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THT's Fantasy Archives
Friday, September 28, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): There are a couple options to throw against the wall today. The Orioles have decided to go with Chris Tillman rather than TBA, which means Tillman gets to face the Red Sox.
Homer Bailey is a non-terrible pitcher facing a non-excellent lineup. I know that's a thrilling recommendation.
A.J. Griffin is the guy I'm excited about, but as I mentioned yesterday, I have no real cause to feel that way. I'm recommending him purely on numbers.
Pitcher (bum): Another reason to like Tillman is that he'll be working opposite Aaron Cook. The Orioles should throw a couple crooked numbers before the fifth inning is completed.
On a typical day, Will Smith and David Huff would be easy to point out as bums. But since the Indians and Royals feature uninspiring lineups, it might not work out as planned.
Hitter (power): There are several good platoon match-ups to exploit today. Salvador Perez against Huff is a good place to start, since most owners have plenty of catcher games leftover. If you want outfielders, Raul Ibanez, Delmon Young, Seth Smith and Brandon Moss are waiting.
Hitter (speed): Will Venable and Ben Revere have the best match-ups from the speed contingent.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): This is the day you have been waiting for to exploit Yahoo's innings limit. I hope you are ready.
Andy Pettitte faces the Blue Jays.
Ervin Santana has been very hot recently. A match-up with the Rangers is worrisome, but he won't kill you if you lump him in with five others.
Dan Straily will be starring down a Mariners lineup that might be spending more effort on travel plans than baseball by now.
Steve Johnson will pitch against the Red Sox. He has a 0.00 ERA in his last 16.1 innings.
Royals prospect Jake Odorizzi will spin his second start. The Indians oppose.
Marco Estrada burned us recently, but he faces the Astros.
Eric Stults has pitched very well, especially in Petco, despite being Eric Stults.
Trevor Cahill and Mike Minor are slightly over 50 percent owned, but they have strong match-ups and I've seen them floating around.
Pitcher (bum): With all those names above, there are still a couple bums. Ricky Romero has the misfortune of closing his season against the Yankees.
P.J. Walters might have it worse. He has to survive a potent, desperate Tigers offense AND he's opposed by Justin Verlander.
Justin Germano is a journeyman minor leaguer and it shows in his stat line.
Hitter (power): It's another Andruw Jones day.
His running mate on tomorrow's ticket is Jonny Gomes.
There's a pretty good chance the Diamondbacks will start Adam Eaton against Germano.
Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage, which morphs him from a decent player to a five category contributor.
Rajai Davis will face Pettitte.
Reliever watch
Former friend of the column, Todd Frazier, returned a John Axford fastball to the bleachers yesterday. Axford had been cruising along until this blown save. It's late enough in the season that this is a curiosity rather than actionable information.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:46am
Thursday, September 27, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Not much to go on tonight. Patrick Corbin is a solid pitcher and the Giants are coasting toward the playoffs. On the one hand, it's not an ideal match-up. On the other hand, there isn't enough time left to wait for a better one.
Wily Peralta has a similar story in that he has solid stuff and he's facing a clinched team. The downside here is that the Reds are still playing for the right to face the Wild Card team in the division series. It's another match-up that isn't great but might be unavoidable.
Pitcher (bum): A fine trio of bums tonight, headlined by Chris Volstad at Coors, followed by Tyler Cloyd against the Nationals, and anchored by Jacob Turner against the Braves.
Hitter (power): It doesn't get too much better than Tyler Colvin against Volstad. At least not on the waiver wire.
Jonny Gomes will face Matt Harrison.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis will look to slap some hits against a hot and cold Ivan Nova and a sketchy Yankees infield defense. Once on base, the fun begins.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): Usually, this is the time of year where you can find some unusual match-ups and interesting pitchers to role the dice on. Not so much this year.
Homer Bailey is kind of a rich man's version of Clayton Richard (which did not work out yesterday) in that he's fairly stable start to start and doesn't offer much in a fantasy sense. Being a Red with some strikeout ability, he's more likely to win games and accrue some strikeouts. Tomorrow, he'll face the Pirates.
A.J. Griffin has been quite good this season. He really came out of nowhere for me and I haven't had an opportunity to scout him at all. I don't know what to expect going forward, but given his results to date and his match-up against the Mariners, I'm going to use him.
Pitcher (bum): The Red Sox have had a terrible season. That Aaron Cook will be starting his 18th game is probably a good example as to why that might have happened. He'll face the Orioles and the dread hurler TBA.
The Royals Will Smith is not very good, but neither is the Indians' offense. Across the diamond, David Huff is not very good, but neither is the Royals offense. Who will break first?
Hitter (power): Try Salvador Perez against Huff.
Raul Ibanez is back in play against Chad Jenkins. Jenkins most certainly does not have "The Face."
Dust off Delmon Young for a game against Scott Diamond.
You could also try the usual assortment of A's hitters like Seth Smith and Brandon Moss
Hitter (speed): Will Venable and Ben Revere are fair bets to attempt a steal or two between them.
Reliever watch
Frank Francisco is out for the season. I assume that means Bobby Parnell is back in action.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am
Wednesday, September 26, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): As a reader pointed out yesterday, if I'm going to take the time to mention that Jarrod Parker and Martin Perez have marginal match-ups, then I might as well point out that Clayton Richard is a nice option to accrue innings. He's a low-risk, low-reward option and he's category-neutral across the board.
Alex Cobb has been up and down all season. I like him as a mid-rotation pitcher and somebody you can outright own in a deep league. On a start-to-start basis there is a lot of noise. The match-up against the Red Sox is a good one.
Kyle Kendrick is the divisive player of the day. I sketched up a brief scouting report yesterday in the comments section, which I'll quote below. If you need to throw a Hail Mary, use him. If you need to conservatively defend your position, maybe try Richard.
Re: Kendrick. I’ve been in the Philly area for his last 10 starts, so I’ve seen them. I’ve also seen him pitch a LOT over the years. He’s a solid pitcher when he has command of his fastball. During that impressive stretch, he had that requirement down. During his last two outings, it has not been the same.
Pitcher (bum): I spilled some words about Bud Norris, Jeremy Hefner and Samuel Deduno yesterday. It suffices to say that these pitchers are prone to crooked numbers.
Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez has been popular around these parts since the Twins feature so many terrible right-handed pitchers.
Starling Marte against the aforementioned Hefner offers some five category potential.
Jonny Gomes will get a shot at Martin Perez.
Hitter (speed): Will Venable has a decent match-up and could swipe a bag.
Now that the Brewers are all but eliminated, Norichika Aoki might stop swiping bags. Then again, he's probably playing for a job next year so he might finish at full throttle.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): I picked up Roy Halladay, Chris Capuano and Tommy Hanson for tomorrow, but I assume they aren't available to you.
What is available is a whole mess of blah. Patrick Corbin should survive an outing against the Giants with little damage. I like Corbin as one of those mid-rotation pitchers who can help a fantasy roster.
Wily Peralta has a tougher match-up against the Reds, but at this point, they're trying to get guys rested for the postseason.
Pitcher (bum): I don't think Chris Volstad is going to like pitching in Coors.
I have a bad feeling about Tyler Cloyd tonight. The Nationals have quite a few potent lefties to call upon.
I foresee the Braves walloping Jacob Turner. It might be worth noting that five of his last six outings have been of the "not terrible" variety.
Hitter (power): Tyler Colvin is an ideal play against Volstad.
Hold the course with Gomes, although Matt Harrison is a tough opponent.
Hitter (speed): I suppose Rajai Davis against Ivan Nova is what you're looking for here. Nobody stands out as an A+ option today.
Reliever watch
There are a number of bullpens in an utter shambles now, but it hardly matters for fantasy purposes at this point.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am
Those who have kept up with the position-by-position dynamics of fantasy baseball have noticed the emergence of pitching depth in the past few years. There are two predominant and opposing schools of thought regarding how to work with this dynamic from a team-building perspective. One view tells us that depth allows us to deprioritize pitching in your draft/auction because adequate quality players at that position can be found late and cheap. The alternative view preaches that because adequate quality players are so abundant, an extra premium should be placed on acquiring the elite pitchers, as that’s where the top teams will separate themselves from the pack.
In most situations I play out the first perspective when building my team. In one of my leagues this year, a co-owner and I were attempting to work this strategy again, but as the season began to play out we found our team somewhat accidentally employing a different strategy altogether. We’ve been doing okay with it, and are currently holding down second place in a very competitive 12-team mixed league.
I’ll spare you the details of how we got where we did, except to say that trading wasn’t really involved. Ostensibly, we wound up with a pitching staff that looked like it was built in reverse. Only one starter we drafted has remained on our team the entire season (others were lost to both injury and performance), but we hit several homers on our bullpen construction and have a really solid core anchored by Aroldis Chapman, Jim Johnson and Ernesto Freire. This core has been supplemented by a revolving door of elite non-closer relievers and a few part-time closers we managed to land.
We are holding our own with 38 pitching points as I’m writing this and have spent most of the season somewhere between the third and sixth best staff in terms of total points held. So, this got me to thinking: Is this strategy viable—meaning both doable and reasonably likely to yield success—if you tried to do execute it consciously?
