|
September 5, 2008
 Plus our Statistical Definitions Who's Hot, via First InningThe Player Development SiteCarlos Beltran (NY Mets) 10 RBI in last 21 AB Billy Butler (Kansas City) 3 HR and 4 2B in last 25 AB Miguel Cabrera (Detroit) 3 HR and 3 2B in last 24 AB Edwin Encarnacion (Cincinnati) 10 RBI in last 17 AB Matt Harrison (Texas) 2 BB in last 20 IP Recent Comments at Ballhype
Or you can search by:
StubHub is where fans buy and sell Yankees Tickets, Red Sox Tickets, White Sox Tickets, Mets Tickets and all other baseball tickets. If you are looking for World Series Tickets, ALCS Tickets or NLCS Tickets, you can find them at StubHub! More hot selling tickets include: Cubs Tickets, Astros Tickets, Dodgers Tickets, Angels Tickets and Detroit Tigers Tickets. Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Monthly Archives
September, 2008
August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 February, 2008 January, 2008 December, 2007 November, 2007 October, 2007 September, 2007 August, 2007 July, 2007 June, 2007 May, 2007 Got a question or comment for one of our writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag. Or just contact the site administrator with your comments. 
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
Most Recent Posts
Tuesday, June 05, 2007WHAT MAKES A SUCCESSFUL FANTASY GMPosted by Patrick DiCaprio at 5:38pmBy way of introduction, I run The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog, in which the writers try to illuminate the underlying core principles of fantasy baseball by considering it as a “game” (in the mathematical sense) or warlike conflict. The core principles are viewed through the prism of various disciplines such as game theory, military strategy, economics, and even the writings of Sun-Tzu. When I was asked to write a weekly column for THT’s Fantasy Focus I naturally jumped at the chance. For my first weekly column I wanted to address what I believe is the most important goal of any Fantasy player. The goal happens to also be the answer to the question posed in the headline. The answer is obvious to most: a successful GM is a “winner.” Or at least that’s how most fantasy players would answer. Yet, they are wrong. Surely, being a winner is a hallmark of the expert fantasy GM, but it is only a necessary criteria not a sufficient one. Winning requires luck. I have yet to meet the fantasy GM, expert or otherwise, who could properly judge the vagaries of chance. No one can win without a modicum of good fortune. So mere winning is not the answer. Another popular answer is that “knowledge” makes an expert fantasy GM. Again, we only achieve half the battle. Knowledge is certainly a necessary condition; however mere knowledge will get you little but perhaps the show money (to borrow a horse racing term). An owner could know the batting average, by heart, of every player on the Marlins roster; this doesn’t make him an expert or a success. In fact, the true expert needn’t even know any of this information since it is readily accessible to all at the stroke of a computer key. Even Einstein, perhaps apocryphally, didn’t bother to memorize his phone number. The answer is that to be a successful GM one must become an “expert,” and there are plenty of supposed experts out there. Just searching Google for “fantasy baseball blogs” I found hundreds. There are scores of podcasts and analyses from supposed experts. One should be cautious of taking advice from non-experts, and yet how can you tell whether one is a real expert? The criteria below must inform one’s assessment of expertise: 1. Knowledge. The expert knows things that others don't, and I don’t mean batting averages but analytical tools and strategies. The expert has knowledge on many matters relevant to the process at hand and is always gaining more knowledge. An example would be that an expert can provide a reasoned answer to many questions, such as "why is it a fallacy that hitters hit worse with two strikes," or "in fantasy, why should I not chase wins" or "who will emerge from the Phillies' bullpen with saves." They may come to a different conclusion than other experts but they will evince a thorough knowledge of the issue. 2. Strategy. A true expert will know and use strategies that non-experts don't even know exist. To borrow from the writings of David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth on poker (from whom this example comes,) an expert may use a game theory based bluffing system that non-experts don't even know exists. In fantasy baseball, an example would be knowing about the Low Investment Mound Aces strategy. Whether a particular strategy is good or bad to use in a given context, the expert knows them and can use them should the need arise. 3. Independence. A true expert will deviate from conventional wisdom and even his own typical strategy should the situation be favorable; he will not be tied down to any preconceived set of rules or the conventional wisdom, and will trust his or her judgment over all else. It may just be that he has a different opinion than everyone else, or it may be that it is for a specific tactical reason. An example: an owner that rarely spends significant money on pitchers in an auction league is willing to bid $30 on a pitcher this year (an example dear to my heart since this year was the first year in ten that I paid $30 for a pitcher; it was Jake Peavy). If you are bidding against that owner, and you have the knowledge of his bidding tendencies (and how can you be an expert if you don’t have this knowledge?) you would be well advised to bid $31. 4. Flexibility. A true expert can use many different strategies, can tailor his planning to given situations, and can take advantage of a situation as it presents itself through judgment and knowledge. The expert doesn't need to read specific advice from trusted websites or other sources of information in order to come to a conclusion, though they may be invaluable; he or she can make good decisions based on a thorough knowledge of fundamental theory. There are an infinite number of situations that can arise. One would be foolish to, for example, follow trusted dollar value projections to the letter regardless of their judgment, but many owners do just that. 5. The Thought Process. Last, and by far the most important, is the thought process. The expert considers many variables, and can sift through them in a logical fashion to come to a reasoned decision. Here is an example of expertise in practice: In a high stakes auction league that I am involved in, (in which each owner has one AL and one NL team) this year Tom Gorzelanny and Adam Loewen were auctioned for $12 each, and James Shields went for $9. In all three cases, two owners that I consider to be experts or close to it were