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Thursday, September 05, 2013
The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!
The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.
Today’s weather watch
There aren't many games today, but they shouldn't be affected by weather.
There are a couple great picks today despite the thin slate of games.
Pitcher (to start): Left-hander Felix Doubront will face the Yankees. Doubront's been a frequent visitor of the column due to acceptable peripherals and plenty of run support.
Scott Feldman is usable against the White Sox. He can be expected to post an ERA in the high threes over any given stretch while striking out batters at a slightly below average rate.
Zack Wheeler versus Scott Kazmir provides a fringy pairing of streamable pitchers. I would focus on Kazmir in this outing as the Indians offense is just substantially better than the Mets, even if Wheeler might be a slightly better pitcher.
A.J. Griffin's match-up with the Astros looks mighty fine on paper. Griffin's having another fine season with a great BABIP and close to three strikeouts per walk (2.88 K/BB). Because he's such an extreme fly ball pitcher, the low BABIP isn't entirely hinky.
Pitcher (bum): Chris Capuano is coming off his first strong outing in awhile, but I believe in the general trend of mediocrity that he's shown over the last month. The Reds are a difficult match-up, too.
Mike Pelfrey's worked his way back to being a solid yet unspectacular pitcher. However, the Blue Jays still have a little thump in their lineup even with Jose Bautista shut down for the season.
Juan Nicasio versus Burch Smith looks like your classic 11 piece bucket o' runs.
Hitter (power): Kyle Blanks hasn't really shown the mash skill that you'd like to see out of a big-bodied guy, but maybe he has it in him tomorrow.
Oh for the days when Josh Donaldson was available. A game against Dallas Keuchel does seem like the time when Michael Choice would get a start.
Also try Christian Yelich against Dan Haren.
Ryan Ludwick remains largely available and has a friendly match-up with Capuano.
Josh Satin and Andrew Brown might be worth a look-see versus Kazmir.
Here's another column regular: Jonny Gomes sees lefty Andy Pettitte. Keep an eye on David Ross, who's a great start against lefties but isn't used predictably. Jarrod Saltalamacchia is a bit banged up though.
Hitter (speed): Sometimes I can just lock players into the column for a stretch. It's getting that way with Adam Eaton, though Gerardo Parra's just along for the ride.
New extendee Will Venable has a lovely match-up with Nicasio.
Also try our old favorite, Eric Young Jr. against Kazmir.
Pitchers to come
Saturday: Alex Wood is the guy for Saturday with all of the other options coming with substantially more risk for less reward.
Sunday: Danny Salazar has the Mets on Sunday, which is good enough for me.
Monday: I'm leaning toward Erasmo Ramirez against the Astros.
The AL pennant race is looking mighty interesting, while things are much less exciting in the NL. At least the NL Central is providing some drama.
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:50am
For dynasty teams looking to rebuild or stash players for the future, the September waiver wire may be a bit barren, even for prospects. It has been a couple of months since most of the midseason prospect updates released, so that scramble of reassessment is behind us. Most of the news that casual deep-league owners receive between then and the offseason is bad news, such as Dylan Bundy’s Tommy John surgery.
One way to keep semi-informed is simply to check up on those prospects’ basic statistics. For fantasy purposes especially, prospect rankings do not always match up with the players with the greatest potential to help your team. Outliers, either good or bad, can give you a clue as to which prospects that may still be available are worth the acquisition or which touted prospects you should look to sell.
What follows is a table of prospects (as well as rookie-eligible pitchers that make for interesting comparisons) from Keith Law’s and Baseball America’s midseason updates. I’ve included only players with innings in A-ball or higher.
In general, I included their strikeout and walk rates from the level in which they threw the most innings this season. If two levels were fairly close, I went with the higher level. In many cases, the pitcher already has moved beyond the listed level. I sorted the table by level first, and then by strikeout-to-walk rate.
One final warning: do not lend more weight to this table than it deserves. Prospects use the minors to prepare for the majors, and so their goal is not always to perform as well as possible. Often, lower-level pitchers will stop throwing their best pitches to develop new ones.
For that reason, I put less stock in poor walk rates at lower levels. At higher levels, poor walk rates do worry me, and I expect prospects to miss bats at every level. For fantasy purposes, strikeouts are more valuable than they are in actual baseball. On the whole, use this list as a means to discover which available players or players on your team may merit a trade, or which ones you should look for more recent information on.
Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:04am
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