I’m not sure there’s an objective way to analyze that question, so I’d rather pose it for discussion instead. To start off, I’m going to list some benefits, drawbacks, assumptions, and risks for this approach. I hope we can all discuss whether they translate into a hit, a dud, or something in between.
Strengths
- Avoids spending high draft picks/cost on elite starting pitchers, leaving more for offense
- Elite middle relievers, on whom this strategy relies, are abundant and often free
- Enables much roster flexibility—not as highly invested in starting pitchers, can drop for bats on travel days, as well as stream for favorable match-ups.
- No matter what, you have to compete for saves, and this option will leave you with elite options in that category
- Advantage in pitching rate stats
Weaknesses
- Disadvantage in pitching counting stats.
- Employing this strategy compels owners to reach for certain relievers to ensure acquisition
Risks
- Disadvantage in counting stats could be too great. This could be more of a strategy to place or show, but not to win; similar to “punting” strategies
- Strategy relies heavily on acquiring a player like Craig Kimbrel or Chapman. Owner is in real trouble if he’s beaten or outbid on them; risk of overpaying for elite closers
- Potential to accumulate too much “surplus value” in saves category
Assumptions
- League allows daily and unlimited transactions
- Elite closers can be acquired in later rounds or less expensively than elite starters
- Identification of elite relievers is as accurate as identification of elite starters
- Pool of elite non-closing relievers is readily available
- Owner is able to correctly identify cheap, quality starting pitchers
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:51am
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I felt pretty safe using Marco Estrada and Wei-Yin Chen. How wrong I was.
Today I feel very uncomfortable with Tyler Skaggs and Edinson Volquez, but that's what's available.
Reader Tom likes Erasmo Ramirez, but I'm not on that particular bandwagon yet.
Pitcher (bum): A couple of offensive powerhouses face weak pitching today. The Yankees will see Esmerling Vazquez, who has struggled in big league exposure. Meanwhile, in the Motor City, you'll find Bruce Chen opposing the Tigers.
The Indians and White Sox game could also feature some fireworks. Both Corey Kluber and Francisco Liriano have struggled this season.
Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez has been very good over the last few days going 7-for-12 in his last three games with five extra base hits and three home runs. Against Vasquez, that performance could very well continue.
Delmon Young has great career numbers against Chen, which means very little. He has strong numbers against lefties as a whole which means a lot more. What's probably most important is that we're talking about Bruce Chen.
Hitter (speed): There's not a lot to say about the speed guys today. Ben Revere, Norichika Aoki and Rajai Davis are solid gambles to snag a base.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): It's another rough day for starters as fantasy owners look for that one last hurrah.
Kyle Kendrick stands out, but he's got to turn back into a pumpkin eventually and he's up to 39 percent owned.
Alex Cobb against the Red Sox is a stealthy pick. Cobb is an inconsistent, mid-rotation pitcher, but the Red Sox are quite depleted.
I'm not comfortable with Jarrod Parker against the Rangers and I'm not a fan of Martin Perez for fantasy purposes, but they're going to end up being some of the better gambles to make up an innings deficit over the next week.
Pitcher (bum): The Cardinals looked like they were going to fall on their face down the stretch, but they merely tripped and recovered. Against Bud Norris tomorrow I expect them to unleash a punishing assault.
Jeremy Hefner didn't record an out in his last start. The Pirates are playing for more in this game, aiming at a .500 or better season.
How do the Twins have so many terrible pitchers? The Yankees should continue their slugging ways against Samuel Deduno.
Hitter (power): Hold the course with Ibanez, who has yet another good match-up.
I usually recommend guys with the platoon advantage, but try Starling Marte against Hefner.
Jonny Gomes will get a look at Rangers prospect Perez.
Hitter (speed): Will Venable has a solid match-up with Aaron Harang. Venable is a little too prone to strikeouts for a speedster type, but Harang doesn't exactly record heaps of those.
Stick with Aoki for speed. He's swiping bags in bunches.
Reliever watch
Heath Bell caused some controversy in a radio interview yesterday by suggesting the Marlins could benefit from a manager less prone to buffoonery. He also seems to be disgruntled about not being the closer, stating that he's pitched well since a rough April. I'm not sure he's looked at his numbers. It might be worth noting that his FIPs are considerably better than his ERAs.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:37am
Monday, September 24, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
It's down to the wire and with that comes a slight shift in presentation.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Grind favorite Marco Estrada is being noticed by more people (35 percent owned). Against the Nationals, it is best to tread carefully.
Wei-Yin Chen is owned at a 44 percent rate, but I picked him up in two leagues yesterday, so he's ostensibly available for some of you.
Dan Straily is interesting, but he also is opposed by the Rangers.
Andy Pettitte is scheduled against the lefty-leaning Twins lineup. It's just the second start back from the disabled list for Pettitte, so expect it to be a high variance outing.
Pitcher (bum): Bums don't mean much these days since teams have 15-man bullpens to clean up any messes. That said, Ricky Romero has had a difficult season and will be starting game two of today's double header.
Liam Hendriks isn't a very good pitcher. The Yankees lineup is depleted, but not THAT depleted.
Hitter (power): Raul Ibanez popped a couple home runs the other day and against Hendriks, he'll have a chance to repeat.
It's a Jonny Gomes day with lefty Derek Holland opposing the A's.
Hitter (speed): With two games today, Rajai Davis and Nate McLouth are both solid selections. McLouth isn't much of a runner, but Davis could potentially swipe several.
Tomorrow's grind
Pitcher (to start): None of tomorrow's pitchers combine the qualities of good match-up with availability.
Tyler Skaggs might be the best pitcher you can acquire on short notice. He has great stuff, but he hasn't quite figured out the big league level yet.
Edinson Volquez pitches at home against the Dodgers and is 47 percent owned.
Pitcher (bum): While all the good names are taken, there are plenty of bums to exploit. The game between the Indians and White Sox pits Corey Kluber against Francisco Liriano. Expect runs to score.
The Tigers should rough up Bruce Chen and the Royals. They still trail the White Sox by just one game, so they need to take advantage of weak opponents.
The Yankees are likely to touch up Esmerling Vasquez for a couple runs. I haven't scouted the guy yet, so I can't say more.
Hitter (power): Vasquez is a good match-up for Yankees' lefty Ibanez, so hold him a second day.
Delmon Young will be pleased to face Chen. Young likes lefties and it's probably fair to say that Chen is one of the easier ones to face.
Hitter (speed): Ben Revere slaps a lot of balls into play, and the Yankees infield defense isn't known for its flash.
Norichika Aoki has closed out the season on a strong note. Let's see if he can continue swiping bags at will.
Davis will get another start with the platoon advantage tomorrow.
It's hard to decide where Craig Gentry goes as he's mostly an average hitter with little power or stolen base potentially. He's more likely to steal a bag than hit a home run, so I'll slot him in here.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am
Friday, September 21, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Pitching options today feature a whole mess of warts. Chris Carpenter is coming off the disabled list for a start today, but he's old and it's been awhile since he's faced major league hitters.
On the young end of the spectrum is Martin Perez, who has a high upside arm but hasn't really shown signs of putting it all together yet. He could blank the Mariners or they could put up some runs on him. Expect inconsistency.
Jarrod Parker is a good pitcher and should not be as available as he is at 44 percent owned. However, his match-up against the Yankees makes him hard to play.
Kyle Kendrick is an enigma and should not be anywhere near 42 percent owned. He's made a career off dominating the Braves, but I wouldn't count on that luck to hold.
Pitcher (bum): Chris Volstad is chiefest of bums today. The Cardinals will look to pile on as they protect their thin Wild Card lead.
In my opinion, Jacob Turner is not ready for the big leagues. The Marlins keep trotting him out there and the Reds will look to take advantage. He's been a little bit better in recent outings.
Hitter (power): Chris Johnson and Brandon Belt are your best options today. They both have the platoon advantage against an inconsistent, young pitcher.
Hitter (speed): Jon Jay and Ben Revere best fall into this bucket, although I'm going to squeeze David DeJesus in here as well. All three are good sources of runs too.
Tomorrow's grind
Much like today (and many other days), tomorrow features a couple pitchers that you could throw the dice on, but nothing desirable.
Patrick Corbin may be the most talented of the bunch. He's away at Colorado.
Wily Peralta would certainly like to compete for the talented title. I expect much inconsistency from him over the next handful of seasons.
Kevin Correia is your boring veteran of the day. The match-up with Astros helps his cause.
I hope you're playing in an AL or mixed league tomorrow.
Andruw Jones is once again available and he's joined by the usual assortment of Athletics hitters— Seth Smith, Brandon Moss, and Coco Crisp. Beyond those common recommendations, Delmon Young and Omar Infante have a strong match-up with Scott Diamond.
Some names from the NL worth a try are Starling Marte and Chris Johnson.
Reliever watch
At this point, the Reliever Watch lacks actionable information. It is humorous to point out that Andrew Bailey has joined the fun in Boston with his first blown save of the season. I almost feel bad for their blackhearted fans.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:49am
Thursday, September 20, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Not the best day to stream pitchers.
