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Thursday, July 18, 2013
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
The Daily Grind now features a few changes. The column will start with a brief recap of items related to that day before focusing on the next day. A few pitcher picks for upcoming days will be listed out as well. If you have any comments or suggestions, use this State of the Grind post from Monday.
The tumbleweeds are out today and a lock to win it all.
Pitcher (to start): Ricky Nolasco the Dodger is a lot more interesting than Ricky Nolasco the Marlin yet he's still only 44 percent owned. He's matched up against Stephen Strasburg so this mostly a recommendation to roster Nolasco rather than a single game to exploit.
Felix Doubront will face a Yankees lineup that struggles against left-handed pitching. This is my pick for the day.
Jeremy Hefner cut down on the walks and is posting huge numbers as a result. He's paired against Kyle Kendrick. Both can be solid streaming options, though I might slightly favor Hefner if forced to choose.
Wei-Yin Chen is coming off a strong outing against the Rangers. He will face...wait for it...the Rangers. With Chen, a low strikeout rate and a high rate of balls in play make him a touch unstable.
A.J. Griffin is still at 56 percent owned, but he has a tough match-up against Jered Weaver and the Angels.
Pitcher (bum): Mike Pelfrey faces the Indians. He's looked much better in recent starts, but we'll keep him in the exploit section of the column until he shows more.
Ian Kennedy is a bit off his game this season. A modest increase in walk rate and a below average left on base rate appear to be the main culprits. I would stack Giants in daily leagues— they should mostly be cheap.
Hitter (power): Miguel Montero's ownership is down to 54 percent, but his performance has been roughly "normal" over the last 30 days. He faces Chad Gaudin.
Brandon Belt has the platoon advantage against Kennedy.
Jedd Gyorko is back to starting daily with the Padres and has that coveted second base eligibility. The Padres play the Cardinals' Jake Westbrook.
Chris Carter has the platoon advantage against Joe Saunders. He's owned in 26 percent of leagues.
Jonny Gomes will see lefty Andy Pettitte.
Hitter (speed): Adam Eaton has quietly worked his way back from the disabled list. He also faces Gaudin.
Will Venable is a solid choice for speed and has a hint of power upside.
Leonys Martin's ownership rate is stalled in the mid-40s, so I will continue to recommend him, this time against Chen.
Pitchers to come
Saturday Go grab Corey Kluber for his game against the Twins. He's down to 23 percent owned, so most of you should have the option.
Sunday Hold off on making a selection. Jose Quintana and Chris Archer are the most talented pitchers who are widely available, but both have poor match-ups (Braves and Blue Jays respectively)
Monday Dan Haren is the guy to try with half the league still listed as TBA.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:38am
A few weeks ago, I looked at the Z-score per game calculations for rookie hitters. Pitchers are a bit less interesting because ERA and WHIP are already rates that make them easy to compare, even for two pitchers with a different number of innings. However, wins, strikeouts, and saves are also important, and for someone like Tyler Skaggs who is constantly yo-yoed between the majors and minors, it is about the only way you can make comparisons.
I decided to take some extra steps, which required some extra assumptions, to handle pitchers. Since starters and relievers have different expectations for wins and strikeouts in a given appearance, I made a manual adjustment based on the ratio of wins and strikeouts starters had relative to all pitchers in 2012. In addition, I used 200 starts as an estimation of a full season in fantasy, which I used to estimate per game stats.
Here are the 2013 qualified rookie starters through the first half of the season, using the eight-point roto tiers:
There have been several quality rookie starters this season, although none who are breaking the game the way Yasiel Puig did when he debuted on the hitters’ side. Shelby Miller has been best. He and Chris Archer, surprisingly, have been the only two rookie starters to contribute positively in every category.
Tony Cingrani and Jose Fernandez have hurt owners versus expected wins. With Fernandez, that has to be expected. He will be stuck on a bad Marlins for years where double digit wins will be an accomplishment. In contrast, given the quality of the Reds offense, Cingrani would likely stabilize as a positive contributor in wins with more starts under his belt of similar performance. The question is whether hitters will adjust to someone who succeeds on deception more than stuff.
A bit lower on the list, the aforementioned Tyler Skaggs has had the sixth-highest strikeout Z-score in his limited starts. To date, Gerrit Cole has been more valuable because of the wins, but if both are in the majors to stay, Skaggs looks like the better bet this season based on the strikeout rate.
On the bottom of the list, Allen Webster has been terribly wild en route to a 9.57 ERA and 1.90 WHIP. However, for those looking for positive signs, the strikeout rate is not as bad as it looks in this presentation. Since the Z-scores are based on per-game statistics, Webster’s short outings penalize his strikeout score. If he can find some command, expect that to rise.
Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:13am
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