flawed/risky pitchers on the cheap like Brandon Morrow, Bud Norris, Carlos Zambrano with elite non-closing relievers like Robertson, Adams, and Benoit to replicate the production of Daniel Hudson, James Shields or C.J. Wilson types.

It cannot be any riskier than drafting Adam Wainwright or Josh Johnson at plus-market rates. You might have more wins risk, but there's plenty of Alfredo Aceveses in the season. Further considering the lower bust/flop rates of hitters compared to pitchers, it makes more sense to invest in the former over the latter. And the LIMAPER strategy enables you to do that with less worry. Combine that with the "do not pay for saves" strategy* and you have a lot of extra money to spend maximizing lesser risks.

*I do advocate paying something for saves, just not too much, because you by and large cannot punt any category in a non-H2H format and reasonably expect to end up on top. I suppose you could even "overpay" for saves from guys like Craig Kimbrell, who will bolster your bottom pitching line in addition to netting you saves, if you want to play it safest. I covered this issue, very crudely, in one of my very first fantasy articles.

Now if only I had written this article a month ago... at least you still have plenty of time to scour the waiver wire!

Check out part two of this article for the quantification of this argument.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 4:52am

LIMA rises: quantification

Following up upon part one of this two-part series, let's look at the potential effect of elite non-closing relievers.

First, let's assume the standard 1,400 innings pitched cap that is the Yahoo default. Second, let's assume you draft the league average pitching staff, plus three elite non-closing relievers from last year who currently have ownership rates under 15 percent this season. For the sake of example, let's use Eric O'Flaherty (13 percent Yahoo ownership), Joaquin Benoit (13 percent), and Koji Uehara (8 percent), who combined for 199.2 innings last season. That leaves us with 1,200.1 innings of "league average" production.

So first, let's recap the league average pitcher production from 2012.

Year	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9
2011	3.94	1.316	7.13	3.11

These data include reliever numbers, but also include the bad starting real-life pitchers who no way in heck would ever end up on anybody's roster, so let's assume those two factors cancel each other out. Applied to our 1,200.1 inning sample, we get the following aggregate numbers:

	Earned runs	Base runners	Strikeouts
1200.1 IP Totals	525.5	1579.7	950.9

Next, let's aggregate our elite non-closer numbers.

Player	IP	ER	K	H+BB
Eric O'Flaherty	73.2	8	67	80
Koji Uehara	65.0	17	85	47
Joaquin Benoit	61.0	20	63	64
TOTAL	199.2	45	215	191

Put it all together, and here is the potential effect on the "league average" line:

	ERA	WHIP	K/9
League Average	3.94	1.316	7.13
Elite Non-Closing	2.03	0.957	1.08
Combined Line	3.67	1.265	7.50
Change	-0.27	-0.051	0.37
Percentage	-6.9%	-3.9%	+5.1%

At this point, it is essential to address a couple of points. First, I am not advocating that these specific relievers are going to be this good again this year. Certainly O'Flaherty will not post an ERA under 1.00, and it's unlikely that you can absolutely identify three players who will cumulatively put up an ERA of 2.03. Second, the "overall impact" does not seem extreme enough to win. Taking note of Tim Dierkes' series on what it takes to win, you would still fall short of where you'd ideally like to be.

So what does this mean?

First and foremost, you are likely not going to draft a team with a league average ERA or an ERA just under 4.00. Between intelligently playing the match-ups, finding sleepers off the waiver wire, and good team management, you are likely to produce much better numbers from the smaller pool of fantasy relevant starters plus your closers. The better than league average that you can make your pitching staff, the closer these elite non-closing relievers will bring you to the top of the pitching categories.

Keep in mind as well that you do not have to win every fantasy category to place if you can offset losses in one category by placing higher in other categories. Dierkes' estimations are based on what he thinks will net you a top four or five placing in every Roto category. Every point you shore up on the hitting side, however, is a point you can slice from the pitching side.

Finally, while you might not be able to target a group of pitchers able to put up a 2.00 ERA, you should be able to find a handful of relievers with sub-2.80 ERA. Their impact on your bottom line will be lesser, but again, if you draft/stream smartly, then all you need is these guys to shore you up and "upgrade" your staff versus form the basis of the staff.

Noting this, look at the total impact that three elite relievers from last year could have had on your team—noting that the highest current ownership rate of any of them is 13 percent. You could lower your ERA by a quarter of a run, and bolster your WHIP by a very substantial .05 points. That's your best case scenario when you trade for both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee midseason to fix a middling staff. Sure, these three pitchers combined for only eight wins, but there are always plenty of relievers like Tyler Clippard in 2010 and Alfredo Aceves in 2011 who are in "vulture" middle relief roles (look for relievers with high leverage and/or "lock down the rest of the sixth or seventh inning" usage). They tend up put up equally useful numbers plus wins.

New elite non-closing relievers come out of the woodwork every year, and they go chronically unowned. It's hard to predict just how good a reliever will be, and given their smaller sample of innings, they can be even more volatile than starters. However, some relievers (like Mike Adams) have a certain level of projectability that clearly outweighs their cost.

Given this potential impact on your bottom line, why not risk the $2 flier on such relievers in the draft? Especially if you use the waiver wire to rotate match-up-friendly pitchers, you should have plenty of roster space for the elite non-closing relievers. Even if you do not stream starters, the transferred budget from pitching to shoring up your hitting positions under LIMA means there is a lesser need to keep a deeper bench of hitters to micromanage your offense.

So who are some $1 pitchers you can pair with your elite non-closing relievers to produce a competitive pitching staff? Here are some of the $1 pitchers I have gotten with regularity this offseason, including in my experts leagues:

Jake Peavy
Kris Medlen
Juan Nicasio/Mike Minor (their price/hype has grown throughout spring training, and I doubt they would go for $1 if you drafted today)
Luke Hochevar
Jeff Samardzija
Jhoulys Chacin
Tommy Milone
Brian Matusz
Phil Hughes
Gavin Floyd/John Danks
Ryan Dempster
Justin Masterson
Tim Hudson
Danny Duffy
Vance Worley
Erik Bedard/Francisco Liriano (I got them early in spring training; I doubt they would go for $1 if you drafted today)

In a game where every advantage counts, elite non-closing relievers are a potential difference maker. If they bust, they cost you almost nothing, and can be safely dropped and readily replaced. Pitching volatility is a worry, but relievers as a whole tend to product better numbers than starting pitchers, so the risk seems no worse than taking a flier on pitcher matchup.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 2:16am

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Trader’s corner: week zero

Welcome to Trader's Corner, your one-stop shop for bargains and busts. I've partnered with our good friend Oliver to look at the recent performances of a few players and why they could present a major profit opportunity for you. This won't just be your typical buy high/sell low column, though. As much opportunity as those situations may present, we'll also try to identify the hot streaks that figure to last and the cold spells that could spell doom.

Every two weeks, I'll look at a pair of players in each of four categories: Buy High, Buy Low, Sell High, and Sell Low. The first player will be my own selection and the the second based strictly on the Oliver projections.

Trader's Corner is geared toward those owners who have already constructed their teams and are trying to find ways of improving their rosters. But fret not, tardy drafters; you too may find some pearls for your upcoming draft or auction.

I'll keep a tally of all my recommendations, the date I made them, and the players' performances from that point forward. From time to time, I'll share the results in an attempt to evaluate how I'm faring and if there are trends to be found.

Each entry will include the player's Rest of Season Oliver projection in the standard rotisserie categories (in the format AVG-R-RBI-HR-SB for hitters and W/SV-ERA-WHIP-K for pitchers). Also provided will be the accompanying projected dollar values according to THT Forecasts' Custom Price Guide for both the standard Yahoo! and ESPN formats.

Dollar values are based on a $260 draft budget with $2 allocated to each bench spot and a 70/30 hitter/pitcher split.

For the first few weeks of the year I'll also include Average Auction Cost (AAC) figures for both ESPN and Yahoo, since they provide a reference for each player's market price heading into the season.

Buy High

Buying high is one of the most difficult and frequently overlooked strategies at a fantasy manager's disposal. We all love to discuss player trends that look promising in the offseason, but somehow, once the season begins, every sample size becomes too small and every unexpected performance a matter of mere luck. The consensus bias shifts from heavily weighting recent performance and "upside" to nigh unshakable temperance and prudence. For the savvy, risk-seeking owner, this can present a great deal of profit opportunity.

For this edition's Buy High, we'll look at a high priced outfielder who may actually be undervalued and a pitcher I was shocked to find at the top of Oliver's projected rankings.

My pick: Justin Upton
Yahoo! AAC: $38
ESPN AAC: $32
Oliver says: .293-98-97-28-22
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $48
Oliver's ESPN value: $35

It's hard to find profit in the upper ranks, but outside of the top five or six players, Justin Upton may be the most likely to work his way into the conversation for next year's top overall pick. Already established as a five-category performer at the ripe age of 25, he seemingly has everything going for him.

In 2011, Upton set career-best marks in both ISO and strikeout percentage—a common theme you'll find among Buy High hitters. There's room for improvement in his stolen base success rate, but he actually was actually worse in 2010 than 2011 and there's no indication he'll be getting the red light any time soon. He also has a cushy lineup spot, a solid supporting cast, and while Chase Field is a great ballpark for hitters (1.146 home run park factor in 2011 according to ESPN), in Upton's case it may not even matter.

If you were to speculate, who would you think, on average, hit the longest home runs last year? The most common guess I've come across is Giancarlo Stanton, but according to ESPN Hit Tracker, it's wrong (he was second). The correct answer is Justin Upton. His 31 home runs averaged a whopping 423.65 feet in 2011. His average home run was over 423 feet. Let that sink in.

Oliver agrees that Upton may, in fact, be undervalued this year. This is particularly true in the Yahoo! standard format, where Oliver sees potential for a $10 profit—a stunning figure for someone who costs so much.

If you feel your outfield could use a major face lift, Justin Upton makes a fine target.

Oliver's Pick: Yu Darvish
Yahoo! AAC: $16
ESPN AAC: $10
Oliver says: 15-2.60-0.98-201
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $40
Oliver's ESPN value: $35

Oliver takes a somewhat unique approach to projecting players with little-to-no major league experience, and has historically been successful at doing so. Still, it's stunning to see Darvish listed as this year's top projected fantasy pitcher.

Oliver thinks that Darvish can make the transition from Nippon Professional Baseball to the harsh environs of the Ballpark at Arlington seamlessly, becoming an instant fantasy ace in the process. This will be an interesting test for how Oliver handles pitchers from the Japanese ranks, but based on these projections and prices, Darvish sure seems worth a gamble.

While I tentatively trust Oliver's bullish attitude towards the Japanese right-hander, its obviously foolish to expect a pitcher with zero major league experience to be the most valuable arm in the game. Specifically, there's one major uncertainty I'm not convinced Oliver is properly accounting for—the difference between the seven-day schedule of Japanese baseball and the five-day schedule of American baseball.

Even if Darvish isn't the best pitcher in the majors for the 2012 season, there's clearly profit opportunity here. If you're more inclined to invest risk than dollars to try to beef up your fantasy pitching staff, there are few better targets than Darvish.

Buy Low

Everyone loves a buy low candidate. The problem is the owner who owns the buy low candidate usually loves him too, so you may not be able to buy as low as you wish you could. Still, it's always helpful to identify guys who could see their performance improve in the not-too-distant future.

Let's take a peek at a pair of outfielders who saw their stock fall considerably over the course of last season, but could very easily bounce back in 2012.

My Pick: Jason Heyward
Yahoo! AAC: $13
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: .270-85-81-22-11
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $19
Oliver's ESPN value: $19

It was merely a year ago that Heyward was the National League's version of Eric Hosmer—a sure-fire stud on the rise who did a little bit of everything. He was a bigger prospect thanMike Stanton or Jesus Montero, and everyone was sure that if anyone could avoid the cliché sophmore slump, it was Heyward.

A year and a bum shoulder later and Heyward is caught in fantasy purgatory—not quite an afterthought but not someone anyone really wants to talk too much about either. So lets talk about him.

Even with the shoulder injury, not a whole lot beneath the surface of Heyward's offensive profile changed. His ISO and home runs per fly ball both dropped, but not substantially. His batting average was a miserable .227, but his BABIP was an equally miserable .260, though much of that can be attributed to his ugly 21.8 percent infield fly ball rate. Still, he did manage to hit 14 homers, steal nine bases, and keep his walk rate north of 10 percent through 456 plate appearances. That's plenty to like from a 22-year-old who was baseball's top overall prospect less than two years ago.

There is obviously plenty of room for growth from Heyward as well, but the one significant wart he had in 2010 did remain in 2011—his unsightly 50 percent groundball rate. Hitting 20 homers would be a feat in itself with a rate like that, but it does suggest that if and when the young slugger starts putting more balls in the air, he could put up some gaudy power totals.

Oliver sees Heyward as roughly a $20 player for 2012. While lingering injury concerns still exist, all signs are go for his health so far this spring. I wholeheartedly endorse targeting him as an outfield asset this season. If he's your third outfielder in a 12-team league, you're well ahead of the game.

Oliver's Pick: Angel Pagan
Yahoo! AAC: $1
ESPN AAC: $3
Oliver says: .278-81-59-9-28
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $10
Oliver's ESPN value: $15

Oliver is pretty confused as to why the fantasy baseball community is sleeping on Pagan, and we should all thank Oliver for pointing him out to us, myself included.

The line Oliver projects for Pagan is in no way outlandish—it's pretty much right smack in between his stellar 2010 and his poor 2011 and probably even rates as slightly conservative on the stolen base front. Pagan should hit leadoff in an improved Giants lineup, which means plate appearances and stolen base opportunities aplenty.

AT&T park isn't an ideal environment for any hitter, but neither was Citi Field—Pagan's former home. Power isn't Pagan's game, but he's already shown that even in a poor hitting environment he can chip in enough four-baggers to keep from sinking your power totals.

The back end of the outfield ranks are not exactly rich with talent this year, and finding a tidy $9-12 profit from a player like Pagan could go a long way toward completing a competitive roster, especially one that needs a touch of speed and a few extra runs.

Sell High

There may be nothing more satisfying in fantasy baseball than selling a player at his peak value, only to watch him crash and burn for another owner while you reap the benefits of said owner's former studs. It happens every year—whether it was Michael Pineda's second half swoon in 2011 or that time that closer saved 20 games in the first half only to blow four in a row and lose his job. You remember that guy, right?

For today's Sell High, we've got a couple of infielders who are looming a bit too large on some owners' fantasy radars.

My Pick: Mark Teixeira
Yahoo! AAC: $29
ESPN AAC: $25
Oliver says: .255-74-88-28-0
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $12
Oliver's ESPN value: $11

Mark Teixeira is someone both Oliver and I feel may hit a sudden and sharp decline, and that it may be soon. The only difference between our opinions is that Oliver doesn't see Teixeira reaching 600 plate appearances, while I do. Otherwise we're right on the same page, and we agree that there's far more risk than reward left in the slugger's bat.

On the surface, Teixiera seems like your typical three-category slugger. He'll hit his share of homers and help himself to plenty of counting numbers batting in the heart of the potent Yankees lineup. Unfortunately, age may be catching up to both Teixeira and his teammates, costing him in both departments.

While some point to Teixiera's low BABIP in 2011 as reason for optimism in 2012, consider the following trends:

Year    BABIP   HR Avg True Dis   HR Avg Spd
2007    .342         415.5          106.9
2008    .316         398.2          104.1
2009    .302         399.3          104.0
2010    .268         393.4          103.5
2011    .239         386.9          102.6

The two right hand columns above represent the "Average True Distance" and "Average Speed off Bat" of Teixeira's home runs for each of the corresponding seasons (data courtesy of ESPN Hit Tracker). Not only has his BABIP declined in four consecutive seasons, but the distance and velocity with which he's been hitting his home runs has declined in an incredibly corollary manner. In 2011, the American League averages for home run distance and speed were 394.7 and 103.4, respectively. For the first time in his career, Teixiera was well worse than the league in both marks.

In fairness, Teixeira's 2007 BABIP was way above his career norm, and the subsequent drop can be written off to regression to a large extent. Still, the same can't be said for the subsequent drops, and it does seem as though he's gone from one of the preeminent sluggers in the game to someone who absolutely requires the short right field porch in Yankee Stadium to keep his power numbers aloft. He's simply not hitting balls with as much authority as he used to, and as such, I would advise caution in regressing his BABIP too far.

Teixeira's fantasy production is now directly tied to his ability to produce the long ball. If his power drops off, the results for your fantasy season could be disastrous. Even if he hits .260 with 30 home runs, you'd be better off with fellow aging slugger Paul Konerko, who is less of a liability in batting average and has shown fewer dents in the armor in recent years.

If he falls off the way Oliver and I are predicting, Teixeira would be one of the largest potential drains on your fantasy wallet this year. Let someone else take that risk—sell high while you can.

Oliver's Pick: Howie Kendrick
Yahoo! AAC: $15
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: .277-62-58-10-10
Oliver's Yahoo! value: N/A
Oliver's ESPN value: $2

While he's a popular sleeper in some quarters, Oliver sees almost no value in Kendrick this year. In fact, in the MI-less Yahoo standard format, Oliver sees Kendrick as worth less than $1, not even bothering to rank him in the price guide.

Why the hatred? Well, for one, Oliver sees Kendrick getting merely 519 plate appearances, putting a serious dent in his fairly balanced skill set. But even if we assume he'll crack 600 plate appearances (something he's done only once in his career, for the record) and add 20 percent across the board to that projection, it takes him only to a line of .277-74-70-12-12. That's still a modest return on a $15 investment.

The problems Oliver sees are two-fold. First, Kendrick's strikeout rate shot up last year. Second, the system doesn't lend much credence to the power gains he made.

I agree that both issues are troubling, though not nearly to the same extent. Despite hitting 18 homers in 2011, Kendrick still pounded the the ball into the ground more than 50 percent of the time. If this didn't come at the cost of all the added whiffs, I might be calling Kendrick a sleeper myself. The problem is all those whiffs will make it much harder for Kendrick to produce the batting average profit some are still hoping for, and the high quantity of ground balls also mean it's unlikely he repeats his home run total from 2011.

The best case scenario for Kendrick would be if he reverted to his old game of avoiding strikeouts while hitting the occasional home run and stealing the occasional base. This could well put him in the $10-15 range. Unfortunately, the changes to his profile from last year don't add a whole lot of upside, and they do add a bit of risk. If another owner is buying the power gains and still seeing the batting average upside, there may never be a better time to sell.

Sell Low

If selling high is one of the most enjoyable acts of a fantasy baseball season, selling low is one of the most painful. Admitting sunk cost is difficult, but there is opportunity in these situations when the admission is managed. Many times other owners will pay above a player's projected value out of a misguided instinct to buy low or on name value alone. Even if the return price is below the price you paid, it may still be well more than the price you'd earn in keeping a broken player on your roster.

Finding sell low candidates for week zero has proven quite a challenge. Thanks to a powerful combination of Loss Aversion and the Halo Effect, negative trends are given much more weight than they deserve. Players who are trending downwards are almost universally devalued, whether justified or not. This creates lots of buy low opportunity, but scant sell low opportunity. This is especially true during the offseason, when all we can do with all the information we have is let it simmer.

Once the season begins and new trends emerge, things change. People will have less time to inundate themselves with analysis on how Francisco Liriano's no hitter wasn't actually a very well pitched game or why Chris Perez didn't really have a very good year. Everything happens at a faster pace, meaning markets have less time to adjust.

Despite my struggles, I did find someone worth discussing, and Oliver had quite a few suggestions as well. So let's look at a pair of pitchders being drafted at a much lower price than they were last year, but might still be better served off of your team than on it.

My Pick: Ubaldo Jimenez
Yahoo! AAC: $5
ESPN AAC: $9
Oliver says: 14-3.56-1.25-219
Oliver's Yahoo! value: $11
Oliver's ESPN value: $13

My first major disagreement with Oliver in this series, Jimenez is also a popular sleeper pick in some circles. It's that very reason that I'm calling him a sell low candidate.

Proponents of the Ubaldo Jimenez sleeper campaign are quick to point out that both his strikeout and walk rates have been relatively stable, and that he's still only a year removed from fantasy acehood.

The first problem with this is that his 2010 season was at least as much of a mirage as his 2011 season, just in the other direction. Even in 2010, he had a 3.60 xFIP and 3.68 SIERA. Those numbers are solid, but considering the declining run environment they're more middle-of-the-pack than ace-like for fantasy purposes.

The second is that a stable 10 percent walk rate is not a good thing. That's a WHIP-killing mark, and I'm quite surprised to see Oliver expect such a nominal WHIP from Jimenez.

The third is that his velocity, swinging strike rate, and first pitch strike rate all took a major nosedive in 2011. In fact, all three were the worst marks of his career. He wasn't throwing as hard, was getting ahead in the count less frequently, and got fewer swings and misses than ever before. So even though his strikeouts remained solid last year, there's quite a bit of sneaky risk here as well.

In checking the other projection systems available on Jimenez's FanGraphs player page, it does turn out that Oliver is more optimistic than any of the six projections featured (Steamer, Bill James, RotoChamp, Marcel, Fan Projection and ZiPS) in all four rotisserie categories. They all still see him as a reasonable value at this cost, but to an extent, they help vindicate my side of this disagreement.

Just to be clear—I do think that at this draft cost Jimenez is a fair value. I just know a lot of other people think he's actually undervalued. I see him as something like the 'anti-Jeremy Hellickson'—a guy who looks like he was very unlucky in 2011 but whose components could also regress toward his surface numbers rather than vice versa. That's a risk a lot of very savvy owners are missing. If you own Jimenez, take advantage of it and sell him while you can still get some positive value compared to his actual projections.

Oliver's Pick: Jon Lester
Yahoo! AAC: $24
ESPN AAC: $16
Oliver Says: 13-3.68-1.27-203
Oliver's Yahoo! Value: $8
Oliver's ESPN Value: $11

Once a lock to be a Top 50 draft selection, a combination of small losses across the board and the declining run environment have caused some of the shine to wear off on Jon Lester's fantasy prospects. Even worse, Oliver sees him as having nowhere to go but down.

Oliver actually views Lester as inferior to my pick, Ubaldo Jimenez. Although I politely disagree, there are some striking similarities.

Like Jimenez, Lester has never been a control guy. In 2010 and 2011, his walk rate started inching up toward the double-digit range, reaching about 9.5 percent both years. In 2011, his strikeouts dropped off a bit as well, from an excellent 26 percent rate in the previous two seasons to a still solid, but less-than-spectacular 22 percent. This was also supported by a decline in swinging strikes and a drop in velocity, so it may be more than just statistical noise.

If you were too tempted by Lester's appearance on your draft board in the fifth or sixth round to pass, Oliver would suggest that now is the time to cash that value in and try to find a payoff elsewhere.

THT Forecasts

If you're curious about the projections and dollar values provided, make sure to check out the THT Forecasts section. For $14.95, you get full access to the Oliver projections for thousands of major and minor leaguers, including six year Major League Equivalency forecasts on every player card. And best of all for us fantasy junkies, you get full access to THT's Custom Fantasy Price Guides, which allows you to create your own price guide based on your league settings and play-style preferences using the Oliver projections, with projections and dollar values updated throughout the season.

Posted by Mark Himmelstein at 5:28am

The Verdict: THT fantasy baseball draft analysis

Fantasy baseball season is heating up as drafts are taking place every day. On March 21, I participated in the second of my four fantasy league drafts. This is the Hardball Times 12-team, mixed AL/NL roto auction league comprising several THT Fantasy writers and bloggers. Overall I am happy with my team, but what do you think?

Here is my team with some commentary and analysis for each pick:

Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Boston. I admittedly do not care at all about catchers in fantasy baseball leagues. While other people were spending big bucks on catchers such as Carlos Santana, Buster Posey, Brian McCann and Joe Mauer, I waited until the end of the draft and grabbed Saltalamacchia for $1.

Is he a superstar? No. Will he hit .300 with 20 home runs and 75 RBI? Probably not. But he is the starting catcher on a good team in a dynamic lineup and will give me sufficient production for a player who will likely play only four or five times a week.

First base: Adrian Gonzalez, Boston. I got A-Gone for $42, which was less than Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols and Joey Votto. I have always been a big fan of Gonzalez. Obviously, hitting at Fenway Park in the middle of the Red Sox lineup means we should expect similar numbers to 2011.

He was sapped of some of his power in the second half last year, so assuming he is fully healthy I anticipate he will approach 40 home runs. He will be right up there with the other elite first baseman and may even gain outfield eligibility if the rumors coming out of Boston are true.

Second base: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh. I was somehow able to steal Neil Walker for $1 later on in the draft. I had held out for a second baseman hoping to sneak Rickie Weeks or Ben Zobrist, but they went well above what I could afford.

Walker is a solid second base option who should thrive in a blossoming Pirates lineup. I expect .280 with 15 home runs, 75 RBI and 15 stolen bases. Not too shabby for a $1 second baseman.

Third base: David Wright, New York Mets. He hasn't played in spring training due to an abdominal injury, but I am still confident that Wright will have a bounce-back season. He is the lone face of the franchise and should benefit from the improved hitting dimensions at Citi Field. He is motivated to prove he can carry a team on his shoulders, so for a position as weak as third base is in fantasy, I have no regrets spending $21 for a third baseman who should hit .290 with 25 home runs, 95 RBI, 90 runs scored and 20 stolen bases. I admit I am a Mets fan (hold your laughter).

Shortstop: Marco Scutaro, Colorado. After the big boys went off the board early, I scooped up Scutaro for $3, hoping to cash in on his move to the thin air of Denver and gaining second base eligibility as well. Scutaro is a late bloomer and has proven he can hit for a good average and score runs. My hope is that the Rockies commit to him at second base and let him play instead of giving some of their younger players an opportunity.

Middle infielder: Ryan Raburn, Detroit. This was another $1 bargain late in the draft. Rayburn has been tearing it up in spring training and has all but locked up the primary second base job with the Tigers. If given sufficient playing time, he should reach 20 home runs this year. He needs to show improvement in his plate discipline and cut back on the strikeouts. Once he can do that, his batting average will start to increase. I am excited about this pick, especially at the price.

Corner infielder: Aramis Ramirez, Milwaukee. After already drafting Wright, I didn't need a third baseman. But the bidding was slow and low on Ramirez and I did need a corner infielder. So for $13, I was able to grab A-Ram, who will be the new protector of NL MVP Ryan Braun in Milwaukee. Ramirez stayed healthy in 2011, and if he can remain healthy he should replicate his usual numbers of .280 with 25 home runs and 85 RBI.

Outfielder: Curtis Granderson, New York Yankees. I had Curtis Granderson in a couple of leagues last year where I was able to draft him for under $10. Not so this year. He was the first player I acquired by spending $31, which is a good value for him because of his power and speed potential. It may be too much to expect a repeat of last year, but he should still easily reach the 30 home run, 100 RBI, 100 runs scored and 20 stolen base marks again. With better plate discipline and big improvements against lefties, his batting average should increase as well.

Outfielder: Hunter Pence, Philadelphia. I have been targeting Pence in all of my drafts. I thought I could get him for $15, but a bidding war ensued and I eventually won at $20. Pence will have his first full season in the bandbox in Philadelphia and should be productive in all five roto categories.

The only downside to him, at least for the beginning of the season, is that he will be sole focus of the Phillies lineup with Ryan Howard recovering from his Achilles surgery and Chase Utley likely starting the season on the DL as well. But Pence has always been a free swinger with technique that would make Tom Emanski vomit, so he may not let teams pitch around him.

Outfielder: Alex Gordon, Kansas City. In 2011, Gordon established himself with his across the board production. Now firmly entrenched as Kansas City's leadoff hitter, Gordon should score plenty of runs this year with the Royals young and talented lineup. As he gets older, he should develop more power, which could translate into 20-25 home runs. I targeted him as I did Pence and got him for $19 which I think is a fair price for Gordon at this point in his career.

Outfielder: Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle. Granted he's old, in decline, and playing for one of the worst offensive teams in the league. However, I was able to get him for only $5, which surprised me. He won't hit .360 or steal 60 bases anymore, but it's not like he has been terrible for several years in a row.

I realize I will not be winning the steals category if I am relying on a 38-year old player to be my primary source of stolen bases, but Ichiro will certainly help keep me competitive. He was well worth the gamble for only one Lincoln.

Utility: Vernon Wells, Los Angeles Angels. Wells should have sent flowers every day to Adam Dunn because if not for Dunn, we would probably be paying a lot more attention to the horrendous season Wells had in 2011.

Saddled with a ridiculous contract, the Angels will keep sending Wells out there to reap whatever benefits they can from that albatross. Despite how bad Wells was last year, he is a strong bounce-back candidate because he has worked hard in the offseason and is motivated to win with the presence of Albert Pujols in their lineup. For only $2, I bought myself a fourth outfielder or utility player capable of hitting over 20 home runs and driving in 75 runs.

Utility: Jason Bay, New York Mets. Ugh. I did it again. This time it was sort of intentional, because I knew I could get Bay for $1. I really think Bay will have a better year than he has shown in his first two seasons with the Mets. Besides being healthy, he will have the shorter fences at Citi Field, which should increase his home run totals.

He was a solid player for seven years and all of a sudden forgot how to play baseball once he came to Queens. Now he sees light at the end of the tunnel with potential trades and being more than halfway done with the contract. Bay will be motivated to prove he does not suck. I will reap those benefits for only $1.

Bench: Ryan Howard, first baseman, Philadelphia. I thought I got Howard as a steal for $10 in my previous draft. Here, I did even better, getting him for $5. He will miss a month, maybe two, depending on how his rehab progresses. So by the time he gets back, it will be like making a huge trade because he will still end up with 25 home runs and 80 RBI. I see no downside to this pick because he was cheap enough to not hinder anything else I was doing. Whatever he does provide will be well worth $5.

Bench: Ryan Roberts, third baseman, Arizona. His tattoos are cool and he has eligibility at multiple positions. He should be the starter at third base for Arizona, so if any of my guys go down on the corners I at least know I have Roberts, who plays every day and can hold his own.

Bench: Russell Martin, catcher, New York Yankees. Continuing my trend of not caring about catchers, I grabbed Russell Martin for $1 with one of my last picks. So near the end of the draft, I got two starting catchers on good teams with good lineups around them who do not suck and have the potential to put up decent fantasy numbers.

Starting pitcher: Cole Hamels, Philadelphia. While I would have rather had Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee, they both went for a lot more money than Hamels did at $22. Hamels is in a contract year and will be extra motivated as he looks to cash in on the next big deal given out to a pitcher. I was very happy with this pick because I think Hamels will be a Cy Young Award candidate this season with 15-18 wins, a sub 3.00 ERA and over 200 strikeouts.

Starting pitcher: Dan Haren, Los Angeles Angels. I was also very happy with this pick as I have always been a fan of Haren. He has the third most wins by a right-handed pitcher since 2005 and is as consistent as they come. I consider him a bargain at $23 because he is a lock for at least 15 wins, a 3.00 ERA and 175 strikeouts.

Starting pitcher: Jon Lester, Boston. For some reason Jon Lester lasted until fairly late in the draft. I had reserved money to spend on closers and a second baseman, but when the bidding stalled around $15, I got involved and landed Boston's ace for $17. He had a bad second half in 2011 and will be motivated to rebound. This could turn out to be one of my best picks of the draft for the value.

Starting pitcher: Gio Gonzalez, Washington. I may have overspent a little on this one, but I think $10 for Gonzalez was worth it. He had a very solid 2011 season and now is part of the up and coming Nationals rotation. He has the benefit of pitching in a big ballpark and gets to face the Mets several times. He should be in line for 12-15 wins with a 3.50 ERA.

Starting pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland. It has been a tremendous fall from grace in a short amount of time for Jimenez. He has been awful since the second half of 2010 and was traded to Cleveland last season. He has pitched fairly well this spring and is a good bounce-back candidate if he can maintain his velocity in the mid-90s. For only $5 it was worth the potential upside.

Starting pitcher: John Danks, Chicago White Sox. I have had John Danks on at least one of my fantasy teams for several years in a row now. He had a terrible first half in 2011 but ended the season strong. He is now one of the anchors of the White Sox staff and is a bargain for just $1.

Relief pitcher: Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs. I waited until the very end to get a closer, and that move paid off. While other teams spent significant dollars on closers such as Craig Kimbrel, Jonathan Papelbon and John Axford early on, I waited and was able to land Marmol for only $6. Granted he had a rough year last year and the Cubs won't be very good this season. But Marmol can be a dominating closer and should reach 35 saves.

Relief pitcher: Joe Nathan, Texas. After landing Marmol, my goal was to get at least one other closer on the cheap. I was able to land the Rangers' new closer, Nathan, for $3. He is now two years removed from his surgery, which is usually when everything starts getting back to normal. Texas will be very good this year so he should have plenty of save opportunities.

Relief pitcher: Brett Myers, Houston. This pick was made purely on gut instinct. Myers was awful last year along with the rest of the Astros. However, they have moved him into the bullpen to be the closer, which is something he thrived at a few years ago with the Phillies. For $3, I figured I would take a shot on him and an additional 20-25 saves and actually make a run at that category.

Bench: Chad Billingsley, starting pitcher, Los Angeles Dodgers. Last year was miserable for Billingsley, who has fallen off everyone's fantasy radar. He has talent and potential, so for only $1, I took a chance on him making a comeback.

Bench: Doug Fister, starting pitcher, Detroit. Because I enjoy making Fister jokes, I am glad he is on my team. He was phenomenal last year after being acquired by the Tigers. He won't blow anyone away, but he should win 12-15 games with good run support and a very good bullpen. For just $2 he is extra pitching insurance.

So that is my team. I recognize that it has some deficiencies, but it should be competitive. I am banking on several players having bounce-back years, which is a risky proposition. My biggest weaknesses are in the outfield and saves. As I said earlier, I don’t care about my catchers as long as they play regularly and don’t completely suck. I will certainly need to be creative and aggressive in the trade market depending on how things progress.

Posted by Michael Stein at 3:01am

Monday, March 26, 2012

This week in (fantasy) baseball 3/19-3/25

It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a regular basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Sean Marshall likely to assume closer role in Cincinnati

Remember all the praise heaped upon the Reds front-office this offseason for not rushing to hand a closer a multi-year deal? In a macabre sort of way, the Reds' prudence could not have been more validated than it was this weekend when Ryan Madson learned he’ll need Tommy John surgery, thus nuking his 2012 season.

Obviously, fantasy owners with plans to draft the Reds' late-inning man should slam the brakes on Madson immediately and begin looking for replacements. Dusty Baker’s reputation suggests he’ll tap a veteran over a younger pitcher for the job, which in this case would favor lefty setup man Sean Marshall. One of baseball’s best setup men over the past few years, Marshall, 29, compiled a 2.45 ERA, 1.104 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 over the past two years with the Cubs, and should slot in as a nice No. 2 closer with some upside.

Madson’s bad news also helps ensure Aroldis Chapman will stay in the bullpen this year. With lefty Bill Bray recovering from a strained left groin, Chapman’s services as a situational pitcher will be more necessary than ever, though his strikeout potential means he could make a run at the closer’s job if he can find a way to cut down on the 7.4 BB/9 he posted last year. Rounding out the closer candidates is Nick Masset, a guy who posted strong numbers in 2010 as a middle reliever but regressed last year, and has dealt with a sore shoulder this spring.

Tommy John surgery ruins Joakim Soria's season

Speaking of closers with elbow issues, Soria did, in fact, choose Tommy John surgery this past week, throwing the Royals’ bullpen into disarray. For his part, manager Ned Yost is still tantalizing fantasy owners as he dances around the decision to name either Jonathan Broxton or Greg Holland as Soria’s replacement, so for the time being, try grabbing both of them in deeper leagues as we await the news.

Both men are intriguing fantasy options; Broxton, of course, has posted some terrific seasons as LA’s closer, but elbow problems over the past season and a half have raised serious questions about his durability, even if his velocity has hovered around the mid-90s this spring. Holland, meanwhile, had an outstanding 2011 (1.80 ERA, 0.933 WHIP, 11.1 K/9), but the 26-year-old has no major league closing experience and has enjoyed only one full season at this level so far.

Drew Storen at risk to miss Opening Day

Wait, the bad news on closers isn’t over yet. Nationals fireman Drew Storen is still dealing with elbow inflammation, and there’s a chance he won’t be ready for Opening Day. Manager Davey Johnson has already ruled out bumping up Tyler Clippard to the job, since he wants to make sure his number-one setup man keeps doing what he did so well last year, leaving offseason acquisition Brad Lidge and Henry Rodriguez to fight for the job.

Obviously, a healthy Lidge would be an ideal candidate, given his 223 career saves. But Lidge, now 35, threw fewer than 20 innings last season, the third straight year in which his innings count has declined, and signed with Washington after realizing no team was prepared to hand him the keys to a closer’s job this year.

Rodriguez, whose fastball averaged 98 mph over more than 65 innings last year, brings an ideal closer’s makeup to the table, though he’s coming off a 6.2 BB/9 and 1.508 WHIP, number that are unacceptable for a team looking to make a postseason run this year. But he picked up two saves toward the end of last year, has been dominant so far this spring and Johnson is well-known for supporting younger players in their bids to establish themselves as major-league ready.

If I had to guess, I’d say Rodriguez is the front-runner to spot Storen at season’s outset, and could be an interesting sleeper depending on how long the Nationals’ star reliever is sidelined.

More injury news for Chris Carpenter

Here are two words fantasy owners never want to hear about one of their players: “out indefinitely.” Especially when the news centers on a soon-to-be 37-year-old pitcher with a history of injury problems.

While Carpenter’s latest setback likely comes as little surprise, fantasy owners should look upon him as nothing less than radioactive as the season gets underway. Dealing with nerve irritation, Carpenter’s well-traveled shoulder has left the team with “no timetable” (another scary word coupling) for his return, and this news follows the disclosure of a cervical disc injury that had already cut down on his innings this spring.

I’m no doctor, so I’m not going to speculate on how long these injuries will keep Carpenter out of action. (It’s worth noting that general manager John Mozeliak has compared this injury to the one that ruined Carpenter’s 2004 season and obstructed his return from elbow surgery in 2008.)

Since there are plenty of other starting pitchers available to draft, there’s little incentive to gamble on a guy with such question marks. As far as St. Louis is concerned, Lance Lynn, 24, is probably the guy who stands to benefit the most from Carpenter’s absence. Although he’s made only two major league starts in his young career, he posted a 3.69 ERA, 1.330 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 over a minor league career, during which he started almost exclusively. Lynn’s enjoyed a strong spring so far, so he could make for an interesting sleeper in deeper NL-only leagues.

No timetable for Chase Utley's return

Okay, so Chase Utley didn’t announce his retirement Sunday, but there’s no real timetable for his return due to his ailing left knee, and talk of microfracture surgery is never a good sign. When will he return? At this point, it’s anyone’s guess, so you might as well avoid him altogether in most leagues.

Meanwhile, Freddy Galvis, a shortstop by trade, is the guy most likely to see at-bats at second the early going. Problem is, he’s an all-glove, no-hit player, and might not be worth drafting even on a competitive Phillies team.

Skip Schumaker injures right oblique

The Cardinals lost another key player early last week when a MRI revealed a tear in Schumaker’s right oblique, sidelining him indefinitely and surely zapping his odds of making the Opening Day roster. In his place at the keystone position, keep an eye on Tyler Greene and especially Daniel Descalso, who’s posted a .961 OPS so far this spring (through Saturday). Descalso doesn’t hit for power or steal bases, but he did hit .264 in 326 at-bats last year, so the 25-year-old might be worth a look in deeper NL-only leagues.

Other news and notes from around the majors

• Arodys Vizcaino, one of the Braves’ best pitching prospects, will miss the 2012 season due to Tommy John surgery. His absence certainly helps the major-league cases of Mike Minor, Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado as they look to secure starts.

• Mike Trout returned last week after battling the flu all spring. But his lack of spring training service could give the Angels an excuse to have him start the year at Triple-A, which was foreseeable anyway given the team’s currently crowded outfield.

• Chipper Jones may be on his way to the Hall of Fame, but the start of his final season will be delayed due to arthroscopic surgery to repair torn meniscus in his left knee. He’s not expected to miss significant time, and is currently projected to make the Braves’ April 13 home opener.

• Ryan Vogelsong (strained back) and Freddy Sanchez (shoulder) will both likely start the season on the DL, though indications suggest they’ll be back by mid-April.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:13am

Bold predictions for 2012!

Well folks, it’s that time of the year once again. Let me climb out onto a limb and pontificate on my boldest predictions for the upcoming season.
If you’re curious about my predictive prowess, feel free to check out my column from last offseason where I made my bold predictions for 2011.

Let me first clarify that these aren’t necessarily what I absolutely believe will happen, hence bold predictions.

Adam Dunn hits 35+ home runs: Many fantasy players and prognosticators are predicting a rebound of sorts for Dunn in 2012 (how could he possibly be any worse?). While most project him for a 20-25 homer season, I think that he regains most of his previous power form.

Even during his abysmal 2011, he still managed a nice walk rate (15.1 percent) and flyball rate (47.5). The culprit for the drop in homers was simply the weak contact he made, leading to a homer-per-fly rate of only 9.6 percent (atrocious by Dunn's standards). While you can’t place too much stock in offseason fluff stories, Dunn has by all accounts worked extremely hard. He swung a bat over the winter for the first time in his career and is in fairly good shape (for his body type, at least). I think we see the Grande Mule of old in 2012. I expect Dunn to look in vintage form, hitting 35-plus home runs with a .240 average.

Jason Motte finishes as the No. 1 closer in baseball: In terms of pure stuff, Motte is an off-the-charts talent. With Mike Matheny settling into the managerial role and naming Motte his closer, he doesn’t have to deal with the psychological mind games from Tony LaRussa any longer and can focus on dominating National League hitters.

