Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. III

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The daily grind: 5-23-13 (6)
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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. III

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Friday, May 24, 2013

Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. III

Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:01am

Before we begin, let’s pay tribute to fellow fantasy dumpster-diver Jack Weiland, whose prescient endorsements of Scott Feldman and Eric Chavez have paid dividends for readers who followed his advice, while Yunel Escobar, who Jack wrote about a few weeks ago, has also been hot lately. (Matt Joyce is another one of Jack’s quality recommendations, despite missing time this week with a hamstring injury.) Meanwhile, Jeff Locke is ignoring my naysaying as he turned in another solid outing for the Pirates, while Jake Odorizzi stood his ground against the Blue Jays on Monday.

If you want to read about those guys, I won’t stop you from adding another couple of page views to THT’s metrics. But since you’re here now, why don’t we examine a few more waiver candidates.

Rick Porcello | Detroit Tigers | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 15.4 percent ESPN; 40 percent CBS
YTD: 38 IP / 4.38 FIP / 6.39 K/9 / 1.89 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 163 IP / 4.14 FIP / 5.75 K/9 / 2.15 BB/9

Note: Deadlines being what they are, I’m writing this article before Porcello's Thursday night start against the Twins, so both the stats listed, and, perhaps, my thoughts on this guy could be in dire need of updating by the time you read this. If he threw a no-hitter last night, I’m a genius. If he got torched, I’m an idiot. So this disclaimer is a way of hedging my bets so I can save face in the morning, ya dig?

After resisting the, um, urge to write about Ubaldo Jimenez over the past couple of weeks—I think he still sucks, and I suspect most of you guys do, too—I figured I’d instead pull the trigger on another typically frustrating fantasy starter. Porcello, who had a wonderful spring (.75 WHIP, 21-to-0 K/BB ratio and a rejoinder about why March stats don’t matter), has really turned it on of late, going 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA, 8.64 K/9 and just five walks over his last 25 innings (four starts).

Not that you’ve forgotten, but while Comerica Park plays favorably to pitchers, a tag team of Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder rarely leaves the Tigers wanting for offense and the team’s bullpen led the American League in both FIP and WAR entering Wednesday’s action. Put those factors together, and you have the baseline for a successful waiver wire addition—provided, of course, that the man in question does his part.

It’s hard to imagine Porcello is still only 24 years old, as he’s been a full-time player for the past four seasons. In that span, he’s established himself as a sub-par fantasy pitcher, a guy who kills owners with his paltry strikeout totals (lifetime 5.07 K/9) and doesn’t help in ERA, WHIP or wins. So far this year, however, Porcello has looked (sorta) like a new man, as his 6.39 K/9, 1.89 BB/9 and 54.9 percent groundball rate would all be career highs were the season to end today. (Before you sneer at the meh strikeout rate, understand that he only had three—that’s three—strikeouts in his first four appearances.)

What’s changed? He’s basically ditched his slider this year and has instead leaned much more heavily on his curveball and changeup, two pitches that have combined for nearly 36 percent of his offerings, as per FanGraphs. That might be responsible for the 7.6 percent swinging strike rate and 62.9 percent first-pitch strike percentage, both of which are career highs.

Out of curiosity, I looked to Texas Leaguers to compare his first four outings of the year (when he totally sucked) against his recent hot stretch to see if he’s done anything different. It’s a bit unfair to compare to the two sample sizes (he’s thrown significantly more pitches over his last four starts compared to his first four appearances, one of which was in relief), but, at least as far as Texas Leaguers is concerned, he’s recently reintroduced his slider a tad and thrown more changeups, a pitch that has seen a much-improved whiff rate. (To what extent TL’s PITCHfx may have confused his slider and curve, I can’t say.)

I’m sensitive to CBS Sports’ Al Melchior’s observation that two of Porcello’s good starts were against the Astros and Braves, two teams whose strikeout rates are, respectively, first and second in baseball. But that still doesn’t explain how he’s neutralized the Indians and Rangers, two first-place teams whose wOBA are among the majors’ best.

If you’re skeptical that Rick Porcello, midway through the season’s first eight weeks, has mutated into Nolan Ryan, fair enough. But we’re not so far removed from Porcello’s immaculate spring as to completely dismiss that excellent month, and a new emphasis on his pitch selection provides concrete evidence that Porcello is trying a new approach in 2013.

Factor in a 3.42 xFIP that’s two-and-a-half runs better than his ERA, and a 61 percent strand rate that needs to jump 5 percentage points before it meets the worst seasonal mark of his career, and I’ll say it: I’m buying into Porcello’s hot streak and improved strikeout capability. As a member of the reigning AL champs, and with two starts in Week 9 (one home against the Pirates, one at the Orioles), that makes him a terrific upside guy in most fantasy leagues.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in mixed leagues across the board.

DJ LeMahieu | Colorado Rockies | 2B | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; .4 percent ESPN; 7 percent CBS
YTD: 18 PA / .412 / .444 / .529 with 0 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 375 PA / .303 / .337 / .390 with 2 HR and 8 SB

What happened to Josh Rutledge? Wasn’t he supposed to be a huge middle infield sleeper heading into 2013? Well, with only a quarter of the season over so far, there’s plenty of time for Rutledge to rehabilitate his standing with fantasy owners, but the path back to respectability will now lead through Triple-A, was he demoted by the Rockies on Wednesday. That opens a spot for LeMahieu to get some time in at second base, thus making him a prime waiver wire candidate.

A few weeks ago, I wrote about Kelly Johnson, a guy who should post above-average power numbers for a second baseman, even if I reject the buzz over his recent hot streak. Well, in a sense, LeMahieu could prove to be KJ’s fantasy alter ego, a guy who offers very little in the way of power (nine minor league homers stretched out over 1,669 plate appearances), but has managed an 84 percent contact rate in the major leagues and batted .321 down on the farm.

Since his 2013 debut on May 16, LeMahieu has played well, though he’s obviously not going to maintain the 35.7 percent line drive rate that’s led him to reach base half the time he’s put the ball in play. He’s also not the most patient hitter, as a mere 6 percent walk rate in the minors doesn’t lead to much optimism going forward.

But he puts the bat on the ball, and in case it needs to be said, Colorado is a great hitter’s park and the Rockies’ lineup currently paces the National League with a .333 wOBA. As a bonus, depending on your league’s eligibility rules, LeMahieu could offer help at third base (nine games last year), and, if your league is super liberal, shortstop and first base as well (three games between those spots last year).

With catcher being a relatively flush position this year, and third base adding the likes of Nolan Arenado and Josh Donaldson to its ranks in 2013, there’s little doubt that middle infield, as usual, is the fantasy position most in need of help. If you have a more well-rounded candidate at second base, good for you, but in a deeper mixed league, a guy like LeMahieu deserves consideration.

Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper mixed leagues.

Pedro Florimon | Minnesota Twins | SS | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; 5.1 percent ESPN; 8 percent CBS
YTD: 107 PA / .242 / .311 / .347 with 2 HR and 6 SB
ZiPS updated: 501 PA / .238 / .297 / .336 with 7 HR and 17 SB

Should I be embarrassed that I had no idea who Florimon was until recently? (Put another way, as embarrassed as when I suggested Brian Dozier could have fantasy value?) Well, not really, since Florimon’s career .271 wOBA is underwhelming even for a shortstop. Still, the 26-year-old is making strides, as both his strikeout and walk rates signal improvement over his career numbers, thanks in part, FanGraphs tells us, to an improved ability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone.

Florimon, who brings a weak .105 ISO to fantasy owners, won’t help with power, but the six steals so far are encouraging, a pace ZiPS seems to think is sustainable. With regular playing time—he’s been in the lineup nearly every day, aside from missing some time earlier this month due to a strained hamstring—and a batting average that could settle into the not-awful .250 range, Florimon offers intriguing help for owners in desperate need of speed.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only league material.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, May 23, 2013

The daily grind: 5-23-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:18am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

A reminder: The Grind will be going on a one week holiday starting tomorrow.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Kevin Gausman's ownership has more than doubled from 14 to 32 percent. He will face the Blue Jays in his debut.

Edwin Jackson has pitched better than his numbers and should be relatively safe to start against most teams.

Zach McAllister gets the nod only because of the thin pool of options today. Usually I would avoid starts against the Red Sox.

Pitcher (bum): For years, Joe Blanton has underperformed strong peripherals. And now his peripherals have gotten worse and he's still underperforming them. Stack Royals.

Rick Porcello is also underperforming his peripherals, which suggest he's the same 4.50 ERA pitcher he's always been. Remember when he was a monster prospect with swing and miss stuff?

Hitter (power): Nate Schierholtz, Oswaldo Arcia, and Travis Snider are a few names who could swat a long ball today.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain and Aaron Hicks may be your best bets to pick up a stray steal.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Samuel Deduno is an unusual Twins prospect in that he strikes out a lot of batters and walks more than his share. You may not want to get mixed up in this roller coaster, and especially not against the Tigers, but deep league owners should give him some thought.

John Lackey is looking like vintage John Lackey. His strikeout rate looks a bit high while his walk rate may be a shade low. He's currently sporting a low 3's ERA that his peripherals support, but I expect that to be closer to 3.90 over the remainder of the season.

I don't know what to make of Marco Estrada. He has a strong strikeout rate, respectable walk rate and solid ground ball rate, and yet he keeps turning in disaster pieces. I'm entertaining the possibility that we have a new Ricky Nolasco on our hands (or Javier Vazquez is you prefer), but I'm also sticking with him.

Pitcher (bum): Freddy Garcia is having trouble getting pitches past hitters. Right now, he's showing non-terrible numbers thanks to a .179 BABIP against. The Blue Jays are a threat to hit some balls out of play.

The Braves draw buffet manager Jeremy Hefner for tomorrow's feast.

Luis Mendoza: Redefining Mendoza. Actually, he's pitched solidly after some early season combustion. His skill set remains unimpressive and exploitable by most teams.

Apparently, Joe Saunders kills it at Safeco (9-0 with 1.72 ERA), but gets killed everywhere else. I have to bet on the Rangers lineup over Saunders, regardless of locale.

Hitter (power): Let's watch Juan Francisco take some big hacks.

Travis Hafner will see Roberto Hernandez. On the other side of that match-up. Kelly Johnson is showing a lot of value as a platoon option at second base.

Righty Chris Carter will face lefty Tommy Milone.

Cody Ross has been quiet thus far. He's not striking out or hitting for power. He'll face a lefty tomorrow - Eric Stultz.

Hitter (speed): Cain will gain the platoon advantage tomorrow against Jason Vargas.

Craig Gentry should start against Saunders.

Noteworthy news

I learned yesterday that Brian Urlacher was retiring. Today, I learned that he is calling quits on his stealth MLB career. Read the headline, and if it makes sense, it's because they fixed it.

Weather watch

Every game except the Angels and Royals is at risk to see thunderstorms and/or rain. Of course, the Orioles and Blue Jays will be playing in a dome, so it doesn't matter if it rains in Toronto, but the other three games will likely be affected.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Strength of schedule: Adjusting pitcher values

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:58am

Last week, I wrote a piece Evaluating Hitter Schedules This week, I will mimic that format while substituting in pitchers for hitters, although there is one main difference in that pitcher results in schedule-rating barometers come less often in team-wide waves than the hitters. So, here are five players whose perceived values should be altered thanks to their strength of schedule.

Note: all data used in this article was aggregated by the fantastic website BaseballProspectus.com, and it only includes pitchers with at least 25 innings pitched.

Matt Moore, Rays
On the surface Matt Moore has all the sabermetric characteristics of a guy destined for regression. He has an absurdly low .197 BABIP so far this season, a 91.8 percent Left On Base Percentage (LOB%) which is the highest in major league baseball, and his ERA is only a little more than half his xFIP (2.29 ERA, 4.24 xFIP). However, Moore also has the highest Opponent’s Slugging Average (oppSLG) in baseball at .448, meaning that the hitters he has faced have hit for more pop for the year than the hitters any other pitcher has. I still think he’s going to regress because of that LOB%, but instead of up towards his 4.24 xFIP, I think he’ll regress more towards a 3.50 ERA or so the rest of the way as he faces worse hitters.

Jordan Zimmerman, Nationals
To me, Jordan Zimmerman is one of the most blatant sell-high candidates among starting pitchers. He has a huge name, has already amassed seven wins, his 1.62 ERA is less than half his xFIP, and most importantly for his trade value he is currently the number four pitcher on the ESPN Player Rater. Added onto those basic regression indicators is the fact that Zimmerman also has the fourth lowest oppSLG in major league baseball (.395), meaning the batters he has faced have hit for essentially no power. That probably is a large part of the reason his HR/FB rate is only 5.4 percent so far this season, and as he faces better hitters, I’d look for him to get worse and worse. Sell high while you can.

Tony Cingrani, Reds
Cingrani impressed in his short stint in the big leagues, but due to a crowded rotation, he still got sent back down to Triple A. Over his six starts, Cingrani posted 11.18 K/9 to only 2.45 BB/9, which would seem to indicate that he has the upside to be elite despite never being touted as an ‘elite’ prospect.

Well, that indication would be wrong, and is a big reason why digging deeper pass the base-most stats is a good idea. Through those six outings and 33 innings, Cingrani also has the lowest Opponent’s On Base Percentage (oppOBP) in major league baseball at .310, meaning the aggregate OBP of every hitter he has faced is only .310. So, that means that his 2.45 BB/9 rate is definitely in question, as he was facing hitters that were already prone to not walk, as is the 11.18 K/9 rate, as guys with low OBP’s generally strike out more. In a keeper format, if I owned Cingrani, I’d be looking to move him right now.

Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
A quick glance at Gallardo’s stats would make it seem like the Brewers starter has become way, way worse this season, dropping from his usual nine or more K/9 rate down to a sub par 6.67 K/9. However, Gallardo also has the second highest oppOBP in major league baseball at .340. Given that, his walk rate of 3.26 BB/9 so far this year is actually really encouraging, and implies that once he faces worse competition that number should come down, perhaps even to around 3.00 BB/9. I wouldn’t pay draft day value for Gallardo, but if I could flip a Cingrani or sell high on a Patrick Corbin type for him, I’d happily do it.

Roy Halladay, Phillies
Anyone who watches baseball could tell you that Roy Halladay just didn’t look like himself this season, but his awful statistics before his recent surgery belie just how bad Doc really was in 2013. Yes, an 8.65 ERA speaks for itself, as does his 6.24 FIP and 4.17 xFIP—however, what the casual fan might not know is that these stats were accumulated against the second lowest oppOBP in all of baseball. That means that not only has Halladay been horrible, but he has been horrible against some of the worst competition in baseball. I hate to say it, but unless he looks drastically different after these surgeries, I don’t think Doc is going to have any fantasy value the rest of his career. I wouldn’t even speculate on him in a keeper league, as sad as that might be.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

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The Roto Grotto: targeted z-scores

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:28am

Z-score is a useful statistic to compare player performance in roto categories relative to an average player’s performance in those same categories. But what does average performance really give you in a fantasy league? Well, it depends. In some leagues, likely deeper ones, average performance in home runs may be enough to secure you upper-tier roto points. However, in most leagues, only the best 175 or so hitters will ever be used in the league, and so an MLB-average home run hitter may be nearly worthless in fantasy.

Here is the table of the top-10 hitters from my previous article based on their combined Z-scores:

Player	Season	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	1.88	4.45	1.33	3.71	1.66	13.02
Ryan Braun	2012	2.64	2.06	2.11	2.13	1.63	10.57
Miguel Cabrera	2012	2.75	-0.51	2.92	1.96	1.95	9.07
Josh Hamilton	2012	3.01	-0.17	2.93	2.09	0.74	8.61
Andrew McCutchen	2012	1.60	1.04	1.41	1.99	1.80	7.85
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	2.82	0.42	2.12	1.54	0.63	7.52
Mike Stanton	2012	3.16	-0.15	1.94	1.50	0.68	7.13
Jose Bautista	2012	3.05	-0.07	1.98	2.09	-0.14	6.92
Matt Kemp	2012	1.89	0.40	1.65	2.11	0.83	6.88
Carlos Gonzalez	2012	1.08	1.36	1.52	1.84	1.07	6.86

It is pretty clear from the table that Mike Trout was the best fantasy player last season, and you would have to be in an extreme circumstance in fantasy for context to change that fact. However, you’ll notice that as soon as you exit the top-five, the differentiation between players gets pretty small. Given their disparate production in various roto categories, it would not be hard to think of situations where you might have rather had Edwin Encarnacion last season than Andrew McCutchen, even though McCutchen provided more total value relative to an average player in each roto category.

So, to really make Z-scores useful to fantasy, I need to change their contexts. I do not want to compare performance to that of an average MLB player. I want to compare it to an average player of the roto points tier I am targeting.

A few posts ago, I linked to this set of tables of average values for each roto point tier of each category in an ESPN standard league. I can use those benchmarks as a replacement for the means in my Z-score calculations.

With that small adjustment, here are a few different total Z-score top-10s based on different roto point targets. First, here is one for all 10s:

Player	Season	Points	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	10	1.34	3.96	0.79	3.13	0.90	10.11
Ryan Braun	2012	10	2.10	1.57	1.57	1.55	0.81	7.61
Miguel Cabrera	2012	10	2.21	-1.00	2.39	1.38	1.10	6.07
Josh Hamilton	2012	10	2.47	-0.66	2.40	1.51	-0.02	5.70
Andrew McCutchen	2012	10	1.06	0.55	0.88	1.41	0.99	4.89
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	10	2.28	-0.08	1.58	0.96	-0.11	4.63
Mike Stanton	2012	10	2.63	-0.64	1.40	0.91	0.07	4.37
Jose Bautista	2012	10	2.51	-0.56	1.45	1.51	-0.60	4.32
Matt Kemp	2012	10	1.36	-0.09	1.11	1.53	0.28	4.18
Carlos Gonzalez	2012	10	0.54	0.86	0.99	1.26	0.36	4.01

Here is one for all eights:

Player	Season	Points	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	8	1.52	4.17	0.95	3.30	1.06	11.02
Ryan Braun	2012	8	2.28	1.78	1.74	1.73	0.99	8.52
Miguel Cabrera	2012	8	2.39	-0.79	2.55	1.56	1.28	6.99
Josh Hamilton	2012	8	2.65	-0.45	2.56	1.69	0.14	6.60
Andrew McCutchen	2012	8	1.24	0.76	1.04	1.59	1.16	5.80
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	8	2.47	0.14	1.74	1.14	0.04	5.53
Mike Stanton	2012	8	2.81	-0.43	1.57	1.09	0.20	5.24
Jose Bautista	2012	8	2.70	-0.34	1.61	1.69	-0.50	5.16
Matt Kemp	2012	8	1.54	0.12	1.28	1.71	0.39	5.04
Carlos Gonzalez	2012	8	0.72	1.08	1.15	1.44	0.51	4.90

And here is one for all fives:

Player	Season	Points	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	5	1.69	4.37	1.12	3.49	1.20	11.86
Ryan Braun	2012	5	2.45	1.98	1.90	1.91	1.13	9.37
Miguel Cabrera	2012	5	2.56	-0.60	2.72	1.74	1.43	7.85
Josh Hamilton	2012	5	2.82	-0.26	2.73	1.87	0.28	7.44
Andrew McCutchen	2012	5	1.41	0.96	1.21	1.77	1.31	6.65
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	5	2.63	0.33	1.91	1.32	0.18	6.37
Mike Stanton	2012	5	2.98	-0.23	1.73	1.28	0.31	6.06
Jose Bautista	2012	5	2.87	-0.15	1.78	1.87	-0.42	5.94
Matt Kemp	2012	5	1.71	0.31	1.44	1.89	0.49	5.84
Carlos Gonzalez	2012	5	0.89	1.27	1.31	1.62	0.64	5.73

You’ll notice that the order of the top-10 never changes, which is what we should expect. Because each roto category is equally valuable and because we maintained a 1:1 ratio of each category, one player never actually passes another. However, the relative value of players does change. That is because the gaps between point tiers are not equal for every roto category, and those differences help and hurt some players more than others depending on the distribution of their production.

To illustrate, consider the relative value of Mike Trout and Miguel Cabrera. In the original table of Z-score values based on the MLB league averages, Trout was worth 44 percent more than Cabrera ((13.02 – 9.07) / 9.07). With a target of five roto points in all categories, Trout was worth 51 percent more than Cabrera. With a target of eight roto points in all categories, Trout was worth 57 percent more. And with a target of 10 roto points in all categories, Trout was worth 66 percent more than Cabrera. The more extreme the target, the more valuable Trout becomes relative to Cabrera because of the improvements we are making in our benchmark player.

So which is the correct target to use? Before the season and without a specific strategy in mind, the answer is probably the all-eight point table. Prior to the 2012 season, Matthew Berry revealed that the average winner of their standard leagues from 2008-2010 scored 80 combined roto points, which is an average of eight points per category. However, that answer will be different for every team, a topic I will discuss next week.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

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Wednesday, May 22, 2013

The daily grind: 5-22-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:37am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday, some commenters expressed an interest in increasing the ownership threshold to 70 percent for starting pitchers. Is there wider interest in seeing that change? Let's have an informal poll/discussion in today's comments.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Francisco Liriano is the top option available today. He is opposed by the Cubs.

Paul Maholm would fit here if I increased the ownership threshold. He will face the Twins.

Jorge de la Rosa has put together some solid numbers this season, but a low strike out rate is mildly concerning.

Pitcher (bum): The Braves offense against Vance Worley should help out Maholm.

The Tigers will face Ubaldo Jimenez. He is coming off a couple of strong outings, but it's hard to weight a couple of good games over a couple of terrible seasons.

I said it yesterday and I'll say it again: Jason Hammel turned back into a pumpkin. Which puts him on the All-Style team since he now matches the Orioles colors.

Today's marquee match-up is Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith, a.k.a. two guys whom very few people know anything about.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has cooled down, but Hammel could perk him back up.

Scott Hairston could run into a Liriano mistake. He's known to throw his share of mistakes.

Cody Ross will face de la Rosa.

Hitter (speed):
Chris Denorfia gains the platoon advantage against Lyons.

Lorenzo Cain will see Jordan Lyles.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Kevin Gausman will get his first major league start tomorrow against the Blue Jays. His ownership rate is already up to 14 percent, so act fast.

Owners are quitting on Edwin Jackson's poor ERA, but his FIP/xFIP are right around the expected 3.80 mark. The Pirates aren't a walk in the park these days, but he seems to be a pitcher worth owning in way more than 30 percent of leagues.

Zach McAllister has a tough match-up against the Red Sox. He's up to 31 percent owned.

Pitcher (bum):
Joe Blanton is getting smacked around like a ... I think I'll opt not to finish that joke.

I'm actively rooting against Rick Porcello because I want Drew Smyly to get an opportunity. Porcello's peripherals suggest he'll be his usual self going forward.

Hitter (power): Nate Schierholtz will face Jeanmar Gomez.

Travis Snider will see Jackson.

Oswaldo Arcia may enjoy Porcello.

Hitter (speed):
Hang onto Cain.

Aaron Hicks is still struggling mightily, but he's a stretch option for tomorrow's thin slate.

Noteworthy news

I'm not sure why, but Jose Bautista received a rare and much-coveted lifetime pass. He and a guest can attend any MLB game free for life.

Mike Trout hit for the cycle yesterday.

Chris Perez quit Twitter. Surprisingly, people are dicks on the internet. And I'm just being generous by adding that "on the internet" qualifier.

Weather watch

The Midwest has some impending storms, which could affect the Pirates, Cubs, White Sox, Red Sox, Tigers, and Indians.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. II

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:15am

Before we get to today's regularly scheduled baseball chatter, I want to take a moment to offer my condolences and thoughts to those affected by the tornados in Oklahoma this week. Last month, after the Boston Marathon bombing, I wrote this, and I think it applies here as well:

The world is a big, beautiful place, but sometimes it is immeasurably bad. Boston's story is sadly not unique either, as you are undoubtedly aware. Tragedies unfold every hour of every day, in every nook and cranny of the world. It's part of the deal we make to live in it.

I'm here to write about fantasy baseball because that's what I do. To unwind. To relax. To escape. To have fun. And that's why I'm here today. I urge each of you Internet People (IPs) to do the same. Play fantasy baseball. Take your kids to the park. High five a stranger. Laugh. Cry. Live.

You can, I promise, and you must.

In many ways, this week's tragedies in Oklahoma are more intimately connected with the baseball world, as so many players, coaches, fans, and media hail from the Sooner State. I was touched to see members of the baseball community reaching out to do their part to help, including Diamondbacks prospect Archie Bradley and Dodgers outfielder Matt Kemp. If you're able to, I urge you donate to those who have lost so very much this week.

Enough real life. Let's get on to the fantasy stuff, shall we? We shall!

Mitch Moreland has seen his ownership rates skyrocket since he was featured here (a direct result of being featured here, no doubt). The Texas first baseman is now owned in 89 percent of CBS leagues, so I hope you heeded my advice and bought when I said that would be a good idea. The ultimate upside here still seems limited to me, but he's hitting right now and that should only get better as the weather heats up in Texas this summer. James Loney has also continued to produce, albeit less homer-ly than Moreland, and he's owned about 25 percent fewer on CBS.

Waiver Wire favorite Welington Castillo has tailed off considerably, his last five games notwithstanding. His power is now below average and he's due even more regression because of his still-high .395 BABIP. But hey, at least he drew a walk!

Matt Garza and Andrew Bailey returned from injuries. If either is unowned in your league as a result of their respective trips to the disabled list, you should remedy that immediately. John Danks also will return this Friday, but I would take a more measured approach with that one. It seems Dylan Axelrod will hold on to his spot in the White Sox rotation for the time being, and he's actually been surprisingly not that bad. I didn't listen to my own advice to avoid him earlier this year, and he hasn't hurt me yet.

Scott Kazmir got slapped around by the Mariners, and I'm sticking by my advice that he doesn't offer a whole lot of value for fantasy owners.

Today, let's look at three starting pitching options for those in deep leagues.

Jerome Williams | Los Angeles Angels | SP | ESPN: 7.5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 10 percent; CBS: 40 percent
YTD: 2-1, 3.05 ERA, in 38.1 innings pitched
ZiPS Projection: 6-7, 4.14 ERA in 133 innings pitched

The Junkyard Dog!

In my continual scan of CBS' "Most Added Players" list, I was somewhat shocked to see Jerome Williams (yes that Jerome Williams) as one of the most added pitchers last week, jumping from six percent to 40. I should not have been. The Angels' rotation has been terrible (fifth worst ERA in the majors) and Williams has been very solid in posting a 3.05 ERA, 3.71 FIP and 4.50 xFIP.

His strikeout rate of 14.7 percent is nothing to write home about, but his walk rate of 6.4 percent is encouraging, and he's getting a fair number of ground balls (41 percent). He's posted quality starts in two of his three trips to the bump, both against the anemic White Sox offense, and he's likely to keep his spot in the rotation until Jered Weaver returns.

There's a lot to like the further you dig into his PITCHfx data, as well. His velocity, at 92.7 miles per hour, is as high as it's ever been. He's generating a healthy number of swings outside of the strike zone (34 percent), he's throwing tons of first pitch strikes (63.1 percent) and his swinging strike rate (10.6 percent) is similarly strong.

Recommendation: Worth owning while Weaver is sidelined. He may lose his job after that, but let's cross that bridge when we come to it.

Jair Jurrjens | Baltimore Orioles| SP | ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 0 percent; CBS: 10 percent
YTD: Four earned runs, five strikeouts, one walk, five innings pitched in his one start this year
ZiPS Projection: 3-8, 6.14 ERA, 82 innings pitched

Jurrjens made his season debut for the Orioles Saturday in place of Wei-Yin Chen, who is sidelined with an oblique strain. He's never had a ton of swing and miss in his game, and it's very clear now that his absurdly good 2009 (in which he had the fifth best ERA in the majors) was a complete outlier. It's just one start, but Jurrjens was not bad in that one start, and he's been decent at Triple-A this season.

In his eight starts there, he has a strikeout rate of 17.1 and a walk rate of 7.1 percent. His velocity does not appear to be back where it once was, but it's very possible Jurrjens is not awful. Or, at least it's possible that he's not as awful as he was last year when he vomited up a 6.89 ERA for the Braves before they realized he was not helping them very much.

The Orioles sent him back to Triple-A to make room for Miguel Gonzalez, but it's entirely possible (perhaps even likely) that they will bring him up again to make his next start later this week.

Recommendation: Break glass in case of emergency.

Roy Oswalt | Colorado Rockies| SP | ESPN: 0.0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 5 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 8-6, 4.45 ERA in 111.2 innings pitched

Oswalt signed with the Rockies earlier this year, which caused many owners (who had been speculating on him signing in a more pitcher-friendly situation) to jump ship. He's gotten good press this week, though, and is about to set off to Double-A, where, at 35, he will make a handful of starts before joining the big club.

Oddly enough, Jeff Zimmerman covered both Jurrjens and Oswalt over at Fangraphs last year, and came to this conclusion about Oswalt (then with the Rangers).

Oswalt looks to be a bit of an intriguing pitcher. Currently, his talent level is not exactly known. He looks to get plenty of wins by being on the Rangers. His WHIP and ERA may suffer a bit when throwing at home. Right now, I would look at spot starting him against weaker teams at home or when the Rangers are on the road.

Temper the wins thing, change the Rangers to Rockies, and the statement still holds very true. He's still just 35 years old, and while his 5.80 ERA last year with the Rangers was certainly ugly, there was a fair amount of bad luck involved there as well.

Recommendation: Worth a shot in deep leagues. Wait and see in mixed leagues. Oswalt is the kind of veteran pitcher fantasy league owners love to undervalue.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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The hardest thing

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:12am

The hardest thing to do in fantasy baseball is to sell high on a known stud. Well, perhaps that’s actually misstated; it would be incredibly easy to sell Miguel Cabrera right now—owners would line up around the block. But, the action that requires the most self-discipline is to sell high on a known stud. But, objectively, it’s the proper move.

Let’s think through a rational approach to trading Miguel Cabrera.

I think it’s agreed that if Cabrera finishes this season at 110/40/130/.330, he’d have justified a first overall pick—even if somebody else winds up as the top overall producer.

Cabrera, as great as he is, is essentially a known quantity and when it comes to known quantities, we can think of potential production lines in terms of probability. An “average” Cabrera season represents the most probable outcome, and as you travel away from that mark—in either direction—the probability of such a season decreases. I’d consider the hypothetical season line I proposed above as slightly toward the good side of average for Miggy— maybe half a standard deviation to the plus, if I had to estimate. Now, here’s the question: Does his start to this season change those expectations?

Essentially, it does not. Miguel Cabrera is still a known quantity. There’s was a non-negligible probability for him to produce a .350/45/150 season before the season started, and that probability still exists. But, the fact that he had this torrid first quarter that has him on pace for a season out of the 1930s doesn’t necessarily make the +2 standard deviation more likely than the average season, or more likely than such a season was on draft night.

So, while it is exciting and very tempting to think that Cabrera is in the midst of re-calibrating his ceiling, at the age of 30 it’s more likely that he’s produced 35 pdercent of his full output in 25 percent of the elapsed time frame. That’s the essence of selling high.

Further, if Cabrera does wind up posting a significantly better-than-average season, all he’d have to do to achieve that would be to be his “normal self” for the rest of the season. To have a fantastic season, by his own standards, all he really needs to do is be 100 percent of himself for three quarters of the season after having been more like 120 percent of himself for another quarter.

So, the takeaway here is that the two most likely outcomes for Cabrera throughout the rest of 2013 are that he is either his average self, or less than that. If you are selling him, you are most likely selling a quantity worse than what you acquired on draft day, or most cautiously, the same quantity you acquired.

However, one would have to assume that his value on the market is higher than ever now. And, this is why, as hard as it may be, the right thing to do today is to sell. Solicit offers at the very least!

Part of the reason Cabrera owners are reticent to trade him is centered on the potential failure of the players for whom they trade more than a relatively irrational expectation of future super-Miggy production. Cabrera is probably the most consistent producer in the game and a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. I’m sympathetic to this line of thought. Reliability is an important facet of a player from a fantasy perspective, but it is a hand that shouldn’t be overplayed.

Generally speaking, I would not suggest swinging for the fences when trying to trade Cabrera. You want to increase production while not substantially increasing volatility. Therefore, I would not simply look for the pre-ranked top-25 player who is just having the worst season and blindly try to add him. If you are going to try for the biggest elite player turnaround possible, I’d suggest qualifying that strategy by looking for the player who best fits this archetype: the most historically consistent player still in the neighborhood of physical prime whose early season swoon has the weakest external explanation.

Some of the highest pre-ranked players off to bad starts don’t necessarily fit that mold well. Albert Pujols comes close, but it seems he’s less than 100 percent physically more often nowadays. Either a DL stint or playing through lingering pain are harbingers of disappointment.

Josh Hamilton fits the bill somewhat too, but I don’t think he’s been very consistent. His two best seasons have been somewhat anomalous. Last year, he posted career high home run and RBI numbers, and in his MVP season he put up an uncharacteristically high batting average. Plus, he’s been injured fairly regularly. He usually finds a way to be elite, but it’s hard to determine what to expect in terms of how he’s going to get there, which is a problem from a team-building standpoint.

Matt Kemp kind of fits the bill, but is coming off an injury. And so on, and so forth.

If you are comfortable with the rebound potential of any of those players, they make fine targets, but I wouldn’t stay away from a trade simply because you can’t easily identify a perfect target who has been a major disappointment. Another strategy would be to ask for a pretty reliable high-level player who is chugging along only a bit below expectation and then try to add on top of that.

Owners of Joey Votto or Andrew McCutchen or Adrian Beltre are probably not dancing in the streets right now, but these players have been fine thus far. Perhaps there’s some “value” to be gained in adding those players, and you can add an additional highly useful player into the deal. That’s a second way to win. If you were to ask for one of those players plus that team’s best closer or second best (or in some cases, best) starter, you could probably get it.

At the very least, Cabrera is so hot right now that there’s almost no offer you could propose to another owner that he’d consider offensively bad. Announce on the message board that you are entertaining offers. Create a bidding war. You can always say no.

Do something! Create action. Derive information.

There are likely owners in your league willing to overpay for Cabrera, but the burden of drawing them out is on his owner’s shoulders.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Tuesday, May 21, 2013

The daily grind: 5-21-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:45am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday's pitchers didn't work out well. Kazmir bombed and Odorizzi scuffled a bit. I hope today can be better.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza's ownership is up a whopping two points to 61 percent. I expected to see a huge jump yesterday, but I think a lot of fans are still unaware of his return.

Jose Fernandez is the only other card up my sleeve for today. He jumped three ownership points to 51 percent. Sorry I don't have somebody more widely available to point at today.

If you absolutely must use somebody, Wade Davis against the Astros seems like the best play.

Pitcher (bum): Is it me, or are there an unusual number of exploitable pitchers this season? I don't recall leaving guys off this portion of the list on a daily basis last year.

I'll limit myself to four picks: Aaron Harang against the Angels, Edinson Volquez versus the Cardinals, Tyler Cloyd against the Marlins (yes I'm picking the Marlins offense) and Mike Pelfrey against the Braves.

Hitter (power): It's Juan Francisco's turn in the platoon.

David Murphy draws Dan Straily, who appears a bit off his game.

Jonny Gomes faces Jose Quintana.

To hedge my bets, Carlos Pena could launch a long ball against Davis.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson will see ancient journeyman Ramon Ortiz.

Gerardo Parra will face Jhoulys Chacin.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start):
Jorge de la Rosa is erratic, which makes him rather maddening to use. His strike out rate is surprisingly small this season, which eats into his value.

Speaking of maddening pitchers, Francisco Liriano is owned in only 37 percent of leagues and will face the Cubs. The only thing we can tell about him right now is that he's generating whiffs.

Pitcher (bum):
The Braves offense remains a strong pick against Vance Worley.

I don't believe in Ubaldo Jimenez's hot streak and generally speaking, I don't believe in starting pitchers against the Tigers anyway.

Jason Hammel turned pumpkin.

Tyler Lyons versus Burch Smith sounds like a lot of runs.

Hitter (power): Try Travis Hafner against Hammel.

Scott Hairston could be worth employing against Liriano.

You can also try Cody Ross against de la Rosa.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia should start against Lyons.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Jordan Lyles.

Weather watch

There are scattered storms expected throughout baseball today. The Cubs, Pirates, Mets, Reds, Tigers, Indians, Athletics, and Rangers could be affected. The other storm locations have domes.

Column notes

I will be out from Friday, May 24 through the end of next week.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Diamonds in the rough: starting pitchers

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:16am

It’s a good time to check in on a few pitchers who haven’t been greeted with the results that their skills merit. We have a large enough sample size (for most pitchers) to interpret strikeout rates and most PITCHf/x data with some degree of reliability. Home run rates, on the other hand, are another story. My three “diamonds in the rough” this week have all fallen victim to the long ball this year at a rate that is likely not going to persist.

These are three starting pitchers I’d buy stock in. I chose these pitchers with the long run in mind, since I’m counting on them to fall back to earth—or, at least, back inside the yard.

Tim Hudson, Atlanta Braves

Hudson has never really been a strikeout pitcher; he relies on his sinking fastball to induce ground ball outs. This year he has fallen victim to the long ball more often than a sinker ball pitcher should, and his ERA is artificially high as a result. Hudson’s ground ball rate is gradually declining as he grows older, but we shouldn’t infer that this relationship as a causal one. Hudson’s sinker is moving just about as much as it has in recent years, and he has silenced those who were worried about his fastball velocity.

What (if anything) is Hudson doing differently this year? I couldn’t find too much, but if we want to get nitpicky, he is using his off-speed pitches a bit more often. These pitches don’t appear to be any less effective, though. Hudson has also been using his curve ball surprisingly often (around 25 percent of the time) when ahead of right-handed hitters.

If you watch Hudson on the mound this year, you’ll notice that he has shifted his positioning so that his right foot barely touches the left-hand side of the rubber. As you can see on the chart below, Hudson pitched from this angle in 2010-2011, but moved toward the center of the rubber in 2012. His exaggerated release point has allowed Hudson to run his sinker in harder on right-handed hitters, and to back it up against left-handed hitters. He has induced almost twice as many misses per swing with the pitch this year as he did last year.

In recent years, Hudson has been able to vary his pitch usage quite well in two-strike situations, so I’m not sure why he has decided to become more predictable this year. Regardless, look for Hudson’s ERA to improve as his ground ball rate regresses and his home run per fly ball rate improves. He’s still the same pitcher we know and love.

Dan Straily – Oakland Athletics

Straily has had an interesting season thus far. His earned run average stands at a miserable 7.27, yet his fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark of 4.18 suggests that he has merely been unlucky. In addition to suffering from the home run plague, the A’s starter owns one of the league’s worst strand rates. While he does seem to struggle with his control from the stretch, he should see fewer runners score soon enough—so long as his inflated BABIP regresses. Straily’s strikeout-to-walk ratio plummets from 2.71 to 1.60 with runners on base, but we haven’t seen enough from him to believe in these numbers.

I am optimistic that Straily will turn things around sooner rather than later. He’s a strikeout pitcher, and he has consistently demonstrated the ability to dominate hitters all the way through the A’s minor league system. He possesses a running fastball that can be paired effectively with his slider against both left-handed and right-handed hitters. If Straily begins to consistently locate his fastball on the corners, we all owe him a second look.

Edwin Jackson – Chicago Cubs

In my eyes, Jackson is having a fine season. Hawk Harrelson might disagree with me, though, because the right-hander owns a 1-6 record and a 5.76 ERA. His strikeout rate is higher than it has ever been, and his fastball is moving more than what we’re used to seeing from him. His sinking fastball is running in on right-handed hitters (and occasionally left-handers) often this year, and he has posted a ground ball rate exceeding 60 percent with this pitch. Jackson is a fun pitcher to watch, and at 30, is enjoying a resurgence that makes us wish he were 10 years younger.

As Jackson’s unsightly strand rate begins to stabilize, many will take notice of his achievements this season. His batted ball misfortune this season is likely keeping him on the Cubs roster, as contending teams will be looking to acquire Jackson as the season progresses. His value for fantasy owners can only improve.

*Thanks to Brooks Baseball for the pitch data and charts used in this article.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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The Verdict: keep your trade secrets to yourself

Posted by Michael Stein at 3:03am

Every so often, a case of first impression makes its way to the Supreme Court of Fantasy Judgment. Recently, I received a case from someone requesting that a trade be revoked because someone else poached the player he was targeting in a trade. The appellant apparently had mentioned he was trying to acquire Cole Hamels from another team and disclosed that he was prepared to make an offer. His leaguemate turned around and made a better offer, thus obtaining Hamels right from under him.

Does it sound shady? A little bit. But is it illegal or against the rules? The Court did not think so.

Deer Antler Spray Tan and the Sith Lords made a deal. Deer Antler Spray Tan traded Adam Jones and Jeremy Hellickson to the Sith Lords for Hamels. After the trade was accepted by both teams, the commissioner approved it and it was processed through the league’s website. Upon receiving notice of the trade, the team known as the Church of Latter Day Taints protested to the commissioner, arguing that the deal should be nullified because Deer Antler Spray Tan went behind his back and poached Hamels from him. The commissioner rejected the Church of Latter Day Taints’ request and stated that the trade was fair and the teams involved did not violate any league rules.

Issue presented

The Court was not asked to evaluate the merits of the trade. However, for posterity, the trade of Jones and Hellickson in exchange for Hamels is fair and equitable, and it would be upheld. Rather, we were asked to overturn the trade for the alleged subterfuge under which it was conceived.

This case unfortunately deals with allegations of bad sportsmanship and chicanery. While there is an obvious and inherent desire to succeed, there is also a generally accepted code of conduct within the fantasy sports industry premised on acting in good faith within leagues and among league members. It gets murky when someone’s actions could be perceived as bad faith but do not necessarily violate any league rules or create the need for recourse.

Here, the Church of Latter Day Taints argues that he informed his friend John, the owner of Deer Antler Spray Tan, that he was engaging in trade negotiations with the Sith Lords for a deal involving Cole Hamels. He states that he made these statements casually while they spoke on the phone a couple days before the trade was consummated. Days later, the Church of Latter Day Taints learned of the trade that was made without being given the opportunity to continue negotiating or increase the value of his offer on the table.

The question is whether Deer Antler Spray did anything wrong by consummating the subject trade with the Sith Lords. To evaluate that, we must consider what possible actions could be perceived as illegal, unethical or against the best interests of the league.

One potential cause of action to analyze is whether this constituted collusion. The Court takes this extremely seriously because alleged acts of collusion within a fantasy league are one of the most serious fantasy sports crimes and can undermine the integrity of a league more than almost anything else. Collusion is defined as a secret agreement or conspiracy especially for fraudulent or treacherous purposes.

Based on the facts known surrounding the trade that was made, no rules or league guidelines were circumvented. The appellant’s displeasure at Deer Antler Spray Tan for trading with someone else does not rise to a viable cause of action. Fantasy players are permitted to trade with whomever they choose so long as the trades themselves are fair and equitable. Teams are not obligated to shop players around for a more advantageous deal. The end result here was a fair trade made between two teams in the league and the Court could not reasonably conclude that there was any foul play involved to implicate collusive activity.

It is debatable whether Deer Antler Spray Tan’s actions were ethical if in fact he used information provided by the Church of Latter Day Taints to his own advantage to secure a trade. The record was devoid of evidence of whether Deer Antler Spray Tan was engaged in his own trade negotiations at the time. Assuming that he was not, did he do anything so egregious as to warrant overturning the trade? The Court did not believe so.

What we have here is a lesson to be learned by the Church of Latter Day Taints and all other fantasy players. Fantasy baseball strategy should be kept to one’s self because information is not proprietary. Teams are not bound by terms of secrecy. No one team owns exclusive rights to negotiate trades with other teams. The Church of Latter Day Taints foolishly disclosed his own strategy and information which was then allegedly used against him. That is no one’s fault but his own.

The fantasy baseball audience is welcome to judge whether those actions are ethical or moral. But the Court’s jurisdiction is simply to uphold the rules and guidelines and to ensure that the integrity of the league is maintained. The fact that Cole Hamels, a star pitcher who has under-performed thus far in 2013, is the target of trade offers is not surprising. It makes perfect sense that other teams would want to “buy low” on him. Whether Deer Antler Spray Tan was pursuing this prior to his conversation with the Church of Latter Day Taints is irrelevant. He is free to pursue trades at any time he desires. In this instance, he likely took advantage of unsolicited information proffered to him and struck a deal that benefited his own team. That is simply fantasy baseball savviness.

The appellant had no justifiable expectation of secrecy or exclusivity by disclosing his trade strategy. He assumed the risk by informing a fellow league member of his intent to trade for Hamels and allowing enough time to pass for the Sith Lords to take a different compensation package. The Church of Latter Day Taints, just like all other fantasy sports players, is responsible for his own due diligence when managing fantasy teams including trade negotiations. Based on the foregoing, the appellant’s request to revoke the underlying trade was denied.

The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.

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Monday, May 20, 2013

Closer watch

Posted by Karl de Vries and Karl de Vries at 5:00pm

Welcome to Closer Watch! If you want to look up a team's closer or his possible replacements, or just want a refresher on the league's closing situations, you'll find the answers on our continually updated chart.

AL Bullpens

+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| TEAM      | CLOSER              | INTERIM CLOSER | SECURITY    | NEXT-IN-LINE                     |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| Angels    | Ernesto Frieri      |                | Shaky       | Scott Downs, Ryan Madson (DL)    |
| Astros    | Jose Veras          |                | Shaky       | Wesley Wright                    |
| Athletics | Grant Balfour       |                | Secure      | Ryan Cook, Sean Doolittle        |
| Blue Jays | Casey Janssen       |                | Secure      | Steve Delabar, Esmil Rogers      |
| Indians   | Chris Perez         |                | Secure      | Vinnie Pestano                   |
| Mariners  | Tom Wilhelmsen      |                | Locked In   | Pryor, Luetge, Capps             |
| Orioles   | Jim Johnson         |                | Secure      | Pedro Strop, Darren O'Day        |
| Rangers   | Joe Nathan          |                | Locked In   | Jason Frasor, Tanner Scheppers   |
| Rays      | Fernando Rodney     |                | Shaky       | Peralta, McGee, Farnsworth       |
| Red Sox   | Andrew Bailey       |                | Secure      | Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara      |
| Royals    | Greg Holland        |                | Secure      | Aaron Crow, Kelvin Herrera       |
| Tigers    | Jose Valverde       |                | Secure      | Coke, Benoit, Rondon             |
| Twins     | Glen Perkins        |                | Secure      | Jared Burton, Casey Fien         |
| White Sox | Addison Reed        |                | Locked In   | Matt Thornton, Jesse Crain       |
| Yankees   | Mariano Rivera      |                | Locked In   | David Robertson                  |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+

NL Bullpens

+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| TEAM      | CLOSER              | INTERIM CLOSER | SECURITY    | NEXT-IN-LINE                     |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+
| Braves    | Craig Kimbrel       |                | Locked In   | Jonny Venters, Walden            |
| Brewers   | Jim Henderson       |                | Secure      | John Axford, Mike Gonzalez       |
| Cardinals | Edward Mujica       |                | Secure      | Trevor Rosenthal                 |
| Cubs      | Kevin Gregg         |                | Shaky       | Kyuji Fujikawa, Carlos Marmol    |
| D'Backs   | Heath Bell          |                | Secure      | David Hernandez, J.J. Putz (DL)  |
| Dodgers   | Brandon League      |                | Shaky       | Kenley Jansen                    |
| Giants    | Sergio Romo         |                | Locked In   | Santiago Casilla, Javier Lopez   |
| Marlins   | Steve Cishek        |                | Secure      | Jon Rauch, A.J. Ramos            |
| Mets      | Bobby Parnell       |                | Secure      | Frank Francisco, Brandon Lyon    |
| Nationals | Rafael Soriano      |                | Secure      | Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard      |
| Padres    | Huston Street       |                | Secure      | Luke Gregerson                   |
| Phillies  | Jonathan Papelbon   |                | Locked In   | Mike Adams                       |
| Pirates   | Jason Grilli        |                | Locked In   | Mark Melancon                    |
| Reds      | Aroldis Chapman     |                | Locked In   | Jonathan Broxton                 |
| Rockies   | Rafael Betancourt   |                | Locked In   | Matt Belisle, Rex Brothers       |
+-----------+---------------------+----------------+-------------+----------------------------------+

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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The daily grind: 5-20-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:35am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is currently posting some of the best peripherals of his career. The only blemish is an extremely elevated HR/FB ratio: 21.2 percent of fly balls have left the yard.

Jake Odorizzi will make his first start as a Ray today. He was posting solid numbers in Triple-A, including a strikeout rate above nine per nine innings and a walk rate around three per nine. He may be in the rotation for only a few starts while David Price is out.

In terms of expectations, Odorizzi will probably provide top waiver quality output—something like eight K/9, four BB/9, a 4.00 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His ownership could shoot up quickly since he's a prospect.

I saw Jeremy Guthrie was facing the Astros today and then I saw he's owned in 61 percent of leagues. I hope about 40 of that 61 percent picked him up as a stream starter, but I know better. Tsk tsk.

Pitcher (bum): There are a couple epic exploits in play for today.

Zach Duke versus Ryan Vogelsong promises fireworks aplenty.

Josh Lindblomt—a relievert—is starting against the A's today.

Alex Sanabia tends to bend but not break. He's a good bet to allow four runs on five innings.

Shaun Marcum is coming off his best outing and could be in the process of turning the corner. I'm going to continue betting against him for the time being.

The Yankees should enjoy a reunion with Freddy Garcia.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner has dropped off his epic pace, but you can try him out against Garcia.

Domonic Brown is a solid play against Sanabia.

Play the Seth Smith and Brandon Moss train today, although they'll face a mix of righties and lefties.

Hitter (speed):
Eric Young Jr. will start against lefty Patrick Corbin. You may also want to try Gerardo Parra against Jon Garland.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Matt Garza is 59 percent owned, but in the leagues where he is not owned, this may be your one shot to scoop him up.

Jose Fernandez barely qualifies for a recommendation at 48 percent owned. He's done well against the Phillies in two outings and they may be without Ryan Howard and Carlos Ruiz.

Pitcher (bum):
Go ahead and stack Angels against Aaron Harang.

The Cardinals will face erratic righty Edinson Volquez.

Tyler Cloyd has been roughed up by Triple-A lineups worse than the Marlins all season. For daily league owners, this might be a rare opportunity to lean on the Marlins offense for cheap points.

Mike Pelfrey's looking pretty ugly this year. The Braves aren't likely to go hungry tomorrow.

Hitter (power):
Juan Francisco will bring his hard swing against Pelfrey.

Dan Straily has struggled with command, making him a solid match-up for David Murphy.

Jonny Gomes will get to face another non-elite lefty in Jose Quintana.

Did you know that "the Royals are 5-0 when Wade Davis allows four runs or fewer but 0-3 when he does not." Thanks MLB.com. Now try Carlos Pena against him.

Hitter (speed):
Kelly Johnson has a good match-up against Ramon Ortiz.

You can hang onto Parra for his start against Jhoulys Chacin.

Noteworthy news

Johnny Cueto is back in action today.

Jurickson Profar has been recalled and will start at second base while Ian Kinsler recovers from bruised ribs. It will likely be a short stint on the disabled list, so don't cut a key contributor for Profar. Yahoo surprisingly gave him only UTIL eligibility.

Garza will make his first start of the season tomorrow.

Weather watch

Games in Baltimore and Chicago may see isolated storms today, but the weather seems manageable otherwise.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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The Hot Seat

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 4:21am

Remember that feeling you used to get on Christmas Eve, giddy with excitement and unable to sleep? That’s how I’m feeling as I write this, because Jurickson Profar was called up on Sunday to replace the injured Ian Kinsler and is slated to start at second base on Monday.

If he’s on the waiver wire in your league, even in standard mixed leagues, go pick him up right now. If you’re in an AL-only league, he’s almost certainly already owned, but in mixed leagues he’s likely available, seeing as his ownership on Yahoo is currently 29 percent and just 9.8 percent on ESPN.

Profar, regarded by many as the best prospect in all of baseball, earned a cup of coffee with the big-league club last season as a 19-year-old after he hit .281/.368/.452 in Double-A. He started this year in Triple-A, and while his .278/.370/.438 line looks pretty good to start with, especially for a middle infielder, he has been absolutely raking lately. In his last ten games, Profar is hitting an absurd .415 with four walks and four strikeouts in 46 plate appearances, and he homered twice on Saturday before receiving the call-up on Sunday.

Still just 20 years old, Profar has a tremendously mature approach at the plate, as evidenced by the fact that he has 180 walks and 212 strikeouts in his minor-league career. He also possesses one of the best hit tools in the minors, and because of those two factors, he should be able to hit for a high average in the majors right now. Reaching 15 homers and 15 steals wouldn’t be out of the question in a full season, and with his on-base ability, he has the potential to score runs in bunches in the Rangers’ potent lineup.

The big question, of course, is what the Rangers will do with Profar when Kinsler is healthy. As the Twins have shown with Oswaldo Arcia—and which I predicted in this column three weeks ago—there are ways to get a talented player into the lineup on a full-time basis merely by using him to give the regulars days off. I certainly could see the Rangers following this model.

Another option would be to trade him to fill a need elsewhere, such as in the outfield or the rotation. Both Elvis Andrus and Kinsler are locked up for years and, on a pure baseball level, Profar has more value to other teams as a shortstop than he has to the Rangers as a second baseman/utility man. Every team wants an above-average defensive shortstop who can hit; the Rangers just happen to have one already.

Of course, the Rangers could just send him back down to Triple-A. After all, the kid is only 20 years old. If he doesn’t perform in the majors until Kinsler returns, it would be easily justifiable, and even practical, to send him back down. If he does perform, as I fully expect he will, the Rangers will have a very nice problem on their hands.

