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Tuesday, March 12, 2013Dollar a day: Justin SmoakLast year, I gave you five endgame options that might have—depending on your league structure—cost you a buck. Three of them panned out: Jose Altuve was about the only sight to behold on the Astros; Mike Minor cemented himself in the long-term plans of the Braves with a stellar season; and Mike Aviles flaunted his underrated power-speed combination for the cost of a McDouble. Two of them panned: John Mayberry was a tease that wouldn’t stop teasing, and Mat Gamel blew out his knee. I’ll go five for five this year.
We kicked things off yesterday with Cliff Pennington. And the second “future steal of your draft” is none other than Justin Smoak. Remember when Justin Smoak was traded for Cliff Lee? Yes, this actually happened. Remember that time Justin Smoak hit .240 in the majors? I sure don’t! Remember Justin Smoak ‘s final line last year? Ryan Howard could do better with one Achilles. If Justin Smoak is to you a running joke, I must ask you to reconsider. I understand his track record is far from shiny—three years has gone so fast, and he’s proven himself to be a 20-homer, batting average sucking black hole at one of the deepest positions in the fantasy sphere. But if you slept through last September, I’m finally waking you up. Justin Smoak’s a changed man; a hitting machine; an artist at the plate; and a bell-ringer in the spring. Perhaps this is a foolhardy analysis, but my theory is that Justin Smoak learned patience in the fall of last year. His swing percentage outside the zone (23.4 percent) was more than three percent below his career average; he also struck out at roughly half (11.5 percent) his career rate in September. What might have caused this? Your guess is as good as mine…if your guess is “demotion.” I don’t know what changed him in Tacoma—it doesn’t exactly scream “life-altering vacation”—but I know he was walking like a madman on the farm, and upon return, was indeed a more patient fellow at the plate. He smashed five homers in a month, hit like Willie Mays, and even decided to act like a plus fielder for a brief period. Chalk him up for 20 or 25 home runs this year, and forget the crowd of powerful bats taking Safeco this year: Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Jesus Montero, and Young Justin can all reasonably fit on the field, smashing long balls, smashing away. Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:05am Six potential breakoutsThese players appear primed for a platoon role or should otherwise feature low ownership rates to start the season. Justin SmoakSmoak qualifies as a classic post-hype sleeper. He may also qualify as a classic case of wish-casting. He's potentially capable of adding substantial gains to his power numbers and batting average.It's very dangerous to put much weight on one month of performance, but in this case, a strong September plus a very impressive spring training are encouraging. After struggling throughout the entire 2012 season, Smoak turned the corner in September by posting a 1.005 OPS for the month. He had 13 walks and 13 strikeouts. His .239 ISO was consistent with his minor league numbers. His BABIP was elevated at .357, but that's only one or two hits on the lucky side for such a small sample. His spring numbers are silly, but he's been here before, so be ready to deploy your grains of salt. Through 23 plate appearances, he has nine hits, two home runs, two walks, and four strikeouts—good for a 1.335 OPS. Research suggests that .250 point increases in spring OPS can predict breakouts. And now for the salt. Last season, his spring OPS was .966 over twice as many plate appearances, and that campaign went quite poorly. He's also credited with implementing mechanical changes late last season—which makes the breakout narrative more compelling (if not more probable). He'll need to dodge competition from Michael Morse, Kendrys Morales, Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay for playing time, but so far he has the inside track on a regular role.
Belt has settled in as a reliable fantasy role player. In 2012, he was slightly below average in all five standard categories and provided some utility with his first base and outfield eligibility. He's potentially capable of doubling his home runs per plate appearance while seeing more playing time. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
