Waiver Wire: American League

Thursday, August 30, 2007

Strategy: Playing - and winning - in an inactive league

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:13pm

As I've said, I am struggling with writer's block (in addition to sleep deprivation) recently, so this article would probably be best suited for the off-season or earlier in the season. I do it now, though, to serve as a reminder to those in a league like this: get it fixed next year! Dump the dead weight or seek out a new league entirely. Now is the time to start. If you put it off, you may never get around to making the necessary changes.

My situation

The first thing I'll say on this topic is that playing in an inactive league should be avoided at all cost. Sometimes, though, it is simply unavoidable. When this happens, you need to know how to deal with it. Regrettably, I played in such a league this year. Luckily, it was my friendly league and the stakes weren't much higher than bragging rights.

There are four of us who have played for years and pay attention to the league throughout the year no matter what place we are in. We have been cycling through people to fill out the rest of the league, but even when some of these people are close friends of ours, we simply can't get them to take the league as seriously as we would like. This year turned out to be the worst year yet.

Limited player pool

In the month leading up to the trade deadline, as I was trying to deal, I simply couldn't find a partner. The needs of the most willing person to trade (who, ironically, has been in first place most of the year) and my team just didn't match up. By that point, four teams had stopped paying attention all-together. One owner, while paying attention, claimed his team was already perfect and refused to even talk about trading.

Another owner and I had a trade worked out (my Brad Lidge for his injured Miguel Tejada, who would help me in certain categories of need and fill my sub-par SS position), but he mysteriously stopped answering IMs and left my trade proposals on the table for a month and a half (I had to resubmit them every 10 days), even though he was the one who originally suggested the trade. One of the remaining two teams didn't make a single trade all year.

This left just two teams to trade with, one of which was the first place team I mentioned earlier.

When 70% of the owned player pool is unavailable to you, you're hands are really tied. Still, you play with the hand your dealt. By making some shrewd moves and successfully implementing certain strategies, I currently sit in second place — just two points back of first place.

Avoiding an inactive league altogether

The most important thing you need to do to avoid a league like this is carefully screen members. If a player didn't pay attention last year, don't let him back in. If you can check the records from prospective owners' previous leagues, do it. If not, ask them plenty of questions to make sure that they won't stop paying attention, no matter what.

Even once you screen members, though, you can't guarantee that they will all be willing to do a lot of trading. While two of our members payed attention this year, they refused to trade. As I said before, one wouldn't even enter a discussion, claiming that his team was already as good as he wanted it. That is just poor play, as there is always room for improvement for any team.

To keep players interested in your league, there are a couple of good options to pursue. The first is to make it a keeper league. If there is more at stake than just this year, teams will be more willing to pay attention and attempt to trade throughout the year, even once they've fallen out of contention.

Don't fall into the trap of making it a concrete keeper league, though, where you can only keep a limited number of players. If your league only allows, say, three keepers, teams who fall out of the race who already have three players good enough to keep might lose interest, thinking that they are out of the race this year and are set going into next year. Try setting up a contract system that allows flexibility with how many players you can keep. This also promotes trading, as teams will try to get players they feel are undervalued at their current price.

Another way to keep interest is to raise the stakes. If every team in your league is required to pay $300, and the first place prize is $1000, there will be less teams giving up so easily.

Succeeding in an inactive league

Well, let's say you weren't able to implement all of these ideas into your league and you've fallen into an inactive league. Being the competitor you are, you still want to win. Here are some things you will need to do.

1) Have a good draft or auction. In my inactive league this year, there were just five trades made all year. I was involved in three of them. Needless to say, your options are limited if it is difficult to trade. If you don't have a good draft or auction, it will be nearly impossible to win the league, because your only real means of improving will be through the waiver wire.

In my draft this year, I found such late round gems as Javier Vazquez, Chris Duncan, and Barry Bonds. I also got guys like Jake Peavy and Adam Dunn for a good discount while not getting burned on my early picks.

2) Avoid injuries. Not something you have a lot of control over, but if you get hit with bad luck in the injury department, it may not be possible to rebound. If you knowingly are going into an inactive league, be a little more prudent when drafting. Avoid guys with serious injury question marks.

I didn't know I was going into an inactive league on draft day, but I did have suspicions. I got pretty lucky with injuries, losing Mike Piazza, Ryan Freel, Jason Giambi, Curt Schilling, and Octavio Dotel for a good chunk of time each, but after that I've been pretty solid. I haven't lost any key players, although the Manny Ramirez news recently isn't encouraging.

3) Be active. I lead my league in transactions made this year with 43 (and that's without playing a single match-up, which I don't usually recommend doing). A good chunk of this was juggling closers. I drafted Octavio Dotel as my only closer this year, but am now sitting in fifth place in saves (my goal) and stand to improve a couple points with a staff currently filled with Brad Lidge, Joakim Soria, C.J. Wilson, Rafael Soriano, and Manny Corpas.

In addition, I juggled my bench a lot and even ended up with a couple eventual starters this way (Ryan Theriot at MI being my favorite). I also used the "waiver wire efficiency" strategy to grab Luis Castillo for runs, recently.

4) Use the Waiver Wire effectively. Not always the easiest thing to do, but you will need to pull it off. Without being able to make trades, the Waiver Wire is the only place you'll be able to improve your team, making it exponentially more important to use it effectively.

This year, I was able to pick up guys like Ryan Theriot, Khalil Greene, Tim Lincecum, all of my current closers, Alan Embree, Bengie Molina, Mark Reynolds, and Kenny Lofton, all of which contributed a decent amount to my team at some point in the year.

Other guys, like Akinori Iwamura, Edwin Encarnacion, Joaquin Benoit, and Jason Frasor weren't as helpful. What's different about these guys was that I cut bait at the right time, when I thought someone else was an improvement. Also, while these guys were, by no means, studs, they really didn't hurt that bad.

5) Be persistent. As I said, I was involved in 50% of my league's trades. Constantly talk with the members of your leagues about trades, or just about baseball in general. Soften them up, constantly dropping little hints that you want to trade or by hyping up your players (even those you don't wish to trade). The more you talk, the more trades will ultimately become available to you. Have some tact, though. If you are annoying when doing this, owners who take things too personally will be less likely to deal with you.

6) Be patient. As recently as the beginning of July, I was sitting in eighth place out of ten. I knew my players were getting unlucky, though, so I didn't panic. I dumped a couple that I no longer liked, but those that I did, I kept. They have rewarded me since, propelling me to second place.

Also be patient when waiting to make a trade. Be persistent (#5) and flexible (#9) too, but don't make a move just for the sake of making a move. It's a fine line to walk, but those who do it well will be successful.

7) Make good trades. Easier said than done. You will be limited in the number of trades you make, so make sure the ones you do make are good ones. You will lose on some — sometimes due only to poor luck — but the key is for the majority of them to bring back positive value. I believe I did that with every trade I made in this league. Here is the list of my trades.
Note: The second set of players came to my team.

Pat Burrell for David Bush -- May 8.
I had plenty of OF and Bush had great peripherals. His owner was looking to dump him because of poor surface numbers. I did end up dropping him, though, when my pitching staff became too full.
Bill Hall for Troy Glaus -- May 31.
I needed Glaus for my next trade, which was prearranged. I also didn't like Hall.
Troy Glaus/Brett Myers for Garrett Atkins/Kelvim Escobar -- May 31.
I dumped an injury prone player for my favorite 3B sleeper at the time. I also got rid of an injured, no longer starting Brett Myers for starter with nice peripherals.

8) Don't count your chickens. A trade isn't complete until it is complete. The Tejada/Lidge trade I mentioned before is one example. I also had a trade worked out at the trade deadline of Tim Lincecum and Kenny Lofton for either Ichiro Suzuki or Eric Byrnes.

I needed runs and steals without killing my other categories and had plenty of pitching. Plus, I was set in ERA, WHIP, and K and Lincecum isn't great for wins. It actually would have helped the other team too, but he was pretty far out of the race and unlikely to come back and bite me. We had all but agreed on it, then he seemed hesitant, and then he left for a vacation and was incommunicado for a week (past the deadline).

If something like this happens to you, first do everything in your power to get in contact with the other owner and make it happen. If you can't, keep your composure. Seek out another option, even if it is an inferior one. Don't be obsessed with what could have been. If you can help yourself, stay rational and do it.

In the case of Ichiro above, there just wasn't enough time as it was the day before the deadline and no one else was interested in trading. That's why you need to do your work a few weeks before the deadline. In this league, though, it proved to be nearly impossible (you still have to try, though!).

9) Be flexible and creative. In an inactive league with unwilling trade partners, you won't always get as lucky as I did with finding nice trades. Sometimes, you're going to need to make the pieces fit. When someone is willing to trade, you need to beat that horse until it is dead... and then a little more (unless of course you make the trade!).

Also, don't be afraid to jump ship on certain players.

Be creative. If you can get good value from someone, but there's a problem (maybe you already have the position filled), ask around the league and see if you can't spin off the player you already have for a position of need. I had been in talks with the guy I got Atkins from for the whole season about Atkins (persistence!), and for a couple of weeks about Bill Hall. When he heard that I was trading Hall for Glaus, he said he liked Glaus even more, and we were able to work out a very nice trade (for me, anyway).

Keep all options available and always keep your ears open and your mouth moving.

Concluding thoughts

Needless to say, my league will undergo some serious changes this off-season. We're switching to a keeper league setup with a complex (and fun!) contract system. We're going to spend the winter scouting out potential new members, so hopefully by this time next year we'll have a much improved (and deeper) league.

If your league is similar to mine, put the effort into fixing it. If you have a competitive league with a system that really makes you think and strategize, it is lots of fun.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

A look at Jered Weaver

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:44pm

I'm having a sort of writer's block, so for today I'll post the answer to a mailbag question. This reader asked me about Jered Weaver. He wanted to know whether or not last season was a fluke and the league is simply adjusting to Weaver, or if he is getting unlucky this season (specifically with his 1.42 WHIP), or what the deal with him is. So, here is my answer.

2006 and luck

In 2006, Jered Weaver posted solid peripherals, but was playing well over his head. In the four categories we normally check for luck, he was getting lucky across the board. Please note that the league averages given are approximates to use as a guide. Every year is different, but these are typically the benchmarks.

	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Lg. Avg.	74%	.300	10.0%	19%
2006	86%	.246	8.4%	18%
2007	73%	.322	6.7%	16%

As you see, in 2006 he was lucky in every category, getting extremely lucky with LOB% and BABIP. The LOB% explains the low ERA (2.56), and the BABIP explains the low WHIP (1.03). Still, he did put up a 7.68 K/9 and 2.41 BB/9.

His 3.18 K/BB enabled him to put up a solid LIPS ERA of 3.80, despite some luck with his actual ERA. When you fix the BABIP, his DIPS WHIP was a very nice 1.16. Conclusion? Weaver was lucky, but still quite good in 2006.

2007 and luck

Knowing that his 2006 LIPS ERA was 3.80, his 2007 ERA of 3.96 might look reasonable without further dissection. If we look back up at our table above, though, we see that Weaver has also been getting a bit lucky this year, namely with his HR/FB. What's worse is that a guy with an expected ground ball percentage (xGB%) of 34% is in for an even more severe correction. When corrected, his LIPS ERA jumps up to 4.19. He isn't quite as bad as his 1.42 WHIP indicates, although a DIPS WHIP of 1.35 is nothing to cheer about.

So how does his DIPS WHIP go from 1.16 last year to 1.35 this year? Quite simply, Weaver's peripherals have worsened a bit. It could be because the league has adjusted to him a little. It could be because of his injury earlier in the year. It could be that he is just having an off year and he'll be better next year.

Whatever the reason, his K/9 has dropped to 6.41 and his BB/9 has increased to 2.81, and when you get so few fly balls, you really can't have a 2.28 K/BB (especially in the AL) and still be successful.

Looking to the future

While we certainly would have liked to see Weaver put up similar or better numbers than he did in his rookie campaign, there is hope for the future. I don't think 2006's peripherals were unrepeatable seeing as how his numbers in the minors were very good.

He put up an 11.58 K/9 and 2.76 BB/9 in 101 IP between Single A and Double A in 2005, and put up a 10.87 K/9 and 1.17 BB/9 in 77 IP at Triple A before being called up in 2006. Those are incredible numbers, and make a 2008 rebound all the more likely. While it's not preposterous, I have difficulty seeing a guy who dominated the minors like that only manage a league average strikeout rate on a year-to-year basis.

Closing thoughts

Overall, Weaver is having a pretty poor year, fantasy-wise, but figures to do better in 2008. I really don't see him getting any worse than this. His BB/9 could increase a little, but I don't see his strikeouts getting much lower. I would probably bet on him doing at least marginally better in 2008.

So as long too many people don't write this season off as a sophomore slump and rebuild Weaver's hype, he might come at a decent discount next year. He is a little risky in keeper leagues, but depending on the situation might be keepable. If you own him in a keeper league and would like my opinion, feel free to e-mail me your league details, and I'd be happy to let you know how I think you should proceed.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Is it cheating? A possible collusive trade and its aftermath

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:25am

In my high stakes league we had a series of transactions that were outright cheating. At least in my opinion. The involved owners vehemently disagree. What do you think?

This is an 11-team league, with seven hitting categories (BA and OBP are combined and counted double) and fve pitching categories (ERA and WHIP and saves are double). The maximum point total is 176 in each league, and 352 overall. I have never seen a team over 300; last year's champ was in the 260 range, and this is a pretty standard point total for the winner. At the time of this collusive trade I had 290 points, give or take (this was two months ago; right now I have 285).

Here is the deal. The numbers and letters after the salary are contract statuses with my explanation:
Team A trades: Derek Lowe $20s2 (can be kept for next year), Derrek Lee $26 s1 (cannot be kept next year without $10 increase), Willy Taveras $7s1 (cannot be kept without $10 salary increase), John Lackey $14L1 (can be kept next year at $10 increase), Victor Martinez $24 s3 (can be kept for two more years), Jose Lopez 4 s2 (can be kept for another year).

Team B trades: Chase Utley $13 L2 (is signed for next year at 13), Ryan Freel 18 s3 (can be kept for two years but won't be), Cha Baek 0L9 (rookie-once he loses rookie status he is $7 and can be kept for one year), Robinson Cano 19 s2 (can be kept for next year), Ross Gload 0 L9 (rookie), and Matt Garza 9s3.

When the trade was posted Team A announced that it would not accept counter offers for any smaller part of the deal, namely for any individual player or group of players. Given the tight trading restrictions we have it was not possible at the time for any other contending team to counter offer the entire deal. We have a tight salary cap and a salary minimum and because of earlier trades the other contenders couldn't do it. Nevertheless there was no lack of trying. The key to my opinion that the trade was collusive is that both owners were smart enough to know exactly what they were doing. They knew that no team could make a viable counteroffer for the entire deal.

Team A further announced that he had a "busy" work schedule and would have limited time to talk about counter offers.

Here is my prima facie case of cheating. Feel free to tell me if you think I am way off base:

1. Team A was out of it.

2. The two owners are co-owners together in another high stakes league.

3. Both owners are former champs of this league so they obviously know what they are doing.

4. Team B was in a tight race for third place at the time and four teams cash. There were four teams within 10 points of each other.

5. Because of contract status and salary, only Utley and Gload were keepers, and possibly Cano, for Team B. Cano was hitting .240 at the time and both owners agreed that he probably wasn't keepable. Happily Cano has at least hit since this trade, frustrating Team B's intent. Freel was hurt at the time of the trade and won't be kept. Baek is a “keeper” only because he can be kept but he has little value, especially once he loses rookie status and carries a $7 salary. Gload is no great shakes either but at least he is theoretically a keeper albeit of little to no value.

Of the players this “dumping” team was trading I thought Lowe, Victor Martinez and Jose Lopez were clearly keepers. Team A could also keep Lee or Lackey for one more year by increasing their salary by 10. Lackey is worth it and will likely be re-signed, but not Lee. So much for rebuilding. Team A is not making this trade to set himself up for next year, in my view.

6. On its face the talent going back and forth is not even.

7. Obviously better counter offers were made for individual players in the deal were rejected. For example I offered Tom Gorzelanny and James Shields or Sergio Mitre for Tavares and Lopez, where Gorzelanny, Mitre and Shields were all terrific keepers at less than $10 for the next two years. So, even if Utley and Cano were his targets, he STILL could have gotten them. All he had to do was trade me Tavares and Lopez, and obviously Team B isn't going to back out of this deal over Tavares.

8. Team A asked me only to email him with counter offers. I said that since he was allegedly in a time crunch I would post a few counter offers and he could just "accept" any that were sufficient for him according to our trade posting rule. He declined this offer. I took this to mean he didn't want the league to know what counter offers were out there.

Suffice it to say that I knew full well that my counter offers wouldn't be accepted. I purposely made inflated counter offers just to prove that collusion existed.

This trade set off an avalanche of counter moves by other owners that now seriously threaten the league's existence. After this collusive trade the following happened. I was not involved in any of these dealings, so I am somewhat unbiased in my allegations:

1. Multiple teams traded more than 20 players in two weeks to each other. This includes Teams A and B, not surprisingly. Virtually entire rosters changed hands in a two-week span among five teams.

2. Some teams made huge trades of multiple players with alleged "trade back" agreements after the season. This is outright bald cheating in my opinion. A trade back is simply a trade where Team X will trade players to Team Y and Team Y agrees to return those players to Team X after the season is over. As far as I am concerned these trades should be subject to the strictest scrutiny in the offseason.

No one will know for sure that a "trade back" deal is made unless it is inadvertently revealed, or if another owner blows the whistle (which is what happened here). All the commissioner can do is review the attempted offseason trade back with very strict scrutiny. If I trade player X for player Y with a hidden "trade back" agreement, they needn't be traded back for each other in the offseason. I can technically reacquire player X for player Z with none the wiser. The only protection is the commissioner.

3. A few owners conspired, in a deal for Hunter Pence, to prevent another owner (Team C) from meeting a time limit for posting counter offers. This was done on purpose and was explicitly addressed by the owners involved. It was a blatant attempt to hurt one owner for personal reasons.

4. Team C announced his intention to quit the league, as the victim of the conspiracy above.

5. Team A above announced his putative intent to quit. Good riddance as far as I am concerned, though I doubt it will come to pass.

One more data point on the collusion issue. In a deal the week before this collusive deal I was negotiating a deal with Team A. I had a long discussion with Team A about Felix Hernandez and we reached an agreement to make a deal for The King. Within five minutes of it being posted the owner of Team C called me and we posted a better offer, knocking Team A off the clock.

When I tried to counter just for Tavares and Lopez Team A essentially told me that he was unhappy about being knocked off the clock so quickly in the Felix Hernandez deal, and without mentioning names said that he and Team B were "upset" about some of the other trades that happened in the league. I understood this to mean that Team A and Team B were in a "we'll show them" mentality.

As far as the counter moves, which were at a minimum unethical, other owners saw what was happening and didn't want to be left at the altar. Who wants to stand by and watch two guys collude to win a high stakes league? By responding in this manner it made the situation much worse as far as the league's existence is concerned. There are many issues here including a failure to respond appropriately by the commissioner that will need to be addressed in the offseason.

Overall it was clear to me that the trade was collusive. Playing in high stakes leagues means that there are trades that raise ethical issues virtually every year. When relatively big money is at stake tempers can flare (the owners aren't rich guys, they are all guys who just "moved up" from typical leagues). This season has seen the most egregious examples I have ever seen of nefarious dealings in my 20 years of fantasy baseball. Is it worth it? I am not sure after this year. If you think this is bad, wait until next week...

Patrick is a member of SABR's Statistical Analysis and Science of Baseball Committees and writes about fantasy baseball at The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog. He has achieved the dream of all of his MIT classmates. No, not making millions in the tech markets, but writing about baseball for free. Feel free to send along all insults and comments here.

Monday, August 27, 2007

Checking in on Pedro Martinez

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:55pm

I'm sure you all know the background of the Pedro Martinez situation. One of the best pitchers in baseball, a huge signing for the Mets franchise in 2005, had rotator cuff surgery in the offseason and hasn't pitched this year. Well, with Pedro likely one rehab start away from returning to the Mets, I thought we might look at what type of fantasy production we should expect from him in September.

Rehab starts

First, let's check out how he's fared in his four rehabs starts.

08/08/07 | R | 3 IP | 67 Pitches | 5 K | 0 BB
08/14/07 | R | 4 IP | 60 Pitches | 3 K | 1 BB | 5 days rest (+20 pitches in the bullpen afterward)
08/20/07 | A+ | 5 IP | 72 Pitches | 4 K | 1 BB | 5 days rest
08/27/07 | A+ | 6 IP | 88 Pitches | 4 K | 2 BB | 6 days rest

The strikeouts and walks aren't ultra-important, especially considering it's only against rookie and A-ball talent. We're looking for signs that Pedro's arm strength is back and that he is healthy.

The 88 pitches were a good sign, but that he waited six days between his third and fourth start isn't. Still, he was supposed to pitch on Sunday in Double-A and was bumped to Monday so he could pitch in Florida, so I don't think that should be too much of a concern. He was ready to go after five days.

Still, five days between starts isn't exactly pushing it. He'll make one more rehab start before joining the Mets, so it'll be interesting to see how it goes.

Let's see what Pedro is saying about his rehab and his health. After his start Monday night:

"I felt good overall. I feel like I used all my pitches, and I was getting more confident as the game went on. The first two innings I felt a little out of whack."

Velocity

Some are concerned that his velocity isn't quite there yet. Reports indicate his fastball was working in the 84-88 mph range Monday. It's been said that it was at 89 mph in his third start. Pedro's response:

"I'm not trying to overdo anything. Whenever velocity is needed, I'll click it. After the last game, we decided we were going to work on the cutter and the changeup. At this stage, when you are coming off an injury, you can't really work on all of your pitches at once. You just want to take one at a time."

As Pedro doesn't rely on—and hasn't thrown too many—mid-90s fastballs in recent years, I think that part of his game should be fine. After one more start, he should be able to work consistently in the 87-89 mph range, mixing in a couple in the 90-92 range. I'm not too concerned about his velocity. He has succeeded in recent years at a level very similar to where it is now.

Focus

What will be key for Martinez is, first and foremost, his ability to remain healthy and continue building up arm strength. After that, he will simply need to have good command of his pitches to be an effective starter. As he doesn't need to crank his fastball up much higher, he will need only to regain his old control and his old approach, which I think is a much smaller problem than many rehabbing pitchers face.

It seems Martinez agrees with this setiment, and it's encouraging to see that this is his focus:

"It's more about me getting command of my pitches than who I'm facing."

In one situation where the manager wanted him to walk a batter, he wanted to test himself:

"No, this is the situation I want, to see if I can make pitches, test myself. That was actually the key for the whole workout."

It's great to see that Martinez is working on his different pitches and is expressing pleasure with his progress. There's not much more you could hope to see before he actually returns. Here's another quote from after the game:

"My arm feels great."

Don't get too excited

While he threw all of his pitches, there are signs that he is still not completely confident in them. He'll reportedly throw his next bullpen session as if it were a simulated game, and make one more start against live batters before joining the Mets. In regard to his start Monday and the coming bullpen session, he had this to say:

"I'll continue to work on my changeup and my cutter, especially the back-door ones."

Those were the pitches he was working on Monday night, and I guess he still doesn't feel that they are where they need to be.

Closing thoughts

Overall, I have confidence in Pedro. His head seems to be in the right place. Hopefully, that will evolve into results—namely command of his pitches. He isn't there yet, but I think he is well on his way.

After his next rehab start, we'll look at the numbers he has put up in the past and the ones we expect him to put up in the rest of the regular season. For now, he needs to be owned in all leagues. The upside is there for him to be a dominant starter, at least for three starts. If he is still available and you need a starter who could help in four categories, pick him up.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Sunday, August 26, 2007

A look at Troy Tulowitzki

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:27pm

We haven't done a player profile in a while, so I thought today might be a nice day to do one. If you guys have any suggestions for future player profiles, feel free to let me know!

