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THT's Fantasy Archives
Thursday, August 23, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start):Originally, Bartolo Colon was the only guy I was going to recommend today, but now that's out of the question. I suppose Alex Cobb against the A's is a stream-worthy option, but it's not a low-risk, high-reward play.
Pitcher (bum): Tyson Ross is filling in for Colon and interesting results should follow.
Hitter (power): Brandon Moss against Cobb and Delmon Young versus J.A. Happ are the best of the scant options for today.
Hitter (speed): Craig Gentry isn't a huge base threat, but he can swipe a bag now and then and his match-up against Scott Diamond is solid.
Drew Pomeranz has been showing good stuff lately and the Cubs offense is some kind of terrible.
I shall lay a puzzle before you. Imagine a pitcher who has not allowed a run in 10 of his last 12 appearances. Seven of those appearances were out of the bullpen, but three of his last five starts have been seven innings or more of shutout baseball. Who do you think that might be? Tune in later to find out.
Moving on, Patrick Corbin against the Padres is a highly exploitable match-up, even if it is at Chase Field.
Jarrod Parker is up against the A's today. His ownership is up to 39 percent, so the window to acquire him might be past.
And the answer to the puzzle is Kyle Kendrick. He's looked very sharp aside from two starts where he was transitioning back out of the bullpen. But he's still Kyle Kendrick, so proceed at your own risk.
I think we can just assume that I'm going to recommend Carlos Gomez most days. I'm still a bit surprised he's only 33 percent owned. Even if you don't believe in the power, the steady steal production is clutch.
Along the same vein, Rajai Davis has the platoon advantage too. Less power than Gomez and more speed.
Cody Ross against Bruce Chenner could result in some power production.
It's been a pretty quiet stretch for bullpen news. I saw Aroldis Chapman live two day ago and it was enjoyable. That's about all I have to say on relievers.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am
Kris Medlen; Ownership up 45.1 percent
It wasn’t long ago when Kris Medlen was paired with Tommy Hanson as the Braves’ one-two punch of the upcoming decade. But, 2009 seems so long ago now, as Medlen’s rise to stardom has been harassed by a multitude of injuries and disappointment.
2012 has been a revitalization as Medlen has put together 80 strong innings and four very strong starts in as many tries. His command has been good (50.9 Zone percentage), he's getting swings out of the zone (32.8 O-Swing percentage), and he is getting just enough swings and misses (81.9 Contact percentage).
Ben Duronio has a good writeup of Medlen’s chances at remaining in the Braves’ rotation over the rest of the season, and I’m inclined to agree that he should remain there.
If you have an opportunity to acquire him, I’d go ahead and make the move.
Projection: 3.450 ERA, 1.223 WHIP, 7.152 K/9, 12.12 W per 33 GS
Jaime Garcia; Ownership up 24.8 percent
If you’re asking around for opinions on Jaime Garcia, you’ll inevitably run into two competing camps: one who thinks he’s maddeningly inconsistent; the other who swears by his talent and patiently awaits that complete season a la 2010.
Unfortunately, I find myself firmly in that second category—which has cost me dearly on a few occasions (including a July 2011 trade where I was the benefactor of his 6.84 ERA month of August).
Nevertheless, the stats don’t lie—and Jaime looking like the pitcher everybody wants him to be. The groundballs are there (27.5 flyball percentage), the Contact percentage is outstanding (75.0 percent) and he is keeping the ball in the zone (49.3 Zone percentage, 34.2 O-Swing percentage).
I think you can get him on the cheap right now, and you should have no qualms about doing so.
Projection: 3.302 ERA, 1.249 WHIP, 8.103 K/9, 13.51 W per 33 GS
Matt Harvey; Ownership up 18.0 percent
Since his debut less than a month ago on July 26, Harvey has had no problem delivering on that considerable preseason promise. He’s throwing Ks, keeping the walks at a reasonable level, and doesn’t have any terrible problems with BABIP or HR/FB percentage.
You've got to love his 72.7 Contact percentage, which is fueling the excellent K-rate. On top of that, he looks like he can keep the walks under control with a 31.2 percent O-Swing percentage.
His minor league track record, his pedigree, and his stuff all suggested he’d be good and—now that he’s doing it on the big stage—I think its safe to say he’ll continue to do so.
Projection: 3.571 ERA, 1.304 WHIP, 9.487 K/9, 12.60 W per 33 GS
Hisashi Iwakuma; Ownership up 17.6 percent
Through some improbable combination of events, Iwakuma has been able to maintain a sub 4.00 ERA despite carrying 21.0 HR/FB and 3.68 BB/9 rates. Nevertheless, what's in the past is in the past, and he seems capable of maintaining reasonable rates from here on out.
His flyball percentage is excellent (27.8 percent) and I see his BB rate falling somewhat going forward—his 48.9 Zone percentage and 32.6 O-Swing percentage are more than good enough.
Iwakuma might be serviceable as a number five or number six starter, but doesn’t look to be worth much more than that.
Projection: 3.938 ERA, 1.358 WHIP, 7.533 K/9, 10.81 W per 33 GS
Patrick Corbin; Ownership up 11.2 percent
Corbin is doing his best to stick in the rotation this time around, posting three quality starts in his last four. The Diamondbacks want him to take a spot in their rotation for 2013, so an extended look should benefit both parties.
The debut of Tyler Skaggs crowds the rotation, but Corbin is slated to start Friday’s game, along with the 29th after that, so he looks OK.
When it comes to fantasy, however, I don’t think there’s much here for owners. It doesn’t look like he’ll be able to top 7.00 K/9 while his ERA and WHIP numbers should be below-average.
Projection: 4.004 ERA, 1.409 WHIP, 6.88 K/9, 11.31 W per 33 GS
Posted by Mike Silver at 5:05am
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