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THT Fantasy Focus
August 2012
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Monday, August 06, 2012

The daily grind: 8-6


The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.


I've watched a lot of Phillies games in the past couple of weeks. Chase Utley is smashing the ball although his numbers don't show it and Domonic Brown is having great at-bats (generally). Both could be nice, cheap pick-ups for a stretch run.

Today's grind


Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): It's definitely been a down year for streamable pitchers and today is no exception. Scott Diamond has a decent match-up with the Indians, except he's already 46 percent owned despite a mediocre fantasy skill set.

Chris Tillman at least is widely available and he should be able to handle the Mariners.

Pitcher (bum): Even the bums are scarce today. Erik Bedard, Aaron Cook and Drew Pomeranz have their share of rough outings, but they're frequently quite solid too.

Hitter (power): Carlos Quentin may unlock his power against Travis Wood. I'm not sure if Tyler Moore is capable of bouncing Jayson Werth, Adam LaRoche or Bryce Harper from the lineup, but he'll have a favorable match-up if he does. David Murphy against Cook looks good too.

Hitter (speed): Not a big day for speedsters. Ben Revere has a solid match-up and Carlos Gomez is starting most days.

Tomorrow's grind


Patrick Corbin's not an exciting pitcher, but he's serviceable and not too many pitchers who meet that description are on the waiver wire.

Samuel Deduno has just been flat lucky, but the Indians aren't terribly good so maybe his luck will hold one more outing.

Wade LeBlanc is a combination of the above. He's definitely been lucky, but he's also usually serviceable. Hopefully he'll hold up against the Mets. And it speaks volumes that the top recommendation of the day has to be qualified with a "hopefully."

Ross Detwiler is yet another service-oriented starter.
















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Team Player Handedness Opposing pitcher   Team Player Handedness Opposing pitcher
Angels         Astros      
  Alberto Callaspo R Bartolo Colon     Ben Francisco R Ross Detwiler
Athletics           J.D. Martinez R Ross Detwiler
  Jemile Weeks S C.J. Wilson   Brewers      
  Chris Carter R C.J. Wilson     Carlos Gomez R Johnny Cueto
  Jonny Gomes R C.J. Wilson     Norichika Aoki L Johnny Cueto
Blue Jays         Cubs      
  Anthony Gose L James Shields     Brett Jackson L Ross Ohlendorf
  Yunel Escobar R James Shields     Josh Vitters R Ross Ohlendorf
  Rajai Davis R James Shields     David DeJesus L Ross Ohlendorf
Indians         Dodgers      
  Travis Hafner L Sam Deduno     A.J. Ellis R Alex White
  Casey Kotchman L Sam Deduno   Giants      
Mariners           Brandon Belt L Lance Lynn
  Casper Wells R Zach Britton     Angel Pagan S Lance Lynn
  Trayvon Robinson S Zach Britton   Marlins      
Orioles           Carlos Lee R Jon Niese
  Wilson Betemit S Blake Beaven     Justin Ruggiano R Jon Niese
Rangers         Mets      
  Craig Gentry R Jon Lester     Scott Hairston R Wade LeBlanc
Rays           Andres Torres S Wade LeBlanc
  Sean Rodriguez R J.A. Happ   Nationals      
  Elliot Johnson S J.A. Happ     Steve Lombardozzi S Jordan Lyles
Red Sox         Padres      
  Ryan Lavarnway R Ryan Dempster     Yonder Alonso L TBA
  Cody Ross R Ryan Dempster     Carlos Quentin R TBA
Royals           Cameron Maybin R TBA
  Salvador Perez R Jake Peavy     Will Venable L TBA
  Alcides Escobar R Jake Peavy     Chris Denorfia R TBA
  Lorenzo Cain R Jake Peavy   Phillies      
Tigers           Domonic Brown L Mike Minor
  Brennan Boesch L Phil Hughes     Ty Wigginton R Mike Minor
  Quintin Berry L Phil Hughes     John Mayberry Jr. R Mike Minor
Twins         Pirates      
  Ryan Doumit S Corey Kluber     Starling Marte R Patrick Corbin
  Denard Span L Corey Kluber   Reds      
  Ben Revere L Corey Kluber     Todd Frazier R Mike Fiers
White Sox         Rockies      
  Dayan Viciedo R Bruce Chen     Josh Rutledge R Aaron Harang
Yankees           Tyler Colvin L Aaron Harang
  Raul Ibanez L Rick Porcello          


Let's try some newbies, Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters against Ross Ohlendorf.

