THT Essentials:
Now available
You can now purchase the Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2013, with 300 pages of great content. It's also available on Amazon and Kindle. Read more about it here.
Follow our quick-hitting updates each day on Twitter.
And here's the full roster.
Most Recent Comments
Monthly Archives
May, 2013
April, 2013
March, 2013
February, 2013
January, 2013
December, 2012
November, 2012
October, 2012
September, 2012
August, 2012
July, 2012
June, 2012
May, 2012
April, 2012
March, 2012
February, 2012
January, 2012
December, 2011
November, 2011
October, 2011
September, 2011
August, 2011
July, 2011
June, 2011
May, 2011
April, 2011
March, 2011
February, 2011
January, 2011
December, 2010
November, 2010
October, 2010
September, 2010
August, 2010
July, 2010
June, 2010
May, 2010
April, 2010
March, 2010
February, 2010
January, 2010
December, 2009
November, 2009
October, 2009
September, 2009
August, 2009
July, 2009
June, 2009
May, 2009
April, 2009
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
THT's Fantasy Archives
Tuesday, July 31, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table. Some of those entries are already obsolete.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Neither pitcher is a must-start option, but Kris Medlen against the Marlins and Aaron Laffey against the Mariners strike me as playable.
Pitcher (bum): Keep a close eye out today as any probable pitcher who is dealt will result in an exploitable situation. Ryan Dempster is scheduled today, but if he's traded it will be a bullpen day.
For more fixed starts, the potent Tigers lineup can probably get to Josh Beckett. And the White Sox face the ultimate bum - at least this season - Nick Blackburn.
Hitter (power): Tyler Moore against Cliff Lee has a chance to show some power. Not a recommendation I ever expected to make. Travis Snider has Dempster at the moment, but that could change suddenly.
Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage, plenty of speed, and a surprising recent burst of power. His ownership is still only at 23 percent. Rajai Davis also has the platoon advantage and should be back to starting more frequently now that Snider and Eric Thames have been dealt.
Tomorrow's grind
There are a ton of pitching options tomorrow, most of them guys I would have recommended weeks or months ago but not now.
That said, Carlos Villanueva against the Mariners at Safeco looks quite useful. Jake Westbrook is set to face the Rockies which is a survivable match-up and Zach McAllister has the Royals.
If you want something with a little more ceiling and uncertainty, Wade LeBlanc is paired off against the Braves and Ben Sheets.
Few match-ups for the gambling man tomorrow. Our old pal Andruw Jones is back again. And the duo of Seth Smith and Brandon Moss should be back in action.
Carlos Gomez and the Brewers face Jordan Lyles, but without the platoon advantage, it might be one of those games where Nyjer Morgan gets a tune up.
Reliever watch
The Dodgers acquired Brandon League from the Mariners, which really doesn't mean a whole lot as far as we are concerned.
Francisco Cordero blew up in the seventh yesterday and really shouldn't be pitching anywhere near a leveraged situation.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:53am
Most fantasy rankings are forged on ‘gut calls’ and the whimsical notions of whoever is compiling the list. Some experts don’t pay for saves, some don’t pay for steals, some wait on pitching, some value upside, some value reliability, and so on. While it might be nice to see plenty of different opinions, it probably doesn’t truly help unless you understand the biases of each individual ranker. This is why some of the writers here at The Hardball Times have created their own, objective valuation methods, outlined here and here (reading, or at least skimming, these introductory articles will give you a much better understanding of the rankings that follow and should help to answer most potential questions).
In accompaniment with Oliver’s rest of season forecasts, we will use these objective formulas to create objective rankings. You may not agree with a particular rank, but you will know how the ranking was calculated and you wont have to guess what the ranker was thinking. This should make adding your own personal adjustments and biases much easier. And perhaps this type of ranking will introduce some potential buys and sells that you may have otherwise overlooked.
These rankings will assume a 12-team league in adjusting for league average. The ordering of players, however, is unaffected; players will rank in identical order for leagues of all sizes.
So, lets get to it. First up are catchers.
*Full season = the raw (non-adjusted) full season pace roto score using the roto points above replacement method. This is, essentially, the amount of expected roto points each catcher would score above an empty spot in a lineup over a full season.
Using the roto points above average (rPAA) formula, the average catcher is projected to score 2.82 raw roto points prior to adjusting for league average, with Mike Napoli projected at 3.46. After adjustments, though, you can see there is little difference between any of the players. Napoli and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the 12th ranked catcher, are separated by just 1.22 expected rest of season roto points. The E.Y.E.S. method sees a bit more of a difference between first and 12th, but at a gap of just 1.73 roto points, the difference isn’t substantially greater.
The main take-away – at least what the numbers are saying anyways—is that there isn’t much to be gained or lost at catcher from this point forward. There will probably be a catcher or two who far outperforms the rest for the remainder of the season, but none have been outstanding to the point where Oliver believes in them enough to rank them as such.
Analysis
Mike Napoli – Oliver has Mike Napoli as the top ranked catcher going forward, but much of that expected value is tied to a .271 projected batting average. While Napoli is certainly capable of hitting for an average that high for the remainder of the year, he is currently hitting just .227 and is striking out in 30.0 percent of his plate appearances (career 25.2 percent). His plate discipline looks fine, but both his contact percentage and swinging strike rate are higher than his career averages, although not quite enough to justify a 30.0 percent strikeout rate.
I would guess Napoli cuts his strikeouts down to around 27 percent and raises his slightly low .285 BABIP to around .295 the rest of the way. These slight improvements would vastly improve Napoli’s batting average, but only to around .260, which happens to be his career average.
Another objection I have with Napoli’s projection is his RBI rate. Oliver thinks he will drive in about 0.19 runs per at bat. Over the course of his first two seasons in Texas he has averaged just 0.17 RBI per at bat and he has played much worse this season (0.13 RBI/AB). Given his struggles, and the fact that he is hitting eighth in the Rangers lineup, I wouldn’t pay for much more than 0.15 RBI per at bat, which would equal about 26 RBI from this point forward.
These may seem like minor or futile adjustments, but they move Napoli's down to a score of 0.26 roto points above replacement (0.23 EYES), which, over a full season, would translate to a difference of about 1.07 roto points. This also moves Napoli down to catcher number three according to the rPAA formula and fifth according to EYES.
Miguel Montero – Currently hitting .282, Oliver believes that Montero can maintain that same average for the remainder of the season. But, Montero is striking out at a rate that would tie his career high (23.7 percent) and is benefiting from a .356 BABIP, 43 points higher than his career average. He is a career .273 hitter, and with an inflated strikeout rate, BABIP regression should probably send his average into the .260s.
This adjustment doesn’t change Montero’s ranking, but it does move his roto scores below league average (-0.02 and -0.03).
Ramon Hernandez and Wilin Rosario – Oliver seems to think that Hernandez is going to get 145 at bats from this point forward. Hernandez, however, has only played in seven games since July 13 when he came off the disabled list. During that time Rosario has only played in eight games, so it isn't like there is a clear starter among the two. Given that Hernandez is 36 years old, and that Rosario is the Rockies future at the position, and that the Rockies are nowhere near competitive this season, it would seem like Rosario would get at least a slight majority of the playing time behind the plate going forward. And at the very least, it would be hard to project much more than a 50/50 split between the two for the remainder of the year.
Adjustments: Hernandez to 100 at bats (moves down to 28th and 29th among catchers). Rosario to 125 at bats (moves up to 26th and 26th among catchers).
Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 5:46am
You are reading this on the date of the 2012 Major League Baseball trading deadline. In most fantasy leagues, however, you still have a few weeks remaining before your league’s trade deadline. Pushing your league’s trading deadline beyond the actual MLB is good policy, as it enables teams to make decisions with full information about a player’s situation. While it can be prudent in the case of certain players to wait until his role and team are known, it is usually in your best interest not too wait any longer than the MLB deadline to address your needs.
A mid-to-late-August fantasy trade deadline leaves very little time for players acquired at that point to produce for their new teams and give them the categorical surges for which they are needed and acquired. Therefore, if you are in need of help in a specific category, there aren’t many compelling reasons to wait longer, despite the time cushion available. One effect of the late trade deadline is that it acts as a peg that influences the timeline on which owners begin to consider trading, compelling many owners to procrastinate and often ultimately wait too long to make their moves.
With the logic of acting sooner than later fairly self-evident, I’d like to discuss the exceptional cases in which waiting a few extra weeks is wise.
Trading low-volume stats from surplus without major categorical need
You are at or toward the top of the standings. You’ve already secured some distance and security in saves, steals, or maybe homers – you can trade a one-category producer away and still expect a top 3 finish in the category. You have no glaring needs, are generally competitive across the board and are basically looking to upgrade one of your weaker starting position players or for an extra arm to provide some push down the stretch.
In these scenarios, the player you are trading doesn’t hold much value to your team, roto-points-wise, so it is in your team’s interest, in a vacuum, to trade this player even for a modest upgrade at another position. However, the player you are giving up could be very valuable to the team acquiring him. You may be giving up more points to the receiver than you will gain from the player you will get.
In this scenario, you shouldn’t be in a major rush and completing a deal shouldn’t be too difficult, as there are likely many potential suitors (these categories tend to cluster in the middle) and you likely have a fair amount of flexibility regarding the position of the player you take back. In this situation, you also must consider the teams with which you are willing to be a trading partner. You don’t want to trade with a close rival, since you are likely to lose out in raw points in the deal. So, trading with a team at the middle or bottom of the standings is preferable. You may also want to consider trying to ship the player to a team that could then pass your rival in the category, stealing yourself an extra point that way as well.
You don’t have to wait in this scenario, per se, rather the proper course is dependent upon how close certain categories are and the relative position of the team with which you are planning to trade.
Creating time pressure when acquiring somebody else’s surplus value
Look at the above situation from the eyes of the rest of the league. Sometimes you can tell from a team’s roster construction and categorical strengths that they will be looking to unload a categorical surplus at the deadline. If a team is leading comfortably in saves, a closer with non-elite ratio stats is useless to that team, but can be useful to you. As the deadline approaches, the other owner is going to have increased pressure to deal that surplus and therefore may be willing to accept less in return just to get something back that they can use.
One other point to note here is that it is usually not worth trying to wait to extract the best possible deal if your need is glaring. Getting a player who will help you in a category in which you need to make up considerable ground onto your roster immediately will have more impact than waiting two weeks and getting either a slightly better player or giving up a bit less to get that player. You have to win the league, not the trade.
Making sneaky plays for next year when you aren’t out of this year’s race
Over the years, Derek Carty emerged as one of the masters of free to cheap closer keeper strategy and each year he would publish candidates to emerge as closers the following season. Suppose Rafael Betancourt is not dealt before this article publishes. Don’t think the Rockies have any use for him going forward and that they feel they’d be better off trading the established veteran with a friendly contract and handing the job to Rex Brothers in 2013? Well, wouldn’t it be smart to trade for Brothers now and keep him at his pre-closer price?
If you are in the race now, these are luxury moves. You don’t want to give up anything you need to win this year, and the player you are targeting will likely make a bigger impact as an under-the-radar keeper next year due to potential offseason moves. In this case it is sensible to wait as long as you can before acting so your sacrifice is minimal. In these cases, you are expecting the change of status to occur in the offseason, so waiting an extra few weeks shouldn’t change much about the player’s price.
If you have a nice lead in your league, this could be another way to spend your surplus value—trying to acquire cheap players with the best chances of becoming more valuable in the offseason via a change of team or role. Who these players might be usually becomes clearer once the MLB trade deadline passes.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:34am
SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT
Pinetar Ponies vs. Wookie Invasion
ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM AN ANONYMOUS FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE
Decided July 25, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 150 (July 2012)
Factual Background
An anonymous fantasy baseball league (hereinafter referred to as “the league” is a 14-team mixed AL/NL keeper league comprised of two divisions of seven (7) teams each where the top three (3) teams in each division earn a playoff berth. Teams are permitted to maintain up to fourteen (14) players during each off-season. It is unknown whether players are signed to contracts or if there are any restrictions on how long a player may be retained.
It is unknown whether the league is rotisserie or points based. The Court presumes it is a head-to-head league given the commissioner’s filed with the Court references one team being “five games out of the last playoff spot.”
The Court’s forthcoming decision is based on the information provided in the case submission by the league commissioner.
Procedural History
A controversial trade was made between two teams in the league. Wookie Invasion traded Andre Ethier (OF-LAD) and Lance Berkman (1B/OF-STL) to the Pumas in exchange for Sergio Santos (RP-TOR) and Trevor Bauer (SP-ARZ). Wookie Invasion is currently in last place in its division. The Pumas are currently in 5th place in their division and five games out of the final playoff spot.
It is alleged that Wookie Invasion has a personal issue with Pinetar Ponies, the 3rd place team. After some league members questioned the validity and rationale behind the trade, Wookie Invasion responded via email to the entire league that he “100% traded in order to help the Pumas catch the Pinetar Ponies.”
The league commissioner seeks an opinion from the Court whether this trade should be approved or rejected.
Issues Presented
(1) Was this trade executed as a result of collusive conduct between Wookie Invasion and the Pumas?
(2) If there is no collusive conduct present, should the trade made between Wookie Invasion and the Pumas be approved?
Decision
The analysis of this case involves two elements. First, we must determine if there is any collusion involved between the teams making the underlying trade. Once that has been determined, we can enter into a discussion about the actual merits of the trade and the players involved.
I. WAS THIS TRADE EXECUTED AS A RESULT OF COLLUSIVE CONDUCT BETWEEN WOOKIE INVASION AND THE PUMAS?
The statement made by Wookie Invasion regarding his motivation for making this trade is worrisome. It is not uncommon for people to have personal issues or conflicts within the confines of a fantasy league. The very nature of competition can foster animosity, or a personal issue can manifest itself into the social atmosphere of a fantasy league. What the Court seeks to avoid is allowing these issues to undermine the integrity of the entire league.
On its face, there is an appearance of impropriety because Wookie Invasion has openly admitted that he is motivated to make this trade for the sole purpose of improving the Pumas’ chances of catching the Pinetar Ponies in the standings. What we must look at closely is whether the Pumas have conspired with Wookie Invasion to facilitate this deal and, in exchange, offered a tangible benefit to Wookie Invasion.
Collusion is defined as a secret agreement or conspiracy especially for fraudulent or treacherous purposes. See Steel Curtain v. Rusty Trombones, 3 F.J. 201, 203 (November 2011). When presented with allegations or suspicions of collusion, the Court will look at the evidence in the light most favorable to the accused. This is because acts of collusion within a fantasy league are one of the most serious fantasy sports crimes that can be committed and can undermine the integrity of a league more so than almost anything else. Team Zero v. Samcro Reaper Crew, 3 F.J. 177, 179 (October 2011).
From the Pumas perspective, they are clearly receiving a windfall in this trade based on present-day value. The additions of Ethier, one of the top outfielders in the league, and Berkman are indisputably huge improvements over Santos and Bauer for the 2012 season. Santos has been out since April and recently underwent season-ending shoulder surgery. Any value he has is purely based on projections and long-term planning for when he returns. Bauer, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, did not have a successful stint at the major league level earlier this year. He is currently in the minors and likely won’t have much fantasy impact for the remainder of the 2012 season.
The record is devoid of any indication that the Pumas sought to take advantage of Wookie Invasion’s personal vendetta against the Pinetar Ponies. All indications are that Wookie Invasion looked to make a deal with a team in a position to knock the Pinetar Ponies out of a playoff berth. The Court will refrain from making a judgment on the maturity or sensibility of such a desire. However, it seems apparent that the Pumas merely were the innocent beneficiary Wookie Invasion’s intentions.
Without a confession or some form of written proof, the Court will rely on circumstantial evidence and weigh the totality of the circumstances to determine if collusive conduct is present. John Doe v. Richard Roe, 3. F.J. 197, 200 (October 2011). Here, there is no confession from the Pumas. There is no indication that the Pumas consented to any sort of plan to purposefully undermine the integrity of the league. They simply accepted a trade that was proposed to them and that improved their team for the current season. See Road Runners v. Urban Achievers, 3 F.J. 47, 50 (June 2011) (holding that fantasy baseball teams are not obligated to shop players around for a more advantageous deal solely to appease skeptical league members).
There is no indication whatsoever that the Pumas and Wookie Invasion agreed to a monetary share of any prize money that is potentially won. There is also no indication that an agreement was reached for future trades to be made as compensation. Despite it being overtly obvious what Wookie Invasion’s motive was, there is no evidence to support the contention that the Pumas shared such Machiavellian intent. Rather, they agreed to a trade that benefited their team. Based on the foregoing, the Court concludes that the Pumas did not conspire with Wookie Invasion in an act of collusion.
II. IF THERE IS NO COLLUSIVE CONDUCT PRESENT, SHOULD THE TRADE MADE BETWEEN WOOKIE INVASION AND THE PUMAS BE APPROVED?
The Court typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money to participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).
It is well documented that there is a different analysis of trades in a keeper league as opposed to a non-keeper league. A trade that may look facially uneven or lopsided could easily pass muster in a keeper league. Trades made between teams in a keeper league need to be analyzed by other factors besides merely comparing statistics. Grave Diggers vs. Chilidogs, 4 F.J. 5, 8 (January 2012). These other factors include salary cap flexibility, contractual status of players, and long-term planning at the expense of the current season. Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010); Winners vs. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011) (holding that team owners in keeper leagues with no hope of contending in the current season must make critical roster management decisions of whether to trade established players to help build for the future).
The Court will evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret vs. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010). The Court will not undermine a fantasy owner’s ability to manage his/her team unless a deal is unfair or inequitable, ripe with collusion, or not in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is objectively intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. 4 Ponies vs. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. Carson City Cocks vs. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).
At first glance, the trade of Andre Ethier and Lance Berkman in exchange for Sergio Santos and Trevor Bauer looks inequitable based on present-day value. None of the players involved in this trade are considered elite for purposes of requiring additional scrutiny merely because of how valuable they are based on their statistics and name recognition. See Steelers vs. Patriots, 3 F.J. 216, 220 (November 2011).
Ethier is the best player in this trade. Through July 24, 2012, he is batting .294 with 11 homeruns, 61 RBI and an OPS of .853. While it is unlikely he will reach 30 homeruns, his run production and batting average should improve with the Dodgers’ recent acquisition of Hanley Ramirez who will likely bat ahead of Ethier in the lineup.
Berkman had a renaissance season in 2011. While it was doubtful he would replicate that this year, he hasn’t been on the field much to try. Berkman has been hobbled by injuries all season which has limited him to only 21 games. He recently was hit by a pitch on the same knee that was operated on earlier in the year. While he is not expected to miss much time as a result, he is clearly not the same player he was last year as his bat speed has decreased and he cannot generate the same power out of his legs.
Bauer, one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, had a disappointing stint with the Diamondbacks. He only pitched four games, winning just one while accumulating a disastrous 6.06 ERA and 1.65 WHIP. However, this was a small sample after Bauer only had a handful of starts at Triple-A. With more seasoning, he will be a fixture in Arizona’s starting rotation in 2013.
Santos was acquired by the Blue Jays this past offseason to be their new closer. However, he sustained a shoulder injury in April and had to undergo season-ending surgery. All indications thus far are that he will be ready for the 2013 season and should assume Toronto’s closer role once again. When healthy, he could be in line for 30 saves next year with an improving Toronto team that will get half of its starting rotation back by then.
When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). The Court is unaware of each team’s respective rosters. Therefore, we cannot draw any conclusions or make any comparisons to the roster needs of either team. However, the Pumas, only five games out of the final playoff berth, are clearly looking to make a run for this season. The acquisitions of Ethier and Berkman are indicative of improving his team with a “win now” mentality.
Conversely, Wookie Invasion is in last place with no hopes of competing this year. When a team owner in a keeper league no longer has any hope for contending in the current season, he must make a critical roster management decision of whether to trade off established players. See Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). Granted his underlying motivation for helping the Pumas overtake the Pinetar Ponies has to be taken into account. But the fact remains that Santos and Bauer do have long-term value despite offering nothing in compensation for the current season.
A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011). While this trade is completely one-sided for the 2012 season, it does have projected value for next season and beyond. Because of the projected value Bauer and Santos have, this deal cannot be considered a “dump.” Additionally, while Ethier is a very good player, he is not at the same level as someone like Miguel Cabrera or Ryan Braun.
Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade should be approved. However, the personal vendetta between Wookie Invasion and Pinetar Ponies needs to be addressed by the commissioner. While this controversial trade should be approved, it could potentially lead to a slippery slope that could undermine the integrity of the league.
IT IS SO ORDERED.
Posted by Michael Stein at 5:30am
Monday, July 30, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start) There are quite a few games for a Monday and even some nice options. Mike Leake couldn't ask for a much better match-up than the Padres. Aside from a recent blow up against Arizona, he's been very solid.
I'll be leaning most heavily on Marco Estrada. He has been homer prone, but his ratios are elite and he's set to spin his trade against the Astros.
Pitcher (bum): I expect Hisashi Iwakuma, Jeremy Hefner, and Ervin Santana to take a pretty thorough thumping today. They face the Blue Jays, Giants, and Rangers respectively.
Hitter (power): Keeping with the theme above, I'd lean on Travis Snider and Adam Lind to do some of that thumping.
Hitter (speed): David Murphy's been a touch cool lately, but he's still a five category contributor. Quintin Berry has a usable match-up against Clay Buchholz. Most of the usual suspects are "sits" today.
Tomorrow's grind
I'm not a big Aaron Laffey fan, but he should be able to handle the Mariners offense at Safeco.
Kris Medlen has the Marlins and he's one of the most criminally misused pitchers in baseball in my opinion. Which is not to say he's amazing or anything, but he's certainly a mid-rotation quality arm.
I'm tempted to put Carlos Gomez in the power category with all the long balls he's hit recently. He's got the platoon advantage tomorrow.
His peer, Rajai Davis, also have the platoon advantage.
Cliff Lee hasn't been nearly as bad as his 1-6 record, but the 3.95 ERA doesn't appear too off base. He lacks a put away pitch at the moment and his often pinpoint control has been off for most of the season. That said, I like Tyler Moore against him tomorrow.
Reliever watch
Alfredo Aceves blew the save yesterday but held on for a much deserved win. He pitched 2.1 innings.
Francisco Rodriguez and John Axford teamed up for an epic blown save. Axford really blew the save twice. With a four run lead in the eighth, K-Rod and Axford allowed the Nationals to tie the game. The Brewers then scored two more runs on the home half which Axford promptly surrendered in the ninth.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am
On Friday, we discussed three different fantasy baseball valuation systems. I promised positional rankings for the rest of the season, but today we're going to get a little more familiar with the numbers before delving into those rankings tomorrow.
When playing in a rotisserie fantasy baseball league, you want to accumulate the most roto points. Simple concept, right? Well, now we have a couple of systems that try to quantify each player’s roto point values. This should be helpful in valuing players, especially when preparing for a draft or when making a trade.
But, even as straightforward of a concept roto point values is, it can still seem a little abstract before we familiarize ourselves with some of the nuances, like what is league average for leagues of various sizes? What does the positional scarcity spectrum look like? Are two top-40 players really worth a top-5 player? If not, what is? And so on. So, without any more foreshadowing, let's build a little framework for reference.
(For the sake of simplicity, I am only going to use one formula—my roto points above average formula (rPAA)—instead of all three. This shouldn’t change much, as all three formulas showed strong correlations with one another in their valuation of players, both hitters and pitchers.)
League Average
League average, in this case, is simply the average roto point score for all players that would be inserted into any starting lineup in a league, with hitters and pitchers having separate calculations. A typical 10-team league has 13 starting hitters and nine starting pitchers, so in this case, league average is the average score from the top-130 hitters and top-90 pitchers. For 12-team leagues, it is 156 hitters and 108 pitchers.
Bench utilization, pitcher streaming, daily lineup adjustments and individual league rules can muddy the water a little bit with regards to a true league average, but for now we are going to continue the theme of simplicity and use this non-flexible definition of starters.
The league-average amount of raw (non-adjusted) roto points for hitting over the past three full seasons (2009-2011):
- 10-team leagues: 9.61
- 12-team leagues: 9.03
- 14-team leagues: 8.53
- 16-team leagues: 8.08
This graph is displaying the top 156 hitters in terms of their roto point production in relation to league average in a 12-team league in 2011.
Only 71 hitters (45.5 percent) scored above zero. This is because there is so much roto value created by the top few players. Most seasoned players already know this. The total roto point value of those 71 players scoring in the positives was 161.12 rPAA. The top-20 accounted for 101.03 (62.7 percent) of those marginal points. So yeah, it pays to have stars on your team.
On the pitching side, league average is a little lower, again these numbers are averaged from 2009-2011:
- 10-team league: 7.48
- 12-team league: 6.98
- 14-team league: 6.56
- 16-team league: 6.18
This graph shows the rPAA of the top 108 pitchers in a 12-team league for 2011.
As with hitters, pitching scores at the top are disproportionately more valuable than scores throughout the rest of the curve are, but, with pitchers, the dropoff is much steeper. Only 37 players (34.3 percent) recorded a roto point value of above average. And of the 104.38 points produced by those top-37 players, the top-10 earners raked in 65.49 (62.7 percent) of them.
2011 rPAA Percentiles for Hitters (12-team leagues; Non-Positional Adjusted)
2011 rPAA Percentiles for Pitchers (12-team leagues)
Positional Adjustments
It is easier to find production at some positions than others. This is no secret. Thus, we need to adjust for positional value. To do this we simply find the number of players at each position likely to be owned for a particular league size. Let's call this number X. Now, we take the average scores of the top-X players at each position (X will vary by position). After we find the average for each position, we measure each positional average against the others, giving extra credit to the positions with lower positional averages and giving less credit to positions where production is more abundant.
Let's use a 12-team league as an example. There are 12 starting shortstops and 12 middle infielders. Without knowing the player pool for a particular year, it would be safe to assume that roughly 18 shortstops will be owned in a 12-team league.
Obviously, the utility slot will create some difficulties when looking at positions of abundance, but since the distribution of positions used at utility throughout a league will vary from year-to-year and league-to-league, we will ignore this variable for this summary. When actually calculating an overall list at any specific point in time using a static player pool, this can be accounted for with much better accuracy.
Moving on, now that we have a number, 18, we take the average value of the top-18 shortstops in relation to the average at other positions. Let's say it is -1.0. Once we have averages for all other positions, we can use the most abundant position as the benchmark for what all other positional averages should be raised to after positional adjustments. Lets say that first base is the most abundant position, with an average score of +2.0. In this case we will give a +3.0 bump to each shortstop. Now we can value them on the same scale.
Here are the positional averages for 12-team leagues for each position. These are raw scores and have not been set to league average.
_09-11.png)
First base is clearly the most productive position, with outfield a distant second. Contrary to traditional beliefs, shortstop is not substantially scarcer than third base or second base, as all three positions have scored about equally in recent years. Bringing up the rear is catcher, which has a raw score of an average of 3.8 points lower than first base over the past three years.
Again, how middle and corner infielders are distributed, and what positions are commonly play in the utility slot will alter the data some, but this should give us a decent idea of what positions to pay the extra buck for.