Troy Tulowitzki was drafted in the 24th round—on average—in 12-team expert leagues this season. Well, it's nearly September, and the Rockies rookie is currently the number No. 8 shortstop in fantasy baseball.

If we look at his first half and second half splits, we see that he has been even better since the break. He had a .286 batting average with nine home runs in the first half, and a .314 average with nine (in half the at-bats!) in the second half. Let's decide what we should expect in the coming five weeks and in 2008.

2006 minor league numbers

First, let's check out his minor league numbers from last year. His 83% contact rate was only all right, but his 10% walk rate was nice to see. His batted ball numbers, though, were a little less than inspiring. His line drive rate was a little below 14%, but low line drive rates don't seem to be uncommon among minor leaguers, even the top ones. In 96 major league at-bats last year, he put up a 21% line drive rate.

Given his nice power numbers this year, we might expect to find a better HR/FB than 12% for Tulowitzki in Triple-A. His 34% flyball rate was even worse to see.

While his Triple-A numbers were noticeably unspectacular, they weren't completely devoid of promise, especially in light of his brief major league experience in 2006. Last year, he put up just a 74% contact rate, but his 9% walk and 21% line drive rates were very encouraging. While he hit only one home run, it did go 442 true feet, according to HitTracker.

2007 first half numbers

Going into this season, it was completely reasonable to think Tulowitzki might struggle. While he didn't dominate, he did hold his own in the first half of the year. He put up a respectable 78% contact rate, but his 9% walk rate was very nice for a rookie. His 20% line drive rate was also quite good.

His power—on the surface—was only okay with an 11% HR/FB and 35% fly ball rate, but there was reason to expect an improved second half. Of the eight homers HitTracker had data on, five went further than 400 true feet. The furthest went 471 true feet, and another went 444.

2007 second half numbers

With 455 major league plate appearances under his belt, Tulowitzki was ready to make a jump in the second half. He improved his contact rate to 81%, and his walk rate remained relatively steady at 8%. His line drive rate improved a little to a very good 21%.

He made some (seemingly) nice strides in power, but they really weren't unexpected to the alert fantasy owner. His 40% fly ball rate might not have been predicted, but it was certainly welcome. His HR/FB rose to 18%, as we had thought it would, and the spike in fly balls only helped to emphasis Tulowitzki's good power. Of the eight home runs HitTracker has data on from the second half, five went further than 400 true feet (and one was just shy at 399).

Future expectations

Tulowitzki's .342 BABIP on the year is too high, but with a reasonable adjustment to .315, his batting average would still be .275. If we adjust his power, it gets even higher. Let's say we expect an 18% HR/FB given his HitTracker data. That would raise his batting average to .289, not much lower than it currently is. As Tulowitzki progresses, he could put up a HR/FB even higher than that, and when you realize that his contact rate could eventually improve a little (remember, it was 83% in Triple-A last year), Tulowitzki could be a legitimate candidate to hit .300 in 2008 and beyond.

I don't think there's much doubt over the legitimacy of Tulowitzki's abilities, but does he have the lineup to allow him to produce RBIs and runs? It'll depend on where the Rockies decide to hit him next year, but he has some quality players in the lineup (assuming none get traded in the off-season) with the likes of Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, and Ryan Spilborghs. Even Kaz Matsui and Willy Taveras would be able to help Tulowitzki a little with RBIs if they batted ahead of him.

There's certainly plenty of talent in Colorado, and even if it isn't used 100% efficiently, Tulowitzki still figures to be a pretty good bet for RBIs and runs. His good power and patience only improve his prospects.

Concluding thoughts

We typically expect rookies to put up worse peripheral numbers than they did in the minors, and Tulowitzki's mostly paralleled his Triple-A numbers from last year. Still, he has been pretty consistent this year, not dropping off in the second half, so he could certainly sustain his numbers. I'd say to be wary of his power, but the HitTracker data really don't lie. He has crushed some balls, and I don't see how that is a fluke.

Be cautious, but I could see Tulowitzki jumping onto the list of the top five shortstops next year. He will probably be a good guy to hold onto in most keeper leagues, and will might come at a bit of a discount in redraft leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:48pm

Much more to talk about in the National League than the American League this week.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | CL - With the Braves designating closer Bob Wickman for assignment, Rafael Soriano should see most of the save opportunities for a while. He might go back to 8th inning duty once Octavio Dotel comes back.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | ATL | CL - Should be back within a week and could take over closing duties for the Braves. Stash him until then.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Bob Wickman | ATL | DFA - Wants to close, but I don't see any team giving him that shot. If he doesn't latch on as a closer somewhere, he loses all of his value. His 1.75 K/BB is just poor.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - Was recalled today to start against the Marlins. If he stays up, he could be a decent pickup. 4.02 LIPS ERA and 1.33 DIPS WHIP before he was sent down were nice. He doesn't have a great ballpark or defense to work with, though, so use caution. Also, his 6.07 K/9 is below league average and might not be very useful.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

David Wells | LAD | SP - For the past few years, Wells has relied upon his low walk rate to compensate — somewhat — for his low strikeout rate. This year, though, he's walking a lot more batters. Since the All-Star break, he's walked as many as he's struck out. He just isn't a good pickup.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Craig Monroe | CHC | OF - Might provide a few home runs, but his batting average won't be very good and he won't get on base very much. Monroe should get some at-bats while playing left field until Alfonso Soriano returns, but then will likely only be used against lefties in right field after that.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Moises Alou | NYM | OF - While healthy, Alou is able to hit .300 with relative ease. Should also get a few home runs. He hits a pretty good amount of fly balls and has some pop in his bat. Also, he's a Met and has David Wright and Carlos Delgado ahead of him, so he should get some RBIs. In addition, he should score some runs given his good on-base percentage and decent hitters behind him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Mark Reynolds | ARZ | 3B/2B/OF - Reynolds is a guy in the Jack Cust mold, but less extreme. .383 BABIP will come down. With an adjustment to a .310 BABIP (reasonable given his 8% walk and 20% line drive rate), his batting average would be just .225. The drop off might not be that dramatic, though, because Reynolds is due for a power spike. His current 44% fly ball rate is great, and his 15% HR/FB is good, but it should be much better. Of the 10 home runs HitTracker has data on, 8 have went further than 400 true feet. His three furthest went 445, 459, and 467 true feet. With an adjustment to a 24% HR/FB (and .310 BABIP), he would be left with a .252 batting average and 18 home runs. Will have to do better than a 63% contact rate to ever get that average up.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Kemp | LAD | OF - Kemp has been picking up regular at-bats over the past 10 days. There are still four outfielders in the picture for LA, though, so that might not continue. Will play against nearly all lefties and some righties, so he has a little value. Batting average won't be very good given his 75% contact, 6% walk, and 17% line drive rates. Also has decent power, and if he adds a little muscle in the off-season it looks like he could be a pretty good power threat next year. Batting third for the Dodgers occasionally boosts his value a bit.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes | COL | CL - If you haven't picked him up yet, do it. He should be closing again in a week or two.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Waiver Wire: American League

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:00pm

Short American League Waiver Wire this week. Not really a lot going on, and not really a lot of notable guys. Hopefully next week will be better.

Chris Carter | BOS | OF - I was asked by a couple of Red Sox fans to talk about Carter, so here you go. Carter has put up some impressive numbers in the minors. His contact rate has consistently been in the high 80s and his walk rates have ranged from 9% to 13%. He hit 18% line drives in AAA last year and 24% this year. He shows good contact hitting promise. He also has some power, showing a 16% HR/FB last year and 15% HR/FB this year. Unfortunately, he doesn't really have anywhere to play in Boston right now. He should get called up in September, but he doesn't figure to be much of a fantasy option because of his lack of at-bats.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Can be strongly considered in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Ervin Santana | LAA | SP - Santana is back in Anaheim, but he isn't the best pickup. He might be able to get a couple of wins and a decent amount of strikeouts, but his ERA and WHIP don't figure to be very good. Still, in his two starts since being recalled, he has a 9/1 K/BB ratio in 12.1 innings. Watch him carefully; I don't see him keeping up very good peripherals.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jon Lester | BOS | SP - Demoted to Double A, but Lester is expected to be back in a couple of weeks. Still, he isn't very good and loses a little value, but he shouldn't be dropped in any leagues you were reasonably owning him in.

Julian Tavarez | BOS | SP - Could get lucky and pick up a win while Lester is in the minors, but Tavarez really isn't that good. If you're absolutely desperate, you can give him a try.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP - The Lester demotion shows that the Red Sox don't have complete confidence in him, raising Buchholz's value a little bit. He can be stashed in deeper leagues in case he gets some starts in September.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Josh Fields | CHW | 3B - Batting average won't be very good, but — as we went over last week — he has some power. Has been batting second lately, so he could also score some runs.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jason Bartlett | MIN | SS - Back from the DL, Bartlett is a useful middle infielder. Batting average should increase as his BABIP does, but don't expect better than a .280 average. He should help out with steals and runs.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

Keeper watch: James Hoey

Posted by Derek Carty at 10:55pm

About a week and a half ago, I spent a day talking a lot about keeper leagues. In one article, I focused on strategies for closers. I talked about targeting non-closers, picking up a bunch of them now and potentially having some cheap saves in 2008. I gave a list of guys who might make good targets, but there's one I I left out.

With Chris Ray out for all of next year, the Orioles have no apparent closer. Danys Baez is currently pitching the ninth, but I don't think his 1.24 K/BB is going to cut it for the whole 2008 season. So, that leaves us fantasy leaguers speculating on who the closer will be.

I think a good bet is James Hoey. He's never pitched more than 30 innings at one stop—at any level—so pinpointing just how good he is could be difficult. Let's look at his numbers.

2005 | R | 15.0 IP | 9.00 K/9 | 6.00 BB/9 | 43% GB
2006 | A- | 28.3 IP | 14.61 K/9 | 3.18 BB/9 | 50% GB
2006 | AA | 9.0 IP | 11.00 K/9 | 3.00 BB/9 | 36% GB
2006 | MLB | 9.2 IP | 5.59 K/9 | 4.66 BB/9 | 51% GB
2007 | AA | 17.0 IP | 13.24 K/9 | 2.12 BB/9 | 56% GB
2007 | AAA | 26.3 IP | 14.01 K/9 | 3.76 BB/9 | 40% GB
2007 | MLB | 9.0 IP | 5.00 K/9 | 5.00 BB/9 | 33% GB

What is going on with this guy? Pitching only a few innings at each level and not a lot per year. Still, he has shown great skills in his time in the minors. Those strikeout rates are amazing. It hasn't translated to the majors, but—really—we're looking at 19 innings spread out over two years. I'd probably call him a better bet than Baez next year, and considering how much scouts seem to like this guy, I wouldn't be surprised if he got a crack at the closer's job in spring training.

Jamie Walker and Chad Bradford will likely be in the mix as well, but if Dave Trembley is still managing the O's next year, fantasy owners might not need to worry. With Ray out this year, he chose to keep those two in middle-inning roles and let Baez close, despite clearly inferior skills. It could be because Baez has had experience closing in the past, and if that is the case, it might make it a little less likely Hoey overtakes him.

We'll have to wait and see what happens come March. If you're looking for another guy to pick up in the hopes of getting cheap saves next year, though, James Hoey might be a good choice. Even if Baez starts the year closing, a poor April from him and a good April from Hoey might be all it takes for a switch to be made.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Wins

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:44pm

The two most important factors in predicting wins are offensive support and pitcher skill. To figure out which pitchers are most likely to get you some points in wins, let's look at some decently skilled pitchers with good offenses backing them.

Just remember that wins are very volatile and difficult to predict, so if you stand to gain the same number of points in a category like strikeouts as you would in wins, go with the strikeouts. They are much more predictable.

First, we'll check out the top offenses in each league and how many runs they've scored.

American League

1	NY Yankees	5.97
2	Detroit		5.57
3	Boston		5.13
4	LA Angels  	5.13
5	Seattle		5.03
6	Cleveland  	5.00
7	Texas		4.96

National League

1	Philadelphia	5.42
2	Colorado	5.08
3	Atlanta		5.00
4	NY Mets		4.84
5	Florida		4.80
6	Cincinnati 	4.79
7	Milwaukee   	4.77

Wins

This list contains pitchers from a team on the lists above who are owned in less than 25% of leagues. In addition, each pitcher needs to have a LIPS RA (not ERA) better than his team's runs per game.

LAST	FIRST	TEAM R/G	LIPS RA	DIFF	G	GS	W	L	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Lohse*	Kyle	5.42**	4.56	0.86	21	21	6	12	131.7	4.58	4.07	1.38	1.28	6.64	2.13	3.12	44.13	71.18	0.321	12.57	18.6
Lohse*	Kyle	5.42**	4.88	0.54	4	4	1	0	20.7	4.79	4.24	1.34	1.31	5.47	2.26	2.42	36.43	72.06	0.307	8.65	21.04
Moyer	Jamie	5.42**	4.63	0.79	25	25	11	9	154	4.97	4.07	1.45	1.32	4.01	1.39	2.88	44.97	73.62	0.328	11.11	24.35
Francis	Jeff	5.08	4.53	0.55	26	26	13	6	162.3	4.38	4.19	1.40	1.31	6.99	2.61	2.68	41.47	74.61	0.329	9.64	18.73
Robertson	Nate	5.57	5.04	0.53	22	22	7	10	126.3	5.13	4.44	1.40	1.35	6.1	4.35	1.4	51.72	70.92	0.288	11.76	19.35
Santana	Ervin	5.13	4.74	0.39	20	20	5	11	116.3	5.96	4.30	1.40	1.36	5.79	2.86	2.02	38.52	70.98	0.305	10.1	19.46
Livingston	Bobby	4.79	4.43	0.36	9	9	3	3	51.7	4.70	4.36	1.69	1.44	6.75	3.94	1.71	32.69	75.4	0.36	7.69	16.98
Bush	Dave	4.77	4.42	0.35	25	23	9	9	143.7	5.01	4.42	1.56	1.42	7.12	3.25	2.19	35	71.43	0.328	13.45	19.74
Washburn	Jarrod	5.03	4.84	0.19	24	24	8	10	149.3	4.16	4.47	1.38	1.32	4.41	1.13	3.89	38.36	74.07	0.321	7.98	21.89
Lawrence	Brian	4.84	4.66	0.18	3	3	1	0	16	5.06	4.35	1.38	1.37	5.09	2.14	2.38	57.83	73.01	0.325	7.55	16.77
Byrd	Paul	5.00	4.82	0.18	23	23	11	5	143	4.41	4.48	1.63	1.50	6.92	4.2	1.65	39.43	72.37	0.342	10.5	21.38
Wakefield	Tim	5.13	4.95	0.18	25	25	15	10	157.3	4.35	4.49	1.39	1.39	5.06	2.89	1.75	37.95	74.59	0.3	6.48	17.52
Carlyle	Buddy	5.00	4.85	0.15	16	15	7	5	85	4.66	4.54	1.33	1.29	5.82	2.33	2.5	32.71	73.35	0.306	10.57	21.71
Weaver	Jeff	5.03	4.95	0.08	19	19	5	10	106.7	5.57	4.55	1.52	1.45	7.26	3.7	1.96	34.6	79.21	0.313	12.99	21.09
Saunders	Joe	5.13	5.08	0.05	11	11	7	1	69.3	3.25	4.61	1.47	1.38	4.98	2.11	2.36	35.54	66.12	0.331	6.86	16.45

* Kyle Lohse is on the list twice. One line includes his starts as a Red and the other as a Phillie. Since I don't have LIPS numbers combining stints with multiple teams, I simply listed them separately. You should still be able to get a feel for his skill level.
** Please be aware that most of these runs were scored in games played with Chase Utley. Utley will be returning soon, but as we mentioned the other day, may not be himself.

Concluding thoughts

That wraps up this series. I hope this has helped, and hopefully you'll be able to use it to improve your team as we are nearing the end of the season. If you have any questions—as always —feel free to email me!

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Waiver Wire efficiency: ERA, WHIP, and K

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:00pm

Sorry guys. I know I told you I'd finish up this series yesterday, but a lot came up. We'll finish everything up today and then maybe have another post late tonight.

The problem

If you are in need of ERA and WHIP help, you might be in trouble. You could go for some of our LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP favorites, but if they are all gone, you have a big decision to make. Once the likes of Shaun Marcum, Scott Baker, Wandy Rodriguez, and Orlando Hernandez are gone, you will need to decide in which categories you can gain more points: ERA and WHIP, or wins and strikeouts. It probably won't be possible to get both.

After these types of guys are gone, there won't be much left besides replacement level fantasy starters. You can either hope to catch a lucky wave from an average/below average starter, or decide to—essentially—ignore strikeouts and wins from here on out.

This is because a replacement level starter won't help you gain points in ERA or WHIP, so you have to turn to relievers. The problem with relievers, though, is that they won't get nearly as many strikeouts or wins as even a replacement level starter would.

Jonathan Broxton has appeared in 62 games, sixth most in the majors this year. Even with his 10.94 K/9, he still only has 77 strikeouts. You could take a guy like Kevin Millwood—who is available in 2.9% of ESPN leagues—who has started 23 games (tied for 64th in baseball) and has a K/9 of 6.89 (just a little above league average) and get 96 strikeouts out of him.

The advantage to going with Broxton is that he'll post a much better ERA and WHIP. The problem is that while his strikeouts might be somewhat useful, they probably won't help you gain ground in the category. Of course, Millwood probably wouldn't help much either unless you're in a pretty deep league.

The solution

So at this point, with all the quality starters gone and several good relief men available, you need to do a little math. Check out how many innings your team has used up so far, and how many you have left.

Then, you need to fool around a little bit with the numbers, deciding how many starters you should drop and how many relievers you should pick up to make up the points you need in ERA and WHIP. Just picking up one probably won't be enough, since relievers throw fewer innings than starters and therefore have less effect on your team's ERA and WHIP. You'll need to grab a few unless you're shooting for a very limited amount of ERA or WHIP points.

There's no general way of going through this math, so I can't really do it for you here. If you put in a little work, though, you'll be that much closer to a fantasy championship. Before you run these numbers, though, let's weigh our options just a little bit more.

One more option

Is there some way we would be able to gain points in three categories, instead of just two? Well, if those three are ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, it is possible. Our example above about Broxton and Millwood would indicate that this isn't possible, but we need to understand that this example is on a small scale, examining a single roster spot. If we expand it to several roster spots, we might be able to work something out.

Imagine that you drop all of your pitchers and can somehow replace them with a roster full of Jonathan Broxtons. Assuming this roster would reach your maximum innings limit by the end of the season, a roster full of Jonathan Broxtons would get more strikeouts than a roster full of Kevin Millwoods. The roster full of Millwoods would reach the limit faster, but as long as both reach the limit, the group with the higher ratio of strikeouts would get more total strikeouts given the same number of innings. Understand?

Now for the drawback to this route. In taking on a lot of relievers, you might not be able to keep more than two or three starters—if that many. By dropping these starters, you could be sacrificing some serious points in the wins category. Even if no one is closing in on you, they can make up ground a lot quicker if your total remains stagnant.

Please note that this strategy will work only at this point in the year and only for certain teams. You will have to determine if you would be able to reach your league's maximum innings limit, or come close with mostly relievers.

At the beginning of the year, stacking up on relievers wouldn't allow you to reach the maximum innings, therefore their elite strikeout rates wouldn't translate into enough actual strikeouts because you wouldn't get enough innings out of them. At this point in the year, though, it is possible in certain situations to fill out the rest of your innings with these high strikeout guys, therefore reaping the benefits of those strikeouts and the excellent ERAs and WHIPs.

You have to make sure you run the numbers very carefully. There are a lot of variables with this strategy, so you need to make sure you're not sacrificing more points than you are gaining.

With that, let's look at some of our options!

Starters - ERA and WHIP

If you're in a very close race or a deep league, and a sub-4.30 ERA or a sub-1.35 WHIP would be okay for your purposes, you could try some of these guys. For each player, I'll also list current LIPS ERA, DIPS WHIP, and K/9.

Jeff Francis | COL | SP | 23.1% | 4.19 | 1.31 | 6.99 - Best strikeout and walk rates of his career. Since the All-Star break, his K/9 has been 8.76, making his overall numbers that much more believable. His 2.76 BB/9 in that time is also encouraging.

Dustin McGowan | TOR | SP | 4.2% | 4.28 | 1.37 | 6.90 - Very borderline for this list, and it's possible he'll regress a little. Be careful if you choose him.

Kyle Lohse | PHI | SP | 5.1% | 4.24 | 1.31 | 5.47 - Not much to say about Lohse. A bland, unsexy pick, but in certain leagues he'll get the job done for you. Not very good with strikeouts or groundballs, but he has very good control, which makes him a serviceable starter.

Dave Bush | MIL | SP | 17.7% | 4.07 | 1.28 | 6.64 - Not pitching as well as last year, but that only makes an improvement more likely. Numbers since the All-Star break are very similar to his numbers on the year, so that improvement might not come. Even if it doesn't, Bush is still usable in a lot of leagues and can help your ERA and WHIP in certain ones.

Andrew Sonnanstine | TB | SP | 0.0% | 4.09 | 1.27 | 6.07 - A guy I hyped up a lot around the All-Star break due to good minor league numbers and good numbers in the beginning of his major league career, Sonnanstine has disappointed since. After his July 19 start, everything fell to ruins. Since July 25, he's put up just a 4.61 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9 without a single truly inspiring start in the mix. I still think he could be good in the future, but it might be best to hold off this year.

Starters - Strikeouts

If you're not concerned with your ERA or WHIP, here are some starters who can help you with strikeouts in most leagues.

Jeff Francis | COL | SP | 23.1% | 4.19 | 1.31 | 6.99 - The 8.76 K/9 since the All-Star break puts Francis on this list as well. Probably the best option of anyone on the list.

Rick Vanden Hurk | FLA | SP | 0.0% | 4.70 | 1.62 | 8.52 - Doesn't have a guaranteed rotation spot, and because of his terrible control, his LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP will hurt you. Still, his minor league numbers support his very useful K/9.

Chad Billingsley | LAD | SP | 14.6% | 4.07 | 1.36 | 8.50 - K/9 has dropped to 7.56 as a starter, but as it's still more than a point above league average, it can be helpful in some leagues.

Chris Capuano | MIL | SP | 25.9% | 3.89 | 1.38 | 8.14 - Has been getting unlucky this year, but if he keeps his roster spot he should help with Ks and maybe even a little with ERA.

Andrew Miller | DET | SP | 2.0% | 4.36 | 1.58 | 7.93 - Miller is expected back on Friday. Terrible control (5.03 BB/9) and therefore a poor ERA and WHIP, but his strikeouts will help you.

Relievers

If you're in a shallower league or have more than a few ERA and WHIP points to make up, you're probably better off with some of these guys.

I'm including LIPS ERA, DIPS WHIP, and K/9 as I did above, but am also including innings pitched divided by games active. That should help you figure out how often they are being used and should help with your calculations that we talked about before.

Rafael Betancourt | CLE | RP | 10.4% | 2.66 | 0.88 | 7.96 | .469 - Wow. Betancourt has been absolutely amazing. It's funny that guys like Jonathan Broxton and Pat Neshek are owned in roughly 50% of leagues, yet this guy beats them both in LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP and is owned in just 10%.

Heath Bell | SD | RP | 23.1% | 3.07 | 1.09 | 9.21 | .572 - It pains me everytime I write about Bell. I still can't forgive Omar. He's a fantastic pitcher who throws a lot of innings. Great choice. Numbers aren't quite as great as Betancourt's, but he is used more.

