THT Fantasy Focus

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:41am (11) Comments

Strength of schedule: Adjusting hitter values

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a concept usually reserved for discussions about football. That is largely because football has only 16 games per season, and therefore the variance between the easiest schedule and hardest schedule is quite large. Over a 162 game season, that disparity becomes much smaller, which is why now, 40 games into 2013, is the perfect time to gauge schedules in baseball—right now, there is a huge disparity between the best and worst quality of competition faced among specific players.

In fantasy baseball leagues, being aware of that disparity could lead to enormous advantages in valuing players much more accurately than your league mates, because at this point, strength of schedule just isn’t something the average baseball owner factors in. This week, I’m going to focus on the hitters with the best and worst SOS in certain metrics, and next week I will write up the pitchers.

Note: All of the data used in this article is from BaseballProspectus.com, and only includes hitters with a minimum of 75 Plate Appearances.

Nate McLouth, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and the rest of the Orioles lineup:
Baseball Prospectus has a metric called Opponent Slugging (oppSLG), which is the aggregate slugging average of all the pitchers faced against a hitter. The Orioles have nine of the top 20 performers in oppSLG so far this season. Basically, Baltimore as a team has faced pitchers who have given up an inordinately high slugging percentage so far this year, so all of the power-performances on the team must be taken with a slight grain of salt.

I still buy into Adam Jones, Chris Davis and even Nate McLouth as legitimate fantasy performers, but their power production pace might dwindle the rest of the year. That is particularly true in the cases of Chris Davis (11 HR, .659 SLG) J.J. Hardy (7 HR, .396 SLG) and Manny Machado (5 HR, .541 SLG).

The Blue Jays Lineup vs. the Tigers Lineup
At this point in the season, all of these opponent-gauging metrics seem to come in team-wide waves. One of those stats is Opponent On Base Percentage (oppOBP), which measures the aggregate On Base Percentage of all of the pitchers a batter has faced for the year. The Blue Jays have six of the 10 lowest oppOBP’s in major league baseball, and nine of the bottom 18, whereas Detroit actually has six of the top seven performers in the statistic.

The truth of the matter is the Blue Jays have just faced one of the hardest pitching schedules in baseball so far this year, and the Tigers have faced one of the easiest. Players like Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera have all been adversely affected by that fact, and players like Alex Avila, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter have all been greatly helped by it.

For example, the difference between Lawrie’s oppOBP (.298) and Torii Hunter’s (.330) makes the 100 point disparity in their OBPs more understandable—Hunter has faced significantly worse competition than Lawrie.

While the ratio of how much oppOBP affects a player’s actual OBP isn’t one to one, a shrewd fantasy owner should acknowledge that it has some tangible effect and downgrade some of what Hunter has accomplished this year, while upgrading what Lawrie has done. Both oppOBP and oppSLG should be used as a general tool to modify a player’s value slightly rather than to overhaul it entirely.

Buy Low On: Buster Posey
Posey has managed a .286/.391/.508 triple slash so far this season. The most impressive part of that is certainly the slugging percentage, as Posey is among the bottom thirty in oppSLG. Most fantasy owners are disappointed that Posey only has 5 homers so far this year, but I think that number should spike the rest of the way and owners will be thoroughly satisfied. Posey has also both increased his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, so he is maturing as a hitter plate discipline-wise despite some bad luck. Now is a prime opportunity to buy low on the guy who is still clearly the best catcher in Major League Baseball.

Sell High On: Coco Crisp
Coco Crisp is tied for the tenth highest oppOBP in baseball. The reason I’ve singled out Crisp from that list as a sell high candidate is that his skillset in particular benefits greatly from facing a lot of high on base allowing competition. Speed-first guys are extremely prone to having value inflation due to their fluky OBP’s, and Crisp seems like a prime example of that phenomenon.

See, stolen bases are all about opportunities, and logically, the more a player gets on base, the more opportunity they will have to steal bases. So not only did Crisp’s value get inflated in the form of a higher batting average, more runs, and a higher OBP, it also gets inflated (disproportionately so) because Crisp now has significantly more stolen bases than he normally would have up to this point in the season. I still like Crisp, but his pace of eight stolen bases in 25 games is completely unsustainable, and I’d project his .375 OBP to regress to around his career norm of .330. If you can still get top 50 player rater value for him, I would pull the trigger on moving Crisp.

Posted by Moe Koltun at 2:44am (0) Comments

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. III

Baseball is funny. Fantasy baseball is especially funny.

Sometimes you're a quarter of the way into the season, all of your teams are in first place, all is right with the world, the sun in shining, the gods are smiling upon you, you're walking tall and feel like a million bucks, and then you happen to notice on twitter that David Price (a key cog on your dynasty team) felt something in his triceps, and then felt it again, and then came out of the game. And then seemingly all at once you think to yourself:

Oh god this is the worst thing that has ever happened to me, how could this happen to me? And to David? Poor, sweet David. I wonder if there's anything I can do to help. Would chicken noodle soup help? I have no idea, I'm not a doctor. It always makes me feel better, I guess. How would I even get chicken noodle soup to him? The mail? Delivery? Is he a spaghetti man? Egg noodles? Fusilli? THIS IS A COMPLETE DISASTER. TAKE ANYONE BUT POOR, SWEET DAVID. TAKE ME! TAKE. ME.

Like I said, baseball is funny.

Unfortunately for certain fantasy baseball writers (hey, that's me!) injuries are a part of the game, and they're part of what bring us together here. Dumpster diving is necessary because you always need a Plan B. Even if Plan A is David Price, who has been really durable and just plain great the entire time you've had him on your team. Plan B. You need one. Before we look at some potential Plan B guys today, let's recap a few of our past subjects.

Recent Waiver Wire honorees Mitch Moreland, James Loney, and Will Venable were all among the most added players on CBS this week. Each can provide value in the right circumstances (those circumstances being that you need help, and not a savior).

John Lackey continues to be a very useful pitcher, despite his tough start against the Rays this week, and is still owned in just 34 percent of CBS leagues. He's out there, and he's undervalued.

Matt Garza is making potentially his last rehab start as this is being written, and could rejoin the Cubs early next week.

Let's start today's coverage with Scott Kazmir, since nobody seems to be doing much of that these days.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians| SP | ESPN: 20.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 23 percent; CBS: 65 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.33 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 3.87 xFIP in 25.1 innings pitched
ZiPS Projection: 4-7, 5.80 ERA in 73 innings pitched

Kazmir received all kinds of press last week after he spun a pair of gems against Minnesota and Oakland, and as a result was CBS' most added players last week, jumping from 22 percent to 64 percent. I'm not here to recommend him, though, for a few reasons:

1. He's still a pretty extreme flyball pitcher (getting just 36.5 percent groundballs right now) and one who has seen a career rate of 9.5 percent of them leave the yard. It's worth noting that his home run rate is more than twice his career average right now, so a likely drop in that will improve his 5.53 ERA and 5.58 FIP close to his xFIP of 3.87. But still, those are not great numbers.
2. His control has been better, but we're still just looking at a sample of 25.1 innings pitched, and I'm not ready to buy that he's made significant strides there.
3. Because he gets a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks, and because that gets his pitchcount high early, he has a tough time pitching deep into ballgames. In points leagues, this is a real problem.
4. His strand rate right now (82.2 percent) is high, even for a guy who strikes out as many batters as he does.

Recommendation: He's one of the hot topics this week, and his strikeout totals might be pretty at times, but my hunch is his ERA, walks, and lack of innings will make him much less useful to fantasy owners than he will be in real life to the Indians. There are better options available in your league right now. Pass.

Eric Chavez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3B | ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 7 percent
YTD: .310/.376/.536 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .284/.347/.480 in 262 plate appearances

Hey, remember this guy? Would you believe me if I told you he was still just 35 years old? (Yes? Okay, well, good. It wasn't a trick statement or anything, he's 35 years old).

Chavez has to be on everyone's short list for "most frustrating/sad career paths." From 2001-2006, in his Age 23-28 seasons, he racked up 29.1 wins above replacement, combing stellar defense with an offensive profile you dream about. He hit for average, he walked, he hit for power. He accrued plenty of runs and RBI and was just generally a fantasy monster. Then injuries set in. He missed half of 2007 and then played just 122 games combined over the following four seasons. Last year he got his health more or less in order (certainly by his standards, at least) and was able to play in 133 games for the Yankees. He wasn't the monster he once was, but Chavez was sneakily good for New York, putting up a .360 wOBA while posting a strong batting average, walk rate, and ISO.

This year, Chavez has been able to play in 29 of the Diamondbacks 41 games, and is mostly just sitting against lefties. When he's in the lineup, he's been hitting cleanup, and producing at the plate just like the good old days. He is quite literally the biggest injury wild card you could ever have, but his .387 wOBA is worth the gamble. If he stays healthy, this pickup could solidify a championship run. If he adds another in a long line of injuries, well, at least you gave it your best shot.

Recommendation: It's hard to believe a guy with an OPS north of .900 is so widely available at this point of the season, but it's likely the fantasy market isn't buying what Chavez is selling because it's been burned so many times before. Add him now and ride the wave.

Munenori Kawasaki | Toronto Blue Jays | 2B/SS | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 3 percent
YTD: .235/.337/.279 in 83 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .257/.311/.311 in 402 plate appearances

Let's be clear, this is pretty deep digging for fantasy purposes, and Kawasaki is not going to help you (like, at all) in terms of batting average or power. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about what he can do, which is walk, steal bases, and potentially score runs when he's in the lineup (against right-handed pitching, mostly) while Jose Reyes is on the shelf.

In 83 plate appearances this year, Kawasaki has a very strong walk rate of 13.3 percent. There's a lot to like about his plate discipline numbers, including a very low O-Swing% of 18.7 percent, and an incredible contact rate of 94.4 percent. Essentially, he's not swinging at anything outside the zone, and is making contact with pretty much everything he does offer at. With the amount he's getting on base, he's been able to steal five bases, and has only been caught once.

Recommendation: Kawasaki is not a game breaker by any means, and his value will probably evaporate completely when Reyes returns, but in the short term he can provide some value to teams desperately needing middle infield help.

Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:43am (0) Comments

Thursday, May 16, 2013

The daily grind: 5-16-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Today is not a good day to stream. If you must, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront look like the best options.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos is probably exploitable on a good day and he's had a long rest. Most pitchers don't like that.

Aaron Harang still seems like he's a few starts from putting it all together.

Edinson Volquez will face a depleted Nationals lineup. It sounds like Harper could miss another game.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay face Harang.

Garrett Jones draws Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. continues to be an everyday option for steals. I have a suspicion he may be coming off the bench tonight in favor of Charlie Blackmon.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez will face the Astros, who have turned into a feast or famine unit. They starve a lot more frequently than they feast, but Gomez is still hard to justify using.

Pitcher (bum): Jordan Lyles seems to be having trouble adjusting to life in the major leagues.

Brandon Maurer versus Ubaldo Jimenez could produce many runs. The same goes for Jeremy Hellickson versus Jason Hammel.

The Rangers will aim to exploit Rick Porcello. Free Drew Smyly.

There are other exploitable pitchers, but I'll draw the line at Vance Worley against the Red Sox.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda will face Edwin Jackson, whose 6.02 ERA is balanced by a 3.50 FIP.

Continue using Jones.

Daniel Nava is a good play against Worley.

Brett Pill may start against Jorge de la Rosa in place of Brandon Belt.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain goes against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia will see Gio Gonzalez.

Noteworthy news

Francisco Rodriguez is expected to join the Brewers soon. Don't expect him to take over the closer's gig immediately. In fact, I wouldn't speculate on him unless you're in desperate need of saves or don't have any other use for the roster spot.

Yasmani Grandal is starting his minor league assignment and is expected to return to the Padres May 28. He will likely platoon with Nick Hundley until he can prove himself.

Weather watch

The Mets and Cardinals might see thunderstorms, but otherwise the coast is clear.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am (12) Comments

Of Uggs and Uggla

It’s an age old question for anybody who has ever taken a trip to the grocery store, or to shop for pants—do you buy what you need/want, or do you buy what is on sale? ...and, no, I don't wear Ugg boots (I'm not Tom Brady), but I could pass up the clever title.

Last week, in my shallowest league, a cold Dan Uggla surfaced on the waiver wire. I hadn’t entered the store of available players to look for a power-hitting middle infielder, or any middle infielder at all, actually. I had just stopped in to browse the spot starting pitchers section. But, like when you are in one of those discount stores and you see an item from a brand normally too high-end to show up at that store, my interests were certainly piqued. Now, this is not the nicest model the second baseman brand makes, and as mentioned, I had no intent to pick up a middle infielder, but the allure of discounted luxury goods can be alluring… even if there’s a chance this Dan Uggla is an irregular. So, I picked him up.

But, did I make the right decision? Is it a good idea to pick up a player simply because he represents a bargain?

In some cases, I think there is a very strong argument for this philosophy – amass talent and decide what to do with it later. And, if you are going to employ this strategy, early in the season is the time to do it. However, the other variable with this strategy is whether your team has current glaring needs. In my case, my offense has been stellar but my pitching has been atrocious. Beyond that, I’m falling a bit too far behind the pace in innings. Even if I feel that much of my staff will come around in the long run (and, I do), I still need the flexibility of that roster spot to take advantage of decent waiver wire options matched up against the Astros and Marlins.

So, I did what your favorite rapper or pop star does with the $8,000 outfit from his/her video. I used my Dan Uggla once or twice and then I returned it. After dropping it off, I bought a lovely start from Nick Tepesch against the Astros and then a productive day from Lyle Overbay on the travel day. I was hoping Uggla would remain available, and allow me to use him regularly on those travel days, when I typically look for spot bats as opposed to spot arms. He may have even convinced me to drop or trade somebody else to make room for him as a regular part of my wardrobe. But, unlike when actually shopping, I couldn’t hide a sweater in the housewares section so I could buy it next time I returned to the store. So, a day or two later, somebody else picked up Uggla.

At the end of the day, I’m comfortable with my decision to prioritize need over value in a vacuum. I have way more room to improve in pitching and need to try to augment my rotation via the wire, either by repeated wise plays or by catching lightening in a bottle on that end. The name of the game is to earn the most points, not accumulate the most talent or value.

How do you balance need vs. value when combing the available players in your league?

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:03am (0) Comments

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

The daily grind: 5-15-13

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday was a bit of a disasterpiece. I hope few of you used Scott Kazmir or John Lackey (I used both). There's still reason to be cautiously optimistic about both guys, but I would emphasize the caution part more going forward.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes is up to 52 percent owned and remains the best streaming option for the day. He will face the Mariners.

Mike Leake is a decent fallback due to his match-up with the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): The Phillies got to lefty Scott Kazmir last night, and I predict they'll hit well against Corey Kluber too.

The only thing keeping Mike Pelfrey from being an everyday mention in the exploit column is the five-day rotation.

Coming off four bad outings to start the season, Shaun Marcum has a tough assignment against the Cardinals.

Wade Davis versus Barry Enright sounds like a high-scoring affair.

Hitter (power): Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind may benefit from facing Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown homered yesterday and has a friendlier match-up tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has spent some time circling the waivers in my leagues. He has a nice combination of speed and power. He'll also face Kluber today.

Nate Schierholtz faces Jon Garland.

Eric Young Jr. is starting and leading off on occasion. Use him with impunity.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Honestly, don't try to force it tomorrow. Nobody has a match-up where I can comfortable expect an ERA under 4.00. If you absolutely must use somebody, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront are the best dice throws.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos got skipped after blowing up against the Reds. The Pirates have a solid offense and will look to exploit any rust he shows.

Aaron Harang will likely struggle against the voodoo Yankees.

Edinson Volquez may be lucky enough to not face Bryce Harper or Jayson Werth, but the Nationals lineup will still be a challenge for him.

Hitter (power): If Harper is out another game, Tyler Moore will get the lovely Volquez match-up.

Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay should enjoy facing Harang.

Garrett Jones will see Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Keep on using Young.

Noteworthy news

Zack Greinke and Curtis Granderson return to the lineup.

Harper was held out yesterday, citing nausea (among other things). That's a bit worrying. The team docs said he did not have a concussion, but nausea is a symptom of a concussion. It bears watching.