The Twins coterie has a lovely match-up on its hands.

Look for Scott Hairston against LeBlanc.

Reliever watch


Ryan Cook is on very thin ice after blowing his fourth save on Saturday. I've been saying all along that Cook isn't really a fireman, but I also thought he'd survive the season. Now it looks like a committee could form, including Grant Balfour and Sean Doolittle among others.

Chris Perez blew his third save of the season yesterday. It was a five-run doozy.

Andrew Bailey's rehab is progressing well. It is unclear who will handle the closer job in Boston once he returns, though it will likely depend on Alfredo Aceves' recent performance. He blew a save on Saturday.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:58am

This week in (fantasy) baseball 7/30-8/5


It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.

Fantasy infirmary


Tommy Hanson landed on the DL last week with a strained lower back injury, though the acquisition of Paul Maholm has filled his rotation spot for the time being. The injury doesn’t sound all that serious, and Kris Medlen could stand to lose his spot in the rotation when the right-hander returns.

• After missing roughly two months earlier this year, Emilio Bonifacio reinjured his left thumb last week, an injury that manager Ozzie Guillen initially feared would cost him the rest of the season. Fortunately, X-rays turned out negative, so although the injury doesn’t look to be season-threatening, it could be enough to cost him a few weeks.

• There aren’t too many players who enjoy breakout seasons at the age of 33, but it’s been a magical campaign for Carlos Ruiz, who’s burst out to become one of the most productive catchers in fantasy this year. But plantar fascitis in his left foot could cost him up to the next six weeks, which looks like it will force the Phillies to use a combination of Erik Kratz and Brian Schneider going forward.

• One of the principal reasons for the A’s mid-summer surge, A.J. Griffin has matured from being a solid prospect to a solid major league starter. Unfortunately, the 24-year-old has hit the disabled list with shoulder inflammation. Brandon McCarthy, himself recovering from a shoulder injury, looks like he could come back before Griffin’s spot in the rotation comes up.

• It’s been a tough year for Lance Berkman after returning to the fantasy fore in 2011. But he’s been bothered by his right knee all season, and after getting hit by a pitch last month, he’s been suffering with inflammation, which has now sent him to the DL. Although he intends to return this season, Berkman was already losing playing time to Allen Craig, who now should be counted upon to play every day for at least the next few weeks.

Michael Cuddyer’s oblique injury has sent him to the disabled list and could cost him up to the next month. Todd Helton will pick up more playing time at first base, while a platoon of Tyler Colvin and Eric Young Jr. will pick up the slack in right field.

• It wasn’t all that long ago when John Danks was a viable fantasy starter. But for the time being, such thoughts are distant memories, as the 27-year-old southpaw will undergo season-ending shoulder surgery. He’s been out since May, anyway, so chances are you weren’t making too many firm plans to use him in fantasy.

• Speaking of once-relevant fantasy players, Neftali Feliz is headed for Tommy John surgery, eliminating him from fantasy owners’ minds for the rest of 2012.

Other bumps and bruises


Brandon Phillips continues to be bothered by a left calf strain, which held him out of the lineup for the better part of week 18. Manager Dusty Baker isn’t sure when he’ll return, so Phillips is probably a safe sit this upcoming week.

Francisco Liriano left his start early on Sunday after suffering a right quad contusion.

Colby Rasmus (groin) and Brett Lawrie (rib) were beaten up last week, though they’re expected to be in the lineup Tuesday against the Rays.

Josh Beckett is expected to start Wednesday against the Rangers after being pulled early from his start last week with back spasms.

Road to recovery


Jaime Garcia looked good on Saturday with 4 ⅓ strong innings in his second rehab start from a shoulder strain. He’s expected to pitch again on Thursday, and if that goes well, he could next join the Cardinals’ rotation.