Derrick Turnbow | MIL | RP | 6.7% | 3.16 | 1.28 | 11.87 | .443 - The former Brewers closer is having a great year. His WHIP might not help you and he doesn't pitch as much as Betancourt or Bell, but his ERA should be useful.

Rafael Soriano | ATL | RP | 20.7% | 3.37 | 1.10 | 8.07 | .437 - Soriano is one of the bigger names on this list, so I probably don't need to go over him too much. Basically, he's good.

Cla Meredith | SD | RP | 1.1% | 3.40 | 1.31 | 6.52 | .482 - The second Padre on the list, but Meredith isn't as good a choice as Bell. His WHIP probably won't help you gain points, but his ERA might. He also doesn't strike out as many batters as a dominating reliever.

Chad Qualls | HOU | RP | 4.5% | 3.43 | 1.18 | 8.95 | .527 - The eighth inning man in Houston is used plenty, and has good numbers to back it up. There are better options, but if you're grabbing more than a couple guys, Qualls fits in well.

Juan Cruz | ARZ | RP | 0.2% | 3.52 | 1.34 | 12.26 | .452 - Generally considered No. 5 in the Arizona bullpen, Cruz's LIPS ERA is second only to Jose Valerde. He has control problems, though, so his WHIP won't be very good. Consider him if the pickings are slim.

Joaquin Benoit | TEX | RP | 23.3% | 3.52 | 1.15 | 9.97 | .528 - Since C.J. Wilson took the closer's role, Benoit's ownership has stayed relatively low. Good news for you.

Manny Delcarmen | BOS | RP | 0.1% | 3.33 | 1.20 | 9.11 | .404 - Has been in the majors only since May and has been very good.

Andrew Brown | OAK | RP | 2.6% | 2.63 | 0.92 | 10.88 | .324 - Another mid-season callup, Brown was acquired in the Milton Bradley deal. Control will probably worsen a bit, but his LIPS and DIPS numbers are so good they could afford a regression. Not really used as much as you'd like, though.

Joba Chamberlain | NYY | RP | 32.0% | 2.05 | 1.71 | 14.14 | .538 - Over the 25% barrier, but he's worth mentioning. Won't be this good all year, but he is definitely a nice pickup when using this strategy.

Concluding thoughts

That's about it for these three categories. Absolutely make sure you run the numbers to see if this strategy will work for you.

If you can fill 75% or so of your remaining innings with a group of potent relievers like these guys, you could significantly improve your place in the standings. Remember, there's still more than 20% of the season left, so there is still time to better your ERA, WHIP and strikeouts, especially if you aren't yet projected to meet the maximum innings. Just make sure that a lot of those innings are giving you great numbers and you'll be golden.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

“Tacit communication” and prospect evaluation

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:10am

In light of all the first round picks signing, I wanted to address another principle that the fantasy GM should consider when evaluating prospects. I touched on the topic of distinguishing factors in evaluating prospects in a prior column. That distinguishing factors are a prime consideration in drafting players is beyond doubt. How do these factors develop, and why should they often be disregarded?

Nobel Prize winning economist Thomas Schelling, in his classic book The Strategy of Conflict, spends a great deal of time addressing "tacit" communication. It does not refer to my unspoken admiration for Yunjin Kim, or my fan letters that I am not allowed by court order to discuss. Schelling's thesis is that certain problems can be solved without any communication at all between the players because certain innate factors naturally provide a suggested solution upon which the players will converge. The solution is not normally the optimal or best one, and that is the problem.

These tacit factors are not only important but can often be discovered in all areas of life. Baseball is no exception, as tacit communication plays a role in the development of certain precepts in the area of scouting and evaluation of minor leaguers. As fantasy players with our hard earned bucks on the line, we should be seeking the best solution.

A simple example of tacit communication is the following. Two players have no means of communication. There is $100. If they can somehow agree on a way to split the money without communicating, each will win the amount they allocated to themselves. It is no surprise that the majority of people will come to a 50-50 split naturally, and experiments verify this outcome.

A key point of Schelling's book is that in any problem there are distinguishing "tacit" factors that allow the players to converge upon them as a solution, even if there is no communication. The 50-50 split above is a good example. Without communicating at all, we naturally think of splitting it in half. Two people, two equal shares. His book addresses this principle in the context of the proliferation of nuclear missiles and the principles of deterrence. That is too high-faluting for me, though. It is vastly more important to address it in the context of fantasy baseball.

An example of the role of tacit communication is Tim Lincecum, whom I talked about in my prior column. If you are a psychologist and know why he is a lightning rod for me in my columns, let me know. Tacit communication is in large part how precepts such as a bias against short pitchers gain acceptance in the scouting community. Scouts don't sit down in a room and agree that it would be a prevailing belief (though one could argue that the collegial atmosphere of scouting makes their opinions less tacit and more explicit, but this is just an example, not gospel).

The problem with tacit communication is that it does not typically lead to optimal solutions, so recognizing their role can be valuable to the fantasy GM, and the real GM for that matter. A team that didn't draft Tim Lincecum or Roy Oswalt certainly paid the price for relying on scouting dicta derived from tacit communication.

Another example is the 90 mph yardstick. Can we really separate players based on the fact that player X throws 91 mph, but player Y throws only 89 mph? Maybe not in reality, but that 90 mph standard is one that is naturally converged upon and provides a neat stopping point for tacit communication principles. How often when you hear that a player throws "only" 89 do you think he doesn't throw hard enough for the majors? Yet, when a guy throws 90, it is as if his fastball magically is fast enough in that one mile per hour to overcome major league hitters. Damn base-10 number system.

This year much of the discussion about David Price revolved around his 6-foot-6 frame, and the fact that he is "big and athletic," with athleticism and makeup as strengths. All this may be true, but it may not be terribly relevant. There is arguably only a weak correlation between these traits and major league success. These factors provide easy convergence points, and though the correlation is weak, it does exist. His projectability based on size is a principle that developed due to tacit communication.

How is Price's stuff? Well, according to MLB.com, here is a basic scouting report: Fastball at 90-94, touching 95, slider at 84-86, "changeup is a work in progress." By comparison, here is a scouting report on Michael Main from the same source: Fastball in the mid to upper 90s, slider at 84 mph, very good arm speed on all three of his pitches (including his curve).

Both are noted to have good makeup. Main has a better fastball, and a roughly equal slider. Other than that,the only real difference? Size. The report states that Main is "not that big, which might scare some teams off, but those not afraid to take an "undersized" righthander will not shy away."

So what should the fantasy GM do? One of the most important things to see is that even in scouting reports such as the above you will see many statements that are the result of tacit communication. When evaluating a minor leaguer or a prospect, the numbers can sometimes be a strong countervailing force working against the traditional scouting principles. Experience must be a guide, but if you hear something that can't be quantified, then distrust is probably the correct course.

For example, a player is noted to have a 97 mph fastball. That can be quantified in results to some degree; just look at his K rate and BB rate and they will tell you if he is using that skill to his full advantage. Jeff Samardzija, I am looking in your direction. On the other hand, you may see that a player is noted, somewhat nebulously, to have good intangibles. Or worse yet, he has "good mound presence." Here is where the antennae must turn on.

In a league far too many years ago, I first realized the role of tacit communication when I auctioned Jeff Cirillo, and was ridiculed because of the presence of the more highly regarded Antone Williamson.

Williamson was the fourth overall pick in the first round by the Brewers. He came with glowing scouting reports and the appropriate hype that comes with these types of players: intanibles, projectable size, didn't hit for power but it will develop, the usual cliches. The only problem was that he never showed any power, never hitting more than seven home runs in any stop in the minors. Since then there have been scores of similar failures. When a player's best attribute is something that separates him from the crowd, is only tangentially related to his actual baseball skill or performance and/or can't reasonably be quantified, then I will look elsewhere for value even if he is a No. 1 one pick.

It is likely in keeper leagues that Price will be auctioned. I am virtually sure of this in my deep high-stakes league. Michael Main will most likely not be drafted even in the reserve round, nor will the 20 other guys who have similar repertoires to Price. There is no chance Price will be worth the auction money next year. When evaluating minor leaguers, understanding that many of the reasons player X is touted over player Y are merely because of distinguishing factors means value can be had in player y.

This is the essence of fantasy baseball in a nutshell. Player X may end up being a very good player (and Price probably will), but the real value lies in player Y, and fantasy baseball is primarily a game of exploiting this difference between obvious value and hidden value. When Price's name comes up at the auction I will be sitting it out.

Patrick is a member of SABR's Statistical Analysis and Science of Baseball Committees and writes about fantasy baseball at The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog. He has achieved the dream of all of his MIT classmates. No, not making millions in the tech markets, but writing about baseball for free. Feel free to send along all insults and comments here.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Batting average

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:40pm

We've got a lot of guys to talk about, so we'll jump right into it.

Batting average

Ryan Spilborghs | COL | OF | 1.3% - I've talked about him a lot over the past couple of weeks. Spilborghs should be a good bet for average in addition to home runs and RBIs.

Jose Vidro | SEA | 1B/2B | 3.0% - .347 BABIP is too high, but he has a 90% contact, 11% walk, and 20% line drive rate, so he should still put up a pretty good average. With a BABIP regression to .315, his batting average would be .291. Doesn't have much power or speed, but he could grab a decent amount of runs.

Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B | 4.9% - Even if his 7.1% HR/FB doesn't increase another hundreth of a point, I would still expect Jackson to hit .300 the rest of the way. His 88% contact rate is good, but when you look at his 12% walk and 20% line drive rates, his .287 BABIP is just too low. Crank that up to .320, and Jackson is hitting .301.

Casey Kotchman | LAA | 1B | 7.4% - His 15% line drive rate is a little worrisome, but he is selective at the plate (9% walk rate) and makes a ton of contact (91% contact rate). Batting average might come down a bit, but he should still be a pretty solid bet for a good average.

Brian Giles | SD | OF | 4.7% - Giles is one of the better guys on this list. 88% contact rate, 12% walk, and 21% line drive rates are very good. His .332 BABIP is modest enough to lead us to believe Giles should be able to post a batting average over .295, even if it regresses a bit.

James Loney | LAD | 1B | 4.7% - We are looking at a sample size of 199 at-bats, but so far, Loney has been great, contact wise. His 24% line drive rate support the .337 BABIP, although he might not be able to keep hitting so many line drives. His 86% contact rate is also good, so — while risky — Loney could help certain teams out.

Milton Bradley | SD | OF | 1.2% - .358 BABIP will come down. If it regresses to a reasonable .310 mark, he would hit .285. Will be able to grab a handful of homers and steals, too.

Scott Hatteberg | CIN | 1B | 0.1% - You would think a guy with an 88% contact, 12% walk, and 20% line drive rate over his career would be able to manage more than a .273 batting average and .289 BABIP. So what's different about this year's .301/.309 marks? It's his career high 24% line drive rate and 10% HR/FB rate. He could find himself closer to his career marks the rest of the way, though, with just a 21% line drive rate since the All-Star break and 15% line drive rate this month. And come September, Joey Votto will be with the club and could cut into his at-bats. Opt for other players.

Mark Grudzielanek | KC | 2B | 0.7% - I had expected to say you should target this guy, but his career low 17% line drive and always low 4% walk rate make me skeptical of his .334 BABIP. His 88% contact rate doesn't do enough to save him, in my opinion. Go for safer options.

Andre Ethier | LAD | OF | 0.4% - While his numbers are good, Ethier doesn't get regular at-bats. When looking trying to make up ground in the batting average category, at-bats are very important. The more at-bats of a good batting average, the more impact it will have on your team's average. 87% contact, 9% walk, 19% line drive rates are pretty good. BABIP might regress from .317 just a tad, but he should still be able to hit over .290. Still, his value is limited because of his at-bats.

Kenny Lofton | CLE | OF | 11.7% - In the same boat as Ethier. Good, sustainable numbers, but not enough at-bats to make a better option than other guys on this list.

Mike Lamb | HOU | 1B | 0.5% - His pretty good power (13% HR/FB), combined with an 11% walk rate and 19% line drive rate allow Lamb to keep batting average over .290. Still, he's another guy in the Andre Ethier, part-time play-time mold.

Concluding thoughts

Anyway, I hope that helps. I'll try and finish up the rest of the series tomorrow.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Runs

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:10pm

The pickings are slim if you need help with runs. Most of the high run guys are owned, and many of the guys that are available probably won't score many more runs than the guy he'll be replacing on your team (and who also probably has more overall value). If your trade deadline hasn't passed and David DeJesus isn't available, you need to move quickly before your league-mates who need runs realize this. If your deadline has passed, try for one of these guys.

Runs

David DeJesus | KC | OF | 9.9% - A two-time member of this series, DeJesus is probably your best bet for runs. Has a good walk rate and his batting average should come up, allowing him to get on base even more. Already has 85 runs, so DeJesus could be a big difference-maker in your league. Everyone else with over 71 runs is owned in at least 93% of leagues.

Luis Castillo | NYM | 2B | 6.8% - The new Mets second baseman should be a good bet for runs. A little undervalued because of his current total of 65. His rate should pick up, though, as he now has the likes of Carlos Beltran, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado batting behind him. Doesn't have much power and his speed isn't what it used to be, but he should help with runs and with batting average and steals a little bit.

Jason Bartlett | MIN | SS | 1.6% - Another two time member, Bartlett is still on the DL. He's a middle infielder to keep in mind when he returns in September. He takes a decent amount of walks and his batting average should increase. When it does and he starts getting on base more, his run ratio should increase batting at the top of the Twins lineup.

J.D. Drew | BOS | OF | 23.3% - Missed time in April, but in May, June, July, and August he averaged 14 runs per month. Over a full season, that would be 84 runs. That should be helpful in certain leagues, especially considering how few options we have. He's been batting fifth recently, though, which might keep that run ratio down. Has scored 6 runs so far this month, so — in full-season terms — you should maybe only expect 70-75 runs or so.

Kenny Lofton | CLE | OF | 11.8% - Doesn't play every game and has only stolen one base since the beginning of July. If he's tired and his speed is waning, his runs might take a hit too. Not a great option, but if you're desperate enough you could try Lofton. Won't help with power, but he's a good contact hitter.

Concluding thoughts

Again, it's a short list and — unfortunately — is so for a different reason than with home runs. With home runs, there were guys like Jack Cust and Jonny Gomes who could seriously help. For runs, it's just because there aren't a lot of available options. If guys like Ryan Theriot, Chris B. Young, or Mark Teahen are available, they would be good options too, but their ownership levels are higher than our exercise dictates.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:52am

Here is the National League version of the Waiver Wire for the week.

Bob Howry | CHC | RP/CL - With Ryan Dempster struggling since his return from the DL, manager Lou Piniella announced that the Cubs will go to a closer by committee approach. Dempster will still probably get some saves, but Howry is likely to grab some too, at least until Dempster's struggles stop (which it appears they might soon). If you need cheap saves, Howry is a decent choice. Keep an eye on Carlos Marmol, but I don't think he'll get many looks in the ninth inning this year.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - This Norris Hopper business is getting ridiculous. He's started 2 of 5 games since Hamilton has been back. I'm going to have to reduce his recommendation from last week if he isn't going to play everyday.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Ubaldo Jimenez | COL | SP - 9.10 K/9 makes Jimenez look like he could be useful for those looking for strikeouts, but he's only started 6 games this year in the majors, and his K/9 in AAA was 7.78. Should be able to put up a strikeout rate better than league average, but I wouldn't count on Jimenez to continue with such a high mark. Even with such a high K/9, his LIPS ERA is still just 4.45. Doesn't have very good control.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Franklin Morales | COL | SP - With Aaron Cook on the DL, Morales will get a few starts in the majors. In the minors, he's shown a good ability to strike out batters and get ground balls, but his control has been very poor. I'd avoid him if you can, but he might be a slightly better bet for strikeouts than Jiminez
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Ryan Spilborghs | COL | OF - Willy Taveras has hit the DL, and Spilborghs should get regular playing time for a while. Good power, good contact, good lineup. Recommendation up from last week.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Yusmeiro Petit | FLA | SP - Average strikeout rate, average walk rate, below average ground ball rate. Not exactly a formula for success. 4.27 LIPS ERA looks about right. If that's valuable in your league, Petit seems like a pretty safe bet.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Eric Stults | LAD | SP - Has put up okay numbers in the minors and will now be joining the Dodgers' rotation. Should be able to put up a strikeout rate around average, but his control might be a problem. He also is more of a flyball pitcher than a ground baller.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Yovani Gallardo | MIL | SP - Has given up 18 runs over his past two games, but his last start he struck out 6 batters while walking just 1. He's really only had 2 truly poor starts this year, so all the owners dropping him isn't really justified. I'd keep starting him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Adam LaRoche | PIT | 1B - After a terribly low start, LaRoche has been pretty good since. His power isn't nearly as impressive as it was last year, only putting 4 homers past 400 true feet, according to HitTracker. His batting average should be closer to .275, though, and LaRoche has some value in deeper leagues where you can start more than one first baseman.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 12 and owned in deep 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Shea Hillenbrand | LAD | 1B/3B - Talk about bouncing back. After being released by the Angels, Hillenbrand has now found himself starting for the Dodgers. Still, he probably won't be a great fantasy option. Could hit a handful of home runs, but if he hits like he did earlier in the year his batting average won't help you.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Wily Mo Pena | WAS | OF - I wish someone would just give this guy a chance. He has very good power and has shown at least an adequate ability to take walk. That skill has improved this year to the tune of an 8.2% walk rate. Of his 5 home runs with the Sox, Pena hit all five past 400 true feet, the furthest going 456 true feet. Despite his qualifications, the Nationals think it's a good idea to platoon him with Ryan Church. I normally like Manny Acta, but I disagree with this move. Church is a nice little player, but with nothing to play for this year it would be nice to see how Pena performs with no pressure and guaranteed at-bats. His value would increase with more playing time, but for now it is limited. Hopefully next year he'll get a shot full-time.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Carlos Beltran | NYM | OF - Huh? How is this guy #5 on CBS Sportsline's Most Added Players list? Are people actually dropping this guy? I don't think I need to say it, but if Beltran is dropped, grab him immediately.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Chris Young | SD | SP - Same deal as Beltran, except he is #3 on the list. Again, grab him immediately. And try to find a more competitive league next year.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Friday, August 17, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:34am

Cameron Maybin | DET | OF - Maybin, generally considered to be Detroit's top prospect, was called up to the bigs today. Maybin was drafted in 2005 and didn't sign in time to play, so we only have about a year and a half worth of games to judge him by, and the highest level he got more than a handful of at-bats in was High Class A. Will take the place of Craig Monroe, so he'll get a good number of at-bats.

He strikes out a lot and doesn't hit a lot of line drives, so he shouldn't be expected to hit for a high batting average. He does walk a lot though (although he should walk less in the majors) and has good speed, so he might be helpful with steals. He has shown a little bit of power, so he might pick up a handful of home runs. Still, it will be tough to count on a kid fresh out of the Florida State League (excluding his 6 games in AA) for much fantasy production.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Clay Buchholz | BOS | SP - Talked about Clay earlier this week. Excellent minor league numbers, okay start today. Got sent back down today. When he comes back in September it could just be in a bullpen role. Stash in deep leagues, but keep expectations relatively low for this year.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues without a spot in the rotation. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Alex Gordon | KC | 3B - I didn't realize just how much power Gordon has shown this year until I looked at his HitTracker file yesterday when I wrote about him. He's hit 11 home runs so far, but not one of them has been under 400 true feet. When his shorter fly balls start clearing fences, Gordon will seemingly explode. Get him now while you can. Might even be undervalued going into 2008. Bad news is that his walks and line drives have been down since the All-Star break, although they've bounced back this month. Batting average won't be great, but he'll help in HR, RBI, and SB (and a little in R).
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues without a spot in the rotation. Should be owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Hank Blalock | TEX | 3B - Will probably return September 1. Is a pretty good contact hitter — better than his 2005 and 2006 batting averages indicate — and has shown decent power, but it is difficult to tell how his shoulder injury will affect him. He's also returning to a lineup that is now missing Mark Teixeira and Kenny Lofton. Keep expectations low, but Blalock could contribute a bit in deeper leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Howie Kendrick | LAA | 2B - I've never been a big Kendrick fan. In the majors, his walk rate has been terrible (3%) and his line drive rate has been pretty bad too (15%). His contact rate has only been decent, 83% in 2006 and 80% in 2007. He also doesn't have a whole lot of power or speed. His lineup is the biggest thing he has going for him, but the lack of power won't allow him to get a lot of RBIs and the lack of patience won't allow for a lot of runs.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Danys Baez | BAL | CL - Chris Ray is officially out for the rest of the year (and most of 2008 as well), so Baez should be the closer the rest of the way. Not great skills, but saves are saves, especially at this point in the year. Needs to be owned.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

C.J. Wilson | TEX | CL - Getting all the saves since Eric Gagne was traded, it seems like Wilson is the choice closer for the Rangers, not Joaquin Benoit. Decent peripherals, good strikeout rate. Own him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Joe Blanton | OAK | SP - Blanton's ownership has dropped to 44% in ESPN leagues as his LIPS ERA has dropped to 3.94. Control is still good, but his K/9 has fallen to 5.30, more in line with previous years. If a guy like Shaun Marcum or Scott Baker or Wandy Rodriguez is available, you can jump ship on Blanton. I've said these guys are better than Blanton for a while now, though. If they, or similar guys, aren't available, you probably won't find any that are too much better.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Vicente Padilla | TEX | SP - Back from the DL, Padilla still isn't a great fantasy pick. His career best K/BB was 2.42 in 2001 and 2002 — in the National League — and he will only post a K/9 around league average. Plus, he plays in Arlington with a less than stellar Texas offense. Opt for other pitchers.
Recommendation - Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Lenny DiNardo | OAK | SP - 3.29 ERA has DiNardo getting a look by some fantasy owners... just don't be one of them. 5.14 LIPS ERA and a K/9 not much higher than his BB/9 is all you should need to hear to know you need to stay away.
Recommendation - Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be owned only in the deepest AL-only leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Thursday, August 16, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Steals

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:59pm

We continue our "Waiver Wire Efficiency" series with some guys who could help you with steals.

Unlike with a lot of the home run guys, you will need to take a serious hit in the other four categories with most of the base thieves. Most are fast but don't have a lot of other skills, so their respective teams don't give them a whole lot of playing time.

This has both positives and negatives for you. If the player can't hit for a very high average, you will be able to increase your stolen base points while your batting average points remain relatively the same. Of course, if you are lacking in several categories, you'll be getting very little help out of whatever spot you choose to play one of these guys in.

If this is the case, you're probably better off trying to improve the other categories, unless you can get one of the guys who can help with more than just steals.

Stolen Bases

Dave Roberts | SF | OF | 7.3% - Not a fantastic contact hitter, very little power, but Roberts can steal a base. With his speed and 9% walk rate he could also score a few runs, although being a Giant will compress his totals. Still, you're looking for steals and Roberts might be your best option.

Chris B. Young | ARZ | OF | 22.4% - Batting average is terrible, but his walk and line drive rates have been good over the past few weeks (around 11% and 19%, respectively), so he should do better than his current .231 average. Has pretty good power and hits atop a good lineup, so if you have little room for vertical movement in the batting average category, Young would make a great pickup.

Reggie Willits | LAA | OF | 21.4% - One of the better options, Willits can run and will help in other categories. Batting average will come down a little but won't be terrible, and he can score runs.

Jason Bartlett | MIN | SS | 2.2% - Will be placed on the Disabled List shortly, but he's someone to keep in mind for September. 21 SBs so far, and when his batting average increases — as it should — and you add in his 8% walk rate, Bartlett should steal even more bases. Will hurt in HR and RBI, but he should be solid otherwise.