So why, with all the questions about his potential playing time, am I recommending owners in standard mixed leagues pick him up? It all comes down to a philosophical belief of mine regarding fantasy sports. My response to a question I received on Twitter regarding Profar sums it up nicely:

I would. It's a gamble, but you don't win leagues playing it safe RT @reckoner423: @scottstrandberg @jeffwilson_fwst drop Walker for Profar?
— Scott Strandberg (@ScottStrandberg) May 19, 2013

I can’t tell you whether Profar will be back in Triple-A three weeks from now. I can’t tell you if he’s ready for the majors. What I can tell you is that you do not win fantasy leagues if you are not willing to take risks. This used to be my Achilles’ heel in fantasy.

I was just not willing to take chances, and I always overvalued the players on my roster because I so badly wanted them to all be awesome. As a result, I perennially finished anywhere between third and sixth in my long-running, 12-team home league. I almost always made the playoffs, but I never won. It took me years to figure out why.

Not everyone on your roster is awesome. Jurickson Profar could be. Just go add him already.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 8, Vol. 1

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:08am

Okay, so Denard Span and Will Venable have done basically nothing in the days since we had them on the waiver wire, though I remain optimistic that both will see their ownership levels rise as the next few weeks unfold. Meanwhile, our old friend Patrick Corbin continues his ridiculously hot start to the season, even if a major market correction looms, while Yonder Alonso has seen his ownership levels droop slightly despite maintaining a decent batting average.

But that’s in the past. Let’s talk about some fresh faces as we kick off Week 8 on the waiver wire.

David Phelps | New York Yankees | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 4 percent ESPN; 38 percent CBS
YTD: 42.1 IP / 3.64 FIP / 9.78 K/9 / 3.83 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 134 IP / 4.06 FIP / 8.33 K/9 / 3.45 BB/9

Every team should be as fortunate to have a Phelps among its pitching corps, and no, I’m not being facetious. Having aided the team’s October run late last summer, Phelps, 26, now finds himself a member of the starting rotation, having posted a 1-1 record with a 2.84 ERA and 1.22 WHIP over four starts. On Saturday, Phelps neutralized the (albeit struggling) Blue Jays, allowing just one earned run over seven strong innings.

That performance continued what’s been a strong major league career so far for Phelps, who’s been a strikeout-per-inning pitcher since his debut last year and has been stingy yielding free passes throughout his professional tenure.

Granted, his current strikeout penchant is not supported by an ability to generate swinging strikes, which portends a drop there, and the career 4.12 FIP is probably closer to Phelps’ future as a back-of-the-rotation guy rather than the savior he’s been over his past few outings. But why carp? A guy who can pitch competently on a first-place team is a no-brainer add in mixed leagues, right?

Not so fast, because the question about Phelps’ fantasy value has less to do with his ability to be a decent major league starter than it does whether he’s the best option at the Yankees’ disposal when Ivan Nova and Michael Pineda get back.

We’ll start with Nova, who looked primed to return last week from a triceps injury, only to suffer a setback with an injury to his side during an extended spring training game, and it’s currently unclear when he’ll return to active duty.

Pineda, of course, is still recovering from that awful labrum injury he suffered last year, and although he’s throwing again (and reportedly hit 95 mph on the radar gun earlier this month), the Yankees don’t expect him back until mid-June at the earliest.

Long story short, neither Nova or Pineda is coming back soon enough to prevent Phelps from making at least a few more starts, and frankly, their return might not be enough to squeeze him out of the rotation anyway. We’ll find out for sure as they get healthy, but in the meantime, I think Phelps will provide solid fantasy help across the board, making him a worthy pickup in deeper leagues.

Recommendation: Can contribute in standard mixed leagues.

Jake Odorizzi | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | 7 percent Yahoo ownership; .1 percent ESPN; 24 percent CBS
YTD: N/A
ZiPS updated: N/A

The fantasy world held its breath last week when Rays ace and reigning Cy Young Award winner David Price went down with what’s being described as a right triceps injury. On the surface, that doesn’t sound too bad, but his fastball had lost velocity from last year, and there’s speculation that the company line is merely a cover for a far more serious ailment. Time will ultimately tell, but in the meantime, it’s probably prudent to wave bye-bye to Price for at least the next few weeks.

In his place comes 23-year-old Odorizzi, a key part of both the 2010 trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee and the offseason James Shields/Wil Myers deal last year. Boasting a fastball, curve, slider and changeup, Odorizzi appeared on Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list in each of the past three years, and came up for two starts last year in Kansas City.

He’s considered a good, not great, prospect, though he was off to a nice start in Triple-A this year, posting a 4-0 record over eight starts with a 3.83 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a 9.5 K/9. A former first-round draft pick, Odorizzi seems primed for a solid major league career, even if his ceiling has more in common with a mid-rotation role than an ace’s responsibility.

That being said, it seems he’ll have an opportunity to make his mark as Joe Maddon says Odorizzi will gobble up Price’s starts while he’s on the shelf. In Week 8, that makes him a two-start option as Odorizzi prepares to face the hapless Blue Jays in Toronto this afternoon, and, barring disaster, the Yankees at home on Sunday.

Those aren’t impossible matchups for the neophyte, but they’re not exactly charitable foes, either, so while I’m interested to see how Odorizzi does this week, I’m not sure a sense of urgency surrounds him outside of the deepest mixed leagues in which his two starts are absolutely necessary.

Recommendation: Pass in mixed leagues until he pads his resume.

Raul Ibanez | Seattle Mariners | OF/DH | 8 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 94 PA / .236 / .277 / .562 with 8 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 404 PA / .237 / .287 / .456 with 20 HR and 1 SB

By the time May dawned, the soon-to-be 41-year-old Ibanez, hitting just .158 at the time, was a fantasy corpse, an afterthought in all but the deepest AL-only leagues. But as the weather heated up, so did Ibanez’s bat, and after helping the Mariners tie up Saturday’s game with a home run against the Indians’ Chris Perez, Ibanez has suddenly seen his ownership pick up thanks to a month that, entering Sunday’s action, had him bashing to a .375 average with six home runs and a ridiculous 1.425 OPS.

Anyone who tuned in to the ALDS between the Yankees and Orioles knows that Ibanez still can provide help on a baseball diamond, and he managed to hammer 19 home runs with 62 RBIs last year. But while the past few weeks have reminded us that Ibanez can still provide fantasy help, it’s important to remember that he’s basically a platoon player in Seattle, splitting time with Jason Bay.

In Week 8, the Mariners will face no fewer than three lefties (Scott Kazmir, C.J. Wilson and Derek Holland), which more or less neutralizes Ibanez's bat fantasy-wise in the immediate future. Players like Ibanez are definitely useful while they’re hot, and I have nothing against salvaging old parts to help the fantasy war effort (right, Travis Hafner?). But I’m going to pass on picking him up right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only league material.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Friday, May 17, 2013

The daily grind: 5-17-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:41am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez is the best available starter today, which is not a good thing.

Pitcher (bum): However, there are plenty of bad starters to sift through.

Jordan Lyles, Rick Porcello, Vance Worley, and Burch Smith all look particularly exploitable. In addition to those names, Brandon Maurer is opposed by Ubaldo Jimenez in a probable slugfest.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has a nice match-up against Edwin Jackson.

Garrett Jones will see Lyles while Daniel Nava will face Worley.

The Giants seem to directing some frustration at Brandon Belt despite solid performance. I expect Brett Pill to see starts against lefties, although I suppose we'll find out tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has a solid match-up against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia should start against Gio Gonzalez.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I would usually recommend Hector Santiago, Marco Estrada and Justin Grimm, but they face the Angels, Cardinals, and Tigers respectively. So I'm avoiding them.

I mention them because I can't point at anybody else without it being a pure gamble. If you want that gamble pick anyway, it's Juan Nicasio against the Giants. But don't credit/blame me for the results.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton has looked lost at times this season. The White Sox aren't a difficult match-up, but they're good enough to cause trouble.

Erik Bedard has yet to settle in this season. He's been unusually prone to walks and home runs—a bad combination.

Chris Capuano has a tough assignment against the Braves.

The Orioles are throwing the always talented TBA.

Hitter (power): Ervin Santana gives up some home runs, which makes it a good day for Seth Smith and Brandon Moss.

Brandon Belt ought to be owned more frequently than 33 percent. A game against Nicasio is likely to help his numbers.

Chris Johnson should like batting against Capuano.

Jonny Gomes finally sees a mid-tier lefty - Scott Diamond

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. or Charlie Blackmon against Tim Lincecum might produce a steal or two.

Noteworthy news

Word on the street is that expanded replay could hit the shelves as early as 2014. The game will be poorer for it. You can't tell, but that was biting sarcasm.

Weather watch

Minnesota, Atlanta, and Chicago have possible thunderstorms in the forecast.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Strength of schedule: Adjusting hitter values

Posted by Moe Koltun at 2:44am

Strength of Schedule (SOS) is a concept usually reserved for discussions about football. That is largely because football has only 16 games per season, and therefore the variance between the easiest schedule and hardest schedule is quite large. Over a 162 game season, that disparity becomes much smaller, which is why now, 40 games into 2013, is the perfect time to gauge schedules in baseball—right now, there is a huge disparity between the best and worst quality of competition faced among specific players.

In fantasy baseball leagues, being aware of that disparity could lead to enormous advantages in valuing players much more accurately than your league mates, because at this point, strength of schedule just isn’t something the average baseball owner factors in. This week, I’m going to focus on the hitters with the best and worst SOS in certain metrics, and next week I will write up the pitchers.

Note: All of the data used in this article is from BaseballProspectus.com, and only includes hitters with a minimum of 75 Plate Appearances.

Nate McLouth, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, and the rest of the Orioles lineup:
Baseball Prospectus has a metric called Opponent Slugging (oppSLG), which is the aggregate slugging average of all the pitchers faced against a hitter. The Orioles have nine of the top 20 performers in oppSLG so far this season. Basically, Baltimore as a team has faced pitchers who have given up an inordinately high slugging percentage so far this year, so all of the power-performances on the team must be taken with a slight grain of salt.

I still buy into Adam Jones, Chris Davis and even Nate McLouth as legitimate fantasy performers, but their power production pace might dwindle the rest of the year. That is particularly true in the cases of Chris Davis (11 HR, .659 SLG) J.J. Hardy (7 HR, .396 SLG) and Manny Machado (5 HR, .541 SLG).

The Blue Jays Lineup vs. the Tigers Lineup
At this point in the season, all of these opponent-gauging metrics seem to come in team-wide waves. One of those stats is Opponent On Base Percentage (oppOBP), which measures the aggregate On Base Percentage of all of the pitchers a batter has faced for the year. The Blue Jays have six of the 10 lowest oppOBP’s in major league baseball, and nine of the bottom 18, whereas Detroit actually has six of the top seven performers in the statistic.

The truth of the matter is the Blue Jays have just faced one of the hardest pitching schedules in baseball so far this year, and the Tigers have faced one of the easiest. Players like Brett Lawrie, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion and Melky Cabrera have all been adversely affected by that fact, and players like Alex Avila, Victor Martinez and Torii Hunter have all been greatly helped by it.

For example, the difference between Lawrie’s oppOBP (.298) and Torii Hunter’s (.330) makes the 100 point disparity in their OBPs more understandable—Hunter has faced significantly worse competition than Lawrie.

While the ratio of how much oppOBP affects a player’s actual OBP isn’t one to one, a shrewd fantasy owner should acknowledge that it has some tangible effect and downgrade some of what Hunter has accomplished this year, while upgrading what Lawrie has done. Both oppOBP and oppSLG should be used as a general tool to modify a player’s value slightly rather than to overhaul it entirely.

Buy Low On: Buster Posey
Posey has managed a .286/.391/.508 triple slash so far this season. The most impressive part of that is certainly the slugging percentage, as Posey is among the bottom thirty in oppSLG. Most fantasy owners are disappointed that Posey only has 5 homers so far this year, but I think that number should spike the rest of the way and owners will be thoroughly satisfied. Posey has also both increased his walk rate and lowered his strikeout rate, so he is maturing as a hitter plate discipline-wise despite some bad luck. Now is a prime opportunity to buy low on the guy who is still clearly the best catcher in Major League Baseball.

Sell High On: Coco Crisp
Coco Crisp is tied for the tenth highest oppOBP in baseball. The reason I’ve singled out Crisp from that list as a sell high candidate is that his skillset in particular benefits greatly from facing a lot of high on base allowing competition. Speed-first guys are extremely prone to having value inflation due to their fluky OBP’s, and Crisp seems like a prime example of that phenomenon.

See, stolen bases are all about opportunities, and logically, the more a player gets on base, the more opportunity they will have to steal bases. So not only did Crisp’s value get inflated in the form of a higher batting average, more runs, and a higher OBP, it also gets inflated (disproportionately so) because Crisp now has significantly more stolen bases than he normally would have up to this point in the season. I still like Crisp, but his pace of eight stolen bases in 25 games is completely unsustainable, and I’d project his .375 OBP to regress to around his career norm of .330. If you can still get top 50 player rater value for him, I would pull the trigger on moving Crisp.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. III

Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:43am

Baseball is funny. Fantasy baseball is especially funny.

Sometimes you're a quarter of the way into the season, all of your teams are in first place, all is right with the world, the sun in shining, the gods are smiling upon you, you're walking tall and feel like a million bucks, and then you happen to notice on twitter that David Price (a key cog on your dynasty team) felt something in his triceps, and then felt it again, and then came out of the game. And then seemingly all at once you think to yourself:

Oh god this is the worst thing that has ever happened to me, how could this happen to me? And to David? Poor, sweet David. I wonder if there's anything I can do to help. Would chicken noodle soup help? I have no idea, I'm not a doctor. It always makes me feel better, I guess. How would I even get chicken noodle soup to him? The mail? Delivery? Is he a spaghetti man? Egg noodles? Fusilli? THIS IS A COMPLETE DISASTER. TAKE ANYONE BUT POOR, SWEET DAVID. TAKE ME! TAKE. ME.

Like I said, baseball is funny.

Unfortunately for certain fantasy baseball writers (hey, that's me!) injuries are a part of the game, and they're part of what bring us together here. Dumpster diving is necessary because you always need a Plan B. Even if Plan A is David Price, who has been really durable and just plain great the entire time you've had him on your team. Plan B. You need one. Before we look at some potential Plan B guys today, let's recap a few of our past subjects.

Recent Waiver Wire honorees Mitch Moreland, James Loney, and Will Venable were all among the most added players on CBS this week. Each can provide value in the right circumstances (those circumstances being that you need help, and not a savior).

John Lackey continues to be a very useful pitcher, despite his tough start against the Rays this week, and is still owned in just 34 percent of CBS leagues. He's out there, and he's undervalued.

Matt Garza is making potentially his last rehab start as this is being written, and could rejoin the Cubs early next week.

Let's start today's coverage with Scott Kazmir, since nobody seems to be doing much of that these days.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians| SP | ESPN: 20.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 23 percent; CBS: 65 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.33 ERA, 5.58 FIP, 3.87 xFIP in 25.1 innings pitched
ZiPS Projection: 4-7, 5.80 ERA in 73 innings pitched

Kazmir received all kinds of press last week after he spun a pair of gems against Minnesota and Oakland, and as a result was CBS' most added players last week, jumping from 22 percent to 64 percent. I'm not here to recommend him, though, for a few reasons:

1. He's still a pretty extreme flyball pitcher (getting just 36.5 percent groundballs right now) and one who has seen a career rate of 9.5 percent of them leave the yard. It's worth noting that his home run rate is more than twice his career average right now, so a likely drop in that will improve his 5.53 ERA and 5.58 FIP close to his xFIP of 3.87. But still, those are not great numbers.
2. His control has been better, but we're still just looking at a sample of 25.1 innings pitched, and I'm not ready to buy that he's made significant strides there.
3. Because he gets a lot of strikeouts and a lot of walks, and because that gets his pitchcount high early, he has a tough time pitching deep into ballgames. In points leagues, this is a real problem.
4. His strand rate right now (82.2 percent) is high, even for a guy who strikes out as many batters as he does.

Recommendation: He's one of the hot topics this week, and his strikeout totals might be pretty at times, but my hunch is his ERA, walks, and lack of innings will make him much less useful to fantasy owners than he will be in real life to the Indians. There are better options available in your league right now. Pass.

Eric Chavez | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3B | ESPN: 1.8 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 7 percent
YTD: .310/.376/.536 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .284/.347/.480 in 262 plate appearances

Hey, remember this guy? Would you believe me if I told you he was still just 35 years old? (Yes? Okay, well, good. It wasn't a trick statement or anything, he's 35 years old).

Chavez has to be on everyone's short list for "most frustrating/sad career paths." From 2001-2006, in his Age 23-28 seasons, he racked up 29.1 wins above replacement, combing stellar defense with an offensive profile you dream about. He hit for average, he walked, he hit for power. He accrued plenty of runs and RBI and was just generally a fantasy monster. Then injuries set in. He missed half of 2007 and then played just 122 games combined over the following four seasons. Last year he got his health more or less in order (certainly by his standards, at least) and was able to play in 133 games for the Yankees. He wasn't the monster he once was, but Chavez was sneakily good for New York, putting up a .360 wOBA while posting a strong batting average, walk rate, and ISO.

This year, Chavez has been able to play in 29 of the Diamondbacks 41 games, and is mostly just sitting against lefties. When he's in the lineup, he's been hitting cleanup, and producing at the plate just like the good old days. He is quite literally the biggest injury wild card you could ever have, but his .387 wOBA is worth the gamble. If he stays healthy, this pickup could solidify a championship run. If he adds another in a long line of injuries, well, at least you gave it your best shot.

Recommendation: It's hard to believe a guy with an OPS north of .900 is so widely available at this point of the season, but it's likely the fantasy market isn't buying what Chavez is selling because it's been burned so many times before. Add him now and ride the wave.

Munenori Kawasaki | Toronto Blue Jays | 2B/SS | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 3 percent
YTD: .235/.337/.279 in 83 plate appearances
ZiPS Projection: .257/.311/.311 in 402 plate appearances

Let's be clear, this is pretty deep digging for fantasy purposes, and Kawasaki is not going to help you (like, at all) in terms of batting average or power. Now that we've gotten that out of the way, let's talk about what he can do, which is walk, steal bases, and potentially score runs when he's in the lineup (against right-handed pitching, mostly) while Jose Reyes is on the shelf.

In 83 plate appearances this year, Kawasaki has a very strong walk rate of 13.3 percent. There's a lot to like about his plate discipline numbers, including a very low O-Swing% of 18.7 percent, and an incredible contact rate of 94.4 percent. Essentially, he's not swinging at anything outside the zone, and is making contact with pretty much everything he does offer at. With the amount he's getting on base, he's been able to steal five bases, and has only been caught once.

Recommendation: Kawasaki is not a game breaker by any means, and his value will probably evaporate completely when Reyes returns, but in the short term he can provide some value to teams desperately needing middle infield help.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Thursday, May 16, 2013

The daily grind: 5-16-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:40am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Today is not a good day to stream. If you must, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront look like the best options.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos is probably exploitable on a good day and he's had a long rest. Most pitchers don't like that.

Aaron Harang still seems like he's a few starts from putting it all together.

Edinson Volquez will face a depleted Nationals lineup. It sounds like Harper could miss another game.

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay face Harang.

Garrett Jones draws Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Eric Young Jr. continues to be an everyday option for steals. I have a suspicion he may be coming off the bench tonight in favor of Charlie Blackmon.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jeanmar Gomez will face the Astros, who have turned into a feast or famine unit. They starve a lot more frequently than they feast, but Gomez is still hard to justify using.

Pitcher (bum): Jordan Lyles seems to be having trouble adjusting to life in the major leagues.

Brandon Maurer versus Ubaldo Jimenez could produce many runs. The same goes for Jeremy Hellickson versus Jason Hammel.

The Rangers will aim to exploit Rick Porcello. Free Drew Smyly.

There are other exploitable pitchers, but I'll draw the line at Vance Worley against the Red Sox.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda will face Edwin Jackson, whose 6.02 ERA is balanced by a 3.50 FIP.

Continue using Jones.

Daniel Nava is a good play against Worley.

Brett Pill may start against Jorge de la Rosa in place of Brandon Belt.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain goes against Jarrod Parker.

Chris Denorfia will see Gio Gonzalez.

Noteworthy news

Francisco Rodriguez is expected to join the Brewers soon. Don't expect him to take over the closer's gig immediately. In fact, I wouldn't speculate on him unless you're in desperate need of saves or don't have any other use for the roster spot.

Yasmani Grandal is starting his minor league assignment and is expected to return to the Padres May 28. He will likely platoon with Nick Hundley until he can prove himself.

Weather watch

The Mets and Cardinals might see thunderstorms, but otherwise the coast is clear.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Of Uggs and Uggla

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:03am

It’s an age old question for anybody who has ever taken a trip to the grocery store, or to shop for pants—do you buy what you need/want, or do you buy what is on sale? ...and, no, I don't wear Ugg boots (I'm not Tom Brady), but I could pass up the clever title.

Last week, in my shallowest league, a cold Dan Uggla surfaced on the waiver wire. I hadn’t entered the store of available players to look for a power-hitting middle infielder, or any middle infielder at all, actually. I had just stopped in to browse the spot starting pitchers section. But, like when you are in one of those discount stores and you see an item from a brand normally too high-end to show up at that store, my interests were certainly piqued. Now, this is not the nicest model the second baseman brand makes, and as mentioned, I had no intent to pick up a middle infielder, but the allure of discounted luxury goods can be alluring… even if there’s a chance this Dan Uggla is an irregular. So, I picked him up.

But, did I make the right decision? Is it a good idea to pick up a player simply because he represents a bargain?

In some cases, I think there is a very strong argument for this philosophy – amass talent and decide what to do with it later. And, if you are going to employ this strategy, early in the season is the time to do it. However, the other variable with this strategy is whether your team has current glaring needs. In my case, my offense has been stellar but my pitching has been atrocious. Beyond that, I’m falling a bit too far behind the pace in innings. Even if I feel that much of my staff will come around in the long run (and, I do), I still need the flexibility of that roster spot to take advantage of decent waiver wire options matched up against the Astros and Marlins.

So, I did what your favorite rapper or pop star does with the $8,000 outfit from his/her video. I used my Dan Uggla once or twice and then I returned it. After dropping it off, I bought a lovely start from Nick Tepesch against the Astros and then a productive day from Lyle Overbay on the travel day. I was hoping Uggla would remain available, and allow me to use him regularly on those travel days, when I typically look for spot bats as opposed to spot arms. He may have even convinced me to drop or trade somebody else to make room for him as a regular part of my wardrobe. But, unlike when actually shopping, I couldn’t hide a sweater in the housewares section so I could buy it next time I returned to the store. So, a day or two later, somebody else picked up Uggla.

At the end of the day, I’m comfortable with my decision to prioritize need over value in a vacuum. I have way more room to improve in pitching and need to try to augment my rotation via the wire, either by repeated wise plays or by catching lightening in a bottle on that end. The name of the game is to earn the most points, not accumulate the most talent or value.

How do you balance need vs. value when combing the available players in your league?

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Wednesday, May 15, 2013

The daily grind: 5-15-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Yesterday was a bit of a disasterpiece. I hope few of you used Scott Kazmir or John Lackey (I used both). There's still reason to be cautiously optimistic about both guys, but I would emphasize the caution part more going forward.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes is up to 52 percent owned and remains the best streaming option for the day. He will face the Mariners.

Mike Leake is a decent fallback due to his match-up with the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): The Phillies got to lefty Scott Kazmir last night, and I predict they'll hit well against Corey Kluber too.

The only thing keeping Mike Pelfrey from being an everyday mention in the exploit column is the five-day rotation.

Coming off four bad outings to start the season, Shaun Marcum has a tough assignment against the Cardinals.

Wade Davis versus Barry Enright sounds like a high-scoring affair.

Hitter (power): Colby Rasmus and Adam Lind may benefit from facing Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown homered yesterday and has a friendlier match-up tonight.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain has spent some time circling the waivers in my leagues. He has a nice combination of speed and power. He'll also face Kluber today.

Nate Schierholtz faces Jon Garland.

Eric Young Jr. is starting and leading off on occasion. Use him with impunity.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Honestly, don't try to force it tomorrow. Nobody has a match-up where I can comfortable expect an ERA under 4.00. If you absolutely must use somebody, Jose Quintana, Jerome Williams, Francisco Liriano and Felix Doubront are the best dice throws.

Pitcher (bum): Hiram Burgos got skipped after blowing up against the Reds. The Pirates have a solid offense and will look to exploit any rust he shows.

Aaron Harang will likely struggle against the voodoo Yankees.

Edinson Volquez may be lucky enough to not face Bryce Harper or Jayson Werth, but the Nationals lineup will still be a challenge for him.

Hitter (power): If Harper is out another game, Tyler Moore will get the lovely Volquez match-up.

Travis Hafner and Lyle Overbay should enjoy facing Harang.

Garrett Jones will see Burgos.

Hitter (speed): Keep on using Young.

Noteworthy news

Zack Greinke and Curtis Granderson return to the lineup.

Harper was held out yesterday, citing nausea (among other things). That's a bit worrying. The team docs said he did not have a concussion, but nausea is a symptom of a concussion. It bears watching.

Weather watch

There is currently a small risk of storms in St. Louis and Philadelphia, but otherwise it's another fine weather day.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. II

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:08am

Well, it turns out Andrew Bailey isn’t as close to returning as I may have thought late last week, giving Junichi Tazawa a more lengthy look at the closer’s job in Boston. Problem is, he’s been somewhat terrible since inheriting the job, leading to speculation that a closer platoon with him and Koji Uehara might be possible. Meanwhile, Heath Bell has settled in as the D-Backs closer, though a blown save last week reminded us that he’s hardly a lock for 25-30 saves the rest of the way.

Going even further back in this column’s 2013 track record, Aaron Hicks belted two homers the other day against the White Sox, though that just soothes my ego after the collapse of Jake Westbrook’s fantasy value and Felix Doubront’s recent problems.

But if you wanted to talk about last week’s column, you’d be reading it, wouldn’t you? Let’s look at some new blood.

Will Venable | San Diego Padres | OF | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.6 percent ESPN; 20 percent CBS
YTD: 106 PA / .247 / .327 / .452 with 5 HR and 7 SB
ZiPS updated: 479 PA / .246 / .319 / .421 with 15 HR and 25 SB

Twitter pal Lee Wilson on Friday asked me for my quick thoughts on Venable vs. Craig Gentry and Jordan Schafer. After a quick eyeballing of the three players’ stats, I favored Venable, based on his more consistent playing time and better speed. But the real reason I like Venable—well, at least to the extent one can like a guy with a career .742 OPS—is his 15.4 percent line drive rate entering Wednesday, which is more than three percentage points below his career average. When that climbs, we’ll see his BABIP creep up toward his career .315 level, which will raise his .247 average.

The good news is that Venable is starting to heat up after hitting just .206 last month. Since May began, he’s hit .360 with three home runs and four steals entering Wednesday’s action. Not coincidentally, that hot streak began just after the Padres regained their best offensive player in Chase Headley and Jedd Gyorko began hitting as well. It’s also been encouraging to see Venable hit .327 at Petco Park—yes, that average is inflated by a lofty BABIP, and we’re just talking about a friggin’ six-week stretch here, but for a guy who’s struggled in San Diego throughout his career, perhaps the moved-in fences are a sign that he’ll begin to play better at home.

The 30-year-old Venable, of course, is hardly a newcomer to fantasy circles, having been a full-time player for the past three years after debuting with the Padres in 2008. He's a left-handed-hitter who remains an extreme platoon player, evidenced by a putrid .580 OPS against southpaws. But despite his familiarity as a not-great-but-not-awful fantasy option and someone who’s averaged 26 steals over the past three years, he’s still available in plenty of leagues. He’s never going to be a must-grab, but a hot hand is a hot hand, and the stolen bases alone give him should merit him consideration in five-outfield leagues.

Recommendation: Pass in standard mixed leagues, but pick him up while he’s hot everywhere else.

Jeff Locke | Pittsburgh Pirates | SP | 10 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 39.2 IP / 4.88 FIP / 4.99 K/9 / 4.31 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 154 IP / 4.61 FIP / 6.05 K/9 / 3.92 BB/9

When I saw the southpaw’s CBS ownership jump by more than 20 points in the past week, I figured he was ripe for a spin in the waiver wire. After all, Pittsburgh is about as good a place to stay anonymous as there is in baseball, and perhaps this guy is the real deal looking for just a little positive PR to get his ownership going.

Locke, 25, was drafted in the second round by the Braves in 2006, and was traded, along with two other players, in the 2009 deal between Atlanta and Pittsburgh for Nate McLouth. In the minors, Locke pitched well, compiling a better than 3:1 strikeout-to-walk ratio, a fine 1.26 WHIP and an ability to get strikeouts. Armed with a fastball that doesn’t zoom beyond the low-90s, the Princeton grad was never tabbed as a spectacular prospect, but is expected to hang around the majors as a back-of-the-rotation hurler on a good team.

So what explains the jump in his ownership? Well, a 2.95 ERA certainly doesn’t scare away prospective fantasy owners, and a 3-1 record in seven starts isn’t half bad. Unfortunately, that’s where the good news ends. Want proof? Take your pick: A 4.84 xFIP. A crazy 81.5 percent strand rate. A 21 percent balls in play average. A 7.1 swinging strike rate. Yeah, seven starts is not a gigantic sample size, but it’s not a trend that portends a happy ending, either.

I’m not here to discredit Locke as a big leaguer or wish a pox upon his house, and if he can continue to pound the strike zone and limit walks, I don’t think a 4 ERA with a 6 K/9 is impossible by the time 2013 is over. But a market correction is right around the corner, and when that happens, you’ll want to be someplace else, preferably wearing a helmet while nestled in a concrete bunker.

Recommendation: Stay away in mixed leagues.

Denard Span | Washington Nationals | OF | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 23.9 percent ESPN; 56 percent CBS
YTD: 151 PA / .277 / .344 / .350 with 0 HR and 5 SB
ZiPS updated: 595 PA / .275 / .335 / .369 with 3 HR and 18 SB

Can I ask a dumb question? Why is the leadoff hitter on arguably the best team in the National League hanging around the waiver wire in so many leagues? What’s wrong with a guy who steals bases, scores runs and posts a decent batting average?

Well, past history, for starters: Fantasy owners went ga-ga over Span’s 97 runs, .311 average and 10.4 percent walk rate back in 2009. But they then watched with abject disappointment as his on-base percentage collapsed in subsequent years, a situation compounded by a nasty concussion he suffered in 2011 and a shoulder injury last year that limited him to 128 games. Even after a 3.6 WAR season last year, his wOBA was off by more than 30 points from his 2009 season, and his stock entering 2013 was nowhere near what it was back in his salad days.

Then there’s the dearth of power. We’re talking about just 23 home runs over more than 2,800 career plate appearances (none so far this year) and despite once leading the league in triples, his career ISO barely breaks .100. For Span to be considered a mixed-league outfielder, he needs to keep up his production in his three categories to offset the damage he’ll do to an owner’s batting average and home runs.

So far this year, I’d say the results are mixed. His on-base percentage is acceptable but not ideal, as is his stolen base total, the byproduct of just six attempts. Span’s also suffering from a nasty 19.2 percent infield flyball rate, which will come back down to earth soon enough, and a 14.6 percent strikeout rate that stands to regress back to his career average. As for his health, he had appeared in all but three of the Nationals’ games entering this season, so there’s little reason to believe he’s not 100 percent.

And therein lies the key to Span’s fantasy value: Staying on the field. Assuming a baseline batting average of .280, he could very well produce 90 runs hitting atop a lineup that will produce better as the season unfolds, and I don’t think a return to 20 stolen bases is out of the question. I realize Span, a solid defender, is much more valuable in real life than in fantasy, and in a perfect world, an owner would prefer a more well-rounded stolen base producer than him. But Span does enough things well to justify a hike in his ownership levels, and as the summer progresses, I think that will happen.

Recommendation: It’s time to think about Span in standard mixed leagues again.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Mike Moustakas’ hole

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:01am

Lately, I’ve been working on a few projects related to the concept of the “opposite field premium.” I think that opposite field hitting ability is something that we don’t pay enough attention to, and that the ability to hit to all fields can only become more valuable to a major league hitter over the next few years.

The majors' best opposite field hitters are better hitters (overall) than the average hitter. Additionally, defenses can't shift against good opposite field hitters. Joey Votto agrees, and so should you.

Considering my interest in this type of work, it makes sense that I’ve been keeping a close eye on Mike Moustakas this year. Almost one out of every two balls that Moustakas hits in play are pulled, but his pull percentage alone doesn’t really do justice to his (in)ability to hit to left field. I don’t think I can come up with words that are strong enough to make this point clear to every reader, so I’ll let the numbers do the talking.

In the table below, I’ll use weighted runs created as a proxy for hitting ability. Weighted runs created (or wRC) measures a hitter's offensive output in runs. The wRC+ metric uses 100 as league average, and we interpret differences from 100 as percentage point differences above/below league average.

If you’re wondering how to interpret a negative wRC+ value, I don’t have a great answer for you. FanGraphs defines an awful hitter as someone who posts a 40 wRC+ or lower (a hitter who creates 60 percent less runs than league average). A hitter with a wRC+ of zero technically creates 100 percent less runs than the average player (or zero runs, relative to the average). Moustakas is clearly a very good hitter when he pulls the ball, if not one of the league’s best. But just how awful is Moustakas as an opposite field hitter? It’s hard to tell, actually, because he breaks the scale.

Side note: According to this metric, only two players were worse opposite field hitters than Moustakas was in 2012. Interestingly enough, the first is Jimmy Rollins—a switch hitter. The second is Aaron “I broke my hand because I tried to go the other way” Hill.

I guess it is obvious at this point that Moustakas hasn’t entered 2013 with a more balanced offensive approach. The gap between his pull and opposite field production is even wider now than it was in 2012, and his overall offensive production has been disappointing. Can we attribute Moustakas’ recent struggles to this one, glaring flaw? And what do these splits tell us about Moustakas’ unique swing?

What does he hit where?

Royals fans can find some solace in the fact that Moustakas has average-ish plate discipline. In fact, he has swung at fewer pitches outside the strike zone this year (relative to 2012). However, it’s possible that Moustakas has an issue determining which pitches should be pulled, and which pitches should be hit the other way. If you look at the graph below, you’ll see that he is hitting outside pitches to left field—this is a good thing. However, he pulls the ball so often that he likely is also be pulling some of the outside pitches that he sees. I've plotted pitches that Moustakas hit to left field in 2012 below. We see this strike zone from a catcher's point of view.

It appears that Moustakas does hit pitches that are thrown on the outer half to left field at least some of the time. He also pulls a good number of these pitches, but he doesn’t have a lot of success doing that. In an earlier article I wrote on Zack Cozart's struggles at the plate, I argued that some dead pull hitters tend roll over and hit lazy ground balls on pulled outside pitches.

The hole

We can get a better idea of how well Moustakas handles fastballs on the outer half if we compare his results to league averages. Below, I’ve pulled up two graphs that do just that (courtesy of baseballheatmaps.com). Moustakas is a better hitter than the rest of major league baseball in the green/red areas of the strike zone, and a worse hitter than average in the blue zones. Again, both strike zones are shown from the catcher’s point of view.

With these plots, we can confirm what I originally thought to be true. Moustakas can’t hit pitches that are thrown on the lower outer edge of the plate. My guess is that he has trouble with these pitches because a pitch thrown to the outside corner can’t be effectively pulled by any hitter. I’ll have a full study on this topic soon, but for now you’ll either have to agree with me or write an angry comment below.

These negative run values can be partially explained by fly outs to left field (recall Moustakas’ ridiculous opposite field fly ball rate), but they can also be explained by swinging strikes. Moustakas swings and misses at about the league average rate, but he whiffs most often at pitches low and on the left side of the plate. What’s more, the area of the strike zone in which he swings and misses most often sits just below the area in which he often flies out to left field.

Mike Moustakas has a swing that clearly wasn’t built to hit pitches thrown low and away from the lefty. You may not call the outside corner a hole, but Moustakas’ current approach isn’t as versatile as it could be. I think his dead pull ability is extremely impressive, as he was able to heavily rely on it last year while remaining somewhat productive. But is Moustakas still a bona fide major league hitter if pitchers begin to pound the outside corner? Maybe not.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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Tuesday, May 14, 2013

The daily grind: 5-14-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:39am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm nervous recommending Scott Kazmir, but it seems like conditions are in his favor. He faces the Phillies and is coming off a superb outing against the A's.

John Lackey is another guy on the retread rack. He'll face the Rays, who seem light-hitting but have actually been a top 10 offense.

John Gast is a potentially interesting choice for those who are comfortable playing minor league success. From what I can gather, Gast is "live-armed," can struggle with command, and has a high ceiling as a reliever.

Andrew Cashner is still out there, waiting to hit triple digits on your team.

Pitcher (bum): The match-up between R.A. Dickey and Barry Zito could provide some 1990s era offense.

Jeff Francis has one of his best assignments so far—the Cubs. That isn't stopping me from recommending against him.

Dillon Gee spent a lot of time in my "to start" section. This isn't me throwing him under the bus, the Cardinals are a tough offense to overcome.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston is the top pick for power output.

Chris Johnson will face Patrick Corbin in a battle to see who can defy regression longer.

Jonny Gomes will start but Matt Moore isn't easy pickin's. Too bad he can't face Francis too.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth a look.

As noted in the comments yesterday, Charlie Blackmon will likely see some of the time I originally slated for Eric Young Jr. Still, Young was already starting frequently, so he's should see a few more games now.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Phil Hughes has settled in after a shaky start to the season and has a favorable assignment against the Mariners. He's also 50 percent owned, so he may not be available to many readers.

For some reason, I'm reticent to recommend Mike Leake, even against the lowly Marlins. There's nothing in his peripherals to justify that reticence besides a low-ish strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): For once, I'm going to recommend using the Phillies offense. Corey Kluber is coming off a meltdown outing, though he had previously looked sharp.

Mike Pelfrey will face a struggling White Sox team in a battle to see who can struggle more.

Shaun Marcum has been a mess thus far, and like Gee, he'll also need to turn it around against the Cardinals. Eesh.

Wade Davis faces Barry Enright in what promises to be a high scoring affair. I usually like Davis, but a match-up against the Angels is off-putting.

Hitter (power): Gomes faces another difficult lefty in David Price.

Tomorrow is a good day to try Colby Rasmus against Ryan Vogelsong.

Domonic Brown draws Kluber.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain would be a nice addition against Enright.

Try Nate Schierholtz against Jon Garland.

Noteworthy news

Bryce Harper is showing the portion of his skill set that most worries me. He lost a fight with a wall yesterday that has left him day-to-day with some stitches and a possibly jammed shoulder. Harper has that Griffeyesque penchant for leaving it all on the field (and then some).

Weather watch

Hooray for more great weather.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Monday, May 13, 2013

The daily grind: 5-13-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:38am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Hector Santiago will face the Twins today. He sports a 23 percent ownership rate and has posted strong peripherals including an increased whiff rate that has led to a strikeout per inning and low walk rate.

Justin Grimm has a solid match-up away in Oakland. The Athletics can be a challenge for stream-quality pitchers, especially if they don't have their best command and control that day.

Juan Nicasio might be a bit of a stretch, but a game against the Cubs' mediocre offense should help him.

Pitcher (bum): Luis Mendoza will face Joe Blanton—a game that promises to be high scoring.

Jeremy Hefner may have a hard time against the Cardinals.

This could be a big day for the Indians offense. Both David Phelps and Vidal Nuno are exploitable.

Hitter (power): It's a good day for a double play from Travis Hafner.

Travis Snider is off everybody's radar, but Marco Estrada is a good place to target his first long ball of the season.

Hitter (speed): Michael Brantley might get into two games, but I'm guessing he'll actually platoon with Drew Stubbs today.

Eric Young Jr. should be starting quite regularly with Michael Cuddyer on the disabled list.

Lorenzo Cain should like facing Blanton.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Scott Kazmir is coming off two strong outings. In a very small sample, he's pitching like it's 2008 again. The Phillies are exploitable by lefties, which makes it easier to overcome my general distrust of Kazmir.

I never thought I'd still be able to recommend Andrew Cashner. He should be owned in most keeper formats, although his redraft value is probably in line with his ownership rate of 27 percent.

John Lackey will struggle to win the game since he's opposed by Matt Moore, but a match-up against the Rays is fairly friendly.

You may not want to start him, but keep an eye on John Gast. He's filling in for Jake Westbrook and his minor league numbers suggest the potential for solid results.

Pitcher (bum): I don't play feelings very often, but I have a feeling the Blue Jays are going to tee off on Barry Zito. R.A. Dickey's turned into a bit of a punching bag too; he really needs to go to the disabled list and recover.

Jeff Francis starting means Cubs hitters should go wild.

Dillon Gee seems like he needs to reboot. St. Louis is not the place to do it.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should see action against Francis.

Patrick Corbin is going to turn pumpkin eventually. So is Chris Johnson, which makes this an interesting platoon option. My money is on Corbin winning.

Jonny Gomes has that tough assignment against Moore.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is worth streaming tomorrow.

Hang onto Young Jr.

Noteworthy news

I have a graduation to attend today, so don't expect any responses. Oh, you expected real major league baseball news...

Apparently there was a kerfuffle over the use of some pink-labeled bats yesterday. Louisville Slugger owns exclusive rights to brand pink bats used by MLB players. Other manufacturers can make pink bats, but they cannot be labeled. I'm not sure why that qualifies as noteworthy, but I've noted it.

Anthony Rizzo was the latest beneficiary of the now common, pre-arbitration contract extension. He's inked for another seven seasons.

Weather watch

No weather to speak of although the Yankees and Indians doubleheader will be chilly and windy.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 7, Vol. I

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:09am

Dear readers, it's important that you know one of the best parts of our work here at the Waiver Wire desk is our interaction with you. One exchange got me thinking this week, courtesy of reader Fabio, who thanked us for the tips we give. This led me to wonder how often our tips are acted on, how often those tips are successful, and how horribly they fail sometimes (heh, sometimes).

So, friends, feel free to let Karl and I know how we've led you to glory, or how you've followed our help straight into the clutches of defeat. The only way for us to improve our work is to get feedback, both positive and negative.

Now that we're a quarter of the way into the season, our sample of suggestions and warnings is sufficient to vet our work here. In the meantime, let's take a look at some players we've featured here and how they've performed recently.

Felix Doubront was one of the most dropped players at CBS this week, going from 52 percent ownership to 37 percent after being demoted to the bullpen briefly for Allen Webster, who got hit around by the Twins and was then sent back to Triple-A.

Doubront is now back in the rotation, and with an ERA that is 3.58 higher than his FIP (6.40 vs. 2.82) there's a chance to capitalize on a short-term blip in ownership rates. He's a better and more valuable player than the current ownership rates would suggest.

Luis Valbuena has continued his strong play and is still very available in fantasy leagues. He "suffered" a pinkie injury last week, but the team believes (for now) that he'll avoid a stint on the disabled list. The really good news here (for Valbuena and his owners) is that the Cubs also outrighted Ian Stewart to Triple-A and removed him from their 40-man roster, so it appears as though he's further than ever from reclaiming the third base job in Chicago.

Valbuena's stock, therefore, is higher than ever, and the fact that he qualifies at second base as well in many leagues only adds to that value. He's underowned right now, and those seeking help at third or second should take a look.

Kevin Slowey continues to excel, and although his ownership rate is approaching 50 percent on CBS, he's still undervalued by fantasy leagues. Roberto Hernandez also continues to pitch well, and his ownership rate is still down at just 13 percent. That needs to change.

This week we look at a pair of Chicago starting pitchers set to return soon, and a pair of American League first basemen who have been quietly excellent in 2013.

Matt Garza | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 26.3 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 52 percent; CBS: 70 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 9-8, 3.68 ERA in 151.2 innings pitched

John Danks | Chicago White Sox | SP | ESPN: 0.0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 11 percent
YTD: N/A
ZiPS Projection: 8-7, 4.50 ERA in 126 innings pitched

It's rare that we feature such big names here in the Waiver Wire, and rarer still that a player owned by 70 percent of CBS leagues could be deemed a value to fantasy league owners. But such is the case here with Matt Garza, who made his third rehab start Saturday and second at Double-A. He looked solid in doing so, and looks to be two more rehab starts away from rejoining the Cubs. When he's back, his ownership rates should be closer to 90 percent than 70 percent.

Garza had been very good for the Cubs prior to his injury, and assuming his stuff is back where it once was (and there's no reason to believe it's not), there's no reason he can't provide value with his solid ERA and high strikeout totals. Garza has posted ERAs under 4.00 every year since 2007 with strikeout rates over 20 percent and walk rates under 10 percent. He's very good, and if he shows himself to be healthy, he should be owned in pretty much every league.

John Danks is another story. The last time he had a sub-4.00 ERA season was 2010, which also was the last time he was healthy all season. Since that time, his strikeouts have been down and his walks have been up.

If he's 2012 Danks, where he walked almost as many batters as he struck out, he's of little use for fantasy managers. But if he proves those numbers were the result of being injured and can post rates closer to his 2011 figures, he could be a diamond in the rough. Time will tell.

Recommendation: Let this serve as a reminder that two players who should be on your radar are nearing return. Garza should be added now in all leagues. With Danks, I'm inclined to wait until he shows me the Danks of old before I buy in.

James Loney | Tampa Bay Rays | 1B | ESPN: 26.2 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 18 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .371/.426/.533 in 116 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .293/.348/.420 in 545 plate appearances

Mitch Moreland | Texas Rangers | 1B | ESPN: 24.9 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 13 percent; CBS: 38 percent
YTD: .293/.343/.528 in 134 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .275/.330/.467 in 535 plate appearances

It's important to note right off the bat what James Loney will not do. Namely, he's not going to hit for power, and he's not going to fare well against left-handed pitching. Still, it's equally important to state that he has the 13th-highest wOBA in Major League Baseball right now. No, I am not kidding.

After putting up a paltry .272 mark last year, Loney currently is at .414. Mike Petriello took a look at Loney last week and pointed out that part of the reason he's succeeding is because he's swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone, making more contact with the pitches he is swinging at, and the Rays have sheltered him against lefties.

Loney is due for a drop across the board because of his unsustainable BABIP of .402, but he is still a player who walks a bunch, can make consistent contact, and plays strong defense that will help keep him in the lineup. Against right-handed opponents, he's not a bad play.

A play I like even more, though, is Mitch Moreland. The Rangers' first baseman doesn't walk as much as Loney and strikes out more, but he does have more power, having put up an ISO of .236 this year and a career ISO of .184.

It's interesting to note that Tampa Bay's offense actually has been better than the Rangers' to this point, although given both lineups and the park effects of their respective home parks, I'm not sure I would expect that to continue all season.

Recommendation: Neither of these guys is going to be Joey Votto for you, but you could do worse, especially while both continue to be penciled into their respective lineups on a daily basis. In deeper leagues and AL-only ones, they're worth pursuing if you have a need at first base or corner infielder.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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The Hot Seat

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:04am

There’s no better indicator of a player on the hot seat than the dreaded vote of confidence. On Friday, the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported that the Twins will keep Pedro Hernandez in the starting rotation for at least one more start. Sounds like a guy with a firm hold on his job to me! It's time to take a look at why Hernandez will lose his rotation spot in the near future and who could replace him.

To begin with, Hernandez is not long for this rotation, no matter what the Twins are telling the media. The 24-year-old lefty is a prototype left-handed specialist who somehow is starting baseball games—major league baseball games, at that. Andrew Berg, my podcast co-host, referred to Hernandez a couple weeks ago as “the loogiest of loogies.” Andrew, as he often is, was very much right on this one. Hernandez’s split stats so far this season tell the whole story:

vs L: 34 batters faced, .147/.147/.206 (.151 wOBA), 0 BB, 5 K
vs R: 67 batters faced, .414/.493/.810 (.542 wOBA), 9 BB, 4 K

Wow. Just look at those numbers. When a righty comes to the plate against Hernandez, there’s essentially a 50/50 shot of him getting on base. Then consider the fact that he’s also served up five homers to righties and none to lefties.

But wait, there’s more! Twelve of the 67 righties Hernandez has faced have tagged him for an extra-base hit. Yes, there is seriously a starting pitcher in a major league rotation who is currently surrendering extra-base hits to 18 percent of the right-handed hitters he faces.

Clearly, this little experiment won’t continue for long. To be fair to Hernandez, it’s not that he’s a bad pitcher. He’s just been put in a situation that does not suit his skills. If I was a manager, I’d love to have a lefty-killer like him in my bullpen.

So who takes his spot when Hernandez inevitably loses it? On the 25-man roster, the Twins have some pretty dreary alternatives. Cole DeVries is currently rehabbing his forearm injury but isn’t expected back for at least a couple more weeks. Anthony Swarzak and Ryan Pressly have been starters in the past, but neither of them could be considered anything resembling a long-term option.

Actually, if you’re not a Twins fan and you know who both Swarzak and Pressly are, pat yourself on the back. To be completely honest, I’m a lifelong Twins fan, and I had no clue who Pressly was until a couple months ago when I saw him pitching in a spring training game. Once I looked into his numbers and realized that he put up a tasty 6.28 ERA and 1.47 WHIP in High-A ball last year, I forgave myself for the oversight.

It is possible the Twins will use some combination of Hernandez, Swarzak and Pressly until DeVries is fully healthy. DeVries, however, is no great shakes himself. Sure, his 4.11 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 87.2 innings last year look pretty good on the surface, but then you see the .258 BABIP and the 4.90 FIP, and you start to back away.

Then you stumble upon the fact that the Twins turned him from a starter to a reliever in 2010, when he was struggling mightily in his second Double-A season, only to turn him back into a starter last season in Triple-A. In short, the guy the Twins are waiting to get back off the DL to fill the fifth starter’s spot is the same guy they gave up on as a starter in the minors three years ago. Sounds promising!

The long-term answer for the Twins clearly is top pitching prospect Kyle Gibson. The only real question is how long the club will wait to bring him up. The window of opportunity obviously is there (this is the same team that featured Vance Worley as its Opening Day starter this year), and Gibson certainly is pitching like a guy who can improve that rotation.

The 25-year-old righty has bounced back nicely from undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011 and is having a great season in Triple-A. In 40.2 innings over seven starts this year, Gibson has pitched to a 3.32 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 2.93 FIP, with 35 strikeouts against 11 walks.

Gibson has many of the characteristics of the traditional “Twins starter,” such as the groundball tendencies, low-90s fastball and good command. The difference here is that Gibson stands 6-foot-6 and actually can strike guys out, with a career 8.1 K/9 rate in the minors and the stuff to strike out major-league hitters as well (both his slider and change-up are above-average offerings). His height gives all of his pitches tremendous downward plane, which gives him a bit of deception in the delivery as well as the ability to generate grounders.

Have you guessed yet that I really like Kyle Gibson? He’s ready to be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 starter right now, and as the Twins have demonstrated with Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia, they’re more than willing to give their top prospects long looks in the majors this year.

Also of interest is that Gibson’s last Triple-A start (a four-hit shutout) was on Wednesday, which just so happens to be the same day Hernandez was getting ripped for six runs in just two innings with the big-league club. Gibson’s next start is Monday, the same day Hernandez probably will be getting shelled by the White Sox. You get the idea.

As I said earlier, it’s not a question of whether Gibson will be in the Twins rotation this year; it’s more of a question of whether it will be next week or next month. And once he gets there, he’ll be pitching half his games in Target Field, one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in the majors.

Be aware that Gibson’s innings likely will be limited this year as it is his first full season after Tommy John surgery, but I don’t expect his performance to be limited at all. Go ahead and stash him in AL-only leagues right now; don’t wait until he’s up and you have to blow a bunch of your FAAB budget on him.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

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Friday, May 10, 2013

The daily grind: 5-10-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 7:22am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of daily league specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Ross Detwiler isn't as good as his ERA. He is a solid pitcher, though, and the Cubs don't have a ton of firepower.

Wade Davis receives a recommendation only because the options for today are very shallow. This is a use-only-if-you-must match-up against the Yanquis.

Jose Fernandez is technically under my ownership threshold, as he's owned in 44 percent of leagues. He'll face the Dodgers, but I have a feeling he's not available to many of my readers.

Matt Magill is on the other side of that match-up. I don't know much about Magill except that he's facing the Marlins.

Pitcher (bum): This is another day where I can go on and on about the bad pitchers.

The Diamondbacks should enjoy facing Tyler Cloyd. He has a very similar skill set to Colby Lewis, but it took Lewis a trip overseas before he figured out how to succeed in the majors.

The Cardinals have a difficult offense, and Jon Garland is still on my exploitation list.

Dallas Keuchel has a tough assignment against the Rangers.

The Orioles face Mike Pelfrey, while the Reds will see Ramon Ortiz.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should get some time against Detwiler.

I'm a big Domonic Brown fan, and while I think his development path will be slow, certain match-ups like Ian Kennedy are worth using.

Ride the streak with Daniel Nava. At the end of the day, I don't think his HR+SB total will be worth owning, but he's certainly earning A+ marks for streaming.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra gets that Cloyd match-up.

Craig Gentry shall be freed today.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but he sees another tough lefty in Jon Lester.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is still available for recommendation at 27-percent owned. The Rays are one of the leaner AL offenses.

The Dodgers aren't very good, so you might want to try Kevin Slowey in H2H leagues, given the paucity of stream-able starters tomorrow.

Pitcher (bum): Edwin Jackson has struggled this season, and the Nationals are a tough assignment.

Vance Worley has a difficult match-up with the Orioles.

The Pirates and Orioles are both using TBA. I don't know how he'll be in two places at once.

The Rangers face Erik Bedard.

Hitter (power): The Red Sox face Mark Buehrle, so it's a good day to use Jonny Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Will Venable against Jeremy Hellickson.