Brett Anderson is making his way back from Tommy John surgery and could be a few starts away from rejoining the team later this month.

Rotation changes


Carlos Zambrano’s return to fantasy relevance earlier this year was fun while it lasted, but now it looks like the party’s over as the volatile right-hander was demoted to the bullpen early last week. Wade LeBlanc (1-1, 1.35 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 5.9 K/9 in 20 innings, one start) will take over his rotation spot.

Josh Tomlin was brought in to replace Derek Lowe in the Indians’ rotation, but now he’s been bounced to the bullpen, giving Corey Kluber (11-7, 3.59 ERA, 1.356 WHIP, 9.2 K/9 in 21 Triple-A starts) a chance to make a big league splash. His first major league start last week didn’t go so well when he allowed six earned runs against the Royals to pick up a loss.

• The Blue Jays’ rotation has been crushed by injuries this season, but apparently the team wasn’t desperate enough to keep Brett Cecil in the rotation, demoting him last week. J.A. Happ (7-9, 4.85 ERA, 1.446 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 in 111.1 innings between the Astros and the Blue Jays) will take his spot in the rotation.

Trading block


Ryan Dempster finally agreed to be traded by the Cubs, shipped over to Texas in exchange for a couple of minor leaguers. Although he was roughed up by the Angels in his first start, Dempster’s fantasy value figures to rise now that he’s on a contender. His arrival corresponds with the Rangers’ decision to bump Roy Oswalt to the bullpen in place of Scott Feldman.

• In case you were still wondering, the Phillies will not be repeating as NL East champions this year, now that they’ve gone into full fire-sale mode. Leading things off last week was the trade of Shane Victorino to the Dodgers, sending the outfielder to LA for reliever Josh Lindblom and a prospect. His arrival allowed the team to cut Bobby Abreu.

• No sooner had Victorino been swapped than the Phillies sent Hunter Pence to San Francisco for Nate Schierholtz, prospect Tommy Joseph and another minor-leaguer. It’s hard to see how Pence’s fantasy value will not be hurt from the change from Citizens Bank Park to AT&T Park, especially since Ryan Howard and Chase Utley had returned from the DL.

• Lastly, the Phillies also dealt Joe Blanton to the Dodgers for a player to be named later, boosting the 31-year-old’s value as he pitches in a division with better pitchers' parks and weaker lineups.

• The Pirates boosted their outfield last week by acquiring Travis Snider for reliever Brad Lincoln. Snider, 24, had played well since being called up by Toronto last month, though we’ll see how much playing time he grabs as the Pirates also traded for Gaby Sanchez, whom the team can play at first base to spot Garrett Jones.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:11am

August shortstop rankings


Most fantasy rankings are forged on "gut calls" and the whimsical notions of whoever is compiling the list. Some experts don’t pay for saves, some don’t pay for steals, some wait on pitching, some value upside, some value reliability, and so on. While it might be nice to see plenty of different opinions, it probably doesn’t truly help unless you understand the biases of each individual ranker. This is why some of the writers here at The Hardball Times have created their own, objective valuation methods, outlined here and here (reading, or at least skimming, these introductory articles will give you a much better understanding of the rankings that follow and should help to answer most potential questions).

In accompaniment with Oliver’s ZiPS' rest-of-season forecasts, we will use these objective formulas to create objective rankings. You may not agree with a particular rank, but you will know how the ranking was calculated and you won't have to guess what the ranker was thinking. This should make adding your own personal adjustments and biases much easier. And perhaps this type of ranking will introduce some potential buys and sells that you may have otherwise overlooked.

These rankings will assume a 12-team league in adjusting for league average. The ordering of players, however, is unaffected; players will rank in identical order for leagues of all sizes.


