|
July 20, 2008
 Plus our Statistical Definitions Who's Hot, via First InningThe Player Development SiteJoba Chamberlain (NY Yankees) 28 K in last 22 IP John Danks (Chi White Sox) 25 K in last 22 IP Troy Glaus (St. Louis) 4 HR and 4 2B in last 20 AB Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) 21 K in last 20 IP Mike Pelfrey (NY Mets) 1 run allowed in last 22 IP Recent Comments at BallhypeTrade strategy: Propaganda and Paul DePodesta’s recent example 2 recent comments
Or you can search by:
StubHub is where fans buy and sell Yankees Tickets, Red Sox Tickets, White Sox Tickets, Mets Tickets and all other baseball tickets. If you are looking for World Series Tickets, ALCS Tickets or NLCS Tickets, you can find them at StubHub! More hot selling tickets include: Cubs Tickets, Astros Tickets, Dodgers Tickets, Angels Tickets and Detroit Tigers Tickets. Gear up for baseball season with Chicago White Sox tickets and New York Yankees tickets. LA Angels tickets, Houston Astros tickets, and Atlanta Braves tickets are hot sellers! You can get Boston Red Sox tickets, San Diego Padres tickets or Chicago Cubs tickets for your favorite baseball fan. Coast to Coast Tickets has the best MLB tickets like Minnesota Twins tickets, LA Dodgers tickets, Milwaukee Brewers tickets, New York Met tickets and St. Louis Cardinals tickets. Monthly Archives
July, 2008
June, 2008 May, 2008 April, 2008 March, 2008 February, 2008 January, 2008 December, 2007 November, 2007 October, 2007 September, 2007 August, 2007 July, 2007 June, 2007 May, 2007 Got a question or comment for one of our writers? Send it in to our weekly mailbag. Or just contact the site administrator with your comments. 
All content on this site (including text, graphs, and any other original works), unless otherwise noted, is licensed under a
Creative Commons
License.
|
Most Recent Posts
Tuesday, April 29, 2008Player spotlight: Ryan TheriotPosted by Derek Carty at 11:11amI know Ryan Theriot is sort of a random guy to spotlight, but I realized Sunday while writing the National League Waiver Wire that there is a lot to be said about Theriot. Perhaps not great as a real-life baseball player, he is a pretty good fantasy player. The real reason I like Theriot, though, is because he understands his skills and his limitations and he uses the skills he does possess optimally. Whether this is a concentrated effort can be argued, but it makes for an interesting player analysis. PowerYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB HR AB/HR AB/XBH FB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 1 330 18 --- 2005 25 AA SL 448 1 448 14 --- 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 0 INF 18 --- 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 3 45 8 24% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 3 179 15 31% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 1 89 11 24% As you probably knew before viewing this table, Theriot doesn't have much power. He barely has any. The only reason those AB/XBH figures look somewhat decent is because his speed allows him to get extra doubles and triples. Notice that final column, though. Theriot doesn't have much raw power, and he doesn't try to force it by hitting a lot of fly balls. Contact hittingYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB CT BABIP LD% GB% BB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 87% 0.311 --- --- 13% 2005 25 AA SL 448 92% 0.330 --- --- 9% 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 88% 0.346 --- --- 9% 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 87% 0.363 27% 50% 11% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 91% 0.289 21% 49% 8% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 88% 0.364 28% 48% 11% While Theriot lacks power, his contact rates are always very good and he has a very good history of BABIPs. He manages to keep them good because he doesn't try to be something he isn't. He isn't a power hitter, so he hits very few fly balls. Instead, he hits a lot of line drives—the most likely batted ball type to fall for a hit—and ground balls. Ground balls are more likely than fly balls to become hits to begin with, and Theriot can use his speed to beat out even more of them. Stolen BasesYEAR AGE LEVEL LEAGUE AB SBA SBO% SBA% SB% 2004 24 A+ FSL 330 24 0.323 20% 54% 2005 25 AA Sou 448 34 0.302 23% 71% 2006 26 AAA PCL 280 17 0.317 17% 82% 2006 26 MLB MLB 134 15 0.301 33% 87% 2007 27 MLB MLB 537 32 0.268 20% 88% 2008 28 MLB MLB 89 11 0.317 34% 55% For fantasy purposes, Theriot derives a lot of value from his stolen bases. He was successful at a good clip in 2006 and 2007 at Triple-A and in the majors and has constantly attempted them at a high rate. So far this year, though, his success rate is at an abysmal 55 percent. This not only poses the problem of him actually getting caught (and therefore not getting a steal for his fantasy owners), but the more he gets caught, the more likely it becomes he will not be allowed to run as much. While this is a concern, I'm not too worried. First, his current 34 percent attempt percentage is the highest of his career at any level. It's possible all he'll need to do is be more selective and the success rate will go back up. It's also possible this is just a sample size issue. Furthermore, his manager is Lou Piniella. If we look at his page in the 2008 Bill James Handbook, we see that Piniella's teams led the league in stolen base attempts in both 2001 and 2002, and in 2005, actually attempted more than in 2002. Last year, his Cubs were in the bottom-half of the league, but from 1998 to 2005 he always seemed to let his guys run, so I don't think we should be too concerned about him holding Theriot back. I do think Theriot's attempt percentage will drop—as it probably should—and Theriot will be fine. ExpectationsGiven 600 plate appearances, a 9 percent walk rate, an 89 percent contact rate, a .310 BABIP, a 4 percent HR/FB ratio, and a 25 percent fly ball rate (I know, a lot of components), Ryan Theriot would hit .282. He would also manage to hit five home runs, although that could easily be just two with a lower HR/FB. Given the prior assumptions, a 25 percent stolen base attempt rate, and an 85 percent success rate, Theriot would steal 35 bases. Not bad at all. Factor in that he is batting second—ahead of Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Kosuke Fukudome—with an above-average walk rate and good speed, and he should score plenty of runs. He also has a little bit of upside. If he continues hitting this many line drives and his BABIP stays above .330 or so the entire year (it has in the past), the batting average would go above .300. Also, if he keeps attempting steals at this rate and starts succeeding at his old rate, he could approach 50 steals. Concluding thoughtsOverall, Theriot has limitations, but he maximizes the skills that he has. He focuses on his contact hitting, patience and speed, which makes him a pretty valuable fantasy player. As I said on Sunday, Theriot should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues and all NL-only leagues. If you have any questions, feel free to let me know. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. For more cutting-edge fantasy baseball coverage, sign up for Rotoworld's premium service | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
