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Most Recent Posts
Wednesday, April 16, 2008Erik Bedard - Windup WorriesPosted by Chris Neault at 4:37amOver the past week, my email has been flooded with requests to highlight Erik Bedard's recent hip injury. I have been trying to figure out what is wrong with his hip, but the problem is that Seattle is staying pretty much silent on the matter. With only the extremely vague description of "hip inflammation", you can see how I would have some trouble writing up a comprehensive article regarding his condition. But for every injury, there must be a cause. So I decided to watch some video on Erik Bedard to see what his left hip looks like during his pitching motion. What I saw when I first viewed the video on YouTube was so glaringly evident that I can't believe nobody else saw it first (especially Baltimore and Seattle fans - shame on you)! To my knowledge, there has been no report as to the severity of the injury or any insight as to what structure(s) may be involved. I also have not heard anything about x-rays or MRI results. With that being said, here is my initial impression of what could be going on after having viewed some video footage. Just scour the hipA test that is often used in orthopedic evaluation of the hip is called the scouring test. This is when the examiner pushes into the hip joint through the knee while rotating and "scouring" the hip joint surface in the socket. This is a test that is used to assess the articulating surfaces of the femoral head (ball) with the acetabulum (socket). A positive test is indicated by pain, locking, clicking, or catching in the joint. Video assessment of Bedard's pitching motionNow take a look at this video clip (thank you YouTube and user jamessutherland23): Notice how Bedard plants the left leg, then twists his trunk, pelvis, and right knee towards the left hip—past the left hip—then returns towards home plate. In essence, this is a functional scouring test for the hip. The weight of the body is placed through the left hip, so the joint surfaces are abutting one another. The rotation of the upper body over the left hip then "scours" the joint. This can create a situation that is, for lack of better terms, awful for the cartilage surfaces of the hip. Clinical implicationsIf Bedard has been pitching like this for a long time, which I can only figure he has been, the chance that he might have an early onset of degenerative changes of the left hip is likely. The articular cartilage that protects the head of the femur can soften and wear away, exposing bone surfaces and creating pain. The other structures I would be worried about are the acetabular rim (the outer rim of the socket, which is bone), and the acetabular labrum, which is much like the labrum of the shoulder (a softer, meniscus-like cartilage that adds depth and extra stability for the joint). When I read that anti-inflammatory medication was not working for him, it set off a red flag in my mind. The reason I say this is because usually with a minor muscular injury, or some form of tendonitis, the body will respond quite positively to the rest and medication. The fact that Bedard's hip did not respond to rest and medication can lead us to believe that perhaps something else is going on here. The next step should be diagnostic imaging (although this likely has already taken place, we just have not heard about it). I would not be surprised in the least if we found that Bedard has a labral tear in the left hip, and/or an arthritic hip. Another symptom that led me to believe that this is an articular problem is that he had pain in the morning. Why? Because arthritic joints respond negatively to prolonged, static postures, especially sleeping. Just ask an older person how their arthritic low back, knee, or hip feels in the morning - probably terrible. They'll probably say they feel "really stiff." I've heard this from countless patients just today. If there is a labral tear, rehabilitation alone is rarely successful. Usually, arthroscopic surgery to either debride or repair the labrum and shave down the acetabular rim is performed. If it is arthritis, rehabilitation should provide some relief, though he will likely struggle with bouts of increased pain with periods of relief. ConclusionUntil we hear otherwise, we have to take their word for it: hip inflammation. The more important question, as always: Where did the inflammation come from? That's what Mariners fans—and fantasy managers—want to know. Send all injury-related questions or comments to The myth of avoiding “pitcher risk”Posted by Derek Carty at 4:03amI've gotten a couple of e-mails from readers and read a few articles at other sites talking about how the current state of some elite starting pitchers goes to show why taking pitchers early is a bad choice. There are several flaws with this logic, though. The comments from these sources have talked about the injury struggles of Erik Bedard, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, and Pedro Martinez; C.C. Sabathia's poor start and disconcerting control; and Rich Hill's waning job security, among other things. They then go on to say how this inherent risk with starting pitchers makes it a poor idea to take them early during a draft, how they are just too "risky." If you own (or have ever owned) a pitcher like this, hopefully the following explanation will give you some peace of mind. VacuumThe first point I'd like to make is that often these comments are made whilst looking into a vacuum. You have to look at it in the context of the strategy each particular