Michael Bourn | PHI | OF | 0.0% - On the DL, but in just 109 at-bats and 40 1B+2B+BB, Bourn has stolen 18 bases. If he ever falls into a full-time role, he would be an absolute stolen base machine. Still, he's proven he doesn't need regular playing time to steal bases. If your team can afford it, take Bourn and his limited at-bats (and the limited impact in R, RBI, HR, and BA that come with it) and reap the benefits of his steals.

Ryan Freel | CIN | 2B/3B/OF | 10.6% - Also on the DL, and when he returns he'll have some hurdles to overcome. His manager didn't even play him everyday when Josh Hamilton was injured (opting for Norris Hopper), so he will have to battle for at-bats. Still, if you need a middle infield option, Freel could be a good one. Can hit for a pretty good average, score runs, and steal bases with a little bit of pop.

Jerry Owens | CHW | OF | 0.2% - Not very good power, not very good on-base skills, but when he does get on he can run. Will be a hindrance in the other four categories, but he will get some steals and has been getting at-bats lately.

Nook Logan | WAS | OF | 1.2% - Same deal as Owens. Don't be fooled by the .275 batting average... it comes along with a .374 BABIP.

Alex Gordon | KC | 3B | 15.6% - Not the best base stealer, but if you're looking for a boost in the category out of your third base spot, Gordon is a good choice. He's also got a little pop and should see his batting average come up a little.

Akinori Iwamura | TB | 3B | 9.8% - Power hasn't been what I thought it would be, but he does have 8 stolen bases and plays third base. He has pretty good on-base skills and should have plenty of opportunities for more. Won't help much in HR and RBI, but BA and R should be alright.

Coco Crisp | BOS | OF | 11% - Won't hurt the other categories much (HR and RBI a little) and can steal bases. One of the better options if you're looking for steals without taking a hit in the other categories.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Waiver Wire efficiency: Home runs

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:02pm

I spoke yesterday about efficiently using the Waiver Wire to help you grab a few extra points in certain categories. Today, we'll look at some players who can help you do this.

The "Home Run" category might be the easiest category to make up ground in this year. Some of these guys would be owned in 70%+ leagues with a better batting average or a bigger name or regular playing time. If some of them had as much value in three or four categories as they do in the 'HR' category, they'd be Top 50 players. I have no doubt that Jack Cust and Jonny Gomes would be able to hit 40 homers one year with at-bats everyday. That type of power can be very helpful down the stretch for many teams.

Some of these guys aren't everyday players, but for this category, it doesn't matter much. As long as they can hit home runs (which they all have proven they can do so far), it doesn't matter if they aren't getting full-time at-bats. The raw home run numbers will still be there. Less playing time could actually benefit your team if that player is a poor contact hitter. Less at-bats equals less effect on your team's cumulative batting average. That's not to say more at-bats won't equal more home runs, but you don't need to avoid a player just because he doesn't play everyday. They will still put up enough home runs to help you.

Another note about the "Waiver Wire Efficiency" strategy in general. In its implementation, there may be times when you take one of these players and use him over a player with more value. Always keep you ultimate goal in mind: gaining as many points as possible. If that's what you have to do to achieve that goal, it is perfectly acceptable. For example, if you have little room to move in batting average, runs, and stolen bases but several points to gain in home runs, playing Shelly Duncan over Juan Pierre might be a sound strategy, even though Pierre is the superior fantasy player in the grand scope of things.

The list of players follows the usual Waiver Wire format with a couple of small changes. I don't include a recommendation as that's not really the purpose of this strategy. I do include, now, the percentage of ESPN leagues these players are owned in. I'm going to keep all players I mention below the 25% mark to make sure there is a good chance he will be available in your league.

With that, we'll take a look at our home run candidates.

Home Runs

Jack Cust | OAK | OF | 7.5% - Won't start everyday, but I'm still an avid supporter of Cust as a fantasy player. .372 BABIP is too high, and despite his good power I have to think his 36% HR/FB is a little high too. Don't expect a continued .270 batting average.

Jonny Gomes | TB | OF | 1.2% - Might lose some time with Rocco Baldelli due back at the beginning of September, but Gomes has been getting regular at-bats lately and has very good power. Doesn't deserve to be benched, so hopefully Joe Maddon will see this. Batting average won't be much higher than .260 from here on out.

Ryan Spilborghs | COL | OF | 1.9% - I have a feeling Spilborghs will be on a few of these lists. With Willy Taveras hitting the DL, Spilborghs should get some regular playing time. I talked about him in last week's Waiver Wire, so I won't repeat myself. He has shown very good power so far this year, and he will be able to help you with other categories too.

Josh Fields | CHW | 3B | 2.7% - HR/FB has increased at every level of the minors, culminating in a 19% mark in AAA to start this year. Has hit 6 of 12 home runs past 400 true feet, according to HitTracker, so his 22% HR/FB in the majors might be sustainable. With Joe Crede out for the rest of the year, Fields could give a spark to some fantasy clubs. Batting average might dip just a little below .250.

Jose Guillen | SEA | OF | 13.5% - I've found it funny all year how Guillen gets overlooked. His power isn't as potent as some of the other guys on the list, but his power is legit this year and he can post a .275-.280 batting average. Adam Jones might take a few at-bats from him, but it's not too much to worry about.

Shelly Duncan | NYY | UT | 0.4% - Not my first choice, for several reasons. The first is play time. The second is because he hasn't been hitting the ball far, despite having 6 HRs. His power is mostly a function of his 50% fly ball rate. If he can't keep that up, his home runs will drop. They will drop anyway as his 40% HR/FB is not sustainable. Go for the other choices if possible.

John Buck | KC | C | 13.2% - Hasn't homered since July 21, but before then he was showing fantastic power. I don't believe it is gone, so if you think improving the power production from your catcher position could help your team, giving Buck a shot might not be a bad idea, albeit a risky one.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Strategy: Efficiently using the Waiver Wire

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:53pm

We'll make it quick today and go heavy tomorrow.

As I mentioned in one of my strategy articles (Trading strategy: Value), at this point in the year the standings are starting to get sorted out. Certain categories you have little room to improve, but in others there is a lot of wiggle room and plenty of possible points to pick up. I talked about this last time as part of a trading strategy... to target those players who can best help you gain points.

Since many trade deadlines have passed, that route may now be closed. If you weren't able to get what you needed, it isn't necessarily time to panic yet. It is possible to find some gems on the Waiver Wire that would serve your purposes.

It's likely most of these players will hurt you in other categories — that's why they're sitting on the wire in the first place — but if the categories a certain player will hurt you in are irrelevent now (there's little chance of you moving up or down), it might be worth picking that player up to help in the category that you can move upward vertically in, even if it means replacing a player that is generally considered to have more value.

The Waiver Wire articles will remain the way they are, giving a player's full value instead of highlighting players that can only help certain teams in certain situations. Those types of players will be tackled separately over the next few days. We'll look at maybe three categories tomorrow, take a break on Friday and Saturday for the Waiver Wire, and then tackle some more categories on Sunday — and Monday if there are any left to cover.

Anyway, we'll talk more about this tomorrow before we dive in.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Prospect highlight: Clay Buchholz

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:55am

The last big pitching call-up of the year appears to be on the horizon. Clay Buchholz of the Boston Red Sox is expected to start a game in Friday's double header. He isn't guaranteed to remain in the majors after that, but with a good start, he could supplant Jon Lester as Boston's 5th starter. Let's check out his minor league numbers.

2005 | R | 41.1 IP | 9.80 K/9 | 1.96 BB/9 | 5.00 K/BB | 51% GB
2006 | A- | 102.7 IP | 10.26 K/9 | 2.54 BB/9 | 4.04 K/BB | 46% GB
2007 | AA | 90.0 IP | 12.40 K/9 | 2.30 BB/9 | 5.39 K/BB | 46% GB
2007 | AAA | 30.1 IP | 14.24 K/9 | 2.37 BB/9 | 6.00 K/BB | 45% GB

There really isn't anything not to like. He strikes out a ton of batters with pretty good control and gets more ground balls than fly balls. His K/9 shouldn't be in double digits in the majors, but I think he's got a really good shot to have one above 8.00. He'll probably be able to keep his BB/9 under 3.50, leaving him a K/BB of at least 2.28. It will probably be closer to 3.00.

The only concern is his lack of Triple A innings. He didn't even post a ton in Double A. In 120 innings between Double and Triple A this year, though, he did put up fantastic numbers. I wouldn't be too worried.

Buchholz should contribute in K, ERA, and WHIP, and when you add in the Red Sox offense, he should contribute in wins as well. He should be picked up in all but shallow leagues in case he sticks in the majors. Jon Lester owners, on the other hand, should look to deal him while they can. They really shouldn't have picked him up in the first place (except in very deep leagues), but there still might be time to correct this error.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Using propaganda in trading, and trading overrated players

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 9:04am

There are hordes of strategic principles that the fantasy GM can use when it comes to trading. One is the use of propaganda and another is to identify excellent players that are overrated, and will bring more in trade than they will likely produce. Easier said than done of course. Here is an example from my first trade of the year in my high-stakes league.

In April I was forced to make a trade for a closer. Sadly, I kept BJ Ryan this offseason, since he had a very favorable $12 contract that expired after this year. On April 16 it was announced that he had an elbow ligament problem and shortly thereafter was out for the year. I had Ryan in three of my four leagues, and the one I didn't was an NL only. Ugh.

Given that I viewed myself as a strong contender, and my other closer was (and is) Bobby Jenks, it was immediately clear that I needed a top closer. At that time one of my my prime trade commodities was Brian McCann. I auctioned McCann last year for $12 and he was worth every penny! The problem though was that his numbers were simply not supported by his skills. He had a huge second half, his batting average was 30 points higher than it should have been, and his power appeared to be out of line with his minor league numbers.

When it comes to players like McCann (or Stephen Drew, who I discussed in a prior column) that I think are overrated, I am usually determined to trade them. They almost always have more value in trade than they will actually produce; most owners are not familiar with the more advanced "expected" metrics, or even when they are, they still tend to believe what they see rather than what should be the case. A full understanding of this principle and how to apply it in practice can easily be your most potent tactical weapon.

When applying this principle, it is almost irrelevant who the actual player is. If the player is overrated, then he must go, and usually early. If it is a guy like McCann, who I loved as a player, it makes it more difficult, but one has to divorce personal feelings for the good of the team. This is the fantasy version of Sal Maglie throwing at his mother.

Who was the best closer to target? I targeted Joe Nathan or Francisco Rodriguez. Nathan was on a sweet long term contract and his owner was no fool so he wasn't going anywhere. The owner that had K-Rod also had Tim Lincecum, who I and many others coveted. However, I wanted him not to keep but as a trade commodity!

Lincecum was a special case, since he has huge talent, but no matter how talented he is, as a contender I will trade him almost every time. Trading young studs, especially pitchers, for valuable, reliable everyday hitters is a bread and butter move, and guys like Lincecum bring a pretty penny. Last year I made a similar trade, getting Justin Morneau in May for Alex Gordon. This is something that should be planned (or budgeted) for at auction or draft time, and not left to chance.

Lincecum, as talented as he is, was rushed to the majors and wasn't likely to be an ace out of the box. But most people thought that he could actually be an ace or close to it; many of the comparisons were to Francisco Liriano. But the fact is that the Lirianos of the world are very rare, and given how fast Lincecum moved it is likely that he will have growing pains and streakiness. If I could get close to ace value, it is an easy deal.

So far, admittedly, Lincecum has been proving me wrong; though he is not yet pitching like an ace, he is pretty close. Nevertheless, it is the process that matters. Most times these guys disappoint.

So, how to get Lincecum? Since he was such a hot commodity, it was clear that I needed to have some negative publicity about him. So I went on a 10-day negative publicity campaign to his owner (though I don't feel as slimy as a politician), who is a close pal who is always willing to talk baseball. This owner is no fool and is sharp and a tough negotiator.

Essentially, every day I was emailing and calling him with any scrap of news I could find; stuff on his unorthodox delivery, stuff on his college workload etc. One useful nugget was the group of players that had similar K/PA numbers.

Here is the list. Ignoring Lincecum, 4 were mediocre to non-existent in the Majors, Kazmir has been a disappointment, and the rest are all good. In a way this is sobering; if you asked Lincecum owners whether he would be a disappointment if he turned out like Josh Beckett what would they say? I bet most would say yes, and Beckett is clearly the best on this list:

Player	        Year	K%
Tim Lincecum	2006	30.90%
Scott Kazmir	2002	28.60%
Ryan Anderson	2000	28.50%
Brad Lidge	2001	27.40%
Josh Beckett	2001	26.80%
Jesse Foppert	2002	25.90%
Juan Pena       1999	25.90%
Rich Hill       2005	25.50%
F. Liriano	2005	25.50%
Paul Abbott	1997	25.30%

Before you start emailing me, note that I am not necessarily saying that this list has any actual relevance to future stardom; Lincecum not only was number one on the list but far better than every other pitcher. The negotiating point to his owner was that even under a best case scenario there was only a 50% chance or so that Lincecum turned into a even an above-average pitcher, based on this list at least.

My position was that he could easily go the way of someone like Andy Benes, another hugely heralded pitcher who took some time to become valuable and had an excellent but perhaps disappointing career. Eventually, I wore him down and got him to deal Lincecum to me.

The deal: I traded McCann, Michael Cuddyer, and Luke Hudson for K-Rod, Mike Sweeney, Lincecum, and Rod Barajas. In a very deep league like my high-stakes league guys like Sweeney and Barajas have value; we have a 6200 AB minimum (with 14 hitters) and they get at-bats, plus have a bit of pop. I had essentially a zero as my second catcher in the NL and in my utility spot in the AL, so they at least had short term value. Of course I had no intention of keeping Sweeney for the long term; I was hoping to get a hot month or two. In fact, I dealt him in my very next trade.

So far this has been a fair deal; K-Rod has arguably been the most valuable closer, McCann has disappointed (not surprisingly), I traded Lincecum to get David Ortiz and got Cuddyer back in a later deal. I would love to have Lincecum for next year, but if you always play for next year you will always be waiting for next year.

Patrick is a member of SABR's Statistical Analysis and Science of Baseball Committees and writes about fantasy baseball at The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog. He has achieved the dream of all of his MIT classmates. No, not making millions in the tech markets, but writing about baseball for free. Feel free to send along all insults and comments here.

Monday, August 13, 2007

Keeper league strategy: Injuries

Posted by Derek Carty at 4:12pm

The final article for today, we'll talk about how trading for injured players can pay a world of dividends for your team next year.

Capitalizing on injuries in keeper leagues

When news broke that Chase Utley had fractured his hand and would be out 4-6 weeks, many of his owners watched as their championship dreams floated away. With the drop-off from Utley to Maicer Izturis, one owner didn't see how he could make up that production. Even if he tried to trade Utley, he likely wouldn't be able to get much value for him. That was until one owner came along and offered up Jason Bay.

Out of context, this seems like a ridiculous move. In the hypothetical league I'm talking about, though, it was a genius move. The first thing to know is that it's a keeper league. The Utley owner was in second place and had a legitimate chance to finish in first. The Bay owner was in tenth place and did not.

He had paid $40 at auction for Jason Bay, predicting a huge breakout, and — after making several ill-fated moves like this one — had found himself in the basement of his league. Oddly enough, Utley was auctioned for just $30 a few hours into the auction. The market — especially for second basemen — saw inflation early, and a number of short-sighted owners didn't realize that it was likely Utley would come cheaper later.

The Utley owner was thrilled to get a guy as good as Jason Bay for his damaged goods and keep his championship hopes alive, and the Bay owner (who was fortunate enough to read this article before his league's trade deadline

) was equally thrilled to get a good keeper like Utley for such a reasonable price. Since Bay wasn't in his plans for next year at $40, it made no difference if he traded him, dropped him, or let him sit on his roster the rest of the year.

By now, I think you've figured out this strategy. Target good, keepable players that were recently injured on teams still in the championship hunt. Explain to these owners how six weeks of Roger Clemens is much more valuable than three weeks of Ben Sheets... and that's assuming he doesn't suffer a setback. Most owners will see the logic in this, get themselves back into the race, and kindly give you a very nice keeper.

Players to target

Here's a list of batters currently on the DL who might make good targets:

And here are some pitchers:

Of course, depending on their price tags and how many players you are allowed to keep, not all of these guys would be good to go after.

Player notes

I'd just like to quickly talk about a couple of these guys.

Nick Johnson has great numbers and might come easily in a trade, especially if his owner is in the running for this year. Everyone knew Johnson would miss a good chunk of this year, so he probably came cheaply — if he was auctioned at all. Still not active, he might come even cheaper in a trade. He could be a great player next year, especially if the Nationals make a few moves to improve their offense. If nothing else, getting Johnson would give you another option for next year.

Francisco Liriano is another guy like this, albeit one with much more hype. He possesses that drool-worthy combination of strikeouts, walks, and ground balls that is so rare in a pitcher. Were it not for his injury, he almost certainly would have been the #1 pitcher on my personal rankings coming into this year. He will be just a year removed from Tommy John surgery, though, so temper your expectations a bit.

Also, a warning about Chase Utley, from Rick Wilton:

Players coming off wrist and hand injuries rarely regain their normal power levels for up to a year after the injury. Even if he's able to regain his power stroke in less than a year, he sure as heck isn't going to find it in September. All we have to do is look at Derrek Lee as an example to see how a wrist injury, albeit a much more serious one than Utley's, causes a player to lose some power for an extended period of time. The standard guideline for that power drop is at least 12 months.

This is something else to consider when pursuing these trades. Make sure that the injury the targeted player has sustained isn't the type that will cause a decrease in production next year or is one that the player could continue to struggle with next year.

Concluding thoughts

That wraps up today's keeper league discussion. If you use these strategies, I think you'll find yourself in a better position come March. If you have any questions, feel free to send me an email.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Keeper league strategy: Closers

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:51pm

This is the second article in today's three-part series on keeper leagues. It will focus on a nice strategy to help deal with some tricky closer situations.

Closers in keeper leagues

Again, all keeper leagues are different, but if you are in one where your league-mates make a habit of keeping top closers, this strategy will be especially good for you.

In these types of leagues, when auction day (or draft day) rolls around, the number of closers will be limited. Those who haven't kept a top closer will be bidding against each other for the left-overs... the second tier closers. By default, their price will rise, quite possibly above their raw value. This can trickle down the list of closers until Seth McClung (to take an example from this year) is being auctioned for some crazy amount, like $14.

So how do you avoid this? Do you simply punt saves? Do you overpay for a closer? Hopefully, you won't have to do either. Hopefully, this draft-day inflation won't happen. The intelligent owner, though, will prepare — just in case — read the market come draft day, and decide on a course of action.

If you're out of the running this year, the stats you accrue over the remainder of 2007 make no difference to you. You could, theoretically, drop every player you don't intend to keep, tank, and it wouldn't make an ounce of difference. Of course, I don't advocate this. You shouldn't have your keepers set in stone yet, although you should definitely have a good idea who they will be. (It would also annoy the rest of your league if you drop a $58 Albert Pujols because you decide he's too expensive to keep. Might even get you kicked out before you can smoke them all in 2008!)

Knowing this, feel free to drop any overpriced, old, or otherwise unkeepable players and pick up some that fall into the next category: middle relievers with the inside track for a job closing. The owners in your league who are in it for this year might be ignoring these guys. Since you are concerned with next year, take the inside track while you can. Any advantage you can get is one worth pursuing.

When Brad Hennessey gets auctioned for $25 next year, you might be sitting on the Indians' newly anointed closer Rafael Betancourt for $1. The great news is that it won't cost you anything in the short term because you're already out of it! How's that for value?

Of course, there's no way to predict who will be closing next year for certain, but you don't have to. If you're out of it, you just need to play the odds a little bit. Pick up five guys from the next list and, come March, if any of them have been promoted, decide to make that guy a keeper. That'll show up that guy who's keeping Joe Nathan for $32.

Future Closer Candidate	Team	Current Closer
Rafael Betancourt	Indians	Joe Borowski
Akinori Otsuka	Rangers	Otsuka/Benoit/Wilson
Joaquin Benoit	Rangers	Otsuka/Benoit/Wilson
C.J. Wilson	Rangers	Otsuka/Benoit/Wilson
Bill Bray	Reds	David Weathers
Joel Zumaya	Tigers	Todd Jones
Fernando Rodney	Tigers	Todd Jones
Octavio Dotel	Braves	Bob Wickman
Rafael Soriano	Braves	Bob Wickman
Eric Gagne	Red Sox	Jonathan Papelbon
Carlos Marmol	Cubs	Ryan Dempster
Angel Guzman	Cubs	Ryan Dempster
Taylor Tankersley	Marlins	Kevin Gregg
Henry Owens	Marlins	Kevin Gregg
Matt Lindstrom	Marlins	Kevin Gregg
Chad Qualls	Astros	Brad Lidge
Heath Bell	Padres	Trevor Hoffman
Dan Wheeler	Devil Rays	Al Reyes
Luis Ayala	Nationals	Chad Cordero
Jon Rauch	Nationals	Chad Cordero
Tony Pena	D'Backs	Jose Valverde
Casey Janssen	Blue Jays	Jeremy Accardo

If I was a gambling man and had to pick five guys off this list, I would probably take Betancourt, Otsuka, Dotel, Soriano, and Marmol — although they are just my guesses. Any of those guys would make very nice closers and fine keepers in most leagues.

Manny Corpas is another guy who you could pickup (once Brian Fuentes starts closing in September and Corpas owners ditch him). He won't start the year as the closer, but there's a good chance Fuentes will be traded in July and you'll get half a season out of Corpas. If none of your other guys pan out, half a season of saves is well-worth $1, if your league works that way.

You might be thinking now, "good strategy, but what if — after everyone sees me using it this year — they copy it next year?" The first thing I would say is that hopefully next year you'll be in such a good position that you'll be in first, with a number of great keepers, and won't have to worry about strategies like these.

If you are in the middle of the pack again, though, it wouldn't necessarily be bad news for you. If enough people can get closers cheap like this, it could right the auction-day closers market, allowing closers to go for normal value instead of seeing rampant inflation. Need another positive? I've got 22 guys on the list above, and I've probably left a few guys out. As long as you act early, you should have no trouble getting enough to use the strategy yourself going into 2009.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Keeper league strategy: Winning

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:14pm

Sorry for not posting yesterday. It was the trade deadline in a couple of my leagues, and I was working the phones. As per my own advice, I had completed the majority of my trades a few weeks ago and laid the groundwork with the owners who made the mistake of wanting to wait to trade. Those were the owners I was working with yesterday (over the past few days, really). In the words of my favorite Kazakh reporter, "Great success!"

First, a quick note. I had originally planned this as one article, but since it ran longer than expected, I'm going to break it up into three. Expect the remaining articles in the series shortly!

Keeper leagues

Most of this year, my writings have been dedicated to redraft leagues. I've rarely talked about keeper leagues, despite their growing role in the world of fantasy baseball. This might be because of the varying rules in keeper leagues. It would be difficult to find two leagues with exactly the same setup, so giving generalized advice can be difficult.

Many readers that are in keeper leagues have been in regular contact with me for advice, but I've never written up a formal post about them. I know that some trade deadlines have passed, but in other leagues there is still time. If you're in a keeper league and are playing for next year, listen up, even if your deadline has passed.

Rule #1: Always play to win

If you're sitting in fifth place right now and are confident you can come in second or third by making a couple of trades... don't. Unless you're in an ultra high-stakes league where you can make a small fortune by coming in third place, don't play for it. Always play for first. Whether that first comes this year or next is up to you, but never fall into the trap of settling for less. If you don't think you can win, go into 'next year' mode.

I can't speak for everyone, but I know, for myself, that second place is simply not satisfying. Second place, in anything, feels the same as last. I always go 100% at everything I do and settle for nothing but first. I care more about the win than the money. Of course, some of you probably are the opposite, valuing money more than the win. Whatever your top priority, playing for less than first is a mistake.