Previous installments:

Num Name AB R HR RBI SB AVG rPAA (ROS) EYES (ROS) Full Season*
1 Starlin Castro 226 29 4 25 8 0.292 0.71 1.19 10.20
2 Troy Tulowitzki 160 26 8 28 4 0.294 0.69 1.03 10.12
3 Hanley Ramirez 176 27 6 25 9 0.267 0.59 0.76 9.83
4 Jose Reyes 182 27 3 15 12 0.297 0.52 0.80 9.62
5 Elvis Andrus 213 31 1 19 12 0.282 0.48 0.84 9.52
6 Jimmy Rollins 190 27 5 21 9 0.258 0.23 0.23 8.77
7 Asdrubal Cabrera 200 27 6 24 4 0.275 0.20 0.34 8.68
8 Alexei Ramirez 205 26 5 25 4 0.273 0.07 0.15 8.31
9 Ian Desmond 188 23 5 22 7 0.266 0.02 -0.08 8.17
10 Alcides Escobar 199 25 2 17 9 0.281 -0.02 0.00 8.03
11 Dee Gordon 191 23 10 17 0.262 -0.08 -0.33 7.86
12 Danny Espinosa 200 27 6 22 7 0.235 -0.11 -0.35 7.77
13 Derek Jeter 202 28 3 19 4 0.282 -0.16 -0.04 7.64
14 Emilio Bonifacio 156 22 1 9 12 0.263 -0.47 -0.83 6.71
15 Erick Aybar 178 22 2 16 7 0.27 -0.49 -0.75 6.66
16 J.J. Hardy 186 24 7 21 0.253 -0.55 -0.85 6.49
17 Jhonny Peralta 184 21 5 25 0.266 -0.56 -0.82 6.45
18 Rafael Furcal 155 24 3 15 5 0.265 -0.57 -0.82 6.43
19 Zack Cozart 187 27 5 16 3 0.251 -0.57 -0.83 6.42
20 Trevor Plouffe 164 23 7 19 1 0.25 -0.58 -0.94 6.40
21 Mike Aviles 158 18 4 19 4 0.266 -0.64 -1.06 6.22
22 Yunel Escobar 186 24 4 18 1 0.269 -0.68 -0.92 6.09
23 Brian Dozier 188 22 2 17 5 0.25 -0.86 -1.33 5.57
24 Andrelton Simmons 162 19 1 14 5 0.278 -0.87 -1.28 5.53
25 Cliff Pennington 172 21 2 15 7 0.238 -0.90 -1.50 5.44
26 Marco Scutaro 177 21 2 15 3 0.266 -0.96 -1.39 5.26
27 Yuniesky Betancourt 163 16 4 21 1 0.258 -0.99 -1.58 5.18
28 Ryan Theriot 169 20 14 5 0.272 -0.99 -1.42 5.18
29 Pedro Ciriaco 122 15 1 14 5 0.262 -1.17 -1.84 4.67
30 Sean Rodriguez 138 18 4 16 3 0.225 -1.18 -1.95 4.62
31 Everth Cabrera 117 16 1 9 9 0.231 -1.18 -2.01 4.62
32 Willie Bloomquist 122 16 1 8 5 0.279 -1.23 -1.86 4.49
33 Ruben Tejada 161 18 1 13 2 0.273 -1.27 -1.83 4.37
34 Alexi Amarista 152 17 1 15 4 0.25 -1.27 -1.97 4.36
35 Eric Sogard 138 19 2 13 3 0.246 -1.27 -1.94 4.36
36 Stephen Drew 124 16 3 15 1 0.258 -1.28 -1.97 4.33
37 Jed Lowrie 111 14 4 14 1 0.252 -1.33 -2.12 4.19
38 Elliot Johnson 111 12 2 11 6 0.243 -1.34 -2.25 4.16
39 Cody Ransom 121 14 5 18 1 0.215 -1.37 -2.31 4.07
40 Brendan Ryan 139 18 1 12 4 0.23 -1.50 -2.34 3.69

*Full season = the raw (non-adjusted) full season pace roto score using the roto points-above-replacement method. This is, essentially, the amount of expected roto points each player would score above an empty spot in a lineup over a full season.