Weather watch

There is currently a small risk of storms in St. Louis and Philadelphia, but otherwise it's another fine weather day.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am (4) Comments

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. II

Well, it turns out Andrew Bailey isn’t as close to returning as I may have thought late last week, giving Junichi Tazawa a more lengthy look at the closer’s job in Boston. Problem is, he’s been somewhat terrible since inheriting the job, leading to speculation that a closer platoon with him and Koji Uehara might be possible. Meanwhile, Heath Bell has settled in as the D-Backs closer, though a blown save last week reminded us that he’s hardly a lock for 25-30 saves the rest of the way.

Going even further back in this column’s 2013 track record, Aaron Hicks belted two homers the other day against the White Sox, though that just soothes my ego after the collapse of Jake Westbrook’s fantasy value and Felix Doubront’s recent problems.

But if you wanted to talk about last week’s column, you’d be reading it, wouldn’t you? Let’s look at some new blood.

Will Venable | San Diego Padres | OF | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.6 percent ESPN; 20 percent CBS
YTD: 106 PA / .247 / .327 / .452 with 5 HR and 7 SB
ZiPS updated: 479 PA / .246 / .319 / .421 with 15 HR and 25 SB

Twitter pal Lee Wilson on Friday asked me for my quick thoughts on Venable vs. Craig Gentry and Jordan Schafer. After a quick eyeballing of the three players’ stats, I favored Venable, based on his more consistent playing time and better speed. But the real reason I like Venable—well, at least to the extent one can like a guy with a career .742 OPS—is his 15.4 percent line drive rate entering Wednesday, which is more than three percentage points below his career average. When that climbs, we’ll see his BABIP creep up toward his career .315 level, which will raise his .247 average.

The good news is that Venable is starting to heat up after hitting just .206 last month. Since May began, he’s hit .360 with three home runs and four steals entering Wednesday’s action. Not coincidentally, that hot streak began just after the Padres regained their best offensive player in Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko began hitting as well. It’s also been encouraging to see Venable hit .327 at Petco Park—yes, that average is inflated by a lofty BABIP, and we’re just talking about a friggin’ six-week stretch here, but for a guy who’s struggled in San Diego throughout his career, perhaps the moved-in fences are a sign that he’ll begin to play better at home.

The 30-year-old Venable, of course, is hardly a newcomer to fantasy circles, having been a full-time player for the past three years after debuting with the Padres in 2008. He's a left-handed-hitter who remains an extreme platoon player, evidenced by a putrid .580 OPS against southpaws. But despite his familiarity as a not-great-but-not-awful fantasy option and someone who’s averaged 26 steals over the past three years, he’s still available in plenty of leagues. He’s never going to be a must-grab, but a hot hand is a hot hand, and the stolen bases alone give him should merit him consideration in five-outfield leagues.

Recommendation: Pass in standard mixed leagues, but pick him up while he’s hot everywhere else.

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 39.2 IP / 4.88 FIP / 4.99 K/9 / 4.31 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 154 IP / 4.61 FIP / 6.05 K/9 / 3.92 BB/9

When I saw the southpaw’s CBS ownership jump by more than 20 points in the past week, I figured he was ripe for a spin in the waiver wire. After all, Pittsburgh is about as good a place to stay anonymous as there is in baseball, and perhaps this guy is the real deal looking for just a little positive PR to get his ownership going.

Locke, 25, was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2006, and was traded, along with two other players, in the 2009 deal between Atlanta and Pittsburgh for Nate McLouth. In the minors, Locke pitched well, compiling a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a fine 1.26 WHIP and an ability to get strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that doesn’t zoom beyond the low-90s, the Princeton grad was never tabbed as a spectacular prospect, but is expected to hang around the majors as a back-of-the-rotation hurler on a good team.

So what explains the jump in his ownership? Well, a 2.95 ERA certainly doesn’t scare away prospective fantasy owners, and a 3-1 record in seven starts isn’t half bad. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. Want proof? Take your pick: A 4.84 xFIP. A crazy 81.5 percent strand rate. A 21 percent balls in play average. A 7.1 swinging strike rate. Yeah, seven starts is not a gigantic sample size, but it’s not a trend that portends a happy ending, either.

I’m not here to discredit Locke as a big leaguer or wish a pox upon his house, and if he can continue to pound the strike zone and limit walks, I don’t think a 4 ERA with a 6 K/9 is impossible by the time 2013 is over. But a market correction is right around the corner, and when that happens, you’ll want to be someplace else, preferably wearing a helmet while nestled in a concrete bunker.

Recommendation: Stay away in mixed leagues.

Denard Span | Washington Nationals | OF | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 23.9 percent ESPN; 56 percent CBS
YTD: 151 PA / .277 / .344 / .350 with 0 HR and 5 SB
ZiPS updated: 595 PA / .275 / .335 / .369 with 3 HR and 18 SB

Can I ask a dumb question? Why is the leadoff hitter on arguably the best team in the National League hanging around the waiver wire in so many leagues? What’s wrong with a guy who steals bases, scores runs and posts a decent batting average?

Well, past history, for starters: Fantasy owners went ga-ga over Span’s 97 runs, .311 average and 10.4 percent walk rate back in 2009. But they then watched with abject disappointment as his on-base percentage collapsed in subsequent years, a situation compounded by a nasty concussion he suffered in 2011 and a shoulder injury last year that limited him to 128 games. Even after a 3.6 WAR season last year, his wOBA was off by more than 30 points from his 2009 season, and his stock entering 2013 was nowhere near what it was back in his salad days.

Then there’s the dearth of power. We’re talking about just 23 home runs over more than 2,800 career plate appearances (none so far this year) and despite once leading the league in triples, his career ISO barely breaks .100. For Span to be considered a mixed-league outfielder, he needs to keep up his production in his three categories to offset the damage he’ll do to an owner’s batting average and home runs.

So far this year, I’d say the results are mixed. His on-base percentage is acceptable but not ideal, as is his stolen base total, the byproduct of just six attempts. Span’s also suffering from a nasty 19.2 percent infield flyball rate, which will come back down to earth soon enough, and a 14.6 percent strikeout rate that stands to regress back to his career average. As for his health, he had appeared in all but three of the Nationals’ games entering this season, so there’s little reason to believe he’s not 100 percent.

And therein lies the key to Span’s fantasy value: Staying on the field. Assuming a baseline batting average of .280, he could very well produce 90 runs hitting atop a lineup that will produce better as the season unfolds, and I don’t think a return to 20 stolen bases is out of the question. I realize Span, a solid defender, is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, and in a perfect world, an owner would prefer a more well-rounded stolen base producer than him. But Span does enough things well to justify a hike in his ownership levels, and as the summer progresses, I think that will happen.

Recommendation: It’s time to think about Span in standard mixed leagues again.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:08am (9) Comments

Mike Moustakas’ hole

Lately, I’ve been working on a few projects related to the concept of the “opposite field premium.” I think that opposite field hitting ability is something that we don’t pay enough attention to, and that the ability to hit to all fields can only become more valuable to a major league hitter over the next few years.

The majors' best opposite field hitters are better hitters (overall) than the average hitter. Additionally, defenses can't shift against good opposite field hitters. Joey Votto agrees, and so should you.

Considering my interest in this type of work, it makes sense that I’ve been keeping a close eye on Mike Moustakas this year. Almost one out of every two balls that Moustakas hits in play are pulled, but his pull percentage alone doesn’t really do justice to his (in)ability to hit to left field. I don’t think I can come up with words that are strong enough to make this point clear to every reader, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

In the table below, I’ll use weighted runs created as a proxy for hitting ability. Weighted runs created (or wRC) measures a hitter's offensive output in runs. The wRC+ metric uses 100 as league average, and we interpret differences from 100 as percentage point differences above/below league average.

If you’re wondering how to interpret a negative wRC+ value, I don’t have a great answer for you. FanGraphs defines an awful hitter as someone who posts a 40 wRC+ or lower (a hitter who creates 60 percent less runs than league average). A hitter with a wRC+ of zero technically creates 100 percent less runs than the average player (or zero runs, relative to the average). Moustakas is clearly a very good hitter when he pulls the ball, if not one of the league’s best. But just how awful is Moustakas as an opposite field hitter? It’s hard to tell, actually, because he breaks the scale.

Side note: According to this metric, only two players were worse opposite field hitters than Moustakas was in 2012. Interestingly enough, the first is Jimmy Rollins—a switch hitter. The second is Aaron “I broke my hand because I tried to go the other way” Hill.

I guess it is obvious at this point that Moustakas hasn’t entered 2013 with a more balanced offensive approach. The gap between his pull and opposite field production is even wider now than it was in 2012, and his overall offensive production has been disappointing. Can we attribute Moustakas’ recent struggles to this one, glaring flaw? And what do these splits tell us about Moustakas’ unique swing?

What does he hit where?

Royals fans can find some solace in the fact that Moustakas has average-ish plate discipline. In fact, he has swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone this year (relative to 2012). However, it’s possible that Moustakas has an issue determining which pitches should be pulled, and which pitches should be hit the other way. If you look at the graph below, you’ll see that he is hitting outside pitches to left field—this is a good thing. However, he pulls the ball so often that he likely is also be pulling some of the outside pitches that he sees. I've plotted pitches that Moustakas hit to left field in 2012 below. We see this strike zone from a catcher's point of view.

It appears that Moustakas does hit pitches that are thrown on the outer half to left field at least some of the time. He also pulls a good number of these pitches, but he doesn’t have a lot of success doing that. In an earlier article I wrote on Zack Cozart's struggles at the plate, I argued that some dead pull hitters tend roll over and hit lazy ground balls on pulled outside pitches.

The hole

We can get a better idea of how well Moustakas handles fastballs on the outer half if we compare his results to league averages. Below, I’ve pulled up two graphs that do just that (courtesy of baseballheatmaps.com). Moustakas is a better hitter than the rest of major league baseball in the green/red areas of the strike zone, and a worse hitter than average in the blue zones. Again, both strike zones are shown from the catcher’s point of view.

With these plots, we can confirm what I originally thought to be true. Moustakas can’t hit pitches that are thrown on the lower outer edge of the plate. My guess is that he has trouble with these pitches because a pitch thrown to the outside corner can’t be effectively pulled by any hitter. I’ll have a full study on this topic soon, but for now you’ll either have to agree with me or write an angry comment below.

These negative run values can be partially explained by fly outs to left field (recall Moustakas’ ridiculous opposite field fly ball rate), but they can also be explained by swinging strikes. Moustakas swings and misses at about the league average rate, but he whiffs most often at pitches low and on the left side of the plate. What’s more, the area of the strike zone in which he swings and misses most often sits just below the area in which he often flies out to left field.

Mike Moustakas has a swing that clearly wasn’t built to hit pitches thrown low and away from the lefty. You may not call the outside corner a hole, but Moustakas’ current approach isn’t as versatile as it could be. I think his dead pull ability is extremely impressive, as he was able to heavily rely on it last year while remaining somewhat productive. But is Moustakas still a bona fide major league hitter if pitchers begin to pound the outside corner? Maybe not.

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:01am (2) Comments

Tuesday, May 14, 2013

The daily grind: 5-14-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm nervous recommending Scott Kazmir, but it seems like conditions are in his favor. He faces the Phillies and is coming off a superb outing against the A's.

John Lackey is another guy on the retread rack. He'll face the Rays, who seem light-hitting but have actually been a top 10 offense.

John Gast is a potentially interesting choice for those who are comfortable playing minor league success. From what I can gather, Gast is "live-armed," can struggle with command, and has a high ceiling as a reliever.

Andrew Cashner is still out there, waiting to hit triple digits on your team.

Pitcher (bum): The match-up between R.A. Dickey and Barry Zito could provide some 1990s era offense.

Jeff Francis has one of his best assignments so far—the Cubs. That isn't stopping me from recommending against him.

Dillon Gee spent a lot of time in my "to start" section. This isn't me throwing him under the bus, the Cardinals are a tough offense to overcome.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston is the top pick for power output.

Chris Johnson will face Patrick Corbin in a battle to see who can defy regression longer.

Jonny Gomes will start but Matt Moore isn't easy pickin's. Too bad he can't face Francis too.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth a look.

As noted in the comments yesterday, Charlie Blackmon will likely see some of the time I originally slated for Eric Young Jr. Still, Young was already starting frequently, so he's should see a few more games now.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes has settled in after a shaky start to the season and has a favorable assignment against the Mariners. He's also 50 percent owned, so he may not be available to many readers.

For some reason, I'm reticent to recommend Mike Leake, even against the lowly Marlins. There's nothing in his peripherals to justify that reticence besides a low-ish strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): For once, I'm going to recommend using the Phillies offense. Corey Kluber is coming off a meltdown outing, though he had previously looked sharp.

Mike Pelfrey will face a struggling White Sox team in a battle to see who can struggle more.

Shaun Marcum has been a mess thus far, and like Gee, he'll also need to turn it around against the Cardinals. Eesh.

Wade Davis faces Barry Enright in what promises to be a high scoring affair. I usually like Davis, but a match-up against the Angels is off-putting.

Hitter (power): Gomes faces another difficult lefty in David Price.

Tomorrow is a good day to try Colby Rasmus against Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown draws Kluber.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain would be a nice addition against Enright.

Try Nate Schierholtz against Jon Garland.

Noteworthy news

Bryce Harper is showing the portion of his skill set that most worries me. He lost a fight with a wall yesterday that has left him day-to-day with some stitches and a possibly jammed shoulder. Harper has that Griffeyesque penchant for leaving it all on the field (and then some).

Weather watch

Hooray for more great weather.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am (2) Comments

Monday, May 13, 2013

The daily grind: 5-13-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Hector Santiago will face the Twins today. He sports a 23 percent ownership rate and has posted strong peripherals including an increased whiff rate that has led to a strikeout per inning and low walk rate.

Justin Grimm has a solid match-up away in Oakland. The Athletics can be a challenge for stream-quality pitchers, especially if they don't have their best command and control that day.

Juan Nicasio might be a bit of a stretch, but a game against the Cubs' mediocre offense should help him.

Pitcher (bum): Luis Mendoza will face Joe Blanton—a game that promises to be high scoring.

Jeremy Hefner may have a hard time against the Cardinals.

This could be a big day for the Indians offense. Both David Phelps and Vidal Nuno are exploitable.

Hitter (power): It's a good day for a double play from Travis Hafner.

Travis Snider is off everybody's radar, but Marco Estrada is a good place to target his first long ball of the season.

Hitter (speed): Michael Brantley might get into two games, but I'm guessing he'll actually platoon with Drew Stubbs today.

Eric Young Jr. should be starting quite regularly with Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Blanton.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is coming off two strong outings. In a very small sample, he's pitching like it's 2008 again. The Phillies are exploitable by lefties, which makes it easier to overcome my general distrust of Kazmir.

I never thought I'd still be able to recommend Andrew Cashner. He should be owned in most keeper formats, although his redraft value is probably in line with his ownership rate of 27 percent.

John Lackey will struggle to win the game since he's opposed by Matt Moore, but a match-up against the Rays is fairly friendly.

You may not want to start him, but keep an eye on John Gast. He's filling in for Jake Westbrook and his minor league numbers suggest the potential for solid results.

Pitcher (bum): I don't play feelings very often, but I have a feeling the Blue Jays are going to tee off on Barry Zito. R.A. Dickey's turned into a bit of a punching bag too; he really needs to go to the disabled list and recover.

Jeff Francis starting means Cubs hitters should go wild.

Dillon Gee seems like he needs to reboot. St. Louis is not the place to do it.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should see action against Francis.

Patrick Corbin is going to turn pumpkin eventually. So is Chris Johnson, which makes this an interesting platoon option. My money is on Corbin winning.

Jonny Gomes has that tough assignment against Moore.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth streaming tomorrow.

Hang onto Young Jr.

Noteworthy news

I have a graduation to attend today, so don't expect any responses. Oh, you expected real major league baseball news...

Apparently there was a kerfuffle over the use of some pink-labeled bats yesterday. Louisville Slugger owns exclusive rights to brand pink bats used by MLB players. Other manufacturers can make pink bats, but they cannot be labeled. I'm not sure why that qualifies as noteworthy, but I've noted it.