Hang on to Gentry for the Bedard match-up.

Noteworthy news

Zack Greinke, Brandon Beachy, and Johnny Cueto are nearing rehab assignments.

Weather watch

The Brewers and Reds have a high probability of seeing thunderstorms throughout the game. Postponement would not be surprising.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. III

Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:17am

As Week 6 draws to a close, I’ll choose to sing the praises of waiver wire protege and current success story Scott Kazmir, who slammed the door on Oakland in a 10-strikeout performance yesterday. Obviously, he’s already starting to gain traction in mixed leagues, as is Dee Gordon, who was hitting above .300 since his call-up last week. Meanwhile, I’ll choose to look down at the ground and rub my neck as I mention the likes of Lucas Harrell and Jose Quintana, neither of whom have impressed all that much since making cameo appearances on the wire. I’d also be remiss if I didn’t mention how Jack Weiland, my waiver wire wingman, somewhat courageously suggested that John Lackey could once again be useful in mixed leagues, evidenced by three decent starts entering Thursday’s action.

Today, we’ll take a look at two troubled bullpens in Boston and Arizona as we mine for fantasy gold. In both cases, my column is a couple of days behind the ball, but surely some of these guys are still available in enough leagues as we near the beginning of Week 7, so let’s get started.

Junichi Tazawa | RP | Boston Red Sox | 50 percent Yahoo ownership; 55.8 percent ESPN; 35 percent CBS
YTD: 15.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 11.15 K/9 / 1.76 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 78 IP / 3.45 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 2.91 BB/9

Andrew Bailey and Joel Hanrahan hit the DL this week within three days of each other, plunging the Red Sox’ rotation into a crisis. The bullpen’s depth zapped, the Red Sox have deployed Tazawa, 26, as the team’s closer, a role he’ll retain at least heading into the upcoming week.

Bailey, 28, who excelled in the role in his brief time at the closer’s helm, is ailing from sore right biceps he suffered late last month, and on Monday, he was retroactively placed on the DL. Meanwhile, Hanrahan hit the disabled list on Wednesday with a forearm strain after he “just couldn’t take it anymore” two days earlier in a blown save against the Twins. Although an early MRI showed no structural damage in Hanrahan’s elbow, the team moved him to the 60-day DL yesterday, and even if he doesn’t undergo surgery, it’s clear that his fantasy value has been nuked for much of 2013, making him droppable across the board.

From a fantasy perspective, it’s a bit unfortunate that Tazawa is stuck behind two established closers in the Red Sox’ bullpen, because his credentials at the age of 26 are nice to look at: 8.31 K/9 and a 1.87 walk rate, a career 3.23 FIP in 86.2 innings and a strong ability to strand runners. This year, he’s off to an even better start, and has seen his average fastball velocity tick up to 93 mph, though he does have two blown saves among his 16 appearances.

Unless Bailey’s injury is more catastrophic than was originally let on, there’s no chance we’re looking at a new long-term closer change right now, despite Tazawa’s appeal. Heck, Bailey is due to come back on Tuesday, so Tazawa might not even have that much value for owners in weekly leagues looking to pick up some cheap saves in Week 7. We’ll keep an eye on Bailey’s progress (and whether he'll need a rehab assignment early next week), and with Hanrahan gone, Tazawa is now the logical No. 2 man in Boston’s bullpen. Considering the Jersey boy's own vulnerability, a future scenario where Tazawa gets another chance to step up in 2013 is not inconceivable.

Recommendation: Green light in all leagues until Bailey’s return.

Heath Bell | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 40 percent Yahoo ownership; 35.8 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 2.64 FIP / 12.56 K/9 / 1.88 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 62.3 IP / 3.10 FIP / 9.67 K/9 / 2.89 BB/9

David Hernandez | Arizona Diamondbacks | RP | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 11.5 percent ESPN; 18 percent CBS
YTD: 15.2 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.19 K/9 / 4.60 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 68.2 IP / 3.70 FIP / 10.75 K/9 / 3.93 BB/9

It’s been a good run in Arizona for J.J. Putz, who’s been a top fantasy earner for the past two seasons. But those days seem to be quickly nearing an end, as the right-hander is plagued by a right elbow strain. For a guy who’s gotten positively abused so far in 2013 (four blown saves in nine chances and a 1.58 WHIP), this news sounds not the least bit ominous, and Putz owners need to untangle themselves from the 36-year-old’s immediate future right away.

That could set up a classic closer battle in Arizona, featuring an experienced name player in Bell and a top set up man in Hernandez, both of whom are qualified for the job.

We’ll start with Bell, whom manager Kirk Gibson said on Wednesday would get first dibs at the ninth inning, proving it by letting him earn the save that night against the Dodgers. Still, despite averaging 38 saves over the past four seasons and being considered a top reliever on the free agent market just 18 months ago, Bell hardly steps up immediately as a set-him-and-forget-him closer option, not after he was demoted by the Marlins last year following a nightmarish first half. In 2013, Bell’s slightly diminished fastball velocity might be responsible for what’s been a bad 29.7 percent line drive rate, which in turn is manifested in an unsightly .417 BABIP. At the same time, however, I’m encouraged by a 9.2 swinging strike rate and the 12.56 K/9 it’s produced, especially in contrast to a 1.88 BB/9, even if it’s necessary to acknowledge what’s just a 15-appearance sample size.

But since we won’t know for a while if Bell can fully regain the magic of his Padres days, we might as well familiarize himself with Hernandez, Arizona’s eighth-inning guardian. With a combined a 2.94 ERA, 11.4 K/9 and 1.08 WHIP between 2011 and 2012, Hernandez, who turns 28 on Monday, established himself as one of the National League’s best setup men entering the year. But it’s been a rough start to 2013 for him so far, and with Gibson clearly preferring Bell’s experience, Hernandez is merely a handcuff option in fantasy until the ex-Padre falters.

Recommendation: Add Bell across the board while keeping an eye on Hernandez.

Kelly Johnson | Tampa Bay Rays | 2B | 24 percent Yahoo ownership; 33 percent ESPN; 44 percent CBS
YTD: 105 PA / .283 / .362 / .489 with 5 HR and 4 SB
ZiPS updated: 559 PA / .239 / .325 / .409 with 19 HR and 14 SB

Back in the good old days of early 2011, Johnson ranked among the top second basemen to target in fantasy, coming off a .866 OPS season that was padded with 26 homers and 13 steals. Unfortunately, the batting average took a nosedive in the next two seasons, and by the time 2013 dawned, the 31-year-old had dipped below the radar screens of many mixed league owners.

But as we embark to enter Week 7, we applaud Johnson’s .283 average and 138 wRC+, because not only are those numbers solid, but they’re even more valuable as a middle infielder. Too bad they’re largely the byproduct of a BABIP surge (.339 entering Thursday’s action) and a generous HR/FB rate that is out of character for an eight-year veteran. It’d be nice to believe that Johnson’s bat has suddenly been invigorated with some kind of magic power, but a 15 percent line drive rate is nothing to write home about, especially as his strikeout rate remains stuck at nearly 25 percent.

Obviously, a second baseman with pop will find a home in large pockets of fantasy baseball, and in Johnson’s case, his outfield eligibility will make him even more attractive. But his value will take a dive once his batting average comes back down to earth, and with hurlers like Jon Lester, Jason Hammel and Wei-Yin Chen lined up in Week 7, that decline might get started in the very near future.

Recommendation: I’m passing in mixed leagues unless someone I care about gets hurt.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, May 09, 2013

The Roto Grotto: rates versus opportunities

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:33am

Z-Scores allow you to compare rate and counting statistics because they scale each category based on the average and standard deviation of that category. However, they do not address the issue of opportunity. As a reader pointed out last week, Felix Hernandez went one for three last season, but his .333 batting average was not more valuable in fantasy than the .319 batting average Ryan Braun produced over 598 at bats.

There are several reasons there is not an easy answer. First, the issue applies to counting stats as well as rate stats. Last season, Jose Reyes and Ben Revere each stole 40 bases, but Reyes needed 716 plate appearances while Revere needed only 553 plate appearances. If you were only concerned about winning steals, then Revere was clearly more valuable. You could replace him with a waiver-wire player for the 36 fewer games he played than Reyes and pick up a handful of extra steals.

The Reyes-Revere example illustrates the second complication. There is an additional underlying opportunity that owners have to consider, which is chances to start a player. Hypothetically, two players could have the same number of plate appearances and the same number of stolen bases but play in a different number of games. Over the course of the season, the difference in number of plate appearances for players batting in different spots in the order or batting in the same spot but on teams with different offensive levels can be significant, as Tristan Cockcroft of ESPN recently showed. In addition, players with clear platoon splits tend to pinch hit or be pulled in the late innings of games because of pitcher match-ups.

So, for every statistic, you need to account for opportunities to start a player, and with rate statistics, you need to account for differences in opportunities within each opportunity to start. Your league type will determine the number of opportunities you have to start a player, but I’ll consider leagues with daily lineups for this so I can use games played to approximate it.

First, I calculated each counting stat per games played. Returning to an earlier example, Jose Reyes stole 40 bases in 160 games in 2012, which is 0.25 steals per game. Ben Revere stole 40 bases in 124 games, which is 0.32 steals per game.

Next, I calculated the Z-Scores of counting stats per game. I followed the same method that I used to calculate the Z-Scores for season totals, but substituted the means and standard deviations of those per game statistics. Reyes and Revere had a zSB of 4.00 and 2.90, respectively.

For rate stats, the per game averages are the same as the season averages, but I can then scale those Z-Scores based on opportunities. Last season, Derek Jeter led baseball with 683 at bats. I can use that as my denominator. For example, Felix Hernandez had a raw Z-Score of about 2.45 because of his .333 batting average. However, if I scale that with his three at bats divided by the 683 maximum possible at bats, his scaled zAvg is only 0.01. In contrast, Ryan Braun has a scaled zAvg of 1.63 despite a lesser .319 average because of his 598 at bats.

Now, I finally have counting and rate stats apples to apples. A simple addition of the Z-Scores in each category provides an overall value, similar to a player rate. Here is the top-10 from 2012:

Player	Season	zHR	zSB	zRBI	zRun	zAvg	zTotal
Mike Trout	2012	1.88	4.45	1.33	3.71	1.66	13.02
Ryan Braun	2012	2.64	2.06	2.11	2.13	1.63	10.57
Miguel Cabrera	2012	2.75	-0.51	2.92	1.96	1.95	9.07
Josh Hamilton	2012	3.01	-0.17	2.93	2.09	0.74	8.61
Andrew McCutchen	2012	1.60	1.04	1.41	1.99	1.80	7.85
Edwin Encarnacion	2012	2.82	0.42	2.12	1.54	0.63	7.52
Giancarlo Stanton	2012	3.16	-0.15	1.94	1.50	0.68	7.13
Jose Bautista	2012	3.05	-0.07	1.98	2.09	-0.14	6.92
Matt Kemp	2012	1.89	0.40	1.65	2.11	0.83	6.88

As you can see, different players reach the top in different ways. Four of the top-10 players are actually negative contributors in a category (or two).

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

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Swing rates: the John Farrell effect

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:30am

In 2012, the Boston Red Sox had exactly one pitcher finish inside the bottom 50 of major league baseball in a statistic called ‘Swing Rate Against,’ (tracked by Baseball Prospectus) which is the percentage of the time opposing hitters swing against a certain pitcher. Last year, the John Farrell-managed Blue Jays had five pitchers finish among the 50 lowest Swing Rates Against.

This year, without John Farrell, the Blue Jays currently have two pitchers in the bottom 50 in Swing Rate Against, and after adding him, the Red Sox have four pitchers in the bottom 20. Usually, a manager doesn’t have that much of an impact on the way already-established guys pitch, but Farrell is clearly a pitching-centric manager, and a swing that huge cannot solely be attributed to coincidence. So, what’s changed about the way the Red Sox pitchers are pitching this year?

Having a low swing rate itself doesn’t necessarily correlate to success. Pitchers can put up good stats with high or low swing rates—Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey are all in the top 10 highest Swing Rates Against so far this year. So, what specifically has changed about Ryan Dempster, Clay Buchholz, Jon Lester, and Felix Doubront to garner this lower Swing Rate Against, as well as make them improve as pitchers? Let’s go one by one and see how each has changed their pitching approach this season.

Clay Buchholz: Buchholz has shown the starkest improvement among the Red Sox starters this year, which was mirrored by him also having the starkest contrast in his Swing Rate Against the last two seasons. In 2012, Buchholz posted a 44.55 percent Swing Rate Against, good for 113th in baseball, whereas this year he has a 38.14 percent mark, good for 13th in the league.

That change can be largely attributed to a shift in Buchholz’s pitching style and control—in 2012, the Sox starter managed to land only 52.1 percent of his pitches in the strike zone, and this year he’s upped that number all the way to 66.8 percent. That has led to hitters chasing less against him, but on the other hand, also to way fewer hitter-friendly counts, allowing Buchholz to remain ahead of the hitter in most at bats against him. I think Buchholz’s newfound control is legitimate, and I have him in my top 25 starters the rest of the way.

Jon Lester: The biggest change for Lester this year has been the efficacy of his fastball. In his prime, Lester’s best pitch was his cutter, but as of last year (and continuing into this year) the pitch has been below average for him. The meat of Lester’s arsenal is his fastball/cutter combination, and if those two things can’t play off each other, he won’t have success.

That being said, this year, even if the cutter isn’t back to its old tricks, it is setting up his four seam fastball really nicely. This is leading the pitch to a Fangraphs pitch value of 5.3 so far this year, good for 12th among starters in the majors. Lester is utilizing both his four-seamer and cutter more than in 2012, using the two pitches 61 percent of the time (then) versus 69 percent of the time (now). Even if the cutter hasn’t shown efficacy itself, it has helped his fastball regain its former value. The more he uses both, the more comfortable he’ll be.

Ryan Dempster: Dempster already garnered very few swings-against coming into this year, with a 38.60 percent Swing Rate Against in 2012. That’s nothing compared to his 32.13 percent rate this year, good for lowest in the major leagues. Farrell has really shifted the way Dempster has used his arsenal, as he went from a mostly sinkers guy, throwing his fastball only 18 percent of the time in 2012, to a mostly fourseam fastballs guy, using it 41 percent of the time this season.

Not only is he using the fourseamer more, though, Dempster is also locating the pitch significantly better, largely by just not leaving it up as much. In 2012, he left his fastball in the upper part of the zone or higher 34.5 percent of the time, and so far in 2013 that number has dropped down to 25.5 percent despite using the pitch much more often. This improved command and greater utilization of the fastball has contributed to Dempster’s career-high strikeout rate and, while I don’t think he will stay at that 11.51 K/9 number, I do think he will finish the season above 9.0 K/9 for the first time in his career.

Felix Doubront: Doubront is the only pitcher on this list who is a true "buy low" right now. The biggest shift in Doubront’s pitching style makes the fact that he is garnering way less swings this year make a lot of sense: last year, 19.2 percent of his pitches were in the ‘middle plane’ of the strike zone (neither outside the zone nor on the inner or outer third). This season, only 15.7 percent of his pitches are in the middle plane and in the strike zone.

Focusing his attention on the inner and outer planes of the plate has led Doubront to elevate his walk rate, but as he works out the kinks and works on his control, he should be able to get that walk rate back down into the 4.0 BB/9 range. Right now, Doubront’s BABIP of .397 is the third highest in major league baseball, and that should lead savvy owners to be able to acquire him for a fraction of his value. Doubront has serious strikeout upside, and I’d project him for a 3.50-3.75 ERA the rest of the way with some solid positive regression.

Overall, the moral to the Red Sox story is that John Farrell isn’t the type of manager who has one, overarching theory that he applies to all of his pitchers; rather, he is the type of manager that takes each pitcher case by case and figures out the best strategy to maximize their specific talents. Going forward, any pitcher that goes to the Sox should be treated with the leeway we used to associate with Dave Duncan and still associate with Don Cooper—Farrell just has a way of figuring out how to make these guys pitch their best.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

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Wednesday, May 08, 2013

The daily grind: 5-8-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday, I expanded upon why Jonathan Pettibone has produced good results but isn't trustworthy. Still, a match-up against the Giants is potentially worth exploring. He's opposed by Barry Zito, who also might be worth an add.

A.J. Griffin should be owned in the majority of mixed leagues. He faces the Indians, which is a decent enough match-up to start.

Pitcher (bum): If Coors Field can dodge the rain in the forecast, the combination of David Phelps and Juan Nicasio promises runs.

The Astros will face Joe Blanton.

It's doubtful that Ricky Romero worked out his issues in one month.

Luis Mendoza will see the Orioles. Rain's in the forecast for this one, too.

Hitter (power): The readers let me get away with a silly recommendation for Travis Hafner yesterday, so I'll call myself out. At Coors, there is no DH.

Some regulars are worth a look including Brandon Moss, Seth Smith, Jonny Gomes, and Daniel Nava.

Carlos Pena against Blanton is another great match-up.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable is set to face Ricky Nolasco.

Rajai Davis will likely start, but has a difficult assignment against Matt Moore.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Bartolo Colon versus Scott Kazmir is an opportunity for two pitchers who may perform well. Kazmir is only for the ballsiest among us, but he's showing his strongest whiff rate since 2008 and is coming off an excellent start. He's likely to regress, but maybe he's that fluky guy who comes back from the dead.

John Lackey has looked solid thus far and might be worth a peek against the Twins. Personally, I'm worried about his high strikeout rate, which I think will decline since he's not generating more whiffs than usual.

Here's another heavily qualified recommendation: Julio Teheran. It's been a bit of a mixed bag with him this season. His velocity is down and he seems to be catching too much of the plate, which could explain an elevated BABIP and HR/FB ratio. On the plus side, he's limiting walks and generating plenty of whiffs, though they aren't translating to a high strikeout rate.

Pitcher (bum): One of these times I'll pick the Braves' feast or famine offense and they'll feast. They see Ryan Vogelsong tomorrow.

Let's see if I can jinx Dillon Gee into performing well. The Pirates have a solid lineup, so it will be a tough assignment for the struggling righty. His velocity is way down, so he is a candidate to be replaced by Ryan Wheeler when the time comes.

The Robinson Canos will face Jeff Francis, who's exploitable against any lineup not named the Marlins at this point. The Canos will be without their best hitter (statistically)—Hafner.

Hitter (power): Big Nate Freiman is likely to be in the lineup against Kazmir.

Break out the Pirates. Particularly, Garrett Jones and Travis Snider.

Jason Vargas is solid enough, but it's still worth giving Chris Carter a spin.

Brandon Belt seems to have a good match-up against Teheran.

Hitter (speed): Davis will see another tough lefty in David Price.

I don't usually reach for Kelly Johnson, but you can give him a try tomorrow against a struggling R.A. Dickey.

Noteworthy news

J.A. Happ was the latest victim of a comeback liner. He's reported to be stable.

Junichi Tazawa is expected to close for the Red Sox. I hope you have heard that already.

Weather watch

Games in Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland, Boston, Pittsburgh, New York, and Colorado could all see some amount of rain and storms. In other words, it's going to be a wet day across the majors.

These are my favorite days to play daily leagues because I can increase my odds of winning simply by selecting players in dry games.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. II

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:15am

Waiver wire pals, there is something I need to confess. Okay? Yes? Good. Here I go.

When it comes to the Red Sox closers, whom I feature here (seemingly) every week, because the situation changes (seemingly) every minute, I haven't got a clue. Zero clues to be had by this guy.

Last week as soon as I rejoiced that Andrew Bailey had been officially named the Red Sox closer, he missed a save opportunity with bicep soreness that ultimately landed him on the disabled list. Then replacement Joel Hanrahan, who himself had been replaced by Bailey but regained the closer role in Bailey's absence, landed back on the disabled list for the second time this season. So now it's ... you know what? Nope. Not going to do it. I give up. White flag, being waved, by yours truly.

Feels good to get this off my chest.

A recap of other recent players we've featured, now with less frustration!

Scott Feldman spun another gem Tuesday night, this time against the Rangers. I'd recommend him more strongly if I had any clue (gee, that sounds familiar) what the Cubs were going to do upon the return of Matt Garza, who made his second rehab start for the club and according to ESPN's Jesse Rogers is as few as 10 days away from returning. The team has five spots for Jeff Samardzija (not going anywhere), Edwin Jackson (probably not going anywhere), Matt Garza (when he returns), Carlos Villanueva (he of the 2.85 ERA), Travis Wood (2.50 ERA, and the only lefty in the rotation), and Feldman (lights out lately). Scott Baker will also return at some point (maybe), so the Cubs are looking at two men out here. Anyone who says they know what the Cubs will do with the rotation when Garza returns is Theo Epstein. Beyond that, they are full of bologna. Tread carefully here.

(Did I say less frustration? I don't recall saying that. That doesn't sound like something I would say.)

Hey, at least Kevin Slowey, Eric Stults, and Roberto Hernandez remain solid additions for owners in need of starting pitching.

Justin Ruggiano, a player Karl targeted earlier this year, has been hot of late as well.

Today let's look at a few other outfielders you may be thinking of adding.

Marcell Ozuna | Miami Marlins | OF | ESPN: 8.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 21 percent; CBS: 28 percent
YTD: .404/.448/.667 in 29 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .255/.303/.434 in 453 plate appearances

In lieu of ~~Mike~~ Giancarlo Stanton, the Marlins turned their lonely eyes to Marcell Ozuna, who made his debut last week at the tender age of 22, having played only 10 games at Double-A ball or higher. He's made quite an impression since, as his .476 wOBA can attest. Fantasy league owners have noticed as well, as his ownership rate at CBS jumped from two percent to 28 in one week.

I trotted over to the prospects desk here at THT Global Enterprises (not our real name, and "ambled" would be a more appropriate verb) to get in-house prospect guru Jeff Moore's take on the callup. His full thoughts can be found on his site here, but this is what he told me fantasy owners can expect from Ozuna this season:

In general, he can contribute some power, but it will come at the cost of batting average, and if it's a points league where strikeouts have a negative value, he won't even be worth the home runs. He's absolutely not ready, needed at least another full season in the minors. He's extremely talented but needed a lot more time to figure out how to use it.

I imagine he's only going to be there while Stanton is out, unless he plays well. The Marlins are desperate for power, so if he runs into a few home runs and keeps his batting average above .200, they could get greedy and try to pair him with Stanton. Either way, the league will figure him out and he's going to strike out a ton—enough that it won't let his power play in the majors, at least not yet.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in NL-only leagues, but Ozuna probably won't keep up his Bondsian level of production, and will probably struggle more than he's worth in mixed leagues. This is not the call-up of Wil Myers, who has seemingly been ready to give the majors a shot for two seasons now.

David DeJesus | Chicago Cubs | OF | ESPN: 7.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 5 percent; CBS: 18 percent
YTD: .286/.358/.561 in 109 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .269/.347/.440 in 521 plate appearances

Quick, who leads major league outfielders in ISO? Justin Upton? Okay. Let's make this a little tougher. Who is currently 13th?

Really, you guessed David DeJesus? Is it because his name appears in bold five lines above this? I need to get better at this stuff.

Anyway, yeah, David DeJesus is tearing the cover off the ball right now, and nobody seems to care. So, is it real? Should you rush out and add him? The answer is a little complicated.

First and foremost: no, the power is not real. The last time DeJesus had this kind of power was during a 12-game (small sample) stint in 2003, his first taste of major league baseball. Since then he's played 1,173 games, and his careeer ISO is .140, with a high of .152 and a low of .112. He's had consistently decent power, but he's never been a big bopper.

Digging further into his 2013 numbers, DeJesus' current HR/FB rate of 14.3 percent is more than double his career average of 6.8 percent. He's unlikely to sustain that level all season, and accordingly his power will drop as well.

But is he worth owning otherwise? If your league rewards walks (or on-base) and you could use a boost in runs, then DeJesus can help.

Recommendation: He can help, but not in the ways it might seem by taking a quick glance down the list of NL OPS leaders.

Matt Joyce | Tampa Bay Rays | OF | ESPN: 24.7 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 31 percent
YTD: .212/.237/.435 in 94 plate appearances
ZiPS Updated Projection: .237/.329/.436 in 493 plate appearances

It's easy to forget about Matt Joyce, what with all of the hubbub around Wil Myers and all. His .212 batting average doesn't help him stand out in a positive way, either.

Aside from that, though, there's a capable player buried in here, and one who is currently undervalued by fantasy leagues, especially those with Yahoo! and CBS. It's interesting that his ownership rates in ESPN leagues are relatively high, especially considering ESPN leagues are generally the shallowest, and by a wide margin.

Assuming Joyce can bring his line drive rate up from his absurdly low 9.5 percent, his BABIP of .203 should also rise, and with it his batting average. This will make his triple slash line look much more attractive. He'll never challenge for the Triple Crown, but he can provide power and plenty of walks.

Recommendation:Worth adding for outfield help in mixed leagues.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Tuesday, May 07, 2013

The daily grind: 5-7-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): There are a few good arms for today, but none of them have a particularly friendly match-up.

Justin Grimm is making his way onto my teams but he has a tough assignment in the Brewers.

Zach McAllister is a frequent denizen of the Grind, but a game against the A's is no easy task.

J.A. Happ sees the worst lineup of the bunch when he faces the Rays, but he's also the least talented of this trio.

Pitcher (bum): If the Pirates game isn't interrupted, I'll predict continuing struggles for Aaron Harang. I do think he'll settle down eventually, but he may need a few more starts.

I'll take the Red Sox over lefty Scott Diamond.

Hitter (power): Brandon Belt has warmed up recently. Kyle Kendrick is still expected to be lefty prone, although AT&T Park is not the best place to bet on home runs.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava will face the above-mentioned Diamond.

C.J. Wilson isn't looking like much more than a decent arm these days. Chris Carter could benefit.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra is set to face Josh Beckett.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone has gotten good results thus far, but I wouldn't necessarily trust that. In particular, a strikeout rate around seven K/9 seems fluky when combined with a 4.4 percent whiff rate. Something has to give there. He's also walking only about one batter per nine innings, which doesn't jibe with his minor league performances. In short, expect fewer strikeouts, more walks, and an overall mediocre line.

Barry Zito opposes Pettibone. I was a bit surprised to find him 47 percent owned. The Phillies aren't a very offensive-minded club, which is the only reason I mention Zito.

A.J. Griffin is 36 percent owned and too good to be available on waivers. Do note that he's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, so you might want to stay away from bandboxes.

Felix Doubront has a pleasant match-up against the Twins. His 5.67 ERA belies a 2.87 FIP.

Pitcher (bum): Last week I recommended in favor of David Phelps. This week, I recommend against. He pitches in Coors tomorrow and is opposed by another exploitable pitcher, Juan Nicasio.

I think the Astros will like facing Joe Blanton.

Ricky Romero is back, but it's too soon to say if he's any better.

I'll draw the line at Luis Mendoza against the Orioles, but I could name more exploitable pitchers.

Hitter (power): Justin Masterson still has slight lefty problems, so this is a good day to go with Seth Smith and Brandon Moss route.

Another lefty and another start for Gomes and Nava.

Is Carlos Pena still around? Because Blanton is a juicy match-up for him.

Travis Hafner is 40 percent owned, but where he is available, a start against Nicasio in Coors seems quite enjoyable.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable will see Ricky Nolasco.

Lefty Matt Moore means Rajai Davis will probably start. Unfortunately, the match-up is difficult.

Weather watch

Storms are expected to interrupt several east coast games, affecting the Tigers, Nationals, Mariners, Pirates, Royals, and Orioles. The Braves and Reds may see a touch of the same storm system.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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A.J. Ellis: hardly swinging, hardly missing

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:09am

Last week, Dave Cameron wrote an excellent piece on Josh Hamilton and the degradation of his batting eye. Hamilton has been swinging at some terrible pitches this season, and pitchers are beginning to figure out that they can throw just about anything to get Hamilton out.

We’ve seen only a month of baseball, and we all know how meaningful many results thus far are. The good thing about plate discipline statistics, however, is that they don’t take much time to stabilize. Things will obviously change over the course of a season, but April plate discipline data give us something more meaningful to talk about than any April counting statistic does.

With this in mind, I began to look through the FanGraphs plate discipline leaders of 2013. If you sort the leader board one way, you’ll find the league’s free swingers. We know these guys pretty well. Hamilton is ruining his career, while Pablo Sandoval (somehow) continues to make a living off hitting terrible pitches. We hear a lot about this group, and it makes sense that we do. We enjoy watching hitters flail at all sorts of pitches—sometimes connecting, and sometimes looking like Vladimir Guerrero after a night out.

If you sort the leader board the other way, though, you’ll find a group that gets a lot less notoriety (well, at least outside of the sabermetric community). These plate discipline leaders swing at pitches outside the strike zone about a third of the time a Sandoval or Hamilton does. At the top of this list (and by a large margin), you’ll find A.J. Ellis.

Ellis has always had above-average plate discipline, but his eye really improved in 2012. Last year, Ellis saw more pitches per plate appearance (4.43) than any other major league hitter. This year, he remains on top in that regard. The catcher has swung at 13.4 percent of all pitches he has seen outside of the strike zone. He has whiffed at only 23 pitches (out of 473) thus far.

When a career backup catcher suddenly grabs hold of a major league starting job after almost 10 years in the minor leagues, you would think that we would take notice. Ellis has managed to stay under the radar, since he doesn’t hit for power (or average, for that matter). Manager Don Mattingly has typically slotted Ellis in the five or six spot for Los Angeles, and it is possible that he benefits from hitting in the heart of the lineup, behind Matt Kemp, Adrian Gonzalez and Andre Ethier. These hitters have average plate discipline, but they sure appear more threatening than Ellis does. Is it possible that, after dancing around these three hitters, pitchers give Ellis great pitches to hit?

This argument is a convincing one, and the data provide some support for it. This season, 48.3 percent of all pitches Ellis has seen have been in the strike zone. In 2012, the overall league zone percentage was 44.9. Ellis has seen a significantly greater number of pitches in the zone this year than the average hitter typically does, and his high walk totals become even more impressive in this context. However, Ellis posted similar (though not quite as spectacular) plate discipline rates in 2012, a year in which he hit primarily out of the eight hole.

Ellis is also seeing a relatively high number of fastballs (66 percent of all pitches seen) this season, which is obviously working to his advantage in terms of plate discipline and overall offensive production. I do buy the argument that pitchers will throw relatively more fastballs to Ellis after facing Kemp, Gonzalez and Ethier, but we can’t evaluate that argument until we see Ellis hit in other lineup spots.

Is it sustainable?

It’s extremely likely that we will see Ellis’ discipline regress, since he is outperforming his 2012 plate discipline rates. Ellis can continue to be valuable asset for the Dodgers, but it is quite possible that he will have to start swinging the bat a little more often if he is going to do that. Only Brett Gardner and Bobby Abreu have posted lower swing percentages over the last three years, and these hitters give pitchers added motivation to throw strikes. Gardner is dangerous when gets on base, and Abreu could still hit for power when he posted a swing rate of 32.9 percent.

Some might hope that Ellis will start to hit the ball harder when does swing thebat. He will continue to see a good number of fastballs, but he won’t if he starts to hit for power. If Ellis becomes a hitting threat, as opposed to a walking threat, pitchers will also start to offer him fewer pitches in the strike zone.

Kevin Youkilis exemplifies this evolution well. In his early years, Youkilis posted high on-base percentages and little power. Many criticized his patient ways, and some argued that he didn’t hit enough home runs to be a major league corner infielder. In 2008, Youkilis responded with more than a few of those home runs. His zone percentage fell after that breakout year, and he began to see a lot more breaking balls. Youkilis responded well as his plate discipline skills were really put to the test, and he became much more valuable offensively.

This is obviously all speculation, as Ellis has more than a few hills to climb before becoming the next Kevin Youkilis. In many ways, Scott Hatteberg is a much more realistic comparison. Hatteberg’s inability to hit for power was really a blessing in disguise, as his ability to get on base was continually overlooked by pitchers and opposing pitching coaches.

A.J. Ellis has found a way to be successful at the major league level, and I’m sure he isn’t going to try to fix what isn’t broken. The Dodgers should be delighted with what they are getting out of their 32-year-old catcher. While I did bring some attention to his name with this article, my real hope is that we all continue to overlook A.J. Ellis. That’s how the Scott Hattebergs of the world operate best.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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Baseball Press: a fantasy secret weapon

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:02am

It's tough to recall the exact moment I first discovered Baseball Press, but I do know it's been a daily stop the past two seasons, and with good reason. In standard leagues, you might be able to get away with a set it and forget it approach. But for those of us in deeper leagues, ones where platoon and part-time players have value, the aggregation provided by Baseball Press is invaluable.

Some of the features Baseball Press offers include lineup information almost as it happens, probable starting pitchers, recent bullpen pitch counts, a log of the recent lineups for all 30 teams, and weather reports for that day's games. I recently sat down (across the interwebs) with one of the founders and operators of Baseball Press, Reggie Yinger, to get the story behind the site, and to find out where it's headed next.

Q: How did Baseball Press begin? Was there a void you saw for the information you present, or was this information you saw elsewhere that you thought could be presented better?

Yinger: Baseball Press began in the summer of 2009. I approached a friend who is also a computer programmer and wanted to create my own fantasy baseball site. Previously, I had written baseball articles for other websites, but really wanted the freedom to do my own thing. I think we saw a void in baseball sites as most have a "cookie-cutter" feel and we wanted to get away from that, providing a unique and different approach.

How many users do you guys currently have? How much has it grown since 2009? And was it slow and steady, or was there a period in which you saw a large uptick in traffic?

Yinger: According to our analytics, just under 100,000 people have come to Baseball Press in April. However, since we don't sell anything, we focus more on page views and feedback to determine user interest rather than isolating users, so the growth we view is based on traffic not users. And based on traffic, we saw a substantial jump in traffic in 2009 when we decided to do lineups, and it's been doubling every year since then.

What were your original intentions for the site when it began? How has it evolved since?

Yinger: Good question. I think the original intent in 2009 was to have a website where myself and other potential writers could write about fantasy baseball and have an "anything goes" mentality. We tried to focus on "fantasy baseball" but really wanted to write about anything baseball related. I thought we might write a few articles here and there, and to be honest, I thought the "coolness" of a website might die out. However, we first added lineup information to the website in 2011 and have really focused on helping fantasy baseball players since 2011. We added all MLB lineups in 2011, the My Lineup feature in 2012, and then the Bullpen Usage report in 2013. So yeah, I would say we have evolved to helping fantasy baseball players (like myself).

How the sausage is made: how does Baseball Press work? Is it updated manually when you find lineups posted online? Do you have go-to sources? Or is it automated in some way? How long does it take for lineups to be posted before they appear on Baseball Press?

Yinger: The sausage is made quite easily. I first designed the lineup concept during spring training in 2011 and it was originally updated manually. However, as you can imagine, this resulted in constantly having someone watch lineup information in case of scratches. However, after myself and the other co-founder noticed that the MLB Lineups feature was catching on, we decided to do some computer programming and automate the process. We use multiple sources that consist of beat writers and team affiliated accounts, with a majority of the information coming from Twitter. We typically hope to have lineups for all games within our system and on the website 3-4 hours before the game and we feel like we accomplished this. However, in some cases, we may post a lineup an hour before the game, depending on the source.

Can you quantify the value of the information on your site, particularly for owners in daily leagues? How much of an advantage do you see in having lineup information as it becomes available, and also weather reports, recent bullpen usage, etc?

Yinger: I'm a huge fantasy baseball nerd and I know that this tool is invaluable. Fantasy baseball websites that host the leagues (ESPN, Yahoo!, etc) try to inform users if a player isn't starting, but this information is typically delayed or incorrect. I think having this information hours before a game is great for daily league players because it allows owners to prepare their team for that night's games, whether it be reviewing ballpark factors, weather, or matchups for pitchers vs. batters.

Speaking of the bullpen usage: is that a new feature, or one I just never noticed last year? What practical use do you see for owners using this feature?

Yinger: The bullpen usage is a new feature for 2013. The story behind this feature is simple. I currently play in a fantasy league that counts "holds" as a category. I really dislike fantasy pitching categories and decided I would "stream relievers" simply for the ability to pick up "holds". For example, if David Hernandez has thrown two or three days in a row, he's likely to have off the next day. With the Bullpen Usage page, I can see this information and pick up another late inning reliever for the day in order to try and accumulate a "hold". If you're not into holds, I think owners can use this information to try and pick up "saves" on the cheap. If they see Jason Grilli has pitched three days in a row, they might try and pick up Mark Melancon from the waiver wire. It's also just a nifty tool to see how managers are using their bullpen.

Is there a reason lineups only go back one week, and there is not a deeper historical archive of team's lineups?

Yinger: Lineups currently go back one week (or the last 7 games) on the team page only. However, if you want to see older data, you can go to the main lineups page and select the date and view all lineups from that date. I think you have just booked our next project with that question.

You mentioned on the site that you will not be creating an application that works with Apple products, but that you are working to make the mobile site sufficient for all smartphone users to use. How is that progressing? Do you have an ETA for that mobile site to be running?

Yinger: After great success with our Android application in the Google Play store, we decided to try and make an Apple application. Unfortunately, Apple rejected our application and deemed it to be "too simple". We decided to not continue down the path with Apple after a first rejection (for cost and time reasons). To try and make every mobile device happy (tablets and phones), we've decided to make the entire Baseball Press website mobile friendly. This means that iPhone users can view all the information on their phones and not have to worry about formatting. The progress is coming along nicely. We pushed back the mobile functionality in order to have the Bullpen Usage page ready and in production before the season started. We should have the mobile design finished by mid to late May.

What's cooking for the future of Baseball Press? Any big developments we should get excited about?

Yinger: Considering 30 percent of our viewers are looking at the site on a mobile device, and an iPhone version of our lineup app is the most requested item, the responsive design for the site is the most exciting thing for us. After that, we'll be looking at adjusting the My Lineup page to allow owners to add multiple teams, but our readers keep us on our toes, so a lot of it depends on you.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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The Verdict: keeping it on the DL

Posted by Michael Stein at 3:01am

There are dozens of ways to customize a fantasy baseball league. Whether it is roto or points, head-to-head or cumulative, daily or weekly, keeper or non-keeper, mixed league or AL/NL only, you get the point. After making those decisions, you must decide how many teams to include in the league and then set roster limits including positions and the number of bench players allowed. After all of that, a decision that is often taken for granted is whether to allow for DL slots, and if so, how many.

Just like death and taxes are the only things guaranteed in life, injuries are all but assured in a fantasy baseball league. We see it almost every day where players go down with injuries, which wreaks havoc on major league teams as well as millions of fantasy baseball players. In actual baseball, teams can place their players on the disabled list where they remain safe and sound until they can come back. On fantasy teams, it isn't always so easy.

Depending on the number of teams and size of rosters in your league, the free agent pool tends to be lacking sufficient replacements when a player gets injured. That is why some leagues opt to not allow for DL slots at all. Sure, not having a DL slot creates drama, intrigue and true strategic planning when deciding whether to hold on to a player. But if a fantasy manager elects to build his bench with players at certain positions, he may not be able to replace that injured player without deviating from his strategy.

That is not to say that fantasy players are entitled to stay committed to the plans they made in the offseason or during the draft. But if we want to truly replicate some semblance of reality in our fantasy games, players need the flexibility to be able to stash certain injured players without being at the expense of someone else. This is why I advocate having DL slots available. But how many?

Deciding how many DL slots are available would logically be based on the number of teams in the league and the size of the rosters. One would think that the more teams and the bigger the rosters, the fewer DL spots a league should have. That does make some sense. But it also makes sense even if it is a smaller league with more limited rosters. Regardless of how many teams are in the league, it is advisable not to let fantasy players hoard injured players. I understand that teams are permitted to allocate their FAAB dollars or waiver positions however they want. But looking at the bigger picture and what is best for the league, the free agent pool should remain as viable as possible for as long as possible.

Most leagues I have participated in have a limit of three DL slots. I think this is a fair number to allow teams the flexibility to stash players who get injured, or even acquire players already injured. If a team sustained more than three injuries at a time, then it becomes a strategic decision who to hold on to and who to let go. This likely won't be an easy decision, but it is something that must be made to keep the size of rosters in check while also maximizing the free agent pool as much as possible.

The decision to have DL slots and the number permissible is something each league must decide. Some leagues prefer to play with the teams they drafted and not have any transactions at all. But if this is a point of contention in your league, it is advisable to settle on three DL slots because it is enough to compensate for a rash of injuries and few enough to prevent excessive hoarding of injured players.

The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.

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Monday, May 06, 2013

The daily grind: 5-6-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Andrew Cashner is back down to 28 percent owned and the only guy today that I can possibly recommend.

I suppose Nick Tepesch's command and control profile matches-up well with the Cubs.

Pitcher (bum): It's easy to forget that Chris Capuano is coming off the best season of an otherwise mediocre career. He's probably worth trying to exploit until he has a solid start.

Vance Worley has a tough assignment against the Red Sox.

Ubaldo Jimenez is coming off his best outing in years, but the A's present a surprisingly difficult lineup to flummox.

Hitter (power): Cody Ross will see Capuano.

Seth Smith and Brandon Moss draw the righty.

You can try good 'ol Daniel Nava against Worley too.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia will face lefty Wade LeBlanc.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): There are a few names worth a shake today.

Justin Grimm looks like an under-the-radar core fantasy starter. He is opposed by a potent Brewers offense, so beware.

J.A. Happ finally gets a match-up against a mid-tier lineup.

Zach McAllister has a semi-difficult assignment against the A's.

Pitcher (bum): I think the Pirates will plunder the Mariners and Aaron Harang.

I'm predicting some struggles out of Scott Diamond tomorrow despite good results to date.

Hitter (power): Try Brandon Belt against Kyle Kendrick.

Jonny Gomes and Nava will face a hittable lefty.

C.J. Wilson is a nice opponent for Chris Carter.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra will see Josh Beckett.

Noteworthy news

Roy Halladay appears headed to the disabled list with an unspecified shoulder injury. I've been saying all season that he's throwing through a shoulder issue - I've watched enough tape of myself doing the same to know what it looks like.

Weather watch

Three games face a rain threat today, including two in California. The Braves and Reds are most likely to see delays or cancellation, but the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Marlins, and Padres may see some rare California rain.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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The Hot Seat

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:07am

The big news in baseball this week was Roy Halladay succumbing to the injury bug, and it seems as though the concerns about him during Spring Training were legitimate after all. There’s all sorts of speculation out there regarding who will take his rotation spot, so I’m going to dig deep and try to predict the Phillies’ next move.

After three consecutive quality starts, Halladay had a total meltdown on Tuesday, giving up eight runs on nine hits (including three home runs) and two walks in 3.2 innings against Cleveland. Then came Sunday, when he imploded in a most spectacular fashion, exiting after just 2.1 innings, having surrendered nine runs on four hits (including another homer), four walks and two hit-by-pitches.

It was the first time the 35-year-old had given up five or more runs in the first inning of a game since his rookie season in 1999. The most disturbing part is that he did this facing the Miami Marlins, whose lineup for the day looked more like a Triple-A roster: Juan Pierre, Chris Valaika, Placido Polanco, Justin Ruggiano, Marcell Ozuna, Greg Dobbs, Miguel Olivo, Adeiny Hechavarria and Kevin Slowey.

Coming into Sunday, Halladay’s average fastball velocity for the season was 89.9 mph. Against the Marlins, he averaged 88.2 mph on his heater. More alarming than the drop in velocity, which can fluctuate from start to start, was his fastball location, or complete lack thereof. In the eight plate appearances that ended with a fastball, the Marlins roasted Halladay for a single, a double, a homer, a walk and a hit batsman, while recording just three outs.

He also seemed to know he didn’t have command of his fastball (or his cutter, for that matter), as he threw nothing but curveballs in three-ball counts. After the game, Halladay admitted that his shoulder has been bothering him since before the Cleveland game, while Ruben Amaro said that Halladay will see Dr. Lewis Yocum and is almost certainly headed to the disabled list. With John Lannan expected out for at least another month, the Phillies will have to turn to their farm system for a replacement.

Phillies fans have been taking to Twitter all day to express their desire for the team to call up top prospect Jesse Biddle. Sure, his overall numbers in Double-A this year are extremely impressive (2.56 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 11.37 K/9), but he recorded four walks while retiring just two batters before getting pulled after 41 pitches in his start on Saturday. He’s not ready.

The most likely candidate for a call-up is lefty Adam Morgan, another of the club’s top prospects who is pitching pretty well in Triple-A (3.89 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 6.75 K/9 in six starts) after a spectacular 2012 season (3.35 ERA, 2.58 FIP, 9.59 K/9, 2.21 BB/9) in 26 starts between High-A and Double-A.

When Lannan originally got hurt, Amaro said that Morgan was not an option to fill the rotation spot because he would have been pitching on short rest. It was even expected by many (myself included) that Morgan would replace Jonathan Pettibone the next time through the rotation. As it turned out, Pettibone has done an admirable job and hasn’t given the Phillies any reason to replace him yet. This time, it’s a different story. Morgan, like Halladay, pitched on Sunday and would be on normal rest to take Halladay’s rotation spot.

The problem with Morgan is that he isn’t currently on the team’s 40-man roster, so the Phillies would have to open up a spot for him. Tyler Cloyd, also in Triple-A, is on the 40-man and actually started six games for the major league club in 2012. Cloyd is coming off a fantastic start on Friday in which he allowed one run on four hits with ten strikeouts and zero walks in eight innings of work.

Unfortunately for Cloyd, that’s the only impressive start he’s had this year. He had given up at least three runs in all five of his previous starts, his K/BB ratio was just 1.83 before Friday’s gem, and even after that start he owns a 5.40 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.

Furthermore, despite the fact that he’s had good numbers in the minors throughout most of his career, Cloyd is little more than a warm body who has never been considered to be amongst the Phillies’ top 15 prospects. Ethan Martin also is on the 40-man, but he has been beyond horrible in Triple-A this year; I don’t feel the need to cite any stats other than his outrageous 8.06 BB/9.

By the time you’re reading this, it is possible that the Phillies have already announced their move. The thing is, it really doesn’t matter too much. The way I see it, it’s between Morgan and Cloyd.

If Cloyd gets the call, he’s worth an add only in the very deepest of NL-only leagues. He's an extreme fly-ball pitcher, his secondary offerings (cutter, curve, change-up) are all fringe-average or worse, and he has a four-seamer that pretty much tops out around 87 mph. Yay.

Morgan, however, has the ability to be a mid-rotation starter in the majors for years to come. The 23-year-old has good command of his deep arsenal, which includes a plus slider, a change-up and a curveball to go with his low-90s fastball.

He doesn’t have as much experience in the high minors as one would like, and Morgan may have to do some learning on the job at the major league level, but the potential is there for a solid fantasy starter. He’s worth adding in the majority of NL-only leagues and possibly even in very deep mixed formats.

Even if the Phillies go with Cloyd for now, Morgan still is worth a stash because he’s simply a better pitcher than either Cloyd or Pettibone. He’ll find a spot in this rotation.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 6, Vol. I

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:03am

Greetings, fellow fantasy travelers. Just five days ago, Nolan Arenado was a fantasy neophyte looking to establish himself in the vocabulary of casual fans, but that was before he cranked out two home runs, including a grand slam. Brian Dozier, still the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter for the time being, has yet to establish himself as a regular fantasy play, though Justin Grimm posted nine strikeouts in a start against the White Sox on Thursday night.

Speaking of waiver wire alumni, Garrett Richards lost his rotation spot to Jerome Williams, Andrew Cashner’s control issues surfaced in a bad start against the Cubs, and Aaron Hicks actually hit a home run in Week 5, even though he continues to struggle to keep his head above water at the big league level.

But you didn’t come here to read about yesterday’s mashed potatoes. Let’s get to work dissecting some new guests on today’s waiver wire column.

Scott Kazmir | Cleveland Indians | SP | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; .3 percent ESPN; 6 percent CBS
YTD: 14.1 IP / 5.79 FIP / 9.42 K/9 / 3.77 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 64.3 IP / 5.72 FIP / 7.13 K/9 / 4.48 BB/9

Ah, 2007. Motorola’s RAZR was the hot cell phone to own. Rudy Giuliani was the odds-on favorite to represent the Republican Party in the upcoming presidential race, where he was sure to face Hillary Clinton. The Mets? They were actually good—well, good if you subtract the last 17 games of the season.

But it was also a season in which a young phenom named Scott Kazmir ran the table in the American League, leading the pack with 239 punchouts while compiling a tasty 5.1 WAR. For the 23-year-old, the future couldn’t look brighter, as the ace so many thought the Mets gave away in the Victor “10 minutes to glory” Zambrano trade made his bones among Major League Baseball’s best.

Unfortunately, the baseball gods would have no part of it, banishing Kazmir to an odyssey of arm problems that destroyed his former ace-like ceiling. He made just one start in 2011, none in 2012, and by the time we ushered in 2013, he had gone from being a former strikeout king to a fantasy oversight.

But then came the invitation to Indians’ spring training. Kazmir, now 29, pitched well enough in 13 innings, and with some help from the Indians’ reluctance to start the year with Trevor Bauer at the big league level, snuck into Cleveland’s rotation, though a strained rib cage delayed his debut until April 20, when he got vaporized by the Astros.

Still, Kazmir has turned in two decent starts since, including a six-inning, two-run job on Saturday against the Twins. Yeah, they’re the Twins, but I’ll take seven strikeouts any day, whomever they’re against, and a player who has a strikeout title on his resume should forever deserve some respect.

With Kazmir, two things really matter: his health, of course, and the zip on his fastball, which is not unrelated to his health. The good news is that through his three starts, Kazmir’s average fastball velocity, as per FanGraphs, is 91.7 mph, and overall, he’s earning a 9.9 SwStr percentage, both of which are his best since 2008.

Obviously, we’re dealing with a microscopic sample size, but it’s certainly a step in the right direction, especially when you consider peripherals like a BABIP (.350) and HR/FB rate (18.2 percent) that won’t suck so much once he adds a few more starts to his season.

Kazmir, that super prospect from Mets days of yore, is a pitcher I’d like to see succeed, so maybe I’m reading too much into two weeks’ worth of performance while ignoring the shrieking reality that Kazmir could (will?) get injured again. It’s also hard to ignore Bauer’s looming presence, as he’s sure to get a tour in the Indians’ rotation at some point this year, which would squeeze out either Kazmir or Corey Kluber.

But it’s time to get back to considering Kazmir as a potentially viable fantasy baseball starter, a former phenom still chasing that upside as he looks to make good on the promise of yesteryear.

Recommendation: I want to see one more good start. Then I’m going to add him in deeper mixed leagues with the intent of using him as a match-up guy.

Dee Gordon | Los Angeles Dodgers | SS | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 7.4 percent ESPN; 22 percent CBS
YTD: 5 PA / .500 / .600 / 1.000 with 0 HR and 2 SB
ZiPS updated: 176 PA / .253 / .301 / .323 with 1 HR and 14 SB

If cynicism is a disease, then consider me a terminal case. Example: When I saw Hanley Ramirez limp off the field with the help of trainers on Friday, I didn’t think about his career, his pain, his family, or the rest of his 2013 season because, hey, I don’t own him in any of my leagues, so why should I care? He’s an often-cranky multimillionaire who gets paid to play a children’s game, and in a country where millions of people are out of work and the desperate among us eat out of trash cans for subsistence, I’ll choose to donate my concern elsewhere.

But because it was immediately clear that HanRam and his strained left hamstring will be gone for at least several weeks, I, like a vulture waiting for its prey to gasp its last breath, immediately wondered whether a replacement, blessed with steady playing time, could provide any hidden fantasy value. And as fate would have it, he might.

You remember Gordon, 25, that speedster shortstop who was supposed to provide a fantasy kick in 2012 when he broke camp with the team. Too bad his bat was screamingly inadequate at the plate, as he was only able to compile a .561 OPS in 330 plate appearances, and when you factor in the 18 errors that were second-highest among shortstops last year—in only 79 games, I might add—you saw a raw talent who looked out of his depth in the big leagues.

But let’s get one thing straight: Gordon steals bases. Lots of ‘em. One hundred and ninety-two at the minor league level. Fifty-eight in the majors despite having appeared in just 144 games entering Sunday. That kind of speed, coming from a shortstop, deserves notice in fantasy.

As long as he can hit, of course. Gordon was smacking the ball around to the tune of a .314/.397/.431 line in the Pacific Coast League at the time of his call-up, and he carries a lifetime .303/.357/.390 line over his 1,963 plate appearances in the minors. Gordon also has flashed the makings of a top-of-the-order hitter when you consider a very decent 13.7 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, which goes nicely with an 85 percent contact rate.

Even when he was drowning in Los Angeles last year with a .228 average, Gordon’s 18.8 percent K rate suggested he wasn’t going up to the plate to flail around helplessly. But a solid average in the hitter-friendly PCL does not end the discussion over whether he can produce a better batting average than, say, .260, and a lack of walks is very troubling.

Also, keep an eye on his defense. While it won’t hurt us fantasy folks, abysmal play at the infield’s most critical position could affect his playing time, and with eight errors in 25 Triple-A games, it’s far from clear that he can play a competent shortstop. Fortunately, the bats of shortstop alternatives Justin Sellers and Luis Cruz have been nothing more than putty so far in 2013, and with the Dodgers needing offense, Gordon should get a serious opportunity to play.

I’m not a scout nor a soothsayer, so I don’t know whether Gordon will get on base regularly enough to be a significant fantasy factor in the month or so that he’ll have shortstop all to himself. But I think about Everth Cabrera and his lifetime .657 OPS, which hasn’t prevented many fantasy owners from using him. Obviously, Cabrera has more experience than Gordon and is probably a better player, but it’s not the worst comparison.

The bottom line: Middle infielders who steal bases always will have a place in fantasy, and in deep enough leagues, they typically find themselves on more than a few rosters.

