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Sunday, April 20, 2008Waiver Wire: National League (Week 3)Posted by Derek Carty at 4:59pmA quick note before we get going. Frank Thomas was released by the Blue Jays today. If he latches on with another team in a full-time role — a decent possibility — his fantasy value would pick right back up. If his owner jumped the gun and ditched him, I would pick him up. He is capable of hitting .270 with 30 home runs. National LeagueManny Acosta | ATL | CL - With Soriano and Peter Moylan on the DL, Acosta is the closer in Atlanta. He has control problems and will likely be replaced when Soriano comes off the DL on Tuesday, so he isn't more than a one or two day pickup. Until then, though, he's worth owning in all leagues. Afterwards, those in deeper leagues can hang onto him in case Soriano struggles upon returning or gets injured again. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Rafael Soriano | ATL | CL - Likely coming off the DL on Tuesday and will probably take over the closer's role immediately. Hopefully he wasn't dropped in your league, but if he was, grab him now. Recommendation - Should be owned in all leagues. Doug Brocail | HOU | RP - There's been talk of Brocail taking over with Jose Valverde "struggling," but this seems unlikely. Valverde has great skills and is just getting unlucky. Brocail doesn't have very good skills and wouldn't make a good closer. The only concern is that the Astros aren't the most intelligently run club. Still, I'm not adding Brocail unless I'm in a deep league where all the other viable speculatory picks are taken. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Max Scherzer | ARZ | SP - Getting hype around the blogosphere, but I'm not completely sold on Scherzer. His 15.35 K/9 and 1.59 BB/9 in three minor league starts thus far is obviously fantastic, but consider that he topped out in Double-A last year and struggled with his control. His 9.29 K/9 was good, but his 4.89 BB/9 was not. It's too early to say he's turned a corner, but he certainly has potential and makes a decent pick in deeper leagues. The problem now is that Doug Davis is aiming for a May 9 return, Randy Johnson is back, and Micah Owings is pitching very well. It would take an injury or for Owings to pitch poorly for a spot to open up. An injury is possible for anyone, and it's a distinct possibility for RJ, but Owings is the only pitcher who could legitimately lose his job due to talent. I don't see Brandon Webb and Dan Haren losing their jobs, and Doug Davis makes $7.75 million this year and $8.75 million next year, making a release improbable. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Micah Owings | ARZ | SP - Owings was very boring last year with a 6.25 K/9, 2.95 BB/9, and 37% ground ball rate. This year, he's come on very strong with a 8.69 K/9 and 2.29 BB/9 through three starts. Small sample size, but this isn't completely out of nowhere. In 74 Double-A innings in 2006, Owings posted a 8.35 K/9 and 2.06 BB/9. I definitely see some regression taking place given his 2006 Triple-A numbers and 2007 MLB numbers, but Owings still might have some mixed league value this year. If you have an open bench spot in shallower leagues, there are worse guys to speculate on. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Hong-Chi Kuo | LAD | SP - Kuo has always been able to strike out batters; his problems have come from his below-average (though not awful) walk rates and his health issues. Taking over for Esteban Loaizia, he could be a decent pickup in NL-only leagues. The control is still a problem, but Kuo is 26 now and entering his prime. Interesting guy to watch. Recommendation - Should only be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Wandy Rodriguez | HOU | SP - Wandy has displayed good skills in the past and started this year very strong, but he's now hit the DL. If he was dropped, or was never picked up to begin with, he might be worth stashing. Recommendation - Should only be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Randy Wolf | SD | SP - Fly ball pitcher, but PETCO should help that. He struck out over 8 batters per game last year and is doing so already this year, but that could come down closer to his career 7.52 mark. Control is right on par with his career at 3.32. Getting lucky so far, but he has decent skills. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. Conor Jackson | ARZ | 1B - We're still in small sample size territory, but Jackson is looking good so far. Batting average is being driven by 94% contact rate that has been 87% over his career and .326 BABIP that has been .299 over his career. He'll be 26 in a couple weeks and should be entering his prime, but these will probably regress a little. He showed great raw power in 2006, regressed in 2007, and is now showing flashes of that power again. His fly ball rate (49%) is higher than it was the past two years (43% and 41%), but even at 43%, he could hit 25 home runs. He could also be good for a .300 batting average, and Arizona's lineup, his power, and high walk rates should help with RBIs and runs. Very good pickup here with some upside. Recommendation - Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Mike Jacobs | FLA | 1B - Jacobs has six home runs so far, but his power really doesn't seem to be evolving, looking at his HitTracker profile. It's still pretty good, but this spike appears to be artificially inflated. The FB% is up to 50% when it was 40% in 2006 and 46% in 2007 (making growth possible, but we're still at too small a sample size to make that judgment), and the HR/FB is at 24%, up from 13% and 11% in 2006 and 2007. The batting average is being driven by a too-high .341 BABIP. Expect more along the lines of .270 batting average, 25 home run production. Recommendation - Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow NL-only leagues. Andy LaRoche | LAD | 3B - Will be back in early May. Nomar Garciaparra is back already, but there's still a chance LaRoche will overtake him. If he doesn't immediately, I'd have to think he will before the All-Star break. Worth a pickup in certain leagues or if you have a spare bench spot to speculate with. Recommendation - Should be owned in deep mixed leagues. Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team NL-only leagues. Khalil Greene | SD | SS - Greene is doing nothing differently than he did in 2007 besides hitting more fly balls and line drives and fewer ground balls (good things). He also hasn't hit a homer yet, but we're three weeks into the season. Don't be dropping a guy who hit 27 last year. In the Pizza Cutter article we linked to yesterday, we showed that home run rate doesn't stabilize until 300 plate appearances. Greene is at 75 so far. He should be fine. Recommendation - Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all NL-only leagues. Mark DeRosa | CHC | MI/CI/OF - Batting average being driven by inflated power. 49% fly ball rate is much higher than it has been before and should regress. 13% HR/FB is too high, given the lack of raw power his HitTracker profile shows. Don't change preseason expectations. Expect .290 average, 10-12 home runs production going forward. Recommendation - Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team NL-only leagues. John Bowker | SF | OF - Bowker is somewhat interesting, but not really worth an add. In Double-A last year: 80% contact rate, 17% HR/FB, 29% OF FB%, .348 BABIP, 22% LD%. Not bad, although the lack of fly ball limits his power potential. Plus, this was all in Double-A. He won't help with steals, won't play everyday, and really won't excel anywhere. You're really only looking at a .260 or so batting average with maybe ten homers. NL-only material. Recommendation - Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 14-team NL-only leagues. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Waiver Wire: American League (Week 3)Posted by Derek Carty at 8:01amHere's this week's Waiver Wire for the American League. Before you read this, I highly recommend checking out this post (if you haven't already), because it gives great insight into early season numbers. American LeagueAnybody who has been dropped who you deemed draftable on Draft Day: A repeat of last week. Numbers from the first three weeks of the season mean very little and should be taken with a grain of salt. We're dealing with sample sizes that are just too small to be significant. Recommendation - Should be owned in your league. Rafael Betancourt | CLE | CL: I'm sure that if he wasn't drafted, he's already gone in your league following the news that Joe Borowski would head to the DL, but if he's somehow still hanging around with the likes of Ramón Santiago and Kevin Cash, go get him. He should be a top 10 closer—possibly top five— immediately and could easily hold onto the role once Borowski returns. Recommendation:Should be owned in all leagues. Cliff Lee | CLE | SP: We're still in small sample size territory, but Lee's 0.40 ERA is being (partially) fueled by improved skills: 7.9 K/9, 0.8 BB/9, and 47percent ground ball rate. It's entirely possible, maybe probable, that he'll regress (the walks are a certainty), so it would be a bad idea to drop just about anyone you actually drafted for him, but he's worth a flier if you have an vacant bench spot, just in case he pans out. Recommendation:Can be considered in deep 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. Greg Smith | OAK | SP: Smith is interesting in that his peripherals have been all over the place (the two numbers given are K/9 and BB/9). 