August second base rankings

Instead of using Oliver’s projections, as we did for the first two installments of the August rest of season rankings, we will be using ZiPS’ ROS projections from here on out. Hopefully this will iron out some of the quirks.

Most fantasy rankings are forged on “gut calls” and the whimsical notions of whoever is compiling the list. Some experts don’t pay for saves, some don’t pay for steals, some wait on pitching, some value upside, some value reliability, and so on. While it might be nice to see plenty of different opinions, it probably doesn’t truly help unless you understand the biases of each individual ranker. This is why some of the writers here at The Hardball Times have created their own, objective valuation methods, outlined here and here (reading, or at least skimming, these introductory articles will give you a much better understanding of the rankings that follow and should help to answer most potential questions).

In accompaniment with Oliver’s ZiPS’ rest-of-season forecasts, we will use these objective formulas to create objective rankings. You may not agree with a particular rank, but you will know how the ranking was calculated and you won’t have to guess what the ranker was thinking. This should make adding your own personal adjustments and biases much easier. And perhaps this type of ranking will introduce some potential buys and sells that you may have otherwise overlooked.

These rankings will assume a 12-team league in adjusting for league average. The ordering of players, however, is unaffected; players will rank in identical order for leagues of all sizes.

Previous installments:
{exp:list_maker}Catchers
First Basemen {/exp:list_maker}

Num
Name
AB
R
HR
RBI
SB
AVG
rPAA (ROS)
EYES (ROS)
Full Season*
1
Robinson Cano
225
35
10
36
2
0.302
1.27
2.13
11.83
2
Ian Kinsler
214
36
8
27
10
0.271
1.06
1.57
11.24
3
Brandon Phillips
218
32
7
31
6
0.284
0.77
1.24
10.46
4
Jose Altuve
221
29
3
21
11
0.294
0.46
0.78
9.61
5
Neil Walker
213
29
6
32
4
0.277
0.32
0.55
9.22
6
Dustin Pedroia
199
29
6
24
6
0.286
0.30
0.52
9.16
7
Jason Kipnis
214
31
6
27
7
0.262
0.28
0.40
9.10
8
Ben Zobrist
188
31
7
27
6
0.255
0.22
0.29
8.95
9
Aaron Hill
197
26
6
26
4
0.279
-0.01
0.02
8.32
10
Danny Espinosa
218
30
7
24
7
0.234
-0.16
-0.42
7.91
11
Dan Uggla
201
32
9
29
1
0.234
-0.18
-0.33
7.84
12
Howie Kendrick
197
25
5
23
5
0.274
-0.23
-0.35
7.71
13
Kelly Johnson
189
26
7
22
5
0.238
-0.45
-0.86
7.09
14
Kyle Seager
197
26
4
24
4
0.264
-0.46
-0.65
7.08
15
Emilio Bonifacio
169
24
1
10
13
0.266
-0.53
-0.90
6.89
16
Rickie Weeks
177
26
7
20
4
0.243
-0.54
-0.93
6.86
17
Dustin Ackley
209
29
4
18
5
0.249
-0.68
-1.00
6.47
18
Mike Aviles
170
20
4
21
5
0.265
-0.70
-1.15
6.42
19
Darwin Barney
209
26
2
18
4
0.273
-0.77
-1.01
6.22
20
Chase Utley
131
20
5
19
4
0.26
-0.79
-1.30
6.18
21
Omar Infante
178
21
3
18
3
0.281
-0.88
-1.25
5.94
22
Gordon Beckham
190
25
5
21
2
0.247
-0.89
-1.36
5.90
23
Jemile Weeks
201
26
1
15
8
0.249
-0.93
-1.40
5.79
24
Steve Lombardozzi
205
22
2
16
5
0.268
-0.98
-1.45
5.64
25
Daniel Murphy
157
17
2
21
2
0.293
-1.00
-1.44
5.59
26
Marco Scutaro
189
22
3
16
3
0.265
-1.09
-1.61
5.34
27
DJ LeMahieu
159
15
1
17
3
0.296
-1.21
-1.77
5.02
28
Tyler Greene
143
19
3
14
7
0.231
-1.21
-2.04
5.02
29
Ryan Theriot
180
21
 
14
5
0.272
-1.24
-1.78
4.93
30
Ryan Roberts
154
19
4
17
5
0.227
-1.24
-2.09
4.93
31
Jordany Valdespin
140
15
3
13
6
0.257
-1.26
-2.10
4.87
32
Orlando Hudson
151
22
3
17
3
0.238
-1.29
-1.98
4.81
33
Pedro Ciriaco
131
16
1
15
6
0.26
-1.31
-2.08
4.75
34
Sean Rodriguez
147
19
4
17
4
0.224
-1.34
-2.21
4.67
35
Maicer Izturis
126
16
2
13
5
0.262
-1.36
-2.15
4.61
36
Alexi Amarista
163
18
2
16
4
0.252
-1.38
-2.15
4.56
37
Daniel Descalso
157
21
2
16
2
0.255
-1.40
-2.06
4.50
38
Mark Ellis
141
18
2
13
4
0.255
-1.44
-2.22
4.40
39
Ruben Tejada
172
20
1
14
2
0.273
-1.44
-2.05
4.39
40
Alexi Casilla
126
17
1
11
6
0.254
-1.46
-2.30
4.32

*Full season = the raw (non-adjusted) full season pace roto score using the roto points-above-replacement method. This is, essentially, the amount of expected roto points each player would score above an empty spot in a lineup over a full season.

Analysis

Jose Altuve— I like Jose Altuve a lot, and ZiPS does, too. He produces his value in the three categories—runs, steals and batting average—that many fantasy owners seem to value less, but this doesn’t mean that those categories count less.

While Altuve won’t drive in many runs hitting atop an abysmal Astros lineup, he does have some power—five home runs with a .124 ISO—so he shouldn’t be a complete black hole in the home run category. Think Starlin Castro at second base, with a little less power, and a little more speed.

Altuve makes a lot of contact and has drastically improved his plate discipline upon what he did in 2011. He cut his swing rate by 12 percent, and is chasing at far less pitches outside the zone. This has helped him nearly triple his walk rate, albeit only up to 5.9 percent. Altuve, though, has a blossoming skill set and doesn’t look in immanent danger of dropping off in the final two months of the season. I’d probably still take Pedroia over him, but I really like the aggressive ranking here.

Chase Utley— ZiPS’ projection for Utley is very cautious, calling for just 131 more at bats (35 games). The trepidation is not without merit, however, as Utley has played in only 56.8 percent of the Phillies’ games over the past three seasons.

He missed 43 games in 2010 with a torn ligament in his right thumb. In 2011, he missed the team’s first 45 games with right knee problems, but did play 103 of the remaining 117 games after returning. This year, he lost 76 games to left knee issues, but has played decently since his return (.333 wOBA). Those are three pretty serious injuries, but that’s the complete list of Utley’s DL stints, not just over the past three seasons, but since the 2007 season. What I am trying to say is that Utley doesn’t yo-yo on and off the disabled list, and none of his injuries have been reoccurring issues. Once he heals, he is usually good to go, at least for a while.

Since returning from his latest DL trip, Utley has hit .236/.330/.449, but that line is accompanied by five home runs and three stolen bases, a good sign his knees are feeling well.

If I were to arbitrarily adjust Utley’s ZiPS’ projection for at-bats, I would bump it up to around 171, which would give him a rest of season projection of 26/7/25/5/.260. This would raise his expected roto values to -0.07 (rPAA) and -0.20 (EYES), and would bump him up to 10th among second basemen.