His strikeout-to-walk rate has improved each of the last three seasons, as has his homers-per-nine rate. Hitters facing Motte last season managed only a .198 batting average against him. Pitching for a competitive Cardinals team, there should be plenty of opportunities for him to rack up saves. Combining 45 saves with outstanding ratios and solid strikeout numbers, Motte finishes as your top closer this year.

Mat Gamel hits 30 homers and drives in 100 runs: Mmmmm, post-hype sleeper. Gamel has always had the pedigree for stardom and now he finally looks poised to receive his first real shot at extended playing time. I have a feeling that Gamel will start off hot and settle comfortably into the fifth spot in the lineup behind Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez, providing him with ample RBI opportunities.

He’s made significant progress in his plate discipline, cutting his strikeouts each of the last three seasons in the minor leagues, putting up a very respectable 15.4 strikeout percentage last season. If he can bring that with him to the major league level, he will have a major breakout season in 2012.

Francisco Liriano wins 15 games and strikes out 200-plus: Maybe I’m a sucker, but I’m completely buying the hype and what I see out of Liriano this spring. His velocity is good and his slider looks sharp. Most importantly, his control has been outstanding with an 18/2 K/BB ratio in 13 innings pitched. It looks like Liriano is poised to have a very nice season, provided that he can stay healthy enough to log 180 innings. Don’t be surprised when he posts the best season of his still young career.

Yonder Alonso hits .300 with 20 home runs and drives in 100: Here’s a guy who is extremely undervalued in drafts right now. He’s always displayed solid hit tools and the ability to drive in runs. Many people are devaluing him with the move to Petco, but I think it’s a mistake. Playing in San Diego, he’s assured of getting full time at-bats, and should hit in the middle of the order. While he doesn’t provide prototypical power, he’s a “professional hitter.” I expect big things from this young hitter in 2012.

Well, there you have it! These are just a few of my bold predictions for 2012. If you agree or disagree with any of these, I’d love to hear about it. Leave your comments here or find me on twitter @DaveShovein.

Posted by Dave Shovein at 2:20am

Friday, March 23, 2012

Top 100 Fantasy baseball Prospects, Part 3: 51-75

50: Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Best MLE wOBA is .290 in 2011. Poor defense record. Peak .253/.317/.394.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Gose's play in the AFL was essentially an extension of his play in Double-A all year. His .250/.348/.433 slash in the AFL was a near carbon copy of his .253/.349/.415 slash with New Hampshire in the Eastern League.
He understands the value of a walk, but struggles to make contact. After struggling with inefficiency stealing bases in 2010, he became a great base stealer in 2011. While hitting is a completely different skill, if his growth as a base runner foreshadows his ability to be coached up elsewhere, Gose could really turn the corner in 2012. He's primed to enjoy the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but is stuck behind a crowded outfield on the parent club.

October 2011: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.

He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.

51: Michael Olt/3B/Texas Rangers/8-27-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 result in a projection of useful home run power from the hot corner, with a poor batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Olt had a huge showing in the AFL. He hit .349/.433/.764 and his power was in full force. Olt crushed 13 home runs in 127 plate appearances, leading the AFL, and six more than the next closest hitter. He struck out often, but also walked at a high rate. Basically, his play in the AFL was an extension of his minor league play with some BABIP luck sprinkled in, and the aid of a home run friendly environment. Olt should get his first taste of the upper minors in 2012, opening in Double-A.

October 2011: Olt suffered a broken collarbone which shortened a season that was off to a solid start. He projects to hit for power, but he'll need to cut back on his strikeout rate to hit for average. His defense is quite good at the position, but a move to the outfield may be necessitated by Adrian Beltre's long-term deal in Texas. If he moves to the outfield, he drops entirely off this list. Plus power at third base with the potential for a passable average is too much to pass up at this point on the list.

52: Matt Harvey/SP/New York Mets/3-27-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Yet to have a major league quality season; 2011 is best with 4.3 BB/9, 8.4 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Harvey spent half of the season toying with High-A hitters before a promotion to Double-A. In Double-A, he retained a high strikeout rate, though, it did drop a bit. His walk rate rose from 2.84 BB/9, which is quite good, to just a passable 3.47 BB/9. Both component stats should have resulted in better than his 4.53 ERA, something his 3.23 FIP can attest to. He induces more groundball outs than flyball outs and he may not even require a full season in the minors before making his big league debut. It's possible the Mets could send him back to Double-A for more time there, but I expect he'll open the year in Buffalo with their Triple-A affiliate.

October 2011: Harvey follows Wheeler on this list, but it is debatable which is the better prospect. That's good news for the Mets assuming both reach their ceiling. Harvey throws a plus fastball in the low-to-mid-90s and can touch the 95-97 mph range. He also throws a hard slider, a plus curveball that could develop into a plus-plus pitch according to Goldstein, and a developing change-up. The development of his change-up is going to determine whether he just lives up to his high floor, or reaches his front-of-the-rotation ceiling.

53: Jarrod Parker/SP/Oakland Athletics/11-24-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Oliver's six year forecast is that of a replacement level player, almost exactly.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The most important stat for Parker in 2011 was his 136.1 innings pitched. He remained healthy, and regained much of his pre-Tommy John injury stuff according to most reports. Parker found his name in the transactions as he was dealt from the Diamondbacks to the A's in a multi-player package that saw Trevor Cahill head to Arizona. He'll no longer call the pitcher-friendlier National League home, but he'll offset the change of leagues by swapping hitter-friendly Chase Field for the O. co Coliseum (previously just called the Oakland Coliseum).

At his best, Parker uses a low-90s sinking fastball to induce groundballs, and his slider to strike batters out. His slider was graded as the best in the Diamondbacks organization before surgery, and it reportedly gained much of its sharpness back as 2011 wore on, and he was further removed from the operation. His other secondary offerings include an above average change-up, and a show-me curveball. Parker's control has been shoddy in the spring, walking six in 7.1 innings. He was sent down to the minors on Monday, but remains in the mix for the A's fifth starter spot as they don't need one until April 17.

October 2011: John Sickels wrote an outstanding Prospect of the Day piece recently about Parker. In short, his stuff is still there, but he's still working to regain control after Tommy John surgery shelved him last season. He isn't throwing his slider as much, but it remains a plus offering. Before his injury he'd have ranked much higher. If he goes back to using the slider more frequently as a punch-out pitch and his strikeout rate climbs, he'll shoot up the list.

54: Randall Delgado/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: 2010 only year with MLE ERA under 6 (4.21)
Scouting notes: March 2012: Delgado got a taste of life in the majors last year, starting seven games for the Braves. He could begin the year in the major league rotation filling in for Tim Hudson while he recovers from offseason back surgery. Delgado's 2.83 ERA in 35 major league innings suggests he's big league ready, but his advanced measures paint a different picture. His control needs work, and his strikeout rate was low and could stand to improve.

His low strikeout rate was largely a result of a low whiff rate on his fastball. Most scouting reports grade his curveball as being ahead of his change-up. With that in mind, it was surprising to see that his change-up generated a whiff rate of 19.29 percent, per his Brooks Baseball player card, compared to 10.0 percent whiff rate on his curveball. His ability to generate empty swings with both secondary pitches should help him improve his strikeout rate substantially in time.

October 2011: The Braves have a glut of young talented pitchers, but not everyone views Delgado as being in the same class as the rest. He throws a fastball in the low-to-mid 90s, a plus curveball and a developing change-up that is described as average with plus potential.

His command is lacking, and is his biggest problem at this point in his young career. His strikeout rates have been solid, but have slipped a bit at each level he's moved up (with the exception being 21.2 innings in Triple-A this year). His walk rate has fluctuated between passable in the mid-3s BB/9, to mildly concerning in the lower-to-mid-4s BB/9.

There is no reason to rush the youngster with all of the rotation under contract (or team control) next season, and other more polished arms like Teheran, Mike Minor and Vizcaino to turn to, so expect to see Delgado spending a significant chunk of next year in Triple-A (barring a trade).

55: Brad Peacock/SP/Oakland A's/2-2-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 and two years of 8+ K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Parker wasn't the only prospect starting pitcher the A's acquired this offseason. In a separate trade, the A's further overhauled their pitching staff sending Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals in return for a prospect haul that included Peacock. A breakout season in the minors earned him three appearances, two of which were starts, with the Nationals in 2011. His 12 innings pitched are too few to draw firm conclusions about his ultimate major league value, but they did provide some PITCHf/x data.

According to his Brooks Baseball player card, he threw two fastballs, but primarily leaned on his four-seamer that averaged 93.19 mph. He also threw a change-up and curveball. His secondary pitches were thrown with near equal frequency. He turned to his change-up 18 percent of the time, and his curveball 15 percent of the time. Of the two, his curveball was much better at creating empty swings from opposing hitters, and the data lined up with his scouting reports, which grade his curveball more favorably than his change-up. Peacock is in the mix for one of three remaining rotation spots. He has been pummeled this spring, and may end up in Sacramento pitching for the A's Triple-A affiliate to begin the year as a result.

October 2011: He was one of John Sickels' breakout prospects coming into the year, and boy, oh boy, was he right. Peacock put together a monster season and now is on top-50 prospect lists left and right. His fastball is a plus pitch and sometimes is described as a plus-plus pitch. He also throws a curveball that some, such as Baseball America, describe as a knuckle curve. It is a swing-and-miss pitch that is a nice pairing with his fastball.

What will determine how successful he can be in the big leagues is how good his change-up becomes. Some still question its ability to develop into an average third offering and think Peacock will end up in the bullpen. I'm willing to gamble it becomes good enough to work through lineups multiple times and pile up strikeouts.

56: Trevor May/SP/Philadelphia Phillies/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: MLE of 6.1 BB/9 in 2011 is career best, as is 10.5 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: May is one of the minor leagues' finest strikeout artists. He made major advances to his control, and was much better in his second go-round with High-A Clearwater. He's now ready for the challenges of the upper minors, and is ready to open the year with Double-A Reading.

October 2011: May's stock is rising after he cut his walk rate from a ghastly 7.84 BB/9 last year to a palatable 4.05 BB/9. His strikeout rate is elite, as the Forecast MLE suggests. He repeated High-A as a 21-year-old this year, so he'll need to prove himself against Double-A hitters next year before moving up this list. He's a tall pitcher 6-foot-5 and has a body that is projectable to add on to. In addition to a fastball that is a plus pitch and can hit the mid-90s, he throws curveballs and change-ups plus potential. If he can develop his secondary stuff and refine his control, his ability to miss bats could put him on the fast track through the upper minors, making the mild age concerns due to repeating a level a moot point.

57: Arodys Vizcaino/SP/Atlanta Braves/11-13-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Two good years. Cut BB/9 to below 3 with a 7.5 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Uh oh, my words last October cautioning that Vizcaino may not have been out of the woods simply resting and rehabbing a partial tear of the UCL appear prophetic now. Of course I'm not a doctor, nor do I pretend to be, but this isn't the first case of a player eventually needing surgery after suffering a partial tear. That's not to say he should have simply had surgery and gotten it out of the way. As Will Carroll tweeted to me, you always attempt to avoid surgery.

Thankfully, medical advances mean this injury is no longer a death knell to a pitcher's career. Unfortunately, it means Vizcaino will miss all of this season, and likely some of next year. It also probably assures him a future role in the bullpen. He's still in the development stages of his career, he has never shown the ability to stay healthy, and working as a starter would require a longer time to build his innings up. His fantasy value drops significantly with a move to the pen, and he won't appear on the next top-100 fantasy prospect update.

October 2011: He's a former Yankees farmhand. The Braves are reaping the benefits of the prospect they received for Javier Vazquez. His stuff grades out well by all scouting outlets, and his performance has been tremendous. Just taking those into account, he'd rank considerably higher.

Not all is good with Vizcaino, though, which is why he lands on the list here. Last year he opted to rehab a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament (the Tommy John ligament). Thus far, that appears to have been a good choice. That said, it's possible, if not probable, that he'll tear it completely and require surgery in the future. Another knock against him is that this is his first season eclipsing 100 innings pitched, meaning he still has to prove he can stay healthy and build up his innings.

The last, and not least, knock against him is that being part of a loaded Braves pitching stable makes his future role uncertain. In most organizations he'd be a slam dunk to continue development as a starter, but the Braves have a number of young pitchers both in their major league rotation and knocking on the door. They may use him as a high-leverage late innings reliever to keep him healthy, and not test his small frame's limits. Those who trust his front-line starter three-pitch mix of a plus velocity fastball, curveball and change-up should move him up the list.

58: Archie Bradley/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/8-10-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Has thrown only two innings in Rookie Level ball, so he doesn't have a forecast yet.
Scouting notes: March 2012: In most draft classes, Bradley would have been the top prep arm. In 2011, that distinction was reserved in the eyes of most for fellow Oklahoma high school pitcher Dylan Bundy. Bradley has a high ceiling in his own right; in fact, his ceiling is that of an ace. He has many hurdles to clear in his development, but the seeds of something special are there.

October 2011: He throws a fastball that has hit 101 mph. If that's not enough to get the juices flowing, he also throws a hammer curveball that's praised by all outlets. He also throws a change-up that gets mixed reviews. His control lacks consistency, so expect him to be brought along slowly by the Diamondbacks. His ceiling is extremely high, high enough that Sickels suggests he may have been a steal at pick seven.

59: Mike Montgomery/SP/Kansas City Royals/7-1-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Poor 2011 after good 2009-10 with too many walks (3.9, 3.6, 5.2 BB/9).
Scouting notes: March 2012: Expected by most to be the leader of a wave of young pitchers reaching the big leagues for the Royals, Montgomery went backwards in 2011. His walk rate jumped to north of four batters per-nine innings. He was at his worst prior to the All-Star break with a 4.88 BB/9. Montgomery's control was much better post All-Star break with a 2.99 BB/9. As long as he possesses a power arsenal, he'll remain a high ceiling prospect. He has been brutal in two spring appearances for the Royals, and looks to tackle Triple-A yet again to begin the 2012 season.

October 2011: He's still left-handed, and he still has electric stuff. The results have been lackluster, though, as his control is less than I'd like to see, and his strikeout rate isn't high enough to offset it. He's just 22, so he has time to iron out his issues. The scouting industry remains high on him, but Sickels hints he may downgrade him from a B+ grade to a B and Keith Law suggesting a potential drop of 30- plus spots on his list. He doesn't look like a slam dunk to reach his high ceiling, but if he puts it together this ranking will look foolishly low.

60: Cory Spangenberg/2B/San Diego Padres/3-16-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: The data are limited, but Oliver translated his professional work in 2011 into an MLE slash of .285/.351/.380.
Scouting notes: The Padres selected Spangenberg with the 10th pick in last June's amateur draft. He played third base in college, but has been switched to second base as a pro. His power is of the gap variety, and won't be done any favors calling PETCO park home. It's the other facets of his offensive profile that will appeal to fantasy gamers.

Spangenberg projects to hit for a plus average, and work walks. When on base, Spangenberg will look to use his plus-plus speed to steal bases in bunches. In just 275 at-bats split between Short Season ball and Low-A, he used his wheels to swipe 25 bases in 33 chances (75.6 percent success rate). He should open the year in High-A, and may not need more than this year and next to hone his craft in the minors.

61: Billy Hamilton/SS/Cincinnati Reds/9-9-90/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Great steals, good glove, no bat, lots of strikeouts.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Hamilton followed up his 103 stolen base season in Low-A with a trip to the Puerto Rican Winter League. His offseason was a rough one. He broke a bone in his hand, though, he's fully recovered now. Prior to suffering the injury, he struggled to hit, finishing with a line of .194/.286/.194 in 36 at-bats. That sample is way to small to freak out about, but it's obviously always better to see top prospects performing well in any setting and over any period of time.

He'll begin the year in High-A, and after reading his scouting reports, I'm not overly optimistic he'll move faster than a level at a time. His speed is off the charts, though, and he's worth dreaming on for now.

October 2011: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks has described his speed as a 90 on the 20-to-80 scale—quite high praise. He's raw and developing, and he'll need to continue to improve making contact, but his plus-plus speed tool and insane stolen base upside at shortstop make him worth a gamble. He's unlikely to bring any power, but young Jose Reyes-type steal numbers would look quite nice if he's able to hit enough to reach the majors.

62: George Springer/OF/Houston Astros/9-19-89/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Some home runs, some walks, lots of strikeouts.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Springer is often described as toolsier than your average college draftee. The Astros nabbed him in the first round of last June's draft, and signed him quickly enough that he was able to play in eight games in the Short Season New York-Penn League. He has the plus power/speed combo that fantasy gamers crave, but his ability as a hitter is more questionable. His strikeout rates were very high in his freshman and sophomore years at the University of Connecticut. He struck out in 25.0 percent of his at-bats as a freshman, and in 28.8 percent of his at-bats as a sophomore. He cut his strikeout rate back substantially to 16.0 percent as a junior.

If he's able to keep his whiffs in check as a pro, his prospect stock will rise rapidly. He'll open the year in Low-A, and the amount of time he spends in the minors will likely come down to how real his gains as a hitter in his junior year were.

October 2011: The words "upside," "tools" and "raw" are thrown around in just about every notable scouting report on Astros first-round pick George Springer. He has plus speed and plus power potential, but his swing mechanics have come into question and he isn't as developed as your typical high first-round college hitter. He's a high risk/high reward prospect, but because he's older than prep boom-or-bust prospects Bubba Starling and Josh Bell, he's finds himself rated lower.

63: Javier Baez/SS/Chicago Cubs/12-1-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes:Too small a sample as a 2011 draftee
Scouting notes: March 2012: Baez didn't sign until the Aug. 15 deadline, but that didn't prevent him from playing in three Arizona Rookie level league games, and two in Short Season ball. He has the type of power and batting average projection to suggest he could eventually hit in the heart of the order at the friendly confines of Wrigley Field. He'll begin the year in Low-A.

October 2011: Baez is a high offensive ceiling 2011 draftee who currently plays shortstop. Some think he'll need to move to third base, which is why he slots here instead of a dozen or more spots higher. Another knock against Baez is that his makeup has been questioned by a number of scouts. As far as positives, he has plus bat speed that should allow him to hit for power, but Project Prospects' Steve Carter questions if the way he generates plus bat speed will allow him to reach his ceiling as a hitter. Whether he plays shortstop or third base, the potential for both a plus power and hitting makes him an exciting prospect.

64: Dante Bichette Jr./3B/New York Yankees/9-26-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Data limited, but his MLE .756 OPS in his professional debut is pretty impressive for a young man who was an 18-year-old last season.
Scouting notes: Bichette was selected in the supplemental first round of last June's draft by the Yankees. He signed quickly, and absolutely annihilated Gulf Coast Leauge pitching, hitting .342/.446/.505 with 23 extra base hits and a 30:41 walk-to-strikeout rate in 240 plate appearances. Perhaps more impressive than his bat was how well he performed in the field. Drafted as a third baseman, many thought he'd end up being forced to the outfield. He showed enough fielding skills at the hot corner to provide hope he can stick there.

Bichette is a below average runner. That won't hurt his fantasy value too much, as he projects to hit for above average power, and add a solid batting average. As his outstanding walk rate suggests, he's got a mature approach at the dish in spite of his youth. He will play in his first full season league in 2012, opening in Low-A.

65: Starling Marte/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/10-9-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: .280s type hitter with a little bit of power and speed.
Scouting notes: March 2012: In over 1,400 career minor league at-bats, Marte has hit .309/.366/.453. It would be nice to see him improve his walk rate, but that .309 batting average is spectacular. Extended a spring training invite, he made the most of his 25 at-bats, hitting .520/.520/.920 with three long balls. Alas, the inevitable demotion to the minors came on Sunday.

He'll open the year in Triple-A, but should be promoted during the season. With Alex Presley impressing last year, and Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata cemented in the other two starting outfield positions, Marte's first taste of the majors could come in a fourth outfielder capacity. Because of that, the Pirates may choose to keep him in the minors most of the year so that he can get regular playing time.

October 2011: Marte is a tremendous athlete learning to play baseball. He's a plus defender who may force the Pirates to move Andrew McCutchen to a corner outfield position. His most salivating tool, especially from a fantasy perspective, is his plus-plus speed. His success rate (just 66.6 percent) indicates he's still learning, but his 24 stolen bases are solid. His power is average-ish, but he has a chance to contribute a bit in the future.

He hit for a ton of average (.332) in Double-A and projects to have a plus hit tool. The fly in the ointment with Marte is his incredibly aggressive approach at the plate, which may not allow him to fully take advantage of his plus-plus speed and his hitting skill if more advanced pitchers make him hit their pitches. His walk-to-strikeout rate was 22:100 this year; he'll need to learn to be patient if he wants to reach base at a high rate. Walking is considered an old person skill, so there is hope he's able to learn.

66: Nick Franklin/SS/Seattle Mariners/3-2-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: 2011 saw a regression in power. Oliver still likes him to hit upper teen home run totals in the next six years, but with few walks and a low batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: It appears at least some, but perhaps most, of Franklin's struggles in 2011 can be attributed to poor health. He suffered a concussion and broken jaw that caused him to miss time, and fought through a case of mononucleosis.

Franklin was able to make up some of his missed time by accumulating 102 plate appearances in the AFL. There, he hit .258/.333/.393, showing a bit of pop, hitting two home runs, and some patience, walking 11 times. He also showcased a propensity for striking out, recording 26. A healthy season that will start in Double-A should better help in gauging Franklin's future offensive projection. He finished the year strongly there in 2011, and if he picks up where he left off, he could end up in Tacoma before long.

October 2011: Franklin is the Sudoku puzzle of prospects. Last year he ripped 23 home runs in his full season debut while swiping 25 bases. This year he opened in the hitter friendly confines of the High-A Cal league and his power took a dive, producing just five home runs in 258 at-bats. The Mariners promoted him to Double-A, and his power output and his hitting in general improved substantially (albeit in a small sample). He's playing passable defense at shortstop, but some, such as Jim Callis, suggest he'll eventually move to second base. He's set to play in the Arizona Fall League, and is the most likely player on this list to see his stock soar or plummet based on his performance there.

67: Oswaldo Arcia/OF/Minnesota Twins/5-9-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: MLEs regressed in 2011 but projected for 25-30 homers with few walks.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Arcia didn't participate in any offseason leagues, but he did receive nine at-bats in spring training. They were uneventful, and do nothing to change his timetable or future projection. He remains a prospect with the potential to hit for average and power. Arcia was good, but not great in High-A, and he'll open the year there to further refine his craft. Already a veteran of 228 plate appearances there, he may not spend more than a half season with Fort Myers.

October 2011: He's young with plus power projection and a solid average. He's a ways away, but has shown enough for Keith Law to rank him in the middle of his Midseason Top-50 Prospect List. He'll need to tighten his command of the strike zone to really flourish (9:53 walk-to-strikeout in 213 High-A at bats).

68: Nick Castellanos/3B/Detroit Tigers/3-4-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Projects to have below average power for a corner position in the next six years.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Surfing around the internet after the Tigers signed Prince Fielder and announced Miguel Cabrera's move back across the diamond to the hot corner yielded some comical, but expected, overreaction to what it meant for Castellanos' future.

Castellanos has finished just one full season of minor league ball, and is a few years away from competing for a major league roster spot. What that means is, the speculation is likely much ado about nothing. After spending all of 2011 in Low-A, he'll begin the year in High-A in 2012.

October 2011: His bat gets good grades from most, and most scouting reports expect him to develop his power as he matures and eclipse 20 home runs annually. He has what some describe as a sweet swing with good bat speed that allowed him to hit over .300 in Single-A this year. He may have to sacrifice some average to generate power, but most would sign up for a .280 average if it comes with 20 plus home runs from their fantasy third baseman. Toss in his respectable 8 percent walk rate as a 19 year old in full season minor league baseball and the seeds of a middle-of-the-order hitter are in place to bloom in Detroit.

69: Robbie Erlin/SP/San Diego Padres/10-8-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Great walk rate with above league average strikeout rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Erlin is a control guy, but but some question whether he has a put-away pitch capable of striking out major league hitters. Just over four innings in spring training isn't enough time to determine anything, but he has yet to strike anyone out, so I'll mention it.

Reports of his change-up having deception and a double-digit disparity in velocity from his fastball lead me to believe he'll do enough to keep hitters off balance to continue to succeed. Control of multiple pitches and the ability to change speeds can go a long way. Erlin will begin the year in Triple-A as part of a prospect-laden rotation that includes fellow hurlers Casey Kelly and Joe Wieland. Could be a photo finish in the race to the majors for this trio.

October 2011: Erlin is a left-handed pitcher whose fastball operates in the upper-80s to low-90s. He throws an above- average curveball and change-up, but neither pitch is described as being exceptional. Most scouting reports peg his ceiling as a solid No. 3 starter.

How is a pitcher with this description ranked among the top prospects in baseball? It's a perfect storm of positives for Erlin that land him here. Every scouting report I've read lauds his control and high pitching IQ, which he uses to sequence his pitches in ways that maximize their effectiveness. His results have been great in Double-A, where he's struck out more than eight times as many hitters as he's walked (92 strikeouts to 11 walks in 92.2 innings). The final factor is his new organization. He was dealt from the unfavorable home confines in Texas to San Diego, where he can now call PETCO home.

70: Derek Norris/C/Oakland A's/2-14-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: How much are you willing to pay in the average category for around 20 home runs? Classic low average slugging catcher projection, gets boost in value in OBP leagues.
Scouting notes: Norris was a three-true-outcomes (home runs, strikeouts, and walks are defined as those "true outcomes") machine in 2011. Over 50 percent of his plate appearances ended in in a home run, strikeout or walk. He hit for a lowly .210 average in Double-A, but his walk rate helped him post a solid .367 on-base percentage.

Can he continue to walk at such a high rate in Triple-A and in the majors? The answer likely comes down to whether he can make enough contact on pitches in the zone to force pitchers into throwing quality strikes. If they are only required to throw strikes, and not necessarily quality strikes, it's unlikely he'll continue to earn ball fours moving up the ladder.

Norris does have the type of raw power to punish a mistake, as he hit 20 home runs last year. It should also be noted that according to his Stat Corner page, a large percentage of his strikeouts the last two years have been looking, not swinging. A converted third baseman, Norris is a plus athlete for a catcher. He used his athleticism and decent speed to steal 13 bases in 17 chances. He shows the defensive chops to stick behind the plate, according to his scouting reports.

Norris found himself behind young Wilson Ramos in Washington. An offseason trade to the A's help clear his path to the majors. Incumbent A's catcher Kurt Suzuki is signed through 2013 with a club option for 2014, but could be used as a trade chip for a rebuilding squad. Norris will open the year in Triple-A with Sacramento.

71: Sonny Gray/SP/Oakland A's/11-7-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Gray's underwhelming college stats in 2009 and 2010 likely play a big role in his poor six-year forecast.
Scouting notes: Gray made himself at home in professional baseball immediately. The A's selected Gray 18th overall out of Vanderbilt, and he made a splash in five Double-A starts. In those starts which spanned 20 innings, he allowed only one earned run. That's right, just one. Now, here is the part where I need to caution that stats aren't the be-all, end-all in grading and evaluating a prospect.

Gray is a short right-handed pitcher, standing 5-foot-11. In spite of being undersized, he packs a fastball that sits in the low-90s and can hit 96-97 mph. His best pitch is a nasty curveball that Baseball America rated as the best in the 2011 draft class. He's working on a change-up, but it lags behind his fastball and curveball. If the pitch fails to develop as hoped, Gray has a nice floor of being a late inning reliever, and potentially a closer.

While Double-A hitters would like to have bid him adieu once and for all at the end of 2011, he returns there to open the year, and hopes to continue to dominate. By starting the year in the upper minors, he leaves open the chance that he could reach the majors this year.

72: Yonder Alonso/1B-OF/San Diego Padres/4-8-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Not nearly enough power or average to be more than a stop-gap corner infield option in large mixed leagues.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Alonso is finally free from Cincinnati, and no longer is blocked by Joey Votto at his natural position. Unfortunately, he trades Great American Ballpark for Petco. Though his minor league stats don't suggest it, Alonso has above average power. He finally began to tap into that pop in his limited major league time. He's likely more of a threat to hit 20-25 home runs annually than 25-30 like some of his other mashing first base contemporaries. He makes up for some of the difference in power by showcasing a well-balanced approach. Alonso should hit for a high average, and reach base regularly by walking often.

The Padres may not wish to overwhelm him with the responsibility of slotting him in the third or fourth spot in the lineup initially, but he eventually projects to hit in the heart of the order. He'll begin the year with the Padres, and is a worthwhile gamble as a corner infield option in large mixed leagues.

October 2011: Alonso is a finished product for the most part, and thus, his floor is about what you see. His home run rate in the majors won't last, as he is more of a high teens home run hitter than one pacing for 30 plus. His hitting is good enough that he may be capable of flirting with .300 annually. He's playing outfield now because he's blocked at first base by Joey Votto, but make no mistake about it, he's a first baseman in the outfield.

If he isn't traded in the offseason to a team in need of a first baseman, he'll find himself battling Chris Heisey for playing time in Cincinnati and will almost certainly be lifted regularly for a defensive replacement late in games he does start. If he is dealt, his value will take a huge hit as soon as he sheds outfield eligibility.

Potentially further hurting his future value would be a change in home ballparks. Few parks enhance home run hitting as much as Great American Ballpark, so any move likely will hurt his already modest power potential. Think Gaby Sanchez type value with a touch more average. In the outfield, that gets him on this list. As a first baseman, he'd just miss.

73: Matt Davidson/3B/Arizona Diamondbacks/3-26-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects to hit 20+ home runs in the majors in the near future.
Scouting notes: Davidson was one of two third base prospects drafted in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft by the Diamondbacks. He was drafted in the supplemental first round, after Bobby Borchering. He has since passed Borchering in the third base pecking order. In fact, Borchering will be making the move to the outfield in 2012. Davidson had to share third base duties, and is a below average defender at the position. He has shown enough to provide hope he can stick there, but he'll never receive accolades for his play there.

He strong batter with plenty of thunder in his stick. Just how much average he hits for will be contingent on how much progress he's able to make with reducing his strikeouts. Davidson isn't a free swinger, and he's shown the ability to walk at a decent rate in his young career. He finished last year on Mobile's roster in the Double-A Southern League championship series, and will return there to start this year.

He'll likely spend the entire season in the minors, but should Ryan Roberts turn into a pumpkin, it's possible Davidson could slug his way to the majors a la Paul Goldschmidt in 2011.

74: Addison Reed/RP/Chicago White Sox/12-27-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Gaudy strikeout rate as a top-flight reliever.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Reed saw his fantasy stock climb before even throwing a pitch this season. The White Sox dealt Sergio Santos to the Toronto Blue Jays, clearing the path for Reed to claim the closer role in the near future. Matt Thornton is expected to begin the year as the Pale Hose closer, but it could be Reed who closes (get it, closes) the year with the gig.

Until he's able to contribute in saves, owners in deep mixed leagues and AL-only formats can expect Reed to be a positive contributor to ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

October 2011: Reed was an equal opportunist in embarrassing hitters at four minor league stops before reaching the majors (where he hasn't stopped striking batters out). He throws a plus-plus fastball and a plus-plus slider. He also throws a change-up, but it isn't as consistent as his other two pitches. He started and closed games at San Diego State, but it appears the White Sox are content with him dominating in a late-inning role. Sergio Santos did a fantastic job closing games for the White Sox, so Reed may not pick up saves anytime soon, but he should still be a fantasy asset.

75: Luis Heredia/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-16-94/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Too small a sample size for a meaningful projection.
Scouting notes: If you are over the age of 16, think back to what you were doing at that age. My guess is that none of you were thinking about pitching in professional baseball. The fact Heredia pitched 30 innings in the U.S. as a 16-year-old (for most of those innings) is pretty astonishing. The stats won't jump off the page at readers, but he didn't embarrass himself against competition a couple years older than himself.

Heredia is a 6-foot-6, right-handed pitcher. He throws his fastball in the 92-93 mph range, and can pump it up to 96 mph. He backs it with a pair of offspeed pitches, a curveball and a change-up. Both show plus potential, but are a ways away from getting there. His ceiling is that of an ace, and Kevin Goldstein says it rivals that of fellow Pirates prospect arms Jameson Taillon and Gerrit Cole. Heredia is expected to move up a level this year, and play in the Short Season New York-Penn league for State College. Heredia may be the prospect furthest from reaching the majors, but his ceiling is too high to ignore.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 2:43am

Fantasy Spin: Anibal Sanchez or Matt Garza?

Today, we play the brand name game. According to Yahoo's most up-to-date preseason ranks, Anibal Sanchez is ranked as the No. 154 overall player in standard 5x5, mixed league roto formats. Matt Garza is ranked No. 103 overall. Is that gap really justified? At the outset, my gut says no.

First, let's look at the surface statistics. Here is how the fantasy numbers of Matt Garza and Anibal Sanchez compared in 2011, especially against the average qualified starting pitcher in 2011:



Player
2011 Rank
IP
Wins
ERA
WHIP
Strikeouts
K%


Matt Garza
147
198.0
10
3.32
1.26
197
23.5%


Anibal Sanchez
212
196.1
8
3.67
1.28
202
24.3%


Qual. MLB SP Average*
N/A
198.2
12.2
3.70
1.25
156
18.8%

Off the bat, a few things stand out. First, Garza was the better fantasy player, but not by enough to matter. Their ERAs and WHIPs are close enough that a few extra good or bad starts for either pitcher could have a drastic impact on who ended the season with better rate stats. Although elite pitching has become more clustered in recent years, a third of a run and .02 base runners differential in ERA and WHIP are relatively marginal.

More shocking, however, might be the average qualified major league starting pitcher numbers. Would you have seriously guessed that they produced those numbers, even in the second coming of the era of the pitcher? Essentially, the league average qualified starting pitcher, in terms of ERA and WHIP, was a little better than what it took to win a fantasy league with your pitching staff in 2009. That's down right crazy, if you ask me.

Of course, here at The Hardball Times, we preach looking beyond the numbers. Single season surface results, particularly ERA and WHIP, are generally not the best predictors of future performance. So let's look at the overall peripherals:



Player
K%
BB%
K/BB
SwStr%
F-Strike%
FIP
xFIP
SIERRA
eFIP
xWHIP


Matt Garza
23.5%
7.5%
3.1
11.2%
63.8%
3.32
3.19
3.31
3.13
1.20-1.22


Anibal Sanchez
24.3%
7.7%
3.2
10.9%
63.3%
3.35
3.25
3.29
3.10
1.19-1.21

From the perspective of peripherals, we find the two players near identical. Their strikeout and walk rates, in addition to their first pitch strike and whiff rates, are marginally divergent. All of SIERRA, FIP, xFIP and eFIP agree that both pitchers flashed legit ace-type talent last season, and their expected ERAs are essentially within .05 runs per nine innings of each other no matter which ERA estimator you use. Likewise, xWHIP thought both pitchers were near identical in talent at limiting baserunners in a vacuum last season.

This confirms, at least to some degree, the initial hypothesis: that a significant gap in their rankings/ADP is not justified on functional/substantive grounds—at least not based on 2011. A comparison of their career numbers, though, with Garza pitching in the harder league and division before 2011, would certainly give Garza the rankings edge, all else considered and nothing else relevant, heading into 2011. But consider a couple of other points.

First, compare the past two years of performance by the two pitchers. They are as eerily similar as their 2011 performances standing alone:



Player
IP
W
ERA
WHIP
FIP
K%
BB%


Garza Past 2
402.2
25
3.62
1.25
3.79
20.5%
7.4%


Sanchez Past 2
391.1
21
3.61
1.31
3.30
21.5%
8.0%

Second, a look at both pitchers' monthly strikeout rate and xFIP splits reveals that Sanchez was substantially more consistent in his month-to-month production:
April:
Sanchez: 23.4% K%, 3.34 xFIP
Garza: 30.5% K%, 2.09 xFIP

May:
Sanchez: 26.0% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 22.7% K%, 3.90 xFIP

June:
Sanchez: 25.4% K%, 2.73 xFIP
Garza: 16.5% K%, 3.71 xFIP

July:
Sanchez: 24.3% K%, 3.27 xFIP
Garza: 21.1% K%, 3.70 xFIP

August:
Sanchez: 19.7% K%, 3.75 xFIP
Garza: 26.1% K%, 2.98 xFIP

September:
Sanchez: 26.6% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 21.5% K%, 3.30 xFIP

These splits might be less of a concern in Roto leagues, where patience is king, rather than H2H formats, but the volatility raises some question as to where Garza's true talents in the National League lies. Is Garza the pitcher he was in July or August? April or May? June or September? Likely, it's somewhere in the middle, putting Sanchez and Garza on near equal footing in terms of process and talent last year and over the past two years. At the very least, Garza's volatility is enough of a question mark to make the prospective value of the two pitchers a closer question than their career numbers would otherwise indicate.

The bottom line is this. You should be happy to have either pitcher on your roster anchoring your staff. xFIP and SIERRA do not tell the whole story and are far from the be-all, end-all, but the consensus of the most popular ERA estimators (plus my own calculations) seem to indicate that both starters are capable and likely to repeat and outperform last year's surface stats.

Both have the potential to be equally or more valuable than starters like Yovani Gallardo, James Shields, C.J. Wilson and Daniel Hudson, all of whom rank substantially higher in Yahoo. The only real difference between them that I see is that one is going to cost you your ninth or 10 pick, assuming no one reaches given his hype, while the other is going a full five rounds later in 12-team mixed leagues. Garza has popped up in plenty of non-expert discussions that I have had in the offseason as a trendy starting pitcher and sleeper for 2012 (much in the same way as Zack Greinke). Why pay for that name brand, when you can have the equally functional "knock off" at a fraction of the price?

As always, lave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 2:07am

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Who’s really the top relief pitcher in LA?

Kenley Jansen or Javy Guerra the top dog in LA?

I think Kenley Jansen—even if he records zero saves all year—will be more valuable than Javy Guerra. (I also think that Jansen, assuming he stays healthy, will be more valuable than about half the closers in the league even if he gets only five saves. But, that's a whole other discussion.)

I don't think this is an unreasonable conclusion, considering how much value he will generate in strikeouts, ERA, and WHIP. Just imagine what he could do if he were able to unseat Guerra as the closer!

But without him owning the closer's role, many will ignore him. Which begs the question, is Jansen or Guerra the guy to own in LA?

While the knee-jerk reaction is always to go with the man who has the job its not that simple in this case. Fantasy owners seem to have recognized this, drafting Jansen just four spots behind of Guerra in ESPN drafts (ADP 215.4 to 219.7).

While I think the small difference in ADP has more to do with owners hoping Jansen seizes the role, he really doesn't need the closer role to be worth the pick. All he has to do is pitch like Kenley Jansen and keep striking batters out.

It goes like this:

Regressing both Jansen and Guerra's plate discipline characteristics and batted ball profiles, Jansen—not surprisingly—grades out as the far superior pitcher.

Actually, his numbers point to something truly remarkable.

I've got his final line at a 1.97 ERA and 1.02 WHIP, with a 15.01 strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and 4.11 walks per nine innings (BB/9)—meaning he could very well be the next incarnation of Craig Kimbrel, Carlos Marmol circa 2010, or Brad Lidge c. 2004, albeit without the saves. Though he doesn't have a clear pathway to the closer's role, 100-strikeout setup men are a very underrated commodity in fantasy. Jansen's overall line could be worth more than many of this year's closers—even if he finishes the season with only a handful of saves.

Over 60 IP, I've got his line being worth about 0.61 points above the average reliever. Ratchet his line up to 12 saves and all of a sudden he's worth a full point above the league average in the standings. That's in comparison to guys like Huston Street (Steamer's line comes in at 0.36 points) and Jose Valverde (-1.18 points by Steamer's line) who have a full season of saves under their belt.

On the other hand, Guerra posts a more modest 3.48 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, to go along with a 7.2 K/9 and 3.7 BB/9—not far from his 2011 rates of 7.33 K/9 and 3.47 BB/9. Last year's sparkling 2.31 ERA will likely fade, however—and with it comes the possibility of a change at closer (or so Jansen owners hope). Still, at 35 saves on the year over 65 IP, and he still comes in below average (-1.02 points).

And while we're talking about Jansen, I think it's worth pointing out that his control is far better than he is given credit for. Because of his high walk rates (4.36 BB/9 in 2011), he has undeservedly earned the reputation of being wild. But, that statistic is very misleading.

In actuality, he had very good control last season, posting a 53.2 percent zone rate and 59.2 percent on first strikes. The zone percentage, in particular, is very impressive for a reliever. While you wouldn't expect a pitcher with that kind of control to walk so many batters, he does so because he generates so many swings and misses. So, instead of batters ending the at-bat by putting the ball in play (where there is no chance of a walk), those extra swings and misses keep more at-bats alive, resulting in inflated walk totals.

Bumping his O- and Z-Contact ratings up a notch (to .713 O-Contact and .858 Z-Contact—Guerra's numbers), he all of a sudden finds himself walking 3.29 batters per nine. Going one step further, if batters chased him out of the zone at a reasonable rate (Jansen had a 25.4 O-Swing last season), he would find himself at 2.7 BB/9.

To sum up that tangent, please don't fool yourself into thinking that Jansen is your typical high-strikeout, poor-control reliever. He's much, much more than that!

And getting back to the main point: Be sure to take advantage of his underrated value. Jansen is just one of a handful of hurlers who doesn't get credit for the value he contributes to a fantasy team. Though he's the No. 2 man in LA, don't discount him too much on draft day. You'll regret it!

What batting in a Boston (not San Diego) uniform does for your value

Lineup strength is one of the more underrated parts of a player's fantasy value. A few things that many fantasy players do wrong is to ignore, or significantly underrate, the effect that a batter's teammates have on his value.

Now, let's not get carried away on that last statement. Everyone in fantasy recognizes that batting in the Yankees lineup is better than batting for the Astros. However, you get the feeling that only the keenest of owners know the true value of this switch.