2006/A+: 7.23/3.16 2006/AA: 5.70/3.45 2007/AA: 8.01/1.81 2007/AAA: 5.85/3.10 It looks like he might have adjustment problems when promoted to a new level, and he never got the opportunity to adjust to Triple-A. His 6.23 K/9 and 4.15 BB/9 through two major league starts seem to echo this. He was very good in Double-A last year, but he hasn't had a ground ball rate above 42 percent since Advanced-A. He has potential, but he might not be the best bet for this year. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Can be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Andy Sonnanstine | TB | SP: Despite a rocky start to the year, I'm still buying on Sonnanstine, and Saturday night's complete game shutout helps my case. He continues to exhibit excellent control, although his strikeout rate is down from last year. It's still early, though, and I would still put money on a league average rate. His 55 percent ground ball rate has been a nice surprise, although that's probably a small sample size issue. My recommendation remains the same. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Edwin Jackson | TB | SP: I wrote about Jackson before, but I liked this quote from him: "Same preparation, same routine. It's just now there's different results." That should quiet anyone who says Jackson has made adjustments, and those "different results" are a matter of a .202 BABIP, 77% LOB percentage, and 4.8 percent HR/FB. Nothing personal, I'm sure he's a great guy, but he's getting lucky. Recommendation: Should not be owned in mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team AL-only leagues. Carlos Silva | MIN | SP: Why is Carlos Silva getting added? He's doing nothing different than he's ever done. Very low strikeout rate, even lower walk rate, decent ground ball rate. He does have a .253 BABIP and 84 percent LOB rate that are fooling people. If he wasn't draftable in your league, don't add him now. He's the exact same guy. Recommendation: Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be owned in deep AL-only leagues. Has a little more value in 4x4 leagues. Armando Galarraga | DET | SP: Galarraga had a great first start with six strikeouts and no walks in six innings. He struggled a bit in 24.2 Triple-A innings last year, but in 127.2 in Double-A, he posted an 8.04 K/9 and 3.31 BB/9. He shouldn't be expected to continue pitching as he did in his debut, but a league average strikeout rate is pretty likely. The walks might do him in, but if kept down, he could be a decent major league hurler. He'll probably be sent down after Dontrelle Willis returns, but given the shaky Detroit pitching staff, could get called back up at some point. Recommendation: Should be avoided mixed leagues. Can be stashed in deep AL-only leagues. Luke Hochevar | KC | SP: The Royals recalled him last week, and he might be more of a long-term option than Galarraga. He'll make at least a couple of starts in place of John Bale, and he could stick in the rotation if he does well. Reasons for optimism: 9.00 K/9 and 2.49 BB/9 in 94 Double-A innings last year. Reasons for concern: 6.83 K/9 and 3.26 BB/9 in 58 Triple-A innings last year and a 6.23 K/9 and 3.12 BB/9 in 17.1 Triple-A innings this year. Minor League Splits has his GB rate as 40 percent while First Inning has it as 63 percent. How does that happen? Hochevar will be interesting to watch, but I have my doubts that he'll be good. Recommendation: Should be avoided mixed leagues. Should be considered in 12-team and owned in 14-team deep AL-only leagues. Dan Johnson | TB | 1B: The move out of Oakland helps Johnson's value (he had just one AB so far this year!), but Carlos Pena is at first for Tampa Bay. Johnson does figure to see some at-bats at DH. While he has decent power and an above-average contact rate, his major league BABIP history isn't very good and he hasn't hit over 18 percent line drives in two years. He might be good for a .260 batting average or so with maybe 12-15 home runs, depending on playing time. RBIs and runs should come when he plays given his decent power, good lineup and great walk rates. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be strongly considered in deep 12-team and owned in deep 14-team AL-only leagues. Michael Cuddyer | MIN | OF: Owned in just 52% of ESPN, Cuddyer should be coming back from injury soon. He has pretty good raw power, as evidenced by his HitTracker profile, although he doesn't hit a ton of fly balls. He could hit .280+ with 20 home runs. He should resume batting third, making him a good bet for RBIs and runs as well. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Frank Thomas | TOR | DH: I'm kind of at a loss when it comes to Thomas now. I loved him coming into the season, mostly because he has such a solid, consistent skill set despite his advanced age. He'll be 40 this year and still hits the ball farther than most other players in baseball. While he started the year off hot, he has cooled off, and now the Jays are benching him. Ridiculous. Some think it could be to limit his plate appearances so his option doesn't kick in next year, which makes plenty of sense given the abruptness and absurdity of this move. If this is the case, Thomas loses a ton of value. If not, he could be a steal of waiver wire pickup. Take this recommendation lightly; you really need to decide what you think of him. For what it's worth, I'm hanging onto him in a 10-team mixed league, for now anyway. Recommendation: Should be considered in 10 and 12-team and owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in 10-team AL-only leagues. C.C. Sabathia | CLE | SP: If you're in a league with guys like this where Sabathia is allowed to be dropped, please go get him. Yes, the walks are troublesome, and there is cause for concern, but the potential for him to bounce back is too great to leave him unowned. Be sure to read this and this about Sabathia, though, before you go trading for him. There might be a problem here, but as noted earlier, a pitcher's walk rate is prone to pretty big fluctuations up until 550 batters faced. Sabathia is currently at 99. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Curtis Granderson | DET | OF: Almost certainly owned in your league, but if his owner dropped him and no one picked him up, go get him. Not my favorite player, but definitely has value in all league and should be coming back this week. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. J.J. Putz | SEA | CL: Same deal as Granderson. If you're in a league where guys like this are being dropped, and you take the game seriously enough to be reading the Hardball Times, you might want to consider finding a more competitive league. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Concluding thoughtsSorry this is coming so late in the weekend. I'm going to aim for American League on Fridays and National League on Saturdays this season, although that might be difficult for the next couple of weeks. After that, though, I might even try to have them both ready for Friday. We'll see how things go. Also, I hope these will become a little more comprehensive over the next couple of weeks. Look for this week's National League later today. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Saturday, April 19, 2008When do stats become meaningful?Posted by Derek Carty at 11:01pmPizza Cutter over at Most Valuable Network's Statistically Speaking penned two articles this off-season regarding small sample sizes and when statistics start to become meanigful. Hat tip to Brock for Broglio for pointing this out. What Pizza Cutter does is find out at which point the r-squared for different statistics reaches the .50 barrier, the point at which the majority of the variation of a stat is predictable. The articles are long, but I definitely recommend taking the time to read them. Here is the article about hitters, and here is the article about pitchers. Here is a list of the stats that have fantasy baseball implications, although by reading the articles you can get a better feeling for what this all means and just how stable these stats are at the given number of plate appearances/batters faced. HittersStrikeout rate/Contact rate*: 150 PA LD%: 150 PA Walk rate: 200 PA GB%: 200 PA GB/FB: 200 PA FB%: 250 PA Home run rate: 300 PA HR/FB: 300 PA BABIP: Doesn't reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below. Batting average: Doesn't reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below. Pizza Cutter guesses it would at around 1000 PA. *Note: Pizza Cutter also lists a stat called "contact rate," which stabilizes at 100 PA, but this is different than the contact rate that we use. I believe this refers to contact rate on a per-pitch basis as opposed to a per-at-bat basis. PitchersK/PA: 150 BF GB%: 150 BF LD%: 150 BF FB%: 200 BF GB/FB: 200 BF K/BB: 500 BF IF FB%: 500 BF BB/PA: 550 BF BABIP: Doesn't reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below. HR/FB: Doesn't reach a 0.50 r-squared at 650 or below. Concluding thoughtsI think this should help put early season stats into perspective. No batter has reached even 150 plate appearances yet, and no pitcher has faced 150 batters yet. So please relax, take a deep breath, and realize that even though April is 3/4 over, sample sizes are still too small to start making decisions based off of them. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. 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