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December 1, 2008
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December, 2008
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Monday, August 13, 2007Keeper league strategy: InjuriesPosted by Derek Carty at 4:12pmThe final article for today, we'll talk about how trading for injured players can pay a world of dividends for your team next year. Capitalizing on injuries in keeper leaguesWhen news broke that Chase Utley had fractured his hand and would be out 4-6 weeks, many of his owners watched as their championship dreams floated away. With the drop-off from Utley to Maicer Izturis, one owner didn't see how he could make up that production. Even if he tried to trade Utley, he likely wouldn't be able to get much value for him. That was until one owner came along and offered up Jason Bay. Out of context, this seems like a ridiculous move. In the hypothetical league I'm talking about, though, it was a genius move. The first thing to know is that it's a keeper league. The Utley owner was in second place and had a legitimate chance to finish in first. The Bay owner was in tenth place and did not. He had paid $40 at auction for Jason Bay, predicting a huge breakout, and — after making several ill-fated moves like this one — had found himself in the basement of his league. Oddly enough, Utley was auctioned for just $30 a few hours into the auction. The market — especially for second basemen — saw inflation early, and a number of short-sighted owners didn't realize that it was likely Utley would come cheaper later. The Utley owner was thrilled to get a guy as good as Jason Bay for his damaged goods and keep his championship hopes alive, and the Bay owner (who was fortunate enough to read this article before his league's trade deadline  ) was equally thrilled to get a good keeper like Utley for such a reasonable price. Since Bay wasn't in his plans for next year at $40, it made no difference if he traded him, dropped him, or let him sit on his roster the rest of the year.By now, I think you've figured out this strategy. Target good, keepable players that were recently injured on teams still in the championship hunt. Explain to these owners how six weeks of Roger Clemens is much more valuable than three weeks of Ben Sheets... and that's assuming he doesn't suffer a setback. Most owners will see the logic in this, get themselves back into the race, and kindly give you a very nice keeper. Players to targetHere's a list of batters currently on the DL who might make good targets:
And here are some pitchers:
Of course, depending on their price tags and how many players you are allowed to keep, not all of these guys would be good to go after. Player notesI'd just like to quickly talk about a couple of these guys. Nick Johnson has great numbers and might come easily in a trade, especially if his owner is in the running for this year. Everyone knew Johnson would miss a good chunk of this year, so he probably came cheaply — if he was auctioned at all. Still not active, he might come even cheaper in a trade. He could be a great player next year, especially if the Nationals make a few moves to improve their offense. If nothing else, getting Johnson would give you another option for next year. Francisco Liriano is another guy like this, albeit one with much more hype. He possesses that drool-worthy combination of strikeouts, walks, and ground balls that is so rare in a pitcher. Were it not for his injury, he almost certainly would have been the #1 pitcher on my personal rankings coming into this year. He will be just a year removed from Tommy John surgery, though, so temper your expectations a bit. Also, a warning about Chase Utley, from Rick Wilton: Players coming off wrist and hand injuries rarely regain their normal power levels for up to a year after the injury. Even if he's able to regain his power stroke in less than a year, he sure as heck isn't going to find it in September. All we have to do is look at Derrek Lee as an example to see how a wrist injury, albeit a much more serious one than Utley's, causes a player to lose some power for an extended period of time. The standard guideline for that power drop is at least 12 months. This is something else to consider when pursuing these trades. Make sure that the injury the targeted player has sustained isn't the type that will cause a decrease in production next year or is one that the player could continue to struggle with next year. Concluding thoughtsThat wraps up today's keeper league discussion. If you use these strategies, I think you'll find yourself in a better position come March. If you have any questions, feel free to send me an email. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Keeper league strategy: ClosersPosted by Derek Carty at 3:51pmThis is the second article in today's three-part series on keeper leagues. It will focus on a nice strategy to help deal with some tricky closer situations. Closers in keeper leaguesAgain, all keeper leagues are different, but if you are in one where your league-mates make a habit of keeping top closers, this strategy will be especially good for you. In these types of leagues, when auction day (or draft day) rolls around, the number of closers will be limited. Those who haven't kept a top closer will be bidding against each other for the left-overs... the second tier closers. By default, their price will rise, quite possibly above their raw value. This can trickle down the list of closers until Seth McClung (to take an example from this year) is being auctioned for some crazy amount, like $14. So how do you avoid this? Do you simply punt saves? Do you overpay for a closer? Hopefully, you won't have to do either. Hopefully, this draft-day inflation won't happen. The intelligent owner, though, will prepare — just in case — read the market come draft day, and decide on a course of action. If you're out of the running this year, the stats you accrue over the remainder of 2007 make no difference to you. You could, theoretically, drop every player you don't intend to keep, tank, and it wouldn't make an ounce of difference. Of course, I don't advocate this. You shouldn't have your keepers set in stone yet, although you should definitely have a good idea who they will be. (It would also annoy the rest of your league if you drop a $58 Albert Pujols because you decide he's too expensive to keep. Might even get you kicked out before you can smoke them all in 2008!) Knowing this, feel free to drop any overpriced, old, or otherwise unkeepable players and pick up some that fall into the next category: middle relievers with the inside track for a job closing. The owners in your league who are in it for this year might be ignoring these guys. Since you are concerned with next year, take the inside track while you can. Any advantage you can get is one worth pursuing. When Brad Hennessey gets auctioned for $25 next year, you might be sitting on the Indians' newly anointed closer Rafael Betancourt for $1. The great news is that it won't cost you anything in the short term because you're already out of it! How's that for value? Of course, there's no way to predict who will be closing next year for certain, but you don't have to. If you're out of it, you just need to play the odds a little bit. Pick up five guys from the next list and, come March, if any of them have been promoted, decide to make that guy a keeper. That'll show up that guy who's keeping Joe Nathan for $32.