Recommendation: If you need steals and can live with Gordon’s offensive shortcomings and lack of long-term job security, grab him in leagues mixed and otherwise.

Yonder Alonso | San Diego Padres | 1B | 19 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN; 65 percent CBS
YTD: 121 PA / .284 / .347 / .450 with 4 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 608 PA / .270 / .339 / .417 with 15 HR and 6 SB

No, Alonso will never mutate into a 35-home run fantasy wildebeast, and in standard mixed leagues, that hurts his value as a first baseman. But we don’t often look for shallow mixed-league players on the fantasy scrap heap, and if you can get a guy who will help you across the board in deeper leagues without hurting you in any particular area, you count your blessings.

Enter Alonso, 26. A key piece in the Mat Latos trade a couple of years ago, Alonso has proven his ability to take a base without striking out too much, witnessed by a career 16.5 percent strikeout rate against a 9.6 percent walk rate. He’s off to a good start this year, with a solid slash line and four home runs.

Part of what makes Alonso intriguing is his offseason efforts to improve his swing. Working out alongside Alex Rodriguez (a sentence that feels strange to write, let alone read), Alonso watched video and looked to incorporate more power into his swing. That improvement helped lead to five home runs in spring training, and, with four dingers already under his belt, a good bet to double up on last year’s home run total of nine.

Chase Headley is back, Jedd Gyorko’s bat is showing signs of a pulse, and those fences at Petco Park remain moved in. Alonso won’t appear on any fantasy baseball magazine covers heading into next season, but if you believe his ZiPS projections as I do, then you agree he can provide some help at a corner infield spot in many a mixed league.

Recommendation: Not yet a standard mixed-league play, but he should be owned in deeper leagues.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Friday, May 03, 2013

The daily grind: 5-3-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone is today's auto-start. The Stanton-less Marlins have been preventing their opponents from putting up great fantasy lines thus far.

I refuse to change my tune on the Yankees until their lineup has more than two players with an expected wOBA above league average. I do think it's prudent to avoid starts at Yankee Stadium when CC Sabathia is pitching, but A.J. Griffin is a pretty good pitcher.

Felix Doubront remains intriguing, but this might be the start to sit him if you don't need the innings. He faces the Rangers.

Pitcher (bum): Seeing Jason Marquis, Shaun Marcum, and Jeff Francis starting today takes me back to 2007. All three are prone to crooked numbers.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava are seeing a lot of face time here recently. Nava's been a little more responsive to my favor than Gomes.

Juan Francisco faces Marcum tonight, but he sometimes sits when he should start, like last night. *shakes fist at Chris Johnson/Fredi Gonzalez*

We need a taser because Ryan Raburn is streaking. I hope that joke hurt your insides as much as it hurt mine. But seriously, he's known to go on these streaks where he's a top player in the game, it's just been awhile.

Hitter (speed): Nate Schierholtz, Craig Gentry and Gerardo Parra rep Team Speed today.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm a little more uncomfortable with Bartolo Colon against the Yankees lineup. He's a better play for H2H leagues, since his strikeout rate is fairly low.

Speaking of Yankees, Phil Hughes has been solid in three straight outings.

Some extra luck has taken Pat Corbin past my 50 percent ownership threshold. But if he's still available in your league, a start at Petco is a must-own.

Pitcher (bum): Jon Garland at Coors still strikes me as very exploitable.

Clayton Richard is on the other side of that Corbin match-up, and he's looking like a minor leaguer these days.

Even the Twins can hit Scott Kazmir...is what I'm saying by recommending against him. We'll see if it's true.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston should be back in the lineup for Tony Cingrani. At some point, that boy is going to give up a couple long balls.

We're back to Seth Smith and Brandon Moss for the Hughes match-up. As you see, I'm hedging my bets on that one. Let's just include Travis Hafner against Colon while we're at the hedge.

Tomorrow is a Chris Johnson day.

Hitter (speed): Try Leonys Martin, I haven't used that name in awhile.

Alternatively, Chris Denorfia is likely to start against Corbin.

Noteworthy news

Roy Oswalt signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, which is not an ideal destination for him. I'm expecting to see him out of the bullpen, honestly.

Weather watch

The midwest is expected to see showers throughout the day, which affects the White Sox, Royals, Reds and Cubs.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. III

Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:26am

One thing that's wonderful about baseball (fantasy or otherwise) is when your team has a stud that is so studly nothing else matters.

Take me, for instance. I drafted Clayton Kershaw in my dynasty league after the 2008 season and have watched his work with glee ever since. I've also appreciated the notoriety that comes with rostering such a prestigious player. Women want me and men want to be me. When I walk down the street (in a crowded mob, always) children ask to be put on their father's shoulders just to catch a better glimpse of me. Wizened old men and ladies ask for my thoughts about life. It's a burden at times to be sure, but it's also a privilege. I own Clayton Kershaw (figuratively, that would be illegal otherwise) and that makes me a totally bad dude.

(Be advised: it's possible that this section of today's column is slightly/significantly exaggerated)

Ahem. Today's edition of Waiver Wire is not about those kinds of players. No one is going to be giddy watching the guys we'll discuss today, but that doesn't mean they can't help hang a flag.

First, as always, a look at some of our past honorees:

Andrew Cashner did not have his best stuff Wednesday night, and got roughed up by the lowly Chicago Cubs offense. He remains a solid pickup with significant upside, however.

It didn't take long for the Red Sox to ditch Joel Hanrahan in favor of Andrew Bailey full-time. Bailey is still (right now!) owned at much lesser rates than other stud closers, and that should not be the case. If he's available in your league, go get him.

It was suggested on the internet once that J.A. Happ was a capable starting pitcher for owners in mixed leagues. This remains the case, and the person who suggested this is probably one of the top five fantasy baseball writers of all-time. Or his name is Jack Weiland, and he occasionally writes about himself in the third person. Either/or.

John Lackey. Still healthy. Add him.

Luis Valbuena continued his strong play, and although the Cubs keep sitting him in favor of Cody Ransom against lefties, he's still a good buy. The Cubs batted him third against Cashner, which doesn't mean much considering it was a one-off, lefty-centric lineup, but it is telling that the folks in Chicago feel good about Valbuena's offense as well. The luck dragon is catching up with fellow Cub Welington Castillo, but he's still a good source of power from a position that generally lacks it, and he's still widely available. I still recommend grabbing him. Like, fantasy wise. Not in real life, since that's probably assault.

On to this week's features!

Kevin Slowey | Miami Marlins | SP | ESPN: 5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 8 percent; CBS: 19 percent
YTD: 0-2, 2.15 ERA in 37.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 3-7. 3.77 ERA in 121.2 IP

Slowey is the poster boy for unsexiness. He was a good prospect with the Twins, but never a great one. He strikes out a good number of batters, but not enough to excite anybody. His walk rate is superb, but his groundball rate is terrible. He's found a home in South Florida, though, and the results so far have been excellent.

While he's unlikely to maintain his sub-3 ERA, he does have a minuscule walk rate (four percent), solid strikeout rate (19.5 percent) and Miami's new ballpark should mitigate some of the risk from his flyball tendencies, as Marlins Park was MLB's fifth stingiest when it came to home runs last year. But as a guy with a sub-90 fastball, and middling stuff, the upside is not here for a run at the National League ERA title.

Recommendation: Strong add in NL-only leagues, and a solid replacement in deeper mixed leagues for injuries/spot starts.

Roberto Hernandez | Tampa Bay Rays | SP | ESPN: 1.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 3 percent; CBS: 9 percent
YTD: 1-4, 5.28 ERA in 30.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 6-12, 4.79 ERA in 129.2 IP

Oh hey, remember Fausto Carmona? And how people call him Roberto Hernandez now? No, not that Roberto Hernandez. The new one!

Well, this one is utterly undervalued by fantasy leagues right now. He's been covered in great detail by our pals over at Fangraphs here and here. To summarize: ~~Carmona~~ Hernandez's ERA is ugly right now, but he has been both very good and very unlucky this season. A brief review of the facts behind those statements:

1. He's striking out batters at a career-high rate of 21.9 percent.
2. He has a superb groundball rate of 52.2 percent.
3. He has a supremely unlucky home run rate of 23.8 percent, and a similarly unfortunate strand rate of just 62.2 percent (especially considering the rate at which he's striking batters out).

Recommendation: ~~Carmona~~ Hernandez is likely on the verge of a very hot stretch, and therefore is worth adding in mixed leagues as well as AL-only.

Eric Stults | San Diego Padres | SP | ESPN: 0.6 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 6 percent; CBS: 10 percent
YTD: 2-2, 5.67 ERA in 27 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-8, 4.64ERA in 128 IP

This soft-tossing San Diego lefty is another player with an ugly ERA, but solid underlying peripherals. Despite a fastball that averages just 86.4 miles per hour, Stults has been able to post a solid strikeout rate of 18 percent. Coupled with an excellent walk rate (3.4 percent) and decent groundball tendencies (42.7 percent), there's a lot to like here.

He's been victimized by a slightly elevated BABIP (.322) and low strand rate (63.7 percent). Assuming both of those come in line, and Stults is able to maintain his strikeout and walk rates, he can be of use on Fantasy Island.

Recommendation: Worth adding in NL-only leagues. Worth being streamed in the right situation (like, against the Cubs) in mixed leagues.

Scott Feldman | Chicago Cubs | SP | ESPN: 0.5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent; CBS: 6 percent
YTD: 2-3, 3.34 ERA in 29.2 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 7-10, 4.33 ERA in 124.2 IP

Prior to his complete game against the Padres Wednesday, Feldman was striking out about as many batters as he was walking, which is generally not a recipe for success. Fanning 12 and walking just one did a lot to change that, though. His rates now look more healthy (18.3 percent strikeouts 9.9 percent walks) but he'd do well to drop his walk rate further in an effort to maintain such a sparkling ERA. Since he's pumping across first pitch strikes at the highest rate of his career (61.8 percent) that seems very possible.

He's not going to set the world on fire (because that would be rude) but he can be handy with decent strikeout rates, decent walk rates, and decent groundball rates. He's decidedly decent.

It bears mentioning that the Cubs currently have both Scott Baker and Matt Garza on the disabled list, and when they return the Cubs will certainly be doing some rotation shuffling.

Recommendation: Worth using in NL-only formats for now. His value is tempered by the fact that he may lose his job at some point this season, but you could do worse for a short term solution on the cheap.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Thursday, May 02, 2013

The daily grind: 5-2-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:54am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I recommended Roberto Hernandez and Ervin Santana for today. Rain and wind will make that game interesting to say the least. Predictable outcomes are out the door.

Despite Dillon Gee failing me again, I love almost anybody starting against the Marlins. Today that is Kyle Kendrick, who is probably worth owning outright. Lefties (like Lucas Duda) can still take advantage, but he seems to have made legitimate improvements last season that have carried over to 2013.

Justin Grimm is also on that fringe of guys who can be rostered outright. I never saw through his 9.00 ERA last year to the solid peripherals, but he generates a good number of whiffs and rarely walks anybody. In a small sample this year, he's not getting mashed. In last season's mini-sample, he gave up a 29 percent line drive rate and .438 BABIP compared to this season's more sane rates of 19 percent line drives and .288 BABIP.

Pitcher (bum): I'm suppressing the urge to make a Joe Blanton fat joke, which is a shame for you because I had a good one loaded up. Anyway, start Orioles.

What's the over/under on runs scored in a Rick Porcello versus Jordan Lyles match-up? 15?

Dan Haren has lovely peripherals. The question is, do his .386 BABIP against, near 16 percent HR/FB ratio, and continued decline in whiff rate tell us that he's serving them up? I'm betting the Braves have a feast.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston sees a lefty. Which is one of Dr. Seuss' most conventional stories.

Jonny Gomes and Daniel Nava also see a lefty.

Juan Francisco sees a righty. He's different.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia sees...a lefty! But you knew that as soon as I wrote Denorfia—he doesn't play otherwise.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jonathan Pettibone faces Ricky Nolasco and the Marlins. Have I mentioned that this is a near auto-start?

The Yankees' fairy tale has to end sometime, right? A.J. Griffin is down to 32 percent owned. He's a solid pitcher with a solid match-up. He does oppose C.C. Sabathia, so he shouldn't be choice 1A.

Felix Doubront has a fringy match-up in Arlington. I'm not sure that goes well with his penchant for home runs allowed.

Barry Zito is a wild card. I'm a fool for associating with him, but I don't much respect the Dodgers offense at the moment.

Pitcher (bum): Jason Marquis has been good this season, but I'm betting on the Diamondbacks' offense.

The Rays will be the latest team to prey on lefty Jeff Francis.

Poor Shaun Marcum has a tough game ahead of him against the Braves.

Hitter (power): Marcum starting equals Francisco in the fantasy lineup.

Ryan Raburn looks like he's on one of those hot streaks he used to supply once a year. And he'll have the platoon advantage.

Another lefty for Gomes and Nava.

Hitter (speed): Try Nate Schierholtz against Mike Leake.

It's a Craig Gentry start day.

Also try Gerardo Parra.

Weather watch

A windy, rainy game is expected in Kansas City between the Rays and Royals. Games hosted by the Rangers and Cubs could also see a spate here or there.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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The Roto Grotto: average averages and comparing rate stats

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:54am

Counting statistics are relatively easy to compare to one another. With an idea of how many fantasy points they are worth, how many it will take to typically earn a specific number of roto points, and how many will be available in all of baseball in a season, you can compare counting stats to each other with appropriate context.

Rate statistics are more difficult to handle because they are really two stats in one, the first a standard counting stat and the second the opportunities for that counting stat. For example, batting average is a rate statistic comprised of hits, a counting statistic, and the opportunity for hits, which is at bats.

As with other counting stats, hits can be more or less valuable for your team depending on their context. If you are one hit away from tying another team’s total on the last day of the season, then one hit is tremendously valuable. If you are far away from both the closest leader and trailer of you, then one hit will be less valuable. However, every hit is a positive event.

In contrast, the opportunity event is always a negative event, a fact that requires a bit of framing to understand. Yes, a .300 average is more valuable over 600 at bats than over 300 at bats, assuming a .300 average will increase your team average. However, the reason that is the case is because of the additional hits, not because of the additional at bats.

I could calculate both hits and at bats as a percentage of league totals, as I did with the counting stats. The problem is that a hit is a positive event that does not equal the negative event of one at bat. A batter that produces one hit per three at bats is among the best in baseball.

I can, however, still calculate the league average, and then use it as a benchmark for comparison. Here is the batting average of all non-pitchers over the last three seasons:

Season	Average	StdDev
2010	.261	.026
2011	.259	.028
2012	.258	.031

In recent years, league average has declined slightly. In 2012, it was .258. I also included the standard deviation of the batting averages of players with at least 300 at bats in those seasons, which has been close to 30 points in each season.

With the league average and standard deviations, I can calculate the Z-score of a specific player’s batting average. A Z-score is a simple expression of how much better or worse a sample statistic is compared to the mean on a scale of its standard deviation. A Z-score of 1 is one standard deviation above the mean while a Z-score of -1 is one standard deviation below the mean.

Here are the Z-scores of the batters that were closest to each whole deviation in 2012:

Player	Average	Z-score
Ryan Braun	.319	2
Ruben Tejada	.289	1
Mark Ellis	.258	0
Mike Napoli	.227	-1
Carlos Pena	.197	-2

A player with a high Z-score will have a correspondingly high average. The reason Z-score is a useful statistic is that it allows you to compare different statistics on different scales. Jeffrey Gross explains it well in his article from a few years ago on his auction-pricing model. I’ll hit on a lot of those same points in the coming weeks, and I will try to apply some of those principles of draft preparation to in-season strategy.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

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Daily fantasy gaming: Five adages

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:20am

Up until this fantasy baseball season, I solely played the game in the traditional formats. While I was never a rotisserie purist, submitting myself to the variance (and fun) of head to head leagues, I just never had interest in creating a new team on a daily basis—to me, a lot of the fun in fantasy comes from managing a team as you would a real one throughout the ups and downs of the season.

This year though, that changed. After my 2012 fantasy season debacle of being an owner or co-owner in 13 separate leagues, and subsequently not having the time necessary to manage any of them to their full potential, I cut back to only five teams for 2013. To fill the void left by shedding those eight leagues, this season I have traversed into the murky, but opportunity-filled, waters of daily fantasy gaming. And I have to say I’ve loved it.

Although there’s something ideologically nice about having the same team and sticking with it all season long, the most entertaining part of fantasy to me is definitely drafting. And that’s essentially all daily gaming is: drafting a team, just for one day, at any point throughout the season.

There are many strategies for success in daily fantasy gaming, and they often mirror strategies that work in full-season leagues as well. However, because the season has already started and statistical results have started to flood in, there is more opportunity to subvert the norm and go against the grain in daily games because the public is overly inclined to change their opinion on a player in early season small samples. So, here are five rules to follow to help you win more consistently (or perhaps lose less consistently) in daily fantasy baseball games.

1) Shy Away From Pitchers with High Win Totals

In preparation for this piece, I spoke with five of my amateur (non-fantasy expert) friends who consistently partake in daily fantasy gaming. One common thread among them was the heavy use of the "Fantasy Points Per Game" statistic in their decision-making, which is available next to every player’s name on many platforms. It is a very simple calculation that takes a player’s total points and divides it by the number of games he’s played. Sounds useful, right?

Wrong. That’s because of two things: one, it is so widely available that using the stat gives you little to no statistical advantage over your competition, and; two, those results are both in a small sample, as well as extremely misleading anyway. This line of thought leads to rule number one: try to stay away from pitchers that have accumulated an inordinate amount of wins early in the year. It really boosts their "Fantasy Points Per Game" number, which subsequently leads to many more daily fantasy teams starting that player, which, when you’re in a contest against hundreds of other people, is counterintuitive to success.

2) Take Advantage of Platoon Splits

Baseball is a unique sport in many ways, one of which is the concept of platoon splits. Much value in daily baseball gaming can be derived from figuring out which guys fare better against one side of the plate, and utilizing them accordingly.

For example, Buster Posey is a great hitter no matter who he is facing, but for his career so far he is hitting .352 off of lefties with a .654 slugging as compared to a .296 average with a .444 slugging against righties. If I start a high-profile guy like Posey, it has to be in a matchup that is particularly favorable, so I look to only start him in daily games when he’s facing lefties.

On the other side of the spectrum, Neil Walker is an okay player, but seems like nothing special, and is a guy who rarely gets chosen in daily fantasy games. But, he is actually a really solid player against righties—he hits .285/.348/.445 against them versus .261/.318/.349 against lefties. These one-side-of-the-plate guys are omnipresent in baseball, and those little platoon advantages added up over a full year can make the difference between having a winning and losing season.

3) Do Not Get Fooled By Variance

When I read daily fantasy analysis, one common theme is choosing a hitter based on extreme success against a pitcher in a limited sample. While I don’t think that line of reasoning is completely invalid, I would be cautious when using it. The vast majority of the time, those results are just based on small sample sizes, and before selecting a draft pick based on that analysis, I would recommend personally going to MLB.com and watching a few of the match-ups between that hitter and pitcher. Sometimes there really is a legitimate advantage (every single time I’ve watched Ryan Braun face Octavio Dotel, Braun has looked lost) but it’s mostly just small sample size. Be wary of using small-sample matchup reasoning.

4) Always Look At The Bottom Of The List

The technology of price updates on many of the daily fantasy platforms is not 100 percent up to speed with the latest news. Sometimes, if you just scroll down to the bottom of the list where the retired, hurt or bench guys are, there happens to be a rock-bottom priced guy who should be valued as a starter. This mostly happens right after rookies get called up, or a guy comes off of the disabled list early, but even if you’re not expecting it, I’d recommend checking the bottom at every position, just in case there is a mistake. The potential value is enormous.

5) Check The Vig

This is more of a general gambling adage, but daily fantasy games run exactly the same way a casino does: the sites make money by charging you a small fee for entering a game, as a casino charges a small percentage fee when you lose a bet. The thing about daily games though is that the amount of ‘vig’ (that extra percent you pay) varies wildly from game to game and site to site.
Generally, the cheaper the game, the more expensive the vig—most five dollar fantasy games will charge a one dollar vig, which is way, way, way too much. My general advice is to never enter a contest that exceeds 10 percent, which sometimes means having to play some of the slightly more expensive games. But, in the long run, if your bankroll can take the variance, that strategy will help to maximize your profits.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

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Wednesday, May 01, 2013

The daily grind: 5-1-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm using Dillon Gee today not because he's trustworthy, but because he faces the worst lineup I've seen in years—the Miami Marlins.

The Astros have a surprisingly decent offense. They remind me a bit of the patchwork unit used by the Athletics—just with substantially less talent. In any case, David Phelps faces them today and the Astros' greatest proficiency remains striking out.

Andrew Cashner is up to 32 percent owned. He was never available in any of my leagues, although a league mate is trying to trade him to me for Bryce Harper.

Wei-Yin Chen isn't the most stable choice, but he should have a hard time earning the loss given the Mariners' weak offense and Aaron Harang's early season struggles.

Trevor Bauer starts today, and while I don't even like the match-up against a weak to mid-tier offense like the Phillies, he probably won't be available for long.

Pitcher (bum): Harang is the guy to stack against today.

I'm not sure what's going on with Erik Bedard or if he's even allowed to pitch over five innings at this point.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes will have the platoon advantage against Mark Buehrle. Throw Daniel Nava in the mix as well.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable should start against Scott Feldman

Juan Pierre matches up well with the Mets' indifferent defense. They're also among the easiest teams in the league to steal a base against.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Roberto Hernandez versus Ervin Santana offers two historically cringe-worthy choices. The case for Hernandez is based on his solid peripherals and gopheritis. If he can regress to a league average home run rate and maintain the other numbers, he'll be a solid pick. The story behind how Santana climbed from bum to top recommendation is laid out below.

Run to the wire for Kyle Kendrick versus the Marlins.

Justin Grimm looks like a solid pitcher worthy of ownership. He'll find a spot in "Good enough for me" once Santana isn't crowding the space.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Blanton is overcooked at the moment.

Rick Porcello is expected to face Jordan Lyles. Which sounds like a slugfest to me.

I'll continue betting against Dan Haren.

Hitter (power): Scott Hairston will see hittable lefty Eric Stults.

Gomes and Nava continue to be a solid play against J.A. Happ.

Big bat Juan Francisco is a must-play against Haren.

Hitter (speed): Chris Denorfia faces Travis Wood, whose early-season numbers appear to be mostly smoke and mirrors.

Noteworthy news

Stephen Strasburg is not expected to miss a start due to his forearm tightness.

Weather watch

There could be thunderstorms late for the Rays and Royals, but I'm not sure you need to avoid this game.

Good enough for me

Santana has seen incremental improvements across the board this season, jumping from my most reliable bum to a guy I'd like to own. Most notably, he's striking out more batters by generating more whiffs and he's walking hardly anybody. His K/BB ratio is 6.20, which is elite. I think he'll remain home run prone, and he's among the easiest pitchers to swipe a base against, but the overall numbers might worth a speculative add.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. II

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:15am

Does it not seem like just yesterday when the Rangers took the field against the Astros, christening what was a newly minted baseball season? Fast-forward 30 action-packed days to today, and one whole month is in the books. It's still early, of course, but a month is a month, as roster moves, rookie performances and debuts of super prospects become more commonplace.

Since we last checked in, Andrew Cashner pitched well enough against the Giants to help cement a role in the Padres rotation, Felix Doubront punched out eight en route to a win (though the walks remain an issue), while Lucas Harrell benefited from some heavy hitting Monday against the Yankees to earn a win.

But that was so April. Let's look ahead to May baseball.

Brian Dozier | Minnesota Twins | 2B / SS | 2 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.2 percent ESPN; 13 percent CBS
YTD: 79 PA / .243 / .295 / .314 with 0 HR and 1 SB
ZiPS updated: 607 PA / .246 / .297 / .339 with 6 HR and 12 steals

Remember Aaron Hicks? Sure, you do. He was, after all, tabbed to be fantasy sleeper material as the Twins' center fielder to start the year. But then, a funny thing happened: It turns out he can’t hit big league pitching, at least not yet. So the Twins, under the impression that they have something to play for in 2013, decided to make a lineup switch on April 23, moving second baseman Dozier—hitting a measly .152 at the time—to hit atop the team’s lineup. And whaddya know? Dozier has played much better, compiling a .718 OPS since then. And in deep fantasy leagues, when a guy flashes a hint of competency to go along with dual middle infield eligibility—he appeared in 83 games at shortstop last year—we stop and take a closer look.

Drafted by the Twins in 2009, Dozier, who turns 26 this month, compiled a .298 /.370 /.409 line in 365 minor league games, achieving a 9.5 percent walk rate and a delicious 87 percent contact rate. Obviously, that’s the makings of a guy who doesn’t flail away helplessly at the plate, though it’s fair to ask how much of a fantasy force he’ll be in 2013, when you consider just 16 home runs in the minors and not a ton of stolen bases (though he swiped as many as 24 bags two years ago while shuffling between A+ and Double-A).

There’s also the question of how long he’ll last as the Twins’ primary leadoff hitter, since there are still some of us who cling to hope that Hicks will rebound before a Triple-A demotion occurs. The Twins, of course, always have the option of batting Joe Mauer third, which would allow Dozier to remain at the top of the order.

Dozier doesn’t have a tremendous ceiling, but guys who make contact and can provide decent defense up the middle usually find work at the major league level. It might be too soon to tell whether Dozier can provide immediate help in fantasy, though he’s certainly an interesting player to keep an eye on.

Recommendation: I’ll pass for the moment in standard AL-only leagues, but another good week could change that quickly.

Justin Grimm | Texas Rangers | SP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 9.4 percent ESPN; 31 percent CBS
YTD: 17 IP / 2.70 FIP / 7.94 K/9 / 2.12 BB/9
ZiPS updated: 121 IP / 4.81 FIP / 5.73 K/9 / 3.35 BB/9

In the topsy-turvy world of pump-and-dump, pick-em-and-cut-em fantasy baseball dumpster diving, my predictions of lucrative—or poor—returns can sometimes turn out to be completely, utterly off. Isn’t that right, Chris Heisey? I know you agree, Garrett Richards. Oh, Collin Cowgill? Don’t bother responding—you’re dead to me.

But once in awhile, ~~even a stopped clock is right~~ my two cents can have some currency, evidenced by Nick Tepesch, who’s been serviceable, if not solid, in the three starts since he guest-starred on the waiver wire a couple of weeks ago. And since his rotation mate Grimm has suddenly become a hot commodity in fantasy leagues, we might as well see if I can go two for two among Rangers starters.

First things first: Grimm looked to be just a seat warmer a couple of weeks ago when Matt Harrison went on the disabled list with a back injury, but then that injury led to surgery for a herniated disc, zapping Harrison’s presence until midseason. Assuming Grimm can keep it together, it’s fair to presume he’ll have a steady job for at least the next two months, and he’ll have a job well beyond Harrison’s return if he can continue pitching like he has in his first three starts.

Who is Grimm? Plucked by the Rangers in the fifth round of the 2010 draft, the 24-year-old put together a 7.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 over 281 minor league innings, and was able to keep the ball on the ground well enough to avoid a high HR/9 rate, which is obviously a factor given Arlington’s hitter-helpful surroundings. At the major league level, Grimm has been able to maintain those strikeout numbers armed with a low-90s fastball to go along with a curveball and change-up.

As the innings mount, Grimm’s surprising K/9 will fall back down to earth, as will his 1.59 ERA, which is inflated by favorable strand and HR/FB rates. And yes, there’s no question that he’d be valued differently if his fan mail were sent to, say, Petco Park instead of Rangers Ballpark. But with a rotation spot on a good team and a strikeout rate that could very well exceed 6 K/9, I’d say Grimm has modest, if limited, appeal.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues.

Nolan Arenado | Colorado Rockies | 3B | 42 percent Yahoo ownership; 35 percent ESPN; 62 percent CBS
YTD: 10 PA / .333 / .400 / .667 with 1 HR and 0 SB
ZiPS updated: 116 PA / .280 / .324 / .439 with 14 HR and 1 SB

Forget any questions about his attitude. Forget any concerns about whether he’s too raw to produce steadily in the majors. Instead, just think about the fact that Arenado, ranked 52nd on Baseball America’s Top 100 list, calls Coors Field home and will be the Rockies’ starting third baseman going forward after the team designated Chris Nelson for assignment.

Yes, Arenado’s Double-A numbers last year (.285 /.337 /.428, 12 home runs) were less dazzling than in his sparkling 2011 season, in which he crushed 20 home runs and 122 RBIs and won most valuable player honors in the Arizona Fall League. But that’s not to say 2012 was a total loss, as the 22-year-old matured, and, in some ways, put together a better season. And the fact that Troy Tulowitzki has taken the neophyte under his wing sure doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Let’s cut to the chase. Mike Moustakas has been fantasy kryptonite so far in 2013. Will Middlebrooks was hitting .202 entering Tuesday’s action. And Pedro Alvarez is, well, Pedro Alvarez. We’ll need a few more weeks to find out how well Arenado acclimates himself to the majors, but with his upside and his position’s scarcity, a spare roster spot—if not an outright starting gig—sure sounds like a cheap asking price.

Recommendation: If he’s still available in anything but the shallowest of mixed leagues, grab him.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Which batter belongs?

Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:01am

One way I offer perspective to those who overreact to their fantasy teams’ hot or cold starts is to note that teams are made up of players, and the level of significance of the standings is likely also reflected in the player rankings. Sure, things are beginning to settle in, but there are also some quite foreign names among the players whose 2013 production has ranked as elite.

That said, each year, a number of players come out of nowhere and stick as top-25 or top-50 players. Today, I’ll look the offensive players currently in the top 25, but who were projected outside the top-100 and choose which I think has the best chance of retaining elite value for the full season.

My current choices are Chris Davis, Coco Crisp, Nate McLouth, Dexter Fowler, John Buck, and Wilin Rosario.

McLouth does have some potential and Buck does have legit power, but they will likely be borderline roster-able in 12-team mixed leagues by year’s end. I’d sell high on either without question.

Some expected big things from Rosario, but there are still a few things that worry me, mainly his plate discipline. I wouldn’t be in a rush to trade him, but I’d entertain offers. He should finish as a top five catcher, and that’s nothing to sneeze at. Even as an elite catching option, it’s difficult for catchers to break into the very top of the season rankings among all players.

When it comes to Chris Davis, the most impressive thing I’ve seen from him this year has been improved plate discipline. We need to see if this continues for the season—I’m not yet convinced. As of now, I still expect basically the same thing I did coming into the season. But, if the walk rate holds for a few more weeks, I may have to reassess Davis and his sublime power

Coco Crisp is a good player who has been beset by injuries and had his production capped by hitting atop some weak offenses. There’s no reason why a healthy Crisp can’t flirt with being a top-75 player and provide 40 or more steals. But, retaining top-25 value is a reach. He’s unlikely to hit above .280 and is below average in homers and RBI.

This leaves us with my choice among this group—Dexter Fowler. I was incredibly high on Fowler coming into this season and have reaped the rewards in the leagues in which I nabbed him. There’s a lot to like about Fowler. He’s displayed very good on-base skills both in the minors and in the bigs and has consistently upped his ISO each year as a pro. Is this the year that a significant number of his doubles and triples become homers? It’s certainly within the realm of possibility. Though, I don’t expect him to continue to hit homers at this clip, 17-22 dingers is quite possible, as he enters his prime (age 27) and shows continued development. Also promising is that five of eight early season long balls have come away from Coors.

The other area that would really boost his game would be an improvement as a base stealer. Fowler certainly has the speed to be a very good one, but he has never seemed to get the technique down pat. He’s stolen as many as 43 bases in the minors, but never at a very good success rate. In the majors, he’s ran less often each year, as his inability to turn his speed into highly successful stealing revealed itself. Still, he’s three for four early in 2013 and could still put a total in the mid-teens.

As long as Fowler continues to get on at a high rate, he’ll have plenty of chances to both swipe a few bags and score a bunch of runs. An end season line of something like .300/90/20/70/15 does not seem unrealistic at all, and that’s just outside top-25 production—maybe top 40 or so. I would not move Fowler for anything but an established stud.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

The daily grind: 4-30-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:11am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Zach McAllister will face a Phillies lineup that should be a little bit better with the return of Carlos Ruiz.

As I noted yesterday, Kevin Slowey has worked his way back into my good graces. In particular, an increased swinging strike rate and excellent control should result in an ERA around my 4.00 target for waiver pitchers.

I'm grudgingly using Jose Quintana against the Rangers in a league where I own him outright.

Pitcher (bum): Four pitchers have particularly difficult assignments today.

Jarrod Parker will face the Angels.

Vance Worley takes on the Tigers.

The Orioles will see Brandon Maurer, who is showing signs of settling down.

Philip Humber has the easiest match-up against a home run happy Yankees lineup.

Hitter (power): Yankees believers should keep using Travis Hafner.

Chris Johnson should get the start against Gio Gonzalez, but this isn't choice number one.

Brandon Moss and Seth Smith are part of the template. They face fastball-dependent Garrett Richards.

Hitter (speed): The speed crowd is starting to hit the waiver wires and find more real life playing time.

Rajai Davis has a difficult match-up against Jon Lester, but he'll try to swipe a base if he reaches.

Craig Gentry will start against Quintana.

Juan Pierre should find few problems slapping at Jeremy Hefner's offerings.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I picked up Dillon Gee but I'm unsure if I'll start him. I need to analyze this current funk. Do note that he's playing the Marlins tomorrow.

David Phelps will rarely earn notice in this column, but a match-up with the Astros is hard to pass up.

Trevor Bauer will challenge Cliff Lee and the Phillies. I'm not rushing out to own this match-up, but Bauer's pedigree means that this is your one shot to own him—if you want to.

Andrew Cashner's ownership is up from 10 percent last week to 26 percent now. I didn't think I'd get a second chance to recommend him, but a match-up with the Cubs is good for him.

Something has me uncomfortable about Wei-Yin Chen still, but the Mariners offense is non-threatening and Aaron Harang is particularly flammable.

Pitcher (bum): As I just mentioned, Harang seems to catch fire early and often. In a bad way.

Erik Bedard is struggling mightily.

Hitter (power): Jonny Gomes will see Mark Buehrle.

Hitter (speed): Try Will Venable against Scott Feldman.

Continue with Pierre. The Mets' shoddy defense should increase his odds of reaching base.

You can hold Gentry too, although Chris Sale is not an easy assignment.

Noteworthy news

The Marlins' only hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, has hit the 15 day disabled list. Marcell Ozuna has been recalled. He's a solid four or five category prospect. He's worth a shot if you need outfield help.

Weather watch

Looks like a great weather day.

Good enough for me

Ruiz is shockingly owned in only 30 percent of leagues, probably by the resident Phillies fans. He's a good bet to be a top 10 catcher and middle-of-the-lineup threat over the rest of the season, so pick him up!

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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R.A. Dickey’s new knuckleball

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:02am

Last week, R.A. Dickey announced that he has adjusted his mechanics in an effort to play through pain that in his neck and upper back. The knuckleballer's velocity is down roughly two mph as a result of the nagging injury, and yet he has elected not to spend time on the disabled list. On Sunday, Dickey went seven innings and gave up three earned runs on four hits. Dickey threw a quality start, though his knuckleball hasn't appeared to be very effective. We learned Monday that he will have an MRI this week.

To ensure that his knuckleball crosses the zone at its normal level, Dickey said, he has to “start it higher.” Essentially, Dickey has shifted his vertical release point upward and his horizontal release point a bit further away from his right ear. Depending on what time period you choose as a reference point, the shift in release point seems to measure as a few inches rightward and upward—nothing drastic, but still significant.

Dickey’s average knuckleball velocity was down at its lowest level of the season on Sunday, and the trend doesn’t look encouraging.

Reason to worry?

On the surface, Dickey obviously isn’t blowing us away in 2013. Dickey’s FIP is a full run higher this year than it was last year, He is walking hitters more often, and yet his strikeout rate hasn’t dropped significantly. These statistics need some time to stabilize, however, and it is more appropriate for us to examine Dickey on a deeper level.

Let’s look at the sabermetric results that Dickey is getting from his knuckleball thus far in 2013. This season, hitters are swinging at fewer pitches outside the strike zone (25.4 percent) than they were in 2012 (33.3 percent). Additionally, when hitters do swing at pitches out of the zone, they are making contact at a much higher rate this year in comparison to 2012. This combination doesn’t bode well for Dickey, and it doesn’t surprise me that he is striking out hitters at a lower rate than he was last year. If Dickey can’t induce hitters to chase the knuckler more often, his lower strikeout rate will be here to stay.

So long as his knuckleball is moving at the level it has in the past, Dickey’s new release point doesn’t present any issues. However, the swing rate data I presented above indicate that perhaps Dickey’s knuckleball isn’t as effective as he works through his back pain.

We can break Dickey’s results down even further. I’ll compare levels of PITCHf/x movement observed for this pitch over Dickey’s past few starts to the levels we witnessed in 2012. If we see any major differences in movement caused by Dickey’s altered release point and velocity, the pain is a relevant issue. If not, Dickey’s disappointing start to the season may start to turn around.

What makes a great knuckleball great?

As you might expect, analyzing knuckleball PITCHf/x data is tricky. John Walsh wrote a seminal piece on knuckleball movement here at The Hardball Times in 2007, and his work will allow us to examine the characteristics of an effective knuckler.

To briefly summarize, a knuckleball typically moves anywhere between -10 and 10 inches horizontally, and between -10 and 10 inches vertically (before accounting for the effect of gravity). While most pitches consistently have well defined levels of movement, knuckleballs obviously don’t. I won’t go into the physics of knuckleball movement here, because a graduate degree in physics isn’t a prerequisite for fantasy baseball success. Alan Nathan has done extensive research on the subject, and I’d recommend checking out his website if you’re interested.

Here’s what we do know about knuckleballs. The more they move (horizontally and vertically), the more effective they are—but you didn’t need me to tell you that. Walsh created classifications for these different levels of movement, and his analysis of Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball revealed that OPS against “large movement” knuckleballs was almost 300 points lower than OPS against “small movement” knuckleballs. Pitch sequencing obviously plays a role here, but comparatively, “large movement” knuckleballs are better pitches than “small movement” knuckleballs. Walsh didn’t have much data to work with back in 2007, but I was able to verify his findings for Dickey.

If Dickey is throwing more small movement knuckleballs this year, we can’t expect him to achieve the same results he did in his spectacular 2012 season. Let’s look.

What do we see?

Below, I’ve plotted horizontal and vertical movement on Dickey’s pitches. Dickey’s entire 2012 season is represented on the first graph, and his two most recent starts are the next two graphs. The green dots on the first graph were classified as knuckleballs, as are the blue dots on the next two. Don’t trust the pitch classifications, however, as PITCHf/x classifications for knuckleballs can often be incorrect. These misclassifications aren’t really an issue for us, though. Almost nine out of 10 pitches that Dickey has thrown this year have been knuckleballs.

Recall the Walsh study that I mentioned earlier. Small movement knuckleballs are hit often, and they are often hit harder than the average knuckleball. I’ve defined medium-large movement areas with black rectangles above. You’ll notice that Dickey has been throwing a lot of small movement knuckleballs in 2013. He also threw fewer medium-large movement knuckleballs last Sunday than he has all season. Many factors affect knuckleball movement (weather, wind, etc.), but I’d guess the drop in movement isn’t a coincidence.

The fact that Dickey emerged from his previous start relatively unscathed is a minor miracle. Those who watched Sunday’s start can confirm that Dickey threw a far too many hanging knuckleballs. This one might be a strong candidate for “worst pitch of the season” thus far. Even if the right-hander’s MRI results don’t reveal any significant damage, Dickey should be fighting through this pain in the training room—not on the mound.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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Monday, April 29, 2013

The daily grind: 4-28-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:37am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Wade Davis has a favorable match-up against Ubaldo Jimenez. I expect Davis to have a bit of a bumpy season, but he's a solid pitcher and should have solid stats when all is said and done. He has a great chance to earn a win tonight.

Ted Lilly starts at home against the Rockies. Which is not a great match-up, but I don't have much to point at today.

Dan Straily will start in place of Brett Anderson

Pitcher (bum): Did I just say I don't have much to point at today? Here's a laundry list:

Eesh.

Hitter (power): Chris Carter has the platoon advantage against Andy Pettitte, although I'm not sure that's worth a trip to the wire.

I'm becoming infatuated with Lucas Duda. He's swinging at hardly anything this season and mashing when he does. Jose Fernandez is a talented pitcher, but I think Duda matches up well here.

New name alert! Wellington Castillo and Scott Hairston should both be happy to face Richard.

I should just put Brandon Moss and Seth Smith in the template. I recall thinking that last year, too. I love the A's.

One more, Nolan Reimold against Saunders.

Hitter (speed): Lorenzo Cain is a little too heavily owned at 53 percent, but I need a competent speedster.

I suppose Gerardo Parra could be that guy.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Zach McAllister will face a mediocre Phillies lineup. He's opposed by Roy Halladay, who's no longer on my exploit list.

Kevin Slowey is back on the fringe of fantasy relevance. He's getting more swinging strikes, so the 2011 version of Slowey is more likely to show up than the 2012 version.

I like what Jose Quintana has shown this year, but I'm not a fan of a start against the Rangers.

Pitcher (bum): Jarrod Parker has struggled this season, but I'm more concerned about his immediate match-up with the Angels than his long term outlook.

The Orioles can be a tough assignment for a pitcher like Brandon Maurer.

Vance Worley drew the short straw and is taking on Justin Verlander.

What's more unimpressive, the Yankees lineup or Philip Humber?

Hitter (power): Travis Hafner is stuck with the UTIL only tag, but he's also available in two-thirds of leagues and seemingly loves his new home.

Gio Gonzalez has been inconsistent, so Chris Johnson may be in line for a couple more line drives.

Moss and Smith again? Garrett Richards specializes in a hard fastball, which lines up with their strengths.

Hitter (speed): Something to keep in mind: Eric Young Jr. and Rajai Davis are both getting into a lot of games lately. Davis should play against Jon Lester, although that's hardly an ideal match-up. It's uncertain if Young will play against Hyun-Jin Ryu.

Craig Gentry will get the start against Quintana.

Noteworthy news

Nolan Arenado received the call-up over the weekend and Carlos Ruiz returned to action. You may be too late to grab either guy. You can probably pass on Arenado for re-draft leagues.

Weather watch

Isolated storms could affect the Padres, Cubs, Astros, and Yankees, but it doesn't sound like anything to worry about.

Good enough for me

I'm going to direct you to the Mets section of my division update over at the main THT site. It has some more details on Duda's no-swinging ways.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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The Hot Seat

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:51am

In deep leagues, fantasy owners need to be ahead of the curve and keep a close eye on developing trends. Speculating on players who have a window of opportunity on the horizon that hasn’t quite arrived yet is one way to get a leg up on the competition. Don’t blow your whole FAAB budget waiting for that window to open.

For example, fantasy owners assuredly spent plenty of FAAB dollars on Nolan Arenado after his call-up Sunday. In one of my leagues, I picked him up two weeks ago with a $0 bid. If there’s an open bench or reserve spot on your roster and nothing exciting on the waiver wire, stashing one of the following players is a fine option.

Jarred Cosart

Houston’s starting rotation is just plain awful. The Astros’ rotation has compiled a 6.44 ERA, almost a full run higher than the second-worst rotation ERA (5.48 for the Padres) in the majors. The ragtag crew of Bud Norris, Lucas Harrell, Philip Humber, Brad Peacock and Erik Bedard have combined for a staggering 1.74 WHIP. Manager Bo Porter says that there will be no immediate changes to his rotation, but only Norris and Harrell are secure in their roles.

The Astros have a few options on the major league roster, but they’re unappealing to say the least. Paul Clemens was used mostly as a starter in his minor league career, but he was awful last season in Triple-A, pitching to a 6.73 ERA and 1.74 WHIP in 20 starts. Comparing those numbers to the current Astros rotation, it appears he’d fit right in, but not in a good way.

Travis Blackley made 15 starts in 24 total appearances as a swingman for Oakland last year, but while his numbers were okay (4.54 ERA, 1.24 WHIP as a starter), he hadn’t pitched in the majors since 2007 and is 30 years old. Jose Cisnero was effective as a starter in Double-A in 2012 but had trouble adjusting to Triple-A to end the season and to start 2013 (5.40 ERA, 1.86 WHIP, 1.56 K/BB ratio in 48.1 total innings).

Even still, Blackley or Cisnero likely will get the first shot at a rotation spot when Porter decides to make a switch, but there’s little reason to believe either would be much of an upgrade over Humber, Peacock or Bedard. Jordan Lyles and Dallas Keuchel are in Triple-A, but neither of them would likely generate any excitement for Astros fans or fantasy owners. However, the Astros’ top pitching prospect, Jarred Cosart, is pitching well in Triple-A after impressing in five starts at that level to end 2012.

There have long been questions about Cosart’s ability to be a starter at the major league level. He generally is viewed as a two-pitch pitcher with questionable command, a combination that has late-inning reliever written all over it. Both his fastball and curveball have the potential to be plus-plus offerings, but his changeup isn’t yet a major league-quality pitch, and he hasn’t been as much of a strikeout pitcher as one would expect from a guy with stuff as electric as his.

Since reaching Triple-A last season, the 22-year-old has begun to look like he could stick as a starter. In 49.2 innings in Oklahoma City, Cosart has pitched to a 2.72 ERA, 2.96 FIP and 1.27 WHIP while improving his strikeout rate to 8.52 K/9, his best mark at any level since his Single-A season back in 2010.

When Cosart reaches the majors, which could happen soon, he is unquestionably a huge risk for fantasy purposes. He could carry over his Triple-A production and become an exciting fantasy option. On the other hand, he’s currently pitching in Houston’s wacky tandem-starter minor league system and rarely, if ever, goes more than two times through an opponent’s lineup.

This is a major concern for me. Starters with limited arsenals are prone to struggle when opposing hitters see them multiple times in a game, which is one of the main reasons starters get turned into relievers in the first place.

Cosart’s upside is worthy of a deep bench or reserve stash in AL-only leagues. It’s in the Astros’ best interests to give him every opportunity to succeed as a starter, and Cosart could be a very good one. He also could completely implode and show that he’s not a starter at all. In deep AL-only leagues, he’s worth the gamble.

Oswaldo Arcia

I was highly disappointed to hear of Arenado’s call-up on Sunday because I had planned to feature him in this article. (I can be selfish sometimes.) While everyone knows by now that Arenado is a must-add in nearly every league, especially with the relative weakness of the third base crop this year, I was shocked to discover that Arcia has somehow gone almost completely ignored.

The 21-year-old outfielder was called up to replace the injured Darin Mastroianni and has started seven consecutive games, taking playing time away from Chris Parmelee and Ryan Doumit. Unbelievably, he is owned in just 1.0 percent of Yahoo leagues and 0.4 percent of ESPN leagues. (AL-only owners on CBS seem to have caught on, as his ownership on that site is 13 percent.)

Arcia is a unanimous Top-100 prospect who owns a career .316/.373/.539 line in 1606 minor league plate appearances. What’s even more baffling about his lack of ownership in fantasy leagues is that the major knocks on him as a prospect (below-average speed and defensive tools) have no impact on his fantasy value. Power-hitting corner outfielders aren’t expected to steal bases, and defense doesn’t matter in fantasy.

Arcia is hitting just .194, but it’s a miniscule 33 plate-appearance sample size, and he’s already hit two homers, the first of which was a no-doubter blast onto the concourse beyond the right-field bleachers at Target Field.

So why Arcia he virtually unowned, even in AL-only leagues? Maybe nobody’s been watching the Twins, or maybe people think he’ll head back to Triple-A once Mastroianni returns to health. I expect that Arcia is here to say; young stud prospects like him are the future for the Twins, not guys like Parmelee, Doumit, Mastroianni or Wilkin Ramirez.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Arcia hits .260 with 15 homers this season. He is a must-own in AL-only leagues and well worth a look in mixed-league dynasty formats, too. Plus, if you play anywhere other than CBS, you probably can just go grab him for free. What a bargain.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 5, Vol. I

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:03am

Here at The Hardball Times' Waiver Wire desk (located in the basement of the very fine THT building), my compatriot Karl de Vries and I spend a lot of time looking at trends. We scour countless player profiles for something unusual, something unexpected, something that has been overlooked for one reason or another.

It seems helpful, then, to offer a reminder about some of the trends we talk about, and when those statistics will stabilize. There are good pieces on this here, here, and here, that expand upon previous work by Russell Carleton and Harry Pavlidis.

At this point in the season, everyday players have crossed the 100 plate appearance threshold, and many of the platoon players I mention in this space are around the 60 PA mark, which means right now the data regarding swing rates, contact rates, strikeout rates, walk rates and home run rates are either fairly trustworthy or getting close to that point. (Note: this is way more true for hitters than it is for pitchers, those fickle beasts).

So, yes, it's still early in the season, and a lot of the trends Karl and I dig up still are to be taken with a large helping of salt, but they aren't complete flukes anymore, either. Just a friendly reminder as the season's first month comes to an end. As always, let's take a look around the league at some players we've featured here, which we ~~always nail~~ sometimes get right:

Saturday brought news regarding Red Sox relievers Joel Hanrahan and Andrew Bailey. It seems Hanrahan is nearing a return, and Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe states that Harahan is expected to resume closing when he rejoins the team. I'm skeptical for now, mostly because Bailey has been very good, and Hanrahan was pretty bad before getting shut down.

If you were smart and listened to Karl when he promoted Bailey earlier this year, now is not the time to drop him. Instead, wait to see how this actually plays out. It seems unlikely the Red Sox will continue propping up Hanrahan if Bailey continues to excel.

Elsewhere in the world of teams named after foot apparel, the White Sox placed starter Gavin Floyd on the disabled list Sunday. Dylan Axelrod was featured here just before the season, and while he wasn't strongly recommended, he's been quietly solid for the pale hose. John Danks is on a Triple-A rehab assignment and seems close to returning, so Floyd's injury will keep Axelrod in the rotation for longer than originally anticipated.

Axelrod still is the guy to get jettisoned when the White Sox are fully healthy, but for the time being, he can be used in a pinch or as part of a plan to stream starters in good situations. He's been decent across the board, so while he is still not a big upside play, you could do worse for a guy who is still widely available.

Jake Westbrook has made four starts for the Cardinals and currently has an ERA below 1.00. Given the good fortune he's had in a number of areas (strand rate and home run rate chief among them) and the fact that he's walked as many hitters as he's struck out, I wouldn't expect that to continue.

On to today's ~~victims~~ featured players, shall we?

Luis Valbuena | Chicago Cubs | 3B | ESPN: 0.6 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 1 percent; CBS: 7 percent
YTD: .237/.338/.475 in 68 PA
ZiPS Updated Projection: .245/.323/.398 in 538 PA

Ian Stewart | Chicago Cubs | 3B | ESPN: 0 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 0 percent; CBS: 3 percent
YTD: .100/.243./.133 in 37 Triple-A PA
ZiPS Updated Projection: .210/.296/.376 in 328 PA

I'm choosing to highlight the Cubs' third basemen for three reasons:

1. Luis Valbuena has been outstanding thus far, but nobody seems to care.
2. Ian Stewart is on his Triple-A rehab assignment and seemingly will be back in the majors soon.
3. I need to work out my thoughts on how this will all play out. So let's enjoy the journey together.

Stewart is the bigger household name, and he's had more major league success than Valbuena by a wide margin. The problem is, most of that success came before a rash of injuries derailed his career, including wrist surgery last season and a quadriceps injury that has him yet to play in the majors this year. These setbacks unfortunately leave us unsure about what he has left, how far his skill has diminished since he was last healthy (assuming there was a time when he was healthy), and what kind of player he will be going forward.

It's mostly impossible to answer any of those questions, so a lot of how this all shakes out depends on how Stewart looks at Triple-A (not very good, thus far) when/if he gets called back up to the big club, and what kind of role the Cubs give him when/if he does indeed make it back. Manager Dale Sveum has said Stewart will have to earn his starting gig back, and that might be harder to do than some would make it seem.

First the major league stuff. Yeah, Valbuena's numbers at the game's highest level are not good, this is true. He has a career .225/.295/.350 line in 337 games spread across six seasons (including the current one), but that's precisely my problem with writing him off. He's in his sixth big league season, and he's still just 27 years old. Despite varying degrees of solid numbers in the minor leagues, he's never been given a real shot to be an everyday player.

Given the majority of the playing time at third base to start the year with the Cubs, Valbuena has posted strong results despite some poor luck. His average is low, but assuming his BABIP of .233 trends up going forward, I'd expect his average to do the same. Valbuena's walk rate and ISO have been superb as well, 11.8 percent and .237, respectively, and they have not been far outside his results in the minor leagues.

At every stop of his minor league career, Valbuena has walked. He's generally been around 10 percent while striking out around 15 percent. He's also flashed impressive power, with a career minor league ISO of .157, but with stretches of brilliance, including a .218 mark in 2009 at Triple-A 2009 as a 23-year-old, and a .292 mark the following year at the same level. Granted, we're talking about sample sizes of 95 and 119 plate appearances, but still, the skill is there, and now he's getting enough playing time to put it on display. Whether or not that continues to be the case depends in large part on what's happening with Stewart.

Either one of Valbuena or Stewart can have value, but not both. This is not a case where the Cubs will work out a useful platoon using these two players. If Stewart proves healthy, it's likely he will come up. If he's playing well, he's the guy for the Cubs, and Valbuena likely will be relegated to super-sub duty, splitting time between third base and second.

It's worth mentioning that Valbuena does not have the kind of platoon splits that mean he needs to split time at third base. In fact, if anything, it might be fair to make the case that he has a reverse platoon split, despite the fact that the Cubs have been sitting him against lefties lately. So if Stewart fails to regain the ability to hit like he did during his best days in Colorado, and if Valbuena keeps up his current production, it stands to reason that the seemingly woeful situation at third base in Chicago has found an unlikely answer in Valbuena.