team is trying to employ. I understand that fantasy articles can't possibly be geared towards every possible strategy every possible reader used, so looking at it in a vacuum is more acceptable in this case. But still, there are plenty of times when taking pitchers early is essential to the strategy used. When projecting players before the season, there are several things that need to be taken into account. You have things like talent, regression, and age, but you also must account for an array of possible outcomes. I've talked about this before in an article entitled the "Probabilistic concept of value". Projections and riskThink about PECOTA. PECOTA gives projections based on percentiles. A player's 10th percentile projection is basically the worst you should expect the player to perform. The 90th percentile projection is the best you should expect. The 50th percentile projection is the average expected performance, which is used in the same way that standard projections given by other sites and services are. While this is the average performance, it is certainly not the only possibility. When creating a projection, all possibilities must be accounted for. They are then compressed into a single line, sometimes a single number, that many owners use to make selections on draft day. During the course of making these projections for pitchers, one must consider the risk factor. One must consider the risk of being injured, the risk of getting unlucky/lucky (which is higher for pitchers), and the risk of Lou Piniella—early favorite for the "Dumbest Personnel Decision Made by a Manager" (for those wondering, Charlie Manuel won last year for sending Brett Myers to the bullpen)—deciding that, despite the fact you're the best pitcher on the team, he might replace you with Jon Lieber. Okay, maybe that last one isn't as obvious to account for, but the point remains. The high variability of pitcher performance is taken into account when making the original projection. Therefore, there is no need to make further deductions in value on draft day. If your draft board says that a pitcher is a fourth-round talent, don't be afraid to choose him simply because he's a pitcher (if it meshes with your strategy). My draft day approach to elite pitchingGranted, I don't take normally take pitchers for at least the first three rounds, but that's not because certain pitchers aren't worth it. Over the long-run, you will receive just as much production and value choosing a first-round pitcher than you would a first-round hitter, holding all else constant. My choice not to is related to the variability of pitcher projections, though. I am willing to sacrifice just a little bit of value in the first few rounds in order to secure hitters who have solid skill sets, a clean bill of health, and are consistent, elite producers. I will do just a tiny bit worse over the long-term, but I will also be competitive far more often. If a first-round pitcher busts, it can be nearly impossible to make up that value in a very competitive league. A fifth or sixth round pitcher, maybe a Sabathia or Beckett, I would have no problem taking. I already have the core of my team and here, if the value is good and it fits with what I'm trying to accomplish, taking a pitcher is a fine move. Even if they bust, the hole you're put in isn't insurmountable. The risk involved is irrelevant at this point, in my opinion. We've already taken it into consideration with the original projection, and a bust of a sixth-round pick is possible to replace. You'll often find a handful of waiver wire pitchers each year (or ones taken from round 15 or so on) who could put up close to that production, maybe better. This isn't to say that we should be completely inflexible early, though. If Johan Santana is somehow still sitting there in the third round, I'm taking him. At this point, I think the value Santana presents outweighs the value and consistency I can get from a third-round caliber hitter. I'll then use my fourth round pick on a reliable hitter. When disaster strikesIf you are an Erik Bedard owner—who Chris Neault feels could be on the verge of a more serious injury than the Mariners are letting on—your decision to draft him wasn't a bad one. I know you may feel bad now, having perhaps your third or fourth round pick injured like this, but it wasn't a bad choice. Okay, maybe prospective Bedard owners could have watched some tape and picked up on what Chris talked about in his article, but we all don't have the knowledge he does about such things. With the information you had, if you saw Bedard as a legitimate third-round value, the choice to take him was not a bad one. It didn't work out, but that's just the way things go. Pitchers will get injured, but in the long-run, it will work out as it is supposed to. As long as you're decision making process was logical, the results really don't matter. Making the right decision is all you can do. If you start second-guessing yourself, you may make the wrong decisions in the future. When you make the wrong decision, guess what? You're going to be wrong far more often than you would be if you made the right decision! Concluding thoughtsHopefully this is of some recourse to owners of guys like Bedard or Lackey and an enlightening perspective to those who don't own such guys. If you have any questions or need anything clarified, please feel free to send me an e-mail. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. For more cutting-edge fantasy baseball coverage, sign up for Rotoworld's premium service | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