Anthony Rizzo was the latest beneficiary of the now common, pre-arbitration contract extension. He's inked for another seven seasons.

Weather watch

No weather to speak of although the Yankees and Indians doubleheader will be chilly and windy.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:38am (5) Comments

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. I

Dear readers, it's important that you know one of the best parts of our work here at the Waiver Wire desk is our interaction with you. One exchange got me thinking this week, courtesy of reader Fabio, who thanked us for the tips we give. This led me to wonder how often our tips are acted on, how often those tips are successful, and how horribly they fail sometimes (heh, sometimes).

So, friends, feel free to let Karl and I know how we've led you to glory, or how you've followed our help straight into the clutches of defeat. The only way for us to improve our work is to get feedback, both positive and negative.

Now that we're a quarter of the way into the season, our sample of suggestions and warnings is sufficient to vet our work here. In the meantime, let's take a look at some players we've featured here and how they've performed recently.

Felix Doubront was one of the most dropped players at CBS this week, going from 52 percent ownership to 37 percent after being demoted to the bullpen briefly for Allen Webster, who got hit around by the Twins and was then sent back to Triple-A.

Doubront is now back in the rotation, and with an ERA that is 3.58 higher than his FIP (6.40 vs. 2.82) there's a chance to capitalize on a short-term blip in ownership rates. He's a better and more valuable player than the current ownership rates would suggest.

Luis Valbuena has continued his strong play and is still very available in fantasy leagues. He "suffered" a pinkie injury last week, but the team believes (for now) that he'll avoid a stint on the disabled list. The really good news here (for Valbuena and his owners) is that the Cubs also outrighted Ian Stewart to Triple-A and removed him from their 40-man roster, so it appears as though he's further than ever from reclaiming the third base job in Chicago.

Valbuena's stock, therefore, is higher than ever, and the fact that he qualifies at second base as well in many leagues only adds to that value. He's underowned right now, and those seeking help at third or second should take a look.

Kevin Slowey continues to excel, and although his ownership rate is approaching 50 percent on CBS, he's still undervalued by fantasy leagues. Roberto Hernandez also continues to pitch well, and his ownership rate is still down at just 13 percent. That needs to change.

This week we look at a pair of Chicago starting pitchers set to return soon, and a pair of American League first basemen who have been quietly excellent in 2013.

Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 26.3 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 52 percent; CBS: 70 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 9-8, 3.68 ERA in 151.2 innings pitched

John Danks | Chicago White Sox | SP | ESPN: 0.0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 11 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 8-7, 4.50 ERA in 126 innings pitched

It's rare that we feature such big names here in the Waiver Wire, and rarer still that a player owned by 70 percent of CBS leagues could be deemed a value to fantasy league owners. But such is the case here with Matt Garza, who made his third rehab start Saturday and second at Double-A. He looked solid in doing so, and looks to be two more rehab starts away from rejoining the Cubs. When he's back, his ownership rates should be closer to 90 percent than 70 percent.

Garza had been very good for the Cubs prior to his injury, and assuming his stuff is back where it once was (and there's no reason to believe it's not), there's no reason he can't provide value with his solid ERA and high strikeout totals. Garza has posted ERAs under 4.00 every year since 2007 with strikeout rates over 20 percent and walk rates under 10 percent. He's very good, and if he shows himself to be healthy, he should be owned in pretty much every league.

John Danks is another story. The last time he had a sub-4.00 ERA season was 2010, which also was the last time he was healthy all season. Since that time, his strikeouts have been down and his walks have been up.

If he's 2012 Danks, where he walked almost as many batters as he struck out, he's of little use for fantasy managers. But if he proves those numbers were the result of being injured and can post rates closer to his 2011 figures, he could be a diamond in the rough. Time will tell.

Recommendation: Let this serve as a reminder that two players who should be on your radar are nearing return. Garza should be added now in all leagues. With Danks, I'm inclined to wait until he shows me the Danks of old before I buy in.

James Loney | Tampa Bay Rays | 1B | ESPN: 26.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 18 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .371/.426/.533 in 116 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .293/.348/.420 in 545 plate appearances

Mitch Moreland | Texas Rangers | 1B | ESPN: 24.9 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 13 percent; CBS: 38 percent
YTD: .293/.343/.528 in 134 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .275/.330/.467 in 535 plate appearances

It's important to note right off the bat what James Loney will not do. Namely, he's not going to hit for power, and he's not going to fare well against left-handed pitching. Still, it's equally important to state that he has the 13th-highest wOBA in Major League Baseball right now. No, I am not kidding.

After putting up a paltry .272 mark last year, Loney currently is at .414. Mike Petriello took a look at Loney last week and pointed out that part of the reason he's succeeding is because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, making more contact with the pitches he is swinging at, and the Rays have sheltered him against lefties.

Loney is due for a drop across the board because of his unsustainable BABIP of .402, but he is still a player who walks a bunch, can make consistent contact, and plays strong defense that will help keep him in the lineup. Against right-handed opponents, he's not a bad play.

A play I like even more, though, is Mitch Moreland. The Rangers' first baseman doesn't walk as much as Loney and strikes out more, but he does have more power, having put up an ISO of .236 this year and a career ISO of .184.

It's interesting to note that Tampa Bay's offense actually has been better than the Rangers' to this point, although given both lineups and the park effects of their respective home parks, I'm not sure I would expect that to continue all season.

Recommendation: Neither of these guys is going to be Joey Votto for you, but you could do worse, especially while both continue to be penciled into their respective lineups on a daily basis. In deeper leagues and AL-only ones, they're worth pursuing if you have a need at first base or corner infielder.

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:09am (11) Comments

The Hot Seat

There’s no better indicator of a player on the hot seat than the dreaded vote of confidence. On Friday, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that the Twins will keep Pedro Hernandez in the starting rotation for at least one more start. Sounds like a guy with a firm hold on his job to me! It's time to take a look at why Hernandez will lose his rotation spot in the near future and who could replace him.

To begin with, Hernandez is not long for this rotation, no matter what the Twins are telling the media. The 24-year-old lefty is a prototype left-handed specialist who somehow is starting baseball games—major league baseball games, at that. Andrew Berg, my podcast co-host, referred to Hernandez a couple weeks ago as “the loogiest of loogies.” Andrew, as he often is, was very much right on this one. Hernandez’s split stats so far this season tell the whole story:

vs L: 34 batters faced, .147/.147/.206 (.151 wOBA), 0 BB, 5 K
vs R: 67 batters faced, .414/.493/.810 (.542 wOBA), 9 BB, 4 K

Wow. Just look at those numbers. When a righty comes to the plate against Hernandez, there’s essentially a 50/50 shot of him getting on base. Then consider the fact that he’s also served up five homers to righties and none to lefties.

But wait, there’s more! Twelve of the 67 righties Hernandez has faced have tagged him for an extra-base hit. Yes, there is seriously a starting pitcher in a major league rotation who is currently surrendering extra-base hits to 18 percent of the right-handed hitters he faces.

Clearly, this little experiment won’t continue for long. To be fair to Hernandez, it’s not that he’s a bad pitcher. He’s just been put in a situation that does not suit his skills. If I was a manager, I’d love to have a lefty-killer like him in my bullpen.

So who takes his spot when Hernandez inevitably loses it? On the 25-man roster, the Twins have some pretty dreary alternatives. Cole DeVries is currently rehabbing his forearm injury but isn’t expected back for at least a couple more weeks. Anthony Swarzak and Ryan Pressly have been starters in the past, but neither of them could be considered anything resembling a long-term option.

Actually, if you’re not a Twins fan and you know who both Swarzak and Pressly are, pat yourself on the back. To be completely honest, I’m a lifelong Twins fan, and I had no clue who Pressly was until a couple months ago when I saw him pitching in a spring training game. Once I looked into his numbers and realized that he put up a tasty 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in High-A ball last year, I forgave myself for the oversight.

It is possible the Twins will use some combination of Hernandez, Swarzak and Pressly until DeVries is fully healthy. DeVries, however, is no great shakes himself. Sure, his 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87.2 innings last year look pretty good on the surface, but then you see the .258 BABIP and the 4.90 FIP, and you start to back away.

Then you stumble upon the fact that the Twins turned him from a starter to a reliever in 2010, when he was struggling mightily in his second Double-A season, only to turn him back into a starter last season in Triple-A. In short, the guy the Twins are waiting to get back off the DL to fill the fifth starter’s spot is the same guy they gave up on as a starter in the minors three years ago. Sounds promising!

The long-term answer for the Twins clearly is top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson. The only real question is how long the club will wait to bring him up. The window of opportunity obviously is there (this is the same team that featured Vance Worley as its Opening Day starter this year), and Gibson certainly is pitching like a guy who can improve that rotation.

The 25-year-old righty has bounced back nicely from undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011 and is having a great season in Triple-A. In 40.2 innings over seven starts this year, Gibson has pitched to a 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 2.93 FIP, with 35 strikeouts against 11 walks.

Gibson has many of the characteristics of the traditional “Twins starter,” such as the groundball tendencies, low-90s fastball and good command. The difference here is that Gibson stands 6-foot-6 and actually can strike guys out, with a career 8.1 K/9 rate in the minors and the stuff to strike out major-league hitters as well (both his slider and change-up are above-average offerings). His height gives all of his pitches tremendous downward plane, which gives him a bit of deception in the delivery as well as the ability to generate grounders.

Have you guessed yet that I really like Kyle Gibson? He’s ready to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter right now, and as the Twins have demonstrated with Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, they’re more than willing to give their top prospects long looks in the majors this year.

Also of interest is that Gibson’s last Triple-A start (a four-hit shutout) was on Wednesday, which just so happens to be the same day Hernandez was getting ripped for six runs in just two innings with the big-league club. Gibson’s next start is Monday, the same day Hernandez probably will be getting shelled by the White Sox. You get the idea.

As I said earlier, it’s not a question of whether Gibson will be in the Twins rotation this year; it’s more of a question of whether it will be next week or next month. And once he gets there, he’ll be pitching half his games in Target Field, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the majors.

Be aware that Gibson’s innings likely will be limited this year as it is his first full season after Tommy John surgery, but I don’t expect his performance to be limited at all. Go ahead and stash him in AL-only leagues right now; don’t wait until he’s up and you have to blow a bunch of your FAAB budget on him.

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:04am (0) Comments

Friday, May 10, 2013

The daily grind: 5-10-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Ross Detwiler isn't as good as his ERA. He is a solid pitcher, though, and the Cubs don't have a ton of firepower.

Wade Davis receives a recommendation only because the options for today are very shallow. This is a use-only-if-you-must match-up against the Yanquis.

Jose Fernandez is technically under my ownership threshold, as he's owned in 44 percent of leagues. He'll face the Dodgers, but I have a feeling he's not available to many of my readers.

Matt Magill is on the other side of that match-up. I don't know much about Magill except that he's facing the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): This is another day where I can go on and on about the bad pitchers.

The Diamondbacks should enjoy facing Tyler Cloyd. He has a very similar skill set to Colby Lewis, but it took Lewis a trip overseas before he figured out how to succeed in the majors.

The Cardinals have a difficult offense, and Jon Garland is still on my exploitation list.

Dallas Keuchel has a tough assignment against the Rangers.

The Orioles face Mike Pelfrey, while the Reds will see Ramon Ortiz.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should get some time against Detwiler.

I'm a big Domonic Brown fan, and while I think his development path will be slow, certain match-ups like Ian Kennedy are worth using.

Ride the streak with Daniel Nava. At the end of the day, I don't think his HR+SB total will be worth owning, but he's certainly earning A+ marks for streaming.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra gets that Cloyd match-up.

Craig Gentry shall be freed today.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but he sees another tough lefty in Jon Lester.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is still available for recommendation at 27-percent owned. The Rays are one of the leaner AL offenses.

The Dodgers aren't very good, so you might want to try Kevin Slowey in H2H leagues, given the paucity of stream-able starters tomorrow.

Pitcher (bum): Edwin Jackson has struggled this season, and the Nationals are a tough assignment.

Vance Worley has a difficult match-up with the Orioles.

The Pirates and Orioles are both using TBA. I don't know how he'll be in two places at once.

The Rangers face Erik Bedard.

Hitter (power): The Red Sox face Mark Buehrle, so it's a good day to use Jonny Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Will Venable against Jeremy Hellickson.

Hang on to Gentry for the Bedard match-up.

Noteworthy news

Zack Greinke, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto are nearing rehab assignments.

Weather watch

The Brewers and Reds have a high probability of seeing thunderstorms throughout the game. Postponement would not be surprising.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 7:22am (15) Comments

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. III

As Week 6 draws to a close, I’ll choose to sing the praises of waiver wire protege and current success story Scott Kazmir, who slammed the door on Oakland in a 10-strikeout performance yesterday. Obviously, he’s already starting to gain traction in mixed leagues, as is Dee Gordon, who was hitting above .300 since his call-up last week. Meanwhile, I’ll choose to look down at the ground and rub my neck as I mention the likes of Lucas Harrell and Jose Quintana, neither of whom have impressed all that much since making cameo appearances on the wire. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how Jack Weiland, my waiver wire wingman, somewhat courageously suggested that John Lackey could once again be useful in mixed leagues, evidenced by three decent starts entering Thursday’s action.

Today, we’ll take a look at two troubled bullpens in Boston and Arizona as we mine for fantasy gold. In both cases, my column is a couple of days behind the ball, but surely some of these guys are still available in enough leagues as we near the beginning of Week 7, so let’s get started.

Junichi Tazawa | RP | Boston Red Sox | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 55.8 percent ESPN; 35 percent CBS
YTD: 15.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 11.15 K/9 / 1.76 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 78 IP / 3.45 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 2.91 BB/9

Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan hit the DL this week within three days of each other, plunging the Red Sox’ rotation into a crisis. The bullpen’s depth zapped, the Red Sox have deployed Tazawa, 26, as the team’s closer, a role he’ll retain at least heading into the upcoming week.

Bailey, 28, who excelled in the role in his brief time at the closer’s helm, is ailing from sore right biceps he suffered late last month, and on Monday, he was retroactively placed on the DL. Meanwhile, Hanrahan hit the disabled list on Wednesday with a forearm strain after he “just couldn’t take it anymore” two days earlier in a blown save against the Twins. Although an early MRI showed no structural damage in Hanrahan’s elbow, the team moved him to the 60-day DL yesterday, and even if he doesn’t undergo surgery, it’s clear that his fantasy value has been nuked for much of 2013, making him droppable across the board.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s a bit unfortunate that Tazawa is stuck behind two established closers in the Red Sox’ bullpen, because his credentials at the age of 26 are nice to look at: 8.31 K/9 and a 1.87 walk rate, a career 3.23 FIP in 86.2 innings and a strong ability to strand runners. This year, he’s off to an even better start, and has seen his average fastball velocity tick up to 93 mph, though he does have two blown saves among his 16 appearances.

Unless Bailey’s injury is more catastrophic than was originally let on, there’s no chance we’re looking at a new long-term closer change right now, despite Tazawa’s appeal. Heck, Bailey is due to come back on Tuesday, so Tazawa might not even have that much value for owners in weekly leagues looking to pick up some cheap saves in Week 7. We’ll keep an eye on Bailey’s progress (and whether he'll need a rehab assignment early next week), and with Hanrahan gone, Tazawa is now the logical No. 2 man in Boston’s bullpen. Considering the Jersey boy's own vulnerability, a future scenario where Tazawa gets another chance to step up in 2013 is not inconceivable.

Recommendation: Green light in all leagues until Bailey’s return.

Heath Bell | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 40 percent Yahoo ownership; 35.8 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 2.64 FIP / 12.56 K/9 / 1.88 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 62.3 IP / 3.10 FIP / 9.67 K/9 / 2.89 BB/9

David Hernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 11.5 percent ESPN; 18 percent CBS
YTD: 15.2 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 4.60 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 68.2 IP / 3.70 FIP / 10.75 K/9 / 3.93 BB/9

It’s been a good run in Arizona for J.J. Putz, who’s been a top fantasy earner for the past two seasons. But those days seem to be quickly nearing an end, as the right-hander is plagued by a right elbow strain. For a guy who’s gotten positively abused so far in 2013 (four blown saves in nine chances and a 1.58 WHIP), this news sounds not the least bit ominous, and Putz owners need to untangle themselves from the 36-year-old’s immediate future right away.