Analysis


Troy Tulowitzki – Tulo took batting practice Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery on his groin. There is still no timetable for his return, however, and with the Rockies’ position, 29 games below .500, it would be prudent to make sure he is fully healthy before bringing him back. There is no indication that the Rockies are planning on, or considering, shutting Tulowitzki down for the remainder of the season, so without any major setbacks, he should see action at some point in 2012.

ZiPS projects Tulowitzki to play in 43 of the Rockies’ remaining 57 games. Since there is still no timetable for his return, this seems overly optimistic.

Arbitrary adjustment: Taking my best guess, I would project around 34 games for Tulo. This would move his value to 0.05 (rPAA) and 0.03 (EYES), ninth among shortstops.

Starlin Castro – At the end of April, Castro had 10 stolen bases and looked like he might be on his way to a 30-steal season. He followed that up with five steals in May, but since then he has stolen just one base in six attempts over the past two months. ZiPS has Castro down for eight more steals the rest of the way. Steals can come at random, but unless his current stolen base trajectory takes an drastic turn, paying for eight steals the rest of the way might not be the wisest move.

Arbitrary adjustment: Four steals? Does that sound fair? That is what I am going with. This would move his expected roto score down to 0.36 (rPAA) and 0.76 (EYES), also sliding him down to fourth at shortstop.

Ian Desmond – Desmond is currently on the disabled list and, as with Tulowitzki, there is no timetable for return. Players with this type of oblique injury collectively miss an average of 26 games, according to the Los Angeles Dodgers’ senior director of medical services, Stan Conte, who has studied this sort of injury extensively.

Desmond was placed on the DL on July 22, so look for him to return sometime close to the end of August, which would leave the Nationals with about 40 games left in the season. Assuming he plays all of those games, his new expected roto value becomes -0.53 (rAA) and 0.95 (EYES), moving him back to 15th at the position.

Dee Gordon – Gordon suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right thumb on July 4. According to Gordon’s original timetable, he is expected to miss at least two more weeks. That timetable was announced about three weeks ago, so it might be outdated by now.

Assuming he is still on course for a five-week recovery, a reasonable expectation might be 35-40 games from this point forward, much less than the 47 games that ZiPS projects. And that is also assuming that the Dodgers don’t get tired of his .280 on base percentage, and .263 wOBA, and cut his playing time now that they have added Hanley Ramirez.

Arbitrary adjustment: With 35 games played, and that might be a bit volatile, his expected roto value moves down to -0.75 (rPAA) and -1.35 (EYES), which makes him the new 22nd ranked shortstop.

Josh Rutledge - ZiPS does not have a projection for Josh Rutledge. However, since he was called-up on July 13, Rutledge has hit .329/.348/.659, with six home runs and three stolen bases, so he is merits mentioning.

Can Rutledge continue at this pace? No. But, there are reasons to believe that he could be useful for owners in need of a middle infield option down the stretch. His .349 BABIP is probably a bit high, but he has maintained a high BABIP throughout his minor league career and is seen as having the hitting tools that might foreshadow a high BABIP. He is also controlling his strikeouts (15.5 percent), as he did in the minors, so while a .329 average is probably out of his reach going forward, we shouldn't expect a complete free-fall either, especially when he plays half of his games in Coors Field.

Coors Field will help his home run totals, too, but he is more of a gap hitter than a home run hitter. Rutledge is also a solid runner and has stolen 30 bases in the minors since the beginning of 2011 (902 plate appearances), so look for a modest contribution on the base paths as well.

The Rockies won't be taking Rutledge out of the lineup while he has a .445 wOBA, but Tulowitzki will be returning at some point this season. With the way Rutledge is hitting, that could mean he moves to second base, pushing DJ LeMahieu to the bench, or, if Rutledge comes back to earth, he and LeMahieu could split time at second. Tulo's return will make this situation much more hazy if Rutledge does begin to slump, but right now he is playing, and playing very well. I'd be skeptical about going all-in, though.

Arbitrary projection: A fantasy line of 21/4/17/4/.272 in 182 at-bats. This would give him expected roto values of -0.53 (rPAA) and -0.86 (EYES), ranking him as the 16th best shortstop for the remainder of 2012.

Posted by Jesse Sakstrup at 4:40am


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