I suppose Josh Vitters merits a mention here, if only because some might wonder where he factors into this equation. If you ask me, he doesn't. I've never been a big fan, and he's been on the disabled list most of the season with back soreness. For now, there's nothing to see here.

Recommendation: It's a bit of an unsatisfying conclusion that much of Valbuena's value depends on what Stewart is doing, but as someone who is skeptical of Stewart after wrist surgery and a delayed start to this season, and someone who has always kind of liked Valbuena, I'm inclined to recommend the current Cubs' third baseman.

He's a great addition for the time being until the Cubs do something with Stewart, and Valbuena bears watching after that point as well. If Stewart comes up and starts hitting like the good old days, it's worth remembering that he's just 28 years old and can be a wonderful waiver wire find if healthy. I'm just skeptical about that last part.

John Lackey| Boston Red Sox | SP | ESPN: 6.5 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 9 percent; CBS: 17 percent
YTD: 4.1 IP, two earned runs allowed, one walk, eight strikeouts
ZiPS Updated Projection: 5.26 ERA in 104.3 IP

One of the best ways to achieve fantasy success is to capitalize when a players' narrative overshadows his actual resume. That might be happening right now with John Lackey.

The narrative is well known. Lackey signed a huge five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Red Sox before his age-31 season in 2010, and the on-field results have not been good. He posted 3.9 WAR in that 2010 season, but mostly because he racked up 215 innings. On a game-by-game basis he was merely average, and that season was by far his best in Boston to date.

In 2011 Lackey had an ugly 6.41 ERA (which admittedly was unlucky, but he still was not very good), and he missed all of 2012 after having Tommy John surgery. Throw in off-field issues with the media, and you have a player whose name invokes more eyerolls than analysis.

The thing is, Lackey was once very good, and he's still not that old. He made his season debut April 6 against Toronto and looked sharp, touching 94 miles per hour with his fastball and striking out eight batters over 4.1 innings. I was getting set to recommend him, right when he suffered an injury that looked terrible but turned out to be nothing more than a cramp.

Lackey is back again, tossing six strong innings Sunday against the Astros, allowing one run and striking out four while walking two. Maybe most importantly, he looked plenty healthy. If he is, he can provide value for mixed-league owners.

Recommendation: Worth adding in mixed leagues while he's healthy. He won't be a game breaker, but guys who can provide wins and toss league-average numbers across the board don't grow on trees.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Friday, April 26, 2013

The daily grind: 4-26-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): If you're in a keeper league, Andrew Cashner should probably be owned outright. For redraft leagues, he's more of a streaming option.

I've already taken some flak for recommending Dillon Gee, but I'm going to continue to do so.

Ervin Santana is always going to be a meltdown risk, but opposing Scott Kazmir should increase his odds of winning. Rain in the forecast could shorten his outing.

Wei-Yin Chen is a name I turn to automatically, but as I explained yesterday, there is some reason to be concerned this season.

Pitcher (bum): If the Cardinals don't run Jonathan Sanchez out of the game early, you will have witnessed some kind of Christmas miracle.

Kazmir will need to learn how to limit hits if he wants to stick in the majors.

Erik Bedard is a solid enough pitcher, but the Astros seem to be easing him into the starting role. The Red Sox should see lots of Astros relievers.

Aaron Harang may be a bit rusty still and the Angels have the kind of offense that capitalizes on rust.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda against Kyle Kendrick is a must play. Kendrick looks to have consolidated his improvement from last season, but I still expect lefties to hit well.

Daniel Nava has another great match-up in Kazmir.

Carlos Pena will see Ryan Dempster in Fenway.

Hitter (speed): Peter Bourjos should spend some time on the bases tonight.

Craig Gentry might be a better start against Scott Diamond.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I've seen it theorized that the Yankees are weak against left-handed pitchers. I have not tested that theory, but I like J.A. Happ's match-up all the same.

Travis Wood has had a nice start to the season. His peripherals aren't telling a story of remarkable improvement, but he does face the dreadful Marlins. Even Giancarlo Stanton's bat goes to die there...

I feel like I was just recommending Felix Doubront and it's time to pull out his name again. He faces the Astros.

Pitcher (bum): I don't even know where to start with exploitable match-ups tomorrow, there's just so many. Here's a few names and their opponent.

Jeff Francis - Diamondbacks
Brad Peacock - Red Sox
Ubaldo Jimenez - Royals
Dan Haren - Reds
Rick Porcello - Braves

Hitter (power): Cody Ross has been quiet thus far, but tomorrow's match-up might put him back on the radar.

I suppose you should continue holding Daniel Nava.

Looks like a Juan Francisco day.

Try Chris Carter against Doubront. He is a bit home run prone, after all.

Hitter (speed): I'm going to gamble that Rajai Davis both starts against CC Sabathia and also gets a chance to steal a base.

It's another day for Gentry.

Weather watch

There is an expectation of rain in Missouri, which will affect the Pirates, Cardinals, Indians, and Royals. The games don't appear likely to be cancelled, but delays and adverse conditions could come into play.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 4, Vol III

Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:58am

Since we last checked in, Didi Gregorius and Marwin Gonzalez have shown flashes of playing above the AL and NL-only level I originally dismissed them as, though they’ve yet to earn their way onto mixed league rosters in all but the deepest of leagues. Meanwhile, our old friend Justin Maxwell is going to miss a few weeks due to a fractured hand, while Monday’s guest, Jose Quintana, has seen his ownership start to climb thanks to a win he earned on Wednesday against the Indians.

But that’s in the past. Let’s look ahead to some more waiver wire candidates who could provide a boost in this still-young season.

Lucas Harrell | Houston Astros | SP | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1 percent ESPN; 12 percent CBS
YTD: 28.2 IP / 5.55 FIP / 6.28 K/9 / 4.71 BB/9
Oliver: 170 IP / 3.73 FIP / 6.13 K/9 / 3.96 BB/9

Let’s start with some basic facts about Lucas Harrell’s team, the Astros.

• The Astros are doody.
• Doody teams that play alongside meat-craving Bengal tigers like the Texas Rangers and the Los Angeles Angels in their division tend to get torn apart.
• Teams that get torn apart don’t generate wins for their starters, which hurts their fantasy value.

Simple enough, right? The Astros stink, it’s not like Harrell is some latter-day Nolan Ryan (or Larry Dierker, or J.R. Richard), and thus his fantasy value is zilch, right?

Well, maybe. But maybe not.

The fact is, Harrell’s numbers are a bit too complicated for my taste, since we can basically divide his season between one horrific start (4.1 innings, eight earned runs, three home runs) and four pretty decent outings (a combined 24.1 innings with a 1.85 ERA and 6.66 K/9), two of which were against those fearsome Rangers and Angels. Yes, he’s benefited from a favorable 84.6 percent strand rate this season, but his BABIP is right where it should be, and his fine 54.7 percent groundball rate, if anything, feels a tad low given his career average (56.1 percent).

A look at Harrell’s minor league numbers don’t suggest a future ace here, but the 27-year-old held his own in 2012, his first full major league season, when he posted a 3.76 ERA (backed up by a similar FIP and xFIP) along with a not-bad 6.51 K/9 and 3.62 BB/9. Of course, that was back when the Astros played in the NL Central, a far cry from the AL West, but even if the improved competition takes a bite out of his performance, a second season for a guy who keeps the ball on the ground in Minute Maid Park might bear the fruits of maturity and experience.

If you’ve read this far and haven’t raced out to pick up an Astros rotation man, I don’t blame you, since Harrell’s ceiling this year feels very limited. But surely, someone, somewhere in a deep AL-only league needs a starter, and since it seems certain that Harrell is available in your league, he might be a guy worth taking a look at.

Recommendation: Worth a look in AL-only leagues.

Andrew Cashner | San Diego Padres | SP | 11 percent Yahoo ownership; .4 percent ESPN; 32 percent CBS
YTD: 13.1 IP / 4.43 FIP / 9.45 K/9 / 4.73 BB/9
Oliver: 64 IP / 2.95 FIP / 8.99 K/9 / 3.51 BB/9

This might be the easiest waiver wire entry I’ve ever written.

Cashner throws mid-90s gas and gets ground balls to the tune of a lifetime 50.6 percent rate. Add in Petco Park, and the fact that Cashner is entering the prime of his career, and you have a bona fide sleeper who could work wonders for mixed fantasy leagues everywhere.

But there was a problem coming out of spring training: Anxious to limit Cashner’s innings this season, and mindful of an offseason hunting accident that hurt his right thumb, the Padres placed him in the bullpen and handed his rotation spot to Tyson Ross, whom I wrote about in early April.

But then Ross went ahead and partially dislocated his left shoulder, forcing him to the DL. Has that opened up a spot for Cashner? It’s still a bit too soon to say for sure, but it definitely looks that way, since the 26-year-old was stretched out in a four-inning start on Saturday. He took the loss, thanks to a two-run Pablo Sandoval home run, but otherwise looked sharp, punching out five hitters against one walk. Tonight, he faces those same Giants again, this time at home, and manager Bud Black seems ready to move Cashner into the starting rotation.

Cashner isn’t without his faults, not the least of which is an injury history and a difficulty avoiding the free pass (lifetime 4.33 BB/9). But the upside is real, and the only reason he’s unowned in so many leagues—and the only reason he appears in a column that’s typically about under-the-radar fantasy assets—is because people forgot about him. Don’t make the same mistake. See how he does tonight if you’re hesitant, but I think he’s going to be in the rotation going forward, and once that’s official, the key piece in last year’s Anthony Rizzo trade will disappear from the free agent pool in everything resembling a fantasy baseball league.

Recommendation: Buy. Buy. Buy. Buy.

Felix Doubront | Boston Red Sox | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership; 8 percent ESPN; 52 percent CBS
YTD: 16.2 IP / 2.89 FIP / 11.34 K/9 / 4.86 BB/9
Oliver: 125 IP / 3.85 FIP / 8.06 K/9 / 3.74 BB/9

Compared to, say, mapping the human genome or researching faster-than-light travel, finding starting pitching in fantasy baseball is a relatively easy proposition: Look for guys who get strikeouts and then climb aboard. In the case of Doubront, 25, he’s already done that, compiling a career 9.17 K/9 in 213 innings, and was able to maintain his strikeout-per-inning goodness through 29 starts last year.

But like Quintana, Doubront’s ownership level is surprisingly low, perhaps because people are scared off by the 4.32 ERA (which his FIP laughs at), or the 4.86 walk rate (which is not supported by his minor league history), or they’re confusing the 2012 trainwreck that was the Boston Red Sox with this year’s team, which was off to a 14-7 start entering Thursday.

Regardless, Doubront offers upside playing for a team that should at least give him a fighting chance to win every night. Yes, the baserunners could be a potential problem (nine walks combined in his last two starts after a 1.45 WHIP last year), but this guy is still young and has a chance to blossom in his second full major league season. For a lot of owners playing in deep leagues, that certainly justifies some consideration, and when the walks come down to earth, a look in many mixed leagues.

Recommendation: Worth owning in all AL-only leagues.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, April 25, 2013

The daily grind: 4-25-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:34am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Garrett Richards' skill set continues to intrigue me despite that he doesn't get glowing reviews. With half of the Mariners offense broken, this should be a fairly safe start.

Some fringier choices include Kevin Slowey, Jorge de la Rosa, and (as a reader suggested) Nick Tepesch. Slowey and Tepesch have good match-ups—the Cubs and Twins respectively. De la Rosa has a tougher assignment against the Diamondbacks, but he's probably also the best pitcher of this trio.

Pitcher (bum): Four pitchers combine predictable shakiness with a tough opponent. I would bet most heavily against Brandon Maurer versus the Angels, although Vance Worley against the Rangers and Philip Humber at Boston are pretty rough.

Jeremy Hefner is matched up against the Dodgers, which is slightly more friendly than the other games. However, he might be the worst pitcher of the bunch.

Hitter (power): I'm hoping for big things out of Daniel Nava today since I snatched him up in a league.

Vernon Wells is up to 47 percent owned. Meanwhile, I still can't figure out if he should be owned. His match-up today is nice though.

Seth Smith and Brandon Moss will get a shot at Jason Hammel today.

Hitter (speed): Not a big speed day. Try Nate Schierholtz's five category production.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Tomorrow has a lot of fringy names that could be used as a spot start or a target to start against. One name I'm excited to recommend is Andrew Cashner. I expect his ownership to shoot up from 10 percent to over 50 percent quickly.

Wei-Yin Chen is available in two-thirds of leagues, but I'm a little worried. His whiff rate has halved, which saps a lot of his value. He's also limiting home runs despite giving up an insane number of fly balls and line drives (over 70 percent of balls in play).

Ervin Santana's another guy I hate to recommend, but I do think his odds of earning the coveted "W" are higher than most. He opposes Scott Kazmir.

The Phillies always seem to get to Dillon Gee, but I'm not going to hold that small sample against him. If Cashner isn't available in your league, this is the guy I'd use.

Pitcher (bum): Erik Bedard is on some kind of pitch count limit, which means that the Red Sox will get to see a lot of time against the soft underbelly of the Astros bullpen.

Kazmir made his season debut last week and looked quite hittable. The Royals will try to prove me correct.

Jonathan Sanchez is just an auto-post here at this point. I could see a late career revival out of bullpen like Oliver Perez, but I think it's time to stick a fork in him. He faces the Cardinals.

The Angels face a potentially still-rusty Aaron Harang.

Hitter (power): I think a hold on Nava is advisable.

It's been awhile since I recommended Carlos Pena. I think the match-up against Dempster is tolerable for him.

Lucas Duda is up to 25 percent. If you recall from earlier in the season, I recommended starting Duda against Kyle Kendrick even when the two teams weren't playing each other.

Hitter (speed): Peter Bourjos is going to start swiping bases at some point.

Craig Gentry will get the start against Scott Diamond.

Noteworthy news

Robbie Grossman had a nice debut for the Astros yesterday with two doubles. He's a switch hitter with the ability to hit about 10 home runs and steal 10 bases. Which sounds to me like a good streaming option but not somebody to own outright.

Weather watch

The Royals and Tigers may be affected by rain, but they'll be able to play the game.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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FAAB optimization: spend early, spend often

Posted by Moe Koltun at 3:54am

My father taught me how to play fantasy baseball. He’s been in the same AL-Only rotisserie league with his college buddies for 21 years and counting, and he uses his fantasy veteran status as an opportunity to confidently brandy about sweeping fantasy adages whenever he gets the chance. Some of them can be detrimental —for example, his proclivity for spending 50-60 percent of his budget on under six players in every single auction isn’t universally effective—but overall, there are a ton of useful nuggets of wisdom he’s passed down to me over the years playing together.

One of those nuggets is his FAAB bidding strategy. First, a quick recommendation: If your league still uses waivers, I’d urge you to talk with your league about switching to Free Agent Auction Bidding in the future. Sure, there’s some skill in managing waiver claims, and the process is a tiny bit simpler, but there is significantly more skill in taking a big budget and figuring out how you want to allocate your resources as needs arise throughout the season, rather than just selecting in an arbitrarily-ordered line. Not only is FAAB more comprehensive, it also more closely mimics what it would be like to run a real baseball team which, in the end, is what playing fantasy sports is vicariously about.

This strategy looks at FAAB from an entirely mathematical perspective. Quite simply, in most leagues there are either 25 or 26 fantasy weeks of the season, so with every week that passes, a player’s hypothetical FAAB "value" goes down by about four percent.

Think about it this way: a guy who you pick up in week five has the upside to give you production for the remaining 20 weeks of the season, whereas a guy you grab in week 15 can produce for a maximum of 10 weeks. That means, hypothetically, a player that you pick up in week five who has the exact same production as a player you pick up in week 15 is actually two times as valuable as the latter player. He has the upside to produce doubly in every category.

Even in the ratio categories, the two players’ batting averages or ERAs might be the same number, but the weight of that average or ERA over the greater time frame will count double to your overall team ratio. Clearly the opportunity for "counting stats" will also be doubled, given the player will have two times the number of plate appearances or innings pitched.

In mixed leagues, it’s easy to follow this formula to a T. I try to spend at least 50 percent of my FAAB budget in the first month and a half, putting in as many early-season speculative upside bids as possible. Sure, that makes me look stupid a high percentage of the time—like when I bid over 15 percent of my budget on the Royals’ Kila Ka’aihue in 2010 or two weeks ago when I, as a panicked AL-Only Greg Holland owner, luckily lost a bid for well over 20 percent of my $500 budget on Kelvin Herrera by exactly one dollar—but it’s also what got me Kris Medlen in more than half of my leagues last year, and Brandon Beachy the year before that, and Doug Fister the year before that.

More than any other time in the season, the beginning of the year is when previously unknown commodities can surprise, and allocating most of your budget during that span has the added bonus of providing much more opportunity for long-term value.

In single league formats, however, following this strategy has a slight twist. In mixed leagues there is no influx of talent that makes it more likely to find a huge amount of value on the wire later along in the season. However, in AL and NL-only leagues, talent doesn’t matriculate into the league at an even pace throughout the year. The existence of the trade deadline makes it possible, and even likely, that an otherwise impossibly good talent could be randomly placed on the wire at midseason.

There are always three or four teams that save almost all of their money until the deadline. As a guy who has been in an AL-only league for five years now, and tried the "Save It Up" strategy in three of those, I’m here to say: Do not be one of those owners.

Yes, it’s true that once in a while a stud will get traded into your league. And if you’re really, really lucky, you might get two at the same deadline. The problem is, there are basically never less than three teams with 90-100 percent of their FAAB budget still remaining at that time of the year. If you’re not one of those top two teams, you’re absolutely screwed, having wasted half of the season without adding any high-priced talent from the wire.

Even if you are one of those lucky one or two, though, you are committing yourself to spending 50-70 percent of your budget on this one player. That’s because the choice to bid on that traded player is almost always so obvious to the rest of the league that in order to make sure you actually get him, you have no choice but to bid one dollar more than whatever amount of FAAB the team one spot below you has.

Last season, three big names got traded from the NL to AL—Zack Greinke, Ryan Dempster and Anibal Sanchez. I had the fourth most FAAB remaining, and you know who I got? Omar Infante. For over 35 percent of my budget.

As a generality, I’d rather take a shot on five or six guys early in the year and hope one of them becomes a consistent contributor throughout. Even if I could have been in the hunt for Zack Greinke, the production of those five or six guys for double the timeframe has more potential value to my team.

When it comes to FAAB bidding, the optimal strategy is to spend early and often, because for every Matt Adams or Jordan Pacheco or Kila Ka’aihue there’s an Addison Reed and a Jose Bautista and a Buster Posey. If you’re going to add a high upside talent, they might as well have the opportunity to give you three or four months of production instead of just one or two, and given the high variance nature of players with upside, it behooves you to try to spread those resources out in as many avenues as possible.

As a loose rule, I try to spend anywhere from 40-75 percent of my budget in the first two months on four to six different players, and if you’re insistent on the "Save For The Deadline" strategy in single league formats, I would make sure you have 95 percent or more of your budget intact to ensure you’re one of those top two teams in FAAB at the time.

Moe Koltun is a co-founder of RotoAnalysis.com and hosts the weekly RotoAnalysis Fantasy Sports Podcast. Follow him on Twitter @moeproblems.

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The Roto Grotto: dispersal of hitter counting stats

Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:39am

The hardest part of preparing strategy for a roto league is the lack of information. Even if you knew before the season the exact final statistics of your players, you would still need to put those statistics in the context of your league. 300 home runs will be enough for maximum points in some leagues, and only minimum points in others. Since I’m not attached to a site that hosts leagues, I do not have a database of league statistics to accurately forecast points for various statistical plateaus.

Fortunately, I can approximate those values with data that has been published. In their draft kit prior to 2012, ESPN published the minimum, maximum, and average benchmarks for all of their standard, 10-team roto leagues from 2009-2011. They may not help for deeper leagues or those with exotic categories, but these tables provide a solid foundation for the most common categories and league sizes.

Looking at those averages, you can see that a team that projects to have 300 home runs, 1,100 runs, 1,050 RBI, and 175 steals should expect to net 10, eight, seven, and seven roto points in those respective categories on average. You can also see that it would require about 24 runs, 42 RBI, and 26 steals to barely beat out an average nine-point team in each of those categories.

Since that example team has already reached 300 home runs, enough to earn the maximum 10 roto points, the owner can go ahead and trade away players he expects to hit home runs for players that produce in those needed categories. Since he needs just 24 runs compared to 42 RBI and 26 steals, he might be tempted to try to trade for players that score a lot of runs. However, he already expects eight roto points in runs compared to only seven points in both RBI and steals.

Really, even if the team needed the same number of runs, RBI, and steals for the same additional roto points in each category, the owner should not be indifferent to the category he trades; statistics in those categories do not occur with the same frequency. Fewer steals happen in a season than there are runs and RBI, and far fewer wins are earned by pitchers than any other traditional counting statistic.

Since I do not know which players were owned by what percentage of fantasy teams in a given season, I opted to calculate the roto point benchmarks as a percentage of the total of each statistic in the entire league. For now, I am assuming that a similar percentage of each available statistic is captured by the owned players in a fantasy league, which seems fair since each category has the same available roto points.

Here are the totals of each hitter counting statistic from 2010-2012, as well as the three-year average of each:

Season	HR	Runs	RBI	SB
2012	4934	21017	19999	3229
2011	4552	20808	19804	3279
2010	4613	21308	20288	2957
Avg	4700	21044	20030	3155

And based on the ESPN averages, here are the roto point benchmarks for each category as a percentage of the league totals of each statistic:

	% of Annual League Total, 2010-2012
Roto Points	HR	Runs	RBI	SB
10	6.59%	5.52%	5.64%	7.02%
9	6.22%	5.34%	5.45%	6.35%
8	5.97%	5.22%	5.31%	5.93%
7	5.77%	5.12%	5.20%	5.58%
6	5.58%	5.02%	5.09%	5.27%
5	5.39%	4.92%	4.98%	4.95%
4	5.19%	4.81%	4.86%	4.64%
3	4.96%	4.68%	4.71%	4.29%
2	4.68%	4.51%	4.53%	3.85%
1	4.23%	4.21%	4.21%	3.21%

This table presents the relative cost of each additional roto point with every category on the same scale. You can eyeball the columns to get a sense of which categories are more dispersed than others. Standard deviation summarizes those differences in a single number for each category:

	HR	Runs	RBI	SB
StdDev	0.72%	0.40%	0.44%	1.16%

The hitter counting stats fall into three distinct tiers. On average, runs and RBI are the easiest categories in which to gain and lose ground, stolen bases are the hardest, and home runs are in-between. That may not be enough information to determine the optimal target category for the example team, but it is enough to demonstrate that the differences in volume of needed runs, RBI, and steals does not eliminate any category from consideration in a potential trade.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

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Wednesday, April 24, 2013

The daily grind: 4-24-13

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday's postponement means that Zach McAllister faces Jose Quintana today, which gives me two pitchers I'm comfortable enough to recommend.

Wandy Rodriguez is a good option if he's available in your league.

Ted Lilly is probably available in your league, but I'm staying away until I see something.

Pitcher (bum): Edinson Volquez has struggled this season and I expect the Brewers' potent offense to continue pummeling him.

The three TBA I mentioned yesterday turned into Tyler Chatwood, Josh Stinson and Michael Roth. You can target against all three.

Hitter (power): Chris Carter has the platoon advantage versus Joe Saunders.

Jonny Gomes draws Brett Anderson as he attempts to stave off a trip to the disabled list.

John Mayberry will see another lefty today.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable might be the best gamble for steals today.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Garrett Richards appears to have the peripherals required to be useful, including an above-average whiff rate, velocity, and solid control. His repertoire isn't advanced, but the Mariners don't sport a great offense.

Jason Hammel is 44 percent owned. If he's available in your league, he faces an effective Athletics lineup.

If you're willing to look at Hammel, you probably should be willing to think about Kevin Slowey or Jorge de la Rosa. I know you shuddered upon reading those names, but their peripherals suggest an expected outcome similar to Hammel. I won't be using them, for what it's worth.

Pitcher (bum): Four names look particularly exploitable tomorrow.

Brandon Maurer and Vance Worley have the toughest assignments by opponent—the Angels and Rangers respectively. I actually like both pitchers long term, but they each have things they need to figure out right now.

Philip Humber's assignment is nearly as difficult. He opposes the Red Sox.

By comparison, the Dodgers lineup is a gimme assignment for Jeremy Hefner, although I expect crooked numbers all the same.

Hitter (power): Daniel Nava has really transformed himself into a capable major leaguer. I expect him to like batting against Humber.

Let Vernon Wells take a stab at Mark Buehrle, unless someone in your league has already bought in on his resurgence. For what it's worth, a quick perusal of the stat-ery leaves me uncertain that anything has changed for Wells.

I suppose I ought to recommend Seth Smith and Brandon Moss, even though I also recommended Hammel.

Hitter (speed): I like Nate Schierholtz's mix of skills. He's good roster glue.

Noteworthy news

Chad Billingsley once was a promising fantasy pitcher with upside. Now it's been several years since he's been relevant. Anyone who was hoping to see a dead cat bounce will have to wait while he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

Jose Valverde had his contract purchased by the Tigers and will now serve as their closer. I wouldn't rush to the wire unless you're flat out desperate.

Weather watch

The Cubs and Reds might have a delayed start, but it looks like today is mostly clear.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 4, Vol II

Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:18am

I was watching the Cubs the other night (something I am sadly prone to do) when recent Waiver Wire feature Welington Castillo came to the plate, drew a 2-1 count, and I thought briefly:

Holy smokes, I am going to will Welington Castillo to his first walk of the season. Right ... now. I am the man.

On the very next pitch he swung and missed so hard that his helmet popped off (something it seems he does fairly often), and one strike later he was back on the bench. Still no walks.

Can't win 'em all. Castillo has continued crushing since he was a recommendation here, though, to the tune of a now .838 OPS. He's still due for a big drop due to a too-high BABIP of .450, but I still like the dude. A lot. He's worth a pickup.

Elsewhere in the Waiver Wire records:

Karl wrote about Travis Hafner awhile back, and he hasn't dropped off since. He's a must-add at this point.

Chris Johnson was one of the most added players on CBS this week (from 28 percent to 65 percent), but I'm sticking by my guns that he's due for a massive decline, probably soon, and Juan Francisco is a better buy there. Playing time lately has favored Johnson as the Braves have faced left-handed pitchers in three of their last four games.

Andrew Bailey now has four saves since he appeared in this space, and he's striking out more than 40 percent of the batters he's facing. It's looking more and more like Joel Hanrahan will be returning as the setup man.

Speaking of closers:

Rafael Betancourt | Colorado Rockies | RP | ESPN: 100 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 89 percent; CBS: 85 percent
YTD: 7 saves, 1.93 ERA, 9.1 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 3.25 ERA in 55.3 IP

Rex Brothers | Colorado Rockies | RP | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent ; CBS: 6 percent
YTD: 1.00 ERA in 9 IP
ZiPS Updated Projection: 3.55 ERA in 71 IP

No, I am not about to recommend picking up Rafael Betancourt, who is clearly owned almost everywhere. My waiver wire brother Karl and I have have good success pinpointing closers about to take over: Kyuji Fujikawa, Jim Henderson, and Andrew Bailey to name a few. It's probably the result of our staggering intelligence and leading man looks. Or, like, something.

Today I ring the first alarm bells for Rafael Betancourt. The Rockies veteran was seen as a solid B-list closer entering the season, featuring strong strikeout rates and excellent control, but whose value was tempered by a few realities:

1. He closes for a team that is not expected to be very good.
2. He pitches in Coors Field.
3. He's an extreme flyball pitcher, which, when combined with the above, means he's going to give up home runs every so often.
4. He's in the final year of his contract, and therefore makes a good real-life trade candidate, which means he may or not still be closing later in the year.

Despite all of this, I saw him as a safe option entering the year, and have him on an expiring deal in my dynasty league. Well, I put him on the block Sunday night, and if you own him, now might be the right time for you to do the same. This might be especially true because (on a visceral level) things seem to be going fine for the right-hander at the moment. He has seven saves in seven chances, over 9.1 innings during which he's posted a stingy 1.93 ERA. His job is still seen as secure.

His 3.35 FIP and 5.60 xFIP (5.60!!) point to struggles ahead, though. Most of that is due to a BABIP of just .179 and the fact that he has yet to allow a home run on any of the 15 fly balls he's yielded this season, but there are other things that concern me as well.

1. Strikeouts are down and walks are up. Way down, and way up. Betancourt is currently fanning 11 percentage points less than his career average, at 15.4 percent. This wouldn't be a terrible thing, given his pinpoint control in recent years between 3-5 percent, but in 2013 thus far Betancourt is also walking 12.8 percent of the batters he's facing. That's more than twice last year's figure of 5.1 percent.
2. Velocity is down a tick. It's not a ton, and it's still early in the year, but Betancourt has averaged just 89.8 miles per hour on his fastball this season, down from 92.8 in 2010, 92.3 in 2011 and 91.4 last year.
3. His O-Swing% is way down (25.6 percent). This figure is below 30 percent for the first time since 2009, and nearly 13 points down from his career high mark of 38.4 percent in 2010.
4. His swinging strike rate has plummeted, as well, dropping below 10 percent for the first time in his career.

None of these factors (by themselves) are a death knell for Betancourt's fantasy value and it must be stated (as always) that it is still very early. Betancourt has faced 39 batters this season, and he's generally gotten them out for the Rockies. He has yet to blow a save. And he's been a very good pitcher for years. But taking all of these factors in concert ... I'm concerned. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see Betancourt implode soon, and then again soon after that, and we've seen closers replaced for less this season.

If that ends up happening, my vote to replace him is Rex Brothers, although Matt Belisle and Wilton Lopez would be strong candidates as well. All three relievers have been solid for Colorado, with varying degrees of luck sprinkled in. Brothers has the best velocity of the bunch (93 mph this season, 95 the previous two), and he currently has the best actual results. It's kind of splitting hairs among him, Belisle and Lopez, and there's literally no telling what the Rockies will do.

Recommendation: The suggestion here is to watch this position closely. It's certainly possible that Betancourt's peripherals catch back up with his results, and he hangs onto this job all season. It is equally possible, however, that the points mentioned above signal trouble on the horizon. If you're desperate for saves, this might be an area in which to capitalize. Brothers, Belisle and Lopez can all provide help in deeper leagues where setup men have value. Otherwise, take a wait-and-see approach to determine whether Betancourt can get his stuff back in line, and whether one of the would-be replacements can separate from the pack.

Allen Webster | Boston Red Sox | SP | ESPN: 1.6 percent ownership; Yahoo!: 2 percent; CBS: 11 percent
YTD: 6 IP, 2 ER, 5 strikeouts, one walk
ZiPS Updated Projection: 4.89 ERA in 114 IP

Webster made his major league debut Sunday night, and held his own, striking out five and walking one over six innings against the Royals. He allowed two runs, both on home runs. His fastball touched 97 before settling down into the mid-90s, but his stuff looked crisp. He didn't look very out of place, and didn't look rattled by either of the home runs he allowed. He's not a household name just yet, but he's a very good prospect. New THTer Noah Woodward touched on Webster's movement in his PITCHf/x debut, which is worth a read.

Webster was a late bloomer after being drafted in the 18th round by the Dodgers in 2008, but his recent minor league track record is nothing short of impressive. In 121.2 innings with Double-A Chattanoga in 2011, Webster struck out 117 and walked 57. He had a strong spring this year and continued that with Triple-A Pawtucket, striking out 12 and walking just three in 10 innings before the Red Sox called his number.

Recommendation: He isn't up for good, but the 23-year-old is certainly a name for redraft leagues to file away for later in the summer, when injuries and ineffectiveness of Boston's rotation may give him another, longer shot. Leagues can be won or lost on such foresight (or lack thereof). In dynasty leagues, he's a must-add.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Tuesday, April 23, 2013

The daily grind: 4-23-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:56am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Two snow outs yesterday have turned into two double headers today. Teams with same day moves should adjust accordingly.

Pitcher (to start): Half the guys I tabbed for today have rain in the forecast, and I usually try to avoid those starts.

That leaves Patrick Corbin as my top pick of the day. I own him outright in a couple leagues, including a fairly shallow one.

I like Zach McAllister's skill set and usually expect him to hold his own. There is rain in the forecast for this game, too, but I think they'll get it in without major delays. Still that makes this a second string choice.

Tony Cingrani is exciting, but his ownership is now up to 51 percent.

Kevin Correia still gets to face the Marlins, so he's still a fringe option to start.

Pitcher (bum): Jeff Francis rides over from yesterday to today. Despite the cold, I think it's hard not to expect big offense out of the Braves.

I mentioned Jeff Locke yesterday, but the Phillies offense is pretty lackluster. So while they might put up five runs, don't expect the huge outburst required to win in daily fantasy.

The Brewers, however, have a great offensive blueprint and a favorable match-up against Clayton Richard.

I feel similarly about Jason Vargas' start. Both Vargas and Richard are mediocre lefties who leave little margin for error.

Julio Teheran at Coors Field is not a recipe for good pitching results.

Hitter (power):
There are some great power options including Juan Francisco against Jon Garland, Chris Johnson against Francis, John Mayberry versus Locke, and Matt Joyce against Phil Hughes.

Hitter (speed): This list is shorter. Try Craig Gentry against Vargas.

If you want to roll the dice, I'd hazard a guess that a double header should equal a usually unpredictable start for Eric Young. Or at least two pinch running opportunities.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Tomorrow is not a day to stream starters. Wandy Rodriguez is 59 percent owned, but he's floating around a couple of my leagues. A match-up against the Phillies is favorable.

Ted Lilly is today's dice throw. I wouldn't touch this start, but I don't have too much to point at right now.

Pitcher (bum): There are at least a few exploitable match-ups that stand out.

Edinson Volquez against the Brewers stands out the most given his early season command issues.

Luis Mendoza is the kind of mediocre pitcher the Tigers feast upon.

The Orioles, Rockies, and Angels are currently starting TBA and he usually isn't very good. I suspect the Rockies will be using Drew Pomeranz here, and he might actually be worth streaming.

Hitter (power): I like when Chris Carter gets the platoon advantage, like when he faces Joe Saunders.

Jonny Gomes gets to face Brett Anderson so long as Anderson's sprained ankle doesn't intervene.

Hold Mayberry; he gets another lefty tomorrow.

Hitter (speed): Andy Dirks has struggled early this season, but his match-up for tomorrow is good. He's not really a stolen base threat, but he's probably more likely to steal than to hit a home run.

Will Venable's match-up with Marco Estrada isn't great, but I think that's where you need to be chasing steals tomorrow if you need them.

Noteworthy news

Jason Heyward had surgery to remove his appendix, so he'll be out for a bit. Evan Gattis could see a couple of extra starts in the outfield as a result.

The Biogenesis scandal now includes Robinson Cano's name, which couldn't come at a more inopportune time for him. I think every fantasy owner is terrified that their star player could disappear for 50 games, since several big names remain under investigation.

Weather watch

The Rockies' doubleheader will be cold—right around freezing. It appears rain will affect games played in Detroit, Boston and Chicago. The forecast for the White Sox appears to be the least likely to result in delays or postponement.

Good enough for me

Felix Doubront weaved in and out of traffic yesterday and survived his outing with a win.

Today, I'll briefly cover Pat Corbin, whom I've liked since he arrived on the scene last season.

Corbin has a reliable four-pitch mix—two fastballs, a slider, and a change-up—and he's throwing about one mph harder this season. Over time, I would expect a very slight improvement in strikeout rate to about 7.5 K/9 with about a 3.0 BB/9. He generates a reasonable amount of ground balls, which is important for a pitcher in Arizona.

Over the course of a full season, I expect an ERA around 4.00. Carefully managed, especially to avoid starts at Coors Field and bad match-ups at home, Corbin can probably exceed that expectation and provide average fantasy stats for free.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Chris Sale, before and after 75 pitches

Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:08am

Chris Sale is a fun pitcher to watch. He throws three solid pitches and has a plus fastball. He is one of those oddly proportioned left-handed pitchers, and he made the transition from reliever to starter look easy. As is not the case with most who share his physique, we currently have the luxury of seeing him pitch more than one or two hitters per outing.

Sale has been great as a starter, and has since silenced most of those who criticized his move from the bullpen. Sale’s transition to his current role was was aided by the fact that he already was already able to throw three pitches at the major league level as a reliever.

While he has been able to make it work as a starter without relying so heavily on his fastball, some may still believe that he doesn’t have the ability to go deep into games. Most of the damage done against Sale comes after he crosses the 50-75 pitch mark. Through his four starts so far in 2013, the trend has persisted. If you look at the table below (courtesy of Baseball Reference), you’ll notice this trend.

Sale strikes out more hitters and exhibits slightly better control as the game progresses, and his peripheral skills suggest that he should actually be a better pitcher after 50 pitches. His opponent OPS suggests otherwise, though.

The White Sox decided not to impose an innings cap on Sale in 2012, and manager Robin Ventura frequently allowed him to throw more than 100 pitches in a start. It is possible that White Sox know something that we don’t, because it doesn’t appear that Ventura has any plans to treat his ace differently in the near future. If we look at Sale’s mechanics over the course of a start, we might be able to better understand why the White Sox are so comfortable letting him pitch deep into games.

I’ll start with Sale’s release point. On the surface, his delivery looks pretty erratic. He slings the ball from a somewhat unconventional three-quarter arm slot, and some were worried about his ability to repeat this delivery as a starter. He says that he has adjusted his delivery in an effort to reduce the probability of injury. Sale throws across his body, and he adjusted the location of his landing foot by “three or four inches.”

In the graph below, I break down Sale’s release point by pitch count. I lumped his fastballs together and set other pitches aside to isolate the possible effect of fatigue on his release point. To be clear, this graph represents Sale’s four-seam and his two-seam fastball. The horizontal and vertical lines represent the average release point for each pitch count level.

It appears that Sale’s release point might actually be pretty consistent over the course of a start. A better model for consistency, however, is release point variance. In graphical terms, variance essentially measures the distance between the different points on the graph. The chart below compares variance levels across pitch count for Sale.

I did this same type of analysis last year on Daniel Bard’s stint as a starter, and found that his release point variance increased significantly as he approached 90 pitches. For comparison, I’ve also thrown up a chart of Bard’s horizontal release point variance last year. My sample size for Bard is much smaller than it is for Sale, and this explains part of the difference in baseline variance between the two (because variance decreases as the number of observations in sample increases).

Inconsistency in Sale’s horizontal release point over a start doesn’t increase quite as much as Bard’s does, but it is around 25 percent higher after 90 pitches. This might concern those banking on Sale to remain healthy and log 200+ innings this year and beyond. Bard's release point variance jumped more than 45 percent as he approached 90 pitches, and we all know what happened to him.

What about movement?

The good news for Sale is that his “stuff” doesn’t worsen as he throws more pitches. The graphs below demonstrate that Sale is just about as effective on the 90th pitch he throws as he is on the first. Horizontal and vertical movement is plotted on each axis, and the lines represent averages for the different pitch count groups.

I left the change-up chart out of this article, because he is consistent in his release point for that pitch. The slider becomes a little flatter (good sliders have little horizontal movement), but not by much. The difference in movement between a Sale slider after one pitch and a slider he throws after 100+ pitches is only about an inch horizontally.

So what are we to do with this information on Sale’s response to fatigue? On the one hand, Sale’s effectiveness doesn’t seem to be affected by pitch count. Coaches monitoring Sale throughout a start are likely making the correct move in leaving him out there for the long haul often. The disproportionate number of runs and extra base hits coming in the late innings are probably just a result of randomness. Sale suffers from a high late-inning BABIP, and that would help explain why it looks like he struggles as he tires.

On the other hand, release point variance can increase the likelihood of injury. In 2011, Kyle Boddy determined that pitchers with higher vertical release point variance levels suffered from elbow injuries more often than those with lower variance levels. I don’t have any evidence to back this up, but I’d guess that varied release points cause even more damage when an arm is fatigued. Boddy didn’t find any issues with horizontal release point variance, though, and that was where we saw changes for Sale.

If Sale’s vertical release point starts to move around, I’d hit the panic button. But for now, I don’t see any reason to worry about Sale’s ability to pitch deep into games. Rest easy, South Siders.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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The Verdict: handling constructive abandonment

Posted by Michael Stein at 3:01am

Before we get into the substance of the article, I would like to clarify one thing about the title. This article is NOT about the legal term of art known as "constructive abandonment" which applies in family law where one spouse refuses to engage in sexual relations with the other spouse for at least one year. Perhaps that scenario applies to some people because of the amount of time we spend on our fantasy baseball teams, but that is a topic for another day. Rather, I am using the term constructive abandonment in the context of a fantasy baseball league member and his participation.

It is every fantasy player's responsibility to set rosters and lineups in a timely manner and comport with the league's permissible minimum and maximum requirements. In this age of technology, people can access their teams and make necessary maneuvers from almost anywhere in the world using the Internet, smartphones, and tablets. Granted, there are extenuating circumstances that would excuse someone from being able to do so. Without getting into specifics, let's just say that some things in life are more important than fantasy baseball (as hard as that is to admit). Typically the commissioner and fellow league members would understand such a situation and extend leniency.

Unfortunately, many leagues are littered with individuals who do not have valid excuses for missing deadlines. Such recalcitrant owners are not always easy to spot, especially in leagues that are composed of friends, family members, colleagues, and acquaintances. The dilemma for commissioners is determining when enough is enough and then deciding how to handle a situation when a league member fails to submit a legal lineup so often that it undermines the integrity of the league.

In most fantasy baseball platforms, commissioners can select an automatic disqualification or penalty for teams that have illegal or incomplete rosters and lineups. This is more applicable for head to head leagues, where wins and losses are determined on a weekly or periodic basis. Electing such a setting clearly places all league members on notice that there are penalties in place for such actions. It is advisable to include such a procedure within a league's constitution (if one exists) or at least in writing to the entire league before the season begins.

Before we get into what solutions can be offered, we must discuss the unenviable task that commissioners face when there are shades of gray in determining whether to take action. As stated before, sometimes life gets in the way of fantasy baseball. That is understandable. There are also instances where someone will have the courtesy to provide advance notice of an issue, or at least acknowledge such malfeasance as soon as practicable afterwards. This is excusable as well. But when a league member needs to be reminded or encouraged to set his lineup or bring his roster in conformity with the rules, then we may have a problem.

Generally, everyone should be entitled to one mulligan. People aren't perfect and sometimes we forget to take care of all of our responsibilities, including setting a fantasy baseball lineup. On the first occasion of malfeasance, the commissioner should issue a warning to the offending league member. If it happens a second time, the commissioner must heighten the scrutiny and publicly announce that the offending league member is risking expulsion or some other form of serious penalty for the next offense. If it happens a third time, the commissioner should take swift and decisive action. Keep in mind, the commissioner would be well within his discretion to act this decisively on a first or second offense if he is given the authority within the league's rules or if he lays out his intentions from the outset.

If expulsion is the decided course of action, the commissioner must decide how to proceed. First of all, the offending league member should not be reimbursed his entry fee or any other fees that have been paid. Unless something tragic happened and a person had to pull out of the league on his own accord, refunds are not part of the game. The commissioner can then seek to replace that team with a new owner and proceed from that point on in the season.

Another option could be to retroactively change the league schedule and set a "bye" in lieu of the expelled team. This would place everyone else on even ground in terms of when he was the opponent. As for that team's roster, those players could be released into the free agent pool or there could be a redraft of those players based on various criteria such as reverse order of standings or a random lottery. That would be up to the commissioner or set to a league vote.

There is not one foolproof way to prevent something like this, nor is there one perfect method in handling such a situation. But it is something that all leagues should be cognizant of because it can happen to anyone. The most important thing to remember is that the integrity of the league must be maintained in the best interests to all participating teams. Each instance of a recalcitrant league member would need to be evaluated on a case by case basis, but these are some general guidelines you can refer to if this situation presents itself in your league.

The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.

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Monday, April 22, 2013

The daily grind: 4-22-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:38am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The daily picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

Pitcher (to start): One of the fun things about doing this column for the second year is seeing the players who became popular with an offseason of analysis. Thus, when I see A.J. Griffin, Mike Minor and Wade Miley starting on the same day, I get temporarily excited until I realize I can no longer recommend them.

However, I can still recommend Felix Doubront, who also happens to be the second best Felix today. More on Doubront below in a new section.

I came close to picking up Kevin Correia several times yesterday, but I could never quite get over the terribly low strikeout totals. If I can't start him against the Marlins, then I can't start him against anybody, but maybe you are ballsier.

I'm quite confident in J.A. Happ this season as a back-of-the-fantasy-rotation workhorse. So far, the results have been mixed, and a match-up against the Orioles qualifies as neutral.

If you like throwing dice, Jonathan Pettibone starts for the Phillies today. In two starts, he's been terrible in Triple-A this year, but he profiles as a real life, mid-rotation innings eater.

Pitcher (bum): Pettibone could also be a bum today. That's how it is with pure gambles.

Dan Haren has been treated like a scrub this season and I think the Cardinals will continue that trend.

Chris Tillman made strides in the second half last season, but I didn't see the same guy when I watched his last start. He's struggling to get whiffs despite a high strikeout rate. The Jays have several all-or-nothing type hitters who could make this start look good or bad for Tillman.

Jeff Francis is easy to pick upon. For one, the Braves seem infatuated with the long ball. For two, the game is at Coors Field. Unfortunately, there is some of that pesky white stuff in the forecast (snow if that's not clear).

Hitter (power): I discovered today that Garrett Jones is only 33 percent owned. He should make for a good gamble on power today, as should teammate Travis Snider.

My fingers are crossed that Matt Adams finds his way into this match-up, but you'll have to monitor the situation later in the day.

Nate Freiman versus Doubront will produce some true outcomes. It's just a question of which ones.

Chris Johnson is somehow 50 percent owned, which I can only assume is a slow response to Freddie Freeman's reactivation. A match-up against Francis, if they play, is quite great.

Hitter (speed):
Nate Schierholtz will get the chance to continue being the Cubs' best hitter.

Leonys Martin is starting to look a little better.

I'll also note Gerardo Parra against Ryan Vogelsong.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Bartolo Colon is doing his usual fly-under-the-radar thing.

I think Wade Davis is going to give us a bumpy ride, but he's been a solid fantasy earner in the past and could have even learned a few things from his bullpen stint.

Tony Cingrani is the guy I was most excited to recommend, until I saw he's 49 percent owned. Whoops, too late.

Meanwhile, Zach McAllister is available almost everywhere.

I have to give one more.Patrick Corbinhas the Giants at AT&T tomorrow.

Pitcher (bum): I'm not a huge fan of Jeff Locke.

I expect the Brewers to get to Clayton Richard.

Similarly, I don't think Jason Vargas against the Rangers is favorable for Vargas.

Given Julio Teheran's early season struggles, the thin Colorado air, and the Rockies' solid lineup, I do not expect tomorrow to be the day Teheran puts everything together. If you own him, sit him.

Hitter (power): John Mayberry Jr. has been hot early and has the platoon advantage.

I think Juan Francisco will be taking his usual hacks against Jon Garland tomorrow.

A Phil Hughes start is an opportunity to use Matt Joyce.

Seth Smith and Brandon Moss should enjoy Alfredo Aceves.

Hitter (speed): Craig Gentry will start against the lefty.

Noteworthy news

Freddie Freeman is supposedly returning to action today which means fewer reps for Juan Francisco and Chris Johnson.

Early season favorite Jhoulys Chacin is sidelined with an oblique injury. Future fantasy regular Drew Pomeranz will likely take his place, but may not be ready for widespread ownership.

Weather watch

Watch out for more rain and snow in Colorado along with the cold temperatures that go with that forecast.

There is also snow in the forecast in Minnesota, which gives me another opportunity to be baffled by Target Field's lack of retractable dome.

Good enough for me

I try to make a note when a player I recommend is also a player I (plan to) use. Now I will occasionally highlight such players in this section.

Felix Doubront would be good enough for me, if he were available in any of my leagues. I find it interesting when players have a low ownership rate like Doubront's 16 percent, yet aren't available in my leagues.

From the early small sample results, we see a few interesting trends. His 4.50 ERA does not jump off the spreadsheet, but a .429 BABIP and 10.3 percent swinging strike rate (average is 9.2 percent) have me intrigued about his long term prospects.

When I watch Doubront, I see a pitcher who has a slight problem with home runs and can be a bit too hitable at times. So a BABIP around .325 might be expected (indeed, ZiPS agrees). Still, that translates to an expectation of a low fours ERA which should come with a fistful of wins and strong strike out rate. Unfortunately, his WHIP may ultimately be unpleasant as well.

His peripherals also make him a candidate to take a large leap forward, since a small refinement in his command could result in league average rates in hits and home runs allowed. If that were to happen, a mid-threes ERA would be expected.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 4, Vol. I

Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:06am

Welcome to Week 4, fellow fantasy travelers. Since we last surveyed the waiver wire landscape, Jake Westbrook's two-start Week 3 was ruined by rain, though he was poised to take the ball on Sunday night when this column was sent upstairs to the editors. Aside from his shortstop role, Marwin Gonzalez has done little to distinguish himself as a useful fantasy bat, though owners who rolled the dice on Andrew Bailey in Week 3 were rewarded with three saves.

Jose Quintana | Chicago White Sox | SP | 17 percent Yahoo ownership; 7 percent ESPN; 60 percent CBS
YTD: 17.2 IP, 2.68 FIP, 8.66 K/9, 2.04 BB/9
Oliver: 121 IP, 3.83 FIP, 6.10 K/9, 3.35 BB/9

Why don’t people like Quintana? Is it something about the way he looks? Did he choose not to stand during a rendition of God Bless America at some point in his career? Or is he just a guy whose name remains under the radar despite a solid rotation spot on a team that should compete for the playoffs this year?

Quintana, 24, put together a decent rookie season last year, going 6-6 with a 4.23 FIP and a 5.35 K/9 in 25 games (22 starts). But he posted a solid 47-percent groundball rate and managed a very fine 2.77 BB/9 despite unremarkable stuff and no help from his BABIP and HR/FB rate.

About those strikeouts: His 2012 rate is not good, to be sure, but he posted an excellent whiff rate in 300 minor league innings, and as he develops, I don’t think a 7.0 K/9 is an unreasonable expectation. His walk rate is no joke either, as evidenced by an above average F-Strike% rate.

Yeah, he’s gotten a bit pushed around in ~~Cell Phone Park~~ U.S. Cellular Field, which is not all that surprising, although we’re talking about 12 starts, a sample size that’s not beyond correction. As for 2013, so far, so good: 1-0 in three starts with a 2.74 FIP (3.57 xFIP) and an 8.66 K/9.

So let’s review. His strikeouts are going to improve over last year, he won’t walk too many players, and his team could very well win 90 games, a decent amount of which figure to belong to Quintana. With two starts lined up this week against the Indians and the punchless Rays, what's not to like?

Recommendation: Definitely worth a flier in standard mixed leagues.

Didi Gregorius | Arizona Diamondbacks | SS | 5 percent Yahoo ownership; 2.2 percent ESPN; 13 percent CBS
YTD: 30 PA, .357/.357/.500 with 1 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 563 PA, .249/.294/.351 with 6 HR and 10 SB

When you hit a home run in your first at-bat of the season, people tend to take notice, especially when you’re a shortstop. Throw in the prospect of some regular playing time, and you might find yourself some friends among the fantasy community.

A part of the three-team offseason trade that sent Trevor Bauer to the Indians, Gregorius, 23, opened the season on the disabled list with a strained right elbow but played well in his Triple-A rehab stint and has improved over the course of his young career from his time as an all-glove, no-hit infielder. But he’s still developing at the plate, and his overall minor league numbers (.267/.319/.375) more accurately represent a man who’s here for his glove, not his stick.

There’s also the matter of playing time. I would expect Gregorius to pick up some steady at-bats going forward, though the left-handed hitter sat on Saturday against the Rockies’ southpaw Jorge de la Rosa, when Cliff Pennington picked up the start. Pennington, whose bat was producing an ice-cold .502 OPS entering Sunday’s action, will also play second base during Aaron Hill’s prolonged absence, though Martin Prado also figures to pick up a few at-bats at the keystone over the next month or so.

I like Gregorius’ athleticism and his prospects as a major-leaguer, but he’s still raw and very much unproven at the plate. Oliver’s conservative prediction seems appropriate for this rookie, and I’ll leave him alone in mixed leagues for the time being.

Recommendation: NL-only league material.

Daniel Nava | Boston Red Sox | OF | 18 percent Yahoo ownership; 32 percent ESPN; 37 percent CBS
YTD: 50 PA, .342/.460/.684 with 4 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 436 PA, .250/.340/.404 with 13 HR and 5 SB

Red Sox Nation turned its lonely eyes to Nava in the eighth inning of Saturday’s emotional game against the Royals, when he smashed a Kelvin Herrera fastball for a game-winning three-run homer. For the 30-year-old left-fielder, the dinger was just the latest highlight in what’s been a fast start to 2013, as he looks to put together the first full-time season of his career.

It isn’t hard to like Nava, who, despite so far not having been able to translate a successful minor league career into major league numbers, has still produced a quality walk rate and an ability to make contact at the big league level. The .342 average he flashed entering Sunday’s game was backed by a perfectly reasonable .310 BABIP and 21.2 percent line drive rate, and while I wouldn’t expect the home run production to continue; 15 to 18 over the course of a full season sounds about right.

Playing-time wise, the switch-hitter’s career OPS against righties is about 130 points higher than against southpaws, so he might be a platoon option on weeks when Jonny Gomes picks up some starts in left field.

But David Ortiz is back in the middle of the Red Sox lineup and Jackie Bradley Jr. has been sent down to the farm, so it’s clearly Nava’s job to lose so long as he produces. With fine peripheral numbers, a decent upside and seven home games in Week 4 against the Astros and A’s, Nava probably is worth rostering in more than a few mixed leagues as long as he’s hot.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in deeper mixed leagues.