Let's take Jacoby Ellsbury for example. Out of the leadoff spot in Boston, he turned in one of the finest seasons of 2012—119 runs, 32 home runs, 105 RBI, 39 stolen bases, and a .321 average.

Absolutely extraordinary!

His regressed numbers state that he was a little unlucky in runs scored, but made up for it with slightly inflated RBI totals. That regressed line is a stunning 126 runs scored and 92 RBI. Also outstanding!

Now, for the kicker—throw him in San Diego. Keep his exact same profile intact (732 plate appearances, 32 home runs, 39 stolen bases, .321/.376/.552), but change the team around him.

How does he do?

...very well, but the lineup around him has certainly taken its toll. He cedes 18 runs and 12 RBI to finish at 108 and 80. An excellent player, no doubt, but not the same guy by any means. In fact, he cedes a full 1.7 points in the standings (similar to the difference in value between Evan Longoria and Michael Young, by many pre-draft estimates).

So, the obvious (but now quantified!) moral of the story: Think carefully about lineup strength before you draft anyone. Yes, the Boston to San Diego exchange is extreme—and I'm sure you already take lineup strength into account—but don't forget about those five or six runs and RBI that can come from moving from, say, Toronto to Washington. Those little bits of value really add up to a lot and can make you a nightmare to play against. Add a half a point here and a quarter of point there and you'll find yourself way ahead of the pack in September.

Posted by Mike Silver at 5:44am

Spring flings

Anyone who thinks spring training stats are wholeheartedly dumb, I’d like to introduce you to Michael Morse. After the 29-year-old blasted 15 homers in less than half a season in 2010, he continued his torrid pace the subsequent spring, painting himself as a worthy sleeper and affirming (perhaps wrongly) his previous season’s performance. And what an affirmation it was. He slugged nine homers in 66 at-bats, and followed said spring up with 31 dingers and a .300 average. Not bad, Morse.

Of course, that’s an incredibly small sample of meaningful spring stats: one single player. I could find hundreds of breakouts, slumps, tumbles and rises that can be correlated to superb springs. And on the contrary, I can find hundreds more that meant absolutely nothing.

You need to know what to be looking for, of course, and I have my eyes on a handful of springs that mean something to me. I thought of the idea and threw together a makeshift list on my twitter (@fishfle) which I will expand upon below.

Whether it’s an uncharacteristic home run rate, a pathetic showing at the plate, or a leash that was thinned, there are a handful of reasons the following “bad” spring trainings mean something to me. Likewise, there are a lot of “good” spring training showings that are worthwhile of consideration and dissection, whether it’s because they set a player up for a promotion, sealed him a job, or prove to me that an injury is far in the rear view mirror. Let’s jump in.

Bad, yet meaningful, springs

Tyler Pastornicky’s leash just got shortened
Pastornicky was entrusted with the starting shortstop gig on the Braves this offseason despite zero major league at-bats, a testament to both their thrift and his excellent minor league numbers. Lo and behold, though, Pastornicky allowed low-minors straggler Andrelton Simmons, a 22 year old speedster who still hasn’t touched Double-A, to enter the picture and serve, seemingly, as a check for Pastornicky. And he deserves one after a 5-for-40 showing (equating to a .125 batting average) with one single walk and only one stolen base (his calling card). I’d be worried if I were Tyler Pastornicky.

Devin Mesoraco didn’t buy himself any at-bats
Mesoraco enters 2012 in an undefined role, seemingly stuck behind Ryan Hanigan in Cincinnati, but looking at 300+ at-bats per some projections. I’d take the under—perhaps well under—after an unimpressive cup of coffee in the majors last year and an equally anemic spring. Given that he plays for Dusty Baker, hater of all that is young, and that he hit .180 in his 53 late-season at-bats and .136 in his 22 at-bat cameo this spring, I wouldn’t touch him in fantasy leagues this year.

Justin Morneau looks overmatched
There was some talk this offseason and spring—from Twins camp—that Justin Morneau may be at the end of the road in his career, which was/is badly derailed by concussions and other injuries. He’s followed up his weakest showing in the majors, a .227/.285/.333 triple-slash last year, with an equally underwhelming (if you even want to call it that) spring training, where he’s garnered only three hits in 30 at-bats, good for a .100 average. That’s not going to cut it.

Roy Halladay’s home-run rate is uncharacteristically high
His velocity is down, and in his own words, “"I'm 34 and (with) 2,500 innings, it does take a while to get going.” Chalk this up to my paranoia if you will, but it’s not just the 6+ ERA that has me scared. Hell, you can throw that number out for all I care. Doc has given up five homers in a mere 13+ innings. For illustration’s sake, he gave up 10 round-trippers last year in 233+ innings. His fastball had a negative pitch value last year for the first time since 2003, and if his velocity diminishes on said pitch just one mile per hour, the biting 91 mile per hour cutter will be the same speed as his heater, which has been historically in the 92 range; thus, the cutter would likely be far less effective. I’d be worried enough to pass on him for another ace early—there’s too much money tied up in a Halladay investment to carry any doubt. I’ll take the Cy Young winner from last year, please.

Good springs that mean a lick

Jeff Samardzija earned himself a rotation spot
Always possessive of a nasty slider, Samardzija’s main hindrance was his subpar control. His career BB/9 mark of 5.30 just wasn’t going to cut it as a starting pitcher, but by all accounts, the Cubs are going to give him a shot based off his advances last year and his gleaming spring training. His 1.61 K/BB rate in 2011 was not impressive by any means, but was a far cry from his previous 0.45 mark. Couple that with his 9:0 strikeout to walk ratio this spring in 10 six-hit innings, and the suits in the Cubs' front office are believers. Thus, I am too.

Juan Nicasio proved the gruesome neck injury to be behind him
Nicasio suffered an injury that could’ve well killed or paralyzed him last August. So what is he doing on this list? Rocking. His 9:2 strike to walk ratio in 12 innings is fairly indicative of his true skill level, and his Double-A numbers should provide all the context you need: a 10.01 K/9 ratio supported by a mere 1.59 walks per nine innings. The kid’s got talent and has sealed his rotation spot with a solid spring showing. Cheers to that.

Zack Cozart is as healthy as can be
A hyperextended left elbow ended Cozart’s September run, where he turned heads with a couple of long balls and a .324/.324/.486 triple-slash in just 11 games. All is well in Cincinnati camp, though, as Cozart went 12-for-29 in his springtime games. A clean bill of health, a hot bat, and a job sealed, all of which is supported by solid minor league numbers. Sounds like a 26-year-old breakout to me.

Starling Marte may have set himself up for a mid-season promotion
So the kid can play. One would assume that Marte is one of the central figures in the Pirates plan to compete in the next several years after an incredibly impressive showing in Double-A. He boasted speed (24 stolen bases), power (12 home runs), average (.332), leaving only plate discipline to be desired (a 3.8 percent walk rate). Marte backed up his power-speed-average showing last year with a .520 average, three homers, and two steals in just 25 at-bats. For fun, those extrapolate to 72 homers and 48 steals over 600 at-bats, and while I’m obviously kidding about such potential, he can fit into the Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Carlos Gonzalez, and Andrew McCutchen category of triple-threat outfielders one day; that is, as soon as he gets the opportunity. Alex Presley, Jose Tabata, and the aforementioned McCutchen are all occupying spaces in the Pittsburgh outfield and Nate McLouth is hoping for a bounce-back as a fourth outfielder. If Marte mashes in Triple-A, he could force the Pirates’ hands in giving him at-bats. If Tabata or Presley stumble big time, then watch out.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:15am

Fantasy focus: Danny Duffy

Harry Pavlidis (of the Dispatch section) and I have been going back and forth on various young starting pitchers we expect to break out in real life and fantasy this year. Using advanced metrics, minor league data and PITCHf/x, we plan to give an encompassing look at what you can expect from these players in 2012.

Harry kicked things off with a PITCHf/x look at Danny Duffy. Now it is my turn to put the fantasy spin on Duffy. In the next article in this series, I will look at Harry's first breakout player—fantasy zombie Brian Matusz.

I am an unashamed Danny Duffy fan. Last year, I pegged Duffy as a post-All Star starting pitcher break breakout candidate for the American League (the National League break out pitcher that I identified was Javier Vazquez).

The reason I liked Duffy so much last year was his monster pedigree and strong minor league track record. As a "big boy" lefty, Duffy's put up a cumulative 2.65 ERA with 407 strikeouts to only 110 walks (a superior 3.7:1 rate). Duffy showed electric strikeout stuff with above average control that stayed the same or improved with every level jump of his career (well, at least until he reached the majors).

By the time Duffy reached Triple-A last year, he was striking out 28 percent of batters faced while walking fewer than six percent in the hitter-friendly PCL league. Duffy throws a four-seam fastball that consistently, and comfortably, sits in the mid-90s, and he comes armed with a deeper-than-most five pitch arsenal (albeit, only a couple are "plus pitches" at this point). That gives him a lot of weapons to work from not only mechanically, but psychologically.

Put that all together, and you have monster major league potential. From a fantasy perspective at least, velocity plus strikeouts plus control plus weapons plus recent PCL success equals huge sleeper potential. Remember that Mat Latos guy? Or Jordan Zimmermann. Or Brandon Beachy (who had a much shorter record of success heading into 2011)? Okay, so those guys are not lefties, which works to Duffy's advantage, but you get the point.

A look at Duffy's first half major league numbers showed that he had caught some bad breaks, and that he was stringing together a series of refined starts that brimmed with the type of potential he showed in the minors. Of course, history is history, and Duffy did not end up breaking out as I projected. And his second half numbers (6.41 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9) ended up worse than his first half numbers (52 IP, 4.85 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9). Does this mean I was just way off base?

Well first off, 105 innings of your first taste of major league play is nothing to get too down about. When a prospect first reaches the major league level, I look more at the basics, the underlying stuff, before I look at the results. Provided there is some translation of the tools and talent flashed in the minors, you could put up a 10.00 ERA over 100-plus innings in your rookie season and I would still love you. I remind you again of Jordan Zimmermann and Mat Latos.

There was not a whole lot of minor league to major league translation, with a sub-average 7.7 percent induced whiff rate (8.6 percent major league average) and 51.9 percent first pitch strike rate (59.4 percent major league average), but Duffy showed brilliance at times. His five starts heading into the All-Star break last year were a good example of this. Overall, Duffy looked a little raw and overmatched at the major league average, but he still looked pretty strong for a rookie—which is encouraging.

Part of the reason I am discounting Duffy's overall season performance and relatively lackluster peripherals is fatigue. Duffy's career high in total innings pitched was 126.2 innings, back in 2009. Duffy "retired" for a few months in 2010, and ended up pitching only 62.1 innings that season. Last season saw Duffy ultimately reach 157.1 innings. That's almost 100 innings over his previous season load.

Evidence of fatigue appeared after the All-Star break. As Harry noted in his article on Duffy, "Duffy's fastball speed declined in late July, recovering briefly before declining steadily through his last start." Further, as Harry notes, "Duffy's highest pitch count came in that final start on Sept. 6, throwing 119 after not crossing 105 in his other starts."

Now that's not to highlight any substantial injury risk concerns. A 100-inning jump is hefty, but 157 innings is not to the level of abuse for a guy, even one who retired for part of a season, who has been a starter his entire minor league career. Furthermore, given Duffy's healthy mix of pitches and power fastball, his breaking ball usage, despite his strikeout rate, isn't skewed like Madison Bumgardner's or Bud Norris'. To the contrary, this fatigue highlights the fact that Duffy didn't reach his potential because he was not able to build up the necessary durability to break out in the second half of last year. Six months of offseason rest should get him ready to go for the beginning of the season with plenty of that potential still brimming.

So what to make of Harry's conclusions about Duffy's stuff still needing refining and Duffy needing to build up durability in 2012 (making Duffy more likely a 2013 breakout candidate)? Harry observes the following:

Duffy's fastball is above average in whiff rate, pop-up rate and flyball rate compared to other fastballs. His change-up is mostly average but his curveball doesn't miss too many bats but yields plenty of ground balls. At least in 2011, that is. He's yet to develop a swing-and-miss secondary pitch, and that's going to hold him back. You can't pitch on fastballs alone in a big league rotation. Or not for long.

If he's going to rely on his impressive power, he would benefit in the long run by further developing his two-seamer, which was ineffective in yielding worm killers in its limited use. With his high arm slot, a true sinker isn't likely to emerge. He may get more ground balls out of a cut fastball if he were to develop one.

The long and short—Harry is concerned about Duffy developing and refining a quality breaking pitch to make his laser beam four-seamer more effective. The curveball is not cutting it—at least not yet—though it is a groundball machine. Does this mean Duffy is a mere wait and see project?

Well, as Lucas Apostoleris points out in the comments, Duffy is also working in a cutter to his arsenal. Depending on how that pitch, plus the further development of his curveball, pans out in 2012, Duffy could start showing strong results this season. He is a guy to keep an eye on in April.

I would not recommend drafting him in shallow leagues, or for more than $1 at this point (though it will be interesting to see what Duffy goes for in AL Tout Wars this weekend), but people in keeper leagues need to particularly be paying attention to what Duffy does early on. If he starts showing more of what I discussed during the 2011 All-Star break, I would recommend taking an early flier on him to prevent him from landing in the hands of an opponent. But I would not recommend consistently starting him until he shows the world that he's put it all together and developed in the ways that Harry identified in his article.

In hindsight, I think labeling Duffy as my breakout player for 2012 might have been a little premature. After all, Oliver's major league equivalency forecast is surprisingly bearish, projecting a mere 4.84 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 for Duffy in 2015 based on historical performance to date. He's certainly got the potential I love, but durability questions and a developing breaking pitch are short term wild cards. The addition of a cutter, if effective, will certainly make things interesting for the Royals' current fifth starter in 2012, however. A "this year" breakout is not out of the cards, though again, as Harry notes, 2013 might be the better bet.

Duffy has "number two" starting pitcher projectability with some upside to spare depending on how his groundball-inducing curve develops. A few years ago, guys like Bud Norris, Jorge De La Rosa and Scott Baker were king. If you could cobble together a roster of underrated guys with high mid-three ERA potential, high 1.2s WHIP production and good strikeout rates, you were set. But with everyone in the league seemingly posting a 4.00 ERA and 1.30 WHIP these days, Felipe Paulino-like guys have become spot starters at best.

What separates Duffy is a good blend of strikeout potential and historical control over his mix of pitches. Unlike a cobbled-together roster of flawed pitchers with elite discreet category production, Duffy projects to do some of it all. Average groundballs, lots of whiffs, and minimal batters on base. Control is going to be the make-or-break of Duffy's fantasy relevance outside the development of his secondary pitches. If Duffy commands the zone, he's going to succeed. If he is too wild, his upside is going to be Bud Norris, and as much as I love Bud, that's not going to make Duffy too relevant an everyday starting pitcher in most mixed formats.

Thus, for the forgoing reasons, I humbly request you add Danny Duffy to your watch list immediately.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 1:26am

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Cramming the smart way

The Boy Scouts’ motto is to always be prepared, but we’re not all boy scouts. If you’re one of the many out there who has a draft in a few days but who hasn’t done much in the way of preparation, this article is for you. I’m not going to provide you with a crash course in draft prep but rather some advice on how to spend your limited preparation time most wisely.

I consider myself a good test taker, and because I got that reputation, I was often sought for advice in regard to taking the SAT. Many of those who asked me about it hadn’t really prepared and began freaking out as the test crept up. The first piece of advice I always gave people in that situation is to focus on information and knowledge that you can guarantee you will use. This means focusing on breadth of knowledge instead of depth, and focusing on strategy and familiarizing yourself with scoring systems and such as opposed to trying to cram as much content into your head as possible.

The first instinct many of the frantic students had was to begin studying vocabulary lists, as that was a major piece of many of the SAT review books. Similarly, a frantic fantasy leaguer may be tempted to start reading as many articles as possible, gobbling up any list of “sleepers” his or her Google search pings back. This is exactly the wrong approach. Instead, bring your attention to higher-level issues.

Understand your league scoring and settings
On the SAT, one of the most important things people needed to learn was the math of guessing—when it was to your advantage to do so. In fantasy baseball, one of the first things to acquaint yourself with is your league settings. If you’re not in a traditional 5x5 league, here is your first opportunity to start identifying value. Sometimes, there is categorical imbalance in the settings chosen.

Does your league scoring disproportionately value rate stats? Do you have a very low innings limit? Do you use on-base percentage instead of batting average? Two catchers? These are all opportunities to identify players with enhanced value in your particular league.

Focus on grouping players into tiers
Instead of trying to read in-depth on every player, take a look at ADPs or projected draft prices and try to identify patterns within positions. For example, here are a few patterns I’ve noticed this year. First basemen aren’t as plentiful as often thought, and second base is deeper than people think. Shortstop is very thin, while thid base is top-heavy, but not deep.

Within these positions you will also find additional patterns. Take shortstop, for example. You have a big three, then a handful of fairly similar decent options, and then not much to be excited about, minus a few interesting gambles.

A general rule of thumb by which one can often abide is to avoid being the drafter who breaks the barrier between tiers. If there are five players whose auction value all project to be within four dollars, more often than not, you will get a better bargain buying the second-to-last player in that group than buying the first player in that group. Jeff Gross recently published a series of articles that focuses on breaking players into tiers at each position.

Devise a general strategy
It’s important to approach a draft with a plan. Some of the overall principles guiding your strategy will likely come from any insight you glean from analyzing your league setup. Other principles will be guided by insights derived from taking your bird’s-eye approach to the player pool. Maybe you want to fill your middle infield early. Maybe you don’t like the back-end closer options. Thinking strategically can help force you to turn your opinions into actionable knowledge.

Make cheat sheets for steals and saves
Steals and saves are the two single categories in most limited supply. Make sure you have a list of each team’s projected closer as well as the next-in-lines for the most tenuous situations. Compile a list of players likely to steal 20 or bases. If it gets late in the draft and you find yourself behind in these categories, you should be able to find a cheap player to fill this need. Plus, given the thin supply of these categories, you want to track as they come off the board.

Set some benchmarks
If your league is a repeat league, it should be synched to the previous years’ standings. Look at what it took to win each category the previous season and get a feel for what statistical totals are required to compete in each category.

Understand the type of player you are
Are you quick to wire? Do you have an itchy drop finger? If you don’t think you can’t be the first to act on closer news, you might want to draft more or better closers. If you don’t have a lot of patience, you may not want to draft unproven younger players. Think about how to assemble a team that matches your personality. This is also a way to differentiate similarly priced players on grounds not explicitly tied to having intimate knowledge of their skill sets, spring performance, etc.

Plan to make use of the draft clock
While skill is one side of the production equation, opportunity is the other. If you are in a draft, start anticipating who the highest-ranked available players will be when it’s your turn. Then you can do some quick cramming. Are there injury issues? Is there a plan to shuffle their prior batting order position? Will playing time be an issue?

If you haven’t had a chance to do much research in advance, this is one way to narrow the player pool to those on whom you will likely have to actually make a decision. Many players are not viable options for your team, either because of need or because of what other drafters do. If you spend your cram time reading deeply on a player, it goes for zilch if you wind up never having to make a decision on that particular player.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:12am

Razzball expert league roster analysis

Jonathan Halket is participating in an expert league run by Razzball this year that features well-known fantasy analysts from around the web such as Scott Pianowski, Andy Behrens, and Eric Mack. Jonathan could not be present for the first hour of the draft, so he had me (Jeff) proxy draft the first 10 players for him. Jonathan returned just in time to draft players 11 and 12 and finish out the rest of the draft for himself.

Due to a miscommunication on my part, Jonathan and I both ended up writing the analysis below. Rather than have that all go to waste, we figured the readers might be interested in some insight into the draft day mind of two analysts. Perhaps we're just being presumptuous.

First, the league dynamics. This is a draft (not auction) league with 12 teams, standard 5x5 scoring, and standard rosters save for the fact that each team needs only one catcher; this means five outfielders, corner and middle infielders, etc. The league is hosted on ESPN.

Here is the roster of players drafted. Each line represents a round, and the number to the left of the player's name is his overall pick number. For example, Adrian Gonzalez was the 11th player picked overall.

11 Adrian Gonzalez, Bos 1B
14 Ian Kinsler, Tex 2B
35 Matt Holliday, StL OF
38 Michael Bourn, Atl OF
59 Brian McCann, Atl C
62 Asdrubal Cabrera, Cle SS
83 Michael Young, Tex 1B
86 Yu Darvish, Tex SP
107 Cameron Maybin, SD OF
110 Matt Garza, ChC SP
131 Josh Johnson, Mia SP
134 Cory Luebke, SD SP
155 Lucas Duda, NYM 1B
158 Frank Francisco, NYM RP
179 Matt Thornton, CWS RP
182 Chris Sale, CWS RP
203 Ryan Howard, Phi 1B
206 Daniel Murphy, NYM 2B
227 John Mayberry Jr., Phi OF
230 Jonathon Niese, NYM SP
251 Carlos Pena, TB 1B
254 Ben Revere, Min OF
275 David Robertson, NYY RP
278 Ryan Doumit, Min C
299 Chris Heisey, Cin OF

Jeffrey's analysis

Pick No. 1: Adrian Gonzalez
Proxy drafting for someone is always hard, especially when you have the potential for fundamentally different drafting philosophies. Thankfully, draft over auction simplifies the complications of stars and scrubs (how I live and die) versus the merits of patient value hunting and the risk of leaving money on the table. (“The soup that got away,” for you Family Guy fans out there).

Still, even in a draft format, you have to ask yourself, and you have to ask it early on, whether you are going to pick the best player possible or strategize based on positional scarcity. This means making the choice in round one between drafting Ryan Braun (more raw value) over Troy Tulowitzki (lower absolute value, but high positional scarcity value). Particularly at a position like shortstop, where there are only a few elite options, even if those options are less elite in comparison to other players on the board, the choice sets up the rest of your draft.

Drafting Tulo early makes sense because he and Paul Goldschmidt in tandem are arguably a lot more valuable than Joey Votto and Derek Jeter. But if you draft Tulo in the first round and change your strategy 180 degrees a few rounds later, you might find your team loaded with underwhelming talent and a lack of value maximization.

Keeping this in mind, drafting 11th complicates things greatly. The earlier you draft, the more of a “choice” of which strategy to pursue you get—the best guy on the table or positional scarcity. It is no secret that, at least among the most elite players in fantasy, there is a noticeable dropoff between picks 1-4, picks 5-9, and the rest of the field. Few players have the potential to do what guys like Matt Kemp and Miguel Cabrera can do, and even fewer can do it with positional scarcity on their side.

When Gonzalez fell to me at 11, I felt it would be a disservice to Jonathan’s team not to take the best overall player on the board, even though he plays at the deepest position in (fantasy) baseball. I had two of the next four picks, and I seriously thought about drafting Ian Kinsler and either Hanley Ramirez or Evan Longoria and going the positional scarcity route, but I am a firm believer that Gonzalez was the last true “top-eight” guy on the board and that his fantasy value over either Kinsler or Longoria was worth sacrificing the opportunity to fill hard-to-fill positions with lesser elite players.

THT's player forecasting engine, Oliver, which can be accessed by subscription here, projects only 10 hitters it expects to be worth more than $30 by the end of the 2012 season using a 65/35 allocative budget split between hitters and pitchers: Kemp, Albert Pujols, Votto, Cabrera, Justin Upton, Braun, Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Carlos Gonzalez and Giancarlo "Don't Call Me Mike" Stanton.

Gonzalez, being the best and safest pick on the board, just seemed to make the most sense, especially if you believe in a rebound in A-Gone’s home run output in 2012. Besides, it’s not like Jonathan wouldn’t be able to trade Gonzalez away at “market value” if he did not like my decision (which you cannot per se claim about a guy like Evan Longoria, who is more polarizing).

Pick No. 2: Ian Kinsler
In the world of fantasy baseball, it is absolutely no secret that I am the “expert” with the biggest mancrush on Ian Kinsler. I think he is more valuable than Cano (equally valuable if/when injured, in tandem with the right replacement player), and I own Kinsler in essentially every league I am in.

Based on my analysis, independent of position, Kinsler is more or less a lock to end up as a top 15-25 overall fantasy hitter this year given his expected batting average rebound. With positional eligibility on his side, Kinsler was a no-brainer choice. Considering Dustin Pedroia was still on the board before I nabbed Gonzalez, I had little fear, with two picks out of four, that I would not get Kinsler with my second pick.

Pick No. 3: Matt Holliday
Holliday’s down year was still pretty valuable. Over a career-low 124 games, some lost due to an appendectomy that I think skewed his early-season performance, Holliday still managed a robust .296 batting average with 22 home runs and a couple of stolen bases. Now seemingly entrenched as the Cardinals No. 3 hitter, there's no reason to think Holliday can't go .300/25/5/100/100 with upside to spare.

That’s elite overall production, and given the fact that a minimum of 60 outfielders get drafted in 12-team, five-outfielder leagues, he arguably fills out positional scarcity with somewhat bankable four-plus category production. Holliday was another no-brainer choice that I was shocked fell past pick No. 30, especially considering I just missed out on Adrian Beltre.

Pick No. 4: Michael Bourn
I am not the world’s biggest fan of Bourn, but I am seemingly ending up with him on most of the teams this year. I have historically undervalued elite speedsters with good batting averages, so 2012 just seems like the year to make the right change.

The two fantasy categories I always seem to do the worst in are runs scored and stolen bases, and I did not want to short Jonathan on either. Accordingly, I drafted the best all-around speedster left on the board (my No. 18 overall outfielder, and Oliver’s No. 13 overall outfielder).

Pick No. 5: Brian McCann
I wanted Mike Napoli, especially because this is a one-catcher league, but I narrowly missed out. Interestingly, Carlos Santana was drafted before Napoli. In my fantasy experience, getting an elite catcher like McCann, one who bats out of the upper middle of the lineup, this late is rare, and I did not calculate him to last much longer (Buster Posey barely lasted another round.) A .275 average and 25 homers with 160-plus runs plus RBI potential out of the catcher slot seemed too promising to let slip by.

Pick No. 6:: Asdrubal Cabrera
Having passed on Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes, and never having a shot at Tulo, I decided to wait a bit to grab a useful shortstop. I was a little worried when Starlin Castro and Elvis Andrus went off the board, but Jimmy Rollins, J.J. Hardy, Dee Gordon and Cabrera were still around.

Of the bunch, I like Cabrera the most as a guy who does a little bit of everything, and since I already had my “all speed” guy in Bourn, I did not need a Gordon to help fill a hole early on. Cabrera offers .280/15/15 production, and I got him around market value. Diversification of production is an underrated fantasy asset for players. Consider this a risk-averse pick at a scarce position that would be hard to fill if I took a risk for Jonathan and missed.

Pick No. 7: Michael Young
I hate Michael Young. He’s the kind of guy who is always productive, but I can never predict why. One year he’ll have an elite batting average. In another, he’ll hit 20-plus home runs. In another, he’ll steal a ton of bases. In another, he’ll rack up huge RBI totals. Young makes planning your team a headache, and his biggest tool is being in a stacked lineup with solid batting average skills—the least bankable type of production in fantasy.

Young offers 15-home run upside, the potential for double-digit steals, the chance at 200 runs-plus-RBI, and he should hit for an above-average batting average at the very least. Having struck out on any truly legitimate third baseman, Young just seemed like the best choice.

Only Aramis Ramirez and Young were left on the board, and after them, it was a huge dropoff in terms of what you could expect from your hot corner plug. That’s why I acted when I did, and I chose Young’s surrounding lineup over Ramirez’s inconsistent and injury-riddled 25-home run and above-average batting average ceiling.

Pick No. 8: Yu Darvish
Jonathan’s only proclamation to me was to fill out hitting and not draft pitching too early. Otherwise, he (foolishly?) trusted me to make those critical first-hour-of-the-draft decisions for him. I begrudgingly and obediently watched guys like Madison Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw fly by at arguably sub-market points in the draft, but when our eighth-round pick came around, I couldn’t let the only other pitcher I comfortably expected to be worth over $20 in 2012 fly off the board.

That’s why I took Darvish, as I have in so many other leagues, confidently buying into Oliver’s major league equivalencies for his Japan numbers that make the first few years of Hideo Nomo’s career look like Dice-K's past three. Beyond the “will he translate” question, there might be some concern about Darvish’s durability in the Texas summer heat, but there’s no reason you can’t ride him out through an elite first half and flip him for someone else in July.

Pick No. 9: Cameron Maybin
With a minimum of 60 outfielders to get drafted (do not forget positional flexibility and the utility role), the outfield position quickly turns scarce in deep-league drafts. I had two solid guys in Holliday and Bourn, but players who were likely to be productive without hurting you in at least one category were starting to fly off the board. When I saw Maybin fall to me, I was pretty satisfied.

Petco is a better park for Maybin’s power stroke than the old Marlins stadium was, and he’s still young enough to grow out to 15-plus bombs in 2012. The Padres’ offense is not fierce enough to allow Maybin owners to legitimately bank over 150 runs-plus-RBI production, but in tandem with 40-plus stolen base production, Maybin looks like a poor man’s B.J. Upton or what people are expecting from Desmond Jennings in 2012—at a fraction of the price.

Maybe I bit a round too early in drafting Maybin, but it was worth avoiding the risk he would have been off the board some 20 picks later.

Pick No. 10: Matt Garza
Having filled out a good chunk of Jonathan’s hitting, I decided to turn to pitching to get another quality arm to anchor his staff with minimal risk. I debated taking either Anibal Sanchez, Cory Luebke or Max Scherzer—all of whom I like more than Garza—but I made the calculated decision that at least two of Sanchez, Luebke and Scherzer would be available by the time I got to pick next. With Ian Kennedy freshly off the board, Garza just seemed like the next-best starting pitcher option who likely wouldn’t be there 20 picks later.

For what it’s worth, per my expected WHIP calculator calculations, Sanchez and Garza are very, very close players in terms of talent shown last season and expectations for 2012. Per those calculations, Sanchez should have produced a defense- and luck-independent ERA of 3.10 with a WHIP between 1.187 and 1.212. Garza, meanwhile, clocked in similarly with an expected ERA of 3.13 and expected WHIP (xWHIP) range of 1.196 to 1.221. But that, of course, assumes Garza is the higher strikeout pitcher than he was in the second half of last season.

A look at Sanchez’s monthly strikeout rate (K%) and xFIP compared to Garza reveals just why, in a vacuum, I would prefer Sanchez:

April
Sanchez: 23.4% K%, 3.34 xFIP
Garza: 30.5% K%, 2.09 xFIP

May
Sanchez: 26.0% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 22.7% K%, 3.90 xFIP

June
Sanchez: 25.4% K%, 2.73 xFIP
Garza: 16.5% K%, 3.71 xFIP

July
Sanchez: 24.3% K%, 3.27 xFIP
Garza: 21.1% K%, 3.70 xFIP

Aug:
Sanchez: 19.7% K%, 3.75 xFIP
Garza: 26.1% K%, 2.98 xFIP

September
Sanchez: 26.6% K%, 3.24 xFIP
Garza: 21.5% K%, 3.30 xFIP

Of course we were not drafting in a vacuum, so Garza, whom I have come to like more and more in the offseason, just seemed like the better “value” pick here.

Jonathan's analysis

It was hard for me to enter the draft on the fly and get a quick sense of what was left on the board. It was even harder when you factor in that I was unfamiliar with ESPN's draft interface. At 90 seconds per pick, things were coming fast.

Fortunately, Jeff's expert drafting had left me in a pretty good position. I didn't feel like we had any major holes that needed swift attention. Since this league is a daily league, I felt comfortable going for high-upside starting pitchers who would often have particularly tasty match-ups. The plan was to go for a few starters with excellent skills who, if healthy, I would feel good about starting on a regular basis; then I could patch in good match-ups on a week-by-week basis.

Josh Johnson's an obvious risk/reward guy. If he's healthy, he should be great. In a weekly league where it is harder to play the waiver wire for starters, his injury risk discount would be higher. Here I felt that an 11th-round pick was good value.

Likewise, I feel like a reasonable "floor" for Cory Luebke is that he becomes a great match-up starter—all those Petco starts and any against week offenses. I'm high on skills, though, so I think he could become a solid regular in my rotation.

After the 12th round, I felt like I need to address two concerns pronto: power and saves. So in the next five rounds I got Lucas Duda, Frank Francisco, Matt Thornton, Chris Sale (obviously not a reliever anymore) and Ryan Howard. With five outfield spots, a utility spot and a corner infield spot, Duda's position flexibility allowed me to take a risk on Howard.

After taking Daniel Murphy for my middle-infield spot, and given that Jeff had picked up Young for third base, I knew we could sacrifice some batting average. So by the late rounds, I was looking for players who had good platoon splits (attractive since this is a daily league) and could give me some counting numbers. I went for Carlos Pena, John Mayberry Jr. and, with my last pick, Chris Heisey.

In a daily league, there's no reason to have an idle catching spot if you can fill it with something productive. So I grabbed Ryan Doumit to play there when McCann gets days off. I also think there's a chance Doumit ends up having value in a trade as a starting catcher in his own right. I threw in Ben Revere as a speed guy who may be a useful chip for trading later.

To round out my pitching staff, I grabbed Jonathon Niese and David Robertson. Niese has the skills to put together a great season with decent strikeout potential. Robertson has all the qualities I want in a middle reliever: high strikeout rates, solid ratios and an outside chance at a few saves during the season. On days where I'm not starting a full roster, he'll definitely be in my lineup.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:11am

Monday, March 19, 2012

Fantasy, trending now

All in on de Aza

His draft ranking sure hasn’t shown it, but come September, Alejandro de Aza might just be one of the biggest draft day steals of 2012.

Skepticism from drafters, to this point, has circled around his light power totals and lack of opportunity. While his power numbers do leave a little to be desired, the opportunity part seems to have been solved. He’s projected to start the season as the White Sox’ leadoff hitter—a slot that should afford him ample opportunity to make good on his base stealing ability and batting average potential.

With the 700+ plate appearances that batting atop the White Sox lineup is sure to bring, he should finish the season among the top 20 outfielders in fantasy. Regressing his on-base skills and lineup strength, de Aza should supply between 100-110 runs to go along with 60-70 RBI. Combine that with double digit home runs, a .290+ batting average, and 35-40 stolen bases, and you have quite a player.

Plugging this line into FantasyPlayerRater.com’s points calculator, he’d be worth about 2.7 roto points above average in 10-team leagues—exceeding such standouts as Andrew McCutchen (1.78 points, ADP: 25.67), Hunter Pence (1.89 points, ADP: 42.86), and Jay Bruce (1.42 points, ADP: 39.92).

His major league resume may be somewhat short, but that's fine. With a suprisingly low draft price (MockDraftCentral has his ADP at 228.65, while ESPN drafts have him at 225.7), he's a classic low-risk, high-reward play. This is a guy you want on your team—he's talented, has the opportunity, and comes extremely cheap.

One league I’m in lets members keep one player for 2013 at the round you drafted him in ’12. I took de Aza in the 19th—and I’m planning on having him lead my squad again next year for this highly discounted price.

There’s a bit of risk with any player taking over starting duties for the first time—scouting reports, attrition, expectations. But, de Aza’s a five-category contributor with a 400-plate appearance track record. He’s a great guy to bet on and you won't regret it.

Three-hole huge for Starlin Castro

For a fantasy shortstop, Starlin Castro is quite the complete player. He fills out the stat sheet quite well, with a good combination of average, speed, and even a little bit of pop. For Castro, the question mark is whether he can overcome a poor supporting staff to contribute the runs and RBIs to justify his lofty draft ranking (Mock Draft Central ADPMockDraftCentral ADP: 41.88, ESPN ADP: 57.9)

News that Castro will be batting in the three-hole (MLBDepthCharts) this season should alleviate those concerns. Though he doesn’t have the power typical of that lineup spot, it won’t hold back his ability to pile up the RBIs. In fact, the difference between him batting in the three hole and batting leadoff is substantial—about 20 RBIs (we regressed his RBIs to 75 in the three-hole, versus 55 leading off).

Those 20 RBIs are nothing to scoff at—FantasyPlayerRater.com has that difference in lineup spot contributing about a full point to his value in 10-team leagues. That point will come up big when you’re jockeying for position in the standings come September. Whether Castro can hold onto the three spot all year is another issue—but he’ll be all fun and games while he can.

Beachy could walk among league elite this year

While all the preseason hype this year has centered on the untapped potential of Stephen Strasburg and Matt Moore, Brandon Beachy's upcoming sophomore season has flown way under the radar.

And that’s good for you—Beachy is perhaps the biggest pitching bargain of this draft season. He's a potential No. 1 starter who has fallen far down the rankings to 114.15 according to MockDraftCentral and 135.3 in ESPN leagues.

Plugging in his plate discipline characteristics and batted ball profile, Beachy’s translated numbers point to a 3.00-3.10 ERA, 1.05-1.10 WHIP, and 9.5-10 K/9. Needless to say, this is an extraordinarily valuable pitcher. FantasyPlayerRater.com rates that profile as 5.53 points above average—comparable to Justin Verlander (5.31 points, ADP: 9.24) and better than Cliff Lee (4.00 points, ADP: 20.58).

Though he should be discounted somewhat as a pitcher taking on a full season load for the first time, Beachy is the exactly the kind of guy you want to bet on, having enough skill to finish among the top 10 pitchers of 2012.

Posted by Mike Silver at 9:03pm

This week in (fantasy) baseball 3/12-3/18

Andy Pettitte returns to Yankees

Like his old buddy Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte apparently decided the allure of playing baseball was too hard to resist after one year away from the game and announced his return to the Yankees this week. Pettitte, 39, was last seen in 2010, when he posted a 11-3 record with a 3.28 ERA and 1.271 WHIP over 21 starts.

How long will it take to get ready for action? Pettitte says he’s been keeping in shape over the offseason, but he won’t break camp with the team in time for Opening Day. Instead, he’ll spend the upcoming weeks getting his repertoire into shape and proving his left arm can stand up to the strains of pitching every fifth day. His return also could be delayed by Clemens’ perjury trial next month, at which Pettitte is scheduled to testify.

But perhaps most importantly for fantasy owners, Pettitte’s minor-league contract shakes up the back end of the Yankees’ rotation. CC Sabathia, Hiroki Kuroda and Michael Pineda account for three spots, while Ivan Nova is a likely fourth.

The early storyline this spring has been a fifth-starter battle between Phil Hughes—who continued his strong spring Friday by posting four scoreless innings against the Nationals—and Freddy Garcia. Last week, I wrote that a healthy Hughes would have the advantage over Garcia in cracking the rotation, but now, a healthy Pettitte would likely have the upper hand over both of them.

Garcia also has spent the past few days dealing with a bruised right hand, which he suffered Wednesday after a comebacker struck him. X-rays were negative, but he’ll likely miss his next turn in the rotation, which certainly doesn’t help his chances for breaking into the rotation. As for Hughes, there’s still a chance manager Joe Girardi could move him to the bullpen if David Robertson’s foot injury lingers.

Carlos Quentin to undergo knee surgery

As if being traded to the Padres and the vast expanse of Petco Park wasn’t enough to bruise Carlos Quentin’s fantasy value, the 29-year-old right-fielder will miss four to six weeks after he undergoes arthroscopic knee surgery today. That obliterates his first month of the season, calls into question how well he’ll fare upon returning and doesn’t do the San Diego lineup any favors.

Granted, Quentin has yet to recapture the MVP form he achieved in 2008 when he blasted 36 home runs and knocked in 100 runs, but he still offered fantasy owners decent power production at a potential discount. Considering San Diego’s dearth of offense, anything Quentin provides as a middle-of-the-order hitter stands to benefit Cameron Maybin, Nick Hundley and Will Venable, in turn boosting their fantasy value.

As for the Padres’ left-field options, look for Kyle Blanks, Jesus Guzman and Chris Denorfia to gain playing time, with Blanks and Guzman in particular offering intriguing upside. Blanks was a popular sleeper heading into the 2010 season, but elbow surgery nuked his past two seasons, and he’s not yet assured of a spot on San Diego’s 25-man roster by the time spring training ends.

Guzman, on the other hand, will likely break camp with the team and could take advantage of some added playing time. Producing a .312/.369/.478 line in 271 plate appearances last year, Guzman, 27, played well in parts of four seasons in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, but fantasy owners shouldn’t expect much power or steals from him if he does emerge as the regular starter in Quentin’s absence.

Royals lose Salvador Perez for at least three months

In a significant blow to fantasy owners, Royals catcher Salvador Perez last week suffered a meniscus tear in his left knee that will zap at least three months of his season. Part of a deep 2012 sleeper class at catcher, Perez, 21, was rewarded with a five-year contract extension recently after posting a .331 average in 158 plate appearances last year.

Brayan Pena will take over as the club’s primary backstop and will likely see extended playing time, as GM Dayton Moore has indicated he won’t deal prospects to acquire a bigger name at the position. Pena, 30, posted a .625 OPS last year in 240 plate appearances with just three home runs, so he’s strictly an AL-only option in deep leagues.

Mets' injury woes continue as David Wright strains rib cage muscle

As if the Mets need any more problems, David Wright’s availability for Opening Day took a hit last week when he received a cortisone shot in the left side of his rib cage for a strained rectus abdominis. Although the 29-year-old third baseman says he’ll be ready for the start of the season, it’s reasonable to believe the first few weeks of his season are in jeopardy, especially since Ryan Zimmerman missed two months last year after suffering the same injury.

Wright’s past few years—and well-documented problems with Citi Field—probably keep him just out of the top tier of third basemen anyway, but he’s probably not worth plucking until at least the third round of mixed fantasy leagues until more news on his ability to stay on the field comes in.

As backup options go, take a look at Justin Turner, who showed some flashes of batting ability during an up-and-down 2011, his first full season.

