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Thursday, September 02, 2010

Average and prime year projections, part 2

Posted by Matt Hagen at 1:18am

Jaime Garcia / SP / St. Louis
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 3.53 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 154 SO / 191 H / 70 BB
Prime Year Projection:
214 IP / 3.15 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 9 L / 177 SO / 196 H / 63 BB

Christian Friedrich / SP / Colorado
Average Year Projection:
203 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 168 SO / 194 H / 68 BB
Prime Year Projection:
212 IP / 3.30 ERA / 1.21 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 183 SO / 194 H / 62 BB

Justin Smoak / 1B / Seattle
Average Year Projection:
.301 / .391 / 24 HR / 35 2B / 1 3B / 94 RBI / 84 R / 80 BB / 118 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.316 / .412 / 29 HR / 36 2B / 1 3B / 105 RBI / 96 R / 88 BB / 109 SO / 3 SB / 1 CS

Jhoulys Chacin / SP/RP / Colorado
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 3.84 ERA / 1.32 WHIP / 13 W / 10 L / 175 SO / 190 H / 72 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.42 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 194 SO / 192 H / 65 BB

Domonic Brown / OF / Philadelphia
Average Year Projection:
.274 / .332 / 17 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 87 RBI / 85 R / 47 BB / 123 SO / 16 SB / 6 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.288 / .352 / 22 HR / 38 2B / 4 3B / 97 RBI / 97 R / 53 BB / 115 SO / 18 SB / 5 CS

Kyle Gibson / SP / Minnesota
Average Year Projection:
196 IP / 3.94 ERA / 1.33 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 167 SO / 193 H / 68 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.52 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 15 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 196 H / 62 BB

Wade Davis / SP / Tampa Bay
Average Year Projection:
196 IP / 3.90 ERA / 1.36 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 160 SO / 193 H / 73 BB
Prime Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.51 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 15 W / 10 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 69 BB

Jordan Lyles / SP / Houston
Average Year Projection:
202 IP / 4.04 ERA / 1.30 WHIP / 13 W / 12 L / 173 SO / 197 H / 65 BB
Prime Year Projection:
210 IP / 3.60 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 198 H / 60 BB

Mike Minor / SP / Atlanta
Average Year Projection:
201 IP / 4.11 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 179 SO / 199 H / 64 BB
Prime Year Projection:
210 IP / 3.63 ERA / 1.24 WHIP / 14 W / 10 L / 192 SO / 201 H / 60 BB

Logan Morrison / OF/1B / Florida
Average Year Projection:
.307 / .391 / 21 HR / 40 2B / 2 3B / 90 RBI / 83 R / 87 BB / 108 SO / 2 SB / 1 CS
Prime Year Projection:
.320 / .412 / 27 HR / 41 2B / 3 3B / 101 RBI / 95 R / 93 BB / 99 SO / 3 SB / 2 CS

Jenrry Mejia / SP/RP / NY Mets
Average Year Projection:
195 IP / 4.21 ERA / 1.35 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 170 SO / 193 H / 71 BB
Prime Year Projection:
207 IP / 3.76 ERA / 1.27 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 185 SO / 197 H / 65 BB

Aroldis Chapman / SP / Cincinnati
Average Year Projection:
199 IP / 4.24 ERA / 1.37 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 186 SO / 195 H / 77 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.77 ERA / 1.28 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 200 SO / 197 H / 70 BB

Casey Kelly / SP / Boston
Average Year Projection:
198 IP / 4.25 ERA / 1.34 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 176 SO / 196 H / 70 BB
Prime Year Projection:
209 IP / 3.79 ERA / 1.26 WHIP / 14 W / 11 L / 188 SO / 199 H / 65 BB

Mike Leake / SP / Cincinnati
Average Year Projection:
207 IP / 4.20 ERA / 1.29 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 154 SO / 204 H / 64 BB
Prime Year Projection:
216 IP / 3.78 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 166 SO / 206 H / 59 BB

Alex White / SP / Cleveland
Average Year Projection:
206 IP / 4.18 ERA / 1.31 WHIP / 13 W / 11 L / 148 SO / 204 H / 66 BB
Prime Year Projection:
217 IP / 3.74 ERA / 1.23 WHIP / 14 W / 12 L / 162 SO / 206 H / 60 BB

Send Matt questions at .(JavaScript must be enabled to view this email address).


Comments

Mike Podhorzer said...

Since you never answered in the initial post, where are these projections coming from? Are they just your own opinion and entered manually or some projection system?

The Aroldis Chapman projection seems quite suspicious. An average year walk rate of just 3.5? And a prime year strikeout rate of just 8.6?

Also, are the prime year projections just the best marks in each category throughout the player’s career or does it represent the player’s stat line during just one season dubbed as his best?