In our example from above, going from fifth to second might require you to trade a player who would be valuable next year. Avoid this temptation. The big money — and the glory — come from first place. Be patient. Would you rather come in third twice or first once and fifth once? And since you're aiming for that first to come next year, it becomes even more likely that you'll be able to take first in the years that follow. If you're continually playing for third, hoping for some luck to allow you to take first, it will be difficult to break that cycle of mediocrity.

Set yourself up really well for next year, and the chips will fall into place from there. The next couple of articles will explain some not-so-obvious ways to do this.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Saturday, August 11, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:42pm

The National League is much more interesting than the AL this week. One guy, in particular, has me excited for next year, should he get a starting role. I think you'll figure out who that is as you read.

Josh Hamilton | CIN | OF - Ryan Freel is still on the DL and Hamilton is coming off. He should get regular playing time even with the Reds' infatuation with Norris Hopper. As long as the injury didn't affect him much, he should continue putting up good power numbers with a .280-ish batting average. His good walk rate will help him score some runs.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Eddie Guardado | CIN | OF - David Weathers's job is pretty safe. I don't see Everyday Eddie picking up many saves, even if he probably is a better option than Weathers.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep NL-only leagues.

Brian Fuentes | COL | RP - Making rehab appearances, Fuentes might be back in the majors in a week or two. It might take him another couple of weeks after that to regain the closer's role. Still, if you're looking for saves, Fuentes is worth stashing. Barring another injury, Fuentes will close in September.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues with a DL-spot.

Bob Howry | CHC | RP - Another decent pickup for save speculators. Ryan Dempster hasn't pitched very well since returning from the DL, so a trip back to the sidelines is a possibility. He could also be temporarily removed from the role until he regains his form. In either case, Howry would probably get the save chances, even though Carlos Marmol has been pitching well.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Ryan Spilborghs | COL | OF - WOW. I was expecting to write how his 10 home runs are flukish, but his HitTracker data is fantastic. 8 went further than 400 true feet, and two went further than 450. Add in a decent 35% fly ball rate, and Spilborghs (gotta get used to spelling that one) could be a nice pickup for teams looking for a late season HR boost. 22% HR/FB doesn't look so bad anymore. I don't know if he can stay this hot, but at this point I wouldn't be surprised if that number goes up. The downside to his power is that he hits most to center, which will prevent some of the shorter ones from clearing the fence. He also boasts a 83% contact rate, 9% walk, and 20% line drive rate. His .348 BABIP is probably too high, but he could still hit .300 the rest of the way. Isn't playing everyday, but when he does he could be active in many leagues. If he starts playing more this recommendation would improve, and I would then take him over Josh Hamilton.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Byung-Hyun Kim | ARZ | SP - Won't give you a good ERA or WHIP, but if you're desperate for strikeouts, Kim is a cheap option.
Recommendation - Should only be owned by teams desperate for strikeouts.

Patrick Misch | SF | SP - Pitched in both AA and AAA this year and last. Showed good control both times at AA, but it wasn't good in his first stint in AAA. In 65 IP this year there, his BB/9 was 1.53. Of course, it was as a reliever. His K/9 in the majors might not go much higher than 5.00, but he has the ability to show good control. Only alright in regard to ground balls. There are better options.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Anthony Reyes | STL | SP - Has always had decent peripherals. K/9 should go above 7.00, but his control is only so-so. More of a fly ball pitcher, posting a 36% xGB%. Better than Misch, less strikeouts than Kim, but puts up enough to be useful without killing your ERA and WHIP.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Rick Ankiel | STL | OF - It'll be interesting to see Ankiel's HitTracker data tomorrow after his 2 homers tonight. 24% HR/FB and 41% fly ball rate in AAA this year was impressive. Not a good contact hitter, though, and will have a tougher time than Spilborghs finding playing time. Chris Duncan, Jim Edmonds, Juan Encarnacion, Ryan Ludwick, and So Taguchi are already in the crowded St. Louis outfield. If you need power, you can try Ankiel, but I think Hamilton and Spilborghs would be better pickups.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Shawn Hill | WAS | SP - A good synopsis might call Hill a poor man's Fausto Carmona. That's not exactly a compliment, though. Might have a tad lower K/9 with a few less ground balls. Coming off the DL soon, Hill might have a little value.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Matt Belisle | CIN | SP - The Reds' second most skillful starter (behind Aaron Harang) was sent down today. Was a victim of bad luck with a 5.40 ERA and 3.98 LIPS ERA. If he is called back up, it's a good possibility it will only be to join the bullpen. The Reds don't even have a definite replacement yet. Another example of poor Reds management. It's a shame really. A smart MLB team might buy low on Belisle this winter, which would increase his value for next year.
Recommendation - Can be dropped in all but the deepest leagues, unfortunately.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Waiver Wire: American League

Posted by Derek Carty at 6:41pm

Sorry guys. I started writing this yesterday, but got called away and didn't have an opportunity to get back to it. We'll just do both leagues today.

Joba Chamberlain | NYY | RP - With Mariano Rivera at the back of the 'pen, Chamberlain won't get many save chances. But in AL-only leagues, he could be a good pickup as he has the potential to be a great setup man. Pitched great in the minors this year. Across three levels (A+, AA, AAA) he put up a 14.24 K/9 and 2.97 BB/9 in 91 IP. He'll be switching back to starting next year, so he definitely deserves a look in keeper leagues. If his K rate is above 9.00 in New York he might be worthy of a pickup in certain mixed leagues. More on that in the coming days.
Recommendation - Should be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - His start against the Royals wasn't nearly as bad as the 6 runs suggest. 5 Ks and 2 BBs in 4.2 IP isn't terrible. I still think he'd be a fine addition in all but the shallowest leagues. Owned in just 34% of ESPN leagues, so there's a decent chance he's still available in yours.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues.

A.J. Burnett | TOR | SP - When healthy, Burnett has been one of the best pitchers in the league, as expected. If he is available in your league, pick him up and hope you can get at least 5 or 6 starts out of him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues while healthy.

Scott Baker | MIN | SP - Having a year very similar to last, except he isn't getting as unlucky this time around. Still getting unlucky, though, which is why he is sitting on the Waiver Wire in just 7% of ESPN leagues. Not the best pickup if you need strikeouts, but his ERA and WHIP will be pretty good. LIPS ERA: 3.80. DIPS WHIP: 1.20.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all but shallow leagues.

Garrett Olson | BAL | SP - Has shown the ability to strike batters out in the minors — 9.04 K/9 in AA, 8.63 K/9 in AAA — so he might be able to put up a K/9 around 7.50 in the majors. Control isn't great — 3.30 BB/9 in AA, 2.71 BB/9 in AAA — so he might struggle to post a K/BB much over 2.00. I don't think it'll be below that number, though, and he can get a decent amount of ground balls, so he has some value. If he pitches well against the Red Sox today, he could find himself a spot in the rotation. Recommendation would improve with a few good starts.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP - I made a mistake with Laffey's numbers last week, which was corrected in the comments section. He was sent down, though, and with the Tribe not needing a fifth starter until the 25th, Laffey might not be back. Cliff Lee and Jeremy Sowers would be the other two candidates for the spot.
Recommendation - Should be dropped in all leagues.

Melky Cabrera | NYY | OF - Playing time is crazy in the Bronx, but Melky should find himself a little. His power is worse than advertised, but he should be able to maintain a batting average above .280. Doesn't have a set spot in the order, but no matter where he plays he should grab a decent number of RBIs and Runs. Has also shown the ability to steal a few bases.
Recommendation - Should be strongly considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

David DeJesus | KC | OF - Owned in just 11% of ESPN leagues, DeJesus is a guy who could help your team in a few categories. Batting lead-off, he's scoring a lot of runs, and his average might be able to get up to .290. He could also grab a few homers and steals. I've traded for him in one league where I have a lot of potential points to gain in the runs category. DeJesus or Melky? Depends on your position in the standings.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Asdrubal Cabrera | CLE | 2B - The Indians called Cabrera up the other day, and with Josh Barfield's struggles this season, Cabrera could steal some time down the stretch. Not much power, but a decent contact hitter. Might be able to post a contact rate around 83-85% and a walk rate around 6-7%. Has some speed, so he could grab some steals, too.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Matt Garza | MIN | SP - 3.56 LIPS ERA so far might be too good for him. His GB% is higher than usual, and his BB/9 is better than it was in AAA this year. Last year's AAA numbers were better, so he might be able to keep it up. Regardless, he remains a risky, though possibly valuable, pickup..
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues, for now.

Huston Street | OAK | RP - Seems like forever that Street has been active and pitching before the ninth. He should be getting the closer's role back soon, probably this coming week. If he's been forgotten in your league, pick him up.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - He's aiming to be activated on September 1, with possibly a week before he gets the closer's role. That would leave three weeks worth of saves for Otsuka. Not great, but not terrible. Can be stashed by save speculators. Should be picked up in all leagues once he's activated.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Analysis of the pitching for my NY Mets

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:57am

It's 113 games into the season and my favorite team, the New York Mets, is sitting atop the National League East—four games up on the Phillies and four and a half up on the Braves. The Mets are second only to the Padres (and Chris Young's ridiculous 1.82 ERA) for the National League lead in ERA and WHIP. Has this been because of skill, though, or luck? I am certainly hoping for the former.

Quick review

If you're a regular reader, you can skip this part. If you're coming here from a Mets blog, welcome. I'll quickly go over some of the metrics used here. LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP are the most important to focus on. If you understand those two, you will understand the rest of this article. The other metrics are there for those of you with high curiosity levels.

LIPS ERA - Full explanation here. Essentially, it strips out all effects that luck and defense have on a pitcher's ERA. It measures his controllable skills and nothing out of his control. The effect the Mets defense has on their pitchers' numbers is talked about below the tables. Uses the same scale as ERA.

DIPS WHIP - Full explanation here. Basically the same thing as LIPS ERA, but for WHIP. Strips out all effects of defense and most effects of luck. Uses the same scale as WHIP.

xGB% - It's been proven that pitchers have very little control over how many line drives they give up. xGB% measures what percentage of ground balls a pitcher would induce with a league average line drive rate. Ground balls are better than fly balls because there is zero chance a ground ball will clear the outfield fence for a home run. League average is usually 42-43%.

LD% - It's been proven that pitchers have very little control over how many line drives they give up. As line drives fall for hits more often than any other type of batted ball, pitchers who give up more than they should are candidates to give up more hits than they should be. League average is usually around 19%.

BABIP - Batting average on balls in play. It has also been proven that pitchers have little control over how many balls put into play turn into hits, and that much of the control they do have can be seen in their peripheral numbers (K/9, BB/9, xGB%). League average is usually around .300.

LOB% - Left on base percentage. Measures the percentage of runners a pitcher (or his bullpen) strands on base at the end of an inning. Pitchers have more control over this than they do LD% or BABIP, but still do not stray too far from the league average on skill alone. Can definitely be compromised by luck. League average is usually around 72%.

HR/FB - Home runs per fly ball. Pitchers don't have complete control over how many home runs they give up, although they can control how many fly balls they allow. These two numbers are connected, and if they don't mesh the pitcher is in for an adjustment. League average is usually around 10%.

That should be all you need to know. LIPS ERA - ERA and DIPS WHIP - WHIP are simple subtraction problems that measures how lucky or unlucky a pitcher is getting with his ERA or WHIP.

Starters

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Perez	Oliver	20	20	125.0	3.31	3.77	1.22	1.26	8.93	3.38	2.64	31.50	83.21	0.265	9.77	17.05	0.46	0.04
Hernandez	Orlando	19	19	118.0	3.05	3.80	1.07	1.23	7.70	3.36	2.30	36.71	81.35	0.225	9.21	11.08	0.75	0.16
Maine	John	22	22	135.0	3.27	3.97	1.16	1.27	7.60	3.27	2.33	35.25	78.76	0.254	7.73	15.23	0.70	0.11
Sosa	Jorge	18	14	86.7	4.26	4.82	1.29	1.42	5.09	3.43	1.48	36.00	71.43	0.265	7.44	19.37	0.56	0.13
Pelfrey	Michael	10	9	48.7	5.92	5.05	1.66	1.62	4.99	4.44	1.13	50.30	67.57	0.331	8.70	23.67	-0.87	-0.04
Glavine	Tom	24	24	144.0	4.31	5.31	1.37	1.47	3.94	3.13	1.26	42.51	74.94	0.274	9.94	20.89	1.00	0.10

A little disappointing looking down the LIPS ERA- ERA column. Everyone has gotten lucky except Mike Pelfrey.

This might have something to do with the Mets defense, though. According to Revised Zone Rating—which is explained here—the Mets have the best defense in the National League. They have the second best infield and the best outfield (and that's with Endy Chavez out the past few months). While some of these guys might be receiving a little luck besides, the drop-off won't be nearly as scary as you would think upon initially looking at the list.

Pelfrey's poor luck looks even worse in this light. He not only got unlucky for a player with an average defense behind him, but he managed to get unlucky for a player with the league's best defense behind him. A 5.05 LIPS ERA is by no means good, but given how the other guys did, an ERA of 4.50 would have been much more likely than one near 6.00.

Isolated from the defense, the Mets pitching is good but unspectacular. The good news is that the potential is there for a great rotation in the coming years. If Oliver Perez can improve his control, he could find himself as a true ace next year.

John Maine looks like he could be a good No. 3 for most teams in the league and should have a spot there with the Mets for years to come. I hope they don't decide he's good enough to be their No. 2, though, unless he can crank up the Ks or bring down the BBs.

I would love to see the Mets get an established ace in the off-season, although I don't see many available. A guy slightly below that level like Dan Haren or Javier Vazquez or Dave Bush would be nice. As much talk as there has been about Dontrelle Willis possibly being traded to the Mets, I would hate this. Omar... please stay... far... far... away.

Jorge Sosa should be traded in the off-season while his value is high. His 4.82 LIPS ERA wouldn't be difficult to replace and the Mets might be able to get something decent for him. I hope Pelfrey will be ready to step into the No. 4 or No. 5 role next year. Tom Glavine, as much as many Mets fans like him, has got to go. He was once a great pitcher, but he just isn't anymore.

And, of course, Pedro Martinez will be coming back shortly. If the injury hasn't taken too much of his skill away, he should be great to have over the next two—I hope three—months.

I have a hard time slotting Martinez into next year's rotation, but if he is healthy he would only help.

1. Pedro Martinez
2. Oliver Perez
3. El Duque
4. John Maine
5. Mike Pelfrey

That looks pretty darn good to me. As insurance for Pedro and El Duque (who will surely need some time on the DL throughout the year), the Mets could start Pelfrey in New Orleans and trade for a guy like Dave Bush. He would also help in two years if Omar decides Pedro and/or El Duque are getting too old. While I'm excited for this year, the future looks even brighter.

Bullpen

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Wagner	Billy	47	0	49.3	1.28	2.81	0.93	1.03	10.58	2.37	4.46	37.50	96.62	0.250	7.69	18.18	1.53	0.10
Mota	Guillermo	30	0	36.7	4.91	3.84	1.28	1.28	7.36	2.21	3.33	42.74	68.29	0.295	11.36	18.64	-1.07	0.00
Heilman	Aaron	54	0	58.0	3.41	3.85	1.02	1.16	6.52	1.55	4.20	40.57	76.63	0.249	9.86	16.76	0.44	0.14
Burgos	Ambiorix	17	0	23.7	3.42	4.18	1.10	1.23	7.23	3.42	2.11	27.27	79.83	0.222	8.11	14.71	0.76	0.13
Feliciano	Pedro	53	0	41.3	2.83	4.36	1.14	1.40	7.84	4.57	1.71	53.10	77.08	0.223	3.03	13.79	1.53	0.26
Smith	Joe	46	0	38.7	3.03	4.43	1.53	1.45	8.38	4.42	1.89	61.95	83.60	0.342	9.09	15.65	1.40	-0.08
Sele	Aaron	25	0	43.7	4.12	5.07	1.69	1.53	5.36	3.71	1.44	43.54	79.25	0.369	7.55	20.92	0.95	-0.16
Schoeneweis	Scott	48	0	40.7	5.31	5.45	1.65	1.65	5.75	5.31	1.08	51.94	72.58	0.306	13.16	17.16	0.14	0.00

Kudos to Omar. I wasn't sure how Guillermo Mota would look coming off his steroid suspension, but he's been much better than expected so far. Without him, I would be much less confident in the Mets 'pen going forward. Interestingly, a lot of Mets fans are probably upset with Minaya for bringing him back as he's the only one getting unlucky with a 4.91 ERA.

Again, thank the Mets great defense for the luck these guys have received. After Billy Wagner, it's really an unspectacular group. Aaron Heilman has been good, but not as dominant as many expected him to become. If the Mets need to use him as a trade chip this off-season, I wouldn't be opposed to it, as long as it brings in someone I like.

Funny that the No. 4 guy on the list (and that's with the lowest K/9 of his big league career) was demoted earlier in the year. If he can crank the strikeouts back up to his career average, and Rick Peterson can help him take a tick off his BB/9 rate, Ambiorix Burgos could become a nice option. He has started throwing off a mound after his shoulder injury earlier, so I hope the Mets will call him back up when he is ready.

Joe Smith could become one of the best relievers in baseball. He's got that great ground ball rate going for him and can strike out some batters. He just needs to work on control. He started out strong in that area but struggled before he was sent down. He's just 23 years old, so I have great hope for Smith in the future.

Aaron Sele just isn't very good. I wasn't a fan of the signing originally, but it was cheap. It's time to cut bait on him, though.

I won't say anything about Scott Schoeneweis; I do enough of that in the next section.

Fernando Cabrera was released by the Indians today. He can really strike guys out, but struggled with his control. His 4.45 LIPS ERA is better than some of the Mets' guys now, and with a little Peterson magic, perhaps Cabrera could turn into a good guy next year. I hope Minaya looks at him.

Guys the Mets let go

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Bannister	Brian	18	18	114.0	3.32	4.59	1.15	1.30	4.58	2.29	2.00	40.05	74.92	0.260	5.23	17.69	1.27	0.15
Trachsel	Steve	21	21	114.3	4.88	6.35	1.60	1.66	3.15	4.64	0.68	39.75	75.00	0.285	9.04	17.40	1.47	0.06
Bell	Heath	56	0	64.3	2.38	3.04	1.03	1.10	9.37	2.66	3.53	55.70	77.88	0.288	5.13	18.40	0.66	0.07
Lindstrom	Matt	49	0	45.3	3.97	3.77	1.41	1.30	8.74	3.18	2.75	42.42	72.35	0.354	3.70	13.33	-0.20	-0.11
Bradford	Chad	56	0	46.0	2.93	4.24	1.33	1.33	4.89	2.15	2.27	64.29	76.56	0.321	0.00	13.84	1.31	0.00
Oliver	Darren	42	0	40.0	4.50	4.37	1.40	1.43	6.75	3.38	2.00	44.96	71.98	0.306	8.00	12.21	-0.13	0.03
Owens	Henry	22	0	23.0	1.96	4.66	1.26	1.43	6.26	3.91	1.60	36.11	96.77	0.232	9.09	18.06	2.70	0.17
Ring	Royce	15	0	15.0	3.60	5.17	1.67	1.73	10.20	8.40	1.21	57.89	80.51	0.270	10.00	10.53	1.57	0.06
Hernandez	Roberto	28	0	26.0	6.23	5.39	1.88	1.73	6.23	5.54	1.13	46.59	67.80	0.356	6.45	16.67	-0.84	-0.15

Most of these guys I'm not upset about, but when Omar traded Heath Bell I was. His peripherals this year aren't much different than the past two years. The only difference is that he isn't getting unlucky this year. His control is the same, he's striking out a few more batters and getting a few more ground balls. That's one of the few trades where I couldn't see what Minaya was thinking.

Chad Bradford is the other guy I was upset with losing. His numbers are worse than last year, but they are still better than what Schoeneweis is doing. Giving Schoeneweis a three-year deal was a terrible mistake. There is plenty of freely available talent that can give you 40 innings and a 5.45 LIPS ERA. If we were going to give that kind of deal to a reliever, Bradford would have been better value, regardless of his handedness.

I credit Minaya for letting go of Steve Trachsel, whose time was clearly up.

Darren Oliver I wasn't as certain about, especially since his replacement as the Mets' second lefty was Schoeneweis. I don't mean to be ragging on Scotty so much, but I really disliked the signing. Oliver, while aging, was putting up solid enough numbers to warrant a spot as the second lefty in the pen. He signed for only $800,000, so it's not like the Mets needed to break the bank to keep him, and we wouldn't have had to give him three years.

The trade of Matt Lindstrom and Henry Owens seemed a little premature. Neither had pitched much in the majors, but they were relatively young and put up good numbers in the minors—especially Owens. Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick are younger, but neither put up numbers as good as Owens' or Lindstrom's. Neither was terrible, so maybe Peterson thought he saw something in these guys he could improve. There's still time for them, so I won't complain about the trade.

Concluding thoughts

My apologies to the non-Mets fans. I just needed somewhere to vent my feelings and break down how I think the Mets are doing. My Mets fan friends don't understand what I'm talking about when I refer to stuff like LIPS ERA, or even why I place so much emphasis on strikeouts, walks and ground balls.

Tomorrow, or maybe even tonight, we'll get back to some normal fantasy baseball discussion.

If any of you Mets fans would like, feel free to relay this piece to your favorite Mets blog. The more informed our fans are about the team, the better.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Wednesday, August 08, 2007

Ryan Braun: The real deal?

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:17pm

Ryan Braun should reach his 300th major league plate appearance tomorrow night. Over those first 300 trips to the plate, Braun has been nothing short of spectacular: .346/.390/.665 with 21 homers. Since he's a rookie, though, we have to wonder: Is he playing over his head? Let's find out.

Minors

When Braun was called up, I was skeptical. This was mostly because I didn't think he was completely ready, and because his numbers in the lower levels of the minors were less than spectacular. He took only 231 at-bats in Double-A (in 2006) and 109 at-bats in Triple-A (to start this year). I thought he was being rushed.

The Triple-A numbers, while great, were almost too small a sample size to take seriously. He had a 91% contact rate, 11% walk rate, 22% line drive rate, 34% HR/FB. His Double-A numbers were worse: 78% contact rate, 8% walk rate, 12% line drive rate, 22% HR/FB. The power there was the only thing to get excited about. As such, I kept my expectations low for Braun, at least for this year. As I'm sure you've realized, he has far exceeded them... to the tune of 9.0 RC/G.

Batting average

Let's dig a little deeper into his seemingly great numbers. Behind Braun's .346 batting average is a 77% contact rate, 7% walk rate and 20% line drive rate. He also has a .385 BABIP. That is probably the most telling number of all.

No hitter>—not Barry Bonds, not Albert Pujols, not Alex Rodriguez>—is capable of sustaining a BABIP that high. It will come down. His 7% walk rate is a little below average and his 20% line drive rate is a little above average, so a BABIP near league average would be more reasonable than the current .385 mark.

Home runs

Let's get back to what type of batting average to expect the rest of the year after we examine his power. He currently sports 21 homers, a 24% HR/FB and a 42% fly ball rate. The first place we'll look to see if that sparkling HR/FB rate is for real is HitTracker.

Of Braun's 21 homers, 10 have traveled farther than 400 true feet. That's a nice chunk, making his 24% HR/FB look pretty legit. A couple of days ago I was a little concerned because his furthest had gone only 419 true feet, and he had several in the 400-408 range. Then he hit a 416-foot one on Saturday and a 438-foot one on Monday, easing my nerves a bit.

