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Saturday, May 10, 2008The save speculator: Milwaukee Brewers revisitedPosted by Derek Carty at 10:20pmAt the beginning of the week, we discussed the Brewers' closer situation after Eric Gagne blew his fifth save of the year. Saturday night, in his first appearance since then, he blew a tie game in the ninth as the Brewers lost 6-5. Let's first look at some of the postgame quotes to see if we can discern whether he'll keep the job. Tonight's quotesRead some of the things Gagne said after tonight's game and let me know what they remind you of. I don’t deserve that ninth inning right now. It’s pretty simple. Hmm... sounds a lot like Jason Isringhausen Friday night, doesn't it? It's obviously not the same situation and needs to be analyzed independently, but anytime the closer is down on himself like this, saying he doesn't deserve the job, there is a good chance he will be removed, if only temporarily. Just based on my own observations, it seems a lot of managers think the ninth inning adds extra pressure and can affect a pitcher's performance. Maybe it does, maybe it doesn't, but I'd have to think Ned Yost doesn't want a guy finishing games who doesn't believe in himself. It should be noted that after the fifth blown save earlier in the week, Yost had this to say: This is a guy who has had a lot of success in this role. You allow him the time to work through it. Will he get on a roll? Yeah. He hasn't been on top of his game, and he’s still at the top of the league in saves. When he gets on his game, he's going to run off 15, 20, 25 of them in a row. You can't do it if you start panicking on the guy and start talking about not letting him close anymore. After his fifth blown save, Yost didn't say anything after the game and waited two days before issuing this statement. Tonight, he did have a quote after the game, and it was significantly different than his last one. I don’t sit here and make decisions five minutes after a tough loss. I’ll sit and think. You guys have known me long enough, I take a long time to analyze things and give everybody the benefit of the doubt and try to make the right decision. Also, after the last blown save, General Manager Doug Melvin had this to say: There's no magic number (of blown saves). If they are consecutive, that's when you get worried. ... You stay with a closer as long as you can. If a hitter slumps for six weeks, you stay with him. Closers go in slumps, too. You give him the benefit of the doubt for now. Well, tonight wasn't technically a consecutive blown save, but it's pretty much the same thing, right? So will he keep the job?My guess, right now, is no. A manager simply can't have a closer with a mentality like Gagne currently has and allow him to continue closing. Yost knows this, and I think after talking to Gagne, a change will be made. Even if he is given the job back in a couple of weeks, I think we'll see something soon about Gagne being removed. Prior conclusionsIf Gagne is removed, here are the things we discovered last time about his potential replacements: Reasons for Guillermo Mota: 1) Highest Leverage Index 2) Used late in the game more often than the other two 3) Used for multiple innings the least often 4) Comparable skills to Salomon Torres and better skills than David Riske 5) Lowest ERA of the group Reasons for Salomon Torres: 1) Best skills (though not by much compared to Mota) 2) Given Gagne's homer troubles, Torres' low fly ball rates might look appealing 3) Mota's high walk rate might push Torres past him (new addition to the list) 4) Most prior success closing games among the three candidates (although he wasn't that good) Reasons for David Riske: 1) Was considered Gagne's primary insurance early in the season (so was Turnbow, though) Concluding thoughtsIf you need saves and Mota or Torres are still available, or were dropped after things settled down during the week, now is the time to pick them up. My choice would be Mota first. Even if you only hold them for a day or two, it is a pretty good percentage play right now. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. The save speculator: St. Louis CardinalsPosted by Derek Carty at 3:11pmWe're gonna shorten this "Save speculator" since the decision actually came down while I was in the process of writing this article. Jason Isringhausen is being temporarily removed from the Cardinals' closer role, as one could have surmised from his quote last night (hat tip to Andy Behrens at Yahoo!): I’m just getting sick of embarrassing myself and letting my team down ... We should be five more wins in the win column in my mind, so we should be ahead in first place even more. But they can’t keep sending me out there when I’m pitching the way I’m pitching ... We’re going to have to figure out some kind of remedy. I’m sure that remedy will give me some time off and get somebody in there that can do a better job right now. Later, when Tony LaRussa was asked about the situation, he had this to say: Let me ask you something. Do you think it’d be fair to talk to you about it or talk among ourselves and talk to him first? You think you got any chance to get an answer to that question? The fact that LaRussa didn't deny that he was considering it and that he said he would "talk to him," in conjunction with the quote from Izzy himself led us to believe a change could be coming. Sure enough, today it was announced that Izzy is out. From LaRussa: He's not hurting, he's just pressing and lost his confidence. You go back to the drawing board a little bit on his delivery so he can locate better, and you give him some appearances and hopefully he gets people out and his confidence goes back up. From Izzy: It needed to be done. It's a mental break more than anything. SuccessorRyan Franklin should be added in all leagues immediately. It's a near certainty Isringhausen will not be back closing for the next couple of weeks, at minimum, and it could be a month before he returns. Franklin has been Izzy's setup man for quite a while now and had a 1.74 gmLI this year. His skills really aren't very good, and he's on the decline at 35-years old. Saves are saves, though. Here are his skills since the 2006, the year he transitioned into the bullpen: YEAR IP K/9 BB/9 GB% 2006 66 5.00 3.84 47% 2007 69 4.95 1.24 48 2008 19 4.00 3.00 33 Obviously not very good. His 2007 BB/9 was a career best and looks a little anomalous, although his 2006 BB/9 was also a career high. A K/9 in the mid-to-high 4.00s and a BB/9 in the high 2.00s is probably what should be expected going forward. His ground ball rate since 2002 is 38 percent, although many of those innings were as a starter, so it definitely could bounce back to 2006 and 2007 levels. Franklin isn't someone to drool over, but if you need saves (as I'm sure many of you do), pick him up. I grabbed him in three leagues this morning. Keep an eye onIf Izzy ends up being out for more than a couple of weeks and Franklin struggles (as there is a good possibility of), keep an eye on Kyle McClellan. He currently sports a 1.71 gmLI and has the skills to be an effective closer. YEAR LEVEL IP K/9 BB/9 GB% 2007 A+ 29 7.45 1.24 54% 2007 AA 30.2 8.80 1.76 58% 2008 MLB 18.2 7.71 1.45 53% Could be a successful long-term for the Cards if given the opportunity. Might be a good guy to grab in keeper leagues as well since Izzy's contract expires at the end of the year. Decent speculative add, although LaRussa could just as easily turn to a veteran like Randy Flores (1.82 gmLI) or Russ Springer (0.63 gmLI) if Franklin struggles. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. Waiver Wire: American League (Week 6)Posted by Derek Carty at 7:38amBefore we get started, I wanted to clarify something I might not have explained thoroughly enough yet. When talking about a player's production, I'll often say something to the effect of "he could hit .270 with 20 home runs and 20 steals given 500 at-bats." This is not my way of saying that I think this player will receive 500 at-bats going forward. I might say this about a platoon player who may get only 200. I do this because it is a fool's errand to try to predict an exact number of at-bats that a player will receive. Plus, it would be changing every week and there would be little week-to-week consistency in this regard. Instead, I give a baseline number (usually 500 at-bats or 550 or 600 plate appearances) that can be used for comparative purposes. I think this gives an indication of a player's skills that can be compared to other players on the list each week. Feel free to scale these numbers to the number of actual at-bats or plate appearances you think a player will get. Around midseason, I might switch up the traditional baseline to 250 at-bats or something like that, so at least we're in the ballpark of the number of at-bats an average starter might receive. That being said, let's look at this week's American League pickups! American LeagueVicente Padilla | TEX | SP: The 5.86 K/9 and 3.20 BB/9 make Padilla an automatic "no" for most leagues. His ERA is being inflated by an unsustainable 80 percent LOB rate. Stay far away. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Scott Kazmir | TB | SP: This one should be pretty obvious, but Kazmir is No. 2 on CBS' "Most Added Players" list. If he's available in your league, get him. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Gavin Floyd | CHW | SP: Floyd took a no-hitter into the ninth this week, but I still won't be buying. He's a slight fly ball pitcher in a hitters' park and is walking (4.08 per nine) almost as many batters as he is striking out (4.31 per nine). Yeah, he's doing good with not allowing hits, but do you honestly think he—or anyone else for that matter—can sustain a .147 BABIP? The answer is a resounding "no." Throw in a lucky 6.3 percent HR/FB for good measure. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Garrett Olson | BAL | SP: I talked about Olson last week, and now he's getting picked up in droves. My opinion remains the same. Good pitcher, has the upside to potentially have some value in shallower leagues than those listed. Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but the shallowest AL-only leagues. Sidney Ponson | TEX | SP: Ponson has poor skills and probably will likely be sent down once Jason Jennings and Luis Mendoza get healthy. Not a guy you want to buy into, although his current 1.77 BB/9 and 58 percent ground ball rate are good. He still strikes out very few batters and has never shown this kind of control before (not even in Triple-A to start the year), so it's kind of ridiculous to assume he'll continue after three starts. Stay away. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues, for now. Aaron Laffey | CLE | SP: Laffey will stay on until Jake Westbrook returns from injury and might be worth a pickup in some leagues. He is an extreme ground ball pitcher with good control and could approach a league-average strikeout rate. He won't dominate, but he'll be a solid pitcher on a good offensive team, even if the Indians aren't exactly playing like one now. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now. Jon Lester | BOS | SP: On a different team, Lester isn't considered as good a pitcher as he currently is. His skills just aren't there. Career 40 percent ground ball rate to go with a 5.32 K/9 and 5.12 BB/9 this year. No thank you. He'll get some wins, but it won't be pretty. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Daniel Cabrera | BAL | SP: Cabrera loves to tempt fantasy owners. He'll look great one start and awful the next. He has four starts thus far with two or fewer walks, although his overall BB/9 is 4.05. His strikeout rate is also severely depressed this year at 5.74, and his 226 batters faced has surpassed the mark set by Pizza Cutter for statistical significance. This could come back up, but his ERA is currently being kept down by a .226 BABIP and 79 percent LOB rate. Some have suggested playing the matchups with him, but I wouldn't; he really is just too unpredictable. If you pick him up, just trot him out there each time he's on the mound and hope for the best. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Kevin Slowey | MIN | SP: Back from the DL, Slowey is a solid pickup. He has fantastic control and should post a roughly league average strikeout rate (though he might have the potential to do a bit better), so he's definitely worth owning if he's himself again. Only owned in 0.6 percent of ESPN leagues, so in deeper leagues he might actually be the best option available right now. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Kei Igawa | NYY | SP: Igawa is such an interesting guy. He struggled a bit in the majors last year (namely with his control, though his strikeout rate wasn't fantastic and his 14 percent HR/FB was unlucky) but excelled at Triple-A when he was demoted: 9.08 K/9 and 2.72 BB/9. His numbers were very similar to start 2008. Now he's been called up to the majors, and expectations seem to be pretty low. He is a fly ball pitcher, but I think he could be better than most give him credit for. Definitely worth speculating on. Recommendation: Should be owned in 12-team mixed leagues, for now. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues, for now. Darrell Rasner | NYY | SP: Probably not as good a pickup as Igawa, though he does seem to be getting more adds. I think Igawa left a lot of people with a bad taste in their mouths last year. Rasner didn't pitch much last year and was utterly ineffective when he did, but a 7.21 K/9 and 1.69 BB/9 in 58.2 Triple-A innings in 2006 show that he has promise. He put up nearly identical numbers in 31 Triple-A innings to start 2008. He is more of a ground ball pitcher than fly baller and could be mildly effective, if uninteresting. Recommendation: Should be strongly considered in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be considered in eight-team and owned in 10-team AL-only leagues, for now. Mike Napoli | TEX | C - We've discussed Napoli before, but his ownership in ESPN leagues is still just 36.6 percent and he's seeing some adds this week. He won't hit for a high batting average, but not a lot of catchers do, and he has great power to make up for it. Jeff Mathis is getting a little annoying, but Napoli has the skills to be a very good fantasy catcher. Recommendation: Should be owned in all leagues. Marco Scutaro | TOR | IF: With David Eckstein and John McDonald on the disabled list, Scutaro becomes the starting shortstop for the next couple of weeks. He's batting ninth, but he could hit .265 with just a little bit of power. Playing every day, in and of itself, gives him some value in AL-only leagues. Recommendation: Should be avoided in mixed leagues. Should be owned in 12-team AL-only leagues. Ben Francisco | CLE | OF: With Jason Michaels gone, Francisco only needs to worry about David Dellucci and Franklin Gutierrez for playing time. He'll likely split time with Dellucci. Francisco isn't particularly great at anything, but he is good at a lot of things. He puts up pretty good contact rates (83 percent and 86 percent in Triple-A in 2006 and 2007, though 73 percent in 92 at-bats this year) and walks a decent bit (8 percent and 9 percent). His Triple-A BABIPs have been both great (.361 in 2007) and mediocre (.297 in 2006) though he hits a good portion of line drives (20 percent and 22 percent). He has decent power, although perhaps his best trait is his speed. He has an overall Triple-A steals success rate of 79 percent and an attempt rate of 23 percent. In the majors, at least initially, expect maybe a .260-.265 batting average (though with the potential for much better) with 12 homers and 20 steals (assuming a baseline of 550 plate appearances). Recommendation: Should be owned in 14-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all but shallow AL-only leagues. Nick Swisher | CHW | OF: Swisher should not be getting dropped. The majority of his skills appear to be intact, and his .247 BABIP should improve. His fly ball rate (39 percent) is down from the previous two years (46 and 48 percent) as his line drive rate has increased to 23 percent from 18 percent last year. It's possible that, batting leadoff on a team managed by Ozzie Guillen, this was done intentionally. That would not be good for Swisher's fantasy value, but this is just conjecture and not drop-worthy. Also, he hasn't hit leadoff in five games because of his struggles, so batting lower in the order he might not start hitting fly balls again. Watch this, but he still needs to be owned. Recommendation: Should be owned in all but the shallowest leagues. Evan Longoria | TB | 3B: Longoria is getting dropped too. He's not playing poorly, although his contact rate is pretty low (as I said could happen) and his batting average is suffering. His power looks good enough (38 percent fly ball rate, 14 percent HR/FB, decent HitTracker profile), though, and with his potential, 80 at-bats is not nearly enough to warrant dropping him if you thought he was worth picking up in the first place. If you want to pick him up in shallower leagues than I have listed, he definitely could have value this year. Recommendation: Should be owned in 10-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. David DeJesus | KC | OF: His skills are mostly the same as they have been, although HitTracker shows that his raw power is looking better than last year. 13 percent HR/FB is likely too high, but at age 28, it's possible he has improved this part of his game. Over 500 at-bats, DeJesus could hit a dozen or so homers, swipe a handful of bags, and hit around .290. Hitting mostly leadoff with his solid speed and walk rates should allow him to score a bunch of runs. Recommendation: Should be considered in 10-team and owned in 12-team mixed leagues. Should be owned in all AL-only leagues. Derek Carty is a student in New Jersey who loves Fantasy Baseball. His articles can also be found at FOX Sports, and he'll be contributing content to Rotoworld in the coming season. He welcomes questions via e-mail. 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