Other news and notes from around MLB

• Michael Morse continues to battle a lat strain that has kept him out of the lineup since spring training began. Meanwhile, a strained left ankle has shut down Adam LaRoche, whose return is currently unknown.

• Speaking of players yet to appear this spring, Chase Utley’s right knee has held him out of action this month. Utley, 33, finished 2011 with fewer than 400 at-bats after the same knee bothered him throughout the season.

• Chien-Ming Wang strained his left hamstring Thursday while fielding, leaving his ability to make the Opening Day roster in jeopardy. That’s a shame, since he’s pitched well so far this spring and looked good down the stretch for Washington last year. But even if he wasn’t faced with losing playing time, he was still entrenched in a battle with John Lannan for the Nationals’ fifth-starter job, so Lannan’s odds of having a regular gig to start the season have increased significantly.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:11am

Second look: Top 25 fantasy third basemen for 2012

Over the next week or so, in an attempt to catch up on fantasy season, I am going to do a top 20 or so list by position for the players who will either be eligible at that position under Yahoo! default standards to start the season or who are projected to gain eligibility within the first month of the season (e.g., Miguel Cabrera and Jesus Montero). The rules of eligibility for Yahoo fantasy leagues:

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

ESPN imposes a more rigorous default position eligibility standard (e.g., 20 games played at the position last season, 10 games played in the present season), so you may have to do additional research if you play ESPN fantasy to verify that players listed in these articles are in fact "position eligible" in your league.

These rankings are based on 5x5 standard Yahoo! Roto leagues. Rankings are not based on real-life value but fantasy value. Hence, players like Juan Pierre tend to have value for you closer to what Kenny Williams is willing to pay him in real life. Projections listed below are courtesy of Brian Cartwright's Oliver projection system. I recommend that you purchase a subscription, as the pre- and in-season updates are an invaluable fantasy tool.

My rankings are not exclusively based on Oliver's projections, however. Rankings are primarily determined based on total production by category, balance in production, and scarcity of production level. Because I am ranking players by position, positional flexibility is not taken into account in my rankings (though you should absolutely consider positional flexibility at the draft board).

Tiers represent groups of relatively fungible players, guys who if you traded me the guy at the bottom of that tier for the top guy would not require you to add "too much" value to pull off a trade. In other words, guys within a tier are relatively easy to trade for one another.

If you have any specific questions about my rankings, please post them in the comments.

Here are my top 20 fantasy third basemen for 2012.

TIER 1
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1         Miguel Cabrera*     DET       .327/.415/.564
2         Jose Bautista       TOR       .268/.392/.553

TIER 2
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
3         Hanley Ramirez*     MIA       .295/.369/.457
4         Evan Longoria       TBR       .269/.357/.501
5         Adrian Beltre       TEX       .292/.333/.497

TIER 3
6         Ryan Zimmerman      WAS       .293/.364/.483
7         Brett Lawrie        TOR       .268/.322/.474
8         Pablo Sandoval      SFG       .300/.351/.498
9         David Wright**      NYM       .279/.358/.448
10        Alex Rodriguez      NYY       .264/.347/.462
11        Aramis Ramirez      MIL       .276/.333/.466
12        Michael Young       TEX       .302/.349/.447
13        Kevin Youkilis      BOS       .278/.382/.488

TIER 4
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
14        Mark Reynolds       BAL       .226/.326/.482
15        Edwin Encarnacion   TOR       .251/.320/.443
16        Martin Prado        ATL       .281/.325/.415

TIER 5
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
17        Mike Moustakas      KCR       .264/.308/.434
18        Ian Stewart         CHC       .226/.308/.422
19        Emilio Bonifacio    MIA       .272/.330/.351

TIER 6
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
20        Ryan Roberts        ARI       .245/.326/.397
21        David Freese        STL       .279/.336/.416
22        Chipper Jones       ATL       .258/.347/.410
23        Ty Wigginton        PHI       .239/.300/.382
23        Lonnie Chisenhall   CLE       .242/.300/.404

TIER 7
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
24        Chris Davis         BAL       .271/.325/.479
25        Pedro Alvarez       PIT       .243/.320/.435

Tier 1

Tier one is pretty non-controversial. Once he obtains third-base eligibility, Miguel Cabrera projects as the No. 1 overall fantasy third baseman because, despite a dearth of speed, he is a four-category monster. He annually appears atop the league leaderboard for batting average and runs batted in and has elite 30-plus home run power and plenty of runs contribution out of the middle of the Tigers' fearsome lineup.

The only real "risk" in drafting Miggy as your third baseman is that he never becomes third-base eligible. Now, the Tigers have been adamant about the fact that Miggy will be their Opening Day third baseman, but keep in mind a few things.

First, Cabrera has not played third base in a regular-season game since April 19, 2008. Second, he has a -5 career UZR/150 fielding score. Cabrera is only 29(!) this season, but defense is "the first thing to go," tending to peak in a player's early 20s, per historical aging curves. Considering he was not much of a third baseman to begin with (-6 UZR and -11 total zone in 2007, his last full season as a third baseman), who knows what he's capable now?

Third and finally, considering the first two points, the Tigers have no immediate need to play Cabrera at third base. They moved him off third because of his defense in 2008, and with Victor Martinez out for the year, even if you play Prince Fielder at first, you have an open designated hitter spot to hide Cabrera until 2012 (assuming the Tigers do not trade Martinez next offseason).

At most, the Tigers will only need to slot Cabrera at third base for one season, 2013. They'll certainly want to give him plenty of practice in 2012, which bodes well for leagues with low games-played eligibility thresholds, but how often they'll force play Miggy to play third, with Fielder and Jhonny Peralta taking up two-thirds of the rest of the infield, will likely depend on how often the opposing team decides to bunt the first week of the season.

That isn't to say Miggy will not get third-base eligibility for even the deepest of eligibility threshold leagues by the end of April, but it is a calculated risk that you need to be aware of, and potentially plan for, on draft day.

Jose Bautista legitimately offers monster power, but hitting for average is not really one of his tools. He rewarded his believers in a big way last year, even with a "down" second half (if you call a second-half pro-rated pace of batting .257 (.419 OBP) with 28 home runs, 88 RBI, nine stolen bases and 74 runs scored disappointing).

However, anyone expecting him to repeat a .290-plus batting average is downright foolish. A .270/35/10 performance with 200 runs-plus-RBI is certainly in the cards, but Bautista does carry some batting average risk. Pay accordingly, hold him confidently—just do not do so delusionally expecting a five-category guy.

Tier 2

Tier two is comprised of fantasy superstars who should easily contribute in four-plus fantasy categories in 2012. These are players who are arguably as valuable as the guys in tier one but carry some questionable risk that will necessitate some degree of relative discount in their services in comparison to tier one players.

I expect my Hanley Ramirez at No. 3 pick to be a bit controversial. He is coming off a career-worst season and two consecutive seasons of decline following several seasons of dwindling stolen base totals. Still, he is arguably the only true five-category player likely to have third-base eligibility in 2012. Ramirez's back allegedly is healed, and he's reported to camp ripped.

A 20/20 campaign should be no problem for Ramirez, who still put up a 10/20 in under 100 games last season, and if his back and shoulder are truly healed, there is reason to expect a major uptick in the batting average (.275 BABIP in 2011, career .339 mark).

The Marlins also seriously upgraded their team for 2012, and MLB Depth Charts is forecasting Ramirez to bat out of the No. 3 hole. That makes a .300/20/30/100/100 campaign entirely plausible. Health and questions of what portion of his two-year decline can be attributed solely to injury (that is no longer a worry) are the lingering question marks that keeps Ramirez outside of tier one.

Next comes the most volatile stud of the third-base group. Evan Longoria has the potential to do it all and has shown flashes of five-category production. He stole 15 bases in 2010, and nine bases in 2009. He also batted .294 in 2010 and has hit 113 home runs in 563 career games played (which averages out to just over 30 home runs per 150 games played). He also has elite on-base skills out of the middle of the Rays lineup, producing a combined 326 RBI over the past three years combined.

Still, Longoria has not been a five-category player in any of his first four seasons. In all honesty, he is likely to be a three-category monster this season (HR/R/RBI) with modest contributions in a fourth category (SB) without really hurting you in the fifth (AVG), but he has that four-/five-category upside and is still plenty youthful. (He turns 27 in October).

Expect Longoria to hit in the .270s with 10 stolen bases to boot, give or take a few of bags. You can already rely on him for home runs and RBI, and the Rays offense still looks potent enough to drive Longoria in 90-plus times over the course of a full and healthy season. Inconsistency is what keeps Longoria out of the first tier, along with modest health questions that a productive spring training should set aside.

Adrian Beltre is arguably the "safest" pick of the elite third baseman, and he is arguably a touch more valuable than Longoria because of this. He offers minimal stolen bases, but he should hit for a relatively high batting average (high .280s) with 25-30 home run power out of the middle of a deep offensive lineup that should easily net him 80-plus runs scored and 90-plus RBI.

It's hard to believe this is the player, just a few seasons ago, many people were so foolishly writing off as a washed up, "contract year only" guy, perpetuating the myth that Beltre was overpaid on the Mariners. The reason I ranked Beltre lower than Longoria is that he is an older health risk and because Longoria offers four-/five-category upside, all else being equal. Hamstring concerns and multiple injuries in 2011 that limited Beltre to 124 (very productive) games are what keep him outside tier one.

Tier 3

Tier three is deep, consisting of guys with lots of upside but serious question marks (talent, injury, etc.) surrounding their ability to reach their potential. If you could get any two of these three guys to mitigate the risk, you'd be golden, but doing so would cost way too much.

The Nationals belong on that TV show Hoarders for having Ryan Zimmerman locked up at third base long term with Anthony Rendon in their system. (They're also apparently hoarding players with the last name of Zimmerman(n)). That is such a nice problem to have. Zimmerman is not immune to injury—see 2012 and 2008 as examples—but when he's healthy, Z-pack is a consistent force.

Zimmerman offers batting average upside (.290-plus) with 25-30 home run power and moderate stolen base contributions. He also bats out of the middle of a Washington Nationals' lineup I expect bigger things from in 2012 with a rebound from Jayson Werth and more playing time for Michael Morse. Bryce Harper might even make an appearance by the end of the year. That means the potential for 200 R+RBI is not off the table, with the reasonable expectation of 180.

Few third basemen can tout 25-plus homer upside and batting average upside, which is what makes Z-pack so valuable. Let's just hope he can stay healthy this year!

Brett Lawrie is overrated and being overdrafted for what he is. Still, given the state of third base, he merits ranking as the seventh overall player at the hot corner. Just be aware that his current value takes all the profit out of the pick, leaving you totally exposed to the downside risk. Lawrie was never a "can't-miss" prospect until his explosion in the minors last season. As I noted a little over a month ago:

Lawrie was the Blue Jays' big prize for trading away talented starting pitcher Shaun Marcum. Heading into 2011, Lawrie was ranked the No. 40 overall prospect in the minors. His 2009 and 2010 seasons in Single-A and Double-A ball had been solid (composite .777 OPS in 2009 and a .797 OPS in 2010) but nothing special. He projected as a major league-capable player with a relatively modest, but appealing, ceiling...

...Lawrie's 2011 power breakout could be legit, but how legit is it? After posting a .180 ISO in Single-A and .154 ISO in Double-A, you have to wonder how much of his .308 Triple-A ISO and .287 major league ISO Lawrie can repeat in 2012, especially given his two hand injuries last season. I am not saying that he is not healthy by now; I am just noting the things you need to be aware of.

Oliver projects a solid .180+ ISO from Lawrie this year, with 20 home run potential if he stays healthy enough to accumulate 600-plus plate appearances. Oliver also forecasts a .280 batting average and 10-15 stolen bases. Those are undoubtedly strong numbers, and Lawrie, of course, has the potential to top them. I think Oliver's forecast is pretty spot on, though I would project Lawrie for a slightly higher batting average. You find me another .285/20/15-capable third baseman for 2012 not named David Wright, and I will call you a liar.

My thoughts and opinions on Lawrie have not changed since drafting that article, though it is worth noting that Hanley Ramirez is certainly " another .285/20/15-capable third baseman."

In that same article I quoted on Lawrie from, you might notice that Pablo Sandoval is ranked higher than Lawrie. So why is he ranked lower here? The answer has to do with reports that Sandoval showed up to camp out of shape. The haunting memories of 2010 are still too fresh in my mind. I was big on Kung Fu Panda last year, but worries about his weight have my expectations slightly tempered in 2012. But hey, I am not counting on him to prove me right.

David Wright has an abdomen tear. With Citi Field's dimensions being overhauled, I was projecting a solid bounce-back year for Wright. But with lingering health issues such as back problems, and now this abdominal tear, in tandem with a post-concussion-inflated strikeout rate that has eroded his once-bankable .300 batting average production, I'm not sure just how high I can be on Wright without looking too insane.

Third base is pretty shallow this year, which automatically makes Wright pretty mixed-league relevant regardless. Once you consider his 20/20 upside, even with a .270 batting average (I do not expect him to produce, at worst, a batting average much lower than that) and injury risk, Wright is a player that needs to be owned. Wright is certainly not worth spending "top money" on, and he's been drafted entirely too soon in most leagues (as a top-four third baseman) this offseason, but hopefully, for you late-drafting leagues, Wright's injury will seriously discount his services.

I am not taking the risk on Wright in 2012, but then again, I'm the same guy who refused to take the risk on Albert Pujols in 2009, Beltre in 2010, or Lance Berkman in 2011 even though I liked them a lot (despite injury and decline) in their respective preseasons.

Alex Rodriguez's slotting logic is pretty similar to Wrights, but he is older, potentially more injury-prone, and no longer offers the stolen base upside he used to. Does .280/25/8/100/100 seem like a reasonable ceiling? The floor has to at least be last year's .276/16/4/67/62 line, if even that high. Volatile injury risk is what keep Rodriguez's rank so low despite his upside.

Which Aramis Ramirez is going to show up in 2012? The 2011 version? The 2010 version? Will he be injured? And will he finally be able to stay productive when the team needs him most and when he is in the limelight—say, when Ryan Braun goes through an offensive slump?

These are the questions that qualify Ramirez's .280 batting average (without much OBP or speed to boot), 25 home run, and 90-100 RBI upside. That and a Brewers offense counting on Rickie Weeks to stay healthy and Mat Gamel to prove he can hit the ball.

Plenty has been written by me about Michael Young, who might qualify at pitcher next season at this rate. You can read my thoughts on him here and here.

As I also noted in my first baseman rankings, "[t]his might seem like a low ranking for Kevin Youkilis, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy." He's still plenty valuable to own in order to have a cool fantasy baseball team name like "We Kill You Before Youkilis."

Tier 4

By tier four, the players no longer just lack three-category upside, but they also have negative value in one or more fantasy categories (or, in the case of Prado, a lack of much positive value all around).

Mark Reynolds has 35-home run and 100-RBI upside. Why is he ranked so low? Because he has Adam Dunn-like batting average upside. You'll have to plan to offset his batting average drain in a big way to roster his otherwise cheap power.

Little known fact: Edwin Encarnacion is an anagram for "Adam Lind clone with OBP upside." A .260/25/100 season is quite plausible, but so is a lot less production. Encarnacion's dip in ISO might be a little worrisome considering that pop is his flashiest tool, but at age 29, given his June through August production, there's plenty reason to believe the power will uptick again in 2012. Oh, and he steals the occasional base.

Encarnacion is a great insurance policy for those who draft a Wright/A-Rod/Youkilis-type, and he could make a really solid showing as a corner infielder for your fantasy team this season.

Martin Prado offers the least downside in any single fantasy category, but he also offers minimal upside. Prado does a little bit of everything. He'll hit for a respectable, above-average fantasy batting average, struggle to put up a home run total in the teens, swipe five or so bases, and add maybe 140 very balanced runs-plus-RBI contribution to your bottom line. Losing a lot of his positional flexibility has drained much of his fantasy value, and he's no Ben Zobrist.

Tier 5

First and foremost, let's get this out of the way. I am not an Emilio Bonifacio believer. I just don't think he is bona fide. He might possess .270/30 upside, but as I explained last week:

He's always had a knack for speed, but his 2009 and 2010 combined output, over 200 games played, is still a less-than-enthralling 33 stolen bases (nine caught stealing), one home run, 100 runs scored and 37 RBI with a sub-.260 batting average. So color me skeptical when that player hits .296 with 40 stolen bases and five home runs over 152 games.

I view Mike Moustakas and Ian Stewart as flip sides of a coin for 2012. Oliver, ZiPS and other services project the two players for near identical OPS marks and similar home run, stolen base and RBI production rates. Moustakas will likely have an edge on Stewart in batting average (though I expect Stewart to hit in the low-to-mid .240s this year), but Stewart has more power and patience. Even with a high strikeout clip, 10-plus percent walk rates do not exactly grow on trees.

Stewart essentially has two full seasons worth of at-bats to his name, and that's entirely too few to write off a former first-round, top-10 overall pick whose minor league numbers have previously shown plenty of promise. The Cubs took a low-risk, medium-reward approach when they acquired Stewart this summer.

For the one dollar it will cost you to acquire him, Stewart is worth the low risk at a shallow position when he could return fantasy relevant production—potentially top-12 at third base if all were to go right. Think of him as Carlos Pena but with positional scarcity on his side. A .240/22/5 performance is in the cards.

Moustakas gets the edge, however, because he is younger and has a more recent track record of productive minor league productivity. I think he's very overrated, and he has an atrocious walk rate. I think what you saw last year is what you'll see this year, but with closer to a .180 ISO and a handful more strikeouts. Moose likely will cost you much more than Stewart at draft day on brand name alone, but my production expectations for the two are practically identical in leagues that use OBP or OPS in place of batting average.

Tier 6

No one in this tier really has the potential to light the world on fire, but each players offers enough modest upside or 1-2 category production to make a solid late-round flier. Ryan Roberts and Ty Wigginton have extra value out of their mutli-positional flexibility, but neither really does too much.

Roberts could get you double-digit home runs and stolen bases, and maybe even 140 runs-plus-RBI, but his batting average is likely going to stink. Wigginton offers solid pop and arguably 15-20 home run upside with enough playing time (though if he couldn't do it in Coors...), but his batting average will be even worse than Roberts, and his only "other" category of contribution, if any, is likely to be RBI.

David Freese is an overated guy with 15-17 home run power. Maybe it's because people always expect the injury-prone third baseman to break out, or maybe it's just because of the post-World Series hype, but I feel Freese is getting more love than his upside—maybe .280/15/70/60/2?—deserves.

Chipper Jones is Chipper Jones. OBP leagues should keep an eye on him. He's pretty likely to repeat his 2009-2011 numbers this season, if that sort of thing appeals to the type of league you play in.

Lonnie Chisenhall probably has the most upside of anyone in this group, but I question his ability to reach that potential, at least in 2012. His 2009 MLE was a .236/.287/.443 line, and 2010 wasn't too much better at .246/.308/.398. And last year? A .242/.299/.388 MLE doesn't seem good enough in my mind to warrant getting berated by Indians fans for claiming Cleveland has a long-term hole at third base.

Chisenhall does not project to do much at this point. His 2015 projected line based on career MLB/MiLB performance to date: .243/.302/.405 (.309 wOBA). He's not much better than Wiggington in my eyes, but at least Wiggington has proven himself capable of doing it at the major league level.

Tier 7

Chris Davis arguably belongs much higher than this. I have drafted him in a couple of my leagues, and he's got legitimate 25-home run power with the skills to hit .275 or higher. At the same time, however, I have historically put too much blind stock in Davis' potential. I can only write about him so many times before you reach the point where you just have to say, despite all your faith, that this guy needs to prove something before I actively recommend him again.

Pedro Alvarez rounds out the top 25 because he has legitimate power potential and solid walk stills but a questionable contact/strikeout rate that makes him a high-risk, medium-reward play. The presence of Casey McGehee certain complicates things and shortens Alvarez's leash, but his minor league production to date says he shouldn't be nearly as bad in 2012 and beyond as he was in 2011. Assuming you have faith and can get him for a dollar, now is the time to buy low for keeper leagues.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:08am

Sunday, March 18, 2012

Roto Chat this Sunday, March 18

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:09am

Friday, March 16, 2012

Top 100 Fantasy baseball Prospects, Part 2: 26-50

26: Hak-Ju Lee/SS/Tampa Bay Rays/11-4-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Not much power projection, but breakout 2011 resulted in an MLE slash of .272/.325/.385.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Sure, everyone loves power. Lee won't provide much of it, but that doesn't mean he can't be an impact player at a position where offense is a luxury. What Lee lacks in power he can easily make up for in pure hitting ability and speed. The fact that he recognizes home run hitting isn't a part of his game is a big plus.

Lee slaps the ball around the field, and isn't afraid to work walks to get on base where his speed is a headache for opponents. His efficiency was down last year, but that should improve with work and further coaching. His speed, on-base skills, and modest power make him an ideal player to hit at or near the top of the order. As a table setter, he could be a big contributor in runs scored and stolen bases. He should also provide ample production in batting average. He struggled in his first crack at Double-A, and he'll open the year back with Montgomery hoping for more success in attempt two. With fellow shortstop prospect Tim Beckham a level ahead of him, the Rays can afford to take their time with Lee.

October 2011: Prior to the season the Rays dealt Matt Garza to the Cubs for a gaggle of prospects. The highest rated prospect was Chris Archer who was coming off a solid 2010 campaign. The true crown jewel appears to be Hak-Ju Lee, who had a breakout 2011 season.

The primary responsibility of any up-the-middle player is defense, and Lee's is banner. What matters more to fantasy gamers, though, is that he comes equipped with the ability to hit. His power may never show itself as more than average, and his MLEs suggest it won't, but some scouting reports suggest his plus bat speed could result in gap power with some round trippers tossed in as he matures. His speed should allow him to take advantage of his strong on-base skills and steal bases. He's one level below Tim Beckham who is in Triple-A right now, but is the better bet to play shortstop for the Rays when he gets there.

27: Kolten Wong/2B/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2013
Forecast notes:: Oliver's forecast loves Wong, and believes he's ready now. Double digit power and speed combination with a plus batting average: That would play great at second base.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Wong won't wow fantasy gamers in any one statistical category, but his ability to help across the board will make him a very valuable player at the keystone position. The one category he should shine the brightest in is batting average. He has an advanced understanding of the strike zone and a compact swing that leads to ropes to the gaps. He has enough pop in his bat to hit teen taters in the Show, and enough baserunning savvy and speed to match or best that stealing bases.

Lineup position will be key for Wong, as he'll need to score a healthy number of runs or drive them in to maximize his fantasy value. His strong on-base skills profile well for the top of an order, and little stands in his way to eventually laying claim to the Cardinals' leadoff duties in the future. Wong's pro debut exemplified his polish, and he should fly through the system. Second base is messy on the parent club, but Wong should clean things up, laying claim to keystone duties sometime in 2013.

October 2011: Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks is a Wong believer but alludes to a potential move to left field that would cripple his value in fantasy. Baseball America also cites his ability to play a super utility type role. Small in stature, but not lacking for pop, he could produce teens home run totals. He's a plus hitter with average speed but good base running instincts that could net him useful stolen base totals.

28: Cheslor Cuthbert/3B/Kansas City Royals/11-16-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Oliver projects that Cuthbert is a few years from being fantasy relevant. By 2015 he is projected to hit high teens home run totals with a low batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The dog days of summer took their toll on Cuthbert, and his final season line paid for it. In May, June and July he hit .308, .307, and .356 respectively with seven home runs in 204 at-bats. He showed patience, walking 19 times, and made contact frequently, striking out only 33 times. The wheels fell off the bus in July, and he was unable to recover in August. His .135 average was putrid, and he struck out 32 times in his final 96 at-bats.

The culprit for his struggles was mostly fatigue. Cuthbert played more than twice as many games in 2011 as he had played in 2010. He also played all season as an 18-year-old. He made strides in the field, but not everyone is sold he'll stick at third. Cuthbert has the arm to stick there; the concern is that he'll outgrow the position.

For now, he'll rank this highly with the thought being he'll stick at third base. If he moves off the position, he'll see a significant hit to his fantasy stock. He'll start the year in High-A playing in a park, Wilmington, that according to ballpark factors found at Baseball Think Factory (thanks to the work of Jeff Sackman and Dan Szymborsk)i, suppressed home runs substantially (0.78 multiplier, with 1.00 being neutral). Keep that in mind if his power numbers aren't off the charts. Cuthbert projects to hit for power in the future, and as long as the scouting reports continue to read as such, don't adjust your expectations for him too drastically if he fails to put up a gaudy home run total in 2012.

October 2011: Cuthbert doesn't get the due he deserves as part of a loaded Royals farm system. At just 18, he's playing in a full season league and playing well. He has struggled of late, but some scouts believe it's a product of him wearing down. Baseball Prospectus' Jason Parks called him a breakout candidate coming into the season. He describes Cuthbert as having "some of the best barrel awareness" he has ever seen in a teen. He uses the whole field as a hitter and has developing power.

He's got enough defensive skills to stick at third base as well. He was an honorable mention on Keith Law's midseason top-50 prospect list as well, and is a C+ high upside prospect in the eyes of Sickels.

29: Jacob Turner/SP/Detroit Tigers/5-21-91/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Two solid years with good control but only average strikeout rates.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Having not spent a full season at any one minor league level, Turner is on the Tigers' accelerated pitcher development plan (see: The Rick Porcello Plan). Turner has acquitted himself well at each stop save for struggling in a couple major league starts after a decent debut in the Show.

Turner's control and command are excellent. His high water walk mark in the minors was a plenty good 2.53 BB/9 in 113.2 innings pitched at the Double-A level. He's walked under two batters per nine innings at every other level of the minors. Turner throws three average or better pitches, a couple of fastballs that sit in the low-90s with movement, a plus curveball, and an average change-up that flashes more on occasion.

His strikeout rates have been a little low for a prospect who occasionally gets future ace grades, and at worst, gets top-flight number two starter grades. A big part of that is likely the speed at which he has been moved through the system after being selected in the first round of the 2009 amateur draft. In three Triple-A starts made after his major league debut, he was at his best, striking out 20 batters in 17.1 innings pitched (10.38 K/9), all while still pounding the strike zone (1.56 BB/9). Turner is in the mix for the Tigers' fifth starter gig this spring. If he doesn't break camp in that role, expect him to lay claim to it sometime early in the summer.

October 2011: Turner was considered the top high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and the Tigers promptly snapped him up and paid him an above-slot $5.5 million. He's a three-pitch starter with a fastball around 92-94 mph that can be bumped up a bit when he needs a little extra oomph. Most scouting reports describe his heater as having sink or boring action, which help him induce ground balls. His best secondary offering is a developing 12-to-6 curveball with plus potential and a change-up that could end up being an average big league pitch.

He has moved quickly, and in a perfect world has the package to develop into a top of the rotation starter. His control is quite good, but his strikeout rate leaves something to be desired from a fantasy perspective. The natural fear for those who have followed the Tigers' recent development of pitching arms is that Turner turns into Rick Porcello version 2.0. He hasn't been rushed as quickly, and has struck out more hitters in his brief Triple-A and major league time, so don't rush to that assumption just yet

30: Taijuan Walker/SP/Seattle Mariners/8-13-92/ ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Control is a work in progress, but strikeouts in bunches.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Mariners have a trio of starting pitching prospects that compares favorably to just about any in all of baseball, and Walker's ceiling is the highest of the bunch. He is also the furthest away. That said, his play in 2011 was excellent for a 2010 draftee who was a multi-sport prep star, and he should move faster than most would have anticipated.

Walker joined professional ball with a live arm that fired blazing fastballs. He still has that fastball, but now backs it with a developing change-up he's able to use in games, and a hammer curveball that is a doozy and can make opposing hitters look foolish. It's unclear where he'll begin the year in the minors. He may open in High-A playing in a hitter-friendly environment, or he may open skipping a level and pitching at Double-A. Either assignment will prove challenging for Walker, and will better help set an accurate timetable for his arrival to the bigs.

October 2011: Impressive season in Single-A as an 18-year-old who was considered a raw high school pitcher when the Mariners selected him in the supplemental first round of the 2010 draft. In part, he was considered raw because he was a high school basketball player and played shortstop as well. He throws a fastball with heavy sink and premier velocity (can reach 98 mph). As one would expect, that sinking fastball has helped him rack up the groundball outs (1.54 ground out-to-fly out). He also throws a plus curveball and is developing a change-up. His control has been described as spotty by both Kevin Goldstein and Sickels, so a 2014 ETA may be a bit ambitious. When he does arrive in the majors, calling Safeco Field home will be a nice perk.

31: Bubba Starling/OF/Kansas City Royals/8-3-92/ETA: 2016
Forecast notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Little has change with Starling since his October write-up. He still oozes with tools, and still doesn't have any professional game experience. He did see time in instructional league with the organization, and will look to earn a full-season league assignment in the spring. The sky is the limit for Starling, but there are countless stories of great athletes who failed as baseball players.

October 2011: The toolsy Nebraska football recruit chose professional baseball at Major League Baseball's signing deadline. His two-sport prowess limited his opportunities to play in premium high school baseball showcase events, and leave him an exciting piece of clay that needs molding to become something special at the major league level. He's a high-risk/high-reward type who may never be able to translate his physical abilities into baseball skills, or he may take well to coaching and turn into a superstar capable of 30/30 seasons with batting average. Starling's ranking on this list is likely to be polarizing, but at a certain point that tantalizing upside is too hard to pass on.

32: Jedd Gyorko/3B/San Diego Padres/9-23-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: 2011 MLE slash line of .303/.357/.510 suggests he's ready now.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Don't always judge a book by its cover. Gyorko isn't going to earn high marks for his physical appearance, but that hasn't stopped him from playing defense well enough at third base to project him to stick there. It also hasn't prevented him from ripping the cover off of baseballs at the dish.

He has hit a scintillating .323/.392/.518 in 844 professional at-bats. He was even better than that in the AFL, slashing an almost unfathomable .437/.500/.704 with five home runs in 82 plate appearances. His power grades out as average to a hair above and will be done no favors playing his home games at Petco in the future (though, Petco isn't nearly as tough on right-handed power as it is on left-handed power). What he lacks in power from the corner, he makes up for with projections of a high batting averages from seemingly every scouting outlet. All laud his short swing and strike zone awareness. Whether it be in Double-A, or in Triple-A, he'll begin the year in the high minors with a chance for a September call-up.

October 2011: Gyorko isn't a great defender, but he's a passable one who won't need to be moved off the hot corner, which immediately makes his offensive success this year more exciting. Most of his home run production came in the hitter-friendly Cal League, but he has done well moving up to Double-A, hitting six home runs in 221 at-bats. He squeaked his way onto Baseball America's and Goldstein's MidSeason Top 50 Prospect list, but missed Keith Law's.

He was a college hitter drafted in last year's second round, so low minor league success was to be expected. His complete dominance was better than expectations, though, and his success in Double-A is most promising for future big league success. Goldstein really likes his bat speed and projects average power. Playing in Petco is no walk in the park, but right-handed hitters like Gyorko don't have to deal with the soul-crushing home run suppression left-handed hitters do. He has a higher floor and safer projection than most of the third basemen in front of him on this list, but lacks the high ceiling of the others.

33: Martin Perez/SP/Texas Rangers/4-4-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Too many walks and hasn't put together a major league-quality season yet. Still young and in Triple-A.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Southpaws with Perez's stuff don't grow on trees. It is important to keep in perspective that his struggles in Triple-A came as a 20-year-old. The Rangers' official website says he has added a two-seam fastball to his pitch mix. Any extra weapons he can deploy to effectively retire hitters is a good thing.

Perez is likely to open the year at Triple-A, continuing to work as a starter, but there were some rumblings from the Fort Worth Star-Telegram in late February that he may break camp as the lone lefty in the Rangers bullpen. Perez wouldn't be the first big-time southpaw prospect to get his first introduction to the bigs in a relief capacity, but he'd probably be best served taking another crack at Triple-A hitters as a starting pitcher.

October 2011: As I ranked players using good old-fashioned pen and paper, Perez made me regret not opting for pencil as he was moved on the list often. Like Oliver and the Forecaster, I'd like to see more results. That said, it's hard not to get excited about a 20-year-old southpaw in Triple-A with gaudy scouting reports and plus velocity. Baseball America thinks highly enough of him to rank him sixth on its midseason top-50 prospect rankings list.

J.J. Cooper's July 8 midseason top-50 prospect chat wrap addressed a reader's question about Perez's performance, citing scouts saying he's shown three plus pitches. Let that sink in for a second: not one, not two, but three plus pitches from a left-handed pitcher with plus velocity and is in Triple-A at 20 Those who have faith in him putting things together would be justified in ranking him higher, and those who wish to see him perform better in games would be equally justified in moving him down the list. This serves as a happy medium ranking.

34: Manny Banuelos/SP/New York Yankees/3-13-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Control and strikeout rates took a significant step backwards, and it shows in comparing his 2010 MLE to his 2011 MLE.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Banuelos took a step back in his control, and in his strikeout rate in 2011. He still has plus stuff, and is quite young. He's getting work in spring training with the Yankees, but will return to Triple-A to begin the year. If he is able to recapture the command and control he showed in the lower levels of the minors, he could be a spot starter candidate over the summer.

October 2011: Good 2009 at age 18 followed by an average 2010. Way too many walks (4.8 BB/9, 5.7 BB/9) but young enough to be projectable to 3.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 4.27 ERA in 2014.

The gap between him and the higher-ranked Martin Perez probably isn't as big as this list might suggest. Both are young left-handers in Triple-A with plus stuff, according to industry experts. Banuelos' two best pitches by most accounts are his fastball and his change-up. His fastball resides in the low 90s and can touch 95 mph. He also throws a curveball with plus potential. The biggest concern surrounding Banuelos is his command, which has eroded since moving up the minor league ladder. At just 20, he has time to work that out.

The biggest difference between Banuelos and Perez is that Banuelos will pitch his home games at Yankee Stadium, which is more homer-happy than Rangers Ballpark at Arlington, and in the more treacherous American League East.

35: Danny Hultzen/SP/Seattle Mariners/11-28-89/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Sterling walk and strikeout rate projections from Oliver.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Hultzen pitched very well in the AFL, starting in six games and firing 19.1 innings to the tune of a 1.40 ERA and 2.79 FIP. He didn't miss many bats in his first three turns, striking out just two batters in nine innings, and failing to strike out a batter in his second and third starts, which spanned three and four innings respectively. He picked up his strikeout pace in his last three games, though, recording 16 in 10.1 innings.

Not included on his MiLB player page, or in the stats rattled off above, is his impressive two-inning start in the AFL Rising Stars game in which he allowed no hits, no runs and one walk, and struck out two. He is a very polished 2011 college draftee who is likely to begin the year in Double-A and finish the year in the majors.

October 2011: Most scouting reports describe him as having a No. 2 starter's ceiling. While that's solid, some of the other pitchers drafted around him are viewed as having more upside. That said, Hultzen is considered polished and has a seemingly higher floor than those same higher upside starters.

He's a southpaw who throws a fastball in the 92-94 mph range, but can touch 96. He also throws a slider that Kevin Goldstein calls a plus pitch, Baseball America calls an average pitch that shows plus potential, John Sickels refers to as improved, and Lincoln Hamilton of Project Prospect says has shown plus break but occasionally flattens out. All those scouting gurus rave about his change-up and call it a plus pitch, with most declaring it his best offering.

His command and control are above average, which along with three quality offerings helps support his high floor. His fantasy value is boosted with Safeco being his home ballpark.

36: Drew Pomeranz/SP/Colorado Rockies/11-22-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Outstanding professional debut MLE 3.74 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 2011.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Pomeranz is a big southpaw with plus velocity on his fastball. That velocity was down a bit in his major league debut that followed an emergency appendectomy. His plus fastball is actually his second-best pitch, trailing his knee-buckling curveball. Unfortunately, Pomeranz's change-up lags behind both plus offerings and is currently below average. He's gotten by primarily as a two pitch pitcher, but will need to develop his change-up to at least average if he hopes to have sustainable success in the bigs. The pitch has shown promise, and it's expected that he'll just need time and repetition for that to be the case.
He'll have a shot to be in the Rockies rotation on Opening Day. If he struggles in the spring, the team may opt to take it slower with him and send him down to Triple-A, a level he bypassed in his ascent to the majors.

October 2011: Who better to describe his pitching arsenal than Pomeranz himself? Pomeranz's bread and butter is a spike curve that he can use to get hitters from each side of the plate. As a lefty with plus velocity and a plus breaking ball, the foundation is already in place for success. The key is his ability to use his change-up to keep hitters off balance. It's not pre-humidor Coors, but it is still a launching pad so he'll need to turn some of his flyball outs into groundball outs. Overall, a solid debut in professional baseball that points to a promising future if he continues to develop accordingly.

37: Carlos Martinez (formerly Carlos Matias)/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/9-21-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Control issues and poor performance in High-A in 2011, but strikes batters out at a high rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Martinez's fastball is arguably the best in the minors. The pitch has velocity and movement, but is thrown with effort. The effort required for him to pump out heaters leads many to believe he'll end up closing games, not starting them.

His secondary pitches remain, well, secondary by a wide margin. He throws both a curveball and a change-up. The curveball flashes plus, but the change-up is further behind and he'll occasionally throw it too hard. As long as he remains a starter, he'll rank this highly, as his ceiling is fronting a rotation. The fallback of closing games and piling up strikeouts out of the bullpen isn't the end of the world for those choosing to gamble on Martinez.

October 2011: Martinez is another example of scouting reports straying from future projection based on current statistical performance. He throws with easy velocity, according to Keith Law, and can hit triple digits on the radar gun. Guys who throw plus-plus velocity heaters that light up the radar gun are few and far between.

Even more exciting is that the pitch is far from straight and has natural cutting action, according to Baseball America. He ranked 18th on its Top-50 Midseason Prospect list, and fourth on Law's. In addition to his exceptional fastball he features a curveball and is developing a change-up. His poor walk rate and high ERA in High-A may allow a buying window on this youngster in dynasty leagues. Once the performance catches up to the stuff, or perhaps if it catches up, he'll be a tough player to pry away from an opposing owner.

38: Anthony Rizzo/1B/Chicago Cubs/8-8-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Had a breakout 2011 despite major league struggles. Mid-20s homer run totals projected.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Rizzo found himself on the move again this offseason. Then-Padres general manager Jed Hoyer made a big splash with them in 2010, sending Adrian Gonzalez to the Red Sox in a deal that involved acquiring Rizzo. One of his first moves in the same position with the Cubs was acquiring Rizzo yet again.

He had a breakout season in 2011, putting up huge numbers in the Pacific Coast League. Hitter friendly environment or not, a .331/.404/.652 line is impressive. In 413 plate appearances he hit 26 home runs as well. He struggled in 153 plate appearances in the majors, striking out often (30.1 percent strikeout rate), and failing to hit for power. In reality, he failed to hit at all. He showed excellent plate discipline, but was over-matched by big league pitching. Rizzo has excellent power, but Kevin Goldstein mentioned in his prospect write-up that it comes partly as a result of a pull-happy approach. At his best, Rizzo uses the whole field and lets his natural power play.

He should start the year in Triple-A, with Bryan LaHair opening the year as the Cubs starting first baseman. A summer promotion is highly likely. Trading Petco Park for Wrigley Field is a dream move for Rizzo. Petco Park is hell on left-handed power, while Wrigley Field has enhanced power production 11 percent over the last three years according to the Bill James Ballpark Index.

October 2011: Rizzo has had a huge season in the Pacific Coast League. Unfortunately, numbers in the PCL are inflated due to friendly hitting environments, so take the raw numbers with a spoonful of salt. Scouting reports aren't all glowing for Rizzo; there are questions about whether he can hit for both power and average. His desire to hit for pop has resulted in more strikeouts and a pull-happy approach.

Possibly a positive to take away from Rizzo's numbers is a dominance against right-handed pitching and struggles against left-handed pitchers (his same-handed counterparts). If it is simply a matter of needing more exposure and repetition against them, Rizzo could take another step forward in his development. The biggest knock against Rizzo may just be his home ballpark. Petco is hell on left-handed batters, which is unfortunate because it will lower the ceiling on his greatest fantasy skill.

Two years younger than Paul Goldschmidt, Rizzo would rank ahead of him if they played if their games in similar home ballparks. Alas, they do not.

39: Jacob Marisnick/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/3-30-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Projected to offer a bit of power, speed and some average. No one standout fantasy asset, but a contributor in all facets of the fantasy game.
Scouting notes: March 2012: His tools run the gamut, and began to translate into skills this past season. Marisnick showed some power, and he projects to hit more home runs as he matures. There are questions about just how high his home run ceiling is, though, because his swing is currently conducive to roping line drives and not clearing fences.

He has above average speed, and he put it to good use, stealing 37 bases in 45 chances. His sky high BABIP of .371 last year suggests his .320 average was probably a touch lucky. That said, above-average runners tend to have a higher than average BABIP, and line drives have the highest average of balls put in play.

Marisnick would rank higher if his breakout didn't come while repeating Low-A. He was still age-appropriate for the level, but his stock will soar if he even comes close to repeating his stats in High-A. It's also probable that if his stellar play continues, he'll see Double-A before the end of the year.

October 2011: Scouting reports loved Marisnick's tools coming into the season, but they didn't translate onto the field in 2010. This season saw him turn the corner and put them into good use on the field, and turn many of his detractors into believers. All his tools project to be average or better. If he develops a bit more home run power, he can leapfrog most of the outfielders in front of him.

40: Josh Bell/OF/Pittsburgh Pirates/8-12-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: 2011 Draftee out of high school. No forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Without his having played a professional game yet, there is little to add to Bell's scouting notes. He should begin his pro career in Low-A playing for West Virginia.

October 2011: Many considered Bell unsignable because he and his family wrote to all major league teams before the draft informing them he wanted to attend college at the University of Texas. Ultimately, the Pirates threw caution to the wind when the risk became minimal at the top of the second round, and the gamble paid off as he signed at the deadline.

