|
December 1, 2008
Got a question for our fantasy baseball experts? Send it to the THT Fantasy Mailbag.  Plus our Statistical Definitions Recent Comments at BallhypeThe statistical impact of switching leagues (for hitters) 1 recent comment The LineupMonthly Archives
December, 2008
November, 2008 October, 2008 September, 2008 August, 2008 July, 2008 June, 2008 May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 February, 2008 January, 2008 December, 2007 November, 2007 October, 2007 September, 2007 August, 2007 July, 2007 June, 2007 May, 2007 StubHub is where fans buy and sell Yankees Tickets, Red Sox Tickets, White Sox Tickets, Mets Tickets and all other baseball tickets. If you are looking for World Series Tickets, ALCS Tickets or NLCS Tickets, you can find them at StubHub! More hot selling tickets include: Cubs Tickets, Astros Tickets, Dodgers Tickets, Angels Tickets and Detroit Tigers Tickets. Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets.
Or you can search by:
THT's Toolbox All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |
Most Recent Posts
Wednesday, August 08, 2007Ryan Braun: The real deal?Posted by Derek Carty at 8:17pmRyan Braun should reach his 300th major league plate appearance tomorrow night. Over those first 300 trips to the plate, Braun has been nothing short of spectacular: .346/.390/.665 with 21 homers. Since he's a rookie, though, we have to wonder: Is he playing over his head? Let's find out. MinorsWhen Braun was called up, I was skeptical. This was mostly because I didn't think he was completely ready, and because his numbers in the lower levels of the minors were less than spectacular. He took only 231 at-bats in Double-A (in 2006) and 109 at-bats in Triple-A (to start this year). I thought he was being rushed. The Triple-A numbers, while great, were almost too small a sample size to take seriously. He had a 91% contact rate, 11% walk rate, 22% line drive rate, 34% HR/FB. His Double-A numbers were worse: 78% contact rate, 8% walk rate, 12% line drive rate, 22% HR/FB. The power there was the only thing to get excited about. As such, I kept my expectations low for Braun, at least for this year. As I'm sure you've realized, he has far exceeded them... to the tune of 9.0 RC/G. Batting averageLet's dig a little deeper into his seemingly great numbers. Behind Braun's .346 batting average is a 77% contact rate, 7% walk rate and 20% line drive rate. He also has a .385 BABIP. That is probably the most telling number of all. No hitter>—not Barry Bonds, not Albert Pujols, not Alex Rodriguez>—is capable of sustaining a BABIP that high. It will come down. His 7% walk rate is a little below average and his 20% line drive rate is a little above average, so a BABIP near league average would be more reasonable than the current .385 mark. Home runsLet's get back to what type of batting average to expect the rest of the year after we examine his power. He currently sports 21 homers, a 24% HR/FB and a 42% fly ball rate. The first place we'll look to see if that sparkling HR/FB rate is for real is HitTracker. Of Braun's 21 homers, 10 have traveled farther than 400 true feet. That's a nice chunk, making his 24% HR/FB look pretty legit. A couple of days ago I was a little concerned because his furthest had gone only 419 true feet, and he had several in the 400-408 range. Then he hit a 416-foot one on Saturday and a 438-foot one on Monday, easing my nerves a bit. Batting average revisitedSo let's say he continues to put up a 24% HR/FB and his BABIP adjusts to around .310 (and his contact, walk, and fly ball rates remain constant). That would put his batting average at .294 the rest of the way. It would drop to .287 if his BABIP is only .300. Not bad at all, considering the nice power numbers he'll put up. Concluding thoughtsThe verdict: Braun is very good. Not .350 good, but very good. Continue to rely on Braun for good power and a pretty good batting average, even if it won't stay as high as it has been so far. The players surrounding Braun are quite good, so the RBIs and runs should keep coming as well. I didn't touch on his speed, but it is right in line with what I expected. He should be able to grab five to eight more steals the rest of the year. I think it shows great maturity and skill for Braun to put up a good line drive rate (20%) and fly ball rate (42%) in his rookie year. Not a lot of hitters are capable of doing both. Quite impressive. Overall, Braun could be one of the top five third basemen going into 2008, helping in all categories. If you're in a keeper league and are now playing for next year, a trade for Braun might be a smart move. If you're in a redraft league, I doubt you'd be able to get him at a reasonable price given his inflated batting average. Seeing Braun contributing across the board will lead some owners to believe Braun can continue to hit well over .300. It can't hurt to try to get him, but don't get your hopes up. If you own him, sit tight. Expect a slight regression but continued good play. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