How much is the No. 1 player worth?
Fantasy players often wonder whether they should sell the best, or one of the best, fantasy baseball players to try to shore up weak spots in another areas or if they should just hold tight? It is always a good idea to sell a player if you are being overwhelmed with value, but what is the tipping point between accepting and rejecting a proposal?
The top offensive player in 2011 was Kemp, who provided nearly 18.6 raw roto points and just under 10.0 marginal roto points over a league-average player. To figure out what type of two-for-one trade would have worked out in retrospect—say if you made the deal at the beginning of 2011—we can add up Kemp’s 18.6 to a replacement level player worth around 5.4 roto points. (Factoring in a replacement-level player is just a quick way to estimate the value of the player you would have to drop from your roster to make room for two incoming players, as chances are this player will be close to replacement level.)
To trade away Kemp last season, you would have needed at least 24.0 roto points of value in return just to theoretically break even. A couple of combinations that would have just broke even are Joey Votto and Hunter Pence, Prince Fielder and Mark Teixeira, or Jose Bautista and Jay Bruce. And that’s without figuring in that you are probably eventually going to find a player who will produce more than replacement level value.
All of those hypothetical deals would have broken even, but Kemp nearly went 40/40 and competed for a Triple Crown. His 2011 season was easily the best (fantasy) offensive season of the last three years. So this is by no means the actual break-even point when selling the game’s best player.
Entering a season, the top-ranked player is typically valued at an expected 14-15 raw roto points, depending on the degree of aggression the projection exhibits. In this case, two top-40 hitters should be a “fair deal,” but again, that assumes that everything will happen in a vacuum. Chances are that the attentive owner will end up with a player better than replacement level to supplement that top-tier talent, and any player capable of being selected No. 1 overall is almost surely going to be more reliable than two random top-40 hitters. If it was my team and I owned the game’s best hitter in a 12-team league, I would need a bit more than just hypothetical "break-even" value, so something around two top-25 hitters might be the minimum package I'd be looking for.
Whether or not you are trading for the best player in the game, one can use this valuation system to get a general sense of where he or she stands in the deal. The more players that are involved in a deal, the more complex that deal becomes. With a simple calculation of expected roto value, an eight-player trade transforms from a complete uncertainty to a positive or negative number that should eliminate most of the guesswork. Categorical needs will have to be considered, as well, but absent of obscure, league-specific context, this method of trade evaluation should save a lot of time.
Year-to-Year Roto Point Correlations
Pitching correlations:
From 2009 to 2010, roto point totals by pitchers correlated at 0.6154 (r^2 = .3787), and from 2010 to 2011 the correlation was 0.6331 (r^2 = .4107). I also isolated the top-20 pitchers to see if the best pitchers were more reliable year to year. The correlations were 0.2165 (2009-2010) and -0.0989 (2010-2011).
So, while pitchers like Zack Greinke in 2009 and Justin Verlander in 2011 have produced like a top-5 overall player, there is far too much variance with regards to the spectrum of reasonable, expected outcomes to justify taking a pitcher that early. This is why axioms like "wait on pitching" exist. We obviously can dissect the underlying numbers to get a little closer in our projections than these correlations might suggest, but even consistently good pitchers have a high volatility range.
Hitting correlations:
From 2009 to 2010, the roto point totals for hitters showed a correlation of 0.7739 (r^2 = 0.5990). From 2010 to 2011, the correlation was 0.7706 (r^2 = 0.5939). This correlation is much higher than pitchers. It's not ideal, but at least there is more signal than noise with hitters. The top-20 hitters also showed much better year-to-year correlations of 0.4314 (2009-2010) and 0.4543 (2010-2011). These correlations are by no means precise, but hitters are way more reliable than pitchers, which is a predominant factor in why pitchers are infrequently selected in the first few round of fantasy drafts.
Concluding Thoughts
Hopefully, all of this has enhanced your understanding of my methodology. Jeff Gross' E.Y.E.S. method and Mike Silver's FantasyPlayerRater formula, as we discussed Friday, showed strong correlations both to each other and to my method, so once we start getting into some Oliver-driven objective rankings, which are slated to begin Tuesday, following along with their valuations shouldn't be much trouble, either.
Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 5:06am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Say goodbye to Alex Rodriguez for at least the next six weeks or so as he recovers from a broken bone in his left hand. For the moment, Eric Chavez (.258/.322/.454, eight homers in 183 plate appearances as of Sunday afternoon) has picked up the playing time at third base, but since we’re talking about the Yankees, keep an eye out for a solution to be imported to the Bronx.
• Who says Pablo Sandoval isn’t physically fit? The Kung-Fu Panda did, after all, showcase a full split in trying to close a double play last week. But although I enjoy seeing 240-pound, roly-poly athletes perform impossible calisthenics as much as the next guy, Sandoval strained his left hamstring in the process, knocking him to the DL.
As with all hamstring strains, the main concern lies with Sandoval pushing himself too fast in his rush back to the big leagues as Matt Kemp experienced earlier this year when he reaggravated his injury. But manager Bruce Bochy said the strain was high on the hamstring, which, apparently, is a less severe injury. In any event, expect to be without Sandoval for at least the next month and welcome newly-acquired Marco Scutaro as the Giants’ new third baseman, a guy who could have second-base, shortstop and third-base eligibility in the very near future.
• Logan Morrison might be a darling to the Twitter legions, but he’s basically been nothing short of disappointing in 2012. So consider his knee injury the final insult to fantasy owners who hoped he’d build on his hot start last year, as right knee inflammation has pushed him to the DL and could result in season-ending surgery.
• It was unclear last week whether Erick Aybar would need a DL stint after fouling a ball off his toe, but after several days, we have our answer. He will, indeed, go to the infirmary until at least Aug. 6. Maicer Izturis will continue to see action at shortstop, especially since Jean Segura was among the three players traded to Milwaukee in the Zack Greinke deal.
• J.P. Arencibia is gone for at least six weeks after fracturing his right hand, giving Jeff Mathis (.264/.309/.516, five homers) a chance to shine as the Blue Jays’ backstop. And no, don’t expect to see top prospect Travis D’Arnaud assume command in Arencibia’s absence, as he suffered a right knee injury earlier this month and seems like he’ll miss the rest of the season.
• A sore back has pushed Placido Polanco to the disabled list, giving Mike Fontenot and Kevin Frandsen an opportunity to pick up at-bats at the Philadelphia hot corner.
Other bumps and bruises
• Brandon Phillips left Sunday’s game early with what was initially described as left calf cramping, but keep an eye out to see if this condition results in any lost playing time in week 18.
• Both A.J. Pierzynski and Alejandro De Aza have battled nagging injuries over the past few days, with the White Sox catcher sitting out due to an oblique injury and the center fielder sidelined with a wrist injury. Both players should return this week, but it’s possible they’ll miss some time, so keep an eye out for updates.
• Keep an eye on Rafael Furcal’s back injury, which zapped his usefulness over the weekend and could cause him to miss time this week.
Road to recovery
• Assuming he doesn’t get attacked by another suitcase, Jonathan Lucroy is back for the Brewers after missing two months with a broken right hand.
• Remember when Vernon Wells was not completely useless in fantasy? Yeah, I’m a bit foggy on this one, too. But the Angels outfielder is back after missing the past two months with a thumb injury, though an outfield of Mark Trumbo, Torii Hunter and some guy named Mike Trout, along with a resurgent Kendrys Morales at DH, means that Wells’ fantasy value is almost inexistent—presuming, of course, he’s not trade fodder.
• Just in time to swap active roster spots with Sandoval, Aubrey Huff has returned from a knee injury he suffered while celebrating Matt Cain’s perfect game last month. He’ll split time at first base with Brandon Belt.
• Jayson Werth is on his way back from his broken left wrist, though manager Davey Johnson said it’s unlikely he’ll be back on Tuesday, leaving his Week 18 value up in the air.
• There was talk last week that Troy Tulowitzki could miss the entire season after undergoing groin surgery last month, though recent reports indicate that the Rockies’ franchise player will push forward with his rehab assignment. Still, it doesn’t seem likely that he’ll be back before September, so count on Josh Rutledge to continue to see playing time at shortstop. While we’re talking about the Rockies, DJ LeMahieu (.269/.309/.346 in 55 plate appearances) could split playing time at second base along with Tommy Fields (.254/.324/.411 in 375 Triple-A plate appearances) now that Scutaro is gone.
Rotation deviations
• Jair Jurrjens has been nothing less than a virus to fantasy owners this year, so he won’t be missed now that he’s been exiled to the Atlanta bullpen. Kris Medlen (1-1, 2.48 ERA, 1.086 WHIP, 6 K/9 in 54.1 relief innings) is taking over his spot in the rotation, at least for the time being.
• The acquisition of Francisco Liriano will mean a six-man rotation for the White Sox, at least for the time being, especially since it sounds as if Chris Sale is starting to battle arm fatigue.
Trading block
• Not long after hearing that Brett Gardner will miss the rest of the season as he fights an elbow injury, the Bombers went out and acquired Ichiro Suzuki for cash and a couple of minor-leaguers. Personally, I don’t want to hear about Ichiro’s meager .289 on-base percentage (entering Sunday) so far this year, since being traded to the Yankees—and a much, much cushier lineup— has a way of rejuvenating older players.
Ichiro’s days as an elite outfielder may be gone, but his value has certainly received a boost after this deal, especially when one considers he owns a .329/.347/.471 line in 75 plate appearances at new Yankee Stadium.
• It’s towel-throwing time in Miami, apparently, as Anibal Sanchez and Omar Infante were unloaded to Detroit in return for top prospect Jacob Turner and two other minor-leaguers. Infante remains a solid low-end second baseman, and should receive consistent playing time in the Motor City.
Sanchez, 28, (5-8, 4.11 ERA, 1.283 WHIP, 8.0 K/9) has had something of a down year, though his FIP (3.72), xFIP (3.61) and a low strand rate (70.1 percent) hint that he’s been a bit unlucky, especially as he’s on his way to posting the best walk rate of his career. Of course, switching leagues won’t help him, and he surrendered three home runs while losing to the Blue Jays on Saturday, but he’s joining a better team with a better bullpen and remains a solid mid-rotation fantasy starter.
As for Turner, he was quickly sent back down to the minors and probably won’t see any big league service before September.
• Not surprisingly, Hanley Ramirez and the Marlins finally had enough of each other, as the Fish sent their former megastar to the Dodgers for starter Nathan Eovaldi and a minor-leaguer. My THT boss, Nick Fleder, doesn’t believe this trade will boost Han-Ram’s value all that much, since he’s now entering a tougher division pitching-wise and ballpark-wise. But I’ll choose to be optimistic and believe that his numbers since joining LA (.333 average, one home run, five runs scored) are harbingers of a guy who’s joining a playoff contender, a better lineup, and has something to prove, to boot.
As for Eovaldi, of whom I’m a fan, he’ll be moving to a better-hitting division, but otherwise probably will remain a low-level starter in fantasy, one with an iron-clad spot in the rotation.
• As mentioned before, the Angels bolstered their rotation in a big way by acquiring Greinke for Segura and two other minor-leaguers. Greinke, 28, took the loss on Sunday against the Rays but still pitched seven strong innings to lower his ERA to 3.39 on the year. Granted, pitching in the same division as the Texas Rangers is no one’s idea of a good time, but then again, Greinke faced one the top NL offenses in the Cardinals in the NL Central, so expect him to continue to put up strong numbers as the Angels chase a postseason berth.
As for Segura, he’s back in the minors right now, but with Milwaukee scuffling and Cesar Izturis doing a whole lot of nothing at shortstop, it’s not inconceivable that the top prospect and stolen base machine will be back with the big club later this year.
• Liriano has been nothing short of maddening this season—he came off a strong spring training, imploded over the season’s opening weeks, found himself demoted to the bullpen, and has since alternated between high-strikeout games and catastrophes like last Monday, when he was nuked for seven earned runs in fewer than three innings against his current employer, the White Sox. The potential, as always, is there with Liriano, and although he’ll be pitching in a better hitter’s park, perhaps a change of scenery will boost his fantasy value.
• The Pirates are serious about finishing over .500 for the first time since 1992, and as if to prove that point, the team went out last week to acquire Wandy Rodriguez from the Astros in exchange for three minor-leaguers. This trade can only help Wandy’s fantasy value, as he’s coming over to a team with a better offense, bullpen and ballpark, not to mention a pulsating life force, all things which are sorely lacking in Houston.
True, Rodriguez’s 6.2 K/9 would represent a career low if the season ended today (and would mark the fourth straight year in which that mark has lowered), but his sub-four ERA is backed up by FIP and xFIP, and a cruel 68.4 percent strand rate should improve over the season’s last two months.
• Before 2011, Ryan Roberts was a fantasy vagabond, unknown to just about everyone. That was before he smashed 19 home runs and swiped 18 bases while gaining eligibility around the infield. This year, the mediocre batting average remained, but the power and steals disappeared, allowing Arizona to move the 31-year-old to Tampa Bay to soak up playing time ahead of Evan Longoria’s return.
This move probably boosts his value a tad, since any change at this point has to be seen as an encouraging sign and most certainly helps the case of power-hitting prospect Ryan Wheeler, who was recently called up by the D-Backs, though it seems he’ll split playing time in the near term with Willie Bloomquist at third base.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:05am
Friday, July 27, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start) Scott Diamond matches up well with an Indians lineup that mostly gets by via plate patience. Jonathon Niese and Jarrod Parker are solid alternatives and if they aren't available, you could try Zach Britton.
Pitcher (bum): Jeremy Guthrie and the Royals take Blake Beavan and the Mariners today. I'd stack Royals hitters despite Guthrie being the weaker pitcher. With the way Alex Cobb has been pitching lately, his match-up against the Angels could be rough.
Hitter (power): If you want to pump some power, Jonny Gomes is once again available. Adam Lind and Travis Snider could do some damage against Rick Porcello and Pedro Alvarez against Jordan Lyles strikes me as a good bet. Speaking of Alvarez, he's re-graduated from the Grind with an ownership rate now over 50 percent.
Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez has a golden match-up, but let's also focus on the less common names. Starling Marte had a strong debut yesterday and should return to the leadoff slot today. Jean Segura should get another shot after a forgettable debut. And last and probably least, Anthony Gose should be in the lineup with the platoon advantage on his side. He's on thin ice at the moment and could be headed back to Triple-A at any moment.
Tomorrow's grind
A couple options for pitching today.
Joe Kelly has squeezed through a eight starts now without allowing many crooked numbers. The Cubs have a weak lineup, but Kelly's also not nearly as good as his shiny 2.78 ERA.
It's not a sexy pick and he's not likely to earn the win, but Kevin Millwood at Safeco against the Royals is stream-able.
Nathan Eovaldi has seen the Padres a couple times already, but this is his first crack at them as a Marlin. He's the best match-up of the day.
Gomes is finally off, which means he's replaced by Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.
David Murphy's back on the list.
My top platoon player, Andruw Jones, should be unleashed against Jon Lester. Keep in mind, now that Ichiro is in the fold, it's not a guaranteed start.
Stack Pirates against Armando Galarraga and roster Starling Marte while you can. Especially those in keeper leagues.
Reliever watch
Nothing to report.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am
First, it was Josh Shepardson. Then it was Paul Singman. Now, I'm taking over THT's AL Waiver Wire column, looking at some less notable names lurking on the scrap heap of fantasy baseball leagues the nation over. As we look ahead toward August, here are a few names that might be overlooked in your league.
Zach McAllister | Cleveland Indians | SP | ESPN: 8.9 percent ownership; Yahoo: 14 percent ownership
YTD: 3.21 ERA / 1.179 WHIP / 8.4 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.60 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 6.1 K/9
Note: Deadlines being what they are, I’m writing this article before McAllister’s Thursday night start against the Tigers, so both the stats listed and, perhaps, my thoughts on this kid could be in dire need of updating by the time you read this. If he threw a no-hitter last night, I’m a genius. If he got torched, I’m an idiot. So this disclaimer is a way of hedging my bets so I can save face in the morning, ya dig?
I look at McAllister’s ownership percentages and something doesn’t seem right.
He’s got a sturdy job in Cleveland’s rotation at a time of the year when pitchers start to fade from overuse or wind up on the DL with various bumps and bruises. He’s boasting solid peripherals and a very good strikeout rate. And yet, for whatever reason, this guy isn’t being picked up in more leagues.
Someone needs to help me out here.
His solid ERA is backed up by a FIP (3.35) and xFIP (3.82). His .284 BABIP, while a tad low, is by no means charitable. If anything, his 64.2 percent strand rate only suggests room for improvement.
OK, so his strikeout rate isn’t completely backed up by a minor league track record of strikeout-per-inning consistency, though he’s added a half mile to his average fastball velocity over the past year. His 8.5 percent HR/FB rate has room to grow, but ESPN’s Park Factors finds that Progressive Field has basically punished would-be home run hitters this season. And what’s not up for debate is how solid that 2.7 BB/9 mark looks, since that’s right in line with his minor league career.
These reasons alone would round out a convincing argument for McAllister’s appeal. But consider this: Although 2012 (sort of) marks McAllister’s first real major league season, he’s not really on pace to zoom past the 172.1 innings (29 total starts) he pitched last year, so I’m not too worried about him fading down the stretch. Besides, at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds, we’re talking about a big boy here, a 24-year-old who should physically be able to continue pitching at a decent rate throughout the stretch run.
Even if the strikeout rate regresses and the ERA and WHIP tick up, this is a guy who has plenty of value in plenty of formats, Oliver’s pessimism be damned. All he needs is some ownership love to help legitimize him in fantasy.
Recommendation: McAllister needs to be picked up in everything resembling an AL-only league, and probably most mixed leagues, too.
A.J. Griffin | Oakland A’s | SP | ESPN: 13.2 percent ownership; Yahoo: 13 percent ownership
YTD: 2.25 ERA / .972 WHIP / 7.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: N/A
I’m a Mets fan, and thus, a National League kind of guy (perhaps one of questionable taste in organizations), so forgive me if I was unfamiliar with Griffin up until a couple of weeks ago. But as the white-hot A’s keep climbing over the .500 mark, I and the rest of fantasy baseball nation have paid attention to the 24-year-old right-hander who’s been such an integral part of the team’s recent success.
And why shouldn’t we take notice? Besides the stats listed above, he’s posted a 3-0 record, has a 2 BB/9 rate over his six starts (36 innings), pitches in an extremely favorable home ballpark, and, so far, features home/away splits that are fairly similar. His minor league numbers (3.10 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, a nearly strikeout per inning rate and better than 5 K/BB ratio) only provide fuel for his supporters, and before long, I suspect he’ll be among the most trendy pickups in mixed leagues.
But as long as we’re talking up this guy, we might as well point out the negatives: a ridiculous 88.4 percent strand rate and a .230 BABIP more befitting Justin Verlander than, say, a guy dipping his toes into the major league waters for the first time. He’s also featuring a better than 35 percent O-Swing rate which would rank near the top of the American League were he to qualify in innings pitched.
For better or for worse, six starts does not a fantasy stallion make, and yes, he’s faced the hapless Twins and Jose Bautista-less Blue Jays in two of those games (with his squad scoring 16 runs during his start against the latter). But although I think this guy is a legit prospect and assured of a regular job for the rest of the season, something tells me those peripherals are going to be calibrated before the season is through—perhaps in the form of an ugly start or two. That doesn’t mean you should shy away, especially as the A’s claw through the American League, but it doesn’t mean you should regard him as the second coming of Cy Young, either.
Recommendation: Worth a pickup in all AL-only leagues, along with deeper mixed leagues.
Jean Segura | Los Angeles Angels | SS/2B | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 0 percent
.000 / .000 / .000 (3 plate appearances)
Oliver ROS: N/A
You don’t have to be a fantasy genius to understand the following: When a guy gets called up after swiping 33 bases over the first three and a half months of the season, he’s going to get some attention in the waiver business. In the case of Segura, 22, his speed is accompanied by a solid .310/.364/.438 career line in the minor leagues, and, perhaps most encouraging, an impressive 12 percent strikeout rate. The Dominican shortstop was called up last week after Erick Aybar fouled a ball off his right toe, an injury that, while so far not severe enough to place him on the disabled list, is enough to keep the Angels’ starting shortstop off the diamond.
Whether he makes a splash in 2012 or beyond, Segura has some undeniable potential. No. 55 on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects entering this season, he has well-rounded tools and has proven to be a solid defensive player. On the other hand, he carries something of an injury risk after missing nearly three months last year with a strained hamstring, and is jumping from Double-A to the majors, which will only make his adjustment period that much more difficult, depending on how much playing time he receives.
And by far, that’s the biggest problem facing fantasy owners who are eyeballing Segura: whether he’ll receive enough work to make him viable. Unfortunately, the Angels have Howie Kendrick at second base and super-sub Maicer Izturis to soak up innings at shortstop, and they’ve gone ahead and plugged him in, giving him the nod in three of the four games since Aybar went down.
Where does that leave Segura? Beats me. Even if Aybar is out of action for the next, say, two weeks or so, there’s no guarantee Segura will get regular at-bats, and when Aybar returns from the minor injury, Segura will almost certainly be relegated to bench duty or another trip down to the farm to get regular ABs. Obviously, nothing is certain, and Segura is a future star. But I’m not biting on him just yet.
Recommendation: Probably worth a look in deeper AL-only leagues for owners who need steals, but his potential doesn’t merit a pickup in mixed leagues outside of the deepest dynasty formats.
Anthony Gose | Toronto Blue Jays | OF | ESPN: 0.3 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent ownership
.143 / .250 / .214
Oliver ROS: .222/.286/.345
Not to get redundant, but another American League team happened to lose a starting player due to injury last week, and, in his place, called up a promising prospect. For the Toronto Blue Jays, Jose Bautista’s wrist injury allowed the team to promote Gose, 21, to the show. Ranked as Baseball America’s 39th prospect entering the season, this guy has some serious wheels, evidenced by his 223 steals over his minor league career. He can also hit a little, as he was flashing a .292/.375/.432 mark in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League (at a hitter-friendly Las Vegas ballpark, to boot), with five home runs and 41 RBIs.
On the other hand, he was also sporting a 21.3 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A, which is just slightly better than his career mark down on the farm. And like Segura, Gose won’t offer much in the way of fantasy impact in 2012 if he can't get his name on the lineup card on a regular basis. His chief competitors: fellow recent call-up Travis Snider, who’s knocked two home runs and six RBIs over the past week, as well as current platoon partner Rajai Davis.
As for Bautista, he’s reportedly making quick progress in his recovery, though a return date has not yet been announced.
I’m worried about Snider’s fast start, since he was crushing the ball at Triple-A and, at age 24, is both further along than Gose and someone who once sported a high ceiling of his own. If Snider performs, and Bautista returns in a couple of weeks, an outfield rounded out by Colby Rasmus won’t provide many opportunities for Gose to make his mark. But for what it’s worth, I expect him to receive more playing time than Segura, so if steals are needed, he’s probably a step ahead of the Angels’ infielder when it comes to waiver priority.
Recommendation: Worth a pickup in deeper AL-only leagues, though deeper mixed league owners can afford to sit back until he produces on a consistent basis.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:02am
The first post-All-Star break waiver wire column on the Senior Circuit was a success: the top pitcher on the run-down, Wilton Lopez, is soon to inherit the Astros’ sorry closer role, and Josh Rutledge’s ownership rate is rallying thanks to his near-1.000 OPS in an early taste of the big leagues. What does the next week hold in store?
Paul Maholm | Cubs | SP | 18 percent Yahoo ownership | 13.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.88 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 6.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.41 ERA / 1.38 WHIP / 5.5 K/9
Evidentially, plenty believe in Maholm’s hot streak, but he warrants a recommendation on the off-chance he’s available in your league (he was in my 14-team, highly active Yahoo league). Thanks to a wildly improved strikeout to walk ratio in the month of July, Maholm’s posted most welcome ratio stats (a 1.20 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP). It’s been a consistent upward trend for Maholm in terms of his “controlled rate stats” (homers and walks allowed, strikeouts recorded), and the difference between his sorry June (5.18) and stellar July is luck, which isn’t to say that Maholm is surviving on luck during his recent surge.
His balls in play average is consistent with career norms, and while he’s stranding anyone and everyone who's put on base, he’s hardly due for a blowup—he’s thriving, in fact, with an all too-high line drive rate (32.1 percent) that’ll regress to the mean sharply and quickly. I’m buying Paul Maholm in deeper mixed leagues (which is a hard shift from my anti-Maholm sentiment in past times) and hoping he stays in a friendly home park while the deadline creeps upon us.
Wilton Lopez | Astros | RP | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.61 ERA / 1.05 WHIP / 7.1 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.48 ERA / 1.18 WHIP / 6.6 K/9
This is mostly here as a reiteration, but Lopez warrants a pickup in all leagues. Look, I fell for the same Francisco Cordero trap you did for what feels like the umpteenth time, but it’s not too late to correct our most recent blunder. As of yesterday, Lopez was free for the taking in all of my leagues in which I didn’t already own him, | | Some nasty fastball movement from the oft-mentioned Lopez (MLB.com) |
despite the fact that he should be trotting out for the next save opportunity. And though the harsh reality is that the Astros will probably win only a few dozen more games if lucks treats them kindly, Lopez is a highly capable pitcher in his own right and can likely claim double digit saves from this point forward.
Fair warning: in his 12 high-leverage innings this season, Lopez hasn’t been his typical self—his control has fluctuated and he’s allowed a pair of homers—but anything at the moment is better than Coco, and I’m willing to bet the Astros are ready to give the 29-year-old Lopez a shot to prove his worth.
Edward Mujica | Marlins | RP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 4.29 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 5.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.58 ERA / 1.11 WHIP / 7.6 K/9
In his two and two-thirds innings since his return from a short DL stint, Mujica’s managed five strikeouts and nothing else. I figure he factors into the Miami closer-by-committee shenanigans sooner rather than later, as he’s a comparable pitcher to Steve Cishek and no one seems to be gaining trust or role sturdiness from Ozzie Guillen anytime soon.
Cishek is the alpha male at the moment, but he’s one blown save away from a role dip—with such a leash, why isn’t the likely second-in-command a more popular commodity in the world where saves are such a fascination? He’ll garner a couple, and a couple from Mujica counts the same as a couple from Joel Hanrahan. Doesn’t it?
Nate Schierholtz | Giants | OF | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .248 / .317 / .429
Oliver ROS: .267 / .323 / .419
Nate Schierholtz is a perfect fit for fourth outfielder duties on an offensively deficient contender. That’s exactly what Nate Schierholtz currently is. And Nate Schierholtz, a relatively speedy lefty with rare displays of power, is pretty good at his job, mundane as it is. Still, Nate Schierholtz requested a trade from a playoff-positioned Giants team where he won, just days ago, it seems, a World Series—he wants to play every day, and doesn’t seem to care if it’s for a contender or not. The Giants are prepared to answer his call and are flaunting him in the days leading up to the trade deadline; chances are, he ends up in a situation sunnier from the fantasy side of things. He’ll, more likely than not, garner playing time against all righties (against whom he owns a .877 OPS this season) and his power will blossom outside of the cavernous AT&T Park. He’s worth a speculative add.