That could set up a classic closer battle in Arizona, featuring an experienced name player in Bell and a top set up man in Hernandez, both of whom are qualified for the job.

We’ll start with Bell, whom manager Kirk Gibson said on Wednesday would get first dibs at the ninth inning, proving it by letting him earn the save that night against the Dodgers. Still, despite averaging 38 saves over the past four seasons and being considered a top reliever on the free agent market just 18 months ago, Bell hardly steps up immediately as a set-him-and-forget-him closer option, not after he was demoted by the Marlins last year following a nightmarish first half. In 2013, Bell’s slightly diminished fastball velocity might be responsible for what’s been a bad 29.7 percent line drive rate, which in turn is manifested in an unsightly .417 BABIP. At the same time, however, I’m encouraged by a 9.2 swinging strike rate and the 12.56 K/9 it’s produced, especially in contrast to a 1.88 BB/9, even if it’s necessary to acknowledge what’s just a 15-appearance sample size.

But since we won’t know for a while if Bell can fully regain the magic of his Padres days, we might as well familiarize himself with Hernandez, Arizona’s eighth-inning guardian. With a combined a 2.94 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP between 2011 and 2012, Hernandez, who turns 28 on Monday, established himself as one of the National League’s best setup men entering the year. But it’s been a rough start to 2013 for him so far, and with Gibson clearly preferring Bell’s experience, Hernandez is merely a handcuff option in fantasy until the ex-Padre falters.

Recommendation: Add Bell across the board while keeping an eye on Hernandez.

Kelly Johnson | Tampa Bay Rays | 2B | 24 percent Yahoo ownership; 33 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 105 PA / .283 / .362 / .489 with 5 HR and 4 SB
ZiPS updated: 559 PA / .239 / .325 / .409 with 19 HR and 14 SB

Back in the good old days of early 2011, Johnson ranked among the top second basemen to target in fantasy, coming off a .866 OPS season that was padded with 26 homers and 13 steals. Unfortunately, the batting average took a nosedive in the next two seasons, and by the time 2013 dawned, the 31-year-old had dipped below the radar screens of many mixed league owners.

But as we embark to enter Week 7, we applaud Johnson’s .283 average and 138 wRC+, because not only are those numbers solid, but they’re even more valuable as a middle infielder. Too bad they’re largely the byproduct of a BABIP surge (.339 entering Thursday’s action) and a generous HR/FB rate that is out of character for an eight-year veteran. It’d be nice to believe that Johnson’s bat has suddenly been invigorated with some kind of magic power, but a 15 percent line drive rate is nothing to write home about, especially as his strikeout rate remains stuck at nearly 25 percent.

Obviously, a second baseman with pop will find a home in large pockets of fantasy baseball, and in Johnson’s case, his outfield eligibility will make him even more attractive. But his value will take a dive once his batting average comes back down to earth, and with hurlers like Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen lined up in Week 7, that decline might get started in the very near future.

Recommendation: I’m passing in mixed leagues unless someone I care about gets hurt.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:17am (5) Comments

Thursday, May 09, 2013

The Roto Grotto: rates versus opportunities

Z-Scores allow you to compare rate and counting statistics because they scale each category based on the average and standard deviation of that category. However, they do not address the issue of opportunity. As a reader pointed out last week, Felix Hernandez went one for three last season, but his .333 batting average was not more valuable in fantasy than the .319 batting average Ryan Braun produced over 598 at bats.

There are several reasons there is not an easy answer. First, the issue applies to counting stats as well as rate stats. Last season, Jose Reyes and Ben Revere each stole 40 bases, but Reyes needed 716 plate appearances while Revere needed only 553 plate appearances. If you were only concerned about winning steals, then Revere was clearly more valuable. You could replace him with a waiver-wire player for the 36 fewer games he played than Reyes and pick up a handful of extra steals.

The Reyes-Revere example illustrates the second complication. There is an additional underlying opportunity that owners have to consider, which is chances to start a player. Hypothetically, two players could have the same number of plate appearances and the same number of stolen bases but play in a different number of games. Over the course of the season, the difference in number of plate appearances for players batting in different spots in the order or batting in the same spot but on teams with different offensive levels can be significant, as Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN recently showed. In addition, players with clear platoon splits tend to pinch hit or be pulled in the late innings of games because of pitcher match-ups.

So, for every statistic, you need to account for opportunities to start a player, and with rate statistics, you need to account for differences in opportunities within each opportunity to start. Your league type will determine the number of opportunities you have to start a player, but I’ll consider leagues with daily lineups for this so I can use games played to approximate it.

First, I calculated each counting stat per games played. Returning to an earlier example, Jose Reyes stole 40 bases in 160 games in 2012, which is 0.25 steals per game. Ben Revere stole 40 bases in 124 games, which is 0.32 steals per game.

Next, I calculated the Z-Scores of counting stats per game. I followed the same method that I used to calculate the Z-Scores for season totals, but substituted the means and standard deviations of those per game statistics. Reyes and Revere had a zSB of 4.00 and 2.90, respectively.

For rate stats, the per game averages are the same as the season averages, but I can then scale those Z-Scores based on opportunities. Last season, Derek Jeter led baseball with 683 at bats. I can use that as my denominator. For example, Felix Hernandez had a raw Z-Score of about 2.45 because of his .333 batting average. However, if I scale that with his three at bats divided by the 683 maximum possible at bats, his scaled zAvg is only 0.01. In contrast, Ryan Braun has a scaled zAvg of 1.63 despite a lesser .319 average because of his 598 at bats.

Now, I finally have counting and rate stats apples to apples. A simple addition of the Z-Scores in each category provides an overall value, similar to a player rate. Here is the top-10 from 2012:

Player	Season	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	1.88	4.45	1.33	3.71	1.66	13.02
Ryan Braun	2012	2.64	2.06	2.11	2.13	1.63	10.57
Miguel Cabrera	2012	2.75	-0.51	2.92	1.96	1.95	9.07
Josh Hamilton	2012	3.01	-0.17	2.93	2.09	0.74	8.61
Andrew McCutchen	2012	1.60	1.04	1.41	1.99	1.80	7.85
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	2.82	0.42	2.12	1.54	0.63	7.52
Giancarlo Stanton	2012	3.16	-0.15	1.94	1.50	0.68	7.13
Jose Bautista	2012	3.05	-0.07	1.98	2.09	-0.14	6.92
Matt Kemp	2012	1.89	0.40	1.65	2.11	0.83	6.88

As you can see, different players reach the top in different ways. Four of the top-10 players are actually negative contributors in a category (or two).

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:33am (0) Comments

Swing rates: the John Farrell effect

In 2012, the Boston Red Sox had exactly one pitcher finish inside the bottom 50 of major league baseball in a statistic called ‘Swing Rate Against,’ (tracked by Baseball Prospectus) which is the percentage of the time opposing hitters swing against a certain pitcher. Last year, the John Farrell-managed Blue Jays had five pitchers finish among the 50 lowest Swing Rates Against.

This year, without John Farrell, the Blue Jays currently have two pitchers in the bottom 50 in Swing Rate Against, and after adding him, the Red Sox have four pitchers in the bottom 20. Usually, a manager doesn’t have that much of an impact on the way already-established guys pitch, but Farrell is clearly a pitching-centric manager, and a swing that huge cannot solely be attributed to coincidence. So, what’s changed about the way the Red Sox pitchers are pitching this year?

Having a low swing rate itself doesn’t necessarily correlate to success. Pitchers can put up good stats with high or low swing rates—Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey are all in the top 10 highest Swing Rates Against so far this year. So, what specifically has changed about Ryan Dempster, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Felix Doubront to garner this lower Swing Rate Against, as well as make them improve as pitchers? Let’s go one by one and see how each has changed their pitching approach this season.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz has shown the starkest improvement among the Red Sox starters this year, which was mirrored by him also having the starkest contrast in his Swing Rate Against the last two seasons. In 2012, Buchholz posted a 44.55 percent Swing Rate Against, good for 113th in baseball, whereas this year he has a 38.14 percent mark, good for 13th in the league.

That change can be largely attributed to a shift in Buchholz’s pitching style and control—in 2012, the Sox starter managed to land only 52.1 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, and this year he’s upped that number all the way to 66.8 percent. That has led to hitters chasing less against him, but on the other hand, also to way fewer hitter-friendly counts, allowing Buchholz to remain ahead of the hitter in most at bats against him. I think Buchholz’s newfound control is legitimate, and I have him in my top 25 starters the rest of the way.

Jon Lester: The biggest change for Lester this year has been the efficacy of his fastball. In his prime, Lester’s best pitch was his cutter, but as of last year (and continuing into this year) the pitch has been below average for him. The meat of Lester’s arsenal is his fastball/cutter combination, and if those two things can’t play off each other, he won’t have success.

That being said, this year, even if the cutter isn’t back to its old tricks, it is setting up his four seam fastball really nicely. This is leading the pitch to a Fangraphs pitch value of 5.3 so far this year, good for 12th among starters in the majors. Lester is utilizing both his four-seamer and cutter more than in 2012, using the two pitches 61 percent of the time (then) versus 69 percent of the time (now). Even if the cutter hasn’t shown efficacy itself, it has helped his fastball regain its former value. The more he uses both, the more comfortable he’ll be.

Ryan Dempster: Dempster already garnered very few swings-against coming into this year, with a 38.60 percent Swing Rate Against in 2012. That’s nothing compared to his 32.13 percent rate this year, good for lowest in the major leagues. Farrell has really shifted the way Dempster has used his arsenal, as he went from a mostly sinkers guy, throwing his fastball only 18 percent of the time in 2012, to a mostly fourseam fastballs guy, using it 41 percent of the time this season.

Not only is he using the fourseamer more, though, Dempster is also locating the pitch significantly better, largely by just not leaving it up as much. In 2012, he left his fastball in the upper part of the zone or higher 34.5 percent of the time, and so far in 2013 that number has dropped down to 25.5 percent despite using the pitch much more often. This improved command and greater utilization of the fastball has contributed to Dempster’s career-high strikeout rate and, while I don’t think he will stay at that 11.51 K/9 number, I do think he will finish the season above 9.0 K/9 for the first time in his career.

Felix Doubront: Doubront is the only pitcher on this list who is a true "buy low" right now. The biggest shift in Doubront’s pitching style makes the fact that he is garnering way less swings this year make a lot of sense: last year, 19.2 percent of his pitches were in the ‘middle plane’ of the strike zone (neither outside the zone nor on the inner or outer third). This season, only 15.7 percent of his pitches are in the middle plane and in the strike zone.

Focusing his attention on the inner and outer planes of the plate has led Doubront to elevate his walk rate, but as he works out the kinks and works on his control, he should be able to get that walk rate back down into the 4.0 BB/9 range. Right now, Doubront’s BABIP of .397 is the third highest in major league baseball, and that should lead savvy owners to be able to acquire him for a fraction of his value. Doubront has serious strikeout upside, and I’d project him for a 3.50-3.75 ERA the rest of the way with some solid positive regression.

Overall, the moral to the Red Sox story is that John Farrell isn’t the type of manager who has one, overarching theory that he applies to all of his pitchers; rather, he is the type of manager that takes each pitcher case by case and figures out the best strategy to maximize their specific talents. Going forward, any pitcher that goes to the Sox should be treated with the leeway we used to associate with Dave Duncan and still associate with Don Cooper—Farrell just has a way of figuring out how to make these guys pitch their best.

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:30am (6) Comments

Wednesday, May 08, 2013

The daily grind: 5-8-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday, I expanded upon why Jonathan Pettibone has produced good results but isn't trustworthy. Still, a match-up against the Giants is potentially worth exploring. He's opposed by Barry Zito, who also might be worth an add.

A.J. Griffin should be owned in the majority of mixed leagues. He faces the Indians, which is a decent enough match-up to start.

Pitcher (bum): If Coors Field can dodge the rain in the forecast, the combination of David Phelps and Juan Nicasio promises runs.

The Astros will face Joe Blanton.

It's doubtful that Ricky Romero worked out his issues in one month.

Luis Mendoza will see the Orioles. Rain's in the forecast for this one, too.

Hitter (power): The readers let me get away with a silly recommendation for Travis Hafner yesterday, so I'll call myself out. At Coors, there is no DH.

Some regulars are worth a look including Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes, and Daniel Nava.

Carlos Pena against Blanton is another great match-up.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable is set to face Ricky Nolasco.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but has a difficult assignment against Matt Moore.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Bartolo Colon versus Scott Kazmir is an opportunity for two pitchers who may perform well. Kazmir is only for the ballsiest among us, but he's showing his strongest whiff rate since 2008 and is coming off an excellent start. He's likely to regress, but maybe he's that fluky guy who comes back from the dead.

John Lackey has looked solid thus far and might be worth a peek against the Twins. Personally, I'm worried about his high strikeout rate, which I think will decline since he's not generating more whiffs than usual.

Here's another heavily qualified recommendation: Julio Teheran. It's been a bit of a mixed bag with him this season. His velocity is down and he seems to be catching too much of the plate, which could explain an elevated BABIP and HR/FB ratio. On the plus side, he's limiting walks and generating plenty of whiffs, though they aren't translating to a high strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): One of these times I'll pick the Braves' feast or famine offense and they'll feast. They see Ryan Vogelsong tomorrow.

Let's see if I can jinx Dillon Gee into performing well. The Pirates have a solid lineup, so it will be a tough assignment for the struggling righty. His velocity is way down, so he is a candidate to be replaced by Ryan Wheeler when the time comes.

The Robinson Canos will face Jeff Francis, who's exploitable against any lineup not named the Marlins at this point. The Canos will be without their best hitter (statistically)—Hafner.

Hitter (power): Big Nate Freiman is likely to be in the lineup against Kazmir.

Break out the Pirates. Particularly, Garrett Jones and Travis Snider.

Jason Vargas is solid enough, but it's still worth giving Chris Carter a spin.

Brandon Belt seems to have a good match-up against Teheran.

Hitter (speed): Davis will see another tough lefty in David Price.

I don't usually reach for Kelly Johnson, but you can give him a try tomorrow against a struggling R.A. Dickey.

Noteworthy news

J.A. Happ was the latest victim of a comeback liner. He's reported to be stable.

Junichi Tazawa is expected to close for the Red Sox. I hope you have heard that already.

Weather watch

Games in Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh, New York, and Colorado could all see some amount of rain and storms. In other words, it's going to be a wet day across the majors.

These are my favorite days to play daily leagues because I can increase my odds of winning simply by selecting players in dry games.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. II

Waiver wire pals, there is something I need to confess. Okay? Yes? Good. Here I go.

When it comes to the Red Sox closers, whom I feature here (seemingly) every week, because the situation changes (seemingly) every minute, I haven't got a clue. Zero clues to be had by this guy.

Last week as soon as I rejoiced that Andrew Bailey had been officially named the Red Sox closer, he missed a save opportunity with bicep soreness that ultimately landed him on the disabled list. Then replacement Joel Hanrahan, who himself had been replaced by Bailey but regained the closer role in Bailey's absence, landed back on the disabled list for the second time this season. So now it's ... you know what? Nope. Not going to do it. I give up. White flag, being waved, by yours truly.

Feels good to get this off my chest.

A recap of other recent players we've featured, now with less frustration!

Scott Feldman spun another gem Tuesday night, this time against the Rangers. I'd recommend him more strongly if I had any clue (gee, that sounds familiar) what the Cubs were going to do upon the return of Matt Garza, who made his second rehab start for the club and according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers is as few as 10 days away from returning. The team has five spots for Jeff Samardzija (not going anywhere), Edwin Jackson (probably not going anywhere), Matt Garza (when he returns), Carlos Villanueva (he of the 2.85 ERA), Travis Wood (2.50 ERA, and the only lefty in the rotation), and Feldman (lights out lately). Scott Baker will also return at some point (maybe), so the Cubs are looking at two men out here. Anyone who says they know what the Cubs will do with the rotation when Garza returns is Theo Epstein. Beyond that, they are full of bologna. Tread carefully here.

