Friday, February 29, 2008

Catchers: Overrated or underrated?

Replacement level

Baseball is a zero sum game. One team always wins at the expense of another. It is not possible for one team to win without another losing. In order to win, a team must be able to produce more runs (or prevent runs from scoring) than the opposition. Its success in producing wins is directly tied to its ability to produce more runs than its opponent. Any competitive advantage a team has must, in some way, translate to better on-field performance to be valuable.

A commodity which is easily available to all teams at no or low cost confers no competitive advantage, and therefore is of minimal value. Thus, baseball value comes from scarcity.

Fantasy application

Where to take catchers

ROSTER: With regard to position scarcity and acquiring a strong catcher in your fantasy lineup: Who do you think will provide more fantasy value in 2008, Russell Martin with an average draft position of 30, or Jorge Posada at pick No. 90? Is Martin five rounds more valuable?

CARTY: I love Russell Martin this year. I’ve taken him as high as round three in one mock draft (which was my first of the year, actually), and I believe that he nets you positive value in that spot. However, because it’s the third round, the margin for value is pretty small. Even if you take him at No. 30 and you have him ranked at No. 20, the value you get there is limited. If you have a guy like Posada or McCann valued at No. 30 or No. 35 and you take him at No. 90, you’re getting a whole lot more value there.

Like I said about pitchers, catchers too are undervalued as a group. While I think it’s a mistake to take Santana in round one (despite him having positive value there), I also feel like it’s a mistake to take Victor or Russell in round three or four (despite them having positive value there). Because the position as a whole is undervalued, you can pick up exponentially better value as you move down a few rounds (as long as you don’t wait too long) and the gap between actual value and market value (where you ultimately take him) expands.

This logic doesn’t really apply to, say, outfielders. If you get your No. 20 player (who is an outfielder) at No. 30, your margin for value is small, the same as it was with Russell Martin when we put him in this situation. The difference is that at pick No. 90, you would have to have some wildly different rankings than everyone else to pick up your No. 30 or No. 35 player who is an outfielder. More likely, you’ll get maybe your No. 70 player who is an outfielder. Because the market value of outfielders is closer to where their true value lies, you don’t reap that benefit by waiting longer to take them, as you would by waiting on Posada or McCann. Because of this, I don’t plan on taking Martin or Victor in any of my leagues this year, but I do plan on getting a guy like McCann or Posada a bit later on.

Concluding thoughts