Batting average revisited

So let's say he continues to put up a 24% HR/FB and his BABIP adjusts to around .310 (and his contact, walk, and fly ball rates remain constant). That would put his batting average at .294 the rest of the way. It would drop to .287 if his BABIP is only .300. Not bad at all, considering the nice power numbers he'll put up.

Concluding thoughts

The verdict: Braun is very good. Not .350 good, but very good. Continue to rely on Braun for good power and a pretty good batting average, even if it won't stay as high as it has been so far. The players surrounding Braun are quite good, so the RBIs and runs should keep coming as well. I didn't touch on his speed, but it is right in line with what I expected. He should be able to grab five to eight more steals the rest of the year.

I think it shows great maturity and skill for Braun to put up a good line drive rate (20%) and fly ball rate (42%) in his rookie year. Not a lot of hitters are capable of doing both. Quite impressive.

Overall, Braun could be one of the top five third basemen going into 2008, helping in all categories. If you're in a keeper league and are now playing for next year, a trade for Braun might be a smart move.

If you're in a redraft league, I doubt you'd be able to get him at a reasonable price given his inflated batting average. Seeing Braun contributing across the board will lead some owners to believe Braun can continue to hit well over .300. It can't hurt to try to get him, but don't get your hopes up.

If you own him, sit tight. Expect a slight regression but continued good play.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Tuesday, August 07, 2007

Being Prepared

Posted by Patrick DiCaprio at 7:50am

Sadly, the fantasy baseball season is starting to wane, as some owners now turn their attention to football. Heathens! Football drafts are coming up, even though the baseball season still has almost two months left! In many instances, thoughts turn to next year for those not involved in football. If you are thinking about next year in baseball, one thing to think about now is how to spend your offseason, and what needs to do to be done to be prepared.

Right when I first started my blog, I was asked by a co-owner about my preparation for my high stakes league auction. You can find advice on preparation all over the fantasy world in all types of fantasy games; generally the advice is something like "to win you must be prepared," but rarely is there any specific advice, a problem that is endemic to fantasy sports—the lack of specific advice in favor of general rules or cliches. Many fantasy baseball players play other fantasy games or sports, and this advice will help in all types of fantasy contests.

1. Projections. These are a necessity but of relatively limited value against good competitors. Why? Because they are relatively easy to obtain, all good players will have good projections and there are only marginal differences between the best ones. Getting stuck on projections and dollar values, and especially when you use them as a ceiling for bidding or as the key determining factor in drafting, is a trap.

Fantasy baseball is not a game of who can get the most accurate projections; it is about exploiting others' errors of judgment and exploiting the differences in actual and perceived value. This is one of the key core principles of fantasy baseball; it is less true in other fantasy sports games like football, but still valid. Baseball allows this principle to be exploited to the fullest due to the long season, and the variations in value over a daily six month season. Projections are important since they are the basis for the determination of value. Of much more importance is how they are used.

2. Study. Bobby Knight said, probably while throwing a chair, that most people have the will to win, but few have the will to prepare to win. It takes a lot of study to win, especially in tougher or deep leagues. Most fantasy players play in some version of a 10 or 12 team mixed league, myself included. Even in these, where preparation is not too difficult, it is clear that some have no idea what they are doing.

Two years ago, one owner in my mixed league drafted Mark Mulder with his first wraparound pick in the second round (#13 overall). In the reserve rounds this year, I picked up James Shields and Joe Blanton. Virtually no one in the league knew who Shields was. One owner drafted a whole bunch of minor league prospects, even though he could have used these roster spots to stockpile pitchers to maximize his two-start pitchers. Some poor sap (me) even drafted Jake Westbrook.

In tougher leagues it is a different ballgame altogether. My high stakes league is sufficiently deep that in a given week there can be less than 30 hitters total available in the free agent pool. What does it take to be prepared in a league like this? At a minimum I think it takes at least one hour of auction or draft preparation for each roster spot, and probably more. If a name is brought up in a draft or the auction that I don't recognize and I have to look him up in a book to identify him, I am disappointed. One year, it was the very first player to be brought up (Boof Bonser of all people, when he was not yet in A-ball in 2001).

In my high stakes league, for example, there are at least five owners (out of 11) who make their own projections, and one even uses modeling to prepare for the auction! These guys are doing far more than 60 hours of preparation. One even took a week-long vacation to prep full-time the week before the auction.

You can tell who knows what they are doing and who doesn't very easily. At the end of the draft or auction is a guy scrambling for choices? Does he take five minutes in deciding whether to bid $5 on Fernando Cabrera? Does he draft Fox Mulder instead of Mark Mulder???

3. A plan. This should be obvious but most players never plan beyond more than "I will follow my budget and spend 70% on hitting and 30% on pitching, etc." A good plan should include a specific objective for each roster spot. My team usually has at least four or five separate contingency plans, planning for depletion of the different positions. If pitchers go over value and go quickly, we have plan A; if it is outfielders then it is Plan B, and so on. Multiple plans and scenarios allow us to respond to whatever craziness the auction or draft brings.

4. An auction strategy. If you play in auction leagues, what I am referring to here is how you will bring up players and how you will deceive your opponents. The basic "strategy" is that one tries to drain money at positions they don't need, and then wait for bargains. You can read this in virtually every fantasy sports book ever written. But this hoary advice will get you in trouble against players who will take advantage of this.

In my auction this year there was rampant inflation early, and people were not prepared, leaving them with lots of money left over. This meant large inflation late in the auction also. Those who didn't see this coming had a tough time. Why? Because they assumed that there would be bargains late, according to the basic strategy. There were none. Having calculated the inflation beforehand, my co-owner and I anticipated that this would happen and prepared accordingly. We obtained most of our players in the middle of the auction.

Two years ago in an auction, our second year in the league, my team auctioned five of the first nine players brought up. It is often said that "no battle plan survives contact with the enemy", and this is especially true in auctions against good opponents.

Normally you try to wait for bargains, but occasionally the bargains come right out of the box, depending on what the other owners have planned. We jumped in early and adjusted our plan because other owners let it happen, choosing instead to wait on their money. That is not to say they were wrong for doing so of course, it is just a matter of strategy and planning. It is a fine strategy if you have lots of money in a keeper league, or if you are starting from scratch. But if you have a middling amount of money a better plan is needed.

The key is flexibility. You must adapt to what is happening in front of you. And you must be tricky. One strategy, that we picked up from John Benson, is to have a deceit sheet that you will make visible to those who would try to look at your cheat sheets. This can be any title you wish, from "Breakout Candidates" to something completely off the wall like "Ch per AB integer matrix." It should contain the names of a few players you don't want. Add to it players you have auctioned and leave it in a place where others will glance at it. Then bring up the guys you don't want, but bid on all of them.

If you are getting ready for fantasy football, feel free to adapt this advice. But don't ignore your baseball team; the season is far from over!

Patrick is a member of SABR's Statistical Analysis and Science of Baseball Committees and writes about fantasy baseball at The Fantasy Baseball Generals blog. He has achieved the dream of all of his MIT classmates. No, not making millions in the tech markets, but writing about baseball for free. Feel free to send along all insults and comments here.

Monday, August 06, 2007

LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP leaders

Posted by Derek Carty at 11:01pm

As promised, here are the best and worst pitchers of 2007, through Sunday, based on LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP. The criteria for each list is 12 starts.

Top 30 - LIPS ERA

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Bedard	Erik	24	24	154.3	3.09	3.09	1.10	1.11	11.20	2.80	4.00	45.21	82.09	0.288	13.87	16.27
Santana	Johan	23	23	154.0	2.98	3.27	1.03	1.08	9.58	2.16	4.43	33.58	86.34	0.257	12.44	16.42
Hamels	Cole	23	23	153.7	3.57	3.30	1.15	1.12	8.67	2.05	4.23	40.05	81.16	0.288	13.71	17.50
Beckett	Josh	21	21	138.7	3.31	3.30	1.13	1.14	8.57	1.88	4.55	45.64	73.77	0.301	6.08	14.36
Smoltz	John	21	21	133.3	3.04	3.41	1.25	1.18	8.24	2.03	4.07	45.80	80.60	0.321	8.15	19.41
Hernandez	Felix	19	19	118.0	3.89	3.41	1.38	1.25	8.54	2.59	3.29	58.89	77.50	0.348	17.11	16.19
Peavy	Jake	22	22	145.0	2.30	3.42	1.07	1.13	9.56	2.54	3.76	43.97	79.79	0.297	2.86	16.49
Bonderman	Jeremy	21	21	136.0	4.50	3.52	1.28	1.22	8.01	1.99	4.03	46.63	70.96	0.318	11.72	16.67
Sabathia	C.C.	24	24	167.0	3.56	3.53	1.20	1.10	7.98	1.24	6.43	42.71	76.71	0.331	9.14	18.86
Young	Chris	20	20	118.7	1.82	3.63	0.99	1.17	8.65	2.96	2.92	30.29	84.06	0.242	2.47	14.92
Burnett	A.J.	15	15	94.0	4.31	3.63	1.27	1.29	10.15	3.83	2.65	49.59	77.57	0.276	18.75	14.98
Webb	Brandon	24	24	166.7	2.92	3.64	1.24	1.28	7.83	2.97	2.64	59.33	79.03	0.300	8.91	18.05
Shields	James	23	23	157.7	4.45	3.64	1.15	1.14	7.65	1.66	4.62	41.24	71.79	0.284	12.44	14.97
Lincecum	Tim	16	16	98.3	3.75	3.65	1.19	1.28	9.61	4.12	2.33	42.97	72.80	0.264	9.09	14.40
Lilly	Ted	23	23	145.3	3.53	3.69	1.11	1.17	7.37	2.23	3.31	33.49	77.25	0.268	8.96	17.13
Perez	Oliver	19	19	120.0	3.00	3.71	1.18	1.26	8.93	3.52	2.53	32.21	84.80	0.255	9.32	17.17
Vazquez	Javier	22	22	150.7	3.64	3.73	1.09	1.15	8.24	2.15	3.83	37.12	76.26	0.271	10.42	15.49
Sheets	Ben	19	19	119.3	3.39	3.74	1.16	1.21	6.79	1.89	3.60	36.76	79.66	0.274	9.15	18.04
Harang	Aaron	23	23	152.3	3.54	3.78	1.19	1.21	8.15	2.36	3.45	39.50	75.24	0.296	7.07	18.04
Baker	Scott	14	14	87.3	4.43	3.79	1.18	1.18	6.49	1.75	3.71	34.46	67.45	0.294	7.56	21.25
Hendrickson	Mark	26	13	97.0	4.55	3.79	1.32	1.26	6.96	2.23	3.13	45.33	69.57	0.323	9.80	20.63
Rodriguez	Wandy	21	21	124.0	4.72	3.79	1.30	1.27	7.77	2.61	2.97	41.87	70.13	0.304	10.88	17.59
Marcum	Shaun	29	16	114.0	3.63	3.80	1.12	1.19	7.18	2.45	2.94	38.89	82.52	0.246	14.39	16.12
Haren	Dan	24	24	161.0	2.46	3.80	1.08	1.22	7.10	2.40	2.95	41.60	83.02	0.257	6.19	15.35
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	23	23	151.0	3.70	3.81	1.26	1.24	9.06	3.10	2.92	37.89	78.56	0.303	9.55	19.00
Kazmir	Scott	24	24	145.0	3.72	3.82	1.48	1.37	9.50	4.28	2.22	42.21	78.64	0.344	7.50	14.99
Capuano	Chris	20	20	109.3	4.86	3.85	1.46	1.38	7.90	3.54	2.23	42.94	71.33	0.325	9.68	18.95
Hernandez	Orlando	18	18	111.0	3.00	3.85	1.08	1.24	7.62	3.41	2.24	36.45	83.17	0.225	9.66	11.04
Oswalt	Roy	25	24	159.7	3.55	3.88	1.34	1.32	6.71	2.71	2.48	49.90	77.80	0.308	8.07	15.31
Sonnanstine	Andrew	12	12	75.0	6.12	3.92	1.37	1.25	6.24	1.80	3.47	33.88	61.22	0.328	10.62	20.00

Bottom 30 - LIPS ERA

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Trachsel	Steve	20	20	108.7	4.97	6.32	1.58	1.66	3.23	4.64	0.70	38.99	73.83	0.283	8.81	17.66
Sowers	Jeremy	12	12	62.3	6.93	5.99	1.57	1.57	2.74	2.74	1.00	38.66	61.36	0.305	9.62	15.77
Hernandez	Livan	23	23	143.3	4.83	5.72	1.61	1.56	4.46	3.89	1.15	37.76	77.38	0.313	10.84	20.83
Maroth	Mike	13	13	78.3	5.06	5.60	1.66	1.58	3.22	3.79	0.85	43.01	79.46	0.314	14.42	19.86
Thompson	Brad	34	13	103.7	5.21	5.51	1.60	1.53	3.65	2.95	1.24	47.61	77.49	0.313	14.96	16.84
Ramirez	Horacio	12	12	62.0	6.68	5.46	1.84	1.65	3.63	3.48	1.04	46.84	65.91	0.359	9.09	21.85
Kennedy	Joe	27	16	101.0	4.37	5.40	1.55	1.58	3.74	4.28	0.88	47.23	75.64	0.300	7.50	14.65
Glavine	Tom	24	24	144.0	4.31	5.31	1.37	1.47	3.94	3.13	1.26	42.51	74.94	0.274	9.94	20.89
Bacsik	Mike	14	14	81.7	4.19	5.30	1.33	1.43	2.98	2.09	1.42	39.73	80.09	0.267	11.48	18.67
McCarthy	Brandon	19	18	89.3	5.04	5.24	1.51	1.54	5.14	4.13	1.24	34.45	69.40	0.299	5.59	15.84
Perez	Odalis	23	23	124.3	5.79	5.23	1.64	1.53	4.27	3.18	1.34	44.74	67.44	0.339	8.18	19.21
Duke	Zach	17	17	93.3	5.79	5.22	1.75	1.48	3.18	2.12	1.50	51.42	69.74	0.381	10.00	20.83
Lowry	Noah	22	22	135.7	3.32	5.14	1.45	1.53	5.04	4.78	1.06	45.67	78.51	0.288	4.11	17.93
Tejeda	Robinson	19	19	95.3	6.61	5.07	1.78	1.67	6.51	5.66	1.15	32.80	69.65	0.317	10.69	14.11
de la Rosa	Jorge	23	22	125.3	5.46	5.06	1.60	1.52	5.60	3.52	1.59	41.30	72.15	0.325	11.31	19.59
Eaton	Adam	23	23	130.0	6.09	5.06	1.59	1.49	5.61	3.95	1.42	38.33	67.74	0.321	11.36	19.04
Loe	Kameron	24	19	116.3	5.80	5.03	1.58	1.56	4.80	3.48	1.38	53.79	65.80	0.322	10.91	17.96
Suppan	Jeff	24	24	145.0	4.84	5.02	1.52	1.48	4.53	3.17	1.43	45.89	71.16	0.326	7.06	19.92
Lee	Cliff	16	16	91.7	6.38	4.98	1.53	1.48	5.89	3.44	1.71	32.47	65.81	0.302	10.32	15.19
Garland	Jon	22	22	141.0	4.60	4.96	1.38	1.42	3.96	2.81	1.41	40.99	69.02	0.292	6.59	22.56
DiNardo	Lenny	24	12	87.3	3.19	4.95	1.27	1.40	4.02	3.09	1.30	56.23	78.60	0.272	8.57	16.32
Contreras	Jose	21	21	121.3	6.60	4.93	1.65	1.52	5.19	3.41	1.52	44.10	64.21	0.335	9.80	18.91
Germano	Justin	16	16	92.0	4.30	4.92	1.15	1.29	4.99	2.25	2.22	44.03	69.77	0.254	9.73	14.48
Tavarez	Julian	22	19	106.0	5.09	4.89	1.53	1.49	5.35	3.23	1.66	52.32	70.77	0.317	10.09	15.09
Durbin	Chad	26	14	99.0	4.36	4.88	1.37	1.44	5.00	3.45	1.45	43.65	77.87	0.269	11.81	13.37
Chico	Matthew	23	23	123.0	4.76	4.88	1.56	1.54	4.90	3.95	1.24	32.62	78.11	0.295	10.05	20.56
Simontacchi	Jason	13	13	70.7	6.37	4.87	1.67	1.49	5.35	2.93	1.83	34.94	69.07	0.352	11.82	21.26
Batista	Miguel	23	22	133.7	4.17	4.87	1.50	1.48	5.99	3.77	1.59	42.79	77.37	0.309	8.14	15.58
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.86	1.81	1.62	5.24	3.90	1.34	47.64	67.81	0.351	12.90	22.82
Fogg	Josh	19	18	105.3	4.87	4.86	1.49	1.45	5.21	3.08	1.69	37.78	74.10	0.309	9.33	20.71

Top 30 - DIPS WHIP

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Santana	Johan	23	23	154.0	2.98	3.27	1.03	1.08	9.58	2.16	4.43	33.58	86.34	0.257	12.44	16.42
Sabathia	C.C.	24	24	167.0	3.56	3.53	1.20	1.10	7.98	1.24	6.43	42.71	76.71	0.331	9.14	18.86
Bedard	Erik	24	24	154.3	3.09	3.09	1.10	1.11	11.20	2.80	4.00	45.21	82.09	0.288	13.87	16.27
Hamels	Cole	23	23	153.7	3.57	3.30	1.15	1.12	8.67	2.05	4.23	40.05	81.16	0.288	13.71	17.50
Peavy	Jake	22	22	145.0	2.30	3.42	1.07	1.13	9.56	2.54	3.76	43.97	79.79	0.297	2.86	16.49
Shields	James	23	23	157.7	4.45	3.64	1.15	1.14	7.65	1.66	4.62	41.24	71.79	0.284	12.44	14.97
Beckett	Josh	21	21	138.7	3.31	3.30	1.13	1.14	8.57	1.88	4.55	45.64	73.77	0.301	6.08	14.36
Vazquez	Javier	22	22	150.7	3.64	3.73	1.09	1.15	8.24	2.15	3.83	37.12	76.26	0.271	10.42	15.49
Young	Chris	20	20	118.7	1.82	3.63	0.99	1.17	8.65	2.96	2.92	30.29	84.06	0.242	2.47	14.92
Lilly	Ted	23	23	145.3	3.53	3.69	1.11	1.17	7.37	2.23	3.31	33.49	77.25	0.268	8.96	17.13
Smoltz	John	21	21	133.3	3.04	3.41	1.25	1.18	8.24	2.03	4.07	45.80	80.60	0.321	8.15	19.41
Baker	Scott	14	14	87.3	4.43	3.79	1.18	1.18	6.49	1.75	3.71	34.46	67.45	0.294	7.56	21.25
Marcum	Shaun	29	16	114.0	3.63	3.80	1.12	1.19	7.18	2.45	2.94	38.89	82.52	0.246	14.39	16.12
Harang	Aaron	23	23	152.3	3.54	3.78	1.19	1.21	8.15	2.36	3.45	39.50	75.24	0.296	7.07	18.04
Sheets	Ben	19	19	119.3	3.39	3.74	1.16	1.21	6.79	1.89	3.60	36.76	79.66	0.274	9.15	18.04
Guthrie	Jeremy	24	18	130.0	2.98	4.14	1.08	1.22	6.30	2.35	2.68	44.76	81.19	0.253	10.07	17.74
Bonderman	Jeremy	21	21	136.0	4.50	3.52	1.28	1.22	8.01	1.99	4.03	46.63	70.96	0.318	11.72	16.67
Haren	Dan	24	24	161.0	2.46	3.80	1.08	1.22	7.10	2.40	2.95	41.60	83.02	0.257	6.19	15.35
Buehrle	Mark	22	22	152.3	3.07	4.41	1.18	1.23	5.20	1.71	3.03	43.45	81.57	0.286	8.89	17.85
Carlyle	Buddy	13	12	70.7	4.20	4.48	1.20	1.23	5.86	2.04	2.88	33.02	73.97	0.291	10.00	20.44
Hernandez	Orlando	18	18	111.0	3.00	3.85	1.08	1.24	7.62	3.41	2.24	36.45	83.17	0.225	9.66	11.04
Blanton	Joseph	24	24	167.3	3.71	4.02	1.18	1.24	5.27	1.51	3.50	46.64	70.81	0.293	5.95	19.68
Matsuzaka	Daisuke	23	23	151.0	3.70	3.81	1.26	1.24	9.06	3.10	2.92	37.89	78.56	0.303	9.55	19.00
Hudson	Tim	24	24	158.7	2.95	4.02	1.13	1.25	5.56	2.10	2.65	60.69	73.99	0.286	4.00	16.03
Schilling	Curt	15	15	94.3	4.20	4.06	1.36	1.25	6.77	1.81	3.74	39.22	75.97	0.329	9.30	17.68
Hill	Richard	21	21	127.7	3.67	3.95	1.21	1.25	8.32	3.10	2.68	35.69	82.96	0.269	13.64	20.88
Escobar	Kelvim	21	21	145.0	2.79	3.98	1.19	1.25	6.89	2.79	2.47	42.65	78.56	0.289	4.22	16.05
Hernandez	Felix	19	19	118.0	3.89	3.41	1.38	1.25	8.54	2.59	3.29	58.89	77.50	0.348	17.11	16.19
Sonnanstine	Andrew	12	12	75.0	6.12	3.92	1.37	1.25	6.24	1.80	3.47	33.88	61.22	0.328	10.62	20.00
Perez	Oliver	19	19	120.0	3.00	3.71	1.18	1.26	8.93	3.52	2.53	32.21	84.80	0.255	9.32	17.17

Bottom 30 - DIPS WHIP

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%
Tejeda	Robinson	19	19	95.3	6.61	5.07	1.78	1.67	6.51	5.66	1.15	32.80	69.65	0.317	10.69	14.11
Trachsel	Steve	20	20	108.7	4.97	6.32	1.58	1.66	3.23	4.64	0.70	38.99	73.83	0.283	8.81	17.66
Ramirez	Horacio	12	12	62.0	6.68	5.46	1.84	1.65	3.63	3.48	1.04	46.84	65.91	0.359	9.09	21.85
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.86	1.81	1.62	5.24	3.90	1.34	47.64	67.81	0.351	12.90	22.82
Kim	Byung-Hyun	14	13	75.7	4.16	4.85	1.56	1.61	8.09	6.30	1.28	42.06	80.25	0.268	10.47	15.45
Jackson	Edwin	21	20	96.0	6.56	4.73	1.80	1.60	7.69	4.88	1.58	43.45	66.58	0.363	10.34	18.69
Kennedy	Joe	27	16	101.0	4.37	5.40	1.55	1.58	3.74	4.28	0.88	47.23	75.64	0.300	7.50	14.65
Maroth	Mike	13	13	78.3	5.06	5.60	1.66	1.58	3.22	3.79	0.85	43.01	79.46	0.314	14.42	19.86
Sowers	Jeremy	12	12	62.3	6.93	5.99	1.57	1.57	2.74	2.74	1.00	38.66	61.36	0.305	9.62	15.77
Hernandez	Livan	23	23	143.3	4.83	5.72	1.61	1.56	4.46	3.89	1.15	37.76	77.38	0.313	10.84	20.83
Davies	Kyle	17	17	86.0	5.76	4.64	1.58	1.56	6.17	4.60	1.34	40.94	68.48	0.300	11.11	19.72
Loe	Kameron	24	19	116.3	5.80	5.03	1.58	1.56	4.80	3.48	1.38	53.79	65.80	0.322	10.91	17.96
Wells	Kip	24	20	119.3	5.58	4.67	1.60	1.55	6.64	4.53	1.47	49.48	68.08	0.322	9.92	18.02
Gaudin	Chad	23	23	137.0	3.88	4.77	1.47	1.54	5.78	4.53	1.28	51.72	76.44	0.289	7.87	18.37
Davis	Doug	23	23	139.3	3.88	4.64	1.58	1.54	6.33	4.72	1.34	47.60	79.79	0.314	9.09	19.33
Chico	Matthew	23	23	123.0	4.76	4.88	1.56	1.54	4.90	3.95	1.24	32.62	78.11	0.295	10.05	20.56
McCarthy	Brandon	19	18	89.3	5.04	5.24	1.51	1.54	5.14	4.13	1.24	34.45	69.40	0.299	5.59	15.84
Millwood	Kevin	20	20	105.3	5.98	4.64	1.71	1.54	6.66	3.76	1.77	46.11	69.49	0.354	10.66	20.39
Perez	Odalis	23	23	124.3	5.79	5.23	1.64	1.53	4.27	3.18	1.34	44.74	67.44	0.339	8.18	19.21
Thompson	Brad	34	13	103.7	5.21	5.51	1.60	1.53	3.65	2.95	1.24	47.61	77.49	0.313	14.96	16.84
Willis	Dontrelle	24	24	141.0	4.91	4.69	1.62	1.53	6.06	3.89	1.56	49.79	74.32	0.332	11.19	20.37
Lowry	Noah	22	22	135.7	3.32	5.14	1.45	1.53	5.04	4.78	1.06	45.67	78.51	0.288	4.11	17.93
de la Rosa	Jorge	23	22	125.3	5.46	5.06	1.60	1.52	5.60	3.52	1.59	41.30	72.15	0.325	11.31	19.59
Contreras	Jose	21	21	121.3	6.60	4.93	1.65	1.52	5.19	3.41	1.52	44.10	64.21	0.335	9.80	18.91
Burres	Brian	21	13	82.0	4.61	4.36	1.57	1.51	7.57	5.05	1.50	40.41	74.71	0.314	8.33	20.97
Olsen	Scott	24	24	132.7	5.43	4.45	1.66	1.51	7.06	4.34	1.63	38.28	71.00	0.350	9.52	22.40
Zito	Barry	23	22	127.7	5.08	4.74	1.47	1.50	6.06	4.23	1.43	39.66	70.00	0.289	9.20	20.05
Tavarez	Julian	22	19	106.0	5.09	4.89	1.53	1.49	5.35	3.23	1.66	52.32	70.77	0.317	10.09	15.09
Simontacchi	Jason	13	13	70.7	6.37	4.87	1.67	1.49	5.35	2.93	1.83	34.94	69.07	0.352	11.82	21.26
Robertson	Nathan	19	19	107.0	5.05	4.85	1.59	1.49	5.55	3.20	1.74	45.11	72.82	0.338	9.85	17.60

Concluding thoughts

A few of my favorite guys have dropped a little. Andrew Sonnanstine has had 3 sub-par starts in a row. He's someone to watch carefully for now. He's still #30 in LIPS ERA, and I still have faith in him, so don't panic yet. Wandy Rodriguez has had 2 poor starts in his last 4, but he was yanked from one after 3.1 innings. Don't worry too much about him either. I'm still hanging tight.