(Did I say less frustration? I don't recall saying that. That doesn't sound like something I would say.)

Hey, at least Kevin Slowey, Eric Stults, and Roberto Hernandez remain solid additions for owners in need of starting pitching.

Justin Ruggiano, a player Karl targeted earlier this year, has been hot of late as well.

Today let's look at a few other outfielders you may be thinking of adding.

Marcell Ozuna | Miami Marlins | OF | ESPN: 8.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 21 percent; CBS: 28 percent
YTD: .404/.448/.667 in 29 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .255/.303/.434 in 453 plate appearances

In lieu of ~~Mike~~ Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins turned their lonely eyes to Marcell Ozuna, who made his debut last week at the tender age of 22, having played only 10 games at Double-A ball or higher. He's made quite an impression since, as his .476 wOBA can attest. Fantasy league owners have noticed as well, as his ownership rate at CBS jumped from two percent to 28 in one week.

I trotted over to the prospects desk here at THT Global Enterprises (not our real name, and "ambled" would be a more appropriate verb) to get in-house prospect guru Jeff Moore's take on the callup. His full thoughts can be found on his site here, but this is what he told me fantasy owners can expect from Ozuna this season:

In general, he can contribute some power, but it will come at the cost of batting average, and if it's a points league where strikeouts have a negative value, he won't even be worth the home runs. He's absolutely not ready, needed at least another full season in the minors. He's extremely talented but needed a lot more time to figure out how to use it.

I imagine he's only going to be there while Stanton is out, unless he plays well. The Marlins are desperate for power, so if he runs into a few home runs and keeps his batting average above .200, they could get greedy and try to pair him with Stanton. Either way, the league will figure him out and he's going to strike out a ton—enough that it won't let his power play in the majors, at least not yet.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in NL-only leagues, but Ozuna probably won't keep up his Bondsian level of production, and will probably struggle more than he's worth in mixed leagues. This is not the call-up of Wil Myers, who has seemingly been ready to give the majors a shot for two seasons now.

David DeJesus | Chicago Cubs | OF | ESPN: 7.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 18 percent
YTD: .286/.358/.561 in 109 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .269/.347/.440 in 521 plate appearances

Quick, who leads major league outfielders in ISO? Justin Upton? Okay. Let's make this a little tougher. Who is currently 13th?

Really, you guessed David DeJesus? Is it because his name appears in bold five lines above this? I need to get better at this stuff.

Anyway, yeah, David DeJesus is tearing the cover off the ball right now, and nobody seems to care. So, is it real? Should you rush out and add him? The answer is a little complicated.

First and foremost: no, the power is not real. The last time DeJesus had this kind of power was during a 12-game (small sample) stint in 2003, his first taste of major league baseball. Since then he's played 1,173 games, and his careeer ISO is .140, with a high of .152 and a low of .112. He's had consistently decent power, but he's never been a big bopper.

Digging further into his 2013 numbers, DeJesus' current HR/FB rate of 14.3 percent is more than double his career average of 6.8 percent. He's unlikely to sustain that level all season, and accordingly his power will drop as well.

But is he worth owning otherwise? If your league rewards walks (or on-base) and you could use a boost in runs, then DeJesus can help.

Recommendation: He can help, but not in the ways it might seem by taking a quick glance down the list of NL OPS leaders.

Matt Joyce | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | ESPN: 24.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .212/.237/.435 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .237/.329/.436 in 493 plate appearances

It's easy to forget about Matt Joyce, what with all of the hubbub around Wil Myers and all. His .212 batting average doesn't help him stand out in a positive way, either.

Aside from that, though, there's a capable player buried in here, and one who is currently undervalued by fantasy leagues, especially those with Yahoo! and CBS. It's interesting that his ownership rates in ESPN leagues are relatively high, especially considering ESPN leagues are generally the shallowest, and by a wide margin.

Assuming Joyce can bring his line drive rate up from his absurdly low 9.5 percent, his BABIP of .203 should also rise, and with it his batting average. This will make his triple slash line look much more attractive. He'll never challenge for the Triple Crown, but he can provide power and plenty of walks.

Recommendation:Worth adding for outfield help in mixed leagues.

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:15am

Tuesday, May 07, 2013

The daily grind: 5-7-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): There are a few good arms for today, but none of them have a particularly friendly match-up.

Justin Grimm is making his way onto my teams but he has a tough assignment in the Brewers.

Zach McAllister is a frequent denizen of the Grind, but a game against the A's is no easy task.

J.A. Happ sees the worst lineup of the bunch when he faces the Rays, but he's also the least talented of this trio.

Pitcher (bum): If the Pirates game isn't interrupted, I'll predict continuing struggles for Aaron Harang. I do think he'll settle down eventually, but he may need a few more starts.

I'll take the Red Sox over lefty Scott Diamond.

Hitter (power): Brandon Belt has warmed up recently. Kyle Kendrick is still expected to be lefty prone, although AT&T Park is not the best place to bet on home runs.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava will face the above-mentioned Diamond.

C.J. Wilson isn't looking like much more than a decent arm these days. Chris Carter could benefit.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is set to face Josh Beckett.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone has gotten good results thus far, but I wouldn't necessarily trust that. In particular, a strikeout rate around seven K/9 seems fluky when combined with a 4.4 percent whiff rate. Something has to give there. He's also walking only about one batter per nine innings, which doesn't jibe with his minor league performances. In short, expect fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an overall mediocre line.

Barry Zito opposes Pettibone. I was a bit surprised to find him 47 percent owned. The Phillies aren't a very offensive-minded club, which is the only reason I mention Zito.

A.J. Griffin is 36 percent owned and too good to be available on waivers. Do note that he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so you might want to stay away from bandboxes.

Felix Doubront has a pleasant match-up against the Twins. His 5.67 ERA belies a 2.87 FIP.

Pitcher (bum): Last week I recommended in favor of David Phelps. This week, I recommend against. He pitches in Coors tomorrow and is opposed by another exploitable pitcher, Juan Nicasio.

I think the Astros will like facing Joe Blanton.

Ricky Romero is back, but it's too soon to say if he's any better.

I'll draw the line at Luis Mendoza against the Orioles, but I could name more exploitable pitchers.

Hitter (power): Justin Masterson still has slight lefty problems, so this is a good day to go with Seth Smith and Brandon Moss route.

Another lefty and another start for Gomes and Nava.

Is Carlos Pena still around? Because Blanton is a juicy match-up for him.

Travis Hafner is 40 percent owned, but where he is available, a start against Nicasio in Coors seems quite enjoyable.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable will see Ricky Nolasco.

Lefty Matt Moore means Rajai Davis will probably start. Unfortunately, the match-up is difficult.

Weather watch

Storms are expected to interrupt several east coast games, affecting the Tigers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, and Orioles. The Braves and Reds may see a touch of the same storm system.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:38am

A.J. Ellis: hardly swinging, hardly missing

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote an excellent piece on Josh Hamilton and the degradation of his batting eye. Hamilton has been swinging at some terrible pitches this season, and pitchers are beginning to figure out that they can throw just about anything to get Hamilton out.

We’ve seen only a month of baseball, and we all know how meaningful many results thus far are. The good thing about plate discipline statistics, however, is that they don’t take much time to stabilize. Things will obviously change over the course of a season, but April plate discipline data give us something more meaningful to talk about than any April counting statistic does.

With this in mind, I began to look through the FanGraphs plate discipline leaders of 2013. If you sort the leader board one way, you’ll find the league’s free swingers. We know these guys pretty well. Hamilton is ruining his career, while Pablo Sandoval (somehow) continues to make a living off hitting terrible pitches. We hear a lot about this group, and it makes sense that we do. We enjoy watching hitters flail at all sorts of pitches—sometimes connecting, and sometimes looking like Vladimir Guerrero after a night out.

If you sort the leader board the other way, though, you’ll find a group that gets a lot less notoriety (well, at least outside of the sabermetric community). These plate discipline leaders swing at pitches outside the strike zone about a third of the time a Sandoval or Hamilton does. At the top of this list (and by a large margin), you’ll find A.J. Ellis.

Ellis has always had above-average plate discipline, but his eye really improved in 2012. Last year, Ellis saw more pitches per plate appearance (4.43) than any other major league hitter. This year, he remains on top in that regard. The catcher has swung at 13.4 percent of all pitches he has seen outside of the strike zone. He has whiffed at only 23 pitches (out of 473) thus far.

When a career backup catcher suddenly grabs hold of a major league starting job after almost 10 years in the minor leagues, you would think that we would take notice. Ellis has managed to stay under the radar, since he doesn’t hit for power (or average, for that matter). Manager Don Mattingly has typically slotted Ellis in the five or six spot for Los Angeles, and it is possible that he benefits from hitting in the heart of the lineup, behind Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier. These hitters have average plate discipline, but they sure appear more threatening than Ellis does. Is it possible that, after dancing around these three hitters, pitchers give Ellis great pitches to hit?

This argument is a convincing one, and the data provide some support for it. This season, 48.3 percent of all pitches Ellis has seen have been in the strike zone. In 2012, the overall league zone percentage was 44.9. Ellis has seen a significantly greater number of pitches in the zone this year than the average hitter typically does, and his high walk totals become even more impressive in this context. However, Ellis posted similar (though not quite as spectacular) plate discipline rates in 2012, a year in which he hit primarily out of the eight hole.

Ellis is also seeing a relatively high number of fastballs (66 percent of all pitches seen) this season, which is obviously working to his advantage in terms of plate discipline and overall offensive production. I do buy the argument that pitchers will throw relatively more fastballs to Ellis after facing Kemp, Gonzalez and Ethier, but we can’t evaluate that argument until we see Ellis hit in other lineup spots.

Is it sustainable?

It’s extremely likely that we will see Ellis’ discipline regress, since he is outperforming his 2012 plate discipline rates. Ellis can continue to be valuable asset for the Dodgers, but it is quite possible that he will have to start swinging the bat a little more often if he is going to do that. Only Brett Gardner and Bobby Abreu have posted lower swing percentages over the last three years, and these hitters give pitchers added motivation to throw strikes. Gardner is dangerous when gets on base, and Abreu could still hit for power when he posted a swing rate of 32.9 percent.

Some might hope that Ellis will start to hit the ball harder when does swing thebat. He will continue to see a good number of fastballs, but he won’t if he starts to hit for power. If Ellis becomes a hitting threat, as opposed to a walking threat, pitchers will also start to offer him fewer pitches in the strike zone.

Kevin Youkilis exemplifies this evolution well. In his early years, Youkilis posted high on-base percentages and little power. Many criticized his patient ways, and some argued that he didn’t hit enough home runs to be a major league corner infielder. In 2008, Youkilis responded with more than a few of those home runs. His zone percentage fell after that breakout year, and he began to see a lot more breaking balls. Youkilis responded well as his plate discipline skills were really put to the test, and he became much more valuable offensively.

This is obviously all speculation, as Ellis has more than a few hills to climb before becoming the next Kevin Youkilis. In many ways, Scott Hatteberg is a much more realistic comparison. Hatteberg’s inability to hit for power was really a blessing in disguise, as his ability to get on base was continually overlooked by pitchers and opposing pitching coaches.

A.J. Ellis has found a way to be successful at the major league level, and I’m sure he isn’t going to try to fix what isn’t broken. The Dodgers should be delighted with what they are getting out of their 32-year-old catcher. While I did bring some attention to his name with this article, my real hope is that we all continue to overlook A.J. Ellis. That’s how the Scott Hattebergs of the world operate best.

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:09am

Baseball Press: a fantasy secret weapon

It's tough to recall the exact moment I first discovered Baseball Press, but I do know it's been a daily stop the past two seasons, and with good reason. In standard leagues, you might be able to get away with a set it and forget it approach. But for those of us in deeper leagues, ones where platoon and part-time players have value, the aggregation provided by Baseball Press is invaluable.

Some of the features Baseball Press offers include lineup information almost as it happens, probable starting pitchers, recent bullpen pitch counts, a log of the recent lineups for all 30 teams, and weather reports for that day's games. I recently sat down (across the interwebs) with one of the founders and operators of Baseball Press, Reggie Yinger, to get the story behind the site, and to find out where it's headed next.

Q: How did Baseball Press begin? Was there a void you saw for the information you present, or was this information you saw elsewhere that you thought could be presented better?

Yinger: Baseball Press began in the summer of 2009. I approached a friend who is also a computer programmer and wanted to create my own fantasy baseball site. Previously, I had written baseball articles for other websites, but really wanted the freedom to do my own thing. I think we saw a void in baseball sites as most have a "cookie-cutter" feel and we wanted to get away from that, providing a unique and different approach.

How many users do you guys currently have? How much has it grown since 2009? And was it slow and steady, or was there a period in which you saw a large uptick in traffic?

Yinger: According to our analytics, just under 100,000 people have come to Baseball Press in April. However, since we don't sell anything, we focus more on page views and feedback to determine user interest rather than isolating users, so the growth we view is based on traffic not users. And based on traffic, we saw a substantial jump in traffic in 2009 when we decided to do lineups, and it's been doubling every year since then.

What were your original intentions for the site when it began? How has it evolved since?

Yinger: Good question. I think the original intent in 2009 was to have a website where myself and other potential writers could write about fantasy baseball and have an "anything goes" mentality. We tried to focus on "fantasy baseball" but really wanted to write about anything baseball related. I thought we might write a few articles here and there, and to be honest, I thought the "coolness" of a website might die out. However, we first added lineup information to the website in 2011 and have really focused on helping fantasy baseball players since 2011. We added all MLB lineups in 2011, the My Lineup feature in 2012, and then the Bullpen Usage report in 2013. So yeah, I would say we have evolved to helping fantasy baseball players (like myself).

How the sausage is made: how does Baseball Press work? Is it updated manually when you find lineups posted online? Do you have go-to sources? Or is it automated in some way? How long does it take for lineups to be posted before they appear on Baseball Press?

Yinger: The sausage is made quite easily. I first designed the lineup concept during spring training in 2011 and it was originally updated manually. However, as you can imagine, this resulted in constantly having someone watch lineup information in case of scratches. However, after myself and the other co-founder noticed that the MLB Lineups feature was catching on, we decided to do some computer programming and automate the process. We use multiple sources that consist of beat writers and team affiliated accounts, with a majority of the information coming from Twitter. We typically hope to have lineups for all games within our system and on the website 3-4 hours before the game and we feel like we accomplished this. However, in some cases, we may post a lineup an hour before the game, depending on the source.

Can you quantify the value of the information on your site, particularly for owners in daily leagues? How much of an advantage do you see in having lineup information as it becomes available, and also weather reports, recent bullpen usage, etc?

Yinger: I'm a huge fantasy baseball nerd and I know that this tool is invaluable. Fantasy baseball websites that host the leagues (ESPN, Yahoo!, etc) try to inform users if a player isn't starting, but this information is typically delayed or incorrect. I think having this information hours before a game is great for daily league players because it allows owners to prepare their team for that night's games, whether it be reviewing ballpark factors, weather, or matchups for pitchers vs. batters.

Speaking of the bullpen usage: is that a new feature, or one I just never noticed last year? What practical use do you see for owners using this feature?

Yinger: The bullpen usage is a new feature for 2013. The story behind this feature is simple. I currently play in a fantasy league that counts "holds" as a category. I really dislike fantasy pitching categories and decided I would "stream relievers" simply for the ability to pick up "holds". For example, if David Hernandez has thrown two or three days in a row, he's likely to have off the next day. With the Bullpen Usage page, I can see this information and pick up another late inning reliever for the day in order to try and accumulate a "hold". If you're not into holds, I think owners can use this information to try and pick up "saves" on the cheap. If they see Jason Grilli has pitched three days in a row, they might try and pick up Mark Melancon from the waiver wire. It's also just a nifty tool to see how managers are using their bullpen.

Is there a reason lineups only go back one week, and there is not a deeper historical archive of team's lineups?

Yinger: Lineups currently go back one week (or the last 7 games) on the team page only. However, if you want to see older data, you can go to the main lineups page and select the date and view all lineups from that date. I think you have just booked our next project with that question.

You mentioned on the site that you will not be creating an application that works with Apple products, but that you are working to make the mobile site sufficient for all smartphone users to use. How is that progressing? Do you have an ETA for that mobile site to be running?