These stat lines are pretty meaningless without knowing the answers to these questions and clarifying exactly what the numbers represent and how they were generated.

Posted 09/02  at  09:43 AM
Milby said...

Agreed Mike. 

I love to see these sort of projections, but without context it’s difficult to understand what we’re looking at.

Matt, would you mind giving us an idea of where these numbers came from?

Posted 09/02  at  12:06 PM
Matt Hagen said...

Whoa, take it easy.

These stats are simply one man’s opinion.

They are based on analyzing major league norms, drawing comparisons between each minor leaguer and major leaguers with a similar skill set, each players minor league numbers and skill set, and my gut feeling.

Average year projection is what to expect in a normal, non prime year.  Prime year projection would be the numbers I’m expecting in a prime year, typically 27-31.

I hope this helps.  I spend a lot of time drawing comparisons and finding a balance between optimism and pessimism.

Posted 09/02  at  12:09 PM
Nutlaw said...

Also, all of your pitchers are projected with nearly identical hit rates (okay) and walk rates (not okay). There really isn’t very strong variation in those numbers.

Posted 09/02  at  12:09 PM
Matt Hagen said...

Nutlaw, if you look at a list of the top ERAs in the major leagues, there simply isn’t a lot of variation in walk rate, apart from some extreme cases.  And I don’t expect any of these pitchers to be extreme cases.

Posted 09/02  at  12:15 PM
Chris said...

Chapman and Chacin having nearly identical BB rates? Outside of Chacin’s recent MLB games he has only one season of over 90+ IP where he posted a 3BB/9. Chapman who is known to over throw and be wild has 90+ IP in Cincy’s AAA affiliate with a 4.94BB/9.

Do you really think that Chacin’s history of solid walk rates will be countered by patient hitters at the MLB level and that Chapman will get himself under control? I don’t.

I do like the Morrison and Friedrich predictions though. Do you crunch any of these guys’ numbers with an MLE calculator?

Posted 09/02  at  01:41 PM
Travis said...

To defend Matt on the Chapman versus Chacin argument.  Chacin has been a professional pitcher for much longer and with each jump in level, his walk rate has increased, illustrating that more experienced hitters back off of his borderline stuff once they get a handle on what he’s throwing.

As for Chapman, he’s still so raw, it’s difficult to project what his walk-rate will be like.  Given Chapman’s raw talent and his ability to learn quickly (keep in mind he was only throwing 97-100 mph when Cincy signed him, and with a few minor tweaks to his delivery he’s ramped it up to 104 mph, this is an illustration that his delivery is as raw as it gets) one can speculate that he could significantly lower his walk-rate with time.

Posted 09/02  at  02:45 PM
Nick said...

An average year from Logan Morrison probably won’t consist of 22 HR. Maybe he’ll hit 20 in his prime, but he has really zero power right now. 1 in 100 AB’s, 6 in the minors this year…

Posted 09/02  at  09:17 PM
Chris said...

Travis:

To be fair, pre-2009 Chacin’s BB rate actually dropped at every level (R-A+) and he probably would have benefited by staying in AA for all of 2009 and learning better either A. better control or B. get ahead of guys with his fastball earlier.

Chacin is the type of pitcher that if he can command his fastball early in the game he will dominate you and he’s been showing that more and more this season. Other than his first outing back in the rotation in (Aug 17 against LAD) he’s posted a 3.15 BB rate in 20 IP. That to me looks a lot like his 2009 AA rate of 3.05.

However, Chapman does have experience with at least semi-pro level batters from the WBC and from his time in Cuba. This was taken from an article listing Chapman as the #2 prospect from the WBC written for Baseball America:  “In the past, Chapman has hit 102 mph during a Serie Nacional game. Chapman also throws a changeup, slider and curveball, but it’s the fastball that has scouts drooling.”

He’s been hitting over 100 for a while now, that’s not news, 105 MPH is impressive but can he consistently throw it for a strike? Can he throw it that hard again once he moves into a rotation? I doubt it. The hardest throwing starters in the game have trouble locating their fastballs when they really trying to reach back and throw some gas. Chapman’s abilities will be ‘enhanced’ as long as he’s in the bullpen because batters wont get the 2nd look and he will know he can reach back and really hurl the ball.

Chapman is young though and if treated carefully could really be an epic pitcher for years to come. If he gets his control fixed he’s a front of the rotation guy, if not he’s an amazing reliever. If he can’t really get that third pitch nailed down he could be an ‘ace’ of a closer. It’s difficult to project him but I estimate his BB’s to be much higher. I’d say that for a non-prime year 89 BB’s in 200 IP is realistic while I’d guess about 67 could be very realistic for Chacin in a non-prime year.

Posted 09/03  at  02:08 AM
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Posted 02/03  at  06:50 AM
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