Aaron Hicks | Minnesota Twins | OF | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 1 percent ESPN; 23 percent CBS
YTD: 56 PA, .042/.179/.042 with 0 HR and 1 SB
Oliver: n/a

By now, serious fantasy owners the nation over know Hicks has been a huge bust to start the year, a fraud who promised on-base ability and stolen base help only to produce absolutely nothing to the point of being dropped like a bad habit in countless leagues.

But if you believe there’s still hope for Hicks—the season did, after all, just celebrate its three-week anniversary last night—then consider the fact that the 23-year-old has been walking quite a bit over the past week, had a RBI and a stolen base yesterday and remains the team’s only center fielder so long as Darin Mastroianni’s foot injury keeps him out of the lineup.

It’s perfectly reasonable to cut Hicks in a shallow league where every roster position is precious. But I like Hicks and think he’s capable of producing in fantasy as soon as this year, provided he makes more contact and becomes more aggressive at the plate. Yes, with these numbers, he only has so long until he’s sent down to Triple-A to get things together, but I’d be willing to give him at least another week or so before I start cutting bait on this guy.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in deeper mixed leagues so long as he gets on base.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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The Hot Seat

Posted by Scott Strandberg at 3:03am

Throughout the season, I will be examining struggling players and the value of their prospective replacements. Even this early in the 2013 season, there are already plenty of situations worth monitoring. It is important not to overreact to small samples, but they should not be completely ignored, either, especially if a club has a viable replacement option. After all, it appears that Cliff Pennington has lost his starting shortstop job to Didi Gregorius, and we’re just 15 games into the season.

Jesus Montero

To begin, let’s take a look at Seattle’s catching quandary. Everyone knew Montero would struggle defensively this season, but few expected him be a liability with a bat in his hands. His first full major league season (.260/.298/.386) was nothing to write home about, but it was enough to make fantasy owners excited about his prospects for 2013, especially with the walls moving in at Safeco and the Mariners’ improved lineup.

Unfortunately, the 23-year-old former top prospect is off to a putrid start (.209/.227/.233), and he’s already losing playing time to career journeyman Kelly Shoppach.

Why would a club like Seattle put Montero, a former consensus Top-10 prospect, in a timeshare with Shoppach less than a month into his second full major league season? After all, they’ve put up with almost three seasons of Justin Smoak being completely terrible at baseball. Why are they so impatient with Montero?

There are two crucial differences between Smoak and Montero’s situations. For starters, Smoak, while not a plus defender by any stretch, is a league-average defensive first baseman. It’s much easier to keep that on the field than a poor defensive catcher. Secondly, and much more importantly, is that Seattle really hasn’t had any options to replace Smoak.

The Mariners just don’t have any highly touted corner infielders in their system, and they appear to be sticking to their plan to use Kendrys Morales exclusively as a designated hitter (he’s played in the field once this year), which leaves them stuck with Smoak yet again. Sure, they could move Michael Morse to first, but the result of that would be increased playing time for Raul Ibanez and Jason Bay, which is about as appetizing a proposition as eating moldy bread.

In Montero’s case, however, the future nearly has arrived in the form of Mike Zunino, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2012 draft who tore his way through Low-A and Double-A last season to the tune of .360/.447/.689 in 44 games. So far this season at Triple-A Tacoma, Zunino has eight extra-base hits, including four homers, in 51 plate appearances.

Montero has one extra-base hit, a double, in 44 plate appearances. These are miniscule samples, but one thing is clear: Zunino is hot, Montero is not. One other thing that is clear: Zunino already is a better defensive catcher than Montero. He still needs work on his receiving skills, but he has a good arm, throwing out 39 percent of would-be base-stealers in the minors, and is more mobile and athletic than Montero.

Seattle likely will roll out the combo of Montero and Shoppach for a while longer, but Zunino’s going to be in the majors sooner rather than later. From a fantasy perspective, there’s plenty to like here. The 22-year-old could probably hit .260 with 15 homers, which just so happens to be the exact same thing Montero did last year in his age-22 season.

Zunino, however, won’t be nearly as much of a defensive liability and has better on-base skills. Any fantasy owner in a keeper league or with a deep bench absolutely is advised to go ahead and stash Zunino right now.

It should be noted that this isn’t to say that the Mariners should (or will) by any means give up on Montero, but I wouldn’t blame fantasy owners for jumping ship. It’s hard to envision him getting close to the 553 plate appearances he had last year.

Zunino likely will be Seattle’s starting catcher by year’s end, and they already have Morales as the everyday designated hitter. Maybe they should have Montero start taking some grounders at first base to see if he could solve the aforementioned Smoak problem.

Yunel Escobar

Escobar has spent his brief tenure with the Rays looking like a man terrified of reaching base, resulting in a .115/.207/.154 line and twice as many strikeouts (12) as hits (6). There’s not much reason for Tampa to put up with his complete lack of production for long, especially with Hak-Ju Lee looking like he’s ready for the majors. Lee is considered one of the top defensive shortstop prospects in the game, and he’s showing signs of development at the plate, as well.

After scuffling to a .190/.272/.310 line in a 24-game stint in Double-A in 2011, Lee improved to .261/.336/.360 in 2012. This year, he is hitting everything in sight; through 55 plate appearances with Triple-A Durham, he’s hitting .419/.537/.605, with six steals and more walks (11) than strikeouts (9).

Lee probably would struggle to hit .250 in the majors right now, and he has almost zero home run power, but his ability to draw walks should give him plenty of opportunities to steal bases. The 22-year-old has stolen at least 32 bases in each of his three full minor-league seasons and has hit at least ten triples each year, as well. His combination of speed and on-base ability make him an intriguing AL-only option if, or when, he arrives in Tampa.

Rick Ankiel

What the heck is Rick Ankiel doing here? Isn’t this a fantasy column? Yes, it is, and judging by the fact that Ankiel’s ownership percentage is three percent or lower on Yahoo, ESPN and CBS, it is entirely possible that no one reading this article actually owns Ankiel.

He is likely to lose his starting job at some point because there’s really no reason for a team like the Astros to trot out to right field every night a 33-year-old who’s hitting under the Mendoza Line, but nobody’s scrambling to the waiver wire to blow their FAAB budget on Brandon Barnes or Brandon Laird, and the next-best Brandon the Astros have in their system is some guy in High-A. (Yes, I checked.)

The reason Ankiel found his way into this article is because he has the goofiest collection of early-season statistics in baseball. The following are all actual facts about Ankiel’s 2013 season:

He has six hits in 31 plate appearances. Of those six hits, four were home runs.
His Isolated Power is .419
He has recorded 25 outs; 21 of those were strikeouts.
His strikeout rate is 67.7 percent.

That’s right, kids. Ankiel is striking out in more than two-thirds of his at-bats and has a slash line of .194/.194/.613. Sometimes small samples are really fun.

Scott Strandberg lives in Norman, OK with his cat, Bea. He is a musician by night and a writer by day. In addition to writing for THT Fantasy, Scott writes for MLBDepthCharts and co-hosts the MLBDepthCharts Fantasy Podcast. You can follow him on Twitter @scottstrandberg.

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Friday, April 19, 2013

The daily grind: 4-19-13

Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:50am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Jhoulys Chacin has been paying me well in the early going after I picked him up in every league. He's still widely available for his start against the Diamondbacks.

Someone in an even deeper league could probably survive a start with Lucas Harrell against the Indians. I know, that's not exactly a glowing review.

Someone in a shallower league could try Jason Hammel if the Orioles dodge the expected thunderstorms.

Pitcher (bum): Tommy Hanson against the Tigers and Roy Halladay versus the Cardinals are two exploitable match-ups today.

A Brett Myers start is one of the few times I think it's worth loading up on Astros.

Hitter (power): Try those Astros, like Chris Carter, Carlos Pena and Justin Maxwell.

If you prefer non-Astros, Seth Smith against Alex Cobb is a solid match-up.

Hitter (speed): Craig Gentry will get a shot against Joe Saunders.

Andy Dirks is less likely to attempt a steal, but he has a better overall match-up.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Bronson Arroyo draws the Marlins, which is pretty much the only time I consider Arroyo a favorable addition.

Wei-Yin Chen's ownership has plummeted to 33 percent. He'll face the Dodgers tomorrow.

Scott Kazmir's return to the majors includes the strikeout-hungry Astros.

Pitcher (bum): Ervin Santana has looked better this season, but he's still showing signs of being homer prone, which leads me to expect the Red Sox to post some crooked numbers.

Scott Diamond strikes me as just a little too hittable to hold down a major league job. The White Sox should benefit.

Same goes for Jeremy Hefner. I expect the Nationals to feast.

Hitter (power): Dayan Viciedo is 34 percent owned and has the platoon advantage against Diamond.

Or try Cody Ross against Jorge de la Rosa.

I recommended Kazmir, but I'm not all-in on him. Try Chris Carter for long balls.

Hitter (speed): To my shock, Denard Span is only 26 percent owned. This is a guy who's going to steal 20-30 bags, post a respectable average and easily score over 100 runs. Pick him up.

David Murphy against Brandon Maurer could produce in all categories.

Noteworthy news

Derek Jeter's out forever now (until at least the All-Star break), but Didi Gregorius had his debut yesterday. He won't fill the expected production of Jeter, but he's available and should get plenty of reps.

Weather watch

Watch out for thunderstorms in the northeast. Teams that could be affected include the Dodgers, Orioles, Nationals, Mets, Cardinals and Phillies.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol III
Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:28am

It's been a minute or two since we checked in on some of our recent waiver wire finds, and that sounds like a fun thing to do (unless you've been touting Brandon Maurer all season) so let's get right to it.

Andrew Bailey - My waiver wire amigo Karl de Vries highlighted Bailey on Monday as a player worth adding, particularly in the short term. Ask and you shall receive. Bailey earned his first save of the year Wednesday, and looked strong doing it, striking out a pair in the process. After the game Red Sox manager John Farrell said Joel Hanrahan will not necessarily get his job back when he returns from his hamstring injury. Bailey remains an excellent addition in all leagues, at least for now, and possibly long-term. He's still owned less than Steve Cishek and Jim Henderson in CBS leagues, and that should not be the case.

Welington Castillo - I spoke highly of the Cubs' catcher Wednesday and he responded Thursday by putting together a four-hit game against the Rangers. You're welcome, guys. No big deal.

John Jaso and Derek Norris - In situation where lineups need to be monitored, it's interesting that the Athletics have been using both Jaso and Norris lately, with Norris behind the dish and Jaso at DH. If they're both in the lineup, they're both useful. Of course, doubling them up is mostly because of injuries, so that's something to be aware of.

Today, we'll look at a pair of Braves third basemen.

Juan Francisco | 3B | Atlanta Braves | Yahoo!: 11 percent ownership; ESPN: 6.7 percent; CBS: 17 percent
YTD: .333/.366/.564
ZiPS updated projection: .266/.300/.476

Chris Johnson | 3B | Atlanta Braves | Yahoo!: 26 percent ownership; ESPN: 30.1 percent; CBS: 32 percent
YTD: .409/.435/.545
ZiPS updated projection: .275/.315/.426

As the saying goes, never trust an hombre with two first nombres. Or something.

I disagree, at least when it comes to this particular Braves third baseman. Francisco was a favorite sleeper of mine back in 2011, when he made the club out of spring training as the apparent backup to what was left of Scott Rolen. He only managed to play 31 games with the Reds, though, posting a .741 OPS. Last year he played in 93 games, but put up another sub-.300 OBP and struck out in 34.1 percent of his at-bats. While neither of those seasons could be considered much of a success, Francisco did flash very good power, ISOing .194 and .198 with the Reds and Braves, respectively.

The Braves' third base gig was up for grabs this season for the first time in roughly 50 years (thanks Larry!), and Francisco found himself in a competition (or platoon) with Chris Johnson for the honor of replacing Chipper Jones. It's worked out well so far for Atlanta, as both Francisco and Johnson have been crushing it.

Before the season, as Brad Johnson wrote, it seemed likely Francisco would get the majority of starts against right-handed pitchers, and Johnson would see playing time against lefties. That's how it has played out, for the most part, but the fact that Francisco started Thursday night against lefty Jeff Locke is interesting and might signal a change on the horizon. It's interesting, as well, that Francisco has started each of the Braves' past four games against right-handed pitchers.

My money is on Francisco, anyway, because there are a slew of positive things happening for him right now:

1. His swinging strike rate is down from a crazy 16.9 percent to a much more palatable 10.5 percent so far this season.
2. He's swinging at way fewer pitches outside the zone right now (28.9 percent, compared to levels over 40 percent the two prior seasons).
3. He has an overly high HR/FB rate of 37.5 percent, but even with an expected drop there, he has more power than Johnson ever did.
4. A huge portion of Johnson's great numbers derive from his .458 BABIP, which will never last. Francisco's .385 mark is also high, but the fall won't be as rough for him.
5. Francisco has played only four games against lefties, but putting that aside for a moment, it seems very likely he will continue to get every start against right-handed pitchers if he's healthy. That makes him a dependable platoon option, one who is freely available, and he can be an elite power option when in the lineup.

It's obviously still early in the season, but these are positive trends. If Francisco can keep these things going while seeing more at-bats against southpaws, he's got big upside.

For Johnson, that's not really the case. He has less power (.154 ISO vs. Francisco's .188, over their major league careers), walks slightly less (and Francisco is no walk artist himself) but manages to strike out less (who doesn't?). He's also two years older.

Recommendation: There's no reason Johnson should be owned twice as much as Francisco across the board. In fact, it should probably be the other way around, since Francisco stands to see a majority of the starts and has higher upside. He's an intriguing add in NL-only leagues, a capable injury fill-in for mixed leaguers, and someone to keep an eye on. If he starts playing more against lefties, and is holding his own against them (or just can avoid looking awful), he has a chance to become someone worth rostering in a mixed league starting lineup. It's an outside chance, but he's a guy I like, and a boy can dream, right?

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Thursday, April 18, 2013

The daily grind: 4-18-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:46am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Today I have recommendations for four pitchers who I generally own outright.

I've been impressed with Patrick Corbin in the early going. He's not a fantasy standout, but he can eat innings with acceptable ratios.

Zach McAllister has some growth to do before he should be rostered outright, but I am streaming him in a league today based on his command and control profile.

Julio Teheran has been shaky thus far, especially with the long ball. I expect to see some of the fire that made him a trendy pick.

Tony Cingrani has his first start, which should be the most interesting outing of the night.

Pitcher (bum): I managed to justify a selection of Cole Hamels yesterday. In short, I don't think his stuff is quite as sharp as it usually is and it's hurting his fastball.

The Braves were finally quiet yesterday but they'll look to break out the whooping sticks against Jeff Locke.

Phil Hughes is my top target for a beating today. I incorrectly pointed at the Indians, but it's the Diamondbacks who will benefit from the match-up.

Hitter (power): Cody Ross was activated a few days ago and has so far been a quiet 4-for-12.

The Cardinals are trying to work Matt Adams into the lineup as often as they can. If he gets the start against Hamels, he's a good power threat.

Hitter (speed): Gerardo Parra should like that Hughes match-up.

Gregor Blanco is a pure steals option who offers very little else.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jhoulys Chacin had his start pushed back to Friday.

There are a lot of other great pitchers going today, but everyone except Jason Hammel (47 percent owned) is above the 50 percent threshold. Hammel starts against the Dodgers if he's available in your league.

Lucas Harrell is a stretch play, I think he's a good bet to earn a win, but I wouldn't expect great numbers.

Pitcher (bum): Tommy Hanson and Roy Halladay are today's veteran contingent of exploitable pitchers. Halladay faces the Cardinals while Hanson draws the Tigers.

Wandy Rodriguez is a solid pitcher and could even appear in the "pitcher to start" section. The Braves lineup is simply too dangerous to bet against right now.

Hitters against Joe Saunders have not been reaping rewards, but I'm going to recommend the Rangers anyway.

Brett Myers against the Astros could be a rare power outburst in Houston.

Myers has been homer happy, which causes me to really like the match-up for Chris Carter, Carlos Pena, Justin Maxwell and Brett Wallace.

Hitter (power): Seth Smith will be in against Alex Cobb.

Hitter (speed): Jon Jay is another one of those guys who I have filed under speed because he doesn't hit for much power. He's not a steals threat either but his match-up is solid.

Andy Dirks is similar to Jay, although I think he's a little more likely to attempt a theft.

I'm expecting a doubleheader tomorrow for the Rangers and Cubs, which means load up on David Murphy, Craig Gentry and Mitch Moreland (power).

Weather watch

The Rangers and Cubs will battle thunderstorms today, but the rest of the league appears in the clear.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Zack Cozart has been figured out
Posted by Noah Woodward at 3:06am

Two weeks of baseball hardly gives us enough information to evaluate anything. Through two weeks, Coco Crisp and Dexter Fowler are two of the league’s best power hitters. Through two weeks, the Mets look like contenders.

At this point in the season, the average position player has had about 50 plate appearances and the average pitcher has thrown between 15 and 20 innings. It doesn’t make sense to write any player off just yet, but that is exactly what I am about to do.

After a posting a disappointing line in 2012, Cozart has struggled mightily in the early going. He can’t buy a hit, a walk, an extra base hit, or anything other than a ground out. The interesting thing about Cozart’s season thus far is that most of his peripherals haven’t changed much. He is making contact at a rate that is only slightly below what it was in 2012, and he is striking out just as often as he did last year. His plate discipline numbers look roughly the same. I wanted to write an article about Cozart before the season started, and it seems like my window for publishing something on him is getting smaller by the day—Dusty Baker is growing increasingly frustrated with his shortstop.

Cozart caught my attention because he is a dead-pull hitter. Actually, dead-pull might be an understatement. In 2012, roughly two out of every three balls Cozart hit were to left field. In 2013, we have seen more of the same (though we are looking at a small sample size). The power numbers don’t look so great, either. Cozart hit zero opposite field home runs in 2012, and two doubles.

Cozart’s inability to spread the ball across the field in his first full season as a major league ballplayer should have been a major concern for the Reds, as strong push/pull tendencies sometimes indicate that hitter might have a hole in his swing. It should be obvious that Cozart likes pitches on the inner half of the plate. The graph below confirms that most of his extra base hits have come off inside pitches.

Cozart’s inability to hit to right field is concerning, because it is tough to pull outside pitches. Cozart made most of his outs on outside pitches in 2012, giving us further reason to suspect that he can’t go the other way.

One thing that Cozart had going for him in 2012 was his pitch selection. Pitches on the outer half are tough to pull, and Cozart has yet to display any sort of opposite field approach. In 2012, he chose not to swing at pitches that he can’t pull, as the chart below confirms. Cozart’s plate discipline isn’t great, but this approach allowed him to play to his strengths. He avoids swinging at anything on the outer edge of the plate if he can, and he particularly doesn't like anything down and away.

2013: Word gets around

If major league pitchers find out that a hitter has a hole, they’ll attack it. Cozart doesn’t just have a hole, though, as he struggles with pitches on the entire right-hand side of the plate. Pitchers have made adjustments in 2013, so we’d hope that Cozart has improved his opposite field swing as well. How exactly are pitchers approaching Cozart in 2013? Take a look below.

Pitchers are pounding the outside part of the plate in 2013, because they know that Cozart can’t hurt them here. It looks like a season’s worth of evidence has convinced pitching coaches that there is no reason to offer up a pitch that Cozart can pull. I’m sure Reds fans can confirm that Cozart’s at-bats look somewhat repetitive, to say the least.

Cozart is still attempting to take pitches on the outer half of the plate, and he has had to resort to this strategy too often this season. He can’t leave the bat on his shoulders all season, though. Cozart can thrive when he is selective in hitter-friendly counts, but he finds himself in trouble when he is behind.

Cozart is still pulling the ball, but the results aren’t the same as they were in 2012. He hasn’t made as much solid contact on pulled pitches, and is rolling over increasingly often. He ground ball percentage for pulled batted balls is absurdly high (currently 68.4 percent), and he makes an ideal infield shift candidate. His abysmal BABIP should obviously regress and give him some help, but not by much if teams begin to shift against him.

I know that it is still early, but I can imagine a scenario in which Cozart takes a trip to Triple-A Louisville to spend some time developing an opposite-field approach that will work at the major league level. True, the Reds need a starting shortstop now—but with such a glaring weakness in his offensive game, Cozart won’t be able to put up the numbers that he did last year. If Cozart works through this rough period in Cincinnati, he could learn a thing or two from teammate and opposite field hitting guru Joey Votto.

Noah can be reached via email at nowoodward15 AT gmail.com. You can check out his other articles here.

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The Roto Grotto: context is king
Posted by Scott Spratt at 3:04am

I was introduced to fantasy through fantasy football, which typically has scoring analogous to points leagues in fantasy baseball. In points leagues, all points are created equal. If home runs are worth five points and stolen bases are worth five points, then you have no inherent preference for a player you expect to hit 30 home runs and steal 10 bases over one you expect to hit 10 home runs and steal 30 bases.

Because I learned to play in points leagues, I’ve always found rotisserie scoring to be somewhat alien. Baseball already introduced derivative statistics such as batting average and ERA which have components for both successes and opportunities. Those rate stats complicate matters because not all .270 averages are created equal. A .270 average over 600 at-bats can be more or less valuable than a .270 average over 300 at-bats, depending on the collective average of the rest of your starters and the available alternatives in your league.

Rotisserie scoring creates a derivative statistic out of every relevant statistic. A stolen base is not worth a clean five points. In fact, a stolen base is not worth a clean any amount of points because the importance of the next stolen base you receive depends entirely on the context of your placement in your league.

Context is a dirty word to sabermetrics. So much of the important research from projection systems to player value assessment is built upon the removal of context from individual production. Runs batted in remains a universal fantasy statistic, but most fantasy players would cringe if I asserted one player’s superiority in real baseball because of his advantage in RBI totals.

Fantasy players have learned to accept the dissonance that value in real baseball is not the same as value in fantasy baseball, but I continue to see that mentality falter in extreme situations that call for more radical departures in the valuation of players from the value of their brand names.

Here is a simple scenario to illustrate my point. In a hypothetical rotisserie league with one week left in the season, here are the standings of three teams:

Totals Roto Points

R HR RBI Avg. SB R HR RBI Avg. SB Total

Team A 989 245 966 0.272 179 3 3 2 2 3 13

Team B 923 207 1017 0.29 176 2 2 3 3 2 12

Team C 888 190 931 0.268 154 1 1 1 1 1 5

Team A has a one-point lead over Team B, and only the average and stolen base categories are undecided. Team B is secure in first in average and needs only four additional steals to pass Team A. Similarly, Team C can potentially catch Team A in average but is too far behind in the other categories to make up ground in the final week.

With such a simple example, it is clear to see that Team B should trade its players who hit for average to Team C in exchange for players who steal bases. A Billy Butler for Michael Bourn swap would make sense. Butler and Bourn are similarly valued players—they went about two rounds apart in ESPN standard ADP in 2013—who are about as safe as possible in the relevant categories.

But what if Team C does not have Michael Bourn? What if its stolen bases came from players like Alcides Escobar and Cameron Maybin? Given the context, it does not matter at all. Neither Escobar nor Maybin provides the run production that makes Bourn a sixth-rounder, but because runs are already decided, they have no value in context. The only cause for preference of Bourn over either Escobar or Maybin is in the expectation for additional steals.

More than anything else, pride is what holds us back from making similar trades. Draft results are a reflection of expected value of players as of draft day and should be discarded as a rubric as soon as the season starts, but it is difficult to do so. If I drafted Billy Butler in the fourth round, it will feel like a loss to trade him for a player drafted more than a couple of rounds lower, but context can turn a trade of Billy Butler for Alcides Escobar into a fantasy title.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

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Wednesday, April 17, 2013

The daily grind: 4-17-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Bud Norris is off to a hot start but so are the A's. His peripherals suggest an ERA just north of 4.00, but the usual small sample warnings still apply.

J.A. Happ isn't the coolest pitcher to stream, but he's showing the same stuff and repertoire that gave him a 4.01 FIP last year, which is a respectable number for a streaming option.

Pitcher (bum): Alfredo Aceves has a fun name to say, but I'm betting against him pitching deep into the game.

Probable rain has ruined my daily fantasy targets in Tommy Hanson and Vance Worley. They may try to squeeze the game in before heavier rain moves in, which will produce unpredictable results. Expect it to be rain-shortened if it happens at all.

Hitter (power): Chris Heisey has the platoon advantage against John Lannan.

Seth Smith has been doing his thing in the early going and will face Norris today.

Hitter (speed): Try Chris Denorfia against Clayton Kershaw if you're desperate about steals. Now is probably a good time to point out that it's way too early to be this desperate.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Jhoulys Chacin is fairly safe to own outright. He's currently on 33 percent of Yahoo rosters. The key to this recommendation is his ability to keep the walk rate below three BB/9. If it reverts to his 4.11 BB/9 career average, he'll be back to waiver fodder.

I'm a big fan of Patrick Corbin, the only real downside is his home in Arizona.

Julio Teheran is down to 38 percent ownership and I'm still a believer.

Zach McAllister is practically ignored at four percent owned. He's far from a must own, but I see him as a future fantasy core performer—the kind of guy you draft for $5 to eat 200 innings without hurting the bottom line.

Pitcher (bum): This is probably the only time I'll have Cole Hamels in this section of the column. He's been having trouble generating whiffs but no problems allowing long balls. It's probably all small sample noise, but there is a chance that he's having trouble with his change-up. Right now, it's his fastball that's getting mashed, but the success of that pitch is based heavily on the change up.

Jeff Locke is going to have a hell of a time against the Braves.

I'm targeting Indians hitters tomorrow because Phil Hughes has looked a mess this season.

Hitter (power): Think about hanging on to Heisey for that Hamels match-up.

Evan Gattis' ownership keeps climbing but tomorrow's a good time to own him if he's still available.

Hitter (speed):
Think about giving both Michael Brantley and Drew Stubbs a try against Hughes.

Gregor Blanco is another stolen base threat for tomorrow.

Weather watch

The Rockies and Mets will almost certainly be postponed due to heavy snow and sub-20 degree temperatures.

A Midwest storm could rain out the Angels, Twins, Rangers, and Cubs.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol II
Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:14am

The space at the top of this column is generally reserved for something topical about what's happening in baseball at the moment, usually with a handful of my trademark stupid jokes™ peppered in. But I'm not going to do that today, because my city was attacked Monday.

My city? No, that's not good enough. My country. My world. My home. My everything.

Lots of amazing words have been poured across the internet since 2:50 Monday, including here, here, and here. I'm not going to try to compete with those, because I cannot. That last one was written, by the way, by my fiance, a contributing editor at WalkJogRun.net.

I was in New Orleans for my bachelor party all weekend and landed at Logan Airport around 3:30. I instantly saw breaking news alerts about the bombing, and realized the last thing she told me was that she was planning to take photos for WJR at the finish line around 3. That was the single worst moment of my entire life. I came from cloud nine straight into the pit of hell. But I'm one of the lucky ones, because she didn't end up going.

The fact that an 8-year-old boy was not one of the lucky ones is impossible to understand. I also coach youth hockey for a city team, and if Martin Richard had lived four more years there's a solid chance I would have coached against him. I would have given him a high five after and said "Good game." But now I never will, and the reasons for that will never, ever, ever make sense. They cannot possibly.

That's the thing about Boston, though. My story is not unique. Boston is a big city that has the size and feel of a small town. Everyone I know could have been at the race Monday, or has gone in the past, or goes every year, and each of them have been in the very spots where the bombs went off. Many, many times. Everyone I know is similarly flattened by this. Everyone I know feels connected to this, because everyone I know is connected to this.

It's hard to fully express how much the marathon means to the city of Boston, but it's our pride and joy. For a city mostly known as New York's Little Brother, it's one of the few times the entire world focuses its attention on us. You may have heard that Bostonians are fiercely proud people, and you heard right. But they're also fiercely loyal, caring, and fun. The marathon combines all of these attributes on one gloriously unique day every year, the unofficial emergence from what are usually brutal winters.

To have that stomped on, instead of jogged over, is an impossible pill to swallow right now. Except we must, because evil can never be allowed to triumph. The world is a big, beautiful place, but sometimes it is immeasurably bad. Boston's story is sadly not unique either, as you are undoubtedly aware. Tragedies unfold every hour of every day, in every nook and cranny of the world. It's part of the deal we make to live in it.

I'm here to write about fantasy baseball because that's what I do. To unwind. To relax. To escape. To have fun. And that's why I'm here today. I urge each of you Internet People (IPs) to do the same. Play fantasy baseball. Take your kids to the park. High five a stranger. Laugh. Cry. Live.

You can, I promise, and you must.

Welington Castillo | C | Chicago Cubs | Yahoo!: 11 percent ownership; ESPN: 1.2 percent; CBS: 19 percent
YTD: .364/.382/.515 in 35 plate appearances
ZiPS updated projection: .260/.320/.414 in 101 games

Waiver wire: catchers edition.

Castillo has been a favorite of mine for awhile, but particularly for fantasy purposes since last year, when it became very clear there was little chance of Geovany Soto remaining in Chicago after the season, and that the rebuilding Cubs would probably give Castillo a nice, long look rather than sign a veteran to be the starter. This was not quite the popular opinion at the time, however. John Sickels (who I am a fan of) said this prior to last season:

9) Welington Castillo, C, Grade C+: .272/.380/.426 for Triple-A Iowa, .206/.270/.353 in the majors. Still has the good defensive tools, likely have a career as a backup.
It's easy to go back more than a year after someone writes something and nitpick, but this to me seems to be a bit unfair. For starters, the major league stats above consisted of 21 plate appearances in 2010 and 13 in 2011. So, yes, Castillo's numbers in the big leagues were terrible, but they were from way too small a sample to pull any meaning out of.

Sickels' does point out Castillo's defensive prowess (he was named the best defensive catcher in the Cubs' system after 2007 and 2011 by Baseball America, and the best defensive catcher in the Midwest League by BA in 2007), and that's something that matters because it will help keep him in the lineup. Or, at the very least, it won't pull him out of the lineup in favor of a more well-rounded player. But looking at those triple slash lines I'm struck by another one of Castillo's best qualities: his ability to hit for power. The minor league sample Sickels notes (from Triple-A) is hiding a solid ISO of .154. His major league triple slash line shows a similarly strong .147, despite his horrible numbers overall.

Castillo entered this season still fairly unclear about what his role would be, but it is clear now that the starting catcher role in Chicago is his until further notice. Of the last seven games for the Cubs, Castillo has started six. He's due for some stiff regression due to his currently sky-high BABIP of .458, so he's not going to keep hitting anywhere close to .364, but he also has not walked yet this season, and that will likely help balance some of his OBP drop.

Recommendation: Solid add in all leagues, and a great one in NL-only leagues, ones with two catchers, very deep mixed leagues, or dynasty leagues.

Francisco Cervelli | C | New York Yankees | Yahoo!: 3 percent ownership; ESPN: 1 percent; CBS: 17 percent
YTD: .360/.500/.520
ZiPS updated: .250/.338.340

Our friend Mike Axisa featured Cervelli yesterday at Fangraphs, so there's not a ton to add here, other than the fact that I don't quite agree. Axisa notes some of the reasons Cervelli won't keep up his current production, but a couple of others include:

1. His .348 BABIP is going to drop, which will pull his .360 batting average back to Earth.
2. His 37.5 percent line drive rate will drop a ton, like in half, and that will likely drag down his other numbers.

Axisa wouldn't dispute any of that, but he does think that Cervelli can be useful given his solid minor league walk rates (8 percent in the majors and 8.5 percent in Triple-A), and his spot on the Yankees' roster (he's started five of the team's last seven games) means he'll be able to cheaply add some counting stats for fantasy owners. That is true, but what I would ask is this: When Cervelli drops back down to Earth, will his modest walk rate be able to keep him starting this many games? Yes, his competition is Chris Stewart, but it's entirely possible the Yankees add a catcher via trade, or split Cervelli and Stewart more evenly. At that point, he's mostly useless.

Recommendation: I'd avoid him long-term, and would consider using him only in a pinch over the next couple of weeks, where he'll still likely get a number of starts.

John Jaso | C | Oakland Athletics | Yahoo!: 8 percent ownership; ESPN: 1.2 percent; CBS: 24 percent
YTD: .278/.350/.389
ZiPS updated: .262/.361.401

Derek Norris | C | Oakland Athletics | Yahoo!: 1 percent ownership; ESPN: 0.2 percent; CBS: 9 percent
YTD: .417/.516/.583
ZiPS updated: .219/.331/.360

Last week, I mentioned that I like Seth Smith in part because he's a platoon player for which there is no guesswork involved.

Well, that is not the case here. The frustrating part of that is that both Jaso and Norris could be useful fantasy catchers if either could guarantee the lion's share of playing time.

Jaso had the sixth highest wOBA among catchers with at least 300 plate appearances last year, behind just Buster Posey, Carlos Ruiz, Jonathan Lucroy (!), Joe Mauer, and Yadier Molina. That put him ahead of Miguel Montero, Carlos Santana, and Matt Wieters. He posts consistently strong walk rates (above 9 percent in the majors every season since 2010, has decent power (ISOs over .100 during those same seasons) and doesn't strike out a ton (less than 20 percent annually). He's a good, unsexy hitter, who could be a great find. If it weren't for Derek Norris, that is.

It's interesting that ZiPS hates Norris, but that may be reflective of his lack of a track record at the major league level. He has an absurd .500 BABIP right now, so his OPS is going to suffer a massive free fall, and probably soon. Norris can walk, and he can hit, though. As a 22-year-old with the Nationals, the former top prospect walked 18.2 percent of the time, and crushed his way to a .237 ISO in 104 games. The talent is there.

The talent is there for both of these guys, actually, and that is exactly what is causing fantasy owners grief.

Recommendation: Unless you're in a daily league and own both (a situation I am actually in) then it's probably best to avoid until either of these guys separate from each other, or one of them gets hurt. If that happens, they can be nice finds for mixed-league owners.

Note: This column is actually the second Waiver Wire of Week 3. When we changed schedules some nincompoop (me!) labelled the first one wrong. So we're back on track—honest—and Friday's column will correctly be titled: Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol III.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Crisis management
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:01am

A sense of entitlement can often inhibit sensible and timely decision making in fantasy baseball. One of my favorite articles from the THT Fantasy archives covers the problems of the endowment effect. An oversimplification of this phenomenon is that one tends to overvalue what he holds and undervalue what others hold. When dealing with crisis management, anything that prevents you from acting decisively and quickly is especially detrimental. In this column I’ll discuss a few strategic and mental pitfalls to avoid when dealing with a crisis.

The young fantasy season has already yielded some injuries that would reach the level of “crisis” for owners. From an owner’s perspective, perhaps the most detrimental injury thus far has been that of Jose Reyes. Not only is Reyes one of the most valuable commodities in the fantasy universe, but he also plays a shallow position and was likely relied upon by his owners to carry a tremendous load in the stolen base category. A player of his nature is among the most irreplaceable assets. Still, Reyes owners are now forced to make lemonade.

The standard endowment effect may even be enhanced in the Reyes situation. In addition to glorifying Reyes and shortchanging other options, an owner may be tempted to anchor his expectations for a replacement to the elite level player he had in the first place. This is a problematic thought to which one must not succumb—you are not entitled to a new superstar simply because you lost one. Following such faulty logic will hurt you in two ways.

It is important to realize that one must, in the immortal words of John Wooden, be quick, but don’t hurry. If you limit yourself to having to find ways to get a Troy Tulowitzki or Starlin Castro to fill that spot, you drastically foreclose your options and lengthen the amount of time it will require to work a deal—presuming you are even able to do so.

The best thing to do is to take a solid player at your deepest position and look to trade him for a solid shortstop. That’s the first manifestation of faulty thinking in a crisis—the longer it takes to act, the longer the crisis will severely impact operations. Acting quickly means minimizing the amount of time you will bear a replacement level player in your active roster. It is also best if you can find a player who approximates the skill set of Reyes—maybe somebody like Elvis Andrus.

This brings me to the other pitfall of miring oneself in the pursuit of another superstar. Other elite level players may be fantastic assets, but they don’t necessarily fill the same role and balance your team as it was originally constructed. Adding Tulowitzki would be fantastic, but it would probably lead your team to having a power surplus without addressing the speed deficiency.

Another strategy might be to take a player who is highly valuable, but not a five-category player and try to redistribute that value more evenly across the shortstop position and the needed categories. I’d guess that the closest Jose Reyes clone out there would be Jimmy Rollins. So, you might want to take one of your best players and try to trade for Rollins, plus a poor man’s version of the player you offer. Maybe Prince Fielder was your first round pick and Reyes your second, and you try to trade Fielder for Rollins and a fifth-to-eighth-round first baseman.

If your options are not so nearly laid out, you may need to retool at multiple positions. This can be necessary at times, but I try hard to avoid relying on plans that add multiple layers of variables. Each trade you require to make your team whole is essentially an assumption that you will be able to execute a trade—and trades can be hard to execute.

So, if you turn a speedy top-of-the-order shortstop into a middle-of-the-order shortstop with no speed, you now are essentially presented with the same challenge again—flip another player in the reverse direction—before you are back where you need to be. Again, sometimes circumstances force us into difficult choices, but a cascade of moves to retool is always harder to execute than you convince yourself it will be.

These are obviously all hypothetical situations, but the underlying idea is that you need to do what is practically most useful as opposed to what you might be tempted to want to do psychologically.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Tuesday, April 16, 2013

The daily grind: 4-16-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:23am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Dillon Gee got rescheduled to today. Some readers are not as keen on Gee as I am.

If only A.J. Griffin were more available. Wily Peralta is plenty available but he's also a wild card.

Pitcher (bum): Yesterday I fed you a list of exploitable pitchers. Today I'll pare it down to my top two.

Mike Pelfrey's match-up against the Angels is dangerous. Thus far, their bats have been quiet. Everyone expected the Angels to score runs in bunches with Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, and Josh Hamilton trouncing opposing pitchers. So far that has not come to pass—the team is currently 22nd in runs scored—but I'm confident in saying that the runs will come. And Pelfrey is as good a place as any to start.

Jeremy Guthrie was a solid pitcher in Baltimore for a long time. And after some hiccups last year, he seems to be a solid pitcher again. I've listed him here because the Braves have been quite good at punishing mid-tier pitchers in the early going.

Hitter (power): Daniel Nava seems like a good grab for today. He offers balanced production in the non-steals categories.

Evan Gattis has been fun to watch thus far. As I mentioned yesterday, I think he'll find himself "figured out" soon, but the grace period should still be open.

Hitter (speed): Juan Pierre should be putting balls in play, which translates about 25 percent of the time into a steal opportunity.

I expect Xavier Paul to start, although like Nava he's more of a well-rounded choice. Unlike Nava, he might also sneak a bag.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Yesterday I learned that Bud Norris is lightly owned. I then verified that he's basically been the same pitcher who posted a 4.23 FIP last season. So use him with caution against the hot-hitting A's.

J.A. Happ is worth targeting if you're in a rather deep league.

Pitcher (bum): I've never been a fan of Alfredo Aceves as a starting pitcher, so I think the Indians will do just fine.

Here's a potential slop fest - Tommy Hanson and the Angels versus Vance Worley and the Twins. I think I'll have a Fanduel lineup with just Angels and Twins.

Hitter (power): Alberto Callaspo offers neither power nor speed, but he can post a nice average when matched against a guy like Worley.

I think Chris Heisey against John Lannan should benefit the hitter.

Hitter (speed): Aaron Hicks has another good match-up if the Twins are going to stick with him. If not, go grab Darin Mastroianni for steals duty. He's a one category contributor, but he'll swipe bases in bulk.

Nate Schierholtz has been the Cubs' top hitter thus far. He offers a little power and speed against guys like Justin Grimm.

Weather watch

The Mets and Rockies look like they'll have to battle occasional snow showers for their double-header, but the forecast isn't as bad as it was yesterday and they should be able to play.

The Reds, Phillies, Cardinals, and Pirates may be interrupted by thunderstorms, but it looks like they'll be short.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Monday, April 15, 2013

The daily grind: 4-15-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:47am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Dillon Gee might not like the cold, but if he can stay warm and if the two teams play, he should do well.

Erik Bedard and Tommy Milone face each other today. Bedard is eight percent owned while 51 percent of leagues have a Milone owner. The A's have raked in the early going so be aware.

Pitcher (bum): None of the pitchers going today are particularly bad. My gut says Joe Blanton against the Twins will do slightly worse than Gavin Floyd versus the Blue Jays or Bronson Arroyo against the Phillies.

Hitter (power): Dayan Viciedo has the platoon advantage today.

Domonic Brown is holding his head above water thus far, but I expect more before long.

Josh Donaldson could give you some production from a thinner position (third base). Teammate Nate Freiman should get to take some swings out of the designated hitter slot today, but I'm not rushing to own that match-up.

Hitter (speed): Jackie Bradley Jr. is working toward a demotion, but he's still a solid speed play.

Aaron Hicks has been struggling even more than Bradley, but he has a match-up that should help produce balls in play.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): There are lots of ugly ducklings tomorrow. A.J. Griffin has a great match-up against the Astros. That's the best of any tomorrow, but he's less available than you might think at 48 percent owned.

Chris Capuano is getting his first start against the Padres. I like to avoid starts in which a bullpen guy is getting stretched out. There is increased risk that he will not go five innings. Unfortunately, the list of tolerable choices is thin tomorrow.

From a pure stuff perspective, Wily Peralta against the Giants is a no-brainer. He has trouble converting that stuff into success and every start has the risk of being a bumpy ride.

Pitcher (bum): Break out the dart board again. Here are a few of the most flammable names going tomorrow:

Mike Pelfrey against the Angels

Jonathan Sanchez against the Orioles

Kyle Kendrick against the Reds

Ubaldo Jimenez against the Red Sox

Jeremy Guthrie against the Braves

Aaron Laffey against the Rockies (likely to be postponed or changed)

Hitter (power): Daniel Nava seems to be getting plenty of work against right-handers and that should continue.

Hop on the Evan Gattis bandwagon for a day. He'll likely find himself over-exposed soon due to his aggressive approach, but soon is not yet.

Hitter (speed): I've always been over-fond of Xavier Paul. He will face Kendrick if the Reds opt to play him tomorrow, which is a fine match-up for any lefty.

Dan Haren is quite hittable so far, which means that Juan Pierre should be able to put every ball in play, potentially reach base multiple times, and maybe attempt multiple steals.

Noteworthy news

Johnny Cueto has a strained lat, which means the story of the minors, Tony Cingrani, should be called up soon.

Weather watch

Rain, snow, and sub-freezing temperatures are going to make the entire four-game series in Denver quite difficult for the Rockies and Mets.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Waiver Wire Week 3, Vol. IV
Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:02am

Just two weeks into the season, a swirl of injuries, suspensions and playing-time challenges are making for some interesting prospects on the waiver wire.

Since we last checked in, Nick Tepesch couldn’t hold onto the lead against the Mariners on Sunday, and Chris Heisey and Justin Ruggiano have yet to take off despite being handed starting jobs. Travis Hafner added another home run, and Trevor Rosenthal and Kelvin Herrera have yet to unseat their teams' respective closers.

With an early last call today thanks to the 11:00 a.m. start of the Patriot’s Day game between the Red Sox and Rays, here’s a look at three players who might have some under-the-radar value in deeper leagues.

Marwin Gonzalez | SS | Houston Astros | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 14.9 ESPN ownership; 16 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 29 PA / .333 / .429 / .625 with 2 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 483 PA / .257 / .307 / .356 -- with 6 HR and 8 SB

Yes, the Astros are terrible, and there’s only so much fantasy value to be squeezed out of this team. But Gonzalez, 24, offers manager Bo Porter a defensive upgrade over Ronny Cedeno at shortstop and has earned more playing time thanks to his hot start.

Of course, the two home runs he mashed in Week 2 equal the same amount he produced in 219 plate appearances last year, and with a career .355 slugging percentage in more than 2,000 minor league plate appearances, I think it’s fair to say that power will not be one of Gonzalez’s fantasy attributes. Steals probably won’t be a big part of his game, either, with just 47 swipes in the minors.

Still, Gonzalez was able to maintain a decent 13.8 percent strikeout rate down on the farm, and he might be able to produce a batting average that’s respectable enough to merit fantasy attention. The question with Gonzalez is how well he’ll hold on to a starting job when his hot streak runs out. (Which may already be the case; he was hitless in his last two games before sitting out Sunday’s contest against the Angels.)

While I don’t think he’s much of a long-term option for fantasy owners in 2013, Gonzalez might be worthwhile as a short-term tourniquet for teams that need help at shortstop right now.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only leagues.

Andrew Bailey | RP | Boston Red Sox | 26 percent Yahoo ownership; 13.1 percent ESPN ownership; 25 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 4.1 IP / 1.19 FIP / 14.54 K/9 / 4.15 BB/9
Oliver: 35 IP / 3.12 FIP / 8.06 K/9 / 3.12 BB/9

Who doesn’t like cheap saves, especially when they’re coming from a former Rookie of the Year who has authored three seasons of 24 or more saves? Joel Hanrahan is being bothered by a sore hamstring and likely will give way to Bailey in Week 3 as the Red Sox’s master of the ninth inning. That alone gives the Jersey boy immediate value, and with his background, raises the question of whether this cameo could turn into a larger role.

Hanrahan said the injury surfaced back on April 3 against the Yankees, and that might explain his dreadful past two outings—a five-run blown save and loss against the Orioles on Wednesday, and Saturday’s game against the Rays, in which he was pulled in the ninth inning after walking the only two batters he faced.

There’s no set timetable for Hanrahan's return, and a trip to the disabled list has not been ruled out, but it’s just as possible he could be back in time to earn saves this weekend. Hanrahan obviously will be given more time to settle in as Boston’s closer, and if this injury is similar to the hamstring ailment that cost him five games early last year, he still could be a 35-save fantasy beast with a locked-in role all season long.

In the meantime, saves-hungry fantasy owners—especially those who just lost Kyuji Fujikawa to the DL—should give Bailey a ride in Week 3, especially with a full seven games on the BoSox schedule, including three each against the Indians and Royals.

Recommendation: Worth adding in deeper mixed leagues.

Jake Westbrook | SP | St. Louis Cardinals | 9 percent Yahoo ownership; 8.5 percent ESPN ownership; 42 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 15.2 IP / 4.63 FIP / 2.3 K/9 / 5.74 BB/9
Oliver: 186 IP / 3.95 FIP / 5.02 K/9 / 3.04 BB/9

I get it: Westbrook, with his mediocre career numbers (5.06 K/9, 1.39 WHIP, 4.14 FIP), is no one’s idea of a perfect fantasy pitcher, and two good starts to begin 2013 aren’t going to change that. But he did shut out a good Reds lineup on Wednesday, and with two starts on the docket in Week 3, probably deserves to be rostered in at least a few more leagues.

Westbrook, 35, has largely shed the injury history that gutted a good portion of his career, as he’s made at least 28 starts in each of the past three seasons. Pitching for the Cardinals, the team with the third-most runs scored in baseball entering Sunday’s action, he’s certainly a strong start on Tuesday when he faces Jonathan Sanchez at Pittsburgh, and a decent option later in the week against the Phillies.

Westbrook offers low expectations long-term, to be sure, but he's someone who probably can justify a roster spot in more than a few mixed leagues.

Recommendation: Worth a flier in deeper mixed leagues.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Friday, April 12, 2013

The daily grind: 4-12-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): It's hard to trust a pitcher in a cold weather, wet, and windy game. It could strongly favor him or really hurt his odds. Carlos Villanueva will get those conditions today.

John Lannan is hardly impressive, but even he can handle a futile Marlins lineup.

Patrick Corbin is a fairly reliable option for waiver wire fodder. He'll struggle to win tonight against Clayton Kershaw, but his overall numbers should be acceptable. However, when you stream starters, you should usually be aiming at the win above all other things.

Pitcher (bum): I'm mistrustful of Jose Quintana and don't really expect much out of him this year.

Tommy Hanson is just the latest veteran on my list of guys who used to be really good.

Jon Garland isn't on that list, and facing the Padres in Petco park might even make this a favorable match-up.

Hitter (power): Jedd Gyorko against Garland seems the like kind of contact hitter versus contact pitcher match-up that could generate a couple line drives.

Chris Carter should bring the power stick against Hanson.

I recommended Lucas Duda yesterday, but let's pass based on the crazy weather. To clarify, the weather is crazy for baseball, not Minnesota. That's why nobody understands the decision to forgo a retractable roof on Target Field.

I don't know if the inner Phillies fan is capturing my objectivity on this one, but I really love Domonic Brown this year.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable has a solid match-up against Garland and a decent base running match-up against Wilin Rosario

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I found out that Jason Hammel is lightly owned at 49 percent. After his breakout last season, somebody should be rolling the dice on him in most leagues as a regular rosteree.

The Phillies have this thing where they don't hit ANYBODY that they haven't faced before, giving Jose Fernandez a solid second match-up. He's only 56 percent owned, so pick him up, reap the rewards, and then trade him for a boat before the league figures him out.

The same goes for Hyun-Jin Ryu (59 percent owned), except his match-up against the Diamondbacks is less exploitable.

Jhoulys Chacin has maybe my second favorite name in baseball and it feels good to be recommending him again. He's only 21 percent owned but does come with a couple warts. He's scrapped his strikeout pitch in favor of inducing more ground balls in any count, which might be prudent in real life, but hurts the fantasy bottom line.

Pitcher (bum): Joe Saunders start. Rangers go boom... Is what any three year old would say about this match-up.

The Angels should do similarly well against Lucas Harrell. You might even want to try Garrett Richards since he should be able to pick up an easy win.

Edinson Volquez has looked fugly this year. The Rockies prefer to hit at Coors Field, but they aren't entirely inept away.

I'm going to guess that Yovani Gallardo is still a couple starts from settling down.

Hitter (power): Madison Bumgarner is a tough assignment, but Scott Hairston likes to mash lefties. Similarly, Jonny Gomes will look to square up a David Price pitch.

I'm just going to keep name dropping Dom Brown until I can't any longer.

Hitter (speed): Craig Gentry has looked sharp in the early going and has glowing reports from Ron Washington.

Chacin's contact-oriented approach benefits Venable since it will give him more opportunity to use his speed.

Weather watch

The Mets and Twins will see temperatures in the 20s, wind, and some flurries. The Giants and Cubs might have it worse with temperatures in the 30s, wind, and some passing showers. The Rays and Red Sox will see similar weather to the Cubs, but rain is more likely to intervene with that game. They might be able to avoid playing altogether.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol. III
Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:42am

It's still early, of course, but the sunlight of a new fantasy season is starting to stream in. For dumpster-diving purposes, that means a bit of perspective, even if we remain wary of extremely small sample sizes. Still, it was encouraging to see Kelvin Herrera strike out the side on Wednesday to pick up another save in his quest to unseat Greg Holland as Kansas City's closer.

Justin Ruggiano | Miami Marlins | OF | 25 percent Yahoo ownership; 21.4 percent ESPN ownership; 30 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 31 PA / .233 / .258 / .433 with 1 HR and 2 SB
Oliver: 468 PA / .255 / .325 / .427 with 15 HR and 14 SB

Despite consideration of platooning Ruggiano with Chris Coghlan, the 31-year-old has been the team’s starting center fielder since the year began. Hitting in the fifth slot of the Marlins’ order behind Greg Dobbs, owners in deeper leagues should keep an eye on whether Ruggiano can build on the 13-home run, 14-steal season he compiled in 2012 when he made only 320 plate appearances.

Speaking of last year, one would do best to look past the .313 batting average, which was buoyed by a crazy .401 BABIP, especially when he’s yet to alleviate a career 26 percent whiff rate. But in that same sense, his balls in play have dropped just 21.3 percent of the time so far in 2013, and an average in the .260s is not unforeseeable.

With a cast of no-names hitting behind him in the batting order, and a home park that’s not generally charitable to right-handed power-hitters, I think 20-20 expectations are pushing it. But despite not-easy matchups in Week 3 (three at home against the Nats, four in Cincinnati), Ruggiano offers under-the-radar value in deeper mixed leagues. Just don’t expect a huge breakout from a 31-year-old who’s compiled only 558 career plate appearances.

Recommendation: Decent outfield depth in mixed leagues.

Nicholas Tepesch | Texas Rangers | SP | 0 percent Yahoo ownership; 1.3 percent ESPN ownership; 19 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 7.1 IP / 2.98 FIP / 6.14 K/9 / 3.68 BB/9
Oliver: n/a

“Must-add” labels shouldn’t be given out frivolously, and mixed league owners might benefit from waiting an extra start or two from the 24-year-old Tepesch before kicking someone off the island. But there was certainly a lot to like coming from Tepesch on Tuesday, when he pitched 7.1 strong innings at home against the Rays to lead his team to a 6-1 victory, mixing five strikeouts against three walks.

It’s true that Tepesch has made only one start in his career in Triple-A, and he doesn’t really project as a high-strikeout ace. But he demonstrated good control in the minors (2.27 BB/9) and pitched his way to a rotation spot in March. For the moment, Matt Harrison’s rotation spot is being filled by Justin Grimm, though even a speedy return for the southpaw shouldn’t immediately affect Tepesch’s job security. Long-term, Colby Lewis has begun to throw again as he returns from elbow surgery, though the team says it will be conservative in its rush to bring back the right-hander.

I certainly think Tepesch is worth a look in AL-only leagues, and deserves at least attention beyond that. Provided he can pitch well at home, he’s backed by a strong supporting cast and seems like he could be a rotation man in the majors for some time to come.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in AL-only leagues, though mixed-leaguers could probably hold back for another start or two.

