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December 1, 2008
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December, 2008
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Friday, June 15, 2007Waiver Wire: National LeaguePosted by Derek Carty at 4:14pmSince I missed out last week, we'll make this week's National League Waiver Wire jumbo-sized. Ray Durham | SF | 2B - In a better lineup, Durham could be a Top 3 Second Baseman. Has the ability to hit .300 with 25 HRs (although his 11% LD rate is concerning), but the Giants lineup will suppress the RBI and Run totals a bit. He is still one of the most underrated 2B in fantasy baseball. I drafted him in several of my leagues. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF - One of the most versatile players in fantasy baseball, Freel is set to come off the DL by the end of the month. Today, he was cleared for "light aerobic activity." While he has never hit .300, he has all the skills to: 85% Contact rate, 10% Walk rate, 20+% Line Drive rate. If he could ever play a full season, he would steal 50 bases. He should also score well over 100 Runs batting leadoff for the Reds, and he should hit 8 or so Home Runs. Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. Khalil Greene | SD | SS - Could be a better Contact hitter than his BA indicates, but his fluctuating Walk rates are mind boggling. It bounces from 5% one year to 9% the next. This year it is 5%, but if he could get it up to 8% or 9% he could hit around .280 with his low-80s Contact rate. His 17% Line Drive rate is the lowest of his career, and hopefully it will bounce back up around 20%. He is showing good power this year, though, and could hit 25 HRs. The Pads moved him up to 6th today, but he is probably good enough to hit 4th or 5th in that lineup. There is risk involved, but Greene could be a solid contributor. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Chase Headley | SD | 3B - Had an 83% Contact rate, 13% Walk rate, and 17% Line Drive rate in 482 High A At-Bats last year, but only hit 12 Home Runs. For Double A San Antonio, this year, he had just a 77% Contact rate but a 12% Walk rate and 21% Line Drive rate. He also hit 12 Home Runs in 223 At-Bats. I wouldn't expect much out of Headley, but in deep leagues he could be alright. A .260 BA and 5 HRs might be in order. He batted 7th today, so a few RBIs might come, but Headley shouldn't be worth using in shallower leagues. Recommendation - Should be only be considered in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Mark Loretta | HOU | 1B/2B/3B/SS - With Adam Everett out for a while, Loretta should see plenty of time at SS and could win the job all for himself. Great Contact rate, good BB rate, very good LD rate. Loretta should hit well over .300, but more than 5 HRs would be a shock. He's batting 5th tonight, and if that sticks he should get some RBIs. His good BB rate will help him get some runs too, so Loretta could have a little bit of value as a Middle Infielder. Could also steal a handful of bases. There are likely better MI options available. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues. Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - I talked about him yesterday, so I won't repeat myself. Might be good for a line like this: 8.50 K/9 | 4.00 BB/9 | 42% GB Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues until he proves otherwise. Heath Bell | SD | RP - Never given a real chance by the Mets, every chance he had was plagued by bad luck. The Padres saw his talent and he has rewarded them with continuing good numbers. A 9.95 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, and 64% Ground ball rate is fantastic for a reliever. Honestly, Bell is a much better pitcher than Trevor Hoffman, but the Padres won't remove Hoffman — who has been with the team since 1993 — from the closer's role unless he seriously falters or he and the team come to a mutual agreement, which seems very unlikely. Bell's GB rate should come down, possibly to around 50%, but he still seems to be one of the best non-closer relievers in baseball. In leagues where relievers have value, Bell should be owned. On an unrelated note — as a Mets fan — I'm still upset that Minaya traded him. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues where RPs have value. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Tim Lincecum | SF | SP - Has struggled with his control his past two starts, but bumps are to be expected with rookie pitchers. His peripherals are still great overall and he'll provide plenty of Ks. If his owner is frustrated, perhaps you could try a trade if he hasn't dropped him. If he has been dropped, grab him immediately. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Adam Wainwright | STL | SP - Wainwright was pitching the other night and one of the announcers said how good of a pitcher he thought Wainwright was and would become. I just don't see it. A sub-6.00 K/9 is nothing to brag about, and his 3.49 BB/9 isn't very good either. His 47% Ground ball rate is pretty good, but it doesn't compensate for the K/BB that sits below 2.00. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Hong-Chih Kuo | LAD | SP - Put up great K rates at AAA and in the majors last year but had questionable control. The control is better this year (3.56 BB/9), but his K rate is down to 7.63 in his 3 starts since coming back from the DL. I expect it to go up a little and it is entirely possible it will raise all the way back to 9.00. His Ground ball rate is also down (29.5%), but it should go back into the low 40s. It was 44% in the majors and 45% in AAA last year. Overall, Kuo should be a decent pickup, especially considering he'll help you with Ks (something most WW guys will not do). Recommendation - Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Josh Johnson | FLA | SP - Coming off the DL soon, Johnson was a pleasant surprise for the Marlins last year. He was a little bit lucky, and his 3.10 ERA was much too low. His 7.62 K rate was good, but his 3.90 BB/9 was not. The 45% Ground ball rate is pretty good, but unless he gets the K/BB over 2.00 he won't be nearly as good as advertised. Also, there is no telling what affect the injury had on him. Be cautious. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Matt Morris | SF | SP - 48% GB rate doesn't make up for the sub-5 K/9 and 1.55 K/BB. Is getting lucky with a .263 BABIP, 75.5% LOB%, and 5.8% HR/FB rate. Not worth owning in shallow leagues. Recommendation - Should be owned only in very deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - 56.8% LOB% is extremely unlucky, and his 6.08 LOB% should drop dramatically. 7.00 K/9 and 2.17 K/BB are good, and his GB% is up to 42% (although it may not stick). K rate adds extra value. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Sean Marshall | CHC | SP - Apparently, Marshall has completely reworked his repertoire, and it is showing in his peripherals. His last couple starts have been less than inspiring, but his first 3 were great. His control was great in all of them, resulting in a 1.85 BB/9. Combine that with a 7.15 K/9 and a 50% Ground ball rate, and you have a very good pitcher. He is risky given the small sample size, but if these numbers hold up he's worth owning in all leagues. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues, until he proves otherwise. John van Benschoten | PIT | SP - Hasn't been healthy since 2004. Early in his minor league career was considered a top prospect, but his numbers this year haven't been great. His 50% GB rate is very good, but when you post 1.50 K/BB at AAA there isn't much to get excited about. His K rate didn't even get above 7.00. Avoid except in very deep leagues. Recommendation - Should be avoided except in the deepest of leagues. Corey Hart | MIL | OF - Mentioned a couple of weeks ago, Hart has now established a starting spot for himself. He has started in every game but one this month. Has hit 3 of his 4 HRs HitTracker has data on past 400 true feet, and if he were at 8 HRs right now it would be perfectly fine. Could hit 25 HRs, and has lots of speed. Might get to 35 steals by year's end. He takes a lot of walks, has a good contact rate, and shouldn't have too much trouble hitting .300. His 16% LD rate might drop that down to .285-.290, but Hart would make a fine addition in almost any league. He'll help in all 5 categories, especially if he gets to hit in the middle of the order. Has spent the most time batting 7th, and second most leading off, so we'll have to wait and see where he settles. Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Kyle Kendrick | PHI | SP - Called up from Double A and posted a seemingly good first start; he should get another. I don't see big things for him, though, considering his rather paltry minor league numbers over the past couple years. I expect a demotion soon. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all but the absolute deepest leagues. Chris Duncan | STL | 1B/OF - I wish the Cards would give Duncan regular playing time because he is a very good hitter. Contact rates are down a bit this year and he might only hit .260 or .270, but his power is fantastic. His 11 HRs could easily be 20 right now, given the fact that 7 of the 9 HitTracker has data on were hit further than 400 true feet. Hitting second keeps his value low, but if he were to move into a better spot and play everyday he would be a very good fantasy option. Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues. Troy Tulowitzki | COL | SS - 77% Contact rate isn't great, but his 9% rate is very good for a rookie, and his 22.6% LD rate lends plenty of support. His Contact rate will keep his BA around .270, but he should score tons of runs batting second for the Rockies... especially considering his good BB rate. Has shown decent power and might hit 10-12 HRs. There are worse SS options out there. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Xavier Nady | PIT | 1B/OF - Power has been a little lucky so far, and a 20 HR rate from here on out is more likely than his current pace. 6% BB rate isn't very good, but his 80% Contact rate isn't bad. His 24% LD rate seems inflated, and it might fall back to around 19%. Overall, a .270 BA should be in order. Has good position in an OK offense, which helps his value a bit. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Adam LaRoche | PIT | 1B - Good power, and should put up at least a 25 HR rate the rest of the season. Like Nady, has good position in an OK offense. Has a different contact hitting skill set but could also hit around .270. His LD% is down this year, which is partially why his BA is so low... that and bad luck. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues. Alex Gonzalez | CIN | SS - Early season power was a little lucky, but he should at least get to 20 HRs. LD and Contact rates are good, but his BB rate is terrible. His BA is finally settling. Who knows how the Reds will work their lineup, but so far he's hit mostly 5th, 6th, and 7th. Should get a decent number of RBIs and not many Runs. Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues. Nick Johnson | WAS | 1B - Time to start watching Nick Johnson. His return could come around the All-Star break, and he is someone I absolutely love. Has tremendous power and should have hit more HRs last year. Had an 80% Contact rate, 18% BB rate, and 22% LD rate last year. Should hit near .300 and hit tons of HRs. And even though he plays on the Nationals, his great power and patience should allow him to get plenty of RBIs and Runs. If you have an open DL spot, pick him up and stash him, assuming you haven't already. Recommendation - When he returns, he should be owned in all leagues. Mike Fontenot | CHC | 2B - In 2005 and 2006, he had good Contact and Walk rates, and 2006 saw a good LD rate that carried over to 2007. His Walk rate, however, was way down in the minors. It is very low in the majors, too. His 5% LD rate won't last, but I'm not sure if Fontenot will be a great hitter in the majors. With so few ABs it's tough to predict a BA, but I don't think he'll hit over .270. His first HR went 420 true feet, and he hit 6 in 204 AAA ABs this year, although in previous years it wasn't very good. We'll see how he does, but keep expectations low. He'll probably be demoted when Aramis returns. Recommendation - Should only be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL only leagues, for now. Felix Pie | CHC | OF - Seems to have established himself as the Cubs #2 hitter, although I like Ryan Theriot better. 82% Contact and 24.4% LD rates are good, but his 6.7% BB rate is only so-so. He might hit .280. Hit two HRs past 400 true feet, so he's got some power, and hitting second will allow him to score runs. Has speed and could steal 20-25 bases. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL only leagues. Jarrod Saltalamacchia | ATL | C/1B - Catcher eligibility helps a lot. Showed great ability to take walks in the minors and has consistently put up Contact rates around 80%. 6% major league BB rate isn't great, but he could improve it in the coming months. 20% LD rate is good, and a .270-ish BA might be the best bet for Salty. Hit 6 HRs in 81 ABs in the minors to start the year, and he has hit two 400+ shots so far in the majors. Mostly hitting 7th, he should get a few RBIs. Probably misses the cut in 14-team single-catcher mixed leagues, but if some teams own more than one catcher he could be considered. Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team single-catcher leagues mixed leagues. Should be owned in all single-catcher NL only leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team 2-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in all 2-catcher NL-only leagues. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Waiver Wire: American LeaguePosted by Derek Carty at 11:48amThis week AL-version will be a little smaller, mostly because a lot of the guys from last week are still available in most leagues and are still good options. Mike Piazza | OAK | C - I said last week that Piazza was on target to come off the DL in the middle of the month, but now it looks like he might not be back before the All-Star break. When he does return, he should be owned in all leagues. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Sammy Sosa | TEX | OF - Slammin' Sammy is owned in just 38% of ESPN leagues, but he's still got a lot of power left in his bat. His Walk rate is down to 7.6% and his Contact rate has never been very good (73% this year), so his BA isn't likely to come up much. He hits in the heart of a good lineup, though, and probably should be hitting more Home Runs. 35 isn't unlikely. RBIs should be plentiful, and a fair number of Runs should come too. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues. Dustin McGowan | TOR | SP - Once a top prospect of the Jays, McGowan hasn't become the elite pitcher they once thought he would be. His 2007 numbers are respectable though, giving him a little bit of value. With a 7.35 K/9 and 3.67 BB/9, his K/BB sits at exactly 2.00. His 46.5% Ground ball rate helps too. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Jeremy Guthrie | BAL | SP - Another one-time top prospect, Guthrie is putting up decent numbers for the O's. Since being converted to a full-time starter on May 8, Guthrie has posted a 5.40 K/9 and 1.23 BB/9, combining for a sparkling 4.38 K/BB. Combined with his good 48.4% Ground ball rate, Guthrie makes a solid play in many leagues. His K rate is below average and won't help you in that category, but he should be a solid contributor in the other 3. I bet the Indians wish they'd stuck with him just a little bit longer. Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues. J.D. Drew | BOS | OF - The Sox have him batting lead-off now, and with his walk rate and quality of batters behind him he should score a boatload of runs. Expect around a .285 BA and a near-.400 OBP. He hasn't hit many HRs this year, but don't blame the Monster. He doesn't hit many long balls to that part of the field. All of his so far have gone to center and right, and all have carried over 400 true feet. He should be hitting more, so expect a power spike to come soon. Drew should put up a 20-25 HR rate from here on out. Even batting leadoff, on the Red Sox Drew should still be able to get some RBIs. He has value in most leagues. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 8 and owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Dan Johnson | OAK | 1B - Struggling mightily and owned in less than 4% of ESPN leagues, Johnson is just getting unlucky. His numbers all look great and a .290 BA trend should start any day now. He also has the power to hit 25-30 HRs, so watch out for that. He should contribute with RBIs and Runs too given his good lineup, good power, and great on-base skills. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Jose Lopez | SEA | 2B - There are a lot of equally solid options, especially in mixed leagues, but Lopez is still a decent player. Doesn't walk a lot and his BA might drop to around .275, but batting second for Seattle (EDIT: Not sure why I thought he normally bats second; batting at the bottom of the order might not create as many opportunities) should create some decent Run opportunities, even if his walk totals are low. He won't get very many RBIs. He hasn't hit any HRs past 400 true feet, so a dozen HRs might be the most you should expect out of him. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Coco Crisp | BOS | OF - Not a whole lot of power, and his 14% Line Drive rate doesn't bode well for his BA, Crisp is a guy to approach with caution. Batting for Boston he should get more RBIs and Runs than a normal bottom-third of the lineup hitter, and an occasional start in the 1 or 2 hole might help a little. A lot of his value comes from his speed as he is on pace to steal 31 bases. His BA will depend a lot upon his LD percentage given his only mediocre walk rate, and his BA could end up anywhere between .260 and .295. Don't expect much power out of Crisp. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Joe Kennedy | OAK | SP - Don't let the 3.50 ERA fool you. His 0.97 K/BB is terrible, and he doesn't even have the K rate to help you. Kennedy ownership should be reserved for the deepest of deep leagues. Recommendation - Should be avoided in all but the deepest of leagues. Gil Meche | KC | SP - Given his career 40% Ground ball rate, it is bound to drop from it's 52% level this year. His control seems to be improved, and if it stays that way Meche would deserve better than his 30% ESPN ownership. A 6.75 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, and 42% Ground ball rate is pretty good, even if he is on the Royals. Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Brian Bannister | KC | SP - I can't give the same praise to Meche's teammate. His 2.00 K/BB isn't terrible, but his 4.53 K/9 will hurt you. His 40% Ground ball rate doesn't help make up for the low K rate. When his .267 BABIP and 2.5% HR/FB (!) get corrected, he'll be in for a decline. Recommendation - Should be only be owned in very, very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Mike Mussina | NYY | SP - Mussina has quietly posted two solid games in a row. 4 Ks in 6 IP and 7 Ks in 7.2 IP without a walk in either. His control is still great, and if his K rate comes back Mussina would again become a good option. Watch carefully, but be skeptical. Recommendation - Should be watched in all leagues. Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