Bell is a switch-hitter who most scouting reports describe as having been the best high school hitter in the draft. Scouts project him to hit for both average and power. He doesn't offer the same speed upside of Starling, but his chance of failure seems less than Starling's as he has succeeded frequently against the top high school competition available. Power that doesn't require selling out average isn't easy to find in fantasy leagues, making Bell's potential something to covet.

41: Eddie Rosario/OF-2B/Minnesota Twins/9-29-91/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: Power outburst in 2011. Projects to offer home runs at a solid clip, but poor walk rate is reflected in his low on-base percentage projection.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Rosario had a fine 2010, but nothing in his statistical profile foreshadowed his offensive explosion 2011. He crushed 21 home runs in 298 plate appearances at the Rookie League level. Put another way, he hit one home run in every 14.19 plate appearances. Comparatively, Mike Napoli hit one home run in every 14.4 plate appearances. Therein lies the problem with looking at stats without scouting reports.

Rosario isn't a hulking figure who projects to be a 30-plus home run hitter annually, but he does project to hit for above average power. He also runs well enough—17 stolen bases in 23 chances—to expect helpful stolen base totals in his big league future. He spent 2011 playing the outfield, but the Twins are transitioning him to second base. If he takes to the position change, and he continues to rake in full-season ball, he'll be a big mover on this list. Rosario will open the year in Low-A.

42: Zack Wheeler/SP/New York Mets/5-30-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projection not as good as the scouting reports and he needs to lower his walk rate.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Wheeler's walk rate improved by leaps and bounds after he joined the Mets. Matt Eddy of Baseball America reports the gains in his control were a result of reverting back to his high school mechanics in July. He already misses bats, leaving him wiggle room in the walk department, but if he maintains his control gains, he'll be an absolute monster. He'll open the year in Double-A, and is creeping ever closer to breaking Giants' fans hearts in the majors.

October 2011: The Mets strengthened their farm system at the trade deadline by shipping Carlos Beltran to the Giants in return for Wheeler. Since joining the Mets system his walk rate has taken a giant step forward, dropping from 4.81 BB/9 to 1.67 BB/9. His strikeout rate has remained elite, and is supported by plus fastball and developing curveball and change-up. Both of his secondary offerings lag behind his fastball, and while neither is a plus pitch at this moment, they both have flashed that type of potential.

Adam Foster of Project Prospect offered a scouting report in May on Wheeler, and while the write-up is solid, the most interesting part is the embedded video of each of his pitches. He still has to tackle the upper minors, but his first two seasons have gone well and shown promise.

43: James Paxton/SP/Seattle Mariners/11-6-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Needs to further refine his control, but he should be an asset in strikeouts and hover around 9.0 K/9.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Paxton's route to affiliated professional ball was winding. He declared for the 2009 draft, and was selected in the supplemental first round by the Blue Jays. He didn't agree to a contract, and planned to resume his college career at the University of Kentucky. Unfortunately, he lost his college eligibility due to being represented by an agent, Scott Boras, in his contract negotiatons. He spent 2010 pitching in an independent league, and was drafted in the fourth round of the 2010 draft by the Mariners. He didn't sign in time to make his affiliated professional ball debut in 2010, and instead impressed debuting in 2011.

Paxton is a large, 6-foot-4 and 220 pound, southpaw with a power arsenal. He throws his fastball in the low-to-mid-90s, and can reach back for 97 mph when he needs it. His repertoire also includes a plus curveball, and a change-up that made big strides last year. Paxton used that pitch mix to confound Low-A and Double-A hitters alike, striking them out at a 12.41 K/9 clip. His control needs work, though, it was better after his promotion from Low-A to Double-A. Paxton was a non-roster invitee to the Mariners' spring training camp, and a long shot to win a rotation spot. He should start the year in the upper minors with an in-season promotion to the majors probable.

44: Gary Brown/OF/San Francisco Giants/9-28-88/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Projects to steal around 20 bases with a solid average and a handful of home runs in the coming seasons.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Brown capped his big minor league season with a lackluster showing in the AFL. In 55 plate appearances he hit just .220/.278/.300 with only three extra base hits, none of which were home runs.

One of the knocks on Brown following his college career was that he didn't walk as much as one would like for a potential leadoff hitter to. His 7.2 percent walk rate in High-A was passable, and leads to some hope he'll develop the “old man” skill of working walks. Unfortunately, he reverted back to being unacceptably impatient in the AFL walking just one time.

A small sample size warning for his AFL work is in order, and it is important to understand he may have simply been exhausted after a long season. That said, summarily dismissing his poor play in the AFL is probably taking it too far. It was Brown's first exposure to advanced pitchers, and that knowledge should be tucked away in the back of one's mind. He's set to open the year at Double-A with Richmond. If everything goes according to plan, he'll be pressing for the Giants center field job by early 2013, and attempting to nail down the leadoff job as well.

October 2011: The Giants' 2010 first round pick played tremendously in his full season debut this year. The next step will be succeeding against upper minor league talent. He should be on the fast track to the majors, and if his tools fully develop could be a top-of-the-order hitter. He may not offer more than a handful of home runs (though Kevin Goldstein suggested in a recent podcast he could flirt with 20), but his speed is a clear 80 on the 20-80 scale and should allow him to be a big stolen base contributor (he stole 53 this year). He makes contact at a high rate, and punished the ball in the offensive-friendly Cal League, hinting at being a batting average contributor in fantasy as well.

45: Christian Yelich/OF/Florida Marlins/12-5-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Oliver sees a blend of moderate power and speed with a decent batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: With new scouting reports available on Yelich, I no longer can say “I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average,” as I do below. His speed is rated as average to slightly better, and his base running instincts are excellent. He has pop, but doesn't project to have elite power even after he fills out. However, he'll offer enough power to be an asset in home runs at peak maturity.

His swing lends itself to high batting averages, but he'll need to close the gap in his platoon split if he hopes to avoid being exploited late in games. Yelich hit a robust .341/.413/.531 against right-handed pitching, but stumbled against southpaws, hitting just .256/.337/.391. Given time, I expect he'll make the necessary adjustments. Yelich will open the year in High-A, and could finish it in Double-A.

October 2011: His hitting grades out as a plus, but his power is somewhat questionable. He may develop above-average game power, but that remains to be seen as he fills out and physically matures. He did hit 15 home runs in 461 at-bats in Single-A, which is promising. He also stole 32 bases, but I've yet to find a scouting report that describes his speed as better than average. He was caught only five times, so he may be able to get the most out of that tool with intelligent base running.

He should be able to reach base often because in addition to his plus hit tool, he walks frequently (55 walks). If he continues to steal bases in the upper minors, or his power takes a step up, he'll shoot up this prospect list.

46: Brett Jackson/OF/Chicago Cubs/8-2-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: .250s hitter with playable teens power and speed.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Jackson is one of those players who is able to get away with a low contact rate. He has enough power and speed to be a 20/20 guy, and is a good enough defender to remain in the lineup should he go through a dry spell due to his high strikeout rate. More than one quarter of his plate appearances at Double-A or higher (780 plate appearances) have resulted in strike three.

On the impressive side of the ledger, in those same 780 plate appearances he has walked 13.2 percent of the time. Those in leagues that count OBP should bump Jackson a bit higher up this list as he'll have more value there than in standard scoring formats. His on-base skills could help him eventually settle into the top third of the Cubs order. As a veteran of less than 200 Triple-A at-bats, Jackson will likely open the year in Triple-A. He should reach the majors over the summer.

October 2011: He doesn't have any jaw-dropping tools, but he's average to above average across the board. He's hit his way to Triple-A, and succeeded there in spite of a high strikeout rate that may pose problems in the majors. He can walk some, he can hit for some power and he can steal some bags. In a lot of ways, he resembles a Drew Stubbs-lite to me.

47: Jonathan Singleton/1B/Houston Astros/9-18-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Excellent hitter with low-20s home run power and stellar on-base percentages.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Singleton is the one minor league first baseman I believe has “near superstar,” potential. He ranks lower than fellow first base prospect Anthony Rizzo because he has yet to take an at-bat above the High-A level, and he's further from reaching his ceiling. Singleton draws walks like a grizzled vet, and has kept his strikeout rate in check for a developing slugger, though, it did spike to 27 percent as a member of the Astros organization.

His in-game power lags behind his raw batting practice strength, but it is expected the gap will close with experience. Singleton will open the year in Double-A as a 20-year-old, and won't turn 21 until September. If he were to spend all of 2012 in Double-A, and all of 2013 in Triple-A, it is possible Houston's first baseman of the future could get his first cup of Joe in September 2013.

October 2011: Singleton has played first base since the Astros acquired him at the trade deadline, but he played some outfield in the Phillies system before the trade. He's a big guy, but athletic enough that scouts think he could man left field. His power projects to be a plus, and could be a plus-plus tool in the future. Despite his young age, he has already shown the ability to draw walks. If he's a first baseman, his ranking is about right, but if he's developed as an outfielder and sticks, he should be ranked a bit higher.

48: Oscar Taveras/OF/St. Louis Cardinals/6-19-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Breakout 2011 leads to projections of near .300 averages as soon as 2015.
Scouting notes: March 2012: After he played the entire year in Low-A, where he swung a scorching hot stick, the Cardinals challenged Taveras, sending him to the AFL. Taveras proved the Cardinals' confidence wasn't misplaced, hitting .307/.312/.413 with one home run and five doubles in 77 plate appearances. He failed to walk even once, but his showing as a 19-year-old against advanced pitching was plenty encouraging. Taveras will probably begin the year in High-A, but I wouldn't be shocked if the Cardinals opened him in Double-A.

October 2011: He put up video game numbers in Single-A this year, but will be tested in the Arizona Fall League. He didn't appear high on most Cardinals prospect lists coming into the year, but should see his name move up this coming year. He would rank higher, but not all scouting reports are bullish on his future stock, and see his advanced approach for his age being the biggest reason he has been so successful, not outstanding developing tools.

Others believe his total package gives him a reasonably high offensive ceiling. Such widely divergent scouting reports makes him tough to peg. If his hitting and power develop to 60 level, he should be higher, but if they fall flat and sit closer to 40, he probably doesn't belong on the list at all. Watch his Arizona Fall League performance, and more importantly, his larger sample of performance moving up a level next year.

49: Yasmani Grandal/C/San Diego Padres/11-8-88/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Two good years with a 2011 MLE line of .265/.341/.425.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Grandal is no longer behind fellow prospect Devin Mesoraco. That's the positive. The negative is that instead of calling Great American Ballpark his home, that distinction is now bestowed upon Petco Park.

As a switch-hitter, he won't feel the full brunt of the power-crushing effects left-handed batters do. That said, most of his cuts will come as a left-handed batter, and that has to be taken into account when projecting his fantasy home run output. He displayed a sound approach at the dish in his first full professional season, and should continue to hit for a high average so long as that approach holds while moving up the professional ladder. He finished 2011 in Triple-A, and he'll begin 2012 there. I expect the Padres to take a look at him after rosters expand in September.

October 2011: Grandal's surface numbers are more impressive than Wilin Rosario's, but the ceiling isn't described as being as high by most scouting outlets. He's also behind Mesoraco, further hurting his ranking. That said, he's a switch-hitting catcher with the potential for plus offensive contributions. Catchers have a wide variety of skills they need to hone in the minors, so they develop at different speeds. He may not take the same leap fellow Reds prospect Mesoraco made because of lesser tools, but even a slight jump in production would be reason for excitement.

50: Anthony Gose/OF/Toronto Blue Jays/8-10-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Monster stolen base projection with double-digit power, but ugly batting averages.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Gose's play in the AFL was essentially an extension of his play in Double-A all year. His .250/.348/.433 slash in the AFL was a near carbon copy of his .253/.349/.415 with New Hampshire in the Eastern League.

He understands the value of a walk, but struggles mightily to make contact. After inefficiency stealing bases in 2010, he became a great base stealer in 2011. While hitting is a completely different skill, if his growth as a base runner foreshadows his ability to be coached elsewhere, Gose could really turn the corner in 2012. He's primed to enjoy the friendly confines of the Pacific Coast League, but is stuck behind a crowded outfield on the parent club.

October 2011: Forecast doesn't like his defense, but most scouting grades suggest his best attributes are his range and arm in the outfield, and his speed. His hitting is what comes under the most scrutiny. Some reports suggest he'll be able to make enough contact to take advantage of his speed and post a decent average. Others see a guy who strikes out too frequently to hit for average.

He offers some pop, and is capable of drawing walks. If he's can get on base at even a moderate rate in the majors, he can be an impact stolen base threat with better than negligible power. If he isn't able to cut back on the strikeouts, he'll be a defensive-minded center fielder or fourth outfielder. Either of those scenarios would make him a fantasy non-contributor. The ceiling may not be high enough to offset the floor and justify this ranking. I'm buying in based on the leap he was able to make in stolen base success, and hoping that's evidence of him being coachable.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 5:44am

Second look: Top 20 fantasy second basemen for 2012

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

TIER 1
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1         Ian Kinsler          TEX       .255/.344/.437
2         Robinson Cano        NYY       .305/.352/.507
3         Dustin Pedroia       BOS       .292/.367/.451

TIER 2
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
4         Ben Zobrist          TBR       .257/.350/.423
5         Brandon Phillips     CIN       .282/.333/.434
6         Chase Utley          PHI       .271/.366/446

TIER 3
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
7         Dan Uggla            ATL       .256/.336/.471
8         Rickie Weeks         MIL       .269/.351/.458
9         Michael Young        TEX       .302/.349/.447
11        Michael Cuddyer      COL       .288/.349/.482
10        Howie Kendrick       ANA       .277/.319/.419

TIER 4
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
12        Jason Kipnis         CLE       .257/.322/.430
13        Danny Espinosa       WAS       .239/.310/.418

TIER 5
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
14        Kelly Johnson        TOR       .241/.319/.431
15        Aaron Hill           ARI       .247/.299/.395
16        Jemile Weeks         OAK       .263/.316/.369
17        Dustin Ackley        SEA       .263/.350/.402
18        Neil Walker          PIT       .271/.326/.424

TIER 6
19        Ryan Roberts         ARI       .245/.326/.397
20        Gordon Beckham       CHW       .248/.311/.383

Tier 1

The guys in this tier are pretty self explanatory, but the ordering might seem a bit goofy to you at first look. Ian Kinsler as the number one first baseman? Am I serious?

In case you didn't read this article I wrote last year comparing the 2011 campaigns of Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano, here is the relevant chart the article produced:

Using some mathematical "reverse engineering," here are how Cano and Kinsler's BABIP-luck neutralized 2011 stats stack up using their career BABIPs:

Name	Team	AB	H	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	ZAVG	ZHR	ZSB	ZR	ZRBI	ZSUM
Robinson Cano	Yankees	577	177.0	26	96.4	111.5	8	0.307	1.1	2.1	0.2	2.5	3.1	9.0
Ian Kinsler	Rangers	569	162.7	28	117.2	78.1	27.1	0.286	0.6	2.4	2.5	3.4	1.7	10.5

As I noted in the article, "when you strip out Kinsler's poor BABIP luck, whether you use his career BABIP or 2011 xBABIP, he should have been a superior fantasy producer [to Robinson Cano]."

Enough said? Pedroia's the perpetual safe pick (not a whole lot of upside in any category, but not a lot of downside either with across the board contribution (although I suppose injuries could always be an issue).

Save for ranking Kinsler number one overall, you might notice that the rest of my second basemen rankings are pretty conservative.

Tier 2

Tier two exclusively consists of four-category contributors. Zobrist arguably has the lowest ceiling of the group (an argument I would not make, mind you), but he's also got the highest floor of the group around .270/17/17. 2010, and not 2009/2011, was the fluke for this totally legit player with useful positional flexibility.

Phillips is a guy I never seem to like, but always impresses. Like Zobrist, he has high-teens power/speed upside, but with better batting average prospects in an arguably better lineup (more runs and RBIs). So why is Phillips rated lower? It's a matter of age. At age 31, there's nowhere to go but down for Phillips (who, to be frank, does not have the most age-able skill set), and there's plenty of risk that Phillips "only" turns in a 2010-like campaign in 2012. Phillips does not walk a whole lot, so his stolen base totals will likely hinge upon how well his bat holds up and whether his speed score drops for what would be the fifth consecutive season.

Chase Utley, like Phillips, offers 35 home runs plus stolen bases upside, but he's been a perpetual injury risk the past two seasons who hasn't hit for an elite batting average for several seasons. Still, over a mere 103 games last year, Utley managed to produce 25 home runs plus stolen bases—which is more than plenty of second basemen did last year.

Utley is still a very productive player, but he's no longer the first-round talent he once was. Utley is immensely valuable, though, in leagues that use net stolen bases (especially ones that use OBP). Over the past three seasons (374 games played), Utley has been thrown out only twice in his past 50 attempts.

Tier 3

Tier 3 consists of guys who arguably have enough upside to go toe for toe with the guys in tier 2, but also have enough risk/downside to merit keep them in a separate tier.

Dan Uggla really exploded after starting the first two months of the season doing nothing. He's never going to hit for average, but his true batting average talent line at this point in his career is still much closer to .260 than it is to .230. Uggla may not offer much speed, but he makes up for it with plenty of pop. He should approach the 90 RBI mark this season as well.

Now that he's finally broken out, the big question is whether Rickie Weeks can stay healthy. If so, .270 with 20-plus homers and 10-plus steals is in the cards with plenty of runs scored to boot (assuming No. 1/2 lineup slotting). If not, who the heck knows what he'll manage to do. I wouldn't bank on (that is, pay for) more than 500 plate appearances this year.

I really don't like Michael Young, maybe because he's primarily a batting average guy (a category I hate to gamble on) with modest pop and even more modest speed offerings. Still, he bats in the middle of the Rangers' potent lineup and should nab you at least 20 home runs plus stolen bases. Young always ends up producing ahead of where I rank him through pessimistic "negging," but I am finally caving in and ranking Young where he's historically produced.

Cuddyer is not a real sexy player, but like Young, he tends to get the job done: 20 home run power, five-plus stolen bases and batting average prospects toward the upper end of the .280s make Cuddyer, though an aging player, an attractive one at second base. The move to Coors should help keep him plenty productive despite any expected regression from his 2011 production line.

Howie Kendrick is essentially Michael Young with 10 more stolen bases and 20 to 30 fewer points of batting average. I might prefer Kendrick's balanced production ahead of Michael Young, but I promised myself to stop undervaluing the value of batting average in 2012.

Tier 4

Two guys with lots of upside, minimal track record, and plenty of downside occupy Tier 4. Kipnis could do what most expect Howie Kendrick to do: hit .270, blast 15 or so home runs and steal double-digit bases. But he also could do none of that, and hit a buck fifty or worse. To me, Kipnis offers more immediate upside than Ackley. Just don't expect Kipnis to continue last year's 36-game pace.

I have written plenty about Espinosa in the past here, here, and here. The long and short, however, is that Espinosa is essentially a Dan Uggla-type with more balance to his home runs plus stolen bases contributions and fewer runs plus RBI upside. If Espinosa continues to cut down on the strikeouts and swings-and-misses, he could potentially develop into a .250-.260 hitter. And who wouldn't pay for .250/20-plus homers/15-plus steals out of the second base position?

Tier 5

Let's start the tier 5 analysis with a legitimate question: What is the difference between Aaron Hill and Kelly Johnson? In theory, both are 20-home run second basemen with moderately poor batting average upside and decent speed contributions. Both seem to disappoint despite all their potential, and they were traded for each other last year. They're both also 30 years old this season. I can't really recommend one over the other, but if you forced me to pick I'd have to side with Johnson's more consistent power tool in a still-home run friendly park.

Jermile Weeks has 30+ stolen base upside and could could be a real stolen base machine if his major league walk rate approaches his minor league rate. Despite a relatively low strikeout rate and a strong line drive showing last year, I do not view Weeks as a legitimate .300 hitter without luck on his side. He hits the ball in the air too often for a guy with an isolated power under .120. But .280 is certainly plausible. Weeks is a very strong middle infield option for 2012, and is the best bet outside the top 12 second basemen to end up top 12 by the end of the season.

Ackley should develop into a useful, potentially All-Star caliber, second basemen in his prime years, but the Mariners have to hate Yuniesky Betancourt for "single handedly" costing them Stephen Strasburg. I see Ackley's ceiling as Kelly Johnson at his best, but Ackley's minor league numbers are decently underwhelming. A .270 batting average with double digit home runs and stolen bases is in the cards for the athletic second baseman, however.

While I do not have anything particularly negative to say about Neil Walker, I likewise have little praise for him either. He has the lowest upside of anyone in this tier, but should be the best bet of this group to hit each of .270, 10 home runs and 10 stolen bases.

Tier 6

Ryan Roberts does a little bit of everything with a poor batting average but positional flexibility to boot. He offers double-digit home run and stolen base upside, but I doubt he'll crack .260 next season.

Will Gordon Beckham stop teasing us with flashes of brilliance and decide, once and for all, if he's going to be fantasy-relevant? This is the last year I am going to rank him, without a whole lot of justification beyond my gut, unless he finally produces. I still cannot believe that this is the same player who was the centerpiece of a trade I made for David Wright before the 2010 season. Beckham has Kelly Johnson-like upside, but immense downside. Consider him a high-risk, modest-reward late-round, AL-only flier at best right now.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:11am

Thursday, March 15, 2012

I’ve got my eyes on you…

Firstly, disregard the creepy title—I am not watching you literally. Hell, I’m not even referring to you. It’s my original rendering of the tired “Love/Hate” titling. And for what it’s worth, I’m only in the business of loving in this column.

Secondly, let me explain myself a bit here. I, like every fantasy analyst in the world, have a list of players I like to breakout, outperform expectations, steal a job, jump a tier, etc. I am conscious that once you see plenty of “Sleeper” and “Love” lists, you’ll either knowingly or unknowingly catch on to names that appear regularly. A Bryan LaHair, let’s say. So, at risk of throwing 10 or so names at you that you’ve already heard, targeted, and perhaps drafted, I will divulge my favorite players, some sleepier than even I would like.

But, let’s see if I can’t spin it a little differently. I’ll give three reasons for each players—whether they be a managerial change, a home ballpark alteration, a minor league breakout or what not, I’ll stick to three for each—in hopes that it sticks in your head a little better than a whole lot of stats thrown at you. Which isn’t to say I won’t throw stats at you. And these guys widely vary in their draft-ability; maybe they’ll fit in certain formats, or maybe they’re a one-size-fits-all.

So, you ready? My eyes are on…

Frank Francisco because he’s a cheap closer who switched leagues and secretly has a top-notch strikeout rate.

Yes, Frankie has never topped a quarter-century in the saves category, and yes, he’s as injury prone as anyone, but his strikeout rate – his personal low in three years – was among the top 40 in the league for qualified relievers. He bested Sean Marshall, Daniel Bard, Mike Adams, Joakim Soria, Drew Storen, Brian Wilson, Mariano Rivera, and Jose Valverde, for illustration’s sake, and while his home-run rate gives me a bit of pause, a switch to the NL could offset the new fences in Citi Field. He’s currently the 35th reliever off the board per Mock Draft Central, meaning Mark Melancon and noted set-up man Francisco Rodriguez are being taken ahead of a much worthier Francisco. Oh, the disgust!

Mike Moustakas because he broke out in September like his top-prospect status dictated he would, and because third base is shallow.

Let me pose a question. What’s a realistic expectation for Kevin Youkilis? 22 homers and 86 runs batted in, coupled with a .278 batting average? Now tell me what you think Mike Moustakas can do. How about 18 homers and 81 runs batted in with a .264 batting average, the Oliver projection. Factor in the injury risks—which is to say Youk’s injury risks—and the average draft positions—Youk’s is 85 and Moustakas’ is 218—and you have yourself a steal. Moose broke out to a fine tune in September and has real power upside (high line-drive rate, mid-range fly-ball percentage) without high strikeout tendencies, leading me to believe his batting average upside is higher even. I’d be thrilled to draft him in the 200s.

Marco Scutaro because he moved to a hitter’s heaven and has a full-time gig at a top-heavy position.

Say you miss on Troy Tulowitzki in the first round. Say you then miss on Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes in the second round. By the time the fourth round rolls through, Elvis Andrus and Starlin Castro are off the board. If your faith isn’t in Asdrubal Cabrera, then why not wait ‘till the last round to snag Marco Scutaro for a buck? Scutaro has double-digit steal and homer upside, especially in the high-flying Coors Field, and can challenge for .300 like he did last year. I’d highly advise him even in mixed leagues.

Mat Gamel because he’s finally getting his chance to shine after another monster showing at Triple-A and because he qualifies at a scarce position in some leagues.

Mat Gamel is now a first baseman, but carries third base eligibility in ESPN leagues still. Mat Gamel has 25 home run power. Mat Gamel finally has a starting gig. Read more about him here, and do yourself a favor and spend one of your last dollars on him.

Cory Luebke because he has elite ratio stats and the friendliest of home parks yet is still masquerading as a fourth starter in many drafts.

Luebke broke out big time last year; striking out nearly 10 per nine innings, while putting up elite triple-slash numbers and equally elite WHIP numbers. So why isn’t he a top 20 pitcher? The Padres are inept on offense, as you may well know. Luebke’s strikeout rate is a bit suspect, as it far outpaced his minor league totals, so a dip will likely be in order. And perhaps there’s a little bit of bias because he wasn’t a prospect with much pedigree and didn’t impress in his first major league cup of tea. Sleeping on Luebke would be a mistake—and though he is among the first 40 pitchers taken… barely—he could serve as a number two pitcher on a perfectly fine pitching staff. After all, his fastball was fifth in value among pitchers with 100+ innings, and his slider was a plus pitch as well.

Bryan LaHair because he can be had for a buck despite his minor-league home run rampage that led to a starting gig in 2012.

LaHair nearly hit 40 homers in Triple-A last year, and the 29-year-old journeyman thusly enters 2012 with the starting first base gig on the Cubs. Though I see Anthony Rizzo as legitimate competition midseason for playing time, the fact of the matter is that LaHair will have several months, in my estimation, to prove his worth on the major league club. He was 55 percent better than league average in Triple-A, and has shown a good eye at the dish throughout his minor-league journey. 20 home runs is a legitimate expectation, and considering the lack of risk associated with a late-round pick on LaHair, he seems like a perfect lottery ticket.

Shawn Tolleson because he registered a sub-zero FIP in A ball and is on the cusp of the majors, armed with elite strikeout potential in the late innings.

Sean who? Hear me out: I can imagine at least one scenario in which Kenley Jansen is injured as per usual, while Javy Guerra chokes like his minor-league numbers suggest he one day should/will, and the Dodgers are left with no clear-cut ninth inning option. Enter Shawn Tolleson in my hypothetical, he whose strikeout-per-nine has been between 11.1 and 19.8 in what is a storied minor league career. He might start the year at Triple-A or in the Dodgers bullpen, but either way, he could end up with a large role by season’s end, and perhaps could vulture a couple of saves in a dreamy scenario. Deep NL-Only owners take note, and keeper leaguers do the same. He could be a sneaky value pick in at least one category.

Nolan Arenado because he will occupy a scarce position in a fun home park after a likely major league promotion by midsummer and notable minor league track record of mashing.

A power hitting third base prospect—of top 10 status, no less—playing half his games at Coors Field. How’s that for a hook? Arenado has yet to play at Double-A yet is considered a near-lock for a summer call-up, which is a testament both to Colorado’s lack of depth at the hot corner as well as the kid’s raw talent. His Major League Equivalency projections, courtesy of The Hardball Times’ Oliver forecasts, have Arenado down for 19 homers and 74 runs batted in in 469 at-bats, and he has yet to play an at-bat in the high minors. Talent is on his side, management is on his side, and his form of competition is Casey Blake, who is old and injury-prone. Look for Arenado sometime around June or July unless the strugglin’ is mighty in Double-A, which is an unlikely scenario in my estimation.

Henderson Alvarez because he’ll cost a mere dollar, despite his pinpoint control and impressive cup of coffee in the majors last year.

A 5.0 K/BB is impressive, but such a ratio that features a 5.65 K/9 is all the more impressive. Alvarez surrendered a mere eight walks in his 63 innings last year, while mixing a 93 mile per hour fastball, a slider nearly 10 miles per hour slower, and a sneaky good changeup. The projection systems don’t like Alvarez because he has little minor league dominance—rather, he has his trademark top notch K/BB ratio. His swinging strike percentage is due for a jump, though, and his home run rate is due for a drop, so a 3.50 ERA is a realistic projection. Match that with his 1.13 WHIP last year and you have a mid-range starter, snagged for a single Washington.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:07am

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Solve for ADP pt. 2

A few weeks ago, I published a column that took generally reasonable, though arbitrary projections for various players and ran those numbers through baseballmonster’s player rate data for last year to get a feel for what those players would have to do to live up to their ADP. A more thorough explanation of the process is included in the original column.

That column got a good reaction, and some of you specifically asked me to do some more of these. So, here’s another mini-round of Solving for ADP, taking three more players whose ADPs jumped out at me as intriguing for one reason or another.

Giancarlo Stanton
ADP: 25

Okay, so what if I just wanted to type “Giancarlo Stanton?” Pretty big things are expected of this young man, and I wouldn’t claim the following hypothetical season to be among the most aggressive projections I’ve seen.

R:90
HR: 37
RBI: 103
SB: 4
AVG: .264

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 21

Many of us at THT are high on Stanton. I’m not the highest, but I am aboard the bandwagon. Still, when I saw an ADP of 25, I was quite curious as to how much profit and loss potential there would be at that price. Well, it appears that if you love Stanton, there’s still a legitimate chance at profit at the 25th overall pick.

If Stanton steps even further forward in the power department, or is the beneficiary of some modest BABIP luck, there’s top 15 potential to be tapped, top 12 if he can swipe double digit bases, which many young players are able to do just by virtue of being young.

Stanton certainly would be on my radar in the mid 20s. In fact, if you’re among those of us who generally stay away from the super elite starting pitchers, he might start popping up into your sights in the late teens.

Starlin Castro
ADP: 42

Castro strikes me as a medium fish in a small pond. Let’s see what the following season would net you.

R:85
HR: 10
RBI: 68
SB: 23
AVG: .300

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 47

There are two ways to interpret the data above. If you want to focus on the positional value aspect of Castro’s fourth-rounder candidacy, you can note that shortstop is a barren wasteland and getting the consensus fourth-best player at his position in the fourth round isn’t a bad deal.

The fact that a fairly standard season would return about 90 cents on your dollar while earning you a sound positional advantage over a number of teams in your league paints a picture of Castro as a somewhat safe investment around his ADP.

That doesn’t happen to be the camp to which I belong. I tend to think Castro is being overdrafted. I want production over “value” early in the draft. I’d rather invest highly in one of the Big Three shortstops, or wait for the last player in the Castro, Rollins, Cabrera, Andrus (and maybe Jeter) tier. Basically, Castro projects to be the first player from the second tier at his position to be drafted, and that’s a pick I try to avoid making. I just don’t see the potential to profit from this pick.

It should be mentioned that there’s a minority out there who believe Castro will have a bit of a power breakout this season. This would be the key to Castro turning a positive return on his ADP. If you think 16–18 homers is in the cards for Castro, then that changes his projected value, and maybe you should take the plunge. With 40 combined steals and homers, he would separate himself a bit further from the others in his tier and stand alone between the Tulos and and Hanleys and the Cabreras and Andruses.

On another note, while it wouldn’t come the same way, it’s possible that Dee Gordon nets similar overall value, by basically being Michael Bourn as a shortstop.

Alex Rodriguez
ADP: 58

Has the A-Rod backlash jumped the shark? It’s hard to project a season for A-Rod, given that he’s been unable to stay healthy the last several seasons. Still, the counting numbers tally prolifically when he’s on the field. How about something like this?

R:78
HR: 27
RBI: 80
SB: 6
AVG: .268

2010 Equivalent overall rank: 53

Perhaps the A-Rod hate has gone too far. There are two things about the Rodriguez equation that I like from a fantasy investment perspective. The first thing to like is that if he plays a full season, you get massive value from this pick. He’s no longer an MVP candidate, but as far as I can tell, Rodriguez probably is a good bet to produce similarly to Mark Teixeira in a full season’s worth of at-bats.

The other side of the equation is that A-Rod, if he were to miss time, is likely to miss consecutive chunks of games as opposed to suffering nagging injuries. That DNP profile is easier to manage, as weekly-lineup-settings leaguers have certainty, and all A-Rod owners can pick up a decent player off waivers and plug him into their lineups for a week or two at a time.

While A-Rod may or may not return his ADP value, he will outproduce his ADP in per-game production, which means that if you spend a late-round pick, or a dollar or two, on a contingency plan, you should probably be able to eke out a profit from your investment in the third base position if you select in A-Rod.

That is not to say Rodriguez is the only value to be had at the position. Aramis Ramirez, Pablo Sandoval, and Kevin Youkilis are all being drafted after A-Rod and have their own appealing upsides, as well.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:11am

Second look: Top 30 fantasy first basemen for 2012

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

Tier 1
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1         Albert Pujols        ANA       .307/.393/.578
2         Miguel Cabrera       DET       .327/.415/.564
3         Joey Votto           CIN       .314/.412/.548
4         Adrian Gonzalez      BOS       .320/.406/.550

Tier 2
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
5         Prince Fielder       DET       .290/.402/.520
6         Mark Teixeira        NYY       .255/.349/.479
7         Paul Konerko         CHW       .285/.364/.498
8         Mike Napoli          TEX       .272/.355/.519

Tier 3
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
9         Eric Hosmer          KCR       .292/.348/.457
10        Michael Morse        WAS       .287/.344/.493
11        Paul Goldschmidt     ARI       .272/.347/.523
12        Pablo Sandoval       SFG       .300/.351/.498

Tier 4
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
13        Billy Butler         KCR       .298/.365/.464
14        Michael Young        TEX       .302/.349/.447
15        Lance Berkman        STL       .270/.380/.459
16        Carlos Santana       CLE       .248/.362/.451
17        Ike Davis            NYM       .271/.351/.462

Tier 5
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
18        Joe Mauer            MIN       .313/.385/.458
19        Kevin Youkilis       BOS       .278/.382/.488
20        Adam Dunn            CHW       .226/.343/.445
21        Bryan LaHair         CHC       .267/.338/.501

Tier 6
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
22        Kendrys Morales      ANA       .291/.337/.501
23        Michael Cuddyer      COL       .288/.349/.482
24        Freddie Freeman      ATL       .281/.343/.450
25        Adam Lind            TOR       .257/.309/.451

Tier 7
Rank      Player Name          Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
26        Mark Reynolds        BAL       .226/.326/.482
27        Mark Trumbo          ANA       .250/.295/.440
28        Lucas Duda           NYM       .267/.346/.455
29        Carlos Pena          TBR       .214/.338/.436
30        Ryan Howard          PHI       .269/.350/.509

Tier 1

This tier goes without explanation. Albert Pujols and Joey Votto are five-category studs, offering .300/30/100/100/5 or more. Miguel Cabrera and Adrian Gonzalez, on the other hand, offer bankable elite four-category production. Everyone in this tier should at least reach the .300/30/100/100 mark this season, though Votto probably has the "least" power of the group (which he more than makes up for with stolen-base upside). If you get someone in this tier, you're absolutely golden.

Tier 2

Tier two features some pretty productive names, but there's either a flaw or question looming around each player. Prince Fielder has legitimate power and is in a pretty strong lineup, but how much better is batting around Cabrera than Ryan Braun when you're moving to an arguably harder division in a less hitter-friendly park? Fielder's batting average has always been a wild card, and he does not steal bases.

Fielder is a guaranteed 30/100/100 player with elite production, but the question of whether he'll be a three- or four-category guy this year is what keeps him outside the top tier, which is reserved for the guaranteed four/five category guys.

During his three seasons as a Yankee, Mark Teixeira has 111 home runs, 341 RBIs and 306 runs scored. Like Fielder, he's almost guaranteed elite three-category production. Also like Fielder as well, he does not really steal (though it is worth noting that Tex amassed four stolen bases last season). But where Fielder has batted .299 in two of the past three seasons (bookmarking a .261 batting average campaign), Tex has seen his batting average trend in the wrong direction over the past four seasons, from .308 in 2008 to .292 in 2009 to .256 in 2010 to .248 in 2011.

Tex is now 32, so how much "rebound" we can expect from his batting average is questionable at its most optimistic. Last year's .239 BABIP was a career-low mark that will likely see some regression, and his xBABIP last season was close to .300, but older players do not run as well as the "league average" and Teixeira is one of the slower baserunners in baseball (meaning the likelihood he "underperforms" his xBABIP is high). I think he should hit around .270 next year, but the days of Tex as a four-category elite first baseman are over.

Paul Konerko is patently underrated. Over the past two years, he's hit .300/30/100, and in six of the past eight seasons he's hit 30 or more home runs. In the other two seasons, 2008 and 2009, he hit 28 and 22. And in '08, when he only hit 22, injuries limited Konerko to 122 games.

A career .282 hitter, Konerko is one of the hard-to-find guys who can hit for power without killing your batting average. I still do not buy his late-career resurgence as a "high average" hitter, but the rest is totally legit.

Oliver sees Konerko hitting .285/.364/.498 this season with just under 30 home runs and close to 100 RBI. That seems right on the money. The loss of Quentin in the lineup might affect Konerko's RBI and run totals, but an expected rebound from Dunn and Rios (though how much both with improve is questionable) should at least offset that. Konerko is a rock of three-category production with strong runs score performance, as well.

First and foremost, we need to note that if you draft Mike Napoli, you sure as heck are not going to use him as your first baseman (the same is true about Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana and, if he gets first baseman eligibility, Buster Posey as well, all of whom I will skip in my subsequent tier analysis). Still, he qualifies for the position, and assuming he finally gets regular full-time playing time, Napoli should be about as valuable as Konerko.

Tier 3

Tier three consists of the three-category guys with plenty of upside but no real "bankability." A .290+ campaign with 25-home run upside out of the middle of the order makes Eric Hosmer an intriguing option, but that's really the upside, and there's no real track record here. Downside should be Billy Butler-like power numbers and an above-average (.280-something) batting average. Hosmer could be the next Votto in a few years. Until then, he has .300/20-25/5-10 upside, which is rare enough for a first baseman.

Michael Morse was one of my trendy early-season sleeper picks last year, and he really broke out in a big way after a questionable start to the season when Adam LaRoche went down with an injury. Morse, like Hosmer, has the ability to hit for power and average. There's no stolen-base upside here, however, which is why Morse is ranked below Hosmer despite having a little more power upside in a slightly better lineup.

You might think I am overrating Paul Goldschmidt, but I'm worried about underrating him by putting him just outside the top ten. Goldilocks won't hit for a high average (but he should be able to hit for a respectable enough average (.270?)), but he is the most likely player outside the first tier to reach 30 home runs and 10 stolen bases this season.

Goldschmidt's power is absolutely legit, and he'll get middle-of-the-order-slotting. In 2011, he stole a combined 13 bases between Double-A and the major leaues, and I have an unproven theory that rookies tend to run more to "add to their value" and show their team that they deserve to stick. That's not to say Goldschmidt necessarily will steal double digit bases this season, but I am absolutely buying Oliver's forecast of a .270+/30+/5/100+ season.

Pablo Sandoval's weight regain heading into spring training worries me. Should I look at 2011 and 2009, or should I be concerned about 2010? You'll notice I'm cautious in my ranking of him in the third basemen rankings as well. I like Fat Panda in theory, but when he's not in shape, I do not know what to expect.

Tier 4

Butler showed more of the "power upside" he was once touted to have, though playing in Kaufman Stadium will always limit Butler's home run upside potential. With an upgraded offense due to the infusion of Moustakas and Hosmer, Butler should be able to reach the 180 R+RBI plateau this year. And 22 home runs with a .300 batting average is underrated production. Another couple of stolen bases would be nice as well, but don't expect it.

Michael Young is a player that I want, with all my heart, to rank lower, but I just can't. First basemen with teens home run power upside are so boring, but Young has the potential to hit for a +.300 batting average with five-to-10 stolen bases out of the middle of one of baseball's best lineups, which makes 190 R+RBI very likely.

Every year I hate on Matt Cain and Young, and every year, they do more than I claim they will. Maybe this year—the year I finally rank them where everyone else does—will be the year they prove my gut right. Alas, assuming Young can repeat his 2010-2011 performance, he's a top-flight, albeit non-traditional, first-base option.

Lance Berkman had a big bounceback campaign last year, but he tapered off in a big way in the second half last season.

Ike Davis' Valley Fever worries me. The fungal infection absolutely derailed the career of Conor Jackson. But Davis was only technically diagnosed with Valley Fever symptoms and is being treated as if he has the illness. The Mets are being quite cautious and, from what I have read, it seems the Mets caught whatever it is Davis has very early on, which makes successful treatment without the horrible derailing effects that much more likely.

Though I wish him the best and healthiest recovery, this makes Davis a wild card. Consider Davis a high-risk, high-reward draft pick at this point. He has .280 batting average, 25-plus home run potential and would get middle-of-the-order slotting if healthy. His upside is too good too ignore. If you draft Davis, however, you absolutely need to draft a handcuff like Lucas Duda or a potential replacement like Bryan LaHair.

You're not drafting Carlos Santana to be your first baseman. And if you do, trade him to someone who needs a catcher.

Tier 5

You're not drafting Joe Mauer to be your first baseman. And if you do, trade him to someone who needs a catcher.

This might seem like a low ranking for Kevin Youkilis, but I just don't trust him to stay healthy. Adam Dunn, on the flip side, might seem ranked a little high given his Carlos Pena-like outlook for 2012. Maybe I am putting too much stock in the effects of his appendectomy, but I think Dunn can at least perform at the .230-batting average, 30-home run, 80-plus-RBI level next year with the potential to return to his pre-2011 form (which would make him much more valuable than Mark Reynolds).