Travis Hafner | New York Yankees | DH | 14 percent Yahoo ownership; 10.2 percent ESPN ownership; 19 percent owned in CBS
YTD: 31 PA / .333 / .419 / .556 with 2 HR and 0 SB
Oliver: 415 PA / .247 / .345 / .413 with 13 HR and 1 SB

Did a minor mechanical tweak rescue Travis Hafner’s fantasy value? It’s too soon to tell for sure, but he certainly looks locked in right now, posting a nice triple slash line to go along with two home runs and a field day in Cleveland on Monday. Sure, Hafner, 35, is a few years removed from the days when he terrorized American League pitching, but a left-handed power hitter in the middle of the Yankees’ order, one who plays half his games at Yankee Stadium, should be worth something on the waiver wire.

The Yankees will split Week 3 with three at home against the Diamondbacks (where he’ll likely miss Ian Kennedy and Trevor Cahill) and three in homer-happy Toronto, where he’s slugged .595 for his career with seven home runs in 78 plate appearances. We’ll see how healthy Hafner stays going forward, and whether he’ll lose playing time as soon as some of their key players return, but for the moment, he seems like a solid source of power.

Recommendation: Deeper mixed league material until he cools down.

Travis Wood | Chicago Cubs | SP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 5.8 percent ESPN ownership; 41 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 12.1 IP / 2.17 FIP / 7.30 K/9 / 3.65 BB/9
Oliver: 186 IP / 3.91 FIP / 7.01 K/9 / 2.95 BB/9

In the infancy of his fourth season, Wood has become a hot pickup in CBS, with his ownership jumping 31 points over the past week. That owes, of course, not necessarily to a high ceiling but his fast start, which has seen the 26-year-old left-hander put together two strong outings. But at the risk of pouring cold water here, Wood, of whom I’ve never really been a huge fan, completed his work against the Brewers and Pirates, two teams whose offenses have gotten off to sluggish starts. And to my mind, he’s still a flyball pitcher calling Wrigley Field his home ballpark, which doesn’t boost my confidence, even though Oliver seems to have nothing but nice things to say about him.

He lines up for two starts in Week 3, facing the Rangers and Derek Holland, who’s looked good in his first two starts, and the raw but high-upside Wily Peralta in Milwaukee. If you need the starts, go get him, but if your bench spots are precious, I’d move on.

Recommendation: NL-only leagues for the time being.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, April 11, 2013

Blind resume: starting pitcher
Posted by Jeffrey Gross at 7:04am

In fantasy baseball, as in real baseball, there is a lot of surplus value to be found by acting objectively. While brand name players carry some assuring degree of competence, what we call "the known quantity" factor, they also carry little upside. Marquee players come at marquee prices.

That is not to say they are not immensely valuable. In fantasy, few players achieve, let alone achieve with regularity, the kind of production that Miguel Cabrera offers in 5x5 formats (and that is before you consider his third base eligibility). The extra few bucks you spend at an auction acquiring Cabrera above market rate have a better expected return rate than paying an extra few bucks to acquire a "lower tier" option such as Pablo Sandoval or even a next-tier guy like Evan Longoria. When you pay $45 and get $45 in production, you come out on top because, profit aside, so few players produce $50 worth of value.

The problem with marquee players arises not on the upside, but on the downside. If you spend market value on a top player who has a "down year," a real risk considering there are no guarantees in baseball (this is doubly true for pitchers), even if that down year is 75 percent his normal production, you are losing (or risking, in foresight terms) a lot of money that could have been better allocated elsewhere.

Players you draft are generally valuable because they are some degree better than "replacement level"—that is to say the best player available on the waiver wire in your league. The greater above the replacement level a player is, the more value he has. In some sense, this value can be looked at linearly. If say the replacement level RBI total is 60 in your league, then you can run a standard deviation analysis and calculate how much each additional RBI is worth.

However, this analysis can also be looked at exponentially. You have only a finite number of active roster spaces that can accrue stats for your team. The greater the production you can cram into a single player, the more value he has to your team. If you think of the value above replacement level a given set of players can offer, as you move further away from the replacement level, the pool of players to draw from shrinks.

That is one reason Miguel Cabrera is so valuable and often goes for above market. It is not just that he can put up $40-50 of value, but also that the "next best" third basemen, likely Adrian Beltre, is likely to produce $10 or so less in value. By spending a few extra bucks to cram additional production into your bottom line out of a single player, that gives you extra flexibility at the end of the draft and during the season. For this reason, players in the upper tiers have arguably "above market" value not reflected in their simple production-based dollar values.

The converse of this exponential view is also true. As a player deviates from his expectations and toward the replacement level in a down year, his value flattens. Those +20 RBI become +10, and all of a sudden you could have had that kind of production out of a much easier-to-replace/cheaper-to-purchase player plus additional dollars to allocate elsewhere.

Brand names, therefore, offer not only limited upside, but, if you buy into the exponential value or "uncaptured" value approach, they offer substantial downside—more so than good players in lower tiers who can be got at lower prices.

This is not to say, of course, that marquee players should be avoided. To the contrary, I practice the stars and scrubs approach to fantasy auctions. What it means is that marquee players need to be picked out with care. You should focus more on the downside than the upside when selecting a player and evaluating his value. Players like Cabrera, Robinson Cano and Prince Fielder end up atop my draft board in front of players like Mike Trout, Ryan Braun and Matt Kemp not because I think they are better players or even because I think they have comparable ceilings. Rather, I think the likelihood that my dollar investment in the former set of players is better maximized than my dollar value on the latter set of players. This is my personal risk assessment, as I lean toward calculated decision-making with small incremental victories as compared to the big win or big loss risk-taking approach.

In that vein, let's objectively look at a player who is traditionally ignored in fantasy formats but offers good value, a relatively high floor and no significant injury concern for his price.

This player, Player A, was ranked 320 overall by Yahoo in the preseason. In standard 12 team 5x5 leagues, he was thus deemed an undraftable player. Player A was the 156th most valuable player in fantasy last season. In the chart below, is Player A's 2012 fantasy season against the seasons of nine higher-ranked starting pitchers, none ranked outside the top 300. In fact, the second lowest rated player in the sample (Player C) is ranked nearly 50 spots ahead of Player A.

Name 2013 Y! ADP 2012 Y! Rank W ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 GB% FIP xFIP SIERRA

Player A 320 156 13 3.67 1.22 6.7 2.5 51.2% 4.00 3.84 3.87

Player B 206 161 10 3.10 1.25 6.3 3.0 41.8% 4.60 4.44 4.44

Player C 273 35 16 2.86 1.09 6.1 1.6 40.5% 3.51 3.96 4.06

Player D 178 154 13 3.47 1.26 7.0 3.1 44.3% 3.43 3.95 4.14

Player E 218 205 13 3.78 1.29 7.0 3.3 61.2% 3.85 3.76 3.77

Player F 144 142 10 3.45 1.19 7.6 2.1 51.0% 3.42 3.39 3.43

Player G 213 259 11 4.03 1.25 7.0 2.6 58.8% 3.67 3.54 3.51

Player H 221 145 16 3.62 1.21 5.1 2.4 55.5% 3.78 4.10 4.14

Player I 241 483 11 4.56 1.33 6.1 3.0 47.6% 4.65 4.43 4.39

Player J 204 293 12 4.67 1.22 7.4 2.7 43.1% 4.75 4.14 3.96

10 Player Mean Stats 222 203 12.5 3.72 1.23 6.6 2.6 49.5% 3.97 3.96 3.97

Player A Rank 10th 5th T-3rd 6th 4th 6th 4th 4th 8th 4th 4th

Striving to find players of comparable value, I avoided players with a history of "elite" overall production. I did not want players like Dan Haren, even if 2012 was an aberration year, in the mix. Second, I tried to avoid players who clearly offered more value than Player A in a single category. I did not want to select a player slightly inferior to Player A or comparable to Player A in all aspect save for, for example, a substantially better strikeout rate. Third, I selected only players ranked higher inside the top 300 overall by Yahoo. There is clearly some personal bias in my selection process, but I believe that I found some good value comparables for the purpose of demonstrating that Player A is undervalued, even without the use of Z-Scores to confirm my selection.

Looking at the mix above, you will not find Player A clearly standing out in any category in comparison to the other nine players. He ranks third in wins, but his win total is only a half win greater than the sample average. On the flip side, you do not find this player lacking in any category in comparison to the other nine players. His WHIP, strikeout rate, walk rate, groundball rate, SIERRA and xFIP are all comfortably within the middle/middle-plus of the pack. Even in terms of the value that Player A provided in 2012, Player A is the sample median.

Player A is not an exciting or game-changing player. Few pitchers who strike out fewer than 7.0 batters per nine innings are. Player A is, however, the kind of key cog you hope can round out your pitching staff with quality innings so you don't have to micromanage and gamble on day-to-day match-ups and the waiver wire.

Of the 21 qualified pitchers who posted a ground ball rate of 50 percent or higher last season, nine had a higher strikeout rate than Player A. Only six had a strikeout rate greater than 7.0:Those six players are A.J. Burnett, David Price, James Shields, Adam Wainwright, Edinson Volquez and C.J. Wilson. Only Price, Shields and Wainwright had equal or better walk rates as Player A did last season.

So far this season, Player A has started two games and pitched 12.2 innings. He has won both outings, and and has a 13:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Player A started 210 games between 2006 and 2012 (an average of 30 per season). His average innings pitched over that span is 184 per season, and he has pitched under 175 innings pnly once (161.1 innings that season) since becoming a full-time major leaguer in 2006. While no 200+ inning work horse, Player A threw 1,291.1 innings between 2006 and 2012—16th highest overall among pitchers over that span. Player A is also not an apparent injury risk. The only time that Player A has been on the disabled list was for a shoulder sprain in the year he threw 161.1 innings.

Care to guess who Player A is? Let's reveal the 10 players listed in the above chart in reverse order

Player J is Derek Holland. Holland owns a career 4.69 ERA. Despite peripherals that indicate he is likely better a better pitcher than the results have shown to date, none of his FIP, xFIP, SIERRA or tERA check in below the 4.0 threshold (OK, his career xFIP is 3.99) in an era in which the average ERA is barely north of 4.0. Yahoo's preseason rankings valued Holland comparably to where he performed in 2012.

Player I is Clay Buchholz, who owns one elite fantasy campaign, one good half-season, one bad one, one average-at-best half-season, and a set of peripherals that do not match his minor league hype. Buchholz has a real nice curveball, but he still needs to work on his other pitches (and stay healthy) if he is ever going to be anything more than a spot starter with flashes of brilliance. Buchholz barley ranked in the top 500 among all fantasy players last season, but was ranked more than 75 spots ahead of Player A in Yahoo's preseason rankings. Buchholz, to this point in his career, is all name and without a reliable track record. At best, he is a medium reward, high risk player.

Player H is Tim Hudson, who is a much better real life pitcher than fantasy pitcher due to his chronically low strikeout rates and reliance on ground balls and a good defense. Hudson is actually a good comparable for Player A, albeit with a few more ground balls. Hudson's 2012 season was pretty similar to Player A's in terms of value provided. He was the 145th most valuable player overall in 2012, 11 spots ahead of Player A. Yet Hudson ranks 100 spots higher in Yahoo's preseason rankings. I would probably take Hudson over Player A—but it is a darn close call.

Player G is Alex Cobb, an interesting player to be ranked 100 spots ahead of Player A. Cobb's minor league numbers indicate that he has more strikeout upside (with good control), and his major groundball rate has been better than Player A's, albeit in under 200 innings pitched. Nonetheless, Cobb has no record of major league success, and ZiPS pegs him pretty close to Player A's expected output (albeit with a few more strikeouts). In terms of upside, I would rather have Cobb over Player A, but if filling out a roster for quality innings rather than upside risk plays, I would rather have Player A. Player A also pitches in the National League for a team with a good defense; Cobb pitches in the AL East.

Player F is Doug Fister, the only player in the list with substantially better control than Player A. Because he had a career minor league strikeout per nine rate of 6.7, I view Fister's post-Seattle strikeout rate skeptically. The lower a player's strikeout rate, the more he has to be better/reliable in other categories. I am not sure I want to bank on any wins of a Tigers pitcher who relies more on the defense behind him than his own skill in converting outs. I view Fister as a slightly better, post-renaissance Joel Pineiro. I am probably in the minority, but I would rather have Player A than Fister.

Player E is Trevor Cahill, who strikes me as another good value comp for Player A. While neither has huge strikeout potential, I think Cahill has better strikeout upside. My biggest knock is that his control is average at best. Cahill's career 55 percent groundball rate goes a long way toward erasing free passes via the infield double play, but Arizona's bandbox is not the most forgiving place to make mistakes. Furthermore, the Diamondbacks defense is likely no better than league average. Player A's team's offense and defense rank among the best in the league, and his home park is pretty neutral. While Cahill is arguably the better "skills" pitcher with youth on his side (he is 26, compared to Player A's age of 31), I think Player A will be more valuable than Cahill in 2013—just as he was in 2012.

Player D is Jarrod Parker, a young pitcher with a lot of promise and upside. Although Parker's rookie season strikeout per nine rate, just under 7.0, was nothing special, his lower-level minor league numbers indicate that he has a little whiff potential to grow into. Parker's upper minor seasons do not give much confidence in an elite strikeout rate, though 2009 and 2011 were bookend seasons to his Tommy John surgery. Parker exhibited good control in the minors, and has regained his control form now three seasons removed from surgery. Oakland is a great place to call your home park, and the A's have a pretty good defense. Parker's skills upside is greater than Player A's, and his "real life" situation (playing in Oakland ahead of a good defense) make him a solid young pitcher to own. Without a doubt, I would take Parker over Player A at the same cost, but I would not pay multifold over for Parker.

Player C is Kyle Lohse, who barely hooked on a with a team this offseason coming off back-to-back seasons that rank among the three best in his decade-plus long career. Lohse is probably the best comp to Player A based purely on his strikeouts and walks. Lohse is decidedly below average in strikeouts for his career (5.7 strikeouts per nine), but so is Player A, who owns a marginally better career rate. Both are stingy with walks. Lohse, however, is four year Player A's senior, and he plays in front of one of the worse defensive teams in the game. Furthermore, the Brewers bullpen is terrible. Lohse is a pretty neutral groundball/flyball pitcher, so Player A takes the edge there as well. I would not bet that either will be better than the other by the end of the season, but at the same price, I would rather have Player A. At a cheaper cost, Player A as the better choice is a no-brainer.

Player B, Jeremy Hellickson, has had a pretty impressive start to his major league career on the surface (3.15 ERA and 1.20 WHIP with slightly above average control), but his career peripherals (4.52 SIERRA, 4.53 FIP, 4.53 xFIP, 4.59 tERA, 6.0 K/9, 38.7 percent groundball rate) paint the story of a pitcher who's been a bit more lucky than he has been dominant.

(Of course, some pitchers are able to outpitch their peripherals and the luck-neutral measuring systems are not great at capturing/evaluating "extreme" pitchers at the margins accurately. Matt Cain (and many of his Giants teammates over the past several years), for example, has thrived off of a notoriously low home run per flyball rate. This offseason, Jeff Zimmerman observed that pitchers who work the edges of the strike zone tend to have an apparent peripheral-results gap. Hellickson was one of the pitchers identified as an "extreme edge percentage" type pitcher, which may go a long way in explaining the nearly run and a half differential between his career ERA and career FIP/xFIP/SIERRA/tERA.)

Hellickson is also on a very good defensive team, and Tropicana is underrated in terms of its offense-suppressing environment. However, in a vacuum, there are more red flags than positive signs when it comes to Hellickson. Edge percentage and youth (age 26) aside, Hellickson's strikeout rate is pretty low (even by American League standards) and his career strikeout to walk rate (1.94) is below average (the league average has grown from 2.2 to 2.5 during Hellickson's major league career). Hellickson is also a slightly flyball pitcher (0.94 career groundball to flyball ratio) with solid, but unimpressive velocity (91.1 miles per hour career). That is not to say Hellickson is a bad pitcher; just that he is not the "ace" his results to date have indicated. He has not pitched any better, from a skills standpoint, than Player A has for his career. To me, Hellickson is to Player A what to Blind Pig is to Pliny The Elder.

Player A...drum roll please...is Paul Maholm. Maholm's not had the most impressive career, and he's certainly had more lackluster years than good ones, but he's been a solidly above average pitcher for two straight seasons. Maholm is a pitch-to-contact player who is no longer playing in front of a horrible defensive alignment, which lends some reason to believe in his recent success. From 2006 to 2011, he pitched for the Pirates, who ranked in the bottom third among all teams in defense in all but one year. In the aggregate, the Pirates were one of the five worst defensive teams during Maholm's tenure.

Given his skills base, his current team's defense and his offense-neutral Atlanta home park, there is a lot to objectively and subjectively like about Maholm. The fact that he is on one of the best defensive teams in the National League goes a long way toward bolstering his win totals. And it counts for something when you realize that he will never have to pitch against that offense. The Braves also play a disproportionate number of their games against the Marlins (who are not very good), the Mets (who are not very good and are rebuilding) and the Phillies (who are decidedly average).

There are really no red flags cautioning against Maholm repeating his 2011-2012 performance level, a performance level ranking in the top 150-200 range overall among players, in 2013. That's a pretty solid return for $1. How he was deemed undraftable in the preseason, especially when players like Clay Buchholz are ranked inside the top 250 overall, is beyond my comprehension.

Jeffrey Gross is an attorney (and die-hard Cubs fan) who currently resides in Green Bay, Wisconsin. In addition to writing for The Hardball Times, he also reviews tasty adult beverages as part of a side project titled "saBEERmetrics." He previously worked for The Daily Illini and Northern Star newspapers as a film critic and sportswriter (respectively). You can reach him by email at saBEERmetrics AT gmail DOT com.

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The daily grind: 4-11-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:03am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Carlos Villanueva got bumped, which makes me a bit sad since I was putting him to use in a league. That leaves A.J. Griffin and Zach McAllister as the best waiver arms today. However, I don't think the Indians are going to get to play.

Pitcher (bum): Jason Marquis will be a common pick for this part of the column. You could also take a spin with some Giants against Scott Feldman.

Matt Harrison is missing his start, so Justin Grimm will go in his place.

Hitter (power): Try Raul Ibanez against Grimm.

As I mentioned yesterday, Nate Schierholtz and Daniel Nava don't really fit in the power basket, but they do have solid match-ups today.

Hitter (speed): Jackie Bradley Jr. might get a chance to steal a base, if the rain doesn't get in the way.

I imagine Gregor Blanco may have a shot at taking a couple bases today.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Villanueva goes tomorrow, with a much more difficult assignment against Matt Cain.

Usually I'd recommend Julio Teheran based on upside, but it's hard to stream anyone against the Nationals' frighteningly good lineup.

Here's a deep reach: John Lannan against the Marlins. So long as he's smart enough to auto-walk Giancarlo Stanton so he can pitch to Placido Polanco.

I watched the Phillies and Mets series rather closely, and I came away with the impression that the Mets aren't even trying to win games right now. So I like Vance Worley's prospects tomorrow.

I have another former Phillie, J.A. Happ, on my like list too.

Patrick Corbin is my Marco Estrada this season. I'm going to be recommending him early and often, even when he's opposed by Clayton Kershaw.

Pitcher (bum): I have strong suspicions that Jose Quintana had the best year of his career last season. The Indians could put together a few runs.

Tommy Hanson is yet another veteran who I'm convinced is broken.

And Jon Garland is just Jon Garland. It's hard to think much of him, but I won't be surprised if he turns in a solid season.

Hitter (power): I was surprised to discover today that Jedd Gyorko is only 43 percent owned. He's not available in my leagues, but I like the match-up for tomorrow.

Roll the dice on Chris Carter.

Lucas Duda could have that post-hype season. He hit a couple of impressive bombs yesterday.

I'll stop cheating and include Domonic Brown on the power side of the fence.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable has that Garland match-up.

Noteworthy news

Michael Saunders is likely headed to the disabled list. I'm glad I caught that because I had recommended him for today against Grimm.

Weather watch

The Blue Jays at Detroit and the Yankees at Cleveland look like rainouts in the making. The Orioles and Red Sox will contend with some rain too, but they should be able to play their game.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

The daily grind: 4-10-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:35am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): I'll grudgingly recommend Chad Billingsley here, but I wouldn't use him.

Pitcher (bum): Now here's where it gets interesting. TBA is pitching for the Indians after Brett Myers had to bail out Carlos Carrasco yesterday. Yet I still think that Jonathan Sanchez will have the worst outing of the day. There are plenty of others to choose from beyond that pair.

Hitter (power): Juan Francisco, Nolan Reimold, and Lucas Duda all have a power stroke and the match-up to use it.

Hitter (speed): I'm going to drop Collin Cowgill from the recommendation list. He's leading off, but he shouldn't be. That leaves Domonic Brown who I'm more excited about in a general sense rather than as a base stealer. Will Venable is more of a pure burner and Billingsley's first start isn't a bad place to play that card.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and recommend Carlos Villanueva. I've liked him for years.

A.J. Griffin may be a more reliable choice, although he faces the Angels' stacked lineup.

Pitcher (bum): The Marquis de San Diego (ahem, Jason Marquis) ought to struggle a bit. He's one of the few pitchers that I'm pretty sure I could bat above .250 against.

I'm playing heavily against used-to-be-talented veterans in the early going. I don't think Dan Haren is going to have a good year, which should mean runs for the White Sox.

Hitter (power): Nate Schierholtz doesn't really fit in either category, but Ryan Vogelsong is hittable.

Same as Schierholtz, Daniel Nava isn't much of a power threat, but he should start against Chris Tillman.

Michael Morse is no longer widely available, but if he wasn't picked up in your league, a start against Matt Harrison looks very attractive.

Hitter (speed): Try out Jackie Bradley Jr. against Tillman too.

Noteworthy news

Jered Weaver is out with a broken elbow, although no surgery is needed. Jason Motte may need surgery on his elbow though.

In his return from injury and a suspension for hitting Billy Butler in 2011, Carlos Carrasco was ejected for intentionally hitting Kevin Youkilis and may be suspended again. This is how life is meant to be lived.

Weather watch

It's looking quite stormy today. The Reds, Cardinals, Mets, Phillies, Brewers, Cubs, Jays, Tigers, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Indians, Orioles, and Red Sox all have a risk of rain or thunderstorms. None of the games appear at risk of a full rain-out, but delays could be rampant.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Hot out of the gate
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:10am

It’s April, and that means a lot of surprising names atop the young season’s value rankings. In this column, I’m going to focus on four players off to hot starts and select two who I’m buying into and two who I am not. When I say I’m buying into a player, that doesn’t necessarily mean that I’m buying into his current level performance, just that I think he’ll prove to have been mispriced in the preseason.

Similarly, for those I don’t buy, I’m not implying the player will be a bust, just that I see no reason to adjust preseason expectations for the player in light of him having a hot start.

Hot starts I’m buying

Dexter Fowler
Fowler wasn’t too far from breaking out last year. He put up double digit homers and steals and a .389 OBP. Having hit in the lower third of the lineup in roughly a quarter of his games, that stellar OBP translated into only 72 runs. When hitting in the one-two slots, where he is locked into in 2013, Fowler scored runs at a clip of roughly 90 per 162.

At age 27, Fowler should be entering his prime and I expected an increase in power—his SLG has increased each year of his career. Coming into the season, Yahoo ranked Fowler as their 52nd best outfield-eligible player, but by the end of the season, I predict he will be more of a top-30 outfielder and top-100 player.

Shin-Soo Choo
Since he was pre-ranked by Yahoo at 77 and 23rd among outfielders, I can’t say Choo was disrespected coming into the season. At his peak in 2009/2010, Choo was a legitimate five-category asset and a top-50 player. Hitting leadoff this season, it will be hard for him to put up above average RBIs, so he may now be more of a four-category player.

But he is still set up with a good chance to have the most valuable fantasy season of his career. Playing his home games in the Cincinnati will boost his home run totals, and hitting atop a very good Reds lineup should position him and his career .383 OBP to score more than 100 runs, a milestone reached by only 12 players in 2012. If he remains healthy, Choo could finish as a top-15 outfielder and a top 40 overall value.

Hot starts I’m not buying

Chris Davis
I don’t have anything against Chris Davis. I think he is a fine fantasy first baseman with a pretty well-defined skill set. I don’t think his scorching start is a complete anomaly; the man did hit 33 homers last year. But this column is about trying to determine whether players are likely to produce well beyond preseason expectations, and I don’t see enough evidence from Davis to indicate this to be the case—and certainly not from today forward, as we’ve most likely already seen his best week of the season.

In a very small 2013 sample size, he is striking out less often and walking more frequently. But, over his career he’s struck out in almost 31 pdercent of his plate appearances and walked in only 6 percent. I need to see the trend of this first week continue for a while longer before I anoint him a changed man and reevaluate his ceiling. I’d say to trade him now if you can, after having already reaped three weeks' worth of production in one.

Justin Masterson
Masterson has previously tempted fans to think he’s capable of taking the leap from just a guy into a legitimate mound asset. To kick of 2013, he’s been teasing fans again, but I’m not buying it. While he has struck out a batter per inning, he’s also walked seven in 13 frames—control has traditionally been one of Masterson’s problems.

Further, looking into the PITCHf/x data, he doesn’t seem to be doing anything particularly differently than that which has produced mediocrity in years past. The biggest difference from previous years is that he is throwing his slider a bit more and getting good results. It remains to be seen whether its efficacy can be maintained if hitters adjust and look for it a bit more. In a standard 12-team mixed league, I predict Masterson will spend time on a number of different teams as well as on the waiver wire in the course of the season.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Cold out of the gate
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:09am

The flip side of April’s custom of unfamiliar names atop the leaderboards is those studs mired in the dumps. Here I’m going to discuss two players whose poor starts I feel are indeed harbingers of poor seasons, as well as two players whose poor starts I chalk up to simply small sample size.

Concerning cold starts

Salvador Perez
Perez has been the recipient of considerable superlatives from many around the Kansas City Royals organization. He burst onto the scene last year and tore the cover off the ball before injuring himself. This left many fantasy owners eager to own Perez in 2013, expecting a real offensive star at the catcher position.

The first week of 2013 has not been kind to Perez though, who is sporting an ugly .200/.226/.233 line. If this keeps up, he’ll be demoted from the four/five slot in the batting order. One thing I worry about with Perez is that throughout his minor league career, he was not the power threat many investing in him have pegged him. Granted, we are talking about seasons when Perez was 18–20 years old, but his profile seemed more like a free swinger higher average type.

I don’t blame his owners for rolling the dice, but I would not be surprised if he struggles on and off throughout the entire season and finishes up being borderline waiver wire material in standard leagues.

Jason Kipnis
2012 was a tale of two halves for the 55th pre-ranked fantasy player of 2013. In the final 69 games of the season, Kipnis posted a .232/.322/.328 line, with 33 runs, 27 RBIs, three homers, and 11 steals. There aren’t too many players pre-ranked as a top-five option at their position who spent half of 2012 as a replacement-level player.

I deliberately avoided Kipnis is my drafts, given his price, and if I were a Kipnis owner and could get close to preseason value for him, I’d jump ship. He rode a surprising 2011 call-up into a great first half of 2012 and is now coming back to earth. I’d be quite surprised if he finishes the season ranked in the top 100.

What, me worry?

R.A. Dickey.
Dickey is certainly a player about whom there are varying opinions and, therefore, different owners probably have different expectations for him. While I did not expect him to repeat his 2012 Cy Young season, he did have a three-year track record of being highly effective and I was expecting a top 12-18 starter. I am not ready to jump off that position yet. Knuckleball pitchers will take their share of lumps and have their share of bad outings. As long as Dickey gets a handle on his control—he’s been uncharacteristically wild in his first two outings—he’ll settle in and be quite valuable.

Mike Trout
I am covering Trout here only because there was a segment of owners who did not believe him to be a legitimate No. 1 overall pick. One week into the season, he hasn’t stolen a base or hit a longball and has scored only three times. Don’t fret though. The skill set is still there and even with a decent amount of regression, it’s hard to see Trout not turning in a top-five season.

Now is the time to start knocking on the door of Trout owners. Those who selected him begrudgingly on the word of others and against their personal inclinations may be feeling skeptical and vindicated by this start and may be looking for a mulligan in their first round pick. Offer a late first-rounder or early second-rounder for him… it can’t hurt.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol. 2
Posted by Karl de Vries at 3:04am

When we last left our heroes, Kyuji Fujikawa was serving as caddy to Carlos Marmol, Jim Henderson was in John Axford’s shadow and Tyson Ross was nothing more than the man keeping Andrew Cashner out of the Padres’ starting rotation. One week later, Fujikawa is (for the moment) taking care of ninth-inning leads for the Cubs, my waiver wire wingman Jack Weiland’s prescient observation that Henderson could be The Man in Milwaukee was spot on, and Ross uncorked two wild pitches in a loss to the Rockies.

But just as we’ve kept tabs on those two closer situations through their upheaval, we now turn our attention to the Midwest, where two more bullpens might be headed toward crises of their own.

Trevor Rosenthal | St. Louis Cardinals | RP | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 4.6 percent ESPN ownership; 21 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 5 IP / 1.43 FIP / 12.60 K/9 / 1.80 BB/9
Oliver: 102 IP / 3.72 FIP / 7.17 K/9 / 3.72 BB/9

This is not what we call a quality outing for a relief pitcher:

0.1 IP, 2 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 0 K

It almost hurts to look at. So imagine how Mitchell Boggs must feel after his meltdown Monday against the Reds. Okay, so Boggs was hurt by a couple of infield rollers during that nightmarish frame, but along with a blown save last week, it’s been an inauspicious start for Jason Motte’s interim replacement. Regardless of how his MRI scheduled for Tuesday turns out (the results were not immediately available when I submitted this column), Motte is still at least a few weeks away from facing major league hitters, and unless St. Louis is hosting a Maalox night at the ballpark this month, some security in the ninth inning would be a nice thing to have.

Is Rosenthal the man? A bona fide flame-thrower whose average fastball velocity sat at 97 mph last year, Rosenthal in 27 career innings has boasted a 10.41 K/9, a nice groundball rate and a solid (2.6) walk rate. Problem is, Rosenthal was used exclusively as a starter during his minor league career, and he’s already blown two leads in his five appearances so far in 2013, making me question whether he has the guile for late-inning fire duty.

Bullpen counterpart Edward Mujica, meanwhile, has a wealth of relief experience, but just four career saves and not nearly the strikeout capability that Rosenthal does. Beyond that, 24-year-old Eduardo Sanchez is starting out the season in Triple-A but has strikeout stuff.

So far, manager Mike Matheny hasn’t indicated whether a change is on the way, so if you were needy enough to grab Boggs in the first place for the saves, you might as well hold onto him. But owners are clearly starting to move on to Rosenthal, which is fine if one has the bench space, though I’d say it’s less than guaranteed whether he’ll pick up saves as Motte continues to rehab.

Recommendation: Not worth the bench space until he earns the role.

Kelvin Herrera | Kansas City Royals | RP | 45 percent Yahoo ownership; 23 percent ESPN ownership; 32 percent CBS ownership

YTD: 3.1 IP / -0.27 FIP / 18.90 K/9 / 2.7 BB/9
Oliver: 68 IP / 3.38 FIP / 7.29 K/9 / 2.65 BB/9

It’s no revelation that Herrera has a live arm. According to FanGraphs’ PITCHfx charts, Herrera, 23, boasted the fastball with the second-highest average velocity among qualified relievers in 2012. We know he’s talented; the question is whether he’ll have fantasy value.

But it didn’t take long for opportunity to knock. Greg Holland gave up a crushing blown save/loss on Saturday, and had to be bailed out by Herrera against the Phillies on Sunday. Aaron Crow picked up the save on Monday’s 3-1 win over the Twins, but that can be chalked up to manager Ned Yost’s preference for not wanting to use either Holland or Herrera for the third straight day.

There’s a lot to like about the 23-year-old. I’m a big fan of his 2.24 walk rate, which suggests he can do more besides throw really, really hard. Yeah, an 81 percent strand rate feels due to come down a bit, but when it’s balanced by a 55.5 percent groundball rate, I’m willing to give it a pass.

Predictably, Yost has stood by his closer, and Holland, after an injury-affected start in 2012, pitched very well as KC’s closer last year. But his velocity seems to be off from 2012, and despite a nice track record, a high-quality, high-upside reliever waits to replace him. Herrera is already starting to be picked up in leagues; if there's a whiff of injury news from Holland he's a must-add.

Recommendation: Put your fantasy forces on DEFCON 3. Holland's departure might not be imminent, but his upcoming outings will be worth monitoring.

Justin Maxwell | Houston Astros | OF | 12 percent Yahoo ownership; 22 percent ESPN ownership; 23 CBS ownership
YTD: 27 PA / 360 / .407 / .560 with 0 HR / 0 SB
Oliver: 393 PA / .231 / .316 / .409 with 14 HR / 10 SB

Forget the milestone that marked the Astros’ inaugural American League game on March 31. The real story was center fielder Justin Maxwell, who belted two triples and made a great play on a David Murphy drive to lead the team to victory over the Rangers. Since then, Maxwell, 29, has hit in all but one of the games in which he’s appeared (entering Tuesday’s action), and has seen his CBS ownership jump by 11 percentage points since the season began.

Drafted by the Nationals in 2005, traded to the Yankees and claimed off waivers by the Astros at the beginning of last year, Maxwell posted a .229/.304/.460 line in 352 plate appearances. His .292 BABIP might suggest his batting average was the victim of some bad luck, but his 67 percent contact rate was the third-lowest among major league players with at least 350 plate appearances last year, and was accompanied by a dreadful 32.4 percent whiff rate.

Maxwell certainly possesses some pop, evidenced by his career .209 ISO, and with the tempting Crawford boxes overlooking ~~Enron’s~~ Minute Maid Park’s left field, it’s not hard to imagine a guy who bashed 18 home runs last year putting up at least 20 in this season. Add 15 to 20 steals and you have a cheap player who can help your squad—as long as you’re ready to stomach a hit to your team’s batting average.

Recommendation: He's cheap offense for AL-only leagues.

Garrett Richards | Los Angeles Angels | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership; 0 percent ESPN ownership; 6 percent CBS ownership
YTD: 4.1 IP / 4.42 FIP / 10.38 K/9 / 2.08 BB/9
Oliver ROS: 148 IP / 4.08 FIP / 5.98 K/9 / 3.54 BB/9

For those who were predicting a down year in fantasy value for Jered Weaver in 2013 (of whom there were many), good news: The fractured left elbow he suffered the other day will fulfill that prophecy. With Weaver facing at least a month away from major league action, the Angels are likely to tap Richards, 24, to pick up a few starts in the rotation while he’s away.

What is there to say about Richards? He offers a pedestrian 6.15 K/9 and 4.97 FIP during his career 89.1 innings, and isn't likely to set the fantasy world ablaze in 2013. But even a mediocre Angels hurler, backed by a strong offense and a bullpen that will eventually add Ryan Madson to its ranks, could be useful in some leagues.

Recommendation: Strictly AL-only right now.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Tuesday, April 09, 2013

The daily grind: 4-9-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 6:02am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Go get Dillon Gee for today, although the gambling man inside me thinks the Phillies will put up a couple of crooked numbers.

I'm actually going to throw a reversal in today. Yesterday I included Brandon Maurer with the bums. I'm not terribly confident in him, but he should be calmer today and the Astros are all kind of terrible at the dish.

Pitcher (bum): I haven't found anyone to bet me that Tim Lincecum will pitch well today, which is interesting since he did a lot better than Roy Halladay in his first outing. But yes, I think he'll walk a bunch of guys again and generally struggle.

Roberto Hernandez is a fine real-life arm to round out a rotation, but I think he'll give up a heaping handful of runs against the Rangers.

Hitter (power): Today I'm recommending very large men for power—Chris Carter and Nate Freiman (if he starts). You could also try Matt Joyce.

Hitter (speed): David Murphy is going to be recommended quite frequently if his ownership rate remains in the 30s. You can also try Leonys Martin, although watch out for a surprise Craig Gentry start.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Not a good day for streaming or daily fantasy tomorrow. There are way too many bad pitchers getting the call.

I suppose you could try Chad Billingsley. Or if you're really adventurous, Barry Zito has the Rockies away from Coors.

Pitcher (bum): Print off a list of tomorrow's probable pitchers and throw a dart at it. You'll find yourself a bum.

I think Jonathan Sanchez is most likely to immolate tomorrow.

Hitter (power): You can keep using Juan Francisco. He can hit home runs and generate energy for your wind-powered turbine.

I like Nolan Reimold against plain vanilla Ryan Dempster. I also like Lucas Duda's power stroke against Kyle Kendrick.

Hitter (speed): Collin Cowgill's a solid pick to grind out a steal. I like Domonic Brown more as a power threat against Jeremy Hefner, but I'm also convinced he's going to steal 15 bases this year and he has to start sometime.

Weather watch
Teams in the Midwest will have to dodge scattered thunderstorms. The Twins, Royals, Royals and Yankees look least likely to avoid delays although the Tigers, Blue Jays, Brewers and Cubs could also be affected. This makes it a good day for deep daily fantasy leagues since some owners will be throwing away picks on these games.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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The Verdict: watch out for panic trades
Posted by Michael Stein at 3:10am

After weeks and months of draft preparation, the first week of the fantasy baseball season is now in the books. Some people are reveling seeing their draft strategies come to fruition. Others are already in panic mode as their players have flopped or gotten injured.

The truth is that the results of the first week of the season bear little knowledge of how the rest of the year will play out. But that doesn't stop people from overreacting in a positive or negative manner. Fantasy baseball leagues need to be cognizant of those owners who will excessively undervalue or overvalue players based on their first week's performance.

This is not to say that elite superstar players cannot be traded. But, when trades involve players in the upper echelon of fantasy baseball greatness, there needs to be additional scrutiny. For example, 2012 AL Rookie of the Year Mike Trout was a top three overall pick in almost any fantasy baseball league format. What wasn't to like about him? He hit for a great average, had power, stole bases, and scored runs. But his performance during the first week of the season was nothing to write home about and certainly not commensurate with his draft value.

Based on one week's worth of games, some fantasy owners may panic and try to trade Trout for fear that this is foreshadowing the proverbial sophomore slump. The inverse is the example of Chris Davis. Davis was once a highly touted prospect with the Rangers who never developed into the hitter that Texas though he would. In 2012 with the Orioles, Davis showcased his talent by hitting more than 30 home runs.

However, this year he was still a mid-round draft pick at best because he had a limited track record and serious flaws in his mechanics. But during the first week of the 2013 season, Davis was arguably the fantasy MVP with four home runs and 16 RBIs through the first four games. Niw, fantasy owners may tend to overvalue him based on this small sample.

In either case, it is important that all leagues ensure that trades are made with equitable compensation based on more than just one week's worth of games. Whether your league handles trades with commissioner's approval or through a league vote, you need to employ an evaluation of players that expands beyond just Week One of this season. Trading Mike Trout for Vernon Wells should never be permitted regardless of their statistics to date.

Again, this doesn't mean a player like Trout cannot be traded. It just means you need to evaluate trades through an objective lens that takes into account much more than a small sample of early season statistics.

Another moral to this story is that fantasy players should not be quick-reacting traders. You drafted your teams based on your own rankings and preferences, likely employing some form of strategy. You should not abandon that strategy just because it hasn't worked out after one week. Your fellow league members will likely smell blood in the water and try to feast on your emotions. It is imperative not to let that happen.

However, there is no denying that savvy fantasy players will try to do such a thing, and they have every right to. But if one of them is able to negotiate a trade for an elite player who got off to a slow start, it doesn't mean such a trade should be approved if it does not bring back equitable or fair compensation.

Clearly each trade should be evaluated in a vacuum and in conjunction with the type of league you are in. Trades made in keeper leagues and dynasty leagues have a different evaluation than non-keeper or redraft leagues. But a lopsided and inequitable trade is still lopsided and inequitable no matter when it is consummated. At this stage of the season, league commissioners should be aware of deals that involve high profile players for less than equitable compensation.

The Court wants to hear your comments on whether you concur or dissent with the verdict by sending an email to michael.stein @ fantasyjudgment.com, or find us on Facebook and Twitter @FantasyJudgment.

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Monday, April 08, 2013

The daily grind: 4-8-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:44am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Paul Maholm is up to 48 percent owned and a game against the Giancarlo Stantons of Miami temporarily justifies that rate.

Several other marginal pitchers have good match-ups today, but they are all heavily owned.

Pitcher (bum): I'm not going to recommend streaming the Twins offense very often, but Ervin Santana seems to have lost his major league eligibility. He's opposed by Kevin Correia, who is usually good for giving up four runs.

I have a $10 bet against Roy Halladay that should tell you my opinion pretty clearly. I bet that he would not pitch six innings and would not hold the Mets' tepid offense to two or fewer runs. We'll see.

Hitter (power): On that note, try Lucas Duda with the knowledge that Doc is only half a season removed from toying with hitters of Duda's caliber.

Chris Parmelee should get a chance at Santana, but Kaufman Stadium isn't the most home run friendly.

It's another Jonny Gomes day. Fun!

Hitter (speed): Jeremy Hellickson was rough around the edges in his first outing, so go ahead and try David Murphy (batting fifth most days and should be owned outright despite 33 percent ownership rate) and Leonys Martin.

A.J. Pollock has the platoon advantage against Wandy Rodriguez.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Dillon Gee is unlikely to beat Cliff Lee tomorrow, but he's a good pitcher who should be owned several times more frequently than his current 12 percent rate.

Carlos Carrasco is interesting in the same way that craps is interesting. I don't know what you'll get tomorrow, but the Yankees offense is el terrible. (And I just LOVE being able to say that.)

Pitcher (bum): Roberto Hernandez squeaked through his inaugural outing, but I'm not sure he can repeat the performance against the Rangers.

Same goes for a Mike Pelfrey versus Jeremy Guthrie match-up in Kansas City. If the offenses were a little better, I would predict greater than 15 combined runs scored. But they aren't, so I won't.

I'm pretty convinced that Tim Lincecum is suckballs now, which is a technical term for the kind of guy who walks seven in five innings and doesn't get away with it.

Brandon Maurer was less than stellar in his debut. He appeared to throw waaay too many pitches over the heart of the plate. Might have just been nerves, or he might get teed up by Houston's few hitters with power.

Hitter (power): Chris Carter has been ice cold to start the year, but a grooved fastball could change that around.

Nate Freiman is a very large man and thus should have some very large power, like Richie Sexson. C.J. Wilson is no slouch though and there's no guarantee that Freiman will even play.

The Ryan Doumit and Trevor Plouffe trains are slowing down, which could mean either is available in his start again Guthrie.

I'm going to go ahead and give a quiet recommendation for Travis Hafner.

Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez is still heavily owned, but he's available in every league in which I do not own him, so I suspect he's available in some of yours too. He has a nice match-up against Travis Wood.

Try Murphy and Martin again. Murphy should be owned at least 10 percent more frequently than Gomez.

Noteworthy news

Kyuji Fujikawa appears to have ousted Carlos Marmol already. I just got done explaining in multiple places that the Cubs have a vested interest in using Marmol so they can dump some of his salary, but I guess they have given up on that plan.

Kelvin Herrera notched a save and could compete with Greg Holland if the latter struggles.

A few first basemen are banged up. Freddie Freeman hit the disabled list with an oblique strain while Adam LaRoche is day-to-day with a strained back.

Weather watch
The Yankees, Indians, Cubs, Brewers, Reds and Cardinals are all playing around some rain, but it doesn't look like any of the games should be overly affected. St. Louis could see isolated thunderstorms, while the other two games have morning rain that probably won't linger.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Fantasy Waiver Wire: Week 3, Vol. I
Posted by Jack Weiland at 3:09am

Good news, you guys! The ambitious letter writing campaign by rabid Waiver Wire fans (c/o "The Powers That Be," 1 THT Way, Madeupville, BS, 01234, USA, America, Plant Earth) has resulted in said The Hardball Times' brain trust deciding what the Waiver Wire columns need is more ~~cowbell~~ waiver wire. So, starting today, my good friend Karl de Vries (@Karl_de_Vries) and I (@jackweiland) will be posting our waiver wire finds three times a week on a Monday-Wednesday-Friday schedule.

In addition, rather than segregating our columns by league (Karl had been doing the National League after doing the American League last year, and I had been doing the American League this season) we will no longer be shackled by these cumbersome restraints.

Or, in other words, Karl finally will (at long last!) be allowed to write about players on the Astros you might want to add for some reason. Which, if I'm honest, is a little disappointing for me on a personal level, because I have really enjoyed giving him a hard time about getting screwed out of covering the Astros the past two seasons. Such is life.

To recap some of our recent WW subjects:

Kyuji Fujikawa - Karl highlighted the Cubs reliever on Friday, as it seemed only a matter of time before Carlos Marmol's high wire act would wear out its welcome in Chicago. Turns out that matter of time happened to be two days, as Fujikawa was officially tabbed as Marmol's replacement. He's now a must-add if you're in need of saves.

Stephen Drew - The Red Sox shortstop is expected to be activated Wednesday, and it's worth gambling that his power still will be there and can help him crack the top ten shortstops.

Brandon Maurer - Debuted Thursday in Oakland and gave up six runs in six innings of work, including home runs to Josh Reddick and Yoenis Cespedes. His fastball was working mostly in the 91-92 mph range, and although the end result wasn't pretty, he didn't look as bad as his line might indicate. He's still a good buy in dynasty leagues and worth using in his next start against the Astros, who have struck out like 5,000 times already this year. (Slight exaggeration.)

J.A. Happ - Looked very good against the Red Sox Saturday, throwing 5.1 scoreless innings, striking out six and walking three. He's still owned in just 18 percent of CBS leagues and can be a nice addition for teams in need of starting pitcher depth.

Dylan Axelrod - Also posted a nice line in his debut Saturday against the Mariners, pitching 5.2 innings of scoreless ball, walking two and striking out three. He remains useful in a pinch while he hangs on to the last starting job in the White Sox rotation, but matchups and park factors must be considered.

A few names to consider heading into Week 3:

Jim Henderson | Brewers | RP | ESPN: 1.4 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 24 percent | CBS: 17 percent
YTD: 2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.79 FIP, 3.09 xFIP, 9.00 K/9, 0.00 BB/9
Oliver Projection: 3.95 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 9.12 K/, 4.77 BB/9, 66 IP

Early-season blown saves are by no means the end of the world. (After all, Fernando Rodney blew his first save opportunity this season, and no one is saying it's time to bail on him after he had the most amazing year in the history of forever last year.) But John Axford's early season struggles, including a mysterious drop in velocity, should have owners ready to pull the trigger.

Axford entered the 2012 season slotted safely in the ninth-inning role after a superb 2011 season in which he racked up 46 saves, had a 1.95 ERA, a 2.41 FIP, and a 2.85 xFIP. He struck out 28.2 percent of batters faced in 2011, and walked just 8.2 percent.

For whatever reason, 2012 didn't work out quite as well. His ugly 4.67 ERA and nine blown saves caused a temporary demotion from the closer role while fellow 6-foot-5 hard-throwing Canadian righthander Jim Henderson took over. (Side note: are all Canadian relievers exactly the same? This sample seems to indicate that).

Axford's 4.06 FIP and 3.79 xFIP indicate there was a fair amount of bad luck in those 2012 statistics, including an absurdly high 19.2 percent HR/FB rate. It's worth noting, however, that Axford also saw his walk rate jump by more than four percent (from a workable 8.2 percent in 2011 to 12.6 last year) and did not see a corresponding increase in his strikeout rate (from 28.2 percent to 30 percent).

Obviously speculating on one or two bad outings is a fool's errand, but there's certainly reason to be concerned for Axford owners, and reason to speculate on Henderson, who has already taken over the ninth-inning duties in Milwaukee once and is poised to do so again should Axford's struggles continue.

Henderson also was unlucky last year, posting a 3.52 ERA but a 1.95 FIP and a 2.73 xFIP. Most of that discrepancy is due to a high BABIP of .352, which should return to Earth this season. His strikeout rate (34.4 percent) and walk rate (9.9 percent) both were very strong.

Contributing to this excellence was a superb swinging-strike rate of 14.9 percent. Oliver sees the strikeout rate dropping a ton, all the way down to 22.9 percent, with a rise in walk rate at the same time, but that seems unlikely without a change somewhere unforeseen (velocity, etc.) and is probably the result of Henderson being a somewhat unique case as a 30-year-old with just 30 innings of major league experience.

Recommendation: Henderson is worth a stash now if you have room, with the understanding that Axford's grasp on the closer's role is not as tenuous as Marmol's was last week. That said, both Axford and Henderson bear watching, and owners should be ready to move if the Brewers make a switch. If the change is made, Henderson can be a solid second-tier option for saves. He's an elite relief option for strikeouts and holds as is.

Eric Sogard | Athletics | 2B | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 1 percent | CBS: 1 percent
YTD: .188/.278/.188 in 18 PA
Oliver Projection: .263/.328/376 in 457 PA

Seth Smith | Athletics | OF | ESPN: 0.1 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 1.0 percent | CBS: 5 percent
YTD: .333/.400/.778 in 10 PA
Oliver Projection: .256/.335/.448 in 487 PA

We've had some good stuff here at THT lately about fantasy platoons, most notably by Scott Spratt and Brad Johnson. For those of us in absurdly deep leagues, my advice last week on three big-name middle infielders who have relatively low ownership rates could be filed in the "Yeah, right!" folder. In leagues like these, sometimes you have to get creative. And that means looking for value absolutely everywhere, including platoons.

Johnson mentioned Smith in his piece, and he's one of my favorite options because:

1. He's widely available.
2. There isn't much guesswork at play with him.
3. I own him.

Smith debuted with the Rockies in 2007 and has exactly 1,900 career major league plate appearances, during which he has posted consistently above-average numbers against right-handed pitchers (.283/.361/.503). If he was able to post that kind of production over a full season against pitchers from both sides, he'd basically be Cespedes last year, and you'd have no hope of finding him anywhere near the waiver wire.

As solid as Smith has been against righties, though, he's been equally bad against left-handed pitchers, to the tune of a .194/.266/.320 triple-slash line. Or, put another way, 2012 Drew Stubbs territory. He's going to be rather useless against lefties (if the A's even have him in the lineup, which they probably won't), but given that two-thirds of major league pitchers are right-handed, this presents an opportunity to add a quality bat to fantasy lineups a few times a week and at very little cost.

Sogard also finds himself in a platoon for the A's in the early going, splitting second-base duties with Scott Sizemore. The fact that he'll see a majority of the at-bats against right-handed pitchers means he could provide sneaky value in the same way that Smith can.

The only problem is he isn't particularly good at hitting. We can pretty much throw out all of Sogard's MLB numbers, given their small sample size (73 games split over three seasons) and the fact that he's had some crazy bad luck for most of them (a .181 BABIP last year).

His minor league stats do little to excite, as well. He's had below-average power at every stop of his career but has posted encouraging walk rates (above 10 percent every year since 2008) and acceptable strikeout rates (less than 11.4 percent every season during the same stretch).

While Sogard is getting playing time at the moment, that's subject to change at a moment's notice. Sogard, Sizemore, Jed Lowrie, Jemile Weeks, and Hiroyuki Nakajima all will be in the mix at some point for two positions. The relative upside for Sogard does not merit wading into such a messy situation. Unless you're desperate. Really, really desperate.

(Hat tip to reader Rafi for the question on Sogard in last week's AL Waiver Wire column.)

Recommendation: Smith is a pretty safe bet to provide average-or-better production against right-handed pitchers and should see plenty of at-bats against them this season. Sogard is a worse bet, in a potentially much more complicated platoon, and should be used only in case of emergencies.

Jose Fernandez | Marlins | SP | ESPN: 9.9 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 30 percent | CBS: 70 percent
YTD: One freaking awesome start
Oliver Projection: 3.42 ERA, 3.04 FIP, 8.19 K/9, 3.55 BB/9 in 74 IP

The 20-year-old's earlier-than-anticipated major league debut has been covered in seemingly every corner of the internet. So here I mostly want to say: what is wrong with you ESPN folks? Which players are actually owned over there? Absurd.

Recommendation: Pick him up, ESPN slackers. All joking aside, there probably will be an innings limit at some point, and Fernandez is 20, so the upside here is somewhat limited. That said, it could be nice to enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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Friday, April 05, 2013

The daily grind: 4-5-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): I thought about giving Zach McAllister a shot, but none of my teams have an opening for streaming yet.

Dan Straily is a solid choice, though like all guys on the waiver wire, he's not without risk. For those in even deeper leagues, Brad Peacock has some upside.

Pitcher (bum): A warm, spring day game at Coors is an invitation to score runs in bunches. And when the starting pitchers are Jeff Francis and Jason Marquis...well you know where I'm going with this.

Apparently my fantasy writing doppleganger likes Liam Hendriks, but I still think he's exploitable for fantasy purposes. So I'm putting money on Chris Davis extending his streak of dominance.

I believe that Kyle Kendrick and Wade Davis mark the first time in 2013 where converted relievers have faced each other. They've both seen success as starters in the past, but they also have exploitable flaws, especially Kendrick (left-handers).

Hitter (power): Seth Smith against Peacock is a decent streaming option. But I'm more excited about Juan Francisco's 70 grade raw power against Scott Feldman.

Meanwhile, I noted yesterday that Matt Joyce should enjoy batting against Kendrick, but he should also enjoy his actual match-up today—McAllister.

Hitter (speed): At some point, Domonic Brown is going to attempt a couple steals. Why not today?

Chris Denorfia and Craig Gentry are more classic choices to swipe a bag.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Trevor Bauer is interesting and prospect-y, although I don't necessarily expect good things tomorrow. If you want to own him, this might be your one shot.

Patrick Corbin is a guy I own outright in one of my mid-depth leagues. So, it suffices to say that I think highly of him. However, a match-up against the Brewers is a tough assignment for the lefty.

I think Chris Tillman can make it through the Twins lineup a couple times without going belly up, don't you?

Pitcher (bum): I generally like tomorrow's pitchers, but I'm definitely selling short on Tommy Hanson.

