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THT's Fantasy Archives
Thursday, August 30, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
There will be no Grind tomorrow. It's a travel day.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Kyle Kendrick has me stumped. He's been masterful lately to the extent that he's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. But that doesn't stop him from being Kyle Kendrick. Maybe something's going on here, but I've watched these starts and the only thing I've seen is a little more movement out of his two seam fastball.
Jarrod Parker's ownership is at 43 percent, which is probably a little on the low end. Today, he'll face the Indians.
On the other side of that match-up is Justin Masterson. He's potentially available as well at 47 percent owned.
Pitcher (bum): Brooks Raley against the Brewers sounds unpleasant (for Brooks).
Jeremy Guthrie has settled in a bit with the Royals. He is pitching much better than he was for the Rockies, but that just means he's mediocre now. The Tigers are a tough match-up for a mediocre righty.
Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has what is typically a pleasant match-up against Kyle Kendrick. Of course, Kendrick has been dealing lately. Dayan Viciedo against Zach Britton could return a long ball or two.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage, but that hardly counts against Matt Moore. Carlos Gomez also has the platoon advantage and it definitely counts against Raley.
Mike Minor has pitched ably in recent weeks. The biggest improvement has been in the walks allowed—he hasn't allowed more than two free passes in a game since June 30. Against the Phillies and opposite Roy Halladay, we have the fixin's for a low scoring game.
Mark Rogers is always a solid but risky choice. The Pirates still have a pretty crappy lineup, though they've produced runs in bunches for over a month. Now the roster is experiencing a bit of a team-wide slump and Rogers may be able to take advantage.
Clayton Richard isn't a sexy pick, but the Rockies lineup is a shambles. The game is at Coors, so maybe count this as plan D.
I'd consider multiple Giants hitters against Chris Volstad, including a few not listed above.
David Murphy's always a nice well-rounded choice.
Will Venable should get a chance to flash some speed against Alex White.
Todd Frazier and Ryan Ludwick slipped back onto my cheat sheet, but they don't qualify as available players. Still, I like the match-up and Zack Cozart could benefit, too.
Kenley Jansen may be returning to the disabled list with an irregular heartbeat. This is a shame for those in keeper leagues as he's shaping up to be the best closer this side of Craig Kimbrel or Aroldis Chapman. Ronald Belisario and Brandon League will likely battle for the role.
Alfredo Aceves blew another save on Tuesday, which could spell DOOM for Aceves. Honestly, Boston needs starters, right? Aceves has some speckled history as a starter. Maybe the Sox ought to take another look?
Casey Jannsen blew his third save but he's completely safe in that shell of a bullpen.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am
On the surface, Matt Moore is having a solid season that is being supported by a little luck. He has posted a nice 3.60 ERA and league average 1.33 WHIP, but his xFIP (4.34) and SIERRA (4.06) leave something to be desired and raise an eyebrow for repeat success in 2013. Moore has flashed pretty good strikeout stuff (22.8 percent strikeout rate, 11.9 percent swinging strike rate), but has been equally liberal with the free passes (3.96 BB/9).
But Moore’s season numbers are pretty misleading; since the end of May, he has been a much different pitcher than what he showed at the beginning of the year:
Moore’s ERA and WHIP numbers on the season have been elite the past three months; his overall season numbers have been inflated by a poor seven-week stretch to start the year. As you might notice, the big difference for Moore has been his walk rate. Over the past three months, Moore has thrown more first pitch strikes, and walked fewer batters. The results have been a slight uptick in strikeouts and a huge downtick in “big innings” allowed.
To be certain, Moore’s walk rate over the past three months has still been a tick above league average, but let's be practical and put that into perspective. This is Moore's rookie year in the AL East. He just turned 23 years old. He has plenty of room to grow, and his improvements in the walks department as the season has worn on is a positive sign.
Now to be sure, Moore’s minor league walk rates were hardly elite. In five seasons (497.1 innings), Moore registered a pedestrian 3.8 walks per nine rate. However, Moore's wildness calmed down substantially as he matured as a prospect and moved up the ladder. His walk rate in Double-A was a much improved 2.5 walks per nine, and in Triple-A it was a still average 3.1 walks per nine. Oliver projects Moore’s walk rate to improve over the next six seasons, and from what Moore has shown us in the second half (2.9 walks per nine), next year could be the beginning of great things for this top three former prospect, who was ranked on par with the likes of Bryce Harper and Mike Trout last year.
Here is the real kicker question, however: What should keeper league owners do with Matt Moore next year? Certainly he is a guy to target in 2013, but should you keep him? Let's ignore leagues where Moore was had at bargain prices this year; in those leagues the answer is an obvious yes. Focusing solely on leagues where Moore went at "hype prices," the answer is a seemingly counter-intuitive no.
In leagues where Moore owners paid sticker price this year, it is likely that Moore produced slightly negative value. More over, hot prospect name brand prices limit potential value as a keeper and in legacy leagues with escalating costs, higher costs today limit "keepability" tomorrow (for example, I am in a "+$7" cost league that quickly eliminates the long-term "value" of keepers outside the superstars like Jose Bautista you got for $1 in year one). Outside experts leagues and the most intense leagues, and unless someone else owned Moore this season, it is highly unlikely they are paying close enough attention to his season to have noticed his recent dominance.
Most players in fantasy look at the end-of-season totals, not the month-to-month trends. That is not to say he will be cheap next year, but given what he’s done overall this season, he is likely to sell at a slight discount (at least compared to this year) in next season’s draft. Of course between now and then, articles like this may come out and render moot this argument, but at least right now, unless you got Moore at a steal of a price this year, why spend more money on keeping him than you have to?
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 5:22am
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