Tyler Skaggs squares off against Clayton Richard today. Both pitchers are streamable for different reasons, but neither is particularly desirable.
If that's not floating your boat, Ross Detwiler and Tommy Milone are respectable pitchers, but both are facing decent offenses in the Dodgers and Tigers.
Pitcher (bum): I expect the Phillies to get to Jeremy Hefner, but maybe that's unreasonable. If you want something more sure-fire, the Reds are likely to be rude to Jason Berken.
Hitter (power): Today features some good power bats on the wire, all with the platoon advantage. These include Seth Smith, Brandon Moss, Andruw Jones, Domonic Brown and Delmon Young.
Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez is back again. He could provide a little pop too.
Tomorrow's grind
Some guy named Chris Carpenter is starting today. I need not warn you that it's been a long time since he has faced major league hitters, but here I am warning you anyway.
Jarrod Parker against the Yankees? Kyle Kendrick versus the Braves? I don't think so, but you might. If you use either, good luck.
Martin Perez is up against the Mariners. Obviously, the match-up is great, but I haven't bought into Perez's readiness quite yet.
I'm not terribly excited about tomorrow's options. I would be looking in the direction of Jon Jay, David DeJesus, Chris Johnson or Brandon Belt. If all you need are stolen bases, you could also try Ben Revere.
Reliever watch
If you live somewhere with internet access, you've probably heard that top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy has been activated to serve in the Orioles bullpen. The impact this season is probably zero, but keeper leagues should have already made their move.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:44am
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Be aware, there are two doubleheaders today. The Yankees/Blue Jays and Nationals/Dodgers both have twin bills, so look for hitters from those teams and setup relievers who could end up with a save.
Pitcher (to start): I think Marco Estrada might take the cake as the most mentioned pitcher in this column. I'm using him against the Pirates.
Chris Archer has a spot start today and I'm using him, too.
Trevor Cahill has a solid match-up against the Padres. The only thing that would make this better is if the game were at Petco.
Pitcher (bum): Rain has made some of yesterday's bums available today, like Ricky Romero. There is also a savory sauce of alternatives like Daisuke Matsuzaka, Liam Hendriks, Chris Rusin, or Bruce Chen.
Hitter (power): Brandon Belt is a strong play against Tyler Chatwood. The rainouts make Andruw Jones useful today, too.
Hitter (speed): Norichika Aoki is stealing all kinds of bases.
Tomorrow's grind
This Thursday offers up a surprising number of interesting match-ups.
Tyler Skaggs is set to face Clayton Richard, both of whom could potentially help (or hurt) your stretch run.
Jorge de la Rosa is back from the disabled list, and his first assignment is the Giants. Don't forget about the Rockies' inconvenient pitching rules. He's more of a curiosity than someone you can play.
If you just need innings volume, I project Tyler Cloyd to be not terrible against the Mets.
Options aplenty for the discerning palate. Carlos Gomez and Andruw Jones have the platoon advantage tomorrow, and by now you know how I feel about that pair.
Some A's, including Seth Smith and Brandon Moss, could benefit from their match-up against Anibal Sanchez. In the opposing dugout, Delmon Young will look to take advantage of the platoon advantage, as well.
I'm still waiting on that Domonic Brown-versus- Jeremy Hefner match-up.
Reliever watch
Unless you desperately need saves, now is a good time to divest entirely of the Marlins messy bullpen. Steve Cishek got in trouble, Mike Dunn bailed him out, and Heath Bell later jumped aboard for the win. My scouting report on Cishek in a nutshell? He's a ROOGY, not a closer.
Kenley Jansen is back. Go dance in the streets if you own him.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves could refer back to yesterday’s table had my internet been functional yesterday morning.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Andy Pettitte is set to take a spin for the Yankees today. The Blue Jays lineup is a bit of a mess since Bautista went to the disabled list, so it's not a bad match-up for the aging lefty.
Matt Harvey has pitched very well, yet he's somehow only 41 percent owned. Against a weak Phillies lineup he could rack up some strikeouts.
Wei-Yin Chen has struggled recently, but a game against the Mariners could help him right the ship.
Pitcher (bum): Honestly, there are half a dozen bums pitching today. If you can't find one on your own, you're helpless.
But since you asked nicely, here's a list: P.J. Walters, Ricky Romero, Justin Germano, Luke Hochevar, Fernando Abad, and Jeff Francis.
Hitter (power): I miss the days when I could recommend Allen Craig. I still have Salvador Perez, which is nice, though he's not really a power hitter. And with Tyler Cloyd opposing the Mets, Lucas Duda could very well tee one up. Andruw Jones will of course be active against the aforementioned Romero.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis against Pettitte is good enough for me.
Tomorrow's grind
Everything about Marco Estrada's stat line says he's a No. 2 pitcher. When I watch him, I see a guy with some good stuff and an idea what he's doing out there. Yet his fantasy results have been underwhelming. Tomorrow he faces the Pirates.
Chris Archer is getting a spot start against the depleted Red Sox lineup.
Trevor Cahill match-ups have backfired on me this season, but he's solid and facing the Padres. I really don't know that I could ask for more in a September waiver match-up.
Norichika Aoki has been running wild in recent weeks, and with the Brewers aggressively seeking a Wild Card birth, I expect that behavior to continue.
Tyler Chatwood is not a bad pitcher, but his offspeed stuff isn't mature enough to succeed in the big leagues, especially against left-handed hitters. Brandon Belt may benefit.
When Domonic Brown first came up this year, he was fighting his front side with his swing, and it was evident that he was cutting off his power in return for a more contact-oriented approach. Clearly somebody took him aside and told him he's not in the big leagues to spray singles to all fields, because Brown is now taking some monster hacks on certain fastball counts. All of that is to say, I think he could bop a pair against Jeremy Hefner.
Reliever watch
This part of the column is coming to a close, but there are still a few useful tidbits floating around. Aroldis Chapman is expected to return soon and claims that his period of rest and recuperation was beneficial. We'll see.
Oh, and Jose Valverde blew another save. I swear he blew a dozen this year, but the stats page claims only five.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am
Monday, September 17, 2012
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• The good news: the injury that’s forced Clayton Kershaw to sit out two of his last three starts isn’t arm related. The bad news: a hip ailment might be enough to force the Dodgers to shut down their prized left-hander, who’s headed to New York to visit with a specialist.
Don Mattingly insists the team will be cautious with the 24-year-old, but he’ll obviously be a goner if he has to undergo surgery. Stephen Fife took the ball on Sunday against the Cardinals, but it’s unclear who would replace Kershaw if he has to miss some starts.
• What an awful year for Lorenzo Cain; after missing the first three months of the season with a groin injury, he now has a partial tear in his right hamstring, severe enough to nuke the rest of his season. It’s a tough break for a guy who entered 2012 as one of the American League’s most attractive sleepers, but here’s hoping he spends enough time on the field next year to make good on that promise.
• Aroldis Chapman hasn’t pitched since Sept. 10 due to a shoulder injury, and although he insists he’s feeling better, he’s probably a risky start in week 25. Jonathan Broxton last picked up a save on Tuesday, but he’d probably be the guy to grab if Chapman has to miss more time.
• Say goodbye to Cole De Vries, who was placed on the disabled list with a cracked rib and is done for the season.
• For anyone who cares, Ryan Raburn suffered a right quad strain last week and was placed on the disabled list.
• There’s nothing physically wrong with Matt Harvey, but he’ll make his last start of the season on Tuesday against the Phillies’ Tyler Cloyd due to a team-imposed innings limit.
Other bumps and bruises
• Hamstring tendinitis forced Brian McCann to leave Saturday’s game early and miss Sunday altogether, making him a risky start this week.
• A bone bruise caused by a torn sheath in his left wrist more or less nuked Michael Morse’s productivity in week 24. It’s unclear if he’ll be active for Tuesday’s game against the Dodgers.
• Edwin Encarnacion was scratched from Sunday’s game with a sore toe.
• Zack Cozart hasn’t appeared in a game in nearly two weeks as he’s dealt with a left oblique strain.
• A running drill for Corey Hart, who was testing a foot injury, reportedly didn’t go well on Sunday, making his status for week 25 extremely tenuous and raising doubts about his ability to return this season.
Road to recovery
• Mike Napoli is back, crushing a three-run homer in his return on Saturday.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 4:34am
Friday, September 14, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): You have your choice today. You can choose one of two reliable starters against a strong lineup. That's Ross Detwiler against the Braves or Hisashi Iwakuma against the Rangers.
Or you can choose one of two high upside prospects against a weak lineup. That's Tyler Skaggs versus the Giants or Andrew Cashner at Petco against the Rockies.
Pitcher (bum): You have some choices here as well. The Reds face Jacob Turner in one of the most exploitable match-ups of the day. The Tigers will see Corey Kluber.
Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes, Chris Carter, and Cody Ross are the power plays of the day.
Hitter (speed): I stick by my assertion that Will Venable is hot, even if that isn't strictly true in the last two weeks. It's all a matter of perspective. Coco Crisp is a nice alternative.