Carlos Gomez | Brewers | OF | 5 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.7 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .241 / .296 / .439
Oliver ROS: .237 / .288 / .375
Gomez’s main calling card—his generally lauded defense—won’t help those outside of UZR leagues. But his speed certainly will, and so long as Tony Plush keeps being Nyjer Morgan, Gomez should have a clear path to playing time.
In July, the difference between part one and two of Milwaukee's center field platoon of sorts is startling: Gomez owns a .329/.371/.512 slash while Morgan is sub-replacement level with only six hits to his name. The former’s game-changing speed isn’t hurting, either, as he’s an excellent nine-for-ten in stolen base opportunities in the current calendar month. He’s certainly employable so long as he’s healthy and getting burn. He can restore what you lost in Dee Gordon, albeit at a different position. Who knows—maybe someone dropped Starling Marte (a highly recommended pickup who's far gone, probably) for him. Crazier things have happened.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:00am
Imagine if Wins Above Replacement ( WAR) was expressed as a player rater score—Joey Votto had a score of 16.4 in 2011—with little to no explanation of how the score was derived. Well, that is what we face with nearly every publicized measurement of value in fantasy baseball.
In light of this, I have created my own valuation system. Under the working title of “Roto Points Above Average,” I have crafted a formula that measures player value based on how many marginal roto points they provide. The premise is simple: a score of 5.0 means a player has produced an expected return of 5.0 roto points above the average player at the same position.
Fellow THT writers Jeffery Gross and Mike Silver have fashioned valuation systems with the same idea: to use roto points as the product and to value players against the league average player at each position, instead of replacement level. But each system uses slightly different methodology. I will summarize each below.
Roto Points Above Average (rPAA)
This system uses real results from real fantasy leagues to determine how much of each category it takes to equal one roto point. This is done by taking the average differential between each point in a category, then dividing it by the amount of differentials. This gives us a good estimate of how much of each stat it takes to move up or down one roto point in the average league—where gaps between each roto point are equidistant from each other.
Each league will have its own context, such as large, insurmountable gaps between roto points, or a clumping of teams very close to each other in a specific category. Objective measurements cannot know league-specific context, so using the average league and the average gap size between roto points will allow for the widest range of owners to use this method.
These are the average differentials between roto points for the counting stats:
Runs = 25.0
Home runs = 10.3
RBI = 26.3
Stolen bases = 11.3
Strikeouts = 45.6
Wins = 3.71
Saves = 13.8
This means that if you are losing 25.0 expected runs in a trade and gaining 10.3 home runs in that same deal, with all other categories being equal, you are breaking even on expected roto points. Of course this is without taking the context of your league standings into consideration.
For the ratio categories, the equation is a bit different. The ERA and WHIP calculation needs to make the assumption of an average number of innings pitched for each pitcher to properly weight the contribution of each pitcher’s ERA and WHIP. This is because a 3.00 ERA over 200 innings moves a team ERA more than a 3.00 ERA over 150 innings and the player values need to display this.
Similarly, for batting average, there is an assumption of a- bats used to weight contributions in this category. Again, a .300 average over 600 at bats has more impact than that same average in 500 at-bats.
The constants used to weight ratio stats are 554.5 at-bats and 192.5 innings pitched. The innings pitched constant was derived by finding the average innings pitched per start (total IP / GS), which was 5.94 from 2009-2011. Multiply that by 32.4—the average number of starts per pitcher in a five-man rotation (162 divided by 5)—which equals 192.5 (Originally, 195.4 was used as the innings pitched constant, but Nick Fleder pointed out that using multiple years worth of data would give a more accurate representation of the average innings pitched per start, so I have updated my constant to 192.5).
The batting average constant was created by looking at the 390 player seasons in baseball from 2009-2011 with the most at-bats and taking the average at-bats of those players, which was 554.5 (390 is 130 x 3, the number of batters who are starting in a typical 10-team league). Again, Nick's observation influenced a change in my batting average constant, which was originally 546.4.
(I tailored the batting average constant to a 10-team league because the roto point data provided is from 10-team leagues; otherwise I would have geared it to 12-team leagues).
So, assuming 554.5 at-bats for hitters and 192.5 innings pitched for pitchers, here are the average amounts of each of the ratio categories that it takes to move a team up or down one roto point on average:
Batting average: .02925
ERA: 0.6868
WHIP: .118
What this means is that a player who hits .271 over 554.5 at-bats is worth about one expected roto point less than a player who hits .300 over that same number of at-bats. And for pitchers, a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP are each one expected roto point better than a 3.6868 ERA and 1.118 WHIP, each in 192.5 innings pitched.
Once roto scores for each player are calculated, positional adjustments are taken into consideration to weight positions of scarcity with positions of abundance on the same scale. This is done by taking the positional average at each position and subtracting that from each player at that position's roto score. This gives us a roto points above average score, which allows us to intertwine multiple positions on the same scale (i.e. a +5.0 roto point above average shortstop will rank very close to a +5.0 roto point above replacement third baseman).
Formulas for this method (pre-positional adjustment):
Hitters = (runs / 25.0) + (HR / 10.3) + (RBI / 26.3) + (SB /11.3) + (((AVG - 0.27356) / 0.02925) x AB / 554.4)
Pitchers = (K / 45.6) + (Wins / 3.71) + (SV / 13.8) + (((3.6705 - ERA) / 0.6868) x (IP / 192.5)) + (((1.2569 - WHIP) / .118) x (IP / 192.5))
Considerations:
In determining the constant for at-bats, perhaps a more preferable method would be to extract the top 390 individual seasons from 2009-2011 based on wRAA, then take the average number of at-bats of these players. This would give a better estimate of how many at-bats the best 130 players in baseball typically get. But fantasy players are valued differently—especially in 5x5 leagues where runs, RBI and stolen bases are heavily weighted—than major league players, so the accuracy of this player pool might not be any better than the method outlined above.
I could do something similar with starting pitchers and RAR or WAR, but determining how many starting pitchers to use would be difficult and there is no guarantee of increased accuracy, so I am going to stick with what I have, for now.
For a much deeper journey into the details of this formula, direct your attention to this formula’s original posting.
Valuing players with your E.Y.E.S.
Jeff uses Z-scores to calculate player values. His original post describes his method very well...
“Simply put, a Z-Score measures how many standard deviations from the mean (either positively or negatively) a given statistic is. For our purposes, players with high Z-Scores will help you in a given statistical category. Players with a Z-Score of 0 will have a neutral effect. Players with Z-Scores below 0 will hurt you in a category. The greater (or lower) a Z-Score, the more of an impact, for better or worse, a given player will have for your fantasy team in a calculated category.”
Jeff goes on…
“To calculate any given category's Z-Score for a player, you simply take the difference of that player's stat against the mean for that stat and divide it by the standard deviation. For instance, Albert Pujols is projected by Oliver to hit 43 home runs. To calculate Pujols' home run Z-Score (labeled Z-HR in my charts), we take the home run mean (14) and standard deviation (7.9) and use the following formula: (43-14)/7.9. If you plug that into your calculator, you will find that Pujols' Z-HR is 3.67."
E.Y.E.S. weights the ratio categories, similarly to the Roto Points Above Average formula, but uses slightly different constants in doing so.
To adjust for league size, E.Y.E.S. takes the standard deviation of the player pool for each league size, instead of all major leaguers. Jeff determines the player pool as the number of players legally owned by all teams combined, plus any “one category contributor” with a standard deviation of 1.0 or higher in any given category.
To inherit further enlightenment from Jeff’s wizardry, take a look at his work with your own E.Y.E.S. (bad joke intended).
FantasyPlayerRater (FPR)
Like both aforementioned methods, Mike’s Fantasy Player Rater formula values players based on roto points above average, instead of replacement level. Where Mike’s method differs, however, is in his methodology. Instead of a linear formula, the Fantasy Player Rater applies the economic principle of diminishing marginal utility. This means that the more a player accumulates in one specific category, the less valuable each additional contribution in that category becomes. This usually comes into play with high-volume stolen base guys—players like Michael Bourn, Brett Gardner and Ben Revere.
FPR calculates value in relation to league average position. For example, in a 10-team league, each team averages 55.0 roto points. A player who produces 3.0 roto points above average will move a team from 55.0 points to 58.0 points on average. It is important to note that players with negative value are simply below average, and not necessarily below replacement level. Many of these players still merit a place on a rotisserie roster.
One important item of note when using the FPR is that inputs are weighted against full season constants, so rest of season projections will generate lower output values. This is also true of the E.Y.E.S. method (unless you wish to recalculate the formula on your own), but not with the rPAA method.
To use this formula as a guide in your own leagues, check out Mike’s easy to use FantasyPlayerRater site.
Putting the rankings to work
Here are the outputs that each formula generated for the top-30 pre-All-Star break fantasy hitters. Remember, the FPR and E.Y.E.S. formulas are designed to measure full season value, and since these tables are measuring slightly over a half season of statistics, the outputs for these two formulas are going to be low. So don't look at the negative values next to Miguel Cabrera's name and think that these formulas are saying that he is a tick below league average this year. Instead, this basically means that a half season of Miguel Cabrera, at least this season, is nearly as good as a league average player's full season.
And now the top-30 pre-All Star break pitchers.
Notes:
- Values are not adjusted for positional value.
- For the FantasyPlayerRater's hitter values, I assigned each player the utility position, as to measure them on the same scale that the other methods measured on.
- For the E.Y.E.S. method, I derived my own formulas from the information that Jeff provided the method's explanation.
Correlations
Top-30 hitters:
rPAA and FPR = 0.9402
rPAA and E.Y.E.S = 0.9735
E.Y.E.S and FPR = 0.9688
Top-30 pitchers:
rPAA and FPR = 0.9261
rPAA and E.Y.E.S. = 0.9524
E.Y.E.S. and FPR = 0.9188
Each system was created independently, but, as you can see, the results are quite similar.
Future usage
Using Oliver’s rest of season projections, I will be publishing “objective” rest of season rankings for each position—with a little analysis—in the coming days.
Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 2:23am
Thursday, July 26, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Marco Estrada did NOT work out yesterday, but such is the life of a grinder.
But it's a new day with more streaming options than I can count (I lied, there are seven). If I had to pick one to target today, it would be Tommy Milone against the Blue Jays. My number two pick would be Chris Tillman against the Rays. None of the match-ups is perfect, but all are potentially playable.
Pitcher (bum): There isn't really a sure fire bum today, but Dallas Keuchel against the Pirates could take a thumping.
Hitter (power): Not Luke Scott, that's for sure. Jonny Gomes for a third day in a row or Scott Hairston against a fairly tricky pitcher are the best power names.
Hitter (speed): Starling Marte is being activated today and those in keeper leagues should pay attention. There's also Rajai Davis and Quintin Berry. I cut Davis for Marte today in a keeper league today, but I may end up regretting that.
Tomorrow's grind
None of the streaming options are superb tomorrow, but there are a couple interesting ones. Scott Diamond against the Indians won't get you strikeouts, but he should survive the outing. A couple of guys who might not be available— Jonathon Niese and Jarrod Parker—have solid match-ups too. Zach Britton is very available and takes on the A's.
Four straight for grind favorite Jonny Gomes.
A number of interesting names have joined our table, some of which I've ignored the past few days. Angels prospect Jean Segura is up and about although his playing time is in question while they decide if Erick Aybar needs a trip to the disabled list.
Starling Marte begins his major league career today (Thursday) and should be an everyday option in deep formats.
Anthony Gose has been up for awhile and is doing part time work platooning with Rajai Davis. Travis Snider is starting most days.
Reliever watch
Francisco Cordero just needs to be cut in all formats. Including real. He blew his second save in a row and erased a late-inning comeback by the Astros. Wilton Lopez should be taking over immediately.
It was a bad day for Franciscos in baseball. Francisco Rodriguez blew his second in a row as well. Tell me if this sounds familiar: He erased a late-inning comeback while taking the loss. John Axford should be shutting the door on the next opportunity.
Frank Francisco got beat up in a rehab outing for the Binghamton Mets.
Juan Francisco did not blow the save. In fact, he went 3-for-4 with a home run, so not all Franciscos were affected.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:49am
Poor defense, poor attitude: some might argue that offensive dominance—or something close to it—would offset Hanley Ramirez’s detriments. After all, his .319 batting average and 143 wRC+ were welcomed in Florida from 2007-2010, despite his migraine-causing behavior. He was the fourth best batter, per fWAR, in said time frame, so management could turn a blind-ish eye to his antics.
| | All he needs is a friend. (US Presswire) |
The wheels fell off circa 2010 in the clubhouse, though, where he openly feuded with manager Fredi Gonzalez, and by 2011, he was hardly a semblance of the same player who was once Rookie of the Year and thrice an All-Star. In fact, you’d be hard pressed to find someone who would claim that Ramirez was even an asset last year: his defense was typically unimpressive, his injuries constantly flaring up, and his offense met the rest of his game in the gutter. He was below average, period.
So the Marlins decided to anger their former franchise cornerstone by signing Jose Reyes to a clearly bloated contract, and subsequently requested that Ramirez move to third base. He didn’t take kindly to it, and his performance reflects that: below average UZR, close to league average offensive output, a dip in plate discipline and an ugly .246 batting average. Still, the Dodgers accepted Ramirez’s countless flaws, offered him a home at shortstop (perhaps only until Dee Gordon comes back, but that remains to be seen), and, one would suppose, stocked up on Advil for the long run. How will he play in Dodger blue? Is he ready to once again help your fantasy lineup?
Angle One: Parks, generally
Marlins Park in Miami has a rep of being, after mere months, a pitcher’s park. And while it’s hard to hit home runs in the new stadium (a 0.801 Park Factor), it actually functions as a hitter’s park, with a favorable Park Factor of 1.11 in the runs department. Dodger Stadium, on the other hand, has long been understood to favor pitchers, and this year is no different: it has a 0.852 Park Factor for runs scored, and is nearly as hard to hit homers in as Marlins Park (0.847).
Hanley’s new schedule will include six games at AT&T Park, three at PNC Park, three at PETCO Park, and 29 games in his new home park. All in all, the average runs Park Factor for Hanley’s remaining games is 0.921, or roughly equivalent to hitting in Minute Maid Park this season. If Ramirez had played for the Marlins, though, he would’ve enjoyed a runs Park Factor of 1.079 for the remainder of the year, or roughly equivalent to hitting in Busch Stadium this season. Hanley got the raw end of the deal here.
Angle Two: Parks, Hanley-specific
His previous home park was home for only a brief period, so the sample size we draw from is merely 200 or so plate appearances. The splits are substantial, though, as Ramirez has been (in terms of raw offensive output) as good as Prince Fielder (wRC+ of 136) when he’s playing at Marlins Park. On the other side of the spectrum is Hanley Ramirez away from his home, where he’s been as offensively inept as Brandon Crawford (wRC+ in the range of 70).
In previous years, the split has been existent but hardly noticeable. This year, poor luck is harming Ramirez in away ballgames, where he has a .198 BABIP. But there is some concern in his total loss of plate discipline on the road: his walk to strikeout ratio tumbles from 0.73 to 0.33. His splits should be dismissible in that he was capable on the road last year, but perhaps Hanley will miss Marlins Park—where he’s been a Prince Fielder-like figure—more than we think.
And while in only 79 career plate appearances at Dodger Stadium, Ramirez’s OPS is upwards of 1.000, like all else in Ramirez’s game, the trend has tumbled from 2009-2011. He’s managed only a .678 OPS in Dodger Stadium in his 30 at-bats in recent times. Who knew a nugget so small could be so telling?
Angle Three: steals
The Marlins have stolen the most bases in the league at 95, and have attempted 22 more than the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a poor stolen base success rate despite the presence of base running guru Davey Lopes, and while the potential for a Matt Kemp-like mentorship is there, firstly, Ramirez needs to prove himself willing to improve. I’d expect a short-term dip in steals, which isn't the focal point of his game anymore, anyhow.
Angle Four: Lineup protection
In Giancarlo Stanton’s absence from the lineup due to injury (July 3 to present), the following goon squad has protected, at different points, Ramirez: Justin Ruggiano, Emilio Bonifacio, Greg Dobbs, Austin Kearns and Carlos Lee. His protection performed well, but more to the point, Hanley suffered. He managed only seven hits. He struck out 12 times, saw his batting average dip 13 points, and his on-base percentage tumble 11 points.
So while it's quick to draw conclusions, Hanley seems to function well with a true threat situated behind him in the lineup. Someone who can scare pitchers into an aggressive approach with his immediate table-setter; someone who can make pitchers throw strikes, in fear that they'll put men on base for the superior hitter to come. Someone who does match that profile is Giancarlo Stanton. Someone who doesn't is James Loney, and for now, Ramirez will slot in the five hole ahead of Loney.
While hitting behind Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier (both successful on-base machines) could lead to more at-bats with runners in scoring position, tumbling down the lineup and having James Loney and Luis Cruz serve as protection doesn't bode well for his runs scored. Pitchers might not give him much to hit with Loney's .642 OPS considered, and the lineup switch is probably a wash, stats-wise. You give and you get.
Angle Five: Intangibles and conclusions
Perhaps this can be dismissed as my know-nothing speculation, but to this viewer, Hanley Ramirez doesn’t seem like the type who’s all that excited to play baseball. He stumbles along, jogs (if that) down the line when he hits fly balls, plays unexcited defense, and survives, by all accounts, on raw talent alone. And while I could be wrong, I wouldn’t give him the typical benefit-of-the-doubt in the “He’s bored because he’s not playing for a contender” department. I can imagine that a playoff race could light a fuse under Ramirez’s ass, and that he’s not just a robot playing baseball, but it’s hardly a stone-cold conclusion.
A change of scenery, which means an escape from the most hated man in baseball at the moment (Jeffrey Loria), may help Ramirez salvage some value. But he’ll face tougher ballparks to go along with high pressure and expectations, and I wouldn’t hold my breath for a turnaround.
All park factors from ESPN. All other stats from FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:24am
Adam Lind, 1B
I’ve been burned by Adam Lind as many times as you have. Yet, I keep dipping into the well time after time. His exceptional 2009 campaign remains burned in my memory, though I can’t imagine him ever repeating that level of performance again.
Nevertheless, he can still be a competent fantasy first baseman, even if a bit underwhelming.
The .232 average is ugly, but that figure is also why he is so attainable, at only 46.6 percent owned in ESPN leagues. Things aren’t actually that grisly, however. His plate discipline characteristics indicate a 14.8 K percentage, not a 19.2 percent rate as is currently. In addition, his BABIP should recover to the .285-.290 range— a 30-point improvement. All told, he should be able to pace about 25 homers from here on out and should hit in the .265-.275 range the rest of the way.
The fact he’s still allowed to bat fifth is laughable, but that’s the Blue Jays’ problem, not yours.
No one ever accused a buy low player of being a stud, and Lind certainly isn’t one. What he is, however, is a useful corner infielder in 12-team leagues who should be slightly below league average. It shouldn’t cost much to get him—I would consider a No. 4 or No. 5 starting pitcher a fair offer. And if a guy like this can fill a hole, it can add a few points of value.
Projection, rest of the season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 75.5 R, 24.7 HR, 84.2 RBI, 1 SB, .272 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -0.735 points below average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 5.458 points below average
Alex Presley, OF
He’s fought through an ugly campaign thus far, batting just .231 with six home runs and a .633 OPS. As a result, his ownership has plummeted to under one percent in ESPN leagues.
Things should be trending up soon, and owners in need of outfield help should think about adding him. I see a batting average recovery of approximately 40-50 points the rest of the way, brought on by a reduction in K-rate of 6 percent and BABIP increase of about 50 points.
Further aiding the comeback is that, somehow, Alex Presley is still batting leadoff. I can’t overstate how valuable this lineup position is for a hitter like Presley, whose skills align him to either first or eighth/ninth.
Pick him up if he’s on the waiver wire or target him as a toss-in to complete a deal if he’s already owned.
Projection, rest of season (Pro-Rated to 155 GP): 94.8 R, 14.0 HR, 58.3 RBI, 22.9 SB, .2835 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 0.946 points above average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 4.416 points below average
[Note: This article was submitted prior to Starling Marte's recall, meaning Presley's chances to bounce back are hampered even further. Timing is everything.]
Adam Dunn
It’s hard to qualify the major league home run leader as a buy-low candidate, but to see exactly why I categorized Dunn as a buy-low, check out his value with a .210 average at the end of the blurb. He loses almost two points in value. Even with the homers, there are plenty of owners scared off by his .210 average and you can be there to capitalize.
An improvement in his ghastly O-Contact percentage should pull his strikeouts into the 29-30 percent range as opposed to 35, where he currently stands. Combined with an uptick in his .250 BABIP, you’re looking at a batter hitting .235-.245.
I think the rest of his line stays about where it is, though a slight drop in power is expected. I see vintage Adam Dunn the rest of the way.
Projection, rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 93.2 R, 40.7 HR, 108.3 RBI, 1 SB, .2387 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 2.514 points above average
***Adam Dunn’s stats with .210 average: 89.7 R, 40.7 HR, 102.6 RBI, 1 SB, .210 AVG
*** FantasyPlayerRater.com Value, with .210 average: 0.795 points above average
Pedro Alvarez, 3B
Alvarez is suffering in many of the same ways Adam Dunn is suffering: a strikeout rate way out of line with his contact rates and a BABIP that should be far higher.
Sure, Alvarez is no wizard in concerns to contact, but he isn’t this bad. While he did strike out at over a 30 percent clip last season, he has improved in every meaningful indicator that determines strikeout rates: his O-Contact is up, his Z-Contact is up, and he’s swinging more. My regression equations suggest a batter more in line with a 25 percent strikeout rate.
In addition, he should be capable of improving his BABIP up into the .305-.310 range. This, combined with an improvement in his strikeout rate should haul his batting average up into the high .270s, an increase of almost 50 points.
With fewer strikeouts (more balls in play) comes more home runs. With more home runs and average come more runs and RBI. The only thing holding him back is the batting order, where he’s hitting sixth.
For those in need of third base help, Alvarez is a great target. Being owned in just 84 percent of leagues means he’s readily attainable, though he will cost you a decent player. I’d say that a number three or good number four starting pitcher should be a good opening offer, and don’t be afraid to give up more.
Projection rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 78.9 R, 31.5 HR, 78.2 RBI, 1 SB, .2772 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 1.552 points above average (12-team leagues)
Current pro-rated value: 1.553 points above average
J.D. Martinez, OF
Early in the year, a lot of owners pegged J.D. Martinez as a breakout candidate after flashing decent power and average in 2011. Four months later and those claims seem amiss—but there is hope for Martinez yet.
I expect his O-Swing and Z-Swing rates to climb a bit back into the upper 20s and upper 60s, respectively, and a stabilization of his contact rates. With an improvement in his BABIP to about the .320 range, you’re talking about a hitter who can eclipse the .270 mark.
Don’t give up much for Martinez, but with a 16 percent ownership rate, you shouldn’t have to. He can fill a fifth outfielder or utility role for you.
Projection, rest of season (pro-rated to 155 GP): 71.3 R, 19.4 HR, 75.8 RBI, 1 SB, .2761 AVG
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -1.259 points below average
Current pro-rated value (155 GP): 3.592 points below average
Posted by Mike Silver at 5:03am
Wednesday, July 25, 2012
The Pirates appear primed to play baseball in October. The open question seems to be to be how many games they’ll play.
If they sneak into the Wild Card spot behind Cincinnati (likely) or St. Louis (less likely), the Buccos are assured only a single game; if they manage to win the NL Central clean, a guarantee of at least three days of October baseball will be in order.
| | Goodbye, dejected looking Wandy. (US Presswire) |
To aid them in their quest for uncharted success, Neil Huntington & Co. bit the Wandy Rodriguez contract pill (as he's now under expensive team control through 2014) and got an able-bodied and relatively sturdy third or fourth starter (behind James McDonald, A.J. Burnett and perhaps Erik Bedard). He’s certainly better than Kevin Correia or Jeff Karstens in the game of baseball, but in the fantasy sphere, all that matters is how he’ll perform individually. Will the move to PNC Park help Wandy be Wandy better than Minute Maid could?
Angle One: Parks, generally
Score one for PNC Park. The scenic wonder in Pittsburgh has a Park Factor of 0.673 in the runs department this year, according to ESPN. Minute Maid, meanwhile, has a 0.915 mark, which means that both are pitchers parks, but the difference is hardly negligible: it exceeds the difference, for example, between scoring runs at Nationals Park (1.044) and the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington (1.162).
Home runs, which have long been an enemy of Wandy’s, are much harder to come by in Pittsburgh, which has a Park Factor of 0.584. Minute Maid Park has a mark of 1.086, which favors the hitters. And, for what it’s worth, we can pretty well rule out any suggestions of aberration: In 2011, PNC had a much more respectable 0.799 Park Factor in the home run department, while Minute Maid had a 1.160 Park Factor. Suffice it to say that the main difference between the two parks is in home runs allowed, and in that, PNC Park comes out way ahead.
Angle Two: Parks, Wandy-specific
Rodriguez has pitched in the same division for his entire career, and in his 114 Minute Maid Park starts since 2005, he’s surrendered 69 home runs in 688+ innings, or roughly one per every 9.98 innings. Despite his NL Central loyalty, he’s managed only 10 starts at PNC Park in his career. Small sample size aside, he surrendered only three homers in 60+ innings, which amounts to one per every 20 innings. No one will complain if Wandy’s 10.3 percent home run to fly ball rate dips closer to nine.
Angle Three: Team defense, this year
Both the Astros and Pirates are unimpressive on defense, but the Pirates are a little more capable. The Pirates have made 83 errors to the Astros’ 103, but both teams sport negative Defensive Runs Saved (though the Pirates have lost roughly 30 fewer runs; high praise, I know). Meanwhile, the Pirates rate much better on UZR (where they actually have a positive mark) while the Astros are in the red (though only slightly at -2.9). It’s not a shocking change in scenery, but a little more run prevention (or rather, a little less run allowance) and fewer errors should help Wandy improve his ratio stats.
Angle Four: Team offense, this year
Both teams, over the larger sample, are horrid on offense. Altogether, the Astros rate as a team 14 percent below league average on offense while the Pirates are only 2 percent better, but perhaps the Extra 2% can make a difference?
In July, the Pirates have woken from their collective, yearlong slumber, and have managed a month of above-average offensive ball. They rated as 16 percent above league average, while the Astros have tumbled the wrong way, clocking in at 34 percent below league average. Rodriguez will surely welcome more run support.
In Wandy’s five July starts, the Astros have chipped in merely 14 runs of offensive support, and only eight of those have come when he was still in the game. He should benefit from a suddenly bat-hot support squad that might land an impact offensive player (perhaps Chase Headley, for one) in the next week.
Angle Five: Intangibles and conclusion
Who knows what kind of a gamer Wandy Rodriguez is, as he hasn’t pitched in a playoff game—or anything close, really—since his rookie campaign in 2005. But he does leapfrog from playing for a last place team to a franchise on the cusp of an exciting and monumental playoff berth. I could see motivation and newfound optimism benefitting Wandy.
