Wednesday, June 03, 2009
2009 LIPS ERA Leaders
Posted by Derek Carty at 12:12pmHey guys,
David Gassko informed me that he's recently made some tweaks to the LIPS formula, so here are updated numbers to account for them. The list is pretty similar with a few changes.
LIPS ERA Top 25 (through 6/2/09)
+------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+ | LAST | FIRST | GS | IP | ERA | LIPS ERA | K/9 | BB/9 | xGB% | IF FB% | +------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+ | Greinke | Zack Z | 11 | 82.0 | 1.10 | 2.77 | 9.66 | 1.32 | 44.33 | 3.94 | | Santana | Johan | 11 | 72.0 | 2.00 | 2.83 | 11.13 | 2.63 | 32.79 | 11.48 | | Lincecum | Tim | 11 | 71.7 | 3.01 | 3.13 | 11.43 | 2.64 | 45.90 | 2.73 | | Vazquez | Javier | 11 | 70.3 | 3.58 | 3.16 | 11.00 | 2.05 | 45.30 | 3.87 | | Peavy | Jake | 12 | 74.7 | 4.10 | 3.20 | 10.13 | 3.13 | 40.64 | 4.28 | | Halladay | Roy | 12 | 91.0 | 2.77 | 3.26 | 8.11 | 1.19 | 55.94 | 2.68 | | Haren | Dan | 11 | 78.0 | 2.42 | 3.30 | 9.00 | 1.15 | 40.39 | 2.96 | | Verlander | Justin B | 11 | 69.3 | 3.63 | 3.36 | 11.68 | 2.60 | 31.58 | 2.92 | | Harden | Rich | 8 | 43.7 | 4.74 | 3.37 | 10.92 | 4.33 | 38.53 | 9.17 | | Weaver | Jered D | 10 | 68.7 | 2.36 | 3.40 | 6.95 | 2.36 | 33.16 | 7.65 | | Hamels | Cole | 9 | 48.3 | 5.21 | 3.42 | 9.31 | 1.86 | 43.48 | 2.90 | | Johnson | Randy | 10 | 52.0 | 5.71 | 3.63 | 9.35 | 3.29 | 46.21 | 3.45 | | Hernandez | Felix A | 11 | 71.3 | 3.41 | 3.67 | 9.08 | 2.52 | 49.76 | 2.44 | | Johnson | Josh | 11 | 74.3 | 2.66 | 3.68 | 7.75 | 2.18 | 54.98 | 2.84 | | Slowey | Kevin | 11 | 68.0 | 3.97 | 3.70 | 6.49 | 0.93 | 34.63 | 5.63 | | Jackson | Edwin | 11 | 74.3 | 2.30 | 3.74 | 6.90 | 2.18 | 36.28 | 6.05 | | Scherzer | Max M | 10 | 54.3 | 4.47 | 3.85 | 9.44 | 3.64 | 43.14 | 2.61 | | Oswalt | Roy | 12 | 69.3 | 4.28 | 3.91 | 7.14 | 2.47 | 41.23 | 5.69 | | Lester | Jon T | 11 | 65.3 | 5.65 | 3.92 | 10.19 | 3.31 | 45.16 | 2.15 | | Bedard | Erik | 10 | 60.7 | 2.37 | 3.92 | 9.05 | 2.67 | 41.72 | 4.29 | | Baker | Scott S | 9 | 52.7 | 6.32 | 3.94 | 6.66 | 1.71 | 29.07 | 8.14 | | de la Rosa | Jorge A | 10 | 54.7 | 5.43 | 3.97 | 9.38 | 4.28 | 43.92 | 4.05 | | Gallardo | Yovani | 10 | 65.0 | 3.18 | 3.98 | 9.00 | 3.32 | 43.68 | 2.30 | | Richmond | Scott | 9 | 54.0 | 3.50 | 3.99 | 7.33 | 3.00 | 41.25 | 4.38 | | Pavano | Carl | 11 | 63.0 | 5.29 | 4.01 | 7.14 | 1.86 | 46.23 | 3.52 | +------------+----------+----+------+------+----------+-------+------+-------+--------+
Also, there was a good comment that I think should be given more attention: "Does this mean I should pickup and stash Blanton and De La Rosa?" The answer is "No, not necessarily." What LIPS ERA gives us is a luck-neutral indication of how well a pitcher has performed so far this year. It is a much more solid indicator than ERA, but it is not the be-all-end-all. Just because Edwin Jackson has a 3.74 LIPS ERA right now does not mean he will post a 3.74 ERA going forward.
What we're looking at right now is a 65 (or so) inning sample of a player's true pitching ability. This sample is relatively small in the grand scheme of things and should not be the only thing considered. To better estimate a pitcher's true ability, we need to look at a larger sample — i.e. his performance in previous years. While LIPS ERA is much more stable than actual ERA, it is still prone to small sample size caveats.
As an example, let's say you go to a restaurant and have an awful meal. While the restaurant may truly be an awful one, we can't say for sure after one single meal. Maybe you go there another five times and have really good meals. The more times we go to the restaurant, the more accurate we will be when we talk about the overall quality of the restaurant. If we simply judged it by any single meal, though, the chances of being wrong would be relatively large.
If we roll a six-sided die twice and it lands on '3' both times, are we going to say that this die is more likely to land on '3' than any other number? Of course not. The sample we're basing this on is too small. If we roll that die another thousand times, I can assure you it will land on each number about evenly.
The same logic applies here. Right now in 2009, we're looking at one meal (or one die roll). For the guys on the list, it's a very good meal, but one meal nonetheless. It's certainly better than if it were a bad meal (or a bad LIPS ERA), but we still need more to go on before we make any definitive assertions. A lot can happen over 65 innings. For those who followed CAPS in the off-season, we see that a lot can happen with a pitcher's peripherals over the course of an entire season.
One thing to keep in mind is for leagues where you can stash players on your bench. In this case, even though Carl Pavano may not be a true 4.01 ERA pitcher, it might be worth holding onto him to see if he is. Maybe his true talent level has changed and we just don't know it yet because the 'meals' that will tell us this haven't happened yet — they'll be happening throughout the rest of the season.
Hopefully this helps put things into better perspective for everyone.
Derek Carty, 23, has also been published by NBC's Rotoworld, Sports Illustrated, FOX Sports, and USA Today. This season, he'll be contributing to FanDuel and will be linking to all of his work at DerekCarty.com. In his three years competing in expert leagues, he has won 2 titles with 4 top three finishes, including a LABR NL title in 2009, making him the youngest person to ever win a major expert league title. Derek is a proud graduate of the MLB Scouting Bureau's Scout Development Program and is a firm believer in the importance of combining stats and scouting. He welcomes questions via e-mail, Facebook, or Twitter.
Does this mean I should pickup and stash Blanton and De La Rosa?