Jon Garland in Colorado has no chance of working out. Right?

Hitter (power): I'm going to give Adam Lind a few more shots here. I suspect the Blue Jays are thinking much the same thing. Theoretically, he should match-up well against supposedly improved John Lackey.

If I have any understanding of biology, then I am right to think that the love child of Lucas Duda and Ricky Nolasco would be a home run.

It's Jonny Gomes time. J.A. Happ is the perfect match-up for him.

Hitter (speed): Collin Cowgill may swipe a base. Have I mentioned he's a grinder. We like grinders here at The Daily Grind.

Will Venable should be back in the lineup for that tasty Garland match-up

Noteworthy News
Just when you thought Brian Roberts might play 15 games in a row, he went down with an injury. I was starting to think he might be relevant to this column, but no dice K.

Weather watch
The Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, and White Sox draw the cold weather today.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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AL Waiver Wire: Week 2
Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:48am

For one brief moment this week, the Astros were better than the Rangers, Justin Maxwell was the early leader in the American League MVP race, and Bo Porter was the early favorite for Manager of the Year. Up was down, down was up, cats were dogs, dogs were cats.

Then Yu Darvish struck out 200 Astros (approximately, I stopped watching after five innings, like an idiot), came within an out of a perfect game (so I'm told), and order was restored to the universe.

Early season baseball is filled with stories like these every year. It's part of what makes the games fun, and part of what makes the waiver wire in the early going a vast wilderness for me to hyperbolize.

Last week we touched on three recently named starting pitchers. This week? Three sort-of big name American League middle infielders who are widely available.

Stephen Drew | Red Sox | SS | ESPN: 1.6 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 9 percent | CBS: 33 percent
YTD: N/A
Oliver ROS: .243/.320/.381 in 467 plate appearances

We'll start with the bad. Injuries have limited Drew greatly over the past two seasons, with the shortstop playing just 86 games in 2011 and 79 in 2012. His numbers during that time were not very good, and there's no way around that (wOBAs of .315 and .291, respectively). He's also getting a late start to this season, his Age 30 campaign, because of lingering concussion symptoms (an injury for which forecasting recovery time is virtually impossible). This is why owners passed on Drew during drafts this spring, and this is why his ownership levels are so low for a (somewhat) big name player, who should still be in his prime.

The news that Drew went on a rehab assignment Thursday and could be back in Boston by Monday presents owners with a chance to take advantage of a market inefficiency. When Drew is healthy he's a useful player. From 2008-2010, playing in 152, 135 and 151 games, Drew posted wOBAs of .355, .321, and .355. He's provided solid pop, especially at a thin position, and can provide a nice boost in leagues that reward walks (posting rates between 8.2 percent and 11.3 since 2009).

As Marc Normandin pointed out in December, Drew probably will not pepper the Green Monster, given his career pull/center field/opposite field ISO splits of .303/.185/.099, but there is reason to believe his bat can play in Fenway Park. And while the Red Sox lineup is not quite the modern day Murderer's Row it once was, a healthy Drew could rack up RBI and runs at a healthy pace.

Of course all of this depends on whether or not Drew is healthy, and only time will be able to tell that.

Recommendation: He's worth adding now in AL only leagues and deeper mixed leagues that use multiple shortstops or middle infielders. Shallower mixed league owners can take a wait-and-see approach to feel out Drew's health, how much his skill has diminished over the past two years, and what effect Fenway Park will have.

Yunel Escobar | Rays | SS | ESPN: 4.7 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 11 percent | CBS: 39 percent
YTD: .125/.125/.250 in two games
Oliver ROS: .261/.327.351

If injuries are the reason Drew is undervalued right now, the same cannot be said for Yunel Escobar, who basically ran himself out of Toronto last season, after basically running himself out of Atlanta before that. So who stepped up and saw value there? Why, the Rays, of course!

Always searching for any edge, Tampa Bay acquired him from Toronto over the winter for ~~peanuts~~ Derek Dietrich. He's been enigmatic on the field as well, posting wOBAs of .360, .301, .348, and .284 from 2009-12. Of particular concern, however, is the 4.5 percent drop in his walk rate from 2011 to 2012, which Ian Malinowski from D Rays Bay dove into in January.

There's considerable upside here, including help in average, on-base, and possibly HRs (at least relative to the shortstop field). With that, of course, comes considerable risk.

Recommendation: Worth a gamble if you have a need. As long as expectations aren't sky high, he could provide some valuable depth at a position that sorely lacks it.

Gordon Beckham | White Sox | SS | ESPN: 9.1 percent ownership | Yahoo!: 7 percent | CBS: 37 percent
YTD: .200/.333/.200 in two games
Oliver ROS: .247/.312/.376

Full disclosure: Beckham is on this list mostly because he was on my dynasty team after the White Sox made him the eighth overall selection in the 2008 draft. I had him for all of his enticing 2009 rookie season, when he triple slashed .270/.347/.460 in 103 games. His WAR in those 103 games was 2.5, and unbelievably bright things seemed to be on the horizon.

This did not turn out to be the case. His combined WAR in the three years since is a meager 1.9. His batting numbers seem to have bottomed out with remarkably similar 2011 and 2012 lines of .230/.296/.337 and .234/.296/.371.

There's a hint of hope in those 2012 figures, with a 34 point increase in slugging percentage due to a 30 point jump in ISO. He also managed to carve 4.6 percent off his strikeout rate and had a seemingly unlucky BABIP of .254. He's still just 26, and there's talk this spring (again) about a change in batting stance that might help him be more useful.

I'll need to see it to believe it, though.

Recommendation: Beckham provides value in the sense that he's generally healthy, and will get enough playing time to post decent counting statistics. He's real life bad, but fantasy useful in a pinch. Expecting him to be the player he teased us with in 2009 seems increasingly unrealistic, so picking him up hoping for a breakout is something to avoid until he shows something to make those batting stance stories seem believable. Until then he's a capable, if unsexy, injury fill-in.

Popsicle Stick Joke of the Day:

Question: Why did the cookie go to the doctor?
Answer: He was feeling crummy.

You're welcome.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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NL Waiver Wire: Week 2
Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:10am

One of the bonuses of keeping a season-long log of fantasy dumpster diving is the ability to look back on past picks, the players who made good and the projections that were way off. So with an acknowledgment to hindsight’s cruel eye, we’ll check in each week with some of our past guests to see how they’re doing.

Patrick Corbin, perhaps not surprisingly, locked down the D-backs final rotation spot, though we’ll have a better look at his mixed-league upside on Saturday when he makes his first start of the season against Milwaukee. Hyun-Jin Ryu sure looks secure in the Dodgers’ rotation after a strong performance on Tuesday, Jordany Valdespin was relegated to bench duty despite my expectations for a platoon with Collin Cowgill, and Mitchell Boggs, having blown Wednesday’s save, has yet to establish himself as a must-add in Jason Motte’s absence.

Collin Cowgill | New York Mets | OF | 13 percent Yahoo ownership; 13.4 percent ESPN ownership; 25 percent CBS ownership
Oliver ROS: .247 / .305 / .366

It shouldn’t be too hard to resist the temptation of writing about the Mets’ shallow pool of intriguing sleepers, but as a fan, I did want to look at Cowgill, who became a hot pickup after he fought off Valdespin to become a full-time outfielder and parked a grand slam on opening day.

A former Diamondbacks farmhand, Cowgill finished with a .291 / .371 / .470 line in the minors and swiped 30 bases during a breakout Triple-A campaign two years ago in the Pacific Coast League. He finished with a .269 average in his 116 plate appearances for the A’s last year, softening a 23 percent whiff rate with a .336 on-base percentage. In March, Cowgill played well, hitting .300 while launching five home runs, a performance good enough to fend off a playing time challenge from Valdespin.

Chalk it up to my chronic pessimism as a Mets fan, but I’m not yet sold on Cowgill emerging as a mixed-league fantasy option in 2013, especially when factoring in a ballpark that won’t do him any favors and an NL East replete with strong starting pitching. But Cowgill, whose ownership jumped 20 points in CBS this week, is definitely an intriguing upside player to watch as he hits atop the Mets’ order. Oliver sees a .671 OPS with nine home runs and 15 steals, which seems reasonable as a low-end estimate.

Recommendation: Worth a pick up in most NL-only leagues.

Tyson Ross | SP | San Diego Padres | 1 percent Yahoo ownership; 0 percent ESPN ownership; 3 percent CBS ownership
Oliver ROS: 4.50 ERA / 1.491 WHIP / 6.25 K/9

As Andrew Cashner continues to recover from the offseason thumb surgery that limited his playing time during the spring, the Padres have tapped right-hander Ross to be the team’s fifth starter to open the season.

Obviously, fantasy owners want to see Cashner and his mid-90s heat in the rotation as soon as he’s ready, and there’s no reason to believe that San Diego’s front office doesn’t feel the same way. Trouble is, the team also wants to keep Cashner’s innings down this year, so it’s possible he might not be in the rotation until May or June, assuming, of course, he doesn’t get hurt again.

Enter Ross, who had a 2-11 record, 1.81 WHIP and 5.65 K/9 to show for his 73.1 innings last year. A college star in his University of California days, Ross, who turns 26 later this month, became a top prospect for the A’s due to his mid-90s fastball and penchant for getting grounders. Unfortunately, the strikeouts have yet to materialize on the big league level, and difficulties in stranding runners have contributed to a career 4.26 FIP.

His spring, which featured a 1.29 WHIP in 21 innings, was decent enough, I guess, though a 19-to-10 K:BB ratio is not going to cut it in the regular season. Still, Petco, moved-in fences and all, will still favor pitchers, and Ross might be worth a look for owners in deep leagues who need to add a warm body.

Recommendation: Pass in most leagues until he proves he can hack it.

Kyuji Fujikawa | RP | Chicago Cubs | 51 percent Yahoo ownership; 40 percent ESPN ownership; 45 percent CBS ownership
Oliver ROS: 3.33 ERA / 1.22 WHIP / 10.12 K/9

On Monday, Dale Sveum wasted no time in pulling the combustible Carlos Marmol in the ninth inning, eventually calling upon Kyuji Fujikawa, the Cubs’ offseason Japanese import, to record the game’s final out. Three days later, Fujikawa pitched a perfect eighth to set up Chicago’s closer, only to watch him allow two earned runs en route to a shaky save. Marmol, the subject of trade talks all winter, also suffered through a terrible start to last season before settling down in the final two-thirds of the year, and Sveum has, at least as of this writing on Thursday evening, publicly stuck by his closer. That said, how long will Fujikawa stick around on the wires if Marmol blows another save?

Recommendation: If you have the bench space and need saves, grab Fujikawa now.

Chris Heisey | OF | Cincinnati Reds | 3 percent Yahoo ownership; 0.3 percent ESPN ownership; 6 percent CBS ownership
Oliver ROS: .251 / .314 / .410

I don’t have much to add to FanGraphs scribe Dan Wade’s take on why Billy Hamilton, who’s yet to play a game above Double-A, won’t replace Ryan Ludwick during his three-month absence:

Hamilton isn’t even on the 40-man roster, so unless Ludwick heads directly to the 60-day disabled list, the Reds would need to shuffle someone off the roster even as their bullpen pulled yeoman duty in Monday’s extra innings loss to the Angels. This would both start Hamilton’s service clock and burn an option, neither are the end of the world if the Reds were determined that Hamilton was definitely ready to come up, but with that in question, it becomes less palatable.

Instead, welcome Chris Heisey to everyday duty. Dusty Baker has made it clear that Heisey, 28, will get a shot to play everyday, so we’ll see a guy who can smack an occasional home run and steal a base here and there, which could make him attractive in leagues sporting deep outfields. He helped win Thursday’s ballgame with a home run and stole a base earlier this week, so he seems to be off to a good start.

Recommendation: Worth picking up in deeper mixed leagues.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, April 04, 2013

The daily grind: 4-4-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Dillon Gee is the top choice for today, and he might be worth rostering outright. I know I missed my chance at him in a couple leagues.

James McDonald will oppose Travis Wood. Both pitchers are streamable, although I would prefer McDonald.

Pitcher (bum): Bronson Arroyo has a tough first assignment—to squelch the Angels. I have my doubts and will be betting against him later.

The Nationals haven't dominated offensively the way I've expected. Wade LeBlanc is yet another Marlins pitcher who is prone to meltdowns.

The Orioles, Blue Jays, White Sox, and Tigers all have favorable match-ups as well.

Hitter (power): Nolan Reimold has looked pretty sharp at the plate in the two games I watched. He's cheap in daily fantasy and I have hope that he'll move up the lineup.

Chris Parmelee and Vernon Wells both have to overcome chilly weather, but they have the right pitcher match-up to pop a home run (Rick Porcello and Ryan Dempster respectively).

Hitter (speed): Collin Cowgill's a nice well-rounded choice to poach a steal. If you want something a little more leveraged towards steals, let's see if Juan Pierre can slap his way on against Jordan Zimmermann.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): You have a couple stream choices today, but none of them are must-starts.

I happen to like to like Zach McAllister, probably more than I should. The Rays aren't an offensive powerhouse, but they know how to grind out some runs.

Dan Straily has some upside and a match-up against the no-bat Astros should help him. He did not look particularly sharp this spring, so I'm wary. He's opposed by Brad Peacock, whom I could describe the exact same way with the additional caveat that the Astros have to score for him to win.

Pitcher (bum): Liam Hendriks should help the Orioles continue to produce runs.

Wade Davis vs. Kyle Kendrick looks like a bullpen game. And not just because both pitchers are better as relievers.

Another match-up that should produce runs in bunches is Jason Marquis against Jeff Francis at Coors Field.

Hitter (power): You could use Seth Smith and Brandon Moss against Peacock, since both hitters are left-handed.

Scott Feldman doesn't have swing-and-miss stuff and Juan Francisco does well against pitchers he can hit.

Matt Joyce (and left-handers in general) should enjoy Kyle Kendrick.

Hitter (speed): Domonic Brown may be more of a power threat, but I think he's eager to prove he can swipe some bases after leg injuries forced him to play station-to-station in past seasons.

It's a Chris Denorfia day. It's also a Craig Gentry day. Be aware that Ron Washington isn't running the center field platoon strictly on handedness.

Noteworthy news

Hiroki Kuroda is fine after being hit on the hand in the second inning yesterday.

Rafael Soriano does not look poised for a repeat of his historic season after vulturing the win yesterday.

Weather watch

Today it's easier to tell you who has good weather. The Mariners and Athletics will be playing in 60-degree temperatures while the Blue Jays, Indians, Orioles and Rays will have domes protecting them. The rest of the league is looking at a game time temperature between 30 and 50 degrees. There will be lingering showers in Atlanta.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Wednesday, April 03, 2013

The daily grind: 4-3-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:42am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkerers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Alexi Ogando is a promising choice for today. If you're looking for someone less trendy, Clay Buchholz on a chilly New York evening should get the job done statistically.

Pitcher (bum): You have a list to work from today: Ervin Santana, Tim Lincecum, Philip Humber, Kevin Correia, Kevin Slowey, and Ubaldo Jimenez all have meltdown potential. It's going to be a tough day for Daily Fantasy as a result.

I mentioned Roy Halladay yesterday, but the possibility of rain makes him a poor choice today.

Hitter (power): Garrett Jones, Brandon Moss and Adam Lind are three that I'm targeting today.

Hitter (speed): Will Venable and Eduardo Nunez have multi-steal capabilities. They're both a little challenged with reaching base, so we'll see how that works out. It's probably too early to be playing steals-only options.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Travis Wood is opposed by James McDonald. Both pitchers are generally available, facing mediocre lineups, and have a bit of upside.

I'm a bigger fan of Dillon Gee against the Padres. Gee was on the cusp of becoming a fantasy regular before his injury last season.

Pitcher (bum): It's another day with a deep list of exploitable pitchers.

The Angels have a pretty potent lineup and Bronson Arroyo is pretty mediocre. However, if you prefer a veteran who's more past his prime, try Brett Myers against the Blue Jays. His starts are always a gamble.

I also like the Nationals against Wade LeBlanc, the Orioles versus Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona), the White Sox against Jeremy Guthrie, and the Tigers against Mike Pelfrey.

Hitter (power): There's no platoon to his advantage, but you should look into Nolan Reimold for tomorrow.

Chris Parmelee shouldn't be over-matched by Rick Porcello.

Vernon Wells against Ryan Dempster has the makings for a long ball and three pop outs.

Hitter (speed): Andy Dirks could mix in a home run or a steal against Guthrie. Collin Cowgill might be a little more likely for a steal given his proclivity for max effort.

Weather watch

The Cubs and Pirates have expected game temperatures in the 30s, while several teams will play outdoors in the 40s, including the Tigers, Twins, Red Sox, Yankees, Marlins, Nationals, Angels, Reds, Padres and Mets. There is a chance of rain for the Phillies vs. Braves game, although it will probably come later in the game. Tomorrow is expected to be a soaker in Atlanta.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Who’s next?
Posted by Derek Ambrosino at 3:04am

Saves speculation is a critical part of winning most fantasy leagues, as inheriting a closer gig is the most immediate way for a player to gain a profound boost in value. So, periodically, I’m going to chime in here listing my five most desired non-closer relievers.

While many top-flight middle relievers can have value to a team, their skill sets and production levels are largely replaceable on the wire. It is the path to closing that most significantly differentiates similar options. Here are a few things I consider when evaluating this.

Stability and skill of current closer. This is the most formidable obstacle facing a middle-reliever looking to close: Is the current closer likely to lose his job because of poor performance?

Skill level of middle reliever. Is this player actually better than, or at least comparable to, the player currently closing? If he gets the job, can he keep it? Is the player good enough to push for consideration as a closer even if current closer merely falters, but does not full-on implode? Is the player good enough to have value to your team without closing?

Injury history of current closer. Injuries are tough to predict, but all things being equal a pitcher behind Huston Street is more likely to inherit a job than one behind Jonathan Papelbon.

Competition within bullpen for inheritance. At times, a team may have a shaky closing situation, but it is unclear who is next in line for the job. The best situation for a would-be closer is to be the clear, single successor.

Likelihood of trades. This will become more important as the season progresses. If the incumbent is a trade candidate, that boosts the value the player next in line.

Ranking these players at any given time is not an exact science, so I look at these posts as an opportunity to promote discussion. Also as a disclaimer, I’m avoiding players on the disabled list (i.e., Ryan Madson). I will include a player currently involved in closer-by-committee situations only if I see his emergence as a singular owner of the job as likely. Remember, this column is about players most likely to see a drastic boost in value, not just options to vulture a handful of saves.

And, away we go.

1. Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa averaged almost 12 K/9 in his career in Japan and hasn’t posted an ERA above 2.01 in the last eight seasons. Carlos Marmol is a disaster waiting to happen and failed to nail down the first save opportunity of the Chicago Cubs season. This is likely to be the first non-injury-related closing change this season.

2.Kenley Jansen. I know Brandon League has a big contract and Jansen has some heart issues, but my impression is that people are overthinking this one. The Dodgers are trying to win and they don’t care about money; talent will win out sooner than later. Additionally, Jansen’s ridiculous strikeout numbers make him among the most valuable non-closers.

3. Ryan Cook. I really like Ryan Cook. Grant Balfour is a quality pitcher, but at the age of 35, I don’t totally trust his health or performance. On the other hand, Cook is an emerging bullpen stud.

4. David Robertson The man with the high socks is stuck behind the greatest closer in the history of the game, but Mariano Rivera is 43 and coming off an injury. Rafael Soriano is in Washington, and Robertson is slated to be the man if Rivera goes down again. Robertson also has a multi-year record of production worthy of mixed-league ownership even without a closing gig.

5. David Hernandez. Here’s a relatively unknown K-monster with a smidge of closer experience situated behind a very good incumbent with an injury history. J.J. Putz has shed a bit of his injury-risk reputation over the past few seasons, so it’s possible that I am overestimating his risk, but Hernandez is a good bet for 85–100 punch-outs out of the bullpen regardless, so that’s a pretty solid base to fall back on.

Derek Ambrosino aspires to one day, like Dan Quisenberry, find a delivery in his flaw, you can send him questions, comments, or suggestions at digglahhh AT yahoo DOT com.

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Tuesday, April 02, 2013

The daily grind: 4-2-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:43am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Hyun-Jin Ryu is still somewhat available at 52 percent owned. He started the spring rough but settled down to look like a respectable pitcher. The Giants aren't much of an offensive test, so he should survive the outing.

Pitcher (bum): Justin Masterson and Jarrod Parker are both pitchers who usually wouldn't find their way into the "Bum" section, but they face lineups with substantial power threats. In Masterson's case, the Jays can trot out some potent right-handed sluggers and some on-base guys to bat before them.

Jorge de la Rosa is someone I'm not willing to bet on going out of the gate. The Brewers lineup is stout and will pose an immediate challenge for De La Rosa.

Hitter (power): Justin Smoak, Mitch Moreland, and Adam Lind are all widely available and have favorable match-ups.

Hitter (speed): Leonys Martin gets his first shot at Grind eligibility.

One of Emilio Bonifacio or Maicer Izturis should start at second base. Does anyone know how that platoon is expected to unfold?

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Alexi Ogando's ownership is rather high at 63 percent. If he's still available in your league, a match-up against Philip Humber and the Astros should spell a win if nothing more.

Clay Buchholz is a forgotten man. He'll face a forgotten Yankees lineup tomorrow. Did I say "forgotten?" I meant "terrible."

Pitcher (bum): Tomorrow has a hell of a list for exploitable pitchers. Ervin Santana, Humber, Kevin Correia, Kevin Slowey, and Ubaldo Jimenez will all take the hill against potent lineups. Target available players from the White Sox, Blue Jays, Nationals, Tigers and Rangers.

While you're at it, go ahead and gamble against Tim Lincecum (vs. Dodgers) and Roy Halladay (vs. Braves).

Hitter (power): With that list above, you should have a lot from which to choose. Head over to the in-depth spreadsheet (linked above) and take your pick.

I like Juan Francisco against Halladay, but I'd also take another spin with Adam Lind and Mitch Moreland.

Garrett Jones' power bat versus Edwin Jackson's power fastball is one of those match-ups that should have a "true" outcome.

You could also try Seth Smith and Brandon Moss. See, so many options!

Hitter (speed): Will Venable rightly spends a lot of time on the waiver wire, but he also swipes a lot of bases against right-handed pitchers like Matt Harvey.

I'm going to keep calling Eduardo Nunez until he has a two-steal game and vindicates me. It's not like you can pick up a better shortstop.

News from yesterday

Chris Heisey will be a starting outfielder while Ryan Ludwick recovers from his dislocated shoulder.

Weather watch

The Indians, Blue Jays, Rockies and Brewers are playing in cold weather again. Usually that means that the pitchers will outperform their talent level since it's very hard to hit while cold. It takes a certain level of relaxation and rhythm to hit, and freezing temperatures interrupt both. The AL pairings even could see some snow.

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Monday, April 01, 2013

The daily grind: 4-1-13
Posted by Brad Johnson at 5:36am

The Daily Grind provides daily match-up advice for tinkers and daily fantasy players. I welcome advice to help make this column more effective, including notice of impending weather events, new injuries, and changes to platoon situations. Ownership rates are from Yahoo!

The Fanduel picks are a mixture of Daily League specific advice and information for the more typical fantasy owner. Use the team-by-team TDG eligible players spreadsheet for more detailed information.

Today's grind

The Fanduel Daily League Players of the Day are:

Pitcher (to start): Opening Day isn't really the time to find freely available pitchers to stream. Vance Worley could benefit from a very cold match-up against the Tigers, but he would also be the top guy to exploit if not for the weather.

Jon Lester is heavily owned, but I'm also targeting him in daily leagues for his match-up against the Yankees. He had a huge spring after coming off a poor 2012 season.

Pitcher (bum): Ditto the above, although there are a few bums out in the open today. Ricky Nolasco never became the pitcher he was supposed to and now he draws a tough Opening Day match-up against the Nationals. There is possible rain in the forecast, which could lead to an early call to the bullpen.

Any single Edinson Volquez game might as well be done by a random number generator. The Mets lineup is quite bad, but they may need only patience to score a few.

Jhoulys Chacin was a favorite sleeper of mine last season, but the gamble did not pay off. This is another game where I would heavily favor the Brewers lineup if the game time temperature wasn't projected to hover around freezing.

Hitter (power): Lucas Duda has the power to take a mistake deep. That team is carrying a lot of marginally talented outfielders, so it will take time to figure out how they'll be used.

Domonic Brown is my pick of the day, but he's been a trendy late round/wire selection leading up to the season.

Hitter (speed): Carlos Gomez and Norichika Aoki would be my top picks if they were widely available. I still expect their ownership rates to reduce to around the 50 percent level.

If you really only care about steals, Eduardo Nunez can contribute them. The only other thing he contributes is shortstop eligibility, so take this recommendation with a grain of salt.

Tomorrow's grind

Pitcher (to start): Hyun-Jin Ryu is talented enough that he should be able to outperform his opponents until they get better scouting reports.The Giants aren't exactly an offensive powerhouse.

Pitcher (bum): Justin Masterson is a fine pitcher, but I'm excited about the Blue Jays' new lineup. Jose Reyes, a healthy Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion should spell HUGE offensive numbers.

Jorge de la Rosa could be a fine sleeper this year, but I'll take the Brewers over a guy who has spent most of the last two seasons on the disabled list.

Call me crazy (you will), but I think the Mariners lineup is going to be surprisingly powerful this year, at least in regard to home runs. Jarrod Parker had some home run problems this spring and I could see new additions like Kendrys Moralesand Michael Morse exploiting that tomorrow.

Hitter (power): Justin Smoak is another guy who might like batting against Parker tomorrow.

I expect to be calling Adam Lind's name fairly frequently. He matches up well against mid-tier or worse right-handed pitchers, yet he's so bad against lefties that it's hard to roster him.

Mitch Moreland is also a fan of mid-tier righties, and Lucas Harrell qualifies as one of those.

Hitter (speed): Maicer Izturis or Emilio Bonifacio should start at second base and provide value on the bases. If someone could clue me in as to how Toronto will be handling that platoon, I would appreciate it.

Lucas Harrell's first start is my first opportunity to try out Leonys Martin.

Reliever watch
It's Opening Day!

Weather watch
A few teams are playing in cold conditions. After training in Florida and Arizona, these temperatures could lead to some unexpected performances. The Cubs, Pirates, Angels and Reds will deal with temperatures below 40 degrees while the Tigers, Twins, Brewers, Rockies, Royals and White Sox will not see any temperatures above freezing.

I went to college in Minnesota. We didn't play if the temperature was below about 35 degrees. It's not a good way to play baseball...

Follow Brad on Twitter @baseballAteam. Email him at pitchin432 AT Yahoo.com

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Saturday, March 30, 2013

Looking for writers for The Hardball Times Fantasy
Posted by Nick Fleder at 3:22am

Dear all,

In light of the fairly recent merger between The Hardball Times and FanGraphs' RotoGraphs, the leadership at both sites has plans to better define the two sites as their own separate entities, while simultaneously increasing the distribution of content between them. Let me explain in further detail.

Our vision is that The Hardball Times will be a site of big-picture writing, strategically focused and research driven; RotoGraphs will continue its up-to-the-minute player analysis, roster-driven, mostly. Now, let it be said immediately that this is not a hard-and-fast classification: you'll still see some short form pieces on THT, and will see some research projects at FanGraphs. But this new system is designed so projects can run across platforms so writers from both sites can contribute more dynamically.

If you are interested in writing research-driven pieces or series, or heavily strategic articles (draft strategy, team makeup, many-year trends, long-term thoughts and observations, etc.), please shoot me an email at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).

Stay tuned for more details. And most of all: good luck drafting.

Cheers for now,
Nick Fleder & The Hardball Times Fantasy Staff

Nick can be reached for questions, comments, or concerns via email: nick.fleder AT gmail DOT com.

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Friday, March 29, 2013

AL Waiver Wire: Week 1
Posted by Jack Weiland at 2:40am

Ah, spring. Endless possibility. Every team is in first place. The glass is half full. Yada, yada, yada.

For many fans, this time of year is an unbearable period of nothing more than waiting for the real games to begin. Most roster debates have been settled, many for quite some time, and teams are making their way home for the start of the season next week. For fantasy leaguers, however, this time of year can make or break what happens in September. A keen eye that can identify pop-up players before others may be the difference between winning and losing down the line. Being asleep at the wheel, on the other hand, can set in motion a chain of events too horrible to really discuss.

Too dramatic? Yes? Too bad, it's my column and I had to see if you were paying attention.

This week we feature three players who were (somewhat surprisingly) named to their respective rotations.

Brandon Maurer | Seattle Mariners | SP | ESPN: 0.5 percent ownership, Yahoo: NA, CBS: 13 percent
Oliver projection: 90 IP, 5-4, 3.92 ERA, 3.89 FIP

It's safe to say if Taijuan Walker won a spot in the Mariners' rotation this spring, everyone would have noticed. Ditto that, to a lesser extent, for Danny Hultzen and James Paxton. The thing is, they did not. Brandon Maurer did.

Back in November, Jeff Sullivan touched on Maurer in a great piece about stupid labels like "The Big Three." The gist: Maurer is pretty good. Maybe not quite as good as those other guys, but labeling "The Big Three" muddies the waters when other players come into the picture, and doesn't serve any practical function.

There are good takes on Maurer making the team over at Minor League Ball and Lookout Landing. John Sickels sums it up best:

The biggest problem has always been simple health; it has never been about velocity, movement, or pitchability.
Baseball America offered similarly high praise earlier this offseason, stating Maurer gives the Mariners "yet another pitching prospect with frontline potential" in its 2013 Prospect Handbook.

As a California high schooler, Maurer pitched in the same rotation as Pirates prospect Gerrit Cole. He was a 23rd round draft pick in 2008, but he more or less fell off the map as elbow and shoulder problems limited him to six games in 2010 and 13 games in 2011. Last year, though, in what was technically his age-21 season (his birthday is two days after the cutoff), he posted strong numbers at Double-A, including a 3.20 ERA, 117 strikeouts and 48 walks in 137.2 innings.

The common expectation entering spring training was that he would begin the year in Triple-A, a level he has not yet reached. But the combination of his effectiveness this spring (22 strikeouts in 20 innings), and the lack thereof from others (Erasmo Ramirez, who was once Jon Garland, who was once Jeremy Bonderman) means he will break camp with the big club, and as the No. 4 starter, to boot.

The bottom line is the guy can pitch. He has talent, including a mid-90s fastball and as many as three other major league caliber pitches of varying quality. He's healthy, and he's coming off a very impressive spring, where he beat out strong competition for a job pitching in what has been a pitcher's park (although with the fences moving in, to what extent that will continue is open for debate).

Recommendation: In dynasty formats, he's a strong buy. In deep AL only leagues, he's certainly worth a flier, especially for his debut next Thursday in Oakland. In mixed leagues, a wait-and-see approach might be more appropriate, but it also might cause owners to miss out on a pop-up player with significant potential.

J.A. Happ | Toronto Blue Jays | SP | ESPN: 0.2 percent ownership, Yahoo: 4 percent, CBS: 10 percent
Oliver pProjection: 152 IP, 9-8, 3.92 ERA, 3.74 FIP

The biggest bombshell this week, without a doubt, was the Blue Jays' decision to bust former ace Ricky Romerodown to Single-A ball. Romero was solidly effective from 2009-2011, making the All-Star team two years ago, but was beyond bad last season (in case you hadn't heard). His 5.77 ERA was the worst in the entire league among qualified starters, and his 6.17 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.22 walks per nine innings helped give him a barely-above-replacement-level WAR of 0.2.

So perhaps it should not come as a great surprise that Toronto feels a Ricky Romero-less roster gives it a better chance of winning in 2013, at least until the team figures out whatever the hell is wrong with him. The demotion to Single-A is more about keeping him in a climate where he won't get rained out, but it's still a steep fall for the guy who toed the rubber each of the past two Opening Days.

Happ is now an intriguing character heading into his age-30 season. His ERA, FIP and xFIPs have oscilated between the high threes and high fours during stints as a starter and reliever with the Phillies, Astros and Blue Jays. He seems to be trending in the right direction, though.

Last season he improved his strikeout percentage for the fourth straight season (from 17.4 percent in 2009, to 18.7 percent in 2010, to 19.2 percent in 2011, to a robust 23 percent last year), and cut three percent off his walk rate (from 11.9 percent in 2011 to 8.9 percent in 2012). His velocity is up across the board, averaging 90.5 miles per hour on his fastball last season and he also managed to generate more swings outside the strike zone, and more swings and misses than at any point in his career (31.1 percent and 9.5 percent, respectively).

Recommendation: There's no telling when Romero will reappear, and the rotation in Toronto is certainly crowded, but Happ was sneaky good last season, and could provide a nice boost to owners searching for early-season starting pitcher depth.

Dylan Axelrod | Chicago White Sox | SP | ESPN: 0.0 percent ownership, Yahoo: 0.0 percent, CBS: 1 percent
Oliver projection: 139 IP, 9-6, 3.62 ERA, 3.48 FIP

Axelrod debuted briefly with the White Sox in 2011 and threw 51 innings for the team last year, split between the rotation and bullpen. He's probably better suited for the latter, but will keep a spot in the White Sox rotation while John Danks gets up to speed.

Although you'd be hard pressed to find a glowing scouting report about his stuff (which features a high 80s fastball), it's interesting to note that Oliver is more optimistic about Axelrod than about either Maurer or Happ. It's also interesting that, lacking premium stuff, he's had healthy swinging strike rates of 9.5 percent and 10.1 percent during his two stints in the majors. The 27-year-old's 5.47 ERA, 5.04 FIP, and 4.72 xFIP from last season leave a lot to be desired, though, and there isn't much to suggest he was unlucky.

Recommendation: With limited upside, and a definitive end date to his status as a starter, it's probably safe to avoid Axelrod unless Danks gets pushed back deeper into the summer. Even then, his game is all about locating pitches where he wants them, and choosing those pitches well. I certainly wouldn't want him putting balls on a tee for Miguel Cabrera in US Cellular Field, but if you're streaming pitchers, or in need of a spot start, there are worse options. Probably.

POPSICLE STICK JOKE OF THE WEEK
I love stupid jokes, and this is the best way to start your Friday (don't fight it, I'm right), so here goes:

Question: What kind of band plays snappy music?
Answer: A rubber band.

You're welcome.

Jack Weiland lives in overcast Jamaica Plain, Massachusetts and may be reached at jackweiland{at}gmail{dot}com, and followed on Twitter @jackweiland.

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NL Waiver Wire: Week 1
Posted by Karl de Vries at 2:28am

Another year, another trip down into the fantasy silver mine, a prospecting tour that endeavors to dig up the National League’s hidden gems, best buys and underpriced jewels. If you’re a returning customer to this column, then you know the procedure: Each week, we look at a handful of players who are sitting on the open market in too many leagues, those would-be fantasy contributors blessed with the talent and playing time to make a significant splash—if only they had a home.

As the 2013 season dawns and fantasy owners take stock of new faces and wait for position battles to conclude, here are a number of interesting players who are likely available in your league.

Patrick Corbin | Arizona Diamondbacks | SP | 1 percent Yahoo ownership; 0.1 percent ESPN ownership
Oliver ROS: 4.13 ERA / 1.367 WHIP / 6.58 K/9

Let’s start with a broad statement: The Diamondbacks, blessed with the likes of Corbin, Randall Delgado and Tyler Skaggs, aren’t hurting for a fifth starter with upside in 2013. Trouble is, with just four days to go before they play the season’s first game, manager Kirk Gibson is mum on whether Corbin or Delgado, who both continue to pitch in spring training, will get the first crack at the job.

Corbin, 23, is probably the leading candidate as of this writing. The left-hander logged 107 innings and made 17 starts last year, posting a 4.54 ERA (4.00 FIP) with a 7.2 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. He’s outpitched Delgado this spring, averaging nearly a strikeout per inning and coming off a strong performance last Saturday in which he allowed two runs on three hits in five innings. If you take away a bad inning against the Royals on March 6, his spring ERA is under two.

Assuming Gibson taps Corbin, look for him to build upon his 2012 stats, when an inflated HR/FB rate and BABIP conspired to boost his ERA. I wouldn’t expect lights-out production, but I could see Corbin outdoing his Oliver projections by a tad and becoming a useful fantasy pitcher on a team that should provide him with opportunities at wins. The Diamondbacks, with an off day on Thursday, probably wouldn’t use their fifth starter in the first week, but if Corbin is the man, his ownership numbers will shoot up in plenty of leagues.

Recommendation: Keep an eye out in case Corbin is not the fifth starter, but he’d be an immediate add in all NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues.

Jordany Valdespin | New York Mets | OF / 2B | 1 percent Yahoo ownership; 0.4 percent ESPN ownership
Oliver ROS: .264 / .311 / .390

I’ll say this: Valdespin is the kind of player you want to cheer for. He’s got flair, he’s got a bit of a brash streak in him, and in all-too-brief flashes last year, showed off the kind of athleticism that says “upside guy” in a ballplayer.

Unfortunately, reality—in the form of underwhelming plate discipline numbers and an inability to walk—has kept Valdespin from making good on his promise in his rookie year. But he was hitting .323/.371/ .538 in 21 spring games entering Thursday’s action, and can add steals for a fantasy owner.

Ultimately, what might be most intriguing about Valdespin is his position eligibility. He played 16 games at second base last year, not enough for most leagues entering 2013, but with Daniel Murphy recovering from an intercostal strain, it’s possible that manager Terry Collins could use Valdespin in the infield occasionally. Murphy has begun appearing in spring action and says he’ll be ready for Opening Day, so I’d be slightly bearish on Valdespin adding another position in the immediate term.

Meanwhile, in center field, where he’ll play the bulk of his games to start the season, he’ll likely sit against lefties in a platoon with Colin Cowgill.

Oliver is a bit optimistic on Valdespin, as it expects 29 steals to go along with a .264 average, 11 homers and 69 runs batted in. Such production, coupled with the allure of positional eligibility, could make Valdespin a serviceable fantasy option in 2013.

Recommendation: Worth a look for owners who need steals in NL-only leagues.

Hyun-Jin Ryu | Los Angeles Dodgers | SP | 37 percent Yahoo / 19.5 percent ESPN ownership
Oliver ROS: n/a

I’m not a scout, and thus, I don’t have much to add to Ryu’s scouting reports, some of which you can read here, here and here. I’ll simply say this: the Dodgers, a team that could very well contend for a World Series title this year, believe Ryu is worth a $36 million, six-year contract, which leads me to think there’s something about this guy that makes him a fantasy target. In a perfect world, assuming I had the space on my roster, sure, I’d pick this guy up and see what happens.

But here’s the thing: How certain is it that Ryu will have a spot in the starting rotation? Josh Beckett and Chris Capuano’s arms haven’t fallen off yet, Aaron Harang is still hanging around, Chad Billingsley seems to be returning soon from a finger injury and Ted Lilly still receives paychecks from the Dodgers organization. Assuming Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett and Zack Greinke, inflamed elbow and all, are locked in for three slots, that leaves five starting pitchers for three spots.

We’ll start with Lilly, who’s coming off shoulder surgery and has appeared in just four spring games, posting abysmal numbers in the process. Call me defeatist, but I just don’t see the 37-year-old having much of a place in the Dodgers’ rotation, certainly not at the season’s outset.

What about Harang, who gave the team nearly 180 innings last year? Manager Don Mattingly is on record saying he doesn’t see the burly right-hander as a bullpen arm, though a rough-and-tumble spring didn’t do much to help his cause as a starter. Consider him a man in search of a starting gig for the time being. Capuano? At last check, his chances don’t seem to be all that great to crack the rotation.

Ryu is scheduled to take the ball on April 2, a decision influenced in part by Billingsley’s roster logistics. But, barring some kind of disaster, I’d say it’s a safe bet that he’ll hang around in the rotation for the long run while the Dodgers trade away or banish to the bullpen some of their excess arms.

Recommendation: Worth a pickup in mixed leagues.

Mitchell Boggs | St. Louis Cardinals | SP | 54 percent Yahoo ownership / 25.3 percent ESPN ownership
Oliver ROS: 3.10 ERA / 1.205 WHIP / 6.94 K/9

Obviously, if you’re in a tight league and were betting on Jason Motte to hold down a relief role, you’ve already picked up Boggs as a handcuff. So I guess my question is: How long will you have to roll with this guy?

What we know for sure: Motte, 30, has been diagnosed with a flexor muscle strain—considered a slight tear of the tendon—in his elbow, and a disabled list stint is likely. I’m not a doctor, but this doesn’t sound good.

Just in case, let’s say Boggs is the closer for the foreseeable future. If so, he’d bring four career saves to the job, all of which stem from a brief stint in early 2011 when he took over from Ryan Franklin to be the Cardinals’ closer. Back then, Boggs was burned so badly that that he was demoted to Triple-A three weeks after taking the job. Obviously, that’s an experience from which Boggs can learn, and there’s no reason to think the 29-year-old hasn’t matured a bit since then.

At the back end of the Cardinals’ pen, Boggs will bring mid-90s heat to go along with a slider and occasional change-up, which helped him post solid numbers last year (4-1, 34 holds, 2.21 ERA). But I have to wonder whether a .245 BABIP (more than 50 points below his career average) and lofty 82.4 percent strand rate will conspire to bring those numbers down to earth, closer’s role or not.

Boggs is talented, and in a new season, one might as well be optimistic. But if he was headed for a regression in 2013 as Motte’s caddy, fantasy owners shouldn’t look at him as a bullpen savior now that he’s stepping up to the top spot to start the year.

Recommendation: A worthwhile pickup in NL-only leagues and deeper mixed leagues, but not a must-own until he gets some saves under his belt.

Karl de Vries is a New Jersey-based writer and journalist who prefers following fantasy baseball to watching his hapless Mets embarrass themselves on TV every night. He can be reached at karl[dot]rotodiamond[at]gmail.com or followed on Twitter at @Karl_de_Vries.

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Thursday, March 28, 2013

Creating your own platoons
Posted by Scott Spratt at 2:45am

The Hardball Times has had some tremendous articles on platoons over the last few weeks. Bojan Koprivica wrote a three-part series that you can read here, here, and here, and Brad Johnson outlined some predictable real-baseball platoons that you can replicate in fantasy here. Teams like the Rays and the Athletics make it easy. Half of their lineups consist of platooned players, and so if you are looking for that advantage in leagues with daily lineups and sufficient bench spots, you can just mirror their starting lineups in your own. However, just because many other teams do not employ platoons does not mean that you cannot create fantasy platoons of their players.

Last season, right-handed pitchers started 68 percent of all games. As an example, let’s say that I have two batters from two different teams that I wish to platoon against right-handed pitchers. To make the estimate easy, let’s assume that each hitter plays on the same days as the other but in different games, Game A and Game B. If we assume that the handedness of pitchers in each game on a given day are independent events, then the probability that either or both hitters will face a right-handed starter equals one minus the probability that neither hitter faces a right-handed starter:

P(A(RHP) or B(RHP)) = 1 – P(A(LHP) and B(LHP) = 1 – (0.32 * 0.32) = 0.90

With two batters, I have a 90 percent chance of having at least one of the two enjoying a favorable matchup against a right-handed pitcher. If my bench is really deep, I could even add a third platoon option that plays in Game C:

P(A(RHP) or B(RHP) or C(RHP) = 1 – P(A(LHP) and B(LHP) and C(LHP)) = 1 – (0.32 * 0.32 * 0.32) = 0.98

With three batters, I have a 98 percent chance of having at least one hitter facing a right-handed starter.

The reason such a platoon can be so effective in fantasy is that owners frequently overspend relative to expected production on hitters versus pitchers. There are several reasons that makes some sense. First, pitchers are more likely to suffer an injury. Second, pitchers are easy to stream to take advantage of match-ups against poor offensive opponents and pitcher’s parks. Still, if everyone in your league shares that mentality, elite hitters will have severe inflation, and you will need to play backward, so to speak, to capitalize.

This exact scenario played out for me before the 2012 season in the inaugural draft of my Ottoneu linear weights league. For those who are unfamiliar with the format, linear weights attempt to assign points for events that match their value in terms of run expectancy in real baseball. But, really, the specifics of the scoring don’t matter. All you need to platoon hitters is a league with daily lineups.

In last year’s draft, elite hitters were selling for 10 percent and more above my price sheet. Some owners believe that you should allow each auction to set tier prices and then look for relative bargains in the tiers based on your own preferences. I do not. To me, my price sheet represents the fair value of every player I deem is above the replacement level based on the league format. Every dollar spent over my prices or spent on a player not on my sheet represents a dollar of discount I can capture in another player. For that reason, I am particularly susceptible to a pitcher-heavy team because I always let the preferences of other owners dictate my budget allocation.

In this case, I ended up with a staff of Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia, and David Price and a bullpen of Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, Kenley Jansen, Glen Perkins, Chris Perez, and Jim Johnson for basically half of my $400 budget. I kept all of those pitchers except for Johnson, who I traded in-season. However, I lost my one impact outfielder, Adam Jones, to arbitration—Ottoneu allows owners to vote off a player from each team, and he was best value selection in 2012. I was left with a handful of inexpensive outfield keepers in Shane Victorino, Garrett Jones, and Tyler Colvin, a skeleton crew of players with clear splits. With most of my money tied up in keepers at other positions and with plenty of bench slots, an outfield platoon was clearly my best bet.

For a platoon to be worthwhile, it needs to replicate the production of starter-caliber players, trading bench spots for the cost savings. However, those costs savings only exist if a player’s platoon value is hidden. Sure, you can platoon a couple of players with small splits, but those players tend to be more expensive since they can be used every day. The value picks tend to either platoon in real life or to have more dramatic splits that depress their overall numbers.

I wanted to find some outfield candidates to target, and so I calculated the points per plate appearance for batters versus both left and right-handed pitchers from 2010-2012. All of the at-bat events were simple to handle, and I distributed stolen bases and caught stealings based on the ratio of plate appearances against each pitcher hand. I also included a minimum of 200 plate appearances versus right-handed pitchers over that time frame.

I cannot simply sort by points per plate appearance versus right-handed pitchers and pick out the best ones because, even though I plan to use these platoon players only in games started by right-handed pitchers, they will still face some number of left-handed relievers in those games. Therefore, I first calculated how often left-handed and switch-hitters faced left and right-handed pitchers in games started by a right-hander in 2012.

Fortunately, the ratios were fairly consistent for all players. On average, a left-handed hitter faces a right-handed pitcher in 88.7 percent of his plate appearances and a switch-hitter does the same in 90.5 percent of his plate appearances in a game started by a right-handed pitcher.

Using those two averages, I calculated the combined points per plate appearances for left-handed and switch-hitters in games started by a right-handed pitcher based on their production facing each handed pitcher from 2010-2012. I also included a column of the discrepancy between points per plate appearances versus right-handed and left-handed pitchers. Here are some interesting names, bookended by the overall points per game of select players.

Tier 1 Points Per Plate Appearance, 2010-2012:

Player Hand LHP PA RHP PA PointsPerPA LHP PointsPerPA
- RHP PointsPerPA

Mike Trout 1.68

Justin Morneau L 347 571 1.66 0.69

Shin-Soo Choo L 458 874 1.62 0.87

Brandon Moss L 63 260 1.60 0.51

Joe Mauer L 453 772 1.57 0.56

Andre Ethier L 417 786 1.57 0.91

Carl Crawford L 266 522 1.53 0.52

Buster Posey 1.51

As you can tell based on the bookends of Mike Trout and Buster Posey, these guys are the elite platoon options. As such, all of them play every day in real baseball and will fetch the price of their non-platoon peers in an auction. That said, both Morneau and Moss are fairly cheap in most leagues—though keep in mind Moss has the smallest sample—and Choo and Ethier may be cheap enough to deploy in a platoon, where they go from solid to elite.

Tier 2 Points Per Plate Appearance, 2010-2012:

Player Hand LHP PA RHP PA PointsPerPA LHP PointsPerPA
- RHP PointsPerPA

Andrew McCutchen 1.46

Luke Scott L 209 652 1.45 0.66

Anthony Rizzo L 107 261 1.43 0.80

Wilson Betemit B 184 507 1.39 0.56

Pedro Alvarez L 281 691 1.34 0.54

Matthew Joyce L 132 591 1.33 0.80

Lance Berkman B 112 466 1.31 0.78

John Jaso L 111 654 1.30 0.87

Garrett Jones L 311 858 1.30 0.65

Ryan Doumit B 309 675 1.29 0.57

David DeJesus L 222 754 1.28 0.65

Pablo Sandoval 1.27

For the most part, the next set of players are fairly inexpensive. I was able to buy Joyce and keep Jones at a combined $7, and I would have done more if more of the names on this list were outfielders. For owners in two-catcher leagues, take note that Jaso, Doumit, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia of the third tier could be combined into an above-average platoon for very little cost.

Tier 3 Points Per Plate Appearance, 2010-2012:

Player Hand LHP PA RHP PA PointsPerPA LHP PointsPerPA
- RHP PointsPerPA

Chase Headley 1.26

Seth Smith L 135 704 1.24 0.98

Will Venable L 135 780 1.23 0.51

Eric Chavez L 49 386 1.22 1.22

Jason Kipnis L 241 431 1.21 0.58

Adam Lind L 241 725 1.20 1.08

Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 76 402 1.15 0.65

Dewayne Wise L 83 274 1.14 0.51

Derek Jeter 1.14

Tier 3 is a bit less useful from a practical standpoint, but not because of their lesser point totals. These guys have still outproduced players like Derek Jeter of the past three seasons per plate appearance in games started by a right-hander. However, Smith and Venable are in real-baseball platoons, which make them obvious to other owners that want fantasy platoons. For players in deeper leagues or in AL- or NL-only leagues, DeWayne Wise and Eric Chavez may be worth a buck or two at the end of an auction. If they find the playing time, they can be useful players versus right-handers.

In the end, I netted Garrett Jones, Tyler Colvin, Matt Joyce, and Will Venable for a total of $11 to cover my fourth and fifth outfield spots. As a basis of comparison, Nelson Cruz sold for $11. I had to forfeit some bench slots I could have used on prospects or pitchers with upside, but with an elite staff and a team ready to win now, I believe it will be worthwhile.

Scott was named Newcomer of the Year by the Fantasy Sports Writers Association for his fantasy football writing at Pro Football Focus. In addition, he contributes to ESPN Insider as a research associate for Baseball Info Solutions. You can reach him on Twitter.

	Totals					Roto Points
	R	HR	RBI	Avg.	SB	R	HR	RBI	Avg.	SB	Total
Team A	989	245	966	0.272	179	3	3	2	2	3	13
Team B	923	207	1017	0.29	176	2	2	3	3	2	12
Team C	888	190	931	0.268	154	1	1	1	1	1	5

Name	2013 Y! ADP	2012 Y! Rank	W	ERA	WHIP	K/9	BB/9	GB%	FIP	xFIP	SIERRA
Player A	320	156	13	3.67	1.22	6.7	2.5	51.2%	4.00	3.84	3.87
Player B	206	161	10	3.10	1.25	6.3	3.0	41.8%	4.60	4.44	4.44
Player C	273	35	16	2.86	1.09	6.1	1.6	40.5%	3.51	3.96	4.06
Player D	178	154	13	3.47	1.26	7.0	3.1	44.3%	3.43	3.95	4.14
Player E	218	205	13	3.78	1.29	7.0	3.3	61.2%	3.85	3.76	3.77
Player F	144	142	10	3.45	1.19	7.6	2.1	51.0%	3.42	3.39	3.43
Player G	213	259	11	4.03	1.25	7.0	2.6	58.8%	3.67	3.54	3.51
Player H	221	145	16	3.62	1.21	5.1	2.4	55.5%	3.78	4.10	4.14
Player I	241	483	11	4.56	1.33	6.1	3.0	47.6%	4.65	4.43	4.39
Player J	204	293	12	4.67	1.22	7.4	2.7	43.1%	4.75	4.14	3.96
10 Player Mean Stats	222	203	12.5	3.72	1.23	6.6	2.6	49.5%	3.97	3.96	3.97
Player A Rank	10th	5th	T-3rd	6th	4th	6th	4th	4th	8th	4th	4th

Player	Hand	LHP PA	RHP PA	PointsPerPA	LHP PointsPerPA - RHP PointsPerPA
Mike Trout				1.68
Justin Morneau	L	347	571	1.66	0.69
Shin-Soo Choo	L	458	874	1.62	0.87
Brandon Moss	L	63	260	1.60	0.51
Joe Mauer	L	453	772	1.57	0.56
Andre Ethier	L	417	786	1.57	0.91
Carl Crawford	L	266	522	1.53	0.52
Buster Posey				1.51

Player	Hand	LHP PA	RHP PA	PointsPerPA	LHP PointsPerPA - RHP PointsPerPA
Andrew McCutchen				1.46
Luke Scott	L	209	652	1.45	0.66
Anthony Rizzo	L	107	261	1.43	0.80
Wilson Betemit	B	184	507	1.39	0.56
Pedro Alvarez	L	281	691	1.34	0.54
Matthew Joyce	L	132	591	1.33	0.80
Lance Berkman	B	112	466	1.31	0.78
John Jaso	L	111	654	1.30	0.87
Garrett Jones	L	311	858	1.30	0.65
Ryan Doumit	B	309	675	1.29	0.57
David DeJesus	L	222	754	1.28	0.65
Pablo Sandoval				1.27

Player	Hand	LHP PA	RHP PA	PointsPerPA	LHP PointsPerPA - RHP PointsPerPA
Chase Headley				1.26
Seth Smith	L	135	704	1.24	0.98
Will Venable	L	135	780	1.23	0.51
Eric Chavez	L	49	386	1.22	1.22
Jason Kipnis	L	241	431	1.21	0.58
Adam Lind	L	241	725	1.20	1.08
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	76	402	1.15	0.65
Dewayne Wise	L	83	274	1.14	0.51
Derek Jeter				1.14