Tomorrow's grind
Phillies fans have pretty much accepted that Kyle Kendrick is now a good pitcher, but I'm not buying. He's reduced his repertoire from three pitches to two and while his command and control are very sharp at the moment, I've seen similar stretches from him in the past and they've ended in time. There's a decent chance he holds it together through the end of the season and against the Astros there's all the more reason to roll the dice.
Jenrry Mejia will be starting for the Mets against the Brewers. I wouldn't try him, but he's certainly interesting enough to mention.
What's going on with Jarrod Parker's ownership (40 percent)? He should be owned in twice that number of leagues and that statement has been true for months now. Is it because he's an Athletic?
Plenty of power choices today.
Chris Johnson will get some hacks against Barry Zito. Elsewhere, Gomes, Carter and Crisp will be at it against another lefty opponent in Zach Britton.
Carlos Ruiz is surprisingly over-owned for a guy who starts every couple of days—53 percent. However, I'm told he is expected to start today and Sunday and he doesn't seem to have missed a beat during his time off. He will join John Mayberry Jr. with a strong match-up against Dallas Keuchel.
Maybe you're saying, I need a speedster. I have a hunch that Quintin Berry will get the start against Justin Masterson.
Reliever watch
Joe Nathan blew his second save of the season, which at this late stage is probably all I need to say. Nevertheless, I will specifically state that Nathan's job is very secure.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am
Recap: Brandon League appeared in three one-run victories by the Dodgers in his past five games, with two saves and a win to show for it... Ronald Belisario seems to be the superior pitcher—more ground balls, more biting sliders that League nowadays lacks, and a faster fastball—but League has the experience that Dodgers manager Don Mattinglyapparently assigns heavy weight to... Hope you picked up the former despite my recommendation... John Mayberry has been excellent in September, but unfortunately, his home runs have turned into doubles... He’ll hit a few more down the stretch run, and the plate discipline displayed this month (nine walks in 40 at-bats, compared to 20 in his previous 336 at-bats) is both unexpected and welcomed... Yasmani Grandal’s managed a single home run since we last chatted, and Jimmy Paredes only a single stolen base.
Meanwhile, Casey Kelly’s been a bona fide disaster since his debut... Two home runs surrendered at Coors Field: acceptable; three home runs surrendered at PETCO Park: inexcusable... Opponents have pounded the following pitches over the fence against Kelly: a change-up slightly up from the center of the zone that caught a good deal of the plate ( Tyler Colvin), a fastball down the middle that caught a good deal of the plate ( Ramon Hernandez), a fastball low and inside that still caught a good deal of the plate ( Jason Kubel), a waist-high fastball that caught a good deal of the plate ( Aaron Hill), and a hanging curveball that caught a good deal of the plate... I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest that Casey Kelly should try to pitch more to the corners of the zone...
For this week, let’s try something new. How about we go category-by-category? No recommendations, no upside plays: you decide where you need the most help in the stretch run, and you target these guys for help.
Runs
Chris Denorfia | Padres | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 4.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 48 runs in 300 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 14 games
Scrappy and speedy, Denorfia won’t play every day, but might be your best bet to squeak a few runs out of the waiver wire. He’s tallied a run scored in six out of his last seven starts (all coming in September), scoring multiple times in three of those games. The Padres, by the way, are managing 5.72 runs a game in the current month, and Denorfia is the benefactor as the leadoff man. When he plays, he scores.
Mark Ellis | Dodgers | 2B | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 3.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 57 runs in 351 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Six runs in 13 games
With Dee Gordon relegated to the bench as a result of the Hanley Ramirez Experiment, Mark Ellis has assumed leadoff duties. The Dodgers offense is stagnant as can be—13 runs in their last seven games—but in the past week, the team has a batting average on balls in play of .237. Roll the dice on the luck correcting itself, and those middle-of-the-order guys in blue driving Ellis home.
Stolen bases
Justin Maxwell | Astros | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: Eight steals, 14 homers in 255 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Two steals, two homers in 13 games
Maxwell is finding himself with more and more playing time as the Astros hold auditions for 2013, and his power/speed platter should help plenty of owners with just a single switch. In these messy days of the season, he might be unclaimed or ignored: don’t let it stay that way.
Home runs
Scott Hairston | Mets | OF | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 17 home runs in 318 at-bats
ZiPS ROS: Two home runs in 13 games
The notable lefty-masher should be inserted into some lineups every day: he’s hit three pinch hit home runs, 10 off of lefties, and two in his three games this week. Skill is of secondary importance in the final days; a hot masher who could hit a few more long balls by season’s end is a more valuable commodity than some realize.
Wins
Edgar Gonzalez | Astros | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.9 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: Two wins in two starts
ZiPS ROS: Zero wins in one start
Having an able-working body is more than three-fourths of the game at this point. Unless you’re within striking distance in the ratio categories, why not deploy every starter you can get your hands on? A blowup will hardly make a mark. Take that into consideration when using Gonzalez, who has a shoddy track record from 41 previous major league starts (a near-six ERA) but has flashed an improved slider and control in his two starts thus far with the Astros (both wins). Why not roll the dice?
Strikeouts
Jeff Francis | Rockies | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 0.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 67 strikeouts in 95 innings
ZiPS ROS: Nine strikeouts in 13 innings
With the above point in mind, look at Francis, who's upped his strikeout per nine innings ratio in each month. In September, his ERA of 7.30 is only slightly lower than his 11.68 strikeout per nine innings ratio. Such a rate won’t continue, but there's no harm in seeing if Francis' mixed bag won't produce another dozen or so strikeouts amidst the runs on runs on runs.
Andrew Werner | Padres | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership | 5.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 23 strikeouts in 24-plus innings
ZiPS ROS: N/A
A superior option to Francis, Werner isn’t likely available in many still-competitive leagues. If he is, though, pounce without hesitation; opponents have yet to figure out Werner’s tricks. He generates ground balls, pounds the strike zone early, and throws a sneaky-deceptive mix of a slider, four-seamer, curveball and changeup. Six strikeouts or more in his past three starts is eye-catching; why not see if he can continue the streak?
Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:50am
Thursday, September 13, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Today's a big start for Wei-Yin Chen against the Rays. The O's are in a dog fight for first with the Yankees, while the Rays have fallen to three games back.
Phil Hughes is 53 percent owned, but his match-up against the depleted Red Sox should reap some rewards.
Tyler Cloyd is underwhelming and he's pitching on short rest, but the Astros offense is particularly pitiful these days.
Pitcher (bum): Liam Hendriks against the Royals. Need I explain myself?
Honorable mention goes to Fernando Abad against the white hot Phillies.
Hitter (power): I'm crossing my fingers that the Phillies throw Darin Ruf a start against the left-handed Abad. Andruw Jones is also on the docket with Felix Doubront opposing.
Hitter (speed): Ben Revere, Denard Span and Alcides Escobar round out the speed crew today.
Tomorrow's grind
There are four solid options to choose from today. A couple are solid pitchers against good lineups, like Ross Detwiler against the Braves and Hisashi Iwakuma versus the Rangers. And a the other two are inconsistent youngsters who have great talent—namely Tyler Skaggs against the Giants and Andrew Cashner at Petco against the Rockies.
It's been awhile since I've gotten to use Jonny Gomes around these parts. Teammates Chris Carter and Coco Crisp join him in a solid match-up.
Will Venable is hot these days and Tyler Chatwood is not. That combination could result in some stolen bases.
Cody Ross is owned at a 43 percent rate, but his match-up against Aaron Laffey is first rate if he's available.
Reliever watch
Nothing to see here.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am
Wednesday, September 12, 2012
The nitty gritty is upon us. Over the past few weeks, I’ve stressed the importance of grinding out points and scraping the margins for the extra handful of stats that can steal the point or two you may need to win your league. Here at THT Fantasy, we often preach the advantages to be gained from getting the best of your players, especially those toward the end of your roster. To achieve this—like a real manager—you must populate your lineup spots with players who are in a position to succeed.
Stolen bases is often a close category, where a team that is able to manufacture a mini-surge at the end of a season can climb multiple points in the standings. I spent some time this week looking at catchers who are best at preventing stolen bases as well as most teams’ end-of-season schedules (starting from next Monday). Marginal basestealers, of whom there are often several on your waiver wire, can become full-fledged speedsters against teams inept at stopping the running game. Players whose stats may lead you to think are helpful in the steal category often turn shy against the Yadier Molinas and Miguel Monteros of the world.
First, for those of you motivated enough to drop and add by series, here are my list of red light and green light teams.
Red light:
Arizona Diamondbacks
St. Louis Cardinals
Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
Baltimore Orioles
Los Angeles Dodgers
These six teams all have ostensible everyday catchers who are adept at controlling the running game. Baltimore and Los Angeles aren’t as proficient as the teams above them, but they are certainly good enough to force non-elite speedsters and their managers to think twice.
Green light
Houston
Pittsburgh
Boston
Minnesota
Chicago (A)
New York (A)
Cleveland
New York (N)
Texas
*San Francisco
Many of these teams have a catcher-by-committee approach, but don’t worry about who is behind the dish when in most of these cases all options are unable to protect against the steal. The top four teams in this list strike me as the absolute worst in the league at stopping the running game.