And then there's Bryan LaHair, from whom I expect a major breakout this year. Unlike most Cubs prospects (largely because they weren't the organization that drafted him), LaHair takes a walk. Like a lot of Cubs prospects, unfortunately, he's old for his level. But that doesn't mean he can't be productive.

PCL numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt, but LaHair did lead the league with 38 homers. He had another two, in 70 at bats, with the Cubs in addition to a .220 ISO in a brief 20-game major-league stint. Call me overly optimistic, but despite the high strikeout rate, LaHair is legitimately capable of a Goldschmidt-like season without the stolen-base upside.

LaHair's past three season MLEs are pretty strong and trending upwards (.769 OPS in 2009, .806 OPS in 2010, and .910 OPS in 2011). I think he's pretty capable of the .267 batting average, 25-20 home runs per 600 plate appearances, and 90 RBI that Oliver forecasts for him.

I only projected LaHair for 311 plate appearances this year because I am uncertain of what happens with Anthony Rizzo and Alfonso Soriano down the stretch. As you might have noticed, the Cubs have Rizzo and Brett Jackson coming up quickly with Marlon Byrd penciled in to center field in the last year of his contract, David DeJesus comfortably plopped in right for a couple of seasons, and Soriano entenched in the left-field spot with one of baseball's most bloated contracts.

Because of this logjam, it's likely Jackson won't see full-time/regular playing time in the outfield until 2013 because, even if the Cubs manage to move Soriano, Rizzo is likely to push LaHair to left field (or get traded). LaHair will probably get full time playing time in 2012 as either the Cubs' first baseman, right fielder or another team's first baseman or designated hitter around the trade deadline—assuming he produces this year.

LaHair is a medium-risk, high-reward play for 2012. I just couldn't justify putting him in the top 20 without being called too much of a homer (especially when you see where I have ranked Ian Stewart among third basemen for 2012).

Tier 6

Kendrys Morales is pretty risky since he ha almost two years of rust on him and is only now just starting to run the bases after one of the flukiest injuries in baseball history. Still, I think he's less of a risk for 2012 than Justin Morneau was heading into 2011, for what that's worth.

If healthy and not too rusty, Morales certainly has plenty of fantasy relevance as a 20-plus home run capable hitter with a moderately useful batting average potential. Plus, the addition of some guy named "Albert" can't hurt R/RBI potential (though it does create a positional logjam).

Michael Cuddyer seems to disappoint every other year, so maybe this is just a baselesly low ranking. A 15-20 home run capable hitter with five-plus stolen bases is certainly valuable, but but unless Cuddyer can hit above .289, he'll just be a two-category guy with modest other-category offerings, at best. The move to Coors certainly legitimizes his likelihood to repeat 20 home runs next season. Cuddyer's real fantasy tool is his positional flexibility.

Call me overly bearish on Freddie Freeman, but I just don't see him as anything more than a 2007-2011 Derrek Lee type: 20-ish home run power, low/mid-.280s batting average, and maybe a few stolen bases. The Braves' offense is not fearsome enough to even bank 85 RBI with a Freeman pick. He's a solid late-round flier corner infielder, but I wouldn't want him as my starting first baseman.

Adam Lind: feast or famine? He started out the 2011 season hot and seemingly returned to form, but then he fizzled out. Lind's 20-25 home run power is still there, but the days of hoping for an elite batting average too are likely behind us. He offers minimal speed but good lineup slotting. Lind can give you a .250 batting average, maybe 23 home runs and 90 runs batted in as a corner infielder or utility option for 2012.

Tier 7

Mark Reynolds' upside is 30-something home runs with a horrible batting average. That's Carlos Pena with a little more power and positional flexibility. You're probably using Reynolds as your third baseman before your first baseman, however. The Orioles aren't going anywhere anytime soon, so Reynolds is pretty much a lock to get his playing time as long as he's hitting above .210.

Assuming he gets his playing time, and assuming you don't play in an on-base league, Mark Trumbo is a solid low-average, high-power producer as a corner infielder, and he's third-base eligible. The Angels offense is pretty potent, so Trumbo should get plenty of RBI opportunities.

Lucas Duda is the mandatory handcuff for whomever drafts Ike Davis, but Duda has 20-plus home run power with decent batting average skills if he can just find regular playing time.

Carlos Pena is what he is. A 25-plus home run guy who struggles to hit .230. He's the epitome of cheap power and has a lot more use in on-base percentage leagues.

I do not expect Ryan Howard to play in the majors until July. But half a season of 15-home run power with a .250 batting average and above-average RBI production, when paired with a Duda type or some other fantasy league-average first baseman for the first three months could collectively result in top-20 production. Just don't overpay for Howards' services at draft day just to stash him.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:15am

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

The Verdict: fantasy baseball league constitutions

Over 200 years ago, the Founding Fathers of the United States of America collaborated on the most important document in this country's history. No, I am not talking about Kris Humphries and Kim Kardashian's marriage certificate. Of course I am referring to the U.S. Constitution, which is the foundation for the laws that we live by every day. The Constitution places checks and balances on all branches of government so that no one individual has absolute power.

Granted, there is quite a bit of ambiguity and controversy interpreting the intent and meaning behind the words in the Constitution. But it still remains the basis behind our democracy and of maintaining some semblance of stability within society.

The U.S. Constitution contained a Preamble that is famously quoted and recited. Because fantasy baseball is arguably just as important as democracy, I thought I would modify the Preamble to apply to fantasy baseball as we know it:

We the People of the fantasy sports industry, in order to form a more perfect fantasy baseball league, establish justice, insure domestic tranquility within the league, provide for the appropriate evaluation of trades, promote fairness in the best interests of the league, and secure the commitments of returning teams in a dynasty keeper league, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the fantasy baseball league.

Admittedly, running a fantasy baseball league is slightly less arduous than upholding the laws of society. Regardless, the presence of a league constitution will provide similar benefits and stability. This is because the rules and procedures of a league are clearly delineated so that the commissioner and all league members have an understanding of their respective responsibilities and duties. By putting your league's rules in writing, everyone involved is on notice and has instant access to them in the event of a controversy.

One prominent perception of the U.S. Constitution is that it is a living, breathing document. This way of thinking was best summed up by former Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes who said the Constitution "must be considered in the light of our whole experience and not merely in that of what was said a hundred years ago." What this means is that as times change, so should the interpretation and scope of the written rules.

We live in a time of tremendous technological innovations and the ability to do almost everything via smartphones. So rules that were written in 1990 regarding the submission of lineups and transactions probably are not applicable today. That is why a league's constitution needs to be updated and modified to conform to current times.

Whether you have an existing league constitution or are looking to create one for the first time, there are several generally accepted provisions that should be incorporated in the document irrespective of the format, style, structure, cost or complexity of the league you are in. The following list is not exhaustive, but at the very least forms the skeleton by which you can craft your league's constitution.

1. Mission statement - the purpose of the league.
2. Description of the league – how many teams, how many years of the league, keeper/non-keeper, AL/NL or mixed league, etc.
3. Important dates and deadlines – when money is due, lineups due (daily or weekly), trade deadline, draft, end of regular season, start of playoffs, etc.
4. Draft – the style of draft (snake vs. auction), the draft order, budget/auction dollars, time limits per pick, penalties for late picks.
5. Roster requirements – list the required starting positions and how many of each must be in a lineup.
6. Points/scoring system – list the point values for each statistic your league keeps track of.
7. Transactions – your rules about making add/drops, waiver wire, free agents, disabled list, injuries, etc.
8. Trades – your rules about making trades, criteria for evaluating them, process for approval (league vote or commissioner approval).
9. Standings – how many divisions your league is broken up into, the list of teams in each division, tie-breakers.
10. Playoffs – how many teams make the playoffs, how many weeks the playoffs are, the seeding for each week of playoffs.
11. Position eligibility – how many games are required for a player to be eligible at a position (from the previous year and current season).
12. Issues of first impression – how you will handle an issue or situation that is not delineated in the constitution (i.e., setting up a committee to resolve the issue, send out for a league vote, use a dispute resolution service like Fantasy Judgment, etc.)
13. League finances – entry fee, transactions fees, penalties (if any), prize money distribution, weekly awards (if any).

The mere presence of a constitution does not mean that your fantasy baseball league will be free from drama or controversy. It is unreasonable to expect a commissioner to foresee every possible scenario that can arise during a season. However, if the proper guidelines are in place to handle unforeseen issues, then the league is at least equipped with the best possible way of amicably resolving a conflict.

Posted by Michael Stein at 10:29am

Second look: Top 20 fantasy shortstops for 2012

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

TIER 1
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1         Troy Tulowitzki     COL       .302/.370/.543
2         Hanley Ramirez      MIA       .295/.369/.457

TIER 2
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver Projected Triple-Slash
3         Jose Reyes          MIA       .302/.348/.442

TIER 3
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
4         Starlin Castro      CHC       .308/.345/.426
5         Asdrubal Cabrera    CLE       .270/.324/.403

TIER 4
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
6         Elvis Andrus        TEX       .269/.333/.344
7         Jimmy Rollins       PHI       .253/.315/.387

TIER 5
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
8         J.J. Hardy          BAL       .254/.303/.412
9         Derek Jeter         NYY       .281/.340/.374
10        Alexei Ramirez      CHW       .267/.313/.391

TIER 6
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
11        Dee Gordon          LAD       .267/.304/.333

TIER 7
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
12        Erick Aybar         ANA       .270/.310/.375
13        Jhonny Peralta      DET       .264/.317/.406

TIER 8
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
14        Emilio Bonifacio    MIA       .272/.330/.351
15        Stephen Drew        ARI       .262/.326/.414

TIER 9
Rank      Player Name         Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
16        Tyler Pastornicky   ATL       .260/.302/.358
17        Zack Cozart         CIN       .247/.298/.395
18        Ian Desmond         WAS       .264/.305/.381
19        Yunel Escobar       TOR       .274/.348/.379
20        Alcides Escobar     KCR       .252/.287/.340

You'll notice that my shortstop rankings have a lot of narrowly filled tiers. That is because the talent pool at shortstop is thin and drops off exponentially. Unlike others, I do not play the "empty tier" ranking game when "the next" tier is a major step below the previous tier. I recommend reading the analysis by tier to glean any major talent gaps between tiers.

Tier 1

Oh how the mighty have fallen. Shortstop was a relatively robust fantasy position a decade ago. Even through the mid-2000's, you had a healthy regiment of productive players—many of whom you'll find, no longer as productive as they used to be, ranked below. Remember 2006? You had a young Hanley Ramirez, and up-and-coming Jose Reyes, a still productive Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, and others lighting up the box scores. Nowadays, unless you get a top three name, you've gotta worry. And even then, you can't discount the serious risk of injury.

For the first time ever since writing about fantasy, Hanley Ramirez is no longer my top shortstop. Once a seemingly perennial threat to hit .310+ with 180 runs scored plus RBI and 60 or more stolen bases plus home runs, it seems like Hanley fans are praying for .300/20/20 with a respectable R+RBI campaign. From the reports I have read, Hanley's back issues and shoulder issues have healed, and he's shown up to camp absolutely ripped. That should support his recent strides towards being a legitimate 25+ home run hitter, but what will it mean for his ever-declining stolen base totals? Only time will tell.

A healthy Hanley should be able to turn in an elite .295/25/25 campaign, and there's no reason to think he can't reach the 180 runs plus RBI plateau with a reinvigorated offense that includes Jose Reyes and hopefully, barring demotion, Logan Morrison. Injury risk still exists, however, and I doubt I can recommend paying upwards of $40 for a player no longer guaranteed to crack the top 30—even with positional scarcity considered. Hanley's problem has never been his ceiling—it's an issue of his floor.

That floor is still pretty darn high—high enough to merit ranking in the first tier along with Tulo—but not high enough, especially with declining stolen bases and increasing injuries in recent seasons, to push him over the edge as the No. 1 overall shortstop for 2012. He certain has No. 1 shortstop potential, however. Just do not overpay for the risk inherent.

On the flipside, Troy Tulowitzki has continued to battle some form of injury throughout his career, but he has not let injury slow him down since his sophomore campaign. Despite barely playing in 85 percent of the Rockies' games over the past three seasons (even less over the past two), Tulo has managed to turn in an aggregate 89 home runs and 40 stolen bases over that span while averaging a batting average over .300, reaching the 80 run plateau in each season and accumulating at least 90 RBI each of those seasons as well.

Tulo is downright elite, and if he could get to the 150 games plateau this season, 30 home runs and double digit stolen bases are easily in the cards—and even if he only gets to 140 games again this year, there is no reason he can't reach that plateau anyway. Tulo has a very high floor despite minor injury concerns, and his "100% healthy" ceiling is strong enough to make him the number one overall shortstop heading into 2012—even if he projects for a similar batting average and slightly less home runs plus stolen bases than Hanley Ramirez.

Tier 2

Reyes being in his own, separate tier should go without explanation. He's clearly light years ahead of Starlin Castro and company in terms of fantasy value, but he is too inconsistent an injury risk to legitimately belong in tier number one.

Reyes' stolen base prowess has never been questioned, but he needs to be healthy and get on base to steal and steal successfully. Note first Reyes' walk rate by season starting with his first full season in 2005: 3.7%, 7.5%, 10.1%, 8.7%, 10.8%, 5.1%, 7.3%. Further consider that only once has Reyes had consecutive seasons of batting averages within 0.015 points of each other (in 2009 he hit .279 and in 2010, he hit .280).

Reyes has posted an OBP above .350 in 6 of the past 7 season, but his inconsistent on base rate, paired with hamstring injuries that have limited him to 295 combined games played over the past three seasons, have lead to stolen base totals of 11, 30 and 39. Those are still incredibly useful, elite stolen base numbers, but the combination of injuries that affect his key tool and ability to play the game at all means that while elite stolen bases are possible, so is an injury-derailed campaign or an underwhelming season based on what it is going to take to acquire Reyes on draft day.

This is not to say that Reyes is not a candidate to return to his 15+ home run, 60+ stolen base days—he certainly isn't. But like Carl Crawford, with Reyes, you're always paying for the upside because someone is always going to like him for it and because he is a brand name commodity. Reyes' floor is surprisingly low for a top tier player considering his injury propensity.

In fact, let's go back to that Carl Crawford analogy of yesteryear for the moment. I think it is very fitting. Jose Reyes is the Carl Crawford of shortstop—a guy with loads of potential that you're always paying for, despite plenty of risk that he won't get there.

Tier 3

Tier three represents a huge dropoff from tier two. Whereas Reyes is reasonably capable of elite 50-60 stolen bases plus home run production (albeit at a likely overinflated price), it's a stretch to say that Castro or Cabrera have a ceiling of even 35. Castro took some modest strides forward in the power department last year, reaching the double digit home run plateau, but there's no real indication yet at this point that he'll be capable of more than 15 in his prime.

Despite being a legitimate .300+ batting average guy who could legitimately compete for plenty of future batting titles, his career walk rate of 5.2 percent is going to severely limit his stolen base value which is arguably its highest potential in Castro's younger seasons. Let's be honest. Castro's .040 isolate discipline is downright pitiful. That means his potential to reach the 30 stolen base plateau and turn in a 40+ home run plus stolen base season is a serious question mark. But hey, when pickins are slim, you can't complain too much.

Castro's ceiling is pretty high given his age and production to date and while last year's step backward in the walks department was a disappointment, there is always the pipe dream that a Cubs prospect can learn to walk...right? .300/12/25 is totally in the cards, but like his stolen base totals, Castro's runs totals will be contingent on his on base rate (in addition to how the Cubs' offense falls into place in 2012).

Asdrubal Cabrera is a solid shortstop option that, before 2011, never got enough credit for his potential. .280/15/15 capable shortstops are not easy to come by (especially in the American League) and although 15 stolen bases or home runs is hardly going to light any worlds on fire, balanced above average production across the board like that is a seriously underrated fantasy commodity.

Diversified players are easier to replace when they go down with injury, and supplement when they disappoint. That might be a pessimistic way to view fantasy, but a wise man once told me to always plan for the worst and hope for the best. Plus, injuries are not exactly a non-factor in fantasy. Be careful not to draft Cabrera in 2012 for the wrong reasons, however. Anyone expecting another 25 home run campaign, or much power growth above that is guaranteed to be sorely disappointed.

Consider Cabrera's isolated power and plate appearance totals by month last year: .175/123, .245/114, .171/18, .170/105, .195/77. In the context of a career .133 ISO and pre-2011 career high ISO of .138, the "breakout," if legit is probably closer to the .170 ISO mark (approximately 18 home run potential) than the 25 bombs he blasted last year. Not convinced? Consider his home run profile. 15 of his 25 home runs (60 percent) were "just enough" homers. Only Miguel Cabrera, with 16, had more "just enough" home runs than Asdrubal Cabrea. Whereas Miggy has a track record of power and whereas Miggy averaged 396.7 feet per home run last season, Cabrera's average home run distance was 383.2 feet.

Draft Asdrubal for the safety net that .280/15/15 provides. Don't draft him expecting top 50, or likely even top 100, overall production.

Tier 4

Andrus' ceiling is arguably as high as Asdrubal Cabrera and Castro, but his inefficient stolen base rate could lead to fewer stolen bases overall. Ron Washington has not been afraid to apply the red light to his speedsters over the past two seasons, and Andrus only accumulated two net steals in the second half. Andrus also saw his walk rate dip last year after major strides forward in 2010. That's a serious risk worth noting for a guy whose value almost entirely derives from his stolen base totals. .280+/40+ is still in the cards, though.

Once upon a time, Jimmy Rollins was a top tier shortstop. While he still has plenty of defensive value that is totally irrelevant to fantasy, Rollins' ceiling at this point is pretty modest and his floor is pretty low. Now that we can all agree that Rollins is not a legitimate 30/30 candidate, his draft day value has finally approached his actual value. A 15/30 campaign is certainly realistic, but it's likely to come with a negative .250 batting average and injury risk. And Rollins has seen injury zap his playing time in three of the past four years. Rollins could easily end up among the top five shortstops by the end of the year if he repeats his 2011 performance, but there's a lot of "if" floating around that statement.

Tier 5

J.J. Hardy's always been an intriguing player, and despite ranking him in the lower portion of my shortstop rankings last year, I cautioned he was a name to watch with potential. And he delivered on that potential. Can he sustain it again for 2012? Talent has never been a question for Hardy. He has legitimate power when healthy and "on," but ever since the beginning of the second half of 2008, he's either been "off" or injured.

2011 was a huge return to form, but it remains uncertain what level of production Hardy can sustain in 2012 for fantasy owners. A look at Hardy's month-to-month splits positively indicates consistency over "burst production," which is always a great sign that a player can/will retain prior year gains, but whether Hardy can stave off injury next year is a serious question. Furthermore, it was never really clear what distinguished Hardy's first half of 2008 from his second half. Yips? Unspoken injury? I am cautiously optimistic about Hardy for 2012.

By the middle of 2011, people were pretty much done with Derek Jeter and the $15 I paid for him last year at the draft table in the THT Fantasy league looked like an absolute joke. But give the Captain some credit. He ended the season with respectable, Jeterian numbers. He batted .297 (.327 in the second half) with a .355 overall OBP (.383 in the second half) with 16 stolen bases and 6 home runs. His runs total was a bit lower than hoped for, at 84, but his RBI total (61) was more or less par for the post-2007 Jeterian course.

No one legitimately expected more than a .300 batting average, 5-10 home run, 15-20 stolen base, 100 run campaign, and Jeter delivered, more or less, on those expectations (albeit on the lower end with plenty of runs scored disappointment). Now I am not going to look too far into his second half, but Jeter's overall line is about comparable to what I am expecting in 2012—hopefully with maybe 10+ more runs scored. Jeter is a shell of his former fantasy self, but he's still a top 10 shortstop that is the model of consistency and expectations at this point in his career. Jeter will provide a little all around by season end, and that's certainly worth something.

Alexei Ramirez has a higher ceiling than Jeter at at this point in their careers, but where did he go in the second half of 2011? Will Ramirez ever return to the 20 home run power with above average batting average production he flashed in his rookie season? No clue. That's why he's ranked lower than Jeter—especially with the stolen base drop off last year.

Tier 6

Dee Gordon is pure speed. He's a modern day Juan Pierre with positional scarcity on his side. In 131 games in A-ball in 2009, Flash Gordon swiped 73 bases. Gordon is not an exceptionally talented hitter, however, and since he has a deathly allergy to walking (3.0% in the majors last year, 5.8% in Triple-A last year), his value is going to be entirely contingent on his BABIP luck. With lightning speed (7.7 speed score!), that's a bet I'd be willing to take.

But batting average (a vicarious representation of his OBP potential) is always a risky stat to bank on -- especially for young, unproven players. Thankfully Gordon does not strikeout a lot, and slaps the ball on the ground a lot (56 percent groundball rate). Like Hardy, I'm cautiously optimistic. If he hits .290 or higher next season, Dee Gordon could be a huge breakout player. If he hits below .280, he's going to provide empty stolen bases.

With zero power, a less than exciting MLE, and no RBI prospects, I can't seriously consider ranking Gordon any higher. But don't let that fool you; I always tend to undervalue pure speed and Gordon could easily make this ranking look too conservative with a good enough batting average.

Tier 7

Risk plus moderate potential abound here. Erick Aybar offers "Derek Jeter power" with 20-30 stolen bases and the potential for a respectable batting average to boot in a great offensive line up. And he's only 28. But until I see him do it again, the most I'm going to project Aybar for is a .270/7/25 campaign with R/RBI potential contingent upon lineup slotting.

Jhonny Peralta, on the other hand, is a guy whose shown he can do it while demonstrating he's can't necessarily be relied on to follow through. Since being traded to the Tigers a year and half ago, Peralta certainly returned to his 2005-2008 form last year, but 2009 and 2010 are too recent in memory to forget. Especially when you consider that the bulk of Peralta's "return to power" came in May and June (the other months resembled 2009-2010). Still, with shortstop such a shallow position, Peralta's move off the hot corner gives him plenty of mixed-league relevant value. Begrudgingly, someone is going to have to take this risk, but it could be worse I suppose...

Tier 8

Is Emilio Bonifacio seriously bona fide? He's always had a knack for speed, but his 2009 and 2010 combined output, over 200 games played, is still a less than enthralling 33 stolen bases (9 caught stealing), one home run, 100 runs scored and 37 RBI with a sub-.260 batting average. So color me skeptical when that player hits .296 with 40 stolen bases and 5 home runs over 152 games. Still, that kind of upside is about as good as it gets once Peralta is off the board...

Stephen Drew used to always be one of those guys a few people in every league inevitably liked as a sleeper—but the best season of his career, 2008, was really only Jhonny Peraltaian at best. Can we finally acknowledge Drew for what he is: an inconsistent batting average risk with teens home run power and modest "first baseman like" stolen base contributions. With injuries looming, the floor is too low to call Drew mixed league relevant, but as a $1 late round flier, Drew could certainly payoff as a bargain buy if he's healthy as a middle infielder or mid-season trade chip.

Tier 9

I can't really decide who I like more for deeper mixed and NL-only leagues: Tyler Pastornicky or Zack Cozart. Cozart certainly has the higher pedigree and more balanced offering (15/15 capable), but his batting average potential is certainly negative.

Pastornicky, on the other hand, offers Jeter-like power with 30 stolen base potential. I personally see Pastornicky as a more legit Bonafacio-type for 2012 without any track record to back up that statement. Pastornicky's going to probably bat 8th, however, and that's usually a death bell for fantasy relevance. Do you think the Braves regret trading Yunel Escobar yet? Speaking of which, his .280/15/5 upside when healthy can't be ignored—especially in AL-only leagues. Yunel Escobar could be a solid, cheap handcuff for Jose Reyes. There's just no real upside at all here, though, which is why Escobar is ranked so low.

Ian Desmond arguably offers 30 stolen base plus home run potential, but he is a huge batting average liability that does not walk very much at all. Desmond's stolen base totals last year were also feast or famine throughout the season, so H2H players need to be wary.

Lastly, we have Alcides Escobar. He's got massive stolen base potential, right? Well he does not walk and so far has not hit for average either, so his actual fantasy relevance outside AL-only leagues is highly questionable at this point in the game.

Guys who just missed out on being ranked include Mike Aviles (playing time concerns) and Cliff Pennington (a really poor man's Elvis Andrus). Aviles could arguably be a top 15 shortstop this year if consistent enough playing time falls his way.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments section below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 12:22am

Monday, March 12, 2012

This week in (fantasy) baseball 3/5-3/11

Yanks' Robertson hurt while taking out recyclables

The good news is the Yankees’ most valuable setup man suffered only a bone bruise while taking out the recyclables last week, not a ligament tear, bone fracture or the dreaded Lisfranc sprain that torpedoed Chien-Ming Wang’s career in the Bronx. The bad news is the right-hander, who turns 27 in early April, is wearing a protective boot and is on crutches and will lose significant spring action as he gets ready for the 2012 season.

The team will understandably be cautious with the pitcher considered the front-runner to succeed Mariano Rivera, who has hinted at retiring after this season. In the meantime, Rafael Soriano will assume the role of eighth-inning man until Robertson’s return, which could be in time for Opening Day.

Robertson’s injury could have a profound impact on Phil Hughes’ fantasy value, as the Yankees could consider moving the 25-year-old (former?) phenom to the bullpen if more manpower is needed in the late innings. The Yankees, after all, have four rotation spots locked down in the forms of CC Sabathia, Michael Pineda, Hiroki Kuroda and Ivan Nova, and Freddy Garcia has looked good so far in early spring action.

After reporting to camp out of shape last year, a noticeably trimmer Hughes arrived in Florida early this year, and reached 93 on the radar gun multiple times during his one-and-two-thirds-inning appearance last week.

Certainly, a healthy Hughes would be the favorite to crack the Yankees’ rotation, with Garcia then moving to long relief. And it goes without saying that any starting pitcher on the mighty Yankees carries significant fantasy value, as Hughes did in 2010, when a pedestrian ERA and WHIP didn’t stop him from compiling 18 wins.

But his fate, along with Garcia’s, resides with Robertson’s recovery. Let’s see how long it takes for one of baseball’s top setup men to recover, and for the Yankees to rush one of their most valuable players back into major league action.

Hart recovering well from knee surgery

Manager Ron Roenicke told Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel Saturday that Corey Hart is walking around without crutches, which is an encouraging sign considering the right-fielder underwent surgery last week to repair a meniscus tear in his right knee.

Hart, who turns 30 later this month, is expected to miss a month after the surgery, though he still has an outside shot to be ready for Opening Day. In his absence, Norichika Aoki and Carlos Gomez could pick up additional playing time, while Mat Gamel is now seeing at-bats from the fifth spot in the batting order.

Sore shoulder shuts down Marcum

Shaun Marcum is dealing with shoulder stiffness, which forced Milwaukee to shut down the right-hander early last week. Roenicke refused to rule out the possibility that Marcum, 30, will return to the rotation by Opening Day, though it remains to be seen how much playing time he’ll miss in March.

If this sounds familiar, that’s because Marcum was bothered by a sore shoulder during last year’s spring training as well, except he was able to recover well enough to go 6-2 with a 2.80 ERA and 1.047 WHIP over 2011’s first two months. As fantasy owners keep an eye on Marcum’s progress, backup plans include Marco Estrada, who went 3-2 with a 3.70 ERA in seven starts last year, along with prospects Wily Peralta and Michael Fiers.

Towel turmoil cuts Price start short

Who knew toweling off between innings could carry such physical risk? In what has to be regarded as one of the strangest spring training injuries of all time, David Price strained his neck Wednesday as he mopped off sweat during his first start of the spring, forcing him to cut short his appearance. Fortunately, the injury doesn’t seem all that serious, and Price isn’t projected to miss his next start.

Chris Carpenter sidelined with neck issue

As the Cardinals welcomed Adam Wainwright’s two scoreless innings on Friday, his first start in more than a year since undergoing Tommy John surgery, the team revealed that co-ace Chris Carpenter is suffering from a bulging cervical disc that will force him to miss his debut start. Joe Strauss of The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports Carpenter’s spring schedule has not yet been set by the team.

For Cardinals fans, the good news is the injury is less severe than a nerve issue, which the team feared given Carpenter’s injury history. But it will be interesting to see if the news has any impact on the 36-year-old starter’s fantasy value among anxious owners.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:10am

Second look: Top 20 fantasy catchers for 2012

The following conditions apply to a player's position eligibility:
1. A player's position eligibility will not be adjusted prior to the beginning of the season. (If a player in spring training is playing a "new" position, that position will not appear until a player has met the criteria for a change.)
2. Players will not lose eligibility at a previously established position at any time. (For example, if a catcher-eligible player begins to play first base exclusively, he will remain eligible at catcher for the entire season.)
3. It is not possible to customize this setting within Custom Leagues. All leagues are subject to the same constraints.

Gaining eligibility at a new position:
If a position player makes five (5) starts or 10 total appearances at a new position during this season, he will become eligible to play that position in Yahoo! Sports Fantasy Baseball. Pitchers need to make three starts to become eligible as a starter and five relief appearances to qualify as a reliever.

TIER 1
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
1     Mike Napoli           TEX       .268/.349/.509
2     Brian McCann          ATL       .274/.354/.473
3     Carlos Santana        CLE       .252/.364/.468

TIER 2
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
4     Buster Posey          SFG       .286/.354/.449
5     Joe Mauer             MIN       .318/.391/.467

TIER 3
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
6     Miguel Montero        ARI       .275/.339/.441
7     Jesus Montero*        SEA       .282/.338/.491
8     Matt Wieters          BAL       .258/.323/.407
9     Alex Avila            DET       .258/.346/.429
10    Geovany Soto          CHC       .236/.327/.408

TIER 4
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
11    J.P. Arencibia        TOR       .220/.273/.416
12    Wilson Ramos          WAS       .265/.311/.430
13    Devin Mesoraco        CIN       .250/.313/.449

TIER 5
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
14    Yadier Molina         STL       .284/.340/.401
15    Salvador Perez        KCR       .263/.292/.386
16    Russell Martin        NYY       .244/.334/.363
17    Kurt Suzuki           OAK       .253/.306/.397

TIER 6
Rank  Player Name           Team      Oliver's Projected Triple-Slash
18    Jarrod Saltalamacchia BOS       .222/.284/.387
19    Jonathan Lucroy       MIL       .257/.314/.372
20    Chris Iannetta        ANA       .225/.342/.399

Tier 1 analysis

You'll always feel safe with a tier-one catcher, but, Mike Napoli arguably aside, how confident overall are you with paying top dollar for a top-tier catcher when the most you can reasonably expect from him is likely a high of a .270 batting average, maybe 25 home runs, 60-ish runs and hopefully 70-plus RBI?

Between injury propensity and the constant need to rest, catchers are a risky and relatively lackluster position of production. Aside from closers, if there's any position to ditch, it's catchers. The big names will costs you a premium price over the return; unless you have extra money to blow, give drafting a top-flight catcher serious reconsideration.

That said, I doubt the three names in this tier, or their order, are very controversial. Napoli won't hit .300 again, but 2012 might be the first year his team finally believes in him enough to give him regular, consistent playing time to start the season. Of all the catchers on the list, Napoli and Carlos Santana are the only ones I feel confident projecting for 25-plus home runs next year.

Both players have their batting average risks—and never let a catcher's low BABIP fool you; it's not just bad luck when you get thrown out on more routine plays when you squat all day—but at least a .260 average won't kill you (especially since it'll come with a lot fewer at-bats than a guy like Ichiro Suzuki or even Carlos Pena).

Both Napoli and Santana should help out pretty well on the OBP side, as well. Santana is probably the better bargain for 2012, likely to cost up to $10 less, but I doubt the difference in their end-of-season production will be that great.

I always love Brian McCann, and he was great when healthy last season, but at this point in his career, he is what he is: a .275 or so hitter with 20-to-25 home run power, modest high 60s run production, 80 RBI potential, and a handful of stolen bases thrown in for good measure. McCann produces at a consistent clip every year, year in and year out, and consistency at that level for a catcher is rare, especially when you consider he's a middle-of-the-order hitter for the Braves.

Tier 2 analysis

Tier two is compromised of a pair of players with the potential to put up numbers on par with McCann/Santana/Napoli but with clear risks that keep their floors from putting them on par. Joe Mauer is not a model of health. Even with consistent DH/first base reps every week that should bolster his playing time and the value of his batting-average contributions, there is no guarantee he will/can stay healthy.

I have now owned Mauer in two seasons—2007 and 2011—and I have sworn him off forever more. How much stock do you want to put into a catcher with modest-at-best "low teens" home run power whose biggest assets in standard leagues is his batting average talents when his knees just won't stay healthy? When Mauer isn't hitting .330, he looks an awful lot like a Yadier Molina clone.

Buster Posey, likewise, has two major risks. The first is coming back from injury/surgery. So far, all signs on that front seem positive. The second risk is that Posey just is not the player he teased us with in 2010. Last preseason, I noted:

I ranked Buster Posey below Victor Martinez because I am concerned that much of Posey's 2010 power was a "fluke." A look at Posey's monthly splits reveals that his power bursts were largely limited to two months (July/September). In fact, his July power output was largely relegated to a five/six day span between the fifth and 10th of the month. I think Posey's .290+ AVG potential is certainly legit, but his power leaves me with questions..."

Posey has done nothing since to overcome that worry, and last year's .105 ISO and four home runs over his first 45 games hardly did anything to dispel my concerns. Posey's posted a consistent ISO right around .200 at every level in the minor leagues, and he did the same in 2010 for the Giants, but how often does a .200 ISO directly translate at the major league level? Consider me continuously skeptical. i think the batting average is still legit, and his floor is much higher than the guys in the lower tier, but let's temper out expectations for the return of Posey. Oliver projects a .285/.353/.442 line (.795 OPS) for Posey this season, with only 13 homers per 400 or so at-bats. I'd likely take the over on that, but not by much. A .290-.295 batting average with 15-18 home runs is my best guess.

Tier 3 analysis

Pretty much every guy in this tier is the same mold of player with roughly the same expected type of production. The rankings in this tier, then, are by each player's floor.

Miguel Montero is probably the best bet of the group to turn in a McCann-like season and not be a total bust for you if he does not. McCann gets tier one status, however, because he's a production machine whereas Montero's breakout year was just last season. I expect Montero to do just about what Posey should do, with a little more power upside and a noticeably lower batting average.

Once he qualifies for the position (it could take up to a month, with him expected to catch only 1-2 days per week), Jesus Montero could be a top-five catcher this year. He could even be a top-three catcher by season end, and he is the most likely person on this list to be the No. 1 overall catcher outside tier one.

So why the low rating? With fewer than 100 plate appearances to his name, a lot of what I expect Jesus Montero to do is still mere projection. His brief showing at the end of September last year was impressive, and we all know how the now-only-22 year old pummeled minor league pitching, but can he sustain that level of production at Safeco Park? Only time will tell, but I'm betting yes.

If I had ranked the younger Montero in my top five, I would have surely been ostracized in the comments and looked a total fool if he busted. So consider his "relatively low" ranking a CYA kinda thing that acknowledges the floors of rookies can get awful low sometimes.

Was Matt Wieters' second half legit, or should we be buying into his overall line? Or is more of 2009 and 2010 and the first half of 2011 to be expected? This is why Wieters can't be ranked any higher. His floor is still pretty high, though, and considering the pedigree, there is plenty of reason to buy into the breakout theory.

What I said about Wieters can also apply to Alex Avila, only without the pedigree. Avila's power fell off the map in July, rebounded in August, and then dipped again in September. Those swings raise serious questions about Avila's ability to repeat his 20-home-run power in 2012.

A greater sample size will be necessary to determine where his true batting talents lie, for now making him more of a risk with more of a floor (see his 2010 production) that most of the other guys in this group. For what it's worth, Oliver thinks Avila has legit "Matt Kemp power" (a term of art invented by yours truly several years ago).

Last, but certainly not least, this tier rounds out with my boy Geovany Soto. I own his jersey, and he seems to hit a home run or multiple run-scoring double every game I attend, but Soto's inconsistencies are too hard for me to ignore, even with my homer-glasses. Will he hit .270-plus or around .220?

At least Soto's power has been consistently legit save for a shoulder-injury-related fluke of a season in 2009. Worrisome are Soto's steps back in the strikeout and walks department last year after consistent strides forward since 2008. On the bright side, Soto seems to alternate great seasons in even-numbered years with disappointing ones in odd-numbered years, so 2012 could be the rebound year for jersey No. 18!

Tier 4 analysis

Tier four is comprised of an interesting mix of players. By and large, Arencibia is a one-tool player. His walk rate is slightly below average, at best, and he has Carlos Pena batting average upside with 144 strikeouts in 523 career at-bats. Additionally, he is not a fast runner and has been caught stealing (one time) as many times as he has been successful (again, a meager one time). But man, that one tool, power, is totally legit and enough to make you overlook the rest of his flaws when you consider catcher's batting averages are less important than players at other positions. (It's an at-bat thing). Arencibia is almost a lock for 20 home runs with consistent playing time in 2012, and 25 is surely not out of the question.

Wilson Ramos does not seem to have a whole lot of upside, but at the same time he doesn't seem to have a whole lot of downside. A .270 batting average with 10 home run as the floor and a high teens home run ceiling is pretty solid catcher production, and it makes Ramos just barely mixed-league starting catcher relevant.

Devin Mesoraco has the pedigree to rank among the guys listed in tier three, but with less of a pedigree than Jesus Montero and a less-than-successful first cup of tea last year, Mesoraco's floor is clearly much lower than anyone else in tier three. Consider further that, even with Yasmani Grandal out of the picture, Dusty Baker still hates his rookies, and you can see Ryan Hanigan easily sticking around long enough to zap Mesoraco's 2012 relevance despite "Geovany Soto in his prime"-like upside.

Mesoraco is a much better play in dynasty leagues, where 2012 is the ideal "getting in on the ground floor"-type pick with the hope to see returns in the second half of the season. Take my word and don't draft Mesoraco as your primary guy. Stash him with the hopes he makes his way to starting catcher status by the end of May.

Tier 5 analysis

This is the tier of players where you cringe with risk-averse fear if they are your No. 1 catcher, but you feel comfortable enough if they are your No. 2 catcher. Yadier Molina leads the pack with a modest ceiling but high floor. A useful batting average and potential double digit home runs is better "in the bag" production to draft than hoping for more while planning for much less.

Salvador Perez seems like a Molina clone with a little more power upside and a lot less track record. Perez has the potential to hit in the mid-.280s with double digit home runs, but will he? Oliver's a bit bearish on Perez, but a mid-.260s batting average with 10 home runs per 500 plate appearances is pretty solid for a second catcher. With no one really "waiting in the wings" for the Royals at the catcher position and the Royals projecting for another season middling in the AL Central at best, Perez should have a moderately long leash (unlike Mike Aviles last year).

Russell Martin and Kurt Suzuki are about the same player in my mind. Potential double-digit power, .250-.260 projected batting averages, and five-plus stolen-base potential if/when healthy. But health is a huge issue for these guys. Both are about the same age, so there's no "youth edge" between then, but Martin's higher perpensity for running on the basepaths gives him the edge over Suzuki.

Martin's always been an overrated catcher, but now that most people are so down on him, if he can stay healthy, he could be a sleeper to be borderline mixed-league relevant in 2012. Perpetual injury issues keep him outside the top 15, however.

Tier 6 analysis

Last, but not least, we have the dregs—guys with modest ceilings but poor floors. Jarrod Saltalamacchia has inconsistent flashes of potential at times, showing us why he once had the kind of hype that Miguel Montero had coming up, but too often he does too little to be relied on consistently. Salty could make a nice streaming option if you believe in riding the streak.

Jonathan Lucroy has Yadier Molina-like upside, with Salvador Perez-like downside. He likely won't do much of anything, but at least he won't totally kill you. To me, Lucroy is the quintessential midseason stopgap for those silly enough to draft Mauer.

Chris Iannetta is a lot like Saltalamacchia, but it's been a while since his last useful flashes of brilliance. Can a change of scenery help? Moving away from Coors is never a good thing for a power-hitter, and if Napoli is a cautionary tale, we know Mike Scioscia is probably not the best manager to bank your starting fantasy catcher on.

As always, leave the love/hate in the comments below.

Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:13am

Friday, March 09, 2012

Roto Chat this Sunday, March 11

Posted by Nick Fleder at 7:17am

Dollar a day: Jose Altuve

Five foot seven. 170 pounds. 21 years of age. Jose Altuve can barely drink legally—and can probably barely drink physically, too—yet has a chance to shine brightest on the Astros this summer.

Altuve is a speedster with a knack for doing what speedsters do, which is speeding towards second after making it to first. In other words, he has the potential to steal 25 or more bases as soon as this year. Well said, I know.

He ended 2010 with a below-league average showing in High-A, putting up a .276/.333/.457 triple-slash that had no one in the right mind even speculating about a September cup of tea, let alone a mid-season call-up. But then a well-rounded season split between High-A and Double-A produced video-game numbers:

A .389 batting average.
24 steals and 40 strikeouts.
A 1.017 OPS*.
10 home runs in 87 games*.

I starred the last two numbers because—and I repeat—Jose Altuve is 5-foot-7 and 170 pounds. In other words, he is supposed to be a slap hitter, pure and simple. A look at his 50 percent groundball rate will tell you he is, but his minor league power is ignorable. Just look at the projections for his power this year.

Bill James has him pinned for 10 homers. Steamer has him at nine. ZiPS projections have him at 10. Oliver—the best of all, I may add—has him at eight.

So, let me synthesize. I am telling you the very small kid man at second base, who will likely steal 25 bases and challenge for a .300 batting average, will actually clear the fences more than a few times. And yes, I am telling you he’s available for a dollar. Theft!