If I was a gambling man and had to pick five guys off this list, I would probably take Betancourt, Otsuka, Dotel, Soriano, and Marmol — although they are just my guesses. Any of those guys would make very nice closers and fine keepers in most leagues. Manny Corpas is another guy who you could pickup (once Brian Fuentes starts closing in September and Corpas owners ditch him). He won't start the year as the closer, but there's a good chance Fuentes will be traded in July and you'll get half a season out of Corpas. If none of your other guys pan out, half a season of saves is well-worth $1, if your league works that way. You might be thinking now, "good strategy, but what if — after everyone sees me using it this year — they copy it next year?" The first thing I would say is that hopefully next year you'll be in such a good position that you'll be in first, with a number of great keepers, and won't have to worry about strategies like these. If you are in the middle of the pack again, though, it wouldn't necessarily be bad news for you. If enough people can get closers cheap like this, it could right the auction-day closers market, allowing closers to go for normal value instead of seeing rampant inflation. Need another positive? I've got 22 guys on the list above, and I've probably left a few guys out. As long as you act early, you should have no trouble getting enough to use the strategy yourself going into 2009. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Keeper league strategy: WinningPosted by Derek Carty at 1:14pmSorry for not posting yesterday. It was the trade deadline in a couple of my leagues, and I was working the phones. As per my own advice, I had completed the majority of my trades a few weeks ago and laid the groundwork with the owners who made the mistake of wanting to wait to trade. Those were the owners I was working with yesterday (over the past few days, really). In the words of my favorite Kazakh reporter, "Great success!" First, a quick note. I had originally planned this as one article, but since it ran longer than expected, I'm going to break it up into three. Expect the remaining articles in the series shortly! Keeper leaguesMost of this year, my writings have been dedicated to redraft leagues. I've rarely talked about keeper leagues, despite their growing role in the world of fantasy baseball. This might be because of the varying rules in keeper leagues. It would be difficult to find two leagues with exactly the same setup, so giving generalized advice can be difficult. Many readers that are in keeper leagues have been in regular contact with me for advice, but I've never written up a formal post about them. I know that some trade deadlines have passed, but in other leagues there is still time. If you're in a keeper league and are playing for next year, listen up, even if your deadline has passed. Rule #1: Always play to winIf you're sitting in fifth place right now and are confident you can come in second or third by making a couple of trades... don't. Unless you're in an ultra high-stakes league where you can make a small fortune by coming in third place, don't play for it. Always play for first. Whether that first comes this year or next is up to you, but never fall into the trap of settling for less. If you don't think you can win, go into 'next year' mode. I can't speak for everyone, but I know, for myself, that second place is simply not satisfying. Second place, in anything, feels the same as last. I always go 100% at everything I do and settle for nothing but first. I care more about the win than the money. Of course, some of you probably are the opposite, valuing money more than the win. Whatever your top priority, playing for less than first is a mistake. In our example from above, going from fifth to second might require you to trade a player who would be valuable next year. Avoid this temptation. The big money — and the glory — come from first place. Be patient. Would you rather come in third twice or first once and fifth once? And since you're aiming for that first to come next year, it becomes even more likely that you'll be able to take first in the years that follow. If you're continually playing for third, hoping for some luck to allow you to take first, it will be difficult to break that cycle of mediocrity. Set yourself up really well for next year, and the chips will fall into place from there. The next couple of articles will explain some not-so-obvious ways to do this. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