I’ve included San Francisco with an asterisk because while Buster Posey has thrown out a very respectable 28.6 percent of base stealers this year, teams run an awful lot against the Giants (perhaps because of their ballpark and pitching staff, which compel teams to try to “manufacture” runs). So, while rate isn’t particularly favorable there, volume seems to be on your side.
Big picture
For those less willing to micromanage and would rather pick up a player or two off the wire and run with them, here are a few things I noticed when looking at overall schedules and how they may affect one’s ability to steal a few steals.
- Colorado, the Cubs and Washington all have three series against “red light” teams. Marginal basestealers on those teams should be avoided, generally speaking.
- St. Louis has two series against Houston and will be in a playoff race. Marginal base stealers may see an uptick in swipes.
- The Orioles will be giving it their all and play two series against Boston. This represents an opportunity for part-time thieves in Baltimore.
- Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Oakland and Toronto both play three of their final five series against “green light” teams.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 2:12am
Tuesday, September 11, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday's table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Marco Estrada is back with yet another chance to impress me. I keep giving him chances and he keeps turning in middling performances. He'll be facing the Braves today, so he's far from a lock for strong production.
Dan Straily is back on the bump after nearly a month-long hiatus from the majors. He's had two strong outings and one poor one thus far, so it will be interesting to see how he does against a potent offense like the Angels.
Pitcher (bum): Ubaldo Jimenez is a shadow of his former self, and the Rangers will get an opportunity to see if they can hit shadows.
Maybe I've been watching too many Phillies games, but I have this feeling that Nathan Eovaldi is not going to have a pleasant experience tonight.
Hitter (power): Seth Smith is back in the game and will be up against Jerome Williams. Brandon Moss will also benefit from that match-up.
Column favorite Andruw Jones draws Jon Lester today.
I like the idea of Brandon Belt in Colorado.
Hitter (speed): If you truly have the need for speed, I recommend Coco Crisp. If what you really need is a well rounded player who might swipe a bag, take a look at David Murphy.
Tomorrow's grind
Alex Cobb is another guy I keep trying only to receive mediocre results. The Orioles are a solid match-up for the Rays and the series has playoff implications, which is doubly interesting.
A.J. Griffin has certainly impressed thus far, and he turned in another great outing last week in his return from the disabled list.
Clayton Richard and the Padres have been surging. They'll look to play spoiler to the Cardinals this week.
It's a busy day for hitters.
Smith, Moss and Crisp return tomorrow, although Ervin Santana has performed very well over the past month.
Carlos Gomez has the platoon advantage on his side against a weak pitcher. Ditto for David Murphy and Scott Hairston.
The Tigers, Twins and Royals are all facing flammable pitchers.
Reliever watch
A month later, the Astros listened to me and released Francisco Cordero.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am
SUPREME COURT OF FANTASY JUDGMENT
Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies
ON PETITION FOR WRIT OF CERTIORARI FROM THE INCONTINENT LEAGUE
Decided September 1, 2012
Cite as 4 F.J. 233 (September 2012)
Factual Background
A rotisserie fantasy baseball league called The Incontinent League (hereinafter referred to as “roto league” or “IL” is an 11-team NL-only keeper league utilizing an auction-style draft and transaction platform. Teams are permitted to maintain up to ten (10) players during each off-season with individual players allowed to be kept for a maximum of three (3) consecutive years under contract. Each team is also permitted to keep two minor league players which are in addition to the ten players kept. This roto league also has a $26.00 draft salary cap, as well as a $36.00 in-season salary cap that is applicable for all teams.
As with many rotisserie leagues, the Incontinent League uses the standard 5×5 scoring categories to determine the standings and prize money. For offensive players, the five categories are: (1) batting average; (2) homeruns; (3) runs batted in; (4) runs scored; and (5) stolen bases. For pitchers, the five categories are: (1) wins; (2) earned run average; (3) WHIP (walks+hits/innings pitched); (4) strikeouts; and (5) saves. Statistics are cumulative throughout the course of the season and there are no head to head games contained within the Roto league.
The Incontinent League submitted a proposed trade between two league members and seeks an opinion on whether the trade should be approved.
Procedural History
Nub Vader has made a trade with the 4 Ponies. Nub Vader traded Dee Gordon (SS-LAD, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Anthony Rizzo ($0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Andrelton Simmons (SS-ATL, $1.00 in the first year of his existing contract), Devin Mesoraco (C-CIN, $0.50 in the first year of his existing contract) and Jacob Turner (SP-MIA, $0.50 minor league salary) to the 4 Ponies in exchange for Wilin Rosario (C-COL, $0.50 with one year remaining on his existing contract), Michael Fiers (SP-MIL, $0.50 in the first year of his existing contract), Tyler Colvin (OF-COL, $0.20 in the first year of his existing contract) and Oscar Taveras (OF-STL, $0.50 minor league salary).
Issue Presented
(1) Should the trade between Nub Vader and the 4 Ponies be approved?
Decision
The Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment typically favors individual fantasy sports participants and teams’ ability to make moves, transactions, and trades. People pay money to participate in fantasy leagues, and generally they should be afforded the freedom to manage their team accordingly. Whether success is bred from that individual’s decision-making is purely left to some skill, luck, dedication, and savviness. See 4 Ponies v. Carson City Cocks, 3 F.J. 13 (May 2011).
It is well documented that there is a different analysis of trades in a keeper league as opposed to a non-keeper league. A trade that may look facially uneven or lopsided could easily pass muster in a keeper league. Trades made between teams in a keeper league need to be analyzed by other factors besides merely comparing statistics. Grave Diggers vs. Chilidogs, 4 F.J. 5, 8 (January 2012). These other factors include salary cap flexibility, contractual status of players, and long-term planning at the expense of the current season. Smittydogs vs. Moneyball, 1 F.J. 32, 33 (June 2010); Winners vs. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011) (holding that team owners in keeper leagues with no hope of contending in the current season must make critical roster management decisions of whether to trade established players to help build for the future).
The Court will evaluate the objective merits of a deal and ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. See Victoria’s Secret vs. C-Train, 2 F.J. 32, 35 (October 2010). The Court will not undermine a fantasy owner’s ability to manage his/her team unless a deal is unfair or inequitable, ripe with collusion, or not in the best interests of the league. Whether a trade is objectively intelligent or popular will not be part of the analysis. 4 Ponies vs. Beaver Hunters, 3 F.J. 26, 27 (June 2011). The virtue of a trade is measured in both quantifiable criteria and subjective needs of the teams involved. Carson City Cocks vs. Stud Muffins, 3 F.J. 23, 24 (May 2011).
No evidence has been submitted indicating any alleged collusion or malfeasance. As such, the Court will operate on the presumption that there is no collusive conduct between the parties.
At first glance, the trade of Dee Gordon, Anthony Rizzo, Andrelton Simmons, Devin Mesoraco and Jacob Turner in exchange for Wilin Rosario, Michael Fiers, Tyler Colvin and Oscar Taveras looks fair and equitable. None of the players involved in this deal are considered elite for purposes of requiring additional scrutiny merely because of how valuable they are based on their statistics and name recognition See Steelers vs. Patriots, 3 F.J. 216, 220 (November 2011). However, several of these players are stars with significant value.
This trade represents two teams who have already punted the current season after previous trades they have made, including with each other. See Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 122 (July 2012). When a team owner in a keeper league no longer has any hope for contending in the current season, he must make a critical roster management decision of whether to trade off established players in an attempt to build for the future. Winners v. Seven Shades of Shite, 3 F.J. 97, 102 (July 2011). This trade demonstrates an ability for two rebuilding teams to satisfy each other’s needs in a non-remarkable manner.
The best player in this trade is arguably Anthony Rizzo, who is now being traded back to the 4 Ponies only after being acquired less than two months before. See Nub Vader vs. 4 Ponies, 4 F.J. 122 (July 2012). The Court notes the record is devoid of any rules in the Incontinent League which prohibits tradebacks. Tradebacks are defined as trades made between two teams whereby a player is returned directly to the team that previously traded him from the team he was directly traded to. The Court also notes that it is common for fantasy leagues to prohibit this type of transaction in order to prevent a “player rental” scenario. Given that the rules are silent about this, it will not factor in the analysis of the trade itself.
The rest of the players involved are all relatively young and unproven commodities with different degrees of upside. Rosario has displayed impressive power for a catcher with 23 homeruns, but Mesoraco is certainly equitable compensation for him when considering his potential. Despite platooning most of the season and not having great offensive numbers, Mesoraco is the catcher of the future for the Reds and should become more consistent over time.
Jacob Turner was a highly-touted prospect with the Tigers before being dealt to Miami earlier in the season. He will get an opportunity to entrench himself as a fixture in the Marlins’ rotation as they attempt to establish an identity going forward. In exchange, Nub Vader acquires Michael Fiers who has been a pleasant surprise on a disappointing Milwaukee Brewers team. Fiers has amassed 8 wins with a 2.85 ERA and is averaging over a strikeout per inning.