That aside, he should function well in one of the friendliest pitching parks in America, one that’s turned James McDonald into a probable Cy Young vote getter (1.69 ERA at home, accompanied by a 0.89 WHIP and a 2.81 FIP before Tuesday’s unkind start). Anything would be considered an upgrade from the anemic ‘Stros and the unforgiving Minute Maid Park, but Wandy Rodriguez struck gold, it seems.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 11:02am
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): An easy choice (for me) for once. Marco Estrada has climbed way up my non-existent rankings list and should be owned in most formats.
Trevor Cahill is a solid alternative if available and Kevin Correia is a reliable, if not exciting, option.
Pitcher (bum): As if you needed a reminder about the wanton nature of baseball, some pretty crappy pitchers not only survived their outings yesterday but pitched very well.
Nick Blackburn is the goat of the day and he's been a reliable one. We'll see what the White Sox can do. They're a hard team to bulk up on since you can start pnly one of Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn.
Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes gets another chance to use his boom-goes-the-dynamite stick. I hear he grunts that with every swing. In the opposing dugout, Adam Lind will be trying to match him swing for swing. Let's hope they connect...
Hitter (speed): Quintin Berry should get to test his wheels against Derek Lowe. Though he is not mentioned in yesterday's table, I've decided that it's time that Carlos Gomez be picked up by more teams.
Tomorrow's grind
We're at half strength tomorrow with only eight games, yet it might be one of the best days for pitcher streaming I've seen in awhile. The list includes Jason Vargas, Matt Harvey (on waivers in most leagues), Zach McAllister, Jake Westbrook, Tommy Milone, Aaron Laffey and Chris Tillman. None of those pitchers have perfect match-ups, but they're all playable.
It's a thin group, but there's still plenty of fodder to go around.
Gomes returns for his third straight party. There are plenty of other power options in the second tier like Scott Hairston and Luke Scott.
Rajai Davis and Quintin Berry are well set for a steal opportunity.
Pick up Lorenzo Cain. I mean seriously, why are you waiting? He's settling in as the Royals clean-up, making him a five category producer.
Reliever watch
The Brewers have blown two saves in spectacular fashion on back-to-back nights. Last night it was the middle relievers—specifically Manny Parra and Kameron Loe—who supplied the letdown.
Francisco Cordero picked up right where he left off in Toronto with a blown save in his first attempt for the Astros. Don't say I didn't warn you away.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:46am
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): There aren't any starters I'm even remotely interested in. Mike Leake might have the best match-up of the day for available arms. Garrett Richards and Paul Maholm are the not-so-pleasant alternatives.
Edwar Cabrera against the Diamondbacks could be interesting if only because he's a relatively unknown quantity. He survived the PCL, which has to count for something.
To answer yesterday's reader question about Maholm, I do not like his match-up. The Pirates are killing it lately.
Pitcher (bum): We've got our share of bums today. Will Smith against the Angels and Brett Cecil against the A's look like the most exploitable.
Masher with a Match-up: It's hard to pass up Jonny Gomes against a struggling left-hander like Cecil. Not a lot of true power options out there as alternatives today, but I'd expect a couple hits from Lorenzo Cain.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis has a nice match-up against Richards. I'm not sure if he'll steal a bag, but David Murphy has one of the best well-rounded match-ups of the day.
Tomorrow's grind
My favorite waiver starter— Marco Estrada—has a survivable match-up against the Phillies. However, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard have been providing some firepower lately, so be wary.
Trevor Cahill is a little over 50 percent owned, but I've seen him surface in a couple of my leagues and I like him against the patchwork Rockies.
Kevin Correia reliably gives up about three runs in about six innings. The Pirates have been providing plenty of run support so his start against the Cubs appears playable.
Gomes returns with a second consecutive day of relevance and Adam Lind joins him as a masher with a match-up. I might have to rename the Hitters (power) section now...
I'll throw Quintin Berry's name out there as a guy who could steal a couple bags against Derek Lowe.
I like Salvador Perez and Cain enough to recommend them against Jered Weaver, which makes me wonder why either of them are on the majority of waiver wires. Second half laziness?
Reliever watch
Francisco Rodriguez has blown five of eight save attempts including an ugly four run comeback last night. Granted, some of those blown saves were of the setup variety.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am
Monday, July 23, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
There is no table for yesterday, but I do have some quick picks below.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): I guess Clayton Richard against the Giants is the match-up to go with today. If that doesn't sound convincing...
Francisco Liriano against the White Sox seems like a worthwhile throw of the dice if you're open to an all or nothing gamble.
Pitcher (bum): I'd expect the Angels to smack Bruce Chen around. However, it's hard to roster many Angels as they tend to be expensive. You can also try Red Sox players against Scott Feldman. A more under-the-radar play is Gavin Floyd against the Twins.
Hitter (power): John Mayberry Jr. matches up well against soft-tossing lefties like Randy Wolf. If you're looking for someone less widely available, Alfonso Soriano might be able to swat one against Erik Bedard.
Hitter (speed): Go with Ben Revere, Denard Span, and Craig Gentry. The latter has more potential as a five category presence.
Tomorrow's grind
It's another one of those days where there really isn't a freely available pitcher worth streaming. Mike Leake against the Astros might come the closest.
Jonny Gomes against Brett Cecil seems like a perfect match-up (for Gomes).
Adoption rates for Lorenzo Cain and Salvador Perez are picking up. They're both worth owning in most formats. Cain is actually batting clean-up with some frequency.
Rajai Davis has the best pure speed match-up against Travis Blackley. As I noted in the past, the pitcher match-up is slightly less important for burner types. They tend to follow the "put it in play and see what happens" model of hitting.
David Murphy has a good match-up to show off his well-rounded talent against Clay Buchholz. However, Buchholz has looked pretty good since coming off the disabled list.
Reliever watch
Looks like Francisco Cordero is a closer again. Unless you desperately need those saves and have some ERA and WHIP to spare, you may want to let an opponent swallow that bitter pill.
Jose Valverde is battling another day-to-day injury. Joaquin Benoit locked down the save yesterday but he doesn't seem poised to take over the role despite Valverde's struggles this season.
Javy Guerra blew a save opportunity, further solidifying Kenley Jansen's standing. Jansen had gone a couple days in a row and was unavailable.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:01am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• A left wrist strain landed Jose Bautista on the DL last week, sidelining the slugger until at least August. That opens up a spot in Toronto’s outfield and could translate to regular playing time for promising 21-year-old prospect Anthony Gose, who was called up in Bautista’s absence.
Gose, who was batting .292/.375/.432 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, probably figures to contribute more defensively than offensively, especially in the near term, though he’s an immediate stolen-base threat, having swiped 223 bags in his minor league career.
In his quest for playing time, the biggest problem facing Gose is Travis Snider, who was also called up last week after shredding Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .335 average and 1.021 OPS in 56 games. Both players are worth a look in AL-only leagues while Bautista recovers, though I suspect Snider will secure more at-bats over the next week or so as Gose is used as a late-inning defensive replacement/pinch runner.
• Joey Votto underwent arthroscopic knee surgery last week, giving Todd Frazier a chance to pick up at-bats at first base for the Reds. Early reports suggest Votto is making progress ahead of schedule, but he’s probably going to miss the next couple of weeks.
• Ian Desmond’s oblique injury is more serious than previously realized, as an MRI revealed late last week that he suffered a tear, which will keep him out for at least a few weeks. Danny Espinosa will continue to see starts at shortstop, while Steve Lombardozzi will continue to anchor second base.
• After getting rocked over his last three appearances, Johan Santana landed on the DL late last week with a sore ankle, opening up another wound in the Mets’ already thin rotation. But after being passed over for a promotion earlier in the month, it now looks as if prospect Matt Harvey will make his major league debut on Thursday, even though he was lit up in his last Triple-A start. The Mets have been reluctant to push their second-best pitching prospect, but one imagines they'll give him an opportunity to stick around given the loss of Gee and Santana's absence. Harvey is worth a flier in all NL-only leagues and someone worth considering in deeper mixed leagues.
Meanwhile, rookie Jeremy Hefner (1-3, 5.85 ERA, 1.360 WHIP, 5.01 K/9) will pick up a start on Wednesday.
• Injuries have limited Matt Capps to just 28.1 innings this season, and that number is not going to get any higher for a while, as rotator cuff irritation has placed the Twins’ closer on the DL until at least September. Glen Perkins and Jared Burton are the obvious choices to pick up saves in Capps’ absence, and both players closed games this week.
• Luke Scott was placed on the DL for the second time in a month after straining his right oblique, giving both Hideki Matsui and Jeff Keppinger more playing time.
Other bumps and bruises
• It’s bad enough that Hanley Ramirez sliced up a finger on his right hand after punching a fan in the dugout a few weeks ago (fan as in mechanical object, not paying customer, for what it’s worth). But now, we’re learning that Ramirez failed to take his medication one day last week, leading him to an infection which will cost him at least the upcoming series against Atlanta, Ozzie Guillen said. Greg Dobbs picked up some starts at third base over the weekend, so it’s fair to assume he’ll keep Han-Ram’s seat warm until he returns.
• Lower back tightness will force Roy Oswalt to miss Monday’s start against the Red Sox, giving Scott Feldman a chance to pitch, the team announced Sunday. Also, it seems as if Colby Lewis will miss Tuesday’s start with forearm stiffness, which could result in Martin Perez getting promoted to the majors for the second time this season.
• Matt Garza left his start on Saturday after just three innings due to a triceps cramp, which could land the Cubs’ veteran on the DL. It will be interesting to see what, if any, impact the injury has on Garza’s trade value as the deadline nears.
• It sounds as if a left hip flexor strain will torpedo Nick Swisher in week 17, as he’s not expected to be back in the lineup until Friday.
• Drew Pomeranz will miss his next start with arm soreness, the Rockies announced Sunday. In his place, Carlos Torres (1-0, 2.19 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 5.8 K/9 in 12.1 relief innings) could take the ball on Tuesday, or the team could dip into the minors to call up a replacement, manager Jim Tracy said.
• Erick Aybar suffered a toe contusion after fouling a ball off his right foot over the weekend, and he could miss playing time in week 16. In response, the Angels called up infielder Jean Segura, who was hitting .294/.346/.404 in 414 Double-A plate appearances this year. Segura, 22, was listed as Baseball America’s 55th rated prospect entering this season, but it’s unclear whether he’ll gather enough at-bats to make a fantasy impact, or whether Aybar’s injury is significant enough to open up a spot in the starting lineup.
• Wilin Rosario could land on the disabled list after spraining his ankle trying to block a pitch last week.
Road to recovery
• Although he doesn’t yet have a timetable for his return to the majors, Jayson Werth (wrist) made his first rehab appearance over the weekend.
• After missing nearly two months with a right Achilles injury, Andy Dirks was assigned to Triple-A Toledo on Sunday to begin his rehab assignment.
• It looks as if Gavin Floyd will make the start today after missing a few weeks with right elbow tendinitis.
Minor developments
• Phenom Trevor Bauer was demoted to Triple-A after struggling in a start last week against the Reds. One imagines he’ll be back with the club before long, but owners in shallower redraft leagues might consider cutting him, as he won’t be a fantasy factor in the immediate future.
• After torching Triple-A pitching this year (.351/.388/.572) and leading the minors in RBIs, third baseman Ryan Wheeler was called up to the Diamondbacks over the weekend. Unfortunately, it’s not clear how much playing time he’ll garner, as the team still plans to use Ryan Roberts and Willie Bloomquist at the hot corner for the time being. But if Wheeler can get off to a fast start, he’s definitely someone to watch in mixed leagues, since the power is legit, and he could force his way into regular playing time to finish out the season.
Commodities on the move
• Remember when people actually debated which team got the better end of the Melky Cabrera- Jonathan Sanchez trade? Me neither. Ditto goes for the Jeremy Guthrie- Jason Hammel trade that also went down over the offseason between the Rockies and the Orioles, as Hammel enjoyed a breakout season while Guthrie wallowed in a 3-9 record with a 6.35 ERA and 1.688 WHIP. So last week’s deal was a classic change-of-scenery opportunity, as the teams swapped Guthrie and Sanchez.
For Sanchez, a once-formidable strikeout pitcher with a no-hitter under his belt, the chronic control problems that have plagued his career came roaring back in an ugly way this season thanks to a 7.4 BB/9, and somehow I don’t think Colorado will grant him any favors, even if a return to the National League can only help him.
As for Guthrie, he’ll be joining a team that features a bullpen with a better ERA and strand rate, and a guy suffering from a 18.6 percent HR/FB rate will almost certainly keep more balls in the park, despite facing a designated hitter every time through the batting order.
• The White Sox solidified their bullpen in a big way last week when they acquired Brett Myers from Houston, dealing the Astros two minor leaguers and a player to be named later. Myers, 31, has put together a solid season in his return to closing duties, compiling 19 saves, a 1.340 WHIP and a 54.3 percent ground ball rate, though his 5.87 K/9 was well below expectations, considering he was a strikeout-per-inning pitcher during his 2007 campaign as the Phillies closer.
No matter; he brings credibility to the back end of the White Sox bullpen, and while Robin Ventura insists that Addison Reed will continue to get the ball in the ninth inning, Reed’s recent inconsistency—and the White Sox need to perform during the stretch run—leads me to believe Myers could emerge as the man in Chicago before long.
As for Houston, Francisco Cordero will take over as Myers’ replacement, though the 38-year-old will only have NL-only value until he can prove to be a reliably daily option, as well as fending off advances from Wilton Lopez, who’s had a solid season thus far.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:03am
Friday, July 20, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): As I stated yesterday, I've found Marco Estrada's stuff to be quite impressive this season. He's offering generous helpings of strikeouts with a scanty side of walks. Based purely on numbers, Miguel Gonzalez has a tolerable match-up against the Indians.
Pitcher (bum): Is Nick Blackburn the worst pitcher of the season? I think so. And I expect the Royals to add some more whoopin' to his line. As an alternative, I think the Rays could get to Hisashi Iwakuma in a big way.
Hitter (power): Who but Andruw Jones. Carlos Pena and Luke Scott are a nice pair of alternatives.
Hitter (speed): I don't really think Lorenzo Cain is likely to steal a base, but I love his match-up and expect big things today. Beyond the usual suspects, I'd look at Tony Campana, Gerardo Parra, and Denard Span.
Tomorrow's grind
Chris Tillman against the Indians is one of the better freely available match-ups. You could also try Carlos Zambrano against the Pirates and hope that it's a day that Andrew McCutchen doesn't hit a bomb.
Alex Cobb against the feeble Mariners is worth a glance despite the fact that Cobb has struggled against mediocre competition lately.
J.A. Happ still looks like he should be having a much better year than he is. A game against the lefty-heavy Diamondbacks could help his numbers.
It might be a good day to own Adam Lind.
I'm hoping that Tyler Colvin keeps finding his way into the lineup as he frequently draws exploitable match-ups like Kip Wells.
The options above from the Royals and Twins probably have the best combination of talent, availability, and favorable match-ups. And they play each other, which should make things interesting.
Reliever watch
An uneventful evening although Drew Storen threw a clean inning in his return from the disabled list. He was brought into a game in which the Nationals were behind five runs in the ninth. Tyler Clippard still has a grip on the job, but it's slipping.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:37am
Consider this second half a new dawn; don’t forget your first half, but build off it and grow out of it. Play aggressively, take risks, and stay as many steps ahead as you can. I’m going to attempt to sift through speculation, rumor, and unstable depth charts to give you a handful of options to help you make the most of the last several months. A hundred words or less for the next handful of names, some new, some old, but all uniquely useful, I think. You ready?
Josh Rutledge | Rockies | SS | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .300 / .348 / .500
Oliver ROS: .282 / .316 / .422 (2012 forecast)
Troy Tulowitzki is injured, Marco Scutaro is on his way out of town, and a Double-A player was summoned to lighten the load. So why am I recommending him? He hit .348 in High-A ball (albeit as a 22-year old) last season, and held his own this year in Double-A with a .303 batting average, all while flashing plus speed and pop. Oliver projects double digits in the steal and home run departments with an above-.280 batting average to boot. It’s too early to call him a rich man’s Scutaro, but he could well be in his rookie season.
Will Venable | Padres | OF | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .245 / .319 / .406
Oliver ROS: .245 / .319 / .406
Venable isn’t even an everyday starter, but has remained fantasy relevant (to an extent) for years because of his plus-plus speed and here-and-there displays of power. Surprisingly, here and there hasn’t just been away from PETCO Park, as he’s hit an equal 17 homers in both PETCO and away parks over the last three years (a total of about 1,000 at-bats). He’s stolen 61 bases at a prime rate, and though he can’t hit lefties, he certainly could end up in a hitter’s park at the deadline. Should he, he might find himself a candidate for a 10/10 second half.
Ramon Hernandez | Rockies | C | 4 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .196 / .237 / .355
Oliver ROS: .281 / .339 / .430
So it didn’t go exactly how I wrote it up. “Hernandez may be the best dollar catcher you can find (we’ll call the 26th round equivalent to the dollar-player point in auctions), providing home run value without low batting average. “ Funny how it works—nice offensive catcher struggles mightily in the hitter’s park of all hitter’s parks—but we can blame the ugly .592 OPS on a whole lot of bad luck and injuries, mostly. He’s not an every-day guy anymore, but he can still hit .280 with power in the waning months.
Adam Eaton | Diamondbacks | OF | N/A in Yahoo leagues| 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .300 / .348 / .500
Oliver ROS: .282 / .316 / .422 (2012 forecast)
Farm-system standout Adam Eaton started getting major press with the Justin Upton sweepstakes, as there was some speculation that the Diamondbacks would call him up and give him some burn as their season slips away. And why not? Oliver pins him as a ~4.0 win player for the next six years, with an above-average bat and glove. Most impressive are his speed totals—he’s an efficient base stealer, having swiped 28 of 34 in Triple-A Reno, and has posted a .319/.391/.435 Major League Equivalent in the hitter’s league of the minors. He’s knock knock knockin’ on Arizona’s door.
Domonic Brown | Phillies | OF | 1 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .281 / .328 / .427 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: .267 / .334 / .436
It’s easy to label Brown a flameout or flop after a rough double-dip at the major league level. His early defensive returns were atrocious—he lost nearly 11 runs in 91 games per UZR—and he put together a sub-.700 OPS without the power and speed so raved about in the scouting reports. And Triple-A hasn’t welcomed him back this year, as he’s put up a below-average offensive performance in his third go-round at Lehigh Valley. So to everyone, it seems as plain as the sky above; Brown needs a change of scenery. If so, he’s a go.
Jedd Gyorko | Padres | 2B or 3B | 0 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .346 / .391 / .615 (Triple-A)
Oliver ROS: Not applicable.
Gyorko (n.) 1. A shorty, stocky, slow righty who excels at generating power and taking a walk. 2. A top prospect in the Padres system who struggled with generic stats (.262 batting average, six homers) in the Double-A Southern League (a pitcher’s league) and killed it, thus far (1.000+ OPS), in his Triple-A run in the Pacific Coast League (a hitter’s league). 3. A converted third baseman who may be summoned to replace current Padres third baseman Chase Headley, who perhaps will be traded at the July 31 deadline.
Wilton Lopez | Astros | RP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.0 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 2.30 ERA / 0.96 WHIP / 7.1 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.46 ERA / 1.16 WHIP / 6.5 K/9
Lopez regularly posts ridiculous groundball rates and couples it with sparkling 7.00 strikeout to walk ratio this season (three better than his career mark). So, in other words, he possesses the goods to close. Guys like him need to be owned for their prime ratio stats and be held, in tough times, for their save potential— Brett Myers will be shipped out of Houston if it’s the last thing he ever does, and Brandon Lyon, however good he’s been this year, isn’t half the pitcher Wilton Lopez is. He’ll get the opportunity if you're patient, I speculate.
Christian Friedrich | Rockies | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.5 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 5.70 ERA / 1.54 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Oliver ROS: 5.81 ERA / 1.60 WHIP / 6.9 K/9
If Friedrich belonged to another organization—say, the Padres—he’d be a gem. Alas, he does not, and alas, he is not—at least not to fantasy owners. But away from Coors Field, he is employable, as he’s the owner of a 3.79 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, a robust 8.93 strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.56 FIP. In other words, he’s nearly mixed league worthy and a bit unlucky with balls in play. I’ve been pushing him as a platoon-play for weeks now, and the time is as prime as it’ll ever be to pick him up.
Luke Gregerson | Padres | RP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.8 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.32 ERA / 1.15 WHIP / 10.0 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.25 / 1.14 WHIP / 8.6 K/9
Recent rumor out of San Diego is that Huston Street may be tendered a multi-year contract to close for the Friars. It is now, if it was ever not, commonplace wisdom that it’s usually unwise to offer up multi-year deals to relievers, especially those of the brittle variety like Street. But a 1.33 FIP can be tempting, and Street is a good match for a huge park. So the Gregerson recommendation that once seemed natural and somewhat imminent should be taken with a grain of salt. But should the Padres balk from a Street extension, Gregerson, not Dale Thayer, is the man to own.
Todd Frazier | Reds | 3B | 7 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .277 / .343 / .554
Oliver ROS: .249 / .312 / .460
Please, oh please, pick up Todd Frazier on my third or fourth recommendation (if you haven’t already). He’s going to get a hefty dose of playing time between Joey Votto’s freak injury and Scott Rolen’s various non-freak injuries, and he has very legitimate power in a very legitimately power-friendly home park. He’s a true asset who isn’t being utilized in nearly as many leagues as he should, and could be the second-half Waiver Wire MVP.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 4:43am
First, it was Josh Shepardson. Then it was Paul Singman. Now, I'm taking over THT's AL Waiver Wire column, looking at some less notable names lurking on the scrap heap of fantasy baseball leagues the nation over. Entering week 17, here's are a few names that might be overlooked in your league.
Greg Holland | Kansas City Royals | RP | ESPN: 1.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 10 percent ownership
YTD: 3.55 ERA / 1.55 WHIP / 12.8 K/9
Oliver ROS: 3.51 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 10.3 K/9
Let’s play a game of pretend, shall we? Let’s “pretend” the Royals stink, and won’t be much better for the rest of the year. While we’re at it, let’s “pretend” the Royals will be sellers over the next week or so, looking to unload veterans in the hopes of importing younger talent. Quite obviously, you don’t have to be Buster Olney to engage in this scenario when it comes to 28-year-old Jonathan Broxton, already the subject of sustained trade rumors, and, with a balky elbow and a one-year contract, perhaps as sure a player to be traded as any in baseball right now.
Assuming he leaves, that leaves Kansas City with two options in the ninth inning: Aaron Crow and Greg Holland, the same two sleepers who were discussed as possible replacements for Joakim Soria back when the season began. Although Crow has more appearances (43) and holds (12) than Holland, he also has more blown saves (four), two of which have come since Saturday. And if you take away a mediocre April for Holland—during which he was nagged by a rib injury, an ailment that eventually landed him on the DL in the season’s third week—he’s been very good, pitching to the tune of a 1.63 ERA and a 12.69 K/9 since.
Factor in a FIP (2.33) and xFIP (2.89) that’s well below his 3.44 ERA and you have a guy who’s pitched pretty well for a future closer.
Recommendation: Since there might be an opening for the job by the end of the month, Holland is a guy to grab in all AL-only leagues, and, perhaps, some deeper mixed ones as well.
Nick Castellanos | Detroit Tigers | OF | ESPN: 0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 0 percent ownership
YTD: .318/.354/.462 (Double-A)
Oliver ROS: N/A
Meet Castellanos. Former first round pick. No. 44 among Baseball America’s top 100 prospects entering this season. Third baseman turned right fielder by way of some guy named Miguel Cabrera. And now, Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski tells MLive.com, a guy who’s “very close” to breaking into the big leagues.
Pretty much anyone with Castellanos’ hype deserves the moniker of “sleeper,” but before he becomes the next fantasy darling, he’ll have to address some big questions first.
Big question No. 1: How harsh will his major league learning curve be? Let’s remember that this kid is only 20, and has never taken a hack higher than Double-A. Sure, he’s developed into one of the minor leagues’ brighter hitting talents, but one imagines he won’t come out of the gate like gangbusters.
Big question No. 2: Can he secure enough playing time to be a fantasy factor? Currently, Detroit’s right field is occupied by a platoon of Brennan Boesch and Ryan Raburn, which doesn’t sound all that imposing. But Boesch is starting to show signs of life for the first time this year: He’s hammered out a .395/.425/.684 line in July. Plus, Castellanos has been a right-fielder for about as long as Chief Justice John Roberts has been a liberal hero; even Dombrowski had to admit that the defense will be a work in progress over the upcoming months, if not years.
Big question No. 3: What would he bring to fantasy? He doesn’t steal bases—he has just eight over his minor league career—and he hasn’t really hit home runs down on the farm either, chalking up just 16 long balls since entering professional play two years ago. The power will come around, analysts believe, but that might not happen in 2012. Comerica Park won’t really do him any favors as a right-handed hitter, either. It’s also worth noting that while his minor league career strikeout rate is a very reasonable 21.3 percent, his 7.7 percent walk rate (3.4 percent this year) leaves room for improvement.
Still, there’s a lot to like about this kid, and the Tigers are very much in the hunt for the AL Central title. If Dombrowski is already talking about promoting Castellanos, I have to think it’s going to happen before September, and chances are he won’t be called up to Detroit so he can merely sit on the pine.
Recommendation: Castellanos is probably worth a flier in most AL-only leagues right now, though I'd pass on him in mixed leagues until it's clear when he'll be called up and what his role will be.
Zach Britton | Baltimore Orioles | SP | ESPN: 1.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent ownership
YTD: 9.00 ERA / 3.00 WHIP / 2.3 K/9
Oliver ROS: 4.36 ERA / 1.44 WHIP / 5.5 K/9
You remember Britton, of course, part of the vaunted new wave of Orioles pitching that never materialized. But Britton, by and large, has been a victim of bad luck in his two-year major league career thus far: He lost the first half of 2012 due to a shoulder injury, and, while managing to compile a 2.5 FanGraphs WAR campaign in his rookie season last year, still finished with a frustrating 11-11 record and a bloated 4.61 ERA.
But he’s back now, and with Jason Hammel on the shelf and Brian Matusz doing his Brian Matusz thing, Britton, 24, likely has a rotation spot all to himself in Baltimore—assuming he can hold down the job. On Tuesday, Britton made his first start of the year, taking the loss against the lowly Twins in a four inning-plus performance that saw him surrender four earned runs and a disturbing six walks against just one strikeout. But the southpaw will still able to touch 93 on the radar gun, which is an encouraging sign for someone coming off a significant injury.
The Orioles hope that velocity will translate into some strikeouts, since Britton has yet to live up to the potential that made him a nearly strikeout-per-inning pitcher prior to his big league tenure. In nearly 60 minor league innings this year (10 starts), Britton amassed a meh 6.2 K/9 rate, though he was able to keep the home runs and walks in check.