If you are worrying, the good news is that a few more names have emerged as sleepers. Scott Baker is putting up nearly identical numbers to his 2006 season, but this year he's not getting as unlucky as he did last year (still unlucky, though). He would make a solid pickup in all but shallow leagues. Shaun Marcum is another guy who would make a nice pickup. He has always had amazing control in the minors, and in AAA last year put up a 10.25 K/9 in 52.2 innings.

Kelvim Escobar makes a good sell high target. The guy has consistently pitched well all year, or seems to have, but his K/9 has been trailing off a bit lately and his 3.98 LIPS ERA doesn't match his 2.79 ERA.

Erik Bedard continues to pitch amazingly. If you have a guy like Chris Young or John Smoltz or Josh Beckett and can get Bedard, you need to do it. This may prove difficult, now, though, as his LIPS ERA is now in line with his ERA.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Trading strategy: Partners and standings

Posted by Derek Carty at 3:08pm

When most of us make a trade, we normally look to get maximum value returned to our own teams. This is our first instinct and is certainly a good strategy, especially in the early portions of the season. At this point in the year, however, there might be a superior way to deal.

The strategy

I spoke last time about how it can be a solid move to receive less than 100% value in a trade, as long as it helps your team improve in a certain category. This time, I'll again say that it is okay to receive less than 100% value on your players but for a different reason. Nearly as important as making trades that add points to your total are trades that will subtract points from your opponent's total. If you can take a chunk out of your opponent's points, it will indirectly benefit you (assuming you can do it in the right situations), making a trade for less than 100% value acceptable.

Example scenario

Your team sits in second place overall. You are in a twelve team league and currently have 6 points in saves. No team is within 12 saves of you — in front or behind. The first place team overall is currently first in saves, but is closely being trailed by the team that is sixth overall.

Being the savvy fantasy player that you are, you offer the sixth place team your top closer for a player of slightly less value than you would normally expect. Being a decent player himself, he realizes that he is getting good value and jumps on the deal. Over the next two months, the closer you traded helps him to take first in saves. In the process, your primary opponent loses a point off his total.

Of course, that example only costs your opponent one point, because we are dealing with closers. If you decide to trade a guy who helps in several categories, the results will be different. If you trade Adam Dunn — who helps in HR, RBI, and R — for Juan Pierre — who will provide a better batting average and more steals — (not that I would normally advocate such a trade) you might be able to hurt your opponent more than if you had traded a closer.

The guy who receives Dunn could jump over your first place opponent in HR, RBI, and R, which would then set your opponent back three points. Make a couple trades like this, and you could find yourself sitting in first very shortly. Just make sure that the team you trade with is not a big threat to make a quick climb to the top.

The perfect scenario

Of course, if all the pieces fall into place, you can accomplish everything in one trade. You gain 100% on your trade, you fill a hole or two, improve in a couple of categories, and trade a quality player to a team that will hurt your primary competitor and won't hurt you. This won't happen very often, but when it does, you should be very happy.

Even if everything doesn't fall perfectly into place, there are ways to use this method and still improve your own team. When trading away a player that will hurt your opponent, make sure you target a player that can also improve your own team in the standings. I'm sure you won't be giving players away, but even if you don't get 100% value, make sure to a target a player that can help your own team in the standings too.

Who this applies to

This really only applies to those that are towards the top of their league's standings. If you are in the middle of the pack, it is more important to improve your own team, either via superior value or through acquiring players that will catapult you several points in certain categories. Knocking a few points off of the total of one of the teams at the top really won't help you much. It will just allow another team at the top to take the lead. If you have a lot of ground to make up, it is much more important to help your own team than it is to hurt another team.

Concluding thoughts

The essential idea behind all of this is that a point lost by your opponent is just as good as one gained by you. Of course, you have many opponents in fantasy baseball, so you need to be careful that the team you help improve doesn't stand to become your next primary opponent.

Because of this, it is better to gain points yourself than it is for one of your opponents to lose points. There is less risk involved. Always pursue the original strategy first, complementing it with the new strategy where applicable. In situations where you are unable to successfully use the original strategy (lack of available options, stubborn traders, whatever), then it is appropriate to use the new strategy.

Analyze your own situation carefully, explore all available options, and you should be fine.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Sunday, August 05, 2007

Luck leaders: LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP

Posted by Derek Carty at 9:49pm

I've been receiving lots of emails lately from people looking for updated LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP numbers, so I thought this might be a good time to do an updated look at our pitching "Luck leaders." I think you're all familiar with LIPS ERA and DIPS ERA by now, but if not, you can click and see the original posts about them.

LIPS ERA

Luckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA greater than 0.90

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Young	Chris	20	20	118.7	1.82	3.63	0.99	1.17	8.65	2.96	2.92	30.29	84.06	0.242	2.47	14.92	1.81	0.18
DiNardo	Lenny	24	12	87.3	3.19	4.96	1.27	1.40	4.02	3.09	1.30	56.23	78.60	0.272	8.57	16.32	1.77	0.13
Lowry	Noah	21	21	132.7	3.32	5.06	1.45	1.51	5.09	4.68	1.09	45.32	78.36	0.290	4.20	18.12	1.74	0.06
Penny	Brad	22	22	142.0	2.60	4.25	1.22	1.30	6.27	2.98	2.11	51.20	79.10	0.292	3.28	19.30	1.65	0.08
Haren	Dan	23	23	155.0	2.44	3.82	1.06	1.21	7.03	2.32	3.02	41.83	83.22	0.252	6.45	15.30	1.38	0.15
Trachsel	Steve	20	20	108.7	4.97	6.33	1.58	1.66	3.23	4.64	0.70	38.99	73.83	0.283	8.81	17.66	1.36	0.08
Buehrle	Mark	22	22	152.3	3.07	4.42	1.18	1.23	5.20	1.71	3.03	43.45	81.57	0.286	8.89	17.85	1.35	0.05
Escobar	Kelvim	21	21	145.0	2.79	4.00	1.19	1.26	6.89	2.79	2.47	42.89	78.56	0.289	4.24	16.05	1.21	0.07
Guthrie	Jeremy	24	18	130.0	2.98	4.15	1.08	1.22	6.30	2.35	2.68	44.76	81.19	0.253	10.07	17.74	1.17	0.14
Peavy	Jake	22	22	145.0	2.30	3.42	1.07	1.13	9.56	2.54	3.76	43.97	79.79	0.297	2.86	16.49	1.12	0.06
Bacsik	Mike	14	14	81.7	4.19	5.31	1.33	1.43	2.98	2.09	1.42	39.73	80.09	0.267	11.48	18.67	1.12	0.10
Lackey	John	22	22	146.7	3.07	4.17	1.22	1.28	7.24	2.52	2.88	43.92	81.38	0.289	8.07	19.51	1.10	0.06
Wang	Chien - Ming	20	20	136.7	3.49	4.58	1.24	1.33	4.21	2.24	1.88	56.57	73.23	0.291	5.45	16.78	1.09	0.09
Hudson	Tim	24	24	158.7	2.95	4.02	1.13	1.25	5.56	2.10	2.65	60.69	73.99	0.286	4.00	16.03	1.07	0.12
Kennedy	Joe	27	16	101.0	4.37	5.42	1.55	1.58	3.74	4.28	0.88	47.23	75.64	0.300	7.50	14.65	1.05	0.03
Bannister	Brian	17	17	107.0	3.45	4.47	1.16	1.31	4.79	2.36	2.04	39.66	74.04	0.260	5.48	17.19	1.02	0.15
James	Chuck	22	22	121.7	3.70	4.69	1.43	1.42	6.51	3.70	1.76	31.38	83.44	0.293	9.73	18.72	0.99	-0.01
Carmona	Fausto	21	21	137.7	3.27	4.23	1.26	1.31	5.36	2.42	2.22	60.64	78.98	0.292	11.96	14.29	0.96	0.05
Gorzelanny	Tom	21	21	134.3	3.55	4.47	1.29	1.35	5.83	2.75	2.12	42.56	77.02	0.292	6.63	17.74	0.92	0.06
Gaudin	Chad	23	23	137.0	3.88	4.78	1.47	1.54	5.78	4.53	1.28	51.72	76.44	0.289	7.87	18.37	0.90	0.07
Glavine	Tom	23	23	137.7	4.38	5.28	1.38	1.47	4.05	3.20	1.27	42.67	75.09	0.275	10.53	21.06	0.90	0.09

Unluckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA less than -0.90

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Colon	Bartolo	16	16	85.7	6.72	4.36	1.67	1.42	7.04	2.84	2.48	39.31	66.14	0.369	12.40	18.31	-2.36	-0.25
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.87	1.81	1.62	5.24	3.90	1.34	47.64	67.81	0.351	12.90	22.82	-1.82	-0.19
Jackson	Edwin	21	20	96.0	6.56	4.74	1.80	1.60	7.69	4.88	1.58	43.45	66.58	0.363	10.34	18.69	-1.82	-0.20
Santana	Ervin	19	19	110.0	6.22	4.51	1.62	1.45	7.12	3.44	2.07	35.08	71.34	0.333	14.11	19.62	-1.71	-0.17
Contreras	Jose	21	21	121.3	6.60	4.95	1.65	1.52	5.19	3.41	1.52	44.10	64.21	0.335	9.80	18.91	-1.65	-0.13
Jennings	Jason	16	15	84.0	6.11	4.49	1.57	1.45	6.21	3.21	1.93	36.52	66.20	0.336	10.83	21.38	-1.62	-0.12
Reyes	Anthony	14	14	75.7	6.07	4.54	1.35	1.39	6.42	3.33	1.93	36.29	59.32	0.289	8.41	17.01	-1.53	0.04
Tejeda	Rob.	19	19	95.3	6.61	5.08	1.78	1.67	6.51	5.66	1.15	32.80	69.65	0.317	10.69	14.11	-1.53	-0.11
Weaver	Jeff	16	16	84.0	6.32	4.81	1.61	1.48	4.61	2.57	1.79	35.92	63.71	0.340	7.14	17.57	-1.51	-0.13
Simontacchi	Jason	13	13	70.7	6.37	4.87	1.67	1.49	5.35	2.93	1.83	34.94	69.07	0.352	11.82	21.26	-1.50	-0.18
Lee	Cliff	16	16	91.7	6.38	4.99	1.53	1.48	5.89	3.44	1.71	32.47	65.81	0.302	10.32	15.19	-1.39	-0.05
Tomko	Brett	30	12	89.0	5.56	4.21	1.57	1.45	7.08	3.44	2.06	40.75	68.72	0.338	9.73	21.00	-1.35	-0.12
Millwood	Kevin	20	20	105.3	5.98	4.65	1.71	1.54	6.66	3.76	1.77	46.11	69.49	0.354	10.66	20.39	-1.33	-0.17
Belisle	Matt	22	22	130.0	5.26	3.94	1.47	1.33	6.02	2.08	2.90	44.55	69.91	0.343	11.76	21.56	-1.32	-0.14
Ramirez	Horacio	12	12	62.0	6.68	5.47	1.84	1.65	3.63	3.48	1.04	46.84	65.91	0.359	9.09	21.85	-1.21	-0.19
Baker	Scott	13	13	79.3	4.88	3.77	1.22	1.18	6.69	1.70	3.93	36.29	64.81	0.302	8.57	22.13	-1.11	-0.04
Davies	Kyle	17	17	86.0	5.76	4.65	1.58	1.56	6.17	4.60	1.34	40.94	68.48	0.300	11.11	19.72	-1.11	-0.02
Towers	Josh	20	14	94.0	5.17	4.14	1.31	1.26	6.61	1.53	4.31	44.63	71.71	0.307	16.36	18.79	-1.03	-0.05
Bush	David	23	21	130.7	5.03	4.00	1.36	1.27	6.82	2.20	3.09	45.26	70.09	0.321	12.33	18.16	-1.03	-0.09
Capuano	Chris	20	20	109.3	4.86	3.85	1.46	1.38	7.90	3.54	2.23	42.94	71.33	0.325	9.68	18.95	-1.01	-0.08
Olsen	Scott	23	23	125.3	5.53	4.54	1.70	1.53	6.89	4.52	1.52	38.35	71.50	0.351	9.94	21.98	-0.99	-0.17
Bonderman	Jeremy	21	21	136.0	4.50	3.53	1.28	1.22	8.01	1.99	4.03	46.63	70.96	0.318	11.72	16.67	-0.97	-0.06
Williams	Woody	23	23	138.0	5.41	4.45	1.43	1.37	4.50	2.35	1.92	38.16	71.76	0.296	12.25	17.81	-0.96	-0.06
Wells	Kip	24	20	119.3	5.58	4.65	1.60	1.55	6.64	4.53	1.47	49.48	68.08	0.322	9.92	18.02	-0.93	-0.05
Rodriguez	Wandy	21	21	124.0	4.72	3.80	1.30	1.27	7.77	2.61	2.97	41.87	70.13	0.304	10.88	17.59	-0.92	-0.03
Sowers	Jeremy	12	12	62.3	6.93	6.01	1.57	1.57	2.74	2.74	1.00	38.66	61.36	0.305	9.62	15.77	-0.92	0.00

DIPS WHIP

Luckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a DIPS WHIP - WHIP greater than 0.08

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Young	Chris	20	20	118.7	1.82	3.63	0.99	1.17	8.65	2.96	2.92	30.29	84.06	0.242	2.47	14.92	1.81	0.18
Hernandez	Orlando	18	18	111.0	3.00	3.86	1.08	1.24	7.62	3.41	2.24	36.45	83.17	0.225	9.66	11.04	0.86	0.16
Bannister	Brian	17	17	107.0	3.45	4.47	1.16	1.31	4.79	2.36	2.04	39.66	74.04	0.260	5.48	17.19	1.02	0.15
Haren	Dan	23	23	155.0	2.44	3.82	1.06	1.21	7.03	2.32	3.02	41.83	83.22	0.252	6.45	15.30	1.38	0.15
Guthrie	Jeremy	24	18	130.0	2.98	4.15	1.08	1.22	6.30	2.35	2.68	44.76	81.19	0.253	10.07	17.74	1.17	0.14
Marquis	Jason	22	22	128.0	4.22	4.78	1.32	1.46	5.06	3.66	1.38	46.36	76.37	0.253	11.64	15.96	0.56	0.14
Germano	Justin	15	15	86.3	4.38	4.97	1.18	1.31	5.00	2.19	2.29	43.84	70.64	0.262	10.38	15.05	0.59	0.13
DiNardo	Lenny	24	12	87.3	3.19	4.96	1.27	1.40	4.02	3.09	1.30	56.23	78.60	0.272	8.57	16.32	1.77	0.13
Hudson	Tim	24	24	158.7	2.95	4.02	1.13	1.25	5.56	2.10	2.65	60.69	73.99	0.286	4.00	16.03	1.07	0.12
Bergmann	Jason	14	14	75.0	4.56	4.27	1.23	1.35	6.60	3.48	1.90	32.59	70.50	0.243	9.91	16.16	-0.29	0.12
Sosa	Jorge	17	14	85.7	4.31	4.79	1.30	1.42	5.15	3.36	1.53	35.66	71.14	0.268	7.50	19.57	0.48	0.12
Maine	John	22	22	135.0	3.27	3.97	1.16	1.27	7.60	3.27	2.33	35.25	78.76	0.254	7.73	15.23	0.70	0.11
Zambrano	Carlos	24	24	155.3	3.42	4.03	1.25	1.35	7.71	4.17	1.85	41.96	80.99	0.252	10.40	15.14	0.61	0.10
Bacsik	Mike	14	14	81.7	4.19	5.31	1.33	1.43	2.98	2.09	1.42	39.73	80.09	0.267	11.48	18.67	1.12	0.10
Cook	Aaron	23	23	154.7	4.13	4.71	1.30	1.40	3.26	2.39	1.37	57.22	71.88	0.283	10.48	18.52	0.58	0.10
Lincecum	Tim	16	16	98.3	3.75	3.66	1.19	1.28	9.61	4.12	2.33	42.97	72.80	0.264	9.09	14.40	-0.09	0.09
Wang	Chien - Ming	20	20	136.7	3.49	4.58	1.24	1.33	4.21	2.24	1.88	56.57	73.23	0.291	5.45	16.78	1.09	0.09
Verlander	Justin	21	21	134.0	3.49	4.06	1.19	1.28	7.99	3.29	2.43	41.21	76.92	0.268	7.28	18.35	0.57	0.09
Glavine	Tom	23	23	137.7	4.38	5.28	1.38	1.47	4.05	3.20	1.27	42.67	75.09	0.275	10.53	21.06	0.90	0.09
McGowan	Dustin	16	16	97.0	4.36	4.53	1.30	1.39	6.77	3.62	1.87	49.32	68.82	0.279	8.60	16.61	0.17	0.09
Perez	Oliver	19	19	120.0	3.00	3.71	1.18	1.26	8.93	3.52	2.53	32.21	84.80	0.255	9.32	17.17	0.71	0.08
Penny	Brad	22	22	142.0	2.60	4.25	1.22	1.30	6.27	2.98	2.11	51.20	79.10	0.292	3.28	19.30	1.65	0.08
Trachsel	Steve	20	20	108.7	4.97	6.33	1.58	1.66	3.23	4.64	0.70	38.99	73.83	0.283	8.81	17.66	1.36	0.08

Unluckiest

Requirements: Any pitcher with 12 or more starts and a LIPS ERA - ERA less than -0.10

LAST	FIRST	G	GS	IP	ERA	LIPS ERA	WHIP	DIPS WHIP	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	xGB%	LOB%	BABIP	HR/FB	LD%	LIPS ERA - ERA	DIPS WHIP - WHIP
Duke	Zach	17	17	93.3	5.79	5.23	1.75	1.48	3.18	2.12	1.50	51.42	69.74	0.381	10.00	20.83	-0.56	-0.27
Colon	Bartolo	16	16	85.7	6.72	4.36	1.67	1.42	7.04	2.84	2.48	39.31	66.14	0.369	12.40	18.31	-2.36	-0.25
Jackson	Edwin	21	20	96.0	6.56	4.74	1.80	1.60	7.69	4.88	1.58	43.45	66.58	0.363	10.34	18.69	-1.82	-0.20
Ramirez	Horacio	12	12	62.0	6.68	5.47	1.84	1.65	3.63	3.48	1.04	46.84	65.91	0.359	9.09	21.85	-1.21	-0.19
Padilla	Vicente	15	15	80.7	6.69	4.87	1.81	1.62	5.24	3.90	1.34	47.64	67.81	0.351	12.90	22.82	-1.82	-0.19
Simontacchi	Jason	13	13	70.7	6.37	4.87	1.67	1.49	5.35	2.93	1.83	34.94	69.07	0.352	11.82	21.26	-1.50	-0.18
Santana	Ervin	19	19	110.0	6.22	4.51	1.62	1.45	7.12	3.44	2.07	35.08	71.34	0.333	14.11	19.62	-1.71	-0.17
Millwood	Kevin	20	20	105.3	5.98	4.65	1.71	1.54	6.66	3.76	1.77	46.11	69.49	0.354	10.66	20.39	-1.33	-0.17
Olsen	Scott	23	23	125.3	5.53	4.54	1.70	1.53	6.89	4.52	1.52	38.35	71.50	0.351	9.94	21.98	-0.99	-0.17
Wells	David	21	21	114.7	5.18	4.71	1.55	1.41	4.87	2.59	1.88	40.86	72.51	0.337	10.39	19.46	-0.47	-0.14
Belisle	Matt	22	22	130.0	5.26	3.94	1.47	1.33	6.02	2.08	2.90	44.55	69.91	0.343	11.76	21.56	-1.32	-0.14
Weaver	Jeff	16	16	84.0	6.32	4.81	1.61	1.48	4.61	2.57	1.79	35.92	63.71	0.340	7.14	17.57	-1.51	-0.13
Contreras	Jose	21	21	121.3	6.60	4.95	1.65	1.52	5.19	3.41	1.52	44.10	64.21	0.335	9.80	18.91	-1.65	-0.13
Hernandez	Felix	19	19	118.0	3.89	3.42	1.38	1.25	8.54	2.59	3.29	58.89	77.50	0.348	17.11	16.19	-0.47	-0.13
Jennings	Jason	16	15	84.0	6.11	4.49	1.57	1.45	6.21	3.21	1.93	36.52	66.20	0.336	10.83	21.38	-1.62	-0.12
Tomko	Brett	30	12	89.0	5.56	4.21	1.57	1.45	7.08	3.44	2.06	40.75	68.72	0.338	9.73	21.00	-1.35	-0.12
Schilling	Curt	15	15	94.3	4.20	4.07	1.36	1.25	6.77	1.81	3.74	39.22	75.97	0.329	9.30	17.68	-0.13	-0.11
Tejeda	Rob.	19	19	95.3	6.61	5.08	1.78	1.67	6.51	5.66	1.15	32.80	69.65	0.317	10.69	14.11	-1.53	-0.11
Kazmir	Scott	24	24	145.0	3.72	3.83	1.48	1.37	9.50	4.28	2.22	42.21	78.64	0.344	7.50	14.99	0.11	-0.11
Perez	Odalis	23	23	124.3	5.79	5.24	1.64	1.53	4.27	3.18	1.34	44.74	67.44	0.339	8.18	19.21	-0.55	-0.11
Robertson	Nate	19	19	107.0	5.05	4.86	1.59	1.49	5.55	3.20	1.74	45.11	72.82	0.338	9.85	17.60	-0.19	-0.10
Lieber	Jon	14	12	78.0	4.73	4.06	1.45	1.35	6.23	2.54	2.45	48.45	70.62	0.336	9.46	27.00	-0.67	-0.10
Wolf	Randy	18	18	102.7	4.73	4.03	1.45	1.35	8.24	3.42	2.41	40.45	71.63	0.334	8.13	18.81	-0.70	-0.10
Sabathia	C.C.	24	24	167.0	3.56	3.54	1.20	1.10	7.98	1.24	6.43	42.71	76.71	0.331	9.14	18.86	-0.02	-0.10

Concluding thoughts

Sorry, no thoughts on the numbers tonight. I've been a bit under the weather lately, and I need to get back to bed. I do hope this helps to satisfy you guys a little bit. If not, you can look forward to tomorrow or Tuesday when I'll post the top 25 best and worst pitchers for LIPS ERA and DIPS WHIP. I'll also be posting about Ryan Braun, as well as another post on trade strategy, within the next couple of days.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Saturday, August 04, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

Posted by Derek Carty at 7:20pm

As with the American League, if I covered a guy in one of the Trade Aftermath articles, I won't repeat myself. I will mention them, though, to have everyone in one place and for comparative purposes.