Yinger: After great success with our Android application in the Google Play store, we decided to try and make an Apple application. Unfortunately, Apple rejected our application and deemed it to be "too simple". We decided to not continue down the path with Apple after a first rejection (for cost and time reasons). To try and make every mobile device happy (tablets and phones), we've decided to make the entire Baseball Press website mobile friendly. This means that iPhone users can view all the information on their phones and not have to worry about formatting. The progress is coming along nicely. We pushed back the mobile functionality in order to have the Bullpen Usage page ready and in production before the season started. We should have the mobile design finished by mid to late May.

What's cooking for the future of Baseball Press? Any big developments we should get excited about?

Yinger: Considering 30 percent of our viewers are looking at the site on a mobile device, and an iPhone version of our lineup app is the most requested item, the responsive design for the site is the most exciting thing for us. After that, we'll be looking at adjusting the My Lineup page to allow owners to add multiple teams, but our readers keep us on our toes, so a lot of it depends on you.

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:02am

The Verdict: keeping it on the DL

There are dozens of ways to customize a fantasy baseball league. Whether it is roto or points, head-to-head or cumulative, daily or weekly, keeper or non-keeper, mixed league or AL/NL only, you get the point. After making those decisions, you must decide how many teams to include in the league and then set roster limits including positions and the number of bench players allowed. After all of that, a decision that is often taken for granted is whether to allow for DL slots, and if so, how many.

Just like death and taxes are the only things guaranteed in life, injuries are all but assured in a fantasy baseball league. We see it almost every day where players go down with injuries, which wreaks havoc on major league teams as well as millions of fantasy baseball players. In actual baseball, teams can place their players on the disabled list where they remain safe and sound until they can come back. On fantasy teams, it isn't always so easy.

Depending on the number of teams and size of rosters in your league, the free agent pool tends to be lacking sufficient replacements when a player gets injured. That is why some leagues opt to not allow for DL slots at all. Sure, not having a DL slot creates drama, intrigue and true strategic planning when deciding whether to hold on to a player. But if a fantasy manager elects to build his bench with players at certain positions, he may not be able to replace that injured player without deviating from his strategy.

That is not to say that fantasy players are entitled to stay committed to the plans they made in the offseason or during the draft. But if we want to truly replicate some semblance of reality in our fantasy games, players need the flexibility to be able to stash certain injured players without being at the expense of someone else. This is why I advocate having DL slots available. But how many?

Deciding how many DL slots are available would logically be based on the number of teams in the league and the size of the rosters. One would think that the more teams and the bigger the rosters, the fewer DL spots a league should have. That does make some sense. But it also makes sense even if it is a smaller league with more limited rosters. Regardless of how many teams are in the league, it is advisable not to let fantasy players hoard injured players. I understand that teams are permitted to allocate their FAAB dollars or waiver positions however they want. But looking at the bigger picture and what is best for the league, the free agent pool should remain as viable as possible for as long as possible.

Most leagues I have participated in have a limit of three DL slots. I think this is a fair number to allow teams the flexibility to stash players who get injured, or even acquire players already injured. If a team sustained more than three injuries at a time, then it becomes a strategic decision who to hold on to and who to let go. This likely won't be an easy decision, but it is something that must be made to keep the size of rosters in check while also maximizing the free agent pool as much as possible.

The decision to have DL slots and the number permissible is something each league must decide. Some leagues prefer to play with the teams they drafted and not have any transactions at all. But if this is a point of contention in your league, it is advisable to settle on three DL slots because it is enough to compensate for a rash of injuries and few enough to prevent excessive hoarding of injured players.

Posted by Michael Stein at 3:01am

Monday, May 06, 2013

The daily grind: 5-6-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is back down to 28 percent owned and the only guy today that I can possibly recommend.

I suppose Nick Tepesch's command and control profile matches-up well with the Cubs.

Pitcher (bum): It's easy to forget that Chris Capuano is coming off the best season of an otherwise mediocre career. He's probably worth trying to exploit until he has a solid start.

Vance Worley has a tough assignment against the Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off his best outing in years, but the A's present a surprisingly difficult lineup to flummox.

Hitter (power): Cody Ross will see Capuano.

Seth Smith and Brandon Moss draw the righty.

You can try good 'ol Daniel Nava against Worley too.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia will face lefty Wade LeBlanc.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): There are a few names worth a shake today.

Justin Grimm looks like an under-the-radar core fantasy starter. He is opposed by a potent Brewers offense, so beware.

J.A. Happ finally gets a match-up against a mid-tier lineup.

Zach McAllister has a semi-difficult assignment against the A's.

Pitcher (bum): I think the Pirates will plunder the Mariners and Aaron Harang.

I'm predicting some struggles out of Scott Diamond tomorrow despite good results to date.

Hitter (power): Try Brandon Belt against Kyle Kendrick.

Jonny Gomes and Nava will face a hittable lefty.

C.J. Wilson is a nice opponent for Chris Carter.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra will see Josh Beckett.

Noteworthy news

Roy Halladay appears headed to the disabled list with an unspecified shoulder injury. I've been saying all season that he's throwing through a shoulder issue - I've watched enough tape of myself doing the same to know what it looks like.

Weather watch

Three games face a rain threat today, including two in California. The Braves and Reds are most likely to see delays or cancellation, but the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Marlins, and Padres may see some rare California rain.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am

The Hot Seat

The big news in baseball this week was Roy Halladay succumbing to the injury bug, and it seems as though the concerns about him during Spring Training were legitimate after all. There’s all sorts of speculation out there regarding who will take his rotation spot, so I’m going to dig deep and try to predict the Phillies’ next move.

After three consecutive quality starts, Halladay had a total meltdown on Tuesday, giving up eight runs on nine hits (including three home runs) and two walks in 3.2 innings against Cleveland. Then came Sunday, when he imploded in a most spectacular fashion, exiting after just 2.1 innings, having surrendered nine runs on four hits (including another homer), four walks and two hit-by-pitches.

It was the first time the 35-year-old had given up five or more runs in the first inning of a game since his rookie season in 1999. The most disturbing part is that he did this facing the Miami Marlins, whose lineup for the day looked more like a Triple-A roster: Juan Pierre, Chris Valaika, Placido Polanco, Justin Ruggiano, Marcell Ozuna, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Olivo, Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Slowey.

Coming into Sunday, Halladay’s average fastball velocity for the season was 89.9 mph. Against the Marlins, he averaged 88.2 mph on his heater. More alarming than the drop in velocity, which can fluctuate from start to start, was his fastball location, or complete lack thereof. In the eight plate appearances that ended with a fastball, the Marlins roasted Halladay for a single, a double, a homer, a walk and a hit batsman, while recording just three outs.

He also seemed to know he didn’t have command of his fastball (or his cutter, for that matter), as he threw nothing but curveballs in three-ball counts. After the game, Halladay admitted that his shoulder has been bothering him since before the Cleveland game, while Ruben Amaro said that Halladay will see Dr. Lewis Yocum and is almost certainly headed to the disabled list. With John Lannan expected out for at least another month, the Phillies will have to turn to their farm system for a replacement.

Phillies fans have been taking to Twitter all day to express their desire for the team to call up top prospect Jesse Biddle. Sure, his overall numbers in Double-A this year are extremely impressive (2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.37 K/9), but he recorded four walks while retiring just two batters before getting pulled after 41 pitches in his start on Saturday. He’s not ready.

The most likely candidate for a call-up is lefty Adam Morgan, another of the club’s top prospects who is pitching pretty well in Triple-A (3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.75 K/9 in six starts) after a spectacular 2012 season (3.35 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.21 BB/9) in 26 starts between High-A and Double-A.

When Lannan originally got hurt, Amaro said that Morgan was not an option to fill the rotation spot because he would have been pitching on short rest. It was even expected by many (myself included) that Morgan would replace Jonathan Pettibone the next time through the rotation. As it turned out, Pettibone has done an admirable job and hasn’t given the Phillies any reason to replace him yet. This time, it’s a different story. Morgan, like Halladay, pitched on Sunday and would be on normal rest to take Halladay’s rotation spot.

The problem with Morgan is that he isn’t currently on the team’s 40-man roster, so the Phillies would have to open up a spot for him. Tyler Cloyd, also in Triple-A, is on the 40-man and actually started six games for the major league club in 2012. Cloyd is coming off a fantastic start on Friday in which he allowed one run on four hits with ten strikeouts and zero walks in eight innings of work.

Unfortunately for Cloyd, that’s the only impressive start he’s had this year. He had given up at least three runs in all five of his previous starts, his K/BB ratio was just 1.83 before Friday’s gem, and even after that start he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Furthermore, despite the fact that he’s had good numbers in the minors throughout most of his career, Cloyd is little more than a warm body who has never been considered to be amongst the Phillies’ top 15 prospects. Ethan Martin also is on the 40-man, but he has been beyond horrible in Triple-A this year; I don’t feel the need to cite any stats other than his outrageous 8.06 BB/9.

By the time you’re reading this, it is possible that the Phillies have already announced their move. The thing is, it really doesn’t matter too much. The way I see it, it’s between Morgan and Cloyd.

If Cloyd gets the call, he’s worth an add only in the very deepest of NL-only leagues. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, his secondary offerings (cutter, curve, change-up) are all fringe-average or worse, and he has a four-seamer that pretty much tops out around 87 mph. Yay.

Morgan, however, has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter in the majors for years to come. The 23-year-old has good command of his deep arsenal, which includes a plus slider, a change-up and a curveball to go with his low-90s fastball.

He doesn’t have as much experience in the high minors as one would like, and Morgan may have to do some learning on the job at the major league level, but the potential is there for a solid fantasy starter. He’s worth adding in the majority of NL-only leagues and possibly even in very deep mixed formats.

Even if the Phillies go with Cloyd for now, Morgan still is worth a stash because he’s simply a better pitcher than either Cloyd or Pettibone. He’ll find a spot in this rotation.

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:07am

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. I

Greetings, fellow fantasy travelers. Just five days ago, Nolan Arenado was a fantasy neophyte looking to establish himself in the vocabulary of casual fans, but that was before he cranked out two home runs, including a grand slam. Brian Dozier, still the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter for the time being, has yet to establish himself as a regular fantasy play, though Justin Grimm posted nine strikeouts in a start against the White Sox on Thursday night.

Speaking of waiver wire alumni, Garrett Richards lost his rotation spot to Jerome Williams, Andrew Cashner’s control issues surfaced in a bad start against the Cubs, and Aaron Hicks actually hit a home run in Week 5, even though he continues to struggle to keep his head above water at the big league level.

But you didn’t come here to read about yesterday’s mashed potatoes. Let’s get to work dissecting some new guests on today’s waiver wire column.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; .3 percent ESPN; 6 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.42 K/9 / 3.77 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 64.3 IP / 5.72 FIP / 7.13 K/9 / 4.48 BB/9

Ah, 2007. Motorola’s RAZR was the hot cell phone to own. Rudy Giuliani was the odds-on favorite to represent the Republican Party in the upcoming presidential race, where he was sure to face Hillary Clinton. The Mets? They were actually good—well, good if you subtract the last 17 games of the season.

But it was also a season in which a young phenom named Scott Kazmir ran the table in the American League, leading the pack with 239 punchouts while compiling a tasty 5.1 WAR. For the 23-year-old, the future couldn’t look brighter, as the ace so many thought the Mets gave away in the Victor “10 minutes to glory” Zambrano trade made his bones among Major League Baseball’s best.

Unfortunately, the baseball gods would have no part of it, banishing Kazmir to an odyssey of arm problems that destroyed his former ace-like ceiling. He made just one start in 2011, none in 2012, and by the time we ushered in 2013, he had gone from being a former strikeout king to a fantasy oversight.

But then came the invitation to Indians’ spring training. Kazmir, now 29, pitched well enough in 13 innings, and with some help from the Indians’ reluctance to start the year with Trevor Bauer at the big league level, snuck into Cleveland’s rotation, though a strained rib cage delayed his debut until April 20, when he got vaporized by the Astros.

Still, Kazmir has turned in two decent starts since, including a six-inning, two-run job on Saturday against the Twins. Yeah, they’re the Twins, but I’ll take seven strikeouts any day, whomever they’re against, and a player who has a strikeout title on his resume should forever deserve some respect.

With Kazmir, two things really matter: his health, of course, and the zip on his fastball, which is not unrelated to his health. The good news is that through his three starts, Kazmir’s average fastball velocity, as per FanGraphs, is 91.7 mph, and overall, he’s earning a 9.9 SwStr percentage, both of which are his best since 2008.

Obviously, we’re dealing with a microscopic sample size, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction, especially when you consider peripherals like a BABIP (.350) and HR/FB rate (18.2 percent) that won’t suck so much once he adds a few more starts to his season.

Kazmir, that super prospect from Mets days of yore, is a pitcher I’d like to see succeed, so maybe I’m reading too much into two weeks’ worth of performance while ignoring the shrieking reality that Kazmir could (will?) get injured again. It’s also hard to ignore Bauer’s looming presence, as he’s sure to get a tour in the Indians’ rotation at some point this year, which would squeeze out either Kazmir or Corey Kluber.

But it’s time to get back to considering Kazmir as a potentially viable fantasy baseball starter, a former phenom still chasing that upside as he looks to make good on the promise of yesteryear.

Recommendation: I want to see one more good start. Then I’m going to add him in deeper mixed leagues with the intent of using him as a match-up guy.

Dee Gordon | Los Angeles Dodgers | SS | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.4 percent ESPN; 22 percent CBS
YTD: 5 PA / .500 / .600 / 1.000 with 0 HR and 2 SB
ZiPS updated: 176 PA / .253 / .301 / .323 with 1 HR and 14 SB

If cynicism is a disease, then consider me a terminal case. Example: When I saw Hanley Ramirez limp off the field with the help of trainers on Friday, I didn’t think about his career, his pain, his family, or the rest of his 2013 season because, hey, I don’t own him in any of my leagues, so why should I care? He’s an often-cranky multimillionaire who gets paid to play a children’s game, and in a country where millions of people are out of work and the desperate among us eat out of trash cans for subsistence, I’ll choose to donate my concern elsewhere.

But because it was immediately clear that HanRam and his strained left hamstring will be gone for at least several weeks, I, like a vulture waiting for its prey to gasp its last breath, immediately wondered whether a replacement, blessed with steady playing time, could provide any hidden fantasy value. And as fate would have it, he might.

You remember Gordon, 25, that speedster shortstop who was supposed to provide a fantasy kick in 2012 when he broke camp with the team. Too bad his bat was screamingly inadequate at the plate, as he was only able to compile a .561 OPS in 330 plate appearances, and when you factor in the 18 errors that were second-highest among shortstops last year—in only 79 games, I might add—you saw a raw talent who looked out of his depth in the big leagues.

But let’s get one thing straight: Gordon steals bases. Lots of ‘em. One hundred and ninety-two at the minor league level. Fifty-eight in the majors despite having appeared in just 144 games entering Sunday. That kind of speed, coming from a shortstop, deserves notice in fantasy.

As long as he can hit, of course. Gordon was smacking the ball around to the tune of a .314/.397/.431 line in the Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, and he carries a lifetime .303/.357/.390 line over his 1,963 plate appearances in the minors. Gordon also has flashed the makings of a top-of-the-order hitter when you consider a very decent 13.7 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, which goes nicely with an 85 percent contact rate.

Even when he was drowning in Los Angeles last year with a .228 average, Gordon’s 18.8 percent K rate suggested he wasn’t going up to the plate to flail around helplessly. But a solid average in the hitter-friendly PCL does not end the discussion over whether he can produce a better batting average than, say, .260, and a lack of walks is very troubling.

Also, keep an eye on his defense. While it won’t hurt us fantasy folks, abysmal play at the infield’s most critical position could affect his playing time, and with eight errors in 25 Triple-A games, it’s far from clear that he can play a competent shortstop. Fortunately, the bats of shortstop alternatives Justin Sellers and Luis Cruz have been nothing more than putty so far in 2013, and with the Dodgers needing offense, Gordon should get a serious opportunity to play.