Posted by Nick Fleder at 4:39am

Top-100 Fantasy Baseball Prospects Part 1: 1-25

1: Bryce Harper/OF/Washington Nationals/10-16-92/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Projects for 20+ home runs as soon as next season, and 25+ starting in 2014. Not just a power hitter, he'll help across the board.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Harper remains the top fantasy baseball prospect in the game. He did everything that could reasonably be expected of him in his pro debut, and then some probably. He followed up his minor league season by demolishing pitching in the Arizona Fall League (AFL). He received 105 plate appearances and hit .333/.400/.634 with six home runs, four stolen bases, and a solid 11:22 walk-to-strikeout (BB:K). Harper's outstanding play has led many to speculate he'll break camp with the Nationals.

Manager Davey Johnson is lobbying for his inclusion on the Opening Day roster, but the club may choose to send him to Triple-A Syracuse to avoid losing a year of control. Regardless of where he starts the year, he'll finish it in the majors, barring injury.

October 2011: Last year's top overall selection in the draft has lived up to his lofty billing as arguably the top prospect in baseball. He opened the year in High-A, no small feat for an 18-year-old, and promptly showed off all of his tools. His power was on display with 14 home runs in 258 at-bats in High-A and he tacked on three more in 129 Double-A at-bats.

In addition to his power tool, which is his greatest asset, he displayed tremendous strike zone awareness with a 59:87 walk-to-strikeout rate between both minor league stops. Perhaps most surprising is Harper's above-average speed, which allowed him to steal 26 bases with a passable seven times caught stealing. At just 18, Harper is built like a Mack truck at 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds, but in the event he further fills out as he ages, his speed tool will almost certainly be adversely affected. On the flip side, such maturation may further enhance his power tool, which projects to rate as an 80 on the 20-80 scale.

With power numbers down in the majors the past few seasons, Harper gets the nod over fellow blue chip prospect Mike Trout for top honors on this list.

2: Mike Trout/OF/Los Angeles Angels/ 8-7-91/ ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Projects to be a .300+ hitter with mid-to-high teens home run power and plus stolen base contributions before his 25th birthday.
Scouting notes: March 2012: An offseason of activity has created some hurdles for Trout to clear for playing time.

The trickle-down effect of Albert Pujols signing with the Angels is that Kendrys Morales will primarily play designated hitter, taking away a position to unclog the outfield log jam. The likely starting arrangement features Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter (that's not to mention Bobby Abreu, who is buried on the bench).

Trout bypassed Triple-A entirely, so it wouldn't be the end of the world if he were to start the year there and get further seasoning. It's hard to see him not forcing the Angels' hand at some point. He's simply too talented.

October 2011: For those who like to straddle fences, Trout could easily be considered 1A. He played most of this season as a 19-year-old in Double-A before the Angels promoted him for the first time in July. He raked in the minors, but was unable to carry that over when making the leap from Double-A to the majors. He wasn't entirely overmatched, though, and his second go-round has been much kinder to him.

His greatest fantasy asset is his 80 speed tool. Unlike some speedsters, Trout isn't a one-trick pony. He possesses the skills necessary to hit for average, reach base via the walk, and even hit for above-average power down the line. Five-tool players with an advanced approach at the plate who reach the major leagues before their 20th birthday are a rare breed, and Trout is just that. Gamers who play in leagues with specific outfield designations (i.e. left field, center field, right field) have a strong case to flip-flop Trout with Harper on this list.

3: Matt Moore/SP/Tampa Bay Rays/6-18-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Oliver indicates that ERA and WHIP expectations should be tempered, but the strikeouts, they'll be there in bunches. Just under 10 K/9 in 2012-2013, over the 10 K/9 mark by 2014.
Scouting notes: March 2012: All Matt Moore did after this list came out last year was spin a seven-inning, two-hit gem against the Rangers in the American League Division Series. He wouldn't make another start in the series, but he did make a three-inning relief appearance in which he gave up just one earned run on a solo home run. In total, he threw 10 innings, allowing one earned run, three hits and three walks and fanning eight.

The Rays have seven starters vying for five spots. Alex Cobb seems like an easy cut from the mix, but since the Rays failed to trade Jeff Niemann or Wade Davis, it is unclear how the team plans to open up a rotation spot for Moore. He's proven all he needs to in the minors, and one way or another, should net over 150 innings in the major league rotation. This time next year, the talk of what starting pitcher should go first in fantasy drafts could include Moore.

October 2011: Coming into the season just one facet of Moore's game needed further refining, something he already began to iron out in the second half of 2010: his command and control. Moore has done that this year. shaving a full walk off his 2010 BB/9 rate while maintaining a strikeout rate that would be elite by relief pitcher standards. He toyed with Double-A and Triple-A hitters this year and catapulted himself to top status among prospect pitchers.

Moore is a southpaw who comes at hitters with a plus velocity fastball that touched triple digits in the Futures Game, and routinely sits in the mid-90s, a curveball and a change-up. He is the total package, and has the goods necessary to outperform Jeremy Hellickson's impressive (though luck-aided) rookie season.

4: Jurickson Profar/SS/Texas Rangers/2-20-93/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Plenty of glove to stick at shortstop, but the bat will lag behind for a bit. Strong minor league walk rates project well with Oliver, and Profar should get a bump in value in OBP leagues.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Profar has passed Manny Machado for top prospect shortstop honors. My speculation about a possible position change because of the presence of Elvis Andrus was premature. Andrus has yet to sign an extension with the Rangers, and as a Scott Boras client, is likely to test the free agent waters. He is under Rangers team control until 2014, so it's likely the situation will work itself out. Looking at the keystone position, Ian Kinsler's Rangers contract will be up after 2013 (assuming they pick up his 2013 option).

Wherever Profar plays up the middle, his bat will be special. He can be a five-category contributor. Those are great to own at any position, and special when it is at a middle infield position.

October 2011: Profar is an exceptional talent at shortstop both in the field and at the plate. Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus are two of his biggest advocates, but John Sickels and the stable of writers/scouts at Baseball America also yield glowing reviews. He could easily be ranked next to, or even above Machado: His results have been better, he's younger and projects to be above average as an up-the-middle infield defender. I rank him a few spots later because I think he'll be forced to move to second base. In most organizations, there would be no question he'd stick at his current position, but the Rangers have this guy Elvis Andrus already in place, and he's pretty good.

Profar's command of the strike zone is mind-boggling for an 18-year-old. He walked more than he struck out this year, and done so as a player who hits for pop and not just a slap singles type. The Rangers have set a precedent of aggressiveness with Andrus, indicating that if Profar is up for the challenge, they'll continue to move him up.

5: Jesus Montero/C/New York Yankees/11-28-89/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Offensive minded catcher who should hit for power as soon as this year, and not at the expense of batting average. Oliver likes him to post his first OPS north of .800 in 2013, but he won't be far off that mark this season.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Bye, bye New York, hello Seattle. The Mariners shipped Michael Pineda and Jose Campos to the Yankees in return for Montero and Hector Noesi. Montero will no longer benefit from calling Yankee Stadium his home ballpark, but could benefit from no longer being pressed by better defensive catching options in the prospect ranks (the Yankees had both Austin Romine and Gary Sanchez climbing the ladder).

Designated hitter is still probably his best defensive home, but it appears the Mariners are going to be willing to allow him to fake it behind the plate a little longer. The added value he'd get from retaining catcher eligibility for a few more seasons far outweighs park effects and lineup effects. The Mariners lineup won't need to be as a potent one-through-nine as the Yankees for Montero to be a counting stats beast hitting third or fourth in the lineup. Montero made good on his hype in a 61 at-bat cup of coffee at the end of 2011, hitting .328/.406/.590 with four home runs. He won't post peak years numbers in his rookie season in 2012, but expectations of a .280 average and 20 home runs aren't wildly optimistic at all.

October 2011: He's listed as a catcher now, but it is nearly impossible to find a scouting report that considers Montero as anything more than a designated hitter masquerading as a catcher. Only the most arduous Yankees homers seem to think he can stick behind the plate; thus, he's ranked behind players he would otherwise be ranked in front of should he remain at his current defensive home. Montero's bat was among the best in the minors, and at just 21 this year he was young for the Triple-A level.

He offers plus power with projection for more down the road, but not at the expense of average. If he remains a Yankee and isn't used as a trade chip, he should be the full-time designated hitter in 2012. Ideally, at least from a fantasy perspective, he'll also serve as the backup catcher logging enough time to retain eligibility there. The Yankees have a number of aging players on long term deals who may be best suited playing designated hitter in the near future, leaving open the possibility Montero's future lies elsewhere. Regardless of where he calls home, both city and defensively, Montero is a young hitter who should be treasured in fantasy leagues.

6: Nolan Arenado/3B/Colorado Rockies/4-16-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Doesn't project to walk much, but makes up for it by rarely striking out. Should hit for a plus average and plus power right out of the chute.
Scouting notes: March 2012: A superb showing in the AFL prompted crazy talk from the Rockies brass. They suggested that Arenado will be given a shot to win the third base job in spring training. I liken the odds of that happening to that of me winning Powerball. It's not a non-zero chance, but it is pretty darn close.

That said, a summertime promotion isn't out of the question if he tears the cover off the ball in Double-A. Making the jump from Double-A to the majors is beginning to feel like the norm these days, and Arenado may add his name to the list of blue chip prospects to do so. He made strides to his walk rate in 2011, all the while reducing his strikeout rate to under 10 percent. Scouting reports of his defense are more favorable going into this season than they were going into last season, but he remains a hit-first, field-second, hot corner man. That's fine; Arenado has the hitting part under control. As he further physically matures, he should continue to see his home run output increase. Add that to his plus contribution to batting average, and that makes Arenado the best third base prospect in fantasy games.

October 2011: A 20-year-old who is moving one level at a time, Arenado has plenty of time to remain on that development arc. Not a lock to stick at third base, but this projection operates under the assumption that his average defense shown this year will allow him to stay there for a bit. Most scouting reports consider his bat the best in the Rockies system. Playing home games at Coors has its perks, and Arenado could be a beneficiary.

7: Manny Machado/SS/Baltimore Orioles/7-6-92/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: His power and average trend in the right direction, but he doesn't project to hit the 20 home run plateau in the six year forecast.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Not noted in last year's write-up is that Machado missed time due to a knee injury in May. Prior to the injury, he was tormenting Low-A pitching. Shortly after his return, he was promoted to High-A. He flashed some power and patience in his time there, and I expect the average to go up significantly if he begins the year back at Frederick. The stay could be short there, and a promotion to Double-A during the season seems about right.

October 2011: His stats won't jump off the page, but Machado's full season debut has been solid. Machado is an offensive-minded shortstop who is expected by most to stick there. As a toolsy high school shortstop who played his ball in Miami, he elicited comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. While it's not fair to saddle the youngster with that comparison, he does have a high ceiling in his own right. Most scouting reports project him for mid-teens to low 20s home run power with an average in the .300 range once he fully matures.

His numbers this season may not suggest at an elite level for the offensively devoid shortstop position, but it's important to remember he played most of the year as an 18-year-old and there is a lot of projection and physical maturation to come. Believe the hype, and invest in a premium talent who could find himself atop this list next year if Harper graduates to the majors.

8: Devin Mesoraco/C/Cincinnati Reds/6-19-88/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Low-to-mid 20s home run output with a palatable average in the foreseeable future.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Mesoraco's 2011 season confirmed his 2010 breakout was the real deal. He blends patience with power, and his low strikeout rate, 16.6 percent in Triple-A, should allow him to hit for a decent average. Ramon Hernandez is no longer with the Reds, but Ryan Hanigan still is. Eventually he'll wrestle the job away from Hanigan and relegate him to a backup gig. In the short term, Hanigan's excellent receiving and defensive skills, and manager Dusty Baker's preference for playing veterans, has the makings of split duties behind the dish.

October 2011: If not for the strong play of Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan, the Reds likely would have summoned Mesoraco prior to September on the heels of his second strong year. It took him a few seasons, but last year Mesoraco began to show his offensive prowess, and that play carried over to this year.

He offers plus power for the catcher position along with an astute eye that has helped him draw walks in over 10 percent of his plate appearances this season. A reasonable comp for Mesoraco would be Carlos Santana, with a bit less pop and current on-base skills. That difference in home run power may not fully show itself as Mesoraco will be playing his home games in a more favorable ballpark for hitting home runs. Reviews of his defense are encouraging enough to expect him to catch for an extended period of time, even if it will be as no more than an adequate defender with a plus bat. In the fantasy game, all that matters is that he retains the "C" next to his name in the lineup.

9:Travis d'Arnaud/C/Toronto Blue Jays/2-10-89/ETA 2012
Forecast notes: Decent pop, but a low OBP and .250-ish average with it. A follow-up of last year's breakout would go a long way in future projection.
Scouting notes: March 2012: D'Arnaud had a career year in 2011 and began turning some of his promise into performance on the diamond. He hit for power and average, earning Double-A Eastern League MVP hardware. The next step in his offensive development will be working more walks. His 7.1 percent walk rate is on the low side, but his 21.5 percent strikeout rate is acceptable for a player that displays the type of power d'Arnaud does. I'm more bullish on d'Arnaud's batting average potential than the Forecast, but I agree with the low-to-mid-20s home run projection.

D'Arnaud will be among the first catchers to have their name called in fantasy drafts in the coming years. He should put up jaw-dropping numbers in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League before a summer promotion.

October 2011: Behind just Mesoraco and Sanchez, d'Arnaud is an exciting offensively talented catcher. J.P. Arencibia is currently catching for the parent club, and while he's made strides defensively he's still not an asset back there. d'Arnaud is the future at catcher for the Blue Jays and should dispatch of Arencibia. perhaps as soon as next year thanks to stronger defensive skills and better hitting skills than Arencibia, who relies on an all-or-nothing approach.

10: Wil Myers/OF/Kansas City Royals/12-10-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Oliver isn't particularly bullish on his fantasy stock. Modest power and modest average, but strong OBPs
Scouting notes: March 2012: As fast as Myers dropped on prospect lists after a disappointing year at Double-A, he's working on making an equally quick ascent back up after a big AFL showing. In 106 plate appearances, he walked more than he struck out, and hit .360/.481/.674.

The AFL is a hitters' haven, so the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt. More important than the specific line is that he got back to playing well and displayed he was over the ailments that dogged him during the minor league season.

Scouting reports don't uniformly expect him to hit for plus power, but the overriding feeling I get from reading them is that most believe he will. A few question his ability to hit for a high average. He already shows the plate discipline of a player much older, and should eventually slot in the heart of the Royals order. He may need to repeat Double-A and put his poor play there behind him before the Royals deem him ready for Triple-A. He could hit his way to the Show as soon as this season.

October 2011: Becoming a full-time outfielder in place of being developed as a catcher to get his bat to the big leagues faster, and then struggling at the plate in Double-A is a formula for sliding down prospect lists. It's hard to ignore his previous production, and he's young for the Double-A level, so repeating it to start next year isn't the end of the world. Most scouting gurus suggest his solid approach should lead to a high batting average and above-average power. There is some question whether his power will translate to games, but even in a down year there is a lot to like. Don't start selling his stock now.

11: Gary Sanchez/C/New York Yankees/12-2-92/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Sanchez's youth and current power appeal to Oliver. He projects to be a monster in the power categories.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Sanchez's fall in the rankings is exclusively a product of me making a conscious effort to rank players closer to big league-ready higher. That said, his ceiling is too high to drop any lower. His defense still needs work, but the seeds of becoming a decent defender are there. His power was silly for an 18-year-old. Hitting more than 30 home runs in the big leagues is not only not out of the question, but is reasonably probable.

He currently strikes out too much to hit for a high average, but he's expected to be an above-average hitter as he matures. Look for him to cut back on his whiffs as he ages. Sanchez has a chance to be a middle of the order bat in a lineup that is always loaded, in a ballpark that is a band box, at a scarce position. That's what fantasy dreams are made of.

October 2011: His projection seems optimistic, but he's succeeding as a 19-year-old and has superb scouting reports. No questions about his ability to stay behind the plate, and the only thing that prevents him from slotting in just behind the big two is that he's still in the low minors and requires some dreaming on. He possesses plus raw power that is showing itself in games already and a plus hit tool that's still developing. Time is very much on his side, and thanks to his position his ceiling is higher than any other player on this list including Harper and Trout. The Yankees struck gold signing this young Dominican-born catcher to a $3 million bonus.

12: Miguel Sano/3B/Minnesota Twins/5-11-93/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: Elite level power, but it comes at a cost. High strikeout rates will hamper batting average.
Scouting notes: March 2012: There are big questions about his future defensive home. Some suggest he can stick at third base, others expect him to fill out to the point he'll need to move to first base or right field. No one is questioning his power, though. He hits the ball with authority to all fields, and his power potential may trail only that of Harper.

It is expected he'll tone down the strikeouts some as he becomes better at recognizing pitch types. That would help his average in the upper minors and majors tremendously. With power down the last few years, Sano is a welcome sight off in the horizon.

October 2011: Sano requires quite a bit of dreaming on to justify this ranking. He crushed the ball in the Appalachian League, but it's his projection for plus-plus power at third base, that should excite people. The biggest question is where his defensive home will be when he reaches the majors. He has seen time at shortstop and third base, but is a near certainty to be pushed off shortstop as his base fills out and he loses range. He has a strong arm, so third base is possible, but he'll have to further refine his skills there to stick.

Even in the worst case scenario, where he is moved to the corner outfield, which is what Kevin Goldstein expects, his power potential puts him a cut above the rest.

13: Trevor Bauer/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/1/17/91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Oliver suggests he may be capable of a 3.5 BB/9 and 9.0 K/9, and I'm inclined to agree based on scouting reports.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Bauer is an unconventional work horse who won't be long for the minors. He already saw time in Double-A in 2011, and should open the year as part of a stacked rotation at Triple-A Reno. The Diamondbacks rotation is full, but the back end has the potential for some turnover during the season. Joe Saunders and Josh Collmenter may have short leashes if Bauer and Tyler Skaggs toy with Triple-A hitters as I expect them to.

Bauer has a chance to be an impact player in strikeouts right out of the gate. The rest of his fantasy contributions may be inconsistent as a rookie, but he has the deep repertoire and pitching acumen to keep his rookie clunkers to a minimum.

October 2011: His unorthodox workout regimen and delivery may have caused some concern for teams in the draft, but the Diamondbacks didn't hesitate to select the UCLA Bruins' best pitcher last year, better than No. 1 overall selection Gerrit Cole. Jim Callis of Baseball America had him rated as the top college pitcher, and had him behind only high school flame-thrower Dylan Bundy when rating this draft class' arms.

A right-handed pitcher, he throws his fastball with low-to-mid 90s velocity and can reach back and dial it up to 95-96 on occasion. According to Project Prospect, he throws both a two-seamer and a four-seamer, and both are plus pitches. All scouting outlets seem to agree he throws a plus breaking ball, with some referring to it as a curveball and others a slider. Baseball America suggests he throws both and even has a split finger in his tool belt.

It is also universally agreed that he throws a change-up. Such a mix of pitches gives him the goods necessary to toy with hitters and go through lineups multiple times. Don't be scared off by his quirky, high-torque delivery. A little guy from the University of Washington has done okay for himself in San Francisco in spite of the same concerns.

14: Julio Teheran/SP/Atlanta Braves/2-9-90/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: Strong walk rates should help him contribute in WHIP. ERA looks solid, but strikeout rate is nothing to write home about.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Those who were “disappointed,” in Teheran's 2011 season need to look no further than his date of birth and level on the minor league ladder to realize he's just fine. A repeat of Triple-A could help him develop consistency in his breaking ball, and with it, help him increase his strikeout rate.

He may not be awarded that opportunity as there is talk of him being in the mix with a host of others for a big league rotation spot. Don't be dissuaded by a rough start if that's the case. His plus to plus-plus fastball and change-up are already big league ready, and when he refines one of his breaking balls, either slider or curveball, he'll really take off. This is a very good prospect, and a very young one at that. Patience, young grasshopper, patience.

October 2011: Just 20 years old this season and already made his major league debut. Strong Minor League Equivalents are supported by scouting reports that love his stuff, which includes a premium fastball and two secondary pitches, curveball and change-up, that project to be above average. Not a finished product, but ready for full time major league duty. The best of a crop of strong pitchers in the Braves system.

15: Tyler Skaggs/SP/Arizona Diamondbacks/7-13-91/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Breakout with his “stuff” in 2011 fully supported by his MLEs. Excellent control with better than average strikeout potential.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Skaggs is an example of projectable velocity coming to fruition. Now that he throws his fastball in the low-90s regularly, some scouts suggest he has No. 1 starter potential.

He hides the baseball well and that makes the velocity play up further. His curveball is a devastating knockout offering, and his change-up is average or better. Skaggs' control and command are top flight. Could someone explain to me why the Diamondbacks felt compelled to re-sign Joe Saunders? Skaggs will open in Triple-A, and he should get his first taste of the majors this season.

October 2011: Skaggs was the prime get in the Dan Haren deal with the Angels. He's a southpaw with a fastball in the upper 80s to low 90s with a frame that may allow him to add a tick or two (though no in-season scouting reports around the 'net suggest that has been the case yet). He also throws a curveball that Baseball America graded as the best in the Diamondbacks system coming into the season, and a change-up. His strong play has moved him up prospect rankings and allowed him to surpass teammate Jarrod Parker in most onlookers' eyes.

16: Shelby Miller/SP/St. Louis Cardinals/10-10-90/ETA:2012
Forecast notes:: Breakout season, but walk rate needs further refinement. MLE of 4.3 BB/9 in 2010 regressed to 4.5 BB/9 this year. His strikeout rate remained elite while climbing levels at 8.4 K/9 this year.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Part of the Thrice-P (Post Pujols Plan) in St. Louis, Miller will eventually help ease the pain of the loss of arguably the best hitter in baseball. Miller is a flame-throwing Texan who has breezed through the Cardinals system since making his pro debut in 2010. He struck out better than a batter an inning in 86.2 innings in Double-A, and is knocking on the door of the majors. Triple-A is next on tap, and a major league call-up in the summer or September is looming.

October 2011: Miller is a young pitcher with front line starter stuff that supports his projected high strikeout rate at the major league level and current production in the minors. His best pitch is his heater, but it is supported by a 12-6 curveball and a developing change-up. Positive scouting reports from multiple outlets plus solid forecast. Toss in his current organization, which calls the National League and a home run-suppressing Busch Stadium home, and it is easy to envision him leap-frogging some of the pitchers in front of him.

17: Anthony Rendon/3B/Washington Nationals/6-6-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes:Projects to hit for a useful average and power while posting a strikeout rate not typically associated with a player with pop.
Scouting notes: March 2012: If you're looking for a dark horse to top this list next year, Rendon fits the bill. Shoulder problems sapped him of much of his power his junior season, but when he's healthy, he stings the ball. He displays big league-ready plate discipline and strike zone recognition. Instead of playing in the AFL, the Nationals opted to have him continue rehab and strengthening exercises on his shoulder while receiving instruction. All signs appear good for a healthy 2012.

The Nationals signed Ryan Zimmerman to an extension late in February, so Rendon will need to be developed away from the hot corner if he's going to be anything more than a blue chip trade prospect for the organization. It will be interesting to see how the Nationals brass handles the situation, but these things have a tendency to sort themselves out.

Rendon is a talented player whom Jim Callis of Baseball America called the top amateur draft prospect in 2011. Thus far, he has taken ground balls at second base, shortstop and third base. Reports from the Nationals are that he looks good at each position, but it is hard for me to believe he'll be able to cut it at shortstop. If he can hack it, then his star will shine even brighter in fantasy baseball circles.

October 2011: A strained shoulder caused Rendon to log a great deal of time at the designated hitter position for the Rice Owls this season and likely contributed to his drop in power production. Teams appeared to be scared off by his medicals as he slid to the Nationals at pick six. I'm not privy to his medical records, but find it encouraging that the Nationals were confident enough in him to snap him up as a top-10 selection. If there were no medical red flags he'd be higher on this list, though.

With Ryan Zimmerman already at third base, Rendon may be forced to switch positions, with second base being a likely home. The Nationals may also opt to develop him as a third baseman, where his skills grade out as plus, and cross the bridge of determining what to do with him when they get there. Rendon sat atop Baseball America's pre-draft rankings, no small feat as many pundits viewed this draft as one of the more talented and deep in recent years.

18: Dylan Bundy/SP/Baltimore Orioles/11-15-92/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: 2011 draftee out of high school without a current projection
Scouting notes:March 2012: Bundy is widely considered the best prep pitcher drafted since Josh Beckett. He has a high ceiling, present- day plus stuff, and polish beyond his years. Keith Law has gone as far as to suggest he wouldn't be surprised to see Bundy reach Double-A this season. That would be one heck of an accomplishment for a 19-year-old in his first year of professional baseball.

As you'd expect reading that ringing endorsement, Bundy is expected to zoom through the system. With some professional experience, and the graduation of Matt Moore forthcoming, the perfect storm could be brewing for Bundy to move into the top prospect pitcher spot the next time this list is updated.

October 2011: Bundy rates 28th on this list based entirely on scouting reports, as he has no professional experience or forecast projection. He's has a power arm that throws at 94-96 mph and has touched 100 mph repeatedly. The most encouraging part of any Bundy scouting report regards his secondary offerings. His worst is a change-up that is described by most industry folks as average. His other secondary offerings are a plus power curveball and a plus cutter (Sickels describes the pitch as a slider, but Baseball America, Goldstein and Law describe it as a cutter). He can throw all his pitches for strikes, and is advanced for a prep pitcher. It's a leap of faith tossing a guy with no pro experience this high, but his arsenal sounds like it has all the makings of fantasy ace.

19: Ryan Lavarnway/C/Boston Red Sox/8-7-87/ETA: Arrived
Forecast notes: While he won't derail fantasy team batting averages, he'll leave a bit to be desired. His power is excellent, and his MLEs have gotten better every year while moving up the minor league ladder.
Scouting notes: March 2012: This it the point in the list where I'm obligated to remind readers this is a top 100 prospect list for fantasy baseball purposes. That means, his defense only has to be passable enough for him to stick at catcher, not win a Fielding Bible Award.

Lavarnway would be able to get away with being a below average defender at a position often noted for defense because he can rake. He hits for power, and understands the value of taking a walk. His strikeout rates have been fairly good for a slugger, but he still isn't going to find himself in the running for any batting titles.

The bat is big league ready, but the Red Sox are expected to open him in Triple-A, and carry Jarrod Saltalamacchia as the starting catcher with Kelly Shoppach serving as the backup. Shoppach has hit below .200 the last two seasons, and should serve as nothing more than a place holder until Lavarnway forces his way onto the Red Sox active roster.

David Ortiz is under contract only through this season. That could leave the door open to Lavarnway splitting his time between designated hitter and catcher next year, after serving in a part time role the second half of this year.

October 2011: Lavarnway's bat is tremendous, and if it can stick at catcher it is elite. When he was drafted, most felt he had nearly a zero percent shot to stick there, but he has worked hard and improved by most accounts. He still has a large number of detractors, but at least he now has a shot. The Red Sox dealt Tim Federowicz, a prospect catcher with a strong defensive reputation but no bat. That may be an indicator that the Red Sox have faith in Lavarnway sticking behind the plate in the short term.

If Theo Epstein re-signs David Ortiz to serve as the team's designated hitter, Lavarnway's only immediate path to playing time, barring injury, will be as a catcher.

20: Xander Bogaerts/SS/Boston Red Sox/10-1-92/ETA: 2015
Forecast notes: He's a few years from being a big leaguer, but Oliver believes he should provide fantasy relevant power by 2015.
Scouting notes: March 2012: First things first: Bogaerts is almost certain to outgrow the shortstop position. He has the arm for third base; the only question is whether he'll also outgrow the hot corner.

His bat will play anywhere, though, and his full season debut was impressive. Bogaerts assaulted baseballs in Low-A, ripping 16 home runs, two triples, and 14 doubles in 296 plate appearances. That power production resulted in a robust .249 ISO. After sporting an outstanding walk and strikeout rates in Rookie Level ball in 2010, both were merely acceptable in 2011. He has plenty of time to improve both rates. He'll open next year as a 19 year old in High-A. If he continues denting bleacher seats, the Red Sox will be forced to decide how aggressively to challenge the youngster. I'm sure that's a decision they'd love to be in the position to have to make.

21: Jean Segura/SS/Los Angeles Angels/3-17-90/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: MLEs regressed for a second consecutive year. Oliver doesn't like Segura as much as the scouting reports do.
Scouting notes: March 2012: A torn hamstring derailed much of Segura's 2011 campaign. The most promising part of his abbreviated season is that he took to transitioning from second base to shortstop quite well—well enough that he'll continue to be developed there. He was healthy enough to play in the AFL, and is on target to open the year in Double-A.

A healthy Segura hits ropes from pole to pole, and efficiently swipes bases in bunches (102 stolen bases with 25 caught stealing in his professional career). He'll occasionally flash a bit of home run power, but is more of a doubles hitter. The Angels' incumbent shortstop, Erick Aybar, is due to hit free agency at season's end. After a big offseason of spending, the club may not be able to afford to re-sign him to a long term deal. The decision could be a made a whole lot easier if Segura plays well, and perhaps most importantly, stays healthy in Double-A this year.

October 2011: A player scouts like better than the Forecaster. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus noted in April that he looked good making the transition from second base to shortstop, something that would help his value greatly. He may fill out and lose range, leading to a move back to second base, but at either middle infield position he'll hold fantasy value if his tools develop. He should hit for average power, with an above-average hitting and and above-average speed if everything falls into place.

22: Jameson Taillon/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/11-18-91/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Too small a sample size to draw firm conclusions, but he's a young flame-thrower who's striking hitters out while pounding the zone.
Scouting notes: March 2012: The Pirates handled Taillon with kid gloves all year, keeping him on a strict innings and pitch count limit, and restricting his use of secondary pitches. His focus on fastball control and command could pay huge dividends going forward. Taillon already struck out a healthy number of batters without the benefit of leaning on his full repertoire often. We could be in store for an increase to his 9.42 K/9 this year when the Pirates loosen the reins on this thoroughbred.

Armed with a mid-90s fastball that lights up radar guns even higher than that when he needs it, and two plus breaking balls, Taillon has an ace ceiling. His change-up lags behind his other pitches, but he's working on that. The rate at which his change-up develops could coincide directly with the rate at which he ascends the minor league ladder. If he proves as quick a study of his change-up as he did of commanding his fastball, he could move quickly.

October 2011: Apparently the Pirates said they'd have taken Taillon over Harper if they'd had the top pick. Seems like that might be a creative way for the Pirates to give their 2010 draft pick a pat on the back, but it also speaks to Taillon's talent. He has a power arsenal with a blazing heater, a hammer curveball and a wipe-out slider. He has acclimated himself to pro baseball just fine with a tremendous 94:20 strikeout-to-walk rate in 88.2 innings in Single-A. As a pitcher drafted out of high school, and as part of a thrifty ballclub, it's likely the Pirates will bring him along slowly.

23: Gerrit Cole/SP/Pittsburgh Pirates/9-8-90/ETA: 2012
Forecast notes: Two good college seasons but walk rate leaves a bit to be desired.
Scouting notes: March 2012: How can anyone not love Cole's stuff? He throws a heater that routinely lights up three digits on the radar gun, a plus-plus slider, and an average change-up that shows promise of developing into yet another dominating plus offering.

The stuff has never been the problem. The problem is that Cole has been merely good, and not utterly dominant. In many ways, his play in the AFL is a microcosm of a college career that often left scouts scratching their heads. He pitched 15 innings, allowing five earned runs, walking four, and striking out 16. He was lights out in four of his five games pitched, but was taken deep by Nick Franklin in the Rising Stars game. He allowed three of his five earned runs, and four of his 14 base runners in that forgettable 2.1 inning start.

Cole has the ceiling of an ace, and should he stay healthy, a reasonably high floor with his present pitch repertoire. A good professional debut in the minors should result in a September call-up.

October 2011: Cole's stuff is much better than his performance in college (which was pretty darn good). He throws a four-seam fastball in the mid-90s and can touch a hair under 100 mph, and a two-seam fastball that's a few ticks slower. He also throws a plus slider and a change-up that some describe as plus-plus. Law goes as far as to lump it at the same level as Johan Santana's and Clay Buchholz's change-ups. Quite high praise.

Even more interesting is pre-draft talk from Law as well as Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus that suggested Cole might be as good as, or perhaps even better in the majors than Stephen Strasburg. If that's the case, this ranking will look foolishly low.

24: Michael Choice/OF/Oakland A's/11-10-89/ETA: 2013
Forecast notes: Breakout 2010, but in 2011 walks and power have fallen back. He did reduce his strikeout rate, and is expected to hit for power.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Many folks are nonplussed by the A's offseason. The rebuilding A's added to a position, outfield, that they seemed to have depth at in the upper minors. The true blue chip outfield prospect will begin the year at Double-A, though, and things will sort themselves out by the time he's ready for his major league debut.

Choice is a slugging outfielder who is currently playing center field, but is expected to shift to a corner. He'll draw walks, and visit the seats often, but he'll also strike out regularly. He cut his strikeouts down from his sky high 35.5 percent rate in 2010 to 24.7 percent in 2011. Choice has a long swing, not unlike most power hitters, and with long swings come strikeouts.

Promising for the future, though, in a small sample, was his stellar play in the AFL. He pared down his strikeout rate to 15.2 percent in 79 plate appearances. That reduced strikeout rate did not come at the expense of power or his walk rate, either. Even if the gains there don't carry over fully, Choice's power will make him a big time fantasy baseball prospect. He'll be challenged by Double-A pitching to begin his 2012 campaign. How he responds to facing advanced pitching and better breaking balls (something he has at times struggled with) will go a long way in determining his time table for advancement.

October 2011: The epitome of Three True Outcomes, Choice has the feel of a younger version of Chris Carter. It would be nice to see him continue to cut back on one of the true outcomes (strikeouts), while increasing another (walks), but his power isn't in question at all.

Parks lauds his power potential and bat speed, but notes that he'll always strike out a lot. Goldstein also gushes about the power. In fact, whatever outlet for prospect info you choose to turn to, the story is the same: His power is elite but he'll need to continue to fine-tune his hit tool to succeed at the higher levels of the minors and the majors. His reduction in strikeouts from last year to this year, and from pre-All-Star break to post-All-Star break, is enough reason to buy into Choice.

25: Rymer Liriano/OF/San Diego Padres/6-20-91/ETA: 2014
Forecast notes: MLEs aren't pretty, but they took a quantum leap in 2011 from his sub-Mendoza line 2010 MLE. He's a few seasons away, and would be aided greatly by cutting down on his strikeouts.
Scouting notes: March 2012: Liriano is the top prospect in a very deep and revamped Padres farm sysem. Unlike some of the upper echelon Padres prospects, he is home grown and developed. He was a 2007 signee out of the Dominican Republic.

The toolsy outfielder has been a slow study, but that shouldn't be concerning given his youth. In consecutive years he opened at a minor league level too advanced for his present skill set, and he struggled. That resulted in a demotions both years, and consequently, better play from Liriano at the lower level.

Last season marked a big leap in the transition of tools to skills for him. He did a bit of everything in Low-A, hitting a juicy .319/.383/.499 with 12 home runs, eight triples, 30 doubles and a respectable 47:95 walk-to-strikeout ratio. Most impressive from a fantasy perspective, he stole 65 bases in 85 chances (76.5 percent success rate).

Liriano epitomizes what it means to be a five tool player. He's a well built six-foot and 230 pound athlete who has a chance to be an impact player in all five standard fantasy hitting categories. The ETA above takes into consideration his struggles when moved too quickly, but if the light bulb that went on last year remains lit, he could press for a late 2013 big league debut.

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 3:45am

Thursday, March 08, 2012

Dollar a day: Mike Aviles

Marco Scutaro and Jed Lowrie have been shipped outta town, leaving Mike Aviles as the primary shortstop for the first time in his career. Go ahead, let it out: Wahoo!

Aviles is a contact hitter with a diverse skill-set better utilized in fantasy than in real life. But we don’t care how the Red Sox make out from the Aviles signing—at least not in this sphere. The better riddle to dwell on is whether to spend a finite dollar on Mike Aviles in crunch time.

Aviles has been good for 14 steals in each of the past two seasons, which were made up of 424 and 286 at-bats, respectively. Those numbers pro-rate to 20 in 2010 and 29 in 2011, and a middle ground would be a good estimate, in my humble opinion.

Aviles has the pop too. Haven’t you heard? For a 5-foot-10, 204-pound small fry (don’t forget our context here), Aviles can clear the fences adeptly. He hit eight dingers in his 2010 stint and seven last years. Oh, and he hit 10 in 2008.

Lastly, but not least, Aviles can hit for average. His .288/.318/.419 is somewhat unimpressive, especially when the last two numbers are considered, but luckily, many of you will need to consider only his batting average.

A 10-homer, 25-steal campaign supported by a .290 average is nothing to scoff at. Mike Aviles, ladies and gentlemen, is nothing to scoff at.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 12:41am

Wednesday, March 07, 2012

Dollar a day: Mike Minor

We’re not gonna take it
No, we ain’t gonna take it
We’re not gonna take it
Anymore…

Twisted Sister’s famous tune was actually about Mike Minor; look it up. The context, of course, was the Minor kid's saying, in a February Atlanta-Journal Constitution article in reference to the Atlanta Braves: "If they dont have room for me here, then there's no reason they shouldn't trade me or just do something with me.”

Minor is an ultra-talented lefty with high strikeout potential and excellent peripheral stats. His 3.51 FIP and 3.63 xFIP supplement a 8.76 strikeout-per-nine-innings rate in 123 major league innings. Pitching in the somewhat-friendly confines of Turner Field, with a halfway adept—at worst—defense behind him, and he should see his unlucky balls in play average drop and incidentally, his WHIP.

So, what we have on our hands is a potential five category producer—the potential in the last category is very much in question, but let’s pretend his WHIP can be more than just respectable, which is the expectation—pitching for a contender, with a rotation spot with his name on it.

Minor took a step forward in the second half, harnessing his fastball—which has given him the most trouble in his brief major league career thus far, with the lowest of his four pitch values—and sending his strikeout-per-nine innings rate in the right direction. His 7.06 K/9 pre-All Star break turned into a 9.34 K/9 mark afterwards, and his walk rate fell more than 1.25 per nine.

These are legitimate steps forward for the young southpaw, and don’t be surprised if he challenges for 175 strikeouts. Just call him Mike … Major.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:13am

Tuesday, March 06, 2012

Dollar a day: Mat Gamel

Bruised, beaten, tattered, torn. Mat Gamel has been thrown around as a potential masher for years now, and has been hanging out in Triple-A since late 2008. Which, with some Swiss-cheese logic, might mean he’s a crappy nobody worthy of nothing like fantasy consideration.

Gamel, a third baseman who can fill in at first, has been blocked by Prince Fielder and Casey McGehee in past years, but now will fill the glaring first base void in Milwaukee. A close look at his Triple-A numbers and projections will clearly paint him as an enticing sleeper.

At-bats – 493
Games – 128
Homers – 28
Runs – 90
RBIs – 98
Average – .310
BABIP – .326

Homers/162 GP – 35
Runs/162 GP – 113 
RBIs/162 GP – 124

So, where’s the knock, you may ask? This kid looks ready to mash! Not so quick, some say. He has 171 unimpressive major league at-bats to his name, which seem to play heavily into the general perception of Gamel as a bust. His line of .222/.309/.374 is by no means impressive, but writing off a player based on such a sample size is foolish… even when the elephant in the room is a 34.5 percent strikeout rate.

His first go-round at Triple-A brought up legitimate strikeout concerns; players who have K rates above 25 percent in the minors usually fade to obscurity and rarely crack the majors. He tamed his rate with more exposure, though, and his second Triple-A appearance—this one in 2010 for 82 games—saw a much more reasonable rate trimmed by exactly 10 percent. Last year, the mark fell to a (dare I say) impressive 15.4 percent rate.

Always evident in the minors was his tendency to take the walk. Gamel, like fellow minor-league success story Paul Goldschmidt, mixes high walk rates with disconcerting strikeout rates. When they go hand in hand, the strikeouts are less threatening to one’s career prospects. A nugget of optimism: Gamel’s small sample size walk rate is 10.3 percent.

What can be gleaned from his brief cameos in the majors? His five home runs, supported by a normal 10.6 home run to fly-ball rate, extrapolate to 17 homers in the majors. Bill James has Gamel down for 19 round-trippers, and I could be coerced into taking the over.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 10:39am

Spring training position battles

It’s the most wonderful time of the year! Spring training is in full swing; we have games to watch, box scores to pore over and cheat sheets to finalize.

You can’t put too much stock into spring numbers, though it can be reassuring to see players you are high on playing well. While some big springs may signify a potential breakout (Mike Morse, 2011), there are countless examples of players who had monster preseasons and then faded as the schedule turned to April.

While most of the early happenings in the spring can be considered white noise, one important thing that you should pay attention to is undecided position battles. Here are a few such situations that I am closely monitoring.

Angels DH/third baseman: Kendrys Morales vs. Mark Trumbo vs. Alberto Callaspo: This battle is more predicated on the health of its participants than on-field performance. Consensus seems to be that if Morales is healthy, he will be the full-time DH and clean-up hitter. If this is the case, he makes a very intriguing mid-round option as a first baseman or corner infielder.

Assuming Morales is ready to go and DH’ing, Trumbo and Callaspo will battle for playing time at third base. As impressive as Trumbo’s power numbers were in his rookie season, his .291 on-base percentage was abysmal. I’m also skeptical of his ability to play a passable defensive third base. As of now, I would expect Callaspo to get the majority of the starts at the position, with Trumbo bouncing around among third, first, DH and the corner outfield spots.

Athletics first baseman: Brandon Allen vs. Daric Barton vs. Chris Carter vs. Kila Ka'aihue: Daric Barton is the incumbent at the position, but was awful in his 67 games last season and is battling injury issues. He has always gotten on base at a decent clip and plays good defense, but he isn’t an option in fantasy leagues.