Basically, he looks like a guy who’s (a) still learning how to develop at the major league level, and (b) someone whose full recovery from injury is going to take some more time. For the time being, Britton’s got a full-time job, but he’s yet to establish the low-level consistency he achieved in his 2011 season—let alone the ceiling that once made him one of the most coveted minor league pitchers in the game.
Recommendation: He has a few more starts to make before he can be considered dependable, but you could probably do worse in deeper mixed leagues when it comes to upside among available starting pitching.
Lorenzo Cain | Kansas City Royals | OF | ESPN: 11.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 12 percent ownership
YTD: .324/.342/.559
Oliver ROS: .274/.326/.407
It’s hard to calculate just how far Cain’s stock has fallen since the season began. Consider: After gaining a job following the Melky Cabrera- Jonathan Sanchez trade/highway robbery, Cain, 26, put together a monster spring training, slamming his way to a .371/.450/.743 line with five homers and five steals. But that was before a hip injury destroyed the first half of his season, and before a prospect named Wil Myers decided to devour every Double-A and Triple-A pitcher he could get his hands on. Now, Cain is back, but he’s almost an afterthought in fantasy, perhaps better known as the guy blocking Myers’ path to the majors more than a guy who can contribute on the diamond.
And make no mistake: Cain still has plenty of fantasy value, evidenced by the .289 average he’s flashed since returning to duty last Friday. Manager Ned Yost insists the team will ease him back to full-time duty as he recovers, but Cain’s clearly making a case for himself as an everyday player right now. He’s probably not going to help with home runs or RBIs that much—though he did slam 16 long balls and knock in 81 as recently as last year in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League—but he can help with average and steals, though it’s worth noting he hasn’t yet attempted a steal so far this year (a side effect of his injury, perhaps?).
Obviously, Myers’ name deserves to be attached to any consideration of Cain, since despite Kansas City’s repeated insistence that the phenom will spend the better part of 2012 down on the farm, he’s simply too good to keep out of the big leagues. But with Alex Gordon in left field and Jeff Francoeur in right, Cain is the man who stands to be squeezed out of a job if/when Myers gets the call.
Recommendation: We’ll worry about Myers' impending arrival when it happens. In the meantime, Cain is worth a pickup across the board as he jumps out to his first real stretch of playing time this season.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 4:25am
All stats current through July 19.
Francisco Liriano | Twins | SP | 50 percent Yahoo ownership
YTD: 4.81 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 25.2% K%, 12.7% BB%, 2.0 K/BB
Oliver ROS: 4.06 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 2.2 K/BB
Much like we saw with Javier Vazquez last season, Francisco Liriano is covertly bouncing back to form after an incredibly rough start to the season that saw most fantasy owners abandon hope for him.
If you peek at the surface numbers, Liriano's season still looks pretty ugly in the aggregate. His 4.81 ERA is well below average (the league average this year is 4.15) and only recently dipped below the 5.00 mark. His WHIP (1.40) is not much prettier. He is getting a lot of strikeouts (107 in 97.1 innings), but he has given away almost enough walks to totally offset that fact (54, not including four hit batsmen). And it is not like he has been contributing wins (three on the season) to owners' bottom lines.
But something's happened since the Twins put Liriano back in the rotation—and it may have something to do with his velocity and better mixing of pitches (ignore the increased injury concerns from the greater than 30 percent slider usage for now).
|
FB Velo |
FB% |
SL% |
K% |
K/BB |
ERA |
BAA |
|---|
First Six Starts |
91.9 |
52.4% |
26.0% |
15.9% |
1.11 |
9.45 |
0.346 |
Past Ten Starts |
93.0 |
42.3% |
34.3% |
29.7% |
2.75 |
2.84 |
0.171 |
It has been well established that fastball velocity is highly correlated to a pitcher's strikeout rates, ERA, FIP, and batting averages against. Baseball Time in Arlington found that 91 miles per hour was a significant inflection point in the fastball data; pitchers with fastballs averaging above 91 mph significantly and disproportionately posted stronger ERAs than pitchers with average fastball velocities below 91. Liriano topped the 91 mph threshold only twice in his first six starts.
Look at the above chart comparing Liriano's pre- and post-demotion statistics. His first six and past 10 starts are nearly inverse, with one data set looking like an Orioles pitching prospect and the other like a bona fide ace. Check Liriano's full battery of relevant numbers since returning to the rotation: 63.1 IP, 2.84 ERA, 77 K (30 percent K rate), 2.75 K/BB, 1.04 WHIP, 2.71 FIP. To be sure, Liriano is still walking more than an average number of batters (28 over the past 10 games, for a 10.9 percent walk rate), but it's a much more tolerable rate than his pre-demotion rate (14.4 percent).
A lot of this recent success likely has something to do with the extra tick of gas on his heat and better mixing his two most often thrown pitches. It also does not hurt that Liriano is inducing twice as many swings as misses on his slider now than he was to start the season (his fastball is also getting more swings and misses as well).
Alas, if Liriano's recent string of success and increased velocity was not enough of a reason to believe, let's check in with the xWHIP calculator for more reassuring data:
The xWHIP calculator further confirms that Liriano's past 10 games have been talent-fueled, not luck based. xWHIP pegs Liriano's past 10 starts as good for a slightly sub-3.00 ERA and 1.20 WHIP independent of defensive and park considerations. Some combination of the Twins' above-average defense and Liriano's home park should help his second half resemble that talent line, assuming Liriano continues pitching like he has his past 10 starts. His upped velocity, better mixing of pitches and upped swing-and-miss rate (a possible byproduct of different spin and movement measured on his pitches over his last ten starts compared to his first six) also indicate that Liriano's recent improvement is potentially somewhat sustainable.
I warned fantasy owners to keep a close eye on Liriano, whose spring statistics and spring K/BB ratio were eye-popping (27.0 IP, 2.33 ERA, 33 K, 6.5 K/BB ratio), upon his return to the rotation at the end of May. For those who have not taken the leap yet, it is time to hop on board. With 25 strikeouts in his past 14 innings, the secret of Liriano is likely out of the bag. Shockingly, as of Wednesday, Liriano is still available in 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Half of you need to pick Liriano up immediately. The other half need to trade for him before he totally loses "buy low" status. Liriano is the Javier Vazquez of 2012.
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 2:54am
Thursday, July 19, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Yet another day where the pickings are slim. Wei-Yin Chen and Clay Buchholz have imagined upside but also carry more risk than I find acceptable. Buchholz isn't even cheap in daily leagues.
Pitcher (bum): I don't expect to say this very often, but I really expect the Padres to beat up on Lucas Harrell. I might also bet on the Tigers lineup against Jerome Williams.
Hitter (power): I'm a fan of Todd Frazier against Joe Saunders if he gets enough fastballs to work with. I'm also hoping to see Brandon Moss get to Freddy Garcia.
Hitter (speed): I'm going to pick Will Venable, Michael Saunders, and (of course) Ben Revere.
Tomorrow's grind
One pitcher tomorrow stands out above the rest. I've been very impressed by Marco Estrada this season. He's striking out a ton of hitters while generating plenty of swings and misses and he's walking nobody. Excellent recipe for success. The Reds have a little bit of swing and miss in their bat, so tomorrow's match-up is favorable. He's only eight percent owned, so snag him. I've been holding him in a couple leagues.
You could try Miguel Gonzalez against the Indians. I've yet to see him pitch so all I can say is he has a solid pedigree.
The Red Sox have one outfield slot and DH for two of Ross, Gomez and Nava. I think Ross and Gomez are most likely to start.
I expect the Royals to tee off on Blackburn. Ownership of Perez and Cain should spike very soon.
Jones will be cut loose yet again. Definitely one of the most reliable power streamers.
I expect some TTO outcomes from the match-up between Pena and Iwakuma.
Reliever watch
Santiago Casilla has gone from an iron grip on the closer's role to none. With another blown save on Wednesday—this time in extra innings —Casilla will almost certainly be demoted. Sergio Romo should benefit most, although he seems to require more recovery time than most relievers.
Tyler Clippard earned the save last night but it included two solo home runs. He needs to rattle off another streak of scoreless innings to keep the job away from Drew Storen. Speaking of Storen, he's expected to be activated today.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am
Sell high candidates: starting pitchers
Chris Sale
Owner of a 2.11 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, Chris Sale has been one of the league’s most pleasant surprises this year. Night after night, Sale gives owners quality production, ranking among the top five at his position all season long.
Unfortunately, there’s only so much longer this can continue. The easy money is on his BABIP to regress closer to .300 (I have his BABIP at .3052 going forward, ZIPS has .303) while the bandbox in Chicago pushes his HR/FB back to the 9.0 to 9.5 percent range.
His exceptional peripherals should survive the season intact: going forward I see an 8.144 K/9 and 2.692 BB/9 based on his plate discipline indicators. However, this alone won’t sustain his place among the top five, as he is closer to a top 25 hurler the rest of the way.
If you’re weighing the option of trading Sale, no doubt many potential trade partners will point to the low BABIP (.264) as pretext to decline a trade. Counter by pointing to his xFIP of 3.19 which, though not a stellar 2.11, should ease their nerves on Sale's downside. However, I think his ERA will be in the mid-3s from here on out.
Projection: 3.664 ERA, 1.296 WHIP, 8.144 K/9, 2.692 BB/9, 12.553 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: 0.360 points above average (10-team leagues)
Jered Weaver
Another hurler who I think is likely to see a decline in all meaningful fantasy statistics, Jered Weaver should still be able to rake in a considerable haul. Over the last three seasons, Weaver has established himself among the top starters in fantasy, though it can be argued whether he really belongs there. Coming off his stellar 2010 season when he registered in excess of 9.0 K/9, I would say he belonged in such a discussion. Since then, however, his K-rate has dropped to the mid-sevens and below, removing him from consideration of such accolades. Worse, his current K/9 of 6.68 is thoroughly mediocre.
Perhaps more troubling is his fading comprehension of the strike zone, as his Zone percentage has dropped 1.5 percent. Further complicating matters is his falling O-Swing percentage, down 1.8 percent from last season. Altogether, his plate discipline peripherals point to a walk rate of 3.216 BB/9, not his current level of 2.00 BB/9. For other pitchers, this number could suffice, but for a hurler with a lower K-rate this cannot continue without consequence.
Nevertheless, we shouldn’t write off Weaver so fast. He has somewhat of a Matt Cain quality to him (sustained low BABIP and HR/FB) that makes him difficult to project in many respects. However, most owners I've talked to prefer to own players who can be projected with greater certainty.
That said, I think he can continue his HR/FB magic—I expect an 8.3 HR/FB percentage going forward. However, his BABIP is anyones guess. I estimate a .2911 going forward while ZIPS has a .288. The problem with BABIP projections is that they tend to come with a good amount of volatility. And, in Weaver's case, a considerable amount of his value hinges here. As the projection currently stands, a .2911 BABIP would yield a 3.798 ERA and 1.365 WHIP. However, a .273 BABIP (his career mark) yields a 3.469 ERA and 1.284 WHIP. In essence, this one figure represents the line between fringe #6 hurler and rotation stalwart.
Nevertheless, no matter which way you slice it, Jered Weaver is in for a big turnaround in the wrong direction. Do the decent thing and trade him away to an owner who doesn’t see it coming and reap the rewards of a shrewd, timely deal. And don’t be afraid to ask for a lot—he’s a guy with a long history of results and the name to go with it. He should fetch you an excellent player.
Projection: 3.798 ERA, 1.365 WHIP, 6.617 K/9, 3.188 BB/9, 12.2 Wins/32 GS
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.802 points below average (10-team leagues)
Jordan Zimmermann
I can’t really understand why, but in the last 12-15 months, the fantasy baseball realm has fallen head over heels in love with this guy. Sure, he showed some flashes in 2009 before being struck down for TJ surgery the next season, but since then, his K/9 rate has fallen off the Earth and taken much of his value with it.
So here Zimmermann stands with a 2.48 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 6.19 K/9 and 1.78 BB/9. I like the Ks to improve slightly (to 6.414 K/9) and, to my surprise, I like his already stellar BB/9 to improve as well (to 1.569 BB/9). However, the sum of the parts just doesn’t add up to a 2.48 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, and his value will come crashing down as those figures normalize.
Projection: 3.797 ERA, 1.273 WHIP, 6.414 K/9, 1.569 BB/9, and 11.923 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com value: -1.184 points below average
Johnny Cueto
I have a very hard time looking at Johnny Cueto without seeing a big-time regression. Perhaps more than anyone else on this list, his fantastic ERA (2.28) and WHIP (1.16) is very much a house of cards.
Pitching in the Cincinnati bandbox, his 4.5 HR/FB percentage is very, very unlikely to continue—reflected in his projection of 9.9 percent going forward. His BABIP will probably stay in about the same area (I’ve got him projected at a .2999 BABIP), though a small drop such as 5 points can still have a noticeable affect on his overall line (see: Jered Weaver, but not so drastic).
What really troubles me is what is coming for his K/9 and BB/9 rates. I expect his K/9 to drop by about a full strikeout per nine (6.70 down to 5.709) and his BB/9 to rise over half a walk (2.21 BB/9 to 2.840 BB/9).
Put that all together and Cueto looks practically un-ownable. Deal him as soon as you can, but don’t settle for peanuts. He should still be able to net you a pretty good player.
Projection: 4.065 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 5.709 K/9, 2.840 BB/9, and 12.7 Wins/32 GS.
FantasyPlayerRater.com Value: -3.232 points below average (10-team leagues)
Posted by Mike Silver at 5:06am
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
All stats updated at All-Star break
Pitchers to target
Cliff Lee
On the surface, Lee has been a colossal disappointment, with only one win and a 3.98 ERA to show for his 100 or so innings. Fear not, though, as the same Cliff Lee that’s always been exists in Philadelphia.
Sure, he rode a coaster of Phine Phortune to a 2.40 ERA last year (or more specifically, he road an 81.4 left-on-base percentage). But Lee’s groundball rates and control are consistent with his 2011 numbers, and his 3.00 FIP indicates better things to come. Some owners who doled out a fat sum to acquire Lee, like yours truly, have suffered through the uncharacteristic inconsistency and are reasonably frustrated.
Full disclosure: I looked into the trade market for the guy with the 10th-best FIP and fourth-best strikeout-to-walk ratio in the land and was almost tempted into jumping off the Cliff, so to speak. That would be self-mutilation (selling his best days short while suffering through his worst) and I don’t promote that. Buy the man, as he’ll be among the top five pitchers in the waning months of the season.
~Nick Fleder
Adam Wainwright
Adam Wainwright has not had the best first half for fantasy owners in his return from Tommy John surgery. Despite a respectable seven wins on the season, his ERA (4.56) and WHIP (1.35) are well off the league average (4.17 and 1.31, respectively), and his average fastball velocity is the lowest it’s been since he became a full-time starter in 2008. For all the negatives on the surface, however, there are ample encouraging signs for a strong second half.
Pitchers tend to have plenty of rust in their first few months back from Tommy John, but Wainwright has looked pretty sharp. His control is still as pinpoint as ever (6.6 percent walk rate, 6.8 percent career and 8.1 percent major league average) while his strikeout stuff, unlike Jordan Zimmermann's, is still there (22.3 percent this year, 20.2 percent career and 19.6 percent major leagie average). Even though Wainwright is leaning on the curveball and slider less than ever before, he is inducing a career high clip of ground balls (51.8 percent, 49.4 percent career).
Furthermore, Wainwright’s 2012 velocity (90.0 mph) is not too far off his career average fastball velocity (90.5 mph). Since June 1, Wainwright has a 41:9 K/BB ratio over his past 37.2 innings. Wainwright's 3.08 xFIP, 3.33 FIP and 3.29 SIERA promise great things for those willing to buy low.
~Jeff Gross
James Shields
James Shields is an enigma. He does not walk anyone and has struck out over eight batters per nine each of the past three seasons. Yet, despite posting an xFIP of 3.55 or lower in each of the past three campaigns, Shield’s brilliant 2.82 ERA last season has been bookended by ERAs of 5.18 and 4.17. His problem has always been the gopher ball. The major league average home run-per-fly ball rate has historically been around 10-11 percent, but Shields' 2010 and 2012 rates clocked in at 13.8 percent and 14.0 percent, respectively.
A lot of his 2011 success arguably could be the result of an increased groundball rate. After two disappointing season from 2009-2010 with career-low groundball rates, Shields upped the worm burn to 46.2 percent. His homer-to-fly ball ratio remained on the higher end of the league average at 11.1 percent, but fewer fly balls meant fewer overall home runs. That, paired with a stingy groundball rate, allowed him to beat out his peripherals last season to post a career year.
This season has seen Shields continue to struggle with poor home run luck on his fly balls (14.0 percent), but his groundball rate is a career high by a mile (53.8 percent). Shields' strikeout rate has fallen off a bit since the beginning of June, but he is still racking up 50 percent-plus groundball outings with even stingier walk rates.
Assuming the trend continues, expect his ERA to better resemble his xFIP and SIERA (3.44/3.45) in the second half. Whereas Max Scherzer’s inconsistency makes him a medium-risk, high-reward second-half play, I’d peg Shields as a lower-risk, almost-as-high-reward, stud-capable starter to pry away from an impatient owner.
~Jeff Gross
James Shields
Jeff has already touched on Shields at length, so I'll keep it short. All of his components say he's the same pitcher as last year. While last season's .258 BABIP against was certainly lucky, this year's rate of .335 is unlucky. He's also stranding fewer than 70 percent of base runners. Unlike in 2010, he's not suffering a case of gopheritis. See if his owner is fed up with him.
~Brad Johnson
Pitchers to avoid
Jeremy Hellickson
Behind the mask of a respectable 3.41 ERA (11 percent better than league average), Hellickson is having a miserable season. FanGraphs has him pinned as a sub-replacement level pitcher, and while Baseball Reference and THT’s Oliver valuations are, respectively, kinder (in that order), I’m apt to go with the first reading. The silver lining in his smoke-and-mirrors, red-flags-abound Rookie of the Year campaign last summer was his swinging strike rate, which has faded to mere respectability where it was once elite.
In fact, Hellickson is spinning four-below average pitches (per FanGraphs pitch values) and is generating far fewer swings in the zone when he even hits the zone (which, of course, is also occurring at a lower rate). The control remains suspect—his 1.60 strikeout to walk ratio, three hundredths lower than last year’s mark, will drop few jaws—and the home runs are crawling over the fence this year at a higher rate.
One of these days, one would suppose, Hellickson’s above-average strand-rate will fall—even though it’s consistently hovered around 82 percent, the Rays defense hasn’t always been below average per UZR—and so, too, will the dominoes that keep him owned in 73 percent of Yahoo! leagues.
~Nick Fleder
R.A. Dickey
There's not much analysis to this. It's not that I don't believe in Dickey's breakout first half. I don't even expect a ton of regression in the second half. It's just that I refuse to buy high on a pitcher who lacks a UCL in his elbow. And the corollary to that is that I'd be happy to sell high.
If you own Dickey, don't force a trade just because I'm worried half of his arm is going to detach. But if someone offers you good value, especially in keeper leagues where his age might be forgotten, I'd urge you to take it. Likewise, if you have the chance to acquire Dickey and you're not paying out the nose, it could make sense to take the risk.
~ Brad Johnson
Hitters to target
Anthony Rizzo
Call me a homer all you want. Anthony Rizzo is going to bash 15 home runs in the second half and hit close to .280 doing it. If you are in a keeper league, as I am, you need to pay a premium for this slugger.
Since his breakout with the Red Sox in 2010, Rizzo has shown a good ability to make contact for power. His strikeout rate in the minor leagues is just over 20 percent, which is miniscule for a player with a raw power score in upper 70s on the 20-80 scale. It does not hurt, either, that Rizzo has shown the ability to take a walk, although he is sporting just a two percent walk rate through his first 12 major league games.
Rizzo’s big weakness in the past has been his splits against lefties, but he held his own against them in the minors this year, and two of his four major league home runs have been against lefties this season, including one against the reincarnation of vintage Johan Santana.
Oliver's MLEs for Rizzo this year peg a cumulative expected .315/.364/.625 triple-slash line with 25 homers over 310 at-bats. Oliver further forecasts Rizzo as a legit 30-plus home run hitter annually over the next six seasons with a respectable .270 bating average. Given that Rizzo is only 23 years old and starting to figure out lefties, I would take the over on that batting average.
~Jeff Gross
Ben Zobrist
Since his breakout season in 2009, Zobrist has offered fantasy owners five-category production at myriad positions. His perceived value is down yet again with a batting average that is teetering on the brink of painful. He's no longer eligible at half a dozen positions, but he can still man second base or right field. A glance at his 5x5 stats might cause you to wrinkle your nose, but a closer examination reveals reason for optimism. His season BABIP is just .266. He's hitting slightly more line drives than in the past and isn't hitting more infield flies than usual.
With that in mind, a BABIP below his career .284 mark seems likely to bounce back. He's also walking more than striking out, which has a lot to do with his reduced swinging-strike rate (5.5 percent 2012, 6.3 percent career) and he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone than the past two seasons. I'm predicting roughly 45 runs, 10 home runs, 40 RBI, 10 steals, and a .270 batting average over the rest of the season.
~ Brad Johnson
Wil Myers
In a major league season whose “young 'un” news has been dominated by the promotions and successes of top prospects Bryce Harper, Mike Trout and Anthony Rizzo, the resurgence of the Royals’ Wil Myers has been an under-the-radar story. After an injury-plagued season of disappointment in 2011, a seemingly healthy Myers has picked up where he left off in 2010.
After batting .343/.415/.731 with 13 home runs in 36 games at Double-A this year, Myers was promoted to Triple-A, and he has not stopped hitting. Through his first 50 games in the PCL, Myers is batting a robust .315/.395/.636 with 14 home runs.
Though only 22 years old, Myers has shown a veteran’s ability to command the strike zone with a career minor league walk rate of 13.5 percent and a strikeout rate right around 20 percent (strong for a slugger). Harper’s always gotten the bulk of the media hype as the up-and-coming young superstar catcher-turned-outfielder, but Myers is no slouch. Oliver pegs his combined Double-A and Triple-A MLE on the season at a very strong .282/.347/.575.
With Royals outfielders hitting a combined .253/.319/.368 and posting a cumulative +1.9 WAR (the worst mark in the majors), Myers might force the hands of the struggling Royals in the second half to serve him an extended cup of coffee. If so, you will want to pounce immediately. Players in deeper leagues would be advised pull the trigger early. You will be hard pressed to find a guy with Myers' upside on the waiver wire in the second half.
~Jeff Gross
Chase Headley
Blessed with supreme talent and cursed with an unforgiving hellhole of a home to hit in, Headley’s been wrongly labeled as a middle-of-the-pack talent. In reality, he possesses 20/20 potential, hunky walk rates, and elite defense. His All-Star caliber potential is being well wasted in an ugly home park and in a last-place, going-nowhere-since-April organization in full-fledged rebuilding mode.
That is precisely why he makes for a perfect second-half breakout candidate. Throw out his home games in Headley’s career, and you have the following batting line: .299/.366/.445. This year, he’s hitting a homer every 25 or so at-bats on the road, which would make for a tasty 24 over a full 600 at-bat season.
The Padres represent one of the few sure-fire sales corps in the major leagues this deadline, and Headley’s a valuable chip who won’t realize his full value in San Diego. I’m giddy at the thought of young Headley in a Pirates uni (with Pedro Alvarez moving to first base, however far-fetched the idea is). Good storyline, meet good storyline.
~Nick Fleder
Hitters to avoid
Josh Hamilton
How does one sell "high" on one of the major leagues' most fearsome hitters of the past few years when he is hitting .308/.380/.635 with more home runs in the first half (27 over 79 games) than he hit all of last year (25 over 121 games)?
Well, for one thing, since May 13 (the end of “the week that was”), Hamilton has hit .238/.327/.465 (.792 OPS) with nine home runs over 47 games (199 plate appearances). He is always an injury risk; despite being on pace to play over 150 games this year , he has played more than 133 in a season only once (2008). Furthermore, in the first half of the season, he has already likely done more than you expected him to do all season.
Do not get greedy. Ship him off for a better, more consistent player like Carlos Gonzalez or a long-term keeper like Mike Trout before anyone else notices he hasn’t been as good over the past 50 days as his full-season numbers indicate.
~Jeff Gross
Alex Rios
Rios has been bouncing between fantasy stalwart and black sheep for several seasons now. While there's no reason to say that Rios will definitely fall apart in the second half, I'm very skeptical he can continue to be a five-category monster. Much of Rios' success this season rides on a career-high 23.2 percent line drive rate. I'm not sure I believe that is anywhere close to sustainable. He's posted rates of 16.4, 16.9, and 18.4 over the previous three seasons.
The good news is that Rios also is swinging and missing at a career-low rate of 5.1 percent. That's a number I'm more willing to believe in, and it's an indication that a subtle change MAY have been made that could also account for the line drive rate. Still, I'd happily bet on Rios not being a top-100 player in the second half.
~Brad Johnson
Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:04am
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): For those that use FanDuel, I've noticed that Jeremy Hellickson seems cheap relative to his ability. Bruce Chen could be interesting for daily leaguers too. More traditional fantasy owners would be best served to skip a day of streaming, although I suppose Clayton Richard is usable.
Pitcher (bum): Tyler Thornburg and Jeremy Guthrie strike me as match-ups that can be abused today. I'll be looking to get Andrew McCutchen and a number of Red Birds in play.
Hitter (power): Andruw Jones had a big day yesterday and will start again today. Luke Scott, Carlos Pena, and Carlos Quentin are alternatives.
Hitter (speed): Jemile Weeks should get a shot to reach base and swipe a bag against Colby Lewis, but we'll see.
Tomorrow's grind
Some notes worth discussing before the table.
I have no idea how the usage patterns for Daniel Nava, Ryan Sweeney and Cody Ross are going to work out now that Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford are back. With David Ortiz banged up, two of the three should get into the lineup for the next week.
I don't know how the Chris Heisey- Ryan Ludwick platoon works. Similarly, it's tough to tell when Scott Rolen or Todd Frazier is going to start.
I'm going to continue to recommend these players and leave it up to you to decide if it's worth the risk that they don't play.
Wei-Yin Chen is my pitcher of choice today. Otherwise, you could roll the dice with Clay Buchholz. He looked like he was turning a corner prior to injury.
For five-category production, I like the idea of Michael Saunders against Luke Hochevar. Keep in mind that Hochevar has been crisp recently.
Look for Jim Thome to pound a couple hits against Cole De Vries.
Will Venable will get a chance to swipe some bags against Lucas Harrell.
Reliever watch
John Axford has officially lost his title as closer. Francisco Rodriguez's peripherals are down to the point where's he's merely a solid option at closer. Axford needs to get the walks under control before returning to the role.
Tyler Clippard blew his first save just in time for Drew Storen's return. Everyone loves a good controversy.
Now Bobby Parnell is blowing saves for the Mets. I said a lot of bad things about this Mets roster prior to the season, but they could have been a relevant team with a good closer. Too bad.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 4:56am
Tuesday, July 17, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): He's owned for fantasy purposes, but I like the prospect of Matt Moore against a somewhat lefty-heavy Indians lineup. While his numbers against lefties have been poor this season, it's a 21.2-inning sample and the only thing out of sorts is his strikeout rate.