I’m not a scout nor a soothsayer, so I don’t know whether Gordon will get on base regularly enough to be a significant fantasy factor in the month or so that he’ll have shortstop all to himself. But I think about Everth Cabrera and his lifetime .657 OPS, which hasn’t prevented many fantasy owners from using him. Obviously, Cabrera has more experience than Gordon and is probably a better player, but it’s not the worst comparison.

The bottom line: Middle infielders who steal bases always will have a place in fantasy, and in deep enough leagues, they typically find themselves on more than a few rosters.

Recommendation: If you need steals and can live with Gordon’s offensive shortcomings and lack of long-term job security, grab him in leagues mixed and otherwise.

Yonder Alonso | San Diego Padres | 1B | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN; 65 percent CBS
YTD: 121 PA / .284 / .347 / .450 with 4 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 608 PA / .270 / .339 / .417 with 15 HR and 6 SB

No, Alonso will never mutate into a 35-home run fantasy wildebeast, and in standard mixed leagues, that hurts his value as a first baseman. But we don’t often look for shallow mixed-league players on the fantasy scrap heap, and if you can get a guy who will help you across the board in deeper leagues without hurting you in any particular area, you count your blessings.

Enter Alonso, 26. A key piece in the Mat Latos trade a couple of years ago, Alonso has proven his ability to take a base without striking out too much, witnessed by a career 16.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.6 percent walk rate. He’s off to a good start this year, with a solid slash line and four home runs.

Part of what makes Alonso intriguing is his offseason efforts to improve his swing. Working out alongside Alex Rodriguez (a sentence that feels strange to write, let alone read), Alonso watched video and looked to incorporate more power into his swing. That improvement helped lead to five home runs in spring training, and, with four dingers already under his belt, a good bet to double up on last year’s home run total of nine.

Chase Headley is back, Jedd Gyorko’s bat is showing signs of a pulse, and those fences at Petco Park remain moved in. Alonso won’t appear on any fantasy baseball magazine covers heading into next season, but if you believe his ZiPS projections as I do, then you agree he can provide some help at a corner infield spot in many a mixed league.

Recommendation: Not yet a standard mixed-league play, but he should be owned in deeper leagues.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:03am

Friday, May 03, 2013

The daily grind: 5-3-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone is today's auto-start. The Stanton-less Marlins have been preventing their opponents from putting up great fantasy lines thus far.

I refuse to change my tune on the Yankees until their lineup has more than two players with an expected wOBA above league average. I do think it's prudent to avoid starts at Yankee Stadium when CC Sabathia is pitching, but A.J. Griffin is a pretty good pitcher.

Felix Doubront remains intriguing, but this might be the start to sit him if you don't need the innings. He faces the Rangers.

Pitcher (bum): Seeing Jason Marquis, Shaun Marcum, and Jeff Francis starting today takes me back to 2007. All three are prone to crooked numbers.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava are seeing a lot of face time here recently. Nava's been a little more responsive to my favor than Gomes.

Juan Francisco faces Marcum tonight, but he sometimes sits when he should start, like last night. *shakes fist at Chris Johnson/Fredi Gonzalez*

We need a taser because Ryan Raburn is streaking. I hope that joke hurt your insides as much as it hurt mine. But seriously, he's known to go on these streaks where he's a top player in the game, it's just been awhile.

Hitter (speed): Nate Schierholtz, Craig Gentry and Gerardo Parra rep Team Speed today.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm a little more uncomfortable with Bartolo Colon against the Yankees lineup. He's a better play for H2H leagues, since his strikeout rate is fairly low.

Speaking of Yankees, Phil Hughes has been solid in three straight outings.

Some extra luck has taken Pat Corbin past my 50 percent ownership threshold. But if he's still available in your league, a start at Petco is a must-own.

Pitcher (bum): Jon Garland at Coors still strikes me as very exploitable.

Clayton Richard is on the other side of that Corbin match-up, and he's looking like a minor leaguer these days.

Even the Twins can hit Scott Kazmir...is what I'm saying by recommending against him. We'll see if it's true.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should be back in the lineup for Tony Cingrani. At some point, that boy is going to give up a couple long balls.

We're back to Seth Smith and Brandon Moss for the Hughes match-up. As you see, I'm hedging my bets on that one. Let's just include Travis Hafner against Colon while we're at the hedge.

Tomorrow is a Chris Johnson day.

Hitter (speed): Try Leonys Martin, I haven't used that name in awhile.

Alternatively, Chris Denorfia is likely to start against Corbin.

Noteworthy news

Roy Oswalt signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, which is not an ideal destination for him. I'm expecting to see him out of the bullpen, honestly.

Weather watch

The midwest is expected to see showers throughout the day, which affects the White Sox, Royals, Reds and Cubs.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. III

One thing that's wonderful about baseball (fantasy or otherwise) is when your team has a stud that is so studly nothing else matters.

Take me, for instance. I drafted Clayton Kershaw in my dynasty league after the 2008 season and have watched his work with glee ever since. I've also appreciated the notoriety that comes with rostering such a prestigious player. Women want me and men want to be me. When I walk down the street (in a crowded mob, always) children ask to be put on their father's shoulders just to catch a better glimpse of me. Wizened old men and ladies ask for my thoughts about life. It's a burden at times to be sure, but it's also a privilege. I own Clayton Kershaw (figuratively, that would be illegal otherwise) and that makes me a totally bad dude.

(Be advised: it's possible that this section of today's column is slightly/significantly exaggerated)

Ahem. Today's edition of Waiver Wire is not about those kinds of players. No one is going to be giddy watching the guys we'll discuss today, but that doesn't mean they can't help hang a flag.

First, as always, a look at some of our past honorees:

Andrew Cashner did not have his best stuff Wednesday night, and got roughed up by the lowly Chicago Cubs offense. He remains a solid pickup with significant upside, however.

It didn't take long for the Red Sox to ditch Joel Hanrahan in favor of Andrew Bailey full-time. Bailey is still (right now!) owned at much lesser rates than other stud closers, and that should not be the case. If he's available in your league, go get him.

It was suggested on the internet once that J.A. Happ was a capable starting pitcher for owners in mixed leagues. This remains the case, and the person who suggested this is probably one of the top five fantasy baseball writers of all-time. Or his name is Jack Weiland, and he occasionally writes about himself in the third person. Either/or.

John Lackey. Still healthy. Add him.

Luis Valbuena continued his strong play, and although the Cubs keep sitting him in favor of Cody Ransom against lefties, he's still a good buy. The Cubs batted him third against Cashner, which doesn't mean much considering it was a one-off, lefty-centric lineup, but it is telling that the folks in Chicago feel good about Valbuena's offense as well. The luck dragon is catching up with fellow Cub Welington Castillo, but he's still a good source of power from a position that generally lacks it, and he's still widely available. I still recommend grabbing him. Like, fantasy wise. Not in real life, since that's probably assault.

On to this week's features!

Kevin Slowey | Miami Marlins | SP | ESPN: 5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 19 percent
YTD: 0-2, 2.15 ERA in 37.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 3-7. 3.77 ERA in 121.2 IP

Slowey is the poster boy for unsexiness. He was a good prospect with the Twins, but never a great one. He strikes out a good number of batters, but not enough to excite anybody. His walk rate is superb, but his groundball rate is terrible. He's found a home in South Florida, though, and the results so far have been excellent.

While he's unlikely to maintain his sub-3 ERA, he does have a minuscule walk rate (four percent), solid strikeout rate (19.5 percent) and Miami's new ballpark should mitigate some of the risk from his flyball tendencies, as Marlins Park was MLB's fifth stingiest when it came to home runs last year. But as a guy with a sub-90 fastball, and middling stuff, the upside is not here for a run at the National League ERA title.

Recommendation: Strong add in NL-only leagues, and a solid replacement in deeper mixed leagues for injuries/spot starts.

Roberto Hernandez | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 3 percent; CBS: 9 percent
YTD: 1-4, 5.28 ERA in 30.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 6-12, 4.79 ERA in 129.2 IP

Oh hey, remember Fausto Carmona? And how people call him Roberto Hernandez now? No, not that Roberto Hernandez. The new one!

Well, this one is utterly undervalued by fantasy leagues right now. He's been covered in great detail by our pals over at Fangraphs here and here. To summarize: ~~Carmona~~ Hernandez's ERA is ugly right now, but he has been both very good and very unlucky this season. A brief review of the facts behind those statements:

1. He's striking out batters at a career-high rate of 21.9 percent.
2. He has a superb groundball rate of 52.2 percent.
3. He has a supremely unlucky home run rate of 23.8 percent, and a similarly unfortunate strand rate of just 62.2 percent (especially considering the rate at which he's striking batters out).

Recommendation: ~~Carmona~~ Hernandez is likely on the verge of a very hot stretch, and therefore is worth adding in mixed leagues as well as AL-only.

Eric Stults | San Diego Padres | SP | ESPN: 0.6 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 6 percent; CBS: 10 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.67 ERA in 27 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-8, 4.64ERA in 128 IP

This soft-tossing San Diego lefty is another player with an ugly ERA, but solid underlying peripherals. Despite a fastball that averages just 86.4 miles per hour, Stults has been able to post a solid strikeout rate of 18 percent. Coupled with an excellent walk rate (3.4 percent) and decent groundball tendencies (42.7 percent), there's a lot to like here.

He's been victimized by a slightly elevated BABIP (.322) and low strand rate (63.7 percent). Assuming both of those come in line, and Stults is able to maintain his strikeout and walk rates, he can be of use on Fantasy Island.

Recommendation: Worth adding in NL-only leagues. Worth being streamed in the right situation (like, against the Cubs) in mixed leagues.

Scott Feldman | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 0.5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent; CBS: 6 percent
YTD: 2-3, 3.34 ERA in 29.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-10, 4.33 ERA in 124.2 IP

Prior to his complete game against the Padres Wednesday, Feldman was striking out about as many batters as he was walking, which is generally not a recipe for success. Fanning 12 and walking just one did a lot to change that, though. His rates now look more healthy (18.3 percent strikeouts 9.9 percent walks) but he'd do well to drop his walk rate further in an effort to maintain such a sparkling ERA. Since he's pumping across first pitch strikes at the highest rate of his career (61.8 percent) that seems very possible.

He's not going to set the world on fire (because that would be rude) but he can be handy with decent strikeout rates, decent walk rates, and decent groundball rates. He's decidedly decent.

It bears mentioning that the Cubs currently have both Scott Baker and Matt Garza on the disabled list, and when they return the Cubs will certainly be doing some rotation shuffling.

Recommendation: Worth using in NL-only formats for now. His value is tempered by the fact that he may lose his job at some point this season, but you could do worse for a short term solution on the cheap.

Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:26am

Thursday, May 02, 2013

The daily grind: 5-2-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I recommended Roberto Hernandez and Ervin Santana for today. Rain and wind will make that game interesting to say the least. Predictable outcomes are out the door.

Despite Dillon Gee failing me again, I love almost anybody starting against the Marlins. Today that is Kyle Kendrick, who is probably worth owning outright. Lefties (like Lucas Duda) can still take advantage, but he seems to have made legitimate improvements last season that have carried over to 2013.

Justin Grimm is also on that fringe of guys who can be rostered outright. I never saw through his 9.00 ERA last year to the solid peripherals, but he generates a good number of whiffs and rarely walks anybody. In a small sample this year, he's not getting mashed. In last season's mini-sample, he gave up a 29 percent line drive rate and .438 BABIP compared to this season's more sane rates of 19 percent line drives and .288 BABIP.

Pitcher (bum): I'm suppressing the urge to make a Joe Blanton fat joke, which is a shame for you because I had a good one loaded up. Anyway, start Orioles.

What's the over/under on runs scored in a Rick Porcello versus Jordan Lyles match-up? 15?

Dan Haren has lovely peripherals. The question is, do his .386 BABIP against, near 16 percent HR/FB ratio, and continued decline in whiff rate tell us that he's serving them up? I'm betting the Braves have a feast.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston sees a lefty. Which is one of Dr. Seuss' most conventional stories.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava also see a lefty.

Juan Francisco sees a righty. He's different.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia sees...a lefty! But you knew that as soon as I wrote Denorfia—he doesn't play otherwise.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone faces Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins. Have I mentioned that this is a near auto-start?

The Yankees' fairy tale has to end sometime, right? A.J. Griffin is down to 32 percent owned. He's a solid pitcher with a solid match-up. He does oppose C.C. Sabathia, so he shouldn't be choice 1A.

Felix Doubront has a fringy match-up in Arlington. I'm not sure that goes well with his penchant for home runs allowed.

Barry Zito is a wild card. I'm a fool for associating with him, but I don't much respect the Dodgers offense at the moment.

Pitcher (bum): Jason Marquis has been good this season, but I'm betting on the Diamondbacks' offense.

The Rays will be the latest team to prey on lefty Jeff Francis.

Poor Shaun Marcum has a tough game ahead of him against the Braves.

Hitter (power): Marcum starting equals Francisco in the fantasy lineup.

Ryan Raburn looks like he's on one of those hot streaks he used to supply once a year. And he'll have the platoon advantage.

Another lefty for Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Nate Schierholtz against Mike Leake.

It's a Craig Gentry start day.

Also try Gerardo Parra.

Weather watch

A windy, rainy game is expected in Kansas City between the Rays and Royals. Games hosted by the Rangers and Cubs could also see a spate here or there.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:54am

The Roto Grotto: average averages and comparing rate stats

Counting statistics are relatively easy to compare to one another. With an idea of how many fantasy points they are worth, how many it will take to typically earn a specific number of roto points, and how many will be available in all of baseball in a season, you can compare counting stats to each other with appropriate context.

Rate statistics are more difficult to handle because they are really two stats in one, the first a standard counting stat and the second the opportunities for that counting stat. For example, batting average is a rate statistic comprised of hits, a counting statistic, and the opportunity for hits, which is at bats.

As with other counting stats, hits can be more or less valuable for your team depending on their context. If you are one hit away from tying another team’s total on the last day of the season, then one hit is tremendously valuable. If you are far away from both the closest leader and trailer of you, then one hit will be less valuable. However, every hit is a positive event.

In contrast, the opportunity event is always a negative event, a fact that requires a bit of framing to understand. Yes, a .300 average is more valuable over 600 at bats than over 300 at bats, assuming a .300 average will increase your team average. However, the reason that is the case is because of the additional hits, not because of the additional at bats.

I could calculate both hits and at bats as a percentage of league totals, as I did with the counting stats. The problem is that a hit is a positive event that does not equal the negative event of one at bat. A batter that produces one hit per three at bats is among the best in baseball.

I can, however, still calculate the league average, and then use it as a benchmark for comparison. Here is the batting average of all non-pitchers over the last three seasons:

Season	Average	StdDev
2010	.261	.026
2011	.259	.028
2012	.258	.031

In recent years, league average has declined slightly. In 2012, it was .258. I also included the standard deviation of the batting averages of players with at least 300 at bats in those seasons, which has been close to 30 points in each season.

With the league average and standard deviations, I can calculate the Z-score of a specific player’s batting average. A Z-score is a simple expression of how much better or worse a sample statistic is compared to the mean on a scale of its standard deviation. A Z-score of 1 is one standard deviation above the mean while a Z-score of -1 is one standard deviation below the mean.

Here are the Z-scores of the batters that were closest to each whole deviation in 2012:

Player	Average	Z-score
Ryan Braun	.319	2
Ruben Tejada	.289	1
Mark Ellis	.258	0
Mike Napoli	.227	-1
Carlos Pena	.197	-2

A player with a high Z-score will have a correspondingly high average. The reason Z-score is a useful statistic is that it allows you to compare different statistics on different scales. Jeffrey Gross explains it well in his article from a few years ago on his auction-pricing model. I’ll hit on a lot of those same points in the coming weeks, and I will try to apply some of those principles of draft preparation to in-season strategy.

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:54am

Daily fantasy gaming: Five adages

Up until this fantasy baseball season, I solely played the game in the traditional formats. While I was never a rotisserie purist, submitting myself to the variance (and fun) of head to head leagues, I just never had interest in creating a new team on a daily basis—to me, a lot of the fun in fantasy comes from managing a team as you would a real one throughout the ups and downs of the season.