involved in the bidding, and no other owners were seriously involved. In all three cases other owners not involved in the bidding were incredulous and making their disapproving comments and opinions known. In Loewen's case, (which hasn't worked out so far--but I focus on process not results; more on that later) his poor superficial numbers hid what was an excellent pitcher. He struck out approximately 8 batters per 9 IP, and got two-thirds of his outs on ground balls and strikeouts. In Gorzelanny's case, he had superficially good numbers, had good minor league translations and had a FIP of 4.16, again showing that he was for real and not a fluke. Shields had surprisingly solid core skills; including 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings and 2.7 walks per nine. More importantly he was unlucky last year with a 33% hit rate, causing there to be a perceived discrepancy between what these two experts saw as his potential and what the others saw as a rookie with a 4.80 ERA. There is of course more to it than that, but we are discussing general theory here. To be sure the book is out on all three, and the masses may eventually be right. But I doubt it. The two owners involved saw what others did not. Suffice it to say that in my opinion the two owners involved in these bidding wars could be considered experts, despite how these individual moves may work out. Your goal: not just to win your league(s) but to gain knowledge, improve your judgment, consider more variables and to learn about the core principles of the game. When you do this you will be a “successful” GM; namely an expert. Expertise requires a confluence of factors that are all within your grasp, so go get them. Patrick is a member of SABR's Statistical Analysis and Science of Baseball Committees and writes about fantasy baseball at The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog. He has achieved the dream of all of his MIT classmates. No, not making millions in the tech markets, but writing about baseball for free. Feel free to send along all insults and comments here. Travis Hafner: the First BasemanPosted by Derek Carty at 4:34pmTravis Hafner has now started 4 games at first base for the Cleveland Indians. In many Fantasy Baseball leagues, a player must start 5 games at a position before becoming eligible to play that position for a fantasy team. Travis Hafner is just 1 game away with Interleague play right around the corner. Hafner's bat is just too valuable to relegate to pinch-hitting duties when the Indians play in National League parks. As such, the Indians have been giving him some work at first base to prepare him to play several games there in the coming weeks. If Hafner's owner is asleep at the wheel, now is the time to buy on him. The Indians play at the Reds on Friday (against Homer Bailey), and Hafner should pick up his fifth start then, if not earlier. Either way, come Saturday morning, whoever owns Hafner will be able to slot him into their lineup in the spot marked '1B.' This gives Hafner's value a huge boost. Had Hafner been first base eligible to start the year, there is a very good chance I would have taken him in nearly every league I had the opportunity. To start, Hafner takes a lot of walks. To clarify “a lot,” I mean that he had an 18% Walk rate in 2006 and has a 21% Walk in rate in 2007. It's so good that it has allowed Hafner to keep a .300 BA despite a not-so-inspiring 75% Contact rate. His career BABIP is .334. His 2005 Line Drive rate was 20.2% and in 2006 it was 21.2%. Despite his increased Walk rate this year, though, his Line Drive rate has slipped to 18.5% and his BABIP to .316. No need to sound the alarms yet, but Hafner is also hitting just .272. I don't see any clear reasons to panic, and Hafner's Line Drive rate should raise in time, as should his BA. I don't see a good reason to bet against Hafner hitting close to, if not over, .300. Hafner is also a beast in the power department. Last year, according to HitTracker, Hafner hit 24 Home Runs with True Distances of over 400 feet. His furthest went 450 true feet. This year, 5 of his 9 that HitTracker has data on went past 400 true feet, and he hasn't hit any under 367 true feet. Because of this, I expect his HR/FB rate to pick up a little bit as some of his shallower fly balls are converted to homers. The most concerning thing about Hafner's power is his fluctuating Fly ball rate. It has been alternating each year of his career between the mid-to-high 30s and low 40s. 2004 it was 43%, 2005 it was 37%, and 2006 it was 40%. This year, it has fallen all the way to 33%. Accordingly, his AB/HR has fallen from 11 in 2006 to 19 in 2007. If this rate keeps up, Hafner will end up with just 27 HRs if he gets 525 ABs. I expect it to improve, however, for a number of reasons. The first is that his 48.6% Ground ball rate is the worst of his career and is 7 percentage points above his career average. I doubt Hafner is suffering a deterioration of skills given his improved Walk rate, constant Contact rate, and relatively small drop in Line Drive rate. Therefore, his Ground ball rate should decline and his Fly ball and/or Line Drive rate should improve at some point this year. If his Fly ball rate could even get back up to 37% he would be in decent shape. Then, if some of his shallower fly balls begin to turn into HRs, he should even better off. I would be surprised if Hafner doesn't hit at least 40 Home Runs this year. When you add Hafner's lineup situation into the equation, you get an excellent player. Hafner has batted third every game this year, with the likes of Grady Sizemore, Jason Michaels, and Casey Blake ahead of him and Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko, Trot Nixon, and Jhonny Peralta behind him. With 40 HRs and those hitters ahead of him, Hafner should easily reach 100 RBIs with 115 a good possibility. With his ability to take a walk and the power behind him, he should also get to 100 Runs without a problem. That leaves Hafner's final line looking like this: .300/40/110/100. I had him projected a little higher preseason, but since there is some risk involved with Hafner (his Ground ball rate the main culprit), I think this is more likely. The only first basemen I'd probably take over Hafner at this point are Albert Pujols, David Ortiz, and Prince Fielder. If Hafner doesn't improve his HR rate and BA, guys like Ryan Howard, Adrian Gonzalez, and Gary Sheffield would pass him. If you can take on a little risk, though, play up the low Fly ball, Line Drives, and AB/HR rates to Hafner's owner and reap the rewards. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. For more cutting-edge fantasy baseball coverage, sign up for Rotoworld's premium service | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
