bpasinko,
In short, yes, this table seems to suggest that those two are worth stashing. Of course, the transactions depend on various aspects like league format, player to be dropped, etc.

What this table essentially says is that Blanton and De La Rosa have both pitched better than what their current ERA’s seems to indicate. And in essence, a couple of the goals behind LIPS ERA are to paint clearer pictures of pitcher performances and to give us an idea of what we should expect in the future.

Need translations for: LIPS, xGB%, and IF FB%.  If someone’s gotta second to post ‘em, I’d like to be able to understand the scoring better.

Thanks.

Have a good Wednesday.

First, the list has been updated based on some recent tweaks David Gassko made.

bpasinko, I answered your first question in the article.  Very good question.

Blanton has fallen off the list now, and his LIPS ERA is now 4.16.  His FIP is 4.90 because FIP doesn’t account for HR/FB, which most pitchers have little control over.  Blanton’s is a very unlucky 16%, inflating his FIP.  FIP is actually one of my least favorite ERA estimators (along with ERC).  His xFIP is 4.09 (http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/player/4849/); I’m not sure where you’re seeing that it’s over 5.00.  If we want to look at even more ERA estimators (even though I prefer LIPS), QERA says 4.16 and xERA says 4.10.  So while LIPS was originally a little more optimistic, it wasn’t too far off, and now it’s right in line.

Andrew,
Thanks very much for the kind words.  I’m certainly very pleased with my performance so far in LABR, and it’s nice to get noticed.

Thanks!

Surprised not to see the following SP’s:

Sabathia
Billingsley
Wainwright
Shields
W Rodriguez
Lowe

“Also, there was a good comment that I think should be given more attention: “Does this mean I should pickup and stash Blanton and De La Rosa?”“

I think another thing that people need to consider is that these ERA estimators are used to evaluate pitchers assuming neutral luck and park effects; that makes sense if you’re a GM looking to acquire a real life pitcher. But for fantasy owners, they must keep in consideration that a pitcher’s bad luck may not even out if they player for a team with a bad defense, that will inflate BABIP, or in a hitter’s park that will inflate HR/FB. That’s why I would love if THT or another start would provide a fantasy LIPS or xFIP that accounts for the player’s real life team’s BABIP, HR/FB, etc.

“LIPS is the only ERA estimator that I know of to include IF FB%, but it’s an important factor since 98% of infield flies become outs.  It’s essentially like extra strikeouts.”

tRA also accounts for IF FB%. http://statcorner.com/tRAabout.html

Derek,

Two questions

1-Do pitchers have control over IF FB%? I was under the impression that IF FB% was more like HR/FB or LD% so I assume it will regress over time.

2-I use another site for sortable statistics (wont put the link in here). FIP is the luck neutral statistic they provide. Is there a quick rule I can apply to adjust FIP to be more meaningful. I’ve just been eyeballing is and, if the HR/FB% is abnormal, making mental note of it.

Thanks.

Thanks Dave,

Follow-up question

Do batters control their IF FB%?

Should I be adding IF FB% to K% when looking at the number of outs a batter is directly responsible for? Or should I assume IF FB% will regress?

Mike

Mike,
As David said, pitchers can control their IF FB%.

As far as adjusting FIP, if left with no alternatives, I’d simply eyeball the pitcher’s HR/FB and if it’s too high or too low, the FIP should be higher/lower accordingly.  This brings a lot of guesswork into, though, when it’s easier just to check out something like xFIP or tRA which does all the work for you.

Mike asked, “Do pitchers have control over IF FB%? I was under the impression that IF FB% was more like HR/FB or LD% so I assume it will regress over time.”

As David and Derek said above I believe pitchers can control IF FB%. In fact, running a regression on GB% seems to show a pretty decent correlation with a .35 R^2.

Just looking at some of the leaders and laggards of IF FB% seems to show that flyball pitchers are quite good at getting infield flys and groundball pitchers are quite poor.

Webb, Maddux, Lowe and Carmona, four of the most extreme groundball pitchers are the in the bottom five for IF FB% over the last two years. It makes sense, IF FB% require the ball to get pretty far below the ball and when you’re throwing most of your pitches low in the zone (as GB pitchers do) it’s going to be pretty difficult to do so. Like wise, most of the leaders in IF FB% are extreme FB pitchers since they’re mostly trying to beat you with high heat (Johan, Peavy, Hamels, Ol. Perez, etc).