This year though, that changed. After my 2012 fantasy season debacle of being an owner or co-owner in 13 separate leagues, and subsequently not having the time necessary to manage any of them to their full potential, I cut back to only five teams for 2013. To fill the void left by shedding those eight leagues, this season I have traversed into the murky, but opportunity-filled, waters of daily fantasy gaming. And I have to say I’ve loved it.

Although there’s something ideologically nice about having the same team and sticking with it all season long, the most entertaining part of fantasy to me is definitely drafting. And that’s essentially all daily gaming is: drafting a team, just for one day, at any point throughout the season.

There are many strategies for success in daily fantasy gaming, and they often mirror strategies that work in full-season leagues as well. However, because the season has already started and statistical results have started to flood in, there is more opportunity to subvert the norm and go against the grain in daily games because the public is overly inclined to change their opinion on a player in early season small samples. So, here are five rules to follow to help you win more consistently (or perhaps lose less consistently) in daily fantasy baseball games.

1) Shy Away From Pitchers with High Win Totals

In preparation for this piece, I spoke with five of my amateur (non-fantasy expert) friends who consistently partake in daily fantasy gaming. One common thread among them was the heavy use of the "Fantasy Points Per Game" statistic in their decision-making, which is available next to every player’s name on many platforms. It is a very simple calculation that takes a player’s total points and divides it by the number of games he’s played. Sounds useful, right?

Wrong. That’s because of two things: one, it is so widely available that using the stat gives you little to no statistical advantage over your competition, and; two, those results are both in a small sample, as well as extremely misleading anyway. This line of thought leads to rule number one: try to stay away from pitchers that have accumulated an inordinate amount of wins early in the year. It really boosts their "Fantasy Points Per Game" number, which subsequently leads to many more daily fantasy teams starting that player, which, when you’re in a contest against hundreds of other people, is counterintuitive to success.

2) Take Advantage of Platoon Splits

Baseball is a unique sport in many ways, one of which is the concept of platoon splits. Much value in daily baseball gaming can be derived from figuring out which guys fare better against one side of the plate, and utilizing them accordingly.

For example, Buster Posey is a great hitter no matter who he is facing, but for his career so far he is hitting .352 off of lefties with a .654 slugging as compared to a .296 average with a .444 slugging against righties. If I start a high-profile guy like Posey, it has to be in a matchup that is particularly favorable, so I look to only start him in daily games when he’s facing lefties.

On the other side of the spectrum, Neil Walker is an okay player, but seems like nothing special, and is a guy who rarely gets chosen in daily fantasy games. But, he is actually a really solid player against righties—he hits .285/.348/.445 against them versus .261/.318/.349 against lefties. These one-side-of-the-plate guys are omnipresent in baseball, and those little platoon advantages added up over a full year can make the difference between having a winning and losing season.

3) Do Not Get Fooled By Variance

When I read daily fantasy analysis, one common theme is choosing a hitter based on extreme success against a pitcher in a limited sample. While I don’t think that line of reasoning is completely invalid, I would be cautious when using it. The vast majority of the time, those results are just based on small sample sizes, and before selecting a draft pick based on that analysis, I would recommend personally going to MLB.com and watching a few of the match-ups between that hitter and pitcher. Sometimes there really is a legitimate advantage (every single time I’ve watched Ryan Braun face Octavio Dotel, Braun has looked lost) but it’s mostly just small sample size. Be wary of using small-sample matchup reasoning.

4) Always Look At The Bottom Of The List

The technology of price updates on many of the daily fantasy platforms is not 100 percent up to speed with the latest news. Sometimes, if you just scroll down to the bottom of the list where the retired, hurt or bench guys are, there happens to be a rock-bottom priced guy who should be valued as a starter. This mostly happens right after rookies get called up, or a guy comes off of the disabled list early, but even if you’re not expecting it, I’d recommend checking the bottom at every position, just in case there is a mistake. The potential value is enormous.

5) Check The Vig

This is more of a general gambling adage, but daily fantasy games run exactly the same way a casino does: the sites make money by charging you a small fee for entering a game, as a casino charges a small percentage fee when you lose a bet. The thing about daily games though is that the amount of ‘vig’ (that extra percent you pay) varies wildly from game to game and site to site.
Generally, the cheaper the game, the more expensive the vig—most five dollar fantasy games will charge a one dollar vig, which is way, way, way too much. My general advice is to never enter a contest that exceeds 10 percent, which sometimes means having to play some of the slightly more expensive games. But, in the long run, if your bankroll can take the variance, that strategy will help to maximize your profits.

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:20am

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

The daily grind: 5-1-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm using Dillon Gee today not because he's trustworthy, but because he faces the worst lineup I've seen in years—the Miami Marlins.

The Astros have a surprisingly decent offense. They remind me a bit of the patchwork unit used by the Athletics—just with substantially less talent. In any case, David Phelps faces them today and the Astros' greatest proficiency remains striking out.

Andrew Cashner is up to 32 percent owned. He was never available in any of my leagues, although a league mate is trying to trade him to me for Bryce Harper.

Wei-Yin Chen isn't the most stable choice, but he should have a hard time earning the loss given the Mariners' weak offense and Aaron Harang's early season struggles.

Trevor Bauer starts today, and while I don't even like the match-up against a weak to mid-tier offense like the Phillies, he probably won't be available for long.

Pitcher (bum): Harang is the guy to stack against today.

I'm not sure what's going on with Erik Bedard or if he's even allowed to pitch over five innings at this point.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes will have the platoon advantage against Mark Buehrle. Throw Daniel Nava in the mix as well.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable should start against Scott Feldman

Juan Pierre matches up well with the Mets' indifferent defense. They're also among the easiest teams in the league to steal a base against.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Roberto Hernandez versus Ervin Santana offers two historically cringe-worthy choices. The case for Hernandez is based on his solid peripherals and gopheritis. If he can regress to a league average home run rate and maintain the other numbers, he'll be a solid pick. The story behind how Santana climbed from bum to top recommendation is laid out below.

Run to the wire for Kyle Kendrick versus the Marlins.

Justin Grimm looks like a solid pitcher worthy of ownership. He'll find a spot in "Good enough for me" once Santana isn't crowding the space.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton is overcooked at the moment.

Rick Porcello is expected to face Jordan Lyles. Which sounds like a slugfest to me.

I'll continue betting against Dan Haren.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston will see hittable lefty Eric Stults.

Gomes and Nava continue to be a solid play against J.A. Happ.

Big bat Juan Francisco is a must-play against Haren.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia faces Travis Wood, whose early-season numbers appear to be mostly smoke and mirrors.

Noteworthy news

Stephen Strasburg is not expected to miss a start due to his forearm tightness.

Weather watch

There could be thunderstorms late for the Rays and Royals, but I'm not sure you need to avoid this game.

Good enough for me

Santana has seen incremental improvements across the board this season, jumping from my most reliable bum to a guy I'd like to own. Most notably, he's striking out more batters by generating more whiffs and he's walking hardly anybody. His K/BB ratio is 6.20, which is elite. I think he'll remain home run prone, and he's among the easiest pitchers to swipe a base against, but the overall numbers might worth a speculative add.

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. II

Does it not seem like just yesterday when the Rangers took the field against the Astros, christening what was a newly minted baseball season? Fast-forward 30 action-packed days to today, and one whole month is in the books. It's still early, of course, but a month is a month, as roster moves, rookie performances and debuts of super prospects become more commonplace.

Since we last checked in, Andrew Cashner pitched well enough against the Giants to help cement a role in the Padres rotation, Felix Doubront punched out eight en route to a win (though the walks remain an issue), while Lucas Harrell benefited from some heavy hitting Monday against the Yankees to earn a win.

But that was so April. Let's look ahead to May baseball.

Brian Dozier | Minnesota Twins | 2B / SS | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.2 percent ESPN; 13 percent CBS
YTD: 79 PA / .243 / .295 / .314 with 0 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 607 PA / .246 / .297 / .339 with 6 HR and 12 steals

Remember Aaron Hicks? Sure, you do. He was, after all, tabbed to be fantasy sleeper material as the Twins' center fielder to start the year. But then, a funny thing happened: It turns out he can’t hit big league pitching, at least not yet. So the Twins, under the impression that they have something to play for in 2013, decided to make a lineup switch on April 23, moving second baseman Dozier—hitting a measly .152 at the time—to hit atop the team’s lineup. And whaddya know? Dozier has played much better, compiling a .718 OPS since then. And in deep fantasy leagues, when a guy flashes a hint of competency to go along with dual middle infield eligibility—he appeared in 83 games at shortstop last year—we stop and take a closer look.

Drafted by the Twins in 2009, Dozier, who turns 26 this month, compiled a .298 /.370 /.409 line in 365 minor league games, achieving a 9.5 percent walk rate and a delicious 87 percent contact rate. Obviously, that’s the makings of a guy who doesn’t flail away helplessly at the plate, though it’s fair to ask how much of a fantasy force he’ll be in 2013, when you consider just 16 home runs in the minors and not a ton of stolen bases (though he swiped as many as 24 bags two years ago while shuffling between A+ and Double-A).

There’s also the question of how long he’ll last as the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter, since there are still some of us who cling to hope that Hicks will rebound before a Triple-A demotion occurs. The Twins, of course, always have the option of batting Joe Mauer third, which would allow Dozier to remain at the top of the order.

Dozier doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling, but guys who make contact and can provide decent defense up the middle usually find work at the major league level. It might be too soon to tell whether Dozier can provide immediate help in fantasy, though he’s certainly an interesting player to keep an eye on.

Recommendation: I’ll pass for the moment in standard AL-only leagues, but another good week could change that quickly.

Justin Grimm | Texas Rangers | SP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 9.4 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 17 IP / 2.70 FIP / 7.94 K/9 / 2.12 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 121 IP / 4.81 FIP / 5.73 K/9 / 3.35 BB/9

In the topsy-turvy world of pump-and-dump, pick-em-and-cut-em fantasy baseball dumpster diving, my predictions of lucrative—or poor—returns can sometimes turn out to be completely, utterly off. Isn’t that right, Chris Heisey? I know you agree, Garrett Richards. Oh, Collin Cowgill? Don’t bother responding—you’re dead to me.

But once in awhile, ~~even a stopped clock is right~~ my two cents can have some currency, evidenced by Nick Tepesch, who’s been serviceable, if not solid, in the three starts since he guest-starred on the waiver wire a couple of weeks ago. And since his rotation mate Grimm has suddenly become a hot commodity in fantasy leagues, we might as well see if I can go two for two among Rangers starters.

First things first: Grimm looked to be just a seat warmer a couple of weeks ago when Matt Harrison went on the disabled list with a back injury, but then that injury led to surgery for a herniated disc, zapping Harrison’s presence until midseason. Assuming Grimm can keep it together, it’s fair to presume he’ll have a steady job for at least the next two months, and he’ll have a job well beyond Harrison’s return if he can continue pitching like he has in his first three starts.

Who is Grimm? Plucked by the Rangers in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, the 24-year-old put together a 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 281 minor league innings, and was able to keep the ball on the ground well enough to avoid a high HR/9 rate, which is obviously a factor given Arlington’s hitter-helpful surroundings. At the major league level, Grimm has been able to maintain those strikeout numbers armed with a low-90s fastball to go along with a curveball and change-up.

As the innings mount, Grimm’s surprising K/9 will fall back down to earth, as will his 1.59 ERA, which is inflated by favorable strand and HR/FB rates. And yes, there’s no question that he’d be valued differently if his fan mail were sent to, say, Petco Park instead of Rangers Ballpark. But with a rotation spot on a good team and a strikeout rate that could very well exceed 6 K/9, I’d say Grimm has modest, if limited, appeal.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues.

Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies | 3B | 42 percent Yahoo ownership; 35 percent ESPN; 62 percent CBS
YTD: 10 PA / .333 / .400 / .667 with 1 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 116 PA / .280 / .324 / .439 with 14 HR and 1 SB

Forget any questions about his attitude. Forget any concerns about whether he’s too raw to produce steadily in the majors. Instead, just think about the fact that Arenado, ranked 52nd on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, calls Coors Field home and will be the Rockies’ starting third baseman going forward after the team designated Chris Nelson for assignment.

Yes, Arenado’s Double-A numbers last year (.285 /.337 /.428, 12 home runs) were less dazzling than in his sparkling 2011 season, in which he crushed 20 home runs and 122 RBIs and won most valuable player honors in the Arizona Fall League. But that’s not to say 2012 was a total loss, as the 22-year-old matured, and, in some ways, put together a better season. And the fact that Troy Tulowitzki has taken the neophyte under his wing sure doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Let’s cut to the chase. Mike Moustakas has been fantasy kryptonite so far in 2013. Will Middlebrooks was hitting .202 entering Tuesday’s action. And Pedro Alvarez is, well, Pedro Alvarez. We’ll need a few more weeks to find out how well Arenado acclimates himself to the majors, but with his upside and his position’s scarcity, a spare roster spot—if not an outright starting gig—sure sounds like a cheap asking price.

Recommendation: If he’s still available in anything but the shallowest of mixed leagues, grab him.

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:15am

Which batter belongs?

One way I offer perspective to those who overreact to their fantasy teams’ hot or cold starts is to note that teams are made up of players, and the level of significance of the standings is likely also reflected in the player rankings. Sure, things are beginning to settle in, but there are also some quite foreign names among the players whose 2013 production has ranked as elite.

That said, each year, a number of players come out of nowhere and stick as top-25 or top-50 players. Today, I’ll look the offensive players currently in the top 25, but who were projected outside the top-100 and choose which I think has the best chance of retaining elite value for the full season.

My current choices are Chris Davis, Coco Crisp, Nate McLouth, Dexter Fowler, John Buck, and Wilin Rosario.

McLouth does have some potential and Buck does have legit power, but they will likely be borderline roster-able in 12-team mixed leagues by year’s end. I’d sell high on either without question.

Some expected big things from Rosario, but there are still a few things that worry me, mainly his plate discipline. I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade him, but I’d entertain offers. He should finish as a top five catcher, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Even as an elite catching option, it’s difficult for catchers to break into the very top of the season rankings among all players.

When it comes to Chris Davis, the most impressive thing I’ve seen from him this year has been improved plate discipline. We need to see if this continues for the season—I’m not yet convinced. As of now, I still expect basically the same thing I did coming into the season. But, if the walk rate holds for a few more weeks, I may have to reassess Davis and his sublime power

Coco Crisp is a good player who has been beset by injuries and had his production capped by hitting atop some weak offenses. There’s no reason why a healthy Crisp can’t flirt with being a top-75 player and provide 40 or more steals. But, retaining top-25 value is a reach. He’s unlikely to hit above .280 and is below average in homers and RBI.

This leaves us with my choice among this group—Dexter Fowler. I was incredibly high on Fowler coming into this season and have reaped the rewards in the leagues in which I nabbed him. There’s a lot to like about Fowler. He’s displayed very good on-base skills both in the minors and in the bigs and has consistently upped his ISO each year as a pro. Is this the year that a significant number of his doubles and triples become homers? It’s certainly within the realm of possibility. Though, I don’t expect him to continue to hit homers at this clip, 17-22 dingers is quite possible, as he enters his prime (age 27) and shows continued development. Also promising is that five of eight early season long balls have come away from Coors.

The other area that would really boost his game would be an improvement as a base stealer. Fowler certainly has the speed to be a very good one, but he has never seemed to get the technique down pat. He’s stolen as many as 43 bases in the minors, but never at a very good success rate. In the majors, he’s ran less often each year, as his inability to turn his speed into highly successful stealing revealed itself. Still, he’s three for four early in 2013 and could still put a total in the mid-teens.

As long as Fowler continues to get on at a high rate, he’ll have plenty of chances to both swipe a few bags and score a bunch of runs. An end season line of something like .300/90/20/70/15 does not seem unrealistic at all, and that’s just outside top-25 production—maybe top 40 or so. I would not move Fowler for anything but an established stud.

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:01am

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1) Shy Away From Pitchers with High Win Totals

2) Take Advantage of Platoon Splits

3) Do Not Get Fooled By Variance

4) Always Look At The Bottom Of The List

5) Check The Vig

Wednesday, May 01, 2013

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Good enough for me