Andrelton Simmons was very impressive in his time with the Braves before sustaining an injury which derailed his season. He replaced an unproductive Tyler Pastornicky and should be given the chance to establish himself as the Braves shortstop of the future. But the biggest question mark in this trade is arguably Dee Gordon. Gordon was given the everyday shortstop job but did not produce anything offensively, and then his fielding skills suffered. Blessed with tremendous speed, Gordon could not get on base enough to sustain fantasy value with stolen bases. Then Gordon got hurt and Los Angeles acquired Hanley Ramirez to take over at shortstop. The plan going forward is to leave Ramirez there which means Gordon is likely going to end up back in the minors or get traded.
When analyzing the fairness and equity of a trade, the Court will consider each team’s individual needs to assess whether the trade subjectively made sense from each team’s perspective. See Cajon Crawdads vs. Carson City Cocks, 1 F.J. 41, 42 (June 2010) (upholding a trade for Jason Bay because of the Carson City Cocks’ desperate need for a starting outfielder due to the demotion of Cameron Maybin). This trade makes sense for both teams. The players included in both packages have upside and are relatively inexpensive in terms of fantasy salary cap value so that neither team is handcuffed with a burdensome contract.
A trade will be rejected when the Court cannot objectively ascertain any benefit to one of the teams and the net result in no way makes a team better now or in the future. Los Pollos Hermanos v. Little Stumps, 3 F.J. 192, 195 (October 2011). As previously discussed, the trade includes a plethora of young players with upside. Both teams assume the same risks involved with unproven talent, but there is enough talent included to make it worth the exchange.
The difference in salary cap with this trade is $1.30 which is negligible for both teams. This deal epitomizes trades that are made in keeper leagues where teams decide to either compete for the current season or look to build for the future. The value of the players involved is commensurate with both teams’ needs. Based on the foregoing reasons, the Court hereby decides that the subject trade should be approved as it comports with the best interests of the league.
IT IS SO ORDERED.
Posted by Michael Stein at 4:53am
Monday, September 10, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): It feels weird to keep recommending Kyle Kendrick. The Marlins have a dreadful offense, so the match-up is right, but I'm eventually going to get egg on my face.
Opposing Kendrick is Wade LeBlanc, who basically has the same story. He's a low strikeout guy who's performed much better than expected recently.
I like Jarrod Parker, so I'll recommend him against the Angels again.
Pitcher (bum): A few of the Rockies' best relievers will be out today after yesterday's doubleheader. With Alex White on a 75-pitch count, the Giants need only knock him out early and get to the soft underbelly of call-ups.
Usually it brings me much joy to point out when Chris Volstad is starting, but the Astros' lineup is singularly uninspiring. They've scored the fewest runs in baseball, mostly because they hired half their team off the street.
Dallas Keuchel opposes Volstad and you know what? It's kind of the same story. The Cubs are the second most terribad offense.
Hitter (power): John Mayberry Jr. didn't have a big doubleheader, but he's a hot commodity right now and he'll have the platoon advantage tomorrow. He puts up good numbers versus lefties.
Ryan Doumit will face Justin Masterson. He's had some past issues with lefty power hitters although Doumit is hardly Babe Ruth.
Hitter (speed): Have I ever mentioned this guy whose bandwagon I drive? His name is Carlos Gomez and he has the platoon advantage tomorrow.
Ben Revere and Denard Span also face Masterson from the left side. We'll see if they can reach base and swipe a few.
Tomorrow's grind
You have options, but they don't have great match-ups.
First up is Marco Estrada, who will face the curiously productive Braves. I've yet to figure out why that lineup is scoring runs since it's the same bland group of guys as the last two years.
Jhoulys Chacin against the Giants combines one of my favorite waiver guys with a palatable match-up. Unfortunately, that 75-pitch limit really ruins things.
The Angels have some key contributors slumping and Dan Straily will hope that continues tomorrow.
I skipped Andruw Jones the last couple times he's shown up, but against Jon Lester he should be a good start.
Garrett Jones is over-owned for this column, but I've seen him in a couple leagues. It's worth noting that Travis Snider would be a good option if he wasn't banged up. So don't pick up Travis Snider for tomorrow.
I half expect Brandon Belt to conclude the season with some solid production. Similar to above, Angel Pagan is owned by too many people, but I forgot to remove him from the table.
I'm going to climb out on my thinnest limb and whisper the name Brett Jackson...
...and then leap down to a sturdier limb and suggest David Murphy.
Reliever watch
Alfredo Aceves is being stretched out to start, so grab Andrew Bailey while you can. I was saying they should do this weeks ago (right around when I noticed Aaron Cook was still taking regular turns).
Addison Reed is kind of imploding down the stretch. With Hector Santiago in the rotation and Matt Thornton overexposed as the ninth inning man, Brett Myers could see the save opportunities down the stretch. Reed still has the makings of an elite reliever long term.
Someone let Heath Bell (cough*Ozzie*) onto the field where he proceeded to cough up the lead. Color me surprised. While you're doing that, describe to me how one colors another surprised. I imagine a heady mix of blues and yellows and reds.
Chris Perez is gurgling about being traded and the Indians ownership will likely oblige. Perez may have a rude awakening when a first-division team uses him as a middle reliever.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Nick Markakis fractured his thumb on Saturday, which will torpedo his season at least through the rest of this month.
• It’s official: Stephen Strasburg is done for 2012. The heated controversy behind his shutdown aside, John Lannan (2-0, 3.46 ERA, 4.8 K/9 in two starts) will take his spot in the rotation.
• Speaking of shutdowns, say goodbye to Cubs breakout star Jeff Samardzija, who finished his season on Saturday with a strong complete-game win against the Pirates.
• Considering the Red Sox’s chronic misfortunes this year, it doesn’t sound as if there’s a need to rush back David Ortiz, who’s still suffering from a right Achilles’ strain.
• J.A. Happ fractured his right foot and won’t be returning in 2012. Expect the Blue Jays to plug the rotation spot with Brandon Morrow, who last week made his first start since June and pitched six strong innings.
• Chad Billingsley is looking at Tommy John surgery after a MRI revealed a partially torn ligament in his right elbow.
• It doesn’t sound as if Franklin Morales will be returning this season due to a sore shoulder.
Other bumps and bruises
• Jake Westbrook is suffering from a strained right oblique and will miss at least his next start. As of Sunday, the team did not announce his replacement, though Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller are logical options.
Road to recovery
• Look for Troy Tulowitzki to return to major league action this week after missing more than three months with a left groin injury. When he returns, it sounds as if Josh Rutledge will move over to second base.
• Ivan Nova is back from a shoulder injury, but it appears as if he’ll pitch out of the bullpen in the immediate term. He’ll likely return to the starting rotation soon enough, so it comes down to him either bumping Freddy Garcia or David Phelps out of a job (as of Sunday, Phelps looked like the leading candidate to lose his rotation spot).
• The Blue Jays got Brett Lawrie and J.P. Arencibia back last week.
• Jason Hammel looked strong in his return from knee surgery last week, pitching into the sixth inning while allowing just one run against the Yankees on Friday.
• Starling Marte returned over the weekend from an oblique injury.
• Indians third baseman Lonnie Chisenhall rejoined the team on Sunday after missing two months with a fractured wrist.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:03am
Friday, September 07, 2012
What we've learned since the last time we touched base ... Pedro Ciriaco has come back down to Earth in a big way, hitting just .118 over the past week ... Andrew Bailey converted his first save opportunity since "officially" becoming the Red Sox closer ... Dice-K got torched in his start against the A's ... David Phelps gave up six walks in less than five innings against the Orioles ... and looking even further back in the archives, our old friend Zach Britton is helping the Orioles spook the Yankees down the stretch.
Josh Donaldson | Oakland A’s | 3B/C | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 12.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .226 / .262 / .395
ZiPS ROS: .213 / .273 / .361
No one considers Brandon Inge to be indispensable, but the veteran third baseman was helping the A’s on their way to what’s been a strong enough second half to keep them in the postseason conversation. So it was a tough break for both Inge and Oakland when the 35-year-old went down with a shoulder injury last month, one severe enough to require season-ending surgery.
That’s when Josh Donaldson took over. A catcher by trade, Donaldson, 26, learned third base entering the 2012 season, and wasn’t impressive in two major league stints in the season’s first half. But he hit .335 with 13 home runs in 234 plate appearances while down in the Pacific Coast League, and was sent for when Inge went down in mid-August.
For Donaldson, a former first-round pick, the third time around this season was most definitely the charm. The right-handed hitter has smoked a .316/.379/.595 line with five home runs since Aug. 14, when he became the team’s regular third baseman. Using the same bat as fellow under-the-radar traveler Chris Carter, Donaldson has allowed the A’s to use his power at third while giving Derek Norris playing time in the wake of Kurt Suzuki’s trade.
Donaldson’s OPS is about 70 points higher against lefties than righties, which is worth keeping in mind for week 24, when the only southpaws he faces are Joe Saunders and a hot Zach Britton. But you can’t argue with the usefulness of a player who can plug holes at both third and catcher, and considering his widespread availability, he’s probably the best available option at those positions in deeper leagues.
Recommendation: Worth a look in AL-only leagues so long as he’s hitting well.
