Get It Now!Hardball Times Annual is now available. It's got 300 pages of articles, commentary and even a crossword puzzle. You can buy the Annual at Amazon, for your Kindle or on our own page (which helps us the most financially). However you buy it, enjoy!
And here's the full roster.
Most Recent Comments
A Look at John Buck (1)
THT Fantasy has moved to Rotographs (4)
THT Roundtable: How seriously do experts take mock drafts? (21)
Player-A-Day: Tim Lincecum (3)
Player-A-Day: Josmil Pinto (5)
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License.
THT's Fantasy Archives
Thursday, June 06, 2013
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
I'm considering dropping the "Today" section of the column since I spend about 20 percent of my effort re-writing my words from yesterday. I would replace that section with "Amendments to yesterday's Grind." That would allow me to be slightly more thorough with the same time allotment. Thoughts?
Pitcher (to start): Slim pickings today (and in general) for pitchers to start. Andrew Cashner is the best arm, but his start is at Colorado.
Shaun Marcum has had a rough start to the season but appears to have righted the ship. The Nationals haven't been the hardest assignment this season.
Miguel Gonzalez doesn't appear here often, but a match-up with the Astros promises strikeouts.
Pitcher (bum): Two games feature exploitable pitchers on both sides.
Mike Pelfrey versus Wade Davis could lead to high quantities of runs. Davis is actually a solid pitcher, but he seems to be having trouble with his transition out of the bullpen.
Tyler Cloyd and Wily Peralta are very different pitchers, but they both can be expected to allow runs.
Hitter (power): Ryan Doumit's a solid option against Davis.
Scott Van Slyke will face Tim Hudson.
Hitter (speed): Craig Gentry will try to reach base against Jon Lester.
Aaron Hicks against Pelfrey or Lorenzo Cain against Davis may provide a steal or two.
Will Venable has a solid match-up against Jhoulys Chacin.
Pitcher (to start): Francisco Liriano is pretty scarce at 65 percent owned, but he's firing on all cylinders right now and the Cubs do not have an imposing lineup.
Felix Doubront is an interesting case study. Over four of his last five starts he's produced solid results backed by terrible peripherals. Prior to those outings, he had four poor outcomes with strong peripherals. Altogether, he's a stretch recommendation against the Angels. His velocity is still down, but he's getting the strikeouts.
Jarrod Parker is 54 percent owned and demonstrating improved control in recent outings.
Pitcher (bum): Nate Karns seems a little green.
Esmil Rogers probably won't pitch deep into the game even if the outing goes well. So the Rangers will bide their time for run scoring.
I don't usually bet on the Phillies burning down the barn, but a match-up with Alfredo Figaro could result in some runs.
Edinson Volquez has the never pleasant Coors Field start.
Let's throw Jeremy Bonderman on this list while we're at it, since it's no longer 2006.
Hitter (power): That Bonderman start makes Travis Hafner look attractive.
Hold onto Van Slyke, who will face lefty Paul Maholm.
Kelly Johnson should enjoy the match-up against Jason Hammel.
Hitter (speed): Matt Cain doesn't seem to be himself, which makes a Gerardo Parra start palatable.
Chris Denorfia will square off against Jorge de la Rosa.
Try David Murphy and/or Leonys Martin against Rogers.
Johnny Cueto is back on the disabled list with a lat strain, which will eventually mean the return of Tony Cingrani. He doesn't line up with Cueto's next start.
The Mets and Nationals will deal with thunderstorms today.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:59am
So far, I’ve used hitter statistics for all of my examples. Really, hitter stats can demonstrate every concept that applies to either hitter or pitcher fantasy stats, but I spent this week catching my pitcher stats up to my hitter stats. Now, I can show comprehensive 2012 results.
First, here is the top-25 total Z-scores of pitchers based on the league mean and standard deviations of each roto stat from 2012:
There are several similarities between pitchers and hitters. Saves are a stat that applies only to certain types of pitchers. In that way, they are similar to stolen bases. Each starter has the same small negative Z-score for Saves of -0.32.
ERA and WHIP are the pitcher rate stats, which are analogous to batting average for hitters. Rather than scale to at bats, I scaled ERA and WHIP to innings pitched. The main difference is that both ERA and WHIP scale from high to low rather than low to high, and so I multiplied the Z-scores for those categories by negative one.
Remember that all Z-scores are based on per game numbers with a fairly small minimum innings qualification. Most names are the ones you would expect, but that is why pitchers like Chris Tillman and Brett Anderson made or nearly made the list.
Finally, hitter and pitcher totals can be combined to produce apples-to-apples comparisons based on total Z-scores:
Even though starting pitchers by their nature contribute in only four categories, David Price and Justin Verlander still made the top-10 overall by total Z-score last season. Of course, total performance is not the only justification for drafting a player. Pitcher and hitters have different chances of injury, declining performance, and replacement levels.
Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:21am
This is Page 1 of 1 THT Fantasy Focus pages