Jonathon Niese, Ross Detwiler and Travis Wood are all perfectly acceptable streaming options.
Pitcher (bum): Could the Yankees form the much dreaded Bugs Bunny Conga Line against Brett Cecil? Might the Red Sox match the Yankees fervor against Philip Humber?
Hitter (power): Andruw Jones is known to be particularly lethal to mediocre lefties like Cecil. There are plenty of alternatives in the power department tomorrow like Scott Hairston, Jim Thome, Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, and Tyler Moore.
Hitter (speed): Besides the usual suspects, I see Tony Campana and Cameron Maybin as nice stolen base picks.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): I'm hard-pressed to pick an available starter today. You could try Clayton Richards against the Astros, but only if you're forced to. For daily leaguers, someone like Jordan Zimmermann against the Mets might make sense.
Pitcher (bum): Plenty of bum pitchers tomorrow, but who will get hit hardest? I'd try stacking Cardinals against Tyler Thornburg. Keep in mind that Carlos Beltran is expected to sit a couple games during this series. Jeremy Guthrie is going against the Pirates at Coors.
Hitter (power): My favorite platoon power hitter, Andruw Jones, should be back in the lineup tomorrow. Luke Scott and Carlos Quentin are nice alternatives.
Hitter (speed): I'm going to call a steal from Jemile Weeks just for some variety. Otherwise, look for the usual suspects.
Reliever watch
John Axford blew another save last night, leading some to call for Francisco Rodriguez to step in. I think Axford has just a little bit more wiggle room left but it's probably time to pick up alternatives.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am
Last week, I discussed some stud starters likely to be traded and the implications a trade could have on their fantasy value. This week I’d like to address position players from the same perspective. There seems to be less consensus on which position players are likely to be traded, and the overall crop is weaker than the top-heavy group of starting pitcher trade candidates. Therefore, I’m going to switch up the format a bit and go for more of a quick-hitter approach, covering more players in less depth.
Justin Upton
Upton is the best bat considered to be available. Arizona boasts a homer-friendly park and Upton has been surprisingly average on the road throughout his career, sporting a pedestrian .740 career road OPS —a stark contrast from his .924 home mark. Still there are a few considerations to mitigate the seemingly open-and-shut case. First, his road games are heavily weighted by the NL West, three-quarters of which (excluding the D-backs) play in strong pitcher’s parks. Second, it appears that a change of scenery probably couldn’t hurt right now. There are situations that would up Upton’s value, though on paper his current spot is better than most. The bigger question remains whether Justin Upton will resume being Justin Upton… for any team
Shane Victorino
It’s not certain that the Phillies are going to shop the Flyin’ Hawaiian. Rumor has it that the Yankees are interested, though. Were Victorino to land on the Yankees, we’d be looking at a top-50 player. He’d basically be Caveman-era Johnny Damon. Word is the asking price is high, and Victorino doesn’t make peanuts now, so it’s likely that if he goes anywhere, it would be to a pretty good situation with a good amount of premium talent also in place. The Philly lineup isn’t doing anything for him now. Getting out would most likely help.
B.J. Upton
Upton the elder has always been difficult to figure, and I don’t foresee a significant change in value if he’s traded. He’s still likely to be a well-rounded player who gives you gives you solid three-category production, borderline elite speed, and is a bit of a batting average drain.
Josh Willingham
Surprisingly enough, I like him where he is. Word in the offseason was the Twins pursued him (instead of retaining Michael Cuddyer or Jason Kubel) because they thought his swing was a great fit for their park. They look like geniuses right now.
While Willingham could move into a better lineup, it’s unlikely he’d hit in the heart of the order were he traded to a really strong team, and it’s unlikely his situation would improve much, lineup wise, were he traded to a team that needs him in the heart of its order. I wouldn’t be overly excited about fixing what’s clearly not broken.
Chase Headley
Headley is a potential 20-20 player with legitimate on-base skills who is trapped in an awful lineup, home park and division. He is one of the players who could benefit most from a trade. And, to cap it off, he seems reasonably likely to be traded. If you like to speculate, maybe a lowball offer for him in a deeper league would be a good idea.
Carlos Quentin
My overall opinion on Headley applies to Quentin as well, just a bit less so. Quentin is a bigger injury risk. He’s less likely to be traded. His value is more fixed to one category. All that said, getting out of San Diego would be a major step up for him, presuming health.
Denard Span
Span is a bit of a tricky case. He could help a lot of teams, but if acquired his role could be anything from starting number two hitter to platoon player, depending on where he goes. If he goes to the right spot, he could be standard mixed league relevant as a fifth outfielder. It’s not worth speculating on it, though, as the returns aren’t high enough to warrant placing a bet.
Juan Pierre
The possible outcomes for Pierre are similar to that of Span. However, unless he goes to the Orioles, I don’t see Pierre playing a prominent role in a new destination. I’d be shopping Pierre to teams in need of speed. I also don’t trust him to maintain a plus-.300 average.
Ty Wigginton
If you could use what he was doing before the return of Ryan Howard, grab him. He’s likely to resume doing that in a different jersey.
Bryan LaHair
LaHair gave us a taste of his power before Anthony Rizzo came on to steal his thunder. I think the Cubs bungled this situation and sapped much of LaHair’s trade value. At the very worst, he’s a platoon masher. I could see LaHair finding a job and emerging as deeper league relevant again.
Jason Giambi
I know this sounds like a crazy name, but he still has power and on-base skills. I doubt he can play first base anymore, but if he were to fall into a DH role, deeper and AL-only leaguers might stumble into one of the best potential power sources on a barren waiver wire.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:37am
SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT
Lone Ranger vs. Greene County Giants
ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE PAT VISKER MEMORIAL BASEBALL LEAGUE
Decided July 4, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 110 (July 2012)
Factual Background
A rotisserie fantasy baseball league named the Pat Visker Memorial Baseball League (hereinafter referred to as “PVMBL”) that is hosted on CBSSports.com seeks an evaluation of a trade made between two teams. This is a fourteen-team mixed NL/AL keeper league that utilized a snake draft. Teams are required to retain seven players each season and all keepers can be retained indefinitely.
As with many rotisserie leagues, the PVMBL uses most of the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins minus losses; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the PVMBL.
Procedural History
The Lone Ranger (hereinafter referred to as “LR”) has made a trade with the Green County Giants (hereinafter referred to as “GCG”). LR traded Jose Reyes (SS-MIA), Josh Beckett (SP-BOS), and Wilin Rosario (C-COL) to GCG in exchange for Chris Sale (SP-CHW), J.J. Hardy (SS-BAL), and Derek Norris (C-OAK).
A member of the PVMBL has requested that the Court review this trade and determine whether it should be approved.
Issue Presented
(1) Should the trade between the Lone Ranger and the Greene County Giants be upheld and approved?
Decision
The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money to participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).
It is well documented that there is a different analysis of trades in a keeper league as opposed to a non-keeper league. A trade that may look facially uneven or lopsided could easily pass muster in a keeper league. Trades made between teams in a keeper league need to be analyzed by other factors besides merely comparing statistics. Grave Diggers vs. Chilidogs, 4 F.J. 5, 8 (January 2012). These other factors include salary cap flexibility, contractual status of players, and long-term planning at the expense of the current season. Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010); Winners vs. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011) (holding that team owners in keeper leagues with no hope of contending in the current season must make critical roster management decisions of whether to trade established players to help build for the future).
The Court will evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. Victoria’s Secret vs. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010). The Court will not undermine a fantasy owner’s ability to manage his/her team unless a deal is unfair or inequitable, rife with collusion, or not in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is objectively intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. 4 Ponies vs. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. Carson City Cocks vs. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).
No evidence has been submitted indicating any alleged collusion or malfeasance. As such, the Court will operate on the presumption that there is no collusive conduct between the parties.
At first glance, the trade of Jose Reyes, Josh Beckett and Wilin Rosario in exchange for J.J. Hardy, Chris Sale and Derek Norris looks slightly uneven. Reyes is regarded as an elite fantasy shortstop, so we must ensure that proper value is being offered in return for a player of such magnitude. See Steelers vs. Patriots, 3 F.J. 216, 220 (November 2011) (holding that elite players included in trades require additional scrutiny merely because of how valuable they are in terms of name recognition and reputation). Sale has had a terrific first half of 2012 and could be on his way to becoming an elite pitcher, but he is not quite at that level just yet.
The following chart represents a statistical comparison between the six players in the relevant roto categories through games played on July 3, 2012:
Player AVG HR RBI Runs SB
Jose Reyes 0.272 3 21 41 19
Wilin Rosario 0.247 14 36 29 3
J.J. Hardy 0.234 12 32 39 0
Derek Norris 0.333 2 6 5 1
Player Wins ERA K WHIP Saves
Josh Beckett 4 4.06 60 1.15 0
Chris Sale 10 2.19 98 0.97 0
As can be seen from this comparison, the hitters’ collective statistics lean heavily in favor of the package being obtained by GCG. While Hardy has better homerun and RBI totals, Reyes is markedly better in batting average and stolen bases. Reyes will also likely eclipse Hardy in runs scored by the end of the season. In addition, Rosario is light years ahead of Norris at this point. Even with Ramon Hernandez set to return from the disabled list in the foreseeable future, Rosario has earned the playing time and should still see a majority of the at bats. However, Norris was just recently called up and could be in line for more playing time if Oakland does indeed trade Kurt Suzuki or they tire of his lack of performance.
However, Sale represents an upgrade over Beckett who just recently came off the disabled list. Sale has emerged as one of the American League’s top starting pitchers and zoomed past Beckett in every significant category. Beckett has always been susceptible to injury and has also clashed with Red Sox management and the fan base this season. It is safe to say that Sale is well beyond the value of Beckett as of right now.
When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). Here, this trade involves the swap of a catcher, shortstop and starting pitcher. Clearly, positional needs did not factor into the decision-making behind this trade.
GCG is currently in 4th place and is setting their sights on improving for this season. There is no question that Reyes and Rosario are significant upgrades at their respective positions. The tradeoff is swapping Sale for Beckett which does represent a downgrade on his pitching staff. This could have a negative impact on GCG because he just lost C.C. Sabathia to injury, Ricky Romero has been horrendous, and ace Stephen Strasburg could be limited in his innings and outings going forward. In the scope of analyzing the trade, there are discernible benefits and risks for GCG in making this trade.
On the other hand, LR is in 11th place and 50 points out of 1st place. They are trading away established players in exchange for a package of players that does not appear to have equivalent present-day value. This is symbolic of a team in a keeper league looking to build for the future. See Moneyball vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 67, 68 (May 2012) (upholding the 4 Ponies’ trade of Hanley Ramirez for a package of younger and less expensive talent as part of building for future seasons). It is indisputable that Sale has more value than Beckett, so that will help LR in both the short and long-term.
However, Hardy is an average, aging shortstop with good power but lacks production in all other categories. Additionally, Norris is a nice prospect that Oakland acquired in the Gio Gonzalez trade with the Washington Nationals. But Norris only has 30 at bats under his belt and still may not see regular playing time until some point next season, depending on what the As do with incumbent Kurt Suzuki,
When a team owner in a keeper league no longer believes he has any hope for contending in the current season, he must make a critical roster management decision of whether to trade off established players in exchange for unknown entities in building for the future. Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. at 102. This is precisely what LR has done in acquiring players like Sale, Hardy and Norris who do have some current value as well.
A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011). This trade benefits GCG in their pursuit of success in the current season. The trade also provides LR with a couple players to build around for the immediate future, as well as a shortstop who can hit 30 home runs which may have solid trade value later in the year.
The dichotomy between LR and GCG’s motivations is precisely why the Court must look at trades in keeper leagues differently than non-keeper leagues. Smittydogs v. Moneyball, 1 F.J. at 34. However, had this trade been made in a non-keeper league, the Court could possibly reject it.
Here, a trade was proposed and agreed to between two teams with differing priorities. While the two packages are not completely equitable in terms of present-day value, the trade has discernible benefits for both parties without any specter of collusion. Based on the foregoing reasons, the trade should be approved as it was made in good faith and within the best interests of the league.
IT IS SO ORDERED.
Posted by Michael Stein at 4:32am
Monday, July 16, 2012
If you somehow landed here without seeing today's picks, you can find them here.
Tomorrow's Grind
TBA appears to be busy tomorrow.
The unsponsored picks for tomorrow include:
Pitcher (to start): He's owned for fantasy purposes, but I like the prospect of Matt Moore against a somewhat lefty heavy Indians lineup. Jon Niese, Ross Detwiler and Travis Wood are all perfectly acceptable streaming options.
Pitcher (bum): Could the Yankees form the much dreaded Bugs Bunny Conga Line against Brett Cecil? Might the Red Sox match the Yankees fervor against Philip Humber?
Hitter (power): The ghost of Andruw Jones is known to be particularly lethal to mediocre lefties like Cecil. Plenty of alternatives in the power department tomorrow like Scott Hairston, Jim Thome, Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, and Tyler Moore.
Hitter (speed): Besides the usual suspects, I see Tony Campana and Cameron Maybin as nice stolen base picks.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 4:09pm
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Have I mentioned I'm a little slow in the morning?
I accidentally made the table for today instead of tomorrow, which is fine since we had no handy table to refer to for today. I don't have time to make two, so I'll post tomorrow's table tonight.
I also tried to introduce a new table layout to make it less long, but that didn't really work out. And I forgot to do @ again.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): There's all kinds of ugly pitching today, which means that there are several risky picks with upside. Personally, I'm a fan of J.A. Happ going against an ineffective Padres lineup at Petco. Chris Tillman is more than deserving of an honorary shout out.
Pitcher (bum): It's easy to pick out today's bums but it's hard to do something with that information. Dylan Axelrod faces the Red Sox and Ervin Santana draws the Tigers. Both offensive clubs have the kind of pricey talent that makes it harder to play a team match-up.
Hitter (power): I'm going to put my money down on Travis Hafner against Alex Cobb tonight. Carlos Quentin against J.A. Happ is a fair second choice.
Hitter (speed): There are three names that are going to show up here a LOT: Rajai Davis, Ben Revere and Juan Pierre. Use any and all of them today.
Additional notes: I've lost a handle on the Red Sox outfield situation. I think Daniel Nava and Ryan Sweeney will start tonight over Cody Ross, but that's a barely educated guess. The Reds tend to platoon Chris Heisey and Ryan Ludwick in a difficult-to-predict deployment. So I left both on the chart.
Tomorrow's grind
I'll post this in the early evening.
Reliever watch
Heath Bell has been temporarily removed from the closer role. Steve Cishek stands to benefit the most, especially with Edward Mujica on the disabled list. Meanwhile, Juan Carlos Oviedo (Leo Nunez in a past life) has elbow pain and will be out indefinitely.
Sergio Santos is officially done for the year with the decision to schedule season-ending surgery.
Jim Johnson blew an ugly one on Saturday, but his job is safe for the time being. Besides, the Orioles won the game.
Here's a fun one. The Padres stole home off Kenley Jansen to hand him his fourth blown save.
Alexi Casilla's job is in jeopardy after a run of poor performances. Sergio Romo would replace him but it's been hard to track when he's available over the past season and a half. Stay tuned.
There was a smattering of other blown saves over the weekend, but we have to stop somewhere, right?
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:05am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Although he never had the highest ceiling, Dillon Gee was turning into a nice success story for the Mets in 2012 as he helped anchor a spot in the back end of the team’s rotation. But a blood clot in his shoulder could relegate his contributions to nothing more than a warm memory going forward, as he could be done for the season following surgery.
Miguel Batista will take over fifth-starter responsibilities for Gee, though fantasy owners are hoping the Mets pull the trigger on 23-year-old Matt Harvey, who’s posted nearly 10 K/9 in his minor league career and entered the season as one of the team’s best prospects. It was unclear Sunday night whether the team would use Harvey for an upcoming start this weekend, as the Mets seem lukewarm on rushing him. He’s pitched decently at Triple-A this year (7-4, 3.39 ERA, 1.312 WHIP) and could be worth picking up right now in deeper mixed leagues.
• Speaking of terrific 2012 success stories, Jason Hammel had emerged as Baltimore’s ace this season, posting a career-high 8.7 K/9 and a nearly 3.0 FanGraphs WAR. Unfortunately, a knee injury suffered during his start on Friday will lead to surgery and could keep him out until September. Brian Matusz had been floated as a possible replacement for Hammel, but it looks like Zach Britton will make his first start of the season on Tuesday after missing the first half with a shoulder injury. Britton’s talent alone makes him worth a flier in deeper leagues, and he pitched well in nearly 60 innings this year.
• Drew Smyly landed on the DL for the second time this season after he suffered a strained intercostal muscle. Phenom Jacob Turner, 21, will return to the majors for the second time this season to spot him on Tuesday. He earned a no-decision in his one start earlier this year against the Cardinals when he pitched five innings and allowed one earned run on five walks and three strikeouts.
• It’s been a nightmare season for Sergio Santos, and he’s now received word befitting such a horrible campaign: He’ll undergo season-ending elbow surgery, knocking him out of action until at least spring training 2013. At this point, that news couldn’t really matter less to fantasy owners, who have long learned to recognize Casey Janssen as Toronto's ninth-inning fireman.
• Houston shortstop Jed Lowrie landed on the DL with an ankle injury after getting into a collision at second base on Saturday. He’ll be replaced by fantasy nobody Marwin Gonzalez until he gets back.
Other bumps and bruises
• Gavin Floyd will probably miss his upcoming start with elbow tendinitis. If he’s not available, look for rookie left-hander Jose Quintana (4-1, 2.60 ERA, 1.075 WHIP in 62.1 innings) to take the ball on Wednesday.
• An oblique strain forced Ian Desmond out of the lineup on Sunday, and it seems likely he’ll miss a few more games to start week 16. Danny Espinosa will take over at shortstop in the All-Star’s absence, while Steve Lombardozzi will see at-bats at second base.
• Chad Billingsley was scratched from Sunday’s start with elbow pain and is scheduled to undergo a MRI, which sure doesn’t sound good. It was unclear Sunday who would take over for Billingsley assuming he won’t be able to make this week’s start, but one way or another, steer clear of the burly right-hander in anything resembling a fantasy baseball league this week.
• Jack Wilson sprained a finger in his right hand, which could cost him some playing time, if not a DL stint.
• A blister bumped Johnny Cueto from Sunday to Tuesday.
Road to recovery
• Welcome back, Lance Berkman, things weren’t the same without you. Things, however, have changed since you were gone, since Allen Craig, when healthy, has been a significant producer while splitting time at first base and the outfield. With both Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday enjoying solid seasons, Berkman’s role is not immediately clear, though if he’s healthy, someone is going to have to make room for the Big Puma.
• Look out, world: Roy Halladay is slated to return on Tuesday against Los Angeles. When we last met one of this era’s most dominant starting pitchers in late May, he was suffering from a strained right lat muscle, which probably explained why the 35-year-old was enduring, at least by his standards, one of his most mediocre seasons in recent memory (4-5, 3.98 ERA, sub-7.0 K/9). But he is Halladay, and although the Dodgers are re-armed with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier back in action, he’s worth starting across the board as he gears up for the season’s second half.
• Carl Crawford is scheduled to return to action on Monday after suffering an elbow injury that zapped the first half of the season. With Jacoby Ellsbury back in the lineup after a similarly long absence, at-bats could be split between Ryan Sweeney and Daniel Nava, though Sweeney is dealing with a tender hamstring, so Nava could stay in the lineup this week.
• For at least the time being, Ben Sheets is back among the living/fantasy relevant, which on Sunday translated to six scoreless innings against the Mets to pick up a win. His return sent Randall Delgado back to the minor leagues.
• Joe Saunders returned to action over the weekend after dealing with a left shoulder strain. His return knocked Patrick Corbin to Triple-A and demoted Josh Collmenter from the rotation to the bullpen.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:07am
Friday, July 13, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Already we have some changes between yesterday and today. Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday's table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): I'd shell out some money on Clayton Kershaw against the Padres today as the "cheap" pitchers aren't out there or have bad match-ups. You could consider Christian Friedrich against the Phillies.
Pitcher (bum): I just have a feeling that the Blue Jays are going to squeeze the fun out of Justin Masterson tonight.
Hitter (power): Adam Lind against Justin Masterson. Lind has been warm since returning to the show and Masterson is known to have a bit of a weakness for left-handed power hitters. Second choice is Jonny Gomes against Francisco Liriano. That's a TTO highlight reel in the making.
Hitter (speed): David Murphy against Kevin Millwood. Millwood seems to nut up when I pick against him, but that trend has to end eventually, right? Murphy's a great pick in that he does a little bit of everything. Second choice is Ben Revere against A.J. Griffin.
Tomorrow's grind
It's another day with scant pitching options.
Joe Saunders is coming off the disabled list for a friendly match-up with the Cubs, but I'd hardly be keen to pick him up.
If you have the cojones, Clay Buchholz is also returning from the disabled list. We've seen two versions of Buchholz this year, one that is good and one that is utterly devastating to fantasy rosters.
Tommy Milone against the Twins is yet another non-perfect option. He's the one I'd go with in a pinch.
If you're looking for power, Moore has a good match-up against the always crafty Buerhle. I also like the Smith versus De Vries match-up and might take another look at Lind for a second straight day.
Pierre has a great match-up against Guthrie, but the funny thing about Pierre-type players is they're almost match-up neutral. He'll put the ball in play against anyone and it either sees its way through the infield or it doesn't. The usual suspects—Revere and Davis—are available too.
Notes on the project
Positions WILL make it into the table at some point. I've marked it as a low priority fix since I think most of you have a general sense as to everyone's eligibility.
I forgot the @ to mark home or away today but I will work that in next week.
Consider yesterday's results officially dropped.
If you haven't guessed it, we're sponsored by Fanduel. I like the site a lot—it's intuitive and fun.
This feels to me like the general look and feel I'd like to settle on. Thoughts?
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:54am
Thursday, July 12, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
Match-ups are rated from the hitter's perspective on a one to five scale with one being a weak match-up and five being an excellent match-up.
Today's grind
My intention is to for this section is to link back to the previous day's table.
I also plan to provide Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day.
Tomorrow's grind
This being the first day back from break, the pickings at pitcher are pretty thin as most clubs have opted to go with one of their best. The only guy I'd test the water with is Christian Friedrich against the Phillies.
Let's say the table is still in experimental phase. How much of this information do you think is unnecessary? What information would you like to see that isn't here?
The 1/5 match-ups that I presented are all those who have some form of platoon advantage and/or are very likely to start. Perhaps there is a better way to present this information
Reliever watch
Everyone's getting excited about Juan Carlos Oviedo, but I'm not sure I see any reason to. He's no better than Steve Cishek and is likely worse. Then again, he could find himself a handful of saves anyway.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:02am
Wednesday, July 11, 2012
In horse racing, swimming, track, and car racing alike, the winners aren't necessarily apparent in the beginning. Perhaps they save their energy for later, like Jason Lezak did here in his anchor leg of the historic Men's 4 x 100 Freestyle final in Beijing in the 2008 Olympic Games. A horse may stumble coming out of the gates and gallop to victory by a nose. A Usain Bolt-like figure may need 50 meters to calibrate and conquer. A racer may only best the field in the final lap.
And while baseball is no racing sport, sometimes it's helpful to think of it in such a context; it's a slow, crawling race. In both the standings found on (insert stat service of choice here).com and those posted on the Green Monster at Fenway Park, all that matters is one's location on the final day.
The same applies to a single player—do you care what he was hitting in mid-April, or mid-June for that matter? So long as you're starting them and playing in a roto league, players are the sum total of their stats; all the 0-fers and all the four-hit days (and everything in-between), totaled and averaged.
With that in mind, one should recognize the possible distortions of small sample size. Just because Aramis Ramirez struggled mightily in April (where he hit .214) doesn't mean his .273 batting mark is a high-water mark, or that he's destined for mediocrity all year. Just because Carlos Gonzalez is on pace for 33 homers, 112 runs batted in and 21 steals doesn't mean he won't up the pace. And just because Ian Kennedy was expected to regress heavily doesn't mean he won't improve on his 4.26 ERA. Look for the chance to buy these three and more, presented below.
Main targets
Carlos Gonzalez
Let's start with one of the more obvious answers to the question, "Who would I most like on my fantasy roster in the second half?". Before we dismiss the notion that one shouldn't buy Gonzalez because he's sure to falter from his .334 batting mark and 120/30/110/20 pace, let's look at the historical splits for the face of the Rockies. Gonzalez totaled only 84 at-bats in the first half of 2009 and logged a fatter 194 after the All-Star Game. The splits were profound:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 27 94 84 11 17 4 2 1 5 5 0 9 25 .202 .280 .333 .613 28 .276 43 64
2nd Half 62 223 194 42 62 10 5 12 24 11 4 19 45 .320 .384 .608 .992 118 .357 125 160
Sure, sure. Small sample size. The 2010 season, though, brought Gonzalez's breakout, though not in full until the second half of the season:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 77 347 325 56 102 12 4 17 60 12 5 16 76 .314 .346 .532 .878 173 .360 81 136
2nd Half 68 289 262 55 95 22 5 17 57 14 3 24 59 .363 .412 .679 1.091 178 .413 123 198
And 2011 confirmed a trend, whether it's because Gonzalez enjoys his days off, felt motivated by All-Star snubs, had extra time to work with the hitting coach and self assess, or loves the heat. Whatever it is, behold:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+ sOPS+
1st Half 86 359 318 55 93 18 3 13 51 14 4 33 72 .292 .359 .491 .850 156 .336 92 138
2nd Half 41 183 163 37 49 9 0 13 41 6 1 15 33 .301 .372 .595 .967 97 .305 116 161
Granted, Gonzalez has never found as much success in the first half as he has in 2012. The balls are falling in play at what figures, to the naked eye, to be an unsustainable rate. That said, his approach at the plate (and specifically his strikeout-to-walk ratio) is far better than it was in 2010, when he posted a .336 average and sported a .384 BABIP (which is a tad lower than his mark now).
Oddly, Gonzalez is making less contact when he swings (which happens less than ever before) and isn't making as much contact outside the zone as in previous years. So, as crazy as this sounds, Gonzalez could be headed for a .350 average.
Aramis Ramirez
We'll keep it more simple with Ramirez. No story necessary, just a lot of raw numbers taken over his career (12-plus years of service time). Here are the splits:
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB BAbip tOPS+
1st Half 963 4022 3636 493 1008 227 13 160 612 10 9 295 572 .277 .337 .479 .816 1741 .288 94
2nd Half 796 3264 2949 426 859 173 8 165 561 8 7 235 428 .291 .349 .523 .872 1543 .290 107 (sOPS+ is not available for the entirety of Ramirez's career, so that stat has been omitted.)
Despite playing in 167 more games in the first half than in the second , Ramirez has hit 160 homers in that total span; on the other hand, he's hit 165 dingers in his aggregate second half. His .291 average in the late-July to September bests his .277 mark for all games earlier. His second-half slugging percentage of .523 is better than the .479 mark he's put up in the first half over his career.