Delmon Young | Detroit Tigers | OF | 37 percent Yahoo ownership; 63.4 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .277 / .308 / .438
ZiPS ROS: .278 / .313 / .433
Best part of drafting Young? There’s a good chance he won’t have to miss time this month to attend High Holy Day services. OK, seriously, Young has been smashing the cowhide recently, and although he’s never quite lived up to the lofty expectations he had entering the big leagues in 2006 (or the 2010 form that produced 21 home runs and 112 RBIs), he’s still useful, and will likely surpass 20 home runs and put up around 80 ribbies, so it’s not like he’s having a bad season.
But as the season enters its last month, his value has really started to flourish considering how hot he is right now. Entering Thursday’s action, Young was hitting .371/.405/.857 with four home runs since Aug. 26, the soon-to-be 27-year-old has posted a nearly 80-point improvement in OPS in the second half.
Lastly, in case anyone needs reminding, let’s not forget where Young hangs his hat every day: a lineup spot right after Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. That kind of protection and opportunity has to be worth something, especially now that the fantasy season is on the line. Find out if Young is still being overlooked in your league and introduce him to the rest of your fantasy roster.
Recommendation: Worth picking up in deeper mixed leagues.
Samuel Deduno | Minnesota Twins | SP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.3 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: 3.66 ERA / 1.500 WHIP / 5.9 K/9
ZiPS ROS: 5.25 ERA / 1.83 WHIP / 6.75 K/9
Let’s start with Deduno’s best qualification for being on this list: He’s lined up for two starts in week 24, one against the abysmal Justin Masterson and the sorry Indians, and another against the White Sox and a starter to be decided. But here’s the best part: both starts are at Target Field, where Deduno, 29, is 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA, 1.184 WHIP and 9.2 K/9.
A native of the Dominican Republic, Deduno was signed by the Rockies in 2003 and entered this season as a guy who had all of 5.2 major league innings under his belt. But the Twins, desperate for pitching and not a whole lot to lose, called him up in early July, and since then, he’s allowed four runs or more in just two of his 11 starts.
He’s just below a 6 K/9 rate, and features a swinging strike rate (7.2) that’s below league average, but was able to put together a better than strikeout-per-inning clip in more than 780 minor league innings, which provides hope for the rest of 2012 and beyond. Plus, he’s throwing out grounders like a man on a mission, posting a 56.6 ground ball percentage this season, which has allowed him to brush aside a high 15.8 HR/FB rate.
True, he’s prospered partially on the strength of a soft .270 BABIP, his nearly 80 percent strand rate will probably catch up to him before the season is out, and his FIP (5.12) and xFIP (4.78) look down on his spiffy ERA. But those two match-ups are tempting, especially during the fantasy playoff crunch time.
Recommendation: Worth a pickup in AL-only leagues and some deeper mixed leagues.
Mark Reynolds | Baltimore Orioles | 1B / 3B | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 49.6 percent ESPN ownership
YTD: .232 / .350 / .447
ZiPS ROS: .228 / .337 / .468
Like pretty much everything associated with the Baltimore Orioles right now, Reynolds is on fire, having crushed six home runs and a 1.174 OPS over the past six games (excluding Thursday night’s action). At this point, you already know that harboring the 29-year-old slugger is going to leave you awash in strikeouts, and he’s typically a very streaky player, but he’s capable of putting up monster stretches.
Will week 24 be one of them? He has to play against the pitching staffs of the Rays and A’s, and has to play three games in pitcher-happy Oakland to boot, so he’s got his work cut out for him. Still, he’s on pace to post the best walk rate (14.3 percent) and strikeout rate (30.3 percent) of his career, and even though he has “only” 18 home runs, his corner eligibility should make him attractive enough for a look in deeper leagues—even if he can be expected to stay hot for only so long.
Recommendation: Reynolds’ streaky history makes me wonder how much longer he can keep it up, but then again, the Orioles seem to be riding a magic wave right now. Worth a look in AL-only leagues this week.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:29am
Thursday, September 06, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Definitely Marco Estrada against the Marlins. That's a good match-up on any day and today it's a great match-up.
I think you can get away with using David Phelps, but he's a definite step down from Estrada.
Pitcher (bum): Justin Germano is an organizational soldier, not a major league starting pitcher. He's out there to absorb innings and it wouldn't shock me if the Nationals battered him.
The Rangers vs. Royals features Scott Feldman vs. Luke Hochevar. That sounds like a high scoring game in the making.
Hitter (power): For power, Raul Ibanez and Tyler Colvin take top honors for the day. They both have the platoon advantage against decent pitchers.
Hitter (speed): David Murphy and Alcides Escobar might be the best plays for speed today/
Tomorrow's grind
Late night action will provide the tolerable pitching match-ups.
Tyler Skaggs is set to oppose Andrew Cashner at Petco in a game that makes no promises. Both pitchers are very talented and very much unpolished, so anything could happen. I'm using both throughout my various leagues.
A.J. Griffin is back from the disabled list to face the Mariners (which is good) and Felix Hernandez (which is not)
Our old favorite, Rajai Davis, is back with the platoon advantage.
The Twins have a lovely match-up against Jeanmar Gomez that could result in a whole heap of runs.
I like the Phillies against Jeff Francis, especially Erik Kratz and John Mayberry. Both hitters are among the hottest in baseball.
Reliever watch
All's quiet in the trenches.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:57am
Wednesday, September 05, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Mike Minor has his share of warts, but a match-up against the Rockies at Turner Field should turn out pretty well.
Aaron Harang is rarely impressive. Against the Padres he doesn't have to be.
The Brewers' TBA turned out to be Wily Peralta. I definitely recommend him against the limp-batted Marlins.
Pitcher (bum): Chris Volstad is chief among bums today with his match-up against the Nationals. There is the usual range of alternative options including Alex White against the Braves and P.J. Walters against the White Sox.
Hitter (power): Dan Haren is not himself lately and Brandon Moss stands to benefit. Take a look at Cody Ross while you're at it.
Hitter (speed): For some reason, I expect Angel Pagan to reach base repeatedly and maybe swipe a bag today. I'm not as confident about Coco Crisp, but he's more likely to make an attempt if he reaches base. Norichika Aoki has a good running match-up, so keep an eye on him as well.
Tomorrow's grind
Tomorrow might be the first truly Thin Thursday of the season. Only five games will be played, weather permitting.
And of those five, I love Marco Estrada's match-up against the Marlins. He's only 18 percent owned too.
David Phelps against the Orioles is probably playable, but that's all I can say in his favor.
Prepare for Tiny Table.
Not much to look at, eh?
Raul Ibanez has a decent match-up if Jason Hammel isn't sharp. Tyler Colvin against Tim Hudson is the other match-up that jumps out as palatable.
Reliever watch
Nothing much to see here.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:52am
As fantasy players, why are we more willing to overlook some flaws than others? This was a question I came across in a discussion regarding players like Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn. Those of us who tend to prioritize power a bit more than average are indeed guilty of seeing the glass half full for some and half empty for others. However, this isn’t a blind or arbitrary preference, as some who question this bias would have you believe.
In advance of true keeper talk, I’d like to present a few reasons why hitching yourself to the power cart is a sensible strategy.
Home run hitters drive Cadillacs
Deciding how to react to group-think can be tricky in fantasy baseball. As a veteran player, one might be tempted to see the value in zigging when everybody else zags. So, if I were to tell you that you should value power highly because others do, you might think that I’m flying right in the face of the statistical bent and market pressure point identification style of analysis for which THT is known and respected. But, it’s not that simple…
For one, unlike actual baseball, in fantasy baseball there are fewer routes to victory. You can’t just decide that batting average is the cheapest category in which to buy advantage and thus triple down on that commodity to create enough added value to win. Fantasy baseball doesn’t work that way; it inherently values balance. Even in H2H leagues, you need to dominate several categories to win. In roto leagues, you need to be near the top of every category to win. This leads to two conclusions.
First, you have to buy enough power to be competitive. This means you have to consider power at a premium if others do. If you fall too far behind in this category early into your roster, it’s difficult to make up the differential.
Second, this is a closed market. So, one category is underpriced because another is overpriced. And, since you and your competitors all have the same amount of resources to purchase your commodities, you can still get the batting average you need at a cost-effective price point even if you go along with the market and overspend for power.
The old standby
If you look at the waiver wire in a standard size league, it’s very hard to find a player who will provide even the average amount of power you need, per roster spot, to compete for a championship. Looking at a few of my 12-team leagues, at this point in the season, a team needs to average in the range of 17 homers per roster spot to be in the upper third of that category. At the same time, a batting average in the low .270s can get your there in that category.
Predictably and stemming from the first point of discussion in this article, there aren’t any players on the waiver wire in any of my 12-team leagues with 18 or more homers. The point is that if I want to improve my team’s batting average or even find a player better than championship roster slot average at that category, I can find that for free. I can alter my team’s make-up in this direction at no cost, should I deem it prudent to do so. Retooling in the opposite direction will cost you. And, post-trade- eadline, it’s essentially impossible.