Mark Teixeira | ATL | 1B - The best guy to switch leagues all year is ripe for the picking in NL-only leagues. I don't think he needs much explanation.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Octavio Dotel | ATL | RP - There's a chance he'll close sometime within the next couple of months, but with Bob Wickman and Rafael Soriano in the picture it will be difficult for him.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Manny Corpas | COL | CL - Brian Fuentes will begin his rehab assignment next week, but with how well Corpas is pitching he probably won't regain the closing role until September. It might be worth looking into a trade of Corpas, but if you don't he should still be counted on for at least three more weeks of closing. The Rockies will want Fuentes closing in 2008 to showcase him for a trade, so don't expect Corpas to close the rest of the year unless Fuentes gets hurt again.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Scott Proctor | LAD | RP - Not super talented and there is no way he will get saves. Can relatively be ignored.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Joel Pineiro | STL | SP - Poor stats even as a reliever for the Red Sox this year, Piniero shouldn't be relied on for good stats as a starter, even in the NL.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues.

Luis Castillo | NYM | 2B - Can be relied upon for a .300 batting average, a lot of runs and a few steals. There are worse options out there.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Tadahito Iguchi | PHI | 2B - Chase Utley's replacement should be good for at least a .280-.285 batting average, a handful of steals, and a little power. Should score a lot of runs given his No. 2 spot in the order and 13% walk rate.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues.

Ty Wigginton | HOU | 1B/2B/3B/OF - Decent power that will be helped by the Crawford boxes, but his batting average is only so-so.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton | ARZ | OF - A better bet than Adam Jones with the potential to exceed my recommendation, but I just can't pour mounds of praise on a guy who jumps to the bigs after less than 300 at-bats in Double-A.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Kyle Lohse | PHI | SP - Was injured during his last start and it is still unclear if he will go on the DL. If he doesn't, he can be useful in certain leagues.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Brian Lawrence | NYM | SP - Has good control and decent ground ball tendencies, but doesn't strike out a ton of batters. Pedro Martinez will be coming back soon, so Lawrence will be out of a starting spot pretty soon. I like him better than Lohse, though.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Phil Dumatrait | CIN | SP - Not very good control in the minors and not a lot of strikeouts. When Homer Bailey returns he could be sent back down.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all but very, very deep leagues.

Matt Morris | PIT | SP - Not a lot of strikeouts, but a 4.53 LIPS ERA and 1.40 DIPS WHIP make him somewhat useful. Might lose a win moving to Pittsburgh, but St. Louis hasn't scored too many more runs than the Pirates this year.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Pat Burrell | PHI | OF - Seven of 11 home runs HitTracker has tracked have gone over 400 true feet, and he should continue picking up RBIs and runs to go with a .265-.270-ish average. Owned in only 54% of ESPN leagues.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep 10, 12, and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues.

Greg Dobbs | PHI | 1B/3B/OF - Batting average should drop closer to .260, but with three of seven home runs going further than 400 true feet, according to HitTracker, he could be a decent option in deep leagues. Will probably start against all lefties in right field and pick up a few extra at-bats elsewhere.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

Comments

Friday, August 03, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

Posted by Derek Carty at 12:03pm

Well, the non-waiver trade deadline has passed and there have been some serious fantasy ramifications. I looked at most of them throughout the week, so I won't get too repetitive with guys I've already gone into detail about.

Joakim Soria | KC | CL - The new closer in Kansas City should have a pretty firm hold on the job. Gets strikeouts, has a very good K/BB.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Joaquin Benoit | TEX | CL - With Gagne gone, Benoit becomes the primary ninth-inning guy for Texas. Owners, be sure to keep close tabs on Akinori Otsuka's status. After a week or two, it might be worth trying to trade Benoit if an Otsuka return is likely.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

C.J. Wilson | TEX | RP/CL - Might be given a save opportunity if a couple of lefties are due up in the ninth.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Akinori Otsuka | TEX | CL - Could return in a week or two. When —if — he does, he'll be the closer.
Recommendation - Should be owned in any league you need saves in.

Eric Gagne | BOS | RP - Tough break for Gagne owners. Hopefully, you traded him, as I had suggested, before Texas did. Will pick up a few spare saves here and there, but his value has taken a big hit.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.

Dan Wheeler | TB | RP - Wheeler has been a little better than Al Reyes this year, though he was in the NL. Reyes should keep the job for now, but if he falters, Wheeler is next in line. I wouldn't bet too much on that happening, though. It would take a couple weeks of poor innings, and there really isn't much time left in the season.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Kyle Davies | KC | SP - He's got a rotation spot locked up, but he really isn't very talented. The switch to the AL will only hurt his chances for success.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jason Giambi | NYY | 1B - The Yanks now have a lot of guys they'd like to get playing time. Johnny Damon, Melky Cabrera, Shelley Duncan, and Wilson Betemit are already in the mix. Giambi is better than all of them, so hopefully he will get his regular at-bats.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues as long as he gets regular at-bats.

Wilson Betemit | NYY | 2B/3B/SS - Playing time will be tough to come by, limiting Betemit's value. He does have nice power and his batting average should come up a bit. Plus, he's a Yankee now. RBIs and runs will be more plentiful than they were with the Dodgers... when he plays, at least.
Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Philip Hughes | NYY | SP - I've got to be nearing double digits for the number of times I've touted Hughes so far this year. He possesses the trifecta of pitching: high strikeouts, low walks, high ground balls. If he's not owned yet, he needs to be.
Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues.

Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP - With Cliff Lee sent down, Laffey is likely to be recalled to make at least a couple of starts, despite having never pitched an inning above Double-A. He gets a lot of ground balls—like 60+%— but his K/9 in Double-A was only 4.87. He hasn't even shown great control. There's a real chance he will walk more batters than he strikes out in the majors.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in all leagues, unless ground balls is a category.

Adam Jones | SEA | OF - Some of the veterans are upset about it, but Jones should be in Seattle to stay. Took an in-depth look yesterday.
Recommendation - Should be owned in very deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Kason Gabbard | TEX | SP - Was getting lucky with the Sox, so a move to Texas really isn't going to help. Should give up a lot of home runs.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should only be owned in deep AL-only leagues.

Jason Botts | TEX | UT - While Sammy Sosa wasn't traded, it looks like Botts might start five games a week at DH, anyway, playing more often than Sosa. Sosa could clear waivers and be traded within a week or two, which would further solidify Botts' claim to the job. Ron Shandler says that a player's third stint in the majors—after the prospect shine has worn off— will often be the time when he finally starts to produce. The "Next Jack Cust" has a good chance of doing just that.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should only be owned in deep AL-only leagues.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia | TEX | C/1B - Showed nice power with the Braves, and Arlington will further help him. Catcher eligibility increases his value. Batting seventh, as he has been, isn't great for his value.
Recommendation - Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team, single-catcher mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10, 12, and 14-team, single-catcher AL-only leagues. Should be owned in all two-catcher leagues.

Danny Richar | CHW | 2B - Called up after the trade of Tadahito Iguchi, Richar will probably man second for the remainder of the season.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Alexi Casilla | MIN | 2B - Casilla won't play full-time at second, as many had expected him to after the trade of Luis Castillo. Manager Ron Gardenhire said he would ease Casilla into the role, splitting his time with Nick Punto and Luis Rodriguez. Punto will probably get the most time, but Casilla could start a few games a week.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12 and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues.

Nick Punto | MIN | 2B/3B/SS - Could start to lose time in September, but for now he should start at least four games per week at second. 82% contact rate, 12% walk rate, but only a 14% line drive rate. LD% has been 22% for his career, though, so it could easily improve. He should be able to hit for a pretty good average and grab a good number of steals, but he has very little power. Batting at the bottom of the order won't help his RBIs and runs much.
Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Jonny Gomes | TB | OF - So underrated. Has 30, probably 40, HR power should he play a full season. He's also capable of hitting .260 while drawing some walks. He's beginning to play more, finally overtaking Greg Norton, and needs to be picked up by those in need of power. Batting sixth and seventh will allow him to get some RBIs, but runs won't be as plentiful. Hopefully, at some point, Joe Maddon will realize what kind of player he has and allow Gomes to hit fourth or fifth. That doesn't seem to likely, though.
Recommendation - Should be owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues.

Kenny Lofton | CLE | OF - Will get less playing time with the Indians as he will face very few lefties. Only attempted one steal in July, so perhaps he is beginning to wear down. Watch closely how many attempts he makes over the next couple of weeks. He'll bat second most games, allowing him to score plenty of runs, but if he doesn't steal, he'll really only be a two-category contributor. He'll get a few RBIs in the second spot, but his home run production should drop off.
Recommendation - Should be considered in deep 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues.

There's a very good chance I missed someone with such a large Waiver Wire this week, so if you notice someone notable has been excluded, feel free to let me know either by email or in the comments.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Thursday, August 02, 2007

Prospect highlight: Upton and Jones called up

Posted by Derek Carty at 5:42pm

Just two days after the trade deadline, two of the most hyped prospects in baseball have gotten the call from their respective teams. Adam Jones and Justin Upton are in the bigs and are quite likely to stay. What kind of impact does each figure to have, though? That's what I'll be trying to figure out today.

Adam Jones

Was thought to be called up a few weeks back, but it turned out to be a false alarm. Now, it is the real deal. The first thing we need to do is look at his minor league numbers.

YEAR	AGE	LEVEL	AB	CR	BB	LD	BABIP	HR	AB/HR	OF FB	HR/FB	2B	3B	AB/(2B+3B)	AB/XBH	SB	CS	SB%
2005	19	A+	272	80%	9%	12%	.348	8	34	34%	11%	20	5	11	8	4	5	44%
2005	19	AA	228	81%	9%	19%	.339	7	32	28%	14%	10	3	18	11	9	4	69%
2006	20	AAA	376	82%	7%	18%	.308	16	24	31%	17%	19	4	16	10	13	4	76%
2007	21	AAA	409	75%	8%	24%	.342	24	17	30%	26%	26	6	13	7	8	7	53%

As you can see, his power has been going up at each stop, culminating in a spectacular 26% HR/FB rate in Triple-A this year. He doesn't hit an enormous number of outfield fly balls (major league average is roughly 32%), but most of his fantasy value will probably come from his power. As I say every time, it is extremely difficult to predict how minor league power will translate into major league power, but Jones has as good a chance as any to make it work. He could be good for 10 home runs over the next two months with regular playing time.

His batting average doesn't look as promising. A contact rate in the low 80s is decent, but it dropped to 75% in Triple-A this year. He can't afford for it to go much lower in the majors. If it settles in around 72% and his walk rate around 5-6%, his average won't be very pretty. His line drives will help a bit, but he might only be able to hit .255-ish with those numbers. Of course, there is upside —an average closer to .275 this year, especially considering his nice BABIPs—but the lower end seems a little more likely.

He has shown that he likes to run a little bit, although his success hasn't always been great. This might not bother the M's too much, though, as the team success rate is just 65%. Correct me if I'm wrong, but the last I read, a player (or team) needs to be successful at least 70% of the time to impact an offense positively. It doesn't seem like the Mariners realize this, so they could let Jones run even if he gets caught occasionally and even if it costs them some runs. Luckily, most fantasy leagues don't discount value for being caught stealing.

The potential problem with his steals is that the Mariners are only 19th in baseball in attempts. Of course, they don't have many fast guys. Besides Ichiro Suzuki, the only Mariner with 10 or more stolen base attempts is Adrian Beltre, who has 10. It's difficult to say how the Mariners feel about Jones stealing, but he'll probably be seen as their second most dangerous threat on the bases, meaning he could be given some opportunities. I don't think he'll get to 10 steals, but he is a good bet to get more than five.

What about playing time? The Mariners outfield consists of Raul Ibanez, Ichiro, and Jose Guillen, with the DH spot filled by Jose Vidro. Ichiro won't lose time, but when Jones plays, he'll be taking the spot of one of the other three, rotating in and out. Because he's likely better than Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez, I think—when he plays—he'll be slotted in the top six or seven in the order, giving him some decent RBI opportunities.

How much will he play? Manager John McLaren, when asked about it, said, "I would prefer not to talk about Adam's role at this time." I don't think they've recalled him to bench him, so he might see four or five starts a week.

Justin Upton

As you've probably heard, Upton won't turn 20 until the end of the month. Despite this, he is primed to take a full-time gig with the Diamondbacks' big league club. Having had only 242 at-bats in Double-A, is he really ready for the show? Let's check out his minor league numbers.

YEAR	AGE	LEVEL	AB	CR	BB	LD	BABIP	HR	AB/HR	OF FB	HR/FB	2B	3B	AB/(2B+3B)	AB/XBH	SB	CS	SB%
2006	18	A	438	81%	10%	13%	.296	12	37	33%	10%	28	1	15	11	15	7	68%
2007	19	A+	130	78%	13%	17%	.402	5	26	35%	14%	6	2	16	10	9	4	69%
2007	19	AA	242	81%	13%	16%	.313	12	20	34%	17%	17	4	12	7	10	7	59%

Upton has shown very nice power development, going up at each level—across the board—in AB/HR, HR/FB, AB/(2B+3B), and AB/XBH. His fly ball rate has stayed consistently at a good level. While it is developing nicely, I'm not quite sure it is good enough for the big time yet. He might be capable of hitting 12 homers over the next two months, but I think half of that is more likely. As long as he is handled properly (which he might be with this jump), he could become a legitimate power threat in the future.

Upton's batting average—like Jones'—isn't quite as nice. His BABIPs have not been very good. It was a fantastic .402 in Single-A+, but we are looking at a fairly small sample size there. In Double-A, it was only .313. His line drive rates were also pretty low. This leads me to believe he might struggle hitting big league hurlers. Upton's walk rates are very nice and his contact rates are okay, but I don't see Upton putting up a great batting average this year. With a 76% contact and 7-8% walk rate, he might be able to hit .260-.265, but if his BABIP ends up being low he'll have trouble getting over .250.

The Diamondbacks are fifth in stolen base percentage and 21st in stolen base attempts, so they are pretty selective with their runners. Upton has attempted 30 steals so far this year, but was successful only 63% of the time. We'll have to see if the Diamondbacks let him try, but the only guys they've really let run so far are Eric Byrnes and Chris Young. Of course, they have both been fantastic, so maybe Upton will be able to do this same. It doesn't seem incredibly likely though. Young stole at a 77% clip in Triple-A last year, so he could reasonably be expected to succeed in the majors. Upton should grab a handful of steals, but I don't see him as the 20-steal guy that many people do. Not yet, anyway.

Unlike Jones, Upton has the luxury of a full-time job. With Carlos Quentin potentially out for the year, Upton should have right field all to himself, at least for a while. It seems unlikely the D'Backs would call him up and start his options clock if they knew Quentin would be back in a couple of weeks. Without much pop behind Young, Orlando Hudson, Byrnes, and Conor Jackson, Upton could find himself hitting as high as No. 5, although a spot around sixth or seventh might be more realistic. If he could secure the No. 5 spot, he would have plenty of RBI opportunities.

Concluding thoughs

So, you may be asking, which of these guys is a better pickup? Well, it depends on what you're looking for. Neither should be counted on as a savior for your team, but in deeper leagues, they could contribute nicely.

Jones probably will show more raw power, but the AL and Safeco might depress his totals a bit. Upton, conversely, probably will show less raw power, but has the NL and Chase Field to fall back on. When you combine this with his—potentially—better batting average, better spot in the order, and better likelihood for playing time, Upton looks like the better bet. Because his highest level is Double-A, though, and he had only a little over 200 at-bats there, failure is also more likely.

Either way, be careful. Both have very good potential, but minor leaguers are the toughest to predict and are always a candidate for failure in their first stint in the bigs. Granted, Jones took 74 at-bats in Seattle last year, but they were just that...74 at-bats. Not enough to really judge him on.

Jones can be owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues. Upton can be owned in deep mixed and 12 and 14-team NL-only leagues.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Wednesday, August 01, 2007

Trade aftermath: Betemit to Yanks

Posted by Derek Carty at 8:02pm

This will be the last deadline trade I'll look at, as it's the last one that has some semi-serious fantasy impact. Most of the smaller trades will be looked at in this week's Waiver Wire.

Yankees get: 2B/3B/SS Wilson Betemit
Dodgers get: RP Scott Proctor
Quick outlook: Betemit gains a little value. Proctor gains value.
Indirectly affected: Melky Cabrera loses value.

Analysis:
It will be interesting to see how the Yankees use Betemit. It certainly won't be at third. I hear they already have a guy over there who's pretty good. His name's Alex something or other. I've also heard he sucks, though... mostly from Yankee fans. I'm not sure what to believe. Digs at the stupidity of certain Yankees fans aside, Betemit probably has only a spot at first. How much he plays, though, is still up in the air.

However the Yankees use him, he'll likely get more at-bats than he was getting with the Dodgers recently. When Jason Giambi comes back, the Yankees will be forced to either play Johnny Damon at first or bench Melky Cabrera and play Betemit. They could also use a combination of those options.

So who should they play? Melky is the better contact hitter, but Betemit has a 17% walk rate so far and is a much better power hitter. He's hit seven home runs past 399 true feet, according to HitTracker. One went 444 true feet. Melky, on the other hand, has yet to hit one past 400 feet. Betemit also has the higher fly ball rate—41% to 27%. Of course, Betemit was hitting in the NL and Melky the AL, but I think the Yanks would be better off playing Betemit. What they actually do is yet to be seen.

As far as Betemit's batting average, I think it is likely to come up given his 17% walk rate (although that is likely to see some regression) and low .268 BABIP. He's only hit 15% line drives this year, but seeing as it was 25% and 21% in 2005 and 2006, there is room for improvement. His 70% contact rate will prevent him from hitting for a high average, but a .270 batting average wouldn't be out of the question. Batting for the Yanks would give him some nice RBI and Run opportunities.

If Betemit falls into some regular playing time, he could be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. He should also be considered in 10 and owned in 12 and 14-team AL-only leagues.

Proctor moves to a weaker league, although he still shouldn't really be owned. He gets very few ground balls and has shown poor control this year. He doesn't strike out many batters for a reliever, either.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Trade aftermath: Teixeira to Braves

Posted by Derek Carty at 1:11pm

The second big trade for the Braves, and the second big trade for the Rangers. While the deadline mostly consisted of relievers switching teams, this was the lone trade that involved a legitimate star.

Braves get: 1B Mark Teixeira, RP Ron Mahay
Rangers get: C/1B Jarrod Saltalamacchia, SS Elvis Andrus (A+), SP Matt Harrison (AA), P Beau Jones (A+), P Neftali Feliz (R)
Quick outlook: Teixeira gains value. Saltalamacchia gains a little value. Mahay gains a little value. Harrison gains a little value. Jones is unaffected. Feliz is unaffected
Indirectly affected: Scott Thorman loses value. Gerald Laird loses value. Brad Wilkerson gains a little value. Edgar Renteria gains a little value. Chipper Jones gains a little value. Jeff Francoeur gains a little value. Andruw Jones gains a little value.

Analysis:
Teixeira leaves a good park for homers, but he enters an easier league and a much better lineup. He will bat cleanup for the Braves, with Kelly Johnson, Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones batting ahead of him. Each should be able to score some extra runs. Teixeira will have some combination of Jeff Francoeur, Andruw Jones, and Brian McCann behind him, padding his run total a bit. Those guys should also grab a few extra RBIs. The Braves lineup is definitely one to be feared now.

Bad news for Thorman and his owners, as the only position he is able to play is now filled by Teixeira. Best case is that he stays on the bench and pinch hits. Worst case is that he gets designated for assignment. Either way, most of his value is gone.

His position isn't set in stone, but no matter where Saltalamacchia plays, he will almost certainly be a full-time player. While he enters a tougher league overall, he will hit in a better park for power. He should have been hitting a few more home runs with the Braves, and looking at his HitTracker data, it appears that a larger than usual power spike might be in order for Salty. I wouldn't be surprised if he hits 10 homers in the next couple of months. The Rangers don't have many better hitters, so Salty could hit closer to the heart of the order than he did with the Braves, giving him some extra at-bats and some extra RBIs and Runs.

Salty will likely play most of his games at catcher, which cuts into Gerald Laird's value a lot. It helps Brad Wilkerson, though; he could start most games at first base. Saltalamacchia might also play a little at first, so Wilkerson won't be in the lineup every day. Regardless, he should be a little more valuable than he was before this trade.

You must realize that the Rangers lineup isn't very good anymore. Losing Kenny Lofton and Teixeira will hurt the RBI and run totals of the rest of the team, and Hank Blalock might be out another three weeks. Don't expect anyone on that team to put up gaudy numbers in either category.

Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.

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Friday, August 31, 2007

Waiver Wire: American League

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Thursday, August 30, 2007

Strategy: Playing - and winning - in an inactive league

My situation

Limited player pool

Avoiding an inactive league altogether

Succeeding in an inactive league

Concluding thoughts

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Wednesday, August 29, 2007

A look at Jered Weaver

2006 and luck

2007 and luck

Looking to the future

Closing thoughts

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Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Is it cheating? A possible collusive trade and its aftermath

Monday, August 27, 2007

Checking in on Pedro Martinez

Rehab starts

Velocity

Focus

Don't get too excited

Closing thoughts

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Sunday, August 26, 2007

A look at Troy Tulowitzki

2006 minor league numbers

2007 first half numbers

2007 second half numbers

Future expectations

Concluding thoughts

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Saturday, August 25, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

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Waiver Wire: American League

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Thursday, August 23, 2007

Keeper watch: James Hoey

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Wednesday, August 22, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Wins

Wins

Concluding thoughts

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Waiver Wire efficiency: ERA, WHIP, and K

The problem

The solution

One more option

Starters - ERA and WHIP

Starters - Strikeouts

Relievers

Concluding thoughts

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Tuesday, August 21, 2007

“Tacit communication” and prospect evaluation

Monday, August 20, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Batting average

Batting average

Concluding thoughts

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Sunday, August 19, 2007

Waiver Wire efficiency: Runs

Runs

Concluding thoughts

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Saturday, August 18, 2007

Waiver Wire: National League

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Friday, August 17, 2007