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Monday, February 01, 2010Clone Wars: Matt Wieters and Mark TeixeiraPosted by Troy Patterson at 4:42am
Wieters didn't quite have his power going in his first year as he totaled only a .124 ISO. That was much lower than expected after his PECOTA number was .244. I think expecting that much power in his first season and after starting at Triple-A is a lot to ask. Teixeira did not have trouble in his first year, hitting 26 homers with a .221 ISO. While Teixeira had a quicker start to his career, they had more similarities from their minor league numbers. They each spent a first season split between High-A and Double-A to start their careers with Wieters spending 39 games at Triple-A in his second season. During that first season they totaled the following stat lines. Teixeria: .318/.413/.592 Wieters: .355/.454/.600 Wieters compiled that line in 530 plate appearances and Teixeira only had 375. That is quite a line for Wieters and gives reason to believe the hype. At the plate both players have a similar approach. O-Swing% Z-Swing% Swing% O-Contact% Z-Contact% Contact% Zone% F-Strike% Wieters 25.4 % 70.2 % 47.1 % 61.2 % 83.7 % 77.5 % 48.5 % 53.0 % Teixeira 23.8 % 74.6 % 49.2 % 37.7 % 87.8 % 75.6 % 49.9 % 57.6 % This is rookie season numbers for both, and show how close they are in plate discipline and contact skills. Wieters is better in this sample at contact on pitches out of the zone and slightly better in overall contact. They both had walk rates around 7 percent and strikeout rates around 22-24 percent. Obviously Teixeira has had some different numbers since, but in everything but power they were very close in their rookie years. Heading into 2010, the projections systems don't like Wieters to reach the second season numbers of Teixeira. The power again seems to be a concern with Bill James giving him the highest SLG at .484 where Teixeira posted a .560 SLG in his second season. Being only 24 this season Wieters has plenty of improvement headed his way as he continues to grow. Hitting only 20 homers this year would seem to be low for him after the power he showed in the minors. The projection systems seem to weight the rookie season more and place his power closer to the 2009 numbers. Perhaps the comparison will lose some basis going forward, but the only failing of Wieters in year No. 1 was his power swing. His home park shouldn't hurt him at all and of course his power will come as he grows. For fantasy purposes this all makes Wieters an extreme value again. He should be one of the top catchers off the board in 2010 and with a comparable like Teixeira it makes sense to value him there. Check out more work from Troy at RotoSavants and Fire Brand of the AL. You can contact him with questions or recommendations email me
Will said...
Is it good or bad to have high outside-contact rates? Do those hits lead to better or worse results? Either way, Weiters has more of those, more o-swings, fewer Z-swings, lower Z-contact, faced fewer f-strikes and had a lower zone% ... isn’t that significantly different, if taken together? Posted 02/01 at 08:47 PM
LA2 said...
When he came up, Wieters made it clear that he was concentrating on being a good catcher for a very young starting rotation and that he was confident that the hitting would come around. His strong numbers in Sept/Oct. (.425 OBP, .511 SLG in 96 At-bats) may have been the beginning of the surge to offensive potency that everyone was expecting. Posted 02/02 at 11:01 PM
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I’m surprised you didn’t mention that since both Teixeira and Wieters went to my alma mater Georgia Tech, they should have comparably high performance on PECOTA intelligence stats. Although maybe we could dig up their GPAs and find out for sure.