This is critical to understand because it can be difficult to assemble a team that is strong in all categories throughout the season. Often, a team will have to retool a bit and strategically change its strengths at certain points in the season to reach an outcome that will ultimately achieve balanced performance across each category. Knowing which types of retooling are easier to achieve than others and how to get from one set of strengths to another is an important part of the fantasy GM’s toolkit. Personally, I learned the importance of this knowledge and sharpened my abilities to implement such strategies in fantasy basketball leagues, where some categories are ostensibly antithetical to others—turnovers/assist, or three-pointers/field goal percentage.
You always want to be going from a team skilled in the expensive stats to a team skilled in the cheap stats. You can buy a lot of less dense batting average for a 35-homer bat.
The power of predictability... of power
While both the players I referenced as archetypal power monsters and batting average killers have suffered power outages one of the past two seasons, power is generally predictable from season to season—more so than batting average.
This is effect is magnified in H2H leagues, where a team’s true skill in a category may not lead to actual wins week to week. Power skills are more predictive of actual weekly wins in the HR category than batting average strength is of categorical wins.
As you are deciding which of your marginal players to start in your playoff push weeks, I’d suggest reading Michael Lerra’s great article on weekly category influence from 2008.
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 4:38am
Tuesday, September 04, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today's grind
Those in leagues with same-day moves should refer back to yesterday’s table.
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): I feel a little silly recommend Kyle Kendrick, but the options are thin today and he's been getting the job done. I'd much rather use Jarrod Parker—even against the Angels—but his ownership rate is much higher than Kendrick's.
Pitcher (bum): There are some players in the Tigers lineup who should hit Justin Masterson pretty hard. Likewise for the Rangers and Jeremy Guthrie.
Hitter (power): Scott Hairston and Tyler Colvin have fair match-ups today against Jaime Garcia and Tommy Hanson respectively. Both pitchers are usually good but appear to be suffering from injury induced funks. Let's call David Murphy against Guthrie a power hitter since he fits neither category squarely.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis has the platoon advantage against the Orioles and Carlos Gomez can boast the same advantage versus Miami.
Tomorrow's grind
Mike Minor is supposedly owned in only 39 percent of leagues, but I've seen no sign of him in any of mine. In any case, I like him to put up big numbers at home against the Rockies. I also have a gut feeling he's going to be the next Javier Vazquez/ Ricky Nolasco to saber-friendly fantasy owners.
Aaron Harang against the Padres is a fine match-up.
I'm tempted to recommend the Brewers' TBA. Whoever it is will face a terrible Marlins lineup.
It's not often I point to Mariners hitters, but give the above a try tomorrow. Failing that, Brandon Moss will face an unrecognizable Dan Haren and for some reason I think the Giants might get to Trevor Cahill. The latter is one of those intuitive hunches that is really just me talking out of my bum.
Reliever watch
J.J. Putz blew the save yesterday. At this point in the season, I'm tempted to say it's too late to expect them to install David Hernandez, who I have patiently stashed for most of the season believing him to be the superior pitcher. Put him on your short list for next year.
Luke Gregerson also blew the save. Unlike with Putz, the closer situation is settled in San Diego, assuming Huston Street is ever healthy.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:01am
It’s hard enough following one’s own fantasy team without having to keep track of an entire sport’s daily transactions. To assist you, here’s a column dedicated to recapping the most notable trades, signings, promotions, demotions and role changes across the majors over the past week as they relate to fantasy. We'll do this on a weekly basis. If you feel I've missed anything important, please don't hesitate to keep the conversation going in the comments below.
Fantasy infirmary
• Fantasy owners who reaped the rewards of Kenley Jansen’s strong season as the Dodgers’ closer likely knew about the 24-year-old’s history with an irregular heartbeat problem, but couldn’t turn down the 25 saves and 13.7 K/9 rate. But the problem, which has cost Jansen significant playing time over the past two seasons, has popped up again, and there’s a chance Jansen could miss the rest of the season. We’ll see if he pitches again in 2012, but prudent owners might want to start taking a look at Ronald Belisario and Brandon League, each of whom could pick up save opportunities the rest of the way (for the moment, however, Belisario looks like he has the edge).
• Rafael Furcal is done for the season after injuring the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow last week. Role player Daniel Descalso will likely take things over at shortstop for the redbirds the rest of the way.
• A shoulder injury has knocked Denard Span to the disabled list, and he could be done for the season.
• Speaking of guys at risk of being lost for the season, David Ortiz remains on the DL due to a right Achilles injury.
Bumps and bruises
• Mark Teixeira has missed the last several games with a sore calf, and believes he’ll be ready to return on Thursday.
• Lower back tightness ruined Neil Walker’s usefulness in week 22, and he probably won’t be able to produce much this week.
• Just back from the DL after a fractured bone in his right leg, Jeff Niemann could be out of action after leaving Saturday’s start with right arm tightness. We’ll know in a few days the extent of the injury’s seriousness, but at the very least, Alex Cobb’s job security has increased in the starting rotation.
• Chris Tillman is scheduled to have an MRI on his right elbow today after leaving Sunday’s start against the Yankees early.
Closer moves
• It took long enough, but now that we’ve reached September, we can officially call Andrew Bailey the closer of the Red Sox. He’s yet to earn a save since taking over the job from Alfredo Aceves, but he’s worth an add in all leagues that reward saves, since his velocity appears to be back to normal upon his return.
Phenom watch
• After an up-and-down (mostly down) year in Triple-A, Cardinals’ starter Shelby Miller has been called up to the show, though it’s unclear when he’ll make his first major league start. Miller, 21, comes to the majors with mediocre stats this year (11-10, 4.74 ERA, 1.376 WHIP), but pitched in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League and was 7-2 with a 2.88 ERA from July 14 onward. With a solid offense backing him up, Miller could be an intriguing spot starter down the stretch for fantasy owners.
• Jurickson Profar wowed the world with a home run in his first major league at-bat over the weekend, but he’s trying to break into a crowded infield that already features Elvis Andrus at shortstop and Ian Kinsler at second base. Profar is worth adding in all keeper leagues, but it’s not yet clear whether he’ll hold any value in 2012.
Innings watch
• All along, we knew the Nationals were thinking about shutting down Stephen Strasburg, but with the team contending to go deep into the playoffs, one couldn’t be positive that we’d actually see Washington’s ace voluntarily lost for the year. Well, now we have our answer: Strasburg will get two more starts this year, with his last coming on Sept. 12 against the Mets. Obviously, this hurts fantasy owners big time, so plan ahead.
• There’s no firm cutoff date for Jeff Samardzija, but the Cubs’ big right-hander and 2012 breakout hurler will also be shut down later this month, so keep an eye out.
Road to recovery
• Alex Rodriguez is back in action after missing nearly six weeks with a broken left hand.
• The Padres’ Andrew Cashner has returned to San Diego’s starting rotation, and the team will likely use six starters now that he’s back.
• Troy Tulowitzki has begun a minor league rehab assignment, but it doesn’t appear as if he’s close to returning.
Posted by Karl de Vries at 5:18am
Monday, September 03, 2012
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice based on my every-morning waiver wire search. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
A call to arms: With September games underway, playing time trends can become unpredictable. I can't watch 30 teams at once so if you discover a trend that can be leveraged, please share.
Today's grind
The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:
Pitcher (to start): Ross Detwiler is fairly reliable and it's hard to ask for a better match-up than the Cubs.
I don't know much about Jeff Locke besides his minor league numbers, but said numbers are good and the Astros lineup is not.
I'm an early fan of Patrick Corbin and I expect he'll survive his match-up with the division leading Giants just fine.
Pitcher (bum): If you're looking for a bum today, it's Bruce Chen against the Rangers. Alternatively, I don't see the Brewers being too kind to Ricky Nolasco.
Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes against C.J. Wilson tops the list of power options today. That list trails off surprisingly quick, mostly because there are a lot of solid pitchers going today.
Hitter (speed): Rajai Davis will have the platoon advantage against a thoroughly mediocre pitcher. Jon Jay has a fair match-up and could score a handful of points.
Tomorrow's grind
Kyle Kendrick is on the best run of his lifetime, allowing only four runs over his last four starts. I know some of my readers will want to ride the wave. Good luck to you, I'm going to observe from a distance.
You can try Jarrod Parker against the Angels, because he's a solid pitcher and he at least has the Oakland Coliseum on his side to slow down the Angels' powerful lineup.
Scott Hairston stands out as possessing a strong match-up.
Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki get to face Jacob Turner, who simply isn't ready for MLB hitters.
Our old favorite David Murphy should turn in a couple of hits against Jeremy Guthrie.
Tommy Hanson has struggled lately (to the point that I cut him in a league), which is why I like Tyler Colvin tomorrow.
Reliever watch
The Phillies received an ugly combined effort from Jeremy Horst and Jonathan Papelbon that ended in a Chipper Jones walk-off home run. The Phillies will overreact in the offseason to "fix" their struggling bullpen, but clearly Papelbon is more than safe at this point.
A question
I'm thinking about taking my down time today to experiment with a subtle format change. Basically, I would be moving the table behind the scenes and going back to reporting only the top match-ups of the day. I hope to provide some additional information as well.
My question is: given that we're in the stretch run, should I wait until next season to try a new format?
Posted by Brad Johnson at 7:17am
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