Allen is the guy that we all want to see win this job outright. He has massive power potential, and got off to a great start, hitting a grand slam and driving home seven runs on Saturday. If given full time at-bats in 2012, I could see Allen providing 20+ homers and 70+ RBI. He may be a drain on your batting average, but is still well worthy of a late-round flyer.

Carter and Ka’aihue have always clobbered Triple-A pitching, but are running out of chances to prove themselves at the major league level. They both have big time power potential, and both would be worth a look if they were to secure the job.

Tigers second baseman: Ryan Raburn vs. Ramon Santiago vs. Brandon Inge: As a long-time Tigers fan, I want nothing more than to see Inge fall flat on his face and lose this job. He’s not a fantasy option, even in the deepest of leagues. While he is a favorite of the fans, the smart fantasy player doesn’t want to see him on the field.

Santiago similarly isn’t an attractive fantasy option. He has struggled every time he’s been handed full time at-bats, and I doubt big things are coming in his age 32 season. If you get excited about a .260 average with six home runs and two stolen bases, hope that Ramon wins the job.

The favorite of the fantasy player is Raburn. Again in 2011, Raburn turned in an absolutely dreadful first half and then exploded after the All-Star break. He has the potential to be an impact player at second base, and given a full season could easily top 20 home runs. Plus, he already has two long balls and six RBI this spring. He’s heating up early this year!

Red Sox shortstop: Mike Aviles vs. Nick Punto vs. Jose Iglesias: Aviles is the guy fantasy players want to see win this competition. While he’s the worst defender of the bunch, he brings an interesting power/speed combo. If he wins the job outright, I could see him hitting 12-15 homers with 15-20 steals. Throw in the fact that he’s a .288 career hitter, and he has the potential to be a solid contributor across the board.

Neither Punto or Iglesias does enough to warrant consideration in most mixed leagues, and I would be disappointed to see either one wrestle the job away from Aviles.

These are just a few things to keep in mind as you are finishing up your draft board. Morales, Allen, Raburn and Aviles are all big time potential impact players in 2012 should they win their projected battles.

Any other situations around the league you are monitoring? Leave 'em here or on Twitter (@DaveShovein) and I’ll be happy to give my input on how I think those will play out!

Posted by Dave Shovein at 1:16am

Elvis impersonators

Shortstop is one of those "scarce" positions in fantasy baseball that tends to generate lots of polarization. From the inherently risky high end choices to the low upside bargain buys, even experts have a hard time agreeing on a strategic approach to the position. As much as ever, this year there are three shortstops at the top—Troy Tulowitzki, Hanley Ramirez, and Jose Reyes—and everybody else. So if you're among the majority of us who will wind up with someone from the "everybody else" category, the question becomes where to find the value among these lesser number-sixes. Here's a look at three different players who, despite drastically different costs, should provide similar value.

Elvis Andrus

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011	150	665	5	96	60	37	12	75.5%	.279	.347	.361	8.4%	11.1%	.312	.082	4.8%	55.8%	6.4
Career	443	1880	11	256	135	102	33	75.6%	.271	.340	.343	8.5%	13.1%	.312	.073	3.8%	57.5%	6.6

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	658	4	79	45	33	10	76.7%	.269	.334	.345	8.8%	12.6%	.295	.076
ZiPS	700	4	87	50	37	13	74.0%	.275	.348	.350	9.3%	11.9%	.312	.075
James	628	4	93	54	39	13	75.0%	.281	.351	.357	8.9%	11.9%	.318	.076

Elvis Andrus is a fine player who provides solid rotisserie value thanks to good wheels and a secure position near the top of a powerful Texas Rangers lineup. He generates plenty of runs by making contact and drawing a healthy dose of walks ahead of Josh Hamilton, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, and Nelson Cruz. He even got to hit behind Ian Kinsler last year, too, giving him more RBI opportunities than most speed-first players. Best of all, he doesn't even turn 24 years old until the end of August, so his best is likely yet to come. So why am I a bit bearish on this young semi-stud?

First things first; 60 RBI is about the ceiling for a low-powered top of the order hitter. He reached that total last season thanks to Ian Kinsler staying healthy and in the leadoff spot all year. Unless Andrus finds his way to double digit homers, that number is more likely to move down than up.

You can also say the same thing about the 96 runs. If he were to find himself leading off instead of Kinsler he'd have the potential for a triple-digit run total, but that would reduce his RBI potential. He's also no more than a break-even basestealer. With a 75.5% career success rate and a virtually identical mark in 2011, the possibility of even a slight increase to 40 steals isn't very likely—especially since Ron Washington has shown a willingness to issue red lights to inefficient basestealers in the past.

Beyond that, the most alarming thing about Andrus is that he has an absolutely terrible time getting the ball in the air. His career ground ball rate is 57.5% and he's been one of the eight most frequent worm burners among qualified hitters in all three of his full seasons, hitting balls into the ground at least 55% of the time in each one. This severely limits his power potential. While this is in part a way for him to try and take better advantage of his speed, he's also yet to show a knack for the absurdly high batting average on balls in play you see with the few ground ball machines who have turned themselves into true fantasy assets.

When you look at the stat sheets on Derek Jeter, Ichiro Suzuki, Michael Bourn, and Howie Kendrick, while you routinely see high ground ball rates, you also see BABIPs that vary from .325 to as high as .390. In fact, Jeter has only once in his career posted a BABIP below Andrus' career rate of .312, and that was Jeter's miserable 2010 season, when it was .307. So without double digit homers or a BABIP that could dwarf the league average, Andrus' solid contact rate alone won't be enough to provide a superior batting average. His average won't hurt you, but without quite a bit of luck or a big change in his approach it won't suddenly spike and become an asset either.

What we have in Andrus is a two-category player who won't even quite challenge the league leaders in either of his good categories. Is it possible that he starts hitting a few more balls in the air and driving his fly balls further? Might he increase his BABIP or improve his success rate on the basepaths? Is it inconceivable that he might do this all at once? No, not inconceivable, but neither is it worth it to pay a premium for that somewhat remote possibility.

Dee Gordon

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011 (Triple-A)	70	313	0	51	24	30	4	88.2%	.333	.373	.410	5.8%	12.8%	.382	.076	--	--	9
2011 (MLB)	56	233	0	34	11	24	7	77.4%	.304	.325	.362	3.0%	11.6%	.345	.058	0.0%	55.9%	7.7

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	623	2	75	40	40	13	75.5%	.267	.304	.333	4.5%	15.9%	.311	.066
ZiPS	679	1	86	34	55	19	74.3%	.271	.310	.339	4.7%	15.8%	.323	.068
James	581	0	72	30	42	12	77.8%	.270	.301	.32	4.3%	13.4%	.314	.050

Dee Gordon is fast. He's very fast. He's so fast, his father (former relief ace Tom Gordon) should be ashamed for having already laid claim to nickname "Flash". Dee's 9.0 Spd score would have lead the Triple-A Pacific Coast League in 2011 had he qualified for the batting title. Even with only 313 plate appearances he tied for fourth in the league with 30 steals. He loves to run, and while his success rate in the minors fluctuated a bit, last year he managed to avoid getting thrown out an outstanding 88.2% of the time in Triple-A and a still solid 77.4% of the time in the majors.

Even better, he's already been tabbed the Dodgers' leadoff hitter, so he has a chance at 700 plate appearances as long as he holds that spot down for the duration of the season. Don Mattingly may still be a bit green as far as managers go, but he didn't give Matt Kemp any kind of restrictions following a poor showing on the basepaths in 2010, and the organization has been very aggressive with its handling of Gordon thus far. He'll have free reign to run as much as he pleases.

Gordon should steal more bases in 2012 than Elvis Andrus, and it may not even be close. He also made contact at a similar rate last year and likewise put most of his balls in play on the ground. Although the projection systems conservatively (and wisely, given the lack of data) regress his expected strikeout rate, Gordon also has the advantage of hitting from the left side of the dish. That means a shorter distance from home to first.

Combined with his superior speed, he should have an easier time leveraging his tendency to hit the ball on the ground into a naturally high BABIP. This is why the projections call for the two players to post similar batting averages, though it must be understood that there's far less certainly with Gordon. He could continue to avoid striking out while putting up a .350 BABIP and yield a monster batting average, or he might start whiffing more frequently and popping up too often and wind up with a poor one, or he could find himself anywhere in between.

That's the good news. The bad news is that he may not hit a single home run in 2012, and hitting atop a more modest National League lineup will mean fewer RBI opportunities than Andrus. Gordon's low walk rate also raises a red flag. At the very least, it implies there's a lower floor to his run scoring potential, though hitting leadoff helps offset that difference.

Overall, while Gordon could steal 10 or even 20 more bases than Andrus, Elvis will give you the benefit of a few extra homers and RBI and a far less volatile projection.

Erick Aybar

Statistics

	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO	HR/FB	GB%	Spd
2011	143	605	10	71	59	30	6	83.3%	.279	.322	.421	5.1%	11.2%	.301	.142	7.0%	48.0%	7.2
Career	629	2376	24	286	206	78	27	74.3%	.276	.319	.379	5.1%	12.1%	.307	.104	4.1%	49.1%	6.2

Projections

	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	SB%	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB%	K%	BABIP	ISO
Oliver	519	6	66	45	19	7	73.1%	.270	.310	.376	5.4%	11.8%	.291	.106
ZiPS	606	8	74	53	24	7	77.4%	.275	.320	.392	5.3%	11.7%	.302	.117
James	583	8	74	53	26	10	72.2%	.274	.320	.390	5.5%	12.2%	.303	.116

Erick Aybar isn't as sexy as the King of Rock n' Roll. He's also not as Flashy as Flash Jr. He is, however, an established talent who provides similar production. Best of all, he seems to be getting better.

Like Andrus and Gordon, Aybar makes contact at an above average rate, has good speed, and is likely to hit at or near the top of his lineup. He doesn't walk as frequently as Andrus and he doesn't have have Gordon's off-the-charts speed, but he does have a few things going for him that his counterparts don't.

First, Aybar has always had a touch of power. Though his career HR/FB is a modest 4.1%, that number plays stronger since he isn't nearly as allergic to hitting balls in the air. He also managed to jump his HR/FB up to a career best 7% in 2011, bringing with it the expected spike in ISO from his career .104 mark to .142. In fact, in 2011 he set career bests in homers, doubles, strikeout rate, steals, stolen bases success rate, runs and RBI, so as far as fantasy goes, he literally improved across the board.

He's actually attempted more steals and improved his success rate in three consecutive seasons, which bodes very well for his speed projection. His manager, Mike Scioscia, doesn't even seem to understand the meaning of the phrase "red light," so no worries on that front. And now, just to put a cherry on top, he'll have Albert Pujolsr batting just a few spots behind him in the order, giving him even more run scoring potential than he already had.

If there's so much reason to be excited about Aybar in 2012, then why does it seem as if the projection systems are slightly bearish on his prospects? There's certainly concern that his power increase was more statistical noise than actual improvement. After all, he was already 27, which is a bit on the old side for a true breakout (though hardly unheard of). Otherwise, it really comes down to just one issue: playing time.

Playing time is one of the most difficult things to project, and the three systems listed here all think Aybar is due significantly fewer trips to the plate than Elvis Andrus or Dee Gordon. If you prorate his projected numbers closer to 650 plate appearances, you'll see where the excitement is coming from. The problem is, he's never come particularly close to reaching that number. In fact he only cracked 600 plate appearances for the first time in 2011, and even then just barely.

This is the gamble that comes with Aybar, and it's a gamble that I'm willing to make. He seemed to finally earn Mike Sciosia's trust in 2011, taking over the lion's share of leadoff duties in the second half of the year. I'm cautiously optimistic that he can parlay that trust into an increased workload this season. His combination of glovework, spike in offensive production, switch hitting ability in a right hand dominant lineup, and the offense's roster squeeze at other positions create a situation ripe with opportunity, both for Aybar himself and fantasy owners alike.

Not to mention, he's in a contract year. Though I'm not convinced that type of thing has any kind of vast influence on a player's overall production, it may motivate someone like Aybar to attempt a few more steals than he would have otherwise or to more vehemently try to talk his way into the lineup on days he would have otherwise had off. Even if 2011 goes down as the best year of his career, and 2012 is simply an encore, there still could be plenty of value to be had here.

Average Draft Results

	Mock Draft Central	Yahoo! Snake	Yahoo! Auction	ESPN Snake	ESPN Auction	CBS
Elvis Andrus	43.98	47.3	$21	63.5	$14.70	100.34
Dee Gordon	144.99	149.4	$6.80	134.7	$6.90	178
Erick Aybar	145.94	163.30	$4.30	144	$5.60	167.84

There's quite a bit of dissent between the different markets on how to treat these three shortstops. Particularly in the case of Andrus, you'll see him going as early as the mid fourth round at Mock Draft Central and as late as the ninth round at CBS. There's a bit more consensus on the values of Gordon and Aybar—both are most frequently going between between the 12th and 15th rounds—but there's tons of disagreement on how these three should be valued in relation to each other.

Of course, while one should never expect a draft to follow the market patterns too closely, these variations present three distinct scenarios that might be found in any given draft. To wrap things up, lets consider how to handle each situation.

Mock Draft Central/Yahoo!

Mock Draft Central and Yahoo! yield similar results, so we can view them in tandem. In both cases, the average draft position for Andrus is more than 100 picks earlier than that of Gordon or Aybar, and in Yahoo! Auctions the difference in price is around $14 to $17. This is far too aggressive on Andrus—he's not a $20 player without substantial improvement over his established norms—and not nearly aggressive enough on Gordon and Aybar. Let someone else invest that kind of cost in Andrus while you get one of the others on the cheap.

Even if you're not totally comfortable taking the plunge on Gordon or Aybar, you can also pick up someone like Zack Cozart for $1 or with your last pick in the draft. You would have little chance of losing more value than you'd lose by paying $20 for Andrus, and much more potential for profit.

ESPN

Of the three scenarios, ESPN comes the closest to getting this one right. Drafters at ESPN not only place a considerably lower value on Andrus than those at Yahoo!, they also place slightly higher value on Gordon and Aybar. A $15 bid or a sixth round draft selection is about right given Andrus' expected return value. If he happens to fall any lower than that, he actually starts becoming a bargain.

The prices for Gordon and Aybar are similar to what you can expect to pay in Yahoo!, and still represent better values than this price for Andrus, but its not nearly as cut-and-dry. There are worse things you can do in a draft than take Andrus in the sixth round, but if you can avoid pulling the trigger and he doesn't fall any lower than that, waiting on one of the other two is still perfectly acceptable.

CBS

In the CBS market, the scarcity at shortstop is unilateraly undervalued. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes can often be found on draft boards into the third round while Starlin Castro is frequently lasting into the sixth and Andrus as late as the ninth. The stability Andrus offers at a difficult position to fill is worth considerably more than a ninth round pick, and while Gordon and Aybar are almost equally undervalued, the relative similarity doesn't necessarily mean equal value. This is especially true in a snake draft, where the deeper you get strategy naturally degenerates and instead tactics are emphasized.

Knowing where you've already invested your cost forces you to be more particular in how you proceed, whereas in auction, you simply take good values where and when you can at various cost levels throughout. If you select Elvis Andrus in the eighth round of a snake draft, that means you turn your attention to other areas in subsequent rounds.

On the other hand, if you get to the 14th round and you haven't filled the shortstop position, any pick you make that isn't a shortstop carries added risk that the remaining positive values at the position will be gone by the time it's your turn to select again. You're forced to concede precision in lieu of security during the later rounds, where during the earlier rounds there are still lots of avenues to success and you can be more flexible in adapting to the nebulous market of your own particular draft.

You can't go wrong with any of these guys at these prices, but if you project to make a similar amount of profit by selecting Andrus in the 8th or 9th round as compared to Aybar or Gordon in the 14th or 15th, there's added value in locking down the scarcer position earlier on with a low-risk asset, so Andrus becomes the slightly wiser choice.

Posted by Mark Himmelstein at 12:20am

Monday, March 05, 2012

Dollar a day: John Mayberry Jr.

Ryan Howard? Injured.
Raul Ibanez? Run outta town.
Domonic Brown? Needs more polishing.

Enter John Mayberry Jr., this year’s Michael Morse, and the Phillies' de facto first baseman for the first two months, and presumed left fielder from there on out.

Don’t believe me about the Michael Morse comparison? Their half-season breakouts are strikingly similar. Behold:

The readily apparent difference is that Mayberry possesses much more speed. Both had concerns in development; Morse’s position, focus, cleanliness (I don’t mean hygienically, but in terms of HGH testing) and pedigree was all in question. For Mayberry, it was plate discipline, plate discipline, and more plate discipline.

He’s always been a gifted athlete but finally harnessed his speed in his third go-round at Triple-A (in and of itself a glaring question mark, I know), where he stole 20 bags. He’d hit for double digit power at five previous levels, including twice in Triple-A, but scared off scouts with his consistent 20 percent or higher strikeout rates.

In 2011, though, Mayberry swung less outside of the zone, and made contact more when he did; he swung and missed, additionally, on nearly 10 percent fewer pitches. As a result, his 267 at-bat cameo (similar, again, to Morse’s 266 at-bat foreshadowing in 2010) yielded a respectable 18.6 percent strikeout rate.

So: your last pick? Make it this year’s power breakout.

Posted by Nick Fleder at 6:29am

This week in (fantasy) baseball 2/27/12-3/4/12

Astros move Brett Myers to bullpen

In something of a shocking move, the Astros moved one of their most dependable starters in Brett Myers to the closer’s role, shifting a perennial 200-plus-inning pitcher to a role that likely won’t mean much for a team looking to rebound from a 106-loss season. Still, we fantasy owners need not complain, since the move will likely rejuvenate Myers’ value and open up a few spots for some intriguing young pitchers.

As far as Myers, 31, is concerned, he slides into the role of a solid No. 2 closer with a deep reservoir of job security. Not only is there no clear runner-up to the job—Juan Abreu and David Carpenter both have late-inning potential and a penchant for strikeouts, but neither have demonstrated an ability to tackle control problems—but Myers has, of course, demonstrated success with the role before.

In his career as a reliever—basically, the 2007 season—Myers is 5-6 with a 3.41 ERA, 1.247 WHIP and a quite-welcome 10.2 K/9 in 63.1 innings pitched. During that season of closing out Phillies games, Myers converted 88 percent of his opportunities for 21 saves, and it’s worth noting he never lost the job; he merely was shifted back to the rotation in 2008 when Brad Lidge was acquired.

Will Myers regain that strikeout ability? That remains to be seen, but the Astros offense is putrid enough to make sure he sees plenty of close games, and Myers could emerge as a 25-plus save candidate this season.

That’s the easy part. The better question is who will take over his spot in the rotation.

We know Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris have jobs locked down, and J.A. Happ, Livan Hernandez and Zach Duke will be front-runners for at least another starting role. Beyond them, much could depend on manager Brad Mills’ tolerance of untested rookies, since none of the team’s younger starters offers much in the way of proven major league value. The most obvious candidates are Jordan Lyles and Kyle Weiland, both of whom made their major-league debuts last season.

Lyles is probably the team’s best-known younger pitcher, though he was decimated last season to the tune of a 2-8 record, 5.36 ERA and 10.2 hits-per-nine. At 21, he still has a great deal to learn about pitching in The Show, but he was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher throughout his minor league career. Lyles will need to put together an impressive spring if he wants to convince Houston management he’s ready to anchor a rotation spot.

The same probably goes for Weiland, acquired in the Mark Melancon deal that also saw the Astros acquire shortstop Jed Lowrie. Weiland, 25, features a fastball that tops out in the mid 90s, and at 6-foot-4, has an ideal pitcher’s build. But he went 0-3 during his five starts down the stretch for the Red Sox last year, and even with the relaxed Astros’ environment, there’s no guarantee he’ll begin this season as a starter.

Rounding out the candidates are Aneury Rodriguez, Henry Sosa, Brett Oberholtzer and Lucas Harrell. Harrell, 26, was released by the White Sox last year and is entering a stage of his career where he’s quickly entering the vacuum of major league obscurity, while Sosa’s 10 starts last year resulted in a 5.23 ERA and 1.444 WHIP. Oberholtzer, a lefty, could sneak into the mix if Happ is pushed out of the rotation, though Rodriguez might be a sleeper if he can conquer his awful stats at Minute Maid Park last year (7.26 ERA, 1.513 WHIP in 39.2 innings pitched).

If I had to guess—and for a team with little prospect of meaningful September baseball, that’s all there probably is at the moment—I’d say Happ and Hernandez will have starting roles, with a fifth starter job going to either Lyles or Rodriguez. Much could change between now and Opening Day, of course, so this will be an interesting position battle throughout the rest of this month.

Carl Crawford suffers setback in recovery from wrist injury

For a guy entering spring training with perhaps the most to prove in his major league career thus far, the week did not bode well for Carl Crawford, who suffered inflammation in the same left wrist that bothered him throughout his dreadful 2011 season. Crawford and manager Bobby Valentine both downplayed the injury, which will be examined by the team’s medical staff today.

Pain-free or not, Crawford, a MVP candidate as recently as 2010, was already a risky early-round draft pick, so this news does little to elevate his value beyond that of a No. 2 outfielder in standard mixed leagues even if he might have the most upside of any player chosen outside the first three rounds of fantasy leagues this year.

Bunting practice injures A.J. Burnett

As much as Burnett’s name might be verboten around Yankee circles, a freak bunting accident last week left Burnett with a shattered right orbital bone, an injury that will vaporize at least the next three months of the right-hander’s season.

That’s a shame since Burnett, 35, was sure to fare better in more pitcher-friendly PNC Park, is still capable of striking out batters at a prodigious rate, and both his FIP and xFIP last season suggested his 5.15 ERA would calm down in 2012. Now we likely won’t see him for several months, and it’s difficult to predict the length of his recovery.

Assuming Jeff Karstens, James McDonald, Kevin Correia and Charlie Morton appear in Pittsburgh’s rotation this season, look for Erik Bedard and rookie Brad Lincoln to compete for the fifth spot.

Bedard, 34, whose 24 starts between the Mariners and Red Sox last year were his most since 2007, turned in a decent season, compiling a 5-9 record with a 3.62 ERA, 1.284 WHIP and 8.7 K/9 in 129.1 innings pitched last year. He’s obviously an injury risk, but Bedard could have some value in the National League if he’s able to hobble to the mound every fifth day.

Lincoln, 26, turned in a mediocre 47.2 innings last year, as he finished with a 4.72 ERA, 1.469 WHIP and 5.5 K/9. As usual, Pittsburgh will be joyous if they can even reach .500 this year, so perhaps there might be a spot in the rotation for a young buck like Lincoln.

Ike Davis comes down with a case of Valley Fever

What exactly is Valley Fever? Whatever it is, it doesn't sound good, especially for a guy coming off a season destroyed by an ankle injury. Blood work, apparently, doesn't prove Davis has the disease, which is a fungal infection common to the southwest region of the country. He'll undergo further tests, but in the meantime, chalk up one more reason to be a bit leery of drafting the Mets' slugging first baseman, even if he's a future star once he gets a full season under his belt.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:12am

Dual eligible pitchers in Yahoo!

Some pitchers qualify as both a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. Your league settings might make such players more valuable than they would be in a typical league. Their utility can also allow you to push for more stats in certain specific situations.

Generally speaking, there are two scenarios where dual eligibility is useful. There are certainly other scenarios besides these two, but these are the most common.

In a head-to-head and/or points league, a starting pitcher with relief eligibility can really help you bulk up on raw numbers. This assumes that your innings cap is either high or nonexistent.

In a more traditional roto league, an elite reliever with starter eligibility can help shave a couple points off your ratios over the course of the season. This can be especially useful with WHIP. It's not uncommon, for instance, for third and 10th place to be separated by only 0.04 WHIP. As a bit of a spoiler, only one name below fits this ratio-assisting description.

What follows is a guide to the pitchers currently marked as SP/RP in Yahoo! Most of the links are to Brooks Baseball player cards, which might be cooler than Mike Fast's new job. I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that THT staff helped put those monsters together.

No. 1 Matt Moore

He's currently only relief eligible, but that will change quickly.

Moore is a favorite of the prospect world. Some publications consider him the best prospect in baseball, which is quite the feat when your competition is Bryce Harper and Mike Trout. He's also getting some press as potentially the best starting pitcher in Tampa Bay despite the presence of David Price.

For those in the right format, Moore is the holy grail. He has the potential to provide top-20 starter value out of a reliever slot on your roster with upside for even more.

The best part is that he isn't expected to be on an innings limit. If you have a points format that counts strikeouts and innings, Moore easily could double the performance of an elite reliever. Adjust your draft board accordingly.

No. 2 Cory Luebke

I went into the offseason with personal misgivings about Luebke, but my colleagues here at THT have assuaged my doubts somewhat. The downside here is a low win total thanks to a crappy offense and some extra hits due to an outfield defense that might struggle to cover all that territory, especially if they try to squeeze Carlos Quentin and Jesus Guzman out there on the same day.

With that in mind, Luebke still should strike out a batter per inning, and if health cooperates, 200 frames isn't out of the question. In a points format, Luebke might only be half a step behind Moore in terms of value over replacement-level fantasy reliever. He'll probably be easier to draft, too, so you might want to target him rather than Moore.

No. 3 Chris Sale

Sale is the first of several relievers who will be transitioning to starting pitcher this season. His chances of sticking the landing are probably the best of the bunch since he already features an effective four-pitch mix.

Sale probably will lose a little velocity off his 96-mph heater. If you follow Tom Tango's Rule of 17—pitchers that transition to starter see a 17 percent increase in BABIP and HR/PA, a 17 percent decrease in K/PA, and a flat walk rate—then Sale appears to be destined for a very useful fantasy season. A strikeout per inning with a palatable ERA and WHIP is a reasonable expectation. He's riskier than Moore and Luebke, but he has significant upside.

An inning limit could come into play with Sale, but I suspect his performance will dictate where he gets cut off. H2H owners should keep this in mind, as there's a fair likelihood he won't be around for the playoff push.

No. 4 Hector Noesi

Noesi is so sleepy this year that I forgot about him. He has some competition in camp, which could push him into a swingman role. He essentially needs to beat out three of Blake Beavan, Charlie Furbush, Hisashi Iwakuma, Danny Hultzen, and James Paxton. Some combination of those names will fill the final three rotation spots behind Felix Hernandez and Jason Vargas. Noesi's skill set should be enough to earn him a look over the others.

The transition to Safeco should treat him very well. He relies on a mix of five solid pitches. None of them stands out as a plus offering, but they're all useful, and the variety might allow Noesi to find a few more strikeouts as he learns to sequence better.

A decent strikeout total along with a starter's share of innings and non-deadly ratios could be in store. He's kind of a high-floor, low-ceiling pick.

No. 5 Josh Collmenter

This pick varies by format. Since points leaguers benefit from high inning totals, Collmenter gets the nod. He's a bizarre pitcher, one of those guys who might legitimately baffle a fair number of major league hitters. He's essentially a fastball-changeup righty who relies on his weird approach to succeed with two pitches. We might see him mix in his show-me curveball more often this year, but it's not a good pitch, so that might be detrimental.

Collmenter's potential innings total and low walk rate are what make him attractive as a dual-eligible pitcher. His strikeout rate is fairly low and could come back to bite you in leagues with an attainable innings cap (whether that's weekly or for the season). His job security is iffy because the Diamondbacks have a plethora of hyped arms like Trevor Bauer and Tyler Skaggs waiting in the wings.

No. 6 Felipe Paulino

This pick probably depends on how you feel about Paulino's BABIP. He's posted three straight seasons of BABIPs above .330, so it's possible that he is simply "hittable." Perhaps he needs to learn when not to challenge hitters.

He has legit stuff, including a fastball-sinker combo that sit above 96 mph, a good slider and a changeup that generate plenty of swinging strikes, and a usable curveball. All of the tools are in place, including acceptable command and control; he just needs to figure out how to put everything together.

Kansas City is a friendly place to toil thanks to the home park and weak division. Paulino is risky as a fantasy pick, even if you're leaning on the dual eligibility. He's best in linear weights leagues where he's already a popular not-quite-sleeper.

In a points or H2H league with more traditional stats, you might actually be able to find him in the end game. He has 200-inning and 180-strikeout upside, but he might hurt you by allowing a few too many runs and hits.

No. 7 Albertin Aroldis Chapman

Did you know his first name is Albertin? I didn't.

It's difficult to gauge how Chapman will transition to starting duties. The Reds are paying him like a starter and really ought to have conducted this experiment sooner. The rotation is sort of full in the sense that Mike Leake and Bronson Arroyo are considered to be starting pitchers, although neither pitcher should be a hurdle if Chapman shows some affinity for starting.

The big question mark with Chapman is if he can get his walks under control. A lot of guys built like Chapman struggle mightily with control until they flame out, although a few like Randy Johnson learn to become masters. Even so, improvement will take time, and Chapman will probably issue way too many free passes. The result will be a low innings total and too many runs allowed. He's ranked seventh because he has enormous upside, but Chapman easliy could be unplayable in all formats as a starter.

Having signed Ryan Madson and Sean Marshall, the Reds shouldn't send Chapman back to the bullpen until they fully conduct this experiment. That means he could begin the season in Triple-A. An innings cap is a guarantee even if he somehow manages to pitch efficiently.

Unlike the next two guys, Chapman might be able to survive using only two pitches because they're so effective.

No. 8 Daniel Bard

Bard is the third reliever-to-starter project on this list. Unlike with Sale, Bard has leaned heavily on his fastball and slider out of the pen, mixing in the very occasional changeup. As such, things could get bumpy for Bard, especially because the AL East and Fenway leave little margin for error.

He's not guaranteed to break camp as a starter, but there's a fair chance Bard could wind up with 10 or more saves out of the pen along with his usual elite ratios. He won't be a total loss if you take a flier on him and it doesn't work out.

It's unclear if he would operate under an inning limit. Like with Sale, his performance will likely dictate the Red Sox decisions.

No. 9 Neftali Feliz

Like Bard, Feliz will jump to the rotation without a starter's repertoire. Where Bard has shown a changeup with some promise, Feliz relies on the ol' heater nearly 80 percent of the time. His slider is essentially a show-me pitch because he struggles to control it, and his sinker and cutter have gone all but unused.

Feliz will have to develop those pitches to succeed as a starter, which means 2012 could get ugly at times. He's expected to throw 140-160 innings this season, and the Rangers have the bullpen pieces in place to commit to the plan.

If the plan bombs completely, Feliz could supplant Nathan as the club's closer. However, the Rangers will probably option Feliz to Triple-A before completely giving up on the project.

No. 10 Brett Myers

The one and only reliever with starter eligibility on this list, Myers will close for the lowly Astros this season. The team could struggle to win 60 games, but how many of those wins do you think will be by more than three runs? In other words, don't worry too much about opportunities.

Myers will be most useful in bizarre, small leagues where several teams have a full docket of legitimate closers. His presence could help win the category.

From his time in Philadelphia, we know Myers' stuff plays up out of the bullpen. He can sit back and rely on his fastball and devastating curveball to get the job done. He's always had a bulldog mentality on the mound, so the role is well suited to him. His numbers are likely to be the kind you get from a solid fantasy starter rather than an elite reliever, so he doesn't fit as a guy who can help with your ratios.

The rest of the notables

Alfredo Aceves seems like he could be a reliable back-of-the-rotation starter, which means you probably need to be in a deep league to consider him.

Jason Hammel has succeeded in the AL East before, but it's still a tough assignment for a merely adequate pitcher. He should get a good chunk of innings, though, which will help his cause in points leagues.

Jordan Lyles has the upside of a No. 3 starter, but he probably needs a couple of years to get there. Maybe look at him for spot starts against bad teams.

Tom Gorzelanny is a solid starter and could fill in if the Nationals have to deal with injuries. He might get used down the stretch once Stephen Strasburg hits his innings limit. Keep in mind, John Lannan is ahead of him on the depth chart. Speaking of which...

...John Lannan. See above. He could get shipped elsewhere. Depending on when that happens, he might not gain relief eligibility or he might be worth a bit more than an end-of-the-article mention.

Alexi Ogando is expected to return to the bullpen this season. Despite last season's successful experiment, the club believes they can get more value out of Ogando in the bullpen. He could be the one guy who puts up elite ratios as a starter-eligible reliever.

Martin Perez could see some time out of the bullpen this season. It will likely depend on club need since the Texas bullpen appears secure right now.

Tommy Hunter seems like a scary choice, but if you have balls or a deep league, he'll probably throw 140 innings or more. They won't be good innings, though.

Shelby Miller could see time late this season, and he's marked as a reliever.

Ditto for Dellin Betances.

Ditto for Manny Banuelos.

Ditto for Alex Torres. Injuries would help his cause the most as he already appears MLB ready.

Arodys Vizcaino will need a LOT of Braves injuries to see enough starts to gain eligibility.

Kris Medlen is being stretched out to potentially fill in for Tim Hudson, so he could be useful early on. If he succeeds and others hit the disabled list, he could cling to a starting job.

Randall Delgado could bounce between the pen and rotation, but he'll probably just start in Triple-A until needed.

Andrew Miller could magically discover his potential. The Red Sox are giving him chances, but consider me a skeptic.

Concluding Thoughts

It's quite possible I missed a name or three. If you think somebody should have been mentioned, leave a comment and I'll address it.

In case you're wondering, guys like Kyle Kendrick, Kyle McClellan and Manny Parra did not make the list because they are guys like Kyle Kendrick, Kyle McClellan, and Manny Parra.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:10am

Friday, March 02, 2012

Roto Chat this Sunday, March 4

Posted by Nick Fleder at 10:37pm

Top 100 fantasy baseball prospects

Last year, I took my first crack at compiling a top 100 fantasy prospect list. While I was happy with the results, it was far from perfect. This list isn't perfect either, but I'd like to think it is a massive step-up from my rookie effort.

To qualify as a prospect for this list, a position player must not have exceeded 130 at-bats in the majors, and a pitcher must not have thrown more than 50 innings, or made more than 30 relief appearances. In addition, I've adhered to Major League Baseball's new Collective Bargaining Agreement rookie rules, meaning Yu Darvish and Yoenis Cespedes do not qualify (though Jorge Soler does). Soler is an omission because I am refraining from ranking until he signs with a club, not because he is lacking the talent or projection to land in the top 100.

When putting together this list I weighed ceiling, floor, minor league level, statistical performance, and scouting reports in varying degrees. I read through hundreds of scouting reports, and for most players, multiple scouting reports from different sources.

My primary scouting sources for information were Kevin Goldstein and Jason Parks of Baseball Prospectus, John Sickels of Minor League Ball, Keith Law of ESPN, and the outstanding stable of writers/scouts from Baseball America. With scouting being such an inexact science, the reports sometimes varied wildly from source to source. Ultimately, I found myself needing to rely on my gut in some cases.

When using this as a cheat sheet, be sure to keep your league settings in mind. There is simply no way to cater to all possible league structures, and I didn't have any specific league size or roster structure in mind when preparing it.

This article is only the first of many to look at the top 100 fantasy prospects. In the coming weeks, I will be following up with four separate posts of 25 prospects each which include write-ups. As such, I ask for you patience in asking detailed questions in the commentary section below about the individual featured prospects. Feel free to debate the merits of your favorite snubs, and lobby for players moving up and down the list. I also encourage readers to e-mail me with questions; I'm always happy to discuss baseball and answer questions.

Top 100 prospects:

Rank	Organization	Position	First name	Last name
1	Nationals	OF	Bryce	Harper
2	Angels	OF	Mike	Trout
3	Rays	SP	Matt	Moore
4	Rangers	SS	Jurickson	Profar
5	Mariners	C	Jesus	Montero
6	Rockies	3B	Nolan	Arenado
7	Orioles	SS	Manny	Machado
8	Reds	C	Devin	Mesoraco
9	Blue Jays	C	Travis	d'Arnaud
10	Royals	OF	Wil	Myers
11	Yankees	C	Gary	Sanchez
12	Twins	3B	Miguel	Sano
13	Diamondbacks	SP	Trevor	Bauer
14	Braves	SP	Julio	Teheran
15	Diamondbacks	SP	Tyler	Skaggs
16	Cardinals	SP	Shelby	Miller
17	Nationals	3B	Anthony	Rendon
18	Orioles	SP	Dylan	Bundy
19	Red Sox	C	Ryan	Lavarnway
20	Red Sox	SS	Xander	Bogaerts
21	Angels	SS	Jean	Segura
22	Pirates	SP	Jameson	Taillon
23	Pirates	SP	Gerrit	Cole
24	Athletics	OF	Michael	Choice
25	Padres	OF	Rymer	Liriano
26	Rays	SS	Hak-Ju	Lee
27	Cardinals	2B	Kolten	Wong
28	Royals	3B	Cheslor	Cuthbert
29	Tigers	SP	Jacob	Turner
30	Mariners	SP	Taijuan	Walker
31	Royals	OF	Bubba	Starling
32	Padres	3B	Jedd	Gyorko
33	Rangers	SP	Martin	Perez
34	Yankees	SP	Manny	Banuelos
35	Mariners	SP	Danny	Hultzen
36	Rockies	SP	Drew	Pomeranz
37	Cardinals	SP	Carlos	Martinez
38	Cubs	1B	Anthony	Rizzo
39	Blue Jays	OF	Jacob	Marisnick
40	Pirates	OF	Josh	Bell
41	Twins	2B/OF	Eddie	Rosario
42	Mets	SP	Zack	Wheeler
43	Mariners	SP	James	Paxton
44	Giants	OF	Gary	Brown
45	Marlins	OF	Christian	Yelich
46	Cubs	OF	Brett	Jackson
47	Astros	1B	Jonathan	Singleton
48	Cardinals	OF	Oscar	Taveras
49	Padres	C	Yasmani	Grandal
50	Blue Jays	OF	Anthony	Gose
51	Rangers	3B	Mike	Olt
52	Mets	SP	Matt	Harvey
53	Athletics	SP	Jarrod	Parker
54	Braves	SP	Randall	Delgado
55	Athletics	SP	Brad	Peacock
56	Phillies	SP	Trevor	May
57	Braves	SP/RP	Arodys	Vizcaino
58	Diamondbacks	SP	Archie	Bradley
59	Royals	SP	Mike	Montgomery
60	Padres	2B	Cory	Spangenberg
61	Reds	SS	Billy	Hamilton
62	Astros	OF	George	Springer
63	Cubs	SS	Javier	Baez
64	Yankees	3B	Dante	Bichette Jr
65	Pirates	OF	Starling	Marte
66	Mariners	SS	Nick	Franklin
67	Twins	OF	Oswaldo	Arcia
68	Tigers	3B	Nick	Castellanos
69	Padres	SP	Robbie	Erlin
70	Athletics	C	Derek	Norris
71	Athletics	SP	Sonny	Gray
72	Padres	1B	Yonder	Alonso
73	Diamondbacks	3B	Matt	Davidson
74	White Sox	RP	Addison	Reed
75	Pirates	SP	Luis	Heredia
76	Red Sox	3B	Will	Middlebrooks
77	Athletics	SP	A.J.	Cole
78	Orioles	2B/SS/3B	Jonathan	Schoop
79	Indians	SS	Francisco	Lindor
80	Royals	SP	Jake	Odorizzi
81	Dodgers	SP	Zach	Lee
82	Rockies	SP	Chad	Bettis
83	Blue Jays	SP	Daniel	Norris
84	Red Sox	OF	Brandon	Jacobs
85	Yankees	OF	Mason	Williams
86	Red Sox	OF	Bryce	Brentz
87	Rays	OF	Mikie	Mahtook
88	Cardinals	SP	Tyrell	Jenkins
89	Yankees	SP	Dellin	Betances
90	Astros	SP	Jarred	Cosart
91	Brewers	SP	Wily	Peralta
92	Rays	SP	Enny	Romero
93	Phillies	SP	Jesse	Biddle
94	Blue Jays	SP	Justin	Nicolino
95	Reds	2B/3B	Henry	Rodriguez
96	Rays	SP	Taylor	Guerrieri
97	Giants	C	Tommy	Joseph
98	Blue Jays	SP	Noah	Syndergaard
99	Brewers	SP	Jed	Bradley
100	Mets	SP	Jeurys	Familia

Posted by Josh Shepardson at 1:32am

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Friday, March 30, 2012

Thursday, March 29, 2012

What’s the difference?

Don’t price enforce

That said, deplete the market and pounce

Wednesday, March 28, 2012

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Buy High

Buy Low

Sell High

Sell Low

THT Forecasts

Monday, March 26, 2012

Sean Marshall likely to assume closer role in Cincinnati

Tommy John surgery ruins Joakim Soria's season

Drew Storen at risk to miss Opening Day

More injury news for Chris Carpenter

No timetable for Chase Utley's return

Skip Schumaker injures right oblique

Other news and notes from around the majors

Friday, March 23, 2012

Thursday, March 22, 2012

Kenley Jansen or Javy Guerra the top dog in LA?

What batting in a Boston (not San Diego) uniform does for your value

Bad, yet meaningful, springs

Good springs that mean a lick

Wednesday, March 21, 2012

Jeffrey's analysis

Jonathan's analysis

Monday, March 19, 2012

All in on de Aza

Three-hole huge for Starlin Castro

Beachy could walk among league elite this year

Andy Pettitte returns to Yankees

Carlos Quentin to undergo knee surgery

Royals lose Salvador Perez for at least three months

Mets' injury woes continue as David Wright strains rib cage muscle

Other news and notes from around MLB

Tier 1

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Tier 4

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Tier 6

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Sunday, March 18, 2012

Friday, March 16, 2012

Tier 1

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Thursday, March 15, 2012

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Tier 1

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Tier 5

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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Tier 1

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Monday, March 12, 2012

Yanks' Robertson hurt while taking out recyclables

Hart recovering well from knee surgery

Sore shoulder shuts down Marcum