Slugging the ball more? More runs batted in, one would assume. More batting average and homers? It's self-explanatory how that'll help your fantasy roster. Ramirez has hardly been sexy this season, so you may be able to pry him out of his owner's hands for cents on the dollar. It would be a smart move.
Ian Kennedy
Welcome our first pitcher on this list. Kennedy's splits are strong and consistent. Everything gets better, from the strikeout rate to the ERA to WHIP to the home run rate—everything. Behold:
Split W L W-L% ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 19 20 .487 4.25 63 62 1 2 0 385.0 371 192 182 49 124 4 327 21 1645 1.286 7.6 2.64
2nd Half 18 5 .783 2.81 33 32 0 0 0 198.1 161 65 62 14 61 0 177 7 810 1.119 8.0 2.90
Objectively, Kennedy's been unlucky this year. His home run rate is in line with his career mark, but at .326 his BABIP is far above his .280 career mark. Despite a marked improvement in his control (his walk rate is under two per nine!), he's simply giving up more hits. Luck will turn around, and turn around sharply. Kennedy is due to shine in the second half, as per usual.
Hiroki Kuroda
The fifth-year Japanese import is succeeding against the odds, which are, in no particular order, old age, a nightmarish home ballpark, a declining ability to pound the strike zone, and diminishing velocity. Kuroda has made the necessary adjustments, though. He's throwing more sliders, generating more grounders (last year's tumble in groundball rate spelled concern for some) and is still stranding runners at an above-average rate. (Last year's success seemed like a mirage partly because of his too-high left-on-base percentage.)
So while luck may be unkind to Kuroda in the second half, his career trend says he might find his groove and beat the Baseball Gods.
Split W L W-L% ERA G GS CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BF WHIP SO/9 SO/BB
1st Half 29 35 .453 3.59 79 78 2 2 0 484.0 472 221 193 49 132 17 348 11 2038 1.248 6.5 2.64
2nd Half 20 18 .526 3.26 53 53 0 0 0 323.0 299 133 117 28 63 13 258 10 1321 1.121 7.2 4.10
Kuroda seems to harness his control in the second half historically, which would bode well in keeping his ERA at it's current mark in the mid-threes. He generates more double-play balls while operating with the same exact BABIP, meaning Kuroda's pitching ability seems to actually improve without the help of luck. He makes for a perfect mid-level pitcher to target.
Bigger names
In no particular order, here is a mish-mash of ten names who are probably owned in your league but can be expected to improve on some stats from hereon out.
1) Cole Hamels: The prodigious lefty won't be had at a discount in any functioning league, but he's absolutely aces in the second half. His ERA is better by 0.43 and his WHIP by 0.07. Worthy gains.
2) Clayton Kershaw: Ditto for the 2011 Cy Young winner. He's regressed closer to 2010 levels but soon may find his ERA and WHIP lower. (He has a 3.12/2.53 split for the former, 1.18/1.13 for the latter.)
3) Tommy Hanson: Struggling but might soon find his control. His first half totals feature a 2.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio; his second half, meanwhile, features a 3.27 mark.
4) Wandy Rodriguez: Finds his strikeout groove in the second half (8.3 K/9 bests his 7.0 mark pre-break). Modest improvements in ratio stats, too.
5) Max Scherzer: Seems to benefit from luck (a BABIP 20 points lower) and should similarly see a BABIP turnaround from the current, ridiculous .359 mark. WHIP will look much, much better.
6) Adrian Gonzalez: Slugs more, homers at a higher rate. Invest now and you'll be buying very low; luck turns plus historically hot trends in the hot months? Perfect target.
7) Troy Tulowitzki: More career homers in the second half, and a .321 batting mark compared to a .267 mark in pre-All Star games. Buy now while insisting that he's brittle. Then remind yourself that he is brittle.
8) Delmon Young: May salvage draft-day promises, as he hits far more homers in the second half (44) than in the first (35) and will likely enter on his hottest streak of hitting yet this year.
9) Mike Napoli: Really disappointing season for Napoli coming off an unquestionable career year. May find cozy home in late-summer months: his .907 second-half OPS is hotter than his .831 pre-ASB mark.
10) Jeff Francoeur: Sees modest second-half power boosts a la Napoli; OPS is ~80 points and batting average ~25 points better. Owners need to hold onto some hope; it's clearly worth doing.
Waiver turnarounds
In no particular order, here are five names worth adding off the waiver wire for their historic second-half success.
1) Cliff Pennington: His OPS is nearly 100 points better second half, and he steals more bases, hits more homers. A .264 second-half average is bearable, whereas his current .202 mark is not.
2) Will Venable: Seems to harness power in hot weather and enjoys modest boosts in his batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging marks.
3) Randy Wolf: Already covered in waiver wire column, but over the last three years, his second half ERA is 3.47 and his WHIP is 1.19. Key to improvement is lower walk rate.
4) J.A. Happ: Thanks to the ground ball (particularly the double play), Happ proves respectable in the later months (3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 marks). Worth streaming at least.
5) Juan Rivera: Improvement across the board, as in batting average, both parts of OPS, home run rate—even steal percentage. Dual eligibility helps add value and .292 batting average nothing to scoff at.
Posted by Nick Fleder at 5:02am
Tuesday, July 10, 2012
During last night’s Red Sox-Yankees telecast, ESPN flashed a graphic featuring the top five pitchers it considered likely to be traded before this season’s deadline. Plainly, the team for which a player plays can have a considerable impact on his value and production. Depending on the situation, a player may have nowhere to go but up or down in just about any trade scenario.
In other cases, a wider range of performance-related outcomes may be in play. If you can correctly anticipate a trade (or non-trade) and its effects on a player, you can get in front of the value shift (or perceived value shift) and tilt the market in your favor. So, today I’ll offer my thoughts on the five pitchers noted in last night’s broadcast and on whether I anticipate their surrounding situation to improve from a fantasy perspective.
Cole Hamels
Of all the pitchers in this column, I think Hamels’ value should be impact the least by any trade rumor and would suffer the least impact on his value if traded.
First of all, I’m not so sure Hamels will be traded at all, despite the tone of the talk surrounding him. Whether the Phillies are in contention seems like it should be irrelevant; Cole Hamels is not their problem. It would be shortsighted to move Hamels for that reason. In fact, I’m not sure if the Phillies consider themselves a non-contender. I don’t think we’ve heard the last of this pseudo-dynasty. However, if the team is certain they’ll be unable to resign him and they are still floundering in a few weeks, they may decide to cash in what they can get.
Cole Hamels is such a terrific pitcher that he should be a fantasy ace no matter where he goes. It’s unlikely he could go to a worse ballpark. The one thing I’d be wary of, though, is that the Phillies might be reticent to allow a pitcher that good to stay in the NL.
Obviously, it’s preferable for him to stay in the senior circuit from a fantasy perspective (unless you are in an AL-only league). He’s also due a big pay date, so most likely only teams who think they could sign him would be involved. Some potential landing spots could be Los Angeles (NL). St Louis, or a moneyed AL franchise. The Dodgers are rumored to be the frontrunner, and that would be an excellent spot for him, as he’d benefit from a weak division and favorable ballpark. The Dodgers can't score runs, but the Phillies haven’t been able to either and that hasn’t mattered to Hamels.
Zack Greinke
Zack Greinke loves him some home cooking. Greinke has yet to lose a game at home as a Brewer, flossing a 15-0 record with 177 Ks in 144.2 innings. Some are inclined to look at the Brewers' record and presume that Greinke would benefit from a trade. I’m not so sure the odds are in his favor. Greinke seems interested in testing the free agency waters regardless, so if teams see him as a rental and it reflects in Milwaukee’s asking price, more teams could be in play.
It’s doubtful he moves within the division, so that means he’s got a 50 percent chance of going to a stronger division if he stays in the NL. If he goes to the AL, that’s a step back because it always is. He could land in a good park, but he’s never pitched better in any place than he has in Miller Park. Overall I don’t think that the odds are in favor of him going to a better situation for pitchers.
Further, the Brewers are not a poor offensive team. They are fifth in the National League in runs scored and fourth in OPS. At 9-3, the Brewers are certainly a good enough team when they have Greinke on the mound.
I’m of the opinion that Greinke is underrated in the first place. So, I’m not sure there’s much opportunity here. Normally, I’d say this is a chance to trade player because there’s a perceived a chance he’ll be better, but I don’t think he will be. But, since I don’t think Greinke is accurately valued initially, I’m not sure such an opportunity will present itself.
James Shields
I think a lot of folks would be surprised if Shields is traded because the Rays are a playoff contender. Yet, I would not be surprised to see him move. I feel this way for a number of reasons.
One, the Rays are crazy (and by crazy I mean wise, which is crazy within the sphere of pro baseball operations) and innovative enough to make the right long term move regardless of the immediate impact.
Two, Shields is the first starting pitcher age 30 or older in the Rays rotation in several years. They clearly have a philosophy and spending model that favors young pitching and a method of continuing to stock their organization with it.
Three, while he’s middling a bit this year, Shields is coming off his best season of his career, and his value could be elevated. He may essentially be closer to ’12 Shields, but ’11 Shields is still going factor into other teams’ perceptions of him, as will the idea that he’s “clutch” because the media stole James Worthy’s nickname and assigned it to him.
Four, the Rays can’t afford to re-sign him and compensation picks for players leaving via free agency have gotten worse. So, the might want to start a bidding war and consider that the best haul they’ll get for him.
Regardless, getting out of the AL East can only help matters. Sure, he loses the support of a really good offensive team, but if he moves to the NL, he gets a significant value jump. I could see him winding up with the Cardinals, actually, given that Hamels would demand top dollar in the off-season and the other three pitchers in this column are in the NL Central (as is Wandy Rodriguez who didn’t make this column but is another name that will float around in trade talks). NL West, plus best offensive support in the league? That sounds good.
Ryan Dempster and Matt Garza
Remember how I said that for some players things could only get better? Getting out of Chicago is unlikely to worsen the fates of Garza or Dempster. Even if either went to the AL East, he’d have an increased chance at winning games.
Wrigley Field is no pitchers' picnic, and that entire team, save for Starlin Castro, Anthony Rizzo, and possibly Jeff Samardzija, will be for sale as well. So, things are bad in Chicago and about to get worse… unless there’s a schedule re-write that allows them to play my Mets everyday. Then they’re world beaters!
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 5:32am
Monday, July 09, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Giancarlo Stanton won’t make the All-Star Game after undergoing knee surgery last week, which will cost him up to the next six weeks. Emilio Bonifacio, who’s scheduled to return after the break, will help plug the Marlins’ outfield.
• Dan Haren hadn’t missed a start since 2005, but lower back stiffness has forced the 31-year-old to the disabled list earlier this week. The Angels’ rotation is already short, with Jerome Williams dealing with respiratory issues and Ervin Santana still having problems on the mound, but left-hander Brad Mills picked up a win Sunday with five scoreless innings against the Orioles. Mills, 27, has had an undistinguished career thus far, but he’s probably bought himself at least another couple of starts given the lack of manpower in the team’s starting pitching.
• The good news for Andrew Cashner is that his latest injury, a strained lower lat muscle, doesn’t involve his elbow or his shoulder, meaning the oft-injured 25-year-old will be back this season. The bad news is we might not see him for at least a month, as it’s the same injury that cost Huston Street a similar amount of time earlier this year. The Padres’ rotation has been gutted by injuries this year, so Ross Ohlendorf could pick up some starts now that Cashner is down.
• A torn thumb ligament will deny fantasy owners Dee Gordon’s stolen base production for the next month and a half after the 24-year-old hurt himself sliding into third base. Shortstop replacements could include Luis Cruz, Elian Herrera, Jerry Hairston Jr. and Juan Uribe, though none of these players offers much in the way of fantasy value.
• Speaking of injured Dodgers, in the end, Andre Ethier’s strained rib cage muscle was indeed enough to land him on the disabled list. The move was retroactive to late June, so it’s possible he could be back by the end of the week.
• Here’s a phrase that’s gotten a lot of use over the past few years: Brian Roberts is headed back to the disabled list, this time for a right hip labral tear. It’s not yet clear whether Roberts will require surgery, but assuming he does, it’s important to remember that the same injury cost Alex Rodriguez roughly two months back in 2009.
• Alex Presley landed on the seven-day concussion DL after trying to make a diving catch last week. The soon-to-be 27-year-old was turning things aorund in an otherwise disappointing 2012 season, so hopefully he can return this week and continue contributing to the Pirates’ surprising run.
Other bumps and bruises
• Jesus Montero missed the weekend after suffering a minor concussion due to a foul ball taken off his face mask earlier last week. It doesn’t sound like a huge deal, but it could be enough to sideline him in the break-shortened week 15, so keep an eye on his condition.
• Johan Santana won’t start this week after getting his ankle stepped on by Reed Johnson while covering first base during his last start.
• Andrelton Simmons left Sunday’s game after fracturing the pinkie of his right hand. It’s not yet clear whether he’ll require surgery, but it sounds like he could miss some time with the injury.
• Hanley Ramirez left Sunday’s action after suffering a right finger laceration.
Minor developments
• After a promising start to the season, Orioles’ right-hander Jake Arrieta was sent down after a parade of ugly starts and chronic control problems. Chris Tillman, following an excellent start against the Mariners last week, was also demoted to the minor leagues, but that’s so he can pick up another start during the All-Star break. Expect Tillman to be back at the major league level within a matter of days.
• Now that the Marlins have received Carlos Lee in exchange for a couple of minor-leaguers, struggling Gaby Sanchez is a very expendable commodity, evidenced by his second demotion to the minors over the past month. With first base now occupied, Sanchez could very well be traded in the upcoming weeks, which might not be the worst outcome for his fantasy viability, especially since he did make the All-Star team last season.
• Hector Noesi was sent down to the minors last week after posting a 2-11 record with a 5.77 ERA over 17 starts.
Road to recovery
• Matt Kemp advanced to Triple-A for his rehab over the weekend and is expected to lead the National League as captain during the Home Run Derby tonight. But after a series of setbacks from what’s mutated into a two-and-a-half month hamstring strain, the Dodgers will likely be extremely careful with their superstar as they ease him back into the lineup this week.
• Ryan Dempster posted five scoreless innings against the Mets on Sunday, his first start since June 15 after experiencing a tight back. His return sent Chris Volstad to Triple-A.
• Ryan Howard made his 2012 season debut Friday after suffering a ruptured Achilles’ tendon last October, and Roy Halladay could rejoin the Phillies in week 16; he’s scheduled to make a rehab start on Thursday.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:08am
The All-Star break offers a nice opportunity to reflect on the first half and make changes. Let's cover anything and everything worth discussing over the next few days.
I think the general format thus far has been satisfactory, but often leaves much to be desired. I plan to turn my daily hitter recommendations into a more detailed grid. Pitcher recommendations will remain the same since only a few are made per day.
While it would be awesome to add tons of content, I have only 30-40 minutes to write this column each morning. It will be interesting to see if maintaining the hitter grid gives me more or less time to work with. If I were to drop a section, should it be "Reliever Watch" or "Yesterday's Results?"
One major change I plan to implement is to cut the content from today and tomorrow to only tomorrow. If you are in a same-day transaction league, simply reference the column from the previous day.
Below I have included a sample of the hitting grid with only AL East teams. What do you think? I will probably also add a column for opposing pitcher, but that might be too much to update on a daily basis.
If this change proves too difficult to maintain, I will revert to the previous format.
Good luck down the stretch.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 3:07am
Friday, July 06, 2012
Pitching gems
A.J. Burnett (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 10 percent Yahoo!, 1 percent ESPN)
As an avid Yankees fan, I suffered through several years of A.J. Burnett's antics: blow-ups, media awkwardness, ugly tattoos and fat globules of dip spit. He carried a bad attitude, it seemed, but at times, his performance left me with more pity than anger. The guy was not fit to pitch under the scrutiny of the New York press, no matter how tough and fearless his outward appearance made him seem.
Still, I knew the man was talented—why else would he have commanded such a fat contract from Brian Cashman—and was quick to recommend him in February as a worthy dollar end-gamer. After all, he'd gotten unlucky and mentally unstable (as far as this fan could tell) in New York, but his talent still existed in a vacuum: as I wrote, "Bad luck in several forms—BABIP in 2010 and home run rate in 2011—has kept Burnett in the fantasy dumpster, but I’ll bet my final dollar he returns to respectability (or better)."
Sure enough, Burnett's turned around his fortunes, and his walk rate has dipped along with his home run rate. Surprising even to me is his wins total (nine), which nearly matches his 11 last year with the hard-hitting boys from New York. I'm guilty of dropping Burnett in at least one league after his 12-earned run-implosion on May 2, but I commend owners who were stronger than I. I wouldn't expect 18 wins for Burnett, but he's already more than carry his weight.
Clayton Richard (recommended Week 7, when his ownership was 2 percent Yahoo!, 0.3 percent ESPN)
Play the splits. I've been saying it for a while; when you have a pitcher or hitter who has glaring platoon splits (whether home/away, LHP/RHP, day/night), why not play them? The adage holds true especially for Padres. Don't believe me? See Cameron Maybin in 2011, when he posted a .618 OPS at home compared to a lustier .806 on the road.
And while Clayton Richard is just one man, his PETCO numbers over his career (3.27 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) will play in any league. This year's been no different, as Richard's 2.91 ERA at PETCO is elite and his 1.12 WHIP isn't far behind. He's managed to stay respectable on the road, too, and his June numbers were otherworldly for a waiver-wire pickup: 2.21 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 3.43 strikeout to walk ratio. I have no problem with owners riding the rest of Richard's hot streak, and while he, like any league average pitcher, is prone to blowups, he's always worth a start at his cavernous home ballpark.
Michael Fiers (recommended Week 8, when his ownership was 0.0 percent Yahoo!, 0.2 percent ESPN)
Yes, please, and thank you. Fiers is 26 and has gone generally unheralded through the Brewers system; he was hardly the first name that came to mind when injury replacements were being considered in Milwaukee (remember Willy Peralta?). And while I was wrong in suggesting Fiers' stint would be a short one, anyone who listened is reaping the benefits. Most recently, Fiers twirled a 10-strikeout gem against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks, and while his flyball tendencies might turn out to haunt him (he has yet to feel the wrath, surrendering only two home runs), even a league average home run rate (adjusted to 10.5 percent) has him at a 3.26 xFIP.
We won't degrade the special thing he has going so far too much, but he has stranded far too many runners and could be in for a Lance Lynn-like correction. Even so, if you've been starting Fiers, you've gotten some value out of him. Yes, yes. I love you, too.
Andrew Cashner (recommended Week 9, when his ownership was 4 percent Yahoo!, 0.8 percent ESPN)
Maybe this is tainted a bit in light of Cashner's injury (which will cost him at least three weeks), but I think this was a keen suggestion. For every 10 mediocre, mid-level pitchers who thrive at PETCO, there comes along one rare top-flight talent. Rarely, in other words, do budding stars get to chance to pitch in pitcher's heaven. And while the most recent ultra-talent to come out of San Diego ( Mat Latos, since departed) suffered through growing pains in his first year, Cashner had three weeks to show the talent he has to absolutely dominate in the NL West. His strikeout rate is flat-out elite (at 11+, it can safely be expected to drop; still, it'll remain in the top percentile of starters), he throws the ball with much force (averages 98.6 on his fastball, though he'll likely tone that down as he or the organization tries to save his arm), and he generates a ton of ground-balls (a 50+ percent career mark is impressive).
All this is to say that Cashner has the makings of an elite pitcher (one who's injury prone, as he'll often remind you), and you picked him up off the Waiver Wire (if you listened). So follow my directions and stash hom on your DL spot. Please.
Chris Young (recommended Week 10, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo!, 0.1 percent ESPN)
I understand why people do it, but it doesn't forgive. Chris Young gets no love because Chris Young is always injured, but the fact that Chris Young is always injured doesn't mean that Chris Young isn't good. You follow?
Look, I get that he's started eight games in the years of 2010 and 2011, and that's precisely why he ended up on the Waiver Wire to begin the year. But Young owns a 1.21 career WHIP, and has put together a 1.00 mark in the previous two seasons. This year? Things are looking up, until the inevitable injury bug strikes. As I write this, Young is pitching a fine tune against the Philadelphia Phillies (though exploding in the seventh inning), and has compiled excellent ratio stats. So what I'm saying is what you should've known all along: grab Chris Young when he's healthy, and run when he goes on the DL with his annual injury.
Jason Marquis (recommended Week 10, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo!, 0.1 percent ESPN)
Rarely does one with a 8.47 ERA warrant a pickup. Marquis seemed like an exception. I won't gush too much more about PETCO Park, but for pete's sake, it turned Jason Marquis into a pitcher with this triple-slash: 3.49 ERA / 3.07 FIP / 3.12 xFIP. That's over 32 innings, which is a reliable enough sample for me. His home-run rate is plenty high still, and he's even struggling against the factors of nature (a high BABIP and low LOB percentage). It is Jason Marquis/So this is crazy/But I would trade for him/Seriously? Maybe...
Pitching duds
Chris Schwinden (recommended Week 3, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo!, 0.0 percent ESPN)
I pegged Schwinden as a "match-up and splits play" because of his struggles with ratio stats, but he failed to even provide that value. In fact, if you picked him up, you probably had two tumultuous days that you can directly blame on me. I apologize profusely. Schwinden doesn't have the stuff for The Show, at least not at this juncture. He doesn't have pinpoint control and served up four bean balls in nearly nine innings along with 15 hits while managing only a single strikeout, meaning his stuff was entirely hittable. For every Fiers (an unknown prospect with mixed showings in the pedigree or minor-league performance departments), there's a Schwinden, and for every Schwinden, there's a Fiers.
Juan Nicasio (recommended Week 3, when his ownership was 7 percent Yahoo!, 1.4 percent ESPN)
Lady Luck hasn't been kind to Nicasio, which is disappointing when you consider how well he's pitched. To wit: his fWAR/200 innings of 3.44 is better than those of Edwin Jackson, Dan Haren, Mat Latos and Matt Moore, to name a few. Still, a fat ERA upwards of 5.00 and a WHIP similarly ugly haven't helped anyone, and his 54 strikeouts are hardly a silver lining.
Perhaps there's a lesson in dealing with Colorado pitchers (if Dan O'Dowd can re-think his rotation radically because of his unforgiving home park, we can restructure our approach as fantasy players, no?): Don't start them at home... ever (or avoid the headache and don't draft them). In Nicasio's case, he gave up six homers at Coors Field and posted an inflated, stomach-churning 7.24 ERA. That won't fly.
Christian Friedrich (recommended Week 5, when his ownership was 2 percent Yahoo!, 1.3 percent ESPN)
Different name, same story. Good looking young pitcher is tossed around in the tornado that is Coors Field. Friedrich's home/away split is even worse, as he posted a 9.62 ERA and six homers at home while he's posted a 2.75 mark with only four dingers allowed on the road. Another lesson, this one less extreme and in line with my sunny-day thinking: why not platoon these talented, strikeout-tossing Colorado products? If you're smarter than me, you've already pulled a Clayton Richard, as they, too, can be platoon-worthy without a sexy home park. Liken Friedrich to an ugly, vulnerable monster at Coors and a top prospect on the road, and grant me a reprieve for my recommendation.
Nathan Eovaldi (recommended Week 8, when his ownership was 2 percent Yahoo!, 0.8 percent ESPN)
When I recommended Eovaldi as a "worthy add in most NL-only leagues," I forgot he wasn't a very talented pitcher. Home parks can't save those with little talent, and somehow I looked past the fact that the youngster has never posted a walk rate south of 3.38 at any level prior to this year's 3.07 mark in the majors. Some can escape with those numbers, but they need a strikeout rate upwards of 4.61 to survive. And to spite me further, Eovaldi hasn't even picked up a win, which have made duds like Friedrich bearable. I'd have no hesitation dropping him if you haven't already; he's not looking at a big turnaround until his skill set develops or he gracefully falls into a swingman role.
Randy Wolf (recommended Week 11, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo!, 2.3 percent ESPN)
This call hasn't played long enough to be safely labeled a dud, as I did write with some caution: "Randy Wolf’s not a very good pitcher, but he’s excelled in the second half over the last year three years." Still, in his last three starts (the only one since I posted Week 11's Waiver Wire on June 22), he's surrendered 18 runs, 17 earned, along with 23 hits. But not so quick: his 16/3 strikeout to walk ratio over his past two starts has Wolf's stock pointing up!
I'm only half-kidding, which is the scary part. I seriously do think a good portion of his numbers scream "Crappy luck!" but perhaps I reek of bias. Okay, fine. Drop him. But if he has a killer second half, can I say I told you so?
Hitting gems
Tony Campana (recommended Week 3, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo!, 1.2 percent ESPN)
I wrote this of Campana in the late April column: "He’ll be worth several weeks of Dee Gordon-like production at the very least, which amounts to game-changing potential considering the category at hand here. Buy now, worry later."
Several weeks, it turned out, amounted to several months, and though Anthony Rizzo has rained on Campana's barbecue, and though Campana's been pretty much worthless as a starting outfield option in the game of baseball, he's been an absolute boon to fantasy rosters. Get this: He's nearly matched the speedy Gordon's speed totals in nearly half the playing time, a testament to Campana's scrappiness, Dale Sveum's willingness to let his players loose, and my foresight and incredible brains.
All kidding aside, Campana's done his job, and as for the worrying part? I'd trade him if I can, dump him if not. Chances are that you're doing all right in the speed department if you picked up half a century's worth of steals on the waiver wire.
Garrett Jones (recommended Week 4, when his ownership was 4 percent Yahoo!, 1.1 percent ESPN)
Jones has always been good for power, and this year's been no different: since May 4, Jones has hit nine homers. June, in particular, was kind to him, as he hit .300. All in all, he's been a top 15 fantasy first baseman, a fine standing for a waiver find (and for someone with a 3.9 percent walk rate; and for someone who can't hit lefties... at all). He's flawed, but the numbers are better for Jones than they are for Mike Napoli (for example).
A.J. Ellis (recommended Week 4, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo!, 0.7 percent ESPN)
Thank you for being a credit to society, A.J. Ellis. I wasn't exactly early on you: Your new-found on-base skills and high average were a trend that had been set for weeks at that point. Still, if my friends jumped, they got a fine May (.333 average, a basket of home runs) and an uglier June (.222, a lonely home run), which amounts to a pretty good mark for a catcher overall. Your batting mark right now: .276.
What I said: "The keen eye at the plate helps support Ellis’ plus batting average, which should hover around .275 when all is said and done." I'd keep him on rosters for his plus batting average and on-base ability. There's something to be said about backstops who take the field day in and day out: You've has impressed me in that and in your raw numbers, A.J. Kudos.
