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December 3, 2008
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Wednesday, March 05, 2008Draft strategy: Taking high risk players latePosted by Derek Carty at 10:30pmThe strategy I'm about to present isn't anything earth-shattering and is probably old news to some of you, but I believe that it is something worth mentioning. So you get to the end of your draft, and you're looking at who's left in the 20th round, and you see guys like Luis Castillo, Orlando Hudson, Mike Cameron, and Lyle Overbay still hanging around. You also notice guys like Evan Longoria, Colby Rasmus, Jay Bruce, Adam Jones, and Kevin Kouzmanoff interspersed. The safe routeSome fantasy owners like to go the safe route and take someone like Cameron. His skill set has been pretty consistent, and you basically know what you're going to get with him. Check out his numbers over the past few years: YEAR LAST FIRST CR BB% BABIP HR/FB AB/HR SBO% SBA% SB% 2007 Cameron Mike 72 10 0.300 13 27 0.235 15 78 2006 Cameron Mike 74 11 0.325 13 25 0.252 21 74 2005 Cameron Mike 72 8 0.341 15 26 0.233 18 93 2004 Cameron Mike 71 10 0.263 19 16 0.210 24 79 The BABIP fluctuates, but we know that a good deal of luck is involved there, and it seems to fluctuate around .310 or so. He had more power in 2004, but that seems to have leveled off with age. The 93 percent stolen base percentage came out of nowhere, but it looks pretty anomalous given the consistency of it in the surrounding years. Everything else looks pretty consistent. Cameron will hit around .250 with 15-20 steals and 20 home runs, but it would be a huge surprise to see him hit .330 with 35 home runs and 50 steals. While you know what you're getting from Cameron, what you're getting is largely unspectacular. Boom or bustInstead of opting for Cameron, though, you could take a guy like Jay Bruce. He's younger, has shown pretty good skills so far, and has a lot of upside. Conversely, he's also a decent bet to start the year in the minors with the recent signing of Corey Patterson and the presence of Ryan Freel and Norris Hopper. Plus, he's young and doesn't have any major league experience. For some, I'm sure it is a real balancing act trying to decide between a solid, consistent contributor and a boom or bust pick. This decision, though, is a very easy one to make. Take Jay Bruce. Reasoning behind the strategyHere's the thing. If you take the Cameron type, he'll give you solid production you can bank on. But because you're taking him in one of the last rounds, the difference in value between him and a guy like Brad Wilkerson or Xavier Nady or (insert replacement level outfielder of your choice here) just isn't that large. So take Bruce. Stick him on your bench and wait for him to be recalled. If he gets regular playing time from May to September, you could end up with 12th round value. If he doesn't get recalled or stinks it up when he does, drop him. If your team gets hit with the injury bug and you need a major leaguer to put in a starting spot, drop him. You know who you're going to end up replacing him with? Brad Wilkerson, Xavier Nady, or the replacement level outfielder of your choice. It's really a no risk/high reward move. Use this strategy on...This strategy doesn't just include younger players, though. It includes any player who has a large amount of variance in his projection. Using this strategy, instead of opting for a Mike Cameron or a Jay Bruce, you could instead opt for a player like Barry Bonds. His projection has a lot of variance for the simple fact that he has yet to sign with a major league team. If he signs, he still has good skills and could far outproduce, say 20th round value. He could also fail to sign, though, and produce zero value. The same principles apply, and unlike Bruce, you'll find out much sooner whether you're going to get a return on your investment. Here are the categories of players that I feel work with this strategy:
Here are some guys who I feel fall into one or more of these categories for 2008:
I'm sure I missed plenty of guys, but I think you understand what I'm getting at. Concluding thoughtsIf you've already been using this strategy, hopefully this will act as a reinforcer. If you haven't been using it, hopefully you now realize the benefits you can reap from it. You will never win a fantasy league by simply keeping up with the pack. Oftentimes, you need to be bold. And when an opportunity for such boldness presents itself in a fashion that offers—essentially—zero downside, why the heck not? Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he was a contributor at Rotoworld this past season. He was the champion of the FOX Sports Experts Fantasy Baseball League this past year. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Fantasy Mailbag: Catcher strategy, trade vetoes, James ShieldsPosted by Tim Dierkes at 2:19amTim Dierkes writes a daily fantasy baseball blog called RotoAuthority. If you enjoy this column, check it out. Time to bust out the ol' mailbag once again. I love answering random reader questions. Feel free to send one here, but please don't make it specific to your fantasy team. Let's dive in. What do you think of not drafting a catcher until one of the latest rounds in a two-catcher 12-man league? Would this be a wise strategy if I do not draft one of the top four catchers?—Michael I recently did a league where I drafted both Russell Martin and Joe Mauer, because I thought they had slipped further than they should have. While this strategy may work out, I mostly regret it. At most, I'd recommend shooting for one of the top three—Martin, Mauer, McCann—and then filling the other slot with a fairly cheap guy. Note that "fairly cheap" does not imply "Johnny Estrada." Geovany Soto in the 14th round, J.R. Towles in the 17th, Carlos Ruiz in the 25th and Ryan Doumit in the 26th are what I had in mind. And the idea of Dioner Navarro as an undrafted mixed league sleeper is definitely starting to grow on me, looking at his last two months. We have a keeper league where two players of relatively equal values were swapped. Fair trade, right? Well, what if that trade was right before the trade deadline and one owner had no intention of keeping the player received? He called it an "owner courtesy trade" and as it was otherwise a fair trade he thought it reasonable to do as he wasn't keeping his player anyways. Some owners in our league are fine with it while others are calling foul—with the reasoning being that something was given for "nothing." We resolved the issue already, but I'm curious to hear what would you would say: fair or foul?—Eldestson Foul. I am very much opposed to vetoing trades because they seem unbalanced. The one reason I will object to a trade is if I see it as one owner doing another a favor. As soon as it happens (often between family members) the integrity of the league is shot. In this case, you know it was a favor because he basically said so. Owners in good competitive leagues do not aid other teams with no benefit to themselves. Usually if you do a $50-100 buy-in you'll eliminate this issue. How legit was James Shields of Tampa Bay last year? Was last a year a career year or the start of an amazing run? How much injury risk do you see?—Dan B. I consider Shields' 2007 quite legit, though I don't think he'll replicate it. I'm calling for a 4.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with 179 strikeouts in 218 innings, a $17 value. Shields could be Aaron Harang and then some in the NL, but remember he's in the AL East. As a ninth rounder Shields is being drafted about where he should be. But Tim Lincecum is going later and I'd prefer him. As for injury risk, Shields' 29-inning increase last year doesn't worry me; 14.9 pitchers per inning is definitely on the efficient side (same as C.C. Sabathia in '07). A friend of mine told me last week that he could win a roto league drafting all pitching first, so we made a wager of it. The deal is, in an ESPN public roto league, he drafted pitching until all the roster spots were full, and I drafted hitting until all I had a full complement. After that we're free to do whatever except that we're not allowed to trade or drop our initial set of pitchers and hitters, respectively. The question is: Which of the two following teams do you prefer, and do you consider either of these all-or-nothing draft strategies to be reasonable? My draft is even more avant-garde, as I over-drafted an army of b-list closers to fill out my pitching.—Fletcher In a good competitive league (ie, the exact opposite of an ESPN public league), this strategy would be highly unlikely to work. I can almost guarantee that drafting all pitchers will bomb, probably even in a crappy league. However, a savvy player could make the all hitters approach work. If you won all the hitting categories you'd have 60 points. That means you'd need maybe 30 pitching points, for which a completely average staff would be needed. You could assemble an average or slightly above average staff on the waiver wire. I have begun to lean toward the hitting-heavy approach, which is of course conventional wisdom. But if you're good at picking pitchers, you can definitely wait until the 10th round for them and assemble a reliable offense. For more fantasy content, check out THT's Fantasy Focus blog! Tim Dierkes runs two daily baseball blogs: RotoAuthority.com and MLBTradeRumors.com. He welcomes comments, questions, and suggestions via e-mail. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