Everth Cabrera (recommended Week 6, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo!, 0.0 percent ESPN)
Recommended before his first at-bat this year, Cabrera's totaled 15 steals and 16 runs. It worries me that he's struggling again with his strikeouts, but his willingness to take the walk has me thinking his 2012 campaign is more like his successful rookie year (.255 average, 25 steals, 59 runs in 103 games) than his sophomore slump (.208 average, 10 steals, 22 runs in 76 games). The Padres don't score runs, which is a bummer, but Cabrera could find himself starting at shortstop for the remainder of the year. A worthy return to glory for the minor-league standout who once stole 73 bases in Single-A ball. Run, Everth, run.
Norichika Aoki (recommended Week 9, when his ownership was 1 percent Yahoo!, 0.1 percent ESPN)
It took him a couple of months to carve out a full-time gig in Milwaukee, but the Japanese import has lived up to his reputation as an impressive hitter (he won three batting titles in his home country). He's gone .292 with speed and some power, and best of all are his month-by-month splits: .304 in April, .301 in May .272 in June and .400 in 10 July at-bats going into Wednesday. Consistency is hard to come by, and chances are you found this consistency on the waiver wire.
Todd Frazier (recommended Week 7, when his ownership was 2 percent Yahoo!, 0.4 percent ESPN)
Apparently, people forgot how old Scott Rolen was (he went for $10 in two NL-only leagues that I know of), and forgot that Todd Frazier was a heralded, if not seasoned, prospect in the Reds system. They happily shipped Juan Francisco out of town to clear the way for Frazier as the "backup" to the brittle Rolen, and he's responded with his trademark power. He's up to eight homers in 55 games, which translates to a glossy 24 in a full season. An even happier surprise is the batting average, which is inflated at .273 and can be safely expected to fall.
I applaud you if you picked up Frazier, and I'd happily hug you if you snagged him in a keeper league. He'll get 500 at-bats next year, I'm confident, and the projection systems love him. For that, I love him too.
Andrelton Simmons (recommended Week 8, when his ownership was 2 percent Yahoo!, 0.8 percent ESPN)
The most talented defensive shortstop in the league has exceeded all expectations at the dish, posting a not-so-ridiculously-fueled-by-luck .323/.364/.495 triple-slash (with a bonus of three homers, half his total from his minor-league career). He should be expected to run more than he has (he's 1-for-1 in stolen base opportunities) and he has the job locked up.
Hitting duds
J.D. Martinez (recommended Week 1, when his ownership was 37 percent Yahoo!, 31 percent ESPN)
He hardly qualified as a wire find in my inaugural column, but that notwithstanding, Martinez still managed to disappoint. Big time. The balls haven't fallen for Martinez at the same clip, thanks to his line-drive rate that tumbled from the vicinity of league-best (27+ percent last year) to its current, ugly rate (~16 percent). Aside from hitting far too many balls into the ground, he's made strides as a hitter (walk rate has nearly doubled, for instance), and the power is turning out to be legitimate (he'll challenge for 20 this year if the playing time remains), but that's hardly encouraging for fantasy owners.
I was too optimistic, and perhaps I'm being too pessimistic now: Martinez is still a fantasy asset. But he's far more flawed than I gave him credit for.
Brian Bogusevic (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 1 percent Yahoo!, 0 percent ESPN)
Seeing a trend here? Two recommendations of Astros, two failures. To be fair, Bougesevic was pimped as a counting stats guy, and he hath provided (six homers and nine steals). But the batting average hasn't helped anyone. Not much to see here—his speed is cheap, though.
Taylor Green (recommended Week 5, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo!, 0.0 percent ESPN)
He killed it in Triple-A last year and seemed primed for a time-share in Milwaukee, between the injury histories of Aramis Ramirez and Rickie Weeks and the ineffectiveness of Alex Gonzalez. No such luck. He's managed twice as many at-bats (81) as games played (40), and he's pinch-hit in 18 games, which may go a long way in explaining his .637 OPS. No one's mistaking him for Paul Molitor, but it seems ludicrous to me that the Brewers are rolling with Cody Ransom at shortstop (when Green has some minor-league seasoning at the position) and Weeks (below replacement level! terrible defensive readings!) at second.
John Mayberry Jr. (recommended
Week 6, when his ownership was 5 percent Yahoo!, 2.8 percent ESPN)
Mayberry, too, may be a victim of circumstance (or Charlie Manuel) to an extent: He's been relegated to pinch-hitting duties 18 times, been passed over for playing time for the likes of Laynce Nix and Ty Wigginton incessantly (despite the promise of Manuel, circa spring training this year, that Mayberry would see full-time at-bats).
But despite my whines, it's hard to see how Mayberry has earned time this year: Was his performance to blame for his slip in playing time or vice versa? I can't help but shake from my head memories of Michael Morse's breakout last year, though. Morse was hyped like Mayberry (a late bloomer, people said), and was dropped like Mayberry after a terrible start to the season. Soon, Morse was a star. Unfortunately, we don't have the luxury to find out what Mayberry could have been—the best we can do is extrapolate his last year's stats and sulk.
Alex Castellanos (recommended Week 8, when he was not available in Yahoo! leagues, and was available in 0.0 percent of ESPN formats)
He went 3-for-21 in his taste of the majors. Still, those minor league numbers jump out at you: .319 at Double-A Springfield with 19 homers and 10 steals (93 games) and .360 at Triple-A Albuquerque (eight homers, 11 steals in 41 games). Keep him stashed in keeper leagues. Otherwise: Hope you didn't use your waiver priority on him.
Jose Tabata (recommended Week 11, when his ownership was 21 percent Yahoo!, 3.5 percent ESPN))
I smelled turnaround, while Clint Hurdle and Neil Huntington couldn't stand to watch Tabata jog backwards in the outfield and fail to run out grounders. He'll be back, I think, but his big developmental step back is depressing. Take a shot on Starling Marte, who's killing it at Triple-A right now.
Note to readers: I speak for all writers at The Hardball Times, I think, when I say that we do this for you. I wouldn't happily write a Waiver Wire column a week unless I carried the hope/thought that it was helping, so with that said, I invite all suggestions, criticisms, rantings, praise, fan/hate mail for Waiver Wire thus far and Waiver Wire to come. Feel free to leave your ramblings below or if you want to more privately kiss my feet or chastise me, send me an email, as you're always invited to do, at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).
As they say, "Help me help you." How can we improve the Waiver Wire column for you?
Posted by Nick Fleder at 2:13am
Halfway through the season and we have 11 weeks worth of AL Waiver Wires published on the site. The first eight were by Josh Shepardson, now of Baseball Prospectus, and the last three weeks I've stepped in and tried to keep up the great work done by him.
Sometimes there's been good advice; other times our picks have fallen flat. Let's look at the best and worst picks by each of us.
Pitching gems
Felipe Paulino (recommended Week 5, when his ownership was 3 percent Yahoo, 0.3 percent ESPN)
Unfortunately, Paulino has been on the DL the past month with a groin strain that's caused his fantasy owners to miss a month's worth of quality pitching. While he was injured it was discovered he also needed Tommy John surgery, so Paulino's season is done. Before the injury, though, the hard-throwing righty had a 1.67 ERA through seven starts and looked poised to be a valuable asset the rest of the season. I give Josh credit for making this rec after just Paulino's first start even though it won't play out.
A.J. Griffin (recommended Week 10, when it was practically impossible to add him)
Griffin is no top prospect, so he's not someone you'll hear much about in prospect reports that typically just cover the top guys, whether it's good news or bad. Therefore Griffin was surely underwritten about given his impressive minor league stats ( and curveball) and proximity to the majors when I shared my thoughts on him.
About a week later he received the call and now, three starts later, he's yet to give up more than two runs in any of them. Unfortunately he's also yet to factor into a decision, but he's certainly been worth the add to anyone who was brave enough to start him against the Rangers and Red Sox (probably no one). At least his next start is against hapless Seattle.
Pitching duds
Luke Hochevar (recommended Weeks 1 and 3, when his ownership was 9 percent Yahoo, 1.9 percent ESPN)
Josh pushed hard for people to add the former first overall pick, highlighting him in the offseason and two of the first three Waiver Wires. While Hochevar has a couple of gems to his name this season, overall he's pitched poorly. After yesterday's injury-shortened start, his ERA sits at 5.14, his WHIP is 1.39, and his strikeout rate is an uninspiring 6.52 per nine. With numbers like those, very few people should have added him to their teams.
Justin Grimm (recommended Week 11, when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo, 1.9 percent ESPN)
I embarrassingly gave a reserved vote of confidence in Grimm after his solid debut, only to see him last all of one inning in his next turn, against the Tigers. By the time three outs were recorded, nine batters reached base and six of them came around to score. Grimm was rightfully sent back to the minors after one more appearance, and I was left wondering why I didn't profile Franklin Morales that week instead. I hope you listened to my colleague Brad Johnson and avoided Grimm's start as he advised.
Hitting gems
Josh Reddick (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 4 percent Yahoo, 2 percent ESPN)
More than just an All-Star snub this year, Reddick was also snubbed in most fantasy drafts and left in free agency to start the season. A few weeks in and Reddick's stats weren't too impressive, but Josh (Shepardson) saw a player playing every day, batting third, and with a decent skill-set worthy of an add. Those who listened have so far gotten a great return on their investment and Reddick shows little signs of slowing down in the second half.
Brandon Moss (recommended Week 9 when his ownership was 0 percent Yahoo and ESPN)
The swap at first base between Kila Ka'aihue and Moss was initially ignored by most people, until he went off and blasted five homers in four days. A few days before that homer binge—when Moss had all of one home run to his name—I did a write-up of him, noting Oliver saw potential in this post-hype sleeper's bat. Of course I didn't see 10 homers in 24 games, but I'll take some credit for being one of the first to write about him,
Hitting duds
Luke Scott (recommended Week 2, when his ownership was 14 percent Yahoo, 5 percent ESPN)
As of Josh's writing that Scott was a solid bet for the rest of the season, he was batting .333 with an OPS over 1,000. Since that peak, though, his average has been in a near-constant free fall down to its current .194 mark. In a feat of ineptitude and extreme bad luck, Scott has managed to go a Rays franchise record 39 at-bats without a single hit. He's known as a streaky hitter, but this is beyond anyone's normal ebb and flow of production. How he will perform the rest of the season is one giant mystery.
Michael Saunders (recommended Week 9, when his ownership was 17 percent Yahoo, 13.7 percent ESPN)
When I confidently proclaimed that Saunders should have universal ownership, he was in the middle of a tremendous hot streak. Over a stretch of 10 games, he had multi-hit performances in five of them. In nearly a month's worth of play since, he has just two. Saunders still possesses impressive tools, making him someone to always keep an eye on, but based on his play of late, he was a clear sell-high at the time.
Posted by Paul Singman at 2:06am
Thursday, July 05, 2012
If you are reading this, there’s a good chance that you have already read about the big news. That’s right: Hardball Times has joined forces with FanGraphs. But, what does this mean to our THT Fantasy readers; how will this affect you?
In regard to your day to day experience as readers of both THT Fantasy Hardball Times and RotoGraphs, the transition will be all but seamless. In fact, this marriage opens up new avenues of collaboration and exciting ventures that will do nothing but benefit our readers.
This is not like your local bank being acquired by a mega bank. Think of it more like Wrestlemania 1988 when Randy “Macho Man” Savage and Hulk Hogan merged into a tag team (the aptly named Mega Powers) that realized a fantasy that many of their young fans had only dreamed of previously. … Fill in the role of Miss Elizabeth here using your own imagination.
I’m dating myself, aren’t I?
Anyway, the point is that this is nothing but good news for the readers of both sites. Fantasy-wise, we will continue to exist on our independent sites, largely under our own pre-established branding. It is anticipated that all of our existing regular features, such as Waiver Wire, Trader’s Corner, Fluke Watch, and of course Brad Johnson’s Daily Grind will continue to be published here as always. Additional columns from the rest of our staff will continue to run and continue to touch on a variety of topics. FanGraphs will continue to churn out the quality, timely fantasy content they are known for as well under their RotoGraphs blog.
This year, the two sites collaborated to launch the THT vs. FanGraphs Fantasy League sponsored by Fantasy Squared. Expect more collaboration in the future. Both sides will begin actively brainstorming and exploring additional initiatives of a more interactive nature that could provide new services and engagement opportunities for our readers. Stay tuned; I’m sure announcements are to come.
The general vision of the sites-wide partnership stipulates that over time the general skew of the Hardball Times content will focus on more research-based and historical pieces, while FanGraphs will prioritize current events stories and analysis. This same skew may be represented in our respective Fantasy sections as well, but that is most likely an evolution to occur over time and should have little to no impact on either THT Fantasy or RotoGraphs through the conclusion of the 2012 season. Throughout the sites, you may begin to see some cross-posting as well.
Overall, this marriage is a win-win for the staffs and readers of both groups. We, as a consortium of writers, now have twice the depth of knowledge, experience, and horsepower to draw from to generate, form, and execute ideas and initiatives. At the same time you, as readers, can still access our content the same way you are used to and will be the beneficiaries of new and exciting future projects.
So, sit back, relax, and treat tomorrow just as you did today and we’ll take care of the rest. If you have additional questions, concerns, or ideas for joint ventures that you would like to see from the two groups, feel free to drop any of us a line and let your voice be heard. Another thing that will not be changing is the way we value input from our readers.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 10:30am
Tuesday, July 03, 2012
When it comes to making trades in fantasy baseball leagues, there are typically three methods of processing them for approval: commissioner's decision, league vote, or automatic upon acceptance. There are arguments to be made about which is better than the others, but that is a discussion for another day.
In the case discussed below, the league has a written constitution with rules relating to the approval of trades. Here, the commissioner has sole authority to approve or reject trades that his own team is not involved in. The rules also prohibit anyone from challenging or appealing such decisions. However, somebody did just that.
SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT
Rubik’s Pubes vs. League Commissioner
ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE 1980’s FANTASY BASEBALL LEAGUE
Decided June 27, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 98 (June 2012)
Factual Background
A rotisserie fantasy baseball league called the 1980’s Fantasy Baseball League (hereinafter referred to as “roto league” or “1980’s”) is a 14-team AL/NL mixed keeper league and has been in existence since 2004. The league utilizes an auction-style draft and transaction platform on CBSSports.com. Teams are permitted to maintain up to five (5) players during each off-season with individual players allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (5) consecutive years under contract. Each team is also permitted to keep three minor league players in addition to the five players kept. This roto league also has a $260.00 draft salary cap.
As with many rotisserie leagues, the 1980’s uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) home runs; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the roto league.
The league is governed by a written constitution which includes rules and guidelines regarding the making of trades between teams. The following represents the provision with respect to trades in pertinent part:
Section VI. Trades
A. Trades are permitted between any two teams and are subject to approval by the league commissioner.
B. There is no limit to the number of trades that can be made by each team.
C. Trades may only be made up until the deadline of August 31, 2012. Trades may not be made again until after the conclusion of the 2012 World Series.
D. Trades are permitted in the off-season and are subject to the same approval process as delineated above.
* * * * *
G. The commissioner shall have the authority to reject trades made through collusion or that are otherwise completely lopsided to the detriment of the league.
H. Any trade made by the league commissioner shall be subject to approval by the co-commissioner.
* * * * *
L. There is no recourse for appealing the commissioner or co-commissioner’s decision regarding the approval or rejection of a trade. The league members hereby consent to the commissioner and co-commissioner’s authority and discretion to make such final decisions.
On June 26, 2012, a trade was made between the teams of Biff Tannen Loves Manure (“Biff Tannen”) and Space Shuttle Challenger (“Challenger”). Biff Tannen traded Tim Lincecum (SP-SF) and Chase Utley (2B-PHI) to Challenger in exchange for Trevor Bauer (SP-ARZ), Bobby Parnell (RP-NYM), and Ryan Lavarnway (C-BOS). The commissioner subsequently approved the trade and an automated email was generated from CBS announcing the trade to the rest of the league.
Procedural History
After learning of the trade, the team known as Rubik’s Pubes contacted the commissioner challenging the approval of the trade. Rubik’s Pubes argued that the trade was unfair and should have been rejected. The commissioner rejected Rubik’s Pubes appeal and reminded him that the rules state the commissioner’s decision regarding trades is final.
Despite what the commissioner said and what is written in the league constitution, Rubik’s Pubes submitted this case to the Court seeking a reversal of the commissioner’s decision to approve this trade. The commissioner has stated that Rubik’s Pubes should not be able to submit this case for review because the league’s rules clearly state that there is no recourse for challenging his decisions on trades.
Issues Presented
(1) Does Rubik’s Pubes have standing to bring this appeal to the Court?
(2) If Rubik’s Pubes does have standing, should the trade between Biff Tannen and Challenger be upheld?
Decision
Fantasy sports league commissioners are empowered with the tasks of creating the league’s rules, settings, and guidelines. Bryan LaHair Club For Men vs. League Commissioner, 4 F.J. 26, 28 (April 2012). The Court strongly advocates for commissioners to codify these rules in a written constitutions for a myriad of reasons. John Doe vs. Fantasy Football League Commissioner, 2 F.J. 21, 22 (October 2010).
One of the primary reasons to have a constitution is so that all league members are aware of the rules and guidelines in place that govern the administration and function of the fantasy league. When a league commissioner writes out the rules and distributes them to the league, it shifts the burden onto the league members to read, understand, and adhere to the rules that are delineated. Shawn Kemp is My Daddy vs. Fantasy Basketball League Commissioner, 2 F.J. 24, 25 (October 2010).
If a league member has an issue, question or challenge to one of the rules in the constitution, they are welcome to raise this with the commissioner before signing it or agreeing to its codification. Machine vs. Fantasy Football League Commissioner, 2 F.J. 1, 2 (September 2010).
Here, the roto league does have a constitution which grants the commissioner the power and authority to rule on pending trades. The criteria for rejecting trades include collusive conduct or lopsided deals that are detrimental to the league as a whole. There do not appear to be any allegations of collusion, so the commissioner’s basis for accepting the trade was based on his evaluation of the trade as being fair and equitable.
The constitution also provides the commissioner with the final authority to approve or reject trades that he is not a party to. Subsection L under Section VI. of the league constitution codifies the commissioner’s powers as follows:
L. There is no recourse for appealing the commissioner or co-commissioner’s decision regarding the approval or rejection of a trade. The league members hereby consent to the commissioner and co-commissioner’s authority and discretion to make such final decisions.
There is no indication that the language of this provision was ever challenged or questioned by any members of the league at the time the rules were set forth and distributed. By participating in the league with an existing written constitution, the league members are bound to the rules set forth.
Clearly there are circumstances where the commissioner’s power and authority morphs into an abuse of discretion which must be curtailed. See Cincinnati Bungles vs. O&A’s Two Point Conversion, 3 F.J. 88, 90 (July 2011). However, the ability to approve or reject trades does not rise to this level, especially when there are checks and balances on trades the commissioner makes for his own team.
One of the primary reasons league commissioners retain the authority to approve or reject trades is because league votes tend to inhibit people’s ability to make deals. Relying on all other league members to objectively vote on a trade doesn’t always lead to the fairest decisions.
There is nothing in the rules that warrants a check or balance on the commissioner’s ability to decide whether a trade should be approved or not. That being said, we must determine whether Rubik’s Pubes can even bring this appeal in the first place. The legal doctrine of standing is where a plaintiff must have a personal stake or interest in a dispute that has been invaded by the defendant in order to obtain judicial relief.
Here, Rubik’s Pubes is a member of the roto league and does in fact have a financial interest in the outcome of the league. Even though he was not a party to the underlying trade, his team and the results of the league could potentially be affected by the outcome of the trade. Based on this analysis, Rubik’s Pubes does have legal standing.
However, in terms of whether he has standing in the context of his fantasy baseball league, the Court comes to a different conclusion. The rules do clearly state that “there is no recourse for appealing the commissioner or co-commissioner’s decision regarding the approval or rejection of a trade.” When the rules of a league are delineated in a written document, they should be adhered to unconditionally unless there are extenuating circumstances that would justify a deviation from the document. Justin Verlander’s School for People Who Don’t Pitch Good vs. Angel Pagan Worshippers, 3 F.J. 105, 106 (August 2011).
There is no discernible reason to make an exception here for Rubik’s Pubes to be able to challenge the commissioner’s decision on a trade. The commissioner has not done anything outside the bounds of his authority. Other league members are certainly entitled to disagree with the decisions he makes. However, they have tacitly agreed to the rules of the league as set forth in the constitution. Included in those rules is the fact that there is no ability to challenge or dispute decisions on trades.
Based on the foregoing, the Court concludes that Rubik’s Pubes does not have standing to bring this appeal based on the language in the league constitution. Because he does not have standing to bring the appeal, there is no need to address the second question presented in terms of whether the underlying trade should have been approved. The decision to approve the trade stands.
IT IS SO ORDERED.
Posted by Michael Stein at 5:34am
 | | Marte with a perfect-form bunt. (US Presswire) |
Even though the Pirates are relevant as a team this year, for fantasy purposes their lineup is still mostly irrelevant. Outside of Andrew McCutchen and random fits of homers from Pedro Alvarez, the pickings are slim in Pittsburgh.
An easy target to blame for this is Jose Tabata, he of a .230 average and sub-.300 on base percentage. His bat seemingly oozing with fantasy potential after his rookie season in 2010—hitting .300 with five home runs and 19 steals in 100 games—Tabata has since oozed, for the most part, only outs from his bat.
On Monday, word came out that the Pirates are upset with Tabata's performance and effort level this year, and are increasingly likely to send him to the minors to get his act together. A major reason the Pirates are willing to send down their starting right fielder is the presence of a talented outfielder in Triple-A named Starling Marte.
At 23 years-old against Triple-A pitchers, Marte has batted .284 with eight homers and 16 steals, demonstrating his decent pop and plus speed. Over a full season, Oliver projects Marte is capable of a .280 average, 11 homers, and 24 stolen bases. Not huge numbers, but for a fourth outfielder in a 14-team leagues, he can suffice.
Scouting reports also indicate Marte is a plus defender, making the choice to promote him easier. I don't know who you're running out in your outfield at the moment, but consider bidding around $2 to make Marte one of your options. Considering the Pirates lineup is fluctuating a lot, factor in that he may find himself batting first or second fairly quickly if he produces out of the gate.
This is all assuming Marte does get the call in the near future, meaning Tabata doesn't miraculously turn his season around or Drew Sutton doesn't fill the role of the place-holder for too long. If I'm putting my money somewhere though, it's on Marte.
Posted by Paul Singman at 3:51am
Monday, July 02, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
I will be driving from Georgia to New Jersey overnight and hence will not be writing a column tomorrow morning. And probably not the next morning either.
Today's grind
Today's pitching options all have their warts.
Carlos Zambrano is 36 percent owned and matches up against a solid Brewers offense.
Jarrod Parker's ownership has skyrocketed to 49 percent, and his match-up against the Red Sox is scary.
Jordan Lyles isn't a great pitcher, but he's just one percent owned and will face a weak Pirates lineup.
Jim Thome will face Mariners righty Hisashi Iwakuma. Thome is six percent owned, but should probably be picked up in most formats.
I'll let Seth Smith out for his usual match-up against a righty. Today it's Daisuke Matsuzaka.
Luke Scott and Carlos Pena are set to face Freddy Garcia.
Brennan Boesch is having a hard time of it this season, but he has to be able to hit Liam Hendriks. Right?
Tomorrow's grind
Some good options including Marco Estrada against the Marlins, Jair Jurrjens versus the Cubs, Andrew Cashner against the Diamondbacks, and Wei-Yin Chen against the Mariners.
Jonny Gomes will get another crack at Jon Lester.
If Boesch can hit Hendriks, he should be able to hit Nick Blackburn too.
Vin Mazzaro seems like a good match-up for Adam Lind.
Salvador Perez is still out there for the taking in many leagues. Brett Cecil opposes.
Reliever watch
Santiago Casilla blew the save yesterday, but only because he felt like earning a win.
Yesterday’s results
Perhaps another time...
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:58am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Andy Pettitte’s return had become one of baseball’s warmer stories in 2012, but a devastating fractured left ankle will cost him at least the next two months of the season. His injury occurred on the same day that CC Sabathia landed on the DL with a strained muscle in his left leg, so look for Freddy Garcia and David Phelps to pick up starts, especially after Adam Warren was blasted by the White Sox Friday and was subsequently demoted.
• Forearm tendinitis forced Colby Lewis to the DL, and he likely won’t be seen until after the All-Star break. His absence, however, does open up a spot for left-hander Martin Perez, the Rangers’ best pitching prospect. Perez, 21, posted five strikeouts over 5.1 innings while beating the A’s on Saturday, and could stick around in the rotation even after Lewis returns if he pitches well enough.
• Daniel Hudson has a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow, and you know what that means: Tommy John surgery. Of course, his departure means that some guy named Trevor Bauer will have a chance to make starts at the major league level. Bauer, of course, is a must-add in any league in which he’s still available, but he left his major league debut last week due to a groin injury that’s apparently been nagging him throughout the season. He expects to make his next start, however.
• A broken bone in Lonnie Chisenhall’s right forearm will cost the 23-year-old up to the next three months, which will probably boost Jose Lopez’s playing time.
Other bumps and bruises
• Knee inflammation sidelined Joey Votto during Sunday’s game against the Giants.
• David Price was pulled early from his start Friday against the Tigers with a back tightness, though he expects to make his start this week against the Yankees. Manager Joe Maddon, however, seems cautious in pushing the All-Star back onto the mound, so consider him a risky start in week 14.
Trading block
• As of Sunday night, Carlos Lee was still making up his mind about whether to accept a trade from the Astros to the Dodgers. Lee, 36, has just five homers and 29 RBIs this season, and yet would still be a boost to LA’s lineup if he were to replace James Loney.
• Baltimore added Jim Thome for a couple of low-level minor-leaguers over the weekend, though it remains to be seen how much playing time the 41-year-old first baseman will be able to grab. Nick Johnson, however, was added to the DL last week with a sprained right wrist, which will likely give Thome some at-bats.
Minor developments
• Yasmani Grandal was called up again, but this time, his biggest roadblock to playing time, Nick Hundley, was demoted to make room for him as the Padres’ No. 1 catcher. Grandal, 23, was a centerpiece of the Mat Latos deal over the offseason, and promptly slammed two home runs on Saturday.
• Drew Pomeranz, arriving in his second major league stint this season to replace the demoted Guillermo Moscoso, pitched well Sunday in his loss to San Diego, giving up just two hits over six innings and allowing one unearned run. There’s much to like about Colorado’s young lefty, but keep in mind the team’s four-man starting rotation will keep his pitch count limited.
• Speaking of the Padres, flame-thrower Andrew Cashner was called up last week after spending a few weeks in the minors to get stretched out, and carried a no-hitter into the seventh inning Friday against the Astros. Like most young pitchers, he’s at risk of a pitch count, but there’s no question that PETCO Park could immeasurably aid him as he settles in as a starter.
• It’s been a tough season for Brian Matusz, so maybe his trip down to Triple-A will give the 25-year-old lefty a chance to work out some kinks. The team has not yet announced Matusz’s replacement, though one imagines either Zach Britton or Chris Tillman, both pitching in Triple-A, would be the most obvious candidates.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 4:57am
This is Page 1 of 1 THT Fantasy Focus pages
|
